Golden State took part in a back and forth event last night with the Orlando Magic losing 130-129  and are now on tired legs headed into this tilt against Zion Williamson and company and  at a disadvantage after losing 4 straight games, thanks to a shoddy D, that ranks last in the league in ppg allowed (122.2). Im betting on the Pelicans who will be prepared  as hosts to take advantage of an opponents not operating on all cylinders.GOLDEN STATE is 5-16 ATS  in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 22-34 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 11-22 ATS  in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 11-32 L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -4.2. 

Play on New Orleans to cover

Utah despite of supposedly being in a rebuilding or remodeling mode have played well this season. However, now with opponents aware of the Jazz grit and top tier play to begin the season will now have zero surprise factor working for them, and will face a Dallas side prepared to play them. Also after falling asleep at the wheel in a loss vs the Orlando Magic last time out the Mavericks will be primed for a  bounce back effort.  

Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Mavericks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games are 2-31 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NBA team (UTAH) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 7-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Dallas is 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 at home in this series vs Utah.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Milwaukee pulled off a 110-108 win in the first game of this 2 game set in Wisconsin with the visiting Detroit Pistons. The  Pistons showed alot of fight and grit  in that above mentioned tilt  and Im betting they're not going down without a fight tonight. Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

DETROIT is 30-13 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 29-16 ATS  versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - team that had a winning record last season, after 4 or more consecutive wins are 8-29 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NBA  team vs the money line (DETROIT) - off a loss against a division rival against opponent off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival are 22-6 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on the Detroit  Pistons to cover 

The Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3) head to The Valley on Tuesday night to take on the Phoenix Suns (5-1) at Footprint Center.

Phoenix will be without center Deandre Ayton (ankle) for the second straight game, and despite of not not effecting them last time out vs still rebuilding Houston, it will against the Wolves.  Im betting Aytons absence will be a negative factor that will help us cash a ticket with a Minnesota side off a loss vs the Spurs last time out in what was in my opinion a look ahead situation. Now focused on their opponent Im betting we see the Wolves step up in redemption mode. 

Williams is 15-34 ATS  in home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more in all games he has coached

MINNESOTA is 27-15 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites (PHOENIX) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games are 6-25 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.  

Play on Minnesota to cover

These teams spilt the two previous contests in Minneapolis, with the Spurs winning 115-106 on Monday and Minnesota prevailing 134-122 on Wednesday. With that said, I run here with a regular season zig zag theory and support and recommend we bet the upstart Spurs at home with crowd advantage on their side. 

Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.

Spurs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Spurs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.Spurs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

 Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.Spurs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

Road favorites (MINNESOTA) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, on Sunday games are 7-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - an excellent offensive team (118 or more  PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 26-4 L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover

The Bucks are a solid defensive side ranking 1st in the NBA in ppg allowed . The Bucks  have become very physical in nature, and Im betting they matchup well here vs a run and gun offensive structure that Atlanta utilizes. ATLANTA is 5-20 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.7. ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. McMillan is 9-22 ATS  in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less  points/game as the coach of ATLANTA.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good free throw shooting team from last season - made 76% or better of their free throws, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 25-2 L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good 3 point shooting team from last season - made 36%  or better of their attempts, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 23-4 L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Milwaukee is 4-1 SU/ATS L/5 at home in this series.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

Damian Lillard averaged 33.3 points during the Trail Blazers' 4-0 start, shooting 50 percent overall and 40 percent on 3-pointers while playing 37.1 minutes per game. He was injured last time out in the Blazers first loss of the season. He is a key cog for this teams offensive flow and Im betting it effects them here tonight vs a young under rated Houston team that almost always plays a all out brand of hoops on young legs. Houston has covered their L/4 trips to Portland and get the nod again tonight. Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games dating back to last season, and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

PORTLAND is 18-36 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasonsTrail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Trail Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Play on Rockets to cover 

The 76ers lost the first game in this 2 tilt set in Toronto on Wednesday, but now I expect the   Philadelphia 76ers  to answer  back in the rematch on Friday night. Philadelphia  are going to make adjustments. It's almost like the playoffs, where you do something in Game 1, and the other side adjust to it.  I know the 76ers have struggled so far , but its early and they are more than capable behind Doc. Rivers tutelage of a bounce back beginning here tonight vs the Raptors. Note: TORONTO is 0-9 ATS in home games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

 NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 23-9 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Washington (3-1) matches up well against Indiana as was the case in their opening game of the season winning by. a 114-107 count as road dogs. With Indiana (1-4)  playing horrendous D, early on this season ranking dead last in the league in ppg allowed ( 122 ppg) they are fade material. 

INDIANA is 4-14 ATS  against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -6.4.

INDIANA is 2-11 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) - excellent defensive team (42% or less) against a struggling defensive team (47% or more ) are 30-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Washington is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in D.C. 

Play on Washington to cover 

Portland is on a big run to begin their season winning all 4 of their contests, while the Heat have looked lethargic at times and lost 3 of their first 4 games. It must be noted , however, that MIAMI is 8-0 ATS  in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons and are a resilient group with top tier chemistry and work ethic so staying in a down mode wont be permanent. Miami has won their last two visits to Portland and Im betting number 3 is right around the corner. 

PORTLAND is 11-26 ATS  L/37 off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival .  The Blazers had a 135 point output last time out against Denver in a DD win ( 135-110) so now a regressionary offensive output against a  Heat side that can play a strong brand of D wont come as a surprise. Note: Portland hasn't won at least five in a row to start a campaign since the Clyde Drexler-led squad won its first eight in 1992-93.

MIAMI is 22-8 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 30-18 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

Miami has won the last three meetings overall against the  Blazers.

Play on Miami to cover 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is up-trending in his scoring average to nearly 30 points a game last season and is off to another quick start and averaging 32.5 ppg entering this tilt.  He averaged  31.9 points per game against the Nets in the 2021 Eastern Conference semifinals and matches up very well against this current group and will be key for me in backing the Bucks to win and  cover tonight against a Nets team with early season defensive problems. 

Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 23-5 ATS L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. 

Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 45-4 L/26 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Nets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.

Nets are 16-35-1 ATS in the last 52 meetings.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

This is Detroits 3rd straight road game and they have lost the previous two by 24 and 9 points respectively and now Im betting they are at a disadvantage vs a Wizards side that  are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. note: 

Pistons are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Washington. The L/4 meetings here in DC have been won the Wizards by DD margins and a rinse and repeat situation is projected here.

NBA team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) - excellent defensive team (42% or less ) against a struggling defensive team (47% or more ) are 29-4 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.5 ppg which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (DETROIT) - off a loss against a division rival, on Tuesday nights are 1-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.2 . 

Play on Washington to cover 

After losing key players in the off season it was expected that the Jazz could easily find themselves as lottery picks by the end of this campaign. Well for now they have dispelled some of the pundits predictions, after some early season wins including a hard fought OT victory vs the Pelicans last now. However,  now on tired legs and offering up  less than deep bench Im betting they are vulnerable to being upset by their hosts the Houston Rockets this Monday night. Jazz are 16-35-4 ATS in their last 55 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Jazz are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.

Jazz are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest.Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (118 PPG or more ), after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are just 11-30 L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

After a hard fought win vs the Dallas Mavs (107-105) in their opener   the Suns had a letdown performance in game 2 of their campaign against Portland and lost 113-111 , but will now be prepared in a big way for a bounce back against the Clippers tonight. Note: 

Williams is 18-6 ATS in road games off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of PHOENIX.

Williams is 48-31 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of PHOENIX.

PHOENIX is 26-12 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

LA CLIPPERS are 13-27 ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - off a win against a division rival, first half of the season are 42-80 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (PHOENIX) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 47-20 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to win 

Donovan Mitchell is a game changer for the  Cleveland Cavaliers and Im betting he will be the difference maker here tonight in Chicago. I know LaVine is expected to make his debut tonight for Chicago after sitting out so far with a nagging  injury, but he is still less than 100% and may not play as much as is expected by the pundits. 

Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.

NBA  team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off a road loss are 33-82 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (CHICAGO) - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 6-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cavaliers to cover

Both these teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, but my special power rankings suggest the Pistons are more well conditioned than the Spurs . Considering how tanked the Pacers looked at the end of their last game which was a back and forth event vs San Antonio last night that saw them lose by a 137-134 count, I feel confident the Pistons finding. a way to get the W tonight and keep Indiana winless on the season. 

Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 5-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 6-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

Celtics played a strong game last night in Miami against what was a revenge minded Miami Heat team, that wanted redemption for last years game 7 loss to Boston. However, that expected strong effort did not materialize and instead it was Boston who came out swinging and eventually garnering a 111-104 win . After playing all out hoops last night I now expect the Bean town crew to be in a physical and emotional letdown scenario vs a young under rated Orlando squad playing at home dreaming of an upset. Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

BOSTON is 2-11 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season are 15-42 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Favorites (BOSTON) - poor foul drawing team from last season - attempted 24 or less free throws/game, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better  of their shots are 13-40 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

Miami opened this season with a loss,  116-108 to the visiting Chicago Bulls on Wednesday. The team played well and still were defeated, but Im betting on a bounce back here  by the Heat vs a Boston Celtics  side they have revenge against for a Game 7 loss in last years play offs. I know Boston looked good , in their opening win against Philadelphia on Tuesday by a 127-116 count, but will now be in emotional letdown spot after a big night where Bill Russells number was retired. 

Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Play on revenge minded Miami Heat to cover 

San Antonio is committed to a long-term rebuild as is evident by trading Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks. I know there are also question marks around Charlotte, but despite of probably not playing All-Star LaMelo Ball here tonight who has an ankle injury still is the deeper side with more experience and overall fire power. Charlotte will go big on Wednesday with a starting five of forwards Kelly Oubre Jr., Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington, center Mason Plumlee and point guard Terry Rozier in Ball's stead. Rozier averaged 19.3 points per game in 2021-22. Im betting they over power the young Spurs on their way to a win. 

CHARLOTTE is 13-3 ATS   as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons and get the nod here this Wednesday night. 

Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover

The Celtics won last season's Eastern Conference championship . The Celtics have had some bad PR surround the team , of late, as HC  Ime Udoka was suspended for the season because of a scandal and  now  the men from Bean-town move forward with  interim head coach, Joe Mazzulla. The Celtics beefed up in the off season with Blake Griffin now in the fold and the often injured but very talented Malcolm Brogodon. The chemistry of the team and hard defensive work ethic will Im betting stay intact as their ability to compete in the Eastern Conference. Note: The Celtics led the league in Defensive Rating (106.2) last season and despite of some defensive deletions including Williams III remain solid in that stopping department. 

I know there is alot of enthusiasm around Embiid and Harden in the 76ers rotation , but Im not sold that these two stars complement each other and cohesiveness is something that may not manifest for the Philly pundits. Last season the Sixers  ranked  11th in  Offensive Rating (113.0) and 12th- Defensive Rating (110.2) and Im betting at least for now those averages will not be excessively breached. 

As for tonight home court advantage will be key, and something I'll call in a tongue and cheek manner "The Tuesday Effect " 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS  on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - on Tuesday nights are 184-118 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. 

 76ers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.

76ers are 4-16 SU L/20 visits to Boston dating back to the 2015 season.

Play on Boston to cover 

Well its do or die for the Celtics tonight, and I believe they have enough talent and moxy to find a way to take this to a game 7 and more importantly get us the cover. Remember in game 5 the Celtics essentially beat themselves missing 10 FTs as Curry did not make a 3 pointer and the Warriors only shot 41% from the field. Curry can be notoriously streaky and instead of a bounce back dont be surprised if he's kept in check again. 

BOSTON is 11-1 ATS  after scoring 95 points or less this season which was the case in game 5. Average ppg diff clicks in at+ 9.7 . BOSTON is 11-2 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Warriors are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 28-67 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

The Celtics came out in game 1 of their NBA Finals series  and continued their strong play from game 7 of their series with the Miami Heat. I know zig zag theorists  would now suggest a Golden State bounce back, but Im betting the Celtics continue to give the Warriors all they can handle and according to my projections give us a cover. Note:BOSTON is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less  points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 8-1 ATS in road games as a # 2 seed in the playoffs this season.BOSTON is 4-0 straight up against GOLDEN STATE as visitors  the last 3 seasons. 

Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Celtics are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 65-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

The visiting side in the NBA Finals has won and cashed 4 straight times as dogs of -0.5 to -5 in game 2. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Play on Boston to cover 

  The Heat have dropped two straight at home to the Celtics in this series but this series has been widely erratic with each team going on a long uninterrupted offensive runs. But here in a key game 7 situation Im betting home court advantage will be golden.  Note: The Heat are 36-14 SU  and 30-19-1 (61.2%) ATS  as hosts this season.Also from a historical betting viewpoint it must also be noted that  Home teams in Game 7 after winning their previous game by a margin of six or greater like the Heat did  are a perfect 15-0 straight up  going back 22 seasons. 

MIAMI is 20-8 ATS  as an underdog this season.MIAMI is 10-2 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season.

BOSTON is 15-28 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 29-9 SU L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

I know the Heat have not looked good in recent games, especially on offense, but this team is deep and have enough pride to rally here tonight as they are being openly disrespected by the pundits and the lines-makers alike. 

MIAMI is 15-6 ATS  as a road underdog this season. MIAMI is 7-0 ATS  in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. MIAMI is 15-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. MIAMI is 10-2 ATS  when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.

BOSTON is 2-11 ATS  in home games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 116-66 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. 

NBA team vs the money line (MIAMI) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) vs. an excellent defensive team (104 or lrdd  PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 59-16 L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

The Mavericks avoided being eliminated last time out, but worked very hard to get the win, and are now exhausted after playing an extended amount of post season basketball. Im betting this is not a good spot for them, and are in big time jeopardy of losing this tilt by 8 or more points.

Warriors are 7-0 ATS in the playoffs coming back home after losing on the road when the line is between -7 and -8.5 with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 20.86 ppg.

GOLDEN STATE in 20  home games versus sub par offensive teams - scoring 108 or less  points/game this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.6.  GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.

Play on Golden State to cover 

Both these teams are banged up in what is turning into a back forth battle between two very evenly matched teams, which has me taking points tonight. I know Butler sat out the entire 2nd half in game 3 but is expected  back tonight for at least a portion of the game and even in limited use gives us an edge. If  butler  does not play Lowry and center Bam Adebayo make a formidable duo that wont be easily handled especially with Smart and Jason Tatum hobbled with injuries and less than 100%. 

MIAMI is 10-1 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog this season. MIAMI is 11-3 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. MIAMI is 20-9 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Conference Finals games. MIAMI is 16-7 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. MIAMI is 16-6 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

Celtics are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Finals games.

Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

The Mavericks came back in game 2 and  scored 72 first-half points as they led by as much as 19. However, they exerted to much energy early and did not pace themselves and  faltered down the stretch. Here in game 3 Im betting the Mavericks work more methodically and do enough damage needed behind the energy of their  home crowd and  motor themselves to a victory and more importantly a cover. DALLAS is 13-2 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. 

DALLAS is 20-8 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.DALLAS is 17-6 ATS off a road loss this season.DALLAS is 11-2 ATS  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS  in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. GOLDEN STATE is 11-23 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 60-30 L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 

After watching the Celtics manhandle the Heat in game 2 of this series, alot of money has come down on Boston. Wrong or right Im going to take a contrarian stance, with the under rated Heat and their ability to bounce back in true zig zag theory. It must be noted for whatever reason, I began to focus on the Heats progressions closely this season, and according to my power rankings are vastly under rated and with 6+ points to take on the table Im betting we get a cover. 

BOSTON is 7-18 ATS  in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Conference Finals games.Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win

MIAMI is 15-6 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. MIAMI is 18-6 ATS   as an underdog this season. Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

MIAMI is 15-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. MIAMI is 15-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.

NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 58-28 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Heat are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.

Play on Miami to cover 

The dominance of home teams continued in this series as the Mavericks cruised to a 113-86 win over the Suns and Im betting nothing changes in game 7. 

PHOENIX is 11-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.

PHOENIX is 19-8 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicks in at +10.7. 

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 29-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate fro bettors with the average ppg  diff clicking in at +13.7 which qualifies on the ATS line offering. 

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover 

Kris Middleton remains out for the Bucks. Dating back to last season, the Bucks are 14-15 SU and 12-17 ATS in games without Middleton. This situation has put alot of pressure on on. Antetokounmpo and he has had to carry this team on his shoulders for much of this series, and watching him in game 6 it became obvious to me that he was exhausted and banged up. Considering this Im betting the Celtics have the edge here in game 7. 

BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. BOSTON is 27-10 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. BOSTON is 21-7 ATS  after a combined score of 205 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 9-22 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 13-30 ATS  after 3 straight games out-rebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Boston to win 

The Golden State Warriors came out flat at the worst possible time in game 5 of this series losing 134-95 on the road. They had the opportunity to take advantage of a Memphis team playing without their top player Morant and instead fell flat on their faces. That Im betting wont happen again.  GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. GOLDEN STATE is 23-7 ATS  in home games after allowing 130 points or more. 

Kerr is 14-2 ATS   in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

 NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 28-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.7 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Golden State to cover 

The Phoenix Suns are one victory away from a second straight trip to the Western Conference finals and now Im betting with blood in the water are dangerous opponents in this spot . They made the adjustment they needed to vs Dallas and beat them 110-80 last time out, and that scheme series is highly probable to continue tonight. 

PHOENIX is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 22-9 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (DALLAS) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are just 22-54 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Suns are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas.

Play on Phoenix to cover 

This series has been a homer event, since game 1 with the hosts holding an advantage in their own back yard and Im betting nothing changes tonight in Philly. 

 Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.

76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MIAMI) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more points are 8-42 L/26 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate. 

Play on the 76ers to win/cover

Memphis in game 4 found a way to stay competitive without Ja Morant in the lineup, but I doubt they will be that good again as they rallying cry will fade as will Golden States previous inability to read the Grizzlies defensive schemes. What Im saying is that the Warriors will adjust here and get the win . MEMPHIS is 2-12 ATS when facing elimination in a playoff series since 1996.

Kerr is 15-5 ATS in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 19-63 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate.

