The set-up: Tennessee comes in tired in my opinion after its 26-23 OT win over Philadelphia, while the Bills come in focused and hungry after their humbling 22-0 road loss in Green Bay. Clearly the “outright” isn’t out of the question, but I’m grabbing the points in a game which I envision coming right down to the wire.

The teams: The Titans are averaging only 18.8 PPG, but they’re allowing just 18.2. Last week they had to rally from a 17-3 deficit to knock off the defending champs. QB Marcus Marriota was a stand out with 344 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT. The defense is the strength of the team, but it looked pretty pedestrian last week in allowing 315 passing yards.

The Bills are averaging only 12.5 PPG while allowing 26.5. So far rookie QB Josh Allen has 666 passing yards and a 2/4 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Tennessee is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record, while Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after getting shutout in its previous outing. I think the more “desperate” team takes this one down to the wire. Grab the points.

The set-up: Carolina enters off its bye week and I think it’ll get caught flat-footed here, just enough to allow the desperate Giants to sneak in through the back door.

The teams: New York is averaging 18.2 PPG and it’s struggled on the defensive side of the ball as well. Hence the 1-3 record. RB Saquon Barkley has been a bright spot though, he so far has 453 yards from scrimmage.

Fortunately for the Giants they face a Carolina offense which is averaging just 203.7 yards passing per game. The defense is weak against the run as well, allowing 110 yards per game on 4.93 yards per carry.

The pick: And that doesn’t bode well facing Barkley and this underachieving Giants offense. Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect a battle to the end and grab the points.

The set-up: Chip Kelly and UCLA are 0-4 to open the year, most recently falling 38-16 at Colorado last Friday. Washington comes to town off a 44-23 win over BYU and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today.

The teams: Washington comes in complacent in my opinion after four straight victories of the “rocking chair” variety. Last week QB Jake Browning had 277 yards and a TD, while the run game produced 187 yards. The Huskies allow just 11.6 PPG.

UCLA starting QB Wilson Speight was injured in the first game and it’s taken the team some time to adjust. Backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been decent, last week he was 17 of 35 for 138 yards and for the year he has 660 yards, three TD’s and two picks. One bright spot was the play of RB Joshua Kelley, who had 151 yards last week.

The pick: Washington’s weakness on defense? Against the run, allowing 126 YPG (ranked 40th.) I’m banking on the more desperate team keeping this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Maple Leafs survived a scare on Opening Night with a 3-2 OT victory over Montreal and it’s had two whole nights off to prepare for this one. The Leafs will be leaving everything on the line tonight, because tomorrow they embark on a tough five-game road trip starting in Chicago. Ottawa on the other hand comes in off a disheartening 4-3 OT loss to the Blackhawks at home and with a tough game in Boston on Monday, I think the visitors also get caught looking ahead here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a rout.

The set-up: ODU is coming off a 37-35 road loss to ECU last Saturday and I think it’ll stumble here as well after that disheartening setback. FAU is looking to bounce back after a 25-24 loss to MTSU on the road, its second straight setback.

The teams: The Monarchs enter averaging 27.8 PPG and allowing 36. QB Steven Williams is 41 of 81 for 507 yards with two TD’s and two INT’s, while Blake LaRussa has 928 yards with seven TD’s and one INT.

FAU has lost two straight. Overall the Owls are averaging 31.2 PPG and allowing 39.8. QB Chris Robison has 1,077 passing yards with five TD’s so far this year as swell as six INT’s and another 118 rushing yards and a major score. Devin Singletary leads the ground game 459 yards and 12 TD’s already.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ODU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records, while FAU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting less then 170 passing yards in its previous contest. FAU destroyed ODU 58-28 on the road last year and I’m expecting a similar sort of blowout here as well. Lay the points.

The set-up: This is an AAC conference battle from Lincoln Financial Field. ECU comes in off a thrilling 37-35 win over ODU last weekend and I think it’ll have a predictable “letdown” here after moving to .500 with that victory. Temple on the other hand will be looking to take out its frustrations on someone after battling hard and com in yup short in a loss at Boston College last weekend.

The teams: Reid Herring suffered an ankle injury in last week’s win over ODU, but the QB isn’t expected to miss anytime. He’s only competed 54 percent of his passes and he owns a weak 6:5 TD/INT ratio. Overall ECU averages 28.5 PPG.

The Owls are not having any issues scoring points, posting at least 31 in their last three games. Last week they came up short in a 45-35 setback at Boston College though. Ryquell Armstead had 171 yards on 24 carries with four TD’s and I have a hard time seeing this suspect Pirates defensive line slowing down the red hot RB.

The pick: The Owls’ defense catches a break this week. Look for Temple to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and for the Pirates to stumble after its big win last weekend. Lay the points.

The set-up: I absolutely believe that an outright win is possible here, but I’m still going to recommend grabbing the points. BYU has improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball and it does have the “revenge” factor working in its favor today, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to keep pace with the high-flying Aggies. Last year Utah State won 40-24 at home in this game.

The teams: Utah State is rested, coming into this one off its bye week. The Aggies have won four straight, most recently a 42-32 home victory over Air Force. Overall Utah State is averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing only 23.8. QB Jordan Love has 1,070 yards and a 5/3 TD:INT (although no INT’s in the last two games.)

Despite being smashed 35-7 last week by the No. 11 Huskies, the Cougars still concede just 20.6 PPG, which ranks them 35th in the country. However, the offense is the weak point, a unit which ranks near the bottom of many offensive categories. QB Tanner Mangum has 772 passing yards and 3:2 TD/INT (the offense does focus mainly on the ground game.)

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but note that BYU is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 after posting less than 170 passing yards in their previous game and just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home overall, while Utah State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five away from friendly confines. The Aggies are well balanced on offense and they’re also well rested. The Utah State defense is improved from last year as well. As mentioned off the top, as good as the Cougars have looked on the defensive side of the ball this year, the offense has been a major disappointment. Grab the points, but don’t be surprised by an outright upset!

The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals are in a “free fall” right now, losers of two straight, most recently against Virginia and FSU. Georgia Tech is just 1-3, but it comes in with some momentum after beating Bowling Green this past weekend.

The teams: Georgia Tech is 3-2 in its last five in having to play on a short week. QB TaQuon Marshall has rushed for at least one TD in all five games this year. So far in total he has seven rushing and two passing TD’s. The Yellow Jackets most recently steamrolled Bowling Green 63-17 this past Saturday and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Tobias Oliver was another standout with 115 yards rushing and two TD’s.

Louisville is struggling to find its No. 1 QB still, as head coach Bobby Petrino has been switching between Malik Cunningham and Jawon Pass. Pass would play the entire game last week in the loss to the Seminoles, going 24 of 45 for 306 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. He also fumbled the ball three times.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but GT is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 when playing with six or less days rest and interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in Weeks 5 through 9, while Louisville is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight October games and only 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Look for the Georgia Tech up-tempo offense to prove be too much for the Cardinals to keep up to. Lay the points.

The set-up: Each club sends its ace to the mound. The Tribe hand the ball to Corey Kluber, well the defending champs go with Justin Verlander. I think Verlander and the Astros will find a way to get the job done here.

The teams: Kluber went 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 215 innings of work. He’s had plenty of success on the road (9-4) this season and against the Astros throughout his career, posting a 2.83 ERA and 6-3 record.

Verlander hasn’t fared as well against the Tribe though, holding a 20-24, 4.71 ERA over 52 career starts. This season though he’d finish with a 16-9 record to go along with a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

The pick: Also note that over 22 career postseason appearances, Verlander owns a sharp 3.07 ERA. His counterpart though can’t say the same thing, as last year in the playoffs Kluber was rocked for nine runs off ten hits over two starts vs. the Bronx Bombers. Verlander was 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 36.2 innings in the 2017 playoffs. Also note that the Astros bullpen led the entire league this year with a 3.03 ERA, while the Indians were ranked 25th with a poor 4.60 ERA. Lay the price.

The set-up: The Pats broke a two-game slide with a 38-7 win over Miami last Sunday, while the Colts came up on the short end of the stick in a 37-34 OT setback at Houston last Sunday. These teams haven’t played since 2015.

The teams: Indianapolis had a 478-466 edge in offense last week, but it just wasn’t to be in the end. QB Andrew Luck so far has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s. Adam Vinatieri continues to be a steady source of production as well, hitting all eight extra points and eight nine field goals with a long of 51.

The Pats smashed the Dolphins last week with a 449-172 yardage advantage. So far QB Tom Brady has an unremarkable 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. RB Sony Michels has 196 yards and a TD.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indianapolis is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including 2-0 ATS this season) and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road (including 2-0 ATS this year), while New England is a horrible 0-4 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. I think Luck will match Brady. Grab the points.

The set-up: Tulsa enter off a listless 31-17 loss to Temple on the road last time out, so a well rested and high-powered Houston Cougars team will look to take advantage. The home side comes in off its bye, but previous tot that it destroyed Texas Southern 70-14.

The teams: The Golden Hurricane average 24 PPG and they allow 28.8. QB Like Skipper has four TD’s and six INT’s, while RB Shamari Brooks is a bright spot with 375 yards rushing and four TD’s.

Houston is averaging 52.2 PPG and it’s conceding 30.5. Defense is the weak point, but the unit catches a break today facing Tulsa’s impotent offense. QB D’Eriq King so far has 1,197 yards passing with 15 TD’s, one INT, to go along with 107 rushing yards and five more TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a losing road record, while Tulsa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. When these teams played last year it was Houston that pulled away for the simple 45-17 road victory. Now that the Cougars are playing at home, I’m expecting an even bigger rout. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Chiefs are 3-0 and feature the most explosive offense in the league. While the defense has been a weak point, KC catches a break this week facing the inconsistent Broncos. I think the Chiefs keep the foot on the gas in Week 4 and pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover.

The teams: KC is seventh in total offense with 398.3 YPG.Denver is 21st in the league in pass defense, allowing 262.7 YPG through the air. The Chiefs already have 15 pass plays that covered at least 20 yards this season. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has three TD’s and five INT’s and his passing yards have declined each week (last week he was 22 of 34 for 173 yards and an INT in the loss to the Ravens.)

The pick: The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five MNF contests, while Denver is just 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 MNF appearances. Lay the points and expect a rout, play on Kansas City.

The set-up: Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over the Bucs last week, but it’ll still be desperate to avoid a 1-3 start. Baltimore though has struggled on the road over the last few years and after beating the Broncos at home last week, I think it’ll predictably stumble here.

The teams: Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has yet to post a 100 yard game and Baltimore ranks among the worst rushing offenses in the league. QB Joe Flacco continues to look decent one game and horrible the next. Pittsburgh has struggled against the run, but Baltimore’s one-dimensional offense isn’t going to fool the home side I don’t think tonight.

Pittsburgh had/has plenty of off-field drama to contend with with player hold-outs, but it took a big step in the right direction in last weeks convincing victory over Tampa Bay. Big Ben looked sharp under center and I think the pivot carries that momentum over here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. I think Flacco struggles in this difficult venue and I look for Roethlisberger and company to step up on the National stage. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in at 1-2 and each will be hungry for a victory here. The only difference is, the 49ers lost the services of starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the remainder of the season to injury last week. I think veteran QB Phillip Rivers takes full advantage and puts the pressure on the visitors from start to finish.

The teams: San Fran enters off a 38-27 loss to KC. Not only is Garoppolo out, but so too is defensive specialist Richard Sherman with a quad injury.

LA comes in off a 12 point loss to the Rams. Rivers already has 906 yards, eight TD’s and one INT, while Melvin Gordon has 172 yards and two scores on the ground. WR Keenan Allen has 219 receiving yards and a TD as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but LA is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while San Fran is interestingly just 1-8 ATS in its last nine after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous outing. Look for the Chargers to go straight for the jugular. Lay the points.

The set-up: Miami is 3-0 to open the season and it’ll be looking to kick New England when its down. The Pats enter off a horrible 26-10 road loss to Detroit and I think they’re ripe for the picking here. The outright isn’t out of the question. Note that New England took the first game last season 35-17, before the Fish countered with a 27-20 home win in the second.

The teams: Miami’ QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s in a victory over the Raiders. He now has 687 passing yards and a 7:2 TD/INT. WR Kenny Still had 61 receiving yards last week and overall he has 184. Miami is averaging 25 PPG and it’s allowing 17.3 (good for sixth.)

New England’s season will essentially be over if it falls to 1-3. Miami can smell the blood in the water and will look to take advantage of a Patriots team which is averaging 19 PPG and allowing 25.7 (21st overall).

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Pats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting less than 150 passing yards in their previous game, while the Fish are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU victory. “The Changing Of The Guard” is happening right before our eyes. Get ready for it. But grab the points just in case!

The set-up: Buffalo comes in off a commanding 27-6 road win over Minnesota last week and I think it’ll carry that confidence and momentum over here. Green Bay comes in dejected after it’s 31-17 road loss to Washington.

The teams: Buffalo is averaging 16.7 PPG and it’s allowing 28. Those numbers are a bit skewed though I think after two really horrible games to open the season. With QB Josh Allen finally getting comfortable, clearly the Bills looked a lot better last week. Allen was 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and he also added two more rushing TD’s. The defense also rebounded in a big way and it’ll have some opportunities to make some plays today too I think.

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers had 265 passing yards with two TD’s. He played with a brace on his knee and he was seen many times hobbling around. The run game mustered a paltry 87 yards. overall the Pack is averaging 23.3 PPG and it’s allowing 27.7.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing less than 15 points in its previous contest. I’ll even recommend “sprinkling a little” on the money line. That said, grab the points!

analysis soon

The set-up: I think Cincinnati comes in complacent here at 3-0 and facing the lowly Huskies. UConn is just 1-3 following a setback against Syracuse last week but I expect it to keep this one competitive.

The teams: Cincinnati comes in off an emotional come-from-behind win over Ohio last week, with QB Desmond Ridder going 19 of 29 for 274 yards and two TD’s. The Ground game is averaging 235.2 YPG so far.

Connecticut ranks last in the FBS on defense, allowing 54.5 YPG. It’s difficult to say too many positive things about this team, as for the most part it’s struggled. It’s looked decent offensively though and I think it’ll have its opportunities again today against this disinterested Bearcats side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Cincinnati is still just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as a favorite, while UConn is 6-4 ATS in its last ten against a team with a winning record. No outright, but a tight battle. Grab the points.

The set-up: UCLA is horrible, it’s 0-3 for the first time since 1971 following last week’s 38-14 home loss to Fresno State last Saturday. The team suffered more bad new with backup QB Devon Modster announced this week that he’s transferring. Colorado looks to deliver the knock out blow at home and improve to 4-0.

The teams: UCLA has given up more than 400 yards of offense in every game this year, while averaging just 320. 13 of the team’s 41 Blue Chip recruits have left the team after Jim Mora was replaced by Jim Kelly at coach.

Buffalo QB Steven Montez has 855 passing yards, eight TD’s and two picks so far this season. Last week the Buffs had 311 yards of rushing in a 45-14 destruction of New Hampshire.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of mor ethan 20 points, while UCLA is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 conference game sand just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road. I don’t think the Bruins respond here at all. In fact, I as mentioned off the top, I look for the Buffs to kick this team while it’s down. Lay the points.

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY!

analysis soon

The set-up: Outright upset? Of course not. But I think Miami Florida comes in distracted enough to let lowly FIU sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

The teams: FIU destroyed UMass 63-24 last weekend, as QB James Morgan had 207 yards and two TD’s. Shawndarrius Phillips had 117 rushing yards. Overall Morgan has six TD’s and three INT’s. Clearly this is a huge step up in competition, but after two straight wins, the Panthers won’t just be rolling over here today.

Miami Florida comes in off a big win too, smashing Toledo 49-24. QB Malik Rosier was 13 of 23 for 205 yards and two TD’s, while also adding 80 yards and three more scores on the ground. Note that the defense took a major hit with an injury to Jaquan Johnson. He he went out Toledo gained huge chunks through the air.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but FIU is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Miami Florida is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records. I think a confident and “under the radar” FIU team can keep this one competitive against an over-confident and complacent Hurricanes home side. Grab the points.

The set-up: It’s an important early season ACC match-up between Clemson and Georgia Tech. Clemson enters off a 38-7 victory at home over Georgia Southern, while Georgia Tech is off a tough 24-19 road loss to Pittsburgh. Note that when these teams played last year it was Clemson that won 24-10 at home.

The teams: Clemson comes in complacent here, now ranked No. 2 in the country. So far the Tigers are averaging 38 PPG and allowing 13.3. Clemson has a QB battle going on still between Trevor Lawrence and Kelly Bryant.

Georgia Tech comes in hungry after opening the season 1-2. After a win over Alcorn State, the Yellow Jackets have dropped two straight on the road to South Florida and Pittsburgh. Overall the team is ranked 21st in the nation in total offense (510 YPG) and 64th in scoring with 32.7. The defense has also been sharp in allowing only 24.3 PPG.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while Georgia Tech is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog and 5-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. The conditions are right for a much tighter than expected affair in my opinion. Grab the points.

The set-up: UCF comes in refreshed because its game last weekend was cancelled because of Hurricane Florence. Central Florida is already 2-0 with victories over UConn and South Carolina State. FAU lost to Oklahoma, before then bouncing back with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman.

The teams: The Owls do indeed come in off the 49-28 win over Bethune-Cookman, but they’ve had just five days off. Clearly the visitors are at a major disadvantage from a fitness and mental stand-point this week already. Devin Singletary was a standout in the latest victory with a school-record five rushing TD’s.

The Knights have 612 yards on the ground through two games and 606 through the air. Seven different players have gained at least 68 yards, led by Adrian Killins Jr., who has 127 yards and three TD’s. QB McKenzie Milton is so far 45 of 71 for 589 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but FAU is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while UCF is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think the “fresher” home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

The set-up: Both teams come in at 0-1 and only one will leave this contest with a victory. I think that home field will prove to be the difference for Chicago.

The teams: Seattle threw everything it had on the line in Week 1, but it still came up short in a 27-24 setback in Denver. The offense lost star WR Doug Baldwin to injury and his return in unknown at this point. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards, but no receiver caught more than four passes. QB Russell Wilson had 298 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s, but he was just 19 of 33 overall.

The Bears lost 24-23 in Green Bay. The defense looked great until the final moments when it gave up a 75 yard TD strike to Randall Cobb. QB Mitch Trubisky had 171 passing yards and 32 yards and a TD on the ground. RB Jordan Howard at 85 yards on 15 carries. Khalil Mack put on a show defensively and I think he’s going to have a big night here as well against the Seahawks’ suspect O-line.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 at home (also 6-2 ATS in its last eight MNF contests), while Seattle is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four Week 2 contests. The Hawks were a terrible 2 for 12 on third down against the Broncos and now they face a similar swarming defensive unit. I like Trubisky to find a way to get the job done at home. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams looked terrible last week. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” one which is going to be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. In a scenario like that, I’m going to grab the points every time.

The teams: New York lost 20-15 at home to Jacksonville. RB Saquon Barkley was a stand out with 106 yards and a TD. Eli Manning had 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT. The veteran should make significant progression as the season wears on though. The defense was sharp overall, allowing just 305 yards.

Dallas looked horrible offensively in Week 1 and it all falls onto QB Dak Prescott’s shoulders. He was 19 of 29 for 17 yards. He also lost a fumble. He was also sacked six times. The beleaguered Cowboys’ QB is getting progressively worse with each outing as he’s now thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while New York is interestingly 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 2 contests. The Jags have one of the best defensive units in the league, but New York faces a much more manageable opponent this week. The outright isn’t out of the question, but I’m going to grab the points.

The set-up: I think the home side on the “run line” is the correct call in this Sunday night match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Ross Stripling, while the Cards go with Adam Wainwright.

The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA. Stripling’s back in the rotation out of necessity and he’s done exceptionally well whenever he’s been given the chance this season. Stripling’s been great, I simply feel that he and his team are over-priced in this spot against the hungry home side.

Wainwright is so far 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA. He returned from the DL on Monday and gave up four runs while striking out three in a fortunate win over the Pirates. Clearly Wainwright has seen better days, but the veteran will be given every opportunity by the club during its playoff push.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine night National League home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Grab the Cards on the “run line.”

The set-up: I like the Lions to bounce back on the road here after a tough setback in Week 1. The 49ers also lost in Week 1 and I think they’re ripe for the picking.

The teams: Detroit was humbled 48-17 last week and new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat. The Lions would give up 31 third-quarter points: “It came to a point there in the third quarter where we just didn’t have control anymore in all three phases,” Patricia assessed. “We just have to do a better job. Obviously, we have to coach this a lot better than what we did tonight and we have to go out and execute a lot better on the field. We have to do a better job altogether. It starts with me.” QB Matt Stafford had 286 yards, while the defense allowed 169 rushing yards.

San Francisco didn’t look too much better in its 24-16 loss at Minnesota. QB Jimmy Garoppolo looked poor, going 15 of 33 for 261 yards, one TD and three INT’s. Is there any QB more over-rated than this guy? The 49ers finished with just 13 points on four trips inside the Red Zone. The team lost the services of WR Marquise Goodwin to injury also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I expect a hard-fought battle, one which will likely be decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Falcons have been over-rated for quite some time in my estimation. Atlanta had several chances to deliver the knock out blow to Eagles in Week 1, but the offense stalled in the Red Zone on three different occasions, with the visitors coming up completely empty. With that loss still on their minds, I think the Falcons are ripe for the picking here. The Panthers will be happy to oblige as they look to move to 2-0 and gain an early critical victory over a divisional foe.

The teams: Carolina prevailed 16-8 against Dallas last week, holding the Cowboys to 0 for 5 on third down in the first half. Cam Newton had his hands full for the most of the game, but he made some big plays when he needed too. And now he faces a much more suspect defensive unit in the Falcons.

Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 251 yards, no TD’s and an INT in last week’s 18-12 loss at Philadelphia. The defense looked decent, but the book is still out on the Eagles offense at this point, so it’s hard to read too much into what the Falcons’ unit did in Week 1.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Atlanta is just 12-13 ATS in its last 25 as a favorite. Grab the points, play on Carolina.

The set-up: Missouri comes in as the more complacent team here as it’s won two straight to open the season, most recently a 40-13 destruction of Wyoming at home last weekend. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for Purdue which has lost two in a row, most recently a shocking 20-19 setback to EMU last Saturday.

The teams: Missouri is so far averaging 396 yards per game in the early going, but it faces a stiff test today. The offense has put up 45.5 PPG, while the defense has allowed only 13.5. QB Drew Lock had 687 yards, eight TD’s and no INT’s.

Purdue is ranked 89th in the country in passing offense with an average of 202.5 YPG. 24th in rushing offense though with 271.5 YPG. So far the combination of David Blough and Elijah Sindelar has come up short under center, but I think that changes this weekend. The offense is averaging just 23 PPG right now, but the defense is giving up only 25.5.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field, while Purdue is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. An outright upset? Possibly. Purdue is without question the “hungrier” team and I think this game will be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points, play on Purdue.

The set-up: This is a classic “David vs. Goliath” match-up. However in this version, I believe Goliath will pound David through the field turf! Oregon comes in off back-to-back blowout victories and I fully expect that trend to carry over here for one more game. San Jose State on the other hand was shutout in a loss to Washington State last weekend.

The teams: The Spartans put up 38 points in a loss to FCS UC Davis and then got killed by Washington State. Overall San Jose State has a total of 109 yards of offense over the first two games, with 100 of those coming through the air.

So far Oregon has outscored its opponents by 31 points to open the year, as QB Justin Herbert has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for 531 yards, nine TD’s and two INT’s. The ground attack has been solid as well and it looks poised for a massive game here against SJSU’s pathetic defense.

The pick: The Spartans though have been particularly horrible against the pass, giving up an average of 433 yards per game through the air to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while San Jose State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine on the road. I don’t think SJSU will score a point. Lay the points.

The set-up: Of course I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for the Badgers to come in a tiny bit complacent here and I expect them to get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent. Wisconsin has won two in a row, most recently hammering New Mexico 45-14, while BYU comes in off a slim 21-18 home setback to Cal. Not surprisingly this is a “revenge” game after Wisconsin smashed BYU 40-6 on the road last year.

The teams: BYU QB Tanner Mangum was 22 of 41 for 196 yards and two INT’s last week. So far he has a 2:2 TD/INT over two games. Over the first two games the offense is averaging 23 points. The defense though has looked pretty good, last week it gave up 386 total yards. Over the first two games the Cougars are allowing 22 points.

Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook has a 3:1 TD/INT after two games, after throwing 25 TD passes last season. RB Jonathan Taylor had 253 rushing yards, but he’ll be up against a decent BYU rush defense this week. The defense was a strength of the team last year and it will be again this season as well. However note that the unit did lose eight starters from last year’s squad.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is still 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Wisconsin is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 at home and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. Grab the points, play on BYU.

The set-up: I think Minnesota comes in complacent here after two straight wins, most recently a 21-14 victory at home over Fresno State. Miami Ohio on the other hand is looking to atone after a 21-0 “dud” loss to Cincinnati.

The teams: Redhawks’ QB Gus Ragland had 357 yards passing in Week 1’s loss to Marshall, but he was just 22 of 41 for 139 in last week’s loss. WR James Gardner has been a bright spot early with 142 yards over the first two games. Miami Ohio has looked decent defensively in the early going as well, last week limiting Cincinnati to just 233 total yards. Note that he pass defense was ranked 41st last season.

Last week the Golden Gophers limited Fresno State to 299 total yards. QB Zack Annexstad had 175 yards in the win. But the victory came at a major cost, as note that star RB Rodney Smith was lost for the season with a knee injury. He is arguably the best player on the team and it’s a major blow to the team’s psyche.

The pick: With a game at 2-0 Maryland next week, I think this does indeed set up as a classic “trap” game for the Golden Gophers. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

The set-up: This is the first time these teams have played since 2012, however they’re separated by just two hours by bus. Temple is 0-2 after losing to FCS Villanova and then Buffalo, while Maryland comes in complacent at 2-0 after upsetting Texas 34-29, before then smashing Bowling Green 45-14. I am not predicting an outright upset, but I do think the Terps “look past” their lowly opponent today.

The teams: Last year the Owls had the top ranked pass defense in the AAC and the unit returned many starters, including Shaun Bradely (85 tackles) and Delvon Randall this season. So far the defense has been a disappointment, but the talent is certainly there to make a bounce back. Last week the offense posted 240 yards, with QB Frank Nutile posting three TD’s and two INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead had 107 yards on 14 carries.

Maryland was down 14-10 to the Green Falcons at half time last week, but it would outscore Bowling Green 35-0 in the second half. The Terps rushed for 444 yards. QB Kasim Hill was a disappointment though, going 8 of 16 for 121 yards and a TD. The Terps have looked solid defensively in the early going and vs. very weak competition, but don’t forget that they were last or near the bottom of the Big 10 in every defensive statistical category last year.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Temple is still 10-2 ATS in its last 12 on the road and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Maryland is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 at home. Grab the points, play on the Owls.

The set-up: Both teams come in at 2-0. The Golden Eagles though play with revenge and they have a deeper overall team this season. I think that’s going to be more than enough to propel the visitors to a victory tonight.

The teams: BC smashed Holy Cross 62-14 last weekend. QB Anthony Brown only had to play one quarter. In Week 1 he had four TD’s against UMass. Wake Forest’s weakness on defense is against the pass, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the Demon Deacons tonight. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards last week. The defense limited Holy Cross to just 194 total yards.

Wake Forest cruised to a 51-20 home win over Towson last week. QB Sam Hartman had two TD’s and 242 passing yards las week. He also has three INT’s early in the season though. RB Cade Carney had a big game with 130 rushing yards. The Demon Deacons looked sharp defensively against the lowly Tigers, holding them to just 65 rushing yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their previous game (note that Wake was 124th in the country in defending the pass last year and it just let Towson throw for over 300!), while the Eagles are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. I look for BC QB Brown to have a very productive game here. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the mound this afternoon, that I have no issues at all in laying the the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors go with Gerritt Cole, while the home side goes with Daniel Norris.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with three walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a win over the Angels in his last start. Cole has been sharp on the road as well, going 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA.

Norris is so far 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA. He has struggled in his limited time so far this season and there’s no reason not to think that that pattern of futility won’t get carried over here as well. Note that he’s a terrible 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in all “day” games also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Astros are 7-2 in their last nine American League road games in which they’re a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Look for Cole to dominate from the start and for Norris to get the hook early and lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros.

The set-up: The Jets turn to rookie QB Sam Darnold in Week 1 and while the sky could in fact be the limit for the red-headed pivot, I think he’ll stumble trying to match pace with Lions’ veteran Matt Stafford. The teams: In three exhibition games Darnold went 29 of 45 for 244 yards and two TD’s with an INT. The Jets have talent, but no big names. Jermaine Kearse had 65 catches for 810 yards last year, but note that he could be unable to play in Week 1 due to an injury he suffered in the preseason. Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell lead a decent ground game. The defense was a strength for New York last year and the unit should be again this season as well. Matt Patricia takes over as head coach for the Lions, as he looks to get the team over the hump. Stafford finished with 4,449 yards, 29 TD’s and ten INT’s last season. LeGarrette Blount was signed in the offseason and he’s expected to bolster a run game which was severely lacking last year. Also note that both of Stafford’s 1,000 yard receivers return in Marvin Jones Jr. and Golden Tate.  The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday Night Football games, while New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points and expect a rout. Play on Detroit.

The set-up: “The Prodigal Son” returns to his former stomping grounds, looking to dominate on the road. For a number of different reasons, I absolutely believe that Justin Verlander and the defending champs on the run-line (-1.5) is the correct move. The Tigers send Francisco Liriano to the hill.

The pitchers: Verlander is so far 14-9 with a 2.73 ERA. He’s been trading good starts with bad ones of late (for his incredibly high standards anyways), but he has to be feeling confident here, coming in sporting the still elite 11-2, 2.26 ERA on the road this season.

Liriano is so far 4-9 with a 4.90 ERA. He has been a disappointment for a second straight year and he can’t be feeling too confident at all here, as note that he’s a terrible 2-3 with a 5.55 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Astros are 7-2 in their last nine night American League road games in which they are a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 runs on Houston in this one.

The set-up: Kick Cousins makes his Vikings debut against the 49ers and QB Jimmy Garappolo. The 49ers blew up their team after ten games last year and they never looked back with Garappolo under center. That said, I think he’ll be in for a rude awakening at what will undoubtedly be a rowdy atmosphere at the US Bank Stadium.

The teams: Garoppolo was 5-0 as a starter for San Francisco last year. It was an unbelievable run, but regression seems imminent in my opinion.

The Vikings possessed the best defensive unit in the league last year, one which was even better in front of the home town crowd.

The pick: This is an “early,” release, so I plan on updating my analysis as we get closer to game time. However, over the time of this release and when this one kicks off, I do indeed expect this line to climb. Normally at this time of year the defensive units are many steps ahead of the offensive side and that’s exactly what I’m expecting in this one. Combined with the competent Cousins and a Vikings team looking to take out its frustrations after the loss in the NFC Championship Game last year, this one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Lay the points, play on the Vikes.

The set-up: Many will be on Pittsburgh here I think. But the Browns looked sharp in the preseason with their “new look” line-up and I think they’ll keep this one interesting late. The Steelers were 13-3 last year, while Cleveland was 0-16. Not surprisingly this is indeed a “revenge” game for the Browns, who lost both games last season.

The teams: The Steelers averaged 25.4 PPG last year and allowed 19.3. Ben Roethlisberger is back under center, and Le’Veon Bell is back as RB. Note Bell did not play in a single preseason game, the same as last year.

The Browns have plenty of new weapons on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Tyrod Taylor had 2,799 passing yards with a 14:4 TD/INT ratio last year for the Bills, as well as adding 427 rushing yards. Taylor, along with RB Carlos Hyde and WR Josh Gordon present a difficult challenge for anyone. In 11 games last year Myles Garrett made seven sacks, but the talented defender now comes into this season at 100% health finally.

The pick: While they did lose both games to the Steelers last year, the Browns would make it competitive each time, falling 28-24 and 21-18. When the smoke clears at the end of this one I think we’ll see similarly hard-fought battle. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Titans finished 9-7 last year and they beat the Chiefs 22-21 in the Wild card round of the playoffs, before then falling 35-14 to New England in the Divisional round. The Fish were just 6-10 last year, but with the return of QB Ryan Tannehill, Miami is hoping for a return to the postseason. Tannehill though lacks talent around him and I think the “deeper” Titans will pull away down the stretch.

The teams: Tennessee’ QB Marcus Mariota had 3,232 yards with 13 TDs and 15 INTs last season. He also had 312 yards and five scores on the ground. RB Derrick Henry leads the ground attack after DeMarco Murray retired and he had 744 yards and five TD’s last year.

Tannehill makes his first appearance since 2016, when he went for 2,995 yards 19 TD’s and 12 INT’s. Kenyan Drake had 644 yards and three TD’s rushing last year, while WR Danny Amendola had 659 yards and two TD’s.

The pick: For this pick I’m going to focus on the starting QB’s and while Tannehill could be the saviour once again for Miami, I think Marriota is the correct call here. The Titans’ pivot comes off a very successful season and he should only be better again this year under the same system. This one has blowout written all over it, play on Tennessee.

The set-up: The UTEP Miners come in off a 30-10 home loss to Northern Arizona, while UNLV fell 43-21 to USC last week. No outright upset here, but I think the visitors can keep it interesting late. The teams: Last week the Miners only managed 229 yards. Kai Locksley had 120 yards passing on 26 attempts. Last year UTEP had the nation’s worst offense, but it’s expected to take a few steps forward this season with many starters returning. The defense was solid, allowing 318 total yards, including just three yards per rush average.  UNLV’s Armani Rogers was just 12 of 27 for 97 yards last week, but he did have two TD passes, while also rushing for 82 yards. RB Lexington Thomas was a bright spot with 136 yards on 14 carries. Last year the offense averaged 28.8 points. The UNLV defense fell apart late last week, after allowing 31.8 PPG last year.  The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UNLV is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. UTEP’s improved and with nothing to lose here, I look for it to indeed put up a bit of a fight. Grab the points.

The set-up: Texas comes in off an inexplicable loss at home to Maryland it’ll be risking life and limb today to get back on track. Thankfully for the ‘Horns, The Golden Hurricane come to town. Everything points to a lop-sided blowout in this one.

The teams: Tulsa nearly fell to FCS school Central Arkansas last Saturday, needing a fourth quarter come from behind effort to beat the Bears 38-27. QB Luke Skipper was 15 of 24 for 196 yards and two TD’s. The last time the Golden Hurricane faced a Big 12 team it didn’t go too well though, falling 59-26 at No. 10 Oklahoma State last season.

Texas’ late rally fell short last week. QB Same Ehlinger had 263 yards and two TD’s. He also had two INT’s. It was an all around uncharacteristically sloppy game for the Longhorns, also suffering ten penalties for 102 yards.

The pick: I think it’s impossible for Texas to play that horribly again though. I’l point out at as well that Texas has not opened 0-2 since 1992. Look for the ‘Horns to settle down at home and to take advantage of this suspect Golden Hurricanes’ defense. Lay the points.

The set-up: Maryland comes in off a big win over No. 23 Texas from Landover last weekend and I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. Well, enough of one anyways for the hungry Bowling Green Falcons to comfortably cover with the healthy spread they’ve been afforded.

The teams: Maryland QB Kasim Hill was 17 of 29 for 222 yards and one TD. RB Jeshaun Jones had a TD, threw a TD pass and also caught a TD pass. Defensively though the Terps were a bit of a disappointment, allowing 405 yards total, including 263 yards through the air.

Bowling Green fell 58-24 at Oregon last week. Last year the Green Falcons were just 2-10 overall and 2-6 in the MAC. QB Jarret Doege was 22 of 38 for 253 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s. The Falcons looked good early, but then they fell apart in the second half. Note that the running game did produce 155 yards.

The pick: The Green Falcons actually return seven starters on the defensive side and now that they’ve gotten the high-flying Ducks out of the way, I think the unit will have an opportunity against the Terps aggressive offense (which I stated off the top will suffer a letdown after last week’s big road upset.) I’m not calling for the outright win, but I’m definitely expecting a “war.” Grab the points.

The set-up: Appalachian State comes in off a heart-breaking 45-38 OT loss at No. 10 Penn State last weekend and I think it’s going to suffer a predictable letdown here. Well, enough of one anyways for Charlotte to comfortably cover with this healthy spread. The 49ers come in off a 34-10 win over Fordham.

The teams: App State had a 451-434 total yardage edge in last week’s loss, as QB Zac Thomas was 25 of 38 for 270 yards, two TD’s and an INT, while also running for 43 yards and another score. Jalin Moore led the ground attack with 88 yards and a score.

Charlotte held a 488-287 yard advantage last week over Fordham, as QB Chris Reynolds went 13 of 20 for 267 yards and a score. Benny LeMay had 25 carries for 135 yards and two TD’s. LeMay also had three catches for 83 yards.

The pick: Appalachian State laid everything it had on the line and it still wasn’t enough against Penn State last week. I think the Mountaineers come in dejected, while the 49ers can only come in encouraged. In a much closer than expected battle, I’m grabbing the points.

The set-up: Georgia has won three straight in this series and I think the Bulldogs are going to once again pull away big on Saturday afternoon.

The teams: Georgia opened the season with a 45-0 win over FCS Austin Peay. QB Jake Fromm was 12 of 16 for 157 yards and two TD’s. Fromm only played half the game before making room for his backups. In all Georgia would post 508 yards of offense and nine different players had at least one carry, while another 11 had at least one caught pass. The defense was a strength last year and while the Week 1 win can’t be considered a true test, the unit still looked sharp in allowing just 152 yards of total offense to the Governors.

The Gamecocks were held to under 20 points in four of their eight SEC games last year. In Week 1 South Carolina looked pretty good though in its 49-15 thrashing of Coastal Carolina. Jake Bentley was 22 of 29 for 250 yards and four TD’s, while RB Rico Dowle had 105 yards on 15 carries.

The pick: Fromm had 196 yards and two TD’s in last year’s 24-10 win over South Carolina, while the defense had two INT’s. Bentley was 21 of 35 for 227 yards, a TD and two INT’s in the loss. the Gamecocks’ only victory in 12 road games against Top 5 teams dating back to the mid 90’s occurred on October 26th, 2013. I think the Bulldogs’ smothering defense proves to be too much for South Carolina in the end. Lay the points.

The set-up: I’m of course not calling for an outright upset, but after Ohio State’s 77-31 throttling of Oregon State in Week 1, I think the Buckeyes come in a bit complacent in this Week 2 “cream puff,” leaving the back door open just wide enough for the Scarlet Knights to sneak in through down the stretch.

The teams: Rutgers comes in off a 35-7 win over Texas State. QB Artur Sitkowski was a bit shaky with three INT’s, but he’d also go 20 of 30 for 205 yards and a TD. The Scarlet Knights will clearly have their hands full defensively today, but the unit looked pretty good in Week 1 anyways.

Ohio State was playing under interim Ryan Day last week and it would still go on to post 721 yards of offense. QB Dwayne Haskins was 22 of 30 for 313 yards and five TD’s, while also running for 24 yards and two more TD’s.

The pick: Clearly Ohio State is on an entirely different level than Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights are without question improved from last season’s team and they won’t be going down without a fight this afternoon. With an interesting game at TCU next weekend, I think Ohio State gets caught looking past its lowly opponent. Grab the points, play on Rutgers.

The set-up:Liberty is on the road after collecting its first FBS win in a 52-10 blow-out victory over Old Dominion last Saturday. Army though comes in “hungrier” after it fell 34-14 at Duke last Friday.

The teams: The Liberty Flames had a 595-301 yards advantage over ODU, with Stephen Calvert going 25 of 36 for 345 yards and four TD’s. Ketory Matthews had 101 yards on the ground and a TD as well.

Army was only out gained 381-365 in its Week 1 setback. Also note that it had a hefty 36:06 to 23:54 in time possession. QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. was 10 of 21 for 197 yards and a score, while Calen Holt had 54 yards on seven carries.

The pick: Beating ODU is one thing, but beating a hungry Army team at home is quite another. Last year the Golden Knights had their best season in a decade behind one of the nation’s leading run games. Until Liberty can prove it can hang with some of the more respected schools, you have to love Army to bounce back in friendly confines. And in a big way! Lay the points.

The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound this evening makes the Tribe on the “run-line” the correct call in this match-up. The Indians go with the steady Carlos Carrasco, while the home side goes with the erratic Marco Estrada.

The pitchers: Carrasco is so far 16-8 with a 3.52 ERA. He most recently comes in off his worst outing of 2018, allowing five runs off nine hits (also striking out nine) over seven innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Starts like that have been rare for Carrasco the last two years though, so there’s no need to over-react in my opinion. Note that he still owns a sharp 3.53 ERA and 187:33 K/BB over 161 innings of work this season.

Estrada is so far 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA. He most recently got blasted for a second straight start, giving up six earned run over 4.1 innings in a loss to Miami on Saturday. Estrada is limping towards the finish line now, having allowed 48 base runners over his last 23.2 innings of work.

The pick: And note that home field advantage has been anything but for Estrada this year as he’s a poor 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA in Toronto. Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -225 range. Play on the Indians on the “run line.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt this is one of them. Yanks’ ace Luis Severino is a favorite for a reason in this match-up, but I think he’s a little over-valued. In the end I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs and the reasonable price on Mike Fiers and the home side.

The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA. After an unsustainable start, Severino cooled off some over August. He’s been solid overall, although he does sport a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Fiers is so far 10-6 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. In four previous starts for the A’s Fiers had been nearly un-hittable, but he’d finally come back down to Earth in this one.

The pick: Starts like that though have been few and far between for Fiers this season, who still owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP over 146.2 innings of work. Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League home games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. Play on the A’s on the “run line.”

The set-up: It’s an important ACC match-up on Monday night between the No. 20 VT Hokies and the No. 19 FSU Seminoles.

The teams: Virginia Tech was 9-4 last year and 5-3 in in league play, which was then followed by a 30-21 loss to OK State in the Camping World Bowl. Last year the Hokies averaged 28.2 PPG and allowed just 14.8. While duplicating those suffocating defensive numbers will be difficult with many of those key players gone, the pieces are still in place for another productive campaign on that side of the ball. Josh Jackson is the man under center and he finished with a 20/9 TD/INT and had 324 rushing yards as well.

Florida State went 7-6 last year and 3-5 in ACC play, followed by a loss to Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 PPG last year and they allowed 21.2. The defense was a strength last season and it will be again this year as well with many of the starters returning. Deondre Francois is the starting QB and he missed most of last season with injury.

The pick: Francois though had a 20/8 TD:INT in 2016 and he comes in with a ton of experience. Take it for what you will as well, but VT is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog. I think FSU is the more complete team through all three phases, as questions do remain about VT’s defense. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the hill tonight that I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs on Zack Godley and the home side. The Padres turn to Bryan Mitchell.

The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA. He’s been activated from the DL to make this start. To go along with his terrible ERA, note that Mitchell also has a disturbingly poor 23:35 K/BB over 48.1 innings of work.

Godley is so far 14-7 with a 4.42 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over eight innings in a victory over the Giants on Wednesday. Godley has now posted a quality start in four of his last six outings.

The pick: Note as well that Godley has been at his best at home this year by going 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA. Look for Godley to build off his latest performance and lay the 1.5 runs with confidence. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.”

The set-up: While I obviously don’t think the Bowling Green Falcons will win this one outright, I do think that Oregon will come out a bit flat against its lowly opponent.

The teams: The Green Falcons went 2-10 in 2017, but experience at the skill positions should see Bowling Green inch closer to .500 this year. Jarret Doege is back as QB, he had 1,381 yards, 12 TD’s and just three INT’s after taking over half way through. Andrew Clair returns as the top RB, he had a respectable 725 and a 6.8 yards per carry average. The defense was a weak point last year and will be again this season, however it should be a lot better with many starters returning, including Brandon Harris, who had 92 tackles.

The Ducks have a Heisman hopeful in QB Justin Hebert, who had 1,983 yards and 15 TD’s and in eight games last year. Oregon has a ton of depth at RB, but filling the void of 5,600 rusher Royce Freeman obviously won’t be easy. Tony Brooks-James had 498 yard rushing last year. Oregon has question marks in the receiving game. It also has five projected defensive starters as sophomores.

The pick: With nothing to lose, I think an improved Bowling Green team can keep this one interesting. Or at least somewhat competitive until late in the third. Either way, grab all these points, play on the Falcons.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Bruins are a terrible 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games as well. Cincinnati has a very real shot at posting an outright upset against the “rudder-less” Bruins, but I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.

The set-up: Jeremy Pruitt is the new head coach of the Tennessee Vols and he’ll have his hands full right out of the gate with WVU up first. Note that this is a neutral site game at Charlotte and this is the first time ever that the programs have battled each other.

The teams: The Mountaineers finished the 2017 season with a 7-5 record. WVU will be led by Will Grier under center, as he returns for his senior season.

The Vols are coming off a 4-8 season. QB Keller Chryst is going to be leaned upon heavily here to bring stability to the offense. Tennessee also picked up RB’s Chance Hall and Trey Smith, who should keep opposing defenses honest. Receiver Jauan Jennings is a difference maker and I think he’ll get his opportunities against WVU. Jennings will be out to prove himself after he broke his wrist in the 2017 season opener.

The pick: This is a very early release. As game time approaches, I plan to update my analysis. However, I do indeed believe that the stage is set for a competitive affair. WVU knows how to put points on the board, but its defense was its achilles heel last year. The Mountaineers may even be caught “looking past” their lowly opponent to its difficult upcoming schedule and in this neutral site affair. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I’m banking on a tighter than expected battle. Grab the points, play on the Vols.

The set-up: I’m expecting a blowout here. The Longhorns went just 7-6 last year, but they return 14 players. Maryland has off-season issues to deal with, including the tragic death of right guard Jordan McNair due to heat stroke in June during drills. With the Terps’ minds on “other” things right now, look for Texas to break this one wide open.

The teams: Texas starts QB Sam Ehlinger, who is 6’ 3” 240 LBS. Last year he had 1,915 yards, 11 TD’s and seven picks while also running for 385 yards and two more scores. Overall Texas averaged 29.5 PPG and the defense made massive strides last season by allowing only 21.2 PPG. Overall the ‘Horns ranked second in the Big 12 and eighth in the country in rush defense. Many defensive starters return and the unit will clearly be a strength of the team this year as well.

With the death of McNair, the entire coaching staff had to be let go in the wake of the scandal for the poor Terps. Maryland was 4-8 overall last year and finished near the bottom of every category both offensively and defensively (allowed 37 PPG.)

The pick: Texas will have plenty of fans from Landover and I think the ‘Horns can smell the blood in the water. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: The Conf. USA is on the road to take on the Big 12, as the FAU Owls are big underdogs against the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday afternoon. Both teams come off big 2018’s, as FAU was 11-3, while Oklahoma went 12-2 and it lost to Georgia 54-48 in the Rose Bowl.

The teams: FAU had a great year in Lane Kiffin’s first year as coach. But even more so than the Sooners today, the Owls have a major transition period upcoming after QB Jason Driskel moved on. That means that De’Andre Johnson, Chris Robinson or Rafe Peavey will all see time under center. The rest of the offense remains loaded in talent.

Baker Mayfield is gone for the Sooners, meaning that Kyler Murray (18 of 21 for 359 yards, three TD’s and 142 rushing yards last year) becomes the “main man.” The defense was a strength last season for Oklahoma, allowing 27.1 points and it should only be better this year with many key pieces returning.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oklahoma is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FAU is a poor 0-8 ATS in its last eight against the Big 12 Conference. No Mayfield, ho problem! Look for the Sooners’ wealth of depth be just too much for the Owls to handle on opening weekend. Lay the points.

The set-up: It’s the Mountain West Conference on the road to East Lansing, Michigan to take on the Spartans. Note that this is the first ever meeting between the schools. Last year Utah State was 6-7, while Michigan State went 10-3.

The teams: Utah State finished with a losing record, but it was enough for a Bowl spot (lost 26-20 to New Mexico State in the Arizona Bowl.) Note though that the Aggies return 52 of 67 lettermen back, including nine starters on each side of the ball. Utah State averaged 30.2 PPG last season with Jordan Love going for 1,631 yards, eight TD’s and six INT’s. The defense was a weak point, but seven of the unit’s top eight tacklers return and their linebacking corp rates as second best in the Conference. In the end the defense allowed 26.9 PPG.

The Spartans averaged 24.5 PPG and allowed 20.0. QB Brian Lewerke is back and he had 2,793 yards with 20 TD’s and seven INT’s. Michigan State also returns its top three receivers. Last season the secondary was ranked 7th in the country and the defense will be a strength this year as well.

The pick: I think this sets up as a bit of a trap for Michigan State though. The Aggies come in under the radar and their high-octane offense, combined with their experienced defensive unit makes the visitors the correct call here. Grab the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. I think that Corey Kluber and the Indians on the “run line” are the correct call in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow this evening.

The pitchers: Glasnow is so far 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Thursday. Glasnow has been serviceable this season, but note that he’s a terrible 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA on the road.

Kluber is 16-7 with a 2.91 ERA. Kluber comes in off perhaps the worst start of his career, giving up five runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Royals on Saturday.

The pick: No reason to hit the panic button if you’re a Kluber fan though, who is 8-3 with a 2.24 ERA at home. Take it for what you will as well, but the Tribe are 7-2 in their last nine night home contests in which they are a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a blowout.

The set-up: This is the fourth straight season that these teams have met. Duke finished over .500 last year and it’s going to expect an even bigger step this season. Army comes in off one of its best campaigns of all time, which included a victory over Navy in the annual Army/Navy game. Regression does seem imminent though for a unit which has seen a lot of turnover.

The teams: Army also got the better of SDSU in the Armed Forces Bowl and finished 10-3 overall. Offensive leader Ahmad Bradshaw is gone though, meaning that Kelvin Hopkins will be leaned upon. Andy Davidson and Darnell Woolfolk are back and they combined for 1,439 rushing yards and 19 TD’s. Overall the defense ranked 32nd and the unit will once again be the strength of the team this season.

Duke is led by QB Daniel Jones, who had 14 TD’s and 11 picks last year (both worse than when he was a freshman). You’ll also want to keep your eyes on WR TJ Rahming, who had 65 snags for 800 yards last season.

The pick: Both teams have key playmakers on both sides of the ball to replace this year. Opening up the season on the road against a Power Five opponent is tough though and I think Army will stumble in its first test. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

The set-up: This is a match-up of the AAC’s East Division and while I’m clearly not going to call for an outright upset, I do definitely think that the Huskies can keep this one competitive.

The teams: UCF was 13-0 last year, finishing with a 34-27 victory over Auburn in the Peach Bowl. McKenzie Milton is back under center for the Knights this year, he had 4,037 yards and 37 TD’s last season. The ground game is also strong with Adrian Killins Jr. and Dredrick Snelson.

UConn was 3-9 last year, it’s seventh straight losing season. Randy Edsall has taken over as head coach and he’ll be looking for a much better showing in 2018/19 (obviously). David Pindell is now the man under center, last year he had 937 yards, four TD’s, six INT’s and 289 rushing yards with another four rushing TD’s. RB Nate Hopkins had 343 yards and seven TD’s.

The pick: Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Huskies, who have lost two in a row in the series, including a 49-24 road setback last November. UConn though returns several starters on each line and I think that’s going to make a big difference in the early going. UCF has a favorable 2018/19 schedule, with another “cream puff” in Week 2 against South Carolina State. I ultimately believe that UCF comes out a bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the hungry Huskies to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points.

The set-up: Detroit is 1-2 so far in the preseason, while Cleveland is 2-1. I think the Browns simply go through the motions today though as they look ahead to Week 1. Conversely, I believe the Lions will be looking for a little more momentum as they head into the Regular season and as such, I expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover in front of the home town crowd.

The teams: The Browns come in off a very satisfying win over the defending champion Eagles at home in Week 3. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Baker Mayfield will see the majority of snaps today. Last week he was 8 of 12 for 76 yards, while RB Nick Chubb added 46 rushing yards.

Matt Stafford won’t be suiting up for Detroit, meaning Matt Cassel and Jake Rudock will continue to battle it out for the official No. 1 backup QB spot. Cassel and Rudock though looked great in last week’s come from behind 33-30 win, combining to go 16 of 23 for 118 yards and two touchdowns.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, I think Cleveland is already “looking ahead” to the “real thing.” The Lions will look to take advantage and send the home side crowd home happy on Thursday night. Lay the points.

The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and taking the home side on the “run-line.” The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Richards, while the home side goes with David Price.

The pitchers: Richards is so far 3-7 with a 4.23 ERA. He’s coming off a couple of sub-par outings and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this season with a 1-4, 5.74 ERA.

Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.50 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless against the Tribe on Thursday, striking out seven and allowing just three hits in the commanding performance.

The pick: Price has arguably been the hottest pitcher in all of baseball over the second half, posting a tiny 1.09 ERA and an impressive 40:7 K/BB over six starts. I believe the veteran continues his end of season progression with another gem. Play on the Red Sox on the “run line.”

The set-up: Week 3 of the NFL Preseason sees the Giants hit the road to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Giants.

The teams: The Giants come in with a ton of momentum after knocking off the Lions 30-17 in Week 2. And that was with Eli Manning, Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. sitting on the sidelines. QB Davis Webb was 14 of 20 for 140 yards and a TD. Even without Barkley in the backfield the Giants’ run game looked sharp, with Wayne Gallman, Kyle Lauletta and Robert Martin all with a rushing touchdown.

The Jets are 1-1 in the preseason, most recently coming off a disheartening 15-13 road loss at Washington. QB Sam Darnold was mediocre by going 8 of 11 for 61 yards and an INT. Backup Teddy Bridgewater was 17 of 23 for 212 yards, two touchdowns and an INT.

The pick: The Giants looked good with their offensive stars on the sideline last week, but now Manning, Barkley and Odell are expected to see some snaps in Week 3. And despite Bridgewater clearly outplaying Darnold last week, the Jets are expected to instead give the rookie considerable time under center tonight. I like the veteran players of the Giants to step up early and believe that’ll be enough in the end.

The set-up: Denver travels to the Nation’s capital looking for an identity on both sides of the ball. The Redskins have many questions marks as well, but I think Washington’s superior strength at the QB position will prove to be the difference in this Week 3 preseason contest.

The teams: Denver enters off a deflating 24-23 loss to the Bears on Saturday. Backup QB Paxton Lynch was 5 of 11 for 39 yards. QB Chad Kelly was 7 of 9 for 90 yards and a TD. RB Phillip Lindsay was a bright spot though with 32 yards. Defensively the Broncos looked terrible and I think they’ll have their hands full again here in this difficult venue.

Washington comes in with momentum after a 15-13 win over the Jets in Week 2. Alex Smith was 4 of 6 for 48 yards, while the combination of Kevin Hogan and Colt McCoy would go 19 of 27 for 198 yards.

The pick: The Broncos have major QB questions. The Redskins don’t. No need to overthink this one in my opinion as I look for the home side to play like the “hungrier” team and to find a way to get the job done in the end.

The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. I think this game will be decided late or in extra innings and I’m therefore going to recommend to play the Jays on the spread. The Phiillies hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Ryan Borucki.

The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 9-8 with a 3.25 ERA. He has been decent of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Borucki is so far 2-3 with a 4.27 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Yanks, giving up six runs over one innings. While the rookie has scuffled a bit of late, note that he sports the sharp 2.52 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine night home games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Bank on a “nail-biter” and grab the 1.5 runs.

The set-up: Philadelphia is so far 0-2 in the preseason, but I think the defending champs come to play in the Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” Most recently the Eagles fell 37-20 on the road in New England in a clear statement game by the Pats. After a Week 1 win, the Browns predictably came back down to Earth in last weekend’s 19-17 loss at home to the Bills.

The teams: Nick Foles and Carson Wentz have seen limited time so far in the preseason, but each is expected to see some today for the Eagles. Foles was three off nine for 44 yards last week. A bright spot though was the play of third string QB Nate Sudfeld, who was 22 of 39 for 312 yards, posting three TD’s and one INT. Rookie Dallas Goeddert also impressed as he had three catches for 57 yards and when teamed up with TE Zach Ertz, the Eagles remain one of the top offensive threats in the league.

There’s lots to be optimistic about if you’re a Cleveland Browns fan as well though. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield was 7 of 13 for 75 yards last week and the run game posted 164 on the ground, with rookie Nick Chubb leading the way with 53 yards and a TD. The team is now loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Chemistry would seem to be the only thing standing in its way at this point, and I do indeed think it’ll be a contributing detrimental factor working against Cleveland here today as well.

The pick: Despite all of the improvements the Browns have made, they still don’t match up well with Eagles and I believe Philadelphia’s depth will in fact be the deciding factor in this Week 3 NFLX preseason contest. Take the points.

The set-up: After back-to-back victories to open the pre-season and with the all important Week 3 dress rehearsal next weekend, I think the Ravens have a letdown here and get caught “looking ahead” in this meaningless Week 2 Monday Night contest. Indianapolis though will look to carry over its momentum from a 19-17 road victory in Seattle in its first game in front of the home town crowd.

The teams: Ravens’ rookie QB Lamer Jackson was 7 of 18 for 119 yards last week, while also rushing for 21. RB Gus Edwards had 58 yards on 12 carries. Baltimore looked sharp defensively against the Rams’ backups, but I think it’ll have a much more difficult time at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Colts’ backup QB Jacoby Brissett was 6 of 8 for 35 yards last weekend. Starter Andrew Luck returned and was 6 of 9 for 64 yards. Indianapolis also looked sharp defensively, holding the Seahawks to 87 rushing yards on 22 carries. Keep your eyes on Hassan Ridgeway, who had two sacks in the victory.

The pick: Baltimore may have won ten straight preseason games and covered in nine of those, but I think that run of excellence comes to an end here. Luck will see some time at home and Brissett continues to excel. I’m banking on the home side figuring it out and getting it done. Play on the Colts.

The set-up: Ryan Borucki and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays face their ex-ace JA Happ and the Yankees in New York on Sunday afternoon and I’m expecting a competitive battle.

The pitchers: Borucki is so far 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Tuesday. Note that he’s been solid with a 2.25 ERA in all “day” games to this point.

Happ is so far 13-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Rays on Tuesday. He’s now 3-0 for the Yankees, giving up four runs over 19 frames of work.

The pick: I think it’s worthy to note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine road day games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. I expect this one to be decided late or even in extra frames. Grab the 1.5 runs for the Jays.

The set-up: Oakland comes in off 16-10 home win over Detroit in its opener and I think it goes through the motions today as it gets caught looking ahead to the all important Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” LA on the other hand comes in much more motivated after a humbling 33-7 road loss in Baltimore in Week 1.

The teams: Oakland’s offense didn’t look great last week, but it didn’t have to with the defense playing so well. Last year the Raiders were 23rd in the league in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed. Slowing down the Lions’ back-ups at home is one thing, but trying to contain a Rams team which led the league in scoring last year (29.9 PPG) is quite another obviously. The ground game was a positive on offense with 147 total yards.

It must be noted that starting QB Jared Goff didn’t play in the Week 1 setback for LA, so I’m reading absolutely nothing into the Rams’ inefficiency on the offensive side of the ball. Brandon Allen and Sean Mannion were decent, but not spectacular. The ground game looked decent with 121 yards. The defense looked horrible and clearly the unit will be looking for a better effort with a few more starters in the line-up this time around.

The pick: Connor Cook and EJ Manuel looked decent under center for the Raiders against Detroit, but in my opinion they look poised for a step back in this difficult venue. I’m expecting the Rams to come out much more focused on both sides of the ball in this one and their added motivation proves to the be the difference in my opinion. Lay the points.

The set-up: Two teams with big aspirations collide in Week 2 of the preseason at the Superdome on Friday night. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side.

The teams: Arizona comes in contented after last week’s 24-17 win in which it used a goal line stand as time expired to earn the dramatic victory. QB Josh Rosen was 6 of 13 for 41 yards. Chad Kanoff was 3 of 5 for 66 yards and a touchdown. Sam Bradford is expected to see a couple of snaps, but the Cards will be looking ahead to Week 3 here in my opinion after getting the Week 1 victory under their belts. 

The Saints come in off a win as well, pulling away for a 24-20 victory over Jacksonville. QB Tom Savage was 10 of 14 for 70 yards. In all three different players scored rushing touchdowns, including starting RB Mark Ingram. New Orleans’ defense looked sharp as well, as Jayrone Elliot led the way with 2.5 the teams six total sacks.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series. I like the Saints to take care of business at home. Lay the points.

The set-up: Miami opens its NFL preseason with two straight on the road. With the important Week 3 match-up in their first game at home in Week 3, I do expect the Dolphins to simply go through the motions tonight as they get caught looking ahead.

The teams: Miami threw everything it had at Tampa Bay in Week 1 and still came up short in the 26-24 setback. David Fales and Brock Osweiler combined to go 18 of 32 for 198 yards, no TD’s or INT’s. Ryan Tannehill went 4 of 6 for 32 yards.

The Panthers beat the Bills 28-23 on the road last week and I think they carry that momentum and confidence over into their home opener. Backup QB Garrett Gilbert was 7 of 12 for 93 yards a TD, while Taylor Heinicke was 7 of 9 for 121 yards. Cam Newton looked good in his limited time as well, going 6 of 9 for 84 yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Miami is now 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the short points.

The set-up: Both teams comes in at 0-1 SU/ATS after Week 1. The Falcons will be particularly eager to atone after their 17-0 setback at the Jets last weekend, while the Chiefs fell 17-10 at Houston.

The teams: KC QB Patrick Mahomes was five of seven for 33 yards in last week’s loss. The Chiefs would use four QB’s last week and Chad Henne was the only one of them who was able to post a TD. Henne would hit Demarcus Robinson for the major score.

The Falcons’ backups looked poor last week, but starters on both sides of the line are expected to see more time in Week 2 at home. Matt Schaub was a bright spot in the setback by going 9 of 9.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. Expect a much better effort in Week 2 from The Dirty Birds in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points.

The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Lynx are 2-1. Minnesota will look to take the season series here against the lowly Sky and get back on track after an 81-72 home loss to Seattle on Sunday. Chicago is simply playing out the season, as it’ll miss the playoffs.

The teams: Minnesota clinched a spot in the post-season after back-to-back road wins and it wasn’t able to carry that momentum over in the loss to the Storm. This would be considered its only “cream puff” left to end the season though, with a tough road match up in Connecticut on Friday, followed by a regular-season ending match-up at home against Washington. I think Maya Moore and company come to play today as they take into account their upcoming tougher schedule.

The Sky have lost three of their last four. They put up a valiant fight in Connecticut on Sunday, but still came away with the 82-75 setback. Chicago faces another bottom feeder in Indiana in a home and home series over the weekend, so the squad gets caught “looking ahead” here as well in my opinion.

The pick: I like Minnesota to come in focused on the task at hand and I look for it to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Lay the points.

The set-up: It’s hard to say anything negative about Max Scherzer, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Cubs’ newly acquired starter Cole Hamels can carry over his momentum from his debut for his new team and match his elite counterpart frame for frame. I’m banking on this one being decided late or in extra innings, meaning I’m going to grab the 1.5 runs.

The pitchers: Scherzer is so far 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to Atlanta on Tuesday.

Hamels is so far 7-9 with a 4.38 ERA. He would give up one run over six innings in a win over Kansas City in his first start for the Cubs on Monday. Over his last 11 innings of work note that he’s given up just one earned run.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 8-3 in its last 11 as a home dog in the -125 to -200 range. As I stated off the top, I think this one will be very competitive and that’s the reason why I’m taking the Cubs on the “run line.”