The Celtics have shown and proven that there is a clear class difference between these two teams with the 76ers missing Ben Simmons. 

 That much we know. The key question here is can Boston cover this large of a spread leading the series, 3-0?  I do. The 76ers had their chance to win Game 3 and thus make it a series. But they didn't. They choked.  The 76ers blew a lead with 2:14 left. Despite outrebounding Boston, 20-3 on the offensive glass, getting Jayson Tatum in foul trouble and shooting 10 more free throws than Boston, the 76ers still lost by eight points. So they didn't even cover as 6-point 'dogs.  Boston should play better. The 76ers are cooked - and they know it. No team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. I don't trust the 76ers' mental fragility. I think they are badly outcoached, too.  A double-digit Boston victory should be in the offering here. 

The Trail Blazers are heavily reliant on Damian Lillard. There are two major concerns about Lillard in this Game 3 series matchup. It's not just Lillard playing with a dislocated finger. It's how the Lakers defended him during their 111-88 victory this past Thursday. They boxed him at the top of the key, limiting his space to shoot. It threw off Lillard's long-range shooting.  If Lillard is hampered - both physically and strategically - Portland is in trouble. I don't trust the rest of its players to step up. CJ McCollum is dealing with a broken bone in his back. He's 4-for-13 from 3-point range in the series. Carmelo Anthony has missed 17 of 21 shots from the floor in the series and Jusuf Nurkic is 8-of-21 from the field.  On top of this, big man Zach Collins is out with an ankle injury. He's done for the playoffs. The Trail Blazers lack the defense to contain Anthony Davis. The Lakers destroyed the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 with LeBron James contributing only 10 points. Davis tore the Trail Blazers to shreds with 31 points playing less than 30 minutes. Portland could put Wenyen Gabriel on Davis with Collins out. The problem is Gabriel contributes no offense. The Trail Blazers were minus 11 during Gabriel's 21 minutes on the court.  I'm not expecting to see the Lakers squad of Game 1, the one that missed 32 of 37 shots from 3-point range and lost 100-93. The Lakers have huge matchup edges now and smell blood.  The Trail Blazers are banged up, don't play defense and are carrying a heavy fatigue load. They had to gut their way through eight seeding games and then the play-in game in two weeks to reach the playoffs. Many times Lillard had to carry them with monster scoring performances. Portland's players have logged far more tough minutes than the Lakers. The Lakers are the fresher and superior team. 

Let's go back to early in the second half of Game 1 with the Mavericks leading the Clippers by five points. It was at that point that Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks' best big man and second-best player, was unfairly ejected. That cost Dallas the game. The Mavericks then whipped the Clippers, 127-114, in Game 2 on Wednesday. It was clear Dallas was the superior team.  Keep in mind there is no homecourt advantage because these games are all inside the Orlando bubble. This reduces the zig-zag theory of situational basketball where the losing team comes back to win. Now the matchups and coaching are more pure.  So just where are the Clippers' advantages that justify them being made a mid-sized favorite for this Game 3? I can't find them. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. OK, two superstars. Luka Doncic and Porzingis give the Mavericks two stars, too, with Porzingis being the best big man on the court. You can make the argument that Doncic is as valuable as Leonard.  Coaching? I'll take Rick Carlisle over Doc Rivers especially when it comes to matchup strategy. I consider Carlisle one of the more underrated coaches in the league, while the media-savvy Rivers gets far more publicity.  Scoring? The Mavericks had the most efficient offense in NBA history.  Bench? The Clippers are supposed to have the best bench in the league. But key reserve Montrezl Harrell isn't in full shape yet having just played two games since being out and starting point guard Patrick Beverley likely remains out due to a calf strain. Dallas' reserves outscored the Clippers' bench by 30 points in Game 2.  Beverley's absence is huge. He's an ace defender. The Mavericks are guard heavy and tall in the backcourt.  

You can pull out the fork. The 76ers are finished. Mentally fragile, missing star Ben Simmons, unable to win away from Philadelphia and totally outcoached by the Celtics, the 76rs aren't rising to upset Boston in this Game 3 after losing by eight points and 27 points during the first two games of this series.   Minus Simmons, a tremendous two-way player, the 76ers are not only lost on offense but clueless defensively. They don't have the answers, nor the coaching acumen to stop the Celtics' pick-and-rolls and accurate perimeter shooting.  It doesn't matter if the Celtics are minus Gordon Hayward. They are a deep team and the 76ers can't slow down Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker.  The 76ers are 12-28 away from home. They quit in Game 2. They don't have the matchup answers, nor ability to come up with an effective defensive game plan to stop the Celtics.  Maybe the 76ers put forth a supreme effort here down 0-2 in the series. Maybe. But the Celtics still have way too many things in their favor to not cover this mid-range point spread number. 

Whenever the Thunder are underdogs they get my first look - and in this case last look.  I want the Thunder going for me today after the Rockets ambushed them, 123-108, on Tuesday.  Oklahoma City is 41-20 ATS as an underdog. That's a long-term covering rate of 67 percent. The Thunder also are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they played after losing by more than 10 points.  Houston was an underdog in Game 1. The Rockets have failed to cover eight of the last 11 times they've been favored.  The Rockets fired 52 shots from 3-point range in Game 1. They connected on 38 percent. Houston shot 48 percent from the floor and made 89 percent of its free throws. The Rockets live-and-die with the 3-point shot. But Oklahoma City is ranked No. 3 in the NBA in 3-point defense holding foes to 34 percent.  On the season, the Rockets shot 45.1 percent from the floor and made 34.5 percent of their 3-pointers. They also are a 79 percent shooting free throw team. So the Rockets were hotter than normal in Game 1.  I see the Thunder being more prepared for the Rockets' various perimeter looks and for Houston to not overachieve with its shooting like it did in the opener. The Thunder surrenders six fewer points per game than the Rockets.  Remember, too, that Russell Westbrook is out with a right quad injury. While Westbrook is sidelined, the Thunder could get back defensive ace Lugentz Dort. He's been out with a knee injury and is questionable for today's game. That would just be an added bonus if he were to play. 
  

The Mavericks are a dangerous team. Their record is 43-32. They have lost 13 times since Feb. 7 with more than half of those defeats occurring by 4 or fewer points.  The Clippers beat the Mavericks, 118-110, this past Monday to open this series. Dallas lost by eight points despite opening the game being outscored, 18-2. The Mavericks lost despite a bogus ejection of Kristaps Porzingis, their second-best player and top big man, less than three minutes into the third quarter.   LA has the better defense and more bench strength. However, the Mavericks finished with the highest-rated offense in NBA history. The Clippers are still working a number of their players back into the rotation after they missed the final regular season games in the bubble. This list includes Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley. 
  

Forget the Nuggets' 135-125 overtime victory against the Jazz two days ago. This game should go back to being playoff-style, defensive-minded basketball.  These are a pair of top-11 defenses who play slow, preferring a half-court style.  Both are minus key offensive players. Missing for Utah is Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic. The Jazz failed to convince anyone that they adequately replaced Bogdanovic's much-needed perimeter shooting.  The Nuggets have been without underrated Gary Harris and sparkplug Will Barton.  Rudy Gobert is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA. He'll be motivated to do better against Nikola Jokic, who outplayed Gobert in the opener. Same with the Nuggets defense clamping down on Donovan MItchell, who went off for an embarrassing 57 points against them in Game 1.  Torrey Craig had defended Mitchell well during the regular season when none of the three meetings went above 210 in regulation. The Nuggets may decide to give reserve defensive specialist Monte Morris more playing time in an effort to combat Mitchell. That would be another plus for the Under. 

The oddsmaker has reacted to the Raptors' 134-110 Game 1 victory against the Nets by adjusting the total four points.  I don't believe that's warranted.  The Raptors rank either first or second in the NBA in fewest points allowed, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. This is the best defense in the NBA and the scrappy, but scrub-type Nets aren't going to be able to dent it.  The Nets know they have to play more intense defense. It was too much culture shock for them going from just playing the Trail Blazers to the Raptors' tight defense. I think they will be better prepared. I also don't expect Fred Van Vleet to put up a career playoff-best 30 points when he hit 8 3-pointers against the Nets in the opening game.  The Raptors-Nets met four times during the regular season. The total never was this high in any of those games. The teams averaged 216 points in those games.

Now it's time for the Bucks to get serious. The Raptors and Celtics, their main competitors for the Eastern Conference crown, each won their opening playoff games on Monday. Both covered the spread, too. A combination of urgency, Orlando injuries and the Magic's poor history of stepping up versus strong competition bodes well for the Bucks covering even as double-digit favorites. The Magic are 3-12 ATS the last 15 times going against above .500 opponents. The Bucks owned the Magic this season going 4-0 with a winning average margin of 17 points. The Bucks not only led the NBA in points per game at 118.7, but also gave up the fewest points in the paint. The formula to beat the Bucks is to be hot from 3-point range and be able to control Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Magic rank 25th in 3-point accuracy and lack a defensive stopper to deal with Antetokounmpo.  Aaron Gordon is best suited to guard Antetokounmpo. Gordon, however, is doubtful due to a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent. Not ideal when taking on arguably the NBA's best player. Gordon isn't the only player hurt for Orlando. Jonathan Isaac is out as is backup point guard Michael Carter-Williams. Both are strong defenders.  The Magic are likely to fall behind and they lack the necessary firepower to get back into the game. This hurts them, too, if things turn into a fourth quarter garbage affair because the Bucks have an excellent bench. So I doubt Orlando's back-door capability. 
  

The feeling here is the Celtics have been laying in the weeds. They are going to be dangerous in these playoffs and are a much better team than the 76ers especially with Philly missing injured Ben Simmons and with Joel Embiid once again not 100 percent.  Boston is 22-14 away from home. Philadelphia is 12-26. But the 76ers' problems don't end there. The Celtics own edges at four of the five starting spots with Simmons out. Philly's lone matchup edge is Embiid against Boston's lunch-pail centers Daniel Theis and Robert Williams. Embiid suffered a bruised hand last Wednesday, too. So he might be hampered.  The Celtics are loaded with athletic wing players. Simmons was the 76ers' best defensive player. Boston can set up mismatches all across the court and savvy coach Brad Stevens knows how to do that especially given extra time. The 76ers can't counter a playmaker like Kemba Walker, nor do they have the scorers to match Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Haywood.  The 76ers didn't have enough time in the bubble to build the on-court chemistry needed to beat a high caliber opponent with their new starting lineup of Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Embiid, Josh Richardson and Shake Milton. Those five had limited minutes together during three of their last four seeding games.  It doesn't bode well for the 76ers that they surrendered 53 points to T.J. Warren and 51 to Damian Lillard during the seeding games. 

Portland can be a dangerous No. 8 seed. But the Trail Blazers are not at their best when laying mid-range points. They are 6-13-1 ATS the past 20 times laying points to a below .500 opponent.   So I'm liking underdog Memphis in this point spread range. The Grizzlies are in must-win mode and have the young talent to pull off the upset. They lack Portland's experience. That negative, though, is reduced by the matchup being played at a neutral site with no fans.  If the Trail Blazers lose, they are not eliminated like the Grizzlies would be with a loss. As the No. 8 seed, the Trail Blazers would get another chance on Sunday to play the Grizzlies. Only then would Portland be eliminated if it were to lose.  This is going to be the Trail Blazers' third game in five days. They have played three close games beating the shorthanded 76ers, Mavericks and depleted Nets by a combined seven points. Brooklyn nearly upset the Trail Blazers on Thursday, losing 134-133. The Grizzlies are more dangerous than the Nets.  Memphis also will be in action for the third time in five days. However, the Grizzlies are younger and off a confidence-boosting victory against the Bucks on Thursday.  The Grizzlies give up three fewer points per game than the Trail Blazers. 

Each team has gone a surprising 5-2 during the reboot. The line is large here because the Trail Blazers clinch the No. 8 seed in the West with a victory while the Nets' playoff spot is locked at No. 7 in the East. The Nets will meet the Raptors in the first round of the playoffs.  So the assumption is the Trail Blazers will bury the Nets. That's an assumption I'm not buying into.  First, let's examine Portland. The Trail Blazers are in the eighth spot in the West. They are 34-39, which is one-half game ahead of the Grizzlies and Suns. Those two teams are 33-39. The Spurs are still in the hunt at 32-38.  The Grizzlies, Suns and Spurs all play afternoon games. The Trail Blazers-Nets is the lone night matchup. So there's a chance the Trail Blazers may already have clinched a playoff spot before they even play. The Grizzlies are facing the Bucks. The Suns are taking on the Mavericks. The Spurs draw the Jazz. Portland's intensity would go way down if its playoff spot already is determined. Portland coach Terry Stotts would likely heavily reduce the playing time of his starters, too, especially CJ McCollum, who is playing with a broken bone in his back.  But let's say that scenario doesn't happen. The Nets still are very live here. They have gelled under interim coach Jacque Vaughn producing strong efforts while displaying excellent chemistry. Brooklyn has beaten both the Bucks and Clippers in the Orlando bubble.  The Nets held out Caris LeVert, Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen during their victory against the equally depleted Magic two days ago. Word is all three of those players will be back against the Trail Blazers.  Vaughn was quoted as saying, "We talked about having some rhythm going into the playoffs. So all guys in that starting unit will be available to start. We'll see how the game progresses, but I'm looking forward to getting some rhythm back on the floor."  Damian Lillard draws all the publicity. But LeVert is an excellent player. Harris is underrated and Allen has thrived with increased minutes. The Nets also have been getting a major contribution from unheralded guard Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. He scored 26 points against the Bucks hitting 5 of 7 3-pointers.  The Trail Blazers, even with motivation, aren't some dominant team that can easily cover double-digit spreads against spunky underdogs. They beat the Mavericks by three points and 76ers by three points in their last two games. The 76ers played without Ben Simmons and lost Joel Embiid in the first quarter. 
     

Ordinarily it would be dangerous to go Under in a game involving these two teams. Neither team plays defense and neither's team coach is any good. But these are unique and different circumstances.  Both teams are out of the playoff chase now after being eliminated on Sunday.  So concentration could be an issue. More important, though, for the Under is the number of important scorers who are not going to play.  The Pelicans are holding out Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Jrue Holiday. Those are their three best offensive players. The Kings won't be playing De'Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley III. Kent Bazemore might not play either. The key is Fox. He's the Kings' main offensive guy and sets a fast tempo for them. His absence really hurts their offense. 

The Heat are going to be healthy for this matchup getting back Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. 

 The teams last met on Jan. 14 and the Heat won by 14 points. There was bad blood in that game between Butler and T.J. Warren.  The Heat are in bounce back mood after losing to the Suns while missing Butler and Dragic. Miami has covered 20 of the last 27 times following a loss. Indiana, on the other hand, is off a victory against the Lakers. 

The Rockets are 3-1 since play resumed. They are playing for playoff seeding and aren't going to give up a game to the Kings, who aren't playing defense and haven't looked good. The Kings realistically know their playoff hopes are gone since they've gone 1-4 in the bubble.  The Kings gave up 140 points in a loss to the Pelicans this past Thursday and then lost to the short-handed Nets on Friday. This is their third game in four days. They are dazed and demoralized.  Houston has too much firepower and incentive for the Kings to stay close.

The prideful Spurs aren't giving up on trying to make the playoffs for a record 23 consecutive seasons. They are still alive, but can't afford to take a loss to the Pelicans.

 I don't see that happening. San Antonio has a better record than New Orleans. The Spurs have covered four of the last five times they've been an underdog.  The Spurs are capable of playing much better than they did in their last game, a 119-111 win against the short-handed Jazz this past Friday.  The Pelicans have talent. But they are not well coached. There is a huge coaching disparity between Gregg Popovich and Alvin Gentry.  The Pelicans are heavily reliant on Zion Williamson. They have a minus 10-point difference when he's not on the court. Williamson has averaged fewer than 20 minutes a game during the resumption of the season.  New Orleans has played a weak schedule. The Pelicans' last three games were against the Wizards, Kings - who they lost 140-125 to - and Grizzlies. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. This marks their third game in four days. 

OK, I'm on the Suns' bandwagon. Phoenix is the lone unbeaten team in the Orlando bubble. The Suns suddenly are live for a playoff spot. They are playing at a high level and will have the best player on the court with Devin Booker as Jimmy Butler is out. The Heat are 6-7 this season when Butler hasn't played. The Heat also likely will be without Goran Dragic. He's not 100 percent recovered from an ankle injury. This has put added pressure on rookie Kendrick Nunn, who is struggling without Butler and Dragic out. Nunn has missed 23 of his last 30 shots.  The Heat have clinched their playoff berth so they don't have the incentive and intensity the Suns have. 

The Suns are always live for going Over the total with their up-tempo pace and bottom-12 defense. Now the Pacers are playing much faster, too. They've adjusted their offense to feature T.J. Warren with big man Domantas Sabonis sidelined.  Warren is averaging 39.6 points in Indiana's three games in Orlando. Victor Oladipo also is rounding into shape. He's averaging 18.3 points since the season resumed.  Both teams rate in the top eight in offensive efficiency since play started again. 

Both teams are 3-0 since the NBA has resumed. The Pacers are a legitimate playoff team. The Suns are not. Phoenix still could be on Cloud 9 after upsetting the Clippers, 117-115, on Tuesday.  T.J. Warren has emerged as a star during bubble play. He'll be sky high to duplicate his huge scoring against the Suns, his former team.  The Suns are heavily reliant upon Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. The Pacers have a tough frontline to combat Ayton, an excellent defender in Malcolm Brogdon to help bother Booker and are a much deeper team. 
 

The Jazz don't have the urgency the Grizzlies do because their playoff ticket is punched. The Grizzlies are putting their postseason chances in peril having gone 0-3 since play resumed. The Grizzlies blew a game to San Antonio, losing by two points. They lost a matchup to Portland in overtime and fell to New Orleans by 10 points two days ago. The Grizzlies got good looks at the basket against the Pelicans. They just couldn't hit their shots. Memphis has the talent and coaching to adjust and fix that.  Utah is 2-13-2 ATS the past 17 times it has been favored. That's not a good role for them. The Jazz also have been having problems with their perimeter shooting. They've yet to adequately replace their second-leading scorer and top outside shooter, injured Bojan Bogdanovic. 

A combination of horrendous defense and Luke Walton's coaching shortcomings have contributed to the Kings going 0-2 in the bubble. Sacramento has lost 129-120 to the Spurs and 132-116 to the Magic. Both of those opponents shot better than 52 percent from the floor. Dallas also is seeking its first win in the Orlando bubble. The Mavericks fell to the Rockets and were surprised by the Suns.  Even though the Mavericks are all but locked into the No. 7 seed in the West, their 0-2 mark doesn't sit well with Dallas coach Rick Carlisle.  So both teams should have a sense of urgency for this matchup. I don't just see the Mavericks being a level higher than the Kings, but two levels higher. Dallas has one of the best offenses in the league. There is no chance of the Kings slowing down Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Those are easily the two best players on the court.  Carlisle also is a far superior coach to Walton.  The Kings surrendered 132 points to Orlando. It's scary to think how many points the Mavericks can put up on them. 

I'm expecting an intense matchup here as both teams are 0-2 in the reboot and fighting for a playoff spot. So I'll take the points.  Yes, the Grizzlies played Sunday against the Spurs, losing 108-106 on two free throws at the end. Memphis also fell in overtime to Portland. This marks their third game in four days and second in two days. Perhaps that's why this line is inflated in my view. But the Grizzlies are a young team and have fresh legs following the long layoff. Fatigue shouldn't be a factor this early in the Orlando bubble. The Grizzlies actually have excelled in this situation covering seven of the past eight times they played without rest.  The Pelicans have loads of talent. But they commit too many turnovers, lack defense, are not well coached and Zion Williamson has had his minutes reduced. Williamson has played just 15 and 14 minutes during the Pelicans' first two games of the resumed season. Not only is this good from an opposition standpoint, but Williamson's lack of playing time has kept New Orleans from finding its rhythm after the long break. 

The Mavericks are several tiers above the Suns. They are a tremendous scoring team and are a bit below-the-radar even though they are 40-28. Dallas has lost by four or fewer points in six of its last eight defeats.  Dallas still is steaming from its last game, a 153-149 overtime loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Mavericks blew a 3-point lead with three seconds left in regulation. Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS following a loss.  The Mavericks now step way down in class. The Suns were only invited to Orlando to fill out the number of teams. On top of this, Phoenix is a bit fat and happy after opening the rebooted season with a 125-112 victory against the Wizards, who are the worst team in the reboot.  The Suns lack the Mavericks' depth especially with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Aron Baynes both out.  Phoenix is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games. 
 

Talent-wise, the 76ers do hold an edge on the Pacers especially with Indiana missing emerging star Domantas Sabonis. He's out due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

 But there other factors that point to this being a very close game. Each team is 39-26. So it's an important matchup for playoff seeding. A loss wouldn't be devastating for the 76ers, though, because they drew a very easy schedule in this reboot of the season. Philadelphia's next four games following this one are against the Wizards, Magic, Trail Blazers and Suns. None of those teams has a winning record.  The 76ers were practically unbeatable at home. But away from Wells Fargo Center, Philly went just 10-24.  There are many questions for the 76ers such as: Can they be trusted as mid-sized neutral site chalk against a solid playoff team like the Pacers? Is Shake Milton a reliable point guard? Can Ben Simmons make the transition to power forward and be as effective without handling the ball so much? Is Joel Embiid fully healthy after missing the 76ers' last two scrimmages with a strained right calf?  The Pacers have solid depth and Victor Oladipo is expected to play. He was just rounding into his All-Star form when league play was halted.  

The Spurs are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1997. This is a must-win spot for them. Sacramento needs to win, too, to keep its outside chances alive. San Antonio is 27-36. Sacramento is 28-36.  The Spurs' best big man, seven-time All Star LaMarcus Aldridge, is out. The Kings' top big man, Marvin Bagley III, is out. Sacramento's best player is DeAaron Fox. He leads the team in points, assists and steals. Fox has been dealing with a sprained ankle. He may not be 100 percent. Certainly he's going to be rusty.  Center Jakob Poeltl has looked good when Aldridge has been missing. The Spurs actually were outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions when Poeltl was on the floor instead of Aldridge.  This is the first game back for each team since March. It's a no-brainer that Gregg Popovich gives the Spurs a monster coaching edge against Luke Walton especially in these circumstances.  The Kings are much better in an underdog role. They are just 5-12 (29 percent) the past 17 times when laying points.  

A combination of a neutral site, no fans and more than a 4-month layoff helped produce two Unders during the NBA's two Thursday's opening games of the resumed season. The Jazz-Pelican matchup went under by 19 points and the Clippers-Lakers game fell 16 points below the total. This matchup has the makings of an Under, too.  Both the Bucks and Celtics have a lot of star power. So it's easy to think offense with these teams. The Bucks do average the most points per game in the NBA. However, these are two excellent, well-coached defensive teams also. Boston is the third-ranked defensive team in the NBA giving up 106.8 points per game, while Milwaukee ranks fifth allowing 107.4 points a game.  Each team is using this eight-game reboot to prepare for the playoffs. Their priority is to fine-tune for the postseason and avoid injuries. The Celtics are only going to play Kemba Walker 14 to 20 minutes a game. Walker has been bothered by a sore knee. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, the Bucks' two best players, aren't likely to play huge minutes either.  The Bucks were somewhat embarrassed following a 124-103 scrimmage loss to the Pelicans earlier in the week. So their defensive intensity could be raised. Expect vanilla offenses as neither team wants to show much since they could meet again in the Eastern Conference Finals when the stakes are raised. 
 

I believe the better team is the underdog especially with the Lakers being without guards Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. The Clippers are at full strength and have the strongest bench in the league.  The clubs met three times this season. Every game was at Staples Center, which is the home floor for each of them. So neither team had a home court edge. This is significant because they are now playing at neutral site Orlando.  The Clippers beat the Lakers two of three. The Clippers are 7-1 during their last eight games with that lone defeat occurring to the Lakers, 112-103. Note the Clippers were 2 1/2-point favorites in that contest. So the line value is obvious. Bradley and Rondo played significant roles in that win.  Bradley had one of his best games of the season with 24 points while Rondo dished off seven assists. Bradley is an ace defender so his big scoring game was an added bonus for the Lakers. Bradley, though, isn't playing because of Coronavirus concerns and Rondo is sidelined following thumb surgery. 

I'm going to take an early position on this game by locking into this number not knowing for sure if Zion Williamson is going to play. Even if Williamson is unavailable, I still like the Pelicans to cover this short number.  New Orleans has all of its players healthy. The Pelicans still have loads of star power with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball, who was playing his finest ball when the season shut down.  The Pelicans have far more motivation than Utah. The Pelicans can't afford to lose. The Jazz can. Utah already has its playoff ticket punched even if it were to lose every game in Orlando during this reboot. So the Jazz are using these reboot games to tinker and fine tune for down-the-road playoff competition. Winning is not paramount to them at this stage.  The Jazz need to find scoring having lost their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic, for the season due to a wrist injury. Utah is going to greatly miss Bogdanovic's long-range shooting and marksmanship. There's also the question if Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, their two best players, can get along. They were feuding following the season being postponed after Gobert tested for Coronvirus. Their games do not complement each other.  The Pelicans won all of their scrimmages, including impressively defeating the Bucks, 124-103. They have looked crisp and sharp. 

The Nets are a pesky underdog. They have covered five of the last six times getting points and are in an excellent spot to cover the spread again.  The Lakers are coming off impressive victories against the Bucks this past Friday and rival Clippers two days ago. The Lakers host the Rockets on Thursday in a much bigger matchup than this one.  That makes this a major letdown situation for the Lakers.  Brooklyn is playing its second game under interim coach Jacque Vaughn having opened his era with a 110-107 home win against the Bulls this past Sunday. One of Vaughn's changes from former Nets coach Kenny Atkinson was starting and giving more minutes to center DeAndre Jordan at the expense of Jarrett Allen. Jordan helped the Nets outrebound the Bulls, 50-31. He is a better defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker than Allen.  LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to receive all the attention, but Jordan knows the Lakers well from his many years with the Clippers. Brooklyn has an underrated backcourt, too, with Spencer Dimwiddie and Caris LeVert, who is averaging 28.8 points in his last four games. 
  

Tuesday Free Play

Timberwolves plus 12 1/2 at Rockets 

 It has been eight years since the Timberwolves beat the Rockets in Houston. I don't expect Minnesota to end that 13-game road losing streak to the Rockets. I do expect, though, the Timberwolves to hang within single digits.  Houston isn't playing nearly well enough to be laying this many points to any NBA opponent. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing to the Knicks on the road by two, falling to the Clippers by 15 at home, dropping a road game to the Hornets by nine points and getting blown out at home by 20 points to the Magic two days ago. The Rockets have been cold with their 3-point shooting and are minus-36 rebounding during their losing streak. That's the danger of going with the smallest lineup in the NBA. Houston also could be minus Eric Gordon, its third-leading scorer. He's questionable with a knee injury.  The major part of my handicap is a fade on the Rockets. But the Timberwolves do offer a top-10 offense. They have produced at least 115 points in 11 of their last 14 games. D'Angelo Russell is an accomplished scorer and shooting guard Malik Beasley is one of the more underrated players in the league producing nine 20-point performances in 13 games since coming from Denver.  Sure there's a chance the Rockets take their frustrations out on the Timberwolves. Keep in mind, though, the Rockets are playing their third game in four days and have a far bigger matchup on deck against the Lakers on Thursday. Houston is not a deep team either. So even in a worst case scenario for the Timberwolves of the Rockets getting things together, the backdoor should swing open if late-game garbage time should occur. 
  

Credit to Sacramento for not giving up on trying to make the playoffs. But the Raptors are two levels higher than the Kings and are in a good situational spot even though they are the road team.  The Kings are coming off an impressive, 123-111, road victory against the Trail Blazers on Saturday night. Sacramento, however, carries a heavy fatigue rating. Not only are they playing without rest, but this marks their seventh game in 11 days. Toronto has been idle the past two days. The Raptors are 14-2 the last 16 times they've played a below .500 opponent.  Serge Ibaka returned to the lineup in the Raptors' last game after being out the last three games with a knee injury. There's a chance the Raptors could get Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet back for this game. 
 

I understand defense is not exactly a high priority with these two teams. But a lot has to break right for the Pelicans and Timberwolves to exceed this high Over/Under.  New Orleans is playing for the fifth time in eight days. So is Minnesota. The tempo should be slower than usual because of that fatigue factor.  The teams just met five days ago and it was a track meet with the Timberwolves pulling off a 139-134 upset road win. Both teams should be prepared for each other following this short turnaround especially the Pelicans in a rapid revenge situation.   
  

This is a crucial game for both teams being 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. I want Portland going for me here being home, having a healthy Damian Lillard and off a bad 127-117 road loss to the Suns on Friday. Portland is a much better home team going 17-13 compared to 11-23 on the road.  Lillard should have the rust off this being his third game back from a groin injury. I like Portland's talent level more than Sacramento's with Lillard, CJ McCollum and Hassan Whiteside.  The Kings haven't won at Portland since 2012, a string of 12 straight road losses.

Utah is in a letdown spot and carries a heavy fatigue rating. The Jazz are coming off a huge 99-94 road win against the Celtics last night. Now they are playing their fourth road game in six days. The Jazz have not been good as favorites going 3-11-2 ATS the past 16 times laying points.  The Pistons are down Derrick Rose. But they are expected to get back guard Bruce Brown. They acquired Jordan McRae to boost their backcourt and have been getting strong performances recently from guard Brandon Knight and big man Christian Wood. Detroit has been idle the past two days. So the Pistons hold a definite scheduling advantage. 
 

The Trail Blazers can't afford to lose this game in their quest to make the playoffs. Their journey is made easier with the return of star guard Damian Lillard. Phoenix has dropped four in a row. The Suns are down two key players with third-leading scorer Kelly Oubre sidelined with a knee injury and Deandre Ayton not likely to play because of an ankle injury. That should ensure another strong inside game from rejuvenated Hassan Whiteside.  Portland has won the last five it has played the Suns in Phoenix. 

Oklahoma City is in stop-the-pain mode having lost its last two games. Those matchups, though, were against the Bucks and Clippers. Now the Thunder step way down in class to face the battered Pistons.  The Pistons no longer have Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Blake Griffin is out for the season. Their two best players are Derrick Rose and Christian Wood. Rose isn't likely to play because of an ankle injury while Wood is questionable with a foot injury.  So this sets up as a kill spot for the Thunder. The situation also favors Oklahoma City. Detroit is home for the first time since finishing a four-game road trip at Sacramento on Sunday. Detroit is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games and 1-8 ATS at home versus foes that have a winning road mark.  The Thunder have been one of the top road spread teams covering 22 of their last 29 away games. They are 9-1 ATS, too, the past 10 times when playing without rest and and 9-1 ATS against opponent with a losing home mark.

The Hawks are getting some love here from the oddsmaker coming off consecutive home double-digit victories against the Nets and Trail Blazers. The key for the Hawks in those victories was their 3-point shooting.  Atlanta sank 37 of 81 3-pointers during those two games for 45.6 percent. I don't see the Hawks keeping up that long range accuracy. They rank last in the NBA in 3-point accuracy hitting 33.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.  The buy sign is back on the Grizzlies after they halted a five-game losing streak coming off break with a monster, 105-88, home win against the Lakers on Saturday. That was LA's lowest scoring total of the season.  The Grizzlies don't want to just give that victory back with a loss to the lowly Hawks, who are one of the five-worst teams in the NBA and at least 1 1/2 levels lower than Memphis. 

The bottom line for me is Orlando is not this many points better than Portland even playing at home and the Trail Blazers missing Damian Lillard. The teams met in Portland on Dec. 20 and the Trail Blazers won, 118-103. Lillard was instrumental in that victory.  But even without Lillard, the Trail Blazers should keep this close, if not win, taking on such a limited offensive opponent. Portland outscores Orlando by eight points a game. The Trail Blazers still have the best guard on the court in CJ McCollum. I also would take Hassan Whiteside against any of Orlando's big men right now. Whiteside has been rejuvenated this season leaving Miami. He's produced double-doubles in his last nine games.  Orlando doesn't have a strong home-court failing to cover in seven of its last nine games at Amway Center. 

The Kings just defeated the Grizzlies in Memphis two days ago. That was a big victory for the Kings. Sacramento concluded its four-game road trip going 3-1. Now, though, the Kings could run into an ambush and may also be short-handed. Sacramento may not have its full concentration and motivation returning home to face the lowly Pistons. Sacramento has failed to cover seven of the last 10 times it has been a home favorite. So the Kings are not good in this home favorite role.  The Kings could really be in trouble if their two top point guards, De'Aaron Fox and Cory Joseph, both are out. Each is questionable. Fox has been battling an abdominal injury while Joseph has a bruised heel.  Detroit has been getting strong contributions lately from youngsters Christian Wood and Brandon Knight along with a steady hand from rejuvenated veteran Derrick Rose. The Pistons are playing loose and had their confidence restored with a 113-111 road win against the Suns on Friday.
 

The 76ers and Clippers have plenty of star power. They also are underrated defensive clubs. Philadelphia ranks No. 2 in the NBA in scoring defense giving up 106.5 points. The Clippers rate No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage.  The 76ers are down their two best players, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. That greatly reduces not only their offense but tempo, too. Only two teams have played at a slower pace than Philadelphia during its past three games.  The Clippers are fully healthy for one of the few times this season. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley are all excellent defensive players.  Note this is an early West Coast start time. That's a plus for the Under, also. 

Miami received a much needed win beating the Mavericks, 126-118, last night. The Nets also played last night and were humiliated in the fourth quarter by the Hawks losing, 141-118, on the road. That was the most points the Nets had surrendered in three years.  I'm expecting a much stronger and focused effort from the Nets, who even with that loss still yield just two fewer points per game than Miami.  The Heat are a bit fat and happy after that victory. Miami hasn't been playing well just 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games. The Heat are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a point spread cover. Brooklyn is 5-2 ATS the past seven times following a victory.  The Nets have covered in four of their last five games against the Heat, including both meeting this season winning, 117-113, at home on Jan. 10 and falling, 109-106, as 4 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kyrie Irving didn't play in either of those games. 

The Nets have dominated the Hawks this season winning and covering all three meetings. Brooklyn's winning margin against Atlanta this season is 13 points. 

 Brooklyn is trying to hold on to the No. 7 seed in the East. This is important since the 8th seed would face the Bucks in the first round. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row.  The Nets are a better team than the Hawks and should be fully focused knowing their next two games are on the road against the Heat and Celtics, which loom as likely losses.  I would suggest locking in now if you can because the line would skyrocket up if Trae Young can't play. He's been battling an illness and didn't practice Thursday.

The Magic are at their best versus sub .500 teams covering 10 of the past 13 times against them. This includes a 115-113 road win against the Nets this past Monday when Orlando rallied from 19 points down in the third quarter. That win pulled the Magic within 1 1/2 games of Brooklyn for the No. 7 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  Orlando certainly doesn't want to give back that progress with a loss to the lowly Hawks. The Hawks can be pesky versus good teams, but are just 7-16-1 ATS the past 24 times taking on opponents with a losing mark.  The Magic surrender 14 points less per game than Atlanta. Orlando's top-ranked defense has the capability of frustrating John Collins, Trae Young and De'Andre Hunter. 

Considering the Bulls' massive amount of injuries, I would rate the Thunder three levels higher than Chicago. So I don't mind laying these road points. Oklahoma City has been a top road team covering 22 of its last 27 away games for 81 percent. The Thunder have covered their last 13 away games!  This is the Thunder's first road matchup since the All-Star break. The Thunder have looked great coming off break beating the Nuggets, 113-101, and Spurs, 131-103. They are 3 1/2 games out of being the No. 3 playoff seed in the West.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. The Bulls still are far from healthy being without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine. They are extremely thin up front. Zach LaVine and promising rookie Cody White are it for the Bulls right now. The Thunder have a deep rotation, including three very good guards. Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes. The Bulls have covered only 31 percent of their last 58 home games.

Brooklyn is 8-4 in its last 12 games. Orlando is 3-9 in its past 12 games.  Note, though, that half of the Nets' victories during this 12-game span were against below .500 foes. The Magic have played a far tougher schedule during their last 12 games drawing the Thunder, Heat twice, Celtics, Bucks, Clippers and Mavericks.   The Magic have struggled versus elite teams, but are 8-3 SU and ATS the past 11 times when meeting below .500 foes. This includes a 101-89 home win against the Nets on Jan. 6.  Orlando gives up five fewer points than Brooklyn. The Magic have been idle the past three days. This is a huge game for the Magic as they trail the Nets by 2 1/2 games for the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That's important because the 8th seed would draw the Bucks in the first round.  

I don't want to minimize Portland not having Damian Lillard here. It's a big loss. But Detroit has nothing anymore. The Pistons have gotten rid of Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris.  The Pistons have lost five in a row. I can't see them being competitive on the road against a borderline Western Conference playoff team that has motivation. The Trail Blazers can't afford to take the Pistons lightly. And they won't minus Lillard and being 3 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot in the West.  Even minus Lillard, the Trail Blazers still have the three best players on the court in CJ McCollum, Hassan Whiteside and Carmelo Anthony.  Portland is a top-eight scoring team that averages nearly 114 points. Detroit has no firepower anymore. The Pistons are averaging 96.6 points during regulation in their last five games.  
 

Decimated by injuries, the Bulls have lost eight straight games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Minus Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn. Denzel Valentine and Luke Kornet the Bulls committed a season-worst 26 turnovers in a 112-104 home loss to the Suns on Saturday.  Zach LaVine is Chicago's only legitimate NBA starter.  The Wizards had some momentum going 5-2 in their last seven games before All-Star break. However, the Wizards' shooting was off and their rust showed on Friday in their first game back from break. They lost, 113-108, at home to the Cavaliers.  Washington should shoot better than the 38.7 percent it did against Cleveland. The Wizards have a better lineup and bench than the banged-up Bulls with their YMCA roster. The teams just met 12 days ago and the Wizards won, 126-114, as 3-point home favorites. 

It's taken nearly all season, but the Nuggets finally have gotten healthy. Short-term, though, that may not be such a huge plus as the team has to integrated again and role players have to readjust.  The Timberwolves are thin up front without Karl-Anthony Towns. But their morale is better with D'Angelo Russell on board and Andrew Wiggins gone. Former Nugget Malik Beasley has looked good for Minnesota since coming from Denver on Feb. 5. He knows his old team so his presence should be an added plus. The Nuggets are not good in this role going 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 times versus opponents with a below .400 winning percentage. The Timberwolves have lost the first three games of the series to Denver, but only by an average margin of six points. None of their defeats were by more than nine points.  

Subtract Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine and the Bulls are in the argument for worst team in the Eastern Conference if not the entire NBA.  The battered Bulls have dropped seven in a row the latest come at home to the lowly Hornets, 103-93, two days ago.  Now comes the Suns, who are better than the Hornets. Analyzing this matchup I'll call Devin Booker versus Zach LaVine even. But the Suns hold talent edges at all the other spots especially with Deandre Ayton and Ricky Rubio. While the Bulls remain seriously undermanned, the Suns have gotten healthy with Dario Saric and Aron Baynes returning to the lineup.  The Suns do well in these spots covering 15 of the last 22 times on the road when meeting a foe with a losing home mark. The Bulls have covered only 30 percent of their last 56 home games.

If you're going to play without rest the best time to do it is following a week long layoff. Memphis is 5-0 ATS the past five times when playing on the second of consecutive days and should even hold an edge on the Lakers because of it. The Grizzlies lost to the Kings on the road last night. The Grizzlies are adjusted to West Coast time now and should have the rust off. The Lakers, on the other hand, haven't played in nine days. The last time the Lakers played with more than five days rest was on Jan. 31 and they lost, 127-119, to the Trail Blazers as 13-point home favorites.  LA also has a marquee look-ahead matchup hosting the Celtics on national television Sunday.  The Grizzlies have been red-hot even with their loss to the Kings Thursday night winning 15 of their last 20 games, while going 14-6 ATS.

Boston comes out of the All-Star break winning eight of its last nine. Minnesota is 1-15 in its last 16 games and lost 115-108 at home to the Hornets nine days ago the last time it took the floor.  The Celtics won't have Kemba Walker. They will Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward along with a much strong bench than the Timberwolves. Brad Stevens versus Ryan Saunders is a monster coaching mismatch.  The Timberwolves will be minus Karl-Anthony Towns. That leaves them D'Angelo Russell, who is learning the Timberwolves' system, and a bunch of garbage, including a very thin front line.  This is the first of a four-game road swing for Boston. The Celtics face the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Jazz after this matchup. Stevens knows the Celtics can't screw up this first leg of the road trip.  Boston is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. Minnesota is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times in similar situations.  The Celtics also have won and covered the past six times they've met the Timberwolves.

This line opened short. The Pacers are back on track after knocking off the Bucks in their final game before the All-Star break. TJ Warren may not play for Indiana, but the Pacers still hold a major talent edge with a now-healthy Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. The Pacers won't lack motivation as they are in revenge mode for a 92-85 home loss suffered to the Knicks on Feb. 1 when they weren't playing well. Indiana has covered in seven of its past nine away matchups.  The Knicks are in total rebuild mode and team chemistry was shaken when word leaked that interim coach Mike Miller isn't going to be back even though Miller has been a huge improvement on David Fizdale. 
 

Perhaps you think the Bulls are better than Charlotte? They aren't. Chicago is 19-36. Charlotte is 18-36. The Hornets are 2-1 versus the Bulls this season with their lone defeat coming by one point. Charlotte covered all three games versus the Bulls and is on a five-game ATS run against Chicago going back to last season.  The Bulls would be superior to the Hornets if they were fully healthy. That's not the case, though.  Center Wendell Carter Jr. is the only key injured Bull set to return today. Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr. and Kris Dunn all remain sidelined. Take away those players and Charlotte has the better roster. Zach LaVine gives Chicago the best player on the court. After that, however, the Hornets have Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington and emerging star Devonte' Graham, who is quietly averaging 18.1 points and 7.8 assists per game. Carter last played on Jan. 6 so he figures to be rusty and could be on a minutes restriction. Note the Bulls held LaVine to 4-of-19 shooting from the floor when the teams last played with Charlotte winning, 83-73, on Dec. 13 in Chicago.  Charlotte comes out of the break having posted consecutive road victories against the Pistons and Timberwolves. Graham is playing his best ball of the season.  The Bulls, on the other hand, have dropped six in a row. Among these losses were by 15 points to the Nets and by 12 points to the Wizards. Chicago isn't a strong home team especially versus weaker foes where they are 9-24 ATS the past 33 times hosting sub .500 opponents. 
  

Both the Clippers and Celtics are off bad losses. It's the Clippers who I want in this spot. No team has been better following a defeat. LA is 15-1 SU, 13-3 ATS off a loss.  The Celtics have plenty of stars. But it's the Clippers who have the two best players on the court in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard is having another brilliant season and is one of the hottest players in the NBA scoring 30 or more points in 10 of his last 13 games.  Jaylen Brown is questionable for the Celtics due to a calf injury. The Clippers have beaten Boston four straight times, including 107-104 at home on Nov. 20.
 

Portland has stepped up recently going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games, while defeating the Pacers, Rockets, Lakers, Jazz and Heat during this stretch. But the Trail Blazers couldn't keep it up against much-improved New Orleans on Tuesday, losing 138-117 on the road.  That defeat dropped the Trail Blazers 2 1/2 games in back of Memphis for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. So even though the Trail Blazers carry a huge fatigue rating - this is their fifth game in seven days - I'm expecting an all-out effort from a prideful bunch. This is close to a must-win spot for the Trail Blazers and they will be idle for the next nine days following this game.  The Grizzlies are playing well, but are flirting with danger shooting just 23.8 percent from 3-point range during their last five games. 

Down four of their five best players, it's no wonder the Bulls have lost five in a row. Chicago is missing injured Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter and Wendall Carter.  Now the Bulls have to face a below-the-radar Wizards squad that has won seven of their last 10 home games. Washington has gotten key role players Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Mo Wagner healthy and improved itself at the trade deadline picking up Shabazz Napier.  The Wizards have beaten far better teams than the Bulls during their last 10 home contests, including knocking off the Mavericks, Nuggets and Celtics. Washington won't lack motivation either after blowing a 12-point lead at home in a loss to the Grizzlies this past Sunday.  The Bulls are 4-8-1 ATS the past 13 times when taking points. Chicago averages nine fewer points per game than Washington. 

The Magic finished 20-9 to make the playoffs last season. They are going to need a similar kick to achieve that this season being nine games below .500. The Magic need to start immediately and this matchup sets up for them. Orlando has had a day rest and is stepping way down in class after losing 111-95 to the Bucks at home on Saturday. Now the Magic go from playing the best team in the league to one of the two worst teams in the NBA. Orlando has covered seven of the last nine times versus sub .500 opponents.  The Hawks rallied from eight points down in the final 90 seconds of the first overtime to defeat the Knicks, 140-135, in double overtime at home on Sunday. That was just Atlanta's 14th win in 53 games. The Hawks went all out in beating the Knicks as four players logged at least 47 minutes with big man John Collins going 49 minutes.  Now the Hawks take to the road where they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 away matchups. Atlanta remains thin up front as recent acquistion Clint Capela won't play due to a heel injury. Besides the urgency of needing to beat the Hawks, the Magic won't be taking Atlanta lightly either as they are 0-2 against them this season.  

The Clippers buried the Cavaliers, 128-103, when they hosted them on Jan. 14. I doubt the Clippers win by 25 points again, but I do believe they beat the hapless Cavaliers by double-digits even if Kawhi Leonard sits out this game.

 Cleveland has lost 12 of its past 13 games, including the last five. The Cavaliers did pick up Andre Drummond. He could make his Cleveland debut here. It's going to take time, though, for the Cavaliers to adjust to Drummond, who is a better fantasy player than an NBA player.  The Clippers should be in an angry mood after being humiliated, 142-115, by the Timberwolves on the road last night. The Clippers have a strong history of responding well following a loss. They are 23-7 ATS in that role and 7-1 ATS the past eight times after losing by double-digits.  Cleveland has failed to cover in six of its last seven home contests. 
 

If the Grizzlies are serious about holding on to the last playoff spot in the Western Conference they need to win a road game such as this. Memphis has covered the last five times it has been favored.  The Grizzlies had won six of seven before losing, 119-107, to the 76ers on the road this past Friday. No shame in that as Philadelphia is a dominant 23-2 at home.  Now Memphis steps way down in class. The Wizards are a little fat and happy, too, after shading the Mavericks, 119-118, at home on Friday when Bradley Beal made a layup with 0.2 seconds left. Washington is 3-7 ATS the last 10 times following a victory.   The Wizards rank last in the league in defense. The Grizzlies took advantage of the Wizards' porous defense to win, 128-111, in the first meeting on Dec. 14. It was the fourth time in the last five meetings the Grizzlies have covered against Washington.

Even though Dallas won't have injured Luka Doncic and are playing without rest, they still should beat the Hornets by more than this point spread. Charlotte has turned into one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Hornets have lost 12 of their last 13 games with the lone victory during this span coming against the Knicks at home. The Hornets really have problems stepping up in class. They are 4-12 ATS the past 16 times when meeting above .500 opponents. Dallas is coming off a tough 119-118 road defeat to the Wizards last night. The Mavericks didn't play well and were knocked off on a buzzer-beating layup by Bradley Beal. Dallas not only has incentive to bounce back, but also strong revenge motivation, too. Charlotte stunned the Mavericks, 123-120, in overtime as 11 1/2-point road 'dogs during the first meeting.  The Mavericks are very strong in this role going 12-3-1 ATS as road chalk.  The Hornets could be missing several of their rotation players. Cody Martin is in concussion protocol and veteran forward Marvin Williams is expected to sign with another team possibly the Bucks. 

Jimmy Butler isn't likely to play and Miami has a losing road record at 12-13.  OK, now that those two items are out in the open, I still expect Miami to win this game. Better team, better coach that's why.  The Heat are off a 128-111 road loss to the Clippers this past Wednesday. Miami doesn't play again until Sunday when it is at Portland. So the Heat should be fully focused. They are 20-5-1 ATS following a defeat.  I consider Miami's Erik Spoelstra one of the better coaches in the league and Sacramento's Luke Walton one of the worst.  The Kings are once again playing for the future. They have been dreadful at home going 3-12-1 ATS the past 16 times. 

Aside from Zach LaVine, the Bulls are fielding a junior varsity lineup due to their many injuries. Guard Kris Dunn is the latest Bulls casualty. He's out with a knee injury joining Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. on the sidelines.  The Bulls can't wait until All-Star break to try to regroup. They are minus their No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 leading scorers. This is their first game back from an 0-3 road trip that concluded with losses to the Nets and Raptors by a combined 42 points. Those defeats put Chicago 14 games below .500, its low mark of the season.  New Orleans is on the upswing. The Pelicans were playing well even before Zion Williamson joined the lineup. There's a chance Williamson doesn't play here because of a sprained toe, but New Orleans still has way more talent than the Bulls with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick.  The Pelicans are dropping way down in class having just played the hot Grizzlies, Rockets and Bucks. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS the past nine times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulls have failed to cover 20 of the last 26 times as a home underdog and are 1-8 ATS versus the Pelicans at home.  The teams met on Jan. 8 in New Orleans and the Pelicans easily handed the Bulls, 123-108. 
 

Yes, current form is important. But this is trumped by situation when it comes to the long grind-out season of the NBA. The Jazz have that key element going here along with a powerful home history against the Nuggets. Utah has lost four in a row. The Jazz also haven't played in four days. They are going to be ready for this matchup especially after losing six days ago to the Nuggets, 106-100, on the road. The Jazz played at San Antonio the previous night before losing to the Nuggets. Utah still might have beaten Denver if star guard Donovan Mitchell would have had just a normal game. Instead, Mitchell had one of his worst games of the season missing 11 of 12 shots from the field.  This time around it's the Nuggets who are without rest facing a revenge-minded, ravenous Jazz squad. Denver is coming off an impressive, 127-99, home win against the Trail Blazers Tuesday night.  Jamal Muray returned from injury for Denver aginst the Trail Blazers. However, forward Jerami Grant suffered an ankle injury. Denver already is without big men Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee. Michael Porter could be out, too, severely restricting Denver's frontcourt depth. Grant, Millsap and Plumlee are Denver's best interior defenders. Rudy Gobert should be able to dominate inside while an obviously highly motivated Mitchell should produce big in the backcourt.  Denver is 4-11 ATS following a victory and 3-7 ATS when playing without rest. The Nuggets also have failed to cover in 10 of their last 11 visits to Salt Lake City losing on the road to the Jazz the past nine times. 

The Hornets just lost lost 112-100 at home to Orlando for their 11th loss in 12 games. So why get involved with them here besides the obvious taking a generous amount of points? The Hornets outrebounded the Magic by nine and outplayed them in the paint. Orlando's strength is its frontcourt. The Magic won, though, because they uncharacteristically buried 16 of 34 shots from 3-point range. The Magic are 29th in scoring and 28th in 3-point field goal percentage. Charlotte is slightly below average in 3-point defense ranking 19th.  Charlotte has covered the past five times following a double-digit home loss. The Hornets also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times when playing without rest.  The other side of this equation is Houston. The Rockets are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot. They just beat the Mavericks and Pelicans at home. The Mavericks were minus Luka Doncic and the Pelicans got caught peeking ahead to their nationally televised matchup against the Bucks today while adjusting to how to play basketball with Zion Williamson. After this matchup, the Rockets meet the Lakers in LA on Thursday in a nationally televised game. So this matchup isn't a high priority for Houston.  The Rockets aren't expected to have big man Clint Capela nor Russell Westbrook, who hurt his thumb against the Pelicans on Sunday. So Houston likely will be without two of its three best players. The Rockets figure to play small ball again going without anyone taller than 6-foot-6. The Rockets did that against the Mavericks and Pelicans and got away with it despite getting outrebounded by a combined 35 boards in those two games. Charlotte has several unsung, lunch-pail type big men who are adept rebounders. They can help keep the Hornets within this large point spread. 
  

No doubt the Pelicans are going to be sky-high for this nationally televised (TNT) home matchup now that they have Zion Williamson healthy and living up to his hype averaging 19.5 points and shooting 61.5 percent from the floor.  But a couple of things are being overlooked with this line opening too short in my view. The Bucks are the best team in basketball and they, too, will be highly motivated to perform well here. The small-market Bucks don't take nationally televised games for granted like the big market teams do.  Milwaukee has a lot of pride. That pride was stung when Giannis Antetokounmpo and other Bucks felt their team should have received more All-Star Game roster spots. The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games. All of those victories except one were by at least nine points.  The Bucks are at the top of their game. The Pelicans are 3-3 since Williamson returned from knee surgery. The Pelicans are still in the feeling out process with Williamson and his teammates. They are not fully in sync yet.  The Pelicans were not match for the Bucks when they lost 127-112 at Milwaukee on Dec. 11. Williamson didn't play then. But Antetokounmpo also missed that game. 

The Grizzlies may be ahead of schedule with their many promising young players. They are holding down the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with the Trail Blazers and Spurs chasing them.  I don't know if Memphis can make the playoffs. I'd be kind of surprised if the Grizzlies did finish ahead of the veteran Trail Blazers and Spurs. But I do know the Grizzlies have a deep pool of talented youngsters and can beat bad teams like the Pistons at home especially when the spot  is favorable as it is here.   Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games. The Pistons rank 27th in defensive field goal percentage and coming off a 128-123 home overtime victory against the Nuggets on Sunday. Detroit rallied from 21 points in the win. Prior to that victory, the Pistons had lost five in a row with the losing margin being by an average of 12.2 points. Derrick Rose suffered a groin injury against the Nuggets. He's not expected to play. Rose has been tremendous this season. He and Andre Drummond have been Detroit's best players by far. Rose is the Pistons' most complete player.  The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are itching to play again after being embarrassed by the Pelicans this past Friday, 139-111. That was the game following the Grizzlies' 127-106 road win against the Knicks that turned ugly at the end. Jaren Jackson sat out his one game suspension against New Orleans. He'll be play here. The Grizzlies also are hoping Brandon Clarke can play, too. He's been bothered by a sore hip.  Even with that loss to the Pelicans, the Grizzlies still have won 11 of their last 14 games. This includes a 125-112 road victory versus the Pistons on Jan. 24. Jackson scored 29 points in that win. 
 

The Suns are one of the more improved teams in the NBA. They have actually played better on the road than at home. Devin Booker has All-Star numbers. He should have been selected to be an All-Star. But all of this is trumped by the Bucks being the best team in basketball, being home and in an angry mood following a surprising, 127-115, home defeat to the road-weary Nuggets this past Friday.  That was just the Bucks' third home loss of the season in 25 games at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are 25-9 (74%) ATS following a defeat.  So no disrespect to the Suns, but I want the Bucks going for me in this spot. 

Forget the 14-1 record from Dec. 26-Jan. 25. Utah is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row with the latter coming in back-to-back road settings against the Spurs and Nuggets.  Now the Jazz have had a day to regroup and they gain a scheduling edge. They draw the Trail Blazers, who just won an emotional road game Friday night against the Lakers in the backdrop of Kobe Bryant's untimely death.  This is just the second time since Dec. 21 Portland is playing without rest. The last time was Jan. 18 and the Trail Blazers lost, 119-106, at the Thunder.  The Trail Blazers have surrendered their once lofty home-court edge. They are 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests.  The Jazz are a top-four Western Conference team. The Trail Blazers have been a major disappointment and wouldn't be in the postseason if the regular season ended this weekend.  The Trail Blazers are traveling back home saturated after last night's huge victory, Utah should be fully focused to end its losing streak knowing they won't be in action for another four days following this game. 
  

The Raptors have won nine in a row going 6-3 ATS. The Pistons are 15 games below .500. They've lost four in a row - all by double-digits.

 So I'm going to ride the much superior and hotter club against a dead Pistons team that has been a huge money-loser at home, 2-9 ATS in their 11 home contest.  The line is short because the Raptors played on Thursday and weren't that sharp in a 115-109 road win against the Cavaliers. Toronto should play better here.  The Raptors destroyed the Pistons, 122-99, when the teams last met in Detroit on Dec. 18. Look for a similar result here. 
 

If there is one team the Hornets can beat it's the Knicks especially on extra rest and being home.  Charlotte has not played since Friday when it fell to the Bucks in Paris. The Hornets are desperate to end an eight-game losing streak.  The Knicks remain short-handed in their backcourt and are a bit smug after beating their cross-state rivals the Nets on Sunday. Before defeating the Cavaliers in their last road game, the Knicks had lost three consecutive away matchups by an average of 26.6 points. 

It's not a misprint. If the season ended today, the Grizzlies would be in the playoffs. Memphis has come on winning eight of its last 10 games, going 7-3 ATS, to grab the eighth spot in the Western Conference.  Phoenix is much improved, too. But the Grizzlies are the better team with more balanced scoring and prime rookie of the year candidate Ja Morant trumping Ricky Rubio at point guard. Morant is averaging 17.4 points and 7.1 assists. Sparked by Morant, the Grizzlies are the highest scoring team in the league this month.  Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 15 of its last 16 games. Phoenix ranks 20th in scoring defense and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Suns enter this matchup a bit fat and happy having defeated the Spurs this past Friday in San Antonio. It was the Suns' first win there in seven years.  The Suns beat the Grizzlies on Nov. 2. Memphis has improved a great deal since then beating the Suns, 115-108, on Dec. 11 and 121-114 on Jan. 5. Both of those victories came at Phoenix. 

Utah is the hottest team in the NBA winning 18 of its last 20 games. The Jazz's last three victories have been by an average of 28.3 points.  Dallas is one of the most improved teams in the NBA, but this is a tough road spot for the Mavericks. The Jazz have been idle since Wednesday, while the Mavericks played on Thursday and earlier this week lost underrated big man Dwight Powell for the season with an Achilles injury.  The Mavericks beat the Trail Blazers in Portland on Thursday in their first game without Powell. I don't see them doing that to the Jazz, who can exploit the injury with Rudy Gobert playing at such a high level.  The Jazz have covered their last seven home games and are 13-3 ATS the past 16 times laying points. 

It doesn't matter than Karl Anthony-Towns is back. The Timberwolves remain terrible. They have lost seven in a row. Minnesota has been terrible at home all season winning just six of 21 times at Target Center. The Timberwolves have covered only 32 percent of their past 26 games. The buy sign is back on Houston after the Rockets beat the Nuggets, 121-105, at home two days ago. The Rockets play at Denver, Utah and Portland in their next three games. So they don't want to open this road trip with a loss to the worst team. 

The Raptors are healthy again and dangerous. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell and Marc Gasol are all back on the court. Toronto has gone off on a five-game winning streak covering four of those games. Toronto's average winning margin during its win streak is 16.2 points. The Raptors buried the Knicks, 126-98, when they last met on Nov. 27.  The Knicks are short-handed minus RJ Barrett and are 2-9 in their last 11 games. New York has surrendered 117 or more points in eight of their last 11 games. 
 

Home-court advantage, line value and rapid revenge all put me on the Trail Blazers.  Dallas and Portland have essentially traded places. The Mavericks have become a solid playoff team, while the Trail Blazers are now a lottery club. I accept that, but do believe Dallas is due for a regression - especially losing underrated big man Dwight Powell for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon - and Portland is due for an uptick.  The Trail Blazers shouldn't lack incentive having lost, 120-112, on the road to the Mavericks six days ago. Portland has beaten the Mavericks each of the last three times it has hosted them. Kristaps Porzingis looked extremely rusty on Tuesday in his first game back from missing eight games with a knee injury. This will be his second game since the injury.  Luka Doncic is a great guard. But so is prideful Damian Lillard, who won't want Doncic to show up his team at home. 

This is a true stop-the-pain game for the Rockets. They have lost four in a row with the latest being a 112-107 home loss to the Thunder on Monday. James Harden missed 16 of 17 shots from 3-point range. Harden is shooting 18 percent from the floor during this losing skid. Harden and the Rockets are overdue to perform much better. This spot sets up for them.  The Nuggets have beaten up five patsies in going 6-2 in their last eight games. Denver, though, is missing three starters - Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. This marks the Nuggets' third game in four days. The Nuggets have a terrible history in Houston losing the past seven times there. The teams meet again four days later in Denver. Houston hosted Denver on Dec. 31 and won, 130-104. That was the Rockets' 11th victory in the past 13 meetings versus Denver. 

This matchup sets up well for Washington. The Wizards are a very bad 5-17 on the road, but a far more respectable 8-11 at home.  The Wizards have been idle since Friday when they were embarrassed by 29 points on the road by the Raptors. They seek redemption at home and aside from John Wall, who has missed the entire season, have their key players healthy again with Bradley Beal, Thomas Bryant and Davis Bertans back in the rotation.  While the Wizards had the weekend to rest and game plan, the Pistons had to play Saturday night against the Hawks. The Pistons buried the Hawks, but this early Martin Luther King Day start time nearly makes this a back-to-back game. Detroit has failed to cover 10 of the last 12 times when playing on one day's rest.  Detroit hasn't gotten healthy like the Wizards have. The Pistons are minus Blake Griffin, Luke Kennard and Reggie Jackson. They are relying on youngsters Sekou Doumbouya and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, who are up-and-down. Derrick Rose is having a nice comeback season, but he no longer is able to play big minutes.  Note, too, that the Pistons have failed to cover in six of their last seven road games against the Wizards.

Indiana is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA giving up the sixth-fewest points per game and ranking seventh in defensive field goal percentage. The Pacers draw a banged-up Denver squad. The Pacers are seeking revenge for a 124-116 home loss to the Nuggets from 17 days ago. The Nuggets shot 53 percent from the floor and made 24 of 27 free throws in that game.  The Nuggets are likely to be missing three of their top five scorers with Paull Millsap, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris all injured. This means more minutes for Malik Beasley, Mason Plumlee and Michael Porter Jr., who aside from Porter, aren't scorers. The Nuggets lack a deep bench so don't look for an uptempo pace. The Under is 12-4 the past 16 times the Nuggets have played on two day's rest. This trend makes sense because Denver's Michael Malone is an excellent defensive coach. The Nuggets have clamped down defensively during their last two home games holding Charlotte to 86 points - 17 below the Hornets' average - and limiting the high-scoring Clippers to 104 points - which is 12 points under their average. 
 

No Joel Embiid and a 7-14 road record make the 76ers just a short favorite against the Knicks.  Despite those obstacles, the 76ers still are a much better team than New York rendering this point spread as being too short.  Philadelphia has defeated New York 10 straight times. Even without Embiid, the 76ers still are two levels higher than the Knicks. New York has multiple injuries in the backcourt, including one to shooting guard RJ Barrett. 

Oklahoma City is averaging 114.3 points in its last nine games. The Thunder have a deep and talented scoring backcourt.  Miami is great at home, but has a losing road record. The Heat are giving up an average of 119.6 points in their last three road matchups. Those games were against the Nets, Knicks and Pacers. The Thunder average the same number of points per game as the Nets and more than the Pacers and lowly Knicks, who produced 124 points against Miami.  The Heat, though, are averaging 116.8 points in their last five games.  This game is lined near pick, too, so overtime is more a possibility than normal. 

The Spurs' defense is way down this season ranking 26th. But San Antonio's offense has been coming around sparked by the hot shooting of DeMar DeRozan. San Antonio has produced 118 or more points in four of its last 5 games. The Heat are averaging 122 points in their last four games.  This has been an Over series, too, with the high side cashing six of the last 8 times.

The Suns find themselves favored by more points than they have all season. Is it justified? Maybe by the oddsmaker's perspective, but not by mine. The Suns are 4-9 ATS the last 13 times they've been favored this season. Their record at home is 8-14. They are 4-9-1 ATS during their last 14 home contests.  Charlotte can't beat or usually hang with good teams. But the Hornets have 13 victories versus sub .500 opponents. They play them tough. Charlotte is 5-2 the past seven times meeting a foe with a losing record. Terry Rozier, the Hornets' key player, is hot averaging 27.4 points on 51.1 percent shooting from the floor in his last five games. The Hornets have proven themselves on the road, too, covering eight of the last 10 times when going against opponents with a below .500 home mark.  Red-hot Utah blew Charlotte out in the Hornets' last road game. However, the Hornets upset the Mavericks in their road game before that one. 
 

Death, taxes and the Bucks reaching triple-digits. Those are the givens in life. The Bucks have scored 100 or more points in 63 straight games. That's the longest triple-digit streak in 24 years.  The question is how many points will Milwaukee get here? The Bucks have shot just 40 percent from the floor during their last two games producing only 104 and 107 points. I don't see the Bucks shooting this poorly for a third straight game. Sacramento ranks 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer is aware of the poor shooting and said the Bucks will be picking up the pace in this matchup, which is a strong indication for going Over. The Kings have been on a scoring spree averaging 117 points during their last four games. They play faster with De'Aaron Fox back in the lineup and being 100 percent.

Luka Doncic had a rare off-game when the Mavericks last played the Nuggets. That was back in October at Denver. Yet the Mavericks still won, 109-106. Doncic has been putting up monster numbers. The Mavericks' firepower is bolstered with Tim Hardaway Jr. back from a hamstring injury. It's a plus if Kristpas Porzingis can play after missing the past four games with a knee injury. I still like the Mavericks regardless of Porzingis' status.  The Nuggets aren't nearly as good on the road where they are 2-6-2 ATS when meeting a foe with a winning home mark. It's Denver's fifth consecutive away matchup and concludes its nine-day road trip. So there is a fatigue factor against them, too. Dallas is 11-5-1 ATS the last 17 times when favored. The Mavericks also are 6-2-1 ATS the past nine times hosting the Nuggets.
  

This spot sets up for the road favorite Nuggets. Denver is 1-2 on its current road trip, which concludes on Wednesday at Dallas. The Nuggets are coming off an embarrassing, 128-114, loss to the short-handed Wizards. Denver coach Michael Malone ripped his team following that humiliation.  The Nuggets are far superior to the Hawks, who are the worst team in the NBA at 8-28. Denver shouldn't lack incentive against this bottom feeder especially since one of the Hawks' rare victories was achieved against the Nuggets in the first meeting back on Nov. 12.  Atlanta is off a surprising, 116-111, home win against the Pacers this past Saturday. That was just the Hawks' second home win since Dec. 2. Atlanta is 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS in its past 13 games. The last time the Hawks won consecutive games was the first two games of the season.  The Hawks are dealing with injuries with John Collins (back), Jabari Parker (throat) and Cam Reddish (wrist) all hurt. 
 

I find this line too short. Miami is at least one level higher than Portland, has a strong home-court advantage and situational elements favor the Heat, too. Miami is 16-1 at home. That's the best home mark in the NBA. Portland is 7-12 on the road and has failed to cover in five of its last six away matchups. The Trail Blazers also are 0-5 ATS the last five times taking points.  The Heat should be fired-up after suffering an embarrassing 20-point loss to Orlando two days.  This marks Portland's third road game in five days. The Trail Blazers took advantage of a decimated Washington squad to beat the Wizards, 122-103, this past Friday. Before that victory, the Trail Blazers had lost five straight.  The Trail Blazers are thin up front with big men Zach Collins and Skal Labissiere out.  This is the first meeting of the season between these teams. Miami swept Portland last season winning the two games by an average of 9.5 points. The Heat are much improved this season while Portland has severely regressed. 

I expect the Warriors to give a strong effort at home after being embarrassed, 99-84, at home by the Timberwolves on Thursday. Golden State does have multiple injuries, but some of its promising young players are back healthy. Golden State has shown some resiliency, too, covering eight of the last 11 times following a loss. Still, the major basis of this handicap is a fade on the Pistons. They have multiple injuries, too, with Blake Griffin, Markieff Morris and Luke Kennard banged-up.  Detroit has lost and failed to cover in eight of its last nine games. The Pistons are 5-16-1 ATS on the road. Morale is bad with Andre Drummond being openly shopped as trade bait. 
 

Utah has been sailing below the radar. The Jazz are 9-1 in their last 10 games, 7-2 ATS. The Jazz had beaten the Magic 14 of the last 18 times, including 109-102, at home three weeks ago. The timing is good for Utah to continue its dominance. The rested Jazz catch the Magic off a big 105-85 win against in-state rival Miami. The Magic accomplished this without their best defender, Jonathan Isaac. He's out with a knee injury. Aaron Gordon returned to Orlando's lineup after being out with an Achilles injury. But Gordon's minutes may be limited since this is the second of a back-to-back game.  The Magic usually fail when stepping up in class. The Jazz are a level higher than Orlando. 
  

The Pelicans come in extremely well-rested having been idle the past four days. Brandon Ingram has become a star taking some of the sting of not having projected superstar rookie Zion Williamson.  New Orleans is playing its best ball winning a season-best four games in a row. The Pelicans' average win margin in these games is 14.3 points and they've done it against strong competition defeating the Rockets, Pacers and Nuggets in their last three games.  A major key in the Pelicans' turnaround has been defensive improvement. They've held five of their past seven opponents to 100 points or fewer.  The Lakers are just 3-4 in their last seven games. They have failed to cover seven of the last nine times laying points.  The Pelicans have strong incentive taking on the Lakers with Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart being former Lakers. The Pelicans played the Lakers tight in the first meeting, losing 114-110, at home on Nov. 27. New Orleans is playing much better now. 
 

This has been the most disappointing season record-wise Gregg Popovich has had in his long tenure with the Spurs.  Lately, though, the Spurs have show more life going 7-4. The Spurs defeated the Thunder, 121-112, at home back on Nov. 7 when they weren't playing nearly as well.  The Thunder have failed to cover the last six times they've played at San Antonio.  Oklahoma City is coming off a 1-point road win against the Raptors and a 5-point home win against the Mavericks. The Thunder are a season-best three games above .500. Oklahoma City isn't that good. This is the time to step in against them in this difficult road setting and in a crucial matchup for the Spurs. The Spurs are 14-18. Following this game, the Spurs play an away/home series against the Bucks and a road game versus the Celtics. They are going to be underdogs in each of those three contests. So this becomes a high priority game for the Spurs putting them in must-win mode. 

The Trail Blazers are in stop-the-pain mode after losing at home to the Suns, 122-116, this past Monday for their fourth consecutive loss.  Portland is having a disappointing season, but remain a far superior team to the Knicks. That was proven when the Trail Blazers destroyed the Knicks, 115-87, three weeks ago. It was Portland's sixth straight win against New York. The Knicks couldn't stop the Trail Blazers' star guard tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who combined for 58 points. New York is in big trouble again the backcourt against those two. The Knicks could be down to one healthy point guard, Elfrid Payton, as Frank Ntilikna (groin) and Dennis Smith Jr. (oblique) are both questionable.  Carmelo Anthony should be stoked to go all out returning to Madison Square Garden having starred for the Knicks for seven seasons. 

These are two slow-paced, strong defensive clubs each trying to end two-game losing streaks. Throw in an early start time and a 6-1 history to the Under during their past seven meetings and you should have another lower-than-expected final score.  Philadelphia yields the fourth-fewest points per game in the league. The 76ers also rate No. 1 in defensive rebounding.  Indiana gives up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NBA and also is sixth in defensive field goal percentage.  The Pacers may get starting point guard Malcolm Brogdon back from a hamstring injury. He's their leading scorer at 18.3 points, but also a strong defender. Ben Simmons is Brogdon's counterpart and he's also a very good defensive player.  This should be an old-fashion, half-court, intense matchup with playoff-caliber defense. 

This spread is much lower than what it normally is when these two teams meet. The reason being Giannis Antetokounmpo could miss a third straight game.  The Bucks beat the Hawks on the road and the Magic at home by an average of 18.5 points in their last two games, minus Antetokounmpo. I like Milwaukee here and will lock in now. If Antetokounmpo happens to play that would be a huge bonus.  Milwaukee is the best team in basketball. One of the Bucks' major strengths is how deep they are. They rank No. 1 in scoring and in both offensive AND defensive field goal percentage. The Bulls rank 27th in shooting percentage.  Chicao is 7-10 at home while the Bucks are 13-3 on the road. Milwaukee has covered the past seven times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400.  The Bucks have defeated their long-time division rival eight straight times, including by nine points at home and by 14 points in Chicago during the first two meetings this season. The Bucks have dominated the Bulls more when playing in Chicago winning the past seven times there by an average of 15.8 points. All of the victories at United Center during this span have been by 11 or more points. 

The Spurs could be the most inconsistent team in the NBA. They have been playing better lately, though, and are in a big home revenge spot. The Pistons embarrassed the Spurs, 132-98, four weeks ago in Detroit. I like Gregg Popovich in payback mode. The situation sets up for San Antonio, too. The Pistons are thin in the bakcourt with Reggie Jackson and now Luke Kennard out. Derrick Rose and Bruce Brown are less than 100 percent. Blake Griffin is batting aliments, too.  The Spurs are off a loss to the Mavericks, while the Pistons just destroyed the Wizards, 132-102, this past Thursday. The Pistons are 2-8-1 ATS following a victory. Detroit also has been miserable as a road 'dog posting a 3-11-1 ATS mark the past 15 times in that role.
 

It's not just two excellent defensive teams squaring off that point to an Under in this matchup. Both rank among the top seven teams in defensive efficiency.  This is a division rivalry. It's a very early start time - noon East Coast time. And the game is being played Christmas Day. All those factors are pluses for the Under. So is the situation for Toronto. The Raptors are minus three key injured players - Pascal Siakam, who is their leading scorer at 25.1 points, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell. The Raptors overcame a 30-point second-half deficit to stun the Mavericks this past Sunday. They then went into overtime against the Pacers on Monday. This almost is like a third game in three days with the early start instead of third game in four days. Look for the Raptors to slow things down because of their heavy fatigue factor. The Celtics have been playing at a slow pace ranking 27th in tempo during their last 10 games. 

The Spurs had started to turn around their disappointing season going 5-3 with victories against the Clippers and Rockets until losing, 134-109, at home to the Clippers.  That was an embarrassing loss. I see the Spurs recovering against the Grizzlies.  Memphis is 5-3 in its last eight games. Do note, though, that four of those victories have been against the Warriors, Wizards, Suns and Kings. Those are all bad teams.  The Spurs have revenge motivation for a 113-109 home loss to the Grizzlies last month plus the humiliation of falling to the Clippers this past Saturday.  This is priced around pick. I want Gregg Popovich going for me. 

The Nuggets have won five in a row and LeBron James is probably going to miss his first game of the season due to a muscle strain in his back.  Because of these factors the line is greatly reduced from what it normally would be with LA at home.  I will lay the short number not just because of the value factor, but because of the spot and my belief the Lakers will step up big time here to prove they can win at home without James. Let's start with the Nuggets. Their five consecutive victories have all come at home. They are a different team on the road. Denver is 1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS in its past five away matchups with the lone winner coming against the pathetic Knicks.  On to the Lakers. They are back from a road trip that concluded Thursday with a loss to the Bucks, the best team in basketball. The Lakers also lost to the Pacers before that game, perhaps looking ahead to the marquee matchup against the Bucks. Now the Lakers are home where they have covered 13 of the last 18 times. LA hasn't lost three games in a row all season. The Lakers are going to dig in hard here. Obviously it's a monster bonus if James somehow plays. But I am not anticipating that. I am anticipating Kyle Kuzma, their third-best player, to be back in action tonight. The Lakers still have the best player on the court in Anthony Davis. Look for prideful veterans Dwight Howard and Rajon Rondo to spark a strong bench effort, too, after each of them played poorly versus the Bucks. 
  

The Knicks have shown a pulse under new coach Mike Miller going 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  But mainly this handicap is based on fading the Bucks due to the spot. Milwaukee just beat the Lakers at home on Thursday in the marquee matchup of the season. It was a highly satisfying win for the Bucks. Following this matchup, the Bucks fly right back home to host the hot Pacers on Sunday in a much more meaningful game. So focus. concentration and overconfidence could hamper the Bucks in trying to cover this large road number. 
 

I understand this is bad versus bad. Only Cleveland is worse than Memphis. The Grizzlies have been playing better and I prefer their young talent over Cleveland's.  The Cavaliers did win their last game, holding off the Hornets, 100-98, this past Wednesday. But that was just the Cavaliers' third win in their last 19 games. They have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 games and are 3-8-1 ATS during their past 12 home contests. Only once all season have the Cavaliers won two in a row.  Memphis is 4-2 in its last six games and very well could be 5-1. The Grizzlies blew a 24-point second-half lead in a 126-122 loss to the Thunder on Wednesday.  The Grizzlies have covered the last four times they've met a below .500 opponent. Memphis youngsters Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks are all playing well.