Last night, in College Basketball, I said “something had to give” in the California-Oregon State matchup. My call on that one ended up being right. Now we turn to a similar situation in the NBA with the Nets taking on the Wizards.

Brooklyn has lost its last nine games. That seems inconceivable, but Kevin Durant hasn’t played in any of them while James Harden and Kyrie Irving have also both missed time for their own reasons. Of the three, only Irving is set to play tonight’s game. (Harden could be traded?)

Fortunately, for the Nets, tonight’s game is against a Washington team that has lost eight of its last nine games and is 2-14 ATS in its last 16. The Wizards just learned that leading scorer Bradley Beal is done for the season. I’d say the team’s season is now done as well.

Who will win tonight? I say Brooklyn. They are 17-11 on the road and the better team, even without Durant and Harden. Thus, I will gladly take the points. 

The Wizards’ starting lineup is Aaron Holiday, Spencer Dinwiddie, Thomas Bryant, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma. The only teams in the East with worse YTD point differentials are Orlando and Detroit. 

Towson may be 1.5 games behind UNC Wilmington, but I think they’re the best team in the CAA. Tonight, the Tigers are massive favorites over William & Mary, deservedly so. W&M is a bottom tier team in the Colonial that has won just two times since the New Year. One of four programs to be eligible for every NCAA Tournament and never make one, W&M is going to see that dubious streak extended this year. 

As for the question of whether or not Towson can cover this large spread, I believe that they can. That may sound strange as the Tigers are coming off an embarrassing loss, 58-53 to Northeastern, who is the last place team in the conference. But if you don’t think that will have the Tigers motivated, then guess again.

The loss to Northeastern, who I believe is better than W&M, saw Towson make just 1 of 15 three-point attempts. Obviously, that is what cost them the game. The loss also occurred out on the road. At home, the Tigers are 8-2 this year, the only losses coming to UNCW and a very good San Francisco team. 

William & Mary has lost its last two games by a combined 45 points. This is not just the worst team in the CAA, but one of the bottom 20 teams in the entire country, in my estimation. The Tribe are 347th in offensive efficiency and 304th in defensive efficiency. This has blowout written all over it. 

It remains to be seen how many teams from the Pac 12 are going to make the Big Dance. But barring a stunning run in the Conference Tournament, we know that neither of these teams will be in the field of 68. 

Oregon State was an Elite 8 team last March, which was a stunning run for a team seeded 12th and not favored in any of its final eight games. This season has been much more rough for the Beavers. They are 3-17, including 1-9 in the Pac 12 where they are in last place.

So this is a great spot to take Cal, in my view, even though the Bears aren’t having a good season themselves. But they are better than Oregon State. Back in December, they defeated the Beavers 73-61 as a 2.5-point favorite in Berkeley. 

Cal comes into the rematch on a 10-game losing streak while OSU has lost seven in a row. Something has to give. 

Cal was at least competitive in a loss to Washington State on Saturday. Oregon State’s last three losses have all been by at least 22 points and they have multiple players listed as questionable for tonight. Back the road team.

Cleveland has been THE biggest surprise this year. At the start of the season, most had them ranked near the bottom of the league. But here we are, almost at the All-Star Break, and the Cavs have a 33-21 SU record. 

If you were betting on the Cavs in the early portion of the season, then congrats. From November 1st through December 18th, they went an incredible 19-3-2 against the spread. 

Oddsmakers started to catch up to what was going on in Cleveland, but now the team is even stronger. Trading for Caris LeVert and the impending return of Darius Garland make this a true force to be reckoned with in the Eastern Conference.

The Cavs have won two in a row after beating LeVert’s old team (Indiana) on Sunday. They had to rally from a 20-point deficit, but still ended up winning by 13. As home favorites this year, the Cavs are not only 13-2 straight up, but winning by an average of 12.7 points per game. That’s impressive.

San Antonio hasn’t played since Friday when they defeated Houston 131-106. This is the start of the annual “Rodeo Road Trip” as they won’t be at home again until March 3rd. The biggest issue for the Spurs tonight is that it’s been more than a month since they won back to back games. I’ll lay the short number.

It wasn’t that long ago that I took UMBC as an underdog, and they came through, pulling the outright win. In fact, it was exactly one week ago. They were +2.5 at Albany and won 59-53.

The Retrievers then returned home on Saturday and beat New Hampshire 88-77, obviously a much more high scoring affair. While Vermont is basically assured of winning the regular season crown in the America East, UMBC now has a great shot at finishing second after winning its last five games.

When I took them last Tuesday, I obviously expected a straight up win. Here, UMBC is favored, but this time they are playing at home and against a Hartford team that should offer little resistance. The Hawks have only won five games all year.

It’s been three straight losses to open February for Hartford as they continue to sink to the bottom of the conference standings. They just played Monday, losing 85-75 to UMass-Lowell. In my view, the quick turnaround puts them at a severe disadvantage. It’s the second road game in three nights.

The Retrievers have captured 8 of the last 10 meetings against the spread. Lay the points.

Portland has been a disappointment. But covering a small number, at home, against the league’s worst team sounds doable? Orlando, who is 12-43 on the year, has dropped two in a row by a combined 53 points after previously winning four of six.

That 4-2 stretch was the Magic’s best run of the season. The last two games have brought a return to form as they lost by 20 to Memphis and 33 to Boston. Those were both home games. The road has seen them go 7-23 thus far. You look at this spread and if one were inclined to back the underdog, then it’s an admission that you think they have a good chance of winning the game. I would almost never expect Orlando to win.

Now Portland has lost five in a row and seven of eight. So this matchup is just what the doctor ordered as far as they are concerned. They’ve beaten the Magic 10 straight times, including 98-88 in Orlando on January 17th.

Before getting blitzed by Milwaukee on Saturday, the Blazers had held three straight opponents under 100 points. They’ve already done that once to Orlando. I think they can do it again as the Magic come in as the league’s third lowest scoring team. Lay the points.

Pacific is having a dreadful season as the Tigers are 4-16 ATS, the worst such record in the country. It’s about to get worse as they’ll play three times in the next five days. The next two games are against nationally ranked teams, USC and Gonzaga.

Running into USC now is a bad deal for Pacific. The Trojans were lucky not to go 0-2 last week. They had to come from behind to beat Arizona State, then were outclassed by Arizona.

So USC dropped two spots, down to #21 in the latest rankings. But I’m expecting a focused effort here as they step out of conference for what should be a very easy game. This is a team that plays in the Pac 12. They’ll welcome an opportunity to face one of the weakest West Coast Conference teams, at home no less. This was a hastily scheduled game, replacing Oklahoma State on the schedule. The Trojans were supposed to take on the Cowboys back on Dec 21, but COVID had other ideas. Going from facing OK State to Pacific is a big break for the Trojans.

The Trojans’ height will be too much for Pacific. In addition, there’s no way they won’t shoot better here than they did vs. Arizona where they were 34.3% from the field. Drew Peterson was 1 of 13. 

Pacific is 0-9 on the road - straight up and against the spread. Lay the points.

Playing for a second straight day, Chicago should be no match for a Phoenix team that’s won 12 of its last 13 games. While this is a matchup of first place teams in the respective conferences, one team is clearly better than the other. 

The Bulls lost Sunday, 119-108 to Philadelphia. They were also home dogs in that one. There is a long list of injured players right now as Zach LaVine and Coby White joined Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso on the bench yesterday. 

Defensively, Chicago has issues. They’ve given up at least 115 points in six straight games. Yesterday, they found themselves down 17 in the fourth quarter before a late rally made things a little interesting.

Look for the Suns to have no mercy on the Bulls tonight. The Western Conference leaders held Washington to 80 points in an easy win on Saturday. They led by 34 going into the fourth quarter.

DeMar DeRozan really tried yesterday for the Bulls, scoring 45 points in 41 minutes. There’s no way he’s going to be able to match that performance here though. Lay the points.

Look for Montana State to roll here. The Bobcats are facing an Idaho State team that is just plain lousy. But what makes this play particularly appetizing is that Idaho State is coming off an upset win. The Bengals stunned Montana, 86-63 as 9.5-point dogs, over the weekend.

Before that, Idaho State had lost five in a row with four of the losses coming by double digits. Montana State is trending in a much different direction. They are on an eight game win streak entering Monday and trail Weber State, who they just beat, by only two in the win column. 

Montana State beat Idaho State by 20 the first time they met. They held the Bengals to 25.5% shooting and 3 of 23 from three-point range. In the second half, they outscored them 37-21. 

Montana State didn’t just beat Weber State over the weekend. They did so by 21 points, on the road. That’s a very impressive performance against the Big Sky leaders. The Bobcats are averaging 78.2 points per game on the road and have covered both times they’ve been a favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.

Idaho State is only averaging 62.9 points per game this season. They have a 4-16 straight up record. My view is that they should be faded off what was easily their best performance in conference play. Lay the points here.

For reasons out of the players’ control, Stony Brook finds itself in a tough position. Because the school is moving to the Colonial Athletic Association next year, the America East ruled them ineligible for the conference tournament. That means the Seawolves will need to receive an at-large bid to make the NCAA tournament, which seems unlikely. 

Has this had an effect on the court? Well, Stony Brook has dropped two in a row and three of its last four. This skid has dropped the Seawolves closer to the middle of the pack in the America East standings. But I feel, because of the recent losses, we’re able to get a great number here. 

New Hampshire is not a team you should be afraid to bet against. Saturday, the Wildcats gave up 88 points in a loss at UMBC. Going back to the start of January, they’ve been alternating wins and losses. While that pattern would seem to indicate a win tonight, take note of the fact New Hampshire is 0-4 ATS this season when playing with just one day of rest between games.

Stony Brook returns home after a bad loss at NJIT, who had previously dropped seven in a row. That game was decided on a late three. The Seawolves have also dropped two straight home games, but one was to Vermont, who is 10-0 in the conference. I sense there will be a tremendous motivation to win here after the America East’s ruling and because the Seawolves don’t want to lose another home game.

New Hampshire is 1-8 on the road this year and has not won a single time as an underdog (0-6). Lay the points.

Vermont, Houston, Longwood, Wagner, Murray State, Auburn, South Dakota State, Gonzaga … and Iona. Those are the only teams in College Basketball yet to lose a conference game.

I’ll be playing against Iona, the top team in the MAAC, today. The Gaels have won their first 11 conference games by an average of 11.5 points. But they face a tricky spot here, visiting Niagara. 

Niagara is middle of the pack in the conference, but is coming off two straight wins. The Purple Eagles won at Monmouth, then returned home to defeat Manhattan. Their record over the L6 games is 3-3 straight up, but the three losses were all by six points or less.

Now the first meeting with Iona didn’t go well. Niagara lost that one by 23 points, as a 10-point underdog. But that was in Iona’s gym. All three times that the Gaels lost this season, the game was played away from home.

Furthermore, Iona has failed to cover in its last two games. Both were eight-point wins. Niagara is on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a home dog. Take the points.

Providence might be the 15th ranked team in the country right now, but oddsmakers do not think very much of the Friars and neither do I. They are first in the Big East with a 9-1 conference record and have won six straight. But, according to most power ranking systems, Providence would be an underdog to at least five BE teams, on a neutral floor.

Here, the Friars are favored, on the road, so I think it’s an opportune time to fade. Georgetown has been struggling, but did cover the first meeting with Providence, as 10-point underdogs, losing only 83-75. That was even with the Hoyas shooting much worse, 40% for the game compared to 52.9% for the Friars.

Of Providence’s nine Big East wins this year, seven have been by eight points or less. Only one has been by more than 10. The Friars have played with fire all year and have one of the better records in the country in close games. They aren’t the kind of team you want to lay points with regularly. 

Georgetown’s leading scorer and rebounder, Aminu Mohammed, was 1 for 13 from the field in the last game and finished with a career-low four points. He will play better Sunday.

I know it’s been a tough year for Patrick Ewing’s Hoyas. They’ve lost 10 in a row. But expect them to cover here. Take the points.

Alabama continues its brutal schedule with a visit from Kentucky. This will be the third consecutive top five opponent for the Crimson Tide.

Last Saturday, they hosted Baylor, who was ranked #4 at the time. On Tuesday, they lost to #1 Auburn.

