Denver enters this game having won 4 straight games and 6 of their L/8 overall.Right now, The Nuggets remain in ninth spot in their post season chase because the Timberwolves own tiebreakers over them. But win the last three games, including the season finale in Minnesota next week? The Nuggets are in the playoffs. With that said, you can bet the Rocky Mountain hoops crew will leave everything on the floor tonight as they cannot afford a loss. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers have lost 3 of their L/4 games and  most probably out of post season contention and also look to be at a disadvantage today, as Danilo Gallinari (hand), Milos Teodosic (foot), Jawun Evans (groin), Avery Bradley (groin) and Patrick Beverley (knee) are all banged-up. I'm betting on the hungrier side with play off aspirations coming out of this with a victory.

DENVER is 38-17 ATS L/54 in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread which happened last time out vs Minnesota..

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) ARE 34-19 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Any team vs the money line (DENVER) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 52-11 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

The NY Knicks have had another below .500 season, but believe it or not they have actually  not been that bad at home overall, going 18-20 SU as hosts . Meanwhile, their guests the Miami Heat have had a decent season, and are play off bound,  but are just 18-22 SU on the road during their campaign, and find themselves more interested in staying healthy than beating up on a downtrodden side.  I know the Knicks have looked lifeless of late and  have lost six of seven,  but I expect them to look for a little bit of redemption after being embarrassed  in their worst offensive output of the season in Tuesday's 97-73 home loss to Orlando.  The Knicks were booed off the court in that above mentioned tilt, and knowing how pros don't like to be embarrassed I expect a little bit of bounce back here against a Miami side that they have revenge for after being thumped by them the last time they played in South Florida a couple of weeks ago. So lets plug our noses, close our eyes and just pull the proverbial trigger on the Knicks to cover vs what should be a disinterested Heat.

MIAMI is 2-11 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more this season.Heat are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. NYK HC Hornacek is 38-20 ATS  in his career after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.

NBA  Underdogs (NEW YORK) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 28-7 ATS L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 28-16 L/21 seasons for a 63% SU conversion rate.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

The Bucks have clinched a play off spot and are feeling pretty good about themselves right now, but can still grab a higher seeding with some late season wins , so a motivated effort should be expected. Meanwhile, the Nets are 28 games under .500 and have nothing left to play for, except a higher lottery pick,  and currently look to be in full tank mode after a lackluster 121-95 loss at Philadelphia on Tuesday where they looked asleep at the proverbial wheel and now should be expected to provide little fight tonight on the road in Wisconsin. The Bucks have had their way with the Nets recently winning both meetings this season by lopsided DD scores, and have garnered 10 straight wins this series, and I'm betting one more victory and cover are on tonight's agenda.

Nets are 7-23-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Favorite is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.

The Nets are 0-12 ATS /SU losing SU by 15.3 ppg  as a road dog off a 10+ loss facing an opponent averaging less than 40 rebounds per game like the Bucks .

NBA team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 10.6 ppg.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Portland Trail Blazers have already clinched  a postseason spot and now staying healthy will be a priority, which will translate into what I'm betting will be a slight lack of motivational effort and  extra drive which will help us cover the number with Dallas this evening. It must be noted that despite of Portland's very explosive March where they went 12-3 SU, they have shown a reversion to the norm,  especially with  their formerly hot down town shooting, and enter this game having cooled down considerably  now converting a  league-worst 27.9 percent over the last six games. Also with road  games coming up against San Antonio and Houston, a look ahead situation is not out of the question for the Blazers, and gives further credence to my home underdog stance this evening.

DALLAS is 29-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. DALLAS is 21-11 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or les turnovers/game this season.DALLAS is 13-4 ATS  L/17  in home games against Northwest division opponents. DALLAS is 24-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.( Portland beat Dallas as road chalk  107-93 back on Jan 26 th)

Play on Dallas to cover

The Warriors remain a little banged up but  most of the their key cogs like Durant, Thompson, Green are expected to play tonight with only Steph Curry on the sidelines. I know the Warriors don't have alot to play for from a standings perspective as  they are guaranteed the No. seed in the West, but cohesiveness now becomes a question mark, because of a late season tumble because of injuries, and lackluster play, and its now imperative they get into a rhythm before the play offs begin. I also know Oklahoma State will be sky high to take down the Warriors tonight, but I'm betting that will not be an easy feat , as the Dubs would love nothing more than to send a message to opponents before the post season arrives.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-17 ATS   revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season( Golden State won the last meeting back on Feb 24,  112-80)  . OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-39 ATS  as a favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-24 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

NBA team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - after scoring 105 points or more in a win over a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 27-5 L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 41-82  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors

The Pistons play off hopes are slim, as they are 5 games behind Milwaukee for the final spot in the East, but they still have not given up the chase for the post season, with six games remaining and have won 4 straight and are  6-1 in its last seven games  and enter this tilt vs Brooklyn with a full head of steam.   Detroit during their current hot run are  averaging 109.1 points, shooting 46.6 percent and getting 49.4 rebounds while limiting their  turnovers ( 11.9 ppg).  I know the Nets are playing decently of late, but my own power rankings and player vs player and system vs system matchups  suggest they do not matchup well vs this type of team and are on tired legs after playing last night and at a dsiadvantage.

Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Nets are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (DETROIT) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 34-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BROOKLYN) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 5-28 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.

Road favorites (DETROIT) - a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team, on Sunday games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover

The  Philadelphia 76ers  enter this game vs their hosts Charlotte  with a full head of steam this  Sunday afternoon. The Sixer's have won 9 in a row  and will be out to  sweep the season series vs a side that they matchup very well against as was evident by winning all 3 previous games this season by double digits. Charlotte has lost 2 straight and failed to cover 3 straight and ar eon tired legs after playing last night , which adds to their fade material status today.

The 76ers outscored the Hornets 102-51 on 3-pointers in the last two meetings, going 34 of 77 from beyond the arc and a repeat performance is a high probability outcome in this spot considering both sides current form.

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. PHILADELPHIA is 25-6 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

CHARLOTTE is 6-25 ATS   versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHARLOTTE is 2-13 ATS  L/15 as a home underdog .

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, playing on back-to-back days are 7-36 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 7.7 ppg.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after successfully covering the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 26-4  L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by more than 11 ppg.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

The defending NBA Champion Golden State Warriors are still a little banged up, and on a current 3 game losing streak. Their not as cohesive as usual, and playing uninspired basketball. Can the Warriors turn the switch and go into over drive. Yes, off course they can, but I'm betting the goal right now is to remain healthy heading towards the play offs and to stave of fatigue. With that said, if the Dubs win tonight, I'm betting  they do it without going into top gear, and for the hardworking young Kings to play this game like its their own version of a championship game, which makes getting points here a viable wagering opportunity.

GOLDEN STATE is 30-42 ATS  in all games this season.SACRAMENTO is 17-7 ATS  L/24 as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points dating back to last season.

Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Warriors are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

Star G John Wall is expected to return to the Washington Wizards today against Charlotte, after a lengthy absence because of  injury . This I'm betting will rejuvenate a sometimes unmotivated group of Wizards. They can clinch a play off spot if they get a win today and also get revenge for a Feb 23rd loss here at home by a ugly 122-105 count. I'm betting the Wizards get their payback.

Charlotte has lost 6 of their L/9 on the road and have failed to cover 20 of their L/34 road games this season.Hornets are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Hornets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

WASHINGTON is 9-0 ATS L/9  in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last few seasons.( lost to the Pistons last time out as 2.5 point road chalk-102-93) CHARLOTTE is 9-22 ATS  as an underdog this season with 7 point deficit over that period.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, second half of the season are 33-4 SU L/5 seasons for a89% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by more than 10.5 ppg.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in March games are 45-2 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors with the average victory coming by 10 ppg.

Play on Washington to cover

Sacramento has been off for a couple days since getting stepped on by Dallas as chalk in their last home tilt on Tuesday . Their coach Dave Joerger  was really peed off after that tilt as his players looked inattentive in that game,  during what has been a bizarre week of riots in Sacramento after another deadly police shooting. The HC appreciates the stance his players have taken to support the protesters, but has reminded his men that they must be professionals. QUOTE: "We respect that, but we've still got to come in, be professionals, and bring the same juice, the same energy every night." END QUOTE:
Tonight I'm expect the Kings to bring some energy to the floor and get us the cover vs a  tired Indiana group playing their 4th game in 6 days and their second in a row on the road after taking out a banged up Golden State side in their last effort (92-81) 

Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference.Kings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in March games are 105-41 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Sacramento Kings to cover

Boston might be banged up but they have proved a resilient bunch and better than the sum of their parts over and over again this season, and must never be underestimated.  QUOTE: The way a team plays as a whole determines its success. You may have the greatest bunch of individual stars in the world, but if they don’t play together, the club won’t be worth a dime.”  Babe Ruth :END QUOTE

Utah beat Boston earlier this season, and short handed or not the Celtics have revenge on board, and a tenacious never say attitude to go along with it and is 14-3 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. BOSTON is 25-11 ATS  in road games this season and have won 6 of their L/7 away from home.

