Golden State is the better team and the set up is right for the Warriors.

The Warriors led by 29 points when they rolled past the Clippers, 121-104, in their first meeting in early November. They are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 Western Conference matchups.

Golden State is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and also has a top-five offense. No other NBA team is in the top-five offensively and defensively.

The Warriors have David Lee back and will be highly motivated following a shocking loss in its last game this past Tuesday against the Lakers. Note that game was played at Staples Center where this matchup is. So the Warriors are rested. The Clippers aren't, though. This is their third game in four days. They've been at San Antonio and had to fly in from Atlanta where they played two nights ago. This makes their third time zone in four nights.

Golden State has won and covered 75 percent of the time this season in the 12 games it has played against teams with a winning record. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS the last six times when they faced an opponent with an above .600 winning percentage.

Contrast this with the Clippers who are 4-7 SU, 2-9 ATS when facing foes above .500 and are 1-6 ATS when taking on foes with an above .600 winning percentage. The Clippers also have failed to cover 13 of their last 18 home games. 

Don't be fooled by the Hawks' 18-7 record. Atlanta has played the weakest schedule of any team. The Hawks have some talented players, but they aren't that good and point guard Jeff Teague may be out. Atlanta is 2-18 in its last 20 road games versus Western Conference opponents.

Houston is holding foes to 93 points a game at home. The Rockets have the No. 2 defense in the league and have won 19 straight games at home versus Eastern Conference foes.

The Rockets' eight-game winning streak was snapped in a 99-90 home loss to New Orleans. The Rockets had no legs in that game after winning in high altitude the night before in overtime against Denver. It has been more than a year since the Rockets have lost back-to-back home games.   

I don't see any way the Jazz can win three straight road games. This is Utah's fifth game in seven days - all road contests and their second matchup with in 48 hours.

The Hornets have a poor record, but that's in part because they've played a very difficult schedule. They should start to get better as they are healthier and some of their players such as Gerald Henderson are playing better.

The Hornets hold a strong inside-outside edge on Utah with Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker.

Orlando is a much improved team. The Magic went 23-59 last season. Orlando is 10-18 this season and has played the most road games in the league at 19.

Now the Magic are in a stop-the-pain game after consecutive road losses to Toronto and Boston. Sometimes returning home after a road swing can be tricky, especially coming home to sunny central Florida. But this was just a short tip that ended two nights ago so I'm expecting a focused Orlando effort.

Utah is in a rare letdown spot after winning for just the second times in its last 14 games defeating Miami on the road, 105-87, this past Wednesday. The Jazz sank an insane 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range in the victory.

This marks the Jazz's fourth road game in a row. It's their third road game in four days and fourth matchup in six days. Utah is 3-10 away from Salt Lake City. The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home contests versus opponents with a losing road record.

Orlando defeated the Jazz in Salt Lake City, 98-93, two weeks ago despite missing their best inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Orlando is a much better team with Vucevic back in the lineup. The 7-footer is shooting 51 percent from the floor. Utah ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage.  

Golden State has won 16 of its last 17 and are eager to start a new winning streak after losing on Tuesday at Memphis. The Warriors are 8-1 at home, winning their last six there.

The Warriors have no flaws. They rank No. 1 defensively and are sixth offensively.

Oklahoma City is not all the way back despite going 7-1 since Kevin Durant returned. The Thunder have played an extremely easy schedule since Durant has been back facing opponents who were a combined 50 games under .too. They also caught the Cavaliers without LeBron James, Kings without DeMarcus Cousins and Suns without Goran Dragic.

In a few weeks, the Thunder may very well be as good as Golden State, but right now the Warriors are better even without Andrew Bogut especially when factoring in home-court.

The Bucks have the best point spread mark in the NBA at 17-8. That includes a 9-5 ATS road record. They have a strong ATS mark versus Western Conference foes covering 11 of the past 15 times and have gotten the money in five of their last six meetings against Portland.

Milwaukee has won in two of its last three visits to Portland, losing last season in overtime.

The Bucks did lose their prize rookie, Jabari Parker, for the season in their road win against the Suns two nights ago. That put a damper on that victory, but I feel the Bucks will come out fired up in their first game without Parker. 

This is a sandwich spot for Portland, which knocked off San Antonio at home two nights ago and plays at San Antonio on Friday. The Spurs are a far more important opponent to Portland than non-conference foe Milwaukee.

The Trail Blazers are scoring 4.4 points less per game than last season. However, their defense has improved. Yet the Trail Blazers also suffered a key injury in their last game when center Robin Lopez broke his hand. Lopez had spearheaded Portland's defense. He was averaging 9.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots.

Now the Trail Blazers have to use over-the-hill, Chris Kaman at center, weakening their interior defense. The Bucks have scored 50 or more points in the paint during three of their last four games.

Orlando is much improved this season with some underrated young players. They also have Nikola Vucevic back and are in a good situational spot.

The Raptors had to rally from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to beat New York on Sunday in overtime on the road. The Raptors are just 5-4 in their last nine games after a fast start. They lack a consistent go-to guy with DeMar DeRozan out.

Orlando is at its best on the road. The Magic have covered 12 of their last 16 away matchups. This is a revenge spot for them after the Raptors came from 11 down to nip them on the road, 104-100, last month. 

The Raptors host the Nets in their next game in two nights. The Nets eliminated them in a bitter seven-game playoff series last season.

The Spurs have had one full day to stew after losing at home to the Lakers this past Friday. The words "pitiful" should be seared on the Spurs' minds. That's what Gregg Popovich called their performance versus the Lakers.

I'm expecting the Spurs to play at a high intensity level against the 10-13, inconsistent Nuggets.

San Antonio is 16-6 ATS when playing on one day's rest. That mark isn't a fluke since Popovich is the best coach in the business and the most dangerous with time to prepare.

The Spurs can't afford not to be sharp with upcoming games against Portland twice, Memphis, Dallas, Clippers and Thunder.

Denver isn't playing well losing five of its last six. This includes a 108-96 road loss to Houston last night.

The Spurs match up well to the Nuggets particularly inside with Tim Duncan. The Spurs swept the Nuggets last season winning by an average of nearly 20 points a game. They have defeated Denver in 12 of the past 16 meetings. Duncan has dominated Denver averaging 22.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.2 blocks during the past six meetings.

The 76ers should come in to this home matchup motivated after an embarrassing 88-70 road loss to the Nets last night. The 76ers have better talent than their record shows.

This is a tricky spot for Memphis. It's the Grizzlies' lone road game during a six-game span and they just outlasted Charlotte, 113-107, in double overtime last night. All but one of Memphis' starters played big minutes. The Grizzlies do not have a strong bench. 

The Grizzlies have far more important games on deck - hosting Golden State on Tuesday and playing at San Antonio on Wednesday. So for this game they just want to come away with a victory with no need to go all out to cover any double-digit type margin.

The 76ers have covered five of their last seven and are 7-4 ATS at home this season.

Golden State has won 14 in a row. The perception is the Warriors have achieved this by offense. But it has been their outstanding defense. Golden State leads the NBA in defense holding foes to 94.5 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors also rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 40.9 percent. No team has shot better than 44 percent against the Warriors from the field during Golden State's winning streak.

This is an early start - which should help the under. The Mavericks are about offense, but they don't have the young legs to engage in an up-tempo battle with Stephen Curry. Dallas won't have point guard Jameer Nelson either. That's a plus for the under, too, as Nelson is too old to keep pace with Curry.

The under has cashed five of the last six times these teams have met.

The Trail Blazers have been playing above their heads and it caught up to them in their last game, a shocking 90-82 road loss to Minnesota two nights ago. The Trail Blazers scored a season-low and had their worst shooting game of the season.

I'm expecting better from Portland today, but not enough for them to beat the Bulls.

The Bulls are getting healthier, Derrick Rose is looking better and Tom Thibodeau has dialed up the intensity level. That came together in a 105-80 rout of Brooklyn this past Wednesday. I'm expecting the Bulls to have a carryover performance and remain sharp, especially with a strong revenge motive.

The Trail Blazers dealt Chicago its worst defeat of the season when they hosted them on Nov. 21, winning 105-87. The Bulls didn't have Rose, Pau Gasol and Kirk Hinrich in that game. Joakim Noah may not play today, but other than that the Bulls are healthy.

Portland hasn't played a winning team during its last eight road games. The only good team the Trail Blazers have played on the road was the Clippers early in the season when the Clippers were struggling. Portland doesn't have a strong bench and is playing on the road for the third time in four days and fourth in six days.

The Trail Blazers are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

The Hornets have been idle since Friday and could start to finally make a move after getting past the Knicks in their last game. The Hornets have been a huge disappointment, but this matchup sets up well for them.

Not only have the Hornets been idle for the last four days being home the whole time, but Boston is coming off back-to-back games against the Wizards this past Sunday and Monday, the latter being a double-overtime game.

Lance Stephenson has started to play better for Charlotte. Al Jefferson should have another big scoring game in the paint against Boston's weak post players and defensive whiz Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is expected to play for the first time in 13 games after being out with a foot injury.

The Magic are much improved this season and may get back leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, who has missed the past four games with a back injury. Orlando has been idle since Saturday giving it enough time to recover and get its focus back after six consecutive road games. The Magic nearly won four of those last five. They defeated the Suns, Jazz and Kings and fell to Golden State by only one point. 

The Wizards are playing for the third time in four days. Their last game was a double overtime win against Boston, 133-132, two nights ago.

Washington is a .500 team on the road averaging eight points less than at home. The Wizards may be without Nene, who has a sore knee.

This is far more a play against the Kings then a play on the Lakers.

Sacramento really struggles without DeMarcus Cousins, its best player and go-to guy. The Kings beat Utah, 101-92, at home last night. The Jazz have lost nine in a row and missed 14 of 17 shots from 3-point range. All of the Kings starters except one played between 32 and 36 minutes.