Including the win over Baylor last Saturday, the Tide have beaten three of last year’s Final Four. Earlier in the season, they defeated Houston and Gonzaga - in consecutive games.

Yes, Bama is favored now. That tells you what kind of team this is. Kentucky is now #4, having won seven of eight including at Kansas last Saturday. But all four Wildcats’ losses have come outside of Lexington. They are just 3-3 in true road games.

Alabama has lost only one game in Tuscaloosa and that was by four to Auburn. Looking at the last month’s ATS results, it’s been a disappointing run for the Tide. But they are my pick here. Watch out for their three-point shooting to improve in this game.

Things have suddenly gone a bit sideways for Wisconsin, who is 0-4 ATS its last four and lost twice straight up. Both losses did come to ranked teams, Michigan State and Illinois, but they were also by double digits. That’s a troubling sign for the Badgers.

The team from Madison had won seven in a row prior to losing to Michigan State on January 21st. But five of the wins were by six points or less. This isn’t a team that wins big very often. They have three double digits wins all season, all of them coming December 4th or earlier (two were in November). 

So I’ll gladly take the points with Penn State tonight. The Nittany Lions are off a double overtime win over Iowa, but that was on Monday, so they’ve had plenty of time to recover. Wisconsin’s game in Illinois, which they lost, was on Wednesday. It’s a quicker turnaround for the favorite and they could be looking ahead to getting revenge against Michigan State on Tuesday. 

Penn State is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season. They covered the number at Purdue and also upset Indiana. 

In 12 of their 13 games, Wisconsin has either lost or won by nine points or less. Take the points. 

Furman has been rolling, but expect them to stumble a bit Saturday afternoon against UNC Greensboro. 

Now leading the Southern Conference, the Paladins have lost just one time since January 1st. That was by two points at Chattanooga, who is in second place. Furman is on an eight-game ATS win streak as well. During that win streak, six of their seven SU wins have come by 15 points or more.

That’s really impressive, but probably not sustainable. Three days ago against The Citadel, they scored 102 points, including a season-high 63 in the first half. There’s only one way to go following a performance like that. 

When Furman faced UNC Greensboro earlier this year, it was a tight, low-scoring contest. The Paladins escaped with a 58-54 win. That was their lowest scoring game of the year, probably owed to the fact that Greensboro plays at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country.

Playing slow should allow the underdog Spartans to keep this one close. After dropping five of their last seven, this is a team desperate for a win. Take the points.

The Mountain West has six teams ranked in the KenPom top 52 and these are two of them. Colorado State, despite starting the year with 11 consecutive victories, is the lowest rated of the six. They have lost two in a row to fall to 16-3 on the year. Their first loss was an ugly one, 79-49 at San Diego State. That’s who they’ll face again tonight.

The Aztecs are just 4-2 in conference play and 12-5 overall, but they have a top five defense in adjusted efficiency and are second highest among Mt West teams in the KenPom ratings. Not only did they wallop CSU in the first meeting, they’ve won seven of nine. 

I mentioned that SDSU has a top five defense. They are actually #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and give up just 56.8 points/game. They say that “defense travels” and so you should count on the Aztecs not allowing many points here. Again, they held Colorado State to just 49 points in the first meeting.

In the last nine games, only Utah State has been able to score more than 60 against San Diego State. Meanwhile, Colorado State has just given up 88 points to UNLV and 84 points to Wyoming in its last two games.

Given how easily San Diego State won the first meeting, I’ve got to take them as a slight dog in the rematch. They are the better team and have swept the season series from CSU 12 of the past 22 seasons. They’ve even won 11 of the last 15 here at Moby Arena. Take the points.

After losing a couple of close ones to top teams (Phoenix, Golden State), the Spurs never had a chance last night, losing to the Heat by the score of 112-95. Because of inclement weather, the start time for the game was moved up 90 minutes. Missing five players, including two starters, San Antonio was held to a season-worst 38 percent from the field.

One of the missing players was leading scorer Dejounte Murray. He’s listed as questionable for tonight. The team could get a boost from the season debut of Zach Collins. Regardless, I think Gregg Popovich will have enough pieces to guide his team to victory over the last place Rockets.

This is a critical game for San Antonio. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” is set to begin next week. They are 15 games below .500 entering Friday. A win here would give them some much needed momentum going into the upcoming eight-game trip, which goes through the All-Star Break and into March.

When these teams met last month, the Spurs scored 82 points in the paint en route to a 134-104 victory. 

Houston picked up a rare win on Wednesday, ending an 11-game home losing streak by upsetting Cleveland 115-104. It was just their fifth win since 12/19. Only once during that time have they won two straight games. So the decision to lay the short number in this one seems prudent.

Yale had a bit of a rocky road in non-conference play, finishing up just 6-8 straight up and 4-9 against the spread (one game had no line). But since Ivy League play has commenced, it’s been a return to form with a 4-1 mark SU and 3-2 ATS. 

Tonight, the Bulldogs are at home and facing Dartmouth, who is one of the weaker Ivy League teams. The Big Green are just 5-12 this year, straight up, and have a losing record in conference play. They did win their last game, however, beating Columbia 76-63 as 5.5 point road favorites. That Dartmouth was even favored on the road should tell you how bad Columbia must be.

My records only go back to 2016, but Yale has beaten Dartmouth at least 10 straight times, covering the spread in each of the last seven. They’ve been favored every time. So it’s been a one-sided rivalry. 

Yale just got a big win last Saturday, beating Princeton by six as three-point underdogs. The Bulldogs are now just a half game out of first place. They can’t afford to slip up here. Thus expect a focused effort.

The Bulldogs are averaging 81.5 points/game at home this year while Dartmouth averages only 66.1 points/game on the road. Before beating Columbia, the Big Green had dropped seven straight on the road. Lay the points here.

Less than one month ago, USC was one of the last few remaining unbeaten teams in College Basketball. Fast forward to the present and the Trojans are just 5-3 the last eight games. But they did beat Cal 79-72 last Saturday, ensuring they’d remain in the Top 25. Southern Cal comes into tonight’s game ranked #19 in the country.

Stanford has handed the Trojans two of its three losses. Against everyone else, USC is 18-1 this year. They beat Arizona State by 22, 78-56, just over a week ago. Even with this game being in Tempe, I don’t think there’s much reason to expect things will go any different. 

The Trojans played a “clean” game against Cal, committing only four turnovers. But it was one of their weaker defensive efforts, just the second time all season that an opponent shot 50% or better. Expect things to be ratcheted up at that end tonight.

Arizona State is one of the Pac 12’s weakest teams. They’ve lost three in a row and six of their last seven. The Sun Devils only win since December 14th was by two points over last place Utah.

USC has covered five straight times against ASU and tonight should be no different. I’ve got no problem laying single digits on the road with the vastly superior team. The Sun Devils have failed to even score 60 in four of their last six games.

The Lakers look to make it back to back wins here as they face the Clippers Thursday night on TNT. This isn’t your “usual” second night of a back to back for the Purple & Gold. While listed as “the road team,” this is the same building they won in last night, defeating Portland 99-94. 

The Lakers did have to rally to get the win last night. They outscored Portland 27-19 in the fourth quarter. They also got 30 points from Anthony Davis, 19 of those coming in the final stanza.

Both LA teams are under .500 and just trying to catch up to the top six in the West. I think it’s unlikely either will do so, and thus they’ll be relegated to the play-in round come April. The Lakers are playing without LeBron James right now, but the Clippers don’t have either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard.

The Clippers are coming off a 4-4 road trip that took them all over the country. They were a bit lucky to finish the trip at .500 as there were multiple huge comebacks. They trailed the Sixers by 24, Wizards by 35 and Magic by 14. Those were all games that they somehow WON. 

Not tonight though. Even with two days rest, I expect the Clippers to struggle coming off the long road trip. They are actually 0-5 ATS this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. The Lakers are 8-2 ATS after a game where they failed to score 100 points.

You may not be all that familiar with the Summit League, but there’s one team (South Dakota State) well out in front with a perfect 11-0 conference record. Oral Roberts (9-2) is second and if they want to keep pace, they’ll need to take care of Western Illinois (4-6) tonight. I think they will.

Oral Roberts has won eight of its past nine games. The lone loss was their home game and they fell by just a single point, 72-71 to North Dakota State. The Eagles have since gone out on the road and defeated both Omaha and Denver, racking up a lot of points in the process. They scored 100 and 89 in those two wins.

ORU averages 87.7 points per game at home, so you should again expect lots of points from them tonight. Western Illinois, who just gave up 83 in their last game, a loss to UMKC, allows 78.1 points per game on the road.

Western Illinois has dropped 7 of its last 10 overall. They let UMKC shoot 56% on Monday and dropped to 3-7 ATS in conference play. The Leathernecks have lost the last five meetings with Oral Roberts.

Led by Max Abmas, ORU is one of the five highest scoring teams in all of College Basketball. They’ll score enough to cover the spread tonight. 

Indiana is having a really disappointing season thus far, but should certainly be able to take advantage of Orlando playing the second night of a back to back. The Magic have the worst record in the NBA, 11-41, and lost 126-115 in Chicago last night.

Despite a hot start where they shot over 60% in the first quarter, Orlando just couldn’t keep pace in the Windy City. They rallied to tie the game up in the last four minutes, only to run out of gas. I think it’s going to be tough for them to dust themselves off after another loss. The Magic have won just one time in ten tries when playing without rest this season. They are also 8-15 ATS off a double digit loss. 

The Pacers beat the Clippers Monday, 122-116. They are now 4-4 over their last eight games, including a win over Golden State, as they try to stay in playoff contention. Don’t judge the Pacers by their 19-33 record as they have played better than you’d think. What has really hurt them is a league-high 10 losses by three points or fewer.

Even though they’re short-handed right now, the Pacers know this is a game they must win. Lay the points as Orlando is rarely a good bet to keep a game close, let alone win.

A rare move to the America East Conference for this play where I will take UMBC, the only team to ever make the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 32  as a 16-seed, to cover the spread.  

Right now though, the Retrievers aren’t really thinking about the NCAA Tournament. They find themselves at just 4-4 in conference play and 9-10 overall. Their opponent on Wednesday is Albany, who has a similar record (5-4 in conference play, 9-12 overall). 

Both teams have played better lately. UMBC has won three in a row. Albany, though off a loss to conference leader Vermont, is 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.

Albany hasn’t been all that strong at home this year (3-4 SU) and are not a great offensive team, averaging just 62.0 PPG. After being blitzed by Vermont (allowed 56.9% shooting), the Great Danes probably aren’t in a great position to be favored tonight. They’ve been favorites in only four games prior to this one.

But most important of all is that this is a revenge game for UMBC, who lost to Albany 66-54 as a 4.5-point home favorite, two weeks ago. That was a bad shooting night for the Retrievers, who made only 17 field goals the entire game. In the three games since, they have scored 88, 73 and 70 points. Expect a much better offensive showing tonight and take the points.

Drake, who is coming off a big upset of Loyola Chicago, now turns its attention to a much lesser Missouri Valley foe - Indiana State. The Bulldogs win on Saturday squared them up with Loyola for the MVC lead. Indiana State is just 2-6 in conference play and that’s why they are a home dog here. 

Sunday saw ISU lose by 15 at Bradley. It was the Sycamores’ fifth loss in six games and saw season-lows in field goal percentage (34.0) and three-pointers made (five). They were dominated on the inside, gave up too many second chance points and turned the ball over 15 times. All in all, a poor effort for Larry Bird’s alma mater.

Drake has not been especially good at covering the spread this season (5-14 ATS), but they are winning games. They’ve won 13 of 16. Now three of the wins have been in overtime and three wins last month were by a single point. But taking down Loyola Chicago, who was a Top 25 team not too long ago, was rather impressive.

The Bulldogs didn’t even shoot all that well in the 77-68 upset. But they scored 45 points in the second half. Five of the last six games, they’ve topped 70. Indiana State, meanwhile, has scored 56 or less in three of its last five games. This should be an easy win for the favorite.

Texas vs. Texas Tech is a Top 25 matchup on Tuesday’s docket. Both are 16-5. Texas Tech is ranked higher and favored, due to being at home. But the underdog is the play here.

