Kings enter this game well rested and showing a  7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Magic, are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and  are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Advantage Sacramento  based on overall stats. 

ORLANDO is 1-10 ATS  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 21-9 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 32-18 ATS  when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 17-6 ATS  in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

When the Washington Wizards finally returned to action following a prolonged absence linked to league health and safety protocols, they looked disorganized and took it on the chin. However now with some practice and game time, this well rested side should be more than a handful for a Houston side that is currently being over rated after their big trade. 

Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road underdogs (WASHINGTON) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 133-81 ATS L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

Clippers will be without Leonard, George, and Beverley which gives the Hawks a big edge especially with Trae Young now expected to suit up. The Hawks are 10-0 ATS coming off a loss as a dog where they were outscored in the paint by double digits. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season, after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on Atlanta to cover

Portland has won six of its last eight games, while the Thunder are 0-3 on a five-game road trip that concludes Wednesday against the Phoenix Suns. Both teams look to performing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, but my power ratings suggest a closer game than the linemakers number indicates. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-11 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-1 ATS  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-7 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons

NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

 The Chicago Bulls are off a loss last time out vs the Lakers and are now ready for a bounce back performance vs the Celtics.
The Bulls previous to that defeat  averaged 121.7 points in winning three straight games and deserve respect as a up-trending side.

The Bulls are 11-2 ATS L/13 as a dog.

 NBA Road favorites (BOSTON) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 75-42 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. 

Play on Chicago Bulls to cover

Denver behind a top 5 offense  has revenge on board for a previous loss to the Mavs, 124-117 at home 2 1/2 weeks ago and will now be primed to play hard tonight.   The Nuggets  12-3-1 ATS as a dog with revenge in this series.   With the Mavericks off back to back  games with in-state rivals Houston and San Antonio Im expecting a deflationary situation for them here tonight. NBA  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 34-11 ATS  L/5 seasons fkor a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Denver to cover

The Hornets made a big comeback last night and then finally won 107-104  on Gordon Hayward's tie breaking shot on a drive to the basket with less than a second remaining. I now expect a bounce back by the Magic, here in the rematch.  

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread are 74-17 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Orlando to cover

Indiana Pacers first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren will have his team primed to gain a split with his former boss and Toronto Raptors coach Nick Nurse Monday night when the teams complete a two-game set at Indianapolis.The Raptors won the opener of the back-to-back games 107-102 this past Sunday .

Atlanta is one of the most under rated teams in the NBA behind Clint Capella who currently ranks No. 2 in the NBA in Rebounds Per Game, and future super star guard Trae Young (22.6 PPG) .  We all know how powerful the Bucks can be but this line according to my projections is slightly bloated and offers value for advantage players. MILWAUKEE is 10-21 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 season.

Play on Atlanta to cover

In a game that features two struggling sides, one of these teams is the lesser of two evils according to my power rankings . With that said Im betting on the Magic coming out of this with a victory especially with Fournier back int he lineup tonight.  

ORLANDO is 24-8 ATS  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 season

The Hornets are 0-12 ATS /SU as a road dog off a game as a favorite.

Play on the Orlando to cover

The Lakers are obviously the superior side here, but the Bulls have proven themselves resilient this season, especially  when getting points. More of the same action on tape in this spot play. CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS  in non-conference games this season.

Take the points with the Chicago Bulls to cover 

With Karl-Anthony Towns out of the Minnesota lineup they just dont have much flow, and the chemistry looks bad as well , as is evident by 11 losses in 12 games including 4 straight defeats with 3 coming by DDs. I know New Orleans is not playing alot better, but they are a viable option vs this type of lower tier competition. 

MINNESOTA is 1-12 ATS  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 11 ppg. Saunders is 0-9 ATS  in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games as the coach of MINNESOTA. 

Play on New Orleans to cover

Detroit has for the most part been competitive this season despite of their ugly record. QUOTE: "We're finding ways to get back into it, to get ourselves in a position to win," Casey said. "We're due. We're due to have some good luck." END QUOTE

The Thunder have been in a funk lately and desperate to get back into a winning groove.  I know that wont come easily vs the Clippers, but with this being the home sides 4th game in 4 nights and on tired legs the Thunder have an edge on this line . There  are positives with supporting the Thunder as a bettor as they are  6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on two days rest.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-3 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 ATS  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-7 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, with a losing record are 115-67 ATS L/5 years for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

.

Nuggets Malone said he would like to give Murray and Jokic some time off, but with the upcoming schedule and the importance of the games it is difficult to find time. QUOTE: "Five games in (eight) days, it's really hard to do that," Malone said. END QUOTE: The key duo are tired. Advantage Phoenix . DENVER is 7-21 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Malone is 0-8 ATS  in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of DENVER.

Play on the Suns to cover 

The Sixers were swept by the Celtics in the first round of last season's playoffs in the Orlando bubble. Embiid hasn't forgotten the feeling  or so the media story spin is putting it.  Now Embiid thanks to off season conditioning is now a god among men according to the media, and will slice through a group that dominated them last season.  Im not buying. it, and now instead will take a contrarian stance, and take the points with Boston. BOSTON is 20-8 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Take the points with the Celtics 

analysis to follow thank you for your patience 

Van Gundy is 79-52 ATS  off a road loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA  team (UTAH) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 17-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  76% conversion rate for bettors.

New Orleans to cover 

In a game in fron of no fans, Im betting on the better side pulling off the win in a West vs East super matchup. As good as Giannis Antetokounmpo is , and as much as he brags about his obvious prowess, he has yet to put his money where his mouth is. Meanwhile, LeBron James and company are the real deal, and until the Greek Freak and step up in big games, Ill be fading him in this type of line. 

The Lakers are 11-0 ATS /10-1 SU on the road after a game as a home favorite in which they had more than 60% of the total rebounds.

Vogel is 21-9 ATS  in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of LA LAKERS. 

NBA. teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 18-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% comnversi-on rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

I know the Kings have not played inspirational basketball for a while now, but they still matchup well enough vs the Clippers  to cover a line that is partly based on recency bias and brand acceptability. 

NBA  team (LA CLIPPERS) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 17-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Pistons have been playing very hard and are expected  to have most of their  regular starters  tonight vs Atlanta .  It must be noted that 6 of 9 Pistons defeats  have been within 5 points in the last 5 minutes of play.ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS  versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 16  or more turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 in Atlanta. 

Play on Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Jazz may have won 5 straight but there are still some hiccups, and they far from perfect, especially at home  where they have gone just 2-2 SU . Pelicans still jelling but I  like their chances here tonight to get us the cover. Jazz are 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 home games. Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.  

The Jazz are 0-9 ATS /1-8 SU as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they rebounded less than 20% of their own misses the only win came by just 3 points. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 34-13 ATS vL/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Chicago was really struggling having lost 4 straight games before last nights road victory vs the Dallas Mavericks, and are fade material here on tired legs   despite of Houstons changes of late.  The Rockets according to my matchup power rankings  are a viable bet  in this spot.   

Bulls are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.Bulls are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 Monday games.Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

NBA  Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 3-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover 

The Grizzlies have won 4 straight games, but Im betting that with this being their 4th game in less than a week, they will be at a disadvantage vs a Suns side that has the ability to make them work hard here, which makes the young men from Memphis susceptible to a 2nd half meltdown. 

Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and  are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.Suns are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.

PHOENIX is 15-4 ATS  in road games after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 4-17 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.

NBA home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 39-76 L/24 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Phoenix Suns to cover 

HC Popovich has as way of having his teams ready to play top teir opponents, and tonight Im betting the Spurs will primed for the road win vs Portland.

Popovich is 267-221 ATS (+23.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of SAN ANTONIO.

Stotts is 69-92 ATS  against Southwest division opponents as the coach of PORTLAND

PORTLAND is 8-18 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams (SAN ANTONIO) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 68-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Hawks despite of some star talent in their lineup are not a cohesive team, and should not garner this much respect not even against the struggling Timberwolves. Note: Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.  Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and  are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and are also just  0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road teams (MINNESOTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The New York Knicks delivered a huge victory that felt like it was  years in the making on Sunday when they routed the Boston Celtics. But now after playing all out and now in a letdown state and on tired legs as they are on back to back tilts, Im expecting the Magic come out of this with a win. ORLANDO is 26-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. ORLANDO is 25-14 ATS   as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Orlando to cover

This is the last game of the Pacers 4 game west coast road trip which has seen them go 2-1 so far, and because of the lack of entetainment venues open because of covid , Im sure they are not that tired as a team, as rest and relaxation are key to every day life in the NBA right now . The Pacers are also according to my projections a much higher rating side than the linesmakers are giving them credit for here this evening in LA vs the Clippers.Meanwhile, the Clips are off a tilt where they shot the lights out in a 138-100 win vs the Kings, and could easily see a reversion to the mean here offensively, against one of the better defences in the league.  Lue is 10-25 ATS in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more in all games he has coached in his career. 

Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. .

NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 44-13 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indiana to cover

Utah has won 4 straight and are playing their best hoops of the season. The Nuggets could again be without Gary Harris, who has missed two straight games for personal reasons, and Michael Porter Jr. is out because of COVID-19 protocols which puts them at a disadvantage vs a motivated side lookin g for revenge from their play off series vs the Nuggets this past season in the bubble. 

Snyder is 21-7 ATS in road games after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more as the coach of UTAH.

Play on Utah to cover

The Raptors host the Charlotte Hornets for the second time in three days Saturday night in Tampa, Fla. Toronto  survived a 12-point fourth quarter in Thursday's initial encounter and held on to win, 111-108 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here with the points proving to be golden. Note: Charlotte has c overed 19 of their L/27 coming off a 6 point or less loss. 

Hornets are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Hornets are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog.
Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.Raptors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.Raptors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

NBA Home teams (TORONTO) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a losing record are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Charlotte to cover 

This is a back to back for Orlando, but they are according to my rankings the best conditioned team in the NBA, and are dangerous here as underdogs. Even if the newly acquired  Harden plays tonight, Im still feeling confident taking points. 

Clifford is 30-16 ATS in road games versus below average defensive teams like the Nets  - allowing 110+ points/game as the coach of ORLANDO.

NBA Home favorites (BROOKLYN) - after allowing 105 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 14-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover 

 Lauri Markkanen and Ryan Arcidiacano returned to practice on Wednesday, indicating they have been cleared from COVID-19 health and safety protocols and Otto Porter is expected to play tonight for the Bulls. These guys are key here in what Im betting will be a Chicago Bulls win vs a Oklahoma City side, that is young and inexperienced.

Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. 

Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

NBA Home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 86-137 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

After a week of postponements and scheduling chaos, the Boston Celtics appear set to return to the court Friday when they host the Orlando Magic but this will hinder them here in their ability to play at a top level because of rust and flow issues because of personnel losses.  Also due to due to health and safety protocols are Tatum and Williams, along with reserve guard Carsen Edwards. Swingman Jaylen Brown and big men Daniel Theis and Semi Ojeleye are among four in protocol listed as questionable, while guards Kemba Walker (knee) and Romeo Langford (wrist) are still sidelined by injury.

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 46-19 ATS L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Orlando to cover

These two sides are currently playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum with Charlotte having won 4 of their L/5 while  homeless Toronto have lost 5 of their L/6. With that said, we have a line that does not make complete sense when taking into consideration current form, but instead seems to pander to group of bettors that still perceive the Raptors as a top tier group that is able to compete for a Eastern Conference title.  I know that Charlotte played last night, but they are well conditioned according-to my charts and matchup well vs the Raptors. I do take rest into consideration  but still make the Raptors just 5 point favs. With a full possession variance in my number as compared to the line offered Im betting we have value with the up trending  underdog. Hornets are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Hornets are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hornets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.Hornets are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest are 49-88 L/23 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

One day after a big time  trade, the Houston Rockets will travel west to face the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday for the first of a pair of games between the two teams. Im betting the energy from this trade will reverberate and have the Rockets ready to perform. 

Minnesota had lost three in a row at home, and seven consecutive overall before finding a way into the win column last time out. Now here they are as favorites, which is not a good look for this type of struggling side. With Memphis showing signs of being able to compete without the injured Morant in the lineup, with two straight wins its and easy decision to take the points here with the Grizzlies .MINNESOTA is 3-12 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and  Timberwolves are  also 0-10 ATS /SU as a home favorite with rest. MINNESOTA is 7-23 ATS   in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings and have covered the L/3 meetings here in Minnesota. 

Dallas is out looking for revenge against Charlotte tonight after an embarrassing 118-99 loss at home the end of December. Im betting on the Mavs getting it behind super stars Kristaps Porzingis and.Luka Doncic and a current 38% January behind the arc conversion rate.

Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%).   DALLAS is 26-13 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) - playing with 3 or more days rest, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 67-18 SU L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-30 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

NBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 39-5 SU l/24 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

 NBA Home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 12-40 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

The Lakers enter this game the Lakers are 5-6 ATS with an 8.3 winning margin on average and they now go against a side that has revenge on board for getting the living crap kicked out of them in the first meeting of the season. Note: the  the Lakers did not cover their  second game against the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies, even though they won both meetings, and this Im betting will end the same way , in  a no cover for the defending champs vs a hungry side looking for redemption. 

NBA Road teams (LA LAKERS) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 23-52 ATS L/5 season for a  go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Brooklyn has played well of late but is just  8-22 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Malone is 20-35 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more as the coach of DENVER. I know Brooklyn maybe with Irving tonight but Durant is expected to be in the lineup and have enough talent to compete here and get us a win and cover according to my projections. Brooklyn is 2-0 SUATS L/2 games at home in this series.  Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

Cleveland will be without three of their best players in guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland as well as key cog Kevin Love, and they are also playing the second of a back-to-back tilts so their not in a good spot here vs a Utah side that is rested after last playing on Sunday. 

Two short-handed sides the  Philadelphia 76ers  and Miami Heat go head to head  on Tuesday. However, one team has an edge, based on what I see is their ability to do more damage offensively thanks to the Heats inability in their current covid form to address the defensive breakdowns that have been prominent in their game of late. Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and also  7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and  9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.

Key Trend: The Heat are 0-11 ATS /SU on the road when they won 3+ straight vs current opponent. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

The Knicks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and have played decent ball for the most part of this campaign . They did not look good last time out in a home loss to Oklahoma City, but in the past they have bounced back well from a bettors perspective cashing 5 of the L/7 after a defeat. Meanwhile, the Hornets are also playing viable hoops at the moment , but they have not faired well as chalk of late failing to cash 5 of their L/6 overall. From a projections standpoint I make the Hornets 2 point favs here so my number gives us value taking points. 

The Pistons have won only two of their first nine games and are once again fade material here in this spot vs  a Utah squad that rolled the Bucks on the road last time out by DDs.Snyder is 13-3 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog as the coach of UTAH

 DETROIT is 9-25 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.

I know the Magic got clobbered last night, but Im betting this under rated squad will be ready to bounce back here this evening. The Note: Magic are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 road games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall and also  8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile,  the Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

ORLANDO is 23-12 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons. ORLANDO is 13-4 ATS  in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Carlisle is 35-55 ATS  in home games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.  

Play on Orlando to cover 

Im betting on the  San Antonio Spurs get us a    a road victory  Saturday against a struggling  Minnesota Timberwolves team that has been unable to find and flow without big man Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Timberwolves are 0-14 ATS L/14  as a home dog after they had at least 30% of their points from threes with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at just under 12 ppg. 

MINNESOTA is 5-23 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 26-60 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

 The Los Angeles Lakers will play the second end of back-to-back contests when they host the Chicago Bulls on Friday. Which give us an edge with the underdog.  CHICAGO is 22-10 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons. NBA team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), poor ball handling team (16.5  or more TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5  or les TO's) are 24-9 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

Play on Chicago to cover (LATE STEAM)

According to my own line and projections based on matchup statistics we have value with the underdog Charlotte Hornets vs the New Orelans Pelicans.

The Pelicans are 0-17 ATS L/17 at home after they shot worse than 26% from beyond the arc last game.

 Van Gundy is 3-17 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA Road teams (CHARLOTTE) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 112-64 ATS L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

My matchup statistics and power rankings make this game closer to -2 for Denver giving us value with taking points. This sis a game that could flip either way , thus getting to ride the underdog is a viable wagering opportunity.

 Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Denver.

Nuggets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.


DENVER is 8-21 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons .


DALLAS is 25-13 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams (DENVER) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a losing record. are 14-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Dallas to cover 

Two struggling sides do battle tonight in desperation mode. This looks to be a dog fight, which makes taking the points a viable betting option. 

CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.CLEVELAND is 23-9 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons


NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game) are 59-28 ATS L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

I am not impressed by the Raptors so far this season, and despite of a weak bench Im betting on the core veterans of this group to come together tonight and give the Suns a battle which my projections estimate to supply us with a cover. The opening line was closer to where it should be and recency bias and public money streaming in the Suns  is now making getting points a viable opportunity for profit. 

TORONTO is 28-12 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

 Williams is 9-25 ATS  in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games, after 1 or more consecutive losses are 43-16 ATS L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team vs the money line (TORONTO) - off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 23-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play on Toronto to cover 

Detroit has really stunk up the joint here so far this season, in the won loss column at 1-6  but , they have been competetive for the most part and have cashed 4 of their L/5 trips to the hardoowd including a recent 122-120 heartbreaking loss the Celtics. Meanwhile, the Bucks are off two lopsided wins, with plenty of scoring punch spread around the lineup,including the last tilt vs this same Pistons group. Note: The Bucks are 0-12 ATS L/12 failing to cover by just under 13 ppg  with rest off a win in which they had 6+ double digit scorers. Also  NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are just 16-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (DETROIT) - terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48% or better on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 105-60 ATS L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Motown to cover 

The banged up Cavaliers after a quick start to their campaign are in desperation mode after suffering their  fourth loss in their past five trips to the hardwood.  The Cavs now play the Orlando Magic for the second time in the last  three nights and lost the last one 103-83  Monday. I know the Cavs dont look viable in their current form but with Issac Okoro expected to return tonight and with Orlando expected to be without Fournier and Williams we have an edge here taking points.Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Magic are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games and  are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest and are also  7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

The Spurs have lost 4 straight , but two of those games to a Lakers group that they did not matchup well against. The other two losses were closely contested. I know the Spurs Aldridge may not play or is less than 100%, but i still feel confident taking points here behind a hardworking group that actually matches up well vs the Clippers. Add to that ,  Im also betting this  will be an unmotivated Clippers group off a two game road trio vs strong competetion ( Suns, Jazz) and will now be on tiored legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights. NBA Road underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 129-77 ATS L/23 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 

Neither one of these teams are playing all that well, and while Minnesota has looked far worse recently than the the Utah Jazz, Im betting this line is slightly bloated when comparing matchup schemes and my own power rankings

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (DENVER) - poor foul drawing team from last season - attempted 24 or less  free throws/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 6-27 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites (DENVER) - after allowing 105 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 13-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 7-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to cover 

Philly took out Charlotte by a 127-112 count last time out , but I saw enough good matchups for Charlotte to back them getting points in the rematch. 

PHILADELPHIA is 7-23 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 32-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 6-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, team that had a winning record last season are 12-36 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Charlotte to cover

Super star Westbrook's Washington Wizards are coming off their finest outing of the young season and now I am going to ride that momentum into this game . The Wizards are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights but for a while now they have had one of the best conditioning programs in the league, and will be ready to run and gun again here tonight vs a uneven Brooklyn side that are poster boys for inconsistency which features the inability to cover in 4 straight tilts. WASHINGTON is 25-11 ATS   when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Washington to cover 

The  Raptors at this point in the season no longer look like Eastern Conference contenders and  are  just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Meanwhile, New Orleans has looked uneven in its tilts, but did look like they matchup well vs the Raptors in their opening game winning by a 113-99 count. In the rematch Im betting the Pelicans once again have an edge, as home underdogs in a spot they could easily win SU.  Van Gundy is 60-35 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 185 points or less are 54-13 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 



Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The Philadelphia 76ers will look for their third consecutive victory when they host the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday I just dont think it will come that easily here vs a Charlotte tonight. I know the Hornets lost last night as chalk , but after watching some tape of the game, its obvious they did not exert much energy and will have plenty left in the tank for this tilt. Quote: Despite the loss, head coach James Borrego has been pleased with the team's progress."For us it's just about building and growing," Borrego said. "We didn't have the best training camp. There's a lot of factors there, but I believe now we have found our footing." Enf Quote: I agree with the HCs assessments and they get my under rated factor here in a game based on brand reputation. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 40-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

NBA Road teams (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 33-11 ATS l/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

 Sacramento enters this game having covered 5 of their L/6 tilts dating back to last season, and continue to uptrend in my power rankings, while Houston is playing at the proverbial opposite end of the spectrum as far as bettors are concerned failing to cover in 6 of their L/7 overall and are 0-4 ATS L/4 at home in are fade material here in this spot against a weak favorite line. Rockets new HC  Silas acknowledged that the Rockets are a "work in progress" on defense and that Im betting will be their downfall today. 

SACRAMENTO is 19-9 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons  is 23-12 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 25-14 ATS  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  SACRAMENTO is 31-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons.  SACRAMENTO is 46-29 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons

HOUSTON is 118-154 ATS  in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

Utah played last night in a loss to the Suns, and looked lifeless. Now on tired legs dealing with a Clippers die that is expected to have their super star Kawhi Leonard in the lineup tonight the Jazz are once again in trouble . Note: Leonard owns a  +25.8 efficiency differential when on court vs. off this season. LA CLIPPERS are 25-12 ATS  as a road favorite over the last 3 season. 

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

Hornets have surprised me with some nice wins vs Nets and Mavericks and now have my attention going into tilt vs a banged up and disorganized looking Memphis side that will be without Grayson and Allen.CHARLOTTE is 16-6 ATS  when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 0-8 ATS  after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons.

I have been impressed with the Phoinex Suns and have no problem supporting them here vs a Utah  side they matchup well against. Phoenix, has wins over Dallas, Sacramento and New Orleans this season and I wont be surprised if they clip the Jazz here tonight and in the process get the cover. PHOENIX is 9-0 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Suns to cover 

The Raptors have started poorly losing 3 straight, but now Im betting on them coming out like their hair is on fire and taking down a Knicks side that hey have beaten  eight consecutive  times. The Knicks continue to deal with injuries. Obi Toppin (calf), Austin Rivers (groin), Immanuel Quickley (hip), Dennis Smith Jr. (quad) and Alec Burks (ankle) were inactive on Tuesday which im betting effects the teams flow in this spot. TORONTO is 12-2 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons and  TORONTO  14-4 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Toronto to cover 

Since Embiid returned to the court for the 76ers they have looked rejuvenated and on a mission. Im going to bet on the Sixers flow and momentum here vs a viable but still over matched Orlando side. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more  shots/game), after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 27-59 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Missing players due to covid from Bulls  give us value with the Wizards. Late Steam. 

Play on Wizards to cover

Dallas after starting their season with two straight losses finally got untracked last time out with a huge DD win vs the LA Clippers, and now Im betting on them carrying that momentum into this tilt vs a Charlotte side that they matchup well against according to my power rankings.

NBA Favorites (DALLAS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 26-6 ATS 
L/24 seasons for a  81% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Los Angeles Lakers hit the road for the first time this season when they square off against the Spurs on Thursday night in the first game of back-to-back matchups in San Antonio over a three-day period. The Lakers looked uninterested late in their game vs the Portland Trailblazers last time and lost. Im betting on more of a championship hangover for the Lakers tonight on the road vs a San Antonio Spurs that is uptrending in my power rankings since last season.SAN ANTONIO is 35-21 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.Vogel is 18-37 ATS  in road games after allowing 115 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

The Lakers obviously matchup very well against Portland as was evident in the NBA play offs when they grabbed 4 of 5 games. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here with the Lakers as short chalk on home floor. as they enter in top form off two DD blowout wins. Vogel is 10-1 ATS L/11 after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more in all games he has coached .

NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 1-24 SU L/24 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at  -9.9 ppg. 

NBA team vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year 26-3 L/24 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.1 ppg. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover

According to my projections the young Thunder do have the guns needed to hang with an experienced Utah Jazz side. Thus laying anything short of DDs,is a viable wagering opportunity according to my numbers. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 19-46 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate.

Play on Utah to cover

Both sides won their opening games of the season, and according to my projections are evenly matched coming into this holiday battle after Sacramento took the first game of this weekend war of attrition 106-103. This we have value according to my numbers with the underdog Kings. Note:Kings are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Kings are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The Clippers have started 2-0 and off a big DD win last time out while the Mavs are at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum having lost both their games, the last one by a wide margin to the NBA champion Lakers.Note:  .Carlisle is 34-13 ATS off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more as the coach of DALLAS and Im betting he has his side ready to rebound here today.  Lue is 6-20 ATS  L/26 in home games after scoring 120 points or more in all games he has coached. 

DALLAS is 23-12 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team (DALLAS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 6 or more of their last 8 games are 42-16 ATS L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Dallas to cover

Analysis to follow -thank you for your patience

Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Magic are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.


NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - off an upset win as a home underdog, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses are 4-24 L/24 seasons. 

Thanks to the Denver Nuggets having a tremendous poast season, while showing their reslience and ability to come back time after time, has the market over pricing them here in their return to the court. Hey dont get me wrong the Nuggets are a fine team, but Sacramento after adding a big man defensive stalwart Hassan Whiteside in the offseason are now a side that will not be easily intimadated at both ends of the court. With that said, Im recommending we take the points here with the under reated visitor. Note: the last three meetings in this series were all decided by 7 points or less and a repeat situation Im betting on tonights agenda.  The Kings are 8-2 ATS L/10 as dogs and have covered 19 of their L/26 as road underdogs. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

Miami has won the L/3 meetings in this series, and according to my new early seasons projections are once again deservedly a short favorite and my choice to get us the cover.

MIAMI is 23-12 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.


NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) - good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year, vs. division opponents are 55-15 L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +5.3 ppg. 

Play on Miami to cover

 Im not buying in this favorite line on the  Lakers . Yes, the champs have beefed up in the off season with the likes of  Gasol, Schröder, Matthews, and Harrell, but here on a neutral court environment  with no fans in attendance  the Clippers must be respected   getting points. You have to remember this is a Clippers team despite of losing steam late in the season, are still a world class hoops group, that owned  the league’s second-best Net Rating (6.3), second best Offensive Efficiency (113.3) and fifth in Defensive Efficiency (106.9). 

The Lakers did not look like they were into the last game at all, while Butler and company came out with their balls to the walls , and essentially embarrassed the Lakers in the work ethic department. LEBron does not like to be made a fool of, and so far in these play offs when LAL has lost (3 times) they have bounced back in a big way and  have won those following tilts by an average of 13 points per game  , and overall each time they have won in these play offs they have seen at least  a14 point margin of victory. Remember the Lakers have done the same thing in the last two series losing 1 game before rolling to convincing efforts.

NBAFavorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 36-5 L/24 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.4 ppg. 

Play on the LA Lakers to win 

Eastern Conference - NBA Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Lake Buena Vista, FL

Playing without point guard Goran Dragic (plantar fasciitis) and center Bam Adebayo (neck/shoulder strain), two of its three best players Miami looked to be in trouble last time out and with these two key cogs out or at less than 100% again this Heat side is in trouble. The only reason why the Lakers only won buy 10 points last time out , was because the Heat enjoyed a 34-17 free-throw disparity and I can't see that repeating itself here today. 

With the smell of NBA championship in the air for James and Davis, its not a difficult decision for me to back them here again. 

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-73 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

There is blood in the water and the Lakers are the  proverbial sharks . The Lakers very much respect this hard nosed never say die Denver team, and they know they need to step up here and finish them off. Im betting we see the core of this LAL side at their very best and for exhaustion to finally hamper the Nuggets as this will be their 19th play off game this season. Note: Reports on Anthony Davis ankle seem to be positive at this point and he is expected to be good to go. 

DENVER is 4-13 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%  or better of their shots are 39-3 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.8 ppg which qualifies under a spread situation as well. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

The Lakers played like crap in game 3, emotionless, and with very little heart. Im betting now they have learned their lesson unlike the 'jazz and Clippers and will come out here with a huge effort  and get us the cover vs the Nuggets here tonight. . LA has covered a six-point spread in nine of its 10 playoff wins and gets the nod again. 

LA LAKERS are 20-7 ATS  after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.DENVER is 4-13 ATS  after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

The Celtics are now trending upward and after game 2 it became evident that they are the better side in this series vs the Miami Heat. With Hayward back in the lineup, this game to me looks like a slam dunk.Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 playoff games as a favorite.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

The Lakers have now experienced the effects of a never say die Nuggets side, that gave them a scare last time out. You can bet the Lakers won't let their guard down in game 3, and make sure that they play a start to finish game. You have to remember, that the Nuggets despite of being young have played alot of catchup hoops during these play offs and coming from behind 3-1 in two straight series, while making many come from behind runs. While fans might be  loving the exploits of this underdog group, they maybe underestimating what it does to a teams energy levels, and  will that their exploits will eventually come back and bite them, and thats what I expect to see today. Partial exhaustion, and also in letdown mode after losing with no time left on the clock last time out (105-103), will have the Nuggets come out flatter here than expected. 

 Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Finals games.Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Nuggets have had an exhausting play offs and are off a hard fought 7 game series vs the Clippers where they made several comebacks , which in themselves were exhausting . Now here against a well rested Lakers  side and most probably in a letdown spot after their huge win in game 7 Im going to fade Denver out of the gate in game 1 and go against recency bias. You can also bet the star veterans of this Lakers side are also wide awake and ready to compete after watching the Nuggets beat up on a Clippers side that was expected to battle them here in the Conference finals. DENVER is 4-13 ATS after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  

Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.

Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 13-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

The Clippers had a huge DD lead in the 3rd quarter of game 6 of this series, when the Nuggets went on a 17-0 run and than finally over took the Clippers. Shock and awe was the story behind the comeback, and now here we are with the Clippers being favored again. It must be noted that the Nuggets have played a post season tilt every two days for four straight weeks and five of those were elimination games. Man this Nuggets  team has to be tired and with that said  Im taking the better team here the Clippers who maybe actually finally understanding their opponents are not quitters. Kawhi Leonard is the nuclear option here today, and Im betting he takes advantage of  Nuggets exhaustion. 

NBA Favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 49-21 L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate .

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Coming off a 7 game series will see the Celtics  in a letdown spot, and most probably exhausted as well. The rested Heat are no pushovers and must be respected here getting points. Miami won the most recent meeting on Aug. 4 in the bubble and gets my support in game 1. 

Note:Teams like Boston that take Game 7 are 32-45 (41%) straight up in Game 1 of the following series.

MIAMI is 8-1 ATS  in all playoff games this season.

Play on Miami to cover 

In game 5  as has been the case a few times in this series the Clippers have showed their superiority vs the Nuggets, before falling asleep at the proverbial wheel and allowing the Nuggets to mount a comeback. Now knowing the Nuggets will not easily be beaten down, Im expecting Kawhi Leonard and company to come out here with a huge effort and cancel any hopes the Nuggets have of taking this to a game 7. Note: The Nuggets are averaging just 96.3 PPG in their three losses which shows me that when the Clippers are focused the Nuggets are in trouble. Im betting the Clippers will be very focused in this one. You have to remember that the Clippers have won   18 of 20 quarters in this series and a compete start to finish 4 quarter win effort is not out of the question. 

LA CLIPPERS are 7-0 ATS  after a loss by 6 points or less this season with a the average combined margin of victory coming by 23.4 ppg.

DENVER is 4-15 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Clippers to cover

The Clippers have looked very good in this series and sometimes peculiarly disinterested. They are the superior team, but Denver are no pushovers, and now feeling like they having nothing left to lose and on the verge of elimination, Im betting that they hang here today and make life difficult for the Clippers. I still cant get the 31-14 lead  the Clippers had early in the second quarter of Game 4  when Denver exploded and came back to tie the game. This Nuggets team are not quitters. Take the points. 

Malone is 47-27 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of DENVER.

Play on Denver to cover 

The defending NBA champion Raptors have already shown that they wont go down here without a fight and after being  down 2-0  to the Celtics after two games came storming back to tie the series before an ugly effort in game 5. HC Nick Nurse knows how to make adjustments and after that last humiliation, you bet he will have his team ready to compete. 

Raptors are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog.Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 point. 

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

The Celtics had the leagues 4th most efficient offense this season, but last time out they were in a horrendous down slope with their shooting going 7/35 from downtown, for a ugly 20% conversion rate. I will give Torontos HC Nick Nurse alot of respect for his teams turnaround in this series, but Im still betting the Celtics will bounce back here after that down effort last time out. 

BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or more ) this season.  BOSTON is 11-2 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

NBA  Favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 172-63 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Boston Celtics to cover

Miami is on the verge of moving on vs a Bucks side that refuses to change their non opera-table  game plan. Down 3-0 their stubbornness will be the proverbial death of the Bucks here today.  Bet on the Miami Heat moving on and covering. 

MIAMI is 7-0 ATS  in all playoff games this season.

MILWAUKEE is 1-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season

Giannis Antetokounmpo is downgraded to "?" Sunday vs Miami ( Ankle ) and if he plays he will be less than 100%. 

Play on Miami to cover

There is blood in the water, and the Celtics are the proverbial sharks here today. With no Kawhi Leonard in the lineup the defending champion Raptors are in a trouble against a very hungry opponent, that I personally believe is more talented. BOSTON is 12-1 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70%) this season and get the nod here again.BOSTON is 10-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43% or less this season.BOSTON is 19-3 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Orlando, FL

This may not be do or die for Milwaukee, but they pretty well know as a team that if they lose again today, that their season for all intensive means is over. So with that said, Im betting on team Giannis and his gigantic ego to come out here in desperation mode and to get us a victory and more importantly the cover. 

MILWAUKEE is 25-11 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 12-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, on Friday nights are 52-20 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Denver after taking part in a grueling 7 game series, are now on tired legs coming into this series vs a fresh Clippers team that will be motivated to get a win and get the ball rolling on moving on to the NBA finals. Im betting on the fresher more talented and experienced side to get the job done here in convincing fashion. 

DENVER is 7-19 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. LA CLIPPERS are 20-11 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

NBA team vs the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 80 points or less are 24-4 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.4 ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 5-47 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.2 ppg. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Miami Heat took game one of their  Eastern Conference Semifinal series against the Milwaukee Bucks with 115-104 win on Monday night, thanks in part to lousy charity stripe shooting (14-26) which was an anomaly. Milwaukee has not really faced much adversity in the play offs so far, but now they must adjust to top tier competition, and Im betting they will do just that here today behind the  big ego of Giannis. The Heat work at a lower pace , and like the half court game which does not always suit the Bucks, but HC Budenholzer can and will speed this tilt up with line adjustments, and force Miami to run with them, which in turn will get the Bucks to the promised land in game 2. 

MIAMI is 11-21 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season.MIAMI is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

MILWAUKEE is 15-3 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Budenholzer is 45-24 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

Jamal Murray’s has been the catalyst for the sudden explosiveness of the Nuggets offence and that  has changed the complexion of this series, which now bodes well for  Denver  in this deciding Game 7 tilt. I also like the bench depth that the Nuggets have with Jokic and Mitchell and give them a strong chance at advancing. 

UTAH is 5-13 ATS vs. division opponents this season. UTAH is 5-13 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season. Malone is 20-8 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DENVER.

NBA team vs the money line (DENVER) - after scoring 105 points or more in a win over a division rival, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 24-9 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to win 

Miami owned the Pacers in thier last series, and matchup very well vs the Bucks in this series.  This Heat squad is a top-five rebounding side as is evident by a 51.2% rebounding rate, and this will be key to them slowing down the Bucks proficient offense. Im betting on the Heat trying to slow this game down, and grind away at the Bucks flow, which will prove a difficult obstacle to a Bucks side that operates optimally at a high pace. 

 MIAMI is 18-7 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 3-12 ATS  after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more this season.

MIAMI is 6-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasonsMIAMI is 6-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons.

Miami to cover 

LA scored  154 points in regulation last time out , and the Clippers have scored 130 in three straight. Thats a combination of careless defence by the Mavs and some amazing shooting by the Clippers. However, all great runs must come to end, and for me I feel the Clippers proverbial engine after igniting at a high level is over heating and ready for a energy regression. With the likes of Doncic in the lineup for Dallas they remain dangerous threats, and wont be intimidated. With that said, Ill take the points. 

LA CLIPPERS are 2-13 ATS in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.

DALLAS is 32-17 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.DALLAS is 25-12 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Carlisle is 40-15 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of DALLAS.

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 8-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 60-25 ATS L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play Dallas Mavs 

Harden and company were on their way to a 3-1 series lead vs the Thunder last time out, but blew a DD lead. Now out looking for redemption I expect a herculean start to finish effort from the Rockets here vs a team that Im betting their superior to. 

HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS  when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 season. HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS  in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season.

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 34-1 L/5 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 12.4 ppg which qualifies under a spread bet scenario. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 29-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Houston to cover