This was just the second time in 18 games the Kings have won when Cousins hasn't played. Cousins is suffering from viral meningitis and is expected to be out for at least another week. Even with the win over the pathetic Jazz, the Kings are giving up six more points per game when Cousins has been out.

Sacramento doesn't have a strong bench. Due to quirky scheduling, this is the Kings' only road matchup during an 11-game stretch. It's also their fourth game in five days. The combination of being on the road, not having Cousins and carrying a high fatigue rating all work strongly against the Kings. 

The Lakers last played on Sunday and didn't play well in a home loss to the Pelicans. But in their previous home game, the Lakers knocked off Toronto. The Lakers have won 11 of the past 12 home meetings against the Kings and covered all four games last season versus Sacramento. 

I'm expecting a strong effort from the Bucks, perhaps the most improved team in the NBA at 11-11. Milwaukee allowed Dallas to shoot 58.3 percent from the floor in its last game two days ago in a 125-102 road loss.

Bucks coach Jason Kidd questioned his team's energy and effort after the game. Milwaukee is 28-11-1 ATS following a straight-up loss.

The Bucks draw the Thunder playing at home for the first time in a week. Oklahoma City just returned from a three-game road trip where it wasn't particularly sharp losing to the Pelicans, beat the 76ers by 12 and hung on to nip the Pistons by two this past Sunday. The Thunder have a marquee matchup up next when they host LeBron James and Cleveland on Thursday in a nationally televised game.

This will be Kevin Durant's fourth game back after missing the first 17 games with a broken foot. His minutes are being capped at around 30 per game. The Thunder remain a work in progress as Durant and Russell Westbrook, who also had been out, get back in sync with their teammates and new roles are adjusted.

The Bucks have covered nine of their last 12 versus Western Conference foes while Oklahoma City is 2-11 ATS against Eastern Conference teams.

These two teams are similar with their up-tempo styles and scoring from the perimeter. Dallas is the top scoring team in the NBA, but the Suns rank sixth in points per game and are No. 1 in free throw percentage.

Phoenix got back on track with a 116-99 home win against Indiana. That was back on Tuesday. The rested Suns haven't played since. They could have back Isaiah Thomas, who has missed the past four games with an ankle injury.

Dallas just finished a 4-0 road trip against Eastern Conference foes. The Mavericks haven't been home in more than a week so their focus and concentration may be off. The Mavericks have won five in a row, but none of those victories were by more than seven points.

The Mavericks are surrendering 108.6 points per game during their last six games, although two of those games went into overtime. After slow starts, Phoenix guards Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe have picked up their games. Dragic has scored more than 20 points in back-to-back games for the first time this season while Bledsoe is averaging better than 20 points during his last five games.

The Sun have covered 69 percent of the time the last 29 times when facing an opponent with a winning home record.

The Cavaliers weren't in sync when the Raptors buried them, 110-93, nearly two weeks ago in Cleveland.

Toronto remains worthy of much respect. But much has changed since that game. The Raptors have lost their top scoring threat with DeMar DeRozan out indefinitely with a groin injury. Cleveland has picked up its defense and its chemistry has improved. The Cavaliers have won five in a row since that embarrassing loss to Toronto.

Now the Cavaliers want their revenge. Cleveland played last night and nearly got caught looking ahead to this matchup before overtaking the lowly Knicks, winning 90-87 at Madison Square Garden. The Cavaliers need to play as much as possible in order to keep getting used to their new faces. Plus it's still very early in the season so it's not such a disadvantage for the Cavaliers to play without rest. Their adrenaline should kick in with this revenge spot.

Toronto is the second highest-scoring team in the NBA. But the Cavaliers have stepped up their defense holding their past five foes to an average of 90.6 points per game on 42.6 percent shooting from the floor. 

The Raptors give up the 16th most points in the league and rank 23rd in defensive field goal percentage. They have had problems guarding talented wing players. So James could be in for another monster game. The Cavaliers have covered five of the last six times when meeting an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

The spot sets up right for Miami. The Heat have revenge motivation, Dwayne Wade back in the lineup and playing well and catch the Hawks off a narrow home win against the Celtics last night when they had to come from behind by 22 points to pull out the victory.

The Hawks exerted a lot of energy in that win against the Celtics. Miami has had Wade back for two games now after he missed seven games with a hamstring injury. He had 27 points in a win against the Knicks this past Sunday and 20 against Washington on Monday. The Heat, though, were blown out in that game against the Wizards. However, Miami was playing without rest and Washington had a revenge motive.

Those factors are switched around for this matchup. Atlanta beat Miami, 114-103, less than three weeks ago. The Hawks shot 56 percent in that victory. Miami has tightened its defense since then. The Heat are more than capable of beating good teams at home as evidenced by an earlier victory against Toronto.

Scoring isn't a problem for the Lakers. The Lakers average better than 104 points per game and that number should increase with sharpshooter Nick Young back in sync after being out.

Defense is a problem for LA. The Lakers surrender 112 points per game, highest in the league. They also are second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage and give up the third most points in the paint.

That's huge for this matchup because Detroit likes to pound away inside with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe. The problem for Detroit is Drummond and Monroe are having terrible shooting seasons so far as is Josh Smith.

Drummond is making just 44.8 percent of his field goals. That number should start to rise, though, beginning with this game as Drummond has shot 60.8 percent and 62.3 percent, respectively, during his first two years in the NBA. Monroe is hitting 48.6 percent of his shots from the floor down from his career 50 percent mark. Smith always has been a bad shooter, but he managed to make 41.9 percent of his field goals last season. This season, Smith is making only 37.7 percent of his shots from the field.

Some of this has to do with the competition. Detroit has played eight opponents ranked in the Top 11 in defense during its last 13 games. The Lakers are a monster drop from those teams.

The Pistons have been a much better over team at home where the over has cashed 67 percent the past 52 times. The Lakers have gone over in six of their last seven road games and 68 percent during their last 22 matchups versus Eastern Conference foes.

Boston has been bad at home, but sports a winning ATS road record. The spot and matchup set up well for the Celtics to keep this game extremely competitive.

The Hawks rolled past Charlotte, 105-75, at home this past Saturday. Atlanta had a revenge motive in that matchup after falling to the Hornets in triple overtime on Nov. 7. The Hawks have an important Southeast Division road matchup on Wednesday against Miami. So this matchup is a letdown spot for them. 

The Hawks have covered less than 20 percent the past 31 times when playing on two day's rest. This angle has merit because it falls squarely during the two-year coaching reign of Mike Budenholzer.

Speaking of Budenholzer, he was an assistant coach to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs before taking the Hawks job. The Hawks are very similar to the Spurs in the plays and offense they run. The Celtics just faced the Spurs this past Sunday at home. So they should be well prepared. Note, too, that Budenholzer was not at practice on Tuesday because of illness.

The Celtics got buried against the Spurs, but the Hawks are several tiers lower than the Spurs. The Celtics match up much better to Atlanta because they are competitive size-wise and can compete on the boards. The Hawks rank 27th in rebounds per game.

Boston has dropped four in a row. Those defeats, however, came to the Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Bulls with Derrick Rose and Spurs. Those teams are all better than Atlanta.  

San Antonio played at Boston yesterday. The Spurs have far tougher games on this road trip coming Wednesday versus the Nets and Grizzlies on Friday. So Gregg Popovich's has decided to sit out Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. I'm not expecting heavy minutes either from the rest of San Antonio's starters. 

The 76ers shouldn't lack for motivation hosting the world champions and having revenge for a 100-75 embarrassment to the Spurs two weeks ago.

Taking advantage of inflated lines such as this, the 76ers have posted a winning spread record at home this season and are 7-2 ATS versus opponents with an above .600 record. Philadelphia has lost by 11 points or fewer in all but two of its last eight defeats. 

Portland is hot. Charlotte is not. But circumstances make this a good spot for the Hornets.

The Trail Blazers are playing their third road game in four days. They just played two weak foes - Boston and Philadelphia - and are leaving after this game to return to the West Coast where they have a much bigger game on deck hosting Memphis on Friday. So this is a flat spot for them.

The Hornets are 4-11 on the season. However, five of those 11 defeats were decided on the final possession. They nearly beat Portland on the road on Nov. 11 losing by two points after leading by 23.

The Hornets usually are at their best in a 'dog role covering six of the past nine times during the regular season when taking more than four points. They have a strong inside presence with Al Jefferson, who is starting to get some help with Cody Zeller's improved play, and backcourt scoring with Kemba Walker. Lance Stephenson makes Charlotte a better team, too, although he hasn't played up to expectations yet.

The Trail Blazers entered their current trip giving up 15 points more on the road than at home. Their first two games were against very bad teams. So this comes down to Portland being a little overrated and Charlotte not as bad as its record. Factor in the situational elements and the Hornets are a very live 'dog.

My first tendency is to fade Eastern Conference clubs when taking on good teams from the Western Conference. But this matchup rates an exception.

Toronto is the premier team in the East right now at 11-2 and playing with substantial confidence after a 17-point victory this past Saturday against the Cavaliers and LeBron James. That was Toronto's fourth win in a row.

The Raptors catch the Suns at the end of a six-game road trip. The Suns have strung together four consecutive victories. That's not as impressive as it sounds, however, as those wins have been against the Celtics, Pistons, 76ers and Pacers - teams with a combined record of 12-39.

Now the Suns are stepping up in class while facing a high fatigue factor as this marks their third road game in four days. The Suns don't have size to fall back on either. They win with quickness, fast-breaks and outstanding guard play.

Toronto has the versatility and outstanding backcourt to match that plus sixth man Louis Williams is off his best game of the season.

