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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-15-17	Dodgers v. Giants +141		4-8	Win	141	8 h 55 m	Show
I see excellent value with the home 'dog Giants, who have beaten the Dodgers 18 of the last 24 times at AT&T Park. San Francisco is starting to show some life winning four of its last five. This is a big series for the Giants. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy hasn't pitched since April 29 because of a shoulder injury. He figures to be rusty even if he's 100 percent. McCarthy has a 7.36 ERA in five appearances versus the Giants, including four starts. The Giants are mid-sized 'dogs here because they are starting Matt Cain, who has a 4.54 ERA. Cain, however, is 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA at home where he's aided by the spacious dimensions of AT&T Park.
05-15-17	A's v. Mariners -113	Top	5-6	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
The record shows both teams have 21 losses. But the Mariners are clearly the better team in my view, are back at Safeco Field where they are 10-5 and stand a good chance of getting back star second baseman Robinson Cano for this game. Seattle ranks 10th in runs scored. Oakland is 25th. The A's have dropped 11 of their last 13 road games. The pitching matchup is lefty Sean Manaea versus Yovani Gallardo. Manaea will be making his first start since coming off the DL after straining his left shoulder. He has a 5.18 ERA and a 3.91 career ERA versus Seattle in four starts. The Mariners have a winning record against lefty starters. Oakland is 3-10 in Manaea's past 13 road starts. Gallardo is Seattle's lone healthy starter from its projected rotation. Gallardo is past his prime, but he still has enough on his fastball and is crafty enough to beat the weak-hitting A's. He defeated the A's last month giving up one run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. The Mariners' bullpen could get a boost with the possible return of Steve Cishek today.
05-14-17	A's v. Rangers UNDER 9.5		4-6	Loss	-105	9 h 18 m	Show
Later in the season is the time to go Over in Rangers' games when Arlington becomes a strong hitter's park as the Texas humidity really kicks in. Now, though, Arlington is an overrated hitter's park with 13 of Texas' last 16 home games going under the total. There's a slight wind blowing in for today's game, which is a rare early start for a Texas home game. That means batters could be affected by the sun being in their eyes. The slated home plate umpire, D.J. Reyburn, has an under bias. The under has cashed 57 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the past three seasons spanning 54 games. Of course the biggest factor is the starting pitching matchup. I feel confident Kendall Graveman and A.J. Griffin will hold up their ends. Graveman is making his fourth start since coming off the DL. He was pitching well before going on the DL and has been slightly rusty since coming off. I see him pitching better here. He's given up fewer than three runs in three of his last four starts. Oddsmaker usually overprice the total on his starts. The under is 12-4 in Graveman's past 16 starts. Griffin is pitching his best ball - because he's finally healthy. He's 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA and will be highly motivated facing the team he started his career. Oakland ranks 25th in runs and batting so his task is far from daunting.
05-13-17	Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8.5	Top	3-1	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
Sometimes you have to take a leap of faith and play a zig/zag in baseball. That's the case for me here going under with a pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus Edinson Volquez. Before getting into the starting pitchers, I'll point out Marlins Park is a pitcher's park and these are two below average offenses. The Marlins have injuries with their two best hitting infielders out. MIami's defense should be better than on Friday with former Golden Glover Dee Gordon moving back to his natural second base from shortstop. Now to the pitchers. Both are considered to be their respective team's No. 1 starters. That's certainly true in the case of the Braves with Teheran, who was very good last season. Teheran, however, has an 8.02 ERA during his last four starts. He's far, far better than that and overdue for a strong start. I believe it comes here. Volquez has a fat 4.71 ERA on the season and missed his last start due to blister. His walks are way up this season. Volquez is far from dominant, but he's a heady veteran who knows how to pitch. He has a good history against the Braves with a 4-3 lifetime mark and 2.89 ERA in eight starts. He had a 1.29 ERA versus Atlanta last season. Miami's top reliever, A.J. Ramos, is rested.
05-12-17	Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5		0-4	Loss	-125	11 h 20 m	Show
Seattle is an underrated offensive team. Only three teams have scored more runs than the Mariners. Seattle is averaging 7.7 runs in its last seven games if you discount a one-run performance they had against tough Yu Darvish. The Over has cashed in eight of Seattle's last 10 games. Toronto always has been a strong offensive club and now its bats are heating up as the Blue Jays have scored 15 runs during the past two games. The pitching matchup favors another high-scoring game as both starters are only in the rotation due to injuries. Seattle starter Christian Bergman is filling in for Hisashi Iwakuma, one of four Mariners starting pitchers on the DL. Bergman has mainly been a reliever. His career ERA is 5.71 in 56 games. Toronto starter Joe Biagini will be making only his second big league start. He's in the Blue Jay's rotation only because of injuries to Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ and Matt Latos being demoted. Biagini had made 74 career relief appearances before his first start. He'll be on a pitch count. Another plus for the over is Ted Barrett is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed in five of his six home plate appearances this season and 18 of 31 home plate appearances last year for a combined Over percentage of 62 percent the past two seasons.
05-11-17	Astros +113 v. Yankees	Top	3-2	Win	113	12 h 30 m	Show
The Yankees have been the big early season success story, but the Astros have won eight of their last 10 and have the better pitcher going. Dallas Keuchel is looking like his Cy Young Award self of two seasons ago going 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA. He is 4-2 lifetime versus the Yankees with a 1.41 ERA in six starts. Houston is 21-5 the past 26 times Keuchel has pitched on five day's rest, too. Houston is 4-0 in his last four road starts. Yankees starter Michael Pineda has looked good, too, during his last five starts. This isn't so much a fade on him but a chance to take Keuchel as an underdog. The spot isn't that great either for the Yankees returning from a five-game road trip.
05-11-17	Red Sox -133 v. Brewers		4-1	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Red Sox by winning this game. Not with this pitching matchup and with Ryan Braun sitting out. Boston is the superior team and is 10-4 following a loss. Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching well holding his last five opponents to a combined six earned runs. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 18 innings. The Brewers have never faced him. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson has an ERA close to 5.00. He hasn't gotten past the sixth inning during his last four starts. The Brewers are 7-20 in Nelson's last 27 outings.
05-10-17	Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5	Top	3-4	Win	100	11 h 50 m	Show
Only two teams average fewer runs per game than San Diego. The Padres are averaging just 2.3 runs during their last six games. The Padres are facing one of the best pitchers in the American League, Yu Darvish. Darvish is especially tough in interleague games where NL teams aren't used to seeing him. He has a 7-2 record with a 2.09 ERA in 12 career interleague starts. San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is one of the more underrated pitchers. He has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. No pitcher has a higher groundball rate than Perdomo. Right-handed batters are hitting only .180 against him. The under has cashed seven of the last 10 times Perdomo has started. Texas did score 11 runs on Tuesday. However, the Rangers averaged just 2.2 runs in their previous four games. Closers for both teams are rested. The weather forecast is overcast with wind blowing in at 15 mph. James Hoye is slated to be the home plate umpire. The under has cashed 58 percent of the time when Hoye has been the home plate umpire since 2013. Note, too, the under has cashed 10 of the past 12 times Texas has played at home.
05-09-17	Mariners v. Phillies OVER 8		10-9	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
Seattle has a top-10 offense. The Mariners are averaging 7.7 runs in their last four games if you discount a one-run performance when they faced Yu Darvish. Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff has tailed off after a strong April. He's given up a combined nine runs on 14 hits in his last two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. Philadelphia has an above average offense and can do damage against Ariel Miranda, a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. Miranda has been tagged for six homers in 33 innings this season and is pitching at Citizens Band Park, a far better offensive park than Safeco Field. Miranda has a 4.72 road ERA compared to 2.75 at Safeco Field.
05-09-17	Rangers -137 v. Padres		11-0	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
Jered Weaver is washed up. He can't even pitch well at Petco Park. The Padres have a losing home record. A.J. Griffin is pitching well going 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. He's a native of San Diego so he'll be extra pumped here. The Padres have never seen him. The Rangers also are the better offensive team and have a rested closer in underrated Matt Bush.
05-08-17	Indians v. Blue Jays -113	Top	2-4	Win	100	13 h 23 m	Show
There are certain pitchers you look forward to fading especially when the price is right. Trevor Bauer is one of those pitchers. And the price is low enough to back the home Blue Jays with the superior starter in Marcus Stroman. It's going to be difficult for the Indians to keep Bauer in their rotation with the way he's pitching. Only once during his first five starts has Bauer turned in a quality performance. Bauer has a 9.15 ERA in four night starts this season and has a 6.27 lifetime ERA in four career appearances versuse the Blue Jays. The Indians' two best relief pitchers carry high fatigue ratings, too, after each pitching during the last two days. Closer Cody Allen threw a combined 40 pitches during the weekend while Andrew Miller made 26 pitches. Stroman should be fine after leaving his last start after only three innings due to armpit tightness. He had allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts during April. It's an added plus for the Blue Jays if they get back their starting left side of their infield today as both third baseman Josh Donaldson and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki could return from the DL.
05-07-17	Yankees v. Cubs -131		5-4	Loss	-131	14 h 7 m	Show
I don't see the Yankees sweeping the Cubs. The defending world champions were embarrassed by the Yankees Saturday. They are coming with their best, big-game pitcher, Jon Lester, who has a 1.50 home ERA. Chicago is 23-6 in Lester's past 29 starts at Wrigley Field. Yankees starter Luis Severino fell back to Earth in his last start giving up five runs in 5 2/3, including two homers, against the Blue Jays. The Yankees are 4-13 in Severino's last 17 starts, 2-6 during his past eight road outings.
05-07-17	Giants -109 v. Reds		0-4	Loss	-109	10 h 57 m	Show
The Giants aren't playing well and are banged-up in the outfield. But this low price puts me on San Francisco in a pitching matchup of Johnny Cueto versus Scott Feldman. Cueto remains an elite hurler and is pumped to go against his former team. San Francisco has won 16 of Cueto's last 22 road stars and 28 of his last 39 overall starts. The Giants are 5-1 in Cueto's starts this season. The Reds, on the other hand, are 1-5 in Feldman's starts this season. That makes sense considering Feldman's ERA is close to 5.00 Feldman is 1-4 lifetime against the Giants with a 3.86 ERA. I also trust the Giants' late relief more than Cincinnati's.
05-06-17	Astros v. Angels +115		1-2	Win	115	12 h 56 m	Show
The buy sign for JC Ramirez is on especially as a home 'dog. Ramirez, replacing injured Garrett Richards in the Angels' rotation, has allowed just two runs in his last two starts spanning 12 1/3 innings. Ramirez has 16 strikeouts in these last two starts. He's a bad matchup for the free-swinging Astros. Houston is going with Lance McCullers, who has a 9.64 road ERA. The Astros are 4-13 in McCuller's last 17 road starts. McCullers has to deal with Mike Trout, who is riding a career-high 17-game hitting streak.
05-05-17	Yankees v. Cubs -115		3-2	Loss	-115	8 h 43 m	Show
Both teams are playing well, but the defending world champion Cubs are much superior to the Yankees. In a pitching matchup of Michael Pineda versus Kyle Hendricks and Chicago playing at Wrigley Field, this is a cheap price to lay with the Cubs. Chicago has won 40 of its past 57 home games. The Cubs also are 20-8 in Hendricks' last 28 starts. Hendricks, the NL's ERA leader last season, began the year slow but has looked much better. Hendricks has allowed just two runs during his past two starts spanning 12 innings facing the Pirates and Red Sox. The Yankees have never faced Hendricks. The Yankees rely on the long ball. They've gotten 13 homers this season from Aaron Judge, including six in his last six games. But the wind is going to be blowing in at around 20 mph limiting New York's power. I like the Cubs' ability to manufacture runs more than the Yankees especially with Pineda pitching in a totally unfamilar park.
05-04-17	A's +106 v. Twins		8-5	Win	106	6 h 20 m	Show
I won't pass up a chance to take a 'dog price against Kyle Gibson. who I regard as one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. A's starter Jharel Cotton has been up-and-down, but has intriguing potential. He's been dynamite during his two day starts going 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA while holding foes to a .182 average.
05-03-17	Angels v. Mariners -109		7-8	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
I don't like the Angels on the road, nor the pitching matchup they have going for them here. Now that the price has come down, I'm getting involved with the Mariners. Seattle has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times at home. The Angels are 6-9 on the road this season. The pitching matchup is journeyman Ricky Nolasco versus Hisashi Iwakuma. Give me Iwakuma, coming off a strong performance and with a 2.76 lifetime ERA versus the Angels in 20 games. That ERA shrinks to 2.32 when he's pitched against the Angels at Safeco Field, which has been 10 times. Nolasco is 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in six career outings versus the Mariners. I also don't like the Angels' late relief, which has been thinned by injuries.
05-03-17	Phillies v. Cubs OVER 6.5		4-5	Win	100	6 h 57 m	Show
The weather is going to be cold and there will be a slight wind blowing in, but now that this total has gone under 7 I'm involved in the Over. Jerad Eickhoff has a 4.91 road ERA and the Phillies' bullpen lacks a dominant closer. I can't see their pitching shutting down the Cubs offense. The over has cashed in 12 of Chicago's last 14 games. Jake Arrieta isn't the same pitcher he was before the mid-point of last season. He's still good, but no longer great. The Phillies have a number of underrated hitters that can take advantage.
05-03-17	Pirates -122 v. Reds	Top	2-7	Loss	-122	19 h 48 m	Show
The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games and starting Rookie Davis against Jameson Taillon here. This is a mismatch of epic porportions that isn't being priced that way. Taillon is a star in the making. He had a 3.38 ERA last season during his rookie season and is even better this season with a 2-0 mark and 2.08 ERA. The Pirates are 14-6 in his last 20 starts. Taillon is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts against the Reds. This could be the last time to play against Davis because it won't be long before he's pulled from Cincinnati's rotation. The first-year major leaguer is making his fourth career start. He's pitched 9 2/3 innings and allowed 18 hits, including three homers. His ERA is 11.72. The most he's gone is four innings. The Reds' bullpen is suspect especially their middle relief. The Pirates are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 40 runs in their last six games. Free Wednesday Play Blue Jays minus $1.04 at Yankees The price is right to back the Blue Jays, who hold a strong starting pitching edge with Marcus Stroman facing 36-year-old C.C. Sabaitha. Stroman, who is from Long Island, always gets motivated to pitch against the Yankees. He is 5-2 lifetime against them with a 2.17 ERA. Stroman is pitching well this season allowing two runs or less in four of his five starts. Sabathia started well this year, but already is starting to fade. He is 0-1 in his last two starts with a 9.28 ERA. He was hammered by the Orioles during his last start this past Friday for seven runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Yankees are likely to be down to third-string catcher Kyle Higashioka in this game. Starting catcher Gary Sanchez is rehabbing in Triple A and backup Austin Romine suffered a groin injury on Tuesday night and had to leave the game. Higashioka doesn't have a hit in 15 at bats this season. New York has other injuries, too, with first baseman Greg Bird on the DL and Jacoby Ellsbury bothered by a nerve injury in his left elbow.
05-02-17	Mets v. Braves UNDER 8.5	Top	7-9	Loss	-105	6 h 37 m	Show
Matt Harvey didn't look good in his last start, which was unexpected when he was forced to fill-in. Harvey, though, is regaining his pre-injury dominance. I have confidence in him against the Braves especially now that's he fully prepared. The under has cashed five of the last six times Harvey has pitched on the road. I'm also liking R.A. Dickey in this spot. Dickey hasn't yielded more than three earned runs during any of his four starts this season. Dickey is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four career appearances versus the Mets. The Mets' lineup isn't nearly as fierce minus Yoenis Cespedes, their best power hitter.
05-01-17	Indians v. Tigers +127		1-7	Win	127	11 h 18 m	Show
I'm not a fan of Trevor Bauer. This is too high of a road price to lay with Bauer against southpaw Danniel Norris. The Indians have lost seven of the last eight times they've faced a lefty starter. Bauer had a 6.39 ERA last September. He's continued bad with a 6.26 ERA with one quality start in four outings this season. Bauer already has surrenderd 11 extra-base hits in 23 innings, including five homers. Bauer has a 7.24 career ERA versus the Tigers in 11 appearances, including 10 starts. Norris, by contrast, has a 2-0 mark with a 1.69 ERA in four career starts versus the Indians.
05-01-17	Blue Jays +157 v. Yankees		7-1	Win	157	11 h 12 m	Show
This is a nice underdog value price. Toronto starter Marco Estrada has given up just two runs during this last three starts spanning 21 innings. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts this year. Estrada went 2-0 versus the Yankees last season with a 3.12 ERA in four starts. The Yankees are going with Luis Severino. New York is 4-12 in Severino's last 16 starts. Severino is showing signs of living up to his great potential, but has yet to prove consistent. So this is too high of a price on him. Severino is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA in five career starts versus the Blue Jays. The Yankees' bullpen carries a fatigue rating, too, after a wild three-game series against the Orioles.
04-30-17	Cubs v. Red Sox UNDER 9	Top	2-6	Win	100	15 h 44 m	Show
Both starters - Kyle Hendricks and Eduardo Rodriguez - are good pitchers coming off excellent performances. Hendricks was due for some regression after leading the National League in earned run average last season. But his slow start was too much regression. He finally showed signs of turning his season around in his last start holding the Pirates scoreless in six innings with six strikeouts in a 1-0 win this past Tuesday. Hendricks is in his prime at 27. The Red Sox have never faced him. Only Hanley Ramirez and Josh Rutledge have at bats against him. Rodriguez is a very promising pitcher who has been held back by injuries. Now he's healthy. He was brilliant in his last start giving up one hit in six inning with seven strikeouts this past Sunday at Balitmore in a 6-2 victory over the Orioles. The Cubs have never faced Rodriguez either. Ben Zobrist is the only Chicago player with at bats against Rodriguez. Opponents are batting just .172 against Rodriguez. The under has cashed 78 percent of the time during Rodriguez's last 28 starts. Each team has a very strong closer, too. The weather isn't going to help the hitters either with temperatues forecast to be in the 40's for this Sunday night game.
04-29-17	Phillies +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	5-6	Win	100	16 h 20 m	Show
The Phillies are better than perceived winners of six of their last seven. If given 1 1/2 runs, they would be 15-3 in their last 18 games. They have a higher winning percentage than the Dodgers. The pitching matchup pits Zach Eflin against Brandon McCarthy. Eflin is way below the radar screen. He's retired 33 of the last 39 batters he's faced and holds a 2.25 ERA. Philadelphia is 7-3 in his last last 10 starts. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Eflin a surprise element. McCarthy also has a 2.25 ERA, but has gotten far more publicity pitching for the Dodgers and going 3-0. McCarthy isn't nearly this good a pitcher. He's due for regression and has never beaten the Phillies. Philadelphia has scored four or more runs in 15 of its last 19 games. The Dodgers rank 21st in runs scored at 4.2 per game.
04-29-17	Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5		12-4	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
Jhoulys Chacin is a Petco Park pitcher. He can't pitch anywhere else. His road ERA is 11.93. Matt Cain isn't the three-time All-Star of years past. He hasn't been effective since 2012. His ERA the past two years is 5.64 and 5.79. He had a 7.82 ERA in 25 1/3 spring training innings giving up 37 hits. But because he's put together a surprising three quality starts in a row we have a total under 8 here. I'm not buying such a low total considering these two starting pitchers, neither of whom could be 100 percent. The Padres have a shaky bullpen and the Giants are vulnerable in middle relief and in in the setup roles. So these starters can't expect their bullpen to pull them out either. San Diego has surprising pop and the Giants are due to hit better.
04-28-17	Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8		5-7	Win	100	10 h 40 m	Show
These two teams have been scoring runs and that's reflected with the Reds going over in their last six games and the Cardinals going over in their last four. Discount a 9-1 loss to the Brewers two games ago and the Reds are averaging 6.2 runs in their last five games. The Cardinals are averaging 5.8 runs in their last six games sparked by a hot Dexter Fowler, the catalyst to their attack. The pitching matchup is Tim Adleman versus Lance Lynn. Adleman was hit hard during spring training. He's only in the Reds' starting rotation because of injuries. Adelman started 13 games last season and gave up 13 homers. So he's very vulnerable to the long ball. Lynn is making a comeback after missing all of last season because of Tommy John surgery. He is pitching well, but pitchers coming off serious elbow surgery like Lynn did usually need a couple of years before regaining consistency. The Reds' lineup should be more powerful at cather with Devin Mesoraco set to make his season debut. Note there is a 50 percent chance of rain. A long rain delay could put middle relievers into the game sooner and for greater stretches. Neither team has strong bullpen depth.
04-28-17	Angels v. Rangers +112		6-3	Loss	-100	9 h 39 m	Show
The combination of the Angels being on the road and pitching Tyler Skaggs puts me on Texas at this price. The Angels have dropped seven of their last eight away matchups. They are 4-9 in Skaggs' past 13 starts. Skaggs has a 4.44 ERA. He has a lifetime 6.20 ERA versus Texas. The Rangers just faced him on April 11 getting to him for five runs on eight hits in five innings. Texas starter Nick Martinez looked good in his last start. He's pitching for his spot in the rotation so this game means a lot. He has a 2.51 lifetime ERA in six starts and two relief apperances against the Angels. The Rangers are coming of a season-high in runs and hits during a 14-3 win against the Twins on Wednesday. Stephen Nover's Free Friday Play Royals minus $1.28 hosting Twins How much do I want to fade Kyle Gibson? Enough to lay a price with the Royals, who are coming off an 0-7 road trip and are the lowest-scoring team in the majors. Gibson is in the argument for worst starting pitcher in the majors. He was brutal last season going 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA and he has the second-highest ERA (9.00) of starting pitchers who have thrown at least 17 innings this year. The 0-3 Gibson couldn't reach the fourth inning against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday giving up seven runs before departing. He's surrendered 17 runs in 17 innings. The Twins have been patient with Gibson because he was their first-round pick in 2009. They had high hopes for him. But he is who he is. He's 32-41 lifetime with a 4.72 ERA and getting worse not better as the league is familiar with him. Gibson is a sinkerball pitcher. But he hasn't been getting ground ball outs the past two seasons. His fly ball rate of 30.2 percent this season would be a career-high. Opponents are batting an insane .467 with an on-base plus slugging percentage of 1.343 when facing Gibson the second time through the order. Gibson's stuff is totally ineffective. Going against Gibson is the biggest reason why I'm involved in this game. There are other factors, though. The Royals are a good home team. That's held up this season where they have a winning record. The Twins are a bad road club losers of 22 of their past 32 away contests. Royals starter Ian Kennedy is off to an excellent start even if his record is 0-2. He has a 2.08 ERA. Kennedy made five starts against the Twins last season and went 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA. Kansas City is 5-1 the past six times Kennedy has faced Minnesota. The Royals need to turn things around now at home to regain the faith of their fans. This is a team, remember, that won the World Series just two years ago and remains strong defensively. The Royals really want payback, too, after the Twins swept them in Minnesota to begin the season with two of those three defeats coming in blowout fashion. The Royals dominated the Twins last season winning 15 of 19, including going 9-1 at Kauffman Stadium. Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Alcides Escobar are all too good of players to be batting .220 or less. The Royals are due to bust out - and they couldn't fnd an easier pitcher to do it against. The price is low enough to get involved.
04-27-17	Blue Jays v. Cardinals OVER 8		4-8	Win	100	7 h 11 m	Show
This is the first game of a doubleheader after Wednesday's game was rained out. Toronto edged St. Louis, 6-5, on Tuesday. I can see a combined 11 runs coming again especially with Matt Latos one of the scheduled pitchers for this day game. Latos has a 5.76 career ERA versus St. Louis - and that's before he became a washed-up journeyman expected to depart from Toronto's startihng rotation following this game with the imminent returns of J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez. Latos made his season debut in his last outing this past Friday and gave up four runs in five-plus innings. This was against the Angels at pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium. Latos pitched even worse than his box score getting a couple of long ball outs that could have been homers at other ballparks. The Cardinals have got their bats going averaging 5.2 runs during their last five games. The Blue Jays broke out of their scoring slump averaging five runs during their last five games. They draw Carlos Martinez in this matchup. Martinez hasn't been sharp since opening day having had three consecutive disappointing starts. Martinez couldn't reach the seventh inning during any of his last three starts. During this three-game span, he's allowed 17 hits and 11 walks in 15 1/3 innings. Martinez has been merely average at home career-wise, too, with a 15-14 record and 3.77 ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen ranks 25th in ERA and St. Louis leads the league in errors.
04-26-17	Dodgers v. Giants +107		3-4	Win	107	14 h 10 m	Show
The Giants are banged-up, but the pitching matchup clearly is their favor making them worthy of being a home 'dog. Dodgers starter Alex Wood is a borderline rotation starter. He didn't look good in his last start giving up four runs and seven hits while failing to finish the fifth inning this past Friday at Arizona. Lifetime against the Giants, Wood is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA. LA is 0-5 in Wood's last five starts. By contrast, Johnny Cueto is an elite pitcher. He has a career 2.74 ERA versus the Dodgers in 13 starts, including going 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA against them last season. Cueto is on his normal four days rest. The Giants are 17-4 the past 21 times Cueto has pitched on four days rest.
04-26-17	Nationals v. Rockies UNDER 11.5	Top	11-4	Loss	-120	12 h 23 m	Show
It's easy to think a lot of runs are going to be scored here after the Nationals' 15-12 win Tuesday. Certainly the oddsmaker does setting such a high total. I understand this game is at Coors Field and the Rockies are swinging hot bats. Trea Turner is back for Washington making the Nationals' lineup more dangerous. But it takes a lot to go over this high of a total - and I don't see it happening here. Let's start with the starters: Tanner Roark versus Tyler Chatwood. Neither are elite pitchers. Both, however, are underrated. Roarke especially has proven solid the past couple of seasons. The under has cashed only twice in Roark's past 12 starts. The Rockies haven't faced Roark in two years having just seen him for one inning of relief in 2015. Chatwood has made only one start against the Nationals and that was back in 2013. So the hitters aren't going to be familar with the two starting pitchers. The Rockies' bullpen entered this series with the lowest ERA in the majors. Neither closer Greg Holland, nor any of Colorado's two best set-up relievers, pitched last night. There is a weather factor, too, that favors an under. The forecast is for temperatures in the mid-to-low 50's, which feels colder in Denver, and for the wind to be blowing in at 8-to-10 mph. The slated home plate umpire is Marty Foster, who has an under bias. Since 2012, the under has cashed 56 percent of the time Foster has been behind the plate.
04-25-17	Royals -130 v. White Sox		5-10	Loss	-130	8 h 56 m	Show
The Royals are in a scoring slump. But the huge starting pitching advantage and team defense make the Royals a worthy investment. The price is too low with Danny Duffy going against Dylan Covey. Since moving into the starting rotation last season, Duffy has been one of the better pitchers in the league going 14-3 with a 3.23 ERA. Duffy has been outstanding this season with a 1.32 ERA giving up four runs in four starts. The White Sox, despite their big offensive showing last night, aren't much better offensively than Kansas City and have a much worse starter going. Covey isn't ready for the big leagues. That's obvious after his first two starts where he's allowed five walks and three homers with only two strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .357 against him. Covery has a 7.84 ERA.
04-24-17	Royals -105 v. White Sox		1-12	Loss	-105	13 h 45 m	Show
Look way under the radar screen and you'll find Jason Vargas, who is on the comeback trail from Tommy John surgery. Vargas is 3-0 in his three starts this season with a 0.44 ERA giving up one earned run in 20 2/3 innings. He hasn't been scored upon during his past two starts spanning 14 2/3 innings. Both teams have weak offenses. But the Royals get to work against Miguel Gonzalez while the White Sox must try to solve Vargas while ranking 28th in runs and homers. Chicago has scored one run or fewer in three of its last four games. Gonzalez is 1-5 with a 4.36 ERA in his career versus the Royals. The Royals have dominated the White Sox in Chicago winning 27 of the past 37 times. Kansas City will have back Lorezno Cain, who was rested on Sunday, and also could get back catcher Salvador Perez, who has been dealing with a stiff neck.
04-24-17	Twins v. Rangers -131	Top	3-2	Loss	-131	13 h 19 m	Show
So much for the Twins. After opening the season with four straight wins, the Twins are back to being as bad as ever. Minnesota has lost six of its last seven and is heading to the road with little confidence and low spirits following a 2-7 homestand during the last 10 days. Minnesota is 8-21 (27 percent) in its past 29 away contests. Texas, on the other hand, is playing well winning six of its last seven at home. Matt Bush has shored up the Rangers' closer role and Martin Perez is pitching at home here where he historically has been very effective. Perez is 12-5 lifetime with a 3.36 ERA in 26 starts at Arlington. The Twins haven't seen him since 2012. Perez has pitched exceptionally well in three of his four starts this season. Twins hitters who have faced Perez are a combined six-for-34 against him. Another reason to fade Minnesota is starting pitcher Phil Hughes, who looks washed-up. Hughes has allowed 10 runs - eight earned - in his last two starts spanning 10 innings while giving up 13 hits and three walks during this span. He has a 5.40 ERA on the season. His ERA last season was 5.95.
04-24-17	Cubs -119 v. Pirates		14-3	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
The Pirates have dropped 21 of their last 31 home games and are drawing the Cubs in a foul mood after Chicago lost to Cincinnati on Sunday. The Cubs have by far the superior offense. This is especially so with Anthony Rizzo heating up and the Pirates missing two of their key offensive weapons with Starling Marte and Jung Ho Kang not on the team. Marte's absence really weakens the Pirates' both offensively and defensively. Brett Anderson has looked good for the Cubs backed by a strong defensive infield. Pirates starter Chad Kuhl was 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA in three starts against the Cubs last season during his rookie year. I much prefer the Cubs' bullpen, too.
04-23-17	Nationals -145 v. Mets		6-3	Win	100	14 h 23 m	Show
This is still a bargain even at this price range. The Nationals should be at least a 2-to-1 favorite against the Mets given the pitching matchup, current form of both teams and New York's multiple injuries. Washington has won six in a row. The Mets are 1-7 in their last eight while averaging 2.8 runs during this span. The Mets are down a number of key injured players, including Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, Travis d'Arnaud and Wilmer Flores. New York's patchwork lineup is going to have to deal with Max Scherzer, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, who is off to a great start with a 1.37 ERA. Scherzer has a lifetime ERA of 1.83 in 11 appearances against the Mets. Mets starter Zach Wheeler is making the transition from being sidelined the past two seasons. He has a 5.52 ERA this season and is 2-6 lifetime versus the Nationals with a 5.09 ERA. This is a mismatch of epic porportions and is priced way too low.
04-23-17	Giants v. Rockies UNDER 11.5		0-8	Win	100	9 h 32 m	Show
The battered Giants aren't hitting well enough to justify this high of a total even at Coors Field. San Francisco is barely averaging two runs a game during its last six games scoring 13 times during this span. The Giants have a cluster injury problem in their outfield with Denard Span, Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson out. Hunter Pencer didn't start yesterday because of a sore knee. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija has been terrible in his first three starts this season. The right-handed Samardzija, though, is better than he has shown and does have a good history versus the Rockies with a 2.55 ERA in 12 appearances, including eight starts. The under has cashed 11 of the last 14 times the Rockies have faced a righty starter at home. Intriguing southpaw Kyle Freeland gets the call for Colorado. The under has cashed nine of the last 12 times the Giants have gone against a lefty on the road. There's only a slight wind and that will be blowing in. Both teams have solid closers, too.
04-23-17	Tigers -101 v. Twins		13-4	Win	100	8 h 31 m	Show
The Twins shouldn't be favored in a pitching matchup of Michael Fulmer versus Kyle Gibson even at home and with the Tigers minus Miguel Cabrera. I lost hope on Gibson two years ago. His command has gotten worse since then and he's having another bad season this year with a 6.91 ERA. This is after compiling a 5.07 ERA last season. Fulmer, on the other hand, is following up on his excellent 2016 season. The right-hander has a 3.00 ERA in three starts. The Twins have lost 41 of the past 58 times versus a right- handed starter. The Tigers are 20-7 in Fulmer's last 27 starts for a winning percentage of 74 percent.
04-22-17	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +113		5-11	Win	113	7 h 43 m	Show
Arizona is 7-1 at home while the Dodgers are 2-5 on the road. The Diamondbacks have southpaw Robbie Ray going. The Dodgers struggle versus lefties especially on the road where they have lost 18 of the past 23 times versus them. The 25-year-old Ray is coming into his own. He has 24 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .161 against him, which is the second-lowest in the NL. Ray has a 2.80 lifetime ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers. Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is off to a slow start with a 7.07 ERA. He hasn't been able to get to the sixth inning during any of his three starts. He's facing a better offense, too, than the Dodgers have.
04-21-17	Marlins -112 v. Padres		3-5	Loss	-112	10 h 28 m	Show
The Marlins are a better team than the Padres and I like promising Adam Conley more than journeyman Trevor Cahill when it comes to starting pitchers. The Marlins have won in four of Conley's last five road starts. Miami also has the superior bullpen and defense. Cahill was pitching in relief last season. I'm not sold on him reverting back to being a starter. He's always vulnerable to giving up a big inning. He has a 4.66 career ERA versus the Marlins. The Marlins have been on the West Coast for three days now so they are acclimitated to the time change. San Diego rarely follows up a victory with another win. The Padres are 9-25 after winning in their previous game.
04-20-17	Cardinals -111 v. Brewers	Top	5-7	Loss	-111	9 h 52 m	Show
This is a cheap price to get a pitcher I consider elite in Carlos Martinez. Martinez has been wilder this season and getting less ground ball outs than usual, but he's among the National League leaders in strikeouts. The Brewers are a good matchup for him because they are a free-swinging tean that strikes out a lot. The Cardinals have won 19 of Martinez's last 27 road starts. I also like St. Louis' bullpen better than the Brewers' pen especially the closer. Milwaukee starter Zach Davies figured to regress this season and that's been the case. Davies isn't a hard thrower so he needs good control. Yet already he has walked eight in 14 1/3 innings after only giving up 38 bases on balls in 163 1/3 innings last season. His ERA is a fat 8.79.
04-19-17	Orioles -103 v. Reds		2-0	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
There's a class difference between these two teams. Yet the game is priced competitively because Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching for Baltimore, the Reds are home and starting Amir Garrett, who has looked good in the early going. The 33-year-old Jimenez can give the Reds problems, though, with his assortment of pitches and veteran savvy especially since many of the young Cincinnati hitters don't have experience with him. Jimenez had success against the Reds when he was in the National League going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in six career starts. It's easy to rip Jimenez, but Baltimore is 7-1 in his last eight starts. As far as the Reds being home, I love it that the Orioles get to hit in Great American Ball Park. The Orioles are an elite power-hitting team and Great American Ball Park is an elite hitter's park especially for home run hitters. The Reds have lost 35 of their last 51 interleague games versus a right-handed starter and are 5-11 during their past 16 home interleague games. Garrett, a 24-year-old rookie, has been a pleasant surprise during his first two big league starts. Those outings though were against the Cardinals, who have yet to start hitting, and the Pirates, who rank 26th in runs scored. The Orioles now have a couple games of film on Garrett and are a step up for him. Wednesday Free Play Giants at Royals Under 8 If the oddsmaker tricked me by making this total 8 instead of 7 1/2 than I congratulate him because he got my money. Because I certainly can't see more than seven runs being scored here even though there will be about a 10-15 mph wind blowing out to left. The Royals achieved the near impossible on Tuesday: They made washed-up Matt Cain look good. The Giants won that game with Cain, 2-1, in 11 innings. Now the Royals draw Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner could be the second-best lefty in baseball behind only Clayton Kershaw depending on how you feel about Chris Sale. Bumgarner has 24 strikeouts in 21 innings this season. Opponents are batting .222 against him. Kansas City is last in the majors in runs scored and third-from-the-bottom in batting average. The Royals haven't scored more than three runs in six of their last seven games. The Giants have managed just five runs in their last three games. They've been held to three runs or less in five of their past seven games. Royals starter Jason Vargas hadn't been healthy in two years. Now he's finally 100 percent again and has looked sharp in two starts giving up just one run in 13 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts. He's backed by one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Perhaps it's somewhat of a coincidence, but the under has cashed in Vargas' last nine starts. The under has also cashed in eight of the last nine games John Tumpane has been behind the plate. He's slated to be the home plate umpire today.
04-18-17	Diamondbacks -116 v. Padres		11-2	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
The price is low enough to back the superior team with the superior starter going. Shelby Miller is showing signs of having a big bounce back season with the velocity on his fastball up. Miller is far more talented than his numbers showed from last season. Jarred Cosart, the Padres starter, on the other hand is who he is. And that's a borderline major league who doesn't get many strikeouts and walks too many batters. He's not helped by having perhaps the weakest team in baseball behind him. This isn't a good spot either for the Padres being their first home game following a seven-game road trip that finished Sunday in Atlanta.
04-18-17	Rangers -126 v. A's		2-4	Loss	-126	12 h 51 m	Show
I've seen enough of Yu Darvish to believe he's back to being an elite pitcher. The Rangers' bullpen will be much better now that Matt Bush has been inserted into the closer role with Sam Dyson going on the DL. Bush is the Rangers' best reliever in my view. The A's have lost four in a row. They just lost power-hitting shorstop Marcus Semien for a couple of months. Oakland is hoping Andrew Triggs can end their losing streak. Triggs hasn't allowed an earned run in 11 2/3 innings this season spanning two outings. Triggs is a back end of the rotation type starter - if that - and is due for regression. He's faced 47 batters and has recorded just four strikeouts. The Rangers saw him twice last season when he was a rookie so they'll know what to expect.
04-17-17	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7		4-2	Loss	-115	10 h 50 m	Show
The Dodgers' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating after Rich Hill had to leave yesterday because of a blister after having pitched just three innings. The Diamondbacks have one of the better offenses ranking fifth in runs scored. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is due for some regression after two strong games. A key for McCarthy is getting ahead on the count. The Diamondbacks are an aggressive bunch who will go after the first strike. The Dodgers should do their share of damage against Robbie Ray even though they struggle versus lefties. Ray is a top strikeout pitcher, but he walks too many batters and gives up too many homers.
04-17-17	Marlins v. Mariners -127	Top	1-6	Win	100	17 h 37 m	Show
Bad spot, below average starting pitcher and terrible track record make the Marlins a strong fade today. Miami is fat and happy after beating the Mets for a third consecutive time on Sunday following a walk-off home run by rookie J.T. Riddle, his first in the majors. That concluded a 4-2 homestand for Miami. Now, though, the Marlins travel cross-country across three time zones to play the Mariners in Seattle. The last time the Marlins played at Safeco Field was 2011. The Marlins have lost 20 of their last 27 interleague road games. This is their longest trip. The Mariners will be playing their seventh consecutive home game. They are 4-2 in their last six games, including three victories in a row. So they are playing well, too. The pitching matchup is Tom Koehler versus lefty Ariel Miranda. Koehler is an inning-eating, fifth-starter type, who is average at best when pitching at Marlins Park and below adequate when pitching on the road. The 30-year-old Koehler is 16-25 with a 4.49 ERA career road mark. Koehler's has a 4.50 ERA in 18 all-time interleague starts. The Marlins have lost in nine of Koehler's last 10 starts. The Marlins have never faced Miranda. Miami has lost eight of the past nine times when facing a southpaw in an interleague road game. Miranda's two starts this season have come against the Astros, one was decent the other bad. Now he steps down in class facing the Marlins, who have never seen Miranda. Miranda has a lifetime winning record with the Mariners, who have won four of his last five home starts.
04-16-17	Rockies v. Giants -126		4-3	Loss	-126	8 h 48 m	Show
The Giants are dealing with injuries, but I like them to solve Rockies rookie Antonio Senzatela at home. Senzatela is making his third start of the season - and been surprisingly effective. But the Giants have two games of film on him now. Senzatela wasn't impressive during spring training going 0-4 with a 4.61 ERA. The Rockies are not a good road team and have lost 14 of the past 19 times following a victory going back to last season. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is a solid veteran with a 2.25 lifetime ERA versus the Rockies in 11 appearances, including seven starts.
04-16-17	Angels v. Royals +100		0-1	Win	100	6 h 59 m	Show
The combination of the Angels not hitting while pitching Tyler Skaggs, puts me on the Royals. The Angels have lost four in row, averaging 2.2 runs during this span. Skaggs isn't going to be in the majors too much longer if he keeps pitching so bad. He's 0-1 with an 8.71 ERA, while giving up 13 hits - including three homers - five walks and a hit batter in just 10 1/3 innings. The Royals are playing better now and Ian Kennedy is an upgrade on Skaggs.
04-15-17	Padres v. Braves +100		2-4	Win	100	6 h 13 m	Show
Despite getting to play three games at Coors Field, the Padres are averaging just 3.4 runs this season. I see their young lineup having problems facing knucleballer R.A. Dickey. Wil Myers and Erick Aybar are the only Padres players experienced facing Dickey and his knuckleball. They are a combined six-for36 against him. The Braves are basking in their new park. The Padres not only have to make the difficult adjustment to face a knuckleballer - a pitcher many of their players have yet to face - but also going from Coors to the humid conditions of Atlanta. Padres starter Clayton Richard has a 6.91 lifetime ERA versus Atlanta. The Padres have lost the past five times, too, facing the Braves.
04-14-17	Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	1-7	Loss	-100	15 h 34 m	Show
The Diamondbacks and Zach Greinke are playing much better than they did last season. Arizona is 7-3 with a new found sense of confidence and optimism. Greinke is past his shoulder issues that plagued him last season. He's 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in his two starts this season. Compare this to Clayton Kershaw, who is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA after giving up four runs on eight hits in six innings against the Rockies during his last start. That outing was at Coors Field. Kershaw figures to be much better at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Against Arizona, though, Kershaw has been good but not dominant sporting a lifetime mark of 12-8 with a 2.75 ERA. The total is less than seven here so few runs are expected. Asking the Dodgers to win by more than a run is asking a lot especially when LA gets one fewer at bat being the home team. The Dodgers just flew in from Chicago where they lost, 4-0, to the Cubs on Thursday. This is their first home game in more than a week. The loss to the Cubs completed a six-game road trip. Discount a 10-run performance against the Rockies at Coors and the Dodgers have scored seven runs in their last five games. While the Dodgers were changing two time zones, the Diamondbacks have been resting. They were idle Thursday. The Diamondbacks rank No. 2 in runs scored and batting average. Just two years ago, Greinke finished second in the National League Cy Young voting while pitching for the Dodgers. Greinke certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team and Kershaw. Arizona has won 10 of Greinke's last 13 road starts. The Diamondbacks are the better offensive team, have their own stud pitcher going and are in a good spot taking on an opponent that just concluded a long road trip. Kershaw is again way overpriced. Taking 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Diamondbacks is good insurance.
04-14-17	Angels v. Royals -124		1-7	Win	100	9 h 40 m	Show
I'm not sure what the marketplace is thinking, but the number has come down far enough where I can now get involved with the Royals. Kansas City showed signs of getting straighten out on Thursday ending a long losing streak to the A's. Now the Royals have a strong pitching edge with Danny Duffy against J.C. Ramirez. Duffy isn't getting any marketplace love, but he had a strong half last season and is showing signs of coming into his own. Ramirez has a 5.14 ERA and is a journeyman reliever drawing a start in place of Garrett Richards. Ramirez couldn't even stick with the Reds last season. I don't like his stuff, nor his metrics.
04-14-17	Mets v. Marlins OVER 7		2-3	Loss	-120	8 h 54 m	Show
The offenses of these two teams have been on fire and the bullpens carry high fatigue ratings after Thursday's 9-8 16-inning Mets victory. Miami relievers threw 13 innings while New York's bullpen accounting for 11 1/3 innings in that game. The Mets lead the majors in homers and are fourth in runs scored. They are averaging 7.4 runs during their last five games. The Marlins are fifth in the league in runs scored while averaging 6.1 runs during their last six games. Yoenis Cespedes has smacked five homers in the last three games. Marcell Ozuna has driven home 10 runs in his last three games. These are two of the hottest-hitting power-hitters in baseball. The total is so low because Noah Syndergaard is starting for the Mets. However, Edinson Volquez is getting the start for Miami. He's several rungs below Syndergaard. The fences also have been moved in at Marlins Park. It's still a pitcher's park, but not quite as much as before.
04-13-17	A's v. Royals -127		1-3	Win	100	10 h 51 m	Show
I understand it's risky to lay a price with a team that so far hasn't been playing well, which is the case here with the 2-6 Royals. But I don't see the A's sweeping the Royals in Kansas City especially with today's starting pitching matchup, which pits Jesse Hahn versus southpaw Jason Vargas. Hahn is a long innings reliever, No. 5 type starter, who couldn't crack Oakland's starting rotation out of spring training. But he'll get the start here - his first of the season - replacing Raul Alcantara. The A's likely made a mistake in giving Alcantara a starting rotation spot. But Hahn isn't much, if any, of an upgrade. The A's gave Hahn nine starts last season - and he posted a 6.02 ERA. The Royals' problem is putting up just eight runs when having had 52 base runners in scoring position. That's the worst mark in the majors and had largely contributed to Kansas City going 19 scoreless innings. But the Royals showed signs of breaking out of their slump scoring a combined three runs during the eighth and ninth innings last night. Vargas underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015. It often can take two years for a pitcher to fully recover from that serious elbow surgery. I liked what I saw from Vargas in his opening start this season. He beat the Astros, 5-1, at Houston last Friday displaying excellent command and good velocity on his fastball. Vargas gave up one run in six innings allowing six hits with six strikeouts and one walk. The A's have owned the Royals lately winning eight in a row against them. However, the Royals are 7-0 during Vargas' past seven starts at Kauffman Stadium. Vargas has thrown two shutouts against Oakland and owns a lifetime 3.22 ERA versus the A's. Oakland also has been terrible when facing lefties losing 22 of the past 30 times.
04-13-17	Dodgers v. Cubs -120		0-4	Win	100	2 h 23 m	Show
I'm a fan of lefty Brett Anderson, especially when he's healthy and pitching for a great team like he is now backed by an outstanding defensive infield. The Dodgers struggle versus southpaws. They also have injuries. Hyun-Jin Ryu will be making his second start coming back from serious arm woes. He's not ready to go deep into games. The price is low enough to back the superior, healthy team with the pitching edge.
04-12-17	Astros -109 v. Mariners		10-5	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Seattle has problems. That's evident by the Mariners' 2-7 start. Shortstop Jean Segura is on the DL and the team isn't hitting ranking 28th in batting. I don't see things improving for the Mariners in this game, not with a pitching matchup of Mike Fiers versus Yovani Gallardo. Fiers posted a 1.98 ERA during spring training and was sharp in his regular season debut holding Kansas City to one earned run in six innings. He hasn't allowed more than three walks in a game for the past 35 starts. Fiers pitched once last year at Safeco Field and shut out the Mariners pitching six innings. Gallardo is a shot pitcher, far removed from his All-Star days of seven years ago. Gallardo has lost a lot on his fastball. He posted a 5.42 ERA with the Orioles last season in 23 starts and wasn't impressive during spring training with an 0-2 mark and 7.47 ERA in five outings.
04-11-17	Reds v. Pirates OVER 8		6-2	Push	0	10 h 2 m	Show
These teams opened their series Monday with the Reds winning, 7-1. Both bullpens had to go long innings in the game. Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow couldn't make it out of the second inning while Reds starter Brandon Finnegan couldn't survive the third inning. Neither bullpen is upper echelon especially the Reds. And both carry high fatigue ratings. I do like Pirates starter Jameson Taillon. But the Reds are going with Rookie Davis, who will be making his second big league start. He got shelled in his debut this past Thursday giving up four runs on five hits and two walks in three innings versus the Phillies. Davis' ERA is 12.00. The Reds have scored four or more runs in four of their last five games, including seven or more runs in three of their last five. The Pirates had scored 17 runs during their three previous games until Monday's game. Weather-wise there's an 8-to-10 mph wind blowing out to left. There's also a possibility of rain, which could mean more extended bullpen innings. One trend to note involving scheduled home plate Mike DiMuro. The over has cashed in 10 of his last 12 games behind the plate.
04-08-17	Marlins v. Mets -120		8-1	Loss	-120	12 h 28 m	Show
I like the Mets to bounce back today at home after losing to the Marlins in the opener of the series on Friday. The Mets are the better team and have the superior starting pitcher in a matchup of southpaw Adam Conley versus Robert Gsellman. I'm high on Gsellman, who was 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA in eight games last season. The Marlins have never faced him. The Mets just faced a southpaw yesterday. Now they draw Conley, who missed the last six weeks of last season because of left hand teninitis. Conley didn't look good in spring training giving up 12 runs, including nine earned, in 15 2/3 innings.
11-02-16	Cubs v. Indians +110	Top	8-7	Loss	-100	9 h 6 m	Show
Sorry Cubs fans. Wrong team is favored. The Indians will take this Game 7. Home field, better manager and stronger pitching will prove to be the difference. Cubs starter Kyle Hendrick was dominant - at Wrigley Field. His road record is 7-6 with a 2.95 ERA compared to 10-3 with a 1.32 ERA at home. Joe Maddon foolishly burned out Aroldis Chapman by having him throw a combined 62 pitches in Games 5 and 6. It was totally unnecessary to have used Chapman for 1 1/3 innings last night when the Cubs had a huge lead. That's managing scared. I prefer the steady hand of savvy Terry Francona. This is what Francona and the Indians have going for them: Corey Kluber to start. Kluber has been magnificent beating the Cubs twice already allowing just one run in each of his two victories. He has 15 strikeouts in 12 innings. Kluber is on short rest. He should be good for five innings. Then Francona turns to Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, both of whom are well rested and have been unhittable, too, in this series. Miller has been the Indians' ace in the hole the entire playoffs with a 0,53 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 17 postseason innings. Allen hasn't given up a run in 11 2/3 scoreless innings with 22 strikeouts.
11-01-16	Cubs -152 v. Indians		9-3	Win	100	20 h 10 m	Show
The Cubs have regained the momentum and have their confidence up. They also have the superior starting pitching matchup with Jake Arrieta going against Josh Tomlin. Arrieta beat the Indians at Progressive Field in Game 2 taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning. He ended up holding the Indians to one run on two hits with six strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. The Cubs are 37-16 in Arrieta's road starts. The right-handed Tomlin is pitching on three day's rest. His home ERA is 4.31. The Cubs have won 44 of the last 59 times they've faced a righty starter. The Cubs also are able to get dangerous Kyle Schwarber into the lineup as the DH something they couldn't do when they played at Wrigley Field.
10-29-16	Indians v. Cubs -127	Top	7-2	Loss	-127	10 h 4 m	Show
The Indians are threatening to take a 3-1 World Series lead and win a second straight game at Wrigley Field. I don't see it happening. Yes, there's a concern about the Cubs not scoring runs. I can't stand watching Jason Hayward, who has become an automatic out when he plays. But if you take away the Indians' 6-0 opening game World Series victory, Cleveland isn't scoring either. The Indians, discounting that first game, have scored six runs in four games. The Cubs are 21-6 following a loss. They have won 36 of their last 51 home contests. Indians starter Corey Kluber is going on just three day's rest. Both Andrew Miller and Cody Allen pitched more than an inning last night. Cubs starter John Lackey is an experienced post-season pitcher. He pitched his best at Wrigley Field this season going 7-4 with a 2.62 ERA. The Cubs have won Lackey's last five starts and six of his past seven home starts.
10-25-16	Cubs v. Indians +104	Top	0-6	Win	104	21 h 9 m	Show
The giddy Cubs still may not have come down to Earth by the time this game starts. Even if they do, I like the Indians to win this game. It's a nice bonus to get them as a home underdog. As great a postseason pitcher as Jon Lester is, the Indians still hold a pitching edge in this game with Corey Kluber and Andrew Miller. Kluber has been dominant in the playoffs. So has Miller, who has pitched 11 2/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs with 21 strikeouts and just five hits allowed. I don't see the Cubs scoring much, likely facing nine innings of Kluber/Miller. The Indians have won 68 percent of Kluber's past 60 home starts. They are 20-7 during Kluber's last 27 starts. The Cubs have only seen Kluber once. That was last year in August. Kluber gave up one run in 7 2/3 innings in that game with 11 strikeouts. The left-handed Lester, on the other hand, has a 3.72 ERA in eight career starts against the Indians at Progressive Field. The Indians had one of the top marks in the majors versus southpaws going 31-20. Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 games. They have hold the pitching edge and are home. The Cubs are considering using Kyle Schwarber as their DH. Schwarber has been out since early April because of knee surgery. Talk about rust. The Indians should not be underdogs here.
10-20-16	Cubs -152 v. Dodgers	Top	8-4	Win	100	11 h 31 m	Show
Not only did the Cubs break out of their slump, but they got their swagger and confidence back in their 10-2 road win against the Dodgers Wednesday. Now the Cubs have a huge pitching edge in today's Game 5 matchup of lefty Jon Lester against Kenta Maeda. Not only did Lester have a Cy Young Award-worthy regular season, but he's a postseason monster giving up just one run in 14 playoff innings. No team had a harder time hitting lefties this season than the Dodgers. LA ranked last in batting average versus southpaws at .213. The Dodgers also were last against lefties in OBP, OPS and slugging percentage. They've been helpless against Lester, who has a 0.86 ERA versus the Dodgers in three starts spanning 21 innings this season, including Game 1 of this series. Chicago is 24-7 in Lester's last 31 starts. The Cubs also have rested dominant lefty Aroldis Chapman to close. By contrast, Maeda has been terrible. He hasn't reached the fifth inning in any of his last four starts, including his last one against the Cubs in Game 1 of this NLCS yielding three runs in four innings. Before that outing, Maeda had allowed 12 runs in three starts spanning only 9 2/3 innings. Maeda has hit the wall giving up 12 runs in his last three starts spanning only 9 2/3 innings, the last coming this past Sunday in a loss to the Giants.
10-17-16	Indians v. Blue Jays -172	Top	4-2	Loss	-172	9 h 8 m	Show
This is the Blue Jays game to win and not just because they are down 0-2 and coming home to their quirky Astroturf field. They also have a strong starting pitching edge for the first time in the series. Trevor Bauer has a 6.27 ERA in four career games versus the Blue Jays, including three starts. He has a 7.11 ERA in two career appearances at Rogers Centre. Look for the Blue Jays bats to come alive at home with the roof likely to be closed. Bauer made his postseason debut during Game 1 of the AL Division series against Boston. He was smacked for three runs on five hits - including two homers - and couldn't make it out of the fourth inning. Marcus Stroman has made four playoff starts. He gave up two runs on four hits in six innings against the Orioles during his postseason start this year. Stroman holds a 1.29 ERA in two starts against Cleveland this season with 15 strikeouts in 14 innings. Toronto has won 22 of the last 32 times Stroman has pitched on Astroturf.
10-15-16	Dodgers v. Cubs -183	Top	4-8	Win	100	21 h 44 m	Show
I don't like to lay nearly 2/1 on a baseball game, but I can't see the Cubs losing this game with southpaw Jon Lester facing a cold Kenta Maeda and the Dodgers not likely to have closer Kenley Jansen - their one consistent reliever - available. The Dodgers went all out to eliminate the Nationals this past Thursday using both Jansen and Clayton Kershaw to nail down a 4-3 victory. Jansen threw 51 pitches and was gassed. The Cubs are the best team in baseball. They are home, rested and have their best money pitcher going. This is almost a give-up game for the Dodgers. Maeda has hit the wall giving up 12 runs in his last three starts spanning only 9 2/3 innings, the last coming this past Sunday in a loss to the Giants. Lester had another brilliant season and will draw Cy Young consideration. The Dodgers do not match up well to him. No team was worse against southpaws than Los Angeles. The Dodgers rank last against lefties in batting average (.213), OBP, OPS and slugging percentage. The combination of Lester and lefty closer Aroldis Chapman available if needed should severely limit the Dodgers. Maeda and a spent bullpen certainly can't be counted on to keep the Cubs in check.
10-14-16	Blue Jays v. Indians -131	Top	0-2	Win	100	24 h 19 m	Show
I look at this opening game between the Blue Jays and Indians and I want a rested Corey Kluber - backed by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen - going for me. That's a potential 10 innings of stud pitching. The Blue Jays can't match that with Marco Estrada starting and less dependable late-inning relievers. Kluber is coming off another brilliant season, 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA, capped by seven scoreless innings in a 6-0 playoff victory against the Red Sox. Cleveland's bullpen tied with Kansas City for having the second-lowest ERA in the league at 3.45. The Indians' bullpen combined to go 1-0 with two saves and a 1.74 ERA in the team's three-game sweep of Boston. Allen has two saves, five strikeouts and no runs allowed in three innings. Miller is the Indians' biggest relief weapon because he can close, or pitch during any inning. Indians manager Terry Francona handled Miller brilliantly this season and during the playoffs. The Indians averaged more runs per game than the Blue Jays. Cleveland has a huge base running edge leading the AL in steals and ranking second in MLB in stolen base percentage. Toronto catcher Russell Martin ranked last among MLB qualifiers in throwing out runners at 15.3 percent. Cleveland had the most home wins of any American League team going 53-28 at Progressive Field.
10-11-16	Cubs v. Giants +115	Top	6-5	Loss	-100	6 h 5 m	Show
I'll take a plus price with the resilient Giants at home. The Cubs have never faced southpaw Matt Moore, who has allowed just two runs during his last two starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Moore has been tough at home lately, too, holding opponents to two runs or less in each of his past four starts at AT&T Park. Chicago is 1-4 the last five times it has faced a lefty starter. The Giants have plenty of playoff experience, which the Cubs lack. San Francisco has won the past 10 times in playoff elimination games under Bruce Bochy. They are a proven commodity in this type of situation. The Cubs aren't. Cubs starter John Lackey is past his prime. His road ERA is 4.37 compared to 2.62 at Wrigley Field. Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman looks vulnerable, too, far from the dominant closer he had been.
10-10-16	Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers		8-3	Win	100	13 h 47 m	Show
The Nationals should be able to hang in with the Dodgers in this spot - if not win outright with lefty Gio Gonzalez facing rookie Kenta Maeda. No team had a lower batting average versus southpaws than the Dodgers at .213. Gonzalez has taken advantage posting a 3-1 lifetime mark against the Dodgers with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts. LA's batters have a combined .163 average when facing Gonzalez. Maeda has been consistent all season. But he's hit the wall giving up eight runs in his last two starts spanning just 6 2/3 innings. Since the All-Star break, Maeda has a 4.25 ERA. He's not the same pitcher he was during the first half of the season when teams had never faced him. The Nationals are 12-3 in their last 15 games if plus 1 1/2 runs, while the Dodgers are 1-8 in their past nine games at minus 1 1/2 runs.
10-07-16	Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 9.5		5-3	Win	100	13 h 58 m	Show
Two strong starting pitchers, the wind blowing in and an under home plate umpire combined with a total priced too high make this a solid under play. Toronto starter J.A. Happ enjoyed a career season. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five starts. Rangers starter Yu Darvish has gone at least six innings allowing one or no runs with one or fewer walks and at least nine strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Darvish comes into this matchup fresh, too. He pitched just 100 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays haven't seen him this season. Darvish has made just one big league postseason start, which came four years ago. However, when he pitched in Japan he went 8-2 with 1.38 ERA during 11 playoff starts. The under has cashed 12 of the last 14 times the Blue Jays have gone against a right-handed starter. The under also has cashed the last five times Darvish has pitched against the Blue Jays. The weather forecast is for wind to be blowing in at 10-11 mph. Lance Barksdale is slated to be the home plate ump. The under has cashed 59 percent of the time he's been the home plate umpire during the last two seasons.
10-05-16	Giants v. Mets OVER 6	Top	3-0	Loss	-100	13 h 30 m	Show
Sure, on paper, it looks like these two teams will have trouble breaking the six-run barrier with a pitching matchup of lefty Madison Bumgarner versus righty Noah Syndergaard. But there are a number of factors that point to this low total going over. It's not too much to ask either of these two teams to put up three runs apiece, which would be enough to push this above the total. The Giants have scored at least three runs in seven of their last eight games. They've faced some excellent starters, too, during this span, including Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto and Rich Hill. San Francisco has gone over six of the past seven times it has faced a righty starter. The Giants square off against Syndergaard without a weak hitter in the lineup as Bumgarner is one of the best-hitting pitchers in baseball. The Mets were able to overcome devastating injuries to three of their key young pitchers by playing long-ball smacking a franchise-record 218 homers. That was the second-most in the National League. Bumgarner wasn't that sharp either down the stretch surrendering four or more runs in four of his last nine starts.The over cashed in seven of his last 10 starts. The Mets also have gone above the total seven of the past eight times they've faced a southpaw starter. The over has cashed five of the last six times Bumgarner has opposed the Mets. San Francisco also has a shaky bullpen. It blew five ninth-inning leads in September.
10-04-16	Orioles +141 v. Blue Jays	Top	2-5	Loss	-100	20 h 12 m	Show
I'm attracted to the 'dog here. The Orioles led the majors in homers, are playing better than the Blue Jays and hold a bullpen edge. I'd rate the starting pitching matchup of Chris Tillman versus Marcus Stroman nearly even with maybe a slight edge again to the Orioles. Baltimore is 7-2 in its last nine games. Toronto is 13-16 since the start of September. Since then the Blue Jays have averaged an AL-worst 3.6 runs per game. The Orioles paced the majors with 253 homers. Tillman posted a 2.38 ERA in two starts at Rogers Centre. Tillman has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts. He's backed by the best closer in the American League, if not all of baseball, in Zach Britton, who was a perfect 47-for-47 in save chances. Britton made seven appearances against the Blue Jays this season holding them scoreless in eight innings. Stroman last won on Aug. 14. The Orioles just beat him this past Thursday getting four runs on nine hits and two walks in seven-plus innings. Toronto's bullpen hasn't looked good. Closer Roberto Osuna threw 46 pitches during the weekend so fatigue is a factor.
09-30-16	Orioles +122 v. Yankees	Top	8-1	Win	122	8 h 25 m	Show
The Yankees were riding high after sweeping three games from the Red Sox. But that high is now a low after the Yankees were eliminated from playoff contention last night This is what Yankees manager Joe Girardi was quoted as saying following that loss: "It's not what we wanted. It's pretty quiet in there. Probably the quietest I've ever seen after a win. I think guys realize it came to an end tonight. It's difficult. There were some good things that happened, but again we fell short and we didn't have a successful season." I don't see the Yankees being up for this game. The Orioles are the better team and in the underdog role. That's enticing. Baltimore is playing hard for its playoff berth and playing well winning five of six. The pitching matchup is Yovani Gallardo versus Michael Pineda. Gallardo pitched well in his last outing holding the Diamondbacks to two runs on six hits in six innings. A key for the Yankees has been phenomenal rookie Gary Sanchez. However, he's coming off an 0-for-5 game with four strikeouts and has only one hit in his last 19 at bats. The Yankees opened as favorites because they're home and Pineda has been pitching well. He is 6-11 on the season with a 4.68 ERA, though, and has made a career-high 31 starts. I don't think his heart will be in this game.
09-28-16	A's v. Angels -126		6-8	Win	100	11 h 7 m	Show
This is short enough price to fade the A's, who are starting Sonny Gray. The A's aren't expecting much from Gray, who has battled assorted arm injuries this season and has a 5.67 ERA. He may only pitch one inning having last pitched seven weeks ago. The A's just want to give him a little work before next season. The Angels are playing well winning six of their last seven. The A's are merely playing the streak out losing seven of their last eight. The Angels have beaten the A's five of the past six times they've hosted them.
09-28-16	A's v. Angels OVER 8.5		6-8	Win	100	11 h 6 m	Show
I give Sonny Gray a lot of credit working his way back to make a start before the end of the season. Gray, though, has been terrible this season and hasn't pitched since Aug. 6. He's going to be rusty and on a strict pitch count, too. Gary has dealt with a straight right forearm and an inflamed elbow. He has a 5.74 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The purpose of Gary's start is to get some work before next year. The A's aren't expecting much. Angels starter Alex Meyer is a rookie who has flashed but remains very inconsistent. He has a 5.02 ERA in his last three starts giving up eight walks in 14 1/3 innings during this span. These two teams have a strong over bias when playing in Anaheim as the over is 16-4-1 during the past 21 meetings. The A's have gone above the total in seven of their last nine away contests The over also has cashed 60 percent of the time during the three years Tom Woodring has been behind the plate. He's slated to be the home plate ump.
09-28-16	Mariners -106 v. Astros	Top	12-4	Win	100	4 h 23 m	Show
I like the Mariners to beat the Astros here. The pitching matchup is James Paxton versus Doug Fister, who has become the weak part of the Astros rotation. Paxton has been sharp lately with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 27-to-3 strikeouts-to-walk ratio this month. Seattle is playing well on the road winning nine of its last 11 away contests. Fister may be at the end of the line. Houston has lost the last six times he's pitched. Fister has compiled a 9.35 ERA during this six-game span. He has a 4.64 lifetime ERA versus Seattle, including a 6.86 ERA in four starts this season.
09-27-16	Reds v. Cardinals -1.5	Top	5-12	Win	100	13 h 35 m	Show
Sitting one game behind the Giants for the second wild-card spot in the National League, the Cardinals desperately need to win this home game. The Reds embarrassed the Cardinals, 15-2, on Monday night. I see the Cardinals coming back today. So does the oddsmaker because he's opened the Cardinals more than a 2-to-1 favorite to win. So to get around this high juice while keeping the Cardinals in play I'm making this a run line play. The Cardinals have won by more than one run during nine of their last 11 victories. They have the right motivation and pitching matchup to win big here. Reds starter rookie Robert Stephenson returned to the majors early this month. He's made four starts since then and hasn't won. He's given up four runs in each of his last three starts going less than four innings in two of them. Stephenson has a 5.59 ERA. The Reds' bullpen ranks among the worst in baseball. The Cardinals are going with veteran Adam Wainwright, who is pitching on extra rest. St. Louis is 6-0 the past six times Wainwright has pitched on six days rest.
09-26-16	Mets -112 v. Marlins	Top	3-7	Loss	-112	17 h 39 m	Show
Given the tragic circumstances of Jose Fernandez passing away on Sunday I don't see how the Marlins can fully concentrate on baseball so fast. The Mets don't have that luxury. They are in a pennant race. They are deeply saddened by Fernandez's untimely death, but he was not their teammate and meant nothing to their organization while he was a key figure in Miam's franchise. This game is in Miami so it's going to be even more difficult for the Marlins to focus. I like the Mets to win here no matter what the pitching matchup is, but the scheduled pitchers make the odds even greater for a New York victory. Youngster Adam Conley is slated to go for the Marlins. He has close to a 4.00 ERA and control problems with a 1.41 WHIP. He hasn't started since Aug. 13 due to a finger injury on his pitching hand. He's likely to be on a pitch count bringing the Marlins' vulnerable middle relief in to play. The Mets are going with 43-year-old pro Bartolo Colon, who has the experience and savvy to get through what is sure to be a highly emotional evening. Colon has been pitching brilliantly during the last two months with a 2.61 ERA in August and 1.75 ERA so far this month.
09-25-16	Reds v. Brewers -125		4-2	Loss	-125	2 h 24 m	Show
The Brewers are playing their final home game of the season so motivation shouldn't be lacking. Milwaukee is 13-9 this month and going with Wily Peralta, who has pitched much better after a stint in the minors. He has a 26-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last four starts. The Reds are going with Brandon Finnegan, who has hit the wall lasting just 2 1/3 innings during his last start. The Reds plan on shutting down Finnegan after this start. Finnegan, who has thrown 167 innings this season, has struggled versus the Brewers with a 4.15 ERA. He had never pitched more than 25 innings in the majors before this season.
09-21-16	Diamondbacks -120 v. Padres	Top	3-2	Win	100	11 h 31 m	Show
Zack Greinke is having a down season especially compared to the monster year he had in 2015. But the prideful Greinke should win here against a foe he has dominated. Greinke pitches better away from Chase Field, too. Arizona is 9-3 in Greinke's 12 road starts. One of those losses was the last time Greinke faced the Padres. That was last month. Greinke left after seven innings leading, 4-2. Greinke is 7-1 against San Diego in 15 starts with a 1.96 ERA. The Padres are batting .189 against him. Padres starter Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 pick forced to stay in the majors or the Padres would lose him, has been very consistently lately. He has a high upside, but is inconsistent and has a 5.68 ERA on the season in 18 starts. The Diamondbacks are trying to avoid an embarrassing sweep especially since the Padres have now passed them in the standings. San Diego is 7-19 following a victory and three games under .500 at home.
09-20-16	Diamondbacks -114 v. Padres	Top	2-5	Loss	-114	15 h 4 m	Show
This isn't exactly a marquee matchup. But the price is right to get involved with the Diamondbacks. There's a reason the oddsmaker opened Arizona a road favorite. Archie Bradley has a high ceiling and has been pitching better. I much prefer him over Paul Clemens. This is what Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale was quoted as saying about Bradley, a right-hander: "Archie has had his best stuff the last couple of times out. Mechanically, he is much better. His fastball velocity has been up, his breaking ball has been good and his changeup has been working for him." The Padres have lost 13 of the past 19 times they've faced a righty starter. Clemens is 2-5 with a 4.84 ERA in 13 appearances for the Padres. He's made nine starts, never going more than 5 1/3 innings. He is not a high innings pitcher and the Padres carry a high bullpen fatigue rating. San Diego also is minus one of its better players as infielder Yangervis Solarte is away from the team following his wife's death from cancer this past weekend.
09-20-16	Blue Jays v. Mariners +114		10-2	Loss	-100	14 h 53 m	Show
Seattle is in near must-win territory here at home trailing by three games for a wild-card berth. I see value to the Mariners opening as underdogs with Hisahi Iwakuma pitching. Iwakuma had a solid first four months before an August slump. He's back on track now allowing three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Seattle is 8-2 in his last 10 starts at Safeco Park and 15-7 in his last 22 overall starts. Iwakuma is 4-1 career-wise versus Toronto with a 2.50 ERA. The Mariners have won 13 of 16 times as a home 'dog this season. Toronto is favored because J.A. Happ is on the mound. He's having a career-year, but regression is due. He's also 0-2 in his starts at Seattle. Current Mariners are batting .330 against Happ.
09-18-16	Marlins -106 v. Phillies		5-4	Win	100	3 h 32 m	Show
The Marlins have motivation not just to stay in the wild-card race, but avoid an embarrassing sweep against the Phillies. The Marlins also have a pitching matchup here that should be priced higher. Veteran Andrew Casher knows how to pitch against the Phillies going 3-1 with a 2.11 ERA in 11 games versus them during his career. The Phillies are pitching a prospect who I don't believe is ready to be in a big league rotation, Alec Asher. His numbers are good in the majors this season - unlike last year -, but his metics say otherwise. He's been extremely lucky so far - and I think that catches up to him here. Going back to last season, the Phillies are 2-7 in Asher's last nine starts.
09-18-16	Twins +125 v. Mets		2-3	Loss	-100	2 h 36 m	Show
The Twins are trying to avoid losing 100 games in a season. That hasn't happened to them since 1982. Their starting pitching today, Kyle Gibson, pitches better away from Target Center where he is 5-2 on the season. But the major handicap to this play is a fade on the Mets. Jacob deGrom is the latest Mets star pitcher to go down. That puts unheralded Gabriel Ynoa into the starting rotation today. He has a 15.19 ERA in six relief appearances, which got him send down. He last pitched on Aug. 27 for Triple-A Las Vegas going two innings. He isn't going to be around long and the Mets have some bullpen fatigue issues. The Mets also have four reserve players in their starting lineup.
09-17-16	Brewers +189 v. Cubs		11-3	Win	189	3 h 49 m	Show
The value is excellent here for the Brewers. Jake Arrieta hasn't had the season he had last year. He has just two quality starts in his last six outings. Zach Davies has been solid for the Brewers. He's working on a string of four quality starts in a row. The Cubs are in a major letdown mode. The Brewers have their best lineup going today, while the Cubs are starting five reserve players.
09-16-16	Blue Jays -136 v. Angels		5-0	Win	100	10 h 55 m	Show
R.A. Dickey isn't having a good season. But Jered Weaver is having a worst year. So are the Angels. The Angels are 1-7 in their last eight games, losers of four in a row. They have fallen into last place in the AL West, a team likely headed for an embarrassing 90 losses. Weaver would be better off pitching on extra rest. The Angels are 3-9 during his past 12 starts when he's gone on four day's rest. But the Angels don't have that luxury. They've lost all their quality starting pitchers to injuries. It's amazing that Weaver is last man standing. Weaver has surrendered a career-worst 35 homers on the season, including 12 during his last seven starts. Toronto ranks No. 3 in the majors in homers. Dickey is a knuckleballer. He's at his best in night games and when the weather is good. That's the case here. The 41-year-old also should be feeling fit since he last pitched 11 days ago. The Blue Jays are trying to chase down a wild-card berth. They can't afford to lose to the lowly Angels especially with a road series against the Mariners following this series.
09-14-16	Brewers -114 v. Reds		7-0	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
Junior Guerra is Milwaukee's best starter. Tim Adleman may be Cincinnati's worst starter. The two meet today and the price is right to back the Brewers. The Brewers are 8-2 the past 10 times Guerra has pitched on the road. Opponents are batting .216 against Guerra. The Reds are likely to be without two starters - outfielder Billy Hamilton and shortstop Zack Cosart. Hamilton leads the majors in steals. Adleman is lucky to be in a big league rotation. The Reds have endured lots of injuries to their starting pitchers so Adleman has had an opportunity. The Reds are 2-5 in his last seven starts. Adleman has been plagued by giving up home runs - 10 in 46 1/3 innings - and he's pitching in one of the best homer parks in baseball, Great American Ball Park. The Brewers lead the majors in steals and have power with Chris Carter, who ranks third in the National League in homers, Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana.
09-14-16	A's v. Royals -143	Top	8-0	Loss	-143	11 h 40 m	Show
The Royals desperately need this game. Look for Yordano Ventura to help the Royals get it done against an A's squad that has dropped 14 of their past 20 away contests. The Royals are 15 games above .500 at home on the season while the A's are 11 game below .500 on the road. Oakland has been using a lot of young pitchers as it plays out the string. Sean Manaea is one of these youngsters. He's been out since Aug. 29 with back trouble and his pitch count will be limited. Manaea came up in the the Kansas City organization so the Royals should have a good scouting report. Oakland is 1-7 in Manae's road starts. In those eight road outings, Manaea is 0-6 with a 6.44 ERA. Batters are hitting .302 off him. Ventura is at his best when pitching at Kauffman Stadium. He's 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA there since the All-Star break. The Royals are 26-10 in Ventura's last 36 home starts.
09-13-16	Pirates -138 v. Phillies	Top	5-3	Win	100	9 h 17 m	Show
The Phillies are in a full blown youth movement during these final weeks of the regular season while the Pirates are in must-win mode chasing what has now become a long shot playoff berth. They certainly can not take a loss here. That shouldn't happen with a pitching matchup of Ivan Nova versus Alec Asher. Nova has been the Pirates most consistent pitcher since coming from the Yankees. He's 5-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven starts with Pittsburgh. Asher went 0-6 with a 9.31 ERA in seven starts for the Phillies last season. Then he served an 80-game suspension for the use of performance-enhancing drugs. Now he's resurfaced in the midst of the Phillies' rebuilding efforts to make his second start of the season. Asher made his 2016 major league debut against the Nationals on the road this past Thursday. He went six innings and didn't allow a run giving up just two hits and one walk. Because of that performance this line is relatively cheap. But a look inside Asher's performance against the Nationals shows just how lucky and out of whack it was. Asher allowed 80 percent more fly-ball outs than ground-ball outs and didn't strike out a batter. This was the most misleading pitching line perhaps of the season and the fade is on against Asher in this game especially against a hot Nova and desperate Pirates team.
09-12-16	Rangers v. Astros OVER 9		4-3	Loss	-105	10 h 37 m	Show
Martin Perez can't pitch on the road, and 32-year-old Doug Fister is out of gas. So I'm expecting double-digit runs to be scored at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park tonight. These are two solid offenses, too. The Rangers rank seventh in runs scored while the Astros are 12th. Perez is 2-8 with a 6.00 ERA in 14 road starts this season. He has a 4.85 ERA in two starts versus the Astros this season. Fister has a 10.95 ERA in his last three starts giving up 26 hits and five walks in just 12 1/3 innings during this span with only three strikeouts. The right-hander has a 5.18 ERA in 14 career outings against the Rangers, including posting a 4.57 ERA in four starts versus Texas this season. The over has cashed in eight of the Rangers' last nine games versus a righty starter.
09-09-16	Dodgers v. Marlins OVER 6.5	Top	1-4	Loss	-100	18 h 50 m	Show
On paper a pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus Jose Fernandez justifies this low total. But the reality of these two meeting here is much different. Kershaw hasn't pitched since June 26 due to a back injury. He's sure to be on a pitch count. He also could be very rusty and pitching tentatively given his back woes. "We're still working the kinks out," Kershaw was quoted as saying about this start. Kershaw gave up a season-high five runs when he faced the Marlins back in April. The Marlins have their power back with Marcell Ozuna and Justin Bour returning to the lineup and Giancarlo Stanton able to pinch-hit and possibly play in the field. Fernandez is approaching his career-high in innings pitched possibly exceeding it in his next start. The work load is getting to Fernandez, who is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA during his last seven starts. During this span he's surrendered 48 hits in 39 2/3 innings. The Dodgers have been swinging hot bats averaging six runs per game during their last seven games.
09-07-16	Diamondbacks +147 v. Dodgers	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	13 h 45 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are better on the road than at home. They have a very potent lineup with A.J. Pollock back joining Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Jean Segura and Yasmany Tomas. I expect this lineup to tee off on rookie Brock Stewart, making just his fourth big-league start. Stewart is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA. So I'll take what I consider to be a generous 'dog price backed by the superior starting pitcher, Robbie Ray. Only four pitchers have more strikeouts in the National League than Ray this season. Ray also has a 1.95 lifetime ERA versus the Dodgers in six starts.
09-07-16	Tigers v. White Sox -117		4-7	Win	100	7 h 32 m	Show
The price is right to back the home favorite White Sox in a lopsided pitching matchup of Anibal Sanchez versus Jose Quintana. Sanchez isn't long to stay in Detroit's starting rotation as Jordan Zimmerman has returned from the DL. Sanchez is 7-13 with a 5.70 ERA. He's done his worst on the road, away from pitcher-friendly Comerica Park with a 3-7 mark and 7.11 ERA. Detroit is 2-9 in Sanchez's road starts. Sanchez isn't in good form - 17 earned runs in his last six starts spanning 36 2/3 innings - and has a 4.96 lifetime ERA in 12 games against the White Sox. Quintana has the second-lowest ERA in the American League. Quintana is coming off a rare bad start. I want him here on the rebound. The Tigers aren't likely to have Ian Kinsler, who has an injured ring finger and isn't expected back into the lineup until Friday.
09-06-16	Red Sox -163 v. Padres	Top	5-1	Win	100	11 h 6 m	Show
This is an important start for Clay Bucholz making his return to Boston's starting rotation. He's in a great pitcher's park and has shown he's past his early-season problems. Buchholz has a 2.35 ERA during his past 15 1/3 innings. He's allowed just two runs during his last two starts. Another key here is that Buchholz is fresh, which is rare and important for a starting pitcher this late into the season. He has thrown just one inning since last Tuesday and three innings since Aug. 24. The Padres are 10 games under .500 since the All-Star break and in full rebuild mode. One of their major weaknesses is the bottom of the rotation where Paul Clemens is going to make his eighth start for them. Clemens is 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA. He is averaging 4 1/3 innings per start. Clemens is bad and so is the Padres' bullpen. The Red Sox are No. 1 in the league in runs and batting average. They also have won 15 of their last 21 interleague games.
09-05-16	Braves v. Nationals -1.5	Top	4-6	Win	100	7 h 42 m	Show
The Nationals return home where they have beaten the Braves 21 of the past 26 times. This game certainly doesn't figure to be close with unheralded converted reliever Ryan Weber making his first start of the season due to Matt Wisler being out. Half of the handicap is fading second-year man Weber, who was 0-3 in five starts last season and has a 5.24 ERA this year. The longest he's pitched this season is 3 2/3 innings. That was back in April. The other half of the handicap is playing on Nationals ace Max Scherzer, who is having another superb season and is in excellent form allowing a combined two runs on five hits in his last two starts spanning 16 innings with a 21-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Scherzer has given up fewer than three earned runs during each of his last seven home starts. The Nationals have dominated the Braves this year winning 11 of 13 times.
09-04-16	Red Sox v. A's +133		0-1	Win	133	13 h 31 m	Show
If it weren't for Minnesota, Oakland would have the worst record in the American League. Here's the thing, though, about this game: Kendall Graveman is going for the A's against Eduardo Rodriguez. Graveman is Oakland's best pitcher and is throwing extremely well with a 2-1 record and 1.59 ERA in his last three games. He's been consistent in his last 17 starts with a 3.36 ERA. Graveman is going to keep the A's in this game. Eduardo Rodriguez is the weak link in Boston's starting rotation. The second-year player has a 5.14 ERA in seven road starts this season. He hasn't won in his last seven starts. Rodriguez also hasn't pitched since Aug. 28 when he surrendered five runs in 5 1/3 innings against Kansas City. The A's have been embarrassed during the first two games of this series being outscored 27-4. The A's should be motivated to avoid the sweep behind their best pitcher. Their best relief pitchers are rested.
08-31-16	Yankees v. Royals -116	Top	5-4	Loss	-116	12 h 2 m	Show
Quietly, below the radar, Ian Kennedy has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball with a 1.14 ERA in his last six starts. Not once during this span has Kennedy given up more than two runs. The Royals have won 80 percent of the time when favored at home going 24-6. No team can match that. Kansas City also has had the best bullpen during the last two weeks with a 0.90 ERA. The Yankees, by contrast, have had the worst bullpen during this time frame with a 5.93 ERA. This isn't shocking since the Yankees dealt away Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. The proud defending world champion Royals are digging hard for a playoff spot. The Yankees have signaled their intentions to rebuild. They are playing lots of youngsters and one of them, Luis Cessa, makes his third big league start here. Cessa has a 4.11 ERA. He's surrendered seven homers in less than 31 innings. Kansas City is 7-0 the past seven times when playing in the third game of a series. The price is right to back the Royals in big fashion.
08-30-16	A's +155 v. Astros	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	18 h 49 m	Show
Anytime I can get the superior starting pitcher at a hefty 'dog price, I'm interested. That's the case in this matchup where a hot Kendall Graveman takes on Collin McHugh. Graveman is Oakland's Sonny Gray this year. The A's are 11-3 in Graveman's last 14 starts. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in his last four starts. Houston has lost the past six times it has faced a right-handed starter. The Astros lost twice to Graveman last month. Graveman held Houston to four earned runs in 15 innings during those two outings. Oakland has been playing well winning four of its last six while the Astros have dropped eight of their last 11 home games. McHugh isn't pitching well either with an 8.10 ERA in his last three starts. He's failed to last more than 5 1/3 innings in any of his past three starts.
08-29-16	Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11	Top	1-8	Win	100	10 h 19 m	Show
There are a lot of key factors that pass inspection here setting up a strong under play on this large total. Let's start with Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda, who is one of the more consistent pitchers and is in good form with a 5-0 record in his last six starts holding foes to a .226 average during this span with a 30-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Maeda has a strong history versus Colorado, too, with a 1.45 ERA in 18 2/3 innings and 22 strikeouts and two walks. Maeda is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts at Colorado. His strikeout-to-walk ratio at Coors is 13-to-1. Good control and getting strikeouts are especially magnified when pitching at Coors. Maeda has excellent control and Colorado starter Jon Gray is a big strikeout pitcher. He has the highest ceiling of any Colorado starter. Gray has battled inconsistency - common for a young strikeout pitcher - but is coming off a well-pitched game. He allowed two runs on four hits with 10 strikeouts against the Brewers during his last start this past Tuesday. These two teams have a history of going under the total, too, with eight of the last nine meetings falling below the total. Weather shouldn't factor with the forecast calling for a slight wind blowing in.
08-27-16	Indians -125 v. Rangers	Top	0-7	Loss	-125	10 h 50 m	Show
The short road price on the Indians fails to recognize what a lopsided pitching matchup this is. Carlos Carrasco is back in top form. He's 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA in his last three starts with a 28-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Carrasco has been tough on the road, too, with a 6-3 record and 1.74 ERA. Cleveland has won during 19 of Carrasco's past 26 road starts. The flip side is how poorly Texas starter A.J. Griffin is pitching with a 6.69 ERA during his past eight starts. Griffin rarely goes deep into games and Texas is very vulnerable in middle relief. Their bullpen also is missing suspended setup-man Jeremy Jeffress.
08-25-16	Angels v. Blue Jays -1.5	Top	6-3	Loss	-129	12 h 54 m	Show
Jered Weaver and J.A. Happ are both 33. But that's where the similarity ends.No pitcher has more wins than Happ, who is 17-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Happ has turned his career around to where he's a serious Cy Young candidate. Weaver, on the other hand, has lost his fastball and is on a continuing decline. Weaver has a 5.47 ERA. The Angels are 6-14 in his last 20 road starts. The Angels have lost 14 times when Weaver has started - all by more than one run. The Angels did win on Wednesday. But they are playing the string out losers of 15 of their last 19. The Blue Jays are in a pennant race and draw the Angels here in a get away game where the Angels have to cross the border following the game. Toronto is 21-5 in Happ's last 26 starts, including winning the past seven times he's faced a sub .500 opponent.
08-25-16	Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5	Top	1-2	Loss	-105	13 h 37 m	Show
Granted, Jake Odorizzi has been brilliant since the All-Star break going 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA. But the Red Sox-Rays still can't have a total this low. Drew Pomeranz has found it much tougher in the American League with a 4.23 ERA in seven starts since coming from the Padres and Odorizzi can't keep up this pace. Both teams have been swinging well and both teams have bullpen fatigue issues following yesterday's 11-inning game. Boston has the No. 1 offense in baseball. The Red Sox are averaging more than six runs during their past 13 games. The Rays are averaging 6.2 runs during their past 10 games. The over has cashed in nine of the Rays' last 11 home games.
08-24-16	Orioles v. Nationals -153	Top	10-8	Loss	-153	11 h 30 m	Show
The Beltway Series resume today in Washington after the Nationals lost to the Orioles the past two days in Baltimore. The combination of returning home and the pitching matchup - a mismatch that should be reflected with a higher lay price - should ensure a Nationals victory. Washington is 36-23 at home. The Nationals will be fired-up returning to Nationals Park especially after playing so sloppy last night. The Orioles are an under .500 team when Chris Tillman isn't pitching. And the injured Tillman won't be pitching here. It's going to be southpaw Wade Miley, which is very bad news for Baltimore. Miley is a journeyman. Baltimore is his latest stop - and it hasn't been pretty. Miley has made four starts for the Orioles and is 0-2 with a 9.94 ERA. He couldn't hold a 5-1 first inning lead in his last start this past Friday against the Astros allowing six runs on six hits in 1 2/3 innings. The Nationals are 16-11 versus lefties. They caught Miley last season when he was pitching for Boston. The Nationals got to Miley for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings. Washington starter Tanner Roark could be a No. 1 pitcher for a bunch of teams. He's highly underrated pitching for the Nationals. Roark has a 2.87 ERA and hasn't lost in more than a month.

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