No doubt Texas Tech has been covering games lately. They are 8-1 against the spread the last nine games. They’ve lost twice straight up, but one of those was a multi-OT game at Kansas. The Red Raiders had already beaten Kansas once this year and they also hold a win over Baylor.

But Texas leads the country in scoring defense at 54.5 points per game allowed. They are a tough team to beat, let alone beat by any kind of substantial margin. In what promises to be another low-scoring affair in the Big 12, taking the points just seems like a sound decision.

Longhorns coach Chris Beard left Texas Tech after last season. He knows the opponent well.

Texas Tech won’t shoot 61% again like they did vs. Mississippi State over the weekend. Texas’ defense keeps this one close and I can see an upset happening.

Minnesota has an excellent shot at ending Denver’s five-game win streak, regardless if Nikola Jokic plays or not.

The Nuggets will be playing their fifth straight game on the road this evening. Two days ago, they shot over 60% from the field and laid waste to Milwaukee, winning by 36. Jokic dominated down low against a Bucks team that really had no post presence. If Jokic (questionable) even plays tonight, he will be going up against Karl-Anthony Towns. 

The Timberwolves are likewise coming off an impressive win. They beat Utah by 20 on Sunday. It was the fourth time in the last six games that the T’wolves topped 120 points.

There is a huge difference in what Minnesota allows at home and on the road. They allow almost 11 points per game less here in the Twin Cities.

The first two meetings of the year have seen Denver win here and Minnesota win in the Mile High City. Now it’s time for the home team to win one. Lay the points.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay with a Virginia team that doesn’t score all that much. But the Hoos have proven to be resilient off a loss and play great defense. Boston College is also not good on the road.

Virginia is one of 13 teams in the country that is allowing fewer than 60 points per game. Playing at home tonight, you should bank on them allowing less than 60 points.

Saturday saw the Cavaliers lose 69-65 at Notre Dame. It was a bad shooting night from three with them making just 3 of 14 from behind the arc. Fortunately, Virginia has a 4-0 ATS record so far off a conference loss. They shoot a respectable 34.4% from three at home.

Boston College, who is coming off a rare win, is just 1-8 away from home this year. That one win was by two over Clemson. The Eagles are averaging less than 60 points/game on the road.

Coming off an ACC win, BC is 0-3 ATS. So lay the points in this one. 

Everybody looks up to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but there’s actually a pretty strong top four in the league this season with BYU, St. Mary’s and San Francisco all looking like they’re NCAA Tournament worthy. But we’re not talking about any of those teams today. We’ve got a matchup of teams in the bottom half of the WCC, Pacific and Santa Clara.

I think Santa Clara has a substantial edge on Monday. The Broncos are coming off a series of close games, an overtime win against San Diego, a win at the buzzer over BYU and an overtime loss to San Francisco. They are just 3-3 SU in conference play, but 9-3 at home and far more respectable than tonight’s opponent.

Pacific is 1-4 SU in conference play and 0-7 on the road. The Tigers just recorded their first WCC win of the campaign on Saturday, shocking BYU 76-73 as a 12-point underdog. Before that, they were on a seven-game losing streak and almost every loss was by double digits.

Not only have the Tigers yet to win a true road game this year, they are also 0-7 ATS in those games. Their overall ATS mark this year is 3-14, very poor and among the worst in the country. 

With Santa Clara averaging just over 80 points per game at home, I just don’t see how Pacific is going to be able to stay within the number here. Lay the points.

The odds have reached a point where Cincinnati seems like a good option. It is a concern that the Chiefs can’t hold an opposing offense, in particular a passing offense, at bay. Burrow and Mahomes have been equally dynamic of late. Burrow will not face the kind of pressure he has endured in either of the last two weeks. The Chiefs have one of the worst defenses in terms of sacks in the league. The Bengals have already beaten the Chiefs in a meaningful game within the last 4 weeks, with great success in the air. A blowout by the Chiefs is highly unlikely. If this game goes as expected, it will likely be decided on one scoring drive or in overtime. I can see the Chiefs up to one touchdown, but after that, I am banking on the Bengals.

Coming off a close call against Missouri, I expect Auburn to deliver a knockout blow to Oklahoma on Saturday. This time, the Tigers, who are ranked #1 for the first time in program history, are at home. The Tigers have won their ten home games this year by an average of 18.8 points.

Oklahoma just ended a four-game losing streak by winning at West Virginia. The Sooners have been competitive at times this year, but this will be their third game against a top five opponent in the last 11 days. It’s a really horrid spot for them.

Against Missouri, Auburn simply did not shoot the ball well. They made only 30 percent from the field and scored only 55 points. That was after scoring 80 or more in six straight games. Look for the Tigers to get back on track offensively this afternoon. 

OU is shooting less than 30 percent from three, on the road, this season. That’s not going to cut it here. 

The Sooners have won nine straight games against SEC competition. That streak ends here. The Tigers pounce. Lay the number.

Lehigh has covered three straight games, but all of those were as underdogs. Tonight marks just the second time in conference action that they’re favored and once again the opponent is Holy Cross. The Mountain Hawks did win and cover that first matchup, 77-69 laying 6.5 points, back on January 10th. But that was at home and with HC having a poor shooting night.

The line for this game, at Holy Cross, is almost the same as it was for the game three weeks ago. That seems strange. Lehigh is just 2-12 ATS its last 14 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in that role this season. Tonight is the first time in 2021-22 that they have been giving points on the road. 

Holy Cross’ record is a pretty woeful 3-15, but this is a game the Crusaders can win. Even though they missed 14 of the 18 three-point attempts they took, the first meeting with Lehigh was decided by only eight points. HC shoots much better from behind the arc when they are at home (38%).

All of the Crusaders wins this year have come at home. Lehigh is 9-29 in its last 38 road games, 3-8 this season. Take the points.

Off a loss, last Friday, you may think that the smart money is on #11 Wisconsin to bounce back here. But the Badgers are ranked too high and after previously winning seven in a row, they’re due to start giving some back. 

Wisconsin had also covered five in a row before running into Michigan State last week. They lost 86-74 last Friday, playing without third leading scorer Wahl. The team’s leading scorer, Davis, missed 10 of 13 shots in the first half as the Badgers fell behind by 16. 

There have been four games this season where Wisconsin has rallied from a double digit deficit to win. That seems a bit fortuitous. 

Now it’s not been a good season in Lincoln as Nebraska has lost six straight and 11 of the last 12. This game, which was originally going to take place on Tuesday, had to be moved back as the Cornhuskers were dealing with COVID. But trust me when I say there’s nothing they’d like more here than to play “spoiler.”

When Wisconsin won seven in a row, five of those wins were by six points or less. They don’t dominate and won’t be able to win by a large margin here tonight.

So we’re going with VCU here, based on how the line is moving and the fact I don’t believe Davidson should be ranked. Sure, the Wildcats are among the hottest teams in the country right now with 15 straight wins. But the last three have been by a total of eight points.

I view Davidson’s #25 ranking as a bit of a “ok we acknowledge what you’re doing” from the oddsmakers. But I don’t think anyone REALLY thinks this is a Top 25 team. The Wildcats were expected to be middle of the pack in the Atlantic 10 this year.

One of Davidson’s recent three close victories, all of which were on the road, came at VCU. The Wildcats ended that game on a 10-2 run. That was one of just two losses for VCU since the beginning of  December.

The Rams are a top three team (in the country!) in adjusted defensive efficiency. So I believe they can limit Davidson from three-point range. The Wildcats have been making a living behind the arc, making 41% of their attempts, second best in the country.

VCU is coming off a 70-54 win over St. Joe’s and looking for revenge. Davidson, who was down 47-40 to lowly Fordham in the second half on Saturday, is coming off three straight road games that went down to the wire and may have little left in the tank. Take the points here. 

Iowa State continues to get little respect as they are underdogs for their visit to Stillwater on Wednesday night. The lack of respect stems from the fact the Cyclones have dropped five of their last seven games, following a 12-0 start. They have only two conference victories since the start of last year, both coming this season. But I will take them plus the points in this spot, noting Oklahoma State’s own slump and inability to score points.

Over their last 10 games, OSU is just 4-6 and averaging 64.3 points while shooting 39.7%. That’s not good. On Saturday, the Cowboys went down at the hands of Texas, 56-51 as 10-point road underdogs.

Tonight will mark just the second time in the last nine games that the Pokes have been favored. They did win the other time, but just by one point (against TCU) and thus did not cover the spread. OSU only has four double digit victories all year and the last one was right before Thanksgiving.

Iowa State continues to be solid, defensively. They allow just 59.9 points per game as opponents are shooting just 40.8%. 

So with Oklahoma State unlikely to score much tonight, it seems quite logical to grab the points. They have actually failed to cover the spread six straight times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

Charlotte looks to pick up the pieces after losing 125-113 in Toronto last night. Giving up 39 points in the first quarter is what ultimately doomed the Hornets, although another tough night from behind the arc didn’t help either. In their last two games, the Hornets are a wretched 10 of 67 on three-point attempts.

Perhaps taking it to the basket would be a prudent move tonight against Indiana. The Pacers have allowed 130 points in the paint during their last two games, both of which have been losses.

Both of these teams are somewhat relegated to the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference. But there should be no argument as to which is having the better overall season. Charlotte remains four games over .500 while Indiana is languishing, 14 games below the Mendoza Line. 

The Hornets have had the Pacers number this year, winning all three previous meetings. All three were close, but Charlotte has averaged 120 points per game. 

Charlotte is also a top five team in offensive efficiency. They are the second-highest scoring team in the league. Lay the short number on the road. 

These are the two top teams in the Pac 12 and two of the top 10 in the country. Arizona is #3 in the latest poll and got one first place vote. UCLA moved up a couple spots to #8. 

This game was supposed to take place on December 30th, but UCLA was dealing with COVID issues. The delay may have worked in the Bruins’ favor as fan restrictions have now been lifted and they can enjoy a sense of “home court” advantage at Pauley Pavillion.

Arizona’s one loss this season was on the road, to a Top 25 team. They fell 77-73 at Tennessee on December 22nd. The Wildcats have looked impressive since then, posting five straight double digit wins in conference play. But other than Illinois, they haven’t beaten that many quality teams this year.

UCLA beat Villanova back in November and also went to Marquette and won. One of their losses was by just three points, to Oregon, while the other was to #2 Gonzaga. 

The Bruins have beaten Arizona five straight times and are 5-0 ATS as well. Look for them to make it six straight tonight.

Dallas just beat Memphis 104-91 for its 12th win in 14 games. So they are likely feeling good about themselves heading to Golden State. The Mavericks have never lost in the Warriors’ “new building.” They are 3-0 SU/ATS all-time at the Chase Center. Every win has come by at least 20 points.

Golden State, meanwhile, seems to be reeling a bit even though they’ve posted back to back wins. But the two wins were each by just two points and they did not cover the spread in either game. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. 

Poor shooting, especially from Steph Curry, has plagued the Warriors a bit recently. Curry is averaging only 20.1 points while shooting 27.6% from three the L10 games. Over the last 14 games, the team has failed to reach 100 points a total of seven times.

But even though Dallas has been dialed in defensively, I believe that Golden State will break out of its “slump” tonight at home, on TNT. The Warriors are still averaging 111.9 points at home. 

They also remain better than the Mavericks at the defensive end. Golden State is #1 in the league in scoring defense and gives up just 99.3 points per game at home. This is a short number for them and I say lay it.

The Jets have been struggling, losers of 4 straight, however they have faced 4 very strong teams, and lost by a single goal in each case. The Panthers are a different team away from home, and have been on a western swing for 10 days now. This is a great opportunity for the Jets against a road-weary Panthers outfit, who were knocked off by the Kraken just two nights ago. The Jets struggle to put the puck in the net right now (two goals a game for three games running) and likely face a tough act in Bobrovsky tonight. A Winnipeg win is possible but another close loss is a more likely outcome. Take the Jets +1 ½.

In their last 19 visits, Siena is a fascinating 17-2 ATS when playing at Iona. But tonight should go differently in the MAAC. After almost a full month off (COVID cancellations), Siena will be playing its third straight road game on Tuesday. They lost the last one, 75-68 at Manhattan. Iona is clearly the best team in the conference this year, at 16-3 overall and 8-0 vs. other MAAC teams. 

