I'm not going to land on the A's very much. But with Paul Blackburn getting the start and Texas not playing well, I'll get involved with Oakland on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs.

Blackburn is the A's best pitcher. He's 6-4 with a 3.36 ERA. Blackburn has been tremendous on the road where he's 5-0 with a 1.28 ERA.

Oakland has played better on the road. The A's are eight games below .500 away while a staggering 21 games below .500 when home.

If given 1 1/2 runs, the A's would be 8-3 in their last 11 games.

The Rangers are going with Jon Gray, who is 5-4 with a 4.03 ERA. Gray is never going to live up to the one-time hype of being a No. 1 type starter. He's been decent lately, but I would take Blackburn above him especially given how poorly Texas has been playing. The Rangers are 4-8 in their last dozen games. They would be 3-9 during this span if giving up 1 1/2 runs.

Starting pitchers Tarik Skubal of Detroit and Brady Singer of Kansas City are capable of taming tepid offenses. That should be the case here in this daytime getaway game, the final of a four-game series.

The Royals are averaging 3.4 runs in their last five games. They are 26th in runs and 25th in homers. Speedy leadoff hitter Whit Merrifield is out for the Royals.

The Tigers are averaging 2.6 runs during their past five games. They rank last in runs and homers. Singer is a righthander. The Under is 21-8-2 during the Tigers' last 31 away games against a righty starter.

Kansas City is a pitcher's park and there will be a slight wind blowing in. Shane Livensparger is slated to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed 12 of 18 times for 67 percent when Livensparger has been the home plate umpire this season.

Chris Sale can't be expected to go deep into this game having not pitched in the majors this season because of a rib stress fracture. Sale's rehab in preparing for his season debut was just 11 1/3 innings of minor league work with Boston's rookie league team, Double-A team and Triple-A team.

Rays starter Corey Kluber isn't the dominant Cy Young Award winner of years past. But he's still solid with a 3.62 ERA. The Red Sox know this first-hand. Kluber just faced Boston six days ago at Fenway Park and threw six shutout innings, giving up three hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 7-1 victory. Kluber is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA when pitching at Tropicana Park this season.

The Red Sox entered this series in a letdown frame having just taken two in a row from the Yankees, including a big 11-6 home win in the Sunday Night ESPN Game. The Rays, on the other hand, had much to prove returning home after being swept three games by the lowly Reds in Cincinnati. 

Lance Lynn has yet to show anything since coming off the injured list. He has a 5.33 ERA. He just gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Twins during his last start this past Wednesday. So I don't get him opening as a road favorite against the Guardians and Cal Quantrill.

Quantrill is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.86 ERA. He has been better at home where he's 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA.

The White Sox offense has been a disappointment this season ranking 20th in runs and 27th in homers. The White Sox entered the weekend with the highest swing rate in the American League at pitches outside the strike zone at nearly 36 percent.

This is the first game of a Monday doubleheader and it starts early with Michael Pineda facing Brad Keller.

Both pitchers will be made better by going against weak offenses.

Keller proved that 11 days ago when he held the Tigers scoreless in six innings during a 3-1 home victory. The righthander allowed just five hits to the Tigers. Detroit is last in the majors in homers, 29th in runs and OPS and 27th in batting.

Pineda has a respectable 3.62 ERA. He's backed by a surprising effective Detroit relief corps that went into the weekend with the third-lowest bullpen ERA. Pineda is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA in day games. Kansas City ranks 26th in runs and 24th in homers and OPS.

The Royals are likely to be missing speedy leadoff batter Whit Merrifield, who left Sunday's game with a toe injury.

These two teams have a strong Under history with the low side cashing 69 percent of the time during the last 34 meetings at 25-8-1, including the last four played in Kansas City.

Injured earlier in the season, Brandon Woodruff is back to ace form for Milwaukee with a 1.73 ERA in his last five starts. The Pirates are 28th in runs and 29th in batting. They are averaging 2.1 runs in their last six games.  The Brewers rank 22nd in batting. They are only averaging 3.1 runs during their last six games. So Pirates starter Zach Thompson should be able to hold up his end.  The home plate umpire is slated to be Roberto Ortiz. The Under has cashed 70 percent of the time the last 30 games he's been behind the plate. 

The talent-rich Dodgers are 53-29. Of those 53 wins, 48 have come by more than one run. So if the Dodgers are going to beat the Cubs here - and they are a strong favorite - there's a 90.5 percent chance they will win by multiple runs based on their previous games. 

The Dodgers are 8-1 in their last nine games. The Cubs are 4-11 in their past 15 road games. The Cubs have lost seven in a row to the Dodgers.

Cubs starter Keegan Thompson is showing promise with a 3.41 ERA. This will be only his fifth career appearance, though. He takes second fiddle to Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson, who is having a career season with a 9-1 record and 3.09 ERA.

I like Zac Gallen better than any Arizona pitcher. The Rockies are terrible on the road and the Diamondbacks have been swinging hot bats.

Even nipping the Diamondbacks by one run on Thursday, the Rockies are 9-25 in their last 34 road games. This isn't anything new. Colorado was 26-54 on the road last year. At 13-26, the Rockies own the worst away mark in the majors.

Gallen is very solid. He's 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA. The Rockies can hit at home, but not on the road. They've scored three runs or less in seven of their past eight away matchups.

Rockies starter Chad Kuhl has a 4.39 road ERA. He's off his highest pitch count in six games. Arizona has scored five or more runs in eight of its last 10 games.

Zach Wheeler has a 2.66 ERA solidifying his place as one of the top righthanders in baseball. He gets to face a scuffling Cardinals squad that has scored a puny seven runs in their last five games. Only once in their past eight games have the Cardinals topped three runs.

Adam Wainwright still is a very good home pitcher. His ERA when pitching in St. Louis is 2.25. Wainwright doesn't have to worry about facing the Phillies' most dangerous hitter with Bryce Harper out.

Weather-wise, the wind is blowing in from eight-to-10 miles per hour.

The talent-rich Dodgers are 52-29. Of those 52 wins, 47 have come by more than one run. So if the Dodgers are going to beat the Cubs here - and they are a monster favorite - there's a 90 percent chance they will win by multiple runs based on their previous games.

LA is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cubs are 4-10 in their past 14 road games. The Cubs have lost six in a row to the Dodgers.

Not only do the Dodgers have a huge lineup edge, but also in starting pitchers with Mark Leiter Jr. going against Cy Young Award candidate Tony Gonsolin.

Leiter was out of the majors the last three years until surfacing this season. He has a 4.85 ERA and is only in Chicago's rotation because of injuries to other pitchers.

Gonsolin is bidding to become the first 11-game winner this season His ERA of 1.54 is the best in the majors.

The Giants have to be faded as long as the oddsmaker keeps making them a favorite while they are struggling. San Francisco is 3-12 in its last 15 games. The Giants have lost a season-high six in a row.

Fresh off sweeping three games from the Giants in San Francisco - all in an underdog role - the White Sox returned to Chicago and lost Monday to the Twins. The White Sox's concentration could have been impacted by a tragic Fourth of July shooting that took place during an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago. The Twins also turned a key triple play.

I like the White Sox to bounce back today. Minnesota is 4-15 (21 percent) following a victory. The White Sox are 20-8 during the second game of a series.

Even with that victory, the Twins still are 3-9 during their last dozen road games against the White Sox.

The pitching matchup is Chris Archer versus Michael Kopech. Archer has pitched well with a 3.08 ERA, but he's not the strikeout pitcher he once was and he doesn't go deep into games. Kopech is a rising star with a 2.78 ERA, who has been held back by arm injuries. He's healthy now.

I guess the Braves have to be favored at home here in a pitching matchup of Cardinals rookie Andre Pallante versus Ian Anderson.

But based on the current form of these two starters, St. Louis is the team that should be a hefty favorite.

Pallante has been brilliant with a 2.10 ERA. His road ERA is even better at 1.31.

Anderson, on the other hand, has been terrible with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts. His home ERA this season is 6.28. The Braves are without their star closer, Kenley Jansen, too.

So you would be Thick as a Brick if you backed Ian Anderson in this spot.

Coming off a rare loss followed by a day off, the Yankees should be primed to bury the Pirates. New York has the best record in baseball. Pittsburgh is 15 games below .500. 

The Yankees go for their 15th win in their last 21 games with former Pirate Jameson Taillon on the mound. He's been outstanding this season with a 9-1 record and 3.32 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.70 when pitching on the road away from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Certainly Taillon won't lack motivation against his ex-team. 

Pittsburgh starter Jose Quintana has turned into a journeyman. The Pirates are his fourth team in the last three years. 

The Yankees have scored the second-most runs in the league. The Pirates rank 28th in runs. 

Nothing against Carlos Rodon, who has pitched well this season. But the Giants aren't playing nearly well enough right now to be laying this high of a price especially on the road.

The Giants, losers of 10 of their last 13 games, take on an old teammate, Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco is averaging a puny 2.6 runs in its last six games. Bumgarner has pitched his best at home, giving up two runs or less in seven of his eight home starts.

If you discount a 4-0 loss to the Padres, the Diamondbacks are averaging 7.8 runs during their last five games.

Certainly the Diamondbacks are capable of upsetting the Giants given San Francisco's struggles, but I'll lay a short price to have the insurance of 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Arizona would have a winning record in its last 18 games if given 1 1/2 runs.

The Brewers are back playing good ball winning six of their last eight games. They have proven trustworthy in this role going 29-11 the past 40 times at home when taking on a below .500 opponent. The Cubs have lost in eight of their last 10 games in Milwaukee. The rebuilding Cubs also have dropped nine of their last 12 road contests.

I give a starting pitching edge to Milwaukee in a matchup of Justin Steele (3-5, 4.39 ERA) versus Eric Lauer (6-3, 4.02 ERA). The Brewers get a huge bullpen checkmark. Milwaukee has a bullpen ERA of 3.54 compared to Chicago's bullpen ERA of 4.55.

The Brewers have the three best relievers with closer Josh Hader and setup men Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger. All have ERA's of 2.05 or less.

The Phillies have been bet up in this Sunday night ESPN matchup for good reason.

