After the five-time defending Western Conference champion Warriors were hammered at home by the Clippers 141-122 in the season opener, Golden State coach Steve Kerr said the performance was not "a one-off." Quote:"This is the reality," Kerr said. "There's going to be nights like this this year."End Quote: And the next night like that came at Oklahoma City on Sunday as the Thunder led by as many as 41 points in rolling to a 120-92 victory.

With the league now wanting to take advantage of a great franchise that took great joy and pounding opponents mercilessly over the last few years payback by their opponents is now at hand. 

Both these teams are still without a win this season, but New Orleans according to my projections has an edge here at home laying the short lumber.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 34-3 SU L/23 seasons with the combined average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

Kyrie Irving is fitting in well to his new home in Brooklyn  and followed up a top tier  50-point performance in his season debut by highlighting a late surge in the fourth quarter of Brooklyn's 113-109 win versus the New York Knicks on Friday night. According to my early season projections, Irving and the Nets matchup well here vs Memphis and are viable road favorites of 5 points or less.

MEMPHIS is 21-39 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.BROOKLYN is 53-32 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons .

Nets are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis. Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

The Warriors (0-1) and Thunder (0-2) are both still looking for their first wins. Golden State  lost  a 141-122 confrontation to the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma took season-opening losses at Utah and at home against Washington . Both rosters are vastly different from last season, but after watching some of key action from these games, I like the Thunder a little more at this point of the season, and believe they have an edge here on on home court this afternoon. 

The Warriors are 0-5 ATS L/5 as a favorite. Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 28-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

This is the NBAs version of the battle of NY, and it should be a good one, between the revamped NY Knicks and the up trending Brooklyn Nets. With Brooklyn off a heart breaking 127-126 OT loss last time out, Im betting they will be less energetic than the Knicks and easily suffering an emotional letdown. What Im betting here is the Knicks will play with passion and will not go down without a fight and advantageous line.

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Both Minnesota and Charlotte are coming off one point victories in their first games of the season.Minnesota won 127-126 in overtime against the Brooklyn Nets in New York while, the Hornets overcame a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit Wednesday in a 126-125 victory against the visiting Chicago Bulls. Im betting the Wolves game was more strenuous than the Hornets game, and they will be fresher and ready to compete here on their own home floor as underdogs. Note:MINNESOTA is 3-14 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 235 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Charlotte is 2-0 in the 2 most recent games here and 12-3 SU  L/15 as a host in this series and get my support to cover in this spot play.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

The Suns HC Williams has implemented a "no-stick" offensive philosophy that asks players to pass, dribble or shoot in five-tenths of a second. Rubio, Booker, Saric, re-signed free agent Kelly Oubre Jr. and Ayton are the expected starters , as he has the type of lineup that can implement his philosophy fully. I know how bad the Suns have been over the last few seasons, but Im betting on them to up trend. Tonight against a Sacramento Kings side, that is just 1-3 in their L/4 visits here Im siding with the Suns to get us the cover. 

Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Play on the Phoenix suns to cover 

There will be no Zion Williamson (knee injury) in the New Orleans lineup this Tuesday night in Toronto on opening night as the  Raptors begin the defense of their NBA championship. Because of this this we are getting a generous line to bet into with the visiting Pelicans. 

Despite of New Orleans not having Williamson in the lineup on opening night the proverbial cupboard is still not empty as top tier  veterans like Holiday and Favors, Redick still make this team a fairly formidable opponent, and with the key additions of up trending young talent like Ingram, Ball and Hart must not be discounted to be competitive vs a side that lost their key starter Kawhi Leonard to free agency in the off season and have no real individual big stars in their lineup. 

This Pelicans group has alot to prove after their super star Davis left town via trade, and especially now with Williamson down, and Im expecting them to play a big game tonight vs a side that could easily experience a championship hangover. 

Toronto is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.

 New Orleans is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road.

Road team is 23-6-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

NBA Home teams  (TORONTO) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, in non-conference games are just 49-61 SU L/5 seasons for a 44.5% win conversion rate. 

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Wrong or right my perception of the Raptors last win in this series vs the Bucks was an albatross event, and that the Bucks are the superior team in a bounce back situation after an embarrassing 18 point loss. It must be noted that the Bucks  lost just 7 games this season by 10 or more points . In the last  six losses, the Bucks went 6-0 ATS, covering by 12.8 points per game. Also from a league wide perspective teams like Milwaukee coming off a 10 point plus post season loss are 25-11 ATS in the followup game in the Conference Finals. In the last 14 seasons teams that have won at least two straight games entering a playoff game and are in the underdog role in their next game and it is between game 5 and 7 in a playoff series, the team on the two-game-plus winning streak is just 31-48-1 ATS.  

MILWAUKEE is 16-3 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season. MILWAUKEE is 10-1 ATS  off an upset loss as a road favorite this season. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 37-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1

The Raptors came out in game 3 of this series in desperation mode, and played like their play off lives depended on it, and still needed double OT to get barely get by the Bucks. After playing an exhausting 7 game series with the Sixers Im betting fatigue will now be in a factor for the Raptors and that they are at a disadvantage in game 4 here in Toronto because of that. Meanwhile, the Bucks are much fresher, and very ready to take advantage of the Dinos . It must be noted that no team in the NBA was better at rebounding of a loss this season than Milwaukee as is evident by going  22-1 SU  with a +15 ppg diff and 19-4 ATS  after a loss this season covering by an average of 7.6 ppg. Milwaukee is  20-6  ATS after allowing 115 points or more in their last game with the average ppg cover diff coming  by 6 ppg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

I have not been impressed by the way the Raptors have played in the play offs overall especially the Philadelphia series, and the 2nd game of this series when they lost by 22 points. However, there is enough talent and pride with guys like Kawhi Leonard, and hardcore work ethic from key character players like Siakam to produce a top tier effort in desperation mode here at home today. Note: The L/14 seasons home favorites like the Raptors that were defeated their previous game by double digits have gone 117-79-5 ATS in the playoffs.

MILWAUKEE is 7-21 ATS L/28  off 3 or more consecutive home wins .

Milwaukee is 0-23 ATS as a rested dog when they are off a win as a home favorite in which they shot better than 25% from the arc and are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio of better than 1.50.

NBA Home favorites (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 53-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

After squandering a gigantic lead last time out vs Golden State in game 2 in this series, I can see the Blazers in a classic emotional letdown situation. When you exert that much energy and play much better than anyone anticipated and still lose, a follow up effort could easily be more muted than many expect here in game 3. I know alot of pundits point out that the Warriors are vulnerable without Durant in the lineup. However,  it must be noted that the Warriors, play well together without Durant on the court, as they are 3-0 SU/ATS this season when he is out of the lineup, covering by more than 14 points per game, with all of the tilts coming on the road. Overall Durant is has been out, of the Warriors line 14 times since he came to Oakland and 5 of those games saw Steph Murray play, and guess what the Dubs were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in those tilts.

Kerr is 11-2 ATS in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. 

NBA team (PORTLAND) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-100 L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Raptors looked clumsy at best in their game 7 win vs the Philadelphia 76ers, and overall in that series. Overall, I believe both teams in that series, somehow effected the energy flow of each other in a negative way, which resulted in some of the ugliest basketball in this years playoffs. One thing did stand out to me in that above mentioned series, and that is the absolute dominance of Kawhi Leonard, and how he is a  top tier player and game changer at the height of his career . His efforts were key for the Dinos in the play offs so far and nothing will change tonight vs a rested but rusty Milwaukee team that  easily disposed of Boston in their last series victory. Im being careful here not to use any head to head matchup stats from the regular season, as the hoops that we will see tonight, wont be the same kind of hoops we have seen previously. I know the Raptors have a poor game 1 history in the play offs, but they did win game 1 vs Philly, and their still in game shape after a long series with the Sixers, while the inexperienced Bucks, are off a long lay off, and could easily start slow, which Im betting on a entire game basis effects their ability to cover, giving us value with the underdog Raptors. 

