First off, these are two outstanding defensive teams. Cleveland gave up the fourth-fewest points per game in the NBA while the Hawks ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and was the top-ranked defensive team since the All-Star break. 
The Hawks held Boston to an average of 89 points per game in regulation during their last three games of their first-round series. The Celtics are a higher-scoring team than the Cavaliers. The under has now cashed in seven of Atlanta's past eight games. 
Atlanta should be super fired-up to set a tough defensive tone having been swept by the Cavaliers in the playoffs last season. The Hawks are improved defensively this season, know the Cavaliers and LeBron James much better and have their confidence up after defeating the Celtics by winning Game 6 in Boston, a very difficult venue. 
Then there is the rust factor - and it should prove huge. Atlanta last played on Thursday while Cleveland will be in action for the first time in eight days. The under has cashed five of the past six times when the Cavaliers haven't played in three or more days. 

A mere 12 hours after dispatching the Chris Paul and Blake Griffin-less Clippers in six games, the Trail Blazers left for the Bay Area to meet Golden State for this Sunday matinee. 
The Warriors are an outstanding team even without injured Stephen Curry. But they also have a nice scheduling edge here, too. Golden State has been idle since Wednesday. Once word came out that Paul and Griffin were out it was a foregone conclusion that Portland would win its first round series. So the rested Warriors should be well prepared for the Trail Blazers. 
Not only do the Warriors have a sense of urgency to play well at home knowing that Curry is likely out at least the next three games, but they won't be taking the underdog Trail Blazers for granted. That's because Portland dealt Golden State its worst loss of the season, 137-105, on Feb. 19 in Portland. It was quite a different story when the teams last met. The Warriors beat the Trail Blazers, 136-111, at Oracle Arena on April 3. 
The Warriors also hosted the Trail Blazers on March 11 and won, 128-112. Portland does not have a good history on the road against the Warriors failing to cover in 21 of its past 28 visits. 
Golden State is tough to game plan against even without Curry because of its versatility and multi-dimensional players. The Warriors, right now, can stake their claim to being among the greatest teams in NBA history. I think Portland's Terry Stotts is one of the more underrated coaches, but he's pressed for time to properly game plan for the Warriors because of the short time span after his team finished off the Clippers. He and his staff had to fully concentrate on getting past the Clippers.  

No Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin. No chance for the Clippers. We know this. They know this. But the Clippers still have enough pride and talent to not go gently into the night against one of the weaker and more inexperienced playoff teams.
We also know the Clippers don't perform well under playoff pressure. The Clippers blew a seven-point against the Thunder in the final minute of their Game 5 Western Conference semifinal game to lose that series two seasons ago and last season blew a three-to-one game series lead against the Rockets. 
But now the pressure is on Portland not the Clippers. Nothing is expected of the Clippers with Paul and Griffin out. So I'm expecting the Clippers to actually step up. 
This is what Clippers coach Doc Rivers was quoted as saying, "I think now that we know what to expect, you'll see a much better game for a full game. We win Game 6, it's right back to our momentum. ... We're still focused and ready to go." 
Usually I don't put much stock in what a coach says. But this quote rings true. 
The Trail Blazers have a lot of youth. They are inexperienced in big games and have a poor recent playoff history especially in a favorite's role. The Clippers still have talent and pride with DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford and Paul Pierce. These guys aren't exactly stiffs. 

Charlotte has won three in a row. The Hornets are playing far better right now than the Heat. Charlotte has confidence and is the fresher, deeper team. The Hornets also have home-court advantage and a chip on their shoulder, a hungry bunch determined to earn respect and attention, which they haven't gotten yet. This is their chance - and everything lines up in their favor, including a fair price in which to back them. 
The Heat are showing their age. They are averaging only 84.3 points during their last three games while shooting less than 39 percent from the floor. Dwayne Wade doesn't have it anymore at 34. Neither does Joe Johnson and Luol Deng. Goran Dragic isn't playing as well as he did earlier and Hassan Whiteside can't be counted on to score in the paint. Miami's bench isn't as good as Charlotte's either. Nicolas Batum is back, too, for the Hornets providing a further boost. 
The Heat have failed to cover in eight of their last nine road games. They have lost in five of their last six road games at Charlotte.
The Hornets have won 32 of their 43 home games this season. This is their moment. 

The last three games in this series have all gone under. Miami hasn't broken 90 points during these past three games. The result is the lowest opening total of the series - down some nine points from the closing Game 1 total. 
It's time for a bounce back. I see it happening here in this Game 6 do-or-die spot for the Heat. 
Miami averaged 119 points while shooting 57.8 percent from the field during the first two games of the series. That definitely was too high. A correction was bound to happen - and it did with Miami averaging 84.3 points and 38.6 shooting during the next three games. Those scoring and shooting marks are definitely too low. It's time for another correction. 
So I see the Heat putting up a scoring mark somewhere in the middle from their first two games compared to their past three games. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra wants his team to play loose and free flowing. The Heat have played tight with their frustrations spilling out. Miami averaged 100 points during the regular season. The Heat have too many pros and good shooters to be kept under 90 points for a fourth straight game. 
Charlotte should put up a good number of points, too, with Nicolas Batum having played 25 minutes in Game 5 after returning from an ankle injury. The Hornets were the No. 11 scoring team in the NBA averaging 103.4 points. The Hornets ranked fifth in free throw percentage and have shot even better from the free throw line during the series.  

Boston has a strong home-court. Granted. But the Hawks are the better - and healthier - team. That matters the most here. 
Atlanta has built up a lead as high as 15 points in four of the five games in this series. The Hawks are coming off a confident-building, 110-83, burial of the Celtics this past Tuesday at home. 
The Hawks have accomplished their 3-2 series lead with All-Star Al Horford, perhaps their best player, struggling missing 21 of 29 shots from the floor in the last three games. Horford is averaging 6.3 points, half his season average. It's a plus if Horford can get back to his normal performance. 
Unlike Atlanta, Boston isn't healthy. Avery Bradley, the Celtics' No. 2 leading scorer and perhaps top defender, is out. Kelly Olynyk is bothered by a bad shoulder. Jae Crowder hasn't shaken the rust off since returning from a knee injury. Jared Sullinger is outclassed by Paul Millsap. But the biggest negative for the Celtics is Isaiah Thomas being hampered by a sprained ankle that he re-aggravated in the last game. 
The Celtics have been too dependent on Thomas. The Hawks have been the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference since the All-Star break and they clamped down on Thomas in their Game 5 victory double and triple-teaming him knowing the Celtics lack any other effective outside shooters. It's a big stretch to expect Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier to step up.
Brad Stevens is an outstanding coach. He's gotten as much out of the Celtics as possible. But he doesn't have the cards here especially with Thomas limited. The Hawks need to take care of business with the Cavaliers rested and waiting for this series to end. It's not too much to ask the Hawks to beat a crippled Celtics team, who are minus Bradley and have Thomas at less than 100 percent. 

Stephen Nover's NFL Draft Props

Usually you're paying high juice. But NFL draft props are beatable. The books are sitting ducks as updated - and key - information becomes available leading up to the event. 

I've always made money betting NFL props. I'm very confident the streak continues this year. 
Here are my 2016 NFL draft props: 
Will there be Over/Under 2 1/2 quarterbacks drafted in the first round? Go Over 2 1/2. The juice is exceptionally high on this one, but it's as close to a lock as you'll find with Jared Goff and Carson Wentz likely going first and second and Paxton Lynch possibly being a top-10 pick, too. There's even a chance a fourth quarterback could sneak into the first round such as Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg. Quarterback is the one position teams will reach on hoping to strike gold in the quarterback-driven NFL. 
Ohio State figures prominently in the draft. I'm involved in three props involving Ohio State players. They are:
Ezekiel Elliott Over/Under 8 1/2 on when he gets picked. Go Under 8 1/2. Elliott is the most complete running back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. It wouldn't shock me to see him go as high as No. 4 to the Cowboys. 
Darron Lee Over/Under 10 1/2 on when he gets picked. Go Over 10 1/2. I don't see him being among the top 15 players chosen. He's downgraded by his lack of size. 
Joey Bosa to be drafted ahead of Myles Jack. Bosa is the best pass rusher in the draft. He should be among the top five players selected. 
Myles Jack Over/Under 8 on when he gets picked. Go Over 8. Jack's stock has dropped because of concerns about his sore knee. He's out of the top 10 now and slipping. 
Over/Under 5 1/2 wide receivers/running backs go in the first round. Go Under 5 1/2. It's a weak year for wide receivers. There are no sure-fire wide receiver stars like in the past few years and Elliott is likely the lone running back to go in Round 1. The only wide receivers I see going in the first round are Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman and Josh Dotson. 

A lot changes with Stephen Curry out. The Warriors know they have to tighten their defense and change their style. Steve Kerr is a sharp enough coach and has the pieces to make the necessary adjustments with his team's versatility and depth. 
The under has been the way to go so far in the playoffs covering at a 72 percent rate. This total seems high, too, given that the Rockets and Warriors have combined to average 202.7 points per game during the first four games of the series with the Rockets breaking 97 points only once. 

I don't see upstart Charlotte beating the veteran Heat three straight times. Charlotte got back into the series by winning the last two - both at home.

Now the Hornets visit AmericanAirlines Arena. 
Here is Miami's history at home: The Heat have won and covered their last eight home games. Each win was by eight or more points. They are 13-0 at home during their past 13 first-round playoff games and 13-2 in their last 15 home postseason contests. The two losses during this span were to San Antonio. 
Now here is Charlotte's history on the road and in the playoffs: The Hornets are 2-19 in their last 21 games at Miami. This includes losses in Game 1 and Game 2 of this series by a combined 44 points. The Hornets are 0-9 in their last nine playoff games. 
The Hornets got back into the series by taking advantage of their homecourt and clamping down defensively defeating Miami, 96-80 and 89-85, the past two games. The savvy, veteran-laden Heat are picking their spots. Now is their chance.  
Charlotte has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times following a victory. The Hornets have surrendered an average of 112 points to the Heat in four games at AmericanAirlines Arena this season. 
Miami committed the fourth-fewest fouls in the league during the regular season. Yet the Heat have been whistled for 18 more fouls than Charlotte. I don't see the Hornets getting the benefit of their flops on the road. The Hornets have shot 28 more free throws than Miami in the series, connecting on 82.8 percent from the line. The league has to be aware of that discrepancy. The Hornets are an excellent free throw shooting team, but they aren't that good averaging 79 percent from the line during the regular season.  
The Hornets, to their credit, won these past two games minus injured Nicolas Batum. He's a game-time decision because of an ankle injury. If Batum remains out it's a plus for the Heat. Batum is one of Charlotte's three best players. But even if Batum plays, he could be rusty and could disrupt Charlotte's rhythm. 

The first four games of this series have all gone under. The highest combined score between the two teams was 190 points in Game 1. So why buck the odds and go over for this Game 5? 

Many reasons. Let's start with this being the lowest opening over/under of the series. Then we have the Pacers rediscovering their offensive rhythm in the last game scoring 100 points. Paul George continues to be a monster averaging 26.3 points a game in the series, but point guard George Hill stepped up and Pacers coach Frank Vogel opened up the floor more by pairing energetic Myles Turner with Ian Mahinmi, who looked great. 
The Raptors entered the playoffs reaching triple digits in 13 of their last 14 home games. However, they are averaging only 93 points per game in the series. That's what happens when Toronto's two stars - Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan - are shooting just 32.2 percent and 29.6 percent, respectively, from the floor. Those two haven't suddenly forgotten how to shoot and Indiana's defensive isn't that stellar. I'm looking for a strong rebound from those two. They are long overdue.  
Toronto has gotten double-digit inside scoring from 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas in all but one of the games during the series. DeMarre Carroll is starting to play much better, too, for the Raptors. Carroll is an excellent defender, but his scoring has picked up. He's averaging just under 15 points during the past two games.

Down 3-1 to the Thunder, I don't see the Mavericks' proud veterans mailing in this game. Dirk Nowitzki and Co. have a lot of pride and are much better coached under Rick Carlisle than Oklahoma City is under rookie NBA coach Billy Donovan. 