The Raptors have matched up to the West covering five of the last six times against the conference. They also have a double revenge motive after losing both games to Phoenix last season.

The Suns finally get to head home to the desert following this game. I'm not expecting them to produce anywhere near an "A" game.

The Hawks have been stewing for three days after being upset at home by the lowly Lakers this past Tuesday. They are anxious to redeem themselves and have a patsy to take their frustrations out on - the Pistons.

Detroit is 1-6 in its last seven games and really struggling offensively under new coach Stan Van Gundy. The Pistons rank 27th in scoring and 29th in field goal percentage. Only once has Detroit reached triple-digits this season. They have also lost in 10 of their past 11 visits to Atlanta.

Morale is not good right now in Detroit either. The latest to clash with Van Gundy is Josh Smith, who is having another horrible season making less than 37 percent of his shots from the floor. The Hawks know all too well about Smith's ball hogging and low percentages since he was a former long-time teammate.

Detroit's strength is an active frontcourt, but Atlanta more than counters that with All-Stars Paul Millsap and Al Horford. Jeff Teague is a much better point guard, too, than Brandon Jennings.

The Hornets are home after playing four good scoring Western Conference teams on the road. The Hornets allowed an average of 104 points per game in matchups against the Lakers, Suns, Trail Blazers and Warriors.

Now Charlotte gets Dallas, which leads the NBA in scoring at 109.5 points and is second in field goal percentage.

The Mavericks have padded some of their numbers against weak competition, but still have reached triple digits in eight of their 10 games. They are getting balanced scoring and likely to catch a break in that Charlotte may still be without one of its best defensive players, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He's missed the past two games with a stress reaction in his foot.

The Hornets should be able to get a large share of points in the paint thanks to Al Jefferson, who is averaging better than 21 points per game and can take advantage of Dallas centers Tyson Chandler and slender Brandan Wright. Chandler is having a highly productive season so far, but has had problems staying out of foul trouble when guarding elite post men.

Lance Stephenson is playing better, too, for the Hornets. The Mavericks are below average defensively ranking 18th allowing 100 points per game. 

The teams met on Nov. 1 and the Warriors destroyed the Lakers, 127-104, at home. Now the scene shifts to Staples Center, but nothing has changed.

The Warriors have far too much firepower for the Lakers. LA can't stop the Warriors' fast break. The Warriors scored 19 more points than the Lakers in transition during the first meeting. Stephen Curry against Jeremy Lin is a huge point guard mismatch for the Warriors.

The line is reduced a little because the Warriors played last night. But Golden State didn't have to play anyone more than 30 minutes in blowing out Charlotte, 112-87, at home. It's just a short plane ride from northern California to southern California.

Kobe Bryant continues to hurt the Lakers with his ball-hogging and horrendous shooting. Bryant is shooting just 31.8 percent from the floor during his last four games. Yes, the prideful Bryant could get hot, but he has no help. The Warriors are far deeper and more explosive. They also don't share any love for the Lakers, who bullied them for many years. 

The Knicks are reeling. Maybe they will get it going but for now they are in deep trouble. New York has multiple injuries, low morale, plays below average defense and has been unable to grasp first year head coach Derek Fisher's triangle offense. The Knicks average only 92.4 points per game, which ranks 26th. They are 18th in defensive field goal percentage.

The result is a seven game losing streak. Only once all season have the Knicks managed to score 100 points. They are painful to watch struggling on offense with a bunch of guys who only are on the roster because of multiple injuries the latest being a hip-pointer suffered by guard Iman Shumpert, perhaps the only underrated player on the Knicks. Already out are starting point guard Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani.

The Knicks are forced to use Shane Larkin and Pablo Prigioni at point guard. Neither is NBA starting-caliber if even worthy of being on a roster. They should get eaten up by Ty Lawson.   

Denver has been terrible, too. I'm not a fan of its coach, Brian Shaw. But the Nuggets are off their best game, a confidence-building blowout road win against the Pacers.

Yes, the Pacers are even more decimated with injuries than the Knicks. But the Nuggets have a deep roster with some talent. Some of those players were injured and are beginning to play more minutes now, including Danilo Gallinari. The Nuggets get up for this game, too, because of former teammate Carmelo Anthony.

The Raptors made the playoffs last season and are better this season. Unlike some teams, the Raptors can be counted on to give a full effort every game. They have good chemistry under Dwane Casey.

This is an excellent spot for the Raptors to score a blowout victory after suffering their first home loss of the season this past Thursday on national TV against the Bulls. That was a rare home national TV game and the Raptors didn't shoot well while the Bulls did.

Utah is a young, rebuilding team that ranks 25th in defensive field goal percentage. The Jazz are up and down headed for the lottery again. They are coming off a dramatic buzzer-beating victory against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last night.

I see the Jazz letting down here as they look forward to finally heading back to Salt Lake City. This is Utah's fifth road game in seven days. These games have been in the Midwest, South and East Coast. The Jazz are tired and lack a strong bench.

Toronto has been home for the past nine days. Toronto's big men will fare better against Utah's frontline than they did against Pau Gasol. The Raptors, as mentioned, will play hard and have a stronger bench than Utah. The spot and matchup are right for the Raptors to blow out Utah.

The Spurs are rounding into form. The Lakers don't have nearly the goods to keep this matchup within single digits.

San Antonio is 11-6 ATS the past 17 times when laying 7 or more points during the regular season. The Spurs can tear the Lakers' weak interior defense apart with Tim Duncan inside. No team gives up more points inside the paint than the Lakers.

The Spurs also have the perimeter game to take advantage of the Lakers' weak outside defense. The Lakers rank last in defensive field goal percentage and points per game giving up 111.5.

San Antonio is rested after posting back-to-back road victories against the Clippers and Warriors - two teams light years ahead of the Lakers.

The Lakers are paper thin at point guard with backup Ronnie Price suspended for this game for committing a flagrant foul against the Hornets' Austin Rivers.

Kobe Bryant is leading the league in scoring, but is shooting less than 39 percent from the floor. Bryant can no longer single-handily will the Lakers into victory and Gregg Popovich knows it.

The Spurs do have a road game against the much-improved Kings on Saturday. But their next game after that one is on Monday at home against the winless 76ers.

The Spurs should be fresh having not played for two days. No coach is more dangerous with extra prep time than Popovich. San Antonio also is much deeper than LA so I don't see the backdoor being left open.

Detroit is more respectable under Stan Van Gundy. The Pistons can be trusted now to play stronger defense and give a better effort than during the recent past.

Oklahoma City has yet to win two games in a row. It's not just being without superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Thunder also are minus Perry Jones and Andre Roberson. The Pistons can match up to Oklahoma City's frontcourt with active Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe and have a stronger bench.

Detroit's scoring is down due mainly to poor shooting and free throw percentage. However, the Thunder are averaging just 90.3 points. They don't have enough offense and depth to beat many teams let alone cover margins.

Both teams are heavy into rebuilding, but the Bucks are further along. Milwaukee averages an NBA-best 46.4 points from its reserves and are among the best in limiting opponents in points allowed per 100 possessions. Orlando, by contrast, averages 20 points per game less than Milwaukee from its bench and ranks in the middle of the pack in giving up points per 100 possessions.

Not only do the Bucks hold a big bench edge, but also at point guard with underrated Brandon Knight against work-in-progress rookie Elfrid Payton, who is extremely limited offensively shooting just 33.8 percent from the floor - and that's not attempting a 3-point shot yet. The Bucks also rank 17th in free throw percentage compared to the Magic, who are 28th.

Milwaukee last played on Tuesday. Orlando is coming back from a three-game road trip, its longest of the season so far. The Magic are young so their concentration could be off in their first game back at home.

The Bucks enter this matchup with confidence and momentum having posted consecutive victories over Memphis and Oklahoma City.

This is a step-up game for the Raptors made more so by a rare national television home appearance (TNT). The Raptors should be up to the challenge. They certainly will be highly motivated.

Toronto has won 26 of its past 33 games at Air Canada Centre. This includes a 5-0 mark this season. The Raptors made the playoffs last season and look better this season leading the NBA in scoring at 107 points per game.

The Bulls are not in sync yet with Derrick Rose in and out of the lineup bothered by ankle sprains. The Bulls' defense is down ranking 14th in points per game allowed and second-to-last in defensive rebounding.

This is a good time for the Raptors to be meeting the Bulls. Toronto hasn't played a daunting schedule, but neither has Chicago. The Bulls' last six games have been against the Timberwolves, Magic, Bucks, 76ers, Celtics and Pistons, who they defeated this past Monday night. Chicago is 1-8 ATS the past nine times it has played following a victory.

The Raptors are in good physical shape. This is their fourth consecutive home game. They nearly got caught peeking ahead to this matchup, but rallied from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to beat Orlando, 104-100, two nights ago. The Raptors don't play again until Saturday when they host Utah. This is the game they are pointing to.

Toronto has covered the past seven times it has hosted an opponent with a winning road record. The Raptors have also covered in nine of their last 12 meetings versus the Bulls.

The Raptors' two key big men, Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson, are healthy and their underrated backcourt of Kyle Lowery and DeMar DeRozan rates an edge with Rose not 100 percent.

Milwaukee is much improved. The market hasn't quite caught on just how much better the Bucks are with underrated Brandon Knight at point guard, a healthy Larry Sanders, new coaching and ownership and a strong bench that ranks No. 1 in the league in scoring.

The Bucks want very much to prove themselves to the Thunder after years of suffering against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The timing is right for Milwaukee to do this. The Bucks last played on Saturday and don't play again until Friday when they go on a two-game road trip to Florida. Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS the last seven times it has played on two days rest.

Oklahoma City is decimated with injuries. The Thunder have just one healthy starter, Serge Ibaka, from last season. Their jerseys say Thunder, but their lineup is well below average. But after the Thunder upset fat-and-happy Sacramento at home in their last game this line comes out very short.

The Bucks' superior bench holds a huge edge against the thin Thunder reserves, many of whom wouldn't even hold roster spots if not for multiple injuries to starters. 

The Thunder have failed to cover in six of their last seven road games. They are not going to sneak up on the Bucks, who are home, motivated and pointing to this matchup as a key in turning the corner. 

The Lakers are terrible. Until beating the Hornets at home this past Sunday, the Lakers had lost their first five games by an average of 14.8 points. LA ranks last in points allowed per game at 112.7 and is at the bottom in defensive field goal percentage at 48.4. Ball hog Kobe Bryant has the biggest minus ratio in the league.

The Grizzlies were tough on the Lakers even before LA became terrible winning six of the last eight times. The Grizzlies should be in an angry mood after getting nipped at the end by the Bucks, 93-92, this past Saturday night in Milwaukee on a three-point play by Brandon Knight with one second left. That concluded a three-game road swing. Now the Grizzlies are at FedEx Forum where they have won 16 straight times.

Despite that loss to the upstart Bucks, the Grizzlies are tied for the best record in the NBA. Marc Gasol is healthy, unlike last year, and having a big season. Courtney Lee has improved his offense and Mike Conley gives the Grizzlies' a big edge at point guard against struggling Jeremy Lin.

Memphis is traditionally strong defensively and that's the case again this season as the Grizzlies rank No. 1 holding foes to under 88 points a game. That's 24 points fewer per game than the Lakers.

The Lakers got their needed victory. They won't be a match for the aroused Grizzlies.

Cleveland is getting more in sync with its Big Three. Kevin Love is putting up good numbers and LeBron James and Kyrie Irving combined for 17 assists in the Cavaliers' last game, a 110-101 road win against the Nuggets this past Friday.

The Cavaliers have lacked ball movement, but finished with a season-high 25 assists and a season-low nine turnovers versus the Nuggets. Granted Denver isn't very good, but if motivated and in sync the Cavaliers can blow out any team with their talent.

The Cavaliers are rested and should be well-prepared and highly motivated to get their first home win. They catch a tired Pelicans team that didn't get into Cleveland until 2 in the morning after upsetting the Spurs on the road Saturday night.

The 0-5 Lakers are off to the franchise's worst start. If the Lakers don't win this matchup they very well could open 0-13 because the next seven games are all tough.

This is a highly favorable situation for the desperate Lakers, who will be pushed hard by prideful Kobe Bryant. The Lakers have had four days off between games while the Hornets are playing for the sixth time in nine days.

Charlotte is traveling after a 122-119 double overtime home win against the Hawks two nights ago in a game they trailed most of the time. The Hornets have yet to win on the road and are making the journey to the West Coast.

The Mavericks have owned the Jazz, have an outstanding road ATS mark and will be fired up after laying an egg last night against Portland in an embarrassing 108-87 loss.

Prior to last night's loss to the Trail Blazers, the Mavericks were leading the NBA in scoring at 111.8 points per game and also were No. 1 in field goal percentage at 52.4. One road game doesn't mean the Mavericks' offense has suddenly gone down the tubes.

I see the Mavericks bouncing back in a big way against a team they have beaten 13 of the past 16 times. The youthful Jazz still could be celebrating their upset home win two nights ago against the Cavaliers and LeBron James when Gordon Hayward made a step-back jumper at the buzzer. 

Even with that victory, Utah is just 3-8-2 ATS in its last 13 home games. The Mavericks are a mind-boggling 52-22 (70 percent) ATS in their last 74 road contests. Dallas has beaten Utah the past six times, winning by an average of 12.3 points while shooting 52.6 percent from the field. The teams just met eight days ago in Dallas and the Mavericks had no problem beating Utah, 120-102. Dallas has covered in six of its last eight visits to Salt Lake City. 

This is the highest total on an Orlando game this season - and it's not justified. The under is 13-6-1 in Orlando's last 20 games.

Minnesota is improved defensively ranking a respectable 15th in points allowed per game at 100, while Orlando's weak offense has yet to reach triple digits. The Magic have broken the 95-point barrier only once in five games.

Neither team is very good from the foul line either. Orlando ranks 28th in free throw percentage while Minnesota is 19th.

The Magic lack a perimeter game missing last year's leading scorer Arron Afflalo. Both teams rely on their key big men, Nikola Vucevic for Orlando and Nikola Pekovic for Minnesota, to do their scoring. Those two are going to neutralize each other. The Timberwolves figure to have trouble scoring from the outside as only 10 teams rank higher than Orlando in defensive field goal percentage.

The Cavaliers aren't in sync yet with superstar newcomers LeBron James and Kevin Love. But they will be highly motivated to play well against the lowly Jazz after being embarrassed at Portland last night, 101-82. James was held to his lowest point total in six years.

Playing in the second of back-to-back games isn't this taxing so early in the season, especially since the Cavaliers had three days off prior to last night's game.

The youthful Jazz are at least another two years away from being a playoff contender. Their defense has been horrible giving up 110.3 points and 52.7 percent shooting from the floor during their three losses.

Despite their horrendous game last night to the Trail Blazers, the Cavaliers are getting good early numbers from James and Love. James is fourth in the league in scoring at 26.5 while Love's 15 rebounds per game rank No. 2.

This is a battle of unbeaten teams, but the Heat hold more edges.

Not only is Miami at home and rested having lasted played on Saturday, but the Heat draw the Rockets playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights.

The Rockets also are banged-up. Underrated point guard Patrick Beverley has missed the last two games with a strained hamstring and Dwight Howard is at less than 100 percent.

Houston has played a cup cake schedule. The Rockets' victories have been against the Lakers, Jazz, Celtics and 76ers. Those teams are a combined 2-13.

The Heat are averaging 109.3 points in their three games, second-highest in the NBA. So far the Heat have shown togetherness and are in sync despite no longer having LeBron James. The Heat have had six different players average in double digits and have recorded 75 assists, the second-highest total in the league. 

The Kings are coming off a home upset victory against the Trail Blazers and a huge upset road win against the Clippers on Sunday. The Kings host these same Nuggets on Wednesday before embarking on a four-game road trip.

I don't see the Kings having the maturity and bench strength to pull off a third consecutive upset, especially since this is their fourth game in six days and second in two days. The Kings have failed to cover six of the last seven times following a win.

Denver is playing fast led by lightening quick point guard Ty Lawson. The Nuggets just haven't been making their shots. That can change against a Kings defense that traditionally has been bad. 

The Nuggets are rounding into shape and will be highly motivated after losing their last game this past Saturday, 102-91, on the road to short-handed Oklahoma City. Nuggets coach Brian Shaw said his team looked like zombies. That should prove a strong wake-up call to his talented squad. 

Denver has far more depth than Sacramento and holds a backcourt edge.

The Clippers weren't sharp in dispatching the undermanned Thunder, 93-90, at home last night.

The Clippers will be less rusty tonight against their long-time city rival the Lakers. The Clippers are 7-1 in their last eight games against the Lakers winning the past three by an average of 35 points. They will make it a special point for new owner Steve Ballmer to bury the Lakers, who embarrassed them for years.

The Lakers were terrible during preseason averaging just 86 points during their last six exhibition games. Their poor play and startling lack of talent has carried into the regular season where they have lost by an average of 19 points to the Rockets at home and to the Suns.

The Clippers have a vastly better bench and a huge edge at point guard. The Lakers have yet to find a consistent No. 2 scorer behind Kobe Bryant.

The Pacers were able to get away with a starting lineup consisting of Solomon Hill, Luis Scola, Donald Sloan and C.J. Miles because they played the 76ers in their opener.

But now the Pacers step up to face the Grizzlies minus David West and point guard George Hill. Remember, the Pacers also are without Paul George and the departed Lance Stephenson.

Indiana's makeshift lineup is going to get exposed by the veteran, physical Grizzlies. Memphis has been one of the top defensive teams the past few years, including holding foes to the third-fewest points per game last season.

The Grizzlies weren't happy with their defense in their 105-101 opening-game victory against the Timberwolves. Expect an intense effort from Memphis. Given their huge starting lineup edge that should be enough to ensure a point spread cover.

Indiana has only covered seven of its last 22 home games. 

The Jazz are capable of playing better defense than they showed in last night's 104-93 home loss to the Rockets.

The Jazz were beaten in the 3-point game as Houston made 14 of 27 from long distance while Utah missed 15 of 18 3-pointers.

I see Utah tightening its perimeter defense, outrebounding the Mavericks who were seventh-from-the-bottom in rebounding margin last season and shooting better especially Gordon Hayward, who has caused problems for Dallas in the past.

The youthful Jazz are going to experience growing pains again this season. But they have fresh legs right now so playing for the second time in 48 hours shouldn't hurt them. They are 4-1 ATS the past five times when coming off a double-digit home loss.

Dallas is not a good home team versus the spread. The Mavericks failed to cover in eight of their last 10 regular season home games. This is their first home game of the season, which can be distracting and lead to overconfidence playing this weak opponent. The Mavericks face a tougher challenge in their next game when they play at New Orleans on Saturday.

The Mavericks nearly upset San Antonio in their opener on Tuesday. However, the Mavericks were outrebounded, allowed the Spurs to shoot 53 percent from the floor and only had 17 field goals raising concern about stagnant ball movement. 

There's no reason for the Mavericks to win by a huge margin or show much of their playbook as they meet the Jazz again a week from Friday in Salt Lake City. A simple single-digit victory will suffice nicely for Dallas.

New York's home-court advantage doesn't make up for this huge of a class difference.

The Bulls are anxious to start this new season after last season's playoff disappointment. Chicago has gotten better with Derrick Rose healthy and the additions of Pau Gasol and rookie Doug McDermott. The Bulls have a much deeper bench than New York.

The Knicks are going against the top defensive club in the NBA while adjusting to a triangle offense brought in by first-year coach Derrick Fisher. The Knicks struggled during preseason even giving up 120 points to the Bucks. J.R. Smith has yet to grasp the triangle and power forward Andrea Bargnani is out with a pulled hamstring.

The Knicks are going to have problems rebounding against Joakim Noah. New York's starting unit of Carmelo Anthony, Ian Shumpert, Jose Calderon, Jason Smith and Samuel Dalembert never played together during preseason. Anthony is a superstar, but the other four are not legitimate NBA starters.

The Bucks won only 15 games last season - and weren't tanking. Their season was ruined by injuries. Now the Bucks are healthy and well under-the-radar. They have four good players, including the favorite for rookie-of-the-year in Jabari Parker.

Milwaukee is going to be much improved. Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo are promising 19-year-olds who are budding stars. Brandon Knight is an underrated point guard, who will be helped by Jason Kidd as his coach. Larry Sanders is back after an injured and troubled season last year.

The Hornets are better as underdogs than favorites. They were unable to establish a true rotation during preseason because of multiple injuries.

Lance Stephenson missed the last four preseason games with a groin strain. If he plays, he'll be limited and rusty. Sixth man Gerald Henderson didn't play at all during the preseason and is probably out here, too.

The Hornets rely on Al Jefferson in the paint. Sanders, though, is a top-blocker and can neutralize Jefferson on the defensive end. Given the Bucks' improvement and Hornets' injuries and lack of continuity during preseason this is an excellent time to get on the Bucks.

Perception-wise this high total makes sense. The Rockets were the second-highest scoring team in the NBA last season while the Lakers ranked second-from-the-bottom in defense.

But perception and reality are two different things when it comes to this matchup and this high total. 

The Rockets have added some new veterans. They should help the Rockets improve their defense. Houston averaged just 91.5 points during its last four preseason games while holding foes to an average 86 points a game during this span.

The Lakers averaged 94.7 points in regulation during their last four preseason games.

The point guard matchup is Patrick Beverly against Jeremy Lin, which should be intense. Both were once teammates on the Rockets. Houston chose to go with Beverly, who is a hard-nose defender. The Rockets are well acquainted with Lin's game. Lin is going to play major minutes with Steve Nash out for the season and backup Ronnie Price not 100 percent and possibly out.

Dwight Howard isn't 100 percent either due to a cut in his arm. He's going to play, but he'll be rusty. This rust will show on offense and on his already horrendous free throw shooting not defense. Both teams have to deal with the rust of having been idle for three days.

The Spurs aren't just winning. They are dominating beating the Heat by an average of 20 points during the last two games. Both of those games were in Miami.

The Spurs own the matchup edges and the hunger after losing in the NBA Finals last year to Miami. The Heat can't just turn it off and on against the Spurs leaving them highly frustrated. LeBron James may be leaving Miami. So his focus may not be there. The Heat don't have the wide bodies, nor inside forces, to shut down both San Antonio's inside game of Tim Duncan and San Antonio's strong perimeter game.

Playing in the much stronger Western Conference has prepared the Spurs well. Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games versus Western Conference foes. The step up in class from the Bobcats, Nets and Pacers - all more half-court, pick-and-roll type of opponents - to the Spurs has been too much of a class difference for the Heat.

The Spurs have covered eight of their last nine home games. Everything is in their favor to get it done today. Look for them to accomplish this in convincing fashion.

I fully recognize Miami is 10-0 straight-up following a loss during the past two years in the playoffs, 9-1 ATS.

But there are two significant factors why San Antonio is the right play. No. 1 is tremendous line value. Miami's impressive trend of winning following a loss is duly noted by the oddsmaker. The Heat are a bigger favorite than what they were in Game 4 despite losing to the Spurs by 19 points at home just two days ago.

The second big reason is the Spurs are playing at a higher level. They have the right matchups in place to win this Game 4 straight-up.

It's easy to point out the Spurs shot 59.4 percent from the floor and 81.2 from the free throw line in Game 3 accounting for such a lopsided margin. That isn't likely to happen again against Miami's elite defense is it? Well, the Spurs' shooting percentages probably are not going to be that high, but the Heat haven't gone against a team that gets such great ball movement as the Spurs.

The Spurs were getting good looks the entire last game. Miami's defensive rotation was a step behind. The Heat weren't nearly active enough in the passing lanes - and they don't have the personnel to fix this problem in order to match up better to San Antonio.

The Heat have gone against predictable Eastern Conference offenses - which play more half-court and rely more on standard pick-rand-roll plays than the stronger, more athletic Western Conference foes. This is haunting Miami in the series.

The Spurs can score inside with Tim Duncan, have a strong perimeter game and are a top-five free throw shooting team. The Heat's lack of a shot-blocker in the middle is a major negative for them. Miami blocked just one of San Antonio's 64 shots during the last game. Miami has had only six blocks the entire series.

The Heat also lack an inside scoring presence. This has allowed coaching guru Gregg Popovich to allocate major minutes to Boris Diaw instead of defensive-minded Tiago Splitter. Diaw is a key to the Spurs' fantastic ball movement.

Miami was blown out in the last game despite shooting well making 51.6 percent of their field goals while sinking 10 of 21 shots from 3-point range. But turnovers are hurting the Heat. They have only two more assists than turnovers.

Right now the Heat's chemistry is off both offensively and defensively. San Antonio, behind wily Popovich, is a matchup nightmare. No doubt the Heat will have their full intensity going. But the Spurs are the superior team and playing better than Miami. Add in an inflated line and this becomes a solid play on the Spurs.
 

I'm not buying an eight-point line difference with the change of venue from San Antonio to Miami. These teams are very evenly matched. They showed it last year in the finals and so far that pattern has held up through the first two games.

The Spurs won Game 1 by 15 points aided by LeBron James leaving for good with 3:59 left after suffering cramps. The Heat nipped San Antonio in Game 2 by two points with the Spurs missing their final four free throws. The Heat shot 52.9 percent from the floor in the victory while the Spurs shot 43.9 and made only 12 of 20 free throws for 60 percent. Miami hit 16 of its 21 free throws for 76 percent.

Miami is one of the better defensive teams, but the Spurs were No. 2 in field goal percentage at 48.6 and fourth in free throw percentage at 78.5. So I'm expecting better numbers from San Antonio, which has the best road mark in the NBA at 33-16.

The Spurs know how to win in Miami, too, having accomplished the feat last year in their first road playoff game against the Heat and nearly doing it a second time before blowing a three-point lead with 5.2 seconds left and losing in overtime by three in Game 6.

Since the 2012 Eastern Conference finals, the Miami Heat have come back from a defeat to win the past 12 times in the following game going 11-1 ATS!

LeBron James and the Heat are going to play with super intensity after losing by 15 points in Game 1.

That final score may have been the most misleading in championship finals history. James cramped up after the air conditioning broke and couldn't finish the final 3:59. At the time, Miami was losing by only two points.

These teams are very close. The Spurs were only ahead by that small margin until James left. The Spurs shot 58.8 percent from the floor, sank 13 of 25 3-point shots and took twice as many free throws as Miami going to the foul line 22 times to the Heat's 11.

The Heat are a very strong defensive club The Spurs aren't going to shoot nearly that high of a percentage again while the Heat should make more than 47.4 percent of their field goals after leading the NBA in field goal percentage at 50.1 percent. Even with San Antonio scoring 110 points in Game 1, the Heat still are holding opponents to just 93 points per game in the playoffs.

Fueled by revenge after losing the championship series in seven games last year, the Spurs should be super fired up. San Antonio has covered each of its last seven home contests.

The long layoff should give Tony Parker's sore ankle ample time to heal. No coach is better with extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich.

San Antonio has won Game 1 during each of its three playoff series this season, winning by an average of 15.3 points. All were at home. Last year, the Spurs were 4-0 in opening playoff games winning by average of 9.7 points.

The Spurs defeated the Heat in the first game of last season's championship series and that was at Miami. The Spurs buried the Heat by 36 points the first time they hosted them in the title series last season, too.

San Antonio is better this season with a deeper bench. Miami isn't quite as good as last season. The Heat encountered some difficulty getting past Brooklyn and Indiana, much weaker foes than Oklahoma City, which San Antonio had to beat to reach these finals.

The Heat lost their first playoff road game to the Nets by 14 and also dropped their first away playoff game to the Pacers by 11.

The Spurs, with Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter, can exploit the Heat's lack of inside offense forcing the Heat to do the majority of their scoring from the outside. The Spurs have the more balanced team being able to hit from the perimeter and take advantage of Duncan's low-post presence.

Spurs to Win Series

The price has bounced around, but I like the Spurs to win the series. Home-court advantage, something they didn't have last season, and a huge revenge motive are obvious factors.

But I also like San Antonio's bench strength more and the Spurs have the top coach in basketball, Gregg Popovich.

Popovich can win the matchup battle because he has a much deeper bench. The Spurs will have the fresher legs because of it. San Antonio is the better rebounding team and can score inside, something the Heat can't match due to their lack of inside scorers.

It's telling that Miami had trouble with Brooklyn and Indiana on the road. The Spurs are more battled tested coming out of the much superior Western Conference.

This has been a perplexing series as far as how lopsided the scores have been. But the pattern has remained the same in regards to home-court. The home team has won every game in the series. The average victory margin is a whooping 20.4 points per game. The closest the visiting team has come is nine points.

I'm not going to buck this trend in Game 6 - or these other strong matchup indicators. The home team in this series is 16-5-1 ATS during the past 22 meetings.

San Antonio has failed to cover during 10 of its last 11 visits to Oklahoma City. The Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their past eight road contests. The Thunder are 13-6-2 ATS in their past 21 home contests.

I'm expecting an all-out intense effort by the Thunder after being embarrassed, 117-89, in Game 5 at San Antonio. I do regard Greg Popovich as the best coach in the NBA. He made a great adjustment opening the floor by putting more perimeter-oriented post players along Tim Duncan in the frontcourt. This move forced defensive whiz and NBA shot block leader Serge Ibaka away from the basket opening the lane for Tony Parker and Co.

Scott Brooks is one of the more underrated coaches in the league and he's been right there with Popovich in this series countering strategy and moves.

Oklahoma City has put up at least 104 points in 10 of its last 12 playoff games. The Thunder have scored 105 and 106 points, respectively, during their last two games. Serge Ibaka provides a dependable third scoring option and gives more spacing allowing Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to operate better.

So to sum up, the Thunder are going to get their points in this pivotal Game 5 matchup. The key to going over the total is San Antonio getting its share of points, something the Spurs haven't done during the past two games averaging 94.5 points during this span.

Ibaka's presence cuts both ways in regards to the total. He's a plus to Oklahoma City's offense but also is a strong physical defender. It's not a coincidence the Spurs have shot below 40 percent during the last two games after shooting at least 50 percent in the first two games in which Ibaka missed.

However, I see the Spurs having a strong offensive game. Not only is it the normal ebbs and flows, zigs and zags of playoff basketball but ace San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich making proper adjustments. The Spurs have gone over in 15 of their last 21 games following a non-spread cover. 

Being back in San Antonio should also provide huge for the Spurs. San Antonio has averaged 113.7 points in its last seven home playoff games. Tony Parker is due to play much better than he did at Oklahoma City. Thanks to Parker's high level, the Spurs have scored 109 or more points in eight of their last 12 playoff games.

The Spurs also are going to make a concentrated effort to get to the free throw line. The Thunder shot 24 more free throws than the Spurs during the past two games, which were played in Oklahoma City. Don't look for many missed free throws either as the Thunder rate second in free throw percentage while the Spurs ranked No. 4.

Sparked by Serge Ibaka's return, the inspired Thunder won Game 3 of this Western Conference finals at home. A lot went right for the Thunder. It was Oklahoma City's game to win and the Thunder took care of business winning, 106-97.

But the reality is the Spurs are the better team with the superior coach and will be more than ready for this Game 4. San Antonio has covered six of the last seven times when playing on one day's rest.

The Spurs  won the first two games of this series by a combined 52 points. Ibaka didn't play in either of those games. Ibaka is back, but he isn't 100 percent dealing with a painful swollen calf.

No coach makes better adjustments and is more dangerous with extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich. The Spurs have the inside/outside game to get their points especially with Tony Parker playing at a high level. It's a gift to get this many points with the better team.

The Pacers have lost two of the first three games in this series. But they've had a grip on every game. They very well could be leading 2-1, or even out in front 3-0.

Indiana has led for the most minutes of the series and now face this crucial Game 4 taking the most points they have all series and with a healthy lineup. These two teams are not that far apart as this point spread indicates.

Indiana took Miami to seven games last season in the playoffs. The Pacers won Game 1 by 11 points at home. They blew a lead in Game 2 and lost by four despite Miami shooting 50.7 percent from the floor.

Then, this past Saturday in Game 3, Indiana lost a 15-point lead and fell by 12 points. Miami shot 54.4 percent from the floor and sank 10 of 18 shots from beyond the arc.

The Heat are the best shooting team in the NBA. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade both are playing at high levels. But the Pacers are being way underrated here. They are No. 1 in defensive efficiency. Indiana might have won Game 2 if Paul George didn't miss 12 of 16 shots from the floor.

The Pacers might have won Game 3 if George, their best player, wasn't limited to less than 33 minutes because of foul trouble. Starting point guard George Hill played only 21 minutes because he also encountered foul trouble. The Pacers were plus 8 in scoring when Hill was on the court in Game 3.

A key for the Heat is scoring in transition off a turnover because they can't rebound with Indiana and lack an inside defender the caliber of Roy Hibbert. The Pacers turned the ball over 19 times in Game 3. This led to 26 Miami points. Indiana averaged 11 turnovers in the first two games of the series when Hill played more than 36 and 39 minutes, respectively. 

The Pacers have had second-half leads in each of the last two games despite Miami averaging better than 52 percent shooting from the floor while they averaged 43 percent from the field.

I see Indiana tightening its defense and making sure to play intense the entire game with George and Hill in far better form and avoiding foul trouble while Miami cools off against the league's top defense. The Pacers have covered five of their last six road games and are 7-2 ATS following a game in which they did not cover the spread.

Indiana's 107-96 Game 1 victory against Miami sailed over the total by 21 points. Now we have a slight adjustment upward on the total by the oddsmaker. But the combined 203 points the Heat and Pacers put up in in the opening game wasn't a fluke.

These teams went above the total during the first four games of their playoff series last season and each team shot better than 51 percent from the floor during this past Sunday's opening game.

Miami shot above 50 percent from the field during the regular season, ranking No. 1. Indiana's defense is not nearly what it was earlier in the season. The Pacers have surrendered triple digits in half of their home playoff games.

The Heat have a nearly unstoppable offense with LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. Miami easily led the conference averaging 109 points per 100 possessions.

The Heat have gone over in eight of their last 10 playoff games. Miami has done this against solid defensive clubs Brooklyn, Charlotte and Indiana. None of those opponents can be classified as up-tempo.

Indiana is much stronger offensively when it can dominate the offensive board like it can against Miami, which is small up front and not especially physical. So I don't think it was a fluke that the Pacers had their highest scoring game of the postseason against Miami outrebounding the Heat by 11.

Most thought the Eastern Conference finals would come down to this: Miami versus Indiana in a rematch of last year's seven-game series.

There is one big difference, though: The Heat are playing far better than Indiana. The Pacers haven't looked good at home for quite a while now. They are 7-18-1 ATS during their past 26 home contests, including going 1-9 ATS against opponents with a winning road record. Indiana has covered only two of its seven home playoff games.

The Heat finished the Nets this past Wednesday. Indiana didn't eliminate Washington until Thursday night.

The two-time defending champion Heat and their stars are playing well winning eight of their nine playoff games. Miami is peaking at just the right time. Indiana peaked during the first couple of months of the season. The Pacers aren't playing nearly as well as they did last season at this time.

In analyzing the matchups, I give Miami the edge at every position, including the bench, except at center. And that's not a given for Indiana with how inconsistent Roy Hibbert has played in the postseason.

Playing at home just puts more pressure on the Pacers.

The Wizards are more talented than perceived, which they have proven by reaching this second-round of the playoffs. However, the young largely untested Wizards face a double whammy in today's game:

They must deal with what is sure to be an all-out intense effort by the rugged Pacers and must prove they can perform well at home, which hasn't been the case this season and in the postseason. I don't believe Washington can do that.

The Pacers were humiliated, 102-79, at home two days ago in Game 5. The Wizards brought their A game and caught the Pacers flat outrebounding them by a monster total of 62-23.

Indiana is a lunch bucket team that had regained its form during Games 3 and 4 winning both of those games at Verizon Center by a combined 25 points. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS following a loss and also have covered during their past four away contests. 

The Wizards have covered only 41 percent of their home games. They have lost straight-up in three of their four postseason games, including both home games in this series. The Wizards are better with the pressure off them. Now, at home, with their series lives on the line the pressure is squarely back on them.

The past six times these teams have met the underdog has covered.

The Trail Blazers staved off elimination by beating San Antonio, 103-92, this past Monday at home. But the Trail Blazers aren't going to be the first NBA team to come back from a 3-0 deficit and win a playoff series. Everybody knows that, including the Trail Blazers. 

The Spurs are going to win this game. The question is by how much? My indications are San Antonio will capture this Game 5 and end the series in blowout fashion. 

It's not just that Portland had failed to cover its past seven games until two nights ago, or that San Antonio has covered 69 percent of its past 16 home games.

San Antonio defeated Portland by 24, 17 and 15 points during the first three games of the series. That's an average win margin of 18.6 points. The Spurs achieved this by playing their best defense of the season not giving Portland many good looks at the basket, while maintaining their top level offense that has both strong inside and outside components. 

The Trail Blazers, never strong defensively to begin with, have been unable to slow down Tony Parker while the Spurs have clamped down on LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Aldridge and Lillard were both shooting under 39 percent from the floor during the first four games of the series. 

So why did things change and go Portland's way in Game 5 with Aldridge and Lillard having their best performances combing to make 19 of 37 field goals? 

Certainly the Spurs didn't tank. But wily San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich did play his reserves far more in Game 4. Tiago Splitter, who had been guarding Aldridge, played the fewest minutes of the series in Game 4 being on the court less than 23 minutes. 

Popovich knows when to pick his spots. He may have sensed that Monday's matchup in Portland was the Trail Blazers' game to win in front of their frenzied fans especially with the Trail Blazers leading at halftime and producing a huge third quarter. So Popovich didn't want to risk fatigue and injuries instead choosing to set up a huge Game 5 series-clinching victory at home tonight. 

The Spurs won't be screwing around here. They have a much harder series on deck meeting either the Thunder or Clippers. This is a veteran team that knows how to close. The Spurs play hard to the final buzzer under Popovich so I don't see Portland being live for a backdoor cover. It's San Antonio in a blowout.

Points are big in this series with three of the four games being a dogfight. The Wizards are in a do-or-die spot and have proven themselves on the road. 

The Wizards are 31-15 ATS on the road this season. That's 67 percent. They have covered in their last eight road contests, including all of their playoff games. Washington also is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. 

The Pacers are playing better, but they still can't be trusted to win by a mid-size margin. Indiana is 4-13 ATS during its past 17 home matchups.

