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NBA Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-28-18	Nets v. Hornets -4.5		87-100	Win	100	19 h 22 m	Show
The Hornets just have to wait two days to get redemption. That's how long their last game was, which happened to be a 134-132 overtime road loss to the Nets on Wednesday. The Hornets blew an eight-point lead during the final three-plus minutes of regulation. The Nets are improved and playing well. But Charlotte is the better team and has the best player, Kemba Walker. The Nets slowed down Walker in the fourth quarter using a form of box-and-one that might have caught the Hornets off guard. Charlotte will be better prepared this time around. This back-and-back series has a playoff and zig-and-zag feel to it. So I want the Hornets going for me here.
12-26-18	Nuggets v. Spurs -3		103-111	Win	100	22 h 56 m	Show
The Nuggets have been a major surprise opening the season with 21 wins in their first 31 games. A regression is coming, though, for Denver. That was evident in its last game, a 132-111 blowout loss to the Clippers on the road this past Saturday. That was Denver's worst loss of the season. Denver is down three starters with Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton all out. Big man Millsap is an underrated loss. The Clippers dominated the paint against the Nuggets scoring 80 points down low while shooting a blistering 57.6 percent from the field. The Clippers also outrebounded the Nuggets by 21 boards. The Spurs are coming on after a slow start. They are 7-2 in their last nine games with five of those victories coming by 25 or more points. LaMarcus Aldridge can have a big game with Millsap out. San Antonio has covered 73 percent of its past 30 home games.
12-25-18	76ers v. Celtics -4	Top	114-121	Win	100	18 h 50 m	Show
Strong at home, bad on the road particularly in Boston. That's the 76ers, who are 16-3 at home, but 6-9 on the road. Philadelphia has failed to cover during its last four visits to Boston, including getting buried, 105-87, by the Celtics in the season opener at TD Garden. That was Boston's 10th straight home win against Philadelphia. The Celtics have the deeper bench and are inside the mentally fragile 76ers' heads having defeated them in 13 of the last 15 regular season meetings. It's not just the Celtics. The 76ers have been blown out on the road by other quality teams losing by 27 to the Spurs, by 11 and 17 to the Raptors and by 15 to the Bucks. They even were destroyed by the Nets, losing by 25. Boston is coming off an impressive 119-103 home win against Charlotte on Sunday, a much-needed win that snapped a three-game losing streak. The Celtics got two of their key injured big men back for that game, Al Horford and Marcus Morris. Look for the Celtics to build on that victory. Boston has a much tougher defense than the 76ers ranking fourth compared to Philadelphia's 23rd rating and far more depth.
12-23-18	Hornets v. Celtics -7		103-119	Win	100	15 h 53 m	Show
This is a circle-the-wagons home game for Boston following three losses in a row. The Celtics held a long meeting following their Friday night home loss to the Bucks. I see the Celtics rebounding in a big way against the Hornets, who are not a good road team. The Celtics have covered 74 percent of their last 31 home games. Charlotte is 4-8 on the road. The Hornets have suffered road losses to the Hawks and Cavaliers. This marks their first away game since Dec. 9. The Celtics swept the Hornets at home during each of the last two seasons going 3-0-1 ATS in those games.
12-22-18	Nuggets v. Clippers -110		111-132	Win	100	14 h 55 m	Show
The Clippers are back to winning with the return of key sixth man Lou Williams. Williams helped the Clippers beat the Mavericks, 125-121, at home on Thursday to halt a four-game losing streak. Williams had missed the previous four games - all of which were losses - because of a hamstring injury. The buy sign is on for me here against the Nuggets. Denver is crippled and rusty. The Nuggets have lost their last two road games, falling to the Hawks and Hornets. Denver had to go into overtime to beat the Magic in the road game before those two. All three of those teams are worse than the Clippers. Denver last was in action on Tuesday. This is too long of a layoff between games. The Nuggets are without three opening-night starters, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton. Saturday Free Play Heat plus 3 hosting Bucks Bad matchup, bad timing. Look for those factors to do in the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off a huge road victory against the Celtics Friday night. The Bucks hardly had time to celebrate before flying into South Florida to take on the Heat. Not only is Milwaukee playing without rest, but it's the Bucks' third game in four nights and fourth game in six days all at different venues. Miami is a tough opponent for the Bucks. Not only are the Heat playing their best ball with three straight victories - holding the Grizzlies, Pelicans and Rockets all below 100 points in those wins - but they have the defense, offensive rebounding and slowdown style to frustrate the high-scoring Bucks. Miami is 7-3 in its last 10 games, its best stretch. So it's not a fluke the Heat have defeated Milwaukee five times in a row. The Heat held the Bucks to just 88.3 points in sweeping the three-game series last season. The Bucks are flash and offense with today's new kind of superstar in multi-talented Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat are old-school slowing tempo with a powerful commitment to defense. This clash in styles has worked in Miami's favor. The oddsmaker has no choice but to open the Bucks a road favorite. Milwauklee is 2-5-1 ATS in that role the past eight times.
12-21-18	Wolves v. Spurs -4		98-124	Win	100	12 h 37 m	Show
The Spurs are playing better going 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven games. The Spurs are a strong home team - 21-8 ATS in their past 29 home contests. Minnesota is 2-12 SU, 5-9 ATS on the road. Minnesota is 1-5 in its last six games. The Timberwolves are below average defensively and rank 25th in defensive field goal percentage. The Spurs are No. 1 in 3-point shooting percentage and in free throw percentage. The Spurs won't lack motivation as this is a revenge spot for them having suffered one of their worst defeats in the Gregg Popovich era, losing 128-89 in Minnesota on Nov. 28.
12-19-18	Warriors -2.5 v. Jazz		103-108	Loss	-109	11 h 44 m	Show
I understand that Utah has been dealt a bad early season hand by the NBA schedulemakers. The Jazz have endured a brutal, road-heavy schedule. But they are 1-4 in their last five games, lack consistency, rank 26th in 3-point shooting and are not a top-three defense anymore. So I can't see them defeating a healthy Warriors team that is coming on since Stephen Curry returned to the lineup. Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson all are playing well. Golden State is 6-2 in its last eight games. When focused, the Warriors can destroy any opponent. Golden State doesn't play again until Saturday. So that focus, concentration and effort should all be there.
12-18-18	Lakers -129 v. Nets	Top	110-115	Loss	-129	19 h 59 m	Show
The Nets are playing their best ball winning their last five games. But I see that streak ending here. There is zero chance now of the Lakers taking Brooklyn lightly especially after losing in embarrassing fashion to the Wizards, 128-110, this past Sunday. LeBron James was held to a season-low 13 points in that defeat. Look for the Lakers to be much more focused. They are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover. The prideful James should rebound with a strong game. The Nets are a bottom-10 defensive team. LA has by far the better talent and is 12-3-3 ATS during its past 18 visits to Brooklyn.
12-16-18	Kings v. Mavs -5		120-113	Loss	-103	17 h 38 m	Show
Quitely, below the radar, Dallas has rattled off 11 straight home victories, going 10-1 ATS in these games. The Mavericks have beaten teams much better than the Kings during this home win streak such as the Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, Rockets and Clippers. It should be an emotional game, too, for the Mavericks as Dirk Nowitzki is set to make his season debut. The Kings are one of the more improved teams in the NBA. However, Sacramento is off a hard-played 130-125 home loss to the Warriors from Friday night. The Kings nearly upset the Warriors in their first meeting against them this season losing, 117-116, on the road. The Kings were blown out by the Jazz, 133-112, in their next game following that loss to the Warriors. Dallas lost in its last game this past Thursday, falling to lowly Phoenix on the road, 99-89, as six-point favorites. The Mavericks should come back strong after that humiliation. They are 6-0 ATS when having two or more days rest between games.
12-15-18	Lakers -127 v. Hornets		128-100	Win	100	9 h 22 m	Show
The Lakers are off a bad loss to the Rockets. That was on Thursday. The Hornets suffered a 126-124 home loss to the lowly Knicks Friday night. Charlotte's five starters are logged more than 36 minutes. The Hornets have failed to cover in four of their last five home games and are 5-12 ATS in their past 17 games versus Western Conference foes. The Hornets live-and-die with Kemba Walker and he logged more than 40 minutes last night. LeBron James gets up for this opponent, too. So expect an easy Lakers victory. The Lakers have been playing well until that Rockets loss winning six of their past seven leading into that game.
12-14-18	Hawks +13 v. Celtics	Top	108-129	Loss	-105	21 h 31 m	Show
The Celtics have won seven in a row, including getting past the Wizards on the road Wednesday despite missing Al Horford, Gordon Hayward and Jaylon Brown. Now the Celtics draw the lowly Hawks at home with a road game looming against the Pistons on Saturday. Not only is the backdoor open for the Hawks, but so is the possibility they can hang in and make this a game. Horford remains out. Hayward and Brown are questionable. Both are ill. The Celtics have no need to rush either back given their depth and not taking the Hawks as a serious threat. Atlanta has covered its last two games. The Hawks upset the Nuggets at home and lost by seven points as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Mavericks. The Hawks are averaging 112.7 points in their last seven games if you toss out a 94-point performance they had against the Hornets. The 112.7-point average would rank 10th best if computed during the entire season. The Celtics have not been good in this type of role failing to cover 12 of the past 15 times when laying more than eight points.
12-13-18	Clippers v. Spurs -3		87-125	Win	100	10 h 6 m	Show
I'm going to poke my toe in the water and test out if the buy sign is on for the Spurs. Indications are it is, at least for this matchup. San Antonio has won and covered its past three games, all at home. The Spurs draw the Clippers playing for the third time in four days and fourth time in six days. The Clippers have cooled off losing four of their last six games. They just got waxed, 123-99, at home by the Raptors on Tuesday. Toronto didn't have Kawhi Leonard in that game either. The Clippers didn't have their star sixth man, Lou Williams, in that game due to a hamstring injury. It's an added plus if Williams can't play tonight.
12-12-18	Wolves -125 v. Kings	Top	130-141	Loss	-125	22 h 27 m	Show
The Timberwolves are playing better defense and have improved team chemistry. The result has been a 7-2 ATS mark in their last nine games. Minnesota, though, has dropped the first two games of its current four-game road swing. Those losses occurred to the Warriors and Trail Blazers. Now the Timberwolves step down in class visting the Kings. Sacramento is much improved from last season. But the Timberwolves have more experience and better talent, especially with Karl-Anthony Towns shaking off his early season poor performances. The spot is bad for the Kings. It is their first game back from a four-game road swing that concluded Monday night in Chicago. Sacramento buried the Bulls in that game, while winning three of the four away games during the trip. The Kings are fat and happy. Their focus could be off, too, since they last played at home 11 days ago. Sacramento is 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a road trip of seven or more days. Minnesota also has revenge for a 121-110 road loss to the Kings on Nov. 9 when it still had Jimmy Butler. Since that defeat, the Timberwolves have gone 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS on the road.
12-12-18	Knicks -125 v. Cavs		106-113	Loss	-125	19 h 24 m	Show
The Knicks are in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. That wouldn't mean anything if the Knicks weren't superior to the Cavaliers, but they are especially with the Cavaliers down their best big man, Tristan Thompson. He was having his best season averaging 12 points and 11.6 rebounds per game, but suffered a foot injury in Cleveland's last game and will be sidelined two-to-four weeks. Prior to their last losing streak, the Knicks had defeated the Celtics, Pelicans, Grizzlies and Bucks in a span of 11 days starting from Nov. 21. The Cavaliers can't beat all of those teams. The Knicks should be well rested and prepared. They haven't played since Sunday. The Cavaliers, though, are playing for the fourth time in six days. The Knicks also have played the Cavaliers tough in Cleveland even when the Cavs had LeBron James covering six of the past eight times there.
12-10-18	Heat v. Lakers -6.5	Top	105-108	Loss	-109	13 h 14 m	Show
The Heat have opened their current six-game road trip with victories against the Suns and Clippers. I don't expect them to make it three wins in a row. The Lakers have been playing better going 5-1 in their last six games with all of their victories coming by eight or more points. The Lakers rolled past the Heat, 113-97, at Miami on Nov. 18. They hold a huge talent edge. Miami could be without two of its key players. Josh Richardson is dealing with a shoulder injury and Hassan Whitesite has been out for personal reasons.
12-10-18	Pelicans v. Celtics -6.5		100-113	Win	100	11 h 22 m	Show
After a 10-10 start, the Celtics have begun to get it going winning five in a row. The Celtics draw the Pelicans at home. New Orleans is coming off a rare road victory beating the Pistons, 116-108, on Sunday. New Orleans is 4-10 away from home, 6-8 ATS. The Pelicans are playing without rest and there is the possibility they may be without Anthony Davis. He's dealing with a hip injury. The Pelicans rank 27th defensively. The Celtics surrender nearly 13 fewer points per game than the Pelicans. The Celtics rolled past the Pelicans in New Orleans on Nov. 26. The Pelicans had Anthony Davis in that game. They also made 27 of 29 free throws yet still lost by 17 points.
12-09-18	Bucks v. Raptors -5.5		104-99	Loss	-103	8 h 46 m	Show
The Bucks have cooled off going 9-8 in their last 17 games, including 4-5 on the road, after a 12-1 start. They are off a deflating 105-95 home loss to the Warriors on Friday. That was a season-low in points for Milwaukee and showed the Bucks are not the elite team they were early in the season. The Raptors got caught looking ahead to this matchup gettting upset by the Nets on the road Friday. The Nets nailed the Raptors in a sandwich spot. Toronto had just defeated the 76ers at home and was eagerly awaiting this game. The Raptors have revenge for a 124-109 road loss to the Bucks from Oct. 29 when Kawhi Leonard didn't play. They have the defenders to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo in check.
12-08-18	Nets v. Knicks -3	Top	112-104	Loss	-108	18 h 47 m	Show
The timing of this matchup should work in the Knicks' favor. New York was buried by Boston, 128-100, on the road Thursday. Knicks coach David Fizdale ripped his team following that embarrassment. New York has been playing better lately, though, going 4-4 while covering six of its last nine games. This is a rivalry matchup, but the Nets are in letdown mode after stunning the Raptors, 106-105, in overtime at home Friday night. That win halted an eight-game Brooklyn losing streak. The Nets have really missed Caris LeVert, who was their leading scorer. Until upsetting Toronto, the Nets were 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in their past eight games.
12-07-18	Kings -135 v. Cavs	Top	129-110	Win	100	11 h 32 m	Show
The Kings are one of the more improved teams in the NBA at 12-11. They have young talent and a much improved bench. Sacramento has proven it can take care of business versus lottery teams and play well on the road. ` The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus sub .500 opponents. In their last three road games, the Kings upset the Jazz, lost to the Warriors by one point and buried the Suns by 17 points. The Cavaliers' confidence is way down again after getting smacked, 129-105, by the Warriors at home this past Wednesday. Cleveland is in full rebuild mode now with no more talk of trying to make the playoffs. The Kings have been idle for two days. This is the first of three straight road games for them. They should be ready.
12-05-18	Clippers v. Grizzlies -110	Top	86-96	Win	100	20 h 40 m	Show
The Clippers have not been a team to fade. They own the second-best ATS mark in the NBA covering 15 of their 23 games. But I'm going to do it here because this spot sets up very well for Memphis. The teams just met on Nov. 23. The Clippers halted the Grizzlies' five-game win streak with a 112-107 overtime win in LA. The Grizzlies blew an 8-point lead with two minutes left. The Grizzlies were hurt by Mike Conley fouling out with 2:51 left in regulation. Now Memphis is home - where it is 10-3 ATS the past 13 times - and has short revenge. The Grizzlies also draw the Clippers in action for the fourth time on the road in six days. Memphis, on the other hand, last played on Sunday. The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS the past six times when playing on two days rest.
12-03-18	Wizards -115 v. Knicks	Top	110-107	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
After a 1-7 start, Washington is slowly starting to get back on track going 7-5 in its last 12 games. The Wizards are coming off their best defensive game of the season, beating the Nets, 102-88, on Saturday. That game was at home. The Wizards are 2-9 on the road. Perhaps it's a leap of faith to support the Wizards away from home, but they are better than the Knicks, are in a good spot and have a strong history against New York. The Knicks are in letdown mode after one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 136-134 home overtime win against the Bucks on Saturday. The Wizards have covered eight of the past 10 versus the Knicks. They are 7-1 ATS the past eight times playing at Madison Square Garden. John Wall and Bradley Beal are the two best players on the court. Washington believes it is a playoff team, which it has been the past two seasons. The Knicks are a lottery team. The price is short enough to back the Wizards on the money line. Asking them to flat out just win this game shouldn't be too much.
11-30-18	Bulls +9.5 v. Pistons		88-107	Loss	-105	18 h 32 m	Show
The Pistons must be licking their chops as they host Golden State on Saturday. It's the defending world champions lone visit to Detroit. The Warriors are 3-5 in their last eight games. But first up for the Pistons is hosting the lowly Bulls tonight. It's going to be easy for Detroit to overlook Chicago, which has lost eight of its last nine games, including the last four. The Bulls, though, actually have been playing well and should be up for this division matchup and in revenge mode. The Bulls have been sharp in seven of their last eight quarters losing to the Bucks by three points and to the Spurs by one. The Pistons just nipped the Bulls, 118-116, in the first meeting. Detroit has a losing spread record this season when favored.
11-29-18	Clippers v. Kings +3	Top	133-121	Loss	-110	21 h 47 m	Show
The Clippers are out of the gates fast going 13-6. Sacramento has been a surprise, too, going 10-10 while covering 60 percent of their games. LA is just a .500 team on the road. The two teams are similar in that neither has a superstar, but each has scoring depth. The Kings have six players averaging 11 or more points a game. Buddy Hield and De'Aaron Fox have become of the better backcourt tandems in the league. The Kings entered the middle part of this week ranked seventh in scoring and first in 3-point shooting percentage. There are unique circumstances in this matchup. The spot is ripe for the home underdog Kings. The Clippers played Wednesday night beating the Suns, 115-99, at home. The Kings have been idle since Sunday. This is Sacramento's lone scheduled national TV matchup with the game on TNT. The Kings are not slated to play on ESPN nor ABC this season. So a strong effort should be forthcoming from the Kings with a rare chance to be on the national stage and show off their vast improvement.
11-28-18	Suns v. Clippers OVER 227.5	Top	99-115	Loss	-110	21 h 28 m	Show
It may surprise you to know that the Clippers are the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA. LA doesn't have a superstar. What the Clippers do have are a number of underrated offensive players. This lists includes Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell, who is showing signs of having a breakout season averaging 20.9 points in his past seven games. The Clippers are a below average defensive team. Good offense plus bad defense often spells Over. That's what the Clippers are doing going above the total in eight of their past nine games. The Clippers should have another major scoring game on Wednesday facing the Suns, who entered this week ranked 29th in giving up points per 100 possessions and also were second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Phoenix permitted the Bulls, who were without Larui Markkanen and Kris Dunn, to shoot nearly 60 percent from the floor while scoring 124 points one week ago. But here's the kicker: The Suns commit the most fouls per game in the league. The Clippers are fourth in free throw percentage and were leading the league in free-throw makes.
11-26-18	Magic v. Warriors -8	Top	110-116	Loss	-102	21 h 43 m	Show
It's an added bonus if the Warriors get back Draymond Green back for this game. But if not, the Warriors have the firepower with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, along with a good situational spot, to roll past Orlando. The Magic are coming off a highly satisfying and intense upset of the Lakers beating them 108-104 on Sunday. In their previous road game, the Magic lost to Denver by 25 points. The Warriors should be focused. Not only did they see what happened to the Lakers, but they go on a five-game road trip starting Thursday following this game. The Magic are playing for third time in four days and second in two days. Golden State has dominated the series winning the past 10 meetings against the Magic with eight of the victories occurring by eight or more points.
11-25-18	Jazz -135 v. Kings		133-112	Win	100	8 h 33 m	Show
I'm taking the Jazz here knowing full well that their leading scorer, Donovan Mitchell, won't play because of a bruised rib. The Jazz have been one of the more disappointing teams this season. I realize that, too. But this is short revenge and the Kings are off a hard-played 117-116 road loss to Golden State last night. Utah has won during its past seven visits to Sacramento. The Jazz actually have been settled down in Sacramento before the Kings since they were idle on Saturday. The Kings shot way above their heads making 52.8 percent of their field goals in beating the Jazz, 119-110, this past Wednesday in Salt Lake City. The Kings have made 47.6 percent of their shots from the floor on the season. That is above average. However, they rank last in free throw percentage and are 27th defensively. The Jazz ranked eighth defensively. There is no chance of them taking the Kings lightly.
11-24-18	Rockets -10 v. Cavs		108-117	Loss	-107	10 h 44 m	Show
No brilliant insight here. I just want the Rockets off a loss and the Cavaliers off a victory after both teams played last night. The Rockets lost 116-111 in overtime to the Pistons while the Cavaliers stunned the 76ers, 121-112, on the road. Aside from underrated center, Clint Capela, the Rockets didn't play well, while Cleveland played perhaps its finest game of the season. I'm projecting the Rockets to play much better and the Cavaliers to get back to playing at their level, which is being one of the worst teams in the NBA. After a slow start, the Rockets have gotten back on track. They are 8-3 in their last 11 games. They followed up their previous loss - a 96-89 defeat to the Spurs - by blowing out the Pacers 115-103 in the following game The Rockets have won by 10 or more points during three of their last four victories. Cleveland's previous victory came four games ago when it upset Charlotte, 113-89. The Cavaliers had to play the very next day and were blown out by the Wizards, 119-95. The Rockets have dominated this series even when the Cavaliers had Lebron James winning 10 of the last 12 meetings.
11-23-18	Wolves -125 v. Nets		112-102	Win	100	12 h 1 m	Show
If the Timberwolves are serious about making the playoffs again they can't lose to teams such as the Nets. Minnesota defeated Brooklyn, 120-113, at home 11 days ago. The Timberwolves should be able to beat the Nets again with newcomers Robert Covington and Dario Saric more settled. Minnesota's chemistry should be better, too, with the Jimmy Butler cloud disappeared following his trade to the 76ers. The Nets can't match the Timberwolves' talent level and haven't been a good home club failing to cover in 14 of their last 19 games at Barclays Centers.
11-21-18	Suns v. Bulls -125		116-124	Win	100	21 h 40 m	Show
Phoenix is 0-7 on the road this season. So it's not too much to ask of the Bulls to just win this game. Chicago should produce a strong effort having been idle the past three days. The Bulls have covered 10 of the last 14 times when playing on three or more days rest. The Suns have some young talent, but they don't produce victories. They are 3-13 on the season and have dropped six of their last seven games. Zach LaVine is Chicago's best player. He's expected to return to the lineup after missing the Bulls' last game due to illness. LaVine should be able to take advantage of a Phoenix defense that ranks 29th in field goal percentage.
11-20-18	Nets v. Heat -3	Top	104-92	Loss	-109	19 h 45 m	Show
I don't understand this line. Miami should have opened a much higher home favorite. True the Heat aren't playing well. They are a disappointing 6-10 and have lost five of their last six. But the Nets are 7-10 and have lost four of their last five. Brooklyn just recently lost its best player, Caris LeVert. The teams met just six days ago in Brooklyn. The Heat were a two-point road favorite. Now they open only a three-point home favorite. The Heat won that game,. 120-107. Miami is a frustrated team capable of much better. The Heat have the two best players on the court, Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside. The Nets aren't capable of better. They are not a playoff caliber team. They aren't playing defense either giving up 120 or more points in three of their last four games.
11-19-18	Celtics -125 v. Hornets	Top	112-117	Loss	-125	19 h 31 m	Show
When they set their mind to it, the Celtics can beat any team in the Eastern Conference. They proved that defeating the Raptors, 123-116, this past Friday. But the Celtics were caught flat on Saturday losing 98-86 to the Jazz at home. Brad Stevens wasn't happy with the effort questioning his team's grit. Now, having been idle on Sunday, I see the Celtics getting up to play the Hornets. The Hornets are just an average Eastern Conference team, one that has fallen short of making the playoffs. Boston has far more depth. The question is motivation. The Celtics should have it. They certainly own the talent edge. Boston has dominated the Hornets, too, beating them the past seven times while going 6-0-1 ATS. The Celtics swept three games from the Hornets last season holding them to an average of 94.7 points.
11-18-18	Blazers -117 v. Wizards		119-109	Win	100	6 h 14 m	Show
The Trail Blazers have revenge for 125-124 overtime home loss to the Wizards last month. Portland is the superior team and will be up for this matchup not just for the revenge angle but also having lost two in a row. Portland has reached triple digits in all but one of their first 15 games. The Trail Blazers have the backcourt scoring to take advantage of the Wizards' 29th-ranked defense. Damian Lillard trumps John Wall. Aside from their upset win of the Trail Blazers, the Wizards haven't defeated any foe of distinction. Their victories have been against the Knicks, Heat, Magic and Cavaliers.
11-17-18	Jazz v. Celtics UNDER 208.5		98-86	Win	100	10 h 43 m	Show
The Celtics got past Toronto, 123-116 in overtime, last night. The Celtics should not be in a letdown mode facing the Jazz, who beat them 123-115 eight days ago in Salt Lake City. Boston will look to clamp down defensively. The Jazz shot an unsustaniable 55.8 percent from the field in that victory. The Celtics did not defend well in that game. Boston also won't be looking to play up-tempo in the second of back-to-back games. The Jazz only scored 68 points in a road game two games ago against the Mavericks. Utah's offense needs Donovan Mitchell to have big performances. Mitchell, though, is in a slump shooting just 33.3 percent in his last four games while committing 12 turnovers. The Celtics rank No. 1 in 3-point defense and third overall in points given up. Look for a complete reversal from the heavy scoring that was done in the first matchup as the Jazz have to rely on their top-10 defense to hang in.
11-16-18	Bulls +14.5 v. Bucks		104-123	Loss	-102	10 h 8 m	Show
You might be interested to know that the highest-scoring player on the court in this game belongs to the Bulls in Zach LaVine. But that's not why I like the Bulls to cover this game. This is a rare nationally televised appearance for the Bulls. They are coming off an embarrassing 111-82 road loss to the Celtics on Wednesday. Chicago gets up for this division rivalry moreso than the Bucks do. So I envision a focused and big effort coming from the Bulls. The Bulls have covered in four of their last five visits to Milwaukee, including the past three. Before the Boston massacre, the Bulls were playing solid defense holding four of their past five foes to 103 points or fewer.
11-15-18	Spurs +5.5 v. Clippers		111-116	Win	100	22 h 2 m	Show
Perhaps it's a leap of faith, but I see the Spurs showing up in a big way. San Antonio is in full circle the wagons mode having lost four of its last five games. The Spurs were just embarrassed on the road Wednesday getting blown out by the Suns, 116-96. Good teams beat the Suns by 20 points not the other way around. I don't see Gregg Popovich letting his team get humiliated a second straight night especially with this game being televised nationally on TNT. There is no valid excuse for any team losing by 20 points to the Suns - and that includes the Washington Generals. But the Spurs did rest Rudy Gay and Pau Gasol was out. It's a plus if Gasol is able to play. I will take LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan and Gay against the Clippers' top three players. The Clippers are fat and happy by contrast compared to the Spurs. LA is off overtime victories against the Bucks and Warriors. The Clippers have played their past four games without their two best defenders, Avery Bradley and Luc Mbah a Moute. During this span, the Clippers rank 22nd in points given up per 100 possessions. Before those two injuries, the Clippers were fifth in that important defensive category. There's a due factor waiting to kick in against the Clippers - and I say it comes here.
11-14-18	Heat -124 v. Nets	Top	120-107	Win	100	17 h 60 m	Show
It should not be too much to ask of Miami to beat Brooklyn especially with the Nets now without Caris LeVert, who is their scoring and steals leader. The Nets have to be in a shocked and down mood after LeVert suffered a gruesome foot injury in the Nets' last game two days ago. The Heat have the three best players on the court in Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson and Goran Dragic. Miami isn't going to lack motivation taking to the road after suffering their third consecutive loss - all at home. The Nets have failed to cover in 12 of their last 17 home games. They also are 4-10-1 ATS in their past 15 matchups against the Heat.
11-13-18	Hornets v. Cavs +8.5		89-113	Win	100	7 h 19 m	Show
It seems almost unfair given how bad they are without LeBron James. But the Cavaliers have been one of the hardest hit team by injuries so far this NBA season. Still, I expect the Cavaliers to give an all-out effort here and keep this game close. Cleveland was embarrassed by Charlotte, 126-94, just 10 days ago. That was at Charlotte. Now the Cavaliers get quick revenge. They have beaten the Hornets the past seven times at home although that was with James. Still, it could be a mental barrier against the Hornets. Charlotte is in action for the third time in five days. The Hornets lost in overtime to the 76ers and then beat the Pistons, 113-103, as 2 1/2-point road chalk. I see this as a flat spot for the Hornets, who while certainly a level higher than Cleveland, are not the type of dominant team that can cover huge spreads on the road. The Cavaliers have veterans. They are not happy with only one win this season. Cleveland has played better of late. Since getting blown out by Charlotte, Cleveland lost by two points on the road to Orlando and by one point on the road to the Bulls in their last game this past Saturday.
11-12-18	Warriors -130 v. Clippers		116-121	Loss	-130	12 h 52 m	Show
No Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. So we have a very short line here. No worries. The Warriors still have a star-studded lineup with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson being the two best players on the court and a very strong bench. Quinn Cook has done a fine job filling-in for Curry. Sparked by Cook, the Warrors buried the Nets, 116-100, on Saturday. Golden State has defeated the Clippers 13 of the last 14 times. The Warriors are even more focused minus Curry and Green. I'll back them at this small number.
11-12-18	Jazz -3 v. Grizzlies	Top	96-88	Win	100	10 h 6 m	Show
The Jazz already have double revenge against the Grizzlies. They are 0-2 versus Memphis this season with both losses occurring in Salt Lake City. Utah was missing Donovan Mitchell in one those losses. Mitchell is healthy now and the Jazz are playing better. The Grizzlies are improved this season. But they are not in Utah's class. The Grizzlies have fed on a bunch of bad teams at home beating the Hawks, Suns and Wizards. Memphis is coming off a 112-106 home overtime victory against the 76ers. The Grizzlies caught the 76ers in the second of back-to-back games following Philadelphia's home overtime win against the Hornets. The 76ers ran out of gas in that game.
11-11-18	Bucks v. Nuggets -3		121-114	Loss	-106	16 h 17 m	Show
The Bucks and Nuggets have been two of the hottest teams in the NBA each opening 9-3. The timing and spot, though, favor the Nuggets here. Denver catches Milwaukee at the conclusion of a four-game, six-day road swing. Making this fatigue rating higher for the Bucks is they lost 128-126 in overtime to the Clippers on Saturday falling on a Lou Williams basket with 0.3 seconds left. The Bucks exerted a lot of energy both physical and emotional into that game coming from 15 points down. The Nuggets should be fired-up and ready after they were upset by the lowly Nets, 112-110, at home on Friday. Denver was 6-0 at Pepsi Center until that shocking loss. Denver has defeated Milwaukee eight consecutive times at home. The Bucks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games going back to last season.
11-10-18	Nets v. Warriors -7	Top	100-116	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
Even without injured Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, Golden State is strong enough to dispatch the Nets by double-digits at home especially given the circumstances. The Warriors are far the superior team and probably have the best bench in the league. The Warriors are in bounce back mode after their eight-game win streak was snapped by the Bucks on Thursday in an embarrassing 23-point home loss. The Nets are off a dramatic 112-110 road win against the Nuggets last night, winning when Caris LeVert hit a shot with 0.3 seconds left. The Nets can be a pesky 'dog on the road - but not when a vastly better foe takes them serious. That will be the case here.
11-10-18	76ers v. Grizzlies -127		106-112	Win	100	9 h 6 m	Show
The Grizzlies are much better this season with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley healthy plus having a stronger bench. The Grizzlies are 4-0 SU and ATS at home. They've been idle the past couple of days after knocking off the red-hot Nuggets at home. The spot sets up well for the Grizzlies as they catch the 76ers off a draining overtime home victory against the Hornets last night and playing for the third time in four days. JJ Redick logged more than 36 minutes while Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Dario Saric all played more than 39 minutes. The 76ers have failed to cover in eight of their last nine road contests going back to last season while the Grizzlies are on a streak of seven straight home covers.
11-09-18	Hornets v. 76ers -5.5		132-133	Loss	-115	8 h 31 m	Show
The 76ers are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS at home. This is their lone home game during a six-game span. So Philadelphia should not lack motivation. They draw Charlotte in a fat and happy mood. The Hornets just posted home victories - against the lowly Cavaliers and Hawks. This is the Hornets' first road game since Oct. 27, when they lost 105-103 to the 76ers. Philadelphia nipped the Hornets. This return matchup should not be as close. The 76ers shot just 38.5 percent from the field in that victory. Dario Saric, a key and underrated player for the 76ers, has elevated his game since then after a slow start. The Hornets may be minus their best defensive player, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He's questionable with a finger injury. The 76ers have played a tough early schedule. Their won/lost record is skewed by road losses to the three best teams in the Eastern Conference right now - Raptors, Bucks and Celtics. The 76ers are coming off a confidence-building 100-94 road win against the Pacers in which Saric had his best performance of the season. Philadelphia has defeated Charlotte seven times in a row, including the past four at home.
11-07-18	Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4	Top	87-89	Win	100	9 h 41 m	Show
The last time the Nuggets blasted out of the blocks this well was 1976. They are 9-1. But this is a spot to step in against them. Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS at home. All of its home victories are by 12 or more points. The Grizzlies have covered in their last six home games going back to last season. FedEx Forum is a strong home-court for Memphis. The Grizzlies are in stop-the-pain mode after losing the final two games of their road trip with the last occurring to the Warriors two days ago. Memphis is much improved from last season with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley healthy and having a deeper bench. Denver is in a letdown spot after a huge home victory against the Celtics on Monday. The Nuggets are not that strong away from Pepsi Center going 1-2 ATS during their past three away matchups. Denver also has bad recent track record versus Southwest Division foes going 0-6 ATS against them.
11-06-18	Nets v. Suns +1	Top	104-82	Loss	-106	21 h 53 m	Show
Can the Suns win two in a row? Yes. Phoenix is a different team when Devin Booker is healthy like he is now. The Suns upset the Grizzlies at home this past Sunday. It was Booker's second game back after he missed three games with a hamstring injury. That win halted a seven-game Phoenix losing streak and has given the Suns confidence. Booker was the key. He is one of the best players in the league although he doesn't get a lot of publicity. Phoenix will have the two best players on the court in Booker and rookie Deandre Ayton when they host Brooklyn Tuesday. The Nets are 1-4 on the road. Their lone away win was against the Cavaliers, who have the worst record in the NBA at 1-9. The Nets last were on the road eight days ago when they were blasted by the Knicks, 115-96.
11-04-18	Grizzlies v. Suns +4		100-102	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
Phoenix has lost seven in a row since beating Dallas by 21 points in its opener. So I understand a reluctance to back the Suns. But Memphis is vulnerable here and the Suns are dangerous at home with Devin Booker back for his second game after being out three games with a hamstring injury. The Suns were competitive with Booker's return to the lineup in a 107-98 home loss to the Raptors Friday. The Raptors are far superior to the Grizzlies. Memphis is 0-2 on the road in games not against the Jazz. The Grizzlies lost by five points to the Kings in Sacramento and were buried by 28 points to the Pacers in Indiana. Memphis averages 94.2 points in four road matchups. The Grizzlies are coming off a highly-satisfying 110-100 away victory against the Jazz on Friday. Memphis has a road game against the Warriors on deck Monday. The Grizzlies are likely to look past the Suns, who they destroyed, 117-96, at home on Oct. 27. The Grizzlies shot 55.7 percent from the floor in that win. Booker did not play in that game. Memphis ranks 20th in field goal percentage at 44.5 percent. They are not likely to repeat that earlier shooting performance against the Suns. The Suns are a far better team with a healthy Booker. He is their key being their leading scorer at 25.8 points and ball distributor. Phoenix has a much improved roster. No. 1 overall draft choice Deandre Ayton is living up to expectations and Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson are reliable veterans who help balance the Suns' promising youth. This is early season revenge for the Suns and a stop-the-pain game for them. They will be the more motivated team and they are better than their record now that Booker is healthy.
11-02-18	Knicks v. Mavs -6		118-106	Loss	-105	19 h 15 m	Show
The record won't show it because of a five-game losing streak, but Dallas is a much improved team. The Mavericks added a premier defensive center, DeAndre Jordan, and a star rookie point guard, Luka Doncic, to a veteran lineup that also has reliable Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews to go along with promising second-year guard Dennis Smith Jr. The Mavericks have played strong competition during their losing skid with four of the defeats coming to the Raptors, Jazz, Spurs and Lakers. Dallas lost to the Spurs in overtime and Lakers by one point during its last two games, both on the road. Now Dallas is home for only the fourth time this season. The Mavericks are not only home, but get to step way down in class, too, drawing the Knicks. The Knicks are 1-6 in their last seven games. They are 0-3 on the road losing their past two away games by a combined 34 points to the Bucks and Heat.
11-02-18	Rockets -3 v. Nets		119-111	Win	100	18 h 15 m	Show
The 1-5 Rockets are on the road for the first time since Oct. 21. Good. They need to get away from Houston. The Rockets are the most disappointing team in the NBA during the first couple of weeks. This is the start of a season-high five-game road trip for the Rockets. I don't see them sinking any lower by losing to the bottom-feeding Nets especially since the Nets are off a satisfying 120-119 overtime victory against the Pistons this past Wednesday night. The Nets are a good effort team. I especially like them as a road 'dog. But they can't match the Rockets' talent even if James Harden remains out. Chris Paul, Eric Gordon and Carmelo Anthony still are better than anybody on Brooklyn. The Rockets aren't nearly as good as their franchise-record 65-win team of a season ago. But they are far better than their 1-5 record shows. Houston ranks 29th in field goal percentage and 23rd in 3-point shooting. They are due to greatly improve in those key statistical areas. Keep in mind, too, the Rockets have faced nothing but Western Conference teams - all of whom are playoff contenders. This is their first game versus an Eastern Conference opponent and a lottery one at that.
11-01-18	Bucks v. Celtics -3		113-117	Win	100	9 h 40 m	Show
Milwaukee is the only remaining unbeaten team in the NBA. It's not a fluke. The Bucks have had below-the-radar talent the past couple of seasons and now they finally have the right coach in Mike Budenholzer to maximize that talent. But Boston trumps Milwaukee in terms of overall talent and bench strength. The Celtics also have the best coach in the league, Brad Stevens. The spot sets up well for Boston, too. The Bucks are coming off a huge home win against the Raptors. This marks their fourth game in six days. It is just Milwaukee's third road game of the season. The Celtics are the best team the Bucks have faced. The Celtics guard their home court well covering 17 of their last 22 home games. They have covered against the Bucks in eight of the last 10 meetings. It's an added bonus for the Celtics if superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has to miss a second consecutive game because of a concussion.
10-31-18	Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks	Top	107-101	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
I see the Pacers bouncing back from a disappointing home loss to the Trail Blazers this past Monday. The Trail Blazers are off to a fast start and they played well against Indiana. The Pacers are a much better team than the rebuilding Knicks, who are 2-5 with their victories coming against the lowly Hawks and Nets. The Pacers entered their matchup against the Trail Blazers having posted road victories against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Victor Oladipo, though, had an off-shooting night against the Trail Blazers after connecting on 17 of 27 shots from the floor against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Indiana has a strong record in bounce back situations like this going 16-5 ATS following a loss. New York is fat and happy after halting a five-game losing streak with a resounding revenge win against the Nets on Monday, 115-96.
10-30-18	Clippers v. Thunder -145		110-128	Win	100	17 h 41 m	Show
The Thunder have had this game circled after losing to the Clippers, 108-92, at home 11 days ago. Oklahoma City was without Russell Westbrook in that game. Westbrook has played in three games now. The rust is off and the Thunder are ready to make a move. They looked good in dispatching the Suns, 117-110, at home this past Sunday. That was the Thunder's first win after opening the season with four consecutive losses. Oklahoma City beat the Clippers in both meetings last season, winning by an average of 8.5 points. Now that Westbrook is back and in sync with Paul George and newcomer Dennis Schroder, the Thunder should start playing better.
10-30-18	Blazers v. Rockets -3	Top	104-85	Loss	-111	17 h 40 m	Show
The Rockets are off to a horrendous 1-4 start after winning an NBA-best 65 games last season. I understand the Rockets have yet to resemble anything they looked like last season and will be without injured James Harden. Still, I believe the Rockets are primed for a monster effort. They have been idle since Friday. Portland, on the other hand, played on Monday night and upset the Pacers in Indiana. This marks Portland's third game in four days. The Trail Blazers do not have great depth and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a victory. Houston has owned Portland in the past winning seven of the last eight meetings, including all four last season.
10-30-18	Kings v. Magic -4		107-99	Loss	-107	16 h 40 m	Show
Yes, laying points with Orlando is a new experience, an experience I rarely want to go through. But it's justified here. The Kings appear improved this season, but they are in a real letdown spot after upsetting the Heat in Miami Monday night for their third straight victory. However, this marks the Kings' fifth game in eight days and second in two nights. Orlando is up and down. But the Magic have the better talent with Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic are capable of good things having already defeated the Heat and Celtics while losing by only one point to the 76ers. Orlando is better coached than in previous seasons and is surrendering eight fewer points per game than the Kings, who rank 27th defensively.
10-29-18	Blazers v. Pacers -3.5	Top	103-93	Loss	-110	12 h 51 m	Show
Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Pacers are playing well having won their last two games - both on the road - in blowout fashion beating the Spurs, 116-96, this past Wednesday and Cavaliers, 119-107, on Saturday. Now the Pacers are home where they are 2-0 this season having destroyed the Grizzlies by 28 points and Nets by 20. Portland is better than those two teams. However, the Trail Blazers are just a borderline playoff team and they carry a fatigue rating playing their third road game in five days. Portland has failed to cover in five of its last six away matchups. They Trail Blazers have a bigger game on deck when they play the Rockets in Houston. The time to play the Pacers is now as I anticipate the line will go up. There's also an outside chance Portland's star point guard Damian Lillard could be out as he's nursing a sore right elbow.
10-28-18	Wizards v. Clippers UNDER 229.5		104-136	Loss	-116	18 h 0 m	Show
The NBA is a very high scoring league so far this season. The Wizards have contributed to that with their last ranked defense. But there are circumstances here that set up an Under play with this very big opening total. Let's start with the Clippers. They rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. That's not a surprise considering how many excellent perimeter defenders they have, including Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. Luc Mbah a Moute is very good, too, but he may not play because of a sore knee. LA is giving up the 10th-fewest points in the league. That's impressive since the Clippers haven't met an Eastern Conference foe yet. The Wizards are their first one. The Clippers have gone against a number of strong Western Conference offenses. Their opponents have been the Nuggets, Thunder, Rockets twice and Pelicans. Western teams play up-tempo and fast. The Wizards are likely to play a a slower pace considering this is their fourth road game in six days. I also expect the Wizards to put a tremendous effort into their defense after John Wall and Bradley Beal spoke out about how selfish and bad the team is defensively. This happened after the Wizards lost 116-112 to the Kings Friday at Sacramento. That dropped Washington to 1-4. So look for the Wizards to use what effort they have left to clamp down on the defensive end.
10-27-18	Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 230.5		106-110	Win	100	17 h 10 m	Show
It takes a brave and foolish person to try to make an Under work this season in the NBA. But I'm going to make the attempt with the Under in this matchup. Yes, I understand these teams just met Monday and the final score was Spurs 143, Lakers 142 in overtime. But this second matchup in five days should result in better defense since the teams just saw each other. Proper defensive adjustments should be forthcoming. The Lakers carry a fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days. So they shouldn't be looking to play racehorse basketball. They actually could be playing more deliberate. Point guard Rajon Rondo returns, too, from suspension. He's still learning his new team and visa versa. The Spurs are coming off a very bad 116-96 home loss to the Pacers this past Wednesday. Gregg Popovich ripped his team for their lack of defense. So I'm expecting a much stronger defensive effort from the prideful Spurs.
10-26-18	Bucks v. Wolves +1.5		125-95	Loss	-100	17 h 26 m	Show
It's a mistake for the Bucks to be favored in this road spot. Yes Milwaukee is 4-0. The Bucks just beat the 76ers, 123-108, at home on Wednesday. Milwaukee is fat and happy. The Timberwolves are a bit more desperate at 2-3. Now look at the spot. The Bucks have been home for the past three games. After this matchup they go back to Milwaukee to host the Magic on Saturday and the Raptors on Monday. Minnesota is 2-0 at home. The Timberwolves' losses have all come on the road to the Spurs, improved Mavericks and Raptors. Jimmy Butler has rounded into shape. The Timberwolves don't play again until Monday. They'll be going all out in this one.
10-26-18	Mavs +11.5 v. Raptors		107-116	Win	100	17 h 57 m	Show
Toronto is riding high opening 5-0. The Raptors, though, have given up triple-digits in all of their games. The Mavericks are much improved from last season with the additions of rookie point guard Luka Doncic and center DeAndre Jordan. Yet Dallas is below-the-radar. The Mavericks are sitting at 2-2. They should be 3-1, though, coming off a disgusting 111-104 road loss to the Hawks in which they blew a 26-point lead. Dallas should come out hard after blowing that game to the Hawks. There's a good chance, too, the Mavericks get Harrison Barnes for the first time this season. He's been out with a hamstring injury. Barnes is an underrated veteran who has averaged close to 20 points each of the last two seasons.
10-24-18	Lakers -140 v. Suns	Top	131-113	Win	100	21 h 42 m	Show
The Lakers are 0-3 and will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo and small forward Brandon Ingram when they play the Suns on the road. I like the Lakers a lot here and because the spread is so short, I can back the Lakers on the money line. Phoenix is an improving team with some young, promising talent. But they are not nearly in the Lakers' class now that LA has LeBron James. The Lakers opened against the Trail Blazers on the road, the Rockets and Spurs, who they lost to in overtime on Monday. Now the Lakers finally get a lottery team opponent. Look for James and the Lakers to play with a great deal of urgency and desperation now, something they may not have done against the lowly Suns if not for their winless record. The Suns went up against the best team in basketball in their last game and were whipped 123-103 on the road by the Warriors Monday night. The Lakers aren't 20 points better than the Suns like the Warriors are, but they are still much superior to Phoenix even minus Rondo and Ingram. The Lakers are a deep team. James not only makes the Lakers a playoff team, but a team that could win several playoff series. James and Lonzo Ball can handle the point guard duties. Lance Stephenson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are a pair of solid pros who can step up when called upon mitigating the loss of Ingram.
10-23-18	Kings +11 v. Nuggets		112-126	Loss	-108	20 h 25 m	Show
Denver is off to a great start going 3-0 for its best beginning in nine years. But don't overlook the Kings. They have covered two of their three games, beat the Thunder by 11 points on the road and are averaging 125.7 points a game. The Nuggets might be a little fat and happy. They also are in a sandwich spot having just upset the defending champion Warriors and have a marquee matchup coming on Thursday against LeBron James and the Lakers. Sacramento has been below the radar on the road since last season. The Kings are 13-6 (68 percent) in their last 19 away matchups. De'Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein and Buddy Hield all look like improved players. Rookie Marvin Bagley III has improved Sacramento's frontline. The Nuggets are going to be without Will Barton for around five weeks after he suffered a hip injury. Barton is arguably the Nuggets' fourth-best player.
10-22-18	Magic +12 v. Celtics	Top	93-90	Win	100	19 h 8 m	Show
The combination of Orlando being an improved up-and-coming team upgraded by a coaching change and the Celtics trying to figure out their right rotations puts me on the Magic. There's a buzz going on in New England right now. It's not about the Celtics at this early juncture of the season. It's about the Patriots and Red Sox being back in the World Series. It is just the fourth game of the season. Brad Stevens is a master coach. But he's trying to figure out all the pieces. Remember the Celtics didn't have Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward during the playoffs. The Celtics have not looked sharp in their previous two games losing on the road to the Raptors and nipping the Knicks, 103-101, as a 9 1/2-point road favorite this past Saturday. The Magic may have their best coach of the past six years with Steve Clifford. He inherits a roster with some young emerging talent with Aaron Gordon and reliable veterans Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic were without these players for much of last season because they often were hurt. Orlando has more inside depth this season with rookie Mo Bamba. Vucevic is coming off a monster game against the 76ers where he had 27 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. Orlando lost that game, 116-115, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog. The Celtics' inside defense is likely to be missing big man Aaron Baynes, who has a hamstring injury. Orlando often is underrated on the road. The Magic are 13-6-1 ATS in their past 20 away matchups for 68 percent.
10-21-18	Hawks v. Cavs -7		133-111	Loss	-102	17 h 2 m	Show
Not much is expected of Cleveland without LeBron James. The Cavaliers have lived up to those low expectations in their first two games going 0-2. Their losses came to the Raptors and Timberwolves - both on the road. The Cavaliers do have some prideful veterans, though, who want to prove they still can be competitive without James. So expect a strong effort from Cleveland in its home opener. The Cavaliers draw the Hawks, who just may be the worst team in the NBA. Atlanta is 0-2 suffering blowout losses to the Knicks (126-107) and to the Grizzlies (131-117). Those two teams are worse than the Raptors and Timberwolves. The Hawks committed an average of 21 1/2 turnovers in those two games and are playing for the third time in five days. There aren't going to be many times I'll be willing to lay mid-size points with the Cavaliers. This is one of those times, though.
10-20-18	Rockets -3 v. Lakers		124-115	Win	100	22 h 49 m	Show
The Lakers aren't ready at this early juncture of the LeBron James LA era to beat the Rockets. This is just the Lakers' second game with James. They lost their opener, 128-119, to Portland. Houston is far better than the Trail Blazers. The Rockets had the best record in the NBA last season at 65-17 and return their key players, including James Harden and Chris Paul. The Rockets are in an angry mood, too, after being embarrassed in their opener. They lost 131-112 to Pelicans at home on Wednesday. The Rockets let the Pelicans shoot 53 percent from the floor and were lethargic. Expect a lot more energy from the Rockets in this nationally televised matchup. The Rockets have beaten the Lakers seven of the past nine times in LA.
10-19-18	Warriors -128 v. Jazz		124-123	Win	100	22 h 39 m	Show
Golden State can beat any team even if not highly motivated. A motivated Golden State team can bury any opponent. Maybe this is a trap. If it is than I am ensnared. Because I don't see the Warriors losing here. The Jazz destroyed the Warriors, 119-79, during the final game of the regular season last year. The Warriors were resting starters since playoff seending already had been locked up for them. But a 40-point loss still is a bad memory and it came at Salt Lake City. This time around the Jazz are going to see all of Golden State's stars. The Warriors weren't that sharp in dispatching Oklahoma City opening night. But Utah wasn't good either in its opener defeating Sacramento, 123-117, on the road. The Jazz allowed the Kings to shoot 51.6 percent. Sacramento could be the worst team in the Western Conference.
10-19-18	Cavs +8.5 v. Wolves		123-131	Win	100	19 h 6 m	Show
The Cavaliers are anxious to prove they aren't a hopeless team without LeBron James. They have a great chance of proving that against the chemistry-challenged Timberwolves. Minnesota looked terrible in preseason giving up more than 123 points per game. The team continues to be distracted by Jimmy Butler wanting out. Butler didn't play in preseason while awaiting a trade that so far hasn't happened. Butler played for the first time in the Timberwolves' opener, a loss to the Spurs, and was noticeably rusty shooting 9-of-23 from the floor. His stamina still isn't there yet. The Cavaliers opened with a 116-104 loss to the Raptors on the road this past Wednesday. Kevin Love is being counted on to be Cleveland's No. 1 scoring option now and he was pressing missing 13 of 18 shots from the floor. He should be more settled down in this game. A plus in that loss for the Cavaliers was the play of small forward Cedi Osman, who scored 17 points and pulled down 10 rebounds.
10-17-18	Nuggets v. Clippers +1.5	Top	107-98	Loss	-105	14 h 21 m	Show
The Clippers are below the radar now that they have no stars left. But what the Clippers have going for them is a chip on their shoulder, strong perimeter defenders and more scoring in the middle. Denver has serious playoff aspirations. The Nuggets couldn't have come closer to making the playoffs last season. But the Nuggets have yet to prove they are improved defensively and can play better on the road. The Nuggets were 15-26 away from Pepsi Center and were last in defensive field goal percentage. The Clippers no longer have DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. What the Clippers do have are lockdown defenders Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley and Luc Mbah a Moute. They also have some underrated scorers in Lou Williams, Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari. LA also is going to get more scoring inside with Marcin Gortat replacing the departed Jordan, whose shooting range was about one foot.
10-16-18	76ers v. Celtics -4.5	Top	87-105	Win	100	22 h 35 m	Show
The Celtics have dominated the 76ers winning 14 of the last 16 regular-season games. Philadelphia has gotten a lot better, but so has Boston. The teams met in the Eastern Conference semifinals and the Celtics won the series in five games. Boston won that series despite not having Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, both of whom are healthy now for the Celtics. Part of why the Celtics have had success against the 76ers is they have the depth and defenders to match up against Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons with Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Aron Baynes and Marcus Morris. The 76ers have an excellent starting lineup, but they lack Boston's bench strength and rely heavily on Embiid and Simmons. The Celtics have the deepest roster in the Eastern Conference and the best coach, Brad Stevens. Philadelphia played its last two preseason games in China on Oct. 5 and Oct. 8. So you wonder if the 76ers have recovered fully from that long journey. The Celtics enter this season having covered 73 percent of their last 19 home games.
06-08-18	Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs	Top	108-85	Win	100	26 h 45 m	Show
You can talk zig-zag and the Cavaliers going all out to salvage at least one game. But this series is a foregone conclusion - and the Cavaliers know it. None of the other 131 teams in NBA history who have fallen behind 3-0 in a playoff series have come back to win. Neither will Cleveland. LeBron James trying to battle four stars - two of whom are superstars - isn't a fair fight. Golden State's talent is so above Cleveland's that the Warriors don't even have to be fully motivated to cover this spread. Golden State proved that in a 110-102 road victory in Game 3 this past Wednesday. The Warriors won and covered despite Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combining to score only 21 points while missing a combined 20 of 27 shots from the floor. It didn't matter because of other reaons such as Kevin Durant being so good, Golden State's better bench and holding a coaching edge. The Cavaliers weren't able to beat the Warriors last year when they had Kyrie Irving and were much better. Durant is a major reason. Golden State is 7-1 against Cleveland in the playoffs since Durant became part of the Warriors. Cleveland lacks the defense, coaching and role players to hang close to Golden State. J.R. Smith has been so brutal that he could get MVP votes - for Golden State. Kyle Korver is just a rumor. No, the Cavaliers don't have it. James can't put forth anymore than what he's doing while the Warriors are capable of better. Even if they aren't, they still hold enough edges to cover.
05-27-18	Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200		87-79	Win	100	20 h 47 m	Show
The two teams have gone Under the total in four of their last five games played in Boston. I see that trend continuing in this Game 7 where defensive intensity is sure to be at its highest. I don't see both teams shooting as well as they did in Game 6 particularly the Celtics, who made 51.4 percent of their field goals. The pace actually was slow that game. There is a fatigue factor here this being Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals following the long season. So neither team is going to be playing up-tempo. It's a huge plus for the Under that Kevin Love has been ruled out. He's a very good scorer, but a weak defender. Even with Love, the Cavaliers only are averaging 86.6 points during their three games at Boston in the series.
05-27-18	Cavs v. Celtics -125	Top	87-79	Loss	-125	20 h 48 m	Show
As great as LeBron James is - and I believe he's the greatest basketball player of all-time - I can't see Cleveland winning this game. Boston is 10-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs. The Celtics have rolled past the Cavaliers in all three of their home playoff games by an average winning margin of 17 points. The Celtics are the stronger defensive team and much better coached. James is facing a fatigue factor and nursing a sore knee. He's not going to have Kevin Love to help him either Love is ruled out and I don't trust any of the Cavaliers besides James to step up. JR Smith is particularly bad. The Celtics have covered 19 of their last 26 home games.
05-26-18	Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212	Top	86-115	Loss	-106	20 h 41 m	Show
I understand that these two powerhouse offenses have combined to score only 192 and 187 points, respectively, during the past two games. Hence now we have the lowest total of the series by far in this Game 6. This low total, though, isn't just dictated by how the previous two games have played out with a slow tempo, but by Chris Paul being out with a hamstring injury. This is the time to go Over and Paul's injury is a big reason why. It was to the Rockets' advantage to slow the pace relying on superstars Paul and James Harden. Paul would hold the ball for long stretches during most possessions either seeking Harden on a pick-and-roll, or taking it to the hoop himself when the 24-second clock was winding down. This type of isolation basketball is what Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni was seeking. It's not going to happen anymore with Paul out. The Rockets are going to have to beat the Warriors by firing up 3-pointers. They have the players to do that with Harden, Eric Gordon, who is playing extremely well, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, P.J. Tucker and Gerald Green. Their style is to fire at will, which they will do without Paul to orchestrate the offense. Harden is way overdue to have a strong shooting game having missed 20 of 23 3-point shots during the last two games. Golden State has dropped two in a row in part because it has been relying too much on Kevin Durant and getting away from its normal ball-sharing, excellent ball movement ways. Look for the Warriors to revert back to their style of game now that they are returning home. They are averaging 115 points during their past five games at Oracle Arena. The Rockets are forced to change their style and it leaves them vulnerable to the Warriors' dominant transition game. The pace should be much faster in this game and the shooting much better.
05-25-18	Celtics +7 v. Cavs		99-109	Loss	-109	11 h 35 m	Show
I understand the home team has won and covered each of the five games so far in this series. But I've believed the Celtics are the better team all along and I'm not going to turn away from them getting this many points. Boston snatched momemtum away from Cleveland winning, 96-83, at home two days ago. The Celtics have the fresher legs being the younger team and are far better coached. So the deeper this series goes the better for Boston. The Celtics beat the Cavaliers by 13 points in Game 5 despite shooting only 36 percent from the floor. Boston won because of outstanding adjustments made by Brad Stevens, one of which was going with a bigger lineup. This resulted in Boston outrebounding Cleveland, 45-39. I don't believe Tyrunn Lue is capable of countering Stevens. The Celtics were a good road team during the regular season. They've had two games now to figure out how to play in Cleveland. They don't have the best player on the court. That's LeBron James of course. But they play better team basketball and James is starting to display signs of fatigue. I'm taking the Celtics here anticipating James will play his normal "A" game. If he doesn't, though, it's an added bonus.
05-24-18	Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 219.5	Top	94-98	Win	100	11 h 13 m	Show
Slower pace, increased intensity, key adjustments by the Rockets and the oddsmaker not lowring the total enough all points to another Under in this Warriors-Rockets Game 5 matchup. The Rockets aren't letting the Warriors get off in transition, which was the case earlier in the series. They are an underrated defensive team - the Under has cashed in 15 of their last 22 home games - and have decreased tempo locking into the Warriors' shooters while milking time off the 24-second clock on offense by trying to isolate either James Harden or Chris Paul. There's a lot of grinding now as these Western Conference Finals now become a best of three with the series tied 2-2. The Warriors managed just 14 assists in Game 4. That was a series low. Golden State may not have Andre Iguodala again. He's still a very good defender, but his offense is missed because of his passing ability. Golden State's offensive flow suffers without him and his absence provides added minutes for defensive-minded players, Kevon Looney, Jordan Bell and Shaun Livingston. The Rockets are at their best when playing with one day's rest, which is the case here. So I see them continuing to play tough defense. The Under has cashed 22 of the last 32 times the Rockets have played on one day's rest.
05-23-18	Cavs v. Celtics +1	Top	83-96	Win	100	18 h 6 m	Show
Wrong opening favorite. I don't care that the Cavaliers have won and covered the past two games in convincing fashion. Those games were in Cleveland. This one is in Boston where the Celtics are 13-1 SU and ATS in its last 14 games at TD Garden. The Celtics are a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs. Cleveland has a losing road mark in the postseason. This includes two losses at Boston earlier in the series by an average of 19 points. Boston has been tough at home all season on a 75 percent covering run during its last 24 home contests. The Celtics have a lot of youthful talent who play more relaxed and under control at TD Garden. The Celtics also figure to get a better break from the officials than they did these past two games in Cleveland. LeBron James has been great as usual in the series, but I don't trust Cleveland's role players especially on the road. Kevin Love is showing signs of fatigue. He may not be 100 percent and J.R. Smith is 8-for-33 shooting from the floor for 24.2 percent.
05-22-18	Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 224.5		95-92	Win	100	19 h 53 m	Show
This is Game 4 of the series. There are no secrets between these two teams. The stars are out in force here. So is the total, though, which is extremely high. There should be plenty of intensity and increased playoff caliber defense. The Under has cashed in nine of the past 13 meetings between these two teams and should have won in Game 1. The Rockets are a below-the-radar Under team going below the total 67 percent of the time during their last 55 games. They have gone Under in six of their past eight away contests. There is the strong possibility Andre Iguodala doesn't play for Golden State. He's a very good defensive player, but he would be missed on offense, too, for his ball movement. Plus his absence would create more minutes for Kevin Looney, Shaun Livingston and Jordan Bell. These are all defensive-minded players with limited offensive games.
05-22-18	Rockets +9 v. Warriors	Top	95-92	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
Are the Warriors really better than the Rockets? I'll take nearly double-digits to find out. This line is inflated based on the Warriors' dominant 126-85 burial of the Rockets this past Sunday. Houston has now lost four times in the postseason after finishing with the best record in the NBA during the regular season at 65-17. The Rockets are 3-0 winning by an average of 20.7 points in each of their next games following a playoff loss. There's more. The Rockets have won 79.5 percent of their games when playing on one day's rest, averaging 115.5 points. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times on the road when playing an opponent with a winning home mark. Golden State, by contrast, is 4-15 ATS the last 19 times playing on one day's rest. The Warriors also have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a straight-up victory. It wouldn't be surprising if the Warriors are a tad bit complacent and overconfident following their dominant performance. Golden State may not have Andre Iguodala either. He's questionable with a bruised knee. Iguodala is an outstanding two-way player, who I consider the Warriors' top role player.
05-21-18	Celtics +7 v. Cavs	Top	102-111	Loss	-110	19 h 26 m	Show
I look for the Celtics to come back strong after getting trounced, 116-86, by the Cavaliers in Game 3 this past Saturday. Boston has won and covered each of the past three times it has lost. The Celtics ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency this season. They are the better defensive team and the better coached team. LeBron James is great. But the rest of the Cavaliers played way over their heads as Cleveland shot 17-of-34 from 3-point range and made 25 of 30 free throws in their Game 3 blowout. Cleveland still is terrible as a home favorite especially in this price range covering just 26 percent the past 31 times when laying 5 1/2 or more points. The Cavaliers are 22-50 ATS when favored this season, including 2-5 in the postseason. Brad Stevens will make the proper adjustments and the Celtics will come out fired-up after being embarrassed. James is the best player, but the Celtics are the better team. I'll take team over individual.
05-19-18	Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs	Top	86-116	Loss	-109	22 h 8 m	Show
Cleveland is in must-win mode down 0-2 in this Eastern Conference final. The problem for the Cavaliers is that aside from LeBron James, they aren't championship caliber. After James, the Celtics have the three best players in Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford. The Celtics also have a monster coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Tyronn Lue. This edge is magnified by the teams having not played since Tuesday. Boston has covered six of the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. James couldn't have played better than he did during Tuesday's Game 2 scoring 42 points, pulling down 10 rebounds and dishing off 12 assists. Still, the Cavaliers lost by 13 points. James had an off-game in Game 1 and the Cavaliers lost by 25 points. The oddsmaker isn't buying the Celtics' domination, though, making the Cavaliers a mid-sized favorte. Some of this thought process entails Cleveland playing harder, smarter and employing better defense. I do believe the Cavaliers will produce an "A" level effort. I think it's a leap of faith, though, to believe Lue can coach against Stevens and a knucklehead like J.R. Smith can come through. The line also is skewed high in Cleveland's favor because the Cavaliers are home now. Boston is 1-4 on the road in the playoffs. The Celtics are playing at a high level. They are not superstar-dependent like the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are going against a well-coach opponent that is playing excellent team basketball. I don't see the Celtics being intimidated, or rolling over, just because of a venue shift. The Celtics have, after all, covered 67 percent of their last 55 road contests. They are 4-0-1 ATS during their past five visits to Cleveland. Cleveland has proven bad at home and as a favorite. The Cavaliers have covered just 30 percent of their last 51 games at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is 4-10 ATS in its 14 overall games and has failed to cover seven of the last nine times when laying points.
05-16-18	Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225	Top	105-127	Loss	-110	13 h 0 m	Show
Those of us who had the Under in Game 1 of this series know we should have cashed instead of either lost or pushed due to the Rockets unnecessary fouling at the end when the outcome already was decided. Under was the right play in the opener and it remains the right play at this current number for Game 2 today. Nothing has changed except the Rockets should be playing more intense and smarter defense after giving up 119 points. The Warriors deserved their point total. They played well in transition, took advantage of Houston's sloppy ballhandling and received a lot of open looks. Houston is capable of playing much better defense. Only five teams allowed fewer points per game than the Rockets during the season. It was a bad break for the Under when Trevor Ariza was limited to less than 24 minutes because of foul trouble. He's a much superior defensive player to his replacements, Ryan Anderson and Gerald Green. The Rockets aren't going to push pace so much. They have too much first-hand respect now for the Warriors' devastating transition game. Golden State put up 18 points just on fast-break points. The Warriors are underrated defensively. Only two teams had a better defensive field goal percentage than the Warriors during the regular season. Draymond Green is one of the top five defensive players in the NBA. He should play smarter, too, knowing he's not going to get calls in Houston. There was no reason for him to get that early technical foul during Game 1 when he purposely bumped into James Harden when Harden was just trying to return up-court. The five stars - Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Harden and Chris Paul - were all hot shooting a combined 52.4 percent from the floor. I don't see all of them being as hot for a second straight game.
05-15-18	Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5	Top	94-107	Loss	-110	24 h 55 m	Show
The Celtics have scored 108 or more points in five of their last seven games, including winning 108-83 in Game 1 this past Sunday. The Celtics prefer to play at a fast tempo being younger and more athletic than the Cavaliers. The Over has cashed in 10 of Boston's past 12 home games. Both teams should have the rust off having been idle for nearly a week until playing on Sunday. A big key to this handicap, though, is the belief that the Cavaliers will shoot better and LeBron James will have a huge offensive performance. T.he Cavaliers missed 22 of 26 shots from 3-point range in shooting just 36 percent from the floor in Game 1. James scored only 15 points while shooting just 5-of-16 from the floor. That was nearly 13 points below his season average. Cleveland has gone Over the last four times it failed to cover. There also were just 33 free throws attempted in Game 1. Look for more fouls to be called in Game 2.
05-14-18	Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225	Top	119-106	Push	0	15 h 14 m	Show
It's easy to just think offense with all the superstars the Warriors and Rockets have. But these teams can play defense, too. Golden State had the third-best defensive field goal percentage in the NBA while the Rockets surrendered the sixth-fewest points and ranked seventh in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. The Warriors held the high-scoring Pelicans, who averaged an NBA third-best 111.7 points per game during the regular season, to only 98 points during their last two games. Both Golden State and Houston haven't played in six days. So there's a rust factor. The Rockets held the Jazz to an average of just 93.6 points during the last three games of their past series. The Under has cashed five of the last six times the Rockets have played on three or more days rest. These teams have had more than ample time to prepare. The intensity and focus levels should be sky high. Clint Capela has stepped up to become a defensive force inside averaging nearly three blocked shots per game in the postseason. The Warriors have two outstanding defenders in Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, who is in a cold streak shooting-wise, are above average defensive players, too.
05-13-18	Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 205	Top	83-108	Win	100	21 h 28 m	Show
Rust factor, day time start and current form all should factor in this game going Under the total. Cleveland hasn't played in six days and the Cavaliers weren't challenged defensively by the Raptors then winning, 128-93.. Boston last played on Wednesday. The Cavaliers have tightened up their defense during the postseason holding foes to 103 points or fewer in seven of their 11 playoff games. The Celtics are all about defense ranking in the top-three in all the major defensive categories. Boston is giving up an average of 98.5 points during its last eight playoff games. The Under has cashed in eight of the last 11 meetings between the two teams in Boston. Matchup-wise, the Celtics have more defensive-minded depth at the wings to throw at LeBron James than last season. The Cavaliers, of course, don't have to worry about Kyrie Irving, who remains out.
05-09-18	76ers v. Celtics +1	Top	112-114	Win	102	13 h 17 m	Show
The 76ers have some outstanding young talent. But they don't have the savvy, experience and coaching to beat the Celtics on the road. Boston leads this series 3-1 by defeating the 76ers by 16 and five points, respectively, at home along with an overtime road win in Game 3. The 76ers staved off elimination by downing the Celtics, 103-92, at home in Game 4 two days ago. The 76ers were sparked by T.J. McConnel, who scored a career-high 19 points after being inserted into the starting lineup. The 76ers were the more motivated and physical team. They also dominated in the paint. I don't see any of these factors standing up again with the teams returning to Boston. Brad Stevens is the sharpest coach in the Eastern Conference, if not all of basketball. He'll have a solid game plan and he has the brains to get the best of 76ers coach Brett Brown with in-game adjustments. The Celtics have proven they can win without Kyrie Irving. They have won and covered 11 of their last 12 home games. The Celtics have a top-three defense. The 76ers' defense is underrated, but it is not as good on the road. Philadelphia has given up an average of 109.3 points during its past six away matchups.
05-07-18	Raptors +6 v. Cavs	Top	93-128	Loss	-110	19 h 51 m	Show
I don't see Dwane Casey letting the Raptors quit here. Yes, Toronto is down 3-0 in the series. No NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a playoff series. But this has been a very competitive series. The Raptors lost by one point in overtime in Game 1 despite never trailing during regulation. Toronto lost by two points in Game 3 at Cleveland when LeBron James hit a basket at the buzzer. The Raptors made only 38 percent of their uncontested shots from the floor during those two defeats. So the looks are there. DeMar DeRozan is due to step up. Even if he doesn't, though, Kyle Lowery is playing well averaging 22 points and eights assists in the series while shooting 50 percent from three-point range. The Raptors have a strong bench. James is playing at a superhuman level. However, he's not getting much help from his teammates. It's been that way during the playoffs and regular season for Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been overpiced all season due to James. That hasn't changed here. Cleveland has covered only 28 percent of the time during the past 53 instances when laying three or more points. They are 0-7 ATS the last seven times as home favorites.
05-06-18	Rockets -5 v. Jazz	Top	100-87	Win	100	15 h 55 m	Show
There's too big of a class difference. Pure and simple. Can the Jazz cover this number? Sure - if they shoot 60 percent from 3-point range, the Rockets are uninspired and some unheralded guy like Joe Ingles has the game of his life. But none of that is likely to happen again like it did in Game 2. What has transpired is Houston is 6-1 ATS this season versus Utah. The Rockets have whipped the Jazz by 21, 11 and 11 points in their three games at Salt Lake City. The Rockets were motivated and on their game this past Friday - unlike in Game 2 - building a 30-point advantage in cruising to a 113-92 win. Nothing has changed. The Rockets have far too many weapons. James Harden is unstoppable. Chris Paul still is a superstar. Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and underrated Clint Capela give the Rockets far more weapons than the Jazz. Utah is heavily reliant upon rookie Donovan Mitchell especially with Ricky Rubio out. Mitchell missed 12 of 16 shots from the floor in Game 3 perhaps feeling the strain of being so heavily counted on. Now there's a chance the Jazz could be without their second-best frontcourt player as Derrick Favors is dealing with a sprained ankle. The Rockets very well could be the best team in basketball. It's not a good matchup for the Jazz, whose defensive strength is inside with rim protector Rudy Gobert not defending against 3-point shooters. Utah ranked 17th in defensive 3-point percentage. The Rockets already have 20 more free throw attempts than Utah and set an NBA record for most 3-point shots attempted.
05-05-18	Raptors +5 v. Cavs	Top	103-105	Win	100	15 h 29 m	Show
It doesn't matter that the Raptors entered the playoffs with the best record in the Eastern Conference and were the lone NBA team to rank in the top-five both offensively and defensively. All that matters now is the Raptors are in do-or-die mode down 0-2 in this series and on the road. But should it matter? I think it should count for something. True, the Raptors have yet to prove they can win in Cleveland. Toronto, though, has improved each season. The Raptors are to the point where they can legitimately win the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The talent and coaching are there. So I'm going to back them here. The Cavaliers are in danger of a letdown after winning the first two games of this series on the road, including stealing Game 1. There shouldn't be any doubt about the Raptors' intensity for this matchup. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery are star players. They're due to play more consistent. Certainly Serge Ibaka is due to play much, much better. He isn't the player he once was, but I don't believe he's washed up either. Dwane Casey rates a major coaching edge on Tyronn Lue. I'm confident Casey will get the most from his team in this game and make proper adjustments. He has the talent and bench to do this. People would be looking at this series different if the Raptors had at least split at home. They never trailed during regulation in the opening game of this series yet lost by one point in overtime. Then James had a monster performance in Game 2 with 43 points. Kevin Love played well, too. Toronto got mentally down. It's hard to believe even James can top his great Game 2 performance and Love can't be trusted to play well. The Raptors can't afford to get down here - and they know it. Cleveland is not a dominant home team. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last six games at Quicken Loans Arena. They have either lost, or won by fewer than five points during these past six home games.
05-04-18	Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz	Top	113-92	Win	100	15 h 12 m	Show
Do you believe in the Jazz? I don't. Not against the Rockets. Oh, Houston, at least has to show up. It can't just take the fesity Jazz for granted. That's something the Rockets did early in their Game 2 matchup against Utah. Houston couldn't recover from falling 19 points down during a flat performance and lost, 116-108. Utah also shot 60 percent from 3-point range making 15 of 25 shots from beyond the arc. Now the series shifts to Salt Lake City - and the spread becomes much shorter. I see the Rockets regaining their intensity. The alarm clock has sounded. It's wake-up time. That's enough to cover this number because Houston is a much better team. The Rockets had covered the past five games against the Jazz until the last matchup. Houston is 2-0 at Utah this season winning those games by an average of 11 points. The Jazz aren't hitting 60 percent of their 3-point shots again. They ranked 12th during the regular season in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.6 percent. The Rockets set a record for most 3-point shots taken during the season. The Rockets were above average in 3-point shooting percentage and ranked seventh in 3-point defense while the Jazz are 17th in 3-point percentage defense. Look for things to get back to normal with the Rockets winning and covering this Game 3.
05-03-18	76ers v. Celtics UNDER 206.5	Top	103-108	Loss	-110	20 h 26 m	Show
It's not surprising Boston has one of the three best defenses in the NBA. But did you know the 76ers ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and second in defensive 3-point percentage? Yes, it's true. So why did the Celtics bury the 76ers, 117-101, in Game 1 of this series? The 76ers were tight and their lack of playoff experience - first time in the postseason since 2012 - really showed. The Celtics also were mind-bogging hot making 17 of 35 3-point shots and sinking 18 of 19 free throws. Both coaches are stressing defense for this game. I believe them. Boston is down Kyrie Irving. The Celtics aren't likely to have Jaylen Brown either. He's doubtful with a hamstring injury that caused him to miss Game 1. No other Celtic averaged more than 14 points a game than those two. I see the 76ers making a stronger commitment defensively and the law of averages catching up fast to Boston in this game. The Celtics aren't going to shoot better than 48 percent from the floor like they did in Game 1 without Irving and Brown, who if he does play will be severely impacted. The Celtics, though, have the savvy and the super coaching of Brad Stevens to keep the 76ers' youthful talent frustrated and bottled-up.
04-29-18	Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs	Top	101-105	Win	100	9 h 20 m	Show
Maybe it's preordained that the Cavaliers and LeBron James win this Game 7 being at home. But I certainly have to take these points to find that out. It has been obvious all season, even with turning the roster over at the trade deadline, that aside from James the Cavaliers have problems. They just aren't that good especially when laying points. Only twice in their last 13 games have the Cavaliers defeated a foe by six or more points. The Pacers have outscored the Cavaliers by 50 points in this series. The Pacers went 3-1 during the regular season against the Cavaliers. Cleveland's three victories in this series have been by an average of 3.3 points. The Cavaliers haven't defeated the Pacers by more than four points during the series. Maybe the pressure gets to the Pacers. But I don't see it. The Cavaliers are a one-man team. James is getting no help. Kevin Love, bothered by a thumb injury, is shooting 32.4 percent in the series He's more a liability than a help. James and Love are the only Cleveland players even averaging double figures in the series for Cleveland. Indiana has been underrated all season. Victor Oladipo has become a legitimate star. Myles Turner gives Indiana the best big man. The Pacers hold a bench edge. Domantas Sabonis has been stepping up big. He's on fire making 26 of 35 field goals during the last three games. Lance Stephenson is an annual hindrance to James. Again, this isn't some dominant Cavaliers team. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven games. They aren't a strong home team either covering just 30 percent of their last 54 home games. The Pacers have proven themselves against this caliber of opponent going 9-1 ATS the past 10 times on the road when meeting a foe with a winning percentage greater than .600. Indiana also has covered in seven of their last eight visits to Quicken Loans Arena.
04-27-18	Raptors +2.5 v. Wizards	Top	102-92	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
I'm always attracted to taking the better team when they are getting points. That's the case with this opening number. It's close to a double-digit difference from the last game two days ago when the Raptors were seven-point home favorites. True, the Raptors have yet to win in Washington having gone 0-2 against the Wizards on the road during this series. But I don't see them losing three consecutive away playoff matchups to the Wizards. I like the adjustments Raptors coach Dwane Casey made in Game 5 when the Raptors whipped the Wizards by 10 points. Slow down the Wizards in transition and you'll likely win. The Raptors can do this. The Wizards need big scoring games from Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. to complement John Wall. Porter, however, may not play because of a leg injury. His shooting has been off because of the injury. I trust Casey, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowery and Serge Ibaka more than Scott Brooks, Wall and Co.
04-26-18	Celtics v. Bucks -4.5		86-97	Win	100	11 h 15 m	Show
Take away Kyrie Irving and the Bucks have more talent than Boston. So this series has been about the Bucks' superior talent level versus the huge coaching mismatch between Brad Stevens and interim coach Joe Prunty. There has been a classic zig-zag feel to the series, too, with each team winning at home through the first five games. Now it's Milwaukee's turn to hold serve. The Bucks defeated the Celtics by 24 points in Game 3 at home and led by 20 points at home in Game 4 before only winning by two. So the Bucks definitely are capable of covering this number versus this opponent. Minus Irving, the Celtics take a backseat to the Bucks' starters - Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon. Now, though, the Bucks are getting key bench contributions from Jabari Parker and Thon Maker. Boston beat the Bucks, 92-87, this past Tuesday at home in Game 5. The Bucks shot only 36.8 percent from the floor and had 12 fewer free throw attempts than the Celtics. Yet they still hung in. The Bucks should shoot much better - they ranked No. 3 in the league in field goal percentage during the regular season at 47.8 percent - and get to the free throw more being at home and being strong in the paint. This is the Bucks' game to win - and I see them doing that.
04-25-18	Wizards v. Raptors -7		98-108	Win	100	16 h 50 m	Show
John Wall is healthy and dangerous. But I see the Raptors controlling Wall and solidly beating the Wizards. Washington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. That includes the Wizards failing to cover in their first two games at Toronto during this series, losing by eight and 11 points. The Raptors are 36-7 at Air Canada Centre. The Wizards hold a losing road mark. The Raptors could have swept this series already if they didn't blow two leads at Washington in Games 3 and 4. Toronto believes it is the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors very well could be. They have to prove it, though, by solidly winning this game. I see the Raptors putting forth a tremendous effort, playing much better than they did in Washington. Wall helped even the series by burning the Raptors repeatedly in transition. Look for the Raptors to cut back on their turnovers and to slow down Wall with their secret weapon, Pascal Siakam. He's a defensive ace whose minutes should go up. The Wizards are decent but nothing special. They are not in the Raptors' class. Toronto hurt itself with turnovers. I expect the Raptors to play smarter and better at home. If that happens, the Raptors should win by double-digits.
04-25-18	Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs		95-98	Win	100	16 h 49 m	Show
Simply put, it's too many points for Cleveland to lay. The series is tied 2-2. Cleveland's wins have been by three and four points. Only twice in their last 11 games have the Cavaliers beaten any team by more than six points. Indiana has been underrated all season. The Pacers are a tough out. They're getting contributions from their entire rotation. The same can't be said for the Cavaliers. Only LeBron James can be counted on. George Hill is questionable after missing Game 4 with back spasms. I don't think there's ever been a game in which George Hill wasn't questionable. Kevin Love is dealing with a thumb injury that has affected his shooting. He's missed 30 of 47 shots in the series and committed 11 turnovers. The Pacers are mad they let Game 4 slip away especially being home. But they are 6-0 ATS following a loss and 6-1 ATS in their last road games when taking on an opponent with an above .500 home mark. Indiana also has covered in six of its last seven visits to Cleveland. The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when playing on two day's rest. Some of that I attribute to Tyronn Lue, who I regard as the worst coach in the playoffs.
04-24-18	Spurs v. Warriors -11		91-99	Loss	-105	19 h 53 m	Show
Down 3-0 in the series, San Antonio saved faced with a 103-90 home win against Golden State this past Sunday. Now the Warriors return home knowing they need to end this series now with the Pelicans already waiting in the wings having swept the Trail Blazers in their first-round playoff series. The Spurs don't have it this year. Kawhi Leonard was a no-show. There's too much age and the great Gregg Popovich is in mourning following the death of his wife last week. Assistant Ettore Messina will coach the Spurs in this game with Popovich away. A combination of the Spurs being exceedingly hot from long range - 15 of 28 3-pointers - and the Warriors playing flat resulted in the Spurs' first win of the series. It's going to be their only win, too, as I see the Warriors definitely closing out things here. The major question, of course, is will they win by enough points to cover this double-digit spread? Steve Kerr and the Warriors have too much respect for the Spurs. They won't fool around. They certainly have the talent to bury the Spurs. They had leads of 19 or more points during the first three games of this series in winning by 21, 15 and 13 points, respectively. San Antonio has failed to cover in its last nine away games.
04-24-18	Bucks v. Celtics -150	Top	87-92	Win	100	16 h 40 m	Show
Having home-court and a monster coaching edge trump Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those are two reasons why I like Boston here. But they are not the only reasons. I don't trust the Bucks' bench, nor do I believe the Bucks can keep up their hot shooting especially from 3-point range. The Celtics finished the regular season giving up the third-fewest points per game. They ranked No. 1 in 3-point defense holding foes to 33.9 percent from beyond the arc. The Bucks, though, are hitting 43.6 percent of their 3-point shots, which is the best of any team in the playoffs. The Bucks ranked 22nd in the league in 3-point shooting during the regular season at 35.5 percent. Boston's defense could get an added boost if Marcus Smart is able to play. He's been out with a thumb injury. The Celtics have won 29 of 43 games at home this season. The Bucks are five games under .500 on the road. The Bucks nearly choked away a 20-point lead at home this past Sunday before winning by two. Milwaukee is 5-11 ATS following a victory.
04-23-18	Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves	Top	119-100	Win	100	13 h 53 m	Show
The Timberwolves aren't nearly in the same class as the Rockets. They were destroyed in the first two games of this series, but then won Game 3 at home. That was Minnesota's first home playoff game since 2004. The crowd and team were super fired-up. I don't see that continuing. The Rockets had their one bad game of the series. I doubut Houston is flat for a second consecutive game. I also don't see the Timberwolves being able to match last game's fever intensity. That was a special game and the Timberwolves shot out of their minds connecting on 15 of 27 three-point shots. Minnesota normally doesn't launch that many 3-pointers, or play quality defense like it did in Game 3. Ryan Anderson is back for Houston giving the Rockets another sharpshooter to go with James Harden, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza. The Timberwolves haven't matched up well to the Rockets. Minnesota has lost to the Rockets in 20 of the past 23 meetings even with its Game 3 win.
04-22-18	Cavs +1 v. Pacers	Top	104-100	Win	100	26 h 42 m	Show
Never has a LeBron James-led NBA team been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. But if the Cavaliers don't win this game, that's likely to happen as Indiana leads this best-of-seven series, 2-1. The Pacers stole a game the Cavaliers should have won coming from 17 points down to nip Cleveland, 92-90, this past Friday at home. This is the time to back the Cavaliers, though, when most everybody is down on them and they are near to be counted out. Cleveland has been playing strong defense. Open shots were there for the Cavaliers in the third quarter that would have stifled the Pacers' comeback. Cleveland just couldn't hit them. I believe in James. I believe the Cavaliers have made huge strides defensively. I believe they have put themselves into serious contention to win the Eastern Conference playoffs by getting more athletic at the trade deadline acquiring Larry Nance Jr., Rodney Hood, George Hill and Jordan Clarkson. The Cavaliers are used to this type of pressure. This is something new for the Pacers. James is the greatest player of his era and he's having one of his greatest seasons. I don't see it ending with a first-round loss to the Pacers, who are good but far from elite. Cleveland is going all out here. The Cavaliers have everything to prove after their Game 3 slip-up. It's unlikely James remains in Cleveland if the Cavaliers lose this first-round playoff series.
04-21-18	Rockets v. Wolves OVER 214	Top	105-121	Win	100	13 h 36 m	Show
The first two games of this series - both at Houston - have gone Under the total. There is a lot of zigging and zagging in the NBA playoffs not just with point spreads, but also with totals. This is the time for an Over to occur in this series. There is a law of averages and due factor that should kick in. The Rockets, for instance, scored 102 points in Game 2 with James Harden limited to only 12 points. Houston has made barely 29 percent of its 3-point shots in the series when it averaged 36.2 percent from 3-point range during the regular season. This is enormous because the Rockets fire up more shots from beyond the arc than any team. The Timberwolves are shooting 38.8 percent from the floor in the series. They had the fourth-highest field goal percentage in the NBA during the regular season at 47.6 percent. Karl-Anthony Towns is having a horrible series shooting 5-of-18 from the field after finishing the regular season converting 54.5 percent of his field goals. But it's not just the due factor and a natural correction being in order. The Timberwolves have played way too conservative. Now that they're home - making their first home playoff appearance since 2004 - they are going to play more up-tempo and fast. That's their best chance to beat the Rockets. Minnesota wins with offense not defense. Jimmy Butler is an outstanding two-way player. However, Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford are far more offensive-minded players. They are scorers first, not defenders. Huge crowd support should push the Timberwolves into a frantic pace. Minnesota catches a break, too, as the Rockets are without their best defensive player, injured Luc Mbah Moute. I'm looking for the Rockets to score more points, too. They were the No. 2 scoring team in the league and averaged 122.7 points in their four regular-season meetings with the Timberwolves, who ranked 29th in defensive field goal percentage.
04-20-18	Celtics v. Bucks OVER 205		92-116	Win	100	7 h 42 m	Show
The linesmaker has overcompensated for the Celtics missing Kyrie Irving. Boston has gone Over the past six games. The Celtics have produced triple digits in each of their last six games and are averaging 109.5 points in regulation during the first two games of the series. The Bucks are having problems defending Terry Rozier and Jayson Tatum. The Bucks aren't a good defensive team allowing triple digits in 19 of their last 20 games. They've allowed 113 or more points in six of their past nine games. Milwaukee has the offense, though, to put up a lot of points especially since Eric Bledsoe and Jabari Parker have been quiet. They're due and the Bucks are home, where they have scored triple digits in seven straight games. The Celtics are down one of their best defensive players with Marcus Smart out. The Over has cashed in 11 of the Bucks' past 12 Eastern Conference games.
04-19-18	Blazers +3.5 v. Pelicans	Top	102-119	Loss	-105	17 h 13 m	Show
Just six days ago, Portland was considered to be superior to New Orleans. Now, two games later, the Pelicans are up 2-0 in their Western Conference playoff series and Portland is a road 'dog in do-or-die mode. Is it time to close the book on the Trail Blazers? Perhaps. But I do believe Damian Lillard is due for a turnabout and the Trail Blazers will let everything hang here. The Pelicans are going to take the Trail Blazers' best punch. Lillard has made just 13 of 41 shots from the floor for 31.7 percent in the series. He's much better than that. C.J. McCollum is due to play better, too. Portland should fare better as the hunter rather than the hunted. The Trail Blazers have covered six of the last eight times they've been underdogs. They have covered 56 percent of their road games this season. New Orleans has a decent, but not great home court advantage. The Pelicans have a losing ATS mark at Smoothie King Center. I find Portland's Terry Stotts to be an underrated coach. He's going to make adjustments and tweaks in this Game 3, including probably putting Moe Harkless into the starting lineup. Harkless could be Portland's secret weapon. He had been out the past 10 games due to injury before returning in Game 2. Harkless had a Portland-best plus 10 during his court time in Game 2. The Trail Blazers entered the playoffs 13-3 ATS the last 16 times Harkless has played.