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NBA Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-20-21	Heat v. Lakers -3		96-94	Loss	-110	10 h 46 m	Show
The Lakers are coming off a 109-98 home loss to the Nets this past Thursday. The Lakers haven't lost two straight home games all season. I don't see the Heat pulling off the feat. Miami has failed to step up all season. In their last 11 games, the Heat have played nine games against the Wizards (twice), Hornets, Rockets, Kings (twice), Knicks (twice) and Hornets. The only time they played above .500 teams during this span were matchups against the Jazz and Clippers. The Jazz beat the Heat by 18 points in Utah and the Clippers defeated the Heat by seven points in LA. Note the Clippers were minus Kawhi Leonard and Paul George when they knocked off the Heat. In the five games previous to their last 11 games, the Heat played the Clippers, Nuggets, Nets twice and Raptors. They went 0-5 in those tough matchups. Miami is 0-6 ATS the last six times it has gone against an above .500 opponent. Miami has gotten healthy. So I believe the Heat will start improving. But I don't think this is the spot for the Heat even with Anthony Davis out for LA.
02-19-21	Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 231		132-114	Loss	-105	8 h 34 m	Show
This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams. The Suns won the first one, 111-86, on Dec. 29. The total on that game was 221 1/2. There were 197 points scored. The Pelicans won the second meeting. 123-101, on Feb. 3. That total was 223 and just barely got Over with 224 points scored. Now look at the total for this game. I'm locking in at 231 1/2 - which is 7 1/2 points higher than what it was when the teams met 16 days ago. The oddsmaker has been influenced by recent scores. The Suns lost 128-124 to the Nets on Tuesday in their last game. The Pelicans are off a 126-124 loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies, 144-113, three days ago. So I get why the oddsmaker has raised the Over/Under on these teams. I just don't agree with this big of a jump. The Suns give up the eighth-fewest points in the NBA per game at 108. They are going to be extremely motivated to clamp down defensively for the entire game after losing their concentration and blowing a big lead against the Nets. Stan Van Gundy has been unable to get the Pelicans to play consistent defense. New Orleans, however, is a below average but not terrible defensive club ranking 23rd giving up 114.5 points per game. The Pelicans also should have incentive to improve their defense after their previous performance.
02-18-21	Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 236		110-96	Win	100	8 h 34 m	Show
Neither the Raptors nor the Bucks are playing defense nearly as well as last season. Toronto gave up the fewest points per game in the NBA last season, while Milwaukee surrendered the eighth-fewest. So I understand why the oddsmaker has set such a high total. The teams just met two days ago in Milwaukee and Toronto won, 124-113. The combined 237 points just grazed above the posted number of 235 1/2. Before Tuesday's game, the Under had cashed the past six times between the Raptors and Bucks. I believe the Under goes back to cashing again in this quick turnaround matchup. It's not like Toronto and Milwaukee suddenly have stopped playing defense. They both are in the top 12 in defensive field goal percentage. The Raptors were hot on Tuesday making 51 percent of their shots from the field and 40 percent of their 3-point shots. Toronto shoots 45.3 percent from the field and 38 percent from beyond the arc. The teams shot a combined 46 free throws, too. That's what it took for Tuesday's total to go Over. The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode losers of four in a row. Their offense has been down averaging 112 points during the past three games. That's eight points fewer per game than what they average on the season. Point guard Jrue Holiday has been missed. The Bucks haven't had him the last five games due to COVID-19 protocols. Holiday is eligible to play today. If he does, he's likely to be rusty. I'm expecting an intense defensive effort by the Bucks to offset their offensive downtick. Toronto may not have point guard Kyle Lowery. He suffered an ankle injury during Tuesday's game. The Raptors did get back OG Anunoby after a 10-game absence. This is a plus for the Under. Anunoby is a versatile defender who has the ability to effectively cover a big man like Giannis Antetokounmpo, or a very good wing such as Khris Middleton.
02-17-21	Rockets v. 76ers UNDER 227.5	Top	113-118	Loss	-110	8 h 24 m	Show
Who is Shake Milton and why is he a key to this Under the total handicap? Milton is a reserve guard for the 76ers. He is instant offense. Milton averages 14 points, fourth-highest on the 76ers. He's missed the 76ers' last three games with a sprained ankle and won't play again today. Minus Milton, Philadelphia reserves averaged a meager 22 points a game the last three games. Houston is a defensive-minded club under Stephen Silas. The days of Mike D'Antoni are a distant memory. The Rockets are 23rd in scoring, but rank in the top nine in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Under is 16-7-1 in Houston's past 24 games. The Rockets have little firepower left with Christian Wood, Victor Oladipo, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker all dealing with injuries. The 76ers rank sixth in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. They are one of the better rebounding teams in the league. Joel Embiid is expected to play after missing the 76ers' Monday game against the Jazz because of back tightness. If Embiid has to miss a second straight game, Dwight Howard would replace him. That would be an unexpected bonus for the Under as Howard doesn't have an offensive game anymore and is a horrible free throw shooter. The 76ers have lost three in a row. The Rockets have dropped six straight. Expect a lot of defensive intensity as these teams try to halt their losing skids.
02-16-21	Nuggets v. Celtics -130		99-112	Win	100	8 h 38 m	Show
Right now the Celtics are just a so-so team. They are 13-13 and have lost 10 of their last 15 games, including four of their past five.The 8-17 Wizards beat the Celtics in Boston's last game two days ago. Highly underrated Marcus Smart is out for Boston with a calf injury. But I believe the frustrated Celtics show up here in this circle-the-wagons game for them. They draw the Nuggets, who are fat and happy winners of three in a row with the latest being a 17-point highly-satisfying home victory against the Lakers this past Sunday. Denver has been home the past 10 days. The Nuggets are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three road contests losing to the Kings, Lakers and Spurs by a combined 36 points. Boston won't have Smart again. But the Celtics have plenty of firepower with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. Denver has its own superstars in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. But the Nuggets are in worse shape injury-wise than Boston. They've been missing Gary Harris, PJ Dozier, and Paul Millsap. Spark plug Will Barton didn't play against the Lakers for personal reasons. These sidelined players severely limit the Nuggets' depth and flexibility forcing them to rely on untested, inexperienced players.
02-15-21	Bulls +5.5 v. Pacers		120-112	Win	100	6 h 2 m	Show
It's a mistake to underestimate the Bulls on the road. During their last nine away games, the Bulls have beaten the Trail Blazers, Mavericks, Hornets and Magic. Their five losses have come by the grand total of 15 points to the Lakers (by two points), to the Clippers (by three points), to the Thunder in overtime (by two points), to the Kings (by four points) and to the Magic (by four points). Chicago has covered the past six times it has been a road 'dog. Indiana is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. The Pacers are returning to Indianapolis following a three-game road swing that ended this past Saturday night with a victory against the Hawks. This is the Pacers' first home game in eight days so their attention could be a bit off. Indiana is 6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games since an 8-4 start. So the Pacers are far from peak form. Chicago does have injuries - Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen are all likely to miss the game. Don't forget, though, the Pacers remain without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert.
02-14-21	Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 217	Top	105-122	Loss	-105	13 h 22 m	Show
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are superstars. But what helps make them such mega-stars is their all-around games. They are more than scoring machines. Both are excellent defenders and a big reason why the Lakers rank No. 2 defensively in the NBA giving up 105.2 points a game. After five straight home games, the Lakers are on the road. The Under has won in 12 of the Lakers' 14 road games this season. Denver is an above average defensive team ranking 12th giving up 111.2 points. The Nuggets have held their last two opponents, Cleveland and Oklahoma City, to 95 points apiece. Nuggets coach Michael Malone knows his team must have defensive intensity to beat the Lakers. I expect the Nuggets to have that after the Lakers defeated them in the Western Conference Finals last season and in the first meeting this season, 114-93, in LA on Feb. 4. The Nuggets led the Lakers at halftime in their meeting 10 days ago. But the Lakers stepped up their game in the second half to win by 21 points. The combined 207 points went Under the posted total of 217 by 10 points. The Nuggets should have learned from that recent loss that they must play better transition defense while staying motivated the entire game. I don't look for the Lakers to attack up-tempo. This is their fifth game in nine days with three of their past four games going into overtime. What I am expecting is playoff-type defense and intensity from both teams in this nationally televised (ESPN) matchup.
02-13-21	Rockets -103 v. Knicks		99-121	Loss	-103	10 h 27 m	Show
The Rockets are in stop-the-pain mode losers of four games in a row. Those losses have come to the Spurs, Hornets on the road, Pelicans on the road and Heat in which Houston blew a 13-point lead. I don't consider the Knicks better than any of those teams. However, the 12-15 Knicks definitely are improved under Tom Thibodeau. The Rockets aren't going to have Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo. P.J. Tucker probably isn't going to play either. Still, the Rockets aren't lacking in talent with John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Knicks dominated inside in beating the Wizards, 109-91, on the road Friday night. The Wizards rested Bradley Beal. The 6-17 Wizards rank last defensively surrendering 120.3 points. The Knicks scoring 109 points isn't impressive. New York ranks last in scoring, in fact, at 102.7 points per game. Houston averages seven points more per game. Cousins' matchup became a lot easier when Knicks center Mitchell Robinson suffered a broken hand against Washington. That's a tough blow for the Knicks, who also are playing without rest here.
02-12-21	Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls		125-106	Win	100	16 h 35 m	Show
Kudos to the Bulls for knocking off the hot Pelicans, 129-116, at home this past Wednesday. Chicago accomplished the feat by draining a franchise-best 25 3-pointers. Zach LaVine and Coby White led the way scoring a combined 76 points. I don't see the Bulls repeating their "A" level performance against the Clippers, an elite team that I rank three levels higher than Chicago. The question that needs to be answered is can the Clippers cover this mid-sized road number? They didn't cover an 8 1/2-point road spread in their last game, a 119-112 win against the Timberwolves two days ago. The Clippers started flat against Minnesota trailing by 13 points in the first half. I expect a better performance from the Clippers. LA also won't be taking Chicago lightly. The Bulls nearly upset the Clippers in the first meeting, losing 130-127 as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 10. The Bulls made an incredible 61 percent of their field goals in that game while the Clippers connected on 48.9 percent. Still, the Clippers still won by three points. Chicago is playing short-handed. Out are Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. Otto Porter Jr. missed the Pelicans' game with a back injury. So he may not play either. LaVine and White will have to step up in a big way again. Paul George is out for the Clippers with a toe injury. However, LA did get back lockdown defender guard Patrick Beverley against the Timberwolves. White shoots just 40.3 percent from the field. LaVine is a great scorer, but he may be the worst defensive guard in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard is playing at a high level for the Clippers. So whatever LaVine gets he's likely to give back even more. The Clippers rank fifth defensively and are ninth in 3-point defense. Chicago ranks 27th defensively. A motivated Clippers team should beat a short-handed Bulls team by double-digits.
02-11-21	Pacers -3 v. Pistons	Top	111-95	Win	100	18 h 40 m	Show
Returning to Detroit after going 0-4 on their West Coast trip, the Pistons upset the Nets, 122-111, at home this past Tuesday. The Pistons are capable of pulling off a surprise like this. Just ask the Lakers. But by no means are the Pistons a good team. They have yet to win consecutive games this season. I don't see it happening today against the Pacers either. Indiana is at low ebb. The Pacers have dropped a season-high four games in a row. They have been held to their lowest scoring performances in each of their last two games. Brooklyn just defeated Indiana, 104-94, at home Wednesday night. Let's look, though, at who the Pacers have lost to during their skid. They were beaten by the Bucks, the Pelicans - who were playing their basketball of the season with four victories in a row until losing to the Bulls on Wednesday - the Jazz, who are the hottest team in the NBA, and the Nets of James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Now the Pacers are dropping way down in class meeting the Pistons. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers were idle this past Monday and Tuesday before losing to the Nets last night. So there isn't a fatigue factor. Indiana also is 4-1 ATS the last five times on the second of back-to-back games. The Pacers have excelled in this spot going 11-3-1 ATS the past 15 times as a road favorite.
02-10-21	Bucks v. Suns +4.5	Top	124-125	Win	100	13 h 31 m	Show
The Suns showed their improvement last season going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble. The lone team to do that during the rebooted season. Phoenix's improvement has carried into this season. The Suns are 14-9 and have a real shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Phoenix has the fourth-ranked defense in the league, emerging superstar Devin Booker and underrated team depth. This is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) home game for the Suns, who will be allowing around 1,500 fans into their arena. The Suns have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been underdogs. This will be Booker's sixth game back following a hamstring injury. He's back in top form both scoring and dishing off. The Suns obviously are going to be sky-high for this matchup. Milwaukee is riding a season-best five-game win streak. This handicap isn't a fade on the Bucks. It's far more about the Suns. But Milwaukee has to be a little fat and happy after dismantling the Nuggets, 125-112, at Denver this past Monday to go 3-0 on its current six-game road swing. This also marks the Bucks' fourth game in six days. I'm liking the Suns to cover, if not win, with the expectation they won't have Chris Paul. He missed the Suns' last game, a 119-113 home win against the Cavaliers, this past Monday with a hamstring injury. E'Twaun Moore and Booker stepped up nicely in Paul's absence. The Bucks also are likely to be missing their best point guard with Jrue Holiday in COVID-19 protocol. Word is that Holiday has tested positive for COVID-19. Phoenix is 6-1 in its last seven games and has defeated the Bucks in three of the past four meetings.
02-09-21	Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 226.5		101-130	Loss	-110	8 h 30 m	Show
These teams just saw each other recently with the Rockets beating the Pelicans, 126-112, in New Orleans on Jan. 30. Both coaches stress defense so look for some tweaks and defensive adjustments this time around. There's also something else different. The Rockets had Christian Wood and Victor Oladpio in that victory. They led Houston to the win by combining to score 47 points while shooting a combined 18-for-27 from the field and 4 of 4 from the foul line. Neither is going to play today. Wood is out with an ankle injury and the Rockets have announced that Oladipo is going to be rested. The Rockets played last night, losing to Charlotte, 119-94, on the road. This marks Houston's third game in four days and second in two days so the Rockets aren't likely to push pace. Before surrendering 119 points to the Hornets, the Rockets had held their previous nine opponents to an average of 103.8 points. That would rank first in defense if computed during the entire season. New Orleans has been playing better defense. The Pelicans have held their last three foes to an average of 107.6 points a game, which would rank fifth if that were their average for the entire season.
02-08-21	Cavs +7.5 v. Suns	Top	113-119	Win	100	10 h 29 m	Show
It's not so much who you play, but when you play them. That's a major handicap when dealing with the NBA regular season. It's a reason why I'm backing the underdog Cavaliers, who are 1-5 in their last six games and coming off three blowout home losses while the Suns are 5-1 in their last six games. Phoenix has opened its current seven-game homestand with victories against the Pistons and Celtics on Sunday. Following this game, the Suns host the Bucks on Wednesday and then 76ers on Saturday. The Suns are fat and happy right now with a pair of far more challenging and marquee matchups on deck. Cleveland, though, is improved. The Cavaliers have talent with Andre Drummond and an underrated backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Yes, the Cavs were blown out at home in their last three games. Two of those losses came to the Bucks and the other came against the Clippers, who had both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in their lineup. Those are "A" level opponents. Phoenix isn't in that class. The Cavaliers want to begin again and this is their chance, the start of a five-game West Coast trip. Cleveland ranks ninth defensively, but 29th in scoring averaging 103.6. The Suns, however, are averaging only 105.5 points in regulation during their past seven games. That's fewer than two points more per game than Cleveland. Phoenix also carries a fatigue rating. This is the Suns' fourth game in six days and second in two days.
02-06-21	Pistons +14 v. Lakers		129-135	Win	100	9 h 7 m	Show
It was 10 days ago that the Pistons upset the Lakers, 107-92, as 7-point home 'dogs. Now it's the Lakers' turn to return the favor and this time they have Anthony Davis, who missed the earlier Pistons game. But having Davis and home-court isn't worth seven extra points.The oddsmaker didn't think so opening this game Lakers minus 13. Early marketplace activity has put the Lakers up to minus 14. Yes, this is a revenge spot. But the Lakers aren't some up-and-coming team out to settle personal grudges. They followed up a grueling 5-2 road trip with an impressive home victory against the Nuggets on Thursday night. LA has played well this season, but its goal is to peak when the playoffs come round just like last season. The Lakers will take care of business here, but they have no need to go all out to bury the Pistons, who they won't see again. Note that the Lakers are 1-5 ATS the past six times versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. After upsetting the Lakers, the Pistons took to the road. This is the finale of a four-game West Coast trip that has not gone well. Detroit is 0-3 on their its losing by 27 points to the Warriors, by 12 to the red-hot Jazz and by 17 to the much-improved Suns. So this is a stop-the-pain game for the Pistons, who should play the Lakers with more confidence than most teams.
02-06-21	Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans		109-118	Loss	-106	8 h 19 m	Show
Memphis had won and covered seven in a row until its last two games, losses to the Rockets and Pacers. So the Grizzlies are pointing to this matchup especially JaMorant, who treats this opponent with extra special motivation because Zion Williamson was drafted ahead of him. The timing is good for Memphis because it gets back big man Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen to help its backcourt depth. Valanciunas' return is huge because the Pelicans are dangerous inside with Williamson and Steven Adams. New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in points in the paint. The Grizzlies have won six of their eight road contests, while the Pelicans are 5-5 at home. New Orleans is coming off consecutive victories against the Suns followed by an upset victory at Indiana, 114-113, two days ago. The Pelicans have not won three games in a row all season. They also are 1-7 ATS the last eight times as a home favorite.
02-06-21	Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 223.5	Top	111-106	Win	100	11 h 37 m	Show
This total isn't high enough even if both teams weren't missing their top low-post scorers. San Antonio is averaging 110.8 pts in its last five games. The Spurs are a better defensive team than offensive team. They also are without LaMarcus Aldridge. That means big minutes for Jakob Proeltl, an Under bettor's delight - a shot-blocker with a limited offensive game and a terrible free throw shooter. The Rockets have become a defensive team-first under Stephen Silas. Houston ranks in the top-six in many of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Houston has surrendered just 103 points per game during its last eight games. The Rockets are without their leading scorer, Christian Wood. Not only was Wood averaging 22 points, but he was shooting 55.8 percent from the field. The team's met twice in mid-January. Both games went Under with a combined scoring total of 214 and 194 in those games.
02-05-21	Jazz v. Hornets +8.5		138-121	Loss	-115	10 h 33 m	Show
Early marketplace activity has been on Utah. It's understandable considering the Jazz have won 13 of their last 14 and just rolled past the Hawks, 112-91, on Thursday to open their 3-game road trip. This looms as a flat spot, though, for the Jazz. They have a tougher game against the Pacers on deck Sunday. After that game, Utah goes home to play the Celtics and Bucks. This also mark's Utah's third game in four days and fifth matchup in eight days. The Hornets are a spunky team at best in an underdog role where they are 20-7-2 (74 percent) the past 29 times taking points. This includes a money-banking 9-2-1 ATS mark as a home 'dog. Charlotte likely won't have starting power forward P.J. Washington again. He's out with a foot injury. But underrated big man Cody Zeller is back and the Hornets also expect to have shooting guard Terry Rozier in the lineup after he missed time with an ankle injury. The Jazz have been hot from 3-point range. The Hornets have an above average 3-point defense to counter that.
02-05-21	Wizards +6.5 v. Heat		95-122	Loss	-101	8 h 27 m	Show
I realize the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat are much better than their 7-14 record. By the same token, though, the Wizards are better than their 5-13 record now that they finally are at full strength. Both teams have to deal with injuries and extensive COVID-19 issues. Miami, however, can not be laying this many points to an opponent who is better than perceived at this stage of their season right now. The Heat are 1-7 in their last eight games. They just were outplayed by the Wizards in a 103-100 loss as 9-point home favorites this past Wednesday. Russell Westbrook didn't even play in that game. Westbrook was rested. He's back in action for this one teaming up with Bradley Beal, who torched Miami for 32 points two days ago. The Wizards are a far more respectable team with Davis Bertans, Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura all back in the rotation. The Heat have several key players rounding into shape from injuries and sickness, including Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Miami is 0-7-1 ATS the last eight times when favored.
02-04-21	Nuggets +5 v. Lakers		93-114	Loss	-108	12 h 51 m	Show
As great as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are, nobody has been playing as well as Denver big man Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets ended the Jazz's 11-game win streak in their last game. That was back on Sunday. So the Nuggets have had ample rest and preparation time. Denver has been pointing to this matchup, the first time the Nuggets are playing the Lakers after LA beat them in the conference finals. This is the Lakers' first home game following a seven-game road trip that concluded with a 107-99 victory against the Hawks this past Monday. So it's not an ideal spot for the Lakers. The Lakers are 16-6, but they are far from being in peak form. They are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. During this home span the Lakers lost 115-113 to the Warriors, defeated the Pelicans, 112-95, nipped the Bulls, 117-115, lost to the Spurs, 118-109, and fell to the Trail Blazers, 115-107.
02-03-21	Wolves v. Spurs -8		108-111	Loss	-110	12 h 35 m	Show
I have to believe Gregg Popovich is going to have the Spurs ultra competitive in this spot after San Antonio lost two straight to the Grizzlies, both at home. The Spurs' 133-102 loss to Memphis this past Monday was their most lopsided of the season. Minnesota is 2-8 in its last 10 games. The Timberwolves' lone victories during this span were against the short-handed Cavaliers and Pelicans. Minnesota has lost eight consecutive road games. Karl-Anthony Towns has missed the past nine games. The Timberwolves rarely have been competitive without him. Minnesota has lost by 12 or more points during four of its last five defeats. The Spurs aren't going to have LeMarcus Aldridge. I'm fine with that. Aldridge isn't the All-Star of past seasons. The absence of Aldridge is more than offset with the Timberwolves again being without Towns and guard Jarret Culver, a key member of their rotation. The Timberwolves are in action for the fourth time in six days. San Antonio won't play again until Saturday against the Rockets in Houston. Another reason the Spurs shouldn't be holding anything back. Before losing two in a row to the Grizzlies, the Spurs had defeated the Celtics and Nuggets in their previous home games. So the Spurs are capable of dispatching the Timberwolves by double-digits.
02-02-21	Blazers +2 v. Wizards		132-121	Win	100	12 h 43 m	Show
The Wizards are coming off their biggest win of the season beating the Nets, 149-146, on Sunday after trailing by 18 points. The Wizards aren't used to winning. They are 4-12. It's a rare letdown spot for the Wizards. Washington has been favored four times. The Wizards have lost three of those times straight-up. Portland is off its worst loss of the season, 134-106, to the host Bucks on Monday. The timing was bad for the Trail Blazers. They caught the Bucks returning home off consecutive road losses to the Pelicans and Hornets. Now the timing is bad for Washington, which has the worst defense in the NBA. The Trail Blazers have covered six of their nine away contests this season. They also have defeated the Wizards during each of the last three meetings.
02-01-21	Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 224.5		136-106	Loss	-110	17 h 48 m	Show
James Harden is gone. Mike D'Antoni isn't the coach. The Rockets have a new identity these days. Their offense is a work-in-progress and their coach, Stephen Silas, stresses defense first. Quite a difference from who they used to be. Houston hasn't reached 108 points in four of its last six games. However, the Rockets' defense has stepped way up giving up an average of 102.2 points in their last five games. That would rank No. 1 in the NBA if computed for the entire season. Oklahoma City also is dealing with a new identity. The Thunder have scored 106 or fewer points in four of their last six games. So why do we have a total this large? The oddsmaker didn't miss the Thunder's last game. That was a 147-125 home loss to the Nets this past Friday. The Nets, though, lead the NBA in scoring at 122 points a game while ranking 27th defensively. Aside from being Harden's last team, the Nets have nothing in common with the Rockets. The Rockets should be able to clamp down on the Thunder, who have been missing injured veteran point guard George Hill. Oklahoma City ranks 25th in scoring. The Thunder should have great motivation to clamp down on the Rockets following their worst defensive game of the season. They've had three days to rest and prepare.
01-31-21	Cavs -3 v. Wolves	Top	104-109	Loss	-114	18 h 31 m	Show
The Timberwolves have shown they can't function without their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. He's going to miss his eighth straight game here due to COVID-19 protocols. Minnesota is 2-14 in its last 16 games and 2-6 ATS in its past eight contests. There's a chance the Timberwolves could be minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell, too. He's been dealing with a bruised quad. Russell played in the Timberwolves' 118-94 home loss to the 76ers, but shot just 3-of-11 from the floor in 25 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves a fade in their present state, but the buy sign is on the Cavaliers following their 102-81 loss to the Knicks this past Friday. That was the Cavaliers' second humiliating road loss in a row. They were beaten by 38 points by the Celtics in their previous away game one week ago. The Cavaliers want to make a road statement here. They have the perfect patsy in which to make that statement. It helps, too, the Cavaliers finally are at full strength with Darius Garland and Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup. Andre Drummond leads the NBA in rebounding and Collin Sexton is the league's 16th-leading scorer averaging 24.6 points. The Cavaliers have underrated talent. Cleveland has covered during five of its last six visits to Minnesota.
01-30-21	Pistons v. Warriors -5.5	Top	91-118	Win	100	19 h 30 m	Show
The Warriors beat the Pistons in Detroit, 116-106, back on Dec. 29 achieving the victory despite not having Draymond Green, their second-best player. Golden State has improved since then with Green back in the lineup going 8-7 since defeating Detroit. The Pistons couldn't stop Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, who combined for 58 points in the win. Curry leads the NBA in 3-pointers. The Pistons rank 26th in 3-point defense. So Curry and Wiggins could be in line for big games again. Detroit upset both the 76ers and Lakers this week. Both victories came at home. The Pistons caught the 76ers minus Joel Embiid and the Lakers without Anthony Davis. This isn't to downplay the Pistons' upset wins. They were impressive. The 107-92 smashing of the Lakers came just two days ago. I doubt the Pistons play nearly that well in this spot following that hugely-satisfying home win. Detroit has lost its past three road games, including its last one to the Cavaliers, 122-107, this past Wednesday. This marks Detroit's fourth game in six days. The Warriors should be motivated after a flat performance in a 114-93 road loss to the Suns this past Thursday. Golden State has covered the past five times hosting an opponent that has a losing road record.
01-29-21	Pacers v. Hornets +3.5		105-108	Win	100	8 h 30 m	Show
I quickly glance past those rare sports when the Hornets are favored. But when they are underdogs, I take notice. Charlotte is one of those NBA teams nobody cares about, or respects, but can earn you money in the right spot. That spot is taking points. They are 14-5-1 ATS the past 20 times as underdogs. This is short revenge for the Hornets. They lost 116-106 as 3-point home 'dogs to the Pacers two days ago. Charlotte shot 41 percent from the floor in that defeat. Indiana made 51 percent of its field goals. Doug McDermott had a monster game for Indiana shooting 12-of-22 from the field while scoring 28 points. That was unexpected. McDermott averages 13 points and is a career 46.7 percent shooter from the floor.
01-29-21	Hawks v. Wizards +4		116-100	Loss	-109	7 h 30 m	Show
I don't trust the Hawks as road favorites. The Wizards finally are getting up to speed physically with Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura and Moritz Wagner all coming off COVID-19 protocols. Russell Westbrook also is ready after being rested during the Wizards' 124-106 road loss to the Pelicans this past Wednesday. Star guard Bradley Beal expressed his disappointment and anger with that defeat, which was Washington's third loss in a row and dropped its record to 3-11. That's the worst mark in the NBA and an embarrassment for the Wizards. I'm expecting an all-out effort from the Wizards, who haven't hosted a game since Jan. 11 when they upset the Suns, 128-107. Hachimura is an underrated key for Washington. The Wizards are 3-3 in games he has played. The Hawks just got through playing the Bucks, beating the Clippers at home and taking the Nets to overtime in a home loss this past Wednesday. After this road contest, the Hawks return home to take on the Lakers in their biggest Western Conference opponent matchup. The Hawks aren't nearly good enough to cover this spread if they don't produce a solid game, or if they suffer a letdown. Historically, Atlanta has not been good in this spot going 5-12-2 ATS the last 19 times when facing a foe with a winning percentage below .400.
01-27-21	Nets v. Hawks UNDER 239	Top	132-128	Loss	-109	7 h 24 m	Show
This is a big totals number. Perhaps, on the surface, it may be justified. But a lot has to go right for the Over to cash. I believe the marketplace, whose early money has been on the Over, is wrong to bet this one up. James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are learning to play together. Harden and Irving are still rounding into shape. There were just 183 points scored in the Nets' last game, a 98-85 win against the Heat two days ago. The Heat did have numerous people out, including Jimmy Butler. Still, holding any NBA team to 85 points is impressive. There were 207 points produced in the Hawks' last game, a 108-99 Atlanta victory against the Clippers last night. LA was minus Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Hawks, though, have been in excellent defensive form recently thanks to big men Clint Capela and John Collins. If you discount a 129-115 loss to the Bucks, the Hawks have held their last four opponents to an average of 100 points. Atlanta ranks No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage - so Harden could be in for a rough shooting night - and has the third-best defensive field goal percentage in the league.
01-26-21	Wizards v. Rockets -3.5		88-107	Win	100	6 h 24 m	Show
The Rockets are far from elite since they no longer have James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul. They may not even make the playoffs. But they still are a couple of levels higher than the Wizards especially given Washington's COVID-19 troubles. This is just the rusty Wizards' second game since Jan. 11 because of COVID issues. They were blown out by the Spurs, 121-101, two days ago in their last game. The 3-9 Wizards could be down four rotation players. They have new faces and haven't had nearly the needed practice time. This is a big motivation game for John Wall against his former team. He's not going to let the Rockets get lazy in this matchup. DeMarcus Cousins is coming off a monster 28-point, 17-rebound game against the Mavericks in a 133-108 victory. That was on Saturday. So the Rockets should be rested and prepared. It's an added bonus if Christian Wood is able to play for Houston. He's questionable with an ankle injury.
01-25-21	Lakers v. Cavs +10.5		115-108	Win	100	11 h 29 m	Show
The Lakers haven't let their championship get to their heads. They are 13-4, tied with the Clippers for the best record in the NBA. LA has yet to lose on the road in nine away games. But this is the right spot to step in against the Lakers with the improved Cavaliers. LA is in the third game of a seven-game road swing. The Lakers beat the Bucks, 113-106, this past Thursday and followed that up with a 101-90 victory against the Bulls this past Saturday. Up next for the Lakers is a major challenge on Wednesday - the 76ers. They have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 12-5. So the Lakers are in-between a letdown spot and a look-ahead spot - all while laying double-digits. The Cavaliers suffered their own letdown on Sunday getting blasted, 141-103, by the Celtics in Boston. Cleveland entered that matchup having won three in a row, including consecutive victories against James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the rest of the Nets. Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff pulled his starters early in the Boston debacle. None of the Cavaliers' key players - Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman - logged more than 18 minutes in the Celtics loss. They should be highly motivated for this matchup, especially welcoming LeBron James back to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 5-2 SU and ATS as home 'dogs this season. They are 8-8 on the season, yet hold little respect in the marketplace. They've upset the Nets twice and the 76ers. They can hang at home against the Lakers.
01-24-21	Cavs v. Celtics -5.5		103-141	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Nice job so far by J.B. Bickerstaff making the Cavaliers competitive this season. I will really tip my hat to Bickerstaff, though, if his Cavaliers can hang close in this matchup. Cleveland is riding high with a season-best three-game win streak with the last two victories coming against the Nets. Boston, on the other hand, is in circle-the-wagons mode with a season-worst three-game losing streak. This losing streak has coincided with the absence of Jayson Tatum due to COVID-19. There's a chance Boston gets Tatum back for this game. But if that doesn't happen, I still like the Celtics to cover this spread. Zero chance Boston takes Cleveland for granted even though it has won the past eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS the past eight times hosting the Cavaliers. There's a great deal of urgency for the Celtics not only to halt their losing skid, but also knowing they play seven of their next eight games on the road, including five games on the West Coast.
01-23-21	76ers v. Pistons +7		114-110	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
Impressive. That's the word coming to mind in reviewing how the 76ers beat the Celtics this past Wednesday and Friday. Both of those 76ers' victories came in Philadelphia. Now the 76ers travel to Detroit to face the Pistons in an obvious letdown spot. Philadelphia is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The 76ers were 12-26 SU on the road last season. They are 2-4 SU and ATS away from home this season with road losses to the Grizzlies and Hawks in their past two away games. The Pistons are hungry for a victory after blowing a 17-point lead against the Hawks this past Wednesday in an overtime loss and then falling by one point, 103-102, to the Rockets this past Friday. Detroit is capable of pulling the straight-up upset having already defeated the Heat, Celtics and much-improved Suns this season. This is the 76ers' third game in four days. So they might choose to rest, or limit, the minutes of superstar center Joel Embiid. Philadelphia is 15-34-2 (31 percent) in its last 51 away contests.
01-22-21	Thunder +13.5 v. Clippers		106-120	Loss	-108	11 h 46 m	Show
The Clippers are on a great roll winning five in a row with the last three coming in blowout fashion - victories by at least 19 points. It's difficult for the Clippers to keep doing that especially when teams seem to take rest stops in pacing themselves for the long season and playoffs. Oklahoma City is at its best in this role as a road 'dog. The Thunder are 22-8 the past 30 times taking points on the road. This includes a 5-2 ATS mark in that role this season with straight-up victories versus the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans. The Thunder are off a terrible performance in a 119-101 road loss to Denver, however. That was on Tuesday. So they've had two full days to prepare for this one and get their respect back. The Thunder should have plenty of energy since this is only their third game in eight days. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder's best player. He'll have added motivation going against the Clippers, his former team.
01-22-21	Heat v. Raptors -2.5		81-101	Win	100	9 h 32 m	Show
I'm going to play the Zig/Zag theory here after the Heat snapped Toronto's three-game winning streak with a 111-102 win two days ago. Miami has yet to string two straight covers together this season. They are 0-6 ATS following a point spread cover. The Raptors have short revenge and they face two games on the road against the Pacers after this one. The Heat remain short-handed minus Jimmy Butler, defensive ace Avery Bradley and reserve big man Meyers Leonard. They also could be without Tyler Herro, who has been bothered by a neck injury.
01-22-21	Celtics +5 v. 76ers		110-122	Loss	-106	8 h 26 m	Show
I like the Celtics in this spot even if Jayson Tatum remains out due to COVID-19 protocols. It's a nice bonus if he's able to play. This is a monster rivalry. So my inclination is to grab the points. That's especially so in the case of the Celtics, who are 22-7 ATS the past 29 times as underdogs. Boston is this big of a 'dog because the 76ers are home and just defeated the Celtics, 117-109, this past Wednesday. The 76ers made 36 of 45 free throws in that game. Boston was 13 of 20 from the foul line. The Celtics were not happy with that free throw disparity. Joel Embiid shot more free throws than Boston did as a team. Embiid had a monster performance with 42 points and 10 rebounds. He's a great player. But the Celtics have the center depth and astute coaching of Brad Stevens to make adjustments. One bright spot for Boston in the loss to the 76ers was Kemba Walker looking good in his second game back from a knee injury. He scored 19 points and had good leg movement.
01-20-21	Kings v. Clippers OVER 231.5	Top	96-115	Loss	-110	19 h 57 m	Show
The Kings were a below average defensive team last season, but they weren't a defensive disaster. Sacramento coach Luke Walton decided to make some defensive adjustments this season. The result is the Kings rank last defensively. They have allowed 122 or more points in each of their last eight games. Sacramento is a top-nine scoring team. That combination of good offense/horrendous defense makes the Kings a dead-nuts Over team as long as Walton stays their coach and the oddsmaker is slow to fully adjust. The Over has won in nine of the Kings' last 11 games. There's no reason to go against that pertinent trend in this matchup. The Clippers are averaging 132.3 points in their last three games. That's their best scoring stretch of the season. The teams just met this past Friday and the Clippers won, 138-100, for a total of 238 points.
01-20-21	Nets v. Cavs +10.5		135-147	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
There is a strong possibility the Nets will have their three superstars - James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving - playing together for the first time when they meet the Cavaliers today. Consider two things before jumping to the conclusion that the Nets are going to destroy the Cavaliers. No. 1: Irving hasn't played in 15 days. He's going to be rusty. Also it takes time for three players of that magnitude to get comfortable with each other on the court. This is what Nets coach Steve Nash said about that, "It's hard to build chemistry without playing, and we're not playing in practice. So the chemistry is going to be formed on the floor during games." Irving may be on a minutes restriction. It's doubtful those three mega stars are playing if Brooklyn does build a big lead leaving the back-door open for Cleveland. The teams meet again on Friday. No. 2: It's not getting nearly the publicity of Irving's return, but the Cavaliers are expecting to get back their injured starting backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Both went through full practice on Monday. Reserve guard Damyean Dotson has done a credible job filling in. Sexton is one of the more underrated players in the league averaging 25 points. Center Jarrett Allen and veteran Taurean Prince are set to make their Cleveland debuts. They were part of the Harden trade. Allen is having a good season averaging 11.2 points and 10.4 rebounds. He joins Andre Drummond, who is averaging a career-best 19.3 points and 15.8 rebounds. There's also the situational factor to consider. The Nets are in a letdown spot after a dramatic nationally televised two-point victory against the Bucks two nights ago. The Nets were underdogs against the Bucks. Brooklyn is 2-6 ATS the past eight times it has been favored.
01-19-21	Thunder +10 v. Nuggets		101-119	Loss	-104	7 h 48 m	Show
The Nuggets have captured the Northwest Division each of the past two seasons. They reached the Western Conference finals last season. But Denver is off to a 6-7 start this season as their roster composition is much different from last year. The Nuggets also are missing a key cog with breakout star Michael Porter sidelined because of COVID-19 protocols. So right now the Nuggets shouldn't be laying double-digits to a feisty underdog such as Oklahoma City. The Thunder have excelled in this exact role - road 'dogs. Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS the past 29 times taking road points for a winning percentage of 76 percent. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS as away 'dogs this season with straight-up victories against the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans in this role. The Thunder should be well-rested and prepared having last played this past Friday as their Sunday game against the 76ers was postponed due to contact tracing issues with Philadelphia.
01-18-21	Bucks -122 v. Nets	Top	123-125	Loss	-122	14 h 5 m	Show
Perhaps by the end of the season, the Nets will be the best team in the Eastern Conference. But right now the Bucks are the superior club. Milwaukee is 7-1 in its last eight games, averaging 119 points a game during this span. James Harden will be playing just his second game as a Net. He played 40 minutes and had a triple-double against the Magic on Saturday. Harden hadn't played in four days prior to that game. We'll see what kind of shape he's in stepping way up in class against the Bucks with his new team. The 8-6 Nets aren't expected to have Kyrie Irving for a seventh straight game. The Nets had to trade starting center Jarrett Allen and key reserve Caris LeVert to get Harden. Their center spot is now manned by over-the-hill DeAndre Jordan, who contributes virtually no scoring. The Bucks have been the best regular-season team for the past two seasons and they have the best record in the Eastern Conference this season.They average more points than the Nets and give up four fewer points per game than Brooklyn. Milwaukee has beaten the Nets eight straight times in Brooklyn.
01-17-21	Pelicans v. Kings OVER 226.5		128-123	Win	101	8 h 29 m	Show
Both Pelicans coach Stan Van Gundy and Kings coach Luke Walton put in new defenses for their respective teams this season. New Orleans caught a few opponents off-guard with that early on, but the Pelicans are giving up an average of 112.6 points in regulation during their last five games. That figure would rank them in the bottom 10 if computed during the entire season. Sacramento is 11th in the league in scoring. The Kings always had backcourt scorers, but now they're getting added points from big man Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley Jr. The Kings have scored 123 or more points in four of their last six games. Walton's new defensive approach has been a disaster. The Kings are surrendering an average of 131.7 points during their last seven games, giving up 122 or more points in each of those games. So it's not a surprise Sacramento ranks last in the NBA in points allowed per game. The Pelicans have the firepower to take advantage with Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Eric Bledsoe.
01-16-21	Magic +9 v. Nets		115-122	Win	100	5 h 54 m	Show
There's not a lot to like about Orlando right now. The Magic have lost four in a row, losing by an average margin of 26 points during this span. But I'm going to hold my nose and step in with the Magic taking this many points against what has to be a distracted Nets team. Between Kyrie Irving doing his space cadet routine again and James Harden's arrival, the Nets have been a major publicity item. Harden is expected to make his Nets debut here. He won't have Irving, who is out due to personal reasons. Harden won't know his new teammates, will be rusty and likely won't play a ton of minutes especially with the Nets hosting the Bucks in their next game on Monday. Prices on the Nets are up with Harden joining the squad. Everything is about Harden, but the Nets lost two key pieces in the multi-team trade to acquire hime. Caris LeVert, their best bench player and a legitimate quality starter, was sent to the Pacers. Jarrett Allen, their starting center, was set to the Cavaliers. Allen was emerging as a force in the middle. Now the Nets' lone big man is over-the-hill DeAndre Jordan. Orlando's strength is its two big men, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. They can pound the Nets inside. The Magic have covered five of the last six times against the Nets and have been a money-maker on the road going 13-6-1 (68 percent) during their past 20 away contests.
01-15-21	Hawks +6 v. Jazz		92-116	Loss	-105	9 h 50 m	Show
The Hawks have a talented roster with six good players. They are not a bottom-feeder. Trae Young could be heating up after hitting 9 of 19 shots from the floor in helping lead the Hawks past the 76ers, 112-94, at home this past Monday. That victory halted a four-game Atlanta losing streak and should give the Hawks a boost. Atlanta was supposed to play the Suns on the road two days ago. That game was postponed. So the Hawks will be well rested. They catch the Jazz playing at home for the first time in two weeks. The Jazz finished a successful six-game, 10-day road trip going 4-2 after blowing out the undermanned Cavaliers, 117-87, this past Tuesday. I'm not sure how much concentration and focus Utah will have because this is a weird scheduling spot. The Jazz have to fly to Denver for a Sunday matchup before coming back home to play the next six times. Utah is terrible as a home favorite going 3-13-2 ATS the past 18 times in that role. That includes an 0-2 SU, ATS mark in that role this season with losses to the Timberwolves and Suns. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its five road games this season. The Hawks also have covered four of the past five times against the Jazz.
01-14-21	Hornets v. Raptors UNDER 220		108-111	Win	100	9 h 21 m	Show
The Hornets' decent 6-6 start can be attributed to defense. Charlotte ranks eighth defensively holding foes to 107.3 points. Hornets Coach James Borrego is showing how much he prefers defense above offense by giving minutes to Cody and Caleb Martin while keeping scorer Malik Monk on the bench. A rusty Monk may get an opportunity here, though, as the Hornets' leading scorer, Gordon Hayward, may not play after suffering a hip strain on Wednesday. Hayward and Terry Rozier are the only Charlotte players averaging more than 13 points per game. Charlotte ranks 24th in scoring at 107.2. The Hornets just matched their lowest scoring output of the season in a 104-93 home loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. That game went 24 points below the closing total of 221. The Hornets lack inside scoring. They have to work hard for their baskets. Toronto gave up the second-fewest points per game last season. The Raptors, though, have been a major disappointment so far this season losing eight of their first 10 games while ranking 19th defensively yielding 112.5 points. Lately, however, the Raptors have shown defensive improvement. They held Golden State to 106 points and Portland to 112 points both on the road during their past two games. That's six points below the season average of both of those teams. The Raptors have played seven Western Conference teams plus the Celtics and 76ers - each of whom rank in the top 12 in scoring - during their first 10 games. Now they are stepping down in class against a punchless offense that could be without its best scorer.
01-12-21	Jazz v. Cavs +11	Top	117-87	Loss	-110	10 h 16 m	Show
Anytime you have Yogi Ferrell drawing minutes you know it's either a YMCA game, or an NBA team that has a serious injury situation and needs a body. Such is the case with the Cavaliers. But this spot sets up well for Cleveland so I'm taking double-digits with the home 'dog Cavaliers. Utah is playing its sixth road game in 10 days. The Jazz are 3-2 on their trip and off double-digit wins against the Bucks and Pistons. They conclude their road swing on Wednesday against the Wizards. The Jazz knows the Cavaliers are short-handed. This is a letdown and rest stop for them. Cleveland is minus Kevin Love, Dante Exum, Darius Garland and Kevin Porter. The Cavaliers also were minus Collin Sexton for a third straight game after he was a late scratch in Monday's 101-91 home loss to Memphis. It's a big plus if Sexton, an underrated guard having a tremendous season averaging 25.1 points, can play. But if he can't, I still like Cleveland to cover. The Cavaliers are playing at a snail's pace. They have an excellent big man, Andre Drummond, to execute this half-court style and frustrate Utah. Drummond gets some help on the frontcourt from Larry Nance Jr. An ugly, low-scoring matchup, which this game figures to be, is a plus for such a large-sized underdog.
01-10-21	Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 225.5		127-130	Loss	-110	11 h 28 m	Show
The Clippers have a top-10 defense. They should be motivated for this afternoon matchup after losing a 115-105 Friday game to the Warriors where they blew a 20-point second-half lead. The Bulls are short-handed. They likely will be minus two of their four best offensive players. Lauri Markkanen is expected to miss his seventh straight game due to COVID issues and Otto Porter Jr. is doubtful because of a back injury. Zack LaVine has been doing the heavy lifting for Chicago averaging 29.3 points during Chicago's last three games, all of which have been on the road. The Clippers have three elite defenders to slow down LaVine in Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley. Tempo always is important in getting involved with a total. This marks Chicago's fourth road game in six days. This is an early start time so it's almost like the Bulls are playing for the fourth time in five days. I highly doubt the weary Bulls want to play at a fast pace. The Clippers play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA.
01-09-21	Hawks -4 v. Hornets	Top	105-113	Loss	-110	15 h 28 m	Show
We're going to find out just how good Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce is with this game. These two teams just met this past Wednesday. The Hornets surprised the Hawks winning as six-point road 'dogs, 102-94. Trae Young had a bad game missing seven of nine shots from the floor and scoring only seven points, which is nearly 19 points below his season average. On the flip side, Gordon Hayward went off for a career-best 44 points. From a situational perspective, this game sets up well for the Hawks. They have been idle for the past two days since that loss to the Hornets. The Hawks have short revenge and are in stop-the-pain mode trying to halt a three-game losing streak after opening the season 4-1. Charlotte just got finished playing its fourth road game in six days, upsetting the Pelicans, 118-110, on Friday night. This will be the Hornets' first home game in eight days, so that's a bad spot for them from a concentration level. It's also the Hornets' sixth game in nine days so Charlotte carries a huge negative fatigue factor. Young is the most talented player on the court. John Collins the best big man. De'Andre Hunter is an underrated player. Atlanta has more firepower than Charlotte. Pierce has all these factors in his favor, but he has to show the coaching acumen to properly prepare the Hawks for what the Hornets did right in the earlier meeting two days ago, which was press and effectively switch defenses. Hayward is a nice complimentary player. Emphasize the word complimentary. There's no way he should score 44 points against any self-respecting NBA team. So the Hawks obviously have to play better defense on him. The oddsmaker believes the Hawks are the superior team making them road chalk. I do, too, but they have to prove it, especially the coach. I believe they will.
01-08-21	Suns v. Pistons +7.5	Top	105-110	Win	100	7 h 20 m	Show
Now that the line has gotten past 7 at some sportsbooks and word has come out that Derrick Rose is OK to play, I'm going to get involved with the home underdog Pistons. Phoenix has continued to play well this season after going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble to finish last season. The Suns are 6-2. The timing isn't the best for Phoenix in this matchup, though. The Suns just defeated the Raptors, 123-115, at home two days ago. They play at Indiana on Saturday. That's a more challenging game for them so they don't want to leave everything on the floor in this matchup. But can the 1-7 Pistons hold up their end and make this a close game? I believe they can. It's a stop-the-pain game for Detroit, which is on a three-game losing streak and just suffered a 130-115 loss to the Bucks in a game where Milwaukee scored 82 first-half points. Rose went out in the second quarter after banging his knee. He didn't return. But he is expected to play today as the injury was not serious. This is important not only because Rose still remains an effective player averaging 15.3 points and 5.4 assists in around 24 minutes per game, but also because Detroit's starting point guard, rookie Killian Hayes, is out after suffering a torn labrum in his right hip. The Pistons would be thin and inexperienced in the backcourt without Rose. The Suns aren't a team to back when laying a large number. Phoenix ranks only 20th in scoring averaging 109.8 points per game. Detroit, by contrast, actually averages more points a game at 111.5. The Pistons have been rough on the Suns, too, winning both games last season and covering 13 of the last 16 at home versus Phoenix.
01-06-21	Bulls v. Kings -6.5	Top	124-128	Loss	-110	18 h 11 m	Show
Despite missing four players, including Lauri Markkanen, because of COVID reasons the Bulls upset the Trail Blazers, 111-108, as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs Tuesday night. Chicago had lost seven in a row to Portland. It was a tremendous gutty win for the Bulls. Chicago came from 20 points down to pull out the win. But that highly-satisfying victory sets up the Bulls for failure today. Chicago is 8-20 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Bulls have a much more high profile opponent after this game against Sacramento. Chicago meets the world champion Lakers on Friday. The Kings aren't going to lack motivation, nor take the Bulls lightly. After opening 3-1 with home victories against the Nuggets and Suns, the Kings concluded an 0-3 road trip with an embarrassing 137-106 loss to Golden State this past Monday. There's a chance the Kings get back potential rookie of the year candidate Tyrese Haliburton for this game. The No. 12 overall pick in the draft, Haliburton has put up excellent across-the-board numbers for the Kings while shooting 52.9 percent from the floor. He's missed the last two games with a wrist injury. I like the Kings even if Haliburton can't play. Sacramento is 10-4-1 ATS in its past 15 home contests. The Bulls, in addition to their letdown factor, carry a heavy fatigue rating and are dealing with a short bench due to COVID. This will be their fifth game in seven days, all at a different location.
01-06-21	Wizards v. 76ers -6.5		136-141	Loss	-110	15 h 14 m	Show
I find this line to be short. The 76ers are 6-1 - the best record in the NBA - and at this early stage could be the best, or second-best, team in the Eastern Conference. Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are all playing at high levels. Newcomer Seth Curry has upgraded the 76ers' perimeter game, making Embiid even more effective. The Wizards have won two in a row after opening the season 0-5. Russell Westbrook makes Washington look better on paper. But I'm not sold. One of Washington's victories came against 2-5 Minnesota, which was missing its best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. Washington still hasn't made defensive progress ranking second-to-last in points allowed per game. The 76ers give up 19 fewer points per game than the Wizards. Then there is Philly's dominant home-court advantage. The 76ers have won 19 in a row at home. They are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times as home favorites. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Philadelphia.
01-05-21	Lakers v. Grizzlies +9	Top	94-92	Win	100	17 h 48 m	Show
The Grizzlies' injury list is a long one - Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Justice Winslow and John Konchar. Morant and Jackson are the Grizzlies' two best players. So why get involved with the Grizzlies? Situation. It sets up well for Memphis plus the Grizzlies are getting reinforcements. This is the Lakers' fourth road game in seven days. The Lakers have won the three previous ones, including defeating the Grizzlies, 108-94, two days ago. The Lakers return to LA following this matchup to host the Spurs on Thursday. A letdown, lack of concentration and this being a rest stop all work against the Lakers in this spot. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have short home revenge. Memphis was hanging in with LA this past Sunday trailing by only two points entering the fourth quarter before falling apart. The Lakers shot 19 free throws to the Grizzlies' eight in that game. So there could be an officiating adjustment to that free throw disparity in this game. Memphis isn't some bottom-feeder even without Morant and Jackson. The Grizzlies nearly made the postseason in the highly competitive Western Conference last season falling to Portland by four points in the play-in game. Jonas Valanciunas is a quality big man and Kyle Anderson is playing well. Key reserve De'Anthony Melton is available now after getting clearance from COVID-19 protocols. The Grizzlies also get Grayson Allen back from an ankle injury and signed Tim Frazier. Allen and Frazier provide needed backcourt depth.
01-04-21	Pacers +1.5 v. Pelicans		118-116	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
The Pelicans are a work-in-progress under new coach Stan Van Gundy. Their defense already appears improved - which wasn't a high bar to overcome - but their offense sometimes becomes too reliant on Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. So this should be a good matchup for the Pacers. They also have a new coach, Nate Bjorkgren. Indiana remains scrappy, but the Pacers have become much more of a 3-point shooting team under Bjorkgren. They've have time now to adjust to the loss of forward T.J. Warren, who is out following foot surgery. The Pacers are off a frustrating 106-102 loss to the Knicks from Saturday. The Pelicans defeated the Raptors, 120-116, also on Saturday. That was a highly satisfying victory for the Pelicans.
01-04-21	Celtics v. Raptors -3.5	Top	126-114	Loss	-111	9 h 33 m	Show
Both teams have many kinks to work out during this early part of the season. But Toronto has playoff revenge after being eliminated by Boston in the second round of the playoffs. The Raptors are getting more used to their temporary Tampa home and draw the Celtics in a brutal situational spot. This is the Celtics' second consecutive game and fifth in seven days. Toronto still is playing strong defense ranking No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. Nick Nurse is one of the few coaches who is at the level of Brad Stevens.
01-04-21	Cavs v. Magic -5		83-103	Win	100	8 h 48 m	Show
Orlando is a team I'm usually more comfortable taking points with rather than laying. But I see this as a good spot for the Magic. The Magic look much improved. They opened 4-0, but then lost to the 76ers. No shame in that. The 76ers have the best record in the NBA at 5-1. But then the Magic lost 108-99 at home this past Saturday to rebuilding Oklahoma City. The Magic missed 20 of 28 shots from the floor in the fourth quarter. Many of these shots were easy and open looks. It was an extremely frustrating defeat for the Magic. Orlando is anxious to get back on track and is pointing to this matchup. The Magic swept all three meetings from Cleveland last season and are 7-3 ATS during their past 10 games versus the Cavaliers. They catch the Cavaliers off a satisfying 96-91 upset victory against the Hawks from two days ago.
01-03-21	Clippers v. Suns UNDER 218	Top	112-107	Loss	-110	16 h 58 m	Show
Maybe it shouldn't be too shocking that the Suns are tied with the top record in the NBA at 5-1. They were the best team in the Orlando bubble last season winning all eight of their games. The Suns are winning with defense. They are giving up the fewest points per game in the NBA at 98.7. Phoenix has been even stingier in its last four games holding foes to 96 points per contest. The oddsmaker and marketplace have been slow to adjust. Phoenix has gone Under in every one of its games. The important matter here is have the proper totals adjustment on Phoenix finally been made? I say it still hasn't. This total is too high. Both the Clippers and Suns are slow-paced teams. The Clippers will be looking to pound the Suns inside in a deliberate, time-consuming matter. Superstar Kawhi Leonard is bothered by wearing a face mask, something he has to do for the time being after suffering a deep cut near his mouth a few games ago. LA was just held to 100 points on the road against the Jazz in its last game this past Friday. Chris Paul is running the show in Phoenix, which has meant a slower tempo. That's helped keep Phoenix's scores down, too. The average combined score in Phoenix games this season is 206.6 points. Not once has there been more than 216 points scored in any of the Suns' games. The Clippers should have their defensive intensity up for this game coming off a 106-100 road loss to Utah and realizing how improved Phoenix is. Leonard and Paul George are excellent defenders in addition to being high scorers. Patrick Beverley is a superb defender, too. LA ranks 11th in scoring defense. If you discount a freakish 124-73 loss to Dallas, the Clippers would be giving up 105.8 points per game instead of 108.8. That lower figure would have them ranked seventh in the league defensively.
01-02-21	Cavs +7 v. Hawks	Top	96-91	Win	100	11 h 31 m	Show
The Hawks look improved. But so do the 3-2 Cavaliers, who catch the Hawks in a letdown spot and carrying a high fatigue rating. Atlanta is coming off a satisfying 114-96 revenge victory against the Nets on the road Friday night. Brooklyn had nipped the Hawks in a wild 145-141 game on Wednesday in which Atlanta blew a late lead. So now the Hawks come home to Atlanta where they find the Cavaliers waiting for them. Cleveland should have its intensity up after consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pacers on Thursday. The Cavaliers had opened with three straight victories before these two setbacks. That was their best start in five years. Both defeats are humbling to the Cavaliers, who fell 95-86 to the Knicks and 119-99 to Indiana. I'm looking for Cleveland to bounce back in this spot. The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games going back to last season and also have covered seven of the past 10 times versus the Hawks in Atlanta. The Hawks are 3-9 ATS the last 12 times when playing without rest. This is their third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Hawks could be missing a pair of veterans. Rajon Rondo missed last night's game with a sore knee and sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari has been out with an ankle injury. Keep an eye on Hawks star Trae Young, who has been dealing with a sore calf.
01-01-21	Celtics v. Pistons +10	Top	93-96	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
Even with the regular season reduced from 82 to 72 games, elite teams such as Boston seek rest stops on its schedule. One such rest spot is today's game at Detroit against the 0-4 Pistons. The Celtics are coming off consecutive victories beating the Pacers on the road Tuesday and cruising past the short-handed Grizzlies at home on Wednesday. This marks the Celtics' fourth game in six days. The Pistons, by contrast, have been idle the past two days having last played on Tuesday. The Pistons aren't likely to have Blake Griffin, who is in the league's concussion protocol. Rookie point guard Killian Hayes probably is out, too. I'd rather have Hayes out since he's a work-in-progress for the rebuilding Pistons. This might mean giving more minutes to veteran Derrick Rose. It's a bonus if Griffin plays because I like the Pistons in this spot regardless if Griffin plays or sits. The Pistons have hung around in their games. They should have defeated the improved Cavaliers blowing a late lead and losing in overtime. Dwane Casey is a solid coach and the Pistons have been getting strong play from a couple of unsung players, Jerami Grant and Josh Jackson. Boston isn't motivated to run up a score since the teams play again on Sunday and the Celtics don't want to provide the Pistons with any extra motivation.
12-31-20	Knicks v. Raptors -9	Top	83-100	Win	100	17 h 47 m	Show
At 0-3, the Raptors are approaching this matchup with a great deal of urgency. I expect a circle-the-wagons type of performance from Toronto. If opponents treat the Knicks seriously then New York is in trouble. The Raptors won't be taking the 2-2 Knicks lightly even though they've defeated New York eight straight times. The Knicks have shown early improvement under Tom Thibodeau. They may not be quite the laughing stock of the past few seasons, but they still are a bottom-feeder. Toronto led the 76ers by 14 points in the second half during its last game two days ago. But the Raptors lost. The last time Toronto opened so poorly was 15 years ago. The Knicks's bench is extremely banged-up especially in the backcourt. Austin Rivers may be able to return from a groin injury that has kept him out, but Frank Ntiliikna and Dennis Smith are sidelined. Shooting guard Alec Burks, the Knicks' second-leading scorer, is questionable with an ankle injury.
12-30-20	Hornets +8 v. Mavs		118-99	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
Most NBA teams have certain tendencies. Charlotte usually is tough as an underdog. The Hornets are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times catching points. They just knocked off the Nets, 106-104, as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. Dallas is good as an underdog, not so good as a home favorite and not very trustworthy following a victory. The Mavericks are coming off an historic, 124-73, road victory against the Clippers this past Sunday in which they led by an NBA-record 50 points at halftime. Now the Mavericks are playing their first home contest of the season after consecutive road games versus the much-improved Suns, defending world champion Lakers and Clippers. Dallas hosts Eastern Conference champion Miami on Friday. In between all of this is this game against the lowly Hornets. So the Mavericks' intensity and concentration level figures to be down. Dallas has covered just 29 percent of the time following a victory during the past 30 instances. Charlotte has some confidence following its victory against Brooklyn. The Hornets should get better as the season progresses integrating two significant newcomers, free agent Gordon Hayward and third overall draft pick LaMelo Ball. The timing of this matchup should result in a closer than expected contest.
12-29-20	Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 223.5	Top	86-111	Win	100	19 h 46 m	Show
It's easy to think of a high-scoring game in a Pelicans-Suns matchup. Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram. These are all big-name scorers. But so far these two teams have shown drastic defensive improvement. How much? New Orleans gives up the fewest points per game in the NBA and the Suns allow the second-fewest points in the league. Shocking, I know. The Pelicans' defensive improvement is not an early season fluke. New Orleans is better coached and stressing defense under new coach Stan Van Gundy. The Pelicans have slowed down their pace from last season when Alvin Gentry was their coach. The Suns are a work-in-progress with many new faces, including point guard Chris Paul. Part of why the Suns' defense is better is because their offense is slower tempo now with Paul running things.
12-28-20	Pistons +9.5 v. Hawks	Top	120-128	Win	100	14 h 3 m	Show
Atlanta is 2-0 with a pair of road wins. But before rushing off to claim how good the Hawks have become, do realize a couple of things: Those victories have been against winless Memphis and winless Chicago, who right now is the worst team in the NBA. Trae Young is shooting 55.6 percent from the floor. Young is an emerging superstar, but he's not nearly that accurate from the floor. He shot 43.7 percent last season from the field. The Pistons should have defeated the Cavaliers in their last game this past Saturday, but lost in double-overtime after leading by eight with three minutes left. Detroit has enjoyed recent success against Atlanta. The Pistons are 4-2 in their last six games against the Hawks, including winning the most recent time. That was a 136-103 blowout victory in Atlanta last January. The Hawks have a number of injured players, including center Clint Capela. Atlanta plays at the Nets on Wednesday. So it's not inconceivable that the Hawks may be looking past the Pistons to a much bigger game. The Hawks aren't good enough to do that and cover a spread this large.
12-27-20	Warriors -3 v. Bulls		129-128	Loss	-112	14 h 38 m	Show
Both Golden State and Chicago are 0-2. All of these losses were by blowouts, too. But there's a major difference. The Warriors were buried by the Bucks and Nets, probably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls lost big to the Pacers and Hawks. Billy Donovan certainly has his work cut out for him in his first season as Bulls coach. Chicago surrendered 124 points to the Hawks and 125 to the Pacers. Defense is a real problem for the Bulls. The loss to the Pacers came on Saturday. The Warriors are the more rested team having last played on Friday. Center James Wiseman, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, already is displaying his potential scoring 18 and 19 points, respectively, during his first two NBA games. Stephen Curry gives the Warriors the best player on the court by far and there's a good chance Draymond Green makes his season debut here for the Warriors. Big coaching edge, too, for the Warriors right now with Steve Kerr against Donovan.
12-27-20	76ers -6 v. Cavs		94-118	Loss	-105	13 h 10 m	Show
The 76ers were one of the worst road teams in the league last season going 10-24 before entering bubble play. Philadelphia is at least two levels higher than Cleveland. But dare we trust the 76ers to cover this mid-sized number on the road? The answer is yes. The 76ers are in a good early place right now under new coach Doc Rivers, with Ben Simmons healthy and added perimeter shooters to take the double-team pressure off Joel Embiid. These elements all were in play when the 76ers rolled past the Knicks, 109-89, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Because of the blowout, Embiid got to rest for much of the second half playing less than 31 minutes. The Cavaliers also played on Saturday. They went double overtime to beat the Pistons, 128-119, in Detroit. Cleveland opened its season with a win against the Hornets. So the Cavaliers are in a rare fat and happy mood. They had four starters log more than 41 minutes against the Pistons. Kevin Love returned from a calf injury that kept him out of the Hornets game to play more than 37 minutes. So his minutes could be limited.
12-26-20	Raptors -109 v. Spurs		114-119	Loss	-109	19 h 14 m	Show
Too much emphasis is being put on these two team's opening game. The Spurs were sharp in their first game beating Memphis, 131-119, on the road this past Wednesday. The Raptors were embarrassed, 113-99, by the Pelicans in their opener. This doesn't change the fact that the Raptors are a much better team than the Spurs. Toronto was the top defensive team in the league last season. The Raptors also tied with the Lakers for the best road mark in the NBA last season at 27-9. Toronto is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 away contests.
12-26-20	Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls		125-106	Win	100	19 h 45 m	Show
Maybe the Bulls will be better under their new coach, Billy Donovan. But that time isn't now. Chicago was horrendous in its opening game surrendering 83 points in the first half of a 124-104 home loss to the Hawks. The Bulls are brutal as home 'dogs failing to cover 24 of the past 33 times in that role. Indiana has been very strong as road chalk going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when favored on the road. The Pacers have reached the playoffs each of the past four seasons. The Bulls last made the postseason in 2017. Nate Bjorkgren had a successful Indiana coaching debut this past Wednesday. The Pacers took care of business with a 121-107 home win against the Knicks. Now Indiana draws another Eastern Conference bottom feeder. I don't see the Bulls doing any better than the Knicks did against the Pacers especially with Victor Oladipo finally appearing fully healthy.
12-26-20	Hawks v. Grizzlies -114		122-112	Loss	-114	16 h 43 m	Show
The Grizzlies want to get things right after losing, 131-119, at home to the Spurs as short favorites in their opener this past Wednesday. Memphis catches Atlanta a bit fat after the Hawks rolled past the Bulls, 124-104, on the road in their Wednesday opening game. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points. They also draw the Hawks dealing with multiple injuries. Atlanta is down point guards Rajon Rondo and Kris Dunn. The Hawks also could be without sharp-shooting forward Danilo Gallinari and center Clint Capela. Both are doubtful. Memphis had no problem handling the Hawks last season winning by 39 and 17 points, respectively. Ja Mortant had big games against the Hawks and already looks in great form scoring 44 points in this season's opener. Center Jonas Valanciunas is another matchup problem for Atlanta. Valanciunas is in line for another big performance especially if Capela can't play due to an Achilles injury.
12-25-20	Nets -3 v. Celtics		123-95	Win	100	13 h 37 m	Show
I consider the Nets a level higher than Boston given a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant while Boston no longer has Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker is out. Early money in the marketplace agrees as the Nets have been pushed up to this point spread range. It's justified. The Nets are the better team and they want to make an early statement in proof of that. This is their chance being on national TV on Christmas Day. The Nets haven't played on Christmas Day since 2013. This also is Irving's first regular season game against his former team. Brooklyn built a 38-point lead against Golden State in its opener this past Tuesday, winning 125-99. The takeaways from that game were not just Irving and Durant looking good, but that the Nets had 28 fast-break points, seven blocks and 11 steals. The Celtics pulled off a dramatic, 122-121, home win against the defending Eastern Conference champion Bucks this past Wednesday. I see the Nets not just as the more talented team, but also the more motivated. They also have the deeper bench.
12-23-20	Mavs +1 v. Suns		102-106	Loss	-110	9 h 7 m	Show
The Suns were great in the bubble to finish last season. But I don't consider them a better team than the Mavericks. Dallas is a very strong road club. The Mavericks won 23 of 37 away games last season. The Mavericks have the superior coach in Rick Carlisle, have better continuity and a deeper roster. This is the Suns' first game with new point guard Chris Paul, and he's not at 100 percent due to an ankle injury. The Suns also won't have injured Dario Saric.
12-23-20	Bucks -3.5 v. Celtics		121-122	Loss	-107	17 h 8 m	Show
The Bucks compiled the best regular season record at 56-17 last season. Milwaukee, though, was taken out in the playoffs by the Heat. So the Bucks and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, armed with a contract extension, are anxious to begin a new season. They were a level higher than Boston last season and could be two levels higher right now given that the Celtics are without Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker. Milwaukee has the stronger bench and firepower as the Celtics don't offer much once you get past Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
12-23-20	Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 225	Top	121-122	Loss	-105	17 h 4 m	Show
The Celtics' firepower is down right now minus departed Gordon Hayward and injured Kemba Walker. The Celtics don't have much scoring outside of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics added Tristan Thompson, who is good for the Under being a defensive-oriented big man. The Celtics gave up the fewest points per game in the playoffs and ranked No. 2 in scoring defense during the regular season last year at 107.3. The Bucks are adjusting to a new point guard, Jrue Holiday, and have brought in many new bench players. So Milwaukee's offense is in transition right now.
12-22-20	Warriors v. Nets -6.5	Top	99-125	Win	100	37 h 36 m	Show
I see this line closing higher so I'm going to lock in now with the Nets. It's no joke. The Nets are serious contenders to win the Eastern Conference with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant each healthy and an excellent collection of talented role players. Brooklyn looked good in preseason going 2-0 beating the Celtics and Wizards by a combined average of 14 1/2 points. Golden State isn't at Brooklyn's level. Yes, Stephen Curry is back. That's enough to elevate the Warriors into a playoff contender. But that's it. Klay Thompson is out long-term and Draymond Green isn't expected to play in this game due to a foot injury. The Nets have much the stronger bench.
10-11-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 216	Top	106-93	Win	100	35 h 48 m	Show
I don't expect the Lakers-Heat to make 39 of 43 (91 percent) free throws like they combined to do in the Heat's 111-108 Game 5 victory on Friday. I do expect both teams to play intense defense and for the pace to be slow in Sunday's Game 6. These are two reasons why I like the Under. There are other factors, too, that point to a lower-scoring game than what the total indicates. Fatigue and being in the bubble for so long are considerations. The Heat have shortened their bench to just two reserves with starting point guard Goran Dragic out. Jimmy Butler is on fumes. Miami has to play a slow-down, half-court, slog-in-the-mud style. They have the mentality, coaching and guts to win this way. The Lakers' greatest fear of LeBron James and Anthony Davis not getting enough help was realized in Game 5. Except for those two superstars, the Lakers didn't get good performances from anybody else. LA's reserves were 5-of-22 shooting from the floor for just 14 points. None of them can be counted on. This puts tremendous pressure on James, who doesn't figure to make 15 of 21 shots from the floor like he did on Friday, and Davis, who isn't 100 percent. Davis is dealing with soreness in his right heel that was reaggravated during Friday's game. Bothered by that, Davis managed just two shots in the fourth quarter. I have no doubt Davis will play Sunday. How effective he'll be with the heel injury and with defensive ace Bam Adebayo guarding him remains to be seen.
10-09-20	Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217	Top	111-108	Loss	-110	61 h 41 m	Show
By far the Heat and Lakers had their finest defensive performances of the playoffs in Game 4 this past Tuesday. The Heat getting star defender Bam Adebayo back and playing more man-to-man defense were keys. After giving up an average of 120 points in the first two games, the Heat have held LA to an average of 103 points during the past two games. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra isn't going to go away from his defensive script from the last two games in which Miami has gone 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS. The Heat are going to stick with plain, old-fashion playoff intensity defense. Adebayo's impact can't be downplayed. He missed Games 2 and 3 with a stiff neck. Adebayo is a rim protector and is the one Miami player who can keep Anthony Davis from dominating the offensive glass. Davis failed to get an offensive rebound in Game 4 after pulling down 13 during the first three games. It takes two to make a total work. I see the Lakers holding up their end especially with Goran Dragic out after he tore the plantar fascia in his left foot during Game 1. That's a serious injury and Dragic isn't coming back soon from it. The ramifications are severe for the Heat. Dragic, not Jimmy Butler, was the Heat's leading scorer in the playoffs entering this series. He also was their top assists guy and one of their key 3-point shooters. The loss of Dragic forces Spoelstra to use sixth man Tyler Herro as his lead ballhandler. Inserting Herro into the starting lineup greatly weakens Miami's bench especially from a scoring perspective. Lakers coach Frank Vogel made a major adjustment in Tuesday's Game 4 putting Davis - the Lakers' best defender - on Butler for the entire game. Butler still had a decent game, but couldn't come close to matching his Superman performance in Game 3 while missing nine of his last 12 shots. These adjustments, coupled with playoff intensity, should result in the Under cashing again.
10-06-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219	Top	102-96	Win	100	13 h 22 m	Show
We have a series after all thanks to Miami making 41 of 80 (51.2 percent) shots from the floor and 21 of 23 (91 percent) free throws in its 115-104 Game 3 victory this past Sunday. Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages with 40 points making 14 of 20 shots from the field. The Lakers haven't lost consecutive games in the playoffs. I expect their defensive intensity to be way up. They've held their last three opponents - Houston, Denver and Miami - to 108 or less points in seven of the last 11 games. I certainly don't expect Butler to repeat that monster performance and for the Heat to come nowhere close to shooting that unbelievably well again. Butler is a tremendous all-around player, but he's not Superman. The Lakers are in the Orlando bubble. They can't go anywhere, or do much except study game film of their miserable Game 3 loss. The Heat aren't going to have Goran Dragic. He's their best ballhandler. Bam Adebayo has a neck strain. He didn't play in Game 3 making Miami's victory all the more remarkable. He's questionable for this matchup. Adebayo is Miami's top defender. But he's also a force on the offensive glass and someone the Lakers have to game plan against. So he's a double-edged sword regarding the total. LeBron James and Anthony Davis committed a combined 15 turnovers on Sunday. James was overdue to have a big turnover game. The Heat are extremely well coached. They can play an effective 2-3 zone. The Lakers were held to just 50 points in the second half. So I have to think that the Heat's No. 1 priority is defense. Their hunger, confidence and street-fighting team makeup should be at a fever pitch for this matchup. This is playoff basketball after all.
10-04-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219	Top	104-115	Push	0	18 h 24 m	Show
The plucky Heat weren't going to upset the Lakers even if they were healthy. But now take away Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic - Miami's second and third-best players - the Heat have no chance. Still, the Heat have a lot of street fight mentality installed in them by Erik Spoelstra, Pat Riley and Jimmy Butler. This is a well-coached, tough, gutty team. And this Game 3 is their season. So I don't want to lay this big number with the Lakers. I believe the best way to go is with the Under. The Lakers haven't had a total this high since two series ago when they were going against the small-ball, up-tempo Rockets. The Heat also haven't had an Over/Under this high during their past two series. The Lakers are coming off their worst defensive performance maybe of the entire 17 playoff games giving up 114 points to a wounded Heat squad. Frank Vogel and LeBron James aren't going to stand for that. Expect a much tighter and intense Lakers defensive effort. No snoozing or being overconfident. The Heat know they have to clamp down on the Lakers being plus 13 on offensive rebounds. Adebayo is a long-shot to play. If he did that would reduce that gap. I'm not expecting him to play, though. I am expecting an all-out defensive effort from the Heat and for James to commit more turnovers than the small number he has.
09-30-20	Heat +5 v. Lakers	Top	98-116	Loss	-105	38 h 39 m	Show
Maybe LeBron James is the Chosen One and his Lakers the anointed world champions. That's probably how this NBA Championship Series is going to get played out. But Miami will make LA sweat and earn it. The Lakers have been idle for four days. They lost the opening game in their playoff series against Portland and Houston. There's going to be a feeling-out process here in this Game 1. There could be Lakers rust. Eric Spoelstra is a top-notch coach. Miami will be well-prepared. The Lakers will need to hit a fair amount of 3-point shots to dent the Heat's 2-3 zone defense. Anthony Davis will have to deal with Bam Adebayo, who is the best defender an opponent can have to square off against Davis. James is going to be facing a swarm of wing players who are accomplished defenders and have experience guarding him - Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. Spoelstra coached James in Miami. This will be James' stiffest test of the postseason. Let's forget the regular season. Erase it. Concentrate on the bubble where the Heat raised their game to an unprecedented level sweeping the Pacers, stunning the Bucks and taking out the Celtics. The Heat's intensity and variety of defenses help them bottle up Giannis Antetokounmpo and then Jayson Tatum. The Heat have been tremendously underrated in the bubble covering 12 of their last 15 games. The Lakers haven't faced this strong of a defense. Portland ranked 27th defensively. Denver was 16th, Houston 15th. James and Davis are the two best players on the court. But the Heat have the next best three in Butler, Abebayo and Goran Dragic, who is having a strong postseason. I'll take the Heat's bench over LA's reserves. None of the Lakers' bench players has been able to match the instant offense of unconscious rookie Tyler Herro. Miami is likely to play more zone defense than the Lakers are used to. The Lakers rank 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. By comparison, the Celtics ranked 13th. There is no home-court in the bubble. This is strictly matchup basketball where coaching is magnified. If the Heat don't steal this first game, they should at least take LA to the wire.
09-26-20	Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215	Top	107-117	Loss	-110	29 h 28 m	Show
Twice the Nuggets have dug themselves out of a 3-1 playoff series hole beating the Clippers and Jazz. No NBA team had ever done that twice during the same postseason. Denver is gutty and resilient. The Nuggets may be out of gas, too. This will be Denver's 19th playoff game. No team has played that many this season. I'm not going to go against the Nuggets here. They've earned too much respect. But if the Lakers don't get them, fatigue might. So I believe the right choice is Under the total. The Nuggets play to the second-lowest pace of any of the original 16 playoff teams. That's not going to change here. Denver knows it has to keep the Lakers out of transition in order to limit fast break points, which is an edge LA has on the Nuggets. Look for the Nuggets to play slow and deliberate. The Lakers aren't a helter skelter team either. They ranked ninth of the 16 playoff teams in tempo. Denver doesn't have a big scoring bench. The Nuggets heavily rely on emerging star Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic for their offense. The Lakers, however, finally may have found the right solution to slowing down Murray - having LeBron James guard him. This was the case during the fourth quarter of the last game. The Nuggets didn't score on eight of 10 fourth quarter possessions when James was on Murray. During this span, Murray was 0-for-3 from the field. Murray, who is averaging nearly 40 minutes per game during the playoffs, clearly was bothered by James' physical style of defense. It's a double-edged sword, though, for the Lakers because it also tires out James to play such strong defense on Murray. James has to sacrifice some of his prolific offense to make this defense sacrifice. All of this is great for the Under. As for Jokic, the Lakers have several big bodies and fouls to deal with him. So he's not going to get any easy baskets.
09-23-20	Celtics -3 v. Heat	Top	109-112	Loss	-107	13 h 20 m	Show
The premise of my handicap on this Game 4 matchup begins with a quirk - the teams have been idle for three full days. The key is figuring out who benefits most from that weird scheduling. I've always thought the Celtics were the better team in this series. I still do. Yet Boston is down 2-1 in the series because of not executing an end game blowing double-digit leads in both of their Game 1 and Game 2 losses, Miami's bench outplaying the Celtics' reserves and Erik Spoelstra out-coaching Brad Stevens, which is tough to do. I don't look at the Celtics losing their new-found momentum with this lengthy time off following their 11-point victory in Game 3 this past Saturday. Instead it's a break for Boston. The Celtics have a starting five and star players advantage on Miami. The Heat don't present the elite defense Toronto did during Boston's previous series. The Heat lack the quickness and defensive studs to counter the size and athleticism of the Celtics' guards and wings. The Heat could exploit their depth and versatility during the first couple of games because they were less fatigued than Boston. The Celtics entered the series having played 10 games in 21 days with their starters logging heavy minutes. The return of Gordon Hayward from an ankle injury also holds a big impact. Not only is Hayward a playmaker who gives the Celtics a fourth excellent option to go with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker, but his ability to log at least 30 minutes keeps a much lesser player like Semi Ojeleye off the court. The Celtics can now go with their starters for 40 or so minutes and not worry about weariness because of the extra time afforded them. When the Celtics have their best five players on the court, the Heat are not a match for them. It's not that big of a fluke the Celtics have covered 73 percent of the time during the past 27 instances when playing on 3 or more day's rest. Rarely does Stevens get out-coached. He may be the best coach in the Eastern Conference. But Spoelstra is in that best coach discussion, too. I think Stevens figures things out during the long break. Putting defensive ace Marcus Smart on Goran Dragic was one good adjustment already made. The Celtics outscored the Heat, 60-36, in the paint in the last game. Boston has four stars. Miami has two with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who is proving himself once again in this series. There's not much else Spoelstra can do. His team isn't as talented as Boston, isn't as good defensively and their conditioning edge has been removed by the long break.
09-22-20	Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5		106-114	Win	100	12 h 4 m	Show
If there is anything we have learned about the Denver Nuggets is they won't quit, or give in. They proved that in coming back from 3-1 playoff deficits TWICE knocking out the Jazz and Clippers. If it wasn't for Anthony Davis hitting a contested 3-pointer right before the buzzer in Sunday's Game 2, this series would be tied instead of Denver down 0-2. The Nuggets had the game. They aren't as good as the Lakers. But the Nuggets have guts and they are not outclassed. So I'm willing to take them with this many points. There is no key number in pro basketball equivalent to the importance of 3 in the NFL. The closest is 6 because that represents two possessions. So getting the hook with 6 at plus 6 1/2 is important. Davis is having a monster series fully living up to his superstar status. LeBron James is as iconic as ever, willing the Lakers to being the favorites to win the world championship. However, the Nuggets have two stars, too. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are underappreciated compared to Davis and James. Jokic had a strong second half in Game 2. I don't think Dwight Howard will be effective anymore in handling Jokic if the Lakers choose to go that matchup route again. Murray played 44 of the 48 minutes in Game 2. When Murray was on the court, the Nuggets were a staggering plus 16 in point differential.
09-19-20	Celtics v. Heat OVER 206	Top	117-106	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
Understandably this is playoff basketball so totals are going to be low. But the Celtics aren't playing the Raptors here. Miami isn't the defensive team that Toronto was. The Celtics are sure to be fired-up after blowing huge leads in the first two games to fall behind 0-2. If Boston builds up another big lead it won't coast. The Celtics will stay on the attack. There's also the chance Gordon Hayward makes his series debut. That would give Boston a legitimate fourth scoring weapon to go with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker, who shot much better in Game 2. The Heat defense got through the Bucks because Milwaukee lacked a quickness advantage. The Heat don't have that edge on the Celtics. Miami, though, has been getting the needed contributions from players besides Jimmy Butler. The Heat scored 106 in the last game despite Butler shooting just 4-of-11 from the floor and scoring a meager 14 points. Miami's motion-laden offense has been successful exploiting Walker's weak defense. The Heat have averaged 109.7 points in regulation during their last seven games facing the Celtics and Bucks, who gave up the eighth-fewest points and ranked first in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. If the Heat are able to build up a big lead, I could envision a bubbling-over frustrated Celtics team committing a lot of fouls.
09-18-20	Nuggets v. Lakers -6.5	Top	114-126	Win	100	56 h 49 m	Show
Right before the NBA shut down, the Lakers were playing better than any team posting a late February victory against the Celtics and early March wins against the Bucks and Clippers. It has taken six months and playing in a bubble, but the Lakers are back to being the best team in the NBA. LeBron James is on a mission. I haven't seen a mega-superstar so committed to winning a championship since Michael Jordan. The Lakers can win going big, or win playing small ball. Their defense is top-notch and they have tremendous versatility to go with James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis. The Lakers handled Damian Lillard, the hottest player in the bubble, and they held the high-scoring Rockets to 99.3 points per game during the last three games of that series. The Nuggets are not in the Lakers' class. The Nuggets are still on Cloud 9 after coming from a 3-1 deficit to pull out a shocking series win against the heavily favored Clippers. They beat the Clippers in Game 7 on Tuesday night. I don't think the Nuggets will be ready for this Game 1 matchup. It comes too soon for them. The Lakes have been idle for six days. Yes, the Lakers lost Game 1 to Portland and Game 1 to Houston before winning the rest of the games in those series without another loss. LA has learned its lesson. Look for the Lakers to come out fully ready after those previous Game 1 mishaps.
09-17-20	Heat v. Celtics -133	Top	106-101	Loss	-133	29 h 35 m	Show
The scoreboard shows the Heat up 1-0 in this series after winning Game 1 in overtime. I had Boston on the money line in Game 1 and I'm sticking with the Celtics on the money line in Game 2 instead of laying a short number. I'm doing it because I'm convinced the Celtics are the better team. I understand the Heat won Game 1. But the oddsmaker agrees with me as the Celtics are slightly larger favorites than they were in the opening game. Boston should have won Game 1 owning at least a two-possession lead for nearly the entire game. But the Celtics blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead and let the game slip away. The Celtics own the matchup edges. Miami's defense isn't as good as the Raptors, who the Celtics beat in the previous series. The Heat lack the defensive quickness to stay with Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylon Brown. And offensively, Jimmy Butler is really the Heat's only consistent scoring weapon. I certainly don't expect Jae Crowder to score 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting, including 5-of-9 from 3-point range, to come up that big again in Game 2 as he did in the opener. He averaged 10.5 points during the regular season. Walker needs to play better and the Celtics' transition defense needs to be turned up a notch like it was against the Raptors. Those shouldn't areas should not be difficult to fix. I'm not down on the Heat. I respect them enough to play Boston on the money line rather than risk laying a short number. But I've always thought the Celtics to be the better team and an opponent that Miami doesn't match-up as well against as it did against the Bucks.
09-15-20	Heat v. Celtics -118	Top	117-114	Loss	-118	35 h 28 m	Show
The Bucks matched up poorly against the Heat. Perhaps also distracted by spearheading a one-game boycott, the Bucks were drummed out of the playoffs by Miami. Credit to the Heat. But now Miami draws a well-focused opponent it doesn't match up well against. The Heat might have grabbed Game 1 in this series with a situational advantage since they are rested while the Celtics had to go the full seven games to eliminate the Raptors. However, the NBA schedulemakers negated that edge for Miami by scheduling this game four days after Boston took out Toronto. That's enough time for the Celtics to rest, recuperate and fully game-plan for Miami. The Heat, on the other hand, last played a full week ago. So they have to deal with a rust factor and lost momentum. The Heat finished 12th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They stepped up defensively against the Bucks. They did that by keying on Giannis Antetokounmpo and gambling that the rest of the Bucks weren't good enough. That worked because the Bucks weren't the same team inside the bubble they were during their dominant regular season when they won 53 of their first 63 games. The Bucks lacked off-the-dribble threats aside from Antetokounmpo. The Celtics have a different makeup. They don't have one superstar. Instead they have several stars - Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum - a strong bench and the best coach in the league, Brad Stevens. The Celtics actually are going to find scoring easier against the Heat than they did against the Raptors, who had the No. 1 defense in the league. The Celtics are vulnerable to fast backcourts and teams who have multiple shot creators. Aside from Jimmy Butler, the Heat don't have that, nor can they match Boston's trio of star power. The Celtics have the needed defensive flexibility, too, that Milwaukee lacked. The Celtics can play up-tempo if it suits their purpose, or handle a half-court game that Miami favors. Prior to this season, the Heat hadn't won a playoff series since 2016. They lack the necessary deep playoff pedigree that Boston has from reaching the conference finals in 2017 and 2018. Upsetting the flawed Bucks has made the Heat overvalued. The money line price is low enough to back the superior Celtics.
09-12-20	Rockets v. Lakers -6.5	Top	96-119	Win	101	18 h 45 m	Show
The Rockets are cooked. They know it and they can't really do anything about it. LeBron James is on a mission to bring the Lakers to the NBA Championship Series. The Rockets have firepower. But the Rockets don't match up well to the Lakers, are outcoached and LA has a huge confidence and psychological edge. This has built up through the last three games, all won by the Lakers after they lost Game 1. The final score in LA's 110-100 Game 4 victory on Thursday was misleading. The Lakers dominated the Rockets leading by 23 points in the fourth quarter before letting up, which they won't do in this potential close-out game. The Lakers outscored the smallish Rockets, 62-24, in the paint, grabbed 26 more rebounds and held a 19-2 fast-break points edge. Even if he were a good coach, which he isn't, Mike D'Antoni doesn't have the lineup flexibility to make proper adjustments. The Rockets have just one style and the Lakers have countered and exposed it. The Lakers have dictated their style and pace the past three games. That's not going to change. The Lakers should have a killer attitude, too, after the Rockets threw a bit of scare into them in Game 4 by cutting the margin to just five points with around a minute left. James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are getting the necessary help from their teammates. Rajon Rondo has been coming up big. James reminds me of Michael Jordan in not just terms of basketball greatness, but in leadership and obsession to win a title willing his teammates to perform at peak efficiency. This is what James said following Game 4: "Obviously, we've got to be better. We got to close out games the right way." Never mind that the Lakers still won by 10. James wasn't happy. I don't think the Rockets' heads are all there. Danuel House Jr. being kicked out of the bubble for a violation of health doesn't help their focus. House averaged 11.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in the playoffs. His departure further exposes the Rockets' lack of depth and fatigue issues.
09-11-20	Celtics -126 v. Raptors	Top	92-87	Win	100	20 h 36 m	Show
First it was OG Anunoby with a 3-pointer at the buzzer and then it was Norman Powell coming up big in two overtimes in Game 6. We've reached Game 7 now in this series and Toronto is out of lives. The stars shine in Game 7 - and the Celtics hold the aces with Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. Toronto was outstanding in Wednesday's Game 6. The Celtics weren't yet the game still went in double overtime. The Raptors also got to shoot seven more free throws in that contest. Toronto also made 41.3 percent of its 3-point shots. The Raptors hadn't hit 40 percent of their 3-point shots all series. Boston's bench and Walker are capable of far better than they showed in Game 6. The Celtics are 17-9-1 (65 percent) off a loss. They also have covered seven of their 10 playoff games with an average victory margin of eight points. I respect the heck out of the Raptors. But I want the Celtics going for me in this Game 7.
09-10-20	Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5		110-100	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
Now up 2-1 in the series, the Lakers smell blood. Stifling defense is the Lakers' ticket to beating the Rockets. It's something the Lakers are well aware of since they did it during the fourth quarter in each of their Game 2 and Game 3 victories. Houston is averaging 205 1/2 points during the past two games. The Rockets managed just 20 points in the fourth quarter during the last game. The Lakers are more than capable of playing elite defense. They ranked third in defensive efficiency and fourth in fewest points allowed during the regular season. The Rockets won the first game of this series still pumped and with adrenaline flowing after getting past Oklahoma City in seven games. But the Rockets have hit a fourth quarter wall running out of gas. Houston coach Mike D'Antoni admitted his team's legs got tired in the fourth quarter. The Rockets are the more fatigued team. The Rockets had a day off before Game 3. They'll have a day off before this Game 4. But their tiredness, energy and execution aren't going to be fully restored this late in the bubble with just one day of being idle. The Under has cashed 12 of the past 15 times the Rockets have played with one day's rest. The perception is the Rockets are just all about offense with James Harden and Russell Westbrook spearheading a smallball attack. That's misleading. The Rockets were middle-of-the-pack defensively. The Rockets are the smallest team in the league by design. But the Lakers aren't going to kill Houston inside because Frank Vogel believes LA's best lineup is a small one, too. There wasn't any Dwight Howard in Game 3. There are going to be plenty of 3-point shots. But the Rockets aren't accurate shooters. Both teams also are strong defending against shots from beyond the arc, each ranking in the top eight in defensive 3-point shooting percentage. The teams haven't been up-tempo either. The pace has been slow. That's a key factor that can't be overlooked in making this Under work.
09-09-20	Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics	Top	125-122	Win	100	8 h 25 m	Show
I see too much overreaction to the Celtics in this Game 6 following Boston's, 111-89, blowout victory against the Raptors on Monday. It was surprising how little energy the Raptors came out and exerted in that loss, which puts them on the verge of elimination. Zero chance the Raptors come out lethargic in this one with their season on the line. Boston has more star power, but there is not a class difference between these two teams. The Raptors are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. They are well-coached, battle-tested having won the championship last season and will play with tremendous energy. Yes, Toronto got buried in Game 1 and Game 5. But they won two of the other three games and had a chance to tie at the buzzer in the other one. The Celtics are an elite Eastern Conference team. So is Toronto. It is a mistake to disrespect the Raptors.
09-08-20	Heat -144 v. Bucks	Top	103-94	Win	100	18 h 57 m	Show
Maybe the Bucks rise above the ashes and stay alive in this series. Milwaukee avoided a painful 4-0 sweep by winning Game 4 in overtime despite missing Giannis Antetokounmpo for nearly the last three quarters. That was a great team effort by the Bucks. But I also see it as their lone highlight of this series. The Bucks are not going to win this game because of three major reasons: 1. Miami is a nightmare matchup for them. 2. Antetokounmpo is unlikely to play because of a sprained ankle. If he does, he'll be severely hobbled. 3. Milwaukee's mental frame is shot due to a loss of confidence and lack of focus that was caused by leading the boycott following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in its home state. Jimmy Butler is now the best player on the court with Antetokounmpo ailing. The Heat are able to exploit the Bucks' perimeter defense while their own defensive strength takes away Milwaukee's strong offensive elements of scoring off the fast break and scoring inside. The Heat gave up the fewest fastbreak points in the league and ranked in the Top 5 in defense inside the paint. Butler and Bam Adebayo are two of the premier defensive players in the NBA. These matchup edges have helped the Heat beat the Bucks in five of seven meetings this season. Now the Heat smell blood. The Bucks aren't right in the head and the great Giannis is hurt. Too bad for Milwaukee because up until the season was put on hold, the Bucks were the best team in the league. That certainly is not the case now.
09-07-20	Clippers v. Nuggets +9		113-107	Win	100	19 h 50 m	Show
The Clippers blew out the Nuggets in Game 1. The Nuggets, though, came back to beat the Clippers, 110-101, on Saturday. There was nothing fluky about Denver's win either. Nuggets coach Michael Malone made good adjustments and Denver outplayed LA on both ends. The Nuggets swarmed Kawhi Leonard. It was a gamble that paid off. Leonard had a horrible shooting game and the rest of his teammates didn't step up enough. The Clippers entered the reboot having the best bench in the league. But I've not been impressed with how their bench has played during the resumed season. Some of it has been lack of timing since key reserves were missing. The Clippers are back to full strength, but their depth is way overrated. Leonard and Paul George draw superstar labels. However, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray provide Denver with needed star power and go-to scorers so crucial in playoff basketball. Having solid two-way player Gary Harris back is another important and perhaps overlooked element the Nuggets have. Doc Rivers is highly articulate and an excellent player coach. I don't consider Rivers a great strategist, though, and adjustments are needed by the Clippers following their Game 2 upset loss. I see the Nuggets, with their confidence bolstered, staying within single digits of the Clippers.
09-07-20	Celtics -105 v. Raptors	Top	111-89	Win	100	16 h 17 m	Show
The Celtics have more star power than Toronto, are deeper and have the best coach in the Eastern Conference if not all of the NBA in Brad Stevens. OK, so then why is this series tied 2-2? A miracle 3-point play with one-half second left in Game 3 and Boston missing 35 of 42 3-point shots in Game 4 are the reasons. Toronto plays outstanding defense. But the Celtics missed 22 of 27 uncontested looks from beyond the arc in the last game. I expect the Celtics to make a much higher percentage and for stars Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown to play much better in this Game 5. The Celtics are due to bring their "A" game. Even if that doesn't happen, though, I like the Celtics' depth as the series goes deeper and fatigue becomes more of a factor.
09-06-20	Rockets v. Lakers -5.5	Top	109-117	Win	100	20 h 7 m	Show
Lakers minus 5 1/2 vs. Rockets We've seen this occur before with the Lakers. Just like in LA's previous playoff series, the Lakers were ambushed in Game 1. LA lost to Portland and now was blown out by the Rockets in the series opener. The Lakers responded by destroying the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 while winning the next four games in that series. Part of that Game 2 victory was because the Trail Blazers were tired and in a letdown spot. That could happen to the Rockets, too, since they were coming off a grueling 7-game series against the physical Thunder. LA hadn't played in six days before Game 1. The rust should be off now for the Lakers, especially their reserve and role players who were outplayed. It shouldn't have happened, but the Lakers also were caught off guard by the Rockets' speed. They won't be anymore. LeBron James won't let it happen again.
09-05-20	Raptors v. Celtics +1	Top	100-93	Loss	-106	17 h 42 m	Show
It took a miracle play with a half-second left, but the Raptors got their victory against the Celtics. That happened in Game 3 on Thursday when OG Anunoby hit a long corner 3-pointer to pull out a 104-103 Raptors win. The Celtics still are fuming about that loss. I consider Boston the superior team and the Celtics sure won't be lacking incentive after two days of watching and hearing about the Raptors' tremendous in-bound play to Anunoby. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU versus the Raptors this season. The Celtics have the star power Toronto lacks without Kawhi Leonard. The Celtics have several go-to player options. The Raptors don't have anyone proven to carry them in playoff crunch time since Leonard departed. Boston leads this series yet hasn't played its best basketball yet. That "A" game is due to come right here. The spread couldn't be lower, but note Boston has covered 75 percent of the time in 24 instances of being an underdog this season. The Celtics also have covered six of their seven playoff games. If the 76ers didn't hit a couple of meaningless long 3-pointers in the final 30 seconds off a loss, the Celtics would have an unbeaten postseason spread mark.
09-04-20	Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers	Top	112-97	Win	100	19 h 27 m	Show
The Lakers very well could be the best team in the NBA - if they are on their "A" game. I don't think we see that here, though. We certainly didn't see it in the Lakers' Game 1 series matchup against Portland. The Trail Blazers upset the Lakers, 100-93, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs in that series opener. LA opened that series having finished with the worst offense of any of the bubble teams. The combination of LA stepping up its game and Portland running out of gas and being severely banged-up resulted in the Lakers winning the next four games. This brings us to this stage. The Lakers have been idle since Saturday. Six days between games is too long. So there is likely to be some rust. The Rockets struggled with the Thunder before dispatching them in Game 7 on Tuesday. It's a short turnaround after a physical and emotional series. But the Rockets do have a full day to rest and recuperate. They are in a bubble, too. So they should have their full focus and concentration. James Harden is thrilled to be rid of rookie defensive ace Lugentz Dort. There isn't a player in the league who can guard Harden as effectively as Dort. Certainly the Lakers don't have one. The closest might be Alex Caruso. If the Lakers try him on Harden they're going to give up offense. Caruso is 5-for-28 in 3-point shooting since play resumed. I'm confident Harden will return to his normal dominant self free of the pesky Dort. The key is Russell Westbrook. He was plenty rusty returning from a quad injury. But he's had three games now to get back into shape. Westbrook presents a tough matchup for the Lakers. The Rockets are 2-0 against the Lakers in their last two meetings, one of which came in the bubble. Houston won those games by an average of 13 points. The Lakers have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored.
09-03-20	Raptors -108 v. Celtics		104-103	Win	100	16 h 25 m	Show
It's not a surprise the Celtics lead the Raptors 2-0 in their Eastern Conference Series. Boston has shot 44.7 percent from the floor, while Toronto is hitting just 38.5 percent of its field goals. The Raptors have made only 26.3 percent of their 3-point shots. The positive for the Raptors is they have played their trademark strong defense. The series could be tied 1-1 if Toronto didn't blow a 12-point second half lead. But so far Boston's stars have outshined Toronto's top players. Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet all need to step up. Nick Nurse has to make adjustments because this is where the Raptors really miss Kawhi Leonard. I see this happening. The Raptors don't have the Celtics' star power even with Boston missing Gordon Hayward. But I do expect the Raptors to step up and be smarter with their shots. Nurse has proven he's an above average coach and Toronto should play with super intensity down 0-2 in the series. Toronto's problems have been on offense not defense. So they are correctable.
09-02-20	Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 218.5		102-104	Win	100	14 h 8 m	Show
There are multiple superstars involved in this game. But look for defense to carry the day. There were a combined 194 points scored in Game 5 of this series. The Thunder-Rockets combined for 204 points in Game 6. Now we've reached Game 7 where the intensity should be at its peak. So I'm not expecting a scoring explosion, nor an up-temp, fast-paced game. The Rockets have a history of not producing their expected total during the later stages of a series. The Under has cashed 79 percent of the past 28 times the Rockets have played Games 5 through 7 in the postseason. Houston thrives on firing up 3-point shots. Only two teams ranked higher than Oklahoma City in 3-point field goal percentage defense.
09-01-20	Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 218	Top	78-80	Win	100	23 h 4 m	Show
The Over has cashed in five of the six games during this series. So why go against the grain now and play Under? There are several reasons starting with that these are a pair of top-11 defenses and neither team is up-tempo. There have been an average of 93.5 possessions per game during the series - the slowest pace of any playoff series. However, Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray have been on fire and the teams have been shooting and scoring above their norm. Now we have Game 7. If there ever is going to be defensive intensity and pressure it will come in this game. There's also a new name in the mix - Nuggets guard Gary Harris. He's back healthy and an excellent defender.
08-31-20	Heat +5.5 v. Bucks	Top	115-104	Win	100	17 h 30 m	Show
The Bucks lost to the Magic in the first game of their opening series. So they are certainly capable of losing to the Heat, who are much superior to the Magic and match up well to the Bucks. I envision a very tough series for Milwaukee, whose mental focus might not all be there. The Heat have playoff experience, added several strong pieces right before bubble play began and Erik Spoelstra is one of the better coaches in the league. The Heat have proven they can play with the big boys of the East going 8-5 versus the Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics. They dominated the Pacers going 7-1 against them. The Heat played tremendous in sweeping the Pacers in their first-round series winning all four games by nine or more points. Miami beat the Bucks in both of its meetings before the restart. The Bucks defeated the Heat, 130-116, in their lone bubble matchup. That score is highly misleading, though. Miami led by 17 points at halftime. The Bucks really wanted that game since they were off back-to-back losses and Miami didn't have Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Now the Heat are healthy. The Heat are a dangerous foe to Milwaukee because of several reasons. Bam Adebayo could be the most improved player in the league. He's a tremendous defensive player and did one of the best jobs of any player in the league in defending Giannis Antetokoumpo. The Bucks' lone defensive weakness is 3-point defense because they stress inside defense stacking the paint. The Heat shoot 37.9 percent from 3-point range. That was second best in the NBA. Milwaukee led the NBA in scoring. The Bucks did it by being strong on the fast break and also scoring from inside the paint. The Heat gave up the fewest fast-break points in the NBA and also rank among the top-five in paint protection. So it's not some fluke that Miami beat Milwaukee two of three times.
08-30-20	Clippers v. Mavs +10.5	Top	111-97	Loss	-110	14 h 53 m	Show
Only once have the Mavericks been a double-digit underdog this season - and they beat the Bucks straight-up on the road in that game. But the combination of the Clippers coming off a 43-point victory against the Mavericks and Dallas being without injured Kristaps Porzingis has caused the oddsmaker to make the Clippers favored by more points in this game than in any other during the series. Maybe the oddsmaker also is thinking Luka Doncic could be hobbled by an ankle injury. If that's the case it would be a mistake. The Clippers buried the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The teams have been idle since giving Doncic much needed recovery time. "The extra two or three days is a plus, certainly. In practice today, he looked pretty good, so going into tomorrow, I don't think he's going to be limited," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle was quoted as saying on Saturday about Doncic. Doncic's guts and heroics have been an inspiration for the Mavericks. They are facing elimination in this game down 3-2 so an all-out effort should be forthcoming. But what about the Clippers' motivation? I have to question it. LA can't be blamed if feeling overconfident coming off its 154-111 Game 5 win. The Clippers also know Porzingis won't be playing. Along with possible overconfidence, the Clippers could lack focus following the events of the past few days. They, along with the Lakers, reportedly were two of the clubs that voted to end the season. How much of their hearts will be in this game? On top of that the Clippers are being asked to cover double-digits. I don't see it.
08-29-20	Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 227.5	Top	80-114	Win	100	15 h 29 m	Show
There are a lot of dynamics that point to a lower-scoring game than the total posted: The teams last played on Monday. Possible rust. Russell Westbrook will make his series debut. This will be just his second game since Aug. 4. Possible rust. Focus could be an issue following the team's boycotting Wednesday's game in order to bring attention to social justice and racial inequality issues. Chris Paul was instrumental in those boycott talks. The series is tied 2-2 so this is a pivotal game. The Rockets live-and-die by the 3-pointer. No team fires up more shots from beyond the arc than Houston. Oklahoma City, though, finished third in 3-point percentage defense. Ace defensive rookie Lugentz Dort is healthy again for the Thunder. He's been a problem for James Harden, who has missed 28 of 39 3-point shots during the last three games.
08-29-20	Magic v. Bucks UNDER 226.5		104-118	Win	100	13 h 58 m	Show
Close out time here for Milwaukee. After being shocked in Game 1, the Bucks have won three in a row. The Bucks' defense stepped up in the fourth quarter of Game 4 when the Magic were semi hanging in holding Orlando to 25 points. I'm expecting a carryover of that Bucks' defensive intensity. The Magic lack the outside shooters to attack the Bucks' lone defensive weakness, which is just average in 3-point defense. Orlando is averaging only 103 points in its last three games. The Magic have shot just 28.9 percent from beyond the arc during these last three games. Defense is the Magic's strength. Orlando ranked fifth during the regular season defensively holding opponents to an average of 108.3 points per game. Unlike every other team in the bubble, the Magic don't have anywhere to go after their season is finished since the games are being played in Orlando. Magic coach Steve Clifford promised his team would go out with a supreme effort. That's going to come on the defensive end. The Bucks averaged 110.5 points during the first two games of the series. Milwaukee has scored 121 in each of the last two games. The Bucks shot 56 percent and 49 percent from the floor during these two last games. The Bucks are a good shooting team, but they aren't that good! The Bucks average 47.6 percent from the floor. There could be a rust factor, too, as Wednesday's game was postponed in the wake of the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis. So this will be the team's first game in five days. The Bucks could be bothered mentally, too, by all that has transpired since they were the ones who led the boycott of Wednesday's games.
08-25-20	Mavs v. Clippers -6.5	Top	111-154	Win	100	19 h 13 m	Show
Dramatic victory by the Mavericks on Sunday nipping the Clippers, 135-133, in overtime at the buzzer on a 3-pointer by Luka Doncic. That Dallas victory evened this playoff series at 2-2 and had Clippers coach Doc Rivers calling his team emotionally weak. It's too bad Dallas can't savor that victory longer. But the Mavericks can't. I don't see them being able to step up again in such a short time frame against a superior foe that isn't going to lack motivation and should be fully aroused. The Clippers are the deeper teams. That's going to matter more and more as the series continues. Doncic is playing on a tender left ankle. Kristaps Porzingis is a game-time decision with a sore knee. He missed Sunday's game, which put an extra burden on Doncic and the rest of the Mavericks. The Mavericks still won with tremendous effort and grit after falling behind by 21 points. But the bill for that effort comes due here. Dallas is 1-5 ATS the last six times following a victory. Even with that win and cover, Dallas still is 2-6 ATS the past eight times versus the Clippers. Paul George is way overdue to shoot better. He's missed 21 of 25 shots from beyond the arc during the last three games. The looks and open floor are there for George. It's not the Mavericks' mediocre defense that is causing George to miss. So a correction is coming. If George plays his normal stellar game, the Clippers should prevail by double-digits. Since I wrote this word has come down that Porzingis won't play. The line has gone up because of it but I still would lay single-digits with the Clippers.
08-24-20	Lakers -7.5 v. Blazers	Top	135-115	Win	100	16 h 28 m	Show
No doubt the Lakers are the superior team. That's not the question here, though. The question is can the Lakers cover this mid-size number? Yes for three big reasons: 1. LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Trail Blazers can't control either one. They don't have the elite defense to do that. 2. Injuries. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are both playing hurt and at less than 100 percent. Big man Zach Collins is out making the task of guarding Davis even more difficult. 3. A heavy fatigue factor working against the Trail Blazers. Portland has had to play every matchup, including an extra play-in game, like it was a Game 7 matchup. This has taken a huge mental and physical toll. The Trail Blazers have one the thinnest benches in the league, made worse by injuries. Their starters are exhausted because they've had to go extra minutes while not having the customary two days off between games, nor a home playoff game to get a crowd lift and raise spirits. Take a look at the foul situation from Saturday's Game 3. The Lakers shot 43 free throws to Portland's 19. Was the officiating bad? I didn't think so. The Trail Blazers are just a tired team so they can't play playoff-caliber defense without fouling. The Lakers made only 65 percent of their free throws. They also committed 17 turnovers. So LA didn't come close to playing its "A" level game. Yet the Lakers still won by eight points after winning by 23 points in Game 2. Portland is out of gas since its Game 1 upset win. That got the Lakers' attention. So don't expect a letdown from LA. The Lakers know to keep their foot on the gas here.