Zach Wheeler is pitching at home. Wheeler has a 1.85 home ERA this season. He's been at his best, too, in night games with a 2.06 ERA in evening games.

Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright is having a solid season, but he won't be throwing to his batterymate of 17 years with Yadier Molina out due to a knee injury. The Cardinals not only lose Molina's Hall of Fame-caliber defense, but his replacements can't hit. Rookie Ivan Herrera is batting .111 and Andrew Knizner is hitting .185. 

The Phillies are swinging hot bats, too, averaging 8.3 runs in their last three games. 

St. Louis has lost eight of its last 11 road games and has lost six of its past eight games in Philadelphia. 

Losers of three in a row, the Mets haven't dropped four straight games all season. I don't see it happening here. Neither does the oddsmaker, who has made the Mets close to a 2-to-1 favorite to beat the Rangers.

I see this as a kill spot for New York. So I'm going to knock down that heavy juice by backing the Mets on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs.

Why such confidence in the Mets? New York's last two defeats occurred to the powerful Astros. Discount those two games and the Mets would be 24-10 at home. Even with those two losses, the Mets still have won 13 of their last 17 home games.

New York is stepping well down in class facing the below .500 Rangers. Texas is stepping way up in class having played its last six games against the Royals and Nationals, whose combined record is 56-96.

I like the pitching matchup very much, too, It's Glenn Otto versus Chris Bassitt.

Otto has tailed off. He has a 5.31 ERA on the season. Otto's ERA during his last three games is even worse at 6.23. The Nationals got to him for six runs in two innings during his last start this past Sunday. The Mets rank fourth in runs. The Nationals are 24th in runs.

Bassitt has been steady especially when pitching at Citi Field where he has a 3.16 home ERA. Bassitt has a 2.53 ERA in his last three starts and lifetime against the Rangers is 5-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 appearances, including nine starts.

Laying a short price against the Reds on the road rarely is a bad thing even when the home team is the Cubs. 

Cincinnati is 14-25 on the road this season. The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games. 

The Cubs are 4-3 in their last seven games. During this span they are averaging 6.2 runs a game. 

So I feel confident backing the Cubs here. The pitching matchup is Reds rookie Graham Ashcraft versus crafty veteran Kyle Hendricks. 

Ashcraft has been impressive with a 4-1 record and 3.27 ERA. He limited the Giants to two runs in eight innings during his previous start this past Friday. Prior to that, however, Ashcraft was battered for 10 earned runs in his two previous starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. During that two-game time frame, Ashcraft gave up 17 hits, two walks and two homers. 

Hendricks also is coming off an excellent start. He threw 7 1/3 shutout innings against the Cardinals this past Friday. Hendricks' night ERA is a respectable 3.78. 
The weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing out at 10-13 mph. The savvy, experienced Hendricks is better equipped to deal with these elements than Ashcraft, who has never pitched at tricky Wrigley Field. 

The Astros are good. The Yankees are great. How great? The Yankees have matched the best 76-game start in the last 92 years. New York is seeking its 17th win in the last 21 games here.

It is rare to lay such a low price with the Yankees.

I like the pitching matchup for New York with Luis Severino versus Luis Garcia. Houston also is likely to be minus shortstop Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez, their leading power-hitter. Both were injured in a collision on Wednesday. Alvarez leads the Astros in homers and RBI's.

Severino is 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA. That ERA gets reduced to 3.13 if you count just his last six starts.

Garcia is 5-5 with a 3.68 ERA. He is more of a middle-to-bottom end rotation starter while Severino is talented enough to be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter especially if he were with a lesser team.

The Angels are getting desperate for starting pitching as they are bringing up Chase Silseth to start against the White Sox today. Silseth was sent to Double A after going 1-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Silseth was even worse at home posting a 5.20 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his two Anaheim starts.

On the flip side, Johnny Cueto isn't being given enough respect. Yes, Cueto is past his prime, but he's been highly productive especially on the road where he has a 1.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four away outings.

Cueto has a tremendous track record, too, against the Angels going 4-0 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in five lifetime starts.

The White Sox own a winning road record this season.

Tropicana Field, home of the Rays, is a strange and tough place to play. It's especially difficult for National League teams since they rarely go there. It's not a fluke the Rays have won 72 percent of their last 53 interleague home games.

Look for the Rays' offense to improve now that Wander Franco is back in the lineup.

The Rays are starting highly promising rookie Shane Baz. He's coming off a game against the powerful Yankees six days ago where he allowed one run in 4 2/3 innings. He has a 1.93 ERA at Tropicana Field.

Brandon Woodruff is set to make his first start for Milwaukee since May 27. He's been out with an ankle injury. Woodruff could be rusty and doesn't figure to go deep into the game.

The oddsmaker opened this total too high as I'd be surprised if there were more than seven runs scored. 

Philadelphia is without Bryce Harper. Atlanta could be without Ronald Acuna. But it's not just the absence of those two superstars. The pitching matchup is Charlie Morton versus Zach Wheeler. 

Wheeler has a 2.77 ERA. He's at his best when pitching at home where his ERA shrinks to 1.49. Wheeler had a 2.38 home ERA last season. The Braves are averaging three runs in their last three games. Wheeler faced the Braves on May 23. He allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings and struck out a season-high 10 batters.

Morton should hold up his end, too, based on current form, no Harper and the Phillies being slightly below average against righthanded pitching. 

Morton has been dominant in his last two starts giving up two earned runs in 14 innings. He's only allowed six hits during this span with 20 strikeouts and no walks. Morton has struck out 40 in his last four starts spanning 25 innings. 

Kansas City has the second-worst record in the American League in front of only Oakland. One reason for this is you have to go back to April 19-21 to find the last time the Royals won a home series. I don't see the Royals getting off to a good start in the opening game against the Rangers today.

It's a battle of lefty starters, Martin Perez versus Kris Bubic. That favors the Rangers more than the betting line shows.

Perez is having a career season with a 5.2 record and 1.96 ERA. Perez is in stellar form allowing just one run in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Kansas City ranks 27th in runs and homers.

Texas is 15-10 versus southpaws this season, including 7-1 the past eight times facing them. The Rangers should be in line for a strong offensive performance as Bubic has a 7.41 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 34 innings this season.

The Rangers have won in 10 of their last 14 visits to Kansas City.

This series has taken on added significance with Freddie Freeman returning to Atlanta. The Braves got past the Dodgers, 5-3, on Saturday. Prior to that, though, the Dodgers had won five of six, winning those games by an average of 4.8 runs.

LA has a huge edge in this matchup, not reflective of this short line with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus rookie Spencer Strider.

Gonsolin has been the Dodgers' best pitcher with a 9-0 record, 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The Dodgers are giving up the fewest runs per game, while scoring the most runs per game.

The league is starting to figure out Strider, who was clobbered for six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings against the Giants during his last start this past Tuesday.

Injuries to stud pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and more recently Aaron Ashby have taken a toll on the Brewers' starting rotation not to mention a hit on their won/lost record.

Except for an occasional long ball, Zach Davies has been pitching well posting a 2.36 ERA in his last four starts. He's also gone at least six innings during each of three past four starts. Look for Davis to fare well against a weak Tigers offense that ranks last in home runs and runs.

The Tigers won the first game of this series. Yet their road record is just 9-21.

The Diamondbacks should do damage as they draw Alex Faedo, who is 1-4 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

The Giants just concluded a frustrating series against the sizzling Braves where they lost three of four, all by one run. 

I see the Giants taking their frustrations out on the hapless Reds, who have the worst record in the National League, are 11-23 on the road and have lost seven in a row with six of those defeats occurring by more than one run. 

The oddsmaker sees things this way, too. So to avoid the heavy juice, I'm banking on the Giants to win by more than one run. 

Alex Cobb is due to pitch much better. The Reds have below average offensive numbers despite playing in an outstanding hitter's park. Cobb is backed by a far superior bullpen.

The Giants already have faced rookie pitcher Graham Ashcraft, seeing him late last month. Ashcraft pitched well against San Francisco back then. I'm not expecting a repeat. The Giants are averaging five runs per nine innings against righthanders. 

The Yankees are in their own tier in the American League. They are the best team in baseball with a .739 winning percentage. The Yankees are going for their 19th win in their last 22 games at home against the Astros. I see no reason not to get involved with the Yankees at this short home lay price. 

The Astros are good. But they aren't as strong as the Yankees. New York is first in runs scored. Houston ranks 17th. The Yankees have won 81 percent of their home games. They have won 11 of their last 16 home contests against Houston. 

Houston is going with Framber Valdez on the mound. I like Valdez. But I also like Yankees starter Jameson Taillon, who is having a huge season with an 8-1 record and 2.70 ERA. New York has better bullpen depth than the Astros, too. 

This represents a rare opportunity to back the Yankees at more than a fair price. 

The Pirates are the better team and are at home. So I'm perplexed as to why this line is inflated in the Cubs' favor. 

The pitching matchup pits lefties Justin Steele, who has a 4.27 ERA, against Pittsburgh's Jose Quintana, who has a 3.66 ERA and the added motivation of pitching against the team he played for from 2018-2020. 

The Cubs battered the Pirates, 14-5, on Wednesday. However, the Pirates won the first two games of the series by a combined 19-2. Pittsburgh is 4-3 in its last seven games. The Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 games. 

The Pirates are getting a spark from recently called-up talented young players such as Oneil Cruz and Bligh Madris. 

I don't see double-digit runs being produced in a pitching matchup of righties Kevin Gausman versus Dylan Cease.

Gausman is one of the better pitchers in the American League and Cease is very good, too, with a 2.91 ERA and ranking fifth in the league in strikeouts.

The White Sox hit righties much worse than they do lefties. Gausman is 1-0 lifetime against the White Sox with a 2.33 ERA in five appearances.

Both pitchers should get a major boost with Doug Eddings scheduled to be the home plate umpire. He's known for his generous strike zone. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of Eddings' home plate games during the last three years.

