The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I love the surging Eagles to catch the Saints a little “flat footed” after their week off. Philadelphia once again defied the odds last weekend with a win in Chicago, as the Bears banged a FG off the cross bar as time expired for the victory. New Orleans went 13-3 in the regular season, but I think that “rest” will lead to “rust” here. The Eagles have been in must win mode for weeks now and that mentality, along with the experience from actually winning the Super Bowl last season, will once again keep this game extremely competitive in my opinion. While the Eagles’ offense dealt with plenty of issues this year, the defense was once again a strength and I think the unit is an overlooked factor here. Note as well that this is an in-season “revenge” game, as Philly was destroyed 48-7 in New Orleans back in Week 11. 

The pick: Nick Foles is under center this time for the Eagles though and I think the experience and momentum that he brings to the table is big as well. Take it for what you will as well, but Philly is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after four or more SU victories, while New Orleans is just 3-4 ATS as a home favorite this season and and just 1-4 ATS following a divisional contest. I won’t call for the outright, but look for this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: San Antonio took the first game of this home and home set 154-147 in double OT on Thursday. Clearly its payback time for the Thunder on their own floor. LeMarcus Aldridge exploded for a career-high 56 points, nine boards, four assists and four blocks to lead San Antonio’s victory, but clearly I’m not expecting a repeat performance here. The Spurs are just 9-11 on the road this year. Russell Westbrook had 24 points, 13 boards and 24 assists in the setback on Thursday for the Thunder. OKC is 10-9 ATS at home this year, but the immediate revenge factor swings the scales in favor of the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are just 2-4 ATS in their last six after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, while OKC is already 5-1 ATS this year in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. Lay the points.

10* DEMOLITION

The set-up: Andrew Luck and the Colts have sure looked impressive over the last month, but I believe their story comes to and tonight. The Chiefs can’t play a lick of defense, but they haven’t had to with their dynamic offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, who set offensive records this year. With a week off to focus and game-plan though, I absolutely expect the Chiefs’ to also “step up” their game defensively as well. Indianapolis averaged 27.1 PPG, while allowing 21.5. The Chiefs averaged 35.3 PPG though and allowed 26.3. 

The pick: Mahomes though is the difference maker in my opinion. He finished with 5,097 passing yards with a sharp 50/12 TD/INT. Take it for what you will as well, but despite the Colts recent “up-tick” in play, they’re still only 14-17 ATS in their last 31 as an underdog, while Kansas City is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 after scoring 30 points or more in its last game. In my estimation, everything points to the Colts running out gas this weekend. I’m laying they points.

10* play

The set-up: LeBron James got injured the Lakers would go on to predictably lost three straight. LA has looked better of late after winning two in a row, but I think that an immediate return to mediocrity is in the cards. Kyle Kuzma had a career-high 41 points the Lakers latest home win over Detroit. LA is averaging 112.2 PPG, while allowing 110.8. I think Kuzma though will struggle to duplicate his best performance ever as a pro, especially in this difficult road venue vs. the Jazz, who have “upped” their game on the defensive end of the floor of late, allowing just 100.7 PPG over their last four. Utah comes in on top form having won three of its last four and I look for it take advantage of this favorable matchup.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games and 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing road records, while LA is just 2-6-1 ATS In its last nine following a SU win and only 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 following an ATS victory. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* DEMOLITION

The set-up: Wright State somehow managed to take both games vs. Northern Kentucky last year, but I think the Norse will bounce back this season and take the first matchup this time around. Wright State comes in off an 89-73 win over Oakland, while NKU destroyed Detroit 95-73 last time out. The Norse are balanced on both sides of the ball and are the much “deeper” team this season, note that six players would score in double figures in the win over the Titans. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wright State is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while NKU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after a victory in which it scored 95 points or more in. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* DEMOLITION

The set-up: Youngstown State will be gunning for an upset here after its 76-51 road win over Milwaukee in its latest contest. UIC enters off a tough 66-64 loss at home to IUPUI in its latest action. The Penguins play with revenge here as they’ve lost four straight in the series, including a 100-75 road loss last February 8th. Youngstown State averages 76.6 PPG and it allows 80.3. UIC averages only 75.6 PPG, while allowing 77.1. 

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Youngstown State is already 3-1 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after playing two consecutive road games as the underdog, while UIC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. I believe that these teams are much more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Combine the situational and motivational factors working in favor of Youngstown State and an outright win isn’t out of the question here. That said, I’m grabbing the points.

10* play

The set-up: Villanova has won three straight and I think it carries that momentum over here into another solid victory at home against the surprising Red Storm, who have started the year 14-1, including conference wins over Marquette and Georgetown. The Red Storm have been playing over their heads, including the thrilling 97-94 OT win over Georgetown. Can anyone say “letdown” spot though? The defending champs will be out to send a message here in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Villanova is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 at home and 35-16 ATS in its last 51 vs. teams with winning records, while St. John’s is still just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five on the road. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: I won with Alabama last year and I think the Tide are going to roll again this season as well. This is the fourth straight year these teams have faced each other in the big game. Last year the Tide won 24-6. Clemson does come in off a nice 30-3 win over the Irish last Saturday, but the step up in competition on both sides of the ball will prove to be too much again for the Tigers again in my estimation. Clemson freshman QB Trevor Lawrence looked solid with 327 yards passing, three TD’s and no INT’s. The Tigers are no slouches defensively either, ranked fifth in allowing just 12.9 PPG. The Tide pulled away for a tougher than expected 45-34 win over Oklahoma last weekend. QB Tua Tagovailoa had 318 yards passing and four TD’s. The Tide dominate on both sides of the ball though, ranked second with 47.7 PPG and 12th in yards allowed per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 1-4 ATS this year in non-conference games, while Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after falling to cover the spread in two of its last three games. This has and likely always will be a “bad matchup” for Clemson. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Hornets are only 7-8 ATS on the road this year, but they’re 9-6 SU. Charlotte enters off an embarrassing 122-84 home loss to the Mavericks in its latest action and it’ll be out to atone for that pathetic effort. And a date vs. the Nuggets is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track as the Hornets have won four of the last five in this series, including a 113-107 home victory in the first matchup this year back on December 7th. The Hornets average 112.9 PPG and they allow 111.4. Denver averages 110.3 PPG and it allows 105.1. 

The pick: But this is a matchup which Charlotte has excelled in and after its recent poor effort, I expect it to give a full four-quarter effort tonight. Additionally note that the Hornets are already 12-4 ATS this year after having lost two of their last three games. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: FSU is 12-1 and Virginia is 12-0. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but I definitely think that the Seminoles can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Seminoles enter off an 87-76 win over Winthrop, while Virginia smashed Marshall 100-64 at home in its most recent action. Overall FSU averages 82.3 PPG, while allowing 68.4. The Cavaliers average 74.7 PPG and they allow 51.4. 

