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NBA Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-21-21	Grizzlies +5 v. Warriors	Top	117-112	Win	100	15 h 59 m	Show
Aside from Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, the Warriors have a lot of youth and lack big-game inexperience. I don't trust the Warriors in this point spread range against a talented, hungry Grizzlies squad that has the height and muscle to hurt Golden State inside. Yes, the Warriors defeated the Grizzlies, 113-101, at home this past Sunday. But the Grizzlies were right with the Warriors until Dillon Brooks, who was doing a good job covering Curry, fouled out with Memphis trailing just, 93-91. Curry carries a high fatigue rating having played 81 minutes during his last two games. Curry's worst shooting games have occurred when he's been tired. Memphis has covered nine of the last 11 times it has been a 'dog. Big man Jaren Jackson Jr. has returned to the Grizzlies' lineup giving them a frontcourt edge on the Warriors with Jonas Valanclunas in the middle. Curry is an MVP finalist, but Ja Morant gives Memphis an upper tier guard, too.
05-20-21	Pacers v. Wizards OVER 236.5		115-142	Win	100	13 h 8 m	Show
Teams usually step up defensively during the postseason. But I don't see the Pacers and Wizards being capable of that. These two teams live and die by offense. Indiana finished sixth in the NBA in scoring. The Pacers are averaging 129.3 points in their last four games. The Wizards rank last in the NBA defensively. The Over has cashed in 10 of the Pacers' last 13 games. Washington was the No. 3 scoring team in the league. The Wizards have averaged 124.6 points during their last 14 games, discounting their play-in game loss to the Celtics. The Pacers rank 25th defensively. The teams met 17 days ago and there were a whopping 295 points scored! Russell Westbrook averaged 27.3 points and 20 assists per game against the Pacers during the regular season. Bradley Beal isn't 100 percent, but he's back in Washington's lineup. Star guard Malcolm Brogdon is back in Indiana's lineup, which offsets the loss of Caris LeVert.
05-20-21	Pacers v. Wizards -3		115-142	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
Washington and Indiana each finished the regular season going 34-38. But I don't see these teams being even. The Wizards came on strong. The Pacers didn't. Washington closed the regular season going 17-6. The Wizards are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games. They defeated the Pacers during all three regular season meetings. Indiana is 6-7 in its last 13 games. A 144-117 pasting of the choking, banged-up Hornets in Tuesday's play-in game doesn't alter my opinion that the Pacers are inferior to the Wizards. The Wizards got their bad game out of the way with a 118-100 loss to the Celtics in their play-in game two days ago. Bradley Beal isn't 100 percent because of a hamstring injury, but he is back playing. Russell Westbrook is a triple-double machine and gives Washington the best all-around player on the court. Washington has shown a bounce back ability. The Wizards are 7-0-1 ATS following a defeat. They also are 18-5 ATS the past 23 times when playing on one day's rest.
05-19-21	Warriors v. Lakers -5		100-103	Loss	-108	13 h 15 m	Show
Now technically this isn't a playoff game. It's a play-in game. Neither team will get eliminated if it loses. But that doesn't mean the stakes aren't big here. When the stakes are big I want LeBron James and Anthony Davis going for me. Together they trump Stephen Curry. Kudos to Curry on a brilliant season, leading the league in scoring. The Lakers, though, have done a good job of clamping down on Curry holding him to 21.5 points a game during the past two meetings. That's nearly 11 points under his season scoring average. The Warriors lack the Lakers' depth. Their rotation goes just eight deep because of injuries. So if Curry is cold, Golden State is in big trouble. The Lakers crushed the Warriors by an average of 28 1/2 points during their last two meetings. LA didn't have Anthony Davis in those games either. Now LA has James and Davis back healthy plus monster rebounder Andre Drummond. Expect the Lakers to dominate the paint and glass with the smaller Warriors minus injured Kelly Oubre and James Wiseman. Oubre also was the player Warriors coach Steve Kerr would have liked to use defending James. Now that task falls on Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins is a good defender, but his offense is going to suffer since his concentration will be on trying to stay on and contain James. The Lakers have the talent edge, home-court and now postseason motivation to win this game by more than the point spread.
05-18-21	Hornets v. Pacers -3		117-144	Win	100	8 h 13 m	Show
Gordon Hayward remains out. LaMelo Ball is far from 100 percent and the Hornets are in free-fall losers of their last five games and 15 of their past 21. While the Hornets have covered just one of their last seven games, the Pacers are 6-0-1 ATS during their past seven games. Indiana has played five tough or hot teams during this seven-game stretch - Lakers, Bucks, 76ers, Wizards and Hawks. Charlotte has been the worst shooting team in the league during its last five games ranking 30th in 3-point percentage and 29th in field goal shooting. Ball, bothered by a broken wrist suffered on March 29, hasn't been the same player since coming back. Obviously the wrist isn't fully healed yet. The Pacers are far more respectable with Domaontis Sabonis back in the lineup. He returned this past Sunday after missing a game because of a quad injury and had a huge game in a 12-point win against the Raptors. The Hornets, who have lost their last five games by an average of 8.8 points, are 1-4 ATS during their last five visits to Indiana.
05-16-21	Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 229.5		101-113	Loss	-110	6 h 32 m	Show
The Grizzlies and Warriors rank among the top 14 scoring teams in the NBA. This is one of the rare Sunday matchups that has playoff meaning. Both teams have been pointing to this matchup by resting key players. Stephen Curry plays his best when he's not fatigued. He's had four days to rest up for this game. The Grizzlies have yet to face him this season. Curry is going for a scoring title and will be firing at will. The Warriors play small ball. That's fine with the Grizzlies. who have gone Over in 13 of their last 19 road contests. Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, another instant offense performer, also are rested having not played during this past Friday game. Ja Morant gives Memphis a dynamic scorer. The Grizzlies also hold an inside edge with Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson Jr,, who is rounding into form after being out most of the season. The Warriors haven't seen him this season. Morant, Valanciunas and Jackson all were rested in the Grizzlies' last game this past Friday. The Grizzlies are the fifth-highest offensive rebounding team in the league and No. 1 in second-chance points. The Warriors are weak on the boards, giving up the fourth-most offensive rebounds. Valanciunas is No. 2 in the NBA in offensive rebounds and second-chance points. Jackson's return makes the Grizzlies even more of a force on the offensive boards.
05-15-21	Heat v. Bucks +4.5	Top	108-122	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
It's no secret the physical, defensive-minded, well-coached Heat match up well to the Bucks. Miami proved that in a convincing manner last season eliminating the Bucks in five games during the second round of the playoffs. There's also conjecture the Bucks could be sitting out players here. There's already been tremendous early line movement to the Heat. But, even in a worst-case scenario, Milwaukee has enough depth and bench strength to cover this number at home. It's a huge plus if the Bucks do give meaningful minutes to their regulars.
05-14-21	Nuggets v. Pistons +9		104-91	Loss	-115	8 h 30 m	Show
The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy going 2-0 on their current road trip and having home-court advantage clinched for the first round of the playoffs. This is their second to last game of the regular season so the Nuggets could rest a key player or two. Denver's objective is the playoffs, not steamrolling the Pistons by double-digits. Detroit has been getting good play from 2019 first round pick Sekou Doumbouya and its first-round picks this season - Saddiq Bey, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart and Saben Lee. The youthful Pistons are in full rebuild so it's no surprise they've been up-and-down this season, mostly down. But Detroit should be up for this home matchup. The Pistons are off an embarrassing 19-point home loss to the Timberwolves this past Tuesday. They've had ample rest and prep time for this game. Pistons management showed its commitment to Dwane Casey extending his contract. Casey would very much like his Pistons to finish strong. This is their chance.
05-13-21	Magic +12.5 v. Hawks	Top	93-116	Loss	-109	17 h 57 m	Show
Tight victories against the Wizards on Monday and Wednesday have pushed the Hawks into their first playoff spot in four years. The Hawks are thrilled, relieved and exhausted after nipping Washington, 125-124, three days ago and beating the Wizards, 120-116, last night. This sets up a tremendous letdown spot for the Hawks in today's game against the lowly Magic. This is the Hawks' third game in four days and second in two nights. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. The Magic held the Bucks, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, to 114 points in their last game this past Tuesday. That was six points under the Bucks' season average. The youthful Magic should play hard here, but the situation is the No. 1 factor why Orlando should keep things close.
05-12-21	Rockets +13.5 v. Lakers		122-124	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
I'm anticipating a monster letdown from the Lakers after their gutty, 101-99, home overtime win against the Knicks Tuesday night. The Lakers accomplished that minus LeBron James. James is expected to make his return in this game. You couldn't blame the Lakers for taking the Rockets lightly, at least subconsciously, especially with the news that James is returning to the lineup. Houston is 5-43 in its last 48 games establishing itself as the worst team in the West if not the entire NBA. But the Rockets have covered their last three games and should get back Christian Wood, their best big man. They have some underrated backup-caliber guards, too, who can look good against LA's depleted backcourt that is minus Dennis Schroder and possibly Alex Caruso. Houston could catch a major break if the Lakers decided to hold out Anthony Davis, who tweaked his groin during the victory against the Knicks.
05-12-21	Blazers v. Jazz -126		105-98	Loss	-126	12 h 36 m	Show
Simple task for Utah. The Jazz clinch the No. 1 overall playoff seed if they beat the Trail Blazers, Thunder and Kings. This is the tough one left on Utah's regular season schedule so I anticipate the Jazz being up for it. Moreso because Utah is coming off a loss. Golden State halted the Jazz's five-game win streak with a 119-16 home win two days ago. The Jazz held Stephen Curry to 10-of-24 shooting from the floor in the loss. That doesn't bode well for Damian Lillard. Utah is 22-10 ATS the past 32 times as a home favorite. The Jazz are 2-0 versus Portland this season winning by an average of 19.5 points.
05-11-21	Magic v. Bucks -13	Top	102-114	Loss	-110	10 h 29 m	Show
The Bucks have something to prove physically and mentally after being embarrassed, 146-125, on the road by the Spurs Monday night. Milwaukee certainly is going to be motivated for tonight's home game and the Bucks have the perfect patsy to get themselves right again - the Magic. Orlando has lost 18 of 24 since dumping their top players at the trade deadline. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games. The Bucks are giving up an unsightly 137.7 points during their last three games. It's been a combination of lackluster defense and hot offenses that have caused this. Milwaukee should clamp down defensively here. Orlando is second-to-last in scoring and last in field goal percentage. The Bucks trail the Nets by one game for second-place in the Eastern Conference. So they will have incentive. The Bucks have dominated the Magic winning the past six meetings while going 5-0-1 ATS. This includes the Bucks' two victories against the Magic this season by an average of 29.5 points.
05-10-21	Jazz -3 v. Warriors	Top	116-119	Loss	-102	11 h 26 m	Show
There's a class difference here worthy enough to lay the road points. The Jazz are 6-1 in their last seven games riding a five-game win streak. No rest stops for them, though, as they hold just a 1 1/2-game lead on the Suns for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Warriors also have been playing well. But they've also played a bunch of bunnies lately. Their last six games have been against the Thunder twice, Pelicans twice, Rockets and Timberwolves. Only the Pelicans have a slim chance of making the playoffs among that dreck. Utah has covered nine of the last 12 in this series and is 4-1 ATS in its past five visits to Golden State.
05-09-21	Pelicans +4 v. Hornets		112-110	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
The oddsmaker has overcompensated for the Pelicans not having injured Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Granted those are New Orleans' two best players. The Hornets, however, have five rotation players either out or questionable. So they're dealing with injuries, too. Not only are the Pelicans in must-win mode needing to move up one spot to qualify for the play-in tournament, but the intensity for this matchup is increased because it's a meeting of the Ball brothers, Lonzo and LeMelo. The Pelicans hung in against a much tougher foe than the Hornets this past Friday, losing to the 76ers on the road, 109-107, despite not having Williamson and Ingram. That was the fifth straight road game the Pelicans have covered. They also are 4-0 ATS during their past four visits to Charlotte.