NBA Home favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last ten games are 11-43 .  ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

Philadelphia awoke from a 2 game slumber last time out in game 6, and forced a game 7 here in Toronto this Sunday. From the outset of this series I thought these teams were fairly evenly matched, and my thoughts have not changed. With that said, Im now betting we have value on the line getting points with Philadelphia in a game that  has a high probability according to my projections of being hard fought to the very end. 

TORONTO is 2-11 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.TORONTO is 4-15 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 77-58 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with the average margin deficit of those 135 games clicking in at 5 ppg.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2

Denver phenom Nikola Jokic continued  his top tier play with  25 points and 19 rebounds in Game 5 . The big man is averaging 26.4 points, 14.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists and controlling play while hes on the court.  His emergence into the associations list of up and comers and the good energy he creates for his hard working teams mates makes this Denver hard to beat in their current form and they get my backing again tonight to cover this spread. 

PORTLAND is 11-22 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.PORTLAND is 6-17 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. 

Play on Denver to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

It has become painfully obvious to Sixers backers over the last couple of games that the young men from the City of Brotherly Love,  are having issues dealing with the Raptors  super star Kawhi Leonard who is proving himself as the best player in this series.  Add to that the  sudden emergence of Kyle Lowry , as he finally is showing us he can play well in a play off environment and you have a situation that favors the Raptors to advance to the next round with a win tonight. Note: Leonard has become the fifth player in NBA history to register150 points, 30 rebounds and 15 assists through the first four games of a playoff series in NBA history, and Im betting he will be the difference maker in this spot. Note:  Since  the 2014-15, season, home underdogs in game 6  are 0-10 SU, losing by an average of 19.5 ppg. 

Philadelphias Embiid is averaging just 17 points and 7.6 rebounds in the series ( injuries, ailments, exhaustion, and lack of play off experience is key here )

76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.

NBA Home underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 14-44  ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The opening line on this game was -9.5 which is pretty accurate , and now because of public perceptions about Houstons ability to compete with Golden State a flurry of public money has lowered this line down to value level and Im now all over Golden State elevating their play here tonight in coming out here like their hair is on fire. Note:  NBA playoff teams  like the Rockets that won two straight games vs a one or a two seed to tie the series at two games are 0-8 ATS/SU L/8 times in game five with the average margin defeat coming by 17.4 ppg.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 55-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover 

 Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Denver has shown me they are the superior team in this series conflict with Portland thanks in part to a top tier defence, better open court shots, and a young man by the name of Jokic who is averaging 24.5 points per game, 12.5 assists, 9.3 assists and shooting better than 50% from the field, which are to this point the greatest numbers ever put up by a rookie in play off history. The big man logged alot of minutes last time out, but hes well conditioned and young, and more than capable of having another big game here at home in the Mile High City where the Nuggets have played their best hoops this season.

Portland has failed to cover 18 of their L/23 after a straight-up loss in the playoffs under HC Stotts. 

Trail Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Conference Semifinals games.

Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Conference Semifinals games.Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Nuggets are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. NBA Northwest.

Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a home loss are 63-19 L/5 seasons for a 77% SU conversion rate with the average ppg dif clicking in at +6.6 .

NBA Road underdogs (PORTLAND) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 8-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

These teams are pretty evenly matched according to my head to head power rankings . I know Joel Embiid looked horrible in the final half of the last quarter, and possibly single handily handed the Raptors the win in game 4 of this series , with ugly charity stripe shooting, turnovers, and very nervous and overall big man clumsiness, and his lack of being an experienced closer . Despite of all this he is very talented and being on the road should help him be more balanced. With that said,  Im betting the young man comes out here and adjusts , with a much better effort and leads his team to a cover.

Raptors are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Conference Semifinals games. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdogs are 41-22 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate .

Play on the 76ers to cover 

The Celtics have to come out of their defensive minded shell and compete with the Bucks, who just refuse to slow down. It's not like the Celtics don't have the fire power or determination to compete, and tonight I expect some adjustments that make them more aggressive offensively. Look for Kyrie Irving to come out of a 2 game shooting funk here and really put forward a top tier effort. 

BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.

Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.Celtics are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 19-79 SU L/5 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Im betting the Raptors are in trouble without the injured Siakam in the lineup here today in Philadelphia, especially in transition where he is one of the best in the league. It must be noted that Toronto has decreased its FG% conversion rare  by 4.7% margin with Siakam not playing . When Siakam is on the bench during  the these playoffs, the Raps are recording an Offensive Rating of 94.2 and an eFG% of 42.9%; they’ve been at 109.7 and 55.2% with him on the floor. The Raptors bench is weak, and volatile  and with the way Lowry continues to struggle, and the Dinos ultra dependence  Kawhi Leonard for offence, things just don't look good for them despite of being desperate for a win. 

During the L/5 play of seasons,sides that were defeated in  their previous game by 10 ppg or more and then are underdogs in their next playoff tilt have really let their betting backers down going  45-76-1 for a go  against 61% conversion rate on the spread .

NBA Road underdogs (TORONTO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 7-25 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

Golden State are still the odds on favs to win the NBA championship, and rightly so. I know Houston is one of the few teams that matchup well against the Warriors, but the Dubs are still the superior side, and are a dangerous road dog, making them my choice here tonight deep in the heart of Texas. Lots of value at this line.

Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. HOUSTON is 7-16 ATS  after allowing 115 points or more this season which was the case in the game 2 loss.

Play on Golden State to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

After a top tier performance in game 1 the Nuggets then looked fatigued in game 2 of this series vs the Blazers. Do I think 2 days rest, is enough for the the young men from Denver to get back the form they had against the Spurs and then in the first tilt of this series? Yes, I do and suggest we take the points. Note: Denver really struggled from beyond the arc in game 2  , converting on just 6 of 29 shots for a 20.7% conversion rate. It not all bad however, from a ATS perspective as teams over the L/14 seasons, who hit 21% or less of their down town attempts, were positive money earners cashing at 101-77-4 ATS clip in their follow up game.

PORTLAND is 6-14 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. 

Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
Nuggets are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The teams split games in Boston during the regular season, with the Celtics winning 117-113 in November and the Bucks prevailing 120-107 in December. But since the beginning of this season the Bucks have morphed into a power house in this league and must be respected here as road underdogs.  The Bucks started this series very slowly, but boy did they ever pick things up last time out with a dominating 123-102 victory, and Im betting they continue to surge here on the road where they have covered their L/4 as visitors overall. BOSTON is 5-15 ATS off a road loss this season and are fade material here. I just cant get over the fact of how the Celtics struggled for long periods of time this season, and how they have been bad bets at home of late, failing to cover 8 of their L/10 at home and 10 of their L/14 as home chalk. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The 76ers and the Raptors spilt the first two games of this series, in Toronto , but I feel the Raptors are better and deeper team, and have an edge here tonight in Philadelphia. Im not the only one who feels like this as is evident by the market shift and overall smart money that has steamed in on this  since the line was posted. 

TORONTO is 32-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. TORONTO is 33-17 ATS  vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

In the last 14 seasons teams that cashed an underdog in their last game, like the Sixers, are long term bad bets as is evident by going  176-208-8 ATS including 80-102-2 ATS when those same  sides play at hosts in their next tilt.

The Sixers are just 3-7 ATS after a SU win as an underdog, failing to cover by 5.9 points per game and this season after a SU win , the 76ers are a bankroll  depleting 22-33 ATS for their backers for a go against 60% conversion rate for opposing bettors. 

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.Raptors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Raptors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.Raptors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.Raptors are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 vs. NBA Atlantic.

76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - DEN Leads 1-0  

Denver after a long series against San Antonio kept their momentum alive in game 1 of this series vs Portland with a win. However, this Nuggets team must be tired and their fatigue could easily be a factor tonight against a motivated opponent that needs a win here to gain a split in this series. These teams are just to evenly matched from alot of perspectives that make me feel confident about taking points here. 

DENVER is 12-27 ATS  after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games.Trail Blazers are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Trail Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss.Trail Blazers are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.Trail Blazers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.

Nuggets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

The Rockets are one of the few teams in the NBA that matchup well against the Warriors.The Dubs squeezed past Houston in game 1 , but game 2 Im betting will see the Rockets be in a position to pull off an upset and more importantly cover the number for the 2nd straight time. Note: Golden State has failed to cover 11 of their L/18 ATS this season in that next home game, after a win  failing to cover the spread by 6.9 points per game

Golden St is 0-8 ATS L/8 at home off a tilt in which Steph Curry was not their high scorer,(which was the case in game 1) falling to over by an average of 19.38 ppg.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Celtics came in and upset the Bucks in game 1 of this series. It was in some ways surprising . In the past in the play offs the the Celtics were just 12-17 ATS as dog in their L/30 games as compared to being 19-3 ATS as a post season favorite. Both were rested for game 1 and both look similar to each other in some ways, but Im betting the difference maker in game 2 will be the Greek Freak Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 15-3 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season and is  18-4 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

My own projections and matchup stats suggest the Rockets matchup better than most teams in the west vs the defending NBA champion Dubs. Including the regular season and playoffs meetings, the Rockets are 8-6 SU against the Warriors over the last couple of seasons. After coming close to knocking off the champs in last year's Conference Finals, the Rockets will get their shot at redemption and will be primed to perform.

HOUSTON is 15-6 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season.

GOLDEN STATE is 11-24 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Play on Houston Rockets to cover 

Eastern Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The last time these teams played back in February the Bucks came out of that game with a 98-97 win, here in Milwaukee.  This Sunday afternoon Im expecting another hard fought game, in a tilt between combatants that know each other very well.  The Bucks have won 5 of the L/7 here straight up but the Celtics have cashed ATS in 5 of those games and Im recommending we take the points again in this spot.  

Im betting on the Celtics to implement small ball game plan here with Horford vs Lopez at the center of the attention  which will be key to aggravating the Bucks flow. Also with Malcolm Brogdon out for Milwaukee there is definitely room here and value with getting points with the Celtics. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-24 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

BOSTON is 19-8 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 15-7 ATS  against Central division opponents this season. 

Play on Boston to cover 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3 

I just don't like the flow the Spurs at this point of the season. The Spurs  shooting on the whole looks horrendous for the most part and Im also not impressed with their rebounding. The Spurs have not played well away from home all season long, garnering just 17 wins in 44 games, and have already lost 2 of the 3 games here in the Mile High City in this series. After watching the Spurs flail away in the first half of the last game before their desperation and home town fans buoyed them to a win in game 6 , with a 2nd half surge, it became obvious to me the more talented team behind  key technical players like  Nikola Jokic make this young Denver team a bad matchup for the Spurs. With that said, Im backing the Nuggets to deliver the cash on a cover here in game 7 and advance. 

DENVER is 12-4 ATS  in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.DENVER is 25-16 ATS as a home favorite this season. 

SAN ANTONIO is 8-18 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 11-21 ATS  after scoring 115 points or more this season.SAN ANTONIO is 16-29 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons

Spurs are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

 Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

The Warriors are the defending NBA champs and have a core of veteran players that know how to win big games and championships. I know the Warriors have looked lazy as they took the Clippers for granted especially in game 5. But  now wide awake and not wanting a game 7 look for this super star  Dubs team to shine through and get the win and more importantly as far as we are concerned the cover . The key and difference maker int his game  Im betting comes behind Greens defensive prowess around the rim. Golden State has won 7 of their L/8 visits to the Staples Center vs the Clippers and get the nod again. This is the biggest spread put on a NBA road play off game  in at least 14 seasons, but the Warriors despite of showing chinks in their armour are still capable of covering this number , and the linesmakers and smart money know it. 

In the last 14 seasons, double-digit underdogs in the NBA playoffs are  10-107 straight up. 

 GOLDEN STATE is 29-13 ATS  in the first round of the playoffs since 1996. 

Play on Golden St to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2

Denver looked good last time out, but this Spurs team has for some reason, struggled on the road this season, so I was not completely surprised  when they lost the key game 5 in the Mile High City.  The Spurs are 33-10 SU home this season and have an edge here on their own floor against almost anyone in this league. When the going gets tough having a guy like Popvich in your corner is a good thing . Note: The Spurs behind Popovich are bankroll expanding 30-17-2 ATS in Games 5-7. 

SAN ANTONIO is 24-5 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season and is 13-2 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. 

SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

. 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - HOU Leads 3-1

Harden and the Houston Rockets are not an easy team to play against, but Utah as time has gone in this series, look to be catching on to ways to slow this behemoth side down.  In game 3 they were the better team , and they still lost, but in game 4 they dominated and won . In the L/2 meetings of this series the Rockets have been held to a 35.2 % FG conversion rate, and  in game 4  the Rockets were held  to a 97.8 offensive rating as the Jazz owned the Rockets in the paint  while allowing them to convert just 47.6% around the rim. Here in game 5, I don't think the Jazz can do as much damage as last time, but their toughness and resiliency make them a viable side investment option at this number The public loves the Rockets and with all the money coming in on them you think the line would go the other way, but the books have chopped a half point off the opener knowing that contrarian market moves have been  coming in this tilt. I like our  edge here, and recommend we take the points with a side fighting for its play off lives.

D'Antoni is 18-35 ATS  in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. 

Play on Utah Jazz to cover

The Thunder showed  flashes of brilliance earlier this season, and even before the play offs started I looked at them as a possible dark horse contender. But in never ending chase for value and a readjustment on my estimated market price attached to them, I changed my opinion. The Thunder continue to struggle with their shooting , and they just dont look like they have an answer for McCollum and and Lillard and with Paul George struggling with nagging injuries and his  lack flow for long periods of time, it very much looks like their party is over. I know the public loves the Thunder, but there comes a time when illusion transgresses back into reality. 

PORTLAND is 11-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-15 ATS  after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less  TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 138-37 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with a point differential of 7.9 ppg clicking in! 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 55-12 L/22 seasons for 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average point diff clicking in at 8.8 ppg whihc qualifies as value on this spread. 

Portland to cover 

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - TOR Leads 3-1

 Since game 2 of this series the Raptors have absolutely dominated and dismantled the young Magic and Im betting nothing changes tonight in TO. The Raptors are cleaning the glass at a high rate, not allowing open 3s and just plain old showing us all how dangerous and deep they are. This matchup reminds me alot of the  lopsided Milwaukee /Detroit series . Note: The Raptors Net Rating +23.7 which is almost on par with the Bucks. 

TORONTO is 9-0 ATS  in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 15.8 ppg.

In the L/14 seasons, chalk  favored by double-digits in  Game 5 are 25-1 SU, with the average wining point diff clicking in at 14.4 points per game

Play on Toronto to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 3-0

The Jazz did everything possible to beat the Rockets last time out and they still lost. Now completely letdown the Jazz have to face a group that gives them alot of matchup difficulties and  their just not built to handle them. That's  why Im betting on a sweep here and for the Rockets to end this tonight. Note: Favorites with a  3-0 series lead in Game 4 are 24-17-1 ATS last 14 seasons.

Play on the Rockets to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - POR Leads 2-1

Thanks to Westbrooks great shooting in game 3 of this series, the Thunder muscled past the Blazers, as they played like their hair was on fire and also as a team shot at 50% with their treys. Now in a sort of a letdown scenario I expect Westbrook who is off one of his worst shooting years  from beyond the arc (29.3%)  to regress here, and to take his team with him .  Im betting on Damian Lillard to stand tall here for the Blazers and get us the cover.

Thunder are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.Thunder are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 Sunday games.Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.

PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS  on Sunday games this season. 

Play on Portland to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - TOR Leads 2-1

The Raptors have now won and completely controlled  back to back games in this series to take a 2-1 lead, and look like viable road favorites tonight to deliver the goods again vs a Orlando Magic side that is in a shooting funk for the first time since they made their late season run to the play offs. We have concurring momentum patterns forming, with the Magic slumping at the worst possible time, and the powerful Dinos finally starting to show their dominance. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 8-30 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

I know alot is being made of the DeMarcus Cousins injury, but from a defensive perspective thats a good thing for the Warriors. As for the Warriors offence they have more than enough guns , to make up for his absence and like I said, they now no longer have a defensive liability on the floor. 

I know the Clippers played a tremendous game last time out, and shocked the Warriors, but it must be noted that the Warriors are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in the game after a defeat when taking on  a Western Conference team in the playoffs. Overall the Dubs have cashed 13 of their L/18 on the road and can go from being up by a few points to DDs in the flash of an eye, so laying points with them here in a bounce back situation is not that scary a proposition vs a LA CLIPPERS team that is 2-11 ATS  in April games over the last 2 seasons with the point diff clicking in at -13.2 ppg.  

Play on Golden State to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 3-0

Boston can wrap this series up this Sunday, and thats what Im betting they do. The men from Bean town have owned the Pacers and nothing suggests anything will change today. I think some pundits are surprised the Celtics have righted their ship after a bumpy ride the end of their season, and Im not 100% sure that they can continue this type of play into the next series. But what i do know is that the Celtics matchup well vs a Pacers team that did not look cohesive entering the playoffs. Note:  INDIANA is 4-12 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Teams down 3-0 are 3-12 SU L/15 times dating back the 2016 season.

BOSTON is 12-1 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons which was the case in game 3 of this series. Boston is 6-1 L/7 here in Indiana . 

Play on Boston Celtics to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

This game and series between the Pistons and the Bucks is a complete mismatch, and the first two lopsided scores favoring Milwaukee were no flukes. No even home court advantage Im betting will save the Pistons from another beatdown.

MILWAUKEE is 7-0 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with the average margin of victory coming by 13 ppg.

MILWAUKEE is 8-1 ATS  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. 

MILWAUKEE is 14-3 ATS vs. division opponents this season with the average point differential clicking in at +13 ppg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The Raptors after losing game 1 came storming back with a convincing two way performance, crushing Orlando by a 111-82 count. After watching the Raptors dismantle, the Magic, Im betting the zig zag theory does not apply to this matchup. I know Orlando has had quite a 2nd half run ,but right now I feel the Dinos talent level and hunger for victory will trump what this young group has to offer.Note: NBA play off road favs are  30-11-1 against the spread over the last couple of seasons for a 73% conversion rate. I like this game alot and would bet it as high as -6. 

TORONTO is 33-19 ATS  in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 71-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raptors to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Denver may have found a way to win and cover in game 2 of this series, but San Antonio still looked like the better overall team, and deserve my backing here tonight. 

Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.

DENVER is 6-15 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season.

Spurs are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

SAN ANTONIO is 20-2 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. SAN ANTONIO is 6-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons in San Antonio.

SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. SAN ANTONIO is 16-5 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS  in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS  in home games against Northwest division opponents this season.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs . to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

This series is now tied 1-1 and swings back to Brooklyn in a more favorable environment for the Nets. The Nets stole game 1 before the Sixers stormed back in game 2 and won in convincing fashion.Now on a couple of days rest the Nets will now be ready to rebound. Note: The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games on two days of rest. During the regular season, Philadelphia was 20-21 as visitors, while Brooklyn was 23-18 as hosts and have the edge here getting points. 

In the last 13 + seasons, teams like theNets that allowed 125 or more points in a loss have gone 28-18 (61%) ATS in the playoffs

BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.PHILADELPHIA is 19-32 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more 41-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Celtics prevailed 84-74 in the best-of-7 opener.The Pacers, meanwhile, have rallied to win the series on two of the last three occasions when they lost Game 1 so Im not counting them out from the game 1 preview and still believe they have what it takes to compete. 

INDIANA is 15-7 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.McMillan is 20-7 ATS in April games as the coach of INDIANA. 

The Pacers are 17-0 ATS covering by more than 10 ppg in the playoffs off a loss in which they had a BAP at least 9.5 points higher than their opponent and were 13-4 SU with none of the 4 SU losses coming by more than 6 points.

NBA  team (BOSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 85 points or less are 34-65 ATS L/5 seasons for ago against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

 Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - SAS Leads 1-0

Denver lost a101-96 decision to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the Western Conference quarterfinal series thanks to some atrocious shooting by key players. Note:The Nuggets  shot just 42% from the field and 6-of-28 from 3 and still almost won. Now in  a must-win situation for Denver as; (a loss drops the No. 2 seed in an 0-2 hole heading back to San Antonio for two games ) Im betting the Nuggets young guns nerves now settled  come out here and play like nbnbtheir hairs on fire and get us the win and cover.

NBA  play off seeds (1-3) have historically hit a 58%  conversion rate when playing as a home favorite after a loss and non-cover.

SAN ANTONIO is 8-18 ATS  in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 12-3 ATS  in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. 

Play onDenver Nuggets

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

In true zig zag theory Im going to take the points here with the LA Clippers on a value spread. I know Golden State has owned this series of late, but I saw enough from them in game 1 to feel comfortable taking points with them here in game 2. 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-27 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 23-10 ATS  vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 14-5 ATS off a road loss this season.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a loss against a division rival are 94-47 ATS L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent offensive team (102 r more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102r more PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more are  60-90 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The last playoff series to tip off in the NBA’s first round is the No. 5 Utah Jazz visiting the No. 4 Houston Rockets in the Western Conference on Sunday night. 

This is a rematch from last season’s Western Conference semifinals.  . The Rockets took the series  in five games, with every game in the series decided by at least eight points and Im betting this game will follow suit. Im betting on the Rockets super star  Harden who led the league in scoring at 36.1 ppg, more than 8 points better than No. 2 Paul George to once again lead the way . Note: Harden’s average is the most since Michael Jordan’s 37.1 in 1986-87.

NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)are 17-62 ATS L/22 seasons for a  go against 79% conversion rate. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 4-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover 

Im expecting the Toronto Raptors to shut the Orlando Magic down today, on their way to a DD win. Toronto after recent early departures from the play offs  have a huge chip on their shoulders and will be out to get some real momentum going. ( LATE STEAM)

Magic are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.

NBA Underdogs (ORLANDO) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 17-45 L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto Raptors to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

Brooklyn has come along way and are now in the play offs, for the first time in a very long time, and Im betting they will be sky high here and leave everything on the floor here in game 1. I know the Nets dont have much play off experience but it must be noted  that  During the last 13 seasons, road teams without playoff experience are 74-47-4 (61.2%) ATS in the first round when taking on  an opponent that made the postseason the year before. Meanwhile, Philadelphia enters these play offs suffering with a few nagging injuries to key players Joel Embiid(knee)  and Jimmy Butler (back) and could find themselves in a real battle. Note: During their meetings in the  regular season, the Nets outscored the 76ers by 40 points in 58 minutes with Embiid off the floor. 

Nets have the deeper bench  in this series and get the nod from me to cover in game 1.

Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Nets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.Nets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.Nets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic.

 76ers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Atlantic.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Home underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 19-44 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  70% conversion rate.

Brooklyn to cover 

The Bucks' playoff position is set as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they'll sit Most Valuable Player candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo and starting center Brook Lopez to prepare for the playoffs , thus the advantage goes to the Thunder to get us the cover. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a game where they covered the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 105-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Hawks will play an Indiana team with little left to play  for after locking up a play off spot and that could be resting a majority of their starters here tonight in Atlanta as they try to stay healthy and fresh for the play offs. Atlanta has been one of the best teams down the stretch drive and have shown a lot of promise for next season and are motivated to give their fans a good send off this evening.ATLANTA is 20-11 ATS  in the second half of the season this season. 

Play on Atlanta Hawks to cover 

Houston broke its own NBA record by making 27 3-pointers in Sunday's 149-113 home victory over the Phoenix Suns and enter this game with a full head of steam and ready to keep their momentum in high gear entering the play offs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City despite of needing to ramp things up, are struggling in alot of facets of their game, and after watching them barely get past Minnesota last time out, Im betting their over matched vs an explosive opponent. 

HOUSTON is 15-7 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less this season.

Play on Houston Rockets to cover 

The Utah Jazz were piling up  victories and creating momentum for the postseason until  the lowly LA Lakers upset them by out working them. Needless to say coach Quinn  Snyder was left irate. Now Im betting the Jazz coming out here with a big time effort and bounce back vs the Denver Nuggets a team they have beaten 8 straight times and matchup well against. 

UTAH is 20-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. 

NBA Underdogs (DENVER) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 17-61 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. ( Denver lost at Portland last time out but covered)

Play on Utah to cover 

Minnesota is depleted with injuries, and the Raptors despite of rapping up their play off spot, are still trying to enter the playoffs with momentum, and should be well prepared to lay down a beatdown here. 

NBA  road favorites like Toronto between -3 and -10 points on the spread averaging 99+ points per game are 90-44-3 ATS L/137 for a 67.2% conversion rate after allowing 55 or more points in the first half of their last two games.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 4-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Despite losing four straight games, the Detroit Pistons sit in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and need a win badly here and should come out ready to perform vs a Grizzlies side most likely playing out the string. 

Pistons HC Casey is 15-3 ATS  in home games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached in his career. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 4-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

The home team has won each meeting this season , with the Pelicans winning 149-129 on Oct. 19 in New Orleans and the Kings winning 122-117 on Dec. 23 in Sacramento. Im betting on the home team giving their fans something to cheer about here in their home finale as they try to finish the season at .500. 

SACRAMENTO is 9-0 ATS  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season with the average point differential clicking in at 14 ppg.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 3-27 ATS for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average point diff clicking in at 13.9 ppg. 

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover 

With Toronto firmly gripping on the No.2 seed in the East its all about staying healthy. Meanwhile, Miami have lost  three straight games to fall out of playoff position in the Eastern Conference and desperately need a win  and will play like their hair is on fore here this afternoon. 

MIAMI is 7-0 ATS in road games against Atlantic division opponents this season.

MIAMI is 21-9 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Heat are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Heat are 45-17-2 ATS in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Heat are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games.Heat are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Heat are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.

Raptors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.Raptors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Southeast.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.

Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Toronto.Heat are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Toronto is 9-24-1 ATS at home in non-division game.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 68-115 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rte for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

When the NBA playoffs start next week, the Milwaukee Bucks know they will have home-court advantage throughout so resting players and making sure their healthy is more important than winning this game tonight against the visiting Brooklyn Nets who are desperate for wins as their quest for a post season spot is still up for grabs.The most recent meeting was Monday in Brooklyn when the Bucks led by 15 after the first quarter and posted a 131-121 win.but Im betting all out do or die effort from the Nets here. 

BROOKLYN is 11-3 ATS  in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. 

BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24  or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

The Sacramento Kings are geared up to halt a stretch of 12 straight losing seasons and Im betting they will play hard tonight and get is the cover vs the banged up  Utah Jazz who are dealing with a boatload full of injuries and may limit key player minutes tonight in attempt to get healthy with the play offs approaching. 

PG] 04/05/2019 - Raul Neto is "?" Friday vs Sacramento ( Ankle )[G] 04/04/2019 - Kyle Korver is downgraded to OUT Friday vs Sacramento ( Knee )[SF] 04/04/2019 - Jae Crowder is upgraded to probable Friday vs Sacramento ( Thigh )[F] 04/04/2019 - Derrick Favors is downgraded to OUT Friday vs Sacramento ( Back )[PG] 04/03/2019 - Ricky Rubio is "?" Friday vs Sacramento ( Hamstring )[PG] 03/18/2019 - Dante Exum is out indefinitely ( Knee )

UTAH is 1-9 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.SACRAMENTO is 10-1 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

Toronto  has won five consecutive games since Lamb banked in a half-court heave at the buzzer for a 115-114 victory on March 24 and continue to ramp for the play offs against a team that is exhausted as they have feverishly chased a play off spot and off a 4 game road trip . I know Toronto can afford to take the pedal of metal , but their trying to stay in high gear entering the play offs and are in revenge mode for a 115-114 loss they suffered to the Hornets at home back in late March and will be ready to make their opponents pay here, especially knowing how desperate the Hornets are for wins. 

CHARLOTTE is 4-20 ATS  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a road win are 71-38 ATS L/5 seasons for 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto Raptors 

The Rockets and Clippers are two of the hottest teams heading down the stretch of the regular season with Los Angeles going 16-4 in their past 20 games and Houston winning 17 of the their past 20 games. However, from a head to matchup perspective my own power rankings like the Rockets to deliver a winning ticket for us tonight. I know the  Clippers won 115-112 on Oct. 21 in Los Angeles and Oct. 26 in Houston, the Clippers won by 20, 133-113 , but now with revenge on board Im betting on a primo effort from the Rockets.Note:HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Dallas looks like they have stopped tanking, and have won 2 straight games, and well positioned  to make it 3 wins in a row vs a Minnesota group that has not played well on the road this season going 10-29 SU.  Dallas also won both games in this series this season. 

DALLAS is 12-3 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. MINNESOTA is 2-14 ATS  in road games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. 

Timberwolves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Timberwolves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Timberwolves are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 13-36  ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Dallas to cover 

The Hornets  are 0-3 on a road trip that concludes Wednesday night in New Orleans with Charlotte's playoff hopes hanging by a thread . Needless to say they are desperate for a win and tonight I expect they leave everything on the floor and get us the cover. 

CHARLOTTE is 13-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

NEW ORLEANS is 4-12 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. 

NBA Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more, in April games are 15-42 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate! 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

The young Atlanta Hawks are playing hard, and showing promise for the future behind emerging super star Trae Young . Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just trying to stay healthy before the play offs begin, and tonight will be without  star Joel Embiid is OUT next 2 games ( Rest )and the banged up Jimmy Butler .  Note:The Hawks are 2-1 against the 76ers this season, including a 129-127 home victory on March 23, when Young had 32 points and 11 assists. QUOTE :"We clipped Philly last time, so I'm sure they are going to come in with a little bit of vengeance," Bazemore said on Fox Sports Southeast."With a couple of games left in the season, they are trying to be in the best position they can. At the same time, we're still trying to play spoiler and have a bunch of guys finish the season strong." END QUOTE.

Im betting Philly despite fo wanting revenge, still wont come out here with guns blazing as the bigger picture is more important. Look for Atlanta to hold serve and get us the cover.

Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

76ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Lakers come in here as big underdogs as they play without  LeBron James who has been shut down for the season, with an injury. However, the Lakers look like they have some fight left in them as they come in here off a win vs the New Orleans Pelicans last time out by DDs. Note: James is also expected to be on the bench as sort of an assistant coach, which is a huge motivation for this young group.   Meanwhile, the inconsistent  Thunder maybe getting to much respect in this spot,  as they are just 11-13 against the eight non-playoff teams in the Western Conference this season,  with 4 of their wins coming against the downtrodden Phoenix Suns. Note:Russell Westbrook had a triple-double last time out, but his team has fallen flat on their faces the L/7 times this has happened losing 6 times straight up and winning the lone game by 1 point.

Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Thunder are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

 Chicago are a group of walking wounded and hobbled athletes just trying to make to the end of what has been a frustrating rebuilding  season. I know the Knicks are not much better, but they are a healthier group playing on their own home floor and have an edge in this matchup between bottom feeders. This is a side option based on the lesser of two evils concept. 

NBA Favorites (NEW YORK) - off 2 or more consecutive home losses, in April games are 51-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate! 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

The Bucks played last night so they're a little tired. It must also be noted that Kris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo are questionable for Milwaukee tonight and if they do play Im betting they may not see that much time as the Bucks are more interested in staying rested and healthy as the play offs approach. Note:  

Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

, their hosts the Brooklyn Nets, every game left is like a playoff game, as they are in a fight for the final play off spot in the East. QUOTE:"I (said) at the end of the Philly game, every game is going to be worth it," the Nets' D'Angelo Russell said. "We need it -- scratching and clawing for every one of them. END QUOTE.

Milwaukee Beat Brooklyn by DD here in NYC back in February which will have the Nets not only desperate but in revenge mode.

BROOKLYN is 15-4 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

 Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

The San Antonio Spurs have secured a spot in the playoffs for the NBA-record-tying 22nd consecutive year, and there is no longer and urgency attached to their work, despite of still needing better seeding . Meanwhile, Sacramento has defeated the Spurs in both meetings this year and have shown they matchup well in this series, and very much look like viable underdogs in this spot. 

SACRAMENTO is 23-9 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.SAN ANTONIO is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

The Spurs are 0-17 ATS with 2+ days' rest when they are off a game as a home fav in which they scored 27.5%+ of their points from 3s and had a BAP of less than 75%. 

NBA Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 13-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

The Bucks won the first meeting in this series this season in  Milwaukee 144-112 and smashed the Hawks 133-114 in the rematch in Atlanta. The Bucks have won six straight games against Atlanta and Im betting on more of the same one sided action here today against an Atlanta side the Bucks matchup very well against. 

The Bucks are 22-0 ATS as a road favorite after a game in which they rebounded less than 20% of their own misses and committed fewer than 22 fouls. 

The Hawks are 0-17 ATS /0-17 SU L/17 as a 8+ dog with less than two days rest off a game as a dog after scoring 14.5 or more points less than Vegas projected.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

The Raptors look to be coasting to the finish line, as they reserve energy for the post season as they rest players. Tonight I expect the banged up Bulls, despite of being short handed to stay close enough to get us the cover as home dogs vs what could easily be a disinterested opponent. 

The Raptors are 0-12 ATS  after a game as a road favorite in which they were outscored in the paint by double-digits which happened last time out at NY vs the Knicks. 

The Rockets after losing last time out  to the Milwaukee Bucks  dropped four games behind the Denver Nuggets for the second seed in the Western Conference, and now will be primed for a big bounce back effort here at home against a team they have beaten 5 straight times at home. 

DENVER is 11-23 ATS against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.DENVER is 10-21 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 10-1 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.

Play on Houston to cover ( LATE STEAM)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have not been playing well for over a month now, but they have shown some flashes of brilliance and must not be underestimated to win and cover tonight vs  Indiana team that embarrassed them the last time the teams met, as they blew a 19 point lead and loss . Now with redemption at hand , Im expecting a rallying call vs a  Pacers side that has struggled on the road of late, dropping eight consecutive games away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse.  Im now betting in an effort to get rid of the  sting of that  above mentioned ugly loss the Thunder will be primed to get redemption. 

INDIANA is 3-11 ATS ( in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (INDIANA) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 9-60 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin point differential coming by-9.6 ppg. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in March game are 38-6 SU L/5  seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by +9.4 ppg. 

Oklahoma City to cover 

Two rebuilding teams with no play off expectations g head to head tonight in the Bayou.   Atlanta has won two consecutive games against playoff teams and New Orleans has lost two consecutive games against playoff contenders.The Pelicans have lost eight of their last nine games, including a 128-116 loss to the Hawks on March 10 in Atlanta.Meanwhile, Atlanta is off two huge upset wins vs Utah and Philadelphia last time out by a 129-127 mark, and Im betting now will be in a huge let down spot. Note: NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - lower tier defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 63-115 ATS L/22 seasons for a 65% long term go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Also NBA team vs the money line (ATLANTA) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog, on Tuesday nights are 5-26 SU 22 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate. I know the Pelicans dont have alot to play for but taking out another young team that has pulled off some upsets will be a ego boost for them and Im betting they play a motivated game here and get the win and cover.

Play on New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The Orlando Magic, visit the Miami Heat on Tuesday night in a game with serious playoff implications and that Im betting will be a hard fought affair that makes taking the points golden. The Magic showed their prowess last night in a win vs Philadelphia at home in the Magic kingdom and will be primed to keep rolling tonight in their quest for a play off spot. Orlando currently on a 5 game win streak, are 4-1 SU/ATS in their L/5 visits to South Florida and get my support in this spot. 

Heat are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Heat are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Southeast.Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Tuesday games.

Play on Orlando to cover 

Orlando has won 4 straight home games during their current 5 game home stand. Im betting that tonight against Philadelphia in their 5th straight home game, that the wrong team is favored. I . know the Sixers have the better record and the higher profile player personell but the Magic are playing great cohesive basketball and exhibiting a great deal of chemistry and deserve respect here defending home court against the Sixers side, that is just 17-18 ATS overall on the road this season. It must also be noted that the Sixers are off a exhausting back and forth tilt vs the at Atlanta last time out that they looked a little tanked in from the start. 

ORLANDO is 11-3 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents this season. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after scoring 110 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 36-63 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover 

The Heat Marched into San Antonio and ended the Spurs 9 game home winning streak last time out, and  have shown a propensity to be dangerous in the followup  as they are  12-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. The Heat should also be wide awake after   the Bucks  came back from 20 points at half time last week and win by a 113-98 count and will be in revenge mode and looking . for redemption for that embarrassment ( . Note: MIAMI is 13-3 ATS  in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. I waited around for most of the day looking for +9 to show back up again, but to much sharp money coming in is sinking this number to the 8.5 to 8 range. Still plenty of value here with the Heat in their current form against a Milwaukee Bucks team that will be careful with their super star the Greek Freak (  Giannis Antetokounmpo) is suffering with a nagging ankle injury. 

MIAMI is 22-10 ATS  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and is 12-4 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-22 ATS  in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA team (MIAMI) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 59-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

Im one of those guys who   believes that the Oklahoma City Thunder have what it takes to hang with the best teams from both the west and the eastern conferences despite of a downturn of late and are worth of us laying points with them here tonight vs the Toronto Raptors.

Note: The Raptors are off a 128 -92 beatdown which is not a good omen for their chances here tonight vs a side trying to recalibrate and are desperate for positive momentum before the reg season winds down. 

Raptors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.Raptors are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

TORONTO is 3-13 ATS  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. TORONTO is 11-21 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.The Raptors are 4-27 ATS L/31 with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging more than 12 offensive rebounds. 

NBA Favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 32-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's are 124-32 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average point diff of 9.4 ppg. 

Play on Oklahoma city to cover 

 Washington defeated the Bulls  134-125  at Chicago last month and Im betting on a repeat performance tonight as they chase a play off birth in desperation mode.  The Wizards cannot afford losses .  Meanwhile, the Bulls are off a win last time out vs the Suns, but that not a great omen for them here as CHICAGO is 1-10 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. 

CHICAGO is also  2-10 ATS L/12 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season and a 4-13 ATS L/17 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.

Play on the Wash Wizards to cover 

Atlanta is one of the few teams that has had some  success in "slowing" Houston's James Harden. With Harden a little banged up after straining his neck again in last trip to the hardwood, the young Hawks could find a way to slow him again, which will give them a strong chance at covering as home dogs in this spot.The Hawks explosive offence has averaged 123.1 points in their first 12 games since the All-Star Game, but only 91 on Sunday, but Im betting they bounce back here in this spot play. 

HOUSTON is 8-20 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons and is 4-12 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.HOUSTON is 6-14 ATS  as a road favorite this season. Atlanta has covered 14 of the L/20 meetings between these franchises. 

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 31-10 ATS L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Bulls defeated Phoenix 124-116 on Nov. 21 as hosts. LaVine scored 29 points for Chicago and according to my power rankings matches up very  well vs the Suns. The Suns are 0-12-1 ATS (/0-13 SU off a win as a road dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road. NBA favorites (PHOENIX) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 73-121 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. ( Suns beat Pelicans in OT last time out on the road)

PHOENIX is 1-8 ATS  in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.

CHICAGO is 21-8 ATS  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Spurs have won 10 straight at home and are a season-best 12 games over .500 and are viable bets here as hosts in their current form, yes even against the defending Golden State Warriors.The Spurs and Warriors have split their two meetings this season, with both winning at home and Im betting the host side will hold serve again. SAN ANTONIO is 25-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season and s 21-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and 21-3 revenging a road loss overall  and also 8-1 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. (GS beat SA at home on Jan 6 141-102 in merciless fashion and now pay back is at hand)

GOLDEN STATE is 9-25 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 0-13 ATS /1-12 SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game with the lone win coming by 1 point.The Warriors are 1-17-1 ATS /2-17 SU on the road with rest off a game as a dog in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field.

SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. 

Play on the San Antonio spurs to cover 

Two struggling teams go head to head this afternoon as the Knicks enter this home game on a 8 game losing streak as they take on a Lakers side with losses in 7 of their L/8 games overall. The Lakers despite of probably having super star LeBron James in the lineup for this game are on tired legs now playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, and in their last effort they were short handed and had to play everybody and use up alot of minutes. Im now betting the fatigue factor makes the Lakers less than stable underdog on this line this afternoon.

Lakers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in New York.

Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.EW YORK is 14-3 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons.

Lakers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Lakers are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. Eastern Conference. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.Walton is 8-19 ATS  in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days as the coach of LA LAKERS.

The Lakers are 0-11 ATS L/11 on the road with rest off a loss in a road game in which they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter.The Lakers are 0-9 ATS L/9 (/SU with less than two days rest after they scored more than 50 points in the paint.

LA LAKERS are 9-22 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record this season. LA LAKERS are 4-15 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 28-19 SU for a 60% conversion rate over the 5 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - off a road loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 10-30 SU L/40 with a -7.6 differential. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

Even though Zach Lavine is expected back in the lineup for the Bulls tonight Im not sold on them being any less than 10 point dog here and Im betting we have value on the line with the explosive home team in this spot play at anything under DDs. 

LA CLIPPERS are 14-3 ATS  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season. LA CLIPPERS are 17-4 ATS  versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 12.8 ppg.

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

The Blazers are a fine team but are getting way to much respect here and the value rests with the New Orleans Hornets as home dogs. You have to remember that the Blazers are below 500 road team with a 16-17 record while the Pelicans are a above 500 home team with a 18-15 record. I know Jrue Holiday is out for the Pelicans, but they're are young guys like Elfrid Payton who have stood tall thanks as is evident by a triple double  in his L/2 trips to the hardwood. With that said, Im recommending we take the points. 

Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.

NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 ATS  off a home loss this season.NEW ORLEANS is 15-7 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Pelicans are 18-2-1 ATS L/20 at home off a loss in which their opponent made at least 10 more free throws.

PORTLAND is 8-19 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons and is 3-13 ATS  in road games off a road blowout win by 20 points or more. 

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Dallas has lost six straight and 11 of 12 and I personally dont like their current form.Dallas had more adversity Wednesday when its flight to Denver was delayed by a snowstorm, dubbed the "bomb cyclone" blew through Colorado and will now be completely exhausted entering this game and could easily end up on the wrong end of a ugly DD beatdown. Also star euro Doncics is also hobbled and if he plays could be hobbled. With that said, Im going to lay DDs here in a contest that does not favor visiting Dallas in the the thin air of the  Mile High City tonight. 

DENVER is 17-4 ATS  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with the average point diff clicking in at 11.7 ppg.

NBA Road underdogs of +375 or higher vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in March games are 1-82 SU L/22 seasons for a99%conversion rate with the average score diff clicking in at 13.5 ppg. 

Play on Denver to cover 

The Raptors,are off getting manhandled by the Cleveland last time out by a  126-101 count and lost Serge Ibaka to a three-game suspension for a fight during the game. He is a key cog in this teams flow and Im betting it will directly effect their ability to cover the number vs a Lakers squad looking for positives despite of having LeBron James healthy and in the lineup. The Raps Kyle Lowry will play, despite of some nagging injuries ,  but  overall he has looked distracted lately and has constantly been arguing with referees.Im betting his negative mood will have a direct effect on his teammates. 

The Lakers are 12-1 ATS L/12 off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.LA LAKERS are 9-1 ATS n road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons

The Raptors are 0-10 ATS at home with rest off a road game in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes. TORONTO is 12-23 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Heat are off a down effort last time out against vs the Raptors which ended a 4 game win streak. Tonight vs the visiting crew from Motown Im betting the Heat bounce back in what is  a more favourable matchup, behind a third ranked D and an offence that is virtually equal with that of the Pistons.  MIAMI is 21-8 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and  are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record like the Pistons.

The Heat are 12-0-1 ATS /13-0 SU as a favorite off a loss in a home game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers. 

The Pistons are 3-21 ATS  and 0-24 SU L/24 as a road dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss as a dog in which they scored fewer than 85 point

DETROIT is 3-11 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. DETROIT is 8-22 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 21-9 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.  

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 27-6 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

Memphis turned over a lot of its roster at the deadline, it has gone 5-4 since the All-Star Game and has won four of its last five and deserves our attention here vs the young Atlanta Hawks. With key Grizzlies Cog Conley having performed well in the past vs the  Hawks averaging 15.6 points and 7.1 assists in 17 career games against the Hawks I look for him to be the catalyst for a Memphis win and cover here tonight.Memphis won the first meeting 131-117 in October and get the nod again. Hey I know perceptions and sometimes be powerful, and alot like the way the young Hawks have played, but they are still highly inconsistent and not a viable bet in spots like this as they are coming off a home win vs a New Orelans team that has given up on their season. Note: ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this seasonATLANTA is 4-16 ATS  in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons and is 9-23 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. 

The Grizzlies are 12-0 ATS /SUwith rest off a win as a favorite in which they had at least 25% of their points from free throws. 

NBA Home teams (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games are 20-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 

Dallas has lost 5 straight and San Antonio has won 5 straight. But current form usually goes out the window when these instate NBA rivals go to head. In recent meetings the Spurs have failed to cover 8 straight meetings vs the Mavs when they are not getting points like tonight. With Dallas out looking for same season double revenge in this series Im betting they will be highly motivated . Note:Dallas’14-3 ATS as a underdog in this series when playing with same- season double revenge. 

The Mavericks are 23-3 ATS/22-4 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range.

The Spurs are 2-16 ATS with rest when they won 2 straight vs current opponent and are 0-10 ATS when they won 3 straight vs current opponent.

Play on Dallas to cover 

From what Ive seen from the Knicks of late tells me a story of a team that is in tank mode and has no fight left in them at all. It looks very much like the famous swan dive for draft picks is on. With that said, Im going to do something that I do on  the rare occasion and that is to lay DDs with the more motivated team the  Indiana Pacers. Note: INDIANA is 8-0 ATS  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or less - 2nd half of the season this season with the average victory coming by 15.8 ppg.

Indiana took out the Knicks on Jan 11 at MSG by a 121 -106 count and a similar score is not out of the question in the rematch.

The Knicks are 0-13 ATS/SU as a 8+ dog with less than two days rest off a loss as a road dog in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws with every loss coming by more than this asking price

The Knicks are 0-13 ATS/SU on the road after a game as a road dog in which they had less than 10% of their points from free throws with the average point diff clicking in at -13.5 ppg. 

The Knicks are 0-12 ATS/SU with less than two days rest off a loss as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebound with the average point diff clicking in at -16.1 ppg. 

NBA Road underdogs of +375 or higher vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in March games are 1-80 SU  L/22 seasons with the combined average point diff clicking in at -13.9 ppg. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

Boston after a slump looks to be back in gear as the season winds and down and are currently a very dangerous opponent for all comers and  especially vs a inconsistent Clippers team that they will be out to beat on here in revenge mode.Note: Boston lost to the Clippers 123-112  in Boston as 11.5-point chalk  in February when they were slumping and now have pay back on board. 

LA is just 2-8 ATSL/10 at home vs Atlantic Division sides.

BOSTON is 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. BOSTON is 37-21 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Celtics are 12-0 ATS with rest off a 10+ win as a favorite in which they had 30+ assists.

Rivers is 18-34 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA CLIPPERS. 

NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off 3 or more consecutive road wins are 56-21 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

 NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA CLIPPERS) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 19-45  ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Utah is off a loss vs a up trending Memphis team last time out, as they probably made the mistake of over looking them. Note :The Jazz are 13-0 ATS/SU as a favorite off a loss with each game coming in convincing fashion with the average point differential clicking in at 20 ppg. Now in rebound mode, and ready for redemption the Jazz look like good bets at home as short chalk to take out a struggling Oklahoma City. Thunder team that has failed to cover  9 of their L/10 . Yes, the Thunder had 3 wins during this ATS nightmare run, with one win coming in OT vs. the Blazers,  one against Memphis in a late ferocious comeback and  a 1 point OT win that the Jazz blew numerous opportunities in. So with the Jazz looking fro revenge and redemption right here on their own floor where they are 21-11 SU this season they look very much like viable short favs. 

 NBA Home teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 83-32 SU L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors with the average point diff clicking in at +6.8 ppg.

Play on Utah to cover 

Detroit played yesterday in a win vs Chicago and will now play their 6th game in 9 days and 3rd in 4 days , and fatigue could easily play a factor in their ability to extend a 4 game win streak tonight vs the Brooklyn Nets. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has also won 3 straight but are much fresher after a couple days off, and Im betting they will have the extra needed energy on their own home floor to come out of this battle on top. 

DETROIT is 11-22 ATS   when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 8-21 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. 

The Pistons are 0-12 ATS/SU as a road dog off a 10+ win as a home favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.The Pistons are 0-11 ATS /SU with no rest off a win as a favorite in which they had at least a 10 percent higher BAP than their opponent.

The Nets are 19-3 ATS/21-1 SU as a home favorite with rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.The Nets are 9-0 ATS/SU as a home favorite with rest off a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. 

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DETROIT) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 43-172 L/5 seasons for a  go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

  San Antonio (37-29) welcomes the league-leading Milwaukee Bucks (50-16) to its home court. Unfortunately for the Spurs they will be playing what has been a lousy guest for most of this season, as is evident by the Bucks 23-11 SU road record. On a pickem line the Bucks get my support in this spot. I know the Spurs are fresher than the Bucks , but  Milwaukee has been resilient and shown how well conditioned they are in the past as   is evident by  14-3 ATS record in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 12-1 ATS /12-1 SU as a road favorite with no rest off a home game.

 The Bucks are 19-2 ATS /20-1 SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a home game in which they scored a least 18 fast break points.

The Spurs are 0-11 ATS/SU when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest off a win as a favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. 

 MILWAUKEE is 7-0 ATS  in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season and is 12-4 ATS  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Milwaukee to cover 

Im not accusing Mark Cuban of anything other than being a highly intelligent and devious business man, when I say, that they're is a possibility and not a conspiracy theory  of him wanting his team to tank down the stretch for a higher draft pick, and maybe just maybe in closed door circumstances making his wishes known to the coaching staff. Just look at the Mavericks current run , and you get the feeling that this  is what's going on.  Also knowing that Cuban is a big time hoops fan, Im betting, if my crazy theory were right, that tanking would be put on the shelf for this one  game against instate NBA rivals Houston coming to town. Ok all tongue and cheek conspiracy theories aside, my projections say this number is a little bloated and we have value with the home dog with revenge on board to cover. 

Note: DALLAS is 21-12 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. (Rockets beat Cavs 120-104 at home earlier this season)

D'Antoni is 15-30 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season as the coach of HOUSTON.

The Rockets are 0-11 ATS /SU on the road with rest off a win in a home game after allowing 15+ points less than Vegas projected.The Rockets are 0-13 ATS as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a win facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game  .The Rockets are 3-19 ATS L/22 with rest off a 10+ win when they are off two games in which they had double-digit steals and have failed to cover 11 straight under those perimeters. 

The Mavericks are 13-0 ATS as a home dog after playing as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game. 

NBA team (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 13-30  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Memphis,  has won three of its past four games, including an impressive 114-104 victory over the visiting Utah Jazz last time out and must not be underestimated as short home chalk or dogs  vs the Orlando Magic here today in the spoilers role. Orlando has won 8 of their L/13 and is after a play off birth. However like Mick Jagger and the Rolling Stones state, You don't; always get what you want."  

The Magic are 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after playing as a home favorite. 

ORLANDO is 17-32 ATS  after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 season and s 18-34 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, on Sunday games are 30-11 SU L/5 seasons and 5-0 SU this season. 

The Grizzlies are 11-0-1 ATS L/12 at home off a 10+ win as a dog in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers.The Grizzlies are 10-0 ATS /9-1 SU at home off a 10+ win as a dog in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with the one loss coming on the last possession. The Grizzlies are 13-1 ATS L/14 at home off a 10+ win as a dog. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 27-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on Memphis to cover 

Atlanta is coming off a 114-112 loss to Brooklyn on Saturday night. The Hawks have dropped three straight but they are a young team with alot of promise. With Jrue Holiday out, and Anthony Davis missing form the lineup because of injuries the Pelicans are fade material here in this spot vs a hungry side, that like some other non play off  teams in the league are still playing hard as was evident yesterday. The Hawks are 16-3 ATSnwith no rest after they shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts.

The Hawks are 8-0 ATS/SU off a loss in a home game when they shot worse than 40 percent from the field their last two. 

ATLANTA is 28-16 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.Gentry is 10-25 ATS  against Southeast division opponents as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.The Pelicans are 0-9 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 

The Detroit Pistons took their biggest comeback of the season against the Chicago Bulls on Friday. The Bulls  will now have revenge and redemption on board for that embarrassing collapse and will play hard today and Im betting get is the cover.

The Pistons are 0-11 ATS failing to cover by more than 13 ppg as a favorite with less than two days rest after a game as a road favorite in which they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter. 

The Bulls are 15-1 ATS on the road off a home game after allowing 50-plus points in the paint.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 56-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.CHICAGO is 21-7 ATS  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Nets have dominated the Hawks in  both their  meetings this season, both of which were at home. Brooklyn won those tilts by a total of 33 points, averaging 130 points in the process.Im betting they dominate again and cover as short road chalk, vs a young team that is starting to struggle again after trending upward for a while. The Nets have won four in a row overall against the Hawks and have won three straight at Atlanta dating back to March of 2017.

The Hawks are 0-9 ATS /SU  as a dog with more than one day of rest off a loss as a dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.The Hawks are 6-21-1 ATS L/27 at home off a game as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.

The Nets are 34-4-1 ATS L39 on the road with rest facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range.

NBA Road favorites (BROOKLYN) - poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) against a horrible defensive team (47.5% or worse), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 61-26 ATS L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover