Rocketmansports.net - Free Picks from Expert Hanidcappers

Become a Facebook Fan!

Follow Me on Twitter!

NBA Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-20-19	Grizzlies -108 v. Cavs		107-114	Loss	-108	16 h 14 m	Show
I understand this is bad versus bad. Only Cleveland is worse than Memphis. The Grizzlies have been playing better and I prefer their young talent over Cleveland's. The Cavaliers did win their last game, holding off the Hornets, 100-98, this past Wednesday. But that was just the Cavaliers' third win in their last 19 games. They have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 games and are 3-8-1 ATS during their past 12 home contests. Only once all season have the Cavaliers won two in a row. Memphis is 4-2 in its last six games and very well could be 5-1. The Grizzlies blew a 24-point second-half lead in a 126-122 loss to the Thunder on Wednesday. The Grizzlies have covered the last four times they've met a below .500 opponent. Memphis youngsters Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks are all playing well.
12-19-19	Nets v. Spurs -2.5	Top	105-118	Win	100	11 h 9 m	Show
At 10-16, the Spurs are off to their worst start under Gregg Popovich. Lately, though, the Spurs have shown life. They have won four of their last seven games, including defeating the Clippers and Rockets during this time frame. San Antonio should be 5-2 during this span with two victories against the Rockets. However, the Spurs blew a 25-point lead against Houston on Monday when they last played. The Spurs have had two days to deal with that loss and get psyched for this matchup. They draw Brooklyn coming off a 108-101 overtime road victory against New Orleans. The Spurs hold a frontcourt edge on the Nets with LaMarcus Aldridge and their guards have picked up their play. There also is a mental hurdle the Nets face here. San Antonio has owned the Nets at home beating them 16 times in a row! The Nets haven't won at San Antonio since 2002.
12-18-19	Celtics -120 v. Mavs	Top	109-103	Win	100	21 h 58 m	Show
Kudos to the Mavericks for ending the Bucks' 18-game win streak on Monday despite not having superstar Luka Doncic. The Mavericks achieved that distinction on the road. They are a much improved team. But they are not as good as Boston especially without Doncic, who remains out with an ankle injury. The Celtics are on a two-game losing streak with losses to the Pacers and 76ers. Boston has had five days to think about those defeats. The Celtics haven't lost three in a row all season. Expect Brad Stevens to have the rested Celtics super ready to square off against Dallas. Boston is 10-4-1 ATS the last 15 times they've been on the road facing an above .500 home team.
12-16-19	Spurs v. Rockets -10	Top	107-109	Loss	-109	16 h 13 m	Show
Gregg Popovich has been coaching the Spurs for 23 years. He's never had a season this bad. San Antonio is 10-15. The Spurs are even worse against the spread at 6-18-1 (25 percent), which is the worst ATS mark in the NBA. Houston is one of the best teams in the NBA. Yet when these teams last met two weeks ago in San Antonio, the Spurs won in double overtime, 135-133. The Rockets blew a 22-point lead in that game. That was also the game where the officials' mistakenly waved off James Harden's slam dunk basket. It was the most frustrating and controversial game of the season for the Rockets. Now Houston gets its chance for revenge. The Rockets not only are thirsty for payback, but they are off a surprising home loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. San Antonio is off an overtime victory against Phoenix also on Saturday. That game, though, was played in the high elevation of Mexico City. It was the fourth straight overtime game for the Spurs. So San Antonio could have a fatigue issue especially after playing Mexico City. The Spurs have failed to cover 17 of the last 21 times after a victory. The Rockets have a monster edge in the backcourt with James Harden and Russell Westbrook, while Clint Capela can hold his own in the frontcourt against the Spurs' big people.
12-13-19	Knicks v. Kings -8	Top	103-101	Loss	-105	22 h 39 m	Show
Quietly and well below the radar screen, the Kings have been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 15 of their last 19 for 79 percent! The Knicks find themselves in a very rare situation - being in a letdown spot. New York halted a 10-game losing streak with a 124-122 road overtime victory against Golden State on Wednesday. The Knicks are 6-21 ATS following a spread cover. They haven't won consecutive games all season. The key here is are the Kings good enough to cover this high of a number? They haven't been this large of a favorite all season. I believe the Kings can given how well they are playing and the situation. Sacramento has won three in a row knocking off the Mavericks, Rockets and Thunder. Those teams are all considerably better than the Knicks with the Rockets and Mavericks rating among the best teams in the Western Conference. Marvin Bagley III is back for the Kings. He's their best big man. The Kings play their next four games on the road starting Sunday. So motivation shouldn't be a problem. New York is playing its third road game in four days. The Knicks rate with the Cavaliers, Hawks and Warriors as one of the four worst teams in the NBA. Even after scoring 124 points against the Warriors, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in scoring, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Sacramento had no problem with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last month beating them, 113-92. It was the Kings' fourth win in a row against New York.
12-12-19	Mavs -5 v. Pistons	Top	122-111	Win	100	19 h 20 m	Show
First, note the venue. This game is being played in Mexico City. That's a plus for Dallas, which is much closer to Mexico than Detroit. The Mavericks also have several Spanish speaking players, including star point guard Luka Doncic. The Mavericks have been dominant away from home going 15-3-1 ATS (83 percent) in their last 19 road games. Dallas is at least one level, if not two levels, higher than Detroit. The Mavericks last played on Sunday. So they've had ample time to rest, prepare and stew over their last game, a home loss to the Kings that ended a five-game win streak. The Pistons have played a weaker schedule. They've met only three teams from the Western Conference, all of whom have losing records.
12-11-19	Lakers -6.5 v. Magic	Top	96-87	Win	100	18 h 40 m	Show
The Lakers are among the three best teams in basketball. They are a sizzling 14-1 in their last 15 games and unbeaten away from Staples Center going 11-0. I rate the Lakers close to three levels higher than Orlando. The Magic have consistently failed to step up against elite competition going 1-9 versus above average teams. The Lakers should be focused and energized having last played on Sunday. The Magic have failed to cover in five of their last seven home games.
12-09-19	Raptors -5 v. Bulls	Top	93-92	Loss	-109	10 h 25 m	Show
Toronto is in stop-the-pain mode on a season-long three-game losing streak. Those losses, however, have occurred to the Heat in overtime, Rockets and 76ers. Now the Raptors step way down in class taking on a lottery foe they have owned. Toronto has won won the past 10 meetings against the Bulls, including, 108-84, earlier this season at Chicago. It was the fifth straight time the Raptors have covered at the Bulls. The defending champions know how to get it done against weaker opponents. Toronto is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when facing below .500 teams. The Raptors may not have injured guard Fred VonVleet against the Bulls. He hurt his knee in Sunday's 110-104 loss to the 76ers. But starting point guard Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are back for Toronto. Toronto matches up well to the Bulls. The Raptors rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage while the Bulls are the second-worst shooting team in the league.The Bulls also played on Sunday and suffered a tough 110-105 overtime loss to the Heat on the road squandering a one-point lead in the final seconds. Rarely do the Bulls play well in back-to-back games.
12-08-19	Thunder v. Blazers -3.5		108-96	Loss	-113	19 h 57 m	Show
Portland is playing better than it did when it defeated Oklahoma City, 136-119, at home on Nov. 27 and defeated the Thunder, 102-99, on the road Oct. 30. The Trail Blazers were 4-1 in their last five games until falling to the Lakers at home, 136-113, this past Friday. No shame in that. I rank the Lakers as one of the two best teams in the NBA. Portland lost Rodney Hood, who was enjoying a strong season, for the year in that loss. Hood suffered a torn Achilles. I expect Portland to come back strong at home. Teams often rally and play well in the first game after losing a good player. The Trail Blazers have a strong history under Terry Stotts of playing well following a blowout loss, too. They are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times after suffering a double-digit defeat. Oklahoma City is a bad road club. The Thunder are 2-7 away from home with their lone road wins coming against the Pelicans and Warriors, who have a combined record of 11-36. The Thunder enter this matchup fat and happy after pulling off one of the more improbable victories of the season. The Thunder beat the Timberwolves in overtime at home on Friday. They forced overtime by scoring a basketball at the buzzer off a long pass after trailing by two points with 1.1 seconds left and Karl-Anthony Towns at the free throw line for Minnesota.
12-06-19	Wizards v. Heat -9.5	Top	103-112	Loss	-105	9 h 29 m	Show
Miami is 8-0 at home this season. Going back to last season, the Heat are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home contests. Miami shoots 51.4 percent from the floor at home compared to 45.1 percent away. The Heat give up 17 fewer points per game than the Wizards. Washington is 12-29-1 ATS the last 42 times it has been on the road facing an above .500 home foe. Not only is Miam vastly superior to Washington - which this point spread reflects - but it draws the Wizards being in a highly favorable situational spot. The line doesn't fully reflect that. Washington is off maybe its best game of the season, a 119-113 home win against the 76ers. The Wizards had lost three in a row prior to that victory. The Heat are off a disappointing, 112-93, road loss to the Celtics from Wednesday. Miami is 18-7-1 ATS following a non-cover. The Heat also are 14-2-1 ATS the past 17 times when going against a below .500 opponent. The Wizards are shorthanded in the middle with center Thomas Bryant sidelined with a foot injury. In addition, point guard Isaiah Thomas is dealing with a calf injury.
12-04-19	Kings v. Blazers -3	Top	116-127	Win	100	20 h 36 m	Show
You wouldn't know it from their Tuesday performance against the Clippers, but the Trail Blazers are back on track after multiple frontcourt injuries helped cause a rough 2-10 stretch last month. Portland had rebounded to win three in a row until getting blown out, 117-97, on the road by the Clippers last night. The Clippers are 13-1 at home and one of the five best teams in the NBA. The Kings are a likely lottery team again. They are missing their second-best scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and top big man, Marvin Bagley III. Both are injured and not expected to return to the lineup until later this month. In addition. Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a sore hamstring. He's the Kings' fourth-leading scorer and top reserve player. The Trail Blazers have fortified their All-Star backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum by taking a chance on Carmelo Anthony, who has played well. Center Hassan Whiteside is having a strong bounce back year, too, for the Trail Blazers after leaving Miami. The one positive to the Trail Blazers' loss to the Clippers last night was not a single Portland player logged more than 30 minutes. Portland had not played in three days prior to the loss to the Clippers. So there should not be a fatigue factor. Note, too, that Sacramento has lost during its last 11 visits to Portland.
12-01-19	Spurs +4 v. Pistons		98-132	Loss	-106	15 h 20 m	Show
The 7-13 Spurs probably are the most disappointing team in the NBA at this juncture. But unlike the Warriors, the Spurs still maintain All-Stars in LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. I'm not ready to close the book on any team with that talent especially one coached by Gregg Popovich. The Spurs showed they aren't dead by haltiing the Clippers' seven-game win streak, 107-97, on Friday. The Clippers are a top-five team. That should give the Spurs a much needed jolt of confidence. This is San Antonio's lone road game during a seven-game stretch. The Rockets are up next for the Spurs - and that's a probable loss. So San Antonio should be focused for this matchup. It's a big step down from the Clippers. The Pistons are seven games below .500 and that's having played only one Western Conference opponent so far, the Timberwolves. Detroit has two stars, too, in Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. But I would take the rest of the Spurs' lineup against the Pistons. The Spurs hold a winning record versus sub .500 opponents and have covered seven of the last nine times versus Detroit.
11-30-19	Nuggets -4 v. Kings	Top	97-100	Loss	-109	16 h 16 m	Show
This line is short. Denver is far superior to Sacramento. The Nuggets also are healthy. The Kings are missing their second-leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and best big man, Marvin Bagley III. The Nuggets enter this matchup well-rested and hot, winners of six in a row. Denver has been idle since Tuesday. The Kings are in a tougher situational spot even though they are the home team having just returned from a four-game East Coast trip. Denver is 5-1 on the road this season. One of those victories was against the Kings, 101-94, during the second week of the season when Fox was playing for Sacramento. The Nuggets won that matchup by seven points despite an off-game from their best player, Nikola Jokic, and making just 36.7 percent of their field goal attempts. Taking on the Kings always holds special meaning for Denver coach Michael Malone. He was fired by the Kings after coaching them for just two seasons. I regard Malone as one of the better coaches in the league. He has the Nuggets playing their finest defense ever, ranking No. 1 in the NBA in fewest points per game. The Nuggets have covered eight of the past 10 times against the Kings.
11-29-19	Jazz -6.5 v. Grizzlies	Top	103-94	Win	100	9 h 19 m	Show
The teams met just two weeks ago and the Grizzlies beat the Jazz, 107-106, as 7 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Jazz have huge revenge and the line this time around is lower. Mike Conley did not play well in his return to Memphis after being the Grizzlies' point guard for 12 years. Conley vows to be more focused and play better today. Utah made just 40.1 percent of its field goal attempts in that earlier loss to the Grizzlies. The Jazz are not only are anxious for this rematch, but ready to get back on the court after suffering an embarrassing, 121-102, road loss to the Pacers two days ago. The Jazz did get back star center Rudy Gobert in that game. He had been out two games with an ankle injury. The Grizzlies are in a major rebuild job. They've lost five in a row since upsetting the Jazz.
11-27-19	Knicks v. Raptors OVER 210		98-126	Win	100	16 h 15 m	Show
Just by the numbers this game should go Over. The Raptors have scored at least 113 points in seven of their last 10 games. They are ninth in the league in scoring and first in 3-point percentage. The Knicks are well below average in 3-point defense ranking 23rd. The Knicks have reached triple-digits in each of their last seven games, averaging 106 points during this span. But, wait, there is more. The Knicks spent their Tuesday practice working on increasing their tempo. New York coach David Fizdale wants the Knicks to play faster. The Knicks have gone Over 11 of the past 15 times (73 percent) when playing on two days rest. So with the Knicks looking to play more up-tempo the chances of this game flying Over have increased.
11-26-19	Wizards +10 v. Nuggets	Top	104-117	Loss	-109	10 h 34 m	Show
The Wizards are a lottery team. But they are winners when it comes to being big underdogs. Washington is 6-0-1 ATS when taking more than five points this season. The Wizards also are 5-1-1 ATS during their last seven road contests and have covered five of the past six times when meeting the Nuggets. Washington is the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA averaging 119 points. The Wizards should be pumped for this matchup off a bad home loss to Sacramento two days ago. This is the start of a four-game Western Conference swing for the Wizards that includes games against the Lakers and Clippers. The Nuggets are fat and happy going 3-0 on their current homestand with victories against the Suns, Celtics and Rockets. This is their fourth game in seven days. They won't play again until Saturday.
11-25-19	76ers v. Raptors +2		96-101	Win	100	9 h 55 m	Show
I'm not buying the Raptors as a home 'dog to the 76ers. Philadelphia may emerge as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, but the Raptors still are very dangerous at home even without Kawhi Leonard and injured Kyle Lowery. The 76ers know this better than any team. Toronto has defeated Philadelphia 13 straight times at home during the regular season going 9-3-1 ATS the past 13 times hosting the 76ers. Toronto is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home contests. The 76ers have lost five of their past six away games. Their only victory during this road span was against the lowly Cavaliers. There's a chance the Raptors get back injured forward Serge Ibaka, too. He's missed the last seven games with a sprained ankle.
11-23-19	Spurs -125 v. Knicks		111-104	Win	100	16 h 59 m	Show
How low can the Spurs sink? Not this low. The Spurs have lost eight in a row, something they had never done during the Gregg Popovich era. San Antonio may miss out on a playoff spot in the tougher Western Conference, but the Spurs are not a bottom-feeder like the Knicks are. DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge give the Spurs the two best players on the court. The Spurs' backcourt is weak, but so is New York's. The Knicks have failed to cover in 27 of their last 38 home games. The teams met opening night in San Antonio and the Spurs won, 120-111.
11-22-19	Rockets +4.5 v. Clippers		119-122	Win	100	21 h 12 m	Show
Paul George is back for the Clippers. George and Kawhi Leonard are one of the few tandems that can match Houston's superstar backcourt duo of James Harden and Russell Westbrook. It's going to take time for George and Leonard to jell, though. Harden and Westbrook have had much more time together. They are in sync now. The result is Houston going 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS in its last nine games. The Rockets defeated the Clippers just nine days ago, 103-92, laying 2 1/2 points. Harden burned Patrick Beverley for 47 points. Now look at the spread. It's too high to justify the Clippers being home and having George this time around.
11-20-19	Pistons +1.5 v. Bulls	Top	89-109	Loss	-104	20 h 29 m	Show
Both teams are struggling. But with Blake Griffin back to team with Andre Drummond, the Pistons have the two best players on the court. This spot favors Detroit, too, on several counts. Not only do the Pistons have revenge for a 112-106 road loss to the Bulls from three weeks ago when they were without Griffin, but they have been idle since Friday. The Bulls, by contrast, are in action for the third time in five days. Chicago is just 2-5 at home. The Bulls are minus injured Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen, their best big man, is off to a slow start shooting just 36.2 percent from the floor.
11-18-19	Pacers +4 v. Nets	Top	115-86	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
Indiana had won seven of eight games until losing on the road to the Rockets and at home to the Bucks in its last two games. Now the Pacers go back down in class to take on the Nets. Indiana has covered five of the past six times when taking on sub-.500 opponents. Brooklyn hosted Indiana back on Oct. 30 and the Pacers won, 118-108. The season was just beginning back then and the Nets were 3-point favorites. The Nets haven't been a good team so far yet this spread is higher. This is a favorable situation for Indiana and the Nets have an underrated key injury with guard Caris LeVert out until next month due to a thumb injury. He might be Brooklyn's second best player behind Kyrie Irving. The Nets finished a five-game, nine-day road trip by beating the Bulls two nights ago. Irving sat out that game because of a sore shoulder. I assume he's going to play here. It's an unexpected bonus if he doesn't. I'm taking the number now because if word comes out later that Irving won't play the line is sure to drop. The Nets' concentration level could be down a notch in their first game back from their long road journey. The Pacers rank sixth defensively, the Nets 27th. Indiana is giving up 12 fewer points per game than the Nets. Center Myles Turner is back from an ankle injury and looked good in his last game. Power forward Domantas Sabonis is having a strong season on a string of seven straight double/doubles. Turner and Sabonis give the Pacers a frontcourt edge. Indiana is minus injured guard Malcolm Brogdon. That's a significant missing piece. However, the Nets' guard advantage is reduced with LeVert sidelined. The Pacers have covered in nine of their last 11 games against the Nets, including covering the last five times in Brooklyn.
11-17-19	Hawks +13.5 v. Lakers	Top	101-122	Loss	-108	19 h 46 m	Show
The Lakers had to laugh at Atlanta if they were watching any of the Hawks-Clippers Saturday night game. The Clippers won, 150-101. It was the Hawks' worst loss since moving to Atlanta from St. Louis. The Lakers can't help but take the Hawks for granted. Look for the Hawks, though, to play the Lakers tough in this matchup. Not only is there the embarrassment factor from Saturday night, but the Hawks also shouldn't feel the normal fatigue associated with playing on the second of consecutive nights. Only one Atlanta player reached the 30-minute level Saturday due to the blowout. The game also was played at Staples Center, an arena both the Clippers and Lakers use as their home-court. So there is no travel involved for the Hawks. Note these trends, too: The Hawks have covered 11 of their last 16 road contests and are 9-5 ATS versus above .500 foes.
11-15-19	Spurs +3.5 v. Magic	Top	109-111	Win	100	16 h 60 m	Show
The Spurs are in a rough patch right now with three straight losses, including a 129-114 road loss to the Timberwolves in their last game this past Wednesday. However, the Spurs still are superior to the Magic. The situation sets up for the Spurs here and there is splendid line value, too. The Timberwolves played great in beating San Antonio. It happens. Teams run into a hot-shooting foe who comes in with their "A" game. Minnesota is a very improved team, too. The Spurs are not the dominant serious title contender of years past. But they remain a quality team with the best coach in the league, Gregg Popovich. The Magic are getting respect from the oddsmaker based on their last game, which was a smashing, 112-97, home victory versus the 76ers. Note, though, the 76ers were playing their second road game in 48 hours and sat out Joel Embiid. The Magic had been idle the previous two days so the situation set up great for them. This game isn't an ideal spot for the Magic. The Spurs are in full stop-the-pain mode. Even with their high scoring effort against the 76ers, the Magic still rank last in scoring and second-to-last in field goal percentage.
11-14-19	Mavs -7 v. Knicks		103-106	Loss	-109	18 h 28 m	Show
I want the Mavericks going for me in this rapid revenge spot. The Knicks stunned the Mavericks this past Friday upsetting Dallas, 106-102, as 11-point road underdogs. The Knicks made a stunning 14 of 28 shots from 3-point range. New York ranks last in the league in field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring. So that truly was a fluke shooting performance. Since that victory, the Knicks have lost to the Bulls and Cavaliers by an average of 19.5 points. New York is 2-9 on the season. The Mavericks last played on Monday, losing, 116-106, to the sizzling Celtics. Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.
