The Knicks have won a season-high six straight games. But don't be shocked if the Knicks stumble here against the lowly Hornets, a team they have easily beaten in all three meetings this season.

How come?

Several key factors. The Knicks are going to be without their star power forward Julius Randle for the first time this season. Randle suffered a dislocated right shoulder in New York's Saturday victory against the Heat. This is a huge concern for the Knicks and a big distraction. Remember, the Knicks also don't have center Mitchell Robinson. He's out for the season. Robinson and Randle are the Knicks' two leading rebounders.

Another important factor is the timing of this matchup. The Knicks are coming off satisfying home victories against the Heat and Nuggets. This is just their second road game in 15 days. The Knicks return home for five games in a row following this matchup starting on Tuesday with a revenge game against the Jazz. So it's a very weird scheduling spot for New York.

The Hornets upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog last Monday. Charlotte won't lack motivation being home in a triple-revenge spot against an opponent that has other things on their mind and is in a letdown situation.

Yes, the Raptors are going through a rocky stage now losing eight of their last nine games.

But Atlanta isn't playing well either having lost and failed to cover in its last four games. The Hawks are an auto-fade for me in this price range.

The Hawks have by far the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 11-34 for 24 percent. They are especially terrible in this role going 1-11 ATS when favored by more than one point.

The Raptors have enough offense to take advantage of the Hawks' porous defense, which ranks in the bottom-three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage.

Denver is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Nuggets' losses during this span came to the Pacers this past Thursday on the final game of their five-game road trip and to the 76ers at the start of their road trip, which was 11 days ago.

The 76ers beat Denver, 126-121, in that game. Philadelphia hit 57 percent from the floor and 48 percent from 3-point range. The 76ers also shot nine more free throws than Denver. I don't see a repeat of that with the teams now meeting in Denver. This is rapid revenge for the prideful defending world champion Nuggets.

The Nuggets are 17-4 at home. The 76ers have failed to cover in four of their last five away games with straight-up losses to the Pacers, Hawks and Bulls during this time frame.

The Magic are finally healthy with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are so decimated with injuries that Scotty Pippen Jr. is now a key member of their rotation.

The spot is ripe, too, for Orlando. The Magic are off an embarrassing 27-point home loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday. They came into the matchup having beat the Heat the night before. Now they've had three full days to rest and prepare for this matchup.

Memphis is in a rare flat spot returning home after posting upset road wins against the Raptors this past Monday and Heat two days ago. The Grizzlies are a putrid 4-15 at home and not much better point spread wise at 5-14 (26 percent) ATS.

I understand Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring and is coming off a 70-point game this past Monday in Philadelphia's, 133-123, home win against the Spurs.

But that's not the lead story for me in this matchup. I see the top story being Indiana's emerging superstar, Tyrese Haliburton, is going to miss this game with a hamstring injury. Haliburton leads the Pacers in scoring at 23.6 points per game and tops the NBA in assists at 12.6 a game.

Haliburton's absence changes many things, including the total. He has missed seven of Indiana's last nine games. The Pacers have gone Under in six of their past seven games minus Haliburton, including a 114-109 home loss to the Nuggets this past Tuesday. That total went Under by 14 points.

It's not a coincidence the Pacers are an Under team without Haliburton. Not only do they miss his dynamic offense, but their tempo is slower without him. Indiana averages 124.6 points. The Pacers have averaged 108.2 points in their last four games minus Haliburton.

Embiid's scoring gets all the attention. But the 76ers are a strong defensive club. They give up the eighth-fewest points in the league and rank No. 1 in 3-point defense.

Indiana is in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row. The Pacers are going to have to dig deep to beat the 76ers. They are home, though, and should provide a strong defensive effort to compensate for not having Haliburton.

A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since.

The Warriors will honor Milojevic, showing a video tribute of him before the game.

Look for the Warriors to treat this matchup as their Super Bowl. I'm expecting a highly-motivated home performance from Golden State in memory of Milojevic.

Golden State did hold a full practice on Tuesday. Draymond Green also has been getting better since coming back from suspension. This will be his first home game since his Dec. 14 suspension for striking Jusuf Nurkic in the face.

Then there is the opponent. It's Atlanta, which has the worst point spread mark in the NBA by far at 11-32 ATS (25.5 percent).

The Hawks also are going to be without their best player, Trae Young. He missed the Hawks' last game, a 122-107 road loss to the Kings this past Monday, because of a concussion.

While the Warriors should be full of energy, the Hawks are playing for the fourth time in six days. It's also their fourth straight different venue.

After a pair of games against the Bucks, the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, the Pistons host the Hornets. Charlotte just upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog two days ago despite Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 62 points.

Charlotte and Detroit are vastly different opponents for each other after its last game. The Hornets and Pistons have bottom-eight offenses.

The Hornets just dealt high-scoring gunner Terry Rozier so their offense will be going through an adjustment. Charlotte coach Steve Clifford says he likes to stress defense. Well here's his chance. The Pistons may have helped get Bucks coach Adrian Griffin fired because Milwaukee permitted Detroit to average 131.5 points in two games vs the Bucks.

The Pistons should be fired-up having a chance at a rare home win. The Hornets are in letdown mode after stunning Minnesota.

Charlotte and Detroit played once this season back on Oct. 27 and there were just 210 points scored in the Pistons' 111-99 road victory.

Two healthy, high-scoring teams playing on extra rest. That's what we have in this matchup. Those factors should spell lots of points and the total going Over.

I'm expecting a lot of energy from both teams. Utah last played this past Saturday. New Orleans hasn't been in action since last Friday.

The Jazz are averaging 126.4 points in regulation during their last 11 games. If you discount a 126-97 road loss to the Celtics that average rises to 129.4 points. Utah is the 10th-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Pelicans have surrendered at least 123 points in three of their past five games.

New Orleans ranks 12th in scoring, ninth in field goal percentage and third in 3-point shooting percentage. The Jazz are below average defensively. The Pelicans are averaging 123.7 points in their last seven games.

Who's the most underachieving team in the NBA? If you go by point spread records it's the Hawks. Atlanta has covered only 26 percent of its games going 11-31 ATS.

The Hawks carry a high fatigue rating here and won't have their superstar, Trae Young. He's out with a concussion. This marks the Hawks' fourth game in six days and seventh game in 11 days.

Sacramento has lost four in a row with three coming on the road. Look at those games, though. The Kings were blown out by the 76ers at Philadelphia. But in their last three games, they lost by one point in overtime at the Bucks, fell on the road to the Suns by two points and then lost at home to the Pacers by five points. That was last Thursday.

So the Kings have ample rest and motivation. This is a great spot for them.

Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage.

The Magic got back Franz Wagner on Sunday. He scored 19 points in 28 minutes to help the Magic defeat the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown match between the first and second place teams in that division. Wagner had missed the previous eight games with an ankle injury. He's Orlando's second-leading scorer at 20.8 points. The Magic could choose to hold Wagner out of this matchup not wanting to risk him playing in a back-to-back situation so early in his recovery.

This also marks the Magic's seventh game in 11 days. Orlando is 2-5 in its last seven games even with the impressive victory against Miami.

The Cavaliers have defeated their last four opponents - Hawks, Bucks, Bulls and Nets - by an average of 22 points. It's not too much to ask them to just win against a tired, low-scoring Orlando team.

The Lakers are good enough - and the Trail Blazers are bad enough - for an LA blowout win here. The spot sets up for the Lakers.

After LA's impressive home wins and covers against the Thunder and Mavericks, two teams far better than Portland, the Lakers fell apart in an embarrassing, 130-112, home loss to the Nets this past Friday. 

The Lakers should be motivated to erase that frustration. They catch the Trail Blazers riding their first two-game win streak since late November. Portland nipped the Pacers and Nets at home by a combined five points. Those Portland victories are enough to catch the Lakers' attention. 

I understand the Lakers have been inconsistent all season. But Portland has the fourth-worst record in the NBA at 12-29. The Trail Blazers are last in scoring and in shooting percentage. So the bar is not high for the Lakers to get a needed blowout win.

I thought the Cavaliers would be good going into the season and Cleveland is living up to that. The Cavaliers are 11-3 in their last 14 games and have won six in a row. Cleveland just buried the Bucks by 40 points. That was on Wednesday. The Cavaliers haven't played since. So they should be well rested and well prepared.

The Hawks are in a letdown mode after upsetting Miami on the road, 109-108, last night when Dejounte Murray hit a 3-pointer with two seconds left.

Atlanta beat the Heat despite not having Trae Young, who ranks in the top-10 in scoring and is second in the league in assists. Young is questionable today due to illness.

The Hawks are the worst point spread team in the NBA at 11-30 (27 percent) ATS. Atlanta not only also is playing without rest, but for the fourth time in six days.

The Heat have had the sixth-best defensive rating during the last 10 games and they draw the Hawks without Trae Young. He's been ruled out due to illness. Young is the eighth-highest scorer in the NBA averaging 27.2 points. He's also No. 2 in the league in assists averaging 10.9 per game. 

Missing Franz Wagner, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, the Magic are averaging only 98 points during their past five games. 
Wagner is sidelined with an ankle injury. He's not expected to play here against the 76ers. Philadelphia ranks ninth defensively and first in 3-point defense. The Magic are the worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. So the Magic won't be earning many points from beyond the arc. 

Orlando is the sixth-best defensive team in the league. The Magic have lost four of their last five games. They just concluded a four-game road trip two days ago losing to the Hawks, 106-104. The Magic lost that game, but held the Hawks 15 points below their season average. The Magic have held each of their last four opponents well below their season average. 

