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NBA Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-04-21	Clippers v. Kings +1.5	Top	99-104	Win	100	7 h 26 m	Show
The teams just met Wednesday in LA. The Kings won, 124-115. That put their record at 3-3 under interim coach Alvin Gentry, who replaced overmatched Luke Walton. The Kings are a better team under Gentry. They also have been idle since that Wednesday victory. The Clippers, however, will be playing for the sixth time in nine days. They are off a highly-satisfying, 119-115, tough win against the Lakers last night. Paul George rolled his ankle against the Lakers. So he may be out. He's LA's best player with Kawhi Leonard sidelined. The Clippers haven't been consistent all season adjusting to life without Leonard. The rested Kings could get back Harrison Barnes, who is having a career year averaging 19 points and 7.2 rebounds. This game sets up well for Sacramento with the situational aspects outweighing the Clippers' revenge spot.
12-03-21	Clippers v. Lakers -120	Top	119-115	Loss	-120	10 h 44 m	Show
Both teams have started the season slow. But I liked what I saw from the Lakers during the second half of their 117-92 win against the Kings this past Tuesday night. LA won that game without LeBron James, who is expected to play here. The Lakers are showing signs of getting better going 3-1 in their last four games. Their bench looked good against the Kings. I'm not seeing this type of improvement from the Clippers. They are 2-6 in their last eight games, including losing their last three. The Clippers have dropped down in class without injured Kawhi Leonard. The Lakers have a huge superstar edge now on the Clippers with James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook.
12-02-21	Pistons +12 v. Suns		103-114	Win	100	11 h 59 m	Show
Phoenix is having a great year. But this is a flat spot for the Suns sandwiched around games against Golden State. The Suns returned home from a four-game road trip and defeated the Warriors this past Tuesday. Following this game, the Suns travel to Golden State for a rematch against the Warriors on Friday. That's the game they are pointing to. The Suns won't have their leading scorer, Devin Booker. He suffered a hamstring injury and will be out several games. The Pistons have lost seven in a row. They are a young team and they play hard. Detroit has covered four of its last six. The Pistons often are undervalued. That's the case here given that the Suns will be minus Booker and are in a letdown/lookahead spot.
12-01-21	Mavs -2.5 v. Pelicans	Top	139-107	Win	100	7 h 21 m	Show
Look for the Mavericks to bounce back against the Pelicans, a team they beat at home, 108-92, as 9-point favorites on Nov. 8. That was the sixth time in the last eight meetings Dallas has covered against New Orleans. The Mavericks are 1-5, though, in their last six games and off a 114-96 home loss to the Cavaliers two nights ago. The Cavaliers are improved and Dallas had open looks in that game. The Mavericks just couldn't hit their shots. The Pelicans rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point defense. I see the Mavericks hitting their shots in this one. They catch the Pelicans returning home following a successful 2-1 West Coast trip. Both of those wins were against the Clippers. The Pelicans seem to have the Clippers' number. But this isn't a good spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans last were home on Nov. 24. So their focus could be off. They remain without Zion Williamson.
11-30-21	Lakers -4 v. Kings	Top	117-92	Win	100	12 h 51 m	Show
Just five days ago the teams met. The Kings prevailed in three overtimes, 141-137. Now the Lakers have rapid revenge. LA won't play again for the next two days following this game and will be at home when their schedule picks up. This should mean big minutes here for Laker superstars LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook since there's no reason to hold back. LA is the healthier team. The Kings could be minus rotation players Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes and Maurice Harkless. All three are questionable. The Kings have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been home 'dogs. The Lakers' sense of urgency has picked up after a slow start.
11-29-21	Pelicans v. Clippers -6.5		123-104	Loss	-105	11 h 58 m	Show
The Clippers have short revenge for a 94-81 road loss suffered to the Pelicans 10 days ago. The Clippers also have motivation after playing poorly on Sunday at home in a 105-90 home loss to the Warriors. LA is usually very good in these bounce back situations. The Clippers played during the day on Sunday so there is less of a fatigue factor. They step down in class drawing the Pelicans. New Orleans still won't have Zion Williamson and holds a worse fatigue factor in action for the fourth time in six days. New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road contests. The Clippers are 17-6 ATS the past 23 times following a loss of more than 10 points. LA has the long range shooters to take advantage of the Pelicans' 27th-ranked 3-point defense. The Clippers also won't be seeing the nightmare of Stephen Curry hitting from all over the court. New Orleans ranks 27th in scoring.
11-28-21	Pistons v. Lakers UNDER 216.5		106-110	Win	100	24 h 43 m	Show
Expect a lot of intensity in this one. It was just a week ago that Isaiah Stewart took after LeBron James after James struck Stewart in the face with a blow that was or was not accidental. It caused a fracas and resulted in short suspensions for both players. The Lakers won that game, 121-116, in Detroit. The Lakers shot 49 percent from the floor, well above their season 44 percent mark. The Pistons hit 44 percent of their field goals while their season shooting percentage is 40.5 percent. There were a combined 48 free throws taken. I don't expect the teams to shoot nearly that well. Since that loss to the Lakers, the Pistons have averaged 93.6 points in their last three games. Detroit ranks last in many of the major offensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. The Lakers aren't going to lack motivation after blowing a 13-point fourth quarter lead on Friday in a 141-137 triple overtime loss to the Kings. LA is feeling embarrassed about a 10-11 record. The Pistons know they don't have the scorers to keep up with the Lakers so expect a slow tempo, methodical game from them.
11-26-21	Wolves v. Hornets -128		115-133	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
Scheduling dynamics heavily factor into this one. Both teams are hot. Minnesota is on a five-game win streak, its longest in four years. Charlotte is 7-1 in its last eight games. This is the Hornets' lone home matchup during an eight-game span. Charlotte just concluded three road games. The Hornets go back on the road for four more away games following this matchup. So the urgency definitely is with Charlotte. The Hornets are 6-2 SU and ATS at home this season, winning and covering their past four. The two home losses occurred to the Celtics in overtime a month ago and to the Cavaliers by three points on Nov. 1. Charlotte had just upset Portland the day before playing the Cavaliers. The Hornets are not in a letdown spot here. Charlotte has been strong as a favorite covering 15 of the last 22 in that role. The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS during their past five games against Charlotte.
11-26-21	Suns -3 v. Knicks	Top	118-97	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
This is my NBA Game of the Month. Being a small market team on the West Coast isn't great for attracting national attention. Maybe that's why Chris Paul and his Suns teammates play well in their annual visit to Madison Square Garden. The Suns have beaten the Knicks in New York three straight times with their winning margin being by an average of 16.3 points. Going back to their last 11 times visiting the media center of the U.S., the Suns are 9-2 ATS. Phoenix is red-hot, winners of 14 in a row. The Suns are doing it with a total team effort. They have one of the deepest rosters in the league. Paul is healthy and putting up excellent numbers. Devin Booker is hot. Deandre Ayton is pulling down double-digit rebounds. When all this is happening, the Suns can take their place among the best teams in the NBA. The Knicks are struggling to achieve consistency. They are 3-4 in their last seven games. New York defeated the Lakers, 106-100, this past Tuesday. The Lakers were missing LeBron James. New York is 0-6 ATS the last six times following a victory.
11-23-21	Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 210.5		112-104	Loss	-110	10 h 56 m	Show
These two teams just met two days ago and the Clippers won, 97-91, for a combined 188 points. The total on that game was 208 1/2. Now it's slightly higher. I don't understand why? There's talk Luka Doncic could play after missing the last three games. However, Doncic aggravated his knee/ankle injuries during Monday's practice. So he's a long shot to play. Even if Doncic were to play, which I highly doubt, he figures to be rusty. The Clippers give up the fourth-fewest points and rank No. 2 in defensive efficiency allowing 99.8 points per 100 possessions. Dallas is an above average defensive team with a strong tendency to go Under. The Under has cashed in 68 percent of the Mavericks' last 20 games. The Clippers are still trying to figure things out offensively minus Kawhi Leonard. LA is averaging fewer than 97 points in its past five games.
11-23-21	Heat -10 v. Pistons	Top	100-92	Loss	-102	9 h 58 m	Show
The rebuilding Pistons aren't going to win many games this season. They had a great opportunity to beat the Lakers at home this past Sunday, but blew a 17-point lead to drop to 4-12. But that wasn't the major takeaway. Detroit's second-year center Isaiah Stewart tried to attack LeBron James after James caused Stewart to suffer a facial cut that required eight stitches. The benches cleared and Stewart had to be held back numerous times attempting to fight James. It was an emotional game for the Pistons. I doubt they can bounce back and keep this one close against a much superior and what should be motivated Heat squad. Stewart drew a two-game suspension for his actions. The Pistons also are short-handed in the backcourt with Killian Hayes out another two games due to a thumb injury. There's a fatigue factor working against Detroit, too. This marks the Pistons' seventh game in 12 days. The Heat opened their four-game road trip in bad fashion losing to the Wizards, 103-100, this past Saturday. Miami blew a 10-point lead during the final five minutes. The loss halted a four-game Miami win streak. So the Heat shouldn't lack incentive. They are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .400. The Pistons are 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they've met an above .500 foe. Miami's previous three victories have been by 15, 15 and 13 points.
11-22-21	Grizzlies +10.5 v. Jazz	Top	119-118	Win	100	9 h 42 m	Show
The Grizzlies certainly aren't going to lack motivation for this matchup. Not only are the Grizzlies off a highly-embarrassing,138-95, road loss to the Timberwolves two days ago that Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins called unacceptable, but they have playoff revenge. Utah eliminated Memphis in five games during the first round of the playoffs last season. Historically the Grizzlies have been strong in this type of situation going 19-7 ATS (73 percent) following a loss of more than 10 points. The Jazz, on the other hand, are fat and happy with three straight wins and covers. Those victories came against the banged-up 76ers, who were missing Joel Embiid, the Raptors, who were minus their leading scorer, OG Anunoby, and the Kings in their final game before they fired Luke Walton. Before losing to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies had rolled past the Rockets by 34 points and defeated the Clippers by 12 points. Look for the Grizzlies to get back on track with a competitive performance here.
11-20-21	Pelicans v. Pacers -7		94-111	Win	100	6 h 25 m	Show
The Pacers are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row. They draw the 3-14 Pelicans at home. New Orleans is off a rare win, defeating the visiting Clippers, 94-81, last night. The Pelicans aren't good and they are in a letdown situation. New Orleans won't be respectable until Zion Williamson returns. Of their last eight losses, seven have been by eight or more points. The Pacers nearly pulled out a road win against Charlotte last night after trailing by 25 points in the third quarter, but fell three points short. Indiana received a season-high 78 points from its bench. None of the Pacers logged more than 23 minutes last night, while three Pelicans played major minutes against the Clippers. Indiana holds a huge talent edge with Malcolm Brodgon, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner and Caris LeVert. The Pacers' starters will be highly motivated to play well after their poor performance last night.
11-19-21	Pacers v. Hornets -123		118-121	Win	100	8 h 51 m	Show
Short price here to back the Hornets, who have won four in a row and been playing better defense. Charlotte is mixing in more zone defense than before. The result is the Hornets have held their last four foes to an average of 98.2 points. Consequently, Indiana is enduring its worst two-game scoring stretch of the season. The Pacers have produced just 89 and 84 points during their past two games. There's also a fatigue factor for the Pacers as this marks their sixth game in nine days. Indiana has failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 visits to Charlotte.
11-18-21	Raptors +9.5 v. Jazz		103-119	Loss	-106	9 h 9 m	Show
Toronto is well coached under Nick Nurse and getting healthy with Pascal Siakam rounding into shape. That's why it's difficult for opponents to blow the Raptors out. Only twice in their last 14 games have the Raptors lost by more than eight points. The Raptors should be rested and well motivated here having lost their last two games and having had two full days off. Utah, on the other hand, is coming off a 120-86 home blowout of the undermanned 76ers from two days ago. Then there's the history between these two teams. Toronto has owned Utah point spread-wise covering nine of the past 10. The Raptors are a perfect 8-0 ATS during their last eight visits to Salt Lake City.
11-17-21	Mavs +8.5 v. Suns		98-105	Win	100	7 h 38 m	Show
The Suns return home following a three-game, four-day road trip that concluded Monday night in Minnesota. The Suns are fat and happy, winners of nine in a row. Feeding into the Suns' relaxed mind is knowing they don't have to worry about Luka Doncic. He's out with knee and ankle sprains. This sets up a classic underdog spot for Dallas. The Mavericks are playing well, too, winning five of their last six. The Mavericks not only will be motivated by triple revenge, but the challenge of their first game minus their superstar guard. I expect the rest of the Dallas' players to step up. Kristaps Porzingis has played well since returning to the lineup scoring 61 points in his last two games. Jalen Brunson has been an unsung star coming off the bench. He'll get more minutes now with Doncic out. The Suns' last two games were against bottom feeders Houston and Minnesota. Phoenix ranks last in strength of schedule. This is the Suns' toughest opponent during their last 12 games.
11-17-21	Celtics v. Hawks OVER 215.5		99-110	Loss	-110	8 h 7 m	Show
Reinvigorated after a four-game West Coast trip, the Hawks are averaging 124.5 points during the first two games of their current homestand. The Hawks are an explosive, high-energy team with youngsters Trae Young and John Collins to go with Clint Capela inside, long range sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanovic and instant offense off the bench from Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari, neither of whom play good defense. Atlanta could catch a break if Boston center Robert Williams can't play due to knee soreness. That also would be a plus for the Over. The Celtics are minus Jaylen Brown. However, the Hawks are giving up an average of 115.1 points in their last 10 games. The Celtics are off consecutive road games against the Cavaliers. This will be a welcomed change of pace, faster tempo game for Boston, which has played a number of half-court type opponents lately.
11-15-21	Magic +10.5 v. Hawks		111-129	Loss	-107	8 h 6 m	Show
There's not much to say in defense of Orlando. The Magic are the youngest team in the league, rank second to last in scoring and have the worst record in the Eastern Conference. So when you're playing on the Magic, like I am here, it's almost always a fade against the opponent. That's the case with the Hawks, who should not be favored by this many points. Atlanta opened its homestand beating the Bucks, 120-100, on Sunday. That halted a six-game Hawks losing streak. Not to take away from that Atlanta win, but the Bucks were short-handed minus Kris Middleton. Before that victory, Atlanta had failed to cover in any of its losses during its six-game losing skid with five of those defeats occurring by at least nine points. The Hawks simply aren't that strong of a team to just blow out an opponent when the situation isn't right. The spot isn't right here for Atlanta. This marks the Hawks' eight game in 13 days and second in two days. Atlanta is 0-3 SU and ATS when playing without rest this season, losing those games by an average of 13.6 points. Orlando, on the other hand, will be playing for just the third time in eight days. The Magic will be battle tested. Their last five games have been against the Wizards, Nets, Jazz - who they beat by seven points - Spurs and Celtics.
11-13-21	Grizzlies -4 v. Pelicans		101-112	Loss	-105	9 h 6 m	Show
Both teams played Friday night and lost. The Grizzlies are the more talented and deeper team. I like them to bounce back and cover this spread. Memphis has proven it can beat much better teams than New Orleans on the road owning victories against the Clippers and Warriors. The Pelicans have dropped nine in a row going 3-6 ATS during this span. Their last six losses all have come by at least eight points. The Pelicans gave a strong effort last night in falling to the Nets, 120-112, but that's not always a given with this team. New Orleans might get Brandon Ingram back today, but clearly miss Zion Williamson.
11-12-21	Wolves v. Lakers -125		107-83	Loss	-125	10 h 58 m	Show
No LeBron James, no problem. The Lakers have some momentum for really the first time this season following consecutive overtime wins against the Hornets and Heat. Now LA is stepping down in class. The Timberwolves opened 3-1, but are showing signs of reverting back to their bottom-feeding ways. They have lost six in a row, including a 123-110 road loss to the Warriors in their last game two days ago. The Timberwolves' defense remains bad, ranking 23rd in scoring defense. This marks Minnesota's third road game in five days.
11-11-21	Raptors +3 v. 76ers		115-109	Win	100	6 h 56 m	Show
The Raptors are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row with the latest being 104-88 to the Celtics Wednesday night. Toronto will be playing without rest, but this spot still sets up for the Raptors. That's because the 76ers are in action for the sixth time in nine days and are severely short-handed. Out for the 76ers are Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle. Seth Curry is questionable with a foot injury that caused him to miss the 76ers' last game two days ago. Until losing to the Celtics last night, the Raptors had won and covered their first four road games.
11-10-21	Heat -4 v. Lakers	Top	117-120	Loss	-110	11 h 9 m	Show
The Lakers aren't playing very well. That's evident by this point spread. LA just nipped the Hornets in overtime at home two days ago. In their previous three games the Lakers lost to the Trail Blazers on the road by 15 points, lost to the Thunder at home and edged the Rockets by two points at home. The Thunder and Rockets are among the worst teams in the NBA. Minus injured LeBron James, the Lakers have been relying on 37-year-old Carmelo Anthony. That's not a good sign. The Heat are off to a fast start. However, they opened their road trip with a 113-96 loss to the Nuggets this past Monday. Miami is the better team right now and will be focused. I'm not expecting Anthony to bail out the Lakers like he did against the Hornets. The Heat give up the second-fewest points per game and are No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage.
11-10-21	Mavs v. Bulls UNDER 215.5		107-117	Loss	-110	8 h 42 m	Show
The Bulls just held the Nets to 95 points on Monday. The Mavericks are a top-10 defensive club. They've held four of their first 10 opponents under 100 points. The Under is 8-1-1 in Mavericks' games this season. Neither team plays at a fast tempo either. The Mavericks play at the fourth-slowest pace in the league. The Bulls can key on Luka Doncic. The Mavericks have yet to find a reliable, consistent second-scorer behind Doncic. The Bulls have been an Under team, too, especially at United Center with its tough rims. The Under has cashed 73 percent of the time during Chicago's last 26 home contests.
11-09-21	Blazers v. Clippers -3	Top	109-117	Win	100	11 h 8 m	Show
Paul George is playing well. Damian Lillard is not shooting 35.1 percent from the field. The Clippers are on a four-game win streak and home. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 SU and ATS on the road. The Clippers have covered the last five times they've hosted the Trail Blazers, including beating them, 116-86, on Oct. 25. LA is averaging 116.7 points in its last three games. The Trail Blazers are an average defensive team at best. So I see this short spread being safe to lay.
11-08-21	Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies		118-125	Loss	-109	6 h 17 m	Show
This is just the second road game of the season for Minnesota. The first one sure went well for the Timberwolves. They upset the Bucks, 113-108, as six-point 'dogs. I can see the Timberwolves upsetting Memphis, too. The Timberwolves fire up a lot of shots, especially from 3-point range. They just aren't very accurate. Memphis, however, gives up the second-most points per game in the league. The Grizzlies also rank 29th in 3-point defense. Minnesota is ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions. The Grizzlies, by comparison, rank 28th. The Timberwolves give up seven fewer points per game than the Grizzlies. The Timberwolves still could be without D'Angelo Russell. Still, I'll take the better defensive team given this many points.
11-05-21	Pacers v. Blazers -4.5	Top	106-110	Loss	-105	10 h 0 m	Show
Portland returns home following a disappointing 0-3 road trip capped off by an upset loss to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday. The Trail Blazers should play with a sense of desperation. They also should play well having won their last three home games in blowout fashion against the Suns, Grizzlies and Clippers. Indiana is off a satisfying, 111-98, home win against the Knicks from Wednesday. The Pacers have been at their worst on the road going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS. This is their first away matchup in a week. Indiana does not have a good history at Portland either having lost in 11 of their past 12 visits.
11-04-21	Thunder +13.5 v. Lakers		107-104	Win	100	11 h 15 m	Show
Maybe by Christmas the Lakers can lay these many points. But not right now. LA is 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS. The Lakers have won three of their five games by a combined nine points with one occurring in overtime. Their largest margin of victory is 12 points. The Thunder are a bad team. But they've covered three of their last four games, including upsetting the Lakers, 123-115, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog eight days ago. Oklahoma City came from 26 points down to pull out that victory. Sure the Lakers have revenge. But look at how inflated the point spread is compared to the first meeting. The Lakers have a lot of veterans. This is their third game in five days. Up next for LA is a road game against the Trail Blazers on Saturday. The Lakers are savvy enough to pace themselves. If the Thunder can't hang in at least the back door should be wide open if the game turns into garbage time. LA has won three in a row. Note, though, those wins were against the Cavaliers and twice against the Rockets, all at home. The Lakers are 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 times as chalk.
11-04-21	76ers v. Pistons +5.5		109-98	Loss	-109	9 h 35 m	Show
The Pistons have short revenge and are in a great ambush spot here hosting the 76ers. Philadelphia just concluded a 4-0 homestand by beating the Bulls, 103-98, Wednesday night. The 76ers achieved this without Tobias Harris, Danny Green and Ben Simmons. None of those players are going to play today either. Harris has COVID-19, Green has a hamstring injury and Simmons is out for personal reasons. The 76ers were forced to play four of their starters more than 34 minutes against the Bulls, including Joel Embiid. Since this is the second of back-to-back games and against a lowly foe, so the 76ers may reduce Embiid's minutes. Philly has a rematch against the Bulls in Chicago up next on Saturday. This marks the 76ers' fifth game in eight days. Detroit has the worst record in the Eastern Conference at 1-6. The Pistons are in the midst of a major rebuild, but they've played a tough schedule as six of their seven opponents were good. The Pistons covered as 11-point road 'dogs to the 76ers in a 110-102 loss a week ago. The 76ers shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 22 of 24 free throws. The Pistons shot 41 percent from the floor. Detroit also didn't have projected rookie-of-the-year Cade Cunningham in that matchup. This will be Cunningham's third game back from an ankle injury so the rust is coming off.
11-03-21	Hawks v. Nets OVER 220		108-117	Win	100	9 h 38 m	Show
The Nets have gone Under in each of their seven games. But they are coming off a season-high 117 points against the Pistons in their last game this past Sunday. Nobody even reached the 30-minute mark in that game either, including James Harden and Kevin Durant. So I'm looking for a rested Nets squad, with their potent offense, to produce a big scoring effort against an average Atlanta defense. It's a good sign for Brooklyn that Harden is going to the free throw line a lot again. He's shot 22 free throws in the last two games. The Hawks are off an 118-point performance against the Wizards, their highest total in four games. Trae Young hit 7 of 16 shots from the floor and got to the free throw line a season-high 11 times in that game after missing 22 of 33 shots during his previous two games. So he should be back on track. The two teams averaged a combined 246.7 points during their previous four meetings.
11-03-21	Blazers -3.5 v. Cavs		104-107	Loss	-108	17 h 58 m	Show
The Cavaliers do seem improved this season. But they aren't better than the Trail Blazers and this spot sets up well for Portland. The Trail Blazers are trying to salvage the final game of a three-game road trip. They lost, 125-113, to the improved Hornets this past Sunday and followed that up with a disgusting, 113-103, loss to the 76ers on Monday. Philadelphia was minus Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Cleveland last played at home on Oct. 23. The Cavaliers concluded a five-game road trip with a 113-110 victory against the Hornets Monday giving them a 3-2 mark on their away journey. ''To go 3-2 on this trip is a hell of an accomplishment,'' Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff was quoted as saying. So the Cavaliers come into this matchup fat and happy. They also might not have their focus being away from home for the past 11 days. Right after this game, the Cavaliers go back on the road for away games on Friday and Sunday. Such is the quirkiness of the NBA schedule. Cleveland will be playing with a short rotation as Kevin Love is in the NBA's health and safety protocol. He isn't expected to play today. The Trail Blazers dominated the Cavaliers last season winning by 19 points at home and 36 points on the road. They have covered five of the last six times versus the Cavs.
11-02-21	Bucks -4 v. Pistons		117-89	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
The defending champion Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode with consecutive home losses to the Timberwolves, Spurs and Jazz. Now the Bucks take to the road, which might be better for them, and drop way down in class. Detroit is 1-5. The Pistons are in full rebuild mode. They are coming off their first win, though, beating an equally terrible Orlando this past Saturday. A rusty Cade Cunningham made his NBA debut in that game. He shot 1-for-8 in 19 minutes. It's going to take a while for Cunningham to get up to speed coming off an ankle injury. Milwaukee has owned the Pistons, beating them 14 times in a row going 11-2-1 ATS. Detroit has failed to cover nine of the last 10 times it has been a 'dog.