Wesley Matthews has done an excellent job keeping a frustrated Kevin Durant in check. I'm sure the Mavericks didn't appreciate Durant conking Justin Anderson on the head during the final minute of the Thunder's 119-108 Game 4 victory this past Saturday. 
The point spread is so large because the Mavericks' point guards can't match Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City has a huge rebounding edge. But Enes Kanter and Steven Adams - although coming off strong performances - are not exactly All-Stars. The bar isn't set that high for Dallas to hang in. 
Oklahoma City does have better depth, but the Mavericks will have had two full days off to rest and game plan. Dallas has covered in nine of its last 12 road games. The Mavericks have proven tough, too, when going against upper tier opponents covering seven of the past nine times versus foes with a home winning percentage above .600.
The Thunder has lost 15 times when leading in the fourth quarter. A lot of that is on Donovan, who gets outcoached. Oklahoma City is a mediocre 6-6 straight-up in its last 12 games. The Mavericks also have a strong history when playing in Oklahoma City covering 71 percent of the time there during their past 29 road trips. 
 

Things are back to normal for Golden State with the return of Stephen Curry. That means a high-scoring game. 
The Warriors lead the NBA in points per game at 115. They also finished No. 1 in two-point and 3-point shooting. Only four times in their past 44 games have the Warriors not scored triple digits.
The Rockets rank 25th defensively. Houston has surrendered triple digits during 80 percent of its last 40 games. 
The Rockets ranked fourth in scoring, though. If you discount their Game 1 performance versus the Warriors, the Rockets are averaging 116 points in their last six games. 

I expect Stephen Curry to play - and play well. He has recovered from his sprained ankle. The Warriors are due for a good shooting game. They averaged an NBA-best 48.7 percent from the floor during the regular season, but have shot just 42.9 percent in Game 1 and 43 percent in Game 3. Houston is not a strong defensive club. Only five clubs gave up more points per game than the Rockets.

The Warriors received their wake-up call and the Rockets got their measure of respect during Thursday night's 97-96 Houston victory. Despite that loss, Golden State still has defeated Houston 14 of the past 16 times. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS following a victory. 

No home-court isn't going to matter. Neither is better execution. The crippled Grizzlies are simply totally overmatched by the Spurs. It's not a fluke San Antonio has held the Grizzlies to an average of 71 points in jumping out to a 2-0 series lead. The Spurs are one of the greatest defensive teams ever. 

San Antonio's average win in the series is by 29 points. So I'm surprised this line opened so short. The Grizzlies, down their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - can't compete inside nor outside. They are shooting less than 36 percent from the floor during the series. Memphis is down to using Jordan Farmar and Xavier Munford as its point guards. Those two are a combined 10-of-26 from the field.
The Spurs' bench is easily better than the Grizzlies' starters outscoring them by an average of 16 points. Zach Randolph is the only decent Grizzlies' player still standing and he's totally frustrated shooting 26.7 percent in the series while averaging a puny 8.5 points a game. 
It was easy to see this coming as the Grizzlies are 1-12 in their last 13 games, including losing their past six games. The Spurs have whipped the Grizzlies seven consecutive times, winning the last two in Memphis by an average of 17 points. All together, San Antonio has covered seven of its last nine in Memphis. 
The Spurs have destroyed the Grizzlies despite playing sloppy at times. Don't look for the veteran Spurs to screw around here. They're looking for a sweep and are not going to let up. There is nothing the Grizzlies can do about it given their multiple injuries. They know that. They did well to make the postseason. 

Paul George can't play any better. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan can't play any worse going a combined 17-for-63 shooting from the floor for 27 percent. 
Yet this Eastern Conference series is tied 1-1 after the Raptors got their confidence back and halted their playoff woes with a 98-87 victory this past Monday. 
The Raptors had lost seven playoff games in a row prior to that win, including Game 1 at home. Toronto was under a lot of pressure in that opening home playoff game, being the higher seed and with that playoff losing streak hanging above its head. Now that the Raptors have excised their playoff demons, I'm expecting another big performance.
There are reasons for this. Toronto tied for the best road record in the Eastern Conference at 24-17. The Raptors have covered eight of the last nine times at Indiana, too. 
Even if George maintains his elite play, the rest of the Pacers aren't good enough to keep up. Toronto has outrebounded Indiana, 96-71, and outscored the Pacers by 32 points in the paint. Center Jonas Valanciunas has been dominant stepping up to average 17.5 points and 17 rebounds per game in the series. Indiana starter center Ian Mahinmi is bothered by a lower back injury and is questionable for today's game. 
All-Stars Lowry and DeRozan are too good to keep shooting this bad. They're due. Defensive ace DeMarre Carroll is working his way back from a knee injury. He's improving with each outing. This will be his sixth game since returning to the lineup. It's an added bonus if he can slow down George. 
This is a case of laying a nickel higher juice to get the superior Raptors at a pick price with their stars overdue for a big game and their frontcourt dominance well established. 

Boston and Atlanta put up a combined 203 points in the Hawks' 102-101 Game 1 victory this past Saturday. Those teams reached that figure despite missing 116 field goal attempts and going 16-for-62 from 3-point range. The Celtics shot just 23.1 percent in the first half and didn't score a single fast-break basket. 

The feeling out process is over now. I see both teams shooting better especially Boston, which got its offense going in the second half scoring 67 points while putting up 15 fast-break points although shooting only 19 free throws for the entire game. Considering the pace of the opening game, there should have been at least 25 more points scored. That would push this total easily over if the teams just have a normal, or even slightly-below normal shooting game. The Hawks shot less than 39 percent from the floor during the final three quarters. 
The Celtics will be without Avery Bradley, their second-leading scorer behind underrated stud Isaiah Thomas. He's out with a hamstring injury. Bradley's absence, though, will hurt the Celtics more on the defensive end. He probably is the team's best defender and his being out means the Celtics will field a smaller, quicker lineup. Again, a plus for the over. 

This isn't your normal No. 1 versus No. 8 seed matchup. Cleveland has the big names - LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love - but the talent gap between these two clubs isn't as large as perceived. 
Detroit has the best big man on the floor, Andre Drummond, and has the athletic and tall forwards who can bother James with Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson. At point guard, Reggie Jackson has more playoff experience than Irving. 
The Pistons won three of their four meetings against Cleveland this season. They should be loose having last made the playoffs six seasons ago. All the pressure is on the Cavaliers. 

Another big factor in Detroit's favor is the coaching matchup of Stan Van Gundy, who I consider one of the better coaches in the NBA, against inexperienced Tyronn Lue. The Cavaliers were 30-11 under David Blatt and 27-14 under Lue. The Cavaliers lost straight-up eight times when favored by seven or more points under Lue. 

Atlanta is underrated defensively. The Hawks were No. 1 defensively following the All-Star break in surrendering the fewest points (96.8) per 100 possessions. They have the defense and preparation to effectively stop Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics' major offensive weapon. 
The Celtics are best at forcing turnovers and playing perimeter defense. Only three teams had a better 3-point defense than Boston. 
I'm expecting a feeling-out, typical playoff intense game here. The extra time off also is a plus for the under. 

Brad Stevens has gotten as much of his limited Celtics team as possible. The Celtics lack Atlanta's front-line talent - especially dealing with Al Horford and Paul Millsap - and lack the size to take advantage of the Hawks' rebounding weakness. 

The Hawks aren't as good as their 60-win team of a year ago, but they are better than their 48-win total shows. No team was stronger defensively than the Hawks following the All-Star break. The Hawks allowed just 96.8 points per 100 possessions during that span with San Antonio the next closest at 99.3.

Boston is much worse on the road. The Celtics have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 away matchups. 

 

It's easy to envision offense when thinking about Toronto because of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery. But only San Antonio and Utah surrendered fewer points per game than the Raptors. Indiana is no slouch defensively, either, ranking eighth in fewest points per game. 
Given the increased defensive intensity of the playoffs, an early start time and the rust of being idle since Wednesday - when both teams held out their best players to rest - I see the total going under here. 
These teams have a history of going under, too, when playing fellow Eastern Conference opponents. The under has cashed 13 of the last 19 times the Pacers have met an Eastern Conference foe while the under is 9-3 the last 12 times the Raptors have gone against an Eastern Conference opponent. That's a combined under trend of 21-9 (70%). 
The Raptors have the ace defender, DeMarre Carroll, to hold Pacers superstar Paul George in check. 

The Spurs have no incentive to win here and will be holding out their main players, including LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. 
In fact, if the Spurs lose they get a first-round playoff matchup against the crippled Grizzlies. That would suit the Spurs fine. 
Dallas is playing well down the stretch with seven wins in its last eight games. If the Mavericks win they could move up to the No. 5 seed in the West so they have motivation. The Mavericks, full of prideful veterans, certainly don't want to lose at home to San Antonio's reserves. 

Phoenix actually is playing well winning back-to-back road games and covering four of its last five. 
The Suns have double revenge motivation having been blown out in their last two games against the Kings - both in Sacramento. 
The spot sets up well for the Suns. The Kings are off an emotional and highly satisfying 114-112 victory this past Saturday night against Oklahoma City. That was the Kings' final home game of the season and their last game ever at Sleep Train Arena as they will be playing in a new downtown arena next season. The Kings drew great crowd support in the victory against Oklahoma City.
I don't see the Kings having nearly the motivation as they go on their final road trip. All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins already has said he won't play on the road trip in order to rest his sore feet. Point guard Rajon Rondo, the Kings' second-best player, has missed missed three of the past four games and also may not play. The Kings' bench scoring is down, too, with Omri Casspi and Marco Belinelli both sidelined. 

Charlotte ranks eighth defensively. Only seven teams give up fewer points per game than the Hornets. If you discount the Cavaliers scoring 112 points on them, the Hornets are giving up an average of 93.1 points per game during their last six games. They've held their past three opponents to 97 or fewer points. 
The Hornets should maintain their defensive intensity for this matchup since they can still improve their playoff position. They'll also draw the Wizards likely missing star point guard John Wall. The Wizards aren't the same without Wall, who has missed the last two games with a sore knee. I would be stunned if Wall played since the Wizards were just eliminated from playoff contention. 
But what about the Wizards' defense? Will it be good enough to hold up their share in keeping this total under? 
A very early start time is a plus for the under. Neither team is used to playing at such an early hour. The Hornets have a strong recent history of going under when playing on Sunday. The over only has cashed once during Charlotte's past nine Sunday games. 
The Wizards had been a good defensive team ranking in the top 10 in defensive ratings each of the previous three season. However, this season they slipped. Still, they are a respectable 15th in ratings this season. The key to keeping the Hornets in check is limiting Kemba Walker. The Wizards have proven successful in this holding him to 17.4 points - four points under his season average - and 33.8 percent shooting from the floor in three games this season. Career-wise, Walker is shooting 28.8 percent against Washington. 
There are several pertinent under trends that line up, too. The under has cashed 75 percent of the time the past 21 times the Wizards have hosted an opponent with a losing road record. The Hornets and Wizards have gone under eight of the past 11 times they've met. 

At last look the Jazz were favored by a dozen points against the Clippers. No, Karl Malone and John Stockton haven't suddenly been transported in time. Doc Rivers has said he'll be resting Clipper starters. Blake Griffin didn't even make the trip. Hence, such an out of whack point spread. 
There also is a huge reduction in the total. In my view, the total has been lowered way too much.
The Clippers have averaged 105.5 points in their last 12 games. They have firepower on their bench and Utah could be less intense than normal defensively knowing the Clippers are sitting out starters. 
Utah is averaging 100 points in its last five games. The Clippers lose a lot defensively if DeAndre Jordan is one of the starters slated to sit by Rivers. The Jazz also are expected to have Alec Burks for the first time since he suffered a broken leg in December.
Burks' minutes will be limited, but his presence allows the Jazz an option of playing three wings and opens up the perimeter more for Gordon Hawyard and underrated Rodney Hood.  

We know the Nets are playing the string out. But let's be realistic about the Wizards, too. They are three games below .500 and 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East behind Detroit with five games remaining. 
The only consistency the Wizards have shown is an ability to be inconsistent. Lack of effort and low basketball IQ always are in play with the Wizards. This is their first home game since returning from a crucial - and unsuccessful - five-game West Coast trip. The last two times Washington played at Verizon Center it fell by 21 points to the Hawks and lost in double overtime to the Timberwolves. The loss to Minnesota likely doomed Washington to non-playoff status even before the five-game road swing.
I would be surprised if Randy Wittman - someone I regard as one of the weaker head coaches in the league - is back next season for Washington.
But what about the Nets? The bad news is no Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young, their two best players. Both have been shut down for the season. The oddsmaker is spooked by the Nets after seeing them get blown out by the decimated Pelicans, 106-87, two days ago. Bojan Bogdanovic, who may be Brooklyn's best player now, was rested that game and point guard Donald Sloan missed the game due to illness. Both should play against the Wizards. The loss of Lopez is somewhat mitigated in this matchup because the Wizards have gotten smaller this season.
The Nets have a bunch of young, unproven players drawing big minutes now. The pluses in that are fresh legs - important this late in the season - and the ability to play hard with futures up in the air. The Nets aren't tanking either since their prize lottery picks goes to Boston. The backdoor should be wide open, too, with the Wizards playing at the Pistons on Friday in their biggest game of what's left in their season.

Sure on paper, this low total seems right where it should be. San Antonio is the best defensive team in the NBA and Utah is giving up less than 89 points per game during its last 13 matchups. 
The reality, though, is these two teams should play much higher than this total. 
San Antonio has reached triple digits in five of its last six games. The Spurs have averaged 112.3 points in three games against Utah this season. Clearly, the Spurs know how to put up points against the Jazz.Yet the oddsmaker is calling for the Spurs to score around 94 points, which would be a whopping 18.3 points less than in the past three meetings. 
Now there's a chance the Spurs hold out starters here, or at least reduce their minutes. I'm fine with that, too, because that would ensure a looser flow plus San Antonio may have the strongest bench in the league.  
Utah's firepower isn't going to remind anyone of Golden State's, but the Jazz have some underrated scorers with Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood quickly coming to mind. 
The Jazz should be extremely fired-up, too, in a triple revenge situation and digging hard for a playoff spot. The Jazz don't play again until Friday so their starters should play big minutes. Utah is averaging 104.5 points during its last four games. 

After 54 consecutive regular-season home victories, the Warriors finally lost at Oracle Arena knocked off by the Celtics, 109-106, in their last game two nights ago. How will Golden State respond? I believe they respond in a big way with a blowout home victory against Portland, a team that dealt the Warriors their most lopsided loss of the season back in February.
Golden State hasn't dropped back-to-back games all season. The Warriors' average winning margin following each of their losses this season is 13.4 points. They are 19-9 ATS the past 28 times after a defeat. 
The Warriors don't play again until Tuesday when they host the lowly Timberwolves. So a full focused effort should be there. Golden State remains highly motivated to set the single-season wins record. The Warriors still haven't secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference either. The Warriors need to win five of their last six games to break the Bulls' 1995-96 record of 72 victories in a season.  
Portland is one of those tough-at-home, bad-on-the-road type teams. The Trail Blazers won their seventh straight home game defeating the Heat Saturday night. But have lost eight of their past nine road matchups. They are playing without rest, which is much rougher this late in the season.  
Golden State leads the NBA in scoring at 115 points per game. Portland has allowed an average of 118.9 points during its past nine away contests. The Trail Blazers don't have a good history either when playing at Golden State failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 visits. 
The Trail Blazers need their best player, Damian Lillard, to have a big game. Lillard, however, is in a slump shooting less than 30 percent from the floor during his last five games. Without a big game from Lillard, the Trail Blazers don't have nearly enough scoring to keep up with the Warriors. 

Minus Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, the Grizzlies aren't the elite defensive team of past seasons. They have allowed at least 100 points in 11 of their last 14 games and an average of 104.2 points during their past four games.
Memphis can score, though. If you discount an 87-point performance against San Antonio, the league's No. 1 defensive team, the Grizzlies are averaging 105 points during their past five games.  
Toronto has the offense to take advantage of the Grizzlies' less-than-stellar defense with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. They've helped Toronto reach triple digits in 16 of its last 17 games. 
The over is 15-6-1 in the Raptors' last 22 road games. The over also is 20-6-1 during the Grizzlies' past 27 home contests. 

Since Jan. 10, only Golden State and San Antonio own better home records than Portland's 16-3 mark. Not only do I believe the Trail Blazers are better than the Celtics, but they are home and in a better spot. 
This is Boston's third of five consecutive West Coast games. Brad Stevens has squeezed out all of Boston's talent - there just isn't that much - and the Celtics have been hitting a late season wall going 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road matchups with the lone cover coming against the 76ers. When stepping up on the road against foes with a winning home record, the Celtics are a terrible 2-12 ATS.
Boston's best player is guard Isaiah Thomas, but he's trumped by Portland's star backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Not only is Portland fighting for playoff seeding - with the possibility they might get edged out of the postseason - but they have revenge for an embarrassing 23-point loss earlier this month to Boston in which Lillard and McCollum did not shoot well. 
Portland is averaging 114.4 points during its last 10 home games and has won five in a row at Moda Center. The Trail Blazers are rested having been home for a week. They are 9-2 ATS when playing on two days rest. 

The Warriors are chasing the 1995-96 Bulls for best record in a season. They are far superior to Utah. The spread is low enough to back Golden State.
The line is low because Utah has won eight of its last 10, is trying to hold on to a playoff spot and the Warriors had to play last night beating Washington at home, 102-94. But those aren't strong enough reasons to not fade the Jazz.
Golden State also is playing well winning 12 of its last 13, including five in a row. The Warriors have covered 58 percent of their road games this season despite frequently laying inflated numbers. The Warriors also are 16-2 when playing without rest. Golden State has owned the series winning 10 of the last 11 versus Utah, covering six of the past eight. The Warriors are 3-0 this season against the Jazz with an average winning margin of 14 points.  
Utah can't stay with Golden State offensively ranking 28th in scoring at less than 98 points per game, which includes a 123-75 rout of the Lakers this past Monday. That was a season high in points for the Jazz and could be another reason why this line is lower than I anticipated. The Lakers, though, are pathetic and quit in that game. 
So the Jazz go from the worst to the best. Utah has played only one team that would make the playoffs right now - Oklahoma City - during its last seven games. In addition to playing the Lakers during this span, the Jazz also played the Suns, Bulls, Bucks and Timberwolves. Utah has failed to cover eight of the last nine times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The evidence is just not there for the Jazz to step up against the best team in basketball that has motivated and monster matchup edges.  

So when did the Utah Jazz turn into the Golden State Warriors? I haven't seen the Jazz laying this many points since the days of John Stockton and Karl Malone. 
The Lakers do have the second-worst record in the NBA and are playing the string out, but this spread is out of whack. It's the most points the Jazz have been favored by all season and just the second time they've been double-digit chalk. 
Utah is the second-lowest scoring team in the league averaging 97.5 points per game. The Lakers have scored 98 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. Prior to laying an egg at home last night to a desperate Wizards team, the Lakers had produced 105, 107 and 107 points during their previous three games. 
The Lakers have covered seven of the past nine times they've been double-digit 'dogs and are 6-2 ATS the last eight times they've been on the road versus a foe with a winning home mark. 
This isn't an optimal spot either for Utah. The Jazz just concluded a grueling five-game road trip that began on March 19 by beating Minnesota, 93-84, on Saturday night. The Jazz can't afford to look past the Lakers being just a half-game ahead of Houston for the final playoff spot in the West, but they also have to be smart about resting their key players since they have upcoming games against the Warriors, Spurs, Clippers and Mavericks. 
So the backdoor should remain wide open for the Lakers in case they do fall behind by a lopsided margin. 
However, I see the Lakers not having to rely on garbage time to cover this number. I think they'll be pumped after playing poorly at home last night. Lakers fans have a history of supporting their team in Salt Lake City and they should be out there in full force tonight to witness Kobe Bryant's final game in Utah. 

Absolutely must-win spot. Revenge angle. Better team. All of those fit why I like the Wizards to steamroll the Lakers. 
This is the start of a crucial five-game West Coast trip for the Wizards, who have lost two in a row after winning five straight to put their postseason hopes in dire straits. The Wizards have about a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to several analytical websites. A loss to the Lakers would realistically kill any playoff hopes. 
The Wizards do draw the Lakers, Kings and Suns - three teams playing for next season - on this trip. However, they also get the Clippers and Warriors, who are 34-0 at home. So Washington can't afford a slip up here. 
If playoff incentive isn't enough, the Wizards should be sky-high for this matchup remembering how the Lakers beat them, 108-104, in front of a full house at Verizon Center in early December. Kobe Bryant was instrumental in that victory scoring 31 points. I'd be shocked if Bryant even produced a decent game here dealing with a right shoulder injury and shooting less than 36 percent from the field. 
During their five-game win streak, the Wizards held opponents to 41.3 percent shooting and 92.4 points a game. But in their last two games, the Hawks shot 53.6 percent from the floor and the Timberwolves made 53.1 percent of their field goals. The Lakers can't get hot like that. They rank last in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Only two teams score fewer points per game than the Lakers. 
Making things worse for LA, is emerging point guard D'Angelo Russell isn't likely to play due to a sprained ankle. Few point guards are better than Washington's John Wall, who is going for his ninth consecutive double-double. 
The Lakers are one of the worst home teams in the league at 10-26, 16-20 ATS. They have failed to cover in five of their last six at Staples Center. The Wizards have covered during four of their last five road games against the Lakers. 

These teams met just two weeks ago and the line was 211 1/2. The Spurs won 93-85 at home. Now the total has been adjusted downward way too much - especially considering how many key players the Spurs will be missing.

Out for the Spurs are defensive ace Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Thunder is enjoying a homestand and is rested. Their dynamic offense should be able to take advantage. 

Leonard didn't play last night against the Grizzlies and Memphis - despite a no-name rotation - scored 104 points on the Spurs. San Antonio has loads of bench scoring so I see the Spurs getting their points against a mediocre Thunder defense that ranks 16th in points allowed per game. 

Paul George is iffy, but even if it doesn't play I like the Pacers to cover this number against the Nets. Brooklyn still could be in the clouds after upsetting the Cavaliers two nights ago.

The Pacers should be focused in a dog fight for the final playoff spot and have the stronger bench. 

Early marketplace activity has been on the Heat here, which is understandable since the perception is Miami will be fired-up after an embarrassing 112-88 road loss to the Spurs. 
I don't buy into that perception. I think Orlando will be the more motivated team. 
Let's discuss the Heat first. This marks their third game in four days and end of a two-game road trip that concluded at San Antonio on Wednesday. After this matchup against a floundering foe, the Heat are idle for the weekend not playing again until Monday. Miami has failed to cover in five of its last seven home games versus foes with a winning percentage of less than .400 on the road. 
Orlando has a fiery coach, Scott Skiles, and off a bad loss, too. The Magic were drilled at Detroit by 16 points two nights ago. Nikola Vucevic is going to miss his 11th consecutive game with a groin strain. Power forward Ersan Ilyasova won't play either due to a sprained shoulder. But the Magic still maintain youthful talent with Victor Oladipo and point guard Elfrid Payton, who is playing his finest ball. 

The Magic should be up for this game, the last of a four-game road trip, against an in-state rival that has bullied them through the years. Orlando is 10-4 ATS following a defeat. The Magic also are 8-4 ATS in their past 12 games at this spread. 

I'm going to fire now on the Nets anticipating that Tyronn Lue is going to rest some of his key Cavaliers, maybe even LeBron James, which would likely result in a lower number. The Cavaliers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and off a hard-fought 113-104 home win against Milwaukee last night with James and Kyrie Irving each logging at least 37 minutes. 
The Nets' roster can't compare to Cleveland's. But Brooklyn is playing had and with spirit. The Nets' young players are trying to prove themselves. Sean Kilpatrick is providing an upgrade on Donald Sloan averaging 18 points during his last five games and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is back from an ankle injury. These under-the-radar players will give a full effort - something you can't assume the Cavaliers will have in this road flat spot. Cleveland is 3-11-2 ATS its last 16 road games when going against a foe with a losing home record. The Cavs also have failed to cover the last four times following a victory. 
I like the Nets' roster composition and energy much more now with Joe Johnson gone. A key to picking the right spot to back the Nets is making sure center Brook Lopez is playing. Brooklyn is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Lopez has suit up. 
The Nets have double revenge motivation and have covered the past four times versus above .500 opponents. 

This is a natural letdown spot for the Hornets traveling to play a weak foe less than 24 hours after a stunning 91-88 home victory against San Antonio last night. The Hornets came from 23 points down to pull out the improbable win against the Spurs. There is a fatigue factor, too, for the Hornets playing for the fifth time in seven days.
The Nets have defeated the Hornets six of the past eight times at home. Brook Lopez, the Nets' best player, is expected to play after sitting because of a virus in the Nets' last game, a 115-103 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Nets are 7-4 ATS the past 11 times Lopez has played. Lopez's presence is huge because the Nets lack an inside game without him. 
Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and also is 8-2 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. 

A 94-85 home loss to Utah last night puts the Bucks 10 games under .500 and six games out of the last playoff spot in the East with a dozen games left. So, no, the Bucks aren't going to make the playoffs.
This is something Jason Kidd realizes. That's why he's made the decision to cut back on his starter's minutes and use the rest of the season to evaluate his entire roster. 
That decision helps make the Pistons even a stronger home favorite against the Bucks. 
Detroit defeated Milwaukee, 102-91, on Feb. 27 in the team's last meeting. That was in Milwaukee and the Pistons won despite making just 42 percent of their shots from the floor. The Pistons hold two strong edges on the Bucks - rebounding and point guard play with Reggie Jackson. The Bucks are thin at the key position. Michael Carter-Williams is out for the year. So is O.J. Mayo, who while not a true point guard was taking some of the load off by helping out with the ballhandling. 
The Bucks were outrebounded by the Jazz, 45-27, last night grabbing a laughable two offensive rebounds. Utah ranks fifth in the league in rebounding margin. Detroit is fourth. Andre Drummond is the No. 1 rebounder in the NBA. The Bucks rank 23rd in rebounding margin. 
The spot is good also for Detroit. The Pistons are in the fourth of a franchise-long nine straight home games. They are 20-11-2 (64%) ATS at home this season. Detroit also is 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times hosting a team with a winning percentage of less than .400. 
The Pistons are mere percentage points out of the final playoff spot in the East. They know the path to the playoffs lies in beating bad teams at home. Stan Van Gundy ripped Detroit's lack of defense in its last game, a lackluster 115-103 win against the Nets this past Saturday. 
Milwaukee is 9-26 in its road games. The Bucks have a losing spread mark away from home. They are playing without rest and finally realizing their playoff hopes aren't going to happen. 

This is too high of a total with Cleveland involved. The Cavaliers rank No. 3 defensively in fewest points allowed. Denver is minus its top scorer and go-to-guy Danilo Gallinari.

The Cavaliers should be particularly motivated to clamp down on defense after giving up an embarrassing 122 points to Miami in their last game. 

The under is 6-1-1 the past eight times these teams have met.

The Clippers are in angry mood after Doc Rivers justifiably ripped his team following a 113-102 road loss to Memphis last night. The Clippers were beaten straight-up as double-digit favorites. 

Now the Clippers draw a team as decimated with injuries as the Grizzlies in the Pelicans. New Orleans has five players out for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. They soon may be joined by Anthony Davis, the team's one star.
Davis missed the second half of New Orleans' last game this past Friday with knee soreness. He also has a sore shoulder. There is talk the Pelicans may shut Davis down for the season since they aren't making the playoffs. Davis certainly isn't likely to play today. All of this has to be disheartening to an already disheartened Pelicans team. 
New Orleans is 2-9 in its last 11 games. The Pelicans' only victories during this span have come against the Kings. They are 2-7 ATS versus opponents with a winning record and are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall games. 
The Clippers have a good history of bouncing back - 9-2 ATS the past 11 times following a loss - and have defeated the Pelicans in all three meetings this season and 11 of the last 13 times.  

As great as the Warriors are, they are trumped in this spot by San Antonio.
The Spurs have won 43 in a row at home. They haven't lost to the Warriors at home during the regular season since 1997 - a streak of 32 consecutive victories! Even more important, the Spurs have eagerly anticipated this revenge game since getting blown out, 120-90, at Golden State on Jan. 25. 
The Warriors played last night dispatching Dallas, 130-112, in impressive style. Dallas played well in that loss despite the lopsided score. The Warriors had to use their best players for 34-36 minutes and lost center Andrew Bogut to an injury in the game. That means the Warriors are down three of their top eight players with Andre Iguodala and Festus Ezeli also out with injuries. 
The Spurs have one of the best and deepest frontcourts in the league with Tim Duncan, LaMarcus Aldridge, David West and Boris Diaw. The Warriors are at an extreme disadvantage here being thin upfront. 
Golden State has failed to cover four of the last five times when playing without rest. San Antonio is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games when going against an opponent with a road winning percentage greater than .600.

The Clippers are less awesome minus Blake Griffin. They don't have the star power to cover double-digit type road spreads in letdown spots, which this matchup is for them. 

The Clippers just buried the Rockets in Houston two nights ago in a highly-satisfying grudge match victory. Before that game, the Clippers played the Spurs and hosted the Cavaliers in a nationally televised matchup this past Sunday. Now the Clippers get the crippled Grizzlies. This is LA's third of five straight road games. The Clippers play at New Orleans on Sunday and then travel to Golden State in a real test matchup for them. So this looms as a flat spot for the Clippers.
LA is 1-5 ATS following a straight-up win and can be excused if it doesn't take the Grizzlies serious. Memphis is down Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. The Grizzlies' third best player, Zach Randolph, has missed the last seven games with a knee injury. 
The Grizzlies have lost four in a row, three of those coming on the road. They are fighting hard to maintain their playoff spot. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies, who always have held a strong home-court. Memphis has won five of its last seven games at FedEx Forum despite its injuries. The Grizzlies have covered 73 percent of their last 22 home contests. They also have covered in 11 of the past 13 meetings versus the Clippers.
There's a chance both Randolph and Vince Carter, who has missed the last four games with a strained calf, return for this game. That would be an added bonus but I like the Grizzlies in this spread range even at far less than 100 percent. 
Lance Stephenson and Matt Barnes, two emotional players and former Clippers, are playing at high levels for Memphis. Stephenson is averaging 23.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists in his last four games, while Barnes has contributed an average of 16 points and 8.2 rebounds during his last five games. Both of these players will be sky-high for this matchup. 

The record shows a 2-6 mark for Portland in its last eight games and just a 1 1/2 game lead for the Trail Blazers over Utah for the final playoff spot in the West.
A closer look at the Trail Blazers' tailspin reveals that their last six losses - all on the road - were against the Spurs, Thunder, Warriors, Pistons, Raptors and Celtics. Now Portland drops down in class to face the decimated Pelicans. 
I see a strong effort forthcoming from the Blazers and a bounce back victory. New Orleans is down five players for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. Point guard Norris Cole is questionable. The Trail Blazers have a huge backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
The Pelicans are 2-8 in their last 10 games, an adrift team without hope. The only team the Pelicans have beaten during this span is the Kings. Three of New Orleans' starters are Dante Cunningham, Omer Asik and Toney Douglas. So it's not a surprise the Pelicans have problems beating any team with a pulse. 
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS the past nine times facing a foe with a winning record, while Portland is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times against opponents with a losing record. 

The Rockets are playing better. But don't put much stock in their 130-81 burial of the Grizzlies this past Monday in their last game. The Grizzlies are just a shell of themselves with multiple key injuries. The Rockets' history is to fall back once they start looking good. 
This has become a bitter rivalry series after the Rockets eliminated the Clippers in an epic playoff series last season coming from 3-1 down to pull it off. 
The Clippers are 1-3 and were blown out in their last two games. But those three losses were against the Thunder on the road and the blowout defeats came to the Cavaliers and Spurs in San Antonio where they are undefeated. The Clippers don't play again until Saturday when they face the crippled Grizzlies. I expect an all-out effort from the Clippers, who certainly have the talent to beat Houston straight-up.

The Rockets are giving up the most points per game since 1988-89. But their offense is rolling averaging 114.4 points in the last five games while reaching triple digits in eight straight games.

The Clippers are due for a big offensive game after having just faced the top-ranked defensive team in the league, San Antonio, and another top-five defense, the Cavaliers.

This is a high-scoring series. The Rockets average 117.3 points during the past six games against the Clippers. The over has cashed eight of the last 10 times the teams have met. 

Short-handed New Orleans is way overmatched to begin with and the situation makes it worse.
New Orleans is 1-7 in its last eight games. This marks the depth-shy Pelicans' third road game in four days and fourth in six days. They have lost five players for the season, including two of their top four players in Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. The Pelicans also could be missing point guard Norris Cole for a fourth straight game. He's dealing with a back problem. 
The Pelicans are 7-26 on the road with five straight road losses. They stand a far better chance of winning away from home in their next game when they meet Sacramento on Wednesday. 
Golden State ranks No. 1 in points per game and 3-point shooting. No guard tandem comes close to making as many 3-pointers as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. 
The Pelicans rank 25th in points allowed per game, 25th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in 3-point defensive field goal percentage. They can't stop the Warriors. They can only hope to stay within shouting distance. That's likely going to mean a strong game from their streak-shooting top 3-point man, Ryan Anderson. However, Anderson is in a cold spell missing 23 of 28 shots from beyond the arc during the last five games. 

The Warriors own the best start in NBA history at 59-6. They are 30-0 at home. They have beaten the Pelicans eight times in a row at home. You always worry about a team being overconfident and flat when laying this many points. But I see the Warriors maintaining their intensity. 
Golden State received a wake-up call from the Suns during its last game, a 123-116 home win two days ago. The Warriors trailed by nine points in the fourth quarter in that game. The Warriors do not play again until Wednesday when it hosts the Knicks. So there is no look-ahead negative factor. The Warriors have dominated Western Conference foes, too, ATS-wise going 21-10-1 (68 percent) the past 32 times. 
 

The over has cashed in 11 of the Mavericks' last 14 games. The Mavericks have an old roster and their wearing down on the defensive end surrendering triple-digits during each of their last 14 games.

Charlotte has reached triple digits in its last seven games averaging a staggering 118 points during this span. Kemba Walker is having a monster season for the Hornets. The over has cashed in six of Charlotte's last seven games. 

It's easy to think star power with the Cavaliers and Clippers with names such as LeBron James, Chris Paul and Kyrie Irving. But these two teams actually are underrated defensively. Cleveland ranks fourth in fewest points allowed while only seven teams give up fewer points per game than the Clippers. 
Now throw in an early start time to accommodate national television, and the possibility of sluggish play on offense is increased. Because of daylight savings time kicking in, this game will begin at 11:30 a.m. local time. That's rough on the body clock. 
Kevin Love is due back for Cleveland after sitting out the last game with sore knees. That's not necessarily a plus for the over, though, as Love is 11-for-42 (26 percent) shooting from the floor in his last four games. 
The Clippers have held an under bias when playing Eastern Conference foes going 9-3 under the past 12 times. The under also has cashed in seven of the Clippers' last eight home games.   

OK here are the facts regarding San Antonio at home. The Spurs have won 40 in a row at AT&T Center, including 31 games this season. San Antonio has covered 67 percent of its last 43 home contests.

The Spurs are not a team I usually care to buck - especially at home. So it takes a special point spread - like this one - to get me involved in fading San Antonio.
No, Oklahoma City isn't in San Antonio and Golden State's class. But the Thunder are at that very next level. Their cast of stars can match any team. There may not be a better talent tandem than Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. 
Only three times in their last 31 games have the Thunder lost by more than eight points.They beat the Spurs by six points at home in their lone meeting against them this season.  
The Thunder and Spurs are just two of six teams that have won 65 percent or more of their games. The Spurs are 2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS when playing those elite teams. Their lone cover came by one-half point. The Spurs have proved they can crush inferior opponents. They have to prove they can cover a big number like this against a blue chip foe. 

Nearly decimated New Orleans gave it all it had before losing in overtime to Memphis last night. The Pelicans have lost five players for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. All but one of New Orleans' starters played at least 41 minutes last night. Anthony Davis logged 47 minutes. Top reserve Ryan Anderson went nearly 37 minutes. Point guard Norris Cole didn't play and is questionable for this matchup. 
This is the Pelicans' fourth game in six days. The Bucks have been idle since Wednesday and have a strong revenge motivation after the Pelicans embarrassed them, 116-99, at New Orleans on Jan. 23. The Pelicans shot an incredible 17 of 31 from 3-point range in that win. 
New Orleans is 1-6 in its last seven games and out of playoff contention. The Pelicans are 7-25 on the road, including losing 23 of their past 30 away contests. The Bucks are seven games above .500 at home. 

The Wizards have been a strong over team on the road. They've gone above the total in 15 of their last 22 away contests. The Wizards also have gone over the total in 20 of their last 26 games when having two days rest.

Utah should be able to exploit a Wizards' defense that has surrendered 99 or more points in each of their last six games. 

There is a lot of star power missing here. Chris Bosh is out and Dwayne Wade is questionable for Miami. On the Chicago side, Jimmy Butler is out and Derrick Rose could sit out, too. 
The Heat are the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA holding foes to 97.2 points a game. Miami is coming off a high-scoring 114-108 road loss to the Bucks. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times Miami has lost in its previous game.
The Bulls are going to be highly motivated to play tough defense after being embarrassed 129-111 at Miami 10 days ago. The Heat set a franchise record by making 67.5 percent of their field goals, the highest percentage the Bulls have allowed since 1983-84. Before that game, the two teams had gone under in their previous six meetings. 

I'm not buying the Nuggets as this big of a favorite when they don't have their best player, injured Danilo Gallinari. You have to go back to Dec. 11-15 to find the last time Denver won three in a row. 
The line has climbed because the Suns are bad, too, and coming off a 128-97 home loss to the Knicks last night. In their two previous games, though, the Suns beat the Magic and Grizzlies. Both of those victories were achieved on the road at higher point spreads than this. The Suns have professional pride and should come out strong after being humiliated last night. They have covered the past seven times following a double-digit home loss. 
Devin Booker and Alex Len are playing well for the Suns yet remain well under the radar. It's a plus if Brandon Knight is able to play today for Phoenix. He's missed the last 21 games with a groin injury, but has been cleared to play now. 
The Suns play Denver with a great deal of confidence having won and covered eight of the last 10 meetings, including going 4-1 the past five times in Denver. 

Phoenix is 3-2 in its last five games and coming off an impressive 109-100 road win against the Grizzlies this past Sunday. But don't for an instant think the Suns are any good. They aren't. Neither are the Knicks. This is bad on bad and the point spread has become out of whack here.
The Knicks opened three-point favorites. Now that's been reversed. This is a clear over adjustment. The Suns not only have failed to cover the last four times they were home favorites, but lost straight-up each time. They also were 0-10 ATS following a victory until upsetting Memphis. 
Carmelo Anthony will be the best player on the court and he's been hot - averaging 26.4 points in his last five games. Star Knicks rookie Kristaps Porzingis should be less rusty, too, after shooting just 3-for-11 from the field in last night's road loss to the Nuggets. He had missed the game before that with a bruised leg. 
The Knicks were bad in that loss. But in their two prior games, they beat the Pistons by 13 at home and lost to the hot Celtics by one point on the road. New York was 3-0 ATS in its last three away contests before laying an egg against the Nuggets.  

The Nets are playing up-tempo and at a faster pace since getting rid of Joe Johnson. The over has cashed in 14 of the Nets' last 20 games. The Nets, though, rank last in defensive field goal percentage and just allowed the Timberwolves to shoot a team-record 68.4 percent from the floor in a 132-118 loss this past Saturday. 

Toronto is averaging 108.2 points during its last five home games. The Raptors have reached triple digits in 12 of their last 14 games. They should have no problem getting their share of points versus the Nets. 

I want the Warriors off their most shocking and worst-played game of the season, a 112-95 road loss to the Lakers Sunday afternoon. The Warriors haven't shot as bad from 3-point range as they did against the Lakers - 4-for-30 - since December of 2013. 
I have to believe the Warriors are going to be in a super kill mood returning home where a victory tonight would break the Bulls' NBA record for consecutive home wins. The Warriors scheduled a shootaround today even though they played yesterday. It's the first time they have had a shootaround the day of a game when playing without rest and it demonstrates how serious they are taking this matchup. 
Golden State is 20-7-1 ATS the past 28 times when playing on the second of consecutive days and also 15-5 ATS the past 20 times after not covering the spread during their last game. 
Orlando couldn't give the Warriors a battle when it was in a much better spot playing at home on Feb. 25. The Magic lost 130-114 as eight-point underdogs. Stephen Curry scored 51 points in that contest, but the rest of the Warriors didn't play that well. It was a flat game for Golden State and they still beat the Magic by 16 points on the road. 
Now the Magic not only face what should be an aroused and embarrassed Warriors squad, but also are off a highly-deflating, 102-84 home loss to the lowly Suns this past Friday. That dropped the Magic's record to 8-21 in their last 29 games and put a stop to any realistic talk about them making the playoffs. This is what Magic coach Scott Skiles was quoted as saying following that defeat. "We should probably stop talking about (the playoff chase) right now because this was a game we had to have." 
Orlando is 4-9 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. 

The Grizzlies are being undervalued in this spot. It's understandable. They just lost to the Suns, 109-100, on Sunday while the Cavaliers are coming off a hugely-satisfying 17-point home victory against the Celtics this past Saturday in a big revenge spot. 
The oddsmaker also isn't giving the Grizzlies respect because Memphis is down Marc Gasol, its best player. But the Grizzlies are a playoff, prideful, savvy, veteran team that gives up the seventh-fewest points in the NBA. The Grizzlies have been holding their own, too, minus Gasol winning seven of their last 10. The Suns are the only team to score more than 100 points during the Grizzlies' past six games. 
This is an under-the-radar spot, too. Memphis is 8-1 ATS off a loss and also 8-1 in its last nine games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Grizzlies are 9-4 ATS, too, the past 13 times when playing without rest. There's a strong possibility they could get back Tony Allen, their second-best defender. 
The Cavaliers are in action for the third time in four days. They may not have their full focus either knowing the Grizzlies just lost to the Suns. Cleveland embarks on a four-game West Coast trip beginning Wednesday so that's a potential distraction. 

Detroit played last night, but it's Portland that carries a high fatigue rating in this matchup. The Pistons were idle for two days before losing to the Knicks, 102-89, on Saturday. Now they return home where they have covered 64 percent of their games at The Palace of Auburn Hills. 
Prior to losing to the Knicks, the Pistons had held their previous five opponents to an average of 93.6 points a game. Detroit is a top 10 defensive club and thanks to Andre Drummond one of the best rebounding teams in the league. 
Portland ranks 16th defensively and is at the end of a its six-game road trip. This marks the Trail Blazers' fourth away matchup in six days. Portland stayed hot opening with three victories on their trip, but now have lost two in a row falling to Boston and Toronto. You would have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Trail Blazers finished a trip of at least six games with a winning record. 
This is statement time for the Pistons if they are serious about making the playoffs. The key for the Pistons is finding their offense. They were held to 81 points on the road against the Spurs this past Wednesday and only managed 89 versus the Knicks last night. Keep in mind, though, the Spurs are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. The Pistons just suffered an off-game against the Knicks as Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris, who had been playing well since coming to Detroit, were a combined 8-for-37 from the floor versus New York. 
I envision Stan Van Gundy having the Pistons fired up for this Sunday home game and their offense should step up versus a mediocre opposing defense and tired opponent. 

Dallas can't afford to slip up here in its quest for a playoff quest. The Nuggets weren't good to begin with and they are not nearly as good now minus their top player Danilo Gallinari. He was the one player they couldn't afford to lose. The Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. 

The Mavericks have been getting a lift from a healthy Chandler Parsons and newcomer David Lee to go along with their other steady veterans. This is a game the well-coached, savvy Mavericks don't figure to lose. 

Rarely do I care to lay points with the Timberwolves. This is one of those times. 
Minnesota is off a road performance so bad that Timberwolves coach Sam Mitchell yanked his three best players - Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio - early in the third quarter and never put them back in the game during a 116-101 loss to Milwaukee Friday night. The Timberwolves committed a season-high 26 turnovers and once again didn't play defense. 
I don't suddenly expect the Timberwolves to curb their season-long defensive and turnover woes, but I do expect them to come out very hard here and take advantage of an even worse Nets squad that is in a letdown spot. 
The Nets nipped Denver in overtime, 121-120 on a tip-in with 0.4 seconds left by Brook Lopez, last night in the high altitude of the Rockies. Brooklyn, which ranks second-to-last in scoring, made 50.5 percent of its shots from the field while hitting 13 of 22 3-pointers. Now the Nets make their seventh straight road appearance. They are 7-22 on the road this season.  
Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. They also are 2-9 ATS the past 11 times playing in Minnesota. The Timberwolves have beaten the Nets nine of the last 13 times and have played well lately at Target Center covering seven of their past 10 there. During this span, the Timberwolves have defeated the hot Celtics, Raptors, Bulls and Grizzlies. They nearly upset the Thunder, too, falling by three points in a game that had 19 lead changes. 

A month ago Avery Bradley hit a buzzer beater as the Celtics upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland, 104-103. The Cavaliers haven't forgotten. Not only is this a huge revenge spot for them, but it's a great situation, too. 
Both teams played Friday night. The Cavaliers waltzed past the Wizards, 108-83, at home. Kyrie Irving was the only Cleveland player to log more than 31 minutes. Kevin Love received the night off. He'll be fresh. 
Boston, on the other hand, had to rally from eight points down in the final four minutes to nip the lowly Knicks, 105-104, at home last night. The Celtics had to exert a lot of energy to pull out that victory. Now the Celtics immediately fly out to Cleveland for their first road game since Feb. 22. Boston has been outstanding at home, but are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four road games losing to the Timberwolves, Jazz and Bucks. The Cavaliers were idle for three days before rolling past the Wizards. They are far more rested than Boston.
The Celtics rely on fast breaks and the scoring of Isaiah Thomas. However, the Cavaliers rank fifth in defending opponents fast breaks and Thomas is shooting under 32 percent from the field against the Cavaliers in nine games against them since he joined Boston. 
This is statement time for the Cavaliers being the dominant team in the Eastern Conference. They want to prove that to the upstart Celtics and the spot lays out well for them to achieve that. 

Down big men Marc Gasol and Brendan Wright, the Grizzlies have altered their style. They are more up-tempo and giving extra minutes to wing players P.J. Hariston and Lance Stephenon. Gasol and swingman Tony Allen, who is likely to miss a seventh straight game due to a sore knee, are Memphis' top defenders. The Grizzlies are weaker defensively without those two. 
Gasol was injured eight games ago. The Grizzlies have adjusted by playing much faster. They are averaging 110.6 points during their last five games. Utah isn't as strong defensively on the road and its defense has been down lately surrendering triple digits in five of eight games since the All-Star break. 
The over has cashed in eight of Utah's last nine road matchups versus a foe with a winning home mark. 

The Jazz are averaging only 95 points during their last three games. But all three of those matchups were against Eastern Conference foes. If you discount their last Western Conference game against San Antonio, the league-leader in defense, the Jazz have averaged 105.7 points in their last four contests versus Western Conference foes. 

It's not so much the Suns that the Heats are dealing with today. It's a battle against human nature. After just facing the Warriors, Celtics, Knicks and Bulls - the last two of whom they beat - the Heat now draw the Suns at home. That's followed by consecutive games against the 76ers. Can you say letdown? 
It's hard to blame the Heat either if they take it easy. They just buried the Bulls, 129-111, on Tuesday shooting a franchise record 68 percent from the floor. It's a long season in the NBA. Rest stops are rare and welcomed. The Heat have had a tendency, too, to play to the level of their competition. They've already lost at home to the Timberwolves, Nets and Knicks. 
The Suns are bigger and a better rebounding team now that they're playing Tyson Chandler and Alex Len together. The Suns are bad, but they are absolutely dreadful when Chandler is out. He's back providing an inside toughness. Phoenix is a semi-respectable 5-6 ATS since February when Chandler has been in the lineup. Len is the under-the-radar averaging 18 points and 11 rebounds during his last five games. 
Phoenix just upset Memphis two games ago. The Suns then were embarrassed by the Hornets in their last game. Earl Watson doesn't have much talent that's for sure, but he's usually able to get Phoenix to play hard something that couldn't be counted on when Jeff Horancek was coaching

Miami has been playing at a faster tempo since losing Chris Bosh. But that could start to change now that veteran Joe Johnson has become a primary addition. 
The Heat still rank No. 2 defensively in the NBA giving up fewer than 97 points per game. The Suns really struggle on the road where they've averaged a measly 86.2 points during their past five away contests. 
The Suns are stronger inside and more deliberate offensively with big men Tyson Chandler and Alex Len now in the lineup together. The Suns, with their weak backcourt, know they can't beat opponents playing fast-tempo. The under has cashed seven of the past nine times the Suns have faced opponents with a winning record.
If the score does get lopsided, the Heat are likely to play their reserves extra minutes. Miami has some older veteran with wear and tear and play again on Friday. So it would be prudent to cut back on their starter's minutes if the game is well in hand. 

No. Denver, at 14 games below .500, can't lay this many points especially minus its best player and maybe missing its second-best player, too.
The Lakers just beat the Nets last night at home to end an eight-game losing streak. But they were idle for three days before that game so fatigue shouldn't be a factor. The Lakers have young legs, too, so Denver's high altitude shouldn't be a big minus for them. 
Kobe Bryant is likely to play after missing last night's game. I wish he weren't. The Lakers are better off with emerging rookie D'Angelo Russell controlling the ball. Russell is off his best game of the season. 
The Nuggets haven't been this high of favorites all season. They don't have leading scorer and their top player, Danilo Gallinari. He's out with an ankle injury that may sideline him the rest of the season. Kenneith Faried is the Nuggets' only other legitimate starter and he might sit out because of back pain. The Nuggets rely on Will Barton for a spark. But the streak-shooting Barton is in a cold-spell shooting only 30.4 percent from the floor in the last five games and going 0-for-12 the past three games from beyond the arc. 
The Lakers are often under priced in away contests. This is another example. LA has covered in six of its last eight road games. The road team is 7-1 ATS the past eight times in this series, too. 

Indiana is in stop-the-pain mode with four losses in its last five games, including the last three. Those defeats occurred to the Heat in overtime on the road, a one-point home loss to the Hornets, a nine point-home loss to the red-hot Trail Blazers - winners of 14 of their last 16 - and this past Monday to the Cavaliers, 100-96, on the road in a game that featured 25 lead changes, 17 ties and tough official's calls that went against Indiana. 
The Pacers are a frustrated team that should be highly focused for this matchup especially since Paul George called into question the team's toughness. Now the Pacers get to step down in class. The Pacers have lost a dozen games by four points or less. They are due to win one of these close ones. 
The Bucks are six games worse in the standings than the Pacers. They are fat and happy after beating the Rockets, 128-121, this past Monday at home. The Pacers aren't the Rockets, though. The Rockets don't play defense. The Pacers do ranking 10th in the league. They are better coached, too, than Houston.
Milwaukee leads the NBA in points in the paint, but rank 23rd in points per game. The Pacers have gotten better up front as rookie forward Myles Turner has been coming on strong since the All-Star break and center Ian Mahinmi is drawing more minutes. 
Milwaukee remains thin in the backcourt. The Bucks just got Jerry Bayless back, but now starting point guard Michael Carter-Williams is dealing with patella tendinitis and is questionable. George gives the Pacers the best player on the court and Indiana's backcourt depth is bolstered by the return of Rodney Stuckey. 

Yes, the Lakers are in tank mode. But eight losses in a row are enough for them. They don't want to be embarrassed at home by the Nets.
Brooklyn is 6-21 on the road. The Nets are playing in their fifth road game in eight days. The Lakers have been idle since Friday. Clearly, this is a good situational spot for the Lakers. 
The Lakers defeated the Nets in Brooklyn back in November. The Lakers hold a backcourt edge and have far more youthful talent than Brooklyn. D'Angelo Russell has been coming on for the Lakers, while the Nets' thin backcourt took a hit with last night's loss to the Clippers when Wayne Ellington may have suffered a concussion. He's likely to sit out. 

Orlando is averaging 111 points in its last eight games. Dallas is averaging 117 points in its last seven games. Both teams are mediocre on defense ranking 14th and 15th, respectively, in points allowed per game.

The over has cashed in six of Orlando's last eight road games. The Mavericks have gone over the total in eight straight games. 

Memphis is 10 games above .500 and 4-2 since losing its best player, Marc Gasol, to a broken right foot. The Grizzlies are still a borderline playoff team without Gasol, at their best versus lower tier opponents such as the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have defeated Denver four straight times and are in a great spot to continue that streak.
The Grizzlies should be primed for a strong, concentrated effort after an embarrassing, 111-106, road loss to the Suns on Saturday. This is what Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley was quoted as saying following that loss: "We still feel like we are rolling right now and playing good basketball. For us to come out and not play our best, I think our focus level wasn't where it need to be." 
Denver is 13 games below .500. The Nuggets are headed for worse, too, after losing their best player, Danilo Gallinari. He suffered a severe ankle injury in the Nuggets' last game, a 122-116 overtime loss to the Mavericks. 
Gallinari is the key to the Nuggets. He leads the team in scoring at 19.5 points and also is the man when the offense breaks down -which it often does - by his ability to get to the free throw line when nothing is going on. Gallinari connects on 86.8 percent of his free throws. Even with Gallinari's great free throw percentage, the Nuggets rank 16th in the NBA in free throw percentage at 76.5 percent. Now that mediocre percentage is headed lower with Gallinari sidelined. Denver went 1-5 in December when Gallinari missed six games with another ankle injury. 
The Grizzlies still have the veteran savvy, huge point guard edge with Conley and bench to cover this short road number against a Denver team that could be reduced to a starting lineup of D.J. Augustin, Gary Harris, Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur and JaKarr Sampson. Faried is the only legitimate starter of that bunch. 

The Heat have dominated the Knicks, winning eight of the past nine times, including going 4-0 SU and ATS at Madison Square Garden.
Miami is the superior team, but the oddsmaker has downgraded the Heat because they have injuries and played on Saturday. 
Chris Bosh, second-string point guard Beno Udrih and third-string point guard Tyler Johnson are all out for the Miami. But the Heat just signed veteran Joe Johnson, who may be able to play, and are 3-2 since the All-Streak break minus Bosh beating three decent Eastern Conference teams - Hawks, Wizards and Pacers. The Heat's lone defeats since break have come against the Warriors by six points and on the road against the Celtics, who have won 10 in a row at home. 
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Eastern Conference games and steps way down in class. Fatigue shouldn't be that much of a problem because the Heat played a day game yesterday. Miami has a winning record when playing without rest. They've adjusted to the loss of Bosh with veteran Luol Deng stepping up. Johnson isn't a big loss. 
The Knicks are lottery-bound again. They are a bit fat and happy after beating Orlando, 108-95, this past Friday. Before that game, though, the Knicks had dropped nine of 10. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. New York also isn't entirely healthy. Carmelo Anthony, Arron Afflalo and Kristaps Porzingis all missed practice on Saturday with assorted injuries. 

Even a well-coached, veteran team such as the Spurs can be excused if they are anxious to finally get home. This marks the final game of the Spurs' annual "Rodeo Road Trip." They are 6-1 in their last seven games, all on the road. 
The Rockets have covered the past six times at home versus San Antonio. Houston should have its confidence up, too, after overcoming a 21-point second-half deficit to defeat red-hot Portland on the road this past Thursday. The Spurs are just 4-9 ATS the past 13 times facing Houston. 
Both James Harden and Dwight Howard are playing well. Harden is averaging 34.4 points in five games following All-Star break. Howard has posted five double-doubles in his last six games. 

New Orleans could be in for a letdown facing the lowly Timberwolves after upsetting the Thunder at home on Thursday. The Pelicans are 7-13 ATS as chalk while the Timberwolves have covered 13 of their last 18 on the road when facing a foe with a winning home mark.
The Timberwolves are getting excellent play from big men Karl Anthony Towns, the likely Rookie of the Year, and Gorgui Dieng, who has hit 15 of 19 shots from the floor during the last two games. They can counter some of Anthony Davis' dominance. I like the Timberwolves' edge at point guard, too, with Ricky Rubio. 

This is a big revenge spot for Indiana. The Hornets whipped the Pacers by 23 points on Feb. 10. That was the game, though, where the Hornets lost Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, their best defender, for the season. 

Despite that injury the Hornets were riding high winning five in a row until falling 114-103 on the road to the Cavaliers two nights ago. I could envision the Hornets letting down after their streak was snapped.
Paul George is having a huge season for the Pacers. George had 22 points in the Feb. 10 loss, but rookie forward Myles Turner contributed only 10 points. Turner is playing much better now averaging 17 points since the All-Star break. 
Indiana is at its point spread best versus Eastern Conference opponents going 21-10-1 ATS for 68 percent. 

San Antonio is a very good team without Kawhi Leonard. But when they have Leonard, the Spurs rank with the Warriors as the top team in the NBA. Leonard came back last night after missing three games with a calf injury and helped spark the Spurs to an easy 16-point win against the Kings. Leonard will be less rusty now that he's had a game.
Yes, the Spurs played last night. But they were idle the previous two days. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. The Spurs are at least several tiers higher than Utah. The Spurs have a huge coaching, guard and bench edge. 
San Antonio gives up the fewest points per game in the NBA and has the highest margin of victory. When Leonard is in the lineup, the Spurs allowed just 92 points a game. The Jazz average 98.4 a game, which ranks 26th. 

Considering the class difference and matchup - the Spurs are 2-0 versus the Jazz this season winning by 25 and 37 points - San Antonio should easily be able to cover this number. 

The Spurs haven't been real sharp coming out of the All-Star break. The Clippers destroyed them by 19 points and they only beat the Lakers by six points and Suns by seven points. San Antonio failed to cover any of these three road games. Up until the All-Star break the Spurs had never gone more than two straight games without covering the spread. They still have a winning road spread mark and have had two full days off to regroup and get motivated for this matchup. 
It's a nice plus if defensive stopper and team leading scorer Kawhi Leonard can play tonight. He's missed the last three games with a calf injury. I understand that Leonard's absence has had a lot to do with the Spurs failing to cover in their last three games following the break. But I still like them in this spot as Sacramento is coming off a narrow victory against the Nuggets in Denver last night. 
Since Jan. 26, the Kings have played without rest twice. They lost and failed to cover in those games against Portland and Cleveland by a combined 35 points. They also are 0-4 in their last four meetings against the Spurs losing the last one, 106-88, at home on Nov. 9. 
The Spurs rank No. 1 defensively, while the Kings are the worst defensive team in the NBA. 

Discount a 95-point performance against the Knicks two games ago and Minnesota is scoring an average of 111.7 points per game during its last seven games. The over is 12-3-1 in the Timberwolves' last 16 games. 

Toronto has scored at least 101 points in 15 of its last 17 games. The over is 6-2-1 in the Raptors' last nine games.

OK, at this high of a total I'll hold my nose and go under with these two teams. They just met Friday and the final score totaled 226. But I see the Nuggets holding the Kings to fewer than 116 points unlike in the last meeting. 
Nuggets coach Michael Malone knows the Kings well from having coached them and he was very unhappy with Denver's defense. He's astute enough to make proper adjustments especially against star center DeMarcus Cousins. 
The Kings are the worst defensive team in the NBA. Denver, though, ranks 20th in scoring averaging 100.7 points per game and is 26th in field goal percentage. The Kings have been idle for the last three days so they could be rusty. 

Only four teams score more points than the Rockets. But the Rockets rank 27th defensively. Houston has yielded triple digits in 10 of its last 11 games. The over has cashed in 15 of Houston's last 18 Western Conference games. James Harden is on a hot streak averaging better than 32 points during his last four games. 

Utah's scoring is up. The Jazz have scored 111 points in each of their last two games. Rodney Hood has emerged as a scoring force, Raul Netto has improved at point guard and Derrick Favors' return gives the Jazz improved offense up front. 

Adding veteran Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings while getting rid of Channing Frye has made Orlando a better team. The Magic came back from All-Star break by defeating Dallas after falling 21 points behind. The Magic then lost a close game to Indiana, 105-102.
Now the Magic step way, way down in class. Scott Skiles has the Magic fighting for a playoff spot. Orlando can't take a loss here. The Magic's next games are against Golden State at home on Thursday followed by a road matchup versus the Knicks on Friday. 
Orlando also has revenge for a 96-87 home loss to the 76ers on Jan. 20. The Magic were at low ebb back then. They are better now.  
The 76ers have gotten better, but they still are a bottom four team. Philadelphia has failed to cover in 20 of its last 27 Eastern Conference games while the Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games against foes with a winning percentage of less than .400.

The Warriors aren't just great at home. They also are an NBA-best 25-5 on the road, including 18-11-1 (62 percent) ATS on the road. The Warriors also are 12-5 following a non-spread cover. 
Atlanta already has lost six more games than it did all of last season. The Hawks aren't in good form either losing and failing to cover in four of their last five. Both teams are playing for the third time in four days, but the Warriors have the stronger bench. 
Hawks point guard Jeff Teague is dealing with a wrist injury. The Warriors have a couple of their big men out, but the Hawks are not a good rebounding team. Atlanta also is missing backup big man Tiago Splitter, out for the year after hip surgery. 

Charlotte is more of an over team after losing Michael Kidd- Gilchrist for the season with another shoulder injury. The Hornets have inside scoring with Al Jefferson back from injury to complement Kemba Walker from the perimeter. Walker is having a big season and is hot averaging nearly 25 points per game during his last five games. New pick-up Courtney Lee is more offensive-minded than Gilchrist. 
The Nets have reached triple digits in six of their last eight games. 

The Pistons have covered 64 percent of their home games this season and have revenge for an embarrassing 115-99 road loss to New Orleans from last month. 
While Detroit is a top home team, New Orleans is a terrible road team. The Pelicans are 6-21 away from home, 11-16 ATS. The Pistons have covered nine of the last 11 times against opponents with a losing road mark. New Orleans also is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games versus Eastern Conference opponents.
The Pistons upgraded themselves at the trade deadline. Their main pickup, Tobias Harris, scored 21 points off the bench this past Friday against the Wizards in his Detroit debut. 
New Orleans is the longest of shots to get a playoff berth. Detroit, on the other hand, is very much in playoff contention. The Pistons can't afford to be flat here at home with a road game against the Cavaliers on Monday. 
I see the Pistons going all out to halt their four-game losing streak. Anthony Davis is an outstanding big man, but Detroit's Andre Drummond is having as good as any season a big man is having. He is leading the league in rebounding and has a higher field goal percentage than Davis. 

Golden State is the best team in basketball. The Warriors haven't dropped two in a row all season - and I don't see it happening here. The Warriors should be extremely focused and fired-up following a shocking 137-105 road loss to Portland Friday night. The Trail Blazers are tough at home and brought their "A" game. The Warriors were rusty and not as focused as they should have been coming off All-Star break. 
The Clippers are off a hugely-satisfying 19-point home win versus San Antonio two nights ago. The Clippers are more bullies than elite. I question their mental makeup and heart. The Clippers are 5-12-1 ATS against foes who have a winning percentage above .600. They are 6-13 ATS at home versus opponents who sport a winning road mark. I don't see the Clippers being able to beat the Spurs and Warriors in a row even at home. 
Golden State has covered 64 percent of its road games this season and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 Pacific Division games. The Warriors still will be fresh, too. This is just the Warriors' second game in 10 days and none of their players logged more than 30 minutes last night. 
There are plenty of All-Stars in this matchup, but none the caliber of Stephen Curry, who is having one of the greatest seasons in NBA history. No one can guard Curry certainly none of the Clippers' weak backcourt defenders. Golden State has defeated the Clippers four consecutive times, including winning both meetings this season. 

The oddsmaker has to set a high total like this because Sacramento gives up the most points per game in the NBA at 109.1. Denver is a below average defensive team, too, surrendering 103.4 points a game. 
So on the surface this high total makes sense. However, there are several key factors below the surface that point to these teams not reaching this high number. 
Denver entered the All-Star break playing better defense. If you discount a 115-110 Denver victory against Chicago, the Nuggets are giving up an average of 95 points during their last six games. Much of this has to do with Michael Malone, who is an excellent defensive coach and is in his first season with the Nuggets after getting letting go at Sacramento. He'll be fired up to coach against the Kings, who he obviously knows well. Neither team wants to show too much since they play each other again on Tuesday. 
This is a crucial game for the Kings, who can't take a loss here if they are serious about making the playoffs. Sacramento should be primed for an all-out effort since their next game isn't until they play the Nuggets again on Tuesday at Denver. That's followed by home games against the Spurs, Clippers and Thunder.  
The Kings nearly fired coach George Karl during All-Star break. A major reason for this is the Kings' lackadaisical approach to defense. If it doesn't improve - and fast - Karl is likely gone. The Kings have had more than a week to clean this up. They have to be tired of constantly hearing about how bad their defense is. The Nuggets have a weak scoring backcourt. Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay shoots 34 percent from the floor and veteran Randy Foye got dealt on Thursday. So it's not too much to expect the Kings to slow down Denver's attack. 
Both teams figure to be rusty, too, after the long layoff. In the first NBA action following All-Star break, each of the three Thursday games went under the total. 
The Kings also may be missing their fourth and sixth-leading scorers as both Omri Casspi and Marco Belinelli are questionable after each had wisdom teeth pulled. 

We know Utah is strong defensively. The Jazz rank No. 3 in scoring defense holding foes to 96.4 points a game. The Jazz are particularly tough on Eastern Conference foes who rarely see them. That's born out in the under cashing 21 of the past 30 times the Jazz have met an Eastern Conference opponent. 
But what about the Wizards? They ranked fifth in defensive efficiency last season, but have dropped all the way to 21st this season. Wizards coach Randy Wittman has been stressing defense all week. The Wizards can get burned by great athletes. The Jazz, though, don't have a dynamic offense, nor big-time scorers. 
Utah ranks 26th in scoring at 97.8 points per game. The Wizards have held the Jazz to an average of 86 points during the past three meetings. The under has cashed in five of the past six meetings between the two clubs. 
The under also has won in 11 of Washington's last 15 home contests. There's the chance, too, that veteran swingman Alan Anderson makes his season debut for the Wizards after being out all season following ankle surgery. He's a high-energy, stalwart defender who would be a plus to the under. 
The offenses aren't likely to be in rhythm either due to the week-long All-Star break. There's also a possibility of the teams being involved in a trade today, which could leave them short-handed, or affect their offenses if an important cog is missing. 

The Wizards started slow last season, but ended up finishing 10 games above .500, earned the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs and swept the Raptors in the first round. 
Now, though, at the All-Star break the Wizards find themselves in 10th place, three games away from the playoffs. Basically the Wizards have nearly the same roster. I expect them to make a move now that Bradley Beal is healthy and John Wall is having a superstar-type season. Wall suffered a bruised knee in the Wizards' final game before the break, but showed he was OK scoring 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting in the All-Star Game. 
Utah is 26-26. The line is priced too low in my opinion because the Jazz entered break winning seven of their last eight games. But those victories came on the road against the Mavericks in overtime, at the Suns and the rest were at home versus the struggling Bulls, Bucks, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Hornets. That's not exactly Murder's Row. The Jazz have failed to cover in nine of their last 13 away games. 
This matchup could be a season-defining moment for the Wizards. They can't waste any time getting things turned around especially taking a home loss to this mediocre opponent with their trumped-up recent record. 
This game was supposed to be played last month, but a massive snowstorm caused a postponement. Because of that, Washington has to play Detroit at Verizon Center on Friday and then at Miami on Saturday. That's three games in three days. 

Normally I don't get involved with All-Star games, but this game is an exception.

The West roster isn't just better than the East roster - it's vastly superior. LeBron James is the only player on the East I would rate as among the top 10 players in the game. The West has Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, James Harden and Chris Paul. 

The East can't come close to matching that talent and depth. The West also has a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich, one of the greatest coaches of all time, against novice Tyronn Lue, who shouldn't even be coaching in this game. 

The West has multiple teammates playing - Durant, Westbrook from the Thunder, Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge from the Spurs and Curry, Green and Klay Thompson from the Warriors. These guys are all used to playing with each other. 

These huge edges are more than enough to overcome the randomness factor that can pop up in exhibition games. 

New Orleans doesn't have the defense to control the Thunder. The Pelicans rank 24th both in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma City ranks No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 109.9 points a game and has been averaging 112.4 points during its last 15 games. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are each playing at high levels and the Thunder have the big bodies in Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams to slow down Anthony Davis. Durant is averaging 36.3 points during his last three games.
The spot is ripe, too, for Oklahoma City. New Orleans has won two in a row. Those victories were against Minnesota and Utah. Now the Pelicans jump way up in class following a narrow 100-96 home win against the Jazz last night. New Orleans is 5-11 ATS following a cover. This is the Pelicans' third game in four nights. Their depth is down with Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans out. 
The Thunder are 13-2 in their last 15 games with their lone loss during their last seven games coming on the road to Golden State. 

If the Warriors ever are going to have a letdown this is the game. This is Golden State's final game before All-Star break. During the past four days, the Warriors beat the Thunder and Rockets last night in a rematch of the Western Conference finals. Three Golden State players will be heading out to play in the All-Star Game. At 47-4, the Warriors have set the record for best 51-game record in NBA history. This is a fun spot and a well-deserved rest stop for the Warriors. 
The Suns can't defend or match Golden State's firepower. But there is far less of a chance of the Suns mailing this one in than Golden State. This is the Suns' opportunity at home to test themselves against the best. Before the coaching change from Jeff Hornacek to Earl Watson, I wouldn't have gotten near the Suns in this matchup. 
But morale in Phoenix is much improved under Watson. So is the effort. The Suns have played four good-to-respectable teams under Watson - Raptors, Rockets, Jazz and Thunder. They are 2-2 ATS in those games with only one loss being by more than nine points. That came against the Thunder this past Monday. The Suns were hanging in - actually leading by six in the third quarter - before coming undone victim of a late Kevin Durant hot streak. 
Watson has turned around Markieff Morris, who is averaging 11 more points under Watson than he did Hornacek, and has helped unheralded Archie Goodwin show signs of becoming a respectable point guard. Goodwin is averaging 18.5 points and 7.3 assists under Watson, a former point guard. 

 

OK, no Marc Gasol. Out with a broken bone in his right foot following Monday's overtime loss to Portland, which was the Grizzlies' second consecutive home overtime loss having also fallen to Dallas this past Saturday. This is the first time the Grizzlies have lost consecutive games in six weeks. 
Gasol is Memphis' best player. His absence hurts the Grizzlies' interior defense and inside scoring. Memphis probably can kiss goodbye any hopes of drawing the fourth or fifth seed in the Western Conference playoff chase with Gasol sidelined indefinitely. 
But the oddsmaker has made too much of an adjustment for Gasol's loss in this matchup. The prideful, veteran-laden Grizzlies aren't going into All-Star break riding a three-game losing with a loss to the lowly Nets. 
Until these back-to-back home overtime losses, the Grizzlies had been playing their best ball going 11-2. They will take care of business being extra pumped to prove themselves in their first game without Gasol. It helps drawing such a weak opponent. 
The Grizzlies bring a tougher mindset than the Nets - especially with this being each team's final game before the week-long All-Star break - play far superior defense, have a much stronger bench and need this game far more than the apathetic Nets. Gasol is out, but the Grizzlies still hold numerous edges, including a major one at point guard with Mike Conley. Memphis has covered in its last seven games against Eastern Conference foes. 
Brooklyn, for one of the rare times, actually is fat and happy. The Nets have won two of their last three games, nipping Denver by one point at home in their last game this past Monday. The last time Brooklyn won two straight was two months ago. I highly doubt the driftless Nets want to win as much as the Grizzlies do in this last game before vacation and with each team playing for the fourth time in six days. 
The Nets are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games even though their pointspreads often are inflated. They also are 2-9-1 ATS the past 12 times going against foes with a winning record. 
Brooklyn ranks 28th in defensive field goal percentage. The Nets have surrendered 110 points per game during their last four games, a figure that would rank last in the league if taken for the entire season. The Grizzlies are averaging 104.9 points and 48.7 percent shooting during their last 12 games. Those figures would rank seventh and third, respectively, if computed for a full season. 

I like Brad Stevens a lot. But there exits a huge talent gap between Stevens' Celtics and the Clippers. LA has enough star power to go 18-4 despite not having Blake Griffin the last 22 games. The Clippers don't need Griffin to beat Boston on the road especially given the circumstances of the matchup. 
The Clippers have been on the East Coast the past three days after getting away with a lackluster performance in a 98-92 overtime win against the 76ers this past Monday. The Celtics, on the other hand, are crossing a time zone flying into Boston in the wee hours of the morning following a bizarre 112-111 road loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday night. The Celtics clawed their way back from 18 points down in the final quarter to tie the game only to lose on a free throw by Khris Middleton with less than a second left after a deadball foul had been called.  
The Clippers have won 12 of their past 14 away contests. They feast on Eastern Conference foes going 11-3 in their last 14 games against them. They've covered 72 percent of their past 27 games versus Eastern Conference opponents.  LA received its wakeup call against the 76ers during its last game. The Clippers have covered each of the last eight times following a non-cover and also are 9-2 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 
Because of Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce, the Clippers get extra motivated when they play the Celtics especially in Boston. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS during their past six trips to Boston winning each of the four meetings since Rivers left the Celtics to become LA's coach. 
The Celtics have a strong bench. They are better than most teams when playing without rest. But Jamal Crawford - a streak shooter - has been the hottest reserve player in the NBA averaging 22 points during his last five games. 
The Clippers are at their best in these type of matchups, beating up a weaker Eastern Conference foe. The Clippers have the talent edge, are in a good spot already being in Boston before the Celtics arrive and have the motivation knowing they can't get away with being flat against this caliber of opponent especially when their first two games following All-Star break are against the two best teams in basketball - San Antonio and Golden State. 

The Knicks are broke and interim coach Kurt Rambis isn't going to fix them. Rambis was horrible when he coached the Timberwolves from 2009 to 2011 and he takes over a bad situation that isn't likely to get resolved until next season, certainly not during the brief period before All-Star break. 
The short Derek Fisher era was a disaster for the Knicks. New York was 40-96 during his reign. That's the worst percentage of any Knicks coach lasting longer than a season. Fisher was the Rich Kottie of New York basketball coaches. 
The Knicks are 1-9 in their last 10 games and have dropped five in a row failing to cover any of their last five. Yes, the Wizards are struggling, too. But they are a level above the Knicks, match up well to New York and catch the Knicks in a horrible transition spot. Not only is morale low with the Knicks, but there is dissension among the coaching ranks with the hiring of Rambis. 
New York is well deserving of its losing streak averaging fewer than 96 points during its last 10 games while surrendering more than 106 points per game during its last 15 contests. This the Knicks' final game before having 10 days off for All-Star break. I could very well see them mailing this one in. 
But what about the Wizards? The record shows they are 3-8 in their last 11 games. It also reveals Washington, though, to have played very tough opponents during this span including the Warriors, Thunder, Raptors, Celtics twice, Rockets, Heat and Trail Blazers. 
The Wizards have had three days to stew about blowing a 19-point road lead to the Hornets this past Saturday in a 108-104 loss. The good news is John Wall continues to play at a high level, Bradley Beal is out of his minutes limitation and Nene could return for this game. Unlike the Knicks, the Wizards hold realistic playoff hopes and should have a great deal of urgency for this game. 
Washington hasn't dropped three consecutive road games all season. The Wizards have covered seven of their last nine road matchups. They have played their best against Eastern Conference clubs going 14-6 ATS. They also have beaten the Knicks seven of the past eight times while winning four in a row at Madison Square Garden.

Just last week the Pelicans were talking playoffs three games out of the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. Now New Orleans trails Utah by seven games for that final playoff seed having lost four in a row. Three of those defeats were to the Grizzlies, Spurs and Cavaliers, though.
Now the Pelicans step way down in class in a must-win spot against an opponent they have dominated. 
New Orleans has won the past six times against the Timberwolves, covering five of the six. The Pelicans defeated Minnesota, 114-99, in their previous meeting on Jan. 19. The Timberwolves couldn't handle Anthony Davis, who scored 35 points. 
Minnesota has one of the weakest home-courts in the NBA going 8-18 at Target Center. The Timberwolves have covered just 27 percent of their past 34 home contests. They are 8-21 ATS, too, versus foes with a losing record. 
The oddsmaker downgrades the Pelicans due to injuries to Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. Both are out. But point guard Norris Cole is off his finest game of the season, scoring 26 points in the Pelicans' last game. Cole has scored double-digits in all but one of his last nine games. Minnesota has injuries, too. The Timberwolves could be down Kevin Martin and big men Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Garnett. 

The Bulls are in stop-the-pain mode going 2-4 heading into this their final matchup of a seven-game road trip. Chicago has tumbled all the way to being the sixth-seed in the Eastern Conference. 
The Bulls are better than that. Yes, Jimmy Butler and Joakim Noah are out. But Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose are healthy and the Bulls have a talented reserve roster, which is made stronger with the return of Mike Dunleavy, who played his first game of the season this past Saturday.  
The Bulls are in desperation mode after blowing a lead to the Timberwolves in their last game, an embarrassing loss. There is no knock to the Hornets in this handicap. Charlotte finally is healthy except for Al Jefferson and has a strong home-court. The Hornets are 7-4 in their last 11 games. They are a decent team - but not strong enough to get away with laying this many points against this caliber of opponent, wounded or not.
I much prefer the Hornets when they are in an underdog role - not laying points. They are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times as chalk. 

The 76ers opened 1-30. They are not that team anymore. The 76ers are 7-13 in their last 20 games. It's not a coincidence the 76ers have picked up their game since veteran point guard Ish Smith joined the team. Philadelphia also has gotten healthier. That combination has made the 76ers semi-respectable, capable of springing upsets at home against a fat and happy opponent in a flat spot. 
Smith didn't play in the 76ers' last game, a 103-98 home win versus Brooklyn this past Saturday, because of a sprained ankle. The Nets were coming off their best game of the season when they lost to the 76ers. Smith is expected to play today. 
The 76ers catch the Clippers playing in their third road game in four days and without rest after a lackluster 100-93 victory against the Heat on Sunday. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS following a victory. They are thin in the backcourt having found out that Austin Rivers suffered a broken hand. The Clippers aren't immediately going to replace Rivers. The Clippers have a bigger game on deck against the Celtics on Wednesday. 
Western Conference teams have taken the 76ers for granted going just 4-13-1 ATS when playing Philadelphia. I see the Clippers falling into that same pattern in a game they are going to lack motivation. 

Miami is playing well and is healthier than it has been. However, the Clippers are a level higher and have been in Florida since Friday when they defeated the Magic, 107-93. So the Clippers shouldn't be bothered by the early start and difference in time.
The Clippers have won 17 of their last 21 games and have covered in nine of their last 11 road games.
The Clippers beat the Heat at home, 104-90, on Jan. 13 despite missing Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who was out with an illness. Jordan is back and playing well with 15 or more rebounds in his last six games. Miami's Hassan Whiteside isn't going to be dominant squaring off against Jordan.
The Clippers also have been getting excellent bench production from streaky Jamal Crawford, who has scored 20 or more points in four of his last five games, including the past three. 

The Suns are 2-0 ATS since Earl Watson replaced Jeff Hornacek as head coach. The Suns should provide a strong home effort here, too, in what shapes up to be a low-scoring game. 
This is the Suns' last realistic chance at winning a game before All-Star break as their final two games before the break are against Oklahoma City and Golden State. Archie Goodwin has stepped up nicely for the Suns during their last two games filling in for injured point guard Brandon Knight. Goodwin is settling into the role. 
The main factors, though, for this handicap are anti-Utah reasons. 
The Jazz just finished a 5-1 homestand with a tough 84-81 win against Milwaukee last night. Utah's starters logged big minutes. The Jazz are weak at point guard and may be without backup point guard Trey Burke, who played only three minutes versus the Bucks due to illness. 
The Jazz are limited offensively - ranking 26th in scoring - and a bad road team. The Jazz are averaging less than 85 points during their past two games. They are 7-15 away from Salt Lake City and have failed to cover in eight of their past 10 road contests. 

At plus 4 I'm going to get involved with the Bulls. Chicago is short-handed and playing without rest. But I like the Bulls' bench and don't see them losing by this big of a margin to the Timberwolves, who are 7-17-1 ATS at home. 

The Bulls have covered in six of their last seven visits to Target Center. 

The spot sets up well for the 76ers catching the Nets off their finest game of the season. Brooklyn just upset the Kings, 128-119, at home Friday night shooting a season-high 55.8 percent from the floor and a stunning 18 of 28 (64%) from 3-point range. 
Despite these numbers, the Nets rank 28th in scoring and are 22nd in 3-point shooting. The Nets' 43.7 field goal percentage on the road would rank 29th if it included all of their games. 
Brooklyn is 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. They are 3-15 in its last 18 games. The Nets have a better record than the 76ers, but I like Philadelphia's young talent much better. The 76ers also have a better bench for one of the rare times. Only twice all season have the Nets captured back-to-back games the last time coming nearly two months ago. 
The Nets are going to be fat and happy here. This is their lone road matchup during an eight-game span. They just were home for three games and then go back to Brooklyn for four more games following this matchup. 
The 76ers have covered four of the last five times when going against a sub .500 foe. The last time they played an opponent this bad was five games ago when they beat the Suns at home, 113-103. The 76ers then nearly upset the Warriors in their next home game losing at the buzzer. After that near miss they fell flat against the Hawks at Wells Fargo Center and didn't play well in a road loss to the Wizards last night. So Philly should be fired-up here. 

As bad as the Nets are, the Kings can't be supported laying this many points on the road. 
Sacramento was playing well, but has cooled off dropping five of its last six games. The cause is a continuing Kings problem - terrible defense. The Kings rank last defensively surrendering 108.1 points a game. That number rises to 114.5 during the last six games. Sacramento also yields the most 3-pointers in the league. 
The Kings have lost and failed to cover in their last three games losing those games by an average of 9.3 points. Yes, those opponents were the Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Grizzlies. The Nets are worse than those teams. But it's still too big a leap of faith to believe the Kings can cover a mid-size road number like this. 
Sacramento has allowed more than 30 points in the opening quarter in each of its last five games. That's extremely difficult to come back from that especially away from home. The Kings have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. They've also not covered during their last six road games against the Nets.
Brook Lopez is having a strong season for Brooklyn. He can get DeMarcus Cousins in foul trouble. The Nets should be motivated after getting embarrassed by Indiana at home in their last game two nights ago losing by 14. Prior to that, the Nets had been very competitive at Barclays Center upsetting the Thunder by 10 points, falling to the Heat by four and to the Pistons by five. 

The Hawks are playing better and their lineup is littered with All-Stars. But Indiana is a bad matchup for Atlanta because of the Hawks' rebounding problems. 
This is proven in the two matchups played this season. The Pacers won 93-87 on Dec. 28 as a 1 1/2-point home favorite and buried the Hawks, 111-92, just eight days ago as 3-point home chalk. Now look at the line. I think it's out of whack. 
Rookie center Myles Turner is showing big improvement for the Pacers, while the Hawks will be down one of their top big man reserves in Tiago Splitter, out with a hip injury. 
The Pacers are at their best versus Eastern Conference opponents covering 76 percent of their last 26 games against fellow conference foes.