Iona is a big favorite, but that’s not without justification. The Gaels are riding a five-game win streak and their only loss since the beginning of December came by a single point at St. Louis. This is a good team we’re backing today. They are coming off a 15-point win as 8.5 point favorites, on the road, over Quinnipiac Saturday.

Iona hasn’t lost a home game this year, even though they are only shooting 30.4% from three. Their success can be attributed to their FG% defense. Opponents shoot just 39.5% at Iona, including 25.3% from three.

Look for Iona, who averages 78.9 points at home, to shoot better from three tonight. Siena is outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Even worse is that the Saints rank outside the top 300 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Iona ranks in the top 81 nationally at both ends.

This long-standing rivalry between the two upstate New York schools has seen Siena cash more often than not, at least when they’re on the road. But tonight will be different. Lay the points with Iona. 

Playing against a bad team that’s coming off a rare win always seems to be a good idea and that’s what I’m doing here with Idaho. The Vandals won 73-72 on Saturday, beating Sacramento State. It was their first win since before Christmas when they beat a team named “SAGU American Indian College.” 

Idaho needed overtime to get that win Saturday. They gave up 42 points in the second half, which was the most points scored by Sacramento State in any half this season. 

The win was at home. On the road, Idaho is 0-9. They’ve lost 30 of 33 road games the last three years.

Portland State’s only win since Christmas also came against Sacramento State. But that was back on 1/15. Since then, the Vikings have lost three in a row. They know tonight is their best chance at a win in some time.

This will also be PSU’s third straight home game. Next they’ve got Southern Utah, who is one of the better Big Sky teams. The fact the Vikings keep visiting teams to 62 points/game (on 38% shooting) tells me they can win this one rather comfortably, so lay the points.

Miss Valley State is as bad as any College Basketball team in the country. They have just one win this season and it came by two points, in overtime, against a Prairie View A&M squad that also happens to be rated among the nation’s very worst. Since that lone win, the Delta Devils have been blown out by Texas Southern and been rather competitive in three other defeats. Tonight’s game is likely to go poorly for them.

Southern U is coming off a 48-point win on Saturday where they almost scored 100 points (99). They shot 56.5% and held Ark-Pine Bluff to 31.4%. The win was the Jaguars’ seventh in the last nine games. The two losses both came on the road and one was at Dayton.

Southern has only played five games at home this season. They’re 5-0 and winning by almost 30 points/game. I look for a win of a similar margin here tonight. The last two times they faced MVSU, the game was at home and the margins of victory were 33 and 41 points.

On the road, MVSU is getting beat by 28.5 points/game. 

Not only is Southern 12-4 ATS in all of its lined games this season, they are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games. Should be an easy one for them on Monday, so be sure to lay the points.

Bills face the Chiefs on Divisional game day. Let us get to the point, and make this short but sweet. Bills will win, and they will have their defense to thank. Two super-hot QBs face off, both in prime form. Mahomes has slightly better passing stats, but Allen is better protected and more of a running threat. I get that Mahomes can be a game changer, but Allen is no slouch in that department either. Give a slight nod to the Chiefs’ passing offense, if you will, but after than it is all about the Bills. They are better on both sides of the ball in the red zone, are 6th on avg. in the major rushing categories, and far superior on defense.

There was a stretch when the Chiefs held the opposition to under two touchdowns on defense, but that has not been the case lately. The Bills have the best defense against the run, and are first in too many categories to list here. The Bills’ O-line has been terrific this year, and their defense has savaged opposing Qbs at an average of 5+ over the last three games.  I really don't see Kansas City matching up well here. Yes, the Chiefs are at home this week but the Bills are playing like a team on a mission right now. Bills to cover, and very likely win.

I like this play quite a bit. Looking at the standings, Washington is 9th and Boston is 10th. Neither has played all that well of late. Boston has dropped two in a row, both as a favorite, while Washington is 1-8 ATS its last nine games. The Wizards have also lost two straight as a favorite.

But what sticks out here is that the Celtics have a better point differential. They are better defensively than the Wizards. Looking at all the realistic playoff contenders in the East, the Wiz have the worst point differential.

Boston lost twice to Washington early in the year. In the second game, they sank only 2 of 26 three-point attempts. That’s very bad and also unlikely to repeat itself. Speaking of bad three-point shooting, leading scorer Jayson Tatum has missed his last 20 3PA. This is a player that ranks 10th in the NBA at 25.2 points per game.

I believe the Celtics are due to make a lot of threes in this game. If nothing else, the law of averages is in their favor. 

Going back to January 4th, the Wizards have beaten only one team that wasn’t Orlando or Oklahoma City. Go with the better team on Sunday. TAKE BOSTON

Red hot Marquette hosts #20 Xavier here. The Golden Eagles have won five in a row and covered the spread every time. They are fresh off an upset of #11 Villanova earlier this week. It was their third straight win over a ranked opponent.

This Marquette team has balance with four players averaging at least 11 points. During the win streak, the Golden Eagles are averaging 79.4 points and giving up only 64.4. Xavier’s last five games, which includes two losses, have been much tighter. The Musketeers are averaging only 70.6 points and giving up 69.4. 

The revenge angle is in play here as Xavier beat Marquette back in December, 80-71. But Marquette is obviously playing much better now. They held Providence and Villanova both under 60 points. 

Beating ‘Nova was really impressive. Marquette was the first road team to win there since 2018.  

So at home, I like the Golden Eagles to handle their business. Xavier has lost twice to Villanova recently and they were a bit lucky to stave off what was almost another loss on Thursday. They were down 10 in the second half to a DePaul team that was playing without its leading scorer. The Musketeers ended up winning by only one point, 68-67.  It was the fifth time they failed to cover in the last six games. TAKE THE POINTS

Wyoming has had a couple close calls over its current five-game win streak. But both of those were not at home. In Laramie, the Cowboys are 7-0 with a +26.9 scoring average. I’m surprised they’re not favored by more here, especially with New Mexico on a five game losing streak. 

Perhaps the line is shorter than expected because New Mexico is 11-5-1 ATS. Wednesday was the fifth time they’ve covered in the last six games. But this is a situation where the Lobos are simply overmatched. The oddsmakers were a bit too generous in giving them 16 points at Colorado State. But that game saw New Mexico shoot better than expected and make 14 threes. 

Don’t think they’ll do that again. Wyoming is excellent defensively as it is allowing less than 40 percent shooting for the year. The Cowboys just won by 15 on Wednesday against San Jose State, keeping their perfect conference record intact. Four minutes into the game, they took the lead and never relinquished it.

New Mexico allowing 83.4 points on the road is a problem, for them at least. Wyoming’s only two losses this year were to Pac 12 teams, one of which was Arizona. The home team is just way better. Lay the points with WYOMING

Both Coppin State and Norfolk State are on 3-0 ATS win streaks entering Saturday. But the similarities end there. Norfolk State has simply been the better team all year. They have an 11-4 straight up record on the season while Coppin State has won only three games straight up all year. 

Norfolk State has also won all three of the games it has covered in a row. The last one was a 14-point victory at MD-Eastern Shore. That game saw the Spartans pull away in the second half. After playing so many games on the road the last two months, Norfolk State will be glad to be back home. They’ve won all four games on their home court and done so by an average of 36 points per contest! 

Coppin State was a small underdog in recent wins over South Carolina State and Morgan State. Before those wins, the Eagles had lost nine in a row. Last Saturday’s win came on a buzzer beater from beyond halfcourt. Coppin State trailed by 10 at halftime against Morgan State. So had it not been for the buzzer beater, we’d be talking about a team that had lost 10 of 11.

Like Norfolk, Coppin State has played most of its games on the road. Problem is they are 2-13 away from home, those two wins coming each of the last two Saturdays. Can’t see them making it three in a row. Norfolk State is the best team in the MEAC and should win handily. Play on NORFOLK STATE

In what could end up being a high scoring game, I like Eastern Washington to win at home. It’s difficult for me to see Northern Colorado being able to shoot the ball as well as they did Thursday at Idaho. The Bears made 57.1% of their field goal attempts, including 47.4% from three, on their way to an 87-70 win.

It also helped that NCO saw Idaho make only 3 of its 16 three-point attempts. The wide disparity in three-point shooting basically dictated that game’s outcome. While NCO is a good three-point shooting team, they face an EWU team that is keeping its opponents right around 30% for the year from distance.

Eastern Washington has gotten to play just six home games and three have been since the New Year. They’ve won two in a row, besting Idaho 96-93 and then Sacramento State 75-62 on Thursday. Normally, the Eagles are very good in Cheney. Their home record the last three seasons is 24-6. 

So getting the home team at this price seems ideal. They are on an 18-5 ATS run when playing with just one day of rest between games. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON

The high-flying Bengals, led by star QB Joe Burrow, face a formidable ground-dwelling Titans team that likely features the return of the King, Derrick Henry. Burrow has put up the big numbers in spite of being sacked more than just about any QB in the league. The Titans’ defense sit 25th in passing yards given up, however they are much better in points allowed in the air (7th) and passing first downs. They will get to Burrow, but that hasn’t seemed to matter to his performance. The Bengals’ run defense, 7th for the season, has struggled lately, giving up 150+ yards on average in their last three games.

While this game could be close, I favor the Titans for several reasons. Running under all of the hype around the return of Henry, Tannehill has put together some good outings in his last games. The Bengals’ pass defense is well below average and their defensive line is seriously compromised by injuries. The Titans will have more of a flexible offense on Saturday, and have had very good success in the red zone. The Bengals have a very solid running back in Joe Mixon, but don’t use him much and the Titans’ run defense is very very tough. The Titans will struggle to contain Burrow and Co., but they don’t give up a lot of points and are 4th in red-zone defense. The Titans are healthy and well rested. The best defense against Burrow is to keep him off the field. I think the Titans will establish a run game against the Bengals and slow this game down. A healthy Henry would just be the icing on the cake. Look for the Titans to win and cover.

The two hottest teams from the MAC will hook up tonight in Athens, Ohio has won nine straight games and is 14-2 on the season. Toledo carries a five-game win streak into this game and they have also covered the spread in each of those five victories.

Ohio hasn’t lost at home this year. The Bobcats are 8-0 in Athens and winning by 11.4 points per contest. Their only two losses this year came against Kentucky and LSU! This is a good basketball team.

Not saying Toledo isn’t any good, but the fact they are on the road places the Rockets at a slight disadvantage. All four of their losses this year have come away from home. In the last two road games, UT gave up 72 and 78 points.

Ohio has been a covering machine in the MAC the past three seasons. They are 27-13 ATS. The last time they faced Toledo was the MAC Tournament in March and the Bobcats won that game. They’d make the NCAA Tournament and pull a first round upset over Virginia.

Four starters are back from that NCAA Tournament squad and the Bobcats remain the favorites to win the league this year. Each of their last four home wins have come by at least seven points. Lay the points with OHIO

Earlier this month, Murray State made news by announcing it would be joining the Missouri Valley Conference in July. But that’s the future. Here in the present, the Racers are dominating their current conference (Ohio Valley) with a 5-0 record. They are 15-2 overall on the season.

That dominance should - pretty clearly - continue tonight when Murray State hosts Eastern Illinois. The Racers are - justifiably - big favorites here. They’ve won their eight home games by an average of almost 28 points.

Then you’ve got Eastern Illinois, who is 2-14 overall and hasn’t won a single road game. EIU will not be sad to see Murray State leave the OVC. Three days ago, at home, they lost 72-46 to the Racers at home. 

So it’s a quick rematch and obviously there’s no reason to think that things will go any better here for the underdog. Eastern Illinois is just 14-28 ATS in conference play the last three seasons. They are putting up only 50.7 points per game away from home. 

Murray State has covered 10 of the last 13 times it has been a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. This is a large spread, but for good reason. Lay it!

Winthrop has a perfect 3-0 straight up record in the Big South, but the Eagles have been unable to cash any tickets as favorites this year. They are 0-7 ATS in the chalk role and have not covered any of the last five games.

But I look for that to change on Thursday. Winthrop takes on a struggling Presbyterian side tonight.  It’s a road game, but Presbyterian isn’t a team to be feared. In their last home game, they lost 82-72 as an eight point favorite.

As conference foes, these teams meet twice every year. It’s an interesting pattern the previous two years. Winthrop won all four games, but failed to cover the spread every time.

That plays a bit into the recent form of the Eagles winning, but not covering. However, what I find interesting is that they were double digit favorites each of those last four games against Presbyterian. Here, it’s a relatively short number and I’m seeing value on the road team. 

Presbyterian has lost eight straight games against Division I opponents. Since the beginning of December, the only three teams that the Blue Hose have beaten are: Bob Jones U, Carver Bible and Truett-McConnell. I’m not making those schools up. Lay the points with WINTHROP

San Antonio’s quest to make it back to .500, or at the very least get back in the top 10 in the West, requires that they win games like this. Tonight they host Oklahoma City, unquestionably one of the four worst teams in the league.

The Thunder have been covering at a high rate this year, as they are always underdogs. But they’ve got just one win in the last eight games. 

Truthfully, the Spurs haven’t been much better, with just two wins in their last 12 games. But they led Phoenix in the fourth quarter, here at home, the other night. I just have a “feeling” this is the game where SA “puts it all together.” 

OKC was down 22 Monday in Dallas. That they were able to close the gap to two when the final buzzer sounded is a little bit misleading.

The Spurs have covered four straight times following a double digit loss at home. Take them minus the points here.

Minnesota played last night, so this is a good chance for Atlanta to pick up a much needed victory. The Hawks are 18-25 right now. This is a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

The Timberwolves haven’t exactly been “playoff regulars,” so they’ve got to be thrilled to be seventh in the West. They picked up a win last night, 112-110, but did not cover as three-point favorites. I picked up a win with the Over.

Minnesota is still a “young” team, so I see them as being prone to a “letdown” this evening. The last time they were off a win and playing with no rest, they scored 88 points and lost to the Knicks. That was at home.

It’s a losing road record for the Timberwolves this season. I can’t stress how desperate the Hawks will be for a win here. They are coming off a win, against Milwaukee, so you know what they’re capable of doing. They won at Minnesota last month. Lay the short number with the HAWKS 

Loyola Chicago should be a familiar name to those who follow the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers have made two deep Tourney runs in the last four years, one of them all the way to the Final Four (in 2018). Currently on a nine-game win streak, they are back in the Top 25 as of yesterday (ranked #22). 

Expect an easy win on Tuesday. Evansville is a bad team with a 4-11 record. The Purple Aces hadn’t played in almost a month when it was time for the Missouri Valley Conference portion of the schedule to go into full effect. They’ve lost all three games in January, two by 22 or more.

Loyola is clearly the best Missouri Valley team this year, although they’ve had some close calls. Two of their four league wins have required overtime. But this one is looking like the easiest matchup yet. 

Saturday saw Loyola hold Indiana State to 56 points. Evansville is only averaging 60.5 points this season. So it should be another solid effort at the defensive end from the favorite here.

The past two years have seen Loyola win all four head to head meetings. Three of the wins have been by double digits. Lay the points with LOYOLA CHICAGO

Akron, who is one of the top teams in the MAC, has hit a recent snag. They’ve lost two of three and are just 9-5 on the year. But tonight they host a Western Michigan team that is on a six-game losing streak. Expect this to be an easy cover by the home team.

The Zips lost 67-55 at rival Kent State on Friday. In addition to falling victim to a career night from Kent State’s Sincere Carry, the Zips were terrible at shooting from long range. They made only 4 of 24 three point attempts. 

But for the year, they’ve shot well from distance. At home they are making 37.4% of three-point attempts and that’s a big reason why they are putting up 82.4 points per game at the James A. Rhodes Arena. With Western Michigan giving up 86.1 points per game on the road this year, tonight should be an excellent showing at the offensive end from Akron.

WMU has scored more than 64 points only once during its six-game losing streak. They never seem to do well in games where the total is 130 to 139.5. They are 5-17 ATS in such games the last three seasons, 0-6 when on the road.

This is a game Akron should win by 20 or more points. Western Michigan is getting outscored by 21.1 points per game on the road. Lay the points with AKRON

Save for one bad game at Madison Square Garden last week, the Mavericks have been tearing it up of late. They come into Monday having won eight of their last nine games. On Friday, they ended the long win streak of the Memphis Grizzlies with an emphatic 112-85 beatdown. That was followed by another double digit victory, 108-92 over Orlando on Saturday.

This should be a third straight double digit victory for the Mavs as they host Oklahoma City on Monday. While the Thunder have been more competitive than expected so far, they don’t win games. Saturday marked their eighth loss in the last 10 tries. They blew a double digit lead at home against Cleveland and ended up going down 107-102.

The key to the Mavericks’ recent success has been their defense. They’ve led the league in defensive efficiency over the last three weeks - by a rather wide margin, in fact. Oklahoma City, despite averaging 116 points in its last three games, is still last in the league at 100.8 points per game.

This is the third meeting of the year between these teams. In the first two, both of which were played in OKC, the Mavs held the Thunder to 84 and 86 points. Should be another easy win here. Lay the points. 

The Cardinals have been on a downward trend, losing 4 of 5, scoring less points and allowing considerably more over the last month. There is no defensive category where they have shown anything but a slide. Things are not much better on offense with far less passing yards, and far poorer results in the red zone. That is a lot of ship to right coming into the wildcard weekend. They are a good road team and beat the Cowboys on the road, but lets not forget that they lost badly on the road to the Lions.

The Rams have won 4 of 5, losing narrowly to the 49ers last week. Well, don’t they always lose to the 49ers? Much has been and should be made of Stafford’s ability to turn the ball over. He faced formidable pressure from the 49ers’ defense and was sacked 5 times. The Cardinals will not exert that kind of pressure on Stafford this week. The Rams’ defense are tough on the run, and very good at getting to the quarterback. They give up yards against the pass, but not necessarily points. They are much better in the red zone of late. They beat Arizona by 7 last time out. I don’t think it will be much different this week.

The Rams have the stars who can excel, Stafford being one of them. This is a critical game for some very big Rams reputations. I am wagering for LA to step up here. Take the Rams to win and cover.

Over the weekend, SF Austin suffered its second loss in the last three games. It was 49-41 at Sam Houston State. As you can tell from that score, it was a bad shooting night. The Lumberjacks made only 26.3% of their field goal attempts and were 3 of 25 from three-point range.

It was also the third straight ATS loss for the Lumberjacks, who are trying to make their presence felt in the WAC, their new conference home after a move from the Southland. 

Tonight should be a “get-well” game for SF Austin as they face one of their old Southland rivals, Lamar, who is having an absolutely terrible season. Lamar comes into Monday with a 2-14 SU record. Both wins were against non-DI opponents.

The Cardinals just got beat by Chicago State, who is a horrible team, on Saturday. They were actually eight-point favorites in that game, playing at home. On the road, Lamar hasn’t won a game. They are 0-10. 

While Lamar has been somewhat competitive this year, that won’t be the case tonight. SF Austin should be in a foul mood and ready to dominate one of the easiest opponents on their remaining schedule. LAY THE POINTS

The Chiefs crushed the Steelers just three weeks ago, winning by 26. The Steelers squeaked into the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, and all the talk about no pressure on the Steelers in this game doesn’t hide the fact that the Chiefs are a much better team with a recent history of playoff success.

The Steelers’ claim to fame is their pass defense, in particular Qb pressure, pass yards allowed and yards per attempt. That said, it is odd that against the good pass-first offenses they have played (Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers and Vikings) , all were losses and some by wide margins. As far as sacks go, the Chiefs are third in the league in protecting their QB, allowing just 1 sack per week over their last three games. TJ Watt was held in control in their last meeting, a rare occasion.

The Steelers are dead last against the run. Even though the Chiefs are best known as a pass-first offense, they have far greater balance this year and can run the ball very effectively. Mahomes will do whatever is needed under the circumstances to win a game. He is still one of the best rushing Qbs in the business.

The Chiefs’ defense gives up the eighth least points allowed, which is surprising as there is no one area in which they excel. They are healthy now, and we need to be reminded that they have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to under two Tds. The Steelers just don’t put many points on the board. With a very poor run game and a very average pass offense, I don’t expect them to surprise anyone on Sunday. Take the Chiefs to win and cover.

Utah, who has slipped to fourth in the West, could really use a win here. They’ve lost four in a row despite being favored in their last three games. 

Even more surprising is that all four Jazz losses have been by double digits. This has been their worst stretch of the season.

But tonight sees them returning to the site of their last win, which came on January 5th, 115-109 in Denver. At that moment in time, the Jazz had won eight of nine.

The Nuggets are in the second game of a back to back and playing their third game in four days. The last two have gone well for them. Not only did the blowout Portland 140-108, they did the same to the Lakers last night, winning 133-96. 

But it’s probably not possible for Denver to match last night’s shooting where they were 23 of 40 from three. Depth looks like it will be an issue tonight with JaMychal Green entering health and safety protocol and Austin Rivers out with a non-COVID illness. Utah is too good to continue losing like this. I still think they’re one of the top teams. Lay the points!

Iowa is a team that can score. They are fourth in the country in scoring at 86.5 points per game. But they don’t defend particularly well. That’s evident by the fact that they are 160th in adjusted defensive efficiency and also them giving up an average of 77.2 points per game when they play on the road.

That defensive efficiency rating of theirs really sticks out. It’s the poorest mark - by far - of any team in the KenPom top 40. So I really like the idea of grabbing the points here, with Iowa being on the road.

The Hawkeyes were a bit lucky to pull one out in Iowa City earlier this week. They rallied from a 48-41 halftime deficit to beat Indiana 83-74. But again, that was a home game. Let it be known that Iowa’s last three true road games all ended up as losses.

Minnesota comes into Sunday as a desperate team. They’re on a three-game losing streak after falling in the final second to Michigan State on Wednesday. It was still a valiant effort as double digit underdogs against a team ranked 10th in the country.

Bottom line: I just think that the Golden Gophers will score enough to stay within a generous number at home. Grab the points.

The Patriots face the Bills for a chance to move on, but looking carefully at the two teams’ last month’s performances, it seems unlikely that they can or will win this game. There has been a significant regression in the Patriots’ defensive performance, especially in the run, an aspect of the game that will likely figure prominently on a very cold day in Buffalo. Points allowed are way up, their ability to pressure QBs has declined, and their red zone defense has declined. This against a Bills team with the third highest points for. For a generally pass-first offense, the Bills have now passed the Patriots in rushing yards and rush yards/attempt. Allen has had excellent protection three weeks in a row.

As much as the Patriots’ defense has declined, the Bills’ defensive effort has soared. First in points allowed, dominant in all pass defense categories, they have also shown huge improvement in rush defense.

The Bills are very healthy; not so the Patriots, with numerous starters banged up. The Bills are on a roll and Allen is in good form. There are some questions around Patriots’ QB Jones lately, and the rookie QB faces a very tough defense in cold play-off conditions. Belichick or no, the Bills will win and cover..

#1 Baylor looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday. I expect this game to go quite well for the top ranked Bears. 

They led Texas Tech by 15 in the first half before suffering their first loss since last year’s Big 12 Tournament. The reigning National Champs had won 22 in a row by an average of 26 points.

Oklahoma State is also off a loss to Texas Tech, though theirs came in more lopsided fashion. It was 78-58 down in Lubbock on Thursday. This is a trying season for the Cowboys, who are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor has had two more days to prepare for this game, an advantage they don’t really need but will gladly take. This is OSU’s third road game in five days and they have failed to cover eight of their last nine overall.

Look for the best team in the country to come out with some real energy after suffering their first loss of the year. That should result in a big win. Play on BAYLOR

The Raiders, off an inspiring win last week, squeaked into the playoffs, and now face a rested Bengals team. The pass-first Bengals offense comes in with Burrow at his peak, some solid receiving options, and a top 5 running back, a dual threat, who they probably under-use on the ground. Burrow is accurate, explosive and does not turn the ball over. The only issue with Burrow is the lack of protection he gets. The Bengals defense is middle of the pack. Their strengths are against the run, they give up yards but not necessarily points against the pass, and they can be effective in pressuring the QB. They have a definite advantage in turnovers, both on offense and defense.

The Raiders have presented a much more balanced attack in their last few games and it has been working for them. Carr might be playing second to Burrow, but his stats speak for themselves. The Raiders have relied much more on their running game lately, and have a good running back, also a twin threat, in Jacobs. On defense, the Raiders have given up a ton of points this season, but that has declined outside of last week. They have tightened up against the run, but do struggle against a strong pass-first offense such as the Bengals. The Raiders’ red zone defense is also an issue.

The Bengals beat the Raiders handily on the road earlier in the season. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in a very long time, so they are due. The Raiders did not have the benefit of a week off, and are on the road. I am wagering that the Bengals, a real offensive powerhouse in top form, to outscore the Raiders. Cincinnati to win and cover.

There’s a top five in the SEC pecking order with Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee and Alabama all vying for conference supremacy. Two of the five teams go head to head on Saturday as #18 Kentucky faces #22 Tennessee in Lexington Saturday afternoon.

UT has split its first four SEC games, winning twice at home and losing both times on the road. That pattern doesn’t bode well for today. The teams the Volunteers lost at: were Alabama and LSU. Kentucky is 11-0 at Rupp Arena so far, winning by 27.5 points per contest.

The Wildcats’ only SEC loss came at LSU. They never trailed Tuesday in a 78-66 win over Vanderbilt. In that game, Oscar Tshiebwe turned in his 12th double double of the season and a career-high 30 points. UK led by as many as 28 before taking their foot off the gas near the end of the game.

Kentucky seems to have a major edge at the offensive end where they are eighth in the country in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee is only 58th. Versus teams that average 77 or more points per game, the Vols are 5-14 ATS the previous three seasons. 

Because they’re playing at home, Kentucky has a significant advantage. Lay the points here. 

San Antonio is desperate for a win here. They lost at home to the Rockets on Wednesday. That was their fourth straight loss as well as their eighth in the last nine games. The only win was by the slightest of margins (99-97) over Boston.

Cleveland is no longer a pushover as it proved again on Wednesday when they went to Utah and smashed the Jazz 111-91, despite being a five-point underdog. The Cavs shockingly own the top point differential in the Eastern Conference.

But their ATS record has slipped a bit this month. They’ve covered just two of the last nine games, Wednesday being one of them. Oddsmakers are going to start catching up with the Cavaliers and this is an instance where I don’t think they should be favored. 

Two starters could be returning tonight for the Spurs. That would greatly aid the likes of Dejounte Murray, who had a triple double in the last game. Murray was backed up by six teammates scoring 11 or more points. I really don’t know how San Antonio managed to lose to Houston. They were up nine in the third quarter.

An interesting tidbit on the Spurs: their home record is 7-11, but they have scored more points than they’ve allowed in those games. They average 115.6 PPG here. Take SAN ANTONIO

Virginia Commonwealth and St. Bonaventure may have similar straight up records (10-3 and 9-4 respectively), but it’s a much different story at the pay window as VCU is 10-4 ATS (7-0 on the road) while the Bonnies are 3-8 ATS and have failed to cover seven in a row. But what I’m looking for Friday is a reversal of fortunes.

The Bonnies had not played in almost a month (four cancellations/postponements) when they took the floor against LaSalle on Tuesday. They won 80-76, but could not cover the 9.5 point spread on the road as the game went to overtime. I’m going to “excuse” that close call, based on how long it had been since the Bonnies had last played. With a game under their belt and playing at home, expect a much better effort from the Bonnies tonight.

VCU has won seven straight overall and is 3-0 in January. The Rams had one close call, a 53-52 win at Dayton, but other than that they’ve been winning rather comfortably. 

The key to tonight’s game is that I do not think VCU can match its scoring from the last two games when it put up 85 on LaSalle and 84 on George Washington. The Rams only average 63.4 points per game and are 255th in offensive efficiency. 

St. Bonaventure doesn’t foul all that often and VCU isn’t very good at converting free throws all that often. The road team also has a high turnover rate. Assuming the Bonnies can convert those TO’s into points, they should easily cover this number as VCU won’t be doing much scoring of their own. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE

USC just suffered its first loss and is now laying a big number against Oregon State. I’m all about taking the points in this matchup.

It was only 48 hours ago that the Trojans suffered that first loss, on the road, to Stanford. Favored by 6.5 points, they lost 75-69. It was a poor shooting effort, which may have had something to do with the game being moved. Originally, it was going to be played Saturday. But COVID rearranged the schedule.

Now the Trojans will play three conference games in a week. Up next is Oregon State, who was also an Elite Eight team last season. The Beavers are not having as good of a 2021-22 season; they are just 3-11 and coming off a last second loss to Oregon. But they have covered three in a row.

Attendance will be limited for tonight’s game. That minimizes any home court advantage for USC.

The underdog keeps this one close! Take the points with Oregon State. 

UCLA is 10-1 and ranked third in the country. But they are 0-2 ATS since returning to the court from a near month-long layoff. Last week the Bruins did not cover against Long Beach State or against California. Considering Cal only made 1 of its 14 three-point attempts, it’s rather shocking UCLA couldn’t win that game by more than eight points. 

Oregon is a much tougher opponent than Cal (or Long Beach State). The Ducks and Bruins met just once last year. The Ducks won 82-74. The teams played just once in the 2019-20 season. The Ducks won that one as well, 96-75. 

Both games took place in Eugene. But the Ducks did just win on the road Monday, despite allowing 53.4% shooting. They beat Oregon State 78-76. It was their third straight win. They’ve got confidence entering this game.

UCLA has played only four games since the start of December. That kind of inactivity leaves them prone to a potential upset here. Grab the points with OREGON

After thrashing the Bulls 138-112 last night, Brooklyn is back at home Thursday to play Oklahoma City. That means no Kyrie Irving (unvaccinated) but it’s not like the Thunder should provide a ton of resistance here. My view is that after seven straight ATS losses (going into last night), the Nets are due to pick up steam.

Due to the blowout nature of last night’s game, Steve Nash was able to give some much needed rest to key players. Kevin Durant played just 30 minutes while James Harden played 33. That duo still found a way to combine for 52 points against the Bulls. We should get similar production, if not more, with them on the court for a longer amount of time tonight.

Oklahoma City has lost five in a row and hasn’t been able to even score 100 points in five of its last seven games. They are last in the league in scoring, a big problem when getting ready to face Brooklyn, who is one of the top scoring teams.

Back in November, the Nets beat the Thunder 120-96 and they were nine point ROAD favorites. It wasn’t the second night of a back to back, but there was no Irving.

The real sad thing for the Thunder is that they turned in one of their better offensive games on Tuesday and still lost. I don’t think they’re going to score a ton of points tonight, so lay the points with BROOKLYN.

Not sure Wisconsin deserves to be ranked #13 in the country at this moment. Granted, the Badgers are 13-2 and on a five-game win streak. But they are the third highest ranked Big 10 team right now. Does anyone really believe this is the third best team in this ultra-strong conference.

Four of the wins during Wisconsin’s current streak have been by five points or fewer. They did go to Purdue and pull an upset, give the Badgers credit for that. But some of the other close calls were against Nicholls State and Illinois State.

This week saw the Badgers move up 10 spots in the Top 25. I’m really salivating at this opportunity to fade them.

It helps that they are facing Ohio State, who won the first meeting 73-55 in Columbus. Wisconsin was dominated on the glass in that game and was held to 33.8% from the floor, including 6 of 26 from behind the arc. 

The Buckeyes have lost only one time in their last seven games. They beat Duke earlier this year. I get the revenge angle being in play, but I think Ohio State is better. So TAKE THE POINTS.

Middle Tennessee finds itself on a three-game losing streak. But the Blue Raiders are 10-2 against the spread in 2021-22. There’s only two teams with a higher percentage of covering games. MT is 5-0 ATS when favored. So this is precisely the kind of spot where you want to back them.

The opponent is Florida Atlantic, who is 7-6 and coming off a win at Marshall. But it’s been an up and down year for the Owls. Before going to Marshall and pulling the upset, FAU was an upset victim at the hands of High Point, which was also a road game.

The three straight losses that MT has suffered all came on the road. They are 6-0 at home, winning by almost 23 points per contest.

FAU had not won on the road prior to their last game. They are just 7-22 in the last 29 games outside of Boca Raton. They’d been off for almost three weeks when they won at Marshall.

Laying a small number with MT, at home, just makes sense here. 

Both Commonwealth teams are off losses. Virginia had no answers for North Carolina’s Armando Bacot in a 74-58 loss on Saturday. Virginia Tech has lost two in a row and six of nine while dealing with COVID. 

Several factors have me on Virginia here. The Cavaliers are at home, after playing three straight on the road. They are still a top 25 team (barely) and only giving up 58.8 points per contest. 

Virginia Tech gives up a similar number of points per game, however that number has started to rise after losses to Duke and NC State. The latter loss occurred after a two-week break induced by COVID and the Hokies seemed to falter down the stretch. Another problem for the Hokies is they’ve managed to top 65 points just two times in the last nine games.

You don’t see Virginia as this small of a home favorite all that often. They are better than how they’ve performed ATS at home so far. 

Virginia Tech has been an underdog two times previous to this. They lost both games. They are 5-12 SU the last 17 tries as a dog. Play on VIRGINIA

These are two of the five teams that believe they can win a SEC Championship this season. Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee are the others. Auburn is now being projected as a 1-seed by Joe Lunardi, but I’m not convinced they’re going to end up in that lofty position. Sell the Tigers here in what will be a very tough environment.

The mood in Tuscaloosa figures to be a bit “dour” as the football team just lost the National Championship Game last night. Also, the basketball team lost at Missouri on Saturday, as a 14-point favorite. Off that kind of loss, the Crimson Tide should come out motivated here, looking to raise the spirits of those on campus. 

Alabama has not lost at home. They are 7-0 here this season and have won 10 of the last 12 times they’ve hosted Auburn. The Tide have also not lost back to back games this season.

Previous wins over Houston and Gonzaga show Bama can beat anyone. Auburn hasn’t faced many strong teams during their 11-game win streak, save for LSU and that was a home game. 

Road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 have seen the Tigers go just 2-11 ATS. Play on ALABAMA.

Neither SEC team had much difficulty winning on New Year’s Eve. Alabama beat Cincinnati 27-6 in one semifinal. Georgia beat Michigan 34-11 in the second semifinal. Now it’s a rematch of the SEC Championship Game, only this time a much bigger prize is on the line - the National Championship.

Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, 41-24 as a six-point underdog. The Crimson Tide are again underdogs here, although the line is obviously shorter. But it’s hard for me to shake what happened back on December 4th. I expect the Tide to win again here and give Nick Saban his seventh National Championship since coming to Tuscaloosa (and third in the past five years). 

Bama’s offense is simply way better than any other that Georgia has faced this year. The Tide account for nearly one-third of the points allowed by the Bulldogs’ defense this season. 

The SEC Championship is the only time Alabama has been an underdog in many, many years. It’s a little surprising that the oddsmakers don’t have them favored for this rematch. They have dominated Georgia, winning the previous seven matchups. The last time Bama lost to Georgia was Saban’s first season here, which was 2007, the last season where the Tide weren’t ranked #1 at some point. 

Georgia has not covered the spread in back-to-back games since starting the year out at 5-1 ATS. Alabama is clearly a “psychological hurdle” for them and one they are unlikely to clear on the 10th. Take the points with ALABAMA.

After losing three straight games, each time as a favorite, Campbell finds itself as a slight underdog to Winthrop on Monday. Winthrop, who has not played since 12/21, has dominated this Big South rivalry, taking the last seven meetings. They’ve lost their last two games, so motivation will be high for both teams.

Though Campbell is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and Winthrop is 0-5 ATS as a favorite, I am backing the chalk in this one. This is for a number of reasons. One is where the game is being played. Winthrop has won all three previous home games this year while averaging 85 points. 

Campbell’s last win over a Division I foe took place all the way back on November 27th. They defeated Stetson by just two points. 

Though Campbell is perfect against the spread when getting points, they were underdogs of 7.5 or more in all three games. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Fighting Camels are 1-5 ATS in their last six. Last Wednesday was their first game since 12/22 and they shot just 40% overall and 16.7% from behind the arc.

Winthrop obviously has had Campbell’s number in the past. These teams play very different brands of basketball. Winthrop likes to get out and run while Campbell plays slow. The problem for the Camels is they only average 61.7 points per contest on the road. As a small underdog, that’s not nearly enough to cover against Winthrop on the road. Lay the points with WINTHROP

Golden State will finally get Klay Thompson back on Sunday. It’ll be a familiar foe Thompson and the Warriors are up against. Cleveland is the team they played in four consecutive NBA Finals (2015-18) and they won three of them.

Klay hasn't played a single minute since landing awkwardly on his leg in the 2019 NBA Finals. After that, he then tore his Achilles in November of 2020. That's now 900+ days of being sidelined. 

Over the course of his career, Thompson is shooting an extraordinary 41.9% from deep. He's also accomplished one of the most incredible feats in NBA History. 37pts on 13/13 shooting in a SINGLE QUARTER. I mean that's a great game for most people. He went on to score 52 in the game. Also, Klay once dropped 43 pts while taking only 4 dribbles. Some things that this man has done are just out of this world. 

Cleveland has been a major surprise this season, which is emphasized by them having the NBA’s best against the spread record. But I think the oddsmakers are going to catch up with the Cavs over these next couple months. While this is obviously a big spread, it really says something about how oddsmakers’ perceive the Cavs compared to one of the top teams in the league.

Thompson’s return couldn’t have come at a better time as the Warriors have lost two in a row for the first time this season. Steph Curry and Draymond Green missed the last game, a 101-96 loss in New Orleans, but they are both listed as probable to join Thompson on the court Sunday. Lay the points with GOLDEN STATE

The Saints are still in the playoff picture and the Falcons aren’t. All the talk of the Falcons as spoilers is nothing like the impetus of still playing for the post season. This and the Saints’ absolutely dominant defense, arguably the best against the run and hugely improved vs the pass of late, will push the Saints past the Falcons.

As much as the Saints defense has improved, the Falcons’ defense has regressed. They are bottom 6 in points allowed, red zone defense, and 32nd and slipping in Qb sacks. They allowed 175 yards rushing over their last three games. Their offense is also trending down, averaging just 16 points scored over their last three games. Ryan has been sacked 37 times, including 5 last week.

Will the Saints cover? They bumped their points-for up to 18 last week. Hill should have plenty of protection, and did get something going with two of his receivers, Kamara and Callaway. He is a big threat to run and the Falcons don’t fare well against a QB who can run. The Saints are healthier than they have been, and have a solid rush attack, possibly including Ingram as well as Kamara. While I am not expecting a blow-out, I am wagering on the Saints to cover as well as win.

Cleveland State is off a one-point win at Robert Morris. That puts the Vikings at 5-0 in Horizon League play. They’ve won three straight and 9 of 10 overall. The only loss in that stretch of games came by five points, in overtime, at Oklahoma State (a team that just beat Texas on Saturday!)

The Vikings’ success in the Horizon League dates back to last season when they shared the regular season crown with Wright State and then won the Conference Tournament. CSU should not have much difficulty defeating in-state rival Youngstown State this afternoon.

YSU is coming off a loss, 71-61 to IPFW, leaving them at 9-6 overall and 2-3 the last five games. One of the Penguins’ two recent victories was against a non-DI team. The other win was by four at last place Robert Morris. The last three losses have been by a total of 55 points.

These two Ohio schools simply are not in the same class. Cleveland State swept the two games last year, winning by an average of 16 points. The Vikings have covered 32 of the last 46 Horizon League games and in addition to that, they are 3-0 ATS the L3 times they’ve been a road favorite of three points or less.

Youngstown State has only covered one of six home games this year and they aren’t getting nearly enough here to buck that trend. Lay the points in this one with CLEVELAND STATE

The Titans face the Texans in a key game for their play off hopes. They are playing for a bye week, and with their “ultra RB’ Henry near a return, it would be very significant win. The Titans will leave nothing to chance with the memory of a very poor effort against the Texans still strong.

The Titans defense was absolutely formidable last week, holding Miami to 3 points. They are healthier, with all defensive categories markedly improved over the last three weeks. The Texans’ defense is particularly poor vs. the run; last in yards allowed and 2nd last in rush tds allowed. This kind of performance is obviously a very poor match with the Titans’ strengths. Even without Henry, the Titans’ run-first offense has been taking great strides, averaging 163 yards a game in their last three starts.

Tannehill will remember his last game vs Houston as he was sacked 7 times. The Texans don’t generally apply that much pressure. Look for the Tennessee O-line to do a better job of protection, with Tannehill only throwing as needed. Rookie David Mills appears to be settling in with the Texans, but will likely face intense pressure on game day.

I am wary of a wide spreads in week 18, but I think the Titans will be all in until the end on this one. Who knows what kind of effort to expect from the Texans? I am confident that the Titans will win and cover on Sunday.

Orlando and Detroit have the two worst records in the NBA. Orlando is 7-32. Detroit is 7-30. Someone’s gotta win here and I think it will be Detroit. Orlando has lost seven in a row. Though Detroit is coming off consecutive 30 point defeats, both of those were on the road. They’d won two straight prior to those losses.

The last time the Pistons were at home, they beat San Antonio. Then they went out and won in Milwaukee, which was rather shocking. Back in October, they won the first matchup of the year with Orlando, 110-103 as six-point favorites. The line is obviously much shorter this time and that’s why we like it. No way you can take Orlando getting such a short number on the road. 

Having won a couple of games recently and playing at home, the Pistons should be more confident heading into this one. They are on an 11-3 ATS run following an ATS loss. Also giving them confidence is the fact they are 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings with Orlando and 5-1 ATS the last six meetings here in Detroit. Take the PISTONS

Texas Tech let us down in the game vs. Iowa State, losing 51-47 in what was an ugly performance from both teams. Unfortunately for Red Raiders’ fans, they face an even tougher opponent on Saturday, that being Kansas.

The #6 ranked Jayhawks may not be the favorites in the Big 12 this year (Baylor is), but they remain formidable. Their record is 12-1 and that one loss was by one point, on a buzzer-beater, against Dayton in a Holiday tournament. 

Earlier in the week, KU easily defeated Oklahoma State on the road. It was 74-63 as 6.5 point favorites. The Jayhawks have covered 25 of their last 37 conference games.

Texas Tech’s dreadful shooting in the loss to Iowa State is cause for concern here. The Red Raiders shot 38.8% overall and made only 3 of 17 tries from three. It would be one thing if that were an isolated event. But it was the third time in the last six games where TT did not score 60 points.

Kansas has little difficulty scoring. They average 84.3 points per contest, which is top seven in the country. They scored 73 in the last game despite missing 20 straight shots at one point. Texas Tech, while often good defensively, just can’t compete with this team. Lay the points with KANSAS

Denver badly needs to win tonight as they’ve lost their last two games. The losing is tied to injuries and COVID-related absences. But Nikola Jokic is still here and he had 26-21-11 the other night. The Nuggets lost that game, but only by six to a very good opponent (Utah).

Facing a “lesser” team tonight, I look for the Nuggets to get back into the win column. They’ve had only one losing streak longer than two games all year.

Sacramento has also dropped two in a row. Recently, they’ve been losing to teams that have been without their superstars. There was a loss to Dallas (who was without Doncic), a loss to the Lakers (who didn’t have LeBron or Davis) and most recently a loss to Atlanta (who was without Young, Collins and Bogdanovic).

Unlike Denver, the Kings don’t have a Jokic that they can count on to help turn things around. 

Defensively, Sacramento really struggles on the road. They give up 117.4 points per game when playing away from home. Lay the points with DENVER here.

Both Xavier and Butler are off losses here. But, for Xavier, that loss was all the way back on 12/21 - to Villanova 71-58. There’s actually been only one cancellation for the Musketeers - that being Tuesday’s scheduled game vs. Georgetown. So it’s not like this long stretch of inactivity was unexpected. Still though, the #22 team in the country is likely to be “rusty” on Friday night.

Butler did play Tuesday and lost 71-56 to a good Seton Hall team. So this marks the second straight home game vs. a Top 25 opponent. The Bulldogs were 6-1 in Hinkle Fieldhouse prior to losing to Seton Hall.

Defensively, there’s nothing wrong with what Butler is doing. At home, they are allowing less than 60 points per contest. 

This will be just the third true road game for Xavier. They did win at Oklahoma State, but as I mentioned before lost at Villanova. The Musketeers were not favored in either of those two previous road tilts. They are here.

Xavier is 0-4 ATS the last four times it has been a road favorite. Take the points with BUTLER here.

USC is one of three teams still undefeated. They are 12-0 and ranked in the top ten. But it’s been almost three weeks since the Trojans last played a game. I think all the postponements/cancellations lead to a rusty performance tonight against California.

In the time Southern Cal has been out of action, Cal has gotten three games in. They won all three. Overall, they’ve won five straight. The Bears beat Arizona State by 24 on Sunday, a nice warm-up for this game. It was their ninth straight win at home.

The Bears only loss in Berkeley so far was the season opener. They are 8-2 ATS in home games and 8-1 ATS their last nine games, period.

Thus far, Southern Cal has played only three true road games. Two of them were wins by five points or less. The last one was a two-point win at Washington State. This shapes up to be the Trojans’ most difficult game to date.

Cal’s home success is not limited to this year. They are 29-14 ATS L43 home games. Take the points in this one.

Golden State finds itself in a real predicament tonight. Steph Curry, already mired in a shooting slump, suffered a quad contusion in last night’s loss to Dallas and almost certainly isn’t going to play tonight as a a result. It was a really poor effort from the Warriors last night as they lost 99-82 to the Mavericks.

Curry was just 5 of 24 on field goal attempts, which included 1 of 9 on three pointers. He finished with 14 points. 

The team was only 5 of 28 on three last night. It is next to impossible to fill Curry’s shoes, especially with Klay Thompson still not back. Were Curry playing here, then I’d say there’s an excellent chance Golden State would bounce back from last night’s shooting slump. But that’s not the case,

After facing last year’s NBA Champs and two of the West’s top three teams, New Orleans is getting a big break here with Curry injured. The Pelicans need to start winning as they are just 13-25 this year.

It’s an opportunity the Pelicans must take advantage of here. They’d won five of six before losing the last three. Leading scorer Brandon Ingram has struggled in back to back games, but should bounce back here. Take the points.

Texas Tech is ranked #25 in the country and I believe they are worthy of that ranking. I feel much differently about Iowa State, who checks in ranked #11 in the country. 

The Cyclones just suffered their first loss of the year and it was to #1 Baylor, here at home, 77-72 on New Year’s Day. But just because ISU started the year by winning its first 12 games doesn’t necessarily mean this is one of the best teams in the country.

On the contrary, if you check out the various power ranking systems, you’ll see that Iowa State is not viewed as favorably by the oddsmakers as they are by the pollsters. They’ve been an underdog in five games, covering all five. That’s nice, but unlikely to continue.

The Cyclones finished last year with a 2-22 record! They were 0-18 in the Big 12, the first time a team went winless in this conference since TCU in 2014.

Texas Tech has had Iowa State’s number the last two years. The Red Raiders have won - and covered - all four meetings. All four wins have been by at least 20 points.

Iowa State is a team you’re going to want to start fading. I obviously expect them to lose tonight. Texas Tech is a top 10 team defensively that limits opponents to 31% shooting on threes. Iowa State was 1 of 14 on three point attempts vs. Baylor. Take the points with TEXAS TECH

I know things haven’t been pretty for Houston of late with losses piling up and some “insubordination” to boot. The team has lost eight in a row, all by at least nine points. But tonight the Rockets will have a full complement of players and they are taking on a Washington team that doesn’t blow many opponents out.

Going back to mid-November, the Wizards have just one win that came by greater than seven points. It was against a Cleveland team that was severely undermanned because of COVID. Since starting the season 10-3, Washington is six games below .500 and a lot of underlying metrics suggest they are very lucky to be in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings.

Five of the last six games have seen the Wizards give up 117 points or more. They actually own the third worst point differential in the conference! The team did win on Monday, but by only three points over Charlotte.

Out West, you’ll find Houston at the bottom of the standings. This is their second losing streak of eight or more games this season, but remember they also had a seven-game win streak in between. A couple of players were suspended for Monday’s loss to the 76ers. Those players are going to be back in the lineup tonight.

Just think this is too many points for a middling Washington team to be laying against anybody. Take HOUSTON plus the points

VCU has won four in a row while Dayton is just 2-2 in its last four. But this game takes place in Dayton and I think the home team is a bargain as a short favorite.

The Flyers have won four straight at home. That includes wins by 38 and 39 points. They also upset Va Tech here. The last time the team was in action, it defeated Southern U 69-60. 

VCU doesn’t score a whole heck of a lot and they are 0-3 ATS the previous two years as a road underdog of three points or less. The Rams have had their last four games either postponed or cancelled because of COVID-19, so that four-game win streak doesn’t really mean all that much. It’s been three weeks since they last played a game. 

Offensively, VCU is only 272nd in adjusted efficiency. They shoot below 30% on three-point attempts and turn the ball over on nearly one-quarter of their possessions.

Dayton has also had to postpone its last two games. But a key edge they have in this matchup comes on two-point field goals. The Flyers are 12th in the country in FG% inside the three-point line. I say lay the points with DAYTON

We’ve seen a pretty substantial line move here due to the fact LSU lost its QB (transfer portal) and two of its top defensive players (opt outs). The Tigers will also have an interim coach after Ed Oregeron was dismissed in favor of Brian Kelly. But even so, LSU has more talent than Kansas State and I’ll gladly grab the points in the Texas Bowl.

Kansas State is 7-5 but lost its last two games in pretty feeble fashion. They went down 20-10 to Baylor and 22-17 to Texas. The Wildcats are also dealing with turnover on the coaching staff as they’ll have a new offensive coordinator for Tuesday’s game. Also, QB Skyler Thompson suffered a lower leg injury late in the year. Can’t count on him being the same, even if he does decide to play here. 

Kansas State’s best win this year was probably … West Virginia? They won just two games away from home and one of them was by a single point. The other was at Kansas. The offense has averaged less than 300 yards in its last three games.

It will be interesting to see if LSU elects to start Garrett Nussmeier, a decision that would cost the QB his redshirt season. Regardless, I expect the Tigers that do suit up to really play hard as they look to impress the incoming coaching staff. If LSU had its full complement of players, they would win this game in blowout fashion. Even down a few, they should still keep it close at the very worst. Take LSU plus the points

Colorado faces the Blackhawks Tuesday night.  Avs are tops in goals scored, the Blackhawks at the tail end (30th).  The Avs have a potent powerplay against a very average Chicago PK.  The Blackhawks have only two goals to show for their two games since the break.  The Avs carried on right where they left off against a much tougher opponent in the Ducks.  Fleury is expected back in the net, but he has been off for more than two weeks.  Most goaltenders take a game or two at least to get back in playing form.  Chicago was struggling before the break, and has now lost 4 straight, scoring only 6 goals and allowing 18.  I very much like the Avs, but the odds are prohibitive. Not to worry.  Take the Avs to win -1.5.  they are worth the extra goals.

Both these teams have been defying expectations this season. The Grizzlies have gone 15-4 in their last 19 games, which includes a shocking 10-2 record in the 12 games they were without leading scorer Ja Morant. The Cavs have the best ATS record in the NBA right now at 24-11-2 ATS. 

But Cleveland is not close to being 100 percent right now. There are multiple injuries in the backcourt, including a season-ender to PG Ricky Rubio, which could be a crushing blow. Darius Garland could return to the lineup tonight, but he’s been in health and safety protocol for the last week. How effective will he be in his first game back? 

The Cavs did just beat Indiana on Sunday, 108-104. But they did not cover the spread. It was their fourth straight ATS loss, so predictably they are starting to “give some back” at the betting window. Before beating Indiana, they’d lost each of the previous three games straight up. 

Memphis won its fifth straight last night, beating Brooklyn 118-104 as a 6.5 point underdog. Morant, who is back, has scored 30 or more in four straight games. He had 37 when the Grizzlies beat the Cavs 132-121 in the opening game of the season.

The Grizzlies are a better team than the Cavaliers. Not too worried about this being the second night of a back to back for the Grizz as they are hot right now and 9-3 this year when coming off a double digit win. Take MEMPHIS plus the points

Wisconsin is 10-2 but figures to be in for a proverbial “rude awakening” when they face #3 Purdue on Monday. The third-ranked Boilermakers have been exceptional so far, winning all eight home games by an average of 28 points per game. Their only loss was to Rutgers - on a buzzer-beater - back on Dec 9. 

West Lafayette has not been Wisconsin’s favorite place to visit. The Badgers are 4-42 here all-time and have failed to cover 14 of the previous 18 times. The last time the Badgers played a road game was at Ohio State on Dec 11. They lost there by 18 points. 

While Purdue has rolled to four straight double digit wins, Wisconsin was involved in a close call in their last game, only beating Illinois State by four points. That was after only beating Nicholls State by three points two weeks before, a game where they had to overcome a 12-point deficit.

The Badgers were missing five reserves against Illinois State, a game which took place only five days ago, and all five are listed as questionable for tonight.

This just looks like a total mismatch to us with Purdue having the most efficient offense in the country and Wisconsin only averaging 64 points when not playing in Madison. The home court advantage is huge. Take Purdue to win and cover.

Ohio State is already 2-0 in conference play, with wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. I think they’ll have little difficulty making it three straight Big 10 wins and five straight wins overall when they face struggling Nebraska tonight.

The Cornhuskers did win their last game 88-74, but that was against Kennesaw State and they barely covered the 13.5-point spread. The ‘Huskers are 0-2 in Big 10 games so far, losing at Indiana by 13 and at home to Michigan by 35. They’ve lost five of six overall, three of the losses coming by double digits.

This will be Ohio State’s first game since a December 11th win over Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have a win over Duke this year as well. They are 3-1 vs. Top 25 opponents this season and ranked #13 themselves.

Nebraska is obviously not ranked and is really no match for the Buckeyes here. The Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS their last four games as an underdog and 5-13 ATS their last 18 games as a home dog.

Nebraska is shooting just 27.5% from three-point land this year. Ohio State is at 38.6%. Look for the Buckeyes to easily cover this number

Miami may be undermanned at the moment, but they continue to win. Friday’s 120-110 triumph over Houston, which came on the heels of a game being postponed, was the Heat’s fifth straight victory. We think they’ve got enough to cover against Sacramento here on Sunday.

On Friday, the Heat were led by Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry. That trio is strong enough to carry the team, moving forward. Butler scored a season-high 37 points vs. the Rockets. 

Going back a bit further, Miami has won seven of eight and has the best net efficiency rating this season in the Eastern Conference. While they are 23-13 on the season, Sacramento is just 15-22. 

The Kings were beaten by 16 here at home on New Year’s Eve. The loss was to Dallas, who they had just beaten on a buzzer-beater two days earlier. Sacramento has lost four of its last six, even though all but one of the games took place at home. They have a losing home record.

The Kings’ biggest problem is lack of defense. They give up 113.7 points per contest, which is third most in the NBA. Also of concern is a 1-8 ATS run against teams that have winning records. Take Miami to win and cover here.

Comparing a team’s stats in their last few games to their seasons’ average can be informing. Looking at the Panthers’ defensive numbers, I’d say they’ve already broken out the golf clubs. The Panthers’ rush defense has not been up to much all season, but the pass defense was solid. In their past few games, their effectiveness has plummeted, which is good new for the Saints. The Saints have a running game with Kamara back and Hill at QB, but they need all the help they can get on pass offense. This will be as complete a lineup as the Saints have had in some time, so it will be interesting to see if they can put up more than 14 points, which is what they have averaged lately. The Saints defense has yet to stumble this year; top of the heap in red zone defense, great rushing defense and improving pass defense. Carolina doesn’t put up many points on the board, and again, that number has also tanked lately. The QB position has been an adventure, and their rushing yards are in decline.

This is a rare opportunity for the Saints to put some points on the board, and help out their dwindling chances for a wild card spot. It is really a meaningless game for the Panthers other than for draft position, and an away game at that. I believe the Saints formidable defense will stymie the Panthers’ suspect offense. Take the Saints to win and cover.

The Raiders face the Colts in a crucial game with both teams hit with some severity by covid. QB Wentz could be out for the Colts, which is not quite such a loss in the Colts’ run-first offense. Wentz was solid last week, but many weeks Wentz is not as prominent. Untested rookie Sam Ehlinger will likely replace him. The Colts’ O line has protected their passer effectively this year. One wrinkle in the mix is that Ehlinger is much more of a run threat than Wentz.

Can the Colts still win and cover? No one has stopped Jonathon Taylor, and while Vegas has shown improvement in rush defense, they have not faced anyone like him. Of note, the Raiders are the very worst red-zone defenders in the NFL. The Raiders’ pass defense has been solid in yards allowed but they do allow more than their share of points, they don’t pressure Qbs especially well, and they don’t create many turnovers.

The Colts defense has shown real improvement, giving up more than 17 points only once in their last 6 games, while facing very stiff competition. The Raiders are a pass-first offense, with Derek Carr the focus. Carr is banged up, which might account for the significant drop in passing yards over the last few games. The Raiders will again be missing Waller again this week. The Colts don’t pressure Qbs so much which is good because the Raiders are middle of the road in protecting Carr. The Colts are very adept at creating turnovers, while the Raiders give up the ball a lot.

Much has been made of the loss of Wentz, but the Raiders are the more depleted of the two teams. The Colts have been terrific against the spread this year, and overpowering of late. I’m betting on the Colts to again win and cover.

There is very little good news on the injury front for a very disrupted WFT. Heinicke is beaten up and in the dog house, and top running back Gibson is out. This is a blow for a team struggling to put meat on the table (so to speak). The Football Team is up against a surging Eagles team, winners of 5 of 6 games, and needing a win to solidify their playoff hopes.

The Eagles are top in the NFL with the run. Howard is questionable, but with the other backs and Hurts in the equation, they should be in good form. The Football Team is 8th in the league against the run but very much in freefall lately, allowing over 150 yards rushing in their last three games. Other than QB pressure, Washington is very poor against the pass. While the Eagles don’t rely on their passing game, Hurts has seen his QB stats climb lately.

The Football team will have their hands full against an increasingly tough Eagles defense. Only 1 team in the last 8 has run for +100 yards against them, and they are top 10 in all of the pass defense categories other than sacks. They have been very stingy in points allowed, averaging just 15 over the last three games.

In “what have you done lately” terms, this game is all Eagles. They beat the Football Team by 10 points 2 weeks ago, and I can’t see that Washington is in any better shape now. Barring a major underestimation by the Eagles, this game should be theirs for the taking. Take Philadelphia to win and cover.

Pelicans/Bucks

Tough spot for New Orleans going against one of the top teams in the league. Milwaukee has started to hit their stride with five straight wins, the last being a 136-118 beatdown of Orlando. Expect a similar final score in this game.

The Bucks are averaging 121.6 points during the five-game win streak while allowing only 108.4. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a real tear, averaging 32.3 points and 10 rebounds the last three games while shooting 56.3 percent from the field. 

The Bucks’ bench has contributed at least 36 points in each of the last three games, so it’s been a very well-rounded effort from the defending champs at the offensive end of late.

New Orleans has played some of its best ball of late, winning five of its last six games. They just beat Cleveland, who had several players out, 108-104 in their last game. But the Pelicans are dealing with several absences of their own right now. Three players are in health and safety protocols. Brandon Ingram, who generally carries the scoring load, is questionable with an Achilles injury.

Milwaukee will remember losing to New Orleans in overtime two weeks ago and be out for revenge. The Pelicans are just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as a road underdog. 10* NBA PLAYBOOK on MILWAUKEE

Utah/Ohio State

Utah won't be rolling over here. The Utes have won six straight and all signs point to a possible big upset here as well. Most recently Utah beat Oregon 38-10 in the PAC 12 Championship, while Ohio State enters off a 42-27 loss to Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite. 

Utah has lost its last two bowl games, putting an added motivation incentive here. Overall the Utes averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 20.9. QB Cameron Rising had 2,279 yards, 18 TD's and only five INT's.

With their nine-game win streak in the rear-view mirror, I believe the Buckeyes are ripe for the picking tonight. Ohio State and CJ Stroud average 45.5 PPG, while allowing 20.9. 

The Utes have won of the best running games in the country, averaging more than 200 yards per game. The Buckeyes have been great defensively (again) all season, but note that they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS loss in which it conceded 40 or more points in.

This one comes down to the wire, so let's grab the points! Utah 10* GAME OF MONTH.