11-01-21	Nuggets v. Grizzlies +1.5	Top	97-106	Win	100	5 h 54 m	Show
Now that the Grizzlies are home underdogs - which they shouldn't be - I'm going to get involved with them against Denver. The Nuggets are off wins against the Mavericks on Friday and the Timberwolves on Saturday. So this is their third game in four days. The Grizzlies were embarrassed at home by the Heat, 129-103, two days ago. Memphis will be up for this game. The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times after a double-digit defeat. Memphis is tested, too, having played five straight playoff opponents. The Nuggets have failed to cover in six of their last seven visits to Memphis.
10-30-21	Celtics +2.5 v. Wizards		112-115	Loss	-110	10 h 0 m	Show
Washington is off to a nice 4-1 start. But this game sets up well for Boston. The teams just met in Boston this past Wednesday. The Wizards upset the Celtics, 116-107, as a 4-point road 'dog. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics' two main scorers, were a combined 14-for-38 (36.8 percent) in the loss. Washington shot 51 percent from the floor in the win, while Boston made 44 percent of its field goals. The Celtics have been idle since then. They can use the prep and practice time playing for first-year head coach Ime Udoka. The Wizards went on to defeat the Hawks on Thursday night. So this marks their third game in four days. It's an earlier than usual start time, too. Washington might be without two of its rotation players with Rui Hachimura and Daniel Gafford each questionable.
10-29-21	Clippers v. Blazers -3		92-111	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
The Trail Blazers have short revenge here. They were buried, 116-86, on the road by the Clippers just four days ago. Damian Lillard and Portland got back on track rebounding to win impressively at home two days ago beating Memphis, 116-96. The Trail Blazers were sharp in their previous home game, too, defeating the Suns, 134-105. I see the Trail Blazers motivated and ready to destroy a disjointed Clippers team that has not found an identity without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers' lone victory was the one against Portland. Lillard had an off-shooting night in that game making just 4-of-15 field goal attempts. I don't see that happening again. Despite Paul George playing well to begin the season, the Clippers are 1-3. They just lost, 92-79, at home to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday. That's highly troubling.
10-29-21	Hornets +5 v. Heat		99-114	Loss	-103	8 h 46 m	Show
The Hornets remain below the radar. If not for an overtime loss to the Celtics, the Hornets would be 5-0 SU and ATS. They are leading the NBA in scoring at 121.2 points per game and are 2-0 on the road. Miles Bridges could be the most improved player in the league. He's averaging 26.2 points. Miami is the top defensive team in the league. But Charlotte has balanced scoring with four players averaging more than 14 points. It's an added bonus for Charlotte if Terry Rozier can play after missing the last four games with an ankle injury. He's questionable. The Heat rank No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. The Heat could be in letdown mode after an impressive road victory in an underdog role against the Nets two days ago.
10-28-21	Spurs +7 v. Mavs		99-104	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
The Spurs' record shows 1-3. But it's a good 1-3 as San Antonio played tough against the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers, a game it should have won but lost in overtime. Gregg Popovich was pleased with the effort and the performances, which is good enough for me. The Mavericks are in transition under new coach Jason Kidd, who I find to be an overrated coach yet he keeps getting hired. I much prefer the Mavericks as underdogs not favorites. Dallas is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times when playing a below .500 foe. The Spurs have been excellent money-makers when on the road going 15-6-1 ATS.
10-27-21	Pacers v. Raptors		100-118	Loss	-115	8 h 58 m	Show
Toronto isn't going to be very good this season. The Raptors are especially lower tier without Pascal Siakam, who is their main offensive weapon. Indiana is the better team. The Pacers hold a frontcourt edge with Domantis Sabonis and shot-blocker supreme Myles Turner. Rookie Chris Duarte is off to a hot start and Malcolm Brogdon is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Fred VanVleet is the Raptors' main cog with Siakam out. VanVleet is turnover-prone and shoots a very low percentage from the floor. I like Brogdon to handle him. The Pacers are stepping down in class after defeating the Heat this past Saturday and hanging tough in a loss to the defending champion Bucks two days ago. The Raptors are 0-3 at home. They've lost to the Wizards, Mavericks and Bulls by an average of 8.6 points a game. Toronto is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight home contests going back to last season. The Pacers have been excellent in this situation going 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games versus opponents with a losing home mark.
10-26-21	Warriors v. Thunder +9.5		106-98	Win	100	4 h 33 m	Show
Sometimes you have to back an ugly underdog when the spot is right in the NBA. That's the case in this matchup. Oklahoma City is 0-3. The Thunder were blown out by the Jazz and Rockets during their first two games this season. They improved in their last game, a 12-point home loss to the 76ers. They are getting good scoring from guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rookie Josh Giddey. Those two will be motivated to go against Stephen Curry. But the basis of this handicap is a fade on the Warriors, who are fat and happy with a 3-0 mark. This is their best start since 2015-16. The Warriors are on the road for a second straight game. Following this matchup they return to the Bay Area to begin an eight-game homestand. So you have to wonder about their focus as it's a definite letdown spot for the Warriors.
10-25-21	Blazers v. Clippers -3		86-116	Win	100	7 h 9 m	Show
The Clippers, minus Kawhi Leonard, have shown heart. They just haven't shown victories. LA is 0-2 for the first time in 11 years. A slow start from the Clippers was not unexpected since they don't have Leonard and the new starters didn't log much time together during preseason. Still, the Clippers nearly beat the Warriors on the road coming from 19 points down before losing, 115-113. The Clippers fell behind the Grizzlies by 16 points yet made a comeback before falling, 120-114. So LA has fight. The Clippers just need to knock down more shots because they've had open looks. I expect that to happen here against the Trail Blazers, who aren't good defensively and didn't look good in preseason. This is Portland's first road game of the season. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS during their last four road games against the Clippers. LA has the backcourt defenders in Reggie Jackson and Eric Bledsoe to keep Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in check.
10-24-21	Celtics -5.5 v. Rockets		107-97	Win	100	10 h 3 m	Show
Boston and its new coach, Ime Udoka, are in need of a victory at 0-2. The Rockets are off a rare victory. Houston isn't going to win many games this season, but it did beat another bottom-feeder, Oklahoma City, in blowout fashion two days ago. The Rockets finished last season 0-8 ATS following a victory. The Celtics are on high urgency alert having lost their opening in double-overtime to the Knicks and then running out of gas against the Raptors in a 115-83 home loss this past Friday. The Celtics were booed by their fans and Udoka ripped into his team. Expect a strong performance from Boston today against a very weak opponent who doesn't have much of a home-court advantage.
10-23-21	Pistons +8.5 v. Bulls		82-97	Loss	-105	10 h 6 m	Show
Short revenge for Detroit. The teams just met four days ago in Detroit and the Bulls won, 94-88. The Pistons shot 40 percent from the floor and 21 percent from 3-point range yet lost by only six points. Chicago is much improved. But this is a flat spot for the 2-0 Bulls after they just whipped the Pelicans, 128-112, at home last night. This marks the Bulls' third game in four days and second in two days. Detroit hasn't played since losing to the Bulls this past Wednesday. The Pistons won't have Cade Cunningham, but they still have promising young talent in Isaiah Stewart, Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey.
10-22-21	Suns v. Lakers	Top	115-105	Loss	-110	11 h 47 m	Show
Both the Suns and Lakers lost their opening games. I'm expecting the Lakers to get well in this second game of their season being home and in revenge mode against the Suns, who eliminated them in the playoffs last season. The Lakers are healthy this time around with Anthony Davis back in the lineup. LA upgraded its roster adding Russell Westbrook. He should be more settled in after not playing well in the Lakers', 121-114, loss to the Warriors. The Suns didn't look good in a 110-98 home loss to the Nuggets two days ago. I don't think the Suns will be as good as they were last season when everything fell into place for them.
10-22-21	Pelicans v. Bulls -6		112-128	Win	100	10 h 44 m	Show
The Bulls are below the radar right now, a much improved team not getting enough respect from the linesmaker. Chicago added DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball to go with emerging superstar Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls covered against the Pistons on the road in their opener despite shooting 43 percent from the floor and hitting 30 percent of their 3-pointers. New Orleans, on the other hand, isn't going to get good until it gets Zion Williamson back. He's recovering from surgery for a broken foot. The Pelicans have a new bench and lack experience. They aren't likely to have Josh Hart, Williamson's replacement, after he suffered a quad injury in the Pelicans' opening game, a 117-97 home loss to the 76ers.
10-21-21	Bucks v. Heat -115		95-137	Win	100	7 h 14 m	Show
The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks the past several seasons. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are reinforced with veteran additions Kyle Lowery, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris. Miami also catches Milwaukee short-handed. Ruled out for the Bucks are big men Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis along with point guard Jrue Holiday. So it's not too much to ask of the Heat to simply win their opening home game.
10-20-21	Kings +5.5 v. Blazers	Top	124-121	Win	100	22 h 7 m	Show
Portland could start slow under new coach Chauncey Billups. The Trail Blazers struggled through preseason going 0-4. Billups was quoted as saying Portland is further away than he thought they might be at this stage. The Kings have talent and depth. I'm expecting improvement from them. Sacramento went 4-0 in preseason. One of the Kings' preseason victories was 107-93 against the Trail Blazers although Damien Lillard and CJ McCollum didn't play. A key for the Kings is better defense. Ball hawking rookie Davion Mitchell can make an impact on defense. Portland enters this season having failed to cover eight of the past 11 times as a home favorite.
10-20-21	Bulls -5 v. Pistons		94-88	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
Both the Bulls and Pistons were bad last season. The Pistons still are going to be bad with the youngest lineup in the NBA. The Bulls, though, should be much improved. Chicago has surrounded emerging superstar Zach LaVine with veteran stars DeMar DeRozan and Nkila Vucevic while solving its point guard issue by acquiring Lonzo Ball. The Bulls looked good in preseason going 4-0. They should have no trouble covering this small number against the Pistons, who are unlikely to have rookie Cade Cunningham, the first overall pick in the draft. Cunningham hasn't been able to go through a full practice this week because of an ankle injury.
10-19-21	Nets +1 v. Bucks	Top	104-127	Loss	-101	18 h 8 m	Show
These are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference heading into the season. The Nets have the greater motivation having lost in seven games to the Bucks in the playoffs. The Nets had a 2-0 series lead, but then were struck by injuries. Aside from Kyrie Irving, the Nets are at full strength now. Brooklyn signed free agent guard Patty Mills to fill the void during Irving's absence. Mills is a solid role contributor. The Bucks are home, but that may not be the positive you would think. It's ring night where the Milwaukee players receive their championship rings. That's often a mental distraction and provides the opposition added incentive. Credit to the Bucks for what they accomplished last season. But I'm not convinced they are better than Brooklyn when the Nets have a healthy Kevin Durant and James Harden.
07-20-21	Suns v. Bucks -5	Top	98-105	Win	100	40 h 47 m	Show
Losing the first two games of this championship series, the Bucks have rallied to win three in a row. The Bucks beat the Suns by 20 points at home in Game 3. They defeated the Suns by six points at home in Game 4 despite being outshot 51 percent to 40 percent from the floor and they knocked off the Suns in Game 5 on the road by four points despite trailing by 16 points going into the second quarter. Clearly, the Bucks have all the momentum. But it's not just momentum. Giannis Antetokounmpo is proving he's the finest all-around player in the NBA. The Bucks are exploiting their height advantage and depth. And now the Bucks play at Fiserv Forum in what is arguably their biggest home game in franchise history. The Suns had their chance to go up 3-2 in the series leading 32-16 at home at the end of the first quarter in Game 5. The Bucks took the punch and came back to win. Milwaukee is making the clutch plays not Phoenix. Lack of big-game playoff experience may have hurt the Suns. Devin Booker is playing great again, though. Chris Paul played much better in Game 5. But it didn't matter. The Suns can't match the Bucks' size, bench strength and Antetokounmpo's all-world performances. Getting this deep into the series isn't a plus either for Phoenix. This is the longest the Suns have ever lasted. They have never faced elimination before. So there is a mental question. There also is a physical concern - fatigue. Deandre Ayton went a career-high 45 minutes in Game 5. The Suns take a massive hit when Ayton, their lone effective big man, isn't on the court. Booker logged close to 42 minutes. Jae Crowder played 40 minutes. Paul is 36 years old. The Bucks are the fresher team because of their deeper bench. Perhaps the Suns can hang in on sheer willpower for a while, but their gas tank is near empty. This is the Bucks' chance. I don't see them blowing it. Antetokounmpo won't let that happen.
07-20-21	Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5	Top	98-105	Win	100	17 h 13 m	Show
Thanks to an exceptional shooting performance by both teams in the last game, oddsmakers opened this Game 6 with the highest total of the championship series. I don't expect nearly that type of scoring in this potential closeout game. The Suns are determined to step up their defensive pressure. Giannis Antetokounmpo can't play any better than he has. Only worse. Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have run hot-and-cold during this series. Phoenix ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. The Bucks are doing a great job of cutting the head off the snake, which is Chris Paul. The Bucks have forced Paul into committing an average of 3.6 turnovers per game. The combination of full-court pressure, excellent defense by Holiday and Paul's left wrist not being 100 percent have contributed to the Bucks' defensive effectiveness along with their size and athletic length. The Bucks ranked fifth during the regular season in defensive field goal percentage. Both teams have endured a long and grueling season to reach this deep point of the season. The pace has slowed down during each of the last three games. The tempo should be slow again with this being such a pivotal game and the Suns having a short bench.
07-17-21	Bucks +4 v. Suns	Top	123-119	Win	100	12 h 21 m	Show
Sure, home-court is huge for the Suns. The Zig-Zag is on their side, too. It's their turn to win. However, the Suns face numerous issues that put me on the underdog Bucks for this Game 5. I've summarized them into five points: 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo is showing no ill effects from his injury. He's actually playing the best basketball of his career, which is saying a lot since he's the two-time league MVP. Antetokounmpo gives the Bucks the best player on the court. Superstars win NBA championships. 2. The Bucks are bigger and more athletic. Milwaukee has exploited that to shoot 31 more field goals and 19 more free throws than the Suns during the first four games. The Bucks are dominating the offensive glass while averaging nearly eight more shots per game than Phoenix. The Suns took a major hit when backup big man Dario Saric suffered a torn ACL and was lost for the series. The Suns are at a severe disadvantage when Deandre Ayton isn't on the court - and he can't play every minute. 3. Turnovers. The Bucks are winning the possession battle by forcing more turnovers. Chris Paul, bothered by the great defense of Jrue Holiday and perhaps still hindered by a left wrist injury, has committed 15 turnovers during the last three games. Paul hasn't had a three-game turnover stretch that bad in seven years. 4. Momentum. The Bucks have it. Their confidence is way up. 5. Shooting percentage. The Bucks shot 40 percent from the field in Game 4. The Suns made 51 percent of their field goals. Yet the Bucks still won by six points. The shots are there for the Bucks. Holiday is a much better scorer than he's shown in this series. So is Kris Middleton. I expect Milwaukee's accuracy to go up.
07-14-21	Suns +4.5 v. Bucks	Top	103-109	Loss	-108	38 h 2 m	Show
The first three games of this NBA championship series have all been decided by double-digits. We're overdue for a close game. That should come here as each team now has a full feel of their opponent. This is a very even series now that Giannis Antetokounmpo has shown he's back at his elite level. Milwaukee punched back after falling behind 2-0 in the series with a resounding, 120-100, Game 3 home win on Sunday. Now it's the Suns' turn to respond, which I believe they will. The last time the Suns lost two in a row was three series ago when they dropped Games 2 and 3 against the Lakers. Since then the Suns have gone 10-3 versus the Nuggets, Clippers and Bucks. That's remarkable resiliency to go with three stars on the court, Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. That's two more stars than the Bucks have. Milwaukee's strength in this series is its size and depth. The Suns are short-handed behind Ayton with backup Dario Saric out for the season after tearing his ACL in Game 1. Ayton must play major minutes. He didn't during Game 3 because of foul trouble. He should be fresh with three days in between Game 3 and Game 4 instead of the normal two days. Saddled with five fouls in a game for the first time in the postseason, Ayton only played 24 minutes on Sunday. The Bucks, especially Antetokounmpo, took full advantage dominating the paint and attacking the rim at will. Antetokounmpo alone shot 17 free throws in Game 3, which was more than the entire Suns team got to shoot from the foul line. Not helping matters for Phoenix was Booker had his worst game of the series going just 3-for-14 from the floor. He hadn't had that low of a scoring game during the entire calendar year of 2021. The Suns, who had the second-highest shooting percentage during the regular season, missed 22 of 31 shots from 3-point range. The Bucks' three best players - Antetokounmpo, Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday - were a combined 28-of-51 from the field and made 16 of 20 free throws in Sunday's victory. Middleon and Holiday aren't likely to play as poorly as they did during the first two games of the series. However, they aren't likely to produce ''A'' level games either against the Suns' tough defense. The Suns scored 118 points in each of the first two games of this series when they were home. Maybe they don't reach that number again being on the road. But they sure should score more than 100 points. I doubt Booker is out of rhythm a second straight game and I doubt Ayton encounters foul trouble a second consecutive time having avoided it throughout the playoffs while dominating the Clippers and playing Denver superstar Nikola Jokic to a standstill. Holiday is a solid two-way player. Perhaps even underrated. But he's not vintage Chris Paul, which is what Paul has been during the postseason. I see solid value on the Suns in this price range.
07-11-21	Suns v. Bucks -4	Top	100-120	Win	100	23 h 35 m	Show
This is the Bucks' season and I believe Milwaukee will respond well to the challenge being back at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks came back against the Nets and Hawks in their previous series. The Suns are better than those teams. Things are going well for the Suns, but they are not a super dominant power. During two of their series, they lost Game 3 at the Lakers and lost Game 3 at the Clippers. The best news for the Bucks is the return to health of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee has outscored Phoenix by four points during the time he's been on the court. The Bucks' problems are their other players stepping up. Jrue Holiday and Kris Middleton are proven, solid players. They are overdue for much better performances. I don't expect the Suns to sink 50 percent of their 40 3-point shots like they did in Game 2 and I do expect the Bucks to shoot much better from 3-point range than the 9-for-31 performance of Game 2.
07-08-21	Bucks +5.5 v. Suns	Top	108-118	Loss	-104	19 h 55 m	Show
The Suns did what they did during their three previous playoff series, they came out fired up and executed well in winning and covering the spread in Tuesday's Game 1. Phoenix, though, failed to cover the number in Game 2 during their series against the Lakers and Clippers. The Suns' playoff and big-game inexperience showed in those non-covers. Giannis Antetokounmpo looked fine on Tuesday. The Bucks are right there with the Suns with a healthy Antetokounmpo. There are a number of signs pointing to the Bucks not only covering this Game 2, but perhaps coming away with the straight-up victory. Antetokounmpo scored 20 points, pulled down 17 rebounds and defended the rim. He was somewhat rusty, though. He needs his rhythm and he'll find it here. He's capable of playing even better. Free throws. What the hell? The Suns shot 26 free throws in Game 1. Their only miss came with 24 seconds left. They were 25-of-26. Milwaukee only got to shoot 16 free throws. Kris Middleton fired 26 shots - and didn't draw one foul. Strange. The Bucks are well-coached defensively. It's extremely rare for an opponent to get that many free throws against Milwaukee. The Bucks will be more aggressive. The lopsided foul situation should be rectified. It was an outlier. The Bucks had to play on much shorter rest than Phoenix in Game 1. The Bucks also got caught off-guard defending the Suns' pick-and-roll. Adjustments will be made. ''That will be a big part of looking between Game 1 and Game 2,'' Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer was quoted as saying. Milwaukee has covered the past four times following a non-cover. I expect Jrue Holiday to play better, too. He didn't shoot well in Game 1 and may have been too passive with Antetokounmpo back in the lineup after playing great in the last two games without him. Holiday isn't Chris Paul, but he's a solid two-way player.
07-06-21	Bucks v. Suns -6	Top	105-118	Win	100	19 h 59 m	Show
This series has a Chris Paul crowning feel to it. The Bucks produced back-to-back great efforts without Giannis Antetokounmpo to eliminate the Hawks with that series finale occurring this past Saturday night in Atlanta. The Suns have had six days to rest and prepare. They are healthy, unlike the Bucks who probably are not going to have Antetokounmpo. Suns coach Monty Williams said his team has practiced well during the wait. Phoenix is 3-0 ATS during the first game of its playoff series. The Bucks are 0-3 ATS in the opening game of each of their playoff series. Milwaukee is 3-9 ATS the past 12 times it has been a 'dog. The Bucks have failed to cover in six of their last seven games against Phoenix. I trust the Suns at home to produce the better Game 1 result, enough so to cover this spread. Minus Antetokonumpo, the Suns have the three best players in Paul, Devin Booker and emerging star Deandre Ayton. The Bucks received huge performances from Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez during its last two games against the Hawks. They all stepped up big-time in the absence of Antetokounmpo. The Suns, however, are a much different opponent than the Hawks, who had to make do with a hobbled Trae Young. The Hawks lacked a defensive stopper to deal with Middleton. The Suns have one in veteran Jae Crowder. Paul and his excellent backup point guard, Cameron Payne, rate an edge on Holiday. Keep in mind, Antetokounmpo isn't the only key Buck out with an injury. Milwaukee has been without underrated guard Donte DiVincenzo. He's out for the season with a foot injury and his defense is missed. Ayton rates a huge edge on Lopez, an inconsistent journeyman who can't be trusted to play as well as he has. I can't see the Bucks coming up with a third straight ''A'' game especially given the short turnaround.
07-03-21	Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 216.5	Top	118-107	Loss	-109	17 h 18 m	Show
The Bucks had something to prove playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 5 and they proved it with a convincing, 123-112, home win against Atlanta. Now it's the Hawks who must play with desperation down 3-2 in this Eastern Conference Final. I highly doubt Antetokounmpo plays. Trae Young is iffy, but won't be 100 percent if he does see the court because of a bruised foot. Young is a streak shooter. He figures to be rusty if he does manage to play. This is deep playoff basketball being Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The teams will compensate for their missing stars through super-intense defense. That means for the Hawks clamping down on the Brook Lopez-Jrue Holiday show that was so effective in Game 5. Bobby Portis isn't going wild again either. The Hawks have the coaching and defense to do this especially at home. Atlanta has yielded just 101.2 points in its last four home games. Milwaukee is averaging 100.8 points in regulation during its last five away contests. The last five in this series played in Atlanta have all gone Under. The Bucks are down two of their ball handlers with Antetokounmpo and Donte DiVincenzo out. This puts a lot of pressure and extra burden on Holiday, who also is a key defender. Holiday isn't going to sacrifice his defense. The Bucks shot 51 percent from the floor at home in Game 5. They shot 39.3 percent from the floor and scored 88 points during Game 4 in Atlanta.
07-01-21	Hawks v. Bucks -125	Top	112-123	Win	100	16 h 43 m	Show
The NBA playoffs have a Quentin Tarantino feel to it with the way all the stars keep getting knocked out. Reservoir Dogs was less gruesome to watch than seeing Trae Young and now Giannis Antetokounmpo go down with leg injuries. This brings us to today's Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. No Antetokounmpo for the Bucks. I doubt Young plays either. If he does, his mobility will be severely restricted due to an ankle/bone injury suffered in Game 3. Atlanta stepped up without Young to upset the Bucks at home, 110-88, two days ago. Now it's the Bucks' turn to step up at home down their superstar. Can the Bucks do it? The oddsmaker believes so, opening Milwaukee a slight home favorite. I believe so, too. Perhaps the Bucks subconsciously let up in Game 4 knowing Young was out. Milwaukee didn't shoot well especially from 3-point range, missing 31 of 39 shots from beyond the arc. The Bucks were trailing by 10 when Antetokounmpo hyperextended his knee in the third quarter. Stunned seeing Antetokounmpo out and in pain, the Bucks were blown out the rest of the way. No one stepped up for Milwaukee. I'm banking that the Bucks will be much stronger physically and mentally in protecting their home-court advantage now that the reality of Antetokounmpo being out has sunk in. The Bucks are the deeper team and they have solid pros in Kris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker. Middleton picked up the slack scoring 36 points in last year's Game 4 first-round playoff series against the Heat when Antetokounmpo had to leave two minutes into the second quarter. Milwaukee won that game. So the Bucks are capable. The Bucks led the NBA in scoring. They were fifth in 3-point shooting percentage. Antetokounmpo, for all his greatness, is not an accomplished 3-point shooter. Keep in mind, too, that the Hawks are banged-up - and it's not just Young. Clint Capela is questionable with eye inflammation, Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a sore knee and talented De'Andre Hunter is out.
06-30-21	Suns -101 v. Clippers	Top	130-103	Win	100	17 h 48 m	Show
Whether it was big-game inexperience, or Monty Williams getting his ass out-coached by Tyronn Lue, the Suns failed to seize the moment. They had a golden opportunity to close out the Western Conference finals by eliminating the banged-up Clippers at home this past Monday. Instead, they made uncharacteristic mistakes and were caught off-guard by the Clippers switching to a small ball lineup. Phoenix is 19-7 ATS following a loss. I expect the Suns to bounce back and beat the crippled Clippers, who are down Kawhi Leonard and possibly starting center Ivica Zubac again. Leonard is one of the top-five all-around players in the league. Zubac, who missed Game 5 with a knee injury, has an LA-best plus 25 ratio during the first four games of the series. He's probably LA's most underrated player. The Suns have a full deck now. They had a top-six defense during the regular season and rank No. 2 defensively in the playoffs. Thanks to the steady hand of Chris Paul, the Suns rarely make mistakes. Devin Booker is as dangerous a scorer as Paul George and Deandre Ayton has stepped up to earn stardom during this series. I don't see the Clippers catching the Suns off-guard, like on Monday, with a small-ball lineup. Until that game, the Suns had proven worthy against small-ball lineups. Phoenix has no experience closing out a Western Conference final. But the Suns are the better team. The pressure on them is less severe being on the road. This is their time.
06-29-21	Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219	Top	88-110	Win	100	17 h 20 m	Show
Trae Young is questionable with a bruised foot/ankle sprain so now we have the lowest total of this series for this Game 4. It's still worth going Under. Young is averaging 29.8 points and 9.5 assists in 15 postseason games. The scoring average spikes to 32.7 points against the Bucks. Even if Young can play, which I'm assuming he'll give it a try, he's not going to be 100 percent. His mobility is going to be impacted, probably severely. He scored only three points during the final 13 minutes of Sunday's Game 3. The Hawks can't make up for Young's reduced firepower because of other player's injuries. De'Andre Hunter is out and sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanovic is bothered by a sore knee. The Bucks are underrated defensively. Only four teams were better during the season in defensive shooting percentage. Milwaukee is giving up just 101.4 points in its last five games, three against the Hawks and two versus the Nets. Atlanta's defense showed huge improvement once Nate McMillan took over as coach. The Hawks ranked third in defensive 3-point percentage. Atlanta has given up 105.6 points in its six playoff home games. The Hawks' mindset is going to be on defense with Young out, or limited. I'm expecting a slow tempo with the Hawks emphasizing patience and trying to work the ball inside to John Collins and Clint Capela, who are more secondary-type of scorers. Kris Middleton broke out of a slump to connect on 15 of 26 from the floor in the Bucks' 113-102 Game 3 Sunday victory. Middleton, though, had missed 24 of 36 field goals during the first two games. Aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks don't have another scorer that can fully be trusted. There are some key current Under trends. The Hawks have gone Under six of the last seven times they've been a 'dog, while the Bucks are 5-1-1 to the Under when favored. The low side also has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams.
06-28-21	Clippers v. Suns OVER 214	Top	116-102	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
From a high of 222 1/2 in Game 2 of this Clippers-Suns Western Conference Finals, we now have the total reduced eight points in this Game 5. An 84-80 Game 4 will do that. I certainly don't expect the Clippers and Suns to combine to shoot just 34.3 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point range like they did in Game 4. Instead let's go back to Game 3. The Clippers won that game, 106-92. Yes, that's just a combined 198 points and another easy Under winner. The Under has cashed the past three games. But this total - the lowest of the series - the ebbs and flows and due factor all help put me on Over for this Game 5. Now, getting back to that 106-92 Game 3 Clippers victory. LA shot 45 percent from the floor and 35 percent from 3-point range. That's not outstanding shooting yet 106 points were produced. The Clippers averaged a 48.2 shooting percentage during the regular season and 41.1 3-point shooting. Kawhi Leonard's absence cuts both ways. Yes, he's a great offensive force. But he's also one of the best defenders in the league. I don't expect to see Rajon Rondo on the court anymore. That's a huge plus for the Over - and for the Clippers. Rondo didn't play in Game 4 after compiling a horrific minus 30 court time during the first three games of the series. The Clippers' points per possession goes way down when Rondo plays. Rondo should do the Clippers and NBA a favor and retire. Yes, the Suns were held to only 92 points in Game 3. But they had 90 shots. Unfortunately for them, they hit just 39 percent from the floor and only got to shoot 13 free throws. Based on that volume of shots and expected increase in free throws, the Suns should score around 114 points, which is slightly lower than their season average of 115.3 points per game. Phoenix ranked second in field goal percentage and free throw percentage during the season. The Suns smell a close-out game at home. They'll be going for the kill. Chris Paul is just the man to orchestrate that. It's his third game back from quarantine so the rust is off. Deandre Ayton has become a star in this series. The Clippers can't stop him inside. Ayton's outstanding play should open things up for Devin Booker, who is way overdue for a big game. Booker, who shot 48.4 percent from the floor during the season, has shot just 18-of-59 from the field for 30.5 percent during the last three games. He's had three games to adjust now to a plastic face guard that protects a broken nose he suffered in Game 2. So I'm expecting the Suns to have a much-higher scoring game. The Clippers have no choice, but to keep up with their season on the brink. That means this one could get ugly at the end with a lot of fouling.
06-26-21	Suns v. Clippers UNDER 218.5	Top	84-80	Win	101	18 h 13 m	Show
The question isn't if the Suns and Clippers are good enough defensively to get Under this total. They are. The Clippers ranked fourth in the NBA defensively, while the Suns were seventh. The important question is can defense prevail here in this Game 4? I saw enough in the Clippers' 106-92 Game 3 win two days ago to emphatically say Yes. Circumstances, injuries, coaching adjustments and playoff intensity are the right brew for this matchup to go Under again. Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Cameron Payne are the three most important players in regards to the total. There are strong factors working against all three of them. The 36-year-old Paul was in home isolation doing no activities for eight days due to COVID-19 protocols. He got back into action in Game 3 and predictably was rusty making just 5-of-19 shots from the floor. The Clippers have the athletic and big wing players to effectively cover Paul and they did an excellent job. Monty Williams foolishly played Paul 39 minutes in an obvious lost-cause game. It remains to be seen if Paul will play better, but at his advanced age and given his fatigue situation he's certainly not going to set a fast pace. The Suns would be more up-tempo if backup point guard Payne were healthy. He's not, though. He's questionable with an ankle sprain. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent. Booker is playing with a bothersome plastic face guard after suffering a broken nose in Game 2. Booker lit up the Clippers in Game 1, but in the last two games he's shot just 10-for-37 from the field for 27 percent. The Suns aren't playing the defensively-challenged Nuggets here. Even minus Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers are far superior defensively to the Nuggets. They've held Phoenix to an average of 98 points the past two games. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times the teams have met in LA. Phoenix is going to have to try to win this game with a hard-nosed defensive effort, sacrificing its dwindling offense. The Suns have given up fewer than 107 points in eight of their past 10 games. The Clippers only have one reliable scorer, Paul George, with Leonard out.
06-26-21	Suns v. Clippers +1	Top	84-80	Loss	-101	18 h 12 m	Show
Yes, Kawhi Leonard remains out. But given the Suns' fragile physical situation, it's surprising to find the Clippers again opening as a home underdog to the Suns. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 11 times hosting the Suns, including beating them, 106-92, two days ago. If it weren't for Deandre Ayton scoring a basket in the final second of Game 2, the Clippers would be leading the series, 2-1, and LA likely would be favored by several points. The Clippers have much better depth than the Suns. They have the big men and wing players to bother a weakened Chris Paul and sharpshooter Devin Booker, who suffered a broken nose in Game 2 and has been hindered playing with a plastic faceguard. He's made just 27 percent of his field goals during the last two games. Paul had a terrible Game 3 after being in home isolation for eight days due to COVID-19 protocols. Paul is 36 and logged 39 minutes this past Tuesday. The best defense against Paul, who had been magnificent in the playoffs prior to going into isolation, is to throw athletic, wing men at him. The Clippers accomplished that with Paul George, Terance Mann and Nicolas Batum. Paul never could find his shooting range and his passing lanes were disrupted. Cameron Payne, Paul's effective point guard backup, couldn't help because of an ankle injury. He could go only four minuts. This puts the Suns in a real bind especially given Booker's shooting woes. Unsung players are needed to step up in the playoffs to help their superstars. The Clippers are getting that from Reggie Jackson, who is averaging 23 points in the five games Leonard has missed in the postseason. The Clippers have shown their mental toughness. They've fallen behind 0-2 in their series against the Mavericks and Jazz. LA won Game 3 and Game 4 in each of those series. Look for that pattern to continue here.
06-25-21	Hawks +8 v. Bucks	Top	91-125	Loss	-104	17 h 18 m	Show
Bookmakers who have futures jeopardy on the Hawks - and there are their share of them - need to be concerned. Atlanta isn't following the standard protocol of paying playoff dues before establishing itself as a title contender. The Hawks are talented enough, have the right coach in Nate McMillan and a hot Trae Young, who is using this postseason to launch himself into superstardom, to jump the gun. The Hawks have enough to beat a vulnerable Bucks team that is getting way too much respect. I thought taking eight points with the Hawks in Game 1 was overly generous. I gladly accepted that and I'll gladly accept 7 1/2 points because this is an even series. So what if the Bucks are home? Atlanta is 6-2 in road playoff games. The Hawks have covered in 13 of their last 16 visits to Milwaukee. Being at home just means more pressure on the Bucks, who have yet to prove anything during the playoffs under Mike Budenholzer. So what if the Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo when the Hawks have their own superstar in Young. I actually believe the Hawks are the more talented team given their big men of John Collins and Clint Capela. The Hawks upset the Bucks, 116-113, in Game 1 in part because they grabbed four offensive rebounds during the final two minutes. Collins and Capela combined to have a plus 20 ratio when they were on the floor. The Bucks had a negative 14 ratio when their big man, Brook Lopez, was on the court. The Bucks have a number of defensive stoppers such as Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker. Yet Budenholzer chose to put washed-up veteran Jeff Teague on Young during the second quarter. Teague only played around six minutes, but Young went crazy during this span just when it looked like the Bucks might have established early momentum. I don't point this out to nitpick Budenholzer, but to illustrate that his poor playoff history does not warrant any form of trust. Milwaukee blew a seven-point lead with a little more than four minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Bucks have no business being favored this high again in the series. But I'm not here to argue. I'm just thankful to receive another gift.
06-24-21	Suns v. Clippers +1.5		92-106	Win	100	17 h 6 m	Show
If not for a last-second dunk by Deandre Ayton in Game 2 and the Suns shooting 55 percent from the floor in Game 1, the Clippers could be heading home up 2-0 in this Western Conference Finals instead of down 0-2. If that were the case, this line would be much different. The landscape is going to change in this Game 3 and it's not just because the scene shifts to LA. The Suns are expected to get back Chris Paul while Kawhi Leonard remains out for LA. It doesn't matter. I still see the Clippers winning this Game 3. I like the Clippers' bench better. Ty Lue has convinced me he knows how to make proper adjustments. Home-court can't be diminished. The Suns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Clippers. But I also like that the Clippers came back from 0-2 in each of their previous series to take out the Mavericks and Jazz. That's huge psychologically. This is a veteran team that won't panic. Lue is a coaching upgrade on Doc Rivers. Paul has had an MVP-caliber season. He can't play much better, though, than how his replacement, Cameron Payne, played this past Tuesday scoring 29 points and dishing off nine assists. Paul's return is factored into the line. So I'm fine with that. Devin Booker scored 40 points in Game 1 making 15 of 29 shots from the floor. However, the Clippers clamped down on Booker in Game 2 holding him to 5-of-16 field goal shooting. It's proven to be a mistake to write off the Clippers this season. I'm not going to make that mistake here.
06-23-21	Hawks +8 v. Bucks	Top	116-113	Win	100	14 h 28 m	Show
If the Hawks didn't prove it against the Knicks, they sure proved it against the 76ers. They are young, well-coached, dangerous and can win on the road as their 5-2 away playoff record shows. Trae Young and Atlanta are playing on house money. They are battle-tested now and deserving of more respect than this inflated line. The pressure is on the Bucks, especially at home. Great during the regular season, disappointing in the playoffs. That's what the Bucks have been the previous two seasons under Mike Budenholzer. I don't see the Hawks stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo even though Nate McMillan greatly improved Atlanta's defense. But the Hawks have enough scorers to keep this close if not pull the major upset. Young can win a series by himself with his scoring and passing. The Hawks have other outside shooters and a pair of effective big men, John Collins and Clint Capela. Their talent level is right there with the Bucks. Atlanta has covered in 12 of its last 15 visits to Milwaukee. The point spread is too lopsided. It might not be this high again the rest of the series.
06-22-21	Clippers +5.5 v. Suns	Top	103-104	Win	100	19 h 20 m	Show
The Suns played well, especially Devin Booker, and defeated the Clippers, 120-114, in Game 1. The Clippers didn't play as well and were in a quick turnaround spot after having just knocked off the Jazz while the Suns were extremely well-rested. Phoenix made 55 percent of their shots from the floor. The Clippers connected on 45 percent. Yet the Suns still won by just six points. Now that the Clippers have 52 hours between games in Phoenix, I'm expecting a better performance, proper adjustments and a closer game. No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers, but LA closed out the Jazz without him. No Chris Paul for the Suns, which is just as big of a loss if not more because Paul runs the team and was playing at peak efficiency. The Clippers have made the right adjustments all season. I trust they'll do it again here so I'm taking these points in the belief this is going to be an extremely close game.
06-20-21	Hawks +7 v. 76ers		103-96	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Discount the Hawks at your own peril. Since the start of March, the Hawks are 34-14. They have won four of six road playoff games, including twice in Philadelphia. The Hawks beat the 76ers when down by 18 points and defeated them again when trailing by 26 points. Just what is so good about the 76ers that they should be this high of a favorite? Doc Rivers isn't a great bench coach. Joel Embiid is dealing with a tear in his right knee and is highly frustrated. Ben Simmons has to be lifted during crucial moments because he can't be trusted. The 76ers haven't proven anything. The 76ers have yet to hold Trae Young in check. The Hawks lost by five points in Game 6 because they only made 13 of 24 free throws, shot 41 percent from the floor and hit just 10 3-pointers out of 31 shots. The looks were there. Atlanta just had a cold-shooting game. All the pressure is on the 76ers. Moreso because they are home. Atlanta is on house money. The 76ers have choked before against this team at home. They are not worthy of being this high of a favorite.
06-20-21	Clippers +4 v. Suns		114-120	Loss	-109	9 h 53 m	Show
No Kawhi Leonard. No Chris Paul. The Clippers have shown they can still win without Leonard going 2-0 against the Jazz minus their superstar. But can the Suns win without Paul? Paul was instrumental in Phoenix sweeping Denver averaging 25.5 points and 10.3 assists while playing nearly 36 minutes a game. Now he's out due to COVID protocols. Terance Mann stepped-up big time in relief of Leonard scoring 39 points against the Jazz two days ago. Mann has to be accounted for now after that monster performance. The Suns have yet to prove they can adequately fill Paul's spot and beat an elite opponent in a playoff game. The Suns sweep of Denver could actually hurt them here. The Clippers are riding the momentum of reaching the conference finals for the first time in their history after eliminating the Jazz this past Friday. The Suns, on the other hand, could be flat and rusty having last played a week ago. Phoenix has failed to cover 16 of the last 22 times it has played on three or more day's rest.
06-19-21	Bucks v. Nets -118	Top	115-111	Loss	-118	13 h 25 m	Show
OK, why the Nets for Game 7? I could cite the zig-zag theory where it's the Nets' turn to win. Or I could cite these two huge angles: The Bucks are 1-9 ATS the last 10 times as underdogs, while the Nets are 11-1 ATS the past 12 times as home favorites. Brooklyn also is 4-0 ATS the past four times hosting the Bucks. I also like the Nets being home where the Barclays Center crowd has provided enough energy to make a difference. But in the end it comes down to trust. Mike Budenholzer is an outstanding coach during the regular season. I don't trust him, though, in the playoffs where he seems to get outcoached. Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the top-five players in the game. However, I trust Kevin Durant more to deliver a big performance. Antetokounmpo is great, but he's not in the clutch Michael Jordan/LeBron class. My feeling is Durant comes up big, James Harden comes through with a gutty performance and the Nets take care of business at home.
06-18-21	76ers -3 v. Hawks		104-99	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
What could the 76ers do for an encore after blowing an 18-point lead to the Hawks in Game 4? Blow a 26-point lead in Game 5. This was one of the biggest choke jobs in NBA playoff history. So, why has the oddsmaker made Philadelphia a road favorite for Game 6? Because they know the 76ers are the better team. I agree with that assessement. It might even be better for the 76ers to be getting out of Philadelphia. There's no chance of the 76ers coasting if they build up another early lead on Atlanta. Trae Young is phenomenal. He's a rising superstar. But he goes hot-and-cold. Not so with Joel Embiid. The 76ers can count on Embiid for a huge game even though he's not 100 percent. I trust the rest of the key 76ers - mainly underrated Tobias Harris and Seth Curry - to give Embiid needed scoring assistance. When the Hawks lose during the postseason they lose big. Their three defeats have been by nine points to the Knicks and by 16 twice to the 76ers.
06-18-21	76ers v. Hawks UNDER 222	Top	104-99	Win	100	15 h 56 m	Show
During the past two games in this series, the 76ers have averaged 103 points and the Hawks have averaged 106. Both games went Under. The oddsmaker has come down a little on the total for this Game 6, but not enough. The 76ers ranked No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They are going to be cautious and defensive-minded here after blowing monster leads during the past two games. Atlanta became a respectable defensive club when Nate McMillan took over. This has carried into the playoffs where the Under has cashed in seven of the Hawks' 10 games. The pace has slowed in the last two games to where possessions are less than 99. I don't expect any changes in style of play. If there is, it would be even slower tempo and more defensive intensity as the 76ers try to stave off elimination.
06-16-21	Clippers v. Jazz -2.5	Top	119-111	Loss	-112	13 h 53 m	Show
The Jazz have played 81 games this season. Not once have they lost three in a row. A combination of talent, home-court and coaching will carry the Jazz through this Game 5 and ensure they won't drop three consecutive games for the first time this season. Utah's defense and bench is far stronger than it showed during the Clippers' 118-104 Game 4 victory in LA two days earlier. The Jazz beat the Clippers in the first two games of the series, both in Utah, and outscored the Clippers by 10 points in the second half of Monday's loss. Utah shot 51.4 percent from the floor in the second half, while holding the Clippers to 42.9 percent shooting from the field during the second half. That bode wells for the Jazz turning things around. So does returning home. Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games in Salt Lake City. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS as a road 'dog. It's an added plus for Utah if Mike Conley can finally play. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are superstars. But Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are near that level. Gobert is the best defensive big man in basketball. I also like Utah's reserves more than the Clippers. The Clippers are in trouble if both Leonard and George aren't playing their "A" games. I also give the Jazz a solid coaching advantage with Quin Snyder against Ty Lue. (Update: I made this selection before news of Kawhi Leonard being out surfaced. The line has moved considerably following this news. I still like the Jazz to cover against the Clippers, but I would lower my wager at minus 6 1/2 or more.)
06-15-21	Bucks v. Nets +4.5	Top	108-114	Win	100	16 h 41 m	Show
This Bucks-Nets series has had a certain ebb and flow to it. Brooklyn opened the series as the better team. That's changed now since James Harden and Kyrie Irving were injured. Milwaukee is the superior team now. I acknowledge that. But I believe the combination of Kevin Durant, home court and tremendous emotional energy - part of the ebb and flow after the Bucks won the last two games - will keep the Nets in this one. The Nets are experienced playing without all three of their superstars on the court at the same time. They have role players such as Joe Harris and Blake Griffin who can step up when needed. The Nets' supporting cast, bolstered by adrenalin and home-court, has something to prove after being overlooked all season. This is their chance. Brooklyn has covered in 13 of its last 16 home games. The Bucks have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored. I don't trust Milwaukee to cover a margin in this road setting especially when the Bucks could be feeling overconfident facing the Nets minus Harden and Irving.
06-13-21	Suns -3 v. Nuggets	Top	125-118	Win	100	29 h 14 m	Show
The oddsmaker has adjusted 4 1/2 points from Game 3 when the Suns were road underdogs. It still isn't enough. The Suns are vastly superior to the Jamal Murray-less Nuggets. Phoenix has won by 17, 25 and 14 points at Denver during Friday's Game 3. The Suns still won by double-digits on Friday despite the Nuggets playing the hardest they have all series and their superstar, Nikola Jokic, scoring 32 points, pulling down 20 rebounds and dishing off 10 assists. It didn't matter. The Nuggets don't have the starters to match the Suns and their bench isn't nearly good enough to compensate. The loss of Murray is huge. This is what I wrote for Game 3 when I also had the Suns: "No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. I have no doubt that the Nuggets will go all out, mustering all of their intensity. But it won't be enough. This series is a mismatch. Phoenix is playing too well and is two levels - not just one level - above the Nuggets right now." None of that has changed. Devin Booker remains a huge force and Chris Paul is playing great with a 34-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio in the series. The only change could be Denver's morale and confidence. The Nuggets know no team has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. Their best shot two days ago wasn't nearly enough. That has to be depressing.
06-12-21	Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 223.5	Top	106-132	Loss	-110	14 h 20 m	Show
Donovan Mitchell is darn good. But he's not Superman like he's shown during the first two games of this series. Thanks to Mitchell averaging 41 points in the series, the Jazz are averaging 114.5 points in the series. I don't see Mitchell and the Jazz keeping up those scoring averages as the series shifts to LA. The Clippers ranked fourth during the season in scoring defense and sixth in defensive 3-point percentage. I don't find Tyronn Lue the sharpest card in the coaching deck, but finally during the second half of Game 2 he found the right type of zone defense to limit Mitchell and the Jazz. Utah was held to 51 points during the final two quarters of Game 2. I wonder, too, if Mitchell hurt his ankle after a collision with Paul George late in Game 2. Keep in mind, the Jazz haven't had point guard Mike Conley yet for the series. He's questionable for this Game 3. I'm certainly expecting the Clippers to show full playoff intensity defense against Utah. The Jazz have held the Clippers to an average of 110 points. That's four points below the Clippers' season average. Utah has Rudy Gobert, the defensive player of the year, and Bojan Bogdanovic played tremendous defense against Kawhi Leonard during the final quarter of Game 2. George is shooting 12-of-35 from the field in the series. The Clippers can't really rely on others for big-scoring performances besides Leonard and George. The Jazz finished in the top-3 in the major defensive categories - scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. So I envision defense ruling the day in this Game 3 matchup.
06-11-21	Suns +1.5 v. Nuggets	Top	116-102	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
I understand and respect the zig/zag theory of playoff basketball. Denver is down 0-2, returning home in must-win mode. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. I have no doubt that the Nuggets will go all out, mustering all of their intensity. But it won't be enough. This series is a mismatch. Phoenix is playing too well and is two levels - not just one level - above the Nuggets right now. Chris Paul has a 26-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio in the series. Devin Booker is a force. The Nuggets are totally overmatched in the backcourt. This is where Denver really misses injured Jamal Murray. The Nuggets' backcourt is composed of Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo. These aren't playoff-caliber starters. Rivers is a journeyman. Campazzo is a reserve thrust in an ill-suited starter's role. The Nuggets were able to overcome the Trail Blazers in their previous playoff series because Portland isn't a good defensive club. Phoenix is. The Suns don't have a weak defender. Phoenix hasn't surrendered more than 109 points in a playoff game. Denver is averaging 101.5 points against the Suns. That's 14 points below its season scoring average. Aside from Nikola Jokic, who has been good but not dominant, the Nuggets don't have the scorers to defeat the Suns. Michael Porter Jr. has back problems and Aaron Gordon is best when he's not needed to be counted on like he is here. The Suns have thrived in this role covering 13 of the last 19 times as a 'dog.
06-10-21	Nets v. Bucks -3.5	Top	83-86	Loss	-109	9 h 44 m	Show
It's kind of scary to think how good the Nets would be if they had James Harden having beaten the Bucks by a combined 47 points during the first two games of this series. Both of those victories came in Brooklyn. Harden won't be able to play in this Game 3. Certainly tremendous credit to the Nets. But are the Bucks really this outclassed? I don't see it. Neither does the linesmaker, who has installed Milwaukee as a solid home favorite for this game. The Bucks can beat the Nets inside. They just haven't been able to keep up with the Nets from 3-point range. New Jersey is shooting 44.4 percent from beyond the arc, while the Bucks have made just 24.6 percent of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton has been especially cold. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a minus 22 rating when he was on the court in Game 2. Middleton isn't a star, but he's certainly better than he's shown. Antetokounmpo isn't in the Michael Jordan/LeBron James Top of the World category, but he's easily one of the 10 best in the NBA right now, if not among the five best in the league. The Bucks went 4-0 following a loss of at least 20 points. After each blowout loss, they responded with a victory in the following game, winning those games by an average of 18.8 points. The Nets are playing on house money right now going on the road up 2-0. The Bucks are home and have tremendous motivation especially with their pride on the line. Maybe the Nets win this series. But a sweep? No sir.
06-08-21	Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 220.5		109-112	Loss	-100	14 h 13 m	Show
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George just aren't great scorers. They're top defenders, too. The Clippers gave up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA and ranked sixth in 3-point defense. LA held the Mavericks to an average of 98.5 points during the last four games of their recently concluded series. Utah is even better defensively. The Jazz rank in the top three in several major defensive categories, including fewest points per game, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Clippers are likely to settle for a slow pace having had a short turnaround after going the full seven games with the Mavericks. That series ended two days ago. The Jazz are facing a rust factor. They haven't played in six days. Utah could be minus point guard Mike Conley, who averaged 17.4 points and 8.6 assists against the Grizzlies in the Jazz's last playoff series. Conley is dealing with a hamstring strain. The Clippers scored 126 points against the Mavericks in their Game 7. Dallas isn't the defense team Utah is. The Clippers also went with a smaller lineup against Dallas. That probably isn't going to be the case here where the Clippers will switch to a taller, slower lineup in order to combat 7-foot-1 Rudy Gobert and reserve center Derrick Favors.
06-07-21	Bucks v. Nets OVER 233.5		86-125	Loss	-111	14 h 15 m	Show
Even though Game 1 finished well under the total. This series is about offense with two explosive teams. The Nets produced 115 points in Game 1 despite having James Harden for less than a minute. Harden won't play in this Game 2, but the Nets know that and have made adjustments. They were the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA at 118.6 points while rarely having Harden teamed up with fellow superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at the same time. The Bucks were the only team to outscore the Nets during the season, averaging a league-best 120.1 points per game. Both team's defenses were below average ranking 21st and 22nd. Milwaukee dominated Brooklyn inside, producing 72 points inside the paint with Giannis Antetokounmpo making 16 of 24 shots from the floor. The Game 1 total went Under because the Bucks shot just 20 percent from 3-point range making 6-of-30. Milwaukee's free throw shooting was off, too. The Bucks made just 58 percent on 11-of-19. The Bucks were the fifth-best 3-point shooting team at 38.9 and made 76 percent of their free throws.
06-07-21	Bucks +2 v. Nets	Top	86-125	Loss	-121	14 h 16 m	Show
No getting around it. The Bucks did not play well in Game 1 this past Saturday losing, 115-107, despite James Harden only playing less than a minute before suffering a hamstring injury. Joe Harris and Blake Griffin picked up some of Harden's scoring slack making a combined 9 of 18 from 3-point range. That's not likely to occur again. Harden is ruled out and the Bucks should shoot a lot better from beyond the arc than their 6-of-30 in Game 1. The Bucks also made only 58 percent of their free throws going 11-for-19. What the Bucks did right is bury the Nets with 72 points in the paint. Much of this inside damage was done by superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Nets couldn't contain him as he scored 34 points on 16 of 24 shooting from the floor. The Bucks should shoot much better this time around. They ranked in the top-five in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. There is no Harden. The Nets are vulnerable inside and can't stop Antetokounmpo. So look for Game 2 to go to the Bucks.
06-06-21	Hawks v. 76ers -2.5	Top	128-124	Loss	-117	8 h 35 m	Show
I'm not expecting Joel Embiid to play. Nice bonus if he does, but I'm certainly not counting on that. The 76ers know how to win without him especially with adequate preparation time, which is the case here. The 76ers closed out the Wizards at home without Embiid. They beat Washington by 17 points despite not playing that well. Philadelphia is 32-7 at home. The Hawks are not a strong road club. Atlanta went 0-6 during its last six regular-season away contests versus opposing playoff teams, including a pair of blowout losses to the 76ers in late April. The 76ers won those two home games by an average of 33 points! Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last six visits to Philadelphia. The 76ers have steadily been building for this moment. The Hawks have done well to advance this far. However, they are young and lack playoff experience. They have not paid their playoff dues to oust the 76ers even if Embiid sits out this series opener. Atlanta's defense greatly improved when Nate McMillan replaced Lloyd Pierce. But the Hawks' defense isn't at the 76ers' top-six level. The 76ers aren't going to sacrifice much on the boards either without Embiid since they have Dwight Howard and Mike Scott to fill in those minutes.
06-05-21	Bucks v. Nets UNDER 239.5		107-115	Win	100	11 h 53 m	Show
Yes there will be four superstars on the court so perhaps the oddsmaker is justified in putting out a total this large. But this also is a playoff game, with defense and intensity at its highest, plus there is a rust factor. The Bucks haven't played in a week. The Nets last played five days ago. Milwaukee had the fifth-best defensive field goal percentage in the league. The Bucks held Miami to 96 points per game during their four-game sweep. That's 12 points below what the Heat averaged during the regular season. Jrue Holiday is an ace defender. He can neutralize James Harden. The Nets won't have Jeff Green. Sure Green isn't Harden, Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant. Still, he's Brooklyn's fourth-leading scorer. Green provides continuity having played in 68 games, second-most on the Nets, and versatility. Green's absence could mean minutes for DeAndre Jordan, who is an Under bettor's best friend. Jordan is a tremendous shot-blocker who has no offensive game. His shooting range is about two feet. The Nets have stiffened their defense lately, holding foes to 109 points or fewer in five of the past seven games.
06-04-21	Clippers -136 v. Mavs	Top	104-97	Win	100	14 h 1 m	Show
It's not just the Zig/Zag and the Clippers being 8-2 ATS during their last 10 visits to Dallas. I like the Clippers because they have two proven superstars to the Mavericks' one. This has been a road series with the visitor covering each of the first five games. I believe the Clippers are the superior team and will prevail here. Luka Doncic is the Mavericks' lone reliable star and he's not 100 percent. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George give the Clippers two superstars to the Mavericks' one. Much credit to the feisty Mavericks for putting the Clippers on the brink of elimination with their, 105-100, Game 5 road victory as 7 1/2-point 'dogs. But the Clippers still had open looks and were aggressive in the paint. I'm not sold on the Mavericks' zone defenses. The Clippers can dent them. This bodes well for LA's chances in this Game 6.
06-03-21	Suns v. Lakers UNDER 207.5	Top	113-100	Loss	-106	13 h 22 m	Show
The Under is 4-0-1 in this series. The lone push should have gone Under, too, but late fouls caused it to push. I don't see any reason not to believe this game won't go Under, too. It should being the sixth game of the series with the Lakers at home trailing, 3-2. The Lakers can't match the Suns' firepower with Anthony Davis either sidelined, or severely limited because of a groin injury. LA needs a supreme defensive effort. The Lakers certainly are capable of this having finished as the No. 2 defense in the league. The Under is 12-5 during the Lakers' last 17 home games. There's also a strong Under bias when these two teams have played in LA with the low side winning seven of the past nine times. The Suns are no slouch defensively either ranking seventh in the NBA. They have held the Lakers to an average of 97 points during the five games in the series. Davis isn't the only key player hurting. Chris Paul is dealing with a shoulder injury. So I'm expecting another slow-paced game with each team taking their time looking for the right shot, probing the defense. This is playoff basketball at it's most intense with the Lakers facing elimination and the Suns out to prove themselves. That means defense rules in this matchup.
06-01-21	Blazers v. Nuggets -115	Top	140-147	Win	100	19 h 27 m	Show
The Nuggets fell behind in their playoff series against the Jazz and Clippers last season. Denver won both of those series. The Nuggets find themselves down 2-1 to the Trail Blazers this season. I'm confident the Nuggets will win this home matchup to even the series after being embarrassed, 115-95, this past Saturday at Portland. Denver has had two full days to absorb that flat performance and being called "soft" by its coach, Michael Malone. The Nuggets have a much better defense than the Trail Blazers, have the deeper bench and should come out with super intensity and purpose. I certainly don't expect the Nuggets to hit just 34 percent of their shots from the floor like they did in Game 3, nor shoot 29.5 percent from 3-point range. Denver ranked 4th in field goal percentage during the regular season and eighth in 3-point shooting accuracy. Portland ranked 25th in defensive field goal percentage. Denver has won eight of its past 10 home games. This is the Nuggets' biggest home game of the season.
05-31-21	Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5	Top	120-113	Loss	-102	13 h 26 m	Show
After getting a split in Utah, the Grizzlies lost, 121-111, at home this past Saturday to fall behind the Jazz two games to one in their playoff series. So this really becomes a must-win spot for the Grizzlies because a loss sends them to Utah down 3-1 in the series. I trust the Grizzlies to get that win, if not hang very close in this Game 4. The Grizzlies outrebounded the Jazz in Game 3, including holding a nine-rebound advantage on the offensive boards. But the Grizzlies couldn't withstand Utah's hot 49.4 shooting from the floor. The Jazz scored 18 more points from 3-point range and 10 more points from the free throw line, getting 13 more free throw opportunities. Memphis had good looks at the basket. The Grizzlies were just cold, unlike Utah. I expect the Grizzlies to shoot better. The Jazz haven't been able to stop Ja Morant. I also expect the Jazz to score fewer points. Until that loss two days ago, Memphis had held its past five opponents at home to an average of 105.2 points. That would rank No. 2 in the NBA if that were a season average. Memphis has covered 71 percent the last 14 times it has been an underdog. The Grizzlies also have covered five of the past six times they were a home 'dog.
05-30-21	Clippers -3 v. Mavs	Top	106-81	Win	100	20 h 34 m	Show
The Clippers were in deep trouble of not only getting swept by the Mavericks, but also becoming a national joke trailing 2-0 in the series and down by 19 points on the road in Game 3. But the Clippers got it together and won Game 3, 118-108 this past Friday. This doesn't mean the series is over. However, the momentum has shifted. The Clippers have figured things out and I do see them winning Game 4. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are living up to their superstar labels averaging 34.3 points and 26.7 points, respectively. Luka Doncic is a monster for Dallas. The rest of the Mavericks I don't trust, including Kristaps Porzingis. The Mavericks shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 1 and made an unbelievable 58.5 percent of their shots from the floor in Game 2. They only are an average scoring team. So those games weren't normal. The Clippers are the No. 4 defensive team in the NBA. They ranked sixth in defensive field goal percentage. Dallas shot 44.2 percent from the field in Game 3. The Mavericks made 47 percent of their field goals during the regular season. They are not a 50 percent shooting team especially against an upper tier defense. Dallas has failed to cover seven of the past nine times it has hosted the Clippers.
05-29-21	Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5	Top	95-115	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
This series is three games old and all three games have gone Over. Now we have our first daytime start. That's a plus for the Under because of the unfamiliarity. But the main reason why I'm going Under is pace. The tempo hasn't been fast. The shooting has been outstanding, though. It looked for sure that Game 3 was going Under. But there were more than 50 points scored during the last six minutes of the Nuggets' 120-115 victory Thursday, including 29 during the final 2:29. The Nuggets shot a blazing 20-of-38 from 3-point range for 53 percent. Journeyman Austin Rivers was on fire. I understand these teams have superstars. But only seven teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Nuggets, who also were No. 1 in defensive rebounding. The Trail Blazers aren't a good defensive team, but their intensity should be sky high after falling behind 2-1 in the series with Thursday's home loss. Portland also doesn't have to contend with Nuggets star Jamal Murray. I just don't see a hot-shooting game again here and that's what is needed to make this one go Over.
05-28-21	Nets -7.5 v. Celtics		119-125	Loss	-108	15 h 40 m	Show
Forget any zig-zag theory. The Celtics don't have it this year. They are a dead team. They can't stay within single digits of the powerhouse Nets. Brooklyn was flat in Game 1 yet still won by 11 points. Then the Nets built a 24-point halftime lead in Game 2 and won by 22 points. James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant didn't even need to play major minutes. The only player Boston really trusts is Jayson Tatum with Jaylen Brown out. Tatum could be pressing. He's hit just 9-of-32 shots from the floor. Then in Tuesday's Game 2 Tatum had to leave the game after getting poked in the eye. He'll play here, but he may not be 100 percent.
05-28-21	Knicks v. Hawks -4		94-105	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
The Hawks have been able to bottle up Julius Randle, but the Knicks haven't been able to stop Trae Young. The result is the Hawks got a 1-1 split in New York Now this playoff series scene shifts to Atlanta where the Hawks have been the hottest home team in the NBA with 11 straight victories. Atlanta has won 19 of its last 21 home contests and has covered 72 percent of its past 32 home games. The Hawks will have their first capacity crowd of 21,000 against the Knicks for the first time since COVID-19 limitations were put in place. Randle, the Knicks' best player, has missed 28 of 39 shots from the floor. Young is averaging 31 points in the series and has made 22 of 43 shots from the field for 51 percent while also dishing off 17 assists. Young is streaky and right now he's hot and has his confidence. Now he's home where the Hawks have covered 16 of the last 21 times as a home favorite.
05-28-21	Knicks v. Hawks OVER 211		94-105	Loss	-107	13 h 2 m	Show
I see the Hawks coming out aggressive in full attack mode after settling for too many outside shots in a 101-92 road loss to the Knicks this past Wednesday. Atlanta is much stronger at home. The Hawks shoot 47.5 from the floor and 38.4 percent from 3-point range at home compared to 46 percent and 36.2 percent on the road. The Hawks are averaging 123.8 points during their last six home games. They didn't face defenses as tough as the Knicks, but still that's an impressive recent figure. Trae Young is shooting 51 percent from the floor, averaging 31 points in the series. The Knicks haven't been able to slow him down. Young also is averaging 8.5 assists. Julius Randle, on the other hand, is having a bad series and due for a breakout game. The Knicks shot only 38 percent from the floor two days ago yet still managed to score 101 points. The tempo should pick up with the change in venue and so should Randle's 28 percent field goal shooting accuracy.
05-27-21	Suns +7 v. Lakers	Top	95-109	Loss	-100	20 h 4 m	Show
LeBron James is fine. Chris Paul is not. Paul's playing almost with just one arm because of a shoulder injury. Despite this, I like the Suns to cover this Game 3 margin. The Lakers often are overpriced at home. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Suns didn't achieve the NBA's second-best record by not overcoming some adversity and by not being resilient. They deserve more respect. Phoenix is 11-3 ATS following a loss and has covered seven of the past nine times when taking points on the road. Paul was ineffective because of his injury when the Lakers evened the series at 1-1 by defeating the Suns, 109-102, two days ago. I'm not expecting much now from the 36-year-old Paul. But I do have faith in reserve point guard Cameron Payne. He played well in that Game 2 loss. James and Paul dominate the headlines. Paul isn't the Suns' best player, though. Devin Booker is. He's an emerging superstar. who doesn't get the attention he deserves. Big man Deandre Ayton gives the Suns the fourth-best player on the court next to James, Anthony Davis and Booker. The Lakers have enough superstar greatness and savvy to probably win this series. But there aren't going to be blowout games. The Suns will keep this one close.
05-26-21	Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 218		129-141	Win	100	15 h 11 m	Show
Despite subpar shooting from both teams, the Grizzlies and Jazz still put up a combined 221 points in Memphis' 112-109 upset win this past Sunday. The Grizzlies shot 45 percent from the floor, which is below their season average. Utah shot a cold 42 percent from the field. The Jazz shot 46.8 percent from the floor during the regular season while being the fourth-highest scoring team in the league at 116.4 points a game. The Jazz had trouble containing strong wing players in the postseason last year and they had problems with Ja Morant, who shot 11 of 21 from the field and scored 26 points. But even more alarming for the Jazz was the lack of defensive inside help for Rudy Gobert. Memphis scored 62 points in the paint. That's not a fluke. The Grizzlies are a great offensive rebounding team with Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson Jr. Memphis is just an average defensive team. So I'm looking for the Jazz to score a lot more than they did in Game 1 especially with Donovan Mitchell set to make his playoff debut. Only 10 players scored more points per game than Mitchell this season. Even if Mitchell is rusty, his presence frees up sharpshooters Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles while making Gobert more dangerous in the low post. The last six games between the two teams played in Utah have all gone Over.
05-25-21	Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 216.5	Top	127-121	Loss	-109	18 h 5 m	Show
The Mavericks shot 50 percent from the floor while also sinking 17 of 36 3-pointers for 47 percent. There were a combined 50 free throws. Yet the Mavericks and Clippers still went Under 217 1/2 in the Mavericks' 113-103 Game 1 victory. Now the total has opened a point shorter for this Game 2 matchup. Under still is the way to go. I expect the Clippers to tighten their defense, not giving the Mavericks nearly as many open looks as they did in Game 1. Luka Doncic was held to one point during the fourth quarter because the Clippers decided to fully concentrate on him forcing the rest of the Dallas players to beat them from the perimeter - which they did. I don't see the Mavericks repeating their outside shooting. LA gave up the fourth-fewest points during the regular season, while ranking sixth in 3-point defense. Kawhi Leonard is one of the premier defensive players in the NBA. Tempo is huge in handicapping a total. The Mavericks-Clippers Game 1 had the slowest pace of any playoff game. It took exceptional shooting by the Mavericks and a larger than expected number of free throws to even get it close to the projected total.
05-25-21	Celtics v. Nets -9.5		108-130	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
The defense was solid, but the Nets didn't play well offensively shooting just 41.7 percent from the floor in Game 1 against the Celtics. Yet the Nets still are such a superior team they won, 104-93. This was a blown opportunity for the Celtics. Not only could the Celtics not win the game, they couldn't even cover as 8-point 'dogs. It was the first time this season Boston had to face the Nets with James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant in the lineup together. The Nets never had all three of them versus the Celtics during the regular season when they swept the three meetings winning by an average of 15 points. The Nets also didn't have the huge home crowd support like they have now. More than 14,000 fans should be watching this one at Barclays Center. Boston has failed to cover during its seven visits to the Nets. Brooklyn has covered 13 of the last 16 times it has been favored. Jayson Tatum isn't going to score 50 points, which is what the Celtics need with Jaylen Brown out and Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier proving unreliable. I admire Brad Stevens believing him to be one of the best coaches in the league. But this isn't the Celtics' year. They have regressed very much. Boston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games. The Celtics are outclassed here and haven't shown any tendency that they can meet this huge challenge. So I have no qualms about laying this many points.
05-24-21	Heat +4.5 v. Bucks	Top	98-132	Loss	-103	11 h 42 m	Show
The Bucks have been a dominant team for the last several years. But they've always had problems with Miami. The Bucks were fortunate to win Game 1 at home this past Saturday, nipping the Heat, 109-107, on a basket by Khris Middleton with a second left in overtime. The Heat came that close despite Jimmy Butler enduring the worst shooting performance of his career. Bam Adebayo, the Heat's second-best player next to Butler, also had a bad shooting game. Combined they were 8-of-37 from the floor for 22 percent. The Bucks dominated the Heat inside the paint outscoring Miami, 56-24. I highly doubt Butler and Abebayo shoot that bad again and the Heat should be better in the paint, too. The Heat led the NBA in paint defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Expect the Heat to play much better in this Game 2. The Heat will need to hit their 3-pointers like they did in Game 1, but those looks are there for them. The Bucks had the worst 3-point shooting defense in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been favored.
05-23-21	Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 215.5		112-109	Win	100	19 h 10 m	Show
It was weird scheduling, but it could be telling. The Grizzlies and Jazz met three times during a span of six days from March 26-31. Utah won all three. The combined final scores totaled 231, 236 and 218 points, all of which are higher than what this total opened. Sure I get that this is playoff basketball now. But I remain unconvinced that defense will be more dominant than offense. Utah is the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA at 116.4. The Jazz have reached at least 121 points in four of their last seven games. The Grizzlies are an average at best defensive team. Not only do they have to deal with Rudy Gobert inside and the outside scoring of Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles, but All-Star guard Donovan MItchell and Mike Conley are back healthy now, too. Mitchell hasn't played in more than a month because of an ankle injury, but he's ready now. He's averaging 26.4 points. The Jazz have something to prove after blowing a 3-1 lead to the Nuggets in their playoff series last season. They won't be adverse to running up a score to send out a clear message. The Grizzlies have scorers, too, along with a tremendous playmaker in Ja Morant. Memphis has the wing players to give the Jazz trouble on the defensive end. Note, too, that each of the past five meetings between the two teams has gone Over.
05-23-21	Hawks v. Knicks -116	Top	107-105	Loss	-116	17 h 46 m	Show
The oddsmaker hasn't respected the Knicks all season and he's certainly not respecting them here with such a short line. All the Knicks have done is lead the NBA in defense, win 16 of their last 20 games and cover 18 of their past 23 games (78 percent). New York swept the Hawks in three meetings this season. The Hawks couldn't stop Julius Randle. Atlanta is 0-6-1 ATS in its past seven games against the Knicks. The Hawks also have failed to cover in their last five overall away games. The Knicks went 25-11 at home this season. Some 15,000 fans are expected to jam Madison Square Garden to see the Knicks' first playoff game in eight years. That will be the biggest Knicks home crowd in 14 months. It's not like the Hawks have much recent playoff experience either. They last reached the postseason in 2017. Randle is the best all-around player on the court. The Knicks have held their last five opponents to 97 points a game. The Hawks haven't been able to beat the Knicks all season. I don't see that changing in this Game 1 matchup. .
05-23-21	Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5		90-99	Win	100	13 h 60 m	Show
The Lakers aren't going to race past any elite foe. The veteran Lakers are savvy enough to realize the way to beat the upstart Suns is to play slow and ugly. Then, in the end, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will win them the game. James and Davis not only are great offensive players, but outstanding defensive ones, too. That sometimes gets overlooked. LA was the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA this season. The Suns rely on Chris Paul to maintain their tempo and poise. Paul turned 36 a couple of weeks ago. He's been a slowdown point guard for the past few years. The Lakers aren't going to let the Suns run and the Suns don't want to run. So the pace should be slow. Phoenix also has to deal with nerves and a rust factor. The Suns last made the playoffs in 2010. They haven't played in a week. The Under is 7-1 the past eight times the Suns have played following three or more days of rest.
05-22-21	Celtics v. Nets -7.5	Top	93-104	Win	100	16 h 9 m	Show
The Celtics managed to sneak into the playoffs as the eighth-seed. But don't get fooled. This has been a broken season for Boston. Things aren't suddenly going to get fixed for the Celtics drawing this tough opponent especially with Jalen Brown out. Brooklyn had a dominating season despite rarely having Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving on the court together. Now all three superstars are healthy at just the right time. The Nets are not a strong defensive club, but their explosiveness factor is off the charts. Brown not only was Boston's second-best player, but he would have been a major defensive help. Marcus Smart can't cover three superstars by himself and underrated Robert Williams isn't 100 percent. The Nets swept the Celitcs winning by a combined 45 points in their three games this season. Not once in any of those matchup were Durant, Harden and Irving all able to play in the same game. Now they can. The Celtics are 5-9 in their last 14 games. Aside from Jayson Tatum, there has been major regression from the past couple of seasons for Boston. The Celtics also have failed to cover during their past six road games against the Nets. The class difference between these two teams is more than single digits, especially when playing in Brooklyn.
05-21-21	Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 221		117-112	Loss	-102	15 h 57 m	Show
The teams just met this past Sunday with postseason implications involved. Golden State won, 113-101. It was the fourth straight time the Grizzlies and Warriors went Under the total when playing at Golden State. The Warriors shot 49 percent from the floor, hit 15 of 39 3-pointers and connected on 89 percent of their free throws. So the Warriors' shooting was strong - and the game still went Under with 214 combined points. Stephen Curry finished with 46 points in that game, but was held in check until about 6 1/2 minutes were left by the defensive efforts of Dillon Brooks, who fouled out at that point. Before his forced departure, Brooks held Curry to 11-of-27 shooting from the floor while forcing five turnovers from Curry. Curry has logged 81 minutes in the last two games, the one against the Grizzlies and the game against the Lakers two days ago. Those are the most non-overtime minutes he's played during two straight games this season. Curry is 33 and has had his worst shooting games when physically exhausted. The combination of Brooks and fatigue could reduce Curry's effectiveness, which is the key to Golden State's scoring. The Grizzlies are giving up 105.4 points in their last seven games. The Warriors have held seven of their last 10 opponents to 108 or fewer points.