The Magic aren't going to lack motivation here. It's their first home game in 10 days. They know they win by defense. Orlando also has revenge for a 112-92 home loss to the 76ers on Dec. 27. Joel Embiid sat out that game. 

Embiid is likely to play today, which is good and bad for the Under. Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 35.1 points a game. But he's also a tremendous rebounder and rim protector.

There are enough factors going to support the home underdog Raptors.

Since an embarrassing road loss to the Pistons, the Raptors have played better. Their offense is improved with the additions of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. They were acquired in a trade with the Knicks and have now played eight games with Toronto.

Following the loss to Detroit, the Raptors beat the Cavaliers, who are on a five-game win streak, and then went 2-4 on a road trip with three of those defeats occurring in close fashion, including a controversial one-point loss to the Lakers. Toronto then hosted the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA at 31-9, and played a strong defensive game in a 105-96 loss this past Monday.  

That makes this an important home game for the Raptors. It's also a revenge spot. The Heat downed the Raptors, 112-103, at Toronto on Dec. 6. Caleb Martin had a season-best 24 points and a career-best 12 rebounds in that game. I don't see Martin duplicating those numbers. 

Miami is in a fat-and-happy mood following a 96-95 overtime road win against the Nets two days ago. That was the Heat's third win in a row. Miami has Jimmy Butler back, but is down rotation players Jaime Jaquez and Kevin Love. 

The Raptors holding the Celtics 16 points below their season average is a strong positive and gives me confidence to back them here.

The focus will be on superstars Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. But I am thinking defense here in this high-profile matchup between the defending champion Nuggets and 76ers, who are anxious to make a statement with a win.  

Only three teams allow fewer points per game than Denver. The Nuggets just held the Pacers, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, to 16 points under their season average and their fifth-lowest score of the season. 

Philadelphia has a top-eight defense and rates No. 1 in defensive 3-point shooting percentage. Just two games ago, the 76ers held the Kings 18 points below their season average. 

Indiana has gone Under the total in its last three games. The Pacers haven't had emerging superstar Tyrese Haliburton during those three games. So it's not a coincidence those games have all gone Under. I find it directly related. Haliburton suffered a groin injury four games ago. Haliburton, who leads the NBA in assists and also is the Pacers' leading scorer, isn't expected back until later this month.

The Pacers have slowed their tempo and stressed defense more minus Haliburton.

The oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. He is looking at Indiana's league-leading 126.1 scoring average. However, minus Haliburton the Pacers have held their last three opponents to an average of 109.6 points. Those foes were good offensive teams, too - Nuggets (13th in scoring), Hawks (fourth in scoring) and Wizards (16th in scoring).

During these past three games, the Pacers are averaging 115.6 points. That's down nearly 11 points from their season average. The Under in Indiana's last three games has cashed by an average winning margin of 21.6 points.

The Pacers certainly aren't going to push tempo traveling into Utah's high altitude while playing for the third time in four days and second in two days.

The Jazz are a slightly below average defensive team. But they've held their last five opponents to an average of 114.8 points, which is four points below their season average of what they give up.

The Pelicans are fully healthy. The Mavericks are not. Luka Doncic is out with an ankle injury. Dante Exum, the Mavericks' fifth-leading scorer, is out, too. Rotation player Dereck Lively II is questionable. 

The Pelicans are coming off a 125-113 road loss to Denver. New Orleans had won seven consecutive road games until that defeat.

The Mavericks are off a highly-satisfying and hard-fought, 128-124, home win against the Knicks two days ago. That game had huge motivation for the Mavericks because Jalen Brunson was returning to Dallas. The Mavericks also wanted to show they could win without superstar Doncic, who sat out that contest. 

I'm willing to take a healthy and hot Pelicans team - 6-2 in their last eight games - against the Mavericks, who may not be quite as up for this game as they were Thursday and won't have their best player.

Portland is going through another tough period with four blowout losses and a victory during its last five games. So why back the Trail Blazers here? The complex answer is when things don't seem to make sense in the NBA, that's usually the right side to be on.

Then there's this: Oklahoma City just beat Miami, 128-120, on Wednesday night. Playing the physical, usually ultra-competitive Heat rarely is easy. The last three teams who played the Heat failed to cover in their next game. Oklahoma City will be playing without rest and is in action for the third time in four days. The Thunder have a more challenging matchup on deck when they host the much-improved Magic on Sunday.

The Trail Blazers should be up for this contest after getting buried by the Knicks at New York this past Tuesday. Prior to that game, Portland upset Brooklyn on the road as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. By comparison, the Thunder played at the Nets this past Friday and lost.

Portland has a winning ATS mark on the road this season. The Trail Blazers own outright away victories against the Raptors, Pacers and Cavaliers. They've lost road games by six or fewer points to the Bucks, Lakers, Clippers, Jazz and Kings. I look for them to hang in during this one.

Only once all season have the Celtics been an underdog. But there are good reasons why Boston is getting so many points in this matchup.
This spot sets up entirely for the Bucks. The oddsmaker knows it, making Milwaukee a strong favorite. But the Bucks should be favored by even more. That's how favorable this situation is for Milwaukee. 

The Bucks are in circle-the-wagons mode after losing two in a row and four of their last five with a pair of those defeats occurring to the Pacers, who they've had problems matching up to this season. 

The Bucks by no means are conceding that the Celtics are the best team in the Eastern Conference. This is their chance to make a statement. Milwaukee has revenge for a 119-116 road loss to Boston on Nov. 22. This time the Bucks draw Boston at home and they are rested having been idle since Monday. 

Milwaukee will have all hands on deck, including Damian Lillard, who missed the last game. Boston, on the other hand, may have to rest some of its players, or at least reduce their minutes following last night's 127-120 overtime win against the Timberwolves that kept the Celtics' home record perfect at 18-0. Boston had to rally from nine points down late in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory. 

The cost was heavy minutes for Boston's key players. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday all logged at least 40 minutes. Ancient Al Horford played 38 minutes. Not only is this a back-to-back game for the Celtics, but it's their fifth game in seven days.

The Knicks are 3-0 since acquiring three players from the Raptors, including OG Anunoby. They are off their most lopsided win of the season, a 128-92 rout of the 76ers last night.

That has to be highly satisfying for the Knicks. It also makes them fat and happy for this road matchup against the hapless Wizards.

Washington is terrible defensively. However, the Wizards are an above average scoring and shooting team. The Knicks' interior defense is down since center Mitchell Robinson was injured.

The situational spot highly favors Washington. The Wizards were idle on Friday, unlike the Knicks, and off two embarrassing road losses to the Cavaliers. Previous to those games, the Wizards had lost by four points at home to the Hawks and upset the Nets at home, covering both games.

The Knicks carry a heavy fatigue rating. Not only are they playing without rest, but this is their third game in four days and sixth game in nine days.

The Timberwolves are off consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pelicans at home. They have not lost three in a row all season.

Timberwolves coach Chris Finch called out his team for not playing harder and with not enough purpose. I believe the Timberwolves show up here with a lot of determination and motivation.

Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in defense. The one team ahead of the Rockets is Minnesota. The Timberwolves give up the fewest points per game and rank first, too, in fewest points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Rockets are 2-0 in their last two games. Those victories have been against the Pistons, the worst team in the NBA, and to the sagging Nets, who have lost five in a row. The Rockets had lost their previous three games - all when stepping up in class with losses to the 76ers, Suns and Pacers. This is a step-up-in-class game for Houston.

The Bucks and Pacers just scored a combined 272 points in Indiana's, 142-130, Wednesday home victory.

But let's not get carried away with the total like the oddsmaker has. The Bucks' last two games have been against the Pacers, who lead the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage.

Now the Bucks are dropping way down in class to play the Spurs. San Antonio ranks 25th in scoring and 27th in shooting percentage. The Spurs are averaging 99.5 points in their last two games.

Yet the oddsmaker opened this with the highest total of any Spurs game this season.

Sooner or later, the Bucks have to get motivated to play strong defense, which they did under Mike Budenholzer. There's no better time than now coming off a loss to the Pacers.

Since this is Milwaukee's second game in as many days there's the possibility of the Bucks sitting out any of their star players, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard or Khris Middleton, who is dealing with a right wrist injury and sore knee.

This is the biggest margin the Kings have been favored all season. It's justified considering the opponent is Charlotte. But the spot isn't good for the Kings. So I'll accept this many points with the Hornets.

The Kings haven't played at home since Dec. 23. They've been on the road for three straight games. Sacramento won the last two of those away games, beating the Hawks and Grizzlies on New Year's Eve. So the Kings didn't get back to Sacramento until New Year's Day. That gave them little time to celebrate the holidays.

It's going to be difficult for the Kings to have their full concentration and motivation for this matchup. The Kings also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Orlando on Wednesday.

This is the fifth of a six-game road trip for the Hornets and ends the West Coast portion of their journey. Their previous four games have been against the Clippers, Lakers, Suns and Nuggets. The Hornets are hoping to get Terry Rozier back from illness. That would be an added plus.

The Hornets shored up their backcourt recently signing veteran Ish Smith, who was with the world champion Nuggets last season.

Wrong favorite here. The 18-14 Cavaliers are the superior team, in a better situational spot and in much better form than the 12-20 Raptors.

Cleveland is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games. The Cavaliers just got back their superstar, Donovan Mitchell, too, in their last game after he had missed the previous four contests due to illness.

Toronto is 1-5 in its last six games, 2-4 ATS.

