No home team has lost a Game 7 in 35 years during the NBA Championship Series. I'm not going to buck that history with an over-the-hill Spurs group that blew their chance to capture the championship just two days ago in choking fashion.


"I'm devastated," Manu Ginobili said moments after the Spurs lost a five-point lead with 25 seconds left in Game 6.


It would be difficult for the Spurs to bounce back from that devastating loss if they were at home. Being on the road makes it even more difficult.


Miami's superstars - LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh - are all in their prime. James is without question the best player in the world. Wade and Bosh are playing much better than they were earlier in the series.


The Spurs' big stars - Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili - can't match Miami's trio. Duncan is 37. He turned back the hands of time to produce 30 points and 17 points in Game 6 while playing more than 44 minutes. I can't see him producing a performance close to being that good on such a short turnaround.


Parker missed 17 of 23 shots from the floor this past Tuesday. Since playing well in the opener of this series, his play has been spotty. Ginobili had eight turnovers in Game 6. He's not even a star anymore.


Perhaps a role player could emerge as a big hero. But that's more likely to come from the home team. No, this final matchup is going to come down to the aces. The Heat have the better ones, are home and in a better frame of mind. I want them going for me in this all-or-nothing game.

The last three games in this championship series have zoomed over the total. I've gone over in each of these three games, too. The market is convinced the high scoring is going to continue as they've bet the over/under up.



I'm not convinced, though. I'm going under in this Game 6.



I don't see the Spurs having their phenomenal outside shooting success in Miami. The Heat are an underrated defensive team and they're going to be concentrating harder on the defensive end. That means a lot of 1-on-1 defending, which tires them out and takes away some of their offensive focus. The under has cashed in Miami's last four home contests.



A big factor in these last couple games going over was Miami coach Erik Spoelstra's decision to go small. The key moves being inserting high-scoring but defensive-challenged Mike Miler into the starting lineup for Udonis Haslem and also benching high-energy big man Chris Andersen, an excellent rebounder.



That worked well in Game 4, but the Spurs adjusted in Game 5 by going small, too. They outscored Miami, 50-40, in the paint. The Heat can't let that continue. So Spoelstra is likely to return to his original starting lineup where Haslem and Andersen play bigger minutes. That's huge for the under.



Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will then counter and give additional minutes to center Tiago Splitter, an excellent defender. The Spurs are at their defensive best when Tim Duncan and Splitter are on the court at the same time.



It's a perceived given that the Heat are going to bounce back and win this game. But the Heat have tons of pressure. The Spurs know how to win pressure road playoff games and close out series.



I see the Heat relying heavily on LeBron James to take their shots while they work the clock down. James is having a subpar series by his lofty standards shooting 43.6 percent from the floor.



The Spurs will apply the necessary defensive pressure. They are 16-4-1 during their past 21 road games. That's an 80 percent under rate.

The Heat have another gear. The Spurs don't. The Heat's Big Three are in their prime. Two of the Spurs' Big Three are past their prime and Tony Parker isn't 100 percent with hamstring and calf injuries.



Miami has held Parker to an average of 11.3 points per game during the last 3 games. Ginobili is shooting 34.5 percent from the field during the series. Duncan is shooting 41.5 percent from the floor in the series.



Contrast this with the Heat where LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh put together their best game of the series in Thursday's Game 4 109-93 victory. James was near unstoppable making 15 of 25 shots from the field, Wade was his old superstar self with 32 points and Bosh got his confidence going chipping in with 20 points.



The Heat turned up the intensity and the difference was startling. The Heat stepped up in the fourth quarter in Game 4 finishing on an incredible stretch of scoring 51 points in 32 possession, which averages out to 159.4 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs can't match that kind of production.



I see the Heat building on this. They have it together again. San Antonio doesn't and doesn't have the capability. The pressure is squarely on San Antonio to win this Game 5 home game. It's a new thing for some of the key San Antonio contributors such as Gary Neal and Danny Green. Not so for the Heat. They've been through this and their Big Three thrive on it.



The Heat have covered 21 of their last 28 road games. They are 15-6 ATS on the road when playing an opponent with a winning home mark.

The combined points have gone up in each of the four games played during this championship series culminating with 202 points being reached in Game 4.


The oddsmaker isn't reacting enough to this. Once again, he's set too low of a total. Look for this high-scoring trend to continue in today's Game 5.


Miami coach Erik Spoelstra has made a key adjustment. He's gone small surrounding versatile superstar LeBron James with four wing players. One of these wing players is Mike Miller, an ultimate over player who scores big points but plays little defense.


This spread out offense has helped free things up for Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, who returned to their normal star status in Game 4 with their best games.


The Spurs are at their defensive best when Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter, a top-notch defensive player, are on the court at the same time. Splitter, though, is playing far less because of the Heat's switch to small ball.


Duncan and Manu Ginobili are shooting horribly during the series. They are due to shoot much better, especially Duncan who is going to get one-on-one chances and will be operating against a smaller defender with rugged Miami big man Udonis Haslem odd man out in Spoelstra's small ball attack.


Miami and San Antonio are two of the best offensive teams in the league. Both teams are more wide open than perceived.


The over has cashed the past five times the Spurs have been home, while the Heat have gone over in four of their last five away games.

San Antonio 113, Miami 77. That was Tuesday's Game 3 final score, the worst loss in the history of the Big Three era in Miami.



So what happens now in Game 4? Miami wins that's what. The Heat haven't lost consecutive games since Jan. 8 and Jan. 10. Miami is 11-0 SU and ATS following its last 11 defeats. The Heat don't just win these games either - they slaughter the opposition. They are 5-0 SU and ATS during the playoffs following a loss winning these matchups by an average of 21.6 points.



LeBron James, in particular, is going to be highly motivated after the Spurs stung his pride by holding him to 2-of-13 shooting from the floor in Game 3. The Spurs are a good defensive team, but they've had much better defensive clubs during the Gregg Popovich era. This was more a case of James not hitting shots that he usually makes.



Despite being down 2-1 in the series, the Heat have outplayed the Spurs in seven of the 12 quarters. The Spurs are 4-10 ATS the past 14 times when reaching triple digits in their previous game.



The Heat have more than proven themselves on the road covering 20 of their last 27 away matchups. They are 14-6 ATS on the road versus foes with a winning home mark.



Tim Duncan is struggling shooting 37 percent (16-for-43) from the floor in the series. Manu Ginobili no longer is an elite player and Tony Parker is dealing with a hamstring injury. While it's a stretch to hope Parker doesn't play, he figures to be less than 100 percent. Parker is the one player the Spurs must have playing at a high level.

Through three games in this NBA Championship Series, we have yet to have both teams shooting their normal high percentages from the floor, or getting a lot of free throw chances.



That's going to change. The Spurs have figured out the Heat's trapping defense. They broke through for 113 points in Game 3. Tim Duncan is shooting just 37 percent from the field. His shooting is due to rise.



LeBron James is due for a big game, too, after missing 13 of 15 shots from the floor in Game 3. His off-shooting was more a result of missing shots he normally makes than great defense from San Antonio.



The Heat aren't playing the Bulls or Pacers. The Spurs aren't in that defensive class. The Heat have the ability to rev up to another gear like they did in Game 2 when they scored 103 points. That game missed going over the total by one point because Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili shot a combined 10-for-33 from the floor.



The total barely crept over in Game 3 despite James being held to 17 points and Miami getting only 10 free throw attempts. The oddsmaker hasn't budged from where the total has been for the last two games.



If everything goes according to Hoyle, the over should cash again because the oddsmaker have set too low of an over/under.

There have been two games in this championship series. Both have gone under. Now's the time to go over.



The Spurs and Heat were rusty in Game 1. In Game 2, the Heat matched their regular-season field goal percentage and scored 103 points. The Spurs, though, were held to 84 points. So the over missed covering by one point.



Both teams want to run. The Spurs are used to a wide open style being in the Western Conference. They've had great defensive teams in the past. This year's team is more about offense. San Antonio ranked fourth in scoring averaging 103 points per game and were No. 2 in field goal percentage in back of Miami during the regular season.



The Heat felt shackled and forced into half-court basketball during their last two series, going against two of the top three defensive teams in Chicago and Indiana. Those were intense, half-court grudge type matchups. This one isn't.



The Heat's bench scoring has picked up and Chris Bosh showed signs this past Sunday of coming out of his funk.



There were only 28 combined free throws shot in Game 2. The Spurs' Big Three - Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker - were a horrendous 10-for-33 shooting from the floor. They don't figure to have an off night like that again, especially with the series moving to San Antonio.



Despite all this, the over just missed covering in Game 2. A normal performance by these teams should ensure the total going over this time around.

The scoreboard after Game 1 read Under. But the reality is Over for Game 2 of the championship series.


The total is down a tick from Game 1. That's good line value. The handicap matches, too.


San Antonio beat Miami, 92-88. That's a combined 180 points. The Spurs were rusty. The Heat flat and still savoring a Game 7 Eastern Conference finals victory against the rugged Pacers.


The Spurs and Heat combined to shoot 69-for-162 from the field for 42.5 percent. They shot just a combined 35 free throws.


San Antonio averaged 103 points and shot 48.1 percent from the floor during the regular season. Miami averaged 102.9 points and led the NBA in field goal percentage at 49.6.


Given the rust and adjustment factor, it's not surprising the teams went well under their season scoring and shooting averages. This is playoff basketball, after all, where defense rules and teams get more conservative.


But I saw enough evidence that indicated these teams want to run and play a fun, wide-open style. David Stern and the league sure wouldn't mind that.


The Heat have played two of the top three defensive teams during the past two series in the Pacers and Bulls. Those were intense, half-court grudge type matchups, which detracted from the artistic style of LeBron James and Dwayne Wade.


This physical, half-court style isn't the way they play in the West where the Spurs reside. The Spurs were able to hold the Heat down because Chris Bosh couldn't hit open outside shots.


The perception, now fortified with a misleading Game 1 totals result, is this is going to be tight-checking, defensive series. Neither team would prefer that, however. They rely on their superstars playing their normal free-flowing games.


Look for much improved shooting and better offensive adjustments in Game 2 resulting in the total going Over.

The first four games of this Eastern Conference Finals series went over the total by a combined 44 points. The last two went under by a combined 29 1/2 points.


So what happens here with Game 7? The under trend continues is the way I see it. The Pacers win with defense and playing half-court. They are certainly not going to go away from that style in this pivotal Game 7. The Heat are an underrated defensive team. They can play defense as well as any team when they want to - and they certainly want to here.


The combination of a cautious, half-court game with neither team opting to take chances should result in a third straight low-scoring game.


We know the Pacers aren't a big scoring team. They were 23rd in scoring during the regular season and 26th in field goal percentage. The Heat are far more explosive. However, their key bench scorers are cold, Dwayne Wade is far from 100 percent and Chris Bosh is in a funk.


Ray Allen and Shane Battier are a combined 15-for-62 (24%) from the floor in the series. They have missed a combined 30 of 39 shots from beyond the arc. They can't be counted on and neither can Wade nor Bosh. Wade is averaging 12 points during the last three games while shooting 32 percent from the floor during this span. Bosh is averaging a puny 6.3 points in his last three games on 24 percent shooting from the field.

I don't see the Heat closing out the Pacers in Indiana. The Pacers have been right there with the Heat and could just as easily be ahead 3-2 in the series instead of down 3-2.


The Heat, with one exception, have yet to put together one great game. Dwayne Wade isn't 100 percent because of a bad knee, Chris Bosh isn't having a good series and key reserves Shane Battier and Ray Allen are a combined 13 for 54 shooting from the floor for 24 percent.


The Pacers, for the most part, have played with more energy than Miami. The Heat have been doing too much standing around waiting for LeBron James to bail them out. That's not going to work against a motivated, upper tier defensive club at home such as the Pacers with their playoff lives on the line.


While James has drawn the publicity and attention, Pacers center Roy Hibbard has quietly been a dominant force for Indiana. The Heat haven't had an answer for him.


This Game 6 matchup comes down to either the Heat pushing tempo and maintaining its attack mode, or the Pacers physically holding off Miami with an effective half-court style. I see the half-court, slow down game winning out, especially with the game in Indiana where the Pacers have covered seven of the past eight times.


Note, too, that Miami has failed to cover the past four times following a victory.

Indiana played very well during the first two games of this Eastern Conference Championship Series. But the Heat are the superior team. They have figured out the right formula to beat the Pacers' vaunted defense, regained their confidence following a Game 3 18-point road blowout win and have the personnel to beat the Pacers again.



Just how good is Miami? Try this: The Heat are 23-1 in their last 24 road games and have broken an NBA record with five straight double-digit road playoff victories. There is a reason for this - the Heat are extremely focused on the road knowing they must step up. The Pacers have to counter not only with their A game to stay close, but with maybe their finest performance of the season.


The Heat can play at a higher level. They proved it Sunday in Game 3. The Pacers did as well as they could in Miami. They are not capable of raising their game anymore - and the result was their worst home loss of the season.


I have no doubt the effort will be there for the Pacers. However, Indiana lacks the personnel and depth to counter what the Heat have done by having LeBron James operate more from the post. The Pacers are going to have to double-team James after he sparked Miami into scoring 70 first-half points while committing just five turnovers.



This goes against what the Pacers have done successfully all season and that's play man-to-man. You can talk 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert all you want, but the bottom line is the Heat outscored the Pacers, 52-36, in the paint. James is the most dominating player since Michael Jordan. I want him on my side.



The Heat have an unconventional style. They can burn teams with their perimeter game especially when James is double-teamed. Miami also isn't a traditional pick-and-roll team that the Pacers defend well against since Miami doesn't really have the big men to do the screening. Instead the Heat operate their pick-and-roll with wing players who can handle the ball such as James and Ray Allen. The Heat are that rare team with the versatility to do this and the superstar who, like Jordan, can beat any type of defense.


Miami needed to step up. The Heat lived up to the challenge. I don't see them stepping back down.

Conventional wisdom is the Grizzlies easily win this game down 2-0 and at home. Certainly that's where the early money on this game has gone.



But I see things differently. And it's not just from a value standpoint either.



The Spurs didn't just beat Memphis during the first two games of this Western Conference finals. They dominated them except for the fourth quarter of Game 2 when the veteran Spurs were fatigued.



San Antonio and Tony Parker, though, caught a huge scheduling break. The teams have had three days off. The rest greatly helps Parker and no coach is better with extra preparation time than San Antonio's Gregg Popovich.



The Grizzlies rely on outstanding defense and Zach Randolph scoring. Popovich has countered both of them. The Spurs are averaging 99 points a game and have held Randolph to 7-for-26 shooting from the floor for 27 percent by taking him out of his comfort zone.



Mike Conley played well in Memphis' series victories against the Clippers and Thunder, but he's been dominated by Parker. Some have jumped on Memphis' bandwagon because of the Grizzlies taking out the Clippers and Thunder.



Those victories, however, appear overrated now. The Clippers had a weak coach, Vinny Del Negro, while the Thunder was without Russell Westbrook. They couldn't overcome his loss.



The Spurs' bench has outplayed the Grizzlies' reserves and Popovich is doing another masterful job of coaching not allowing the Grizzlies to get into their comfort zone and play their style.



It's a leap of faith to just assume the Grizzlies can completely change things around - and cover what's become a mid-range spread - against a veteran, championship-test squad with the best coach.



The Spurs smell blood just like they did against the Lakers. They also haven't forgotten how the Grizzlies upset them as a No. 8 seed during the first round of the 2011 playoffs ending what could have been a championship season for them.

The Pacers are putting up a brave front, but losing the way they did in Game 1 on LeBron James' layup at the buzzer - with 7-foot-2 defensive whiz Roy Hibbert sitting on the bench in a brutal coaching mistake - has to sting.


Indiana played a strong game. Miami didn't. Yet the Heat still won - without playing close to their A game. The Heat shot 64 percent from the foul line, committed 21 turnovers, missed 13 of 18 shots from 3-point range and key reserves Ray Allen, Shane Battier and Norris Cole combined to miss 14 of 16 shots from the floor.


Expect huge improvement from Miami in Game 2 from all those areas now that the rust is off and the urgency factor has struck home.


The Heat was similarly flat in Game 1 during their last series against Chicago after a long layoff. The Heat ended up losing that one - their only playoff loss in 10 games. In Game 2 of that series, the aroused Heat blew the Bulls out by 37 points!


Miami is well aware that the Pacers won Game 2 in Miami last year when the teams met in a second-round series. I see the Heat stepping it up just like they did in Game 2 versus the Bulls.


Heat are 46-3 in their last 49 games. They are 9-1 in the playoffs, covering in six of their nine victories. The Pacers had a losing road record during the regular season. They have a losing spread record in the playoffs. I can't see them staying with the Heat for a second straight time in a span of three days on the road.

Yes, Miami has the makings of a great team. But who have the Heat beaten so far? The answer is the Bucks, the worst team in the playoffs, and the crippled, depleted Bulls.


Now the Heat are laying a big number - more than the key number of seven in what is lined to be a low-scoring game - against the team that was No. 2 in defense, first in defensive field goal percentage and led the league in rebounding.


Indiana beat Miami two of three during the regular season. Miami hasn't played in a week. The last time the Heat went so long without game action they lost at home to the Bulls in Game 1 of their last series.


The Pacers have the size, rebounding and defensive stopper in Paul George to pose problems for Miami, especially when the Heat figure to be rusty. The Pacers can't match the Heat's depth, but this is Game 1. There is no wear and tear yet.


On paper, it looks like a mismatch. LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are all bigger names than any Indiana player. But Wade has been limited by a right knee injury. His playoff scoring is down nearly 12 points from his career average and Bosh is in uncharted waters this deep into the playoffs having been hurt at this time last year.


Bosh is going to have to match up to the taller Roy Hibbert, who provides a rare center presence the Heat lack. Miami finished last in rebounding.


The Pacers won two of the first three playoff games against Miami last season. The Pacers outscored Miami in last year's series when Hibbert played. George could be the best defender James faces in the playoffs.


Hibbert, George and Lance Stephenson have all elevated their games. David West and George Hill are underrated players.


No, these blue collar types can't match Miami in star power, but they have enough going to keep things close.

It's hard to go against Memphis these days. The Grizzlies are on one of the greatest playoff spread runs covering in their last 10 games! They are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games.



Memphis also has covered in its last five road games, while San Antonio is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home contests. The Spurs also are just 4-12 ATS the last 16 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.



These trends and angles clearly favor Memphis. But there's more than that in liking the Grizzlies to cover in this Game 1 matchup.



No team plays better defense than the Grizzlies. Memphis was No. 1 during the regular season and kept up its outstanding defense during the playoffs. The Grizzlies held the Clippers to two of their lowest-scoring games in their playoff history. The Grizzlies then kept the Thunder from never scoring more than 97 points in any games. The Thunder averaged 105.7 points during the regular season.



Facing this defense, with so many different components, is going to be tough for San Antonio especially after just facing a completely opposite style. Golden State was up-tempo. The Grizzlies are half-court. They like to pound away rather than fire up 3-pointers. It's going to take the Spurs a while to adjust.



San Antonio started off slow in its series against Golden State splitting the first two at home. The Spurs were lucky not to open that series down 0-2.



Tony Parker is a great player. But the Grizzlies have several excellent defenders, including Tony Allen. Their point guard, Mike Conley, is underrated and playing at a high level. He's averaging 17.6 points in the playoffs. Thanks in large part to Conley, the Grizzlies are averaging the fewest turnovers during the postseason.



Tim Duncan is past his prime, while the Grizzlies' main inside players, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, are in their respective prime.



The Grizzlies aren't going to be intimidated by the Spurs either. They are not an upstart like the Warriors, who hadn't made the playoffs since 2007. The Grizzlies eliminated San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs last year in six games going 5-0-1 ATS in the process.

I see the Spurs closing out the series in this Game 6 at Golden State. Except for the last couple minutes in Game 4, the Spurs have been in complete control during these last three games.


The Spurs are healthier, have a stronger bench and more quality players. This is the Warriors' sixth game against San Antonio in 11 days and they are wearing down. Stephen Curry is slowed by a nagging sprained ankle. Remember, too, that David Lee is out giving the Warriors a short bench. That takes a toll this late in the season and series. The quick turnaround from having just played on Tuesday favors the Spurs, too.


Coaching guru Gregg Popovich has made key adjustments and come up with the right defensive schemes after the Spurs were flat in the first two games of the series. He has Danny Green shadowing Klay Thompson and has been rotating Kawhi Leonard and Gary Neal and others on Curry. The result is Curry and Thompson's shooting and scoring has been going down.


Going back during the past 71 instances, the visiting higher-seed playing on the road in Game 6 has covered 59 percent of the time.

Oklahoma City is a strong play here both from a mental standpoint and matchup perspective.


This is the ultimate Must-Win game for the Thunder down 3-1 in the series. It's not only horrible to lose the series, but to do it at home would be humiliating. So a full effort should be forthcoming from Oklahoma City with a tremendous sense of urgency and pride.


Meanwhile the Grizzlies know, or it's at least it's in the back of their minds, that they can afford to lose this game, will still be up 3-2 and can clinch the series at home in Game 6.


The Grizzlies have been playing too casual and overconfident. They were lucky to cover both of their victories in Memphis during the last two games. The Thunder couldn't catch any breaks during those two games. They are due breaks in this game.


Oklahoma City is used to pressure situations and is playoff tested. The Thunder reached the championship series last season. They have shown signs lately of coming together without Russell Westbrook. Proper adjustments have been made. Serge Ibaka, Kevin Martin and Reggie Jackson are back in the mix making key contributions. They were a combined 18-for-33 shooting from the floor in Game 4. Those players are keys with the Grizzlies forced to pay much attention to the great Kevin Durant.


This is a rare situation where the lower-seeded visiting Grizzlies are ahead 3-1 in the series. There have been only 38 cases since 1990 where that situation has occurred. The higher-seeded home team has won 31 of the 38 times for 81 percent. They have covered 62 percent of the time in those instances.

On the surface, things look bleak for New York. The Knicks are down 2-1 to the Pacers, J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin are battling the flu bug and there is internal strife over questionable shot selection.



Oh, yes, the Knicks have yet to win at Indiana in three tries this season.



Despite all this, I see the Knicks stepping up and giving the Pacers all they can handle in this pivotal Game 4. The Knicks are more resilient and have more character than what may be perceived.



New York has covered in 10 of its last 14 road games. The Knicks are 6-1 ATS following a loss. The Knicks' manhood and pride has been stung with recent criticism. Carmelo Anthony and Smith are a combined 40-for-112 (35 percent) from the floor against the Pacers. Indiana plays outstanding defense, but Anthony and Smith can score against any opponent. They are due to shoot much better.



The Pacers have yet to prove they can handle success well. They were up 2-1 against Miami last year in the playoffs and were home for Game 4. They lost that game and the next two to get eliminated. In this series, Indiana was up 1-0 against the Knicks and were buried in Game 2.



The playoffs are about making constant adjustments. In handicapping terms, it's about zigging and zagging. This is the Knicks' turn to show up well.

Memphis surprisingly played terrible in Game 3, its first home game in this series against Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies shot only 40 percent from the floor and were even uncharacteristically outrebounded with the Thunder grabbing seven more rebounds and outscoring Memphis, 44-30, in the paint.



Yet the Grizzlies still won by six points, covering the spread. This is not a good omen for the Thunder, who are dazed and confused.



The Grizzlies had the best defense in the NBA during the regular season holding foes to 89 points a game. Their defense is telling the story in this series, taking full advantage of the Thunder missing Russell Westbrook. The Grizzlies are throwing defenses at the Thunder they haven't seen all season and can't adjust to without Westbrook.



Durant is getting his points, but the rest of the Thunder are coming up short shooting a combined 62-for-172 (36 percent) from the floor. Durant took 26 shots in Game 1. In Game 2, he had 21 attempts and then 19 in Game 3. Part of his decrease in shots is passing off to teammates, who aren't converting. The Grizzlies limited Durant to only two points in the fourth quarter of Game 3.



Westbrook commanded double teams as much as Durant. The Grizzlies have the defenders to take advantage of Westbrook's absence unlike the Rockets. The Thunder averaged nearly 106 points during the regular season. They matched that in dispatching defensively-challenged Houston in their first-round series.



But the Grizzlies have tenacious defenders. The Thunder aren't getting the wide-open looks beyond the arc they used to get. The Grizzlies have held the Thunder to 89 points a game, nearly 17 points fewer per game than what they averaged during the season. I don't see the Thunder being able to properly adjust either. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day rest.



Oklahoma City's task is made more difficult playing this Game 4 at FedEx Forum. Memphis has won 18 of its last 19 home games there. The Grizzlies are averaging better than 100 points at home during the playoffs. They have covered the past eight times when facing a foe with a winning record.



Look for the Grizzlies to win this one by far more than six points.

Golden State outplayed San Antonio in splitting the first two games of this series in San Antonio. But the Warriors lost their confidence and momentum when they dropped Game 3 at home this past Friday night.


The Spurs are an extremely well-coached, savvy, experienced team that has won championships before with their players and has a legitimate shot to do it again this season. The Warriors are in uncharted waters. They last made the playoffs in 2007.


The NBA isn't like baseball or football. Dues have to be paid. Teams don't just jump two tiers into the championship series.


The Warriors would have a hard enough time beating the Spurs if Stephen Curry were 100 percent, but he's far from that. Curry could barely walk during Friday's game because of an ankle injury. He's not going to be anywhere close to 100 percent today. He's not helped either by the short turnaround since this game starts at 12:30 p.m. local time.


The Spurs outshot the Warriors, 50.6 percent to 39.3 percent from the field, in Game 3 by limiting Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 12-for-37 shooting from the floor. The Spurs smell the kill just like they did in sweeping the Lakers, who were without Kobe Bryant.


The money line price is cheap enough to go that route with San Antonio.

Indiana is better than New York and is at home. The Pacers are far more intimidating when playing at home. Indiana can cover this number without having to play its A game.



The Pacers defeated the Hawks in the opening round three times at home and all were by double-digits. They also were 2-0 at home against the Knicks at home during the regular season winning by five and 34 points.



The Knicks need Carmelo Anthony to produce and I don't see that happening against Paul George and the smothering Pacers' defense. He's been cold throughout much of the playoffs and I don't see that changing here. The Pacers were No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game.



J.R. Smith is too immature and distracted to step up and help Anthony out. The Knicks haven't been getting much from their bench either. Amare Stoudemire is expected to return, but that's not necessarily a positive for New York. Stoudemire is going to be rusty, probably create chemistry issues and clash with ball hog Anthony.



The Knicks had to win Game 2 after dropping the series opener at home. They did, but the Pacers - in a flat spot - were right there with New York for three quarters.



The teams haven't played since Tuesday. The long layoff helps the Pacers more because they win by defense while the Knicks' offense can get out of sync. Indiana is 10-4 ATS when playing with three or more days rest.

The Thunder was able to sustain the loss of Russell Westbrook and get past the defensively-challenged Houston Rockets. Westbrook's loss, though, really hurts the Thunder on the road against the Grizzlies, the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA.



As great a scorer as Kevin Durant is, the Thunder was built more around the multi-talented Westbrook. Durant is having a good series, but the rest of the Thunder are shooting a combined 39-for-96 for 40 percent from the field. Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins is willing to give Durant his points and stop everybody else. That strategy is sound.



Memphis has held Oklahoma City to 93 points in each of the first two games. That's 12 points under what the Thunder averaged per game during the regular season. If it weren't for Derek Fisher connecting on six of eight 3-point attempts, the Grizzlies would be up 2-0 in the series.



The teams last met four days ago. The Thunder are all about offense. The Grizzlies all about defense. Defense wins out especially with extra preparation time. The Thunder figure to be rusty having this much time off this late in the season, while the Grizzlies can fine tune their already top-ranked defense. The long resting period gives Memphis more defensive energy.



That allows the Grizzlies to clamp down more on Durant with fresh legs. Durant figures to have to deal with Mike Conley, who played great defense on Chris Paul in the last series, and defensive stalwart Tayshawn Prince.

The last time Miami visited United Center it lost 101-97 to the Bulls. That defeat put an end to the Heat's 27-game winning streak.


So don't expect Miami to be overconfident, or be less than 100 percent motivated, after destroying Chicago in Game 2, 115-78.


Was that score a fluke. Yes and no. The Heat aren't going to win by 37 points again, but there is enough evidence that indicates Miami winning by double-digits.


The Bulls can't compete without Derrick Rose, Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich if Miami plays it's A or B game. That was evident in Game 2 when the Heat went on a 62-20 run. The scary thing about that span was LeBron James contributed only three points during it.


Miami dominated the paint against the Bulls shredding their defense by outscoring Chicago inside, 56-18.


Except for that Game 1 loss to the Bulls when they were obviously rusty and overconfident, the Heat have played well. Discount that performance and the Heat are on an 11-2 covering run. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.


Chicago has failed to cover in six of its last eight home games. This isn't a surprise since the Bulls have been disappointing at United Center all season going 15-29 ATS.

Miami received a wake-up call in Game 1 against the Bulls not only failing to cover a double-digit spread but losing straight-up. The Heat are the superior team, at home, are no longer rusty and won't be caught by surprise.



Add it all up and I see the Heat winning easily especially with the Bulls minus Luol Deng and probably Kirk Hinrich again. Chicago put together tremendous, gutty performances in winning road games on Saturday in Game 7 against the Nets and then just two nights ago against Miami. It's asking way too much of any team - let alone one as battered as the Bulls - to come up big on the road a third consecutive time.



The Bulls gambled in Game 1 by packing the middle trying to close the lane against LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. This gave the rest of Miami's players good perimeter looks. The Heat, though, missed 17 of 24 3-point shots. The Heat are a much better 3-point shooting team than that. They led the league in 3-pointers made from the corners and were second in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. Rust shouldn't be a factor either after the long layoff from Miami's first-round sweep of Milwaukee until it played the Bulls.

Going into Game 1 of this series, Memphis had won four straight playoff games all by double-digits. The Grizzlies played a strong game against the Thunder, but Oklahoma City managed to pull out the victory thanks to some late Memphis turnovers.


That loss takes some of the sharpness off the Grizzlies while the Thunder showed they could protect their home-court despite not playing as well as Memphis. This sets up a Game 2 play on the Thunder, who should play much better.


Kevin Durant has scored at least 20 points in 33 consecutive playoff games. He's the second-best player in the NBA next to LeBron James.


The Thunder need more than Durant, though, to overcome the loss of Russell Westbrook. They are getting that from Kevin Martin, who is proving scoring with back-to-back 25-point games on 15-of-27 shooting from the floor, and floor leadership from Reggie Jackson. He did a nice job running the offense for Oklahoma City in Game 1 and is an improving player.


The Thunder's big men didn't shoot well in Game 1, but they showed that Memphis can't dominate the boards as Oklahoma City outrebounded Memphis.

Kudos for the Bulls for pulling out a gutty Game 7 road victory against the Nets.


That, however, occurred just two nights ago. I don't see the Bulls being physically ready to stay close to the well-rested and much superior Heat with such a quick turnaround.


Not helping matters for Chicago is the poor health of Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. Deng missed Game 7 of the Nets game and is out for this matchup while Hinrich has missed the past three games with a calf injury. Chicago has others playing at less than 100 percent, too.


The Bulls have failed to cover eight of the last nine times following a victory.


Look for the Heat to make an early statement by steamrolling Chicago. The Heat are itching to go and aren't going to let up. It was the Bulls, remember, who ended Miami's 27-game winning streak. The Heat haven't forgotten.

Both Indiana and New York clinched their respective first-round series this past Friday. The short turnaround favors the Pacers even though they are the road team because the Knicks have far more age on them.


Indiana plays much stronger defense and is healthier. Amare Stoudemire won't be ready for this game and Carmelo Anthony re-aggravated his sore left shoulder during Friday's victory against the Celtics.


I can't see the Knicks winning by a mid-size margin if Anthony doesn't have a good shooting game. Anthony didn't shoot well versus Boston and the Pacers ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in scoring defense allowing 90.7 points per game. Indiana regained its defensive and rebounding dominance in its last two games. They held the Knicks to 37 percent shooting in their four regular-season meetings.


The Knicks have the flashier players. They also are a more immature team despite having more veterans than the Pacers. They are the more likely team to be flat off their first playoff series win in 13 years.

The Pacers are superior to Atlanta and have better team chemistry to handle the pressure. The Hawks lack of maturity showed again in Game 5 when they lost 106-83.


Indiana re-established its defensive and physical dominance in that game. Pacers coach Frank Vogel also made the right adjustments tweaking his rotation.


The Hawks have talent. But they don't have great chemistry or resilience. I also question their toughness and clutch ability, especially with all the pressure on them at home. I don't see them getting good looks at the basket against the Pacers, who ranked first in defensive field goal percentage.


The Hawks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games at Philips Arena.

I don't think the Celtics have too much left in the tank after winning the last two games. Teams that have come back to force a Game 7 after being behind 3-0 are 3-100. That's a strong history to overcome especially for an aged Boston team lacking a true point guard.


The Knicks are the better team. They've been too cocky, but they'll be ready for this matchup.


New York is 3-1 when J.R. Smith plays. I see the Knicks, who averaged a league-high 10.93 3-pointers per game, having a much better shooting game. They have missed 40 of 52 shots from 3-point range during the last two games with Carmelo Anthony going 0-for-12. That's not going to continue.


The Knicks are 7-2 ATS the past nine times they've played an opponent with a winning home mark. New York also is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games at Boston.

Yes, the Bulls are banged up. But they have home-court, a superior coach in Tom Thibodeau and the stronger defense. That's enough for the Bulls to prevail in this key Game 6 matchup.


The last thing the Bulls want is to travel to Brooklyn for a decisive Game 7 on Saturday.


A lot is being made of Chicago's wounded lineup. However, Joe Johnson is basically playing on one leg as he deals with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. That's a serious injury. The Nets must have strong shooting performances from Deron Williams and Johnson to beat the Bulls, who ranked third in defense during the regular season holding foes to 92.9 points a game. Bothered by his sore foot, though, Johnson has missed 15 of 18 shots from beyond the arc during the last three games.


The Nets need to quicken the pace and get out in the open court to combat the Bulls' tough defense and to exploit Chicago's lack of scoring punch. But the Nets aren't a great transition team ranking 28th in average possessions per game, can't dominate the boards with Joakim Noah taking Brook Lopez out of his normal game and Johnson has trouble running.


The Bulls are playoff tested in big games. The Nets aren't. Brooklyn also hasn't won in Chicago all season losing both regular season games at United Center along with Games 3 and 4 in the series.

With J.R. Smith back from his one-game suspension, I see this Game 5 going over this low total.


Smith averages better than 18 points a game. He gives the Knicks an offensive swagger and takes some of the scoring load pressure off Carmelo Anthony.


The Celtics hate Smith and the Knicks. This is a long-standing rivalry that has gotten ugly during this series with the Celtics believing the Knicks rubbed it in with their Game 3 victory. Smith's flagrant foul on Jason Terry in Game 3, which draw the one-game suspension, still is in the minds of the Celtics.


So expect a lot of fouls to be called. The Celtics aren't going to go gently into the night if they should fall hopelessly behind. They will keep fouling. Boston, though, is due to shoot much better than it has so far in the series. The Celtics averaged 96.5 points during the regular season, ranking sixth in field goal percentage. The Knicks were 19th in defensive field goal percentage so they've been playing above their heads defensively during this series. A defensive regression is in order.


The Knicks are more an offensive club. They averaged 100 points per game during the season. Anthony and Smith are scorers, not defenders. Yes, playoff basketball is more half-court and defensive intensity. But the total is set too low.

I thought these two teams were close to even before their series began and now the series is tied 2-2. The Grizzlies made the necessary adjustments after going 0-2 in Los Angeles.



The Grizzlies dominated in Memphis. They actually could have won Game 2 at Staples Center, but lost when Chris Paul made a shot with one second left.



Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have asserted their dominance inside helping the Grizzlies outrebounded the Clippers, 92-61, during the last two games. The Grizzlies buried the Clippers by 21 points in Game 4.



I don't see it as any kind of given that the Clippers just bounce back returning home and cover this mid-size number. The Clippers are unproven in this kind of pressure, must-win type of scenario. I don't believe Vinny Del Negro is a good enough coach either to make the right counter adjustments.



The Grizzlies have covered nearly 60 percent of the time on the road this season. They were 24-17 straight-up on the road during the regular-season. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS the last eight times they've hosted a foe with a winning away mark.

Down 2-0, Atlanta needed to adjust to Indiana's physical style of play.


The Hawks made those necessary adjustments while regaining their confidence building a 24-point halftime lead and cruising to an easy 21-point victory this past Saturday.


It was the 12th straight time the Hawks have defeated Indiana at home. The Pacers are far less intimidating on the road where they are 8-18 ATS the past 26 times they've played a foe with a winning home record.


The Hawks have covered seven of the last eight times they've hosted Indiana.


Atlanta has the talent and athleticism to beat the Pacers. The Hawks proved that in Game 3. They are a much better team at home while the Pacers are much worse on the road.


The Pacers now have to adjust to the Hawks getting bigger and tougher in the paint with 7-foot center Johan Petro and rugged Ivan Johnson off the bench to go along with stars Josh Smith and Al Horford. I don't see the Pacers solving those matchup concerns on the road. This spread is low enough where you're just basically asking the Hawks to win so a money line play would be in order.

The first three games of this series went under the total. The oddsmaker has reacted accordingly lowering the total on each game.



The Celtics are averaging 75 points a game during the series while shooting less than 40 percent from the floor. Boston isn't that feeble of an offensive team and the Knicks aren't that dominant of a defensive team ranking 19th in defensive field goal percentage.



Boston entered the playoffs going above the total five straight times. The Celtics averaged 96.5 points during the season - 21 points more per game than they've averaged in this series - and ranked sixth in field goal percentage and free throw percentage.



The Knicks averaged 100 points in the regular season and were fourth in 3-point field goal percentage although marksman J.R. Smith is suspended.



I understand the playoffs are an entirely different animal and scoring usually goes way down. But I see a return to the norm here. It wouldn't take much either considering how low this total is.



Look for a lot of fouls and free throws as the Celtics are frustrated and furious at the Knicks for not only for blowing them out but for excessive showboating. This game could get real rough. Smith was suspended for a flagrant elbow to Jason Terry. If the Celtics fall hopelessly behind, it wouldn't shock me if they kept fouling throughout.

The Hawks play far more confident at home. They have the athletic talent to win this pivotal Game 3 down 0-2.



Atlanta has defeated Indiana 11 consecutive times at home. The Pacers have failed to cover in six of their last seven visits to Philips Arena.



The Pacers also are 8-17 ATS on the road versus a foe with a winning home record.



The Hawks have had trouble with Indiana's physical style. The Pacers have imposed their will in Indiana. That's been reflected in the free throw shooting where the Pacers are 51 of 63 from the foul line while the Hawks are just 18 of 34.



I don't see the Pacers being able to intimidate the Hawks in Atlanta.

Denver actually is lucky to be tied with Golden State at 1-1 despite playing the first two games at Pepsi Center. It's hard to imagine the Nuggets playing a third straight poor game.

I expect Kenneth Faried to play better after he returned to the lineup in Game 2 and for the Nuggets to tighten up their defense now that they know the Warriors are going small after losing forward David Lee.


The Nuggets were humiliated at home by Golden State in Game 2. It may have been Denver's worst game of the season. The Nuggets will strongly be looking to atone.

Denver is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times it has met a foe with a winning record. Golden State is 5-11 ATS the last 16 times following a straight-up victory.


While Faried is back in Denver's lineup, the Warriors are banged-up. Lee is out, Stephen Curry has a tender ankle and Andrew Bogut remains fragile as ever.


The key to this matchup is controlling the boards. I see Denver doing that with Faried back in action and the Warriors minus Lee.

There's no secrets between these two long-time Eastern Conference rivals. The Knicks are the better team, but in this Game 3 matchup I want Boston.

I don't think the tax is excessive to get the Celtics either down 0-2 and finally getting to play at home.

The Celtics are a terrible road team. They are much different and better at home. No team had more of a home-court advantage during the regular season than Boston, which had 13 more wins at home than on the road.

The emotional aspect couldn't be higher for the Celtics and the people of Boston having gone through the traumatic bombing at the Boston Marathon and dealing with the aftermath. I see the Celtics drawing on that playing their most emotional and inspired game of the season.

The Celtics have covered 13 of their last 18 (72%) home contests.

There is no bargain in the line. I realize that. But I see the Grizzlies playing their "A" game returning home down 0-2 in the series.



These two teams are very close. Their series last year went the full seven games. The Clippers are flashier with the bigger stars, but the Grizzlies play better defense and are coming off a franchise-best 32 home wins.



This game is the Grizzlies' season. I will lay the tax to have them in this game. The Grizzlies nearly upset the Clippers in LA during Game 2, but lost when Chris Paul scored a basket with 0.1 seconds left.



I see the Grizzlies imposing their will at home on the Clippers. Memphis is 26-11 ATS (70%) in its last 37 games at FedExForum.

Now that the Nuggets had a scare in Game 1, winning just 97-95, I see them blowing away the Warriors in Game 2. I don't believe the Nuggets will be flat a second straight game.



Not only will Denver be better prepared for Andrew Bogut, but the Nuggets won't have to worry about David Lee. His season is over after he torn his right hip flexor. Lee is out and Kenneth Faried, Denver's leading rebounder, is back in after he sat out Saturday's Game 1 with an injured ankle.



The combination of no Lee, the league leader in double-doubles, and Faried back in Denver's lineup is a lethal one for the Warriors. There is no way the Nuggets want to travel to the Bay Area with the series tied 1-1. The Nuggets have covered 15 of their last 21 (71 percent) at Pepsi Center. Note, too, that a home team in the first round of the playoffs that wins the opening game wins the second game, too, at a 76.5 percent clip.

Sure, Oklahoma City is live to win the championship. But the Thunder is getting too much respect with this spread.

Only once have the Rockets been more than nine point underdogs since acquiring James Harden. The Rockets actually average more points per game than the Thunder.

But because the Rockets fared poorly during their last two regular season games, the line has been inflated. Until those last two defeats - one of whom occurred in overtime on the road against the Lakers - the Rockets had won six of eight.


There are no secrets here. The Rockets have the offense to keep up with the Thunder.

Can the Bucks shock the world and upset the Heat? No, but they can hang inside of double-digits.

The Heat have been resting their stars. It may be asking too much for them to just come in, wipe away the rust and completely dominate especially with Dwayne Wade nursing a sore knee.

Milwaukee and Miami met four times during the regular season. The Bucks won one game by 19, lost another by seven in overtime and were defeated in the other two by 11 and 13 points. The Bucks don't match up as bad to Miami as many other teams do. Milwaukee has quickness and ranked second in offensive rebounding, while the Heat finished last in rebounding.

The Bucks have covered in five of their last seven visits to Miami. The Heat are 2-7 ATS the past nine times they've been double-digit favorites.

Brandon Jennings has been popping off about the Bucks' chances against Miami, but Jennings averaged 23.8 points a game against the Heat this season. Monta Ellis, though, shot just 30.2 percent against the Heat and went to the foul line only twice. If Ellis, a streak shooter, can raise his game the Bucks just could throw a major scare into the Heat.

The Bulls are a bad matchup for Brooklyn. Chicago and Tom Thibodeau, one of the best defensive-minded coaches in the NBA, are playoff-tested. Their hard-nosed, blue-collar, defensive style is well-suited for the postseason when everything slows down and the defensive intensity goes up several notches.

The Bulls very likely could steal this first matchup from the Nets, who last made the playoffs in 2007. This is the first time the Nets are hosting a playoff game in Brooklyn. All of the pressure is on the Nets, who have no postseason experience.

Chicago is laying in the weeds. The Bulls have everyone back healthy except for Derrick Rose. It would be a surprising plus if Rose could finally play for the first time this season, but I like Chicago without him. It's just a bonus if he sees action. The important thing is Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Marco Belinelli are all back.

While the Nets were coasting down the stretch thrilled with finally making the playoffs, Thibodeau was keeping his team sharp by using a fairly normal rotation.

Chicago defeated Brooklyn three of four during the season. More telling is the last meeting between the two teams. That occurred on April 4 in Brooklyn and the Bulls pulled out a 92-90 victory in a playoff-type matchup. The Bulls won despite making just 12 of 19 free throws while the Nets hit on 23 of 30 from the foul line.

Dallas gave it a valiant shot, but will miss the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. So do the Mavericks lie down now? No, just the opposite.

The Mavericks are composed of prideful veterans, many of whom will be moving on to new teams. It's important they close out with a strong home performance. It's important to Dallas that it doesn't finish with a losing record. A win and the Mavericks end up 41-41.

The Mavericks have won four of their last six. Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 22 points during his last four games while shooting 53.5 percent from the field in his last 16 games. A strong performance from Nowitzki is vital. The Mavericks are missing the playoffs, in large part, because Nowitzki was out for the first 27 games and then was rusty when he came back. He's now back to playing close to his upper elite level.

The Hornets and Mavericks just met four days ago in New Orleans. It was no contest. Dallas built a 62-40 halftime lead and coasted to a 107-89 victory. The Hornets have lost four in a row. They are locked into having the second-worst record in the West with no incentive. They haven't played since that loss to Dallas.

The Hornets are young and immature. They are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 road games and are anxious for the season to finally end. The Mavericks have covered nine of the last 11 times when playing a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. The Mavericks are the much superior team, especially with Nowitzki back on track, have motivation and are home. Look for them to beat the Hornets by double-digits.

Toronto is playing for the second time in three days and off a nice upset win against Brooklyn this past Sunday. The Raptors, though, have nothing left to play for missing the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. I see them being disinterested in this their final road game of the season.

Atlanta is well rested having last played at home this past Friday. The Hawks are a streaky team. They have won two in a row now after dropping three straight. Josh Smith and Al Horford are playing well, which is bad news for Toronto as the Raptors will be missing injured center Jonas Valanciunas.

The Hawks won't lack for motivation. This game has been moved to national television and the Hawks are looking to nail down the No. 5 seed, which would mean avoiding having to play the physical Pacers in the first round.

Atlanta is 2-0 versus Toronto this season winning by an average of 10 points a game.

The Wizards have incentive to win 30 games and get revenge for an embarrassing loss to the Nets last month.

Brooklyn, though, has nothing to play for after being upset by Toronto on Sunday. The Nets are locked into the No. 4 seed. Their goal going into the playoffs is getting healthy. That means resting players. So don't expect Gerald Wallace or Deron Williams to see many minutes if they even play at all.

This is what Nets coach P.J. Carlesimo said after Sunday's loss to the Raptors: "We don't need to get anybody hurt. We're not playing for anything. Going forward now we've certainly got to rest some people."

With John Wall playing well, the Wizards certainly are capable of pulling the outright upset against the disinterested Nets.

The Bulls have owned the Magic - as have most teams this season - and still are playing for playoff seeding with a chance for the fifth seed. So Chicago can't afford to slip up against the lowly Magic.

The Bulls should be reinforced for this matchup. Richard Hamilton is back from a one-game suspension, Taj Gibson is expected back after missing eight games and Joakim Noah is in the lineup for the second time in 14 games.

Chicago has defeated Orlando in eight of the past nine meetings, including the last four. The Bulls are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games versus foes with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Orlando has failed to cover in14 of its last 20 home games.

The Raptors are lottery-bound once again, but have shown life during the home stretch winning and covering four of their last five. Toronto has a couple of players - Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas - who are game-time decisions, but have a number of other young, underrated players to fill in.


Brooklyn is playing well. I certainly acknowledge that. But this is going to be a tough spot for the Nets, who are trying for a fourth consecutive road win. The last time they achieved that was 2008.


The Nets already have clinched the fourth seed in the East, making the playoffs for the first time since 2007. They still have an outside chance to gain the No. 3 seed, but that's not likely to happen. The Nets are off big road victories against the Celtics and the Pacers this past Friday. This marks Brooklyn's fourth game in six days and this matchup is at an early start time. Toronto is used to playing in these early home Sunday starts. They are fully acclimated to them.


The Nets can have all the incentive they want, but posting consecutive road victories against the Celtics and Pacers during the past four days is draining. It's difficult to envision the Nets bringing their "A" game to this matchup. The Nets haven't covered during four of their last five visits to Toronto. Brooklyn also hosts much-improved Washington on Monday. Deron Williams isn't 100 percent so the Nets may choose to limit his minutes.


The Raptors have triple revenge motivation. Toronto is 0-3 against Brooklyn this season. All three losses were tough games and the Raptors didn't have Rudy Gay, their best player, in any of those games.

It's taken all season, but the Lakers finally have their act together spurred by the super human efforts of Kobe Bryant. Los Angeles has won five of its last six as it tries to hold off Utah for the last playoff spot in the West.


The Lakers can't let up here - and they know it. The Lakers have a one game lead on the Jazz with three games left in the regular season. Utah, though, holds the tie-breaker and still has two games left against the lowly Timberwolves. The Lakers finish against San Antonio and Houston. They absolutely can not afford to lose this home matchup.


Golden State achieved its goal of making the playoffs for the first time since 2007. The Warriors still are on Cloud 9 and won't have injured Andrew Bogut. That's going to make it difficult for the small Warriors to handle Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol inside.

The Warriors have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 road games. They are 7-19 ATS the past 26 times facing an opponent with a winning record and now are playing without rest.

The Lakers have beaten the Warriors 18 of the past 20 times, including winning the last nine times at Staples Center. The Lakers have won their last nine overall matchups against the Warriors by an average of 14.7 points. The Warriors have been unable to defend Bryant, who is averaging 33.8 points in his last eight games against Golden State.

The Jazz are a young team and facing a lot of pressure in a must-win spot here trailing the Lakers by one game for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Minnesota was blown out by the Warriors and Clippers in its first two games of this three-game road trip. I see the Timberwolves, with the pressure off, playing much better and showing some pride. The Timberwolves are 8-1-1 ATS following a loss.

Utah isn't play well enough to be laying this many points. The Jazz have averaged just 92 points during their last four games.

This is no rest stop for Oklahoma City. The Thunder are locked in a showdown with San Antonio for the top spot in the West.

Golden State isn't nearly as good as Oklahoma City and the Warriors are in a letdown situation. The Warriors clinched just their second playoff spot in 19 years and first since 2007 in their last game this past Tuesday with a victory against Minnesota.

The Warriors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a win. They also are 4-13 ATS the past 17 times when meeting an opponent with a winning record. Oklahoma City has covered five of the past six meetings between the two clubs. The Thunder knows how to take advantage of the Warriors' loose style and lack of defensive especially targeting Stephen Curry, a weak defender.

The Thunder has covered the last five times when playing on the road against a team with a winning home record. The Warriors haven't been able to clamp down on Kevin Durant, who is averaging 30.4 points versus Golden State in 20 career meetings. That's his highest average against any team.

Even though Portland has lost eight in a row, the Lakers should not be this high of a road favorite especially at this venue.


Portland's Rose Garden has been a den of thorns for the Lakers, who have lost in 17 of their last 21 visits there while failing to cover the spread during 18 of their last 22 trips.


The Lakers are a bad road club to begin with, too, covering just 25 percent of their away matchups this season. LA has failed to cover in five of its last six road games.


Los Angeles had a tough go at home last night against the lowly Hornets trailing well into the fourth quarter before pulling out the victory. The Lakers are 2-8 when playing in the second of consecutive games. This also is the veteran Lakers third game in four days.


The Trail Blazers have been idle the past two days. They are eager to end their embarrassing losing streak. They fell behind 26 points at home to Dallas in their last game this past Sunday, but didn't quit. The Trail Blazers rallied to within three before losing 96-91. They only failed to cover the 4 1/2-point spread when Shawn Marion made a needless layup at the buzzer. The Trail Blazers felt good after that game saying that the comeback boosted their sinking confidence.


The Trail Blazers were sparked by rookie Will Barton, who scored 22 points, pulled down 13 rebounds and dished off six assists off the bench. Barton could play extra minutes if Wesley Matthews can't go because of an ankle injury.


The Lakers are battling for the final playoff spot in the West, but they have too much age and mileage to have fresh legs for this matchup.

The Warriors couldn't lock up their first playoff berth in six seasons losing at home to Utah in their last game this past Sunday. Now Golden State hosts lowly Minnesota. After this game, the Warriors finish with four tough games - the Thunder, at the Lakers, Spurs and at the Trail Blazers.


Golden State is a much better team than the injury-ravaged Timberwolves. The Warriors are home with strong motivation to achieve their long sough after playoff bid. This is their opportunity - and they know it.


The Warriors are 26-12 at home and have covered 55 percent at Oracle Arena. The Timberwolves are 10-27 on the road and have a losing away spread mark.


Golden State has defeated Minnesota five consecutive times. The Timberwolves are coming off a satisfying 107-101 home win this past Sunday against Detroit. That victory gave coach Rick Adelman his 1,000 win. The Timberwolves wanted to accomplish that for their coach, who has had a troubled season due to his team's poor record, multiple injuries and ill health of his wife.


The Timberwolves will miss the playoffs for the ninth year in a row. Their goal was to get Adelman's his historic win. Mission accomplished. Now the Timberwolves have to fly to the West Coast to play just their second road game in 12 days. I see a disinterested team looking to play the string out. Minnesota is 5-15-1 ATS following a victory.


Thanks to Stephen Curry, the Warriors rank No. 1 in 3-point field goal percentage. The Timberwolves are 24th in defensive field goal percentage. This is a bad matchup for the Timberwolves both from a fundamental standpoint and situational viewpoint.

Dallas is in must-win mode to keep its faint playoff hopes alive. Portland is on a season-high seven-game losing streak and officially out of playoff contention.

Sounds like a no-brainer to fade the Trail Blazers, right? Wrong. The situation is ripe for the home 'dog.

Some teams actually play better once they are eliminated from the postseason knowing there is no more pressure. The Trail Blazers desperately want to end their losing streak. This is the last time they get to play an opponent with a losing record.

Dallas just isn't very good. That's why the Mavericks are a long shot to continue their playoff run of 12 straight years. The makeup of the team is largely composed of over-the-hill veterans who will be leaving Dallas once the season ends. Most of these guys are just mercenaries. Dirk Nowitzki hasn't produced such low numbers since his rookie season.

There is a huge fatigue factor working against the Mavericks. This is their fourth consecutive road game and third game in four days. Portland is always a tough road venue. Despite a rare four-game home losing streak, the Trail Blazers still have won nearly 60 percent of their home games.

LaMarcus Aldridge is the key for Portland. He's back after missing four games with a right ankle sprain. He scored 32 points and had 13 rebounds in Portland's last game this past Friday. Aldridge is averaging 25.3 points, 10 rebounds and shooting 52.5 percent from the floor in three games versus Dallas this season. He's the best player on the court.

Denver just may have the best home-court edge of any team. The Nuggets are shooting for their 20th straight home win, which would match their franchise best. They catch Houston paying its third road game in four days and second in two nights.


The Rockets have lost 13 of 19 times when playing without rest. They also have lost and failed to cover the past six times versus Denver.


Denver has the depth to overcome losing second-leading scorer Danilo Gallinari and point guard Ty Lawson. Houston doesn't have the depth, especially playing without rest and in high altitude, to be without its second-leading scorer, Chandler Parsons. He's not expected to play due to a calf injury. The Rockets also may be without guard Carlos Delfino, who has missed the past two games because of the flu.


Denver not only wins at Pepsi Center, but covers spreads. The Nuggets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games. They are worth riding again in this matchup.

Getting points with the superior team is something that interests me. That's the case here. The Lakers are in a desperate struggle to make the playoffs, but Kobe Bryant isn't 100 percent and Steve Nash is out. Dwight Howard continues to miss free throws at an astounding rate and Metta World Peace is out.


The Grizzlies have won four in a row and aren't letting up. They are playing for playoff seeding. Memphis is 22-1 when reaching triple-digits this season. The Lakers are allowing more than 101 points per game. Contrast this with Memphis, which leads the NBA in defense yielding less than 90 points a game.


The Lakers have failed to step up most of the time. They are 2-7 ATS versus foes with an above .600 mark. The Lakers can't go all out either and expose Bryant and Nash to major minutes with a big game Sunday against the Clippers.

Minnesota isn't good enough to be laying this many points to any team. The Raptors are playing a lot of youngsters, but some of them are pretty underrated, including Jonas Valancinas, who is coming off a season-high 24 points in Toronto's last game, a win against Washington.


The Raptors have covered seven of the past nine times on the road when going against a foe with a losing home mark. The Raptors also are 18-8 ATS the past 26 times when facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .400.

Minnesota doesn't have a good history of stringing together well played games. The Timberwolves are 3-12-1 ATS following a straight-up victory.

Toronto has owned this series. The Raptors have covered six of the past seven times at Target Center.

On paper, this one sets up well for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been idle for four days while the banged-up Spurs had to play last night. The Thunder need to win this game to have any realistic hope of overtaking the Spurs for best record in the West.

So the Thunder are the right side, correct? Perhaps. But the point spread says something different. Any time the number is this high, the Spurs have to be played especially when there are false perceptions that come into play.

Yes, the Spurs played last night. But they were home to Orlando, one of the worst teams in the NBA. San Antonio was able to win by 14 despite limiting Tim Duncan to 13 minutes and not using Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard and DeJuan Blair. They should all be available tonight.

The Spurs had played six straight games where the outcome was decided by two points or less during regulation. Only four times have the Spurs been underdogs since Jan. 25 and they covered all four winning three straight-up.

No team does a better job keeping Kevin Durant in check. The Spurs have held Durant, the NBA's leading scorer, to five points under his scoring average in the three meetings this season. The Spurs have won two of those meetings. San Antonio also has held Russell Westbrook to less than 35 percent shooting from the floor.

Maybe the Thunder win the game, but it sure looks to be close. This spread is out of whack.

What are the odds of a sixth straight San Antonio game being decided by two points or fewer? The answer is not very good when the opponent is Orlando.


Still, there are numerous reasons for backing the Magic to stay within this big number.


First is the situation. The Spurs just got through playing extremely tight games against the Nuggets, Clippers, Heat and Grizzlies. After this matchup, the Spurs have a Western Conference showdown with Oklahoma City on Thursday. This, of course, leaves the backdoor open for Orlando because Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will want to rest his veteran stars if his team builds up a big lead in anticipation of tomorrow's much more important matchup.


Manu Ginobili is out for anther couple of weeks with a strained right hamstring. The Spurs haven't been very good covering big numbers failing to get the money the past five times when laying nine or more points. San Antonio also is just 4-11-1 ATS the last 16 times when going against foes with a winning percentage of less than .400.


Orlando hasn't quit on first-year head coach Jacque Vaughn. The youthful Magic actually have covered eight of their last 11 road contests. They came from 25 points down in their last game, this past Monday at Houston, to pull within five late in the fourth quarter before losing 111-103. The Magic are going with rookies and some of them are playing well. Maurice Harkness had a season-high 28 points versus Houston.


It's doubtful Popovich will want to blow out and embarrass Vaughn. The two are close. Vaughn coached under Popovich at San Antonio from 2010 until getting the Orlando head coaching job this past summer.

Raptors minus 3 1/2 hosting Wizards



The Wizards are playing hard to their credit. John Wall is playing his finest ball since joining the league.



Toronto has dropped seven of its last eight. But the spot is right for the Raptors. They catch Washington off a satisfying home win last night versus the Bulls.



The Wizards aren't likely to have underrated rookie Bradley Beal, who reinjured an ankle injury during the Wizards' win last night.



The Raptors will miss the playoffs once again. They haven't been getting up for games being demoralized. They will get up for this matchup, however. It's a revenge spot as just three days ago the Wizards whipped Toronto, 109-92, in Washington. Beal had 24 in that game having just returned from an ankle injury that caused him to miss five games.



Washington is playing well at home, but is just 2-7 ATS on the road. The Wizards also have failed cover in seven of their last 10 games versus Toronto.

The Bucks just aren't playing well enough to lay this many points. Plus Charlotte has been performing well and not quitting. The Bobcats are a guard-oriented team and Gerald Herderson and Kemba Walker have been outstanding especially Henderson.


Charlotte has covered five of its last seven with three straight-up victories during this span. The Bobcats' only non-covers during this time were to the red-hot Heat and by one point to the Pistons losing at the buzzer. The Bobcats are averaging 102.7 points during their last three games.

Milwaukee has dropped eight of its last 11 games. The Bucks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. The Bucks lack incentive owning a 5 1/2-game lead on the 76ers for the final playoff spot, knowing they are going to meet Miami in the first round. That, of course, means a quick exit.


The Bucks live and die with how Brandon Jennings plays and he's been off shooting just 25 percent from the field in the last five games while averaging fewer than nine points a game during this span. The problem also could be mental with Jennings, who is not happy.

Jennings has been cold and the Bucks are playing too casual. That's not a good combination for a team laying double-digits.

J.R. Smith has been on fire and the Knicks are playing well. However, the Celtics are going to bring it in this matchup having been embarrassed at home by the Knicks this past Tuesday losing, 100-85.


The Celtics, for some odd reason, took the Knicks lightly in that matchup. It won't happen here. I consider these teams very even so taking this many points makes sense in this heated division rivalry.


The Celtics bounced back after being embarrassed by the Knicks to beat Cleveland on the road and then defeat Atlanta at home by 11 this past Friday. Beating the Hawks was the eighth time in the last 10 games that Boston has covered against an opponent with a winning record.


This has been a road series with the visitor covering nine of the last 11 times. Boston is 5-1 in its last six trips to Madison Square Garden.

Minnesota has been playing well, but the Timberwolves are one of the weakest teams in the league, lack depth and are in action for the seventh time in 10 days. I don't see the Timberwolves being able to sustain their solid play against what should be a motivated and superior Grizzlies squad.


Memphis trails the Clippers by just one-half game for fourth-place in the Western Conference playoff seedings. The Grizzlies are only one game in back of third-place Denver. The Grizzlies, though, have been losing on the road. This is a test for them. They will have incentive.


Memphis is the top rebounding team and ranks second defensively. The Grizzlies have started to perform better since Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have come back from injuries. The Timberwolves, without Kevin Love, are not a rebounding match for the Grizzlies.


The teams have met twice this season and Memphis won by 15 and 17 points. Another Grizzlies' double-digit victory should be in the offering.

Yes, Brooklyn is playing well on the road winning four of its first five during its current eight-game away swing. But now the Nets face their biggest challenge - meeting Denver at Pepsi Center where the Nuggets have won 17 in a row and are 32-3 on the season. The Nuggets also have covered 11 of their last 14 at home.

The Nets have failed to step up when facing quality opposition going 4-9 ATS the past 13 times when facing an above .500 team. The Nuggets have beaten the Nets five consecutive times at Pepsi Center - and the games haven't been close with Denver winning by an average of 13.2 points.

The Nuggets, though, are on a two-game losing streak following a team record-tying 15-game winning streak. The Nuggets are out to get straighten out again and they're home to accomplish that. The Nuggets have the rebounding, scoring in the paint and depth to exploit the Nets' road weariness.

Oklahoma City has dominated Minnesota winning 14 of the last 15 in the series. The Timberwolves don't have the offense to keep up with the Thunder, nor the defense to keep Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in check.

It's a bad matchp for Minnesota both player-wise and on a situational level. This marks the Timberwolves' sixth game in nine days. The Timberwolves lack the depth with all of their injuries to keep pace with Oklahoma City when fatigue is a major factor.

The Thunder can't afford to let down in this game playing such a lowly opponent. I don't see that happening as the Timberwolves caught the Thunder's attention by nearly beating the Lakers at home this past Wednesday and that the Thunder is just 1 1/2 games behind San Antonio for the Western Conference lead and knowing the Spurs' next two games are against the Clippers and Heat.

Oklahoma City not only leads the NBA in scoring, but also has been playing outstanding defense holding four straight opponents to 90 points or fewer. Oklahoma City has had no problem exploiting the Timberwolves' porous defense averaging 115.2 points during the past 11 meetings between the two teams.

The Thunder know how to beat up the bad teams covering 10 of the last 12 times when facing a sub-.500 foe. Minnesota also is at its worst against strong opponents going 5-15-2 ATS versus above .500 teams.

By sleepwalking through their last game, a 109-103 road loss to Golden State this past Monday, the Lakers find themselves clinging to just a one game lead for the final playoff spot in the West against Utah and Dallas. And the Jazz own the tiebreaker in case they finish in a tie with the Lakers.

So expect a motivated Lakers squad to take the court against Minnesota. Los Angeles certainly owns a gigantic talent edge. The Lakers are 2-0 versus Minnesota this season winning by an average of 16.5 points.

The Timberwolves are off an easy road win against Detroit last night. The banged-up Timberwolves now return home exhausted with their depth depleted this late in the season due to multiple injuries. This marks the Timberwolves' fifth game in seven days.

The Lakers are desperate to halt a three-game losing skid. The Timberwolves can defeat bad teams, but have had problems when stepping up in class. They are 5-15-2 ATS the past 22 times when facing foes with a winning record. The Lakers have covered the past six times when playing at Minnesota.

Minnesota has been decimated by injuries this season. It's forced extended minutes on players not ready for them and help result in nine losses in its last 10 road games.


The Pistons know they have a great shot at ending an embarrassing six-game home losing streak. Those losses all occurred to foes much stronger than Minnesota.


The Pistons have been a solid money-maker when playing bad opposition going 10-3 ATS versus below .500 teams and 8-2 ATS against opponents with a winning percentage below .400.


Detroit's confidence is up, too, after posting a road victory in its last game this past Saturday. The Pistons don't play again until Friday so they should be fully focused and going all out.


The Timberwolves are caught in a weird scheduling spot. They just were home after three straight road games. Now they go back on the road and then come home for four consecutive games starting Wednesday when they meet the Lakers in a much more appealing matchup.

While Memphis is a far superior team to Washington, the line is set low because the Wizards are home, the Grizzlies have lost three straight on the road and center Marc Gasol is out with an abdominal tear. Gasol is the Grizzlies' second-leading scorer and rebounder.

Memphis still is the right side and the low spread puts us in action on the money line since this figures to be a defensive battle. The Grizzlies rank first in defense holding foes to less than 90 points a game. They are outscoring the Wizards by an average of six points per game. The Wizards rank 28th offensively and are vulnerable to the Grizzlies' trapping style that has help them rank among the leaders in steals.

The Grizzlies match up well to the Wizards. They've defeated them seven of the past eight times. The Grizzlies are playing for playoff seeding. This matchup is important given their recent woes. Memphis hasn't lost four consecutive road games in three years. The Grizzlies had won seven of their past eight away games before their recent slide so it's not like they are a bad road club. In fact, the Grizzlies have covered eight of their last 11 on the road.

Washington's home-court advantage is negated somewhat by weird scheduling circumstances. The Wizards returned home yesterday after being on the road for four games, including the last three on the West Coast. This is their third game in four days. Right after this game, though, the Wizards hit the road again for games against Oklahoma City and Orlando.

Being at home for less than two days after a prolonged stay on the West Coast is distracting and puts the Wizards at a situational disadvantage. While the Grizzlies will be without Gasol, Washington will be missing a key player, too, in guard Bradley Beal, who is the Wizards' second-leading scorer. He aggravated a sprained ankle. The Grizzlies have an underrated backcourt that can take advantage especially with the way reserve guard Jerryd Bayless has been stepping up. He's averaging 20.2 points during the last five games shooting 54 percent from the field.

I'm going to lay the wood with the Thunder, who are chasing San Antonio for the top spot in the West and off a lackluster performance against lowly Orlando.

The Thunder have a strong history of burying weak teams at home and catch the tired Trail Blazers at the tail end of a five-game, seven-day road trip.

Portland is feeling satisfied these days off road victories against Chicago and Atlanta this past Thursday and Friday. The Trail Blazers, though, still have lost 14 of their last 18 away matchups. The fatigue factor is especially prevalent in this matchup because Portland has the lowest scoring bench in the league.

Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS the past 13 times hosting a foe with a losing road mark. The Thunder is 9-1 ATS at home taking on opponents with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

The Thunder has defeated the Trail Blazers the past six times. Portland has not covered during the past five meetings. The Trail Blazers need to defend the perimeter well to have a chance against the Thunder. This is going to be hard for them to do with tired legs.

The Trail Blazers aren't going to the postseason. They just would like this game to be over so they can get back to the West Coast. The Thunder don't play again until Wednesday so they won't be holding anything back, or limiting the minutes of their stars.

I have renewed respect for the Wizards, who unlike other bottom feeders have refused to quit. The Wizards are an impressive 20-15 since John Wall returned.

But this is a horrendous spot for Washington.

Golden State has been idle since Wednesday. The Warriors are pushing for their first playoff spot since 2007 and are highly motivated playing at home for the first time in nine days. The Warriors are 22-10 at home.

They catch the Wizards off their most satisfying road win of the season. Washington rallied from 18 points down in the second half to stun the Lakers, 103-100, last night at Staples Center. The Wizards lack the maturity and focus to turn right around and play another strong game.

Even with the victory against the Lakers and the one against Phoenix in their previous away game, the Wizards are just 7-26 on the road. This marks their fourth away matchup in six days so fatigue becomes a crucial factor especially playing an up-tempo team such as Golden State.

The Wizards haven't won three straight games on the road all season. It's not going to happen here. The Warriors have a top-10 offense that can take advantage of this situational advantage and bury the Wizards.

You might find it surprising, but the Kings are a very respectable 18-15 at home. They also are playing well averaging 113.1 points during their last 11 games in which they've gone 5-6. This includes home wins against the Clippers and Bulls in their past two games in Sacramento.


Mainly, though, this handicap is a fade on Minnesota. The Timberwolves are a shot team heading down the stretch. Forced to go with a limited roster, the depth-shy Timberwolves were done in by multiple injuries.


Minnesota's problems really manifest itself on the road. It has been more than five weeks since the Timberwolves last won away from Target Center. The Timberwolves' road mark is very ugly - eight straight defeats and 16 losses during the past 17 games. Minnesota is 3-13-1 ATS on the road when going against a team with a winning home record.


The Kings have maturity issues, but they should be up for this game with a double-revenge motive. The Timberwolves beat Sacramento twice in November when they were healthy and playing their best ball.


The Timberwolves dominated the boards against the Kings thanks to Kevin Love. Now, though, Love is out and the Kings are the better rebounding team averaging nearly 47 points in the paint this month, which ranks among the NBA's best. Minnesota, by contrast, is 29th in rebounding differential this month at minus 7.8 per game.

Golden State and San Antonio are top 10 offensive teams. But the setting for an under sets up perfectly in this matchup.


The Warriors brought in Mark Jackson as coach to improve their defense. Lately the Warriors have improved their defense realizing that they have no shot in the playoffs if they can't handle a half-court style. In their last two games - both road victories - the Warriors held Houston and New Orleans to a combined average of 75 points and 33.1 percent shooting from the field. It was the sixth straight time the under has cashed when the Warriors have played a Western Conference opponent.


This wasn't a fluke either. The Warriors have gone under in six of their last eight games. The under has cashed by an average of 26 points during this span.This trend should continue as 7-foot center Andrew Bogut becomes more of a focal point. The Warriors don't run-and-gun nearly as much with Bogut in the lineup. The pace is slowed.


The Warriors aren't going to lack for motivation either having lost a humiliating 28 straight times in San Antonio.


San Antonio won't lack for motivation either. Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan are not happy with the Spurs lack of defense. San Antonio yielded 113 points at home this past Saturday to the Cavaliers, who didn't even have Kyrie Irving. That's an embarrassment.


The Spurs also have revenge for a 107-101 overtime road loss to the Warriors on Feb. 22. Golden State ranks No. 1 in three-point shooting, but San Antonio ranks fourth in defending against 3-pointers.


Chances are the Spurs are going to be rusty having last played on Saturday. They still figure to be without Tony Parker. The Spurs are going to need to hit their perimeter shots as the Warriors have gotten much tougher inside defensively with Bogut finally healthy. Making outside shots could be a problem for San Antonio. The Spurs will have to win this one by stepping up defensively. No coach is more dangerous with ample preparation time than Popovich. He'll have the Spurs ready to defend Stephen Curry and Co.

At 25-40, the 76ers are not going to the playoffs and they know it. Maybe that's why, with the pressure lifted, the 76ers are playing their finest ball after underachieving all season.

The 76ers have a winning home record. They have been enjoying their current homestand going 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in their last three games. Their only loss was by four points to the red-hot Heat, winners of 22 straight games. Philadelphia defeated the Nets by nine and Pacers by seven.

These victories against the Nets and Pacers, two solid playoff teams, weren't flukes either. The 76ers blocked 14 shots against Indiana. Spencer Hawes may have played his finest game with 18 points, a career-high 16 rebounds, eight assists and seven blocks. The 7-foot-1 Hawes can neutralize LaMarcus Aldridge, who is Portland's No. 1 scoring option.

Philadelphia is a very dangerous foe to be playing when at home right now so the timing is bad for Portland. The Trail Blazers also happen to be a terrible road club. They are 9-23 away from Rose Garden, 13-19 ATS.

Basketball is fun again for the 76ers. I expect another strong performance from them especially since they head out for a four-game West Coast trip following this matchup.

This has turned into a bitter rivalry this season for Golden State as it is 0-3 versus Houston. Not only are both teams battling for a playoff spot, but the Warriors have the added motivation of triple revenge.


I don't find the Rockets superior to Golden State despite their 3-0 mark in the series. The Warriors have the better record and are the deeper team. I'm not a fan of Houston coach Kevin McHale. The Rockets have always been about stars rather than winning and that's holding true again this season.


The Rockets have a number of bad habits, including turning the ball over and falling behind looking for James Harden to bail them out. That's a dangerous pattern and I believe it catches up to Houston here.

The oddsmaker has set a total way too high for what should be an intense matchup. Neither team is very good defensively and the first two games in the series were off the charts as far as points scored, but this is an entirely different matchup and situation.


Neither team is playing well. Golden State is averaging just 93.3 points in its last six games. Houston is turning the ball over way too much committing 59 turnovers during its last three games.


I see this game being played out closer to their matchup of nine days ago when there were just 182 points scored. James Harden and Stephen Curry are great scorers, but it's too much of a leap in faith to expect both of these teams to suddenly put on a far better offensive performance than their recent form indicates.

Utah has won 23 of its 31 home games. Only seven teams have a better home record.


The Jazz are desperately trying to earn a playoff spot. Right now they trail the Lakers by one game for the final spot in the West. They know they are far better at home than on the road. They can't afford any home losses.


The Jazz last played on Wednesday when they were blown out on the road by Oklahoma City, 110-87. The only bright spot from that game was the return of underrated forward Paul Millsap from a knee injury that had kept him out of two games.


The rested Jazz are eager to put that loss behind them. They have covered eight of the last 10 times following a loss of more than 10 points.


I like Memphis. They are normally solid on the road. But this marks the Grizzlies' fourth road game in five days and second game in high altitude in two nights. The Grizzlies no longer have a strong bench due to cost-cutting trades.


The Jazz are one of the few teams that match up well to the Grizzlies' physical, rebounding front line. Utah has won nine of the last 10 in this series. The Jazz also are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a road club with a better than .600 winning away percentage.

Cleveland proved it could win without Kyrie Irving beating much-improved Washington, 95-90, at home two nights ago. The Cavaliers also showed they could win on the road as they beat Toronto in the game before that with Irving playing less than 25 minutes.


Now the Cavaliers travel to Dallas. The Mavericks are better than Washington and Toronto. They are in a desperate struggle to reach the playoffs for a 13th straight season. Dallas, though, is four games below .500. So the Mavericks are far from being a powerhouse. This also is a good situational spot for the Cavaliers.


Even without Irving, the Cavaliers have good young talent. These players, especially underrated rookie guard Dion Waiters, want to step up and show their stuff now that they aren't overshadowed by the highly-talented but fragile Irving.


Cleveland has covered in its last four road contests. The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS following a spread cover and are 5-1 ATS during their past six visits to Dallas.


Dallas just concluded a four-game road trip with a tough one-point loss to Western Conference-leading San Antonio last night. The Mavericks scored the final seven points in their 92-91 loss to the Spurs and had the final shot, but Vince Carter missed a 3-pointer in the final second.


Now the Mavericks have to quickly turn around and play again hardly having time to adjust to being back at home. The Mavericks are one of the oldest teams in the NBA. This is their third game in four days and only the second time since Feb. 1 they are playing without rest. The Mavericks also could be without Shawn Marion for a fifth straight game due to a bruised calf.


The Cavaliers are loose, have underrated talent even without Irving and catch the Mavericks down mentally and in a potential look-ahead spot. Dallas hosts Oklahoma City on Sunday, a much bigger game for the Mavericks.

The Bulls aren't playing well, but have the necessary defense and grit to cover this short number against one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Sacramento has failed to cover the last five times when hosting the Bulls. Chicago has defeated Sacramento by double digits during its last four visits.

This is the middle of a three-game West Coast trip for Chicago. The Bulls lost bad to the Lakers this past Sunday. They have a tough game up next on Friday against Golden State. So this becomes a pivotal matchup for the Bulls, a game they can't afford to lose.

Chicago ranks in the top three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. I see the Bulls, with their tough defense, frustrating a talented but unreliable Kings backcourt. The Bulls have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt, but they are deep and Sacramento is allowing a league-worst 105.1 points per game and 115 points during its last 15 matchups.

The Kings last played this past Sunday. They do not play again until this Sunday when they meet the Lakers, a team the Kings figure to be more motivated against than Chicago. The immature Kings could have problems handling this weird scheduling set up.

We know Orlando is terrible. The Magic just might be the worst team in the NBA if not for Charlotte. But if there's one game the Magic and their fans will be sky high for it's this matchup against former teammate Dwight Howard.

If the season ended now, the Lakers would be in the playoffs. This is their first of three straight road games. They are dealing with a three-hour time difference and have far more challenging games ahead of them playing Atlanta on Wednesday and the Pacers on Friday.

So if not a letdown by the Lakers at least the backdoor figures to be open for Orlando. The Lakers are not a good road team having lost 20 of their 31 away matchups going 11-19-1 ATS. They are 6-14-1 ATS when facing a foe with a winning percentage of below .400.

Orlando has just six home games left after this one. The Magic only have 18 victories, but one came against the Lakers, 113-103, at Staples Center on Dec. 2. Howard was just nine-of-21 from the foul line. Howard is shooting a career-low 47.8 percent from the foul line.

It's not inconceivable the Magic send him to the line at least 20 more times. The Lakers were minus 17 when Howard was on the floor during the first meeting with Orlando.

The Jazz aren't playing well enough to lay this many points even to a weak foe such as the Pistons. Utah is 1-7 in its last eight games. The Jazz just finished an 0-4 road trip that ended at New York this past Saturday. This is their first home game in 10 days so their minds might be distracted.

This marks Utah's third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Jazz have been a strong home team, but are just 3-3 during their past six at EnergySolutions Arena. Utah also might be missing underrated Paul Millsap, who missed the Knicks' game this past Saturday with a sore knee. He's a game-time decision.

The Pistons shouldn't lack for motivation. They were embarrassed, 129-97, by the Clippers last night in Los Angeles. Both Greg Monroe and Jose Calderon expressed frustration with the loss with Monroe saying his team played with no effort. That's a strong criticism that should light a fire. The Pistons also have revenge for blowing a 15-point lead in a 90-87 home loss to Utah.
Detroit is 3-3 in its last six road matchups defeating Milwaukee, Charlotte and much-improved Washington. The Pistons, when motivated and catching a less-than-elite foe in a slump and in an unfavorable situational spot, can hold its own. Note, too, that the Jazz are just 1-6 ATS the past seven times when facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .400.

Oklahoma City has been playing better defense lately and you know Gregg Popovich will have his defense fired-up after the Spurs lost 136-106 at home to Portland in their last game this past Friday. The Spurs have gone under in nine of their last 10 matchups when having two days in between games.

The Spurs don't have a powerhouse offense minus injured Tony Parker. They are likely to slow down the pace against the high-scoring Thunder. The under has cashed five of the last seven times that the Spurs, when rested, have played an unrested foe as the Thunder beat Boston on Sunday.

This is the third meeting of the season between these two powerhouses. The Spurs won the first meeting, 86-84, at home in early November. That total went under by 34 points. The Thunder won the second battle, 107-93, at home on Dec. 17. That total went under by 8 1/2 points. Look for another under here.

This is my Triple Dime Blowout Shocker. Even without Tony Parker, I like Spurs to defend their home-court and beat Oklahoma City. The Thunder had to play Boston yesterday, while the Spurs have had two full days to think about a 136-106 home loss to Portland. That was their second-worst home loss ever and a total embarrassment.

No coach is better when having time to prepare than San Antonio's Gregg Popovich - and the Spurs certainly won't lack for motivation and effort either off a 33-point home loss. The Spurs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on two days rest.

Each team has protected their home turf well in this series with the host being 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times. The Spurs have covered 69 percent of their last 59 home games. Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS the last six times on the road when facing a team with a winning home mark.

The teams have split two games this season. The Spurs were without Manu Ginobili in both of those matchups. Now they have him. No Western team has done a better job defending against league scoring leader Kevin Durant than San Antonio, holding him to seven points under his average this season.

Milwaukee is a flat out better team than Sacramento. The Bucks are 5-1 in their last six games and can take advantage of Sacramento's 29th-ranking in defensive field goal percentage as all three of their guards - Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings and J.J. Redick - are playing well.

The Bucks aren't as imposing inside, but the Kings are very weak defensively, too, up front ranking last in points allowed per game.

The Kings are off a victory this past Friday against Phoenix. The young, immature Kings, though, are 2-7 SU and ATS following a win.

The Bucks have had good success on the road against the Kings covering five of the last six times in Sacramento.

Early money has moved Portland into the favorite's role in this matchup. I'm not buying that.

Yes, Portland did pull a major surprise destroying the Spurs in San Antonio, 136-106, this past Friday. That was the Spurs' second-worst home defeat in their franchise history.

It was a very impressive road win for Portland. But it doesn't erase the fact that the Trail Blazers are not a good road team. Until that shocker, the Trail Blazers had dropped seven straight outside of Rose Garden and 11 of their past 12 away matchups. This is Portland's third road game in five days. The Trail Blazers lack a strong bench to combat fatigue.

Portland also isn't very good when dropping down in competition failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times when taking on an opponent with a losing mark. New Orleans crushed the Trail Blazers, 99-63, when it last hosted them on Feb. 13. The Hornets accomplished that despite not having Eric Gordon.

Denver is playing great and Minnesota, racked by key injuries, isn't. But the Timberwolves have played the Nuggets tough and catch Denver in a bit of a letdown spot.

The Nuggets just buried the Clippers at home in their last game. That was a highly satisfying win for Denver. That was the Nuggets' 12th straight win at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets are feeling pretty smug, which is justified but isn't a good thing in the NBA when laying this many points.

The Timberwolves have beaten the Nuggets during their past two meetings. They are one of the few teams to beat Denver at Pepsi Center this season. The Timberwolves received a much needed win and confidence boost with their 87-82 home win against much-improved Washington in their last game this past Wednesday that ended a six-game losing streak.

Memphis is playing well, but the Grizzlies aren't a strong cover team at home when laying big points. Memphis is 0-4 ATS the past four times it has been favored by seven or more at home.

This is Memphis' third game in four nights, too. The Hornets are well-rested having been idle since Wednesday.

The Hornets have been itching to play, too, since blowing a 25-point lead at home in their last game this past Wednesday versus the Lakers.

New Orleans would have a far better record if it played in the weaker Eastern Conference. The Hornets have respectable talent with Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, rookie Anthony Davis and a much improved Greivis Vasquez at point guard. He's averaging 19 points a nearly 10 assists during his last three games.

The Grizzlies may be missing Zach Randolph, their leading scorer and rebounder. He's missed the past three games with an ankle injury.

This is a matchup the Warriors have been pointing to. Golden State has double revenge for a pair of losses last month to the Rockets. One came at Houston when the Rockets rubbed it in during a 140-109 victory tying a league record most 3-pointers. The other loss to Houston came at home.

The Rockets have had Golden State's number winning 16 of the last 18 times. But the Warriors have won their last four home games and have the offense, especially with hot-shooting Stephen Curry, to take advantage of a Houston defense giving up an average of 108.5 points in its last 13 games.

Houston has failed to cover in its last three games and for the season has covered only 43 percent of its away contests.

This matchup is the Mavericks' season. If Dallas loses this game, it falls seven games games behind the Rockets and Jazz for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Mavericks have made the postseason every year since 1999-2000.

The Mavericks are a prideful lot with a lot of veterans. Nearly all of them can become free agents after the season. Their futures are on the line.

Dallas just returned from a three-game road trip. After this matchup, the Mavericks go on the road for four straight games. This is their lone home game during an eight-game span. It's an absolute must-win spot.

The Rockets and Mavericks just met this past Sunday and the Rockets destroyed Dallas, 136-103. Houston has a great offense, but Dallas' lack of defense was appalling. I see the Mavericks learning from that loss with this quick turnaround, playing stronger defense. I like Dallas coach Rick Carlisle much more than his Houston counterpart, Kevin McHale.

The Mavericks have won five in a row against the Rockets at home, going 4-1 ATS. Dallas also is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home contests. Houston is 13-19 on the road, 14-17-1 ATS.

It comes down to this: The Lakers can't lose this game to the Hornets and expect to make the playoffs.

It's a back-to-back spot for the Lakers and Kobe Bryant is hurting. But I see the Lakers sucking it up and beating the Hornets, a team they have dominated and own a huge talent edge against.

The Hornets are 21-40, last in the Southwest Division. They dropped 15 of their last 17 to the Lakers, including the past nine. Los Angeles has won the past five times in New Orleans.

The Hornets blew a 17-point second-half lead at home to Orlando, which ranks with Charlotte as the worst team in the NBA, in a 105-102 loss two nights ago. It was the Hornets' sixth loss in their last eight games. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

This is a crucial game for the Jazz, who right now are holding down last playoff spot in the West. The Jazz opened their four-game road trip losing to the Bucks, 109-108 in overtime, this past Monday. The Jazz outrebounded Milwaukee, 59-42, despite not having injured Al Jefferson but shot just 40.4 percent from the floor.

After this matchup, the Jazz play back-to-back games at the Bulls and Knicks Friday and Saturday. Then they have a home game versus Detroit followed by another road game this time against powerful Oklahoma City. So the Jazz could be looking at going 1-3 in their next four games.

The Jazz probably aren't going to have Jefferson again, but they should dominate the boards against the Cavaliers, who are minus their best rebounder and defender, Anderson Varejao. The Jazz grabbed 30 more boards than Cleveland when they beat the Cavaliers at home, 109-98, back on Jan. 19.

Derrick Favors and Paul Millsap combined for 45 points and 29 rebounds versus the Bucks. Center Enis Kanter has filled in well for Jefferson, too. There's also the strong possibility the Jazz could finally get back starting point guard Mo Williams for this game.

The Celtics are rested and hot having won and covered 11 of their last 15 games. Despite losing Rajon Rondo for the season, the Celtics have proven to be feisty and gutsy.

The 76ers, on the other hand, are a dead team. They are seven games behind the Bucks for the final playoff spot in the East. Philadelphia plays 15 of its last 24 games on the road, where it has dropped 10 in a row. So the 76ers know they aren't going to make the postseason.

It seems like the 76ers have quit on coach Doug Collins. Or maybe it's the other way around.

Boston has failed to cover in seven of its last eight visits to Philadelphia, but the situation is in the Celtics' favor. Boston has been idle the past four days. The 76ers are playing for the third time in four days.

Perhaps the 76ers rise up and smack the Celtics. But the 76ers haven't done anything all season, so why should this matchup be any different?

Yes, I realize Golden State is desperate for a victory coming home after four consecutive road losses.

Still, this is not a good spot for the Warriors, especially laying points to an underrated road club that still harbors playoffs hopes, even if those hopes may be unrealistic.

Toronto has only had one bad loss during its last nine road games. During their past nine road matchups, the Raptors have won four games straight-up, including knocking off the Pacers, Knicks and Wizards. The Raptors lost by one point to Atlanta and dropped four other games in overtime, including tough losses to the Heat, Bulls and Bucks in their last game minus Rudy Gay.

The Raptors had won seven of their first 10 after trading for Gay, who missed last Saturday's game against the Bucks due to back spasms. I like the Raptors, with or without Gay even though he's expected to play.

Golden State has injuries of its own and are playing for the fifth time in seven days. This is the Warriors' first home game since Feb. 22 so they might not have their full focus coming back from such an extended road trip. The Warriors have six consecutive home contests after this one leaving more reason to doubt if the Warriors will have their full focus and motivation.

Early on the Heat had problems on the road. But that's not the case anymore. Miami has won its last five road contests by an average of 16.2 points a game. The Heat are rested, too. This is their first away matchup since Feb. 21.

The Knicks have won three in a row, but are not playing nearly as well as they did earlier in the season when they opened 18-5. The Knicks are just 17-15 in their last 32 games. New York had lost five of six before dispatching the 76ers, struggling Warriors and Wizards. The Knicks didn't have an easy time in any of those matchups.

Miami is playing its best ball winning 13 in a row. The Heat have double revenge and want to put on an impressive show at Madison Square Garden. They are the far superior team and will be highly motivated.

The Bulls aren't playing well enough, nor have enough offense to lay this many points against a team that has more wins than they do.

Chicago finished February going 5-8. The Bulls are 28th in scoring at 92.6 points per game and have been a terrible spread team through their first 30 games at United Center covering just 26 percent of their home contests.

The Bulls are averaging only 85.7 points a game during their past seven matchups. They have shot under 40 percent in four of their last seven games. Chicago was fortunately to draw the 76ers at home this past Thursday. They beat the hapless 76ers, 93-82. The 76ers are one of the few teams in a worse offensive funk than the Bulls.

The Nets are sure to be energized for this matchup after playing poorly last night in a 98-90 home loss to Dallas. Fiery P.J. Carlesimo, who has done an excellent job replacing Avery Johnson, should have the Nets motivated and playing hard after last night's stinker.

Brooklyn has played better on the road going 4-1 while holding foes to 90.8 points per game during this span.

The Mavericks should be well focused in must-win spots if they hope to make the playoffs and off a third consecutive loss this one coming this past Wednesday when they blew a 25-point lead in a 90-84 road loss to the Grizzlies.

The Mavericks have covered eight of their last nine road games. Dirk Nowitzki has been playing better. Dallas is 19-4 versus the Nets, including 5-1 during the last six meetings.

The Nets have a shorthanded backcourt with Marshon Brooks out and Joe Johnson questionable. The Nets have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home games.

The Celtics have won their last seven home games. They have covered four of the last five times as home chalk.

Golden State is 1-7 in its last eight road games with its only win and cover during this road span coming against the hapless Timberwolves by one point. The Warriors are back to playing horrid defense giving up an average of 113.1 points during these last eight road contests. They have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when facing a foe with a winning record.

Boston has been idle since Monday while the Warriors are facing serious fatigue issues as this marks their fourth road game in six days. The Warriors have lost during their past four visits to Boston.

Both Toronto and Cleveland are much improved teams. But the rested Raptors catch the Cavaliers in a tough scheduling spot and probably without their emerging superstar guard Kyrie Irving, who is expected to sit out a second straight game to rest a sore knee.

The Raptors have done the job versus sub .400 teams going 14-3 ATS. The Raptors also have covered in their past six away matchups.

Cleveland is coming off an impressive road upset of the Bulls, 101-98. That win snapped an 11-game Cavaliers' losing streak against Chicago. It was a highly satisfying victory for Cleveland. The Cavaliers, though, had to exert maximum effort to accomplish that minus Irving.

Now the Cavaliers return home to play without rest, or any time to settle in. This marks their fourth game in five days. That's tough on a depth-shy squad. Keep in mind, too, it's not just Irving who is out. The Cavaliers' best frontcourt player, Anderson Varejao, is out, too.

The Raptors have covered during their past four visits to Cleveland.

Phoenix can be dangerous at home having posted victories against the Lakers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Jazz and Nuggets at US Airways Center. The Suns also have compiled a 15-7 ATS home mark versus foes with a losing road record.

Minnesota has lost 13 of its last 15 road contests. The Timberwolves are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 away matchups. They go on the road after blowing a lead this past Sunday at home in a one-point loss to Golden State.

Both teams clearly are playing the string out, hopelessly out of the playoffs. I look for the Suns, though, to play hard at home. This matchup comes in between games against the Spurs, who the Suns last played and who they play next.

Phoenix interim coach Lindsey Hunter has started to experiment with his rotation giving twins Marcus and Markieff Morris and Wes Johnson more playing time. Johnson used to play for the Timberwolves. A maximum home effort should be forthcoming from Phoenix.

Not only can Utah, with its tall, physical frontline, cause Boston problems on the boards but the Jazz are in a great situational spot, too.

The Celtics are playing their fifth road game in seven days and third in four nights. The Celtics have key injuries and a lot of age.

Boston isn't a good road nor a good rebounding club. The Celtics rank dead last in rebounding margin. They are 6-14 ATS during their past 20 away contests.

Utah has one of the strongest homecourts. The Jazz have covered 61 percent of their games in Salt Lake City this season. They have won six of their last seven home matchups. In their last two, the Jazz defeated the Warriors by 14 points and the mighty Thunder by 15.

The Jazz are helped by having sixth man Gordon Hayward back from injury.

Boston has failed to cover 13 of its last 19 road games and is 1-7 straight-up when playing Western Conference foes on the road. That lone win came against Phoenix, the worst team in the West.

The Celtics have multiple injuries. Their key players are old and this marks their four road game in six days. Portland doesn't have a strong bench, but Wesley Matthews has returned from an injury and the Trail Blazers are playing for just the third time in 11 days.

Portland is one of the toughest venues to play at. The Trail Blazers have won of their last five home games, including defeating the Pacers, Clippers, Mavericks and Jazz during this span. The Trail Blazers did lose in their last home game, a surprising 102-98 loss to the Suns this past Tuesday. The Trail Blazers are anxious to make amends for that embarrassment.

Miami is playing great. I acknowledge that. But this is an excellent spot for an improving and motivated Cavaliers squad to cover what I see is an inflated number.

The Heat just finished a perfect 4-0 road trip last night at Philadelphia. They are returning home - with all of the Southern Miami distractions - without rest. This marks Miami's fourth game in five days. The Heat don't have a strong bench and could be missing Mike Miller again.

Cleveland is playing well. The Cavaliers have covered six of their last eight. They, too, played last night on the road rolling past Orlando, 118-94. It was the Cavaliers' most lopsided victory of the season. Cleveland coach Byron Scott was able to rest his starters the entire fourth quarter.

It was the seventh time in the last eight chances the Cavaliers have covered versus an Eastern Conference team.

Cleveland still has a chip on its shoulders about LeBron James departing to Miami. This should ensure a full effort. The Cavaliers historically have played the Heat tough in Miami covering during six of their last eight visits. The Heat just nipped the Cavaliers by two during the first meeting this season.