The Blue Jays hold a strong pitching edge with Jose Berrios going against Lance Lynn, who only will be making his second start of the season after being on the injured list. Lynn has a 6.23 ERA on the season and a 4.21 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in eight starts.  Berrios is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts. He is 12-5 lifetime against the White Sox with a 3.12 ERA in 21 starts.  The White Sox are traveling back home after losing the Sunday night game on the road to the Astros. The Blue Jays are off a huge Sunday victory against the Yankees. The Blue Jays have the superior offense and better starting pitcher going. So the price is ripe to back them. 

I'm going with plus price value in this one. Both teams are hot. The Braves are 15-2 in their last 17 games, although the two losses occurred during their recent series against the lowly Cubs. The Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games.

The pitching matchup is a good one - Logan Webb versus lefty Max Fried.

The Giants are 13-6 against southpaw starters. Webb is 2-0 lifetime against the Braves with a 1.35 ERA in three starts.

You know the Royals must be playing a really bad opponent with a terrible starting pitcher to be installed as road favorites in this range. 

Well, they are: Oakland.

Dumpster fire is too kind of a description to call the A's at home. Oakland is 3-22 in its last 25 home games, including losing its last eight. The A's have lost 15 of 17 overall, which now gives them the worst record in baseball with a .333 winning percentage. 

Still think this price is too high to lay?

I certainly don't with a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Jared Koenig. 

Singer is 3-1 with a 4.24 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 3.38 when he pitches on the road. Singer has had only one horrendous start this season. That came against the Astros, a far stronger hitting club than the A's, who rank in the bottom-two in runs, batting average and homers. Oakland has been shut out in 12 percent of its games. 

Koenig has made two starts spanning a total of eight innings. He's allowed 14 hits, including two homers, and four walks during this span for an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. 

The Royals have shown improvement lately unlike the A's, winning five of their last nine games. 

I'm attracted to getting the better team at a plus price especially when the underdog holds a pitching edge. That's the case in this Cardinals-Red Sox game.

Dakota Hudson goes against Kutter Crawford. Hudson doesn't excite anyone because he's not a strikeout pitcher. But Hudson is solid and he's backed by a strong fielding Cardinals team. Hudson has 2.28 ERA in night games this season. He hasn't permitted a home run during his last six starts.

Crawford has a 5.74 ERA. The youngster is coming off a career-high 83 pitches in his last start. Crawford hadn't thrown more than 50 pitches in his big league career.

I don't feel the Brewers should be underdogs to the Mets here. I see no starting pitching edge to the Mets with Andrian Houser facing Chris Bassitt. The Brewers hold a big advantage on the mound in the later innings with setup man Devin Williams and ace closer Josh Hader. 

Look for Julio Urias to come in with a big game to keep the Giants from sweeping the Dodgers. Urias has a 2.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has a 2.41 lifetime ERA against the Giants in 21 games, including 15 starts.

Urias rates a stronger edge on Giants starter Carlos Rodon than the betting line indicates.

Rodon started hot, but has tailed off. He has a 3.77 ERA in his last three starts in which he's given up 17 hits and six walks during this span. The Dodgers lead the majors in runs averaging 5.2 per game.

Rodon is 0-2 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Both teams are swinging hot bats and going against bad pitchers here. The temperature sets up well, too, for a high scoring game with the thermometer expected to reach into the 90's. 

The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in six of their last nine games. Kansas City is averaging 6.7 runs in its last four games. 

Dean Kremer starts for Baltimore. He has a 6.23 ERA. That ERA is actually below his career mark of 7.84. He has a 1.80 WHIP. Why is he in a big league rotation? Good question. 

The Royals are starting Brad Keller, who is 1-7 with a 4.19 ERA. That ERA balloons to 6.31 if you go by his last six starts.

Both bullpens are well below average. 

I respect the Twins. But I want Gerrit Cole and the Yankees going for me off an 8-1 loss on Wednesday. The way to get it without laying monster juice is back the Yankees on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. 

The Cardinals are trying to avoid a sweep here. The pitching matchup is Miles Mikolas versus lefty Shane McClanahan.

I like the Cardinals' chances of hanging in with Mikolas, who has had nine of 10 good starts this season. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 80 percent of his starts. Mikolas has a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

McClanahan has pitched well, too, this season. This isn't a play against him, but taking 1 1/2 runs on what I believe is an inflated Rays' price.

The Cardinals have won 20 of their last 27 games against a southpaw starter. If given 1 1/2 runs, St. Louis would be 14-6 in its last 20 games.

Gerrit Cole may not even be the best pitcher on the Yankees. Nestor Cortes is 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He has a 68-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cortes gets the start against Chris Archer as the Yankees try for their eighth straight victory.

Archer has a respectable 3.89 ERA. But note that his last four starts have come against very weak-hitting teams - Tigers twice, Royals and A's. The last time Archer faced a strong offense was five starts ago against the Astros. Houston got to him for five runs (four earned) in just three innings before he was pulled.

Archer hasn't pitched well at home either with a 5.00 ERA.

Dangerous at home, weak on the road. That's always been the Rockies' style and it's the same this year. Colorado has lost 20 of its last 27 games and is a dreadful 7-15 away from Coors Field.

Things don't figure to improve in this series opener with disappointing German Marquez facing lefty Carlos Rodon.

