Off a shocking loss to the Kings on Monday, I want the Warriors going for me today especially against the Lakers, a probable lottery bound team.

Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are both expected to play boosting the Warriors' chances. Neither played against the Kings. 

The Warriors should dominate all phases against the overmatched Lakers.

The Thunder give up the second-fewest points per game in the NBA. They have the sixth-best point differential per 100 possessions. And, oh yes, they have three superstars in their lineup - Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony along with an underrated center who does much of the dirty work, Steven Adams. Yet Oklahoma City is 8-11 SU and ATS. What in the heck gives with this team, anyways? I'm certainly not a fan of Billy Donovan as an NBA coach. He should go back to college. Westbrook, George and Anthony are all playing below expectations especially with their shooting and Oklahoma City can't win on the road going 2-8.  This, of course, begs the question of why back them as road chalk?  I admit, some of it may be a leap of faith. The Thunder are coming off a horrendous 97-81 road loss to lowly Dallas. That was back on Saturday. They've had to live with the sting of that for three full days. Now finally they get to play again.  So part of the handicap is based on situation. Oklahoma City has had ample time to rest and game plan. Orlando is home for the first time in nine days following a four-game road trip that conclued Monday night in Indiana.  The Magic are the coldest team in the NBA losers of nine in a row with six of those defeats occurring by double-digits. Orlando is surrendering an average of 117.4 points during its nine-game loss streak. Westbrook, George and Anthony should get well against such a terrible defense.  The Thunder average 12 more points per game than the Magic. Orlando doesn't defend well, shoot well and makes poor decisions on offense.  Oklahoma City is a bully. The Thunder can beat bad teams. The Magic aren't only bad, but they're soft, tailor-made for the Thunder to exploit.  Orlando has a bad history, too, versus Oklahoma City losing in nine of the past 11 meetings, including five of six at home.

This is a case of the better team getting points and coming off a tough loss. Minnesota blew an 11-point lead at home on Sunday falling to the Pistons, 100-97. The Timberwolves will be eager to redeem themselves for that slip-up here.  Yes, the Timberwolves are playing without rest. But Charlotte carries a fatigue rating, too. This marks the Hornets' third game in four days and fourth game in six days.  Minnesota easily handled the Hornets, 112-94, at home 15 days ago when also playing without rest. The Timberwolves dominated the boards in that victory outrebounding Charlotte, 54-40. The Timberwolves also did an excellent defensive job on Kemba Walker.  The Timberwolves have greatly improved their defense this month holding seven of their first nine November foes to 101 points or less. Walker is a very good player. But Jimmy Butler is better and Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Timberwolves the best big man. The Hornets just played the Bulls and beat-up Clippers. This represents a big step-up game for the Hornets.  
  

Phoenix averages 12 more points per game than Chicago, is home and some of its young talent are playing better. 

A matchp of marquee rookies Ben Simmons versus Lonzo Ball is drawing all the attention in this game. What's lost is how much the Lakers have improved their defensive performance. The Lakers haven't just gone Under in their last four games, but way, way Under. They've gone Under by a combined 94 points during these last four games, which were against the Celtics, Wizards, Bucks and Suns.  The Lakers have gone all the way from last in defense last season to fourth in points per 100 possessions this season. A strong commitment to defense, better rim protection courtesy of Brooke Lopez and Andrew Bogut and the horrendous shooting of Lonzo Ball has made the Lakers an Under team right now.  Simmons is a great young talent. So is Ball. But I'm more interested in the spot and total. The Lakers' last four games all came on the road. This is their first home contest in nine days. The 76ers are finishing their five-game, nine day road swing here. They are coming off a 109-105 win against the injury-riddled Clippers on Monday. The Clippers defense has fallen apart. They had surrendered an average of 117 points during their previous three games before meeting the 76ers, who scored 109. So the 76ers' jump shots could be off due to tired legs, while the Lakers' concentration level might be off hurting their offense more than defense, which is their fallback position.  Another factor in taking the Under is the 76ers and Lakers are the two worst free throw shooting teams in the NBA.  

Portland moved its record to 6-4 after beating Oklahoma City, 103-99, at home on Sunday. That was the Trail Blazers' first victory against a quality opponent.  But just when you begin to believe the Trail Blazers are indeed a good team they disappoint.  The Trail Blazers are now trying to win three in a row for the first time this season. Maybe they can defeat Memphis. But I'll take this many points to find out as I regard these teams as even and given Portland's below-the-radar big men injuries this becomes even a tougher matchup for the Trail Blazers.  The Grizzlies are as rugged and physical as ever. They rank No. 3 defensively and have a much stronger bench than the Trail Blazers. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are having big seasons. The Trail Blazers are going to have to compete on the boards against the Grizzlies minus injured power forward Al-Farouq Aminu and backup center Meyers Leonard.  Memphis defeated the Clippers, 113-104 on Saturday, but then came up flat against the Lakers on Sunday losing 107-102 after a gallant comeback failed. So the Grizzlies should be highly focused for this game. Portland is a bit fat and happy having posted narrow home victories against the Lakers, 113-110, on Thursday and Thunder on Sunday.  Not only did the Grizzlies defeat the Clippers, but they also have beaten the Warriors and Rockets twice. They are battle tested. Portland's victories have been against the Suns twice, Pacers, Lakers and Pelicans, who didn't have Anthony Davis, besides the Thunder win. So this is another step up game for the Trail Blazers. 

Dallas could be among the five worst teams in the NBA. But this spots sets up well for the Mavericks.

Dallas is one of the four worst teams in the NBA right now. The Mavericks are 1-8, their worst record since 1993-94. This proud franchise is in need of rebuild. The players know it. Rick Carlisle knows it. Mark Cuban knows it.  All of the Mavericks' losses except one have been by five or more points.  New Orleans is a serious playoff contender. No team can match the Pelicans' superstar Twin Towers of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Both rank among the top-five in scoring and rebounding. The Pelicans are going to hurt the Mavericks inside a lot. Dallas is one of the poorer rebounding teams in the league. The Pelicans, though, have lost consecutive games falling to the much-improved Magic and star-studded Timberwolves. This is the first of four road games in a row for New Orleans. The Pelicans should be focused and play with a great sense of urgency. That should ensure a victory here because the talent gap is huge.  Dirk Nowitzki doesn't have much left. Rookie Dennis Smith Jr. is the Mavericks' main man now and he's mistake-prone with bad shooting percentages. The Mavericks don't have the components to take advantage of the Pelicans' major weakness, which is turnovers. Dallas ranks 29th in defensive field goal percentage.  This is a major drop in class for the Pelicans after games versus the Cavaliers, Magic and Timberwolves. New Orleans has a good history of taking care of business against bad teams when on the road. The Pelicans have covered eight of the last 10 away times they've met a foe with a sub .500 record at home. 

This is a big total that would make sense - if it were posted on a Clippers-Lakers game last season. Things are much different this year. The Clippers don't have Chris Paul. The Lakers have Lonzo Ball. Both are among the reasons I like this game to go Under the total. The Clippers' offense is less explosive minus Paul. That's a no-brainer. But the Clippers' backcourt becomes much more hard-nosed with the change from Paul to rugged Patrick Beverley, one of the best defensive guards in the NBA.  Ball is the Lakers' new main man. He's a great passer, but not a high percentage shooter. Ball was limited to only 57 minutes during preseason because of a sprained ankle. He'll play tonight, but will have to deal with Beverley and the pressures of his first NBA game and the super high expectations the home fans have for him.  The Lakers gave up the third-most points in the NBA last season. Lakers coach Luke Walton made it a priority during preseason to stress defense. The Lakers allowed an average of 103.5 points per game in their six exhibition games.  "...I'm thrilled with the strides they're making," Walton was quoted as saying about the defensive progress his team showed during preseason. The Lakers acheived this without Andrew Bogut, who missed the preseason with a groin injury. Bogut, though, practiced this week and should play. He provides a shot-blocking presence for the Lakers that the Clippers have with DeAndre Jordan, another top defensive player. 

This is supposed to be the Cavaliers' game to win, right? The Zig/Zag theory points that way and so does the normal situational thinking of Cleveland down 2-0 in the series now returning home in a must-win spot. The oddsmakers think that way, too, having made a six-point adjustment in the line. 

The Cavaliers and Warriors didn't come close to going Over the total in Game 1 of their NBA Finals this past Thursday won by Golden State, 113-91.  There were reasons for this namely that the Cavaliers shot less than 35 percent from the floor and Golden State made only 42.5 percent from the field and shot only 16 free throws.  Now we have a Game 2 total that is nearly five points lower than Game 1. I don't believe this big of an over/under adjustment is justified. The pace for Game 1 was up-tempo. The superstarts - LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant - all had big games.  The shooting just was off. That's understandable since the Cavaliers hadn't played in a week while the Warriors had been idle for nine days. That's a lot of rust. Now the teams have been idle for just two days.  Until Game 1, the Cavaliers had scored 106 or more points during their previous 13 playoff games. Cleveland went into Game 1 averaging a playoff-high 118.3 points per 100 possessions. Golden State ranked No. 2 in the playoffs at 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Each team rated among the top three in offensive efficiency during the regular season, too.  Key Cleveland reserves Deron Williams and Kyle Korver failed to score in Game 1 going a combined 0-for-7 from the field.  Golden State committed only four turnovers. The Warriors led by 21 entering the final period and took their foot off the gas scoring only 20 points after putting up 93 points through the first three quarters.  Draymond Green and Klay Thompson combined to miss 22 of 28 shots from the floor, making only one-of-10 from beyond the arc. Thompson has been in a shooting slump, but it's hard to believe that either of these star players can shoot that bad again especially if the Cavaliers try to pay extra attention to Durant. 
  

These two teams met at Oracle Arena to begin the season way back on Oct. 25. The Spurs were 8 1/2-point underdogs for that one. Final score: San Antonio 129, Golden State 100.  OK, much has changed since then with one of them being Tony Parker is out with a ruptured quad. But not everything has changed to the detriment of San Antonio and for the betterment of Golden State.  Mike Brown is now the acting coach for the Warriors with Steve Kerr ill. Brown is a much better assistant coach than head man. He can't compare to Gregg Popovich when it comes to head coaching. I've been following basketball for more than 50 years and Popovich is the best head coach I've ever seen. Certainly he's in the top-five all-time.  The Spurs are riding the momentum of beating Houston, 114-75, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs to close out that series. That happened on Thursday. So the Spurs won't be rusty, but also have had two full days of rest and preparation. Golden State, on the other hand, hasn't played since Monday. That's too much time off between games. The Warriors very well could lose their edge because of the extended time off. Golden State has failed to cover seven of the last nine times when having had three or more days off.  If the Warriors come out rusty, off-kilter and cold they won't even win the game let alone cover this monster double-digit point spread.   The Spurs outrebounded the Warriors, 55-35, in that opening night victory. Golden State gave up 21 offensive rebounds, the most it allowed all season. Now the Warriors have become more cohesive since then, but rebounding remains a crucial area. The Spurs have a height advantage and two dangerous low-post scorers in Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, who got hot late in the Rockets series showing his criics that he is not overrated.  "If we give up offensive rebounds and they take more shots than us, it's going to be hard for us to win," Kevin Durant was quoted as saying when asked about this series.  Golden State has reached the NBA Finals each of the last two seasons. Neither time, though, did they meet the Spurs in the playoffs. So playing such a mentally tough and well-coached team in the playoffs is going to be a new experience. San Antonio is 13-6-1 the past 20 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage above .600. I respect the heck out of the Warriors. They have super talent. But the Spurs are not exactly chopped liver. As great as Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are, I would take Kawhi Leonard over anybody as far as being a two-way player. Leonard should be close to full strength, too, having been idle the past two days.  Popovich has the necessary defenders to throw at Curry, Durant and Klay Thompson with emerging Jonathon Simmons, Danny Green and Patty Mills, who is replacing Parker at point guard. Parker is a savvy veteran, but Mills is underrated and in his prime. Parker was over-the-hill. The Spurs also have Dewayne Dedmond, a below-the-radar player who has the necessary athleticism to bother Golden State.  The Spurs can milk their size. The Warriors can't do that. They need to hit their outside shots. San Antonio ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game. The Spurs also rated fourth in defensive field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point defense. Given all these factors plus the situation, it's my strong belief that this point spread is way out of whack. 

This is what Anderson was quoted as saying, "The more fast-paced tempo we have the better."

So the Rockets aren't going to adjust. They are going to play their style. Houston hit 19 of 43 3-pointers during Sunday's Game 4 for 44 percent. Cleveland led the NBA in 3-point percentage at 43.4 percent. The Rockets made just 12 of 39 3-pointers in Game 3 for 30.7 percent. However, the Rockets were just cold in that game as they missed on 19 of 24 3-pointers in which they had an open look at the basket.  

Let's rewind to each team's opening playoff series. 

Have to believe the Thunder can keep this game close trying to stave off elimination after having the Rockets edge them out in Oklahoma City this past Sunday. 

This is a matchup of the No. 3 scoring team, Denver, versus the lowest-scoring team, Dallas. The Nuggets average 111.8 points, third-best in the league. The Mavericks score just 98 points per game.  So why a play on the Over when on paper this total looks to be lined correctly?  If we go inside the numbers and look into the setting for this matchup it becomes clear the Over has a very good chance of coming in. The spot is this: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. So this becomes a no-pressure game that should have a loose, offensive-feel to it. The Mavericks are going with a lot of young, seldom-used players now. They have fresh legs, important this late in the season. But Dallas also will have back its leading scorer, Harrison Barnes. He rested during the Mavericks' last game, but will play here. Barnes averages 19.2 points. Denver ranks 27th defensively yielding 111.5 points per contest and also ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage.  Making this atmosphere even more loose is that this is Tony Romo's "Maverick for a Day" game. The former Cowboys starting quarterback is going to sit on Dallas' bench in uniform.   The Nuggets should get their points. If you discount their performance against the Pelicans, the Nuggets have averaged 119 points during their last 13 games. They've often played better on the road where the over has cashed in six of their last seven away contests.  The Mavericks are giving up an average of 109 points in their last four games, including allowing 124 to the Suns during their last game this past Sunday. Phoenix shot 55 percent from the field in that game.   This game also is lined in the pick range so overtime is a possibility.   

Toronto has won eight of its last 10. The Raptors are the No. 3 playoff seed in the East. They are clearly superior to the Pistons even without injured Kyle Lowery. Yet the Pistons currently are favored. I understand the reasoning. Detroit is home, extremely well-rested having last played on Friday, in must-win mode and draw the Raptors without rest. Toronto was blown out by 19 points on the road against the Pacers last night.  However ... none of those factors hold up under scrutiny.  Detroit realistically has no playoff shot being 2 1/2 games out. The Pistons need to sweep the rest of their games and hope other playoff contenders lose three more games. The Pistons aren't playing well enough for that to happen and their morale is bad.  Detroit is 2-9 in its last 11 games and 3-8 ATS. The Pistons' only victories during this span were against the Nets and Suns - two of the three worst teams in the league. Point guard Reggie Jackson is banged-up and so in the doghouse that he's sitting out for journeyman Ish Smith.   Playing five days ago also is too long of a layoff at such a late juncture of the season for the Pistons. Look for them to be rusty.  The Raptors have much better chemistry. They upgraded their defense at the trade deadline and only DeMar DeRozan logged big minutes last night.  

It has taken a while, but the Pelicans have gotten in sync with DeMarcus Cousins on board to join Anthony Davis. New Orleans has won eight of its last 11 games going 7-4 ATS. They have won their past six home contests, which is a season high, covering five of those games while beating the spread by an average of 12.6 points during this span. Cousins is playing his finest ball since joining New Orleans averaging 34 points and 12.8 rebounds in his last four games. The Pelicans are 5-1 the past six games when having Cousins in the lineup.  The Bulls had to come from behind to hold off the Hawks on Saturday winning by just two points Saturday at home, 106-104. This victory followed a great win by the Bulls against the Cavaliers. Chicago has three more road games following this matchup. Those games look much easier on paper as the Bulls face the Knicks, 76ers and Nets. This is the matchup where the Bulls face the most trouble.