The Charlotte Hornets  come in to this  back-to-back situation vs the visiting  San Antonio Spurs in a letdown situation after an emotional and physical grueling 100-99 loss last night to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Meanwhile, the Spurs, are off 2 straight days off an will be energized for this tilt. With that said, I'm recommending we back a Spurs side that owns a one-sided season series 40-15 record, including  five of their last six visits to Charlotte.

CHARLOTTE is 21-35 ATS  L/56 versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game.Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.Hornets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Antonio to cover

Toronto had won four in a row until a 41-10 third-quarter meltdown in Madison Square Garden last time out saw them go down to defeat by a 108-100 score. Nothing surprises me in the NBA anymore, and even consistent sides like the Raptors fall into these types of lapses. Today, however, I expect Canada's only NBA team to come back looking for redemption vs a Indiana side they matchup very well against. I know Indiana has won four in a row and surprised a couple of teams as underdogs, but tonight, they won't sneak up on anyone, and will have the full attention of their dangerous hosts.

Toronto has  won nine of the last 11 meetings after taking two of three last season.Raptors are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Indiana.

INDIANA is 1-12 ATS  L/13 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog .INDIANA is 9-22 ATS  L/31 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Indiana - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 6-26 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against  81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams like Toronto - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog are 26-6 ATS L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

The Lakers (8-10) enter into this tilt vs Sacramento off their second straight win. Last night  Los Angeles posted a 103-94 home victory over the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday in a come from behind effort and very much look to be the superior team entering this tilt. Last night they controlled the boards , with a  54-39 rebounding advantage, and are currently ranked 4th in the NBA . thanks to those efforts the Lakers defensive rating, has them ranked 4th as well , as their top tier abilities fly under the radar of most pundits. Meanwhile, the Kings do not rebound well as is evident by giving up 7.8 more per game than their opponents, for last place in the  NBA. With Sacramento also expected to play its third straight game without second-leading scorer Buddy Hield (11.6 points per game), they are at a disadvantage tonight from multiple perspectives including their ability to outscore an opponent behind a lowly 93.2 points per game which is the worst  output in the NBA.

SACRAMENTO is 1-8 ATS  L/9 vs lower tier  defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season (this is mostly because of their won lack of scoring power)

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Lakers - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 71-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on the Lakers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Bulls and Jazz enter this game both struggling. Both are desperate for wins, and both I expect will play hard tonight. The Jazz have dropped eight of their past 10 games, including a 107-86 road loss against the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday and without top tier center Rudy Gobert look like a key component has their usually well disciplined team  in disarray . Meanwhile, visiting  Chicago is 0-2 on a four-game trip after losing  by a 103-94 count  to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. The Bulls threw away a 19-point second-half lead against the Lakers, which was embarrassing for them. Like the call from the French revolution, which said " Heads Will roll".  That's exactly the situation now in Bulls land, and this group of players need to stand up and get some respect for themselves immediately .  These are professionals that   know that this will have an adverse financial  effect on their careers going forward and how they are looked as players if they don't bounce  back and make amends for that ugly 2nd half effort last night. The Bulls won both of last season's meetings and have prevailed in three straight meetings and are my pick to cover here.

Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Jazz are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Road underdogs like Chicago- off 2 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 67-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

 
The San Antonio Spurs play consistent basketball which is evident by a 11-6 record despite missing   All-Star forward Kawhi Leonard and veteran  point guard Tony Parker. However, tonight on the road vs New Orleans I'm betting they will suffer a set back, vs an opponent that has some very talented players  in their lineup , namely the  super star duo Davis and Cousins. ( Cousins seems to elevate his games vs top tier teams). Note: Cousins was ejected last time out, because of what looked like he the and elbow)  HC Gentry said it was a bad call, and now this talented player, despite of being extremely moody will have a chip on his shoulder entering this tilt and be ready and motivated  to show case his talent and  ego vs a big time opponent on his own home floor.

New Orleans owns a 4-0 ATS  l/4 mark at home  in this series. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS L/5 road games.Home team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Spurs have failed to cover 9 of the L/12 meetings in this series.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 29-4 SU for a 88% SU conversion rate over the L/5 seasons.

Play on New Orleans Pelicans  to cover

This is a tilt of 2 fairly evenly matched teams, with home court advantage worth 3 points according to my own cross reference power rankings. Thus in a game I have pegged at close to one possession or 2 possession game, the Bulls  have an edge based on the numbers being offered by the sportsbooks both in Vegas and off shore. I will not be surprised at all if the Bulls pull of the SU upset here vs a Lakers team that should be on tired legs as they prepare to play their 8th game in 13 days.

LA LAKERS are 9-20 ATS  L/29 when playing 8 or more games in 14 days. LAKERS are 6-21 ATS  L/27 after playing 2 consecutive home games.CHICAGO is 15-4 ATS L/19  in road games after a game where they attempted 100 or more shots.

NBA teams like Chicago  have done well from a SU perspective vs NBA Home teams vs. the money line like the LAKERS- off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team winning SU 21 of the L/35 times for a 60% conversion rate dating back 5 seasons.

NBA Home favorites like the Lakers - after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. 61-111 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of more than 64% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Portland Blazers go against a reeling Memphis Grizzlies  team that is playing with out point guard Mike Conely  and on a current four game losing streak. Without Conely on the floor the team just doesn't seem to have consistent rhythm , and once again look like fade material in this spot. The Memphis D has also broken down and has allowed 100 or more points in eight of its past nine games. The Grizzlies went 1-7 in those games.  It's also interesting to note that despite of appearances of a Grizzlies side that can supposedly play uptempo basketball as well as defense, the numbers and data don;t support their prowess, as they rank 29th in the league in pace  and 25th in offensive production. With that said, I'm fading them tonight and keeping a eye on them until they can right their sinking ship.

MEMPHIS is 4-16 ATS  L/20  in home games off a home loss .

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line like PORTLAND  - after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are  106-25 SU during the L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tyronn Lue's Cavaliers are starting to jell, as  they are currently on a 4 game win streak. The victories have not been over powering, but they are getting the job done, behind a veteran crew that prefers a methodical game plan rather than a fast paced run and gun style game. After their recent come from behind  victory vs the LA Clippers, key veteran Dwayne Wade said, QUOTE:"We're one of the oldest teams in the league. We're not built for all of this," Wade said. "We're built for when the game slows down -- and late in games, the game slows down, and that's kind of when we're at our best." END QUOTE. Tonight against a Motown group on tired legs as they play back to back after playing last night, I'm betting the tempo will be to the Cavaliers liking and give them a much needed edge. Detroit won a close grueling tilt last night, 100-97 score at Minnesota. Note: NBA  teams where the line is +3 to -3 like DETROIT- off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

DETROIT is 10-22 ATS  L/32 when the line is +3 to -3 .

CLEVELAND is 13-4 ATS L/17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.DETROIT is 18-33 ATS  L/51 after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Two franchises the Bulls and the Suns are going through  rebuilding programs  will meet today in Arizona.The Suns enter of a win vs the  Lakers for the first time in three meetings and the Bulls took down Charlotte to end  a five-game losing streak. When it comes to a direct cross reference player vs player and systems check, my own data suggests the Bulls are the superior team , which gives us value taking the points here in this spot.

Phoenix is ranked dead last  in defense in the league, allowing 116.6 ppg with a SRs -9.77 . The Bulls rank 11th overall in Defense, with a SRS -8.24.  Note:SRS Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Suns are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.Road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.Bulls are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Phoenix.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the SUNS - off an upset win as a road underdog, with a losing record 44-78 ATS for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Trail Blazers enter into this game in cohesive form and were held to a season-low scoring output in an 86-82 loss to the Sacramento Kings on Friday night. Actually the Kings matchup well vs Portland and once again look like they will give problems to the Blazers inconsistent offense.The Trail Blazers have been held below 100 in five straight games and are averaging 94.8 points in that stretch. I know the Kings don't inspire bettors but, from a point spread perspective matchup well vs the host team, and are my recommended side here this evening.

Trail Blazers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific.Trail Blazers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points like Portland  - after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less against opponent after scoring 90 points or less. are 75-126 ATS L/21 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Sacramento to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Boston Celtics,  are off a top tier win over the reigning NBA champion Golden St Warriors, and tonight put their 14-game winning streak on the line when they travel to play an Atlanta Hawks .

Atlanta  a team in  rebuilding mode, came out fired up last time out on Wednesday and beat a sleepy looking Kings team in conclusive fashion. The Hawks really exerted a lot of energy in that tilt, and might not have the electricity needed to put forth another strong effort here vs a over powering side.  After shooting 63 percent, in that above mentioned win, a reversion to the norm against a tremendous defensive team must be expected. I'm betting as this game progresses, the Celtics will pull away for a comfortable victory.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Celtics - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 33-8 ATS dating  back 21 seasons for a  81 % conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

The Denver Nuggets are playing with confidence right now and are  5-1 on their recent homestand.  Their winning attitude was dealt a blow last time out, against the Portland Blazers, on the road , but they are more than capable of picking themselves up and get back to business here tonight in the high altitudes of the Mile High City where they own a strong home court advantage. Note: DENVER is 18-8 ATS  L/26 off a road loss. Meanwhile, the Pelicans despite of having offensive juggernauts Davis and Cousins on the floor continue to play lazy defense,  are allowing their opposition  to shooting 42 percent from long range over the last five games and New Orleans has allowed 16 3-pointers in three of the past four games. Those are ugly numbers, and here in the thin air of Denver, I;m betting their defensive acumen will be tested once again as will their lagging conditioning and two way transitional play.

Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Southwest.

With Three days off and the expected  return of guard Gary Harris  Im betting helps propel the Nuggets   against the New Orleans Pelicans and get us to promise land. Lay the points.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Thunder bring three-game win streak to San Antonio and are showing some signs of life of late, and look like their finally starting to jell, with Carmelo Anthony and Paul George still getting acclimated to playing with former MVP Russell Westbrook . Spurs reserve guard Manu Ginobili said of the Thunder. "When you make such big changes and you put together so many alpha players, it takes a little bit of time." END QUOTE. Tonight against the banged up Spurs, who are without either star forward Kawhi Leonard or point guard Tony Parker, the Spurs are a patch work side, and are vulnerable to being taken down even here on their own home floor. Last time out the Spurs lost  98-86 to the Wolves, and looked a little awkward in the loss, something I'm not used to seeing from Popovich and company. Tonight I'm fading them here at home as it looks at the moment the key losses and injuries are finally catching up with them. 

NBA team vs the money line like the THUNDER - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 44-10 for a 82% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Miami (6-8) travels to D.C.  to play Friday night's rematch against the Washington Wizards (9-5) . This the second of back to back games vs each other which I'm betting favors the visitors covering. The Wizards were admittedly the better of the teams on Wednesday night when they played, but what I noticed was Washington's ugly  perimeter defense, that  saw the  Heat make 13 3-pointers -- four more than Washington -- and shot 43.3 percent from beyond the arc.  The Wizards weakness is not finding ways to stop Wall or Beal , but instead consistently convert from downtown on  treys. Something I'm betting the heat can do again, and get us the cover. The Wizards despite of their talented offense, are lazy in the rebound department, as was also evident in the Heat's 15-8 advantage on second-chance points. Center Hassan Whiteside, who had 14 points and a game-high 21 rebounds is key here tonight, and now after getting acclimated to what the Wizards bring to the floor I expect Miami to be much better here in the 2nd go around.

WASHINGTON is 5-16 ATS L/21  in home games off a road win .

MIAMI is 10-0 ATS  L/10 in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, which has just happened.

NBA team like Washington - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are just 4-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 88% for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 1 unit reg selection

Portland  is coming off its most complete performance of the season in a 99-82 beat down  of Northwest Division rival Denver on Monday and the team finally looks like its ready for a run. Tonight hey face a improved Orlando side,  that according to my cross reference power rankings the Blazers matchup very well against. This is a Portland team that has proven it can score in bunches, and is now working hard on having an equally effective defense. Veteran forward Ed Davis see light at the end of the tunnel..QUOTE: "If you hold a team under 90, you're going to win," he said. "Even though our record is not what we want it to be, I feel like if we're defending every game, it's going to turn around eventually. END QUOTE: I agree with his assessments and very much like their chances to cover tonight. I know Orlando has played decent ball of late, but continued  success from a ATS perspective has been daunting for this franchise in the past,  as is evident by a  2-11 ATS  L/10 run after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread losing SU by more than 17 ppg.

ORLANDO has covered only 5 of their L/22 in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with the average score clicking in at \Opponent 110.5 Orlando 98.4.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

The Charlotte Hornets expect forward Nic Batum to make his season debut Wednesday night when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers which will help them a lot. Tonight against a Cleveland team that used a lot of energy and emotion to erase a late DD deficit to beat the NY Knicks (104-101) on Monday night an emotional letdown scenario is also a major possibility. Coach Lue said previous to that game  that his super star and leader behind the late flurry LeBron James is out of shape.QUOTE: "He has to get in shape," Lue insisted. "He missed the whole training camp, that's the reason why." END QUOTE: He played 38 min in the above mentioned game and looked exhausted at the end, and that hangover could easily rear its ugly head in this spot.

Cavaliers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS  as a favorite this season.CHARLOTTE is 11-2 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season .CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS  L/41 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Cleveland - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 18-47 ATS L/63 dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 1 unit reg selection

After sweeping a five-game home stand and flying to No. 1 on the Central Division charts , the upward trending Detroit Pistons take their winning ways on the road Wednesday night when they go head to head against the Milwaukee Bucks at the Bradley Center. Meanwhile, the Bucks have also played well since Bledsoe arrived from the Suns, and while a lot is being made of his prescience by the media, I can see his effectiveness fading as the Bucks are due for a letdown effort after 3 straight wins. Note: MILWAUKEE is 3-13 ATS  L/16  in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games .

DETROIT is 21-8 ATS L/29 vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents. Bucks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 1 unit reg selection

Toronto  recorded a franchise-record 45-point second quarter in its 129-113 road win at Houston on Tuesday. The Raptors are a streaky team, and when their on fire , you better not get in their way. Tonight I'm recommending we ride this run away train, and expect similar fireworks vs a deficient New Orleans D, that is ranked 21st in the league allowing 107 ppg.  with an SRS of -0.46. The Raptors have won 13 of their last 16 against the Pelicans, including five straight and get the nod tonight to get us the cover as road dogs.

NEW ORLEANS is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 16 or more  turnovers/game.
TORONTO is 15-3 ATS L/18 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread .

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 1 unit reg selection

Bulls HC Hoiberg was quoted as saying "I am seeing a little lack of confidence right now, but we've got to find a way to fix that," Hoiberg said, according to the Chicago Tribune."When I look at the overall body of work -- going back to the summer and September when everybody was back and (in) training camp -- we were very competitive. We were playing at a very high level getting into our preseason. Guys were rising up with confidence, making shots."When we don't shoot the ball well right now, we're not bringing the energy we need on the other end of the floor. So it's about building that confidence back up."  END QUOTE: Hoiberg has made some changes for tonight that should ignite his slumping team.  Point guard Kris Dunn will get firs t start of the season, and Denzel Valentine may get the start over Paul Zipser at the three spot. The Thunder are expecting to be without starter without center Steve Adams a more integral part of this team than many might think.

Chicago has won their L/2 meeting here in Oklahoma city!

CHICAGO is 29-12 ATS  L/41 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game.

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points like Chicago- revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 35-13 ATS for a 73% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

Nothing comes easy for Atlanta and trying to get their first home win of the season against the visiting Sacramento Kings will also not come easily according to my own projections. Both teams have ugly records with the Kings sporting a 3-10 mark while the Hawks own a ugly 2-12 record. I expect both these teams look at this as a winnable game and both will play hard, which makes getting the points a viable betting option here tonight.

ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS  in home games after a non-conference game .Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.Hawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play on Sacramento to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Wizards and the Heat prepare to play back to back home and way game against each other over the next few of days. Tonight they will play in Miami.The Heat have looked good in their recent road trip out west where  they beat the Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz. I myself like very much the way this group plays together and  expect an upward trajectory from them going forward as long as they can stay healthy. I base this projection, on Miami's defense which has  improved significantly  of late, as they rank third in the Eastern Conference in points allowed (103.1 per game) which gives them an edge vs a Wizards side that have the No. 1 offense in the East (111.4 points per game). The Wizards Achilles Heel  is their defense, which ranks only 10th in the conference at 105.9 points per game. In the end I'm betting home court advantage, deeper/  stronger bench,  out does a Washington  bench that has struggled this season.

MIAMI is 19-9 ATS  L/28 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots and 23-10 ATS  L/33 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 assists/game or more. Wizards are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Wizards are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Washington - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are just 20-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 1 unit reg selection  

These are two teams trending in the opposite direction. San Antonio (8-5) despite of being short handed has found ways to win while, the Mavericks (2-12) find ways to lose mostly because of third quarter lapses, which surround around key players like Nowitzki  Smith,  and Barnes who have had shooting slumps at inopportune times. It's not like the Mavs have been completely futile, as they have stayed close against upper echelon sides this season, and upset Washington last week. Overall they must  not be underestimated as home  underdogs and I'm backing them in this spot.

 Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

NB Favorites like San Antonio - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5%  or more), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (-5.5 reb/game or less) are 42-87 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavs to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Bucks are still getting  acclimated to having newly acquired Eric Bledsoe in the lineup. Coach Jason Kidd moved the veteran into the starting lineup, and saw immediate results, beating San Antonio and the LA Lakers. They will benefit from this top tier scorer against certain teams, but against a physical side like the Grizzlies, I'm betting on a reversal in their fortunes tonight. According to  my own cross reference players/team ratings we have value with the Grizzlies vs this type of team that can both run and gun and be inside/out side shit busters.

Grizzlies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

MILWAUKEE is 6-21 ATS  L/28  in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games.MEMPHIS is 19-9 ATS L/28 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points .

NBA team like the Bucks - after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, first half of the season are 27-56 ATS L/5 seasons for a goa against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 1 unit reg selection

Cleveland has revenge in mind for a loss to the Knicks on their own home court back on Nov 29, by a 114-95 count as 10.5 point favs. Recently James has made some some comments in the media about the Knicks bad choices in the draft , and it looks very much like James has a chip on his shoulder heading into this contest. Needless to say, its never a good thing for opposing sides, when the world best hoops players is in a foul mood. With that said, I expect LeBron and company to come out here like its a play off game ,and give us one of their better performances of the season in this spot on their way to a road cover.

Cavaliers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Cavaliers have covered 4 of their L/5 in NYC.

Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Cleveland  - revenging a loss vs opponent, with a losing record are a long term winning proposition as is evident by a 112-66 ATS mark dating back 21 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Oklahoma City finally notched a win last time out vs the LA Clippers. Prior to that the team did not look cohesive, and lost four straight meetings. Now the lines-makers are making them 12 plus point favorites, vs a Dallas team that despite of a negative W/L SU record have looked much more competitive of late. That was evident when the Mavs picked up their first road win this week of the season against Washington before falling 111-104 to Cleveland on Saturday. With that said, I recommend we take the points. Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Mavericks are 21-9-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings in Oklahoma City. 

Play on Dallas to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Indiana Pacers are coming off one of the best defensive performances of the season as they try to forge a new image for themselves . The Pacers (6-7) snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Chicago 105-87 Friday night. Tonight against the explosive Rockets I'm betting on more conservative disciplined ball that focuses on slowing down a tired Houston team playing on back to back nights after beating Memphis at home on Saturday evening. It must also be noted that in Thursday nights win vs Cleveland the Rockets looked fatigued towards the end, so pulling out an extra gear last night, than getting on  a plane here , I'm betting finally catches up to them in this spot.

INDIANA is 8-0 ATS  L/8  in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games.

Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 Rockets  - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 36-71 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 1 unit reg selection

 The short handed Boston Celtics are in deep trouble  today vs the visiting Toronto Raptors. In the Celtics last game a close win 90-87 vs Charlotte Kyrie Irving took a smash to the  mouth from teammate Aron Baynes, leaving the game with a facial fracture and leaving the Celtics without all three of their new star laden group of Three. I know the Celtics have won 11 straight,, but I'm betting that current run ends today in the TD Center vs  a side that matches up well against them 

The Raptors who were 3-1 overall against the Celtics last season now have an edge. Toronto has covered 7 of the L/8 meetings in this series.

TORONTO is 13-4 ATS  L/17 vs. division opponents and  is 14-2 ATS  L/16 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread.BOSTON is 1-11 ATS  L/12 in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games  outscored during that period by an average of 3.5 ppg.

NBA Home underdogs like the Celtics  - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 16-42 ATS L/58 for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line like the Celtics  - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams ( 102 PPG or more ), after a win by 6 points or less are 11-52 \L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

Play on the Raptors to cover

Houston is off a grueling game with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday night . The Cavs started slowly but  meant business in that last tilt,  and came back with a late surge to make it a game. The  Rockets despite of looking fatigued  dug deep and held off James and company for a 117-114 win. Now in a letdown spot and still a little tired, I'm betting on them coming back down to earth here vs a under rated opponent the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies (7-4) already own a pair of victories over Houston this season,  and have proven they can temper the offensive explosiveness of the Rockets. This Grizz team  can not only play a solid and physical brand of  D, but has now implemented a faster more tenacious offensive pace, and are very dangerous to say the least.

HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS  L/25 in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent.

HOUSTON is 8-18 ATS  L/26  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record and is 18-31 ATS  L/51 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis HC Fizdale is 19-8 ATS L/27 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 1 unit reg selection

Washington despite of coming off a win vs the LA Lakers last time out has not inspired me to this point in their campaign,  and especially here as DD favorites. The Wizards recently  allowed 130 and 122 points in losses last week and have blown several double-digit leads this season and their body of work is of the sub par type. But here we are being asked to lay 11 or more points to back them. I know Atlanta has been a less than impressive side this season. However, with that said, they have also shown some life of late in a DD upset win vs Cleveland on the road and have covered three straight ATS and  must not be underestimated in their ability to repeat the feat again vs a side that has allowed  an average of more than 114 ppg at home this season.

ATLANTA is 9-0 ATS  L/9  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game. Wizards are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.Wizards are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play on Atlanta to cover  1 unit reg selection

San Antonio, despite playing without  key cogs Leonard and Parker because of  injuries, and a slew of walking wounded,  have won three consecutive games after losing four in a row. Meanwhile, Milwaukee enters into this game in the  Alamo City  after a hard fought controversial 124-119 loss at Cleveland on Tuesday that saw the refs penalize the Bucks twice as much as the Cavs. That set off Trevor Kidd the HC of the Bucks , as he went into a tirade about the refereeing which cost him $15000.00  fine. This Bucks team is reeling, with 4 consecutive losses but I'm betting Kidds verbal explosion,  the addition of newly acquired Eric Bledsoe will motivate this team to be very competitive in this spot. QUOTE: "He's a great player, and he's a great guy, too," Bucks star Antetokounmpo said of Bledsoe. "I'm looking forward to meeting him in San Antonio. He's going to help the team, and he's going to make the game easier for everybody."END QUOTE

 Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.

MILWAUKEE is 14-4 ATS L/18 off 2 or more consecutive road losses and a long term  37-19 ATS L/56 off 3 or more consecutive road losses

NBA team San Antonio  - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, in November games are 12-33ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Two teams dealing with new faces in their roster after off season changes are currently struggling to find any rhythm. The Clippers have lost 3 straight and 5 of their L/6, while the Thunder have lost 4 straight, as the talented Carmelo Anthony brings his winning ways (PUN) over to Oklahoma City from the Knicks. All joking aside and watching the Thunder on numerous occasions this season, I have come to the conclusion the new additions  George and Anthony have caused a regression in the cohesiveness of the team. Whether this is something that will continue in the long run is unclear, but for now this Thunder teams a mess, and tonight against another team desperate for a victory I'm betting we have a situation that favors the underdog getting points.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-33 ATS  L/51  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game.Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Underdog is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Oklahoma City Thunder  are still trying to find chemistry and symbiosis  with the group of superstars and  their backups on the  bench . It's a talented group , with a lot of big egos ,  and lately their being trashed by the media ,  and people close to the team who are getting tired of some of their ugly effortless losses as was the case against a Sacramento Kings team they should beat .  That was the Thunders third straight loss and their most humiliating. Big ego stars like this don't take kindly to being embarrassed and I'm betting the Thunder stand tall here in the high altitudes of Denver tonight as redemption will be the name of the game. QUOTE : Westbrook a perennial star with the Thunder said "We will be better because I will be better," Westbrook told reporters after the loss in Sacramento. "I'm not worried. I love nights like this. It does nothing but bring you closer as a unit and as brothers. I'm encouraged by the group of guys we have in that room." END QUOTE:

OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-4 ATS  L/19 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games and is 13-3 ATS    in road games off 2 or more consecutive road losses.

Any team vs the money line like Oklahoma City - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 23-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the THUNDER - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 69-31 ATS dating back 21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover  1 unit reg selection

No matter how inconsistent the Cavaliers have been to this point in the season, it can't be argued that this is not a talented group, and when LeBron James is on his game and motivated,  this Cavaliers  team can beat any pro hoops team in the world including tonight's top tier competition the Houston Rockets . Dwayne Wade came out previous to their recent win vs Milwaukee and spoke harshly about the effort being exhibited by the starting 5. Now feeling like they could eliminate some of the negative vibes around the team , with a top tier effort here tonight I expect we will see the Cavaliers at their best. I know Houston has won three straight SU/ATS and look to be hitting their stride, but I'm betting Cleveland matches their intensity and breaks up their hosts  momentum.

HOUSTON is 9-22 ATS  L/31  in home games in non-conference games .HOUSTON is 18-30 ATS  L/48 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

  NBA team like Houston - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, in November games are 10-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors. HOUSTON is 2-12 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tonight I'm betting the  Los Angeles Clippers will  turn around a recent nose dive when they face the San Antonio Spurs for the first time this season on Tuesday night at the AT&T Center.The Clippers have lost 4 of their L/5 after starting their season at 4-0 and   looked asleep at the  proverbial wheel  last time out in a  104-101 home loss to Miami on Sunday. The Clippers had a chance to win late, but missed two ugly FTs towards the end and a go ahead basket after that. Now  dealing with their frustrations, I expect this Clippers group to be ready to get back on the winning track, and more importantly get us the cover against a aging and short handed Spurs side, that has had some struggles early on this season despite of a current 2 game win streak which includes a victory vs a lower tier Suns team in their last effort.

The Clippers matchup well vs San Antonio and  won three of the four meetings with the Spurs last season, and they have taken six of their last nine against San Antonio.

NBA teams vs the money line like the Clippers - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 23-5 SU for a 82% conversion rate over the L/5 seasons. Despite of this being a valid opportunity for a outright upset I prefer and recommend we take the insurance with taking the points being offered.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Cavaliers looked like a team destined for greater things when this season began, winning their first two games including a  116-97 victory vs todays opponent the Bucks  in Milwaukee . Since than James and company have made excuses for their cohesiveness and lazy play, with James saying on a couple of occasions that the team looked winded and tired , which he said was the case in a outright DD fav loss to lowly Atlanta last time out.  Right now the Cavs just don't have that winning fire, and chemistry seems a bit off ,   because of the use of multiple lineups, as the worlds greatest hoops player single handily James trys to carry  this underperforming team on his aging back. Tonight I'm betting after their last embarrassing loss that I expect a complete team effort here from the Cavs  vs a Bucks team that according to my own cross reference power rankings they matchup up well against. QUOTE: "I think guys are embarrassed, and we should be embarrassed of how we're getting beat," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue said after his team trailed by as many as 16 points against Atlanta. "Teams that we're playing, having guys out, key guys out and (us) still not being able to win. We all have to continue to keep searching and continue to keep fighting and continue to play hard." END QUOTE Pros don't like to be called out, and I expect they will respond.

I know the Bucks are well rested but they have come out looking rusty in the past after a lengthy lay off and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

James is third in the NBA in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and he is shooting a career-high 60.8 percent from the field.

Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee- after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are just 4-22 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.

Play on Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Mavericks 1-10 on the season are on a horrendous run to begin their campaign, and once again look to be at a disadvantage from a SU perspective , but according to my own numbers are viable underdogs getting 10 points here . Last season, Dallas swept the two-game series from their hosts tonight  Washington  and overall the franchise has won 13 of the teams' past 14 meetings  in this series and I'm betting the desperate Mavs will give the Wizards all they can handle again in this spot. Meanwhile, the Wizards biggest issue to this point in the season, is a lazy defense , and with key cog John Wall at less than 100%, if he plays at all ,those issues will  be compounded and once again make them shaky DD favs. Also with almost three days rest, the Mavericks will have fresh enough legs to make the Wizards work for anything they take from them tonight.

Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

NBA Home favorites like Washington - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better), average rebounding team ( plus 3 reb / differential game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 reb/game or less) are 14-49 ATS the L/21 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Suns won the first matchup in this series in New York last Tuesday, recovering from an eight-point deficit with under seven minutes remaining for their first road victory of the season. I do not really think they were the better of both teams in that game and were fortunate to get the victory.

Now the Nets will try to even this series, and get some momentum back after losing four in a row.

Considering how exhausted the Suns are after a whirlwind 5 game road trip that culminated in a loss at San Antonio yesterday, I'm betting they won't be quite ready to answer the bell here tonight. Asked if road fatigue might have had something to do with his teams tired looking effort in the 2nd half last night,  Suns HC Triano said. QUOTE: : "Probably, a little bit. But that's one of the things we have to learn to do. This league doesn't care that it is a long road trip. No excuses. You have to be able to play every night." END QUOTE. Ready or not here come a desperate Nets team that looks at this as a winnable game and on very fresh legs as they have not played since Friday.

BROOKLYN is 27-12 ATS  L/39 in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. Brooklyn has won their L/2 visits to Phoenix.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line like the Suns - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 1-28 L/29 dating back 5 seasons. ( The Suns have lost two straight by 13 and 17 points which qualifies them as a play against team in this spot on a short line)

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Brooklyn - after 3 or more consecutive losses, first half of the season are 115-70 for a 62% long term conversion rate for bettors dating back 21 seasons.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Cavaliers on the back of LeBron James snapped a 4 game losing streak last time out. The superstar notched 57 points in the 130-122 victory against  the small ball Wizards. But now in an emotional letdown state I expect there will a drop off  for James and for  the continued inconsistencies and flow of his team mates to once again rear its ugly head. It's still early, but there looks to be chemistry issues with the Cavaliers. Now because of the Cavaliers explosion last time out and the fact they are facing a team in the midst of a 8 game losing streak, the linesmakers have attached a slightly bloated line to this tilt, giving us value with the downtrodden desperate and nothing to lose underdog.

Note:( This is the biggest underdog line of the season attached  to the Hawks, they only once have lost by more than 11 points and that was to Houston last time out by a 119-104 count. )

The Cavs also have a way of playing down to their competition, and are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Cavaliers are also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Atlanta is a different looking team with new faces, but last year they took three of the four meetings last season, including both games at Cleveland. With that said,   I'm betting the Hawks coaching staff have a good blue print on how to deal with the Cavaliers, and that they stay a lot closer than the lines-makers are estimating.

CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite this season.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points like Atlanta - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a a struggling  defensive team ( 102 or more PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more are29-7 ATS for a 80% conversion rate for bettors for a 81% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The question here today in this matchup of two teams supposedly operating a the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum is whether the line attached to this game matches up to some in-depth scrutiny. The guys behind the counter in Vegas and the off shore sports book industry can be quite brilliant and use a combination of scientific stats research and physiological war fare to determine the placing of certain lines, and its not always public or smart money that dictates a line move or opening number. Contrary to main stream belief there is a lot more to this game than just wanting an even amount of bets on both sides of the wager, like some pundits spout off about. With that in mind I consider Dallas to be a solid wagering option here getting points despite of what things look like on paper and in the standings. Minnesota despite of being upgraded in the off season and currently playing above .500 ball early on this season, are being over rated in my opinion because of their deficient defense ( 113.1 ppg and 114.3 ppg allowed at home) ranking them 28th out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Wolves also own a negative SRS of -1.66 ranking 21st in the league: ie Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule.The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of a ugly 1-9 record are according to my own numbers closer to -9.5 dogs, here and the added digits according to my own projections based on the Mavs equally ugly -8.60 SRS (27th) and better overall D ranked 20 in the league are indicators for me of a value line. Hey guys , nothing is a sure bet , but every edge we can get against the books is important, and todays underdog recommendation backing Dallas is a viable investment option considering the implications associated with our ability to uncover small imperfections in a line for continued consistent profits over the long run!

MINNESOTA is 3-13 ATS L/16 versus poor shooting teams - making 43% or less of their shots .MINNESOTA is 8-19 ATS L/27 in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins .Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.


NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points like Dallas - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a lower tier defensive team 102 or more PPG) are 27-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Celtics are showing their depth and talent level after starting the season 0-2 without their newly acquired star Hayward. Since Hayward was lost for the season do to injury this team has rallied to win six straight entering the matchup with their hosts the  Thunder.   Boston is tied with the Orlando Magic for the best record in the NBA with a 6-2 record and must not be disrespected here as underdogs. Tonight I'm betting it will be the Celtics highly rated defense , that has held opponents to an average of 93.8 points per game to be the catalyst behind a cover against what has sometimes been an explosive yet inconsistent Thunder offense. Yes, I know the Thunder are also suddenly playing some strong D this season, but I'm still not sold on their stopping abilities against this kind of side, and I'm betting if they can come out of this with a victory it won't come easily. After three straight grueling road games, the Thunder now come home, and a lot of times teams take time to acclimated to being at home and can start slowly, which I feel will be one of their issues tonight.

BOSTON is 30-16 ATS  L/46 in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season  with the average margin win or loss SU being decided by 1.8 ppg. BOSTON is 33-18 ATS  L/51  in road games and  is 13-4 ATS L/17 in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5.

Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and have covered 7 straight road games dating back to last season.Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Thunder are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Home teams like the Thunder - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights are just 11-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. (Anomaly or nor still a useful trend)

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Jazz struggled with their offense out of the gate as they got acclimated to some new faces , and I  was concerned with their cohesiveness, but now I'm beginning to see progress, behind Ricky Rubio this season. He is a career 37.8 percent shooter, but he is shooting at a 43.7 percent clip through the first eight games of the 2016-17 season and fits in very well with this group in Utah. The Jazz (5-3) have won three straight and are averaging 104 points during that run with  Rubio  averaging 25.3 points on 48.9 percent shooting during the winning streak. I'm expecting more of that same flow tonight, as well as staunch Jazz defense to stand tall vs a Toronto side that according to my early season power rankings is  being over rated, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they showed their true abilities last time out allowing Denver to put 129 points on the board.. Another thing I noticed about the Raptors is that the presence of big man Jonas Valanciunas. seems to slow this built for speed team down , which is something I'm keeping in eye on for future bets on the Raptors. Tonight Utah has the edge as short home chalk.

UTAH is a long term good bet as hosts as their  171-127 ATS record as a home favorite of 6 points or less would indicate.

Raptors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.Jazz are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection

The offensive explosive Portland  Trail Blazers who  are averaging 107.6 points per game while presenting a consistent threat from the perimeter are a team that must be feared when getting points because of their abilities to keep games close and or just completely blow out their opponents. Yes, their has been some inconsistencies with their scoring, as was the case vs the raptors last time out only scoring 85 points,  but I am expecting at some point this season, that they will ramp things up and go on a big run, maybe even starting tonight against Utah. Meanwhile, their opponents biggest problem is getting their offense in gear, which just won't be an easy feat with the type of personnel they have on the floor as they rely on their D, to keep them moving in a positive direction.  As stated The Jazz D, is staunch but the offense has scored 97 or less points in 5 of their 7 games and against this type of team, their in trouble according to my cross reference matchup stats.

UTAH is 1-9 ATS  L/10 in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread .PORTLAND is 14-2 ATS  L/16 after a combined score of 185 points or less ( The Blazers lost to Toronto by a 99-85 count )UTAH is 7-18 ATS  L/25 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) .

NBA team vs the money line like Portland  - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are 27-8 SU for a 77% conversion rate L/21 seasons.

Play on the Portland Trail Blazers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Raptors  are looking good and coming off an impressive 99-85 win in Portland on Monday night and once again look like viable betting  options in this spot vs a Denver team coming home off a grueling 4 game eastern road trip, and  now on tired  legs will now take time to acclimated to being back home. That's not a good omen for their chances against a staunch Raptors D, that is playing very physical disciplined  ball at the moment.

 Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games and get the nod here.

NBA Favorites like Denver  - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are just 47 -93 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 1 unit reg selection

DeMarcus Cousins after being named the player of the week , came out in his last game asleep at the proverbial wheel something that is not uncommon for the highly sensitive and inconsistent super star. But I'm betting he will be up for this game tonight, which makes the Pelicans a good bet here.

New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry was understandably upset by his team's lack of effort against Orlando in a DD loss as 8 point favs at home UOTE: .
"We sucked," he said. "I wish there was another way to put it. We didn't close out shooters, they drove the ball any time they wanted to. It was lack of effort. We have to establish consistency. We're not going to be a good team until every night we know what we're going to get." END QUOTE:


New Orleans went 3-0 against Minnesota last year, and I'm betting this version matches up well against a Wolves team that has just played some very grueling close games, winning 2 in a row by 3 points vs Ok City, and Miami, and could easily be in a let down state here tonight.

MINNESOTA is 11-24 ATS L/35 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) .

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like New Orleans - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less is 46-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Oklahoma City Thunder top star Westbrook looks like he is coming to life and taking over the lead of his team, as was evident last time out  as he had 12 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists for his third triple-double of the season in a 101-69 smash down of the Bulls on Saturday in Chicago. Yes, there is other top tier talent on the Thunder, but its become obvious early on this season, that this team is at its optimal best when he  leads the way. QUOTE: "That's special. He's a special player," said Paul George, Westbrook's new teammate. "He's solidifying himself early as a Hall of Famer." END QUOTE . I'm betting well rested Westbrook shows his best stuff again tonight, against a short handed Milwaukee group playing without Center Greg Monroe.

MILWAUKEE is 3-12 ATS  L/15  in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games  and 6-20 ATS  26  in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games.Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Northwest.Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

NBA  Favorites like Oklahoma City - after allowing 75 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 27-7 ATS for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Nets after looking good in the early going of their current campaign, have suddenly began a quick decent, and  showed little energy in a blowout road loss Friday to the New York Knicks and then got absolutely creamed in the third quarter Sunday by the Denver Nuggets on their way to a loss. Some of the blame goes, to D'Angelo Russell  who  has been hampered with a nagging knee injury, and he did not play well in the last two games. Things don't look to get better here, as Russell is still not 100% and now the Nets have to deal with the loss,  of Quincy Acy, who leads the team at 52.4 percent from 3-point range as he nurses a injury for the second straight tilt.  Also  add to that two way specialist DeMarre Carroll is also questionable for the Nets  and you have a short handed group that will once again have problems finding their mojo. I know their opponents Phoenix may not instill confidence in bettors, but  the Suns are looking much better since new HC Jay Triano took over and have won 2 of their L/3 and more importantly have covered all three times.

Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. Western Conference.Nets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 1 unit reg selection

Pelicans, enter this home game having won three of their past four, and will now go against a under rated Orlando Magic team that has own 4 of their 6 games this season . The Pelicans and Magic according to my own power rankings matchup very well against each other. I know the Pelicans looked really good last time out in a upset DD win vs the Cleveland Cavs , but now in an emotional let downs state I'm betting their susceptible here to being upset themselves. Note: NEW ORLEANS is 2-13 ATS  L/15 off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog.

Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Pelicans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Underdog is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Orlando has won 3 of the L/4 meeting sin this series straight up.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

The Celtics enter this game  having won four in a row winning by a  96-90 count vs Miami last time out. The Boston D, has looked good but the offense has been choppy, and I'm betting they struggle tonight against a Spurs side that can play physical defensive hoops. Note:  BOSTON is 3-16 ATS  L/19 after 4 or more consecutive wins.

Meanwhile, the Spurs,  are off two straight losses including a 97-94 loss to the Indiana Pacers last time out. Both teams might seem like their headed in the opposite direction, but the Spurs despite of injuries to K.Leonard and T. Parker are still a veteran laden team with a lot of talent and must not disrespected, especially with one of the best coaches in the NBA on the sidelines ( Popovich).

San Antonio has won 11 straight meetings since its last loss to the Celtics in 2011, with six of those  victories having come at TD Garden.

BOSTON is 22-42 ATS L/64 in home games against Southwest division opponents.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Spurs - good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games, after 1 or more consecutive losses are 41-14 ATS L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 1 unit reg selection

NY Knicks behind Guard Tim Hardaway Jr.  who had 34 points, and Kristaps Porzingis who finished  with 31 points and 12 rebounds looked explosive in a win vs the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out. This is in my opinion a better team than they were last year with Carmelo Anthony in the lineup. There are less distractions and the pundits don't expect much from them. Which is sometimes a good thing. Tonight  in top form against a Denver Nuggets team I'm betting they matchup well  getting points here on their own home floor.

DENVER is 9-22 ATS L/31 off a road win.
Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 1 unit reg selection

After watching the Nets first few games its become painfully obvious that their defensive abilities are atrocious , as is their rebounding work ethic, as was the case last time out vs the NY Knicks losing by a 107- 86 count while being out rebounded by a 55-34 edge on the glass, including 19-4 on the offensive side . Thus far on the season , the Nets have allowed an average of 117.3 ppg, and I'm betting  their in big trouble today, thanks to horrid lack of two way basketball.

HC Malone of Denver in his L/12 games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game  has seen the average margin of victory for his team come by 7.5 ppg. In game expected to be high scoring  game, a 5 point margin of victory is not out of the question, even for a road team laying lumber.

BROOKLYN in their L/19 against Northwest division opponents  have lost by an average of 9.6 ppg.
NBA Road favorites like Denver - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

After watching the Nets first few games its become painfully obvious that their defensive abilities are atrocious , as is their rebounding work ethic, as was the case last time out vs the NY Knicks losing by a 107- 86 count while being out rebounded by a 55-34 edge on the glass, including 19-4 on the offensive side . Thus far on the season , the Nets have allowed an average of 117.3 ppg, and I'm betting  their in big trouble today, thanks to horrid lack of two way basketball.

HC Malone of Denver in his L/12 games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game  has seen the average margin of victory for his team come by 7.5 ppg. In game expected to be high scoring  game, a 5 point margin of victory is not out of the question, even for a road team laying lumber.

BROOKLYN in their L/19 against Northwest division opponents  have lost by an average of 9.6 ppg.

NBA Road favorites like Denver - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these  teams Philadelphia and Dallas have just one win on the season entering Saturday night's game at the American Airlines Center. The Sixers are off blowing a late lead to Houston and losing by a 105-104 count on  a buzzer beater. It's never easy for a young group like this to shake off the effects of that type of defeat, and could easily effect their confidence in this game. Add to that the 76ers are expected to play without the services of one their most talented young stars, No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, and things are not looking all that bright. Also , add to that the fact Philly's  Coach Brown who continues to have talented guys like Jahlil Okafor on the bench for long stretches, because the  kid can't get his head on straight . Instead he is playing the less talented backup Amir Johnson.  Quote:I'm playing Amir ahead of him and that's just the situation," Brown said, according to the Inquirer. "(Okafor) comes in and his head is good, his spirit is good and he and I talk all the time. But that is the bottom line: He is not in the rotation." END QUOTE:  . This kind of drama , makes for a bad energy in the Sixers dressing room which translates into sub par on court performances. I don't want to get down on this very good Sixers side, because its early in the season, but things could unravel here quickly. As far as tonight is concerned, I like a hard working Dallas team , behind Harrison Barnes and rookie-of-the-year candidate Dennis Smith Jr., and the veteran presence  of Dirk Nowitzki and other veterans to get us to the promised land and deliver to us a winning ticket.

76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.PHILADELPHIA is 8-19 ATS  L/27 vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents . Dallas has won 11 straight meetings here at home in this series.

NBA Favorites like Philadelphia  - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. are 16-47 ATS for 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Minnesota is a fine young team that matchs up well vs the Oklahoma City Thunder as was the case when they beat the Thunder right in their own back yard by a 115-113 count. I know the Thunder are loaded full of talent, but I've been watching them closely and their just isn't something right with this team and their overall chemistry as was evident in recent loss to Utah and during extended stretches during their first 4 games . Despite of being 2-2 on the season, the Thunder have me starting to doubt their cohesiveness. My main concern is about Carmelo Anthony , who has shown over the years to be brilliantly talented, but for some reason his happy go lucky schoolyard attitude on the court which lacks the eye of the Tigers mindset,   has only translated into a bevy of sub par winning out puts for his previous team the Knicks.  Has he brought this losing mindset to the Thunder, and is it effecting the highly sensitive Russell Westbrook? Maybe Maybe not  It's still early so , I''ll give the Thunder the benefit of the doubt. However, as far as going against the them tonight, I think this fast improving talented Minnesota group, with or without ( probable?) Jimmy Butler in the lineup on their own home court are more than capable of covering for us here.

Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.Thunder are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Minnesota.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line like Oklahoma City- poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of  45.5% or more are 17-33 SU L/5 seasons for a  go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover 1 unit reg selection

The top producing offense and the worst offensive output teams in the NBA go head to head on Friday night  at Madison Square Garden when the suddenly explosive retooled  Brooklyn Nets visit the rebuilding New York Knicks. The Nets are  coming off a 112-107 win over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, and are in top form with momentum on their sides but still being made underdogs here on the early line. Brooklyn is leading  the NBA in offensive production at 121.2 points per game, and are even outscoring the  Golden State Warriors. Meanwhile, the  NYK is exhibiting very little chemistry thus far in the early going of this season  as their 0-3 start would indicate , New York has 84- and 89-point outputs in offense in two of their 3 games , and rank 30th in points per game at 93.3. Needless to say from a current power ranking and matchup perspective  this line is tainted and must be taken advantage of. ( I have also taken into consideration DAngelo Russell being out tonight because of injury.)While anything is possible in NBA , and turnarounds and crashes constantly happen, it still makes sense that the superior side ( Nets) are worth a investment outlay as 2 to 2.5 point dogs here, and are actually viable SU money-line bets as well. However, as far as we are concerned getting points with insurance here is the more viable option. I know the Nets D, seem unstable  at the moment, but the Knicks don't look built to take advantage of those deficiencies as is evident  by receiving  just  25 points per game from the starting three-man backcourt of point guard Ramon Sessions and shooting guards Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee . 

NBA team vs the money line like NYK- off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 5-20 SU L/5 seasons for a go  against conversion rate of 80% for bettors.

NEW YORK is 6-20 ATS  L/26 and 0-9 ATS L/9 in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5  and is 4-13 ATS  L/17  overall vs. division opponents.Knicks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss dating back to last season.

Favorites like the Knicks - lower tier team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 15-47 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Pelicans have lost three of their first four, as the highly talented DeMarcus Cousins spreads his nasty attitude into the mindset of yet another team he has joined. This kid has such great skill sets,  that's it really shame that  his attitude and locker room presence does not make for a winning attitude. Tonight Cousins and the visiting Pelicans will face a team he once played for. None of Cousins' six  seasons in Sacramento saw his team win more than 33 games, and his 36-point, 13-rebound night for New Orleans in a 103-93 loss at Portland on Tuesday looked  like the games he has played in the NBA. The self centered super star just isn't a winner and I have no problem recommending we wager against his team the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. I know that the Kings lost last time out to lowly Phoenix by 117-115 count, but they have a good history of bouncing back under these circumstances as SACRAMENTO is 8-0 ATS L/8 off a loss against a division rival .

HC Gentry of New Orleans is 6-17 ATS  L/23 versus poor offensive teams - scoring  98 or less  points/game .

From a long term NBA historical standpoint -Home teams vs. the money line like the Kings - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a lower  defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 129-58 SU for a 69% conversion rate dating back 21 seasons.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Memphis Grizzlies suffered their first loss of the  season last night to Dallas.  Now in a early season back to back... home and home series they will go at FedEx Forum on Thursday night to try to reap revenge, but I'm betting that won't come without a fight .

The Mavs were in control from the start and never surrendered the lead in the second half of lat night triumph and actually matchup well vs the Grizzlies despite of what the pundits might think It must also be noted , that Mavericks rookie point guard Dennis Smith Jr.  has been in top form for the Mavs and last night finished with a team-high 19 points. Smith has led or tied for team-high scoring honors in two of his three games and is very underrated and must respected. He gives this retooling Mavs side a lot more balance than the causal on lookers might believe, making them viable opponents for all comers despite of some lackluster early season results.

MEMPHIS is 6-17 ATS  L/23 after a division game .DALLAS is 31-15 ATS L/46 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games .

Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Memphis.Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Mavericks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Hawks are in the midst of a season-opening, five-game trip, which concludes with Thursday's visit to Chicago and are exhausted as this juncture and could easily fold as this game goes deeper into the 2nd half. I know Chicago is banged up and still winless , but they're playing at home, and are desperate. Tonight I'm betting they take advantage of a road weary group and notch their first win of the season and get us the cover as well.

Injury update: Hawks Dennis Schroder is doubtful Thursday vs. Chicago ( Ankle )

Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Underdogs like the Hawks - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games, after 2 or more consecutive losses are 7-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Sixers,  host the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night and are off, beating the Detroit Pistons 97-86 on Monday. This is a fine young Sixer's team, but still are not ready for a wide awake veteran laden Houston team that won't be caught napping here as they come off a loss last time out vs  Memphis, after falling a sleep at the proverbial wheel with less than 8 minutes left , blowing a DD lead. There have been some shot conversion issues for the Rockets early on this season despite of their 3-1 record, but I'm betting that will be quickly resolved , probably starting tonight vs a side, that I think is over rated defensively and their biggest weakness. I know the Rocket's are playing with out Chris Paul tonight, but they still are the overall superior team with a lot more experience in a game that the linesmakers are expecting to be close.

HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS  L/23 teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game.HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS  L/18 on the road when the line is +3 to -3 .

NBA Favorites like Hosuton - off a upset loss as a favorite, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 60-31 ATS dating back to 1996 for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

The Timberwolves enter their Tuesday game against the Indiana Pacers with a 2-1 record, thanks in  to a buzzer-beater by Andrew Wiggins on Sunday in a 115-113 victory at Oklahoma City. Now the lines-makers are taking part in what I can best describe as irrational exuberance as they make the Wolves 12 point favorites. Hey this young Minnesota team is talented, but this line is higher than I expected and gives us value according to my own rankings taking points here. I know the Pacers have dropped two straight, but are still more than capable of hanging tough here.Minnesota and Indiana split their two-game series during the 2016-17 season. Both teams won on in the visitors role, with the Timberwolves barely sneaking by with a  115-114 victory on three late free throws in the final seconds. Rinse and repeat scenario in play  , and take the points.

MINNESOTA is 12-23 ATS  L/35 when playing against a team with a losing record.INDIANA is 11-1 ATS  L/11  in road games when playing with 2 days rest .MINNESOTA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 in home games after scoring 115 points or more.

NBA Favorites like Minn- bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 1 unit reg selection

It's still very early in the season, but the Nets off season changes look very much like they have added some positive energy/flow/chemistry into the lineup, something that was not there over the last few campaigns. This season Brooklyn looks like they matchup well against tonight's opponent Orlando as they beat them in the first meeting,  putting a  126-point points on the board against the Magic and than followed that up with a  116-104 home win over the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday.Brooklyn held Atlanta to 34 percent shooting from the field, its best since Kenny Atkinson became the head coach last season. That to me is a be positive sign moving forward. Meanwhile, Orlando despite of a big upset win vs Cleveland last time out, still don't inspire me, and I'm betting they have an emotional letdown experience here tonight and fail to cover vs a side that actually matches up very well against them. Magic HC Vogel is 10-23 ATS  L/33 after a game where they covered the spread.

ORLANDO is 8-18 ATS  L/26 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game .

NBA Favorites like Orlando - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-44 ATS as favs dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 1 unit reg selection

It's never easy playing the Mile High City for visiting teams, because of the thin air, and I'm betting the Wizards travelling from East to West will find it difficult again tonight vs a Denver team that is playing physical/disciplined  defensive ball early on this season, as was evident  when they held Sacramento to 36.5 percent shooting in a lopsided 96-79 victory last time out. Yes, we all know how talented Washington is, but they have shown a tendency of throwing in clunkers in the past, and dating back to last season have failed to cover in their L/ 5 road games.

Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. DENVER is 18-6 ATS L/24 after 2 or more consecutive unders .

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

The San Antonio Spurs and the Toronto Raptors,   both unbeaten in their early-season schedules  go head to head tonight when they do battle on Monday at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. A lot has been made of the Spurs missing, , star forward Kawhi Leonard and point guard Tony Parker because of injuries, but this is a deep team, with a lot of talent, and have proven they can find multiple ways to beat opponents, including a top tier D,  which proved its metal in a  87-77 win on the road  on Saturday vs the Chicago Bulls. On offense the Spurs , can beat you with one of the NBAs most explosive and talented players , LaMarcus Aldridge, who  scored 28 points and had 10 rebounds to lead San Antonio over the Bulls. Like I said, the Spurs have just to many weapons, and are very diverse, compared to a one way run and gun Raptors side that is easily read by a coach like Popovich. I know the Raptors have  looked good in wins vs Chicago and Philadelphia by a combined 51 points in their first two games, but tonight their playing what I'm betting is a superior team without a key cog , big man center Jonas Valanciunas who was injured last time out and expected to miss this tilt.

Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio

San Antonio beat the Raptors in both meetings last season and have a three-game winning streak against Toronto. The Spurs lead the all-time series  17-4  SU against the Raptors at home and another victory and cover is around the corner.

NBA Underdogs like the Raptors - marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record are 19-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Dallas Mavericks, losers of their first three games and completely humiliated in Houston on Saturday night will now be playing with some pride and a huge chip on their shoulders in this spot, and should see Dennis Smith Jr. back and Devin Harris back after missing time early in the season  . Meanwhile, Golden State I'm betting will be over looking a group that they probably don't respect a great deal. I know the Warriors are a great team, but they have had a recent lackluster ATS history vs losing teams as this trend indicates, especially on the road.

Warriors dating back to last season are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Dallas HC Carlisle is 26-8 ATS  after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half which happened in their last trip to the hardwood a 107-91 beatdown vs the Rockets in Houston.

Play on Dallas to cover 1 unit reg selection

Detroit enters tis tilt with momentum on their sides  as they come off a 111-107 road win vs the New York Knicks on Saturday. The Pistons rallied from a 21-point deficit, outscoring the Knicks 60-43 in the second half. Now they go against a young talented Philadelphia Sixer's group who still cannot find a way to consistently notch victories, losing three straight times to start their campaign, including Saturdays lopsided 128-94 loss to the Raptors. There is a lot of talent in the 76ers lineup, but playing as a group and showing chemistry/flow at the moment seems to be a problem, as their star center Joel Embiid ,  comes in and out of the lineup , because of his need to rest his surgically repaired knee. Tonight I'm betting the Sixers having more problems ,  vs a Motown side that has won and covered 6 of the L/7 meetings in this series.

76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

DETROIT is 12-2 ATS  L/14 in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5, with the average margin victory of the scores coming by 10.5 ppg.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last night in Utah Russell Westbrook looked surprisingly below average for the Oklahoma City Thunder in a loss. His energy levels as well as his teammates were very low in the team looked completely out of sync and tired looking. Tonight at home in a matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves I expect he and his team will rebound in a big way. After posting a triple-double in a season-opening victory vs the NY Knicks, Westbrook recorded just six points on 2-of-11 shooting in 36 minutes of shabby play. This type of low level of play by the MVP was only the third time in his 10-year career that he has been held to six or less points while playing at least 30 minutes. Something that stood out to me, is that Westbrook is shooting 40.4 percent from 3-point range in 31 career games against the Timberwolves, which is his highest mark against all but two other NBA sides, which gives me credence in my belief he will bounce back in a big way and play hard with Carmelo Anthony and P George tonight at home in front of their own fans. I know the Wolves are a fine young team, but this is a beatable spread for the Oklahoma City Thunder backers .Meanwhile, the Timberwolves won their home opener the other night in a hard fought battle vs Utah, but it must be noted that from a recent performance betting standpoint that not a good thing as the Timberwolves are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.Timberwolves are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 ATS L/35 as a home favorite and is 14-4 ATS L/18 in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.


NBA Home favorites like Oklahoma City - marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents are 25-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah is a fine team that I highly respect, but after playing last night in a physically grueling affair in Minnesota losing by 3 points and covering, I just don't believe they have enough left in the tank to deal with what is now In my humble opinion one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are they potent with their attack, they are showing early signs of being equally capable of over powering their  opponents on the defensive end. With that said, I usually rarely lay lumber with a road team these circumstances at this juncture of my wagering campaign warrant such a bet and recommendation to my clients.

Quote: "By playing great defense, especially this early in the season where probably most teams are trying to find their way, it gives you at least a little bit of room where if you don't have a great offensive night or are trying to figure it out offensively, you can really fall back to your defense," Thunder coach Billy Donovan told reporters after the game.

Note: Rodney Hood was carried off the floor by his teammates after suffering an apparent lower-leg injury during the fourth quarter last night vs Minny which puts the Jazz at a distinct disadvantage in this tilt.

UTAH is 7-20 ATS  L/27 off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival and OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-10 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points  with the average victory coming by 7.6 ppg.

Ok City has won 7 of the L/8 meetings and 3 of the L/4 here in Utah and enter this game in much better shape roster wise than they have in the past.

NBA Favorites like Oklahoma City - in a game involving two teams who had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season are 23-3 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors and also NBA Favorites like Oklahoma City - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games, vs. division opponents are 27-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Milwaukee Bucks opened the season with games against Boston and Cleveland, and are pretty acclimated to playing some very tough competition. The Bucks looked pretty ordinary against a Cleveland team that looked to be on a mission last night, losing by a DD, count at home,  but I'm still a big believer in this team. I know their opposition tonight, the Portland Trailblazers have looked explosive so far this season, in their first two games , but this will be the Blazers second consecutive road game in a back to back situation. Yes, I do know that the Bucks are also playing back to back games, but playing them while sleeping at home in your own bed, and playing back to backs , after taking a  red eye flight are two completely different scenarios as far as how rested your team will be. With that said, I expect the Bucks come out in good form tonight and get us the win and cover.

Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee and the Bucks have won and covered the most two recent meetings here in Milwaukee.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Blazers - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are just 36-70 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 66% for bettors.

NBA Favorites like Milwaukee - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 ATS L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Philadelphia 76ers  off a loss last night will face   the Toronto Raptors this Saturday night.The 76ers,  lost 3 of 4 to the Raptors last season, and have lost  15 of their past 16 games against Toronto, including nine in a row at Air Canada Centre. That and the fact that their over hyped young star is out tonight and expected to rest (Joel Embiid) ,has pushed this line to it's outer limits.  With that said, and in contrarian fashion,  I'm betting we have value taking a talented Sixers group  , who despite of playing last night,   will not be all that tired because of their young legs , and a Raptors side that is no longer as deep as they once were.  With that said, I'm recommending we take the points here with a Philly side that is 7-2 ATS L/9 with no rest vs a Raptors side, that has failed to 6 of their 8 at home.

PHILADELPHIA is 31-18 ATS  L/49 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and have covered 19 of their 28 after a loss of 10 points or less which happened last night in a loss 102-92 loss to the Celtics.

76ers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Atlantic.76ers are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on the Phuladelphia 76ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah took out Denver in their opener by a 106-96 count as 2.5 point favorites, while the Timberwolves lost  on the road as an over estimated -1 chalk at the road vs San Antonio by a 107-99 count. I once again believe both teams are being undervalued by the linesmakers, and won't be surprised if the Jazz win this game outright making getting points golden in my betting opinion. There are new  talented faces in the Wolves dressing room,  ie ( Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, Crawford )and Utah is now a retooled team playing without the services of Gordon Hayward who left via free agency. What remains the same for the Jazz that makes them tough to play against, is a  staunch D that led the NBA in scoring defense last season (96.8 points per game) as was evident in the  opener, as they allowed the Nuggets to 13 fourth-quarter points and forcing 22 turnovers overall. Meanwhile, on the flipside, Minnesota looks to be packed with offensive talent, but here against this type of team that tampers with a teams flow, I'm betting their in trouble , as they continue to build chemistry and try gel as a team. 

MINNESOTA is 13-24 ATS  L/35 ATS as a favorite .The visiting team has won 10 of the past 15 meetings. Dating back to last season  the Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Favorites like Minnesota  - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 1 unit reg selection

Orlando looked good in beating Miami in their opener by a 116-109 count as 3.5 point dogs. What impressed me is their ability to stay calm and get the job done despite of a late Heat comeback attempt/surge.   Meanwhile, Brooklyn looked defensively deficient in their opening loss to the Indiana Pacers as 3.5 dogs by a 140-131 deficit. I'm betting their defensive break down until addressed will end up being their demise again tonight. Add to that  they lost  Jeremy Lin  for the season with a ruptured patella tendon in their opener and you have a  bad news Nets team that just can't get over the hump no matter how many changes they made In the off season.

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Magic have won six of the last seven meetings, but lost a  121-111 decision at Brooklyn last season. I'm betting they come back here with an edge and get us a cover.

Play on Orlando to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these teams looked offensively explosive in their first games of the season, both sides getting wins . The Blazers scored the biggest margin of victory in NBA history, beating Phoenix 124-76. That was even without  McCollum serving a one-game suspension for coming off the bench during an altercation in a preseason game, as reserve guard Pat Connaughton replaced him admirably and stopped and popped for  a career-high 24 points.  With that said,  one of these teams stood to me as being very smooth and polished , in all aspects of the game, and that was the Portland Blazers. I'm not getting completely down on the Pacers as they were impressive offensively in the opener as well with a 140-131 triumph over the Brooklyn Nets, but their defense was horrendous to say the least and soft to be kind.  It's still early and the competition limited, but from a  head to head to matchup ranking system I use the Blazers have the edge here, even though they are on the road.

The Blazers are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 meetings in this series . Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Portland  - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 35-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA Road favorites vs. the money line like Portland - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 23-2 SU 92% conversion rate over the L/5 seasons.

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The Milwaukee Bucks opened the season in top form, as they defeated last season's top Eastern Conference playoff seed on the road in Boston, despite of not playing a complete game and going cold in the second half. I really like the way this Bucks team has come together over the last few seasons, and  I won't be surprised if they knock off the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers (8 new players in the lineup) in the Bradley Center on Friday night for their home opener. I actually have the Bucks listed very high on my own power rankings list, and feel that they matchup very well against the Cavaliers current roster.

CLEVELAND is 19-31 ATS  L/50 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 13-26 ATS  L/39 vs. division opponents. Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the  Cavaliers  - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 34-61 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors. ( Cleveland beat the Celtics 102-99 in their opener, the same teams the Bucks beat in their opener)

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The new-look Boston Celtics will be primed and motivated to notch their first victory of the season when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers in their home opener on Friday night. The Celtics not only lost their two opening games,  but lost Gordon Hayward to a nasty looking leg injury. Now their suddenly being looked at as non contenders which for now at least is a over reaction considering how early in the season it is. I'm betting Boston finds a way to get wins and will remain competitive especially against young teams like the Sixers who haven't proven anything yet. Meanwhile, the Sixer's  their opponents despite of some promise  remain a inconsistent component,  after beginning the season with a 120-115 loss in Washington on Wednesday night.

BOSTON is 30-18 ATS  L/48  road games .76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games dating back to last season. Celtics have won 7 of the L/8 meetings in this series.

teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Celtics - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after 2 or more consecutive losses are 28-8 ATS over the L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for betting backers.

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Pacific Division inter city rivals go head to head tonight  in the City of Angels. the Clippers have dominated this series  winning 14 of the last 15 meetings, including three of four last season and I'm betting these new look teams will continue a recent tradition of Clipper wins. The Clippers do have a new look, with Chris Paul gone and are now  depending on quality new additions like Patrick Beverley,  the flashy Milos Teodosic, and Danilo Gallinari and the usually solid presence of Blake Griffin & the explosive DeAndre Jordon  to continue the franchises winning ways , via a faster mode of attack that just won't stop til it drops. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a team that depends way to much on  Lonzo and Ingram to carry them and talented new acquisition Brooks Lopez that just does not know how to consistently win as was the case in Brooklyn . Its just to early in these guys careers to be put in a spot to lead a young team. With that said,  I'm willing to make a bet that the Lakers are over matched in this spot. 

Lakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Pacific.

 Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Phoenix Suns enter the 2017-18 season  as a team I have had cautiously circled this  year    a a side that could surprise for at least postseason contention. This is a very talented young group with a lot of potential. Meanwhile, Portland continues to be a team, that despite of looking good at the end of last season, after starting slowly , still remains inconsistent despite of a lot of promise. Tonight ,Portland will play the opener without McCollum, who was suspended for the first game of the regular season after running off  the bench  during an altercation between teammate Caleb Swanigan and Suns center Alex Len in a preseason game on Oct. 11 in Phoenix. Needless to say there is some bad blood between these sides at the moment, and that will put the young and hungry Suns on their own home court in  the mood to run and play hard. When a bunch of 20 something year olds with talent, are in the mood to run, you better look out. I know the Blazers are still the superior side, overall, but tonight I'm betting they are going to be the lesser of these foes in the opener against the spread.

Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Phoenix is 4-3 ATS L/7 in this series.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line like the Blazers - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 8-25 SU for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

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The spot light is now on a new era in Houston with super star guards James Harden and Chris Paul roaming the floor together in their debut campaign  . The Rockets are a deep team in a chase to end the supremacy of the Warriors in the West and upset them last night in a grueling raod affair by a 122-121 count as 9.5 point dogs.  Now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state I'm betting a more temperate effort from the Rockets here tonight.. Meanwhile, the Kings are young  but very talented   , including top pick De'Aaron Fox, a guard out of Kentucky. Despite of their lack of experience this team can play and I have they pegged in my early season power rankings as a possible play off contender. Look for them to be competitive here in their adrenalin filled opener .

HOUSTON is 15-27 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points dating back to last season and  8-19 ATS L/27 off a road win.

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The Spurs are now a different team without the services of star forward Kawhi Leonard and veteran star point guard Tony Parker who are both out with injuries, However despite of this I'm betting the Spurs are still a team that must be respected , thanks to a top tier defense, and pass-first offensive attack and one of the NBAs top HCs Gregg Popovich.San Antonio after winning 61 games last season and recording its best defensive rating (103.5) since 2011 and a  111.1 offensive rating will still be a force to reckoned with and the pundits maybe should not get ahead of themselves by automatically assuming that a up-trending Minnesota Wolves team can just march into San Antonio and pull off a upset. Yes, agreed , the Spurs  could still not be at that the top of their game just yet, with new bodies acclimating to an old system,  but I'm betting they are still capable of a win here on opening night especially with the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge on the floor and  the new young blood of  Joffrey Lauvergne, Rudy Gay, Derrick White, and Brandon Paul more than ready to compete. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of their quality roster are still a side, that  has recorded  eight consecutive losing seasons and has missed the playoffs for 13 straight years and should still be looked at as wait see type side.

The Spurs have taken the last 11 tilts ion this series from Minnesota, including seven in a row at the AT&T Center and one more is on tonight's agenda.

Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line like San Antonio - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a bad team from last year (25% to 40%) are 35-4 SU dating back 21 seasons for a 90% conversion rate.

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Memphis enters this season   led by one of the NBA's top inside/outside combinations in point guard Mike Conley and center Marc Gasol and are still a team that must be respected despite of changing up their style of play to a quicker up-tempo game plan as was the case in a preseason game last week against tonight's opposition, the New Orleans Pelicans in a lopsided 142-101 beat down. Tonight I'm betting the Grizzlies dominate again on a short line against a team that depends far to much on the duo of Cousins and Davis. In my opinion. Cousins despite of his extreme talent  never fits into a dressing room, and is once again a guy that does not fit into a team concept and this always will put his team in the position of lacking chemistry. As you can see I'm not a big fan of Alvin Gentry's Pelicans because of this and feel their at a disadvantage here on the road vs a very hard working team. Note: Pelicans were just  11-14 SU  after trading for Cousins last season.

Pelicans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Favorites like Memphis - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games, vs. division opponents are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for their betting backers.

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The Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets start their season opener Wednesday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. One was a play off team from last season, and one well was not. Despite of that the team (Nets) that was not is still being given respect here by the lines-makers making them only 5 point dogs vs Indiana on the opening line and still showing value at 3.5. Vegas has a lot of smart minds on the other side of the counter, and their correct I'm betting their upgraded assessments of the Brooklyn Nets a team that I expect will go over their projected win total for this season, thanks in part to some very good off season moves that brought the ultra talented  and  Russell over from the Lakers and added the service of defensive specialist DeMarre Carroll and Alan Crabbe. Meanwhile, the Pacers  are a team with a different flavor this season as they traded George to Oklahoma City for guard Victor Oladipo and forward Domantas Sabonis. Indiana will also have to start the season without Glenn Robinson III, who had surgery on his left ankle , which will put them at a disadvantage.

NBA  team vs the money line like Indiana - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 8+ spread covers in last 10 games, team that had a losing record last season are 41-12 SU for a 775 conversion rate over the L/21 season for bettors.

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NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - GSW Leads 3-1


Ok, I was wrong about game 4, The Warriors came out to calmly, while the Cavaliers came out playing like they were on mission and their proverbial scalps were on fire, and broke the all time first half play off scoring record with 86 points . It was truly a game that was straight out of a Hollywood script. Explosive scoring , fouls galore, and lots of nasty verbal and physical exchanges that will have the Warriors very very angry here in Game 5 and ready to reap redemption. The Cavaliers point explosion in game 4 will also I'm betting revert back to their mean average , and a natural letdown scenario should be on the agenda tonight. Also the Warriors Stephen Curry, who scored 14 on 4-of-13 shooting will be very primed to bounce back in this spot.

Coach Steve Kerr said his players aren't worried about the past. but in a subliminal way Im sure their aware i it and being the top tier professionals they are, I''m sure the Warriors will find their groove on their way to a win and cover in game 5 in front of their home town fans.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS L/33 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 ATS L/7 in home games against Central division opponents this season, winning SU by an average of 26.8 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 16-4 ATS L/20 in home games after allowing 130 points or more.

NBA Underdogs like Cleveland vs the money line- off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are just 14-55 ATS in their followup game. Also NBA teams like the Warriors - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 45-18 ATS .

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NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0

 The Cleveland Cavaliers after playing their hearts out,  and still losing  game 3 of this series, are now both emotionally and physically drained for game 4 of this series. Both of the Cavs big time stars Irving and James, played alot of minutes, and when, Lue tried to rest James, you could see the swing on the pulse of the game in the Warriors favor. .What also became interesting in the third quarter of the last game, was how the Cavs slowed things down instead of trying to run and gun with the Warriors , and had good results for a while doing this , winning the third quarter 33-22.    But Both Irving and James  are tenaciously attacking one on one at that point and also playing from 45 to 55 minutes overall, which means both could easily run out of gas at some point here in game 4, if they slow down for ball control again. This  I'm betting will be disasterous for the Cavs in this game vs a very under rated Dubs D, (ranked 2nd per 100 possessions).

I know alot has been said, about a Cavaliers comeback after last years 3-1 deficit ended in a surprising 7 game championship run for them, but now things are very different. For one Durant is now a Dub, and Curry is 100% healthy, and the Warriors as a whole are hell bent on not giving the Cavaliers any squeeze room to make a come back and will be all out primed to end it here in Ohio tonight. The linesmakers are making the Warriors -6 or more favs and I feel their being generous and I'm going to recommend we lay the points.

GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 ATS L/11 when leading in a playoff series this season winning SU by more than 16 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 ATS in road games in all playoff games this season winning sU by ana verage of 14.2 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game and 10-2 ATS   vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season. 

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NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

The Golden State Warriors showed their superiority vs the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first two games of this series, winning both games by double digits. It was the Cavs 22 nd ranked Defensive rating , that continues to be their Achilles heel, as the Warriors 132 point output in game 2 would suggest. Hey, folks,  I'm well aware things can quickly change in NBA play off plays, like they did last year when the Dubs took the first two games of the finals vs the Cavs by a combined 48 points before succumbing in 7 games. But this time around things are different. Like I keep on saying the addition of Durant to the Warriors puts them in a different universe than the rest of NBA, and after last years historic collapse you can bet , that the Warriors will come out here again extremely focused and prepared to play with a proverbial chip on their shoulders. It must also be noted that in last years final series, Curry was less than 100%. Thats not the case this time around.

 What  I'm betting will happen in game 3 , will be that the greatness of super star LeBron James, will not be enough to upend a healthy, very motivated and fresh Warriors team, that looks at a victory here on the road as being a decisive payback blow to Cavs chances of repeating, and their own desire to reign supreme over the basketball universe.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, winning SU by an average of 10 ppg and 26-7 ATS  off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points winning sU by ana verage of 14.2 ppg. 

NBA Favorites like the Warriors - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 56-22 in their followup game for a impressive 72% conversion rate for bettors going back 21 seasons. 

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NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

Game 1 went as expected, by me,  as the Warriors won a 113-91 event, and now with the lines-makers continuing be in a hold pattern concerning the line, barley budging (-7 to -9) I still feel here at home in Oakland that the Dubs are the far superior team, so I will have no problem backing them here tonight,to cover again.

As I said previously, the two best teams according to my power rankings are going head to head for the NBA championship this season. The difference is that the Warriors are in a class of their own, while the Cavaliers are the best of the rest. The last few seasons these teams I thought were fairly evenly matched, but now  with Durant's presence in the Dubs lineup, there's just too much talent for the Cavs to handle. Defense has been issue for the Cavaliers chances at a repeat this season, and  in game one that became evident again. Note: Cavs are ranked 20th in ppg allowed this season, and 21 in defensive rating per 100 possessions (110.3) In this game I'm expecting  , for the Warriors to come out and take advantage of their opponents soft defensive play again via the top offensive attack in the NBA (115.9 ppg), and for their own very under rated D, to stymie LeBron and Company.The Warriors D is ranked 2nd in Defensive rating per 100 possessions.

GOLDEN STATE is 27-16 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season winning SU by an average of 14.4 ppg. CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS  when leading in a playoff series this season winning SU by an average of 18.9 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS  in road games in non-conference games this season losing SU by an average of 9.8 ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Cavaliers - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are just 6-35 ATS L/41 in the followup game.

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Game 1 NBA Finals 

The two best teams according to my power rankings are going head to head for the NBA championship this season. The difference is that the Warriors are in a class of their own, while the Cavaliers are the best of the rest. The last few seasons these teams I thought were fairly evenly matched, but now  with Durant's presence in the Dubs lineup, there's just too much talent for the Cavs to handle. Defense has been issue for the Cavaliers chances at a repeat this season, and I'm expecting for at least game 1 of this series, for the Warriors to come out and take advantage of their opponents soft defensive play. Note: Cavs rank 21st in the league per 100 possessions on defense.  On the other side of the ball the Warriors have shown consistency on D all season long  as is evident by ranking 2nd per 100 possessions and as is usually the case the most amazing offense in the basketball world ranking first in the NBA  (115.9 ppg) and universe as we know it. 

GOLDEN STATE  in 41 games  when playing against a team with a winning record this season, have seen their average margin of victory come by 12.1 ppg. CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS   in road games in non-conference games this season losing SU by an average of 8.8 ppg. 

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Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - CLE Leads 3-1

There is only one way to put this, Boston is banged up and exhausted and  in over their heads  from a talent perspective against the defending champions. Don't get me wrong the Celtics have played valiantly at times, but as has been the case or most of these matchups, the superior team is Cleveland Cavaliers and Im betting they cash on the line and  advance to the finals against the Golden State Warriors after tonight. 

Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston.Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings

NBA Underdogs like the Celtics  - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 17-56 ATS dating back 21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% for bettors. 

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Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - CLE Leads 2-1

After humiliating the Boston Celtics with an explosive  48 minute surge in game 2 of this series, winning by 46 points, as I expected the Cleveland Cavaliers ran out of gas in game 3. The Cavs looked asleep at the proverbial wheel after a  half time DD lead, evaporated into thin air as they lost by a 111-108 count. James was flat, and his team played soft,while  the Celtics played loose and with extreme grit. I'm betting the amount of energy the Celtics exerted in that game to get back some lost respect will effect them tonight against  a now very angry James and company, who went from being  media god, to a public and media battering ram over the last 48 hours. Talk about exact polar opposites and extreme , irrational exuberance after the last two games, and your looking at an illusion, created by the media, and fans who gobble this stuff up . Hey everyone, loves an underdog, and I loved the Celtics effort in game 3 , but they are in over their heads with Isiah Thomas down.  With that said, I expect another turn around zig/zag event and a DD margin of victory for the Cavaliers and subsequent cover in game 4

NBA Road underdogs like the Celtics  - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are just 32-62 for a go against conversion rate of 66% over the L/5 seasons.

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Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - CLE Leads 2-0
The Boston Celtics were humiliated in their last trip to the hardwood in game 2 of this series, by a 130-86 count, one of the worst beat-downs in the history of the NBA play offs. and to add insult to injury they will now be without star Isiah Thomas for the rest of the play offs. With the way the last game played out, and the injury news involving the Celtics, the early betting action from the public and some sharp bettors has now hammered the line to the point where, I feel confident enough, to take the points. Call me crazy, but under circumstances like this , character players like Horford can rally a group to show pride and play hard and physical. , After the humiliation the Celtics suffered last time out, it will be easy for them to come out here and play loose and motivated. After all they have nothing to lose, as they are expected by many to lay down and die. Also after Cleveland came out last time with a gigantic energy surge, I won't be surprised if they have a natural letdown in this spot despite of what coach HC Lue is telling the media. So guys, with that said, lets play the mathematical long term edges of taking DD underdog in NBA play.

Road team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Celtics are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.

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Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

I have no problems reversing my views on certain matchups. This is one series, where I thought the underdog Spurs were capable of hanging with the Warriors. I no longer believe this to be the case, as Golden State, a well rested juggernaut look unstoppable at the moment vs a banged up and tired Spurs team, and despite of a couple days rest are team in over their heads vs a championship calibre opponent. 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-2 ATS L/13 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record winning SU by an average of 8.6 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 ATS  in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season winning su by an average of 13.4 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS  after a huge blowout win by 30 or more this season, winning the follow up by an average of 21.5 ppg.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Spurs - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points 6-34 ATS L/40.

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    Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - CLE Leads 1-0
The Cleveland Cavaliers owned game 1 of their Eastern Conference series with the Boston Celtics. That was the case during the regular season, as the won 4 of 5 meetings, and now I expect nothing to change in game 2. The Cavs are still fresh, after taking out the Raptors easily in their last series, and very dangerous. With a banged Boston squad that just recently finished playing an exhausting 7 game series, against the Wizards and now running on fumes, they look like fade material once again. CLEVELAND is 35-18 ATS L/53 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days dating back to last season, with a combined average win coming by 8.8 ppg. Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston.


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Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

San Antonio knows that defense and physical play will be the key to slowing down the explosive Golden State Warriors. The Spurs behind the 27th ranked pace in the league and 2nd best points against numbers and the best defensive rating are well suited to grind and bang and make life difficult for the Warriors. They proved that in the first half of game 1 of this series, but got caught up trying to run and gun with the Warriors in the 2nd half of that game and finally fell, by a 113-111 count after blowing a DD lead. This time around Im betting on an even more physical defensive effort from the Spurs, and a complete game effort and subseuqent cover.SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 ATS L/8 off a close road loss of 3 points or less, dating back three seasons. NBA Home favorites like the Warriors - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% or better playing a good team (60% to 75%) are just 9-32 ATS dating back 21 seasons.

(Spurs) Leonard injured ruled out of Game 2-  : Spurs are 6-2 ATS without Leonard in the lineup this season.

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Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - SAS Leads 3-2

The Spurs and the Rockets played a hard fought back and fourth affair in the last game of this series, and now in a crucial do or die Game 6 battle, more of the same type of tenacious action must be expected. The Rockets need a win to stay alive, and the Spurs would love nothing more to end it now. With that said,  Im betting on another hard battle with end end result proving getting points to be golden proposition. HC Popovich of the Spurs is a master tactician, that will be ready for the small ball attack here in game 6. I'm also betting he will now key  running the attack through with Aldridge in this tilt, and for the  the Spurs’ big men to finally show up and do some damage. I know the Spurs are banged up, but their are some key guys missing for the Rockets to ie Nene, which has forced D'Antoni to shorten his teams rotiation, which will effect their flow on tired legs here tonight  especially after they went in to OT last time .

NBA teams like the Rockets  - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are just 40-82 ATS L/122 for a go against conversion rate fof 67% for bettors.

HOUSTON is 2-11 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 assists/game or more this season.

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Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Houston came out and pounded the Spurs in game 4 of this series, 125-104 , but it it must be noted, that HOUSTON is just 4-12 ATS  after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.Also after high scoring tilts, the Spurs ,  have played well, both defensively and offensively as they are  8-1 ATS after a combined score of 225 points or more this season winning SU 14.3 ppg and are  14-4 ATS  in home games off a road loss . With that, said look for Popvich and company to bounce back and  come here with all guns blazing and to deliver their backers the cash.

HOUSTON is 6-15 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season. SAN ANTONIO is 22-11 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season, winning SU by an average of 8 ppg this season. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like San Antonio - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival 53-22 ATS for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Rockets - off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 12-35 ATS for 75% conversion rate for bettors.

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Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 2-1

Washington came out firing on all cylinders in game 3 of this series, and smashed the Celtics 116-89. In the previous two games, the Wizards also looked like the superior team for long stretches, before folding, because of shoddy D,. But now  I''m betting that the Wizards have figured their opponents out, and will show their abilities to dominate once again here on their own floor where they have played their best hoops this season.

WASHINGTON is 18-8 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 21-12 ATS  off a home win this season.WASHINGTON is 18-8 ATS  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. Favorite is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings with the home team covering 7 straight times.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The San Antonio Spurs after starting their 2nd round series vs Houston with a loss rebounded last time out, with a 121-96 victroy but suffered a big loss in the process as Star guard Tony Parker was injured and will now miss the rest the play offs. I know the Spurs played 19 games without Parker during the regular season, but regrouping and reforming units in a post seaon atmosphere, wihtout a proven post season performer will effect the teams flow. Meanwhile, Houston last time out, surprisingly struggled in transition against a Spurs defense that wanted to break the Rockets' fast break, flow. But now after seeing what the Spurs did last time out will now be better prepared. It also did not help that thier super star Harden had an off game shooting 3 for 17 and sinking just 13 points. I'm betting he rebounds, along with home team, here on their own home floor and give us a winning ticket.

HOUSTON in 27 games,after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, with the average margin of victory comig by 10 ppg.

Spurs are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.Spurs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.

Play on Houston Rockets to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah lost the first game of this series, by a 106-94 count covering as 13 point underdogs  and did not look out of place . I’m betting on the Jazz to continue to press for physical action, and to make this game a mucky battle , which favors them staying close enough for a cover once again.

UTAH is 75-49 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons

NBA Home favorites like the Warriors - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team ( 75% or better ) playing another quality team (60% to 75%) are just 9-31 ATS  L/21 seasons for a  conversion rate of 78% for go against bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover  1 unit reg selection

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Toronto Raptors take on a Cleveland Cavaliers that they matchup well against. Some teams just seem to play certain teams , very tough, and that’s the situation tonight. In 4 meetings this season, the Raptors are just 1-3 SU , but the three losses all came by 4 points or less, with the lone win coming on the road in convincing fashion (98-83) with a lot of key Cavs resting.  With the Raptors currently in top form after wrapping up their previous series with Milwaukee by winning 3 straight games, I’m betting that their momentum will carry into this game vs a Cavaliers side that may exhibit rust after an extended 7 day lay off after eliminating the Pacers in 4 straight in their opening play off series. CLEVELAND is 12-24 ATS  after 4 or more consecutive wins . TORONTO is 10-1 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season and 13-4 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Two teams that don’t get along very well play each other tonight in the opening game of Eastern Conference semi final  in Boston, as the Celtics host the Wizards. Looking at both teams first round series, it became obvious to me that the Celtics have now rounded into the team that many pundits thought they were, and that is that they are a  contender for the Eastern Conference crown thanks to a D, that is currently ranked  6th in scoring defense, allowing 96.5 points per game,. Boston after starting slowly against the Bulls in their opening round series reeled off 4 straight wins after losing the first two games on their own home floor, and now look to be in top form. Meanwhile, Washington despite of getting by Atlanta to get here in their opening round series, struggled at times against the Hawks, and used their home court advantage to advance by winning 3 games as hosts, but now here on the road in Beantown where they have lost 5 straight and failed to cover all five times I’m betting their at a disadvantage.  in game 1 of this series.  Boston was 30-11 SU in the regular season at home while Washington was a sub par 19-22 SU on the road.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover  1 unit reg selection 

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2

Boston won the last two games here in Chicago in this series, but I'm betting on a big time effort tonight by the Bulls on their own home floor to extend this series to 7 games.The Bulls erased 20-point deficits in Games 3 and 4 before Boston surged ahead to get the wins, but now with adjustments and desperation  I can see the Bulls holding their lead in this game.BOSTON is 2-15 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.CHICAGO is 16-5 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive losses.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Raptors have taken a 3-2 lead in this series after having lost the first game. Considering how schizophrenic both teams have been, in this series, I won't be surprised by a complete reversal tonight, by a desperate Bucks team trying to avoid elimination. The Raptors have never proven they can close a deal easily and nothing changes tonight, especially with super star Kyle Lowry dealing with a back injury.

MILWAUKEE is 8-0 ATS  in home games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 1 unit reg selection

It has become obvious that the Atlanta Hawks match-up well against the Washington wizards, playing them tough in the first two games of this series on the road, and than  taking out the  Wizards by convincing margins in both Game 3 and Game 4. Game 5 is Wednesday in Washington,  and now I'm betting  once again that his meeting will have both these teams interlocked in battle, that will favor the team getting points.Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Wizards are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.

The biggest issues for the Wizards, centers around their downtown shots.  The Wizards during the regular season were a top tier 3-point shooting team  , but right now the Wizards are hitting a playoff-low 29.7 percent after four games and are having difficulties in transition as they were also outscored in fastbreak points in game 4.  What has also become obvious is that Atlanta's coaching staff have done a better job, of preparing for this series, and have put themselves in a good place for an upset going forward, and more importantly as far as we are concerned a cover tonight. Note:  NBA team vs the money line like the  Wizards - as a # 4 seed in the playoffs, are just 19-39 SU L/ 52 games dating back 5 seasons.

Favorites like the Washington - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are just 31-55 ATS over the last 5 years,

  for a go against conversion rate of 61% for bettors.ATLANTA is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 2 consecutive division games over the last couple of  seasons.

Play on Atlanta to cover 1 unit reg selection