All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
11-16-17 | Tulsa v. South Florida -22 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-8 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-5 in the AAC) will visit Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Thursday night to face the 8-1 South Florida Bulls (5-1 in the AAC). Tulsa's fallen a long way from last year's 10-3 team which destroyed Central Michigan 55-10 in the Miami Beach Bowl. Tulsa limps in having lost seven of its last eight and checks is 0-5 on the road in 2017. USF owned a nation-best 12-game winning streak and had scored 30-plus points in 24 staright games but lost at home 28-24 to Houston on Oct. 28. However, the good news is, USF still controls its own destiny (more later). Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane rely on a rushing attack that averages 248.7 YPG to score 31.0 PPG (50th). However, that isn't quite enough when the team's D has allowed 38.0 PPG (12st) on 547.5 YPG (128th). All that said, let's give Tulsa some credit. Five of its last seven losses have been decided by 10 or less points, as Tulsa is just one of those teams that competes hard but just can't put together a complete 60 minutes. South Florida: Senior QB Quinton Flowers registered a school-record 516 yards of total offense last time out against UConn and now needs just one rushing TD to become the sixth FBS player with 60 passing TDs and 40 rushing TDs in a career. Flowers threw for 385 yards while rushing for another 131 against UConn and needs 357 to pass Matt Grothe (10,875) for the school record in total offense. He's passed for 1,955 yards with 15 TDs and just 4 INTs on the season, while adding 751 RY (5.2 YPC) and 9 TDs. RBs Tice (780 YR / 9 TDDs) and Johnson (631 YR / 7 TDS) help make USF the 7th-best running team in the nation, averaging 276.7 YPG. The offense gets all the 'pub,' averaging 39.1 YPG (7th) but the defense has more than held its own, allowing 19.9 PPG (23rd) on 319.8 YPG (18th). The pick: Tulsa comes in 8-3 ATS as a road dog since 2015 and USF does have a "Black Friday" showdown looming at UCF on Nov. 24th. Naturally, USF must beat UCF in that one and a win the following week in the AAC championship game would almost assuredly lead to a New Year's Six Bowl bid but first things first. USF has to "take care of business" here in its regular season home finale against Tulsa. Sure, it's a lot of points but despite that four-point home loss to Houston, USF has outscored opponents at home by 35.6-to-15.6 PPG. Note that Tulsa has allowed 46.6 PPG on the road. Lay it and make USF an 8* play. |
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11-15-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Hornets | Top | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Are the Cavs finally rounding into form? We do know this. Cleveland enters tonight's game at Charlotte having won consecutive games for the first time since opening the season 2-0. Monday's win over the Knicks in MSG was a special one, as the Cavs overcame a 23-point deficit en route to a 104-101 victory. Still, the Cavs are a hard-to-believe 7-7 on the season and look for their first three-game winning streak of the season tonight against the 5-7 Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets 'limp' home after an 0-4 road trip that ended with a 90-87 setback at Boston on Friday (team's lowest point total of the season). Cleveland: LBJ got into a war of words with Knicks center Enes Kanter during and after Monday's trip to Madison Square Garden but got the last laugh with the comeback win, scoring 23 points, grabbing nine rebounds and handing out 12 assists. Here's a shocker, James is logging a league-high 38.1 MPG while averaging 28.1-7.4-8.8. James got some help on Monday from SG Kyle Korver, who scored 21 points (19 in the fourth quarter while making five 3-pointers!). However, Korver is averaging a modest 10.9 PPG. Love (17.6 & 10.4) is said to be unhappy about his move to center but he's the only other regular contributor. Rose has played in just half of the team's 14 games and Green (10.5) is the only player also averaging in double digits. Defense has been a major issue for the Cavs, as they are allowing 112.5 PPG on 47.5% shooting (both rank 28th in the league!). Charlotte: The Hornets are planning (hoping?) on guard Nicolas Batum (elbow) making his season debut on Wednesday after he spent the last three days practicing with the team. “If it’s my call, yes,” Batum told the Charlotte Observer after practice on Tuesday of playing against the Cavaliers. “If the coaches and the training staff are OK with it, it should be a go tomorrow." Batum averaged career highs of 15.1 points and 5.9 assists in 2016-17 while adding 6.2 rebounds and 1.1 steals. PG Walker is off an All Star season but comes off a road trip in which he shot 33.9 percent from the floor, including 5-of-25 from three-point range. His scoring is down this season (21.7) but Lamb's is up at 16.7, as he's gotten more opportunities with Batum sidelined. Then there is FA center Dwight Howard, averaging 14.4 & 13.2 but has he really helped the Hornets "get better" as a team. The pick: I realize that the Cavs are just 4-9-1 ATS through their first 14 games but one has to admit, this team is way better than that. Meanwhile, the Hoinets don't look improved at all and Howard seems happy putting up solid (excellent?) numbers, while playing without any pressure to win (arguably, the story of his career). The Cavs seem ready to me to shake out of their doldrums, Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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11-14-17 | Purdue v. Marquette +4.5 | Top | 86-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-0 Purdue Boilermakers were ranked 19th in the AP's first regular season poll (released Monday) and will travel to Milwaukee on Tuesday night to take on the Marquette Golden Eagles, who defeated Mount St. Mary's 80-59 on Friday,to improve to 3-1 in season openers under Steve Wojciechowski. Marquette is off a 19-win season which included a loss in the NCAA's first round. As for Purdue, the Boilermakers are off a 26-win season which include winning the Big Ten regular season title and a trip the the NCAA's Sweet 16. Purdue faces its first real test of the season tonight, as it plays at Marquette in the Gavitt Tipoff Games series. It's the first-ever meeting between the schools. Purdue: The Boilermakers return starters from their 2016 Big Ten championship team, making them as experienced as any team in the country. Sure, Caleb Swanigan (18.5 & 12.5) is a huge loss but 6-8 senior forward Vince Edwards (12.6 & 4.9 LY) is the only active player in the nation with at least 1,000 points, 500 rebounds and 300 assists. The Boilermakers have scored a combined 216 points in defeating Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 105-74 in their opener and dismantling Chicago State 111-42 on Sunday. Chicago State's 21.5 percent shooting marked the lowest shooting percentage by a Purdue opponent in school history, while the Boilermakers scored 100 or more points in back-to-back games for the first time in 43 year. Guards Edwards (20.2) and Mathias (18.0 $ 4.5 APG) lead in scoring from the perimeter with Edwards (14.5 & 8.8) and the 7-2 Hass (12.0 & 6.5) taking care of business inside. Marquette: The Golden Eagles defeated Mount St. Mary's 80-59 on Friday but led by as many as 37 points and had four players score in double figures. Andrew Rowsey is the the team's lone senior and the guard led with 23 points but he was on the bench for much of the second half, enabling Mount St. Mary's to chip away at the deficit. Fellow guards Cheatham (13 & 5) and Howard (11) joined Rowsey in double digits, as did the 6-10 Heldt. The pick: Matt Painter enters his 12th season at Purdue and expectations are rightly high but after two 'cupcakes,' the going gets much tougher here at the Bradley Center. Take the points and make Marquette a 10* play. |
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11-14-17 | Ohio -13 v. Akron | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bobcats were upset at home back on Oct. 7 (on Homecoming, no less), losing 26-23 to Central Michigan as a 10 1.2-point favorite. That left them 4-2 overall (1--1 in the MAC). However, Ohio has won four in a row since, including last week's 38-10 rout of Toledo in Athens, dominating teh Rockets by out-gaining them 532-316 in yards. Ohio (8-2, 5-1 in the MAC) now travels to InfoCision Stadium in Akron to take the Zips, who are coming off a 24-14 defeat at the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks as an 11.5 point road underdog. Akron was out-gained 420-273 and fell to 5-5 overall but at 4-2 in the MAC East, not out of it. The Bobcats would clinch the East title with a win but an Akron win would leave the teams tied at 5-2 apiece. Both would have one game remaining but Akron would own the head-to-head tie-breaker! Ohio: Frank Solich has done a remarkable job since coming to Ohio back in 2005 (more later) and while his teams have typically been known as relying on defense, it's Ohio's offense, especially its running game, that has led thetetam to its 8-2 mark in 2017. The Bobcats are averaging 44.8 PPG during their four-game winnings streak, upping their scoring average to 40.9 PPG for the season, ranking 7th in the nation. The team ran for 393 yards in the win over Toldeo and Ohio's ground game is averaging 250.8 YPG (12th). RB Quelette leads the way with 897 yards, QB Rourke has 668 RY plus a team-best 17 TDs and Brown, after rushing for 142 vs. Toledo, checks in with 600 RY. Rourke also has 1,643 passing yards with 14 TD and just four INTs. Ohio's defense is solid, if not spectacular, holding opponents to 24.1 PPFG (45th). Akron: Terry Bowdon took over at Akron in 2012 and promptly went 1-11. However, he led the Zips to the school's second-ever bowl bid in 2015, finishing 8-5 after winning the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. This year's team may be just 5-5 but as noted at the top, is still very much alive for an East title by winning here at home. Akron can't match Ohio's running game, as the Zips average only 105.5 YPG on the ground (124th). In fact, Akron is averaging only 21.8 PPG (110th), about half of Ohio's U's scoring average. Defensively, the Zips are allowing 441.8 YPG (106th) but have somehow managed to hold opponents to a more reasonable 24.9 PPG (ranks 51st!). Bowden suspended starting QB Thomas Woodson for a violation of team rules and freshman Kato Nelson got his first collegiate start vs. Miami-Ohio. He threw for 218 yards and one TD but with Akron’s ground game finishing with just 55 yards, he had a tough hill to climb. The pick: Woodson's availability for Tuesday has not been announced but indications are he will be available to play in this do-or-die game. Woodson or no Woodson, the fact remains that the Bobcats have won nine straight games over the Zips, including winning four straight in Akron, holding the Zips to two TDs and just 42 total points. Solich has been a 'savior' for Ohio U football and in this, his 13th season, will lead Ohio to its ninth bowl game. When he took over, the Bobcats had only been to two bowl games in school-history, most recently in 1968. Solich is 99-69 at Ohio, so a win here would be No. 100, which would clinch an East title. This is Solich's best team and no way the Bobcats stumble here at Akron. Make Ohio U an 8* play. |
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11-13-17 | Nuggets v. Blazers -1 | Top | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Denver Nuggets have won three in a row (and seven of nine) to reach 8-5. The offense is clicking, as all five starters scored in double figures in Saturday's 125-107 home win over the Orlando Magic. Denver will make a brief one-game road trip to visit Northwest Division rival Portland on Monday with the Trail Blazers checking at 6-6, Denver: The Nuggets' backcourt duo of Barton (15.1) and Murray (12.8) combined for 58 points against the Magic plus center Nikola Jokic (17.2 & 12.0) flirted with a triple-double, scoring 12 points with 17 rebounds and nine assists. Harris (12.4) and Mudiay (12.2) give Denver four guards averaging in double figures on the season plus PF Millsap (15.5 & 6.5) is a quality veteran sidekick up front for Jokic. Portland: After a 101-97 home loss to injury-riddled Brooklyn on Friday night, Portland checks in just 2-4 in games decided by four points or fewer. "What makes it so frustrating is we could very easily be 10-2," PG Damian Lillard said after the Nets game. "It makes losses like this hurt even more, because you've already let some games slip that we should have won. We shouldn't be having our heads down. We've been in worse situations. But being here is our fault. We've had our chances." Lillard is averaging 25.2 PPG on the season but is mired in a bit of a shooting slump and failed to reach 20 points in either of the last two games. Lillard's left hand got banged up in the final minute against the Nets but he said, " I don't plan on missing any games. I think I'll be all right." His backcourt partner McCollum (22.9) give Portalnd one of teh league's highest-scoring duos plus as noted at the top, Nurkic has sure found a home in Portland (he's averaging 15.6 & 7.3 this season). The pick: Sure, Denver's off back-to-backs wins (and covers) but note the team was just 3-8 ATS before those consecutive covers. Portland has also had its own ATS woes (just 2-6 at home) but the Blazers took three of the four meetings last season (now six of the last seven in the series). Also, don't downplay the effect Nurkic may have here. When the teams last met last March, Nurkic went for 33 points (made 12 of 15 shots from the floor & and 9 of 11 from the FT line) plus added 15 rebounds in a 122-113 victory over his former team. Make Portland a 10* play. |
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11-13-17 | Dolphins +10 v. Panthers | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -135 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-4 Miami Dolphins will visit Bank of America Stadium.in Charlotte to take on the 6-3 Carolina Panthers as Week 10 concludes with the latest MNF clash. The Dolphins have lost back-to-back games and a third straight loss would pretty much end any 'dream' of the team staying within shouting range of the Pats (now 7-2) in the AFC East. In contrast, the Panthers are seeking a third straight win in hopes of keeping pace with the red-hot Saints who won their seventh in a row to move to 7-2 in the NFC South. The Panthers are in for a 'dog fight' in their division in 2017, as the Atlanta Falcons are also lurking at 5-4. Miami: QB Jay Cutler returned last weekend after missing a game with cracked ribs. He had his best game of the season last Sunday, despite the Dolphins falling at home 27-24 to the Raiders. Cutler completed 34 of 42 for 311 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. However, he's averaging only 170.0 YPG through the air and has 10 TDs and five INTs on the season, for a QB rating of 87.4. Miami 'traded away" its running game when it shipped Pro Bowl selection Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia. He owns 75% of the team's rushing yards in 2017 and even including Ajayi's contributions, Miami ranks 30th in rushing at 77,6 YPG. With Ajayi gone, Kenyan Drake is the team's leading rusher with just 94 yards on the season. The Dolphins ranks last in both scoring (14.5 PPG) and total offense (270.2 YPG). Miami's defense is middle-of-the-pack, allowing 22.4 PPG (17th). Carolina: Cam Newton is pretty much a "one-man show" in Carolina when it comes to the team's offense. However, he's way off his MVP-like performance of the 2015 season. He's averaging only 202.1 YPG with 10 TDs and 11 INTs, giving him even a lower QB rating (78.4) than Cutler. Newton ran or 86 yards in Carolina's 20-17 win over Atlanta last Sunday but the Panthers were likely happier that rookie RB Christian McCaffrey picked up a season-high 66 rushing yards plus his first rushing score last week. "A lot had to do with the blocking up front," head coach Ron Rivera said. "I thought we got our hands on them and we were able to push and Christian was able to make some cuts." McCaffrey leads the team with 54 catches out of the backfield, although WR Devin Funchess also has stepped up as the team's top wide-out since Kelvin Benjamin was traded to Buffalo (Funchess had five catches vs. Atlanta and now has 38 on the season). The Carolina D is playing at a high level and is the reason the Panthers are 6-3. The Panthers are allowing a league-low 274.1 YPG overall, while allowing a modest 17.7 PPG (3rd-best). The pick: McCaffrey's performance was encouraging last Sunday but where has he been all year? Cam Newton continues to carry too heavy of a burden for this offense and it can't go unnoticed that the Panthers may have won two straight but they enter this contest having averaged just 13.3 PPG in their last three games (not a team one wants to lay big points with!). The Dolphins are coming off their best offensive performance by far and let me also point out that Miami has had five games decided by six points or less, with three of its last four games featuring three-point margins. Does it matter that Miami is 4-1 SU all-time vs. Carolina, going 5-0 ATS? It doesn't hurt! Make Miami a 10* play. |
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11-12-17 | Texans +12 v. Rams | Top | 7-33 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The surprising LA Rams sit top the NFC West at 6-2, coming off a 4-12 season in 2016. The Texans won the AFC North with a 9-7 record in 2016 and after six weeks of the 2017 season, stood at 3-3. However, the emergence of rookie QB of Deshaun Watson had the Texans thinking playoffs again this year. Coming off a Week 7 bye, the Texans lost a 41-38 shootout to the Seahawks and then disaster struck in the days leading up to their Week 9 game with the Colts. Watson was lost for the season to a non-contact injury at practice. The Texans visit the LA Memorial Coliseum at just 3-5 and hardly look like a playoff contender, now. Houston: Tom Savage, who was given the Week 1 start over Watson, was back under center against the Colts and once again proved he's not ready for primetime. He completed 19 of 44 for 219 yards with one TD and no INTs but with a QB rating of 66.1. He's completed a poor 45.6% of his 57 pass attempts in 2017 and while he has not thrown an interception, he has just one TD pass (QB rating is 66.5). DeAndre Hopkins is a top-flight WR (51 catches for 692 yards with 8 TDs) but he needs a QB to get him the ball. Lamar Miller is the team's leading rusher with 483 yards but while Houston averages 132.8 YPG on the ground to rank 4th, Watson's 269 yards (on 7.2 YPC) were a big part of that. With J.J. Watt also out for the season, the once-proud Houston defense is now allowing 26.0 PPG, to rank 30th of 32 teams. LA Rams: Sean McVay has become a coaching prodigy in just a half-season and is being given most of the credit for Jared Goff's re-birth. The league's No. 1 draft choice in 2016, came off a rookie year in which he was 0-7 as a starter. However, Goff has led the Rams to a 6-2 record, completing 60.2 percent for an average of 245.3 YPG with 13 TDs and just 4 four INTs (QB Rating of 97.9). RB Gurley has sure been a huge help, rushing for 686 yards and seven TDs while catching 29 passes with three more TDs (his10 TDs are tops in the NFL). In all, the Rams top the NFL by scoring 32.9 PPG on 382.1 YPG, which ranks 3rd. The defense has sure not disappointed under DC Wade Phillips, holding opponents to 19.4 PPG (9th), after allowing 24.6 PPG in 2016. The pick: Clearly, the Rams are a team on the rise and one to be reckoned with in 2017. Meanwhile, the Texans need to find a QB quickly and they have signed Matt McGloin, T.J. Yates and Josh Johnson over the past two weeks. Johnson has not seen action in the NFL since appearing in two games with Cincinnati in 2013. but remains on the roster, McGloin, who played for Oakland from 2013-16, has since been released while Yates, who made seven starts in two previous stints with the club, is likely the best option. Here's the rub. The Rams are just 2-2 SU & ATS at home in 2017 plus they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games and 1-5 ATS versus a team with a losing record. Surprise, make Houston a 10* play. |
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11-12-17 | Massachusetts v. Harvard -10 | Top | 67-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Two Boston-area Massachusetts schools meet Sunday as UMass (situated in Amherst) of the A-10 will visit Cambridge to take on Harvard of the Ivy League. Both schools come in 1-0. Harvard defeated MIT 73-64 at home on Thursday ina sloppy win and UMass struggled to beat Division II UMass-Lowell 74-69 on the same night. UMass won last year's game 70-66 at home, although Harvard won the ATS 'battle,' as a 4 1/2-point underdog. UMass: The Minutemen are coming off a 15-18 season and lost three starters from last year's club. Unique McLean, a 6-2 freshman, and Rashaan Holloway, a 6-11 junior, shared the team lead with 12 points apiece in the team's unimpressive opening win. Also making contributions were the 6-10 Hines (11 & 13), PG Pipkins (11-7-5) and another guard, Anderson (9-4-5). UMass gave a very unsteady performance in the team's opener, trailing by two at the half , before eventually winning by only five points. The Minutemen shot 47.1% plus held their opponents to 39.2% shooting, but they also committed 15 turnovers and shot just 3-of-15 from beyond the arc. The Minutemen needed an 11-2 run to make it 66-58 with 2:31 to play to finally take control. Harvard; The Crimson are off seasons of 14 and 18 wins (well down from previous Amaker teams) but return four starters, including PG Bryce Aiken. Aiken had 12 points in the opener but the best efforts came from the 6-7 Towns (20 & 7) and the 6-9 Lewis (13 & 10). Big guard Justin Bassey added seven points to match his seven rebounds and a team-high four assists in the win. The pick: Harvard struggled in its opener but this is a good team with experienced players. The Crimson are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 as a favorite and have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Make Harvard an 8*! |
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11-12-17 | Saints -2.5 v. Bills | Top | 47-10 | Win | 100 | 64 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Few would have predicted that the Saints would be 6-2 mid-way through the 2017 season, considering New Orleans entered the season off three consecutive 7-9 seasons. What's more, the Saints opened 2017 at 0-2 but visit the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field in Orchard Park, NY on Sunday afternoon for this Week 10 game having gone 6-0 SU & ATS to surge to the top of the NFC South (Panthers are 6-3 and the Falcons 4-4). The Bills have also been a surprise in 2017 but are coming off a poor effort in Week 9's Thursday night game, losing 34-21 to the Jets. The loss doped Buffalo to 5-3 in the AFC East, one game back of teh 6-2 Pats. I doubt anyone, even teh Bills themselves, believe they out-last the Pats for the division crown but the Bills do currently own the final wild card spot in the AFC. New Orleans: Drew Brees completed 22 of his 27 pass attempts for 263 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the team's 30-10 win last Sunday over the Bucs. So what else is new for the ageless wonder? He enters the second half of the the 2017 completing 71.6% of his passes with 13 TDs and just four INTs (105.0 QB rating). Ingram quietly leads a running game averaging 122.8 YPG (7th), helping Brees lead the Saints to an average of 27.6 PPG (6th). The defense has been a mess the last few seasons but the team's stop unit continues to surprise, allowing just 19.4 PPG, which ranks 10th. Buffalo: No one quite seems sold on QB Tyrod Taylor but he threw for 285 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 29 of 40 passing, while also leading the Bills on the ground with 35 rushing yards and a rushing TD on six carries against the Jets. The Bills led the NFL in rushing in 2016 (164.4 YPG) but LeSean McCoy has had an up-and-down season so far, with a case in point being his 25-yard effort against the Jets, For the season, Buffalo is averaging 116.9 YPG on the ground, almost 50 yards per games less than last season (that's no small deal!). However, the defense has improved from allowing 23.6 PPG to just 18.6 PPG in 2017. The pick: I'm well aware that Buffalo is 4-0 SU at home but the Bills just can't establish a consistent running game like last season. Meanwhile, the Saints' "under the radar" running game, led by Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara, has given Brees a balance on offense that he hasn't had in years. I should also note that the swarming Saint “D,” has also made this team a real NFC title-game contender. Here's something most don't know. The Saints are 11-2 ATS their last 13 road games! Make New Orleans an 8* play. |
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11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lions picked up a rare win in Lambeau Field this past Monday when they beat the Rodgers-less Packers, 30-17. QB Matthew Stafford connected on 26 of 33 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns (both to Marvin Jones) in the win at Green Bay. The victory got the Lions to 4-4, two games back of the 6-2 Vikings in the NFC North. Cleveland: WR Josh Gordon returned to the team during the week but isn't eligible to play until Dec. 3. Other quality players are fighting injuries. All-purpose RB Duke Johnson left the last game with a concussion and is listed as questionable but DE Myles Garrett (the No. 1 overall pick of the 2017 draft) has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play. Defensive back Jabrill Peppers is uncertain to play after missing the past two games with a toe injury. Rookie QB DeShone Kizer was benched early in the second half the previous week after throwing two interceptions against Tennessee but played the entire Week 8 against Minnesota (a 33-16 loss). He completed 18 of 34 passes for only 179 yards but didn't commit any turnovers. Kizer was second-round pick out of Notre Dame but is completing just 52.1 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions, giving him an awful 51.1 QB rating. He has to realize that he needs to improve quickly or become just another failed Browns signal caller. Cleveland is scoring just 14.9 PPG (31st), while allowing 25.2 PPG (28th). This just in...that's not a good combo. Detroit: Stafford is a quality QB and is having another good seson. He's completing 62.4% for 2,212 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs (94.4 QB ratings). The running game stinks (79.9 YPG ranks 29th) but Stafford leads an offense that averages 25.8 PPG (8th). Stafford's first scoring pass to Jones in last week's MNF contest was the 200th TD pass in his 117th career game (sixth-quickest in NFL history). Jones has 33 catches and a team-high five TD receptions, while Golden Tate has shrugged off shoulder issues to lead all receivers with 562 yards on 50 catches. The pick: As noted, the Lions are not in bad shape for a playoff push but Detroit's defense is in the bottom half of the league in points allowed (23.2 PPG arnks 20th) and yards allowed (341.8 YPG ranks 21st). Sure, the Browns are 0-8 but they haven't 'rolled over!' Four of their losses have come by just three points and they very well could have won a few of those. The Lions actually come into this contest having lost theri last three home games and that's been due in large part due to the team's red-zone woes. Detroit ranks 27th at 45.8 percent scoring TDs in the red zone, just one spot ahead of the Browns (45.0). No upset but take the huge points and make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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11-11-17 | Wolves -9.5 v. Suns | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Timberwolves saw their five-game winning streak end Wednesday night at Oracle Arena when they fell 125-101 to the Warriors. Losing to and particularly at Golden State, is something that will happen to most teams but overall, the T-wolves have proven they are capable of making noise in the Western Conference. Minnesota's 7-3 start was its best 10-game start since going 9-1 in 2001-02 but an 18-4 third-quarter run proved to be its undoing in a 125-101 loss to the Warriors on Wednesday. “We got humbled … that’s the kind of level we want to get to, the way they’re playing over there,” Timberwolves forward Taj Gibson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune Minnesota: Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague were outscored by the Warriors' backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson 60-25 on Wednesday. "I just know what I can bring to the table in all aspects of the game. I know the reasons they wanted me here and a big part of it is scoring, closing out games, guarding, getting everyone involved. So I'll be a new player from here on out," Butler told the Star-Tribune. The Timberwolves had held the previous three opponents to under 100 points. "That's what a championship team looks like," head coach Tom Thibodeau said. "They play hard. They play together. They make plays. Their defense over the last five games has been back to what their defense is. That's why they've been able to win the way they've won. Their willingness to sacrifice and play for each other is what makes them great." Towns leads the Timberwolves in scoring and rebounding, averaging a double-double with 21.0 points and 11 rebounds per game. He is tied for seventh with 1.82 blocks per game. Wiggins is averaging 19.6 PPG, with the team's veteran guard duo of Butler (14.-5.0-4.5) and Teague (13.5 & 8.1 APG) comprising this team's "Core Four." Phoenix: The Suns are led by guard Devin Booker, who averages 22.1 points a game but was held to nine points in the loss to Orlando on Friday. While Booker had his worst game of the season, first-round pick Josh Jackson gave Phoenix what it hopes becomes a regular occurrence. He made 9-of-18 from the floor for a season-high 18 points and tied another personal best with six rebounds while playing only 22 minutes. Jackson is averaging 10.1 & 3.4 on the season. Center Alex Len (making his second start of the season in place of Tyson Chandler, who is out with back spasms), managed to stay out of foul trouble against Orlando for one of the first times this season and finished with season highs in points (21) and minutes (40) while also corralling 13 rebounds. Mike James continued to be one of the Suns' few bright spots during their losing streak, posting his third straight game with at least 16 points He is averaging 14 points over his last seven outings despite a two-point effort on Nov. 3 and 12.7 PPG on the season. The pick: Minnesota was not up to the task of matching up against the Warriors but is that really the issue? I think not. The T-wolves entered their Wednesday at Oracle on a five-game winning streak, while holding three of their previous four 'victims' under 100 points.The Suns dumped Earl Watson after an 0-3 start and initially played like an NBA team, going 4-1 and 5-0 ATS. However, they enter this contest having returned to the early form that got Earl Watson fired by going 0-5 SU & ATS. Make the T-wolves an 8* play. |
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11-11-17 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 73 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Big Ten's woes were evident with the announcement of the second CFP rankings this past Tuesday, as Ohio State and Penn State each fells six sports to 13th and 14th, respectively. Yes, Michigan State made the biggest move, from 24th all the way to 12th, but unbeaten Wisconsin was only ranked 8th, behind one-loss schools Notre Dame (3), Clemson (4), Oklahoma (5) and TCU (6). Bottom line is, Wisconsin's poor SOS numbers could possibly (likely?) keep the Badgers out of the 'Final 4' even if Wisconsin can finish 13-0. However, the Badgers can't worry about that now, as coming to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison on Saturday will be the Iowa Hawkeyes, who may be just 6-3 (3-3 in Big Ten play) but this is the team that just beat Ohio State 55-24 last Saturday and could have upset Penn State Sep. 23rd, falling just 21-19. Iowa: Talking about his team's upset of Ohio State last Saturday, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz told hawkeyesports.com, "If we could draw up the way we wanted it to look, that pretty much was it. The guys did a good job, there was good run-pass balance. I think we were a yard apart on run total (243) and pass total (244). More importantly, we were able to run and pass efficiently and work together -- I was happy to see that. We were hoping we would see that execution over the last four or five weeks and we finally broke through." On defense, Iowa held Ohio State under wraps, led by defensive back Josh Jackson who tied a school record with three interceptions and was named the Big Ten Co-Defensive Player of the Week on Monday. "He knocked it out of the park," Ferentz said of Jackson. "You can see the maturation of guys sometimes, and Josh has taken a step with every year he has been here. He played good football for us the last two years, now he is a starter and has played well all season. It's almost impossible to have three interceptions in one game and all three of them were spectacular plays." That defense allows 18.1 PPG (16th) on 370.2 YPG (45th). However, the Hawkeyes are averaging a modest 28.3 PPG (6th) on just 361.0 YYPG (103rd). Wisconsin: Wisconsin knows a little something about playing defense, ranking 5th in both points allowed (13.3 PPG) and total yards allowed (267.8 YPG). The offense may not always look 'pretty' but the Badgers average 36.1 PPG (24th) on 439.2 YPG (37th). That offense is led by freshman RB Jonathan Taylor, who bounced back from an ankle injury suffered in a 24-10 win at Illinois on Oct. 28 by running for 183 yards on 29 carries in last week's 45-17 victory at Indiana. Taylor comes in having run for 1,328 yards on 7.2 YPC with 12 TDs, leading a ground game averaging 245.2 YPG (18th). QB Alex Hornibrook is efficient (64.4% for 1,728 yards with 15 TDs and 9 INTs) but hardly a game-changer. The pick: Is it possible (likely?) for Iowa's offense to maintain the kind of balance it showed against Ohio State (in Iowa City), here on the road at one of college football's toughest venues in Camp Randall? Isn't this a perfect "letdown spot" for the Iowa after blowing out Ohio State? These recent numbers indicate Iowa could be in trouble, as the Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a straight up win of more than 20 points and 0-4 ATS in their last four after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Wisconsin is the only Big Ten team with a path to the CFP and it knows it must "take care of business!" The Badgers also know that they will get some help on Saturday, as No. 3 Notre Dame plays at No. 7 Miami and No. 5 Oklahoma hosts No. 6 TCU. The losers of those games will both fall behind Wisconsin, as long as the Badgers win. A dominating win, will 'taste' even better, Make Wisconsin a 10* play. |
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11-11-17 | Oklahoma State -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 49-42 | Win | 100 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
The setup: The Oklahoma State Cowboys are off a 62-52 home loss to Oklahoma last Saturday in their annual "Bedlam" showdown. The loss dropped the Cowboys to 7-2 (4-2 in the Big 12), all but ending their Big 12 and College Football Playoff hopes. Still, Oklahoma State's reputation remains solid (No. 15 in the CFP rankings) and still owns a resume good enough to be a candidate for a major bowl. OSU travels to Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa on Saturday to face the 6-3 Iowa State Cyclones (4-2 in the Big 12), who own wins of 38-31 over Oklahoma on the road and 14-7 over TCU at home. The Sooners are currently No. 5 in the CFP rankings and the Horned Frogs are No. 6. The schools will meet for the 52nd time, with OSU holding a 30-18-3 advantage. Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 3,314 yards with 27 TDs and seven INTs. Rudolph's top receiver is James Washington, who has 52 receptions and is averaging 21.8 YPC with nine TDs (OSU ranks third in passing YPG at 379.2 per). The running game features Justice Hill (1,064 yards on 5.9 YPC with nine TDs) and ranks 33rd, averaging 204.6 YPG on the ground. Defense is an issue, allowing 28.6 PPG (79th) on 405.6 YPG (77th). Iowa State: The Cyclones are looking for a third win over a ranked team, which would surely improve the quality of their bowl game. QB Kyle Kempt is completing 66.9 percent of his passes for 1,108 yards, with 10 TDs and just three interceptions, since taking over for Jacob Park, who went on leave for undisclosed personal medical reasons. Kempt's first start came in the upset against Oklahoma and he was under center for the win over TCU, as well (he's 4-1 as a starter). The team's ground game is averaging only 112.8 YPG (118th) but the defense has been very good, allowing 18.9 PPG to rank 21st. The pick: The Cowboys claim that they have come away from the Bedlam loss feeling confident in the way they played and confident in their leadership. OSU's offense is a dominating unit and after watching game film on Iowa State allowing West Va. 524 yards last Saturday, should feel confident. Yes, Oklahoma State has failed its two toughest tests 2017 (both at home vs. TCU & OU) but the Cowboys are 5-0 SU on the road, out-scoring opponents 41.4-to-22.2 PPG. The Cowboys have won the last five in the series and will make it six in a row here, while covering. Make Oklahoma State an 8* play. |
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11-11-17 | Arkansas +17 v. LSU | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: It's an SEC clash from Baton Rogue when No. 24 LSU (6-3, 3-2 in the SEC) hosts the Arkansas Razorbacks (4-5, 1-4 in the SEC) at Tiger Stadium in an 11:00 CT start. LSU has played the vast majority of its home games at night and I'll point out that this will be just the 12th game played in Tiger Stadium before noon since 1969. LSU's three-game winning streak was snapped at Alabama last Saturday, when the Tigers fell 24-10. The Arkansas Razorbacks can climb back to .500 with a win, after narrowly escaping against Coastal Carolina in their last outing, winning 39-38 at home as a 24 1/2-point favorite. The schools are meeting for the 63rd time with LSU leading the series 38-22-2, after having won 12 of the last 20 "Battles for the Golden Boot." Arkansas: The Razorbacks enter this contest having won two straight by one point, that unimpressive 39-38 non-conference victory over Coastal Carolina at home last week, and a 38-37 win at Ole Miss as a three-point dog on Oct. 28. Arkansas will need at least two victories in its final three contests to become bowl eligible and will play its final two games at home after this one, against Miss. St. and Missouri. Senior QB Austin Allen threw for 3,430 yards last season and could return after missing the last four games with a shoulder injury, although freshman Cole Kelley has played admirably (59.6 percent completion percentage, eight TDs and three interceptions). Arkansas is a mediocre offensive team, averaging 29.9 PPG (55th) on 388.4 YPG (76th). That really hasn't been good enough with a defense allowing 36.1 PPG (11th) on 422.4 YPG (92nd). LSU: The Tigers' 24-21 loss to Troy as a three-TD favorite (on Homecoming, no less!), was earth-shattering to the LSU faithful. However, LSU rebounded with road wins at Florida and Ole Miss, sandwiched around a home upset of Auburn. The team played hard at Alabama and held the Crimson Tide to just 299 yards of total offense but the Tigers kept giving Alabama a short field on offense which ultimately led to LSU’s downfall ('Bama won 24-10). QB Danny Etling completed just 12-of-26 passes for 137 yards and an interception, after connecting on 58.5 percent of his tosses with four TDs and no picks during the team’s three-game winning streak. Etling has only nine TDs passes the season but also just two INTs. However, LSU's passing game ranks just 89th, averaging 196.3 YPG. Two good RBs, Guice (782 YR / 5.5 YPC) and Williams (559 YR / 5.2 YPC) lead a ground game averaging 209.0 YPG (31st). The Tigers also play good defense and enter this game allowing 20.4 PPG (30th) on 317.0 YPG (17th). The pick: Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema is clearly on the 'hot seat' at Fayetteville but Arkansas is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams at LSU. The Tigers "gave it their all" against Alabama and the points are VERY attractive in this matchup. Make Arkansas an 8* play. |
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11-10-17 | Georgia Tech v. UCLA -7.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baoshan Sports Center in Shanghai, China is host to a game between the UCLA Bruins (No. 21 in teh AP's preseason poll) of the Pac-12 and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets from the ACC. UCLA went 31-5 last season and Ga. Tech just 21-16, but the Yellow Jackets made it all the way to the NIT champiosnhip game last season, before losing. This contest was one of a handful of marquee matchups on CBB's opening night but off-the-court issues have dominated the storyline. Just who isn't aware that three UCLA players, freshmen LiAngelo Ball, Cody Riley and Jalen Hill, will not play following arrests in an alleged shoplifting incident Tuesday in Hangzhou. However, earlier that same day, CBS Sports published allegations a friend made against Georgia Tech coach Josh Pastner, accusing Pastner of knowing about exchanges of impermissible benefits. Georgia Tech previously self-reported violations involving Josh Okogie and Tadric Jackson to the NCAA, with the caveat being that Pastner was unaware until Oct. 2, and the violations totaled less than $1,300. |
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11-10-17 | Washington -5.5 v. Stanford | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: While much was made of the Big Ten's woes with the announcement of the second CFP rankings this past Tuesday, it should also be noted that the Pac-12 is not exactly "sitting pretty," either. Washington made the 'Final Four' in 2016 but the Huskies will not only need to "win out" the rest of the way but also need s"some help" for a return trip to this year's semifinals, to be contested on Jan. 1 in the Rose and Sugar Bowls. Washington (8-1 & 5-1 in the Pac-12) is the highest rated Pac-12 school in the latest rankings (at No. 9) and will travel to Stanford Stadium Friday night to take on the Stanford Cardinal, who lost 24-21 at Washington State last Saturday, falling out of both the AP poll and latest CFP rankings at 5-3 (5-2 in Pac-12 play). There's a long history between the schools, which meet for the 87th time with Washington leading the series just 42-41-4. Washington: The Huskies are coming off a 38-3 pasting of the Oregon Ducks last Saturday in Seattle. Washington scored 38 unanswered points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, out-gaining the Ducks by a 451-278 margin. WR Dante Pettis caught four passes for 87 yards and 1 TD but also became the NCAA's all-time leader in punt returns for TDs with a 64-yard return. The Huskies are averaging 38.6 PPG (14th) on 413.0 total yards per game (55th). QB Jake Browning has completed 67.8% of his passes on the season for 1,907 yards with 16 TDs and five INTs. RB Myles Gaskin (918 YR / 6.2 YPC / 10 TDs) leads a ground game averaging 188.0 (43rd). Defensively, the Huskies are holding teams to 11.1 PPG (2nd) on 242.1 YPG, which ranks No. 1! Stanford: The Cardinal 'escaped 15-14 at Oregon State Oct. 26 without star RB Bryce Love but couldn't win in Pullman this past Saturday, falling 24-21 to Washington State (currently 19th in the CFP rankings). Love was back but he looked less than 100 percent, gaining 69 yards on 16 carries (52 yards came on a TD run!). QB play has been questionable all season for Stanford, with sophomore K.J. Costello getting the start over senior Keller Chryst (54.2& with an 8-4 ratio) against WSU. He went 9 of 20 for 105 yards without a TD and one INT, badly getting out-played by the Cougars' Luke Falk (337 yards and three TDs). Who does Stanford turn to here? Stanford's defense is not in the class of Washington's, allowing opponents to an average of 21.3 PPG (33rd) on 401.3 YPG (73rd). The pick: Love is arguably the nation's top RB when 100 percent but that is likely not going to be the case, here.Browning was better last year but he's still far superior to either Chryst of Costello, for Stanford. The Cardinal will be looking for payback for the Huskies' 44-6 win last season in Seattle but while Stanford has dominated Washington by winning nine of the last 12 meetings (had won eight in a row until last season), the "here and now" says Washington. Make the Huskies an 8* play.. |
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11-10-17 | South Alabama v. Texas Tech -24 | Top | 50-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The South Alabama Jaguars will visit the United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Tx. to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Jaguars were just 14-18 last season, after winning 14, 12 and 11 games, the previous three seasons. The goal for head coach Matthew Graves is to finish .500 or better for the first time since 2012-13 (before he arrived). The Red Raiders are off an 18-14 year in Chris Beard's first season at the school. South Alabama: The Jags return just one starter from last year and that's the 6-7 Josh Ajayi, who averaged 10.6 PPG on 48.7% shooting, while adding 5.4 RPG. He expects to up that scoring average this year plus sophomore guard Herb McGee (3.6) has a chance to produce more after playing in 31 games last season and 6-6 sophomore forward Trhae Mitchell brings experience at the forward position. The X-factor for the Jaguars is Pittsburgh transfer Rozelle Nix, who played 20 games last season and brings a massive frame of 6’11”, 300 pounds. Texas Tech: The Red Raiders were young last season, leaving a lot of potential for this year. Guard Keenan Evans (15.4 PPG) and the 6-8 Zach Smith (12.1 & 7.2) are a solid returning duo. Justin Gray is a 6-6 forward who made 27 starts last season and has shot above 50 percent the last two years, Niem Stevenson shot 37.5 percent from three-point range last season and made seven starts in the team's last 10 games (averaged 8.6 PPG for the season). The pick: Chris Beard, in his first and only season at UALR, led the Trojans to 30–5 seaso. He won the regular season and Sun Belt tournament titles and then knocked off fifth-seeded Purdue 85–83 in double overtime to advance to the Second Round, where the Trojans fell to Iowa State. The Red Raiders have no excuse not to seriously compete in the Big 12 and reach the Big Dance (for just the second time since the Bob Knight days), as they're one of the more experienced teams in the country. The Red Raiders have won 12 of their last 15 home games, while the Jaguars have lost 10 of their last 13 road games (note: Tech is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 13.0 or more). "Blowout Alert!" Make Texas Tech an 8* play. |
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11-10-17 | Pacers -3 v. Bulls | Top | 105-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Bulls began the season with Bobby Portis punching Nikola Mirotic in the face, hospitalizing Mirotic and earning himself an eight-game suspension. Not much has gone right since for Chicago which will host the Indiana Pacers tonight. The Bulls own a 2-7 record and the Pacers come to town as losers of four in a row following a 5-3 start, giving them a 5-7 mark. Both teams have made major personnel changes but it may be noteworthy that Chicago has won 22 of the last 26 vs. Indiana at the Indiana: The Pacers have not just lost four in a row, they've allowed 115.0 PPG in those setbacks to also go 0-4 ATS. "It sucks that we haven't won in a while, but it's part of the game and it's a part of the NBA," Indiana guard Victor Oladipo told reporters. "How teams respond separates the good teams from the great teams, and we've got to figure out what kind of team we want to be." Oladipo leads the Racers in scoring (22.8) and it's good news that center Myles Turner got back on the court last Friday (15.2 & 9.0 on the season). However, the offensive side of the ball hasn't caused Indinia trouble, it's been the team's defense. Indiana now ranks 25th in scoring D (110.2 PPG) and 28th defensive field-goal percentage (48.3%). The Pacers allowed the Detroit Pistons to shoot 51.8 percent from the floor and knock down 12-of-27 from beyond the arc in a 114-97 setback on Wednesday. "They made some plays, and once again, we didn't get the stops that we needed," Indiana head coach Nate McMillan told reporters. "It looked like we were a little fatigued tonight and just didn't have enough." Chicago: Bobby Portis returned from his suspension at Toronto on Tuesday, scoring 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting while adding 13 rebounds in 24 minutes off the bench in a 119-114 loss to the Raptors. "Just tried to go out there and play the best I could and have fun," Portis told reporters. "It's been a long time since I played the game of basketball. I'm not going to stop being myself; situation happened. But at the end of the day, I have to be myself no matter who is around, who is my teammate, what team I'm on." Although one couldn't tell it by Tuesday's loss, the Bulls are actually one of the better defensive teams in the league, limiting opponents to 100.6 PPG (5th) on 44.3 percent shooting (8th). Arizona rookie Markkanen (15.8 & 8.2) is currently the team's top scorer, although guard Holiday (15.6) and center Robin Lopez (15.3 & 6.1) are right there with him. The pick: Sure, series history says the Bulls in this one (especially, at this venue) but both teams look "nothing like" the teams of the recent past (or even further back!). The Pacers have seen a huge drop-off in their defensive effort during their four-game slide (see above) and following Wednesday night's loss in Detroit, held a closed-door team meeting which emphasized that players understood that something had to give after starting the season by winning five of their first eight games. "You can't have a negative mindset this early in the season, but we definitely have to get the ball rolling," Pacers center Myles Turner told reporters following Wednesday's loss, according to the Star. "Chicago is a must win for us." I'm "buying into" Turner's sentiment. Make Indiana a 10* |
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11-09-17 | Thunder -1 v. Nuggets | Top | 94-102 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Denver Nuggets have two more games to go on the team's current six-game homestand, including tonight's contest against OKC. "We set this goal to go 6-0," center Nikola Jokic said. "We're not going to do that (Nuggets are 3-1), but we have two games,left so we're going to try to do our best to achieve something." The now 6-5 Nuggets welcome the Thunder to Pepsi Center tonight and just might be catching OKC at the right time. Oklahoma City has struggled in trying to fit forwards Paul George and Carmelo Anthony around Westbrook, the reigning MVP. All three are averaging 20.1 points but inconsistency has been an issue, especially against Western Conference teams, as the Thunder are 0-5 against Wes opponents. Oklahoma City: The Thunder are coming off a 94-86 loss to the lowly Sacramento Kings on Tuesday and afterward Westbrook vowed the Thunder would be better. "I take ownership of how we're playing, and I will be better," he said after the loss to the Kings. "We will be better, so I'm not worried." OKC insists that the team is just going through some growing pains as its superstars and supporting staff learn to play alongside each other. However, in the loss to the Kings, the team shot 33.7 percent from the floor with Carmelo Anthony, Paul George and Russell Westbrook combining to go 15-of-54. "We have a whole year to figure it out," George told reporters. "We can't really rush into this. It's something that step-by-step, day-by-day, at this point game-by-game we have to slowly get on the same page. It sucks to drop games like this. We look back down the road in March and April, we'll be pretty sick about it, but this isn't when we want to play our best basketball." Denver: Meanwhile, the Nuggets are starting to come together. They have won five of their last seven games and center Nikola Jokic broke out for a career-high 41 points in a 112-104 win over the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday. after managing just eight points in a loss to the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. Jokic is averaging 17.9 points on 53.5 percent shooting, while adding 11.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists. "The guy can do it all," Denver coach Michael Malone told reporters. "It was one of those nights for him, We needed it. ... He is ultra-skilled. Obviously, the way he's been shooting the ball from 3-point range this year has been magnificent. I'm going to stop saying he's a (heck) of a young player. I don't care how old he is. Nikola Jokic is one of the best players in the NBA." Joining Jokic are free agent PF Millsap (15.4 & 6.3) plus four guards (Barton, Harris, Mudiay and Murray) who are all scoring between 11.5 and 14.3 PPG. The pick: The Thunder may be 0-5 vs. the West so far but they have won five straight at Pepsi Center, dating back to Feb. 9, 2015. It is also a homecoming for Anthony, who played his first 7 1/2 seasons in Denver before being traded to the New York Knicks. Sure, he's been back as a Knick, but now he's playing for a division rival that needs to make a statement. Make OKC a 10* play. |
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11-09-17 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Blues | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Coyotes are 2-13-2. giving them not only the worst record among all Western Conference teams but also the worst record in the entire NHL. They travel to St. Louis tonight to take on the Blues, owners of the West's best record at 12-3-1. The Blues' 25 points are just one shy of Atlantic Division leader Tampa Bay, which owns the NHL's best record at 12-2-2 (26 points). The Coyotes limp in 1-8-1 on the road so far, while the Blues are 6-1-0 at home plus come in 8-1-1 in their last 10 overall contests. Ariziona: First-year Arizona head coach Rick Tocchet is trying to take a patient approach to the Coyotes' performance, looking for small ways that the team can improve. Does he have another option? "Been here a couple months and one thing I noticed, I don't want us to be a perimeter team," Tocchet told NHL.com after the Coyotes' most recent loss, 3-1 to the Penguins on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. "You have to go to the net. You have to be good along the walls. That's something that we as an organization, we have to get better at. I have to teach it better because you can't win in this league unless you have people that go to the net or you win battles along the wall." Surely a bright spot has been the play of 19-year-old rookie Clayton Keller, who has scored 11 goals and contributed six assists. Only one other player on the team has scored more than three goals. No. 1 goaltender Antti Raanta has his work cut out for himself, as with Arizona's 2.4 goals per game ranking 29th in the league and its 28th-ranked penalty kill (only 75.0 percent), he rarely has any margin of error. St. Louis: The Blues have won 12 of their first 16 games of a season for the first time in franchise history while the team's 25 points after that stretch ties a club record. Goalie Jake Allen has stepped up his game with a 5-1-0 mark, 1.84 goals-against average and .933 save percentage in his last six starts. Brayden Schenn, who will play in his 450th career game on Thursday, followed up a four-assist performance in St. Louis' 6-4 win over Toronto on Saturday by joining Vladimir Tarasenko with a three-point effort in a 3-1 triumph at New Jersey three nights later. "It's been fun, two guys with tons of skill," Schenn said of Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz, a line that has accounted for 16 points (four goals, 12 assists) in the last two games. The pick: The Blues outscored the Coyotes 10-2 en route to winning all three meetings last season, making the results of their head-to-head games in recent yearstotally one-sided. also have been one-sided. St. Louis has won 10 of its past 11 meetings with Arizona plus goalie Jake Allen has turned aside a staggering 174 of 181 shots (.961 SP) to record two shutouts and win all seven career encounters with teh Coyotes, Any chance here for Arizona? Antti Raanta stumbled out of the blocks in his 100th career game on Tuesday, yielding two goals in the first 3:07 of the contest before settling in for the night against the Penguins, in a 3-1 loss. However, he's faced 37 shots in each of his last two games, allowing a modest four goals, for .946 SP. I'm taking the 1 1/2 goals and making Arizona an 8* play. |
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11-09-17 | North Carolina +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: North Carolina opened the season losing to Cal (allowed 35 points) and Louisville (allowed 47 points). The Tar Heels rolled over ODU 53-23 on Sep. 16 but then dropped five straight games (also 0-5 ATS) before hanging tough against Miami on Oct. 28, before losing a sixth consecutive game, 24-19 (UNC covered as a 21-point home dog). The 1-8 Tar Heels (0-6 in the ACC) had last Saturday off and Thursday night travel to Heinz Field against the 4-5 Pittsburgh Panthers (2-3 in the ACC). The Panthers have won their last two games, beating Duke and Virginia, giving them a chance of earning a 10th straight trip to a bowl game with two wins in their last three games. The good news is that North Carolina has just one win this season and limps in on a six-game slide but the bad news is that the Tar Heels have won the last four games in the series and since 2013, are the only team the Panthers have not defeated in the Coastal division. North Carolina: The Tar Heels played hard against the 'Canes, out-gaining Miami 428-415 in yards but had four giveaways. North Carolina hasn't done much offensively, except in the team's lone win, when they scored 53 points. Despite that output, North Carolina is averaging just 21.3 PPG (110th) on 344.2 YPG (109th). Nathan Elliot replaced injured starter Chazz Surratt in the first half of the Miami game at QB, completing 16-of-39 passes for 173 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. However, he also ran for 79 yards and caught a 33-yard pass. Both Surratt and particularly Harris (1 TDP / 8 INTs) have struggled. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 33.4 PPG (105th) on 447.1 YPG (111th). Pittsburgh: In the team's back-to-back wins, the Panthers may just have finally found a replacement for RB James Conner. Conner ran for 3,733 yards on 5.6 YPC during his four-year career with the Panthers, including a 1,765-yard, 26 TD season in 2014. Darrin Hall is a junior who had carried the ball only 131 times in 2 1/2 years but broke out for 254 yards in Pitt’s 24-17 victory at Duke on Oct. 21 and followed that up with 111 yards on 25 carries in a 31-14 victory against Virginia on Oct. 28. Quarterback Ben DiNucci looks to have the No. 1 job now, although he's no better than Browne (Pitt ranks 77th with 218.4 YPG through the air). The Pitt D has allowed 27.9 PPG (74th) on 425.0 YPG (94th). The pick: The Tar Heels do enter on a six-game slide but their last game vs. unbeaten Miami (currently No. 7 in the CFP rankings) showed the team can compete. Meanwhile, despite back-to-back wins, Pittsburgh is just 5-13 ATS its last 18 games at home. Don't forget, North Carolina has won the last four games in the series. Make the Tar Heels a 10* play. |
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11-08-17 | Wolves +11 v. Warriors | Top | 101-125 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
Minnesota: The T-wolves believe their team is only scratching the surface. "This is still a work in progress," Teague told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "We're still trying to figure out each other. It can be a lot better. We all know that. We're starting to get into a groove here. But we have miles to go to be the team we want to be." Teague recorded 18 points and 12 assists in a 112-94 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday to continue his own groove with a fourth double-double in five games. Karl-Anthony Towns leads in scoring (21.8) and rebounding (10.9), while Wiggins checks in right behind him at 19.9 PPG (also 4.6 RPG). The two new 'key' additions are Butler and Teague. Butler checks in at 15.1-5.2-4.0 and Teague at 13.4 & a team-high 8.4 APG. Minnesota is averaging 109.4 PPG (7th) but allowing 109.8 PPG (25th). Golden State: The Warriors wow their fans with their offensive exploits and that's the case again this season. Golden State is No. 1 in scoring (118.5 PPG), FG percentage (51.2%) and three-point shooting (40.9%). You may just have heard of Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green. The Warriors led the NBA in defensive FG percentage en route to the championship last season gut ranks sixth in the early going this season (44.0%) and more troubling, 22nd in scoring D (108.5 PPG). The pick: The Warriors have righted their ATS 'ship,' covering four in a row after a 1-6 ATS start but the T-wolves are enjoying the franchise's first five-game winning streak since 2009. The Warriors have beaten the Timberwolves in 17 of the past 20 meetings. However, this year's team surely looks more than ready to end a streak which has seen them miss the playoffs for each of the last 13 seasons. The T-wolves may have lost three of four to the Warriors last season but covered three of the four, including winning outright once here in Oakland. Take the points and make Minnesota an 8* play. |
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11-08-17 | Lakers +9 v. Celtics | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost Gordan Hayward to a season-ending injury in Game 1 of the current season and then lost Game 2 to the Bucks. However, they then became the first team in NBA history to lose its first two games and then win its next seven. Boston didn't stop there though, as Monday Boston made in nine straight wins with 110-107 victory in Atlanta. Boston's puts its winning streak and the NBA's best overall record (9-2) on the line tonight, when the 5-5 LA Lakers invade TD Garden. At .500, the Lakers can't be too unhappy (coming off seasons of 27, 21, 17 and 26 wins) rookie PG Lonzo Ball is shooting 29.9 percent from the floor on the season, including 23.4 percent on threes. LA Lakers: Ball will have to learn to shoot but he is averaging 6.9 assists and 6.4 rebounds in 33 minutes, leading the team in both categories. He handed out nine assists in Sunday's 107-102 win over Memphis but he went 1-of-8 from three-point range in that game. “He’s been a little down on himself a little bit with the season he’s having,” fellow rookie Kyle Kuzma told the LA Daily News of Ball. "Of course he wants to play a lot better. I just try to tell him to be more aggressive on the floor. ... Once he’s confident in his game he’s pretty hard to guard." Kuzma has had no problem scoring and shooting well, as he has taken over the rookie scoring load for the Lakers by averaging 13.4 PPG on the season, while shooting 56.2 percent from the floor. Boston: Monday's win over Atlanta snapped a string of eight straight games of holding opponents under 100 points for the Celtics, who lead the NBA in scoring defense at 94.5 PPG. Boston could have drafted Ball with the No. 1 overall pick but instead traded down to the No. 3 spot and picked up forward Jayson Tatum, who is averaging 14.3 points on 50.0 percent shooting, including 52.9 percent from three-point range. The Celtics are getting contributions from everyone on the roster, but Kyrie Irving (22.3 & 5.7 APG) is the unquestioned team leader plus veteran center Al Horford had his fourth double-double of the campaign on Monday. He is averaging 14.6 PPG and 9.2 RPG, while shooting 47.4 percent from beyond the arc. The pick: the TD Garden always presents a hostile environment for the Lakers but they have improved their defense, which ranked dead last a year ago but was 11th in efficiency into last weekend. LA allowed 111.5 PPG last season but it's down to 107.3 PPG so far this season, which ranks 20th. The Ball-led offense remains a work in progress as Luke Walton tinkers with lineup combos but while Ball averages just 8.8 PPG, seven other Lakers are averaging in double digits (newly acquired center Brook Lopez leads with 16.4 PPG). One can't argue with the Celtics' 9-2 SU & ATS record but the Lakers come into this game having covered four in a row and I expect them to 'hang around' the number here in Boston. Make the Lakers an 8* play. |
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11-07-17 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 98-97 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-4 Memphis Grizzlies visit Moda Center tonight for a matchup with the 6-4 Portland Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies beat the Los Angeles Clippers 113-104 Saturday but lost to the Los Angeles Lakers 107-102 Sunday to open a five-game road trip that continues Tuesday against the Blazers. Portland enters off two close home wins, 113-110 on Thursday against the Lakers and then 103-99 over the Thunder on Sunday. Memphis: The Grizzlies have to be sick about losing to the Lakers. Memphis roared back from a 22-point deficit to close to within 103-102 inside the final minute before the Lakers closed out the win, 107-102. "We just waited too long to have a sense of urgency," said PG Mike Conley, who led the Grizzlies with 23 points. "We have to do better, especially on the second of back-to-back games. We didn't start the way we wanted to. You can't spot any team in this league that many points. We didn't have what it took early on." Conley (18.4 & 4.0 APG) notes that he has seen mixed results from a roster in transition. "I have been pleased with our effort. I think our team is learning," he said. "We still have a very long way to go, we have a lot of young guys who are learning the game. We are trying to do our best to bring everybody up to speed but we are going to have nights where we don't seem to have everything going for us." One newcomer who is thriving is veteran guard Tyreke Evans (17.1 PPG), who has posted three straight 20-point outings and is averaging 26 points on 59.2 percent shooting during the hot stretch. Veteran center Marc Gasol had 15 points and 10 rebounds against the Lakers for his fifth double-double of the season and checks in leading the team in scoring (19.9) and rebounding (9.3). Portland: Guard Damian Lillard is on a scoring spree and the Portland star looks to top 30 points for the fifth straight game when the Trail Blazers host the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. Lillard is averaging 34.3 points during his run, and tallied 36 points in Portland's 103-99 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Lillard is averaging 27.1-5.4-6.6 on the season, teaming with fellow guard McCollum (22.1 & 4.7) to give the Blazers one of the league's top backcourts. Portland is also receiving solid offensive play from center Jusuf Nurkic (16.0 & 7.8), who has played especially well over the past three games while averaging 24 points, eight rebounds and 3.3 assists and shooting 60.4 percent from the floor. The pick: Conley is recovering from a recent quad strain and doesn't quite seem 100 percent. The Grizz allow just 98.1 PPG (3rd) on 42.2% shooting (1st) but have trouble scoring, averaging only 101.8 PPG (24th). However, shutting down Lillard and McCollum is quite a task plus Portland is allowing almost 10 fewer points per 100 possessions than it did last season. Make the Blazers a 10* play. |
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11-07-17 | Bowling Green +8 v. Buffalo | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: UB Stadium is the venue for tonight's latest weekday game from the MAC, as the 3-6 Buffalo Bulls (1-4 in the MAC East) host the 2-7 Bowling Green Falcons (2-3 in the MAC East). Neither team will threaten 7-2 Ohio or 5-4 Akron, which are both 4-1 and in a tie for first in the East. However, Bowling Green is coming off a 44-16 win last week (just its second of the season), while Buffalo lost 21-20 at Akron, falling for a fourth straight time (all in MAC play), after opening the season 3-2 (1-0 in the MAC). Bowling Green: Mike Jinks is in just his second season as head coach at Bowling Green and was not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS heading into last Tuesday game at Kent State. The Falcons were averaging only 20.5 PPG, so the team's 44 points were a welcome sight, as were the team's 251 rushing yards plus the play of freshman QB Jarrett Doege. James Morgan started the last seven games of the 2016 season at QB for Bowling Green and was instrumental in the Falcons’ three-game winning streak to end the season. It was expected hat he would build on that performance but the exact opposite has been the case. He's completed just 45.3 percent of his passes with nearly as many interceptions (seven) as TD passes (nine). Morgan was benched in favor of freshman Doege who relieved Morgan in a 49-7 loss at Northwestern and then made his first start the following week at Middle Tennessee St. He showed good accuracy (63.5 percent completion rate) and had some success running the offense but then suffered a back injury in his second start against Akron. Morgan took over and led the Falcons to a 37-29 victory on the road against Miami (Ohio) in the next game, but gave way to another freshman, Grant Loy, in an Oct. 21st 48-17 blowout home loss to Northern Illinois. Doege was healthy last week and was an efficient 14-18 for 174 yards and two TDs (no INTs). The defense entered that game allowing 37.8 PPG on 526.5 YPG, so the 16 poits on 284 yards allowed were also welcome sights. Buffalo: The Bulls last played on Oct. 28th (final Saturday of Oct.) and while they out-gained Akron 454-367 (with almost 34 minutes of possession time), they lost 21-20. QB Tyree Jackson connected on 34-of-50 for 313 yards and an interception while Emmanuel Reed gave Buffalo a presence on the ground with 116 yards and two TDs on the ground. The pick. You'll get no argument from me that Buffalo is the better team but I'm not sure just why one would want to lay more than a TD with a team on a four-game slide. Also, consider this. The underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two schools with the road team going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. BG is the underdog and the road team in this one, so make Bowling Green a 10* play. |
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11-06-17 | Celtics -8.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics may have lost Gordon Hayward for the season in their first game but it's nearly impossible to imagine the team getting off to a better start even if Hayward was playing. The Celtics pulled away from the Magic on Sunday in Orlando, posting a 104-88 victory to extend the team's winning streak to eight games. Speaking of an eight-game streak, the Hawks opened the season with a victory but then lost eight in a row, before ending their skid with Sunday's 117-115 over the Cavs in Cleveland (what to make of the Cavs, so far?) The pick: Atlanta coach Budenholzer said "To get a win in Cleveland is not easy to do" but we may want to remind him that the Cavs are just 4-6 on the season, including 2-4 at home. The Hawks may be at home in this one but they are 0-3 SU at home so far, going 2-8 SU & 3-6-1 ATS on the season, overall. Meanwhile, Boston's owns the NBA's best overall record (8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS), including going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS on the road, Make Boston a 10* play. |
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11-05-17 | Thunder v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder squandered an 18-point lead in a 101-94 Friday home loss to the Celtics, indicating that there is still some work to be done in blending their trio of superstars on both ends of the court. OKC will take a 4-4 record into Portland on Sunday night, where they'll meet the 5-4 Blazers. Portland ended a brief two-game skid on Thursday, but just barely! A late three-pointer from Damian Lillard allowed the Blazers to escape with a 113-110 home win over the Lakers. Oklahoma City: Blending Russell Westbrook with newcomers Paul George and Carmelo Anthony was never expected to be seamless. That was sure the case Friday, as OKC seemingly had Boston on the ropes but squandered an 18-point lead. "It's good to struggle now, this is our first year together," Paul George told reporters. "This is a long run, we'll be fine. We're starting to shoot it well, we're starting to find some rhythm. We're starting to figure out how to attack and be aggressive. ... we'll be totally fine." Anthony told reporters after the contest, “We took the foot off the gas a little bit,” . “We didn’t put a full game together tonight." Anthony went 1-of-12 from the floor in the second half and finished with a season-low 10 points. As everyone knows, Westbrook averaged a triple-double for eth eyar last season but hsi line reads 19.5-9.4-11.8, so far through eight games. Portland: “It’s good to get a close game win," Portland head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. “We need that, especially on the heels of not only last night but some of the other games. Dame’s shot was huge. He really carried us in the second half." The bckcourt duo of Lillard (26.1-5.4-5.9) and McCollum (22.1 & 4.9) is set but Portland has been searching for an inside scorer to compliment them since LaMarcus Aldridge left. Center Jusuf Nurkic is trying to prove he can be"the man" and scored 28 points on 12-of-20 shooting in Thursday's win and is averaging 15.0 points and 7.8 rebounds. Portland: Not only is Westbrook averaging more than 12 PPG less this season but his percentages from the floor (.453 from .425) and the three-point line (.375 from .343), are also down. The Blazers got the best of the Thunder last season, taking three of the four and while Westbrook clearly has more help this season, it's yet to be determined how that will all play out. Make Portland a 10* play. |
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11-05-17 | Raiders -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 99 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-3 Miami Dolphins are 'licking their wounds' from a 40-0 loss at Baltimore in Week 8's Thursday night game, as they get set to welcome the Oakland Raiders to Miami Gardens and Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday evening. The Oakland Raiders know all about disappointment, as after opening the 2017 season at 2-0, the Raiders have lost five of six, with the team's lone win coming when Oakland scored on the game's final play of a 31-30 victory over the Chiefs in Week 7 (also, a Thursday night game). Oakland: Derek Carrr (64.6% with 12 TDs and 6 INTs / 90.9 QB rating) has only missed one game but he's clearly not 100 percent.Carr followed up his 417-yard explosion versus Kansas City with a 313-yard effort against Buffalo but he also tossed two interceptions for the third time in five contests. He'd love some help from his running game but Lynch has been a bust and Oakland ranks 26th with 88.0 YPG on the ground. The Raiders scored 26 at Tennessee and 42 at home vs. the Jets in opening 2-0 but are averaging a modest 21.1 PPG on the season (20th). Oakland did score 31 in the team's lone win (KC) in its last six games but the Oakland offense has averaged a woeful 13.4 PPG in its five losses. The defense has also been an issue, allowing 27 points or more in four of its last six games (1-5 stretch). Miami: The Dolphins lost two of their first three games (Week 1 contest was postponed due to Hurricane Irma) but then beat the Titans, Falcons and Jets, before falling to Baltimore 40-0 in their last appearance. Jay Cutler sat out vs. Baltimore due to multiple cracked ribs, with Matt Moore going 25 of 44 for only 176 yards with two picks! There is plenty to criticize regarding Cutler but it's good news for Miami fans that he's expected to play in this one. However, not only does Miami rank 31st in rushing yards at 76.3 YPG (just 3.2 YPC), but the Dolphins just traded away RB Ajayi (465 yards), who had accounted for 87 percent of the team's rushing yards in 2017 (you explain that to me?). The pick: Clearly, the Raiders are not the "up and coming team ready to break out" that many thought they would be but even though Oakland is 3-5 and Miami 4-3, I still see the Raiders as a better team than the Dolphins. Miami rans dead-last (32nd) in both scoring (13.1 PPG) and total offense (252.4 YPG). Cutler is back under center (an improvement but not by much) and the running game (a disaster) now doesn't even have a featured back. What's more, the defense comes in having allowed 68 points over its last two games. Miami's had very little of a home field edge (7-11-1 ATS the last two-plus seasons), while the Raiders entered 2017 on a 12-4 TS run on the road the previous two seasons, before going 1-3 ATS away from home to open this season. I'm sticking with my belief that Oakland is the better team and I'll make the Raiders an 8* play. |
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11-05-17 | Jazz v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 110-137 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Of the handful teams which attempted to upgrade their rosters in the off-season in an attempt to compete with the Warriors, the Houston Rockets are off to the best start. Houston's 119-104 victory at Atlanta on Friday gives them an NBA-best 6-1 record on the road and the team's overall 7-3 mark is tops in the Western Conference and behind only the 7-2 Boston Celtics, among all NBA teams. The Rockets will be home tonight though, when they welcome the 5-4 Utah Jazz to the Toyota Center. . The Jazz opened 5-0 at home but the team's hot start came to an end with a 109-100 loss to Toronto on Friday in Salt Lake City. The Jazz will visit the Rockets, who are just 1-2 at home, looking for their first road win of the young season (0-3). Utah: The Jazz allowed 109 points to Toronto, the team's worst defensive scoring performance of the season. "Well, it wasn't the best defensive effort. That's got to be there for us," head coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "A lot of individual breakdowns where guys were getting beat put us in some compromising positions and they were able to score. We're not going to win if we don't play defense better than that." Utah comes into thsi contest allowing 96.0 PPG (2nd) and the team relies on its defense, as the Jazz are scoring a modest 98.1 PPG, to rank 27th. Houston: The Rockets preceded their 15-point victory over the Hawks on Friday with an 18-point win over the Knicks on Wednesday. Houston made 19 three-pointers against the Knicks, then made 16 more vs. the Hawks. Houston jacked up 146 three-pointers over the last three games and is beginning to make a few more after some early accuracy issues. James Harden has averaged 29.7 points and 19.0 assists to lead the charge these last three games. Harden is averaging 26.8 PPG and 9.4 APG on the season, while the team's main off-season acquisition, Chris Paul, hasn't gotten back on the court since leaving with an injury in the team's season-opener. Center Clint Capela leads the NBA in FG percentage (69.0%), averaging 13.2 PPG and 10.9 RPG. The pick: Utah has won and covered two of last three visits to Toyota Center. (had lost eight of nine prior to that) but remember, Gordon Hayward (27 PPG vs. Rockets) and G George Hill (22 PPG) left via free agency. After enduring a schedule that featured seven road games over a 10-game stretch, the Rockets will host the Jazz tonight, in the first of three successive home games and nine in 12 games at Houston, overall. The Jazz are 0-3 SU on the road, losing at Minnesota, the LA Clippers and Phoenix. It doesn't get any easier, here. Make Houston an 8* play. |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys | Top | 17-28 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 45 m | Show |
Update: Elliott will play, but I'm still on the Chiefs! The set-up: The Chiefs opened the 2017 season at 5-0 but then lost 19-13 at home to the Steelers, before losing a Thursday night Week 7 game at Oakland 31-30, when the Raiders scored on the game's final play. However, KC got back on the winning track this past Monday with a 29-19 home win over the Broncos. KC used a combo of five FGs and five turnovers (a fumble was returned 45 yards for a TD) in moving to 6-2 at the season's mid-point. KC is 'sitting pretty" in the AFC West, as no other team owns a .500 record. The Dallas Cowboys won 33-19 at Washington last Sunday and the win gets them to 4-3, although the Cowboys are in the same division (NFC East) as the Eagles, who own the NFL's best record at 7-1. The even bigger news may be that just when Dallas appeared to be gaining momentum, the drawn-out Ezekiel Elliott suspension saga seems to have ended with the Elliott expected to begin his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's personal-conduct policy with this Week 9 contest. Kansas City: QB Alex Smith had an off game last Monday (14 of 31) but he still hasn't thrown an interception in 259 attempts in 2017. He comes into this game completing 69.1 percent for 2,181 yards with 16 TDs and a QB rating of 115.4 (best in the NFL). Rookie RB Hunt was held to 46 yards rushing (2.1 YPC) but he has an NFL-best 763 (5.2 YPC & 4 TDs) on the season, while adding 28 catches (2 TDs). TE Kelce had a big game on Monday, catching seven passes for 133 yards and a TD, giving him a team-high 44 catches and four TDs on the season. The offense is third in the NFL in scoring (29.5 PPG) and total yards (377.9 per), which has made up for a defense not playing nearly as well as past KC stop units. KC ranks 30th in allowing 392.2 YPG and 19th in allowing 22.5 PPG. Dallas; Ezekiel Elliott has 690 yards (4.2 YPC) and six TDs for a running game averaging 150.6 YPG (2nd-best). However, with Elliott out, Dallas will turn to Alfred Morris as the starter with Darren McFadden and Rod Smith serving as backups.Can those guys give Dak Prescott 'the cover' Elliott has? There has been no "sophomore jinx" for Prescott, who is completing 62.8 percent for 1,569 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs (96.6 QB rating). He's also has 168 rushing yards (7.3 YPC & 3 TDs), while leading an offense that's averaged 28.3 PPG (5th). The defense is nothing special, allowing 23.0 PPG (20th). The pick: My bet says it will make a HUGE difference that Elliott is not around and while Dallas has won eight of its last 10 home games, those two losses have come in the Cowboys' last TWO home games, falling 35-30 to the Rams (Week 4) and 35-31 to the Packers (Week 5). The Chiefs had their nine-game road winning streak snapped when they lost 31-30 at Oakland (in Week 7), on the game's final play. KC enters 14-3 ATS over the team's last 17 road games which is good enough for me to make the Chiefs a 10* play. |
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11-05-17 | Bucs +7 v. Saints | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -104 | 91 h 10 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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11-05-17 | Ravens v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Ravens have had an extra few days to enjoy the team's 40-0 win over the Dolphins in a Thursday night Week 8 game. QB Flacco did not play well and left with a concussion on a vicious hit by Miami's Kiko Alonso. However, Flacco returned to the team the next day vastly improved and is on the path to make the start, according to head coach John Harbaugh. The Tennessee Titans come into this contest off their bye week and will look to maintain their spot atop the AFC South standings with a win. The Titans are 4-3 (tied with the Jags), after an unimpressive 12-9 overtime victory at Cleveland in Week 7. Baltimore: Flacco has failed to throw for more than 235 yards in any game this season (Baltimore ranks 32nd with 152.9 YPG passing) plus the veteran has thrown just six TDs against eight INTs on the season, giving him a poor 72.3 QB rating. Flacco was held out of practice for most of the week but he's the team's No. 1 QB and Harbaugh said he would start if he was cleared by the medical department. RB Alex Collins ran for a career-high 113 yards vs. Miami and the Ravens rank seventh with 126.9 YPG on the ground. The Ravens' defense was terrific vs. the Dolphins, returning two interceptions for TDs in the most lopsided shutout in franchise history (Miami had just 196 yards of total offense and was 4 for 15 on 3rd downs). On the season, Baltimore is allowing 18.5 PPG (5th) on 317.2 YPG (10th). Tennessee: Speaking of defense, the Titans totally dominated the Browns back in Week 7, holding the Browns to 284 yards of total offense in the win. Offensively, Mariota was 21 of 34 for 203 yards but DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combined to rush for only 72 yards on 31 carries. That effort was not typical, as Tennessee comes in averaging 124.6 YPG (8th). The Titans' defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (26th) on the season but over the last three games, Tennessee has held its opponents to 15.7 PPG. The pick: Currently, Mariota owns a huge edge over Flacco and he is expected to get a boost with the return of WR Corey Davis, who was the fifth pick in last year's draft. He had six catches in Week 1 but has missed most of the season with a significant hamstring injury. He returned to practice on Monday and looks ready to jump right into the team's No. 1 receiver role. Davis set an FBS record with 5,285 career receiving yards at Western Michigan. Another edge for the Titans is PK Ryan Succop, who has made 55 straight FGs inside 50-yards! The Titans have covered six of their last seven in Nashville. Make Tennessee an 8* play. |
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11-04-17 | LSU +21 v. Alabama | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Alabama opened as the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and has held that spot ever since, opening 8-0, including 5-0 in the SEC. However, The Crimson Tide found themselves at No. 2 in the first CFP rankings, which came out Tuesday night. It's no big deal, as it's very likely that Alabama and the CFP's No. 1 team, Georgia, will meet in the SEC championship game on Dec. 2nd. As the saying goes, "there is a long way to go before we sleep." For Alabama, the task at hand is its home game with LSU this Saturday. A month ago, this Nov. 4th game looked like an easy win for the Crimson Tide. The Tigers opened 2-0 but then got blown out 37-7 at Mississippi St and two weeks later, suffered a baffling home setback to Troy, 24-21 (as a three-TD favorite!). However, the Tigers have ripped off three straight wins since that debacle and at 6-2 overall, including 3-1 in the SEC, still have a chance to claim the SEC West title. LSU: QB Danny Etling doesn't produce big passing numbers, as LSU averages just 201.5 YPG through the air, which ranks 84th. However, he's careful with the football, throwing just one interception in 155 attempts, while throwing for nine TDs. RB Derrius Guice opened with back-to-back 100-yard games but over the next five weeks (he missed the Troy game), never ran for more than 76 yards. However, he racked up a whopping 276 rushing yards and a TD on 22 carries in LSU's recent 40-24 win over Ole Miss. The Tigers had three sacks and three INTs, giving up 347 yards of total offense and held Ole Miss to 3 for 12 on 3rd down, while holding the Rebels to just over 22 minutes of possession in the win. LSU will always play D and this year's no different. The Tigers are allowing 20.0 PPG (27th) on 319.2 YPG (21st). Alabama: The Tide romped past Tennessee 45-7 on Oct. 21 and took the final Saturday of October off. Speaking of a team playing defense, Alabama leads the nation in scoring defense (9.8 PPG), is second in total defense (237.8 YPG) and firstin rrushing defense (68.1 YPG) while ranking 10th in passing defense (169.6 YPG). Offensively, QB Jalen Hurts (like Etling), has thrown just one interception (151 pass attempts) with nine TD passes. He is also a very dangerous runner, with 572 YR (6.8 YPC & 6 TDs). He joins RBs Harris (697 YR / 8.6 YPC / 10 TDs) and Scarbrough (327 YR / 4.7 YPC / 6 TDs) to give Alabama the seventh-best running game in the nation at 298.8 YPG. Alabama's 43.0 PPG scoring average is fifth-best. The pick: Alabama has won the last six meetings, including a 10-0 victory last season. However, that makes it seven of the last 10 meetings between these two rivals having been decided by 10 points or less! Too many points here to give LSU. Make them a 10* play. |
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11-04-17 | Stanford +2.5 v. Washington State | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 21 Stanford (CFP) will travel to Martin Stadium in Pullman, Wa. on Saturday afternoon to to take on No. 25 Washington State. The Cardinal escaped when they edged Oregon State 15-14, playing without star RB Bryce Love a week ago Thursday. Stanford improved to 6-2 (5-1 Pac-12) on the season and now face the Cougars, who dropped to 7-2 (4-2 in Pac-12) on the season after falling at the Arizona Wildcats 58-37, this past Saturday. Stanford owns a 40-26-1 series lead but Washington State won last year at Stanford, 42-16 as a seven-point underdog. Stanford: Without Love, QB Keller Chryst completed 16 of 33 passes for 141 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the Oregon State 'escape.' The Cardinal were out-gained by the Beavers by a 264-222 margin but won the turnover battle by a 3-1 margin. Despite its 15-point output vs. Oregon State, Stanford comes in averaging 35.2 PPG (30th) on 427.0 YPG (49th). The key is Bryce Love, who has run for 1,387 yards on 10.3 YPC with 11 TDs. QB Chryst is pretty average, completing just 54.2 % with eight TDs and four INTs. In fact, many fans are calling for redshirt freshman K.J. Costello. Stanford's defense is solid, allowing 21.0 PPG (33rd) on 397.8 YPG (78th). Washington State: The Cougars opened 6-0 and wwere No. 8 in the AP poll when they lost 37-3 at Cal. WSU bounced back with a 28-0 home win over Colorado but then got blasted 58-37 at Arizona, unable to stop Wildcat QB Tate, who passed for 275 yards (two TDs) and ran for 146 yards (one TD). QB Luke Falk has 23 TD passes and 2,576 passing yards and continues to climb the NCAA all-time leader boards. However, Tyler Hilinski replaced Luke Falk late in the first half of the Arizona game and ignited what had been a sputtering offense. Head coach Mike Leach said he initially pulled Falk out of the game to allow the quarterback "to see the field because we weren't pushing the ball down the field. Then Hilinski was hot, so we stayed with Hilinski." The redshirt sophomore completed 45 of 61 passes for 509 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for two scores but was intercepted four times, the last one returned 66 yards by Colin Schooler for a touchdown. The pick: WSU's defense opened the season playing well but allowing 37 points at Cal and 58 at Arizona raises big questions. Love is arguably the nation's best RB but missed last week's 15-14 win over Oregon State with an ankle injury and is expected to be a game-time decision. However, the Cardinal are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss. I noted earlier that WSU won last season's game but that ended an eight-game losing streak to Stanford, which included Stanford winning the last four meetings here in Pullman. Make Stanford an 8* play. |
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11-04-17 | Penn State -8 v. Michigan State | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -125 | 64 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Penn State Nittany Lions led Ohio State in Columbus 21-3 in the early second quarter and entered the 4th quarter with a 35-20 lead, However, J.T. Barrett's 4th-quarter onslaught (he completed his final 16 passes!) led the Buckeyes to a 39038 comeback win. The defeat left Penn State at 7-1 (4-1 in the Big Ten) and James Franklin's squad opened No. 7 in the initial CFP rankings released this week. It was not a pleasant Saturday last weekend for Michigan State either, as the Spartans also suffered a difficult defeat, falling 39-31 in three overtimes at Northwestern. MSU is 6-2 and like Penn State, 4-1 in the Big Ten East. Both schools are a game behind the first-place Buckeyes, who check in at 5-0. The loser here drops out of the Big Ten hunt. Penn State: The Nittany Lions were guilty of some conservative offensive play-calling late against Ohio State but many teams have won at the Horseshoe since Meyer arrived. Michigan State: The Spartans lost last Saturday, despite QB Brian Lewerke setting school records for passing yards (445) and completions (39) against Northwestern. His 57 passing attempts tied for the second-highest total in program history. A negative was that he was also was the leading rusher with just 30 yards, as team season leader LJ Scott (511 yards) was held to 16 and committed his fifth fumble, continuing a season-long issue for the Spartans. Lewerke is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 1,807 yards with 14 TDs and four interceptions. The Spartans' ground game let them down last week but it is averaging 167.1 YPG on the season (63rd). Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 19.6 PPG (24th) on 283.4 YPG (8th). The pick: Both teams own strong defenses but Penn State is averaging more than two TDs per game more than MSU, 39.6-to-23.8). Penn St. owns a much-better balanced offense, as the Spartans have averaged just 2.5 YPC their last two games. That won't cut it vs. Penn State, which is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 Big Ten games and 16-3-2 ATS in its last 21 games, overall. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, as well. Make that 7-0 and make Penn St. an 8* play. |
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11-03-17 | Celtics v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost their season-opener at Cleveland plus FA acquisition Gordon Hayward to a season-ending injury, as well. Boston then lost its second game to Milwaukee but the Celtics have since won and covered six in a row. Boston will play tonight in OKC (second-half of the ESPN doubleheader), going up against the "new-look" Thunder, who may be just 4-3 but own the NBA's top point-differential at plus-10.9 PPG (Celtics check in at No. 2, at plus-9.2 PPG). Boston: Brad Stevens has well-established himself as one of the league's elite head coaches but he's adding to his resume in the early going of the current season. Boston, without Hayward, has been led by PG Irving (21.8 & 5.5 APG) and a strong performance from its starting frontcourt. Second-year forward Brown (16.2 & 5.9) and rookie forward Tatum (13.8 & 6.6) surround center Horford (14.0 & 9.1). Returning to Irving for a minute, he has scored at least 20 points in each of the six straight wins and he is ranked second in the league in steals (2.63 per game). Supplying solid support in the backcourt for Irving are Smart and Rozier (both are averaging 9.8 PPG), who are also combing to add 9.3 RPG. That said, defense has been the key, as Boston has held each of its six straight 'victims' to 94 points or fewer and enter this game allowing a league-low 93.8 PPG. OKC: After averaging a triple-double for the season last year, Russell Westbrook won the MVP. However, OKC knew its team was nowhere near ready to compete with the Warriors. Two big trades brought Carmelo (NYK) and Paul George (Ind) to the Thunder. Interestingly, Westbrook (19.6-9.9-11.7) is just shy of averaging another triple-double but The pick:The Celtics are not the only team playing excellent defense, as OKC ranks third in the NBA, allowing 95.7 PPG, which is more than 10 points fewer than last season. Offensively, the scoring distribution has played out seamlessly, at least so far. I noted earlier that OKC is just 4-3 to open the season but a closer look reveals that all four of the team's wins (AND covers) have come against Eastern Conference opponents. Boston my be 'the best in the East" for now but I'll make OKC a 10* play. |
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11-03-17 | Memphis -11.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The first CFP rankings were released this past Tuesday and while all attention was rightly paid to the top-four, schools from what's called "The Group of Five" also had a rooting interest. The school with the highest ranking from those non-Power Conferences will earn a bid to a "New Year's Six" bowl game. Unbeaten UCF currently holds the highest current ranking among the "Group of Five" schools at No. 18 but the Memphis is lurking, with its No. 24 ranking. However, the Tigers are 'playing from behind,' as their lone loss of 2017 was a 40-13 defeat at UCF back on Sep. 30th. Memphis is currently 7-1 (4-1 in the AAC West) as it visits Chapman Stadium in Tulsa on Friday night. The Golden Hurricane are only 2-7 overall, including 1-4 in the AAC West. Memphis: The Tigers have won four in a row since losing at UCF, averaging a whopping 49.5 PPG. QB Riley Ferguson is completing a modest 59.7 percent of his passes but Memphis ranks 10th at 329.0 YPG through the air. Ferguson has 23 TDs and just seven INTs, after throwing three or more TD passes in four of his last seven games. Memphis averages 42.5 PPG (8th) on 500.2 YPG (11th) but its defense allows 33.4 YPG (103rd) on 468.0 YPG (118th). Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane could use a win, after losing six of their last seven games. Tulsa depends on its running game, which averages 260.2 YPG (12th). It's led by Brewer (980 YR / 4.9 YPC / 8 TDs) and Brooks (687 YR / 5.8 YPC / 10 TDs). The Golden Hurricane can put points on the board (32.9 PPG ranks 38th on 446.2 YPG which ranks 35th) but defense has been a problem. Tulsa allows 37.7 PPG (120th) on a whopping 550.1 YPG (129th). The pick: Some say Memphis QB Ferguson is an NFL prospect, while Tulsa now starts redshirt freshman Luke Skipper, who will be making only his fourth start. There is talk that Memphis head coach Mike Norvell, has become a hot prospect as a potential candidate to fill the opening at Florida (Gators just parted ways with Jim McElwain over the weekend) but Norvell held a team meeting on Monday to discuss the rumors with his players. I'm not concerned with that "distraction," as Memphis is playing with a huge revenge motive, as Tulsa, as a six-point dog, won 59-30 at Memphis last season. However, this year's 2-7 Tulsa team bears little resemblance to last year's 10-3 squad. Lay the points and make Memphis an 8* play. |
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11-02-17 | Lakers +7 v. Blazers | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-4 LA Lakers will be up in Portland tonight to take on the 4-4 Blazers at Moda Center. The Lakers enter off a 20-point home win over the Pistons, who were coming off a shocking 115-107 win at Golden St. in their previous game. The Blazers lost 112-103 last night in Salt Lake City to the Jazz in OT but get right back on the court tonight, as they open a six-game homestand. Recent (and not so recent) history is on Portland's side, as the Blazers have won 12 straight meetings with the Lakers', whose last victory over Portland came back on March 3rd of 2014. The Blazers were 4-0 against the Lakers last season, winning by an average margin of 13.3 PPG. LA Lakers: Lonzo Ball was one of seven Lakers to score in double figures against the Pistons and chipped in six rebounds, three assists and two blocks without a turnover in a stat line that did not show his true value. "Take away the Phoenix game, this is the best game he's played, I thought," Los Angeles coach Luke Walton told reporters of Ball, who scored 29 points against the Suns earlier in the season. "The way that his pace was, the way he pushed the ball all the time. He was in the other team's paint. He just set the tone, and I thought the whole team fed off the way he was playing." LA is well-balanced, as eight players are averaging between 10.4 and 14.7 PPG. Clarkson (14.7) leads in scoring and Ball checks in at 10.4, along with 7.3 RPG and 7.0 APG. However, he'll have to shoot better than the 33.3 percent he's currently making on shots from the floor, including 28.6 percent on threes. Portland: The Blazers have lost two straight with Lillard (25.4-5.4-6.0) getting limited support during the team's two-game skid. He's scored 69 of the team's 186 points or more than 37 percent of its outcome. Only one other player reached double figures in Monday's 99-85 loss to Toronto (McCollum had 16) and just two, Jusuf Nurkic (19 points) and C.J. McCollum (16), scored in double digits in Wednesday's loss. The pick: Sure, the Blazers have won 12 straight in the series but offense has been a problem for the Blazers to open the 2017-18 season, with Portland shooting 42.4 percent from the floor, which ranks 28th in the NBA. Portland shot only 39.8 percent from the floor against the Jazz, making 9 of 34 shots from three-point range, that's 26.5 percent. Portland opened 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS) but limps in having lost three of four and on an 0-4 ATS run. Take the points and make the Lakers a 10* play. |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: It's “Thursday Night Football” on the NFL Network from MetLife Stadium when the 5-2 Buffalo Bills square off against AFC East rival, the 3-5 NY Jets. The Bills are a huge surprise in 2017, as if the playoffs were to begin this weekend, Buffalo would be the AFC's No. 1 wild card team. The Jets opened 0-2 but then ripped off three straight wins but while playing very competitively the last three weeks, have fallen 24-17 at home to the Pats, 31-28 at Miami and 25-20 at home to the Falcons. Buffalo: The Bills come in having won four of their last five, beating the Broncos, Falcons, Buccaneers and Raiders. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing last year at 164.4 YPG but it's running game wasn't doing much early and QB Tyrod Taylor is not good enough to carry this team. However, Buffalo's defense has been superb all season, holding opponents to just 16.4 PPG, third-best in the NFL. It's also noteworthy that the Buffalo owns a league-best plus-14 turnover margin. However, the key the last two weeks is the re-birth of Buffalo's running game, as the Bills have run for 173 and 165 yards in wins over Tampa Bay and Oakland since returning from a bye week. It's not a small deal, as after averaging 17.8 PPG through its first five games, Buffalo has scored 30 points in beating the Bucs and 34 points in beating the Raiders. NY Jets: Hard-fought losses are starting to pile up and the optimism of the team's three-game winning streak is starting to fade. Veteran Matt RB Forte openly question the play-calling of offensive coordinator John Morton as the team appeared to abandon the run in the rainy and sloppy conditions versus the Falcons but QB Josh McCown recorded his highest completion percentage of the season in that contest (26-of-33, 78.8 percent). What's more, the journeyman has nine TD passes over his last four games, three times posting QB ratings of 100-plus. In stark contrast to the Bills who have just three giveaways, the Jets have been rather generous with the ball this season, committing 14 turnovers (seven interceptions, seven fumbles), including Jeremy Kerley's costly muffed punt in Sunday's 25-20 s The pick: The Bills have not won the division since 1995 and would move into a tie with the idle New England Patriots for first place in the division with a win. Let's also note that the Bills gave notice that are serious about ending the team's 17-year playoff drought (NFL's longest current) by acquiring WR Kelvin Benjamin (32 receptions, 475 yards, two touchdowns) from Carolina for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline. However, I don't trust Buffalo away from home. The Jets have blown 14-point leads to the Patriots and the Dolphins plus led the Falcons going into the fourth quarter before losing these last three weeks. "Fourth time" is the charm! The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS the last six weeks and 4-0 ATS at home in 2017. Make the Jets an 10* play. |
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11-02-17 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The expansion Vegas Golden Knights are 8-3-0, a record made more remarkable by the goaltender 'carousel' they've had to deal with. The Golden Knights will visit the TD Garden on Thursday night to play the 4-3-3 Boston Bruins, who have their own health issues of late. Both teams will be looking to snap two-game losing skids in tonight's contest. The Bruins wil be playing with revenge, as they lost in Las Vegas 3-1 back on Oct. 15. Vegas: The Golden Knights left Nevada with an 8-1-0 overall mark, after finishing a 6-1-0 homestand. However, they were 0-2 in New York, losing 6-3 to the Islanders in Brooklyn on Monday after leading 2-1 late in the second period and then squandered a two-goal third-period lead and fell 6-4 to the Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. Maxime Lagace became the fourth goaltender to start for the Golden Knights this season after turning aside 32 shots in a 6-4 loss at the New York Rangers on Tuesday. "I'm taking the experience in and I'm having fun with all of that. I wish we won (Tuesday) but it's going to be refocus for next game," said the 24-year-old Lagace, who made his second appearance and first NHL start after Marc-Andre Fleury (concussion), Malcolm Subban (lower body) and Oscar Dansk (lower body) were placed on injured reserve. Boston: The Bruins are 1-0-3 over their last four games. Goalie Tuukka Rask has lost five straight, after falling in a shootout on Monday after his team rallied from three goals down to force overtime. The loss came two nights after Rask and the Bruins were stunned by a last-second overtime defeat that saw the Los Angeles Kings score off a faceoff in the Boston zone with nine-tenths of a second remaining. The Bruins have also been dealing with all kinds of injury and illness. It was announced on Wednesday that veteran David Backes is having surgery to remove part of his colon after his bout with diverticulitis. With David Krejci (back) still not on the ice for practice Wednesday, Jordan Szwarz was recalled from Providence of the American Hockey League. Zane McIntyre was recalled on an emergency basis because backup goalie Anton Khudobin is battling a lower-body injury. The pick: Boston may actually have more issues than the Vegas and Rask, after winning his first start of the season, has gone 0-3-2 since. He has a 2.93 goals-against average and .898 save percentage. I'll take the 1 1/2 goals and make Vegas an 8* play. |
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11-02-17 | Ball State +24 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
The set: If it's November, then it's weekday football games in the MAC. This Thursday night game features the 2-6 Ball State Cardinals against the 2-7 Eastern Michigan Eagles. Both teams come in on losing streaks. The Cardinals lost 58-17 to the visiting Toledo Rockets on Homecoming (Oct. 26), the team's fifth consecutive loss. Eastern Michigan also played and lost on Oct. 26th, 30-27 in OT at Northern Illinois, the Eagles' sixth straight loss. Toledo and Northern Illinois are both 4-0 in the MAC West, while Ball State and Eastern Michigan are both 0-4. This is not exactly a marquee matchup. Ball State: The Cardinals opened with a close loss at Illinois and then won its next two. However, the team has lost five in a row since and comes in averaging only 19.1 PPG (119th) on 341.4 YPG (109th) on the season. Defensively, the Cardinals allow 37.6 PPG (118th) on 412.5 YPG (86th). Head coach HC Mike Neu has to be frustrated, as he's lost three QBs and will likely go with redshirt freshman Drew Plitt again. Eastern Michigan: The Eagles opened the 2017 season 2-0 but enter this contest on a six-game slide. However, the Eagles have been competitive in all six defeats, losing three in OT and the other three by margins of four, five and one. EMU is poor offensive team, averaging just 20.8 PPG (115th). The Eagles have no running game to speak of, averaging 94.1 YPG (127th). Defensively, the Eagles are solid, allowing 21.1 PPG (35th) on 357.9 YPG (37th).The pick: Both teams enter on losing streaks (see above) but Eastern Michigan has been the more competitive team during its skid. EMU won last year's game (48-41 at Ball State) but that was just the Eagles' second win over the last 12 meetings of this series. This huge pointspread makes little sense. Take the points and make Ball State a 10* play. |
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11-01-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-129 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Toronto: DeMar DeRozan scored 25 points in the win at Portland, his fifth straight outing with at least 24 following an 11-point effort in the season opener. He's averaging 23.7 PPG on the season, while backcourt partner Kyle Lowry chips in 13.5-5.9-7.3, after he had a season-high 19 points to go along with 10 assists against the Blazers. Toronto is showing excellent depth early on, with 10 players averaging between 5.8 and 15.0 PPG behind DeRozan, led by PF Ibaka (15.0 & 5.0). Center Valanciunas was averaging 14.0 & 9.5 but has missed four straight games with an ankle injury. The Raptors are averaging 109.0 PPG (7th) but have shown an ability to play better defense in the early going as well, allowing 98.2 PPG (5th). Denver: The Nuggets rallied from a 22-point halftime deficit to take a brief third-quarter lead on Sunday at MSG but in the end fell 116-110 to the Knicks, as Kristaps Porzingis scored a career-high 38 points. Center Jokic leads with 17.3 & 11.1, backed by five others in double digits. That group includes guards Harris (14.4), Barton (13.9), Murray (12.3) and Mudiay (11.6) plus PF Millsap (14.1 & 7.9). The pick: Denver has played five of its first seven games on the road and now is home for awhile. Defense and turnovers have been a problem for the Nuggets, while the Raptors played tough at the Spurs and Warriors to open their six-game trip, before winning two in a row (have covered three straight). Toronto won two close games over Denver last season and this pointspread makes them a 10* play in this first meeting of this season. |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 123 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: NFL Week 8 concludes with a MNF matchup featuring an AFC West showdown between the 3-3 Denver Broncos and the 5-2 KC Chiefs. Both teams limp in off back-to-back losses, with the Broncos coming off having been shut out last Sunday 21-0 by the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs opened the 2017 season at 5-0 but then lost 19-13 at home to the Steelers, before losing a Thursday night Week 7 game at Oakland 31-30, when the Raiders scored on the game's final play. Denver: Trevor Siemian has taken a lot of the 'heat' for the Broncos' 21-0 loss to the Chargers but he sure hasn't been helped by the fact that C.J. Anderson, after rushing for at least 81 yards in three of the team's first four games, has totaled just 61 yards on the ground over the team's last two games (both losses). Anderson had just 44 yards vs. the Chargers, with Siemian going 25 of 35 passing with an interception (only 207 yards). The Broncos are averaging only 18.0 PPG (24th) but the team's defense is holding opponents to an NFL-low 258.5 YPG! That said, Denver's allowing 19.7 PPG, which is only 11th-best. Kansas City: The Chiefs have dropped two straight but don't look for their QB to be at fault. Alex Smith has continued to carve out a career-best season," completing 72.4 percent with 15 TD passes and zero INTs (in 228 pass attempts) for a QB rating of 120.5. TE Kelce (37 catches and & TDs) and WR Hill (36 catches & 5 TDs) have been terrific, as has rookie RB Hunt. He's run for 717 yards (5.8 YPC & 4 TDs) plus caught 25 passes for three TDs. What 'killed' KC in the last-second loss at Oakland was an 'ugly' outing from the Chiefs’ defense, which allowed 505 yards and 32 FDs. KC's defense has slacked off in 2017 (while the offense has surged), allowing 23.0 PPG (21st) on 396.3 YPG, which ranks 30th out of 32 teams (unusual for an Andy Reid-coached team). The pick: No doubt that Denver catches KC in a bad mood after back-to-back losses plus Chiefs have had three extra days to stew about taht bitter Thursday loss at Oakland.It's also true taht Trevor Siemian's confidence could be somewhat shaken and Denver's only other option at QB is Brock Osweiler (OUCH!). However, Denver is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Kansas City.and this is a lot points for this bitter rivalry, especially considering Denver is allowing about 140 YPG less than KC on the season! Take those points and make Denver a 10* play. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1 v. Redskins | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 95 h 11 m | Show |
The set: One of the NFL's best rivalries is set for Week 8 at FedEx Field on Sunday, with an NFC East matchup between the 3-3 Dallas Cowboys and the 3-3 Washington Redskins. The Cowboys are coming off a 40-10 win at San Francisco, rebounding after losing back-to-back games versus the Rams and Packers. Meanwhile, the Redskins are off a 34-24 MNF loss in Philly against the Eagles, which left both Dallas and Washington 2 1/2 games back of the first-place 6-1 Eagles in the NFC East. Dallas: Ezekiel Elliott has been fighting a six-game suspension in court and that drama will last at least one more week with another hearing scheduled for Monday. He's coming off his best game of the season last week at San Francisco, when he rushed for 147 yards and two TDs, while also adding a 72-yard receiving score. Elliott has 540 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and four TDs. QB Dak Prescott is having another excellent season, passing for 234 yards and three TDs last Sunday. He's now thrown for 1,426 yards with 14 TDs and only four INTs (98.2 QB rating). He's run for 152 yards (7.6 YPC) with four TDs, as part of a Dallas ground game averaging 147.5 YPG (2nd). Washington: Kirk Cousins played well Monday night (303 yards with three TDs) but he couldn't match Philly's Wentz (4 TDs). He enters this game completing 68.3 percent with 12 TDs and three INTs for a 107.2 QB rating. Washington's running game isn't much and the Redskins rank 11th in scoring 23.5 PPG. The defense ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing 24.5 PPG (26th). The pick: Washington saw three offensive linemen injured against the Eagles. Left tackle Trent Williams aggravated his right knee, right tackle Morgan Moses sprained both ankles and right guard Brandon Scherff suffered a knee sprain. Center Spencer Long (knee) is also hurting. With 13 players limited or worse, the Redskins didn't even practice Wednesday, opting instead for a walk-through. That can't be good news, playing on a short week. Keeping Elliott on the field for this game is huge for Dallas, as he and Prescott continue to give the Cowboys quite a 1-2 punch. Note that Prescott's 14 TD passes through six games has only been bettered in franchise history by Don Meredith (1966) and Tony Romo (2009), who each had 15 TD passes. The Dallas D is still a little suspect but the offense, averaging 33.7 PPG the last three games, 'covers' the day. Make Dallas an 8* play. |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 92 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-4 Oakland Raiders will travel to Buffalo's NewEra Field on Sunday afternoon to take on the 4-2 Bills. The Raiders were a 'sexy' pick to strongly compete for the AFC title in 2017 and after opening with a 26-16 win at Tennessee and then routing the Jets 45-10 at home, expectations were "off the chart." However, the Raiders lost four in a row, before snapping their slide with a last-second victory in a Week 7 Thursday game, 31-30 at home against the hated-Chiefs. Meanwhile, new Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has his team at 4-2, one of NFL 2017's true surprises. The Bills edged the Bucs 30-27 last Sunday, improving to 3-0 SU at home and on the season, have gone 4-1-1 ATS in all games. Oakland: QB Derek Carr got off to a great start but a fractured bone in his back slowed him. He returned to the lineup after missing one game but he had a mediocre game in the Raiders' 17-16 home loss to the Rams in Week 6 (171 YP / one TD / 2 INTs / 67.5 QB rating). However, he returned to form against the Chiefs, passing for 417 yards and three TDs. The vertical passing game has been a staple in Oakland since the franchise's inception but deep threat Amari Cooper had just 18 catches while averaging only 8.1 YPC on the season going into that game with KC, when he broke out with 11 catches for 210 yards and two TDs. TE Jared Cook joined the 100-yard club himself, with six catches for 107 yards. However, Oakland's running game continues to be bust (Lynch is no 'beast,' rather just a pain in the ass), as Oakland will enter this game averaging 92.9 YPG on the ground (24th). The Oakland D ranks 26th in yards allowed (360.6 per) and 18th in scoring at 22.3 PPG. Buffalo: QB Tyrod Taylor threw for 268 yards and a TD on 20 of 33 passing, against the Bucs but Buffalo will come into this game ranking 29th (of 32 teams) with only 181.0 YPG through the air. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing last year (164.4 YPG on 5.3 YPC), led by LeSean McCoy 's 1,267 yards (5.4 YPC and 13 rushing TDs). However, the Bills were averaging only 106.6 YPG on 3.4 YPC heading into last Sunday. There was good news though, as McCoy ran for 91 yards and a pair of rushing scores plus led the team with five receptions. As a team, Buffalo ran for 173 yards, which is "much more like it!" Buffalo's D has also held its own so far in 2017, allowing 16.8 PPG to rank 4th. The pick: Isn't it interesting that new Bills hed coach Sean McDermott has been coaxing a lot more out of the Buffalo “D” than Rex Ryan ("the defensive genius") did the past two years! Buffalo's revamped 2ndary has nine INTs, which in concert with a mistake-free offense (only three giveaways), leaves Buffalo with an NFL-best plus-10 TO margin. Make the Bills a 10* play. |
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10-28-17 | Washington State -3 v. Arizona | Top | 37-58 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington State Cougars are 7-1 (4-1 in Pac 12) and will travel to Arizona Stadium to take on the 5-2 Arizona Wildcats (3-1 in Pac 12) this Saturday night. The Cougars rose to No. 8 in the AP poll on Oct. 8 but the following week were crushed 37-3 at Cal, when QB Luke Falk threw five INTs. Washington rebounded last Saturday and shut out Colorado 28-0. The Arizona Wildcats defeated those very same Cal Bears this past Saturday, 45-44 in double OT. However, the Wildcats are still searching for a marquee win, as Arizona's lone game against a ranked opponent was a 30-24 home loss to then-No. 23 Utah, back on Sep. 23. Arizona leads the all-time series 26-16 but Washington State has won the last two meetings, including a 69-7 rout in Pullman last season. Washington State: The Cougars are currently No. 15 in the AP poll and tied with Stanford at 4-1 (Stanford plays Thursday night) in the Pac 12 North (Washington lurks at 3-1). QB Luke Falk is the NCAA's active career leader in passing yards with 13,376, TD passes with 111 and yards per game at 343. He needs 225 yards passing to break former Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion's Pac-12 passing record of 13,600 yards and six TDs to break former USC quarterback Matt Barkley's Pac-12 passing TD record of 116. Who knows where his five-INT game vs. Cal came from, as in Washington State's seven wins, Falk has 22 TDs and just two INTs (in 296 pass attempts)! Mike Leach's teams have always been known fro their offense (especially through the air) but the reason the 2017 Cougars have a chance to make some real 'noise' is because the team enters this contest allowing just 18.5 PPG (21st) on 274.5 YPG (7th). In Leach's previous five years in Pullman, the Cougars have allowed anywhere from a low of 26.4 PPG (2016) to a high of 38.6 PPG (2014). Arizona: The Wildcats are averaging 43.1 PPG (5th) on 514.7 YPG (7th), with QB Khalil Tate sparking a ground game which has averaged 343.4 YPG (4th) on 7.0 YPC. Tate took over as the starting QB after Arizona opened 2-2 and has led the Wildcats to three straight wins, in which they've averaged 45.7 PPG. Tate has 694 rushing yards in the winning streak (231.4 per game) and has scored seven rushing TDs (he's completed 75.6% in the steak with four TDs and one INT). Arizona's defense will have its hands full with Falk, as the Wildcats are allowing 425.4 YPG (98th), including 257.6 YPG through the air (99th). The pick: Arizona prevented the game winning two-point conversation attempt by the Golden Bears last Saturday but know how much tougher it will be here vs. Washington State. Tate will face his toughest test yet, up against WSU's smothering front-7, which is allowing a modest 120.6 YPG on the ground (23rd). Throw in that the Cougars are a money-making 16-8 ATS on the road since 2013 and it's an 8* play on Washington State. |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Penn State Nittany Lions are ranked No. 2 behind Alabama and looked every bit like the nation's second-ranked team last Saturday, taking down then-No. 109 Michigan, 42-13. Saquon Barkley ran for 108 yards (just 15 carries) and two TDs plus added a juggling 42-yard TD catch for a third score. QB Trace McSorley also had a huge game, throwing for 282 yards and a TD, while rushing for 76 yards and scoring three times on the ground. All the while, the 6th-ranked Buckeyes had teh weekend off and were surelty plotting how they woulkd deal with not only Penn State's offense (averaging 40.0 PPG) but with a defense which ranks first ins coring (9.6 PPG) on 282.9 YPG (ranks 9th). Penn State: Speaking about not forgetting, Penn State won't forget last year, either. The Nittany Lions not only topped Ohio State but also won the Big Ten East and the Big Ten championship game over Wisconsin. However, when all the dust had settled, it was Ohio Stae which advanced to the four-team CFP from the Big Ten, not Penn State! The Nittany Lions' dramatic upset of Ohio State last season featured a fourth-quarter rally capped by a blocked FG returned for a TD. However, Penn State was out-gained 413-to-276 in that game, so it will have to paly much better here, to pull off a win. Penn State's offense revolves around Barkley, who leads the country in all-purpose yards and has scored a TD in 14 consecutive games. The Nittany Lions will use him in multiple ways as they did last week against Michigan, taking direct snaps, split wide, in the slot and on kickoff returns.That said, Penn St. will also need for McSorley to step up, unlike last season , when he was just 8 of 23 for 154 passing yards. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have been playing "catch up" ever since losing 31-16 at home to Oklahoma Sep. 9. That said, they've been doing quite a good job indeed of catching up! Ohio State has steamrolled opponents since its early loss to Oklahoma, winning five in a row by an average of 42.0 PPG, The Buckeyes have topped 500 yards of offense in each of those five straight victories (the longest such streak in team history), and will enter this game tied for the FBS lead in scoring at 47.3 PPG. Ohio State averages 577.3 YPG, which ranks 3rd. J.T. Barrett has "been on a mission" since not playing well vs. Oklahoma, completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 1,361 yards (270.2 per) with 18 TD passes and not a single iNT in 137 pass attempts. He's added 232 rushing yards, along with four TDs on the ground. Lat year's star freshman RB Weber has been slowed by injuries (just 227 YR / 4 TDs) but freshman Dobbins has picked up the slack, rushing for 775 yards on 7.8 YPC (5 TDs). Ohio State can't quite match Penn State's defensive stats but the Buckeyes are allowing a modest 15.4 PPG (10th) on 305.3 YPG (16th) The pick: It's bordering on sacrilege at Ohio State to say there's a bigger game on the schedule than its annual game with hated rival Michigan but a loss here at home to Penn Sate, would likely make OSU's season-ender at Ann Arbor insignificant. Ohio State has rolled over 'cupcakes' but now has a real test. However, the Buckeyes had won 11 of the previous 14 meetings prior to last year's encounter, one which they dominated, statistically. One last thought. Ohio State is off a bye and Urban-Meyer coached teams are a perfect 20-0 SU run following a bye, last losing when he was back coaching Bowling Green. Lay the points and make Ohio St. a 10* play. |
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10-28-17 | Buffalo University v. Akron -3 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -125 | 68 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: It's the final Saturday in October for college football and as has become a custom, the MAC will dominate weekday games in November. In fact, the only MAC teams playing on Saturday will be the Buffalo Bulls (3-5 / 1-3 in the MAC) taking on the Akron Zips (4-4 / 3-1 in the MAC). Buffalo last had a winning season in 2013 and is coming off a 2-10 season in 2016. Buffalo's 24-14 loss last Saturday at Miami-O makes it three straight defeats and leaves them 1-3 in the MAC East. Akron is coming off its first conference loss this season last Saturday, falling 48-21 at Toledo. However, the Zips are still 3-1 in the MAC East, tied with Ohio U at the top of the division. Buffalo: Drew Anderson is Buffalo's best QB (10 TDs / 1 INT) but is doubtful in this contest with a shoulder injury (he missed last Saturday's loss). With Anderson, Buffalo is a mediocre offense but without him, the Bulls are in trouble. Down to its third QB at Miami last Saturday, the Bulls gained just 271 yards and have averaged just 2.3 YPC on the ground in their three games. Buffalo's defense is allowing 25.1 PPG (61st) on 407.6 YPG (80th). Akron: The Zips were gashed for 626 yards by Toledo and on the season have allowed 443.0 YPG (108th) and 25.6 PPG (63rd). Both Thomas Woodson and Robbie Kelly played QB last time out for Akron, combining to go 23 of 40 for 291 yards with three TDs and an interception. Woodson is the starter and has 11 TDs and seven INTs on the season. However, the Zips can't afford to run for just 42 yards like they did last Saturday on 24 carries. On the season, Akron is averaging only 114.9 YPG (116th). Defensively, Akron is allowing 25.6 PPG (63rd) on 443.0 YPG (108th). The pick: Getting bowled over by Toledo is one thing but Buffalo is another story. Buffalo was 0-6 SU on the road in 2016 and is 1-3 here in 2017. Considering the visitor has lost eight of the last nine in this series, making Akron an 8* play "feels just right!" |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -3 v. Boston College | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -125 | 52 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Florida State opened the 2-017 season ranked No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll but right out of the box, had a date with No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta on Sep. 2, The Seminoles lost more than a game in that contest, as in the fourth quarter of Alabama's 24-7 win, FSU lost its starting QB, Deondre Francois, to a season-ending injury. FSU will visit Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Ma. with a 2-4 record on Friday, to take on 4-4 BC Eagles. Who could have ever predicted that this game, on the last Saturday of October, would see the Eagles entering with twice as many wins as the Seminoles? Florida State: True freshman James Blackman has stepped in at QB, completing 57.6 percent for 1,047 yards with seven TDs and six INTs. RBs Akers (454 on 5.2 YPC) and Patrick (434 on 5.7 YPG) both own impressive YPC averages but FSU only averages 146,4 YPG on the ground (87th), which isn't enough with a passing attack averaging only 209.5 YPG (77th). More bad news is that Patrick (knee) is now likely out for the rest of season. FSU entered this season having averaged 30-plus PPG in every season since 2008, last averaging under that figure back in 2007, at 23.3 PPG. The 2017 edition is averaging a pathetic 19.8 PPG (116th). The defense has been solid (22.5 PPG ranks 45th and 350.3 YPG ranks 33rd) but with the team's offensive woes, it hasn't much mattered. Boston College: The Eagles are now 4-4 (2-3 in the ACC), after winning three of their last four games. Last Saturday's 41-10 win at Virginia saw redshirt freshman QB Antony Brown have his best game of the season, throwing for 275 yards with three TDs. "We have scored 40 points in back-to-back games, the first time the school has ever done that in the history of Boston College," head coach Steve Addazio told reporters this week. "Either Big East or ACC and first time in the ACC since we have been in that we have had two back-to-back over five hundred yards of offense. I think that helps you and it builds confidence." The pick: OK, Boston College does enter in better form than FSU, as the Eagles are on a five-game winning ATS run and in back-to-back wins, have discovered a one-two 'punch' with freshman RB Dillon (361 rushing yard) complementing QB Brown. That said, after 41-and 45-point games (as well as running up 500-plus yards in each), the Eagles are still averaging a modest 23.0 PPG (101st) on 375.2 YPG (88th) for the season. Bottom line is this. Florida State is 7-0 SU against Boston College under Fisher and this line is more than 'doable.' Make FSU a 10* play. |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami's 2017 season began with the Dolphins having to postpone their Week 1 game with Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Irma. It was rescheduled for Week 11 when both the Dolphins and Bucs had a bye week. That means both Miami and Tampa Bay will play 16 consecutive weeks, not the best of circumstances. However, winning their last three games, after a 1-2 start, sure has the Dolphins in a much better mood. While Miami is streaking, the Ravens' season has gone 'south.' Baltimore opened 2-0 but enters this contest having lost four of their last five, leaving them 3-4 (already two games back of the Steelers in the AFC North).. Miami: The Dolphins enter off wins over the Titans, Falcons and Jets. In that 31-28 win over New York in Week 7, Miami Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler and aided the comeback going 13 of 21 for 188 yards with two TDs and one INT (102.9 QB rating). That's much better than what Miami has seen from Cutler, who has averaged a woeful 150.3 YPG passing with seven TDs and five INTs, posting a 78.8 QB rating (approaching Flacco range!). Jay Ajayi is the leading rusher with 442 yards but the team averages only 81.7 YPG on 3.3 YPC. Defensively, Miami has been good, allowing 308.2 YPG (10th) and 18.7 PPG (7th). Baltimore: QB Joe Flacco missed Baltimore's entire preseason but the Ravens went 4-0. In retrospect, maybe that was a bad sign? I noted that Baltimore started the 2017 season 2-0 but Flacco sure wasn't the reason, as he passed for only 338 yards with three TDs and two INTs. Baltimore's defense allowed just 10 points those first two games and let's also note that the wins came over the Bengals and Browns (now a combined 2-11). Baltimore's defense has allowed 27.6 PPG in losing four of five and Flacco has been awful, with two TDs and six INTs. On the season, he has five TD passes and eight INTs, as Baltimore ranks 32nd in passing yards (157.4 YPG), with Flacco's QB rating of 70.0 ranking 31st among 32 starting QBs. Baltimore's running game is middle-of-the-pack and its rushing D ranks dead last, allowing 145.3 YPG. The pick: The Ravens season is surely at a 'tipping point,' as after this home game with the Dolphins, they'll play at Tennessee, have a bye week and then play at Green Bay. Lose here and any outside postseason hopes are all but dead, just halfway through the 2017 season. Matt Moore led Miami back from a 14-point deficit with a 17-point fourth quarter but John Elway, he isn't. He's a journeyman who is preparing to make his 29th career regular-season start. He's 15-13 as a starter and his career QB rating is 82.5. He'll take the field for a team unable to run the ball (see above), as the Dolphins still do not own a rushing TD. The Dolphins have been 'playing with fire' in their recent comeback wins but get 'burnt' here in Week. 8 Make Baltimore a 10* play. |
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10-26-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia State | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: It's another weekday Sun Belt Conference game Thursday night at Turner Field in Atlanta, as the 3-4 South Alabama Jaguars take on the 3-3 Georgia State Panthers. Both schools are 2-1 in SBC play but will have a tough time competing with the Appalachian State (4-0) and Arkansas State, which represent the "class" of this non-Power Conference league. The Jaguars have lost to Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Idaho and LA. Tech, while earning wins over Alabama A&M, Troy and UL Monroe. Georgia State owns victories over Charlotte, Coastal Carolina and UL Monroe, while losing to Tennessee State, Penn State and Troy. South Alabama: The Jags won for the second straight time this past Saturday, 33-23 at home over UL Monroe. QB Dallas Davis put was 20 of 33 for 317 yards with three TD passes. He only has seven TD passes on the season plus has thrown for a modest 924 yards. The offense is averaging only 24.3 PPG (94th) on 345.4 YPG (108th) with teh defense allowing 26.4 YPG (66th) on 413.3 YPG (85th). Georgia State: The Panthers entered last Saturday's home contest with Troy on a three-game winning streak (all on the road) but ground to halt in a 34-10 loss. QB Conner Manning threw for 255 yards with one TD and one interception but got no help from his running game, as Glenn Smith led the team's rushing attack (pardon the pun) with 19 yards on 11 carries. As a team, the Panthers ran for just 52 yards on 33 attempts. That's not exactly new, as Ga. State ranks 117th with 114.2 YPG on the ground for the season. Manning has thrown for 1,516 yards but has a modest seven TDs with five INTs. The offense limps into this contest averaging only 20.3 PPG (114th) on 383.0 YPG (84th). The defense allows 27.5 PPG (76th) on 406.0 YPG (79th). The pick: South Alabama can say it's been to bowl games two of the last three seasons (and that's true) but the Jags have lost both of those games, each year finishing 6-7. South Alabama last posted a winning season back in 2011, at 6-4. Georgia State has been pretty much over-matched since moving up to FBS play in 2013, going a combined 1-23 its first two seasons. The Panthers did go 6-6 in 2015 but lost their bowl game to finish 6-7. Last year, the Panthers regressed again, going 3-9. This is a home game but is that an advantage? Georgia State's three wins have all come away from home in 2017, as the Panthers are 0-2 here at home, scoring just 10 points in losing to Tennessee St (Aug. 31) and on Oct. 21 to Troy. A win here for South Alabama gets them to 4-4 and puts them in great position to win six or seven games in 2017. The Jags do have to play Arkansas State (it's at home, though) but the team's other remaining games are against ULL (3-4), Ga. Southern (0-6) and New Mexico State (3-4). Make South Alabama a 10* play. |
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10-25-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs have opened 3-0, despite missing all-everything forward Kawhi Leonard, who remains out while dealing with right quadriceps tendinopathy. The Spurs have also made do without long-time PG Tony Parker (left quadriceps tendon surgery). San Antonio travels to South Beach Wednesday night to face the Miami Heat, who have opened 2-1. Miami center Hassan Whiteside is expected to miss his third straight game with a bone bruise on his left knee. Ironically, Whiteside went for 26 & 22 in Miami's season-opener at Orlando but the Heat lost. Without Whiteside, the team has won home games over the Pacers and Hawks. San Antonio: LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up with Leonard out, averaging 24.3 & 9.3. He is also helping out on the defensive end and provided the highlight of Monday's 101-97 win over the Raptors with a chase-down block of Toronto point guard Kyle Lowry as the Spurs held their third consecutive opponent under 100 points to start the season. Dejounte Murray surprisingly beat out Patty Mills in training camp for the right to replace Tony Parker as the team's starting PG and he's been up to the challenge, averaging 13.3-9.7-4.7. Danny Green 14.3) and Rudy Gay (12.3) also averaging in double digits. Miami: Along with Whiteside, PG Dragic (quad bruise) and SG Waiters (ankle) are also hurting for Miami. Dragic plans to be available for Wednesday's game and if Waiters is unable to go, the Heat have plenty of other options at the shooting guard spot. Josh Richardson had a team-high 21 points in Miami's win over Atlanta and is averaging 14.3 PPG, while Wayne Ellington came off the bench and buried 6-of-8 from three-point range against the Hawks, after going 2-of-10 from beyond the arc in the first two games. The pick: Both teams are dealing with injury issues but the absence of Whiteside is a bigger concern in this game. Jordan Mickey started the last two games in place of Whiteside and averaged five points and six rebounds in 14.5 minutes. That worked vs. the Pacers and Hawks but will not vs. the Spurs, who are holding opponents to just 91.0 PPG, despite playing without Leonard (arguably, the league's best defensive player). San Antonio enters this contest having won nine straight in the series, going back to Game 3 of the 2014 NBA Finals. Make the Spurs an 8* play. |
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10-24-17 | Nets v. Magic -4 | Top | 121-125 | Push | 0 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brooklyn Nets are 2-1 to open the new season, despite allowing 121.7 PPG, which ranks 29th, ahead of only the Suns. The Nets are pushing the pace, driving and crashing the lane plus firing away from three-point range. The result has been a scoring average of 124.7 PPG, which is tops in the NBA. The Nets placed six players in double digits in Friday's 126-121 home win over the Magic and tonight will visit Amway Arena to take on the Magic, who have also opened a surprising 2-1. Brooklyn: The Nets were just 20-62 last year and lost PG Jeremy Lin (for the season) in the team's opener of this new season. D'Angelo Russell has taken on the role of playmaker with Lin sidelined and he handed out a season-high 10 assists in Sunday's 116-104 win to boost his averages to 21 .0 PPG and 7.0 APG. Allen Crabbe had a team-high 20 points on 7-of-12 shooting on Sunday. However, Crabbe is still on a minute restriction due to a preseason ankle injury. Brooklyn is second in the NBA going into Monday's action in free-throw attempts (33.7) while shooting 37.6 percent from three-point range but one thing the Nets could do better is cutting down on fouls. Opponents are averaging 27.7 foul shots per game against the Nets after the Hawks took 36 free throws Sunday. Orlando: The Magic are coming off one of the most impressive victories of this young season, a 114-93 triumph at Cleveland on Saturday. Center Nikola Vucevic scored a career-high 41 points on 17-of-22 shooting in the loss at Brooklyn on Friday, then followed by scoring 23 points on 11-of-16 from the floor at Cleveland. Vucevic is averaging 27.7 points and 10.7 rebounds on 68 percent shooting from the floor (34 of 50), including 50 percent from three-point range (7 of 14). His efforts on the interior opened up space on the perimeter and the Magic were able to knock down 17 three-pointers at Cleveland. "We’re starting to play offensively consistently the right way in terms of not settling and understanding that we want to attack early and the ball is really hopping," coach Frank Vogel told reporters. "We’re scoring the ball well and shooting the ball well as a result of the ball movement and the quality of our shots." The pick: At 2-1, the Nets are above .500 for the first time since they were 4-3 on Nov. 12, 2014 and the Nets are now in a position to start 3-1 for the first time since the 2007-08 season. Is that asking too much? As for the Magic, who were just 29-53 last year, they are seeking their first 3-1 start since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. "Again, it's too early to make any big judgments about this (team), but it's an early positive sign for us," Orlando coach Frank Vogel said. "With how we're playing offensively and moving the basketball, we're facilitating everything and everybody feels good about our chemistry. Everybody is playing with the basketball the right way, thinking extra pass and playing for each other. That's how chemistry is established." The home team has won each of the last five meetings in the series and revenge (from Friday) works here for the Magic. Make Orlando an 8* play. |
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10-23-17 | Kings v. Suns -1.5 | Top | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: It's one thing to open 0-3 and another to have lost all three games by an average margin of 30.7 PPG (two losses by 40-plus points) while allowing league-worsts of 128.7 PPG on 51.5 percent shooting (including 50.0 percent on threes). Head coach Earl Watson began his second full year on the job this season after being promoted from assistant coach to interim coach when Jeff Hornacek was fired on Feb. 1, 2016. Watson signed a three-year contract as head coach on April 19, 2016 but the team announced Sunday night that associate head coach Jay Triano is taking over for Watson as interim head coach. The Suns went 33-85 on his watch. Triano's first game will be against the Sacramento Kings on Monday night, who visit Phoenix after opening 1-2. Sacramento: The Kings are finishing up a three-game, four-day road trip that has seen them win 93-88 at Dallas but then lose 96-79 at Denver on Saturday. Zach Randolph was the lone Sacramento starter to score in double figures and he finished with only 11 points as the team's starting-five combined to shoot 10-for-38 from the floor. Rookie De'Aaron Fox made a splash off the bench with 18 points on 8-of-13 shooting to go along with five rebounds in a team-high 29 minutes. Fox currently leads the etam in scoring (13.7 PPG) and assists (5.3 per), while adding 5.0 RPG. Forward Skal Labissiere chipped in 13 points but there were very few other contributions for a team the Suns may just be able to beat. Phoenix: Guard Eric Bledsoe followed up a 28-point performance in a two-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday with a four-point, four-turnover effort against the Clippers on Sunday. Bledsoe summed up his frustration in a tweet before Sunday's announcement of the coaching change surfaced. "I Dont wanna be here," it read. The Suns are the second-youngest team in the league in terms of average age, with four players still 20 and another 19. Watson tinkered with the lineup this season, putting power forward Marquese Chriss on the bench and starting two small forwards, TJ Warren and rookie Josh Jackson. Among many other things, that hasn't worked. Triano spent parts of four seasons (2008-11) as head coach of the Toronto Raptors. He is in his second season with the Suns after spending four years as an assistant with the Portland Trail Blazers, one when Watson was a player there. The pick: It would be impossible for the Suns to play any worse but as noted, the Kings may just be exactly "what the doctor ordered." The NBA's worst defensive team (Phoenix) will welcome a team averaging just 90.7 PPG (second-lowest scoring average in the NBA) and playing its third road game in four nights. Take the points and make the Suns a 10* play. |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles -4 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Are the Eagles the NFC's best team? They just may be and a win tonight over NFC East rival Washington would only add more 'fuel' to that claim. Philadelphia is 5-1, losing only at KC, while owning wins over the Redskins, Giants, Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers. The Eagles beat the Redskins back in Week 1, 30-17 at Washington and now get a return match with them here at Lincoln Financial Field on “Monday Night Football.” Washington comes in 3-2 and a victory would leave the Redskins just a half-game out of first place in the NFC East but a loss would mean both Washington and Dallas would be 3-3, while Philadelphia would own a commanding 6-1 record, 2 1/2 games clear of its division rivals. Washington: QB Kirk Cousins is having another fine season completing 66.5% for 1,334 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating). However, his worst game of the 2017 season came in Washington's Week 1 home loss to the Eagles, when Cousins completed only 57.5% with one TD and one INT, earning a QB rating of only 72.9. The running game does not have a player with more than 175 yards on the season but still ranks 10th, averaging 122.8 YPG on the ground. RB Rob Kelley is dealing with an ankle injury, which could mean the bulk of playing time will go to rookie Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, who already has recorded two 100-yard receiving performances and made four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Cousins does come in off a strong three-game stretch and now leads the NFC with that 106.4 QB rating. WRs Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder continue to struggle but the TE tandem of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis has combined for 29 catches. Defensively, the Eagles rank 12th in total yards (316.0 per) but not as high in points allowed (22.6 PPG ranks 19th). Philadelphia: Wentz is off to a strong start in his sophomore season, with 13 TDs and just three INTs (99.6 QB rating). RB LeGarrette Blount (390 yards on 5.6 YPC) is starting to make his presence felt while a a very good OL helps the running game check in at 132.5 YPG (4th-best in the NFL). TE Ertz has 34 catches and WR Agholor has 20, with both owning four TD grabs apiece. Philly's rush D will surely test Washington's running game, as the Eagles are allowing an NFL-low 65.7 YPG on the ground. The pick: Recent series history favors Washington, as Jay Gruden had beaten Philly five in a row prior to losing in Week 1 (Washington self-destructed with four giveaways). Also, the Redskins come in on an 8-3 ATS run as a road dog and that includes that fluke non-cover at KC in Week 4's MNF game! However, I believe the Eagles are "for real." They have won four straight (covered the last three) since losing at KC, while averaging 28.8 PPG, as Philadelphia has now scored at least 20 points in 10 straight games, the league's longest active streak. Wentz is proving to be a cool, calm and collected leader. Make the Eagles a 10* play. |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 128 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a Super Bowl rematch at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night (NBC), as the Atlanta Falcons take on the New England Patriots. The Falcons led 21-3 at the half of last year's Super Bowl and 28-3 in the third quarter of last season's game. However, the Patriots engineered the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL's 'ultimate game,' leaving the Falcons and their fans stunned with a 34-28 OT final which produced the fifth championship of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era (or should that read, the Brady/Belichick era?). The 2017 versions of the teams meet Sunday night and each team has reason to "not be confident!' Atlanta opened 3-0 but back-to-back losses to the Bills and Dolphins leaves them just 3-2 (blew a 17-0 halftime lead at home to Miami last Sunday). The Pats are 4-2 but easily could have lost at home to Houston and last Sunday, were the beneficiaries of a highly-controversial fumble/touchback call in their 24-17 win at the Jets. Atlanta: Matt Ryan was deservedly the MVP of the 2016 season, throwing for 4,944 yards with 38 TDs and seven INTs for a 117.1 QB rating. However, after five games, he's got a 6-6 ratio and a QB rating of just 87.3. The RB tandem of Freeman (353 YR on 4.5 YPC with 5 TDs plus 11 catches) and Coleman (213 YR on 5.6 YPC with 1 TD plus 14 catches) is still potent but the Falcons' offense has looked 'off!' Atlanta led the NFL in scoring (33.8 PPG) in 2016, while finishing second in total yards (415.8 YPG). Here in 2017, those numbers are 24.2 PPG (12th) on 378.4 YPG (5th). The defense has allowed about 60 YPG more than in 2016 and 25,4 PPG, after allowing 21.8 PPG last season. New England. What to make of the Pats in 2017? Brady is still awesome, with 13 TDs and just two INTs (106.9 QB rating), leading an offense averaging 28.7 PPG (5th-best). The Pats lead the nFL in passing (309.8 YPG), which is the reason the team also owns the most YPG (412.0 per), in the entire NFL. However, no team has allowed more overall yards (440.7 per) or passing yards (324,8 per) than New England. All six opposing QBs have thrown for 300-plus yards against New England (never happened before), as the Pats' pass D has allowed 14 TDs and has just five INTs (104.4 opposing QB rating is third-worst in the NFL). The pick: No way Atlanta can be brimming with confidence after it incredibly blew a 17-0 halftime lead in its 20-17 home upset loss to previously-struggling Miami last Sunday. Add to that, the fact that the Pats lost their most recent home game (33-30 in Week in Week 4 to that Panthers) and that New England hasn’t dropped consecutive home games since 2008. The poinstspread is surely not much of an impost but this New England team is just "not right" here in 2017. The Falcons own a much-better balanced offense and neither team's defense seems capable of stopping the opposing team's offense. I WANT the points. Make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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10-22-17 | Hawks +2 v. Nets | Top | 104-116 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: How many realize that behind the San Antonio Spurs, the second-longest streak of consecutive NBA playoff appearances belongs to the Atlanta Hawks. Yes, the Hawks have been to 10 staright postseason but that run will be tested in 2017-18. Atlanta got no favors from teh schedule-makers, as the Hawks must begin the seaon with five straight games on the road. The Hawks looked impressive in a 117-111 win at the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday but shot 37.9 percent in a 109-91 loss at Charlotte on Friday, squandering a 20-point first-half lead. The Hawks will be in Brooklyn tonight, to take on the 1-1 Nets. Brooklyn opened with a 140-131 loss at Indiana on Wednesday and then, playing its their first game since learning that PG Jeremy Lin will miss the rest of the regular season with a ruptured patella tendon on Friday, beat the Orlando Magic 126-121 in the team's home opener. |
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10-22-17 | Panthers -3 v. Bears | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 13 m | Show |
Carolina: Newton was Carolina's lone offensive producer against the Eagles, as ran for 71 yards (on 11 attempts), while the rest of the team had just nine rushing yards on 14 carries. That won't work! Newton was forced to throw 52 times, completing 28 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5. That was quite a drop off from him completing 77.4 percent for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT in back-to-back road wins at New England and Detroit. The good news so far is that Carolina's D ranks 4th in total yards (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG (down from 25.1 PPG in 2016). Chicago: Mitch Trubisky will make his third career start in this one. He earned his first victory last week but has passed for only 241 yards in his two starts, with two TDs and an interception (owns a 73.3 QB rating). He has averaged only 20.5 passes per game, as the Bears continue to rely heavily on the ground game, which is No. 1 in the NFC and No. 3 in the NFL at 136.0 YPG. RB Jordan Howard has amassed 495 rushing yards (167 yards in Week 6) and four TDs through his his first six games. The Bears are averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and that won't get the job done with the defense allowing 24.7 PPG (25th). The pick: The Bears come into this contest 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win (beat the Ravens in Week 6), while the Panthers are 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017 (one of five NFL teams that are unbeaten away from home in 2017). Cam Newton vs. Mitch Trubisky seems like a total mismatch plus Chicago's rushing attack will get a severe test against Carolina's rush D, which comes in allowing only 83.3 YPG to rank 5th-best in the NFL. Carolina has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. Make the Panthers a 10* play. |
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10-22-17 | Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Long-time AFC East rivals the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins meet Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. The 3-3 Jets are coming off a controversial 24-17 home loss to the Pats in Week 6, while the Dolphins improved to 3-2 with their best effort of the season, a 20-17 comeback win on the road over the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons. The Jets squandered a 14-0 lead but were hurt when an apparent TD was ruled a fumble and a touchback on a still-controversial call, eventually losing 24-17. The Dolphins fell behind the Falcons 17-0 at halftime last Sunday but somehow came back to win 2017. NY Jets: "I think the whole stadium felt (the call) was wrong," Jets safety Jamal Adams told the media in New York. However, the Jets know they have to move on. Journeyman QB Josh McCown completed 75.0% of his throws in the Jets' three-game winning streak and then passed for 354 yards in the loss to the Pats. McCown is going to need more help from New York's "no-name" RBs, as New York ranks a modest 18th in averaging 105.2 YPG on the ground. Overall, the Jets average just 318.7 YPG (21st) and ranks 26th in scoring at 18.2 PPG. The Jets' D is allowing 358.0 YPG (24th) but only 21.7 PPG, which ranks 12th Miami: The Dolphins took the field for the second half of last week's game in Atlanta, down 17-0. It continued a sad trend for Miami, as the team's offense had scored just one non-garbage-time TD over the past 15 quarters. However, Miami scored two TDs in the third quarter, before Cody Parkey added two FGs in the fourth quarter to get Miami the "W." Miami’s offense had been dismal until its third-quarter revival against the Falcons, although it was good news that RB Jay Ajayi broke out of a slump with 130 rushing yards last week. QB Jay Cutler's "un-retirement" has not gone well, as he has just five TD passes and four INTs with Miami ranking 32nd in passing offense with 155.4 YPG (Cutler's QB rating is a poor 75.2). Defensively, the Dolphins have been very good, allowing just 16.8 PPG to rank 3rd. The pick: It's just Week 7 but this is the second meeting of 2017 for these division rivals. The teams met at MetLife Stadium in Week 3, when the Dolphins were a six-point road favorite and the Jets won handily, 20-6. Both teams have greatly surpassed preseason expectations, with both defenses showing well. However, despite Miami's remarkable second-half comeback last week, they come into this game ranked last in scoring (12.2 PPG), last in total offense (242.8 YPG), last in passing yards (155.4 YPG) and 27th in rushing offense (87.4 YPG). How does one lay points with this team? In fact, Miami is a money-burning 4-12 ATS the last 16 times when favored, going back to the latter part of 2014. Make the Jets an 8* play. |
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10-21-17 | USC +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The USC/Notre Dame rivalry is one of CFB's classics. USC comes in 6-1, after escaping with a 28-27 win last Saturday over Utah. The Trojans trailed 21-7 at the half and walked away with the win only when Utah failed on a late two-point conversion try. Notre Dame upped its record to 5-1 after winning at North Carolina 33-10 on Oct. 7th, without starting QB Brandon Winbush. The Fighting Irish led 16-7 at the half and kept the pressure on with a 487-265 yardage advantage in the 23-point win, despite QB Ian Book throwing for only 146 yards with one TD and two INTs. USC: The Trojans rolled up 532 total yards against Utah but still barely eked out a win. Sam Darnold was a Heisman-favorite entering thi season but after throwing 31 TDs and just nine INTs in 2016, he's already thrown nine INTs in 2017, along with 15 TDs. RB Ronald Jones II (640 YR / 6.3 YPC / 8 TDs) is a quality back and leads a running game averaging 180.6 YPG (54th). USC's defense is allowing 385.4 YPG (67th) and 23.7 PPG (52nd). Notre Dame: The Irish really need a healhty Winbush here (Irish had a bye last weekend), as Book is not ready for primetime. That said, Notre Dame's rushing game is first-class, led by Josh Adams, who has run for 776 yards (9.0 YPC) and five TDs. The Irish are averaging 308.0 YPG on the ground, which ranks 5th. The defense could be up to the task of slowing USC's Jones, as it has allowed just one rushing TD and a modest 16.8 PPG on the season (15th). Notre Dame has already exceeded its 2016 win total, when the Irish finished 4-8, after opening the season ranked 10th in the AP's preseason poll. The pick: The rivalry between No. 11 USC and No. 13 Notre Dame stands as one of the most hallowed in college football, with a lineage that transcends individual season records."I think it's the best inter-sectional rivalry in college sports," USC head coach Clay Helton said. With a combined 22 national championships and 14 Heisman Trophy winners between the programs, the USC-Notre Dame rivalry has the hardware to back up Helton's claim. Both teams enter Saturday's matchup at Notre Dame Stadium ranked in the top-25 for the first time since 2009, and the 89th installment of the series will likely see the winner move into the top-10, as well as keep its CFP hopes alive. Notre Dame failed at home in its biggest test so far in 2017 (a 20-19 loos to Georgia) and I wouldn't want to be laying any points at all here, vs. the Trojans. USC was expected to be the class of the Pac-12 at the beginning of the season and could just re-establish themselves as the conference's best again, with a non-conference win at South Bend. Make USC a 10* play. |
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10-21-17 | Oregon +7 v. UCLA | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -115 | 124 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oregon Ducks dropped to 4-3 (1-3 Pac-12) on the season after falling to the Stanford Cardinal 49-7, this past Saturday. The Ducks will visit the Rose Bowl this Saturday to face the UCLA Bruins, who dropped to 3-3 (1-2 Pac-12) on the season after falling to the Arizona Wildcats 47-30, last weekend. Oregon won 10-plus games every season from 2008 through 2014 but after a 9-4 season in 2016, fell to 4-8 last year. UCLA was also 4-8 in 2016, after Jim Mora had led the Bruins to four straight bowl games and a 37-16 overall record in his first four seasons in LA. Oregon: The Ducks' offense has really struggled since losing QB Justin Herbert to a collarbone injury Sep. 30 against Cal. Herbert was completing 68.3 percent of his passes with nine TDs and just two INTs but in the two games he's missed since, Oregon QBs have thrown for just 178 yards with one TD and four INTs, with the Ducks scoring 10 and seven points, respectively, in back-to-back losses. The running game is excellent though, averaging 244.6 YPG (18th), led by Freeman (797 YR with 10 TDs) and Benoit (361 YR with 8 TDs). Oregon's defense has allowed 30.3 PPG (89th) but in term of yards allowed, the Ducks are better than that, ranking 43rd in allowing 362.0 YPG. UCLA: The Bruins began the year un-ranked but after opening 2-0, snuck into the AP poll at No. 25. However, UCLA lost back-to-back games from there at Memphis (allowed 48 poinst) and at Stanford (allowed 58 points). After beating Colorado 27-23 at home, UCLA's defense again got 'spanked,' allowing 47 points in a loss at Arizona. QB Josh Rosen is a "big-time" talent and UCLA ranks second in the nation averaging 399.7 YPG through the air. Rosen is completing 64.2% with 17 TDs and eight INTs, despite a non-existent running game which averaged 127.5 YPG (104th). However, with UCLA's defense, Rosen finds himself typically playing "catch up." The Bruins are allowing 40.5 PPG (125th) on 523.0 YPG (127th). The pick: Led by Freeman (plus Benoit's no slouch), the Oregon running game should 'run wild' against a UCLA rush D allowing 313.0 YPG (129th), as well as 6.6 YPC! This is hardly a matchup that bodes well for UCLA being able to beat Oregon for the first time since 2007. UCLA's next win will be the 600th in program history but do not expect that win to come here, as Oregon wins its seventh in a row over the Bruins. Make the Ducks an 8* play. |
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10-21-17 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -24 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Maryland Terrapins (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) travel to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison to take on the Wisconsin Badgers (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten), who are currently ranked No. 5. Terps shocked Texas in their season-opener, winning 51-41 as an 18-point road dog but come in having lost three of their last four. Wisconsin has taken control of the Big Ten's West Division at 3-0, with no other team checking in any better than 2-2. Maryland: The Terps have fallen off quite dramatically since their opening week win over Texas and have been outscored 99-35 in their last two games. QB Max Bortenschlager is completing just 50.9 percent of his passes (only 106 attempts) for 561 yards with six TDs and two INTs. Maryland ranks just 117th in yards passing, averaging just 161.0 YPG. Maryland's ground game is averaging 178.1 YPG (57th), led by and Ty Johnson (488 YR / 7.2 YPC). Maryland averages 31.7 PPG but that doesn't help much with the defense allowing 36.5 PPG (115th). Wisconsin: The Badgers look to move to 7-0 and keep themselves in the thick of the college football playoff conversation. QB Alex Hornibrook is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 1,210 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs. Wisconsin averages 36.3 PPG (27th) and a big reason is a ground game averaging 264.5 YPG (13th). Freshman Jonathan Taylor is Wisconsin's "next great RB," rushing for 986 yards on 7.8 YPC with 10 TDs. He had with 219 yards last week (his third 200-plus game of 2017) and will surely match the NCAA record for fewest games needed to reach 1,000 yards (seven). Nothing new on the defensive side of the ball for Wisconsin here in 2017, as the Badgers are allowing only 13.3 YPG (5th) on 265.0 YPG (6th). The pick: Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS at home in 2017 but the Badgers have the rush D (78.8 YPG ranks 4th) to contain Maryland's running game, which will put way too much pressure on QB Bortenschlage, who really isn't ready for primetime. The Terps have allowed 99 combined points in back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Northwestern and are very likely to allow 40-plus points here.The Badgers are outscoring opponents 119-24 in the second half and pull away here for the cover. Make Wisconsin an 8* play. |
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10-20-17 | Air Force -5.5 v. Nevada | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -105 | 105 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: It's MWC play on Friday night at MacKay Stadium when the Nevada Wolf Pack host the Air Force Falcons. The Falcons opened with a 67-0 win over VMI but then lost four in a row. In the last two losses of the team's skid, Air Force allowed 56 points at New Mexico and then 48 at home to Navy. However, after falling behind UNLV by 27 points, Air force rallied for a 34-30 win. Nevada opened 2017 with five straight losses, before winning 35-21 at home over at Hawaii but lost last Saturday 44-42 at Colorado State. Air Force: The Falcons rallied last Saturday, despite six fumbles (four lost), as QB Arion Worthman rushed for five TDs. He's completing just 49.2% for YPG but has eight TDs and just one INT. He's also the team's leading rusher (550 YR and 10 TDs), as the Falcons rank 6th in the nation averaging 304.0 YPG on the ground. Air Force is allowing 31.8 PPG (101st). Nevada: The Wolf Pack come off of a near upset of MWC favorite Colorado State in a 44-42 loss (as 25-point underdog) but that leaves the team just 1-6 (1-2 in MWC play). QB Gangi is completing a modest 58.8 percent but has 14 TD passes (eight the last two games) and just six INTs. RB Moore (442 YR / 5.7 YPC) lead a the rushing attack taht averages only 128.6 YPG (101st) and Nevada averages a modest 25.3 PPG (91st). The defense allows 35.6 PPG (112th). The pick: CBSC televises this game but really, who cares? Air Force is off a 10-3 season and is just 2-4 heading into this game. The Falcons have been to nine bowls in the last 10 seasons and need a win here to have any chance of extending that run. Make Air Force a 10* play. |
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10-20-17 | Blazers -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Portland Trail Blazers travel to Indianapolis tonight and will try to play "Can you Top This" in their meeting with the Pacers. The answer is likely no, as the Blazers are coming off a 124-76 win at the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday. It was the second-largest margin of victory in franchise history and also, the largest margin of victory in any opener in NBA history! The Pacers opened their season as well on Wednesday and while their margin of victory was a more modest nine points, Indiana scored 140 points at home against the Brooklyn Nets, placing eight scorers in double figures! Portland: The Blazers cruised to their win over the Suns despite playing without their second-best scorer (player?). Portland will welcome C.J. McCollum back from suspension when they visit the Indiana Pacers on Friday. Damian Lillard knocked down 4-of-6 from beyond the arc en route to a team-high 27 points, while reserve guard Pat Connaughton stepped up with a career-high 24 points (made it 4-of-7 three-point attempts). Portland made 14-of-24 from three-point range but was already looking ahead after the game. Probably don't read too much into (the win) because it's a long season," Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "Obviously we're pleased with it, but Indiana is a new day. You can't rest on it. It's a great way to start the season, particularly the manner in which we did it, but the next game is the next game." T Indiana: The Pacers installed a faster-paced offense which will move ball more after trading away ball-stopping star Paul George. The results were positive on opening night, as three players scored 20 or more points and the team totaled 29 assists while shooting 52 percent from the floor. PG Darren Collison, one of three new starters, handed out 11 of those assists and scored 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting. Former Indiana Hoosier star Victor Oladipo led the way with 22 points and returning center Myles Turner added a double-double (21 & 11). "It was a great first night and hopefully Pacers fans get a chance to see what we're capable of and what type of basketball team we are," Oladipo told reporters. "Obviously, it wasn't perfect and there are some things we want to get better and improve at; but it's always great to get a win in the NBA." The pick: Both Portland and Indiana 'beat up' on teams which will both be looking to gain the most ping pong balls possible in the upcoming draft (Suns and Nets, respectively), so neither has gotten too carried away with their big opening night performances. Bottom line here is that McCollum will be back in the starting lineup for this game and last season, he and Lillard combined for 57 PPG and shot 49% against Indiana. Meanwhile, the two Indiana players who led the way for the Pacers against Portland last year, Paul George and Jeff Teague, have both left for 'greener pastures' (OKC and Minny, respectively). Make Portland an 8* play. |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -118 | 80 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-1 (2-1 in the AAC) Memphis Tigers handed Navy its first loss of the season last Saturday. edging the Midshipmen 30-27. The victory allowed the Tigers to move into the latest AP poll at No. 25, for the first time since 2015. Memphis' lone loss in 2017 has come 40-13 at UCF but I should note that UCF is one of just eight unbeaten FBS teams and is currently ranked 20th in the AP poll. It's an AAC game Thursday night game when the Tigers visit TDECU Stadium and Houston on ESPN. The Cougars will be looking to atone for 45-17 upset loss at struggling Tulsa (2-5). Houston welcomes Memphis with 4-2 overall record (2-1 in the AAC). Memphis: QB Riley Ferguson is completing just 59.3 percent of his passes but has thrown for for 1,814 yards, 19 TDs and just five INTs. The Memphis ground game is averaging 180.2 YPG (55th), led by Henderson (542 yards / 8.1 YPC) and Taylor (307 YR / 5.4 YPC). WR Anthony Miller has 45 catches and nine TDs, although nine different players have at least one TD catch. Memphis is averaging 40.3 PPG (12th) but allowing 33.8 PPG (109th) on 477.5 YPG (116th). Houston: This is Major Applewhite's first season at Houston, taking over for Tom Herman (now at Texas). Applewhite opened the season with Kyle Allen as his starting QB but after a 27-24 at home to Texas Tech, he gave the starting job to Kyle Postma. The Cougars won the first two games Postma started but then came last Saturday's 'ugly' 45-17 loss at Tulsa. Allen has attempted 104 passes (76.9%) for 751 yards with four TDs and four INTs, while Postma has 122 pass attempts (65.6%) for 805 yards with four TDs and five INTs. Houston's ground game is averaging 161.8 YPG (69th), led by Catalon (431 YR / 4.8 YPC) and Birden (227 YR / 5.8 YPC). Houston is averaging just 25.5 PPG (86th), down from 40.4 and 35.8 PPG the last two seasons. However, the defense has been solid, allowing 21.0 PPG (39th), which is in keeping with the team averaging between 20.8 and 23.5 PPG the previous four seasons. The pick: Memphis has won 11 straight regular-season non-Saturday games, including six on the road but the Cougars have won 11 straight conference home games, as well as six of the past seven against Memphis. The Tigers are coming off a huge win over Navy plus beat Houston last season 48-44, snapping a six-game losing streak in the series that dated to 2006. Cougars get their revenge. Make Houston a 10* play. |
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Riddle me this. If I told you that the Warriors would shoot 53.8 percent from the floor (including 16 of 30 on threes), while making 19 of 21 FTs, would anyone have though that they'd lose their season-opener at home to the Rockets? Wait, before you answer, let me add that Chris Paul would go 2 of 9 in his Houston debut (scoring four points) and that Harden would make just 10 of 23 from the floor. Now, would anyone have taken Houston on the moneyline? OK, you all are likely well aware that the Warriors blew a 17-point lead last night and by out-scoring Golden State 34-20 in the 4th quarter, Houston upset the defending champs 122-121, when KD's apparent game-winner was disallowed, as the ball left his hand just AFTER the buzzer went off. The Rockets hope not to be still celebrating when they head to Sacramento tonight, to take on the Kings. The Kings were 32-50 last season, while missing the playoffs for the 11th straight season. Houston. The Rockets featured a well-balanced attack last night, as six players scored in double digits, including two reserves with 20 or more points. Backup guard Eric Gordon had 24 points and backup forward P.J. Tucker, signed for his defensive toughness, added 20. "We got some dogs on this team, man," Houston star guard James Harden said during a post-game television interview. "We're versatile, probably the most versatile team since I've been in Houston. We've got a chance." Chris Paul did record 11 assists in his Houston debut but sat out the final 4:47 as he is battling knee soreness. Sacramento: The Kings moved talented but problematic center DeMarcus Cousins at last yea's All Star break and I'm not sure many believe this year's team is ready to break the franchise's current playoff drought. Zach Randolph was brought in and he played under current Kings coach Dave Joerger for three seasons in Memphis. 40-year-old swingman Vince Carter, who also played in Memphis, is expected, along with Randolph, to provide some much-needed leadership to a club that too often lacked it during the Cousins' era. Veteran PG George Hill also was added but he may not be at full strength for the opener after recently suffering a groin injury. As for Randolph, he's questionable after oral surgery. First-round pick PG De'Aaron Fox will get increased time if Hill is hindered, while shooting guard Buddy Hield aims to follow up his solid showing of averaging 15.1 PPG in 25 his games after being the main acquisition in the deal that sent Cousins to New Orleans. The pick: There is a "wide divide' between these two teams but with Houston coming off what had to be a very satisfying win over the Warriors last night in Oakland, the home dog is the way to go. Make Sacramento an 8* play. |
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10-18-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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10-17-17 | Celtics +3 v. Cavs | Top | 99-102 | Push | 0 | 61 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA schedule-makers surely have a sense of humor. Kyrie Irving played six seasons with Cleveland with the four-time All-Star guard helping Cleveland reach three NBA Finals, including winning the 2016 title. However, he reportedly tired of playing with LBJ and "requested" (basically forced) a trade this past off-season. Irving ended up in Boston for a package that included PG Isaiah Thomas and the highly under-appreciated Jae Crowder. Boston actually earned the No. 1 seed in the East last season over Cleveland (53 wins to 51) but the Celtics were no match for the Cavs in the conference finals, losing 4-1. Cleveland revamped its roster over the summer as well, adding veteran guards Dwyane Wade (James' BFF), Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon in addition to newcomers Thomas (out due to hip surgery) and Crowder. LBJ has been bothered by a sprained left ankle and his availability may not be determined until close to tip-off in the season opener, as Kyrie makes his much-anticipated "return to Cleveland" as a member of the Celtics. Boston: Irving wasn't the only big off-season acquisition by the Celtics, as they lured All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward away from the Utah Jazz to reunite with Brad Stevens, his former college coach at Butler. All it took was a four-year, $128 million deal. The move to Boston allows Hayward to build off a career-best 2016-17 campaign in which he averaged 21.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Al Horford, second-year swingman Jaylen Brown and rookie forward Jayson Tatum are the other likely starters with Hayward and Irving. Cleveland: LBJ missed four of Cleveland's five preseason games but he did participate in Monday's practice. "You know I never hide stuff from you guys, I really don't know," Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "I mean, just depends on how he feels after (Monday), but I really don't know." Thomas is not expected to make his Cleveland debut until around the All-Star break, so veterans like Rose, Wade and J.R. Smith will be counted on to help James and Kevin Love (who now is expected to start at center, with Thompson coming off the bench) on the scoring side. The pick: There is plenty of drama brewing for tonight, as the Cavs are planning a video tribute to Irving, who made the game-winning 3-pointer in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals to hand the organization its first championship. That said, expect plenty of boos directed Irving's way. As for LBJ, he has never missed a season opener in his first 14 years in the league and of course wants to pay here but he has to realize this is just one game and all the Cavs care about is getting back to the Finals, to get another shot at the Warriors. Especially, considering most believe that this will be LBJ's last season in Cleveland. Something tells me that the Celtics will be better-prepared to win this game and note that if LBJ doesn't play, the numbers don't bode well for the Cavs. Cleveland is 4-23 over the past three seasons when James doesn't play, including losses in the last 11. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Preseason expectations were running high in Tennessee, after the Titans went 9-7 in 2016, losing the AFC South to the Texans on a tie-breaker. The Titans 'laid an egg' in Week 1 in a 26-16 home loss to the Raiders but rebounded with wins at Jacksonville and home to Seattle, to get back on track. However, the Titans were pulverized 57-14 in Week 4 at Houston and followed with a 16-10 loss in Miami last week, while seeing starting QB Marcus Mariota go down with a hamstring injury. The Colts know all to well about an injury to their starting QB, as Andrew Luck has yet to see action in 2017 and does not have an exact timetable to return from his shoulder woes. However, Indy has seen its offense take significant strides as Jacoby Brissett has gotten acclimated under center in place, with the Colts splitting his four games as the team's starting QB (Colts are 2-3, overall). Indianapolis: Brissett threw for a career-high 314 yards and rushed for a TD last week as the Colts collected their second victory against a win-less team with a 26-23 overtime triumph over San Francisco (also beat the now 0-6 Browns at home in Week 2). T.Y. Hilton had seven catches for 177 yards last week. Rookie RB Marlon Mack has given the Colts' running game a boost, with a 22-yard TD plus his 35-yard run set up Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 51-yard FGl in overtime. Veteran Frank Gore moved into seventh place in NFL history with 13,304 yards rushing. Still, the Colts average only 100.0 YPG on the ground (20th) and their 19.4 PPG ranks only 22nd. The defense is a big problem, as the Colts rank last by allowing 31.8 PPG and 30th (of 32 teams) in total D (393.4 YPG), as well as passing yards (294.0 YPG). Tennessee: The Titans may be staring at another game without Marcus Mariota (hamstring) in its lineup. Mariota is hopeful that he can play. Matt Cassel came in after he got hurt last Sunday at Miami and was 21 of 32 for 141 yards (no completion longer than 17 yards) and was sacked six times! Tennessee's bread and butter has been its rushing attack but DeMarco Murray has just 89 yards on the ground in his last two contests, as Miami limited the team to only 69 yards on 20 carries last week. The Titans still rank 7th in rushing on the season, at 124.8 YPG. The defense (not helped by allowing Houtson 57 points in Week 4), is one spot behind the Colts in points allowed, at 28.4 per game (31st). The pick: It's fairly likely that ESPN would not have picked this as a Monday night game if it knew that Matt Cassel and Jacoby Brissett could be the opposing QBs. However, it seems as if Mariota will be able to play and there should be plenty of motivation on the Tennessee side, to get its season headed back in the right direction plus to end what has to be a wildly frustrating 11-game losing streak against the Colts (mostly at the hands of Andrew Luck). Brissett has surely been an excellent pickup (savior?) for Indy but let's not forget his only two wins have come over the Browns and 49ers, who check in a combined 0-12 in 2017. Make Tennessee a 10* play. |
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10-16-17 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Yankees fell into an 0-2 hole against Cleveland but were able to win the final three games of that ALDS. The Yanks now find themselves in a second straight 0-2 hole here in the ALCS (a seven-game series), this time against the Astros. Houston owns MLB's best offense and the Yanks hit more HRs (241) than any team in MLB, yet each of the first two games resulted in 2-1 Houston wins. "Both sides are really, really emphasizing staying in the game and just continuing to fight because it can shift in a heartbeat," Houston manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "Just when you feel good about where you're at, it can shift back to momentum the other way. So it's postseason baseball at its best." After rallying against the 102-win Cleveland Indians, the question is can New York do it again up against the 101-win Houston Astros? "I'm going to stick with the same lineup because things can turn really quickly," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "There's a lot of guys that struggle in the postseason. That's just what it is. If you just start moving people around trying to play a hot hand, it doesn't necessarily work." The pitching matchup: Charlie Morton (14-7 & 3.62 ERA) gets the call for Houston and CC Sabathia (14-5 & 3.69 ERA) for the Yanks. Morton, in his 10th big-league season, authored a "career year" (see above), as the Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408). He started the clinching game of the ALDS at Boston last Monday but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. He surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4 (0-0 & 4.15 ERA this postseason. CC Sabathia was15-6 for the Yanks in 2012 but entered 2017 off a four-year run in which he had gone just 32-39. No one saw his 2017 season coming, as he finished the regular season 14-5 (3.69 ERA). The Yankees were 19-8 in his starts, giving him a plus-$1163 moneyline mark which ranked fourth-best among all starters. This marks his third postseason start and he pitched well against the Indians. Although he went only 9 2/3 innings in his two starts, he struck out 14 batters and his Game 5 effort was a big reason the Yankees advanced (0-0 & 3.72 ERA this postseason). He now takes the mound in this "must-win" situation and he is 9-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 21 career postseason appearances (including 20 starts). The pick: After a pair on one-run games, should we expect anything different here in Game 3? The Astros are hitting .190 through two games, after batting .333 in the ALDS against Boston. As for New York, the Yankees enter Game 3 batting .159 with 27 strikeouts, four walks and just 16 total bases. Taking the 1 1/2 runs here could be a HUGE. Make the Astros an 8* play. |
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10-15-17 | Bucs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-38 | Loss | -113 | 124 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona is the site of this Week 6 game between the 2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 2-3 Arizona Cardinals. The Bucs played a Week 5 home game vs. the Pats on Thursday night but lost 19-14, partly because PK Nick Folk missed three FGs. The Cardinals are hoping to climb back to .500, after a 34-7 loss last Sunday at Philadelphia. Tampa Bay: First things first. Folk's first season with Tampa Bay is over as he was placed on injured reserve with a "minor injury" classification, meaning the team must release him once he becomes healthy. Replacing Folk will be Patrick Murray, who appeared in two games for Cleveland last season after converting 20-of-24 field-goal attempts for the Buccaneers in 2014 (Heeee's back!). The Bucs need more consistency from QB Winston. He's got four TDs and zero INTs with a 103.6 QB rating in Tampa Bay's two wins but has three TDs and three INTs with an 83.6 QB rating in the team's two losses. The Bucs average just 86.0 YPG on the ground (27th) but it's good news that RB Doug Martin returned from his suspension vs. the Pats and gained 74 yards on 13 carries Arizona: The Cards allowed 419 yards of total offense at Philadelphia and checks in allowing 25.0 PPG (27th) on the season. QB Carson Palmer and the Arizona offense ranks second in passing yards (289.0 YPG) but the team is averaging only 16.2 PPG (29th). One of the issues is the NFL's werst rushing attack, as Arizona has averaged 51.8 YPG to rank dead-last, as does the team's 2.6 YPC average! Arizona obtained 2012 NFL MVP Adrian Peterson from New Orleans on Tuesday with hopes that the 32-year-old will resemble his former self after enduring a miserable four-game tenure with the Saints (ran for 81 yards on 27 carries, averaging 3.0 YPC). The pick: Arizona is 2-3 with its two wins coming in OT victories at Indy and at home vs. San Francisco. Those two teams are a combined 2-8 SU and Arizona failed to cover either win. That means the Cards enter this game 0-5 ATS on the season. Adding insult to injury, the Cardinals had 13 players listed on their injury report earlier in the week and nine of them were starters, including All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson with a sore quadriceps. This marks only Tampa Bay's second road game of 2017 but it should be noted that the Bucs were 6-2 ATS on the road in 2016. The Cards have a 'washed-up' QB in Palmer and have now added a 'washed-up' RB in Adrian Peterson. That's hardly a good 'daily double!' Make the Bucs are 8* play. |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 121 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lions opened the 2017 season 2-0 but have lost two of their last three and head to New Orleans at 3-2 to take on the rejuvenated Saints. New Orleans opened its season with double-digit losses at Minnesota and home to New England but then shocked the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina in Week 3, before beating the Dolphins 20-0 in a Week 4 London game. The first bye week was in Week 5 and the Saints were one of four teams getting an early rest. The Saints return to the playing field on Sunday and welcome a Lions team to the Superdome but the Lions have beaten the Saints in each of the last three seasons, 24-23 in Detroit in 2014, then 35-27 and 28-13 the last two years here in New Orleans. Detroit: The Lions' plus-9 turnover margin had been a key to the team's 3-1 start but they couldn't force a TO against the Panthers last Sunday, as Cam Newton ripped Detroit's pass D for 355 yards and three TDs. QB Matthew Stafford is completing 64.6% with nine TDs and just one INT but the Lions rank just 23rd in passing (200.6 YPG). RB Ameer Abdullah had a career-high 94 yards in the Week 4 win at Minnesota but has done little in the team's other four games, averaging less than 50 yards per. As a team, Detroit is averaging just 87.6 YPG on the ground to rank 26th. Detroit has allowed a modest 19.4 PPG (11th) but a concern, after Newton ripped open the team's secondary, is that the Lions are starting to look like the pass D which allowed a historic (not in a good way) 72.7% completion rate in 2016, with 33 TD passes allowed, just 10 INTs and an opposing QB rating of 106.5 (NFL-worst in 2016). New Orleans. Drew Brees has watched the game film of Newton picking apart that Detroit pass D and he must be salivating. Brees hasn't thrown an interception in 152 attempts so far in 2017, while tossing eight TDs passes and earning a QB rating of 108.3. The "unhappy" Adrian Peterson was traded to Arizona this week, which should make things more pleasant on the sidelines, give Mark Ingram a jolt of confidence plus get more "PT" for impressive rookie QB Alvin Kamara. Let's also note the incredible turnaround of New Orleans' pass D. New Orleans allowed a league-worst 777 passing yards (along with six TD passes) in opening 0-2 but in holding the Panthers and Dolphins to a combined 13 points in Week 3 & 4 wins, the Saints shut down Newton (167 yards with no TD passes and three INTs for a QB rating of 43.8) and Cutler (164 yards and one INT for a QB rating of 71.1). The pick. It's just not Brees who has been mistake-free, as the Saints are the only team to have no yet committed a turnover in 2017. In the process, they have become just the third NFL team since 1935 to open the season without a TO through its first four games (pretty heady stuff). Sure, the Saints are only 11-14 at the Superdome since 2014 but with a younger, more talented defense, there are signs the team is beginning to rise above mediocrity on that side of the ball. As for the Brees-led offense, there is nothing mediocre about them! Make New Orleans a 10* play. |
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10-14-17 | Ohio State -24 v. Nebraska | Top | 56-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ohio State Buckeyes are 5-1 (3-0 Big Ten) and ranked No. 9 in the latest AP poll as they head to Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the 3-3 (2-1 Big Ten) Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Ohio State's season (meaning CFP hopes) took a huge hit with its 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma back on Sep. 9 but the Buckeyes have won four straight since, while averaging 52.5 PPG. Nebraska was within seven points of No. 7 Wisconsin entering the fourth quarter last week but dropped a 38-17 decision after winning its first two Big Ten contests. However, a non-conference loss at Oregon and a 21-17 non-conference home loss to Northern Illinois (as a 10 1/2-point favorite), leaves Nebarska at 3-3 and in danger of falling under .500 with a loss here. Ohio State: J.T. Barrett under-performed against Oklahoma but has 13 TD passes without an INT (in 104 attempts), In Ohio State's current run. Dobbins (669 yards on 7.6 YPC and 4 TDs) has taken up the slack for Mike Weber, last year's 1,000-yard RB, who has not been healthy for much of 2017 (has 103 yards rushing the last two games, with four TDs). The offense has great balance, 320.3 YPG through the air (4th) and 247.7 YPG on the ground (18th), to average 45.8 PPG (4th). Urban Meyer teams always play D and this year's team is no exception, allowing 15.7 PPG (10th) on 290.7 YPG (14th). Nebraska: Much was expected from Tulane transfer Tanner Lee but the QB has been a huge disappointment. He's completing only 54.0 percent and has almost as many INTs (10), as TD passes (11). Nebraska's ground game is averaging only 148.5 YPG (82nd) with Devine Ozigbo leading the way with a modest 327 yards. Defensively, Nebraska is allowing 26.7 PPG (73rd) and will get its sternest test, here. The pick: Anyone doubting Barrett should be quiet now and as noted, his counterpart Lee, has been a fairly huge bust! With Nebraska relatively new to the Big Ten, the schools have met just five times, with Ohio State winning four of those meetings. Sure, Ohio State is a huge favorite on the road but since coming to Columbus, Meyer's teams are a remarkable 36-2 SU on the road, including 21-1 in conference road games. I'll 'live dangerously' and lay the points against an over-matched Nebraska team. Make Ohio State an 8* play. |
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10-14-17 | Michigan -6.5 v. Indiana | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 110 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-1 Michigan Wolverines lost at home to Michigan State last Saturday, falling from 7th in the AP poll to 17th. Jim Harbaugh is now just 1-4 SU vs. key Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Michigan State, something the Michigan faithful are clearly not happy about. The Wolverines look to bounce back this Saturday with a 12 noon ET kickoff in Bloomington, with the 3-2 Indiana Hoosiers (0-2 in Big Ten play) welcoming Michigan to town for the school's Homecoming game. No one will be surprised to learn that Michigan leads the series 56-9 or even that the Hoosiers have lost 35 of their last 36 meetings with the Wolverines, including 21 straight. Michigan: Wilton Speight won the QB battle against John O'Koren but was hardly establishing himself as the clear choice as Michigan's No. 1 QB. However, a season-ending injury to Speight at Purdue on Sep. 23 (back fractures), ended any debate. O'Korn played well enough at Purdue, completing 18 of 26 for 270 yards with one TD and one INT, as Michigan won 28-14. It's true that Michigan's offense wasn't exactly lighting things up with Speight on the field but the Wolverines couldn't get anything going at all last week with O'Korn leading the way, scoring just 10 points, going 5-17 on third down and turning the ball over five times. O'Korn was 16 of 35 for 198 yards without a TD and threw three INTs. It didn't help Speight and it won't help O'Korn that Michigan's running game is only mediocre, averaging 167.8 YPG (62nd). Last year's team averaged 213 per! Defensively, despite losing 10 of 11 starters from last year's unit, Michigan ranks first in total D (213.0 YPG) and just 13.6 PPG, which ranks 7th. Indiana: The Hoosiers opened their season in an August 31 game at home against Ohio State (lost 49-21) but have won three of four since. However, that loss came 45-14 at Penn State on Sep. 30. Indiana's 34-17 at Virginia looks good (Cavs are 4-1) but the team's other two wins mean little, besting Georgia Southern and Charleston Southern in Bloomington. Richard Lagow began the year as Indiana's starting QB and threw for 410 against Ohio State but redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey replaced him the following game after Lagow struggled. Ramsey led Indiana to that 34-17 win while completing 16 of 20 for 173 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. After Indiana was embarrassed at Penn State, Ramsey was given his first career start last Saturday. Sure, it was only against Charleston Southern, but he threw for 321 yards and two TDs. He also added 54 rushing yards and a third TD. Another freshman, WR Taysir Mack hauled in a career-high seven receptions for 111 yards and a pair of TDs to become the first Indiana freshman to surpass 100 receiving yards in a game since Tandon Doss achieved the feat in 2008. Indiana's defense allowed 27.2 PPG in 2016, after six consecutive seasons of allowing 30-plus PPG. It's improved on that again so far in 2017, allowing 25.6 PPG (59th). The pick: The Hoosiers' last win over Michigan was 30 years ago in Bloomington and Indiana won't end its 21-game long streak to Michigan here. However, should one "take the points?" Maybe, if Michigan had not lost last Saturday to Michigan State. This is just wrong time, wrong place for Indiana and losses of 49-21 and 45-14 against Penn State loom here as a reminder as to why to NOT take the points. Make Michigan an 8* play. |
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10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +14 | Top | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 96 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 (3-0 in the Pac 12) for the first time since 2001. The Cougars moved into the AP's top-10 (at No. 8) after winning 33-10 at Oregon last Saturday. The Cal Golden Bears welcome the Cougars to Memorial Stadium on Friday night, off a 38-7 loss at current No. 7 Washington last Saturday in Seattle. Cal sits 3-3 overall but 0-3 in Pac 12 play. Washington State. Mike Leach suffered through two 3-9 seasons in his first three years at Cal but came into 2017 off back-to-back 9-4 and 8-5 records the last two seasons. He's got an outstanding QB in Luke Falk, who likely isn't getting getting enough Heisman hype. Falk is completing 71.8 percent with 19 TDs and just two INTs, while climbing up the leader boards for career marks in both the Pac 12 and among all FBS schools. All this, despite getting much help from a running game that averages 96.8 YPG (123rd). Still, WSU is averaging 39.7 PPG (20th) on 474.7 YPG (23rd). A huge improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball. Leach's last two teams held opponents to 27.7 and 26.4 PPG, respectively, after his first three teams in Pullman allowed 33.7, 32.5 and 38.6 PPG. Here in 2017, Wazzu is holding opponents to just 18.5 PPG (23rd) on 276.2 YPG (11th). Now that's an improvement! California: Cal opened 3-0 in non-conference play but has lost Pac 12 games 30-20 to USC, 45-24 at Oregon and 38-7 at Washington, a game in which the Bears were held to 93 yards of total offense. After averaging 37.1 PPG last season, Cal is averaging just 24.3 PPG (96th) in 2017. However, while Cal allowed 42.6 PPG in 2016, the Bears have held opponents to 29.8 PPG in 2017 (ranks 89th but that's almost two TDs per game less!). The pick: Cal's been outscored by an average of 20.7 PPG in its 0-3 Pac 12 start and as first-year head coach Justin Wilcox put it, “We just, across the board, have got to be better. It’s hard right now. We’re sitting at 3-3, we’ve lost three in a row, we haven’t played well enough. We’ve got to be better.” While the Bears’ offense is in disarray, the defense continues to show steady improvement. I'll note that Leach's team is 16-7 ATS a visitor since 2013 but only 2-3 ATS as a road favorite in that span. Here, the Cougars are favored by about two TDs. That's too much. Make Cal a 10* play. |
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10-12-17 | Eagles +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Eagles opened the 2016 season 3-0 in September, behind rookie QB Carson Wentz. However, Wentz and his team cooled off fairly quickly, losing nine of their next 11 games, before ending the season with back-to-back wins in Weeks 16 and 17 to finish 7-9. The Eagles are at it again in 2017, opening 4-1 and the question is, is this real or is it Memorex? We may get our answer Thursday night, when the Eagles travel to Bank of America Stadium to take on the 4-1 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers were 15-1 in 2015 and made it all the way to the Super Bowl but fell from first to last in the NFC South in 2016, going 6-10. However, this year's team and particularly QB Cam Newton, are beginning to look much more like the 2015 team than last year's sad-sack unit. Again, we may just learn something about the Panthers here on Thursday night, as well. Philadelphia: Wentz continues to make converts of the non-believers, as he's leading an offense averaging 27.4 PPG (7th). He's completing 62.1% with 10 TDs and just three INTs (97.7 QB rating), while the Eagles rank 8th in passing (259.0 YPG). RB LeGarrette Blount is starting to make an impact (323 yards rushing) and the Eagles' 138.8 YPG on the ground ranks 5th. The defense is allowing 19.8 PPG (13th) and excels in stopping opponents' ground game, allowing just 62.8 YPG (2nd-best). The problem against Carolina and Newton may be, that Philly's pass D allows 283.2 YPG, which ranks 29th of 32 teams. Carolina: The Panthers opened 2-0 but were hardly impressive in doing so, beating the sad-sack 49ers 23-3 and the Bills 9-3. When Carolina lost 34-13 at home to the then 0-2 Saints 34-13 in Week 3, with Newton passing for just 167 yards and throwing three INTs (QB rating of 43.8), critics were everywhere. However, what a difference a couple of weeks can make. Newton led the Panthers to a 33-30 win at New England in Week 5 and then at Detroit last Sunday, 27-24. He's earned QB ratings of 130.8 and 141.8, while throwing for 671 yards and six TDs (just one INT in 61 attempts). He has a trio of quality receivers in Kelvin Benjamin, Ed Dickson and Devin Funchess (not to mention rookie RB Christian McCaffrey's 27 catches) but Carolina's ground game needs to improve (its 98.6 YPG ranks only 19th). Defensively, Carolina is allowing only 274.0 YPG (3rd) and just 18.8 PPG (9th), down from 25.1 PPG in 2016. The pick: All but four of last week's 14 games were decided by six points or fewer but Philadelphia was one of the exceptions, routing the Cardinals 34-7. Philly fans are clearly riding high but while the Eagles' bandwagon is becoming crowded let's insert here that Philly's current three-game win streak has come over the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals, who are a combined 2-13 SU. Then again, here's the other side of that. The Eagles only loss of the 2017 season is 27-20 at the Chiefs, who are 5-0 SU and ATS. Love what Newton's done the last two weeks but the Panthers are 0-2 ATS at home in 2017 (averaging just 11.0 PPG), after going 3-5 ATS at home in 2016. I'm taking the points and making the Eagles an 8* play. |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +17 v. Troy | Top | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 46 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Troy Trojans are coming off 10-3 season (including a 28-23 bowl win over Ohio) with 14 returning starters, including eight on offense. Troy lost its season opener 24-13 at Boise State but has since won four in a row, including the team's "historic 24-21 win at LSU on Sep. 30 as about a three-TD underdog (that win ended LSU's 49-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents). Troy did not play last Saturday and now hosts South Alabama in this Wednesday game. The Jags also went 'bowling' last year, although the team was just 6-6, before getting routed in the Arizona Bowl 45-21 by Air Force to finish 6-7. Preseason predictions had the Jags possibly getting back to another bowl game but the Jags are just 1-4, with the team's lone win coming 45-0 over Alabama A&M. South Alabama: Like Troy, South Alabama was off the first Saturday in October and last played at La. Tech on Sep. 30, losing 34-16. USA only trailed 17-16 after three quarters but the Bulldogs took control with a 17-0 fourth quarter run to finish the game. South Alabama was out-gained 479-333 and gave the ball away twice while committing seven penalties. The offense has not done much, averaging 22.6 PPG (200th) on 329.0 YPG (113th). The good news is that the Jags' starting QB, Cole Garvin, returned from an injury vs. La Tech,. He was just 21 of 45 for 235 yards with one TD and two INTs but he now has a game under his belt plus has had the first 10 days of October to practice. RB Xavier Johnson gives his some 'cover,' as he's run for 345 yards on 6.1 YPC (4 TDs). The defense is hardly much of a 'stop unit' though, allowing 30.8 PPG (91st) on 421.2 YPG (86th). Troy: The Trojans need to 'come down' from that LSU shocker and the good news is, the team has had a 10-day break since that Sep. 30 win. The Trojans are looking to win for a fifth straight time and enter having gone 7-1 SU at home since the start of the 2016 season. QB Brandon Silvers had 22 TD passes last season in leading Troy to an average of 33.7 PPG but after five games of the 2017 season, he has just two TD passes and while the Trojans are averaging 431.2 YPG (49th), they are scoring just 24.0 PPG (99th). Defense has been the key, as Troy is allowing only 18.6 PPG (24th) on 344.6 YPG (32nd) The pick: Sure, Troy has had some extra time off to "take in" its thrilling upset of LSU in "Death Valley" but while I noted earlier that Troy comes in on a 7-1 SU run at home since the beginning of the 2016 season, I'll add here that the Trojans are just 2-6 ATS in those games. In fact, while Troy checks in at 14-4 SU since the start of 2016, it is also a money-burning 4-10 ATS when favored in that span, including 0-3 so far in 2017. Make that 0-4 in 2017 as a favorite! Take the points and make South Alabama a 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The D'backs destroyed the Dodgers in six straight meetings near the end of the season, when LA was in a deep funk. However, LA's bats have toyed with Arizona's pitching in taking a commanding 2-0 lead in this NLDS. LA won Game 1, 9-5 and Game 2, 8-5. That's 17 runs scored on 24 hits. The Dodgers have looked every bit the part of the team that led the majors with 104 regular-season victories. The D'backs have 'limped' home but they can take heart in the fact that they are 53-29 at Chase Field in 2017 (including an 11-8 wild card win over Colorado), outscoring opponents 5.71-to-4.32 RPG. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (10-12 & 3.86 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers and will be opposed by Zack Greinke (17-7 & 2.89 ERA). Darvish did finish the season 2-0 in his last three outings, allowing just one earned run in 19 1/3 innings during the stretch (0.47 ERA). However, he's not had a good season and that's an understatement. Combine his starts with Texas and LA and his moneyline mark of minus-$1302 is the third-worst among all starters in 2017. Throw in the fact that he has a 5.40 ERA while losing both his career postseason starts and one wonders just why LA manager Dave Roberts said in a press conference, "To have that front-line guy to win a playoff game certainly that's why you acquire a guy like Yu." It's true that Greinke has been ineffective over his last three starts, giving up 14 runs in 11 2/3 innings (including lasting just 3 2/3 innings in the wild-card contest against the Colorado Rockies). That said, how does one ignore that the D'backs went 22-10 in all of Greinke's starts this regular season, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$971 (8th-best among all starters). The pick: Greinke is 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA in 10 career postseason outings with two of the wins coming during his six postseason starts for the Dodgers. "We've built around him. He set the pace for the entire pitching staff all year long," Arizona manager Lovullo told reporters. "I know he loves challenges like this. Nobody prepares better. Nobody is going to work to make sure that on that day when he takes the mound that he's going to be comfortable, confident and ready." Sure, Greinke was terrible last Wednesday but he's on full rest and the D'backs are 16-3 in his Chase Field starts this season. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Arizona an 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings -3 v. Bears | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a MNF game featuring two teams from what was once the NFL's "Black and Blue Division," now the NFC North. The 2-2 Minnesota Vikings will visit Chicago's Soldier Field on ESPN to take on the 1-3 Bears. The Vikings are hoping that Sam Bradford is ready to return as the team's starting QB for this one (after sustaining a knee injury in Minnesota's season opener), while the Bears will hand the starting QB job over to Mitchell Trubisky, the second overall pick of the 2017 draft out of North Carolina. He'll make his NFL debut after off-season acquisition Mike Glennon committed four turnovers in Chicago's 35-14 loss to Green Bay on Sep. 28. Minnesota: The Vikings' two wins this season have come at home (29-19 over the Saints and 34-17 over the Bucs), while Minnesota has lost 26-9 at Pittsburgh and last week at home to the Lions, 14-7. Keenum has completed 61.0% for 755 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (94.4 QB rating) but he's not Bradford. The former Heisman-winner and No. 1 overall draft pick set an NFL single-season record by completing 71.6% of his passes in 2016 and against New Orlean in Week 1, connected on 27 of 32 (that's 84.0%) for 346 yards with three TDs and did not throw a pick (143.0 QB rating). The Vikings not only fell to Detroit last week but also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State) to a torn left ACL that will cost him the remainder of the season. Cook had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus contests and will be replaced by Latavius Murray (signed a three-year, $15 million deal in the off-season). He will inherit the bulk of the workload but note he's coming off ankle surgery during the off-season that still has him feeling less than 100 percent (has just 38 yards rushing this season). Defensively, the Vikings rank T-8th in points allowed (19.0 per) and 12th in total yards (318.0 YPG). Chicago: It didn't take long for Chicago to sour on Glennon (anyone know what the team liked about him in the first place?) and Trubisky will have an opportunity to showcase his abilities in front of millions of viewers, as he makes his debut on MNF. "Ifeel like I'm ready," Trubisky said to reporters this week. "I'm excited. I'm just going to take it day by day and prepare as hard as I possibly can for every single look and situation we can get on Monday. I'm going to be dependent on my teammates a lot. My job is to get the ball to the playmakers and just be a distributor and manage the offense and do the best I can." He doesn't figure to get too much help from Chiacgo's average at-best running game plus while the Chicago defense has allowed 306.2 YPG (9th), the Bears have allowed 26.0 PPG, which ranks 27th. The pick: The return of Bradford would be HUGE news for Minnesota (he's listed as questionable) but the Vikings will also be buoyed by the fact that WR Michael Floyd has also been reinstated after a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. Floyd joins a talented group of WRs that includes Stefon Diggs (22 catches / 17.8 YPC and Adam Thielen (24 catches / 14.9 YPC). Whether it's Bradford (hopefully) or Kennum, I'll take the Vikings against Trubuiskty, who had just one season of note at North Carolina. Trubisky had his moments in the preseason but playing against disinterested starters and backups is quite different than playing a division rival on MNF in one's first-ever NFL start. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Nationals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats have been playoff buts in recent years and were on the verge of falling into an 0-2 hole against the Cubs in Game 2 at Nationals Park. Chicago had a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th, with Washington having score just one run on four hits through the first 16 innings of the series. However, Bryce Harper's two-run HR tied the game and Ryan Zimmerman's three-run blast powered a five-run explosion, as the Cubs won 6-3. The series now resumes late this afternoon at Wrigley Field tied at one apiece. "We've got to win two more games," Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo told reporters. "Doesn't matter how we do it. Doesn't matter the scenario. It starts Monday. With this group, with this experience, nothing's really going to faze us. We've given up way bigger home runs than that before." The pitching matchup: Max Scherzer (16-6 & 2.51 ERA) will get the ball for Washington and Jose Quintana (11-11 & 4.15 ERA) for Chicago. The Nationals are unsure just what to expect from reigning National League Cy Young Award winner. Scherzer hasn't pitched since Sep. 30 when he left his final regular-season start with what he referred to at the time as a "small tweak" in his right hamstring. He was scheduled to pitch Game 1 against the Cubs but was pushed back to Game 3 to provide him extra time to build more strength and endurance in his hamstring. He was pitching well before his injury, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three regular-season starts. Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs, althoiugh his teams are only 3-3. Quintana has been an excellent pickup by the Cubs (traded away by the cross-town White Sox), going 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts for the Cubs. The Cubs have his last six starts with Quintana posting a 2.82 ERA over that span. Quintana has never faced the Nationals. The pick: With Scherzer's health a question mark, I'm not sure why the Nats should be favored at Wrigley over the defending champs. Especially when one considers that the Cubs have gone 10-4 in Quintana's 14 starts , including 7-1 here at Wrigley. What's more, Scherzer is win-less in his last five postseason starts. The Cubs’ pitching staff has completely dominated the Nats' lineup, except for that one inning. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Chicago a 8* play. |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 138 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks needed a breakout game (win) last Sunday night and the sad-sack Colts played the perfect foil, as the Seattle romped to a 46-18 victory. That evened the team's record at 2-2 and now in Week 5, the Seahawks will travel to Los Angeles to take on one of 2017's surprise NFL teams, the Rams. The Rams were 4-12 in 2016, the team's first season back in LA (had moved to St Louis for the start of the season), finishing as the NFL's most-impotent offense (14.0 PPG on 262.7 YPG). However, QB Jared Goff (0-7 as a starter as a rookie), has led a turnaround that has the Rams 3-1 and looking for a third straight win in this contest with Seattle. Seattle:The Seahawks didn't score a TD in either of its first two games (21 points on seven FGs) and while the Seahawks put up 27 points at Tennessee, the defense allowed 33 points on 420 yards. Russell Wilson had a breakout" game against the Titans, completing 29 of 49 for 373 yards with four TDs and had 295 yards plus two more TDs against the Colts. The Seattle offense which has scored just 21 points in Weeks 1 and 2, has scored 73 points the last two games. Maybe more importantly, after allowing Tennessee to roll up 420 yards in Week 3, Seattle's defense looked more like the one we've seen in recent years, allowing the Colts to gain only 237 total yards. LA Rams: Jared Goff has played like a No. 1 overall pick through four games, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,072 yards with seven TDs and just one interception in 117 attempts (QB rating of 112.2). RB Todd Gurley has 362 rushing yards with four TDs plus leads the team with 20 catches. Goff also has developing 'go-to' WRs in Sammy Watkins (14 catches) and Robert Woods (12). After averaging woeful totals on offense in 2016 (see above), the 2017 Rams are the NFL's top-scoring team (35.5 PPG) on 386.5 YPG (5th). However, the defense adds little 'cover,' ranking 28th in points allowed (26.2 per) on 2367.8 YPG (ranks 27th). The pick: Seattle's offense found its groove in the second half against the Titans and 'poured it on' in the second half of last Sunday night's against the Colts. The Seahawks rolled up a season-high 194 rushing yards last Sunday night, while QB Wilson had the most accurate game of his career in connecting on 21 of 26 passes. The defense isn't as elite as its been in the past but it was much better in Week 4. Sure, the Rams' offense will be a tougher test but Seattle's offense shouldn't have much trouble against a Rams defense which ranks among the worst in the NFL. Let's not forget that Seattle has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons, while the Rams haven't had a winning season since 2003! Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 134 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Ford Field in Detroit is the site of a Week 5 game between a pair of 3-1 teams. The Panthers went from a 15-1 regular season and a Super Bowl loss to the Broncos in 2015, to a 6-10 record in 2016, which left them in last-place in the NFC South. The Detroit Lions were 9-7 last year (lost in the wild card round), the team's third postseason appearance in the last six years. That said, expectations were pretty low entering 2017, so the team's 3-1 start is a surprise, especially since its lone loss (30-26 to the Falcons), was to say the least, highly controversial. Carolina: The Panthers won 33-30 last Sunday at New England, with QB Cam Newton reminding all of his MVP-like talent. He completed 22 of 29 for 316 yards and three TDs plus ran for 44 yards and another score. Jonathan Stewart had his best game of 2017 so far, gaining 68 yards on 14 carries. However, Newton's positive mojo has been interrupted Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford has shown a newfound maturity (signed a 'monster' deal prior to the season), throwing seven TD passes with only one interception in 138 attempts. RB Ameer Abdullah appears headed for a breakout season, after rushing for a career-high 94 yards and a TD in last week’s 14-7 triumph at Minnesota.The third-year RB from Nebraska had 597 yards as a rookie but played in just two games last season. He has 257 yards after four games in 2017, putting him on pace for a 1,00-yard season. The Lions are just a half-yard shy of being the only undefeated team in the NFC. Detroit lost its last home game when, upon an officials' review, Golden Tate was ruled just short of the goal line in the closing seconds against Atlanta. The game ended on that play, because a 10-second runoff was required after the review because the Lions didn't have any timeouts left. The pick: Noting all of the above, I'm still skeptical about this Detroit team. The Lions have been extremely opportunistic on both sides of the ball, ranking 10th in scoring offense (24.8 PPG) and fourth in scoring defense (17.5 PPG) despite being 24th in total offense (just 299.8 YPG) and 15th in total defense. Their plus-9 turnover margin has played a huge role in that and the question I have is, can they keep it up? Throw in that PK Matt Prater has made an NFL-record four FGs of 55 yards or longer this season, after just four games. It's called "regression to the mean." Make Carolina an 8* play. |
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10-07-17 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Connor McDavid was made the league's highest-paid player in the off-season (signed eight-year, $100 million contract) and wasted no time looking to prove he's worth every penny. He had seven shots on goal in the Oilers' season-opener Wednesday vs. Calgary, scoring all of the team's goals in a 3-0 win. Goalie Cam Talbot 'pitched' a 26-save shutout. The Oilers play their first road game of the season tonight in Vancouver, as the Canucks play their season-opener. Vancouver was 30-43-9 (7th in the Pacific Division), finishing with the second-fewest goals in the league. The Canucks produced just 11 goals in a season-ending eight-game losing streak. Edmonton: The Oilers are a 'sexy' pick to win the West Conference this coming season and we saw nothing Wednesday to dull those expectations. Cam Talbot tied for the league lead with 42 wins last season and looked sharp in his 19th career shutout. "I would start the season with a win any day of the week -- the shutout is just an added bonus," Talbot said. "To play the way we did tonight defensively and to start out with a shutout is pretty special." Edmonton is predominantly a young team but the Oilers are setting their sights on a Stanley Cup after rebuilding largely through four first-overall draft picks that resulted from six mediocre seasons. Vancouver: The Canucks opened last season with four straight victories (all at home) but it was all downhill from there. They followed that hot start by losing their next nine, en route to a last-place finish in the Pacific Division. Henrik and Daniel Sedin have enjoyed long and illustrious careers with Vancouver but the fact that the 37-year-old twins comprise the team's top line speaks volumes of the challenges awaiting the Canucks and new coach Travis Green. Bo Horvat was the only player to score 20 goals and joined Daniel Sedin as the only ones to eclipse 50 points. The Canucks will be looking for Markus Granlund and Sven Baertschi to continue their rise after notching career highs of 19 and 18 goals, respectively. Veterans Thomas Vanek and Sam Gagner were brought in to bolster the attack while the hope is that Loui Eriksson can rebound after dipping from 30 goals in 2015-16 to 11 last season. There is talent on the blue line, headed by Alexander Edler and youngsters Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher, but neither Jakob Markstrom nor Anders Nilsson has been proven to be a full-time starter in net. The pick: OK, Edmonton is the far superior team but let's not forget, Vancouver opened last season with four straight wins. Deja vu here in October 2017? Take the 1 1/2 goals and make the Canucks a 6* play. |
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10-07-17 | Michigan State +13 v. Michigan | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 117 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Michigan State was a huge flop in 2016, opening No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but wound up finishing with a 3-9 record. However, the Spartans are 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) to open 2017, having lost to only current No. 21, Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh has led Michigan to back-to-back 10-3 seasons and his Wolverines opened No. 11 in this season's AP preseason poll. Now, four games into the 2017 season, Michigan is 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten) and ranked No. 7. Wilton Speight and John O'Korn battled for the starting QB job in the spring, with Speight winning. However, O'Korn came off the bench to replace Speight last week vs. Purdue and was impressive (18-of-26 for 270 yards and a TD). Speight will miss "multiple weeks," according to Harbaugh, so it's now OKorn's job. Michigan State: The Spartans are 3-1 SU & ATS so far but all games have come at home. They look for a "statement victory" when they take to the road for the first time this season on Saturday. QB Brian Lewerke is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 963 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions. Lewerke also leads the way with 248 rushing yards (2 TDs), as MSU averages 187.5 YPG (52nd). Defensively, Michigan State is allowing just 18.0 PPG (21st) on 248.3 YPG (4th). Michigan: The Wolverines average a modest 223.0 YPG passing (72nd), regardless of who has been under center (mostly Speight). The ground game is averaging 184.2 YPG (53rd), led by Ty Isaac (356 yards and just one TD). Defense is Michigan's strong suit again in 2017, despite the Wolves' losing 10 of 11 starters from last year's unit. No matter, Michigan is allowing 13.5 PPG (8th) on 203.2 YPG, which is best in the nation! The pick: This is the 110th meeting (has been contested each year since 1945!) with Michigan leading 69-35-5. However, aren't we talking pointspreads here? If so, you may be interested that Michigan State is on a current nine-game ATS winning streak in its series with “big brother” Michigan. Expect a defensive battle, so taking all these points is the way to go. Make Michigan State an 8* play. |
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10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +16 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 21 Notre Dame will bring its 4-1 record to Chapel Hill to take on the 1-4 Tar Heels. The Fighting Irish's lone loss came 20-19 against Georgia, which is now 5-0 and ranked 5th in the latest AP poll. The Irish are a complete football team, which is hardly the case with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has allowed at least 27 points in all four of its losses and 23 in its lone win, beating ODU 53-23. However, ODU's only wins have come against FCS Albany and UMass, a team which owns the longest active losing streak among FBS teams (nine). Against Va Tech, ODU lost 38-0! Notre Dame: I stated that Notre Dame is a complete football team but that's when QB Barndon Wimbush and RB Josh Adams are healthy. Wimbush is a true multi-threat, passing for 783 yards with six TDs and two INTs, while rushing for 402 yards (5.9 YPC) with eight TDs, Adams lead the team with 658 rush yards (9.0 YPC) and four TDs. Notre Dame is averaging a whopping 301.4 YPG on the ground (7th), a big reason the team has averaged 41.4 PPG (14th). The defense has been solid, allowing just 18.2 PPG (23rd). North Carolina: QB Chazz Surratt has thrown for 988 yards with five TDs and two interceptions, while Jordan Brown is the top rusher for North Carolina with 269 yards and three TDs on 5.0 YPC. The defense allowed 403yards rushing (6.1 YPC) against Ga. Tech (lost 33-7) and now must contend with ND's ground 'assault!' That hardly seems likely, as the Tar Heels rank 113th in allowing 221.8 YPG on the ground. The pick: QB Surratt is a freshman who beat out transfer Brandon Harris for the job of replacing No. 2 overall NFL pick Mitchell Trubisky and he's just one of the many new personnel changes on offense for North Carolina. Notre Dame has been dominant outside of its tough one-point loss to Georgia but here, the numbers just seems unseasonably (or is that unreasonably?) high, especially if Winbush and Adams are limited. Take the huge home dog and make North Carolina a 10* play. |
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10-07-17 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: A pair of 2-3 schools (both 0-1 in the ACC) will meet early Saturday afternoon at the Carrier Dome, when Pittsburgh visits Syracuse. The Panthers own wins over Youngstown State (FCS) and Rice (1-4), while losing to ranked teams Penn State (current No. 4) and Oklahoma State (current No. 15), as well as 3-1 Georgia Tech. Syracuse owns wins over Central Connecticut State and Central Michigan in its first three games (lost to MTSU in between), then lost its last two to LSU and NC State. Pittsburgh: The Panthers are off a 42-10 win over Rice (snapping a three-game losing streak), as QB Max Browne was 28-of-32 for 410 yards (just the ninth 400-yard passing game in school history) and four TDs and zero TDs. It was the best performance of his career. Browne gets very little help from Pitt's running game, which averages only 114.4 YPG (110th). Despite last week';s 42 points, Pitt is averaging a modest 24.4 PPG, which ranks 98th. The same is true for Pitt's D, as despite holding Rice to just 10 points, the Panthers are allowing 31.6 PPG (101st) on 441.2 YPG (105th). Syracuse: The Orange lost 33-25 to the Wolfpack at NC State in their last game but QB Eric Dungey went 30-of-47 for 385 yards, one score and a pick, while also leading the with 16 carries for 44 yards and two TDs rushing. Dungey has averaged 287.4 YPG through the air (Syracuse ranks 15th in passing YPG)) with seven TDs, along with 277 rushing yards and another seven TDs. WR Ervin Philips was named ACC Receiver of the Week after breaking school and conference records with 17 receptions for a career-high 188 yards against the Wolfpack. Despite a reasonably taxing early schedule, the Syracuse defense is allowing 24.4 PPG (55th) on 357.6 YPG (50th). The pick: These schools have played every year since 1955 and the Panthers have won 13 of the last 15. However, Syracuse is the better team here in 2017 and won't forget that Pittsburgh won a 76-61 shootout against them in the regular-season finale for both teams last season, a contest which was the highest-scoring game in FBS history. Syracuse gets the win and cover this time around (10*). |
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10-05-17 | Patriots -5 v. Bucs | Top | 19-14 | Push | 0 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Thursday Night football on CBS to open NFL Week 5 of the 2017 season. The 2-2 New England Patriots will visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There was talk prior to the season that the Pats just could go 16-0 in 2017 but not only are the Pats just 2-2, they are a last-second Brady TD pass against Houston in Week 3 from being 1-3! Tampa Bay saw its Week 1 games vs. the Dolphins postponed to later in the season due to Hurricane Irma and enters 2-1 after edging the Giants 25-23 last Sunday at home, on 34-yard FG with no time left on the clock. There is not a lot of history between the two clubs, with the Pats leading the all-time series 6-2. New England: Tom Brady may be 40 years-old but he is NOT the problem for New England. He's completing 66.5 percent of his passes for 1,399 yards (Pats rank 1st with 328.3 YPG through the air) with 10 TDs and not a single interception in 155 attempts (QB rating is 116.6). New featured runner Mike Gillislee is sitting on 57 carries for 194 yards with four TDs but hasn't topped 70 yards in a game (Pats average 95.5 rushing YPG to rank 20th). TE Rob Gronkowski is New England’s top receiver with 20 receptions for 318 yards and two TDs. New England is averaging 32.2 PPG (2nd), so again, that's not the problem. The issue is, the Patriots are off to their worst defensive start under coach Bill Belichick, having allowed 128 points and 1,827 total yards, an average of 32.0 PPG (31st) and 456.8 yards YPG (32nd). According to STATS, since the 1970 NFL merger, it's the most points allowed in the first four games by a team that had the best scoring defense in the previous season (Pats allowed just 15.6 PPG in 2016). Tampa Bay: Expectations were high for the Bucs entering 2017.QB Jameis Winston came up big in Sunday's 25-23 home win against the Giants, going 5-for-5 on the final drive that led to the game-winning FG as time expired. He was 22-for-38 with 332 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants but in the team's 34-17 loss in Week 3 at Minnesota, he threw three INTs and fumbled twice (did not lose one, though). Still, consistency is Winston's problem (safe to say he's no Brady). Tampa Bay has had no running game, averaging 84.7 YPG to rank 26th but the good news is, Doug Martin returns after a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs (he sat out the final week of 2016). Martin's had a pair of 1,000-yard rushing seasons in his previous five years. The defense ranks 30th in yards allowed (394.3 per game) but is a middle-of-the-pack 16th in points allowed (21.3 PPG). The pick: The Bucs need to run the ball better and while Martin is back with the team, it's unclear how much of a role he will play in his season debut. I noted Tampa Bay's overall defensive stats above but will add that most of the damage against the Bucs has come through the air, as they rank 31st in allowing 315.7 YPG. How can that be good news against Brady, who was 9-0 on Thursday nights until New England lost to Kansas City in its season opener? The Pats were a perfect 8-0 SU on the road in 2016 and won their lone road game of 2017 against New Orleans, 36-20. Like in this contest, the Pats were coming off a loss vs. the Saints and after taking down New Orleans, the Pats improved to an impressive 43-6 SU off a loss! How does one buck that trend? With a victory on Thursday night, Brady (185-54) will tie Brett Favre (186-112) and Peyton Manning (186-79) for the most regular-season wins in NFL history. Expect Brady to chalk up another 'notch' on his ever-growing NFL legacy. Lay the points and make the Pats a 10* play. |
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10-05-17 | Louisville -4 v. NC State | Top | 25-39 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisville and NC State are both 4-1 as the two ACC schools meet Thursday night on ESPN at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina. Louisville comes in ranked 14th and NC State just entered the AP top-25 for the first time this past Sunday, at No. 24. Louisville's loss came to current No. 2 Clemson, while NC State lost to South Carolina of the SEC. Both schools are in the ACC's Atlantic Division, which Clemson leads at 3-0. Since Louisville lost to Clemson, it is 1-1 in league play and can ill-afford another league loss to NC State, which comes into this game at 2-0. The series history reveals that Louisiille has won six of the seven all-time meetings, with the Wolfpack's lone win coming in the 2011 Belk Bowl, before Louisville joined the ACC. Louisville: The Cardinals feature reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and while it's highly-unlikely that Jackson will repeat, he's having an excellent season. He's completing 64.0% for an average of 327.2 YPG passing with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He's Louisville's leading rusher as well, rushing for 437 yards (6.1 YPC) and five TDs, for a unit averaging 210.2 YPG on the ground (33rd). The Card are putting up 40.0 PPG (23rd) and allowing 24.6 PPG (51st), although they are doing better in yards allowed, ranking 27th at 317.6 YPG. NC State: The Wolfpack opened up the year with a home loss to South Carolina but has rattled off four straight wins over Marshall, Furman, Florida State and Syracuse. Three of the wins are no big deal and the FSU win's value is TBD! QB Ryan Finley has completed 71.9% for an average of 280.6 YPG through the air, throwing nine TD passes and not a single interception in 192 pass attempts. The running game is average at-best (168.2 YPG ranks 64th), as is the team's defense, which allows 23.4 PPG (52nd) on 370.4 YPG (60th). It's been "hard times" at Louisville as of late with the revelations surounding the basketball program but that's unlikely to faze the football team. As noted above, NC State's wins have hardly been impressive (jury is still out on the FSU win) and just how did the Wolfpack lose at home to South Carolina, if it's really a top-25 team? Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino is 14-0 against North Carolina-based schools and Lamar Jackson just 'destroyed' NC State's defense in last year's meeting, accounting for 431 yards of total offense and four TDs in a 54-13 win. Is this game "too much" for NC State? Maybe so, as the last time NC State won a game between two ranked teams in Raleigh came all the way back in 1992, against Wake Forest (not exactly a FB power!). Make Louisville a 10* play. |
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10-05-17 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Rangers are coming off a third straight 100-point season but hope to do better than only reaching the second round of the playoffs, where they were upset by the Ottawa Senators in six games last spring. As for the Colorado Avalanche, they were so bad last season (22-56-4) that it's almost impossible for this season to be worse. The Avalanche managed just 48 points last season, the lowest total since the expansion Atlanta Thrashers totaled 39 points in the 1999-2000 season. The Avalanche finished last in the league in goals per game (2.01), goals allowed (3.37), power-play efficiency (12.6) and second to last on the penalty kill (77.3). The two teams will open their respective seasons against each other at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night in New York City. Colorado: Clearly, there is nowhere for Colorado to go but up. Potential trade pieces Matt Duchene and captain Gabriel Landeskog remained with the club during last year's dismal campaign but let's see how they fare, this time around at the trade deadline. Mikko Rantanen's 20 goals led the way for Colorado, which needs more on the offensive front from former top overall picks Nathan MacKinnon (team-best 37 assists, 53 points) and Nail Yakupov (three goals) as well as second-overall selection Landeskog (18 goals). Colorado's former Vezina Trophy finalist Semyon Varlamov, who is returning from a hip surgery, will be put to the test in short order behind a leaky defense that yielded a league-worst 276 goals. NY Rangers: New York (48-28-6, 4th in Metropolitan Division) boasts substantial depth as opposed to individual stars on offense, with Chris Kreider (club-high 28 goals), Mats Zuccarello (team-leading 44 assists, 59 points), Kevin Hayes (49 points) and Mika Zibanejad (37 points). The 33-year-old Rick Nash (23 goals) enters the final season of a four-year deal that pays the him $7.8 million. The biggest off-season changes for New York occurred with one trade designed to create cap space, dealing top center Derek Stepan and backup goaltender Antti Raanta to the Arizona Coyotes. The Rangers filled the hole left by Stepan from within the organization but had to sign former Winnipeg Jets goaltender Ondrej Pavelec to back up Lundqvist.The Rangers also signed smooth-skating free agent Kevin Shattenkirk to a four-year, $26.6 million contract to calm the waters following the off-season departure of respected defenseman Dan Girardi. Shattenkirk will make his official debut on Broadway, tonight. Speaking of Lundqvist, he endured his worst season last year since entering the NHL in 2005-06, so the Rangers are hoping Shattenkirk's presence helps fortify the defense and takes pressure off the veteran goaltender. The pick: While it's easy to say "it can't get worse than last year for the Avalanche," we don't know that. However, I believe it will be better and as for the Rangers, a 100-point season may be beyond the team' reach in the top-heavy Metropolitan Division.. I'll take the 1 1/2 goals and make Colorado an 8* play. |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | Top | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 144 h 20 m | Show |
Indianapolis: With Luck still on the shelf, the Colts made a trade with the Pats to get QB Jacoby Brissett after they were routed 46-9 by the Rams in Week 1. Brissett was a noticeable improvement over Scott Tolzein and the Colts took the Cards to OT before losing in Week 2. Then last Sunday, Brissett led the Colts with 259 passing yards and a TD on 17 of 24 passing, while also notching a pair of rushing TDs. He became the first QB in franchise history to rush for two TDs, pass for another and throw for at least 250 yards! T.Y. Hilton had a huge game with seven catches for 153 yards with one TD. The running game still needs to improve, as the Colts are averaging 81.0 YPG (25th). After getting shredded by the Rams for 46 points, Indy's D held the Cardinals to 16 points in an OT, then had a sack and three interceptions against the Browns. Seattle: The Seahawks didn't score a TD in either of its first two games (21 points on seven FGs) and while the Seahawks put up 27 points at Tennessee, the defense allowed 33 points on 420 yards. Russell Wilson had a breakout" game last Sunday, completing 29 of 49 for 373 yards with four TDs but to no avail with Seattle's defense going 'south!' Like th Colts, Seattele needs to get its running going, averaging only 96.7 YPG (19th) through the first three games. Getting back to Seattle's defense, it has long prided itself on not allowing a 100-yard rusher but it has now allowed one in back-to-back weeks and was gashed for 195 yards on the ground by DeMarco Murray (115) and the Titans last Sunday. The pick: Sure, Brissett gives the Colts a better shot but note the team's two competitive games were at home, while Indy was crushed in its lone road game (see above). The Seahawks are in unfamiliar territory at 1-2 and have hardly resembled the team that has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons. However, Seattle's offense finally came to life after two ugly efforts to open the season and should have few problems scoring here against the Colts D. Seattle's D is off an embarrassing effort and will rebound in this one. Look out Mr. Brissett. Make Seattle an 8* play. |
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10-01-17 | Eagles +1 v. Chargers | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 140 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Eagles are off to a solid 2-1 start in 2017 (QB Carson Wentz is now 5-1 in September games) but Sunday is October 1st and the Eagles are traveling cross-country for their Week 4 game. However, the good news is, Philly's opponent is the now-Los Angeles Chargers (at StubHub Center in Carson, Ca.), who have opened 0-3 in 2017, after ending the 2016 season 0-5 (combined run of 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS). Philadelphia: Wentz has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 816 yards with five TDs and two INTs (90.3 QB rating). He's led the Eagles to 25.7 PPG (10th), somewhat helped by a running game averaging 119.3 YPG (9th) but on a solid 4.5 YPC. LeGarrette Blount has underachieved so far, with only 113 yards in three games (we'll see?). Philly's secondary noticeably wore down in last Sunday's narrow 27-24 win over N.Y. Giants (New York scored all 24 of its points in the fourth quarter) and on the season, Philly has allowed 22.7 PPG (20th) on 321.0 YPG (21st). LA Chargers: The Chargers opened with two close losses (24-21 at Denver & 19-7 at home vs. Miami). They then lost 24-10 at home to KC last week, although they held KC to a modest 311 yards (three Rivers INTS led to 17 points!). LA has allowed 22.3 PPG (a little worse than average (ranks 19th) on 322.7 YPG, which is a little better than average (ranks 13th). QB Philip Rivers went 20-of-40 for 237 yards and three picks against KC and comes in completing 65.2% for 760 yards with four TDs and four INTs. The running game is once again proving to be a liability. Gordon is averaging 48.7 YPG on 3.3 YPC and the team checks in at 70.7 YPG rushing, ranking 27th. The Chargers will be in for a very long season if they can't average more than the 16.0 points they have through three games (ranks 26th)! The pick: This marks the Chargers' third straight home game and while two of the team's three losses this year have been closely contested (lost by three and two points), the Chargers are making a habit of losing "the close ones." The team has seemingly mastered the art of losing close games. It lost an NFL-high eight games last year by seven points less and has already lost two more in that range in 2017. With just nine wins since the beginning of the 2015 season (two-plus seasons), I want no part of the Chargers against a Philly team which just may be 'sneaky good!' Make the Eagles a 10* play. |
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10-01-17 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
\ The set-up. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will square off in the rubber match of this three-game series Sunday, although there is clearly nothing much at stake. In fact, both teams are facing off-seasons which will be likely to be filled with change, including hiring new managers. Collins (69) is the oldest manager in baseball and has steered the Mets for seven seasons, longer than anyone else in team history but a tough 2017 has taken its toll. Is it just a matter of when he is fired? As for the Phillies, Pete Mackanin is already out as Phillies manager, although he's been allowed to manage this final weekend series.The Phillies won Saturday but the Mets won 7-4 in 11 innings on Saturday, when Asdrubal Cabrera hit a three-run HR in the 11th inning. For Phildelphia, the Phillies played well enough down the stretch (have gone 22-17 at home since the All Star break) to avoid a 100-loss season and at 65-96, cannot finish with MLB's worst record (Giants are 63-98). The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (1-2 & 3.18 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets and Nick Pivetta (7-10 & 6.26 ERA) for the Phillies. Syndergaard was rocked for five runs in 1 1/3 innings of a 23-5 loss at Washington on April 30 and was then shelved with a tear in his lat muscle. His 'story' was emblematic of the Mets' season. He made a one-inning start Sep. 23 (also against the Nationals), allowing just one single in a scoreless inning that required only five pitches. Syndergaard's last full start was against Philadelphia on April 20, when he struck out 10 and allowed three ERs in seven innings, which left him 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his five career starts versus the Phillies. Pivetta has won two straight starts, allowing two ERs on nine hits over 12 innings (1.50 ERA) with 12 strikeouts. However, the rookie owns a 1.52 WHIP and .287 BAA to go along with his ugly 6.26 ERA. He had perhaps his best start of the year at New York on July 2, allowing a run and one hit over seven innings to get the win, but was reached for 12 runs in 9 2/3 innings over the next two meetings with the Mets! The Phillies are 10-15 in all of his starts in this, his rookie season. The pick:Syndergaard won't stay around long (he's expected to be limited to around 25 pitches) but I'll still back the Mets here, as Pivetta has been rocked in his last two outings by the Mets (12 ERs over 9 2/3 innings for 11.17 ERA). In what is likely Terry Collins' last game, I'll take the 1 1/2 runs and make the Mets a 6* play. |
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10-01-17 | Saints -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 134 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL will play a second straight game in London and the fans at Wembley Stadium are hoping to see a more competitive game than the Jags' surprising 44-7 rout of the Ravens last Sunday. The Saints opened their 2017 season by losing 29-19 at Minnesota in Week 1 and 36-20 at home vs. the Pats in Week 2. The Saints earned their first win of the season 34-13 in Carolina this past Sunday against the Panthers. The Dolphins make the trek "across the pond" at 1-1. The team's Week 1 game vs. Tampa Bay was postponed due to Hurricane Irma and after a 19-17 Week 2 win over the Chargers in LA and a 20-6 loss on the road to the NY Jets last Sunday, the Dolphins will be on the road (and how!) for a third consecutive contest. New Orleans: The age-less Drew Brees was 22-of-29 for 220 yards and three TDs in last Sunday's win and enters this contest completing 68.5 percent for 867 yards (Saints rank 5th in passing YPG) with six TDs and not a single INT in 111 attempts! Adrian Peterson has been a non-factor (77 yards on 3.3 YPC), as the running game has not been much of a help, averaging 96.7 YPG (18th). Defense has been a major concern in recent years for New Orleans and that's true again so far in 2017, as the Saints are allowing 26.0 PPG (30th) on 437.7 YPG (31st). Miami: The jury is still out on Jay Cutler, who is completing 64.9 percent but for only 450 yards (Miami ranks 21st in passing YPG) with two TDs and one INT. Cutler has gotten no help from a running game averaging 70.5 YPG (29th) and Miami enters averaging only 12.5 PPG (30th) on 280.5 YPG (28th). The defense has allowed 351.5 YPG (25th) but only 18.5 PPG (6th). The team will have to cut down on those yards, or that scoring average will almost surely rise. The pick: Brees is still on top of his game and Miami is allowing 8.6 yards per pass play, the worst mark in the NFL. The London folks may be in for quite a display from the veteran. Miami's offense is coming off an embarrassing performance in last week's 20-6 loss to the Jets, avoiding a shutout by scoring in garbage time on the game's final play. That last game was a disaster," Miami head coach Gase said. "That's obvious, and it's embarrassing." He may have seen nothing yet. 2017 could be a long year for the Dolphins. Yes, New Orleans has its defensive problems but does Miami have the players to take advantage? I think not! Meanwhile, the Saints have lost to two quality teams (Vikings and Pats) and the team has yet to commit a turnover. I'll throw in that the Saints are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 October games and while maybe it means nothing, it's not a bad thing. Make New Orleans an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma State opened the season by beating Tulsa (59-24), South Alabama (44-7) and Pittsburgh (59-21) but was humbled at home last Saturday 44-31 by TCU, being done in by four turnovers. The Cowboys had fans dreaming of a Big 12 title and possible berth in the College Football Playoff but now Oklahoma State just looks to get back on track with a ninth straight win against Texas Tech when the Cowboys visit the 3-0 Red Raiders on Saturday in Lubbock. Texas Tech forced five turnovers in its 27-24 road win over Houston last week and are currently second in FBS in turnover margin (plus-2.3 per game). Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph threw for 398 yards against the Horned Frogs but had two interceptions and lost a fumble, dashing his early-season push for the Heisman Trophy. He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,533 yards with 13 touchdowns and three INTs. He has a deep receiving corps with four players with 14 or more catches, combining for 12 TD receptions. WR James Washington leads the way with 19 catches for 520 yards and four TDs, averaging 27.4 YPC. The running game averages 175.0 YOPG (5.0 YPC), led by the duo of Hill (352 yards on 5.7 YPC) and King (210 yards on 6.5 YPC). The defense has allowed 24.0 PPG (61st) on 366.0 YPG (53rd). Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are ninth in scoring (45.0 PPG) on 587.3 YPG (4th). QB Nic Shimonek is completing 73.6 percent for 1,248 yards with 11 TDs and one interception. WR Keke Coutee has 28 catches for 446 yards and four scores. Defensively, Texas Tech is allowing 26.3 PPG (73rd) on 407.3 YPG (85th). That may not seem like a big deal but note that Texas Tech allowed 43.5 PPG on 554 YPG last season. The pick: Texas Tech rallied from a second half, double-digit deficit last year, only to lose 45-44 on a missed extra point with 1:44 left in the game. The Cowboys come to Lubbock in an attempt to extend their eight-game winning streak in the series. Oklahoma State dropped nine places in this week's Associated Press poll (falling from No. 6 to No. 15), so this is a "MUST win." Considering that the Red Raiders are just 6-29 SU vs. ranked teams, the 8* play is on Oklahoma State. |
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09-30-17 | Ohio State -29.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 56-0 | Win | 100 | 104 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ohio State Buckeyes may never overcome that home loss to Oklahoma and qualify for the CFP, unless the team "runs the table." Ohio State is 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) and will visit High Point Solutions Stadium in New Brunswick, NJ to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3, 0-1 Big Ten). These schools had never met until Rutgers joined the Big Ten and Ohio State has won by scores of 58-0 (2016), 49-7 (2015) and 56-17(2014). Safe to predict the Buckeyes won't lose here, either. Ohio State: J.T. Barrett was not up to the task vs. Oklahoma (zero passing or rushing TDs with one INT) but has completed 37-of-50 passes with seven scoring TDs and zero interceptions in victories over Army (38-7) and UNLV (54-21) the last two weeks. In last week's game vs. UNLV, Ohio State had seven different players catch a TD pass. Barrett is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 966 yards with 10 TDs and one interception, while adding rushing yards ( TDs). OSU has excellent offensively balance, passing for 319.2 YPG and 229.8 YPG on the ground. J.K. Dobbins leads the way with 520 yards (7.5 YPC) and three touchdowns. More good news is that sophomore RB Mike Weber has been cleared to play after being bothered by a hamstring injury that has limited him to seven carries after he rushed for 1,096 yards last year. Defensively, Ohio State is allowing 20.0 PPG (38th) on 367.2 YPG (56th). Rutgers: Head coach Chris Ash was an Urban Meyer assistant and may be re-thinking his decision to take the Rutgers job. The Scarlet Knights were 2-10 last year (won home games over Howard and New Mexico) and have opened 1-3 in his second year (lone win over Morgan State at home!). The good news in New Jersey is that the Rutgers' D is allowing 18.2 PPG (28th) on 298.2 YPG (24th). That's down from 37.5 PPG allowed in 2016 on 451 YPG! Rutgers has QB woes for the last few seasons and the team's latest starter is Kyle Bolin, who is completing just 57.3 percent of his passes for 642 yards with three TDs and six INTs. The offense averages only 326.8 YPG (111th) and is a little better in scoring, averaging 27.2 PPG (83rd). The pick: I just noted that Rutgers is averaging 27.2 PPG but that's because the Scarlet Knights scored 65 points against Morgan State. In its other three games, Rutgers has averaged a paltry 14.7 PPG. How can this team 'hang' with Ohio State? Urban Meyer is in his sixth season at Ohio State and comes to Rutgers having gone 23-1 SU on the road. Yes, this is an imposing pointspread but as noted above, in three meetings the last three years, Ohio Stat has out-scored Rutgers by a combined 163-24. That's 54.3-to-8.0 PPG! Lay the points and make Ohio State an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -14.5 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Northwestern Wildcats and 3-0 Wisconsin Badgers meet Saturday afternoon at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. Both are members of the Big Ten West and this marks the conference opener for each school. The Wildcats own home wins over Nevada (31-20) and Bowling Green (49-7) but couldn't handle the Blue Devils at Durham, falling 41-17 to Duke (currently 4-0). Wisconsin opened its season with 59-10 and 31-14 home wins over Utah State and Florida Atlantic, respectively, before winning 40-6 at BYU. Both teams come into this contest off a bye. Wisconsin leads the all-time series 58-35-5 and note that the home team has won eight of the last 10, recently. Northwestern: The Wildcats are averaging 32.3 PPG (58th) on 459.0 YPG (45th). QB Clayton Thorson is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 842 yards with four TDs and three INTs. The Wildcats' ground game is averaging 160.3 YPG (74th), led by RB Justin Jackson. He's now a senior and entered his final season off three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons (he's on the verge of breaking the school's rushing record). Jackson was held to 18 yards at Duke but topped 100 yards in Northwestern's two wins (248 yards with four TDs, overall). Defensively, Northwestern is allowing 22.7 PPG (52nd) on 410.3 YPG (90th). Wisconsin: The Badgers were ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and are currently ranked 10th. QB Alex Hornibrook is completing 70 percent of his passes for 701 yards (Wisconsin averages 235.7 YPG through the air) with eight TDs and just one INT. He's greatly aided by a Wisconsin ground game averaging 275.3 YPG (12th), led by RB Jonathan Taylor (438 yards on 8.3 YPC with five TDs). On the other side of the ball, not much is different than from years past. Wisconsin currently checks in allowing just 10.0 PPG (5th) on 248.0 YPG (7th). The pick: This Wisconsin offense wasn't up to the task of winning at Durham against Duke. No way it wins here at Camp Randall. The Badgers defense is a 'horse of a different color,' coming off holding BYU to 192 total yards and it has yet to allow a SINGLE point in the second halves of its three games to-date! Wisconsin entered the 2017 season having gone 60-9 SU at home the previous 10 seasons (that's less than one loss per season). Don't expect a loss here either and if fact, lay the points and make the Badgers a 10* play. |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL -7 v. Duke | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 80 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Hurricanes have two scheduled saffected by Hurrican Irma and enter this Saturday game playing for just the third time this year, instead of the fifth. No. 14 Miami is currently sitting at 2-0, following a 41-13 win over Bethune-Cookman (9/2), a canceled game against Arkansas State (9/9) a postponed game with Florida State (9/16) and a 52-30 victory over Toledo. Miami will travel to Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham to face the 4-0 Duke Blue Devils, who are aiming for their first 5-0 start since the 1994 team opened 7-0. This marks the 15th meeting between the Hurricanes and Blue Devils since the series began in 1976, with Miami holding a 12-2 series advantage. Miami-Fl: The 'Canes have averaged 46.5 PPG (8th) on 571.0 YPG (6th) but of course, their two opponents have been Bethune-Cookman and Toledo. QB Brad Kaaya has moved on, replaced by Malik Rosier. He's completed 68.8% for 688 yards with six TDs and just one INT. RB Mark Walton has 353 rushing yards (204 on just 11 carries vs. Toledo) and is averaging a whopping 13.0 YPC with three TDs. Miami's D has yet to be tested but comes in allowing 21.5 PPG (47th). Duke: The Blue Devils have an offense capable of testing Miami's D. Duke comes in averaging 40.5 PPG (23rd) on 471.0 YPG (38th). QB Daniel Jones s completing 61.9% for 904 yards with five TDs and two INTs. He's also a running threat, gaining 141 yards with three TDs. The rushing attack averages 228.0 YPG (27th), led by the duo of Shaun Wilson (349 yards / 5.9 YPC) and Brittain Brown (35 yards / 6.7 YPC). Duke's defense owns impressive numbers, allowing 15.2 PPG (17th) on 271.8 YPG (16th), including just 75.5 YPG on the round (5th). The pick: Sure, Miami owns a 12-2 series lead but the Blue Devils will certainly remember the last time the Hurricanes visited Durham (in 2015), as Miami pulled out the 30-27 victory with a controversial last-gasp 91-yard kickoff return that featured eight laterals and four missed calls that resulted in suspensions for the ACC officiating crew. Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fl, behind 396 passing yards and four TD passes from Kaaya. Revenge is clearly with Duke but this is easily the Blue Devils' biggest test. Duke opened with three home games and had plenty against 1-3 North Carolina. Miami has a make-up game next Saturday with Florida State but a loss here makes that encounter significantly less important. Miami won't need any late-game heroics in this one. Make Miami an 8* play. |
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09-28-17 | Texas -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 57 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Longhorns and Iowa State Cyclones meet Thursday night on ESPN at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. It's the Big-12 opener for both teams, although the 2-1 team is Iowa State, not Texas. The Cyclones are a 44-41 overtime loss to Iowa on Sep 9 away from a 3-0 start, opening the season with a 42-24 home victory over Northern Iowa and winning at Akron 41-14 on Sept. 16. The Longhorns began the 2017 season ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but opened it with a 51-41 home loss to Maryland, before following with a 56-0 home victory over woeful San Jose State. Texas' best performance of the season came in a hard-fought OT loss at USC (currently ranked 5th). Texas defeated Iowa State 27-6 last season in Austin and leads the all-time series 12-2, including going 5-1 in Ames Texas: Tom Herman was Iowa State's offensive coordinator from 2009-11 and helped guide the Cyclones to a pair of bowl games. He left there to be Urban Meyer's OC at Ohio State and then made a big 'splash' as Houston's head coach in 2015 and 2016, landing him the Texas job. Things have have not gone smoothly so far. It hasn't helped that sophomore QB Shane Buechele, who passed for 375 yards and two TDs and ran for another TD against Maryland, has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. However, he is expected to return here, although All-American left tackle Connor Williams (sprained MCL and PCL) is not around to block for him on an already thin OL. Sure, Texas ran for 406 yards against San Jose State but the Longhorns ran for only 98 yards (31 carries) against Maryland and had just 68 yards rushing on 35 attempts versus USC! The defense was awful vs. Maryland (allowed 51 points on 482 yards) but redeemed itself vs. USC. Which one shows up here? Iowa State: Junior QB Jacob Park is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 935 yards with eight TDs and just two INTs. Iowa State ranks ranks 14th in the NCAA in passing (311.7 YPG) and Park now owns four 300-yard passing games in his six career starts. He has a terrific target in senior WR Allen Lazard, a preseason All-American who has 19 receptions for 178 yards and three TDs and is the active NCAA career leader in consecutive games with a reception (38). The running game averages 152.0 YPG, just 82nd in the nation. The defense is at best, mediocre, allowing 27.3 PPG (78th) on 402.0 YPG (80th). The pick: Iowa State has an offense which can produce, as noted by 'ringing up' 38 points in regulation against an Iowa team, which almost upset Penn State last Saturday, holding the Nittany Lions to 21 points! Then again, the Nittany Lions did 'run all over' the Hawkeyes, gaining 579 yards. It's true that Iowa State is 7-1 ATS its last eight home games but with Buechele returning at QB, the Texas offense should be up to the task. Texas fans finally got a glimpse of a better future when Tom Herman almost pulled an upset at USC with backup QB Ehlinger. Here, they get to see "the Full Monty!" Make Texas a 10* play. |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: University of Phoenix Stadium will be the site of Week 3's Monday Night Football game on ESPN, as the 1-1 Cowboys travel to meet the 1-1 Cardinals. Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott has been mired in controversy as he awaits word on the stay of his six-game suspension stemming from domestic-abuse allegations, plus his effort (or lack thereof) was questioned inside his own locker room after the team's humbling 42-17 loss last Sunday in Denver. As for Arizona, the Cards escaped with a three-point OT win at Indy last Sunday and will play a game in their own stadium for the first time since August 19(preseason Week 2). These teams opened the 2017 preseason schedule in Canton, with the Cowboys winning 20-18. Dallas: Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett wasn't pleased with Elliott's hustle or competitiveness when the RB showed zero-to-little interest in turning into a defensive player following two Dak Prescott interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD and one during which Elliott turned away from the play with his hand on his hips. Elliott had just rushing nine attempts against Denver (eight yards!) and that played a significant role in Dak Prescott attempting a career-high 50 passes last week. Only Aaron Rodgers (92) has more pass attempts after Week 2 than Prescott, who has 89. The Cowboys are averaging 245.5 YPG through the air and just 84.5 YPG rushing. That's a far cry from the excellent balance the team had in 2016, going 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS (226.9 YPG passing and 149.8 YPG rushing, which ranked second in the NFL). Arizona: The Cards are also worried about their running game. The Cardinals lost star RB David Johnson to a left wrist injury in Week 1, then Kerwynn Williams was the starter against the Colts last week. However, after averaging just 64.0 YPG rushing in the first two weeks (to rank 30th of 32 teams), it appears Bruce Arians will turn to veteran Chris Johnson against the Cowboys. Carson Palmer was 19-of-36 passing with 332 yards, one TD and one INT last week, after throwing three INTs with a 53.1 QB rating in the loss at Detroit. The pick: The Cowboys are dealing with some injuries but it was their pride and ego that were wounded the most during the rout at the hands of the Broncos. However, Dallas looked pretty darn good against the Giants and I'm not about to 'cry Uncle,' just yet. That's especially true here against the Cards, who look like a shell of the team that went all the way to the NFC championship game just two seasons ago (2015). The Cards are very fortunate to be 1-1 and I'm not convinced they are any better than the 7-8-1 team of 2016. Arizona heads into this game just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games, including the postseason. Make Dallas a 10* play.
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks and the Tennessee Titans square off in Week 3 NFL action from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Both teams are 1-1 and the loser will not be a "happy camper." The Seahawks' offense has been "missing in action" after two weeks, averaging 10.5 PPG to rank 29th of 32 teams on 268.5 YPG (27th). Tennessee appeared to find its offense in the second half of last week's 37-16 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars but now will be severely tested by on of the NFL's best defenses these last five-plus years in Seattle. Seattle: The Seahawks were held without a TD in Week 1 at Green Bay and then were able to generate just 13 points (one TD) against a San Francisco defense which just allowed 41 point to the Rams on Thursday night. Russell Wilson passed for 198 yards and a TD on 23 of 39 passing, against the 49ers and rookie RB Chris Carson led Seattle’s ground game with 93 yards on 20 carries. As it has for some time now, Seattle's defense is off to a typically strong start, allowing 13.0 PPG (5th) on 309.0 YPG (13th). Tennessee: The Titans lost 26-16 at home to the Raiders in Week 1 but I think most are now aware that the Raiders are a quality team. The Titans found their offense in the second half of last week's win at Jacksonville, scoring 31 points. QB Mariota finished with 215 yards (one TD / one INT). RB Derrick Henry led with 92 yards rushing (on just 14 carries) with one TD. The Titans defense recorded two sacks, two interceptions and forced two fumbles, while holding the Jags to just 310 yards of total offense. The pick: I like the Titans quite a bit but Tennessee is 7-22-2 ATS in its last 31 home games (5-9-1 as a home favorite since 2013). The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and Seattle is11-5-3 as a road underdog since 2011, including 2-0 in 2016. Make Seattle a 10* play. |