05-09-21	Knicks v. Clippers UNDER 216.5		106-100	Win	100	7 h 35 m	Show
The Knicks are coming off an embarrassing, 128-105, loss to the Suns from Friday night. That was the third-most points the Knicks have surrendered during regulation. New York is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA in scoring defensive, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Knicks should be highly motivated here and for them that starts and ends with defense. The Clippers rank fifth defensively giving up 108 points per game. That number goes down to 106 a game counting just the last seven contests. The Knicks rank 26th in scoring. Two other factors for why this should be a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker envisions: Pace and game time. The Knicks play at the slowest tempo in the NBA. The Clippers have played at the slowest pace in the league during the last five games. This is an early start time, too. So the shooting rhythm could be off.
05-08-21	Rockets v. Jazz OVER 226	Top	116-124	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
Both teams are coming off huge efforts on Friday night. Utah got past the Nuggets, 127-120, at home while the short-handed Rockets turned in a gutty performance in a 141-133 loss to the Bucks on the road. I'm anticipating a letdown from both sides here, which sets up a less-than-intense game with sloppy defense. Houston ranks 27th in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Rockets give up 116 points per game. That number shoots up to allowing 127.1 points if you go by their last seven games. Utah is the No. 3 scoring team in the NBA at 116.6. The Jazz don't need Donovan Mitchell's scoring if Bojan Bogdanovic stays hot. Bogdanovic made 16-of-23 shots from the floor, including eight 3-pointers, in scoring 48 points against the Nuggets. Utah is coming off scoring 127 versus the Nuggets and 126 against the Spurs in its last two games, both of which were at home. The Spurs rank 15th defensively while the Nuggets give up the ninth-fewest points in the league. Houston is far worse defensively. The Rockets put up 133 points on the Bucks despite having only eight players. The Rockets were missing Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. versus the Bucks. It's a nice bonus if either, or both, were to play today. Kelly Olynyk continues to contribute strong offensive numbers inside and the Rockets have respectable backcourt scoring depth with Armoni Brooks and D.J. Augustin. If fatigue hits the Rockets, which it very well could, it will show on defense. The Over has cashed in five of Houston's last six games when it played without rest.
05-07-21	Lakers +8.5 v. Blazers	Top	101-106	Win	100	12 h 13 m	Show
No LeBron James. No Dennis Schroder. OK, now that's out the way here's why the Lakers keep this game close, if not pull the outright upset: The Trail Blazers are playing their first home game since April 25. They've been on the road since turning in an impressive 5-1 away mark during this span. So this is a dangerous spot for the Trail Blazers, who have lost their LAST six home games. The Lakers are 1-4 in their past five games. Their win was against the Nuggets, which is impressive. LA's losses, though, were to the Clippers, Raptors, Kings and Wizards. The Kings and Wizards have been sizzling. Anthony Davis is expected to play after logging just nine minutes in his last game. Davis is calling this matchup the biggest game the Lakers have left on their regular season.
05-07-21	Nuggets v. Jazz -4		120-127	Win	100	10 h 58 m	Show
Both teams are banged-up, but have been surviving very nicely. The Jazz are still elite even if Donovan Mitchell isn't ready to return to the lineup. The Nuggets keep losing players. They've been without star shooting guard Jamal Murray and now have a serious crisis in the backcourt with Monte Morris, sparkplug Will Barton and P.J. Dozier all injured. Look for that to catch up to the Nuggets in Salt Lake City, a place they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 visits. The Jazz have been home since May going 3-0 SU and ATS since then beating the Spurs twice and Raptors once. The Nuggets are 2-4 ATS in their last six road contests, with one of those covers occurring versus hapless Houston. There is too much for the Nuggets to overcome and the spread is fair to back the home favorite.
05-06-21	Grizzlies v. Pistons +9.5	Top	97-111	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
The Grizzlies aren't good enough to cover a road spread this high considering the situation they are in. This marks Memphis' fifth game in seven days. The Grizzlies just defeated the Timberwolves, 139-135, in a wild game on Wednesday night. Memphis is 1-4 ATS the last five times it has been favored. The Pistons are in a youth movement. But they have received strong play from rookies Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes. Those three combined, however, to shoot 4-for-23 in the Pistons' last game. That was two days ago against the Hornets. Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Josh Jackson and Wayne Ellington didn't play for Detroit in that game. Still, the Pistons only lost, 102-99. The Pistons are 15-6-1 the past 22 times following a loss. They can hang in against this foe, particularly given the Grizzlies' high fatigue rating.
05-05-21	Suns v. Hawks UNDER 228		103-135	Loss	-104	8 h 16 m	Show
There shouldn't be any cheap baskets in this one. The Hawks rank third in 3-point defense, while the Suns are fifth-best in defending 3-pointers. Don't expect a fast pace from the Suns and veteran point guard Chris Paul. Phoenix is playing for the fourth time in six days, third in four days and second in two nights having defeated the Cavaliers in overtime on Tuesday. Paul, who turns 36 on Thursday, logged nearly 36 minutes last night. If you discount a pair of road contests against the 76ers, the Hawks are giving up an average of only 103.6 points in their last five games. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the Hawks have hosted the Suns.
05-04-21	Mavs v. Heat OVER 215.5	Top	127-113	Win	100	8 h 45 m	Show
Going by season statistics this total seems about right. Both Dallas and Miami are top-10 defenses. However, current form-wise this total is too low. Discounting a 111-99 loss this past Sunday to the Kings, their jinx team, the Mavericks are averaging 124.3 points in their last three games. The Heat have surrendered at least 110 points in three of their last four games. Miami, though, is averaging 120.3 points in its past three games. Dallas has permitted 110 or more points in 10 of its last 13 games. The Mavericks still probably won't have back injured big man Kristaps Porzingis, but they are expected to have back gunner Tim Hardaway Jr. Porzingis does provide inside scoring, but his absence would open things up inside offensively for the Heat. The Heat could be without Andre Iguodala, who has a hip injury. He's a top-notch defender so that would be a plus for the Under.
05-01-21	Nuggets v. Clippers -5	Top	110-104	Loss	-105	10 h 27 m	Show
Early speculation is the Clippers will have superstar Kawhi Leonard for this game. Leonard has played just once during the last three weeks because of a sore foot. The Clippers have been targeting this matchup for Leonard to play. Even if Leonard has to sit out another game, I still like the Clippers to cover. LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Denver is 8-1 since losing its star, Jamal Murray. The Nuggets, though, have played weak-to-mediocre teams during this stretch. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
05-01-21	Pistons +7 v. Hornets		94-107	Loss	-104	8 h 59 m	Show
The Hornets haven't been favored by this many points all season. I don't see it here. Not with the Hornets minus Gordon Hayward and LeMelo Ball. The Pistons have proven spunky. Their main rookies - Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes - have been playing well. Detroit is off a double-digit loss at home to the Mavericks. This is a step down in class for the Pistons, who usually play well following a defeat. They are 11-0 ATS in their next game after a double-digit home loss.
04-30-21	Bucks -106 v. Bulls	Top	108-98	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
The Bucks have a tremendous track record playing the Bulls on the road covering the past eight times. I expect Milwaukee to make it nine straight against Chicago even without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who played less than a minute before suffering an ankle injury against the Rockets last night. The lowly Rockets stung the Bucks with a 143-136 win. It was the most points the Bucks have surrendered all season. I expect the prideful Bucks to play with super intensity following that humiliation. Milwaukee has the depth to overcome Antetokounmpo's expected absence. The Bulls are without their best player, too, Zach LaVine. He averages just half-a-point less a game than Antetokounmpo at 27.5 points.
04-29-21	Warriors -5 v. Wolves	Top	114-126	Loss	-110	14 h 10 m	Show
Break up the Timberwolves. Minnesota is riding a season-high three game winning streak. The Timberwolves upset powerful Utah twice and then got past lowly Houston, 114-107, this past Tuesday. The Warriors, a .500 team in a desperate struggle to earn the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, are the first decent opponent Minnesota plays after stunning Utah twice. The Timberwolves have picked up their game since Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards have all been on the court together. But they are overdue for a letdown and I expect the Warriors to bring their "A" game after an embarrassing, 133-103, home loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The Warriors have covered each of the last four times following a defeat.
04-28-21	Hawks +8.5 v. 76ers	Top	83-127	Loss	-115	11 h 2 m	Show
This opening point spread is a case of just looking at the last game's results. Those results from two days ago were the 76ers burying the hapless Thunder, 121-90, while the Hawks were getting upset by the lowly Pistons, 100-86. Before that victory against Oklahoma City, losers of 14 of its last 15 games, the 76ers had dropped four in a row. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Hawks had upset the Bucks two games ago leaving them ripe for a letdown against the Pistons. Despite multiple injuries, the Hawks have won and covered 11 of their last 15 games. I'm not expecting Trae Young to return to the Hawks' lineup yet. But Clint Capela has been playing as well as any big man in the league. Guard Kris Dunn made his season debut against the Pistons bolstering Atlanta's backcourt depth. It would not surprise me if the 76ers sat out Joel Embiid for this game. Embiid played against the Thunder, but was in pain due to a sore right shoulder. So I'm taking an early position here knowing if Embiid is rested this line will drop sharply.
04-27-21	Thunder v. Celtics OVER 216		119-115	Win	100	9 h 28 m	Show
I understand Oklahoma City's starting lineup of Theo Maledon, Kenrich Williams, Aleksej Pokusevski, Darius Bazley and Moses Brown is not going to bring back memories of the 1992 USA Olympic Dream Team. But the Thunder's lack of marquee talent cuts both ways. Their defense has been horrible. Oklahoma City is giving up an average of 122.8 points in its last seven games. The Thunder just surrendered 121 points to the 76ers last night. The Celtics may not have all of their weapons if Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Robert Williams III have to sit out again. But Boston does have Jaylen Brown and Evan Fournier back. Plus Boston just yielded 125 points to the Hornets two days ago. The Hornets are minus their two most effective offensive players, Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball.
04-26-21	Jazz -9.5 v. Wolves		104-105	Loss	-110	11 h 38 m	Show
The Jazz are tough enough to face under ordinary circumstances. Now the Timberwolves draw Utah in a rapid revenge spot. Minnesota stunned Utah, 101-96, as 12 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. The Jazz hadn't played at home in nine days and were going right back on the road following the game. Utah was distracted and not ready to bury the Timberwolves. The Jazz also were cold, shooting just 40.2 percent from the floor. That won't be the case here. The Jazz should be extremely fired-up and focused. They rank No. 3 in the NBA in scoring at 116.5. Minnesota ranks 29th defensively allowing nearly 118 points per game. The Timberwolves won their first two games of the season. They haven't won two straight since then. Minnesota is 7-18-2 ATS following a victory. The Timberwolves have failed to cover five of the last six times they've hosted Utah.
04-26-21	Hawks v. Pistons +4		86-100	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
The Pistons usually can be counted on for a good effort thanks to Dwane Casey. Detroit is in a great ambush spot here. The Hawks upset the Bucks, 111-104, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs on Sunday. Atlanta achieved the victory minus its best player, guard Trae Young. The Hawks are short-handed in the backcourt and at wing with Young, De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Tony Snell and Kris Dunn all out. Not only are the Hawks in a letdown spot, but they carry a heavy fatigue rating, too. This marks Atlanta's fifth game in seven days and second in two days. Detroit is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Those losses were on the road. The Pistons are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two home contests beating the Cavaliers and Thunder. The Hawks are a notch above those teams, but they are just a borderline playoff team not some elite opponent. Detroit has covered 77 percent the past 26 times following a non-cover. The Pistons have been getting strong play from their bench. This could prove crucial given the Hawks' high fatigue status.
04-25-21	Kings +9.5 v. Warriors	Top	113-117	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
The Kings covered for the eighth time in the past nine meetings against the Warriors when they rolled past Golden State, 141-119, at home on March 25. Sacramento was minus 4 1/2 points in that game. Now look at the spread. Quite a difference. Stephen Curry didn't play in that last meeting. Curry is back anc playing at his highest level, which is considerable. De'Aaron Fox is out for Sacramento due to COVID. Fox is the Kings' best player. Golden State is home this time and will have fans in the stand. This explains the huge point spread differential from the past meeting. But it's not enough to keep me off the Kings. I envision a much closer score than the oddsmaker does. The Kings are in must-win mode trailing the Warriors and Spurs by 5 1/2 games for the final two playoff spots in the West. The loss of Fox is huge. However, it weakens the Kings' bench more than the starting five because star rookie Tyrese Haliburton will move into the starting lineup now. There's a chance the Kings get back big man Richaun Holmes. He's practicing after missing the past five games with a hamstring injury. I'm expecting the Kings to go all out with their starters logging big minutes. The Kings will be well rested having last played this past Wednesday. Sacramento has covered 20 of the past 26 times for 77 percent when playing on three or more day's rest. The Kings have been playing well, too, winning two of their last three games. They have covered their last two road contests upsetting Dallas a week ago and coming within eight points of the Suns on April 15. The Warriors are in a letdown spot coming off a huge and impressive, 118-97, home victory against the Nuggets two days ago. Golden State's depth is down with rotation players Kent Bazemore, Damion Lee, Eric Paschall and James Wiseman all out. So the Kings' backup players won't be so vulnerable.
04-24-21	Bulls v. Heat -4.5		101-106	Win	100	9 h 55 m	Show
The Heat were humbled by the Timberwolves eight days ago. Miami responded to that bad loss by winning three in a row defeating the Nets and blowing out the Rockets and Spurs. But then last night the Heat's 3-game win streak ended in terrible form with a 118-103 road loss to the Hawks. It was one of the Heat's worst defensive games of the season especially considering Atlanta won without its two best players, Trae Young and Clint Capela. Miami bounced back after its loss to Minnesota and I see the Heat doing it again hosting the Bulls, who remain without their top player, Zach LaVine. I consider Erik Spolestra one of the top coaches in the NBA. I trust him to have the Heat fired-up after Friday night's stinker. The Bulls are 1-4 in their last five road games. During this span, Chicago lost by 16 points to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday, lost by 11 to the Grizzlies, fell to the Timberwolves by four and lost to the Hawks by 12.
04-24-21	Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 216.5		103-120	Loss	-110	8 h 40 m	Show
The Knicks rank No. 1 in the major defensive categories, including giving up the fewest points per game at 104.7. Lately, though, the Knicks have been involved in some high-scoring games. The result is five Overs in their last six games. I find these Overs misleading. During their last five games, the Knicks have played two overtimes, met the Pelicans twice and Hawks once. This has led to a lot of scoring inflation. Toronto is a much different opponent. The Raptors have allowed just 105.5 points during their last six games, playing offenses much stronger than the Knicks, who rank 26th in scoring. There were a combined 198 points scored when the Raptors last visited New York just 13 days ago. The Knicks won that game, 102-96. This is a day game with an early start time, which I view as a plus for the Under. The Raptors also will be without injured Chris Boucher. The value of Boucher is well-known to anyone who participates in a deep Rotisserie basketball league like I do. Boucher is shooting 51.9 percent from the floor, which is the highest by far of any Toronto player logging more than 23 minutes a game.
04-23-21	Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 232.5		130-128	Win	100	12 h 19 m	Show
The Grizzlies have been a tremendous Over road team. They've gone Over in 18 of their past 24 away matchups for 75 percent. If you discount the Grizzlies' last game, a 117-105 loss to the Clippers two days ago, Memphis is averaging 121.8 points in its past eight road games. A big takeaway from the Grizzlies' game against the Clippers was the season debut of 6-foot-11 Jaren Jackson Jr. He scored 15 points in fewer than 18 minutes. The Grizzlies now have an inside scoring threat to go with Ja Morant and a bunch of outside gunners. Jackson averaged 17.4 points last season. Portland ranks 25th in scoring defense and 26th in defensive field goal percentage. So the Grizzlies should get their points. The Trail Blazers are a top-10 scoring team and Memphis is a below average defensive club. The Trail Blazers finally are fully healthy. Damian Lillard had missed three games with a hamstring injury. He returned in Portland's last game, a 106-105 home loss to the Nuggets this past Wednesday. Lillard, though, was rusty shooting only 9-of-23 from the floor, including missing eight of 10 shots from 3-point range. I'm expecting a much better performance from Lillard.
04-22-21	76ers v. Bucks UNDER 225.5		117-124	Loss	-109	10 h 31 m	Show
The 76ers gave it a good try, but they fell to the Suns, 116-113, on Wednesday. Philadelphia was minus Ben Simmons, Seth Curry and Tobias Harris. Those probably are the 76ers' second, third and fourth-most valuable offensive players. Simmons isn't expected to play. Curry and Harris are questionable. Superstar Joel Embiid even might sit, or have his minutes reduced since this is the second consecutive game for Philadelphia. These absences have opened up more playing time for Matisse Thybulle, an excellent defender and a plus for the Under. The Bucks rank fifth in defensive field goal percentage defense. Not only are the 76ers playing without rest, but this will be their third game in four days. The Under has cashed the past five times the 76ers have played on zero rest so expect a slow pace from Philadelphia. The Bucks will have their defensive intensity having lost two in a row with the latest being a 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns this past Monday. That game was Under the total at the end of regulation. The 76ers rank seven in scoring defense and are No. 4 in defensive field goal percentage. There were only a combined 186 points scoring in regulation during the first meeting between the two clubs on March 17.
04-21-21	Nuggets v. Blazers +2	Top	106-105	Win	100	12 h 18 m	Show
The Nuggets are 3-0 since watching the horror of Jamal Murray go down for the season with a torn ACL. Denver has managed to beat the Heat, the hapless Rockets and the Grizzlies in double overtime this past Monday rallying from a 12-point deficit with less than four minutes left in regulation. Now, though, the Nuggets are without Murray and fellow guard Monte Morris. He's out with a hamstring injury. Denver escaped the Grizzlies despite committing 24 turnovers. I don't see the Nuggets escaping on the road here against Portland. The Trail Blazers are off a 113-112 home loss to the Clippers last night. Portland came very close despite not having Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. Lillard is Portland's best player and Nurkic is their best front-court player. Both Lillard and Nurkic are expected to play against the Nuggets. The Trail Blazers' huge backcourt edge should carry them through.
04-19-21	Suns v. Bucks UNDER 235	Top	128-127	Loss	-110	15 h 48 m	Show
Both teams have something to prove each coming off bad losses. The Suns were blown out at home by the Spurs, 111-85, while the Bucks fell to the Grizzlies, 128-115, at home. Both of these losses occurred this past Saturday so the teams may have gotten caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup. These are two of the best teams in the NBA. So I'm expecting an intense, playoff-type defensive effort. Yes, there are great scorers on the court. But each team is excellent defensively, too, with the Suns ranking fourth in scoring defense and fifth in 3-point defense, while the Bucks ranking fifth in defensive field goal percentage. This is the Suns' first road game in 11 days. Discounting their away contest against the hapless Rockets, the Suns have averaged just 99 points during their last three road games. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be playing for the third time since being out six games with a knee injury. The Bucks aren't rushing him. He played fewer than 30 minutes against the Grizzlies, which is down from his usual 34-minutes of court time. The Under has cashed five of the last six times the teams have met in Milwaukee.
04-19-21	Cavs -2.5 v. Pistons		105-109	Loss	-110	8 h 44 m	Show
Scared about asking the Cavaliers to win on the road? Don't be. Cleveland has won and covered three of its last four road contests. The Cavaliers still have playoff hopes, while the Pistons are in full rebuild. The Cavaliers have covered the last five in this series, including winning both games against the Pistons this season. Detroit lost, 121-100, to the Wizards two days ago. The Pistons permitted the Wizards, whose guards usually do most of their damage, to score 74 points in the paint.
04-18-21	Rockets v. Magic OVER 218.5		114-110	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
Orlando is 1-7 in its last eight games. Houston is 1-10 in its last 11. Something has to give when these two lightweights meet today. Yeah that something is defense. The Rockets have allowed 125 or more points in each of their last five games. They stopped playing defense a long time ago. The Magic's defense has tumbled way down, too. Orlando is giving up an average of 120.1 points in its last eight games. A combination of getting gutted at the trade deadline and having injuries to their best defenders has lowered the Magic's once semi-respectable defense. Houston won't have John Wall. He's sitting out. I'm fine with that because the Rockets still have Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood, Jae'Sean Tate and underrated Kelly Olynyk. Wall hasn't had a stellar season either. Orlando will be minus point guard Michael Carter-Williams. So that means big minutes for Cole Anthony, who doesn't have Carter-Williams' defensive mind-set. The Magic have eight players 23 or younger. This is going to be a fun up-and-down game for them.
04-17-21	Spurs v. Suns OVER 227		111-85	Loss	-104	8 h 29 m	Show
When it comes to NBA superstars, Devin Booker's name often gets lost. But sparked by Booker, who averages 25.7 points a game, the Suns are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NBA. They also rank No. 2 in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. San Antonio is a below average defensive team that has given up at least 117 points in six of its last nine games. Phoenix has scored at least 117 points in eight of its last 10 games. The Over has cashed in eight of the Suns' last 10 games. The Spurs have produced 115 or more points in eight of their past 12 games so they should contribute their fair share in getting this total to go Over.
04-17-21	Cavs v. Bulls -121	Top	96-106	Win	100	17 h 32 m	Show
Zach LaVine is out and the Bulls are on a five-game losing streak. So why back them? Two words: Cleveland Cavaliers. It's not too much to ask the Bulls to simply beat the hapless Cavaliers at home. This is the Bulls' opportunity to stop the bleeding while fighting for the 10th and final place in the play-in tournament. Chicago is tied with Toronto for that spot. LaVine is the Bulls' top scorer, but Chicago still holds an inside edge thanks to Nikola Vucevic. The Cavaliers rank last in scoring and second-to-last in offensive efficiency. Cleveland has failed to cover in 15 of its last 22 road contests. The Cavaliers' average road loss is by nearly double-digits.
04-16-21	Magic v. Raptors -130		102-113	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
The expression fat and happy doesn't usually apply to the Orlando Magic. But in this rare case it does. The Magic halted a six-game losing streak by beating the Bulls and former teammate, Nikola Vucevic, 115-106, this past Wednesday. I don't see the rebuilding Magic bringing that kind of intensity to this matchup against the desperate Raptors, who need to make a move now. Toronto showed it still can be a force defeating the Spurs, 117-112, two days ago despite missing Kyle Lowery and Fred VanVleet. Both Lowery and VanVleet are expected to play for Toronto today. The Magic couldn't stop VanVleet when the teams last met in Orlando on Feb. 2. VanVleet scored 54 points in a 123-108 Toronto victory. The Raptors also defeated the Magic, 115-102, on Jan. 31 at home. The Raptors should have some added insight into the Magic having acquired former Orlando center Khem Birch eight days ago.
04-16-21	Pacers v. Jazz UNDER 235		111-119	Win	100	5 h 40 m	Show
This is a weird Friday matinee game, which I consider a plus for the Under. The total is set high because the Pacers and Jazz have been piling up a lot of points against bad defenses. So I believe their current scoring form is skewed. The Pacers' last six games have occurred against five below average defenses. Now they go against the Jazz on the road. Utah gives up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA and ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Indiana ranks 22nd in scoring defense. Yet this will be the Jazz's toughest defensive foe in their last five games. Utah's previous four games were against defenses ranked 24th, 26th, 29th and 30th. There were just 198 points scored when the two teams met earlier this season at Indiana on Feb. 7 with the Jazz winning, 103-95. It's a break for Indiana if Jordan Clarkson has to miss another game with an ankle injury. Clarkson is the NBA leader in points off the bench this season, but he shot just 34.5 percent from the floor in March.
04-15-21	Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 212.5	Top	121-113	Loss	-110	18 h 57 m	Show
It's taken until April, but the Celtics finally have started to play good basketball winning six of their last seven games. Strong defense has keyed Boston's turnaround. The Celtics rank fifth in defensive efficiency during their last 10 games, eight of which have gone Under the total. Boston has held four of its last seven opponents to fewer than 103 points. The Lakers have really stressed defense knowing their scoring was going to take a major hit with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both sidelined. LA has slowed down its tempo since losing their superstars and that pace is even slower now with Andre Drummond in the lineup. Drummond has yet to find a comfort zone in LA's offense. He's scored only seven points during the past two games despite logging around 25 minutes a game. This is what Drummond was quoted as saying, "Offensively it's probably the worst I've played in my career, so I'm still trying to figure it out. But I'm not allowing it to take me out of my game. I know why I'm here, which is to help this team out defensively." The Lakers have surrendered an average of just 100.5 points during their last 10 games. That defense easily would rank first in the NBA if computed out for the entire season. Don't look for the Lakers to speed up their style either in this matchup. They just concluded a seven-game, 12-day road trip this past Tuesday night at Charlotte. So their jump-shooting legs could still be tired and they have to reacquaint themselves with the shooting rims at Staples Center. The pace was extremely slow when the Lakers nipped the Celtics, 96-95, in the first meeting this season. James and Davis combined for 48 points in that matchup at Boston. There should be playoff intensity reminiscence of this once great rivalry in this matchup. The Celtics have revenge. The Lakers will have fans in the stands - around 2,000 of them - for the first time this season. The Under has cashed in each of LA's last six home contests.
04-14-21	Mavs -130 v. Grizzlies		114-113	Win	100	11 h 60 m	Show
Minus their rebounding and blocks leader, Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks still defeated the Grizzlies, 102-92, on Feb. 22. That was the first game following the week-long All-Star break. I don't see why a healthy Mavericks squad can't duplicate that victory. Dallas is 16-12 on the road. Memphis has a losing home record. The Mavericks have covered in five of their last six visits to Memphis. The Grizzlies are off an 11-point home win against the struggling Bulls. This is their third straight home game and sixth game in nine days. The Mavericks are in a bad mood following an embarrassing, 113-95, home loss to the 76ers from two days ago. Dallas is 9-2 ATS after not covering in its previous game.
04-13-21	Celtics v. Blazers -110	Top	116-115	Loss	-110	12 h 5 m	Show
This is the middle game of the Celtics' three-game road swing. Boston won its third consecutive game upsetting the Nuggets, 105-87, this past Sunday. The Celtics have been living on the edge as each of their victories during their win streak have been come-from-behind. The Celtics have a revenge game on tap against the Lakers on Thursday. LA nipped the Celtics, 96-95, in Boston on Jan. 30. Portland is going to be motivated for this contest while Boston could be flat because of the scheduling. The Celtics are 4-13-1 ATS following a win. They also are 11-16 on the road this season. The Trail Blazers are off a listless, 107-98, home loss to the Heat this past Sunday. Blazers coach Terry Stotts was not happy with how his team played in that loss. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Trail Blazers. Portland is just 2-4 in its last six games. Note, though, the Trail Blazers' losses during this span have come to the Heat, Jazz, Clippers and Bucks. The Celtics are not in the class of the Jazz, Clippers and Bucks.
04-13-21	Nets v. Wolves UNDER 233.5		127-97	Win	100	3 h 5 m	Show
Yes I'm aware that I'm trying to make a pair of bottom-six defenses work by going Under. But the high total offsets that. So in studying this matchup and seeing Brooklyn's lengthy injury report, I find Under to be the way to go. The teams met just 16 days ago and the Nets won, 112-107, for a combined 219 points. Not surprisingly, the stars of that game were James Harden and Kyrie Irving. They combined for 65 points on 22 of 47 shooting from the floor while knocking down 15 of 16 free throws. Neither Harden nor Irving is going to play today. Also out for the Nets are LaMarcus Aldridge and Tyler Johnson. Kevin Durant is in the lineup. However, this is only his third game back from a long injury layoff and he's been on a minutes restriction since returning. The Nets are sure to be stressing defense after getting torched in embarrassing fashion, 126-101, by the shorthanded Lakers this past Saturday. Minnesota is defensively-challenged. But next to Durant, the player the Timberwolves most have to worry about is guard Joe Harris. They should be able to handle that. So the Timberwolves' defensive task has been made much easier with the Nets down Harden, Irving and Aldridge. There will be no fans in the stands and the game is being played in the afternoon. I regard this as more of a plus for the Under.
04-11-21	Pistons +12.5 v. Clippers	Top	124-131	Win	100	12 h 17 m	Show
I know it doesn't say much for the Pistons when Jerami Grant is the team's best player and he may not even play after missing the past two games due to a sore knee. But the Pistons aren't as bad as perceived. They are 4-4 in their last eight games. Detroit 13-5 ATS the past 18 times when taking more than 6 points. This does mark Detroit's fifth and final road game of its current away swing. The Pistons, though, have a lot of young players looking to make their mark. They got their rest last night in a poorly played, 118-103, loss to the Trail Blazers. I believe the Pistons will show more energy and effort in this game. Detroit had shot better than 50 percent from the floor in their previous three games before Portland. The Clippers are fat and happy posting a 6-2 mark during their current homestand. It would be hard to blame the Clippers if they took the Pistons too lightly here. LA is still tinkering with its rotation. Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley are both out. Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins are trying to get their footing. Paul George is dealing with a bruised foot. Kawhi Leonard always is a candidate for rest against a sub .500 opponent.
04-09-21	Rockets +12 v. Clippers	Top	109-126	Loss	-108	12 h 55 m	Show
The Clippers enter this matchup against the lowly Rockets fat and happy. LA is riding a three-game win streak, is playing at home for the eighth consecutive game and coming off a highly-satisfying victory against the Suns last night. LA's last four games have been against the Suns, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Nuggets. Now the Clippers get a huge drop in class. The last time the Clippers hosted a below .500 foe was five games ago against the Magic on March 30. Orlando sprung a 103-96 upset in that game. The Rockets are more respectable since getting John Wall and Christian Wood back from injury. They proved that in their last game when they upset the Mavericks, 102-93, at home this past Wednesday. The Rockets displayed tough defense and renewed spirit. So they are capable. I wouldn't be shocked either if Kawhi Leonard sat out. He played 38 minutes against the Suns last night and even got poked in the eye, which he said bothered his vision during the game. If Leonard is indeed rested, this line will go down several points.
04-08-21	Suns v. Clippers -5	Top	103-113	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
If there were still any doubt about the Suns not being an elite team it was laid to rest on Wednesday night when Phoenix beat Utah, 117-113, in overtime. Only the Jazz have a better record in the NBA than the Suns. No team has been better against the spread than Phoenix, which has covered 66 percent of its games this season with a 33-17 ATS mark. The Suns have won seven in a row. Yet I'm going against the Suns today. Normally I'd either play on the Suns, or avoid them. They have been the wrong team to fade. Not this time, though. It's not who you play in the NBA when it comes to point spread covers during the regular season, but when you play them. This situation is just too good to ignore the Clippers. Not only are the Clippers an elite team themselves - certainly capable of winning the NBA championship - but they catch the Suns in a horrible spot. The Jazz-Suns Wednesday showdown lived up to the hype. Both teams laid it on the line like it was the seventh game of a playoff series. There was no holding back. The Suns wanted to prove to their fans and to a national TV audience that they indeed are for real. That point was proven, but the price didn't come cheap. Chris Paul, who turns 36 in less than a month, played a season-high 43 minutes against Utah. Devin Booker logged nearly 44 minutes. Deandre Ayton went more than 41 minutes. He hadn't played more than 40 minutes all season. The Suns also played a tight game this past Monday getting past Houston, 133-130, on the road. So they are playing for the third time in four days, all at different venues, and without rest. The Suns are not the deepest of teams. The Clippers are back to full strength with the exception of Serge Ibaka. LA strengthened its rotation by signing DeMarcus Cousins, who says he's in the best shape of his life. The Clippers were idle on Wednesday following an easy, 133-116, home win against the Trail Blazers this past Tuesday. This will be the second meeting between Phoenix and LA. The Clippers defeated the Suns, 112-107, at Phoenix on Jan. 3. Paul George led the way with a season-high 39 points. The Clippers led by 20 at halftime. There was a lot of trash talking in that game. The Clippers have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They are 8-1 ATS the last nine times hosting the Suns. The NBA schedule makers did the Suns no favor scheduling them for this matchup following a home game against the Jazz. The Clippers are going to be up for this game and they have the talent to blow out any opponent, Phoenix included. I can't see the Suns coming up with anything resembling an "A" level performance and effort after Wednesday's tremendous home victory, perhaps the best moment of the season for them. This one goes to the Clippers and I don't expect the score to be close.
04-07-21	Jazz v. Suns UNDER 224.5		113-117	Loss	-109	13 h 41 m	Show
New Orleans and Phoenix are a combined 73-26. Record-wise, they are the two best teams in the NBA. So this is a huge game and ESPN is on hand to televise the matchup. Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker are outstanding scorers. But these teams know how to play defense. The Jazz rank No. 3 in defensive scoring holding foes to 107.2 points. They also rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They haven't given up more than 107 points in seven of their last nine games and not more than 114 points during any of their past 10 games. The Suns are the No. 5 defensive team in the NBA holding opponents to 107.7 points. They rank fourth in 3-point defense and have held opponents to 112 points or less in eight of their last 10 games. When the teams had their lone meeting this season back on New Year's Eve in Utah, there were a combined 201 points scored with the Suns winning, 106-95. This has all the makings of a playoff-caliber intensity type of matchup.
04-07-21	Pelicans +9 v. Nets		111-139	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
It's easy to look at the Pelicans and see a string of key players hurt and a 26th-ranked defense. There's also a fatigue factor as New Orleans is playing without rest and for the fifth time in seven days. Meanwhile, the Nets are expected to finally get back Kevin Durant, who has missed the past 23 games. However, the combination of a large point spread, James Harden being out with a hamstring injury and the Nets being a horrible favorite put me on New Orleans. The Pelicans are short-handed in the backcourt with Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker out with injuries. Brandon Ingram is questionable. So he may not play either. But Zion Williamson, who has emerged as a high-percentage shooting, all-around monster player, is back from a thumb injury. Lonzo Ball is playing well. Eric Bledsoe is a capable guard and recently signed Isaiah Thomas is available. He played 25 minutes scoring 10 points against the Hawks on Tuesday night. Durant figures to be rusty. He probably won't log a lot of minutes. The Nets may even come into this matchup overconfident based on their opponent and finally getting Durant back while having Kyrie Irving. The oddsmaker seems to be in love with the Nets. The Nets haven't returned this love going 1-9 ATS the past 10 times they've been chalk.
04-06-21	Bulls v. Pacers +1	Top	113-97	Loss	-103	8 h 57 m	Show
The Pacers are off a 139-133 road victory against the Spurs this past Saturday. That's significant for several reasons. It halted a three-game Indiana losing streak and the Pacers accomplished that impressive feat minus Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon. Those are arguably Indiana's two best players. So it's not asking too much for the Pacers to just beat the Bulls at home even if Sabonis and Brodgon have to sit out again. Each is questionable. Indiana has had two full days to rest and game plan. The Bulls have dropped their last four road games, including a 120-104 loss to the Spurs on March 27. Indiana has covered six of the past seven in the series.
04-04-21	Grizzlies v. 76ers -3	Top	116-100	Loss	-110	9 h 40 m	Show
The 76ers are dominant at home, the point spread is lower than I anticipated and Joel Embiid is back. This is enough to put me on the 76ers. Philadelphia is 20-4 at home this season. The 76ers have covered 68 percent of their past 52 home games. Memphis is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times when on the road meeting a foe with a winning home record. The Grizzlies have failed to cover during their last four visits to Philadelphia. Embiid wasn't rusty after missing 10 games due to a bruised knee scoring 24 points against the Timberwolves on Saturday.
04-03-21	Cavs +12 v. Heat		101-115	Loss	-109	10 h 59 m	Show
I'm not expecting the Heat to be up for this game, or to produce an "A" type of effort. Why bother, they're playing the Cavaliers. Based on this belief, I'll take Cleveland plus this many points. Miami hosted Cleveland just 2 1/2 weeks ago and won, 113-98. The Cavaliers have lost four in a row. The Heat are on a three-game win streak. This is the Heat's fourth game in six days. Miami is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times as a home favorite. But are there other reasons to get involved with the Cavaliers besides perceived line value and the strong possibility of a Miami letdown? Yes, the Cavaliers have been blown out by the 76ers and Jazz in their last two games. But they have been tougher than you might think. Prior to those two defeats, the Cavaliers were highly competitive in five of their previous seven games - beating the Celtics, Raptors and Bulls while losing by six to the Spurs and by two to the hot Kings. The injury absences of Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. is somewhat off-set by the return of Kevin Love and sparkplug Matthew Dellavedova. Love went 20 minutes against the 76ers. Cleveland only was outscord by two points during Love's time on the court. Love should see more minutes against Miami. Dellavedova made his season debut versus Philly and stabilized Cleveland's second unit. He's a hustling, team-oriented veteran popular with his teammates. Note that Miami has played nine games since defeating the Cavaliers by 15 points. The Heat haven't won by more than 10 points in any of those contests.
04-02-21	Hawks v. Pelicans UNDER 224		126-103	Loss	-110	12 h 11 m	Show
I'm not expecting the Hawks and Pelicans to play with a lot of energy in this one. The visiting Hawks are playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. They are off a two overtime road win against the Spurs from Thursday. The Pelicans also played last night and had to go overtime, losing, 115-110, to the Magic at home. Not only are the Pelicans playing without rest, but this marks their fifth game in eight days. Neither team is likely to be at full strength either. The Hawks don't expect to have their second and third-leading scorers with John Collins sidelined with an ankle injury and De'Andre Hunter dealing with a sore knee that has kept him out of the past four games. Cam Reddish isn't back yet and Kevin Huerter has gone in the tank. There's also the possibility Trae Young sits because of a sore knee. That would be a huge bonus for the Under. The Pelicans fell to the Magic minus their three best offensive players - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. New Orleans committed 24 turnovers minus Ball, its point guard. The Pelicans managed only 101 points in regulation against Orlando last night. I would be surprised if all three of these stars sat out again, but I do expect one or two of them to miss this game. The Hawks have been much improved defensively under the coaching of veteran Nate McMillan, who took over from the fired Lloyd Pierce.
03-31-21	Bucks -8 v. Lakers	Top	112-97	Win	100	21 h 50 m	Show
Minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers still are capable of dispatching dregs like the Magic and Cavaliers. But they can't hang in against a motivated elite opponent. The Bucks are one such foe. The Lakers draw an angry Bucks team with something to prove having lost three in a row with the latest defeat being a crushing 125-109 road loss to the Clippers two days ago. The Bucks haven't had to travel following that loss because this game is at Staples Center, too. Milwaukee also has revenge motivation for a 113-106 home loss to the Lakers back in January. James was the key in that game scoring 34 points. Davis had 18 points. The Lakers are hoping newly signed Andre Drummond can make a difference. Drummond hasn't played since Feb. 12. His minutes are going to be restricted here and he figures to be plenty rusty.
03-31-21	Knicks -3.5 v. Wolves		101-102	Loss	-109	19 h 49 m	Show
Most teams find it difficult to get up for the Timberwolves. Can you blame them? Minnesota has the worst record in the NBA at 11-36. The Timberwolves have failed to cover 12 of the last 17 times they've been a 'dog, too. The Knicks are the exception. They will be up for this matchup - and it's because of Tom Thibodeau. The defensive guru has the Knicks ranking No. 1 defensively giving up 104.6 points a game. The Timberwolves fired Thibodeau as their coach and president in early January of 2019. The season before Thibodeau had led Minnesota to its first playoff berth in 17 years. New York is coming off a bad 98-88 loss to the Heat this past Tuesday. The Knicks are 9-1 ATS the last 10 times following a loss. They also have shown the ability to take care of business against bad teams going 12-3 ATS the past 15 times versus a sub .500 opponent. The Timberwolves rarely can be counted on to play two strong games in a row. Minnesota nearly upset the hot Nets two days ago, losing 112-107.
03-30-21	Magic +11.5 v. Clippers		103-96	Win	100	12 h 12 m	Show
If the Clippers cared about this opponent they would crush them. But they don't. Would you? Orlando could field the least respectable lineup in the NBA following the trade deadline where they dealt its three best players to play for the future. LA is extremely fat and happy, winners and covers of six in a row, including a highly-satisfying 129-105 destruction of the Bucks Monday night. Maybe Kawhi Leonard sits out this one since he played yesterday. Orlando has a lineup you don't want to know, but the Magic have been competitive covering their last three games: Beating the Suns straight-up, losing by seven points to the Trail Blazers and falling to the Lakers by three points. Those point spread covers all came at home. Now the Magic are on the road. Point, though, is the Magic's youngsters should continue to play hard now that they have an opportunity while the Clippers are in a monster letdown spot. Even if the Clippers build up a big lead, the backdoor should swing open with LA hosting the Nuggets on Thursday in a much bigger game.
03-29-21	Raptors -3 v. Pistons		104-118	Loss	-110	10 h 1 m	Show
OK, Toronto it's time. The Raptors are four games out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They can not afford another loss this month to Detroit. Yes, the Pistons are 2-0 versus Toronto in March beating them 116-112 at home and 129-105 on the road March 3. Detroit, though, is in full rebuild. The Pistons are 2-8 in their last 10 games, including 0-4 during their past four games. The Raptors like to bomb from 3-point range. They rank ninth in 3-point accuracy. Detroit ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 22nd in 3-point defense.
03-28-21	Hawks v. Nuggets UNDER 227		102-126	Loss	-109	15 h 26 m	Show
Below the radar screen, the Hawks have been playing very good defense since Nate McMillan took over as coach. Atlanta has held its last eight opponents to an average of 102.3 points per game. The Knicks lead the NBA in scoring defense allowing 104.7 points. Denver has an above average defense. The Nuggets have held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 109 points. Both teams were active at the trade so there are rotation adjustments. The Nuggets got bigger with their recent acquisitions so they might have gotten slower.
03-27-21	Celtics v. Thunder +9.5		111-94	Loss	-110	12 h 56 m	Show
Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games and has been a major disappointment this season. The Celtics, though, acquired Evan Fournier at the trade deadline and could start to make a move. They showed that by upsetting the Bucks, 122-114, on the road Friday night. Oklahoma City is 2-1 in its last three games, but is in clear rebuild mode. The Thunder just lost their leading scorer and best player, Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, indefinitely with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. So if this were a long-term prognosis, I clearly would buy Celtics stock and drop any Thunder stock. But it's not. This is just a one-time thing and this particular situation favors Oklahoma City. Fournier is likely to make his Boston debut here. Moritz Wagner, another Boston newcomer, has just joined the rotation. So there's going to be a transition period. Boston just played two tough games against the Bucks, coming off a huge win that may have turned around its season. The Celtics have a bigger challenge on deck returning home to host emerging superstar Zion Williamson and the Pelicans in a revenge game on Monday. The Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a victory. They are 0-6 ATS the past six times when playing without rest. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday. Their young players are anxious to get back on the court to show what they can do. They should be up for this game. Boston won't. It's a flat spot for the Celtics.
03-26-21	Cavs v. Lakers -3.5		86-100	Win	100	11 h 17 m	Show
The Lakers are in a lot of trouble minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They have lost their last four games. But LA hasn't sunk low enough where they can't cover a short point spread at home against the hapless Cavaliers, who are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games. Cleveland is down several big men with Andre Drummond sitting out waiting for a contract buyout and JaVale McGree traded to the Nuggets yesterday. Cleveland may also be missing its best player and leading scorer, guard Collin Sexton.
03-26-21	Nuggets -125 v. Pelicans		113-108	Win	100	17 h 40 m	Show
New Orleans is much better at home. Denver, however, has one of the top road marks in the NBA at 14-9. The Nuggets certainly aren't going to lack motivation and focus either for this matchup. The Pelicans upset the Nuggets, 113-108, as 6 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Sunday. Denver rebounded from that disappointment to knock off the Magic, 110-99, in Orlando three days ago, but then were buried on the road by the Raptors, 135-111, this past Wednesday. This is what Denver coach Michael Malone said about that defeat to the Raptors: "The most frustrating aspect for me was the complete lack of effort, all around from top to bottom; that was an embarrassing performance." Almost always a team comes out hard after getting ripped by their coach for lack of trying. Denver also has rapid revenge motivation losing to the Pelicans at home five days ago. The Nuggets are 9-3 in their last 12 games and rate at least one level higher than the Pelicans.
03-24-21	Mavs v. Wolves +8.5		128-108	Loss	-115	8 h 55 m	Show
The Mavericks are talented. They also are young and could be facing an unexpected tough battler here. Riding high after a 40-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Sunday, the Mavericks have had three days to enjoy themselves. Their past five games have been against the Nuggets, two versus the Clippers and two against the Trail Blazers. Now they get to step way down in class drawing the hapless Timberwolves. Dallas does not have a good track record in these instances going 5-16 ATS (24 percent) the past 21 times facing below .500 opponents. Minnesota has covered four of its last seven games. Anthony Edwards now becomes the top rookie of the year candidate with LeMelo Ball likely out for the year. Edwards is playing well. Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Timberwolves the best big man on the floor. This is the second meeting between the two teams. Dallas defeated Minnesota, 127-122, failing to cover as 10-point home favorites on Feb. 8. The Timberwolves lost that one by five points despite not having Towns, while the Mavericks had their two big stars, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis.
03-24-21	Hornets v. Rockets +3.5	Top	122-97	Loss	-105	15 h 18 m	Show
The record shows 12-30 for Houston. But are the Rockets really that bad? No, not when they are healthy. The Rockets are nearly back to full strength with John Wall, Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo all available. Houston has enough talent to be respectable. However, to get behind the Rockets you have to believe that they believe in themselves. Is the mental aspect there? It should be after the Rockets snapped a humiliating, franchise-worse 20-game losing streak with a smashing 117-99 home win against the Raptors this past Monday. Joy. Relief. Confidence. The Rockets expressed all of those emotions following that victory. Oladipo even sat out that game as the Rockets chose to give him a rest day. Wall and Wood played well against Toronto. This is important in case Oladipo sits out again as his name is being bantered about in trade rumors. Equally important in this handicap is going against the Hornets. I don't find Charlotte a very good team especially now with star rookie LaMelo Ball likely out for the rest of the season after suffering a broken wrist. Ball was instrumental in the Hornets defeating the Rockets, 119-94, last month with 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Ball was injured this past Saturday. Charlotte beat San Antonio, 100-97, in its last game this past Monday. Teams often play extremely hard in the first game following a major injury to their star player. The Hornets also were fortunate to draw the Spurs in a flat spot playing in their first home game since returning from a five-game road swing. The Spurs looked and played tired in that game. Now it's the Hornets' turn to be tired as this marks their fifth game in eight days. They've been on the road for the past nine days. The Hornets return to Charlotte following this matchup. The Hornets are 2-7 (22 percent) ATS the past nine times after winning their previous game. They also have a history of struggling when playing in Houston going 3-14-2 ATS during their last 19 visits. Stephen Nover Free Wednesday Play Spurs plus 6 hosting Clippers Gregg Popovich in an underdog role and a home one at that. Sign me up for the Spurs here. San Antonio has covered 68 percent of the time it has been a 'dog the past 28 times. The Spurs will have around 3,200 fans for this game, just the third time this season spectators are allowed to attend San Antonio home contests. The Clippers are playing well, but this spot sets up nicely for the Spurs. There is line value because the Spurs lost, 100-97, at home to the Hornets in their last game two days ago. The backstory to that defeat, though, was the Spurs had just returned home following a successful 3-2 five-game road trip that had concluded Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Spurs came out flat against Charlotte and could not recover. I see the Spurs performing much better against the Clippers, a team they dislike because of the presence of Kawhi Leonard. You may recall Leonard forcing his way out of San Antonio during the summer of 2018. That earned him the lasting enmity of the San Antonio population. The Spurs certainly got up for the Clippers when the teams last met on Jan. 5 in Los Angeles. San Antonio won, 116-113, as 7 1/2-point 'dogs. The Clippers enter this matchup off an impressive, 119-110, home victory against the Hawks this past Monday. That snapped the Hawks' eight-game win streak. LA, however, has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been a road favorite.
03-23-21	Nets v. Blazers -121		116-112	Loss	-121	17 h 55 m	Show
The Nets may be the Eastern power oddsmakers envision when James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are all in the lineup together and in sync. Right now, though, the Nets just have Harden. Brooklyn is thin in the backcourt with Irving out for this game. Portland's strength is its backcourt of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and swingman Gary Trent. Brooklyn could be in serious trouble for this matchup if Harden can't go. He was dealing with neck soreness following Brooklyn's last game, a 113-106 home win against the Wizards from two days ago. The Nets lost, 121-113, to the hapless Magic in their previous game played five days ago in Orlando. Portland had turned around its season winning seven of nine games before getting embarrassed at home by the Mavericks, 132-92, this past Sunday. That was the Trail Blazers' worst loss of the season. I see Portland bouncing back at home against a Nets squad that is far from full strength.
03-23-21	Suns v. Heat UNDER 215.5		110-100	Win	100	9 h 2 m	Show
This spot is fraught with danger for Phoenix. The Suns open a four-game road swing after a highly-satisfying burial of the Lakers two days ago, drawing a semi-desperate Heat squad looking to halt a three-game losing skid. But rather than get involved picking a side, I'm opting to go with the total in this matchup because I believe Under is the best way to go. Miami is a defensive-minded team built to win in that fashion, not by shootouts. Only three teams in the NBA allow fewer points per game than the Heat. Only one has a better defensive field goal percentage. The Heat have held eight of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 100 points during regulation. The Heat have two added veteran ace defenders back in their rotation: recently acquiredTrevor Ariza and Andre Iguodala back from a hip injury. Jimmy Butler is healthy, too. Butler is noted for his offense, but he's also a strong defender. It's a plus for the Under if offensive-minded Goran Dragic remains sidelined. The Suns rank in the top three both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They have held three of their past four opponents to fewer than 102 points. Miami is 27th in scoring and 28th in 3-point shooting. I see this as a playoff-type game with a lot of defensive intensity and slow tempo.
03-22-21	Pacers v. Bucks -9.5		113-140	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
The Pacers have failed to cover during their last five visits to Milwaukee. I see that streak continuing. The Bucks are playing their best ball going 11-1 in their last 12 games, including winning their past six. They have matched up well to the Pacers winning and covering six of the last seven games, including downing Indiana, 130-110, at home early last month. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a Triple Double in that victory. Milwaukee is clicking, in part, because point guard Jrue Holiday is back in the groove and newcomer P.J. Tucker looks like an excellent fit with his defense, professionalism and intensity. The spot sets up extremely well, too, for the Bucks. This is just the Bucks' second game in five days. Indiana, however, is playing its third game in four days and second in two days having gone overtime on Sunday to nip the Heat, 109-106. The Pacers rallied from five down in OT to defeat the Heat for the second time in three days with both wins coming in Miami. This is an extremely difficult feat. So kudos to the Pacers. But they are two levels below the Bucks and aren't likely to have much left in the tank following their road sweep of the Heat.
03-21-21	Lakers +10 v. Suns	Top	94-111	Loss	-108	11 h 34 m	Show
Get ready for a new Pacific Division champion because the defending champion Lakers aren't going to be heard from until the playoffs. Down Anthony Davis and now LeBron James, the Lakers are far from elite anymore. Through some 40-plus games in the season, there are just three elite teams in the Western Conference: the Jazz, Clippers and Suns. The Lakers have been erased from that list. But I don't question the Lakers' heart. They've had 24 hours to digest losing James to a sprained ankle, suffered against the Hawks in a 99-94 home loss Saturday. This will be their first full game since James suffered his ankle injury. LA will be highly motivated to perform well against a rising power especially in this first game of James being out. The Suns are an emerging power. Devin Booker is nearing superstar status. Chris Paul still is highly effective. However, the Suns are young and haven't been in this role before laying such a huge number against this opponent. I doubt the Suns bring their "A" game knowing they already defeated the Lakers by 10 points in LA earlier this month when James was playing. I'm expecting a Suns letdown and a huge effort by the Lakers with the result being an LA cover.
03-21-21	76ers v. Knicks UNDER 215.5		101-100	Win	100	12 h 47 m	Show
The 76ers hosted the Knicks five days ago minus Joel Embiid and his third-ranked 29.9 point scoring average. The 76ers managed to come away with a 99-96 victory for a total of 195 points. Seth Curry and Ben Simmons did play in that game. Curry scored 20 points while Simmons produced 16 points and seven assists. Together they combined to shoot 15-of-29 from the floor. Embiid remains out, but now Curry and Simmons are questionable with injuries. Yet the oddsmaker still has set what I regard as too high of a total. Perhaps he was influenced by the 76ers burying the Kings, 129-105, at home on Saturday despite Philadelphia missing Curry and Simmons. The Kings are ranked 29th defensively giving up 119.6 points. They are coached by Luke Walton. The Knicks are ranked No. 1 in most of the major defensive categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They are coached by Tom Thibodeau, a defensive genius, Before they produced 129 points versus the Kings, the 76ers had been held to 93 points in regulation by the Bucks and 99 by the Knicks in their previous two games. The Knicks are a bottom-three scoring team. They have a cluster injury problem at point guard. Frank Ntilikina, an Under bettor's dream, has been drawing time. The 76ers are well above average defensively ranking seventh in scoring defense and fourth in defensive field goal percentage.
03-21-21	Magic +8.5 v. Celtics		96-112	Loss	-105	7 h 25 m	Show
Aaron Gordon is one of those underrated players who isn't worth anything on the betting line. Maybe he should be. Orlando is 4-1 ATS since Gordon returned from injury. Gordon scored 38 points in helping lead the Magic to a 121-113 win against the Nets this past Friday at home halting Brooklyn's six-game win streak and ending the Magic's nine-game losing streak. So the Magic should enter this matchup with boosted confidence not to mention strong revenge motivation for a 124-97 mid-January road loss to the Celtics during their previous get together. The other part of this handicap is fading Boston. The Celtics are not a team to be backing right now losers of four of their past five, including their last three. Discount a 134-107 win against the Rockets, who have the second-worst record in the NBA, and the Celtics are averaging 106 points during their last four games. Both Orlando and Boston give up an average of 111 points. Orlando would be 6-1 in its last seven games if given more than eight points. So, I ask who are the Celtics to be laying this many points?
03-20-21	Hawks v. Lakers UNDER 223.5		99-94	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
We'll find out just how good the Hawks are with this matinee matchup. Atlanta is 7-0 since replacing Lloyd Pierce with Nate McMillan. The best way to get involved with this game, though, is Under the total. It's easy to think offense with LeBron James and the Lakers. But LA actually ranks second in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game at 106.3. That number shrinks even more to 105.7 if you go by just the last four games. The Hawks have really improved defensively and professionally under the veteran tutelage of McMillan. Atlanta has allowed fewer than 113 points in seven of its last eight games. The Hawks have permitted an average of only 97 points during their past four games. The teams last met on Feb. 1 and there were just 206 points scored in 107-99 Lakers' victory. This also is a rare home day game for the Lakers so the early start time is another checkmark to the Under.
03-18-21	Hornets +8 v. Lakers		105-116	Loss	-106	18 h 53 m	Show
The defending world champion Lakers of LeBron James are the epitome of the big-market, public team. The Hornets are the complete opposite. They are small-market and almost always flying below the radar screen. This often leads to value in backing the Hornets and fading the Lakers - in the right circumstances. This is such a spot. Charlotte is coming off a 129-104 blowout loss to the Nuggets in Denver Wednesday night. The good news for the Hornets from that stinging defeat was none of their players reached the 28-minute playing mark. The Hornets are healthy, which they haven't been, and shouldn't be weary for this matchup especially given their solid team depth. They actually have one of the league's deepest backcourts with potential rookie-of-the-year LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Devonte Graham and Malik Monk. Previous to losing to Denver, the Hornets were 5-1 in their last six games. They are an amazing 11-1 ATS following a non point spread cover. The Lakers are the ones with a bit of a fatigue element as this marks their third game in four days. LA is coming off blowout victories against the Warriors this past Monday and Timberwolves from Tuesday. The Lakers host the hot Hawks, winners of six in a row, on Saturday. So this looms as a real flat spot for LA. Often overvalued when playing at home, the Lakers are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times as home chalk when laying six or more points. So this isn't their best role.
03-18-21	Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 241.5		93-101	Win	100	17 h 24 m	Show
The Pelicans had the biggest choke job of the season when these teams met two days ago in Portland. New Orleans blew a 17-point lead during the final six minutes to lose, 125-124. There were 249 points scored in that game. So why try to make an Under work here besides the obvious of going below an extremely high total? Besides these teams knowing each other's tendencies from having just met and figuring the Pelicans are going to play with super intensity after their massive blown opportunity, a look at Tuesday's box score reveals just what it took to score this many points: New Orleans: Shot 52 percent from the floor, made 16 of 33 shots from 3-point range for 48 percent and hit 16 of 20 free throws for 80 percent. The Pelicans rank 28th in free throw percentage at 73.2 percent and are 19th in 3-point shooting accuracy at 35.8 percent. Prior to Tuesday's game, Portland had given up an average of 113.8 points in its last eight games. That's below average, but not bottom-seven. A total this high is normally reserved for bottom-five type defenses. Portland: The Trail Blazers also shot 52 percent from the field in Tuesday's game and didn't miss a free throw going 31-for-31! The Trail Blazers rank 26th in field goal percentage at 44.8 percent. If you discount a 135-108 loss to the Timberwolves, the Trail Blazers had surrendered an average of just 100 points in their three previous games.
03-17-21	Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 236.5		109-105	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
Joel Embiid was having an MVP-caliber season until he suffered a knee injury two games ago. He's out replaced by a combination of Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard. Embiid averages 29.9 points. Bradley and Howard average a combined 11 points. Rarely do they go to the free throw line either and whey they do there's about a 40 percent chance they will miss. So without Embiid, I see this total as being too high. The 76ers just beat the physical Knicks, 99-96, at home Tuesday night. This marks Philadelphia's third game in four days and second in two nights. A fast-paced, up-tempo game from the 76ers should not be expected especially when the plodding and way over-the-hill Howard is on the floor. The Bucks' defense is down from the past couple of seasons, but they still rank seventh in defensive field goal percentage. Philadelphia ranks fifth in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in scoring defense giving up 110.1 points per game. The Bucks could experience some culture shock having just played the Wizards twice. The Wizards are the worst defensive team in the NBA.
03-16-21	Hawks v. Rockets UNDER 225.5	Top	119-107	Loss	-110	9 h 57 m	Show
Nate McMillan isn't an elite coach. But he's a solid pro and he has the Hawks playing and looking far more respectable than they did under Lloyd Pierce. Atlanta has surrendered an average of just 104.5 points in its last four games. The Hawks have moved into the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage and rank No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage. Houston is last in 3-point shooting percentage. So don't expect the Rockets to hit many 3-pointers. Houston is decimated with injuries, averaging only 99.8 points a game during their last six games. The Cavaliers are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA and they average 103.3 points. Houston may get Danuel House Jr. back, but Christian Wood, John Wall and Eric Gordon are not expected to play leaving just Victor Oladipo as the Rockets' lone respectable scoring threat. Note, too, that 80 percent of the Rockets' home games this season have gone Under at 12-3-1.
03-15-21	Clippers -118 v. Mavs	Top	109-99	Win	100	13 h 23 m	Show
The Clippers may have got caught peeking ahead to this matchup as they lost, 135-115, to the Pelicans on the road Sunday. Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis may come up big here for Dallas, but I want the Clippers going for me in their Revenge Game of the Year. Actually make that Revenge Game of the Century. Recall, if you must, the Clippers hosting the Mavericks two days after Christmas. Dallas absolutely humiliated LA, 124-73. The Mavericks led 77-27 at halftime! It was the biggest halftime deficit ever and the worst defeat in Clippers franchise history - which says a lot. The Clippers haven't been playing well, but they did bury the Warriors, 130-104, this past Thursday before falling to New Orleans. The Warriors just upset the Jazz yesterday. The Clippers shouldn't have a fatigue issue as this is just their third game since March 4. They have covered the past six times when playing without rest. Dallas enters this matchup fat and happy having gone 7-2 in its last nine games and off a highly-satisfying, 116-103, road victory against the Nuggets this past Saturday. Dallas is 6-15 ATS the last 21 times hosting an opponent with a winning road record. The Clippers also have covered in five of their last six visits to Dallas.
03-14-21	Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 223.5	Top	134-107	Loss	-110	13 h 30 m	Show
Down John Wall, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, Danuel House and P.J. Tucker, the Rockets could have the worst offense in the NBA. Houston's offense should pick up as early as Tuesday when Wall and Wood could return. But right now it's terrible. The Rockets are averaging 99.8 points in their last eight games. Boston's defense has been disappointing this season. The Celtics, though, have played average-to-well above average offenses during each of their past dozen games. They also have back defensive whiz Marcus Smart. Now the Celtics finally are drawing an offensively-challenged opponent. Houston Coach Stephen Silas has emphasized defense since becoming the Rockets coach. Houston is on a 15-game losing streak, but the short-handed Rockets showed plenty of moxie in their last game on the road against the powerful Jazz rallying from 26 points down to cut Utah's lead to four points in the fourth quarterback before losing. The Celtics are a below average scoring team when on the road. Boston is averaging only 103.7 points in its past seven away games.
03-12-21	Rockets +17 v. Jazz		99-114	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
As bad as the Rockets are - and they might be the worst team in the NBA with 14 consecutive losses - they have never been more than 10 1/2-point underdogs. Until now. Utah has the best record in the NBA and is home. So I don't dispute the oddsmaker's thinking on making this such a high number. It's justified. I just think circumstances work against Utah covering this large of a number. Yes, the Rockets are way, way down and are going to be missing veteran John Wall, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker. Christian Wood still is out, too. But the Rockets have some youthful talent with Kevin Porter Jr., Jae'Sean Tate, Kenyon Martin Jr. and Sterling Brown. This is their opportunity. So they should play hard. I doubt the Jazz will be motivated to produce an "A" level performance against such a low caliber opponent especially coming off All-Star break. Utah last played nine days ago. Even if the Jazz do build a huge advantage the backdoor should swing wide open for the Rockets to stay within this big of a point spread. That's because the Jazz embark on a five-game, nine-day road trip beginning Sunday at Golden State. So I'm not anticipating Utah's starters to log big minutes here.
03-11-21	Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 222.5		101-134	Loss	-105	11 h 2 m	Show
Except for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Julius Randle, both of whom played in last Sunday's All-Star Game, the rest of the Knicks and Bucks have been idle for a week. So there should be a rust factor. Defensive guru Tom Thibodeau has turned the Knicks into the No. 1 defense in the NBA. New York ranks first in scoring defense holding foes to 104.4 points a game, first in defensive field goal percentage and also is No. 1 in 3-point defense. The Under is 7-1 in New York's last eight road games. The Bucks have averaged just 104.6 points in their last three games as they adjust back to point guard Jrue Holiday, who had been out because of COVID-19.
03-10-21	Wizards v. Grizzlies UNDER 238	Top	112-127	Loss	-110	13 h 46 m	Show
I understand the Wizards play no defense, but have the capability with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to light up the scoreboard thus proving tough to make an Under work. But there are enough factors here to feel confident that this total has been set too high. Beal was the only player from either team to play in last Sunday's All-Star game. All the other players haven't played in six days. That's just too long to go between games without there being a rust factor. Washington hosted Memphis eight days ago. The Grizzlies shot 49 percent from the floor and won, 125-111. The Wizards made 51 percent of their field goals. Beal and Westbrook both played. Yet the combined score came out to 236. This total opened higher. The Grizzlies have given up 112 points or fewer in five of their last six games despite playing the Mavericks, Clippers twice, Bucks and Wizards during this span. Memphis ranks eighth in the NBA defensively allowing 110.8 points. The Wizards have scored 116 points or fewer in regulation in five of their last seven games. They have given up fewer than 118 points in four of their last five games. The Under has cashed in seven of Washington's past nine road contests.
03-04-21	Thunder +7 v. Spurs	Top	107-102	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
It's tough to do after last night's game. I know so well. I had the Thunder plus eight points against the Mavericks on Wednesday attacking the overnight line in the hopes Luka Doncic would be held out. As it turned out this is what I had going in Wednesday's Thunder-Mavericks game: Maximum line value - checkmark. Dallas closed a 5-point favorite. Doncic out - checkmark. He didn't play. Mavericks greatly missing Doncic - checkmark. The Thunder held Dallas to 87 points, which easily was the Mavericks' lowest-scoring game of the season. Thunder getting the cover and the money - No checkmark. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas, 87-78. Words can't adequately express how pissed I was with that result. I bring this up not to vent, although it feels good to unleash this pent-up anger. But to point out in the NBA you can't hold grudges. If the value is there you must get back in the saddle and I see value coming right back with Oklahoma City in this matchup. Yes, the Thunder did play last night. Prior to their game against the Mavericks, though, the Thunder hadn't played since last Saturday. It's San Antonio who has the bigger fatigue issue. This is the Spurs' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Spurs are playing through a short rotation, too, due to illness. Rudy and Derrick White are out. LaMarcus Aldrdige has been logging short minutes and is questionable for this game. Despite the frustrating non-cover against the Mavericks, the Thunder still have covered 28 of their last 40 road contests for 70 percent. The Spurs are 10-25 (28 percent) ATS the last 35 times as home chalk.
03-03-21	Thunder +8 v. Mavs		78-87	Loss	-105	18 h 20 m	Show
I'm locking into the Thunder at this number figuring superstar Luka Doncic is going to play. But Doncic isn't a given to play in this matchup. He's been bothered by lower back tightness. This is Dallas' final game before All-Star break so the Mavericks could choose to hold him to give him extra rest figuring they can still win this matchup without him. Obviously it would be a monster bonus if Doncic is held out. But, again, I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm relying on the Thunder's spunk, the situation and the Mavericks' poor track record in spots like this. Oklahoma City has covered 67 percent of its last 52 road contests. The Thunder are 3-2 in their last five games, but coming off an embarrassing, 126-99, home loss to the Nuggets. That game was played Saturday. So Oklahoma City has had three full days to prepare for this matchup. Dallas, on the other hand, is in action for the third time in five days. The Mavericks have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a home favorite.
03-03-21	Hawks v. Magic +4		115-112	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
I get that Orlando is offensively-challenged and has lost its last four games. But who are the Hawks to be laying a road number like this? Atlanta took advantage of a cold-shooting game by the Jimmy Butler-less Heat on Tuesday to score a 94-80 road win, which halted the Heat's six-game win streak. It was the Hawks' first game since Lloyd Pierce was fired. Nate McMillan is Atlanta's interim coach. Glad the Hawks could win for him. But this sets up a letdown spot for the Hawks and Atlanta isn't nearly good enough to cover road numbers when not playing well unless their opponent turns in an "F" performance like Miami just did. Even beating the Heat last night the Hawks still committed 23 turnovers. Atlanta has talent. But the Hawks lack chemistry and good coaching. McMillan is a stop-gap, who has never proven himself to be more than a mediocre coach at best. Since Feb. 12, the Hawks have been favored four times. They lost straight-up in all four of those games falling to the Thunder, Cavaliers, Knicks and Spurs. Atlanta also is dealing with a fatigue factor. The Hawks are playing for the third time in four days, fourth time in six days and without rest. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS the last 18 times when playing on back-to-back days. The Magic were playing well up until about 10 days ago. They had defeated the Knicks, Warriors and Pistons. Then Detroit beat them in a revenge spot and the Magic followed that up with losses to the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks, although covering versus Dallas. The Hawks are a huge step down in class from the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks.
03-03-21	Bulls +6 v. Pelicans		128-124	Win	100	9 h 22 m	Show
Stan Van Gundy said it himself. The Pelicans can beat any team - and lose to any team. The proof is in the results. New Orleans has lost to the Thunder, Rockets, Rockets, Pistons and Timberwolves. But the Pelicans also have defeated some heavyweights: Bucks, Suns and the Jazz two days ago at home. Now the Pelicans draw the 15-18 Bulls. The Pelicans lack the maturity and track record to overcome this flat spot where they are mid-range favorites. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times as a home favorite. The Bulls had won five of six games before losing to the Suns and Nuggets, both at home. Phoenix and Denver are much better teams than New Orleans. The Bulls have covered seven of the past eight times they've been road 'dogs. They also are 10-2 ATS during their past 12 visits to New Orleans. The Bulls defeated the Pelicans, 129-116, on Feb. 10 as 2 1/2-point favorites. Now look at the spread. It's not justified. Chicago hit a franchise-record 25 3-points in its win against New Orleans. The Bulls could be in line for another big night from 3-point range as the Pelicans rank 28th in 3-point defense.
03-02-21	Nuggets v. Bucks UNDER 235		128-97	Win	100	9 h 55 m	Show
The Bucks are a very good team. But so far they haven't reached the elite level they were during the past two regular seasons. That's because their defense hasn't reached the No. 2 rating that their offense holds. There are signs, though, that Milwaukee's defense is coming around. The Bucks have held their last five opponents to an average of 107.4 points. Milwaukee just held the Clippers, the No. 6 scoring team in the league, 15 points under their season average in a 105-100 home win two days ago. Denver ranks 11th in the NBA defensively. The Nuggets have held their past four opponents to an average of 106.5 points. This is the Nuggets' third game in four days and second in two days. Denver is short four rotation players because of injuries and sickness. So I don't anticipate a fast tempo from the Nuggets.
03-01-21	Hornets v. Blazers -6.5	Top	111-123	Win	100	20 h 32 m	Show
The timing is terrible for Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets pulled off a miracle victory on Sunday night nipping the Kings, 127-126. Charlotte trailed by eight points with 53 seconds left. But a combination of Hornets grit and the incompetent Kings choking allowed Charlotte to steal a victory. Even more remarkable is the Hornets pulled this win out despite not having Gordon Hayward nor Cody Zeller. Hayward is Charlotte's leading scorer while Zeller is their best big man. Both are injured. The Hornets' reward? They have to play again tonight at Portland, a place where they have lost the past 12 times going 2-10 ATS. This will be the Hornets' third road game in four days. Portland was idle this past weekend after losing, 102-93, on the road to the Lakers this past Friday. That was the Trail Blazers' fourth loss in a row. Portland's last three defeats, though, have all been on the road to excellent Western Conference teams - Lakers, Nuggets and Suns. The spot sets up perfectly for the Trail Blazers to stop their losing skid in grand style.
03-01-21	Mavs v. Magic +7		130-124	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
I rank Luka Doncic among the five best players in the NBA. The guy is like a modern day version of Oscar Robertson, who yes I did see back in the day. A triple-double machine. But while Doncic is elite, the Mavericks aren't. Dallas is a .500 team with the record to prove that - 16-16. So I don't see the Mavericks getting away with laying this many road points in a flat spot for them. The Mavericks are coming off an impressive 115-98 Saturday road victory against the Nets, which snapped Brooklyn's eight-game win streak. Dallas' last three games have been against the Celtics, 76ers and Nets. This is the conclusion of its three-game road trip. So I don't see the Mavericks producing another "A" game given the circumstances and motivational letdown facing a much weaker opponent than they've recently met. Historically, Dallas hasn't been good in this role going 5-16 ATS the last 21 times when facing a below .500 opponent. Let's examine the Magic's past six games. They beat improved Knicks and Warriors teams along with the Pistons. But in their last three games, they lost a rematch to the Pistons and were buried by the Nets and Jazz. No shame in losing to Brooklyn and Utah. Orlando was outclassed in those matchups. The Magic won't be so outclassed here and they are in stop-the-pain mode. Orlando actually gives up fewer points per game than Dallas. It's lack of scoring that really hurts the Magic. The combination of having Evan Fournier back - he missed the first meeting between the two teams that Dallas won, 112-98, on Jan. 9 - and the Mavericks' 22nd-ranked defense should help Orlando put up a respectable scoring number to keep this game close.
02-28-21	Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 223.5		133-84	Win	100	6 h 3 m	Show
Discounting their 119 points versus the Wizards, the Rockets are averaging 101 points in their last eight games. That would rank last in the league by a full three points if that is what their scoring average was for the entire season. Houston ranks 26th in shooting percentage and last in 3-point shooting percentage. Not only will Houston be without its leading scorer, injured Christian Wood, but its third-leading scorer, Victor Oladipo, also won't play today due to a quad injury. The Rockets have to rely on their defense to halt their 10-game losing streak. They are a slightly above average defensive team. I'm expecting defensive intensity from both teams. The Grizzlies knocked off the Clippers this past Thursday. They then proceeded to get blown out by the Clippers, 119-99, two days ago in the rematch. LA shot 55 percent from the floor. This is what Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins was quoted as saying about that: "Our defense was average. It wasn't at the level (it needed to be), so the learning lesson is you've got to raise your level and your defense has got to be consistent, night in and night out, especially when you beat a team like the way we did."
02-27-21	Pacers -116 v. Knicks		107-110	Loss	-116	7 h 20 m	Show
The Pacers and Knicks are each one game below .500. I love what Tom Thibodeau has done with the Knicks bringing back defense and respect. But I also like Indiana's first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren. The Pacers have the better roster. They've struggled lately, though, because of a difficult schedule. Indiana is 4-8 in its last 12 games. However, seven of those defeats occurred to the Celtics, Bulls in overtime, Nets, Jazz, Pelicans, Bucks and 76ers. New York, by contrast, has had it much easier. In their last six games, the Knicks have played home games versus the Kings, Warriors, Timberwolves, Hawks and Rockets. Their lone road contest during this span was against the Magic. So record-wise it might not seem like a step up game for the Knicks. But in my opinion it is and the price is right to back the superior team.
02-27-21	Wolves +4 v. Wizards		112-128	Loss	-103	7 h 37 m	Show
There aren't many defenses worse than the Timberwolves. Washington is one such defense. The Wizards give up 119.5 points, which is three more points per game than what Minnesota allows. Washington, though, has been playing well. Thus the Wizards are laying their most points in this calendar year. It makes sense - on the surface. The Wizards are coming off a highly-successful 3-1 West Coast trip that culminated with an upset of the Nuggets this past Thursday night. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA, losers of 10 of their last 11 games. But all of this is on the surface. The reality is the Timberwolves are much improved, too, and the Wizards are in a huge flat spot. The Wizards are in action for the fourth time in six days, all at different venues. This is their first home game following their four-game, seven day trip out West that went far better than expected. On deck for the Wizards is a much bigger conference matchup against the Celtics on Sunday. The Wizards could be looking ahead to that game smelling blood with the Celtics reeling. Minnesota has lost six in a row. But let's examine the Timberwolves' past seven games starting with an upset victory against the Raptors. That was followed by an eight-point loss to the Lakers, an overtime defeat to the Pacers, a five-point loss to the revenge-seeking Raptors, a four-point road loss to the much-improved Knicks, a blowout road loss to the Bucks and an overtime road defeat to the Bulls in a game they should have won and still might have if Karl-Anthony Towns didn't foul out in regulation. The Timberwolves are more respectable now with Towns healthy and Chris Finch as their new coach. Minnesota has been idle the past two days giving Finch needed time to work with his new team. Veteran Ricky Rubio is a good fit with Finch's up-tempo style lessening the impact of the Timberwolves being without D'Angelo Russell.
02-26-21	Hawks v. Thunder +5.5	Top	109-118	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
The Hawks haven't won at Oklahoma City in five years. So I'm not buying the Hawks as this big of a road favorite. Atlanta not only has failed to cover the past three times it was favored, but lost all three of those games straight-up. Atlanta is in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. Not helping their fatigue rating is the Hawks also are short-handed. Not only is De'Andre Hunter, who was having a career season, out but Cam Reddish has missed the last two games with a sore Achilles. There isn't a hotter player in the NBA right now than the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 33.3 points and shooting 64 percent from the field during the past three games. The Thunder have a winning ATS mark as underdogs this season.
02-25-21	Magic +9 v. Nets		92-129	Loss	-110	6 h 38 m	Show
The Nets are the hottest team in the Eastern Conference winners of seven in a row. But I don't think they are that good minus Kevin Durant to keep getting away with laying inflated numbers. Brooklyn didn't play well in its last game two days, but was fortunate to have played the Kings, losers of eight consecutive games. Orlando should provide more of an obstacle for Brooklyn. The Magic have been playing well lately. They had won three in a row beating the Warriors, much improved Knicks and Pistons before losing to Detroit in a rematch during their last game this past Tuesday. Perhaps the Magic were looking ahead to this matchup. Orlando gives up seven fewer points per game than Brooklyn, which has allowed at least 117 points in four of its past six games. The Magic have improved since Evan Fournier returned to the lineup after being injured. He gives Orlando a perimeter threat to go with rugged inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Brooklyn is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as a home favorite. The Magic have covered in each of their last four visits to Brooklyn. They also have covered six of the last seven in the series.
02-24-21	Spurs v. Thunder +1		99-102	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
Kudos to the Spurs if they can beat the Thunder under these circumstances, which are being rusty and severely short-handed. San Antonio hasn't played in 10 days due to a COVID-19 outbreak that hit its team. Among the rotation players out for the Spurs are Rudy Gay and Derrick White. Making it worse, though, for the Spurs is leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, their best player, also is out for personal reasons following his father's death. Remember, too, the Spurs' top big man, LaMarcus Aldridge, has missed the last six games because of a hip injury. He's questionable. San Antonio not only had to deal with COVID, but also the city and state of Texas enduring a winter storm that left many without power or water. So the Spurs' concentration level might not be where it needs to be. Oklahoma City is not a good team by any means. But the Thunder are capable given the right circumstances. They upset the Bucks three home games ago and they hold a backcourt edge on the Spurs with DeRozan out with the tandem of high-scoring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and promising rookie Theo Maledon.
02-24-21	Wolves +4 v. Bulls		126-133	Loss	-106	8 h 55 m	Show
I'm not going to land on the Timberwolves too much, but this is one of those rare spots. Chicago is fat and happy riding a two-game win streak and seeing Zach LaVine being named the first Bulls player to make the All-Star team since 2017. Chicago's victories, however, have come against the Kings, losers of eight in a row, and the Rockets, who also have dropped eight consecutive games. LaVine is the NBA's seventh-leading scorer, but maybe the worst defender in the league. The Timberwolves played their first game under new coach Chris Finch last night. Unfortunately for Finch it came against the Bucks - and the Timberwolves were predictably blown out. This matchup, though, should prove far more even. The Timberwolves have the best big man on the court by far in Karl Anthony-Towns and should play hard for their new coach in what shapes up as a competitive spot. Minnesota actually has been very good in this role - 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. The Timberwolves also have covered eight of their last 10 meetings versus Chicago, who has a losing spread mark this season when favored.
02-24-21	Warriors v. Pacers -120		111-107	Loss	-120	13 h 24 m	Show
Stephen Curry is having a monster season. He and his Warriors, though, can not overcome a huge fatigue factor while taking on a rested home Indiana club that caused the Warriors fits inside when the teams met last month. The Pacers won that game, 104-95, getting a combined 40 points and 26 rebounds from big men Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. This time around the Pacers draw the Warriors playing their fourth road matchup in six days and second in two nights after getting past the Knicks, 114-106, last night. The Warriors have covered just 23 percent of the time the past 23 times when playing without rest. Indiana hasn't played in a week. The Pacers used that time to rest and get in additional practice. Their offense has been humming averaging 120.5 points the past four games. Indiana has won three of its last four.
02-23-21	Celtics -117 v. Mavs		107-110	Loss	-117	9 h 10 m	Show
The Celtics are coming off maybe their most frustrating loss of the season, blowing a 24-point second half lead in a 120-115 overtime loss to the Pelicans this past Sunday. Boston is far from in peak form. The Celtics desperately miss underrated injured guard Marcus Smart. But the Celtics have the coaching with Brad Stevens and firepower with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker to bounce back in what shapes up as a character test for them. Boston usually is good in this role covering seven of the past nine times following a defeat. Dallas is in action for only the second time since Feb. 14. The Mavericks defeated the Grizzlies, 102-92, at home last night. The Celtics are a step up for Dallas. The Mavericks' last eight games have been against mediocre-to-bad teams. The last time Dallas played a strong team was the Suns back on Feb. 1. The Mavericks are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS versus above average teams this season. They also are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
02-23-21	Kings +6.5 v. Nets		118-127	Loss	-108	9 h 13 m	Show
Fat and happy the Nets return to Brooklyn having completed an impressive road sweep. They won five games in nine days with the last coming this past Sunday against the Clippers in a tight and dramatic, 112-108, win. One of the Nets' victories during this road trip was 136-125 against the Kings eight days ago. This is Brooklyn's first home game in two weeks. Why should the Nets care about the Kings, who have lost seven in a row and who they just dismantled? They shouldn't and probably won't. It's a monster letdown spot for the Nets. The Kings have been dangerous in one role - road underdog. They are 23-9 ATS the last 32 times in that situation. Brooklyn also has failed to cover seven of the past nine times it has been favored at home.
02-23-21	Pistons +3.5 v. Magic		105-93	Win	100	9 h 36 m	Show
No matter how bad their roster looks, or how bad their last game was, it can be a mistake to automatically assume the Pistons are always going to get blown out. The youthful Pistons have a certain resiliency to them. Since Jan. 28 they have pulled off upset victories against the Lakers, Nets, Celtics and Pelicans. Orlando just defeated Detroit, 105-96, two days ago at home. The major storyline was Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier combining to score 66 points. But there were three other takeaways from that nine-point Detroit loss that shouldn't be overlooked: No. 1. Detroit shot 37.4 percent from the floor. Detroit shoots 43.5 percent from the floor on the season. Orlando ranks 16th in defensive field goal percentage. No. 2. Orlando shot 29 free throws, eight more free throws than Detroit. The Magic also made 26 giving them a 90 percent free throw shooting percentage. The Magic shoot 78.8 percent from the foul line on the season. No. 3. Dennis Smith Jr. failed to adequately replace starting point guard Delon Wright, who is out for Detroit because of a groin strain. However, rookie Saben Lee stepped up and looked outstanding. This is what Pistons coach Dwane Casey said about Lee's performance: ''He's competitive, he's tough, he just sets the tone. The whole complexion of the game changed when he came in.'' The Pistons have displayed their competitiveness by covering seven of the past 10 times following a loss. They also had covered four straight versus the Magic until that last game.
02-22-21	Blazers v. Suns UNDER 230	Top	100-132	Loss	-105	18 h 37 m	Show
Perception fails to meet reality here. The result is this sets up a solid Under play. Damian Lillard. Chris Paul. Devin Booker. All big stars. Paul is a likely Hall of Famer. The Trail Blazers are averaging 120.4 points in their last five games. The Suns are averaging 128 points in their last three games. So the oddsmaker has good reason to set this high of a total. But on much closer inspection, I find it too high. The Trail Blazers have played five straight below-average defensive teams. The Suns rank fourth in the league in scoring defense allowing 107.8 points. Phoenix has the third-best 3-point defense in the NBA so Lillard does not figure to have an easy time. Portland doesn't have a second consistent scorer with CJ McCollum out. Portland is a bottom-six defense. The Suns, however, are due for some severe offensive regression. They have made 54.1 percent of their 3-point shots (46-for-85) during their last two games. Phoenix's season average from beyond the arch is 37.7 percent, which ranks 11th. Portland has the 12th-best 3-point defense in the league. The Suns have put up their high-scoring totals the past three games going against below averages defenses - Grizzlies, Pelicans and Nets. The aging Paul is a half-court point guard. Because of him, the Suns play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Portland isn't up-tempo either.