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NBA Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
04-19-18	Blazers +3.5 v. Pelicans	Top	102-119	Loss	-105	17 h 13 m	Show
Just six days ago, Portland was considered to be superior to New Orleans. Now, two games later, the Pelicans are up 2-0 in their Western Conference playoff series and Portland is a road 'dog in do-or-die mode. Is it time to close the book on the Trail Blazers? Perhaps. But I do believe Damian Lillard is due for a turnabout and the Trail Blazers will let everything hang here. The Pelicans are going to take the Trail Blazers' best punch. Lillard has made just 13 of 41 shots from the floor for 31.7 percent in the series. He's much better than that. C.J. McCollum is due to play better, too. Portland should fare better as the hunter rather than the hunted. The Trail Blazers have covered six of the last eight times they've been underdogs. They have covered 56 percent of their road games this season. New Orleans has a decent, but not great home court advantage. The Pelicans have a losing ATS mark at Smoothie King Center. I find Portland's Terry Stotts to be an underrated coach. He's going to make adjustments and tweaks in this Game 3, including probably putting Moe Harkless into the starting lineup. Harkless could be Portland's secret weapon. He had been out the past 10 games due to injury before returning in Game 2. Harkless had a Portland-best plus 10 during his court time in Game 2. The Trail Blazers entered the playoffs 13-3 ATS the last 16 times Harkless has played.
04-19-18	76ers v. Heat UNDER 217	Top	128-108	Loss	-108	17 h 5 m	Show
It's easy to think offense when discussing the 76ers and all their young talent headed by Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric. But Philadelphia actually is very strong defensively. The 76ers ranked second this season in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Heat, of course, have forged their blue-collar repuation by playing tough defense. Only three teams gave up fewer points per game than Miami this season. Yet Under bettors were torched when the 76ers won, 130-103, in Game 1 and some Under bettors lost in Game 2 depending on the number they took. So what gives and why is Under the best way to look in this Game 3? Based on the quality of these two defenses, with both placing among the top-seven in points per possession, the total is jacked up too high. Some of this has to do with 233 points being produced in the series opener. That game, though, was an outlier. The Heat and 76ers combined to make 30 of 54 shots from 3-point range. That's 55.5 percent. The 76ers shot 36.9 percent from beyond the arc entering the series, while the Heat were below average from 3-point range during the regular season hitting 36 percent. The Heat bounced back to win 113-103, in Game 2. That's a combined 216 points with the total being in the 215-217 range depending on the sports book and when the wager was made. The score was 109-100 with 10 seconds left. This isn't college basketball. That's what the final score should have been for 209 combined points. Instead a lot of B.S. and unnecessary end-game stuff happened. Seven points were scored during these meaningless last 10 seconds, including Goran Dragic putting in a layup with one second remaining. The dynamics could be altered for this Game 3 if Embiid returns to the lineup. He's missed the last 10 games with an orbital fracture. Embiid is a plus both offensively and defensively with his rebounding and shot-blocking skills, where he ranked sixth in blocks per game. The Heat have an elite rim-protector, too, in Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside was limited to only 15:10 of playing time in Game 2 because of foul trouble. He should log more minutes in this game, which would be a plus for the Under. If Embiid plays - and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said he has prepared his team for this to happen - I would regard it as more of a plus than a minus for the Under. Embiid will be tough inside defensively, but his shot figures to be rusty since he's been idle since March 28.
04-18-18	Jazz v. Thunder UNDER 206.5	Top	102-95	Win	100	14 h 19 m	Show
Utah was the best defensive team in the NBA during the second half of the season. The Jazz, though, are limited offensively. They rely heavily on rookie Donovan Mitchell for scoring. Mitchell, however, is hindered by a foot injury and will be defended by Paul George, one of the top defensive wing players in the NBA. I don't trust Utah's other offensive options if Mitchell isn't producing a lot of points. These teams combined for 224 points in Oklahoma City's 116-108 Game 1 victory this past Sunday. I don't expect both teams to combine to hit 25 of 47 3-point shots like they did in the series opener. The Jazz and Thunder met three times during the regular season and the combined final scores averaged 190 points. Utah averaged fewer than 90 points during its three regular season meetings against the Thunder. So I believe the first playoff game was an aberration due to extremely hot long range shooting. Intensity and defense go up during the playoffs not down. Look for a return to the norm here in a tight defensive game.
04-17-18	Wizards +6.5 v. Raptors		119-130	Loss	-101	16 h 56 m	Show
The Wizards fell 114-106 in Saturday's Game 1 of this playoff series. But Washington was leading much of the time until midway through the final quarter. The Raptors hit 16 of 30 3-point shots for 53.3 percent. The 16 3-pointers was a franchise playoff record. I don't see the Raptors repeating that performance. These teams are closer than perceived. They split their four regular season games. The Wizards made just 8 of 21 3-point shots from 3-point range. The Raptors aren't that good from long range and the Wizards figure to shoot better. John Wall is getting more comfortable since returning from injury. The Raptors may be without key backcourt reserve Fred VanVleet, too. He has a shoulder injury.
04-16-18	Spurs +10 v. Warriors		101-116	Loss	-115	12 h 39 m	Show
There's an overreaction to the Warriors' 113-92 burial of the Spurs from Saturday's opening playoff game. The Warriors may be back on track defensively, but they are not the powerhouse of the previous two seasons. The Warriors remain without Stephen Curry and are 8-10 in their last 18 games. This is a down year for the Spurs. But they still have the talent, bench and tremendous coaching to be respectable if not dangerous. I'm looking for a strong effort from San Antonio after its embarrassing first game loss. Only twice in their last 17 games, have the Spurs lost by double-digits. Golden State is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory of more than 10 points. The Warriors also have failed to cover 12 of the last 14 times when playing on one day's rest.
04-15-18	Wolves v. Rockets OVER 216	Top	101-104	Loss	-110	16 h 3 m	Show
Minnesota is fortunate to be in the playoffs. The Timberwolves rank among the eight worst teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Jimmy Butler is their only above average defender. The Timberwolves aren't going to be able to slow down the Rockets. Houston was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA averaging 112.4 points per game. The Rockets scored 129, 120, 126 and 116 during their four regular season games against the Timberwolves. James Harden and Chris Paul are rested and ready. Minnesota should get its points, too, especially with the Rockets missing their top defender, injured Luc Mbah Moute. Karl-Anthony Towns is a double-double machine while Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague should provide plenty of backcourt scoring to go with Butler's dynamic offensive skills.
04-15-18	Pacers v. Cavs OVER 212.5		98-80	Loss	-110	11 h 46 m	Show
This total has been steamed down low enough where there is value on the Over. Victor Oladipo is a legitimate All-Star averaging 23.1 points. Darren Collison is an underrated 3-point shooting point guard. Cleveland is a bottom-five defensive team. The Cavaliers don't have the defensive personnel to transform themselves even though the intensity level will be raised since this is the playoffs. Kevin Love is extremely weak defensively in the middle. LeBron James' presecence assures Cleveland will get its share of points. James had a tremendous season even by his Hall of Fame standards averaging 27.5 points and 9.1 assists while shooting 54.2 percent from the floor.
04-14-18	Heat v. 76ers UNDER 212		103-130	Loss	-102	29 h 18 m	Show
This should be a defensive battle just based on face value. The Heat gave up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. The 76ers ranked first in defensive field goal percentge. There are key elements that should make this even more of a defensive game, too. The 76ers are playing in the postseason for the first time since 2012. They are very talented, but very young. Nerves and inexperience could hurt their offense. Joel Embiid isn't likley to play. If he does, he'll be rusty having missed the last eight games because of an orbital fracture. The 76ers lose a large chunk of their inside offense without Embiid. Both teams rebound well so there shouldn't be many second-chance points. Miami is a bottom-eight scoring team. The Heat are a hard-nosed defensive team that lacks a superstar scorer. This figures to be a rugged half-court game typical of playoff basketball in the NBA.
04-14-18	Heat +7 v. 76ers	Top	103-130	Loss	-105	29 h 27 m	Show
The 76ers are the hottest team in the NBA winners of 16 games in a row. But they are vulnerable now that it's playoff time. How's that? Let's take a closer look. Center Joel Embiid is arguably Philly's most valuable player depending on how you feel about Ben Simmons. Certainly Embiid is the 76ers' best big man. He has missed the past eight games because of an orbital fracture and is not expected to play in this Game 1. The 76ers have won all eight of those games. However, six of those victories were against non-playoff opponents. No Embiid means the Heat have the best big man on the floor in Hassan Whiteside. The Heat are healthy as All-Star point guard Goran Dragic is expected to play after sitting out Wednesday's victory against the Raptors with a bruised knee. Philadelphia last made the playoffs in 2012. Brett Brown has never coached a postseason game in the NBA. The Heat are the more experienced team, battle tested, have the stronger bench and one of the top coaches in the league, Erik Spoelstra. The Heat have defense and depth. That can trump first-string talent, an edge the 76ers hold. Playoff basketball is different than the regular season something the 76ers have not experienced. Miami is the type of blue-collar, experienced, well-coached team that can take advantage of the 76ers' youth and total lack of playoff experience. All of the pressure is on the 76ers especially being at home. They are in uncharted waters and being asked to cover a mid-range point spread number. This is a lot of points for Philly to be laying. No team in the NBA hangs around as much as the Heat do. They were involved in games with a five-point differential with fewer than five minutes to play in regulation more than any other team in the league. Miami and Philadelphia met four times during the regular season. The 76ers won the first two, the Heat captured the last two. The Heat outscored the 76ers by two points during the four games. There is no reason why this shouldn't be another close game, too.
04-14-18	Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 208.5		92-113	Win	100	25 h 42 m	Show
To understand why Under should work here there's a need to clear up two misconceptions. Misconception No. 1: The Spurs aren't a good defensive team without Kawhi Leonard. Not true. They surrendered the fewest points per game in the league were fourth in 3-point defense and fourth in overall defensive efficiency. San Antonio is a disciplined, well-coached team that doesn't mess up its defensive assignments. Misconception No. 2: The Warriors are all about offense. Even though they won't have injured Stephen Curry, they have tremendous offensive players in Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. This isn't entirely true. Druant, Thompson and especially Green also are very good defensively. Durant averaged the seventh-most blocks per game in the league. Reserve Andre Iguodala is a top-notch defensive player, too. Golden State mailed in its last four games knowing it wasn't moving in or out of the No. 2 seed. The Warriors are laying in the weeds defensively. Their offense isn't as potent minus Curry. Defense is their winning ticket. Aside from LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs lack a consistent scorer. And Green will be watching Aldridge. These rivals know each other well having met in the Western Conference championship round last season. Note an early start time, too, which is a plus for the Under.
04-09-18	Kings +14.5 v. Spurs		85-98	Win	100	8 h 46 m	Show
The Spurs aren't dominant like they have been in the past. San Antonio isn't likely to blow out the Kings especially given the circumstances. The Kings are a respectable 5-7 during their past 12 games. Only twice during these last dozen games have the Kings lost by more than 11 points. They are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 away contests. The Spurs just beat the Trail Blazers two days ago and have a much bigger game on deck Wednesday playing at the Pelicans. San Antonio has failed to cover four of the last five times against foes with a road win percentage of less than .400. The goal for the Spurs is to win this game, not go balls-out to cover a huge margin. San Antonio has been playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA during the last 10 games. So that makes covering this big number even more difficult.
04-09-18	Grizzlies v. Wolves -15		94-113	Win	100	9 h 27 m	Show
Even if they weren't in must-win mode to try to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004, the Timberwolves would have great incentive to beat Memphis. The Grizzlies are 2-0 versus Minnesota this season. Memphis embarrassed Minnesota, 101-93, as 13-point road 'dogs when the teams last met on March 26. Talent-wise, the Timberwolves are a playoff team. But if they miss out they can blame two factors - Jimmy Butler missing 17 games with a knee injury and losing twice to the Grizzlies, who possess the second-worst record in the NBA. Butler returned this past Friday. His presence helped spark the Timberwolves to an easy 113-96 road win. Minnesota hasn't played since having the weekend off to rest and prepare for this matchup. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are in a rare flat spot. They whipped the Pistons, 130-117, on Sunday in their final home game of the season. That was the Grizzlies' best offensive game of the season.
04-08-18	Pistons v. Grizzlies +6.5		117-130	Win	100	4 h 41 m	Show
The Pistons have no special incentive here being out of the playoffs. They will be without injured Blake Griffin, too. This is Memphis' final home game of the season. The Grizzlies are in danger of finishing with their worst record since relocating to Memphis. Despite this horrendous season, the Grizzlies have played to nearly 90 percent capacity in their home games. The Grizzlies conclude their season with road games against the Timberwolves and Thunder. Those are likely losses. So this is the Grizzlies' best chance to win a game before the season ends. I believe they will come out hard for their loyal home fans and play hard. Marc Gasol can match Andre Drummond.
04-07-18	Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 222.5		134-115	Loss	-105	7 h 50 m	Show
This matchup has tremendous playoff ramifications in the Western Conference. A loss eliminates the Clippers. So I'm expecting an intesnse matchup with a lot of defensive emphasis. Note this is an early start, too. That's a plus for the Under. The Nuggets have slowed things down considerably as the long season and pressure to make the playoffs fully kicks in. This marks Denver's third game in five days. The Nuggets have gone Under by 11 and 23 points during their last two games with the posted total on those games in this range. Denver has been without its leading scorer, Gary Harris.
04-06-18	Heat v. Knicks +9		98-122	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
I understand the Knicks are a hard sell right now. But Miami isn't very good on the road and this is a flat spot for the Heat, while the Knicks should be fired-up after their dreadful 97-73 home loss to the Magic from Tuesday. The worst thing you can say about an NBA team is that it quit. The Knicks have heard that criticism for three days now following that defeat to Orlando. I expect the Knicks to rally around their coach, Jeff Hornacek, and to play hard here. New York also has short revenge for a stinging 119-98 road loss to Miami on March 21. The Knicks own a winning home ATS mark. Trey Burke is playing his best ball since coming to the NBA and Emmanuel Mudiay isn't playing quite as many minutes. Those are all positive factors for the Knicks. But a lot of this handicap is going against the Heat. The Heat just clinched a playoff spot by virtue of two consecutive victories against the Hawks. It's going to be difficult for Miami to get motivated to face another lottery opponent with its major goal - making the playoffs after missing last season - accomplished. Miami has won just two of its past 13 road contests. Those victories were against the Hawks and Lakers by one point. Among the Heat's road losses during this span was a defeat to the Kings. So the Knicks are very much a live 'dog here.
04-06-18	Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 224	Top	130-132	Loss	-103	9 h 23 m	Show
Cleveland got past Washington, 119-115, last night. Standing-wise that game was important because it put the Cavaliers one-half game ahead of the 76ers for third-place seending in the Eastern Conference. Handicapping-wise that game was important, too, because it sets into play several factors: The Cavaliers can't go at such a fast tempo because of fatigue. That's been shown in the Under cashing in 11 of the Cavaliers' last 12 games when Cleveland has played with zero rest. The Cavaliers also are likely to be short-handed at point guard with George Hill and Jose Calderon not expected to play. If this game gets away from the Cavaliers, there's the possibility LeBron James could see fewer minutes than normal. The importance of this matchup - with the winner gaining sole possession of the No. 3 seed - should ensure an intense, playoff-like type atmosphere and defense. The 76ers are underrated defensively. Going by the last 10 games, the 76ers would rank first in defensive efficiency.
04-05-18	Nets +8.5 v. Bucks	Top	119-111	Win	100	10 h 28 m	Show
Unlike other lottery teams, the Nets have no incentive to tank being without a No. 1 draft pick. That usually ensures a good effort from the Nets. It didn't happen in their last game, tnough. Brooklyn was blown out by sizzling Philadelphia, 121-95. Look for a much stronger game from the Nets following that embarrassing road loss. Going back to mid-March, the Nets would be 8-2 ATS if given more than seve points. Brooklyn has covered seven of its past eight away matchups. The Bucks are in letdown mode off a highly-satisfying home victory against the Celtics two days ago and having just clinched a playoff spot when the Pistons lost last night. Now that the Bucks are officially in the playoffs, they might reduce the minutes of their starters to get them ready for the post-season. That could mean Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been dealing with assorted minor injuries. The spot is dangerous for the Bucks and they have not been good in this type of role either. Milwaukee is 2-11 in its last 13 home games and 2-7 ATS the past nine times hosting a sub .500 opponent.
04-03-18	Spurs -118 v. Clippers		110-113	Loss	-118	12 h 50 m	Show
The Spurs are 2-0 versus the Clippers this season having won by an average of 15.5 points. Now the Spurs are playing better than ever going 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. San Antonio's last victory came against the Rockets, perhaps the best team in the NBA, by a 100-83 count this past Sunday. LaMarcus Aldridge is having a tremendous season. But a big takeaway from the Rockets game was how well Rudy Gay played for San Antonio. Gay is a huge plus if healthy. The Clippers are in must-win mode. The Spurs, though, are playing hard for playoff seeding. The Clippers always have been fragile mentally and they could be through after blowing a 16-point lead at home in their last game, a 111-104 loss to the Pacers this past Sunday. That dropped the Clippers' home ATS mark to 4-10 in their last 14 games at Staples Center. Much is made of the Spurs not having Kawhi Leonard. However, the Clippers have had a cluster injury problem at guard. They are down Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley, Milos Teodosic and Jawun Evans. Teodosic is a very underrated player.
04-03-18	Celtics +2 v. Bucks		102-106	Loss	-105	10 h 53 m	Show
The Celtics own the top point spread mark in the NBA. Boston has won six in a row and is just two games behind Toronto for the No. 1 seed in the East after an impressive 110-99 home win against the Raptors this past Saturday. Boston has been idle since that victory while the Bucks are playing for the fourth time in six days. This is the Bucks' first game back home after being on the West Coast for four games. That trip finished Sunday night. The Celtics are without Kyrie Irving. But they've been getting strong play from Jayston Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier. The Celtics have a deep bench and are much better coached than Milwaukee. The Bucks have one of the weak home court floors. Milwaukee has covered only 28 percent of its last 31 games at Bradley Center.
04-01-18	Bucks v. Nuggets -4		125-128	Loss	-108	9 h 28 m	Show
Milwaukee and Denver each are 41-35. The Nuggets, though, have the disadvantage of being in the Western Conference so they are two games out of the last playoff spot. This is must-win time for them. Denver is much stronger at home going 27-10 at Pepsi Center compared to 14-25 on the road. The Bucks are five games up on the Pistons for the last spot in the Eastern Conference. I don't see the Bucks being as intense as the Nuggets here. This the Bucks' fourth road game in six days and third game in four days. They are coming off consecutive victores versus the Warriors and Lakers in overtime. The Bucks return home after this game so a letdown very much could be in store. The Bucks are just 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games despite winning their last two games.
04-01-18	Pistons -108 v. Nets	Top	108-96	Win	100	8 h 45 m	Show
The Pistons aren't dead yet. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games with a four-game win streak. The Pistons are a long shot to make the postseason, but they still are alive - unless they lose this game. I don't see that happening. Blake Griffin is out, but Reggie Jackson has returned from injury helping to breath life into Detroit. Andre Drummond is in line for a monster game. He's averaging 15.3 points and 20 rebounds per game in three games against the Nets this season. The Nets allowed Dwight Howard to produce 32 points and 30 rebounds against them less than two weeks ago. The Nets just upset the Heat, 110-109, in overtime on the road last night for their second consecutive victory. They haven't won three games in a row all season. The Nets exerted tremendous energy in coming back from 14 points down to stun the Heat. Detroit also played last night, defeating the Knicks. So it's the Pistons who actually have the shorter distance to travel than the Nets, who are flying in from South Florida.
04-01-18	Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 213.5		111-104	Loss	-110	6 h 57 m	Show
Both teams are involved in playoff seeding so there should be defensive intensity. Note the daytime start so that's another plus for the Under. Although this is a non-conference matchup, these two teams just played one another eight days ago. The Pacers won 109-104. So there is some familiarity. The Clippers have showed defensive improvement lately giving up an average of 102 points in their last four games. The Pacers are perceived by some as a high scoring team because of Victor Oladipo. But they actually are a below-averaging scoring club and have played at the slowest tempo in the league during the past three weeks.
03-31-18	Warriors -8.5 v. Kings	Top	112-96	Win	100	12 h 19 m	Show
Can the Kings actually win a season series against the Warriors having already defeated Golden State twice at Oracle Arena? No, of course not. Golden State is in an excellent spot to put a much needed halt to its three-game losing streak. The Warriors aren't at full strength, but they do have Kevin Durant and Dramond Green back for sure. The Warriors should have a sense of urgency not only to avenge two surprising home losses to the Kings, but to start getting things right to defend their world title with the playoffs coming up in a couple of weeks. It's easy to spotlight how bad the Warriors have been missing Stephen Curry, but the Kings are playing bad, too, losing five of their last six. They've been held to 98 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The Warriors rank third in defensive field goal percentage. They not only have the two superstars, but also a much stronger bench.
03-29-18	Bucks v. Warriors -4.5	Top	116-107	Loss	-108	11 h 27 m	Show
After consectuive home losses to the Jazz and Pacers, I see the Warriors bouncing back today against the underacheiving, complacent Bucks. The Warriors have been losing because of being short-handed. That changes here with the return of superstar Kevin Durant and All-Star Draymond Green. The Bucks are safetly in front of the Pistons by five games for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks aren't playing that well. They are 2-3 in their last five games with one of the victories coming against the tanking Bulls. Giannis Antetokounumpo hasn't been 100 percent because of an ankle injury. The Bucks have a much easier game on Friday playing the Lakers, so if they fall well behind they could just rest up their starters for tomorrow. The Warriors defeated the Bucks by 14 points in Milwaukee on Jan. 12 when they didn't have Stephen Curry. There's just too much of a class difference here and the timing is ripe for the Warriors getting back two of their stars while in stop-the-pain mode.
03-28-18	Celtics v. Jazz UNDER 194.5	Top	97-94	Win	100	16 h 1 m	Show
Utah gives up the second-fewest points per game in the NBA. Boston surrenders the third-least amount of points per game. Of course, the oddsmaker knows this. So we have a low total here. But based on circumstances, injuries and a more in-depth look at these defenses, it still makes for a strong Under play. No team is stingier defensively at home than Utah. The Jazz have been the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency, too, during their past eight overall games. The Jazz should have lots of defensive energy and intensity having last played on Sunday. They've played three straight road games all against Western Conference opponents. The last time they met an Eastern Conference foe was in their last home game, a shocking 99-94 loss to the lowly Hawks on March 20. The Hawks are a bottom-10 defensive team so Utah only putting up 94 points on them raises questions about just how good the Jazz's are offensively especially when Donovan Mitchell has an off-shooting night. Utah catches a huge break. Not only are the Celtics without Kyrie Irving, their leading scorer, but Marcus Morris isn't likely to play either. He sprained his ankle in the Celtics' last game, a 102-94 road victory against the Suns this past Monday. Morris has been Boston's top scorer during Irving's absence. The Celtics have become the slowest tempo team in the league since Irving went out. The Suns have the worst defense in the NBA yet held the Celtics two points under their season average. Boston isn't going to speed things up either in this matchup playing its fourth road game in six days. This is a survival game for the Celtics. Boston has the top defensive efficiency rating in the league when on the road. The Celtics can never be counted out thanks to the superior coaching of Brad Stevens. They will rely heavily on their defense to try to keep this one tight. The Celtics don't play again until Saturday so they shouldn't give up their defensive intensity if they fall behind.
03-27-18	Bucks v. Clippers -3		98-105	Win	100	21 h 32 m	Show
The Clippers proved they were better than the Bucks when they beat them by seven points just five days ago in Milwaukee. Now the Clippers are home in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot in the West. The Bucks don't have that kind of urgency being safely ahead of ninth-place Detroit by six games. Milwaukee is an underachiever given its talent. The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 games. The Clippers have been tough versus Eastern Conference foes. They just upset the best team in the East beating the Raptors in Toronto two days ago. That pushed the Clippers' mark to 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games versus Eastern opponents. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't 100 percent because of an ankle injury. The Clippers could get back sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari for this game.
03-25-18	Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 203		110-91	Win	100	13 h 4 m	Show
The mixture of no Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson combined with what projects as a slower-paced game than perceived should produce a lower than expected final score. It's no surprise the Warriors' offense is far less potent without their three leading scorers. If you discount their game against the Suns, who give up the most points per game in the NBA, the Warriors are averaging just 91.3 points during their last three games. Those games were against the Kings, Spurs and Hawks, too. The Kings and especially the Hawks are below average defensive clubs. Now the Warriors draw Utah, which has been playing the best defense in the league by far during the past 10 games. Utah has held 11 of its last 14 foes to fewer than 100 points. The Jazz aren't going to look to run. It's not their normal style anyways and they are coming off an unusual 124-120 overtime loss to the Spurs two days ago. This is Utah's third game in four days. So the Jazz don't have the legs for a track meet. Golden State has an underrated defense that it will rely on even more with their top scorers all sidelined. Golden State is No. 3 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. The Warriors rate fourth in defensive efficiency during their last five games as they adjust to their injuries. Draymond Green is going to play without a minutes restriction after missing the Warriors' Friday game against the Hawks because of a bruised pelvic. That's good news for the Under since Green is one of the best defensive players in the NBA.
03-25-18	Blazers v. Thunder -150		108-105	Loss	-150	12 h 32 m	Show
It's taken nearly the entire season, but the Thunder are finally coming on winning seven of their last eight games, going 5-2-1 ATS. Their lone defeat during this span was a one-point road loss to the Celtics. During this span, the Thunder beat the Spurs at home and Raptors on the road. Oklahoma City should be super focused for this matchup. Not only do the Thunder have triple revenge, but they need to protect their strong home-court edge at Chesapeake Energy Arena trailing Portland by one game for third-place in the Western Conference playoff seeding. The Thunder also don't play again until Thursday. So an all-out effort should be forthcoming. The Trail Blazers have tailed off after winning 13 in a row. They've dropped their past two games, including a home loss to the Celtics - who were minus Kyrie Irving - this past Friday. Portland's strength is its backcourt. But the Trail Blazers could be short-handed there. Shabazz Napier, their No. 3 guard, is questionable because of a toe injury. He missed the Blazers' prevous game. There exists the possibility, too, that All-Star guard Damian Lillard could miss this game. Lillard's girlfriend is due to give birth to their child on Monday. But if it happens today, Lillard is prepared to leave the team to witness the birth.
03-23-18	Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 219		104-109	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
The Pacers' offense became very disjointed when they had to make up a postponed road game at New Orleans two days ago. Indiana shot just 36.6 percent from the floor in losing, 96-92, to the second-worst defensive team in the NBA. Now the Pacers are back home, but their offense still could be missing. Indiana isn't going to get many missed opportunities with the way DeAndre Jordan has been rebounding. The Clippers' star defensive center is averaging 18.5 rebounds per game this month. Indiana, though, has held eight of its past 11 opponents to 100 points or fewer. The Pacers have played a very slow pace during their past 10 games, second-slowest in the league during this span. The Clippers aren't going to look to run either since this is their sixth road game in their last seven games and third game in four days.The Clippers have played five straight games against good offenses. They are stepping down in offensive class here.
03-23-18	Nuggets v. Wizards -115		108-100	Loss	-115	11 h 13 m	Show
The Nuggets can't win on the road - 12-23 away from Pepsi Center - let alone defeat a good team on the road. Not helping matters for Denver is Gary Harris, their leading scorer, remains out with a knee injury. Even without John Wall, the Wizards are one of the top passing teams in the league. Denver ranks last in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. Washington has played five games in a row versus playoff teams. So this is a step down for the Wizards. The Wizards have won the last three in the series, including beat the Nuggets in Denver back in October. Only once during its past six visits, has Denver won at Washington.
03-22-18	Lakers +2.5 v. Pelicans		125-128	Loss	-107	8 h 55 m	Show
As far as fatigue factors go in the NBA, the Pelicans face the worst I've seen in a long time. Because of an earlier postponed game, the Pelicans are in action for the third straight day and fifth time in six days. The line is a little shorter because of it, but there are other reasons to back the Lakers and fade the Pelicans. The Lakers are 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games. They are in stop-the-pain mode, though, having lost three in a row. Those losses came to the Warriors, Heat by one point and Pacers. Before their losing skid, the Lakers had won eight of 10. So they are not in tank mode. Their talent level is higher than other lottery-bound teams. The Lakers should have far more energy than the Pelicans. Not only are the Lakers much younger, but they last played on Monday. This marks just their third game in seven days. The Lakers also have double revenge motivation. The Pelicans had a tougher-than-they-wanted victory against the Mavericks on Tuesday. They then beat the Pacers, 96-92, in another tough matchup last night. Anthony Davis logged more than 70 minutes during the two games. Jrue Holiday, the Pelicans' second-most valuable player, is battling the flu and needed intravenous fluids at halftime yesterday. This isn't a must-win spot for the Pelicans. They are three games ahead of Denver for the final playoff spot in the West. So Alvin Gentry shouldn't burn up his starters to win this game given the special fatigue situation. New Orleans hasn't been good in this type of role either failing to cover 10 of the past 13 times at home versus below .500 road opponents.
03-21-18	Wizards +5 v. Spurs		90-98	Loss	-107	14 h 35 m	Show
This is a down season for the Spurs. They aren't more talented than the Wizards. Washington is one of the better road teams in the league. The Wizards have won and covered 57 percent of their away matchups, including five of their last seven. Both teams are minus their superstar. But the Spurs miss Kawhi Leonard more than Washington misses John Wall. The Wizards actually get better movement without Wall since they have the highest percentage of assists in the league during the past 22 games. The Wizards also have been No. 1 in assists per game since Jan. 27. The Wizards enter this matchup in good form having defeated two of the five best teams in the NBA, Boston and Indiana, during their last two games. The Wizards should be rested and ready having last been in action on Saturday. San Antonio is 4-0 on its homestand with a bigger game home game looming on Friday versus Utah. The Spurs beat the Warrors, 89-75, in their last game this past Monday. That victory, though, isn't nearly as impressive as it might seem. Golden State was without Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors then lost Draymond Green to a pelvic injury in the first half. He didn't return. So the value is with the Wizards.
03-21-18	Nuggets v. Bulls UNDER 222		135-102	Loss	-102	12 h 53 m	Show
It's easy to remember Denver's last game. That was two nights ago when the Nuggets lost 149-141 in double overtime. This marks the Nuggets' third of a season-high seven-game road trip. So look for the Nuggets to go at a more slow pace especially coming off a wild double overtime game. Prior to that game, the Nuggets had managed only 94 points in a seven-point road loss to the Grizzlies, who had dropped 19 in a row entering that matchup. The Nuggets remain without guard Gary Harris, their leading scorer. He's out with a knee injury. The Bulls played their last game without their three best offensive players - Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen. The result was a 110-92 road loss to the Knicks on Monday. That's 92 points against a below average Knicks defense. The Bulls lacked any rhythm offensively minus their three leading scorers. Dunn is out for sure here. Maybe LaVine and Markkanen return, although the Bulls have no urgency to rush them back. So I'm going to go Under this high total.
03-20-18	Clippers v. Wolves -3		109-123	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
Injuries and the toll of a long season are going to cause the Clippers to probably miss the playoffs. LA has lost three in a row and looked extremely fatigued in a 122-109 home loss to the Trail Blazers this past Sunday. Now the Clippers are playing for the fourth time in six days - all at different venues. The Clippers are minus their two best backcourt defenders, Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. Both are out for the season. Sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari is sidelined, too. Minnesota is trying to make the Western Conference playoffs, too, and is very strong at home going 26-9 at Target Center. The Timberwolves have defeated the Clippers the past five times. They are 2-0 versus LA this season with both victories coming at Staples Center by an averaging winning margin of seven points.
03-19-18	Nuggets +2 v. Heat		141-149	Loss	-115	6 h 8 m	Show
Denver is a bad road team. But the Nuggets are coming off one of their worst losses of the season, catch the Heat in their first game back from a West Coast triple and have covered five of the last six times when playing in Miami. I'm expecting a strong effort from the Nuggets after their coach, Michael Malone, justifiably ripped them following a 101-94 road loss to Memphis. The Grizzlies had lost 19 in a row entering that matchup. The Nuggets aren't going to have guard Gary Harris, an underrated player and their leading scorer. But Miami might continue to be without Hassan Whiteside and Dwayne Wade. Whiteside leads the Heat in reboundings and blocked shots. He's maybe the premier rim protector in the Eastern Conference. Wade had helped key Miami's bench. Whiteside has missed the past four games. His absence could mean a big performance from Nikola Jokic, who is playing at a high level.
03-18-18	Blazers v. Clippers -125		122-109	Loss	-125	13 h 53 m	Show
We're getting down to must-win mode in some NBA matchups. That's the case in this game for the Clippers. LA has lost two in a row falling to the Rockets and Thunder, both on the road. No shame in that. But those defeats dropped the Clippers to 1 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Following this home matchup, the Clippers play six of their next seven games on the road. The first four of those away contests are against the Timberwolves, Bucks, Pacers and Raptors. I doubt the Clippers will be favored in any of those games. So there is a tremendous sense of urgency for the Clippers to win this game. Portland is playing its best ball winning 12 in a row. This isn't so much a fade on the Trail Blazers as a play on the Clippers because of the spot. However, Portland has won nine of their past 12 wins at home. Two of their road victories during this span were against the Lakers and Suns. The last time Portland was away from Moda Center was 13 days ago. They won't go back on the road after this until next Sunday. The Trail Blazers don't need this game nearly as much as the Clippers being in good shape to earn the No. 3 seed in the West. Portland carries a high fatigue rating, too, playing for the third time in four days and without rest having defeated Detroit, 100-87, last night. The Trail Blazers have a marquee home game up next hosting the Rockets on Tuesday. There's the outside chance the Trail Blazers may not have their All-Star guard Damian Lillard for this game as the due date for the birth of his son is Monday. If the birth occurs earlier, though, Lilllard said he would be there for the occasion.
03-17-18	Warriors -3 v. Suns		124-109	Win	100	11 h 5 m	Show
Much has changed for the Warriors since their 129-83 waltz against the Suns in the team's last meeting on Feb. 12. Namely Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are all out. Golden State is 1-3 in its last four games having just lost two days ago to the lowly Kings at home. But if there's a team worse than the Kings it's the Suns. They are 1-17 in their last 18 games, losers of seven in a row. Phoenix is 2-22 in its last 24 games and may not have its best player and only consistent, legitimate scorer, Devin Booker. He's questionable because of a sprained right hand that rendered him ineffective in the Suns' last game, a blowout loss to Utah. I see the Warriors digging deep to beat this lowly foe. Golden State has a deep bench and still has star foward Draymond Green and solid veterans Andre Iguodala, Nick Young, David West and Shaun Livingston. The Warriors' next game is at San Antonio on Monday. They don't play again after that until Friday when Curry might be able to return. So the Warriors should have a very strong focus for this matchup, which normally wouldn't be the case considering how weak the opponent is.
03-15-18	Suns +14 v. Jazz		88-116	Loss	-105	6 h 6 m	Show
Utah is playing great and just destroyed Detroit, 110-79, at home two days ago. That was the Jazz's fifth straight victory by at least 14 points. Phoenix is 1-16 in its last 17 games and just was embarrassed, 129-107, at home by the Cavaliers this past Tuesday. That was only the third time in their last 11 games, though, the Suns have lost by more than 11 points. Understandably the marketplace isn't interested in backing Phoenix. The Jazz have been bet up enough, however, where I see value taking the Suns. The Suns want to redeem themselves from their bad loss to the Cavaliers. Devin Booker, their best player, criticized his organization following that loss for babying the players. The Suns are extremely young with only Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley having more than four years experience. But the Suns do possess some talent headed by Booker, the 10th-leading scorer in the NBA. Phoenix is 9-5 ATS the past 14 times it has been a double-digit 'dog. The Suns won't attempt to play their small ball against this opponent. So Chandler, their veteran big man and still a rebounding force, will draw decent minutes. He can keep Rudy Gobert in check. The Jazz can't be faulted for taking this opponent lightly. Utah averages less than 103 points a game so it's difficult to cover a margin this large.
03-14-18	Lakers v. Warriors -7	Top	106-117	Win	100	11 h 36 m	Show
The Warriors have been idle since Sunday having lost their last two games. Golden State hasn't lost three games in a row all season. Golden State is rested, fired-up and ready to unleash its frustrations against the Lakers. LA has been playing well, but isn't good enough to beat an elite foe. The Lakers also just beat the Nuggets in a highly-satisfying home victory last night in a very emotional and physical game. This marks the Lakers' third game in four days. They remain without injured second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram. The Warriors won't have Stephen Curry. They've had two games to adjust now to his absence. Golden State leads the NBA in all major scoring categories, including points per game and shooting percentage. The Warriors also rank third in defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers rank 27th defensively. They've allowed triple-digits in their last 13 games. The Warriors are by far the superior team and are in a strong situational spot here. The points are worthy laying.
03-14-18	Wizards -140 v. Celtics		125-124	Win	100	8 h 60 m	Show
At first this line may seem strange: Washington a road favorite against the Celtics. But there are reasons for this. The Celtics aren't playing that well going just 7-6 in their last 13 games. Worse for the Celtics is they are extremely banged-up. Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Daniel Theis and Marcus Smart are all out. Al Horford missed the Celtics' last game with an illness and is questionable here. The Celtics are likely ensured of finishing in second place in the Eastern Conference so this isn't a high priority game. Boston is well ahead of Indiana and Cleveland for the No. 2 spot, but trails Eastern Conference leader Toronto by four games. Washington is in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. Those losses came to Miami on the road and to Minnesota at home last night. The Wizards were idle the previous two days, though, so fatigue shouldn't factor. The Wizards are 20-14 ATS on the road this season, including covering five of their past six away matchups.
03-13-18	Nuggets v. Lakers +2		103-112	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
The Lakers are playing well winning seven of their last nine, including defeating Cleveland, 127-113, at home this past Sunday. The Lakers have covered 69 percent of their last 16 games. LA is home here with short revenge. The Nuggets are 11-20 on the road this season. There is bad blood between these two teams and it centers around the Nuggets punk guard Jamal Murray. The Lakers don't like Murry believing he hasn't shown proper NBA respect. The Nuggets just beat the Lakers, 125-116, at Pepsi Center this past Friday in an intense matchup that concluded with Lakers coach Luke Walton screaming at Murray and a number of LA players vowing payback. That time has come now. Julius Randle and Brook Lopez are playing at high levels. Lonzo Ball is healthy. The Lakers have scored at least 111 points in 10 of their last 12 games. Denver ranks last in defensive field goal and is weak on the road.
03-13-18	Hornets v. Pelicans -4		115-119	Push	0	17 h 29 m	Show
The Pelicans have Anthony Davis back and are due for a strong performance after losing the first two games of their homestand. Those losses were to the Wizards and Jazz. Now the Pelicans are dropping way down in class. The Hornets are nine games under .500 and headed for the lottery once again. They are 1-5 in their last six games. Their lone victory during this span was a home win against the lowly Suns, who were minus their best player, Devin Booker. The Hornets nearly blew a 22-point lead, too, in that game as the Suns cut the margin to just two points in the fourth quarter. Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and 0-8 the past eight times versus Western Conference foes. The Hornets also could be without underrated big man Cody Zeller, who is dealing with knee soreness.
03-11-18	Rockets v. Mavs +12.5		105-82	Loss	-100	12 h 24 m	Show
Dallas is playing better since being called out for tanking. The Mavericks are 2-0 in their last two games defeating the Nuggets and Grizzlies by a combined 45 points. They could get back Dennis Smith Jr. from a quad injury today after the star rookie point guard missed the Mavericks' 114-80 waltz against the Grizzlies last night. The Mavericks should have more motivation than the Rockets in a triple-revenge spot. Houston is 3-0 versus Dallas this season. The Rockets' average win margin in these three games is 10 points. Perhaps the biggest factor, though, in backing the home 'dog is I'm not expecting James Harden to play for the Rockets. This is Houston's fourth road game in six days. The Rockets have a far more challenging game on Monday when they host San Antonio. So the word is the Rockets are going to give Harden a chance to rest his sore knees by sitting him out here. Houston doesn't figure to care much about this matchup and could be in a letdown moood after its 17-game win streak was ended by the Raptors this past Friday night.
03-11-18	Warriors v. Wolves UNDER 226	Top	103-109	Win	100	10 h 51 m	Show
You probably know Golden State is the highest scoring team in the NBA. But the Warriors also are a strong defensive team, too. They rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. Golden State should be motivated to play a much stronger defensive game than its last appearance when it lost, 125-108 on the road to the Trail Blazers Friday. The Warriors had to play that game without rest. The Under has cashed four of the past five times the Warriors have played on one day's rest. Karl-Anthony Towns is the Timberwolves' leading scorer with Jimmy Butler out. He'll have to face Draymond Green, one of the top defenders in the league. So I'm not expecting the Timberwolves to have a big scoring game. The key, though, is can the Timberwolves hold the Warriors down enough to make this Under work? I believe the circumstances are right for this to occur. Minnesota is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau knows his team has to tighten their defense in order to overcome the loss of Butler, their top scorer but also their best defender. The Timberwolves should have a lot of defensive intensity. They also draw a beat-up Warrors squad minus Stephen Curry, who averages 26.3 points a game. He's out with an ankle injury. David West and Andre Iguodala aren't likely to play either. Jordan Bell and Patrick McCaw are definitely out. This heavily reduces the Warriors' depth and bench strength. This also is a day game with a start made even earlier by daylight savings time kicking in. Note, too, there is a strong Under history with 13 of the last 16 between these two teams going below the total when played in Minnesota.
03-10-18	Magic +11.5 v. Clippers		105-113	Win	100	13 h 4 m	Show
Less than 24 hours after a highly satisfying 116-102 home win against LeBron James and the Cavaliers, the Clippers host the lowly Magic. It's going to be tough for the Clippers to get up for this opponent especially since the Magic are likely to be without their two leading scorers, Aaron Gordon (concussion) and Evan Fournier (knee). The Magic played one of their worst games without those two losing 94-88 on the road to the Kings last night. Orlando's offense was discombobulated against a weak Kings defense. But the Magic have had a game now to adjust to the absence of Gordon and Fournier. The Clippers have been winning with offense not defense allowing triple digits in each of their last 11 games. So I'm expecting a better and more inspired performance from the Magic, who don't play again until Tuesday. Unlike other bottom feeders, the Magic usually play hard and are not in tank mode. This is born out by the Magic covering 16 of the last 22 times as underdogs, going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and being 8-2 ATS off an ATS loss. Orlando has covered 17 of its last 24 games and is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing an opponent with a winning home mark. The Clippers have a three-game road trip up next that features matchups against the Rockets and Thunder. So Doc Rivers isn't going to burn out his best players against this opponent especially since his team played last night.
03-09-18	Wizards v. Pelicans UNDER 220		116-97	Win	100	5 h 41 m	Show
The Wizards don't play at a fast pace and could be without Otto Porter Jr., their third-leading scorer. The Pelicans are unlikely to have Anthony Davis. His minutes will be filled by defensive-minded players, Emeka Okafor and Cheick Diallo. The Pelicans are a high scoring team, but that scoring is going to be down without Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, who is out for the season.
03-09-18	Knicks +10 v. Bucks		112-120	Win	100	4 h 29 m	Show
The due factor is there for the Knicks, who are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games and were blown out at Portland during their last game this past Tuesday. Mainly, though, this handicap is a fade on the Bucks laying this many points. Milwaukee just isn't that strong of a team and are not in good form. The Bucks have lost six of their last seven games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 2-6 SU with one of those victory coming against the Hawks by five points. The Knicks nearly beat the Bucks when they last played at Bradley Center falling 92-90 on Feb. 2. The Knicks then lost by 14 points at home to the Bucks four days in the game where Kristaps Porzingis was lost for the season with an ACL injury. So the Knicks should have extra motivation here.
03-09-18	Rockets -120 v. Raptors		105-108	Loss	-120	17 h 39 m	Show
There aren't many teams who can trump the Raptors in Toronto. Just two really. Golden State and Houston. Kudos to the Raptors if they can end the Rockets' 17-game win streak. I don't see it happening, though. The Raptors may be the best team in the Eastern Conference, but they have fattened up their record by dominating weak teams. Toronto has failed to cover seven of the past 10 times, though, when playing opponents with a winning mark. Houston, by contrast, is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games versus foes with a winning home record. The Rockets also are 14-3 ATS the past 17 times playing above .500 opponents. The Rockets have added motivation for a 129-113 home loss to the Raptors suffered back in mid-November.
03-09-18	Rockets v. Raptors UNDER 220.5	Top	105-108	Win	100	17 h 37 m	Show
It's easy to think offense with all the stars going in this matchup. The linesmaker believes so, too, setting a high total. But Houston and Toronto are two underrated defensive teams. The Rockets rank 10th in defensive efficiency. They are giving up 105.2 points per game on the season, which ranks 12th. They have held three of their last five opponents under 100 points. The Raptors rank No. 2 in defensive efficiency. They play their best defense at home, too. Toronto has held its last three opponents at Air Canada Centre to an average of 94 points. This sets up as an intense showdown battle between arguably the two best teams in each conference. Both teams are in action for the third time in four days. So I'm not expecting an up-tempo attack from either team. This should be a playoff-type game with far more defense than perceived.
03-08-18	Celtics v. Wolves +2.5		117-109	Loss	-120	15 h 52 m	Show
Much is being made of the Timberwolves being without Jimmy Buttler. But the Celtics are likely to be missing their best player, too. Kyrie Irving is doubtful with a knee injury. The Celtics are playing their third consecutive road game. The Timberwolves have had five full days of rest after returning from a West Coast trip where they lost to Portland and Utah in their last two games. The Timberwolves should be rested and ready. Minnesota has been dominant at Target Center winning 15 of its last 16 there, including covering 11 of its last 14. Boston has failed to cover during four of its past five visits to Minnesota.
03-07-18	Magic +7 v. Lakers	Top	107-108	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
The Lakers haven't been this high of a favorite since they had Magic Johnson. OK, not true. They were minus 8 hosting the Suns a month ago. But you get the point. This is a very high spread for the rebuilding, youthful Lakers to cover especially against a team that is way below-the-radar in terms of excellent point spread marks and talent. Orlando is a lottery team just like the Lakers. But the Magic have an underrated roster especially now with rookie Jonathan Isaac healthy joining Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic are much better than other lottery teams such as the Kings, Suns and Hawks. So the Lakers are overpriced here especially without their second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram, who is out with strained groin. The Magic actually hold a winning record - 10-8 - in games Isaac has played in. The rookie power forward, who was the sixth overall draft pick, had missed two months with a sprained ankle. Orlando has some surprising ATS marks such as covering 15 of the last 20 times as an underdog and going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road contests. The Magic laid an egg against Utah's tough defense in their last game this past Monday at Salt Lake City. Orlando, though, has covered seven of the last eight times following an ATS loss. The Magic have covered 69 percent of their last 23 games and should find scoring a lot easier operating against the soft Lakers rather than the Jazz. LA is giving up an average of 115 points in its last nine games. The teams met in Orlando on Jan. 31 and the Magic blasted the Lakers, 127-105, despite not having Gordon then. Gordon leads Orlando in scoring and is averaging 17.2 points and 8.5 rebounds during his last six games.
03-07-18	Rockets v. Bucks OVER 215		110-99	Loss	-110	6 h 9 m	Show
The Rockets are the No. 2 scoring team and have far too many weapons for the Bucks to slow them down. Houston has scored 119 or more points in four of its last six games. The Bucks had matchup problems against the Pacers in two of their last three games, but produced 118 points in their last home game. That was against the 76ers, who rank in the top three in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Milwaukee has faced only two Western Conference opponents during its past 16 games. The Bucks gave up 134 points at home to the Nuggets and 114 points to the Pelicans in regulation also at home during those two meetings, both losses.
03-06-18	Pelicans v. Clippers -131	Top	121-116	Loss	-131	10 h 17 m	Show
The Pelicans are riding an eight-game win streak. The Clippers have been playing well, too, winning 11 of their last 15 games. The Pelicans have defeated a lot of bad teams in compiling their win streak beating the Nets, Pistons, Lakers, Suns and Mavericks. The Clippers need this game trailing the Pelicans by two games for the last playoff spot in the West. The Clippers have the stronger bench and are playing home. That's huge in this series. The Pelicans have lost in their last eight road games against the Clippers going 2-6 ATS in those matchups. The Clippers are 15-7-1 in their last 23 Western Conference games. They have one of the best rim protectors, DeAndre Jordan, in the NBA to neutralize Anthony Davis. LA has been winning with offense, though, scoring 122 or more points in all but one of its last seven games. New Orleans has the second-worst defense in the league.
03-05-18	Blazers -118 v. Lakers	Top	108-103	Win	100	22 h 15 m	Show
Portland has owned the Lakers winning 14 consecutive games against them, including the past eight in LA. Both teams are playing well, but the Trail Blazers are the superior team, in a better situational spot and have been strong as road chalk going 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS the past 12 times in that role. The Trail Blazers are riding a season-best six-game win streak. They are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 Western Conference games. Their backcourt is playing at an extremely high level especially Damian Lillard, who ranks sixth in scoring and 12th in assists. The Lakers rank 27th defense. They are giving up an average of 115.8 points per game during their last eight games. Yet the spread is close to pick because the Lakers have won five consecutive games and are home. LA could be flat, though, since it just concluded a four-game road trip with an impressive 116-112 win against the Spurs Saturday night. Notice who the Lakers beat in their other four games during their win streak - Mavericks, Kings, Hawks and Heat. Portland, by contrast, has defeated some very good teams during its win streak knocking off the Warriors, Jazz, Timberwolves and Thunder.
03-05-18	Pistons +7 v. Cavs		90-112	Loss	-110	11 h 10 m	Show
Detroit is hard to get behind right now. I understand that. But the Cavaliers' record in these type of games is astounding - astoundingly horrific. Cleveland has failed to cover 21 of the past 25 times as favorites. The Cavaliers are 3-23 ATS at home versus opponents with a losing road mark. Cleveland will be dealing with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin minus front-court starters Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson along with reserve Jeff Green. Thompson was averaging 11 rebounds per game during Cleveland's last four games. Thompson's absence puts unsung rookie Ante Zizic likely into the rotation. The Cavaliers are 4-4 since dealing for George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr. and Rodney Hood. They are better than they were without this infusion of youth and athleticism, but are going through an adjustment period and are not an elite team right now. The Pistons were 19-14 before point guard Reggie Jackson was injured. They are 6-8 since trading for Blake Griffin. They trail the Heat by four games for the final playoff spot in the East and trying to hang in as Jackson could returning to the lineup possibly next week. So the Pistons should play hard here. Griffin and Drummond give them a frontcourt edge on the Cavaliers. Detroit defeated Cleveland in the previous meeting, 125-114, achieving the victory without Griffin and Jackson.
03-04-18	Pacers v. Wizards -3.5		98-95	Loss	-107	11 h 4 m	Show
The Wizards are the better team, are playing home and catch the Pacers at the end of a four-game, seven-day road trip. Indiana opened its road trip losing to the Hawks and Mavericks before beating the Bucks two days ago. The Wizards have lost their last two games. Those matchups, however, were against the Warriors and Raptors. Those teams have the second and third-best records, respectively, in the NBA. Prior to meeting those two powerful foes, the Wizards had won 10 of 13. Now the Wizards are stepping way down in class. Washington remains without point guard John Wall. But the Pacers are without their main point guard, too, with Darren Collison sidelined due to a knee injury. The Wizards are 10-5 minus Wall. The Pacers are below .500 on the road and have lost in their last four visits to Washington. The Wizards won the last get together, 111-102, beating the Pacers at Indiana on Feb. 5.
03-04-18	Pacers v. Wizards UNDER 209.5		98-95	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
This has the makings of a sloppy, slow-paced matchup due to the scheduling layout. The Pacers are 9-2-1 to the Under in their last 12 away games. They could be dragging here as this marks the end of their four-game, seven-day road trip. The Pacers gutted out a tough, physical road victory against the Bucks Friday night. They remain without their starting point guard, Darren Collison. Washington also is off a tough Friday night game falling to the Raptors. Turnovers have been plaguing the Wizards lately. They've committed 33 in the last two games. The Under has cashed in the Wizards' last four games.
03-03-18	Jazz v. Kings OVER 202		98-91	Loss	-102	6 h 45 m	Show
The teams last met on Jan. 17 and the Jazz won 120-105 for a total of 225 points being scored. Utah is a defensive-minded team, but put up 116 points against Minnesota at home last night. The Jazz play looser on the road. In four of their last five road games they scored 129 points, 120, 133 and 115 points versus the Trail Blazers during their last away matchup. The Kings rank in the bottom-three in defensive field goal percentage and three-point defense. The Kings are 20-7-1 in their last 28 Western Conference games. The Over has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams in Sacramento.
03-02-18	Wolves v. Jazz UNDER 208.5		108-116	Loss	-105	7 h 39 m	Show
The Jazz are back to being a premier defensive club with Rudy Gobert back at 100 percent. The Jazz haven't surrendered more than 100 points during any of their last eight games. During this span they are holding foes to an average of 95 points per game. The Timberwolves just lost 108-99 at Portland last night. Their starters played big minutes. So the Timberwolves won't be looking to play up-tempo. They also are without their best offensive player, Jimmy Butler. The Timberwolves are not a good defensive team, but the Jazz are averaging only 87.6 points in their last three games.
03-02-18	Raptors -3 v. Wizards		102-95	Win	100	11 h 16 m	Show
The Raptors are the best team in the Eastern Conference right now. They are hot with 11 victories in their last 13 games and have revenge motivation for a 122-119 road loss to the Wizards last month. Washington won that despite missing John Wall. The Raptors know first-hand now how the Wizards have adjusted their style minus their star point guard. I'm expecting a much stronger defensive performance. Toronto ranks among the top eight teams defensively while being the third-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Wizards carry a higher fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. The spread is low enough to get behind the superior team that has covered in eight of its last 10 games.
03-02-18	Pistons v. Magic +2.5		106-115	Win	100	11 h 30 m	Show
Fading the Pistons on the road in this spread range is worth a small play. Detroit has lost 19 of its 28 road games. The Pistons' last road victory came against the Nets back on Jan. 10. Detroit is 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in its last six away contests. The Pistons have covered just 27 percent of their last 34 games versus sub .500 opponents. Orlando is playing hard. The Magic hung in against the Thunder and Raptors, during their last two games, and are 3-3 ATS in their six home games, including a straight-up victory against the Cavaliers. The Pistons' strength is up front with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. They are weak in the backcourt. The Magic can match up to the Pistons up front with a healthy Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. Rookie power forward Jonathan Isaac could provide a spark and needed defensive help as he's expected to play after missing the last 26 games with an ankle injury. The Magic rolled past the Pistons when they last hosted them winning, 102-89 on Dec. 28.
03-01-18	Wolves v. Blazers -4.5	Top	99-108	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
The Timberwolves are 2-0 since their on and off court leader Jimmy Butler suffered what likely is a regular season-ending knee injury. Those victories have come against the Bulls and Kings, two of the worst teams in the NBA. Now the Timberwolves face their first real test since Butler went down: a road game against the Trail Blazers, who have won four in a row. I don't see Minnesota passing this test. This isn't a good time to be playing on the road against the Trail Blazers, who are are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Damian Lillard is playing as well as anyone in the NBA averaging 37.1 points in his last six games. Portland is jockeying for playoff position and should encounter little trouble scoring big against the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves rank second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Portland is averaging 111.2 points in its last four games. Minnesota is a poor road club, too. The Timberwolves are 14-17 ATS away from Target Center, failing to cover in six of their last eight road matchups. They are 0-3 SU and ATS during their past three visits to Moda Center, including losing 123-114, to Portland on Jan. 24.
03-01-18	76ers v. Cavs -155		108-97	Loss	-155	17 h 45 m	Show
Is it time to trust the Cavaliers? I believe so, at least in this spot. As terrible as the Cavaliers were laying points during the first half of the season, they still won and covered their two earlier meetings against the 76ers winning by an average of 14.5 points. The retooled Cavaliers are a better team now having traded for George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood and Larry Nance Jr., who is coming off his first double-double with Cleveland. Give LeBron James weapons that fit and improve team chemistry and Cleveland is a legitimate threat again to win the Eastern Conference. The 76ers have taken the big step of being a playoff team this season. However, they rank below the elite teams of the Eastern Conference - Raptors, Celtics and Cavaliers. Philadelphia is much better at home. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games. The 76ers still lack the maturity to beat tough foes on the road whether it's shooting poorly, or committing too many turnovers. This marks the 76ers' fourth game in six days, too. Cleveland has dominated this series winning 14 of the last 15, including the past 11. James just doesn't lose to this team.
03-01-18	Lakers v. Heat -3.5		131-113	Loss	-115	16 h 6 m	Show
Miami is a top-four defensive team that is well-coached and has a solid bench. The Lakers are fancy with a lot of youth and questionable maturity. The situation sets up well here for the home Heat. Miami has been home since Saturday. The Lakers are fat and happy winners of three in a row. Note that those victories have come against the tanking Mavericks, Kings and Hawks. The Lakers have had a couple of days to enjoy the distractions of South Beach. LA is 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing on two days rest. The Lakers also have failed to cover during seven of their past nine visits to Miami. The Lakers are nine games below .500 on the road. I see the veteran Heat being the more focused team. They can't afford a loss here holding on to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami's front-court and bench strength just improved with the return of center Kelly Olynyk from a shoulder injury. Dwayne Wade has made his presence known, too, with his savvy play. Miami surrenders 101.6 points per game. Only three teams allow less per game. The Lakers are giving up an average of 117 points during their last six game
02-28-18	Pelicans v. Spurs -4.5		121-116	Loss	-105	18 h 21 m	Show
Back from their annual rodeo trip, the Spurs are playing at home for the first time in 25 days. I'm expecting a strong effort. San Antonio last played on Sunday. The Spurs won't play again until Saturday. Focus won't be an issue. San Antonio has covered 63 percent of its home games this season. The Spurs have been far better at home than on the road. New Orleans is playing its best ball of the season. The Pelicans are only 1 1/2 games behind the Spurs for fourth place in the Western Conference. San Antonio definitely is going to perceive a challenge here. I have a lot of faith in Gregg Popovich, who I regard as the best coach in basketball. The Spurs went 2-4 on their road swing. However, their last game was a confidence-inspiring 110-94 victory against the rejuvenated Cavaliers. Kawhi Leonard remains out for San Antonio. But unsung point guard Dejounte Murray is developing into a star. The Spurs have the coaching, depth, right situation and spot to cover this number.
02-28-18	Thunder -4.5 v. Mavs		111-110	Loss	-113	18 h 18 m	Show
The Mavericks upset the Pacers, 109-103, at home this past Monday. That ended a four-game losing streak and makes the Mavericks a bit fat and happy for this matchup. Dallas hasn't not won back-to-back games during their last 18 games. Oklahoma City's superstars have been complaining about not getting enough calls. That could change here. The Thunder hold the star power and rebounding edge to cover this number. They also have revenge motivation. The Mavericks upset the Thunder, 116-113, on New Year's Eve in Oklahoma City. Dallas also whipped the Thunder at home early in the season. The Thunder haven't been good as chalk this season - big chalk that is. As favorites of five points or fewer, the Thunder have covered 10 of the last 13 times.
02-27-18	Kings +12 v. Blazers		99-116	Loss	-108	8 h 28 m	Show
I don't see Portland taking Sacramento that serious following the Kings' 118-100 home loss to the Timberwolves last night. The Kings, though, have covered in their last four away matchups. They catch the Trail Blazers in a flat spot. Portland is playing at home for the first time in two weeks. Portland has bigger games on deck, too, hosting the Timberwolves on Thursday and Thunder on Saturday. Sacramento can't match Portland's backcourt star power, but the Kings have some promising youth - DeAaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovich and Willie Cauley Stein - to go with veterans Vince Carter and Zach Randolph and decent bench players in Buddy Hield and Skai Labissiere. They've helped the Kings go 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Sacramento has been a 'dog of five or more points.
02-26-18	Pacers -135 v. Mavs	Top	103-109	Loss	-135	19 h 54 m	Show
Not only are the red-hot Pacers playing their best ball, but they catch the Mavericks reeling from a double body blow of their owner Mark Cuban admitting his team is tanking and sexual misconduct allegation in the Dallas front office. The Mavericks are toxic right now. They aren't a very good home team either with an 11-19 record, 13-17 ATS. The Pacers have their season-best winning percentage. Indiana is 15-6 in its last 21 games. The Pacers have won four in a row and have a strong record of beating poor teams going 21-8 versus sub .500 opponents. They are 6-1 ATS the past seven times laying points on the road. The Mavericks are 2-11 in their last 13 games and 3-14 in their last 17 games. Dallas is last in reboundings. Indiana has improved its rebounding with Myles Turner back to 100 percent. The Pacers rank in the top-five in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Dallas is giving up an average of 113.8 points during its last six games.
02-26-18	Suns +7.5 v. Pelicans		116-125	Loss	-105	11 h 40 m	Show
I understand it's difficult to pull the trigger on the Suns especially when they are on the road. But this is a golden spot for Phoenix. The Pelicans are playing for the third time in four days. They defeated the Heat in overtime at home on Friday. New Orleans followed that up by coming back from an 18-point second-half deficit to beat the Bucks in overtime on the road Sunday. Anthony Davis played 43:21 minutes and Jrue Holiday logged 41:31 minutes against the Bucks. It's likley Davis and Holiday, the Pelicans' two best players with DeMarcus Cousins out, are going to see a reduction in minutes. If the Suns aren't competive early, the backdoor should swing wide open during garbage time as the Pelicans are in a huge letdown spot not only because of the situation but also playing the bottom-feeding Suns. The Pelicans are 1-8 ATS the past nine times hosting a foe with a losing road mark. New Orleans takes off for a four-game road trip following this matchup beginning with a tough game against the Spurs on Wednesday. So focus also is an issue for New Orleans and Alvin Gentry isn't one of the better coaches in the league. The Suns nearly upset the Trail Blazers in their last game losing 106-104 this past Saturday. Recently acquired Elfrid Payton continues to play well for Phoenix.
02-25-18	Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 225		119-114	Win	100	6 h 50 m	Show
The Houston Rockets are the second-highest team in the NBA. The Rockets just put up 130 points on the Nuggets when the teams last played on Feb. 9. Denver is on a scoring tear putting up 117 or more points during its last four games. The Nuggets, though, have allowed an average of 118.8 points per game during their last five games. The Over has cashed in Denver's last six games.
02-25-18	76ers v. Wizards -125	Top	94-109	Win	100	16 h 57 m	Show
Washington has defeated Philadelphia seven times in a row at home. I expect that streak to continue. The number is short because the 76ers have won a season-high eight games in a row and the Wizards are minus John Wall. Philadelphia, though, won six of those games at home. The 76ers have a losing road record. The 76ers have played weak competition lately. Their last four games have been against the Magic, Bulls, Heat and Knicks. This represents a big step up. Philadelphia also is playing without rest. Joel Embiid has played only twice in his pro career on back-to-back games. Washington is 8-3 without Wall. So the Wizards haven't missed their star point guard as much as perceived. The Wizards won't lack for motivation. Not only are they off an embarrassing 122-105 home loss to the sub .500 Hornets two days ago, but have double revenge against the 76ers. The Wizards had just upset the Cavaliers on the road on Thursday. So the spot was terrible for them against the Hornets. Both of Washington's losses to the 76ers were on the road, including a 115-102 loss on Feb. 6. The 76ers shot a blistering 55.6 percent from the floor in that game. The Wizards are above average in defensive field goal percentage and rank third in 3-point defense.
02-24-18	Bulls v. Wolves -6	Top	104-122	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
I don't expect Jimmy Butler to play after he injured his knee in the Timberwolves' 120-102 road loss to the Rockets last night. Butler's injury has had a drastic affect on this line. Too much in my view. The Timberwolves still have the three best players on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague. Minnesota has been dominant at home going 13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS with the lone loss occurring to the Rockets during this span. The Bulls are a far cry from the Rockets, who I consider the second-best team in the NBA and very close to the Warriors. Chicago has lost 10 of its last 12 games and has failed to cover in nine of its last 11. One of those victories, though, was against the Timberwolves at home, 114-113, on Feb. 9. The Timberwolves want revenge in what has become a grudge matchup because of Butler and Tom Thibodeau's former ties to Chicago. The Bulls are committed to rebuilding, even tanking, benching Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday in favor of Cristiano Felicio and David Nwaba. Cameron Payne also is seeing more time at backup point guard.
02-24-18	Magic +9.5 v. 76ers		105-116	Loss	-108	7 h 43 m	Show
The Magic's two best players, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, are healthy now. Both should be better in sync after getting in a game following the All-Star break. The 76ers are a viable playoff team. But I don't like them in this high of a point spread range. Philadelphia has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. Philadelphia has three big road games on tap starting with Sunday's matchup against the Wizards. That's followed by a Tuesday game against the Heat and then Thursday versus the Cavaliers. So this isn't an all-out spot for the 76ers. Orlando is well below the radar spread-wise covering its last eight road games while going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 overall games.
02-23-18	Spurs +4 v. Nuggets		119-122	Win	100	11 h 18 m	Show
I'll take Gregg Popovich against any coach given extra prep time, which is the case here. The Spurs have had nine days to think about a 117-109 road loss to the Nuggets in their final game before the All-Star break. San Antonio had defeated Denver five straight times before that loss. The Nuggets caught the Spurs playing without rest after having been at Utah the night before. So that marked two consecutive games in high altitude. The Spurs also were minus LaMarcus Aldridge, their best player with Kawhi Leonard out, and Rudy Gay in that game. Aldridge should play for sure here. The Spurs have traditionally fared well in Denver covering in 21 of their last 29 visits.
02-23-18	Clippers -4.5 v. Suns	Top	128-117	Win	100	16 h 15 m	Show
The Clippers have already played a game following the long All-Star break losing 134-127 to Golden State on the road last night. The Clippers are more experienced, professional and deeper than the Suns, an opponent they have dominated winning 15 of the past 17 times. This includes a 2-0 mark this season with the average victory being by 27 1/2 points. The Suns are in the argument for worst team in the NBA. They are tied for the fewest victories with 18 and have lost 12 of their last 13 games and 15 of 17. Of the Suns' past 13 losses, 10 have come by double-digits. The Clippers have regained legitimate playoff contender status going 13-6 in their last 19 games. They are 5-2 since dealing Blake Griffin to the Pistons for Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley. LA steps way down in class here after just playing the Warriors. There should be no fatigue factor for the Clippers having been idle for so long before playing last night. There will be a rust factor, though, for the Suns. There's also a maturity issue for the youthful Suns to see how they react from being off since Feb. 14.
02-23-18	Cavs -5 v. Grizzlies		112-89	Win	100	15 h 6 m	Show
The Cavaliers are much improved since acquiring George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. at the trade deadline. They are better defensively, younger and more athletic. They also have better chemistry. I was surprised when Cleveland lost last night at home to Washington. Memphis, though, isn't nearly as good as the Wizards. The Grizzlies, in fact, are tied for the fewest wins in the league with an 18-38 record. The Grizzlies have dropped seven in a row. They are facing the cold reality of missing the postseason for the first time in eight years. The Cavaliers are not only the better team but have stronger motivation and the edge of already having played a game following the nine-day All-Star break.
02-23-18	Celtics -115 v. Pistons		110-98	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
Detroit is 5-3 since acquiring Blake Griffin. The Pistons are tough up front now with Griffin and Andre Drummond. But their backcourt is weaker minus traded Avery Bradley and with Reggie Jackson sidelined. The Celtics can exploit this. Boston gets back defensive ace Marcus Smart from injury and astute Brad Stevens has had more than a week to game plan. I consider Stevens the top coach in the Eastern Conference. Even if the Pistons are improved following the Griffin trade - and that can't be fully determined yet - they still are a borderline playoff team at best and they hold a losing record. Boston is two levels higher than Detroit and is in the discussion for being the best team in the East. The Celtics limped into the All-Star break having lost three straight home games. I expect Stevens to right the ship following the long break. The Pistons are playing in their new Little Caesars Arena, but their homecourt advantage is overrated. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 home contests. Boston has covered in its last four visits to Detroit.
02-22-18	Wizards v. Cavs -5	Top	110-103	Loss	-110	14 h 32 m	Show
Cleveland is 2-0 against Washington this season - and this is when the Cavaliers' roster and chemistry was much worse than it is now. Spread-wise, the Cavaliers were the most disappointing team in the league pre All-Star break. But now the rebuild Cavaliers are much different and much better. They have won four straight games since retooling their roster getting young, more athletic and better defensively. Cleveland's offense hasn't suffered either. The Cavaliers are averaging 126 points during their four-game win streak. This is Cleveland's first home game, too, with its new fully integrated roster. The Wizards couldn't beat the Cavaliers when they had John Wall and I don't see them hanging close without him especially given the circumstances that line up here.
02-22-18	Nets +7.5 v. Hornets		96-111	Loss	-100	12 h 15 m	Show
The Hornets are just 15-15 at home. They are a lottery team just like the Nets and have no business laying this many points. The Nets limped into break losing seven in a row. They should come back rest, refreshed and rejuvenated. Brooklyn also should be at full strength with Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Caris LeVert expected to play after being out. Jefferson is an especially underrated player for Brooklyn. Brooklyn showed no quit last season winning 11 games after the All-Star break. The Nets have the fifth-best spread mark in the NBA and have covered seven of their last 10 road contests. There's a randomness factor, too, with both teams coming off a long break. Randomness is good when backing an underdog. Charlotte had a distracting bye week with the decision to look for a new general manager. The Hornets also have failed to cover the past six times after being idle for three days or more.
02-18-18	Team LeBron v. Team Stephen UNDER 341		148-145	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
In each of the last four years the total points in the NBA All-Star Game has been broken. The culmination was last year's game won by the West, 192-182. Those 374 combined points are the record. So why go Under the total this year? Because the league wants this game to become less farcical and more of a competitive matchup. That means intensity and some defense sprinkled in among the dunks and 3-point bombs. The league changed the format to where the All-Star rosters were picked by LeBron James and Stephen Curry. That could increase the pride level. The prize money for the winning team has been doubled, too, from $50,000 to $100,000. Six-figures isn't chump change even for NBA superstar millionaires. Several players have said these changes should increase the quality of play. I'm certainly not expecting playoff-caliber defense and intensity. But I am anticipating more than just what has been a glorified scrimmage. Yes, there still will be a lot of easy baskets scored. But with a total this high just a few minutes of cold shooting, or increased defensive pressure, is all that is needed to make this an Under.
02-15-18	Nuggets v. Bucks -3	Top	134-123	Loss	-105	16 h 40 m	Show
The game before All-Star break often is tougher on the road team - and Denver is not a good road club. The Nuggets are 8-19 away from Pepsi Center, including 1-7 in their last eight road contests. Their lone road win during this span was against the Suns, who I rate as the worst team in the NBA. Denver is surrendering 114.2 points a game during its past eight road matchups. This is the Nuggets' fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. It's a lot of traveling for them made worse with All-Star break starting Friday. Conversely, the Bucks are a solid home team winning 19 of 28 at Bradley Center. They are 9-2 since interim coach Joe Prunty replaced Jason Kidd. Morale and defense are much improved for the Bucks since Kidd was let go. The Bucks made a below-the-radar, but astute trade acquiring center Tyler Zeller. He can bother Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic, who is having a big February.
02-14-18	Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 230.5	Top	117-139	Loss	-108	9 h 32 m	Show
The perception is that two horrendous defenses are facing each other in this matchup. If you go by season statistics that's true. The Lakers rank 25th defensively and just surrendered 130 points to the Mavericks, the most they've scored all season. The Pelicans rank second-to-last in points allowed per game. But the current reality doesn't fit the sterotype. The Lakers had held their four previous opponents to an average of 94.2 points a game before playing the Mavericks. Those teams were the Suns, Nets and Thunder twice. Not one of them scored more than 104 points and all three teams rank among the top 19 in scoring. The Pelicans are better defensively nowadays having traded for Nikola Mirotic and adding Emeka Okafor, a defensive-minded center who had been out of the NBA since 2012-13. The Pelicans are adjusting to life without DeMarcus Cousins and just held the Pistons to 103 points in their last game two days ago. The Pistons had scored 111 or more points in four of their last five games before losing to New Orleans. A key to the Pelicans' defensive success against the Pistons was Mirotic's fine work guarding Blake Griffin. The Lakers are dealing with a rust factor since they last played on Saturday. The extra time should help them defensively with added preparation, but three full days off isn't a positive for their shooting.
02-13-18	Hawks +7.5 v. Bucks		92-97	Win	100	3 h 28 m	Show
Atlanta is in an ambush spot catching the Bucks in their first home game since returning from a four-game road trip. The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and minus key contributors Malcolm Brogdon and John Henson. The Hawks are below-the-radar going a much more respectable 8-9 during their last 17 games. Both teams average the same amount of points per game at 104. The Hawks have a good history, too, in Milwaukee covering in eight of their last nine visits.
02-13-18	Heat +7.5 v. Raptors	Top	112-115	Win	100	15 h 49 m	Show
Toronto has been a play-on team especially at home. Toronto has the best record in the Eastern Conference and the No. 1 home record in the NBA. The Raptors have won five in a row with their average winning margin being 21 points during this span. So why buck the Raptors? Spot, line value and Miami's track record in these instances. While the Raptors were destroying the Hornets at Charlotte on Sunday in their last game, the Heat were resting. Miami last played on Friday. You know that with the Heat you're going to get good coaching and game preparation from Erik Spoelstra, a top-seven defense, strong team effort and solid bench play enhanced with the addition of Dwayne Wade. The Raptors have lost only four home games, but one of them was to the Heat. Miami has a winning road mark, own a 15-7-1 ATS record the past 23 times playing Eastern Conference foes and have covered in five of its last six away games. The Heat also are 22-7 ATS during their past 29 road games versus foes with a winning home record. I want all this going for me. I like the spot, too, I perceive the Raptors being a little fat and happy while the fully rested Heat should be in line for a strong performance. This isn't by any means a fade on the Raptors. It's a play on the Heat with what I believe is enough line value to get involved.
02-12-18	Knicks +12 v. 76ers	Top	92-108	Loss	-103	16 h 45 m	Show
The Knicks aren't just tough to back on the road, but anywhere these days riding a six-game losing streak with only one cover during this span. But there's enough line value to get behind New York in this division matchup. Philadelphia has opened its five-game homestand with three straight wins and covers. The 76ers finish their homestand against Miami on Wednesday. The 76ers have become a playoff team because of the tremendous talent of youngsters Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. But Philadelphia doesn't have the maturity and that much talent to cover double-digit spreads without playing very well. This is a flat spot for the 76ers. Philadelphia has already dropped games to bottom-feeders, including the Kings twice, Nets, Suns, Grizzlies and Lakers. New York lost its best player, Kristaps Porzingis, for the season to a torn ACL. So the Knicks are in rebuild mode, which means minutes for hungry youngsters looking to make their mark such as their point guards, rookie Frank Nitlikina and newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, who was impressive in his Knicks debut Sunday in a 121-113 loss to Indiana. Fatigue shouldn't factor for the Knicks since they were idle Friday and Saturday. Michael Beasley has fulfilled Porzingis' role by averaging 18 points and 10 rebounds in two games replacing him. Beasley actually has played well during the entire season and now his role is greatly enhanced. Enes Kanter is having a big year and Tim Hardaway Jr. is healthy and underrated. The Knicks are a level higher than the NBA's worst dregs. They also have covered 11 of their last 16 games at Philadelphia. There's always the possibility of the 76ers resting the fragile Embiid. This will be the 76ers' third game in four days. Embiid hurt his knee in the 76ers' 112-98 win against the Clippers Saturday sitting out several minutes. He did return to the game. But the 76ers may choose to be careful with their franchise center in what appears to be an easy game for them especially with a tougher matchup on deck. The 76ers have a losing record when Embiid hasn't played.
02-11-18	Mavs +15.5 v. Rockets		97-104	Win	100	6 h 4 m	Show
I wasn't looking to step in front of the Rockets, winners of seven in a row, including burying the Nuggets, 130-104, this past Friday. Dallas isn't going to have Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews and backup point guard J.J. Barea for this matchup. The oddsmaker is begging to get money on the Mavericks and the marketplace has made Dallas even more inviting by betting the Rockets up. So I'll oblige by firing on Dallas at what I believe is an inflated number. Only once in their last 27 games have the Mavericks lost by more than 15 points. The teams last met on Jan. 24. The Mavericks were 6 1/2-point home 'dogs and lost 104-97. The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games against opponents with a winning home mark. Dallas also has covered in eight of its last 11 away matchups. The Mavericks had their best offensive showing of the season in beating the Lakers, 130-123, at home against the Lakers last night. So they should enter this division game with confidence. Not having Matthews is tough. He may be the Mavericks' best overall player, but Nowitzki isn't worth anything on the line being far over-the-hill. The Mavericks have some underrated talent with Dennis Smith Jr., Harrison Barnes, Yogi Ferrell, Dwight Powell and newly acquired Doug McDermott. Of course these players can't compare to the Rockets' loaded lineup headed by superstars James Harden and Chris Paul. But the Dallas youngsters should be counted on to play big minutes - and to play hard. Houston doesn't have any special incentive or motivation for this game. The Rockets, in fact, should use this game to cut back the overextended minutes of their star players since this is their fourth game in six days and they have a much more challenging game on deck when they play the Timberwolves on the road Tuesday. The Rockets have failed to cover in five of their last six home games versus foes with a losing road record.
02-11-18	Raptors -3 v. Hornets	Top	123-103	Win	100	6 h 57 m	Show
Normally an early start time would be bad for the road team. But the visiting Raptors have been idle since Thursday while the Hornets just flew back into Charlotte early Saturday following a four-game West Coast swing that conluded Friday night when the obviously tired Hornets could manage only 17 points in the fourth quarter against the Jazz in a 106-94 loss. Toronto has the best record in the Easterm Conference. Charlotte is 23-32 and playing for the third time in four days. It's doubtful the Hornets make the playoffs. The Raptors have dominated weaker competition losing just three times all season to below .500 opponents. Toronto has matched up well, too, to Charlotte going 2-0 this season winning by 13 and 18 points, respectively.
02-10-18	Wizards -5 v. Bulls	Top	101-90	Win	100	16 h 12 m	Show
The Bulls are 2-7 since losing point guard Kris Dunn to a concussion. One of those victories occurred last night when the emotional Bulls hosted their former star, Jimmy Butler, and former coach, Tom Thibodeau. Chicago upset Minnesota, 114-113, as 7 1/2-point home 'dogs coming back from 17 points down. I don't see the Bulls being able to repeat that emtional type of performance a second straight day. Chicago is 1-7 when playing in the second of back-to-back games. Not only will the Bulls be missing Dunn again, but also shooting guard Zach LaVine, who is averaging 26.5 points in his last four games after missing 42 games due to an ACL injury. So the Bulls are going to be missing their two most talented players. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg said he didn't want to play LaVine in this back-to-back spot so soon after his injury. The Wizards are vastly superior to Chicago missing those two players even though they remain without John Wall. The Wizards are 5-2 minus Wall during the past seven games, but those defeats have come in their last two games. They were against the 76ers on the road when they were playing without rest and to the Celtics two days ago in overtime. Washington hasn't lost three in a row all season. The Bulls have lost four in a row to Washington and are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times hosting the Wizards.
02-09-18	Hornets v. Jazz -5.5	Top	94-106	Win	100	17 h 46 m	Show
Jazz minus 5 1/2 hosting Hornets You may be surprised to know that Utah owns the longest active win streak in the NBA right now with seven consecutive victories. Expect the streak to reach eight after this game. The red-hot Jazz draw Charlotte in a vulnerable spot carrying a high fatigue rating. The Hornets are playing in their fourth road game in six days while coming off a tough overtime loss last night to Portland. Charlotte last won at Utah in 2006 having lost 10 road games in a row to the Jazz. Utah has added motivaiton for a 99-88 road loss to the Hornets last month. The Jazz are playing their best ball and can make a serious move in the West with eight of their next 10 games at home. Ricky Rubio has spurred the Jazz. He played well during the second half of last season and he's continued that pattern averaging 22.1 points, 7.7 assists and shooting 53.8 percent from the floor in the last seven games. The Jazz traded Rodney Hood for Jae Crowder on Thursday. Hood is the better offensive player, but this was a good trade for Utah. Crowder is the better all-around player and fills a greater need at small forward than Hood does at shooting guard where his minutes were limited with the rise of rookie Donovan Mitchell.Crowder is expected to play against the Hornets.
02-09-18	Pacers +4 v. Celtics		97-91	Win	100	15 h 18 m	Show
When the Pacers have Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner both healthy, which is the case here, they can be dangerous. Given this situation, Indiana is in a great ambush spot. The Pacers last played on Monday. Their game on Wednesday against the Pelicans was postponsed because of a wet floor. Indiana hasn't forgotten its last game against Boston. That occurred on Dec. 18 at home when the Celtics pulled off a one-point win when Terry Rozier stole the ball and scored a winning layup with 1.2 seconds left. It probably was the Pacers' toughest loss of the season. Oladipo, who leads the Pacers in scoring at 24 points per game, did not play in that game. Indiana is 6-2 in its last eight games that Oladipo has played in. While the Pacers should have plenty of energy and motivation, the Celtics drag themselves to Boston after nipping the Wizards in overtime at Washington Thursday night. This will mark the Celtics' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Celtics might get caught looking ahead, too, to hosting the Cavaliers on national television Sunday. That's the game where the Celtics will retire Paul Pierce's No. 34 in a special ceremony.
02-09-18	Pelicans v. 76ers UNDER 220		82-100	Win	100	6 h 7 m	Show
The 76ers have been playing good defense surrendering fewer than 100 points per game during their last three games. They've been last in terms of tempo during their past 10 games. There's a chance Philadelphia could be without star center Joel Embiid, too. He's questionable with an ankle injury. He leads the 76ers in scoring at 23.7 points a game. The Pelicans are down DeMarcus Cousins and haven't played since Monday because their Wednesday game against the Pacers was postponed due to a leaky roof. So there could be a rust factor. The extra time also enabled the Pelcians and their new addition, Nikola Mirotic, to work on defense and game plan for this matchup.
02-08-18	Celtics +2 v. Wizards	Top	110-104	Win	100	17 h 36 m	Show
Washington isn't a better team than Boston especially minus John Wall. The Celtics have covered 64 percent of their road games. If you think that is impressive try this: Boston is an amazing 10-1 (91 percent) as an underdog this season. The Celtics will look to redeem themselves after an embarrassing 20-point loss to Toronto this past Tuesday. The good news for the Celtics is that Kyrie Irving returned from injury and Terry Rozier continued to play at a high level. The Wizards had won five in a row before running out of gas in a 115-102 road loss to the 76ers on Tuesday. The fatigue factor is still there for the Wizards as this is their third game in four days and fourth in six days. Brad Stevens is the sharpest coach in the Eastern Conference. He'll have a good game plan to adjust to the Wizards' fill-in point guards. The Celtics rank either first or second in the major defensive categories. They surrender seven points per game than the Wizards.
02-08-18	Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 211.5		88-113	Win	100	8 h 7 m	Show
Early money has come on the Over in this matchup and I disagree with the line move. The Knicks are not a good road team - they've scored 90 and 73 points in their last two away matchups - and now don't have injured Kristaps Porzingis. The Knicks score 3.4 points fewer per 100 possessions without their scoring star. Toronto is a top-10 defensive club that plays its best defense at home ranking in the top-five in points per 100 possessions. The Knicks lack the scoring and penetrating point guards to dent Toronto's defense. The oddsmakers are calling for a blowout here. If that occurs, the Raptors would be able to rest DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery, their two best offensive players.
02-07-18	Nets +9.5 v. Pistons	Top	106-115	Win	100	17 h 56 m	Show
Brooklyn has some below-the-radar talented players. But the oddsmaker never gives the Nets much respect. Brooklyn is 19-36. Spread-wise, though, the Nets have the second-best ATS mark in the NBA. Brooklyn is at its point spead best, too, on the road where it constantly gets undervalued. The Nets have covered 62 percent of their away matchups this season. The Pistons are playing their best ball winning four in a row. They will have the two best players on the court in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Brooklyn, however, has some emerging young talent with D'Angelo Russell back healthy, breakout-guard Spencer Dinwiddie, emerging rookie Jarrett Allen and intriguing Jalil Okafor. It's a bonus if Rondae Hollis-Jefferson can suit up having missed the past six games with a groin injury. The Pistons are at their worst when laying big points going 2-8 ATS the past 10 times as chalk of four or more points. Detroit also is 1-10-1 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning percentage of less than .400. It's going to be easy for the Pistons to overlook the Nets especially with the Clippers on tap. Detroit hosts LA on Friday. Normally that would be a ho-hum nonconference matchup, but it has turned into a grudge game following the Clippers trading Griffin to the Pistons for Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley.
02-06-18	Thunder v. Warriors -10	Top	125-105	Loss	-102	21 h 10 m	Show
Darn this spread is high. But I want the Warriors going for me here being rested in a huge revenge spot and drawing the Thunder at low ebb. Oklahoma City embarrassed Golden State, 108-91, at home on Nov. 23. The Warriors don't get embarrassed too often. That also was the only time during the past eight meetings the Thunder have covered against the Warriors. The Warriors should be fresh being idle for two days. The Thunder, by contrast, will be playing for the fourth time in six days. They are 1-4 since losing underrated Andre Roberson, their best defender, for the season because of a knee injury. This is a big number to lay. Understand. But the Warriors have the offense to overcome it ranking No. 1 in the major scoring categories, including points, shooting percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. The Thunder have allowed each of their last three opponents to make at least 13 3-pointers. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant are all in line for big games.
02-06-18	Suns +8 v. Lakers		93-112	Loss	-108	7 h 12 m	Show
The Suns aren't going to have Devin Booker, who is their best player by far. But the Lakers are in a letdown spot and still will be minus Lonzo Ball. This is the Lakers' first home game since returning from a five-game road trip that concluded Sunday. They are coming off wins against the Nets and Thunder. The underdog and road team has covered the last four in the series. The Lakers lack the maturity to cover this big of a number in the letdown spot they are in.
02-06-18	Wizards +6 v. 76ers		102-115	Loss	-107	18 h 6 m	Show
The Wizards are 5-0 since losing John Wall to a knee injury. It's kind of ironic that Washington is playing its best ball since losing its best player. But the Wizards are doing a fantastic job of passing the ball recording 27 assists in each of their last five games, a franchise record. I prefer the 76ers taking points rather than laying. Philadelphia is 1-4 in its last five games. The 76ers have a lot of youthful talent that could be unfocused entering this matchup after all the celebrations going on in Philadelphia following the Eagles winning the Super Bowl.
02-06-18	Rockets v. Nets +10.5		123-113	Win	100	18 h 44 m	Show
There are two key handicapping factors when it comes to beating the NBA - sometimes going against logic and taking advantage of situations. Both apply here. The Rockets should bury the Nets - on paper. But this spot sets up well for Brooklyn. Houston goes from just having impressively beaten the Spurs and Cavaliers in nationally televised games to playing the 19-win Nets and their cast of no-names. The Rockets also have a much tougher game on deck when they play at the Heat on Wednesday. Before dispatching the Spurs and Cavaliers in double-digit style, the Rockets hosted the Suns and Magic. Those two teams have fewer victories than Brooklyn. The Rockets defeated the Suns by 11 and Magic by seven. Houston has covered only 32 percent of the time the past 29 times against sub .500 opponents. The Rockets also have failed to cover in five of their last six meetings versus the Nets. Brooklyn has been home for the last three games going 1-2. The Nets just lost 109-94 to the Bucks this past Sunday. Brooklyn coach Kenny Atkinson ripped his team after that loss. He's optimistic the Nets will play much better in this game. I am, too. The Nets have been huge money-makers as an underdog especially when catching four or more points going 21-11 (66 percent) in that role this season. The Rockets are talented enough, though, to cover a double-digit road spread here even if the Nets produce a strong effort. It's only fair to point that out. James Harden and Chris Paul can absolutely dominate. But if the Rockets do happen to build up a big lead, there would be no reason for Harden and Paul to play big minutes with a physical game in Miami looming Wednesday. So the backdoor should swing wide open if a garbage time scenario unfolds.
02-05-18	Mavs +7 v. Clippers	Top	101-104	Win	100	12 h 33 m	Show
Dennis Smith Jr. has started to live up to his strong rookie hype. The Mavericks have gone 13-4 ATS the past 17 times they've been 'dogs when Smith has been in the lineup. They have covered in seven of their past nine road contests and their confidence is up after ending a five-game losings skid with a victory against the Kings this past Saturday. I realize the Clippers are much better than the Kings. But Dallas gets up for this opponent still holding a justifiable grudge from when DeAndre Jordan said he was going to sign with the Mavericks as a free agent and then went back on his word returning to the Clippers. Dallas has won three of the last five in the series, including defeating the Clippers, 108-82, at home on Dec. 2. The Mavericks' bench is as good if not stronger than the Clippers' reserves bolstered by the return of sparkplug point guard J.J. Barera. He had missed three games until returning to dish off 11 assists in 24 minutes against Sacramento.
02-04-18	Bucks v. Nets UNDER 209		109-94	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
Perception-wise this total looks about right. But reality-wise, it is not. The Bucks are playing much stronger defense since sacking Jason Kidd. Milwaukee is giving up an average of 97.5 points on 44 percent shooting from the floor in its first six games under interim coach Joe Prunty. During Kidd's last 11 games, the Bucks yielded 107.9 points a game on 49.4 percent shooting. Jabari Parker will be playing in his second game of the season after returning from ACL surgery. He is rusty. The Bucks are without underrated scorer Malcolm Brogdon. The Nets aren't the up-tempo they were earlier in the season. They have become more half-court with more looks inside to emerging center Jarrett Allen. During their last eight games, the Nets have played at the fourth-slowest tempo in the league. They have failed to reach 100 points in four of their last five games.