This spot sets up for the home Knicks catching the Jazz playing for the fourth time in six days and without rest.

Utah upset the Raptors in Toronto last night. The Knicks also played last night - and blew a 12-point third-quarter lead in a 119-108 loss to the 76ers.

New York is 20-7-1 ATS the past 28 times when playing the second of back-to-back games.

Russell Westbrook may or may not make his debut for the retooled Jazz. It's a major transition for the Jazz if ball hog Westbrook is in the lineup.

The Knicks have a huge historical edge, too, when hosting Utah covering 13 of the last 17 times at home in the series.

Kyrie Irving is with the Mavericks now. I doubt Luka Doncic plays, though. He's been out with a bruised heel. But even if Doncic suits up, I still like the Kings to beat Dallas at home here. There's going to be a transition period for Irving and Doncic. I'm not convinced the two can effectively co-exist. 

The Kings have their own two stars - De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who leads the NBA in double/doubles. 

Dallas is playing its fourth road game in six days. The Mavericks are off consecutive upset victories against the Jazz and Clippers, both achieved minus Doncic. 

The Mavericks, however, are 8-20-1 ATS following a victory. They also have the worst ATS mark in the NBA despite those two wins at 21-33-2 and are six games below .500 on the road.

The Kings are 16-11 at home. They have the sixth-best ATS record in the league at 29-24-1 and are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times hosting Dallas. 

Even with key players out, you can't fault the Celtics if they overlook Charlotte. The Hornets have lost five in a row. The Celtics are off a highly-satisfying home victory against the 76ers this past Wednesday, beating Philadelphia while playing shorthanded. After this game, the Celtics host the Grizzlies on Sunday and then play at the Bucks on Tuesday.

So it's not an ideal situational spot for the Celtics to be highly motivated for this weak opponent.

The Hornets, though, have triple revenge. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS the last six times they've hosted a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

Boston also is going to be without All-Star Jaylen Brown and ace defender Marcus Smart. The Celtics also could be minus Jayson Tatum. He's questionable with a non-COVID illness.

The 76ers are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of two in a row. Both of those losses came on the road - to the Knicks this past Sunday and to the Celtics two days ago. The 76ers blew an early 21-point lead against New York and did not play well versus Boston.

Now, though, the 76ers are back home where they are 20-8. Philadelphia has covered 17 of its past 23 (74 percent) home contests.

I trust the 76ers to get the job down at home against a foe they are at least one level higher than.

The Lakers have had some great teams. This isn't one of them. Acquiring D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt while getting rid of Russell Westbrook should help the Lakers. Just not right now for this matchup.

The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games, including the past eight, in compiling the third-best record in the NBA at 37-17. The Bucks also have the fourth-best mark against the spread mark (ATS) at 29-23-2. They rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Milwaukee's Big Three of Giannis Antetokounmpo - solidly in the MVP running - Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are all healthy. The Bucks are well-rested, too, following their 127-108 road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Monday.

The Lakers are always going to get respect from the oddsmaker because they are such a public team and have superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. James broke the NBA's all-time scoring record two days ago at home. That drew the headlines. Oh, yeah, the Lakers lost that game to the Thunder as a 6 1/2-point favorite.

LA surrendered 133 points to the Thunder. Lack of defense has been a problem all season for the Lakers, who rank 28th in scoring defense permitting 118.6 points a game.

Davis has returned from a foot injury. But he hasn't sparked anything while playing second fiddle to James. LA is 3-4 in seven games since Davis has been back.

I find this another case of the Lakers getting too much respect on the line. They didn't make the playoffs last season. They aren't on track to make the postseason this season with a 25-30 record that puts them 13th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference.

The Lakers' ATS mark is similar to their won-lost record at 25-29-1. They are merely a .500 team at home.

LA doesn't have a good record either when stepping up in competition going 8-18-1 ATS the past 27 times versus above .500 opponents.

Milwaukee has revenge motivation for a 133-129 home loss to the Lakers on Dec. 2. The Bucks have covered in four of their last five road games against the Lakers.

Maybe I should drink some sake because I feel like a kamikaze pilot attacking a Kings-Rockets total by going Under. 

Sacramento just beat Houston, 140-120, on the road this past Monday. Now the Rockets host the Kings again in the rematch. 

The Kings lead the NBA in scoring at 119.3 points per game. So why go Under? 

I see the Rockets going all out defensively following that embarrassment and with Houston coach Stephen Silas ripping his team and questioning their defensive effort and intensity. Silas was understandably livid after that humiliation. 

The Kings shot 58.4 percent from the floor in that 20-point victory. The Rockets aren't that bad ranking 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Sacramento also made 21 of 41 3-pointers in that game for 51 percent. Sacramento shoots 36.8 percent from 3-point range.

Believe it or not, the Under has cashed in 20 of the Kings' last 28 away games. 

Sacramento is below average defensively ranking 21st, which isn't horrible. But keep in mind the Rockets rank 29th in scoring and last in field goal percentage. They have gone Under six of the past eight times following a double-digit home loss. 

Due to playing the Timberwolves at Minnesota on less than 24 hours rest this past Sunday, the Nuggets held out a number of key players, including Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.

The result was a 128-98 Timberwolves' victory. Welcome to today's NBA where teams combat unfair schedule spots by resting their best players, thus conceding the game before it even begins. The Nuggets had just beaten the Hawks this past Saturday night for their third straight win before deciding to give up against Minnesota the following day.

This sets up a day of reckoning for the Timberwolves here. And I like the Nuggets, who will be back to full strength, to exact vengeance.

Denver is 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a loss.

The Timberwolves now are facing a fatigue factor - playing for the seven time in 12 days and third in five days - while missing players. Minnesota is minus injured Karl-Anthony Towns and suspended Austin Rivers. Kyle Anderson could be out, too, with a back injury. He's missed the last two games.

I don't like laying points with the Mavericks. I do like them as an underdog, though, even when they don't have superstar Luka Doncic.

That's the case again in this matchup.

The teams just met on Jan. 28 in Salt Lake City. The Mavericks didn't have Doncic and lost, 108-100, in that game. The Mavericks were plus 7 1/12 in that matchup. So they just missed covering. Dallas had covered the previous five times on the road against the Jazz.

Now the Mavericks are getting close to double-digits. They won't have Kyrie Irving yet, but their rotation players should be highly motivated to produce knowing their roles could change with the expected arrival of Irving. 

Dallas has had good success versus Utah covering 10 of the last 13 times. 

The Bulls are laying the most points they have all season. I don't see the spot setting up well enough for them to cover.

Chicago is fat and happy having won two in a row, both at home. The Bulls rallied from 17 points down to defeat the Trail Blazers, 129-121, this past Saturday. This marks Chicago's third game in five days. The Bulls have a much more challenging matchup on Tuesday when they meet the Grizzlies in Memphis. So there's no need for them to go all out against the lowly Spurs. 

Overconfidence could factor against the Bulls, too. San Antonio has lost eight in a row. This is the start of the Spurs' annual rodeo trip. They've been idle since Friday. 

The Spurs are capable of beating the Bulls. They proved that with a 129-124 win back on Oct. 28 during the first meeting this season. San Antonio has covered five of the last six times versus the Bulls.

The Wizards have blown 20-plus point leads in each of their last two games. So they should be extremely focused for this matchup. They catch the Cavaliers playing without rest after Cleveland defeated the Pacers, 122-103, on Sunday. 

This is important. So are the Wizards owning a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games versus opponents who are above .500 at home. Cleveland also is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times when playing on zero rest and 2-7 ATS following a win. The Cavaliers are 6-14-2 ATS in their past 22 road games. 

That's a lot of trends lining up against the Cavaliers.

Bradley Beal should play for the Wizards after missing their last game this past Saturday due to a foot injury. He participated in the Wizards' shootaround this morning. 

I want the Grizzlies going for me at home in this spot. The Grizzlies are in an ornery mood following a 128-113 road loss to the Cavaliers. Dillon Brooks was suspended for this game because of his cheap shot actions against Donovan Mitchell in that loss to Cleveland.

The Grizzlies don't see it that way. They believe the NBA is against them. Memphis has won eight of its last nine home games and are expected to get back center Jaren Jackson, who missed the Cavaliers game due to a thigh bruise. That's huge because Memphis remains without Steven Adams.

Toronto concludes its seven-game, 12-day road journey here. The Raptors just beat the Rockets, 117-111, two days ago. The fatigue factor on the Raptors is high.

The Raptors are 2-6 ATS the past eight times when playing an opponent with a winning home record. The Grizzlies are 36-15-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 52 home contests.

The Bucks and their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, are playing extremely well with six consecutive victories. But Milwaukee has trouble with Miami. The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks. I see another close game here.

Only twice in their last 21 games have the Heat lost by more than five points.

Miami has the No. 2 defense in the NBA giving up 108.1 points. The Heat are 5-1 ATS the past six times on the road when going against a foe with a home winning percentage better than .600.

The Bucks still might be breathing a sigh of relief after a huge come-from-behind national TV win against the Clippers this past Thursday. Milwaukee pulled the game out, 106-105, by scoring the final seven points of the game.

Even with that win, Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times versus opponents with a winning record.

The Heat have covered the past four times against the Bucks, including posting 108-102 and 111-95 home victories on Jan. 12 and Jan. 14. Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, who is back healthy, didn't play in those games. Still, the Heat play the Bucks physically, tough and with confidence. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Heat pull out the outright win.

The Pacers are an underrated home team with a 16-11 record. They have covered eight of their past 11 home contests.

Indiana has revenge for an embarrassing 23-point road loss to the Kings on Nov. 30. The Pacers also have back their best all-around player, Tyrese Haliburton. He played last night scoring 26 points and dishing off 12 assists against the Lakers after missing the previous 10 games.

The Pacers blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead to the Lakers in that loss. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers' previous game before the Lakers was back on Sunday. So there should not be a fatigue factor.

Sacramento will be missing its star guard and leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox. He's out for personal reasons. This will be the Kings' first game without him since Dec. 11. So there will be an adjustment factor.

These teams aren't as bad defensively as perceived.

The Kings are giving up an average of 108.4 points during their last five games, all of which have gone Under. The Pacers have surrendered 112 points, or fewer, in four of their last six games.

Sacramento will be minus its leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox. He's out for personal reasons. Fox also is No. 2 on the team in assists. It's a big blow for the Kings not to have him.

The Under has cashed 14 of the last 17 times the Kings have been on the road against a foe with an above .500 home record.

The Under has also cashed four of the last five times Indiana has hosted Sacramento.

The Pelicans are in full stop-the-pain mode, losers of nine in a row. Except for Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are finally healthy now. Brandon Ingram should have the rust off having played in the past three games following a 29-game absence because of a toe injury.

New Orleans is stepping down in class after having played the Bucks this past Sunday and Nuggets two days ago.

The Mavericks aren't fully healthy either minus Maxi Kleber and Christian Wood, their second-leading scorer at 18.4 points per game.

Dallas is coming off a victory against the Pistons and has a bigger matchup on deck facing the Warriors on Saturday. The Mavericks are 5-20-1 ATS following a win. They also have been terrible when laying three or more points going 7-20-1 ATS in that role.

The Thunder should play with defensive intensity having lost six in a row, including giving up 128 points to the Warriors at home this past Monday. Oklahoma City ranks sixth in defensive field goal percentage.

Houston is minus its leading scorer, Jalen Green (calf), and top assists guy Kevin Porter Jr. (foot).

The Rockets have been playing better defense lately holding their last five foes to an average of 112.4 points. This is down from their season average of giving up 117.1 points a game.

There were 223 points scored in the first meeting with the Rockets winning, 118-105, back on Nov. 26. It marked the sixth time in seven meetings the teams had gone Under when playing in Houston.

The Clippers were riding a season-best five-game win streak going into their last game. That streak came to a crashing halt with a 122-99 road loss to the Cavaliers two days ago. The Clippers didn't play well in that game. They also chose to sit out superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George along with point guard Reggie Jackson.

I don't care so much about Jackson, who is questionable with a sore Achilles, but Leonard and George aren't on the injury report. Both are expected to play. That's good enough for me to get involved with the Clippers against an inconsistent 23-26 Bulls squad that isn't in a great situational spot. It's Chicago's first home game in a week. The Bulls have been on the road for their past three games.

Leonard and George are playing at high levels. Leonard is averaging 30.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.4 steals during his last five games. George is averaging 24.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.2 steals in his last five games.

The Clippers have covered eight of the past 11 times when playing a below .500 opponent.

The Bulls have a huge revenge game up next hosting the Hornets on Thursday. Charlotte upset the Bulls in embarrassing fashion, 111-96, this past Thursday in Charlotte.

Despite two consecutive losses, Orlando has been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 19 of its last 26 games for 73 percent.

The 76ers have won seven in a row with the last two of their victories coming against the Nets and Nuggets this past Saturday. That's highly satisfying. Joel Embiid sparked the 76ers in that victory with 47 points and 18 rebounds in the 126-119 win.

I see this as a flat spot for the 76ers. So much of a flat spot that there is the possibility they would rest Embiid, who has been dealing with left foot soreness.

Even if Embiid plays, I believe the spunky Magic will hang in. They haven't lost three in a row since late December. Orlando is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times when getting points and is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when playing on one day rest.

The Mavericks defeated the Suns on the road two days ago without Luka Doncic for most of the game and they can keep this game close minus Doncic.

Dallas has won the past two times as an underdog defeating Phoenix and Miami eight days ago.

Dallas has covered 10 of the last 12 times versus the Jazz, including the past five times in Utah.

The defending world champion Warriors are a disappointing 24-24. Golden State, though, is 18-6 at home. The Warriors will be highly motivated to defeat Toronto at home tonight. They still haven't forgotten the Raptors beating them to win the 2019 championship. 

Golden State also goes on the road for its next three games following this matchup. 

Toronto is 7-15 away from home. The Raptors are 6-14 ATS playing at Golden State. Toronto is fat and happy after an impressive, 113-95, win against the hot Kings this past Wednesday. 

The Raptors have won two straight. Only once this season have they posted three consecutive victories. 

Since Dec. 28, the Bulls have beaten many teams much better than the Hornets. The list includes the Bucks, Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. Chicago was riding a three-game winning and covering streak going into this past Tuesday's game against Indiana.

The Pacers were minus Tyrese Haliburton, their best all-around player, and had lost seven in a row. The Bulls built a 21-point lead and looked in full control. But the Pacers stunned the Bulls by scoring 70 points in the second half to win, 116-110.

Chicago has a chance for redemption now playing the Hornets. Not only are the Hornets terrible - with the third-worst record in the NBA at 13-36 - but they are banged-up and in a bad situational spot.

Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin are out for Charlotte. LaMelo Ball missed Charlotte's last game because of an ankle injury. He's questionable as is Gordon Hayward, who has a groin injury. Ball is the Hornets' leading scorer and top assists man. Oubre is the team's No. 3 scorer. Hayward ranks fifth on the team in scoring. Martin is a reliable rotation player.

The Hornets are 5-16 at home. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games.

Charlotte ranks 28th defensively giving up 119.1 points per game. That figure climbs to 123.8 points going by their last eight games. The Bulls rank fifth in the NBA in field goal percentage and free throw percentage.

The spot isn't good either for the Hornets. They just returned from a four-game, seven-day road trip that concluded Tuesday night in Phoenix with a 31-point loss to the Suns. Charlotte has lost and failed to cover during its past five home games.

Center Rudy Gobert may be the best defensive front-court player in the NBA. His presence makes a difference. And he's back for Minnesota.

Given that plus the situation and the Pelicans ranking No. 1 in 3-point defensive field goal percentage, I'm going Under this total.

The Timberwolves are off an embarrassing 119-114 loss to the Rockets, who had lost 13 straight losses entering the matchup. Gobert returned after missing the previous three games due to a groin injury. He had 16 rebounds and four blocks. But the Timberwolves ran into a sizzling Jalen Green, who scored 42 points on 15-of-25 shooting from the floor. Minnesota coach Chris Finch ripped his team following the loss for their lack of focus.

The Pelicans showed a lot of defensive heart holding the Nuggets to a season-low 36 points in the second half last night. The Pelicans lost, 99-98, though, despite holding the Nuggets to 18 points under their season average. The Pelicans should be up for another strong defensive effort being home while not looking to push tempo playing without rest.

I understand why this total is being bet up. Both teams are offensive-minded and haven't been playing very good defense. 

But there are situational elements that favor the Under. The Hawks are in action for the third time in four days. Their last game was a track meet against the Hornets. I don't expect a fast pace. The Bulls just returned from beating the Pistons in Paris this past Thursday. So they might not have their legs due to jet lag. 

These Eastern Conference teams know each other well. This is their third meeting of the season. There were 218 points scored when the Bulls won, 110-108, on Dec. 22 the last time they played. There were 220 points scored in regulation during the first meeting, which went into overtime. Now look where the total sits. 

Boston is hot, winners of nine in a row. The Celtics also are banged-up and in a flat spot. Boston has a bigger game on Tuesday playing the Heat in Miami.

The Celtics won't have Jayson Tatum today. They aren't likely to have Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III either. Both were injured in the Celtics' 106-104 road victory at Toronto this past Saturday. That was a gutty win for the Celtics. Boston loses a lot of defense without Smart and Williams. 

The Magic should be motivated after giving up a season-high 138 points to the Wizards in a 20-point road loss to the Wizards two days ago. The Magic lacked energy in that game having beaten the Pelicans at home the night before. They should be far more physical in this matchup. 

Until that loss to the Wizards, the Magic were flying below the radar going 12-8 SU, 15-5 ATS pulling off straight-up underdog victories against the Celtics, Raptors, Warriors, Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Clippers. 

Sure it's a huge plus if Giannis Antetokounmpo can play having been out with knee soreness. But I see the motivated Bucks rolling past the Pistons even if Antetokounmpo can't go.

Milwaukee is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three of its last five games, including 114-102 to the Cavaliers this past Saturday. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS following a non-cover.

The Pistons are the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They are 1-6 in their last seven games. Detroit has lost by 12 or more points in seven of its last eight defeats.

There's also a situational factor working against Detroit. The Pistons just played in Paris this past Thursday where they were blown out by the Bulls, 126-108. So jet lag and concentration could be issues.

From a historical perspective the Bucks have dominated this series winning 15 of the last 16 times. Milwaukee is 2-0 versus Detroit this season with wins by two points and 25 points. Both of those victories were in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times meeting the Pistons in Detroit.

Kudos to the Suns for beating the Nets and Pacers during their last two games despite having multiple injuries to key players. However, I don't see the Suns winning a third straight game minus so many players against an angry Grizzlies squad.

Memphis had its 11-game win streak halted by the Lakers on Friday night, 122-121. The Grizzlies blew a 13-point second-half lead.

Until defeating the Pacers - who shot 37.5 percent from the floor against Phoenix and were missing their leading scorer, Tyrese Haliburton - the Suns had lost nine of 10. The Suns are without Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton - their three best players - along with Cam Johnson and guards Cam Payne and Landry Shamet.

The Grizzlies hosted the Suns three games ago and buried Phoenix, 136-106, six days ago.

The Raptors will be stressing defense after blowing an 18-point lead in a 128-126 loss to the Timberwolves this past Thursday. They catch Boston minus Jayson Tatum, who will sit out because of a sore wrist.

The Celtics rank in the top-seven in defensive efficiency since big man Robert Williams returned. The Celtics won't be playing fast after a tiring, 121-118, come-from-behind overtime win against the Warriors two days ago.

The Raptors play at a slow pace, too. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times the Raptors have hosted Boston.

The Pelicans should be highly motivated to beat the Magic after an embarrassing, 124-98, home loss to the Heat this past Wednesday. 

The 16-28 Magic are playing their first home game in more than two weeks after concluding a five-game road trip that finished this past Sunday with a 119-116 loss to the Nuggets. Being idle for five days is being off for too long. So I don't expect the Magic to be sharp. 

New Orleans is at its best against bad team teams. The Pelicans are 19-7-1 (73 percent) ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. They have covered the past five times against sub .500 opponents. 

The Pelicans are the superior team even without injured Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram and this spot sets up well for them. 

The 76ers are 3-0 on their five-game Western Conference road swing and playing well. But I see them getting tripped up by the Trail Blazers here. It's Philadelphia's fourth game in six days. The 76ers have failed to cover a spread during their last six games in Portland. 

The Trail Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games. Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games when facing an opponent that has a winning home record. 

Portland is playing well, too. The Trail Blazers won and covered both of their home games against the Mavericks this past Saturday and Sunday. They then played the Nuggets tough in Denver two days ago in a loss that had a misleading final score. 

Look for Portland to bounce back being home again catching the 76ers fat and happy. 

The Nets must prove they can win without Kevin Durant. Or at least beat bottom-feeders. This is their chance.

I see the Nets being highly motivated in this matchup against the Spurs, who are 1-8 in their last nine games, including losing five in a row.

Brooklyn had won 14 of 15 games. But then superstar Durant went down with a knee injury and the Nets lost to the Celtics - no shame in that - and then suffered an upsetting, 112-102, home loss to the Thunder this past Sunday. Ben Simmons didn't play in the loss to the Thunder because of back pain.

Simmons has been cleared to play in this game, which is a boost to the Nets' shrinking rotation. Not only do the Nets want to redeem themselves for losing to the Thunder, but this also is the start of a five-game road trip consisting of games against the Suns, Jazz, Warriors and 76ers. Brooklyn doesn't want to start out with a loss to the 13-31 Spurs. So the Nets should be focused.

The Nets give up 11 fewer points per game than San Antonio, which ranks last in all of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Spurs' defense has been especially bad lately. The Spurs are surrendering an average of 130.6 points during their last five games.

The Nets have covered five of the last six games in this series.

Aside from Cleveland being the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA giving up an average of 107 points a game, there are strong situational reasons why I like this game to go Under.

New Orleans is playing its fifth consecutive road game. It's the first and only time this season the Pelicans will be playing a fifth straight away game. Cleveland just concluded a five-game, 10-day road swing this past Saturday night. The Cavaliers had to go through three different time zones during this time.

On top of these fatigue factors is this is an early-start Martin Luther King Day matinee game. So I'm certainly not expecting either team to push pace.

The Pelicans are missing two of their three best offensive players with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram out with injuries. The Pelicans have relied on 7-foot center Jonas Valanciunas to pick up the scoring. But Valanciunas is going to find it difficult against Cleveland's defensive-minded big men Eric Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Those two have been instrumental in Cleveland ranking No. 1 in defensive rebounding.

Donovan Mitchell easily paces the Cavaliers in scoring at 28.8 points per game. Mitchell, however, has been dealing with illness. He was just 5-for-16 shooting from the floor in the Cavaliers' 110-102 loss to the Timberwolves this past Saturday. The Pelicans are a middle-of-the-road defensive team. Their defensive strength is 3-point defense where they rank No. 2. So I'm not expecting Mitchell to go off. He missed seven of nine 3-point shots against Minnesota.

Look, I like the Grizzlies. But I don't like them enough to lay this many points in a flat spot against a good home team such as the Pacers.

The line is high - inflated in my view - because Indiana is without point guard Tyrese Haliburton and center Myles Turner. There's a chance, though, the Pacers get back forward Aaron Nesmith, who has missed the last two games due to illness. I also like the Pacers' younger players, particularly Bennedict Mathurin. I believe they will step up given the opportunity.

The Grizzlies aren't 100 percent healthy either with Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke both questionable.

Memphis has won eight in a row. However, the Grizzlies' last five victories were against the Spurs twice, slumping Jazz, Magic and Hornets. Memphis has failed to cover its last three games and has a bigger game on deck at home in revenge mode against the Suns.

The Pacers are 15-8 at home, including 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven home contests. They are off a tough, 113-111, home loss last night to the Hawks, who scored the winning basket with less than a second left.

Indiana is 21-8 ATS when playing on zero rest. Memphis is 2-8 ATS the last 10 times on the road when playing an opponent with an above .500 home mark.

This is only the third time the Kings are laying more than 9 points. They are 0-2 ATS the previous two times. 

The Rockets are a bottom feeder, but they shouldn't lack motivation in a rapid revenge spot. The Kings beat Houston, 135-115, two days ago at home. That score was misleading, though. The Rockets led with 8:44 to go before the Kings scored 26 of the final 37 points. The Kings were aided by getting 14 more free throw attempts than the Rockets.

Houston lost point guard Kevin Porter Jr. just 10 minutes into the game with a bruised foot. It's a plus if he can play today. If not, the Rockets won't go in unprepared to not having him. 

Sacramento has failed to cover in six of its last eight home games. 

This is my Game of the Week.

The Pistons are off a 135-118 win against the Timberwolves on Wednesday. Detroit hasn't won consecutive games since Nov. 22-23. I don't see the Pistons doing that here.

Each of the Pistons' last nine losses were by double-digits. 

New Orleans is 7-5 in its last 12 games. However, all five of the losses during this span were to good teams. 

The Pelicans are several tiers better than the Pistons, which makes this point spread too small. Yes, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain out for the Pelicans. However, the Pistons also have injuries and their rotation isn't as talented as New Orleans is. Detroit has been without frontcourt players Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart. 

The Thunder have been double-digit underdogs four times this season - and covered each time Oklahoma City has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 25-16 for 61 percent.

Oklahoma City has short revenge for a 115-96 home loss suffered to the 76ers on New Year's Eve.

The Thunder have thrived in these spots going 19-8 in their last 27 (70 percent) away games when taking on an opponent with a winning home record.

The 76ers are a bit fat and happy off consecutive easy victories against the Pistons. The Thunder are off a frustrating, 112-111, road loss to the Heat from Tuesday. Miami won by making all 40 of its free throws. It was the third straight game the Thunder have covered and fourth in their last five.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are playing at high levels. They can keep the Thunder in this game.

I'm going to fade the injury-ravaged Suns following their huge upset win against the Warriors last night at Golden State. 

Phoenix stunned the Warriors despite missing Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Cam Johnson, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne. Before that game, the Suns had lost nine of 10, including six in a row. 

The Nuggets are rolling, winning their last three games by an average of 19 points with all three victories coming by at least 13 points. 

Denver has held its last three foes to an average of 102.6 points. 

The spot is right for the Heat to cover this number. Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games. The only bad loss the Heat have during this span is to the Lakers on the road by three points. The other two defeats were to the 27-13 Nuggets on the road by five points and at home to the sizzling Nets by one point this past Sunday. 

There is no way Miami overlooks Oklahoma City, which is four games below .500. Not only have the Thunder won two in a row, but the Heat's next two games are both against the Bucks. So the Heat can not afford a home defeat to this lowly opponent.  

This is only the Thunder's third road matchup in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City is fat and happy having won its last two games, both at home against the Wizards and Mavericks, who were missing superstar Luka Doncic, two days ago. 

The Thunder have lost their last four road contests - falling to the Magic by 11, Hornets by 8, Cavaliers by 7 and Grizzlies by 21 for an average away loss of 11.7 points. 

Oklahoma City is 13-9 at home, but 5-13 on the road. 

The Knicks are fat and happy, winners of four in a row. Note that two of those four victories were achieved against bottom-feeders San Antonio and Houston.

New York is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.

The Bucks have had all weekend to reflect about a shocking, 138-109, home loss to the lowly Hornets this past Friday. Giannis Antetokounmpo was held to a season-low nine points.

I see Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee bouncing back here. The Bucks are 4-1-1 ATS in their six visits to Madison Square Garden.

I respect the Grizzlies and they are hot with five straight wins. Utah is off a disappointing road loss to the Bulls last night.

However, I see this as too many points for the Grizzlies to be laying. They were on the road for their last two games, having last played this past Thursday. I question their motivation and concentration being fat and happy right now.

Utah is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Jazz, though, haven't lost any of those six games by more than eight points. They are 8-1 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a winning percentage above .600.

Utah also is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games against the Grizzlies, including winning and covering both matchups earlier this season. Those games were back in October so this isn't a huge revenge spot for Memphis.

Surprised the spread is so low here? Don't be. The Bulls are in a tough situational spot. Chicago just ended the 76ers' 11-game home win streak, beating Philadelphia, 126-112, on Friday night. The 76ers were minus injured Joel Embiid.

The Bulls also ended the Nets' 12-game win streak with a 121-112 win this past Wednesday.

Back-to-back impressive victories for the Bulls. But now they fly back to Chicago where they'll have the rested Jazz awaiting them.

The Jazz halted a five-game losing streak by rolling past the Rockets, 131-114, on the road this past Thursday. Utah had lost its previous five games by an average of three points with the five defeats occurring by a combined 15 points.

Lauri Markkanen scored a career-high 49 points to lead Utah past Houston. Now Markkanen faces his former team. The Bulls are not only playing without rest, but this is their third game in four days and fourth game in six days.

The Bulls are reliant on their 3-point shooting. Zach LaVine hit 11 of 13 3-pointers against the 76ers. Utah, though, ranks in the top-10 in 3-point defense.

Kudos to the Pistons for upsetting the Warriors, 122-119, on a 3-point buzzer-beater by Saddiq Bey on Wednesday. I don't see the Pistons following that big win with another victory, though. Only once all season have the Pistons won consecutive games and that was back on Nov. 22-23. 

This marks Detroit's fifth road game in eight days. 

The Spurs return home after losing, 117-114, to the Knicks two days ago at Madison Square Garden. The Spurs are 2-1 in their last three home games beating the Jazz and Knicks while losing to the Mavericks by one point.

The Pistons have failed to cover during their last four visits to San Antonio. 

It's easy to think offense about the Memphis Grizzlies because of star guard Ja Morant. But the Grizzlies are a strong defensive team. They give up the seventh-fewest points per game in the NBA and rank first in defensive field goal percentage. Memphis has gone Under in seven of its last eight games.

The Grizzlies have allowed just 105.5 points per game during their last four games.

Orlando ranks 27th in scoring. The Magic have had their rotation messed up, too, in their last couple of games because of multiple suspensions stemming from an altercation against the Pistons last Thursday.

Both teams played and won last night with the Grizzlies burying the Hornets by 24 points on the road and the Magic defeating the Thunder by 11 as a one-point home 'dog. So I'm not expecting a fast tempo. The Magic are below average in terms of pace.

The Magic are the best defensive team the Grizzlies have faced during their past couple games. Memphis is off games against the Kings, who rank 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and Hornets, who rank 28th in scoring defense.

Orlando relies heavily on Paolo Banchero, its leading scorer. The Grizzlies have a number of good defenders - Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams - who can bother Banchero.

The Hawks are in stop-the-pain mode. They've lost four in a row. Two of those losses were in heart-breaking fashion. One was a double overtime road loss to the Warriors in their last game played two days ago. The other was a one-point loss to the sizzling Nets. 

The Kings return to Sacramento off a 117-115 road win against the Jazz on Tuesday night, scoring the winning basket with 0.4 seconds to play. 
Sacramento's concentration may be off along with a letdown factor following last night's narrow victory. The Kings haven't been home since Dec. 30. This marks their third game in four days and they are coming from Utah's high altitude. It's also the Kings' sixth game in nine days so there is a fatigue factor against them. 

The Kings have failed to cover in their last four home games. The Hawks have won the last three meetings between the two teams, including scoring a 115-106 home win on Nov. 23. 

The teams just met this past Friday in Sacramento. The Kings won, 126-125, for a combined total of 251. So why now go Under in the rematch?

The shooting in that Friday game was unbelievable. The Jazz shot 55 percent from the floor and made 25 of 30 free throws. The Kings shot 56 percent from the field while making 12 of 30 3-pointers.

Both defenses are below average. Neither, though, is bottom-six. I expect adjustments to be made following that game five days ago. Kings coach Mike Brown has a respected defensive mind.

The Jazz rank eighth in 3-point defense. So I don't expect the Kings to make 40 percent of their 3-pointers like they did Friday.

The Under has cashed in five of the Kings' last six road games. This is Sacramento's fifth game in eight days and is being played in Utah's high altitude. So I don't believe the Kings will be that up-tempo.

The teams just met this past Saturday night in Chicago. The Bulls were 5-1 in their last six games heading into that matchup while the Cavaliers had lost three in a row. The Cavaliers held off the Bulls, 103-102, despite not having Evan Mobley and Darius Garland. Donovan Mitchell had an off-game shooting 5-of-16 from the floor.

Yet Cleveland still won.

I like the Cavaliers to cover this margin even if they are missing Mobley and Garland again. It's a bonus if either of them plays. Mitchell should shoot a lot better, too.

The difference is defense. The Cavaliers are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA holding foes to 106.2 points. The Bulls rank 18th giving up 114.8 points a game.

The Cavaliers have been big money-makers at home going 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home contests.

The Cavaliers have lost three in a row - just surrendering a season-high 135 points to the Pacers this past Thursday - and aren't likely to have Darius Garland. The Bulls are playing their best ball winning five of their last six games. 

Yet the Bulls are home 'dogs to the Cavaliers? What gives?

It's the NBA where things on the surface don't always make sense. The oddsmaker knows what he's doing. So I'm on the Cavaliers, who are in obvious stop-the-pain mode. 

The Cavaliers' two other losses during their losing streak were against the Raptors and sizzling Nets. They remain the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. Cleveland is giving up nearly nine fewer points per game than Chicago. 

The Cavaliers buried the Bulls, 128-96, in Chicago without Garland back on Oct. 22. The Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. They also carry a higher fatigue rating than the Cavaliers being in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days.

It's not just the playoffs. There is plenty of zig and zag to the regular season, too. I see that playing out in this matchup where the Jazz are in stop-the-pain mode while the Kings are fat and happy after beating the Nuggets, the top team in the Western Conference, at home this past Wednesday. The Kings nipped the Nuggets, 127-126, scoring the winning point with less than a second left.

The Jazz are 0-2 on their current road trip, which concludes with this game. Utah entered this road trip going 4-2 with its only losses during this span coming on the road to the Bucks and Cavaliers.

However, Utah then was upset by the Spurs and Warriors two days ago. The Jazz blew a double-digit lead to the Warriors by scoring just 13 points in the fourth quarter. The Warriors were minus Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins.

The Jazz should be motivated and ready for this matchup not wanting to go 0-3 on this road trip. They have covered during their last four visits to Sacramento and also are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus the Kings.

So what do the Mavericks and Luka Doncic do for an encore after coming from nine points down with 33 seconds left in regulation to beat the Knicks in overtime with Doncic producing 60 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists?

The answer is they don't have an encore. Instead the Mavericks suffer a massive letdown hosting the Rockets, who have the worst record in the Western Conference.

It's going to be difficult for the Mavericks to come down from the high of that improbable victory against the Knicks on Tuesday and Doncic's historic night. Prior to that game, teams trailing by nine points with under 35 seconds left were 0-13,884 during the last 20 years, according to research compiled by ESPN Stats and Info.

The Mavericks have been terrible as mid-sized-to-big favorites. They are 3-15-1 ATS when laying 5 or more points. They also are 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 times against sub .500 foes.

The Rockets are capable of springing upsets. They have defeated the Bucks, Suns and Bulls during their last nine games. Houston shouldn't lack motivation after getting buried by the Celtics in their last games two days ago.

Houston has covered in four of its last five visits to Dallas.

The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row. I see the Bucks ending that losing streak against the Bulls whether they have Khris Middleton back in the lineup or not.

The Bucks dominate the Bulls especially in Chicago where they have covered 14 of the last 17 times.

The Bulls have lost their last three home games falling to the Rockets by 15, Knicks by 23 and Knicks by eight in overtime.

Expect the Clippers' starters to play much better after their bench rallied them to an overtime victory against the Pistons in Detroit last night. It was an improbable victory for the Clippers. They trailed, 126-112, with 3:34 left when Clippers coach Tyronn Lue pulled his starters. But the Clippers' second-unit rallied them, bailing out the starters.

The Clippers didn't have Kawhi Leonard in that game. Leonard is expected to play here. That should make a big difference, too.

The Raptors could have some holiday rust on them. They completed a tough, three-game road trip by defeating the Cavaliers, 118-107, this past Friday. The Raptors had halted the Knicks' eight-game win streak in their previous game. Toronto has been idle the past three days.

Toronto has failed to cover in four of its last five home games.

I don't see Kwahi Leonard and Paul George allowing the Clippers to lose to the Pistons. LA was on a 5-1 SU and ATS run until its last game - a 119-114 loss to the hot 76ers on the road. The Clippers blew a 20-point lead.

Now the Clippers are stepping way down in class. Detroit has the worst record in the NBA. The Pistons have lost five in a row. The Pistons have lost by six or more points in 13 of their last 14 losses. The Clippers should maintain their full intensity after blowing a 20-point lead in their last game.

The Clippers are 11-4 ATS the past 15 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400.

The Clippers rank No. 3 on defense. They give up 10 points fewer per game than the Pistons, who rank 29th defensively.

A division early start time Christmas Day matchup should result in less scoring than projected here.

It's tough for the players to play on Christmas Day having been with family and friends the night before. This is especially so when the game is very early in the day like this one is. The 76ers give up the second-fewest points per game and rank No. 1 in 3-point defense. New York ranks No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage.

The teams met in Philadelphia on Nov. 4 and the Knicks won, 106-104. That was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Under won.

The Knicks should be stressing defense at home following losses to the Raptors and Bulls. The Under has cashed in eight of the Knicks' last 11 games.

The 76ers have been an Under machine when going against above .500 opponents. The Under is 14-2 during those past 16 instances.

The Knicks are 2-0 versus the Bulls during the last 10 days. I see New York beating Chicago again.

The Knicks had their eight-game win and covering streak snapped, 113-106, to the Raptors on Wednesday. New York has been playing extremely well and has a far superior defense to the Bulls.

Chicago has won two in a row upsetting the Heat and Hawks on the road this past Tuesday and Wednesday. The Bulls have not won three in a row all season. This marks their fourth road game in six days. They are 8-22-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest and also 1-5 ATS during their last six visits to Madison Square Garden.

The Spurs are playing well going 4-2. The Pelicans are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games. New Orleans has been playing terrible defense, surrendering an average of 120.6 points during their last six games. 

The Pelicans will be without their two best players, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. 

So at this high of a spread, I'll take a shot on San Antonio. 

There are a lot of highs and lows to the long NBA season. Orlando has been playing well. Houston not. But the timing sets up here for the Rockets.

The Rockets are deep into a seven-game homestand. They have shot poorly in double-digit losses to the Trail Blazers and Spurs in their last two games. The Rockets should be primed for a much better effort, while the Magic are in letdown mode after their highly-surprising six-game win streak was halted in tough fashion by the Hawks two days ago, 126-125, on two free throws with 1.3 seconds left. 

The Magic had upset the Celtics twice on the road before losing to the Hawks, a team they had beaten three games ago. The Magic are dealing with rotation injuries. They also lost to the Rockets at home, 134-127, early last month. 

Orlando hasn't fared as well against sub .500 teams from a point spread perspective going 4-11 ATS the past 15 times they've played them. 

No need to overthink this one. I'm going to ride the Knicks at home in this price range. The Knicks are playing great going 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games with six of those victories occurring by double-digits. Toronto, by contrast, has lost six in a row and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 away games.

The Knicks made short work of the Warriors last night, 132-94. Nobody logged more than 32 minutes for the Knicks in that game so the team should be fresh.

It's time to find out about the Jazz. Utah is 17-16, but in danger of dropping to .500 for the first time this season after consecutive blowout losses to the the Bucks on Saturday and Cavaliers last night. 

I see the Jazz getting back on track here, though, dropping way, way down in class.

Detroit is 8-24. That's the second-worst record in the NBA. The Pistons not only can't finish games, but they can't put together four decent quarters. All of Detroit's last 18 defeats have been by more than two points. 

The Jazz have covered four of the last five times when playing a below .400 percentage opponent. Utah also has a strong covering history in Detroit going 13-4 ATS the past 17 times there. 

Charlotte often is underpriced on the road. It's a reason why the Hornets are 23-11-2 (68%) during their last 36 away contests. I find this to be another good spot to back the Hornets on the road.

The Hornets have lost eight in a row. Nobody wants them. The Kings are playing well. This has caused what I see to be overinflation on Sacramento in this matchup. 

The spot is this: The Kings open a six-game homestand. This is their first home contest in 15 days. They just concluded a six-game road trip with a pair of victories. They've been on East Coast time during their entire trip. 

The Kings can be forgiven if their full concentration isn't there against this opponent, who they beat, 115-108, in Charlotte earlier this season. 
The Hornets opened a six-game road swing with a tough, 119-115, loss to the Nuggets last night. The good news for the Hornets was they had LeMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier all in the lineup for the first time this season. Ball and Hayward looked good. Rozier, though, suffered a bruised hip. 

I don't see the Hornets losing this game by double-digits. 

The Cavaliers are the best defensive team in the NBA. This should be an intense matchup given it's the first game between the two teams since the major off-season trade involving Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton.

The Jazz are off an embarrassing, 123-97, loss to the Bucks, who were minus Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, two days ago. The Under is 6-1 the past seven times the Jazz have played an above .500 team.

Cleveland has held nine of its last 12 foes to fewer than 103 points. Cleveland is holding opponents to an NBA-low 104.6 points a game. The Under has cashed in 13 of the Cavaliers' last 16 games.

The Under also is 9-2-1 the past dozen times these teams have met.

After blowing out the Warriors at home this past Tuesday, the Bucks went into Memphis and got embarrassed by the Grizzlies, 142-101, two days ago. Now the Bucks return home highly motivated. Milwaukee goes on the road for five games following this matchup. So I'm convinced the Bucks will have their concentration and focus.

The Bucks are 4-0 ATS after not covering the spread in their previous game.

Utah is off a pair of satisfying home wins against the Pelicans beating them on Tuesday and in overtime on Thursday.

The Bucks are coming off a highly satisfying, 128-111, home blowout victory against the Warriors two days ago. The Under has cashed nine of the last 10 times the Bucks have covered.

Look for that trend to continue here.

The Bucks are giving up just 104 points per game in their last six games.

Memphis has been playing strong defense, too. The Grizzlies have held their last four opponents to an average of 100.2 points.

The Grizzlies catch the Bucks minus injured point guard Jrue Holiday. Memphis is expected to get back defensive-minded big man Steven Adams. He pairs with Jaren Jackson Jr. to clamp down on Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Look for the defending world champion Warriors to regain their poise after getting buried by 17 points to the Bucks in Milwaukee in a technical-filled evening last night. 

Prior to that beatdown, the Warriors had been idle for three days. So there should not be a fatigue factor. Golden State won't lack motivation. Indiana ended Golden State's 10-game home win streak, 112-104, four games ago. The Pacers were 12 1/2-point road 'dogs. Now look at the point spread. It's so low, I can back the Warriors on the money line.

The Warriors are the No. 4 scoring team in the NBA. The Pacers are well below average in all the defensive categories. They also commit the second-most fouls. 

If there's a fatigue factor involved it's against the Pacers. They are in action for the fourth time in six days. 

The Lakers are improving, but they are still levels below the Celtics, who are in the argument for best team in the NBA.

Boston concludes its six-game road trip here having lost two in a row getting blown out by the Warriors and Clippers last night. The Celtics should be motivated following those humiliations. They are 17-7 ATS following a loss. The Celtics are a strong road team, too, going 24-11-1 ATS in their past 36 away contests.

The Lakers just finished their own six-game road trip with a victory against the Pistons this past Sunday night. They find the Celtics waiting for them in LA. It's the Lakers' first home game this month. So they might not have their full concentration being away from home for two weeks. 

The Celtics have covered six of the last seven in the series.

I like the Cavaliers to cover against the Spurs even if they remain without Donovan Mitchell and Kevin Love. So I'm going to take an early position on them anticipating the line would climb if Mitchell were to play.

Cleveland blew a 17-point lead to the Thunder, but still won by eight points this past Saturday despite not having Michell and Love.

The Spurs are on a min-winning streak having beat the Rockets and upset the Heat this past Saturday on the road. But the Spurs still are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and own the worst home mark in the NBA at 4-10.

San Antonio is a below average rebounding team. The Spurs also give up the most points in the NBA. The Cavaliers should dominate the boards and inside scoring with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Spurs have been without their best rebounder and shot blocker, Jakob Poeltl, who has missed the past five games with a knee injury.

Cleveland has covered during each of its last four visits to San Antonio.

In the Zig and Zag world of the NBA, this spot sets up for the Jazz. Utah knocked off the Warriors by one point at home on Wednesday, but then the Jazz were beaten by an aroused Timberwolves squad, 118-108, last night. It was emotional for Minnesota because of Rudy Gobert returning back to Utah to face his old teammates.

The Jazz are 10-3-2 ATS following a double-digit home loss.

Denver, on the other hand, stole a victory at Portland last night, 121-120, on Jamal Murray's 3-pointer in the final second. Denver is 8-19 ATS following a victory.

It's a plus if the Jazz get back Lauri Markkanen, who missed last night's game due to illness. But back for Utah is point guard Mike Conley.

The Pacers are a below average defensive and rebounding team. This isn't an ideal spot for them either returning home following a seven-game, 13-day road trip that concluded Wednesday night. Indiana is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day's rest.

The Magic and Rockets are the only teams the Pacers have been favored against by this many points. It's going to be difficult for the Pacers to have their full concentration having been gone from home since Nov. 26.

The Wizards don't have injured Bradley Beal, but Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma are playing well. The Wizards are frustrated having lost four in a row since a 15-point home win against the Timberwolves. Look for Washington to keep this close if not pull the outright upset.

This is a big total, but consider who these two teams are and what the situation is.

The Rockets rank 27th defensively giving up 117.2 points per game. They also rank 27th in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Houston has surrendered at least 120 points in seven of its last eight games.

Pathetic defense, right? Way until you see San Antonio's defensive numbers. They're even worse.

The Spurs allow 121.3 points a game. That's last in the NBA. San Antonio also is last in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Spurs have surrendered 117 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games.

Both teams should play loose and fast with nothing to lose being bottom feeders. The Spurs, who have lost 11 in a row, last played on Sunday so they definitely will have plenty of energy. Houston has been idle the past two days. The Rockets catch the Spurs without their injured center Jakob Poeltl, whose absence is a plus for the Over.

This is the first meeting between the two teams. The Over cashed in each of their four games last season.

Normally I don't like to step in against the Celtics, especially when they are playing well like they are now having won seven of their last eight games.

But I feel confident doing it here. Chris Paul is expected to play after missing the last 14 games with an injured heel. That could provide an added spark for Phoenix. But I'm fine with the Suns even if Paul doesn't play.

Phoenix still is very good without Paul. The Suns should be up for this matchup having lost, 130-111, to the Mavericks in Dallas two days ago. Phoenix was 7-1 before that loss to Dallas.

The Suns are 10-3 ATS during the last 13 meetings against the Celtics. They have covered six of their past seven times at home versus Boston.

The Celtics are playing their third road game in four days, flying in from Toronto. This also is Boston's seventh game in 11 days. Phoenix is in action for the third time in five days. The Suns had two easy games, though, playing the Rockets and Spurs before losing to the Mavericks. Plus they are home. So their fatigue factor is much less than Boston's.

I want to fade the Pistons following their 116-96 surprising road beatdown of the Heat last night. That was Detroit's biggest margin of victory all season.

The Pelicans are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their last three games have all been victories by 15 or more points against the Raptors, Spurs and Nuggets.

New Orleans should be rested and ready, too, having last played on Sunday. The Pelicans won't be taking the Pistons lightly now after what Detroit did to Miami.

The Pistons rank 28th defensively. New Orleans is the fourth-highest scoring team in the league.

The Pacers may be excused if they are a no-show in this matchup against the Timberwolves. This marks the finale of a seven-game, 11-day road trip for Indiana. The Pacers surprised the Warriors with a 112-104 victory as a 12 1/2-point 'dog this past Monday playing without six players, including Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Chris Durate. Haliburton and Turner are questionable while Durate remains out with an ankle injury. 

Indiana is 0-4 ATS following a cover and 0-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 

The Timberwolves won their first game without injured Karl-Anthony Towns beating the Grizzlies by eight points. But then in their second game without him, this past Saturday, they fell 135-128 to the Thunder as 5 1/2-point home favorites. The Timberwolves lost their poise in the game. Rudy Gobert was ejected early and Minnesota was whistled for five technical fouls. That was Minnesota's last game. 

I see the Timberwolves bouncing back having had three full days to rest, recuperate and redeem themselves at home. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS when playing after three or more days of rest.

Minnesota also has defeated Indiana the last three times. This includes a 115-101 road win on Nov. 23. 

Cleveland returns home after losing, 92-81, to the Knicks this past Sunday. The Cavaliers are 5-8 on the road, but 10-1 at home. Going back to last season, the Cavaliers are 11-1-1 ATS during their last 13 games at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.

The Cavaliers average eight more points per game at home and shoot 49.3 percent from the field compared to hitting 46 percent of their field goals on the road.

The Lakers are playing well, winners of three in a row. LA is 2-0 on its current road swing upsetting the Bucks this past Friday and defeating the Wizards on Sunday. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when meeting an above .500 opponent, though.

The Cavaliers should be the more motivated team defending home turf plus taking on LeBron James, their former face of the franchise. The teams met in LA on Nov. 6 and the Cavaliers won, 114-100.

The Bucks are in the argument for best team in the NBA. The Magic have the worst record in the league at 5-19. They've lost eight in a row with their last five defeats coming by an average of 15.6 points.

Milwaukee is 9-1-1 ATS during its last 11 visits to Orlando.

So why are the Bucks laying less than double digits?

The answer is they shouldn't be since Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday - their three best players - are rested and expected to play. They sat out during the Bucks' 105-96 road win against the Hornets this past Saturday after Milwaukee had played on Friday night.

It's the Magic who are the banged-up team. Orlando has been without center Wendell Carter Jr., point guard Jalen Suggs along with Gary Harris, Mo Bamba, Jonathan Isaac and Chuma Okeke. This has weakened an already weak player rotation.

The Bucks have one of the deepest benches in the league. So I don't see Milwaukee coughing up a huge lead.

The Trail Blazers return to Portland following a 116-111 road victory against the Jazz last night. They'll find an angry Pacers squad there to greet them.

After nipping the Lakers on the road this past Monday, the Pacers have gotten blown out in their last two games, road defeats to the Kings on Wednesday and Jazz on Friday.

Indiana has a strong recent bounce back record covering four of the last five times following a non-cover. The Pacers have been a money-maker covering 12 of their last 17 games.

Portland has failed to cover in its last four home games.

The Trail Blazers could get back star guard Damian Lillard. If that's the case, though, the line could go up more. Lillard figures to be rusty after missing the past seven games. Lillard's return could impact Anfernee Simons, who has been on fire since Lillard has been out, while also causing a letdown among his teammates.

It's easy to think offense when handicapping the Nets because of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. But Brooklyn isn't a good shooting team. The Nets rank 19th in scoring. What the Nets are good at is defensive field goal percentage where they rank first.

Brooklyn has held its last three opponents to an average of 102 points. That puny average is what the Raptors are averaging during their past four games, 102.7.

The Raptors had held their opposition to 112 points or fewer in regulation in six straight games until giving up 126 to the Pelicans two days ago in an 18-point loss. Toronto coach Nick Nurse ripped his team's defensive effort following that game.

So I'm expecting a much better defensive performance from the Raptors in this game.

The team's have met twice this season. There were 214 combined points in the Nets' 109-105 home win against the Raptors on Oct. 21 and 210 combined points produced in the Nets' 112-98 road win against Toronto on Nov. 23.

Spot means a lot in the NBA. This is a good spot for the Pistons. 

Yes those 5-18 rebuilding Pistons, who are minus their top player, Cade Cunningham. He's out with a shin injury.

The Mavericks are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending world champion Warriors at home on national TV two days ago, 116-113. It was the Warriors who eliminated Dallas in the Western Conference Finals last season. 

After this game, the Mavericks travel to New York to play the Knicks on Saturday. It's a huge revenge spot for the Mavericks. The Knicks embarrassed the Mavericks, beating them by 30 points in Dallas this past March. 

So this game not only is a letdown situation for the Mavericks, but a look-ahead spot, too, for them. I don't expect Dallas to bring its ''A'' game. 
This is the Pistons' third of a four-game homestand. They are 0-2 so far on the homestand with an eight-point loss to the Cavaliers and a 30-point beatdown loss to the Knicks in their last game this past Tuesday. Detroit coach Dwane Casey challenged his team after that loss to the Knicks calling out his players for soft defense and not showing any fight.

Expect the Pistons to go all-out in this one. Detroit has been banged up, but got back underrated Isaiah Stewart against the Knicks. Stewart put up 19 points versus New York. Stewart is the Pistons' top rebounder. 

Still unconvinced? OK, how about this: Despite their 5-18 record, the Pistons have a winning point spread mark. Dallas doesn't. The Mavericks are 5-14-1 (26 percent) ATS. Dallas is 1-10-1 ATS the past 12 times after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. 

The Mavericks also have lost and failed to cover during their last five road games. They are 1-7 away from home with that lone victory occurring in overtime against the Nets in  October. 

The Mavericks have been pointing to this marquee nationally-televised home matchup for a long time. It was Golden State who ended Dallas' season last year beating the Mavericks in five games during the Western Conference Finals. 

The Mavericks committed fewer turnovers than the Warriors during that series, but were done in by cold shooting. 

The Warriors' 27th-ranked defense has regressed very much since then especially on the road. Golden State is 2-9 SU and ATS away from home this season with its only road victories coming against the Rockets and Timberwolves. 

Dallas is on a four-game losing streak. But those losses have come to good teams losing to the Nuggets and then the last three on the road to the Celtics, Raptors and Bucks. 

Now the Mavericks are back home where they have covered seven of the last 10 times when hosting the Warriors.

The Celtics may be in letdown mode after beating the Wizards, 130-121, on Sunday despite not having Jason Tatum, who sat out with an ankle injury. Tatum is day-to-day. Boston might not be as intense playing for the second consecutive day and in action for the fourth time in six days hosting a lowly non-division opponent.

The Hornets have been idle since Friday. Charlotte has been playing well, growing as the season progresses.

The Hornets are 3-3 in their last six games, 4-1-1 ATS. Two of their losses during this span occurred on the road to the Wizards by four points and at the Cavaliers in overtime.

Charlotte has a good long-term road ATS track record. I'll back the Hornets getting double-digits.

I don't get this short number. These teams have met twice already within the last six days. The Lakers blasted the Spurs, 123-9, at home without LeBron James and then beat the Spurs again this time on the road last night, 105-94. 

James played in last night's game and committed a season-high nine turnovers. He'll be less rusty here. 

The Lakers started slow. But they are coming on now, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games. The lone defeat during this span was to the Suns. 

The Spurs are a strong fade right now. They are 1-12 in their last 13 games and have lost seven in a row. San Antonio ranks last in all the major defensive categories. 

Maybe the Spurs get right here. That could be a stretch. The Lakers have proven themselves the superior team. So I'll lay this short number. 

The Lakers are playing better and have a great opportunity to win their first road game here, likely getting back LeBron James and taking on the pathetic Spurs.

San Antonio is young and bad, losers of 11 of its last 12 games. The Spurs rank last in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Lakers certainly have the scorers to take advantage.

The Lakers just blasted the Spurs, 123-92, at home this past Sunday. And that was without James.

LA had won three in a row until falling to the Suns, 115-105, on the road three days ago. Time for the Lakers to begin a new win streak. They couldn't ask for an easier opponent.

The Rockets haven't played since Sunday. Not only will be they be rested, but the extra practice time should come in handy for such a young, developing team.

So Atlanta could get ambushed here. The Hawks just ended the Kings' seven-game win streak with a 115-106 home win two days ago. The Hawks are 2-9 ATS after covering in their previous game.

Atlanta is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arch, ranking 27th in 3-point shooting.

The Rockets rank 11th in 3-point defense. They will make the Hawks earn their points in what should be a back-and-forth closer game than what the oddsmaker thinks.

The Cavaliers come into Milwaukee fat and happy after celebrating Thanksgiving having swept their four-game homestand. They'll find an angry Bucks team awaiting them.

Milwaukee is 9-2 at home this season. However, one of its losses just occurred to the Bulls on Wednesday, 118-113.

The Bucks buried the Cavaliers, 113-98, when the teams last met nine days ago in Milwaukee. That was the seventh time in the last nine tries the Bucks have covered against the Cavaliers at home.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in the league averaging 30.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists. The Bucks get back Wesley Matthews, too, to boost their rotation.

Surprised at this line? Don't be this spot sets up well for the Hornets.

The 76ers are without their three best players, Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Yet they still beat the Nets, 115-106, last night in an emotional game. 

Now the 76ers have to turn around and play the Hornets, who are desperate for a victory and have gotten healthier. Charlotte is rested and ready having last played on Sunday. 

The 76ers are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 1-10 ATS versus opponents with a below .400 winning percentage. 

These teams went crazy when they met eight days ago. The Thunder won, 145-135. The Knicks hadn't allowed that many points in regulation since 2006.

So you have to believe the Knicks will be much more intense defensively. They also likely will be slowing the ball down carrying a heavy fatigue factor playing their fifth road in seven days. This has taken a toll on the Knicks' scoring. New York's point production has gone down each of the last three games from 106 to 101 to 95 points.

New York has allowed an average of 110.2 points in its last four games following that loss to Oklahoma City. The Knicks rank fifth in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage.

The Thunder enter this matchup having not played at home in 10 days and with their rotation shaken by injuries.

Kudos to the Knicks in opening their five-game road trip with straight-up underdog victories against the Jazz on Tuesday and Nuggets on Wednesday. But I don't see them making it three in a row against the Warriors.

Golden State has won five in a row at home. The Knicks are playing their third road game in four days and are in action for the fifth time in eight days. They caught a break in drawing the Nuggets when Denver was missing Nikola Jokic. Still, it was a highly satisfying win for the Knicks, their first in Denver since 2006. 

The Warriors aren't as fat and happy as the Knicks. Golden State is off a highly disappointing, 130-119, road loss to the Suns this past Wednesday. Warriors coach Steve Kerr fell on his sword taking the blame for the defeat. 

I see the Warriors playing with great intensity back at home in support of Kerr. Golden State is hitting 40 percent of its 3-point shots at home. That would rank No. 2 in the league if it were the Warriors' season average. The Knicks are down defensively from past seasons. They rank in the middle in 3-point defense. 

The Bulls have rapid revenge for a 115-111 home loss to the Pelicans last Wednesday. The scheduling dynamics also favor Chicago.

Chicago last played three days ago. So the Bulls should be rested and ready. That's not the case with the Pelicans, who are in action for the eighth time in 13 days and have zero rest after beating the Grizzlies last night. Both Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum logged big minutes in that game.

It's a bonus for the Bulls if Zion Williamson has to miss the game. He's questionable with a foot injury.

The Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS during their last 11 road games.

This is just the third time all season the Grizzlies are underdogs when they are expected to have Ja Morant. He missed Memphis' last game, a 102-92 road loss to the Wizards this past Saturday.

Memphis is 0-3 when Morant has been out. But with him, the Grizzlies are 9-2. The Grizzlies also are 15-7 ATS the past 22 times following a loss.

The matchup has sort of a Zig/Zag feel to it as the Pelicans are off a 119-106 home win against the Rockets from Saturday. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS following a victory.

The Grizzlies have defeated the Pelicans three of the last four times when Morant has started.

Miami has yet to get going at 6-7. The Heat are at least two levels down from the Suns. The key question is are the Heat good enough at home drawing the Suns likely without Chris Paul for a third straight game?

I rather doubt it. Considering the situation - the Suns off an embarrassing loss to the Magic this past Friday - I will get involved backing underdog Phoenix.

The Suns had a cold shooting night against Orlando while the Magic were hot making 52.4 percent of their shots from the floor.

Phoenix is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times following a loss. They are 4-0 SU this season after losing in their previous game. Phoenix also has covered in its last four visits to Miami. Cameron Payne is one of the more underrated backup point guards in the league.

The Heat have their own key injury. Tyler Herro, Miami's second-leading scorer, has missed the last three games due to a sprained ankle.

Miami just got down hosting the lowly Hornets during its past two games. The last time the Heat faced a team of this high caliber was in their second game of the season when they hosted and lost to the Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the past six times they've met an above .500 opponent.

By the numbers the oddsmaker has set a correct total here. Early marketplace activity has pushed the total even higher. Golden State is the third-highest scoring team in the league and second-worst defensive team. The Warriors just allowed an average of 121.6 points on their recently completed 0-5 road trip. Led by Donovan Mitchell and his 31.9 scoring average, the Cavaliers are a top-seven scoring team. 

But I see this spot being much more defensive-oriented than perceived. 

This is the conclusion of the Cavaliers' five-game road trip. They've lost the last two games to the Kings and Lakers allowing an average of 123.5 in those contests. Cleveland ranks seventh defensively holding opponents to 107.4 points a game. The Cavaliers are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the league. 

Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff was especially appalled by his team's lack of defense in the 127-120 Wednesday loss to Sacramento. This is what he said following that game, ''...If we want to be a good basketball team, we need to remember who we are and we need to play Cavaliers basketball. ...''

Cavaliers basketball is defense and limiting opponents to one shot. 

The Warriors are overdue to start cleaning up their defense. They were the third-stingiest team in the league to score against last season holding opponents to 105.4 points. This is just Golden State's third home game since Oct. 23. The Warriors gave up 110 to the Heat and 113 to the Kings during their previous two home games. Not great, but much better than they've been allowing on the road. 

This isn't going to be an easy sell with the 3-9 short-handed Hornets, losers of six in a row, and missing LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. But hear me out.

Miami is 4-7. The Heat haven't played a good game in two weeks. They've won only one game by more than seven points all season. Miami is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in its last six games with losses during this span to the Kings, slow-starting Warriors, Pacers and Blazers.

The Heat might not have Tyler Herro, he's second on the team in points and rebounds. He's day-to-day with an ankle injury.

Terry Rozier has returned to Charlotte's lineup, so at least he's back. Recent pickup Dennis Smith Jr. has been doing well. The Hornets are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games.

Miami has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 home games.

The teams meet again in Miami on Saturday. So this could be a feeling out process between two struggling teams. The Heat don't deserve to be this high of a favorite.

Having Kyrie Irving suspended has aroused the underachieving Nets. Brooklyn is 2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS in the three games Irving has missed during his suspension. The Nets' lone defeat during this time frame came on the road to the Mavericks by two points. The Nets made a gallant comeback in that game, falling just short.

It's clear the Nets are playing with more urgency and discipline with Irving not on the court. This is proven in their defensive efforts. After surrendering an average of 120.3 points in their first seven games, the Nets have held their last four foes to an average of 96 points.

The Knicks are 2-4 during their last six games with their losses occurring to the Bucks by 11, Cavaliers by 13, Hawks by 13 and Celtics by 15. Their record would be 2-5 in their last seven games, but they managed to beat the shorthanded Hornets in overtime failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. The Knicks' other two wins during this seven-game span were against the 76ers by two points in a game in which Philadelphia didn't have Joel Embiid and versus the Timberwolves, who have a losing record.

The Nets have defeated the Knicks during the past seven meetings.

The makeup of the Nets has changed with Kyrie Irving suspended. Irving has missed the past three games. During this time, the Nets have given up an average of just 92 points a game. They are playing with more discipline and urgency minus Irving.

Of course Irving's absence hurts the Nets' offense. Brooklyn has failed to break the 100-point barrier in three of its last four games. The Knicks have the second-best defensive field goal percentage in the league.

The Knicks just held the Timberwolves to 107 points in their last game. That's six points under Minnesota's scoring average.

This is more than just a division rivalry from these two neighbors. So there should be a lot of defensive intensity.

Almost always disrespected, the Pistons have been a strong money-maker covering 23 of their last 34 games going back to last season for 68 percent. 

This spot sets up well for Detroit to cover again hosting the Cavaliers.

Cleveland is off a dramatic 114-113 home overtime win against the Celtics from Wednesday. Following this game, the Cavaliers head to the West Coast for four games. So this not only is a flat sport for the Cavaliers but their concentration and focus could be off, too. 

The Pistons are battle-tested having just played two games against the Bucks, the lone unbeaten team in the NBA, nearly winning one of the games. 
The Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS during their past 10 away games. They also have failed to cover in four of their last five games against Detroit. 

How can a team with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook be that bad at 1-5? Answer: The Lakers aren't that bad. Their early shooting has been off. LA ranks 29th in field goal percentage and last in 3-point accuracy. 

Now I'm not saying the Lakers are ready to join the elites, but they finally have some confidence and momentum after beating the Nuggets, 121-110, at home this past Sunday. The Lakers have had ample time to prepare and be ready to host the Pelicans.

Playing the Pelicans always is a big deal for Davis. He played seven seasons for New Orleans. The Pelicans aren't expected to have Brandon Ingram, their second-best player. 

I don't believe the Lakers should be home underdogs here.

The Cavaliers are a team on the rise with five straight victories. One of these wins was a 132-123 road overtime victory against the Celtics in Boston this past Friday.

Boston, though, is in a higher class than Cleveland. The Celtics are in revenge mode and have underrated defender Grant Williams for this rematch. Williams missed Friday's game.

The Celtics are proven road warriors going 21-8-1 (72 percent) in their last 30 road games. The superior team with high motivation should succeed in this spot. That's the Celtics.

Strange to see both of these two teams under .500 through seven games this season. Defense has been the problem with the Warriors. Golden State ranks last in the NBA in defense giving up 122 points a game. The Heat are better ranking 11th allowing 110.6, but that's still below their high defensive standards.

Change is coming and I see it occurring here. The intensity should be up a notch with both riding two-game losing streaks. The Warriors are off an embarrassing, 128-114, road loss to the lowly Pistons from Sunday. Miami also is off a bad loss, 119-113, to the Kings this past Saturday.

Last season the two teams ranked third and fourth, respectively, defensively each surrendering 105 points a game. Each team has their same players. Klay Thompson is off to his usual slow start. So I see things becoming more normal.

The Warriors defeated the Heat, 123-110, at home last Thursday. Golden State shot 50 percent from the floor and 87 percent from the foul line in that game. I trust Miami coach Erik Spoelstra, one of the better defensive coaches, to make adjustments.

The Heat are 26th in scoring at 108 points per game.

Stephen Nover Free Tuesday Play

Phillies plus $1.13 hosting Astros 

 The Phillies have enough going for them in this Game 3 of the World Series to present good value as a home underdog.

Philadelphia lacks Houston's postseason experience, but won't lack confidence after coming from a 5-0 deficit to beat the Astros, 6-5, in Game 1. The Phillies are home now with the series tied 1-1.

The Phillies being in Philadelphia means nearly 50,000 vociferous fans in the stadium and a return to their usual outdoors elements. The Phillies play much better at home being 18 games above .500 there compared to being just one game above .500 in road contests.

Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. gets the start for Houston. The Phillies have won the last seven times they faced a righty starter.

The Phillies will go with Ranger Suarez instead of Noah Syndergaard, who they were going to start in this Game 3 before it was postponed Monday. Obviously the Phillies feel better starting Suarez, who is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in the postseason.

So much for the Jazz playing the lottery game. Utah may be the biggest surprise in the NBA going 5-2. One of those victories came this past Saturday when the Jazz nipped the Grizzlies, 124-123.

Memphis blew a four-point lead with less than two minutes left. The Grizzlies also were minus their superstar guard, Ja Morant, who had a non-COVID-19 illness. He's questionable for today's game. But even if Morant sits out again, I still like the superior Grizzlies in this short revenge spot.

The Grizzlies are a deep team. They can beat many teams without Morant, including the Jazz. Desmond Bane is an emerging star and backup point guard Tyus Jones is underrated.

The Jazz put forth a great effort and deserved to beat Memphis two days ago. Now it's the Grizzlies' turn to go all out.