The Wizards blew a 19-point second-half lead in Game 4 at home losing by three. The young Wizards should learn from that defeat that they have to maintain their intensity. 

The Wizards have a stronger bench than Indiana and John Wall isn't nearly as bad as he's looked the past two games. He's missed 10 of 11 3-point shots in the series and committed 12 turnovers during the last two games. He's due to step up. Indiana has to deal with a fatigue factor as four of its five starters went at least 39 points in Sunday's victory. 

OK, the Nets got their victory beating the Heat, 104-90, this past Saturday.

That was Miami's first loss of the playoffs and will arouse them in this Game 4.

The Heat have been playing outstanding defense. One game doesn't change that, if anything it will make Miami more motivated. The Nets aren't going to bury 15 of 25 3-pointers for 60 percent shooting like they did on Saturday.

The Heat have the capability of shifting into higher gear. The Nets need their "A" game to beat Miami. They got that in Game 3. I don't see it happening twice in a row.

The Nets' core is composed of All-Star veterans past their prime while Miami's superstars remain in their prime.

The Nets are averaging 84 points during the first two games of this Eastern Conference playoff series. Note the words Eastern Conference where half-court and defense take precedent far more than in the Western Conference during the postseason.

Miami is playing outstanding defense. The Heat have stepped up defensively during the playoffs going 6-0 while holding their opponents to less than 90 points per game.

The Heat know they are going to get Brooklyn's most intense effort. The Heat are going to counter that with even more defensive pressure. This pivotal Game 3 is going to be decided by tight defense rather than up-tempo offense.

Brooklyn's veteran are all past their offensive prime. Deron Williams actually failed to score a point in Game 2. But these prideful Nets veterans still know how to defend and put out maximum effort in the playoffs, especially in this do-or-die spot for them.

The Thunder are the superior team and I look for them to control the series with a straight-up win here in Game 3. Taking points is a nice bonus.

Oklahoma City evened the series at 1-1 after beating the Clippers more decisively than the 11-point final might indicate in Game 2. The Thunder have a number of key factors going their way.

Yes, the series is tied because Chris Paul might have had the greatest shooting game of his great career in the opener. But the Thunder have shut down Blake Griffin thanks to outstanding defensive work from Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams off the bench. Griffin is shooting just 41 percent from the floor. The Thunder also have stymied DeAndre Jordan courtesy of Kendrick Perkins.

The Clippers can't stop Kevin Durant and have been outrebounded by 32 boards, an average of 16 a game.

The Thunder have covered 14 of the past 20 times against foes with a .600 percentage or better. They know how to get it done on the road, too, beating the Clippers at Staples Center four weeks ago and winning two of three in Memphis during their opening playoff series with the one road defeat occurring in overtime.

Future ownership of their franchise remains a distraction for the Clippers with that topic being magnified with their return home.

San Antonio put up 116 points on Portland in Game 1 despite sixth man Manu Ginobili scoring just two points on 0-for-6 shooting. It's a given the Spurs are going to put up a lot of points on Portland.

The Trail Blazers don't have the defensive players to adjust from having just faced Houston's isolation-heavy defense to the Spurs' high-powered motion offense. Tony Parker is playing tremendous and he's the key with his crisp passing and drives to the basket. The Trail Blazers absolutely couldn't handle him in Game 1. Aside from the normally reliable Ginobili, the Spurs also received good bench getting 50 points from their reserves in Game 1.

The key is how many points Portland can put up. I see the Trail Blazers easily reaching triple digits. The Trail Blazers were caught off guard during the first half of Game 1. But their high-powered offense put up 53 in the second half. The Trail Blazers certainly figure to shoot better than 37.8 percent from the floor and make more than only four 3-pointers, which was their total in Game 1. San Antonio is a  better defensive team than Houston, but the Spurs are not an elite defensive club. Portland is the No. 4 ranked offensive team in the league averaging just under 107 points per game.

These teams have a history of going over as the over has cashed seven of the past 10 times.

Here are three draft props I like taken from Sportsbook.com.

The first is about Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater going in the first round. Last I saw he was a heavy underdog not to go in the first round. My information says Bridgewater WILL GO in the first round possibly as high as No. 8 to the Vikings. He is the most ready of any of the quarterback prospects to play in the NFL right now.

The second prop also is about quarterbacks with an over/under of 3 1/2 on the number being taken in the first round. The over is plus money - and that's the way to go. Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles are all going to be taken in the opening round. The NFL is a quarterback driven league and too many teams need a quarterback and a way to energize their fan base.

The key to winning this prop is Derek Carr. I'm hearing mixed things on Carr that he could go in the top 10, or not be taken until the second round. If he's not taken among the top 25 picks, I could see a team trading up to get him before the end of Round 1. At a nice plus price it's certainly worth the shot.

The third prop is laying around $1.35 on Texas A&M offensive tackle Jake Matthews being taken ahead of Michigan offensive tackle Taylor Lewan. Matthews is higher rated. It wouldn't be a total shock if Matthews was the first offensive linemen drafted ahead of Greg Robinson. Lewan is the consensus No. 3 tackle prospect.

Not only is this a better matchup for Oklahoma City than it had against physical, grind-it-out Memphis, but it's a top-notch situational spot.

The Thunder are back to peak form after blowing out the Grizzlies during the last two games of their first-round series. They are in a much better spot than the Clippers, who are still trying to deal and sort out the Donald Sterling mess along with trying to reach an emotional balance after a huge but draining Game 7 victory just two nights ago at home against feisty rival Golden State.

The Clippers are very talented, but they lack the maturity and polish of the Spurs and Heat to deal with such a short turnaround.

The Thunder are back clicking. That should continue against the Clippers, who are not nearly the defense team Memphis is. Kevin Durant is back on fire averaging 34.5 points on 56 percent shooting from the floor during the last two games. The Clippers lack a Tony Allen-type defender to contain him. 

Oklahoma City is 10-4-2 ATS during its last 16 games at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Thunder also are 19-9-2 ATS when playing on one day's rest.

Chris Paul isn't 100 percent because of a sore hamstring and the Clippers have failed to cover eight of the past 10 times versus above .500 opponents.

Clearly these teams are much closer in talent than perceived. And both of these teams are offensive-minded. There has been at least 212 combined points scored in three of the last four games in this series. 

San Antonio can score either outside or inside if Dallas chooses to concentrate on the Spurs' perimeter game. The Spurs ranked No. 1 in 3-point field goal percentage and No. 2 in field goal percentage while averaging more than 105 points per game during the regular season. 

The key for the Spurs is ball movement. They've been getting much better ball movement during the last two games averaging 22.5 assists during this span after getting only 16 assists in Game 4. 

Dallas is right behind the Spurs ranking third in 3-point percentage and fourth in field goal percentage. The Mavericks averaged just under 105 points during the regular season and are averaging 105.4 points during the last five games in this series. The over has cashed 76 percent of the past 33 times Dallas has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. 

This should be a typical Game 7 very physical with lots of free throws. Dallas is the third-best free throwing shooting team in the NBA at 79.5 percent while the Spurs are right behind them ranking fourth at 78.5 percent. 

During the Dirk Nowitzki era, the Mavericks have been down 3-2 in a playoff series five times. Every time they have lost Game 6. I see history repeating itself. 

Nowitzki is shooting just 41.2 percent from the floor during the series. The Mavericks need better from him. Dallas wouldn't even be in this position if not for a miracle corner jumper at the buzzer by Vince Carter. 

The Spurs are far superior to Dallas. They can beat the Mavericks from the perimeter with their 3-point marksmanship like they did when they swept the four games during the regular season, or pound inside like they have the past two games averaging 49 points in the paint when the Mavericks have tried to key on San Antonio's outside game. 

The Mavericks have been stronger on the road that at home from a point spread perspective. The Spurs have covered 58 percent of their road contests and are 7-3 ATS during their past 10 visits to Dallas. 

Defense is trumping offense so it's no fluke Memphis can close out Oklahoma City at home today. The Grizzlies have held the Thunder below 40 percent shooting during the past four games keeping both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in check.

These games have been close and the Thunder have yet to prove they can beat Memphis' stingy defense. So I'll take these points with a confident home team that has the far superior defense.

The Thunder are just 6-7 in their last 13 games. There is talk about dissension on the Thunder with the players not responding anymore to coach Scott Brooks. Memphis has won 19 of its last 27 games going 8-2 in its last 10 matchups. The Grizzlies are peaking while the Thunder are regressing. 

Oklahoma City isn't getting points in the paint while Memphis' offense has dominated the Thunder inside. Durant certainly is capable of breaking out with a monster game, but Tony Allen is a premier defender. It's a leap of faith to assume the Thunder can suddenly break Memphis' strong defense - which ranked No. 3 during the season and first in defensive rebounding - especially being on the road while not displaying peak form.

The Grizzlies won 65 percent of their home games. The Thunder are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage greater than 60 percent.

Donald Sterling has always been the village idiot when it comes to owning a pro basketball team. He's also looking like a racist moron, please excuse the redundancy. Sterling may very well have sabotaged his team's playoff chances by becoming embroiled in a racial firestorm with his alleged racist comments.

Sterling's Clippers understandably lost their focus in Game 4 and were blown out on the road, 118-97, by the Warriors.

Now the Clippers are back home in LA right in the center of the controversy. Should the LA players wear their warmup suits inside out in continued protest against Sterling? Should they continue to wear black socks and black wristbands? Who will their fans support? Will their fans even show up?

The Clippers shouldn't have to go through this garbage, but they will. Their focus and concentration can't be 100 percent. Clippers coach Doc Rivers had to cancel yesterday's practice because of all the distractions. The Warriors are a very live 'dog with the best long-range shooting backcourt in basketball with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

Golden State has covered seven of its last eight games. The Warriors are the better defensive team and won't have as strong a disadvantage of being the road team as they normally would because of all the anti-Sterling feelings around the league and country.

Note, too, the Clippers have covered only once during the past seven times they've played a foe with a winning record.

Can the Spurs lose three in a row to the inferior Mavericks and fail in what is now their biggest game of the season?

No. Gregg Popovich isn't going to let that happen. The Spurs aren't going to lose three in a row to Dallas after beating them 10 consecutive times.

Of course that' easy to say. But where is the proof?

The proof lies in several areas. The Spurs' bench is much better than it has shown. So is San Antonio's transition defense. It is much better, too, than it has shown.

Probability plays a large part in handicapping. Popovich is the best coach in the NBA. The Spurs beat Dallas in all four regular-season meetings. Yes, I know that was regular season. But this is the same Dallas team that very well should have lost at home in Game 3 this past Saturday if not for Vince Carter's mind-boggling buzzer-beating 3-pointer.

San Antonio's domination of Dallas until these last two games can't be ignored. The Spurs averaged 115 points per 100 possession against the Mavericks in the regular season, which is a tremendous efficiency number. Dallas' defense hasn't changed.

Popovich is the best at motivation and game-planning. San Antonio has covered eight of the last 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Spurs have covered 61 percent of their road contests.

Dallas has been weak at home covering just 43 percent this season, failing to cover in five of its last six home matchups.

The Spurs have won 18 of the last 22 times following a loss. This includes a 9-2 ATS mark on the road for 82 percent. These are the marks of strong coaching, experience and superior talent.

San Antonio had an off performance in Game 2. It happens. Then Carter pulls off a miracle corner jumper at the buzzer to allow Dallas to steal Game 3.

I'm not going to overreact to this. The Spurs are an elite team. Dallas is not.

The combination of the Nets' playoff experience, savvy and home-court will be too much for Toronto. Expect the Nets to be far less sloppy in the end game than they were in Game 3 when they almost let a 15-point lead with 4:11 left escape winning by four.

Since Jan. 1, the Nets are 23-4 at home. Brooklyn has a size advantage in the backcourt and at the wings to go with their huge playoff experience edge. The Raptors are a gutty squad, but their talent can't match Brooklyn's former All-Star collection of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

The Nets are long in the tooth, but are fortunate to be playing on one day's rest where they have covered 20 of the past 27 times in that situation. The Nets also are 10-1-1 ATS the last 12 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.

Brooklyn catches another break in that Toronto point guard Kyle Lowry is dealing with a sore knee and is not 100 percent.

Granted the Hawks are not your normal No. 8 seed. They are peaking at the right time. However, they aren't in the Pacers' class defensively. That's going to tell here.

It's take three games, but I believe Frank Vogel has figured it out for Indiana. He's going to make the right adjustments by getting befuddled  Roy Hibbert out of there and have his team at peak emotional intensity.

The Pacers aren't as good as they showed early in the season, but they are better than what they've shown so far in this series and down the stretch. Now with their season in grave jeopardy, I see a strong performance from them. Vogel has challenged their guts - and I see his players responding.

Atlanta's guards have been playing over its heads. Jeff Teague has never been a model of consistency. On the flip side, Indiana's backcourt has been underperforming. Paul George is much better than he's shown.

There are reasons the oddsmakers opened Indiana a favorite despite its struggles.

LaMarcus Aldridge is a star. But he's been unconscious the first two games scoring 46 and 43 points, respectively, including making 18 of 28 shots from the floor in Game 2. He has made 13 of 18 shots from beyond 10 feet.

This hot shooting can't continue. Houston has too many good defenders, including two of the best in the league in center Dwight Howard and guard Patrick Beverly.

Not surprisingly the first two games of the series have gone Over. However, both matchups were lucky to go Over. They should have been Under. It took overtime to push Game 1 above the total. It looked like Game 2 was going to go under, too, but 17 points were scored during the final 67 seconds in a flurry of free throws.

The Rockets are in must-win territory down 0-2. Expect a huge intense, defensive effort from them. This is what James Harden was quoted as saying, “Game 3 is our season. If we don’t win that one, it will be really hard to get a win in Game 4.”

Harden has been as cold as Aldridge has been hot missing 33 of 47 shots from the floor in the first two games. Harden may not get things turned around either. He's been cold for a while now as he finished the regular season shooting 36.1 percent from the floor during the last five games.

Neither team has any bench scoring so that's a plus, too, for the under.

Aided by the return of Nene, the Wizards have emerged as a serious threat to pull off this first-round series upset. Washington, though, actually has been better on the road than at home.

The Wizards covered 65 percent of their away matchups compared to covering only 42 percent at Verizon Center. The Bulls are above .500 on the road, a well-coached, gutty squad that plays much better defense than Washington.

Chicago ranked No. 1 in fewest points allowed and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. Washington has put up at least 100 points in each of the first two games, although the Bulls held the Wizards to 91 points during regulation in Game 2 before losing 101-99 in overtime. Chicago is 12-2 ATS the following game after allowing 100 points in its previous game.

I am going to take the points with the Bulls in this must-win spot. I do concede the Wizards are better than perceived. They were laying in the weeds. But Chicago is the more playoff-tested foe, is superior defensively and the Wizards have proven disappointing at home.

This has been a road team series with the visitor covering the past six times. Chicago is 6-2 ATS during its last eight trips to Washington. 

Miami owns Charlotte beating the Bobcats 17 consecutive times. The Heat are going to beat the Bobcats again today.  The question is by how many. Indications are it will be by more than 10 points. 

The Bobcats achieved their goal of making the playoffs. Job well done there. But they know they have no shot against the two-time defending champions after losing Game 1 and knowing their best player, big man Al Jefferson, is far from 100 percent. 

Jefferson was hurt during the first quarter of Game 1. He has been diagnosed with a plantar fascia strain in his left foot. Jefferson managed to gut out the rest of the game after receiving not one but two injections. Then he left the arena in a walking boot. It's an injury that has to be taken seriously. The Bobcats have to consider sitting out their franchise player. 

The Heat are looking at the big picture. They don't want to screw around with even one loss in this first-round series. Miami is a veteran team helped by having two days off following Game 1. 

The Bobcats don't have the experience and front line talent to hang with Miami on the road. Charlotte has failed to cover 12 of the past 17 times on the road when taking on a foe with a winning home mark.  

,

Opening games of opening playoff series can be tricky. A perfect example is the Wizards shocking the Bulls, 102-93, in their Game 1 matchup.

The Bulls blew a 13-point lead in losing. Chicago gave up the fewest points in the NBA at 91.8. The Bulls were No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. They are 12-1 ATS after allowing 100 points during their previous game. That 92 percent mark isn't a fluke. Tom Thibodeau is a defensive guru.

The Bulls held John Wall and Bradley Beal in check. They had problems with Washington's frontcourt. Thibodeau has a history of making the right adjustments - and he'll make them here.

I see the Bulls being far more intense and alert for this matchup, which has become crucial for them. Since 2000, teams that have lost the opening game at home in opening playoff series are 19-7 ATS in Game 2.

The Wizards last made the playoffs in 2008. They lack the maturity and experience to handle the success of Game 1. The Bulls will have the Eye of the Tiger and handily win this Game 2.

Now that the line is up to 5 I'm going to get involved with the Nets.

I'm not convinced Toronto is better than New Jersey despite winning the Atlantic Division. Certainly the Nets have far more playoff experience. They also have a size edge at the wings and in the backcourt.

Toronto is playing tight. The Raptors' inexperience works against them here.

These teams have met five times this season and three of the matchups have been decided by four or fewer points. The Nets' seven-point victory in Game 1 was the second-biggest margin of victory in the series.

That game was played early on Saturday giving the Nets much needed rest.

Maybe it was getting overconfident after jumping out to a 12-1 lead. Maybe it was being over amped. Blake Griffin's foul problems certainly didn't help. I think all of these factors contributed to the Clippers not playing well during their Game 1 upset home loss to the Warriors, 109-105, two days ago.

I expect the Clippers to produce their "A" game today and blow out the Warriors.

The Clippers were outshot from the floor, outrebounded and made only 65 percent of their free throws in Game 1. The Clippers are a better shooting team than Golden State ranking third in field goal percentage. They are a stronger rebounding team with Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, especially with the Warriors minus injured center Andrew Bogut. The Clippers also shoot 73 percent from the foul line.

So there should be improvements in all these areas for the Clippers, not to mention a huge focus and intensity level. The prospect of being down 0-2 and going to Golden State certainly has to make the Clippers serious about this game. The home team has covered 72 percent of the time in Game 2 when losing at home in Game 1 of its opening playoff series since 2000.

Houston ranked second in scoring while Portland was fourth. So it's easy to think of these two teams as high-scoring teams. They certainly were - during the regular season.

Things are much different now in the playoffs. Center Dwight Howard and point guard Patrick Beverly are healthy. Howard is one of the top defensive big men in basketball while Beverly is a lockdown defender, who can slow down Damian Lillard. Lillard operates best in space in an up-tempo style. But this is half-court playoff style and Beverly is a tenacious defender.

Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge are the keys to Portland's offense. Aldridge hasn't been the same scoring machine, though, since returning from a back injury. 

Portland has been playing better defense allowing an average of 97.2 points in regulation during its last 12 games. Howard is a notorious poor free throw shooter and his offensive game is rusty having missed most of the games this month.

Toronto is in the playoffs for the first time in six seasons. Toronto players have a combined 24 playoff games of experience. Contrast with the veteran Nets of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce and Co., which have a combined 399 postseason matchups.

That difference could prove pivotal in Game 1. The Nets have covered the past nine times when playing an opponent with a winning mark.

The teams split their four games during the season with all but one of the contests decided by four or fewer points. So taking points with the more experienced team makes sense.