The pick: The numbers though support our play on the visitors today, as note that FSU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games with a home win percentage of greater than .600, while Virginia is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Jazz are the “better” team, but the Cavs are the “hungrier” team tonight. Utah enters off a 122-116 road loss in Toronto on Tuesday, while Cleveland comes in off a blowout loss at home to the Heat. Utah’s achilles heel forever has been its play on the road and that’s been no different this season either, going just 9-12-1 ATS away from friendly confines thus far. Overall the Jazz average 107.7 PPG and they allow 106.1. The Cavs average 102 PPG and they allow 111.4. Cleveland has lost seven straight though and clearly it’ll be risking life and limb to try and reverse that trend.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is already just 3-5 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games, while Cleveland is 8-5 ATS this season following a SU home loss. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Dons come in at 12-2 and St. Mary’s is 9-6. The Gaels started slowly by losing their first four, but they’ve bounced back to go 9-6 to this point and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Tanner Krebs led the way in St. Mary’s most recent win with 20 points off six three-pointers. The Gaels come in averaging 113.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 99.7 points per 100 possessions. San Fran may be 12-2, but it comes in off a 73-71 road loss to UC Santa Barbara. San Fran is scoring 107.8 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 94.2 per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win of 20 points or more, while San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. Clearly the outright is possible, but I’m grabbing the points.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams that are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and up and down the line collide in the Sugar Bowl in Atlanta on Tuesday night and I’m expecting a war until the final moments. Georgia comes into this one still hung over and miserable after its crushing defeat in the SEC Championship game to Alabama. This is a consolation prize for the Bulldogs, while Texas will be looking to make the most of this moment, having not been in a New Year’s Six bowl game since 2014. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the underdogs in my opinion (note that Texas head coach Tom Herman is 12-2-1 ATS as an underdog, with nine outright victories.) 

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Georgia is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a two weeks or more layoff and as a ten points or more favorite, while Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine after a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: UCF enters at 12-0 and while it may leave here with a blemish on its record, I expect the Golden Knights to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Despite losing starting QB McKenzie Milton to injury, UCF would still go on to post a two TD win over Memphis. LSU comes in off a deflating loss to Texas A&M in its latest outing. In fact, the Tigers would play through seven OT’s,but still come up short vs. the Aggies. Players could barely stand by the end of the game they were so exhausted. 

The pick: The Knights looked just fine with Darriel Mack under center in their win over Memphis, throwing for 348 yards and two TD’s. Take it for what you will as well, but the Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog, while LSU is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Missouri was 8-4 in regular season play, but just 4-4 in SEC action. Oklahoma State squeaked into the Bowls with a 6-6 regular season record, including going 3-6 in the Big 12. Overall the Tigers are averaging 36.9 PPG and they’re allowing 24.4. Missouri QB Drew Lock finished with 3,125 passing yards and a 25:8 TD/INT. Oklahoma State took the foot off the gas in its final game after securing bowl eligibility in its second to last game of the season in an impressive 45-41 win over WVU. QB Taylor Cornelius had 3,642 passing yards and a 28:11 TD/INT.

The pick: The Cowboys’ offense is the difference maker for me in this one though. Oklahoma State averages just under 500 total yards per game and 38.4 points. Overall they’re allowing 32.4, but with extra time off to prepare, I definitely expect Oklahoma State to keep this one competitive. Take it for what you will as well, but OKS is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Missouri is only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. Grab the points.

10* BOWL GAME OF YEAR

The set-up: Atlanta has been playing well of late, most recently it defeated the Hawks 111-108 on Saturday. Indiana enters off a very satisfying 125-88 home win over the Pistons and I think it’ll get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. This is a big time revenge game as well, as Indiana has taken seven straight in the series, including both this year and last week’s 129-121 Boxing Day victory. But Atlanta is now playing its best ball of the year, having won five of its last six. Indiana has won four straight, but note that it’s still a terrible 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off a win by ten points or more vs. a division rival.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is already 9-5 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 7-5 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Grab all those points!

10* play

The set-up: Stanford comes in on top form having won three straight. Pittsburgh comes in a bit deflated in my opinion though after falling to Clemson in the ACC Championship. Stanford’s final win of the year came over California. Pittsburgh relies on a strong run game and defense. Stanford does as well, but an injury to star RB Bryce Love shifted the focus of the offense this year to QB KJ Costello, who had 3,435 passing yards. 

The pick: The Cardinal closed strong and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Note that Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine bowl games. Pittsburgh had a ton of momentum, but the humbling loss to Clemson carries over (note that the Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.) Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Neither team is doing very well this year. Montana state is 4-7, while Northern Arizona is just 2-9. But after beating Southern Utah 92-62 this past Saturday, I think Montana State will take a step back here. Overall Montana State averages 72.7 PPG, while allowing 81.9. Northern Arizona averages 72.1 PPG and it allows 81.1. Most recently the Lumberjacks fell 86-73 to Montana last weekend. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Montana State is just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 after covering the spread in its previous game, while Northern Arizona is still 13-9 ATS in its last 22 at home and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after five or more consecutive losses. I think the “hungrier” teams finds a way to get the job done here. Play on Northern Arizona.

10* play

The set-up: The Browns are looking to play spoiler and they come in with plenty of momentum. Outright victory?! It’s not out of the question! In fact, Cleveland already upset the Ravens at home 12-9 in OT earlier in the year. Browns’ rookie QB Baker Mayfield had 284 passing yards and three TD’s vs. the Bengals last week. Cleveland’s defense dominated as well, giving up just 209 total yards. Note that Cleveland has in fact won five of six overall. The Ravens are the better team on paper, but I think they get pushed to the brink here after upset win over the Chargers in LA last weekend. 

The pick: The Ravens have struggled against the division as well, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the AFC North. Note that Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home as well. The Browns on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in the last six after an ATS win. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Lipscomb comes in off a 91-66 win over Vermont last Saturday to improve to 9-3, but I think the Bison will struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue vs. the Power 5 opponent. Clemson comes in at 9-3 as well and having won three straight, most recently a 78-68 victory over South Carolina. Despite having failed to cover in five of their last six, I think the Tigers will take full advantage of this favorable match-up. Marcquise Reed is back in the line-up after missing three games and he had 20 points in the win over the Gamecocks. I think he’s a difference maker and I believe he’ll be a match-up issue for the Bison.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference home games on the heels of a three games or more unbeaten streak. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Hornets were upset at home last night by the Mavs and I think they’ll be ripe for the picking here as well. The Rockets comes in off three straight victories, including over the Celtics most recently. Houston plays with revenge here as well after the Pelicans took the first game in the season series 131-112 in mid October. 

The pick: New Orleans is also just 1-5 already in the second game of the back-to-back scenario this season. Note that the Pelicans are allowing a whopping 124.2 points per game in the second game of the back to back this year. This one is going to be a blowout. Play on Houston.

10* play

The set-up: After losing to Duke, Kentucky has won nine of its last ten. The Wildcats enter off a win over UNC last weekend, but I think they’ll finally have a letdown here. Louisville looks to defend home court and it comes in with plenty of momentum itself with three straight victories. To say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement as well as the Wildcats have won five of the past six in the series. These teams are clearly very evenly matched, but after the extended stretch of great play, including the win over the Tar Heels last weekend, I definitely feel that this sets up as a letdown spot finally for Kentucky.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Kentucky is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, while Louisville is already 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year. I’m banking on home floor being the difference. Play on Louisville.

10* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. The Cavs come in with zero momentum after losing three of their last four, including to Virginia Tech most recently. The Gamecocks upset the Wolverines in last year’s Outback Bowl and they won their final game of the year over Akron (28-3.) “You get a bunch of bowl gear, and if you lose the game, you damn sure don’t want to wear any of it,” SC coach Will Muschamp said recently. “I haven’t put anything on from the Birmingham Bowl, I’ll tell you that. …When you win the bowl game, it just makes everybody feel better about what’s going on, where the program is headed. …Our guys understand that coming off a win gives you a little more confidence in your program about where you are. But the 2018 team will close its book in Charlotte.” Virginia opened at 6-2, but the Cavs have stumbled unbelievably down the stretch and I think that carries over here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. Virginia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing on three or more weeks rest on a neutral field. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Austin Peay comes in “under the radar” here. The Governors have won six straight and they’re averaging 78.1 PPG, while allowing 75.4. Austin Peay is lead by Terry Taylor who is averaging 17.8 points and 8.3 boards per game. Arkansas has won six of eight, but it’s not too hard to imagine the home side looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Overall Arkansas is averaging 82.4 PPG and allowing 70.7. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Austin Peay is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, while the Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. As stated off the top, I think the Governors come in “under the radar” and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do indeed feel that the stage is se for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra time, I believe the prudent move is to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals. Ottawa enters off a 4-0 home loss to Washington, while the Isles return home after a 3-1 road win over the Stars. Overall the Sens average 3.19 GPG and they allow 3.89. Note that Ottawa goaltender Craig Anderson has a very respectable 2.52 lifetime GAA vs. the Isles in 18 match ups. The Isles are averaging 2.83 GPG and they’re allowing 2.71. NY net minder Tomas Greiss is 3-1 with a 3.48 GAA lifetime vs. Ottawa.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Ottawa is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four when playing with three or more days rest, while New York is already 0-3 (-3.1 units) this season in the same position. Lay the price, grab the 1.5 goals.

10* play

The set-up: Utah has won three of four, while Philadelphia saw a two-game win steak end in a OT loss at Boston on X-Mas Day. Philadelphia looks to bounce back here in this difficult venue: “I look forward to watching us evolve,” 76ers’ head coach Brett Brown assessed last night. “We will learn from this. We leave disappointed, but I think there’s lots you’re going to point to and say it was a hell of a job, and we lost to a team that’s very tough…. The fact that the starting five for the large majority of the game was excellent. I though the spirit was great, the energy was great, but we need to continue to grow our bench, and to work with our starters to finish out the game.” Maintaining focus for the Jazz vs. the Eastern Conference opponent is a concern though in my opinion. 

The pick: Because take it for what you will, but the Jazz are still a poor 3-7 ATS in their last ten following a victory, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU loss. Grab the points, expect a competitive battle.

10* play

The set-up: In what is expected to be a very low-scoring defensive battle, I like the Horned Frogs to pull away down the stretch for the victory. TCU was 3-5, but it closed the season strong by winning three of its final four, including a 31-24 home win over OK State in its regular season finale to make it to 6-6. I think the Frogs carry that momentum over here. Cal on the other hand maybe peaked too early, as it had won four of five before a loss to Stanford in its finale (a disastrous 10-6 setback.) Cal averages 22.8 PPG and it allows 21.2. TCU average 24.7 PPG and it allows 24.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cal is just 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games, while TCU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a win in which it scored 30 points or more and following a two weeks or more break. Play on the Horned Frogs.

10* play

The set-up: Simply put, I don’t think that home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. The Nets once again come in under the radar here after winning eight of their last nine. The Hornets look poised for another letdown here after their two-game win streak was broke in a 119-103 loss in Boston last time out. Overall the Hornets average 110.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 108.2 per 100 possessions. The Nets average 109.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 110.2 per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will thought, but Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while Brooklyn is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 following a SU loss of ten or more points. Kemba Walker is doing a hell of a job to keep the Hornets relevant, but I think he’ll stumble in this now difficult road venue. Play on the Nets.

10* play

The set-up: This is a consolation game in the Diamond Head Classic and I like the Rhode Island Rams to put the foot on the gas and run the home side Warriors off the floor once its all said and done. Hawaii enters off a 70-62 win over Colorado in the consolation bracket Sunday, while the Rams beat Charlotte 75-61 in their consolation game on Sunday. The Rams feature the more senior players and more talented line-up though and I think this depth will be the difference in the outcome of this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 tournament games, while Hawaii is a disappointing 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home underdog or pick. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I got down on this one early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I think the high-powered Bucks are going to lay the hammer down from start to finish. The Bucks comes in off a 94-87 road loss in Miami, a setback which snapped a four-game win streak. Overall Milwaukee averages 116.9 PPG and it allows 108.5. The Knicks come in on the other end of the spectrum, having lost four straight, most recently a listless setback at home to the Hawks. The Knicks average 108.6 PPG and they allow 115.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 0-5 ATS in its last five at home, while Milwaukee is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams playing out their respective seasons collide on Monday night. If these clubs could have a “do over,” they’d clearly both jump on it. Regardless, I think the Broncos will do just enough to gut out the win and cover. The Raiders have nothing to play for here and another loss will only help them in the draft next year. Raiders’ hired Jon Gruden on the off-season last year and his first season has been a disaster. Broncos’ head coach Vance Joseph is expected to be fired after his Week 17 matchup with the Chargers, but he’s not going down without a fight: “Absolutely. We want to win,” Joseph said on Monday. “These next two games are important for us to finish the right way. That part is very important to me. It’s about winning. That’s what it’s about. It’s not about losing, it’s about winning. That’s very important to our football team and our coaches.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is already 2-0 ATS this year after a loss by 3 points or less, while Oakland is a terrible 4-8 ATS as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.

10* play

The set-up: The Pelicans will be eager to get back into the winners circle after a 112-104 road loss to the Lakers on Friday. The Kings enter off a very satisfying 102-99 home win over the Grizzlies and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. New Orleans has dominated this series of late, including a 149-129 home victory in the first meeting this year on October 19th. Overall the Pelicans average 116.3 PPG and they allow 115.2. Sacramento is averaging 114.9 PPG and it’s allowing 116.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as a road favorite of six points or less. I’m banking on the Pelicans dominance of this series continuing. Play on New Orleans.

10* play

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: The Dons are 11-1 and the Cardinal are just 6-4 (SU), but I think the value is on the undervalued underdog in this one. The Cardinal have played a difficult non-conference schedule to this point, with three of its setbacks vs. AP Top 25 teams. Stanford though comes in playing its best ball of the young season with two straight wins, most recently a 78-73 defeat of San Jose State. The Dons have beaten Harvard and Cal, but beyond that its opposition has been much weaker to this point. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite in the 7 to 12.5 points range. while Stanford is 4-1-1 ATS in is last six as a road underdog in the 7 to 12.5 points range and 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: Washington is still in the playoff hunt after holding on for a win against the Jaguars in Week 15, but the Redskins’ chances are still slim, especially considering the significant injuries. The Titans have won three straight over the Jets, Jags and Giants and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here as well. Not only are the Skins down to their third string QB, but CB Joshua Holsey was lost for the season in last week’s narrow victory. Tennessee on the other hand is getting steady play from QB Marcus Mariota, while getting superb play from RB Derrick Henry. The Titans though are now No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense after allowing just one TD over their past 12 quarters of play.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after allowing 14 points or less in its last game, while Tennessee is 4-2 ATS at home this year and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10*

The set-up: Mike Norvell is looking to lead the 8-5 Memphis Tigers to their first bowl win since 2014. Norvell has taken his team to two other bowl games, but he’s come up short each time. Wake Forest finished 6-6 and it could just be happy to be here after winning both the Military Bowl in 2016 and the Belk Bowl last year. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key offensive players. Wake Forest is likely without the services of Greg Dortch, who led the ACC with 1,750 all purpose yards, but who suffered a finger injury in the Deacons’ 59-7 rout of Duke in their finale (if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% health). Memphis averages 43.6 PPG, but it’ll be without star RB Darrell Henderson, who will move onto the NFL now. Regardless, the Tigers are still loaded with talent and I have a hard time seeing the Deacons keeping pace down the stretch.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while Wake Forest is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams above the .500 mark. Lay the points and expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: The Memphis Grizzlies are in a “free fall” right now and I think the hungry home side takes advantage. The Grizz have lost four straight and six of their last seven. The Kings enter off back-to-back losses as well, over the Wolves and Thunder, so they won’t be lacking any motivation here either. Memphis has been dealing with injury issues again to guard Mike Conley, as well as to forward Omri Casspi. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Western Conference, while the Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when playing on one days rest and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams with losing road records. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Play on the Kings.

10*

The set-up: Oregon has only played one true road game this year and it was a 65-61 loss to Houston on December 1st. And that came on the heels of a shocking 89-84 home loss to Texas Southern. Bears fans can empathize. Baylor enters off an upset 59-58 home loss to Stephen F. Austin. Overall Baylor has been the better defensive team this year and I think that’ll be the main difference in the outcome of this one (note that the Bears are giving up just 63.4 PPG overall and they’ve actually held six of their ten opponents to 61 points or fewer.) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Oregon is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU win. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10*

The set-up: Both teams return to bowl action after missing last year. Both teams have a freshman QB under center today. Both were forced into the starters role in the middle of the campaign for different reasons. WMU is averaging 33.2 PPG, while allowing 33.2. Kaleb Eleby helped WMU end a three-gam losing streak with a 28-21 win over NIU in the regular season finale. Eleby finished with 285 passing yards. BYU is averaging only 25.4 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end, allowing just 21.7. Zach Wilson finished with 1,261 yards passing with a 10/6 TD:INT over six starts for the Cougars. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest, while WMU is 8-4 ATS in is last 12 following a home win. This one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: South Florida opened the season 7-0, but it then lost five straight to finish 7-5. With a chance to erase the disappointing second half with a third straight bowl victory, I think the Bulls will pull off the minor upset today. Marshall last played on December 1st, a 41-20 loss to the Hokies which snapped a three-game win streak. A three week layoff isn’t going to help the Herds’ chemistry. USF will be leaning heavily on the RB duo of Jordan Cronkrite and Johnny Ford, shoe combined for over 1,800 rushing yards and 17 TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite and already 0-2 ATS this year when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest and 3-1 ATS in its last four following a loss of 17 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Ohio is 7-3 and the Boilermakers are 6-5. The Bobcats come in off a narrow 63-61 win over Detroit on Saturday. Teyvion Kirk finished with 16 points and seven boards for Ohio, which would go on to outscore Detroit 30-20 in the paint. Purdue comes into this one reeling, loser of five of its last seven after a sharp 4-0 start. Most recently the Boilermakers fell to Texas and Notre Dame. Clearly the competition has been stiff, but I do think that the door is open for Ohio to keep this game competitive as well. Note that the Boilermakers shot just 9 of 29 from range in the loss to the Irish.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a win by six points or less, while Purdue is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more SU losses. Grab the point and expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams are pretty terrible. Grand Canyon is 5-5, while Northern Iowa is 4-6. The Antelopes though are 0-2 in true road games, while the Panther are 2-0 at home. Northern Iowa average 67 PPG and it allows 71. Grand Canyon is averaging 75 PPG and it’s allowing 72. 

The pick: On paper coach Marjele’s Antelopes have the advantage. But I thick Grand Canyon’s numbers are skewed by the level of competition to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Northern Iowa is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a two games SU/ATS losing streak. Play on the home side.

10* play

The set-up: SDSU lost its final three games, but it comes in healthy to this one and it’s loaded with talent and experience. The bottom line is I think that the Aztecs are the more “complete” team through all three phases. Ohio comes in off two straight wins to end the regular season over Buffalo and Akron. The problem for the Bobcats’ high-powered ground attack, is that SDSU’s strength on the defensive side of the ball is against he run. In fact the Aztecs rank fourth nationally in stopping the run. In total SDSU allows just 94.5 YPG rushing. SDSU death with injury issues all year to key offensive pieces, but they’re both back healthy here (QB Christian Chapman and RB Juwan Washington). These two will have something to prove in this bowl.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SDSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a double digit fav, while Ohio is only 3-5 ATS in its last eight after a win by 21 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Spurs have gotten back on track of late, most recently destroying the 76ers 123-96 at home on Monday. The Magic return home after knocking off the Jazz 96-89 in Mexico City on Saturday. Note though that this is a big time “in-season” revenge game for SA after the Magic upset them at home 117-110 back on November 4th. SA averages 110.6 PPG and it concedes 110.5. Orlando averages only 104 PPG, while allowing 106.7. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SA is already 6-1 ATS this year in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Orlando is only 14-26 ATS in its last 40 off an upset win as an underdog. Play on the Spurs.

10* play

The set-up: Buffalo is 10-0 and Syracuse is 7-3. The Orange will be motivated to snap the Bulls perfect record and I think the home side will deliver the goods. The Bulls return many of the players from a team that went 27-9 last year and which upset No. 3 Arizona in the NCAA Tourney. The Bulls average 112.5 points per 100 possessions. The Orange average 109.9 points per 100 possessions.

The pick: Buffalo has been playing at an extremely high level, but there’s no doubt that this is a difficult road venue. Looking a little closer and we discover that the Bulls are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after eight or more consecutive wins, while Syracuse is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think LBJ and company will bounce back after a 128-110 road loss in the nation’s capital on Sunday. The Nets on the other hand look ready for a letdown in my estimation after their big 144-127 win over the Hawks on Sunday. The 144 points posted was impressive, but they 127 conceded to the ATL is unacceptable and won’t lead to success over the long-term obviously. LA averages 113.4 PPG and it allows 111.6. The Nets may have won four in a row, but they’re average 111 PPG and allowing 111.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Brooklyn is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while LA is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

10* play

The set-up: Clearly the Thunder are the better team and I’m not going to try and convince you otherwise. I simply feel that the high-powered home side will get caught classically looking past its lowly non-conference opponent this evening. The Bulls come in with confidence as well after a big 98-93 road win in San Antonio on Saturday. The Thunder on the other hand look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their 110-104 home win over the Clippers. Chicago will also be playing with confidence that it has in fact already beaten OKC this year, 114-112 at home back on December 7. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up as more of a competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games while OKC is just 8-17 ATS in its last 25 in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Nick Foles is back under center for the Eagles and with nothing to lose except another game, I like the defending champs to give the Rams everything they can handle this weekend. Philly lost 29-23 in OT to Dallas last weekend, while the Rams look very susceptible after their poor 15-6 road loss in Chicago. The Eagles only average 21.6 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by allowing 22.7. The Rams average 32.7 PPG, but they allow 24.1. 

The pick: After their red hot start, the Rams appear to be running out of gas. Especially RB Todd Gurley. With the offense becoming more one-dimensional than ever, LA could struggle to post the same offensive efficiency down the stretch. Take it for what you will as well, but the Eagles are still 4-2 ATS in their last six on the road. I’m grabbing all those points!

10* play

The set-up: I like the Bears to take care of business at home today. The Packers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 34-20 win over hapless Atlanta last weekend, while Chicago enters off a hard-fought and impressive 15-6 home win over the high-flying Rams. If LA couldn’t move the ball last week, I have a hard time seeing Aaron Rodgers and his patchwork unit posting much production either. Overall the Packers average 24.2 PPG and they allow 23.6. The Bears are averaging 27.6 PPG and they’re allowing just 19. That ranks third in the league. The Packers are simply too one-dimensional to fool this talented Bears defense. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay is already only 1-3 ATS this year as a road underdog, while Chicago is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home as a favorite. With a chance to end the Packers’ season, look for the home side to lay the hammer down. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great for an outright upset victory for the hungry Clippers. Oklahoma City looks ripe for the picking here after its 109-98 loss in Denver just last night. The Clippers are averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 109.6 per 100 possessions. The Thunder lead the league in most defensive categories, but the unit looked “gassed” last night and I think it’ll struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in revenging a loss vs. an opponent in which it scored 110 or more points in, while the Thunder are still only 40-47 ATS in their last 87 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Tulane was 6-6 and UL Lafayette finished 7-6. The Ragin Cajuns lost 30-19 to App State in the Sun Belt title game, but I think Lafayette will keep this one close. These teams played in 2016 and the Green Wave came from behind to post the 41-39 OT win. The Green Wave though average just 25.7 PPG. Tulane struggles against the pass defensively as well, allowing 265.2 YPG. UL Lafayette QB Andre Nunez has 2,136 passing yards and a 64.4 percent completion percentage. Overall Lafayette allows 33.7 PPG, but the unit catches a big break here facing the Green Wave’s impotent offensive attack. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UL Lafayette is 4-0 ATS in its last four after a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games, while Tulane is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more weeks of rest. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: FAU comes in off a 68-64 win over Mercer to improve to 72. The Owls average 77.8 PPG and they allow 68.4. Jailyn Ingram averages 19.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 apg. Arkansas State comes in hungry after falling 72-56 to Minnesota this past Saturday. Overall the Red Wolves are averaging 74.9 PPG and allowing 79.1, but a lot of that has to do with the level of competition in the early going in my opinion. Ty Cockfield averages 21.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.1 spg. I think home court will prove to be big here.

The pick: The Red Wolves are the “hungrier” team. Take it for what you will as well, but FAU is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after holding its previous opponent to 65 points or less, while Arkansas State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after failing to score 58 or more points in its previous outing. Play on Arkansas State.

10*

The set-up: The Eastern Washington Eagles are just 1-6 and the San Francisco Dons are 8-1. Clearly this is a major mismatch, but I think the home side is going to get caught looking past its lowly opponent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the Eagles to sneak in through. Eastern Washington has lost three straight, most recently a 74-67 setback to NDSU, led by 25 points from Jacob Davidson. Overall the Eagles average 62.9 PPG. The Dons average 80.2 PPG and they come in off a very satisfying 79-60 win over the Cal Golden Bears. Can anyone say letdown spot? From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for the underdog.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more straight road losses, while the Dons are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of pick.

10* play

The set-up: Clearly the Mavs are the better team, but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The Hawks come in with plenty of momentum as well, as they broke a four-game slide with a 106-98 win over the Nuggets on Saturday. John Collins had 30 points and 12 boards in the win. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already 5-2 ATS this year after playing two straight at home and 4-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge an in-season loss to an opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: Colorado’s been rolling (7-1 overall and five straight wins) and because of that, I believe it’ll get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. The Lobos are 4-3 and they’ll be focused and eager to get back on track after back-to-back setbacks at the hands of New Mexico State and St. Mary’s. 

The pick: Colorado is about to being a stretch of six straight games on the road and note that the Buffs are just 9-26 on the road the last three seasons. Take it for what you will as well, but the Buffs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite or pick. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Sacramento was a bad team last year and clearly it’s made big strides this season though. The Kings are 13-12, while the once mighty Bulls are just 6-21. Chicago has dealt with injury issues before the season even started though, so expectations going in were low. The Bulls have been getting healthier and they’ve looked better of late and I think they’ll catch this young Kings’ team flat-footed as they finish off their lengthy Eastern swing. From a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the hungry home side.

The pick: Take it for what you as well, but Sacramento is already just 2-4 ATS this season after covering three of its last four against the spread, while Chicago is already 8-5 ATS this season as a home underdog. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: The Pelicans have dominated this series of late and I think that’ll again be the case here (won three straight in the series, including a 118-103 road win in Detroit last Feb.) While the Pelicans are just 5-8 ATS on the road, they’re a solid 7-6 SU overall. The Pelicans average 118.1 PPG and they allow 115.9. Detroit’s lost three straight and it’s just 6-8 ATS at home this year. The Pistons average 109.4 PPG and they allow 109.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 40-31 ATS in its last 71 after having lost two of its last three games SU, while Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: While the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I’m going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Both teams come in off victories. St. Louis enters off a satisfying 1-0 road win over the Jets, while Vancouver comes in off a 5-3 home win over Nashville. The Canucks average 2.84 GPG and they allow 3.42. St. Louis is averaging 2.85 GPG and it’s allowing 3.22. 

The pick: These two horrible teams are pretty evenly matched, but note that Vancouver is 3-1 (+2.9 units) in its last four after a win by two goals or more, while St. Louis is just 3-4 (-2 units) this season after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. Play on the Canucks on the puck line.

10* play

The set-up: The Colts play with revenge here after falling 37-34 in OT at home to the Texans in Week 4. Houston’s been almost unbeatable since that game, but Andrew Luck and Indianapolis has made great strides this year on both sides of the ball. The Colts were stymied 6-0 last week vs. Jacksonville, but there’s no reason not to think that Luck and company can’t bounce back and return to their normal form. The Texans continue to find ways to win, but I think they’ll have their hands full today vs. a Colts team that will be desperate for an upset and to avenge the earlier setback. These teams are very evenly matched.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last five in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Houston is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after two straight SU home victories. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Kings come in off a very satisfying 129-110 win over the Cavs just last night and I think they’ll stumble in the second game of the back to back on the road. The Pacers also played and won last night (112-90 in Orlando), but clearly home court advantage in the second game of the back-to-back scenario favors Indiana greatly this evening. Note as well that Indiana plays with revenge after falling 111-110 in the first match-up of the season just last week.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is still only 10-17 ATS in its last 27 after covering five or six of the last seven ATS, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five after falling to cover four or five of the last six ATS. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Thunder are 16-7 overall, while the Bulls are just 5-20. I think the hungry home side though will catch the Thunder complacent and flat footed Thunder team which comes in off an epic come from behind 114-112 win over Brooklyn in their latest action, a game which saw Paul George explode for 47 points and a game winning three-pointer. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Bulls are terrible, but they’ll be eager to break a seven-game slide, most recently falling 96-90 to Indiana. Lauri Markkanen played will in his second game with 21 points and ten boards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is still only 4-5 ATS in its last nine asa  road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Chicago is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 as a home dog in the same points range. I think OKC finally has a letdown here and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, this one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points.

Bulls GOM. 

The set-up: Jacksonville plays with revenge. It’s also looking to put a nail in the coffin to the Titans season with a victory here. The Jags slowed won the Colts in last week’s 6-0 win. They came up short at home in September vs. the Titans, falling 9-6, but with nothing to lose, I think the visitors will once again keep it competitive this week. The Titans could barely get past the Jets last week at home (26-22) and I think they’ll have their hands full today against this revenge minded and much improved Jags’ defensive unit. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Jacksonville is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six in revenging an extremely close loss of three points or less, while Tennessee is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite (including 0-2 ATS this season.) Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Iowa State has won eight of the last ten in this series, but I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor this time around. After four straight wins, including an 81-59 victory over NDSU on Monday, I think Iowa State suffers a letdown here finally. The Cyclones allow only 61.9 PPG, but I think they’ll have their hands full today against a Hawkeyes team desperate to avoid a three-game skid. Iowa has been a beast on the offensive end though, scoring 80.8 PPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four following a SU loss by 20 or more points, while Iowa State is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 on the road. Play on Iowa.

10* play

The set-up: It’s the 5-1 TCU Horned Frogs vs. the 6-3 Mustangs and in my opinion, this spread could easily be a lot larger. TCU has gotten healthier over the last two weeks, with the return of forward Kouat Noi and guard Jaylen Fisher. “[Fisher has] made our offense better without shooting at a high, high percentage,” head coach Jamie Dixon noted. “He has a real good understanding of where other guys on the floor are at. He’s one of our best guys at playing without the ball. His cuts and his movement, that’s what makes us better with him.” SMU has won four straight, but the level of competition gets called into question, most recently a 79-67 win over Oral Roberts.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home and only 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. teams with winning records, while TCU is a solid 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Play on TCU.

10*

The set-up: I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up. The Clippers posted a 129-126 win over New Orleans on Monday, while the Grizzlies will be the “hungrier” team here after falling 103-95 in Philadelphia in their latest action. Note that this is a revenge game as well after the Clippers posted the 112-107 OT him win earlier in the year. LA is primed for a letdown here at the end of its tough four game road trip. Memphis on the other hand comes in focused and desperate after losing four of its last five.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 3-5 ATS already this season as a road dog of six points or less, while Memphis is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite. Play on the Grizzlies.

10*

The set-up: The Kings are 11-11 and the Suns are 4-19. The Kings enter off a satisfying 111-110 home win over Indiana and I think they’re primed for a letdown here. The Suns won’t be lacking any motivation obviously after the terrible start to the year, most recently a 120-96 setback at the Lakers on Sunday. Phoenix took three of four in this series last year and I think it’ll keep it competitive here as well. The Kings average 114.3 PPG and they allow 117.1. The Suns average 103 PPG and they allow 113.7. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a close home win by three points or less, while Phoenix is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 after falling to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: Both teams played last night, meaning that the home court advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Clippers come in off a loss to Dallas and they look ripe for the picking. The Pelicans enter off a 119-110 win in Charlotte and there’s no reason not to think that they won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are already just 2-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less, while New Orleans is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite and interestingly 3-1 ATS vs. the Pacific division. Lay the points.

10*

The set-up: These teams are very evenly matched. The Steelers missed RB LeVeon Bell last week and they’re going to again today as well. After winning three straight, the Steelers came up short in Denver last weekend. LA though enters off a blowout win over the Cardinals and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that veteran pivot Phillip Rivers can’t carry that momentum over here facing this Steelers unit which struggled last weekend. 

The pick: Note as well that LA is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 3-1 ATS in its last four following a two game home stand, while Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this season. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

The set-up: The 5-2 Washington Huskies aren’t going to take the 6-1 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos for granted here. And that’s because the Gauchos have won five straight, most recently crushing Sacramento State 75-58 on Thursday. But the Huskies are the deeper and more skilled team from the Power Conference and I look for them to lay the hammer down here. Washington bounced back a two-point loss to Minnesota to destroy Eastern Washington 83-59 on Tuesday.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCSB is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after cover four of its last five ATS, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five after covering as a double digit favorite. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: These two teams are very familiar with each other. Last year Boise State won this exact game vs. this exact opponent 17-14 and I believe we’ll see a much bigger final discrepancy this time around. Fresno State comes in at 10-2 after last week’s 31-13 win over San Jon Jose State. Fresno State averages 36.3 PPG and it allows 13.5. Boise State comes in on top form, having won seven straight, most recently a 33-24 win over No. 21 ranked Utah State last weekend to advance to the Championship game. Overall the Broncos are averaging 37 PPG and allowing 22.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is already 4-2 ATS at home this year. These teams actually played at Albertsons Stadium earlier this season and the Broncos came out on top 24-17. This is a horrible match-up for Fresno State and I think that trend continues. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Warriors come in off a 131-128 road loss in Toronto, a setback which saw star Kevin Durant score 51 points. Golden State has been struggling without Stephen Curry in the line-up, but the proficient point guard makes his triumphant return to the Association this evening and I believe he’ll make all the difference. The Pistons present the perfect opponent to get back on track against and test themselves as Detroit comes in having won four straight. Level of competition though has to be taken into account during the Pistons recent mini-run, most recently a victory over the lowly Bulls. Golden State averages 116.5 PPG and it allows 111.5. Detroit averages 111.8 PPG and it allows 110.7. Clearly the margin for error is pretty slim for the Pistons most nights.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous outing, while Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference home games as an underdog in the +3.5 to +7.5 points range. “The Chef” returns and the defending champs return to form. Lay the points.

10*

The set-up: K-State enters off a 77-58 home win over Lehigh, while Marquette comes in off a 76-55 home victory over Charleston Southern. K-State is a difficult opponent, as all five starters return from last year. Northwestern averages only 73.0 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 56.3. Those numbers (especially the defensive ones) are a bit “skewed” though in my opinion due to the level of competition to this point. Golden State won’t be going down without a fight, it’s 5-2 to open the year and it averages 75.3 PPG, while allowing 65.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but K-State is just 6-15-2 ATS in its last 23 road games following three or more consecutive home games and interestingly just 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Big East. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 at home this season. Expect that unbeaten streak to extend. 

10*

The set-up: Its the inaugural Sun Belt Conference title game and a trip to the New Orleans Bowl is at stake. Am I call for an outright upset? I am not. However, I do think the Ragin Cajuns can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Louisiana Lafayette won its final three games to earn its spot here, while App State defeated Troy State to advance. Lafayette averages 33.7 PPG. Clearly it’s not going to be a cake walk as the Mountaineers have won four straight since a 34-14 setback to Georgia Southern. App State gets the job done with a strong run, averaging 242.5 YPG, while racking up 27 TDs. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UL Lafayette is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a record above the .500 mark. Both will be looking to establish the run. This one is going to be much tighter than what Las Vegas wants us to think. grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s the PAC 12 Championship and I’m expecting a blowout. The No. 17 Utah Utes face the No. 16 Washington Huskies. The Utes enter off a 35-27 win over BYU, while the Huskies earned a 28-15 road victory over a tough WSU team. The Huskies have dominated this series for a long time, going 11-1 the last 12, including a convincing 21-7 road victory back on September 15th. Utah had to come from behind to beat BYU last weekend and overall it’s averaging 30.8 PPG and allowing 19.2. Washington averages 28 PPG and it allows only 16.5. Veteran QB Jake Browning plays in his final PAC 12 game of his career and I believe his veteran experience in this situation can not be overlooked. The Utes are without RB Zack Moss and QB Tyler Huntley as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after two or more SU victories, while Washington is still 5-2 ATS in its last seen as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Utah enters off a 101-91 road win over Brooklyn on Wednesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Charlotte took down Atlanta 108-94 at home on Wednesday. These teams split a pair of games last year. The Jazz average 105.3 PPG and they allow 108.1. Big man Rudy Gobert averages 15.3 points, 12.5 boards and 1.95 blocks per game.) The Hornets are averaging 114.9 PPG and they’re allowing 110. Kemba Walker leads the way with 27.4 pints and 6.3 assists per game.

The pick: It’s interesting to note though that Utah is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. the Southeast Division, while Charlotte is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. With Donovan Mitchell back in the line-up, the Jazz are an entirely different team. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The 4-1 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are 4-1 after beating St. Edwards 73-60 on Sunday. Shannon Bogues had 16 points. The Dons are 6-0 and off to their best star ever. Most recently San Francisco beat Dartmouth 84-65 on Saturday. Franke Ferrari had 19 points, four boards and seven assists.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but SFA is 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, while San Francisco is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Pacers come in off back-to-back road wins and they’ll be playing without Victor Oladipo, their main offensive weapon. The Lakers have lost two straight after a five-game win skein, including a humbling defeat in Denver last time out. I think the Pacers go through the motions today and I believe “The King” will lay the hammer down from start to finish in this favorable matchup. This spread could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non conference home games on the heels of a two games or more SU/ATS losing streak. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams are 5-1. Alabama enters off a 78-72 home win over Murray State, while UCF comes in off a 66-63 home win over Northern Kentucky. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tide after the Knights recorded the 65-62 road win last year. The Tide average 77 PPG and they allow 70.3. The Knights average 75.3 PPG and they allow 62.3.

The pick: Alabama comes from the tougher conference and it’s loaded with talent. I’m expecting a battle between these two titans. Take it for what you will as well, but Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a raod dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while UCF is still 14-15 ATS in its last 29 after allowing 60 points or less. Grab the points.

 10* play

The set-up: These two teams are both undefeated, but I think the Cavs unrelenting defensive attack will once again win the day on Wednesday night. Virginia most recently dominated Wisconsin 53-46 to win the Battle For Atlantis, holding the Badgers to just 2 of 11 from range and 43.8 percent from the floor overall. The Virginia defense is ranked No. 2 in the country, allowing 49.3 PPG. Maryland has been the beneficiary of a weak schedule to this point, with five of its first six games at home. The Terps do come in off an impressive 104-67 destruction of Marshall, but note that this is a spot in which Maryland has struggled in nightly. 

The pick: As take it for what you will, but the Terps are already a poor 2-4 ATS in their last six non-conference games and just 1-4 ATS at home overall, while the Cavs are 4-2 ATS in non-conference contests and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 on the road. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Lakers are a team led by the best basketball talent on Earth, but which is still trying to find its identity on most nights. That’s understandable, as chemistry takes time to develop. Regardless, LA will be out to atone for a 108-104 home loss to Orlando on Sunday. The Nuggets on the other hand return home off a successful road trip and a 105-98 win at OKC on Saturday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” LA averages 114.2 PPG and it allows 112.7. Denver averages 109.9 points and it allows 103.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but LA is already 4-1 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records, while Denver is just 4-5 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records and a poor 7-13 ATS in its last 20 after three or more SU wins. Grab the points, expect a “nail biter!” 

The set-up: VT hasn’t started a season 6-0 for the last six years, but it can accomplish that feat tonight in its first true road game of the campaign. VT enters off a dominating 75-37 rout of St. Francis of Pennsylvania on Saturday and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Four players have at least nine three-balls so far this year for the Hokies ash they’re shooting a solid 41.4 percent from range overall. VT is only 5-7 all time in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, but it’s won its last two. PSU comes in off a crushing 59-56 upset loss to Bradley in the title game of the Cancun Classic and I think its ripe for the picking here. Overall the Nittany Lions shot just 4 of 27 from range in the setback. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Penn State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 0.5 and 6.5 points range, while VT is 5-0 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the short points.

The set-up: After an 0-3 start, Houston comes out of its bye week having won six straight. I think the time off will ultimately throw a “monkey wrench” into the chemistry and I look for the hungry Titans to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Houston holds a two game lead over both Tennessee and Indianapolis, so this is a crucial game for the visitors. Tennessee destroyed the Patriots, but it couldn’t keep that momentum going in a 28-10 loss to the Colts last weekend. But with their season essentially on the line, I think the Titans bounce back this week.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams with winning records, while Houston is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive victories. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Houston will be eager to return to form here after a 117-108 road loss in Cleveland on Saturday. Washington on the other hand looks poised for a letdown in my opinion after a 124-114 win over New Orleans on Saturday. But the Rockets have in fact lost two in a row on the road. Overall the Rockets are averaging 106.9 PPG and they’re allowing 107.9. The Wizards are averaging 112.2 PPG and allowing 117.2.  

The pick: Previous to their upset win over the Hornets, the struggling Wizards had lost three straight. Note that they’re just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a SU victory. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Beavers are rolling. They return from a successful showing in the Virgin Islands State side with a 4-1 record. LBSU on the other hand has done poorly to this point with a 1-3 record. The Beavers feature plenty of talent and veteran experience, led by Tres Tinkle, who had a double-double in all four games in the Virgin Islands tournament. Most recently he had 32 points in the win over Penn. The 49ers lost 87-72 to Utah Valley most recently, with Deishuan Booker a lone bright spot with 17.8 points. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning percentages under .400. I don’t see Oregon State looking past this opportunity. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams played yesterday. The Cavs enter off a confidence building 121-112 win over Philadelphia, while Houston lost 116-111 in Detroit. This the end of a tough Eastern swing for Houston and I think it’s primed for another letdown here as well. Houston is only averaging 106.6 PPG, while the defense is allowing 105.7. The Cavs are averaging 103.4 PPG and they’re allowing 111.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back after winning the first by seven or more points. No outright, but expect a competitive battle. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Princeton has plenty of new faces from last year’s team, but I still think it’ll have more than enough to take care of Monmouth. Clearly these teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment shared by Las Vegas. 

The pick: The “edges” for this play though come in the numbers, as note that the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last six as a road favorite of three points or less and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. poor defensive teams which allow 77 plus points per contest, while Monmouth is a poor 7-12 ATS in its last 19 non-conference contests and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Texas needs a win here to punch its ticket to the Big 12 Championship game and whether QB Sam Ehlinger plays or not, I think the Longhorns find a way to get the job done here. Texas is averaging 32.4 PPG and it’s allowing 25.9. The Jayhawks are averaging 24.5 PPG and allowing 30.5. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road conference games a favorite in the -14 to -17 points range, while Kansas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points.

The set-up: Ole Miss still needs one more win to become eligible. Clearly this game means “more” to the Rebels than to the 7-4 Bulldogs. Mississippi State looks primed for a letdown though after winning three of four, including a satisfying beatdown of Arkansas most recently. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog in the 10.5 to 14 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Grizzlies are 11-5 and the Spurs are 8-8. The Spurs enter motivated after a loss to the Pelicans, while the Grizz look poised for a letdown after four straight victories. San Antonio has now lost five in a row on the road, but a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for SA to get back on track in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Grizzlies are still a horrible 10-27 ATS in their last 37 following a divisional contest and just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 after three or more consecutive victories, while San Antonio is already 4-1 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more in its previous outing. Look for the Spurs to bound back and for the Grizzlies to finally have a letdown in this difficult arena. Lay the points.

The set-up: WMU lost starting QB Jon Wassink three games ago and the Broncos have lost three straight. Both teams are already bowl eligible. NIU had won six straight before a tough 13-7 home loss to Miami Ohio last weekend. The Huskies were already eligible and they ran into a buzz saw in the Redhawks, who still need one more win to qualify, but who were fighting for their lives in that one and on a win streak of their own. The Huskies are averaging only 19.8 PPG, but they’re allowing just 20.3. The Broncos are averaging 33.6 PPG and they’re allowing 34.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while NIU is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly not out of the question. Minnesota most recently won 24-9 at home over Detroit two weeks ago and I think it has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. Chicago looks primed for a letdown here as well after its 34-22 win over Detroit last weekend. Overall the Vikes are averaging 24.6 PPG and they’re allowing 22.7. The Bears are averaging 29.9 PPG and they’re allowing 19.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Chicago is just 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six coming off a win in which it held its opponent under ten points and following its bye. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The 11-8 Winnipeg Blue Bombers get ready to take on the 13-5 Calgary Stampeders in the CFL West Final and in my opinion, home field can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor/advantage for the Stamps. Winnipeg has won six of seven and QB Chris Streveler has a 29/18 TD/INT. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has 5,124 yards and a 35/14 TD/INT. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Calgary is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range. Lay the points, play on the Stamps.

10* play

The set-up: The Broncos come in out of their bye hungry as they’ve lost two straight. The Chargers though could be a bit complacent here after their big win over the Raiders last week. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Denver is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more SU/ATS losses, while LA is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 at home and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think LA has a letdown here after last weeks win, while Denver comes in focused after its bye. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Arizona State has a chance to represent the South division of the Pac 12 with a win today, but Oregon will be doing everything in its power to prevent that. ASU will be going bowling for a second straight season though win or lose. QB Manny Wilkins has 2,449 yards, 16 TD’s and four INT’s. The Sun Devils defense took a hit this week with LB Merlin Roberson suspended after last week’s game against UCLA for a dirty hit. The Ducks are 6-4, but a couple more victories will elevate their bowl berth. QB Justin Herbert is the difference maker for me in this particular matchup though. Herbert has 2,621 passing yards and 25 TD’s thus far. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ASU is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Oregon is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite in the same points range. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I’m clearly not calling for an outright upset, but I do definitely expect the visiting side to keep this one more competitive than what this line would suggest. Mississippi State went blow for blow with Alabama last Saturday but fell 24-0. The Bulldogs looked “ok” defensively, but overall it was a humbling loss. Arkansas nearly upset LSU last Saturday, as QB Ty Storey went for 200 yards and two TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arkansas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 off a loss against a conference rival, while Mississippi State is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: SMU in first place in the West Division of the American with a 4-2 overall record, while Memphis just 3-3. When these teams played last year, it was the Tigers that destroyed the Mustangs 66-45 at home. Memphis has struggled against teams like Missouri and UCF, but it enters off back to back blowout wins (47-21 over Tulsa and 59-41 over East Carolina.) So far the Tigers are averaging 531.9 YPG. SMU has won two straight as well, but like its counterpart today, defense has been the issue all year. SMU’ QB Ben Hicks has a sharp 16/4 TD:INT, but I still think the Mustangs will struggle keeping pace with the now surging Tigers.

The pick: I think Memphis lays the hammer down here despite reaching the six win plateau last weekend. SMU needs one more victory, but it’ll have to wait one more weekend to try and get it. Lay the points.

The set-up: FAU comes in off an upset 35-14 victory over WKU, while North Texas suffered an upset loss in a 34-31 setback to Old Dominion. Note that this is a revenge game for the Mean Green after FAU posted the 69-31 home win over UNT last year. Despite last weeks win though, the Owls are still averaging only 31.1 PPG, while allowing 31.3. And despite last week’s loss, the Mean Green are still averaging 37.2 PPG and allowing 20.3. 

The pick: Note that UNT is 4-1 at home this year and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after allowing more than 280 yards passing in its previous game, while FAU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: WKU enters off an 86-71 home win over UT Martin, while Valparaiso comes in off a 121-65 victory over Concordia Illinois. This is part of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. The Crusaders averaged 70.4 points and allowed 68.2 last year. Ryan Fazekas leads the nightly charge and he had 18 points in Val’s most recent victory. Last year WKU averaged 70.5 PPG and it allowed 72. Taveion Hollingsworth was a standout in the latest win with 22 points.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Valparaiso is 5-2 ATS in its last even neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU win of more than 20 points. Grab the points.

The set-up: Buffalo is 9-1 and it’s won five straight. The Bulls have never opened a season 9-1 before and if they win today, they’ll clinch the division. However, I think the hungry Bobcats will battle hard and find a way to defend home turf. Previous to last week’s tough 30-28 loss to Miami Ohio, Ohio has been on fire. The Bobcats ran into an equally as hungry side in the Redhawks and they just didn’t have enough on the road. A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion though.

The pick: Note that Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. Home field is the difference. Play on Ohio.

10* play

The set-up: WMU is already bowl eligible, but since losing QB Jon Wassink to injury, the Broncos have struggled on both sides of the ball. It appears the team has packed it in with just a few games remaining. The Cardinals will need to run the board to become eligible and while that’s likely not going to happen with an injury to their starting QB as well, the home side certainly won’t going down without a fight tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is already 2-4 ATS this year against teams with losing records, while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points and expect a competitive battle.