Line value, situation, better defensive team and a huge coaching edge. Those are the four main factors that put me on Miami for this Game 1 Eastern Conference Finals series.

I'm surprised the line is this high. Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are not Doc Rivers and choke artists James Harden and Joel Embiid.

The Heat know how to play defense - No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game - and they are rested. Miami hasn't played since Wednesday. The Celtics still could be celebrating their dismantling of the 76ers this past Sunday.

Miami is extremely dangerous with time to prepare. The Heat upset the Bucks on the road in Game 1 of their first-round series. Miami repeated in Game 1 of its second round series upsetting the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.

The Heat are 39-17 (70 percent) ATS when playing on three or more days rest. They also have covered 13 of the past 18 times against the Celtics.

Spoelstra could be the best coach in the NBA. He rates a huge edge on Boston's inexperienced Joe Mazzulla.

So we've reached Game 7 in this 76ers-Celtics series. That means plenty of defensive intensity, right?

Yes ... but the oddsmaker has wildly overcompensated for that. The total for the first six games ranged from 211 to 215 1/2. Now it's down more than 10 from that norm. It's too much. The 76ers haven't had a total nearly this low all season. Neither has Boston.

Jayson Tatum is going to shoot better than the 5-for-21 from the field he did in Game 6 and Joel Embiid is going to get more shots than the 19 he had in Game 6, hardly touching the ball during the final four minutes. The 76ers will rectify that.

The 76ers averaged 117 points in their two road victories against Boston. If anything was reinforced to the 76ers in their 95-86 home loss to the Celtics in Game 6 it's that they must push pace in order to create open shots and better looks.

I believe the 76ers have picked up on that. The Over is 4-0 the past four times following a Philadelphia ATS loss. As for the Celtics, the Over has cashed in eight of their last 10 games.

Both teams are excellent from the foul line and from 3-point range.

The 76ers were No. 1 in free throw shooting accuracy during the regular season. Boston ranked fourth in free throw percentage.

The Celtics also were sixth in 3-point shooting percentage. The 76ers were No. 1 in 3-point accuracy.

There isn't going to be a lot of substituting here. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Embiid and James Harden are going to be firing. I trust them to get Over this extremely low total.

Sure the Knicks could upset the Heat in Miami. But it would take a repeat of their Game 5 performance this past Wednesday when their Big Three of Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett combined to score 88 points on 27 of 52 shooting from the floor for 52 percent, while sinking 11 3-pointers.

And, realistically, I don't see the Knicks duplicating that feat. Not in Miami where the Heat have dominated in the postseason. Miami is 4-0 SU and ATS at Kaseya Center in the playoffs. This includes two victories against the Bucks by a combined 27 points and two wins against the Knicks by a combined 27 points never trailing except for 24 seconds.

It's not a fluke either. The Heat have established they are the superior team.

The Knicks gained some self-respect and redemption with their 112-103 Game 5 victory. But that's as far as they go. The Heat have covered seven of the last 10 times they've hosted the Knicks.

The NBA playoffs often are decided by three things - superstars, coaching and defense. The 76ers have the edge on Boston in all three of these categories. That's why they are going to end this series with a home victory today. Getting points with Philadelphia is just a bonus. 

Let's start with star power. The 76ers have a pair of superstars, Joel Embiid and James Harden. Tyrese Maxey is stepping up and Tobias Harris can be counted on. Boston has one superstar, Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown certainly is good, but he falls short of being a superstar. The Celtics don't have a reliable third wheel who can produce points the way Maxey and Harris can. 

Now, let's talk coaching. Doc Rivers is a proven winner. The Celtics know that better than any team. Maybe Rivers is more of a player's coach than a master strategist. But pitted against rookie coach Joe Mazzulla, Rivers is Red Auerbach, Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich rolled into one. 
The 76ers' coaching edge isn't tiny, but huge. 

From 2004 through the end of last season, the Celtics had strong coaching with Rivers, Brad Stevens and Ime Udoka. The Celtics, however, made the decision to suspend Udoka for this season for what they labeled ''violations of team policies.'' 

Udoka's chief assistant was 34-year-old whiz kid Will Hardy. Unfortunately for Boston, Danny Ainge poached Hardy for Utah. So the Celtics named Mazzulla, a lesser assistant coach, as their interim coach even though he had no NBA head coaching experience. 

When the Celtics got off to a hot start, the team removed the interim label making Mazzulla permanent head coach. Boston may want to rethink that move. Playoff coaching is different then regular season coaching. Miami's Erik Spoelstra is a master in that difference. Milwaukee's Mike Budenholzer wasn't. Mazzulla isn't either. This is a fatal weakness. The Bucks knew it. That's why they fired Budenholzer even though he had the best regular-season winning percentage of any Bucks coach in Milwaukee history.

It's not just Mazzulla's highly noticeable deficiency in failing to take timeouts at the proper time. Mazzulla hasn't proven adept at developing the right rotation, nor in making  adjustments. Udoka, aided by Hardy, were able to mitigate the Celtics' offensive inconsistencies, by stepping up defensively. The Celtics have yet to show that ability under Mazzulla.

Boston gave up an average of 122.5 points in its last four games to the Hawks during its first-round series. I have no faith in Mazzulla that he can lead the Celtics to a road victory against the 76ers with the season on the line after losing Game 5 at home by 12 points. 

The strain of playing for the fifth time in nine days during this marquee playoff series, should result in an Under here. These are teams whose key players are older. So I'm expecting a slow pace with both the Lakers and Warriors playing at peak defensive efficiency and intensity.

The Under is 4-1 the past five times the Lakers have played on one day's rest. The Under has cashed five of the last seven times the Warriors have played on one day's rest.

The Lakers have held the Warriors to an average of 99 points during the last two games. There were just 205 points scored in the Lakers' 104-101 Game 4 victory two days ago.

If the Warriors were to build a big lead - which could happen judging by the point spread - the Lakers might concede early in order to rest LeBron James and Anthony Davis knowing they would have two more games to close out Golden State.

Lost in the glare of the 76ers' dramatic 116-115 home overtime victory against the Celtics this past Sunday was this game had the slowest tempo of any game in the NBA playoffs this season. There were 214 points scored in regulation because of excellent shooting, especially from James Harden, who made 16 of 23 (69.5 percent) shots from the field. Harden shot 44.1 percent from the floor during the regular season. He was 5-for-28 shooting from the field in his two previous games.

Now the series is tied at 2-2 with the teams heading back to Boston for Tuesday's Game 5. Anticipate a maximum defensive intensity game between a pair of teams that ranked in the top-five in defensive scoring and 3-point defense during the regular season.

I'm expecting a crackdown, too, on offensive players getting away with obvious push-off fouls that weren't called in Game 4 with Jayson Tatum's 3-pointer with 38 seconds left in overtime being the most obvious example.

Because I don't trust the Warriors on the road.

Golden State has lost 33 of its 46 road games this season. If you go back to the end of last season, the Warriors are 17-37-1 ATS (31 percent) ATS in their last 55 away contests. They also have failed to cover during their last four road games against the Lakers.

LA destroyed the Warriors, 127-97, at home in Saturday's Game 3. That pushed LA's postseason home record to 5-0. All of the victories have been by six or more points.

The Lakers have peaked at the right time going 16-5 since March 17. I trust their defense more than the Warriors when Golden State is on the road. LeBron James and Anthony Davis received extra rest from Saturday's blowout victory.

Discount their two play-in games and this will be the first time in eight playoff games the Heat are favored. Justified? Yes. They are home and I fully expect Jimmy Butler to play having had five days to deal with his sprained ankle.

But this doesn't mean Miami is the right side.

The Knicks are 38-16-1(70 percent) in their last 55 road games. Julius Randle showed he was past his ankle injury by scoring 25 points, pulling down 12 rebounds and dishing off eight assists in the Knicks' 111-105 Game 2 win this past Tuesday. Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson are playing at high levels, too, for the Knicks. Josh Hart has been a key role player for New York also.

Butler was superman in leading Miami to a stunning upset of Milwaukee in the Heat's first round matchup. Butler, however, may not be as effective because of his sore ankle. Remember, too, the Heat are without their third-leading scorer and most accurate 3-point shooter with Tyler Herro out.

The Heat fluctuated from being 6-to-10 point road underdogs to the Knicks in Game 2. Now they're currently four-point favorites. So I see plenty of line value to the Knicks. Miami is 11-28-1 ATS (29 percent) in their last 40 games following a point spread cover.

It's a given the Suns are going to win Game 3 of their series against the Nuggets, right? After all, Phoenix is down 0-2 and in must-win mode coming home. The Suns are 30-14 at home. The Nuggets are 20-23 on the road.

But on closer inspection, I can't get behind the Suns. There are too many red flags. There's also a hefty point spread tax for backing Phoenix here.

You have to go back to Nov. 11 against the Celtics in Boston to find the last time the Nuggets were this big of underdogs when Nikola Jokic was in the lineup.

Denver beat Phoenix by an average of 14 points in sweeping the first two games of the series in Denver. That's with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant - the Suns' two superstars - having strong performances. Booker is averaging 31 points and seven assists in the series with Durant averaging 26.5 points and 11 rebounds. So it's hard to ask those two to do more than they already are giving.

The Nuggets have two superstars of their own. Jokic has been the best player in the NBA for the past three seasons. He rates a huge edge on Deandre Ayton. Jamal Murray had been as hot as any player until shooting just 3-of-15 from the floor in Game 2. Yet the Nuggets still won that game by 10 points.

Denver has outrebounded the Suns by 13 in the series and has displayed a much stronger rotation and bench. Even with Booker and Durant playing up to par, the Suns have averaged just 97 points in the series.

Now the Suns are not only being asked to cover what I consider an excessive point spread, but do it without point guard Chris Paul. He's out with a groin injury putting Cameron Payne in the spotlight. Payne plays faster than Paul, but he's not nearly as talented, nor does he have big-game, big-minute experience on his resume.

Paul was injured in Monday's Game 2 loss. Payne came in and scored just two points in 17 minutes going 1-for-7 from the floor. Worse, the Suns were minus-16 when he was on the court. That translates to minus-32 if Payne's minutes are doubled from 17 to 34.

Maybe Payne will step up. But I'd rather take the points and go-against him. All the pressure here is on the Suns. Let's see how they hold up. I don't see it going well for them.

We saw it Wednesday night with the Celtics. We'll see it tonight with the Warriors. NBA teams down 0-1 in a series at home in Game 2 don't lose and they cover the spread. The record speaks for itself - 20-1 SU, 19-2 ATS since 2018 in that role.

The Lakers caught the Warriors coming off a Game 7 road win against Sacramento when they defeated Golden State, 117-112, this past Tuesday. The Warriors had beaten the Kings just two days before Game 1.

Golden State will be fully ready and prepared now for Game 2. The Warriors shot just six free throws in that Game 1 loss. The Lakers went to the line 29 times making 25. Even with that unstainable disparity, the Warriors had a chance to tie the game with less than 10 seconds left if Jordan Poole could have made an open 3-point shot.

The Lakers paid a price to win Game 1. They played fragile Anthony Davis for 44 minutes.

LA also upset the Grizzlies on the road in Game 1 of its previous series. The Lakers then went on to lose Game 2 in Memphis by 10 points.

The Warriors have played far better at home this season than on the road. Their home point spread record is an amazing: 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 home games for 68 percent.

The Celtics were 10 1/2-point home favorites in Monday's Game 1. They lost to the 76ers straight-up. Boston opened double-digit favorites again for today's Game 2.

Maybe the Celtics even the series. But I won't turn down double-digit points with the 76ers to find out.

Boston lost Game 1 despite shooting 58.7 percent from the field, taking advantage of no Joel Embiid - who isn't likely to play here either - to outscore the 76ers, 66-42, in the paint and committed just 10 fouls. Yet lost.

The Celtics can talk about increasing their defensive intensity. The reality is, though, the Celtics were overconfident hosting the 76ers when Philly didn't have league MVP Embiid. Maybe Boston won't be overconfident anymore. The Celtics, however, can't be trusted to suddenly play better defense. Not when they've given up an average of 121.8 points during their last five games.

I don't expect James Harden to shoot 17-of-30 from the field like he did in Game 1. But Harden has his confidence up and he's backed by some underrated 76er scorers who were held back during the regular season by Embiid's dominance. This list includes Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and Paul Reed.

The 76ers are 12-5 without Embiid this season. Even more impressive is they are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 away games minus Embiid. Philadelphia also is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games.

(Update: Since I released this play last night, the line has come down with word coming that Embiid may indeed play. I like the 76ers getting more than 6 1/2 points with or without Embiid. So the handicap holds.)

I thought the Warriors might be invincible at home. They aren't. During their last two home games, the Lakers lost, 118-99, to the Kings last Friday and just nipped the Kings, 126-125, on April 23.

The Lakers, unlike the Kings, have superstars with playoff experience. LA also is the more rested team having eliminated the Grizzlies in a 40-point blowout this past Friday.

Golden State, on the other hand, is rushed back on the court after beating the Kings in Game 7 of its series just two days ago. The Warriors are 2-7 ATS following a victory.

The Lakers received excellent contributions from a number of their rotation players stepping up, including Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings against the Warriors, who they beat three of four times during the regular season.

Here's the thing about the Nuggets. They were outshot by the Suns, 51.2 percent to 47.5 percent, and outscored in the paint, 60-48, by the Suns during Saturday's Game 1. Kevin Durant had a big game scoring 29 points, hitting 12 of 19 shots from the field, while Nikola Jokic made just 9-of-21 shots from the field.

Yet the Nuggets won Game 1 - and won it by 18 points, 125-107.

Denver is just so tough at home being 38-7 and is peaking. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are healthy. Guards Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown and Christian Braun know how to effectively defend Chris Paul, who got a pass in the Suns' first-round series victory against the Clippers with LA minus Paul George and then Kawhi Leonard the last couple of games. George and Leonard not only are great scorers, but excellent defenders.

The Suns had seven more turnovers than the Nuggets in Game 1 and pulled down 11 fewer rebounds.

Then there's Jamal Murray. He's the hottest player in the playoffs during the past two games, averaging 39 points while making 25-of-47 shots from the field and sinking 11-of-20 shots from 3-point range.

The Nuggets have won and covered four in a row against the Suns, including all three games played in Denver. Phoenix is 3-7 in its last 10 road games.

There were just 217 points scored in the Kings' 118-99 Game 6 road win against the Warriors Friday. Sacramento's upset victory has set up today's Game 7. It's not difficult to imagine both teams playing their most intense defense and tempo being slower than perceived with this being the team's third game in five days. Certainly these teams know each other extremely well by now.

The Under has covered 62 percent of the time during the past 63 Game 7's.

The Warriors-Kings haven't scored more than 220 points during three of their last five games in the series.

Rust, a feeling-out-process and two outstanding defensive teams with defensive gurus as their coaches. Those are among the reasons why I like this Game 1 of the Heat-Knicks series to go Under.

The Heat stunned the Bucks in a high-scoring series. The Knicks were the opposite. They disposed of the higher seeded Cavaliers in five games in their series with all five games going Under.

Both teams last played this past Wednesday. So they've had three full days to rest and game plan. Miami's Erik Spoelstra and New York's Tom Thibodeau are elite defensive coaches.

The Heat are without Tyler Herro, their third-leading scorer and most accurate 3-point shooter. The Knicks ranked No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. They held the Cavaliers to an average of 89 points during the last three games of their series.

The Knicks' leading scorer, Julius Randle, is hobbled by a sprained ankle. He averaged 14.4 points in the Cavaliers series, down from his 25.1 points he averaged during the regular season. Miami surrendered the second-fewest points in the league during the regular season.

The teams last played a month ago. There were 193 points scored in that game.

Great season by the Kings, but it's closeout time now for the Warriors. The defending world champions have won the past three games in the series. They need to win this one at home knowing a loss forces them to go back to Sacramento for Game 7.

The Warriors are 12-32 on the road and 35-8 at home, including 2-0 against the Kings during this series. Needless to say, they play far better at home. Their 40-17-1 (70 percent) ATS record in their last 58 home games is proof of that.

But this huge home/road split didn't stop the Warriors from inflicting a huge defeat on the Kings in Game 5 at Sacramento, 123-116, this past Wednesday.

That loss has to be demoralizing for the upstart Kings and a huge reinforced confidence boost for the Warriors.

Golden State has all hands on deck now with Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II aiding superstar Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. The Kings don't have the defense to keep the Warriors in check ranking 25th in scoring defense and 29th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Kings need to keep pace offensively with the Warriors to stay in the game. That's even more difficult for them now with their star guard De'Aaron Fox hampered by a broken finger. The injury affected his shooting as Fox was just 9-of-25 from the floor in Game 5 in his first game dealing with the injury.

This series has been much higher scoring than expected. The Over has cashed in each of the first four games.

The Heat have the top-seeded Bucks on the verge of elimination up 3-1 in the series. Jimmy Butler is averaging 36.5 points in the series and the Heat have made 60-of-126 3-point shots for a 47.6 3-point shooting percentage.

This blazing shooting can't continue.

The Heat ranked 27th during the regular season in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.4 percent. Butler is a great player, but he's not some insane scorer like he's been through the first four games. Only once in his 13-year NBA career has he averaged more than 23 points. He averaged 22.9 points this season.

The Bucks ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and had the fourth-best defensive efficiency in the league. The Heat were the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra is a defensive guru.

The intensity should be at its highest point for this game, especially from the Bucks.

The Timberwolves got their playoff victory coming from 12 points down in the fourth quarter to beat the Nuggets in overtime at home during Sunday's Game 4 of their series.

So the Timberwolves gained a little pride. The grim reality is they are down 3-1 in the series and back in Denver where they figure to get clobbered.

The Nuggets aren't going to screw around now with this overmatched opponent that could be missing three key rotation players. Minnesota definitely is minus injured Jaden McDaniels and Nat Reid and now Kyle Anderson is questionable with an eye injury.

Expect an intense effort from the now-aroused Nuggets at home. which should insure a double-digit victory. Denver has beaten Minnesota the past three times at home by an average of 24 points, including a 29-point win in Game 1. Denver has also covered six of the past seven times following a loss.

The Grizzlies have been road underdogs 16 times this season. Their record in those games? 0-16 SU, 2-14 ATS.

That's powerful evidence that this isn't a good spot for Memphis.

The Lakers are peaking at the right time. Superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both playing at high levels. The Lakers also are getting key contributions from role players Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroder.

The Grizzlies split the opening two games of this series at home. But they couldn't hang with the Lakers during Saturday's Game 3 in LA. The final score of LA winning, 111-101, is misleading. The Grizzlies were never in the game. The Lakers buried them, 35-9, in the first quarter.

Memphis lost by double-digits despite a monster performance from Ja Morant, who scored 45 points while shooting 13-of-26 from the floor. Morant scored more than half of those points during the meaningless fourth quarter.

The Grizzlies are minus big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. Adams led the Grizzlies in rebounding while Clarke was fourth.

James is at his competitive best spurred on in part by being goaded by the stupidity and dirty play of Dillon Brooks, who called James old and not worthy of respect.

The Hawks just didn't beat the Celtics, 130-122, in Friday's Game 3 of this series by riding an overdue great shooting game from Trae Young. They did it by also outscoring the Celtics by 14 points in the paint and grabbing 19 more rebounds.

Atlanta has been good at home, much better than on the road. The Hawks' confidence is up and I give them a coaching edge with Quin Snyder against playoff rookie Joe Mazzulla.

There's also a possibility the Celitcs won't have guard Marcus Smart, who is questionable with a tailbone injury.

If there's a key number in the NBA it's 6. So this is enough points for me to get involved with the Hawks.

Playoff basketball in the NBA is where defenses step up, right? You couldn't tell that at all from watching the first two games of the Heat-Bucks series. The first two games have flown Over the total.

I'm looking for reality to get a grip in this Game 3.

It doesn't matter if Giannis Antetokounmpo can play or not. I don't see the Bucks matching their two-game playoff average of 127.5 points, nor coming close to matching their series shooting percentage from the floor of 51.5 percent. Miami is the No. 2 scoring defense in the league. Erik Spoelstra is a well respected defensive coach. The Heat are home now. The teams last played on Wednesday so there has been ample time to game plan and adjust.

The same can be said for Milwaukee. The Bucks were No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. However, the Heat are averaging 126 points - 13 above their league-low season average - and shooting 56.5 percent from the field. That's insane.

While Antetokounmpo's status is taking center stage, the Heat definitely will be without Tyler Herro. He's Miami's third-leading scorer, its top 3-point shooter and best free throw shooter. Herro averages 20.1 points a game. The next closest to Herro on Miami's scoring list is Max Strus, who averages 11.5 points.

So, yes, I'm expecting a huge regression in the scoring and shooting percentages of these teams beginning with this Game 3.

I am far from convinced the Cavaliers are the better team in this series. I'm backing that belief up by taking the Knicks on the money line.

The Knicks were 23-18 at home during the regular season. They beat Cleveland both times at home. The Cavaliers have a losing road record. They also lost 13 of 16 times straight-up when they were a road underdog, which is the case here.

The Knicks upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland in Game 1. The Knicks - fat and content - mailed in Game 2 and were spanked, 107-90. Now the series shifts to Madison Square Garden. The Knicks won't be fat and happy here. Their intensity will be full bore. They are dangerous with a healthy Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson. The Knicks are going to get tremendous crowd support.

The Cavaliers are an outstanding defensive team. Their offense is heavily reliant upon Donovan Mitchell. He had trouble shooting at spacious Madison Square Garden in the two regular season games there hitting just 17 of 46 shots from the floor for 37 percent.

Cleveland has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to Madison Square Garden.

The key to getting this Over is believing each team can score 120 points. This is playoff basketball so that may seem like a tall order. But I see it getting accomplished in this Game 3 matchup.

The Kings have shot 45.3 percent from the floor during the first two games. They shot 49.4 percent from the field during the regular season. They've made 30 percent of their 3-point shots. They made 36.9 percent during the regular season.

Yet the Kings still are averaging 120 points per game in the series. They are due to shoot better. They were the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, while ranking No. 2 in shooting percentage and ninth in 3-point percentage.

Golden State ranked 21st in scoring defense and was below average, too, in 3-point defense. And that was with Draymond Green, its best defender. Green is suspended for this game.

Tempo is going to be huge here. The Warriors will run with anybody, especially at home. But will the Kings accommodate them? Yes, according to Sacramento coach Mike Brown. Here's what he was quoted as saying, ''We keep talking pace, pace, pace, pace. We gotta keep playing fast, fast, fast, fast, even faster than (Game 2) because that's the way we play. We generate a lot of points by just pushing the ball.''

Green gets his touches, but his presence will be missed more on defense. The Warriors have better statistics across the board when playing at home. They will look to bury the Kings down 0-2 in the series in must-win mode and needing positive reinforcement.

It shouldn't be that shocking Golden State is down 0-2 to Sacramento. After all, the first two games of this series were in Sacramento. The Warriors were 11-30 on the road.

But now the Warriors return home. That makes all the difference. Golden State is 33-8 at home. All of the Warriors' statistics are better at home than on the road. Each of Golden State's past nine home victories have been by at least eight points. The Warriors are 39-16-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 56 home contests.

I'm not worried the Warriors won't have Draymond Green. I'm being objective here since I haven't despised a Golden State player as much as I do Green since Rick Barry (yes I go that far back). Barry was a whiner. Green is a whiner and a dirty player.

I digress. I'll gladly accept the tradeoff of laying fewer points without Green. Because the Warriors won't need Green to produce an all-out effort at home in must-win mode while the Kings come in fat and happy having accomplished what they set out to do in Sacramento.

I'm expecting a professional, focused effort from the defending world champions without having to be concerned about Green's distractions and drama. Golden State went 2-0 at home this season when they didn't have Green.

The Kings are listing their best big man, Domantas Sabonis, as questionable with a bruised sternum. I fully expect Sabonis to play. It's just an unexpected bonus if he doesn't, or is limited.

It's a plus for the Under if Ja Morant can't play because of a right hand injury. Even if he does, though, I still like the Under.

The Lakers' 128-112 Game 1 victory in this series has some influence on why this total is too high in my view.

The Lakers shot 53 percent from the floor and 43 percent from 3-point range in the Game 1 victory. The teams combined to make 29 of 32 free throws for 91 percent.

The Grizzlies finished first in defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers ranked 25th in 3-point shooting at 34.6 percent. LA got a huge scoring burst from role players Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves. They combined for 52 points while shooting 19 of 27 from the floor for 70 percent. I don't see a repeat of that in this Game 2.

Memphis should be applying maximum intensity and defensive pressure knowing a loss would send them to LA down 0-2 in the series.

The Lakers have been playing outstanding defense down the stretch. They've held their last four foes to an average of 106 points in regulation.

I had the Clippers plus 7 1/2 in Game 1 of this series expecting a huge performance from Kawhi Leonard. So I wasn't surprised when Leonard scored 38 in the Clippers' upset victory this past Sunday.

But now I'm going the other way for this Game 2 riding the Zig Zag theory. I don't see the Suns losing a second straight home game, which would put them in serious jeopardy for the series.

Kevin Durant also played well in that Game 1. The Suns are 8-1 with Durant in their lineup. They way outnumber the Paul George-less Clippers in star power. The Suns won't be taking the Clippers lightly in this must-win spot.

The Clippers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a victory.

The Nets don't have nearly the talent anymore that the 76ers have. But the Nets are pesky, spunky and will be going all out after losing, 121-101, to Philadelphia in Saturday's Game 1 playoff matchup.

That was just the fourth time in their last 21 games that the Nets lost by more than 10 points.

The 76ers made a franchise-record 21 3-pointers while hitting 48 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The 76ers dominated the offensive glass. Philadelphia ended up getting 19 more shots than Brooklyn. The Nets committed 19 turnovers.

I'm expecting adjustments and far less sloppy play from the Nets in this Game 2.

Both teams play at a very slow pace. That held firm in Saturday's Game 1 where there were fewer than 91 possessions. Yet the total went Over with the 76ers winning, 121-101.

So what happened?

The Nets shot 56 percent from the floor. The 76ers set a team playoff record by making 21 3-pointers. They made 21 of 43 shots from behind the arc. That's 49 percent. The 76ers shot 38 percent from 3-point range during the regular season. 

The Nets rank fourth in defensive field goal percentage. The 76ers are third in scoring defense. If you discount a 123-point performance against the hapless Pistons, the Nets are averaging only 102 points in their last four games. 

These are two strong defenses and now they've played a playoff game against each other so defensive adjustments will be coming.

"Game 2 is going to be much more difficult,'' 76ers guard James Harden was quoted as saying. "They're going to make adjustments and we're going to make adjustments, so it's going to be the most important game of the series. ...'' 

Forget the regular season. The Clippers are in the playoffs. That makes them dangerous. They are a veteran team with arguably the best all-around player in basketball, Kawhi Leonard. Only twice during the previous two seasons did the Clippers lose by more than seven points in a playoff matchup spanning 21 games.

The Suns look far superior on paper with stars Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton. But The Suns aren't in sync yet due to Durant playing only eight games for them. Phoenix also doesn't have a deep bench. The Suns' reserve strength could be even more thin if injured Bismack Biyombo and Cameron Payne aren't ready to play after getting hurt during the second-to-last game of the regular season.

The Clippers have better reserves. Paul George is out, but the Clippers have Russell Westbrook along with underrated role players Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac and Nicolas Batum.