Boston buys into a team concept that's what makes them so good. You might not always see it in the final score, but you can definitely see it on the floor and with their work ethic  game in and game out. Taking point with them, even when their banged up is not reaching and a viable investment opportunity.

BOSTON is 21-12 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record this season. BOSTON is 14-4 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 90-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off 3 or more consecutive road wins 51-20 L/22 seasons for a 73% SU conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston Celtics to cover

Memphis upset Northwest-contending Minnesota 101-93 on the road Monday night and showed some fight despite of their imminent lottery pick situation . With Portland playing the second of back to backs this Wednesday  on tired legs, and most likely over looking  the lowly the Grizzlies another possible upset could be in the cards and more importantly a cover. It must also be noted that after losing 2 consecutive games , Portland has pulled out two back to back wins of less than 5 points , and are less cohesive then they were during a 12 game win streak.

MEMPHIS is 48-29 L/76 ATS   in home games off an upset win as a road underdog.

Injury update. D Lillard is expected to miss this game vs Memphis.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog are 106-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less are 25-10 SU L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. ( Memphis lost both games in this series at home back in November)

Play on Memphis to cover

These teams played last week with the Clippers pulling of the road win, now in the rematch the Bucks will primed to pull off upset in revenge mode. With both teams seeking a play off appearance you can bet this will be a battle, which makes taking points here a viable wagering option.  

Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

The Clippers are 0-12 ATS/SU  with rest off a win as a dog when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 40 rebounds per game like Milwaukee.

NBA   team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 41-16 SU L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 33-17 ATS  L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Dallas enters this game in full lottery pick tank mode, as is evident by a current 5 game losing streak. Meanwhile, Sacramento is 6-7 SU (9-4 ATS) in their L/13 games, and still playing spirited basketball. From a power ranking perspective my numbers suggest the  Kings are the superior side here on their own home floor.  In other words the lesser of two evils resides with the hosts.

DALLAS is 1-10 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

The Kings are 13-0/SU ATS covering by  as a home favorite with less than two days rest after their opponent shot over 50% from the field.

DALLAS is 4-12 ATS   versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

Sacramento has won 3 of the L/4 games here in Sacramento.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

The Pelicans (43-31) on 2 days rest will be rejuvenated and  primed to take on the visiting Portland Trail Blazers (45-28) on Tuesday night at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans have won four of the last five meetings against the Trail Blazers, including the last two -- a 123-116 victory on Dec. 2 at Portland and a 119-113 win on Jan. 12 in New Orleans. From a power rankings perspective, despite of the Blazers red hot form the Pelicans match up well against this team in a systems analysis and get the nod here on their own home floor.

Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days .

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 13-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

The Wizards are struggling and need wins badly and are currently one game ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks and 1 1/2 games ahead of the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference . Tonight I'm betting the  Wizards will be ready for a San Antonio team playing much better basketball of late. The Spurs despite of their improved play, had a  6-0 home stand go flat when they went on the road and lost to a inconsistent Milwaukee team last time out for their 4th straight road loss. It must also be noted that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. The Spurs have looked like two different teams, when playing as host and than as visitors which must be worrisome for HC Popovich and company. After getting blind sided by the lowly NY Knicks last time out, I'm betting this sometimes unmotivated group of Wizards has some extra jump here  tonight and  take out the Spurs in this spot.

WASHINGTON is 36-20 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last few seasons.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are just 36-73 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

 Denver is seven games above .500,  and are still not guaranteed a play off position, and are one game behind Utah in the  Western Conference Northwest Division. Needless to say every game is of the utmost importance . This kind of desperate  side that validates a betting stance. I know Philly has been hot, but Denver is no pushovers and must be respected here with so much on the line when it comes to post season implications. Add to that the Nuggets have revenge on board for a loss at home to the 76ers back on Dec 30th of this season. DENVER is 15-6 ATS   revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season

Note: The 76ers have lost 5 of their L/7 SU vs above .500 opposition.

Nuggets are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. 76ers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Nuggets are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS  L/34 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 90-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Denver to cover

Utah has not looked all that cohesive in their last few games losing twice, once to lowly Atlanta and in OT last time out vs San Antonio and in the one victory they looked far from dominating vs a Dallas squad in tank mode. In this spot vs  a banged up Golden State team, the lines-makers have decided they deserve to be more than 5 point road favorites. But I'm betting that number is a little bloated, considering how deep the Warriors truly are. With Thompson, Durant, Curry out of the lineup the Warriors can no longer be considered super human, but now just a average to below average side. But when co-coordinating similar lines, and comparing them to my own power rankings , we still have value with a home pup with revenge on board for a ugly 129-99 loss earlier this season to todays visitor Utah.

Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Jazz are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference. Jazz are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.

UTAH is 14-27 ATS  L/41  in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last  few seasons.

Note: Warriors Draymond Green is upgraded to probable Sunday.

NBA  Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 48-6 SU L/21 seasons for 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover

Atlanta enters this game off a  99-94 win vs Utah Jazz on Tuesday. Their were a few factors at work in that win, but the Hawks overall ugly record speaks for itself, and those types of performances are not consistent . With that said, I now expect a emotional letdown situation to effect the Hawks in this spot vs the Sacramento Kings. I know both teams are in tank mode, but Atlanta smashed Sacramento 126-80 at home on Nov. 15, and I'm betting the Kings will have a little bit of extra energy in the tank tonight in payback mode. 

ATLANTA is 9-23 ATS   in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last few  seasons. Sacramento has won and covered the L/2 meetings here in California's capital.  

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, off a huge upset win as an underdog of 10 points or more are 5-27 SU L/5 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Hawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record .Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast. Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

 NBA Favorites (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are 144-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

 Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The LA Clippers looked exhausted last night in a DD 123-109 loss to Minnesota and  are on very, very, very tired legs entering this tilt vs Milwaukee  this Wednesday night on a 4 game losing streak. With this being their 5th  away game in 8 nights their exhausted as they allowed 120+ points for the third consecutive time . . Last night I advised we  back the Wolves, and tonight I'm recommending we do the same by backing the Bucks. The key here is burnout, and the Clippers are exhibiting signs of classic work place fatigue.

LA CLIPPERS are 3-11 ATS  after allowing 120 points or more this season.Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Milwaukee has won both meetings recent meetings in this series, home and away.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 23-57 ATS L/5 seasons for  ago against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Raptors  smashed the Cavs, the three-time-defending champions in the East, their worst loss of the season when they beat Cleveland 133-99 on Jan. 11 and now payback and some measured respect is on the line in the rematch for LeBron James and company. James is playing great hoops of late   Love is back in the lineup , and even  Tristan Thompson (sprained right ankle) and Rodney Hood (lower back strain) were upgraded to questionable for Wednesday's game, which has me coming in late here to lay down some cash on the Cavs. Note: The Raptors have looked a little tired of late, and played last night which should effect their energy levels late in this game when things count most. Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

Cleveland is 7-1 SU L/8 at home in this series.

NBA Favorites (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are 114-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (TORONTO) - in a game involving two below average  defensive teams (102 PPG or more) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 43-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

The LA Clippers are on very tired legs entering this tilt vs Minnesota this Tuesday night. In their last game  on Sunday... back home in  Los Angeles they played their third contest in three cities in four nights and now this will be their 4 away game in 6 nights, which I am betting will effect their play here this evening. Yes, Minnesota will play without key cog Jimmy Butler, but their still plenty of fight and talent in this this lineup and their more than capable of snatching a win in this spot at home where they are 26-9 this season.

Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

MINNESOTA is 36-20 ATS  L/56 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots.

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 53-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average of victory coming by 10 ppg.

Play on Minnesota Wolves to cover

The Oklahoma City Thunder may find themselves in a precarious letdown spot here this Tuesday night in Boston as they visit the Celtics  after a very hard fought win vs the Toronto Raptors last time out that ended the Raptors 11 game win streak. I watched a last part of that tilt and was a grueling affair. Meanwhile the Celtics have won their last two games against the Thunder, including a 101-84 victory on Nov. 3 at Oklahoma City and despite of some injuries matchup well against the Thunder. I know that the Thunder are streaking but from a ATS perspective, they don't deal well with success as they are just  1-13 ATS  L/14  in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread and are fade material here at 4 point or more chalk.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-23 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-19 ATS ( revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60% ) are 44-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

The Memphis Grizzlies have had a horrendous season,  but are off a win vs Dallas last time out, which ended a 19 game losing streak. The Grizzlies despite of their failures have remained fairly competitive and saw 10 of those 19 losses come by single digits , and are more than capable of covering again vs a inconsistent Brooklyn Nets side that has lost 12 of their L/15 overall, and  has lost 22 of their 34 homes games this season.

Memphis has won and covered their L/2 trips to Brooklyn. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Nets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset win as an underdog are 90-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Memphis to cover

The red hot  Portland Trail Blazers  enter into tonights LA game vs the Clippers on Sunday night with big targets on their backs after notching 12 consecutive victories. With the Blazers also eyeing big upcoming tilts vs Houston and the Boston Celtics they may not be completely focused here which  could I'm betting  result in a negative effort vs a team primed to grab a victory and end their opponents win streak.

It must be noted that Los Angeles turned it over 23 times in a sloppy 121-113 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday and are now 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and desperate for a win. The Clippers are 7-1 L/8 ATS off a loss.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (PORTLAND) - in a game involving two below average  defensive teams (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 6-43 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on the LA Clippers

Charlotte's Hornets star Dwight Howard  enters this game on fire ,  playing some of his best basketball in years with three 30-point games in the last 10 days, including a 33-point performance in a 129-117 win over his former team, the Atlanta Hawks. Tonight I'm betting he will be the catalyst behind what is a now an explosive Charlotte offense that can easily take advantage of a team that has lost 9 straight and 17 of their L/18 games overall and playing a lot of young players.

NEW YORK is 9-21 ATS  L/30 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season.

Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.

NBA Favorites (CHARLOTTE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 29-5 ATS l/21 seasons for a  85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover

One of Houston's three losses since Jan. 6 was a 115-113 setback at New Orleans on Jan. 26 and now the teams play again. Houston is off clinching the division title last time out, on Thursday and could now be in a letdown spot vs a side that actually matches up quite well against them as has been evident by recent meetings. I know New Orleans has struggled a bit over tier  last few games, but taking on this type of top tier side I'm betting will bring out the best them.  Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and get the nod getting points here this evening.

Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New Orleans.Underdog is 20-9-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season  are 44-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

 The Oklahoma City Thunder have made a habit of beating up on lower tier teams, which is good as their taking care of business when they need to but, they have struggled against better teams. . Since Feb. 1, the Thunder are just 2-6 against teams with better-than-.500 records, beating only Golden State on the road and the Spurs at home. Tonight they go against another above .500 opponent, the LA Clippers a team that desperately needs win to get into the play offs as they are on the bubble at the moment. Los Angeles has won 11 of their last 16 to stay in playoff contention and must not be underestimated in their current desperate form.

Note: The Thunder could be without Center Steven Adams and George who were both limited in Thursday's practice and both are listed as questionable. If they do play they will be less than 100%,giving a key advantage to the Clippers.

LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 ATS   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.Clippers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 ATS   in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS  on Friday nights this season.

The Thunder are 0-12 ATS L/12 failing to cover by 9.75 ppg and 1-11 with that win coming by just 1 point when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a road favorite in which their high scorer had at least ten more points than their next highest scorer.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The banged up Boston Celtics gave everything they had against long time rivals the Washington Wizards last time out losing, 125-124 in OT. Now still shorthanded playing without key cog Kyrie Irving and exhausted and emotionally letdown after that above mentioned marathon event,  they will  be at a disadvantage  trying to cover a 6 point + spread on the road against a young hungry group in Orlando looking for recognition.

Meanwhile, Orlando has also sustained some injuries, but they are also hanging in there, and are off a win last time out and for the most part remain competitive and deserve my respect here as home dogs in this spot.

I know that Boston lost to Orlando at home back in Jan , but right now I don't think their in the best shape mentally or physically to get their revenge and  hand out a beat down in their current form

BOSTON is 9-21 ATS versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons. .

The Celtics are 0-15 ATS failing to cover by an average of 7 ppg off a home loss in which they scored at least ten points more in the first quarter than they did in the fourth quarter and 2-13 SU with both wins coming by just 3 points. .

NBA Road teams (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 95-154 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Orlando to cover

Heading into this tilt at Indiana , the  Toronto Raptors are in red hot form and  have won nine in a row and 16 of its last 17 and are one of  the very few teams in this league that must be respected as road favorites. I know Toronto has played a heavy schedule of late , but they are the best conditioned team in the NBA, and more than capable of standing tall here and notching  the win and cover s visitors. A great deal has been made of Indiana, and I  respect this team, but they have proven highly inconsistent this season, with long negative and positive runs and despite of a current 3 game win streak and 6 wins in their L/7 overall , just  dont' inspire me against this type of lights out side, that will primed to continue to prove their dominance over the Eastern Conference.  

Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

TORONTO is 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Toronto 114.6 Opp 97

NBA Road favorites (TORONTO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 25-3 L/21 seasons for a 89.% conversion rate for bettors. ( Team 98 Opp 87.5)

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Philadelphia enters this game having lost  eight of its last 11 road games, and are being over valued here vs a Brooklyn side that has been very competitive of late covering 5 of their L/6 games overall including a DD win last time out. Note: BROOKLYN is 7-0 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season.  Meanwhile, The Sixer's issues of late seem to be a lack of conditioning as they have looked fatigued , with key contributors like Joel  Embiid  who has looked gassed in recent outings averaging just 18.8 points on 41 percent shooting in five games in March after averaging 24.4 ppg on 50.3 percent shooting in February. QUOTE: "I think fatigue definitely has a part to say in some of Joel's performances recently," Philadelphia coach Brett Brown told reporters after Thursday's game when Embiid shot less than 30 percent for the first time all season. END QUOTE: With that said, I'm betting on a fairly well rested Brooklyn side to make a game of this and not be easy outs . Take the points.

( The last time these teams played here in Brooklyn back on Jan 31 the Nets won 116-108 as 8 point dogs)

BROOKLYN is 15-7 ATS  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.BROOKLYN is 25-12 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread this season.BROOKLYN is 32-20 ATS   as an underdog this season. BROOKLYN is 19-9 ATS  L/28 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

NBA Home teams (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Sunday games are 71-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more are 6-26 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

Charlotte enters this game in a big time funk having lost 5 straight games, and should not be DD favs against any team at the NBA in their current form not even the lowly Phoenix Suns. That was evident in a disheartening loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday night which will make getting up off the proverbial matt very difficult for the Hornets.

The Hornets nasty D, makes them fade material as DD home chalk. The Hornets have allowed 121 or more points six times in their last 15 games.

CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS  L/13 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game.CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS  L/13 playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.

The Suns are 13-0 ATS L/13 covering by 9.6 ppg on the road off a game as a dog when they are off two double-digit ATS losses. The Suns were 9-4 SU in those games with non of the losses coming by more than 7 points.The Hornets are 1-18 SU and 2-17 ATS with rest when they are off two consecutive games in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers.

NBA Road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 62-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover

The Portland Trail Blazers' current eight-game winning streak began Feb. 14, when the Golden State Warriors visited here just before the all star break. The Blazers won that game by a 123-117 count, but will be hard pressed to do it again vs
 a revenge minded team with superior talent base.   With that said,  I'm betting on a  alpha and omega situation that will see the Blazers run come to an abrupt end right where their streak began, in the Moda Center.

Golden State is 27-5 SU on the road this season with the average margin of victory coming by 7 ppg.
Warriors are 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Portland.
Trail Blazers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Home underdogs (PORTLAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 32-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 148-82 ATS L/21 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 58-10 SU winning by a combined average of 8.4 ppg game , which gives credence to us laying 4 points or less in this situation.

Play on Golden State to cover

The 76ers and Miami Heat have played three times already this season with the home team holding serve in each tilt, and I'm betting the status quo remains the same after tonight. Miami has won the last six times it has faced the 76ers at home.

MIAMI is 20-8 ATS  L/28  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign.

The Heat are 18-0 ATS/SU off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and it is after the All-Star break with the wins coming by an average of 17 ppg.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are just 6-27 ATS L/21 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

 Cleveland will be out  looking for payback when they  meet in Denver on Wednesday night for a 126-117 loss they suffered at home to the Nuggets last week. But with that said,  you don't always get what you want as the Rolling Stones song suggests.  Tonight, I'm betting the young Nuggets despite of playing last night and looking disinterested in a loss to Dallas as road chalk, will be very motivated for a bounce back at home vs a Cavaliers side I'm betting they will be up for playing against and that they actually matchup well against according to my own system vs system analysis.  Note: Nuggets are a well conditioned group and are  11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing  with no rest.

CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS   versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season and is 4-12 ATS   versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season. CLEVELAND is 9-21 ATS   versus below average defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season.

Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (DENVER) - off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, second half of the season are 32-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 11 ppg.

Play on Denver to cover

The schizophrenic Indiana Pacers are currently on a 3 game win streak,  and have  7 wins  in their L/9 and look very much like their revving up into top gear, and must be respected here on their own home floor where they have thrived going 22-11 SU this season. When they visited tonight's guests Utah back on Jan 15 the Pacers looked like they matched up well against their opponents, and despite of Jazz looking for revenge I'm betting they fall short. Note: Utah has lost 19 of their 31 road games this season.Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Meanwhile, the  Jazz have won three in a row and are 15-2 in the last 17 games. But now on tired legs with this their 4th game in 7 days and  short handed as they are expected to  be  without forward Derrick Favors, who is sidelined with neck spasms, their at a disadvantage. If Favors plays I, expecting he will be less 100%. QUOTE: "We're going to have a very difficult game at Indiana," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said. "We know that. They played well against us here and beat us pretty good (109-94 on Jan. 15). END QUOTE

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 44-211 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana Pacers to cover

Golden State continues their quest for another NBA championship and are currently in top form  having  won five straight as they host the downtrodden Brooklyn Nets this Tuesday night. Despite of the Warriors over whelming fire power and superior record compared the  the Brooklyn Nets  recent meetings  in this series ,have been competitive .

The last time these teams played the Nets made  the Warriors work hard  for a 118-111 win  at home in November. It must also be noted that  six of their last seven games at Golden State have been decided by nine or fewer points, with one loss going to overtime. Recently despite of their continued futility the Nets have shown some fight, as their L/3 road losses have been decided by a total margin of 14 points ( 4.66 ppg). With that said, lets plug our noses, closes our eyes and  quickly squeeze the proverbial trigger on the Nets to cover taking points.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-19 ATS  L/27 against Atlantic division opponents.Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.BROOKLYN is 30-20 ATS  as an underdog this season. BROOKLYN is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a top-tier team (Win Pct. 70% or better) this season. 

Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (BROOKLYN) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are a long term quality wager, going 241-160 ATSL/21 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover

I don't make a habit of laying a lot of lumber with my NBA selections, but every now and than playing chalk makes sense. Right now NY is just playing out its schedule, and despite of a hungry group of bench players and G League scrubs getting a lot of court time they  are still fade material vs a Portland side currently in top form, as is evident by winning 7 straight. The Blazers have also only lost once in their L/14 at home in the Moda Center where they consistently play their best hoops behind super star Damian Liilard. The Knicks have lost in 11 of their last 13 meetings with the Blazers, including a 103-91 defeat at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 27  and once again look like they will end up on the wrong side of a lopsided score.
QUOTE: "We're really showing our growth," Lillard said. "We're continuing to stay locked in. Right now, we're playing good basketball. If shots aren't falling, we're not letting that dictate how we defend, how we communicate and our energy. We're controlling games with our consistency." END QUOTE:

Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Knicks are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NEW YORK is 3-13 ATS  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season with the average margin of defeat coming by 12.6 ppg.

NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 7-55 SU losing by an average of just under 10 ppg.

Play on Portland to cover

The Bucks and Pacers go head to head for the second time in less than a week in Central Division action this Monday night . The last time they played it was a hard fought affair. Pacers managed to eek out a  103-96 win at Milwaukee  despite of nearly blowing a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Now in the return bout, I'm expecting to the Bucks to have a good chance of returning the unsavory favor of dumping the Pacers in front of their own fans and more importantly get us the cover. It must be noted that the Bucks and their  Greek Freak looked to be coming out of a mini slump when he provided his team with 35 points in a come from behind win vs Philadelphia last night . When this top tier baller is on his game, the Bucks are hard to defeat, and I'm betting he will be the catalyst for his team to cover in this spot. Yes, I know Indiana has played well of late, and off two consecutive road upsets. But in the past this has not be a good scenario for the Pacers as they are  just 2-12 ATS  L/14 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog.

Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bucks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest.Pacers are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are just 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 4-28 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Bucks enter this game against the Sixer's slumping ( 4 straight losses) but they are more than capable of turning things around, and  have won or tied the last five season series with Philadelphia  .Each team has won once on its home court already this season . QUOTE: "We can't worry about these last couple games," Middleton said. "I know they were big games for us; we lost them, we've been through it before. Now we've just got to bounce back, pull together and show the kind of team that we are." END QUOTE. With that said, I'm expecting a big time effort here from the Dr.Jekyll  and Mr. Hyde Bucks in this spot.

76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic.

MILWAUKEE is 19-6 ATS  L/25 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last few seasons.MILWAUKEE is 84-48 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses .aVERAGE COMPOSITE score: Bucks 99 Opp 99.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Kings enter this game in a positive state of mind and momentum on their sides as they come off a home victory. Sacramento's 116-111 overtime winner over the Brooklyn Nets ended a four-game home losing streak and a five-game skid overall. The Kings will face a  Utah Jazz side off a revenge win last night vs Minnesota  on tired legs and susceptible to being in a letdown situation vs a team that they could easily be over looking. Note: Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

Jazz are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a home win against a division rival, on Saturday games are 17-42 SU L/5 seasons for 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The Spurs,  have lost four of their past five games and seven of their last 10 trips to the hardwood, and are now in need of getting their ship righted and quickly before the post season arrives. Tonight against a Lakers side that they have revenge against for a 93-81 upset loss earlier this season, I expect Popovich and company to come out here with all guns blazing in the friendly confines of the AT & T Center where they own a 22-7 SU record . It must be noted that Popovich is a perfect 12-0 SU in his career vs Pacific division sides with revenge for a same season loss and once again looks to notch a win and more importantly a cover.

Spurs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Lakers are 1-10 SU L/11 after playing in Miami. ( That's a place where a lot  ballers go over board with extra curricular activities and hangovers for young groups like the Lakers are common.)

NBA  Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games are 41-15 ATS L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover

The young Suns broke an 0-for-February run with a 110-102 victory at Memphis on Wednesday and now have a little momentum on their sides as they face the Oklahoma City Thunder this Friday night in Arizona.  Phoenix took a  114-100 victory over Oklahoma City seven weeks ago , and strangely enough according to my system vs system power rankings matches up well against the Thunder. Considering how the Thunder consistently play down to lower tier opponents it will not be a difficult decision to take the points with home side in this spot.

Suns are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-16 ATS  as a road favorite this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-11 ATS   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-22 ATS L/28 versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of  46% or worse this season.

NBA team vs the money line (PHOENIX) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) are 26-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 10-34 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover

The mighty Golden State Warriors visit the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night at Capital One Arena in a game that I'm betting will be a lot closer than the linesmakers may anticipate. The    Wizards in their last trip to the hardwood took  107-104 victory in Milwaukee on Tuesday for their third win in four games since the All-Star break . Washington is 10-3 without injured point guard John Wall

.In these teams' first meeting, the Warriors trailed by 10 at home after three quarters, but rallied for a 120-117 win Oct. 27. No body in this league matches up well against the Warriors, but from a system vs system stand point I'm betting the Wizards have an edge despite of playing last night.

Washington has covered 10 of their L/13 overall. Golden State is just 14-16 ATS on the road this season.Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

WASHINGTON is 17-7 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS  as an underdog this season.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are just 18-44 SU L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

Sacramento despite of playing last night are viable underdogs in this spot vs Portland thanks to this line be over exaggerated by the lines-makers. The Kings lost 118-110  to Minnesota on Monday  but have been competitive overall and have  been in position in the fourth quarter to win their previous three contests, despite of suffering losses in those tilts. Previous to those games they beat Dallas.  Note: Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on NO rest. The Kings have also covered 10 of their L/16 overall, while Portland has covered just 14 of 29 at home this season for sub. 500 ATS record as hosts. Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

SACRAMENTO is 36-13 ATS  in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a lower tier  defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after allowing 105 points or more are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

Charlotte enters this game playing some pretty good basketball at the moment, as their 4 game win streak would suggest. However, this Hornets teams is far from being  consistent and  slightly being over rated by the lines-makers tonight as home chalk.Meanwhile, the Bulls in a rebuilding season, are struggling mightily, but have been competitive enough to warrant being backed as DD dogs vs this type of team, based on my own system to system analysis .  The Bulls are 2-0 against the Hornets this season and have won each of the last four meetings. 

Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bulls are 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings.

CHICAGO is 22-10 ATS  L/32 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS   against Southeast division opponents this season.CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS  L/12 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.CHARLOTTE is 2-16 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game this season. CHARLOTTE is 4-17 ATS  L/21 after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread.CHARLOTTE is 1-9 ATS  L/10 in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half dating back to last season.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (CHICAGO) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting 21 or less free throws/game, on Tuesday nights are 46-15 ATS L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CHARLOTTE) - strong offensive team (102 PPG or better ) against a struggling  defensive team (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 24-57 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

The Hornets are 0-18 SU/ 1-17 ATS with rest when they are off two consecutive games in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers.

Play on Chicago Bulls to cover

Houston has averaged 123 points during  a current 12 win streak.  However, the Jazz are a side that can present any team in the NBA some problems in their current form  after winning 12 of their last 13 games. The Jazz have also held 10 of its last 13 foes  below 100 points and deserve respect here in their own back yard. After playing last night, I expect the Rockets to be on tired legs and for the high altitude of Salt Lake City to be hard on them. Note: Houston is just 2-8 ATS L/10 with no rest, while the Jazz are 7-3 ATS as home dogs this campaign.

Utah has been winning SU but not covering spreads regularly.... However,  HC Snyder is 8-0 ATS  L/8 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games.

NBA teams (HOUSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in February games are 51-93 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 65% for bettors on the blind.

NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-78 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (UTAH) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 103-60 ATS L/5 seasons L/21 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Utah to cover

Tonight's Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks game features two teams operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum. Indiana has won 4 straight, while, the Mavericks are on a four-game losing streak . The Mavs have only notched 3 wins in their L/14 overall but Nine of the Mavericks' last 14 losses are by single digits, and they must not be underestimated as home dogs in this spot.

DALLAS is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.

 The Pacers are 0-13 ATS/SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50 and it is after the All-Star break.   losing SU by an average of 9.5 ppg.

Play on Dallas to cover

Orlando enters this tilt on a 5 game losing streak, but they have been competitive in their L/15 trips to the hardwood covering 10 times and only twice during that span have lost by more than 10 points. The Magic also beat their hosts  tonight the Thunder earlier this season by a 121-108 count and actually matchup well against them from a system to system standpoint. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City despite of their top tier talent, have been largely inconsistent this season. This unbalanced basketball is exemplified on  the ATS board where the Thunder have covered only 3 of their L/8 games. Tonight the up and down Oklahoma City hoops team now find themselves in  a precarious spot as they enter this game in an emotional letdown mode after getting slapped around by Golden State 112-80 last time out and are susceptible to a down effort.

Orlando is 4-1 ATS L/5 meetings in this series and have covered 5 straight here in Oklahoma City.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-10 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-20 ATS L/26 versus struggling  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%or more this season.

Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.Thunder are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - lower tier rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 30-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more have won SU 23 of the L/33 opportunities.

NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 20-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Orlando to cover

I have this way of going against the grain from time to time, and that's what I'm dong here this Sunday as I fade a 76ers team that owns the  Eastern Conference's longest current winning streak ( 8 games) . Meanwhile, the   Washington Wizards  are 8-3 in its last 11  despite of playing without key cog  John Wall to a knee injury are viable opponent for NBA opponents here at home in DC. The Wizards won three straight road games before getting smacked around by a  122-105 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday, but will be now be ready for a bounce back performance on their own home floor. Note:WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS  L/8  in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite.  It must be noted that the Wizards  seem to play their best hoops against top tier teams and have recent wins vs  Oklahoma City, Toronto, and Cleveland and I'm betting the young Sixer's are next on their hit list.

Washington has won the last seven home meetings with Philadelphia and 20 of the last 26.

WASHINGTON is 15-7 ATS  L/22 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season.

NBA Home teams (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 80-39 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

The San Antonio Spurs went into the all star break losing  five of their last six games and now the pundits are jumping off the band wagon. I'm saying not so quick. This franchise has just to much pedigree and experience to be dismissed so easily and must be respected here tonight as well rested  road underdogs. I know the experts are currently in love with the Denver Nuggets, after   having  won nine of their last 12, but this is still a team that has proven itself inconsistent and needs a little more positive momentum to be looked upon with such fondness from the media. I understand we live in the world of instant gratification and what have you done for me lately attitude, but I'm still a believer in Popovich and company and that get my backing here tonight . The Nuggets did beat the Spurs in their last meeting on Feb 13 by a 117-109 count, but the Spurs are 8-3 SU/ATS with same season revenge in this series, and his Spurs are 11-3 SU when playing on 6 or more days rest.

 Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Spurs are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Denver.

NBA Favorites (DENVER) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a struggling  defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 59-104 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors on the blind.

Play on San Antonio to cover

The Milwaukee Bucks have been playing decent ball since Jason Kidd was fired, but I'm still not completely sold on them going forward. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are also in top form and have won 5 of their L/6 overall via an explosive offense averaging more than 117.8 ppg during that stretch. The Nuggets according to my power rankings are playing their best hoops of the season and must be respected here as underdogs. Note: Denver is 15-2 ATS L/17 as an underdog in this series. From a SRS perspective Denver owns a  +0.88 mark while Milwaukee clicks in at  -0.18. ( SRS =Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average) With that said, we have value with taking points here.

Milwaukee is just 33-67 ATS at home as chalk  in  non conference home  tilts of late.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 28-11 ATS  L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

Despite losing 130-123 at Dallas on Saturday, the Lakers are playing some very competitive basketball of late , and have won 12 of their l/17 games and have upward momentum on their sides and are up trending in my power rankings.   The Lakers newly acquired point guard Isaiah Thomas came off the bench Saturday in his Lakers' debut and scored 22 points and had six assists in 31 minutes and is a very nice addition to this young team. Meanwhile, New Orleans, are still adjusting to playing without  DeMarcus Cousins, and must not be over estimated in their abilities despite of upsetting Detroit Pistons last time out  (118-103). It must also be noted that NEW ORLEANS is 9-22 ATS L/31 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog .

Pelicans are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific and  are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Road team is 30-14 ATS in the last 44 meetings

LA LAKERS are 14-6 ATS   versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season.NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS as a home favorite over the last few seasons.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

The Clippers have surprisingly won four of their last five games and are 4-2 since  a trade  sent Blake Griffin to the Detroit Pistons. Needless to say the Boston Celtics will not be over looking them despite of this Clippers team going into rebuild mode. Considering both teams rosters  and current systems, the head to head matchup favors the home team by 7 points according to my own numbers giving us value on a basic 5 point home advantage line.

Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.

BOSTON is 20-7 ATS L/27 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%)  are 31-2 SU for a 94% conversion rate with the average margin deficit clicking in at 10.6 ppg.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Cleveland has won three consecutive games, scoring 121 or more points in each and now the pundits are all piling back on to the bandwagon. I'm a believer in the Cavaliers ability to continue their upward momentum, as well over the long haul, but I'm betting this is a bad spot for them. Meanwhile, Oklahoma city is expected to have both Russell Westrook and Carmelo Anthony  back in the lineup tonight, after both sat two games with a ankle injury. Both these top tier players presence  , and  the positive  energy involved with taking on a championship contender will have the Thunder ready to perform in  what is a very tough venue for visitors to play in . Oklahoma City has won the L/2 meetings in this series home and away.

CLEVELAND is 8-22 ATS  L/30 revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points. CLEVELAND is 16-34 ATS  L/50 versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. CLEVELAND is 4-18 ATS  L/22 in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS  L/18 in non-conference games this season.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are just 13-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

The Knicks, who lost All-Star center/forward Kristaps Porzingis for the season to a torn left ACL last week are now looked upon as a downtrodden group that does not deserve any respect. While that maybe partially true, thanks to their overall horrid W/L record,  this team still has some fight left in them as players look to solidify their standing on the team and future paydays. They always say pro sports is all about the money,  and it is, so the Knicks wont stop playing hard, as very few of them on this team have any guarantees in this league going forward. The Knicks are not just going to lye down and take a nap, but instead I expect will fight even harder. Tonight, I'm betting their being under rated vs a 76ers side that despite of being a lot better than in previous seasons, is still a side that is young, with consistency  still  being a problem with these talented kids. . So needless to say  Its a hard stretch for me to suddenly see them listed as 12 plus point favs, against anyone in the NBA even here at home .I know  the Knicks played last night and the  Sixer's and their fans have recently fed off the energy associated with the  Eagles winning the Super Bowl, but that's now fading and when you put out that much emotional energy its sometimes hard to keep playing at a high level, especially against a beat up team like the Knicks that they are probably overlooking. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance here and take the dogs to cover on a slightly bloated line.

76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

The 5 meetings in this series have seen 3 games decided by 1 point , one game by 3 , and their most recent game by 7 points.

PHILADELPHIA is 4-18 ATS L/22 in home games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots .NEW YORK is 21-10 ATS L/31 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.

NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Houston enters this game against visiting Dallas having won its seventh straight game with a 130-104 blowout of the Denver Nuggets on Friday. But its interesting to note the Rockets are just 2-11 ATS  L/13 in home games after a blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Rockets also have a tendency of playing down to their opponents, and are just  0-7 ATS  in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.HOUSTON is also 0-8 ATS  as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and are slightly over valued considering how they seem to do just enough to get victories vs teams likes this as they save their energy  for bigger fish. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of having a down season, are still capable of being competitive despite of playing last night ( beat LAL 130-123) and are my recommendation getting points in this spot Note:. Mavericks have covered 4 of their L/5 in back to backs, and  are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Rockets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

DALLAS is 14-6 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a loss by 10 points or more are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

The Sacramento Kings are a young team, but they have a great deal of energy and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this DD number as road dogs here in Minnesota tonight. The Kings have recently pulled off upsets on the road against the Heat and Pelicans and have a never say die attitude. Meanwhile, MINNESOTA is  just 7-17 ATS   when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign and 12-23 ATS  when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).

Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

I know that the San Antonio Spurs are a little banged up with key cog Leonard out of the lineup , however,  I'm betting their still viable underdogs here on a line that according to my own projections is a little bloated,  thanks to the defending champion Golden State Warriors being a public team. The Warriors are just 21-31-2 ATS this season, and have continually failed to produce covers for their backers, thanks to the exaggerated lines attached to their tilts. I know they clobbered the Spurs earlier this season on the road by a 112-92 mark, but lately the champs have looked a little tired and maybe just floating into the all star break as they look preserve energy for the stretch run. Meanwhile, Popovich and company are a group looking for revenge here, and probably feel a little disrespected by being pegged DD dogs. ( By the way despite of what NBA players and coaches say they do take the occasional  peak a vegas lines)

SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS  L/11  in road games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots . Golden State is 4-16 ATS facing teams with same season revenge for a 20 point or more loss.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a  defense  allowing  (102 PPG or more ) are 29-8 ATS L5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 41-16 L/5 seasons, for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover

The Orlando Magic are  playing some very good basketball at the moment and enter this game against the Milwaukee Bucks with  three straight wins. What is even more important as far as we are concerned is the Magic's ability to be very competitive as they have covered 13 of their L/15 overall.  It took some time but this team is jelling behind a patient coaching staff, and management that has not been hard on this young group. The Magic  are playing well with the duo D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack as their primary point guards after Elfrid Payton was traded to Phoenix at the deadline.  With Augustin as a starter  the Magic have flourished going 6-2 SU with him in the starting lineup. During a current 6-5 11 game run the Magic are averaging 107.6 points on 48 percent shooting while allowing 105.4 points and dangerous opponents vs a tired Milwaukee team that looked exhausted last night in a physical loss to the Heat (91-85), and will have very little left in the tank in this spot. 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

MILWAUKEE is 9-19 ATS  L/28 against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.Bucks are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando and 1-4 ATS L/5 meetings overall.

Play on Orlando to cover

The Utah Jazz are playing some very good basketball at the moment,  having won 7 straight and despite of making a couple of trades at the deadline, are still looking like a viable side to back in this spot vs visiting Charlotte. Yesterday, the Jazz dumped one of their top scoring guards Hood, for an equally gifted  Jae Crowder from Cleveland, a two way player who fits in perfectly into their hard nosed defensive system. I'm expecting the Jazz not to skip a beat. Meanwhile, Charlotte, has lost two straight, and are off a exhausting OT tilt vs Portland last night, and now going in to the thin air of Salt Lake City should have problems competing as this game progresses, making them fade material in this spot.

UTAH is 10-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.CHARLOTTE is 6-16 ATS (as an underdog this season.UTAH is 13-5 ATS  L/18 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.

NBA Home teams (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights are 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah  Jazz to cover

As this season has progressed I have gained a lot of respect for the Miami Heat, and their work ethic behind key cog Hassan Whiteside. With newly acquired Dwayne Wade coming home to finish his career after getting traded yesterday, and some desperation after a 5 game losing streak,  I'm expecting a little extra jump in the legs of this Heat team, and for and from them to come out of this with a victory vs the  Giannis "Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo and company.

Note: Milwaukee is short handed .. G Delavedova  and  G Malcolm Brogdon (torn left quad) are out with injuries.

MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  L/19 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign.Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record MIAMI is 17-8 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southeast.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 78-21 SU L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 57-99 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 61% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

Houston has been in top form almost all season, and despite of a current 6 game win streak enter this game a little banged up with starting forward Ryan Anderson (ankle) and reserve guard Eric Gordon (back) on the bench along with key starter Ariza and will be  short handed here tonight. Meanwhile, the Nuggets, winners of three straight and six of eight, are also currently in good form, and out to looking to avenge a loss to Houston earlier this season. Considering the Rockets situation and  heavy schedule of late, I'm making a contrarian move here and backing Denver to cover the number in a spot play.

DENVER is 11-3 ATS L/14  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. HOUSTON is 5-18 ATS L/23 in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23or more assists/game .HOUSTON is 8-18 ATS  L/26 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots.

NBA Home teams (HOUSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate .

Play on Denver to cover

The Washington Wizards despite of not having All-Star John Wall  in the lineup conjured up a     five-game winning streak before abruptly having it end in their last trip to the hardwood. The victorious run included wins vs Oklahoma City  and  Toronto.  Meanwhile, their opponents the Boston Celtics also had their ,  four game win streak ended when they were beaten up on by Toronto last time out  111-91  thud. Now these teams will both be looking to get back on track. Both according to my power rankings are pretty evenly matched, with home court advantage being the difference maker and their ability to outduel their opponents via top tier  ball movement and balanced scoring .

WASHINGTON is 19-8 ATS L/27 in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last few  seasons. Washington has won 5 of the L/7 meetings at home in this series SU. Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more are 8-54 SU L/21 seasons for a87% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

Orlando is play very good basketball at the moment, winning 3 of their L/4 games and are off beating the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.Since a 130-113 defeat  at Washington, the Magic are at .500 ( 5-5)  in their last 10 games. Four of the losses during that run are by single digits and four victories came  against teams with above.500 records Meanwhile. Atlanta has also won 2 straight, but my own power rankings suggest the Magic have the edge on their own home court. With that said, I am recommending we take the points in this spot.

Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Hawks are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Hawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 53-96 L/21 seasons for a 65% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Orlando to cover

It's official the lines-makers have finally thrown in the towel on the Cleveland Cavaliers after the Cavs completely embarrassed themselves in a  116-88 loss  to the Orlando Magic on Tuesday. Absolutely pitiful is the best two words I can use to describe that effort . It truly sickening to watch a talented team like this implode, which seems to be the case as HC Tyronn Lue can't seem to stomach watching this calamity unfold, and  has left the last two games at some point because of undisclosed illness. Despite of that last nasty effort, I'm still grasping on to my power rankings that suggest we have a live home dog here with what still must be considered a championship calibre team. With pride on the line, and revenge on board for a Cleveland's loss to the  Wolves on Jan. 8, in  Minnesota via a ugly 127-99 beating I'm actually going to recommend we take the points here. I know this is a contrarian viewpoint, but my convictions about this team, are still at least for now solid . With the Cavs showcasing a 19-7 SU record at home this season, I'm betting they dig deep here in play an inspired game in front of their fans , and get us the cover. QUOTE: "Just got to keep pushing," said LeBron James, who scored only 10 points the last time the Cavs played Minnesota. "Stay positive, keep pushing. Try to get better. That's where it's at for me. We've got another opportunity tomorrow playing against a very good team that beat us up pretty good in Minnesota before. We look forward to the challenge. We've got to come out with the right game plan, we've got to come out with a sense of urgency and we've got to play the game the right way and try to sustain some good basketball for 48 minutes." END QUOTE:

Minnesota has lost 4 of their L/7 overall, and  is 7-17 ATS  L/24  in road games in non-conference games .Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Home underdogs (CLEVELAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. are 33-9 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover

These two teams the Jazz and Grizzlies are currently playing at the opposite ends of the proverbial performance spectrum of late, with Utah on a 6 game win streak while the Grizzlies are on 4 game losing streak. Despite of the their current discrepancies   ,  their is value backing the home dog on what is a slightly bloated number. I know the Grizzlies played last night, but they did not exert much energy, in a lifeless loss to Atlanta, and recently have shown resiliency and good conditioning as they are 4-0 ATS L/4 back to backs, and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and  6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 7-2-1 ATS L/10 at home overall. Meanwhile the Jazz are Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. This ticket is not based on which side is better at the moment, but is based on the mathematics associated with spread betting, and according to my numbers and power rankings we  have value taking points.

Underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

NBA teams like  (UTAH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in February games are just 40-77 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

 Both the Memphis Grizzlies and their hosts the Atlanta Hawks have been highly inconsistent this season, with neither probably inspiring many bettors to back them. But in a game involving two bottom feeders, one side the ( Grizzlies) are the lesser of two evils according to my power rankings and head to head matchup analysis. When these teams played   on Dec. 15.  the Grizzlies defeated the Hawks  96-94 in Memphis , and once again look like a viable side to back in this spot.

ATLANTA is 1-13 ATS  L/14  in home games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread dating back to last season.

Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover

The Knicks enter this game frustrated and embarrassed after blowing what looked like a sure win last time out, as they gave up a 5 point lead with under 2 min lefts  and lost to Atlanta . Now completely dejected and with nothing to lose, I expect a all out effort from a side looking to get some pride back. Key Trend: Knicks are 5-0 ATS l/5 after a loss. QUOTE: "I can't even process that we lost," Knicks leading scorer Kristaps Porzingis told reporters after the game. "I can't believe it. It was our game. It was 100 percent our game. Stuff happened quick, and boom, it was over. ... We're just not there yet as a team. We keep losing these games." END QUOTE: I know the Knicks don't inspire many bettors, but considering their current mood, and  the fact they actually matchup well vs the Bucks  actually makes them  decent options in this spot. Note:  When these teams played last week the Bucks squeaked out a 92-90  vs the Knicks at home , but now with this game now in NYC could get easily get  hi jacked in MSG in the rematch tonight. (  The Knicks are outrebounding Bucks this season, 44.4 to 39.0, and the Bucks rank  19th in the NBA in points per game (104.7) and 11th in points allowed (104.9). The Knicks are right behind the Bucks in both categories ranking  20th in points per game (104.1) and 13th in points allowed at 105.5. Milwaukee has a SRS of - 0.28 vs NYK -1.69 .

Bucks are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Underdog is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings and Bucks have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 visits to NY to play the Knicks.

Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo left last game, is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs New York ( Foot ) but is still operating at  less than 100% tonight.

NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS  L/20 after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 18-30 ATS  L/48 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games .

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more are  55-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Two cellar dwellers go head to head tonight in the NBA. The Bulls  are  near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. The Kings are at the bottom  of the Western Conference. But according to my power rankings one side is the lesser of two evils and that is the Chicago Bulls, a hoops franchise that despite of rebuilding has played well for long stretch's this season and have gained my respect. I know their leading scorer(Mirotic)  was traded to the Pelicans, in exchange for forward Omer Asik and guard Jameer Nelson, but with key cog Markkanen back in the lineup after a week off (personal) they  will have fresh legs in the lineup and will be  dangerous underdogs.    With that said,  the Kings have not won on their own home floor since a 106-98 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Jan. 6 and are weak chalk here again tonight .

Chicago has won 4 of their L/5 visits to Sacramento and are 2-0 here in recent meetings.

SACRAMENTO is 4-14 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHICAGO is 14-5 ATS  L/19  versus struggling foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season.CHICAGO is 18-9 ATS   versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors, and NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are a bankroll expanding 70-25 ATS L/21 seasons for a long term 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

The Jazz have won five in a row, including their last four road games, and they upset the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night 120-111 and are currently operating at a top level of performance. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have lost three of four games since star center DeMarcus Cousins suffered a season-ending left Achilles tear and are now struggling to find cohesiveness as they adjust to his absence. From a matchup perspective in both sides current for the Jazz have the edge.The Jazz have won four of the last five against New Orleans and get the nod again as road pups.

Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in New Orleans.

UTAH is 9-1 ATS  L/10 after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. UTAH is 15-4 ATS  L/19 in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS  L/69 as a home favorite. Pelicans HC Gentry is 9-24 favorite ATS  L/33 where they attempted 90 or more shots in all games in 2 straight games .  Snyder is 21-9 ATS   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home in his career.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, second half of the season are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover

Portland has been playing some highly competitive hoops of late and have won 7 of their L/9 games and have only failed to cover 1 of their L/8 games overall. The Trail Blazers saw their four-game winning streak end abruptly last time out in a 130-105 loss at Toronto on Friday, but will now be ready to bounce back in a big way vs a Celtics side playing without injured Kyrie Irving. The Blazers have scored 100 points in 17 straight games, and matchup well here vs a side has suddenly become defensively deficient of late holding only 2 of their L/10 opponents to under 100 points.

The road team won both meetings last season and I expect another cover here by the visitors.


PORTLAND is 8-1 ATS L/9 on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.PORTLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.BOSTON is 6-17 ATS L/23 in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games.BOSTON is 18-34 ATS L/52 in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots.


Blazers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

Denver enters this game having played three straight grueling games, with their last game resulting in a last second 127-124 buzzer beater win vs Oklahoma City. Now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state, I'm betting they have problems dealing with a Golden State team that they may meet in the first round of the play offs. The Warriors also aware of the possible post season implications, will now take the  time I'm betting to deliver a message and knock down a fragile Nuggets group still dealing with confidence issues, after making a habit of squandering leads this season, including the win they took last time out. There is also a low possibility  , that the Warriors will not be prepared to play here tonight, as Denver has played them tough on occasion in the past including shocking them by 96-81 back on Dec 3 at home. With that said, I'm also betting the Warriors would love to shovel out some pay back here tonight and leave this building  and their fans in a shambles via  smack down performance.

 Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific.Road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.Warriors are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Denver.

Golden States SRS - is 8.21 vs Denver SRS - 0.50 .( Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.)

GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 ATS  L/19  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

NBA Road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 25-2 ATS L/21 seasons for a 92% conversion rare  winning SU by an average of 11.1 pgg.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover

Last night  Pacers came back from an 18-point first-half deficit to make the game tight, but ended up losing 133-126 to the Charlotte Hornets. What I took from that game, was how much of a flow the Pacers can get into when their running and gunning and how well they matchup vs a side the  76ers. With that said, I'm betting on the well conditioned PACERS continuing their flow vs a Philadelphia 76ers side  that has lost 4 of their L/5 road games SU  and also played last night .76ers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on no  rest.  Also add to that Indiana will have the added motivation, vs a Sixers side that took them out, by a 121-110 count back in November in Philly and you have a quality side situation to sink our teeth into.

76ers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Chalk is 8-2 ATS L/10 meetings in this series.

INDIANA is 27-13 ATS  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Indiana has won 3 straight at home in this series.PHILADELPHIA is 5-17 ATS L/22 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), poor ball handling team (16.5 TO's or more ) against a good ball handling team ( 14.5 TO's or less) are 9-31 SU L/21 seasons for a go against conversion  rate of 78% for bettors.

Play on the Pacers to cover

The last time these teams met, the Lakers took out the Nets by a  124-112 win  as former  Net  Lopez scored a season-high 34 points on 13 of 23 from the field and made six 3-pointers. From a matchup perspective I feel the Lakers once again have a viable opportunity to turn the trick again. It must be noted that Brooklyn  could easily also be in a letdown scenario here , after back to back  grueling division games, including an upset of the 76ers ast time out . BROOKLYN has crashed and burned consistently in the past after these type of affairs  as is  evident by their 1-12 ATS L/13 record in home games after 2 consecutive division games .

Lakers are 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Brooklyn

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. are 69-25 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 23-3 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover

The Pacers are coming off a 3-0 homestand that included a 105-96 victory over the Hornets on Monday night but despite of that momentum, this is a bad spot for them according to my reference power rankings and system vs system matchup projections. The home team also has the  added edge factored in for Coach Nate McMillan  not being behind the bench tonight for the Pacers because of  personal reasons.  The Hornets also have motivation on their side as they look to get revenge for a earlier loss to the Pacers this season. Actually in that loss the Hornets looked like the better team, when they pushed Dwight Howard to the front of their offensive attack and focused on him getting the ball. They floundered in the second half however, when they got away from that game plan and lost . But now tonight with the Pacers weaknesses exposed look for Howard once again be a focal and point and eventual catalyst in what I am betting will be  a Hornets win and cover .

Pacers are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Charlotte.Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

 NBA Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher 9-20 SU for go against 69% conversion rate for bettors over the last 5 seasons losing by an average of 4.4 ppg .

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home win are 60-18 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 7.1 ppg.

Play on Charlotte to cover

The Thunder have possibly put it all together as they have been surging of late. I'm not completely sold on their sudden reversal in fortunes just  yet, despite of the prognosticators and media shoveling their love for them down our proverbial throats. Hey guys, I'm not dumping on the  Thunder, because the big three of Westbrook, Melo, and George are true big times talents, I'm just throwing caution to the wind as their a lot of basketball to played this season, before a definite stance can be taken and in my opinion the jury is still out.  In their last trip to the hardwood Oklahoma City had  a 8 game win streak abruptly ended against Washington despite of the Wizards playing without John Wall, and in the recent past have proven themselves unreliable and inconsistent despite of their talent levels. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance, and back the young but talented Denver Nuggets to grab us some cash in the Mile High city tonight. It must be also noted that Oklahoma City has crashed and burned consistently after being cash cows for their backers for extended periods, as this trend indicates: OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-12 ATS   in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread . The Thunder have also not been able to take advantage of struggling defenses: OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-16 ATS  L/22 versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is also just  2-10 ATS  vs. division opponents this season. Thunder are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Northwest.Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest

NBA team vs the money line (DENVER) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) are 25-9 L/5 seasons SU for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Injury update: Nuggets C Nikola Jokic (ankle) is probable Thursday vs Oklahoma City.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

Philadelphia after a hot streak that saw them notch wins in 10 of 13 games,  have now lost back to back games including a  10-point loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday and a 12-point smack down at Milwaukee on Monday. I watched highlights from those game , and some shot clips, and the 76ers looked exhausted and are fade material here in their current form, even against a struggling side like Brooklyn, especially laying this much lumber on the road. Note: BROOKLYN is 13-4 ATS   versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season and 19-9 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season. BROOKLYN is 16-7 ATS  L/23 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season

I also betting on a motivated game from the Nets newest acquisition Okafor as he goes against his old teammates. His will to show his old team what he's truly worth  should spread and motivate the entire squad to a stronger than normal performance . Okafor a former No.3 pick with the Philadelphia 76ers was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last month, and has slowly been getting acclimated to his new teammates and is getting more minutes of late. This kid has talent, and despite of not working out in Philly is a steal in my opinion for the Nets.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - vs. division opponents, off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more 13-52 SU L/21 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

The Cavs,  for a team that is held in such high regard by NBA prognosticators, is a team that has not been fluent of late as their  5-8 record in January would indicate . This team needs some motivational therapy, as they are now a half game ahead of the  Heat for third place in the East. To make matters worse the team will have to play without all star Kevin Love who broke his  hand  in his last trip to the hardwood. However, the silver lining is that the Bulls will now be playing small ball for longer stretches , and when they go big with Jae Crowder ( 6-6) and bring Channing Frye off the bench they wont be easily intimidated by guys like Hassan Whiteside, and maybe more motivated in Love's absence ,which I'm betting actually helps them in the long run.  I recently began to believe going small for Cleveland would get them over this ugly slump their in, and now their going to be forced to do it. In their only meeting this season the Cavs beat the Heat 108-97 and lead by as much as 34 points , and now even with out a key cog in their lineup matchup well vs the Heat.

CLEVELAND is 8-0 ATS L/8  in home games after 2 consecutive division games  .MIAMI is 1-8 ATS  L/9 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season .

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 10-29 L/5 seasons for  ago against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in January games are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Houston at home this season, has played down to lower tier opponents like Orlando and have used these type of games , as resting points and live in game scrimmages. Resting key players for longer junctures of the game, and conserving their overall energy levels for foes they deem more important in  stature. This is an intelligent game plan, in a long in grueling season, but it provides an opening for a cover on a DD line. Note: HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS   as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and long term are is 17-37 ATS  L/54 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points.  I know Orlando does not inspire bettors , but they have been competitive of late, and have covered 6 of their L/7 overall

Houston is also just 5-18 ATS  L/23   in home games in non-conference games. Orlando is also 8-2 ATS on the road as non conference DD dogs.

NBA Home favorites (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 6-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

The Dallas Mavs enter this game desperate for a win after being losers of three in a row and six of the last seven, and are off a heart breaking 2 point loss to the Denver Nuggets last time out. The Heat are a fine team but with this being their 4th game in 7 nights will be on tired legs, and susceptible to down performance after playing 5 straight closely contested and grueling games. Dallas won the first meeting between these teams this season, but DALLAS is 32-17 ATS   revenging a same season loss vs opponent and are viable home dogs in this spot.

DALLAS is 13-4 ATS L/17  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.DALLAS is 20-11 ATS L/31 when playing against a team with a winning record this season.DALLAS is 33-18 ATS L/51 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 36-13 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

Minnesota is 12 games above .500 and 20-6 at home but the  Timberwolves have lost six of their last seven tilts on the road  and are weak favorites here as they look ahead to going against  the Toronto Raptors on their schedule for  tomorrow night . Meanwhile, Atlanta despite a lackluster record, in a rebuilding year, have been competitive for most of this season, despite of some recent lopsided setbacks. Minnesota is 8-11 against the East and Atlanta is 8-11 against the West and from a system to system and player to player standpoint  the Hawks matchup fairly decently vs the Wolves especially on their own home court.

MINNESOTA is 17-33 ATS  L/50 versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game .ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS  L/12 after 2 consecutive division games.ATLANTA is 16-7 ATS  after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season and is 13-5 ATS  L/18 in non-conference games this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, after allowing 105 points or more in a loss to a division rival are 29-12 SU L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

The visiting Charlotte Hornets enter this game with a 4-9-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 1-3-1 ATS in their L/5 strips to the hardwood. The Hornets are also just 3-9 away in  a 1 and 1 situation vs conference opposition. Meanwhile, their hosts the Pacers unlike some people, seem to like playing on Mondays as their 11-1 ATS mark  in their L/12 first games of the week would indicate . The Pacers from a betting perspective have also faired well against  NBA Southeast opposition cashing 8 of their L/10 meetings with the series host cashing 5 straight meetings and once again look like viable wagers.

CHARLOTTE is 14-25 ATS  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Indiana is 19-8 ATS  L/27 vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48%or better  on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 43-3 SU l/21 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 8.4 ppg.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

The Minnesota Wolves enter this game on a 2 game losing streak, and looked very lackluster on defense in the process, allowing 126 points to Golden State and 123 to Portland.  They looked tired for long stretches of those games, which is not a good omen headed into this game vs a well conditioned Brooklyn team that is tenacious and competitive.  In the  Nets last trip to the hardwood a 116-91 loss to the Bucks,  they had a rare ugly outing but that has been the exception in recent outings, as 11 of their last 14 games have been decided by six points or less,  and they have covered 12 of their L/15 overall. When these teams met on Jan 3 the Nets squeaked out a 98-97 win at home and actually matchup pretty well against the Wolves and get my support here getting points.

BROOKLYN is 13-3 ATS  L/16 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. BROOKLYN is 16-4 ATS  after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.MINNESOTA is 37-61 ATS  L/98 after allowing 120 points or more .MINNESOTA is 17-30 ATS  L/47 in non-conference games dating back to last season.

NBA Road underdogs (BROOKLYN) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 61-28 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

The LA Lakers enter this road tilt vs the Bulls  playing decently of late, winning 7 of their L/9 and have been especially good  at home, where they have won 6 straight games. However, you have to remember that this young Lakers team previous to their current top tier play, lost 9 straight , and have lost 15 of 21 road games and I currently feel still don't deserve a great deal of respect at this juncture of their campaign. Meanwhile, Chicago, in what has been tabbed as a rebuilding year, have surprisingly been tough to play against as is evident by covering 6 of their L/7 overall and 20 of their L/26 , and  13 of their 21 home tilts. After a bad outing against the 76ers last time out, I'm betting the Bulls will be primed to bounce back with a big effort here. Add to that the Bulls are also in revenge mode for a 103-94 loss at Staples back on Nov 21 and we have a fired up group to back in this spot play.

Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Lakers are 2-6 L/8 in Chicago.

Bulls are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Bulls are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog are 30-1 SU 21 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg, which qualifies this as solid ATS choice.

Underdogs vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 10-52 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors losing by an average of more than 8 ppg.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

 The Kings enter this game with a little momentum after they  snapped an eight-game losing streak Tuesday, by taking out  the Orlando Magic 105-99 in the visitors role. Meanwhile, the Heat are of an emotional close lose by a  99-90 count at the Houston Rockets on Monday. That game was very competitive  to the very end and a grueling conclusion to  a 5 game road trip , and will now have a Heat side that has not been home in 10 days, and still getting acclimated to their own digs again in a letdown spot. This makes the Heat vulnerable in my opinion, especially on a slightly bloated line. Hey folks, I know the Kings may not inspire bettors, but they are playing better overall ball as this season has progressed and found a spark plug Garrett Temple who had a career best 34 points last time out. His energy and professionalism/work ethic  are spreading through the Kings locker room and translating itself into a nice energy flow for his team. QUOTE: "Garrett has been a fantastic leader for us, and I couldn't be happier for him," Kings coach Dave Joerger told the media. "He is the ultimate professional. For him to have this type of night, I'm just tickled." END QUOTE.

The Heat are 0-10 ATS failing to cover by 5.4 ppg off a loss as a dog in which they led by double-digits.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest are 43-83 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The Pistons enter this game on a 5 game losing streak, and are now desperate to get back in the win column here at home in Motown this Wednesday night. Meanwhile, visiting Utah also continues to exhibit inconsistencies this season, and have lost 13 of their L/17 overall. Despite of both teams futility , one side stands out as being slightly superior from a matchup perspective and that is the home team according to my own player to player and system vs system matchup stats/data. In a contest of two struggling teams the lesser of two evils is the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons SRS is 0.36 ranking them 14th in the league while the Jazz SRS -0.43 ranking them 17th in the league. ( SRS
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average)

DETROIT is 11-3 ATS  in non-conference games this season.DETROIT is 15-5 ATS L/20 in home games off a upset loss as a favorite which happened last time out to Brooklyn 101-100.DETROIT is 12-2 ATS L/14 in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Pistons are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Northwest.

 UTAH is 27-42 ATS  as a road underdog over the last few seasons.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 2-25 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of loss coming by 10.1 ppg.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover

Cleveland and San Antonio are two teams that have been  under performing of late. But one team looks like they care and are working hard to get back on track, while the other( Cleveland ) despite of saying what's politically correct to the media , looks like their just going thorough the motions. The Cavs leader, LeBron James responses to media of late about his team performances (3-9 SU L/12) , have been  positive in nature, and despite of him saying he's playing as hard as ever,  its not translating onto the court, which  is a worrisome situation.  The Cavs biggest issue is one that makes you wonder if their a championship calibre team,  as  they have allowed 119.8 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood, and overall on the season rank 28th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, San Antonio are coming off a only their 4th loss at home this season last time out to Indiana, but are more than capable of bouncing back behind a defense, that is ranked No.1 in the league in points allowed and 2nd in defensive efficiency. With that said, the difference maker tonight I'm betting will come via the superior defense and coach ( Popovich).

CLEVELAND is 11-29 ATS  versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and is 4-15 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season .CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season and is 1-9 ATS  off a home loss by 10 points which happened against  Oklahoma City 148-124.

SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 ATS  in home games after playing a home game this season. SAN ANTONIO is 17-5 ATS L/22 in home games off a upset loss as a favorite which happened against Indiana last time out.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 63-28 L/ 21 seasons for 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-2 SU L/5 seasons, winning SU by 10.6 ppg for a 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover