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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-20-19	Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 11	Top	9-10	Loss	-112	19 h 52 m	Show
Step to the head of the class if you knew that Mike Minor had the lowest ERA of any lefty starter in the American League. Minor has allowed only five runs in his last four starts and has a 2.61 ERA on the season. He goes deep into games, too, having pitched at least seven innings in five of his last eight starts. The Under has cashed in 10 of Minor's past 13 home starts. The Rangers' vulnerable bullpen could get a boost if Shawn Kelley, their most consistent reliever and recently appointed closer, is activated from the injured list. Kelley has been out after having a pair of lymph nodes surgically removed. He threw a simulated game Sunday. This total is high because Mike Leake is going for Seattle and Globe Life Park is an outstanding hitter's park. Leake has been pitching much better, though, with a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts. Globe Life Park becomes far more of a hitter's park during the muggy summer months. The weather forecast for tonight's game is winds gusting in at 23 mph.
05-19-19	Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-100	13 h 11 m	Show
The Diamondbacks' last three victories have been by an average of eight runs. I like Arizona to beat the Giants, enough to lay the run line to get a plus price instead of risk laying heavy juice. Drew Pomeranz is coming off the injured list to start for the Giants. Pomeranz has been highly inconsistent and isn't likely to go deep into the game, which would put the Giants' vulnerable middle relievers into action. Lefty Robbie Ray is in great form for the Diamondbacks with a 3-0 mark and 1.98 ERA in his past five starts. His ERA is 1.10 during his last three starts. Arizona is 5-2 versus the Giants in Ray's past seven starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 5-9 versus lefty starters this season. Word is the Giants will be resting Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. Brandon Crawford may also sit out. San Francisco has won just 33 percent of its past 43 road games.
05-18-19	Giants -106 v. Diamondbacks		8-5	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are pitching Zack today. The wrong Zach. It's Zack Godley getting the start not Zack Greinke. That puts me in action with this matchup because Madison Bumgarner goes for San Francisco with a price that is right to back the superior pitcher. The Giants are 9-2 the past 11 times Bumgarner has faced Arizona at Chase Field. The Giants lost a rough 7-0 game to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Bruce Bochy was tossed during the game. So the Giants won't be mailing this one in. They are 6-2 the past eight times following a loss. Bumgarner is in solid form with a 3.50 ERA and a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Bumgarner has a lifetime 2.43 ERA against the Diamondbacks spanning 33 outings, including 32 starts. He has a 2.81 career ERA at Chase Field. Injuries have forced Godley into Arizona's starting rotation - at least for this game. He is struggling with a 7.65 ERA in 10 games, including seven starts. Arizona is 1-6 in Godley's last seven home starts. Godley has a 6.68 career ERA versus the Giants in eight appearances, including six starts.
05-17-19	Blue Jays +100 v. White Sox		10-2	Win	100	17 h 20 m	Show
I'm not a fan of Ivan Nova especially when he's favored against a better pitcher. That's the case in today's Blue Jays-White Sox game in a starting pitching matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus Nova. Nova is in better current form than Sanchez, but that's not enough to convince me. Sanchez has a 3.75 ERA. The righthander was very good three years ago when he last was fully healthy. Sanchez has been durable this season. The White Sox are 5-13 in their last 18 home games when facing a righty starter. Nova has a 6.29 ERA. That hideous ERA is doubled at Guaranteed Rate Field - 13.50. Nova is 6-7 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 19 career appearances against the Blue Jays, including 17 starts. His lifetime ERA at Guaranteed Rate Field is 6.62. So if you think this is a fade on Nova you are 100 percent correct.
05-16-19	Rangers v. Royals OVER 10		16-1	Win	100	10 h 44 m	Show
Lance Lynn versus Homer Bailey is a great pitching matchup - if this were 2012. Those two were good back then when they were in the National League and before they had arm problems. Now they are journeymen in the American League and far from locks to remain in the starting rotation. Lynn has a 5.48 ERA. He's coming off a season-high 118-pitch count against the Astros this past Friday where he surrendered three homers. Lynn has a 5.13 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals. Bailey has a 4.83 ERA. That's actually his lowest ERA in five years. He's facing a Texas squad that leads the majors in runs scored and has scored 16 runs in its last three games. The Over is 13-5-1 in Texas' last 19 games. Both team's bullpens rank among the worst. The weather forecast is a plus for the Over, too, with wind blowing to center at 12-15 mph.
05-15-19	Angels v. Twins UNDER 9.5		7-8	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
Get away day game matchup for these two teams, which is a plus for the Under. This actually is a morning game for the Angels based on their time zone. Some regulars usually are rested in these type of situations. The Twins could be without two of their better power hitters. Mitch Garver suffered a high ankle sprain on Tuesday so he won't be in action. Nelson Cruz has missed the last two games due to a sore left wrist. Jake Odorizzi has been the hottest pitcher during his last three starts, giving up no earned runs during this span of 20 innings. The Angels are averaging three runs per game during their last three games. Angels starter Trevor Cahill looked good in his last start, an 8-3 victory against the Orioles. Cahill yielded two runs in six innings giving up four hits and no walks with five strikeouts. Both pitchers catch a break with Eric Cooper slated to be behind the plate The Under has cashed 60 percent of the time in Cooper's 86 games as home plate umpire since 2016. The Under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the two teams have met.
05-14-19	Blue Jays v. Giants OVER 7.5	Top	7-3	Win	100	20 h 51 m	Show
The Blue Jays and Giants are two of the weakest offensive teams in the majors. But this is too low of a total in a pitching matchup of Trent Thornton, who has a 5.06 ERA, against Nick Vincent, who is a long reliever and has made just one career start in the big leagues. The Giants squared off against Thornton on April and won, 7-6, scoring four runs on six hits in five innings versus Thornton. The offenses could get a slight boost, too, with the wind blowing out to left at nine mph.
05-13-19	A's v. Mariners -125	Top	5-6	Win	100	24 h 53 m	Show
Kudos to Mike Fiers on throwing a no-hitter against the Reds in his last start at home this past Tuesday. Fiers also threw a staggering 131 pitches. Fiers is a 33-year-old journeyman with a career losing record and a 5.48 ERA on the season. Prior to his last start, Fiers had a 6.81 ERA. I'm going to fade Fiers in an obvious letdown spot and with the A's taking to the road for the first time in a week. The A's can be dangerous at Oakland Coliseum. However, they are much worse on the road. Oakland is 5-13 away from home this season. The A's have lost nine of their last 10 road games. Fiers pitched against the Mariners opening day in Japan. The Mariners won, 9-7, knocking out Fiers after three innings by scoring five runs. Seattle is starting Yusei Kikuchi, who I consider to be the Mariners' best pitcher. The Mariners haven't been playing well. They just concluded a 2-8 road trip. But they are returning home now where they should be more relaxed.
05-12-19	Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5	Top	10-6	Win	100	13 h 17 m	Show
A pitching matchup of Steven Brault versus Dakota Hudson should yield at least four runs per side ensuring in an Over the total winner. Brault is making his second start of the year. He's only in the Pirates' starting rotation due to injuries to Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon. The lefty has giving up 10 runs in 12 2/3 innings resulting in a 7.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Over is 12-3-1 the past 16 times the Cardinals have faced a lefty starter at home. Hudson is on the verge of losing his spot in the Cardinals' rotation with a 4.63 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. The Pirates' offense is much better with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco both back healthy.
05-11-19	Phillies -132 v. Royals	Top	7-0	Win	100	17 h 57 m	Show
It hasn't been Aaron Nola nor Jake Arrieta. No, the Phillies' best starting pitchers have been Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff. Eflin is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.90 ratio during his last three starts. Eflin gets the start here against Brad Keller. It's a testament on how bad the Royals are that Keller is their best picher and Kansas City is 2-5 in his last seven starts. Keller is not in good form either going 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 ratio in his past three starts. The Phillies rank seventh in runs scored. The Royals are 16th in runs. Philadelphia has the superior bullpen. The Royals upset the Phillies in Game 1 of this series Friday. I want the Phillies going for me in this revenge spot.
05-11-19	Marlins +272 v. Mets		1-4	Loss	-100	17 h 51 m	Show
Jacob deGrom looks back in dominant form. Even if that is true, I'll throw a peanut out there on the Marlins at this tremendous plus price. The Mets are a below .500 team with a below average offense. They also don't usually win for deGrom at home losing 18 of his past 24 outings at Citi Field. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara is striving for consistency. He is capable of throwing a gem, though. The Marlins have enjoyed surprising good success against deGrom winning seven of the last nine times deGrom has started against them.
05-10-19	Phillies -146 v. Royals		1-5	Loss	-146	11 h 0 m	Show
Sometimes there is value backing a favorite. That's the case here. The Phillies are actually helped playing this opponent on the road because they have better DH options. Philadelphia came on last season and the Phillies are No. 1 in the NL East this season. Kansas City has the second-worst record in baseball. The Royals can't match the Phillies' power and are pitching Homer Bailey against Jake Arrieta. Bailey is as terrible as ever with a 5.25 ERA. The last time he had an ERA of less than 6.00 was 2014. Once in a while he throws a gem. Otherwise it remains a mystery how he can still be in a big league starting rotation. Bailey is backed by a bottom-five bullpen. The Phillies have scored five or more runs in seven of its last 10 games. Arrieta is having another solid season. The Phillies have allowed only eight runs in their last four games.
05-10-19	Yankees v. Rays OVER 7	Top	4-3	Push	0	17 h 19 m	Show
Domingo German and Tyler Glasnow are two huge success stories so far this season. Both have six victories. German has a 2.35 ERA while Glasnow could legitimately lay claim to being the best pitcher in the American League to this point with a 1.47 ERA. He hasn't given up more than two runs during any of his seven starts. So the oddsmaker certainly is justified setting such a low total for an American League game. The Yankees are a strong road Over team. The Rays have gone above the total in eight of their last 11 home games. I can see one of these two pitchers not holding up his considerable end, which would collapse an Under play due to the total being set so low. New York has gone Over in 20 of its last 27 road contests. The Yankees have a top-10 offense. They have produced four or more runs in 19 of their last 26 games. The Rays just scored 20 runs during their three-game home series against the Diamondbacks. They are expected to get back Austin Meadows, who is hitting .351 with six homers and 19 RBI's in 20 games. Meadows has missed nearly three weeks due to a thumb injury. German has a shaky history versus the Rays having posted a 7.36 ERA against them in three appearances last season, two of which came as a starter.
05-09-19	Rangers +1.5 v. Astros		2-4	Loss	-132	18 h 45 m	Show
The Rangers have hung in so far this season posting a 17-17 record. They have a solid starting pitching edge in this matchup with Mike Minor going against Wade Miley. Minor has a 2.40 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are batting .190 against him. Minor has been hot since the middle of last season posting a 2.97 ERA following the All-Star Game holding foes to a .194 batting average. Minor faced the Astros early last month and dominated them winning, 4-0, at home. Minor allowed just five hits in seven innings. Miley is a journeyman type who has pitched decent this season, but is not the caliber of Minor. Miley has a bad history against the Rangers with a 2-5 career-mark and 5.86 ERA in nine starts.
05-08-19	Reds v. A's -119		4-5	Win	100	19 h 52 m	Show
The Reds experienced real cultural shock going from homer friendly Great American Ball Park to the spacious confines and weird pitcher-friendly configuration of Oakland Coliseum as they were no-hit in Game 1 of this series by Mike Fiers on Tuesday. Fiers, mind you, is not exactly Nolan Ryan. I don't see the Reds doing much against Brett Anderson either in the middle game of their three game series versus the A's, which marks Cincinnati's first visit to Oakland in six years. Anderson is a fragile lefty who is tough on bad teams when pitching in Oakland especially at night. The A's are 9-1 the past 10 times Anderson has started at home versus sub .500 teams. Anderson is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in night games this season. Oakland has won four consecutive home games. The Reds are 17-47 during their last 64 away contests. That's a winning percentage of just 27 percent. Cincinnati is starting Sonny Gray. The A's know Gray well. Gray pitched for Oakland for five seasons starting in 2013. Gray hasn't been good since 2015 and is not in good form entering this matchup with a 5.28 ERA in his last three starts. Matt Olson is back from the injured list for Oakland. He slammed 29 homers and drove in 84 RBI's last year for the A's. There's a good chance Kris Davis is able to play, too, for Oakland. He has been out since Sunday and was close to playing last night, but was scratched at the last minute. Davis, Olson and Matt Chapman are the A's top power hitters.
05-07-19	Rangers v. Pirates OVER 8.5	Top	4-5	Win	100	17 h 42 m	Show
It might surprise you to know that Texas has scored the most runs per game in the Majors this season. If you discount a recent 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays, the Rangers are averaging 9.3 runs in their last six games. The Over is 8-2-1 in the Rangers' past 11 games. It's not hard to envision the Rangers and Pirates producting at least four runs apiece in a pitching matchup of Steven Brault versus Adrian Sampson. The two teams played two games against one another last week and the scores were 6-4 and 7-5. The Pirates got a look at Sampson for 5 2/3 innings last week. So they'll have a book on him. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Pittsburgh offense is much more respectable with Starling Marte back in the lineup. If you take away a 14-1 loss to the A's, the Pirates are averaging six runs during their last five games. The Rangers should be able to tee off on Brault, who carries an 8.31 ERA and is only drawing a start because Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer are each hurt. The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out to right. That's good news for left-handed power hitter Joey Gallo, who is tied for the American League in homers with 11.
05-06-19	Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8	Top	3-5	Push	0	12 h 37 m	Show
Max Scherzer is the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball. He faces a Brewers lineup that will be missing perhaps their second-best hitter, Lorenzo Cain, who was hurt on Sunday and won't be in the starting lineup. Jhoulys Chacin is the Brewers' top starter. He's a huge underrated Under pitcher with the low side cashing in 16 of his last 21 starts. The Brewers will have a rested Josh Hader to pitch possibly two innings out of the bullepn. The Nationals' offense is way down due to multiple injuries. Out are Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, Trea Turner and Matt Adams. Only once in their last six games have the Nationals scored more than three runs. The Under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the teams have met in Milwaukee.
05-05-19	Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 8.5	Top	1-7	Win	100	12 h 49 m	Show
The Phillies have gone from being an Over team early in the season to an Under team. The Under is 11-4-1 in Philadelphia's last 16 games. Phillies starter Zach Eflin is in good form, too, with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. Elfin has a 1.12 ERA at home this season. The wind also is blowing in at 12 mph. But the biggest reason why I like the Under is Washington's injury situation. The Nationals are witout four of their best players - Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto and Ryan Zimmerman - and likely will be minus Matt Adams and Michael Taylor. Adams and Taylor were injured on Saturday. The Phillies could be resting some of their starters this being a Sunday day game following a wild 10-8 loss to the Nationals on Saturday night. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Nationals. He has seen better days, but the Under has cashed in four of his last five starts. The Nationals' bullpen should be fine - if they don't use Joe Ross.
05-03-19	A's v. Pirates -110	Top	14-1	Loss	-110	18 h 8 m	Show
The timing, pitching matchup and price all line up heavily for Pittsburgh here. The Pirates come home bolstered by a two-game road sweep of the Rangers. They catch the A's playing their worst ball, losers of six in a row all on the road having been swept by the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Oakland is giving up 6.2 runs during this losing skid and has lost five of the games by multiple runs. The A's can be dangerous at home, but are not nearly as good on the road where they have lost the past seven times. Oakland is 1-8 in Brett Anderson's last nine road starts. Anderson has failed to complete five innings during his last two starts. He gave up six runs on 10 hits and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings against the Blue Jays during his last start this past Saturday. The A's rely on the power of Khris Davis. However, Davis has gone homerless in his last 15 games. Davis is going to play the outfield, too, because there is no DH in National League parks. Davis is a well below average on defense. Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove has the third-lowest ERA in the majors at 1.54 through five starts and one relief appearance. Musgrove pitched for the Astros before coming to the Pirates. He is 1-1 with a 1.33 ERA in seven appearances against the A's, including three starts. A big non-pitching key for the Pirates is the return from injury of star outfielder Starling Marter. Pittsburgh was 1-9 without him. The Pirates are 13-5 with Marte in the lineup.
05-02-19	Rockies v. Brewers UNDER 9	Top	11-6	Loss	-125	12 h 55 m	Show
Don't expect to see Wednesday's offensive fireworks when the Rockies beat the Brewers, 11-4. The starting pitching matchup is much different today. It's also a get away day game, which often is a plus for an Under due to lack of player concentration and the possibility of a starter or two getting rested. The best reliever on each team also didn't pitch on Wednesday. So Wade Davis and Josh Hader, who has the stamina to go multiple innings, have no fatigue issues. Colorado starter Jon Gray usually pitches much better away from Coors Field. Gray has a 2.13 day ERA this season, too. Gray didn't pitch well in his last start against the Braves. However, in his previous three starts - two of which came on the road - he surrendered just a combined two earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. The Rockies have been a solid Under team on the road with the Under going 24-10-3 (71 percent) the past 37 times. Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta made his big league debut against the Rockies at Coors Field last year and was fantastic striking out 13 Rockies in 5 2/3 innings. Peralta has shown to be much more effective pitching at home during his brief major league career. He was 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA at Miller Park last season with 40 strikeouts in 33 innings.
05-01-19	Yankees v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5	Top	2-3	Win	100	6 h 4 m	Show
First off, the roof is going to be closed at Chase Field for this game. That's a big plus for the Under. Second, the Yankees are pitching Masahiro Tanaka, who is pitching well this season yielding one earned run in four of his six starts. Arizona is averaging three runs during its last three games. The Yankees have their top arms in their bullpen available. Arizona is pitching Merrill Kelly, who has been up and down. But he has a 3.09 ERA in the day and this is an afternoon game. Kelly gets to go against a depleted Yankee lineup missing Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar and now likley DJ LeMahieu. The Yankees have never faced Kelly, which gives Kelly an edge. Likewise, the Diamondbacks haven't ever gone up against Tanaka.
04-29-19	Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7.5	Top	2-3	Loss	-113	21 h 45 m	Show
Put Kenta Maeda among the more disappointing April pitchers this season. Maeda never has been particularly strong away from Dodger Stadium, but he's off to a brutal start this year with a 5.20 ERA. Maeda has a 7.53 ERA in three road outings this season. Yes, Oracle Park is a pitcher's park. But some of this advantage is reduced by the wind blowing out at 10-11 mph. Maeda doesn't have a good history either at Oracle Park with an 8.16 ERA in six appearances. Jeff Samardzija has been a below average starter for years. He doesn't go deep into games anymore, which bares open the Giants' vulnerable middle relief. The Dodgers have hit the third-most homers in the majors. Samardzija is 1-4 career-wise versus the Dodgers in eight appearances (six starts) with a 4.06 ERA. The Over has cashed four of the last five times the teams have met.
04-28-19	Angels v. Royals OVER 9	Top	7-3	Win	100	6 h 39 m	Show
Matt Harvey and Homer Bailey are a pair of retread National Leaguers who haven't been good for years. Bailey might throw a gem once in a while but his ERA since 2015 has been 5.56, 6.65, 6.43, 6.09 and 5.62. Harvey hasn't been anywhere the same pitcher since undergoing serious arm surgery. His ERA was 7.00 last year. This year it is 8.03. Both bullpens are below average especially the Royals. Neither team has an established closer with Cody Allen injured. The Over is 20-8-3 in the Royals' last 31 home games. Chad Whitson is slated to be the home plate umpire. Neary 60 percent of his games during the past two plus seasons have gone Over the total.
04-28-19	Padres v. Nationals -101		6-7	Win	100	5 h 44 m	Show
I don't see the Padres sweeping the Nationals at home. Washington has had its ups and downs, but has not lost four in a row all season. Padres starter Joey Lucchesi is helped by pitching at spacious Petco Park. He had a losing road record last season with a 4.24 ERA. San Diego is 1-4 in his last five road starts. Nationals starter Jeremy Hellickson had an 0.75 ERA in two starts against the Padres last season.
04-27-19	Indians v. Astros UNDER 9.5		3-4	Win	100	5 h 6 m	Show
I like both starting pitchers here and both team's have strong bullpens with elite closers. Shane Bieber is looking to come back strong after a rare bad outing. He has a 0.99 ratio and is holding batters to a .180 batting average. Brad Peacock could be a No.3 starter for many teams, but pitches for the pitching-rich Astros. He has a 1.05 WHIP and is holding opposing hitters to a .205 batting average. Both offenses are off to slow starts. The Indians rank 24th in runs and 26th in homers. Houston ranks 17th in runs.
04-26-19	Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5		4-5	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
You might be surprised to know the Mariners lead the Majors in runs scored and homers. The Mariners scored 14 runs against the Rangers Thursday and should not encouter any resistance again today facing Shelby Miller and a very bad Texas bullpen. Miller hasn't been able to come back from a serious arm injury. He has a 7.63. ERA. If that isn't hideous enough he has a 6-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Rangers should put up their share of runs as Seattle is treating this as a bullpen game. Rookie Justus Sheffiled is going to pitch 3-4 innings for the Mariners. He's a good prospect, but he's not ready for the Majors yet. Texas has an above average offense. The Rangers rank 8th in runs scored.
04-25-19	Diamondbacks +115 v. Pirates		5-0	Win	115	12 h 1 m	Show
Wrong favorite. Injuries have helped cool off the Pirates. Pittsburgh has dropped four in a row. The Pirates are without outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson among others and have been held to four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Arizona is 7-2 during its current road trip. The Diamondbacks also have owned the Pirates defeating them nine consecutive times in Pittsburgh. The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke versus Jameson Taillon. I like Taillon, but Greinke's current form and history make him the better choice. Greinke is 8-4 with a 1.03 ERA in 13 lifetime appearances against the Pirates. The Diamondbacks have won 10 of Greinke's past 14 away starts.
04-24-19	Mariners +1.5 v. Padres	Top	0-1	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
Padres rookie Chris Paddack is off to a nice start. But he is way overpriced here, enough so where I can take the Mariners plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line without having to lay monster juice. Seattle has won nine of its last 11 road games and has the much superior offense. The Mariners entered their series against the Padres ranked No. 1 in runs scored at 6.4 per game. They have scored 31 runs during their last five games. Seattle has excellent hitting depth with eight players producing at least 14 RBI's. Paddack went six innings, a career-high, in his last outing. He has thrown just 20 innings in his big league career yet is rated a huge favorite by the linesmaker here against Felix Hernandez. Sure "King Felix" is on the downside of a brilliant career, but he still knows how to pitch and he'll be helped throwing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park where he is 5-1 lifetime with a 1.63 ERA in eight starts. San Diego ranked just 27th in scoring entering the series. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games and 19-37 during their past 56 home games.
04-22-19	Phillies v. Mets UNDER 8.5	Top	1-5	Win	100	20 h 53 m	Show
Jake Arrieta isn't back to his vintage 2015 Cy Young Award season. But he is pitching very well with a 2.25 ERA while going deep into games - throwing at least seven innings during each of his past three starts. He has a 2.33 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against the Mets. New York could be minus Robinson Cano, who suffered a wristy injury on Sunday when hit by a pitch. Steven Matz should be pumped after getting buried by the Phillies in his last start. Previous to that game, though, Matz was solid in his three outings giving up five runs in 16 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts. The Mets have a rested Edwin Diaz in the bullpen. The Phillies' lineup is somewhat depleted by injuries with Jean Segura, Odubel Herrera and hot-hitting Scott Kingery all out. Citi Field is a pitcher's park and the weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing in at nine mph.
04-20-19	Blue Jays v. A's -135		10-1	Loss	-135	13 h 19 m	Show
I want the A's going for me in a bounce back spot. The Blue Jays knocked off Oakland, 5-1, Friday night. It was Toronto's first victory against the A's after losing all seven games to them last season. It also was a pitching matchup of Marcus Stroman versus Aaron Brooks, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Now the pitching matchup is righty Matt Shoemaker versus righthander Mike Fiers. Fiers is an ace when pitching in spacious Oakland Coliseum. He is 6-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his last 10 home starts. He hasn't been scored on in his last two home starts this season spanning 12 innings. Oakland is 8-1 (89 percent) in Fiers' last nine home starts. Toronto is 3-8 in its last 11 games against a righty starter.
04-20-19	Diamondbacks v. Cubs -130		6-0	Loss	-130	14 h 18 m	Show
Here comes the Cubs. Chicago has won four in a row and six of its last seven. They are worth riding playing their best ball now. The buy sign is on for Yu Darvish, too, after he fanned eight in 5 2/3 innings during his last start, a 7-2 victory against the Marlins. Arizona is averaging just 2.6 runs in its last three games. Zach Greinke isn't the elite pitcher of past seasons. Greinke is still above average - but not when he pitches at Wrigley Field. Greinke has never won at Wrigley in five career starts and has an 8.31 ERA when pitching there. The Cubs have won 30 of the past 44 times at home when facing a righty starter.
04-19-19	Giants -101 v. Pirates	Top	1-4	Loss	-101	17 h 8 m	Show
The Giants have had good success at Pittsburgh winning seven of the last nine times there. The Giants also catch the Pirates playing at home for the first time in 12 days. So Pittsburgh's concentration and focus may be off. It's not just history and spot why I like the Giants. The price is very good in a starting pitching matchup of Madison Bumgarner versus Jordan Lyles. Bumgarner looked like the elite pitcher he is during his last start, a 5-2 home victory against the Rockies this past Saturday. Bumgarner struck out seven and didn't walk a batter. He has a 2.84 career ERA in seven starts against Pittsburgh. Lyles has made two good starts for the Pirates. But that's not enough to convince me he suddenly has become more than just a fifth starter-type/long reliever. The Pirates are his fourth different team in three seasons. Lyles had a 4.11 ERA with the Padres and Brewers last year. He has a 5.85 career ERA in 19 appearances versus the Giants, including seven starts.
04-17-19	Astros v. A's UNDER 9	Top	1-2	Win	100	18 h 50 m	Show
The Astros shut down the A's hot offense on Tuesday and I see them doing it again on Wednesday behind veteran Wade Miley and an elite bullpen. Miley is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA in six career starts against Oakland. The A's have a strong bullpen, too, and are going with promising Frankie Montas, who just beat the Orioles, 10-3, this past Wednesday. Montas is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Much of the Astros' power is negated by Oakland Coliseum being such a strong pitcher's park.
04-17-19	Giants v. Nationals -129		6-9	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
Jeremy Hellickson is an underrated pitcher being on a Nationals starting rotation that features Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. Hellickson has the lowest ERA of those three at 2.25. Washington is 4-0 in Hellickson's last four home starts. The Giants are not a good road club. They've dropped 21 of their last 29 away matchups. Jeff Samardzija gets the start for San Francisco. He's coming off a rare gem, a 1-0 home win against the Rockies this past Wednesday. Samardzija hasn't proven nearly so effective on the road and against the Nationals. He is 0-6 with a 7.39 ERA in his last six starts versus Washington. San Francisco is 2-8 in Samardzija's last 10 starts. The Giants are 0-5 in his past five away starts.
04-17-19	Royals v. White Sox UNDER 9		4-3	Win	100	11 h 51 m	Show
Lucas Giolito has been a huge disappointment given his vast potential. But there is one team Giolito has been able to dominate - the Royals. He is 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA in seven career outings versus Kansas City. The Royals are batting .184 against him. Giolito no-hit the Royals for six innings during his last start against them on March 31. Royals starter Brad Keller is pitching well this season and is 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA in eight career appearances against the White Sox, including five starts. Keller is coming off a career-high 10 strikeouts in a victory against the Indians during his previous start.
04-16-19	Astros v. A's OVER 8.5		9-1	Win	100	21 h 51 m	Show
The Astros are averaging 6.1 runs in their last eight games. The A's are averaging 9.1 runs during their last five games. The Over has cashed in each of Oakland's last seven games. I don't see a pitching matchup of Collin McHugh against Marco Estrada slowing these hot offenses down. McHugh pitched well against the A's when he faced them 11 days ago. The A's should be better prepared for McHugh having just seen him such a short time ago. Khris Davis is leading the league in homers with 10. Estrada doesn't match up up well to the Astros being a flyball pitcher who misses few bats. Estrada pitched 9 2/3 innings against Houston last season when he was with Toronto. The Astros got to him for seven earned runs on 15 hits. The spacious Oakland Coliseum is a pitcher's park. But some of that is negated by the weather conditions, which call for the wind blowing out to right at 10 mph.
04-13-19	Mets v. Braves -125		7-11	Win	100	17 h 16 m	Show
I don't see the Mets winning a third straight road game against the Braves. Not with a pitching matchup of Jason Vargas versus Sean Newcomb. Vargas has a 9.00 ERA and is merely a journeyman fifth-type starter/long reliever at this stage of his career. Newcomb has star potential. He's looked good so far with a 1.64 ERA and has a 1.82 lifetime ERA versus the Mets in six starts.
04-13-19	Tigers +174 v. Twins		3-4	Loss	-100	12 h 6 m	Show
The Tigers are a surprising 8-5. Tyson Ross is coming off a well-pitched 3-1 victory against the Royals from Sunday and the Twins could be rusty having not played since Wednesday. So I'll take a shot at the underdog Tigers at this price. Michael Pineda will be making just his third start for Minnesota since the middle of the 2017 season. Pineda is working his way back into shape and he's not backed by a strong bullpen. The Tigers get back Jacoby Jones, their second-best outfielder. He had missed their first 12 games with a shoulder injury.
04-12-19	Indians v. Royals OVER 7.5		1-8	Win	100	10 h 12 m	Show
The key is weather conditions. The wind is blowing out at 10-to-15 miles per hour. Carlos Carrasco has yet to find his rhythm with a 7.71 ERA. The Royals' offense is better than perceived ranking 16th in runs. Royals starter Brad Killer is due for regression. He's backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league. The Royals are 9-1-1 to the Over in their last 11 games.
04-11-19	Rockies v. Giants +107		0-1	Win	107	11 h 38 m	Show
Both teams are off to slow starts. Both teams have always had a strong home bias/weak road bias. So at this price point, I'm going to go with value and taking the home Giants. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is an innings-eater type of starter. He catches a break as Colorado is minus three starters with Daniel Murphy, David Dahl and Ryan McMahon all out with injuries. I'm not a fan of Colorado stater Jon Gray, who hasn't lived up to being a No. 1 starter type. Gray has given up at least one homer in 14 straight games. He also has a 6.15 career ERA versus the Giants in six starts.
04-10-19	Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9		15-1	Win	100	4 h 14 m	Show
The Nationals rank seventh in runs. The Phillies are the fourth-highest scoring team in the Majors. Washington has scored at least five runs in six of its last nine games. The Nationals are going against Nick Pivetta, who is a high strikeout pticher but gives up a lot of walks and baserunners. The Phillies' bullpen has been inconsistent. The Phillies go against Jeremy Hellickson, who is a fifth-starter type, rusty and has a bad current history against the Phillies. The Nationals' bullpen has been struggling, too.
04-10-19	Rays v. White Sox UNDER 8		9-1	Loss	-100	16 h 46 m	Show
Rays starter Tyler Glasnow is showing signs of reaching his great potential. He has a 0.82 ERA in 11 innings this season. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez flashed his high ceiling during times last season. He's facing a Rays offense that has produced four or fewer runs in eight of their 12 games. Both pitchers are going to be tremendously aided by the weather conditions, which call for temperatures in the 30's and the wind blowing in at 10-to-14 miles per hour.
04-09-19	Braves v. Rockies -122		7-1	Loss	-122	11 h 25 m	Show
I see the Rockies getting back on track with a home victory. So does the oddsmaker as he has installed Colorado as a short favorite despite the Rockies' poor 3-8 record. Colorado always plays better at Coors Field. The Rockets are 24 games above .500 playing there during the previous two seasons. They have scored six runs in three of their four home games this season. The pitching matchup is Max Fried versus German Marquez. The Rockies have tremendous faith in Marquez signing him to a five-year, $43 million contract extension this past Saturday. Marquez finished 2018 strong going 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA with a 138-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Marquez has continued this excellent form giving up only one run in 13 innings this year with 14 strikeouts. He should be really pumped for this matchup being his first start since signing the big contract extension. Fried looked great against the Cubs last week, but remains unproven. Pitching at Coors is a different experience. Fried made one relief appearance at Coors last season. It did not go well. He gave up three runs, three walks and a homer in 2 2/3 innings. The Braves may be down to their third-string catcher, too. Brian McCann is on the DL and Tyler Flowers is day-to-day with a hand injury.
04-08-19	Dodgers v. Cardinals +112		3-4	Win	112	17 h 24 m	Show
Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is a very good pitcher at Dodger Stadium. He's not so good away from home, though, with a 3.58 road ERA last season compared to 1.15 at home. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Ryu's last four starts versus the Cardinals. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas went 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA at Busch Stadium last year. The Cardinals are 7-1 in Mikolas' last eight home starts and 22-7 in his lifetime starts for 76 percent. Not only does the pitching matchup favor the Cardinals, but so does the situation. The Cardinals have been home while the Dodgers had to fly in during the early morning hours after playing in the Sunday night game against the Rockies in Colorado. The game stretched out nearly four hours.
04-07-19	Padres v. Cardinals OVER 8.5		1-4	Loss	-120	10 h 10 m	Show
It's time for the Cardinals to close the book on Adam Wainwright. He hasn't been good for three years and he's not going to regain his form at 37. Wainwright's ERA the past three seasons are 4.62, 5.11 and 4.46. He was roughed up in his first start this season. Wainwright is going against lefty Matt Strahm, who also had a rough opening start this year. Neither pitcher is going to be aided by the weather conditions, which call for wind to be blowing out at 12 mph. The Padres are a much better offensive club this season and they usually hit better away from Petco Park. The Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 road games. The Cardinals have gone Over in 14 of their last 17 home games when facing a lefty starter.
04-06-19	Twins v. Phillies OVER 8		6-2	Push	0	10 h 10 m	Show
The Phillies are the No. 1 scoring team in the Majors averging 8.1 runs per game. They have scored at least eight runs in all but one of their six games. The Twins are averaging 6.2 runs during their last four games. The Over has cashed in 10 of Minnesota's past 14 road contests. A starting pitching matchup of Michael Pineda versus Jake Arrieta isn't going to cool of these hot offenses, especially in a great hitter's park and with each team lacking an estabished closer. Pineda is making just his second appearance since returning from Tommy John surgery. Prior to going four innings against the Indians last Sunday, Pineda hadn't pitched since July 5, 2017. Pineda isn't likely to pitch deep into the game even if he's on. That means the Twins' shaky bullpen has to pitch multiple innings. Arrieta is 33 and has been slipping the past couple of seasons. He's gone from an ace to a third-to-fourth type rotation starter.
04-05-19	Twins v. Phillies OVER 8		4-10	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
The Twins have gotten their bats going averaging seven runs per game during their last three games. Phillies starter Nick Pivetta is a great strikeout pitcher, but gives up a lot of runs. The Over has cashed the past four times he has started. The Phillies are No. 2 in the Majors in runs scored averaging 7.8 per game. They have scored eight or more runs in four of their five games. Twins starter Jake Odorizzi is up-and-down. He's coming off a good performance, but rarely is consistent. He had a 4.49 ERA with the Twins last season. The Over has cashed in nine of the Twins' last 13 road games. Friday Free Play Brewers minus $1.22 hosting Cubs Maybe the well runs dry here. But the Cubs are real fade material right now. One week into the baseball season, the Cubs are a disaster. It's not just their 1-5 record, but how they are losing games and the mindset of the team. The Cubs are pressing. Their defense has been terrbile. They've given up the second-most runs per game and their bullpen is one of the worst in baseball already blowing three saves. Chicago has the second-highest payroll in the league yet can't come up with a legitimate leadoff hitter. Ever since he nearly blew the World Series three seasons ago with his horriffic overmanaging, I've been off the Joe Maddon bandwagon. Now it's time to think about a new manager. The Cubs are soft. They best would be served by a firmer hand. Milwaukee is showing last season wasn't a fluke. The Brewers have the best record in the National League at 6-1. The Brewers have won 67 percent of their past 83 home games. The pitching matchup is southpaw Jose Quintana versus Brandon Woodruff. Quintana has been a major disappointment the past couple of years going from underrated with the White Sox to overrated with the Cubs. He does, though, have a strong history against the Brewers with a 6-2 record and 1.62 ERA in 11 caeer starts against them. That record, though, is reflected in the line. The Brewers are 6-1 the past seven times they have faced a lefty starter at home. Quintana's routine may be off, too. He hasn't made a start this season having pitched four innings of long relief against the Rangers this past Saturday. I prefer Woodruff and a superior Brewers bullpen that has a devastating multi-inning reliever in Josh Hader. He is unscored upon and has 10 strikeouts in five innings while posting four saves already. Hader had a mind-boggling 143 strikeouts in 81 1/3 innings last year with a 2.43 ERA. The Brewers are rested having been idle Thursday. Their main rivalry is with the Cubs. They have defeated the Cubs eight the past 11 times, including going 4-1 the past five times at home. Christian Yelich gives the Brewers the best all-around everyday player on the field. Unlike the Cubs, everything is good with the Brewers right now. Maybe the Cubs finally show life. Until then, though, I'll go against them if the price is right.
04-04-19	Reds v. Pirates OVER 7.5		0-2	Loss	-110	8 h 9 m	Show
A pair of fifth starter-types go here making this total too low. Reds pitcher Tyler Mahle had a 4.98 ERA last season. He is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates, who are swinging hot bats. Pittsburgh has scored 17 runs in its last four games. The Reds are not in a good offensive groove, but they are going against Jordan Lyles and a bad and overworked Pirates bullpen. Lyles has a 4.53 lifetime ERA against the Reds.
04-03-19	Astros -1.5 v. Rangers	Top	0-4	Loss	-109	11 h 4 m	Show
The Astros have dominated the Rangers at Globe Life Park winning 14 of the past 16 times (88%) there. I see this as a kill spot for the Astros so I'm laying 1 1/2 runs playing the run line in order to cut back on the heavy juice. The pitching matchup is Gerrit Cole versus lefty Mike Minor. Cole is an elite pitcher, who is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five career outings versus the Rangers with four of those starts occurring last season. Minor is a borderline starter, who was hammered in his first start this year giving up six runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. The Astros are 39-23 against southpaws since last season, including 2-0 this year.
04-02-19	Angels v. Mariners -117		1-2	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
This price is low enough to get involved with the Mariners. Seattle is off to a fast start with 6-1 record. The Mariners are swinging hot bats averaging 7.7 runs per game. The Angels own a 6-2 win against the A's. However, they have scored just six runs in their four other games. The pitching matchup pits journeyman Trevor Cahill against Marco Gonzales, who was 3-0 with a 3.34 ERA against the Angels last season. Seattle is 5-1 versus the Angles the past six times Gonzales has started against them. The Angels also have trouble playing in Seattle losing in six of their last seven visits.
04-01-19	Angels v. Mariners OVER 8.5	Top	3-6	Win	100	21 h 33 m	Show
The Mariners have gone Over the total in five of their six games this season. Seattle has a very underrated offense. The Mariners are averaging eight runs a game. However, the Mariners have a very unsettled bullpen with no reliable closer. Seattle is giving up 5.8 runs per game. The Mariners should keep their hot bats going against Chris Stratton, who had a 4.63 ERA with the Giants last season and wasn't very effective. The Angels should get their share of runs facing Felix Hernandez, who hasn't won since June 30 of last season. If Hernandez wasn't "King Felix" he wouldn't even be in a starting rotation. Too much wear and tear has reduced Hernandez to someone who shouldn't be in a big league starting rotation. He is 0-8 with a 6.34 ERA in his last 11 starts.
03-31-19	White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8.5	Top	6-3	Loss	-101	10 h 56 m	Show
Lucas Giolito has a lot of potential. That potential rarely surfaced last season, though, except when Giolito went against the Royals. He was 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA in six starts against Kansas City last season holding the Royals to a .199 batting averge. Jorge Lopez goes for the Royals. The White Sox have never seen him giving Lopez an edge. Neither team has a strong offense. The Under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the teams have met in Kansas City.
03-28-19	Mets v. Nationals -125		2-0	Loss	-125	11 h 16 m	Show
The two best pitchers in the National League square off here - Jacob deGrom versus Max Scherzer. Between them they have won the last three National League Cy Young Awards. So why get involved backing the Nationals? They are the superior team with home field advantage. Washington has won 72 percent of its last 32 home games when Scherzer has started. Much of that is built into the line where the Nationals are favored. But what sways me completely over to the Nationals' side is the unique backstory to the Mets' travel arrangements. The Mets didn't orginally fly to D.C. from their Florida-based spring training, but to Syracuse, N.Y. to conduct practices there in cold weather to celebrate the town being where their new minor league Triple A affiliate is. This game goes at an an early start time and part of the Mets' travel itinerary involved being on a bus and low level hotel. Making matters worse is their team flight from Florida to Syracuse was delayed three hours. The team wasn't happy with this arrangement, particulary star pitcher Noah Syndergaard, who spoke out against it.
10-23-18	Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5	Top	4-8	Loss	-115	23 h 56 m	Show
The oddsmaker can't really set a total lower than this given the offenses of the Dodgers and Red Sox. Still, it's too high for this Game 1 World Series matchup given the starting pitching matchup, fully rested bullpens and cool New England October night weather. Clayton Kershaw has erased his previous postseason blues by pitching well in the playoffs. The Brewers couldn't touch him. Boston has the added disadvantage of never having faced Kershaw. By the same token, the current Dodgers haven't seen lefty Chris Sale since he last pitched against the Dodgers in 2012. Sale had another brilliant season with a 2.11 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 237-to-34. The Dodgers have had problems versus southpaws during the playoffs batting only .207 against them.
10-19-18	Dodgers v. Brewers +106	Top	2-7	Win	106	25 h 37 m	Show
I like the price and I certainly like the Brewers chances of winning this Game 6 of the NLCS to stay alive in the series. Milwaukee went 51-30 at Miller Park during the regular season. The pitching matchup pits Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Wade Miley. Ryu historically has been far less effective away from home. The Dodgers are 2-11 (15 percent) the last 13 times Ryu has pitched against an above .500 opponent on the road. The Brewers saw Ryu in Game 2 at home and got to him for two runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings. Miley started for Milwaukee in that Game 2 home victory and held LA to just two hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Brewers have three dominant relief pitchers - Josh Hader, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress. All are rested.
10-14-18	Astros v. Red Sox +115		5-7	Win	115	9 h 46 m	Show
This isn't a fade on the Astros. It's a play on Boston. I'm not going to pass up taking a price with the Red Sox at home. The pitching matchup is Gerrit Cole versus David Price. There are two ways of looking at this. The first is the negative view of Price being 0-9 with a 6.03 ERA in 10 postseason starts. That mark has tarnished his legacy. But I choose the positive view of Price having dominated the Astros in his three years with the Red Sox. Those numbers show Price to have a 2.43 ERA and holding Houston to a .205 batting average across 33 1/3 innings, including working 6 2/3 scoreless relief innings versus Houston in last year's Division Series. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was a bench coach for the Astros last season. He wouldn't give the ball to Price in this crucial game if he thought he couldn't get the job done. Boston is 20-6 in Price's past 26 starts at Fenway Park. Augmenting the Red Sox argument is Cole's poor sampling at Fenway Park where he's 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts.
10-12-18	Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5		5-6	Win	100	23 h 37 m	Show
The Brewers have won 11 straight games. They would be 26-4 in their last 30 games if plus 1 1/2 runs. Yet they are mid-sized home underdogs because the starting pitching matchup is Clayton Kershaw versus Gio Gonzalez and there's a perception the Brewers aren't in the Dodgers class. They are. The Brewers finished four games better than the Dodgers this season. Kershaw isn't the monster in the playoffs he is during the regular season with a postseason career ERA above 4.00. It's a large sampling, too - 130 innings. Gonzalez is in excellent form and has a strong history versus the Dodgers. He's 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 15 innings. Lifetime against the Dodgers, Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 38 innings. The Brewers have the superior bullpen. So Gonzalez probably won't be asked to go more than five innings. He can go all out in those innings. The oddsmaker is anticipating a 4-3 type of game with this low total. So getting 1 1/2 runs should loom huge.
10-05-18	Indians +136 v. Astros	Top	2-7	Loss	-100	14 h 58 m	Show
It's wrong to disrespect the Indians especially with Corey Kluber on the mound. But that's what oddsmaker have done by opening the Astros this big of a favorite. Kluber had another huge season going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA. He was 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts versus the Astros this season. Cleveland has won 70 percent of Kluber's last 23 road starts. A big factor why the Astros opened as such a big favorite in this Game 1 is Justin Verlander. He had an excellent season, too, going 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA. The Astros won all five of Verlander's September starts. He surrendered just four earned runs in 33 innings during September for a 1.09 ERA. However, Verlander was bad in August with a 5.29 ERA in six starts. None of the teams he pitched against in September - Twins, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Angels and Orioles - made the postseason. All had losing records except the 82-80 Diamondbacks. Verlander also has a better road mark where he went 12-2 with a 2.14 ERA compared to 4-7 at home with a 2.84 ERA. Verlander doesn't have a good history against the Indians either. He is 20-24 against them lifetime with a 4.71 ERA.
10-02-18	Rockies v. Cubs -131	Top	2-1	Loss	-131	19 h 48 m	Show
I like the Cubs for a number of reasons here and the price is low enough to back them. Both the Cubs and Rockies each lost Monday forcing this one-game Wild-card game. Chicago, though, lost hosting the Brewers. The Rockies fell to the Dodgers in LA so they have had to make a long trip. The Cubs are far more experienced in big games. It was just two years ago when the Cubs won the World Series. The Rockies were one and done in the postseason last year losing a wildcard game to the Diamondbacks on the road. Previous to that the Rockies had not played in the postseason since 2009. I also like the pitching matchup for the Cubs with Kyle Freeland opposing Jon Lester. Freeland has been brilliant this season. Surprisingly, though, he put up better numbers at Coors Field than in his road games. His away ERA is 3.23. Freeland is pitching on short rest, too, having last pitched three days ago. He has a 4.15 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in two career starts. Lester is in great form and has an excellent postseason history. He is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his past three starts this season. Lester has made five career starts against Colorado and posted a 2.25 ERA. The Cubs have won 74 percent of Lester's past 51 home starts.
10-01-18	Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7	Top	2-5	Push	0	6 h 14 m	Show
Nothing against German Marquez and Walker Buehler, but I see more than seven runs being scored in this game. Both teams are swinging hot bats. The Rockies have scored 58 runs in their last seven games for an average of 8.2 runs per game. The Dodgers have scored seven or more runs in five of their last eight games. They have scored 25 runs during this past two games. Marquez and Buehler have been pitching well, but both are young and inexperienced when it comes to huge games such as this one.
09-28-18	Indians v. Royals UNDER 8.5	Top	14-6	Loss	-120	17 h 42 m	Show
Two below-the-radar pitchers take the mound here in a meaningless matchup. The Indians have clinched their playoff position so they could be resting regulars. The Royals rank 25th in runs and homers. But what really makes this a strong Under play is the starting pitching matchup and weather factors. Mike Clevinger gets the ball for Cleveland. He's given up only six earned runs during his last five starts spanning 29 2/3 innings. Ian Kennedy goes for Kansas City. He is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts. The Under has cashed in 19 of his last 26 starts. Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium is more of a pitcher's park. The weather forecast is going to be good for the pitchers, too, with temperatures in the low 50's with wind blowing in at 12-14.
09-27-18	Braves -125 v. Mets	Top	1-4	Loss	-125	18 h 23 m	Show
The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games and in pursuit of the Cubs for the best record in the NL. Atlanta's lone loss during this span came on Wednesday to the Mets - and Jacob deGrom. No shame in that as deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball. Now, though, the Braves draw the lowly Mets and Jason Vargas. He hasn't been good since the first half of last season when he pitched for the Royals. Vargas is 6-9 with a 6.25 ERA this season. He has a 6.14 ERA in three starts against the Mets this year. The Braves have gotten to Vargas for 19 hits in 14 2/3 innings. New York has scored thre runs or fewer in seven of its last 11 games. The Braves have scored at least five runs in six of their past eight games. I think it's a cheap price to lay with the much superior Braves. They are starting Julio Teheran and their bullpen has been shored up with the return to health of closer Arodys Vizcaino. Teheran has posted a solid 3.32 ERA during his past 10 starts holding batters to a .177 average in this time frame. He has a 2.42 career ERA in 24 lifetime appearances versus the Mets. Teheran has a 1.69 ERA against the Mets in four starts this year.
09-26-18	Astros +121 v. Blue Jays	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	4 h 21 m	Show
This is a crapshoot in a starting pitching matchup of Chris Devenki versus Sean Reid-Foley in what shapes up to be a bullpen game. So why not back the much superior Astros in a 'dog role? Why not indeed. Houston is 25-7 in its last 32 games. Devenski was very good last season in a relief role. He hasn't been healthy this season. He should be OK for a few innings here. The Astros have the superior bullpen and offense even if all of their regulars don't play. There's a possibility the Astros get back Carlos Correa, too.
09-25-18	Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5	Top	1-4	Loss	-127	19 h 29 m	Show
As the season finally draws to a merciful end for the Rangers and Angels those two teams have put on a recent power display. The Rangers have smacked 11 homers in their last 11 games, while the Angels have hit 18 homers in their past 11 games. I see no earthly reason why each of these teams can't score at least four runs apiece given their homer production, bad starting pitching matchup and depleted bullpens. We begin with the Rangers, who are going with Yovani Gallardo. He is well past his prime and clearly has hit the wall going 1-5 with a 7.39 ERA in his last seven starts. Opponents are batting .328 off him during this span. Gallardo has been especially brutal during his past three starts with a 10.22 ERA. Gallardo's road ERA this season is 7.29 and his night ERA is 6.98. He has made two starts against the Angels and is 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA. Gallardo is not pitching deep into games as you might guess. He hasn't reached the sixth inning during any of his last six outings. The Rangers' bullpen doesn't have a single reliable reliever. The Angels are starting Matt Shoemaker, who has an 8.03 ERA in his last three starts. Shoemaker's home ERA this season is 5.79. The Over is 8-2-1 in Shoemaker's past 11 home starts. His career ERA versus Texas is 4.91 in 36 2/3 innings. Shoemaker doesn't pitch deep into games either having failed to go more than five innings during his last five starts. The Angels do not have a strong bullpen either. Both team's bullpens are very much depleted, too, at this late juncture of the season. Weather shouldn't factor with just a slight wind that will be blowing out. Pat Hoberg is slated to be behind the plate. The Over has cashed 55 percent of the time he has been the home plate during the last two years spanning 58 games.
09-23-18	Rockies +103 v. Diamondbacks		2-0	Win	103	14 h 41 m	Show
The Diamondbacks went with their two top pitchers, Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin, during the first two games of this crucial series. Both lost. Those defeats have killed any realistic hope the Diamondbacks had of making the playoffs. The Diamondbacks are 3-11 in their last 14 games. They are a dead team. Arizona has scored two or fewer runs in four of their last five games. Their bullpen has blown up. Colorado has the momentum trailing the Dodgers by just 1 1/2 games in the NL West and also 1 1/2 games behind the Cardinals for the second wild-card spot. The Rockies have played well on the road compiling a 43-37 away mark. The Rockies need this game and are going with their best starter, Kyle Freeland. He's in Cy Young Award territory with a 15-7 and 2.95 ERA. Freeland has been especially sharp down the stretch going 9-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his last 18 starts, allowing more than three earned runs only once during this span. There is the chance the Rockies get Trevor Story back, too, for this game. They've managed to beat the Diamondbacks in the first two games of this series without him. Colorado should be able to do damage against Zach Godley, who is 1-4 with a 7.42 ERA during his last six starts. The Rockies just faced Godley two weeks ago and battered him for five runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings in a 13-2 victory. That was the third time this season Godley has gone against Colorado. He holds a 6.14 ERA versus the Rockies in those three starts.
09-21-18	Rockies v. Diamondbacks -115	Top	6-2	Loss	-115	20 h 50 m	Show
Neither Colorado nor Arizona is in top form. The Diamondbacks, though, are home, have Zach Greinke going and are in absolute must-win mode in order to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Rockies are 1-5 in their last six games. They have scored nine runs during these past six games and aren't likely to have star shortstop Trevor Story, who is suffering from right elbow inflammation. Greinke is 19-4 at home the past two years. He has a 2.43 home ERA this season. Arizona has won 24 of his past 35 starts at Chase Field. Greinke has faced Colorado four times this season and is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA. I trust him in this spot. I can't say the same for Rockies starter German Marquez, who has nearly a 4.00 ERA on the year. Marquez has been pitching better, but has struggled versus Arizona with a 4.33 ERA against the Diamondbacks this season in five starts. This is a short lay price to get the better pitcher at home where he has a dominant record.
09-19-18	Reds +1.5 v. Brewers	Top	0-7	Loss	-129	18 h 38 m	Show
Strange things happen in September during baseball season. One such thing is Matt Harvey pitching well again. Harvey is pitching his best ball this month posting a 2.50 ERA in three starts. Certainly the Brewers are the superior team, but the Reds have gone 5-5 during the past 10 meetings in Milwaukee. The Reds can hurt the Brewers again drawing lefty Gio Gonzalez, who hasn't been effective during the last four months after pitching well in April and May. He's allowed five earned runs or more in five of his last 10 starts. The Reds are 22 games below .500. However, they are a far more respectable 22-23 versus lefty starters. If given the cushion of plus 1 1/2 runs, Cincinnati would be 9-2 in its last 11 games.
09-19-18	Cardinals -108 v. Braves		3-7	Loss	-108	11 h 45 m	Show
This matchup features two rookie starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty for St. Louis and Touki Tossaint for Atlanta. Flaherty not only is the proven one of these two, but he has been one of the better pitchers in the National League this season with a 2.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting just .193 against him. Tossaint has a 4.67 ERA in three starts and is dealing with control problems with 13 walks in 17 1/3 innings. The Braves are having bullpen trouble, too. The Cardinals have played much better since Mike Shildt replaced Mike Matheny going 37-22. Atlanta has dropped four in a row, all at home The Braves are 4-14 in their last 18 games at SunTrust Park. The Cardinals have dominated the Braves in Atlanta winning the past eight times at SunTrust Park.
09-18-18	Blue Jays -111 v. Orioles	Top	6-4	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
When it comes to giving up home runs, Dylan Bundy resembles Al Bundy. Bundy has surrendered 38 homers. That's not in his career. That's this season alone! No pitcher yields more homers than Bundy. Bundy has allowed at least one homer in each of his last 12 starts. The Orioles are 1-7 in Bundy's last eight starts. The Blue Jays have hit the fifth-most homers in the majors. They have an edge in the pitching department, too, with Aaron Sanchez facing Bundy. Sanchez is returning back into form following a two-month stint on the DL because of a finger injury. He held the powerful Red Sox to to one run on three hits in seven innings this past Wednesday. This will be Sanchez's third start of the season against the Orioles. He is 1-0 against them with a 1.88 ERA. Toronto has dominated Baltimore this year winning 13 of 17 for 76 percent. The price is low enough to fade the Orioles, who have by far the worst record in baseball at 43-107.
09-16-18	Mets +1.5 v. Red Sox		3-4	Win	100	9 h 59 m	Show
This is a marquee pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom versus Chris Sale. There should be an asterisk, though. That's because Sale is going to be on a pitch count and is expected to go three innings at the most. So there is tremendous value getting deGrom especially armed with plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. True, Boston has the best record in baseball with 102 victories. No other team has more than 93 wins. Surprisingly, the Mets have a better record than the Red Sox during the past 14 games going 10-4. Boston is 9-5. So the Mets are playing well and they have who I consider the best pitcher in baseball going. Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola have hit rough patches, so deGrom has a real shot to win the Cy Young Award. He broke a 108-year major league record by allowing three earned runs or fewer in his last 26 starts. You can not get more consistent than that. In his last eight starts, deGrom has held foes to two earned runs or less. He leads the majors with a 1.71 ERA. None of the other qualifers have an ERA under 2.00.
09-15-18	Rockies v. Giants +1.5		0-3	Win	100	11 h 51 m	Show
I don't trust the Rockies on the road especially when there is pressure on them. The Rockies were shut out by Chris Stratton, 2-0, last night and now face Madison Bumgarner. The prideful Bumgarner was rocked by the Rocies in a 9-8 road loss last week giving up six earned runs in five innings. The Giants are playing the string out. But Bumgarner will be up for this game. So should his teammates. Bumgarner has pitched much better at home this season where is 3-2 with a 1.49 ERA. He hasn't allowed a run during his last two AT&T Park starts spanning 14 innings. Rockies starter German Marquez has been pitching well lately, but he's several levels below Bumgarner and has a poor history versus San Francisco with an 0-2 lifetime record and 6.86 ERA. He's made three starts at AT&T Park and has an 8.79 ERA. The Giants have scored only five runs in their last four games so I feel more secure laying juice instead of taking an underdog price with the protection of plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line as I envision another close game here. So does the oddsmaker setting a total of 7.
09-14-18	Tigers +1.5 v. Indians	Top	5-4	Win	100	18 h 38 m	Show
The Tigers are going with their best pitcher, lefty Matt Boyd, here against Josh Tomlin. Josh Tomlin? Yep the Indians stiff is getting a rare start because Cleveland is gearing up for the playoffs and is on cruise control. The Indians are displaying a real lack of concern about winning this game by trotting Tomlin out to start. Tomlin is 1-5 with a 6.63 ERA. This will be his seventh start. He's 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his first six starts. The Indians booted him out of the rotation way back on May 15. The Tigers beat the Indians, 9-8, during Tomlin's last start on May 15 getting to him for four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. Boyd gave up one run on two hits with 11 strikeouts and one walk in his last start, which came this past Saturday against the Cardinals. Boyd has a 3.05 career ERA versus Cleveland in seven appearances, including six starts. Cleveland is only 19-18 versus southpaws on the season. The Indians have lost seven of the past eight times they've faced a lefty starter. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Tigers' record would look much better. They would be 9-2 in their last 11 games if plus 1 1/2.
09-13-18	Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 10	Top	3-10	Push	0	14 h 8 m	Show
Coors Field is Coors Field. I get that. But in a pitching matchup of Clay Buchholz versus Kyle Freeland with a double-digit total, I have to go Under. These are two of the most underrated pitchers in the National League, if not all of baseball. Buchholz has thrived in the National League with the Diamondbacks. He has done far better than expected - and has yet to slow down giving up just three earned runs during his last five starts spanning 34 1/3 innings. He is 7-2 on the season with a 2.01 ERA. Freeland is 14-7 on the year with a 2.91 ERA. It has not bothered him pitching at Coors Field where he actually has thrived posting a 2.21 home ERA. The lefty is on a string of nine straight starts of allowing three earned runs or fewer. The Under has cashed in 21 of his past 28 starts. Arizona has gone below the total the past six times when facing a southpaw starter. Weather is not a factor. The scheduled home plate umpire is Chris Conroy. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of his 24 games behind the plate this year.
09-12-18	White Sox -130 v. Royals	Top	4-2	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
The Royals have been playing better of late, but they still are a terrible team and 7-21 in their last 28 games versus a lefty starter. Kansas City faces White Sox southpaw Carlos Rodon in this matchup. Rodon had been brilliant before his last two starts giving up two earned runs or less in eight of nine starts. Rodon has not looked good in his past two outings, though. However, he hasn't pitched three poor games in a row all season. I like him here against a Royals team that ranks 28th in runs. Chicago has won 11 of its last 16 road contests. The White Sox draw Eric Skoglund, who had been on the DL with a sprained elbow. He is 1-5 on the season with a 6.45 ERA. Skoguland isn't likely to pitch long and the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in the majors.
09-12-18	Pirates -112 v. Cardinals		4-3	Win	100	11 h 10 m	Show
Up three games for the final wild-card spot, the Cardinals have the luxury of not overtaxing their young pitchers. They are doing just that by going to a six-man starting staff. St. Louis is pitching its sixth starter today, Daniel Poncedeleon. The Pirates have a huge pitching edge as they are going with their No. 1 starter, Jameson Taillon. He has been outstanding since the All-Star break going 6-2 with a 2.48 ERA. Taillon hasn't given up more than three earned runs during his past 10 starts. He has a 1.88 ERA in his past four starts. Pittsburgh is 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. So Taillon can be counted on to keep the Cardinals in check. The same can't be said for Poncedeleon holding down the Pirates. This only will be his fourth big league start. Poncedeleon last started 11 days ago and yielded three runs on five hits in 3 1/3 innings against the Reds in a 4-0 loss. The Pirates have scored five or more runs in five of their last six games.
09-11-18	Rockies v. Diamondbacks -119	Top	3-6	Win	100	9 h 23 m	Show
Arizona and Colorado are involved in a big series. The pitching matchup for Tuesday is Zach Greinke versus Antonio Senzatela. I want Greinke going for me. The Diamondbacks are 7-2 in Greinke's last nine road starts. I regard Greinke at least two levels higher than Senzatela, who has close to a 5.00 ERA and owns a horrible history versus the Diamondbacks with a lifetime 8.27 ERA in six career games. He is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in two games, including one start, against Arizona this season. Greinke is coming off a rare bad start. A bad start for Greinke is giving up four earned runs. Only twice in his last 15 starts as he allowed more than three earned runs. Greinke is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three starts versus Colorado this season. The Diamondbacks have fared well at Coors Field, too, winning nine of their last 12 there.
09-10-18	Braves v. Giants +107	Top	4-1	Loss	-100	20 h 47 m	Show
The Giants are in a great position here to put an end to their season-high eight-game losing streak of which the last six losses have come on the road. San Francisco is 39-30 at home. The Giants have defeated the Braves 11 of the last 16 times they have hosted them. The youthful Braves are in letdown mode after rallying for six runs in the ninth inning to beat the Diamondbacks, 9-5, Sunday in Arizona. That victory allowed the Braves to take three of four from Arizona and move ahead of the Phillies by 4 1/2 games in the NL East. It's not just the spot that is ripe for San Francisco. The Giants also have a pitching matchup edge. Sean Newcomb has clearly hit the wall in this his first full season in the majors. Newcomb has allowed 35 hits and 21 runs during his past five starts spanning 23 2/3 innings. Going back to his past 11 starts his ERA registers 5.91. The Giants have nine more hits than their opponents during their last four games. They are pitching Dereck Rodriguez, who has been outstanding. The rookie has not hit the wall like Newcomb as only once in 15 starts has he given up more than three earned runs. Rodriguez has made eight starts since the All-Star break and has posted a 1.97 ERA and 0.87 WHIP during this span. The Braves have never gone against him.
09-08-18	Dodgers v. Rockies +129	Top	2-4	Win	129	19 h 48 m	Show
I like Dodgers rookie Walker Buehler. But he shouldn't be a road favorite at Coors Field against Kyle Freeland. The Rockies have won 22 of their last 31 home games. Freeland has been a huge part of Colorado's success at home. The Rockies are 10-1 (91%) in his last 11 starts at Coors Field. Freeland is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 13-7 mark and 2.96 ERA. He is one of the few pitchers who actually thrives when pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field with a 2.27 home ERA this season. Colorado is 6-0 during his last six overall starts. The Dodgers are without their closer, Kenley Jansen, for this series. Freeland has gone at least six innings in each of his past six starts. He's backed up by Adam Ottavino, one of the best setup pitchers in baseball, and closer Wade Davis. The Dodgers can't match that late-inning relief with Jansen missing in action.
09-06-18	Braves v. Diamondbacks -149	Top	7-6	Loss	-149	25 h 8 m	Show
This is a very tough spot for the Braves, who lost 9-8 to the Red Sox at home on Wednesday after blowing a six-run lead. Now Atlanta takes to the road for the first time since Aug. 26 going cross-country. The Red Sox left the Braves reeling outscoring them, 22-11, in sweeping the three-game series. Atlanta's bullpen had to go 12 2/3 innings during the series and lacks a consistent closer with Arodys Vizcaino on the DL with a shoulder injury. Arizona has been at home since Monday. The Diamondbacks were idle Wednesday so their bullpen is rested. Arizona shouldn't have to rely on their relief pitchers too heavily with Zack Greinke on the hill. He remains a brilliant pitcher with a 13-9 record and 2.97 ERA. Greinke has been his best at home, too, going 6-3 with a 2.16 ERA at Chase Field. He has surrendered two or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 home starts. Arizona is 24-10 in Greinke's last 34 home starts. He should be especially strong pitching with an extra day of rest. Arizona has won 16 of the past 23 times Greinke has pitched on five days rest. The Diamondbacks also are 11-5 following an off day. Anibal Sanchez gets the call for the Braves. He also is pitching on extra rest. However, the Braves are 0-5 the last five times he's gone on five days rest. The 34-year-old has pitched much better than expected, but he could start to be wearing down. Sanchez has only reached the sixth inning once in his last four starts giving up nine earned runs in 22 2/3 innings during this span. He's allowed 28 baserunners in this time frame and three homers. Atlanta is 1-4 in Sanchez's past five starts.
09-05-18	Yankees v. A's +146	Top	2-8	Win	146	13 h 3 m	Show
Oakland is 49-21 in its last 70 games. The A's have been a remarkable story and continue to be underrated. A rejuvenated Mike Fiers has looked good since coming to the A's from the Tigers. Oakland is 5-0 in Fiers' starts. The A's have beaten the Yankees in 17 of the past 24 times they have hosted them. Playing in the spacious Oakland Coliseum is tough for the power-hitting Yankees. The time difference doesn't help either for New York. Oakland is 24-9 in its last 33 home contests. So I'm surprised the Yankees are such a heavy favorite here. Luis Severino hasn't been nearly as effective as he was earlier in the season. He's yielded four or more earned runs in five of his last nine starts. His ERA is up to 3.32, which is good but not dominant. The Yankees remain without several key injured players - Aroldis Chapman, Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius.
09-05-18	Tigers v. White Sox -163		10-2	Loss	-163	12 h 43 m	Show
I'm willing to lay this price in order to get on board with Michael Kopech. The rookie could be the best pitching prospect in baseball. So far he's lived up to that giving up one run in 11 innings with a 9-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his first three big league starts, two of which were interrupted by rain. Kopech faced the Tigers on Aug. 26, holding them to one run on seven hits in six innings. The White Sox have quietly been playing good ball winning 14 of their last 21, including going 8-4 in their last 12 games. The Tigers aren't as enthused as the youthful White Sox. Detroit has suffered a lot of injuries and is playing the string out. The Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11. They are starting Jordan Zimmerman, who has a 6.26 lifetime ERA versus the White Sox in 12 career starts.
09-03-18	Mets +124 v. Dodgers	Top	4-2	Win	124	17 h 13 m	Show
What if I told you that you could get arguably the best pitcher in baseball - the one who has the lowest ERA in the majors and has given up three or fewer runs in 24 straight games - at an underdog price? You would grab it, right, especially when it comes with a huge situational edge? That's what the underdog Mets have going for themselves on Monday in a pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom versus Alex Wood. The Mets can't match the Dodgers at the other eight spots, but deGrom is an absolute monster ranking first in ERA, fourth in strikeouts and sixth in WHIP in the majors. The Mets have won three of their last four games. The Dodgers are playing well, too, but are in a dangerous letdown spot after winning their last three games against the Diamondbacks to take over sole possession of first place in the NL West Division. LA won all of these games against Arizona by the same 3-2 score. The Mets already are on the West Coast having just concluded a series against the Giants in San Francisco. They draw Wood, who has possess a decent by hardly dominating 8-6 record and 3.42 ERA. The Mets are well acquainted with Wood, who used to pitch for the Braves in the NL East. Wood is 1-3 career-wise versus the Mets with a 3.83 ERA. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Wood's last four home starts.
09-02-18	Rockies -132 v. Padres	Top	7-3	Win	100	13 h 11 m	Show
Maybe it's because he pitches at Coors Field. Maybe it's because the Rockies aren't a big market team. Whatever the reason, Kyle Freeland may be the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Freeland is 12-7 with a 2.90 ERA despite pitching at Coors. Freeland has been pitching well for quite a while now, but he's been especially dominant during his last five starts with a 1.67 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings during this span. Colorado is 16-5 in Freeland's past 21 starts, 10-1 during his last 11 outings. Oh, yes, Freeland is a southpaw. The Padres have a hideous 13-30 record versus lefty starters this season. That's the most losses against southpaws in the majors. The Padres are in rebuild mode. They are just 27-44 at home. San Diego has gutted its bullpen and is auditioning young starters, sort of throwing darts. Rookie Jacob Nix gets the call here. He has a 4.05 ERA and doesn't miss many bats with just seven strikeouts in 20 innings. Colorado is familar with Nix having just seen him on Aug. 22. The Rockies scored three runs on five hits in five innings against Nix winning 6-2 at home. The Rockies rank in the top-10 in runs and batting average, while the Padres rank in the bottom-three in those categories.
09-01-18	Red Sox v. White Sox +155		6-1	Loss	-100	16 h 14 m	Show
Boston is a phenomenal 93-42. However, the Red Sox are merely 17-14 when going against a lefty starter. The Red Sox face one of the hottest southpaws in the league in a pitching matchup of Eduardo Rodriguez versus Carlos Rodon. Rodriguez is making his first start since July 14 having been sidelined by a sprained ankle. Rodon has been terrific since returning from injury. He is 5-0 with a 1.84 ERA during his past nine starts. Not only do the White Sox have their hottest pitcher going, but they are playing their finest ball winning 12 of their last 17 games. Chicago is averaging 5.4 runs in its past 19 games. The White Sox have scored four or more runs in 11 of their last 13 games. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last six road games, including a 6-1 setback to the White Sox on Friday night.
09-01-18	Brewers +130 v. Nationals		4-5	Loss	-100	16 h 10 m	Show
Milwaukee is 8-3 and very much in playoff contention. They have a very good manager in Craig Counsell and excellent team morale knowing their management is constantly making moves to improve the team. One of those moves was picking up Gio Gonzalez, who had pitched seven years for Washington. The Brewers are sure to pick the newly acquired Gonzalez's brain about the Nationals. Washington has a terrible manager, Dave Martinez, low morale and has been a major underachiever with a below .500 record. Yet the oddsmaker has installed the Nationals as the favorite here because of a pitching matchup of Chase Anderson versus Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has the big reputation. But it's Anderson who has the lower ERA this season. Opponents are batting just .224 versus Anderson, who has a 2.97 ERA in 12 road starts. Starsburg has really struggled when pitching at home going 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA in three lifetime games against the Brewers. Strasburg can't expect much help from a Nationals bullpen that has been depleted by injuries and trades.
08-31-18	Red Sox v. White Sox +152	Top	1-6	Win	152	18 h 7 m	Show
White Sox plus $1.48 hosting Red Sox Michael Kopech isn't just the White Sox's best pitching prospect. He's one of the top ones in all of baseball. Kopech hasn't disappointed during his first two starts allowing just one run in eight innings. Now he draws the Red Sox at home. The Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games. That's the White Sox, who have compiled that record. The Red Sox actually have lost four of their past five road games. Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi has been cold giving up four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. Eovaldi has been tagged for nine earned runs on 18 hits during his last two starts spanning only 9 1/3 innings. The Red Sox are down several players because of injury, including first baseman Mitch Moreland who isn't expected to play because of a sore knee.
08-29-18	Tigers -101 v. Royals	Top	2-9	Loss	-101	12 h 19 m	Show
Kansas City is 2-9 the past 11 times Danny Duffy has pitched at home. Duffy has been horrible this season. I'm not buying the Royals opening as a favorite against the Tigers when Detroit has its best pitcher, Michael Fulmer, on the mound. Detroit has the superior late-inning relievers, too, and has scored more runs than the Royals. The Royals, in fact, have scored the fewest runs in the majors. Fulmer looked good in his last outing this past Friday. He held the White Sox scoreless for 4 2/3 innings throwing 77 pitches. That was his first start since the All-Star break. He had been out with an oblique strain. Fulmer should go longer in his second start back from the injury. The Tigers have buried Duffy in their two meetings this season. Duffy has given up 13 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings during two starts versus Detroit for an ERA of 11.32. Duffy doesn't have a good history against Detroit with a 7-10 career-mark and 4.63 ERA in 24 outings.
08-28-18	Marlins v. Red Sox -1.5	Top	7-8	Loss	-120	17 h 50 m	Show
Not only are the Red Sox far, far superior to the Marlins, but there is zero chance of them taking Miami lightly. That's because Boston just suffered its first sweep of the season losing three in a row on the road to Tampa Bay. Now the Red Sox are home and should be re-energized after being idle on Monday. I see this as a kill spot for the Red Sox so am going to lay 1 1/2 runs in order to knock down the high juice as the oddsmaker also envisions this as an easy win for Boston. The Red Sox are 48 games above .500. The Marlins are 19 games below .500. Boston is 39-14 the past 53 times they've met an opponent with a losing record. The Red Sox have beaten their opponent by multiple runs during 10 of their last 11 victories. The Marlins have lost by more than one run in seven of their past eight defeats. The pitching matchup is Jose Urena, who is 4-12 with a 4.50 ERA, against swingman Brian Johnson, who is at his best when starting. Johnson is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in 10 starts. Boston has won eight of those 10 outings. Miami is 3-8 in Urena's past 11 road starts. Urena has pitched slightly worse on the road. He's going to be facing a DH and the top team in the majors in runs, batting average and OPS. The Marlins have nobody anywhere close to the caliber of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez.
08-27-18	Nationals -110 v. Phillies	Top	5-3	Win	100	19 h 11 m	Show
The Nationals really need this game to keep their flickering playoff hopes somewhat alive. I see them getting the win here in a pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg versus Zach Eflin. Both pitched poorly when they matched up five days ago. The Nationals won that game, 8-7, at home. Strasburg made that start having just come off the DL. He was rusty having not pitched since July 20. Following that game, Strasburg was quoted as saying, "It's a work in progress. I obviously missed a while, so I'll learn some things and take it into the next one (start)." Strasburg has pitched much better on the road where he is 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA this season. He has a tremendous history pitching against the Phillies with a 10-2 mark, 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Strasburg's ERA at Citzens Band Park is 1.45 in eight career starts. The Nationals got their bats going on Sunday scoring a combined 14 runs during the final two innings against the Mets.The Nationals pounded Eflin for five runs, four of which were earned, on 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings this past Wednesday. Eflin probably should not still be in the Phillies' starting rotation. He has a 5.59 ERA in his last seven starts. He has a 6.48 career ERA versus the Nationals in two starts. The Phillies are 7-12 in their last 19 games, including losing six of their last eight games.
08-26-18	White Sox -111 v. Tigers		7-2	Win	100	4 h 3 m	Show
Surprised to see the White Sox a road favorite? Don't be. Michael Kopech is pitching for Chicago. The righthander might be the best pitching prospect in baseball. Kopech's big league debut was cut short after two scoreless innings against the Twins this past Tuesday because of a rain delay. Kopech had four strikeouts in that brief appearance. Kopech had 174 strikeouts in 128 1/3 innings in the minors before getting the call up. The Tigers have scored fewer than four runs in four of their last five games. They rank last in on-base percentage versus righty starters. The White Sox are playing well winning eight of their last 11. They draw Jordan Zimmerman, who has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 9 1/3 innings against the White Sox this season. Detroit is 5-12 in Zimmerman's past 17 home starts.
08-25-18	Braves v. Marlins +154		1-3	Win	154	18 h 57 m	Show
Anibal Sanchez has turned back the hands of time. After posting ERA's of 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41, the 34-year-old Sanchez appeared washed-up. He has rejuvenated his career with the Braves this season, but is beginning to slow down. Sanchez has a 3.13 ERA on the season, but in his last six starts his ERA is 4.22. The Marlins have proven extremely tough at home with lefty Wei-Yin Chen on the mound winning 14 of the past 20 times he has started at Marlins Park. The Braves have been a great story going 72-56. However, they have a losing record versus southpaw starters. Chen has been terrible on the road with a 1-6 mark and 9.35 ERA, but great at home with a 2.05 ERA. He has a 2.08 ERA in three starts this month. Atlanta has been held to three runs or fewer in six of its last nine games. The Braves also have dropped their last five Saturday games.
08-24-18	Indians -1.5 v. Royals		4-5	Loss	-130	17 h 17 m	Show
The Royals are 38-90. The Orioles and them are the worst teams in baseball by far. Cleveland versus Kansas City is an epic mismatch worth laying 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Indians. Cleveland is coming on having shored up its one weak spot, the bullpen. The Indians are 15-6 this month. Kansas City is 5-17 in August, losers of five in a row. The Indians own massive edges against the Royals in every facet, including starting pitching in a matchup of Mike Clevinger versus Brad Keller. Clevinger is better than any Kansas City pitcher yet he's just the No. 4 starter for the powerful Indians. Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four August starts. He is 1-0 versus the Royals this season with a 1.80 ERA. Keller is a better reliever than starter. The Royals average the fewest runs per game in baseball and their bullpen is last in ERA. Cleveland has won 17 of its last 22 road games. The Indians swept the Royals in Kansas City when they visited them last month. The Royals are 18-45 during their last 63 home contests. (Stephen Nover's free Friday Play) White Sox at Tigers Under 9 minus $1.20 First off, we're not talking about two good offenses here. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs scored. They are minus Jose Abreau, who leads them in homers, RBI's and runs. The Tigers are even worse offensively rating 26th in runs. Detroit has its best starter going, Michael Fulmer. He's making his first start since going on the DL July 20 because of an oblique injury. Fulmer looked good in two minor league rehab starts not allowing a run in six innings while striking out 11. Fulmer's fastball was clocked at a season-high 98 mph. The under has cashed in six of Fulmer's last seven big league starts. Fulmer is backed by two good backend relief pitchers, Joe Jimenez and closer Shane Greene, who has 27 saves. Chicago starter Reynaldo Lopez has made four starts against the Tigers this season and has a respectable 3.24 ERA against them. The Tigers cobbled a starting lineup against the White Sox on Thursday that had five players batting less than .234. Both the weather forecast and scheduled home plate umpire are strong points for a low-scoring game, too. The wind will be blowing in at 10-12 at Comerica Park, which is a good pitcher's park. Adam Hamari is slated to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed 32 of the past 49 times (65%) the last two years when he's been the home plate umpi
08-23-18	Royals v. Rays OVER 7	Top	3-4	Push	0	18 h 4 m	Show
An opening total of 7 in a pitching matchup of Danny Duffy versus Tyler Glasnow is just too low. Duffy is coming off the DL to make the start. He's been sidelined by left shoulder impingement. The Royals are better off without the veteran lefty. Duffy has a 4.90 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He's nothing but an innings-eater at this stage. Duffy wasn't sharp either before going on the DL allowing 12 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings during his two August starts. Glasnow has yet to reach his potential. He's mainly struggled and has a 4.10 ERA. He had a 7.69 ERA with the Pirates last season, which included 13 starts. Glasnow has only pitched past the fifth inning once this season. He is coming off a season-high pitch count. The Rays' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating.
08-22-18	Phillies +1.5 v. Nationals	Top	7-8	Win	100	17 h 40 m	Show
Maybe it was going 2-5 during their last road trip, which concluded this past Sunday. Whatever the reasons, the Nationals have hoisted up the White Flag. They did that by trading Daniel Murphy for a prospect and losing Matt Adams on waivers. The Phillies are superior to Washington. This isn't just opinion. Philadelphia has won five more games than the Nationals and lost six fewer games. They are in second-place by two games in the NL East and are 5 1/2 games ahead of the Nationals. Yet Washington is a huge favorite because of home field and a pitching matchup of Zach Eflin versus Stephen Strasburg. The Phillies would be 14-3 (82%) in Eflin's starts this season if given 1 1/2 runs. So I'm taking the Phillies with some insurance by backing them on the run line. I don't fear Strasburg. This marks his first start in more than a month and just his second appearance since June 8. Strasburg has pitched far worse at home going 2-5 with a 5.21 ERA. Washington is 1-5 in his last six home starts.
08-21-18	Cardinals v. Dodgers -170		5-2	Loss	-170	21 h 23 m	Show
In Ryu we trust especially when pitching at Dodger Stadium. The Cardinals are a hot club, but they are at a severe disadvantage in this matchup as evidenced by the large lay price on the Dodgers. Hyun-Jin Ryu made his first start since May 2 this past Wednesday. He shut out San Francisco on three hits in six innings with six strikeouts and no walks. That came at home where Ryu pitches his best. He is unscored upon at home this season in 19 innings. Ryu has a career 0.92 WHIP versus the Cardinals in three appearances. The Dodgers' bullpen received a huge lift with Kenley Jansen coming off the DL way ahead of schedule. Fed up with erratic Luke Weaver, the Cardinals are going with rookie Daniel Poncedeleon in this matchup. Poncedeleon was ranked as just the Cardinals' No. 30 minor league prospect. His ceiling is that of a fifth starter, or long reliever. He faces an LA squad that entered this week ranked No. 2 in the majors in home runs. The Dodgers have seven players with 15 or more homers, including six with 18 or more home runs.
08-21-18	Padres v. Rockies -167	Top	4-3	Loss	-167	20 h 54 m	Show
The Rockies are hot and rested having won eight of their last nine. They should be refreshed to open a six-game homestand having been idle Monday. Colorado is 20-7 in its past 27 home games. San Diego is 29 games below .500. The Padres have dropped six of their last seven and are 6-14 in their last 20 visits to Coors Field. The pitching matchup heavily favors Colorado, too, in battle of lefties with Robbie Erlin opposing Tyler Anderson. San Diego is 3-9 in Erlin's last 12 starts. The Rockes are 12-2 the past 14 times they've gone against a southpaw starter. Anderson knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 1.35 ERA during his past five home starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA in three starts versus San Diego this season. The Padres have dropped 26 of 38 games when facing a lefty starter.
08-20-18	Indians +101 v. Red Sox	Top	5-4	Win	101	21 h 6 m	Show
There is only one American League pitcher comparable to Corey Kluber. He pitches for Boston, but he's not Rick Porcello. It's Porcello, not injured Chris Sale, who opposes Kluber making the Indians a strong value play at this pick'em type opening price. Cleveland enters this marquee series winning seven of its last eight. Boston was shut out at home by Tampa Bay on Sunday. Normally I'm not looking to go against the Red Sox. But this is a huge pitching mismatch. Kluber and Porcello each have 15 victories. That is where the similarity ends, though. Kluber has a chance to win the Cy Young Award for a second straight year. He has a 2.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Porcello has a 4.04 ERA, which becomes 4.57 when he pitches at Fenway Park. The current Indians roster is batting a cumulative .333 lifetime versus Porcello. Cleveland is 22-8 in Kluber's past 30 road starts. The Indians have revamped their bullpen greatly improving their depth with Andrew Miller healthy and newcomers Brad Hand and Adam Cimber on board. The Indians can match any of Boston's top offensive players with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.
08-19-18	Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Padres	Top	4-3	Loss	-121	14 h 53 m	Show
The Padres are giving rookie pitcher Brett Kennedy a third chance. I don't think that's a good idea based on Kennedy's first two big league starts. Those came earlier this month against the Brewers and Angels. The combined results were 11 runs on 20 hits, including four homers, in nine innings giving Kennedy a fat 11.00 ERA. The Diamondbacks have won 23 of their last 34 road games and are going with Zack Grienke. Arizona is 30-10 during Greinke's past 40 starts versus sub .500 opponents. Greinke has dominated the Padres with an 11-2 record and 2.10 ERA in 21 career starts. He held them to one run in seven innings the last time he faced them on July 27. Greinke has a 2.77 daytime ERA this season. The Diamondbacks have won by more than one run in eight of their last nine victories. Getting an extra at bat being the road team is a plus and the Padres have been horrible at Petco Park losing 21 of the past 27 times there.
08-19-18	Brewers v. Cardinals -116		2-1	Loss	-116	12 h 54 m	Show
The Cardinals have won 10 of their last 11 games. The Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 games. So, why not ride the Cardinals especially at this low lay price? Why not indeed. St. Louis is playing its finest ball taking 14 of their last 17. The Brewers are in a tailspin, banged-up and have bullpen issues. Cardinals starter John Gant is proving dependable giving up only two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. He has a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin has a 3.83 road ERA and has a terrible history versus St. Louis going 0-7 with a 6.90 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts.
08-18-18	Brewers v. Cardinals -133	Top	2-7	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
The Cardinals are on fire winning nine of their last 10 games and 13 of their past 16. They have their best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Brewers are banged-up, have dropped nine of their last 10 NL Central Division games and are pitching journeyman southpaw Wade Miley. The Brewers are the fifth different team Miley has pitched for in the last five years. St. Louis is 7-1 the past eight times facing a lefty starter. Miley has pitched surprisingly well for Milwaukee, but appears to be tailing off. He has given up five earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. During this time frame, Miley has yielded 11 hits and four walks. The Cardinals have a good vibe and momentum. The Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 games. Mikolas has proven himself to be an elite pitcher, one of the most consistent in baseball. He hasn't given up more than four runs in a game all season. Mikolas is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA. St. Louis is 7-1 in his last eight starts.

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