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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
04-08-21	Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9		7-3	Win	100	12 h 34 m	Show
Sorry to inform the Orioles that this is not 2013. Matt Harvey isn't good. Harvey's ERA the past three seasons: 11.57 last season, 7.09 in 2019 and 7.00 in 2018. Yet the Orioles have Harvey in their rotation and he's starting today against the Red Sox, who scored 26 runs the past three days in sweeping the Rays. Boston already has gotten a look at Harvey. They faced him five days ago getting two runs and six hits off him in 4 2/3 innings. Eduardo Rodriguez takes the hill for Boston, which is why this total opened at less than double-digits. Rodriguez had a strong 2018 season, but he missed last year and has yet to pitch this season. He's backed by a horrendous bullpen. Baltimore's Camden Yards is one of the best hitting parks in the majors. Good weather, too, with temperatures in the 60's and the wind blowing out to left at 11 mph.
04-07-21	Diamondbacks v. Rockies -109	Top	0-8	Win	100	15 h 15 m	Show
Mad-Bum is turning into just Bum. OK, that is being too hard on Madison Bumgarner. He's not a bum, but he's certainly also not the pitcher he was during his prime with the Giants when he was throwing 94 mph. Bumgarner gets the start here at Coors Field, the best hitting park in the majors. The price is right to fade him especially with the Diamondbacks' bullpen in a state of flux with closer Joakim Soria out with a calf injury. Bumgarner went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA last year, permitting an astonishing 66 baserunners in only 41 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks signed him to a huge contract hoping his fastball would return and his command would improve. So far that hasn't happened. His velocity still is down and he hasn't regained his command. That was evident again in Bumgarner's first start when he gave up six runs on seven hits, including two homers, in four innings against the Padres opening day. That game was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, too. Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela didn't pitch well either in his first start this season. He was tagged for seven on nine hits in just 3 1/3 innings by the Dodgers, who could have the best offense in baseball. I have more confidence in Senzatela bouncing back than Bumgarner. Senzatela turned a corner last season going 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA. I like the Rockies' lineup better than the Diamondbacks, especially with Arizona missing injured shortstop Nick Ahmed and outfielder Kole Calhoun.
04-05-21	Pirates v. Reds OVER 9		3-5	Loss	-115	16 h 53 m	Show
Two young unproven pitchers throwing at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with the wind blowing out to left and a single-digit total. Yep that's what we have in this matchup and it spells Over the total for me. Pittsburgh is going with JT Brubaker. He was 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA last season as a rookie. The Reds have started the season hot offensively scoring 27 runs, including six homers, in three games against the Cardinals and their respectable pitching staff. Cincinnati is pitching rookie Jose De Leon, who pitched six innings last season. De Leon gave up 12 runs on a combined 17 hits/walks during that short span. The weather forecast is for wind blowing out to left field at 9-10 mph. Monday Free Play Rays minus $1.17 at Red Sox It appears the 24-36 Red Sox of 2020 wasn't a mirage. Boston really is this bad. How else to explain opening the season by getting swept at home by the Orioles? These losses weren't especially close either. Baltimore outscored Boston, 18-5. Perhaps this is an overreaction to the Red Sox and maybe the Orioles are an improved team. Having Trey Mancini back certainly is a plus for Baltimore. But I do know this: The Red Sox aren't nearly in the class of Tampa Bay. So laying this short price with the Rays makes plenty of sense to me. The Rays didn't play Sunday. A rare day off on a Sunday and a strong plus for a team that relies heavily on a deep bullpen. Tampa Bay did lose, 12-7, to the Marlins two days ago after winning the first two games of that series. The Rays finished last season 18-5 after losing in their previous game. They also have enjoyed tremendous success at Fenway Park beating the Red Sox in 13 of their past 16 visits to Boston. The starting pitching matchup is Michael Wacha versus Nick Pivetta. I'm not fond of either pitcher. I'd prefer Wacha given a choice. But this is not a starting pitcher-driven handicap for me. I don't expect either Wacha or Pivetta to be around too long. It comes down to the Rays being the much superior team, the Red Sox already struggling and perhaps mentally affected and this being a low enough price to back the road favorite.
04-04-21	Indians -124 v. Tigers		9-3	Win	100	9 h 8 m	Show
Cleveland's Aaron Civale is one of those below-the-radar pitchers that I am high on this season. I believe Civale will be one of the more improved pitchers this season. Civale hasn't had trouble with the Tigers in the past going 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in four career starts with two of those wins occurring at Comerica Park. The Tigers are going with Tarik Skubal. He could be good in a couple of years, but right now Skubal is learning his craft. He was 1-4 with a 5.63 ERA as a rookie last season.
04-04-21	Braves -115 v. Phillies		1-2	Loss	-115	9 h 4 m	Show
After going against Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Braves step down in pitching class. The Braves draw Zach Eflin as they try to prevent the Phillies from achieving a three-game sweep. Eflin has yet to prove himself special. Braves starter Ian Anderson has. Anderson gave a glimpse into his high ceiling during his rookie season last year going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings. The Phillies have never faced him.
04-03-21	Giants -114 v. Mariners		0-4	Loss	-114	13 h 36 m	Show
There wasn't a better pitching during spring training than San Francisco's Logan Webb, who went 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in five starts. Webb's strikeout-to-walk ratio was 22-to-2. So I'll take a shot with Webb and the superior team against the lowly Mariners, who will be going with Chris Flexen, who was pitching in South Korea last season. Sure spring training statistics can't be trusted. But still I'd rather go with a hot spring training pitcher than Flexen, who has never proven himself in the majors and has a horrendous bullpen behind him. Already the Mariners' relief staff has given up five runs (four earned) during seven innings.
04-03-21	White Sox -119 v. Angels		3-5	Loss	-119	13 h 33 m	Show
The White Sox are an emerging team with plenty of talent even minus highly-promising Eloy Jimenez. They are going with veteran Lance Lynn on the mound against Alex Cobb. Cobb has been one of the worst starters in the majors during the last three years going 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA in 41 starts. Those were with Baltimore. The Angels are hoping Cobb can emulate Dylan Bundy's success. Bundy, too, was with the Orioles before coming to the Angels and having much better results. I don't believe that's going to happen. Certainly not against the White Sox where Cobb's lifetime ERA is 13.89 in three starts versus Chicago. Lynn is much the better pitcher and he has a good history against the Angels. Lynn was 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three starts versus the Angels last season. I much prefer the White Sox's bullpen over the Angels' relievers, too. The Angels received just three innings from Andrew Heaney on Friday so their bullpen already is getting stretched out.
04-03-21	Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Padres		0-7	Loss	-110	12 h 5 m	Show
I like the Padres to make a run at the Dodgers in the NL West. But there are going to be spots where San Diego is overpriced. This is one of them in a pitching matchup of Caleb Smith versus Joe Musgrove. Smith showed potential with the Marlins and he had a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the Diamondbacks after being traded to them last season. Smith is 2-1 lifetime versus the Padres with a 2.01 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts. Musgrove went 1-5 in eight starts with the Pirates last season. His lifetime numbers are 29-38 with a 4.33 ERA, which includes 83 starts. He might get more victories pitching for the Padres, but I consider him a lower-end starter, who should not be in this price range. The Diamondbacks have some underrated power. If Ketel Marte returns to form, the Diamondbacks could surprise. Marte is off to a fast start going 6-for-10 with four extra base hits, including two homers.
04-02-21	Giants +116 v. Mariners	Top	6-3	Win	116	14 h 40 m	Show
No way am I buying Yusei Kikuchi as a favorite. The left-handed Kikuchi has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors during his two-year stint compiling a 5.46 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP in 2019 and a 5.17 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP last season. San Francisco just faced a lefty starter on Thursday and scored five earned runs in six innings off Marco Gonzales, a much better pitcher than Kikuchi. Seattle has one of the worst bullpens in the majors, too. Giants starter Johnny Cueto isn't the star he was with the Reds, but he's still solid. I consider him the Giants' best starter. Cueto has a 2.41 lifetime ERA against Seattle in three starts. San Francisco's bullpen is better than it showed in its 8-7 extra inning loss to the Mariners on Thursday. The Mariners remain without perhaps their most talented player as outfielder Kyle Lewis has a knee injury.
04-01-21	Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5		7-8	Loss	-110	12 h 35 m	Show
Far superior team. Far superior starting pitcher and a stronger bullpen.The Padres check the boxes here. That's why they are such a strong favorite. I have to believe they are going to win this game by at least two runs so I'm going to lay them on the run line to avoid the heavy juice. The Diamondbacks appear to have made a foolish investment in Madison Bumgarner signing him to a five-year, $85 million contract. Bumgarner still is just 31, but he has a lot of wear-and-tear that showed itself last season when he went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA in nine starts. Bumgarner doesn't have a good history at Petco Park either with a 5-9 career record and 4.38 ERA. How bad is Arizona's bullpen? Joakim Soria is the closer. So Bumgarner isn't going to get any relief help. The Padres posted their highest winning percentage last season going 37-23. They look even better this season. Yu Darvish is one reason for this. He finished No. 2 in the Cy Young Award balloting with an 8-3 record and 2.01 ERA in 12 starts in 2020. He has a 2.93 lifetime ERA versus the Diamondbacks in five starts with 53 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings.
10-27-20	Rays +130 v. Dodgers	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	17 h 15 m	Show
The Rays have met adversity several times in the postseason. I expect them to live again and force Game 7 of the World Series. I'll take a plus price with Blake Snell against Tony Gonsolin. Snell should give the Rays five solid innings. I can't say that about Gonsolin, who hasn't pitched as well in the playoffs as he did during the regular season. Gonsolin has pitched 7 2/3 innings in the postseason giving up seven walks and three homers. I also trust the Rays' bullpen more than the Dodgers' relievers. Closer Kenley Jansen certainly can't be trusted anymore. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is saving Walker Buehler in case there's a Game 7. He said Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias will not pitch in this game. Those are the three best Dodgers pitchers.
10-21-20	Rays v. Dodgers -145	Top	6-4	Loss	-145	17 h 22 m	Show
Momentum is crucial in the baseball playoffs. The Dodgers have it. The Rays don't. LA has won four in a row after being on the brink of elimination from the Braves. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in its last five games. The Rays haven't played well since going up 3-0 on the Astros in the ALCS. It doesn't hurt the Dodgers' chances that they are the superior team with both great hitting and pitching. The Dodgers led the Majors averaging 5.8 runs per game. They are averaging 5.5 runs in their last four games. Cody Bellinger has come alive smacking three homers during the last three games. The Rays don't have the offense to match LA's. Tampa Bay is averaging 3.1 runs in its last 10 games. The Rays are going with lefty Blake Snell, who has allowed seven runs in his last 14 postseason innings spread across three starts. He hasn't completed six innings during any of his playoff starts this season. This isn't the vintage Snell of three seasons ago. The Dodgers are 17-6 versus lefties this year, including 4-1 during the postseason. Tampa Bay is going up against Dodgers pitching that has allowed three or fewer runs in four straight games. The Rays are going to be looking at Tony Gonsolin and probably Julio Urias in this game. Gonsolin had a 2.31 ERA in the regular season with a 0.84 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings. Urias has a 0.56 ERA and 4-0 record in 16 playoff innings this season spread across four appearances. The Dodgers have won 77 percent of the time they've been favored during the past 56 instances.
10-20-20	Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	3-8	Loss	-129	20 h 19 m	Show
Clayton Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation - when it comes to the regular season. Kershaw just isn't the same pitcher in the World Series where he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA. All together, Kershaw has made 35 postseason appearances and has a losing record with a 4.31 ERA. Kershaw also has been dealing with back problems. Kershaw is going to have to deal with the hottest power hitter in the playoffs, Randy Arozarena. He's smacked seven homers in 55 postseason at bats. So there's an excellent chance Tampa Bay can keep this game within one run, if not win outright. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Rays would be 11-3 in the playoffs. LA would be 4-5 in its last nine games if minus 1 1/2 runs. The teams were idle on Monday. The Rays are 9-2 following an off day. Tampa Bay is pitching Tyler Glasnow. He's prone to the long ball, but is a huge strikeout pitcher. He struck out 91 batters in 57 1/3 innings during the regular season and has fanned 25 in 19 1/3 postseason innings.
10-17-20	Astros v. Rays -116		2-4	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
Hated or not, the Astros have done a great job winning three in a row to force a Game 7 in this ALCS. But I want the Rays going for me in this winner-take-all matchup. Tampa Bay has the much deeper bullpen, is the better fielding team and Kevin Cash is a superior manager to Dusty Baker. I also prefer Charlie Morton over Lance McCullers in the starting pitching matchup. Morton has given up 3 or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. He is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in the postseason this year. He beat the Astros in Game 2 firing five scoreless innings. Morton is 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 playoff appearances that includes 10 starts. McCullers is a feast-or-famine type pitcher. He's allowed five homers during his last two starts spanning 11 innings. The last four innings could be taken over by the bullpens. The Rays hold a big edge there especially with Houston's top bullpen guys dealing with fatigue issues.
10-16-20	Astros v. Rays -130	Top	7-4	Loss	-130	15 h 14 m	Show
The Astros have some momentum winning two in a row to keep their season alive down 3-2 in the best-of-seven ALCS. Only twice all season has Tampa Bay lost more than two in a row. I don't see the Rays losing a third consecutive game. Tampa Bay has the more established starting pitcher, superior bullpen and better manager. Blake Snell won the AL Cy Young Award three seasons ago. He's been strong this season and during the playoffs. Snell defeated Houston five days ago holding the Astros to one run in five innings. The Astros are going with Framber Valdez, who has posted solid numbers but has control issues and gives up the long ball. Valdez has issued seven walks in his 18 innings of postseason work and has surrendered three homers during his last two starts.
10-15-20	Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9		2-10	Win	100	15 h 58 m	Show
The Dodgers got their bats going in big fashion scoring 15 runs against the Braves on Wednesday. The Braves are in trouble here having to go with rookie Bryse Wilson, who has never started a postseason game. This has the makings of a bullpen game for the Braves. Multiple relievers isn't the way to beat the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is slated to start for LA. Kershaw isn't a sure thing anymore especially after he was scratched two days earlier because of back spasms. Kershaw pitched wll against the Brewers and Padres in the playoffs, but prior to this season his playoff numbers were 9-11 with a 4.43 ERA. The Braves scored 13 runs, produced 18 hits with five homers during the first two games of this series before losing, 15-3, Wednesday. Cory Blaser is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 57 percent of the time he's been behind the dish the past two years.
10-14-20	Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves	Top	15-3	Win	100	16 h 26 m	Show
The Braves have captured the first two games of this NLCS matchup. But this sets up to be the Dodgers' spot. Given Clayton Kershaw's uncertain status following a flare-up of back trouble, Julio Urias might be LA's most reliable pitcher. Urias was 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.14 WHIP during the regular season. He's followed that up by being unscored upon in eight innings of postseason work striking out 11 while issuing just a single walk. Urias is a blazing 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP during his last three appearances spanning 14 innings. Atlanta has some vulnerability when you get past its first couple of starters. That's the case here with Kyle Wright getting the start. He was 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 ratio during the regular season. Wright pitched much better in his one playoff appearance shutting out the Marlins in six innings of work. The Dodgers aren't the Marlins. No team scored more runs and hit more homers than the Dodgers. The Dodgers have professional hitters who can take a walk if need be. Wright lacks good control as evidenced by his walking 24 batters in 38 innings.
10-13-20	Rays v. Astros +101	Top	5-2	Loss	-100	17 h 30 m	Show
I have nothing but admiration for Rays manager Kevin Cash. He's an out-of-the-box thinker and one of the best managers in baseball. He has the Rays on the verge of going to the World Series. Tampa Bay leads Houston 2-0 in the American League Championship Series. Now, though, is the time to step in with the Astros, who are 8-1 the last nine times they've been a playoff underdog. Tampa Bay has outscored Houston by just three runs in the two games. The Rays only have 10 hits in the series. The Astros have been dogged by leaving 21 men on base during these two games, victimized by outstanding and clutch Tampa Bay fielding plays and suffering bad luck and misfortune with some of their hard hit balls. Not that I feel sorry for the cheating Astros. But I do think they are due for a victory here. The starting pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus lefty Ryan Yarbrough. Urquidy had a 2.73 ERA in five regular-season starts. This will be his third postseason start. The Rays have never faced him giving Urquidy the element of surprise. Yarbrough has never started a playoff game. The Astros rank in the top five against lefthanded pitching in batting average and a number of metric categories, including slugging percentage and OPS.
10-08-20	Braves v. Marlins +130		7-0	Loss	-100	12 h 28 m	Show
The Braves have outclassed the Marlins during the first two games of this playoff series. But now the Marlins are an enticing underdog facing elimination in a battle of young starting pitchers. I prefer Sixto Sanchez against Atlanta's Kyle Wright. These two pitchers went up against each other on Sept. 8. It was no contest: Miami won, 8-0. That game was in Atlanta. This matchup is at neutral site Houston. Sanchez displayed his vast potential during his last start. That came six days ago against the Cubs in the postseason. Sanchez held the Cubs scoreless in five innings posting six strikeouts. Miami won that game, 2-0. Wright made eight regular-season starts going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA. Career-wise against Miami in three starts, Wright is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA.
10-07-20	Rays v. Yankees OVER 9	Top	8-4	Win	100	13 h 14 m	Show
Perhaps there is something to the theory of baseballs being juiced for the playoffs. The Rays and Yankees have played two games in their series. There have been 12 runs scored in each game. There also have been a combined 12 home runs! Now the Yankees are a top-five team in runs and homers, while the Rays have an above average offense, too. But these games are being played at neutral site Petco Park, which is the best pitching park in the majors. I'm going to ride this power parade with the full expectations that each team should be good for at least four runs apiece given their offenses and a starting pitching matchup of Charlie Morton versus Masahiro Tanka. The 36-year-old Morton hasn't reached the sixth inning in any of his starts this season. He's given up three earned runs in three of his last four starts. Giancarlo Stanton has a good history against Morton and Stanton is in a great power groove with five homers so far in the postseason. Tanka has allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts spanning 15 innings. He's given up six walks in his past two starts spanning eight innings. He's also surrendered nine homers this season in 48 innings.
10-06-20	Yankees v. Rays -119		5-7	Win	100	15 h 37 m	Show
I see the Rays bouncing back from their Game 1 loss to the Yankees on Monday. The Rays are 8-3 versus the Yankees this season and hold a starting pitching edge in a matchup of Tyler Glasnow versus 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia. Glasnow has lived up to his high ceiling when he has been healthy, which he is now. Tampa Bay has won during each of Glasnow's last nine starts this year. Garcia had a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings this season. I'd rather take my chances with Glasnow and lay a little higher juice.
10-05-20	Yankees v. Rays +137		9-3	Loss	-100	13 h 32 m	Show
I don't get the Rays being an underdog especially in this high of a range. Tampa Bay won the AL East Division title. The Rays achieved this in part by defeating the Yankees in eight of 10 meetings. Yeah, I get righthander Gerrit Cole is going for New York. But Cole struggled against the Rays this season posting a 4.96 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, while surrendering five homers. The Rays are 31-12 against righty starters. Tampa Bay also has won 10 of the last 12 times it has been a 'dog. The Yankees go against lefty Blake Snell, the former Cy Young Award winner who was solid this season with a 3.24 ERA. Snell gave up three runs on four hits to the Yankees this season in eight innings. Snell was sharp in his last start this past Tuesday holding the Blue Jays scoreless in 5 2/3 innings allowing only one hit and striking out nine. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefty starters. They ranked 25th in batting average against southpaws. Note that the game is being played at San Diego's Petco Park. This neutral site favors the Rays because of the spacious dimensions and being the premier pitcher's park. The Yankees are the more powerful team so they're hurt more by the ballpark configurations.
10-02-20	Cardinals +105 v. Padres		0-4	Loss	-100	8 h 55 m	Show
I'll take Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty against a motley crew of overworked Padres pitchers. The Padres' bullpen is extremely overworked after their first two game starters, Chris Paddack and Zach Davies, managed just a combined 4 1/3 innings. San Diego is in this jam because their two best starters, Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, are injured. Flaherty didn't have the dominant season he had last year, but he's still darn good and has a strong history versus the Padres with a 1.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three career starts. The Padres were averaging just 3.8 runs during their last 13 games until scoring 11 runs yesterday.
10-02-20	Marlins v. Cubs -1.5		2-0	Loss	-100	13 h 30 m	Show
In Yu we trust. The Cubs are in must-win mode and going with their top pitcher, Yu Darvish. He had a Cy Young Award-type season going 8-3 in 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA. Darvish has been excellent for the Cubs now for the last 1 1/2 years posting a 2.40 ERA since last season's All-Star Game. Darvish could catch a big break if the Marlins' most dangerous hitter, Starling Marte, can't play after he got hit in the hand with a pitch on Wednesday. The Marlins are going with rookie Sixto Sanchez, who has a high ceiling but perhaps hit a rookie wall during his final two regular season starts when he gave up nine runs in seven innings.
10-01-20	Reds +121 v. Braves		0-5	Loss	-100	9 h 9 m	Show
The Reds had the better starting pitcher going in Game 1 of this playoff series yesterday with Trevor Bauer. Cincinnati should have won, but lost 1-0 in 13 innings. The Reds outhit the Braves, 11-6, with three of Atlanta's hits coming in the 13th inning. Cincinnati stranded 13 baserunners going 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position. It was a highly frustrating loss not just for the underdog Reds, but anyone who had them on Wednesday me included. Now we have a similar situation. The Reds have the better starting pitcher going and once again are underdogs. Those two factors put me right back on Cincinnati. Luis Castillo has emerged as one of the National League's better pitchers during the last two years making the All-Star team last season. Castillo held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts this season. Castillo is more proven than Ian Anderson, the Braves' highly promising rookie starter. This is just Anderson's seventh big league start. Despite the loss on Wednesday, the Reds still have won 11 of their last 15 games.
09-30-20	Cardinals +1.5 v. Padres		7-4	Win	100	15 h 21 m	Show
The Padres are less than thrilled starting Chris Paddack in this series opener. They wanted to go with Dinelson Lamet, but he left his last start this past Friday with tightness in his biceps. San Diego is worried about Paddack's lack of consistency. They have good reason to feel this way since Paddack has surrendered four or more runs while not reaching the sixth inning in four of his last eight starts. The Cardinals are starting Kwang Hyun Kim instead of ace Jack Flaherty. I understand the thinking behind this. Kim is a lefty, who the Padres have never faced. The Padres are 27-13 against righthanders, but just 10-10 versus southpaws. Kim is no slouch either going 3-0 this season with a 1.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The Padres are averaging 3.7 runs in their last nine games. Paddack could be on or off. So I'm going to take the extra half-run and lay juice believing this has the makings of a 4-3 type game.
09-30-20	White Sox v. A's -120	Top	3-5	Win	100	13 h 19 m	Show
The road White Sox were a sharp play against the A's in Tuesday's opening series game. But the dynamics are different for this Game 2 in a pitching matchup of lefty Dallas Keuchel versus Chris Bassitt. This isn't a fade on Keuchel, who has pitched well again this season. The A's, though, are 11-3 against lefties this season and Bassitt has been highly underrated. He's given up just one run during his last four starts spanning 26 2/3 innings. Bassitt has been particularly strong at home with a 0.72 ERA in six starts at Oakland Coliseum this season. The White Sox have lost the last seven times they've gone against a righty starter. Chicago also has lost the past six times it has been an underdog.
09-30-20	Reds +117 v. Braves		0-1	Loss	-100	11 h 36 m	Show
Give me Trevor Bauer at a plus price like this and I'm on the underdog Reds. Bauer is in line to win the NL Cy Young Award posting a 1.73 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Bauer is in strong form, too, posting a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts. The Reds are peaking at the right time winning 11 of their last 14 games. Max Fried was excellent, too, for the Braves with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts. Fried, though, has a 5.14 ERA in three career appearances versus the Reds and had to leave his last start a week ago because of an ankle injury. So it remains to be seen if he'll be 100 percent. The Braves have the better offense. But Bauer should neutralize them. The Reds finished seventh in the majors in homers.
09-29-20	Blue Jays v. Rays -1.5	Top	1-3	Win	110	16 h 36 m	Show
Normally the Blue Jays would go with their top pitcher, Hyun Jin Ryu, in Game 1 of this playoff series. But Ryu is coming off a 100-pitch game against the Yankees this past Thursday. So Toronto doesn't want to use Ryu on only three day's rest. Instead the Blue Jays are going with Matt Shoemaker, who has pitched just three innings since Aug. 21 because of right shoulder injury. Shoemaker has a 4.71 ERA and figures to be rusty. He last pitched eight days ago. Tampa Bay is extremely tough at Tropicana Park. The Rays have won 40 of the last 53 times there for 75 percent. Tampa Bay is hot, too, going 9-2 in its past 11 games. Blake Snell gets the call for the Rays. Snell won the Cy Young Award three seasons ago and has been a solid 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA this season. He has a career 2.81 ERA versus Toronto in 13 starts.
09-25-20	Reds v. Twins -142	Top	7-2	Loss	-142	12 h 53 m	Show
The Twins, behind Jose Berrios, should take care of business at home against the Reds. Minnesota is 23-5 (82 percent) at home. That's the best home mark in baseball. The Reds have a losing road record. Berrios has a history of pitching his best at Target Field. He has a 2.67 ERA there this season holding batters to a .168 batting average. Berrios is in outstanding form, too, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four starts this month. Cincinnati has had a down year from many of its hitters. The Reds rank 30th in batting average and 28th in runs scored. The Reds also don't win when Tyler Mahle pitches. Mahle has a career Reds record of 13-25. His road ERA is 4.97 this season and he can be homer-prone. The Twins set a record for most homers last season and rank fifth in home runs this year. Minnesota won't lack incentive either being just one-half game ahead of the White Sox for first place in the AL Central.
09-24-20	Orioles +136 v. Red Sox		13-1	Win	136	14 h 24 m	Show
The Red Sox have had some great years. This isn't one of them. Boston has a worse record than Baltimore. So I'm not buying the Red Sox being this large of a favorite against the Orioles in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus lefty Martin Perez. Both are lower-tier rotation type starters. Cobb was solid in his last outing giving up two runs on four hits in six innings this past Friday against the Rays. He's been solid, too, in two starts versus Boston this season giving up a combined three runs on 10 hits in 10 1/3 innings. Cobb's 4.76 season ERA is lower than Perez's lifetime ERA against the Orioles. Note, too, that the Orioles are a .500 team when going against a southpaw starter.
09-23-20	Brewers v. Reds OVER 8.5		1-6	Loss	-108	8 h 1 m	Show
It's taken all season, but the Brewers' bats have heated up. Milwaukee is averaging 6.3 runs in its last eight games. The Reds should do plenty of scoring drawing Adrian Houser. He hasn't been good since his first two starts of the season. Since then Houser's gone 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA. Houser has a 6.39 ERA in his last three starts not getting out of the fifth inning in any of those starts. Cincinnati ranks seventh in the league in homers. Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitting parks in the majors. The total is less than 9,though, because Trevor Bauer gets the start for the Reds. He's been outstanding this year. However, this is the first time all season Bauer is pitching on three day's rest. Bauer was tagged for two homers in a 5-0 loss to the White Sox this past Saturday. Those pitches weren't mistake pitches either. Bauer said they were in the location he wanted. That's a red flag that maybe Bauer will be vulnerable pitching on less rest than normal.
09-22-20	Rays -122 v. Mets	Top	2-5	Loss	-122	20 h 59 m	Show
The Mets have to be way down after their playoff chances were dealt a big blow with a 2-1 home loss to the Rays on Monday. The Mets had Jacob deGrom going in that game while the Rays went with an opener, a strategy their manager, Kevin Cash, came up with a couple of years ago and that has been widely copied. The Mets were 12-2 in deGrom's previous 14 starts. Now the Mets have to deal with lefty Blake Snell, who won the Cy Young Award in 2018. The Mets are 6-14 versus lefty starters this season. They have scored a combined three runs in three of their last four games. Snell is having a strong September with a 2.87 ERA. He's given up one run during his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Snell is 4-1 on the season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Snell also is 3-0 on the road. Tampa Bay is 18-10 on the road. The Mets are 12-16 at home. The Mets are slated to start Seth Lugo, who is 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Lugo is off a terrible performance against the Phillies where he surrendered six runs on eight hits in 1 1/2 innings this past Thursday.
09-18-20	Padres v. Mariners +1.5		6-1	Loss	-101	16 h 16 m	Show
On the surface, the oddsmaker seems justified making the Padres this big of a road favorite against a bad team in a pitching matchup of righty Chris Paddack versus lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who was a terrible pitcher last year and has a 5.35 ERA this season. But there are factors pointing to the Mariners hanging in if not winning outright. Seattle is home where they are an above .500 team. The Mariners have won seven of the last eight times when going against a righty starter. Paddack left his most recent start because he suffered an ankle injury. Paddack may not be 100 percent. He also is not pitching as well as he did earlier in the season. Paddack has yielded five earned runs in his last 6 2/3 innings. Kikuchi isn't as bad as he was last season when he was introduced to the major leagues. His velocity is higher this season and he's cut way back on giving up homers. He also has 39 strikeouts in 37 innings. Kikuchi defeated the Padres, 8-3, in San Diego on Aug. 27 The Padres are 24-11 against righthanded starting pitching, but just 8-8 when facing lefty starters.
09-18-20	Twins v. Cubs -125		0-1	Win	100	15 h 58 m	Show
The Twins' power is way down from last season and they've struggled on the road going 10-16. The Cubs are 18-12 at Wrigley Field and have the better pitching matchup here with Kyle Hendricks facing lefty Rich Hill. Hendricks is in outstanding form with a 2-0 record and 1.66 ERA during his past three starts. Hill is capable of pitching gems. He's also capable of leaving the game after one pitch. Hill is 40 years old and one of the most fragile pitchers in the league. Hill has a 3.81 ERA this season. The Cubs are 6-3 going against southpaws.
09-17-20	Rangers v. Astros -1.5		1-2	Loss	-129	14 h 48 m	Show
The Rangers snuck past the Astros, 1-0, on Wednesday. I see the Astros bouncing back in a big way from that frustrating defeat. Texas manager Chris Woodward continues to experiment and build for next season. The Rangers had five rookies in their starting lineup during Tuesday's opening game of the series. The Rangers are 0-9 the past nine times when playing Game 3 of a series. Jordan Lyles is slated to start for Texas. He probably should no longer be in any team's starting rotation with a 7.80 ERA. Woodward could use this as a bullpen game so Lyles' stint could be short. Houston starter Framber Valdez began the season hot, but has cooled off during his last two starts. He should get back on track against the Rangers, a team he held to three runs with eight strikeouts in seven innings on Sept. 1. The Astros have won 12 of their last 14 home games against the Rangers, who have lost by 3 or more runs during eight of their last nine losses.
09-17-20	Mets v. Phillies -121		10-6	Loss	-121	14 h 46 m	Show
I want Aaron Nola going for me especially against the cold-hitting Mets at home. The price is low enough to get involved. Nola has a 2.40 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. He's been even better during his last four starts compiling a 1.65 ERA and 0.88 ratio. The Mets have scored just 11 runs in their last four games, an average of 2.7 runs. Converted starter Seth Lugo is slated to start for New York. The Mets are 0-4 in his last four road starts. Philadelphia has won nine of the last 10 times it has been favored at home. The Phillies are 7-1 in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park when going up against a righty starter, which Lugo is.
09-17-20	Diamondbacks v. Angels UNDER 10.5		3-7	Win	100	11 h 53 m	Show
After a pair of high-scoring games where a combined 32 runs were scored, I'm expecting things to settle down in the finale of this three-game series. It's a rare afternoon start at Angel Stadium, which usually is bad for hitters later in the game when they have more trouble picking up the pitch. Listed starting pitchers are lefty Alex Young versus Griffin Canning. Anthony Rendon is the only Angels hitter who has ever faced Young, and he's 0-for-3 against him. Young has gone back and forth from starting and relieving. He pitched in relief this past Friday giving up two runs on two hits in 5 1/3 innings against Seattle. The Angels are 25th in batting against lefthanded pitchers. Canning is a promising young pitcher who has flashed at times, but needs more consistency. Canning has a similar advantage to Young in that the Diamondbacks don't know him. Jon Jay is Arizona's only player who has ever batted against Canning.
09-16-20	Diamondbacks v. Angels -1.5	Top	9-6	Loss	-100	15 h 34 m	Show
An excuse is hardly needed to fade the sinking Diamondbacks. But I have an excellent excuse in this matchup - Dylan Bundy. Even with their victory against the Angels on Tuesday night, the Diamondbacks still have lost 20 of their last 26 games with five of their past six defeats occurring by multiple runs. Bundy has become an ace. All it took was getting out of the AL East and a huge hitter's park in Baltimore to joining the Angels and their pitcher-friendly park. Bundy is 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA that shrinks to 2.29 if you just go by his last three starts. The Angels just faced lefty Madison Bumgarner last night, reaching him for eight earned runs and 13 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Now the Angels draw a second straight southpaw in Caleb Smith, a youngster who has yet to prove he can consistently pitch effectively away from Marlins Park after being dealt to the Diamondbacks by the Marlins at the trade deadline.
09-16-20	Royals -125 v. Tigers		4-0	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
The Royals had won six in a row until losing to the Tigers on Tuesday. The price certainly is reasonable to back the Royals in a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Tarik Skubal. Singer is coming off his best start shutting out the Indians on one hit in eight innings with eight strikeouts this past Thursday. Singer threw a season-high 119 pitches in that game, but is pitching on five full day's rest. Singer draws a Tigers lineup minus injured second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who was leading the team in homers. Skubal has been terrible this season with a 7.27 ERA.
09-16-20	Red Sox v. Marlins OVER 9		4-8	Win	100	12 h 43 m	Show
Each of these teams should be good for at least four runs apiece in a pitching matchup of lefties Mike Kickham versus rookie Trevor Rogers. Boston has scored four or more runs in seven of its past nine games. Rogers is set to make just his fifth start. He was bombed by the Phillies in his last outing giving up eight earned runs in three-plus innings last Friday. He has an 8.36 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP during his last three starts. The Red Sox have the fifth highest batting average and are seventh in slugging percentage versus lefthanded pitching. The Marlins' lineup has become far more respectable with the addition of Starling Marte. The Marlins are above average in batting average against southpaws. Kickham will be making just his second big league start since 2013 after going four innings a week ago. The Marlins have scored 4 or more runs in 11 of their last 15 games.
09-15-20	Mets v. Phillies +116		1-4	Win	116	13 h 14 m	Show
The Phillies are banged-up with multiple injuries. But I'm attracted to them as a home 'dog in a pitching matchup of Rick Porcello versus Jake Arrieta. I see the veteran Arrieta stepping up in the wake of injuries to starting pitchers Zach Wheeler and Spencer Howard. Arrieta has a 3.55 ERA in his last two starts. He holds a lifetime 3.17 ERA in 15 starts versus the Mets. Philadelphia has won 10 of its last 12 home games. It's an insult to Cy Young that Porcello once won that award. He may be the worst Cy Young Award winner of all-time. Porcello is nothing more than an innings-eater and not a very good one at that. He's been a major disappointment for the sucker Mets with a 1-4 record and 6.07 ERA. This is the Phillies' third look at Porcello this season. Porcello has a 4.50 ERA in two starts against Philadelphia. The Mets have lost seven of the last nine meetings in this series. Wrong team favored here.
09-12-20	Angels v. Rockies -125		5-2	Loss	-125	10 h 48 m	Show
The Angels are a fade away from home with a 6-16 road mark. Going back to last season, the Angels have lost 37 of their last 51 road contests. Now the Angels draw Kyle Freeland, an experienced Coors Park pitcher with a 2.80 ERA when pitching at night. The Angels are going with Jamie Barria, who has much to prove after going 4-10 with a 6.42 ERA last year.
09-11-20	Tigers v. White Sox -1.5		3-4	Loss	-135	12 h 34 m	Show
The pitching matchup, spot and huge talent edge all are set up here for the White Sox. I want to get involved with the White Sox and the best way to do that is cut the monster juice down by playing them on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. Detroit is playing for the ninth time in seven days. This is the Tigers' fourth different venue during this span. Their bullpen, not good to begin with, carries a heavy fatigue rating. The White Sox, by contrast, are rested, refreshed and confident. They enjoyed a day off on Thursday while the Tigers had to play a road doubleheader against the Cardinals. Lucas Giolito is one of the elite pitchers in the American League. He's been dominant in his last three starts at Guaranteed Rate Field with a 1.71 ERA. The Tigers are going with rookie Casey Mize, who the White Sox just saw on Aug. 19. Chicago got to Mize for three runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings. Mize is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but he's being force-fed this season. His ERA is 6.75 in four starts.
09-10-20	Red Sox v. Rays OVER 9		4-3	Loss	-114	13 h 29 m	Show
Boston's Mike Kickham is making his first big league start since 2013. He has a 2.00 WHIP and probably will be lucky to last three innings. It's debatable if Kickham is even a major leaguer. He hasn't been one in seven years. The Rays are batting just .195 during their last five games. But they're likely to halt their offensive woes getting to face Kickham and a bad Boston bullpen. The Rays have left an average of nearly seven on base during their past five games. I see them continuing to get baserunners, but this time driving them in. That was the case when the teams met last month. The Rays swept the Red Sox in a four-game series at Fenway Park averaging 10.5 runs and batting .364 with nine homers. Boston should do its part by helping this total go Over. The Red Sox face lefty Josh Fleming, who will be making his fourth big league start. Fleming has been solid with a 3.52 ERA. He's been fortunate, though, to face the Marlins twice. Miami is a below average offensive team. The Red Sox have the league's sixth-highest batting average versus southpaws and also rank in the top nine in slugging percentage and OPS against lefties.
09-09-20	Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8		19-0	Win	100	7 h 38 m	Show
Matthew Boyd has been a little better lately, but the lefty still is having a horrible season with a 6.64 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings. Boyd has been stung by the long ball surrendering 11 homers. The Brewers are way overdue to get their struggling offense going. Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun and Avisail Garcia are far more accomplished hitters than what their statistics show. The Brewers have been more effective against southpaws, though, ranking in the top 10 against them in several of the metric categories such as slugging percentage, OPS and OBP. Milwaukee is going with Corbin Burnes. He's pitched well during his past couple of outings. But I'm not sold. He's given up 19 walks in 38 1/3 innings. The Tigers rank in the top 13 in batting average and runs.
09-08-20	Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks		10-9	Loss	-135	18 h 41 m	Show
The Diamondbacks' white flag is flying high. Arizona is 2-17 in its last 19 games! The Diamondbacks are 0-11 the past 11 times facing a righthanded starter and now draw Walker Buehler. Buehler has given up one earned run in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He has a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this frame. He's one of the best young pitchers in baseball. The Diamondbacks have scored 3 or fewer runs in 14 of their last 18 games. They are playing a lot of youngsters who just aren't very good. Luke Weaver also was a good young pitcher - until he got hurt. Weaver has yet to prove he can return to form. He's 1-6 with a 7.44 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Weaver has yielded eight homers in 32 2/3 innings. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and runs scored.
09-07-20	Diamondbacks -105 v. Giants		2-4	Loss	-105	12 h 13 m	Show
The only thing that can get me on the Diamondbacks these days is a pitching matchup of Zac Gallen versus Kevin Gausman. Gallen is great. Gausman is terrible. So at this price, I'm holding my nose and taking the Diamondbacks. Gallen is looking to extend his major league record of allowing three or fewer runs to begin a career to 24. He has a 1.80 ERA on the season. Gallen has been at his finest, too, during his last four starts with a 1.00 ERA. He is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants. Gausman is having another typical Gausman year with a 4.43 ERA.
09-07-20	Phillies -110 v. Mets		9-8	Win	100	6 h 35 m	Show
Zack Wheeler gets up for the Mets more than any other team. Wheeler was a mainstay in the Mets' rotation the previous two seasons, but was highly disappointed when the Mets let him walk in free agency without ever making an offer. Wheeler landed with the Phillies and has thrived going 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA. He beat the Mets in mid-August, 6-2, allowing two runs on six hits in seven innings. The Mets are going with David Peterson, who has yet to make his mark. Philadelphia has won the past seven times it was favored.
09-06-20	Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5		7-6	Loss	-135	13 h 37 m	Show
The Rockies upset the Dodgers, 5-2, on Saturday. Prior to that game, the Dodgers were 17-1 at home versus Colorado. It has been 23 games since the Dodgers last dropped two straight games. LA has followed its last three defeats by crushing the opposition by at least five runs each time. The price is huge here as it should be with Julio Urias facing Ryan Castellani followed by by Chi Chi Gonzalez as the Rockies are treating this as a bullpen game. So laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line makes plenty of sense. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. They aren't going to lack for offense against these stiff pitchers and Colorado's bullpen. LA starter Julio Urias is another one of the Dodgers' high-caliber young pitchers. He's coming off an excellent outing against the Diamondbacks giving up one run on four hits in six innings with no walks and five strikeouts this past Tuesday.
09-06-20	Diamondbacks v. Giants -129		2-4	Win	100	14 h 16 m	Show
You can see the white flag all the way from Arizona. The Diamondbacks are complete fade material. They are in rebuild mode and have lost 15 of their last 17 games. The price is right to back the much-better hitting Giants and Johnny Cueto, who is 11-3 lifetime with a 3.03 ERA in 17 career starts versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks have been held to three runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. Arizona is pitching Alex Young. He's a converted reliever who could be heading back to the bullpen after this start. He's 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA.
09-06-20	White Sox -1.5 v. Royals		8-2	Win	100	5 h 33 m	Show
The Royals are reshuffling their rotation saying they are going to start Matt Harvey today. I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. Harvey has no business on any big league team's starting rotation. He's yet to pitch more than three innings and has a 14.09 ERA. Dallas Keuchel goes for the White Sox. He has a 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Chicago is a much better team than Kansas City and going for the sweep here. The White Sox are 14-4 in their last 18 road games and 8-1 in their last nine games against the Royals. Kansas City has dropped five in a row. The odds are good the White Sox will win this game by multiple runs since 17 of their last 18 victories have been by two or more runs. This could be a final chance to fade Harvey so I'm going to take it.
09-05-20	Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5		5-2	Loss	-106	16 h 42 m	Show
The Rockies rank in the top nine in runs and batting average. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. They draw a struggling German Marquez. But what really seals this being a strong totals play is Alfonso Marquez being the home plate umpire. There is no stronger Over umpire. The Over has cashed 77 percent of the time during the last 43 games Marquez has been behind the plate. He's called the fewest strikes of any umpire in each of the last three years. Marquez and a bad Rockies bullpen should do their part, too, in getting this total Over. Marquez has a 10.13 ERA in his last three starts. Opponents are hitting .348 against him with a .652 slugging percentage during this time frame. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has pitched great in limited action so far. His 0.51 ERA, though, is unsustainable. His metrics point to severe regression.
09-05-20	White Sox -1.5 v. Royals		5-3	Win	100	14 h 36 m	Show
The White Sox are 12-0 versus lefty starters this season. They have a mismatch in today's game with Lucas Giolito facing southpaw Kris Bubic. Giolito has become one of the better pitchers in the league. He has a 3.14 ERA. Bubic has a 5.46 ERA. The Royals are 0-5 in Bubic's five starts this year. The White Sox destroy lefthanded pitching. They have the highest sluggest percentage (.574) and highest OPS (.954) in the majors versus lefties. Chicago also is batting a second-best .303 against southpaws. Chicago is 13-4 in its last 17 road games and has beaten the Royals in seven of the past eight games. The odds are good the White Sox will win this game by multiple runs since 16 of their last 17 victories have been by two or more runs.
09-04-20	Marlins v. Rays -125		4-5	Win	100	11 h 56 m	Show
This price is within reason to get involved with the Rays. Miami has been a surprising 16-16 this season, but the Rays are an elite team especially at home. The Rays are 14 games above .500 this season. They have won 71 percent of their past 51 home games going back to last year. Tropicana Park is an unusual venue for opposing teams. One reason for this is artificial turf. The Marlins have lost 18 of the last 26 times they've played on astroturf. Miami starter righty Pablo Lopez has been surprisingly good this season with a 2.10 ERA. The Rays just saw him six days ago, winning that game, 4-0. The Rays are 19-7 versus righty starters this season. Tampa Bay is starting southpaw Josh Fleming. He also has been surprisingly good carrying a 1.74 ERA through his first two big league starts. He pitched against the Marlins last Saturday and held them scoreless on three hits in 5 1/3 innings. Miami is 3-8 versus lefty starters on the year. The Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games. This includes a 3-game road sweep of the Marlins. Tampa Bay outscored Miami, 18-7, in that series.
09-03-20	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5		1-5	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
The Diamondbacks gave it a great try Wednesday night against the Dodgers, but fell one run short in losing for the 12th time in 13 games. That was with Arizona pitching its ace, Zack Gallen. Now the Diamondbacks draw Dodgers ace, a rejuvenated and healthy lefty Clayton Kershaw. Demoralized by giving up four veterans at the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks aren't likely to offer much resistance after blowing an extra inning lead last night. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 28-10. Kershaw is back in dominant form going 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 33-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season in 30 innings. The Diamondbacks are averaging two runs per game in their last four games. They are 1-8 on the season versus southpaw starters, which isn't surprising since they are batting .227 against lefties and rank third-from-last in MLB in slugging percentage against lefthanders. LA leads the majors in homers and are second in runs. So Luke Weaver, who has been up and down on the comeback trail, is facing a major challenge. Weaver did not pitch well in his last start against the much-weaker hitting Giants. Weaver surrendered four earned runs on eight hits in three innings.
09-03-20	White Sox -135 v. Royals		11-6	Win	100	15 h 42 m	Show
The White Sox are 22-15. The Royals are 14-23. So these teams are playing out to their projections. The White Sox, with a boatload of young talent, were expected to make a major step while the Royals remain dregs. A big part of Chicago's success is its 11-0 record against lefthanded starters. The Royals are pitching lefty Danny Duffy. The White Sox are batting .303 versus southpaws, second-highest in the league. They have the highest sluggest percentage (.571) and highest OPS (.948) against lefties. Chicago just saw Duffy six days ago. The White Sox got to him for four runs (three earned) on seven hits, including two homers, in 5 2/3 innings. Duffy has a 5.60 career ERA versus the White Sox when pitching at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City draws highly-promising Dylan Cease, who displayed his vast potential finishing August by going 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 26 strikeouts in six starts. Cease may not have to deal with the Royals' most feared slugger as Jorge Soler left yesterday's game with an oblique irritation.
09-02-20	Nationals -114 v. Phillies	Top	0-3	Loss	-114	12 h 7 m	Show
This is a low price to get an elite starter versus a No. 3 type pitcher with Max Scherzer facing Zach Wheeler. Scherzer may be past his prime, but he's still a dominant Tier 1 pitcher. He has a 3.86 ERA after a bad stretch. The buy sign is back on him, though, after his last performance. Scherzer gave up one run on six hits with 11 strikeouts and no walks in six innings against the Red Sox this past Friday. Scherzer said he tweaked his mechanics and that made a difference. Scherzer is 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies. This includes a 5-0 mark with a 2.40 ERA at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. This isn't a huge fade on Wheeler, who has pitched well this season. He's just not in the class of Scherzer and the Phillies have a worse bullpen than the Nationals. Wheeler also has a bad history versus the Nationals with a 5-10 record and 5.01 ERA in 18 starts.
09-01-20	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5		3-6	Win	100	10 h 8 m	Show
Dealing Starling Marte, Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley, the Diamondbacks have hoisted up the white flag for 2020. The Dodgers should be able to take full advantage being 26-10 and having just broken the National League for homers in a month. The Dodgers are even more dangerous with the NL now using the DH. The Diamondbacks are throwing Alex Young, a fill-in replacement for injured Madison Bumgarner. Young has a 4.70 ERA. The Dodgers should overwhelm Young and the Diamondbacks' bullpen. Julio Urias is another one of those young top of the line pitching prospects for the Dodgers. Urias has a lifetime 2.08 ERA versus Arizona in four appearances. The Dodgers have won by multiple runs in seven of their last eight victories.
09-01-20	Rangers v. Astros -1.5		6-5	Loss	-139	9 h 39 m	Show
In Framber Valdez I trust. Valdez has emerged as a dependable starter for the Astros posting a 2.35 ERA. He's coming off a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Angels. Valdez is in excellent form going 3-0 during his last three starts with a 2.61 ERA during this span and 21 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings. The Rangers are 2-12 in their last 14 games. They also have lost in their last nine road games against the Astros. This is almost a give-up game for the Rangers as they have made it a bullpen game. Luis Garcia is supposed to be the first victim up. He has a 5.40 ERA. He's likely to be followed by equally ineffective Jordan Lyles, who has a 9.25 ERA.
09-01-20	Indians -1.5 v. Royals		10-1	Win	100	9 h 35 m	Show
Zach Plesac is a promising young pitcher with much to prove in this start. He hasn't pitched since Aug. 8 because he violated team protocol. Plesac was looking good this season with a 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings. He is 3-0 lifetime versus the Royals with a 2.11 ERA in four career outings. The other half of this handicap is a fade on washed-up Matt Harvey, who hasn't made it past the third inning in either of his two starts this season. He has an 11.12 ERA. I'm surprised he's still in a starting rotation. Cleveland has won 10 of its last 12 away games and is 13-5 during the past 18 meetings against the Royals.
08-30-20	Pirates v. Brewers OVER 8.5		5-1	Loss	-103	9 h 18 m	Show
Playing the Pirates brings out the best in Milwaukee's offense. The Brewers have scored 16 runs in the first two games of this series. Milwaukee should be in line for another big scoring outburst facing Steve Brault, who has a 4.80 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and has more walks than strikeouts on the season. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has a 4.11 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't been the ace the Brewers envisioned this season. Woodruff also could be distracted as he's leaving the team following this game because his wife is giving birth. CB Bucknor is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 21-13 (62 percent) the past 34 times Bucknor has been behind the plate.
08-30-20	Nationals +101 v. Red Sox		5-9	Loss	-100	9 h 40 m	Show
Austin Voth is off to a slow start after showing promise last year. He has a 6.65 ERA. Voth is better than he has shown. Voth, though, still is better than Red Sox starter Zack Godley, who has been Godley awful. He's 0-3 with a 7.29 ERA. The Nationals are familiar with Godley having faced him when he pitched for the Diamondbacks. Godley has a 5.53 career ERA versus the Nationals in 40 2/3 innings. Godley doesn't go deep into games either. That's going to be a real problem. The Red Sox have a terrible bullpen and their best relievers have fatigue issues.
08-30-20	Twins -1.5 v. Tigers		2-3	Loss	-124	8 h 16 m	Show
I want the Twins and Kenta Maeda going for me after the Tigers swept a doubleheader from Minnesota on Saturday. How rare was Detroit sweeping? The Twins had won 68 percent of their last 60 games as a road favorite. The Tigers are 11-51 in their last 62 home games against a righty starter. Maeda has been highly consistent. He's 4-0 with a 2.26 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. He's in great form, too, with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts. The Tigers are going with their prize rookie Casey Mize. He has a monster upside, but right now he's a work-in-progress. Mize has a 7.04 ERA and hasn't reached the fifth inning in either of his first two starts.
08-29-20	Giants v. Diamondbacks -135		5-2	Loss	-135	15 h 59 m	Show
Arizona has been underachieving and Luke Weaver is on the comeback trail. But I see a buy sign on both of them today. The Diamondbacks halted an eight-game losing streak beating the Giants, 7-4, on Friday. That should stop the Diamondbacks from pressing and raise their confidence level. Weaver was on track to become one of the better young pitchers in baseball before an injury derailed him. But he's looked good in his last two starts posting a 2.53 ERA. Journeyman righthander Trevor Cahill goes for San Francisco. Cahill is pitching well above his norm with a 1.64 ERA after three starts. The Diamondbacks hit righties much better than lefties and Cahill is due for major regression. If Cahill was anywhere close to being this good, he wouldn't be on his eighth big league team. The Giants have lost six of the past seven times following a loss. The Diamondbacks usually do the job as home chalk winning 16 of the last 21 times in that role.
08-28-20	Mariners +1.5 v. Angels	Top	2-3	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
The Angels aren't playing well, losing 11 of their last 14 games and Andrew Heaney is in bad form with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. So I'll take a 1 1/2 runs with the Mariners, who have won five of their last six. If given 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Mariners are going with Nick Margevicius, who is showing potential in his last two starts joining the rotation in place of injured Kendall Graveman. Margevicius has a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those outings and is coming off a victory against the Rangers.
08-26-20	Cubs -138 v. Tigers		6-7	Loss	-138	11 h 47 m	Show
Jon Lester was bit by the long ball bug in his last two starts surrendering a combined six homers to the White Sox and Brewers in his last two starts. I see Lester getting his act together facing the woeful Tigers while also being helped by the spacious dimensions of Comerica Park. Lester opened the season giving up just two runs during his first three starts. Lester is a medium-sized favorite because he's facing Michael Fulmer and a Detroit team that has lost 62 of its last 80 home games. The Tigers are letting Fulmer take his lumps as he recovers from Tommy John surgery having missed all of last season. Fulmer has given up 18 hits and 14 runs in 11 1/3 innings. That translates into a 9.53 ERA. He has yet to pitch more than three innings in a game this season.
08-25-20	Royals v. Cardinals -1.5		5-4	Loss	-103	15 h 19 m	Show
Say didn't you used to be Matt Harvey stud pitcher for the Mets? That was three teams and five years ago. Harvey never recovered from serious arm trouble. His time in the big leagues is likely limited so the time to fade him is now because chances are going to soon run out. Harvey made his first start of the year six days ago against the Reds. Predictably it didn't go well. Harvey gave up three runs in three innings allowing four hits in a 5-0 loss. Adam Wainwright is past his prime, but he's started the season well going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA. He's facing a Royals club that is not playing well and ranks 29th in runs scored. The Cardinals have started to get their offense in gear averaging 4.5 runs in their last six games. St. Louis has won three in a row - all by 3 or more runs. The Royals have been a bad road team losing 102 of their past 150 away games.
08-24-20	Rockies v. Diamondbacks -156		3-2	Loss	-156	15 h 21 m	Show
The Rockies have fallen back to earth and are a fade on the road especially at Arizona. Colorado has lost 37 of its last 51 away games. The Rockies are 1-5 in their past six games at Chase Field. Arizona is going with Merrill Kelly, who has a 2.59 ERA. He's pitched well in four of his five starts. Colorado is pitching righthander Ryan Castellani, who just got battered by the Astros in his last start giving up five earned runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 versus southpaw starters, but 13-9 when facing righthanders. Arizona also is 15-3 the past 18 times as a home favorite.
08-24-20	Angels v. Astros -148		4-11	Win	100	15 h 53 m	Show
In a battle of lefty starters, I want emerging star Framber Valdez going for me at home against the Angels' Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval was bad last season. He's bad again this season with a 5.40 ERA. Sandoval has yielded at least one homer during each of his four starts this season. The Astros have several big hitters out, but got back Michael Brantley on Sunday. The Astros are 23-5 in their last 28 home games versus a lefty starter. Valdez has been one of the bright spots for Houston allowing three earned runs in 20 2/3 innings during his last three starts. It's rarely wrong to fade the Angels on the road where they are 16-36 in their past 52 away matchups.
08-23-20	Diamondbacks -120 v. Giants		1-6	Loss	-120	8 h 26 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are much better against righties than southpaws going 13-8 versus righties as opposed to 0-7 against lefties. Righty Trevor Cahill will be making his third start replacing injured Jeff Samardzija. He's failed to go more than four innings in either of his starts. The Giants need their starters to go deep into games because their bullpen is so vulnerable. Cahill is 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in seven career appearances against the Diamondbacks. Luke Weaver was emerging into a star before he was injured. The buy sign is back on Weaver as he rounds into shape. He's coming off his best start giving up one run on three hits in five innings in a 10-1 victory against the A's this past Tuesday. Weaver is 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA in four career starts against the Giants.
08-23-20	Rangers v. Mariners +122		1-4	Win	122	8 h 20 m	Show
How can the Rangers, losers of 7 in a row, be a road favorite pitching Mike Minor? How indeed? The Rangers have surrendered at least 6 runs in each of their losses during their losing streak. So I'll be on the home 'dog Mariners. Seattle will be starting Justin Dunn. I'm not betting the Mariners because of Dunn, although he beat the Rangers on Aug. 10 at Texas giving up just two runs in six innings. No, this handicap is a fade on the weak-hitting Rangers and the poor form of Minor. Minor hasn't been good since the first half of last season. He is 0-4 with a 6.94 ERA in five starts this season. The Rangers' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating following 7-4 and 10-1 losses to the Mariners. Minor has a 5.05 ERA against the Mariners during the last three years.
08-23-20	Red Sox v. Orioles +115		4-5	Win	115	5 h 19 m	Show
In a matchup of bad starting pitchers, I'll take the plus price. That puts me on the home Orioles with a pitching matchup of Zack Godley versus Wade LeBlanc. I'm not a fan of journeyman LeBlanc. So this is a fade on the Red Sox. Godley has a 6.87 ERA. He's given up five homers in 18 innings. That's a red flag when pitching at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. The Red Sox's bullpen is bad and depleted. It cost them the game yesterday. The Orioles average more runs per game than Boston and have hit more homers. Baltimore has scored 5 or more runs in 15 of its last 19 games.
08-22-20	Red Sox v. Orioles +111		4-5	Win	111	13 h 46 m	Show
I'm not buying into the Red Sox being road chalk against the Orioles in a pitching matchup of lefty Martin Perez versus Alex Cobb. Cobb has been the better pitcher this season with a 3.76 ERA. Perez has a 4.07 ERA and walks too many batters. The Red Sox bullpen is bad plus depleted. The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in 14 of their last 18 games. They have a winning record this year against southpaws. Baltimore averages 4.9 runs per game, which ranks 11th. Boston ranks 18th averaging 4.6 runs. The Orioles also have hit more homers than Boston.
08-22-20	Angels v. A's -135		4-3	Loss	-135	10 h 15 m	Show
The Angels are a terrible road club and they can't win in Oakland having lost seven of the past eight times there. The Angels are 16-36 in their past 52 road games. Consequently, the A's have won 39 of their last 52 home games. The pitching matchup is Griffin Canning versus Chris Bassitt. Canning has potential, but he's not in good form giving up seven runs during his last 8 2/3 innings. He has a 4.70 ERA on the season and a lifetime 4.73 ERA against the A's in 26 2/3 innings. Bassitt is 2-0 this season with a 2.93 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He doesn't go deep into games, but he's solid and limits homers and walks. That should be enough for the superior A's to defeat the cold Angles, who have dropped eight of their last nine.
08-21-20	Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 9	Top	2-6	Loss	-130	13 h 34 m	Show
The Giants' offense has been better than advertised. San Francisco ranks 11th in the majors in runs scored. The Giants are averaging 6.7 runs in their last seven games. Now the Giants get to face erratic Robbie Ray, who has been dreadful this season with an 8.59 ERA. Ray had a 5.40 ERA versus the Giants in three starts last season. The Giants are pitching youngster righty Logan Webb. He has a respectable 3.54 ERA, but only once has he reached five innings in five starts. So the horrific Giants bullpen figures to see plenty of work. The Diamondbacks hit righties far better than lefties. They have the fourth-highest batting average in the NL going against righthanders. Arizona is averaging 7.6 runs in its last eight games when facing a righty starter. Normally a pitcher's park, Oracle Park has been a hitter's paradise this season. The Over is 9-0-1 during the last 10 games in San Francisco.
08-21-20	Angels v. A's +104		3-5	Win	104	12 h 27 m	Show
All the A's do is win when Mike Fiers is on the mound. They are 22-6 in his last 28 starts. The righthander is off his best start of the year, giving up two runs in six innings against the Giants. The A's have been extremely tough, too, at home the past few seasons. This year is following that pattern. Oakland is 11-3 at RingCentral Coliseum. Andrew Heaney is in bad form allowing nine runs in his last two starts spanning 9 1/3 innings. He doesn't go deep into games either averaging fewer than five innings per start. The Angels are 1-4 in his past five starts. Like most clubs, the Angels have problems in Oakland dropping six of their last seven there. The Angels also are 6-20 in their last 26 road matchups versus righty starters.
08-20-20	Brewers v. Twins -112		1-7	Win	100	15 h 4 m	Show
Nothing against righthanded Brandon Woodruff, a pitcher I like. But I'll lay a short home price with the much more powerful Twins and All-Star pitcher Jose Berrios. Berrios hasn't pitched like an All-Star this season. Note, though, this is just the righthander's third home start. The Twins won both of his previous starts at Target Field. Berrios has always pitched much better in Minnesota. Here's a comparison of his home/road ERA: At home - 2.41 ERA in 2017, 3.03 ERA in 2018 and 3.51 ERA in 2019. On the road - 5.17 ERA in 2017, 4.85 ERA in 2018 and 3.84 ERA in 2019. Berrios takes on a Milwaukee offense that so far has been way down. The Brewers rank 27th in batting average, 24th in runs and 24th in homers. The Twins led the majors in homers last year setting a record. They are seventh in homers this season. The Twins have won their last seven home games when facing a righty starter. Milwaukee is 6-13 the last 19 times going against a righty starter.
08-19-20	Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's		1-4	Loss	-130	12 h 36 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are an above .500 team, have won six in a row and are going with their best pitcher this season, Merrill Kelly. Kelly has allowed just one run in his last 12 2/3 innings. He has a 1.71 ERA and 0.91 ERA on the season. The A's are going with Jesus Luzardo, a highly-promising rookie who has been up and down. He has a 4.79 ERA. He's coming off a game where he allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Giants.
08-18-20	Nationals +111 v. Braves		8-5	Win	111	11 h 45 m	Show
The starting pitching choice is Austin Voth, or Josh Tomlin followed for sure by a bevy of Atlanta relief pitchers. In other words, this is an Atlanta bullpen game. I'll take Voth, a promising pitcher with a good history against the Braves. Voth holds a 2.70 lifetime ERA versus Atlanta in 16 2/3 innings. Tomlin has a 4.61 career ERA against the Nationals in eight appearances. This will be his first start since last season. Tomlin probably isn't going to pitch more than three or four innings putting the Braves' middle relievers into action. The Nationals' offense has picked up with a healthy Juan Soto. The blossoming superstar is batting .433 with six homers in his last eight games. Washington is averaging 7.5 runs in its last four games.
08-17-20	Tigers v. White Sox OVER 9.5		2-7	Loss	-105	14 h 41 m	Show
No more hearing about Matthew Boyd being underrated because he isn't. He shouldn't even be in a starting rotation anymore with how poorly he's pitched this season. Boyd is 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA. He hasn't reached the sixth inning during any of his four starts. The White Sox just faced Boyd this past Wednesday. They tagged him for seven earned runs on seven hits - including two homers - and three walks in 4 2/3 innings. If you discount a 5-1 loss to the Cardinals, the White Sox are averaging 6.2 runs in their last four games. Their bats are heating up and their ballpark, Guaranteed Rate Field, is a real hitter's park this time of season when the weather is hot. The Tigers hit lefties much better than righthanders and draw past-his-prime southpaw Gio Gonzalez, who has a 6.61 ERA. Detroit just saw Gonzalez six days ago, although Gonzalez limited the Tigers to two runs in 4 2/3 innings. On the season, though, Gonzalez has surrendered 34 baserunners in 16 1/3 innings. The Tigers are averaging 6.7 runs in their last eight games, not including a 3-1 loss to the Indians.
08-16-20	Rangers v. Rockies -142		6-10	Win	100	8 h 1 m	Show
I don't see the Rangers sweeping the Rockies at Coors Field. That could happen, though, if Colorado starter Jon Gray doesn't pitch better. If there's one area Gray does well, though, is beat American League teams at home. He is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in six career interleague starts at Coors. American League batters are hitting only .159 against him at Coors. Youngster Kolby Allard goes for the Rangers. He's never pitched at Coors Field. The Rockies have been held in check for two games now scoring six runs against the Rangers. Their bats have yet to be held in check for three straight games all season. Colorado ranks first in batting average and has scored the third most runs in the majors.
08-16-20	Mariners v. Astros -1.5		2-3	Loss	-122	7 h 59 m	Show
The Mariners are back to being who we thought they would be. They are 3-12 in their last 15 games. Seattle has managed only nine runs in its last five games and just three runs during its last three games. Lance McCullers Jr. should be set up for success against the Mariners. McCullers looked great in his comeback from Tommy John surgery during his last start. That came against the Giants this past Tuesday giving up just one hit in seven scoreless innings. McCullers also is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 lifetime starts versus the Mariners. The Astros draw Seattle rookie Justus Sheffield. He has a high ceiling, but is being force-fed this season and taking his lumps. His ERA sits at 5.27.
08-15-20	Rangers v. Rockies -1.5	Top	6-4	Loss	-100	12 h 1 m	Show
Lance Lynn isn't pitching this game for Texas. That's a buy sign on Colorado especially with German Marquez taking the mound. Marquez tamed the Rangers when he faced them opening day limiting Texas to one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings. But Lynn beat the Rockies that day, 1-0. Lynn also defeated the Rockies, 3-2 on Friday. Marquez has been solid all season not giving up more than two earned runs during any of his four starts. He has a 2.08 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The same can't be said for Kyle Gibson, who is scheduled to make the start here for Texas. Gibson is 4-11 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 20 career interleague starts. This horrible mark doesn't include any games at Coors Fields either. This is the first time Gibson will pitch at the best hitting park in the majors. Gibson surrendered four runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Mariners during his last start five days ago. The Mariners rank 26th in scoring averaging fewer than four runs per game. The Rockies lead the majors in runs scored at 5.5. They also are No. 1 in batting average. So Gibson is stepping way up in class. The Rangers by the way, rank 28th in runs at 3.6. The Rockies are 9-4 during their last 13 home games while the Rangers are 3-9 in their past 12 road contests.
08-13-20	Nationals +120 v. Mets		2-8	Loss	-100	11 h 53 m	Show
The Mets are a below average team both offensively and pitching-wise. The Nationals have begun the season slow, but now their offense is healthy. I expect them to make a move. Having Juan Soto back in the lineup makes a difference. Washington is averaging 8 runs during its last three games. I like Nationals starter Austin Voth. I think he's below-the-radar. He had a 3.30 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last season. He has a 1.80 ERA this season while entering his prime. David Peterson hopes to show he can be a reliable starter for the Mets. Peterson is getting a chance because Marcus Stroman, Michael Wacha and Noah Syndergaard are all out. My preference is Voth. It's a bonus to get him at a plus price in this matchup.
08-12-20	A's -104 v. Angels		8-4	Win	100	12 h 13 m	Show
I don't see the Angels sweeping the A's after winning the first two games of this series. Oakland is the far superior team so I'm attracted to the A's at this short price. A's starter Chris Bassitt is underrated. The righthander has pitched very well with a 1.08 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Oakland is 6-0 in Bassitt's last six starts. The Angels are 4-8 versus righties. They also have a losing record in day games. This isn't a fade on Angels starter Griffin Canning. He's coming off a tough start in a loss to the Rangers this past Friday. But he's a promising pitcher. I just like Bassitt, the situation where the A's are trying not to get swept and Oakland being the better team.
08-11-20	Padres v. Dodgers -1.5		6-2	Loss	-100	16 h 17 m	Show
The Padres nipped the Dodgers, 2-1, on Monday night. The Dodgers have followed up their last four defeats by winning their next game by multiple runs. San Diego is improved this season. But they are at least two tiers beneath the Dodgers' "A" level. The Padres are 4-13 the last 17 times they've been a road 'dog. Dodgers starter Ross Stripling is solid. He would be a No. 2 type starter on some clubs. I expect him to come in with a solid effort. Garrett Richards continues on his comeback trail. He's 0-1 with a 4.60 ERA. The Dodgers just saw him this past Wednesday and got to him for four runs on five hits in five innings.
08-11-20	A's +138 v. Angels	Top	0-6	Loss	-100	16 h 21 m	Show
I can't help but be attracted to the better team getting a solid plus price. That's the case here. The A's are much superior to the Angels. They have been solid on the road, too, winning 12 of their last 16 away games. The Angels are favored being at home and because of how well Dylan Bundy has pitched this season. Bundy always flashed, but he never was this consistent when he was with the Orioles. The Angels are a much better fit for Bundy. I've always liked his potential. Perhaps, however, there is some regression coming. The basis of my handicap is a play on the A's and Mike Fiers at this 'dog price. All the A's do when the righthander pitches is win. They are 21-5 during Fiers' last 26 starts for 81 percent! This includes a 3-0 mark this season. The Angels have lost 39 of the last 52 times when they faced a righty starter.
08-11-20	Nationals -144 v. Mets		2-1	Win	100	14 h 45 m	Show
This is one of those risk vs. reward matchups. If healthy, Max Scherzer versus Rick Porcello is a monster mismatch, far higher than what the lay price is now. But is Scherzer healthy? He only pitched one inning during his last start six days ago because he tweaked his hamstring. Indications are he is fine. He had a bullpen session on Sunday and everything went well. I don't think the Nationals would risk Scherzer if they weren't totally convinced he was 100 percent. The other hesitation I had was about Washington's hitting. But the Nationals broke out of their hitting slump in a big way on Monday scoring 16 runs against the Mets. Their lineup is healthy again. Juan Soto makes a huge difference. Porcello is nothing but a glorified innings-eater. His ERA on the season is 6.92.
08-10-20	Diamondbacks v. Rockies -130	Top	12-8	Loss	-130	18 h 48 m	Show
Look at the National League standings and you'll find a surprise leader: the Colorado Rockies. They have the best mark in the NL at 11-4. The Rockies may be playing above their heads, but I like them to win here at home against the 6-10 Diamondbacks. Colorado is pitching its ace, Jon Gray. Arizona is going with lefty Robbie Ray. The Rockies are 7-0 the past seven times facing a southpaw starter. Ray is a great strikeout artist, but a mediocre pitcher. He's never been able to harnas his control and it's evident again this season. He has a 9.45 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. He doesn't go deep into games either because he throws so many pitches. Ray has a 5.20 career ERA in 17 starts against the Rockies. Current Rockies are batting a combined .328 against him in 214 plate appearances. Gray's .694 home winning percentage is second-best in franchise history. Arizona has lost 10 of the last 12 times it has been a road 'dog. Colorado has defeated the Diamondbacks six of the past eight times at Coors Field.
08-10-20	Rays -125 v. Red Sox		8-7	Win	100	5 h 33 m	Show
There's a class difference between these two teams. Given that and the starting pitching matchup, I'm going to back Tampa Bay at this short lay price. The Rays' Ryan Yarbrough is a dependable starter. The Red Sox are likely to use this matchup as a bullpen game. That's fine if you have a good bullpen. The Red Sox don't. Tampa Bay is 8-2 the past 10 times facing Boston. The Rays have won during each of their last four games in Boston.
08-09-20	Twins v. Royals OVER 9	Top	2-4	Loss	-120	9 h 28 m	Show
It's enticing to see a total of less than double-digits when the Twins are involved against a rookie pitcher. The powerful Twins face Brady Singer, who is stepping up in class and has been prone to the long ball giving up four homers in his last 10 innings. The weather conditions are favorable for plenty of runs to be scored. Temperatures will be in the 90's with the wind blowing out to left at 13-15 mph. So why did the house open with such a low total? There is respect for Twins starter Jose Berrios. However, Berrios has been far less effective when pitching on the road and has a 4.29 ERA in 13 career starts versus Kansas City. The Royals also are swinging hot bats averaging 8.3 runs in their last three games.
08-09-20	Blue Jays +145 v. Red Sox		3-5	Loss	-100	9 h 36 m	Show
This is not the season to be backing the pitching-less Red Sox. Boston has lost 11 of the last 16 times it has been a home favorite. At this price, I'm going to make a value play and take the Blue Jays, who have a better record than the Red Sox. Boston has a terrible bullpen and its starting pitching rotation has been decimated by injuries, trades and defections. Nathan Eovaldi, who gets the start here, could be the Red Sox's best starter. Eovaldi throws hard, but always has been inconsistent. He had a 7.71 ERA in two starts against Toronto last season. I believe Toronto's Matt Shoemaker can pitch well now that he has gotten the rust off. This will be his third start. He is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four lifetime appearances versus the Red Sox, which includes three starts.
08-08-20	Orioles v. Nationals -1.5	Top	5-3	Loss	-100	11 h 33 m	Show
The world champion Nationals were embarrassed, 11-0, by the lowly Orioles on Friday in the first game of this rivalry interleague series. Look for the Nationals to get their revenge today. Not only were the Nationals humiliated at home, but there is a strong sense of urgency. That loss dropped the Nationals to 4-6. The regular season is just 60 games. Baltimore is 32-82 in its next game following a victory. The Nationals are finally at full strength and have the superior starting pitcher going in a matchup of Thomas Eshelman versus Austin Voth. Eshelman is a fill-in for John Means. So this could turn into a bullpen game for the Orioles. Voth had tremendous success in his previous start against the Orioles. That came last July when he beat them, 8-1, giving up one run on four hits and one walk in six innings.
08-07-20	Giants v. Dodgers -1.5		2-7	Win	100	14 h 56 m	Show
The Dodgers are one of the best teams in the majors. The Giants are one of the worst. LA has nine victories, eight of them by more than one run. San Francisco has eight losses, seven of them by more than one run. So I feel confident in laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to reduce the heavy juice. Dodgers starter Julio Urias has been living up to his considerable promise so far this season. He has a 1.16 lifetime ERA versus the Giants in seven career starts. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is nothing more than an innings-eater. He's been bad again this season with a 9.31 ERA.
08-06-20	Angels v. Mariners +158		6-1	Loss	-100	9 h 4 m	Show
Had a big underdog winner with the Mariners on Wednesday. And am coming back on them today as a big underdog again in a pitching matchup of Dylan Bundy versus Taijuan Walker. I just don't see the Angels being that much better than Seattle especially on the road. The Angels are 9-25 in their last 34 away games. So this is another value play. I think Bundy is better with the Angels than he was with the Orioles. The Mariners, though, just saw him last Sunday. Bundy gave up three runs on four hits in six innings in that game, which the Mariners won, 8-5. Walker always has shown promise, but his career has been derailed by injuries. Walker is healthy now and coming off an impressive 5-3 victory against the A's six days ago where he threw seven scoreless innings giving up only one hit with eight strikeouts and two walks. The Angels are at less than full strength with underrated shortstop Andrelton Simmons out with an ankle injury.
08-05-20	Angels v. Mariners +145		6-7	Win	145	17 h 8 m	Show
I don't get the oddsmaker's love of the Angels when meeting the Mariners. I get that Seattle is bad and playing for the future. But the Angels aren't good either especially on the road where they have lost 24 of their past 33. In this matchup, the Mariners are not only home but have the superior starting pitcher. Marco Gonzales is their No. 1 starter. He's 6-1 in 13 career starts versus the Angels. He faced them six days ago in Anaheim limiting them to three hits and two unearned runs in 6 1/3 innings. Seattle won that game, 8-5. Julio Teheran is set to make his Angels debut. He's been out after testing positive for COVID-19. He is making the conversion to being an American League pitcher having spent his nine-year big league career with the Braves. He's likely to be on a pitch count.
08-05-20	Reds v. Indians -115		0-2	Win	100	15 h 39 m	Show
This is a case of slow-starting Mike Clevinger pitching at home against Tejay Antone, who is making his big league debut. Clevinger is better than he has shown. I'll back him against the unknown Antone and a Reds squad that has been disappointing so far this season. Antone isn't a premier prospect. He's ranked as the Reds' 24th best prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. The Indians have been a reliable home favorite winning 10 of the last 12 times in that role.
08-05-20	Red Sox v. Rays -145	Top	5-0	Loss	-145	14 h 12 m	Show
The Rays are another reliable home favorite. They are 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times as home chalk. Tropicana Field is a very tough road venue for opponents because of its Field Turf and odd configurations. The Red Sox have lost in five of their last six visits. Boston also is 1-7 the past eight times meeting the Rays. Boston is down this season due to horrible pitching. The Red Sox are going with Martin Perez, who has an 8.39 ERA at Tropicana Field in five appearances, including four starts. He doesn't figure to be aided by one of the worst bullpens in the league. The Rays are going with Ryan Yarbrough, who is pitching extremely well with a 1.54 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Tampa Bay owns the far superior bullpen, too.
08-04-20	Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5	Top	3-5	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
The Mets are likely down four starters against Patrick Corbin, who has been one of the best lefthanders in the National League during the past two seasons. Dangerous righthanded DH Yoenis Cespedes left the team and Robinson Cano, Amed Rosario and Jeff McNeil all were injured in the Mets' victory against the Braves Monday. Cano and McNeil are the Mets' two leading hitters this season. The Under is 16-6-2 (73%) the past 24 times the Mets have gone against a southpaw starter. The Nationals figure to be swinging rusty bats as they've been idle the past four days. Washington's offense has been slow during the early part of the season ranking 26th in the league in runs scored. Mets starter Steven Matz's velocity is up this year. He should be able to handle a rusty and slow-out-of-the-gates disjointed Nationals lineup that remains without their most feared hitter, Juan Soto.

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