The White Sox have lost 11 of their 12 games on the road this season, in what has begun as an absolutely abysmal start  to their campaign which gives me little credence to consider them as viable underdogs. 

White Sox expected starter Crochet goes to the hill in  his sixth start of the season. He is 1-3 with a 5.61 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings pitched.The southpaws most recent appearance was on Friday against the Philadelphia Phillies, when he threw three innings, surrendering seven earned runs while allowing five hits. In his current form he is fade material. Note: White Sox are averaging just 2.2 rpg scored. 

CHI WHITE SOX are 2-17  against the money line against right-handed starters this season. CHI WHITE SOX are 4-21   against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200 over the last 2 seasons.

 MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), after a loss by 2 runs or less are 38-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to win

This season, the Cubs have been favored seven times and won six of those games and own a  record of 6-1 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -128 on the moneyline and have the edge today according to my own own projections. I know Hendricks the Cubs starter might have some nasty early season numbers attached to his pitching profile, but it must be noted he will face a Miami side that has garnered a ugly .324 slugging percentage this season so far which is the second-lowest percentage in the majors.The Marlins also rank 27th in MLB with a .215 batting average. Im betting on Hendricks righting his ship and for the Cubs to do enough damage against the Marlins starter Cabrera to get us to the promised land of victory.

MIAMI is 1-9  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.MIAMI is 31-86 L/117 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or more over his last 3 starts are 7-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate. 

MLB Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - below average NL hitting team (AVG .255or less) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.50 or more over his last 3 starts are 48-16 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on Chicago to win

The Tigers were able to get redemption for a 1-0 loss in the series opener on Monday and grabbed a  4-2 victory on Tuesday afternoon by garnering  two runs in the eighth inning and get the nod again here today.

 Note: Texas starter DUNNING is 7-20  against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)DUNNING is 3-10   against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 0-9 against the money line in road games against AL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record)  DUNNING is 4-18 against the money line in road games in the first half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 1-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.020.

Left-hander Tarik Skubal (2-0, 2.08 ERA) is expected to start the third game of the four-game set for Detroit against the Rangers. Skubal collected his second victory of the season on Friday when he held the Minnesota Twins scoreless for five innings and enters this game with momentum. SKUBAL is 7-1  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season in his career. (Team's Record) The Tigers bullpen also hasn't allowed a run over 5 2/3 innings in the series and Im betting will give Skubal the support he needs when and if he leaves this game. 

Considering Texas has scored two runs or fewer in four of the past six games their current from suggests their host has the advantage. 

Play on the Tigers to win 

The Guardians improved their road record to 8-2 with Monday's 6-0  win at Fenway and have obvious momentum entering this game vs their hosts the BoSox.  Note: BOSTON is 8-17  against the money line in home games after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.

BOSTON is 15-32  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. 

BOSTON is 2-14  against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Cleveland starter BIBEE is 1-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.200

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are just 18-41 L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB  Road teams (CLEVELAND) - after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games are 60-33 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to win 

The series finale is expected to see two right-handers go to the hill as  the Cubs'  send Javier Assad (1-0, 1.64 ERA) against the Mariners' Luis Castillo (0-3, 6.89).Assad, has looked good in his  two starts this season winning a 12-2 event on April 2 hosting the  Colorado Rockies , while  throwing six scoreless innings. On Monday on the road vs San Diego, he left with a six-run lead after five innings  of top tier work in a game the Cubs eventually blew by a  9-8 count.Meanwhile, Seattles starter Castillo, who owns a  7-5 record along  with a 3.64 ERA in 17 career starts against the Cubs, has given up four earned runs in each of his first three starts of the season, and has looked a little shaky  as has  failed to last more than 5 2/3 innings in those starts.Note: CASTILLO is 6-11  against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Advantage Cubs.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHICAGO CUBS) - struggling  NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better ), in April games are just 30-13 L/5 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win 

This season, the Dodgers have won 10 out of the 16 games, for a  62.5%, conversion rate  when they have been favored. 

The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 65.8% chance of a victory for the Dodgers. and added league wide trends support an even higher probability of victory.

Padres starter  Waldron has-seen his team loes his only start as an underdog this season.Waldron's team is 0-2 when he starts this season. and Im betting nothing changes today as my early season pitcher vs batting order projections estimate that the Dodgers matchup very well against him.

ROBERTS is 73-24  against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 as the manager of LA DODGERS.

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA DODGERS) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, off a one run loss versus a division rival are 40-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA DODGERS) - revenging a one run loss to opponent, off a loss to a division rival as a favorite are 46-4 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win 

Minnesota ended  a four-game losing streak by recording a 3-2 victory vs the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, but their offensive inconsistencies give cause for pause when believing they may be ready to get going in a positive direction. Meanwhile, the Tigers offense has shown flashes of brilliance and according to my power rankings matches up well against the Lopez the Twins expected starter . After yesterdays cancellation and their Day off on Wednesday the Tigers are well rested and ready for a top tier effort. 

 MINNESOTA is 6-23  against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better  over the last 3 seasons.

DETROIT is 29-13   against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

Home teams (DETROIT) - American League team who had a slugging percentage .410 or worse last season, ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games are 26-8 L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 4-35 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to win

Left-hander Cody Bradford (2-0, 2.13 ERA), who was co-Most Outstanding Player of the 2018 Big 12 Tournament with Langelier's when both played at Baylor, will be on the mound for Texas on Wednesday. He will be primed to end the Rangers 3 game losing streak which came at the hands of the Houston Astros. I know the As have won 3 straight, but Im betting their over matched in this tilt as  as they send Right-hander Ross Stripling (0-2, 3.75 ERA), who is 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in five career appearances (two starts) against the Rangers

OAKLAND is 17-59  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TEXAS) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, off a one run loss versus a division rival are 39-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TEXAS) - off a one run loss versus a division rival are 61-9 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Play on Rangers to win 

The Baltimore offense, smashed out 13 hits during a 7-1 win over Boston on Tuesday in the series opener and now Im betting they roll here again today vs the Red Sox starter  Crawford. Note: Red Sox starter CRAWFORD is 3-12  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) CRAWFORD is 2-9  against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

BOSTON is 2-13  against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.

CORA is 11-23  against the money line after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival as the manager of BOSTON

MLB  Road teams (BALTIMORE) - off a win of 6 runs or more over a division rival, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to win 

Mets upset Atlanta yesterday and now Im betting on. big bounce back effort from the Braves. Mets starter HOUSER is 0-4 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.600. Lopez allowed one run over six innings on April 2, when the Braves lost 3-2 to the Chicago White Sox. He is 1-2 with a 3.77 ERA in six games (two starts) vs. the Mets and according to my early season power rankings matchs up well vs the Mets offensive lineup. 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (ATLANTA) - off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher against opponent off a one run win over a division rival are 36-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Atlanta Braves

The Rangers have won each of their last five games as underdogs following a loss which was the case yesterday in a 3-1 loss to the Astros. 

The Astros have lost each of their last six games as favorites against AL West opponents following a win. 

Im betting the Rangers bouncing back here today.

MLB team (HOUSTON) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season are 4-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rangers to win 

The Astros offense has looked very inconsistent to start the season, and   only managed two runs, in. a lopsided loss to the Rangers yesterday. Im betting things will not change today as the Rangers side averaging 6.5 runs while their pitching is giving up just 3.38 runs per tilt. I know the Astros Blanco had a top tier outing last time out, but Im betting on regression here against a scoring offense that is not easily shut down. 

BOCHY is 7-0  against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less 3 straight games as the manager of TEXAS. BOCHY is 17-4 against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games as the manager of TEXAS.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TEXAS) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season are 41-7 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

Play on Texas to win 

The Cubs have won 5 straight including yesterdays 9-7 win vs the Dodgers at home in Wrigley and must not be underestimated in this abilities to pull off the underdog win here today. Considering Chicago has scored 35 runs over its first four home games its not a stretch to believe they can make short work of Yamamoto (0-1, 7.50 ERA) the Dodgers starter. Note: This Dodgers squad faces Chicago left-hander Jordan Wicks (0-0, 4.50 ERA), who will make his first career start against Los Angeles . Dating back to last season his team has won his last 3 starts. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 12-4   against the money line as a home underdog of +150 to +200 over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams (LA DODGERS) - stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season, after allowing 8 runs or more are 9-29 L/5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (LA DODGERS) - good team from last season, outscored opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game, after a combined score of 15 runs or more are 19-35 L/27 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Cubs

As starter Blackburn is a quality pitcher, but the Tigers offense according to my early season power rankings matches up well against him and even better vs the Motown pedestrian bullpen.What Im betting here is that the Tigers get serviceable innings out of Maeda their expected starter and quality bull pen group , and also  thanks to a sometimes explosive offense find a way to the promised land. 

OAKLAND is 3-33  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons. OAKLAND is 18-44  against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (OAKLAND) - struggling AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), after a loss by 2 runs or less are 3-37 L/5 seasons for a go against 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to win 

Red Sox expected starter Pivetta  owns a 1.50 ERA and 15.0 strikeouts per nine innings, while opponents are batting .143 against him this season so far. 

He will go to the hill against an Athletics offense that is batting .195 as a unit (27th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .323 (24th in MLB).

Meanwhile, the As expected starter Stripling owns a  7.20 ERA and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings while opponents are hitting .318 against him. The opposing Red Sox offense has a .244 batting average, and is eighth in the league with 53 total hits and 12th in MLB play with 28 runs scored. 

Advantage Red Sox 

 The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 62% so we have an edge their according to projections. The A's have come away with one win in the six contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season and Im betting this will be their 6th failure.

The Oakland Athletics have only hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 157 games (-31.10 Units / -20% ROI)

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 14+ losses in last 20 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 34-6 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to win 

The BoSox look to be in a groove and have won their last two games by a 14-1 combined count including yesterday 9-0 shellacking of Oakland. Im betting on a rinse and repeat W going on the board today. Note:  BOSTON is 16-4 against the money line after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Also MLB  favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 14+ losses in last 20 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 34-6 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

OAKLAND is 10-30  against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Boston to win

 BoSox starter Houck had great control in the spring, issuing just three walks in 15 innings. He went 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in five appearances, striking out 16 and gets the nod today according to my matchup projections vs the Oakland As. 

Oakland had started their season  losing 3 straight games to the Cleveland Guardians by a total score of 26-7 , but bounced back last time out with a walk of walk to grab a win. Im now betting on immediate regression vs what is a superior side.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 14+ losses in last 20 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 33-6 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to win

The Royals' offense is not visible yet  scoring just one run in each of their first two games. Kansas City has just 10 total hits so far this season and  im betting their struggles continue today vs the Twins who matchup well vs the Royals starter Singer who in two starts against the Twins last season, allowed 10 runs in 7 2/3 innings. KANSAS CITY is 9-23   against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 3-18  against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Twins to win

Texas Starter Eovaldi allowed five runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings in Game 1, which Texas won 6-5 in 11 innings. He fanned eight and walked one. In eight career regular-season appearances (five starts) against the Diamondbacks, Eovaldi is 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA. EOVALDI is 12-1 against the money line vs. good base-running teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game in his carrer. (Team's Record) EOVALDI is 11-2   against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Texas,  owns a  record 10-0 on the road in the postseason and matchup well here vs Dbacks starter  Zac Gallen who owns a 6.75 ERA in his L/3 play off starts.

ARIZONA is 4-18 against the money line in home games against AL West opponents over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games are 57-28 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Advantage Texas 

In a series like this Im betting pitching trumps offense , and entering this game the Dbacks pitching has been out standing during the post season  as was the case against the explosive offense of the Phillies . Here against another top tier offense, Im betting the Dbacks once again have the edge. Aslo considering the struggles of the Rangers at home in the play offs it will not be a hard decision to take the underdog on a value moneyline offering in this spot play. ARIZONA is 9-3 against the money line in playoff games this season

TEXAS is 7-15 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season.

TEXAS is 9-24  against the money line in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home teams (TEXAS) - very good offensive team - scoring 5.4  or more runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent good offensive team - scoring 4.5 or more  runs/game on the season (NL) are just 20-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Arizona Dbacks to win 

Houstons starter Javier (2-0, 1.69 ERA this postseason). The righty  allowed two runs on three hits and one walk with three strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings in the Astros' 8-5 victory in Game 3. Javier had not allowed a run in his three previous postseason starts and improved to 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA as a starter in the postseason. Meanwhile, Scherzer the Rangers starter who had been sidelined with a muscle strain in his shoulder did not look good upon his return and is fade material here as I believe he is not 100%. Im betting the Rangers undefeated record on the road in the play offs comes to end tonight. 

In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams such as the Texas Rangers trailing 3-games-2 but winning Game 6 on the road by 7+ runs had a Game 7 record of 2-4; the two victories were by the St. Louis Cardinals over the New York Yankees in the 1926 World Series, and by the Detroit Tigers over the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1968 World Series.

 MLBRoad teams (TEXAS) - AL team with a high slugging percentage (.440 or better ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or better), struggling hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games are 19-45 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Astros to win 

The Diamondbacks' Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47 ERA regular season; 2-1, 4.96 postseason) will go against the Phillies' Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 regular season; 2-0, 2.37) .

The Dbacks have momentum entering game 5 of this series as they won yesterday 6-5 to tie this series. The energy surrounding the Dbacks right now is very positive and Im willing to ride that wave here on a value line.

In the postseason, Gallen defeated the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers before losing at Philadelphia. He is 3-1 with a 2.22 in five career regular-season starts against the Phillies. Dbacks starter GALLEN is 11-1  against the money line in home games in night games this season. (Team's Record) GALLEN is 23-8 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)GALLEN is 23-8  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

ARIZONA is 19-11 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season like Wheeler. WHEELER is 8-12  against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)

PHILADELPHIA is 9-20  against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season.

ARIZONA is 15-3  against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings this season.

MLB  Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, in October games are 10-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or less over his last 10 games are 11-29 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Diamondbacks to win 

Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22) takes on Rangers' lefty Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20).

Houston offense, has been extremely productive Globe Life Field. The Astros are 8-1 when visiting Texas in 2023 and are averaging nine runs in the nine meetings. Houston has scored 69 runs in its past six games in Arlington and Im betting nothing changes here today.I know Texas left-hander Jordan Montgomery shut out the Astros in game 1 of this series, but the Astros offense has shown great resilience in the past, and have made adjustments on the run, and Im betting thats what they do here as they finally get to Montgomery.  Note: The Astros are undefeated on the road in the playoffs and had the best road record in baseball this season and should roll here once again in a ball park that they thrive in. 

Play on Houston to win 

Astros starter URQUIDY is 13-3  against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) URQUIDY is 5-0  in his career when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.82 and a WHIP of 0.761. and gets my support here again. 

The Astros have scored 59 runs in their last five road games against the Texas Rangers after yesterdays 8 run and output and Im betting more explosive is on the way. 

TEXAS is 9-22 against the money line in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons

HOUSTON is 7-1  against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.4 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  HOUSTON is 16-3  against the money line in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game in the second half of the season this season.HOUSTON is 30-14 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against an average starter (ERA  4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after allowing 8 runs or more are 10-33 L/26 seasons for a go against for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to win 

Texas  right-hander Max Scherzer (13-7, 3.77 ERA regular season), who is making his first start since Sept. 12 after sustaining a major muscle strain in his pitching shoulder. Im sure Scherzer velocity will be down and rust could easily see him beaten around by a Rangers offense that could at any time explode for a boatload full of runs. Meanwhile, Astros starter Javier hasn't allowed a run in three career postseason starts. The right-hander has allowed two hits in 16 1/3 innings in those starts, including a top tier  six innings  no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of last year's World Series.Javier, will be making his second start of this postseason. He defeated the Minnesota Twins in Game 3 of the AL Division Series, when he allowed one hit in five scoreless innings. Javier, who is 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 15 postseason appearances and get my support here today. JAVIER is 10-1  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) JAVIER is 10-1 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. (Team's Record) AVIER is 8-0  against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. (Team's Record)

HOUSTON is 9-0  against the money line in road games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season. 

HOUSTON is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. HOUSTON is 8-1  against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (HOUSTON) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 40-16 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Play on the Houston Astros to win 

Philadelphia starter SUAREZ is 7-0  against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)SUAREZ is 24-8  against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Strider the Braves starter is 0-2 record in two playoff starts against the Phillies, along with an ERA of 5.79.

THOMSON is 18-7  against the money line in October games as the manager of PHILADELPHIA.

MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - very good NL offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), in October games are 12-37 L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phillies

Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.35 ERA) will start Game 3 for the Rangers

Rangers starter EOVALDI is 19-5  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) EOVALDI is 11-2   against the money line in playoff games since 1997. (Team's Record)

Os Right-hander Dean Kremer (13-5, 4.12 ERA regular season) gets the ball for the Orioles. Im sure he has butterflies as he prepares for his biggest start of his life.Kremer, lost to Texas on May 27 when he gave up three runs and five hits over 6 1/3 innings. Overall, he's 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA in three career starts versus the Rangers and according to my power rankings does matchup well vs this explosive Rangers offense. 

TEXAS is 20-6 against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season.

TEXAS is 24-12  against the money line against AL East opponents this season.

MLB  underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest, after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings. are 8-37 L/5 seasons for a go against  82% conversion rate. 

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) -AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games. are 11-30 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas to win 

Left-hander Max Fried (8-1, 2.55 ERA regular season) will start for the Braves against Philadelphia right-hander Zack Wheeler (1-0, 1.35 this postseason). Fried started once against Philadelphia this season and allowed one run in five innings during a no-decision. Wheeler has pitched well against the Braves this season, but are an explosive offensive side that will eventually figure opposing pitchers out, and that is what Im betting on tonight. ATLANTA is 20-3  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher  like Wheeler whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season.

FRIED is 24-9 ( against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) FRIED is 22-7  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 in his career (Team's Record)

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ATLANTA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70) or less  (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 91-31 L/5 seams for a 75% conversion rate!

MLB- Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games, in October games are 17-51 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to win 

Texas won the opener of the best-of-five series 3-2 over top-seeded Baltimore on Saturday for their third straight post season road win. But Im betting the run ends today. 

Rangers starter MONTGOMERY is 10-21  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 3-10  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 0-7  against the money line after giving up no earned runs last outing this season. (Team's Record) BALTIMORE is 37-18  against the money line against left-handed starters this season.

Note: Orioles starter Rodriguez since returning from the minors in July was  5-2 along  with a very respectable  2.58 ERA in 13 starts . According to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well here vs Montgomery and company. 

BALTIMORE is 17-6  against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

MLB Home teams (BALTIMORE) - with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games, in October games are 76-29 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more  runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70)-AL, after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less are just 12-31 L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to win 

Phillies starter SUAREZ is 6-0  against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)Suarez, has previously faced this Atlanta batting order  in the postseason, having allowed one run on three hits in 3 1/3 innings of a no-decision in Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS. He posted a 2-0 record with a 1.23 ERA and a save in five appearances (three starts) during the postseason and I m backing him today. Note:Suarez allowed just one run on four hits and struck out seven over six innings in a no-decision against Atlanta on June 20. On the flipside I know  Atlantas starter Strider was 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts this season against  the Phillies , but all good and bad runs must come to an end. 

ATLANTA is 5-12 against the money line in home games when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series since 1997. 

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0  against the money line in road games when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series since 1997.PHILADELPHIA is 16-6   against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Philadelphia 

AMERICAN League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 1

Justin Verlander (13-8) is the starter  in game 1 of this series for  the Houston Astros. The Minnesota Twins have yet to name a starting pitcher for this tilt. 

Houston,  is rested but rusty after getting a bye in the first round  as they smash and grabbed  the AL West from the Rangers on the final day of the regular season. Before sweeping their last three tilts, the Astros  were in a funk  recording a sub par 13-14 record over their final 27 games any may.not be the perennial favorite vs the Twins. I know the the Astros are the defending World Series champions , so they get alot of respect, but here in game 1 they look vulnerable considering their late season form. It must also be noted that the Twins have a deep starting five -quality starters (Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda) that can definitely keep them in this series. Also from. a offensive perspective Minnesota had the league’s highest OPS over the month of September and  are capable of keeping up with the Astros vaunted attack. We have to remember that Minny took 4 of 6 from the astros this season and are viable underdogs here in game 1. 

The Twins are not favored for the first time in a while, as they have not been listed as underdogs in their last 10 trips to the diamonds. 

This year, Minnesota has won four of 10 games when listed as at least +132 or worse on the moneyline.

 HOUSTON is 4-9  against the money line in home games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more this season. HOUSTON is 13-22 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 52-27 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to win 

Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios will take the mound in Game 2. He went 11-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 32 starts this season and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not match up favorably vs Minnesotas batting order. Meanwhile, Gray the Twins starter  finished strong down the stretch, recording  a stingy 1.54 ERA in his final seven starts of the regular season. He walked five and struck out 36 in 41 innings and gets my support here. TORONTO is 6-14  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better this season.

MLB  underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, in October games are 5-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to win 

Minnesota has a record of 67-44, a 60.4% win rate, when favored by -113 or more by bookmakers this season and once again according to my own projections have the edge in this tilt vs the Blue Jays. It must be noted despite of the talent the Jays have in their batting order they have for the most part failed to live up to expectations and are lucky to be in this position as their offense has a collective .256 batting average (just barely above the Mendoza line), and rank seventh in the league with 1422 total hits and 14th in MLB with 746 runs scored. It has the 13th-ranked slugging percentage (.416) and ranks 16th in home runs (188) in all of MLB.

Torontos starter GAUSMAN is 15-22  against the money line against AL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record) GAUSMAN is 1-4 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.500.

 MINNESOTA is 23-5  against the money line in home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out. 

MINNESOTA is 44-22  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (TORONTO) - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, in October games are 8-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to win 

The Rays have entered the game as favorites 130 times this season and won 86, or 66.2%, of those games and my projections estimate they deserve their fav status here today vs a Rangers side, that has been highly inconsistent since the all star break.

Note: Glasnow the Rays right-hander starter today is off  five scoreless innings  while surrendering just  two hits.In 21 games this season,  he has put up an ERA of 3.60, with 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .209 against him and he once again looks to help his team find the W column in the opening game of this post season tilt. I know the Rangers can light up the scoreboard when in form, but it must be noted that the Rays are among the highest-scoring teams in the majors, ranking fourth with 860 total runs this season.

MLB Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games, in October games are 75-28 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Road teams (TEXAS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games, in October games are 11-43 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the TB Rays to win 

The Orioles (100-60) had won five in a row before losing 3-0 on Friday, a night after they clinched the American League East title with a 2-0 victory over the Red Sox. They were obviously in a emotional letdown situation in that game , and will be primed to get the win here as they do not want to enter the play offs in a losing mode.QUOTE: "It was a big night for us (Thursday) night, and we just didn't play our best baseball (on Friday), and those things happen," Hyde said. "Hopefully, we'll rebound and play a better game." END QUOTE

Baltimores starter GIBSON is 15-6  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Team's Record) GIBSON is 22-11  against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Home teams (BALTIMORE) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 29-9 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road teams (BOSTON) - after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 16-43 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orioles to win

The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch a wild-card spot and win their three-game series versus the visiting Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday afternoon.

Tampa Bay already has a wild card spot in the play offs and now just want to make sure their lineup is healthy entering the post season. Meanwhile, the Jays still need to guarantee their post season appearance with a victory and will be ready to play all out baseball to get there.

The Blue Jays are scheduled to start left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu (3-3, 3.31 ERA) on Saturday.

The Rays are scheduled to open with right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong (1-0, 1.41 ERA). In 18 career relief outings against Toronto, he is 0-0 with an 8.31 ERA. The Blue Jays got to him for two runs on four hits in just one-third of an inning on Sept. 23 and according to my pitcher vs batting order match up well against him. This will be a bullpen game for the Rays, and players will be rested so the advantage goes to the more motivated side.

Play on Toronto to win 

Cleveland starter QUANTRILL is 11-1  against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) QUANTRILL is 18-8   against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Quantrill threw six shutout innings at Detroit in a vwin on April 19. He is 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA in nine career outings against the Tigers, including six starts

Meanwhile, Left-hander Joey Wentz (3-12, 6.45 ERA) will start the series opener for Detroit. He pitched well against the Guardians this season in two starts, but Im betting the Guardians will have him figured out in the third starts a charm scenario. 

This baseball group from Motown has been playing better of late, but that has not been a recipe for success this season as DETROIT is 4-13  against the money line in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.

DETROIT is 13-25 against the money line in home games in night games this season.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Friday are 57-18 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL), playing on Friday are 14-36 L/5 seasons for a for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cleveland Guardians to win 

Astros starter JAVIER is 11-2  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) JAVIER is 9-0  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. (Team's Record)

George Kirby the Mariners starter has slowed considerably of late, after a decent campaign, as is evident by a 5.16 ERA in his L/3 starts. With Houston averaging 5.8 rpg on the road this season, the Astros look like viable bets here today behind Javier going against Kirby. 

Both bullpens are viable, so the staring p[itching and offensive production considerations are what have me on the Astros. 

HOUSTON is 33-14 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 8-2 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

SEATTLE is 8-14  against the money line in September games this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 51-26 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to win 

The pitching matchup in the series opener features Atlanta right-hander Bryce Elder (12-4, 3.63) against Chicago lefty Justin Steele (16-5, 3.00). Steele has been beaten around   in his last two outings, giving up six runs in each start. He lasted only three innings and allowed six runs on eight hits in his most recent start last Wednesday against the  Pittsburgh Pirates  and is fade material here in his current form.   

ATLANTA is 24-8  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season like Steele. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 3-10 against the money line in road games against NL East opponents this season

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ATLANTA) - good offensive team ( 4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 93-31 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to win

Pittsburgh (74-81) rallied from a 9-0 deficit on Saturday, putting up 13 consecutive runs from the fourth into the eighth inning in a wild, 13-12 final and have momentum coming into this tilt in the spoilers role. Note:  Reds starter Brandon Williamson (4-5, 4.56 ERA) will start Sunday . The rookie left-hander has not posted a win since striking out nine over 6 2/3 innings against Miami on Aug. 7 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today.

CINCINNATI is 0-8  against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season this season. 

CINCINNATI is 0-6  against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

 is 1-8  against the money line in home games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse this season.

CINCINNATI is 1-10 against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse this season. 

MLB team (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 10 runs or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less are 17-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

Play on Pirates to win

Woodruff  in limited action has been brilliant  this season -- 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. In  his past five starts, Woodruff is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA and in three career starts against the Marlins, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Rinse and repeat here vs a Marlins side that is slumping as is evident by three losses in their past four games. They also have lost four of five matchups with the Brewers over the past two weeks and Im betting on them adding to those negative numbers today.

MILWAUKEE is 22-15  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. MILWAUKEE is 38-18  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

MIAMI is 16-37 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 53-109 L/26 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to win

 Rookie right-hander Bryce Miller (8-5, 3.88 ERA) will start the opener for Seattle.Miller is winless over his past five starts and has looked fatigued on occasion. Meanwhile, Right-hander Dane Dunning (10-6, 3.78) will go to the hill  for Texas. He gave up six hits in five shutout innings during a no-decision against the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday and enters this tilt in good form. Dunning won vs the the Mariners on May 10 when he gave up two runs and six hits over six innings and gets my support here tonight. 

TEXAS is 19-6 against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season.(Beat Boston 15-5 last time out)

SEATTLE is 8-20  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season

MLB Home teams (TEXAS) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season, after a combined score of 20 runs or more are 89-40 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

 MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - after 2 straight games where they committed no errors against opponent after a game they hit 4 or more home runs are 32-85 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to win 

Baltimore took out Houston yesterday by a 9-5 count and are viable options to do the same again today. The Astros dropped to 38-39 at home with four games left on the home schedule.

Orioles starter BRADISH is 10-0  against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BRADISH is 15-4  against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record)  BRADISH is 11-4 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Bradish is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA over two career starts against the Astros. The righty went  eight scoreless innings against Houston on Aug. 26, 2022, then he garnered another 8 2/3 shutout frames vs. the Astros on Sept. 22, 2022. Bradish has allowed just four hits and two walks while striking out 16 in those outings.

The flipside, Houstons starter Javier went 2-0 in five starts in August despite  of garnering  6.17 ERA and .922 opponents' OPS with 16 walks and 16 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings. In his current form he is fade material agains this type of sometimes explosive offense.

HOUSTON is 3-8  against the money line in home games in September games this season.

BALTIMORE is 12-2  against the money line in road games against AL West opponents this season.BALTIMORE is 9-4  against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season this season.

Play on Baltimore to win 

After yesterdays 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays the BoSox have now lost 8 of their L/10 games and are fade material in their current form. Yesterday the Jays snapped a 4 games losing streak and now have some momentum on their sides and with Bassit who owns a 2.55 ERA in his L/3 starts  on the hill have an edge over Boston starter Sale and a bullpen that is sub par as is evident by a 4.34 ERA on the season.

Note: Bassitt is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA vs the BoSox and his career. He beat the Red Sox on Aug. 6 after throwing seven innings of one-run ball.

SALE is 17-24  against the money line in September games since 1997. (Team's Record)

BOSTON is 12-40 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 3-17   against the money line in road games after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - revenging a same season 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 6-29 L/26 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto to win 

Left-hander David Peterson (3-8, 5.34 ERA) is slated to start for the Mets against right-hander Hunter Greene (4-6, 4.43). Greene returned from the COVID-19 injured list on Sunday, and he earned the win after allowing just an unearned run on one hit over six innings in the Reds' 7-1 victory over the visiting St. Louis Cardinals and has momentum entering this tilt as gives the Reds the advantage here today.

CINCINNATI is 11-2  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

NY METS are 4-11  against the money line in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Friday are 56-18 L/5 seasons for a76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win 

Padres starter SNELL is 10-18  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SNELL is 14-25  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Snell has had a strong season, but the Dodgers can make the best of pitcher look average. Im betting that will be the situation today. Snell has lost 2 of 3 starts vs the dodgers this season. 

LA DODGERS are 26-9  against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. LA DODGERS are 21-8  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or better ) (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 70-38 L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win 

After taking it on the chin yesterday by a 11-8 count Im betting the Dodgers come back with a big time bounce back effort today vs the Padres. 

LA DODGERS are 40-17  against the money line after a loss this season. LA DODGERS are 15-3  against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season.

LA DODGERS are 34-12 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons like the Padres starter Wacha. 

MLB  favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 88-30 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LAD to win

Philadelphia is currently four games up in the first NL Wild Card spot and will be playing hard against a team that already has their post season destiny in hand. Advantage Phillies. 

Atlantas starter MORTON is 17-32  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record) MORTON is 5-8 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.92 and a WHIP of 1.575.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - NL team with a high slugging percentage (.430 or more ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 49-104 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to win

Baltimore has won 7 straight games and has big time momentum going into this tilt. I know The Red Sox are desperate and Bello their starter is a consistent go to pitcher, but considering how explosive the Os batting order is right now very few pitchers in this league could handle them in their current form. BALTIMORE is 9-0   against the money line after 4 or more consecutive overs this season.

BOSTON is 2-9   against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.BOSTON is 4-12 against the money line in home games after allowing 10 runs or more 2 straight games since 1997.

MLB Home teams (BOSTON) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 10-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to win

The Os smashed the Bosox 11-2 yesterday and have momentum entering this tilt after 6 straight wins.

Baltimores starter FLAHERTY is 18-7 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Y is 10-1  against the money line in road games in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, Boston sends  lefty Chris Sale (6-3, 4.46). Sale's velocity has been down since he returned from a stress reaction in his left shoulder blade  , and against this type of offense could easily have problems. 

BOSTON is 6-16 against the money line in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

 Home teams (BOSTON) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 10-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to win

Padres starter SNELL is 3-14   against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)SNELL is 8-15  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

HOUSTON is 17-0  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) like the Fathers starter Snell over the last 3 seasons. Snell has pitched well overall this season, but the Astros have a recent history of taking advantage of hurlers with sub par control.  the Padres southpaw has recorded the most walks (89) and wild pitches (12) in the majors this season.

SAN DIEGO is 4-11  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. SAN DIEGO is 8-21  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.

MLB  team (HOUSTON) - after sweeping a 3 game series against a division rival, in an inter-league game are 47-11 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to win 

Dodgers starter  Kershaw (12-4, 2.48 ERA) had a six-week absence earlier this season with a wore shoulder  and since his return, and recently he has  recorded a stingy 2.12 ERA over his last 17 innings and looks to have shaken off the shoulder issues. Meanwhile his pitching opponent from the Marlins Luzardo  has pitched better of late had a  a three-start malfunction at the beginning of August when he went 0-3 with an 11.68 ERA. He can be a viable pitcher but here against this explosive Dodgers offense Im betting he relapses again. 

LA DODGERS are 83-37  against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 11-31  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 3-15  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) - team with a good SLG (.430 or better ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 39-7 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers

Twins starter GRAY is 1-7  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)

My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest  Guardians rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee (10-3, 3.03), matches up well here vs Gray and the Twins offense. Advantage Cleveland on a value line.

CLEVELAND is 23-9 against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 2-8  against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) this season. 

MINNESOTA is 1-7  against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - team with a sub par SLG (.400 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or better ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%. are 29-9 L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) are 36-13 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland 

Bostons starter BELLO is 0-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.857 and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup all that well here vs the Rays. 

TAMPA BAY is 21-5 against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - revenging a same season 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 5-29 L/26 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games against opponent with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games are 96-25 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to win 

Twins are playing much better ball than the Rangers recently winning 4 of their L/6 overall including the first two games of this series . The Rangers have been particularly inconsistent at home where they are  0-6 L/6  (-9.70 Units / -100% ROI). Advantage once again resides with the Twins as road dogs here in game 3 of this series.

Twins starter MAEDA is 2-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of 1.149 and his team has won all 3 career starts vs the Rangers. 

 Texas starter Gray   is 3-11   against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record)

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 51-25 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to win 

Clevinger (6-6, 3.32 ERA) grabbed a victory vs Oakland Athletics on Sunday behind seven innings of one-run ball with two walks and a season-high 10 strikeouts. He has been dominant against Detroit in his career, going 8-2 with a 1.63 ERA in 14 appearances, including 13 starts and Im betting his gives his team an edge here today. 

MLB  Home teams (CHI WHITE SOX) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or worse ) (AL), starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 33-16 L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago White Sox 

ATLANTA is 16-2   against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season like Dodgers starter  Urias. Note:Urias (11-7, 4.41 ERA) was the NL ERA champion a season ago, but he has been unable to  back in top form and he also has suffered injury issues missing six weeks in the first half with a hamstring injury. He has been  inconsistent since returning, registering  four starts in which he allowed one run or none, three in which he gave up two or three runs, and three in which he allowed five plus runs.

Braves starter FRIED is 16-6  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in his career. (Team's Record) FRIED is 35-12 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA DODGERS) - excellent power team (1.5 or more  HR's/game) vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.000 or less  over his last 3 starts are 6-34 L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Friday are 55-18 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win 

Chicago will  send right-hander Touki Toussaint (2-6, 4.85 ERA). He been beaten up pretty hard but did have a good start last time out vs the lowly As, which still does not get me past some of his recent ugly performances. Meanwhile, Motown will send south paw  Eduardo Rodriguez (9-7, 3.21)to the hill to face the White Sox. He is coming off a home loss to Houston on Saturday, when he allowed four runs and five hits in 4 2/3 innings with a season-high four walks and one strikeout.. In nine career starts versus Chicago covering 52 1/3 innings, he is 3-0 with a 3.61 ERA and gets my support here.RODRIGUEZ is 10-1against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CHI WHITE SOX are 17-31  against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons like Rodriguez. 

CHI WHITE SOX are 13-31 ) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games this season. (Just finished a 3 game set at Baltimore)

DETROIT is 14-10  against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season.

Play on Detroit Tigers to win 

Both these teams are red hot and both sides have starting pitchers who are in a top tier groove entering this tilt as Atlanta send Strider to the hill and the Dodgers send  the veteran Lynn. . However is must be noted that the LA DODGERS are 13-2   against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season like Strider and have an edge here playing at home. 

ATLANTA is 13-21  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

LA DODGERS are 12-1  against the money line in home games after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. LA DODGERS are 50-16  against the money line in home games after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons. 

ROBERTS is 42-12 against the money line in home games after shutting out their opponent as the manager of LA DODGERS-(Beat Arizona 7-0 last night)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 55 games at home (+14.70 Units / 14% ROI)

MLB Home teams (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 112-44 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB  team (LA DODGERS) - red hot hitting team - batting .333 or better over their last 5 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 30-9 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win 

Padres starter Hill is 0-3 along with a bloated 9.53 ERA in his L/3 starts and is once again fade material according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. HILL is 14-25   against the money line in August games in his career (Team's Record)SAN DIEGO is 39-51 against the money line against right-handed starters this season like Cards starter  Mikolas and have averaged just 4.3 rpg in offensive production vs orthodox pitching. 

SAN DIEGO is 9-18  against the money line against NL Central opponents this season.SAN DIEGO is 16-30 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

ST LOUIS is 8-1 at home  against SAN DIEGO over the last few seasons after last nights win. Note:The Cardinals have won 16 of their last 17 day games against NL West opponents following a home win.

Play on St.Louis to win 

Phillies have won 5 straight and have an edge again today vs a very inconsistent Halos. 

PHILADELPHIA is 18-4  against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season like LAA starter Detrmers. ETMERS is 6-15  against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season. (Team's Record)

Angels have  struggled vs  lefties like Phillies Sanchez during the last  month as is evident by a  56 wRC+ with a 6.8% walk rate and a 27.1% strikeout rate. 

LA ANGELS are 3-15 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season

PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 against the money line in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (LA ANGELS) - with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 15 games, playing on Wednesday are 8-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phillies to win 

The Guardians trail the first-place Twins in the AL Central by six games with 31 to play and need wins badly and will be very motivated to compete here tonight in the opener of this series. “These are going to be playoffs games,” said Laureano. “We go to Minneapolis now and then we play them again at home. This is the playoffs.”

A sense of desperation will have me backing Cleveland to bring home the cash in game 1 of this series.

Twins stater MAEDA is 6-16  against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in his career. (Team's Record)

CLEVELAND is 9-2  against the money line in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 31-15  against the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more over the last 2 seasons. 

The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 66% ROI)

MLB  team (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 9 or more innings are 15-41 L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CLEVELAND) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 50-24 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to win 

Braves are playing top tier baseball entering this game as is evident by garnering wins in 9 of their L/11 including yesterdays 7-3 win vs the Giants. I know Atlanta starter Shuster may not inspire bettors, but the Braves are a team with a winning mind set , and almost always have the edge, especially against inconsistent sides like SF  who are mired in a slump that has seen them lost 7 of their L/9 overall. 

ATLANTA is 33-9  against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) this season.ATLANTA is 39-15  against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.

SAN FRANCISCO is 2-17  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.KAPLER is 18-26  against the money line in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the manager of SAN FRANCISCO

MLB team (ATLANTA) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 41-18 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to win

Carlos Rodon (1-4, 6.27 ERA), who will make his eighth appearance in 2023 following a forearm injury in spring training, back spasms and, most recently, a left hamstring ailment. He is far 100% and fade material in his current for. the mighty Yankees have fallen and I cant see them getting up very easily . Against the Rays, the southpaw  is 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA in five career starts.

NYY starter RODON is 3-8  against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)RODON is 17-21   against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

TAMPA BAY is 40-9  against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. (Rodon qualifies)

NY YANKEES are 4-16 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NY YANKEES are 17-31against the money line in the second half of the season this season.NY YANKEES are 7-24  against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Boston right-hander Tanner Houck (3-7, 5.08 ERA) had been on the 15-day injured list with a facial fracture since June 18. Despite of the lackluster numbers, he  has registered wins in three of  his first four starts . Houck has worked at least five innings in 11 of his 14 outings and deserves respect here in his current form. The Red Sox evened the series with an 8-5 Saturday win yesterday and Im betting they turn the trick here again.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season, after 2 straight games where they committed 2 or more errors are 8-41 L/26 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boston Red Sox to win 

 Marlins will start Eury Perez (5-4, 2.91 ERA) in a battle of rookie right-handers. Washington will reply with Jake Irvin (3-5, 4.47). Irvin has struggled on the road garnering a 5.18 ERA while averaging less than 5 innings per start. Meanwhile, Perez has flourished at home , registering a stingy 1.96 ERA, in 7 starts going 3-1 in the process. PEREZ is 1-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.800.

I know the Nats have played better ball than the Marlins of late, but my power rankings suggest they matchup well here in game 2 of this seires.

WASHINGTON is 31-82 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.1 which qualifies on this run-line offering. 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season are 72-10 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.6. 

Play on the Marlins split line -1.5 run line and to win on the moneyline 

After a 10 game road trip that saw the Mariners garner a 7 game win streak at one point before losing the finale of their road adventure. Im now betting on. a huge emotional letdown situation to rare its ugly head here in the Mariners first game home . After that lengthy trip and than having their win streak abruptly end a hang over is my prediction here tonight vs the KC Royals .

SEATTLE is 12-19 against the money line after 7 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.

Arizona has come to life here in the dog days of summer, and have won 4 straight and 7 of their L/8 and deserve respect here as favs.  Arizona starter Pfaadt After posting a 9.82 ERA in his first six starts and winding up in the minors  has now garnered a  3.50 ERA  in six outings since returning for his third major league stint, and must not be under rated in his ability to hold off the Reds offense . LOVULLO is 81-62  against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the manager of ARIZONA.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CINCINNATI) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or worse) (NL), after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games are 6-38 L/26 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to win 

 Cincinnati holds a half-game lead over Arizona and the San Francisco Giants for the league's third wild-card berth and are in my opinion better than both of these sides. I know Kelly the Dbacks starter is a solid pitcher, but my pitcher vs batting order suggest that the Reds matchup well against him. 

Meanwhile,  Reds starter WILLIAMSON is 1-0 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.667 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today. 

CINCINNATI is 31-18  against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. CINCINNATI is 31-16   against the money line vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season. CINCINNATI is 12-6   against the money line when playing with a day off this season.

CINCINNATI is 8-2  against the money line in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

CINCINNATI is 3-0  against ARIZONA this season.

Play on Cincinnati Reds to win 

Ryan Pepiot (0-0, 1.80 ERA) of the Dodgers goes head to head with Gavin Williams (1-4, 3.02) of the Guardians in a battle of rookie right-handers during the regularly scheduled contest. Williams, is 0-3 in his last seven trips to the hill after being smashed around last time out. In his current form he looks to be in trouble vs an explosive Dodgers batting order that has revenge on board for losing the first game of this series 8-3 as favs. 

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - after 3 straight games where they had 7 or less hits, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games are 48-19 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Dodgers to win 

After a slow start to his season Alcantara  is now back in his  Cy Young Award form of 2022, when he went 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.980 WHIP in 32 starts.  The righty in  his last five starts  owns a  3-1 record along with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.842 WHIP during that span and gives his Marlins a good chance of a underdog win on the road today. Alcantara is 2-1 against San Diego in four career starts with a 2.16 ERA, a 1.160 WHIP and a .196 opponents' batting average.

SAN DIEGO is 37-48 against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

SAN DIEGO is 8-16  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. MELVIN is 48-57  against the money line in day games as the manager of SAN DIEGO.

Meanwhile, Padres starter LUGO is 2-7  against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)LUGO is 6-10 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record)

Play on Miami to win 

 Halos stater GIOLITO is 8-20  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GIOLITO is 9-16  against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Giolito has labored in his first four starts with the Angels, going 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA and is fade material in his current form. Meanwhile, Ashcraft has been in top form since the all star break and deserves respect here in the underdog role for the Reds.  In three starts this month, he has logged 22 innings, including eight on Aug. 4 in a no-decision against the visiting Washington Nationals. Ashcraft went seven innings in the other two and overall has garnered a very stable  2.86 ERA. .

CINCINNATI is 8-1 against the money line against AL West opponents this season

CINCINNATI is 13-5  against the money line in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons.

CINCINNATI is 10-2  against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. CINCINNATI is 12-3  against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this seaso

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA ANGELS) - with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings, in August games are 33-17 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati to win 

Right-handers Adam Wainwright (3-8, 8.42 ERA) of St. Louis and Johan Oviedo (6-13, 4.55) of Pittsburgh are scheduled to start. Both hurlers may not inspire bettors, but my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest Wainwright has the edge in the starting role.

Cards starter WAINWRIGHT is 61-30   against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record . (Team's Record) WAINWRIGHT is 25-8 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 1.179.

OVIEDO is 7-22 (against the money line after a win in his career. (Team's Record) which is what he achieved last time out. 

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more, off a loss to a division rival as a favorite are 67-125 L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on the Cards to win 

The White Sox after a come behind win yesterday that saw then score 7 runs in 8th has the Pale Hose entering this tilt with momentum. It must be noted that the visiting Mariners despite of being hot, have had a tendency to fall asleep at the proverbial wheel on occasion as is evident by going  0-7   against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start this season like the south siders starter Toussaint. Meanwhile,  Seattles starter CASTILLO is 5-11 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CASTILLO is 4-10 against the money line against AL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CASTILLO is 3-11 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - team with a poor SLG (.410 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 30-15 L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on the White Sox to win 

Giants starter Logan Webb is a quality pitcher but the Braves can make the best of hurlers look mortal. ATLANTA is 13-2  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season.Webb is just 4-5 on the road this season, and Atlanta is not an easy venue for any pitcher as is evident by Atlantas 6 rpg average offensive production in front of their own fans.

ATLANTA is 27-7 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season. ATLANTA is 30-8 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) this season.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ATLANTA) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 84-19 L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to win 

KC won the opener of this series 4-3 yesterday and have a strong opportunity of cashing again according to my projections with Brady singer on the hill/  The righty has garnered a stingy 2.05 ERA in his L/3 starts along with a even stingier 0.591 WHIP. allowing 1 hits spanning 22 innings of top quality work. He has gone an average of just under 8 innings per start and must be respected here on this value based dog offering. 

Royals starter SINGER is 16-4   against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SINGER is 8-1  against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile Justin Steele the Cubs starter has struggle of late allowing 23 hits in just 16 plus innings in his 3 most recent starts while garnering a hefty 5.51 ERA and is fade material in his current form.

KANSAS CITY is 7-1  against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

CHICAGO CUBS are 1-14   against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO CUBS are 1-11  against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the KC Royals to win 

Miami's ALCANTARA is a fine pitcher who is currently in good form but the Dodgers are a explosive offensive team that can make the best of pitchers look mortal. The Dodgers have now won 11 straight and must be respected on this money-line offering. ALCANTARA is 8-22  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) .LA DODGERS are 15-4  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season like AlCANTARA. ALCANTARA is 1-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 9.39 and a WHIP of 2.000.

MIAMI is 4-22   against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 3-19  against the money line vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .430 or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

LA DODGERS are 31-9  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. LA DODGERS are 13-1 against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games this season. LA DODGERS are 29-4  Units) against the money line in home games after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Home teams (LA DODGERS) - where team's hitters draw 4 walks or more/game on the season, after a combined score of 3 runs or less are 52-14 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home teams (LA DODGERS) - after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more are 37-11 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors, 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, in August games are 39-107 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LAD to win 

 Burnes has pitched well for the most part recently but last time out against the  Chicago White Sox, he looked a little fatigued  when he gave up five runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings in a game Milwaukee won 7-6 in 10 innings. Here against a explosive Dodgers offense that has buoyed this team to a 14-1 record in August the Brewers righty could be in trouble. Note: Burnes is just  2-2 with an 8.50 ERA over six career outings (four starts) vs the Dodgers.LA DODGERS are 38-14 ( against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better like Burnes over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, the Dodgers newest pitching acquisition has  posted a 3-0 record with a 2.00 ERA in three starts with his new club. and deserves respect here in the favorites role. 

LA DODGERS are 30-9 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, in August games are 37-105 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors,

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 84-28 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win

Baltimore's starter KREMER is 7-0 (against the money line in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)KREMER is 12-3 against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)KREMER is 8-1  against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)KREMER is 17-3   against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. KREMER is 11-2 ( against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)

SAN DIEGO is 14-27 ( against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.

(Team's Record)SAN DIEGO is 34-45 against the money line against right-handed starters  like Kremer this season averaging just 4.3 rpg in production via a ugly .228 BA. 

BALTIMORE is 9-3 against the money line in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less  errors/game in the second half of the season this season.

San Diego has lost 7 of their L/8 overall., and despite of having the talented Blake Snell on the hill are in trouble here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings.SNELL is 15-20 (  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 48-23 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win 

Giants starter WEBB is 15-6   against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record) Webb has pitched well this season, as is evident by garnering a solid 2.58 ERA at home while lasting an average of 7 innings. He is currently in good form with a 2.70 ERA in his L/3 starts and gives his team a very good chance at victory today. WEBB is 1-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 1.86 and a WHIP of 1.344.

WEBB is 15-6 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record)

Texas  starter DUNNING is 5-17  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 5-15 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+4.40 Units / 12% ROI)

Play on San Francisco to win 

SF starter COBB is 11-1 against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record) cobb has pitched his best baseball at home this season, garnering a 4-1 record along with a stingy 1.46 ERA and according to my power rankings gives the Giants an edge here tonight against the visiting Rangers. Note: Texas starter Heaney despite of some top tier recent efforts, is just   1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in six career starts against the Giants. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 19-9  against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

SAN FRANCISCO is 15-5 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.

 MLB Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a one run loss against opponent after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 62-25 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 65-19 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SF Giants to win

The Blue Jays are scheduled to start right-hander Chris Bassitt (11-6, 3.87) and according to pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well here this afternoon vs the Cubs current batting order. Bassitt is 6-2 at home this season along with a 2.56 ERA and a even stingier 0.924 WHIP. 

TORONTO is 9-0 against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 3 seasons like The Cubs starter today Steele. 

TORONTO is 25-8  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

MLB  underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, in August games are 64-162 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, in August games are 36-104 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Toronto to win

Seattle has won 7 straight but all good bad runs must come to an end, and tonight Im betting  that what happens in a matchup favoring what my power rankings suggest is the better overall side. I know the Orioles are traveling from East to west for this game , but this is a resilient group that on most nights looks like their on a mission, and they deserve respect here to pull off an underdog victory.

Orioles starter today GIBSON is 6-0   against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. (Team's Record)

Seattles starter CASTILLO is 7-11  against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)

BALTIMORE is 11-5 against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season like the Mariners starter Castillo. 

BALTIMORE is 47-23  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. BALTIMORE is 41-28 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.BALTIMORE is 35-21 against the money line in road games this season.

The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 112 games (+27.85 Units / 20% ROI)

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 49-21 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to win 

Right-hander Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.61 ERA) will take the mound for the Orioles in the finale as the Os look to salvage a game from this series. KREMER is 2-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 0.54 and a WHIP of 0.600 and Im betting he will give his team the edge today on a value line.

Baltimores starter KREMER is 12-2   against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)KREMER is 10-2  against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. (Team's Record) KREMER is 15-4 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record) KREMER is 10-4 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. (Team's Record)

BALTIMORE is 10-1  against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), in August games are 67-35 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orioles to win 

My own line on this game is closer to a pickem (even) which gives us very good value on backing the underdog in this spot play. 

Astros starter JAVIER is 6-0  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. (Team's Record) JAVIER is 9-2   against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Javier has pitched well against the Orioles the past two seasons garnering a  1.42 ERA with 17 strikeouts and three walks over four appearances, including one start, spanning 12 2/3 innings. 

HOUSTON is 9-3 ( against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season this season.

 BAKER is 90-59  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of HOUSTON.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 48-21 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to win

Martinez (5-4, 3.68 ERA) goes to the hill for a  Padres team on a  two-game losing streak allowing 21 runs in those tilts . Martinez is 0-3 with a 5.20 ERA in six career appearances against Seattle, including four starts and Im fading here today against the Seattle Mariners.  Meanwhile,Right-hander Logan Gilbert (9-5, 3.86) goes to the mound  for the Mariners .  The righty has won his past four decisions and gets my support here vs a inconsistent Padres offense, that is averaging just 4.4 rpg vs righties this season like Gilbert. 

Gilbert is 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in three career starts against San Diego. He took out the Padres 4-1 on June 6 in San Diego, limiting them to one run on three hits in seven innings, with two walks and six strikeouts. Rinse and repeat . 

GILBERT is 20-8  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

SAN DIEGO is 6-19 ( against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, in August games are 33-102 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Mariners to win 

The Royals had won 7 games in a row before losing the last two to Philadelphia. However, Im now betting on a value line bounce back for KC today vs a Boston side off losing 4 straight games , 3 of which came to division rivals the blue Jays. Thats got to hurt, and with their mental state and emotional state tattered they are at a disadvantage vs a side that is up trending and maybe a little under rated. With hard throwing LHP top tier prospect Ragans on the hill for  KC the Royals must not be underestimated. The KC southpaw can get his fastball up in the high 90s, and is not an easy hurler to face for a BoSox side that has scored more than 3 runs just twice in their L/9 games overall. Meanwhile, Bostons young starter Bello despite of showing his prowess this season, has shown some fatigue of late, and could easily be humbled here vs a KC side, that has averaged 5.6 rpg in their L/7 overall via .270 team BA. Bello did get win last time out, vs Seattle, but previous to that in two starts allowed 13 runs in 16 innings and must not be over estimated in his ability to cool off the Royals suddenly hot offense.BOSTON is 9-20  against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. ( Boston got bashed yesterday 13-1 by the Jays)

MLB Home teams (BOSTON) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 8-32 L/5 seasons for a 80% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the KC Royals to win 

Play on KC to win 

The Rangers have won 5 straight games and have momentum on their sides entering this tilt and deserve respect as short home favs . 

MIAMI is 16-40  against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons against hurlers like Texas starter Heaney. ( The Marlins have averaged just 3.9 rpg vs southpaw pitching this season.

Miami starter ALCANTARA is 6-13  against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record)

Texas ha averaged 6.2 rpg at home during this campaign. 

BOCHY is 25-14 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 as the manager of TEXAS.

MIAMI is 10-36  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), in August games are 62-32 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, in August games are 33-101 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to win 

The Rays clobbered the Tigers 8-0 in the series opener on Friday night, limiting Detroit to three hits and similar rinse and repeat situation looks to be at hand here. 

Civale (5-2, 2.34 ERA) Im betting   will primed to have a quality start for his new club. Civale, who was surprisingly dealt by the Cleveland Guardians to the Tampa Bay Rays for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo.  He has been dominant in his career vs the Tigers as is evident by garnering 7-0 record along  with a stingy 2.06 ERA in 10 starts and will once again give his team an edge here in Motown this afternoon. Rays starter CIVALE is 25-10 ) against the money line with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CIVALE is 22-9 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CIVALE is 19-11  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, the Tigers starter  lefty Tarik Skubal (1-1, 4.57 ERA), who will be making his sixth start of the season according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well vs a Rays side that averages 5.7 rpg this season vs southpaw hurlers. Skubal has recorded a ugly 7.24 ERA in his L/3 starts and Im betting he will be cannon fodder again today. 

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, starting a pitcher who gave up 2  or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 36-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300) or less  -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts are 28-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on the Tampa Bay Rays to win 

The Astros are up-trending and are now  13-7 since the All-Star break, after a 7-3 victory vs the NYY on Friday. With newly acquired Verlander on the hill for the Astros, Im betting on the road team cashing here again.  Verlander was 61-19 with a 2.26 ERA for the Astros in 102 regular-season starts and posted nine postseason wins, including three over the Yankees and Im sure will be motivated to put forward a top tier effort here again in his return . Veralnder is  5-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last eight regular-season starts against the Yankees. 

Meanwhile the Astros get to go against left-hander Nestor Cortes (5-2, 5.16 ERA), who is returning from a left rotator cuff strain for his first start since allowing two runs in five innings on May 30 in Seattle. Rust will be a factor here for Cotres vs a Astros side, that has averaged  5.5 rpg vs LHP this season. Cortes is 1-1 with an 8.04 ERA in six regular-season appearances (three starts) against Houston. Note: Astros are v 62-25 v against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (HOUSTON) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, starting a pitcher who gave up 2  or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 36-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (HOUSTON) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300) or less  -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts are 28-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on the Houston Astros  to win 

Braves starter FRIED is 19-4  against the money line against NL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record) FRIED is 4-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 1.57 and a WHIP of 0.826.

ATLANTA is 12-1 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season like like cubs starter  Hendricks.  

HENDRICKS is 1-4 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 7.22 and a WHIP of 1.901.

The pitching matchup and overall head to head data according to my power rankings supports a Cubs selection, at a slightly elevated money-line offering. However the edge is significant enough for me to lay a little more lumber than usual. 

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHICAGO CUBS) - after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, in August games are 5-35 L/26 seasons for a 88% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ATLANTA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less ) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games are 63-18 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta Braves to win. 

Baltimore leads the season series 7-2 after yesterdays 4-1 loss. They did win the first two games of this series, and are in bounce back mode here today. 

Orioles newly acquired  starter today Flaherty (7-6, 4.43 ERA) has faced the Blue Jays just once in his seven-year career, and it was this season. Back April 1 in St. Louis, Flaherty at that time with the Cards picked up the win, allowing no runs or hits but walking seven in five innings. He stuck out four. Flaherty garnered a very stable  3.45 ERA in his final 12 starts with the Cardinals, including a 3.03 ERA in five July outings and Im betting he matches up well here vs a Toronto side that has slowed down precipitously on offense of late and on the season have only average 4.2 rpg at home . 

Jays starter today GAUSMAN is 7-12  ) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) GAUSMAN is 4-9   against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GAUSMAN is 4-10 (  against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

BALTIMORE is 10-4  against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season like Torontos starter Gausman. 

Baltimore's starter FLAHERTY is 16-6   against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

BALTIMORE is 16-8   against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 47-21 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to win

The Royals are off a 3-0 sweep of the Minnesota Twins last time out and have momentum entering this home series against the NY mets. 

Southpaw Jose Quintana (0-2, 3.27 ERA) is expected to start for the Mets against Royals right-hander Zack Greinke (1-11, 5.49). ( Greinke despite of sub par overall stats, has pitched his best baseball at home this season where he has garnered a stable 3.74 ERA. GREINKE is 52-13 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) Greinke is 5-1 with a 3.49 ERA in nine regular-season starts against the Mets.

QUINTANA is 10-17 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more since 1997. (Team's Record) QUINTANA is 6-14 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)

 NY METS are 2-9  against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season.

MLB team (KANSAS CITY) - after sweeping a 3 game series against a division rival, in an inter-league game are 46-11 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the KC Royals to win 

Orioles starter GIBSON is 7-1  against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)GIBSON is also a perfect  5-0   against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. (Team's Record)Baltimore has won five of six games against Toronto this season and matchup well here again in the first game of this series.

TORONTO is 7-20  against the money line against division opponents this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 46-21 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win 

Yankees stater SEVERINO is 0-7 (against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). SEVERINO is 1-10  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)Severino owns a less than pretty looking 6.90 ERA over his L/3 starts , and owns a 0-3 record on the road this season along with a 7.62 ERA and fade material in his current form. 

Orioles starter KREMER is 11-2  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)KREMER is 15-6  against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)KREMER is 15-4  against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

The starting pitching matchup favors the Orioles, and Im recommending we back the home side because of this tonight.

BOONE is 27-55  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 as the manager of NY YANKEES.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (NY YANKEES) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70) -AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 10-40 L/5 seasons for. a against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Baltimore to win 

Oaklands starter Luis Medina has not faired well on the road this season, going 0-4 in 4 starts along with a ugly looking 9.87 ERA. Im betting things will go for bad to worse in their launching pad known as Coors Field. 

OAKLAND is 6-39  against the money line in day games this season.  

COLORADO is 7-1  against the money line in home games when playing on Sunday this season.

OAKLAND is 18-61  against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season. KOTSAY is 18-56  against the money line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors as the manager of OAKLAND.

MLB team (COLORADO) - average NL offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against an average AL starter (ERA 4.30 to 5.70), hot hitting team - batting .305 or better over their last 5 games are 30-8 L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado to win 

Right-hander Zack Littell (0-2, 5.11) is the scheduled starter for Tampa Bay on Sunday My power rankings suggest he does not matchup well vs the Astros batting order. With the Astros offense continuing upward momentum with Jose Altuve back in the line up the home side looks like viable investment option. 

Note: Astros wRC+ ( 109 )over the last 30 days,

Meanwhile, Astros hurler Bielak in  four starts since being recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land on July 3  is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA. Houston has won three of those starts.

TAMPA BAY is 6-16  against the money line in July games this season.

HOUSTON is 41-16  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 21-9  against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 12-3 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BAKER is 48-18  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of HOUSTON.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better ) -AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games are 7-29 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to win

The Tigers  rank 28th in MLB scoring (3.9), two spots below Miami (4.1) and Im betting the tigers offense also suffers to produce here today vs  

Marlins veteran right-hander starter Johnny Cueto who is coming off a top shelf start on July 22, when he held the Colorado Rockies to just two hits.  Hes been suffering injury issues of late, but is now healthy and looking strong and deserves respect here. Cueto has faired well against  against the Tigers, going 2-2 with a 2.34 ERA in six career starts covering 42 1/3 innings. Rinse and repeat on board.

MIAMI is 13-5  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season like Motown starter  Brieske.

MIAMI is 19-4  against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season.

MIAMI is 13-4  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.

MLB  Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season are 71-10 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors and a perfect 9-0 this season for a 100% conversion rate. 

Play on Miami to win 

 . The Angels are scheduled to start left-hander Reid Detmers (2-7, 4.38 ERA) and my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest he does matchup well here. He garnered  a no-decision against the Blue Jays on April 9 after allowing five runs, four earned, on five hits in five-plus innings and my projections estimate another down effort. 

The Toronto Blue Jays took the opener of their three-game series against the visiting Los Angeles Angels 4-1 on Friday and Im betting they grab the cheese again. 

LA ANGELS are 8-18  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season, after 2 straight games where they committed 2 or more errors are 8-40 L/26 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season, after 2 straight games where they committed 2 or more errors are 9-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Toronto to win 

Right-hander Logan Gilbert (8-5, 3.88) has won his last three decisions for Seattle and owns a 6-1 record on the road along with a stable 3.26 ERA and a stingy 0.935 WHIP. GILBERT is 12-2   against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GILBERT is 13-4  against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) GILBERT is 21-9   against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Meanwhile, Diamondbacks left-hander Tommy Henry (5-3, 4.01 ERA) will start. He has lost his last two trips to the hill while lasting just 4 1/3 innings in each time. He is backed by a shaky bullpen, as the over pitching staff have allowed seven or more runs in eight games since the All-Star break and in their current form are fade material.

ARIZONA is 1-11  against the money line in home games against AL West opponents over the last 3 seasons.ARIZONA is 3-13  against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse this season.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SEATTLE) - AL team with a low slugging percentage (.410 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less  hitters each of his last 2 outings are 53-16 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to win