The Cavaliers are the more rested team having last played this past Friday. The Raptors played on Saturday and suffered a 129-127 road loss to Detroit. The Pistons halted their 28-game losing streak with that victory.

The Raptors are in transition having just made a major trade with the Knicks acquiring RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn. It could take time for the new players to adjust and for the Raptors to reshuffle their rotation.

It's obvious the Knicks are missing underrated defensive center Mitchell Robinson. New York has surrendered an average of 124.5 points in its last four games. Now the Knicks have to face the Pacers on the road. Indiana leads the NBA in scoring at 126.1 points.

The spot isn't good either for the Knicks. They are playing for the fourth time in six days and on back-to-back days after losing, 117-108, to the Magic in Orlando on Friday. The Knicks' best players - Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson - all logged heavy minutes in that loss. 

The Pacers were idle on Friday after beating the Bulls, 120-104, on Thursday. The Pacers are playing better defense, holding their last five opponents to an average of 113.4 points, down from their season average of 124.8 points.

Well the Celtics didn't lose to the Pistons last night. But they sure got a scare trailing by 21 points. Boston won, but the game went into overtime and the Celtics had to dig deep and exert tremendous effort.

That could cost them against a rested, revenge-seeking Raptors squad.

The Raptors are off perhaps their best game of the season. They buried the Wizards on the road, 132-102, this past Wednesday. Before that, Toronto had last played this past Saturday. So the Raptors are rested and ready. They also have double revenge for 117-94 and 108-105 losses to Boston.

The Celtics may not be playing with a full deck. Jayson Tatum is questionable with a sore ankle after playing 43 minutes last night. Jaylen Brown didn't play Thursday night. He's questionable. Tatum wasn't the only player who logged huge minutes Thursday. Jrue Holiday played 44 minutes. Al Horford and Derrick White each went 37 minutes and fragile Kristaps Porzingis logged nearly 36 minutes.

Toronto has a number of good, but underrated players in Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr.

Orlando is much improved. Washington remains a bottom-feeder. The Magic are 2-0 vs Washington this season with an average victory margin of 12 points. Both games were in Orlando. But this isn't a good home spot for the Wizards.

Washington hasn't played a home game in 11 days. The Wizards recently returned from a four-game West Coast trip. Washington is 3-18 in its last 21 games and 2-9 in its past 11 games with one of those wins being by one point against the 7-21 Trail Blazers.  

Orlando just halted a four-game losing streak with an impressive road victory against the Pacers this past Saturday. The Magic's four losses were to the Bucks, Heat and Celtics twice. So this is a tremendous drop in class.

The Magic have a height advantage and give up 16.6 fewer points per game than the Wizards, who are the worst defensive team in the league. The Magic also can be trusted to give a full effort. That's not always a given in today's NBA.

The big news here is Joel Embiid is out with a sprained ankle. Embiid is a strong rebounder and rim protector, but his absence is going to be felt more on Philadelphia's offense. Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 35 points a game. He also averages six assists.

The Heat may be without their superstar, too. Jimmy Butler has missed the last two games with a strained left calf. He's questionable.

These already are two strong defenses and now they might dodge each team's best player. The 76ers rank sixth in scoring defense. Miami is right below them, giving up the seventh-fewest points per game.

The 76ers have held their seven opponents to an average of 102.5 points. The Heat last played on Friday giving their coach, defensive whiz Erik Spoelstra, ample planning time for this matchup.

There are a number of odd circumstances that work against this total going Over. 

First off is this is an extreme early start time. That's often a plus for the Under. Then you have the Bucks playing in their first true road game - not being home or at a neutral site - this month. It's the Bucks' first game away from Milwaukee in more than two weeks. 

The Knicks also are in a weird scheduling spot. They are coming home after five consecutive road games. It's New York's first home game in 11 days. 

Defensive-minded center Mitchell Robinson is out for the Knicks. He was a great player for the Under. But the Knicks always are going to stress defense under Tom Thibodeau. They give up the seventh-fewest points per game and are the top defensive rebounding team in the NBA.
 
The Bucks have been a scoring machine. However, they scored 118 points against Orlando in their last game at home this past Thursday. That was their lowest scoring output in their last dozen games. The Magic slowed the pace and lost by only four points. The Knicks should follow the same pattern.

OK, no Jimmy Butler for the Heat. I'll accept that in order to get the Heat at a near pick price against the Hawks.

Miami does have Bam Adebeyo, Tyler Herro and coach Erik Spoelstra. The Heat does have a much superior defense. Miami surrenders 11 fewer points per game than Atlanta.

The 12-15 Hawks have earned no trust. They are getting too much respect in the marketplace because they've won two in a row. One of those wins was against the Pistons, an all-time record bad team. The other victory was impressive, a 134-127 comeback road win against the Rockets two days ago.

I don't see the Hawks beating two strong defensive teams, Rockets and Heat, on the road in consecutive games.

Miami is playing well itself off a 115-106 road victory against the much-improved Magic. The Heat won that game minus Butler. This is an easier game for them.

Chicago is one of the hottest point spread teams covering eight of its last nine games. The Bulls have been achieving this going against strong competition, too. They've played the 76ers, Heat twice, Nuggets and Bucks during their last five games.

The Lakers, by contrast, are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since capturing the NBA's in-season tournament. The Lakers' lone victory during this span was by three points against the 4-22 Spurs.

One of the keys to the Bulls' surge is the return of underrated, ace defensive guard Alex Caruso.

There's the chance the Lakers could be without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Both are questionable due to injuries. I still like the Bulls if those two play, but it would be a nice bonus if they didn't.

Look for the Rockets to take care of business at home against the Hawks. Houston is 2-10 on the road, but has won 11 in a row at home.

The Rockets are the far superior defensive team, ranking in the top-three in a number of major categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

The Hawks give up an average of 15 more points per game than Houston.

Atlanta has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games, losing those games by an average of 11 points. The Hawks also are banged-up with Jalen Johnson out and Bogdan Bogdanovic questionable with an ankle injury.

The Nets are a team I like to get behind. This is a spot to back them. Only the 76ers have a better point spread record than Brooklyn. The Nets are 17-7-1 (71 percent) ATS.

Brooklyn is superior to Utah in all facets. The Nets are looking to conclude their five-game West Coast trip with a victory after consecutive losses to the Warriors and Nuggets. No shame in losing to those two opponents on the road. There would be shame, though, if they lost to the Jazz.

The Jazz are 5-10 in their last 15 games. Two of Utah's past three victories have occurred against the Trail Blazers, one in overtime. Portland is 6-19.

Utah is down some of its firepower with Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George and John Collins all sidelined. Clarkson and George are out while Collins is questionable due to illness.

The Bucks have scored 146 and 140 points, respectively, in their last two games. Milwaukee is the second-highest scoring team in the league.

But it takes two teams to make a total to go Over. I don't see the Rockets cooperating here.

Houston surrenders the fewest points per game in the NBA and also ranks No. 2 in defensive efficiency. The Rockets have held their past five opponents to an average of 97.8 points.

The Bucks' last two games were against the Pistons and Pacers. Detroit ranks 25th defensively, while the Pacers are second-to-last defensively. This is a major step in defensive class and tempo for the Bucks.

Can the Pistons avoid setting a team record for most consecutive losses in a season by upsetting the 76ers on the road tonight? Probably not. But Detroit can stay within this large point spread given the circumstances.

This is one of the highest spreads of the season. It's easily the most points the 76ers have laid all season.

Philadelphia just beat the Pistons in Detroit, 129-111, two days ago. That was Detroit's 21st loss in a row. The Pistons were booed off the court. Less pressure now for the Pistons being the road team and with nothing to lose since they are expected to get buried.

The 76ers might be able to name their score, but this isn't a kill spot for them. The 76ers can't help but feel overconfident. This marks Philadelphia's third game in five days. The 76ers play again on Saturday, going to Charlotte to meet the Hornets. The 76ers host the Bulls on Monday. So there is no reason for the 76ers to go all out here. Reduced minutes are likely for the 76ers' starters, especially fragile Joel Embiid.

Three things hurt the Pistons in their Wednesday loss to the 76ers: Embiid, lack of rebounding and 10 of 33 (30.3 percent) shooting from 3-point range. Embiid figures to play fewer than 30 minutes unless it's a close game. Maybe the 76ers will even give him a rest day. Who knows, it's today's NBA where superstars unexpectedly are ruled out right before post. The Pistons are a better rebounding team than they showed in the last game and their season 3-point shooting percentage is 33.8 percent, bad but better than 30.3 percent.  

Before Wednesday's game, the Pistons and 76ers met on Nov. 10 in Detroit. The 76ers won, 114-106, for just an 8-point victory.

I hold tremendous respect for the Nets. They have the best point spread record in the NBA at 16-5-1. So I don't like to fade them. But it's not asking too much of the Suns to simply win this game even if Kevin Durant isn't ready to play after missing the last two games because of an ankle sprain. That's why I have them on the money line instead of laying a short number.

It's just a bonus if Durant can suit up. The Suns still have scoring stars Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.

The Suns aren't going to take the Nets lightly knowing they're going against former teammates Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson. They don't want to lose to those two players, who were part of the package Brooklyn received when it dealt Durant to the Suns.

The Nets opened their West Coast trip with a 131-118 loss to Sacramento. The Suns have beaten the Nets four straight times.

Since losing and failing to cover in their first three games, the Rockets have gone 14-2-1 (88 percent) ATS. Yet the marketplace still hasn't fully comprehended how improved the Rockets are defensively.

Memphis has drawn early money. It's a mistake.

The Grizzlies are 6-16. After a stretch of three wins in four games, the Grizzlies have lost and failed to cover in their past two games. They still have too many missing players to begin to turn the corner.

Houston has won 10 in a row at home. The Rockets give up the fewest points per game and rank second defensively in points per 100 possessions and defensive field goal percentage.

This line is shorter than it should be.

Behold this game has reached the highest total of the season. It's justified because these are the two highest-scoring teams in the NBA.

But Under is the right way to go with the total this large.

It's the third meeting between Indiana and Milwaukee. So the teams certainly know each other. They are the top two teams in the Central Division so there should be more than just the normal intensity.

The Bucks should be extremely motivated in a double-revenge spot. There were a combined 250 points scored in the first meeting and 247 points produced when the Pacers eliminated the Bucks in the semifinals of the NBA's in-season tournament six days ago.

Easy inside baskets should prove difficult to come by. Milwaukee's Brook Lopez is the NBA leader in blocked shots per game and Indiana's Myles Turner is a tremendous rim protector.

Everything has to go right for a total this large to go Over. The Bucks are a below average free throw shooting team. I don't see it happening. The teams couldn't reach this total in their earlier meetings and now they have even more familiarity with one another.

Here is another example of Boston being overpriced. The Cavaliers are being disrespected because they lost to the Magic last night. No shame in that. Orlando is greatly improved. The Cavaliers happen to be 6-1 following a loss.

This is just the fifth time Cleveland is getting more than four points. The Cavaliers are 4-0 both straight-up and of course against the spread in those instances.

The Celtics haven't beat the Cavaliers by more than 10 points during the past two seasons spanning seven games.

The Mavericks won't have Kyrie Irving and will want to slow pace having played last night. Dallas could be minus Tim Hardaway, too. He missed the Grizzlies' game due to back spasms. The Lakers are in a letdown spot after winning the NBA's in-season tournament.

There were only 205 points scored when the teams met on Nov. 22 in Los Angeles.

Talk about your dead spots. This sure is one for the Pacers.

Indiana has been one of the top stories of the NBA this season reaching the finals of the inaugural in-season tournament. The Pacers got there by beating a number of elite teams, including the 76ers, Celtics and Bucks. The Pacers were the talk of the tournament before losing in the championship game to the Lakers in Las Vegas this past Saturday. Indiana players were rewarded $200,000 each for making it to the title game.

Now comes the letdown.

The Pacers had to fly to Detroit for today's game against the Pistons, a team that has lost 19 in a row. How excited and motivated can the Pacers be for this matchup? Not very.

Detroit, though, won't lack incentive. The Pistons are off a blowout road loss to the Magic this past Friday. They desperately want to end their hellish losing streak. The Magic are the sixth-best defensive team in the NBA. The Pacers are the second-worst defensive team in the league.

Only once have the Pistons failed to reach triple digits. The Pistons should score plenty of points here, maybe even enough to pull the outright upset against a foe whose players just got done participating in the biggest game of their pro careers.

These two teams met in Charlotte on Nov. 14. The Heat were 6 1/2-point road favorites and won, 111-105.

Now the Heat are much smaller favorites. I don't get it. But I am going to take advantage of it and lay the lower number.

Charlotte is 7-13. The Hornets have a losing home record. Miami has a winning road mark.

The Hornets shot a season-best 55.7 percent from the floor to beat the Raptors, 119-116, at home this past Friday in their previous game.

The Heat defeated the Raptors, 112-103, in Toronto this past Wednesday. That was two games ago. Miami lost, 111-99, at home to the Cavaliers in its past game three days ago. No shame in that. The Cavaliers are coming on winning nine of their last 12 games.

I like getting Heat coach Erik Spoelstra with three days to prepare coming off a blowout home loss. The Heat have a top-nine defense. I don't see the Hornets having another hot-shooting game like they did against the Raptors against a motivated, superior opponent.

Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season.

The Thunder have defeated the Warriors in two of those three meetings. They are in much better current form and hosting Golden State. I expect them to win by a solid margin.

Oklahoma City is 8-3 in its last 11 games. The Thunder won't lack motivation following a 110-101 road loss to the Rockets this past Wednesday.

Golden State snuck past Portland, 110-106, as a 12 1/2-point home favorite this past Wednesday. The Warriors have lost 10 of their past 15 games even with that victory against the 6-14 Trail Blazers.

The Warriors rank 19th defensively. The Thunder are averaging 128 points in regulation against Golden State.

This is the highest total of the NBA season. I'm not buying it. I get that the Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league at 128.4 points and have gone above 120 points in each of their five tournament games. The Bucks are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA at 122.3 points and have gone Over in their past four games.

But this matchup is different. It's a semifinal game of the NBA's tournament so the stakes are higher than normal. That means at least a semblance of defense should be forthcoming.

"We've got to be ready to defend those guys,'' Bucks guard Damian Lillard was quoted as saying about the Pacers. If Lillard is saying this then the Bucks must be serious about defending the Pacers since Lillard isn't exactly known for his stellar defense.

Keep in mind, too, this game is at a neutral site, Las Vegas. These teams aren't familiar with this setting. It's also a West Coast day time start so that could throw them off.

The teams met earlier this season on Nov. 9 at Indiana. The Pacers won, 126-124, for a combined 250 points. The Bucks shot 53 percent from the floor and made 23 of 26 free throws. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 54 points. Indiana shot 48 percent from the field and sank 18 of 20 free throws. Yet there weren't more than 250 points scored.

The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk.

The spot also sets up well for the Nets, who are in better form than Atlanta.

Brooklyn is 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets last played on Saturday. They should be rested and ready for this short revenge game. The Hawks edged the Nets, 147-145, in overtime when they hosted them on Nov. 22.

This is the Hawk' first game since returning from a five-game road trip. Atlanta is 3-6 in its last nine games.

The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8.

The Lakers are the home team in this quarterfinal Western Conference matchup of the NBA's in-season tournament. LA is 2-0 vs Phoenix this season. The Lakers beat the Suns, 122-119, in the latest meeting Nov. 10.

So why do I like the underdog Suns?

I find Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to be the deadliest scoring duo in the NBA. The pair are averaging a combined 59 points per game. Booker missed the two earlier games against the Lakers. Yet even without Booker, the Suns nearly beat the Lakers in their previous meeting building a seven-point fourth quarter lead.

Now Booker finally gets to play against LA. He's a difference maker. Since losing to the Lakers, the Suns have gone 8-2. Phoenix is the better team with those two in the lineup. They'll prove it here.

This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas.

There's more pressure on the home Kings. They haven't fared well in the role of favorite going 4-7 ATS this season, including losing five times straight-up as chalk.  

The Pelicans, conversely, have thrived as underdogs covering the last six times in that position winning five of those games straight-up.

The teams have met twice already this season. Both games were in New Orleans. The Pelicans won each time by 36 and five points, respectively.

The Kings had problems defending against Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Those two stars are reinforced by CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III both healthy after being out. So the Pelicans will have all four of their leading scorers. Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Murphy average a combined 86 points a game.

Sometimes to beat the NBA you have to go ugly. That's the case here in backing Washington.

The Wizards may be the worst defensive team in the NBA and they are coming off a terrible performance. That came against Orlando two days ago in a 139-120 road loss to the Magic. It was the Magic's eighth straight victory. Now there's a quick rematch.

The Wizards have short revenge. The Magic have their own revenge game up next when they meet the Nets on Saturday. Brooklyn defeated Orlando by 20 points Nov. 14. Washington is looking for redemption. Orlando is looking ahead.

Even given Washington's defensive shortcomings, the Magic don't figure to achieve season highs in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and assists like they did against the Wizards in Wednesday's lopsided victory. The Magic shot 60.7 percent from the floor and sank 17 of 27 3-pointers in that game.

Not only should the Wizards mentally be in an all-in type of mood, but physically they shouldn't hold anything back because they don't play again for five days. The Wizards have their pluses namely offense. They rank in the top-10 in points, field goal percentage and free throw shooting.

I get that the Pistons are total dog crap, losers of an amazing 15 straight games. About the only good thing I can say about them is they have some promising young players and usually play with energy.

But this is a spot where the Pistons can hang in and cover the number.

The Knicks are fat and happy. They just destroyed the Hornets, 115-91, at home on Tuesday. It's New York's fourth home game in six days. Up next for the Knicks is a road game tomorrow night against the Raptors, who just upset the Suns last night.

So I question the Knicks' motivational and intensity level for this game. It's the most points the Knicks are laying all season. They have a bottom-five offense. That's not ideal when laying a large number.

It's also the most points the Pistons are receiving all season. The only other time the Pistons were a double-digit underdog they nearly upset the Bucks, losing by two points as a 12-point road 'dog.

Even if Kevin Durant misses this game, and he's questionable with a foot injury, I still like Phoenix to cover this short number.

The Suns have won seven in a row, covering in their last four games. This 7-0 streak has coincided with the return of Devin Booker from a calf injury that caused him to miss five games.

The Suns will be well rested. They last played on Sunday.

Toronto, on the other hand, carries a high fatigue rating. The Raptors lost on the road by eight points to the Nets last night. Toronto had four players log at least 32 minutes in that loss. This marks the Raptors' sixth game in nine days.

The Kings are home, playing much better than the Warriors and have double revenge. So it's not too much to ask them to simply win this game.

Sacramento is 7-2 in its last nine games. Sparked by the return to health of underrated star DeAaron Fox, the Kings rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency during this span. The Kings concluded a six-game road trip this past Friday beating Minnesota, which has the top record in the Western Conference, so they've had ample rest and preparation time.

This is just the Kings' sixth home game. They are 4-1 in Sacramento.

Golden State has played just one road game since Nov. 8. The Warriors are 1-3 in their last four away contests with that victory occurring against the 2-15 Pistons.

While the Kings are 7-2 in their last nine games, the Warriors are 2-7 in their past nine games. Golden State's only victories during this time frame were versus the Spurs and Rockets. They went 0-2 against the Timberwolves, who the Kings just defeated by 13 points.

Draymond Green is eligible to return from his five-game suspension. That may work against the Warriors, though, in his first game back because Green could be rusty, or he could cause chemistry issues with his in-your-face style.

The Kings haven't forgotten the Warriors nipping them, 102-101, on Nov. 1 at Golden State when Klay Thompson hit a contested jumper with two-tenths of a second left.

What do you do when idiots meet? Take the Over. That's what I'm doing in this matchup between the two worst teams in the NBA, Wizards and Pistons.

Both teams are 2-14. The Wizards have lost nine in a row. That's nothing, though, compared to the Pistons. They've dropped 13 consecutive games.

Defense is the problem for these two teams. The Wizards rank last in defensive field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring defense giving up
125.1 points a game. Detroit gives up 117.2 points per game. That number goes up to 128.3 if you just count the Pistons' last three games.

The Wizards play fast, too, ranking second in tempo. The Pistons are in the top-12 in pace, too, and will have fresh legs. This is only their second game in a week.

So expect a fast-paced game with zero defense.

I like getting points with the better defensive team that has motivation and is in good current form.

So I'm on the Heat here against the Nets.

Miami is 9-2 in its last 11 games. The Heat's two losses during this 11-game stretch occurred to the Bulls by five points and to the Knicks by two points yesterday when Miami blew a 21-point third quarter lead. 

The Heat rank fifth in the NBA defensively holding foes to 107.6 points a game. Brooklyn ranks 21st defensively giving up an average of 116.2 points. 

The Nets have been vulnerable lately in giving up 3-point baskets, allowing an average of 16.2 in their past four games. The Heat rank sixth in the league in 3-point shooting.

I find this number short given that both teams were idle on Thanksgiving and the Suns shouldn't lack a killer instinct.

Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league at 3-11. The Suns are 9-6 and dangerous with a healthy Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Phoenix has won five in a row, including its past four road games.

The Grizzlies are 0-6 at home. The Suns won't be taking them lightly following a 123-115 win against the Warriors this past Wednesday when Phoenix nearly blew a 23-point lead. This is what Booker said after the game: "We have to do better. Simple as that. We have to take care of the ball, no turnovers, get stops. When that game's 10, 15 points in the fourth, don't give any team hope, don't give any team confidence.''

The Grizzlies are off a deflating 20-point road loss against the Rockets also this past Wednesday. Memphis ranks last in field goal percentage and in 3-point defense. The Suns rank No. 2 in 3-point shooting percentage.

Too many points for the Lakers to lay. Only twice in 14 games have the Lakers beaten a team by more than six points. Those two teams were the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, who are a combined 6-20.

The Jazz covered all four of their games versus the Lakers last season.

Utah is getting better as its backcourt gets in sync. The Jazz are 2-2 in their last four games with their only defeats during this span coming by 3 points each to the Suns, one of which went into overtime.

Down all of their best backcourt scorers with Damian Lillard traded and Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson each hurt, the Trail Blazers are tough to get behind. Portland has lost seven in a row and is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. 

I get that. 

But this spot is good for the Trail Blazers taking this many points. 

Phoenix just won a pair of 3-point road games at Utah - always a difficult place to win at - with the last one coming in overtime this past Sunday. That gives the Suns three straight victories. They've been gone from Phoenix for nearly a week. Now they return home perhaps distracted by the upcoming holiday and knowing they have a marquee home game on deck against Golden State on Wednesday. I don't see the Suns fired-up for this matchup. 

The most motivated player on the court could be Portland center Deandre Ayton, who played for the Suns for five seasons before being traded to the Trail Blazers in late September. Ayton could look for his shots more against his former team. That would be a good thing. 

The Trail Blazers certainly will want to give a better accounting of themselves after an embarrassing, 134-91, home loss to the Thunder in their last game two nights ago. If you discount that game, the Trail Blazers would be 5-4 ATS in their last nine games. 

The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They haven't won by more than 13 points in eight of their past 10 games with one of those victories being by 14 points against the Pistons.

Miami had won seven straight games entering this past Saturday's road matchup against the Bulls. The Heat scored 22 of the first 23 points against Chicago leading them to overconfidence.

The Heat still looked like they would coast to the victory. Miami was ahead by 10 points with 8:04 left.

But the Bulls, to their credit, hung in and pulled the game out.

Now it's short revenge time for Miami. The Heat are the superior team. They won't lack motivation or overconfidence in this quick turnaround, revenge spot.

The 5-9 Bulls haven't won back-to-back games all season. I don't see them doing it here.

The 5-6 Cavaliers aren't good enough to overlook any opponent, especially when they might be without their assist leader and third-leading scorer, Darius Garland. He's questionable with a neck injury that kept him out of Clevaland's last game. That was a 14-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Wednesday.

But as the Cavaliers return from a long four-game road trip that concluded in Portland, it might be difficult for Cleveland to have its full focus and motivation against the Pistons because Detroit has lost nine in a row.

The youthful Pistons have played tough teams close recently, though. Detroit's last four results have been a six-point loss to the Hawks, an 11-point defeat to the Bulls, an eight-point loss to the 76ers and a two-point defeat to the Bucks. The Bucks, 76ers and Hawks are all better than Cleveland and they beat the Pistons by fewer points than this point spread.

Detroit is 3-1 ATS when catching more than eight points this season.

When it's bad on bad like this, take the points especially when it goes past the key basketball number of six.

Portland is 3-6. Utah is worse at 3-7.

This is the Jazz's first home game in 12 days. So their focus could be off. Only once have the Jazz beaten a team by more than six points. That was against the 2-8 Grizzlies.

The Trail Blazers have road victories against the Pistons and Raptors. They lost by three to the Kings and by six to the Lakers on their current road swing, covering both games. The Trail Blazers have covered five of their last six games.

Portland has won the past three meetings against the Jazz, including twice at Utah last season.

The Cavaliers are healthy and dangerous. The Warriors found that out the hard way when they lost to Cleveland, 118-110, as 4 1/2-point home favorites two days ago. Now the Cavaliers take on a much worse Sacramento team that is unlikely to have its key player, DeAaron Fox. 

Fox has missed the last five games with a right ankle sprain. He's listed as doubtful. The Kings are 2-3 in those games, which include two blowout losses to the Rockets. One of the victories was at home in overtime against the 3-6 Trail Blazers. 

If you discount the victory against Portland in which they were a 7 1/2-point favorite, the Kings are averaging 98 points in their last four games. They rank 28th in the league in field goal percentage. 

The Cavaliers have Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 29.5 points, Caris LeVert, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. That's a much better core than the Kings especially if Fox remains out.  

Cleveland is averaging 117.2 points in its last four games. The Cavaliers have scored at least 116 points in each of those four contests.

First off, this is a very early Sunday start time. That's often a plus for the Under as teams are used to playing at night. 

Then you have the Knicks as the host team. New York has gone Under in six of its eight games. It's easy to see why looking at the statistics. The Knicks are last in field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring. However, they have the No. 2 defense in the NBA allowing just 102.8 points. That number shrinks to 99 points if you go by their last six games. 

The Hornets just played the Wizards in back-to-back-games. Washington is the worst defensive team in the NBA. Charlotte's previous two games were versus the Mavericks, who rank 23rd defensively, and the Pacers, who rate 26th defensively. So this is quite a defensive upgrade the Hornets are facing. 

The Knicks haven't played since Wednesday. I see that extended layoff hurting their shooting more than their defense. New York figures to be rusty on offense. But the Knicks should have a solid defensive game plan given that their coach, Tom Thibodeau, is a defensive guru.

The Clippers are putting a lot of emphasis on winning this finale of their four-game road trip after losing the first three games. LA's 3-point shooting is due to improve. The Clippers are just 19-of-68 (28 percent) from 3-point range in their past two games, losses to the Knicks and Nets.

Dallas has surrendered at least 118 points in three of its past four games. Luka Doncic is going to get his points, but the Clippers have the better team with more star power. The Mavericks could be minus rookie center Dereck Lively II. He missed Dallas' last game two days ago due to illness. The result was the Raptors beat the Mavericks, 127-116, as four-point road 'dogs.

"We missed him (Lively) a lot,'' Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said after the loss to Toronto. "There was no one in the paint and that just shows how important he is to our team.''

If Lively plays, you wonder how much stamina he'll have? Either way, I don't believe the Clippers should be an underdog despite their recent shooting struggles. They have too many star players and will have motivation.

Both teams played and won Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo received some unexpected extra rest. Antetokounmpo logged only 22 minutes because he was tossed midway through the third quarter against the Pistons after making a slam dunk basket. Apparently the referees thought people were paying to watch them instead of Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks and Antetokounmpo should be extra fired-up because of that. The Bucks are 5-2. Indiana is 5-3. Milwaukee is the better team and has played the tougher schedule. The Pacers have only met one opponent that has a winning record.

The Pacers rank first in scoring, but are a bottom-five defensive team. They also carry a high fatigue ranking. This will be their fifth game in seven days.

The Bucks held Khris Middleton out of last night's game for knee injury management in the hopes he'll be ready for this more important game.

De'Aaron Fox is the most important player on Sacramento's roster. He's out with an ankle injury. Fox didn't play in the Kings' last three games. Sacramento went 0-3 in those games, including getting blown out twice by the lowly Rockets.

So the Kings certainly can't be trusted to lay this many points. The spot isn't even good for them. This is their first home game in a week having played their past three games away from home.

Portland has won and covered in its last two road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. The Trail Blazers are playing solid defense giving up an average of 101.5 points in regulation during their last four games.

The Wizards are a tough team to get behind with their lack of defense. But this is a good spot for them.

The 76ers are fat and happy having four in a row, the last three coming at home. They just had a satisfying win against the Suns this past Saturday.

Up next for the 76ers is arch-rival Boston. The 76ers host the unbeaten Celtics on Wednesday. That's the game they are pointing to. It could mean fewer minutes for Joel Embiid in tonight's game.

The Wizards haven't played since Friday. After beating the Grizzlies at home, the Wizards have lost three in a row. They are frustrated. This is an important game for them. Washington ranks in the top-12 in scoring and shooting percentage.

The Grizzlies are really missing suspended Ja Morant. They are the NBA's lone winless team at 0-5. Memphis is averaging 106.6 points and ranks second-to-last in field goal percentage. The Grizzlies have prided themselves on defense. They just gave up 133 points to the Jazz in an embarrassing 24-point loss two days ago.

Now, with a real chance to win their first game, I see the Grizzlies really stressing defense against a short-handed, rebuilding Trail Blazers squad that has problems scoring, too. Portland ranks 29th in scoring at 103 points. The Trail Blazers are even more inaccurate from the floor than Memphis ranking last in field goal percentage.

The Trail Blazers are down their projected starting backcourt with Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson, the No. 3 overall pick in this year's draft, both out.

Portland has been playing solid defense the past two games holding the Raptors and Pistons to a combined average of 96 points.

The 76ers are in action for the first time since trading James Harden. They also haven't played since Sunday. So the 76ers should have energy and motivation. The talent certainly is there.

Toronto is coming off a highly satisfying destruction of the Bucks, 130-111, at home last night. This marks the Raptors' fifth game in seven days. So the scheduling dynamics clearly favor Philadelphia.

The teams already have met in 76ers coach Nick Nurse's return to Toronto. The 76ers won, 114-107, as 5-point road favorites this past Saturday. Nurse certainly knows his former team.

The Heat are not built for the early part of the season. This is when they historically struggle and it's happening again this season. If it weren't for a one-point victory against the lowly Pistons, the Heat would be 0-4.

The Nets are 3-0 ATS this season, underrated by the oddsmaker and beneath the radar because they no longer have any of their superstars. Cam Thomas, though, is an emerging star averaging 33 points.

This is Miami's first home game following three consecutive road matchups. So the spot isn't good. The Heat also are banged-up. Jimmy Butler is questionable and Bam Adebayo is dealing with a bruised hip.

The Cavaliers have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Knicks eliminated them in the playoffs last season. The Knicks took advantage of Cleveland's outside shooting deficiencies and rebounding.

Aware of this, the Cavaliers addressed these concerns in the off-season by bringing in sharpshooting guard Max Strus and veteran Tristan Thompson to help Evan Mobley on the boards against Mitchell Robinson.

I'm surprised the Knicks are favored in this road game, their third away game in five days. Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable perhaps that's why. But Mitchell is expected to play.

The Knicks are not nearly in rhythm. The Cavaliers are home with motivation. Taking points is just a bonus.

It's not asking too much for the Grizzlies to beat the Wizards. Memphis, after all, is the vastly superior team. The Grizzlies were 20 games above .500 last season. Washington finished eight games below .500.

The Grizzlies are anxious for a win being 0-2. They played well in a 108-104 loss to the world champion Nuggets last night. Memphis would have beaten most teams with its performance, including the Wizards.

The oddsmaker is overrating the situation and Memphis being without suspended Ja Morant.

The Wizards haven't played since Wednesday while the Grizzlies will be in action without rest. It's so early in the season that there isn't a fatigue factor for Memphis. The Grizzlies are stepping way down in class. The Wizards played no defense in their opener, a 143-120 loss to the Pacers.

Washington gave up 32 fast-break points to Indiana. Memphis had 22 fast-break baskets against Denver. The Wizards are in transition without Bradley Beal, who has been their leading-scorer and go-to-guy since the 2017-18 season. Beal is with the Suns now. The Wizards haven't found a rhythm without Beal. They are experimenting with their rotation. I don't see the Wizards getting this turned around against the Grizzlies.

As for Morant's absence, the Grizzlies have a capable point guard in Marcus Smart. He's a better defensive guard than anybody the Wizards have.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are superstars.Their presence, though, makes the Mavericks overrated. Doncic may be the best player to have in fantasy basketball, but Dallas isn't that good. The roster is very mediocre once you get past Doncic and Irving.

The Mavericks had a losing record last season after acquiring the disgruntled Irving from the Nets. Dallas finished last season losing 18 of its last 25 games. The Mavericks haven't been good in the favorite's role either, 4-10 ATS the past 14 times as chalk.

The Nets enter this matchup after blowing a six-point lead to the Cavaliers with 84 seconds left in their opener. Brooklyn doesn't have the superstars anymore, but it has underrated scorers. Ben Simmons finally is healthy, too.

If the Nets need extra motivation, they have it up against Irving for the first time since he left Brooklyn.

This has been a close series with the past five games all being decided by four points or less.

The NBA season tipped off Tuesday with two games. Both went Under. I see this game going Under, too, as teams make the transition from preseason to regular-season intensity.

The Trail Blazers no longer have superstar marksman Damian Lillard. Their front line has gotten better defensively with the additions of Deandre Ayton and defensive ace Robert Williams III. Their backcourt also should be improved defensively with Malcolm Brogdon coming on board.

The Clippers have a healthy Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, at least for now. They are superstars - on both ends of the court because they also are excellent defenders. Bricklayer Russell Westbrook also is in the starting lineup along with center Ivica Zubac, who has the shooting range of about two feet, and streak shooter Terance Mann.

So I find this total to be too high.

The perception here is the Rockets are a bottom-feeder and the Magic are an up-and-coming team.

Truth be told, the Rockets are nothing like last season. They have fortified themselves with a veteran lineup getting point guard Fred VanVleet and improving their defense acquiring Dillon Brooks. They also have upgraded their coaching bringing in Ime Udoka.

The Magic haven't made the playoffs the past three seasons.

I consider the Rockets to be the better team so getting points with them is a bonus.

I find this line to be short. The Celtics are an elite team and they got better during the off-season acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday.

The Knicks had their best season in a decade last season, but still are several rungs below the Celtics and did nothing to improve themselves in the off-season.

The Nuggets came together in impressive fashion last season winning 16 of 20 playoff games to capture the NBA championship. One of Denver's victims was the Lakers. 

After the Nuggets swept the Lakers, Denver coach Michael Malone said, "If anybody is still about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them. They've gone fishing. We're still playing.''

That flippant remark didn't sit well with the Lakers, especially LeBron James and Anthony Davis. 

Now the long wait is over for the Lakers. They get a rematch with the Nuggets on opening night. The Nuggets will be raising their championship banner and getting their rings among the many pre-game festivities - and distractions for them. 

The Lakers certainly should be the more motivated and focused team. They also have a healthy James and Davis and a deeper bench than the Nuggets, who lost key reserve Bruce Brown and Jeff Green.

It's no fluke the Nuggets are on the verge of clinching the NBA championship with a 3-1 series lead. But the Heat have earned the right to be backed taking this many points.

Miami has pulled off three double-digit fourth-quarter comeback wins in the postseason. They won Game 2 in Denver down by seven points in the final period. They are a well-coached, tough team both physically and mentally.

So I will accept this many points knowing that if key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combine for two points while shooting a combined 1-for-10 from the floor and 0-for-7 from 3-point range, the Heat are likely to lose by double-digits. That was the case in Game 4 with Denver winning, 108-95.

The Nuggets were sharp in their 108-95 road win in Game 4 this past Friday. They shot 49 percent from the floor and hit 14 of 28 3-point shots for 50 percent. That's going to be difficult to repeat. So is Aaron Gordon scoring 27 points while making 11 of 15 shots from the field and hitting three of four 3-pointers after he made just five 3-pointers during his previous eight games.

The Heat, by contrast, made 8-of-25 3-pointers for 32 percent in Game 4. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are playing great. Bam Adebayo, though, is producing strong numbers for Miami and Jimmy Butler is off his best all-around game in this series with 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists.

It boils down to faith. I have it in Butler, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra and Vincent to keep things close with their season on the brink.

Let's be realistic about the Heat. They don't have the height, nor the offense, to match up to Nuggets' superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

If Miami gets demoralized and its role players aren't hitting their perimeter shots, the Heat are dead in the water. That's what happened in Game 3 this past Wednesday when the Nuggets won, 109-94, on the road. The Nuggets outrebounded the Heat, 58-33, and outscored them by 26 points in the paint.

So it's easy to see why the Heat are a home 'dog for this Game 4.

Discount Miami at your own peril, however. The Heat have been resilient all through the postseason. Just when you want to count them out they re-emerge. I see the Heat doing that again in this spot. I certainly don't expect the Heat to make 49 percent of their 3-point shots like they did in their Game 2 upset. But Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love and Max Strus should all combine to shoot much better than the 12-for-43 (28 percent) they hit from the floor in Wednesday's loss.

Jokic and Murray played their ''A'' games in Game 3. Not so with Miami's stars. Jimmy Butler couldn't even reach five assists. He and Adebayo were a combined 18-for-45 (40 percent) from the field. They are due to shoot better while Jokic and especially Murray can't play much better than they did on Wednesday.

Eric Spoelstra has bolstered his already strong reputation during this postseason. He just could be the best coach in the NBA. So the Heat have that going. I expect they'll have super defensive intensity, which they lacked in Game 3 especially when they started falling way behind.

The Heat have covered seven of the last nine times following a loss. I'm banking on a strong bounce effort from Miami.

There were 219 points scored in Miami's 111-108 Game 2 win against the Nuggets this past Sunday. 

This is what it took to reach that number: The Nuggets shot 52 percent from the floor. The Heat hit 49 percent from the floor and sank 17 of 35 shots from 3-point range for 49 percent. The teams combined to make 37 of 42 free throws for 88 percent. 

Yet because the pace was slow, it was a major sweat for that total to go Over 216. 

The tempo is going to be slow and deliberate again in this Game 3 except I don't see either team shooting nearly that well - especially the Heat from 3-point range. I also don't see 42 free throws. There were 22 free throws in Game 1 with the Heat getting to the line only twice. 

Miami was 27th in 3-point field goal percentage during the season at 34.4 percent. The Heat have shot much better from beyond the arc during the playoffs at 39.2 percent. But they are not a 49 percent 3-point shooting team. No team is. That Game 2 3-point shooting was an outlier. 

Erik Spoelstra did make adjustments following Miami's Game 1 loss, pressing more and using a 2-3 zone more. He also resurrected veteran Kevin Love, whose height and rebounding bothered Jamal Murray. 

Murray also was burdened defensively as the Heat seemed to key on him. That might have affected his offensive game. Michael Porter Jr. has been nearly invisible for Denver. He's missed 14 of 17 3-pointers while averaging just 9.5 points. This is putting a lot of pressure on Nikola Jokic to do everything and on Aaron Gordon to produce points and Gordon isn't a big scorer being more of a rebounder, shot-blocker and defender. 

Jimmy Butler isn't playing well for the Heat. Perhaps still bothered by a sore ankle and the fatigue of carrying the Heat to this late point of the season, he's averaging 17 points in this championship series while shooting 13-of-33 (39.3 percent) from the field. The Nuggets have also been keying on Butler. It's a lot to ask of unsung Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Caleb Martin, who has been under the weather, to produce big scoring games in lieu of Butler's disappointing offense. 

The Nuggets are better than the Heat. But the Nuggets learned a big lesson in their Game 2 Sunday home loss to Miami. They can't mail anything in. No overconfidence. Winning seven consecutive playoff games and being unbeaten at home during the postseason doesn't mean anything.

It's going to take maximum energy and better play from every Denver starter not named Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets have had three days to pick up on that. I believe they've learned their lesson. I see the Nuggets producing their most intense game of the series.

I also don't believe the Heat can make an astonishing 17 of 35 (49 percent) 3-pointers like they did in Game 2.

Miami has lost its last two home playoff games falling to the Celtics by one and 17 points. The Nuggets have won their last three road games beating the Lakers by two and 11 points and the Suns by 25. So don't think Denver can't win away from home.

Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope did not play up to their capabilities in Game 2. Yet Denver still only lost by three points. All three should play much better along with the Nuggets playing with far more intensity and having the best player on the planet in Jokic. Given that, it's not asking too much for the Nuggets to win this Game 3.

This is Denver's lowest total of the season and an overreaction to the Nuggets' 104-93 Game 1 home win this past Thursday.

That was a feel-out game. The Heat were still on fumes following their Game 7 upset win against the Celtics and were not used to the high mountain altitude in Denver. The Nuggets were rusty having not played in 10 days.

All of this showed in Thursday's opener. The teams combined to shoot just 31.8 percent from 3-point range making 21-of-66 shots from beyond the arc. The Heat were only 13-of-39 from 3-point range with six of those 3-pointers coming when the game already was out of reach. This despite getting good looks throughout the game.

This was Miami's worst shooting 3-point game of the playoffs. They were shooting 39 percent from 3-point range during the postseason entering this championship matchup. The Nuggets shot 37.9 percent from beyond the arc going into the playoffs. They made only eight of their 27 3-point shots for 29.6 percent.

The Heat also only got to shoot two free throws! It was the first time Jimmy Butler didn't have a free throw attempt during the postseason. The Nuggets are not some dominant defensive team either. They ranked 20th in defensive field goal percentage. I see Butler coming out extra aggressive for this Game 2.

It was obvious in Game 1 that the Nuggets' frontcourt size was too much for the Heat. Nikola Jokic isn't just a great triple-threat talent. He's also extremely intelligent. He can find Miami's weakness and exploit it either by scoring, or passing off. Michael Porter Jr. isn't likely to miss nine of 11 3-point shots. He finished in the top 20 in 3-point shooting accuracy during the regular season at 41.4 percent.

There's not much Miami coach Erik Spoelstra can do. One option would be for him to go with his best offensive weapons playing them as much as possible. That would be the dream scenario for this Over and could happen as the Nuggets are easily capable of reaching their season average of 115.8 points. They were the No. 1 shooting team in the NBA during the regular season making 50.4 percent of their field goals.

The Heat are the first play-in team to ever make the NBA Championship Series. But they need more time to rest and recuperate after upsetting the Celtics on the road this past Monday in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Even if they had ample time to prepare, though, I don't see the Heat staying within double-digits of the home Nuggets in Thursday's Game 1.

The Nuggets have been idle since May 22. They've won six in a row and are 42-7 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs.

If the Heat thought Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were a load, wait until they encounter Nikola Jokic and James Murray. Jokic is the best player in the NBA and Murray had a series for the ages in Denver's four-game sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Murray led all scorers in that series averaging 32.5 points while shooting 52.7 percent from the floor, hitting 40.5 percent of his 37 3-point attempts and sinking 19-of-20 free throws.

The Nuggets outrebounded the Lakers and they surely will out-rebound the undersized Heat.

The Heat and Celtics meet in Game 7 for the Eastern Conference championship. The talk is all about how the Celtics have a great chance to be the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 playoff deficit.

That's fine and dandy. But when it comes to betting, I find a different angle - the total. It is the lowest of the series by far. The totals have ranged from 209-to-216 in the first six games.

This one is much lower because of the perception there will be tremendous defensive intensity.

Sure neither team will be holding back. But there is way too much good 3-point shooting in today's NBA. That offsets any extra defensive effort.

The Celtics are averaging 108.8 points in the series. Miami is averaging 110.1 points. The Celtics were the fourth-highest scoring team during the regular season at 118 points per game.

There have been at least 207 combined points scored in each of the six games.

Even if the referees let the teams play super physical, there still are going to be fouls called. If the game is called tight, there will be lots of fouls called. The Heat were the second-best foul shooting team in the league. Boston ranked sixth in free throw percentage.

Jimmy Butler shot 5-for-21 from the field in Game 6. Miami still scored 104 points. It's worth noting that Gabe Vincent, who is averaging 20.3 points during his last three games, played 41 minutes this past Saturday in Game 6. So it appears he's past his ankle injury.

The Heat are a strong defensive team. But they are dealing with a stacked deck on the road going against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who is shooting much better going 18-for-34 from the floor the past two games. It's an added bonus if Malcolm Brogdon can play for Boston after missing Game 6 with an arm injury.

Bottom line is the oddsmaker has overcompensated on the total because it's Game 7 giving value to the Over.

A combination of Boston's improved defense and injuries are taking a huge toll on Miami. The Celtics have held the Heat to 97 and 99 points, respectively, during the past two games to cut Miami's once insurmountable 3-0 series lead to 3-2.

Boston has forced 32 turnovers during these past two games, 10 by Bam Adebayo. The Celtics have double-teamed Jimmy Butler much more than they did during the first two games of the series. A 53.9 percent shooter from the floor during the regular season, Butler is just 19-for-44 (43 percent) from the field during the last three games.

Losing underrated Gabe Vincent to an ankle injury has hurt the Heat more than perceived. Already without scoring wings/guards Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, the Heat desperately need Vincent's outside scoring. Vincent averaged a combined 23 points in Games 3 and 4 hitting 16-of-24 shots from the floor. However, he missed Game 5. He's questionable for tonight's game. Even if he plays, his shooting may be off because of his ankle injury.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra doesn't have many viable options with veterans Kyle Lowery and Kevin Love each well past their primes and looking very old. The Heat's best option is to completely sell out on defense since the Celtics have stymied their offense.

Miami certainly can win relying heavily on defense. They gave up the second-fewest points in the league during the regular season. It's defense, not offense, after all that is Miami's calling card.

The Celtics are not unscathed in the health department. Guard Malcolm Brogdon has been dealing with an elbow injury. It caused him to leave Game 5. Brogdon was Boston's third-leading scorer during the regular season at 14.9 points a game. He also was fourth on the team in assists.

Both teams made 51 percent of their field goals in Game 5. Yet there were just 207 points scored. That's because it was the slowest paced game of the series.

I'm expecting another slow tempo game only this time without such outstanding shooting. That should ensure a third straight Under in the series.

Kudos to the Celtics for staying alive with their 116-99 road win against the Heat in Tuesday's Game 4.

But it's not a fluke the Heat lead this Eastern Conference Finals series, 3-1. They are the superior team.

Forget the regular season. It doesn't matter. What does matter is the Heat peaking having eliminated the Bucks - who were perhaps the top team in the NBA - Knicks and winning the first three games against the Celtics before stumbling on Tuesday by playing a poor second half.

I like Miami because it has a monster edge in coaching, the best all-around player on the court in Jimmy Butler, the best low-post player in Bam Adebayo and is the stronger defensive team.

The Celtics are perceived to have the more talented roster. I don't buy into that. At worst, Butler and Adebayo give Miami the second and third-best players on the court if Jayson Tatum is the No. 1 player. Jaylen Brown is having a bad series. His head doesn't seem right. Al Horford is showing his age as the long season winds down for Boston, while the Heat are getting major contributions from below-the-radar rotation players Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson.

Coaching is crucial in the playoffs. Erik Spoelstra is coaching rings around inexperienced rookie Boston coach Joe Mazzulla.

The Heat have covered in 10 of their last 13 games.

Yes, the Celtics are back home. But they are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven home games.

Mike Budenholzer, Monty Williams, Doc Rivers and Nick Nurse are about to have company in the fired coaches department.

Sometime Tuesday night after the Celtics get swept by the Heat, a team they were 13 games better than during the regular season, Boston management needs to pull the plug on Joe Mazzulla.

The Celtics have shown no leadership, coaching ability and guts in losing the first three games of this Eastern Conference Finals. Boston was outscored by an average of 6.5 points in its two home games in the series and then was blown out by 26 points in Miami during Sunday's Game 3. The Celtics have surrendered an average of 120.6 points to the Heat, who were the lowest-scoring team in the NBA.

Somewhere Red Auerbach is turning over in his grave. I've closely watched the NBA for 60 years and have never seen a worse coaching job in a playoff series than what the overmatched Mazzulla has done. Every button he touches is the wrong one. Boston's confidence and morale is shattered.

So why should things be any different in Game 4? Answer: They won't be.

The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 6-0 in their six home playoff games. Mazzulla isn't suddenly going to outcoach Erik Spoelstra. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are still going to give Miami the best all-around player on the court and best big man even if Mazzulla decides he might want to finally double-team Butler a little more.

The Celtics are 31-for-106 (29.2 percent) from 3-point range. Jaylen Brown, showing he's not ready for prime time, has missed 18 of 20 3-pointers. The Celtics are due to make a higher percentage of their 3-point shots. But I have no confidence in them to do that - and sadly neither do they.

Judging by the first three games of this series, Denver clearly is the superior team. The Nuggets have a huge height advantage, they are the more physically imposing team, are getting better play from their bench than LA is and have the look of a champion while the Lakers are worn down - physically and mentally.

The Nuggets proved they could win on the road, beating the Lakers, 119-108, in LA. this past Saturday night. Denver was in control all the way. So I see the wrong team being favored.

The Lakers did a remarkable job to even reach this point. There were 12 teams ahead of them in late February. LA became the first team to advance to the conference finals after being eight games under .500.

But 13 playoff games against the Grizzlies and Warriors and now three games against the Nuggets with just one day spaced out have taken a huge toll. It's caught up to 38-year-old LeBron James, fragile Anthony Davis and the rest of the Lakers.

The Lakers don't have the height to contest the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic is averaging 27 points, 14.7 rebounds and 11.3 assists in the series. LA can't stop him. Jamal Murray is averaging 35 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists. They have been the two best players in the series. The Lakers have no answers for either one.

Denver's support cast has outplayed the Lakers, too. Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown have hurt the Lakers not just with their scoring, but with their defense.

The Lakers are averaging 105.5 points in the last two games. That's 12 points down from their season average.

Getting points with Denver is just an added bonus.

The first two games of this Eastern Conference Finals series went Over. Now it's time for an Under with the teams playing in Miami.

The Heat were the No. 2 defensive team in the league. They've been tough defensively at home giving up an average of 97.1 points in their last six postseason games, which consisted of three games against the Knicks, two versus the Bucks and one against the Bulls.

The Celtics need to find their defense. I expect Boston to play with desperate intensity on defense down 2-0 in the series. The Celtics ranked in the top-five in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

Maybe if Brad Stevens would immediately fire Joe Mazzulla and install himself as coach again the Celtics might have a chance to beat the Heat. But since that isn't going to happen, the Heat are likely to keep winning especially now that they are the home team.

There are five things we've learned from the first two games of this Eastern Conference Finals, which the Heat lead, 2-0:

Jimmy Butler is the best all-around player on the court. Grant Williams is an idiot. Jaylen Brown is not a star. Bam Adebayo is the best big man on the court. Mazzulla is hugely overmatched by Erik Spoelstra on the sidelines.

The Heat won the first two games of this series on the road by an average of 6 1/2 points. The Celtics aren't playing championship caliber defense giving up an average of 117 points to Miami.

Maybe the Celtics turn on their defensive switch. I don't see it. I have absolutely zero faith in rookie coach Mazzulla. Miami has the momentum and is the more confident team. The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They have won all five of their playoff home games.

Getting points with the Heat is just a bonus.

The Nuggets and their coach, Michael Malone, believe they are being disrespected by the national media who tend to play up the high-profile Lakers.

Yes, perhaps Nikola Jokic should have won a third straight MVP award.

But the Nuggets can't be considered a great team if they can't win on the road. Denver has yet to prove that. The Nuggets finished the regular season an embarrassing 19-22 away from home and are 2-3 SU and ATS in their five playoff road games.

The Lakers are 6-0 SU and ATS at home during the postseason. They've covered five of the past six times they've hosted Denver.

The Nuggets lead the series 2-0 by virtue of winning both of their home games. However, the Nuggets didn't cover either game winning by six and five points, respectively. Denver had to hang on to win these games despite Jokic playing at the highest level and Jamal Murray averaging 34 points.

The teams have each won four of the eight quarters played. The Lakers have been to the free throw line 12 more times than the Nuggets. And this was in Denver. Now the scene shifts to LA where the Lakers are in must-win mode and the Nuggets have played much worse away from Denver.

The Lakers aren't just a two man team of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura have stepped up, combining to average 41.5 points per game.

The oddsmaker seems to be anticipating Celtics money making Boston this big of a favorite. The Zig/Zag is in full force here with the Celtics down 0-1 in the series and playing at home. 

But I'm not buying into it. There's too much value on the Heat - just like in Wednesday's series opener - to turn down this inflated point spread.
The Celtics outscored Miami in three of the four quarters in Game 1. Yet the Heat still won, 123-116. 

The Heat are playing with tremendous confidence. They are not the No. 8 seed that had to beat the Bulls in a play-in game to even reach the playoffs. It's wrong to think of them in that context. Certainly the Bucks and Knicks don't think that way now. 

Miami is an extremely well-coached, a strong defensive team - No. 2 in the league in fewest points allowed - that is being willed to win by Jimmy Butler. He's the best all-around player on the court. The Heat also have the best big man, Bam Adebayo. 

These teams know each extremely well, which should portend a much closer game than the oddsmaker projects. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Heat lost by more than nine points. I certainly want Erik Spoelstra going for me rather than rookie coach Joe Mazzulla. 

Miami has covered eight of the last 10 times when playing on one day's rest. The Heat also are 6-1 in their last seven games following a cover and are 14-5 ATS the last 19 times playing the Celtics in Boston.

The Lakers shot 55 percent from the floor in Game 1 of this Western Conference Finals series against the Nuggets on Tuesday. They hit 46 percent of their 3-point shots and were 23 of 26 from the foul line. LeBron James and Anthony Davis played at their superstar best combining to go 23-for-39 from the field for 59 percent.

Yet the Lakers still lost by six points, 132-126.

The Lakers couldn't overcome Nikola Jokic - the best player on the planet - a huge size disadvantage and Denver's strong home-court edge.

The Nuggets are 7-0 in their home playoff games. The 132 points is the most points they've scored in their dozen playoff games this spring.

The Game 2 point spread, however, opened lower than it was in Game 1.

So I'm going Nuggets not forgetting Denver is a No. 1 seed. LA is a seventh-seed.

Lakers coach Darvin Ham prefers to go with a small, three-guard oriented lineup. That's not going to work against the Nuggets, who have a frontline of 6-foot-11 Jokic, 6-10 Michael Porter Jr. and 6-8 Aaron Gordon. The Nuggets slaughtered the Lakers on the boards, 47-30.

Ham isn't a moron. He knows he can't go small against the Nuggets. But to do that, he and the Lakers have to adjust on the road. LA also is trailing in a playoff series for the first time having opened with road wins against the Grizzlies and Warriors. All of this could put the Lakers out of their comfort zone.

Jokic was unstoppable with 34 points, 21 rebounds and 14 assists. The Lakers have no antidote for him. Meanwhile James and Davis could be pressed to repeat their top-notch Game 1 performances particularly Davis, who was 14-of-23 from the field and made all 11 of his free throws scoring 40 points.

Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games - and that includes not covering against the Lakers in Game 1. LA is 1-4 ATS in its last five away games. The Lakers also are 4-10-1 ATS during their past 15 games in Denver.

Prop Bet

Rui Hachimura OVER 11 1/2 points

Here's the thing about Rui Hachimura. When he plays, he's an underrated scorer. Lakers coach Darvin Ham figured out in Game 1 that he couldn't play his usual small lineup of three guards against the much taller Nuggets.

It took Ham a half to realize that. Hachimura, a 6-foot-8 rotation forward, played the entire fourth quarter. That's a strong sign Hachimura is going to draw big minutes in this Game 2. He responded by scoring 17 points in Game 1. So I look for him to score at least a dozen points in this game.