The Clippers also have proven extremely tough following ample rest. They have covered 69 percent of their last 52 games when playing with three or more days rest.

The Suns are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. They ranked between fifth and seventh, overall, in many of the major defensive categories, including fewest points per game, defensive field goal percentage and blocked shots.

Phoenix's defensive intensity should be at its peak, too, now that it's playoff time. They catch the Clippers without their leading scorer, injured Paul George and his 23.8 points per game average.

The season stats might not show it, but the Clippers are a strong defensive team, too, especially during the playoffs. Toss out giving up 130 points to the Suns two seasons ago and the Clippers have allowed just 99.3 points in their last six playoff games.

The teams last played a week ago. So there could be a rust factor.

The Under has cashed six of the last eight times the Clippers and Suns have met.

These are two good defensive teams. Now throw in playoff intensity, an early start time and how well acquainted they are with each other and you have the winning formula for an Under.

The Nets are a top-10 defensive team. They ranked fourth in defensive field goal percentage, too. That's not good news for James Harden. He's healthy at last. But Harden is more methodical rather than up-tempo. He holds the ball a long time taking time off the clock. Both teams rated in the bottom 10 in terms of pace.

Philadelphia had the third-stingiest defense. The 76ers rank fifth in 3-point defense. If you discount a 123-point performance against the hapless Pistons, the Nets are averaging 102.6 points in their last three games.

These teams have had six days to study each other's sets and tendencies, something they already know. They're familiar with the plays they run. This is Game 1, a feeling out process. It's an early start, too.

So don't expect a high-scoring game.

Disrespected by the oddsmaker and marketplace all season, Oklahoma City has proven it is far ahead of schedule. The Thunder have covered 57 percent of their games this season going 46-34-3 ATS. They will reach the playoffs if they beat the Timberwolves.

The Thunder upset the Pelicans on Wednesday. I see them doing the same to Minnesota. Oklahoma City is on house money. The pressure is on the favored Timberwolves. Minnesota is banged-up and has chemistry issues. I find the Timberwolves untrustworthy. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.

Only twice in their last 10 games have the Thunder lost by more than five points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is as big as any star Minnesota has.

Rudy Gobert is back from his one-game suspension for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. Gobert, though, is not 100 percent due to back trouble. Jaden McDaniels, a top defensive wing, is out. So is Naz Reid. Those are two key rotation players for Minnesota.

The Thunder have covered in six of their last seven visits to Minnesota.

Few expected the Thunder to reach the postseason this season. The Thunder are on house money with all the pressure on the home Pelicans with the loser of this matchup eliminated.

The Pelicans went 9-3 down the stretch to reach this point. That took a lot of physical and mental energy.

Oklahoma City has lost only twice by more than five points during its last nine games. The Thunder have confidence knowing they defeated the Pelicans, 110-96, in New Orleans when the teams last met on March 11.

The Thunder have been strong money-makers all season going 45-34-3 ATS, the third-best spread in the NBA.

I trust them to hang in against the Pelicans.

The Lakers are hot, peaking at the right time. The Timberwolves lack the bodies, maturity and leadership to stay close on the road against the Lakers here.

LA has won nine of its last 11 games with six of those victories coming by 11 or more points. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are in sync. D'Angelo Russell is back contributing.

The Timberwolves are in disarray - and it's not just because star center Rudy Gobert is suspended for this game for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. The Timberwolves have three underrated injuries: Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell. They are all out. Those are the Timberwolves' fourth, sixth and seventh-leading scorers and key complementary players.

So without those three and Gobert, Minnesota is down four of its nine rotation players. It's too much to expect Minnesota to stay within single digits of the hot Lakers on the road minus all those components especially given their team makeup.

There are a lot of insane lines today, the last day of the NBA regular season. This looks like one of them with the road Clippers opening as double-digit favorites against the Suns.

But it makes sense considering the Clippers plan on playing their starters, while the Suns will be resting their best players.

Still, there could be some gamesmanship involved on the Clippers' end.

Here's the possible scenarios: If the Clippers beat the Suns they finish as the No. 5 seed in the West. That would mean a first-round matchup against - yep, you guessed it the Suns. So neither team will want to show much here.

However, if the Clippers lose, they likely would fall to the No. 6 seed and thus draw the Kings. Playing the Kings, with their playoff inexperience, would be easier than getting the Suns. So Tyronn Lue might be bluffing when he says he'll be playing his starters. He still could start them for appearance sake, but reduce their minutes, especially Kawhi Leonard.

Phoenix is locked into the No. 4 seed. Suns coach Monty Williams is expected to sit out Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. The Suns don't have much firepower minus those stars.

Instead the big minutes on the Suns will go to Torrey Craig, Jock Landale and Josh Okogie.

So I'm going Under the total in anticipation of these expected developments, which I see as all favoring a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker projects.

At worst, the Timberwolves are going to be involved in the postseason with a play-in game. They would rather earn the No. 8 seed in the West, which they are live to do if they beat the Spurs here, Pelicans on Sunday and things fall their way.

The Timberwolves, though, are just 5-10 against the NBA's five worst teams. That includes the Spurs, who are 2-1 versus Minnesota this season. So the Timberwolves do not have a good track record in these types of games. They lack that maturity. They also are laying an inflated number because of their playoff situation.

"We always fall short, it seems,'' Anthony Edwards was quoted as saying about the Timberwolves' struggles against bottom feeders. "It always haunts us. It's just a level of respect for the game. You've got to treat every game the same, and that's something that we lack.''

This is the Spurs' second consecutive game at the Moody Center in Austin. That's where their G-League franchise is located. The Spurs beat the Trail Blazers, 129-127, there on Thursday, sparked by the atmosphere and crowd support.

The Timberwolves haven't played there. Minnesota last was in action on Tuesday. So there could be a rust factor for the Timberwolves.

Two horrible teams with nothing to play for get together in their second-to-last game of the season. Sounds like an Over to me, especially when those teams are the Pistons and Pacers.

Detroit is 1-22 in its last 23 games. The Pistons rank 27th in scoring defense and 28th in defensive field goal percentage. They've surrendered at least 118 points in seven of their last eight games.

Indiana is 2-8 in its last 10 games. The Pacers rank 29th in scoring defense and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. They are giving up an average of 129.8 points during their last seven games.

The Over has cashed eight of the last nine times the Pacers have hosted the Pistons.

Neither team is strong defensively and both are off high-scoring games this past Tuesday. However, those two results were misleading. The Thunder were playing the high-scoring Warriors at Golden State while the Jazz went to overtime against the rejuvenated Lakers.

This matchup should be entirely different. Defensive intensity should be way up with both teams in contention for the play-in tournament.

The Jazz especially will be defensive-minded playing at home minus injured starters Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Those are Utah's three leading scorers. Expect a slow pace from Utah.

The Thunder have gone Under 10 of the past 13 times when playing a sub .500 opponent.

The Pacers are out of the playoff race. They aren't likely to have their two best players, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner.

So why back Indiana?

The Knicks lack motivation and are banged-up. New York is locked into the No. 5 playoff seed in the East.

Julius Randle, New York's best player, is out for the rest of the regular season because of an ankle injury. Star point guard Jalen Brunson, the Knicks' second-best player, is dealing with hand and foot injuries that have caused him to miss seven of the last 15 games.

The Pacers should play hard. Their young players are fighting for jobs. Rick Carlisle is a good coach who demands effort. Indiana upset Oklahoma City at home two games ago and in its last game led the Cavaliers for most of the contest before falling apart during the final four minutes in a 10-point road loss this past Sunday. The Pacers were derailed in that game by Donovan Mitchell, who shot 14-of-25 from the field and scored 40 points. The Knicks don't have a shooter nearly the superstar caliber of Mitchell.

This is what Carlisle was quoted as saying: ''The way we're set up for our young guys, it really is a great opportunity for them. ''... This period of the last 2 1/2, three weeks is very valuable. This creates momentum into next season. We have momentum with our roster.''

Look for the Pacers to hang here if not pull out an outright victory.

(Editor's note: The line has dropped considerably since I posted this play in large part because Brunson has been ruled out. I still would strongly back the Pacers believing Indiana is very live to win this game straight-up.) 

The Lakers are peaking with LeBron James and Anthony Davis showing good chemistry since James' return from injury. LA has won three in a row. 
But this has caused this line to be inflated. The pesky Jazz can hang in at home. They have the third-best point spread mark in the NBA at 57.8 percent. 

Utah has covered 12 of the last 16 times when playing on one day's rest. The Jazz are capable of springing upsets at home. Just a little more than 2 1/2 weeks ago, Utah upset the Kings and Celtics.

The Lakers have a bigger game on tap tomorrow when they return to LA to play in-city division rival the Clippers. This could mean reduced minutes for James and the fragile Davis in tonight's game. 

The Nuggets are on the verge of clinching the top seed in the Western Conference. They don't feel a great deal of urgency to prove themselves during this final week of the regular season. So superstar Nikola Jokic will be sitting out this game, continuing to nurse tightness in his calf.

This opens the door for the home 'dog Rockets to stay within single digits.

This will be the Nuggets' fourth consecutive game without Jokic. During this span they lost to the Pelicans by 19 at home, lost by 7 to the Suns and edged the Warriors by two at home two days ago leaving them fat, happy and unmotivated for this matchup.

The Rockets are capable. They are 4-3 in their last seven home games. Among the teams the Rockets beat at home during this time frame were the Celtics, Lakers and Pelicans.

Orlando has the second-best point spread mark in the NBA covering 58 percent. Most of these covers came as underdogs. 

That's the case again here. 

Orlando is on the verge of being eliminated from the play-in race. This is last stand time for the Magic. That should ensure a strong effort. The Magic have been playing well going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning five of their past six games. 

The Cavaliers are all but locked into the No. 4 seed in the East. The Cavaliers aren't likely to be super motivated here. 

I want the Bucks going for me at home in double-revenge against the 76ers and off their second-worst loss in franchise history following a 140-99 embarrassment to the Celtics. Milwaukee is 13-5 ATS following a non-point spread cover.

The prideful Bucks and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo should be highly motivated for this matchup.

The 76ers have won the past two meetings in the series. They stopped the Bucks' 16-game winning streak with a 133-130 on March 4.

Milwaukee has covered seven of the last 10 times it has hosted the 76ers.

The Warriors came back from a 20-point deficit to beat the Pelicans in their last game. Up next for Golden State is a Sunday showdown against the Nuggets in Denver.

So you can't blame the Warriors if they look past the lowly Spurs in this matchup.

Golden State is 0-2 ATS this season laying more than 12 points. This is the most points the Warriors are laying all season in a game.

The Spurs have guaranteed themselves finishing in the bottom three giving them the best chances, along with the Pistons and Rockets, of landing the No. 1 pick in the draft. So the Spurs have motivation.

The backdoor should swing wide open for the Spurs if the Warriors were to build a huge lead because Steve Kerr would reduce the minutes of his star players.

I understand the Trail Blazers are fielding a JV lineup these days. But the situation sets up perfect for Portland to cover this large number.

Sacramento clinched a playoff spot following its last game this past Wednesday. That's a big deal for the Kings. They had gone 16 seasons without earning a postseason berth, the longest playoff drought in NBA history.

The team who the Kings beat Wednesday? None other than the Trail Blazers. And the Kings buried them, 120-80.

Hard to believe the Kings are going to have any intensity for this matchup after celebrating their playoff spot and knowing how bad their opponent is.

This is Portland's second-to-last home game. The Trail Blazers should put forth a great effort after Wednesday's humiliation.

Even though the Jazz are going to be missing Lauri Markkanen due to a hand injury, this spot sets up well for Utah.

Boston is off perhaps its finest victory of the season. The Celtics buried the host Bucks, 140-99, last night.

Now the Celtics return home to play this matchup without rest while laying a big number.

The Jazz are spunky and remain in playoff contention. They beat the Celtics in the team's earlier meeting this season and are quite capable of keeping the final score within single digits.

Utah has covered its last six road games. The Jazz also are 14-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage above .600.

These teams have star scorers, but have been playing strong defenses. That's reflected in the Pelicans going Under in six of their last seven games and the Under cashing in each of the Nuggets' last six games.

If you discount giving up 120 points to the high-scoring Warriors at Golden State, the Pelicans have surrendered only 97.4 points in their last five games. New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in scoring defense and first in 3-point percentage defense. The Under has cashed in seven of New Orleans' last eight road games.

Denver has held its last six foes to an average of 106.5 points. The Nuggets rank 10th in scoring defense and are No. 3 in 3-point percentage defense. They also are the No. 1 defensive rebounding club.

Don't look for the Pelicans to push pace. This marks their fourth game in six days and third in four days. They are playing, too, in Denver's high altitude.

During the past eight meetings in Denver between the two teams, the Under has cashed six times.

The teams just met this past Sunday in LA. It was LeBron James' first game following a 13-game absence due to a foot injury. James played fewer than 30 minutes, had some rust and Chicago beat the Lakers, 118-108. That halted a three-game Lakers win streak.

The Lakers haven't played since. The Bulls concluded their three-game West Coast trip against the Clippers this past Monday night. This marks the Bulls' fourth game in six days. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS the past six times when playing on two days rest.

I see the rested Lakers getting their revenge catching the more tired Bulls in a vulnerable spot with Chicago home for the first time in eight days. So does the oddsmaker opening the Lakers a road favorite.

James should be back to top form. The Bulls are 2-4 in their last six home contests with one of those victories coming against the Timberwolves in overtime.

The Lakers have covered in five of their last six visits to Chicago.

Down their top three scorers, the Hornets have become a dead-nuts Under team especially away from home. Charlotte has gone Under in each of its last five games. The Under has cashed in 10 of the Hornets' last 11 road games.

LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier are out for Charlotte. Kelly Oubre has missed the last two games due to a shoulder injury. He's questionable here. Those are Charlotte's three top scorers. They lack firepower without those players especially inside at center with Kai Jones, Nick Richards and Mark Williams all rotating. The Hornets rank 27th in scoring, 29th in field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point percentage.

Oklahoma City is above average in defensive field goal percentage. The Thunder, though, haven't been doing much scoring either lately. They are averaging 108.7 points in their last four games.

During the past nine meetings between the two teams, the Under has cashed seven times.

Not only is this a terrible spot for the Timberwolves, but their two best players could be impacted.

Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards played major minutes helping the Timberwolves upset the Warriors, 99-96, at Golden State last night. It's asking a lot for the Timberwolves to pull off a second consecutive upset - and doing it without rest.

Towns has played just twice since missing 51 games with a calf injury. He's on a minutes restriction. He logged 32 minutes against Golden State, which is more than Minnesota wanted to use him. Edwards returned after missing three straight games with a sprained ankle. He logged 35 minutes.

The Timberwolves play at the Suns on Wednesday followed by a home game against the Lakers on Friday. So they could be thinking long-term and hold out Towns and Edwards not wanting to risk those stars getting hurt after playing the night before, especially considering how fast and up-tempo the Kings play. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times following a victory.

Sacramento is 23-15 at home. Minnesota is 17-20 on the road.

The Kings beat the Jazz by eight points at home in their last game two days ago minus De'Aaron Fox. He sat out with a hamstring injury. It's an injury that's not considered serious. Fox is questionable for this matchup. It's a nice bonus if Fox plays. But I still like the Kings to cover even if Fox doesn't suit up.

After beating the Nets twice on the road in close games, the Cavaliers are back home for the first time in nine days fat, happy and laying a boatload of points here. On deck for the Cavaliers is a road game against the Hawks Tuesday. 

So, yes, I consider this a flat spot for Cleveland. It could be hard for the Cavaliers to not be overconfident after the Rockets just were destroyed, 151-114, by the Grizzlies this past Friday.

The key question here is are the Rockets capable of hanging around with the Cavaliers? 

Given the circumstances and Houston being healthy except for rotation player, Jae'Sean Tate, I'd say yes. 

The Rockets are in rebuild mode, but they don't lack talent. They nearly upset the Grizzlies on Wednesday before the Grizzlies buried them in the rematch. Houston is 3-4 in its last seven games. The Rockets are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games. 

Houston shouldn't lack motivation following its humiliating loss to the Grizzlies. A strong effort by the Rockets should produce a comfortable point spread cover.  

The Kings are a huge success story this season with a 44-29 record, which translates to a .603 winning percentage.

Sacramento, however, has a losing record when its star point guard, De'Aaron Fox, doesn't play. Fox isn't likely to play here after suffering a hamstring injury in the Kings' 135-127 home win against the Suns last night.

The Jazz also played last night and were buried at home by the Bucks, 144-116. Because of the blowout, none of the Jazz players logged big minutes. The Kings, on the other hand, had three starters go big minutes in the win against the Suns.

Utah has proven resilient going 11-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Jazz also are 13-3 ATS when playing an opponent with a win percentage above .600.

Utah and Sacramento have met three times this season. The Kings won the first two games by a combined three points. The Jazz upset the Kings, 128-120, at home in the last meeting this past Monday. Utah won that game despite not having Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson. It's a plus if either of those two can play today with Markkanen being listed as questionable.

The Jazz have covered the past five times against Sacramento.

I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games.

I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here.

This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here.

The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago.

The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have injured DeMar DeRozan.

I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games.

I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here.

This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here.

The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago.

The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have DeMar DeRozan.

The line has gone up since I released this play as Damian Lillard is questionable and Jusuf Nurkic is doubtful. Given the iffy status of these key players, I would downgrade my selection from one unit to half a unit.

The Bucks are not a team I normally want to go against. Not only do the Bucks have the best record in the NBA, but they've also covered 57 percent of the games.

But this spot sets up for Utah and the line value is there. The Jazz are a top-four team against the spread like Milwaukee, covering 57 percent of their games, too.

The Bucks haven't been on the road in 10 days. They have a huge look-ahead marquee game up next at the Nuggets - the West's No. 1 seed - on Saturday.

Utah had its two-game win streak snapped in a bad 12-point home loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago. Prior to that, Utah had covered six in a row. The Jazz should play hard here following that home humiliation. Utah has to play road games in four of its next five games.

The Bucks won't have Khris Middleton, arguably their second-best player. They may limit Giannis Antetokounmpo's minutes, too, knowing they have a monster matchup tomorrow.

Milwaukee traditionally hasn't fared well in Utah's high altitude. The Bucks are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games in Salt Lake City.

I'm going to buy low on the Knicks' defense here. New York has lost two in a row. The Knicks allowed 127 points to the Heat and 140 points to the Timberwolves in those losses.

Is New York's defense that bad?

No. The Knicks rank 12th in scoring defense, third in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in 3-point defense. They had allowed an average of 107.7 points during their four previous games going against the Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Clippers. Those teams all are superior offensively to the Magic, who rank 26th in scoring.

The Knicks will be focusing much harder on the defensive end here and they have a weak-scoring opponent. The Magic should have their intensity, too, still alive for the play-in tournament spot. Orlando relies more on defense - where it ranks 17th in scoring defense and eighth in 3-point defense - than offense to beat opponents.

This has been an Under series with the low side cashing the past four times.

Maybe the Bulls have the 76ers' number this season. But I'll lay this short number to find out.

Chicago ended the 76ers' eight-game home win streak back on Jan. 6, winning 126-112. Joel Embiid didn't play in that game. The Bulls then halted the 76ers' eight-game win streak this past Monday, beating Philadelphian in double overtime, 109-105. 

That was the first time Embiid lost to the Bulls in 13 career games. 

The 76ers didn't play well at home against Chicago. They committed 21 turnovers and missed 26 of 36 shots from 3-point range. James Harden was uncharacteristically bad making just 2-of-14 shots from the field. 

Philadelphia is the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the NBA and also ranks No. 3 in defensive 3-point percentage. I'm betting on a bounce back game from the 76ers, who are 14 games better than the Bulls, in this short revenge spot. 

Ja Morant is set to make his return today for Memphis. That's great news for the Grizzlies. But it also could affect their concentration. This already is a letdown spot for the Grizzlies after they rallied in the fourth quarter to beat the Mavericks at home two days ago in a hotly contested game. 

Morant is expected to play. However, Memphis will be minus three key rotation players - suspended Dillon Brooks and injured Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. 

Don't be deceived by Houston's poor season record. The Rockets have gotten healthy and have been playing better going 5-5 in their last 10 games. They've covered in their last two road games, losing to the Pacers in overtime and rolling past the Spurs.  

The total has been bet up to the point where I'm going Under.

This is an important game for both teams. So the defensive intensity should be there.

Oklahoma City is underrated defensively. Since Jan. 1, the Thunder have ranked 11th defensively. They rank 12th in defensive field goal percentage on the season.

The Thunder have allowed 108.2 points in their last five games. The Clippers are giving up an average of 107.2 points in their last five games. The Clippers are a top-10 defensive team.

The Under has cashed 74 percent of the time during the Clippers' past 39 home games.

The Kings have been a huge success story this season. But Utah is below-the-radar and this is a bad spot for the Kings, in action for the fourth time in six days and off three consecutive road wins beating the Bulls, Nets and Wizards.

The Jazz have covered five in a row. They just upset the Celtics at home two days ago. This is only the Jazz's second game in seven days so they are fresher than Sacramento.

Utah has double revenge going, too, The Kings nipped the Jazz twice, winning by a combined margin of three points.

The Jazz are 12-2 ATS the past 14 times they've played an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. They also are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings versus the Kings.

You have to go back to Feb. 13 to find the last time the Pacers lost consecutive games. It's not asking too much of Indiana to just beat Charlotte straight-up.

The Pacers were blown out by the 76ers this past Saturday. Indiana upset the Bucks on the road in its previous game. The Pacers are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS following a loss.

Unlike the Hornets, the Pacers still have a shot at earning the play-in spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana's best player, is out with a knee injury. But the Hornets also have a key injury with LaMelo Ball out. The Hornets are 2-7 since Ball suffered his season-ending ankle injury.

The Hornets are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS during their current homestand. They are the second worst home team in the league at 11-24.

The 76ers have won eight in a row. They've had this game circled for more than three months. Sparked by Zach LaVine's torrid shooting in a 41-point performance, the Bulls upset the 76ers, 126-112, as 5-point road 'dogs on Jan. 6. That snapped Philadelphia's 11-game home win streak. LaVine made 14 of 19 shots from the floor and hit 11 of 13 3-pointers.

I highly doubt LaVine comes close to repeating those numbers. The 76ers rank third defensively and fourth in defensive 3-point percentage. Nobody in the NBA is playing better than Joel Embiid. He's scored 30 or more points in nine consecutive games. Embiid should be rested and raring to go after sitting out the fourth quarter in the 76ers' 141-121 blowout victory against the Pacers this past Saturday.

The Bulls are 4-1 in their last five games, although they needed a lot of good fortune to pull out a double overtime home win against the Timberwolves two games ago. The Timberwolves lost Anthony Edwards early in the game. This is Chicago's third game in four days and fourth game in six days. It's the Bulls' first road game in nine days. The Bulls are 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight away matchups.

Philadelphia has been dominant at home with a 26-10 record. The 76ers have covered seven of the last nine times they've hosted Chicago. The 76ers had covered eight in a row against Chicago until that January defeat.

The Pelicans won't be taking the 18-52 Rockets lightly. Just the opposite. Houston upset New Orleans, 114-112, at home this past Friday.

New Orleans may have suffered from overconfidence in building a 16-point second-half lead. It was the first time during the past six meetings Houston covered against New Orleans.

The Pelicans are fighting to make the postseason. They can't take a second straight loss to the lowly Rockets. New Orleans has the two best players on the court in Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas.

The Rockets are 5-14 in their last 19 games. They are on a season-best three-game win streak. The Pelicans have excelled in these spots, though. They are 18-7-1 ATS (72 percent) the last 26 times playing a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The 35-35 Timberwolves are a better team than the 31-37 Bulls. The question is can the Timberwolves beat the Bulls on the road? I'll take these points to find out.

Minnesota is in better current form and has been playing well on the road. The Bulls have lost their last three home games, falling to the Kings this past Wednesday, Pacers and Suns.

Chicago is 2-3 in its last five games. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS the past nine times following a loss.

Minnesota is off a tough, 104-102, home loss to the Celtics this past Wednesday. The Timberwolves were whisted for four technical fouls in the loss. They held Boston to 13 points below its season average.

Despite that tough loss, the Timberwolves are 4-3 in their last seven games. They've won their last three road games defeating the Hawks, Lakers and Clippers. They also are 4-0 ATS the past four times as a 'dog and are 9-3 ATS following a loss.

It's going to take a lot of points for me to pick against the Bucks. But the combination of getting enough points and the situation put me on the Pacers.

The Bucks just concluded a three-game West Coast trip late Tuesday night. They beat the Kings on Monday in a physical game that turned ugly at the end when Brook Lopez had to play enforcer after Trey Lyles committed a cheap shot foul on Giannis Antetokounmpo during the final seconds. The Bucks then scored a satisfying victory against the Suns on Tuesday playing without rest.

Now Milwaukee returns home to face the Pacers. The Bucks can't be faulted for feeling good about themselves - and taking this opponent lightly. Milwaukee has beaten Indiana 10 straight times. The Pacers are coming off a 117-97 road loss to the Pistons this past Monday.

Indiana was trying to sweep the lowly Pistons without its best players. The Pacers defeated the Pistons this past Saturday, but couldn't do it again minus Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and backup point guard T.J. McConnell.

I expect all three of those players to be in Indiana's lineup today. They all practiced on Wednesday. The Pacers had covered four consecutive road games before that Monday defeat to the Pistons.

Magnificent at home, terrible on the road. That's been the Warriors' pattern all season and I don't see a deviation from it here. 

Golden State is off impressive home victories against the Bucks this past Saturday and against the Suns on Monday. But now they go on the road to face a peaking and rested Clippers squad. 

The Warriors are 7-26 away from home. They have lost their last eight road games. 

The Clippers have gotten in sync with recently acquired Russell Westbrook after a slow transition period. LA has won three in a row and is back to playing outstanding defense giving up an average of 97.5 points during their last two games. The Warriors average 12 fewer points per game when on the road. 

The Clippers last played on Saturday. So they should be well-rested and ready. 

The Lakers are playing without rest after burying the Pelicans last night and won't have LeBron James nor Anthony Davis.

But this spread is low enough to back LA against the Rockets, who are 3-14 in their last 17 games.

The Lakers are 5-0 ATS the past five times on zero rest. They've covered in five of their last six visits to Houston.

The Rockets are in a rare letdown spot after shocking the Celtics, 111-109, at home two days ago. The Lakers should have their full intensity knowing the Rockets beat the Celtics and not having their two superstar players to rely on.

This total is too high given the caliber of defenses these two teams have.

The 76ers rank No. 3 defensively in the NBA. They've held two of their last three opponents to fewer than 95 points.

Cleveland is the No. 1 defensive team in the league. If you discount the Cavaliers allowing 119 points to the Heat, they've given up an average of 102.2 points in their last five games.

Want to know who the top point spread team in the NBA is? It's Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 40-25-3 (60.5 percent) ATS. They also are 20-15 straight-up at home and catch the Nets in a heavy fatigue spot.

Both teams are playing well each going 5-1 in their last six games. But Oklahoma City is home and drawing what should be a tired Nets squad.

This is Brooklyn's fourth game in six days and the finale of a five-game, eight-day road swing. The Nets just upset the Nuggets, 122-120, two days ago. So a letdown could be in store.

I don't find it too much for the Thunder to simply win this game. They defeated the Nets, 112-102, on the road Jan. 15 during the first meeting.

This may be the only time I write this for the rest of the season, but the Spurs are actually fat and happy. They are coming off a shocking, 128-120, win against the Nuggets this past Friday.

Oklahoma City won't be overlooking the Spurs now for sure. The Thunder are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA. San Antonio is the worst defensive team in the league by far.

The Thunder are in the playoff picture. They've won four of their last five games, including beating the Pelicans, 110-96, in New Orleans last night. Fatigue shouldn't factor for the Thunder since they were idle the previous two days prior to that win.

The teams have met twice so far this season. The Thunder won those games by 16 and 8 points, respectively.

It's not a surprise that the last four Nets games that didn't go into overtime all went Under. Brooklyn has been first in defensive efficiency and 27th in offensive efficiency during its last five games.

Despite no Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the Nets have won four of their last five games. However, they run into an angry Nuggets team here. Denver has dropped two in a row with the latest being an embarrassing, 128-120, road loss to the lowly Spurs two days ago.

Expect some serious defensive intensity from the Nuggets, who rank 13th defensively and are fifth in 3-point defense.

An early start is a plus, too, for the Under.

The Suns don't need Kevin Durant to cover this small home point spread.

Phoenix is 5-1 in its last six games. The Suns' lone loss during this span came to the Bucks by three points on the road. Phoenix's average winning margin during this time frame is 15.8 points.

The Suns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Devin Booker is on fire averaging 38 points during his last four games.

The Kings are much improved. Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox are having superstar-type seasons. But the Kings are not an elite team. They are off a 122-117 home win against the Knicks two days ago where they were outrebounded, 58-42.

The Suns defeated the Kings, 120-109, in the team's last meeting on Feb. 14. Phoenix also beat the Kings on the road by five points in the first meeting this season.

The Raptors hung in against the Nuggets this past Monday taking it to the final minute before losing. Toronto then was homered in a 108-100 loss to the Clippers two days ago. The Raptors shot just 38.5 percent from the floor in that game and the Clippers got to shoot 17 more free throws. Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George played for the Clippers in that matchup.

Now the hungry Raptors step down in class to face the Lakers, who remain without LeBron James.

The Lakers are fat and happy having won their last two games, both at home beating the Warriors and Grizzlies. D'Angelo Russell is expected back for LA. However, he figures to be rusty having missed the last six games.

The Raptors beat the Lakers earlier this season and have covered 13 of the last 16 times on the road against LA.

The Knicks are tied for the best road record in the NBA at 20-12.

New York just suffered its first loss since Feb. 10, ambushed by the Hornets at home this past Tuesday. That ended the Knicks' nine-game win streak. The Knicks had just beaten the Celtics in double-overtime at Boston prior to meeting the Knicks.

The Knicks ran out of gas against the Hornets after leading by 16 points at halftime.

Now the Knicks have regrouped and gotten their focus back. This is the first of four games on the West Coast for the Knicks. I'm expecting a strong effort following that surprising loss to the double-digit underdog Hornets.

The Kings are expected to get De'Aaron Fox back from a hamstring injury. But the Knicks could get back their star point guard, Jalen Brunson, from a foot injury. He made the trip to Sacramento.

The Knicks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They also have covered 74 percent of their last 43 away games.

The Raptors rank seventh defensively giving up 112.1 points per game. That average shrinks to 108.1 points going by their last six games.

However, we have a high total here because the Clippers have been getting torched on the defensive end.

I see a renewed defensive commitment from the Clippers starting with this game.

This is the first time in nine games the Clippers are playing an Eastern Conference foe. Their last eight games have all been against Western Conference opponents, including the high-scoring Kings twice, Nuggets and Warriors.

Toronto ranks 23rd in scoring at 112.6 points. The Raptors don't play fast like many Western Conference teams.

The Clippers still rank 13th in the league defensively. The Under has cashed in 26 of their last 35 home games for 74 percent.

The Under also has cashed six of the past eight times these two teams have met.

The Knicks are generating headlines with nine wins in a row, the last coming in double-overtime on the road against the Celtics two days ago.

No one is talking about the Hornets. Not that they should be. Charlotte doesn't have injured star point guard LaMelo Ball and has dropped three in a row.

However, this situation lays out well for the Hornets to keep within double-digits of New York.

The Knicks are playing for the seventh time in 12 days. Their last four games have been against four long-time rivals - Celtics, Nets, Heat and Celtics again. They nipped the Heat and Celtics on the road by two points each in their last two games.

Now the Knicks return to Madison Square Garden fat and happy. They will go on a four-game West Coast trip that begins Thursday following this matchup.

This is a real flat spot for the Knicks, who could be without their own star point guard, Jalen Brunson. He's questionable with an ankle injury.

Despite not having Ball, the Hornets are capable. Charlotte usually plays with effort and energy for Steve Clifford. The Hornets have held four of their last five opponents to 106 points or fewer. Ball was their leading scorer. But Kelly Oubre Jr. and Terry Rozier both average more than 20 points a game. Dennis Smith is a capable veteran point guard. He's also a former Knick.

The Hornets have covered five of the last seven times when playing the Knicks on the road.

The Raptors are a mediocre Eastern Conference club that has a losing record on the season, mainly because of a 12-20 road mark.

Only once have the Raptors played an above .500 team during their last 10 games. That was a road game against the Cavaliers. Cleveland buried the Raptors, 118-93.

Denver is 29-4 at home. The Nuggets have lost once at home since Dec. 6. Denver has won each of its last seven home games by nine or more points.

So why should this home matchup be any different?

It shouldn't. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and that includes covering against the Wizards in overtime this past Saturday.

The Raptors have failed to cover on the road against the Nuggets in six of their last seven visits. Playing in Denver's thin mountain air isn't going to help them coming off a Saturday night overtime game that was played on the East Coast.

The Nuggets have covered each of the last six times they've hosted an opponent with a below .500 road record.

After missing the past 11 games with a knee injury, Stephen Curry is set to return here against the Lakers. Aside from Curry likely to be rusty, the Lakers are in must-win mode and catch the Warriors fat and happy after Golden State just swept its five-game homestand.

So this spot sets up for the underdog Lakers especially given the Warriors' Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde home/road performances. Golden State is 27-7 at home and 7-23 on the road.

The Lakers can't afford to lose home games like they did to the Timberwolves this past Friday. They did get Anthony Davis back for that. I'm expecting a much more focused and intense effort from the Lakers.

The Warriors are playing for the seventh time in 11 days. Every one of their five victories during their recent homestand were come-from-behind wins with four of those games involving double-digit comebacks.

Golden State isn't going to be able to turn the switch on and off like that being on the road, where it has lost the past five times going 0-4-1 ATS.

After missing the past 11 games with a knee injury, Stephen Curry is set to return here against the Lakers. Aside from Curry likely to be rusty, the Lakers are in must-win mode and catch the Warriors fat and happy after Golden State just swept its five-game homestand.

So this spot sets up for the underdog Lakers especially given the Warriors' Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde home/road performances. Golden State is 27-7 at home and 7-23 on the road.

The Lakers can't afford to lose home games like they did to the Timberwolves this past Friday. They did get Anthony Davis back for that. I'm expecting a much more focused and intense effort from the Lakers.

The Warriors are playing for the seventh time in 11 days. Every one of their five victories during their recent homestand were come-from-behind wins with four of those games involving double-digit comebacks.

Golden State isn't going to be able to turn the switch on and off like that being on the road, where it has lost the past five times going 0-4-1 ATS.

Surprised the Raptors opened an away favorite against the Wizards after just losing to Washington, 119-108, on the road this past Thursday?

Don't be.

The oddsmaker knows what he is doing. I see Toronto bouncing back in this shortest of revenge spots.

The Raptors were flat against the Wizards. They played terribly and Toronto coach Nick Nurse let them know about that. He questioned his team's energy and competitive juices.

Nurse is a good coach. He knows how to make proper adjustments and to motivate his team. I'm looking for the Raptors to put forth a strong effort this time around.

The Raptors have covered the past four times after losing by double-digits.

The handicap here is very straightforward. Denver is extremely tough at home and in short revenge. The Grizzlies are terrible on the road.

The Nuggets are 28-4 at home. Their last loss at Ball Arena came on Dec. 6. They've been idle since Tuesday and have revenge for an 18-point road loss to the Grizzlies suffered six days ago.

The Grizzlies are 12-18 on the road. Until they beat the bottom-feeding Rockets in Houston two days ago, the Grizzlies had lost eight consecutive away games going 1-7 ATS in those matchups.

The Spurs are playing their first home game since Feb. 3. Their season-long nine-game road trip finally has finished.

So I'm looking for a loosely-played, up-tempo game.

The Pacers certainly should produce their share of points. They rank 12th in scoring without the benefit of getting to play too many games against weak defensive opponents from the Western Conference.

Indiana is averaging 123.3 points in regulation during its last three games against much stronger defenses than the Spurs, while getting high level play from Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner. San Antonio is the worst defensive team in the NBA ranking in the bottom in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

The Pacers, though, have a bottom-10 defense. The Spurs should be motivated to put on a show being back home and having just ended their 16-game losing streak.

There were 271 points scored in the first meeting, won by the Spurs, 137-134. It won't take nearly that many to get this total Over.

After winning three in a row, the Lakers lost LeBron James and then lost to the Grizzlies, 121-109, last night in their first game without James.

James remains out. But I believe the Lakers bounce back in this revenge spot against the Thunder. The Lakers have had a game to adjust to James' absence. Oklahoma City also is without its own LeBron James with All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined. He's missed the Thunder's past three games due to an abdominal strain and a right ankle injury. Oklahoma City is 0-3 in those games losing by nine points to the Suns and suffering losses to the Kings by nine and six points.

The Thunder have allowed 123, 124 and 124 points in their past three games. LA is the better defensive team.

The teams met on Feb. 7. James broke the NBA's all-time scoring record in that game, but the Thunder won. The Lakers haven't forgotten. They are a better all-around team following the trade deadline minus Russell Westbrook and with the addition of several good rotation players. 

The total has dropped but it still is worth going Under. 

Much has changed since the Lakers nipped the Grizzlies, 122-121, last month. Memphis is playing much stronger defense now. The Lakers have altered their roster. Russell Westbrook and his fast-tempo style have departed. LeBron James is out with a foot injury. D'Angelo Russell isn't likely to play either due to an ankle sprain. 

Memphis is giving up an average of 105.1 points during its last seven games. That low figure shrinks even more to 102.8 if you toss out the 119 points the Grizzlies surrendered to the Celtics, the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA, four games ago. Memphis held the powerful Nuggets to 94 points in its last game this past Saturday. That was 23 points below the Nuggets' season average. 

The Lakers have held their last three opponents to an average of 107 points. Those foes were the Pelicans, Warriors and Mavericks, three pretty good offenses. 

Both teams have games on Wednesday. So if the game were to get out of hand star players such as Ja Morant and Anthony Davis could see reduced minutes. 

It's only late February. But this matchup has the makings of a playoff game with all the defensive intensity that comes with that.

New York has won five in a row. Boston is 9-2 in its last 11 games since losing, 120-117 in overtime, to the Knicks on the road a month ago. There were 220 points scored in regulation during that game.

Both teams are underrated defensively and have been playing well on the defensive end.

The Celtics are giving up an average of 104.3 points during their last nine games if you discount their overtime games. Boston ranks in the top-eight in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The Knicks have held their last seven opponents to an average of 105.1 points, not including their 126-120 win against the Jazz. New York ranks ninth in scoring defense and are in the top four in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

A hidden key to this Under is center Mitchell Robinson being back healthy for New York.

Robinson is a premier shot-blocker - the only shot-blocking threat the Knicks have - and New York's second-best rebounder. His presence strongly fortifies the Knicks' front-court defense.

Robinson has been back for two games now. In those two games, the Knicks held the Wizards to 109 points - which is four points below Washington's season scoring average - and the Pelicans to 106 points, which is eight points under New Orleans' season scoring average.

The Warriors are 23-7 at home. They are without Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins. They didn't need those two in their last home game, a 116-101, win against the Rockets this past Friday.

The Timberwolves are a step up from the lowly Rockets. But Minnesota isn't good enough on the road to pull off the upset here. The Timberwolves are 11-17 on the road. They have a key injury themselves with Karl-Anthony Towns out.

Golden State has won six of its past seven home games. The Warriors are primed to make a move down the stretch. I don't expect them to lose at home to a mediocre Timberwolves team.

The Heat are in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. They were embarrassed by the Bucks, 128-99, last night in Milwaukee.

Charlotte, on the other hand, is fat and happy having won three straight after beating the Timberwolves, 121-113, on the road last night.

Miami is the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 28th defensively allowing 10 more points per game than the Heat.

The Hornets usually fail to step up against better teams, too, with a 12-25 record versus above .500 opponents.

I want the Warriors going for me after they lost on the road to the Lakers last night in their first game back from All-Star break. Golden State is home where it has played far better with a 22-7 mark.

The Warriors also have the advantage of having had a game following All-Star break. Houston's last game was nine days ago.

The Rockets entered the break having lost seven in a row. Their last two games - both on the road - were a 19-point loss to the 76ers and a 37-point defeat to the Thunder.

Golden State is the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA at 118.5 points a game. The Rockets rank 26th defensively and 29th in scoring.

Stephen Curry remains out, but Houston is minus its two leading scorers, Kevin Porter Jr. (foot) and Jalen Green (groin).

Defense and a 7-23 road record have been the killers for Golden State. But the Warriors are home here and have made a commitment and priority to playing stronger defense having had ample time during the All-Star break. It's not like the Warriors aren't capable. They had the No. 2 defense last season.

These teams just met three games ago. The final in that one was Lakers, 109-103, for a total of 212 points.

I'm expecting another low-scoring game this time around, too.

The Warriors were the No. 2 ranked defense last season. Now they rank 27th defensively. They are due to start playing much defense. I see that starting now, following All-Star break, where intensity increases.

The Lakers are breaking in five new rotation players and no longer have Russell Westbrook, who was good for the Over. So they are in transition. They also draw the Warriors minus Stephen Curry.

Neither team has played in more than a week so there could be a rust factor, too.

The Mavericks are an auto-fade when laying these kinds of points. Dallas is a mind-boggling 4-20-1 ATS (17 percent) when favored by more than five points this season.

San Antonio nearly upset Dallas in the first meeting. The Spurs lost, 126-125, at home on Dec. 31.

The Spurs are on their rodeo trip, but will be rested following the week-long All-Star break. Gregg Popovich should have his team well prepared for this in-state, division rivalry matchup.

This will be just the third time Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic will be playing together. So the Mavericks aren't fully in sync yet with their new lineup.

The Bucks have won 11 in a row. The Bulls, by contrast, are reeling, losing and failing to cover in their last five games.

Milwaukee didn't play well in its last game, having to go to overtime at home to dispatch a short-handed Celtics squad. This is the Bucks' final game before the All-Star break. They won't play again in eight days. So expect a strong, focused effort from the Bucks, especially in revenge mode. The Bulls won the last meeting, 119-113 in overtime, on Dec. 29

That should ensure a double-digit Milwaukee victory. The Bulls also won't have their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan. He's out with a quad injury.

Brooklyn is ahead of Miami in the standings. But the Heat are the better team right now.

The Nets are going through a transformation with a retooled roster. Brooklyn won 27 of its first 40 games. Then Durant got hurt. Since then, the Net are 6-11.

Brooklyn has four new people in its rotation learning life without Durant and Kyrie Irving. while also finding out Ben Simmons is nearly worthless.

The Nets are averaging just 102 points in their last two games. Miami is the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA.

Expect a playoff type atmosphere - and playoff-like defense - when the Bucks host the Celtics. These are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference with the Celtics ahead of the Bucks by 1 1/2 games.

It's easy to think offense with these teams that feature superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum. Both teams, though, are very strong defensively and are in good defensive form.

Boston ranks sixth in scoring defense, seventh in defensive field goal percentage and ninth in 3-point defense. The Celtics have held their last six opponents to an average of 104.1 points. The Under has cashed 10 of the last 11 times the Celtics have been on the road taking on a foe with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Celtics have consistently gone Under away from home - 20-8-1 (71 percent) - during their past 29 away contests.

The Bucks rank seventh in scoring defense, second in defensive field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point defense. They have permitted just 106.6 points during their last three games. Milwaukee draws the Celtics when Boston is missing injured Jaylen Brown, its second-leading scorer at 26.5 points. The Celtics also could be down Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Smart leaving them thin in the backcourt.

Milwaukee hasn't played since beating the Clippers, 119-106, at LA this past Friday. So the Bucks could be rusty. They will be prepared, though, with this extended rest. Note that the Under has cashed the past six times the Bucks have played on three or more days of rest.

Kyrie Irving teaming up with Luka Doncic to make his Dallas home debut is the major storyline here.

What's not in the headlines is this being a dangerous spot for Dallas. The Mavericks last played at home 11 days ago. This marks their fourth game in six days and third game in four days. Irving is going to be a distraction. So the Mavericks' concentration level could be off.

Minnesota just got blown out, 128-107, by the Grizzlies this past Friday. This is the conclusion of the Timberwolves' four-game road trip. Minnesota had the weekend to rest up and prepare for this matchup. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Timberwolves, who are 6-0 ATS following a loss.

The Timberwolves upgraded themselves, too, at the trade deadline picking up veteran point guard Mike Conley.

Dallas has the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 22-34-2. The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when laying seven or more points.

It's strange to see a total this low on a Spurs game. You have to go back to Dec. 29 to find the last time there was this low of a total on a San Antonio game.

It's understandable, though, because the Spurs' opponent is Cleveland. The Cavaliers have the best defense in the league.

The Spurs have the worst defense in the NBA ranking last in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. San Antonio gives up an average of 122.8 points per game.

So why get involved in a total where you have the top defensive club versus the worst defensive team?

Because I see this matchup having garbage time written all over it. The Cavaliers are averaging 119 points in their last five games, discounting their last game against the Bulls.

Cleveland has a much bigger game on deck, playing at the 76ers on Wednesday before heading into the All-Star break. So the Cavaliers' starters could see reduced minutes, especially in a projected blowout.

The Spurs could take advantage of Cleveland's bench players to help this total go Over. The Over has cashed in 13 of San Antonio's past 17 road games.

The Hawks want to make a mark before All-Star break hits. The Hornets can't wait until the All-Star break.