Writeup available shortly.

The Pacers are one of those bad road/good home teams. They are 25-10 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and 11-25 on the road. Denver is 13-20 away from Pepsi Center and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times facing a foe with a winning home mark.  Indiana has won four in a row at home, winning those games by an average of 12.3 points. Paul George is back playing at his All-Star level. He's averaging nearly 27 points this month. Not only are both teams involved in playoff runs, but the Pacers have an added revenge motive for an embarrassing 140-112 road loss to Denver on Jan. 12.  Denver is a bit fat and happy after upsetting the defending champion Cavaliers by 13 points at home this past Wednesday. They are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times following a victory. 

Stephen Nover Free Friday Play

Hawks plus 5 1/2 at Bucks

New Orleans went 2-6 during its first eight games with DeMarcus Cousins. But now Cousins and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are far more in sync. The result has been four wins in their last five games for the Pelicans. The Pelicans are playing at a faster pace now, too. That's helped them average 117.6 points during their last five games of which four have gone over. The Grizzlies are getting career seasons from Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. They are firing more 3-points than ever before. Memphis has reached triple digits in eight of its last 11 games. New Orleans is a below average defensive team. So I see this total as being set too low. 

Denver doesn't have the defense to slow down the Rockets. Houston beat Denver, 128-110, the past time it played at Pepsi Center this past December. 

Off an embarrassing loss and with every game crucial in their bid to make the playoffs, I believe the Trail Blazers give the Spurs a close game here.  San Anotnio is playing well. But the Spurs continually are overpriced. They are 1-6 ATS following a victory. Portland trails Denver by 2 1/2 games for the last playoff spot in the West. The Trail Blazers were held to a season-low 77 points in a 23-point road loss to New Orleans last night.  The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS the past four times when playing without rest. They are still 5-2 in their last seven games despite that humilitating defeat. I see the Trail Blazers bouncing back to play a strong game.  Gregg Popovich doesn't care about winning by margins. He just wants to win and move on. The Spurs also have a tendency to play to the level of competion. During their last seven victories they've beaten the Pacers by one as 10-point favorites, the Pelicans by three in overtime as 6 1/2-point chalk, the Timberwolves by seven in overtime as 7 1/2-point favorites, the Rockets by 12, the Kings by 10 as 11 1/2-point favorites after falling behind by 28 points, the Warriors by 22 and the Hawks by eight as seven-point favorites despite committing 21 turnovers. All of these games were at home except the Pelicans matchup. So you get the pattern of the Spurs playing to the level of competition. Minus the Rockets and Warriors - the two opponents the Spurs got excited about - San Antonio went 1-4 ATS with the lone cover coming by one point against Atlanta.

This total is too high considering how inept these offenses are. Orlando ranks second-to-last in scoring averaging less than 100 points a game. The Magic rank among the bottom four teams in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. 

 The Magic beat Sacramento, 102-94, when the teams previously met back in November. The Kings had DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay back then while Orlando had Serge Ibaka. Those three players all had good scoring games in that first meeting. None of them will be playing here. Orlando is trying to rely on unreliable Terrence Ross. He's shooting 38.3 percent from the floor in nine games since joining the Magic from the Raptors in a trade involving Ibaka. Ross is a decent defender, though, so he's a plus for the under. Ross is going to see big minutes because the Magic are committed to finding out if he can be a legitimate starter for next season.  Sacramento virtually has no weapons minus Cousins and Gay. The Kings have lost eight of nine since giving Cousins away to the Pelicans. Sacramento is lost offensively. Darren Collison and Willie Cauley-Stein have failed to step up as hoped. The under has cashed in nine of Sacramento's last 12 games.  In their last eight games, the Kings have scored 85 points against the Hornets. Charlotte allows 104.3 points per game. Sacramento put up 88 points on the Timberwolves, who give up an average of 104.8 points. Sacramento could only manage 100 points versus the Nets, who have the worst defense in the NBA surrendering 114.1 points. The Kings played the Nuggets twice during this span. Denver yields 110.9 points a game. Yet the Kings could manage just 92 and 96 points against the Nuggets.  I do see the Kings playing hard here trying to stop an eight-game losing streak. But that intensity will be on the defensive end. The Magic have a rare victory opportunity, too, but I see that translating more into a defensive battle. 
 

The record shows the Spurs have won eight in a row. But San Antonio has just been getting by and has much bigger games on deck than this one. In their last four games, the Spurs have defeated the Pacers by one point at home, defeated the Timberwolves at home in overtime, edged the Pelicans in overtime on the road and slipped past the Rockets by two at home. The Spurs covered none of these games.  The Kings are in stop-the-pain mode losers of five in a row. Sacramento is capable of providing a scare. The Kings no longer have DeMarcus Cousins, their best player. But the trade-off is extra line value. Just two games ago, the Kings lost by only one point in overtime to the Jazz.  The Kings have covered in five of their last six visits to San Antonio.  The Spurs just got done holding off the Rockets in a marquee matchup two days ago. They are at the Thunder on Thursday. Oklahoma City is extremely tough at home. Following that matchup, the Spurs return home to host Golden State on Saturday in what shapes up as the biggest game of the season. So this is a prime letdown and look ahead spot for San Antonio. It wouldn't be surprising if Gregg Popovich rested some of his starters, or at least drastically reduced their minutes in this game. Note, too, the Spurs are 1-5 ATS the past six times they've hosted a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

Note that word just has come out that Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge will be rested and won't play. The line has come down because of that information. I still like the Kings at plus 11 1/2 and higher. 

Thunder coach Billy Donovan is really stressing defense in this game, the Thunder's first game back from an 0-3 road trip. Oklahoma City lost all three games by playing poor defense.  Look for the Thunder to step up defensively now that they're back at home where they've held their past three opponents to an average of 103 points. Oklahoma City upgraded its backcourt defense by recently signing veteran Norris Cole. He could see more minutes than usual because of Portland's high-scoring backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.   Oklahoma City hosted Portland on Feb. 5 and won, 105-99.  The teams last played against each other this past Thursday in Portland. The Trail Blazers won, 114-109. That total opened a tick lower at 221. Portland shot nearly 50 percent from the floor in that game and the teams combined to shoot 68 free throws making 81.3 percent from the line.  Now the total opened higher and it's doubtful the teams will shoot that many free throws again. There were 49 free throws attempted during the Feb. 5 game. That 81.3 percent free throw percentage is high, too. Portland shoots 77.9 percent from the free throw line on the season while the Thunder are a bottom-six free throw shooting club at 74.8 percent. 

Charlotte has been playing better since coming out of the All-Star break. The Hornets have played their first six games on the road following the All-Star Game. They went 3-3, but could have gone 5-1 losing two of the games in overtime.  Now the Hornets are home for the first time in three weeks, out of a playoff spot by three games. The Hornets trail the sixth-place Pacers by five games making this matchup crucial for them.  Charlotte isn't going to lack for motivation and the Hornets catch the Pacers without rest and in a letdown spot. Indiana came from six down with 1:43 left to nip Atlanta, 97-96, on Sunday. The Pacers pulled the road victory out on a 3-pointer by Glenn Robinson III with 0.6 seconds left.  This marks the Pacers' fifth consecutive road game, too. Paul George is the best player on the court, but the Hornets have the next two best players in Kemba Walker and Nicholas Batum. The Hornets also have a defensive stopper to slow down George in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. 

Monday Free Play

Rockets plus 4 at Spurs

The over has cashed the past four times these teams have met. Look for that trend to continue.

The Bucks rank No. 2 in the NBA in field goal percentage. The 76ers' defense has taken a hit with Joel Embiid out for the season and Nerlens Noel traded. Philadelphia has allowed an average of 117.3 points during its last six games while allowing foes to shoot 49 percent from the field.

Milwaukee isn't a great defensive team, but the Bucks do like to play up-tempo. That combination has resulted in the Bucks going over the total 58 percent of the time this season.

The two teams just met on Feb. 13 and 216 points were scored with San Antonio winning, 110-106. The Spurs played that game without rest and in action for the fourth time in six days. Now they're home and haven't played since Sunday. The Spurs are averaging 105.2 points in their last four games. The Pacers have a bottom 10 defense.

The Pacers have an above average offense. They've gone over the total 10 of the last 14 times when playing on the road against a foe with a winning home mark. The over has cashed in 12 of San Antonio's last 17 home contests. 

The figure is 29 out of the last 30. That's how many times Boston has reached triple digits during its last 30 games. The Celtics have scored a minimum of 107 points in 13 of their last 14 games and are averaging 114.7 points during their past four games. The over is 9-2-1 in Boston's last 12 road games.  So I see the Celtics during their part to get this total to go over.  But how about the Bulls?  Well, their defense had been atrocious up until their last game, a 105-94 home win versus Toronto two days ago. The Bulls had surrendered 100 or more points in nine consecutive games until beating the Raptors, allowing their previous four opponents before Toronto to shoot at least 50 percent from the field.  The key to making this over work is Chicago's offense, which ranks 27th in field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting. The over buy sign is there on the Bulls, though, following that Raptors victory. The Bulls played at a faster than usual pace for them resulting in 20 fast-break points. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg was quite pleased with the up-tempo style particularly how effective it was for bench players Doug McDermott, Cristiano Felicio and Denzel Valentine.  So expect the Bulls to play quick again especially trying to take advantage of Boston having to play without rest. This is the last game before the All-Star break, too, so both teams should be holding nothing back. Jimmy Butler is back for Chicago and is slated to play without any minutes restrictions. Dwayne Wade has been ruled out, but Nikola Mirotic is expected to play after missing the last two games. 

I have to ride the Celtics and over here. Boston has scored at least 106 points in 13 of its last 14 games. The Celtics have put up 112 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in nine of Boston's last 11 road games.

The key here is Dallas has upped its scoring hitting triple digits in seven of its last eight games. In their last three games, the Mavericks have scored 113, 112 and 112 points. 

Every NBA team is going to encounter a flat spot during the course of such a long season. It happened to the Celtics last night. They lost to the Kings, 108-92, despite Sacramento not having suspended DeMarcus Cousins. The Celtics committed 18 turnovers, shot 39.7 percent from the floor and only had four fast-break points.  Prior to that game, though, Boston had won seven straight games. The Celtics had reached triple-digits in 25 consecutive games.  I see Boston bouncing back strong in this matchup. Fatigue shouldn't factor since Boston last played on Sunday before losing to the Kings. The Celtics also have won five consecutive times when playing without rest, covering four of the five. The Celtics should be use to West Coast time now.  If they need extra motivation, the Celtics can point to Jan. 21. The Trail Blazers defeated the Celtics, 127-123 in overtime, on that date in Boston despite finishing their own four-game, six-day road trip back then.  The Trail Blazers are off a last-second one-point road victory against the Mavericks two days ago. That was a costly victory for Portland as it lost swingman and key reserve Evan Turner to a broken hand. The Trail Blazers don't have a strong bench, nor good big men to take advantage of Boston's rebounding weakness. Portland is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory.  The Celtics have covered 70 percent of their last 18 road contests. 

Given the current form of these two teams, the total is too low. The Jazz are averaging 114 ponts during their last four games. They are off their two highest scoring games of the season. 

Dallas is averaging 106 points during its last three games. 

The over has cashed in 15 of the last 21 meetings played in Dallas between the two teams. 

The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage. 

The Timberwolves can score. They've reached at 103 points in eight of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in each of Minnesota's past five games. 

The Warriors are averaging 125 points during their last five games. Stephen Curry has been on fire and Draymond Green has been cleared to play. The Kings rank among the bottom 10 in defense.

The Kings have scored at least 109 points in five of their last seven games. The Warriors are going to get their points, but DeMarcus Cousins is a bad matchup inside for Golden State and the Kings have also been getting point guard production.

The Bucks are averaging just 92 points during regulation in their last three games. Some of their young stars are showing signs of hitting the wall nearing All-Star break.  The Nuggets are forced to be more defensive conscious. Leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is out with a groin injury. Denver loses much of its free throw percentage with Gallinari out. Gallinari shoots 88.7 percent from the foul line. Nikola Jokic has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain. He's expected to play here, but be on a minutes restriction. Swingman and sparkplug Will Barton has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. He's expected to play, too, but probably isn't going to be 100 percent. Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is back for Denver, but he's one of the worst shooting guards in the NBA.  

The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak.  Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul.  The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points.  The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them.  Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks  When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that.  Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks.  New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating.  It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January.  This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's.  The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards.   The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times.     

Frank Vogel still hasn't been able to turn around Orlando's bad defense. The Magic have surrendered at least 113 points in six of their last eight games.

Minnesota can take advantage averaging 112.3 in its last six games. The Timberwolves have a pair of legitimate stars in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. 

The over has cashed in Orlando's past six road contests. 

The Spurs have been a strong over team going above the total in 13 of their last 16 games.

First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto.  Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. 

I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland.  The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings.  So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons.  The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. 

This is a rare day game. It's especially different for Golden State starting at 9:05 in the morning West Coast time. That's a plus for the under.

Minus Blake Griffin, the Clippers now are without Chris Paul. This will be their first game since losing Paul to a thumb injury on Monday. The Clippers haven't played since. I see them being well-prepared here having had two full days to game plan knowing Paul won't be available. Often times teams play well in their first game after losing a star player. The Clippers have a deep backcourt with J.J. Redick, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford and Raymond Felton. Rivers is having the best season of his career and Redick is averaging nearly 20 points during the last seven games.  LA is playing well having won seven in a row going 6-1 ATS. The opponent is the 14-28 Timberwolves, who are playing in their third consecutive road game. Minnesota is 5-15 SU, 8-12 ATS on the road this season.  The Clippers have held their last five opponents to less than 99 points a game. DeAndre Jordan gives LA a needed defensive presence to combat Karl-Anthony Towns. Jordan is No. 2 in rebounding in the league and ranks eighth in blocked shots.  

I understand the risk of trying to make an under work against the Houston Rockets of Mike D'Antoni. Only Golden State averages more points than the Rockets' 114.9. Houston launches 3-pointers like no other team and they don't wait to do it either. The flip side, however, is the Heat. They are averaging the second-fewest points in the league at 98.3.  So we have a real contrast in tempo and style here. The situation, though, favors the Heat and a lower-scoring game than what the oddsmaker perceives.  Miami just completed a six-game road trip that concluded on Friday. This is the Heat's first game since then. So they are going to have lots of energy. The Heat use that energy to play defense especially at home where they have scored fewer than 99 points in five of their past six games at American Airlines Arena. This opinion is further enforced with the under cashing in seven of Miami's last nine home games following a road trip of seven of more days.  Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is defensive-minded and no dummy. He knows his talent can't matchup athletically to the Rockets especially with promising youngsters Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson out. So the Heat are going to look inside to Hassan Whiteside and try to methodically pound inside against the Rockets while trying to take off as much clock as possible thus shortening the game.  The Rockets are in flat spot. They just blew out the hapless Nets by scoring 137 points two days ago. The Rockets immediately fly back to Houston following this game for a home game against the Bucks on Wednesday. The Rockets then have a marquee home matchup against Golden State on Friday. So don't look for the Rockets to be going all out here, or extending any minutes to their starters. They also could be getting center Clint Capela back. He's been out since Dec. 17 with a broken bone in his leg. The Rockets would try to get Capela involved if he plays against this weak opponent and he figures to be rusty.  Based on this situation, too, there's the possibility superstar James Harden could see fewer than normal minutes. That would be a bonus for the under.