Play on Golden State to cover 

After watching the Celtics come back and almost take game 3 of this series losing 103-101 and than  take command with a  game 4  116-108 victory it became obvious to me the momentum had swung into the Celtics favor. With Kris Middleton still on the sidelines for Milwaukee the Celtics are a strong play , especially here at home.Bucks are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.

Bucks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. MILWAUKEE is 13-30 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Celtics are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 playoff games as a favorite. BOSTON is 11-1 ATS ( versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.

BOSTON is 11-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Boston to cover 

The home team has won every game and the series is tied 2-2 going into Game 5 on Tuesday night in Phoenix and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Suns super star lead the team with 35 points in the game 4 loss, but  as quoted is ready for a the ups and downs of any post season series QUOTE: "We understand that it's a series," Booker said. "It's the playoffs for a reason. "We're going to make our adjustments. ... I think we just have to flush it and move on to the next game." END QUOTE. 

PHOENIX is 14-0 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a average pgg diff clicking in at +15.6 . 

PHOENIX is 10-1 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. 

PHOENIX is 18-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under +10. 

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 47-92 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phoenix to cover 

This series has been a homer affair to this point and Im betting home court advantage to once again be golden as the 76ers visit south Florida to take on the Heat. Note:76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and  are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. 76ers are also  0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Interesting anomaly:  PHILADELPHIA is 0-9 ATS  on Tuesday nights this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-22 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.

Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. MIAMI is 20-7 ATS   versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season. 

NBA Road underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams ( 36.5% or more ), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 11-32 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

 Ja Morant suffered a knee injury and is officially doubtful and expected to miss Game 4, according coach Taylor Jenkins. This is a big blow for the Grizzlies both mentally and on the court as the young super star is heart beat of the team. Im betting Golden State takes this opportunity and makes the most of it in what should likely be a conclusive DD win much like in Game 3 .Grizzlies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

GOLDEN STATE is 16-7 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a average ppg diff clicking in at +11.2.  GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more this season with the average pgg diff coming in at +12.2. 

NBA Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread are 174-116 ATS L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover 

Im betting on key cog Giannis Antetokounmpo   to help lead Milwaukee to a 3-1 series advantage when the Bucks host the Boston Celtics on Monday night in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. In game 3 he potted 42 points, 12 rebounds and had eight assists and his dominance should continue tonight vs a defense that he matches up well against. Bucks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games  and  are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite. The Bucks have lost all 3 games here at home this week. 

NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 11-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Sixers stormed back in game 3 of this series with a convincing win  and proved that they are formidable opponents for the Heat especially here at home where Im betting the 76ers have the edge behind the energy of their vocal fans.Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

PHILADELPHIA is 47-34 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Philadelphia to win /cover

Dallas rebounded at home in Game 3 with a 103-94 win over the Suns to get this series to 2-1. Trying to replicate  another victory Im betting will not come so easily for the Mavs here in game 4. The Mavs allowed an   average of 125 points in the first two games and played with non stop energy in game 3, but like i said above replicating that type of energy wont be easy against a  Suns side, that can easily rebound into explosive mode at any time. 

PHOENIX is 9-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. PHOENIX is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season. PHOENIX is 15-3 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.

PHOENIX is 14-4 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.PHOENIX is 16-5 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Williams is 22-8 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents as the coach of PHOENIX.

Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.Suns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Conference Semifinals games.

Suns are 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings.Suns are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Dallas.

Play on the Suns to win. 

The young Grizzlies left everything on the floor as they escaped with a 106-101 late surge victory in game 2 . Now in enemy territory in a hostile environment, vs an experienced post season team, Im betting an emotional letdown scenario is a viable scenario here in game 3, which will effect their ability to stay at the same level of energy the home side will have.  GOLDEN STATE is 20-9 ATS  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and are  16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

Kerr is 13-1 ATS  in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - playing with 3 or more days rest, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 130-79 L/26 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play on Golden State to cover 

The Celtics evened the series with a win at home last time out, and now Im expected a bounce back by the Bucks here at home in game 3 in true zig zag theory .  Note: Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite and  are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 80-20 L/5 seasons for  80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season are 52-25 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 11-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 20 or more of their last 25 games are 25-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

The Suns matchup very well against the Mavs as was evident in game 2 of this series and have an edge here even as visitors. Suns are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Dallas. PHOENIX is 11-1 straight up against DALLAS as visitors over the last 3 seasons. 

PHOENIX is 16-4 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 14-3 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

PHOENIX is 22-7 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

PHOENIX is 21-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (DALLAS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Friday nights are 14-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover /win 

With key cog Joel Embiid out of the Sixers lineup, they are very over matched and vulnerable to another DD beatdown at the hands of a deep Miami Heat squad. Miami is 5-1 SU/L/6 at home in this series. 

PHILADELPHIA is 4-15 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 33-2 L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.9 . 

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

The Warriors squeaked out a 117-116 win and game 1 of this series, and have the guns to turn the trick here again in game 2.  GOLDEN STATE is 35-19 ATS L/54 off a road win by 3 points or less . Kerr is 15-4 ATS  in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. Jenkins is 8-20 ATS  after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of MEMPHIS.

Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

GOLDEN STATE is 36-17 ATS L/53  vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season .

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-71 L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate.

Play on Golden State to cover 

 The Celtics came out flat in game 1 of this series and played an absolute clunker losing a 101-89 count vs a Bucks side that probably played their best defensive game of the play offs. Now Im betting on the Celtics bouncing back with a big effort here and for the defending champs to have a regressive event after playing such an emotionally charged game 1.  Note: BOSTON is 9-0 ATS  after scoring 95 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 8-21 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

BOSTON is 24-9 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. BOSTON is 15-7 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-57 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

Dallas is a fine team, and matched up well against the Utah Jazz in their last series, but I dont believe at this point that the Mavs do not matchup all that well vs the Suns as was evident by losing  three times this season to Phoenix . With  the previously injured Devon Booker back in the lineup for the Suns they have an edge here on their own home floor. 

Suns are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

PHOENIX is 27-7 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 47-87 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Phoenix to cover

Previously injured Jimmy Butler (knee), is expected to  return at home to face the Sixers on Monday in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Meanwhile, the Sixers with be without key offensive cog Joel Embiid (concussion). The Sixers went 6-8 without Embiid during the regular season and are at a disadvantage here vs a deep side. 

PHILADELPHIA is 9-19 ATS off a road win this season (Took To out on the road last time out) NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home win are just 19-48 L/26 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 48-7 L/26 seasons with a pgg diff of +9.3 which qualifies on this offered ATS line.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 32-2 L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.8. 

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 5-33 L/5 seasons for a 87% go against conversion rate for bettors with a ppg diff og -8 points which qualifies on this ATS offering, 

Play on the Heat to cover 

These teams are evenly matched according to my current numbers, with home court advantage Im betting being the difference maker.

Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Grizzlies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Timberwolves are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Timberwolves are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MINNESOTA) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 36-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

Since Devon Booker went down the Suns have not looked like the same team, and that was very evident the last time these teams played here in New Orleans  as the Pelicans won  by 15 points. Im betting the desperation of the do or die situation here tonight will have the Pelicans ready to extend to this series to a final game 7. 

Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. Pelicans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games.

NEW ORLEANS is 38-24 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Pelicans to cover 

This has been a big time back and forth series between two young talented teams. The Wolves played lights in the last game in this series and won. Now Im betting on a bounce back scenario here tonight, at home where the Grizzlies have thrived this season, as is evident by a  31-12 SU record along  with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +9.1 . 

MINNESOTA is 9-21 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and is is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after a win by 6 points or less this season.

MEMPHIS is 14-3 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season and is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season.

Interesting anomaly, MEMPHIS is 8-0 ATS  on Tuesday nights this season.

NBA team (MINNESOTA) - as a # 7 seed in the playoffs are 102-163 L/26 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover 

The Miami Heat are the far superior side here according to my power rankings and for the most part have proved that prognosis correct during this series. More of the same one sided action is my call here again tonight in South Florida. 

MIAMI is 18-4 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS  in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 1-12 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 3-14 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - off a home loss, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 52-105 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

This usually offensively explosive Utah side has been really tamed by the Mavericsk top tier defense, and now with home court advantage on their side and Doncic back in the lineup the home team looks very much like a viable side to back on a short fav line. Note: Not only has the Jazz offense faltered, but their perimeter D continues to be exposed like in last seasons post season tilts. Advantage Dallas. 

UTAH is 3-12 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 9-23 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

DALLAS is 11-2 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season this season. DALLAS is 11-2 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DALLAS) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 36-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams (UTAH) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games are 36-67 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Dallas to. cover 

This is it for Brooklyn- do or die. Im betting on do, and for the Nets to extend this series to game 5. Im obviously expecting Kyrie Irving to do as well as he did in game 1 and for Durant to finally break through after being continually frustrated by the Celtics . Based on what we have seen in the series so far I know the Nets do not look like a viable option. However,  this is a more talented Brooklyn team than both Denver and Toronto and both sides have found a way to extend their series and Im betting the Nets do as well. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) - revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, off a home loss against a division rival are 26-3 L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 20 or more of their last 25 games are 25-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

The Suns fell asleep at the proverbial wheel in game two their series vs the Pelicans, but thanks to bering nudged out of a coma, they are now fully awake and ready to perform at a top level here in a pivotal game in this series. key to this game is  suns C  Paul  who was masterful in Game 3. He scored 28 on 10-18 shooting. The top tier  guard also  dished out 14 assists. With Devon Booker out Im betting on Ayton and Chris Paul doing a double shuffle and to pick-and-roll all night against a inexperienced New Orleans defense.

  PHOENIX is 11-2 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 33-19 ATS versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.PHOENIX is 15-3 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 13-2 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

PHOENIX is 21-6 ATS in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Suns are 6-1 SU/ATS L/7 visits to New Orleans.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

Atlanta made a miraculous comeback in game 3 of this series,  after falling behind by 16 points late in the 3rd quarter after a 21-0 Miami run, and took a 111-110 victory. Unfortunately however for the Hawks they spent alot of energy in that come from behind win, and will now find it difficult to come up here with the same effort against a side that Im betting is more talented and wide awake now after that above mentioned collapse. I know Kyle Lowry may not be 100% with a hamstring injury, but he is expected to play and even if he does not I still like the Heats depth to get the job done.  

MIAMI is 17-4 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or more of their attempts this season.

ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less this season. 

NBA Road favorites (MIAMI) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite, off a upset loss as a favorite are 108-62 ATS L/28 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

The defending champs have made adequate adjustments of the course of this series to be able to easily deal with whatever the Bulls can muster. That was evident in game 3 of this series as the Bucks romped to a 111-81 victory. Im betting the Bulls will perform better here today but it wont be enough. Also no Buck players breached the 20 point plateau in a team effort. Im betting super star Antetokounmpo comes back alot stronger in this tilt and helps lead his team to victory. 

Milwaukees HC Budenholzer is 19-3 ATS L/22 in road games after 2 consecutive division games in all games he has coached . 

MILWAUKEE is 20-9 ATS as a road favorite this season.

CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more are 72-27 ATS L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 7-29 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucs to cover

After losing game 1 of this series, to the Wolves , the Grizzlies have bounced back and taken control of this series, and Im betting on more relentless two way pressure from them here again tonight. in Minnesota  MEMPHIS is 34-20 ATS  as a favorite this season.MEMPHIS is 24-13 ATS as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 24-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Minnesota.Grizzlies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.

Grizzlies are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 1 days rest.

Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Minnesota.

Play on the Memphis to cover 

This it do or die for the Raptors today and just like in game 3 Im betting they leave everything on the floor and get us the cover. 

Nurse is 25-8 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games as the coach of TORONTO.

TORONTO is 8-1 ATS  in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-18 ATS  off a road win this season.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (TORONTO) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season 35-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (TORONTO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite and 51-21 ATS for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto Raptors to cover 

 The Pelicans surprised the Suns with a big time performance in game 2 of this series, and now Im betting the Suns will be primed for a big bounce back effort here in the Bayou this Friday night.  NBA team (PHOENIX) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 39-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog, with a losing record. are 10-32 ATS L/5 season for a 76% go against conversion rate. 

PHOENIX is 14-3 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.PHOENIX is 15-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.PHOENIX is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.PHOENIX is 20-6 ATS in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.PHOENIX is 12-2 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover 

Chicago has played the Bucks tough this season, and upset them in game 2 in a closely contested tilt. I know the Bulls seem to have figured out how to be competitive and thrive against the Bucks , but the Bucks are also learning why they're getting frustrated by the Bulls and Im betting we see the visitors and NBA Champs finding a way to get the job done . Remember the Bulls have  been very inconsistent for a good part of the 2nd half of this season, and on a micro handicapping basis might seem to have an edge because of K Middletons absence from the Bucks lineup.  But the truth is Milwaukee is still the deeper team and must be respected here as short favs. 

From a SRS perspective Milwaukee ranks 7th  at 3.22 in the NBA while the Bulls rank 20th with a -0.38 mark. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

Chicago’s 4-8 home-underdog ATS mark, is tied for the fourth-worst covering percentage in the NBA this season. 

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 39-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Bucks to cover 

The Raptors after 2 straight DD losses in Philadelphia are now in desperation mode here in game 3. Needless to say the Raptors need a victory, and Im betting they leave everything on the florr tonight and get us the cover. TORONTO is 23-9 ATS L/32  after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more.

NBA  team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against division rivals, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 12-23 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - after allowing 63 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 42-22 L/25 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

TORONTO is 5-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons at home.

Take the points with Toronto 

Im going to keep this selection explantation brief. The Hawks simply and generally do matchup well vs the Heat, and here on the road where the Hawks have struggled against top tier sides are once again in trouble. The Heat dominated game 1 as the final 115-91 score would indicate. Rinse and repeat type game highly like to be duplicated here. 

Heat are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 playoff games as a favorite.

ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS   in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS   as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.

 Hawks are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami

Play on Miami to cover 

With Luka Doncic downgraded to doubtful Monday vs Utah ( Calf ) the Jazz become  viable option here as road favs. The Jazz dominated game 1 of this series, without the Euro star in the Mavs   lineup and a rinse and repeat scenario is highly likely, with the zig zag theory taking a back seat for the mean time. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - off a home loss, in April games are 66-122 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against  65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games, second half of the season are 31-4 with the average margin ppg diff registering in at +11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS line as a viable trend. 

Play on Utah Jazz to cover 

Previous to game 1 of this series the Raptors and the Sixers took part in 3 straight games that were decided by exactly 5 points and prior to that they played 4 straight games that were deiced by 6, 7,7,7  points. All in total Toronto won 4 of those 7  tilts SU, and in true zig zag theory are a viable cover option here in game 2 of this series according to my projections. From a SRS perspective  the Raptors rank 11th in the NBA with a 2.38 mark, while Philadelphia ranks 9th with a 2.57 mark, making them virtually even in a neutral court environment , but with home floor advantage are rue 4.5 favs, which is gives us value on this offered line. The DD, win by the 76ers has tainted the line, and gives us an edge on a cover proposition. Note:Nurse is 22-8 ATS  after a blowout loss by 15 points or more as the coach of TORONTO. TORONTO is 33-19 ATS  in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.Raptors are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

76ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after scoring 125 points or more are 18-49 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

The Heat are well rested while the Hawks have played hard in two wins to get to this point, and will now be in a letdown spot vs what my power rankings suggest is a superior side. 

ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS   in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 15-3 ATS\ versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

Play on Miami to cover 

The last 3 meetings this season between these teams were deiced by 5 points with the one game back in November decided by 6 points with the Raptors covering all 4 games while winning 3 straight up. Im betting on another close game, and for the under rated Raptors getting us the cover today with a 5 point advantage which is key to this selection advantage . 

TORONTO is 29-15 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season. TORONTO is 19-7 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season. TORONTO is 25-16 ATS  in road games this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 6-14 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.

NBA home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 49-84 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate.

Play on Toronto to cover 

Entering the play offs the Clippers were red hot having won 5 straight games.   .Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The last time these teams mets here in  Los Angeles this season the Clippers won the final meeting, 119-100 at home on April 3. Rinse and repeat scenario here. 

Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.

NEW ORLEANS is 10-27 ATS  L/37 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival .

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

The Hawks looked strong in the 2nd half of the season, and must be respected here at home. Note: Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and  are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record as well as  4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.McMillan is 20-7 ATS in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of ATLANTA. Meanwhile , Charlotte , also played well down the stretch, but Im betting home court advantage is the difference maker this evening. In 4 previous meetings this season,Charlotte won by margins of three and 10 points. Atlanta's victories came by 10 and 22 points. Rinse and repeat victory is what Im betting on here this evening in Georgia. 

Play on Atlanta Hawks to cover

Im betting on the Wolves coming out here and finishing their season off strong vs a side that they have revenge against for a loss they suffered to Chicago in the only game between these teams this season. The Wolves are 4-0 ATS L/4 last games of the season. 

CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bulls are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - off a home loss, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 54-101 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Miami enters into this game against state rivals Orlando having won 6 straight SU/ATS and will want to finish off their season in strong form here going into the play offs. The Magic lost last time out by DDs and have lost 4 of their L/5 by DDs, and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today.  ORLANDO is 1-9 ATS  in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.

ORLANDO is 10-22 ATS  as a home underdog this season with the average ppg at 11.1 diff.ORLANDO is 8-21 ATS in home games when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons with a average ppg diff of 11.1 ppg. 

Miami Heat to cover 

I know the Bucks will rest players today before the play offs, but Im betting on a strong effort from who ever plays as the Bucks have revenge on board for two nasty losses to the Cavaliers this season by scores of 115-99 here in January, and 119-90 as hosts  in December . Add to that Cleveland is not in good form of late losing 3 straight and 5 of their L/6 and have failed to cover 9 of their L/11 as nothing seems to come easy for Cavs . Advantage taking points with the defending champs. Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.Cavaliers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

MILWAUKEE is 14-4 ATS  in road games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons. Budenholzer is 44-16 ATS  vs. division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA  team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, after a cover as a double digit favorite are 41-14 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

The Pelicans come in there with the 9th spot and a play off entry ticket if they can maintain their standing, so needless to say they will be playing hard tonight against a team that will want to be healthy and rested with the play offs starting next week. With the Grizzlies probably resting some players at different degrees tonight, they may not be playing with optimum output which gives is a viable opportunity to cash with the road dog. Add to that the Pelicans have revenge on board for a DD loss to the Grizzlies this season, and you have a very motivated side to back. Note: New Orleans is 4-1 ATS this season playing with revenge for a 20+ point loss. Also NBA team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, after a cover as a double digit favorite are 40-13 SU L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season.

New Orleans is 8-2 ATS L/10 overall.

New Orleans is 9-3 ATS L/12 in this series and have won 8 of those games SU. 

Play on New Orleans to cover 

The Bucks played last night against Boston, and won, but instead of being in a letdown spot, Im expecting them to push forward as they concentrate on  building momentum as the post season starts next week.  Im also betting that a revenge factor will aid my  choice of laying lumber with visiting Milwaukee, as they look for redemption for a 115-106 loss at home back in January. Note: The Bucks are 16-1 SU L/17  in this series, including 12-0 SU and 11-0-1 ATS in games in which the Pistons own a  .200 win percentage or better. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-2 ATS   in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 33%  or less of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (DETROIT) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Friday nights are 14-52 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

The Raptors have been cash machines for their betting  backers of late cashing 11 of their L/14 overall and  are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record like the visiting 76ers. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and according to my power rankings are viable investment options here tonight at home where they have won 5 of their L/6 overall SU. 

76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. 

TORONTO is 15-7 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. TORONTO is 16-7 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent are 48-17 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto to cover 

I know this is the  Suns  second night of back-to-back,  after rolling over the Lakers , but this is a    a young  well conditioned side  in top form thats wants to keep momentum moving upward as the play offs approach.The Suns have a 31-8 SU away record and must be respected here at Staples even with the Clippers Paul George playing lights out hoops. Bottom line is the Suns have more than enough firepower down the stretch to pull off a road victory here this evening. Note: Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. LA CLIPPERS are 0-9 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season. LA CLIPPERS are 4-17 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.

Suns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. 

PHOENIX is 13-3 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 11-2 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NBA  Road favorites (PHOENIX) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 30-6 ATS L/5  seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

NBA Home underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 51-100 L/26 seasons for a go against  66% conversion rate. 

Play on Phoenix to cover 

After a hard fought loss to Dallas on Sunday afternoon Im betting the Bucks after two straight losses will be primed to get redemption and bounce back in a big way today vs a Chicago side they matchup well against. Note: Milwaukee ranks 8th with a 2.86 mark in the league in SRS while the Bulls rank 17th with a 0.13 average. 

Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.

Bulls are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog.

Bulls are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

MILWAUKEE is 23-13 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less  turnovers/game this season. MILWAUKEE is 26-13 ATS vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.Budenholzer is 42-16 ATS vs. division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home underdogs (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 19-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a 685 go against conversion rate for bettors.

N

BA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - off a home loss, in April games are 65-119 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

MILWAUKEE is 9-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons.Bucks are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

Atlanta took out a very good Brooklyn team at home last time out fro their 6th straight victory, and could easily be in a emotional letdown spot here vs the Raptors on the road tonight. Playing away from Georgia has not been a positive experience for Hawks backers this season as is evident by their 13-25 overall ATS record as visitors and Im betting they will have problems with a Toronto side that had a 5 game win streak abruptly ended last time out by a top tier Miami side. Now in redemption mode Im betting on a Raptors crew that is 11-3 SU/ATS L/14 to come out here with a start to finish effort and get us the win and cover. Note: TORONTO is 17-7 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

ATLANTA is 9-21 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Hawks are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

Hawks are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Toronto.

 NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 75-38 ATS L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto Raptors to cover 

With a week left in the regular season, the Los Angeles Lakers are on the brink of not even reaching the play-in tournament. Ill say no more. Desperation on board here, as Davis and James are expected to be pushed into action. 

DENVER is 21-30 ATS  as a favorite this season.

DENVER is 0-8 ATS  after 4 straight games out-rebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 2 seasons. Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 30-20 L/26 seasons for a 60% conversion rate.

LA LAKERS is 9-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Bucks enter this game dealing with some nagging injuries to K Middleton, Jrue Holiday Giannis Antetokounmpo . Yes, they are expected to play today, but they are less than 100%  and in a physical game against a top tier Mavericks defense their flow offensive could easily be interrupted. Meanwhile, Dallas was probably caught looking ahead to this Sunday afternoon tilt, and  lost at Washington last time out in ugly DD fashion as big road favs. Im expecting the Mavs to come out here with redemption in mind and to get their 3rd straight cover here in Milwaukee.  Note:DALLAS is 12-1 ATS  in road games off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.DALLAS is 20-9 ATS   after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.DALLAS is 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season this season. Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.Mavericks are 4-0-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee.

Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 

After some struggles the Heat have won two in a row with the lat one coming against a red hot Boston Celtics squad. Now with momentum on their sides going into Chicago Im betting the Heat have an edge vs a Bulls side that exerted alot of effort last time out in a come from behind victory. After playing 5 straight games on the road prior to their last hard fought game, Im betting this is a letdown spot for them. 

MIAMI is 12-3 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season. MIAMI is 27-11 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game this season.

MIAMI is 24-8 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  after a combined score of 205 points or less this season.

NBA team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 265 points or more are 7-25 L/26 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 14-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

MIAMI is 7-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons and 3-0 SU /ATS L/3 visits to Chicago. 

Play on Miami to cover 

 Denver has won three tilts in a row, two of those games came against lowly Oklahoma city and Indiana while the Timberwolves have had a few issues of late , losing four of their last five games to fall behind in the race for one of the top six seeds and a guaranteed postseason spot. The one win in their recent negative run came against top tier opponent Dallas so its not like they have fallen off a cliff.  Now in desperation mode Im betting the young talented  Wolves come out here and leave everything on the court in the Mile High City tonight and get us the cover. Note: Minnesota has covered their L/4 visits to Denver. 

DENVER is 0-8 ATS after 4 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 4-12 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

MINNESOTA is 23-11 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

NBA Home favorites (DENVER) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 12-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota  Wolves to cover 

The Lakers are short handed with James and Davis both out, but are in desperation mode as they try to grab the last play off spot, as they battle San Antonio for the final position. Meanwhile, Utah has lost 5 straight and are off a torturous 6 game road trip that culminated in an ugly loss vs their nemesis the LA clippers last time out, after leading by DDs. With the Jazz still winded after their long road trip and on only one days rest, Im betting against them here, especially since they are expected to be without  Bojan Bogdanovic and reserves Hassan Whiteside and Danuel House Jr. . Guard Trent Forrest left the game against the Clippers early with a concussion, and is unlikely to play tonight. Note: Lakers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Jazz are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.

UTAH is 19-35 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.UTAH is 13-22 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record this season. UTAH is 6-16 ATS ( when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.UTAH is 9-20 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

LA LAKERS are 23-12 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 14-43 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. 

Lakers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

The Cavaliers are once again expected to without Mobley and Allan tonight and are on tired legs after playing last night and losing in a hard fought loss to Dallas last night, failing to cover in 6 straight . That is not a good recipe for success against a Hawks side that always seems to pick up their game at home vs above .500 sides. Note: ATLANTA is 21-9 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 2-16 ATS after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 2 seasons.  CLEVELAND is 4-20 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 245 points or more are 43-4 L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10 , which easily qualifies on this ATS line. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Kings play their best hoops vs lower tier sides as is evident by a recent  4-0 ATS run  in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Meanwhile ,the Rockets are just  8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. With Davion Mitchell in top form for the Kings averaging ,   21.6 points and 7.2 assists  in his L/5 games with increased minutes the visitors seem to be inspired of late.

Silas is 19-39 ATS  as a home underdog as the coach of HOUSTON

Gentry is 58-34 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached

NBA  team vs the money line (HOUSTON) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 9-36 L/5 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Sacramento to cover 

The Raptors seem to always bring their A game for games against strong sides and Im betting they have the edge here tonight. 

MINNESOTA is 4-14 ATS  after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher over the last 3 seasons.

TORONTO is 15-7 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

TORONTO is 9-1 ATS  versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. TORONTO is 26-14 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Raptors are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 50-17 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

TORONTO is 21-4 L/25 SU straight up against MINNESOTA .

Play on the Toronto to cover 

The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record like Charlotte and have an edge here tonight.

Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. 

NEW YORK is 35-14 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 23-7 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 10-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Mavs had had some cover issues on the road of late failing in their L/4 attempts to deliver the cash to their betting backers. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and  are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog and according to my own numbers have an edge. 

DALLAS is 4-13 ATS  in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 22-12 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (104-108 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 11-38 L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 

A month ago I would have laid the lumber with the Bulls , but in their current form they do not deserve the favorite role especially on the road .  I know the Wizards may not inspire bettors but they have shown an ability to competitive of late winning 3 of their L/5 straight up and have covered 4 of their L/6. Note: Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS in road games in March games this season.CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.CHICAGO is 3-11 ATS   in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.

Play on Washington to cover 

Boston took out Minnesota last night in start to finish action. the Celtics put forward alot of energy which followed uo win vs Utah and previous to that a west coast road swing. So now on tired legs in a back to back situation and this being their 7th game in 12 days Im betting the fresher Raptors have an edge. Note: Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.  Raptors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

BOSTON is 0-10 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 30-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Toronto to cover 

Both sides have key players banged up and not playing, and it's down to  which side  has more bench strength. I know the prevailing opinion would be the Warriors are deeper, but Warriors have shown glitches without their super star Curry in the lineup and without him on the floor their cohesiveness is consistently questioned. With that said, I will take the points with the home side.  Golden State is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.Warriors are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

 GOLDEN STATE is 18-30 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons. Kerr is 23-39 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, in March games are 35-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

Play on Washington to cover 

Minnesota beat Boston at home back in December of this season, and according to my matchup power rankings matchup well here vs the Celtics. BOSTON is 11-26 ATS   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Also from a SRS matchup perspective the Wolves rank 7th in the league with 3.42 mark while the Celtics rank 2nd with a 6.20 average. So with home court advantage, thrown in we have value with the line that should be closer to -5 to -5.5 . Advantage taking points. 

Celtics are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

MINNESOTA is 23-10 ATS   versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season.

NBA Home favorites (BOSTON) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 11-28 ATS L/.5 seasons for a go against  71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Bucks beat the Grizzlies back in January at home, and now the Grizzlies are primed and motivated to return the favor. MEMPHIS is 18-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. With Khriss Middleton playing with a nagging wrist injury, Jrue Holiday expected to miss, and almost alwys banged up super star Giannis Antetokounmpo less than 100% the home side has the edge. 

Budenholzer is 18-33 ATS L/51 on the road when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

MILWAUKEE is 7-20 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 8-1 ATS  against Central division opponents this season. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 33-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 11-35 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against  76% conversion rate. 

Play on Memphis to cover 

The Heat were short handed last time out, and did not play. a consistent game and ended up on the wrong side off a DD loss to Golden State . Im betting however, that the Heat are deep enough to bounce back here even if Butler does not play and get us the cover here at home vs an inconsistent loss . Note: Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit win as a underdog of 6 points or more are 1-31 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -10.1 ppg which qualifies on this ATS line. 

Knicks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami.Knicks are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

I know key cogs Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are out for the Bucks, but Im betting they still have enough firepower to dispose of a up and down side like the Wizards who have lost 7 of their L/8 games overall and just lost to a very young Houston side last time out by DDs. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 8-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Cleveland has not been very inconsistent lately especially on defense, and are vulnerable road dogs here vs a Toronto side, that has won 6 of their L/8 . The Raps did lose last time out to a revenge minded Chicago side, but Im betting  this well rested home side will be ready to bounce back here  vs a CLEVELAND side that  is 0-8 ATS  in road games after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 2 seasons. Note: Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.

CLEVELAND is 17-33 ATS  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

TORONTO is 25-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.   Raptors are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.

Play on Toronto Raptors to cover 

Minnesota lost a closely contested battle vs Dallas last time out 110-108 and will be ready for a bounce back here vs another top tier side ( Suns). The Wolves also have the extra motivation in  revenge mode on board for a 134-124 loss at Phoenix back on Jan 28th. Note: MINNESOTA is 17-4 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

MINNESOTA is 11-0 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS  in March games this season.

MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS ( in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. MINNESOTA is 23-9 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 50% or better  of their shots are 4-24 ATS/SU  L/26 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover