All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
12-19-17 | Marshall v. Xavier -22 | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Marshall: The Thundering Herd are one of only 10 Division I schools averaging in excess of 90 points per game, checking in at 90.2 PPG (9th). However, Marshall doesn't much spread its scoring around, as Jon Elmore leads all of Conference USA in scoring at 24.3 PPG while fellow guard C.J. Burks adds 19.6 PPG and the 6-9 Ajdin Penava contributes 19.1 PPG to rank third and fourth, respectively (Penava also leads the team in rebounding at 9.8 per game and the conference in FG percentage at 65.2%). Marshall's group represents the highest scoring trio in the nation at 63 points per game and it needs to, as Marshall is allowing 83.9 PPG to rank 334th (of 351 Division I schools)! Xavier: The Musketeers have just one true "big-time" scorer and that's Trevon Bluiett (21.4 PPG plus 5.1 RPG). J.P. Macura (10.7) is the only only double digit scorer but six other Xavier players chip in between 6.9 and 9.7 PPG. That balance has Xavier averaging just a few points less than Marshall, at 88.4 (15th). Let's also note that Xavier's 52.8 percent FG percentage ranks second in the nation. The huge difference between the two schools comes on the defensive end of the court, as Xavier is allowing just 69.5 PPG. That's more than three 'TDs' less than Marshall! The pick: Xavier staged the largest comeback in Cintas Center history the last time out, capped by Trevon Bluiett's game-winner with seven seconds left. "We have to learn from it," head coach Chris Mack said. "Every game isn't going to be a 15-nothing run to start the game. We have to gut some out." Marshall leads the all-time series 13-11 but the schools have played only twice since 1958. Xavier has won the last two meetings, including the most recent one, 69-46 at Cintas Center on Dec. 30, 2004. Marshall can score but so can Xavier, plus while teh Thundering Herd can't slow down any team, the Musketeers can do just that, Lay it and make Xavier an 8* play. |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons edged the Saints 20-17 a week ago Thursday night, giving them four wins in their last five to reach 8-5. The Saints (10-4) and Panthers (10-4) both won on Sunday, so the Falcons can ill afford a loss in Week 15's MNF matchup at Raymond James Stadium with the 4-9 Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs come in off three straight losses (to the Falcons, Packers and Lions).and are likely just looking for this highly disappointing season to come to an end. These teams met in Week 12 at Atlanta with the Falcons winning 34-20. Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards but had just one TD pass (zero INTs). WR Julio Jones had 253 receiving yards and caught a TD pas from Ryan and WR Sanu. Atlanta's running game rolled up 148 yards (5.3 YPC) with two rushing TDs. Tampa's Winston was out with an injury in that contest, with Fitzpatrick throwing for 283 yards but no scores. Atlanta: Julio Jones was having a relatively quiet season by his lofty standards until torching Tampa Bay for 12 catches for 253 yards and a pair of TDs in that Week 12 meeting. It's also good news that Devonta Freeman has rushed for 165 yards in two games since returning from a concussion and could be in line for a heavy workload with backup Tevin Coleman in the concussion protocol. Atlanta's running game is solid, averaging 116.8 YPG (12th) but Ryan is way off his 2016 MVP numbers. The Falcons led the NFL by averaging 33.8 PPG last season but head into this Week 15 game averaging only 22.6 PPG (15th). The defense has played well though, allowing 20.1 PPG (9th) on 319.8 YPG (7th). Tampa Bay: Winston's been back for the last two games (555 passing yards with 4 TDs and 2 INTs) but the Bucs have lost both. Tampa Bay's running game has struggled all season (91.5 YPG ranks 22nd) and is surely a good part of the reason the Bucs are averaging only 20.3 PPG (22nd). Winston enjoyed plenty of success last season against Atlanta, throwing for 542 yards with seven TDs against one interception. but one wonders how much 'fight' there still is in Tampa Bay. The defense is allowing 389.3 YPG (31st) and 24.0 PPG (23rd). The pick: Atlanta entered the week one game behind the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers but both won, so a win is a must. The good news for the Falcons is that they still have to play the Saints and Panthers, giving them a chance to claim the division title by winning their final three games. “Focusing on the next team could be a little bit distracting,” Falcons linebacker De’Vondre Campbell said. “We have to focus on (Tampa Bay) because every game at this point is a must-win.” It's also good news that Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games, while the Bucs are 13-28-1 ATS in their last 42 games in December, as well as 23-49-1 ATS in their last 73 home games. Raymond James is not exactly a tough place for visiting teams to play! After pulling out recent must-win games vs. the Seahawks and Saints, I doubt the Falcons (with the Saints and Panthers looming) will 'stub their toes' against that sad-sack Bucs. Make the Falcons a 10* play. |
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12-18-17 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
Boston: "We just stayed composed and went out and executed," Boston forward Al Horford (14.3-7.9-5.4) told reporters of the strong finish. "We got some stops on defense. On the offensive end, we moved the ball pretty well. I think that was the difference. We opened up the game after that." Kyrie Irving (24.2 & 4.9 APG) led Boston with 20 points but the play of rookie forward Jayson Tatum (13.8 & 5.7) has been a key lately for Boston. Tatum had 19 points, nine rebounds, two blocks and two steals at Memphis. He leads the NBA with a 51 percent mark from three-point range and is averaging 15 points while shooting 58.6 percent overall in the team's last three wins but just 5.5 PPG on 2-of-13 shooting in the two losses. Indiana: Victor Oladipo's breakout season continued on Sunday as he scored 26 points on 9-of-14 shooting with seven rebounds. He's averaging 24.4-5.5-4.0 on the year. Myles Turner scored 16 points against the Nets and is averaging 14.7 & 7.2. His backup, rookie Domantas Sabonis (12.1 & 8.4) registered 17 points, eight rebounds and three blocks at Brooklyn. The young big men combined for 36 points and 13 rebounds in the loss to Boston last month in a game Oladipo missed due to a bruised knee. Since missing against Boston, Oladipo is averaging 30.2 points, seven rebounds and 4.8 assists over his last five games! The pick: The Pacers did not get much time to enjoy their latest win. Shortly after finishing off a 12-point victory over the Nets in Brooklyn on Sunday, they were taking a flight back home to face the Celtics. When Boston beat the Pacers for the fourth straight time, its record was 18-3. Since then, the Celtics are 7-4 in their past 11 games, and they have alternated wins and losses over the past six games. The Celtics turned in two of their worst displays of the season last week in a 108-85 Monday loss at Chicago and a 107-95 Friday home loss to the Utah Jazz. Those games were part of a stretch that has seen the Celtics allow 102.5 points since their last meeting against Indiana. However, Boston rebounded nicely from the Friday loss with a 102-93 win at Memphis on Saturday. The Celtics are 12-4 SU & ATS on the road this season, as Irving averages 25.6 points while shooting 44.7 percent from three-point range on the road, compared to 22.8 and 34.1 percent at home. Boston allows the fewest points in the league (98.1 per), while holding opponents to 43.9% (2nd-best). Meanwhile, the Pacers are allowing 106.8 PPG, to rank 21st. Defense wins and make Boston a 10* play. |
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12-18-17 | Houston Baptist v. Michigan State -33 | Top | 62-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-1 Michigan State Spartans have just that lone 88-81 loss to Duke on their resume and should remain No. 2 in Monday' afternoon's new AP poll. The Spartans welcome Houston Baptist to East Lansing on Monday night to begin a five-game homestand. The Spartans will undoubtedly extend their winning streak to 10 in a row, with the margin of victory being only question mark. Houston Baptist comes in just 4-7 and will be at an even greater disadvantage with the ankle injury to the 6-11 Ibara (16.0 & 10.0). Houston Baptist: The Huskies can score (83.5 PPG ranks 39th) plus have been one of the top rebounding teams in the country this season, ranking 14th in rebounds per game (42.1) and third in offensive boards (15.8). With Ibara out, the 6-10 Edward Hardt (3.2 & 2.0) is the only starter above 6-6. Head coach Ron Cottrell has his team competing on the glass every night because everyone concentrates on getting to the boards. Four different players average at least 5.1 rebounds, including point guard Braxton Bonds (9.0-5.1-5.4 RPG). 6-6 freshman forward David Carahe averages 15.2 & 6.7 plus freshman guard Ian DuBose 11.4 & 5.1. The problem is a defense allowing 82.4 PPG, which ranks 329th out of 351 Division I teams. Michigan State: Trying to stop MSU's balanced starting-five seems like a 'bridge too far.' Swingman Bridges leads the way (15.1 & 6,4), teamed with an excellent guard duo of Langford (13.3) and PG Winston (13.3 & 6.4 APG). The 6-8 Ward (13.8 & 6.9) and the 6-11 Jackson (10.7 & 7.3) round out a starting-five which leads the way for an offense averaging 80.7 PPG. That's more than enough when MSU features a defense which allows a modest 62.4 PPG (20th), along with the nation's top defensive FG percentage (just 33.4%). The pick: Sure, Houston Baptist averages 83.5 PPG but Michigan State has allowed just three opponents to record more than 60 points this season. MSU's next four opponents, Houston Baptist, Long Beach State, Cleveland State and Savannah State, own a combined 15-30 record. Boredom is the team's lone concern. However, with Tom Izzo at the helm, I'm not concerned about that. Lay it and make the Spartans a 10* play. |
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12-17-17 | UC-Santa Barbara v. USC -13.5 | Top | 87-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos, struggled through an injury and academic issue-plagued 2016-17 season to finish just 6-22. However, they will take the court tonight against USC at the Galen Center.on a seven-game winning streak which has them sitting at 8-2. The USC Trojans are off a 26-win season and returned all five starters to begin the 2017-18 season ranked 10th in the AP's preseason poll. However, after opening 4-0, the Trojans dropped three consecutive games before an 82-59 victory over Santa Clara on Thursday "stopped the bleeding." USC leads the series 13-1 and won the last meeting, 96-72, at the Galen Center on Nov, 27, 2016. UC-Santa Barbara: Sophomore guard Max Heidegger leads four players in double figures with a 23.4 average and has connected on 31-of-71 3-pointers (43.7 percent). Senior forward Leland King II, a 6-7 transfer from Nevada, is averaging a double-double (19.2 & 10.0) while shooting 46.7 percent from three-point range. Junior forward Jalen Canty (11.3 & 8.2) and junior guard Gabe Vincent (10.9 & 3.7 APG) complete the etam's double digit scorers. USC: The Trojans have a pair of 'twin towers' in the 6-11 Matu (16.1 & 8.5) and the 6-10 Boatwright (15.4 & 8.2) plus a excellent guard trio in McLaughlin (13.8 & 6.8 APHG), Stewart (10.5) and Matthews (8.4). The pick: USC played just seven games in the first 34 days of the season but now finds itself in a stretch where it will play six games over a 12-day period, a stretch that began with the win over Santa Clara. The Trojans could use a "feel good win" here and maybe the busy schedule will jump start this very talented team which so far, has underachieved. Note that USC didn't lose to any slouches, as the losses came against A&M (9-1), SMU (8-3) and Oklahoma (8-1). Lay the points and make USC a 10* play. |
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12-17-17 | Titans +2 v. 49ers | Top | 23-25 | Push | 0 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Tennessee: The defense had eight sacks against Arizona and held the Cardinals to just 261 yards and 12 points (four FGs) but Tennessee's offense was awful. The Titans accumulated only 204 yards, as Marcus Mariota completed 16 of 31 for only 159 yards without a TD pass and one INT. The running game had only 65 yards on 22 attempts. The Titans rank 27th in passing (197.5 YPG) with Mariota throwing only 10 TD passes against 14 INTs (76.9 QB rating). The ground game was third-best in the NFL last year (136.7 YPG) but it's down to 117.7 YPG in 2017, ranking 10th. The defense ranks 9th in yards allowed (323.3 YPG) but in the more important category of points allowed, Tennessee is allowing 22.6 PPG (18th). San Francisco: Have the 49ers found their answer at QB? C.J. Beathard got hurt at the end of the 49ers' Week 12 loss at Seattle, as San Francisco fell to 1-10. That opened the door for Jimmy Garoppolo's long-anticipated 'test drive.' He's led San Francisco to back-to-back wins, 15-14 at Chicago and 26-16 Houston. He threw for 334 yards, a touchdown and an interception on 20 of 33 passing against Houston and enters this contest completing 66.7 percent for 645 yards with two TDs and two INTs (92.6 QB rating). RB Carlos Hyde has 771 yards but the etam averaghes a modest 100.8 YPG (22nd). The pick: I can see why some are leaning to San Francisco. The 49ers may nave been 1-10 but five of those losses had come by three points or less. Garoppolo is seen as a 'savior' and the fact that he has now won all four of his career starts, including his first two for San Francisco, makes San Fran a 'sexy' pick. That said, it's hard to see a 3-10 team being favored over a team fighting for a division title or wild card spot. The 49ers haven't won three in a row since the 2014 season and I say it won't happen here, either. Beating the sad-sack Bears and the Watson-less Texans is one thing, beating a playoff-contending team is another. Make Tennessee a 10* play. |
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12-17-17 | Bengals +11 v. Vikings | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings finally proved human last Sunday, as their eight-game winning streak came to an end in a 31-24 loss at the Carolina Panthers. Minnesota returns home off a three-game road trip and will be "dropping down in class" to face the 5-8 Cincinnati Bengals. Minnesota can clinch the NFC North Division title with a win, while Cincinnati will miss the playoffs for the second straight season, after making five straight (and six of seven) appearances. Cincinnati: The Bengals come in off back-to-back losses, including an 'ugly' 33-7 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Bears in their last outing. Andy Dalton completed just 14 of 29 while throwing for only 141 yards with one TD and one INT. AJ McCarron threw for 47 yards in relief of Dalton. The Cincy running game has been a problem all season (79.4 RPG ranks 31st) but the Bengals could get back the services of rookie RB Joe Mixon (concussion). Mixon leads the team with 518 YR but averages only 3.3 YPC. Cincinnati averages only 197.8 YPG through the air, leaving them dead-last in total offense at 277.2 YPG and not much better in scoring, at 28th with 17.4 PPG. The defense has hung in there, considering, allowing a modest 20.8 PPG (13th). Minnesota: Case Keenum has been a huge surprise at QB and enters 9-3 as a starter. However, he did show some vulnerability last week, committing three turnovers (two INTs / one fumble) in the 31-24 setback at Carolina. The Vikings only ran for 100 yards vs. Carolina but overall, RBs Murray (586 YR / 5 TDs) and McKinnon (460 YR / 3 TDs) have done a nice job since the loss of star rookie RB Cook. The Vikings come in averaging 121.8 YPG on the ground, which ranks 8th. Despite allowing 31 points at Carolina last Sunday, Minnesota's defense ranks third in points allowed on the season (18.1 per), as well as also ranking third in total defense at 293.4 YPG. The pick: The Vikings are fighting for home field advantage in the NFC and can ill afford a slip here but this is a lot of points and the Bengals are 4-2 ATS on the road in 2017. Was Keenum's TO problem last week a sign of things to come? Also note that while Dalton played poorly last Sunday, he had thrown 11 TDs without an interception in his previous six games! Take those points and make Cincy an 8* play. |
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12-17-17 | Cardinals v. Redskins -4 | Top | 15-20 | Win | 100 | 92 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: This Week 15 matchup is between two playoff also-rans. It's true that the 6-7 Cardinals, who have two of their last three, have microscopic playoff chances but but they are 11th in the NFC, two games out of the second wild-card spot with only three games remaining. As for Washington, the Redskins have dropped four of their last five to fall to 5-8 and now realize even attaining a .500 record would take a three-game sweep of the team's final games. The Redskins' lone victory in that stretch came at home, a 20-10 triumph over the New York Giants (Week 12). However, Washington has allowed at least 30 points in each of its four defeats in that same span. Arizona: The Cards enter off a 12-7 victory over the Tennessee Titans and hope to build off that excellent defensive effort. The Cardinals had three 3 sacks and a pair of interceptions, while holding the Titans to just 204 yards of total offense and just 26 minutes of possession in the win. However, while Arizona ranks 8th in total defense (320.6 YPG), it is allowing 24.4 PPG, which ranks 25th. The offense has to rely on backup QB Blaine Gabbert, who threw for only 189 yards against the Titans and wasn't able to get the Cardinals into the end zone (team settled for four FGs). The running game averages a woeful 81.2 YPG (30th) and on the season, Arizona ranks 26th in scoring at 17.8 PPG. Washington: Kirk Cousins had a poor game last Sunday vs. the Chargers (a 30-13 loss), throwing for only 151 yards with one a touchdown and one interception. However, he is wrapping up another solid season (65.9% for an average of 240.7 YPG through the air with a 22-9 ratio and a QB rating of 97.7) but once again, the Redskins are headed 'nowhere!' I wonder where Cousins will be headed next season? Defensively, the ‘Skins had an interception that turned into a 96-yard pick-six from Beshaud Breeland but that was about all they could hang their hats on, as they allowed 488 yards of total offense and over 35 minutes of possession to the Chargers in the loss. The pick: However, the Cardinals hardly resemble the red-hot Chargers. In fact, Arizona comes in 1-5 ATS on the road in 2017, winning onty at Indy in OT (Colts are 3-11) and at San Francisco, as part of the 49ers' 0-9 start to the season. I realize the Redskins have their fair share of injuries and are not exactly the most harmonious team in the NFL at the moment but Cousins over Gabbert (198 YPG passing with 6 TDs and 5 INTs for an 80.8 QB rating), is a bargain. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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12-16-17 | Bucks +10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Is there any stopping the Houston Rockets? The 23-4 Rockets easily handled the SA Spurs 124-109 last night (Rockets led by as many as 28 points), the team's 12th consecutive win and 10th by double-digits during this impressive stretch of victories. "We have so many talented guys on this team that anyone can come in and have an impact on the game," James Harden said in a post-game television interview. "We just take it one night at a time. ... We just want it to be at a high level and play for each other." The 15-12 Milwaukee Bucks come to Houston scoring 100 points or more in 11 consecutive games (the franchise's best streak since a 12-game run during the 1990-91 campaign) but also having allowed 115 points in each of their last two games, losses to the New Orleans Pelicans (Wed)) and the Chicago Bulls (Friday). Milwaukee:The Bucks offense has jelled since the acquisition of guard Eric Bledsoe (17.4-3.8-4.4) to go with star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.9-10.5-4.5) and solid swingman Khris Middleton (20.2-5.3-4.6). "You've got three guys playing at a high level with Bled, Khris and Giannis," coach Jason Kidd told reporters. "Sharing the ball is the key, and being able to make your free throws. Just making a play for a teammate and finding the open guy. Guys are moving the ball. Right now, the ball is going in for us." Antetokounmpo and Middleton each scored 29 points in Friday's 115-109 loss to the Bulls, although Bledsoe was limited to 12 points. Houston: PG Chris Paul was brilliant against San Antonio with 28 points, eight assists and a season-best seven steals, as Houston improved to 13-0 with the nine-time All-Star in the lineup. Paul is averaging 26.3 points, eight assists and 3.5 steals over the past four games and has made a season-high five 3-pointers in each of the past two contests. Harden put up 28 points despite 6-of-18 shooting and has scored 20 or more in every game this season. Harden is averaging 31.5-5.1-9.3 and Paul 17.1-5.1-9.5. Add to that duo guard Gordon (18.7) plus center Capela (13.7-11.0) and the Rockets have a team the Warriors just may be concerned about by year's end. The pick: The Bucks had won six of seven games before their back-to-back losses but there is little doubt that they are struggling defensively. Milwaukee has allowed at least 100 points in seven consecutive games and ranks 28th in the NBA with a 110.5 defensive rating in December.I realize the Rockets are clearly on a roll but the Bucks have just dropped consecutive games for the first time since losing to the Mavericks and Wizards in late November. Expect at least a little let down from the Rockets off that beatdown of the Spurs and grab the big points with Milwaukee and the spectacular Antetokounmpo, who averaged 31.5 points, nine rebounds, 4.5 assists and 3.5 blocks as the teams split last season's two meetings. Make Milwaukee a 10* play. |
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12-16-17 | Clemson v. Florida -4.5 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 22 Florida faces a tough test in the second game of the Orange Bowl Classic, as the 6-3 Gators will take on 8-1 Clemson. Florida had dropped games against Duke and Florida State before suffering a surprising loss to Loyola Chicago but then knocked off Cincinnati 66-60 last Saturday in Newark, N.J, snapping a demoralizing three-game losing streak. "We just focused on ourselves, what we can do better, and especially our mental toughness,” Florida’s senior guard Egor Koulechov told reporters. “I thought we were really soft (during the losing streak). We took a step forward (last Saturday) with a win over a tough team.” Clemson is off to its best start since 2008-09, when the Tigers won their first 16 games, Clemson has won four games by 20 or more points and suffered their only loss of the season to Temple back on Nov. 17. Clemson: Head coach Brad Brownell goes after his 300th career win with a team averaging 79.8 PPG (97th), featuring five players averaging in double figures. Senior 6-8 forward Donte Grantham tops the team at 16.0 PPG and adds 6.2 RPG. Fellow 6-9 big man Thomas leads in rebounding at 8.8 per game and adds 12.1 PPG. Three guards join them in double digits, Reed (13.8), Mitchell (12.8 & 5.0 APG) and DeVoe (10.9). Clemson always plays good defense and this year's team is allowing just 63.9 PPG (36th). Florida: Senior guard Chris Chiozza stepped up to score the game’s final six points to finish with 15 against Cincinnati and is dishing out a team-best 6.1 assists per contest in the early going. “I wasn’t looking to take the game over,” Chiozza, who is averaging 11.8 PPG and has made 12-of-23 from three-point range overall, told reporters. “I was just trying to make good plays for my team and a couple fell into my hands.” Junior guard Jalen Hudson tops the team in scoring (19.1) and is hitting 52.7 percent from the floor, while Koulechov (16.1) is second. Both rebound well for guards, especially Koulechov, who leads the team at 6.2 RPG. Allen (11.8) makes it four double digit scorers, all guards. The two biggest contributors in the frontcourt are the 6-8 Stone (5.9 & 2.8) and the 6-9 Hayes (4.4 & 4.6). Florida can score (87.9 PPG ranks 19th) but it needs to with a defense allowing 76.9 PPG (275th!). The pick: The Gators were ranked among the nation's best after finishing off November by beating No. 17 Gonzaga in double overtime and leading top-ranked Duke in the final minutes before losing by three points in the PK80 Invitational in Portland, Or. However, that loss to the Blue Devils sent the Gators into a tailspin that saw them start December by losing to Florida State by 17 points and 65-59 to Loyola Chicago , both at home. The win over the Bearcats has to be a confidence-builder and while Sunrise, Fl is not exactly a home game, it's close (just outside of Fort Lauderdale). In fact, Florida has won seven straight in the Orange Bowl Classic. Make that eight straight, as the Gators are an 8* play. |
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12-16-17 | Marshall v. Colorado State -5.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Gildan New Mexico Bowl will be contested at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico and features the 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd (4-4 in C-USA East) and the 7-5 Colorado State Rams (5-3 in the MWC-Mountain Division). Marshall had a great start to their season, opening with a 6-1 record (a favorable schedule helped). However, the Thundering Herd struggled down the stretch, losing four of their last five games. The Rams struggled down the stretch as well, losing three of their last four but this game marks the school's fifth consecutive bowl appearance (2-2). Marshall: QB Chase Litton who completed 60.6% of his passes while averaging 237.8 YPG (58th). He has 23 TDs and 12 INTs. Litton has now started 33 contests for the Thundering Herd, throwing 70 TD passes against 29 interceptions, His top targets are a pair of first-team All-Conference USA selections in WR Tyre Brady (56 catches / 7 TDs), a transfer from Miami, and TE Ryan Yurachek (47 catches / 9 TDs). Overall, the offense averaged 26.3 YPG (81st) on 370.1 YPG (94th). The Marshall ground game averaged.a modest 132.3 YPG (104th), as RBs King (714 yards) and Davis (671 yards) combined for 11 TDs. The defense comes in allowing 19.2 PPG (17th) on 337.3 YPG (24th) but I'll have more on that later. Colorado State: The Rams own a potent offense led by QB Nick Stevens, who completed 63.6% of his passes for 27 TDs and 10 INTs while averaging 289.9 YPG through the air (ranks 23rd). Michael Gallup has 94 catches for 1,350 yards with seven TDs, The running game (211.5 YPG ranks ) is led by the duo of Dalyn Dawkins(1,349 RY / 6.2 YPC / 8 TDs) and Izzy Matthews (588 RY / 4.8 YPC / 8 TDs). An excellent run/pass balance sees the offense averaging 33.8 PPG (29th) on 501.8 YPG (10th). The defense is allowing unimpressive figures of 27.5 PPG (73rd) on 427.8 YPG (93rd). The pick: Marshall had success early in the season due to a light schedule and a defense which was holding opponents to an average of just 14.2 PPG. However, as the schedule toughened, the "D" had its troubles, allowing 26.2 PPG over the final five games of the season (Marshall went 1-4). I noted above the excellent balance CSU owns on offense and the last time the Rams played in the New Mexico Bowl (2013 against Washington St.), they scored 48 points! I realize that Marshall owns an FBS-best 10-2 record in NCAA-sanctioned bowl games (among teams with a minimum of four appearances), including going 5-0 since 2009. However, the Rams are just the better team in this matchup and expect Stevens and Co. to 'light up' an overrated Marshall defense. Make Colorado State an 8* play. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7.5 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boise State Broncos edged the Fresno State Bulldogs 17-14 in the MWC conference championship game, avenging a 28-17 loss at Fresno on Nov. 25. That victory clinched a bid to the Las Vegas Bowl and in the process, replaced Fresno State with a ranking of No. 25 in the AP's final regular season poll with a 10-3 record (matching last year's record). Joining the Broncos at Sam Boyd Stadium for the 26th Las Vegas Bowl will be the 7-5 Oregon Ducks (4-5 in the Pac-12 North). The Ducks opened the 2017 season at 4-1 but then dropped their next three games by a combined 82 points. However, they finished by winning three of their last four, including a 69-10 romp over Oregon State in their season finale. The schools have met only two previous times (Broncos have won both), most recently in Boise back on Sep. 3, 2009, Chip Kelly's head-coaching debut. The Broncos won 19-8 but the contest is most remembered for what happened after the game. RB LeGarrette Blount punched Boise State's Byron Hunt as the teams converged on the field afterward and the ensuing melee received national attention. Oregon: QB Justin Herbert threw for 1750 yards on 66.5% completions with 13 TDs and three INTs. Herbert was injured in Oregon's 45-24 victory over California back on Sept. 30 and was replaced by true freshman Braxton Burmeister. The Ducks went 1-4 over the course of Herbert's absence, so it's clear Oregon is a different team with him under center. RB Royce Freeman led the team with 1,475 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) and a team-high 16 TDs. Fellow RB Kani Benoit added 573 yards on the ground (7.2 YPC) with 10 TDs of his own. Oregon ranks 8th in rushing at 268.0 YPG and finished the season averaging 36.7 PPG (18th). The defense did a pretty good job in holding opponents to 359.8 YPG to rank 40th, than it did in the points allowed category, finishing 77th in allowing 28.2 PPG. Boise State: The champions of the Mountain West Conference mixed and matched QBs throughout the season but currently, the team is back to its opening game starter, Brett Rypien. He completed 195 of his 308 pass attempts for 2,515 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs. WR Cedrick Wilson led the BSU receiving corps with team-highs of 73 catches for 1290 yards (17.7 YPC with six TDs) but while TE Jake Roh caught a more modest 39 balls, he had a team-high nine TD receptions. The Broncos come in averaging 32.1 PPG (38th) and defensively, they've allowed 22.5 PPG (35th) on just 336.7 YPG (22nd). The pick: Let's first note that Oregon is garnering as much attention for who won't be at the game, as it is for who will be. Head coach Willie Taggart, who turned the Ducks' fortunes around after doing the same in four years at South Florida, will forego his duties after accepting the head coaching job at Florida State. Co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Mario Cristobal will lead the Ducks in Las Vegas (he spent six years as head coach at Florida International). One must also note that Boise's leading rusher, Alexander Mattison, is considered questionable after he suffered an ankle injury in the title game victory over Fresno State (he was seen in a walking boot after that game). Despite winning 10 games, to Oregon's seven, the Broncos are the underdog in this game. Oregon gets the nod as a the favorite because it's clear that the Ducks with Herbert, are a different team than the Ducks without him. It's really rather simple. Oregon averaged 52.1 PPG in the seven games Herbert played this year (note the nation's top-scoring club is UCF at 49.4 PPG) and just 15 points in the five games he missed due to injury. Make Oregon a 10* play. |
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12-16-17 | Oklahoma State v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: It's the first game of Saturday's Orange Bowl Classic in Sunrise, Fla., as unranked Oklahoma State (7-2) takes on No. 19 Florida State, with the schools meeting for only the second time in their histories (1964 was the first!). Florida State is one of only six undefeated teams in the nation entering Friday, having climbed into the rankings at No. 19 after extending its season-opening start to 9-0 with a 72-53 victory over Tulane on Sunday. The Seminoles now take aim at tying the school record for the best start to a season (10-0 in 2003-04). Oklahoma State has had success of its own this season but its two losses came against ranked opponents. The Cowboys lost 72-55 to No. 10 Texas A&M in November and 78-66 to No. 3 Wichita State on Sunday. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys fell to the Shockers despite career-high performances from Tavarius Shine (20 points) and Mitchell Solomon (17). Shine (11.0 & 4.2) is one of three guards averaging double digits, with Carroll (12.7 & 5.1) and Smith (10.2) being the other two. The 6-9 Solomon (8.2 & 6.2) and the 6-7 McGriff (8.2 & 5.6) are the team's best frontcourt players for a team in which the top-five scorers play on the perimeter. OSU averages a modest 78.8 PPG (113th) but remains competitive by relying on a tenacious defense that produces turnovers. The team has recorded at least 19 in each of its last three outings and the Cowboys are averaging 18.3 points off those turnovers per game. Oklahoma State allows its opponents 64.0 PPG (38th) on 40.2% shooting (65th). Florida State: The Seminoles did not have a strong shooting effort against Tulane (44.8 percent shooting from the floor, including 34.4 percent in the first half) but Leonard Hamilton's young Seminoles are solid all around. FSU ranks 23rd with 87.1 PPG and 28th in FG percentage at 50.0%. The defense allows 67.0 PPG (just 81st) but the team's defensive FG percentage ranks 16th at 37.5%. The team's margin of victory checks in at 21.0 PPG. The lone returning starter is junior guard Terance Mann and he leads in scoring with a career-high 15.6 PPG and a shooting percentage of 64.5 percent. Senior forward Phil Cofer, who has been a "no-show" the last two years, leads the team in rebounds (5.8) and adds 12.3 PPG. Joining those two in double digits are guards Angola (12.7 & 3.6 APG) and C.J. Walker (11.2). The set-up: The Seminoles have made it into the top-25 after a big week with victories over No. 22 Florida, Loyola (Md.) and Tulane, but the trick is remaining there. "We're making progress, but we're not a finished product," Hamilton told reporters. "We have 10 guys who are freshmen or sophomores. We're still growing and maturing." That said, FSU is perfect 7-0 ATS and as noted, OSU has lost to both previous ranked opponents, by 17 and 12 points. What I didn't mention earlier is that 1st-year OSU head coach Mike Boyton recently dismissed two contributing players, 6-5 junior wing Davon Dillard and highly-regarded 6-3 freshman Zack Dawson, which leaves the depth-shy Cowboys in even 'deeper' trouble. Lay it and make Florida State a 10* play. |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +7 v. Troy | Top | 30-50 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-2 Troy Trojans (7-1 in the Sun Belt) will take on the 9-4 North Texas Mean Green (7-1 in C-USA) in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Trojans enter this game on a six-game winning streak and have a chance to win 11 games for the first time in school history. The Mean Green have won eight of their last 10 games, although one of those two losses came 41-17 to FAU in the C-USA championship game (Dec. 2) and also have a shot at 10 victories for the first time in school history. The Troy Trojans are 3-3 all-time in bowl games, while the North Texas Mean Green are just 2-5 all-time in bowl appearances. Troy: QB Brandon Silvers is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 2,985 yards but has thrown only a modest 13 TDs (also just six INTs). WRs Deondre Douglas (48 catches) and Damion Willis (31) have combined for 1,113 receiving yards and five TDs, while Emanuel Thompson (another WR) has 38 receptions. Troy's ground game is averaging a modest 150.4 YPG (85th), as Jordan Chunn leads the way with 774 yards (5.0 YPC) and 10 TDs. The offense comes in scoring 30.0 PPG (50th). The Trojans have relied on their defense all season and come in allowing 17.5 PPG (11th) on 342.1 YPG (27th). The pick: Troy has never won 11 games in a season and North Texas has never produced a double-digit winning season, so the winner will be in 'virgin' territory. Troy comes in having won 21 of its past 26 games under coach Neal Brown, after he started 3-8 in 2015. Troy owns that great upset win at LSU and the much better defense but North Texas owns an excellent offense, the much better QB and even assuming Wilson doesn't play, a running game that is capable of adding balance. I want the underdog. Make North Texas an 8* play. |
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12-15-17 | Denver v. Stanford -11 | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
The setup: The Denver Pioneers won 16 games last season (lost 14) and have averaged a modest 15 wins per season the last four, since last winning 20-plus games. The 5-6 Pioneers will visit Maples Pavilion Friday night to take on Struggling Stanford, which comes in just 4-6. The Cardinal 'booted' Johnny Dawkins two yeas ago but after Jerod Hasse led Stanford to just a 14-17 record last season, the team's 4-6 start this season has many wondering if the Cardinal made the right move. Denver: The Pioneers will be looking for a bounce-back effort after committing 18 turnovers and trailing by as many as 28 in Wednesday’s 83-63 loss to Northern Colorado. The Pioneers do return four starters from last season and the lone bright spot in Wednesday's loss was the play of junior guard Joe Rosga, who registered 14 points and seven rebounds, becoming the 35th member of the school’s 1,000-point club. The frontcourt is led by 6-10 senior center Daniel Amigo, who averages 16.0 PPG and 4.8 RPG. Denver averages 70.5 PPG (267th) and allows 71.5 PPG (170th). Stanford: The Cardinal are back from a much-needed break for final exams, hoping a "re-boot' will be able to remedy the team's sluggish start. Stanford enters having lost five of its last six, hardly what was expected in non-conference play. Junior forward Reid Travis was a preseason All-American and leads the team in scoring (21.7) and rebounding (7.8). Dorian Pickens (12.6 PPG last year) and Marcus Sheffield (6.7 PPG) are both injured, in the team's last game (a 76-68 at Long Beach State on Dec. 3.), leaving Stanford with just even scholarship players. The shorthanded Cardinal hope to have Pickens and Sheffield back from their foot injuries in time for the Pac-12 opener against California on Dec. 30, but Haase wasn’t able to say when freshman Kezie Okpala might be cleared academically to return. The pick: The last time out, Stanford lost to Long Beach State, for the first time in school history. A two-week break should have them highly motivated to "stop the bleeding" against a Denver team that is 0-3 in true road games, getting outscored 83.7-to-65.3 PPG. Make Stanford a 10* play. |
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12-15-17 | Spurs +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 109-124 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: More than a few teams made major off-season moves in an effort to compete at a level equal to that of the Warriors but so far, only the Boston Celtics (even with the loss of Hayward) and the Houston Rockets, have seemed to "have gotten it right." Houston owns the NBA's best record at 22-4 (.) and will welcome the SA Spurs to the Toyota Center looking for a 12th straiight win (longest active winning streak). The 19-9 Spurs come to Houston having more than 'survived' without their best player, Kawhi Leonard, who is certainly ranked somewhere among the top-five players in the NBA, as the Spurs own the third-best record in the Western Conference. The teams are meeting for the first time since the San Antonio knocked off Houston in six games in the Western Conference semifinals last spring.
San Antonio:Leonard sat out the first 27 games while recovering from quad tendinopathy and scored 13 points on 6-of-12 shooting over 16 minutes in his debut on Tuesday, a shocking 95-89 loss at Dallas. "I thought he was wonderful," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich told reporters of Leonard. "He's trying to get some of the rust off and that kind of thing. Obviously, he's confident. He's a heck of a player, and it was really frustrating for him to just start getting loose and have to come off the court." Leonard's return did not get the San Antonio Spurs into the win column, but both he and the organization are looking at the bigger picture. The Spurs have struggled offensively without Leonard (25.5 PPG last season), averaging only 101.1 PPG (25th). In fact, Leonard's 13 points in 16 minutes on Tuesday is more points than any Spur has averaged per game this season, save for PF Aldridge, who has been the team's lone "go-to" scoring option this season I(22.7 PPG). The surprising stat is that without Leonard, considered the NBA's top defensive player alongside of Draymond Green, the Spurs come in leading the NBA in points allowed, at 97.5 per game. Houston: The Rockets have yet to lose since Chris Paul returned from a knee injury. Paul was injured in the team' season-opener (a Houston win at Golden St.) and are now 11-0 since his return. The future Hall of Famer scored 31 points and had 11 assists in Houston's 108-96 win over Charlotte on Wednesday and comes in averaging 16.2-5.2-9.6 on the season. . "It's all about building," Paul told reporters. "You can win however many games you want in a row. It means nothing if you're not playing the right way, but we're playing the right way and still trying to get better." Harden is averaging 31.6-5.1-9.4, Gordon (18.9) is an excellent "third scoring option" and center Capela is averaging a double-double (13.5 & 11.0) on the season. Only the Golden State Warriors average more points than Houston's 114.8 per game. The pick: I doubt in will take teh Spurs long to integrate Leonard into the flow of things and a visit to Houston, the NBA's hottest team right now, should be all the motivation Pop and his veteran team needs. Take the points and make the Spurs a 10* |
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12-14-17 | Mavs v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The 22-6 Golden State Warriors trail the 22-4 Houston Rockets in the West and also find themselves right behind the 24-6 Boston Celtics. However, there are 50-plus games remaining in the regular season,m plenty of time for Golden State to secure the home court edge come mid-April. Stephen Curry (26.3-5.1-6.6) has been out the last three games and is expected to be out the rest of this week (at least) while nursing an ankle injury and Draymond Green (10.1-7.2-7.3) remains day-to-day, after sitting out two of the last three with a shoulder injury, Despite all that, the Warriors won all six games of their recent road trip and will welcome the 8-20 Dallas Mavericks to Oracle Arena on a seven-game winning run. The Mavericks are tied for the West's worst record (with Memphis) but head to Golden State with a positive outlook after earning a 95-89 win over the San Antonio Spurs at home on Tuesday. Dallas: Dallas suffered single-digit losses at Boston, Milwaukee and Minnesota before coming home and putting it all together against the Spurs. The Mavericks saw guards Wes Matthews, Yogi Ferrell and J.J. Barea score 16 points apiece while holding San Antonio's backcourt trio of Tony Parker, Danny Green and Manu Ginobili to a combined 14 points. Golden State: Offense is never a problem for Golden State, regardless of which players are in or out of the lineup. The Warriors rank first in scoring (117.0 PPG), FG percentage (51.3%) and three-point percentage (40.0%). Kevin Durant (25.7-6.9-5.3) is averaging 33 points, 10 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 3.3 blocks in the last three games (with Curry out), to keep Golden State in the win column. "Our focus level is just on another level because of the injuries that we have on our team," Durant told reporters. "We have to be locked in on every single play; and that's hard to do in this league, and that's hard to do in December, especially after winning a championship."Klay Thompson (20.7) is scoring 23.3 PPG the last three and with that duo carrying the scoring load with Curry out, Golden State is also getting solid performances from role players like Jordan Bell, David West and Omri Casspi. Those three all scored in double figures in Monday's 111-104 win over the Portland Trail Blazers while going a combined 14-of-18 from the floor. "These night are really powerful for a team where guys are able to get out there who aren't usually in the lineup," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "It makes them feel good, it makes us feel good and it just strengthens the depth." The pick: The Mavericks stunned the San Antonio Spurs 95-89 in Kawhi Leonard's season debut on Tuesday night but now head to the 'lion's den' to face the Warriors. This Thursday game is the Warriors' second in a stretch of 10 in which they never leave the state of California. They play only once on the road, Monday against the Los Angeles Lakers, between now and a trip to Dallas on Jan. 3. The Mavs are 2-10 SU on the road, where they average only 97.2 PPG. Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging 116.8 PPG at home and have now been back home a few days off that six-game road trip. Look out below! Lay the points and make Golden State a 10* play. |
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12-14-17 | South Dakota v. Northern Arizona +11.5 | Top | 90-77 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The South Dakota Coyotes are 9-3 and will take their act on the road Thursday night to J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Flagstaff, Arizona to face the struggling Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, who fell to 2-8 on the season after being defeated by the San Diego Toreros, 79-51, this past Saturday night. It;'s been a dramatic fall from grace for the Lumberjacks, who won 23 games back in the 2014-15 season (lost in the CIT championship game at Evansville), before winning just five and nine games, these last two season. The Coyotes were just 18-17 last season but had won 24 and 26 the previous two, so the school's fast start has them on pace for at least, another 20-win season. South Dakota State: The Coyotes won their second straight game after edging the Eastern Washington Eagles, 75-73, this past Sunday. South Dakota State shot 54.9% from the floor and 81.0% (17-21) from the FT-Line in the win. The team typically shoots well, as the Coyotes enter making 49.5% from the floor on the season (ranks 35th). Leading the way for the Coyotes in the win was guard Matt Mooney. who had 19 points. Mooney (16.5-3.3-3.7) is the team's top scorer, followed by the 6-10 Tyler Hagedorn (13.1 & 5.1), guard Triston Simpson (8.8) and 6-6 forward Trey Burch-Manning (8.6 & 7.5). Defensively, South Dakota St. is holding opponents to an average of 67.2 PPG (86th) on on 40.4% shooting (70th). Northern Arizona: The lumberjacks were terrible on offensive end in the loss against San Diego and couldn’t fight back after falling behind by a 47-18 margin with 16:46 left in regulation. Northern Arizona shot just 26.7% from the floor, including 20.0% (3-15) from beyond the arc. Northern Arizona is averaging only 64.1 PPG (334th) on 38.4% shooting (341st). Jojo Anderson (10.4 PPG) is the team's lone double digit scorer, although Chris Bowling (9.7) and Torry Johnson (9.2) just miss. Defensively, the Lumberjacks allow 80.3 PPG (311th) on 49.7% shooting (340th). Just a reminder, there ar 351 Division I schools! The pick: It looks as if South Dakota Sate will be one of the better teams in the Summit League this season, while it's already been a long season for Northern Arizona (see above). However, this is a 'heavy' number for the Coyotes to lay on teh road and I'm calling for the home dog to 'bark loudly' Make Northern Arizona a 10* play. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL has seen TV ratings dip in 2017 and Thursday's matchup between the 4-9 Denver Broncos and the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts won't be able to help those ratings. The Broncos snapped their longest losing streak since joining the NFL in 1970 with a 23-0 shutout of the New York Jets last Sunday and the team was able to avoid tying its franchise futility record of nine consecutive losses set way back in 1967. As for the Colts, they have lost their last four games, including Sunday in that "very snowy" game in Buffalo13-7. Denver: The Broncos have tried three QBs this season and the trio has combined for 15 TDs and 18 INTs, while sporting a QB rating of 71.1. Trevor Siemian is back as the team's starter and he didn't do much vs. the Jets, going 19 of 31 for 200 yards one TD and no INTs. The Broncos only had 273 yards and that's not new, as they enter this game averaging only 17.6 PPG (24th). However, the Denver defense was spectacular, holding the Jets to six FDs and a total of just 100 yards. Denver now leads the NFL in total defense, allowing only 280.5 YPG. However, despite shutting out the Jets, Denver ranks just 24th in points allowed, at 24.2 PPG. A big reason for that is that Denver's TO ratio of minus-14 ranks 31st in the league. Indianapolis: QB Jacoby Brissett was only able to pass for 69 yards in the snow at Buffalo and enters with just 11 TDs and seven INTs on the season (2,611 passing yards with a QB rating of 82.5). Indy's offense is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) and its defense ranks 31st in points allowed (26.4 per) and 30th in yards allowed (375.3 YPG). Frank Gore had a career-high 36 rushing attempts vs. the Bills, while gaining 130 yards. Yes, the 34-year-old needs just 59 scrimmage yards to join Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith as the only players in NFL history with at least 12-plus consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards. However, the Colts' running game averages only 104.0 YPG (20th). The pick: The Broncos not only broke an eight-game losing streak by beating the Jets last Sunday but they also snapped an 0-8 ATS run, as well. The Broncos are not as bad as their record but the Colts are. Make Denver an 8* play. |
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12-13-17 | Villanova -8.5 v. Temple | Top | 87-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Villanova jumped from No. 4 in the AP poll the previous week to the poll's new No. 1 this past Monday. No. 1 Duke and No. 2 Kansas lost (falling back) and the Wildcats leapfrogged then-No.3 Michigan State to grab the top spot. It marks the third consecutive year in which Villanova has held the No. 1 ranking for at least once during those respective seasons (the Wildcats were No. 1 for three weeks two years ago and for seven weeks LY). The Wildcats wrap up their Philadelphia series round-robin (Big 5) against a 6-2 Temple Owls team that has won three of its last four. Villanova: The Wildcats moved up in the rankings but head coach Jay Wright knows that his team can improve, particularly after a sub-par performance its last time out. “It’s always an honor to be ranked No.1,” Wright said. “It’s great for the ‘Nova Nation and we appreciate the respect of the writers and coaches. We know it’s early, though, and we need to get a lot better.” Villanova trailed at halftime against La Salle on Sunday before rallying for a 77-68 victory. 'Nova has a sweet six-man rotation, led by guards Bridges (18.1 & 6.4), Brunson (17.2 & 4.8 APG), Booth (12.7) and DiVencenzo (11.8 & 4.5). Up front, 6-9 junior Paschall (9.0 & 4.8) and 6-9 freshman (9.0 & 7.5) are the main contributors. Villanova ranks 27th with 85.6% and 34th by allowing 63.3%. Temple: The Owls can't come close to matching the Wildcats' depth, although the Owls have two quality scorers in guards Alston (17.3 & 4.1) and Rose (17.3 & 6.1). They also have a good big man in the 6-10 Enechionyia, who averages 12.6 & 6.0. Temple has played one of the toughest schedules in the country and it's reflected in their RPI. 'Nova's Wright acknowledged that when saying, "This is an outstanding team and it's Temple-Villanova at their place. We know how big a challenge this is." The Owls are averaging 74.6 PPG (196th) and allowing 68.8 PPG (111th). The pick: Villanova’s re-emergence into nation’s elite status has not made Jay Wright forget about taking care of business at home in these Big 5 rivalries. In fact, 'Nova has won 21 straight over local Big Five foes. Sure, Temple is the last team to defeat the Wildcats in Big 5 action but that was a 76-61 victory back on Dec. 5, 2012. Temple is just 2-17 all-time against the top-ranked team in the country (which 'Nova currently is) and Jay Wright has saved some of his team's better recent efforts for Temple, which was ripped by 21 points last season and has lost by double digit margins the past six times, not coming closer than 15 points in any of those six. Make Villanova a 10* play. |
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12-12-17 | Lakers +3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Is the bigger story LaVar Ball bringing his traveling circus to the Big Apple with a Big Baller Brand pop-up shop in Manhattan or son Lonzo Ball making his NBA debut at Madison Square Garden, when the Lakers take on the Knicks? The Lakers had lost five straight games when they began a four-game road trip with a win at Philadelphia and then picked up another "W" at Charlotte on Saturday. They will take a 10-15 record into tonight's game. The Knicks are 13-13 on the season but are a "tough out" at Madison Square Garden. In fact, New York is tied for the Eastern Conference lead with 12 home wins after Sunday's 111-107 victory over Atlanta (12-5 at MSG, so far). LA Lakers: "This is a sign of growth for sure," coach Like Walton told reporte.2 PPG, so I'm taking the points with an LA team that's rs after the 110-99 victory over the Hornets. "And even Philly was a sign of growth because even though we blew a 16-point lead, what would've happened in the past was once we blew that lead we would've just completely melted down. ... We've been able to win some of those games at home, but on the road we haven't been able to find a way once that crowd gets into it to get the defensive stops you need to win games. We (won) in Philly and we did that again tonight." Ball is the most divisive NBA rookie in decades (thanks to his idiot father) and comes in averaging 8.6-6.8-7.1. His horrific shooting (32.1%, including 24.6% on threes) draws most of the criticism and it's not unusual for Walton to sit him down at crucial times. Kyle Kuzma (Utah) was drafted 25 spots below No. 2 pick Ball but is averaging 16.0 points and 6.7 rebounds off the bench (he started while Nance was sidelined). He has double-doubles in three of the team's last four games, his best stretch of the season in that regard. NY Knicks: New York is getting inspired play in recent weeks from its first-round pick, Frank Ntilikina. The PG is averaging 8.4 points in December after averaging 4.7 points in October and November combined. The Knicks are also seeing a development in second-year guard Ron Baker, who played 31 minutes Sunday in New York's 111-107 win over the Atlanta Hawks. The Knicks are getting some quality minutes from their youngsters. However, no New York player gets talked about more than Kristaps Porzingis, who is still just 22 and two years younger than Baker, despite being in the third month of his third NBA season (Porzingis is averaging 25.5 & 6.6). The pick: Yes, the Knicks have been very good at home but the Lakers come in confident and with surprising depth and balance for a 10-15 team. Eight players are averaging between Ball's 8.6 PPG and leading scorer Ingram's 16.2 PPG, so I'm taking the points with an LA team that's a single point away from being 6-3 ATS its last nine games. Make LA an 8* play. |
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12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati -11 | Top | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bearcats opened 7-0 but lost at crosstown rival Xavier on and then fell short 66-60 for their second straight loss against then-No. 5 Florida in the Never Forget Tribute Classic in Newark, N.J., on Saturday, However, Cincy did manage to remain in the AP poll, grabbing the 25th and final spot in Monday's poll. The Mississippi State Bulldogs ran their season-opening winning streak to eight games with a 95-62 rout of Division II North Georgia in their latest outing and despite being one of just seven Division I unbeatens, the Bulldogs remain unranked (Georgetown is the only other unbeaten to also not be ranked). Mississippi State: The Bulldogs aren't ranked because the strength of its schedule to date leaves much to be desired. In fact, even with more than a few cupcakes on that schedule, the team is fortunate to be unbeaten, as they are committing an average of 15.3 turnovers per game, which is tied with Idaho State for 279th among 351 Division I schools. However, the team shoots well (49.6% ranks 34th in the nation) and defends well (61.9 PPG ranks 21st and its defensive FG percentage of 37.5 ranks 17th). Tyson Carter leads five players in double figures at 14.0 PPG, joined by a pair of Weatherspoon brothers, Quinndary (13.2-5.6-4.6) and Nick (10.9), plus the 6-10 Holman (11.0 & 7.2). Cincinnati: The Bearcats were in the thick of it against Florida but committed a whopping 21 turnovers. "We've got good players turning the ball over, which is a big, big problem," Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin said after the game. "It's hard to win when you turn the ball over, nearly impossible to win. If we had won this game somehow with the turnover line it would have been a modern miracle." Six players are part of the main rotation, averaging from 6.9 to 13.2 PPG. The 6-8 Clark leads the way (13.2 & 8.6) with PG Evans (13.1-3.6-3.5) right behind him. Cincy teams always play defense and this year's team is allowing just 61.8 PPG (20th) on 36.8% shooting (11th). The pick: Mississippi St. is 8-0 but Cincy comes in as a double digit favorite. There IS a reason for that. The Bulldogs are off to their best start since the 2003-04 season but a closer look reveals that their strength of schedule ranks 349th out of 351 Division I teams. This visit to Cincinnati also marks their first true road game of the season so far and will be the team's only road game in its first 14 (some schedule-maker!). The Bearcats' only two losses have come to city rival Xavier (now ranked 10th) on Dec. 2 and on Saturday to then-No. 5 Florida. Cronin clearly wasn't happy with his team's effort in losses to nationally-ranked Xavier and Florida, suggesting that winning made his team "soft" and adding that "it makes you arrogant and it makes your players content." I believe "his kids" got the message. Miss. St. is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Make Cincy a 10* play. |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +11.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 35 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Steelers won a 39-38 thriller Sunday night over the Ravens for the team's eighth straight win. Pittsburgh has now matched New England's eight-winning streak (longest-active in the NFL) and its 11-2 record ensures that the Steelers will be no worse than tied the with Pats when the teams meet next Sunday at Heinz Field. It's the showdown all NFL fans have been waiting for and the Pats need to "keep up their end'" by earning a ninth consecutive win in Week 14's MNF contest at Hard Rock Stadium againts the Miami Dolphins. A win will also give the Pats an 11-2 mark but while the Dolphins are just 5-7, winning in Miami has not come easy for the Pats in recent years. In fact, the Pats had lost three straight trips to Miami from 2013-2015 (the 2015 loss cost them the home-field playoff edge & the Pats would lose in Denver for the AFC title!), before routing the Dolphins 35-14 last season. The Dolphins halted a five-game losing skid with a 35-9 drubbing of the Denver Broncos last weekend and while it was the team's best effort of the season, it did come over a Broncos team which had lost eight in a row before yesterday's 23-0 shutout over the Jets. New England: The ageless Tom Brady is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 3,632 yards with 26 TDs and just four INTs, giving hima 109.7 QB rating. The Pats lead the NFL in passing (297.6 YPG) and three receivers have 50-plus catches. TE Rob Gronkowski has a team-high 55 with a team-high 7 TDs, WR Brandin Cooks has 53 with a team-high 16.7 YPC and RB James White has 51 catches (WR Danny Amendola just misses with 46 receptions). The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 120.6 YPG (9th), as Dion Lewis has run fro 204 yards (6.8 YPC) the least two weeks, with the Pats rushing for 191 and 196 yards, respectively. As good as the Pats' offense has been, it's defense is back to being one of the league's best. After getting ripped for 32.0 PPG during the team's 2-2 start, that same unit has not allowed more than 17 points in any of its eight straight wins, allowing an average of just 11.9 PPG. The defense now ranks 4th on the season at 18.6 PPG. Miami: The Dolphins were gouged for a 177 points (35.4 per) during their five-game losing streak before sending the Broncos to their eighth straight defeat. Miami got a pair of safeties and a TD from its defense and special teams, which was a much-needed effort. QB Jay Cutler passed for 235 yards with two TDs and two INTs, giving him 15 TDs and 11 INTs on the season (QB rating of 82.1). Miami's passing offense averages only 207.9 YPG (20th), almost 100 YPG less than New England's and Miami is averaging just 17.4 PPG (27th), just shy of 12 PPG less than the Pats. With Ajayi traded away to Philly (you explain why?), the Dolphins now rank 29th in rushing, averaging only 84.7 YPG. The Miami defense had been getting gouged prior to last Sunday's win (see above) and was ripped for 35 points on 417 yards up in New England back in Week 12. The pick: Hard to see the Pats losing here, with so much on the line next week in Pittsburgh. What's more, the Pats haven't lost a regular season road game since Week 17 of the 2015 season (1/3/16). Then again, that loss did come in Miami, the Dolphins' third straight home win over the Pats at the time (Dolphins did lose at home to the Pats last season, 35-14). The Pats are far from healthy coming into this game plus Gronk is suspended, Dion Lewis is sick, Chris Hogan is just coming off a shoulder injury and Tom Brady has missed practice due to a banged up Achilles. Brady always plays and Lewis is expected to go but this is a huge number to lay on the road. The following stat clinches things, as the home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two AFC East rivals. Make Miami a 10* play. |
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12-11-17 | Celtics -7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 85-108 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The 23-5 Boston Celtics own the most wins in the NBA but the 20-4 Houston Rockets have caught them for the league's highest winning percentage, .833 to .821. The Celtics opened a quick three-game road trip with a 105-102 loss at San Antonio (on Manu's three-pointer!) but then the Celtics shut down the Pistons in a 91-81 victory at Detroit on Sunday. Boston ends it trip in Chicago tonight, facing a Bulls team which owns the NBA's worst record at 5-20 but one that is also coming off back-to-back victories,. Boston: Al Horford rebounded from a season-worst two-point performance against the Spurs to lead his team with 18 points at Detroit, while chipping in nine rebounds, six assists, two blocks and zero turnovers. Horford (14.0-8.1-5.3) has been an unsung hero for the Celtics, overshadowed by the play of Kyrie Irving. Boston's new PG added 16 points at Detroit but has been every bit an MVP candidate averaging 23.7 PPG and 4.8 APG .Playing on a short turnaround, Boston will again be without forward Marcus Morris (12.1 & 5.5), who didn't play on Sunday and who has already been ruled out for Monday due to a left knee injury. Rookie forward Jayson Tatum was 3-for-5 from 3-point range Sunday to improve his NBA-leading percentage from long distance to 52.3%, while averaging 14.8 PPG on 51.2% shooting overall. Last year's No. 1 choice, Jaylen Brown (14.7 & 5.8), is proving in his second season just why he was Boston's top choice last year. Chicago: The Bulls had lost 10 in a row but then won 1119-11 (OT) in Charlotte on Friday, They then followed with a 104-102 win at home the next night over the Knicks. Has Nikola Mirotic's return to the lineup been the difference? Mirotic missed the first 23 games due to facial fractures and a concussion resulting from a preseason fight with teammate Bobby Portis. He scored just six points vs. the Hornets on Friday but had 19 points in 20 minutes versus the Knicks. Portis has played 16 games since his suspension from the fight and has averaged 11.7 & 6.6 off the bench. Mirotic's big effort Saturday night was part of a solid showing for Chicago's five reserves, who combined for 54 points on 21-of-37 shooting with 14 assists and two turnovers. PG Kris Dunn (12.8-4.9-5.1) led the starters with 17 points and nine assists and he is averaging 17.5 points, eight assists and 6.3 rebounds during a four-game stretch. Lauri Markkanen, the 7-footer from Arizona, has been as good as any rookie this season, leading the team in scoring (14.7) and rebounding (8.1). The pick: Chicago has won four straight regular-season meetings with Boston at home but this is a very different Chicago team and very different Boston team. The Bulls are just 3-8 SU at home and on the season, are averaging a modest 103.2 PPG, to rank 27th. The Celtics come in with the NBA's best road record at 11-3 and are also a money-making 11-3 ATS as well. Boston is the league's top defensive team, allowing 96.1 PPG on 43.5% shooting, which ranks second-best. Take the road favorite and make Boston a 10* play. |
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12-11-17 | Drake v. Minnesota -19 | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota returned all five starters from a 24-win team last year and opened the new season 7-0. However, the "not-so" Golden Gophers have lost three of their last four games, including back-to-back double-digit losses at Nebraska and Arkansas. The team's current AP ranking may be No. 14 but that's only until Monday's new poll is released (bye-bye top-25!). The Drake Bulldogs visit Williams Arena tonight and have defeated Wake Forest earlier this season and more recently, snapped a three-game losing streak Saturday with a 19-point win over Omaha. Drake checks in 5-4 on the season but that's pretty good news for a team which hasn't had as many as 10 wins the last three seasons (9, 7, & 7). Drake: Senior guard Reed Timmer scored 27 points to pace Drake in its win over Omaha. He enters averaging 22.1 PPG (4.1 RPG), while shooting 49.5% (56.1% on threes) and 91.9% from the line. Fellow guards McMurray (11.6) and Woodward (11.4) join him in double figures, as does the 6-8 McGlynn (11.0 & 6.0). However, Drake's defense leaves much to be desired, allowing 78.6 PPG (293rd) on 47.4% shooting (300th). Minnesota: Head coach Richard Pitino is not in panic mode, at least not yet. "Certainly we have our deficiencies we have to fix, but the sky's not falling," Pitino told reporters after the Gophers allowed the Razorbacks to shoot 57.4 percent from the floor and 43.5 percent from beyond the arc. The 6-6 Jordan Murphy leads the team in scoring (19.9) and rebounding (12.5), posting a double-double in all 11 games. The 6-10 Lynch (11.0 & 8.1 plus 4.2 blocks per game) joins Murphy up front plus the Gophers have a sweet trio of guards in Mason (15.8-4.0-4.5), Coffey (14.2 & 4.6 and McBrayer (8.5). Coffey has scored at least 10 points in six straight games. The pick: This is a huge number but Drake is 0-3 on the road, while allowing 88.5 PPG. This is a the wrong place and wrong time to visit Minnesota, reeling from back-to-back road losses. Minnesota averages a whopping 93.5 PPG at home and the play is to lay the points. Make Minnesota 10* selection. |
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12-10-17 | 76ers v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 124-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The 13-13 New Orleans Pelicans are hoping to cap a short four-game homestand at 2-2 when they host the 13-12 Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday night. The Pelicans are none too happy after blowing a nine-point lead with only 3 1/2 minutes left, then losing in overtime to struggling Sacramento on Friday night. The 76ers visit New Orleans on a three-game slide, after losing 105-98 at Cleveland last night, while star center Joel Embiid was rested. Philadelphia Embiid is expected back for this one after sitting out the first game of a back-to-back (for the third time this season) last night. However, forward Robert Covington (15.3 & 6.2) left the loss with a back injury after tumbling into the stands. Covington was 5-for-7 from 3-point range and recorded 19 points before his injury,and JJ Redick (16.1) matched him in the scoring column in the loss to Cleveland. Head coach Brett Brown did not have an immediate update after the game on Covington. Embiid scored 33 points and had seven rebounds, six assists and five blocks in a career-high 36 minutes. in his last game. He has scored at least 20 points in five straight games and is averaging 23.5 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.0 blocks in 30.2 minutes per game. Ben Simmons is a (the?) leading candidate for rookie of the year, averaging 17.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 2.2 steals. He played his only year of college basketball at LSU, 80 miles from New Orleans, has had a spectacular season after missing his entire rookie campaign. The 6-10 point forward recorded three triple-doubles in his first 23 games. The only other players in NBA history to do that were Oscar Robertson (seven) and Magic Johnson (three). New Orleans: Anthony Davis returned from a groin injury to provide 18 points in the overtime loss to the Kings on Friday, and head coach Alvin Gentry is well aware his team can't lose games like this (to teams like the Kings), if it is serious about contending for Western Conference playoff spot."You can't give Knute Rockne speeches every night," Gentry told reporters. "You know, as an athlete, it's your job. And it's our job as coaches (to get them ready). We have to have the energy to go out and play against a team like that and make sure we are getting the job done." Davis was expected to play about 25 minutes Friday but was able to give his team 31, and the 24-year-old reported no issues with the groin. New Orleans will hope for Davis to provide a little more support for fellow big man DeMarcus Cousins, who scored 38 points against Sacramento and is averaging 39 in 40.5 minutes over the last two games. The Cousins (26.3 & 12.6)/Davis (24.9 & 10.7) duo is formidable plus guards Holiday (16.6-4.3-5.5) and Moore (12.4) join them in double digits. PG Rajon Rondo was rested on Friday but he's coming around nicely, averaging 11.5 points on 58.8 percent shooting and 9.8 assists over the first four contests in December. The pick: Cousins joins Embiid as the only NBA players averaging at least 23 points and 11 rebounds per game this season and with Davis back (and Rondo as well), I expect the Pelicans to grab the win here after "giving one away" against the Kings. The 'price is right' to make the Pelicans a 10* play. |
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12-10-17 | Jets v. Broncos | Top | 0-23 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: It's NFL Week 14 and the New York Jets are in Denver to take on the Broncos. There were many who thought that the Jets would be battling the Browns and maybe the 49ers for the overall No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft as the 2017 season opened and there were more than a few who thought that the Broncos could rebound from a record in 2016, to challenge the Chiefs and Raiders in the AFC West. The Jets opened 0-2 and the refrain, "Here we go again" was prominent in the New York area. However, the Jets rebounded to win three in a row after that and while the team comes into this contest a modest 5-7, the Jets have been way more competitive than almost anyone would have believed (Jets are 7-4-1 ATS). As for Denver, a 3-1 start to the 2017 season has quickly turned into a 'nightmare,' as the Broncos get set to host the Jets looking to break an eight-game losing streak in which the team has also gone 0-8 ATS (now that's bad football!).
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12-10-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -120 | 113 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-2 Minnesota Vikings are riding an eight-game winning streak (tied with the Pats for the NFL's longest-active one) into Sunday's game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, where they will face the 8-4 Carolina Panthers. The Vikings have all but clinched the NFC North (four up with four to play) but are still battling the 10-2 Eagles for the NFC's top seed (Minnesota currently owns the tie-breaker). The Panthers have lost twice to the Saints in 2017 which is bad news but with New Orleans losing Thursday night in Atlanta, Carolina has a chance to move into a first-place tie with the Saints by beating the Vikings in this one. Also of importance is winning to stay ahead of the 8-5 Falcons, as the Panthers would fall back into a tie with Atlanta if they lose here. Minnesota: Case Keenum was expected be a stop-gap measure at QB, hoping that either Bradford or even Bridgewater would be able to get back on the field. However, he's turned in one of 2017's most surprising performances, as he's 8-2 as Minnesota's starting QB this season. He's completing 67.5% for 2,703 yards with 16 TDs and just five INTs for a 98.6 QB rating. He's also gotten better than expected help from Minnesota's "no-name" RBs, as after rookie Dalvin Cook was lost for the season, Murray (572 yards) and McKinnon (414 yards) have filled in admirably. The Vikings rank 6th with 122.8 YPG on the ground. The offense averages 23.8 PPG (11th) but it's the defense which has made the bigger difference, ranking second in both points allowed (17.0 per) and total defense (289.1 YPG). Carolina: The Panthers have been tough to figure in 2017. They have looked very good at times, like in their 33-30 win at New England but then just helpless like in a 17-3 loss in Chicago to the Bears. Cam Newton has to carry the team and sometimes he's just asked to do too much. He's nowhere near the numbers of his 2015 MVP season but his 515 yards rushing helps Carolina average 127.8 YPG on the ground (5th-best). The offense is scoring slightly less than Minnesota's at 22.4 PPG (16th) and while the Carolina D is solid (10th in allowing 19.8 PPG and 6th with 297.6 YPG), it's not quite in Minnesota's league. The pick: Both teams have plenty to play for and at first blush, one could have to give the edge to the home-standing Panthers, as the Vikings are playing a third straight tough game on the road (at Detroit on Thanksgiving and at Atlanta last Sunday). However, Minnesota is just not 'backing off,' as the Vikings are looking for not only a ninth straight win but also an eighth straight cover. No way Newton is looking forward to facing that Minnesota D, as in last year's meeting, he was picked off three times and sacked eight times in a 22-10 home loss. Speaking of home, the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Make Minnesota an 8* play. |
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12-10-17 | Bears +6 v. Bengals | Top | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 113 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-9 Chicago Bears will visit Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday to take on the 5-7 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bears average 275.8 YPG on offense (ranking 32nd of 32 teams) and the Bengals average 280.8 YPG, ranking 31st. The Bears limp in on a five-game losing streak (well out of the playoff 'picture') while the Bengals had won two in a row before a 23-20 loss to the Steelers on Monday night (Cincy led 17-0 in the very late second quarter). Chicago: The Bears have given up on Mike Glennon (66.4% completions but just 188.8 YPG with 4 TDs & 5 INTs for a 76.9 QB rating) but first round draft pick Mitch Trubisky hasn't been much better, completing only 54.9 percent for 138.6 YPG with 5 TDs & 4 INTs (QB rating of 74.6). Jordan Howard is the Bears’ top rusher with 885 yards (4.2 YPC & 5 TDs) but rookie RB Tarik Cohen (267 RY / 3.9 YPC) is the team's leading receiver with 39 catches and averages only 7.8 YPC. As for Da Bears' defense, it's middle-of-the-road ranking 14th in both points allowed (22.2 PPG) and yards allowed (333.2 YPG). Cincinnati: QB Andy Dalton threw for 234 yards and two TDs (zero INTs) on 21-of-36 passing Monday night. He's now thrown 11 TD passes without an INT (over 171 attempts) over Cincy's last six games, although the Bengals are just 3-3 SU in that span. Giovani Bernard was the Bengals’ top rusher with 77 yards on 13 carries but he still doesn't have 200 yards rushing on the season, as the Bengals rank 30th in rushing, averaging only 80.2 YPG. The Cincy D has been fine, allowing 19.8 PPG (11th) on 334.1 YPG (16th). The pick: Cincy is still alive in the AFC wild card race mostly because the Bengals have been able to beat DeShone Kizer (twice), Jacoby Brissett, and Brock Osweiler. Can Cincy best Mitch Trubisky, as well? That's fair but the Bengals not only dropped a brutal 23-20 decision to the Steelers on Monday but they but may have also lost RB Joe Mixon (leading rusher at 518 yards) and linebacker Vontaze Burfict to concussions in the hard-hitting affair. Both players missed practice during the week while in concussion protocol. Note that Chicago kept Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers out of the end zone the entire way last week, losing only when former Bear Robbie Gould booted five FGs in his return to the Windy City, including a game-winner with just four seconds to play. The Bears have been within one score (except at Philly) in all losses with Trubisky, while the Bengals have only covered 11 of their last 30 regular season games. Make Chicago a 10* play. |
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12-10-17 | Tulane v. Florida State -13 | Top | 53-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
Tulane" The Green Wave were every bit of a six-win team last season (they earned those 25 losses) but it's been quite a turnaround in the early going of this season. 6-6 guard Melvin Frazier has improved in just about every statistical category over last season and, with a line of 18.8-7.4-2.8, has helped to carry the Green Wave to seven wins and a chance at their first winning season since 2012-13. Fellow guard Reynolds is right behind him (16.9 & 5.4) plus the 6-9 Sehic (12.4 & 7.4) is the team's best frontcourt player. Two more guards, Cornish (10.4 & 4.0 APG) and Ona Embo (9.6) round out the major contributors. Tulane averages 80.2 PPG (86th) on 47.6% shooting (77th). Florida State: The Seminoles won 26 games before losing the second round of the NCAAs last season. However, four starters are gone from that team, including guards Bacon (17.2), and Rathan-Mayes (10.6 & 4.8 APG) plus the "one & done" 6-10 Isaac (12.0 & 7.8). Mann was the lone returning starter and the 6-6 junior guard leads the team in scoring (16.0), while adding 5.8 RPG. Three more guards, CJ Walker (12.2), Angola (12.0) and MJ Walker (8.6) give FSU an excellent perimeter game. The surprise has been the 6-8 Phil Cofer. After a freshman season in which he averaged 6.9 points and 4.5 rebounds, Cofer appeared on his way to becoming a mainstay for the Seminoles but that hasn't been the case until this season. He averaged fewer than 13 minutes and four points over the last two seasons but he's averaging 13.4 PPG and 5.5 RPG, joining the 6-9 Kabengele (9.0 & 5,1) in the frontcourt. That group helps FSU to an average of 89.0 PPG (15th) on 50.6% shooting (21st). The D on a Leonard Hamilton-coached team is always good and this year's team is allowing 68.8 PPG (103rd). The pick: Florida State is one of eight unbeaten teams in Division I (number is falling fast, just ask Duke!) and will look to remain among that select company when it plays Tulane Sunday in Tampa, Fla. The Seminoles earned their seventh victory by 15 or more points Wednesday against Loyola Maryland and their 8-0 start is the best for Florida State since opening 10-0 in 2003-04. I'm laying the points here and making FSU a 10* play. |
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12-09-17 | Portland State v. Santa Clara -4 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Portland State Vikings won their third straight game and improved to 7-2 on the season after defeating the Loyola Marymount Lions 94-85 this past Wednesday. The Vikings will travel to the Leavey Center on Saturday night to face the 3-5 Santa Clara Broncos. Santa Clara opened 1-5 but has won back-to-back homes games, 89-57 over Northern Arizona and 72-57 over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Portland State: The Vikings have a new head coach in Barret Perry and the team's 7-2 start is confidence-building, after the team has won 15, 13 and 15 games the last three seasons, respectively. Portland State was able to pull away from the Lions this past Wednesday, helped by Marymount committing an incredible 33 turnovers! Bryce Canda had a double-double with 20 points and 13 rebounds to lead the way. This guard-oriented lineup features four double digits scorers on the perimeter. North is tops with 17.9 PPG, followed by Canda (17.7), who also leads in rebounding at 7.4 per. Mayhew (10.8) and Woods (10.2) round out the quartet, As a team, Portland averages 91.6 PPG, which ranks 6th in the nation. Santa Clara: After routing Northern Arizona, the Broncos did much the same to Pine Bluff (see above). Leading the way was Matt Hauser (10.1) who had 21 points. He's joined by two other scorers in the backcourt, Feagin (18.2) and Caruso (11.00, who also leads the team in rebounding at 7.1 per. The 6-8 Vrankic (11.0 & 4.4) is the team's best frontcourt player. The pick: Santa Clara averages more than 20 PPG less than Portland State at 74.3 per but note the Broncos have held back-to-back opponents to 57 points here at the Leavey Center. It's not as if Santa Clara can keep Portland State under 60 points (lowest point total was 69 vs Butler) but the Broncos should at least slow them down. It says something here that Santa Clara is favored over a team averaging almost 92 PPG and whose only losses this season have come against Butler and Duke at the Phil Knight Invitational Tournament. Lay it and make Santa Clara an 8* play. |
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12-09-17 | Magic +2 v. Hawks | Top | 110-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Magic just beat the Hawks 110-106 Wednesday in Orlando but it took overtime and they did not cover as a 6 1/2-point favorite. The Hawks haven't played since, while the Magic are coming off a 103-89 home loss last night to the Nuggets. Evan Fournier, the Magic's second-leading scorer at 18.3 PPG ,scored 27 points in Orlandos home overtime victory over the Hawks on Wednesday but he won't be available for Saturday's rematch after he sprained his right ankle at the start of overtime. More bad news comes in that Orlando's leading scorer Aaron Gordon (18.7 PPG) will also be out of the lineup. He was injured when he collided with Denver guard Gary Harris in Friday's loss and won't play again until he clears the NBA's concussion protocol.The good news for the 11-16 Magic is that the Hawks are a brutal 5-19 on the season, including just 2-9 at home Orlando: Losing Fournier and now Gordon is just the latest injury blow for the Magic, who started the season 8-3 before going into a slide. The Magic are also without Terrence Ross (9.0) and rookie defensive standout Jonathan Isaac (6.1 & 4.4). Ross has missed the past five games with a knee injury and Isaac the last 15 with a sprained ankle. Gordon has been a real bright spot admitted head coach Frank Vogel. "Yeah, it's tough, but everybody in the league has injuries," Vogel said after the game. "You know we can't feel sorry for ourselves now. We have to go get a win (Saturday) night." Atlanta: The Hawks have lost four of their last five games and have injury woes of their own. Center Dewayne Dedmon (11.1 & 7.8) is expected to miss his fifth straight game due to a leg injury.and rookie forward John Collins (11.5 & 7.1) will miss his fourth straight contest with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss another week to 10 days. PG Dennis Schroder has emerged as the club's top scorer (20.5 PPG plus 6.5 APG) and is averaging 24 points over the past four games. Schroder scored 26 points in Wednesday's loss to Orlando for his 13th 20-point outing of the campaign. Second-year forward Taurean Prince is averaging 12.5 points and scored 19 on 6-of-8 shooting against the Magic after being just 11-of-34 shooting over the previous three games. The pick: The Hawks have won 11 of the last 14 home matchups with the Magic but let's remember, that was with a much different team. The Hawks have been to 10 straight postseasons (only the Spurs own a longer consecutive streak) but this year's team is a playoff imposter and is on pace for a 17-win season. Expect the Magic to win this quick turnaround re-match, as well. Make Orlando a 10* play. |
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12-09-17 | Minnesota v. Arkansas -3.5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Golden Gophers opened 7-0 but they have not been very 'golden' lately, entering this game 8-2 (ranked No. 14) but losers of two of their last three. The team's first loss was 86-81 to Miami at home in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge on Nov. 29 ('Canes are currently ranked 10th) and then this past Tuesday at Nebraska. Minnesota shot just 32.4 percent from the floor in that 78-68 loss to the Cornhuskers (Nebraska is 7-3). The Gophers travel to Fayetteville and Bud Walton Arena on Saturday evening to take on 6-2 Arkansas. The Razorbacks bounced back from a 26-point loss at Houston on Dec. 2 with a resounding 92-66 victory over Colorado State on Tuesday. Minnesota: "They just played better than we did and when we needed to get stops, we couldn't," Minnesota head coach Richard Pitino told reporters after the Nebraska loss. "Offensively, obviously, we didn't have it going. If you don't have it going offensively, you've got to get stops and get out on the break. We did not do that. Credit to them."Minnesota has all five starters back from last year's 24-win team and is being led by 6-6 junior forward Jordan Murphy (19.9 & 12.8). Senior PG checks in at Nate Mason (15.7-4.0-4.4, after averaging 20.3 points over his last four games. Reggie Lynch is a 6-10 senior center and averages 11.6 & 8.6 plus leads the nation with 4.5 blocks per game. 6-8 forward Coffey (13.8 & 4.5) and SG McBrayer (8.8 & 3.4 APG) round out the starting-five. Arkansas: The Razorbacks won 26 games last season, losing in the NCAAs second round. Three starters are gone from that team, including leading scorer Hannahs (14.4) and the 6-10 Kingsley (12.0 & 7.7). Arkansas has solid balance this year, although four of the team's five double digit scorers are all guards. Barford leads the way with 19.6 PPG (4.1 RPG & 3.4 APG), followed by Macon (14.6), Beard (11.9) and Jones (10.8). The 'outsider' is 6-11 freshman Gafford, who averages 12.0 & 5.8. The Razorbacks average 87.2 PPG (25th) with Barford (46.2 percent), Macon (43.9) and Jones (40.5) coming into this contest as one of two trios in the nation shooting over 40 percent from three-point range with at least 35 attempts. The pick: The Golden Gophers average 87.3 PPG (23rd) but come in struggling on the offensive the last few games. That not good news when playing at Arkansas, which is famous for its defensive pressure. The Razorbacks forced 19 turnovers, raising its season average to 16.4 per in their win over Colorado State and held the Rams to 36.5 percent shooting. Murphy will face extra defensive attention from Arkansas’s deep, athletic forecourt plus center Reggie Lynch will be challenged by Arkansas’s prized, five-star 6-11 freshman Daniel Gafford, who has lived up to teh hype. The Razorbacks' first eight opponents were a combined 42-25 through Wednesday's games and Arkansas is 4-0 at home, outscoring opponents 92.8-to-62.5 PPG. Make Arkansas a 10* play. |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -104 | 113 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Army Black Knights are 8-3 and headed to the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl two days before Christmas to meet San Diego State, marking the school's first back-to-back bowl appearances since 1984-85. The Navy Midshipmen have gone a disappointing 6-5 but will host Virginia in the Military Bowl on Dec. 28 in Annapolis, Md, as Navy makes its bowl appearance 14th bowl appearance in the last 15 years (missed only in 2011 since 2003!). Also, after Navy defeated Air Force 48-45 on Oct. 7 and Army shut out the Falcons 21-0 on Nov. 4, this marks the first time since 2012 that the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy is on the line for both teams when the two service academies meet Saturday at Lincoln Financial Field. Army: QB Ahmad Bradshaw is completing just 30.8 percent of his passes for 259 yards with one TD and two INTs, as Army ranks dead-last with 30.5 YPG passing. However, Army ranks first in rushing (368.1 YPG), leading the way for an offense which ranks 43rd in scoring at 31.2 PPG. Bradshaw leads in rushing with 1,472 yards (7.8 YPC) with 11 TDs. A trio of RBs contribute 517 to 668 yards, while averaging from 5.4,-to-7.3 YPC and combining for 21 rushing TDs. Defensively, Army has done a very solid job, allowing a modest 21.6 PPG (30th) on 360.9 YPG (41st). Navy: QB Zach Abey has led Navy to average three times as many passing YPG than Army but that means Navy checks in averaging only 91.2 YPG. Abey is also Navy's top rusher, having gained 1,322 yards (4.8 YPC) and 14 TDs. RB Malcom Perry adds 818 yards on 8.9 YPC with eight TDs. Navy is just behind Army in rushing YPG, checking in at 347.5 YPG (2nd-best) and not far behind in scoring at 30.4 PPG (50th). However, Navy doesn't match up as well defensively, as it is allowing 29.2 PPG (85th) on 399.8 YPG (72nd). The pick: A win here for Army will mean its first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 (now that's a BIG deal!). There is no argument that Army is playing better football than Navy right now, winning six of its last seven games and losing just once since the beginning of October. However, Navy is favored because the Midshipmen have dominated this series over the years, winning 16 of the last 18 meetings. Army won last year's contest but hasn't beaten Navy in back-to-back years since 1995-96. Army's win last season came after having lost 14 straight I can't help but make Navy a 10* play here in this revenge role. |
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12-08-17 | Oklahoma +1.5 v. USC | Top | 85-83 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-1 Oklahoma Sooners will visit Los Angeles to take on the 4-2 USC Trojans on Friday night in the Basketball Hall of Fame's Hoophall L.A. Classic played at Staples Center. The Sooners have the better current record, although it's USC which comes in ranked at No. 25 in the latest AP poll. However, after opening 4-0, the Trojans have lost at home to then No. 16 Texas A&M (75-59) and followed with a 72-55 loss at SMU. USC is now looking to avoid a third straight loss against an Oklahoma team that has lost just once (92-83 to Arkansas in the PK80 Invitational) and is knocking on the top-25 'door' with a four-game win streak that includes a 90-80 neutral-floor win over 2017 Final Four participant Oregon in that same PK80 Invitational in Portland,. Oklahoma: 6-2 freshman Trae Young scored a season-high 43 points to go along with a game-high seven assists and two steals in not only leads Oklahoma in scoring but his 28.7 PPG also leads the nation! Young, who also averages 8.7 APG, can't wait to play on the same court of former Oklahoma star Blake Griffin of the Clippers, not to mention the Lakers of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant. "I've been able to play in the (Chicago) Bulls arena, the Brooklyn Nets arena, obviously Portland and now L.A.," Young said. "It's going to be fun. That's a legendary place to play. ... I can't wait for it." The Sooners ranks second in the nation at 94.4 PPG and shoot 50.5 percent as a team (24th). Junior guard Christian James (11.9 & 4.0) and 6-9 senior forward Khadeem Lattin (11.1 & 9.1) are also are averaging in double figures. USC; Last year's team set a school-record with 26 victories and made a surprising run to NCAA's Sweet 16 and with all five starters returning, were considered a 'sleeper pick' to make it to the school's first Final Four since 1954. However, after that 4-0 start, USC has been humbled in back-to-back games (see above). The team's current five starters average between 9.0 and 16.0 PPG, led by the 'Twin Tower' duo of the 6-11 Metu (16.0 & 7.7) and the 6-10 Boatwright (15.7 & 7.7). PG McLaughlin also scores in double digits at 13.5 PPG, while leading the team with 5.8 APG. The pick: USC's loss to A&M is not much of a concern (Aggies are currently ranked 7th) but the Trojans led 30-27 at halftime at SMU last Saturday, before getting outscored 45-25 in the second half by the Mustangs. It was deja vu all over again, as six days earlier Texas A&M used a late 19-3 run to pull away for a 16-point victory at the Galen Center. USC is already without G De'Antthony Melton, who is being withheld because of eligibility issues stemming from the FBI investigation of assistant coach Tony Bland plus will also be without PG Derryck Thornton, a Duke transfer who is expected to miss three-to-four weeks after dislocating his right shoulder Nov. 28. Back-to-back lopsided loss is a concern for Andy Enfield's team, whose offense is not functioning well with USC making just 12 of 44 three-point attempts (27.3 percent) in those contests. Even in the "friendly confines" of Staples Center (just up the 110 Freeway from USC's on-campus Galen Center), a see a third straight loss coming for the Trojans. Make Oklahoma a 10* play. |
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12-08-17 | Raptors -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Raptors have been dominant at home so far, as after their 126-113 win over Phoenix on Tuesday, the Raptors checked in with a 9-1 mark at Air Canada Centre. In contrast, the team is just 6-6 on the road and tonight's game at Memphis vs. the Grizzlies will kick off a four-game road trip. The Grizzlies did snap their 11-game losing streak Monday against Minnesota but then fell right back in a "losing mode" dropping a 99-88 decision at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday to fall to 8-16 on the season. Toronto:.Toronto's backcourt of DeMar DeRozan (23.3-4.5-4.9) and Kyle Lowry (16.6-6.3-7.1) led the way in the win over the Suns, combining for 40 points and 18 of Toronto's 30 assists. "When you’re making shots, it's good, and the confidence we all have in each other to take shots and to give the opportunity to shoot the ball and we don’t care, it's always good," Lowry told reporters. Toronto is averaging 111.5 PPG (3rd-best in the NBA and topes in the East) an 48.7 percent shooting (2nd-best). The Raptors have upped that to 121 points during their four-game winning streak while making an average of 13 three-pointers per game and handing out 28.5 assists. "Everybody gets a chance to touch the ball, you don't necessarily got to work so hard," DeRozan told reporters. "Everybody gets a feel for the ball, everybody gets to make the next decision for your teammate, and with that, we still miss a lot of shots, but it's something we're still learning and something we're still trying to get better at every time we practice, every time we play." Memphis: Center Marc Gasol scored 17 points in Wednesday's loss in New York while his fellow starters combined for just 23, on 7-of-24 shooting. He's the team's leading scorer (18.9) and rebounder (8.8) plus played through a knee issue. "I don't know exactly what happened. It just locked up," he told reporters. "Couldn't really extend it. I never had any knee issues. So it was a new feeling for me." While Gasol's fellow starters 'laid an egg,' the bench provided some positives in the loss. In particular, forward Chandler Parsons, who had missed three of the previous four games with knee and ankle injuries, had 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting in 22 minutes. The pick: Memphis was 7-6 and had topped 100 points six times before deciding to shelve Conley (17.1 & 4.1 APG) on Nov. 14 in hopes of relieving the pain in his Achilles. The result has been the Grizzlies having gone 1-10 SU & 2-8-1 ATS since, being held to 98 or fewer points on all but two of the occasions. Toronto has faced only one team (Indiana, twice) with a winning record among its last six contests,and won't see another above-.500 club until meeting the Philadelphia 76ers on Dec. 21, which is eight games from now. The lesser competition has allowed the Raptors to focus on spreading the offensive wealth rather than relying on guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Seven players scored in double figures Wednesday and the club's 30 assists were one shy of their season best. Chalk up another 'victim' here. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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12-07-17 | Eastern Washington v. San Francisco -7 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Eastern Washington Eagles dropped their second straight game 84-65 this past Sunday to the Seattle Redhawks, falling to 3-5 on the season. They will travel to War Memorial Gymnasium in San Francisco on Thursday to take on the San Francisco Dons, who snapped their two-game losing streak and improved to 4-3 on the season after defeating the Central Arkansas Bears 78-76 this past Monday night. Eastern Washington: The Eagles allowed Seattle to shoot 50.9% from the floor, including 52.9% (9-17) from beyond the arc in Sunday's loss. Clearly, that kind of defense won't cut it for a team which is averaging only 70.1 PPG (273rd) on some very poor shooting (39.7% ranks 324th!). Eastern Washington's leading score is Bogdan Bliznyuk (14.1-4.5- 2.4), a 6-6 guard, plus a trio of guards add 6.9-to-9.0 PPG to the mix. The 6-7 Hunt (6.6 & 5.8) and the 7-0 Gruciunas (6.4 & 5.1) are the best big men. San Francisco: The Dons held off a late Central Arkansas run to pick up the two-point victory in their last game. San Francisco shot just 38.1% from the floor but did out-rebound the Bears by a 43-30 margin in the victory. San Francisco doesn't score any better than Eastern Washington, averaging 71.4 PPG (246th) and shoots poorly as well, connecting on 39.1 percent (336th). Jordan Ratinho had 17 points in the win and leads the Dons on the season with 12.7 PPG (also 4.3 RPG). 6-5 SF Chase Foster adds 11.3 PPG and a team-high 6.0 RPG. The pick: Eastern Washington has had a tough early schedule and it is taking a toll. The Eagles limp in just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and while San Francisco is "more in their class," the Dons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Make San Francisco a 10* play. |
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12-07-17 | Wizards v. Suns +7.5 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phoenix Suns opened the season 0-3 with two losses of 40 points or more. That prompted the firing of head coach Earl Watson, who was replaced by Jay Triano. The Suns have been more competitive since that horrific start (nowhere to go but up!), going 9-14 SU but also 12-10-1 ATS. The team just completed a 2-4 road trip but SG Devin Booker went down with a strained left adductor in Tuesday's 126-113 setback at Toronto. However, the Suns hope to have Booker available when they host Washington Wizards on Thursday. The 13-11 Wizards opened their five-game road trip with a 116-69 loss at Utah on Monday but quickly bounced back the next night in Portland, winning 106-92. Washington: SG Bradley Beal posted a career-high 51 points in Tuesday's win, as with Washington operating without All-Star PGJohn Wall (knee), he's being asked to take on more responsibility. Beal, as well as the entire team, laid an egg in Utah but all was right in Portland, especially with Beal who was 21-of-37 from the floor in his career-best effort. "I was really upset with the way we played, especially with myself individually," Beal told reporters in reference to the Utah debacle. "I just came in (to Portland) with the mindset that I was going to be aggressive, not thinking about anything else but trying to get a win and playing my game." Beal leads with 23.3 PPG with Wall (he has missed six games and remains sidelined because of left knee inflammation) second on the Wizards in scoring at 20.3 PPG (leads in assists with 9.2 per game). The Wizards are 3-3 with Tim Frazier starting in Wall's place. Phoenix: Booker (24.3-4.5-4.1) had to be helped off the court on Tuesday after scoring 19 points in 39 minutes and will undergo further testing to determine the severity of the injury. Booker had missed the first game of the road trip but was on fire over the rest of the trip, averaging 31.6 points on 50.5 percent shooting, including a 46-point outburst in a 115-101 win at Philadelphia on Monday. The Suns saw eight players score in double figures in the loss at Toronto and will ask even more of players like T.J. Warren (18.4 & 5.7) (9.2 & 3.5) and rookie Josh Jackson if Booker is unable to go. The pick: John Wall played (scored 21 points) and Bradley Beal scored 40, points back on Nov. 1 in Washington, yet the Wizards were still outscored by the Suns, 122-116 (as an 11-pont underdog). Warren exploded for a career-high 40 points on 16-of-22 shooting while adding 10 rebounds in that one, as Phoenix overcame a 22-point deficit to secure the victory. Center Greg Monroe collected 11 points and 10 rebounds on Tuesday to mark his third double-double in nine games with the team and enters doing a nice job since the trade (10.8 & 7.4). Revenge for Washington? I'm not buying it, as the Wizards are the only team in the Southeast Division with a winning record. The home dog barks loudly in this one. Make Phoenix a 10* play. |
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12-06-17 | Nuggets v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans Pelicans squandered a 20-point halftime lead on Monday at home against the defending champs, eventually falling 125-115. Frustration seemed to boil over in the final minutes as a slew of technical fouls were handed out and DeMarcus Cousins was ejected (shocking!). The 12-12 Pelicans will try to re-group tonight, when the welcome the 13-10 Denver Nuggets to the Smoothie King Center. Denver opened its six-game trip with a 122-105 loss at Western Conference-worst Dallas on Monday, falling to 3-8 on the road, compared to the team's 10-2 home mark. Both teams are missing key performers, as Anthony Davis (25.2 & 11.0) is sidelined with a groin injury and Nikola Jokic (15.5 & 10.6) with an ankle injury. Denver: The Mavs rank among the lowest-scoring teams in the league but shot 57 percent from the floor against Denver on Monday. "They get their 3s from dribble penetration," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters of the Mavericks. "When you can't guard their guards and they live in the paint for scores and they live in the paint for kick-out 3s, they got everything tonight. You're not going to beat anybody when you're giving up that kind of productivity in the paint and behind the arc." Is Malone serious? If the Mavs are "tough to guard" for his team, where are the Nuggets headed? The Nuggets fell behind by 25 points in the first half and could not recover despite 22 points from Murray and 21 from Harris. Murray is averaging 14.4 PPG, joining fellow guards Barton (15.8), Harris (14.4) and Mudiay (10.0) in double digits. With Jokic sidelined for at least a few games and PF Millsap (15.7 & 6.2) also out until late-February with a wrist injury, Denver will need help from forwards Chandler and Faried, as well as center Plumlee. Not sure that will happen, though. New Orleans: "I keep telling our guys, as bad as this loss is, what we keep proving is that we have the ability to play extended minutes with the world champs," Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry told reporters after the 125-115 loss. "We have to now find a way to not do it for 32 or 36 minutes, but for 48." New Orleans is operating without Davis, who had an MRI on his groin reveal no major damage and is now considered day-to-day with a left adductor strain. New Orleans is making up for the loss of production by asking more of its backcourt, and Jrue Holiday (34) and E'Twaun Moore (27) combined for 61 points on Monday. Holiday (16.3-4.4-5.5) is playing off the point with Rajon Rondo (6.6 & 7.3 APG) running the offense and has seen his scoring tick up to an average of 22.6 points in the last five games, with Rondo averaging nine assists in that span. Moore averages 12.6 PPG on the season, the only other player in double digits other than Cousins (25.3 & 12.2). The pick: Talk about a revenge motive! Denver shot 62.9 percent from the floor in a 146-114 home win over New Orleans back on Nov. 17! It was the team's best shooting percentage since 2012, and the Nuggets made 18 of 35 attempts from long range. They also recorded a season-high 37 assists and their starting five combined for 101 points. Davis played only 21 minutes in the first game against Denver but still led the Pelicans with 17 points. He is listed as day-to-day for Wednesday but he said Monday he was still experiencing sharp pain in his left groin area when making lateral cuts. No reason to expect Davis to play here but let's remember the Nuggets are now 3-8 SU and 3-9 ATS on the road (are allowing 10.9 PPG) and as head coach Malone noted, had no answers for the pathetic Mavs' offense. Lay it and make the Pelicans a 10* play. |
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12-06-17 | Loyola-Chicago v. Florida -15 | Top | 65-59 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Florida Gators opened 5-0, including a 111-105 win over Gonzaga. However, Florida then allowed Duke to come back from a 17-point deficit with 10 minutes left to beat the Gators 87-84 for the Motion Bracket championship at the Phil Knight Invitational tournament. Things went from bad-to-worse in Florida's next game, as the Gators were humbled 83-66 in a home loss to the unranked Seminoles on Monday. Mike White's team looks to bounce back tonight against the 8-1 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers, who are off to the school's best start since also winning eight of their first nine contests back in 1965-66. Loyola-Chicago: The Ramblers are 13-2 in their last 15 games versus non-Missouri Valley Conference opponents but of course in No. 5 Florida, it's a bit of a 'horse of a different color.' The team opened the season with seven straight victories before splitting its last two, an 87-53 loss at Boise State and then Saturday's 24-point win over Illinois-Chicago. Senior forward Aundre Jackson spearheaded the attack, hitting 10-of-11 shots for a game-high 23 points, his second-highest total of the season and the second time he has topped 20 points in the last four games. Freshman Lucas Williamson chipped in with a career-high 14 points. Loyola-Chicago averages 79.1 PPG (110th) but shoots 52.2% from the floor, which ranks 8th! Four players are averaging in double figures led by senior forward Jackson (13.8 & 4.2) plus guards Townes (13.4 & 5.2), Custer (13.4 & 4.3 APG) and Ingram (12.3 & 6.9). Florida: "They (Florida State) threw the first three or four punches and continued throwing most of them and connected on most of them until the final buzzer. Very disappointing effort," coach White told reporters afterward. "… I thought they played harder than us; I thought they were tougher than us for 40 minutes." Like Loyola, four players are averaging in double figures, led by junior guard Jalen Hudson (20.9 &4.4). Joining him are fellow guards Koulechov (16.7 & 6.6), Allen (13.7 & 3.4) and Chiozza (11.7-5.6-6.4). However, the Gators offense couldn't get anything going against Florida State, scoring 33.5 points fewer than its season average coming into the game (99.5). They wound up shooting a dismal 36.2 percent from the floor and hitting just 6-of-25 from three-point range (both their second-worst showings of the young season). The pick: No reason to think the Gators won't bounce back here, as Mike White's team is 3-1 in Gainesville with a 29.7 point average margin of victory in the three wins. As for Loyola, the Ramblers will be going for their first victory over a team ranked in the top-five since 1984 and in fact, they have not beaten ANY ranked team in nearly nine years. The Gators hope to responded to consecutive losses to Duke and Florida State in early December games last year, ripping off seven straight victories. Same story here, at least for one night (note Loyola's 83-57 loss at Boise State). Make Florida a 10* play. |
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12-05-17 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -180 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Both the NY Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning failed to make the playoffs last season. However, both teams' strong starts make it look as if that won't be an issue here in the 2017-18 season. The Islanders have earned at least one point in five of their last six games (4-1-1) after grinding out a 5-4 shootout victory at Florida on Monday. New York sits at 16-8-2 and the team's 34 points has them in second-place in the Metropolitan Division, one point behind first-place Columbus. Things have not gone a smoothly lately for the Lightning, although they snapped out of a 2-4-0 mini-slump Saturday in a 5-2 victory over San Jose. Tampa Bay is 18-6-2 and its 38 point not only has them in first in the Atlantic Division but the Lightning are tied with Winnipeg for the most points in the NHL. NY Islanders: Anders Lee extended his goal-scoring streak to four games in Monday's win with his fifth tally in that span and captain John Tavares netted his team-leading 17th, as New York won for the fifth time in its last six on the road. Josh Bailey notched an assist in Monday’s victory and leads the team with 31 points, including 13 in his last nine games, and Tavares is just one behind his linemate. Lee’s goal against Florida was his 100th in the NHL and defenseman Nick Leddy notched an assist to give him 12 points in his last 10 contests. Goalie Thomas Greiss (8-2-2, 3.61 GAA & .896 SP) sat out Monday’s win but will likely get the start after making 36 saves against Tampa Bay in mid-November to improve to 4-2-0 lifetime versus the Lightning. Tampa Bay: Nikita Kucherov moved onto the line with center Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat and tallied twice while Tyler Johnson was switched from third-line center to right wing with captain Steven Stamkos and Vladislav Namestnikov and scored a pair of goals Johnson’s two tallies snapped a 15-game goal-scoring drought during which he posted a minus-5 rating and registered 24 shots. “That’s how hockey goes,” Johnson told reporters. “Sometimes you get the chances and the bounces don’t go your way, and other times you kind of get those garbage goals that find a way to go in." The pick: Andrei Vasilevskiy (17-4-1, 2.22 GAA & .932 SP) is expected to be in goal for Tamp Bay and as you can see, his numbers are significantly better than Greiss'. However, the Lightning were 15-2-2 the last time the Islanders visited Amalie Arena (Nov. 18), with New York skating away with a 5-3 victory. The Islanders have overtaken the Lightning as the league's top scoring team (New York averages 3.73 GPG and Tampa Bay, 3.62) and I'm taking the 1 1/2-goals. Make the Islanders a 6* play. |
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12-05-17 | Vermont v. Marquette -3 | Top | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vermont Catamounts lost their season-opener at Kentucky but only 73-69 as 12-point underdogs. They then won six straight before falling this past Saturday 81-77 at Bucknell. Vermont will visit BMO Harris Bradley Center on Tuesday evening when they face the host the Marquette Golden Eagles. Marquette is 5-3, after seeing its three-game winnings streak snapped in 73-66 home loss to Georgia. Vermont: The Catamounts are led by 6-6 forward Lamb (14.9 & 6.5), who is joined by three other double digit scorers. They are guards Bell-Haynes (12.2 & 5.0 APG) and Duncan (11.9) plus the 6-8 Henson (11.5 & 5.8). Vermont did not look good for most of that Bucknell game and except for a run in the final minutes, the final score would have been a little more lopsided. Vermont will need a much better effort here. Marquette: Leading scorer Andrew Rowsey (22.6 & 4.2 APG) was held to 15 points in the loss to Georgia but his high-scoring backcourt partner Markus Howard (21.0) scored 29 points. Another guard, Hauser, averages 12.4 PPG and 6.0 RPG, but the scoring drops off from there, as no other player scores more than 6.4 PPG. The pick: The Golden Eagles won the only prior meeting between the teams but that was some time ago, 89-58 back on Dec. 22, 1995. Marquette has struggled to pick up resume-building wins against ranked teams and major conference opponents early in the season, falling to Purdue, Wichita State and Georgia, The Golden Eagles will be tested by Vermont, a mid-major with past success but this is a game the home team need badly and I'll back them. Make Marquette a 10* play. |
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12-04-17 | Steelers -4.5 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Steelers and Bengals have developed a big rivalry over the years but in fairness, it's been pretty much one-sided (Pittsburgh leads the series 61-35). The Steelers will visit Paul Brown Stadium for MNF on a six-game winning streak and looking to match New England's 10-2 record (with a win) for the AFC';s top mark. The Bengals enter on a modest two-game winning streak, after wins over the sad-sack Broncos (eight straight losses) and Browns (0-12 on the season). Cincinnati checks in at 5-6 and an upset would keep them alive in what's becoming a very crowded AFC wild card field. Pittsburgh: The latest version of the "Killer Bs" lead the Pittsburgh offense. QB Ben Roethlisberger is rounding into form after a shaky start to the year and has 2,948 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 INTs, "Big Ben" threw five iNTs in that Oct. 8 home loss to the Jags but in the team' six-game winning streak, has 14 TDs and just five total INTs. Le’Veon Bell held out in the preseason and started slowly but he's re-established himself as the NFL's most dominant RB with 981 rushing yards (5 TDs) plus 61 receptions for 396 yards. Only Atlanta's Julio Jones can make an argument against Antonio Brown being the NFL's best WR and I'm not buying Jones. Brown has 80 catches for 1,195 yards and eight TDs. The Pittsburgh defense (as always) is among the NFL's best units. The Steelers allow 289.4 YPG (3rd) and 17.5 PPG (4th). Cincinnati: The Bengals are off a 30-16 win in Week 12 over the Browns but enter averaging just 18.1 PPG (25th) on an NFL-low 274.3 YPG (note; Cincy has scored 30 points just twice in 2017, both times against the still win-less Browns!). Good news last week was rookie RB Joe Mixon finally showing some sizzle by rushing for a season-high 114 yards and a TD and catching three passes for 51 yards. However, it did come against Cleveland and the Bengals' rushing attack averages only 75.6 YPG (ranks dead-last at 32nd). QB Andy Dalton has nine TDs and zero INTs since the team's Week 7 loss to the Steelers but he will likely remember that he was sacked four times, picked off twice and the Bengals managed a meager 19 total yards in the second half in that 29-14 loss. Wideout A.J. Green has a team-high 809 receiving yards (52 catches / 6 TDs), which is more than double any other Bengals player (2nd-best has 373 yards receiving). As noted. the offense ranks 32nd overall and in rushing, so Dalton's job is not an easy one. However, the Cincy D has been solid, allowing 19.5 PPG (10th) on 330.5 YPG (14th). The pick: The Bengals have won two in a row to stay within striking distance of the final playoff berth in the AFC but they will be taking a major step up in class against this bitter rival. Cincinnati's last three wins have come over the Browns, Broncos and Colts! The Bengals were dominated by the Steelers 29-14 in Pittsburgh in Week 7 (see above) and will it change much here, even in Cincy? I can't see why it should. The Steelers have beaten the Bengals five straight and have not lost at Paul Brown Stadium since 2013. Make Pittsburgh a 10* play. |
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12-04-17 | Missouri State -1.5 v. North Dakota State | Top | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Missouri State Bears will travel to the Scheels Center in Fargo on a five-game winning streak and with an overall record of 7-2. Awaiting the Bears will be the North Dakota State Bison, who come off back-to-back losses leaving them at 43-4 to open the new season.The Bison are off a 19-win season, after four straights years of 20-plus wins, and return eight players. Missouri State has known success in the past (remember Steve Alford?) but last year's 17-win season came after winning just 11 and 13 games the previous two years. However, four starters returned this year and maybe this year's 7-2 start means the Bears are looking at getting back to 20 wins. Missouri State: Seven players are averaging 21-plus minutes per game with the 6-9 Johnson leading the team in scoring (13.7) and rebounding (10.3). Guard Miller (10.2 & 4.1) is the only other double digit scorer but SF Scurry just misses (9.7), despite averaging only about 15 minutes of playing time. Defense has been the key for Missouri State, which is holding opponents to an average of 62.4 PPG (33rd) on 36.8% shooting (14th). North Dakota State: The Bison were a little out of their league in losing 83-59 at Mississippi State this past Thursday. North Dakota State had no answers for the Bulldogs and Tyson Carter (35 points), as the Bison couldn’t fight back after falling behind by a 63-38 margin with 11:13 left in regulation. North Dakota State shot just 28.6% (10-35) from beyond the arc ant-d was out-rebounded by the Bulldogs by a 41-28 margin. Leading the way for the Bison was Paul Miller who had 19 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Miller tops a guard-oriented team in averaging 14.7 & 6.6, with three other guards following. They are Ward (11.6), Hunter (10.1) and Jacobson (9.1). The pick: Missouri State is not quite Miss. State (7-0) but the Bears have looked awfully good in their five-game winning streak. North Dakota State has struggled on the offensive end this season (67.3 PPG ranks 306th) and that's not good news against an excellent Missouri State defense Make the Bears a 10* play. |
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12-04-17 | Suns +10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 115-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The 76ers are finally starting to give some positive signs that "The Process" is beginning to come together. Philly welcomes the Phoenix Suns to ton sporting an overall 13-9 record. The 76ers are 5-1 in their last six games and 7-3 in their last 10, losing only to the Warriors, Cavaliers and Celtics. This just in...Those three teams are pretty good. As for the Suns, Phoenix finds itself 8-16 on the season. The Suns fell to 1-3 on their six-game road trip with a 116-111 loss at Boston on Saturday and have surrendered an average of 122 points in the three losses on the trip. Phoenix: The Suns rank 30th (last) in the NBA in points allowed at 115.9 per game and after allowing the Celtics to shoot 52.5 percent from the floor on Saturday, rank 26th in defensive FG percentage at 47.1%. The Suns nearly erased a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter at Boston but in the end, it was just another loss. "We competed well, we've just got to not make mistakes and compete for more possessions than we did tonight," interim coach Jay Triano told reporters after the game. "It's just understanding the game and what's available and not making mistakes down the stretch. Our discipline has to be better." Shooting guard Devin Booker poured in 39 points on 16-of-29 shooting in Boston and is averaging 31 points on 55 percent shooting over the last three games. He leads the team at PPG 23.6 PPG, with small forward T.J. Warren adding 18.4 & 5.8 RPG. Philadelphia: The 76ers are already "thinking playoffs." They rode 25 points and 10 rebounds from center Joel Embiid (23.1 & 11.3) to a 108-103 win over the Detroit Pistons on Saturday, pulling it out in the fourth quarter after squandering a lead in the third. "That's a good win for us," Embiid told reporters. "Getting those wins against what could be (a playoff team) is always good, learning the style of play." Rookie PG Ben Simmons scored just five points on Saturday (his first game scoring in single digits) but on the year is averaging 17.9-9.4-7.1. SG Redick (15.6), SF Covington (15.6) and PF Saric (11.5-6.4) are also in double digits. The pick: Yes, the 76ers are 7-4 SU (8-3 ATS) at home but laying double digits? To say the least, the 76ers don’t have much of a track record as a double-digit favorite these last four-plus seasons. How about they are 0-0 when laying nine points or more. Take the points and make the Suns (6-3-1 ATS last 10 as a road dog) a 10* play. |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: NBC Sunday Night Football gets Week 13's marquee NFL matchup as the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles, owners of a nine-game winning streak and the NFL's best record, visits CenturyLink Field to take on the the 7-4 Seattle Seahawks. This could be a battle of QBs. Philly's Carson Wentz leads the NFL's top-ranked scoring unit (31.9 PPG) per game). He tossed three TD passes in the Eagles' 31-3 Week 12 win over the Bears and has thrown 22 of his NFL-best 28 TD passes in the last seven games to put his name firmly in the mix for MVP honors. Wentz' counterpart is Seattle's Russell Wilson, who is third in the league in passing TDs (23), is tied for fourth in passing yards per game (275) and is responsible for nearly 86 percent of his team's scrimmage yards (talk about a "one-man gang!"). Philadelphia: Wentz has had a terrific sophomore season with 20 TDs and zero interceptions in the red zone. He's got a developing corps of receivers led by TE Ertz (55 catches / 7 TDs) plus WRs Jeffrey (43 catches / 7 TDs) and Agholor (33 catches / 6 TDs). The running game is strong, averaging 147.5 YPG (2nd). LeGarrette Blount led the team with 97 yards vs. the Bears and has 658 yards on the season (4.8 YPC). Philly traded for Miami' Ajayi and while he seems to be just a 'spot' player, let's note that in three games, he has 194 rushing yards while averaging 9.7 YPC! Let's not move on until mentioning the Philly D, which allows just 17.4 PPG (3rd) on 291.6 YPG (6th). Seattle: The Seahawks are currently one game behind the 8-3 Rams in the NFC West plus find themselves losing a tie-breaker to the Atlanta Falcons for the NFC's final wild card spot. The Seahawks stayed one game back of the Rams with last Sunday's 24-13 win at San Francisco. Russell Wilson was 20 of 34 for 228 yards with two TDs and one INT. He has 23 TDs and just eight INTs on the season plus is Seattle's leading rusher with 401 yards (6.2 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Baldwin leads with 58 catches but TE Graham is coming on strong with 49 receptions and a team-high eight TD catches (all in the last seven games). Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense has suffered key injuries but Seattle remains a solid defensive team, allowing 19.3 PPG (9th) on 311.7 YPG (8th) The pick: The Eagles have been terrific but they have played just two teams which currently own a winning record, Kansas City (a Week 2 loss) and Carolina (a Week 6 win). A check of the record book reveals that Russell is an impressive 37-7 SU (.841) at home as a starting QB in the regular season. Seattle as a home dog? I can't pass on that! Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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12-03-17 | Dayton +9.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dayton Flyers are coming off a 24-win season and lost four starters from last year's team. Dayton is hoping to find some consistency in the early part of its season but so far has alternated wins and losses through each of its first six games, falling 3-3 on the season after being defeated 73-60 at home by the Auburn Tigers on Wednesday. The Flyers will travel to Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville to take on the 6-0 Mississippi State Bulldogs Sunday night in college hoops action. Dayton: The Flyers sure know about winning (26, 27, 25 and 24 wins the last four years) but Dayton not only lost four senior starters off last year's team, it also saw head coach Archie Miller leave to take the Indiana job. Miller's loss is mitigated somewhat by Anthony Grant taking over. He was an assistant under Billy Donovan at Florida and then at OKC in the NBA) plus led VCU and Alabama to NCAA tourney wins as a head coach. The lone returning starter is guard Darrell Davis, who has averaged 19.7 PPG. The 6-7 Cunningham, who missed most of LY with an injury, looks healthy while averaging 14.3 & 10.3 plus the 6-8 Williams (8.8 & 5.2) adds size to the frontcourt. Five others are seeing "PT," averaging from 5.0-to-7.2 PPG. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs stayed perfect on the season by defeating the North Dakota State Bison 83-59 this past Thursday. Leading the way for the Bulldogs was Tyson Carter who had 35 points, Carter is a guard who leads the team in scoringat 15.0 PPG, with three fellow guards chippng in 12.0--to-12.3 PPG. That includes PG Quinndary Weatherspoon, whose line reads 12.2-5.5-4.8. Up front, the 6-10 Holman (11.5 & 7.3) and the 6-11 Ado (8.4 & 7.0) add size and are the best producers. Quinndary's brother Nick, is averaging 12.0 PPG. The Weatherspoon brothers are the only players to start every game for the Bulldogs this season and they are one of 29 sets of brothers nationally who are teammates. The pick: Dayton may be in for somewhat of a rebuilding year but don't sell this program or head coach Grant, short (see above for a reminder). Former UCLA head coach Ben Howland owns a veteran squad and as always, he preaches defense (62.3 PPG allowed ranks 26th). However, while Dayton saw its 16-game home win streak snapped in that 73-60 setback Auburn last Wednesday, the Flyers are 15-4 in their last 19 games versus the SEC, including victories at Alabama 77-72 and versus Vanderbilt 68-63 last season. Take the points and make Dayton a 10* play. |
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12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 115 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Two 6-5 teams will meet at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Sunday and the loser's playoff hopes will clearly be damaged. The Lions took a three-game winning streak into their Thanksgiving Day showdown with the Vikings but the 30-23 loss all but ended Detroit's division hopes. A second straight loss here could be a 'killer' for the Lions' wild card chances. As for the Ravens, they come in having won three of their last four and currently the team's 6-5 record is good enough for the AFC's final playoff spot (No. 6 seed). Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford signed a five-year, $135 million deal in the summer to become the highest-paid player in the NFL. He's NOT the league's best player or QB but he's completed 62.5 percent for 3,010 yards with 21 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 97.3). He's had multiple TD passes in the four straight games and in eight of 11 this season. Detroit's much-maligned rushing game takes plenty of hits (78.3 YPG ranks 30th) but Ameer Abdullah (505 YR / 3.4 YPC / 3 TDs) had been a positive factor of late with three TDs (two rushing, one receiving) during the team's three-game winning streak, before being shut down by the Vikings. Golden Tate leads with 63 catches but Jones averages 16.6 YPC on his 44 catches with eight TDs. The defense has been below average all season and enters allowing 24.0 PPG (22nd) on 359.4 YPG (26th). Baltimore: While Detroit has received excellent QB play, the Ravens' Flacco has struggled all season. He's thrown just nine TD passes with 11 INTs, giving him a QB rating of 74.2. Baltimore's average of 164.3 YPG passing ranks dead-last (32) in the NFL. The lack of explosiveness is reflected in the fact that veteran TE Ben Watson (42) and RB Javorius Allen (41) are 1-2 on the team in receptions. The running game is no better than average (116.8 YPG ranks 16th) and the Ravens' are fortunate to be averaging 21.5 PPG (18th). However, the team's D has forced a league-high 26 takeaways (18 INTs is also an NFL-high), giving Baltimore a turnover ratio of plus-11 (again, best in the NFL). The pick: The Baltimore D has three shutouts this season but truthfully, it's not what it was in the Ray Lewis era. Then again, Baltimore's stop unit is doing just that. It allows 305.7 YPG (7th) but along with a league-best 26 takeaways, allows just 17.0 PPG, which ranks second. For all of Stafford's nice numbers, he's 0-3 in the playoffs and has never been known as a 'finisher.' Neither have the Lions, as they are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games in December. Make Baltimore an 8* play. |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -9.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 100 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Most believe that the ACC championship game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Saturday evening is a "play-in" for CFP's 'Final 4.' There can be no doubt that 11-1 Clemson, the defending chaps and current No. 1 team in both polls plus the CFP's latest rankings, is a lock with a win. As for 10-1 Miami, the 'Canes have that 24-14 loss at Pitt hanging around their necks, as well as those "Turnover Chains!" Still, it's difficult to see a win in this game over Clemson, not ensuring the 'Canes a spot in the 'Final 4.' Miami: The Hurricanes were unbeaten and ranked No. 2 in the CFP rankings and both polls prior to their day after Thanksgiving loss to Pitt. Junior QB Malik Rosier has thrown for 2,807 yards with 25 TDs and nine INTs. More importantly, he has a number of "big-play moments" particularly in sparking late-game heroics in victories against Florida State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and North Carolina. However, Rosier will be without two of his top-three receivers. Standout TE Chris Herndon (40 catches / 4 TDs) suffered a season-ending injury against Pittsburgh and WR Ahmmon Richards (24 catches / 18.3 YPC) tore the meniscus in his left knee during practice Wednesday and will need surgery. RB Travis Homer has been productive, rushing for 861 yards (6,3 YPC) since taking over for the injured Mark Walton, who is out for the season (Miami ranks 65th in RY at 166.0 per game). Everyone knows about the Miami D thanks to its gaudy “turnover chain,” but it's no mirage. The Hurricanes thrive on takeaways, having forced 29 turnovers while committing only 12, and the D checks in allowing 18.3 PPG (15th). Clemson: The Tigers have just one blemish, a 27-24 Oct. loss at Syracuse, on Friday the 13th! QB Kelly Bryant left taht game with an injury but hasn't missed any more time The pick: Miami’s loss at Pitt didn’t change much, as the 'Canes would have needed to beat Clemson to reach the 'Final 4,' anyway. However, it is disturbing that Miami came out so flat vs. the Panthers. Meanwhile, Clemson appears just fine after its mid-season 'hiccup,' which coincided with an ankle injury to QB Bryant. The Tigers have won a school-record 10 straight games against top-25 opponents, not to mention coming in on a 9-1 ATS run in their last 10 neutral-site games. In contrast, the 'Canes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games. Want more? How about Dabo Swinney has recorded an 8-1 ATS mark in ACC title or postseason games? Make Clemson a 10* play. |
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12-02-17 | Pistons v. 76ers -5 | Top | 103-108 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia 76ers are 12-9 but have have been shut down this past week by two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, losing 113-91 at home to Cleveland on Monday and then 108-97 at Boston on Thursday. Philly now gets set to host the Pistons, who are no slouch themselves. Detroit has missed the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons but has every intent to change that dynamic here in the 2017-18 season, opening 14-7. That leaves them tied with Toronto, a half-game back of the Cavs, with all three teams chasing the 19-4 Celtics. Detroit: The Pistons are coming off a 109-91 loss at Washington on Friday, as Andre Drummond's 15th double-double (14 points & 17 rebounds) was not nearly enough. The Pistons led by six at halftime but were outscored 35-15 in the third quarter, as their three-game winning streak came to an end. "We got killed on the glass," head coach Stan Van Gundy told reporters. "They played so much harder. ... We did nothing. We did nothing. I really don't have an explanation." Four of five starters average in double figures, led by Harris (18.9 & 5.3). Guards Bradley (16.6) and Jackson (15.6 & 5.8 APG) join Harris, as does center Drimmond (14.3 & 15.2). Five others add exclellent deoth, contributing between 6.2 and 9.6 PPG. Phildelphia. The 76ers had won five of six before 'hitting a wall' against Cleveland and Boston. The Sixers rested center Joel Embiid on Thursday night in Boston, as it was their second game in as many nights and he has not yet been cleared to play in a back-to-back situations after undergoing surgery on his left knee in March. However, Embiid will play here and he's averaging 22.9 & 11.3. Ben Simmons (18.6-9.4-7.2) reminds some of Magic Johnson plus SG Redick (15.4), SF Covington (14.7 & 6.1) and PF Saric (11.2 & 6.4) are all playing well. T.J. McConnell (7.0 & 5.4 APG) missed the Boston game with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder but Bayless (9.7) is an able replacement at PG. The pick: Tough back-to-back situation here for Detroit, as the team plays its second contest in a four-game road trip. Philadelphia claimed the first meeting between the teams with a 97-86 win in Detroit (Oct. 23), as Ben Simmons recorded his first career triple-double with 21 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists and the 76ers limited the Pistons to 38.8 percent from the floor. Oh by the way, Embiid had 30 points in that first meeting in Detroit, as Drummond couldn't stop him. Nothing different expected here, Make Philly a HUGE 10* play. |
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12-02-17 | Troy v. Arkansas State -1 | Top | 32-25 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sun Belt Conference has three teams tied atop the standing at 6-1. Appalachian State is one of the three teams and will host ULL on Saturday, a team which 5-6 overall, including 4-3 in league play. However, the other two 6-1 teams meet at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Al. on Saturday, as Troy (9-2 / 6-1) visits Arkansas St. (7-3 / 6-1). Arkansas St. has won four in a row over Troy, including a 35-3 win at Troy last year as an eight-point underdog when Troy was ranked 25th in the AP poll.Troy: The Trojans shocked LSU earlier this year, winning 24-21 at Baton Rogue on Sep 30th, as a three-TD underdog. However, Troy lost its next game. That said, the Trojans enter this contest on a five-game winning streak (all SBC games). QB Brandon Silvers has 2,739 passing yards with a modest total of 11 TDs (six INTs). Troy's offense is averaging 29.8 PPG (54th) but its defense is the key. Troy ranks 10th in points allowed (16.9 per) on 318.1 YPG (18th).Arkansas State: QNB Justin Hansen is completing 63.9% for 3,198 yards with 32 TDs and 12 INTs, leading an offense which averages 39.9 PPG (9th). Hansen threw for 520 yards with four TDs in ASU's last game, a 67-50 win at UL-Monroe. Defensively, the Red Wolves are allowing 24.2 PPG (45th).
The pick: Troy has had an excellent season and have not allowed more than 24 points in any game this year (have given up 17 or fewer in four of its last five). The winner gets at least a share of the Sun Belt regular season title (would win outright if Appalachian State loses). Sure, Troy is playing with "quadruple-revenge" but after losing 35-3 at home LY to ASU, there is still a huge gap to make up. ASU has some pretty gaudy ATS numbers,as the Red Wolves are 14-5 ATS in its their last 19 games overall and 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 conference games. Want more? The Red Wolves are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Make Arkansas St a 9* play. |
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12-02-17 | Idaho v. Georgia State -4 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Ten of the Sun Belt's 12 teams will play on Saturday, including the Idaho Vandals (3-8 / 2-5) visiting the Georgia State Panthers (6-4 / 5-2). The Vandals are hoping to end a three-game slide and end their season on a high note. The Panthers were eliminated from the Sun Belt championship race following their 31-10 loss to Appalachian State in their last outing but could improve their bowl status with a win. Idaho: The Vandals will likely have to play again without senior QB Lineham (2,056 YP with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). Freshman Colton Richardson threw for 167 yards, a touchdown and an interception on 18 of 33 passing in Idaho's last game, a 17-10 loss at New Mexico State. While Aaron Duckworth led the Vandals ground attack with just 39 yards, he has 912 yards on the season (5.2 YPC), However, Idaho's running game averages only 122.2 YPG (111th). The team comes in scoring just 20.6 PPG (117th), while allowing 27.2 PPG (72nd). Georgia State: The Panthers are already bowl-eligible, so one could argue there's little motivation in this contest. Manning is a mediocre QB (2.599 YP / 13-7 ratio) and gets little help from a running game which averages 110.5 YPG (117th) and its top rusher has only 442 yards. Like Idaho, Georgia State does score much (20.7 PPG ranks 113th) and the defense allows 25.6 PPG (56th). The pick: Idaho is playing its final game in the FBS, with a return to the FCS Big SkyConference scheduled for next season. The Vandals are 0-5 SU on the road in 2017 and I see no reason to expect them to win here, with the team's injuries at QB. Georgia State's motivation is ending the season on a high note and winning at home for its seniors (Panthers are just 1-3 SU at home in 2017). Manning threw four INTs at Idaho in a 37-12 loss last season. Turnabout is fair play. Make Georgia State an 8* play. |
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12-02-17 | Cincinnati v. Xavier -2 | Top | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 21 Xavier (6-1) will host No. 11 Cincinnati (6-0) before a raucous, standing-room only crowd at Cintas Center at :high noon!' The time start is appropriate, as over the past 90 years these two Queen City schools have exchanged memorable performances, thrilling finishes, and even a few fists. Since Xavier's program has gained national prominence, the rivalry has drawn wider appeal as well. Cincinnati has steamrolled the competition to date, coming into Friday with an average margin of victory of 30.6 PPG, second-highest in all of Division I. However, the level of competition Cincinnati has encountered can be generously described as "not elite." Meanwhile, Xavier has already faced a pair of top-25 teams, losing a 102-86 decision to Arizona State before breaking out to an early 21-8 lead and winning 76-63 over Baylor. Xavier: The Musketeers are led by preseason All-Amercian Trevon Bluiett, who averages 19.7 & 6.1. PG Macura (14.6-5.1-3.3) is an excellent backcourt mate plus the 6-8 Gates (11.7 & 4.6) and the 6-9 Jones (9.1 & 6.9) are the team's two best big men. Five others chip in between 5.4 and 8.6 PPG. Bluiett will be looking to get back on track after being held to 21 total points against Arizona State and Baylor but was picked by Macura, who had 42 points in those two games. On the season, Macura is shooting a red-hot 59.3 percent from the floor. Xavier can score with Cincy (89.0 PPG ranks 21st) but can't defend nearly as well (69.0 PPG ranks 116th). The pick: This is a bitter rivalry In 1994, Xavier head coach Pete Gillen and Cincinnati head coach Bob Huggins refused to shake hands after an 82-76 Musketeers' victory in overtime, an incident they reportedly made amends for years later. In 1996, Xavier guard Lenny Brown's lane jumper at the buzzer lifted the Musketeers to a shocking 71-69 upset of No. 1-ranked Cincinnati in their gym. On December 10, 2011, in the closing moments of a 76-53 Xavier win at Cintas Center, an ugly bench-clearing brawl erupted, resulting in the game being played at a neutral site for two seasons. That vitriol has calmed in recent years, but there's certainly no love lost between the Bearcats and Musketeers. The schools are separated by less than three miles, and the teams and fan bases are united in their hatred of each other. This is Cincy's first real test of the young season and it is also the Bearcats' first true road game. Cincy won last year's game at home (86-78) but Xavier has largely dominated the series over the past two decades, winning three of the past four meetings, seven of 10, and 14 of the previous 21. Xavier is shooting 55.0 percent from the floor as a team, with only Virginia Tech (56.1) shooting better. The Musketeers are 4-0 SU & ATS at home, outscoring opponents 93.5-to-61.8 PPG. Make Xavier an 8* play. |
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12-01-17 | Stanford +4 v. USC | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The first of nine conference championship games will be the Pac-12 Championship Game from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara this Friday night as 9-3 Stanford (12th in the current CFP rankings) meets 10-2 USC, which is ranked 10th. The winners won't be making a 'Final 4' appearance this season and because the Rose Bowl is one of the CFP's two semifinal sites, the Pac-12 champion won't being in the Rose Bowl this season, either. However, the winner will play in a New Year's Six Bowl game and will have a chance to finish in the top-10 (likely higher than No. 10) with a bowl victory. Stanford: The Cardinal fell behind 20-17 after the third quarter against Notre Dame but would end the game by scoring 21 unanswered points to get the Stanford the 38-20 come-from-behind victory. The Cardinal were out-gained by the Fighting Irish by a 415-328 margin but won the turnover battle by a 3-0 margin. K.J Costello completed 14 of 22 passes for 176 yards and a season-high four TD passes, while RB Bryce Love had 125 yards rushing, giving him 1,848 on the season (8.6 YPC / 16 TDs). He leads a running game averaging 210.2 YPG (31st). The Stanford passing game is suspect, averaging only 183.7 YPG, ranking 97th. However, Stanford is averaging 32.3 PPG, to rank 36th. Stanford's defense is typically a strength and 2017 is no different. The Cardinal allow 20.7 PPG (25th) andd have forced 24 turnovers, giving them a plus-14 TO ratio. USC: The Trojans had already wrapped up the Pac-12 South before the season-finale vs. UCLA and despite allowing the Bruins to gain 501 yards, were able to secure their fourth straight victory with a 28-23 win. RB Ronald Jones II had 122 yards and two TDs and leads a rushing attack averaging 197.0 YPG (36th). Jones is not as famous as Love but has run for 1,346 yards (6.3 YPC & 16 TDs). QB Sam Darnold had visions of being the NFL's No. 1 overall pick prior to the start of the season but had all sorts of TO woes early on. He comes in completing 63.3% (down from 67.2% LY) with 24 TDs and 12 INTs, after throwing 31 TDs and just nine INTs in fewer games, last season. USC is averaging slightly more than Stanford (34.8 PPG ranks 36th) but defensively, the Trojans don't match up, allowing 26.2 PPG (60th) on 410.7 YPG (80th). The pick: These schools met way back on Sep. 9th in LA, with USC dominating in a 42-24 win. Darnold threw for 316 yards and four TDs while USC also ran for 307 yards (two RBs topped 100 yards, including Jones), out-rushing the Cardinal who ran for 170 (Love had 160!). However, can these factoids be ignored? Stanford only needs to make a short 15-minute drive to nearby Levi’s Stadium and has won seven of its last 10 games against USC. Stanford is 7-1 SU its last eight games (only blemish is a three-point loss to Washington St.) and comes in 10-3-1 as an underdog since 2011. The South Division is 0-6 in the Pac-12 championship game and USC, which was outplayed by UCLA last Saturday, has gone 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games! Make Stanford a 10* play. |
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12-01-17 | Duquesne +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 64-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up:: Duquesne and Pittsburgh (both Pittsburgh-area schools) meet annually in non-conference play and this year's matchup will be contested at PPG Paints Arena, the home of the two-time defending Penguins. Duquesne enters 2-2 and Pittsburgh 3-4. The Panthers lead the series 52-32 but Duquesne won 64-55 last season, as 15 1/2-point underdogs.Dusquesne: The Dukes are off a 10-22 season but made a great off-season hire by bringing in Keith Dambrot as their head coach. He coached LBJ in high school and recently, led Akron to three NCAA berths and five more in the NIT in his 13 seasons at Akron. Duquesne opened 2-0 but lost its second straight game 78-71 to Cornell on Monday. The Dukes led at the half 35-32 but a 15-3 Cornell run gave the Big Red a 65-53 lead with just 6:02 left in regulation and the Dukes never recovered. Duquesne shot just 34.9 from the floor, while allowing Cornell to shoot 56.4%. Shooting poorly has been a problem so far for e thDukes, as they are connecting on just 37.9 percent on the season (ranks 340th!). Four guards lead the way, all scoring in double digits. Castro (20.8 & 3.8) is tops, followed by Williams (13.5), who leads in rebounding at 9.8 plus Smith (12.8 & 4.2) and Lewis (12.0).
Pittsburgh: Kevin Stallings begins his second season at Pitt, coming off a 16-17 season. All five starters are gone from that team and maybe that's a good thing. The Panthers come in off two straight wins and can climb back to .500 after a 1-4 start with a win. Senior forward Ryan Luther scored 15 points and led Pitt with eight rebounds plus added a career-high five assists in Tuesday's 71-63 victory over High Point. Luther (13.4 & 9.1) has cracked double figures in scoring in six of Pitt's first seven games. Luther is Pitt's lone big man of note, as JC transfer Jared Wilson-Frame, a 6-5 wing player, paces the team in scoring at 14.0 PPG. Guards Carr (10.0), Stevenson (9.90)and Milligan (8.7) have been the other notable contributors, so far. |
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11-30-17 | Redskins +1.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -112 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dallas Cowboys welcome the Washington Redskins to AT&T Stadium for Thursday Night Football. This has traditionally been one of the league's great rivalries but this Week 13 meeting features two 5-6 teams with all but zero chance to win the NFC East plus neither team is really 'alive' in the wild card hunt, either. That said, the Redskins at least have a glimmer of hope, as none of their final five opponents currently own a winning record. That includes the Cowboys, who are now 0-3 SU & ATS since "Zeke" began serving his suspension, getting out-scored 92-to-22! Washington: The Redskins only put up 20 points in their Week 12 win over the Giants but QB Kirk Cousins did throw for 242 yards with two TDs (one INT). He's having another strong season (66.2% for 3,038 yards with 19 TDs and six INTs, giving him a QB rating of 101.3) and it seems as only Washington management is not high on this guy." Rookie RB Samaje Perine has given the running game a huge lift with 217 rushing yards in his last two contests and with Elliott sidelined, he's the best RB on the field. Perine, second-year Redskins receiver Josh Doctson (21 catches / 15.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and kicker Nick Rose (10 if 11 on FG attempt) are likely looking forward to returning to their home state to face a Cowboys defense that has given up more than its share of points, yards and big plays of late. That Washington defense should also be looking forward to taking advantage of a struggling Dallas offense (see above & below). Dallas: Many wondered who was more important to Dallas last year, "Zeke" or Dak. Right now, it's hard to argue against Elliott being the more important 'piece,' as Dallas has scored just one TD in three games without him (averaging 7.3 PPG), while Prescott has looked lost. His protection has been awful (14 sacks) and that has contributed to his woes but he's averaged just 166.7 YPG passing (high of 179) with five INTs and not a single TD pass (88 attempts) in the Cowboys' three-game slide. FYI...Zak threw just four INTs in his rookie season of 2016, in 459 pass attempts! The pick: The Redskins lost 33-19 to the Cowboys in Week 8 at FedEx Field but in that one, Elliott rushed for a season-high 150 yards and two TDs, fueling the Dallas offense in the win over Washington the way he did for much of the 2016 season. That was then and this is now. Not only has the Dallas offense 'hit a brick wall' (the Cowboys have failed to score at least 10 points in three straight games for the first time in franchise history) but its defense has allowed an average of 30.7 PPG in the team's 0-3 SU & ATS slide. QBs Ryan, Wentz and Rivers have thrown for 817 yards (272.3 per) with seven TDs and just one INT (in 89 pass attempts). Past history means little right now. Cousins is next up to rip the Dallas D and the Zeke-less Dallas offense can't keep up. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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11-30-17 | Cavs -7.5 v. Hawks | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly, reports of Cleveland's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Despite LBJ's first-ever ejection Tuesday vs. the Heat, the Cavs' victory was the team's ninth in a row. As for the Hawks, the last thing they need to see tonight at home is a well-motivated James or a red-hot Cleveland squad after suffering the worst loss of an already down season with a 112-78 home setback to the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. "Our defense was just - they were shooting 64, 68 percent at the half," Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters. "They'd hit enough 3's to make you worry about that and they'd just kick it into drive. I feel like our defense, not just in the paint but everywhere, was just not good enough for an NBA game." The Hawks have made 10 straight playoff appearances (only the Spurs own a longer active streak) but welcome the Cavs to Phillips Arena just 4-16 on the season (only the 3-16 Bulls own a worse record).. Cleveland: LBJ had 21 points (on 10-of-16 shooting) while adding 12 rebounds, six assists and five steals in 28 minutes against the Miami Heat on Tuesday but his ejection overshadowed a dominant performance from Kevin Love (18.7 & 10.0), who scored a season-high 38 points while going 10-of-16 from the floor and 14-of-17 from the free-throw line. The All-Star came up one rebound shy of his sixth double-double during the nine-game winning streak. The Cavs are now scoring 110.8 PPG (up to 3rd-best) but still have trouble on the opposite end of the court, allowing 108.5 PPG (25th). Atlanta: The Hawks haven't played since that Saturday's 'embarrassment' vs. Toronto but will the extra practice time help much vs. the Cavs? PG Dennis Schroder (19.7 & 6.8 APG) scored a team-high 14 points in the loss to Toronto and has reached double figures in scoring in seven straight games after bottoming out with seven points on 2-of-16 shooting in a loss at Washington on Nov. 11. Schroder's been pretty much a lone bright spot for the Hawks this season, although five others are contributing between 11.0 and 12,7 PPG (none stand out, though!). The Hawks rank near the bottom in both points scored (102.2 ranks 23rd) and points allowed (108.2 ranks 24th), so it's easy to see why they are struggling. The pick: It doesn't help Atlanta's chance here that one of the Cavaliers' most unexplainable losses during their disappointing 5-7 start to the current season came at home back on Nov. 5, when an injury-depleted Atlanta team that was riding an eight-game losing streak, won 117-115. Schroder matched a season high with 28 points and added nine assists in that Hawks' win but he'll need plenty of help here, if Atlanta is to "stay close." As noted above, Love is coming off a terrific outing and will now get a chance to wipe away the memory of his worst performance of the season, when he managed four points on 1-of-6 shooting in that home loss to the Hawks. My guess is that LBJ (28.2-8.3-8.3) will be focused off that ejection and I expect the Cavs to extend their winning streak to 10 in a row with plenty of room to spare. The Cavs are both 7-3 SU & ATS on the road this season, Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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11-30-17 | Texas Tech v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 79-89 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: A pair of quality teams square off tonight in the Under Armour Reunion at Madison Square Garden. Seton Halll lost last week 75-74 to Rhode Island at Barclay Center, before rebounding with a 72-59 win over Vandy the next night. The Pirates were No. 20 in the AP but dropped out in Monday's latest poll. Meanwhile, 6-0 Texas Tech made its first appearance in the AP's top-25, checking in at No. 22 Seton Hall: "The Hall" is off a 21-win season, appearing in the Big Dance for a second straight year (won 25 games, two years ago). Four starters are back this season. Up front, it's the 6-6 Rodriguez (17.8 & 4.0) and the 6-10 Delagdo (14.0 & 9.3) plus guards Powell (14.0 & 3.2) and Carrington (10.2 & 4.3 APG) man the perimeter. 6-8 senior Ismael Sanogo doesn't score many points (3.2) but that doesn't mean he isn't important. Sanogo's oot his first start of the season in last week's win over Vanderbilt and responded with season highs of eight rebounds and four blocked shots. His defensive prowess was critical in the Pirates avoiding a second straight defeat ahead of their meeting with the undefeated Red Raiders in New York City. "Ish sets the tone on defense," Desi Rodriguez told the media. "It takes the weight off our shoulders. That's why we consider Ish to be the best defender in the country." Texas Tech: Sanogo and the rest of the Pirates will have their hands full with a Texas Tech squad that has shot 50.4 percent as a team during its resurgence under coach Chris Beard. Tech starts starts five seniors and uses a 10-man rotation, with those players averaging between 5.3 and 15.0 PPG. .Keenan Evans (15.0 & 3.5 APG) leads the Red Raiders in scoring despite being held scoreless in the most recent win over Savannah State. Culver, a 6-5 freshman guard, is the only other player averaging in double digits (11.0). Great balance on offense has been 'swet' but defense has been ;king' for the team from Lubbock. Tech allows just 55,3 PPG (3rd) on 33.5% shooting (1st). The pick: The Red Raiders have won their six games by an average margin of 28 points, including a 36-point victory over a ranked Northwestern team. Texas Tech has held three of its first six opponents to 50 points or fewer and the 49 points against then-No. 20 Northwestern were the fewest that Texas Tech allowed to a ranked team since a 67- 47 victory over No. 11 Oklahoma on Jan. 19, 2004. Also note that Texas Tech has started their five seniors during its six-game winning streak, joining Mercer are the only two schools to start five seniors in a game this season. No knock on Tech but Seton Hall is playing in the familiar surroundings of MSG and since Willard became head coach in 2010-11, the Pirates have posted 13 wins against ranked teams, including seven in their last 11 opportunities. Make Seton Hall a 10* play. |
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11-29-17 | Auburn v. Dayton +3.5 | Top | 73-60 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Bruce Pearl hasn't had much success at Auburn (entered this season 44-54 in three years at the school) but all five starters are back from last year's 18-14 team. The Tigers come to Dayton looking to build off back-to-back wins that have the team sitting at 4-1 this season. Meanwhile, the Dayton Flyers, who are coming off a 24-win season, lost four starters from last year's team. Dayton is hoping to find some consistency in the early part of its season but so far has alternated wins and losses through each of its first 5 games (3-2). Auburn: The Tigers crushed Winthrop in its last outing, with Mustapha Heron leading the team with 31 points on 11 of 17 shooting, while adding 10 rebounds for the double-double. Bryce Brown had 21 points on 7 of 12 shooting with six 3-pointers. Malik Dunbar added 13 points, DeSean Murray added 12 points and 8 rebounds plus Chuma Okeke added 11 points to give Auburn five players in double figures. PG Jared Harper had seven points and seven assists. Brown is the team’s leading scorer this season with 18.8 PPG and Murray is the etam's leading rebounder a 8.8 per. Heron adds 16.4 & 5.2, Murray 12.2 PPG and PG Harper averages 10.6 & 5.2 APG. Auburn is sure putting points on the board, averaging 93.4 PPG to rank 9th in the nation. Dayton; The Flyers sure know about winning (26, 27, 25 and 24 wins the last four years) but Dayton not only lost four senior starters off last year's team, it also saw head coach Archie Miller leave to take the Indiana job. Miller's loss is mitigated somewhat by Anthony Grant taking over. He was an assistant under Billy Donovan at Florida and then at OKC in the NBA) plus led VCU and Alabama to NCAA tourney wins as a head coach. The lone returning starter is guard Darrell Davis, has come out averaging 20.0 PPG. The 6-7 Cunningham, who missed most of LY with an injury, looks healthy while averaging 16.0 & 10.2 plus the 6-8 Williams (8.8 & 5.2) adds size to a formidable frontcourt. Six others are seeing "PT," averaging from 3.6-to-7.4 PPG. Dayton scores nowhere near like Auburn but is a solid defensive team, allowing 69.8 PPG (137th). The pick: Dayton has "stepped up" to the challenge when playing SEC teams, going 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against the Power-5 conference. In fact, Dayton has won all four all-time meetings between the schools, most recently 73-63 in the 2012 Charleston Classic. Make Dayton a 10* play. |
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11-28-17 | Suns v. Bulls | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The "new look" Chicago Bulls are into a full-blown rebuilding process and after dropping five straight, as well as 10 of its last 11 games, stand at an NBA-worst 3-15. Chicago welcomes the 7-14 Phoenix Suns to the United Center on Tuesday, a team which has lost three in a row and 10 of their last 13 games, overall. This contest is a quick turnaround from a Nov. 19 game at the Talking Stick Arena, when Suns won 113-105.Phoenix: Star guard Devin Booker(22.5-4.2-4.2) suffered the injury during Friday's loss to the New Orleans Pelicans before sitting out Sunday's setback against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He hopes (big toe) hopes to return from a one-game absence but struggled with just 15 points on 5-of-15 shooting during that Nov. 19 home win over the Bulls .Booker's absence against the T-wolves led to increased playing time for rookie guard Mike James (11.4), who responded with a career-high 26 points in 30 minutes. "I think it's a little bit skewed because obviously Booker didn't play," James told reporters while downplaying his solid effort. "Most of the shots I took were more his shots." First-round pick Josh Jackson moved into the starting lineup with Booker out and he struggled to five points on 2-of-10 shooting to mark his eighth single-digit outing in 11 games. Jackson has so far been a disappointment, averaging 8.2 & 3.8. A bright spot (besides Booker) has been TJ Warren (18.6 & 5.6), who has scored in double digits in 12 straight games, reaching 20 points six times during that stretch. Chicago: The Bulls' Sunday loss emphasizes many of the problems the team has. Chicago held the Heat to seven first-period points but then allowed 38 in the second! "Nobody on our team wants to learn from losing," second-year forward Denzel Valentine (10.6 & 5.2) told reporters. "Everyone wants to learn by winning. But at the same time, all you can do is go out and compete." Jerian Grant (9.3 & 5.1 APG) lost his starting PG spot to Kris Dunn (10.6-4.7-3.9) but responded with outings of 21 points against the Golden State Warriors and a career-best 24 against the Heat. "I feel like when I'm out there with the second unit guys, I have that opportunity more," Grant told reporters about being able to look to score. "Coming off the bench I have to be aggressive and I feel like that helps our team. Being out there with that lineup, it's the punch I can give them." Dunn is averaging four points on 2-of-17 shooting in those same two games but coach Fred Hoiberg reiterated that he will remain the starter. Another example of a team with no sense of direction. The pick: Chicago currently owns the better first-round draft pick, as Lauri Markkanen (14.4 & 8.3) has looked 'light-years' better than Jackson (see above). In fact, Markkanen scored a career-best 26 points and collected 13 rebounds in the recent matchup with the Suns. Then again, the Bulls lost. Second verse, same as the first. Make the Suns a 10* play.
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11-28-17 | Louisville +7.5 v. Purdue | Top | 57-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 17 Louisville has opened 4-0 and will travel to West Lafayette for Tuesday's ACC/Big Ten Challenge to face the 5-2 Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. The Cardinals really haven't been tested yet, opening the season with wins over George Mason, Omaha, Southern Illinois and St. Francis (Pa.). However, in Friday's win over St. Francis, when junior Ray Spalding left in the second half with an ankle injury, a 22-point lead was whittled to eight in the 84-72 triumph. Purdue rolled to victories in its first four games by a combined 157 points while averaging 102 points but lost 78-75 (OT) to Tennessee 78-75 in the opening round of the Battle 4 Atlantis. The Boilermakers then got upset 77-73 by Western Kentucky in the next round. However, Purdue recovered nicely against Arizona, shooting 57 percent and draining 11-of-22 shots beyond the arc in the 89-64 victory. Louisville: The Cardinals have had NCAA-related problems this fall, including the FBI investigation into bribery and corruption in college basketball, a mess that cost veteran coach Rick Pitino his job, replaced by former Cardinal player David Padgett on an interim basis. The 6-10 Spalding (12.0 & 9.3) matched his career high with 19 points on 8-of-10 shooting and set a new personal best with 13 rebounds and five blocks in just 26 minutes against the Red Flash before getting hurt (he is questionable for Purdue). This will be Louisville's first road contest and interim coach David Padgett told reporters, “It's going to be an eye-opening experience for the young guys just because they've never done it before, “It’s going to be welcome to the jungle a little bit because there are not many places in college basketball that are tougher to play in than Purdue.” Senior guard Quentin Snider (8.3 & 4.0 APG) and 7-0 senior Anas Mahmoud (7.5 & 7.8) plus 6-7 junior Deng Adel (team-high 17.5 points plus 5.5 RPG ) will be counted on heavily, especially if Spaulding can't go. Purdue: The win over then No.2 Arizona was Purdue's second-largest margin of victory against a ranked foe in school history. "It's good that they were resilient and they bounced back and they won a game," Purdue coach Matt Painter said. "But I don't think it answers what happened in the other two games. The other two games, we didn't make shots. You have to be able to win versus good people when the ball doesn't go in." Also of note is that the Purdue beat an Arizona team which went 0-3 in the Bahamas, becoming the first team ranked No. 2 to fall out of the top-25 in one week's time since the the 1986-87 season (ironically, that team was Louisville!). The Boilermakers return four starters from their 2016 Big Ten championship team, making them as experienced as any team in the country. Sure, Caleb Swanigan (18.5 & 12.5) is a huge loss but 6-8 senior forward Vince Edwards (12.6 & 4.9 LY) is the only active player in the nation with at least 1,000 pints, 500 rebounds and 300 assists. Guards Edwards (18.0 & 4.4) and Mathias (16.1-4.7-4.7) lead in scoring from the perimeter with Edwards (14.0 & 9.0) and the 7-2 Haas (14.4 & 5.3) taking care of business inside. Then there is the 7-3 Matt Harms (6.3 & 4.1), who has blocked 21 shots in just 125 minutes this season. The pick: Purdue leads the all-time series 11-6 but Louisville won last year’s matchup 71-64 at home, ending Purdue's seven-game winning streak in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. Will Purdue start another winning streak here? I think not, as the Boilermakers have done quite a bit of traveling and this Louisville team is rested plus is playing with a chip on its shoulder from all the "off-the-court" issues. Make Louisville a 10* play. |
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11-27-17 | Lakers +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
The setup: The Los Angeles Clippers opened the season 0-4 but the team quickly unraveled. A nine-game losing streak from Nov. 4-20 left them at 5-11 but the team's 116-103 win in Atlanta (11/22) finally stopped the bleeding. A 97-95 win at Sacramento followed, so now the 7-11 Clippers are looking to make it three in a row when they take on their Staples Center co-tenants, the LA Lakers. Those Lakers missed out on their own chance at a three-game winning streak with a 113-102 loss at Sacramento on Wednesday and have been off, since. The Lakers enter this game with an 8-11 mark, which is not bad at all for a team which has won 27, 21, 17 and 26 games the last four seasons, respectively. Lakers: Having some extra time off has given the Lakers time to work PF Larry Nance Jr. back into shape in practice after he missed 11 games with a fractured hand. “It was good to have him back out there,” Lakers coach Luke Walton told reporters. “I think he’ll be good to go by Monday. ... If he’s good to go and cleared and ready, I don’t see any reason to not put him back in the starting lineup." Nance's return could push rookie PF Kyle Kuzma back into a reserve role despite his strong play this month. The rookie from Utah is averaging 18.1 points and 7.5 rebounds in 11 games as a starter and 15 points and 4.8 boards in eight games as a reserve. Fellow rookie Lonzo Ball (you may have head of him and his family?) has recorded at least a double-double in each of the last three games and went 4-of-8 from the floor in Wednesday's loss at Sacramento, marking the second time in his brief career that he shot at least 50 percent from the field in a game. Ball is averaging 9.0-7.4-7.1 but as alluded to, makes just 31.5% on FG attempts, including 21.5% on threes. Kuzma's 16.8 PPG leads seven double digit scorers. Clippers: Blake Griffin (23.4-7.7-5.0) is the team-leader and five others average in double digits, including center Jordan (10.1 & 13.9), who shoots 65.5% from the floor plus anchors the defense. Jordan's contributions are subtler than Griffin but are no less impactful to the win column. He capped off a 16-rebound effort on Saturday agiants the Kings by using his length to alter a shot in the final seconds by Sacramento's Buddy Hield. Backing up, those "other five averaging in double digits" is now down to four, after First Team All-NBA defender Patrick Beverley was lost to a season-ending knee surgery. The pick: The Clippers have won 15 of the last 16 in the series but "The Times They Are A-Changin!" For the first time quite a few years, "the Lake Show" may just be the equal of "Lob City!" Take the points and make the Lakers an 8* play. |
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11-27-17 | Texans +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: There weren't many bigger individually stories in NFL 2017 than the play of the Texans' DeShaun Watson. Just some of his highlights were his 4 TD passes and one rush TD in Week 4's 57–14 win over the Titans. He followed that performance on SNF vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. He had five TD passes in that 42-34 loss and in a Week 8 loss in Seattle (41-38), he posted his first career game with over 400 passing yards (also threw 4 TD passes). Watson threw 16 TDs in the month of October, setting the NFL record for most TD passes by a rookie in a calendar month. However, he suffered a torn ACL on a non-contact play during practice, which prematurely ended his rookie season on Nov. 2. The Texans are now 4-6 as they prepare to visit Baltimore to face the 5-5 Ravens with backup Tom Savage making his fifth start of the season. A win would give Baltimore a 6-5 record, tying them with the Bills and I'm pretty sure the Ravens would own the tie-breaker for the AFC's final wild card spot. A win would hardly be a surprise, as since head coach John Harbaugh took over the team in 2008, Baltimore has gone 11-1 in night games, the best mark in the NFL. The Ravens have also won nine consecutive prime-time matchups, also the longest streak in the NFL. |
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11-27-17 | Yale -2.5 v. Delaware | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yale Bulldogs won a school-record 23 games in the 2015-16 season. It led to the school's first NCAA appearance in 54 years and culminated in the first NCAA win in the school's 121-year history! All things considered, an 18-11 record last year, which ended with a loss in the Ivy League championship game (the league's first-ever conference tourney), wasn't half-bad! Yale (3-4) will travel to Newark, De. to take on the 4-2 Delaware Blue Hens Monday night at the Bob Carpenter Center. Delaware is off a 13-20 season (had won seven and 10 games the previous two seasons) but has four starters back. Yale: The Bulldogs lost Makai Mason (transferred to Baylor) but the 6-7 Oni (15.8-5.8-3.7) is a terrific all-around player. Balance abounds, with six others averaging between 8.0 and 10.4 PPG, topped by returning PG Copeland (10.4 & 3.4 APG). Delaware: Guard Ryan Daly (15.8 & 5.30 is th team's leading scorer with three other guards scoring in double digits. The frontcourt is patrolled by the 6-9 Carter (12.8 & 9.0) and the 6-8 Woods (7.8 & 4.7). The pick. the bottom line here is that Yale is the much better team and its record would be better if the Bulldogs hadn't opened the season with road games at Creighton and Wisconsin. Delaware's easy-season schedule has been quite easy with games against Wesley, North Carolina Wesleyan and Longwood (among three of the team's four wins) and even so, the team has still struggled to space the floor offensively, averaging only 73.5 PPG. Yale has better depth and has a history of winning on the road. Yale won last year's meeting 81-63 and while this game is at Delaware, I'll still make Yale a 10* play. |
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11-26-17 | Broncos v. Raiders -4 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 53 h 33 m | Show |
The setup: The KC Chiefs were initially on pace to "run away" with the AFC West title, opening 5-0. However, KC has brought teams like the Chargers and Raiders back into the division hunt by dropping four of its last five games. The Chargers, who opened 0-4, have won five of six after their Thanksgiving Day win in Dallas and are now 5-6. The 4-6 Oakland Raiders now have a chance to get to 5-6 themselves, when they host the 3-7 Denver Broncos in Week 12. Neither the Chargers nor the Raiders can control what KC does but the Chiefs sure look vulnerable these days. Denver: The Broncos hardly look like a team ready to break their six-game slide, after dropping a 20-17 home decision to the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday. After giving up on Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler was handed the starting job and last week he was 23 of 42 for 254 yards with on TD and one INT. To no one's real surprise, he's been no better than Siemian, completing 53.0% of his 117 attempts for 164.8 YPG passing with three TDs and four INTs (65.5 QB rating). The job is now being handed to Paxton Lynch, the team's first round draft pick from 2016 (26th overall). He won't get much help from a running game that averages only 112.9 YPG (15th). Denver's "O' is now averaging a pathetic 18.3 PPG (24th) and while its once-feared defense is allowing an impressive 283.2 YPG (3rd) and the Broncos are allowing 25.9 PPG, which ranks 29th! Oakland: The Raiders were a 'sexy' preseason pick to win the AFC but after 2-0 start, Oakland has won just two of eight games. Last Sunday's game in Mexico City against the Patriots was 'ugly,' as they fell 33-8. QB Derek Carr completed 28 of his 49 pass attempts for 237 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Marshawn Lynch led Oakland’s ground attack with 67 yards. Carr has struggled with back issues (64.0% / 14-8 ratio / 88.2 QB rating) and Lynch has been a huge bust (390 YR), as Oakland ranks 27th with 89.7 YPG on the ground. The defense has sure not be an asset, allowing 24.7 PPG (22nd) on 367.1 YPG (21st). The pick: Denver is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams in Oakland. However, those were much different Bronco teams and the Raiders, although not as good as advertised in 2017, are still a team with some 'life!' Denver's last win came back on Oct. 1, 16-10 at home against these Raiders. However, the Broncos are 0-4 SU and ATS on the road in 2017, getting outscored 31.8-to-14.5 PPG! Make Oakland an 8* play. |
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11-26-17 | Browns +8 v. Bengals | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Browns remain the NFL's lone win-less team at 0-10 (lost last Sunday at home to the Jags 19-7) and will be on the road to face AFC North rival the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The Bengals are 4-6, after snapping a three-game skid last week by edging the Broncos last Sunday 20-17 in Denver. The Bengals crushed the Browns 31-7 at Cleveland back in Week 4 (Cincy's first win after an 0-3 start) and despite the team's 4-6 mark, a wild card berth is not yet "out of the question." Cleveland. The Browns are now 1-25 under head coach Hue Jackson and while the team's problems go much deeper than its head coach, one still has to wonder just how much losing will it take for the team to make a head coaching change? The Browns held the Jags to 19 points last Sunday but gained only 184 yards themselves, as QB Kizer threw two INTs and coughed up two fumbles (team had five giveaways). Kizer is completing just 52.5% with five TDs, 14 INTs (QB rating of 54.0) and six lost fumbles. Kizer's 22 rushing yards was a team-high, as the Browns offer their passing game little 'cover,' averaging 101.2 YPG on the ground (23rd). The Browns enter as the NFL's lowest scoring team (15.0 PPG). Their defense allows 313.7 YPG (ranks 8th) but the team also allows 25.9 PPG, which ranks 27th. That's indicative of the team owning the worst TO margin (minus-17) of any NFL team. Cincinnati: The Bengals only scored 20 points and won by just three points at Denver but QB Andy Dalton, despite throwing for a modest 154 yards, had three TD passes. Dalton has re-invigorated the deep passing game with four TD passes of 18 yards or more over the past two games, after having just three through the first eight outings. A.J. Green has scored in consecutive weeks and ranks eighth in the NFL with 743 yards receiving and is tied for third with six TDs The Bengals' running game averages only 68.0 YPG (32nd!) and is a big reason Cincy ranks 32nd in total yards (265.6 per game), as well as 29th in scoring at 16.9 PPG. The defense is pretty solid, allowing 19.9 PPG (10th) on 323.0 YPG (12th). The pick; Cleveland is just the third team in NFL history to start consecutive seasons at 0-10 but just like last year, there figures to be one week in which the Browns "break through." Maybe I'm "spitting into the wind" or "pulling on Superman's cape" but I;m taking the points and making the Browns a 10* play. |
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11-26-17 | Oklahoma v. Oregon +2 | Top | 90-80 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-1 Oklahoma Sooners and the 5-1 Oregon Ducks square off on Sunday in a fifth-place game as part of the PK80 tournament from Portland, Oregon. The Sooners rode Buddy Hields' scoring to a Final Four appearance two seasons ago but the Sooners "fell off the map" in the 2016-17 season, going 11-20 (had won 29 games the season before). Meanwhile, Oregon made it ll the way to the Final Four last season, before finishing 33-6. However, four starters are gone from that team, so the team's 5-1 start has been a mild surprise. Oklahoma: Freshman Trae Young was still in high school when Buddy Hield propelled Oklahoma past Oregon and into the Final Four two years ago. Young exploded for 33 points against the Pilots during a win, becoming the first freshman in the Lon Kruger era (2011-present) to score 30 points. His performance marked the highest-scoring game by a Sooner freshman since Tommy Mason-Griffin tallied 38 points on Jan. 27, 2010. Young leads the way ins coring (24.5) and assists (9.0) plus 6-9 forward Khadeem Lattin (14.7 & 10.3) is the lone senior on the team. The Sooners are averaging 98.0 PPG (3rd-best) but are giving up too points, allowing 80.2 PPG (298th). Oregon: The Ducks needed OT to earn an 89-79 win over DePaul, upping the Ducks to 5-1 this season. Guard Payton Pritchard, the lone returning starter, led the team with 29 points on 9 of 16 shooting. Elijah Brown (12.0) added 19 points on 6 of 13 shooting. 6-7 Freshman Troy Brown had 11 points along with nine rebounds and leads the team at 7.0 RPG (is scoring 11.0 per). Like Oklahoma, Oregon can light up the scoreboard (88.5 PPG) but unlike Oklahoma, Oregon is allowing 66.3 PPG. The pick: I believe Oklahoma can put up points on most teams, but Oregon has enough offensive 'punch' to match the Sooners' point-for-point. Make Oregon a 10* play. |
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11-25-17 | Loyola Marymount v. Boise State -11 | Top | 48-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Loyola Marymount Lions will travel to Boise, Idaho to take on the Boise State Broncos in a non-conference college basketball matchup on Saturday night. The Lions opened the season with a loss at UT-Arlington but a 91-87 win over Incarnate Word the last time out gives them three straight victories and a 3-1 record to open the season. In contrast, the Broncos opened 4-0 Broncos but will be looking to bounce back from their first loss of the campaign, a 75-64 loss to Iowa State back on Nov. 19th in South Carolina (Puerto Rico Tip-Off). Loyola-Marymount: It's been awhile since Marymount has put a competitive team on the court and head coach Mike Dunlap opened his fourth season as the school's head coach with just a 37-55 record. Just two starters are back from last year's 15-15 team and Dunlap needs to replace seven of his top-eight scorers. The leading returning scorer from last year is the 6-6 Haney (9.4) and he's scoring 11.7 PPG. However, three newcomers are the key to this year's success (or lack thereof). JC transfer guards Batemon (19.0-5.0-3.8) and Allen (11.0) are already making an impact, as is 6-5 freshman Scott, who is averaging 16.2 PPG and a team-high 8.8 RPG. The Lions are averaging 84.8 PPG (54th) but will need to tighten a defense which allows 80.5 PPG on 47.5% shooting (both rank 29th!). Boise State: Head coach Leon Rice has been at Boise for seven years and has won 20-plus games in all but his second season. His 2013 and 2015 teams made NCAA appearances. Two starters are gone from last year's 20-win team but the 6-7 guard Chandler Hutchison entered the season as arguably the MWC's best player. However, he's gotten off to a modest start (12.0-8.2-3.6) plus missed the Iowa St game (questionable here). The Broncos have shown excellent balance with fellow guards Hobbs (14.0-3.2-3.4) and Jessup (12.0 & 7.0) off to very good starts plus 6-9 graduate transfer (from Rice), Christian Sengfelder (13.4 & 4.6) has been an excellent addition. The pick: If Hutchison can’t go again it's not great news but here at home, the Broncos can put plenty of points on the board against a Marymount defense allowing some "big numbers" against so-so competition so far. Lay the points and make Boise State an 8* play. |
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11-25-17 | Clemson v. South Carolina +14 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 34 m | Show |
Clemson: The Tigers lone loss came back on Oct. 13th at Syracuse, when QB Kelly Bryant had to leave with an injury. Clemson has won all four since then, after a 61-3 rout of The Citadel in its previous outing. Bryant completed 17 of 22 for 230 yards and three TDs. He's not exactly Deshaun Watson but he's pretty darn good. He's completing 66.2% for 2,154 yards with 10 TDs and five INTs. He's run for 613 yards and 10 TDs, joining RBs Etienne (679 YR / 7.7 YPC / 11 TDs) and Feaster (619 YR / 6.7 YPC / 5 TDs) to give Clemson a ground game which averages 218.6 YPG (24th). The offense averages 35.3 PPG (22nd) which works well when the team's D allows just 13.9 PPG (3rd) on 290.2 YPG (7th). South Carolina: The Gamecocks would love to upset Clemson plus a win would sure enhance the team's bowl status. QB Jake Bentley threw for 194 yards and a TD on 22 of 28 passing against Wofford and enters the game completing 63.1 percent for 2,429 yards with 15 TDs and nine INTs. The running game averages a modest 132.5 YPG (89th), although A.J. Turner (507 YR) and Ty’Son Williams (407 YR) average 5.6 and 5.2 YPC, respectively. Overall, the team's 353.3 YPG ranks just 104th. The defense allows 19.6 PPG (20th) on 366.0 YPG (42nd). The pick: The Tigers have not had much success when playing in the Gamecocks’ backyard as of late and South Carolina has covered seven straight as an underdog, going back to last year's bowl appearance). Taking away nothing away from Clemson's D (see above for a reminder) but the Gamecocks are one of just five FBS teams that have not allowed 30 or more points in a game this season, joining Alabama, Auburn, Troy and Wisconsin). South Carolina has held 10 of its 11 opponents below their season scoring average, including five who scored at least 10 points below their mark. Home dog 'barks' loudly in this one. Make South Carolina a 10* play. |
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11-25-17 | Northwestern -16.5 v. Illinois | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 91 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Northwestern Wildcats look to win to cap their 2017 regular season with a seventh straight win (Northwestern is currently 8-3 and ranked 22nd in the CFP rankings) when visit the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium in Champaign-Urbana. The team's will be playing for the Land of Lincoln Trophy. Lovie's Smith second season (Illinois is just 2-9), has gone no better than his first (the Illini were 3-9 in 2016). Illinois comes in on a nine-game losing streak and has not scored more than 17 points or gained more than 294 yards in its last five games. Northwestern: RB Justin Jackson has 1,010 yards rushing ( YPC) and eight TDs but the running game is averaging only 147.7 YPG (87th). You may not have heard too much about Jackson but he is just the second player in Big Ten history to rush for over 1,000 yards in four straight seasons! However, while QB Clayton Thorson owns a 14-11 ratio on 60.5%, his 2,669 passing yards have helped the Wildcats rank 46th in passing at 253.3 YPG. Defensively, Northwestern is allowing 21.0 PPG (30th) on 369.7 YPG (46th). Illinois: The Fighting Illini opened 2-0 (beat Ball St. and Western Kentucky at home) but have not won since. Jeff George, Jr. has taken most of the snaps this season but has completed just 51.9 percent of his passes for 1,273 yards, seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Crouch (4 of 14 for 16 yards!) played last week against Ohio St. and George is questionable for this one with a concussion. Making any QB's job harder, is a ground game averaging only 106.1 YPG (122nd). Illinois averages only 16.2 PPG (125th). The defense is allowing 30.5 PPG (88th) on 415.9 YPG (86th). The pick: A win will improve Northwestern's bowl status plus puts Pat Fitzgerald's team on track to win 10 games for the second time in three seasons. The Wildcats haven't just won six in row, they've covered all six as well, giving them an 8-1 ATS run their last nine. As for Illinois, here's the latest from head coach Lovie Smith. We're down to one more game left in our football season and we're playing our rival," Smith told reporters. "So hopefully we get a couple of guys back and play better than we did on Saturday." Anyone 'buying into' that? Not I. Let's make Northwestern an 8* play. |
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11-25-17 | Florida State -5 v. Florida | Top | 38-22 | Win | 100 | 87 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The latest 'Sunshine Showdown" takes place at "The Swamp," although this year's game holds very little of the pizazz usually associated with a meeting between the Seminoles and Gators. Both teams' early-season schedules were affected by Hurricane Irma and both school's records have gone from bad to worse. However, Florida State got to 4-6 with a 77-6 destruction of Delaware State last Saturday, while Florida snapped its a five-game losing streak with a 36-7 win over UAB, also 'improving' to 4-6. Florida State: QBs James Blackmon threw for 179 yards and two TDs (completed 11 of 15) while J.J. Cosentino added 51 yards and a TD, completing 6 of 7 attempts. RB Ryan Green led the team with 96 yards on the ground, while adding two TDs. Akers (779 YR / 5.3 YPC) and Patrick (465 YR / 5.5 YPC) are the team's top RBs, although FSU has averaged a modest 141.7 YPG on the ground (94th). It's been quite awhile since an FSU offense has averaged only 24.0 PPG (ranks 97th!). All things considered, the defense has done well, holding opponents to 346.4 YPG (30th) and 23.1 PPG (40th). Florida: QB Feleipe Franks threw for 152 yards and a pair of TDs on 15 of 30 passing in last week's win. However, the highly-touted freshman has been a big disappointment with the QB position being stuck in a constant state of flux all season long. The running game is only slightly better than FSU's (averages 163.0 YPG to rank 69th) and the Gators are scoring even less than the Seminoles, averaging 22.1 PPG (109th). Defensively, Florida has allowed a modest 362.6 YPG (37th) but ranks 69th in scoring D, allowing 26.2 PPG. The pick: This 62nd meeting of the "Sunshine Showdown' is anything but a showdown, as it marks the first time since 1959 and only the second time in series history, that both teams will enter the game with a losing record. Florida's Interim head coach Randy Shannon got first win since the school and former head coach Jim McElwain mutually parted ways on Oct. 29 last Saturday but two ina row may be too much to ask. FSU has won the last four meetings (six of the last seven, as well) plus actually has something to play for. The school has re-scheduled its game against UL-Monrore for next weekend, meaning if it wins here, a win next Saturday would extend the nation's longest active bowl streak to 41! Incredibly, Florida State is 0-9 ATS (or 0-72, at best!) against FBS squads in 2017. Really? Make FSU a 10* play! |
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11-25-17 | Georgia -11 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 87 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Rivalry Week and each has its own history. 10-1 Georgia (No. 7 in the current CFP rankings) will play in the SEC championship game next Saturday but first it's the school's annual showdown against Georgia Tech, which enters 5-5. Georgia's lone loss was at Auburn but the Bulldogs easily topped the SEC East. The Yellow Jackets welcome the hated-Bulldogs to Bobby Dodd Stadium on Saturday for their season-finale. Ga. Tech had an earlier game vs. USF canceled due to circumstances surrounding Hurricane and because of that, will play only 11 games. That means Ga. Tech will have this one last chance to earn a sixth win to become bowl-eligible. Georgia: The Bulldogs own an outstanding one-two RB tandem in Nick Chubb (1,045 YR / 6.3 YPC & 12 TDs) and Sony Michel (818 YR / 7.4 YPC & 12 TDs), with that duo leading the nation's 10th-best rushing attack (267.4 YPG). Freshman QB Jake Fromm remains a question mark (60.9% & 17-5 ratio), as Georgia ranks 113th with 164.0 YPG passing. The Georgia D allows 276.1 YPG (5th) and 14.4 PPG (4th). The Bulldogs' D 'laid an egg' against Auburn by allowing 40 points but that was only the second time Georgia has allowed more than 19 points in 2017. Ga. Tech: The Yellow Jackets have lost three of their last four coming in, having fallen to Clemson, Virginia and Duke. QB TaQuon Marshall is completing only 38.0 percent with nine TDs and four INTs, with Tech averaging only 88.9 YPG through the air (129th of 130 teams!). However, Marshall has run for 1,074 yards (4.7 YPC) with 17 TDs plus RB Benson has 1,009 yards (5.3 YPC) with six TDs. The Yellow Jackets rank 4th in the nation, averaging 319.3 YPG on the ground. The defense allows only 342.6 YPG (29th) but 25.4 PPG, which ranks 55th. The pick: Sure, the Bulldogs will play in the SEC championship game but a loss here would really make any 'Final 4' chances moot. Yes, Ga. Tech is playing for that all-important "sixth win" and in the nine years that Paul Johnson has been the head coach at Georgia Tech, only two games have been decided by more than eight points. Then again, anyone think that the Bulldogs won't remember blowing a double digit lead in last year’s 28-27 loss in Athens. This rivalry is described as “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate.” Need more? The visitor is on a 16-2-1 ATS run. Make Georgia an 8* play. |
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11-24-17 | Heat v. Wolves -4 | Top | 109-97 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The 11-7 Minnesota Timberwolves will welcome the 8-9 Miami Heat to the Target Center of Friday night, as all NBA teams were able to enjoy a Thanksgivings Day "off night." The Heat just knocked off the Celtics 104-98 Wednesday night, ending the NBA's longest winning streak at 16. However, Miami (at just 8-9), will have no time to rest on its laurels, as the Heat open a four-game road trip tonight in Minnesota. The Timberwolves won 124-118 win over the Orlando Magic on Wednesday, after back-to-back losses. However, it was hardly smooth sailing, as they squandered a 26-point lead in the fourth quarter. "We have to work at it," Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters of fourth-quarter woes. "You have to be tough-minded." Miami: Head coach Erik Spoelstra put his team through a pair of tough practices leading into the matchup with the Celtics, after getting blown out 120-95 at home by Indiana on Sunday. The strategy seemed to pay off. "I don't even care about the result," Spoelstra told reporters after Wednesday's 104-98 triumph. "Right now, it's all behavior and habits." PG Goran Dragic has led the team in scoring all season (18.8 & 4.6 APG) but entered the Boston game having totaled 14 points on 6-of-19 shooting in his two previous games, before breaking out for 27 points in the win over the Celtics. The 31-year-old did not attempt a free throw in the previous three games but got back to attacking the basket against Boston and went 9-of-10 from the line. SG Dion Waiters (15.9) wasn't far behind, as he scored 26 points on Wednesday, after going scoreless on 0-of-10 shooting in Sunday's loss. Center Whiteside has been bothered by a thumb issue and had a modest with eight points and 10 rebounds but continues to be a double-double machine, averaging 15.5 & 13.2 on the season. Minnesota: The T-wolves had held six of eight games opponents under 100 points (won all six of those games) but let up some on the defensive end over the last three contests, dropping two in a row before pulling out Wednesday's 124-118 win. "My concern is what we're doing defensively," Thibodeau told reporters. "If we're going to go anywhere, we have to correct that." The Timberwolves make up for some of those defensive issues on the other end of the floor vs. Orlando, as Jimmy Butler matched a season high on Wednesday with 26 points, Three others, Taj Gibson (24), Jeff Teague (22) and Andrew Wiggins (20) all reached the 20-point plateau as well. All five starters are averaging in double digits for the T-wolves, led by center Towns (20.4 & 11.5). He's followed by Wiggins (18.8 & 4.1) plus newcomers Butler (16.9-5.5-4.2), Teague (14.0 & 7.5 APG) and Gibson (10.4 & 7.8). However, Thibodeau has always emphasized strong defensive play and Minnesota is falling woefully short of that goal, allowing 108.2 PPG (25th) on 48.6 percent shooting (30th). The pick: The Heat are looking to turn the tables on a Minnesota team that beat them 125-122 in overtime on Oct. 30 at AmericanAirlines Arena but even with a Thanksgiving Day 'holiday' in between, I expect there to be a letdown off that win over Boston. The T-wolves were on a 7-2-1 ATS run before failing to cover three in a row but this seems like just the "wrong place at the wrong time" for Miami. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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11-24-17 | Virginia Tech -6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 71 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: It's "Rivalry Weekend' and at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville it will be the 8-3 Virginia Tech Hokies (4-3) taking on the 6-5 Virginia Cavaliers (3-4 ACC). The Hokies were riding high at 7-1 but lost at Miami and then at Ga. Tech, before bouncing back with a 20-14 win at home vs. Pitt. As for the Cavs, they've seen a promising season disappear, as after a 5-1 start, they have lost four of their last five games, falling to Boston College, Pitt, Louisville and Miami. These in-state rivals will meet for the 99th time (winner gets the Commonwealth Cup), with Va. Tech leading the series 56-37-5. Virginia Tech: Senior WR Cam Phillips (2,981 yards) is the school's all-time leading receiver by yards, surpassing Isaiah Ford (2,967 from 2014-16) after recording eight receptions for 117 yards and a TD last week. Junior RB Travon McMillian (team-high 434 yards, two TDs) carried only once last week before leaving with a leg injury, with head caoch Justin Fuente telling reporters that "he didn't want to push it.'' Tech's running game has been no better than average in 2017, averaging 164.0 YPG (67th). However, QB Josh Jackson has had an very good season, passing for 2,600 yards with 18 TDs and just seven INTs. Then again, Va. Tech, especially under DC Bud Foster, is typically known for its defense. The Hokies come in allowing 14.7 PPG (6th) on 315.6 YPG (17th). Virginia: QB Kurt Benkert put up 384 yards with four TDs and just one pick last Saturday against Miami's outstanding defense, which should give him plenty of confidence coming in to this game. Benkert has thrown for 2,876 yards (needs only 101 yards to set the school record for passing yards in a season) with 25 TDs and only eight INTs. He gets almost no help from a running game which limps in averaging 107.4 YPG (121st). The defense is not bad and in fact, senior linebacker Micah Kiser (115) and senior safety Quin Blanding (104) are the only teammates from a Power-5 conference team to each have 100 or more tackles. However, the Cavs are giving up 28,2 PPG (79th) on 359.9 YPG (33rd). Again, the Virginia defense is NOT in Va. Tech's class. The pick: Virginia is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2011 but that pales next to the fact that Virginia Tech is headed to its 25th consecutive bowl game. Sure, this is a rivalry game but how much of a rivalry is it really? Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall's first taste of the rivalry was a sour one a year ago as the Cavaliers got crushed in Blacksburg 52-10, which closed out a 2-10 season. This year, Virginia is looking for its first win in the series since 2003. That's 13 straight Va. Tech wins and 17 in the last 18 meetings! A rivalry? Really? Make Va. Tech a 10* play. |
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11-24-17 | Gardner-Webb v. Wright State -4 | Top | 47-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Wright State Raiders are the host team for the Wright State Tournament (who could have guessed?). Gardner-Webb will play Wright State in the nightcap of Friday's doubleheader and the Raiders will again play the second game on Saturday (against Jacksonville), win or lose tonight. Nutter Center is the site, which is naturally, the Raiders' home court. The Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs come in 2-3 and the Wright State Raiders check in at 1-3. Garner-Webb: The Runnin' Bulldogs Gardner-Webb started out the year with three straight losses to Miami, Florida and UCF, but then beat Warren Wilson and Brevard College in their last two. Gardner-Webb plays in the Big South (is off a 19-14 season) and head coach Tim Craft is currently in his fifth season (76-63, including this year's start). The transfer of guard LaQuincy Rideau (14.2-5.7-5.2) was no small deal but David Efanayi has played well early on, averaging 18.4 PPG. The graduation of All-Big South forward Tyrell Nelson (12.9 & 7.0) was also a blow but the 6-6 DJ Laster has been terrific so far, averaging 16.8 & 10.0. However, Craft's team doesn't have much depth. Wright State: 20-win seasons are not exactly news for Wright State fans and the Blue Raiders went 20-12 last season but didn't play in a postseason tourney, after losing in the Horizon quarterfinals. Three starters are gone from last year's team, with three freshman leading the way so far this season. 6-6 forward Winchester (13.0 & 5.3) is the leading scorer and the 6-9 Love (9.5 & 7.0) leads in rebounding. A third frosh, guard Mitchell, checks in with 10.7 & 6.7. Senior guard Benzinger (12.5) and junior guard Hughes (10.0) give the Raiders a solid core. PPG). The pick: Wright St. head coach Scott Nagy is in just his second season and his team should have few problems getting to .500 (3-3) on the season, against this level of competition the next two nights. First things first. Lay the points Friday and make Wright St. a 10* play. |
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11-24-17 | Miami-FL -13.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami's Sep. 9th home game with Arkansas St. was canceled due to Hurricane Irma, so the 'Canes enter this final contest of the regular season at 10-0, not 11-0. Miami is off a tougher-than-expected 44-28 home win over Virginia last Saturday but when the latest CFP rankings came out, Miami moved up to No. 2, as the committee cited its No. 1 SOS. Win, lose or draw, Miami and current No. 2 Clemson will meet Dec.2 in the ACC title game but the Hurricanes sure don't want/need a slip-up here. Friday, at 12 noon ET, the 'Canes will be at Heinz Field to take on the 4-7 Pittsburgh Panthers (2-5 ACC). The Panthers almost upset Va. Tech last Saturday (lost 20-14) when they up short on four attempts from the 1-yard line in the final seconds!
Miami: The Hurricanes almost blew it last Saturday, showing signs of a letdown against Virginia after the highs of back-to-back triumphs over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. However, the Hurricanes scored 30 unanswered points in the second half. The team's winning streak to 15 in a row. Manny Diaz's defense didn't show the same urgency last week as it had in the big victories over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame but the unit roared back from an uninspired first half. The Miami D slammed the door on Benkert and company with the "turnover chain" coming out three times for the game, giving Miami 19 takeaways in its last five contests, That D is allowing 17.7 PPG, 15th-best in the nation. QB Malik Rosier has passed for 2,319 yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs, with his most reliable target being Berrios (8 TDs). RB Homer leads the way with 849 YR (6.5 YPC) with 7 TDs for a ground game averaging 178.1 YPG on 5.3 YPC.Pittsburgh: RB Darrin Hall was completely shut down by Virginia Tech on Saturday,finishing with just four yards on 15 carries. However, he had topped 100 yards in his three previous games. He has 598 YR on the season (5.1 YPC & 9 TDs), leading a running game averaging 148.0 YPG (86th). Starting QB Ben DiNucci (4-for-8, 54 yards, one touchdown, one interception) was pulled last week (he had taken over for Browne) and replaced by freshman Kenny Pickett, who went 15-for-23 for 242 yards with one INT. Pittsburgh's offense (just 23.9 PPG to rank 98th) will surely have its hands full with the Miami D plus the Pitt D is allowing 27.7 PPG (73rd) on 415.1 YPG (85th). The pick: The now No. 2 Hurricanes head on the road for the first time since Oct. 28 in this game at Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes will also have the additional challenges of cold weather, a short week and some exhaustion due to playing their 10th straight weekend thanks to schedule changes prompted by Hurricane Irma. However, is Pitt (especially if teh freshman plays QB) really ready for Miami's opportunistic defense which also leads the nation in sacks per game (3.8). That hardly bodes well, as Pittsburgh QBs have been sacked 30 times this year. At No. 2, Miami is the highest-ranked team Pitt has hosted at Heinz Field in 16 years (that opponent was also Miami, which was ranked No. 1 when the teams met on Sept. 27, 2001). What's more, Pitt is just 4-12 ATS at home since 2015! Make Miami an 8* play. |
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11-23-17 | Giants v. Redskins -7 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 56 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Giants had seemingly hit "rock bottom" with their 31-21 Week 10 loss at San Francisco (49ers entered that game 0-9) but lo and behold, the Giants won last Sunday 12-9 over the Chiefs in OT, as a double-digit home dog! The 2-8 Giants and NFC East rival Washington will face off in the nightcap of Thanksgiving's three-game NFL card. The Redskins come into the game having blew a 15-point lead in the final six minutes of an eventual 34-31 overtime loss to New Orleans last Sunday. The defeat dropped them to 11th place in the NFC playoff standings, two games out of the final playoff spot. NY Giants: Can New York build off its upset of the Chiefs? Eli and the offense did little but the defense was a revelation. The Giants allowed an NFC-best 17.6 PPG in 2016 but entered last week's game having allowed 26.4 PPG to rank 28th in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs came in averaging 28.1 PPG but the Giants held them to just three FGs and QB Alex Smith, who came in with 18 TD passes and just one INT (in 293 pass attempts), was picked off three times! Eli Manning completed just 19 of 35 passes (54.3 percent) and failed to throw a TD pass for the first time since the season opener. Washington: The Redskins no longer have any margin for error plus will need to get some help to make the playoffs. Last Sunday's loss to the Saints was the second in a row but it would be hard to blame QB Kirk Cousins. He threw for 322 yards and three TDs against New Orleans. It was his second-straight 300-plus-yard effort through the air (the fourth in his last six games) and he has 17 TDs and just five INTs on the season witha 101.8 QB rating. RB Samaje Perine added 117 rushing yards and a TD on 23 carries. It was Washington's defense which has cost the Redskins the last two weeks, allowing 38 points to the Vikings and 34 to the Saints. The pick: Congrats to the Giants for the upset of the Chiefs but that New York offense looks inept. Sure, the defense was great last Sunday but it has struggled almost all season. Cousins is playing great (see above for a reminder) and let's not forget that Washington's back-to-back loses have come against the Vikings and Saints, two 8-2 teams. This just in...the 2-8 Giants are NOT in that class. Beginning with the Giants, none of the teams left on Washington's remaining schedule currently own a winning record. Just maybe, the postseason is not a pipe dream? Lay it here and make Washington a 10* play. |
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11-23-17 | Butler +2 v. Texas | Top | 48-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Butler Bulldogs won 25 games last year and made it to the Sweet 16. However, head coach Chris Holtmann (Stevens' replacement) jumped at the Ohio St. job when Matta was suddenly let go, with Milwaukee's LaVall Jordan stepping in. Butler has opened 3-1 with its lone loss coming 79-65 at Maryland, as the team travels to Portland for the Phil Knight Invitational and a meeting with 3-0 Texas.Shaka Smart is off an 'ugly' 11-22 season last year but his team has racked up thee victories by double figures with the defense yet to allow more then 60 points to open the current season. Butler: Jordan will miss the versatile Chrabascz (11.4-4.6-3.7) from last year's team but a solid nucleus returns, led by the 6-7 Martin (15.0 & 8.3). Baldwin (13.8) is a sophomore guard building on his solid freshman season and the 6-8 Wideman (12.3 & 4.0) is an All-Big East talent. McDermott (12.0), GW transfer Jorgensen (9.8) and Thompson (7.0 & 4.3) round out the main contributors. Texas: The Longhorns lost their top-two scorers from last season in Mack (14.8 & 4.8) and Allen (13.4 & 8.4) but guards Jones (13.0) and Roach (12.7) plus big men Bamba (14.0 & 9.0) and Ostekowski (11.3 & 9.) have looked very good early. Bamba is a 6-11 freshman center who few thought Smart could lure to Austin, while Ostekowski is a 6-9 junior.Mo Bamba missed the team's second win with a concussion but was back the last time out, chipping in 13 & 10. Texas has been winning with defense as it's held its opponents to 60 points or fewer in every game (58.7 PPG to rank 21st) on 32.8 percent shooting (5th-best). The pick: The Longhorns needed a strong start after last year's disaster but look closer and you'll see wins over Northwestern State, New Hampshire and Lipscomb. That trio has nothing in common with a Butler team (remember, 25 wins and a Sweet 16 trip LY!) or program which has gone 39-11-2 ATS in its last 52 neutral-site games. Make Butler an 8* play. |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions +3 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings have won six in a row and now own a two-game lead in the NFC North as they head to Ford Field early Thursday afternoon to take on the Detroit Lions. The Lions have won three straight, beating the Packers, Browns and Bears to reach 6-4. That means the Lions need to win here or fall three games back of the Vikings, with just five games remaining. Detroit is tied with the Falcons and Seahawks (Atlanta would win the tie-breaker as of now, giving them the NFC's No. 6 seed) plus the Packers and Cowboys are lurking at 5-5.. Minnesota: The Vikings will sure remember the last time these teams met, as the Lions won 14-7 at Minnesota, with the Vikings losing three fumbles. However, the Vikes haven't lost since. Case Keenum has 'rescued' the offense, entering this contest completing 65.7% for 2,194 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs (he's 6-2 as a starter in 2017). The loss of rookie RB Dalvin Cook was supposed to all but 'kill' the running game but Murray (412 yards) and McKinnon (367 yards) have filled in well, with Minnesota entering this game averaging 123.3 YPG on the ground (8th). WR Adam Thielen has an NFC-best 916 receiving yards while his 16 catches of at least 20 yards has the 27-year-old tied with Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown for the league lead. However, the Vikings' defense has led the way in 2017, allowing 17.2 PPG (4th) on 290.5 YPG (5th). Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford signed a five-year, $135 million deal in the summer to become the highest-paid player in the NFL. He's NOT the league's best player or QB but he's completed 63.1 percent for 2,760 yards with 19 TDs and five INTs (QB rating of 98.4). He's had multiple TD passes in the three straight wins and in seven of 10 this season. Detroit's much-maligned rushing game takes plenty of hits (80.8 YPG ranks 28th) but Ameer Abdullah (491 YR / 3.4 YPC / 3 TDs) has been a positive factor of late with three TDs (two rushing, one receiving) during the team's three-game winning streak. The Lions have averaged 31.7 points during their three-game winning streak and now rank 5th in the league, at 27.1 PPG. The pick: Thi game is YUGE for the Lions (see above for implications) and as of late (like the team's 14-7 win at Minny in Week 4), the Lions have ground out numerous low-scoring wins over the Vikings these last four seasons. Detroit has won five of the last seven meetings, including three straight despite scoring a combined four TDs. The Lions have won four straight Thanksgiving Day games at Ford Field, helping them to make the playoffs in two of those seasons (had lost nine straight games on Thanksgiving prior to the streak). Stafford's been brilliant the past five Thanksgiving games, with 13 TD passes against just two interceptions. Make the Lions an 8* play. |
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11-22-17 | Clippers -3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Clippers were riding high at 4-0 SU & ATS, after Blake Griffin hit a game-winning three-pointer to edge Portland back on Oct. 26 . However, the "new look" Clippers have been in a free-fall ever since, going 1-11 SU. That includes bringing a nine-game losing streak (1-8 ATS) to Atlanta and this game with the Hawks, after Monday’s 107-85 defeat in New York. the Knicks. Not sure many are aware that the Hawks own the second-longest active postseason streak (second only to the Spurs) but there have not been many positives this season for Atlanta Hawks, who enter this game just 3-11 SU and 7-9 ATS. The 2018 postseason seems like nothing but a pipe dream at the moment. LA Clippers: “Bottom line, we just can’t sustain anything,” Los Angeles head coach Doc Rivers told the media after Monday's loss. “Right now, we get it going a little bit and one thing happens and it just implodes.” The Clippers’ guard play was not strong Monday, as Austin Rivers, Lou Williams and Jawun Evans combined to shoot 5-for-25 from the floor. Griffin is averaging 22.7-7.8-4.7 and is joined by five other double digit scorers, including center Jordan at 10.1 & 13.7 (one of 12 NBA players currently averaging a double-double). However, LA is just about "average or below" in scoring 104.9 PPG (16th) and allowing 106.6 PPG (19th).. Atlanta: Similar to LA, the Hawks have six players averaging in double digits, led by new starting PG Dennis Schroder (19.7 & 7.1 APG). However, the Hawks rank even lower than the Clippers in both scoring (102.8 PPG which is 22nd) and points allowed (107.8 ranks 24th). The Hawks have been competitive against some of the better teams in the NBA, including an 11-point loss at San Antonio on Monday. Rookie John Collins (11.6 & 7.4) grabbed attention in that one by scoring 21 points and collecting nine rebounds off the bench. The pick: Atlanta’s last four games have featured a one-point loss, a franchise-record 46-point victory plus close calls against Boston and San Antonio.The Hawks are surely playing better than the Clipps but if LA can't win here, one wonders just how far this team will fall. I'm in on the Clippers and will make them a 10* play. |
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11-22-17 | Celtics -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: It seems as if no deficit is too large for the Celtics to overcome. Boston has rallied from double-digit deficits for victories in each of its last three contests to keep the team's now 16-game winning streak alive (4th-longest in franchise history). The Celtics trailed by 13 with less than eight minutes to go Monday before storming back for a 110-102 overtime victory at Dallas, as Kyrie Irving scored a season-high 47 points. 16-2 Boston can tie the third-longest streak (1959-60) in franchise history with a win here at AmericanAirlines Arena and hope for a similar effort to the one on Oct. 28 when the Celtics took care of the Heat 96-90 in Miami. The 7-9 Heat have dropped three of their last four after getting crushed 120-95 at home against Indiana on Sunday, a game in which they allowed 60 percent shooting from the floor. Boston: Irving's been everything and more for Boston, averaging 22.5 & 5.3 APG plus taking over as team-leader. “He’s got every move imaginable, but on top of that he’s one of the best shooters in the league,” head coach Brad Stevens told the Boston Herald. “Everybody gets caught up in the moves and dribbling and everything he can do the ball, but his touch is beautiful with both hands.” Nearing the quarter-pole of the regular season, Irving is making his case as league MVP. Stevens knows a little something about "moves," as he's quickly risen to the top-tier of the NBA coaching ranks. Jaylen Brown is averaging 23.7 points over the last three games to push his season mark to 16.2 PPG, while making 10-of-20 from three-point range. He's showing just why he was drafted 3rd overall in 2016 by Boston. Miami: The Heat's leading scorer is also the team's PG, Goran Dragic. He's averaging 18.3 & 4.7 APG on the season but just seven points over his past two games, while missing 13 of 19 shots from the floor. Meanwhile backcourt partner Dion Waiters (2nd-best scorer at 15.1 PPG) is coming off an 0-for-10 shooting performance in Sunday's game. To state the obvious, that's bad news when getting set to host Boston. Center Hassan Whiteside continues to put up big numbers (16.2 &13.5) and forward James Johnson is the fourth player averaging in double figures (12.3). The pick: The Celtics have trailed by double digits in five of their 16 wins, making a habit of playing well "in the clutch.".In stark contrast, Miami has faded down the stretch. The Heat are the worst second-half team in the league so far this season. Miami's first-half FG percentage (51.1) is sixth-best in the league but the Heat's second-half shooting percentage (39.6) is last. Boston is 9-1 SU & ATS on the road, while the Heat are 2-6 SU and 0-6-2 ATS at home. Not a tough call. Make Boston an 8* play. |
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11-22-17 | Troy State +4 v. East Tenn State | Top | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: It's an interesting matchup tonight in Johnson City, Tn, as Troy takes on East Tennessee St. Troy won the Sun Belt tourney last season and made the NCAAs, while East Tennessee St. won the Southern Conference and went 'dancing' as well. Troy enters 2-3 and East Tennessee St. at 2-2. Troy: Head coach Phil Cunningham made quite a splash in his fourth season, as after winning just 11, 10 and 9 games, led the team to 22 wins and an NCAA berth in 2016-17. He returns four starters, including two of the Sun Belt's best players, the 6-6 Jordan Varnado (18.6 & 7.8) plus Wes Person Jr, a guard averaging 17.0 PPG. The team did lose some quality contributors but the one-two punch of Varnado and Person is a good one. East Tennessee State: Steve Forbes led the Buccaneers to 'the promised land' in just his second season as the team's head coach but unlike Cunningham's Troy team, he lost four starers from last year's team. Four guards average between 7.0 and 12,5 PPG, led by Payne (12.5) and Bradford (11.8-5.8-3.8), who is the lone returning starter. The 7-0 Jurkin (10.0 & 6.7) gives East Tenn. St. the game's best big man. The pick: East Tennessee St. is the home team but it's my belief that Troy is the better team and proves it here. Make Troy a 10* play. |
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11-21-17 | Alabama A&M +37.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 57-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The latest AP poll came out Tuesday and the 4-0 Minnesota Golden Gophers were ranked No. 14. The Golden Gophers passed a big road test last week at Providence and followed that up by knocking off two opponents at home. Tuesday night, the Gophers welcome Alabama A&M (0-3) to Williams Arena. The Bulldogs are a member of the SWAC and after going 2-27 last season, are expecting no more than a 'pay day' out of this contest. Alabama A&M: Head coach Donnie Martin is in his first season at Huntsville and surely has nowhere to go but up, taking over a team which had just two wins last season (both in league play). The Bulldogs have averaged just 62.7 PPG (323rd) on 39.2 percent shooting (312th) in opening 0-3. Junior guard Arthur Johnson leads the team in scoring (14.7) and rebounding (6.3), while making 6-of-11 from three-point range. Sophomore guard De’Ederick Petty has chipped in 13.0 PPG and while.freshman guard Amari Goulbourne did not score in his first two collegiate games, he broke out with 17 points and four assists in 36 minutes against Alabama (that's the promise Ala A&M needs). Defensively, the team allows 84.0 PPG (305th) on 50.0 percent shooting (323rd). Minnesota: When the Big Ten announced its 10-player preseason all-conference team, senior PG Nate Mason and sophomore swingman Amir Coffey represented Minnesota. However, heading into Tuesday's game against Alabama A&M, 6-6 forward Jordan Murphy might have a line on the conference's player of the year award based on his early performances. Murphy averaged 11.3 points and 8.3 rebounds last season but is averaging 24.8 & 12.8 this season. That's not to say Mason and Coffey are not contributing. Mason is averaging 14.0-6.2-4.5 and Coffey 14.0 & 4.2. Each of Minny's other two starters are also in double digits, the 6-10 Lynch (12.8 & 8.8 plus 22 blocks!) and guard McBrayer (11.0). The pick: Pitino's 'ride' at Minnesota has been of the roller coaster variety. A 25-win season in his first year (won NIT!), 18 wins in his second but then just EIGHT in his third. Minnesota bounced back with 25 wins last year (lost in the 1st round of the Big Dance) and now owns a 4-0 start and a top-25 ranking early in this season. It's safe to say that regardless how the Gophers' season plays out, the 2017-18 season will have gone much better for Richard Pitino, than for his dad, Rick. Minnesota is averaging 94.2 PPG and allowing 74.0. Sure, Alabama A&M is here for the 'paycheck' and has just one starter listed over 6-7 but just look at the size of this pointspread. Make Alabama A&M an 8* play. |
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11-20-17 | Blazers -1.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Memphis Grizzlies earned a 98-97 win in Portland on Nov. 7 to reach 7-4 but have surrendered an average of 110.5 PPG in losing four in a row (0-4 ATS) to fall under .500 at 7-8. The Grizz will welcome the Portland Trail Blazers to Memphis Monday night in hopes of snapping their current slide. However, the Blazers are moving in the opposite direction of the Grizzlies, having won three of four to move to 9-7 on the season. Then again, the Blazers, who will play their next five games on the road, have lost three in a row away from home with their last road victory coming way back on Oct. 20 when they bested Indiana 114-96 in just their second game of the season. Portland: The Blazers scored a season low in an 86-82 loss at Sacramento on Friday but returned the favor with a 102-90 triumph at home over the Kings the next night. “I liked our demeanor,” Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts told reporters after the win. “After being disappointed last night and struggling with the offense, to come back and the way we set the tone — I think our first five baskets were assisted — I thought that set a good tone for the rest of the night." The offense has been led all season by guards Lillard (25.6-5.4-6.4) and McCollum (22.5) plus 7-0 center Nurkic (14.6 & 7.2). That said, Portland's real improvement so far this season has come defensively, with the Blazers allowing just 97.5 PPG (2nd) on 43.1 percent shooting (3rd). Memphis: The Grizzlies were solid defensively at home against Houston on Saturday, holding one of the league's top scoring offenses to 44.9 percent shooting (Grizzlies allow 101.3 PPG to rank 7th) but could not figure out a way to get anything done at the other end in a 105-83 loss. "We couldn’t get organized in the basic sets that we run, for whatever reason," Grizzlies coach David Fizdale told reporters. "I know a couple of the guys that are just getting back are running around with their heads cut off a little bit. We just couldn’t get organized." Memphis is searching for a leader on the court with PG Mike Conley (Achilles) out until at least next month. Center Mark Gasol leads in scoring (19.7) and rebounding )9.3) but without Conley's 17.1 PPG, only swingman Evans (17.7 & 5,4) is averaging in double digits, Mario Chalmers, who missed all of last season because of a ruptured Achilles tendon he sustained in March 2016 started at PG on Saturday and had only six points.The Grizzlies are averaging only 100.7 PPG, which ranks 25th. The pick: Without Conley, Memphis too limited offensively and as noted above, after allowing108.5 PPG last season, the Blazers are allowing just 97.5 PPG so far this season, an 11.0 PPG improvement (that's a BIG deal!). Make Portland a 10* play. |
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11-20-17 | Creighton v. UCLA +2.5 | Top | 100-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: LiAngelo Ball, Cody Riley and Jalen Hill were arrested more than a week ago on suspicion of stealing sunglasses from a Louis Vuitton store while their team was in the Chinese city of Hangzhou. They did not accompany the team on the trip home but were released later. UCLA finally started to resemble the type of team it hoped to be this season, pulling away in the secsond half of Friday’s 96-68 victory over South Carolina State, after owning just a six-point halftime advantage. This coming after a pair of narrow victories over Ga. Tech and Central Arkansa The No. 23 Bruins play Creighton in Kansas City on Monday in the Hall of Fame Classic. The Blue Jays are off to a strong start and enter the week off an upset of No. 20 Northwestern on Wednesday, 92-88. Creighton is 3-0. UCLA: Freshmen Jaylen Hands and Kris Wilkes fueled the second-half surge against South Carolina State. “It was really helpful to us to get that momentum,” Hands told the media after scoring a team-leading 22 points, combining with Wilkes to score 17 of the Bruins’ first 19 points after halftime. The 6-8 Wilkes (17.3 & 7.3) and 6-3 guard Hands (15.3-4.7-37) lead the team in scoring, while junior PG Holiday (14.3 & 5.3 APG) plus 7-0 senior Welsh (13.0 & 11.1) join them in double digits.have. Another freshman, the 6-9 Chris Smith, scored a season-high 15 points in just 21 minutes against South Carolina State. Creighton: The Blue Jays won 25 games last season and eback in the "Big Dance" after a two-year absence. However, after a 17-1 start, Creighton went a modest 8-9 the rest of the way, including a first-round loss in the NCAAs. Three starters return and the junior guard Khyri Thomas scored a career-high 24 points to go with 11 rebounds as Creighton blew an early 15-point lead, but maintained its composure to pull off the road upset at Northwestern. “Our guys fought,” Thomas told reporters. “That’s what we preach. Just fight, be tough and be the better man.” Martin Krampelj, a 6-9 sophomore who averaged just 2.8 & 2.2 LY, added 17 points on 7-of-9 shooting. All-Big East first-team pick Marcus Foster leads the Blue Jays in scoring at 19.3 points per game, and is the first Creighton player since 1970 to score 23 or more points in the first two games of a season. Freshmen Ty-Shon Alexander and Mitch Ballock combined for 20 points against Northwestern. The pick: These are two undefeated and high-scoring teams which will square off in the first semifinal game of the 2017 CBE Hall of Fame Classic Monday night at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. The Bruins are averaging 88.3 PPG, while the Blue Jays average 97.7 PPG. Kansas City is not exactly a neutral floor but it's also not CenturyLink Center in Creighton. The Bruins seemed to "come together" against SC State in the second half and now should be ready to take the next step, a pointspread uin after opening 0-3 ATS. Make UCLA a 10* play. |
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11-19-17 | Pacers v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 120-95 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indiana Pacers are just 8-8 and the Miami Heat only 7-8 as the two teams get set to meet this afternoon at American Airlines Arena in Miami. However, both are coming off impressive wins on Friday night. Indiana overcame a 22-point deficit in a 107-100 home win over the red-hot Detroit Pistons, while Miami built a 25-point lead at Washington before holding on for a 91-88 victory. The Heat welcome the Pacers to town, having won six straight home games against Indiana, including picking up their first win of the season at home against the Pacers back on Oct. 21. Indiana: The Pacers outscored the Pistons 36-19 in the fourth quarter, making 6 of 7 three-pointers. SG Victor Oladipo,who leads Indiana in scoring at 23.1 PPG, posted 21 points (despite by going 6-for-19 from the floor) plus added a career-high 15 rebounds with four assists, one steal and one block in a stellar 39-minute, all-around effort. Lance Stephenson (6.6 & 4.40) scored all 13 of his points in the fourth quarter Friday and chipped in eight rebounds and two assists in 18 quality minutes. Behind Oladipo, the Pacers have five players chipping in between 13.0 and 13.6 PPG. Indiana averages 108.4 PPG (9th) but also allows 108.8 PPG, which ranks 25th. Miami: The Heat looked bad down the stretch against the Wizards, nearly coughing up a 25-point lead in Friday's win. However, they held Washington's star PG John Wall to just eight points. "Our defense is tighter, and our penetrators are getting in the paint," said Heat center Hassan Whiteside when asked by Sun Sports for the key to the victory that snapped a two-game losing streak. "We are not settling for jump shots." Whiteside (16.3 & 14.1) was huge for Miami, posting his seventh double-double in just 10 games this season, going for 22 points (made 10 of 12 shots from the floor) with 16 rebounds and two blocks. Forward James Johnson (12.4 & 5.5) scored 20 points off the bench plus swingman Justise Winslow (6.8 & 5.3) had 10 points, seven rebounds and two steals in just 18 minutes. Miami's starting guards have led the way all season, with PG Dragic averaging 19.0-4.2-4.7 and SG Waiters adding 16.3 PPG. Miami has not scored well (100.6 PPG ranks 26th) but has defended well, allowing 102.0 PPG (8th). The pick: Miami has won six straight meetings at home, including that Oct. 21 meeting this year. In that one, Miami was cruising with a 21-point lead with just 16 1/2 minutes to play, but the Pacers wouldn’t go away. Indiana closed to within just two points with 12 seconds left, before Miami won 122-118. It's true that the Heat are 0-5-2 ATS at home so far but they shot 51.7% in their last game against the Pacers and this time around, won't blow a big lead. Make Miami a 10* play. |
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11-19-17 | Old Dominion v. Dayton +2.5 | Top | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
The Dayton Flyers and the Old Dominion Monarchs face off in final round tournament action at the Gildan Charleston Classic. Both teams lost their first game but ODU will look to finish the tournament on a high note after improving to 3-1 on the year with a 62-44 win over Indiana State and Dayton hopes to do the same, after defeating Ohio 79-65 in moving to 2-1. Dayton is off a 24-win season and lost four senior starters off that team plus head coach Archie Miller left to take the Indiana job. ODU is off a 19-12 season and in his fifth season at ODU, head coach Jeff Jones returns three starters. Old Dominion: PG Caver (11.5 & 4.5 APG) led the team with 22 points on 5 of 12 shooting with three triples and a 9 for 11 mark from the foul line in addition to handing out a team-high six assists in the win over Indiana St.and 3 steals. The 6-10 Trey Porter (11.8 & 6.5) added 16 points (on 6 of 9 from the floor). Jones has a pair of Stith brothers as well, as guard B.J. leads the team in scoring at 12.2 PPG with his 6-7 older brother Brandan adding 7.2 & 5.8 PPG. Dayton: Miller's loss is not all that huge as Anthony Grant takes over (was an assistant under Billy Donovan at Florida and then at OKC in the NBA) plus led VCU and Alabama to NCAA tourney wins as a head coach. The loos of four senior starters can't be dismissed but the lone returning starter, guard Darrell Davis, has come out averaging 20.3 PPG. The 6-7 Cunningham, who missed most of LY with an injury, looks healthy while averaging 15.7 & 9.3 plus the 6-8 Williams (10.0 & 6.3) adds size to a formidable frontcourt. The Monarchs were a disappointment last season (19 wins and no postseason tourney), coming off seasons of 27 and 25 wins. However, I'm not sure this year's team will be much better. ODU ranked 331st in effective FG percentage last season and averaged just 64.5 PPG. In four games so far this season, ODU is averaging 63.2 PPG (322nd) on 40.0% shooting (293rd). Make Dayton a 10* play. |
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11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 115 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raiders were 12-4 last season and after opening 2-0 in 2017, were being touted as "the real deal," a genuine AFC title contender. In contrast the defending champs stumbled to a 2-2 start and alarmingly, had allowed an average of 32.0 PPG. That's on the heels of New England allowing an NFL-low 15.6 PPG in 2016. However, as the two teams get set to meet in this Week 11 game at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, the Raiders check in at just 4-5, while the Pats are 7-2, having once-again reminded all just why the Brady and Belichick combo has won five Super Bowl titles together. New England: Brady has been dominant ever since a poor Week 1 effort, entering this contest having completed 67.3 percent of his passes with 19 TDs, just two INTs (in 343 pass attempts) to earn a QB rating of 108.3 (the Pats rank first with 301.6 YPG through the air and 4th in scoring at 28.6 PPG). Brady would like more help from a running game that averages just 109.7 YPG (16th) but as always, he seems to "make do." However, what Brady really appreciates is the defense's return to form. The naysayers were out in full force saying that while Belichick may be a genius, he could not get the team's awful defense turned around with just a snap of his fingers. Well, I'm not sure what he did but numbers don't lie. During the Pats' five-game winning streak, the team's D has held opponents to 13.4 PPG! Oakland: The Raiders promptly lost four in a row after that 2-0 start and while they enter this game having won two of three, the wins have come by one point over KC (winning TD on the game's final play) and by three points over a Miami team which is on a three-game slide getting outscored 112-to-45! Carr's injured back cost him one full game but after a three-game stretch in which he averaged 144 yards passing, he has aired it out over the past three games, throwing for 1,030 yards with five TDs and three INTs. Marshawn Lynch, whose last game against New England ended with a rush to the one-yard line in Super Bowl XLIX, returned from a one-game suspension to rush for 57 yards and two TDs in a 27-24 win at Miami. However, he's been a bust, with just 323 yards on the season (3.8 YPC), including three games in which he hasn't run for as much as 20 yards! Defensively, the Raiders are allowing 23.8 PPG (22nd) and not only are they tied for last in sacks (13), they have yet to record an interception in 288 pass attempts against them. Are you kidding? The pick: Sometimes, we can over-think things. I will try NOT to make that mistake here. Brady is playing like he's 30-years-old and in 343 pass attempts, he's been picked off twice. He will face an Oakland pass D in this game which is allowing a league-high 71.2% completion, while allowing 14 TDs without a single INT in 288 pass attempts. Opposing QBs have a 110.5 rating against Oakland, the highest in the NFL. Add in that Oakland's pass rush has an NFL-low 13 sacks and just how does anyone expect the Raiders to stop Brady? Can they outscore him? Why? After all, New England is allowing 13.4 PPG during its five-game winning streak. One last thing. This is a neutral-site game but how does it hurt that the Pats went 8-0 SU on the road last season and are 4-0 this season, outscoring opponents 30.0-to-16.8 PPG! Lay the points and make the Pats a 10* play. |
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11-19-17 | Bucs +1.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 111 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Miami Dolphins were supposed to open the 2017 season in Week 1 but Hurricane Irma had other ideas. Ironically enough, both teams were scheduled for a Week 11 bye week, so here we are. The Bucs and Dolphins will meet Sunday in Miami Gardens at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, although both teams' seasons are just about 'toast.' The Bucs opened 2-1 but then lost five in a row, before finally ending their slide with 15-10 win over the Jets last Sunday (Bucs are currently just 3-6 in the 'tougher than nails' NFC South). As for the Dolphins, a 4-2 start now seems 'light-years' away after Miami has not just lost three straight (falling to 4-5 in a division with the 7-2 Pats), but the Dolphins have been dominated in all three losses, getting outscored 112-45! Tampa Bay: QB Jameis Winston sat out last week's win with shoulder issues, replaced by veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, who passed for 187 yards with one TD and one interception. RB Martin is back from his suspension but has averaged only 50.8 YPG rushing in his six games. Tampa Bay averages only 82.8 YPG on the ground (28th) on the season. The Bucs are averaging only 19.2 PPG on the season, ranking 22nd. The defense is also worse than average, allowing 23.1 PPG (20th) on 376.3 YPG (27th). Miami: The Dolphins' defense has been ripped for 112 points in the team's three-game slide (37.3 PPG) but through the team's nine games, Miami's offense ranks dead-last (32nd) in scoring at 15.2 PPG. Cutler has not been the answer at QB, as Miami ranks 29th in passing YPG at 194.9 YPG. With the trade of RB Ajayi at the end of October, 64 percent on Miami's rushing offense is now in Philadelphia. Kenyan Drake has run for 176 yards the last two weeks (taking over for Ajayi) but Miami enters averaging 80.1 YPG on the ground, which ranks 30th. Is it good or bad news that Drake accounted for Miami' first rushing TD of the 2017 season last Sunday? Hard to believe but true. The pick: Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a full-time starter but "in relief," he's more than serviceable. Currently, he is not a drop-off from Winston, whose confidence had eroded even before his shoulder injury. Miami's defense is now as bad as it's defense. Make Tampa Bay an 8* play. |
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11-18-17 | Utah v. Washington -17 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Utah Utes lost to the Washington State Cougars 33-25 last Saturday, falling to 5-5, including 2-5 Pac-12 South. The Utes will travel to Husky Stadium in Seattle to take on the 8-2 Washington Huskies (5-2 Pac-12 North). Washington is No. 16 in the latest AP poll but 18th in the CFP rankings, behind No. 11 USC and No. 14 Washington State of the Pac-12. Washington lost a week ago Friday 30-22 at the Stanford Cardinal 30-22. Washington’s usually strong defense couldn't contain Bryce Love and the Stanford rushing attack, as Love rushed for 166 yards and three TDs. Utah: The Utes had no answers for the Washington State QB Luke Falk, who passed for 311 yards and three TDs. Utah QB Tyler Huntley completed 21 of 39 passes for 305 yards and a TD but with three INTs. Huntley (13 TDs / 9 INTs) is streaky and as noted, was picked off three times in the loss to Washington State, one week after throwing four TD passes. Utah averages 29.0 PPG (65th) and allows 24.1 PPG (45th). Washington: QB Jake Browning has completed 68.4% for 2,097 yards with 16 TDs and five INTs. He is far off his pace of 2016, when he threw for 3,430 yards with 47 TDs and nine INTs. In fact, Browning has failed to throw a TD pass in three of his past four games. RB Myles Gaskin has run for 1,038 yards (6.3 YPC) and 13 TDs. Washington averages 36.9 PPG (21st) but the team thrives on its defense, The Huskies are allowing just 13.0 PPG (2nd) on 258.5 YPG (4th). The pick: Utah comes in having lost five of its last six games and Washington has won nine of the previous 10 meetings between the two schools. What's more, Washington is 11-1 SU at home since the start of 2016, including 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents 46.2-to-11.2 PPG. Lay the points and make Washington an 8* play. |
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11-18-17 | Bucks -8 v. Mavs | Top | 79-111 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Mark Cuban decided to bypass Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2013 draft as a means to protect salary cap space in an effort to go after then-free agent Dwight Howard. Dallas traded down and eventually drafted guard Shane Larkin. And so it goes. The 8-6 Milwaukee Bucks are sure glad they have Antetokounmpo, who has been the talk of the league in the early going of the 2017-18 season. Cuban and his NBA-worst Mavericks (2-14 SU & 4-12 ATS) will get a front-row view of the "Greek Freak" when the Bucks visit American Airlines Center in Dallas tonight. Milwaukee: The Bucks arrive in Dallas on a season-best four-game winning streak. Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.6-10.0-4.6 on the season and has topped 20 points in 13 of 14 games this year. It's also worth mentioning that Milwaukee hasn't lost since PG Eric Bledsoe joined the team. He is averaging 13.3 PPG, despite shooting a 36.7 percent, including a woeful 3-of-18 from three-point range. A healthy Middleton is averaging 18.4 PPG and last year's ROY Brodgdon is averaging 14.8 & 4.0. Milwaukee is shooting well (48.2% ranks 3rd) but not scoring enough (103.9 PPG ranks 20th). Dallas: The Mavs are a mess and going nowhere. Dallas suffered a disappointing 111-87 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday as it built a 12-point halftime lead before being drubbed 68-32 in the second half. The Mavericks are an NBA-worst 1-8 at home and Friday's scoring output was their lowest of the campaign. The Mavs badly need a victory after losing four straight and 10 of their last 11 contests. However, are they already running out of time to turn the season around? Rookie PG Dennis Smith has shown flashes of the type of player he might become, averaging 15.2-4.2-4.6. However, the aging Dirk Nowitzki is averaging just 10.5 PPG and the Mavs are struggling to keep up offensively. Dallas is scoring 98.2 PPG (28th) on 42.0 percent shooting (29th). The pick: Bledsoe will get his shooting touch straightened out but for know, the Bucks have said his energy has helped spark his teammates. The Mavericks have excelled against the Bucks in recent seasons by winning eight of the last nine meetings and the Bucks have dropped their last four games in Dallas (most recent victory occurring Feb. 26, 2013). However, that was then and this is now! Make Milwaukee a 10* play. |
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11-18-17 | Arizona University v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 45 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The 7-3 Arizona Wildcats will travel to Autzen Stadium in Eugene to meet the 5-5 Oregon Ducks this Saturday in Pac-12 action. Arizona beat Oregon State 49-28 at home last Saturday, improving to 5-2 in the Pac-12 South. It's been quite a bounce-back season for Rich-Rod's Wildcats, who were just 3-9 in 2016, including 1-8 in league play. Oregon is coming off a bye last Saturday, having lost badly in its last outing, 38-3 at Washington on Nov. 4th. The 5-5 Ducks are coming off a 4-8 season last year but a win here would make the bowl-eligible. Arizona: The Wildcats amassed an outstanding 534 yards rushing against the Beavers (a school recrod!), led QB Khalil Tate who rushed for 206 yards and 2 TD’s on just 16 carries. Tate has been an unstoppable force on the ground since taking over QB duties for the Wildcats. He has completed 61.9% of his passes with eight TDs and four INTs and averages just 124.8 YPG through the air. However, he's rushed for 1,293 yards on an incredible 11.6 YPC with 11 TDs. Arizona is now averaging (due to Tate) 348.2 YPG on the ground (3rd-best in the nation) and 44.4 PPG (also 3rd-best). Defensively, the Wildcats are allowing 31.9 PPG (99th). Oregon: The Ducks also depend on their running game, especially with No. 1 QB Justin Herbert still sidelined with a collarbone injury. RB Royce Freeman is a stud who has 1,218 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and 10 TDs. He leads a ground game averaging 255.2 YPG (11th). The Ducks average 32.3 PPG (40th) but also allow 30.1 PPG (89th). Here's the rub. The Ducks averaged 49.6 points in their first five games (4-1) but have been stuck in neutral without Herbert, averaging 15 points and going 1-4 with freshman Braxton Burmeister under center. The pick: Obviously, I'm hoping Herbert will be cleared to play but either way, I'm backing the Ducks. Oregon's defense is allowing just 129.0 YPG on the ground, which is Arizona's strength with Tate. Oregon ranks 25th nationally in rushing yards allowed, which is 2nd-best in the Pac-12. Make Oregon an 8* play. |
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11-18-17 | Harvard -3.5 v. Manhattan | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Harvard Crimson opened with back-to-back home wins but fell 73-69 at Holy Cross when the team's late rally (down 10 in the first half) fell short. The Crimson will visit NYC Saturday afternoon to take on the Manhattan Jaspers, who opened their 2017-18 season by edging St. Francis (NY) 80-79 in overtime. Harvard: The Crimson are off seasons of 14 and 18 wins (well down from previous Amaker teams) but return four starters, including PG Bryce Aiken. Aiken leads the team at 18.3 PPG (4.0 rebounds & 3.3 assists) plus the 6-7 Towns (16.3 & 6.7) and the 6-9 Lewis (10.0 & 5.3) are also contributing double digit scoring. Big guard Justin Bassey chips in 5.7-6.3-3.0. Holy Cross out-shot Harvard 50.0 to 42.3 percent but the Crimson kept the game close by winning the battle of the boards, 34-19. However, in the end, the Crimson just made too many mistakes, as they had 23 TOs! Manhattan: The Jaspers are off a lousy 10-22 season but do return four starters, including 6-5 senior Rich Williams, who is back for a fifth season off last year's injury. He had 21 points and six rebounds in the team's opening-game win, joined by three other double-digit scorers. Fellow guard Zavier Turner had 16 points off the bench, although he played 35 minutes. Up front, the 6-8 Crawford had 11 & 5 and the 6-9 Waterman added 10 & 9. The pick: Manhattan will be much more competitive this season with a healthy Williams but Harvard is the better team with a solid core of experienced players. Make Harvard a 10* |
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11-18-17 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Big-12 schools Wets Virginia (22nd) and Texas (23rd) both opened ranked in the AP's preseason poll. The two teams meet at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown on Saturday with the 5-5 (4-3 in Big 12) Texas Longhorns looking to avoid a fourth straight losing season (note: Texas football began back in 1893 and the only time the school has produced four straight losing season was back from 1935 through 1938), while the 7-3 West Virginia Mountaineers are one of three teams at 5-2 in the Big 12 (along with TCU and Oklahoma State), trailing the 6-1 first-place Sooners. Understandably, Texas is unranked, while the Mountainers are 24th in the AP and 25th in the Coaches poll but were left out the CFP rankings. Texas: The Longhorns entered last Saturday’s home game against lowly Kansas with three losses in their previous four contests but were able to hold off Kansas 42-27, climbing back at .500. QBs Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger both threw TD passes in the game, as Tom Herman just can't decide which QB is his No. 1 guy. Sophomore Buechele is the more polished passer and freshman Ehlinger the bigger threat to run. The Texas offense is down slightly from last season (averaging 29.9 PPG after averaging 31 PPG in 2016) but the defense has made excellent strides. Texas allowed 31.5 PPG on almost 450 YPG last season but has cut that to 21.9 PPG (3rd) on 367.3 YPG (40th). West Virginia: The Mountaineers have won four of their last five games to reach eight victories for a third straight year. There is no uncertainty at the QB position for West Va, as Will Grier is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 3,440 yards with 34 TDs and only 12 INTs. Grier has a trio of outstanding WRs. Jennings (82 catches) and White (51 catches), who both will go over 1,000 yards in receiving yards by year's end plus Sills has 55 catches and an NCAA-high 18 TD receptions. Remember the great line about the NFL's Cris Carter? All he does is catch TDs! The West Va. offense averages 39.0 PPG (12th) but its defense allows 29.2 PPG (82nd) on 436.4 YPG (102nd). The pick: West Va. head coach Dana Holgorsen has it right. “I’m putting everybody on high alert on this 5-5 thing (with Texas),” Holgorsen said at his weekly Tuesday news conference. “We’re sitting here at 7-3 (overall) with three losses to (top-20-ranked) teams, and they (the Longhorns) aren’t any different. Those guys have lost close games to the likes of Southern Cal, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU, and the last time I checked, those teams are in the top 15, right?” Texas, meanwhile, needs one more win to become bowl-eligible in coach Tom Herman’s first season in Austin, and the new coach also is looking for a signature victory. “We’ve got to win one that we’re not supposed to,” Herman said at his Monday news conference. “I think right now, save for the very first game, we’ve won the ones that we’re supposed to and we haven’t won the ones that people said we weren’t supposed to. So I think that’s got to be the next step.” Texas out-gained West Va. 536-383 in LY’s 24-20 home defeat and how does one overlook Tom Herman's 8-1 ATS mark as an underdog since 2015? Make Texas a 10* play. |
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11-17-17 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-146 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-7 New Orleans Pelicans are coming off a 125-116 home loss to the Toronto Raptors and now head to the Pepsi Center in Denver to take on the 8-6 Nuggets, who couldn't 'buy a basket' in Monday’s 99-82 loss in Portland against the Trail Blazers. The Pelicans allowed the Raptors to shoot 59.2 percent from the floor plus Toronto went 16-of-34 from three-point range. As for the Nuggets, Denver scored 11 points fewer than their previous low this season Monday in Portland, while shooting just 35.7 percent from the floor. New Orleans: “The rotations were bad, communication was pretty bad,” New Orleans leading scorer DeMarcus Cousins told reporters after the home loss to the Raptors. “We let guys that are known shooters get wide open shots. That’s on us. We were a bit limited.” however, there was some good news on Wednesday, as PG Rajon Rondo made his first start of the season Wednesday in his second appearance since returning from core muscle surgery in the preseason. He contributed four points and eight assists in 14 minutes. “I’m just taking my time and trying to do the right thing,” Rondo told the Times-Picayune. “I haven’t had any practices and these games are like practices. I’m just trying to make sure I manage it correctly. It’s a marathon not a sprint.” It's no surprise that the Pelicans' version of "the Twin Towers," Cousins (28.0 & 13.7) and Davis (25.6 & 11.4) are doing what they have been expected to do. Denver: The Nuggets 'ugly' offensive effort Monday in Portland "came out of nowhere," as Denver entered that contest averaging 113 PPG in Its previous three contests. 6-10 center Nikola Jokic had averaged 22.7 PPG in that stretch and was named Western Conference Player of the Week. “We were in a very good offensive rhythm coming in here,” Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters. “And they took us out of our rhythm right away.” Jokic (16.4 & 11.6) leads six players averaging in double figures in scoring. PF Paul Millsap (15.7 & 6.4) has picked up his production by scoring 17 per game over the last four and those two frontcourt guys are joined by guards Barton (14.9 & 5.4), Murray (13.2), Harris (12.4) and Mudiay (11.6). The pick: The Denver Nuggets gained confidence by going 5-1 on their recent homestand but that positive mojo was dealt a blow with that humbling loss at Portland on Monday night. The Pelicans scored a 25-point upset in the Pepsi Center last season and the team comes into this game having gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road contests. Make New Orleans an 8* play. |
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11-17-17 | UNLV v. New Mexico -2 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The setting for this Friday night MWC contest will be University Stadium in Albuquerque, where the 3-7 New Mexico Lobos (1-5 in MWC play) will host the 4-6 UNLV Rebels (3-3 in league play). The Rebels still have an outside shot at earning bowl-eligibility but will need to win here and then at Nevada in their season-finale on Nov. 25th. As for New Mexico, the Lobos entered the 2017 season off back-to-back bowl appearances, including finishing 9-4 in 2016 after edging UTSA 23-20 in the New Mexico Bowl. Obviously, the team's record is a major disappointment. As for the Rebels, even an outside shot at a bowl berth is a "good sign, for a school that has made just one bowl appearance (2013) over the previous 16 years heading into the current season. UNLV: The team's head coach is Tony Sanchez, of Bishop Gorman High School fame (Las Vegas). The transition from legendary HS head coach to UNLV has not gone smoothly, as the Rebels were 3-9 in his first season and 4-8 last year. The team averages 29.2 PPG (65th) led by a running game averaging 239.5 YPG (20th). RB Lexington Thomas leads the way, running for 1,146 yards (6.4 YPC) with 15 TDs. Senior QB Tony Stanton lost his job to freshman Armani Rogers but regained it when Rogers suffered a concussion. Rogers is cleared to play but Sanchez is sticking with Stanton, who threw for 325 yards and two TDs (also two INTs) in last week's 31-21 loss to BYU. UNLV's defense doesn't help much, allowing 32.3 PPG (103rd) on 461.1 YPG (116th). New Mexico: Bob Davie's option attack has produced three seasons of 400-plus YPG rushing in five previous years at New Mexico (team averaged 370 & 388 in the two 'down' years!). However, while this year's team averages 226.3 YPG on the ground to rank 22nd in the nation, that's a significant drop-off from previous years. QBs Jordan and Tuioto have both struggled, completing around 50% with six TDs and nine INTs between them. New Mexico's D is better than UNLV's but not by much, allowing 30.9 PPG (ranks 93rd). The pick: At this pointspread price, one must look at UNLV's straight-up road record, as "staying within a margin" doesn't really come into play. UNLV entered this season 8-51 SU on the road the last 10 years (2-10 under Sanchez) and the team's 2-2 road record in 2017 hardly builds confidence in a game the Rebels will almost have to win in order to cover. New Mexico was 11-4 at home the last two seasons and while the Lobos are just 2-3 SU at home in 2017, I'll back them in their final home game of what's been a very disappointing year. Make New Mexico a 10* play. |
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11-17-17 | Thunder v. Spurs | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
The set: The Thunder's "new look" of adding Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to reigning MVP Russell Westbrook has not been a smooth transition. However, a favorable portion of the schedule (three home games against sub-.500 teams) has allowed OKC to get back to .500 at 7-7. However, "the degree of difficulty" is about to go up, starting with tonight's visit to the AT&T Center. The 9-6 San Antonio Spurs had won five of six before falling flat in a 98-86 loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. Oklahoma City: The Thunder come in off wins over the Clippers, Mavs and Bulls. Carmelo Anthony (back) returned from a one-game layoff to notch his first double-double with Oklahoma City against the Bulls (18 & 11) but he struggled from the floor along with fellow stars Paul George and Russell Westbrook. The trio shot 13-for-38 against Chicago, which left them taking pride in a defensive effort that held Chicago to seven first-quarter points and a 34.7 percent mark from the floor for the game. The Thunder are still trying to find the best use of their Big 3. Is the combo of George (21.9 & 5.9) and Anthony (20.1 & 6.2) added to Westbrook (20.3-8.1-9.6) making OKC a better team? As one can see, Westbrook's numbers are down across the better and the team's three-game winning streak leaves them at just 7-7. San Antonio: The Spurs will not be "the Spurs" until Kawhi Leonard gets back. Wednesday's loss at Minnesota represented the team's worst offensive effort of the season, 79 points on 41.8% shooting. Foul trouble limited Aldridge to 28 minutes in the loss to Minnesota, his second-lowest total of the season. The team's leading scorer at 22.0 PPG, was held to 15 points on 5-of-14 shooting. Gay (12.0), Green (10.6) and Gasol (10.5) are barely scoring in double digits for the Spurs. The pick: The Spurs are having real trouble finding reliable offensive options, while waiting for Leonard and PG Tony Parker to make their season debuts. I'm not sure that changes here against the Thunder, who are playing well defensively (OKC ranks 2nd in both PPG allowed at 97.1 and defensive FG percentage at 43.1) while having their own problems figuring out the new dynamic of how best to utilize its "Big 3." The Thunder will visit a dangerous New Orleans team next, then return home to host the Warriors and the surprising Pistons, giving them a difficult four-game stretch. Starting off that stretch "on the right foot,' is important. That's the bet. Make OKC a 10* play. |
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11-17-17 | Fordham v. Florida State -14.5 | Top | 43-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: 1-0 Florida State and 1-1 Fordham get to travel to Montego Bay to face off in a 2017 Jamaica Classic matchup on Friday night. The Seminoles got their season off on the right foot with an 87-67 home win over George Washington on Tuesday, while Fordham rebounded from an opening 55-54 home loss to Miami-Ohio with an 81-68 victory over LIU, also at home.. Fordham: The Rams are coming off a 13-19 season and lost three starters. A bunch of players are back but most lack quality playing time. Third-year head coach Jeff Neubauer will be expecting big things from preseason All-Atlantic 10 third-teamer Joseph Chartouny, who set a school record last year with 94 steals and already has nine in two games, while averaging a team-high 14.5 points and 6.0 rebounds. Fellow guard Will Tavares, the school's only scholarship senior with Division I experience, is leading the team with 7.0 rebounds per game and is tied with the 6-7 Raut (a freshman) for scoring at 14.0 points per game. 6-10 junior Prokop Slanina recorded personal highs in the win over LIU with 19 points and 11 rebounds for his first career double-double (he's averaging 12.0 & 6.0). Florida State: The Seminoles are off a 26-win season, earning the school's first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2012. However, four starters are gone, including the team's top-three scorers. Guards Bacon (17.2 & 4.2) and Rathan-Mayes (10.6 & 4.8 APG) are among the missing, as is the "one & done" 6-10 Isaac (12.0 & 7.1), who was drafted sixth in the first round by Orlando. Junior guard Terance Mann lived up to preseason expectations in the team's season-opening win with team highs of 17 points and eight rebounds (six offensive). "The sky's the limit for him," head coach Hamilton said at the postgame press conference. "He has a knack for putting the ball in the basket. I thought he was extremely aggressive tonight. He had five blocks. He must have chased several more. I thought he went after rebounds. ... I think he's taken a lot of pride, and over the season he's going to get better and better." However, he was just one of five players in double digits, including starters Koumadje (14 & 7), who is a 7-4 junior center and Cofer (15 & 4), a 6-8 senior PF. The pick: FSU lost plenty off LY's team but Mann is poised for a big year plus the duo of Koumadje (the tallest player in FSU history) and Cofer should fill in nicely for Isaac. Fordham does not have the overall talent nor depth to 'hang' with the Seminoles. Make FSU a 10* play. |
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11-16-17 | Titans +7 v. Steelers | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Two first-place teams meet Thursday night at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field, as the 6-3 Tennessee Titans (tied atop the AFC South with the Jacksonville Jags) visit the 7-2 Pittsburgh Steelers (alone atop the NFC North and owners of a three-game lead). The Titans had high expectations entering 2017 but opened just 2-3. However, Tennessee enters Thursday's game on a four-game winning streak, beating the Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals (not exactly a "murderer's row"). The Steelers opened 3-1 but were then shocked at home by the Jags, losing 30-9. Big Ben was awful in that game (five INTs!) and prompted him to question "if he still had it?" Question answered, as the Steelers have won four in a row and currently hold down the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Tennessee: QB Marcus Mariota (1,783 passing yard with just seven TDs and six INTs /QB rating of 83.1) is battling ankle and shoulder injuries but expects to play through the pain. The team's two-pronged rushing attack features DeMarco Murray (433 yards, four TDs) and Derrick Henry (409 yards, three TDs), ranking 8th at 124.8 YPG. The offense comes in averaging only 22.8 PPG (13th) on the season and pretty much needs to find a way to get its offense on track on the road after scoring a combined 36 points in its last three games away from home. Defensively, Tennessee allows 23.7 PPG (22nd) on 328.3 YPG (16th). Pittsburgh: Roethlisberger has thrown for 2,298 yards with 12 TDs and INTs (83.8 QB rating), hardly 'career' numbers. However, he has the best WR in the NFL on his side in Antonio Brown (60 catches / 882 yards / 3 TDs). He also may play with the NFL's best RB as well, in Le’Veon Bell (840 YR with 5 TDs / 40 catches). It will come as no surprise that Pittsburgh's D ranks second in points allowed (16.4) and total yards allowed (284.4). The pick: I noted earlier that Big Ben is not exactly having a career season but that's actually an understatement. Truth is, his completion percentage of 61.1 and QB rating of 83.8 represent his lowest marks since 2008. That's led to three of Pittsburgh’s last four wins coming by six points or less, with the Steelers having scored 20 points or less in four of their last five. The Titans know a lot about "close games" as well (five of last seven have been decided by six points or less) and come in 3-0 against AFC North opponents in 2017. Take the points and make the Titans an 8* play. |
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11-16-17 | Warriors -7 v. Celtics | Top | 88-92 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics opened the season with back-to-back losses plus lost prized FA addition Gordon Hayward for the entire year in the team's first game (at Cleveland). However, Boston has ripped off 13 consecutive wins (11-1-1 ATS) to give them an NBA-best 13-2 record. It prompted Golden State head coach Steve Kerr to proclaim that the Celtics are "the team of the future in the East." The Celtics welcome the NBA's ""team of the present" tonight to TD Garden, as the Warriors come to town winners of seven in a row and the West's best record of 11-3. The Celtics own the best defense in the NBA by limiting opponents to an average of 94.5 PPG, while the Warriors are scoring an average of 119.6 PPG, to lead all NBA teams. Golden State: The Warriors' "Core Four" of Curry (25.2-4.7-6.7), Durant (24.8-7.5-5.2), Thompson (20.6) and Green (10.9-7.5-6.6) stand "above the crowd," as does Golden State's depth. The backcourt depth features Young, Stephenson and McCaw (listed in order of scoring averages), while the wings and frontcourt consists of West, Casspi, Iquodala, McGee, Looney and Pachulia (again, arranged in order of scoring prowess). PG Stephen Curry sat out Monday's 110-100 win over the Orlando Magic with a thigh contusion but is probable to return when the Warriors kick off a four-game road trip on Thursday. Golden State also leads the NBA in FG percentage (51.9%) and assists (31.3 per game). Boston: The Celtics owned the East's best record last season but knew they needed "change" to compete with the Cavs and eventually, with the Warriors. The rebuilt Boston Celtics lost Hayward (see above) but new PG Kyrie Irving (20.6 & 5.2 APG) has been terrific, as has rookie Jason Tatum (14.0 & 5.3). Boston gave up Avery Bradley to get Marcus Morris and over the last four games, he's averaged 15.3 PPG and grabbed 10 rebounds in his last game (Boston needs him to rebound, especially without Hayward). Veteran center Horford (15.3-8.8-4.5) has been superb plus plus second-year SF Brown (14.7 & 6.7) is now a starter and looking every bit as good as Boston had hoped he'd be when was the team's first pick of the 2016 draft. The pick: The Celtics currently own the NBA's best record but Golden State owns a better point-differential, plus-11.9 to plus-8.1. That's because in Golden State's current seven-game winning streak, the Warriors have won by an average margin of 19.9 PPG! The visiting team has taken the last five in the series plus the Warriors have won their last four trips to Boston. Make Golden State a 10* play. |