Boston has gotten itself back into the playoff mix by going 9-2 in June. But they are still only fourth in their own division where they don’t have much chance of catching the hated Yankees. So it’s probably “Wild Card or bust” for the BoSox and they need to continue winning.

Lucky for them, they are facing the A’s to start the week. Out in Oakland, the Red Sox swept a three-game series earlier this month. They outscored the A’s 20-4 in those three games. 

Boston has posted four shutouts during their 9-2 run. I know that two of them were 1-0 games and they have two more one-run wins this month as well. But I think we’re “safe” playing the run line tonight. Quite frankly, I don't think this game will be close. 

The A’s have just one win in June. They will start Koenig, whose first start saw him give up four runs in four innings. The A’s are also a terrible team offensively, ranking last in average, last in on base percentage, 29th in slugging and 29th in runs per game. 

I do think the fact the Red Sox haven’t needed many runs to win lately bodes well. They are hitting .262 as a team at Fenway, so they should put up a decent number tonight. Pivetta should handle the A’s lineup again as he threw seven shutout innings the last time he faced them. In 8 of his 12 starts, Pivetta has allowed three runs or less. He had 11 strikeouts in his last start. Lay the -1.5!

The Braves are red hot. They won their 12th straight game last night, beating Washington 9-5. The win streak has last year’s World Series Champs firmly back in the Wild Card mix in the National League.

As for the Nationals, things aren’t looking so good. They are in last place in the East Division and already there’s a six game gap between them and fourth place. I’d be shocked if they escaped the basement. 

But surprisingly, my numbers say to give the Nats a try today, albeit on the run line. On the mound, Jackson Tetreault is set to make his big league debut. There's the "unknown factor" here, which may throw Atlanta for a loop. I also really like the odds we're getting, while still being able to play the run line. 

Washington hits lefties pretty well, so I expect them to get the job done against Max Fried. Earlier in the year, the Nationals beat Fried as +195 underdogs on the money line.

Note that Washington may change starters prior to game time. I’m rolling with them regardless. I’m more confident in their ability to hit lefties than whomever the starter is. Also, the Nationals’ bullpen has been a lot better at home so far and the Braves just lost All Star Ozzie Albies to a broken foot. Take the run line (+1.5) here as we’re getting solid odds. 

Neither of our two NBA Finalists have suffered consecutive defeats since the playoffs began. If that pattern holds, that means Boston will win this series in seven games. But that would also mean the Celtics win twice on the road. I don’t see that happening. Look for Golden State to take a 3-2 series lead Monday night as they are back home.

The Warriors have lost at home only 11 times all year. Game 1 of this series was one of those 11, but it was also the only home game they’ve lost during the playoffs. They are +10.5 points per game for the year at home and as I’ve mentioned before, defense improves for the Warriors here as they allow just 103.2 points per game compared to 108.9 on the road.

The Warriors have played 11 home games in the playoffs. Not only have they won 10 of them, but eight of those wins have come by double digits. They’ve covered five of the last six.

Steph Curry continues to be other-worldly. He’s averaging 34.3 points per game in the NBA Finals and has made 25 threes in four games. He’s shooting almost 50 percent from behind the arc. Curry’s supporting cast should help out more in Game 5 as role players typically shoot better at home.

This is a huge game where it’s very likely the winner goes on to take the series. I just see Curry and Golden State as being more likely to step up. Lay the points.

The Jays have owned the Orioles, Mondays opponent. Their bats have come alive, especially when Manoah, today’s starter, is on the mound. Manoah has been as good as anyone this year, with a 1.81 ERA over 10 starts. At 7-1 he has not just effective,but consistent, with no poor starts to date.

The Orioles have won a pair but face a much tougher opponent in the Jays. Looking at their opposition, it has been a while since they faced a starter of Manoah’s caliber. Their rookie Bradish (6.45 ERA) starts on Monday. He generally has not been sharp, and won’t likely pitched for length, but has he had run support! He has won 3 straight games, and O’s have slugged 30 runs in his last three outings. Do not expect similar results against Manoah.

The Orioles have had a good bullpen lately and they are going to need it on Monday. Manoah pitches for length, Bradish doesn’t. The Jays are a huge favorite and have one of the best offenses in the league when clicking. They are averaging almost 8 runs scored a game, far more than will likely be needed. Take the Jays on the Run line to win, at – 1 ½.

The best time to take the Celtics, at least in the playoffs, has been when they are coming off a loss. Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, they are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread coming off a loss. Look for that trend to continue in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. 

After exploding in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Celtics fell apart in the third quarter of Game 2. They ended up losing 107-88, their largest margin of defeat in the entire playoffs (previous worst loss was 12). 

The team shot 37.5% in Game 2. At home, they’ll easily improve that number. Three-point shooting has been good in both games. Interestingly, everyone except Jayson Tatum seemed to shoot well in the first game. In the second game, Tatum was the only one to really show up. I’m looking for a more balanced effort in Game 3.

Golden State is an average team on the road, 25-23 with 109.1 points per game scored and 109.0 allowed. They allow six more points per game on the road than they allow at home, which is a big difference. 

Speaking of defense, look for Boston to do a better job on Steph Curry in this game. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS off a double digit loss this year. I figured that the Warriors wouldn’t lose both games at home, which is why I was on them in Game 2. But they’ve lost three of four on the road and aren’t winning both games in Boston. Lay the points.

Winners of 7 straight, the Yankees pitchers have an ERA of under 2 in the last two weeks. They’ve just finished a stretch of 5 straight games when they gave up 1 or less runs PER GAME. Left hander Cortes is leading the pack. Opposing batters hit just .158 vs Cortes in May. He is not overpowering, just wildly effective, giving up just 2 runs over 15 innings in his last two starts. The Yankees won’t need much from their relievers with Cortes on the mound, but if they do, there is no bullpen better at the moment.

The Twins have been hovering around .500 lately, with pretty average hitting and a pitching staff, both starters and relievers, with inflated numbers. Chris Archer is not his old self, but he has been reasonably effective in very short starts this season. Don’t expect more than 5 innings from Archer. While his last start was a 5 inning 1 run effort, his ERA has drifted up over 5 in the last month. The Twins will likely dip into the pen fairly early, and an ERA close to 5.00 lately is not a good look against a team offense as hot as the Yankees’. Did I say how hot? Try .297 BA and a .945 OPS.

The Yankees are obviously favored, but are a fine wager on the runline.  Take the Yankees - 1 1/2!

It is the Nationals’ Josiah Gray vs Miami’s ace Alcantara in the second game of the Marlins’ home series. Gray (4.71 ERA) has pitched well in his last two starts, but has had some ugly outings this year. He has faced the Marlins twice this season, allowing 3 and 4 runs over 11 innings total, but is 4-0 on the road.

Alcantara is on a tear, with three straight victories and a sparkling 1.81 ERA. He has allowed just 1 run with 29 Ks over 24 innings in those three starts. You really couldn’t ask for more.

Both teams struggle for wins, but Alcantara tends to earn all of his. Gray has had some solid run support in a number of his victories, and that will likely not be the case today. The Marlins are hitting surprisingly well in their last 10 games, especially vs right-handers, and better than the Nationals in that period. Both bullpens have been very poor but Alcantara will very likely pitch later into the game than Gray. With some especially short outings by the Nationals’ starters lately, Washington could be in a real bind for relievers today. It seems it is an underdog day today. I am taking the Marlins on the Run line. I believe they are good for the extra runs.

The Astros failed me last night. But I’m so confident in them bouncing back today that I’ll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line.

Benches cleared in the ninth, but it was Seattle that dealt the real blow, winning 7-4. But if you look at the box score, you’ll realize Houston had more hits (10 to 7) and that some more timely hitting (they were 1 for 9 when they had runners in scoring position) could have gotten them the “W.” 

The loss was just the second for Houston over its past eight games. They lead the American League West with a 35-20 mark and they have only played 21 home games (14-7). Seattle is 13-20 on the road and remains five games below .500 overall.

Justin Verlander should dominate the M’s tonight. He has a 0.80 WHIP this year and has lost only one of his last seven starts. That one loss did come to Seattle. But Verlander took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his last start. 

For Seattle, Chris Flexen is still winless away from home and comes into tonight’s start sporting a 4.55 ERA. He started opposite Verlander on May 27th and got the win, but is 1-5 with a 5.26 ERA in seven career starts vs. Houston. Lay the -1.5.

It’s difficult for me to believe that the Warriors will lose two straight home games. Before a Boston three-point barrage hit them in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Warriors held a double digit lead. They are 4-0 this postseason off a loss, three of the four wins coming by at least 10 points.

Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, the Celtics have not won three games in a row. They are 0-2 ATS off back to back wins in the previous two series, dropping those games by a combined 19 points.

Boston isn’t going to make more than half of its three point attempts again. Al Horford was 6 of 8 from distance while Derrick White went 5 of 8. Those specific contributions are highly unlikely to be repeated in Game 2. 

Golden State is due for a strong effort at the defensive end. They’ve permitted an average of 113.7 points their last five games. For the year, they allow only 103.5 at home.

Steph Curry ran wild in the first quarter, but other than that, there were no standout performances from the Warriors at the offensive end. Lots of room for improvement in Game 2, whether you’re talking Draymond Green (2 for 12 in Game 1) or Jordan Poole (2 for 7). Lay the points. 

The Red Sox are the hottest hitting team in the MLB over the last two weeks with a .309 batting average, a .915 OPS, and 24 home runs. Oakland’s batting average is 80 points less and has less than half the homeruns in the same period. With all that power, The Sox still can’t seem to win two games in a row. Friday night could be the night for the Sox, as the A’s, at 1-6, struggle to win at all, and have been limited to a single run in 4 of 10 starts.

Eovaldi starts for the Red Sox, and other than one miserable outing, he has been very solid. Eovaldi has one ugly stat this year; he has given up 16 home runs to date, accounting for almost all of his earned runs. On the plus side, Eovaldi pitched a 9 inning 2 ER complete game in his last appearance.

He faces Kaprielien, who returned from the IL on May 1, and has already pitched 5 starts. Not one of his outings has been over 5 innings, and in his last two games he has given up a run an inning. He too has been a victim of the long ball.

Boston’s bullpen has been roughed up but not nearly as badly as the A’s relievers, who are struggling along at a 6.23 ERA.

If you are going to give up the long ball, the A’s are a far saver option than the Red Sox. Not only do I think the Sox will win on Friday night, I think they will do it in style. Take Boston on the run line, at – 1 ½.

I can’t say that I expected there would be a Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but here we are. The Heat stayed alive with a 111-103 win on Friday night and get to host the deciding game. They are still underdogs, however. While that may sound tantalizing, look for Boston to advance to the NBA Finals.

Defensively, the Celtics had totally shut down the Heat for two games before Jimmy Butler exploded for 47 points in Game 6. Besides Butler, the rest of the Heat's starting five has scored just 89 points in the last three games combined. I do not think they can count on another game like that from Butler.

Boston is 15-4 straight up off a loss as a favorite this season and 14-5 against the spread. They are also 31-16 ATS on the road. Most important of all though is the fact the Celtics are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS off a loss in this postseason.

All five wins have been by at least eight points and three of them have been by more than 20. They’ve already won a Game 7 in these playoffs, over Milwaukee, though that one was at home.

The last time the Celtics lost back to back games was late March. Before that, it was mid-January. Everyone was writing off the Heat going into Game 6, a mistake in retrospect, however now it is time to buy low on Boston

The Royals haven’t had much success against the Twins at just 1-5 in recent match-ups. They haven’t been beating anyone else lately either, losing 6 of 7, and allowing 6 or more runs in each of those losses. Pitching, and in particular, relief pitching has been the culprit with a bullpen ERA approaching 7.00 for the last 10 games. The Twins, on the other hand, are 8-2, thanks to their starters, who have an ERA of just 1.57 in their last 10 starts.

Both these teams are hitting well. The usually anemic Royals have reached heady heights, climbing to 8th in the league over the last 10 games. Don’t count on this necessarily continuing. The Twins are a decent hitting team for the season who are also hitting well over the last two weeks. They certainly flexed their offensive muscle in their last series against the Royals.

Bailey Ober (2.55 ERA) starts for the Twins. He was on the IL for three weeks in May, but returned in the same form, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings. Other than a 4 run first start, Ober has given up 1 run or less in all of his other starts. Royals’ pitcher Keller’s first starts were fine, but he has slipped badly in his last three starts. His ERA has doubled, climbing to 4.15 in May. The temptation will be to leave Keller in too long. He struggles in later innings, but the Royals cannot count on their bullpen.

The Twins are dominant at home, and almost unbeatable as a home favorite. The Royals aren’t impressive at all on the road. Keller might have his hands full on Friday. Off a loss and with their winning streak snapped, the Twins will be extra-motivated against a struggling Royals team. Take the Twins on the run line, at – 1 ½.

Dallas kept its season alive with a 119-109 win in Game 4. Despite never trailing after the first quarter and enjoying a 29-point advantage entering the fourth, things did get a bit too close for comfort near the end of the game. Thankfully, here we need not worry about the Mavericks having to win by any kind of margin. I’m taking the points.

The “world” will likely be on Golden State to respond at home where they haven’t lost in this postseason. However, the Mavs did build a sizable halftime lead here in Game 2 (72-58) before imploding down the stretch. 

After getting off to a horrible start in Game 1, the Mavs have played the Warriors tough in this series. Their season is still on the line and while no team has ever fought back from a 3-0 series deficit, we know that we’ll be getting Dallas’ best effort from here on out. 

Golden State is surprisingly only 4-7 straight up following a double digit loss this year. 

Dallas had its biggest edge from long range in Game 4. While I think it’s unlikely they can be +30 again, they have made more threes than the Warriors in all four games. The pointspread has yet to come into play in any Conference Finals game so far. It may very well here. 

This Eastern Conference Finals between Boston and Miami has seen the two teams exchange blowout victories. The series is 2-2 heading back to Miami after the Celtics won easily in Game 4, 102-82 as seven-point favorites.

The Celtics have yet to lose back to back games in these playoffs. Going back to their second round series vs. Milwaukee, there’s also been just one instance of them winning back to back games. But if you think this is leading to an endorsement of the Heat for Game 5, guess again.

Boston was not favored in Games 1 and 2 here in Miami. They are slight favorites tonight. Game 1 they were missing Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Smart (questionable for tonight) was out again in Game 4, but that hardly mattered as Derrick White started in his place, scored the game’s first seven points and finished with 13-8-8.

Only Tyler Herro sat for the Heat in the last game. He and Kyle Lowry are listed as questionable tonight. After the Heat scored just 82 points in Game 4, which included just 18 from the starting five, I understand why many would feel there’s a Miami bounce back forthcoming. But I just happen to think Boston is better. 

The Celtics’ two wins in the series have been by a combined 45 points. The Heat’s two wins have been by a combined 17 points. Boston has been up at the half in three of the games. Jimmy Butler is clearly not himself with just 14 points the last two games. Lay the points. 

The loss of Binnington seems to have been a very big blow to the Blues, and their anger against Kadre certainly backfired. The Blues replacement goaltender, Husso, while excellent in the regular season, has not been able to show the same stuff in the play-offs. Kadre and the Avalanche embarrassed the Blues at home in game 4 and the Avalanche have been dominant on home ice this season. Should we count the Blues out today? The odds-makers would certainly suggest so. Call me contrarian, but I think that the Blues, with their backs to the wall, will make a game of it today. They bounced back in Game 2 after being badly outplayed in the opening game. With the very high odds available on the Av’s, the puck line looks very respectable. Look for a  bounce-back from Husso and St Louis.  Take the Blues on the puck line to keep this one close.  St Louis + 1 1/2...

Someone lit a fire under the Red Sox hitters, and boy, have they responded, in particular Devers, JD Martinez and Story. They are the hottest hitting team in baseball with a .285 BA and a huge .854 team OPS. The White Sox are better than usual lately, but pale in comparison. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox. He has been generally great, but has had a couple of off days. His last start was very good but in the previous one, he gave up 6 runs over 4 innings to the Yankees. He has a phenomenal strikeout total of 67 to date. There are concerns with Cease; he has given up more hits and walks than usual lately and the Red Sox have had very good success in the past against him.

It took until his second start in May to get going, but Boston’s starter Pivetta has been sensational since, giving up just 2 ER in a whopping 22 innings over 3 starts. His last start was a complete game effort, allowing just 1 run. The Sox have won 8 of 10, and are even getting solid relief pitching at the moment.

The White Sox are favored on Tuesday, but I am on the Red variety for Tuesday. Boston is a very good hitting team on an absolute tear at the moment. Cease has been up and down lately. I think Boston has a real shot at winning, but if nothing else, I expect them to keep this one close.   Take Boston on the run line at +1 1/2.    

For the second series in a row, the Mavs return home for Game 3 down two games to none. We all recall what happened against Phoenix in the last round. Now I’m not saying the Mavs pull that off again, but I do like them here in Game 3. 

Certainly, Dallas feels that this Western Conference Final should be all squared away at one game apiece. They led Game 2 for most of the first three quarters and were up 14 at half. Luka Doncic had 42 points. But it was not to be as Golden State raced past them in the fourth.

The Mavs have won five straight at home in these playoffs since losing Game 1 of the Utah series (without Doncic). Something I have mentioned before is that they are #1 in the league in fewest points allowed at home (101.0 per game). I can assure you that the Warriors will not be shooting 56% again as they did in each of the first two games.

Though Coach Jason Kidd quipped that his team “died by the three” in Game 2, I expect the Mavs will continue to fire from behind the arc in this game. They’ve attempted 93 threes in the series. They made 21 in Game 2. Golden State shot a higher percentage, but will not repeat going 50% from deep as they did in Game 2. 

Golden State has failed to cover each of its last four road games. Dallas is 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Lay the points

I like Dallas to rebound here from its embarrassing Game 1 defeat. The Mavericks scored only 18 points in the first quarter and when you do that against a team like the Warriors, it’s pretty much “all over but the shouting.” The Mavs ended up shooting just 36% for the game, including 23% from three. 

You’ve got to expect better shooting here tonight from the road underdog. Over the previous three seasons, Dallas is 29-9 ATS after a game in which it was held under 100 points. They are 19-4 ATS in that situation this season. Also, the team is 12-4 ATS in 2021-22 when coming off a double digit defeat.

I can’t fathom Golden State shooting 56.1 percent again like they did in Game 1. Dallas has been an excellent defensive team all season long and held Phoenix under 100 points three times in that series. 

Dallas should shoot much better from long-range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. Doncic, Brunson, Bertans and Bullock went a combined 6 of 29 from behind the arc. 

Even with Games 3 and 4 taking place at home, the Mavericks obviously want to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-2 hole. They fought their way out of it against Phoenix, but it would be much tougher to do that against Golden State. Take the points in Game 2. 

It took them 20 minutes to get going, but from the second period on, the Avalanche were very much like their namesake, unstoppable. Only an incredible 51 save performance from Binnington kept the Blues from embarrassment. Will we see a repeat from Binnington? That kind of outing must be exhausting; I can’t see any goalie keeping the score down if Colorado continues such dominant play.

I expected more of the Blues, but good teams have put up some high totals against them this season. We will see how they perform at home.

In games that mattered coming down the stretch the Avalanche were the complete package, getting solid defense and goal-tending as well as their scintillating offense. Colorado is a huge favorite, and rightly so today. Look for the Avs to solve Binnington. Take them to win on the puck line at -1 ½.

analysis soon

I think most are underestimating the Mavericks coming into the Western Conference Finals. This is a team that has already eliminated Utah and Phoenix, two very good teams, and just delivered an emphatic 123-90 win on Sunday in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. So no one should be underestimating them.

Luka Doncic averaged 32.6 points per game against Phoenix. In four regular season matchups vs. the Warriors, he averaged 31.5. That was the fourth most points scored against Golden State in a single season since Steve Kerr became head coach. 

Gary Payton II would have been the primary defender on Doncic, but he’s out with an injury. So I think Golden State is going to give up more points than what you might think for Game 1. Dallas did have the one bad offensive game vs. the Suns where they scored only 80 points. But since then, they scored 113 and 123. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread in the 2021-22 season following a game where they allowed 90 or fewer points. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS off their previous five SU wins and have only covered two of their last eight games overall.

In case you hadn’t figured it out by now, I’m taking the points in Game 1. Doncic is playing at an elite level and the Mavericks have the higher net efficiency rating through two rounds of playoff action. 

The Giants seem to have the Rockies’ number both at home and away this season, sweeping the Rockies in San Francisco, and now up 2-0 in Denver. Logan Webb (5-1, 3.48 ERA) starts for the Giants on Wednesday. His last start was very good but he seems to generally give up a few more runs than expected this year. At 5-1, he has been a pitcher who gets great run support, a quality not to be underrated. He faces Freeland, the Rockies’ well paid lefty. Freeland (1-4, 4.91 ERA) has been a bit of a loose cannon. His first two and last starts were very poor, with some very good ones mixed in. He will have to be very good today and throw late into the game if the Rockies have any plans on winning . The Rockies’ bullpen has really struggled, giving up lots of the wrong stuff, used heavily, and with an ERA of over 7.00 in their last 5 games.

The Rockies can hit, but not quite as well as SF at the moment, and the Giants’ bullpen is a definite step up from Colorado’s. The Rockies were able to get to Cobb yesterday but the Giants’ bullpen stood fast. Look for a good start from Webb, and who knows what from Freeland, with the Giants running away in the late innings. Take San Francisco on the run line at -1 ½.

The Blues won their last three games vs. the Wild in impressive fashion, getting great goal tending from a resurgent Binnington, and scoring 5 goals a game. The Blues have a very balanced and impressive attack and are tough to play against in a play-off situation.

The Av’s swept the Predators, but were playing against a second string goalie. No one doubts Colorado’s offense, but the Blues will not be such an easy opponent. The Avalanche haven’t played in well over a week, so when does rested become rusty? The Blues have had enough time to restore, but a better connection to game action.

I think today’s game may be closer than expected. An Av’s win would not surprise me, but don’t count a motivated and experienced Blues team out entirely. The Blues were a fine road team in the regular season and in the playoffs this year. Take the Blues on the puck line at +1 ½.

Nationals starter Corbin finally connected with a good start, 5 innings of shut-out ball, but April was a very cruel month for him. He gave up 20 runs over 19 innings, so it will take another good start or two to believe his season has turned around. His mound opponent, the immortal Verlander has been as always, one- hitting the Twins over 8 innings in his last start, and giving up just 3 runs in his last 3 starts.

The Astros lost to the Nationals on Saturday which makes them 9-1 in their last 10 games. Other than Saturday’s game they have limited opposing teams to 3 runs or less, with a trio of shut-outs thrown in. Outside of last night, relievers have been particularly sharp for the Astros. They are an astounding 12-2 on the road and 10-2 vs left handed starters.

Not so the Nationals. Relievers have an ERA of over 4.2, and while the offense has been mostly solid, they’ve won just 3 of 10 games. They are a dismal 4-14 at home, and 7-15 vs right handers.

Look for the Astros to bounce back today. Take Houston on the run line at – 1 ½.

The Yankees have crushed the White Sox in the first two games of their series, and dominated most everyone else they have faced lately. Today’s starter Montgomery has pitched well enough for the Yankees, giving up 2 runs over 5 or 6 innings in his last three starts. He will be backed by NY’s cracking good bullpen. Two runs is pocket change for a Yankees’ squad that has scored 25 runs in the last two games.

The White Sox run out Dallas Keuchel today. Two of his last three starts have been adequate, but opposing batters have huge averages against him this year. Stanton and Donaldson in particular have owned Keuchel over the years. The Yankees have also had great success against Chicago’s bullpen.

Pure and simple, the White Sox lack the horses to run with the New York’s offense, and are at a significant disadvantage in pitching expectations today. Take the Yankees -1 ½ today.

Memphis sure fooled me in Game 5, beating Golden State by 39 points despite not having Ja Morant. The Grizzlies have won 21 of their 27 games without Morant in 2021-22 and have basically led throughout the last two games. So I’m pretty confident that the underdog keeps this one close. 

Two of Golden State’s three victories in this series have been by a combined four points. As I just said, last time they were here at home, they were behind most of the way only to get bailed out by a Steph Curry fourth quarter surge. (The Warriors ended up winning by three).

Memphis has led for nearly 46 of the 48 minutes in the two games since Morant got hurt. All season long, the Grizzlies have demonstrated tremendous depth. Seven players were in double figures in the last three. Three scored exactly 21 points. 

Steve Kerr is still not coaching for the Warriors because of COVID-19. It seems to have had an effect. Also, the Warriors have scored 101 points or less in three of the last four games.

The Grizzlies are 23-15 ATS as underdogs this season, winning 20 of those games outright. They are also 19-5 ATS vs. the Pacific Division, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Warriors. More importantly, they are 4-0 ATS this postseason when behind in the series. Memphis has covered four of the five games so far while Golden State is just 1-6 ATS its last seven overall.

Two very fine starters face off in Miami on Friday evening. Lopez and Burns have done it all this season, with 6 starts each, low ERAs, and good length. Burns is a strikeout machine, while Lopez has given up just 4 runs. Three of them were in one slightly off-color start, but in his last outing, he threw 8 innings of shut-out ball.

Miami’s bullpen has been better than average, but the Brewers’ pen has given up some big numbers lately. The Brewers, with a good start this year, have now lost 4 of 5, and 2 of 3 of those losses were against the lowly Reds. They have had no success in previous meetings vs Lopez. Miami has won just 2 of 10 games, but 7 of those 8 losses were by just 1 run.

I like Lopez’s and Miami’s chances today, but considering their lack of success in past meetings (1-6) vs the Brewers, will hedge my bet. Take Miami + 1 ½.

Philadelphia must win here to stay alive. The good thing is they are at home where they’ve already beaten the Heat twice, by 20 and 8 points. It’s difficult to imagine the 76ers’ shooting not improving from the last time out. Game 5 marked the fourth time in these playoffs that the 76ers were held below 100. They averaged 117 points the next time out, the previous three instances.

Similarly, look for Miami’s shooting to decline in Game 5. They were 7 of 30, then 7 of 35 from three-point land in the previous two games here in Philly. 

No one on the Sixers scored more than 17 points in Game 5. Think that might change here? With Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, I’m expecting at least two Sixers players to top 20 tonight.

Other than Jimmy Butler, only Bam Adebayo in Game 4 has turned in a 20+ point effort for the Heat over the last three games. 

Philadelphia is 17-5 straight up, 14-8 against the spread this season following a sub-100 point game. The previous time they got held below 90 (Game 5 vs Toronto), they responded by scoring 132 in the next game. Lay the points here.

I like the Warriors to close out the Grizzlies Wednesday night and also to cover the spread. Memphis won’t have Ja Morant, which is a big loss even if the team is 20-6 (straight up) this season without its star point guard and also turned in an admirable effort in Game 4 Monday night.

But you can’t expect Golden State to go 9 of 35 on three-point tries again like they did in the last game. The Warriors also had a bad night from three in Game 2 (7 of 38). The next game they bounced back to make 17 of 32 from beyond the arc and shot 63.1% overall. 

Memphis shot a similar three-point percentage in Game 4 (25.7%). The difference is that without Morant, their chances of improving aren’t as great. Let us not forget that even when Morant was healthy, the Grizzlies needed three huge comebacks in the first round to eliminate Minnesota. 

The expectation is that Steve Kerr will again not coach for the Warriors as he remains in health and safety protocol. But that doesn’t really concern me. Golden State is 12-0 SU all-time in the playoffs when associate Mike Brown fills in as the head coach. 

Golden State should smell “blood in the water” here and be looking for the kill. It is in their best interest to end this series tonight with the chance Phoenix could move to the Western Conference Finals with a win tomorrow. The Warriors winning here and that Phoenix-Dallas series going seven games would be the dream scenario. Lay the points tonight. 

The Mets meet the home underdog Nationals in the 2nd game of the series. Mets won the first game, and have played well this season. They are top 5 in League batting and pitching, and are a very good road team. Megill starts for NY. At 4-1, with an ERA of 2.43, he has 3 shutout starts, including one against the Nationals. The verdict on the supporting act, the bullpen, is “pretty good”. They have a 3.60 ERA in their last five games.

Th Nationals can hit, but it is their pitching, both starting and relief, that lets them down. Aaron Sanchez (ERA 8.56) will start on Wednesday. It has been a poor season for Sanchez, and he has passed that statistic of ineffectiveness of a run per inning. I don’t expect sudden success from Sanchez or the Phillies bullpen for that matter.

The Nationals have been poor at home, and especially as a home underdog (1-6!). They are just 6-13 vs right handed starters. Look for the offensively effective Mets to run up the score on Sanchez and Washington’s pen. Take the Mets – 1 ½.

When Dallas headed home to face Phoenix for Game 3, they had lost to the Suns 11 straight times and were facing an 0-2 series deficit. Now the series is all tied up after a couple of impressive wins at home. The Suns are the team that is reeling entering Game 5 tonight.

We’re back in Phoenix, but I see the Mavericks playing a lot better Tuesday night than they did in either Games 1 or 2. Though they did end up losing by 20, the Mavs were ahead at halftime in Game 2. And though they were down the whole way in Game 1, they only ended up losing by seven with a chance to “steal the cover” late (they did not). 

Remember something I’ve previously written. The Suns posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced out of the first round. That was against the 8th seeded Pelicans.

Dallas was +33 from behind the three-point line in Game 4. We probably shouldn’t count on that transpiring again. But they’ve made more threes than Phoenix in the series and in every game but one (both teams made 13 in Game 3). 

I happen to think the teams are a lot closer than these odds would seem to suggest. Dallas is definitely the better defensive team in this Western Conference semifinal. Grab those points.

The Av’s have been a force to be reckoned with in round one, and can close it out tonight. The Predators, still without Saros, got one good game out of Ingram, but it was back to status quo in Game three. The Avalanche are just too much to for Nashville to handle at the moment. Kuemper could be back in net but Francouz closed out Game 3 well, and is available if needed. The Avs are destined for greater things this season, and with their very fine offense rolling as it is, should win easily. Take Colorado  to win - 1 1/2..

This series feels a lot different now that Joel Embiid is back for Philadelphia. The 76ers rolled to a 99-79 win in Game 3 as the home team has yet to lose in this best of seven affair. While we can’t count on Miami shooting as poorly here as they did in Game 3, I still like the Sixers to win and cover Game 4. 

Still at +285 to win the series, the Sixers seem a bit undervalued to me. Embiid had only 18 points in Game 3, well under his season average, and eight of those came from the FT line. It was a bit of a surprise return Friday night. I’m expecting more from Embiid tonight.

James Harden also has yet to “go off” in this series, even with Embiid not playing either of the first two games. Harden has scored only 53 points in the series, on 15 of 39 shooting. He’s 4 of 19 from behind the arc. If we get anything approaching “typical” performances from Harden and Embiid here, then we should be in VERY good shape.

Also, the Sixers’ other three starters (Harris, Maxey, Green) have all shown an ability to contribute in meaningful fashion. 

For Miami, Jimmy Butler scored 33 points in Game 3, but only one other teammate (Tyler Herro) joined him in double figures and it took a rather inefficient effort. Kyle Lowry didn’t score (attempted only four shots) in his first game back from a hamstring injury and Bam Adebayo was a non-factor, going just 2 of 9 from the floor. I really like the Sixers here.

The Angel face the Nationals in LA today. The Angels are a good home team, strong vs. right handed pitching and hitting for a ton of power, if not average. Sandoval, the Angels starter, ran into a bit of trouble after giving up 0 runs in his first three starts. His strikeouts dropped and he allowed 3 runs.

The Nationals are 7-8 on the road, and 4-6 vs left-handers. They are hitting well for average, and their offense has stepped it up lately. Fedde, (4.68 ERA), the starter for the Nationals, appeared to finally find his form giving up just 1 run over 7 innings. The Angels have a decided edge in relief, with a sharp 2.15 ERA last five games. The Nat’s pen has struggled, but has shown better lately.

This game really hinges on which starter has his stuff. I am wagering on Fedde continuing to improve, with Sandoval not quite as good as he was to begin the season. n I think the Nationals will keep it close.  Take the Nationals on the run line +1 1/2

After losing Game 1 on their home floor, 101-89, the Celtics bounced back to win Game 2 109-86 and are now back to being favored to win this best of seven series, which now moves to Milwaukee. Despite the change in home court advantage, I like Boston to still walk away with the ATS win in Game 3. 

The Celtics are 10-1 ATS vs. the Bucks the last three seasons. With Khris Middleton still out for Milwaukee, it feels like laying points would be a bad idea here. Sure, the Bucks will shoot better than they did in the last game, but will improved shooting be enough?

Overall shooting was pretty even in Game 2, but it was from three where the Celtics had a huge edge. They were 20 of 43 while Milwaukee was 3 of 18. Boston was up 25 points at halftime. 

Boston had the best regular season point differential in the Eastern Conference and is considered the favorite to make the NBA Finals. So it makes sense to bet them here. I’m just not sure Milwaukee can maintain its current defensive rating in the playoffs.

Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is expected back for Game 3. His Celtics are now 33-8 SU their last 41 games. They’ve covered five in a row as underdogs and are the better team. 

Both home teams on Friday are down 0-2 in their respective series. You would have to go all the way back to 2019 to find the last time the Mavericks beat the Suns head to head. The losing streak is now 11 games. I think tonight is the night they snap it. 

This projection may seem a bit “brave,” but Dallas is 32-12 straight up at home this year. Looking at the home vs. road splits for both them and the Suns, one thing really stands out. The Mavs are only allowing 101.5 points per game at home, well down from the 108.0 points per game they give up on the road.

So you should expect Phoenix to score a lot fewer points here than they did in either Games 1 (121) and 2 (129). The Suns made 64.5% of their shots in Game 2 and were 13 of 25 from three. That’s just not sustainable, especially when now going out on the road and facing what has been one of the better defensive teams in the league.

Dallas is 5-0 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 125 or more points. So recent history points to them putting the clamps down and bouncing back here. 

I think the other key is that Dallas needs someone to step up besides Luka Doncic. At home, that should happen. In each of the first two games, Doncic has scored more than the other four starters combined. Look for a more balanced effort from the Mavs tonight as they get back into the win column.

Joel Embiid has been downgraded to OUT for Game 3 and that’s not the news Philadelphia wanted to hear as the Sixers are already down 2-0 in this series with Miami. But the Heat have a number of “banged up” players themselves and considering the sense of desperation for the Sixers (who are now back home), I like them to cover in this spot.

The market reacted swiftly to the Embiid news with Miami now favored by a few points on the road. But don’t forget, up two games to none in the first round, they lost Game 3 at Atlanta. Even without Embiid, the 76ers are a stronger team than the Hawks. They have James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris.

Maxey and Harris each turned in a breakout game in Miami. But Harden was disappointing in the two games, scoring only 36 points and shooting 11 of 28 from the field. I expect him to play a lot better tonight.

As a team, look for Philly to shoot much better from three-point land than they did in either of the first two games. They are 14 of 64 from behind the arc in the series. That’s well below their season average of 36.4% for the year.

This will be the 76ers first time playing at home in 12 days and only their second game here since April 18th. I expect the place will be “rocking.” Take the home underdog.

The Preds are in a pickle early.  They were rolled over by the Avalanche, and are without starting goalie Saros.  They will need to play tighter and tougher today, The Av's are clipping along a top speed and are a tough opponent anywhere, but are nearly unbeatable at home.  Nashville will need to find some  quality goaltending and Rittich was not the answer in Game one.  It likely won't be as easy, but I expect another fine performance from the Av's today.  Colorado - 1 1/2.

The Mavs have now lost nine straight times to the Suns following a rather dismal performance in Game 1 where they lost 121-114 as 5.5-point underdogs. While the ATS result came down the wire, that final score really isn’t indicative of how the game actually went. Dallas was down double digits most of the way.

Luka Doncic did his part for the Mavericks in Game 1, turning in a 45-12-8 game. But the rest of the starters combined for just 39 points. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie finished well below their respective scoring averages in Game 1. I’m expecting both to play better tonight.

For Phoenix, Devin Booker still seems hobbled by a hamstring injury. He’s shot just 12 of 32 in the two games since returning. 

Defensively, the Mavs have been one of the top teams in the NBA this year. They allow only 104.5 points per game and kept Utah, one of the league’s most efficient offenses, to only 99 points per game.

Doncic has only played two of the four games against Phoenix this year. I think the Mavs’ three-point shooting keeps them in this game and I would not rule out an upset here. Grab those points.

Boston should bounce back in Game 2. They shot 10 of 34 (just 29.4 percent!) from inside the arc in Game 1. That was their lowest shooting percentage on two-point attempts all season. There have been only seven times all year that the Celtics shot below 45 percent from two-point range. 

Following those poor shooting nights, the team has consistently been able to rediscover its shooting touch, making an average of 55 percent from inside the arc the next game. 

I think it’s a given that Boston improves offensively for Game 2. Defensively, they were #1 in points allowed during the regular season. They held Milwaukee to 101 points on 41.1% shooting in Game 1 and I think they are capable of doing the same again tonight.

Just to reiterate what I’ve said so far, the Celtics are 10-5 against the spread this season after being held under 100 points. They are 11-5 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite.

Remember that Milwaukee is missing its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. His production is more difficult to replace on the road. Not sure the Bucks can count on another 25-point performance from Jrue Holiday tonight. They are 1-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less the previous game. Lay the points in Game 2.

Phoenix, who has the league’s best record, is a big favorite to win this series with Dallas. But it was by no means a dominant first round effort by the Suns. They needed six games to eliminate the 8-seed New Orleans and posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced.

Some of the subpar performance could be pinned on leading scorer Devin Booker missing most of the series. Booker played in only three games and only once did he log more than 32 minutes. The Suns did win both games Booker finished. 

But what about Dallas eliminating Utah, despite not having Luka Doncic the first three games? That was more impressive than the Suns without Booker. The Mavericks have covered five in a row and the only game they lost was decided by one point.

The Mavs last win over the Suns came in November of 2019. They’ve lost nine in a row to Phoenix since. But recall Milwaukee’s history vs. Boston was not good. Until yesterday when I backed the Bucks. Two of the three games Dallas lost to Phoenix this season, Doncic was out. 

These teams are more even than you’re being led to believe. Not only does Dallas have Doncic, they have Jalen Brunson, who averaged 27.8 points per game in the first round. Defensively, the Mavs are one of the top teams. They held Utah to 99 points per game. For the year, they are holding opponents to 104.3 points per game.

Needing all those late game heroics to overcome Minnesota in the first round, Memphis almost seems like it’s being “written off” for Game 1 against Golden State. But the Grizzlies are at home Sunday where they are 8-2 straight up and against the spread as underdogs this season. I say grab the points in Game 1 as the Warriors look like a VERY “public” side. 

Memphis won three of the four regular season games against Golden State and handed the Warriors their worst loss of the season. That comes with an asterisk though as the Warriors’ 28-point loss here in Memphis came without the services of Curry, Thompson and Green. 

But that doesn’t mean the Grizzlies won’t win again here. Golden State is only 23-20 on the road where it gives up about six more points per game than they do at home. Also the Warriors might be rusty. They haven’t played since Wednesday.

Five Grizzlies averaged double figures in round one and it was not Ja Morant leading the way. It was Desmond Bane, who averaged 23.5 points and made 27 threes. Morant wasn’t far behind with a 21.5 PPG average vs. Minnesota.

Memphis is 32-12 at home, winning by almost nine points per game. They are a great value play in Game 1. Grab those points.

The Pirates knocked off the Padres on Saturday, winning in extra innings, but I don’t favor their chances for two in a row. Musgrove starts for the Padres, and he has been a paragon of consistency this season, giving up just 6 ER in 25 innings with 2 walks and a strikeout an inning on average.

He faces Mitch Keller (6.62 ERA) who has had just 1 quality start in 4 attempts. Opposing batters are hitting close to .300, and he has 7 walks to date. The Pirates’ bullpen has not been much support to date, with a collective ERA of well over 4.00. San Diego’s relievers are just middle of the pack but are still considerably better than the Pirates on average, if not yesterday.

The teams are roughly equal in batting avg. but the Padres are hitting for significantly more power, and have been very good (8-4) against right-handers. San Diego has been dominant on the road, especially as a road favorite (6-1!).

The Padres are a large favorite on Sunday. Take them on the Run line. San Diego – 1 1/2

The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs.

The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. 

Shockingly, the Bucks are 0-9 ATS the last nine games vs. the Celtics. But today’s game marks just the second time that the Celtics will have been favored to beat the Bucks.

Khris Middleton is a big loss for the Bucks (he’s their second leading scorer), but consider the way Milwaukee played defense in the first round. They posted the best defensive efficiency rating of any team. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo can still carry this team to victory. For Boston, Jaylen Brown is dealing with an injured hamstring. This is a far more even matchup than what the series odds say. Grab the points in Game 1. 

It is rookie vs. ace in the Nationals/Giants pitching match-up on Saturday. The Nats’ starter Joan Adon (6.98 ERA) has just one good start in four attempts. He has already lost to the Giants in a five run 4 inning outing. I don’t like his chances against Logan Webb and the Giants, even though Webb has not been at his very bet in his last two efforts. He is still sporting a 2.96 ERA. In all likelihood, Webb will bounce back, but with the best bullpen in the league, the Giants can pull a starter at any time comfortably.

The Nationals’ pen is not up to the same standard, nor is the Giants' offense. The Nationals are just 6-15 to date and a rough 3-11 against right-handed pitching. You don’t often meet a better righty than Webb. The Giants are solid at home, very good vs right-handers and a considerable favorite on Saturday. Take the Giants on the run line: they are good for the extra runs. SF – 1 ½.

The Yankees, winners of 6 straight are on fire.  Their bats have finally woken up, and that bullpen is still lights out.  Nestor Cortez starts on Friday.  He is arguably the Yank's best pitcher at the moment, with electric stuff (2 ER in 15 innings, 25 strikouts).

KC will do well not to be overwhelmed, even at home.  Bubic starts, and only one of his first three appearances has been passible.  He has given up more than a run an inning and has been wild as well, with more walks than strikeouts.  The Royals have neither the firepower nor the relievers to a. outscore the Yankees or b. rescue Bubic.  Take the Yankees on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Suns were expected to roll in this series, but now are hoping just to avoid a Game 7. Leading scorer Devin Booker hasn’t played since Game 2. Phoenix has won two of the three games without him and a Game 6 return by Booker is now considered a possibility. But I like the Pelicans at home in this one. 

The old trusty zig-zag theory has played out according to script in this series. Neither team has been able to cover two in a row. If that pattern holds, then New Orleans will likely force a Game 7 (they are short underdogs). 

The last game in New Orleans was won by the Pelicans 118-103. The Pels were then betrayed by three-point shooting in Game 5, making only 5 of 25 attempts. They’ll be far better than that in tonight’s game. CJ McCollum was 1 for 8 from distance in Game 5 and 3 for 17 the last two games. I expect him to start making shots at a higher percentage here.

The Suns have yet to score more than 114 points in any game during the series. New Orleans is averaging 111.5 at home for the season. If they hit their average, we’re in good shape tonight.

Don’t think Mikal Bridges will score 31 again like he did in Game 5. (That was a career playoff high). Booker or no Booker, I don’t like the Suns’ chances here. Take the points.

The Guardians face the home favorite Angels today. Cal Quantrill starts for Cleveland, and was a go-to starter for me last year. He hasn’t pitched poorly this year, but hasn’t quite found the same form as in 2021. I still have hopes for him. He has been delivering solid length. He faces young and promising Angels lefty Reid Detmers, who is sporting a poor 6.57 ERA to date. He has yet to show what is expected of him.

The Guardians have the better bullpen at the moment, and while they haven’t the same home run numbers as the Angels, they are hitting for average and power.

Take the Guardians to steal or come close today. Cleveland +1 ½.

Down two games in the series, the Tigers send out lefty Tariq Skubal, up against the Twins’ Bailey Ober. The two young pitchers have similar records to date; both with a poor first start, followed by a pair of fine appearances. Skubal has two shut-out starts; Ober has just given up 1 run in his last two appearances. Once the starters are out, there is quite a difference in relief pitching. Detroit’s pen has been surprisingly good, sporting a very skimpy 2.22 ERA. The Twins’ bullpen ERA in fully two runs worse.

Looking at the offenses, the Twins are hitting for more power, while the Tigers have the advantage in batting average. The Tigers’ home run numbers are very low. The Twins have won 7 straight, including the pair against Detroit. They have been good at home but also have struggled against left-handed pitching. I like Skubal’s and the Tigers’ chances on Thursday, if not to win then at least to keep it close. Take the Tigers + 1 ½.

The Dodgers have great starting pitching to start the season, but none looks much better than Tuesday’s starter Gonsolin. He has given up just 1 run in three starts, pitching to increasing length each outing. He finished 6 innings in his last start.

Diamondbacks starter Davies has had mixed results so far, sandwiching two good efforts around a poor 4 inning, 4 run result. The problems for the Diamondbacks will likely begin when the starter comes out. Their bullpen is third worst in the league with a BP ERA more than 2 runs worse than the Dodgers’. The Diamondbacks are no match for the Dodgers on offense either, with a team batting average of just .189 to date. The Dodgers are strong in average and power, and are also holding the opposing teams to a slim .191 batting average.

LA is a solid favorite, but should be good for the extra runs. Take the Dodgers at -1 ½..

After completely destroying the Hawks in Game 4, 110-86, the Heat have a chance to close out this series at home. All three of Miami’s wins in this series have been by double digits while Atlanta’s lone triumph was by a single point after a Trae Young game winner. The Heat probably should have swept this series. Look for them to close things out tonight.

Atlanta just isn’t any good defensively. They are allowing 112.5 points per game in the series, which I guess is not all that surprising as they allowed 112.4 in the regular season and came into the playoffs with the worst defensive efficiency rating of all remaining teams. 

It hasn’t helped that Young has struggled mightily. He’s averaging just 16.5 points per game while shooting 32.1 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from three. He was held to just nine points on 3 of 11 shooting in Game 4 and he attempted just one free throw as 10 of his 11 shots were launched from behind the arc.

Young and the Hawks have now been held under 100 points in two of the four games. Miami clearly knows what it’s doing defensively and Atlanta has no game plan to solve it.

The Hawks are 0-42 ATS in their straight up losses this season, including 0-23 as underdogs! They are 6-20 ATS as road underdogs. Series over.

Could the Nets really be swept right out the first round? Bet on it! Boston, who many believed could come out of the East if they won this series, is quickly cementing itself as the team to beat in this conference. They are clearly the better team in this series and I will take the points in Game 4.

Though both Philadelphia and Golden State failed to sweep their series, teams holding a 3-0 series lead are still on a 29-15 straight run in Game 4’s. 

There is simply no homecourt advantage for Brooklyn this year as they’ve gone 9-33 ATS at the Barclays Center. While the knee-jerk reaction to that record is to blame the absence of Kyrie Irving for most of those games, the bottom line is the Nets are 1-7 ATS their last eight games here, including the 109-103 loss in Game 3. 

Kevin Durant is struggling mightily in this series. He’s averaging only 22 points per game on 36.5% shooting. That scoring average would be the lowest in any postseason series in Durant’s entire career. I can’t say that I’m that surprised as Boston is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA. They are even stronger with Robert Williams back. Al Horford is having himself an excellent series. Jayson Tatum is averaging 29.7 points and Jaylen Brown is averaging 22.7 while shooting better than 50 percent.

Boston is 14-8 ATS in the underdog role this season. Brooklyn is 17-38 ATS as a favorite. I expect the Celtics to end this series Monday night. 

Today’s starters appear to be going in opposite directions. Brubaker is still working down his ERA from his first start, but has improved in runs allowed and length in each of the next two. He is off a couple of mostly lost years, but the Pirates have high expectations of him now that he is healthy. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 2 runs, with 6 strikeouts in his third start.

Cubs’ lefty Steele started well, with 5 innings of shout-out ball, but has been progressively worse in the following two starts. He gave up 4 runs on 2+ innings last time out.

No one likes to lose 21-0, so the Pirates’ response ought to be strong. They are a significant underdog on Sunday, but there are things to like about their chances. Their starter is trending in the right direction, they’ve been good versus left handed pitching, and they have played better on the road this spring. The Cubs are tops in offense right now, but scoring 21 runs in a game will pad the figures. They have been poor vs lefthanded pitching and at home, especially as a home favorite.

Take the Pirates + 1 1/2.

Cardinals long time starter Wainwright has one sub-par start, but the other two were vintage Wainwright. He limited hits and runs in both and struck out 6 per game. He contrasts with Reds rookie Lodolo. He has had mixed results so far in his first season; 12 strikeouts in 2 games, but an inflated ERA and 2 losses as well. Lodolo looks like he has some up-side, but may take a few games to settle in.

The faltering Reds are 2-12, 0-3 at home, and were shut-out by the Cards on Saturday. Of note, they are just 1-7 against right-handed pitching. They haven’t scored more than two runs in eight games, and it is unlikely that they will break out against Wainwright.

The Cards are off to a very good start with solid starting pitching, a bullpen right up at the top of the heap, and better than average offense from a veteran lineup. Here is an opportunity for the offense to take a rookie pitcher down a couple of pegs. Take the Cardinals to win – 1 ½.

The Jazz ought to be embarrassed here as they are down two games to one in this series, despite Luka Doncic having not played a single minute for the Mavericks. Doncic says he’s feeling “no pain” in his calf and thus his status has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4. Either way, I like Utah minus the points in this one.

Perhaps the Jazz got overconfident when it was announced that Doncic would miss Game 3. They were down 17 at halftime and while it turned into a close game in the fourth quarter, Utah still lost by eight points. This despite shooting 56.5% overall from the field and going 31 of 33 from the free throw line!

The big difference in Game 3 was Utah shooting 9 of 28 from three while Dallas was 18 of 42. Making twice as many three as your opponent is a big deal and is a discrepancy that certainly isn’t likely to be repeated here in Game 4. I also can’t see Jalen Brunson continuing his run, whether Doncic returns or not, as Brunson has averaged 36 points the last two games. 

Utah is an outstanding team at home where it has outscored its opponents by 9.4 points per game this year. Only Golden State has beaten its visitors by a wider margin over the course of 2021-22. 

This is a must win game for the Jazz. Whether or not Doncic returns for Dallas, look for the Jazz to cover the spread. 

Even without Devin Booker, I expect the Suns to beat the Pelicans in Game 3. They outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions without Booker when Chris Paul was on the court. Look for Cameron Payne to step it up in Booker’s absence as well. 

In Game 2, New Orleans took full advantage of Booker leaving, springing a 125-114 upset. They shot the lights out, making 17 of their 30 three-point tries and finishing at 54% overall from the field. Even though they are now back at home, don’t look for the Pelicans to match their Game 2 shooting.

It is important to note that Phoenix is 14-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a loss. They are 63-34 in that situation the previous three seasons.

The Suns are simply the better team here, having won 63 games in the regular season. Booker missed 14 regular season games. The team has the second highest defensive efficiency rating on the road and can claim a 13-3 ATS mark when the spread is three points or less, in either direction.

Coming off its best three-point shooting night of the entire season, there’s no way that New Orleans doesn’t regress offensively here. It would be a shock to see the Pelicans win this series, so I’m playing this one accordingly.

The Suns did nothing in Game 1 to dissuade you from thinking they are the best team in the league. They jumped all over the Pelicans, taking a 28-16 lead after the first quarter and never looking back after that. They led by 19 at halftime and ended up winning 110-99, just barely covering the 10-point spread. 

Remember that New Orleans had to win twice just to get here, so they were at a severe disadvantage heading into the first game.

But that disadvantage no longer exists for Game 2 and I’m liking the Pelicans to at least cover the spread in tonight’s matchup. While Phoenix is 24-3 straight up this season as a favorite of eight points or more, they are only 14-13 against the spread.

New Orleans shot especially poorly from two-point range in Game 1. They made only 27 of 72 attempts inside the arc, which is 37.5%, a very low number. Expect them to be more efficient there tonight. Eight missed free throws in Game 1 didn’t help the Pelicans either. 

Despite digging themselves into such an early hole, the Pelicans found themselves down only six in the fourth quarter. I don’t expect them to fall into that kind of an early hole again in Game 2. Take the points here as New Orleans is 5-1 ATS following its previous six SU losses. 

33 to 0! Those numbers are the respective ERAs of Sunday’s starters at this point in the season. A’s starter Adam Oller had his MLB debut fall apart after just 1+ innings. Expect better results the second time around, but he will face a very tough Blue Jays lineup off a loss.

Young Jays starter Manoah was the real thing last year, and appears to be in good form now if his first start is anything to go by. While the other Jays starters have struggled, Manoah and the bullpen have been solid. Manoah went six innings the first time out, so he may not need that much help.

The As have been over-achieving so far this year, and their bats have actually out-paced the Blue Jays to date. Don’t count on this continuing on Sunday. I very much doubt their success against Manoah. Take the Jays –1 1/2

The Yankees are tops in team pitching at the moment. Sundays’ starter Nestor Cortes shut down the potent Blue Jays lineup, giving up just 3 hits in 4+ innings. He is off an eye-opening 2021, and looks to continue this season. Backed by a scorching Yankees bullpen, don’t expect a ton of runs from Orioles’ bats on Sunday.

Zimmerman starts for the Orioles. He missed a chunk of time last year, and had a rough spring, but was strong in his first start. The Orioles relief corps can’t match the Yankees bullpen.

The 2-5 Orioles’ team batting average is sitting at a buck ninety-nine at the moment, good for 27th in the league. While the Yankees’ offense has not quite hit its stride, it is 12th and climbing, and it really is just a matter of time before a break-out. With their division as tight as it is expected to be, the Yanks can’t afford losses against the Orioles, even at this point in the season. Take New York to win – 1 ½.

Minnesota had to win a game in the Play-In Tournament to get here, but I believe they are being undervalued in Game 1 at Memphis. The Timberwolves were very much on par with some of the teams in the West’s top six - like Dallas and Denver - and I expect them to make this a competitive series. 

I am pretty confident that the Timberwolves will get a better game out of Karl-Anthony Towns than what they got Tuesday vs. the Clippers. Towns played one of the worst games of his career, finishing with 11 points on only three made baskets. He also fouled out. But teammates Edwards (30 points) and Russell (29) bailed KAT out. 

These teams met four times in the regular season and each won twice. While the home team won all four games, all but one was close and that was a 138-95 win for the Timberwolves. Thanks to that one blowout, Minnesota outscored Memphis in the four games and shot better - both overall and from three.

The fact Memphis hasn’t played a meaningful game in quite awhile may have an adverse effect here. Ja Morant has played only one game since March 18th. He was 3 for 20 on three-point attempts in the four games vs. Minnesota this year.

The Timberwolves have won and covered all three times this year when they’ve played with three or more days of rest. Memphis did have the second best record in the league and isn’t what I’d call a “public team,” but they are overvalued here. Take the points.

It’s win or go home for the Pelicans and Clippers tonight on ESPN. The winner of this game will be the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser’s season will come to an end.

Home teams have gone 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS so far in the play-in tournament. New Orleans was one of the four winners by beating San Antonio 113-103. They were up by as many as 19 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers were not as good down the stretch in Minnesota and they lost 109-104. But by virtue of finishing in 8th place, they get a second chance and are the home team for this game.

The Pelicans’ top three players all got the job done Wednesday. CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas combined for 81 points on 32 of 56 shooting. I do not think you should look too much into the team’s 37-46 SU record. They are 34-30 since a dreadful 3-16 start and have been a much better team since acquiring McCollum. 

The Pelicans were 3-1 vs. the Clippers this season with the three wins coming by an average of 18.7 points. Also, Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. 

Even with the home court advantage, I’m not sure that LA should be favored here. Certainly not by this many points. Take the underdog here as an outright win would not surprise me. Paul George just doesn’t have enough help. 

The Mets have started well with very good pitching and solid hitting so far. The Diamondback's pitching has been OK but hitting has been at a league low. Bassitt was overpowering for the Mets in his first start, lasting 6 innings of shut-out ball.  D-backs' pitcher Davies allowed 2 runs with 3 walks but didn't get much support.

The Mets' improved offense will help to avoid those low scoring loss as per last year.  All 5 of their wins have been by 2 runs or more.  The Diamondbacks have scored just 15 runs in 6 games, and it won't get any easier against Bassitt.  Take the Mets - 1 1/2.  They should be good for the runs.

It is Wainwright vs Woodruff in what should be a great pitchers’ duel. Should, depending if Woodruff can recover from his very rough first start. Wainwright was business as usual first time around, continuing to defy age.

The Brewers are a significant favorite on Friday, and I can’t see it. St Louis has started well, are at home, has solid pitching and lots of pop. The Brewers have yet to show that they have improved their under-gunned offense. If you want to be cautious, take the Cardinals + 1 ½, but an out and out victory would not surprise me.

After losing 2 straight and still in a playoff race, the Predators will be in “must-win” mode against the Sharks. Nashville is a very good home team, and has beaten the Sharks twice, last time by an 8-0 score.

The Sharks are one of the poorest road teams, and have struggled on offense all year, but their defense is also in tough shape in recent games. They have averaged four or more goals against in their last 7 games, losing all 7. Nashville needs a turn-around on offense after a couple of tough opponents, and this is the perfect opportunity. The Stars poor offense plus the recent flood of goals-against equals a Preds’ big win. Take the Predators – 1 ½.

Young Phillies starter Suarez did everything asked of him last year and looks like a future star, however he had a very limited spring due to visa issues and may be on a short leash this early in the season. The Phillies did some very necessary work on their disaster of a bull pen, but it remains to be seen if it can be enough of a support for Phillies starters. Offensively, the Phillies have power to spare, so they should be competitive in the NL East.

They begin a home series as a favorite against the Mets, the projected leader of their division on Monday. Taijuan Walker starts for New York. Walker was excellent until the All star break, then he fell fast and hard. He too has had a short spring, and may also be limited in innings. While both teams have started well, I still have more faith in the Mets’ bullpen. New York’s rebuilt star-studded offense will give the Phillies a run.  Look for the Mets to keep it close. Take New York +1 1/2.

Monday's A's/Rays matchup pits Blackburn vs. Patino.  Blackburn has been a part-time starter with an unheralded career and a high ERA.  He has not broken any records this spring.  The A's sold the farm and are in fulltime rebuild mode, so any game against the Rays is a bit of a mismatch.  If the A's are going to beat the Rays, it won't likely be with Blackburn starting.

The Rays are off to a good start to no-one's surprise, due in no small part to their bevy of young tough pitchers.  Patino is another promising righty who showed well last year.  In limited action, he has performed well this spring.

The A's are likely still in shock mode with all of the recent changes.  Look for the home-town Rays to wear them out on Monday.  Take the Rays - 1 1/2.

The 76ers won Saturday 133-120 against Indiana. Joel Embiid had 41 points and 20 rebounds, the first time this season that any player had a 40-20 game. Embiid all but wrapped up the scoring title and the Sixers are guaranteed home court advantage for their first round playoff series.

There’s a chance that by the time this game tips off, the Sixers will be locked into the 4-seed. In order to move up into third, they would not only need to win this game, but have Boston lose earlier in the day to Memphis. If Boston wins that game, then the Sixers are locked into 4th. 

With the chance the Sixers have nothing to play for, I’ll take my chances here and grab the points. And even if the 3-seed is still a possibility, I don’t think the Sixers will win by enough to cover the spread.

There’s a chance that a Pistons’ win might hurt their lottery odds, but I still expect a semblance of pride and professionalism to take place here. "We just want to finish with the right spirit and the right togetherness," Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey said. 

Detroit has been on some incredible runs at the betting window. They are 18-3 ATS L21 as an underdog and 11-0 ATS L11 road games. Grab the points.

The Cardinals had a very strong spring and have rolled it right into the new season against the Pirates They’ve outscored the Pirates 15-2 in their first two games. This is a solid veteran-lead team with much expected of them. Steve Matz starts on Sunday. Matz turned things around last year and put up the best season of his career. He could be a fine pick-up for St. Louis. While he hasn’t had the best of springs, I am looking for him to carry last year’s success into 2022.

Bryce Wilson starts for the Pirates. He has struggled in his 6 year career, with a weakness for walks and home runs. He has had high strike-outs this spring, but a very poor ERA.

Any success the Pirates have will likely come later in the season as young talent gains experience. Look for the Cardinals to take advantage of a somewhat unformed team in the early stages of the season. Take St Louis – 1 ½.

The White Sox/Tigers match-up features 2 very fine young pitchers, Kopech for the Sox and Skubal for the Tigers. Skubal pitched a ton of innings for a youngster, and had some very good months in 2021. The Lefty has had a very dominant spring.

Kopech spent most of 2021 in the bullpen will just a handful of starts. We will see how he adapts to this new role, but he definitely has the right stuff. He hasn’t shown well this spring.

Detroit and Chicago split their first two games. The Tigers have managed to score late and keep things close. The White Sox are a favorite on Sunday, But I am on Skubal and the Tigers. Take Detroit +1 ½.

The Wizards and Knicks enter Friday with identical 35-45 straight up records. It’s been a disappointing campaign as both made the playoffs last year. The Knicks have really fallen as they were 4th in the East last season. 

New York has lost three of four, the only win coming against last place Orlando. They blew a 21-point lead to the Nets on Wednesday and ended up losing that game 110-98, not even covering!

Washington also experienced a double digit setback two days ago. They fell 118-103 in Atlanta. Before that though, they’d won three of four and put up 127 or more points in all three wins. 

I think by virtue of being at home, the Wizards have the edge Friday. This is their last home game of the season, so there should be some motivation to win the final game in front of fans. They are 5-1 ATS following a SU loss, going back to the end of March.

The Knicks have covered eight straight times as road underdogs and won their last four road games straight up. But those streaks end tonight. Two of those road wins were Orlando and Detroit. The Knicks (27th in scoring) just won’t be able to match the Wizards (119.8 PPG L5) offensively. 

The Flames have been on a mini-slump lately, but turned it around with an important road win vs. the Kings, and a big game from both Gaudreau and Markstrom.

The Ducks, after their first victory in ages, again showed poorly vs the Oilers last time out. Today won’t be any easier; the Flames are tough to play against at any time, and the Ducks, gutted at the trade deadline, show especially poorly vs top teams.

Look for Calgary to open up on offense, and their second-ranked defense to stifle the Ducks, as they look to outdo the Oilers. The Flames are a very good road team, and this game is a great opportunity to kick start the team after losing 3 of 4. Take Calgary on the puck line -1 ½.

It may seem like San Antonio is getting “a lot” of points in this matchup, but consider this is a team that has been well below .500 most of the year. There is a reason they are just trying to squeak into the play-in tournament. They simply aren’t that good.

It’s true that the Spurs have been winning lately, six of their past seven games. But three wins were against a dreadful Portland team and they also beat last place Houston. Denver is in a different class of those aforementioned foes.

The Nuggets are looking to clinch a spot in the top six of the conference standings, which will allow them to avoid the play-in tournament. They just need to win two of their final three games, all of which are at home 

The Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for tonight. That’s significant. 

Denver has scored 125 or more points in each of its last three contests. This is a team that’s been on fire offensively and without Murray, I don’t see how the Spurs keep up.

The Bulls just can’t beat the top teams in the league. On Saturday, they lost by 16 here at home to the Heat, dropping them to 2-19 for the season against the four best teams in the East and West. The Bulls’ record vs. Milwaukee this year is 0-3, two of those losses coming last month, the last one by 28 points.

Throw in the fact the Bucks are going to come in motivated tonight and I’m all about fading the Bulls in this one. The Bucks have lost two straight. One of the losses saw them give up 153 points. The other, Sunday vs. Dallas, saw them blow an early lead.

That game where Milwaukee allowed 153 points should be disregarded as they rested their starters. The Bucks should be at full strength tonight. Look for Antetokounmpo and Middleton to shoot the ball better than they did vs. Dallas. In that last game, the duo combined to go 15 of 38 from the field and 0 for 7 from three.

The Bulls have the worst point differential of the Eastern Conference’s top six teams. In fact, eight teams in the East have a better point differential. Chicago would be fortunate to avoid the play-in round. 

Milwaukee is all but assured of a top four seed and home court advantage for the first round. But they still have an outside chance at finishing first (2.5 games out) so roll with them Tuesday. The Bucks are 10-1 ATS their last 11 games in Chicago.

For the second half of the Miami game and first half against Villanova, Kansas pretty clearly looked like the best team in the country. They outscored those two opponents 87-44 over that 40 minute span. Now you may consider that to be “cherry picking” the best of the Jayhawks. But at no point in this NCAA Tournament have I ever believed they were in real danger of being eliminated.

North Carolina trailed at the half in the Sweet 16 and Final Four. They also were taken to overtime by Baylor after blowing a 25-point lead. The Tar Heels were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament, so few expected them to get this far. This is the fourth time in six games where the Heels are underdogs. I think their run ends Monday. 

Let’s start with an update on the ankle injury to UNC’s Armando Bacot. Coach Hubert Davis has dubbed him “ready to play,” but having your leading scorer and rebounder injured going into the biggest game of the season is not ideal. Bacot also leads the Tar Heels in blocks and field goal percentage.

I expect David McCormack of Kansas to take advantage of Bacot being less than 100 percent. McCormack went for a season-high 25 against Villanova. Also, don’t forget about Ochai Agbaji, who leads the Jayhawks in scoring. 

Kansas is more experienced on the bench as Bill Self has been here forever and won a National Championship. North Carolina’s Hubert Davis is a rookie coach. The Jayhawks’ top eight scorers have played in a combined 973 games. They were built for this. Lay the points. 

Columbus suffers on defense and in the net, but their offense tended to keep them competitive. This hasn’t been the case lately; they’ve lost 6 in a row and are well under their season’s average 3.2 goals per game. Merzlikins has been a workhorse for the Jackets, but has been overworked and under-protected. Columbus is better at home but they face the Bruins today, who are a tough match-up in any location.

The 8-2 Bruins have stifled most opponents lately, allowing just under 2 goals against in those 8 wins. They’ve also been flashing some offense, scoring 23 goals in their last 4 games. The Bruins are poised to move up from a wild card spot while Columbus is probably just wishing for an end to the bleeding. The Bruins won’t be doing Columbus any favors today. Take Boston on the puck-line – 1 ½.

Talk about a shocking performance. The Clippers beat Milwaukee 153-119 on Friday night. Now both teams elected to rest starters in that game. But that can’t take away from the fact that it was the most points scored EVER in a regular season game in Clippers’ history. 

The Clippers are going to be in the play-in tournament, probably as the 8-seed, which means they’ll only have to win once to make the playoffs. That means the Pelicans, currently 9th, will have to win two games in the play-tournament. It would take New Orleans winning all of its remaining games - and the Clippers losing all of theirs - for the teams to trade spaces.

The Pelicans have won the last five meetings vs. the Clippers, including all three this season. I understand that coupled with the fact NO is still looking to guarantee its spot in the play in tournament makes them seem like the more attractive side here. But I still like the Clippers.

New Orleans is just 16-22 on the road and was lucky to come from behind to beat the Lakers on Friday. They came back from 20+ down to beat the Lakers earlier in the week. 

The Clippers have scored at least 121 points in three straight games and I cannot see them being swept in the season series. Paul George is back. Lay the short number.

The Lakers desperately have to have this game. Five straight losses have them on the outside of the playoff picture. We tried with them Friday in what was a key showdown vs. New Orleans. LeBron James and Anthony Davis returned to the lineup, but it was not enough as the Lakers blew a fourth quarter lead. Time to try again on Sunday.

While the Lakers are just trying to get into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are trying to preserve their status as a top six team in the West and thus avoid the play-in tournament. A 136-130 loss to Minnesota on Friday, the team chasing them, didn’t help. Utah losing last night did help Denver, who can finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th. 

One more win will all but seal a top six spot for Denver. But LA is going to be more desperate here. I know the Lakers seem difficult to back right now - they’ve lost 15 of 19 - but James and Davis are both back now and that makes this a much better team. Getting points at home is a bonus!

This is a massive revenge game for the Lakers as well. They lost to Denver by 37 back on January 15th in what was their worst loss of the season.

Denver is 1-7 ATS this season after it scored 130 or more points in the last game and 4-10 ATS its last 14 games overall.

The Panthers managed a huge come-back OT victory on Saturday, but still allowed 6 goals against, and are facing an early start in back to back games. As good as they have been this year, they are not as dominant on the road, managing just 4 victories in their last 8 road games.

The Sabres have been my go-to team at the moment, winning more than they lose lately and beating some impressive teams in the process. With an extra day’s rest and a home advantage, I think this potentially fine young team has the brass to win or keep it close on Sunday. Take the Sabres on the puck line + 1 ½.

UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and going back to the last couple weeks of the regular season, they are on a 10-1 SU run in their previous 11 games, also going 9-2 against the spread. Duke has covered its last three games after a last second layup by Cal State Fullerton handed the Blue Devils a 1.5 point ATS loss in Round 1. 

Both teams were eliminated by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The only other loss for Duke, over their last 15 games, came to North Carolina, in Coach K’s home finale. The final score of that game was 94-81. That was after Duke won the first meeting, 87-67, in Chapel Hill. To say the Blue Devils will be highly motivated to avenge that last loss UNC is putting it mildly.

Duke was clearly the best team in the ACC this year. North Carolina has had a nice run, but it is worth mentioning that they were an 8-seed coming into the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, they are better than how they were seeded, but being an 8-seed shows they are far from the most consistent team.

The Blue Devils are just the better team here. North Carolina could have lost to either Baylor or UCLA, before they got lucky and faced a 15-seed in the Elite 8. I’ve never sensed Duke being in any danger in their tourney run.

While most teams have struggled to find their shot in the NCAA Tournament, Duke hasn’t. The Blue Devils have made over 50% of their field goal attempts and scored at least 78 points in every game.

Two teams that could end up meeting in the play-in round face off on Saturday in a key Eastern Conference clash. Both Brooklyn and Atlanta are 40-37, part of a three-way tie with Charlotte for eighth place. All three teams want to finish 8th as it would mean they only need to win one game, rather than two, in the play-in round.

Atlanta, despite being the hotter team (four wins in a row) and at home, is the slight underdog tonight. That’s because Brooklyn still carries a lot of weight with the oddsmakers. I thought the Nets should have won at home over Milwaukee on Thursday. (They ended up losing in overtime, on some last second free throws, after blowing a seven-point lead with two minutes left in regulation). 

Brooklyn has been a better team on the road this season. Some of that has to do with Kyrie Irving just recently being cleared to play at home. But recently they went on the road and easily beat Miami. The Nets are 23-16 in road games in 2021-22.

Atlanta has scored 131 or more points in each of its last three games. That’s pretty impressive. But I don’t think they can keep that up and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an off-shooting night from the Hawks here. Trae Young did leave the last game with a groin injury, though he did return. Could there be any ill-effect tonight?

Before the current four-game win streak, Atlanta was just 1-12 ATS when coming off a SU win. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS the last six times it has been a road favorite. The Nets are the better team here.

Villanova is 4-0 ATS in the tournament. Kansas is 2-2 ATS. Villanova has not trailed at halftime in any game. Kansas, the lone 1-seed left, trailed at the half against Miami in the Elite 8, before putting the clamps down in the second half. In three of their four games thus far, the Jayhawks have allowed less than 20 points in one half. Don’t see that happening against Villanova. 

There’s a major edge at the charity stripe for ‘Nova as they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in College Basketball history. Kansas shoots it at just 72% from the FT line.

Jay Wright has fared very well in NCAA Tournament games during his time at Villanova, covering 21 of the last 27. Kansas is 7-20 ATS the previous 27 times they’ve been off a straight-up win by 20 or more points. 

Villanova is 8-3 ATS in neutral site games this season. Kansas is just 7-5 ATS. Villanova is also 27-17-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 10 seasons. They have the best overall ATS record in the country during that time.

The last five head to head meetings between Villanova and Kansas have seen ‘Nova cover all five times. They also won four of the games outright, including a National Semifinal in 2018 by a score of 95-78. These teams seem pretty even to me, and even with the Moore injury, I will be taking the points.

This game carries importance for both teams, but more so for Philadelphia, who has lost three straight games and thus fallen behind the other three teams in the chase for the top spot in the East. Losing to Detroit Friday was inexcusable. 

Charlotte is guaranteed to be in the play-in round, but would like to finish eighth so that they’d only need to win one game rather than two. With eight wins in their last 10 games, the Hornets are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. I still have concerns with a team that is last in the East in scoring defense.

The Hornets give up 116.4 points per game on the road. I think they’ll struggle here to stop Joel Embiid and James Harden. Embiid carried the offense vs. the Pistons, but got no help. Harden shot 4 of 15 and had only 18 points. The bench contributed very little, just eight points in fact.

Harden will shoot better and, at home, the bench will play better this afternoon. Speaking of the start time, these early ones always seem to favor the home team. 

Just not a believer in Charlotte in this spot. Philadelphia will be hungrier.

So there’s been some movement with the line here as the statuses of LeBron James and Anthony Davis remain “questionable.” The Lakers lost again last night (fourth straight time) and are in danger of not even qualifying for the play-in round. 

It’s the Lakers, Pelicans and Spurs that are battling for the last two play-in spots. One will be left out. The Pelicans are two games up on the other two, so they are in good shape. The Lakers need this win more.

This past Sunday these teams played. New Orleans won 116-108. In that game, which LeBron played in, the Lakers were up 23 in the first half. That was in New Orleans. The Pelicans are 15-22 on the road though, so I have my doubts about them here, LeBron or no LeBron.

New Orleans has only been favored in 20 games all season and just six times on the road! 

Hopefully, James and/or Davis plays tonight. Even if they don’t, my money is on LA. 

I like Coastal Carolina to at least cover, and probably win, The Basketball Classic. They get this game at home where they’ve already won twice in the tournament - by 24 and 16 points. Things were a lot closer when the Chanticleers had to travel to face South Alabama on Monday. But they still came out ahead 69-68 in overtime and that is not an easy place to win at (South Alabama had just two home losses previously). 

Fresno State has played all of its games at home for The Basketball Classic and I can’t see them replicating Monday when they waxed Southern Utah by 19 points. That game saw the Bulldogs make more than 50% of their threes while the opponent shot terribly (31.1% overall, 20% from three). 

Coastal Carolina is averaging 76.7 points per game at home. They outscore teams by 14.5 PPG here.

Fresno State averages only 63.1 points per game on the road. Their last road win came on February 22nd. It was against a terrible Air Force team. The Bulldogs are the favorites here and I’m not exactly sure why!

Coastal Carolina is at home, will obviously be motivated and getting points. What’s not to like? FSU is 1-4 ATS its last five tries as a favorite.

In the NBA, taking a double digit favorite on the road is typically not all that wise. When the favorite is a team that is just a game over .500, laying the points in this situation seems very head-scratching.

Then you’ve got the matter of Oklahoma City having covered the spread seven straight times. 

The Thunder are short-handed, but that was the case when they took on Portland Monday and OKC won that game, in overtime, 134-131. They scored a season-high in points despite being without their top five scorers.

Atlanta just faced another short-handed team (Indiana) Monday, on the road, and won by only nine. I just don’t know how you can trust the Hawks to beat the oddsmakers’ projection in this one. 

The Hawks are just 12-25 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more points in their last game. The Thunder have the best ATS winning percentage in the entire NBA at 65.8%.  They are 46-24 ATS as underdogs. Grab the points.

The Kings are in a playoff spot, but will need to play more consistently to maintain it. Playing the Kraken twice in a row at home will help. They traded for an extra defenceman and have Edler returning so have improved their defense, but otherwise stood pat. LA beat the Kraken by a pair of goals on Saturday, and a similar outcome can be expected today. This is a “must win” game for the Kings.

The Kraken had a pair of wins against a pair of bottom feeders, but with all the deadline losses to an already poor team, will have trouble competing against any talented opponent. They struggle to score at the best of times, and have lost major pieces to both offense and defense. As the impact of those losses sinks in, it is unlikely that we see very much success for the Kraken from now until the season’s end.

The Kings are heavily favored, but the price on the puckline is acceptable. This is a good opportunity for the Kings to show some offensive muscle. Look for the Kings to roll over the Kraken for a second time in two outings. Kings to win -1 ½.

San Antonio still has a shot, folks. A shot of making the play-in round as they are just one game back of the Lakers, who lost yesterday, for 10th place (the last spot). Having won three straight, the Spurs now have an excellent chance of making it a perfect 4-0 road trip as they take on the Rockets tonight.

Houston has won two in a row, both games in Portland, but has not posted three consecutive victories at any time this season, outside of a stunning seven-game win streak in late November/early December. In fact, this is just the second time in 2022 that they have won back to back games.

Before beating Portland two straight times, the Rockets had the worst record in the NBA. The Spurs have won the last two meetings by a combined 55 points. 

Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray had an “off” shooting night in the last game, but the team still won anyway. I certainly expect Murray to shoot better than 4 of 19 tonight and make a three. (He was 0 for 5 on threes Saturday). Houston gives up a league-worst 117.6 points per game.

This is a game that the Spurs simply MUST have, if they are to make the play-in round. I don’t think it will be close.

We’re down to the semifinals of “The Basketball Classic” with Coastal Carolina taking on South Alabama. Winner here will meet the winner of Southern Utah vs. Fresno State (also played tonight). I’m taking the dog. 

This game is taking place in Mobile, but the home court advantage hasn’t been a big boost to South Alabama so far in this tournament. The previous two games were at home and the Jaguars are 0-2 ATS. They obviously won both, but by a total of only six points. 

Will USA shoot 58.8% again like they did last week vs. USC Upstate? Unlikely. Coastal Carolina has held its opponents to 38.4% shooting overall for the season.

The Chanticleers have been far more dominant than South Alabama has in this tournament. CC’s first two wins have been by 24 and 16 points. Going back to the end of the regular season, this is a team that has won five of its last six games.

These teams are conference rivals, both hailing from the Sun Belt. It is a huge revenge opportunity for the underdog, who lost the only regular season matchup - by three points at home. Coastal has lost three in a row to USA, but all three losses were by six points or less. They will be amped for this opportunity to exact revenge.

This is an important game that could determine who gets the home court advantage in a possible first round playoff series. Utah and Dallas are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference, both teams sporting 45-29 records. The Jazz won the first two meetings this season, but the Mavs took the last one. All three times the home team has won.

Both teams are coming off losses. Utah is actually coming off three straight losses. They have not scored more than 106 points in any of those games. It was a 107-101 loss in Charlotte on Friday. This is the Jazz’s fifth straight game on the road, all played in the last eight days.

While Utah was losing in Charlotte, Dallas suffered a critical loss in Minnesota, 116-95. Not only did that loss prevent the Mavs from overtaking the Jazz, but it moved them closer to 7th place, which would mean the play-in round. They are now only 2.5 games ahead of the Timberwolves.

The good news for Dallas is that they are 15-3 ATS this season following a game where they did not score 100 points. I can’t see them shooting as poorly tonight as they did on Friday when they made only 38 percent from the field, including 10 of 43 three-point shooting. Defense should improve tonight as well. The Mavs are giving up just 102.1 points per game at home, best in the league.

The Jazz have not fared well as underdogs, going just 3-7 ATS when getting points. That includes a 28-point loss in Boston earlier in the week. The offensive downturn coincides with the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic, who is set to miss his eighth straight game tonight. Lay the short number with the home team here.

St. Peter’s has stunned the College Basketball world by becoming the first 15 seed to make the Elite 8. In addition to upsets over Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue, the Peacocks have covered the spread in 10 straight games. They have not lost a game since Feb 20th at Siena. 

Somewhat lost in the Peacocks’ miracle run is the team they’re facing in the Regional Final is an 8-seed. No one expected North Carolina to get here either, even though the Tar Heels have now won 13 of their last 15 games.

With Duke advancing to the Final Four yesterday, EVERYONE is going to be anticipating a Duke-UNC rematch next weekend (UNC handed Duke a humbling loss in Coach K’s final home game).

But St. Peter’s has the better defensive efficiency rating in this matchup. They are top 25 nationally in that regard, which tells me that this run is not all smoke and mirrors. This is a team that just held Purdue, who had the country’s most efficient offense, to 64 points. 

The Peacocks may not win, but I’m taking the points. Remember that North Carolina trailed most of the game against UCLA. I don’t see the favorite scoring a ton of points in this matchup.

Houston is the favorite in this Regional Final, despite being the lower seed, as they have covered six in a row and just dispatched top seeded Arizona. The Cougars appear to be as strong as any team left in the field. They are top ten in offensive AND defensive efficiency. No other team still standing can say that.

Villanova, like Houston, is 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve beaten Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan, none of whom were seeded higher than seventh (and the 7-seed Ohio State was basically a pick ‘em vs. 10-seed Loyola Chicago in the first round). ‘Nova’s shooting percentages - both overall and from three - have gone down each game.

This will be only the sixth time where the Wildcats are underdogs this year. They are 1-4 (straight up) previously in the role. Houston is one of the top pointspread teams in the entire country at 25-12 ATS, including 9-1 on a neutral court. 

The way Houston dominated Arizona, an elite team, from start to finish cannot be overlooked. All three Houston wins in this tournament have been by double digits. They’ve actually won six straight by double digits. 

Defensively, the Cougars are #1 in the country in FG% defense and I think they are going to do an excellent job at limiting Villanova’s threes. Also, look for Houston to continue to clean up on the offensive glass. They’ve collected 10+ offensive rebounds in five straight games. Villanova has allowed 11+ offensive rebounds in five of the last six games, the lone exception coming against Delaware. Lay the points. 

This is a big game for both teams. New Orleans is tied with the Lakers for the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio is two games back and can cut that difference in half with a win tonight.

The Spurs are 2-0 on the current trip, including a 37-point win at Portland in their last games. Before that, they took advantage of Golden State not having Steph Curry and won 110-108. 

In that Portland game, the Spurs made 19 three-pointers, tying a season-high, and 13 of those came in the first half. I do not anticipate them being that prolific from long range here.

The last time these teams played, the Pelicans ran away with a 33-point victory, 124-91. That game took place last week. Not enough has changed in the last eight days to convince me the Spurs can make up the gap. 

New Orleans is coming off a 126-109 win over Chicago Thursday night. Over the last six games, they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. They are also 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 games as a favorite while San Antonio is on a 6-13 ATS run as a dog + 4-12 ATS run off an ATS win. Lay the points here.

In what is surely a sign that the Trail Blazers are at their nadir, tonight they are underdogs - at home - to the Rockets. Having won just two games after the All-Star Break and announcing Damian Lillard’s season is over, there’s little to celebrate in Portland right now. The team just lost by 37 here to San Antonio. But look for “pride” to kick in and them to beat Houston.

The Rockets have the worst record in the NBA and the worst point differential. I don’t believe they should ever be favored on the road. It’s happened only one other time all season. There have been only five games that Houston has been favored in, period. They just lost by 19 at Dallas and have only three wins since the Break.

The teams will also play in Portland tomorrow night. The Blazers have captured seven of the previous eight head to head encounters, including 125-110 at Houston in late January. 

Not only has Houston lost 19 of its last 22 games overall, they are 0-11 L11 road games. And they are favored tonight! I just don’t see why. This is the worst team in the NBA!

"It was a disappointing effort. It was a really embarrassing first half. Give up 81 points, they I think at that time had 21 fast-break points, 30 points in the paint, they had it everywhere. I don't know how many threes they made (it was 13). They had it going every which way. By way of that, it was pretty ugly. "I don't think we prepared for the battle that was going to happen. Our guys looked tired, man. They looked really tired to be honest with you."

Those were the comments of Blazers’ head coach Chauncey Billups after the loss to the Spurs. Again, look for his team to come out with some pride, at home, after suffering such an embarrassing loss. 

So Providence has proven a lot of its detractors wrong thus far by turning in two strong efforts here in the NCAA Tournament. First they defeated high-flying South Dakota State 66-57. That one was impressive because they held the second highest scoring team in the nation to almost 30 points less than its season average. Then, in the second round, the Friars really put the clamps down in a 79-51 blowout of Richmond.

Now that was a 13 and a 12 seed that Providence faced. Now they face top seeded Kansas. The Jayhawks have beaten Texas Southern (a 16-seed) and Creighton (who finished several games back of Providence in the Big East). So this is also their stiffest test so far in the Big Dance.

Providence has lost only five games this season and only three times by more than five points. That’s a fewer number of overall losses than Kansas. As an underdog, the Friars are 8-1 against the spread. 

Creighton shot well against Kansas, at least from three, where it made 43%. I think Providence is capable of replicating that kind of long-range success. The Friars are 22-1 this season when making at least 30% or better from beyond the arc.

Perfect trend alert: Providence is 8-0 ATS against teams averaging 77 or more points per game. Kansas averages 78.7. I think the Friars will hold the Jayhawks well below their season total, just as they did to South Dakota State and Richmond, both of whom shot under 36 percent. Take the points.

Watching the Sabres play, I've been impressed at the potential this team has, and it may well be that they are starting to realize some of it right now.  They've won 3 straight, and 5 of 7, beating some big names in the process.  Although saddled with the 26th rated defense for the season, they have given up only 8 goals in those 5 wins.

Meanwhile, the Capitals have lost 2 straight, and 5 of 6 of their previous games were decided by a single goal.  They are a very good road team, but aren't quite getting the goal-tending they were, and there are some significant injuries to consider.  They may very well play well enough to win, but I expect this youthful and exciting Sabres team to keep it close, as they did with the Penguins.  Take the Sabres + 1 1/2.

The Black Hawks won last night, but don't look for any kind of streak developing after losing big time at the trade deadline.  Fleury has kept them in many a game this season.  The goal-tending situation will be one to watch, starting today.

L.A. has played unevely lately, but will be bolsterd by a huge win against the Preds.  Their defense, badly depleted by injuries, received a boost with a key return and acquisition.  The Kings' offense broke out against the Predators.  Here is a second opportunity for some big numbers.  The Black Hawks are on a back-to-back, have struggled against the Kings in the past, and will likely be a very demoralized team.  This is a must win for the Kings.  Take L.A. to win -1 1/2.

I think we’re about to see the end of a legendary coaching career as this should end up being Coach K’s final time on the bench when Duke faces Texas Tech.

Even though they shot 57.1 percent from the field, the Blue Devils’ 85-76 win over Michigan State in the second round was a little misleading, at least when judged on the final score. Duke trailed with under three minutes to go before closing the game on a 13-2 run. The final four points all came at the free throw line, in the last 16 seconds, giving the Blue Devils the cover.

Duke will not be shooting 57% against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are arguably the best defensive team in the country. They just held Duke’s ACC rival Notre Dame to 32.7% shooting in a 59-53 Round 2 victory.

Texas Tech failed to cover that game as they were laying eight at the betting window. Here we do not need to really be concerned with the pointspread. By the way, the Red Raiders are 18-9 ATS this season when faced with a team that has a winning record.

Duke’s defense has been lousy for about the last two months. Over the last six games, the only team that failed to hit 76 against them was first round opponent Cal State Fullerton. Texas Tech scored 97 in its first round game, so they are more than capable of making the Blue Devils pay at the defensive end.

Washington State and BYU meet in the NIT Quarterfinals on Wednesday, at Provo. BYU has advanced to this point with consecutive 90+ point performances over Long Beach State (93-72) and Northern Iowa (90-72). Both wins came here at home.

Wazzu has gotten to this point mostly with defense, downing Santa Clara (another WCC team) 63-50 and then winning at SMU (which is not easy to do) 75-63. The Cougars were three-point underdogs for that second game.

BYU has lost only two home games this season. One was obviously to Gonzaga, the other was to San Francisco, another NCAA Tournament team. Earlier I talked about BYU’s recent offensive output. Well, they also are allowing only 63.9 points per game at home.

Washington State has played pretty well recently, but is 0-8 against NCAA Tournament teams. BYU is obviously not a NCAA Tournament team, but they were pretty close to being one; I’d say they were one of the top teams that did not get in. I like them as small home favorites.

As for the Cougars, they are just 2-6 ATS off their last eight straight up wins. That was 1-6 ATS off their last seven before upsetting SMU three days ago. BYU has had one more day to get ready for this game. 

Memphis won’t have Ja Morant on Wednesday and that puts them at a disadvantage in this non-conference showdown versus Brooklyn, who will have Kyrie Irving in its lineup (not to mention Kevin Durant as well). 

The Nets have finally started to put it together, winning six of seven. The lone game they dropped in that stretch was by two points to Dallas in the second night of a back-to-back. In their last game, the Nets beat the Jazz 114-106 and that was short-handed. The team was led by Durant’s 37 points.

With the winning run, Brooklyn is only three games back of a top six spot in the East. Getting into the top six is the goal as it would allow them to avoid the play-in round.

Memphis is second out West, but not having Morant is huge for this contest. I know the team has won without him in the past. But now they’re facing a team that has two of the best players in the league. 

The Nets have been better on the road this season, averaging 115.5 points and going 22-15. A lot of that is due to Irving’s status. With the opposition missing its best player and the Nets surging, it’s appropriate to back the visitors here.

The Sabres at 6-3 are a bit of a conundrum at the moment, beating some tough opponents one game, then not even showing up in the odd match. None the less, this is a young team with real potential. On the nights when they do show up, the Sabres have been very successful at limiting goals against. They face the Penguins, who won in convincing fashion last night, but are in a back-to-back situation tonight. With Jarry playing last night, the Sabres may catch a small break, as De Smith is expected in net.

The Penguins have won 3 straight, and have been very tough to play against, allowing 2 goals or less in 5 of 6 games. They are not the youngest team, so may lose a step tonight, but are still a heavy favorite, possibly too high a favorite for my liking. I think the Sabres, who stood pat at the trade deadline, have a good opportunity tonight, and will bet them on the puck line. Take the Sabres + 1 ½.