The Kings are a much better team with DeMarcus Cousins in the lineup. Cousins is back after missing four games. 
Sacramento is just 1-7, but has played a murderous schedule. The Lakers were the only easy opponent the Kings have had so far. 
The Kings should be fired up after an emotional team meeting on Tuesday. They draw a Pistons squad playing their third road game in four days and fourth road game in six days. 
Andre Drummond and point guard Reggie Jackson are the Pistons' key players. Drummond is off to a monster start, but can be neutralized by Cousins. Jackson is dealing with a bruised thigh. The Pistons are short-handed at point guard behind Jackson with Brandon Jennings out. 
Detroit has been a nice early-season surprise going 5-2, but the Kings have better talent than perceived and are in a favorable spot and situation. 

The Bucks are without Michael Carter-Williams and O.J. Mayo. They also will be missing Jabari Parker, who is sitting this game out after playing last night. 
Milwaukee is struggling and has lost by 8 or more points during each of its last four visits to Denver.
The Bucks not only have been playing terrible defense, but scoring just 91.8 points a game during their last four games while shooting 42.4 percent. 
The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games versus Western Conference foes. 
The Nuggets beat Portland at home two nights ago in their last game. The Nuggets also own a blowout victory against the Rockets, so they are capable. 

This is the home game the Mavericks have had circled ever since DeAndre Jordan backed out of his word to come to Dallas. After Jordan verbally agreed to sign with the Mavericks in free agency, various Clippers personnel came to his home and convinced him to change his mind. 
The Mavericks did not take kindly to this dirty pool. 
Dallas is down this year. The Mavericks are not in the Clippers' class. They are borderline playoff team at best. But they will be going all out in this matchup. 
The Mavericks played their entire 13-man roster last night in a 120-105 road loss to the Pelicans. The Mavericks were never in that game. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle sacrificed that game to set up this spot. No Dallas starter logged more than 23 minutes last night. 
The Clippers aren't going to be taking this game as serious as Dallas is especially after whipping the Mavericks, 104-88, in LA on Oct. 29. The Mavericks shot just 36.1 percent from the floor in that game and didn't have Chandler Parsons, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews. All three veterans will be on the floor tonight. 
That was a rough game with four technical fouls called along with a number of hard fouls. Jordan is the worst free throw shooter in the NBA making only 34 percent of his free throws. Jordan is likely to go to the foul line a lot. 
Chris Paul isn't 100 percent due to a sore groin. The Clippers defeated the Grizzlies two days ago. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day's rest. They also have a division road game on Thursday night against the Suns. That's a bigger game for them. It's also my Game of the Week! 

Desperate, revenge, overdue. Any of those words fit the Pelicans' situation for tonight. 

New Orleans is 0-6. It's the Pelicans' worst start in 11 years. Now New Orleans hosts Dallas. The Pelicans just lost 107-98 to the Mavericks in Dallas this past Saturday. It's a short turnabout revenge spot. 

The Pelicans were missing Jrue Holiday, who is working his way back from a leg injury. He should play today. New Orleans has too much talent to stay winless with Anthony Davis, Holiday, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson. Davis is unquestionably the best big man in the game averaging 25.2 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.8 blocks.

The Mavericks are in similar to the Pelicans in that some of their key veterans are rounding into shape coming back from injuries. They had a lot of players miss training camp and being on minutes restrictions. It's taking time for the Mavericks, with a bunch of new faces, to get acclimated. 

Dallas is down this season. The Mavericks are not the playoff caliber squad of past seasons. The Mavericks also have a huge look-ahead game as they host the Clippers on Wednesday. That's their home grudge match game of the year after the Clippers stole free agent DeAndre Jordan from them after Jordan gave his word he'd sign with Dallas. 

This is a circle-the-wagons game for New Orleans. The Pelicans' next three games are on the road starting Wednesday at Atlanta where they will be heavy underdogs. 

The winless 76ers are as bad as they have been during their last two tanking seasons. 
Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games and has lost to Chicago 11 of 12 times, including the last six. 
It's how the serious opposition takes the 76ers in determining the point spread. 
The Bulls have been up and down under first-year coach Fred Hoiberg. They are coming off an embarrassing 102-93 home loss to another bottom feeder, the Timberwolves, this past Saturday. That game went into overtime where the Bulls managed to not score a point during the extra session. Humiliating. 
Chicago doesn't play again until Friday when it hosts Charlotte. 
So I see the Bulls holding nothing back. This is an opportunity to regain their confidence and get Hoiberg a needed victory. The Bulls have far more talent than the 76ers and also a much stronger bench. Chicago is one of the deepest teams in the league, which is a key if this game should reach garbage time. That's always a strong possibility when the 76ers are involved. 

The records show the Lakers to be 1-4 and the Knicks 2-4. 

But there is a class difference here. The Knicks are a level higher than the Lakers and they are boosted by a favorable situation. 
New York is much improved from last season's disaster. The Lakers were a disaster, too, last season - and they remain a bottom five team.
Each of the Knicks' six games have been against a playoff team. Their losses were to the Bucks, Spurs, Cavaliers and Hawks. The Lakers, by contrast, haven't met a playoff opponent yet. Their games have come versus the Timberwolves, Kings, Mavericks, Nuggets and Nets. 
Not only are the Knicks the more battle tested foe, but they are in a very good spot. This is an early start time. It means for the Lakers their biological clocks have to adjust to playing a morning game by West Coast time. 
LA opened its five-game road trip with a 104-98 win against the hapless Nets on Friday night. The Lakers have failed to cover the last six times after winning in their previous game. They also are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at Madison Square Garden. 
New York lost on Friday at home to the Bucks. The Knicks are desperate to reward their home fans as they are 0-3 at home. They are 7-1-1 ATS following a defeat, though. The Knicks went 2-0 versus the Lakers last season - and are much better this year.
There also is the Phil Jackson factor. The former long-time Lakers head coach is the Knicks' president. The Knicks certainly don't want to lose at home to Jackson's old team. 


 

It's dangerous to step in against Golden State. But this is a clear flat spot for the Warriors.
Golden State is 5-0 beating all playoff teams. The Warriors' last two victories were grudge matches against the Grizzlies and Clippers. 
The Warriors play again on Saturday so they'll want to rest players and reduce starter's minutes. 
Denver is a young, up-and-down team. The Nuggets are capable, though. They proved that upsetting Houston on the road. The Nuggets are not a bottom feeder having defeated the Lakers by 11 points on the road. 
The Nuggets should play hard here after losing by 12 at home to Utah last night. Fatigue is not an issue this early in the season. 
This is an inflated line and needs to be taken advantage of. 

Portland is breaking in four new starters, has a weak bench and carries a heavy fatigue rating playing for the fifth time in seven days. 

The Trail Blazers are in a letdown spot, too, after a 108-92 road upset win against Utah last night. 
The physical Grizzlies are one of the toughest opponents to face when tired. They have owned Portland winning 13 of the past 15 matchups, including six of the last eight in Portland. Those Trail Blazers teams were much stronger than this current one. 
Memphis was embarrassed by Golden State on Monday losing by 50 points. The Grizzlies got on track two nights ago winning by 14 against the Kings. 
While Portland has regressed, Memphis still is the same team it has been the last few years - one of the best defensive teams in the league and an elite club. 

Sacramento was rusty and minus DeMarcus Cousins when it lost, 103-89, to Memphis last night. The timing wasn't good for the Kings. They had been idle since Saturday, while the Grizzlies were super fired-up having been embarrassed by 50 points by Golden State on Monday night. 
Cousins is going to miss this game, too. But the Kings fortified their frontcourt during the offseason and have had a game now to adjust to Cousins' absence. Sacramento is better in non-pressure type spots, which this matchup is. 
Phoenix does not have an imposing frontcourt. The Kings have matched up well to the Suns winning three of four last season. Sacramento also is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Phoenix and 3-0-1 ATS the last four times when playing without rest. 
The Suns' strength is their backcourt. The Kings' backcourt can match them. Rajon Rondo has been playing well this season. So has Darren Collison. The Kings face a much shorter, less physical and much worse defensive team in the Suns than they did last night against the Grizzlies. 

The Nets won't be lacking for motivation. The Hawks eliminated them in the first round of the playoffs last season. Brooklyn played Atlanta tough in that series taking the heavily favored Hawks to six games while covering four times. 
Atlanta isn't sneaking up on teams like last season. The Hawks also aren't as good as last season having lost DeMarre Carroll. Atlanta, though, is off an impressive 98-92 road win against the hot Heat. 
That not only means a letdown for the Hawks here knowing they are playing a weak opponent, but also puts into play the real possibility of Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer resting starters since it's a back-to-back spot. This is something Budenholzer did a lot last season in emulating his mentor Gregg Poppovich. Budenholzer was an assistant to Popovich at San Antonio from 1996-2013. 
This is a perfect opportunity for Budenholzer to do this since the Hawks are facing a weak foe and playing for the fifth time in seven days and third in four days. 
There still is the matter of the 0-4 Nets playing well enough to cover. They certainly haven't looked good in getting outscored by an average of nearly 15 points per game. 
But I trust Lionel Hollins to have the Nets ready for this matchup. Big man Brook Lopez is playing well and the Nets are due to shoot better, especially from 3-point range where normally reliable Joe Johnson has missed nine of 12 from the arc and has been in a scoring slump averaging fewer than 10 points per game. 

The Wizards finally proved they could beat the Spurs, winning 101-93 at home last Jan. 13. That ended a 17-game losing streak to San Antonio. 
Now Washington hosts San Antonio again - and I like the Wizards' chances. The timing is good for the Wizards catching the Spurs this early in the season and playing on the road for the third time in four days. 
San Antonio is in transition right now. Roles have changed. There's an adjustment period going on with star newcomer LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs aren't a cohesive unit yet. Far from it. However, they've been fortunate to have played the Nets, Celtics and Knicks so they are on a three-game winning streak. 
Now the Spurs are in a step-up situation. The Wizards should be ready. They have been idle since Saturday when they played horrible defense in a 117-110 home loss to the Knicks. The Wizards are itching to get back on the court to redeem themselves and now have the confidence knowing they beat the Spurs the last time they hosted them. 
The Wizards have one of the best backcourts in the league with John Wall and Bradley Beal, who is very underrated. Marcin Gortat is an underrated big man. 

It's difficult to come back on the Grizzlies after they lost by 50 points to the Warriors last night to begin their season-long five-game, nine-day road trip.
The only plus that can be taken from that humiliation for the Grizzlies is that none of their starters played more than 26 minutes. 
I see the prideful, veteran Grizzlies coming back fired-up to take their frustrations out on perennial bottom-feeder Sacramento. The Kings will be without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins. The Kings went 6-17 without Cousins last season. 
Cousins, the Kings' leading scorer and rebounder, suffered a sore right Achilles' tendon injury during Saturday's loss to the Clippers. 
The Kings have been idle since then, but that's actually too much time off for this early in the season. So I see the Kings not only missing their key player but also being rusty.
The Grizzlies can't take another loss here on this road trip. The Grizzlies' next four games are at Portland - which is down but remains tough at home - at Utah, at the unbeaten Clippers and then home to the unbeaten Warriors. 
Sacramento can't match Memphis' defense nor stay with the Grizzlies on the boards, especially minus Cousins, plus the Kings aren't strong mentally. 

 Memphis has proven it can hang with Golden State taking the defending champions to six games in the playoffs last season, including winning Game 2 at Oracle Arena, 97-90. 

The Grizzlies have their same cast of rough customers that helped them to finish in the top five in defensive scoring each of the last four years. This figures to be a fierce, intense battle with the Grizzlies out for revenge. Memphis has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Golden State. 

The Warriors haven't seen a defense this good yet. Golden State has looked good in going 3-0. But two of the victories came against 0-3 New Orleans, which ranks last in defense, has injuries and point guard Jrue Holiday playing limited minutes. The Warriors' other victory occurred against the struggling 0-3 Rockets, who rank 25th defensively and 28th in defensive shooting percentage. 

Steve Kerr has yet to return to the bench and big man Andrew Bogut is questionable. 

The Thunder are 3-0. The Rockets are 0-3. The records are what they are.
Oklahoma City has looked great with a healthy Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka back in the lineup. The Thunder are coming out firing after last season's 3-12 opening that they never could recover from. Durant is averaging 30 points. 
The Rockets have been just the opposite shooting 37.1 percent from the field and averaging 88.7 points in blowout losses to the Nuggets, Warriors and Heat. James Harden hasn't adjusted to new point guard Ty Lawson yet. Harden is shooting 22 percent from the field and the Rockets are averaging 17 turnovers a game.
Dwight Howard is set to play, but he's going to be rusty having played once in the last three weeks. The Rockets aren't likely to have big man Terrence Jones while the Thunder upgraded their frontcourt with Enes Kanter. 
Oklahoma City played yesterday, but were able to rest its starters during the fourth quarter in a 117-93 blowout of Denver. Durant logged less than 28 minutes. The Thunder is 13-6 ATS following a victory. 
Houston has had problems since preseason and they haven't gone away. The Rockets have lost all of their games by 20 points. The latest coming yesterday at Miami. Their first two defeats were at home to Denver and Golden State. Harden played 39 minutes on Sunday. 
So right now this spread is way too short. 

The Pelicans have revenge for last season's playoffs when the Warriors swept them four games. New Orleans did cover three of those matchups, though.
Now the Pelicans have added revenge after losing this past Tuesday on opening night to Golden State, 111-95. 
So why should things be different just five days later?
The spot, setting, Golden State injuries and Anthony Davis that's why.  
First, the spot. The Warriors just finished a bigger game knocking off Houston on the road last night. New Orleans followed up its loss to the Warriors by playing this Wednesday and had no energy - physically and mentally - in a 112-94 road loss to Portland. 
Second, the setting. This is the Pelicans' home opener. They are desperate to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 2004-05. New Orleans finished last season covering six of its last seven at home. New Orleans is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games versus opponents with winning road records. 
Third, Golden State injuries. Andrew Bogut is out. That means the Warriors can't go big against Davis. Coach Steve Kerr isn't on the trip. He's home recovering from back surgery. Star shooting guard Klay Thompson is off to a slow start caused by an ailing back. He might not see action against the Pelicans after playing 24 minutes last night. 
Then there's the Davis factor. He's the best big man in the game. Davis entered this season averaging 30.9 points, 12.3 rebounds and shooting 57 percent from the field in his last seven games against the Warriors.
But he inexplicably missed 16 of 20 shots from the floor versus the Warriors in the first meeting. That's not going to happen a second time. 

Look for a Suns bounce back after Phoenix was blasted by Dallas, 111-95, two nights ago. 
Portland, on the other hand, looked great in dispatching New Orleans at home, 112-94, this past Wednesday. 
Phoenix isn't that bad, nor is Portland that good. The Trail Blazers, in fact, are going to struggle this season especially on the road. They have four new starters. One is C.J. McCollum, who scored 37 points against the Pelicans. 
McCollum isn't going to be that hot again. The Trail Blazers caught the Pelicans playing on the second of back-to-back nights having just faced the defending world champion Warriors in a huge revenge spot. 
Portland has failed to cover in six of its last eight visits to Phoenix. The Suns are going to have their intensity up not only for being embarrassed at home in their opener, but also because the organization is honoring popular Steve Nash. 
Note, too, that the teams play at Portland on Saturday. So if the Suns break to a big lead, Portland coach Terry Stotts may take it easy in order to set things up on Saturday for his team. 

Utah closed as one of the hotter teams in the NBA last season going 21-11. The Jazz were the strongest defensive club in the league down that stretch.

The Jazz's priority is to start fast this season. That didn't work out in their first game, a 92-87 road loss to Detroit. Utah plays again on the road in their next game. All together, the Jazz open with a brutal slate of eight of 10 road matchups.

So this game has high priority for Utah. The 76ers, on the other hand, have a different priority. They have a young, short-handed roster - only nine healthy players and an extremely weak bench - and are in rebuilt mode again playing for the future. It was not a surprise the Celtics blew out Philadelphia two nights ago. 

The 76ers could have the worst offense in the league. It's a big concern of their coach, Brett Brown. Utah has won the last five in this series, holding the 76ers to an average of 77 points on 34.6 percent shooting in last season's two victories. 

This is a dangerous, flat spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder were impressive in beating San Antonio, 112-106, at home two nights ago. Up next for the Thunder following this game is a home game on Sunday versus 1-0 Denver followed by a road game against Houston on Monday. 

Orlando has been stockpiling talent for the past couple of seasons and now it's ready to pay dividends. The Magic nearly upset Washington in their opener, losing by one point when John Wall hit a shot with 12 seconds left. Orlando led by eight in the fourth quarter. The Magic nearly beat the Wizards despite missing 21 of 26 shots from 3-point range. 
The Magic have a number of young players poised for breakout seasons - Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Elfrid Payton - plus a steady, double-double machine in big man Nik Vucevic. 
The Thunder are going to have to deal with the distraction of Billy Donovan returning to Florida. A more quiet factor is the Magic are much better coached this season with Scott Skiles on the bench. He has a track record of turning around bad teams having done it three times. 

Let's not overreact to one game. The line is shorter than normal for this matchup because the Hawks lost their opener on Tuesday at home to the Pistons while the Knicks upset the Bucks on the road last night. 
Yes, New York is improved. And, yes, Atlanta is down a bit from last season. But the Hawks still are way better than the Knicks. The gap has narrowed, but not nearly enough where the Hawks, winners of 60 games last season, should be this short of a favorite against New York, which won 43 fewer games last season than Atlanta. 
The Knicks matched up well to Milwaukee and caught the Bucks minus three of their top eight players, including suspended Giannis Antetokoumpo. New York's depth is improved, but Carmelo Anthony is extremely rusty. He played last night for the first time since February. He's nowhere near the All-Star caliber player he's been. 
The Hawks were ambushed by the Pistons. Detroit played great while Atlanta had an off-night missing 19 of 27 shots from 3-point range. The Hawks have their entire team back from last season with the exception of DeMarre Carroll. Their core of Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver is intact. The Knicks can't match that. 
The Hawks added Tim Hardaway Jr., who's expected to play tonight after being inactive against the Pistons. Hardaway played for the Knicks and can provide useful insight. 

Memphis had an off-night last night. But the Grizzlies match up up extremely well to the Pacers, who aren't nearly as tall and physical without Roy Hibbert.
Minus Hibbert, the Pacers are going to have problems in the paint and controlling the boards. Those are the Grizzlies' major strengths. 
The veteran Grizzlies are a prideful team. Their core has been together for years. They were embarrassed last night. 

The Pacers not only are small now, but they have chemistry issues and are getting readjusted to Paul George being back. So the spot is right for Memphis. 

Charlotte was impressive during preseason going 7-1. The Hornets traditionally are good in an underdog role. They have a healthy Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. Those two missed a combined 37 games last season. 
The Hornets also upgraded their roster adding Nicolas Batum, an excellent two-way player, Jeremy Lin to upgrade their point guard depth and adding muscle up front with Spencer Hawes and Tyler Hansbrough. 
The Heat have star power, but Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng are past their peaks. All were banged-up last season. The Heat weren't able to develop much chemistry during preseason due to minor injuries and key veterans being rested. Goran Dragic also is still trying to fit in. 
The spot is ripe for the Hornets to steal a game here, or at least certainly keep things close. 

The Jazz open their season tonight. Utah was one of the better teams after the All-Star break going 19-10. The Jazz put up the best defensive statistics in the league during that span. 
Detroit played last night. But it's not the second game in two days factor why I'm fading the Pistons. Their legs are fresh this early in the season. It's the Pistons coming off a hugely satisfying 106-94 upset road win against Atlanta last night. 
The Pistons aren't good enough or mature enough to handle a victory like that without suffering a letdown even returning to Detroit to play in their home opener. I also believe the Jazz are the better team. They certainly were down the stretch last season. 
Utah has to play eight of its first 10 games on the road. It's the toughest opening schedule of any team. The Jazz can't afford to start off losing to the Pistons, a team they have beaten 18 of the last 21 times. Utah has covered in nine of its last 10 road games against the Pistons. 

The 76ers' offense is going to be way down early in the season. This is partly due to injuries to Robert Covington, Tony Wroten and Nik Stauskas. 76ers coach Brett Brown admitted his team's offense is going to be terrible admitting that his young team - no player in the rotation above 24 - needs to work more on studying than specific game planning. 
The 76ers and Celtics met in a preseason game this past Friday and there were just 146 points scored. 

Boston is changing its style and has added many new faces. So an adjustment period is in order. But the bottom line here is the 76ers are going to be the worst offensive team in the league and the oddsmaker is giving them to much credit with a total this high.  

The Pelicans have been waiting all offseason for this opening matchup after Golden State ended their season by sweeping them in the playoffs. New Orleans did cover three of the four playoff games and I see the Pelicans covering here, too.
It's always a distraction for the defending champions playing in their first game of the season celebrating ring night. This is especially so for the Warriors, who won their first championship in 40 years and will be without their steady head coach Steve Kerr.
Kerr won't be coaching the Warriors probably for at least the first week as he recovers from two offseason back surgeries. That's significant because it elevates 35-year-old Luke Walton into the interim head coaching spot. Walton was the Warriors' No. 3 assistant last season. He faces a huge challenge of making the right substitutions. This is tricky to do because the Warriors have a lot of depth. Kerr was very good at putting the best lineup on the floor depending on matchup and game flow. 
Alvin Gentry was the Warriors' No. 1 assistant coach last season and he's now the Pelicans head coach. That's a huge edge for New Orleans when playing Golden State. 
Anthony Davis is the best big man in the game. Gentry believes Davis can reach even greater heights in an up-tempo offense, which is his style. The Pelicans won't have Tyreke Evans, but they do have Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon healthy. 

This is a good spot for Chicago in Fred Hoiberg's coaching debut. The Bulls are home and in revenge mode after the Cavaliers beat them in six games during the Eastern Conference semifinals last season.
Chicago has improved its depth. The Bulls are the only team in the league that goes 11-12 deep. Derrick Rose is going to start. 
LeBron James also is going to start for Cleveland, but the Cavaliers will be extremely cautious with him. James was deactivated in preseason dealing with a back injury. 
The Cavaliers won't have Kyrie Irving and Ian Shumpert, who is their top perimeter defender. Center Timofey Mozgov may not play either because of knee soreness. 
Then the Cavaliers have rust. Kevin Love is recovering from shoulder surgery. He shot just 33 percent from the floor in preseason. Anderson Varejao is coming off a season-ending Achilles tear and Tristain Thompson is rusty having not played since June missing training camp and preseason. 
The Bulls have the front line talent and superior bench to take advantage.

There is too much value to overlook here on the Cavaliers. The Warriors took advantage of Cleveland's tired legs to blow out the Cavaliers in Game 4.
But the Cavaliers will be fresher in this matchup with two days of rest instead of one. Cleveland is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. If you throw out Game 4, Cleveland would be 17-0 ATS in the playoffs taking this many points. The Cavaliers also are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover.
The Cavaliers are going to shoot better than 33 percent from the floor, which they did in Game 4 while missing 23 of 27 shots from beyond the arc. LeBron James missed 15 of 22 shots from the field. If it weren't for their bad shooting, the Cavaliers were right there with the Warriors in Game 4 outrebounding them and committing fewer than 10 turnovers.
James and Co. won't be intimidated playing at Oracle Arena either. They are 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS in the playoffs on the road. One of those losses and non-point spread covers came in Game 1 at Oracle when the Cavaliers lost by eight in overtime.
Golden State has failed to cover 10 of its last 15 home contests and haven't been overly impressive in the playoffs.
Prop Recommendation:
I would play against Andre Iguodala going under his point total and any prop that features his combined points, rebounds and assists. Iguodala is getting a lot of attention because of his 22-point game in Game 4. But he played more than 39 minutes, which is three minutes more than he's played in any of the other nine previous playoff games Golden State has played in. 
Iguodala averaged just 7.8 points per game during the regular season. Prior to Game 4, he was averaging nine points per game during Golden State's previous nine playoff games.
Iguodala is defensive-minded. He's a good all-around player, but shooting is not his strength. He just happen to have a lucky scoring night in Game 4. 

All three games in this NBA championship Series have gone under the posted total during regulation. It hasn't been that close either as they've gone under by an average of 13.3 points. I get that the series has been about outstanding defense, particularly Cleveland's defense.
But this is 10 points under the posted Game 1 total, the lowest over/under of the series. I say it's too much of an adjustment.
There are a number of reasons for this.
After 11 quarters, the Warriors finally got untracked in the fourth quarter of Game 3 this past Tuesday scoring 36 in the period. Stephen Curry put up 17 of those. Curry finally showed a skip to his step and played like he did during his MVP regular season.
Curry is at his best on the open floor. Steve Kerr is going to make that happen by going to a smaller lineup getting David Lee more involved. Lee is an offensive upgrade on ineffective Andrew Bogut and defensive-minded and banged-up Draymond Green.  
The Cavaliers have a much shorter bench than the Warriors. They have been concentrating on the defensive end while letting LeBron James do nearly all of the offensive work. I can see fatigue affecting Cleveland's defensive effort and intensity in this Game 4, which has a short turnaround time from when Game 3 was played.
I also see the Cavaliers stepping up their offensive performance. James is in line for another monster game with Green bothered by a back injury suffered in Game 2. Green, maybe the Warriors' top defender, played barely 30 minutes this past Tuesday. That was the second-fewest minutes he's logged during the playoffs.
The Cavaliers put up 52 points in the second half in Game 3. Some of this was because Cavaliers coach David Blatt went to more double high posts, which opened up his team's offense and gave James more freedom.  

A combination of the Cavaliers winning Game 2 and now returning home has caused a seven-point adjustment in the line from Game 2.
Yes, I was surprised the Warriors fell outright to Cleveland this past Sunday. I certainly respect the Cavaliers and the great LeBron James. But I'm not going to overreact.
The Warriors were tight in Game 1. The long layoff following the conference championship game certainly didn't help them. The Warriors got caught playing Cleveland's style too much in Game 2. Now that we're into Game 3, I see the Warriors finally playing up to their capabilities.
Golden State is 24-11 ATS the last 35 times following a defeat. Cleveland is 3-8 ATS after covering the spread in its last game.
James gives the Cavaliers the best player on the court. But the Warriors dominate from there with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving out. They also have the far superior bench.
Golden State's depth and versatility will be keys in this Game 3 with just one day in between games.
The Warriors shot less than 40 percent from the floor in Game 2. They missed 27 of 35 shots from 3-point range. Stephen Curry may have had his worst game ever. Yet Golden State only lost by two points in overtime. That's telling.
The Cavaliers are who they are now - heavily LeBron James-oriented. But the Warriors still have several more gears. They are the superior team - and it will show here.

A drop of 10 points from Game 1's closing number helps put me on the over in this Game 3 matchup of the Warriors-Cavaliers.
The first two games fell under the total during regulation. So there is some zig-zag involved here, but also the fact that the week layoff following the conference championship games and the Finals threw both offenses out of whack. Now the two teams have played a pair of games.
LeBron James ranks among the game's greatest players. He's at his peak. The Warriors can't stop him. He's going to do massive offensive damage especially now that the series shifts to Cleveland where James figures to get the majority of calls in his favor.
The Warriors, though, should pick up the pace now that they've had a couple of games to adjust to the Cavaliers. The slow pace of Sunday's Game 2 was not conducive to the Warriors.
It should be near impossible for Stephen Curry to miss 18 of 23 shots from the floor, including 13 of 15 from 3-point range, like he did this past Sunday. Curry is the most deadly shooter in the league.

It's hard to envision the Cavaliers playing much better than they did during the first 48 minutes of Game 1 - and that was before Kyrie Irving suffered a knee injury in overtime. Despite their efforts, the Cavaliers not only failed to win Game 1, but couldn't cover the 5 1/2-to-6 point spread.
By contrast, the Warriors didn't bring their "A" game this past Thursday. They came out tight. Perhaps it was a case of nerves following the long layoff. The Warriors missed 16 of 31 inside shots during regulation.
I'm expecting a much better performance from the Warriors now in Game 2. Golden State is 20-5-1 ATS the past 26 times when playing on two days rest.
On the flip side, I doubt that the Cavaliers can play as well as they did during regulation this past Thursday. That's especially the case with Irving out. Cleveland was plus five points when Irving was on the court and minus 13 when he was on the bench.
As great as he is, LeBron James can't do it alone and Golden State's bench is far superior to Cleveland's. The Warriors proved that in Game 1.  
The Warriors have been strong money-makers in this role going 21-8-2 during their past 31 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.

Golden State has been minus 9 1/2, or higher, in each of its eight home playoff games versus the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Rockets. The last time the Warriors were this low of a home favorite was Jan. 5.
The Warriors have lost only three times at home all season in 49 games at Oracle Arena.
I believe Golden State is the better team - with an emphasis on team - and the point spread is more than fair.
The Warriors have played the tougher competition being in the West, have the superior coach, possess better 3-point shooters and are better defensively.
Golden State is ready to win the championship. The Warriors have been together the last couple of seasons as they've paid their playoff dues. Their chemistry and togetherness are major keys. An example of this is the Warriors led the NBA in assists per possession and are No. 1 in that category so far during the playoffs.
The Cavaliers were just put together this season. Kevin Love is out. Kyrie Irving isn't 100 percent. His defense can be exploited. Cleveland relies so heavily upon LeBron James. Granted, James is the best player in the world.
But the Warriors can guard James as well - if not better - than any team in the NBA with a combination of Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson. Green is a top defender and one of the most underrated players in the league.
The Warriors should win the rest of the matchups particularly in the backcourt with their own superstar, Stephen Curry, and Thompson.
The Cavaliers are more 1-on-1 oriented than the Warriors because of their heavy reliance on James. Green and the tight Warriors defense won't allow James to dominate inside by backing them down. As great as James is, he's still only 12-for-68 from 3-point range during the playoffs for 17 percent.
Cleveland can get away with that versus Eastern Conference foes, including a battered Hawks team that relied heavily on reserves and didn't measure up. But the Cavaliers can't get away with this on the road versus the best of the west.
The Cavaliers have failed to cover in five of their last six visits to Golden State.

I don't believe it's a leap of faith to believe the Hawks can keep things close in this matchup. If the Hawks are going to win a game in this series this is their spot.
Atlanta is in desperate straits down 0-2 with both losses coming at home. The Cavaliers can't help but feel overconfident. This is a letdown for them spot up 2-0 and returning home after burying the Hawks by 12 points two nights ago. The Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times they've played on one day's rest.
The Cavaliers might elect to hold out Kyrie Irving. Even if the hobbled Irving plays, he'll be wearing a knee brace as he deals with aggravated tendinitis.
DeMarre Carroll isn't at 100 percent either for Atlanta and Kyle Korver is out with a sprained ankle. The Hawks' bench, though, is decent and received a lot of work during the latter part of the season. Korver was having a disappointing postseason.
The Hawks are just 10-for-49 (20.4 percent) from 3-point range in this series. So Korver wasn't a big help. Atlanta is a much better shooting team than that.
Yes, the Hawks don't have anyone near the caliber of LeBron James. But they are a skilled and clever team that - up to this point - always had been relentless and prideful. I believe those season-long traits have not completely disappeared.
Atlanta has covered seven of the past eight times following a double-digit loss. They also are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 away matchups versus opponents with a winning home mark.

Outstanding defense and slow pace. That's a winning combination for an under play - and that's the scenario I see for this Game 2 of the Cavaliers-Hawks Eastern Conference Finals.
Cleveland has gone under in six of its last seven road games. The Cavaliers are giving up an average of 86.7 points during their last four games.
This isn't a fluke either. Because of Kevin Love's injury, Cavaliers coach David Blatt has figured out his best defensive starting lineup consists of Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert being on the court. Cleveland has yielded fewer than 90 points a game during the past six games Thompson and Shumpert have started. Thompson is the ultimate under player - a big man who can rebound and play defense but would rather pass than shoot.
The Hawks are a solid defensive team. They've allowed an average of 89.6 points per game during their last three games. DeMarre Carroll may not play. He's a good defender, but his impact would also be felt on Atlanta's offense. The under has cashed in five of the Hawks' last seven home contests.
Despite J.R. Smith having a game for the ages in Game 1 hitting eight of 12 shots from 3-point range, the total reached just 186 with Cleveland winning, 97-89.
These teams know how to defend each other. They also played at an extremely slow pace with an average of just over four fast break points per quarter, while eating up a lot of clock before shooting. The 92.5 point possession rate the teams played in Game 1 would have ranked last in the NBA.
The Hawks' defensive task is made easier by Kyrie Irving being far from 100 percent and now having just one day off between games. The under is 35-15-1 (70 percent) the past 51 times the Cavaliers have played on one day's rest.
Minus Love and with Irving hurting, LeBron James has to take deeper shots and he's shooting just 14 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs missing 42 of 49 shots from beyond the arc.
The Hawks' best 3-point shooter, Kyle Korver, is wearing down and cold, too. He's missed 12 of his last 15 shots from 3-point range.
Atlanta is in a desperate position down 0-1 at home. This is going to be an intense, methodical, grind-out defensive game. Worthy of a strong under play.

I don't see the Hawks getting into a hole right away by losing this Game 1 at home. Both teams have had ample time to prepare, but Kyrie Irving is hobbled.  
The Cavaliers already are without Kevin Love. LeBron James doesn't have a strong history in Game 1 of past series - 1-3 ATS during his last four playoff series - and Cleveland lost the past three times facing the Hawks during the regular season. The past two games were in Atlanta and the Hawks won those contests by nine and eight points, respectively.
The Hawks have a good defensive stopper, DeMarre Carroll. James scored 18 points and turned the ball over nine times the last time he faced Atlanta. James has to do way too much if Irving is too limited by the tendinitis in his left knee. Irving isn't the only Cleveland player hurting. Iman Shumpert (groin) and Tristan Thompson (shoulder) are not 100 percent either. This could impact Cleveland's defense.
I trust Atlanta's Mike Budenholzer, the coach of the year, more than I do Cleveland coach David Blatt. The Cavaliers face a tougher adjustment going from the talent-lacking Celtics and cold-shooting Bulls to playing the Hawks, who had a tough series with the Wizards.
Al Horford may be the second-best player on the court depending on Irving's physical condition. He stepped up against the Wizards. I expect Kyle Korver, who was so outstanding during the regular season, to get over his uncharacteristic shooting woes. Korver was the best 3-point shooter in the NBA this season, but missed 11 of his last 12 shots from beyond the arc against the Wizards.
 

Not only are the Warriors far superior to the Rockets, but the situation sets up well for them.
Golden State last played on Friday, while the Rockets exerted all of their energy in capturing their series against the Clippers after being down 3-1 clinching this past Sunday.
Certainly I give the Rockets credit for not quitting against the Clippers being down 19 points in the second half on the road in Game 6. But I attribute this more to an epic choke job by LA.
I didn't see a lot of defense from Houston. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Clippers' reserves playing terrible during much of the last four games.
The Rockets aren't polished and lack the Warriors' precision and defense. Houston also can't come close to matching up against Golden State's backcourt tandem of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Rockets really are going to miss underrated point guard Patrick Beverley, particularly his defense, in this series.
Golden State won and covered all four meetings during the regular season against the Rockets with Curry and Thompson combining to average better than 47 points per game while shooting 50 percent from the field.
The point spread may seem high, but the Warriors won 55 percent of their games this season by double-digits. They covered 59 percent of the time when laying 10 or more points.
The Rockets have lost 18 times by 10 or more points. The Rockets are 5-4 during their last nine playoff games. Each of those four defeats came by double-digits with their average losing margin being by 21.5 points a game.

All six games of this series have gone over the total. Once again we have the highest total of the series. It takes a lot of things to fall into place to exceed this high of a number.
Now, for the first time in the series, the teams have two days to prepare and rest instead of just one day. That means a lot this deep into the season especially for the Clippers, who ran out of gas in blowing a 19-point second-half lead this past Thursday.
I'm expecting a much tighter Clippers defense. LA is capable of this especially since they've had time to practice for the first time since this series began. The under has cashed the past four times the Clippers have played again after suffering a double-digit home loss. The Clippers also have gone under four of the past five times when playing on two days rest.
When the Clippers last played on an extra day of rest, they held the high-scoring Spurs to 94 points during regulation in Game 2 of their opening-round series.
DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard are two of the best defensive big men in basketball. Intensity is going to be at its peak for both teams in this do-or-die Game 7. That means making that extra pass, making sure to get back in transition and effectively boxing out to prevent offensive rebounds.  
The pace figures to be more deliberate and the referees aren't going to dominate the action with frequent whistles.

What are the oddsmakers saying by making the Clippers a road favorite against the Rockets in Game 7? They're telling you the Clippers are the better team - and I agree.
For the first time since early in their opening round playoff series against the Spurs, the Clippers get two days rest. It couldn't have come at a better team for the Clippers after their epic meltdown in Game 6 blowing a 19-point third quarter lead in their home loss this past Thursday.
Credit to the Rockets for this comeback, but the Clippers simply ran out of gas and got too overconfident. That's not going to happen in this game. The Clippers are the smarter team, better coached and have a top floor general in Chris Paul.
Josh Smith and Corey Brewer aren't going to get that hot again. Smith is one of the worst percentage shooters in the NBA. The Rockets haven't played any defense in this series. The Clippers were getting good looks, but ran out of gas, which affected their shooting.
The Clippers are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. They have proven themselves on the road, too covering 76 percent of their past 22 away matchups.
Houston has failed to cover in 10 of its past 14 meetings versus the Clippers.  
 

Forget that the Hawks went 60-22 during the regular season and Mike Budenholzer was named coach of the year. 
The Hawks aren't any better than the Wizards right now and Budenholzer isn't coaching any better than Randy Wittman, who I regard as one of the weaker playoff coaches. 
Atlanta is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Hawks were lucky to win 82-81 at home two nights ago in Game 5 after they blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead. They are 1-5-1 ATS following a victory. 
Washington is 5-0-1 ATS the past six times after a loss. The Wizards are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents with a winning record and 12-3-2 ATS during their last 17 overall games. 
The Wizards have matured and are better than a year ago when they fell at home in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference to the top-seeded Pacers and were eliminated. Washington is 3-1 at Verizon Center in the postseason this year compared to 1-4 during the playoffs last season. John Wall and Bradley Beal are better than they were a year. The Wizards didn't have veteran Paul Pierce last season and Otto Porter wasn't making major contributions like he is now in his much improved second season.
Wall played for the first time in four games in Game 5. He was rusty, but still put up 15 points and seven assists while learning to adjust with a broken non-shooting hand. Wall should be more effective in today's game.
The Hawks struggled to get past the Nets in the first round. They have yet to put together a solid four-quarter game, are on the road and have a disadvantage on the boards and at point guard with Wall returning for Washington. That's enough to get the Wizards a Game 6 victory.   

All five games of this series have gone over the total. Now we have the highest total of the series in this Game 6.
This is the time to play contrarian and go under the total.
True, these teams are about offense and the Rockets have played terrible defense.
But I see this game playing out differently. The Clippers could be tight in the role of huge home favorite with all the pressure on them to close out the Rockets right here.
The Rockets have better defenders than perceived. The key for Houston - which it executed in Game 5 - is ball movement. The Rockets should be super intense defensively and patient on offense looking to work their inside-outside game. So I'm expecting a slower tempo than normal between these two clubs.

Atlanta played one its best game of the playoffs in Game 4 defeating the Wizards on the road, 106-101, two nights ago. The Hawks shot a series-high 47.1 percent from the floor and sank 9-of-19 3-point shots.
Yet the Wizards - who didn't play up to their full capabilities and were minus John Wall - were within an open 3-point jumper by the normally clutch Paul Pierce of tying the game with seven seconds left.
Now the scene shifts to Atlanta. The Hawks have yet to produce an "A" game for 48 minutes. They've played well in spurts. But lost their mojo down the stretch of the regular season when Mike Budenholzer was resting players. They have yet to rediscover their early-season dominance. The playoffs are about superstars. The Hawks have good players. Not superstars.
The Wizards are at their most dangerous on the road in the playoffs. During the past two seasons, Washington is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS away from Verizon Center in the playoffs. They are 5-0 with Wall during the post-season. Wall has a broken non-shooting hand, but could play. He's a game-time decision. I like the Wizards here even if Wall doesn't play.
Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Wizards have covered in five of their last six road contests. The Hawks couldn't put the Wizards away in Game 4 when they stepped up their game - scoring just one basket during the final 3:30 and that was on a 3-pointer by Teague as the 24-second clock was expiring because he couldn't find a higher-percentage scoring option before time ran out.
I expect the Wizards to perform better. It's an extra bonus if Wall plays. Even if the Hawks continue to play well in spurts - which isn't a given - they still haven't shown enough to close out the Wizards and cover this large of a number. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Wizards lost by more than eight points.  

The last two games have been decided on final shots. These teams are very close.
It's a huge plus if Pau Gasol can play. But even if he can't, I like taking this many points with Chicago. The Bulls are better coached, have a deeper bench and the Cavaliers are minus Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving is severely limited by foot and knee injuries.
Irving has missed 18 of 23 shots from the floor during the last two games. Cleveland is just 2-8 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 

Maybe the oddsmaker considers the Grizzlies beating the Warriors in Game 2 AND Game 3 a fluke. I don't and have the statistics and matchups to back it up.
Some people are holding on too much to the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. What is meaningful is the Grizzlies have outscored the Warriors by 19 points during the past nine quarters. Memphis has been ahead for nearly 90 of the 96 minutes during the last two games.  
Memphis is the more experienced playoff team, has a taller more physical frontcourt and possess backcourt defensive aces to control Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
The Grizzlies can score inside with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Mike Conley provides backcourt scoring. The Warriors, on the other hand, are in trouble when Curry and Thompson go cold. They don't have the Grizzlies' inside-outside game being a small, jump-shooting team.
Memphis scored 14 more points than the Warriors in the paint in Game 3 while owning a 44-39 rebounding edge. The Warriors won't have injured reserve forward Marreese Speights for this game either.
Bothered by defensive whiz Tony Allen, the Warriors missed 20 of 26 3-point shots in Game 3. The key takeaway here is the Warriors just weren't on a cold spell. The flow and pace were clearly in Memphis' favor. The Warriors aren't nearly as dangerous hitting 3-pointers from half-court sets. They are at their best on the open court off turnovers. Yet they couldn't score one point off a Memphis turnover during the first half of Game 3.
The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. They have a very tough home court and are 5-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played, 4-0 at FedEx Forum.  
Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games. Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. It's clear again the oddsmaker/marketplace is misreading these teams.
The Grizzlies are a matchup nightmare for the Warriors - and they are home. This should be a pick'em type of line. Getting points, especially this many, is a generous gift.

Do I have concerns about the Rockets' lack of defense, basketball savvy and mental toughness?
Yes. But I also respect the Zig-Zag theory and the Rockets' star power. The superstars are going to cancel each other out, but I see the Rockets' key secondary players - namely Josh Smith and Trevor Ariza - shooting better while Austin Rivers and J.J. Redick fall back to Earth after playing the games of their life.
Smith is 9-for-31 shooting in the series. Ariza has missed 13 of 17 shots from 3-point range. Smith isn't a high percentage shooter, but he has big time talent while Ariza is underrated and normally a much more reliable shooter and defender.
Pride and the series are on the line here for the Rockets. Houston is 22-8 ATS following a loss. The Rockets haven't been this big of underdogs in more than 10 weeks.
The Rockets are better defensively than they've showed. They ranked sixth in points per possession during the regular season and held Chris Paul to 36.7 percent shooting from the floor during the regular season. Paul isn't 100 percent because of a hamstring aliment. He isn't likely to have the same adrenalin he had in Game 3 when he played for the first time since hitting the game-winning basket in Game 7 versus the Spurs.  
Neither are the Clippers, who are due for a letdown after taking out the defending champion Spurs in an epic seven-game first round series and blowing out the Rockets at home two days ago by 25 points.
Still, the Rockets need to make adjustments. I believe they will plus come out with tremendous intensity. I'm expecting to see Dwight Howard more involved in the offense. Defensively, I expect to see the Rockets go all out to get back on transition while limiting the Clippers' fast-break opportunities.
These teams are close to even talent-wise. The Clippers have been the smarter team. But changes and adjustments are coming from Houston. The Rockets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on one day's rest, while the Clippers are 2-8 during their past 10 home games.
So perspective needs to be maintained. The Rockets were this big of favorites during the first two games of the series. Now the line is completely reversed. It's way too much of an overreaction.



 
 
 

This isn't the regular season. The Warriors may be the best team in the NBA, but they have to prove it again. I don't see them having an easy run trying to accomplish it.
Should we overreact to Mike Conley's dramatic return and Tony Allen's outstanding defense in the Grizzlies' surprising 97-90 Game 2 road upset victory?
No, but this spread isn't giving the Grizzlies enough respect. Memphis is strong at FedEx Forum and creates matchup problems for the Warriors.
The Grizzlies have a tall, physical frontline. They also have outstanding backcourt defenders who can keep Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in check. Allen has 12 steals in his last three games. Conley is playing great two-way basketball. The Grizzlies are 4-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played.
The Grizzlies ranked second in fewest points allowed per game. They tied for the fourth-best home record at 31-10. The Warriors won a league-high 28 road games during the regular season, but went just 14-12 during their last 26 regular season away contests.
Golden State is 2-10 in its last 12 games at FedEx Forum. The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus opponents with a winning record.
Based on their record, the Warriors probably deserve to be a road favorite. But not by this much. I see value here with the Grizzlies - and that's the way I'm going.  

 

The zigs and zags of trying to master the NBA playoffs just don't come when playing sides. Totals also have to be considered.
The Rockets-Clippers have gone Over in both games of their series. Now we come to Game 3 where the total is the highest of the series - at least five points higher than it was in Game 1.
There were 224 points scored in the last game. The Rockets set a franchise record in free throw attempts at 64 and in free throws made with 42 during the last game.
Look for things to unfold different here. The Clippers aren't likely to have Chris Paul. Without Paul the pace gets slower. If Paul sits out the Clippers are hurt offensively. Austin Rivers played decently in place of Paul, but he's far from Paul. Very far. If Paul plays he'll be severely hobbled, which also will mean a slower pace.
The Clippers probably wouldn't mind a slower tempo anyways since they have been playing every other day since the third game of the Spurs series. Blake Griffin especially looked gassed at the end of Game 2.
Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan are two of the best - if not the best - defensive big men. Trevor Ariza and Josh Smith are solid defenders, too, even though the Rockets are perceived as being weak defensively.
Jamal Crawford is cold missing 26 of 40 shots from the field in the series. The Clippers count on Crawford's scoring off the bench.
The Clippers' defensive intensity should really be up after last game and compensating for Paul. The under has cashed eight of the past 10 times when the Clippers have lost in their last game.

The Cavaliers won their must-win home game on Wednesday. But now the scene shifts to Chicago - and things change.
Cleveland jumped out fast on Chicago in Game 2, but were outscored 73-68 during the final three quarters. I highly doubt the Cavaliers are going to get off to a similar fast start on the road.
Kevin Love is out for Cleveland. J.R. Smith returns from suspension. But how effective will the gunner be when he hasn't played in nearly two weeks? He's going to be very rusty. Rookie Cleveland coach David Blatt also now has to figure out what to do with both Smith and Iman Shumpert, who has played well in this series but also is dealing with a groin injury.
I have far more confidence in Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau than I do Blatt, who seems intimidated by James. The Cavaliers didn't seem to have great chemistry in that Game 2 victory. It was all James. Relying on a single superstar isn't always the best playoff formula especially when on the road. James took 29 shots from the floor during Game 2. Kyrie Irving had only nine shots from the field. This isn't the best example of team basketball.
The Bulls had a poor shooting game. Normally reliable Pau Gasol was just 3-for-8 from the field. Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler were a combined 11-for-34 shooting from the floor. Rose didn't get to the free throw line once during the two games in Cleveland. That's not likely to be the case at United Center, where the Bulls have won nine of the last 10 times.  
 

Perhaps the Bulls are better than the Cavaliers when Cleveland is minus Kevin Love and J.R. Smith.
But I'm willing to lay this spread with a fired-up LeBron James playing at home knowing Cleveland absolutely can't go down 0-2 in this series having played their first two games at Quicken Loans Arena.
Chicago played well in Game 1 on Monday. So nothing against the Bulls. But Cleveland is a very good defensive team, especially at home. I don't expect the Bulls to make half of their shots from the floor like they did on Monday, nor for Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose to be as successful in executing pick-and-roll plays.
I do expect the Cavaliers to be far less rusty. They had been idle for eight days before meeting the Bulls. I do expect James to shoot much better than of 9-of-22 like he did in Game 1 and to get to the free throw line far more than just twice. James will accomplish this by not settling for so many long jumpers like he did on Monday. He's going to play far more aggressive. He knows all of Tom Thibodeau's defenses. It's just a question of making his shots.
The Bulls have been far less effective when playing with just one day rest, which is the case here. Chicago lost the past two times to Milwaukee in Round 1 when playing on one day's rest.
This is the Cavaliers' season. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times following a loss. I expect them to respond with a big effort and I want them going for me today.

Forget the Zig/Zag and the Hawks being the superior team. Neither is going to hold up here.
Washington upset Atlanta in Game 1 despite shooting less than 42 percent from the floor. The Wizards were the more rested team by far, but somewhat rusty. The Hawks were lucky to have drawn the Nets as their first-round playoff opponent.
Atlanta isn't playing well. The Hawks averaged just 20.3 points during the final three quarters against the Wizards in Game 1. The Hawks were settling for low-percentage perimeter shots and not getting to the free throw line.
John Wall gives Washington a point guard edge to go with the Wizards' strong rebounding advantage. Wall has dished off 55 assists during the last four games. He's playing at a far higher level than Jeff Teague.  
Paul Pierce is proving a savvy, veteran presence for the Wizards and Otto Porter has been a surprise off the bench. The Wizards were plus 11 during Porter's time on the court in Game 1 on Sunday.
The facts are the Hawks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Wizards are 8-1 SU, 9-0 ATS the past two years in road playoff games beating market expectations by an average of 11.8 points per game.
It's time to face that reality.

Despite missing Kevin Love and suspended J. R. Smith, I don't see the Cavaliers falling to the Bulls in Game 1.
The Cavaliers are an elite home team, have had eight days to rest and prepare and have a motivated and healthy LeBron James.
Jimmy Butler was a monster against the Bucks in the Bulls' first-round series. Butler, though, isn't going to be the offensive force he was against Milwaukee having to concentrate and use so much of his energy to guard James.
Tristan Thompson doesn't have Love's offensive game, but he's a beast on the boards and can successfully defend Pau Gasol. The Bulls own the stronger bench, but that's not going to factor much in this opening game because of Cleveland's extended rest and ample preparation time. Veterans Shawn Marion and Mike Miller can be counted on to step up for the Cavaliers in this spot given their vast playoff experience.  
I do expect James and Kyrie Irving to play heavy minutes. The Cavaliers have the shooters and ability, with James' drives to the basket, to spread the floor and make open shots. That style works against Gasol and inside defensive whiz Joakim Noah.    
Irving is a legitimate star. He's overshadowed by James. Derrick Rose was a star, but has yet to prove consistent since returning from injury. James and Irving can be counted on. I can't say the same for Rose.  

Damn the perception. The fact is the Wizards are road playoff warriors. They've proven that the past two seasons going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. Now they catch a break with the scheduling of this game.
The Hawks are on a short turnaround having finally dispatched the Nets this past Friday. This is an early start game. They've had to travel three times already this week. The Wizards have been idle for a week leaving them fresh and well prepared.  
Forget the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. The Hawks peaked too early. They lost their mojo by resting starters too much down the stretch. It's a stinging indictment how much trouble they encountered taking six games to dispatch the Nets, who didn't play particularly well and were the worst team to make the playoffs. Atlanta is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games.
The Wizards have the better point guard in John Wall, have been playing better defense and are a much superior rebounding team. They also are healthy while the Hawks are nicked up with Al Horford bothered by a right pinkie injury and Paul Millsap dealing with a sore right shoulder.
Washington has beaten market expectations by close to 100 points in covering its last eight playoff road games. The Wizards are better than last season, too, now that savvy veteran Paul Pierce is on the team.
This sets up as a perfect opportunity for the Wizards to steal Game 1.

The Spurs are averaging 104.6 points during the last five games of this series. The Clippers are averaging 107.4 points in the series if you discount their Game 3 performance.
I'm expecting that scoring to keep up especially in this Game 7. Overtime is a possibility with such a short spread and there could be extra fouling during the end game with the loser being eliminated in what I consider to be the highest-caliber first-round playoff series in NBA history.
The Clippers have their confidence up after upsetting the Spurs on the road in Game 6. The prideful defending champions, though, won't go quietly. The over has cashed seven of the past eight times San Antonio lost in its previous game.
Los Angeles was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA while ranking third in 3-point shooting percentage. Yet the Clippers have missed 18 of their last 23 shots from beyond the arc. They are due to shoot much better.
There's another factor that could have positive ramifications for an over. Clippers reserve forward Glen Davis is questionable with a sprained ankle. If he can't go it would mean minutes for Hedo Turkoglu and Spencer Hawes, who are inferior defensively to Davis but much better offensively.
 

Fatigue is setting in as the Hawks-Nets head into today's Game 6. Atlanta played its starters a lot of minutes in Game 5, while Brook Lopez is hitting the wall for Brooklyn. The Nets' inside scoring takes a tremendous hit if Lopez isn't on his game.
Neither team played as well as they are capable of on defense during the last game, yet the total barely nudged over.
I don't see the teams combining to reach 200 points this time around with a fatigue factor, expected better defense as the intensity sinks in and the half-court slowdown styles.
Banged-up Deron Williams tumbled back to Earth in Game 5 scoring just five points on 2-of-8 shooting from the floor after scoring a highly surprising 35 points in Game 4.

I'm not convinced San Antonio is the superior team, let alone can cover this mid-range spread. The Clippers' stars are in their prime and in a must-win spot. Their NBA championship window can close as fast as aged San Antonio's in today's rapidly changing NBA.
The Spurs should get the Clippers' best effort here. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering 13 of the past 17 times. Los Angeles also has proven itself on the road going 12-3-1 ATS during its past 16 away matchups. The Clippers know they can win on the road. They blew a 14-point lead in their last game against San Antonio at home, probably coming within a foolish offensive goaltending violation of beating the Spurs and owning the series lead.
The Spurs nipped the Clippers in Game 5 by making 11 of 23 shots from 3-point range compared to the Clippers hitting only one of 14 from beyond the arc. San Antonio's reserves made 10 of 14 shots from 3-point range. These kind of figures aren't likely to come close to holding up. Certainly Jamal Crawford, the Clippers' top reserve, is due to break out of his shooting slump. He's missed an unbelievable 18 of his last 19 3-point shots during the past four games.

 NFL Draft Props 
Todd Gurley Under 20 1/2 in Round 1
At least one Internet sportsbook has an over/under of 20 1/2 in the first round of when Georgia running back Todd Gurley will be picked. I like under. I believe Gurley will be among the first 15 players selected.
Gurley is ahead of his rehab schedule after suffering a torn ACL this past November. His draft stock has risen considerably because of it. Gurley is a complete package runner. He could be the best running back prospect of the past three seasons.
There is a lot of pre-draft buzz about the Dolphins taking him at No. 14, but Gurley may get snatched up before then. He could go as high as No. 6. A possible landing spot could be to the Browns at No. 12.
The Browns need a featured star running back. Their quarterbacks are Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. Cleveland failed to reach triple digits in rushing during half of their games last season.

More than 5 1/2 wide receivers being taken in Round 1
I see nine potential first-round wide receivers. Amari Cooper and Kevin White are likely to be among the first eight picks. It wouldn't surprise me to see DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett go in the top 20.
Nelson Agholor is fast-rising so it now appears he's going in the first round. Dorial Green-Beckham is too intriguing a prospect to not get picked in the opening round. The Saints and Ravens are picking late in the draft and they both have receiving needs.
Devin Smith and Jalen Strong are worthy of first-round consideration, too.

Forget the Nets' 120-115 overtime victory two nights ago. There is not going to be 235 points scored in this pivotal Game 5 matchup. I don't see the Nets and Hawks combining to break 200.
This isn't Western Conference playoff basketball. It's an Eastern Conference matchup between two, slow, patient and methodical teams. Only six teams have a better defensive efficiency rating than Atlanta. Brooklyn has been frustrating the Hawks. So the Nets aren't suddenly going to play up-tempo when they know the Hawks have struggled in half-court.
Brooklyn averaged 91.3 points in the first three games of the series. Atlanta averaged 92.6 points during the first three contests. That's a combined 183.9 points per game for three of the first four games.
Now the defensive intensity is increased several notches with the series becoming a best two-of-three. There are fatigue issues at this point, too, following Monday's overtime game.
The Nets are plain bad. Deron Williams is too past his prime and banged-up to have a game for the ages like he did on Monday.
The Hawks aren't playing well and have lost their swagger. Until Game 4, the Hawks were shooting less than 40 percent from the field. The Hawks are a jump shooting team - and their jump shooters have lost their confidence and way.

Now that Dallas got its victory in Game 4 at home, I don't see the Mavericks showing up here.
The Mavericks are old and through. Chandler Parsons is hurt. Rajon Rondo basically has been kicked off the team and Dirk Nowitzki has too much age. The Mavericks lack the athleticism, chemistry and defense to stay close to the Rockets in this close-out match.
Dallas also has a terrible history in Houston having not won there since 2005. The Rockets beat the Mavericks by double-digits in each of the first two playoff games at home.
Even in losing Game 4, the Rockets still put up 109 points on a weak Dallas defense - and that was missing 16 straight shots at one point.
Dwight Howard is fresh after having missed much of the regular season and Houston's other starters actually logged fewer minutes than Dallas's key players during the past game.
Led by James Harden, the Rockets are a dangerous shooting team from beyond the arc. The Mavericks ranked 27th in 3-point defense. The Rockets can  beat the Mavericks inside with Howard, or via the perimeter.

Take away the first quarter of Game 1 and you could say the Nets have been the better team during the past 11 quarters of this series. The Nets served a big wake-up call to the Hawks by finally prevailing in Game 3, 91-83, at home this past Saturday.

Atlanta isn't playing nearly as well as it did earlier this season, averaging 10 points less per game so far in the playoffs than it did during the regular season. But I don't like the makeup of the Nets. Most of their best players are past their prime, they don't have a strong fan base with Barclays Center estimated to be only about 40 percent full at tip-off in Game 3 and Deron Williams isn't physically right. 

The Hawks are due to play much better. Their backcourt players missed 24 of 30 shots from the perimeter in Game 3. The open looks were there, for the most part, the shots just weren't dropping. Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague and Al Horford were only a combined 8-for-33 from the floor. 

The prideful Hawks are extremely well-coached and play with far more precision than Brooklyn. Atlanta's intensity is sure to be up. Cleveland is resting now after sweeping the Celtics and the Bulls are likely to close out the Bucks today. So the Hawks have a great deal of urgency to turn in their "A" game. They can't let this series get knotted at 2-2 and then face at least two more games. 

Williams is battling both injury and ineffectiveness missing 13 of 15 shots from the floor during the last two games while dealing with tendinitis.  

Last Sunday, the Clippers opened their first-round series against the Spurs winning, 107-92, at home.
Now, a week later, the Clippers are middle-range road underdogs. That's what happens when you lose in overtime at home in Game 2 and get blown out this past Friday at San Antonio by 27 points.
These teams, though, are much closer than this point spread especially with Tony Parker hampered by soreness in his right Achilles' tendon, left knee and left quadriceps. Parker is playing, but he's been ineffective missing 21 of 28 shots from the floor.
I'm expecting a huge bounce back effort from the Clippers following their worst playoff defeat in franchise history. The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games and should be up 2-1 in the series.
San Antonio is a proud champion, but this is not one of its great teams. The Game 3 blowout was unexpected. It would be even more of a shock if the Spurs blow out the Clippers - whose top stars are in their prime - a second time in a row.
Chris Paul gives the Clippers a point guard edge with Parker not 100 percent. Rarely has Paul played poorly in consecutive games. Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick are due for much better performances, too, after making only a combined 5-of-18 shots from the floor in Game 3.

Golden State wins games. But the Warriors don't cover point spreads. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, 0-6 during their past six matchups. 
New Orleans is full of talent with the best big man in the game, Anthony Davis. The Pelicans match up well to the Warriors, who are a jump-shooting, small team. 
The Pelicans trailed Golden State by six with under a minute to play in Game 1 before losing by seven. The Pelicans blew a 13-point lead in losing Game 2.
Then, two nights ago at home, the Pelicans lost a 20-point fourth quarter lead and fell in overtime. 
Golden State has savvy, heart and playoff experience. The Warriors know how to win. The Pelicans don't. But New Orleans is well past its playoff jitters being in the postseason for the first time since 2011. 
Sure there is a chance the Pelicans quit after being so close to victory in their last game. There also is the chance the Warriors still are celebrating their miracle Game 3 comeback and don't play with their usual concentration, focus and high energy. 
It's very difficult - and somewhat of a guess - to try to figure out a team's psyche. But I do know the Warriors are 0-7 ATS the past seven times following a victory and have failed to cover 19 of the past 26 times when playing on one day's rest.
New Orleans is 20-7 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning record and have covered in their last six home contests. The Pelicans haven't been this big of home 'dogs since Jan. 30. 

This total would make more sense if it were a regular season game. It's not, though. This is playoff basketball and it comes following an overtime game two nights ago.
There were a combined 199 points scored in Game 1. During regulation of Game 2 there were a combined 188 points scored.
Tony Parker has missed 13 of 17 shots from the field during the first two games and is extremely banged-up with a right Achilles injury along with being hampered by ankle and quad injuries.
If Parker doesn't play, the Spurs are likely to slow pace as they have no one to match up to Chris Paul. If Parker does play, he's likely to be limited and ineffective again.
The plus for the Spurs - on the defensive end - is big man Tiago Splitter getting healthier. He played more than 19 minutes in Game 2.  
Offense easily comes to mind when talking about these two teams because of all the star power.
But the Spurs ranked No. 3 in the league in fewest points allowed per game at 97. That number is lowered to 96.4 points per 100 possessions when Kawhi Leonard, the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year, is on the court.
The Clippers improved their defense in Game 2. Leonard took home defensive player of the year honors, but DeAndre Jordan could be the best defensive big man in basketball.
Jordan also is brutal from the free throw line making less than 40 percent.
 

The Bucks improved by 26 games from last season after finishing with an NBA-worst 15-67 record two seasons ago. They are well-coached, have a good bench and are past their early playoff jitters. This is an effort-team with heart.
Now they are home for the first time in the series. This is the season for Milwaukee. The Bucks are shooting just 37.4 percent in the series. They have missed 25 of 33 shots from 3-point range. Chicago's defense is down a notch this season.
The Bucks have just missed covering during the first two games. I see the Bucks shooting better and playing their best game of the series. This is their game to win.
The Bucks have doubled teamed Pau Gasol and bottled up the Bulls inside. It has been Chicago's outside shooting and clutch 3-pointers - particularly by Jimmy Butler - that has kept the Bucks from covering. Butler is a fine player. But he's not a 28-point per game scorer.
The Bulls may be without Nikola Mirotic, who suffered a knee and quad injury during Game 2. That would weaken an already thin Chicago bench.

Boston doesn't have the height or any kind of defensive stopper to prevent LeBron James and Kyrie Irving from penetrating and either scoring inside or dishing off for open look jumpers. The Cavaliers have made 52 percent of their two-point shots in the series and that's with Kevin Love hitting only 8-of-22 from the floor. Love should pick up his scoring making Cleveland's offense even more deadly in this game.
The Celtics are going to come out hard here. Brad Stevens has definitely gotten the most out of his team. Boston's offense has been efficient and could be even better with the home crowd behind them for the first time in the series. The Celtics have a winning home record.
Stevens is astute enough to realize he can't stop Cleveland by slowing pace. So I see the Celtics speeding up their attack. This is the shortest point spread of the series. The oddsmaker is anticipating a fairly close game and so am I. That means there should be more scoring - if not fouling - during the final three minutes of the game.
Because of Cleveland's big leads in the first two games there were only 14 combined points scored during the last three minutes of the first two games of the series.  
It's a plus for Boston that streaky Isaiah Thomas is playing well, scoring 22 points in each of the first two games while dishing off for 17 assists. The Celtics need to ride Thomas, who is small and a weak defender.
Note, too, that Cleveland has gone over in 10 of its last 11 road games versus opponents with a winning home record.

Memphis beat Portland, 100-86, in Sunday's Game 1 playoff game. I see the Grizzlies winning again by double digits at home in Game 2. 

The Trail Blazers have a key injury, are suffering from lack of confidence and do not match well against the physical Grizzlies. The Grizzlies could have buried the Trail Blazers by even more as they led by 24 points entering the final quarter. 

Memphis owns Portland. The Grizzlies have won and covered all five meetings this season, winning three of them by double-digits. Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four visits to FedEx Forum.  

This is where the Trail Blazers really miss Wesley Matthews, their highly underrated, all-purpose swingman. The Grizzlies are able to clamp down on Damian Lillard while their tall, bruising front court players keep LaMarcus Aldridge in check. The Trail Blazers don't have any other consistent scoring weapons. C.J. McCollum certainly isn't ready for prime time and Arron Afflalo has missed the past four games with a sore shoulder. Even if he plays today his shooting can't be relied upon. 

Not only did Mike Conley show he could deal with his painful right heel that had kept him out of the last four games of the regular season, but defensive whiz Tony Allen also played strong, too, in Game 1 for the Grizzlies in his first action since March 27. Allen had three steals. 

Conley should perform even better now that he knocked some of the rust off. Backup Grizzlies point guard Beno Udrih, meanwhile, has been playing extremely well. He had 20 points, seven assists, seven rebounds and did not turn the ball over in 24:12 minutes of action in Game 1. 

The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game during the season. Portland is a finesse team, extremely vulnerable to the physical Grizzlies.

Lillard missed 16 of 21 shots from the floor and had only three assists in nearly 40 minutes. Portland could manage just six fastbreak points in Game 1 as the Grizzlies controlled tempo. That's not going to change here. If anything it's going to get worse judging by the matchup issues the Trail Blazers face and their sagging body language, which shows a realistic lack of faith against this opponent in this tough setting.   

You would think each of these teams could reach 96 points. I do.
The Wizards averaged 98.5 points per game entering the postseason. Only five teams finished the regular season with a higher shooting percentage from the field than Washington.
Toronto was the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA averaging 104 points.
Yet in Game 1 the Wizards and Raptors combined for just 164 points in regulation and 179 for the game. So now the oddsmaker has reduced this Game 2 total down around three points from the opening game over/under figure.
I don't believe the adjustment is justified. There aren't going to be first-game jitters like in Game 1. Toronto is going to be better prepared with two full days to prepare.
The Raptors are well-coached. They won't be blindsided by the Wizards' rotation moves that seemed to catch them off guard.
Most of all the shooting is going to pick up. Washington's offensive strength is its backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. They combined to shoot 11 of 41 (26.8 percent) from the floor. This was just an off-shooting game by both of them. Toronto ranked 26th in defensive field goal percentage - and that's playing in the much weaker Eastern Conference.
Toronto's top offensive players - DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Lou Williams - shot even worse. They were a combined 12 for 46 (26 percent) from the field. This is what Lowry said following the game, "... But that's Game 1, you learn from the mistakes and you get better." Lowry also talked about playing at a faster pace and getting out in transition more.  
These guys are all proven offensive stars. Washington and Toronto aren't great defensive teams. I understand playoff basketball is much different than regular season. Defense and half-court styles are emphasized more especially in the Eastern Conference. But this total still is too much of an overreaction to Game 1's low score. It's way too much of a fluke for Wall, Beal, DeRozan, Lowry and Williams to all shoot so poorly again.

.

The Bucks are going to come hard at the Bulls here. The intensity level has risen. Points should be hard to come by.
As expected the young Bucks had first game playoff jitters - and it showed. They won't have that problem in Game 2. Their nerves have settled down.
Derrick Rose scored 23 points and had seven assists in his first playoff game in three years. Rose still has some rust. I don't expect him to shoot as well as he did in Game 1. The Bucks had the right strategy double-teaming Pau Gasol. He had his lowest-scoring game in six weeks missing 12 of 17 shots from the field.
The Bucks lost by 12 points in Game 1, but took six more shots than the Bulls. Milwaukee, though, shot only 39.3 percent from the floor and 69.3 percent from the foul line. Chicago shot 45.8 percent from the floor. The Bucks were the seventh-best shooting team from the field during the regular season averaging 45.9 percent while making 75.7 percent of their free throws.
The Bulls have failed to cover 17 of the past 25 times following a point spread cover.



 
 

The Bulls beat the Bucks, 103-91, in Game 1 of the series for a combined 194 points. There were 59 points scored during the first quarter. After that the teams settled down to average 45 points a quarter during the final three quarters. If the scoring pace for the last three periods of Game 1 follows form the combined total would be 180.
Of course the key question is will it? I believe it will.
Jason Kidd and Tom Thibodeau are defensive-minded coaches. These long-time division rivals know each other well. The under had cashed four straight times in this series until the Game 1 matchup.
The intensity level - already high - is going to be raised a level. Kidd was not happy about how that first quarter played out even though Milwaukee trailed just 30-29 following it. He said the pace was too fast and set a bad tone for his team.
The Bucks are not a big scoring team. They prefer a methodical pace. Their backcourt scoring is especially vulnerable after making the change from Brandon Knight to Michael Carter-Williams, a very low percentage shooter. He missed nine of 13 shots from the field in Game 1 bothered by Derrick Rose, an excellent defender.
Milwaukee held Pau Gasol to his lowest-scoring game since March 1. The Bucks double-teamed Gasol, who shot just 5-of-17 from the floor scoring 10 points. However, Rose played much better than expected in his first playoff game since tearing his ACL in a 2012 playoff game.  
Rose scored 23 points while making three of seven shots from 3-point range. However, he shot only two free throws. I don't see Rose shooting as well in this Game 2 especially since 44 percent of his field goal attempts in Game 1 were launched from 3-point range. The Bucks are going to continue to double Gasol forcing Rose to spend a lot of time dribbling and then launching long, low-percentage shots.

 
 

The last time these teams met was at Staples Center on Feb. 19. The Clippers won, 119-115, for a combined 234 points. DeAndre Jordan missed 18 free throws in 28 attempts during that game.
The Spurs are likely to send Jordan to the foul line a lot, too, in this matchup, which means frequent clock stoppages.
The Clippers are the No. 2 offensive team in the league averaging nearly 107 points per game. They rank second in field goal percentage and third in 3-point percentage. The Spurs rank in the bottom eight in 3-point defense.
San Antonio averages more than 103 points per game, while ranking third in field goal percentage and sixth in 3-point shooting.
The Spurs have come on strong averaging 109.7 points in their last seven games. Tony Parker could be in line for a big game having had ample rest.
The Clippers finally have gotten fully healthy. They are averaging 112 points during their last 13 games if you discount their 94-86 victory against the Grizzlies, the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA.
A point guard matchup of Parker versus Chris Paul should ensure a fast, up-tempo game.

Cleveland closed 33-9 and in my view is the best team in the Eastern Conference. Nothing less than a championship is the Cavaliers' goal. So Cleveland doesn't want to mess around with Boston.
The Celtics have yet to take the Cavaliers' best punch beating them twice during their last four games when Cleveland didn't play its best players. But now the Celtics are going to get their full lethal dose of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Cleveland is not going to lack motivation here.
Brad Stevens is turning out to be a fine coaching hire. The Celtics are kind of like a poor man's version of the Hawks with big men who pass and spread the floor bolstered with a good bench play and chemistry.
However, the Celtics lack playoff experience. This is just their second nationally televised game of the season. The Celtics also have nowhere close to the Cavaliers' talent. Stevens has the Celtics ahead of schedule making the playoffs in just his second year at the helm. There is much rebuilding left to do, though, in Boston. The Celtics are not ready to make this big of a jump - stay close to an elite opponent in a road playoff game - yet. That may come next year. Not this season. 

Look for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving to take advantage of Boston's lack of size by aggressively driving to the hoop. Nobody goes to the hoop stronger than James - and the Celtics lack the interior defense to stop him. Cleveland basically scored at will versus Boston when James played against them this season.
The Cavaliers also have the outside shooters to knock down jumpers if James faces double-teams and kicks the ball out.
Isaiah Thomas is averaging 19.3 points this month, but he isn't a good defender. Neither are a number of other Celtics, who will need to be in the lineup in order for Boston to try to keep up with Cleveland's offense.
The Celtics should play loose with nothing to lose. They employ an up-tempo style, especially with Thomas, and that pace certainly will not be abandoned when the Celtics start falling behind against a vastly superior opponent.
This is just the Celtics' second game on national television this season so they will likely be looking to keep running and trying to score right away if the game gets out of hand during garbage time.

Much is being made of Derrick Rose's sore knee, but the Bulls don't need Rose to be on his "A" game to cover this number against the Bucks.
Milwaukee is thrilled to be in the playoffs after finishing with the worst record last season. Many of the key Bucks players lack the necessary playoff experience. Being on the road in Game 1 is a huge negative.
The Bulls are a tough matchup for Milwaukee having covered five of the past six.
The Bulls have been hiding in the weeds overshadowed for much of the year by the Hawks and now the surging Cavaliers. They are underrated at this point.

On the surface this game is meaningless as both Boston and Milwaukee have clinched playoff berths.
The spot, though, greatly favors the Bucks. Milwaukee has won three in a row and is motivated to finish with its first winning record in five years. Boston has a five-game winning streak, but will be resting starters. Out for sure is guard Avery Bradley, who left last night's game against Toronto with a left leg injury.  
"We'll play some guys a lot less," Boston coach Brad Stevens was quoted as saying after the Celtics nipped the Raptors, 95-93, at home Tuesday night on a last-second fall-away jumper by Jae Crowder. "I assume we'll go deep into our bench (Wednesday) night."
Bucks coach Jason Kidd hasn't tipped his hand how long he'll play his starters, but finishing with a winning record is important for the Bucks. Milwaukee also has one of the stronger benches in the league.
The Celtics have been winning, but a closer examination of their five-game winning streak is in order. Boston beat the Cavaliers twice when Cleveland was sitting out key players. The Celtics also defeated the lottery-bound Pistons and edged the Raptors twice with each game decided at the buzzer. Toronto was without key players in those losses to Boston,  missing DeMar DeRozan last night and Kyle Lowery when it fell by one point in overtime.
The Bucks are 2-0 versus the Celtics this season. They defeated them, 110-101, in Boston on April 3 when the Celtics played well.  Boston isn't likely to come close to bringing it's "A" game in this matchup.

Detroit is 14 games better than New York. The Pistons average seven more points per game than the Knicks.
The big question is can the Pistons cover a mid-size road number in this matchup? Detroit has the talent and coaching to do it. I also believe the Pistons have the motivation thanks to Stan Van Gundy while the Knicks need to lose this game.
New York has potentially hurt its ping pong lottery chances by winning two in a row, including impressively defeating the Hawks in its last game two nights ago. OK, point made by Derek Fisher.
Now reality has to sink in for the Knicks, who should be fat and happy even though this is their worst season in franchise history. A victory here could severely hurt the Knicks in the long run - something their management is well aware of. If New York beats the Pistons today and the Timberwolves and 76ers also lose, the Knicks would finished tied for the second-worst record with Philadelphia.
That would mean a coin toss between the Knicks and 76ers for the No. 2 lottery seed. If the Knicks were to lose that coin flip they would drop down to the No. 3 seed and in the lottery drawing a team could fall three spots. That means the Knicks could potentially end up with the sixth pick in the draft despite having the worst record in franchise history. But lose here to the Pistons and that scenario is erased.
The Pistons are a lottery team, too, but winning this game won't change their seeding placement. Detroit has revenge for a 121-115 home loss to the Knicks on Feb. 27.
Detroit has a huge talent edge particularly upfront with Andre Drummond and upcoming free agent Greg Monroe, who really would like to shine in this game since there are heavy rumors that he's going to sign with the Knicks following the season. Van Gundy is an extremely prideful man. He doesn't want his season ending on a pair of sour notes with a loss to the lowly Knicks after getting blown out in their previous game against the Cavaliers, 109-97, this past Monday.
The Pistons are 9-0 ATS following a double-digit defeat. The fiery Van Gundy has kept Detroit competitive down the stretch despite not making the playoffs. The Pistons have covered in nine of their last 13 games.

First of all, this line has moved considerably since I first put it out. I like Toronto - even as a short favorite - but I would only recommend the Raptors as a one unit wager now since the early value has been lost.

Here is my analysis on the game:

Outstanding job by the Celtics this season to make the playoffs. But the young Celtics aren't better than Toronto and will be hard-pressed not to avoid a letdown after clinching a playoff spot last night when the Nets lost to the Bulls.
The Raptors are 2-1 versus Boston this season with their lone loss occurring in overtime by one point on a Boston basket at the buzzer 10 days ago at home. Toronto has plenty of incentive trailing Chicago by one-half game for the No. 3 seed in the East, quick revenge and looking to set a franchise record for victories during the regular season.
Toronto is back playing well winning six of its last eight. Star Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry should be less rusty. This will be his third game back after missing seven in a row because of back trouble.
Boston concludes its regular season tomorrow night at Milwaukee. The Celtics are a fantastic 10-1 the past 11 times when playing without rest. However, they are 4-7 during the first of consecutive games, which this matchup is. This record includes three consecutive losses at home. Overall, the Celtics have lost and failed to cover in four of their past six home contests.

This is bad on bad, but the Lakers are worse than the Kings and really don't want to win due to lottery positioning.

The Kings are minus Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins, but the Lakers also are depleted and now are minus injured Wesley Johnson.

Sacramento concludes its season at the Lakers on Wednesday. There is no way George Karl, who is trying to make the Kings respectable, wants to go into the off-season having concluded the season with back-to-back losses to the Lakers. This is Sacramento's game to win.

Utah cares about this game - with triple revenge motivation and this being its last home game of the season.
Dallas doesn't care. The Mavericks are locked into the No. 7 seed and are expected to rest all of their key players. Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler all are expected to sit out. Reports have them not even traveling to the game. Chandler Parson isn't expected to play either because of a knee injury that has kept him out of the past four games.
Dallas has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road matchups. This is its third road contest in four days and second in two days. The Mavericks are 0-3 SU and ATS the past three times when playing without rest.
The Jazz are playing well going 18-9 since the All-Star break. Utah ranks No. 1 in defense holding foes to 94.7 points per game. The Jazz have held 19 of their last 24 opponents under 93 points a game. No team has played stronger defense since mid-February.
Utah is an excellent current form winning six of its last eight while going 6-1-1 ATS. The Jazz have scored 101 or more points in three of their last four games.
This is a give-up, meaningless game for Dallas. The Jazz have everything going.

This matchup should have a playoff-type intensity with both teams desperately needing to win in their respective bids to earn a postseason berth - and I want the points with the Western Conference team.
Oklahoma City has won its last five games versus Eastern Conference competition defeating the Raptors, Bulls, Celtics, Hawks and Heat.
The Thunder are minus Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. That knocks them out of elite status, but they still have talent with Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters. Their record would look much better if they were in the Eastern Conference despite their major injuries.
Oklahoma City got back on track by rolling past Sacramento, 116-103, this past Thursday. Prior to beating the Kings, the Thunder had played the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. That's a brutal schedule. The Pacers aren't nearly as good as the Spurs, Rockets and Grizzlies.
Yes, Indiana is playing well winning four in a row. But the Pacers have taken advantage of a weak schedule having faced six consecutive sub .500 opponents. Now they step up in a chalk role.
 

Sacramento has key injuries. DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay - the Kings' two best players by far - are both out.
Denver, though, is 65-96 the past two seasons, including 29-50 this season. The Nuggets have dropped five of their last six. They should not be double-digit favorites against any team.
This is going to be an emotional game for Kings coach George Karl, who coached the Nuggets for eight plus years and was let go in controversial fashion. This is the first time he's coaching against his former team. I believe he'll have his team ready and the Kings will play hard and with motivation, something they don't always do on the road.  
Sacramento has won during its last two visits to Denver. The last being this past November.
The Nuggets still could be winded from playing an emotional double overtime game this past Friday night against Dallas in which there were 287 points scored. All but one of Denver's starters logged between 45-52 minutes in that wild game.

All trends point to an under here and so does the situation.
The under has cashed 17 of the past 22 times in this series. Minnesota has gone under seven of the past nine times when playing a foe with a winning record, while the Warriors are 16-5-1 under the past 22 times facing a below .500 opponent.
Golden State ranks first in defensive field goal percentage and is No. 3 in defending 3-pointers. The prideful Warriors didn't like surrendering 105 points to Portland in their last game.
Leandro Barbosa won't play for Golden State and the Warriors probably will limit Stephen Curry's minutes as there is nothing at stake in this matchup and it's likely to be a blowout.
The Timberwolves could be missing Kevin Martin. Minnesota has been held to less than 100 points in six of its last seven games.

This is an awkward spot for the Bulls. They just returned home following a three-game road trip that culminated in a satisfying victory two days ago against Miami. Following this game, the Bulls have a more challenging matchup on Monday at Brooklyn. This is Chicago's lone home matchup during a one-week span.
That could mean reduced focus since the Bulls head right back to the road after just arriving home yesterday. This isn't necessarily a kill spot for the Bulls, who are playing for the third time in four days. They just want to win and get the rust of Derrick Rose - who has missed 16 of 24 shots from the floor since returning from injury two games ago.
The 76ers won't have Nerlens Noel due to a sprained ankle. But the 76ers still are holding out hope of reaching 20 victories, which is a big deal for them.
Philadelphia has been idle since Wednesday when it was blasted at home by the Wizards, 119-90. So motivation, effort and prep time shouldn't be lacking.
The 76ers have covered 11 of the last 15 times following an ATS loss. They also are 14-3 ATS after losing by 10 or more points at home.
The Bulls haven't been good in this role failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times when going against under .500 teams.

This is the first of a three-game road trip for the Grizzlies, who are locked into a close race for playoff seeding in the West. Memphis could tumble all the way from being the No. 2 seed to being the sixth seed. That could happen if the Grizzlies lose here.
Because after this game, the Grizzlies play a hot and well-rested Clippers team on Saturday and then take on the NBA-best Warriors on Monday.
The Grizzlies are well aware of this. They know this is a game they can not afford to lose. Their motivation should be even more increased having lost at home to the Jazz, 93-82, last month.
Utah is playing well even though it is out of the playoff race. But the Jazz are stepping way up in class here. During their last five games, the Jazz have gone against the Timberwolves, Nuggets, Suns and Kings twice. None of those teams can play defense. Memphis can.
The Jazz need sharpshooter Gordon Hayward to hit his perimeter shots to beat at elite opponent. Hayward has been having a career season, but now has hit the wall. He's missed 11 of 14 shots from the floor during the last two games and Jazz coach Quin Snyder is restricting his minutes.
I don't see any of the Jazz's young and inconsistent shooters stepping up against such a quality defensive foe. The Grizzlies yield 95.1 points per game, second-best in the NBA.

It's official now. The Suns aren't making the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season.
It looked like the Suns were going to end this dry spell when they won 28 of their first 48 games. But Phoenix management tinkered with their roster making three deals that so far haven't worked out. The result is an 11-20 mark in their last 31 games.
The Suns have injuries with Brandon Knight and Alex Len out. Eric Bledsoe, their key player, isn't producing. Morale is bad. So is the defense, which ranks 26th, and the Suns can't always be counted on to play hard. They have lost three games by 27 points this season.
New Orleans, on the other hand, is extremely motivated. The Pelicans are off their worst loss of the season, losing 110-74 to the Grizzlies this past Wednesday. They are tied with the Thunder for the final playoff spot in the West, but the Thunder has the easier schedule. The Pelicans still have to play the Rockets and Spurs. They certainly can't afford to slip up here at home against a demoralized Suns squad.  
If you discount road games against the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, the Pelicans are averaging 105.8 points per game during their last five games. Anthony Davis should prove unstoppable against a small Phoenix lineup minus Len. Phoenix has surrendered at least 107 points in four of its last six games.

Both teams have playoff incentive. Miami is favored because its home and Chicago is playing without rest.
But the Bulls are the better team and could have their starting lineup intact again if Derrick Rose plays as expected. Rose got some rust off last night, but the Bulls lost to Orlando. That was their third consecutive road loss. They are 0-2 on this road swing, which concludes with this matchup.
Chicago hasn't lost four road games in a row all season. The Bulls desperately don't want to go 0-3 on this road trip either. The Bulls' starting lineup is trying to get back in sync. Chicago is 15-5 when it's regular starters have opened the game.
The Bulls are playing for the second consecutive night. However, they just had a short trip from Central Florida to South Florida and were idle on Monday and Tuesday. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. Rose's minutes may be limited, but Miami is far more banged-up.
Several Miami players are battling illness, including Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. They may not play. In addition, several other key Miami players aren't 100 percent including Hassan Whiteside (hand) and Luol Deng (knee). Remember, Chris Bosh is out for the season. You know Miami is a MASH unit when Dwayne Wade could be their healthiest player right now.
The Heat are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Miami is only 1-4 in its last five games failing to cover the spread in any of those contests. Chicago is 12-5 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game.
The Bulls should be embarrassed about losing to lowly Orlando. They have the defensive intensity to take advantage of Miami's weak offense. Only two teams average fewer points per game than Miami.
The Heat are going to need to hit their perimeter shots with defensive ace Joakim Noah patrolling the middle for Chicago. Miami, though, is averaging only 18 percent from beyond the arc in its last three games and has missed 30 of 35 shots from 3-point range in their two matchups this season versus the Bulls, who rank fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage.
 

Minnesota has a cluster injury problem. The plus to that, though, is the Timberwolves have motivated youngsters playing for their futures with fresh legs. They also have probable Rookie-of-the-Year Andrew Wiggins, who has scored 20 or more points in seven of his last eight games, and veteran sharpshooter Kevin Martin, who scored 37 points last night.
The Trail Blazers are enduring a crazy traveling scheduling brought on by a make-up game at Brooklyn this past Monday. The Trail Blazers had to make the long trip to the East Coast and immediately fly back to the West Coast. They have a far more crucial game on deck Thursday night against the Warriors in Golden State. This marks their fourth game in six days.
 I expect the Trail Blazers to have all hands on deck except of course for injured Wesley Matthews. But Portland has a weak bench and no reason to have their starters log major minutes.
The Timberwolves are the worst defensive team in the NBA although their porous defense may improve as their inexperienced players keep learning to play together. Portland, however, hasn't been great defensively either ranking 20th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break.
It's hard to believe, but the Timberwolves held the Trail Blazers to their lowest-scoring game of the season in a 90-82 victory. Minnesota has defeated Portland in two of its three meetings this season. The Trail Blazers have defeated the Timberwolves at home six consecutive. The winning margin in those games is 12 points, much lower than this point spread.

This is a big game for both teams, but the situation is ripe for Memphis.
The Grizzlies have been idle since Saturday. They've had all this time to reflect on a bad 92-83 home loss to the Wizards in their last game. The Grizzlies have been preparing hard for this matchup. They consider it a playoff game. Memphis has some banged-up players, but the extra time off between games should help.  
New Orleans is in a dogfight with Oklahoma City for the last Western Conference playoff spot. Right now the Pelicans are there at the No. 8 and final seed after an emotional 103-100 victory against the Warriors last night. The Pelicans' best players are fragile. Memphis could be the most physical team in the NBA.
It's the fourth game in six days for New Orleans and second in two nights. The Pelicans have played without rest twice since March 20 and lost by 16 points to the Warriors and by nine to the Trail Blazers in those games, both of which were on the road. The last time the Pelicans played at Memphis was back in November when they lost 93-81. New Orleans is 2-5 ATS the last seven times it has played a foe with a winning record.
The Grizzlies are in their own battle for playoff seeding. Following this game, the Grizzlies embark on a three-game road swing playing the Jazz, Clippers and Warriors. That's not going to be easy so they desperately need to win this home game.

The perception is the Hawks are going to roll over for the Nets. That's not going to be the case here.
The Hawks are vastly better than Brooklyn even not having Paul Millsap for this game. Atlanta is 3-0 this season versus the Nets winning those matchups by a combined 66 points, an average victory margin of 22 points.  
Atlanta has a strong bench and wants to establish a good rhythm going into the playoffs. Losing doesn't foster that. The Hawks blew out the Suns last night. None of Atlanta's players logged more than 27 minutes.
Another reason why the Hawks don't want to lose in this spot is they have the right to swap draft picks with the Nets. They would do that if the Nets missed the playoffs. So the Hawks can hurt Brooklyn's playoff chances with a victory. That might have factored when Atlanta hammered the Nets, 131-99, this past Saturday.
 

These two teams just met this past Sunday and the Clippers blew out the Lakers, 106-78. That game opened as low as Clippers minus 11 1/2. Now look at where the point spread is.
The Clippers enjoy blowing out their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers six straight times and they know they can win this game just by showing up.
The Clippers won't play again until Saturday. That's three straight days off, which is extremely rare this late in the season. So I see the Clippers being overconfident while also not being fully focused thinking ahead of how to spend their upcoming free time.
The Lakers are going to play hard here off Sunday night's embarrassment. This is what point guard Jeremy Lin said following that 28-point loss to the Clippers, "What happened tonight (Sunday) is definitely not a good feeling, so we want to make sure that doesn't happen again on Tuesday."
The Lakers are 11-3-1 (78%) ATS in their past 15 games following a loss. They have covered 63 percent during the past 20 times they've been an underdog.
Shooting guard Jamal Crawford is expected to play for the Clippers after missing the last 17 games with a calf injury. Crawford is an instant offensive player off the bench, but he figures to be rusty here. So his appearance would be a plus for the Lakers since he's a gunner and would take a lot of shots.
One of the keys to the Clippers blowing out the Lakers this past Sunday was they controlled point guard Jordan Clarkson holding him to two points and three assists in 26 minutes. Clarkson struggled versus the Clippers' pressure and seemed taken aback whenever Clippers' big men DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin jumped out to double team him.
Clarkson has had a strong rookie year. Look for him to handle the Clippers much better after studying film and knowing what he's going to be facing. He won't be taken by surprise the second time around. Clarkson is the key cog for the Lakers.
Keep in mind, too, that although the Clippers are the home team this is the Lakers' home-court, too.

First it should be pointed out this isn't a true home game for the Lakers since both teams play at Staples Center.
The Lakers have run out of gas. LA is full of inexperience and lacks talent aside from promising point guard Jordan Clarkson. They need an all-out effort to keep within point spread range.
The Clippers aren't going to allow that to happen. They love to bury the Lakers having won the last five meetings by an average of 27.8 points per game. They are 2-0 versus the Lakers this season with a winning margin of 16 points per game.
The Clippers have their offense rolling with Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin all playing at high levels. They are averaging 113.7 points in their last nine games. The Lakers can't stop them defensively ranking 28th in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage.
The Lakers are 0-2 this month. Both of their defeats were bad losses at home - by 21 points to the Pelicans and by 30 points to the Trail Blazers this past Friday.
The Lakers actually don't want to win. That's because they hold the fourth-worst record in the NBA. If they do not finish with one of the five worst records they would lose their top pick this year to the 76ers because it's not top-five protected.

All the attention and focus for this matchup is on New Orleans. The Pelicans have won three in a row and are battling hard with Oklahoma City for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Pelicans have blown out their last three opponents, including the Kings last Friday at home, 102-88. Not much is being said about the Kings because they are a lottery team and have lost three in a row. The Kings also will be missing Rudy Gay, their only other star besides DeMarcus Cousins.
But there are some beneath the radar factors that point to Sacramento as being the right side here.
The Kings' last two road defeats were to the Grizzlies and Rockets. Certainly no shame in losing to those Western Conference powers. Those two teams are especially strong playing at home. The Kings played the Rockets extremely tough despite not having Gay, losing 115-111, two nights ago. Sacramento leads the NBA in free throw attempts, but shot nine fewer free throws than the Rockets did.
Sacramento has won its last four home games. The Kings fit the standard category of being much stronger at home than on the road. They have recent revenge, too, having gotten blown out at New Orleans just seven days ago. Even with that loss, the Kings still have defeated New Orleans in four of the last six meetings. The Pelicans have a bad history in Sacramento going 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 visits.
This is the Kings' first home game since March 24. More evidence than a strong effort should be forthcoming.
The Pelicans, by contrast, are in a flat spot. They just buried the Kings a week ago and then they buried the hapless Lakers in their last game this past Wednesday. Following this matchup, the Pelicans are at the Trail Blazers on Saturday. That's followed by a home contest for them against the Warriors and a road game versus the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Those are all far more challenging games and the Pelicans, a youthful bunch lacking veteran savvy, can't help but be looking ahead.
Anthony Davis is a monster. But so is Cousins. This is the rare time where Davis can have his points and outstanding all-around play matched by a fellow big man.

The Bulls are in the hunt for the No. 2 playoff seed in the East. The Bucks are trying to hold on for a playoff spot. Not only is there a major class difference between these two teams, but the Bulls are in much better current form.
Aided by the recent return of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, Chicago has won and covered five of its last six. The Bulls are averaging 104.5 points during their last six games while giving up an average of 92.3 points a game during this span.
Milwaukee has dropped eight of its last 10. That mark would be 1-9 if not for Khris Middleton long 3-pointer at the buzzer to nip Miami by one point at home during this time frame. The Bucks are giving up nearly 104 points during their last seven games. They don't have the offense to make up for a defense that has sprung leaks.
Chicago has been idle since Saturday. So the Bulls should be rested and well prepared. The Bulls have dominated the Bucks in Milwaukee winning the past nine times there.
The Bulls are 3-0 against the Bucks this season winning by an average margin of 8.3 points.  

Frank Vogel is one of the more underrated coaches in the NBA. The Pacers have always been strong defensively under Vogel. They rank fifth this season in giving up the fewest points per game and are fourth in defensive field goal percentage.
But when these teams met just 10 days ago at Indianapolis the Nets won, 123-111, by making 61.3 percent of their shots from the floor. That was the highest percentage the Pacers have ever allowed at home during their history, which goes back to their crazy American Basketball Association days.
Vogel has stressed nothing but defense since the Pacers last played two days ago. This should be an intense matchup anyways with the final playoff spot in the East on the line along with a tiebreaker between the teams.
These are two defensive clubs whose offenses have been overachieving lately. I see a correction happening in this matchup.
The Nets have scored 107 and 106 points, respectively, during their last two games going against the Lakers and Cavaliers. The Lakers rank third-from-last in defense. The Nets ambushed the Cavaliers, who were at the end of a three-game road trip and had just beat physical Memphis by 22 points.  
During their previous two games, though, the Nets put up 91 points each against the Hornets and Celtics, two Eastern Conference clubs similar to the Pacers fighting for a playoff spot. That's more indicative of Brooklyn's offense. The Nets rank 23rd offensively, are a below average free throw shooting team and rank 28th in 3-point percentage.
The Pacers have broken triple digits in their last five games. I don't see that continuing. They rank 24th offensively. Prior to their triple digit streak, they had failed to reach 99 points in nine of their last 12 games.
Indiana could catch a break, too, and not face Deron Williams. He's ill and missed Monday's practice.

Utah's defense has slipped. The Jazz are allowing an average of 98 points in regulation during their last five games.
The Timberwolves are much better offensively than defensively. They rank in the top 10 in free throw percentage.  Minnesota is averaging 106 points per game in its last four games at Target Center.
The Timberwolves' offense could get a boost if Ricky Rubio can play after missing the past six games.
Utah's front line could get a boost if Derrick Favors is able to play after missing last game with back spasms. No team gives up more points in the paint than Minnesota.
The Timberwolves also rank last in defensive scoring and defensive field goal percentage. They are fourth from last in 3-point defensive field goal percentage so Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke should be in line for big games. Minnesota has permitted triple digits in 14 of its last 16 games.
This is the fourth meeting between these two teams. Each of the previous three went above this total.

These teams are more about defense than offense. Both are digging hard to make the playoffs so I'm expecting an intense matchup with a lot of defensive emphasis.
The line is higher than it should be because of the oddsmaker factoring in the Hornets' 115-100 win against the Hawks two days ago. The Hawks, though, rested their starters and both teams shot uncommonly well. So that result is highly misleading.
The Hornets are not strong from the perimeter. That hasn't been cured with the return of Kemba Walker, who has made just 32.6 percent of his shots from the field since coming back 10 games ago following knee surgery.
The under has cashed in five of Boston's last six road games. The last five played in Charlotte during this series have gone under as well.

This is the Suns' season if they want to make the playoffs. Oklahoma City won't have the desperation Phoenix does with a 2 1/2-game lead on the Pelicans and three-game lead on the Suns for the final playoff spot in the West.
The Thunder have multiple injuries with Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison all out. They don't defend nearly as well minus Ibaka and are 1-7 in their last eight road contests, including losing the past four. The only road win they have during this span was against the hapless Lakers.
Oklahoma City also has failed to cover 16 of the last 22 times when on the road against a foe with a winning home mark.
Russell Westbrook is putting up insane numbers - but at the expense of his teammates. Unlike other superstars such as LeBron James, Westbrook doesn't make his supporting cast better.
The Suns play on the road at Portland and Golden State in their next two games following this one. They are going to be underdogs in those contests making this a must-win spot. The Suns have beaten the Thunder the past three times at home.
It would be an added plus if the Suns get back Brandon Knight.

First off, this isn't a fade on San Antonio. The Spurs are making their move playing their best basketball with Kawhi Leonard healthy and Tony Parker at long last stepping up his game.
My handicap is entirely based on the Grizzlies meeting this challenge, getting what I see as an overly generous amount of points.
Memphis has gotten blown out in its last two games by the Warriors and Cavaliers. I rank those as the two best teams in the NBA right now. The Grizzlies aren't in that highest of tiers. But they are an elite team and at the very next level with San Antonio.
The Grizzlies have surrendered 111 and 107 points during those losses to Golden State and Cleveland. They still rank No. 2 in scoring defense. Memphis hasn't allowed three consecutive triple-digit games in regulation all season. This is a stop-the-pain game for them with their pride on the line.
Memphis has proven itself before versus upper tier opponents going 7-2-1 ATS the past 10 times facing foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Grizzlies hold the No. 2 seed in the West, but just by one-half game over Houston. The urgency factor for Memphis can't be underestimated.  
The Grizzlies host Sacramento, which has lost 11 of its last 14 road games, on Monday. That should be a Memphis victory. The Grizzlies then won't play again until Friday. This is the game they need for their self-respect. Their defense and an inflated point spread put me on them in this spot.

Open the season with 17 straight losses and you're marked as a terrible team. That's the case with Philadelphia.
The 76ers rank as among the worst teams in the NBA. But they are better than perceived, have under-the-radar talent and lately have been proving to be a money-maker covering eight of their last 13 games. They also are 4-0 ATS the last four times taking 15 or more points.
Philly is a respectable 5-6 straight-up in its last 11 games. Now I realize those victories came against the Hawks, who were resting three starters, and versus four other opponents with a combined winning percentage of less than .400.
But do realize, too, the 76ers are much improved. Nerlens Noel is making a late challenge for rookie of the year honors. He's averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds per game during his last five games. Another rookie, Jerami Grant, has been displaying  potential lately and Robert Covington can be a capable scorer.
The 76ers, unlike many veteran teams, have fresh legs at this late stage of the season because of their extreme youth. Before getting blown out by the Clippers at home, 119-98, on Friday night the 76ers had held their previous five foes to an average of 91.4 points per game.
Talking perception again. The 76ers aren't perceived as being a prideful team - just a rebuilding lottery squad. Yet they are 13-3 ATS the last 16 times following a double-digit defeat. I see them playing hard here following that bad home loss. They want to do their best against LeBron James.
This is an awkward scheduling spot for the Cavaliers. This is their first game back from a three-game road trip. Cleveland's next game isn't until Thursday. So focus could be a problem for the Cavaliers.
Yes, the Cavaliers can beat the 76ers just by showing up with their huge talent edge. But covering this big of a spread is a different matter. The 76ers haven't been this big of underdogs in nearly two months. They are a different team since then.

The Nuggets are a much improved team since Melvin Hunt replaced clueless Brian Shaw. Denver is 8-6 under Hunt and can prove dangerous in the right spot.
This is a good spot for the Nuggets.
Both Denver and Portland are off excellent victories last night. But the Trail Blazers carry a much higher fatigue rating. This marks their fourth game in five days and first home game following consecutive road wins against the Jazz and Suns.
Portland has a weak bench - made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews - and plays again on Monday at home against Phoenix while the Nuggets won't play again until Wednesday. That should ensure an all-out effort by the Nuggets.
Yes, motivation can be a factor for non-playoff teams such as Denver, but the Nuggets have triple revenge incentive. They are a much different team now than the previous three times the Trail Blazers played and defeated them.
Ty Lawson must play well for the Nuggets to be competitive. There are strong indications that is going to happen. Lawson has been performing well putting up 18 points and nine assists in an easy victory against the Jazz Friday night. This is what Hunt said about Lawson following that win, "The kid is playing some of the best basketball I've seen him play. That speed is special. It's a special weapon."
Lawson may be the quickest point guard in the NBA. He's caused Portland problems in the past averaging 24.7 points and nine assists in the first three meetings. Portland has an excellent point guard, too, in Damian Lillard. But Lillard has logged major minutes this season and the four games in five days factor could affect him a great deal against Lawson.
Under Hunt, the Nuggets have gone 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a straight-up victory. They also have covered in five of their last seven road matchups.

Golden State is averaging 112.6 points per game in its last six games and now Klay Thompson has regained his shooting touch.
The over has cashed in seven of the Warriors' last nine games.
The Bucks just faced four defensive-minded Eastern Conference teams - the Pacers, Heat, Cavaliers and Nets. Now they go up-tempo against a Western Conference club. The last time the Bucks played an elite Western Conference team they lost 114-103 to San Antonio at home five games ago.

Utah's defense has slipped. The Jazz are giving up 101.3 points per game during their last three games.

The Nuggets can be unpredictable on offense, but they are committed now to playing at a faster tempo. Defensively, the Nuggets rank 27th giving up an average of 103.8 points per game.

Gordon Hayward was healthy during the shoot around and is expected to play for the Jazz, which is a huge boost to their offense.

I can't see San Antonio losing for the second time in three nights to Dallas.
The big question is can the Spurs cover this high number? I believe they can based on how well they've been playing - especially at home - and given Dallas' current road woes.
The Mavericks are 1-5 in their last six road contests with the lone victory coming against the Lakers, who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. During this span, four of Dallas' road losses have come by 15 or more points.
Dallas has failed to cover in its last six road matchups and last won at San Antonio during the regular season in 2010, a span of eight consecutive defeats. The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus foes with a winning home mark.
Kawhi Leonard is healthy and Tony Parker finally is playing better. Those factors have helped turn the Spurs back into being an elite force. They are 9-1 in their last 10 home games, 7-3 ATS, with the only loss coming to the red-hot Cavaliers when Kyrie Irving went off for 57 points.
The Spurs followed up their loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday night with a smashing 130-91 victory over Oklahoma City two nights ago. Gregg Popovich is stepping on the gas. I don't see the Spurs regressing here.   

Detroit has scored at least 105 points in four of its last five games. This scoring burst has coincided with Greg Monroe being out. Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Andre Drummond have all been thriving offensively since Monroe went out.

Orlando's defense has gone back downhill. Orlando is giving up an average of 109.6 points during its last six games. The Magic's offense received a boost, though, with Tobias Harris back. 

The over has cashed in six of Orlando's last seven home games.

Both teams were playing better defense when they met two weeks ago in Indiana. The Pacers won that meeting, 109-103, in overtime. But if you discount the overtime, there were 192 points scored in regulation, which went above the 188 closing over/under.
Fast forward and now the teams meet again with a slightly lower total listed. Yet, neither club is in good defensive form. The Pacers are giving up an average of 108.1 points per game in their last six games.
The Bucks held Miami to 88 points in their last game, but during their previous three games surrendered an average of 107.6 points a game.
Both teams have strong benches. Milwaukee's reserves should score more with O.J. Mayo back healthy and the likely possibility that Jared Dudley also will return beginning with this game.
This game is in the near pick range so overtime remains more of a possibility just like when they last met.