11-13-19	Wizards +9 v. Celtics	Top	133-140	Win	100	17 h 34 m	Show
Washington is a lottery team. But that doesn't mean the Wizards lack talent. They are more than just the Bradley Beal show with promising youngsters Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant and Davis Bertans. The Wizards have a winning spread mark and are in an excellent situational spot here. Washington last played on Friday. The Wizards should be rested and motivated after being embarrassed at home by the Cavaliers in a 113-100 loss this past Friday. The Celtics are without Gordon Hayward, who suffered a broken hand during the weekend. Hayward was playing at an All-Star level. Boston managed to defeat the Mavericks, 116-106, on Monday without Hayward. This will be the Celtics' second game without Hayward so their motivation may not be as high. Focus could be an issue, too, for Boston. The Celtics take off for a five-game West Coast swing following this matchup. Boston takes on Golden State Friday on national TV. The Celtics' depth, lessened with Hayward's injury, will be tested since this is Boston's fourth game in seven days. The Celtics haven't been good at home either from a point spread perspective going 4-11-1 ATS the past 16 times.
11-12-19	Lakers -135 v. Suns		123-115	Win	100	10 h 58 m	Show
Kudos to the Suns on their unexpected 6-3 start. The Suns have been winning, too, despite Deandre Ayton being suspended. But the Lakers also have been winning with LeBron James putting up triple/double numbers. I like LA off a 113-104 home loss to the Raptors on Sunday. That ended LA's seven-game win streak. There's a chance Anthony Davis doesn't play because of a sore shoulder. There's also a possibility that point guard Rajon Rondo makes his season debut. I like the Lakers regardless of either player's status. The key for me is the Lakers' third-ranked defense and No. 3 ranking in 3-point defense. The Suns have been beating opponents with their 3-point marksmanship. I anticipate they are going to have problems hitting their perimeter shots against the Lakers, which they need to do without Ayton in the middle.
11-09-19	Pelicans -111 v. Hornets		115-110	Win	100	16 h 48 m	Show
Charlotte has been a mild surprise so far splitting its first eight games. I consider the Hornets, though, one of the weakest teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the superior talent even without injured Zion Williamson. I rate Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball ahead of anyone on Charlotte's roster. New Orleans should be motivated after being embarrassed, 122-104, at home by the Raptors on Friday. The Hornets just defeated the Pacers and lost to the Celtics. They have the 76ers on deck Sunday in a bigger game. This is their lone non-conference matchup during this four-game span. The Pelicans average nearly 12 more points per game than the Hornets. Lack of defense is the killer for New Orleans. But the Hornets don't have enough scorers to take advantage of that weakness.
11-08-19	Raptors v. Pelicans UNDER 235		122-104	Win	100	10 h 20 m	Show
These teams met opening night and the Raptors won, 130-122, in overtime. There were 234 points scored in regulation. The total sailed Over a consensus closing total of 229 1/2. Now we have a much higher total in a revenge spot for the home Pelicans with both teams talking about playing better defense and having had first-hand experience against each other. I trust Nick Nurse to make solid adjustments to keep the Pelicans' scoring down. Nurse proved himself during the playoffs last season. The Raptors allow 108.7 points and rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. Nurse wasn't happy, though, with the Raptors' defense in their last game, a 124-120 home win against the Kings two nights ago. The Kings were hot from deep range tying a franchise-record with 20 3-pointers. The Pelicans are the Pelicans. They are a high-scoring team that doesn't play much defense. It is difficult to get involved going Under in their games. But New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry is talking about defensive improvement and said a way to do that is be more patient on offense and not play such a helter-skelter style. If the Pelicans do slow things down it would be huge for the Under. It takes a lot to go Over a total this high. There is enough evidence for me here to go Under.
11-07-19	Thunder v. Spurs -4.5		112-121	Win	100	19 h 11 m	Show
Even when they had Russell Westbrook and Paul George, the Thunder still couldn't cover when playing in San Antonio. The Spurs have covered the past five times hosting Oklahoma City. I like the Spurs here to make it six straight home covers. Oklahoma City is coming off a 102-94 home win against Orlando on Tuesday. The Magic are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA and they got cold down the stretch against the Thunder. Now the Thunder draw a different foe in a different setting both of which are much more difficult. The Spurs are trying to avoid a three-game losing streak having lost, 103-96, at home to the Lakers and 108-100 to the Hawks on the road on Tuesday. The Thunder has played only two road games the last occurring back on Oct. 28. Oklahoma City is 0-2 away from home with a five-point loss to the Jazz and four-point defeat to the Rockets. San Antonio is the superior team, home and in a better situation trying to halt a mini-losing streak before it gets out of hand.
11-06-19	Bucks +1 v. Clippers		129-124	Win	100	21 h 54 m	Show
I don't know if this line will hold in the morning when bookmakers realize the Clippers are resting Kawhi Leonard. I believe the Bucks are the best team in the NBA. The Clippers don't have Paul George yet and with Leonard sitting out they are not as good as Milwaukee. So I will lock into the Bucks now. Leonard was leading the Clippers in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. Sparked by superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks were leading the NBA in scoring at 121.3 points per game.
11-06-19	76ers v. Jazz -125		104-106	Win	100	20 h 55 m	Show
Utah is in stop-the-pain mode with a two-game losing streak. The Jazz have been idle since Sunday. It's the first time since the season began the Jazz have had a two-day break between games. They should be well prepared and motivated. The 76ers, on the other hand, are playing their third road game in five days. The 76ers have a strong starting lineup, but weak bench. Philadelphia does get back Joel Embiid following his two-game suspension. The 76ers really missed him when they lost, 114-109, to the Suns on Monday. The Jazz have maybe the best rim protector in the league, Rudy Gobert, to slow down Embiid.
11-05-19	Magic +2.5 v. Thunder		94-102	Loss	-102	9 h 12 m	Show
It's easy to be down on Orlando. The Magic are the only NBA team yet to reach triple digits. They rank last in scoring and field goal percentage. Behind that headline, though, are the Magic ranking No. 2 defensively in the league holding foes to 98.2 points per game. Oklahoma City is way down from last season. Chris Paul is the Thunder's lone star and he's off to a slow start. The Thunder also could be without their best big man as center Steven Adams has missed the last two games with a knee injury. The Magic are way overdue to have a good shooting game. They have a decent perimeter shootier in Evan Fournier to go with strong inside players Aaron Gordon and All-Star Nikola Vucevic. Orlando has covered in six of its last seven trips to Oklahoma City.
11-04-19	Rockets -5.5 v. Grizzlies	Top	107-100	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
A 13-point road loss to the Nets this past Friday followed by a humilitating 129-100 defeat to the Heat on Sunday. Now do the Rockets lose for a third straight time? No. I'm getting behind the Rockets in stop-the-pain mode. I understand the Rockets are not in sync and their defense is horrible. But this game sets up well for Houston. The Grizzlies are among the worst teams in the NBA. They are in serious rebuild and won't be seeing positive signs for a while fielding an extremely young lineup with a new coach. Memphis also isn't likely to have their most promising big man, Jaren Jackson Jr. He's questionable with a sore knee. James Harden and Russell Westbrook each played less than half of the game in the blowout loss to the Heat. The prideful superstars should be in line for huge performances as Memphis is really struggling, too, defensively. The Rockets have covered five of the last six in the series.
11-01-19	Bucks -4.5 v. Magic	Top	123-91	Win	100	17 h 51 m	Show
Both Milwaukee and Orlando are 2-2. But that's where the similarity ends. The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the regular season last year - and they could be even better this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a favorite to win MVP honors. The Bucks have drawn three tough opponents during their first four games - Rockets, Heat and Celtics. The Magic are a borderline playoff team. Orlando has faced three easy opponents in its first four games - Cavaliers, Hawks and Knicks. Yet, the Magic are last in the league in scoring at 95.8 points per game. That's 24 fewer points per game than what the Bucks average. Milwaukee is off a road loss to the Celtics. The Bucks are 22-7 ATS following a defeat. This spread is too low given the quality of the two teams and the Bucks being in bounce-back mode.
10-30-19	Pistons +9 v. Raptors	Top	113-125	Loss	-105	8 h 15 m	Show
Games against Toronto always hold extra meaning now for Detroit. That's become they come against Pistons coach Dwane Casey's former team. Casey knows the Raptors and their personnel well having been their head coach for seven seasons until two years ago. The Pistons went 3-0 versus the Raptors last season and they should be up for this one, too. Detroit has covered in six of its last eight visits to Toronto. This is the Raptors' fourth game in six days. Toronto's next game is much bigger - at the Bucks. Blake Griffin isn't back for Detroit yet. But the Pistons have been getting solid play from Christian Wood. He looked good during preseason and that has carried into the season.
10-28-19	Cavs v. Bucks -15	Top	112-129	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
The Bucks are in the mood for a blowout after kicking away a 21-point lead at home in a 131-126 overtime loss to the Heat on Saturday. Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a fast start. The Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and have inexperienced guards. Cleveland, though, is coming off an emotional 110-99 home victory against Indiana on Saturday. The Cavaliers played extremely well in that contest in giving coach Jim Beilein his first pro victory. I don't think the youthful Cavaliers have the maturity to stay close to maybe the best team in the NBA while taking to the road. The Bucks are 21-7 ATS following a defeat. The Bucks are 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times laying double-digits. They beat the Cavaliers twice at home last season with the average winning margin being 19 points.
10-27-19	Heat v. Wolves -6.5		109-116	Win	100	14 h 17 m	Show
Great play from center Karl-Anthony Towns. The continuity of fielding the same lineup from last season. A good vibe under 33-year-old head coach Ryan Saunders, son of the late coach Flip Saunders. These are all factors why the Timberwolves are off to a 2-0 start. I expect Minnesota to move that record to 3-0 today as they are not only playing well but in a great situational spot. Minnesota draws Miami at home after the Heat just upset the Bucks, 131-126 in overtime, at Milwaukee on Saturday. The Heat accomplished this without Jimmy Butler, who won't play today either. Obviously this is a monster letdown spot for the Heat.
10-26-19	Raptors -3 v. Bulls		108-84	Win	100	11 h 46 m	Show
This line is too short. Both teams did play last night and won. The Raptors haven't fully developed their bench yet, but their seven-man rotation should not get fatigued this early into the season. Plus the Raptors had previously played last Tuesday when they opened the season. So they've had ample rest. Toronto is much the superior team. Even without Kawhi Leonard the Raptors are among the four top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are a borderline playoff team at best. Chicago lost to Charlotte in its first game. The Hornets could be the worst team in the NBA. Chicago then defeated Memphis, 110-102, last night in Memphis. So the Bulls won't be rested either flying in during the early morning hours. The Raptors have played the stronger competition going against New Orleans Boston last night. The Raptors lost, 112-106, to the Celtics on the road. Toronto is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times when playing on zero rest. The Raptors have the guard play with Kyle Lowery and Fred VanVleet to take advantage of the Bulls' weak transition defense. Toronto dominated the Bulls last season winning all four games by an average of 19.2 points.
10-25-19	Blazers -2.5 v. Kings	Top	122-112	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
Let's just say Luke Walton's coaching debut with the Kings was less than stellar. That's as kind as I can put it. Sacramento was whipped by the lowly Suns, 124-95, at Phoenix this past Wednesday. The Kings had Marvin Bagley and Buddy Hield in that game. Those are two of their three best players with Bagley being their top big man. Bagley is out now with a broken right thumb and Hield is questionable with an ankle sprain. He didn't practice on Thursday. The Kings are in transition learning Walton's system and now they have to adjust again. The youthful Kings are going to encounter an angry Trail Blazers squad that had their 18-game win streak in home openers ended by Denver this past Wednesday. Portland caught a hot Denver team that made 18 of 32 3-pointers while the Trail Blazers missed 21 of 28 shots from beyond the arc. I trust All-Star guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum far more than what Sacramento has right now. I also like Portland coach Terry Stotts much more than Walton. Portland is 17-8-2 ATS(68%) following a point spread loss.
10-24-19	Clippers -123 v. Warriors		141-122	Win	100	20 h 24 m	Show
The Clippers don't have Paul George yet. They do have Kawhi Leoanrd and maybe the best bench in the NBA. They also have played one game while the Warriors have yet to see action. I consider that a huge advantage for the Clippers. Take away Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguadola and Shaun Livingston and Golden State isn't the dominant force and team to beat as in years past. Now the Warriors are merely playoff contenders. The Clippers looked extremely good in beating the Lakers, 112-102, on Wednesday. They have the depth and defenders to bother Stephen Curry. LA certainly won't lack motivation. The Warriors eliminated the Clippers in the playoffs last season.
10-24-19	Hawks v. Pistons		117-100	Loss	-110	10 h 14 m	Show
Surprised by this game being in the pick range? Apparently there is some negative Detroit sentiment due to the Pistons playing Wednesday and being without Blake Griffin. He will miss the first five games of the season with an injured hamstring and sore knee. But I like that the Pistons already have played a game - and what a game! They defeated the Pacers on the road, 119-110. Andre Drummond had a monster performance with 32 points and 23 rebounds. An important takeaway is the Pistons' bench outscoring Indiana's reserves, 57-16. Now the Pistons play at home for the first time drawing the rebuilding Hawks. Atlanta has some intriguing young talent. But the Hawks are still in rebuild mode after having won fewer than 30 games each of the last two seasons. This is their first game of the season. Detroit doesn't just want to hand back that great opening night win by falling at home to Atlanta. The Pistons should be pumped. Fatigue shouldn't be such a big factor this early in the season and Detroit showed it has a bench. It's not too much to ask the Pistons just to win this game without having to cover a margin.
10-23-19	Wolves +4 v. Nets	Top	127-126	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
I like the Nets and their coach, Kenny Atkinson. Let me be more precise, though. I like and prefer the Nets in an underdog role. They made a huge splash in free agency signing Kyrie Irving, DeAndre Jordan and Kevin Durant, who likely is out for this season. The Nets are getting ahead of themselves. I'm not sold on them being a better team than the Timberwolves. Certainly Minnesota will have the best big man on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns. The Timberwolves bring back the same team from last season. That's a plus because of the continuity. The Nets had good chemistry last season. Let's see if that continues and how things work now that they have Irving, who didn't turn out to be a good fit for Boston last season. It's not a plus either for the Nets that they spend some of their preseason in China. By contrast, Minnesota is under-the-radar right now. Timberwolves coach Ryan Saunders is just 33, the youngest coach in the NBA. He has the Timberwolves playing up-tempo and firing up 3-pointers. That's popular with his players. The Timberwolves don't take a backseat to the Nets in terms of talent with a healthy and rejuvenated Jeff Teague at point guard, wing players Andrew Wiggins and Robert Covington along with Towns, one of the best big men in the game.
10-22-19	Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 231.5	Top	122-130	Loss	-110	20 h 35 m	Show
Maybe if Zion Williamson and Kawhi Leonard were playing this high of a total might be justified. But they aren't. So Under is the way to go here. Williamson gave a glimpse of just how good he is during preseason averaging 23.3 points and shooting 71.4 percent from the floor before suffering a knee injury. Now the Pelicans have to figure out their offense and scoring roles with go-to-guy Williamson out. New Orleans is breaking in four new starters. So there's a double adjustment period. Jrue Holiday is an offensive-minded point guard. Brandon Ingram has a hig ceiling. But the Pelicans' three other starters - Lonzo Ball, Derrick Favors and Kenrich Williams - are not big scorers. Toronto had a top-10 defense last season ranking ninth in defensive scoring and fifth in defensive field goal percentage. The Raptors are patient on offense moreso now with Leonard gone and Marc Gasol becoming a large part of the team. Gasol also is a strong defender. Note, too, the teams concluded preseason this past Friday. So there could be a rust factor.
06-13-19	Raptors v. Warriors -140		114-110	Loss	-140	18 h 5 m	Show
The Warriors won an extremely difficult road game this past Monday in Game 5. Golden State came back despite the horror of seeing Kevin Durant suffer a ruptured Achilles tendon and being down six points with three minutes left. The Warriors aren't champions for nothing. Not only are they a great team - even without Durant - but they have tremendous intangibles. I don't see them giving up their crown at home in what will be their final game at Oracle Arena. The team will be moving to the Chase Center in San Francisco next season. The proud Warriors don't have Durant, but they know that now for sure going into this matchup. Proper adjustments will be made. They do have a healthy Klay Thompson, Kevin Looney and DeMarcus Cousins. That's enough firepower given the greatness of Stephen Curry. The Warriors have the talent, savvy and coaching to hold off the upstart Raptors.
06-13-19	Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5	Top	114-110	Loss	-110	18 h 6 m	Show
It's easy to think offense with these two teams even without Kevin Durant. But these are two excellent, underrated defensive teams. The tempo has been down six possessions the past two games and the defensive intensity should be at its highest in this Game 6 with the Warriors facing elimination at home. Golden State has been bothered by Toronto's wing span and athleticism. Kawhi Leonard is a superstar because he's a great two-way player. The Warriors are averaging less than 100 points during their last two games. The Under has covered 75 percent of the time during Toronto's last 13 road games. The Warriors have held the Raptors to 105 points or less in three of the last four games.
06-10-19	Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213.5	Top	106-105	Loss	-110	13 h 45 m	Show
I'm expecting Kevin Durant to play. That changes everything for Golden State especially on the offensive end. Toronto no longer will be able to double team and trap Stephen Curry. The Warriors already have Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney back in the lineup. So they have numerous scoring options. Golden State was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA this season while ranking first in field goal percentage. They also ranked No. 3 in 3-point shooting accuracy. The Over is 6-1-1 during the Warriors' last eight road games. The Raptors are averaging 112.5 points in the series. They aren't going to dial back their offense, which ranked eighth in scoring during the regular season and fifth in field goal percentage. Kawhi Leonard is unstoppable and the Raptors' bench has emerged as a scoring entity. The Over has cashed the past six times the Raptors have hosted the Warriors.
06-07-19	Raptors v. Warriors -4.5	Top	105-92	Loss	-104	13 h 59 m	Show
Perhaps the Raptors do win the NBA Finals. But I don't see the Warriors going down a second straight time at home especially with Klay Thompson expected to play. Call it a rhythm or zig-zag play, but the Warriors are due to shoot better in this series. The Raptors are fat and happy after upsetting the Warriors, 123-109, in Game 3 on Wednesday and knowing Kevin Durant remains out. Before pouring dirt over the Warriors, let's remember just two games ago in Game 2 at Toronto. The Warriors held the Raptors to 37.2 percent shooting from the floor and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. The result was a 109-104 Golden State victory. I see this Game 4 matchup resembling that Game 2. The Warriors have the big-game NBA Finals-pedigree, a powerful situational edge being home down 2-1 and the quality defense to clamp down on the Raptors, who have been getting far better shooting games from a number of players than what was realistically expected from them.
06-02-19	Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 215	Top	109-104	Win	100	31 h 38 m	Show
I'm expecting a top-notch defensive performance from the Warriors in this Game 2 after losing Game 1. Draymond Green ripped the Warriors' transition defense following the game. The Raptors are going to hold up their share on the defensive end, too, with their length and tenacity. The tempo in Game 1 was not fast. Yet the total still sailed Over. Why? Try unbelievable shooting. The Raptors sank 59 percent of their two-point field goals. The teams combined to sink 56 of 63 free throws for 89 percent! The Raptors hit tough shot after tough shot. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Marc Gasol combined to hit 25 of 35 shots from the floor. That's not going to happen again, nor are the two teams likely to combine to make nearly 90 percent of their free throws.
05-30-19	Warriors +1 v. Raptors	Top	109-118	Loss	-105	82 h 56 m	Show
I give Toronto tremendous credit for overcoming Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals. I also believe the Raptors have the best player on the court in Kawhi Leonard. But Toronto is not in Golden State's class. The Warriors are a level higher. Disagree? Look at the series price. That should tell you what the oddsmaker believes. So I am not buying the Raptors opening a favorite in Game 1 of this championship series. The Warriors know they must win at least one road game to take this series. They will be fully prepared to give a strong effort in this opener. They have had extra prep time from sweeping the Trail Blazers, which helps Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson get healthy. The Raptors lack the Warriors' Championship Series experience having never been to this stage before. You wonder if they still might be on Cloud 9 after taking out the Bucks. The Warriors are 7-3 ATS when playing on three days rest or more. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS in that situation. Golden State always gets off to a good start in the playoffs winning 18 of 19 Game 1's under Steve Kerr, including going 3-0 this season beating the Clippers, Rockets and Trail Blazers by a combined 43 points in its series openers. Toronto, by contrast, lost Game 1 to the Magic and Bucks. There has been some sentiment towards Toronto because the Warriors weren't that sharp despite sweeping the Trail Blazers and Kevin Durant won't be in action. The Warriors have adjusted to Duran't absence, though. Curry and Thompson are shooting more and their bench play has picked up. Golden State's defense has been solid, too. The loss of Durant isn't enough to go against the Warrors at this price point.
05-25-19	Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 213	Top	94-100	Win	100	35 h 54 m	Show
Lost in the glare of superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard is the fact Milwaukee and Toronto are two very good defensive teams. The Bucks ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and defensive efficiency. If you discount a flat performance in Game 4, the Bucks have held the Raptors to an average of 102.5 points in regulation during the four other games in this Eastern Conference Finals. Nick Nurse has shown during this series that he is a very good coach with the defensive adjustments he has made. Leonard is a very strong defensive presence and the Raptors have the wing span and athletes to throw the Bucks off their shooting game. The Bucks are just 21 of 66 from 3-point range during the past two games for a shooting percentage of 31.8 percent. That's down nearly five percentage points from what the Bucks shot from beyond the arc during the regular season. The pace has slowed down, too. I don't see that changing in this pivotal Game 6 close-out game with the intensity level at full blast.
05-23-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6.5	Top	105-99	Loss	-107	21 h 31 m	Show
Look, you either believe in the Bucks, or you don't. I do - especially when they are home like here. Milwaukee had the best regular season mark both SU (straight-up) and ATS (against the spread). It has been the same in the playoffs where the Bucks have won and covered 10 of 13 times. The Bucks didn't play up to their capability in Game 3 yet it took two overtimes for the Raptors to put them away at home. I thought the Bucks would play much better in Game 4. The Raptors, to their credit, stepped up and protected their home floor with an impressive 120-102 win. Nick Nurse made some key defensive adjustments and Toronto's role players came through. Now it's the Bucks' turn. Perhaps it's just being glib to say that, but these are the facts: The Bucks are 21-5 ATS following a loss. They have covered 18 of the last 24 times after not covering in their previous game. They also haven't lost three games in a row all season! The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. They also ranked first in offensive rebounding. They are deeper than Toronto, better on the boards and stronger defensively finishing No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. In my view, there are only three players who can trump the greatness of Kawhi Leonard. That being LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has the advantage of being at home and healthier than Leonard, who has been hindered by a left leg injury. This is a big spread. I understand that. I hate having to lay more than six, which is a key number in the NBA. But so far the spread has not factored in any of the Bucks' 13 playoff games. The winner of the game covered the spread every time. There's the possibility, too, of the Raptors waving the white flag if they were to fall too far behind by resting Leonard knowing how important he'll be for Games 6 and 7.
05-21-19	Bucks -135 v. Raptors	Top	102-120	Loss	-135	33 h 43 m	Show
The Bucks didn't play well in Game 3. The result was a 118-112 double overtime road loss to the Raptors. Expect the Bucks to play much in this Game 4. The oddsmaker expects that. The difference is reflected in Milwaukee opening as a road favorite instead of an underdog as they did in Game 3. The oddsmaker has it right. The Bucks are the side I want going for me. Milwaukee has by far the better depth. This is huge because the Raptors are gassed especially Kawhi Leonard, who is playing hurt. The Raptors have no shot if Leonard doesn't produce a monster game. The Bucks have won and covered 10 of their 12 playoff games. It's not a big surprise considering they had the best SU and ATS mark during the regular season, too. Milwaukee also has been great in revenge spots - 12-1 SU, 10-2-1 ATS off a loss.
05-19-19	Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors	Top	112-118	Loss	-109	17 h 52 m	Show
We saw it in Game 3 with the Warriors beating the Trail Blazers by 11 points on Saturday. We're likely to see it here, too, in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The superior team is an underdog on the road yet easily wins straight-up. Maybe the Raptors can break that mold. I doubt it, though. Milwaukee was the best point spread team during the regular season. Milwaukee is the best ATS team in the postseason, too, going 9-1 SU and ATS. The Bucks have outscored the Raptors by 35 points during the last five quarters. What's become clear is the Raptors aren't good enough, nor deep enough, to beat the Bucks. Toronto hasn't solved Milwaukee's offense, nor its defense, averaging 101.5 points in the series, which is 13 points below its season average. The Bucks have too many weapons to go with with Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Raptors to keep up. Kawhi Leonard doesn't have the bench help, nor the veteran step-up that the Bucks have been providing for Antetokounmpo.
05-18-19	Warriors v. Blazers -127	Top	110-99	Loss	-127	20 h 47 m	Show
Normally I would have a hard time laying points with the inferior team. But this is the Trail Blazers' game to win - and I see them getting the job down here at home in this Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals being down 2-0. Portland showed it can outplay the Warriors. The Trail Blazers should have won Game 2 at Golden State, but blew a 17-point second half lead in losing, 114-111. The Trail Blazers have proven resilient all season especially in the postseason. They took out the Thunder in the first round after being swept by Oklahoma City during the regular season. Then they came back from a 3-2 series deficit to eliminate the Nuggets winning Game 7 in Denver. Portland's Terry Stotts is a very underrated coach. I like the adjustments he made from Game 1 to Game 2 in this series, including tighting up the Trail Blazers' pick-and-roll defense, putting Moe Harkless on Stephen Curry and freeing up CJ McCollum for better looks on his jumpers. If McCollum and Damian Lillard had even their normal shooting games the Trail Blazers likely win Game 2. The All-Star backcourt tandem, though, shot a combined 15-of-39 (38.4 percent) from the field. The pair missed 10 of their 12 fourth-quarter field goals. Those two are due to shoot much better. Portland shouldn't fold up either with the switch in venues to their home-court. Certainly the Trail Blazers won't lack intensity down 2-0 while the Warriors have to be feeling fat and happy. Not having Kevin Durant is going to catch up to the Warriors.
05-17-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6.5	Top	103-125	Win	100	19 h 13 m	Show
The Bucks not only finished with the best record in the NBA during the regular season, but also the best point spread mark covering 60 percent of their games. Milwaukee has been even better in the playoffs winning and covering nine of 10 games. The Bucks even covered a 6.5-point spread in Game 1 against Toronto despite not playing well until the very end. The Bucks were a bit rusty and Giannis Antetokounmpo is capable of much better. Look for the Bucks and superstar Antetokounmpo to step up their game here. If that's the case, Milwaukee should win by double-digits for the eighth time in 11 postseason games. Milwaukee is a dominant home team, is much deeper than Toronto and Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton are strong enough defenders to bother Kawhi Leonard. The Bucks aren't totally dependent on Antetokounmpo like the Raptors are on their superstar, Leonard. The Raptors had to go the full seven game limit with the 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinals. That took a toll on Leonard, who was babied during the regular season often sitting out games for rest purposes. Now Leonard is dealing with tough defenders and a fatigue factor. Kyle Lowery played extremely well in Game 1 of this series. But Lowery hasn't looked very good up until this point. I doubt he keeps that up. The Raptors have grown too accustomed to watching and waiting on Leonard to close out games. He's not going to be able to do that against this caliber of elite opponent. Leonard needs help and so far key Raptors aren't providing that. Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Danny Green aren't hitting clutch shots. The Bucks have covered five of the last six matchups against the Raptors. They are the superior team with upside considering their Game 1 performance. Toronto had their chance in Game 1 and blew it. Look for the Bucks to win this game much more handily.
05-16-19	Blazers v. Warriors OVER 217.5	Top	111-114	Win	100	17 h 54 m	Show
The Warriors don't need Kevin Durant to produce a lot of points. They are averaging 117 points in their last two games minus Durant. Stephen Curry is stepping up and Golden State's reserves are scoring much better. It helps that the Trail Blazers lack rim protection with Jusuf Nurkic out. Portland is giving up an average of 113.2 points during its last five games discounting its 100-96 victory against the Nuggets. A key to making this Over work is Portland getting its points. I expect the Trail Blazers to be less tight and shoot much better than the 36.1 percent they shot in Game 1 while committing a ghastly 21 turnovers. I like the open looks both teams were getting in Game 1. Damian Lillard was just 4-for-12 from the floor in the first game. Look for Lillard to play more aggressive and have a much more productive scoring game.
05-15-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6	Top	100-108	Win	100	20 h 56 m	Show
I want the Bucks going for me here in this Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Toronto has been up and down and fortunate to survive a Game 7 against the 76ers, Milwaukee has been dominant in the postseason just like in the regular season. The Bucks have won and covered eight of nine playoff games with seven of the eight victories occurring by double-digits. Milwaukee's average winning margin is 15.3 points. The Bucks don't want a repeat of their last series when they were ambushed at home by the Celtics in Game 1. Milwaukee hasn't lost since with Antetokounmpo averaging 30 points during the last four games. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard are a trade-off. Both rank among the top five players in the NBA. Milwaukee, though, is getting better backcourt play and is the deeper team. The Bucks have had the proper response for everything the Pistons and Celtics threw at them. It's a huge added bonus for the Bucks that underrated guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned after being out seven weeks with a foot injury. He may be the Bucks' best defender. The Bucks defeated the Raptors in three of four regular season meetings and have covered four of the past five in the series.
05-14-19	Blazers v. Warriors -7.5		94-116	Win	100	19 h 48 m	Show
Much is being made of Kevin Durant being out with a strained calf. But the Trail Blazers have their own injuries to deal with as Enes Kanter has a separated shoulder and Rodney Hood a hyperextended knee. Both are likely to play, but at less than 100 percent. Keep in mind, too, the Trail Blazers remain without their best big man, Jusuf Nurkic. Golden State has proven it can step up without Durant. Just ask the Rockets, who happen to be at least a tier higher than the Trail Blazers. Not only do the Warriors have home-court here, but also a favorable spot. Golden State hasn't played since Friday when it upset the Rockets on the road to end that series. Steve Kerr and his brain trust have had ample time to study the Trail Blazers and how best to utilize their players knowing Durant won't be on the court. The Trail Blazers are off a brutal seven-game series against the Nuggets that didn't conclude until this past Sunday with Portland scoring an upset road victory. The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS the past six times following a victory. They can't be blamed for coming up flat here with such little time to savor their huge series win against Denver.
05-12-19	76ers +6.5 v. Raptors		90-92	Win	100	8 h 22 m	Show
Toronto doesn't deserve to be trusted in clutch playoff games given its track record. The Raptors also have been terrible in this role going 9-18 ATS the past 27 times when favored by six points or fewer. Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the court. But Joel Embiid is close behind. Embiid had a huge Game 6 posting a plus-minus ratio of plus 40. Embiid has helped the 76ers outrebound the Raptors by 47 rebounds during the series, an average of 7.8 per game. Health is the key for Embiid. He was healthy in Game 6, which was played on Thursday. So he's had a full two days to rest. I prefer Ben Simmons over Kyle Lowery at point guard and Jimmy Butler is there to lend his considerable skill and veteran leadership to the 76ers.
05-09-19	Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215.5	Top	108-119	Loss	-105	21 h 59 m	Show
If the Trail Blazers are going to force a Game 7 with a home victory here in Game 6 they likely are going to have to do it with defense. Portland is averaging 102.2 points during regulation in its last four games. Portland heavily relies on the scoring of guard Damian Lillard, who is shooting just 39.2 percent from the floor during the past four games. The Trail Blazers aren't getting much frontcourt scoring production with Jusuf Nurkic out and Enes Kanter dealing with a separated shoulder and honoring Ramadan by not eating from sunrise to sunset. Kanter has managed only 14 points in the last two games making just 4-of-14 shots from the field. These teams do not play at a fast pace. I envision a slow-moving, ultra intense defensive battle.
05-08-19	Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors	Top	99-104	Win	100	19 h 40 m	Show
Some believed the Rockets were better than the Warriors last season when the teams met in the Western Conference Finals. But then Chris Paul got hurt and had to miss Games 6 and 7. The Warriors took advantage to win those games and the series. Paul is healthy this time around. The Rockets are improved and the Warriors have gotten worse. If there is any separation between the two teams now it is minimal at best, which is proven by no team winning by more than six points during the first four games of the series. These games have all been close down to the wire affairs. Yes, the Warriors are home now. But Houston has momentum and confidence having won two in a row. The Warriors are showing more fatigue. Their bench is struggling with just a combined 18 points during the past two games. Stephen Curry isn't 100 percent. Golden State also doesn't have a good point spread track record at Oracle Arena just 11-23-1 ATS (32 percent) the past 35 times there.
05-05-19	Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 210.5		116-112	Loss	-110	16 h 57 m	Show
Lost in the glare of the Trail Blazers' amazing 140-137 four-overtime victory against the Nuggets on Friday was that regulation ended, 102-102. That's a combined 204 points. Now, less than 48 hours later, the teams go at it again both facing a heavy fatigue factor. Many of the top players are coming off the heavest one-game work loads of their career. Some played an obsence amount of minutes: Nikola Jokic (64:58), CJ McCollum (60:01), Damian Lillard (57:59), Enes Kanter (56:58 on a separated shoulder) and Jamal Murray (55:03). This is unchartered territory for these players to come back strong after such a game. This is playoff basketball and the defensive intensity is sure to be up while the legs can't be there for jump shots. So I'm projecting a low-scoring, intense battle.
05-03-19	Bucks v. Celtics -127		123-116	Loss	-127	18 h 59 m	Show
Boston got its split in Milwaukee. I don't see the Bucks getting the better of the Celtics in this Game 3, which will be their toughest road playoff game yet. I like Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer. He deserves to be Coach of the Year. Still, he's trumped by Brad Stevens, who I regard as the best coach in the Eastern Conference. I trust Stevens to make the necessary adjustments with the teams having last played on Tuesday when the Bucks blew out the Celtics. Boston has covered six of the last seven times it has hosted Milwaukee. The Bucks are still likely to be without guard Malcolm Brogdon, who has missed the last 1 1/2 months with plantar fasciitis. Brogdon is the Bucks' best defensive player and the most underrated player on the team. This could be the Bucks' toughest game of the season - and the line is fair enough to back Boston.
04-30-19	Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors	Top	109-115	Loss	-106	27 h 45 m	Show
The Warriors escaped the Rockets last season in the Western Conference finals winning in seven games. Chris Paul didn't play in Games 6 and 7 last season because of injury. The Rockets lost both of those games. Paul is healthy now, the Rockets are better than they were at this time a year ago and the Warroirs are worse. The Rockets nearly beat Golden State in Game 1, but lost 104-100 because of official's calls that didn't go their way, making less than 30 percent of their 3-point shots and James Harden having a terrible shooting game going just 9-for-28 from the floor. I expect Harden to shoot much better. I also expect more calls to go in Houston's favor after the NBA has come under scrutiny for the unfair officiating against the Rockets when Houston faced the Warriors last year and in Game 1. P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela combined to score only four points on 1-for-6 shooting from the floor in Sunday's game. They should do much better especially Capela. The Rockets could be the most underrated defensive team in the NBA. They finished No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the final 15 games of the regular season. They held the Warriors 13 points below their season average while forcing 20 turnovers and coming up with 14 steals. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are less than 100 percent because of ankle injuries. DeMarcus Cousins is out. The Warriors are one of the worst point spread home teams going 10-23-1 (30.3 percent) in their last 34 games at Oracle Arena, including failing to cover 12 of the last 18 times. Houston has covered four of the past five times on the road against Golden State.
04-29-19	Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5	Top	113-121	Loss	-110	13 h 40 m	Show
Portland should have plenty of energy having been idle for six days. I see that energy being exerted defensively as their jump-shooting could suffer after such a long layoff. The Trail Blazers are 7-3-1 to the Under in their last 11 road games. The Nuggets aren't going to look to push pace after concluding a grueling seven-game series with the Spurs on Saturday winning, 90-86, at home. Denver gave up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NBA this season. More important, the Nuggets ranked No. 1 in 3-point defense. That's bad news for Portland guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Trail Blazers heavily rely on the outside scoring of those two. The Under has cashed in 13 of the Nuggets' last 16 home games.
04-27-19	76ers +6.5 v. Raptors	Top	95-108	Loss	-104	21 h 44 m	Show
I'll go with the 76ers' superior starting lineup against the Raptors' deeper bench. Toronto's depth may factor later on in this series, but for now both teams are fresh and should have their full energy. Philly has too many weapons for the Raptors. It's going to take Toronto coach Nick Nurse a lot longer to figure out the 76ers than it did the Magic, the weakest of any of the playoff teams. The Raptors don't have enough weapons to contain Joe Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons, who I'll take over Kyle Lowery in the pivotal point guard matchup. The Raptors have yet to prove they have exorcized their playoff demons. They lost at home in Game 1 to the Magic and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times when playing after three or more days rest. The 76ers are ready to take that next playoff step. They are confident coming off four straight wins and covers against the Nets, who are a better team than the Magic.
04-26-19	Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233	Top	129-110	Loss	-110	23 h 58 m	Show
Look for the Warriors to play intense defense after being upset, 129-121, at home by the Clippers in Game 5 on Wednesday. Golden State held the Clippers to 105 points after LA pulled a 135-131 win in Game 2. I expect a similar effort from the Warriors, who finished No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season, in this Game 6. Yes, there were 250 combined points in Game 5. But the pace was slow. The Clippers made an unbelievable 54.1 percent from the floor. They shot 47 percent from the field during the regular season. They made 42.5 percent of their field goals in Game 4 and hit only 37.2 percent in Game 3. So the Clippers' shooting percentage in Game 5 clearly was an outlier. Note, too, the two teams combined to make 44 of 48 free throws in Game 5 for 92 percent. That's certainly unlikely to be repeated, too, in this next game. Golden State actually has been a sneaky Under team. The Under has won in 18 of the Warriors' past 26 games.
04-25-19	Nuggets v. Spurs -2.5		103-120	Win	100	18 h 39 m	Show
Denver has made key necessary defensive adjustments to win the last two games and take a 3-2 series lead. Now it's up to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs to counter. I see the Spurs doing that especially playing at home. Popovich has long been the best coach in the NBA. The Nuggets have a terrible track record when playing at San Antonio having lost 14 of the past 15 times there, are 3-7 ATS following a pointspread cover and 4-10 ATS when playing on one day's rest. Denver hasn't won a playoff series since 2009. LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan are due to step for the Spurs.
04-24-19	Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 213		93-100	Win	100	6 h 44 m	Show
Utah has made the necessary defensive adjustments after getting blown out in the first two games of this series. Since then, the Jazz have held the Rockets to an average of 97.5 points in the last two games and under 40 percent shooting from the floor. This isn't a fluke. The Jazz always have been an elite defensive club. Rudy Gobert may be the best rim protector in basketball. The Rockets have been playing excellent defense for the past six weeks. This is going to be physical, intense matchup where defense should dominate. The Under has cashed six of the last eight times the teams have met.
04-23-19	Nets +8.5 v. 76ers		100-122	Loss	-100	9 h 23 m	Show
The Nets have proven spunky all season, almost always coming through with a hard effort. I don't see them going quietly through the night on the brink of playoff elimination here. This has been a bitter series. The Nets are down 3-1, but the series very well could be tied at 2-2. Brooklyn blew a 101-94 lead with 5:20 left in Game 4 before losing 104-101 on Saturday. Brooklyn has covered in seven of its past nine road games. The 76ers have a vast array of talent. But they have some immaturity and don't know how to win yet, which makes them vulnerable to overconfidence in this matchup. The Nets have excellent backcourt scoring depth and I like that their coach, Kenny Gattison, has shortened the rotation.
04-22-19	Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz		91-107	Loss	-108	20 h 0 m	Show
It was a given the Jazz were going to produce their best effort in Game 3 at home after losing the first two games to the Rockets on the road by an average of 26 points. Utah did just that. The Jazz held the great James Harden to 3-of-20 shooting from the floor and the Rockets to 38.4 percent from the field. Yet the Rockets still won and covered beating the favored Jazz by three points. The oddsmaker is done making the Jazz a favorite again. The demoralized Jazz aren't going to be the first team in NBA playoff history to come back from a 3-0 deficit and win a series. Harden isn't going to have a shooting game like that again. The Rockets want to end this series fast to keep pace with the Warriors. The Jazz lack the confidence and morale to come back here to win a game. Utah needs Donovan Mitchell to shoot well to hang with Houston and that hasn't been happening. Mitchell has made just 32.8 percent of his shots from the floor.
04-21-19	Raptors v. Magic +5.5		107-85	Loss	-105	15 h 20 m	Show
I like the Magic in an underdog role especially going against foes with a winning record. Orlando is 16-5-1 ATS the past 22 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. I see the Magic giving it their best shot not wanting to go into Toronto down 3-1. The Magic lost 98-93 to the Raptors this past Friday. That was their first home playoff game in seven years. The Magic should be less tight now. Orlando needs Nikola Vucevic to step up. He got going in Game 3 after being kept in check the first two games of the series. Toronto is 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times against Orlando.
04-21-19	Raptors v. Magic UNDER 207		107-85	Win	100	15 h 19 m	Show
The evidence is crystal clear. These teams have played three games so far in their first-round playoff series and the Under has won each time. The combined average score in these three games is 196.3 points. The Raptors have forced 44 Orlando turnovers and held the Magic to 37.8 percent shooting from the floor. Orlando is going to be at its most intense for this matchup. The Magic ranked fifth defensively during the regular season. So a strong defensive battle should ensue helped by both teams favoring a slow tempo. The Under has cashed the past seven times the Raptors have played in Orlando.
04-20-19	Bucks v. Pistons OVER 216		119-103	Win	100	5 h 44 m	Show
The Pistons haven't been able to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 25 points during the first two games of this series. Milwaukee has scored 121 and 120 points, respectively, in the series. The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. Detroit doesn't have the defense to stop them. The Over has cashed in eight of the Bucks' last 11 road contests. So the Pistons need to ratch up their offense, which they can do at home. Detroit is due to shoot much better than the 37.7 percent it is averaging from the field. It's a plus for the Pistons and the Over if Blake Griffin is able to play. He's questionable.
04-20-19	Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5	Top	117-103	Loss	-109	17 h 3 m	Show
The Nuggets haven't won in San Antonio in more than seven years, losing 14 straight times to the Spurs on the road. I don't see that changing here in Game 4 of their playoff series. The Spurs should be up 3-0 instead of 2-1, but blew a 19-point lead midway through the third quarter in Game 2. They are the clear better team and they have a strong home-court history. Second-year guard Derrick White has stepped up big-time for San Antonio giving the Spurs three major weapons along with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs have those players going for them along with a huge gap in playoff experience. While the Nuggets are involved in their first postseason experience since 2013, the Spurs are in the playoffs for the 22nd straight season.
04-19-19	Celtics v. Pacers -3		104-96	Loss	-105	18 h 47 m	Show
The good news for Indiana is its No. 1 ranked defense has held Boston to an average of 91.5 points during the first two games of this series. The bad news is the Pacers are down 0-2 in the series because their shooting has been way off. The Pacers, though, are far from outclassed. They led the Celtics by seven points at halftime in Game 1. They were leading Boston with less than a minute left in Game 2 before somehow failing to cover a 7 1/2-point underdog spread in a 99-91 loss. Sure Indiana misses its top scorer, Victor Oladipo. But the Pacers are due to shoot much better than 38.8 pecent from the floor. Boston ranks eighth defensively. However, the Pacers have failed to connect on shots in which they had a good look at the basket. Myles Turner, Darren Collison and Thaddeus Young should step up. The Pacers have a strong history of dramatically playing much better at home. The Celtics won just one of their eight road playoff games last season.
04-19-19	Raptors -4.5 v. Magic	Top	98-93	Win	100	16 h 19 m	Show
Nice job by the Magic in reaching the playoffs this season and upsetting the Raptors in Game 1. The clock struck midnight, though, for the Magic in Game 2 when they were buried, 111-82, by Toronto this past Tuesday. The Raptors are vastly superior. They could be among the four best teams in the NBA. The Magic can't hang against this type of focused opponent especially when their best player, Nikola Vucevic, can't produce. Vucevic has been held to an average of 8.5 points a game making just six-of-21 shots from the field.
04-18-19	Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237	Top	132-105	Push	0	19 h 3 m	Show
Golden State has great scorers. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson helped the Warriors finish as the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA this season. But the Warriors also are good defensively. They ranked No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. The Under has cashed in 19 of Golden State's last 26 games. Look for the Warriors to play concentrated, intense defense for 48 minutes after they squandered a 31-point third quarter lead in Game 2 in losing 135-131 at home to the Clippers. The Under has cashed a staggering 75 percent the past 33 times the Warriors have played after a loss. Making things even worse for the Warriors was losing center DeMarcus Cousins with a serious quad injury. His replacement, Andrew Bogut, played a season-high 17 minutes. The addition of Bogut at the expense of Cousins is huge for the Under. The Clippers aren't as good of a defensive club as the Warriors. But with the series now tied 1-1 and the scene shifting to LA, the Warriors know they are in for a battle. So expect both defenses to be at their peak.
04-18-19	Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5		108-118	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
I don't see the Nuggets ending a 13-game losing streak at San Antonio and upsetting the Spurs. The Spurs have far more playoff experience. They have dominated the Nuggets for 6 1/2 of the eight quarters during the first two playoff games of this series, both of which were in Denver. The prideful Spurs should have gone 2-0 against the Nuggets, but blew Game 2 in the series after leading by 19 points nearly midway through the third quarter. Denver is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times following a victory.
04-18-19	76ers v. Nets UNDER 227.5		131-115	Loss	-101	17 h 32 m	Show
It's easy to envision a high scoring game here after the 76ers buried the Nets, 145-123, on Monday in Game 2. But there is one key factor to consider: Jared Dudley is expected to play for the Nets. He missed Monday's game because of a sore calf. Dudley played in Game 1 and the Nets upset the 76ers, 111-102, with that total going Under by 13 1/2 points. Dudley's defense on Ben Simmons was huge in that Game 1 win for the Nets as Simmons could manage just nine points. Simmons posted a triple/double in Game 2 without Dudley to hound and frustrate him. Prior to Monday's loss to Philadelphia, Brooklyn had given up an average of 97.3 points in its last three games. The Nets have gone Under in six of their last seven home games. The Nets are sure to have their defensive intensity going as this is their first home playoff game since 2015. It would be a huge added bonus for the Under if Joel Embiid can't go for the 76ers. Embiid is dealing with a sore knee.
04-16-19	Thunder v. Blazers OVER 221	Top	94-114	Loss	-110	20 h 36 m	Show
Portland couldn't stop Russell Westbrook or Paul George during the regular season. They couldn't stop them in Game 1 of this playoff series. Only George and Westbrook can stop themselves by having bad shooting games. That's what happened in Game 1 as Westbrook, George and star reserve guard Dennis Schroder combined to make just four of 26 shots from 3-point range. George made only 8-of-24 shots from the field in Oklahoma City's 104-99 loss on Sunday. Now we have a slightly lower total and a strong belief the Thunder will shoot much better than 39.8 percent from the field and do far better than make just 5-of-33 shots from beyond the arc. Oklahoma City averaged a seventh-best 114.5 points per game during the regular season. The Trail Blazers' defense took a hit after losing center Jusuf Nurkic for the season with a broken leg. George says he's 100 percent now after being bothered by a sore right shoulder that kept him from playing in the Thunder's final regular season game. Portland didn't shoot well either in Game 1 making only 41.9 percent of its field goals. The Trail Blazers are the sixth-highest scoring team in the league averaging 114.7 points a game. They ranked ninth in 3-point percentage yet missed 11 of 15 3-point shots during the final three quarters. CJ McCollum is getting less rusty after missing 10 games down the stretch with a knee injury. Enes Kanter has stepped up well for Nurkic. Kanter is a better offensive player than defensive player. Both teams are strong when it comes to offensive rebounding. The Over has cashed in 75 percent of Portland's last 21 home contests going 15-5-1.
04-15-19	Clippers v. Warriors OVER 230.5		135-131	Win	100	13 h 32 m	Show
After all eight first-round playoff games went Under the total, I'm expected scoring to spike up in some of the Game 2's, including this one. The Warriors are the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA. No team shoots better from the floor than the Warriors. The Clippers ranked No. 5 in scoring. The tempo was there for an Over in Game 1. But the rust factor kicked in. The Clippers shot just 40.4 percent from the field. Their playoff inexperience from some of their youngsters showed. Expect a more efficient performance from LA. Golden State produced 121 points in Game 1. A big takeaway was the return to health of Stephen Curry, who was sizzling and scored 38 points. The Clippers are well below average defensively ranking 25th. The Warriors are fully healthy and capable of putting up a huge number versus this defense. The Over has cashed in nine of the last 12 games between the two teams.
04-14-19	Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers	Top	99-104	Loss	-109	5 h 2 m	Show
If you can't stop Russell Westbrook and Paul George you can't beat the Thunder. Portland couldn't stop either one. Westbrook averaged 29.5 points, 10 rebounds and 8.8 assists against the Trail Blazers this season while George averaged 38 points and 10.5 rebounds. The result was Oklahoma City going 4-0 versus Portland with an average victory margin of seven points. Now the Trail Blazers are without their best big man, injured Jusuf Nurkic, and their second-leading scorer, CJ McCollum, hasn't looked good since coming back late in the season after missing 10 games with a knee injury.
04-13-19	Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 232	Top	104-121	Win	100	23 h 59 m	Show
Despite a lot of scorers, these two teams have been sneaky Under teams in spots like this. The Under has cashed in 16 of the Clippers' last 23 road games. The Under also has cashed in 16 of the Warriors' past 21 games, including nine of their last 11 home contests. Defense should be at a premium, too, now that the playoffs have begun. Each team wants to make a physical statement in this Game 1. The Clippers have a lot of inexperience in their starting lineup with two rookies and third-year center Ivica Zubac, who had played very little until this season. Stephen Curry should play, but he is dealing with a sore ankle. So the Warriors could be limiting his minutues.
04-13-19	Nets v. 76ers UNDER 232		111-102	Win	100	21 h 27 m	Show
This total may be priced right based on numbers and statistics. However, there are key elements that point to an Under. The Nets are in the playoffs for the first time in four years. The 76ers are in a series where they are expected to win, so the pressure is on them. This should ensure a highly concentrated effort from both teams. Defensive intensity is ramped up during the playoffs. Also note this is a very early starting time being a day game. The 76ers have hadn't their starting lineup intact since Tuesday when they managed just 99 points against the Heat. All five of the 76ers' starters sat out the team's final regular season game against the Bulls this past Wednesday. So there could be a rust factor. It would hurt the 76ers more on offense if Joel Embiid can't play. He's questionable with a sore knee. The Nets could show tightness offensively lacking playoff experience. However, they have been playing outstanding defense holding the Heat to 94 points and Pacers to 96 points during their last two games.
04-10-19	Kings +4.5 v. Blazers		131-136	Loss	-110	7 h 10 m	Show
The Kings aren't making the playoffs. But a victory here gives them 40 wins. That's a big deal for Sacramento. Word is the Kings are going to play their regular rotation and go hard here. Portland, on the other hand, will be sitting out its two best players as All-Star guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are not expected to play. The Trail Blazers have the playoffs on their mind not this game.
04-09-19	Raptors v. Wolves +7	Top	120-100	Loss	-105	18 h 17 m	Show
This is the Timberwolves' final home game of the season. So a strong effort should be forthcoming from them. Minnesota has been good at home going 25-15 SU, 22-18 ATS at Target Center. Toronto has a losing road point spread mark. This game also means nothing to the Raptors since they are locked into the No. 2 playoff seed in the Eastern Conference. It's the Raptors' final regular season game so obviously they would like to avoid any injury, which could mean sitting out a star such as Kyle Lowery and Kawhi Leonard. The Timberwolves are down to third-string point guard Tyus Jones. He's coming off a career-high in assists, though, and is bolstered by talented scorers, Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Dario Saric Minnesota has covered the past four times against Toronto, too.
04-07-19	Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 218		108-115	Loss	-105	18 h 20 m	Show
These teams have been playing good defense while playing at a slow pace. The Nuggets are the sixth-best defensive team in the NBA, while the Trail Blazers rank 13th. Portland has held four of its last six opponents to fewer than 100 points. Denver has gone Under the total in 21 of its last 28 games. Yet there were 229 points scored when the teams met this past Friday in Denver with the Nuggets winning, 119-110. Portland shot 48.8 percent from the floor and were 16-20 for 80 percent from the foul line. The Trail Blazers shoot 46.7 percent from the field on the season. The Nuggets hit 51.2 percent of their field goals and were 26 of 29 from the free throw line for 89.7 percent. Denver shoots 46.6 percent from the foul line on the season and 76 percent from the charity stripe. I don't expect the teams to match those shooting performances especially the Nuggets as they are going to be sitting out their three top scorers, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap. The three combined to go 25-for-42 from the floor for 60 percent in Friday's game.
04-07-19	Nuggets v. Blazers -3	Top	108-115	Win	100	18 h 23 m	Show
Portland has short revenge for a 119-110 road loss to the Nuggets on Friday. That victory just about locked up the No. 2 seed in the West for the Nuggets. It gives the Nuggets enough cushion that they feel comfortable sitting out their three best players against the Trail Blazers. Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap are all going to miss this game putting the Nuggets at a huge disadvantage. Those three led the Nuggets to their victory against the Trail Blazers two days earlier scoring a combined 70 points. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times following a victory. Denver has been a mediocre road team all season with just a 20-19 away record. Portland is 30-9 at home and 12-3-1 ATS following a point spread loss. The Trail Blazers not only have short revenge motivation, but are going for playoff seeding still holding a chance at gaining the No. 3 seed. The Trail Blazers hold the No. 4 seed, one game ahead of the Jazz with Utah holding the tiebreaker. CJ McCollum is probable for the Trail Blazers. McCollum, the Trail Blazers' second-leading scorer, has missed the past 10 games with a knee injury. His presence should serve as added inspiration.
04-05-19	Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216	Top	110-119	Loss	-109	20 h 28 m	Show
Unlike other NBA games at this time, this one holds playoffs ramifications. The Nuggets hold the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. They are 1 1/2 games ahead of the Rockets and two games ahead of the Trail Blazers. The teams meet again in Portland on Sunday. So if the Trail Blazers manage a sweep they could be tied for the No. 2 playoff spot. So there should be a lot of intensity and defense in this game. Portland remains without two of its three best scorers with CJ McCollum (knee) and Jusuf Nurkic (broken leg) out. The Trail Blazers are playing more half-court because of these injuries, slowing the tempo while looking to feed big men Enes Kanter and Zach Collins. Only five teams have played at a slower tempo than Portland during the past 10 games. The Trail Blazers have stepped up their defense holding four of their last five opponents to fewer than 100 points. The Nuggets have become a huge Under team because of their slow tempo ranking 29th in pace during the past 10 games. If you discount a 116-point game to Golden State, the Nuggets are giving up 97.8 points per game during their last five matchups. The Under has cashed 78 percent of the time during the Nuggets' last 27 games going 21-6.
04-05-19	Knicks +17.5 v. Rockets		96-120	Loss	-109	9 h 11 m	Show
The Rockets just got through with road games against the Kings on Tuesday and Clippers on Wednesday. Houston won those games by 25 and 32 points, respectively. The Rockets have another easy home opponent on Sunday taking on the Suns. So this is a major flat spot for the Rockets. It would not shock in the least if they sat out starters, or greately reduced their minutes for this matchup.
04-04-19	Warriors v. Lakers +13.5		108-90	Loss	-110	21 h 27 m	Show
The Lakers have been playing better lately with no pressure and with LeBron James sitting out. LA is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS in its last five games. But I'm not kidding myself. If the Warriors want to bury the Lakers they can. I just don't see Golden State being motivated to do that. The Warriors pretty much locked up top seed in the West with their 116-102 home win against the Nuggets on Tuesday. Golden State is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times following a victory and has an easy finish to the regular season concluding against four of five lottery-bound teams. The Warriors host the Cavaliers on Friday so they likely aren't going to tax any of their stars. Steve Kerr also doesn't want to pile on, or embarrass, Lakers coach Luke Walton. Walton is a former assistant coach for the Warriors and Kerr. His job with the Lakers is in jeopardy. The Lakers have covered 10 of their past 14 home games when meeting a foe with a winning percentage greater than .600.
04-03-19	Celtics -115 v. Heat		112-102	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
The teams just met two days ago at Boston and the Celtics won, 110-105. Boston, though, had built up a 23-point lead in the second half before letting things slip. The Celtics are the superior team and they should be more careful in this quick rematch. The Heat had trouble matching up against Al Horford, who had a triple-double. Horford is playing his finest ball of the season averaging 19.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists during his last five games. Gordon Hayward also is playing his best ball coming off the bench. Miami has been better on the road than at home. The Heat are 18-21 at American Airlines Arena, 16-22 ATS there. The Celtics have covered in eight of their last 11 visits to Miami.
04-02-19	Nuggets v. Warriors -8	Top	102-116	Win	100	22 h 31 m	Show
I give the Nuggets tremendous credit for their outstanding season. But they are not in Golden State's class. When the Warriors are motivated they can bury any team, including the Nuggets. The Warriors have proven that in the last two meetings defeating the Nuggets by an average of 24 points the past two times. Denver is not a good road team as evidenced by covering only 42 percent of its road games this season. The Warriors will be focused. They are hitting their stride after destroying the Hornets, 137-90, this past Sunday at home. Denver enters the matchup trying to fix its offense. The Nuggets are averaging fewer than 95 points a game during their past five games. Golden State ranks No. 2 in scoring at 117.7 points a game. The Warriors rank No. 1 in field goal percentage. The Nuggets aren't as good as the Warriors and the timing for this showdown matchup isn't good either for Denver.
04-01-19	Pistons v. Pacers -5.5		102-111	Win	100	8 h 2 m	Show
Situation, key injury and past history all point to the Pacers being the right side here. The Pacers are in stop-the-pain mode as they battle for playoff seeding having dropped seven of their last eight games. They suffered a tough two-point road loss to the Celtics on Friday, but then laid an egg at home against the Magic, losing 121-116 on Saturday. The Pacers surrendered 65 second-half points to the Magic. Indiana is the No. 1 ranked defense in the NBA. I see the Pacers playing with a great deal of intensity and tightening up their prideful defense. They draw the Pistons minus their most dangerous scorer, Blake Griffin, and coming off a highly-satisfying home comeback victory against the Trail Blazers on Saturday. Until that win against Portland, Detroit was 0-3 when they were minus Griffin. The Pistons are much worse on the road with a 14-24 record. The Pacers are much stronger at home with a 28-10 mark, 22-16 ATS. The Pacers have covered eight of the past 11 times at home when meeting an opponent with a sub .500 record on the road. The Pacers have dominated the Pistons, too, at home covering seven of the past eight times.
03-30-19	Cavs +10 v. Clippers		108-132	Loss	-109	12 h 44 m	Show
The Clippers have to be feeling good about making the playoffs in the tough Western Conference. The Clippers still have incentive in a battle for playoff seeding. But this is a vulnerable spot for them. LA just returned home on Friday after a four-game, seven-day road swing that concluded on Thursday night against the Bucks. This is nearly a back-to-back situation for the Clippers due to this being an afternoon game. It's easy to forsee the Clippers being sluggish, not fully focused having been gone for a week and taking on a terrible opponent they just defeated eight days ago. The Clippers are likely to save some of their energy, too, since they host the Grizzlies on Sunday. The Cavaliers have taken advantage of often overinflated lines to go 8-4-1 ATS during their past 13 games. They have covered six of the last eight times against opponents with a winning record. Cleveland is sailing below-the-radar screen right now. Cleveland played the Clippers tough in their first matchup, losing 110-108. Kevin Love gives the Cavaliers a modicum of respectability and Collin Sexton could be the most underrated rookie in the league. Sexton has scored at least 20 points in 10 of his last 11 games.
03-29-19	Hornets v. Lakers +2.5		115-129	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
LeBron James. That's all you need to know as to why Lakers here. Even though the Lakers are out of the playoffs and enduring a highly disappointing season, James makes the Lakers dangerous at home against mediocre opponents. He didn't play in the Lakers' last game, a 115-100 road loss to the Jazz this past Wednesday. But James was in full force leading the Lakers to home victories against the Wizards and Kings in LA's two previous games. James should be fresh for this matchup since he was rested against the Jazz. That's extremely bad news for the Hornets. James has destroyed this team through the years. His lifetime record against the Hornets is 47-6. This includes a 128-100 Lakers victory over Charlotte on Dec. 15 when James had a triple-double. The Hornets certainly can not be trusted on the road where they have played much worse going 11-24.
03-27-19	Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 215		99-107	Win	100	10 h 25 m	Show
These teams met fewer than two weeks ago at Indiana and the Pacers nipped the Thunder, 108-106, coming from 19 points down. So the Thunder have short revenge. But the Pacers have been idle since Sunday so they should bring a lot of energy - defensive energy that is. Indiana ranks No. 1 in the NBA in defense surrendering 103.9 points a game. The Under has cashed in six of Indiana's last seven road games. Oklahoma City has been playing strong defense, too, ranking in the top six in defensive efficiency during the past eight games. The Under has cashed in five of the Thunder's past seven home contests. This has become an Under series, too, with below the total cashing the past four times.
03-26-19	Rockets +4 v. Bucks	Top	94-108	Loss	-100	20 h 44 m	Show
You would have to go back to Feb. 21 to find the last time the Rockets lost by more than four points. That's a span of 17 games. Houston is 14-2 in its last 16 games. The Rockets' only two losses during this 16-game span occurred to the Warriors by two points and on the road to the Grizzlies by one point in overtime. The Bucks are shorthanded in the backcourt and close to cruise control leading the Raptors by four games for best record in the Eastern Conference. The Rockets have revenge for a 116-109 home loss to the Bucks from Jan. 9 and are playing for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. So this game is more important to them. In a matchup of superstars, primarily James Harden vers. Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks are missing a key underrated cog with Malcolm Brogdon out with a foot injury. He would have been the best defender against Harden. The Bucks also lost guard Tony Snell to an ankle injury in their win against the Cavaliers this past Sunday.
03-25-19	Suns +14.5 v. Jazz		92-125	Loss	-103	13 h 1 m	Show
This isn't a kill spot for the Jazz. It's actually a flat spot for Utah. The Jazz haven't played at home in nine days. They've been on the road during their past four games and are coming off a 31-point road win against the Bulls from Saturday night. It's going to be easy for the Jazz to overlook the Suns, who have multiple injuries and haven't been competitive versus Utah this season. The Jazz just rolled past the Suns, 114-97, at Phoenix on March 13. The Jazz, however, are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games. The Suns have covered their past six road games and are 9-4 ATS during their last 13 overall games.