Marquez is 1-5 with a 6.71 ERA. He's in terrible form with a 7.94 ERA in his last three starts. Marquez has made 14 career starts against the Giants and is 4-8 against them with a 7.19 ERA.

Rodon faced the Rockies on May 9. He held them to two runs on six hits in six innings while posting a season-high 12 strikeouts. Colorado is 1-6 the last seven times going against a southpaw starter.

San Francisco has dominated Colorado going 20-5 since the start of last season. The Giants have won 12 of the last 13 meetings.

The Mets have the best record in the National League at 37-19. However, they are just 9-9 against lefty starters. Going back long-term, the Mets are 21-45 against a southpaw starter during their last 66 road games.

Here the Mets draw Padres lefty Blake Snell.

The Mets may be in letdown mode after just concluding a high profile four-game series against the Dodgers by nipping LA in extra innings on Sunday.

Carolos Carrasco gets the start for New York. He has a 5.06 road ERA and is off his highest pitch count during his last five starts.

The Padres have scored 17 runs in their last three games against a strong Brewers pitching staff.

Adam Wainwright is 40. But he's shown no signs of slowing down with a winning record and 2.75 ERA. Wainwright faces lefty Justin Steele, who has a 5.40 ERA and has lost his last five decisions. The Cardinals saw Steele last September and got to him for six runs in five innings.

St. Louis is 19-7 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter.

The Cardinals are the deeper and superior team to the Cubs. They are better equipped all the way around to win the fifth game of this series after Saturday's doubleheader.

St. Louis has defeated the Cubs in seven of the past nine games at Wrigley Field.

The White Sox are terrible in the role of road underdog. That's the position they find themselves in today against the Rays. The White Sox have lost 41 of the past 53 times (23 percent) as an away underdog.

The White Sox are in bad form, too, losing seven of their last nine games. Tampa Bay has won three in a row.

Rays starter Drew Rasmussen has been solid with a 5-2 mark and 3.47 ERA. Chicago's Dylan Cease is a big strikeout pitcher, who can dominate weaker lineups but has problems against good offenses. The Yankees and Red Sox, for instance, got to him for 13 runs in a combined seven innings. Cease also walks too many batters.

At 37-15, the Yankees have the best record in baseball. They just pounded the Tigers, 13-0, on Friday. Expect more of the same Saturday so I have no qualms about laying New York on the run line as the Yankees go for their ninth win in their last 11 games.

The Yankees hold both a strong hitting and pitching edge. New York leads the majors in homers and ranks fifth in runs. The Tigers aren't likely to slow down the Yankees' powerful attack starting rookie Beau Brieske. He is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Brieske has permitted 10 homers in seven starts.

Yankees starter Luis Severino has looked good on his comeback trail. He's 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA. The Yankees are 7-2 in Severino's starts this season with all the victories except one coming by more than one run.

Detroit is last in runs and homers. The Tigers are averaging 2.81 runs a game, which is the lowest in the majors since 1968. Detroit has been even worse on the road averaging 2.2 runs away from home.

Brady Singer has been pitching well. Houston starter Jose Urquidy is inconsistent, either very good or very bad.

But this price is low enough to get involved with the Astros against the worst team in baseball. That team is Kansas City.

The spot isn't good either for the 16-33 Royals. This is their first home game back following a 2-7 road trip.

The Astros are 22-7 in their last 29 games. They have defeated the Royals 14 of the past 20 times and are 8-3 against them the last 11 times in Kansas City.

The Royals have never faced Urquidy giving him the surprise element.

Kansas City has lost 10 of the last 11 times it has been a home 'dog.

The Cardinals are much superior to the Cubs. The records bear this out. St. Louis is 29-22, while Chicago is the opposite at 22-29.

The Cubs edged the Cardinals, 7-5, on Thursday. But I don't see Chicago beating St. Louis again.

The Cardinals have won five of the last six at Wrigley Field. St. Louis is 35-16 in its last 51 road games. The Cubs are 4-23 in their last 27 home games when taking on an above .500 opponent.

The pitching matchup is Miles Mikolas versus Marcus Stroman. That favors St. Louis, too. Mikolas has a 1.54 road ERA. Stroman has struggled at Wrigley Field with an 0-2 record and 6.28 home ERA.

Corey Kluber isn't likely to ever win a third Cy Young Award. But he's shaken off injuries to become respectable. Kluber is a good fit for the Rays. He's been solid this season in nine starts with a 4.03 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP.

I give Kluber and the superior Rays a much bigger edge than the oddsmaker finding this lay price to be 25-30 cents lower than it should be.

The Rays are banged-up, but they have excellent depth. They also get to face Taylor Hearn, who probably shouldn't be in a big league rotation.

Making the conversion from bullpen to starter, Hearn has made nine starts. The numbers aren't pretty - a 5.36 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.

Kluber handled a much tougher Yankees lineup in his last start, holding them to one run on three hits in six hits. The Rangers rank 21st in batting average. The bottom of their order is weak and they could have the most disappointing hitter in the majors this season, Marcus Semien.

Semien smacked 45 homers last year while batting .265 for the Blue Jays. He's been an utter bust so far with the Rangers hitting .193 with one homer.

The A's are an embarrassment at home where they are 7-20 and drawing fewer than 4,000 fans. 

Oakland is 1-5 in its last six games and must deal with an angry Justin Verlander, off his worst start of the season. Verlander gave up six runs on 10 hits in a 6-1 loss to the Mariners this past Friday. Verlander entered that game riding a 19-inning scoreless streak with a major league-best 1.22 ERA. 

Verlander is 14-7 lifetime against the A's with a 2.90 ERA, although he last faced them in 2019. Look for Verlander to bounce back and dominate a weak A's lineup that ranks in the bottom three in the major offensive categories. 

Cole Irvin gets the start for Oakland. He hasn't pitched badly this season, but has an 0-3 career-mark against Houston with a 7.40 ERA in four starts. 
The A's went 10-21 in May. Each of their last 13 losses have been by more than one run. So I feel confident laying a reasonable number on the run line in order to reduce the heavy juice. 

I'm not sure why, but Luis Castillo still commands some respect from the oddsmaker. Otherwise why else would the Reds only be midsized road underdogs? 

 So I find this to be that rare spot where there is value on the home favorite.  The Reds have the worst road record in the majors at 7-19. They have the worst pitching in the league and rank 26th in batting. Cincinnati is below average in just about every offensive category.  

The Red Sox rank third in batting and have scored the fifth most runs. I don't see Castillo, an underachiever given his high ceiling, stopping Boston at Fenway Park. Castillo is off to a slow start again this season with a 1-2 record and 4.35 ERA.  

Boston is off an embarrassing, 10-0, Memorial Day home loss to the Orioles yesterday. The Red Sox certainly shouldn't lack motivation following that stinker. Before that loss, though, the Red Sox were 9-3 in their last 12 games while averaging 8.6 runs during their previous five games. The Red Sox have won the opening game in five of their last six series. 

Boston starter Michael Wacha has looked good with a 3-0 record and 2.83 ERA. He dominated the Reds during his years with the Cardinals going 12-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 23 career appearances.  

Perception doesn't match reality here.

The perception is the defending world champion Braves are good and the Diamondbacks, losers of 110 games last year, are terrible. This isn't right.

Atlanta is 23-25. Arizona is 23-26. Note, too, that nine of Arizona's losses have occurred to the Dodgers, who have the best lineup in baseball. The Diamondbacks are 18-13 outside of the NL West Division.

Not only are the Diamondbacks home, but they have a huge edge in starting pitchers with rookie Spencer Strider opposing Zac Gallen. This will be Strider's first big league start. His 11 appearances this season have all come in relief.

Gallen has been an underrated monster this season. He's made eight starts. All have been excellent except one. Gallen has held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in six starts and two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts. Gallen has a 2.22 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.

Gallen faced the Braves once last season - his only appearance against them - and tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. The Diamondbacks are much better this season while the Braves have yet to get in gear.

It's not difficult envisioning each team scoring at least four runs in a pitching matchup of Jonathan Heasley versus Zach Plesac especially on a muggy day with the wind blowing out at 12-14 mph.

 The righthanded Heasley has a 4.73 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7-to-13. The Guardians hit righties much better than lefties.  Plesac has regressed this season with a 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. The Royals have gone Over the past eight times they've faced a righty starter.  Kansas City has been hot offensively, too, scoring six or more runs in four of their last seven games while producing five runs during another game in this span. 
 

The Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series. But I see the Angels winning this home game in a pitching matchup of Michael Lorenzen against lefty Yusei Kikuchi.

The Angels traditionally are a strong home team. That's the case so far this season as they are 12-5 in their last 17 home contests.

The Angels also have done well versus lefties. They went 30-25 versus southpaw starters last year and are 8-5 against them this season.

Kikuchi is having a good season, but he has a bad history versus the Angels with a 1-4 record and 10.92 ERA in seven previous starts against them.

Lorenzen has his confidence up after consecutive strong starts giving up just one run during the past 13 innings.

The Blue Jays' dangerous lineup has underachieved this season - up until now. Toronto is averaging seven runs in its last two games.

The Blue Jays got to Shohei Ohtani for five earned runs in six innings, including smacking two homers, in a 6-3 victory against the Angels Thursday night. Now Toronto draws rookie Chase Silseth.

Silseth has a 2.61 ERA during his first two big league starts. Both of those starts, though, were against the weak-hitting A's, who are last in batting average and second-from-the-bottom in runs.

But what really attracts me to Toronto is the low lay price with Alek Manoah pitching. He just may be the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Manoah hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during any of his eight starts this season. His 1.62 ERA is the third-lowest in the majors.

The Brewers have trouble with the Cardinals losing eight of the past 11 times to them. Perhaps the Brewers' biggest strength is the backend of their bullpen with closer Josh Hader and setup man Devin Williams.

However, neither of those two are likely to play. Hader has been on family medical emergency leave. This has forced Williams to pitch in three straight games for the first time this season.

So the Brewers need lefty Eric Lauer to pitch deep into the game. Lauer has pitched well with a 2.16 ERA. He's not that good, though, so regression is due. The Cardinals also hit lefties well. St. Louis ranks No. 1 in weighted on base average versus southpaws. Lauer has to deal with a pair of tough righthanded bats in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright continues to defy time. He has a 2.87 ERA. He's given up only three runs in 20 innings this month.

I see the visiting Guardians hanging close to the Astros in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Christian Javier.

I like Javier but he could be due for some regression with a 2.87 ERA. His ERA the past two seasons have been 3.55 and 3.48.

Quantrill is a decent middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.48 ERA. He's second on the Guardians in quality starts. He can be counted on to go at least six innings, which he has done in each of his last six starts.

This is important because while the Indians have a strong closer, Emmanuel Clase, they are vulnerable in middle relief. The Guardians have the least amount of blown saves in the league.

Enough is enough. I want the Giants off an embarrassing 13-3 home loss to the Mets with their best pitcher, Logan Webb, going for them.

The Mets have been a nice surprise, but their offense lacks consistency. They ranked 21st in homers and have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last eight games.

Webb was brilliant last season with a 2.97 ERA. The Giants have won six of his eight starts this season. Webb is at his best pitching at home where he has a 3.13 ERA. He's only given up two homers in his eight starts.

Mets starter Chris Bassitt is a decent starter. But he's not in Webb's elite class.

The Cubs are in rebuild mode, but they still are five games better than the Reds, who have the worst record in baseball.

Both starters, Marcus Stroman and Tyler Mahle, are off strong performances and pitching better. I give an edge to Stroman, though, who is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati. Mahle has a 5.23 ERA, still striving for consistency at the big league level. He has a 3.56 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in 13 starts.

The Cubs have the superior offense and a much stronger bullpen.

The Phillies and Braves have been disappointing so far this season, each holding a 19-22 record. Atlanta has a losing home record. 

The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler against lefty Tucker Davidson. The Phillies have a winning mark versus southpaws and a huge starting pitching edge. So at this price I'm on Philadelphia. 

Wheeler is one of the better pitchers in the National League. He's in an excellent groove, too, with a 1-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He has a 23-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. 

Davidson has a 5.87 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings this season. Career-wise when pitching in Atlanta, Davidson has a 7.36 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. 

I really like Toronto starter Alex Manoah, who is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA. Reds starter Hunter Greene has potential, but I don't think he's ready to be in a major league rotation yet. Even throwing 7 1/3 innings of no-hit ball against the Pirates last Sunday, Greene still is 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA.

The Reds are 6-18 on the road. That's the most away losses in the majors.

Toronto has won 25 of its last 36 home games.

The Tigers have lost 12 of their last 15 road games and traditionally struggle at Cleveland losing 38 of the last 50 times there.

Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is 0-2 lifetime against the Guardians with a 5.94 ERA. This includes a 9.95 ERA in two starts at Progressive Field.

Cleveland starter Aaron Civale was solid last season with a 12-5 record and 3.84 ERA in 21 starts. He's off to a slow start this season, but is 6-0 career-wise against the Tigers with a 2.19 ERA in seven starts.

I'm anticipating a pitching matchup of Tyler Mahle versus Cal Quantrill. They were the scheduled pitchers in Wednesday's game that was rained out. But this is an action play for me as I want to fade the Reds on the road. 

The Giants are not a team I usually like to go against. But this overinflated line puts me on the home underdog Rockies in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus Chad Kuhl.

Kuhl has pitched much better than expected this season. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA. Cobb is a middle-of-the-rotation type.

The Rockies have produced 33 runs in their last four home games. They play and hit much better at Coors Field.

The Giants have had the Rockies' number winning 11 in a row against them. But I see that streak ending here.

If there's any explanation why the Red Sox opened a favorite against the Astros, I'm all ears. Because I sure don't see it. 

OK, the game is in Boston. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has pitched well for much of the season so far. But these factors don't come nearly close enough to bridge the gap between the Astros and Boston. The Astros are superior in every category.

The records bear this out. So does current form. Houston is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Boston is 6-14 in its last 20 games. 

Both starters, Jake Odorizzi and Whitlock, are right-handed. The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games versus a righty starter. The Red Sox are 9-19 in their last 28 games when facing a righty starter. 

Odorizzi isn't splashy. He's just a solid veteran, who has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. 

Whitlock, a converted reliever, has a 4.09 ERA in his last three starts. Only once has he even pitched into the fifth inning this season.

The Rockies are underpriced here just like they were on Saturday when they smacked the Royals, 10-4. 

Kansas City has lost 12 of its last 17 road games. The Royals are much inferior to the Rockies offensively at Coors Field. 

The Royals rank in the bottom five in many major offensive categories. Colorado is averaging 6.3 runs in its last 11 home games. 

The Rockies hold a starting pitching edge with Austin Gomber facing the Royals' Daniel Lynch. 

I believe the Rockies should be around 20 cents higher, so I'm on Colorado. 

The records don't reflect it yet. But Boston is superior to Texas. The buy sign is on the Red Sox as a 'dog after they beat the Rangers, 7-1, Friday night.

Texas is a false favorite in a pitching matchup of Rich Hill versus Glenn Otto. Hill still is effective when healthy as evidenced by his 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in five starts. He is 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers.

The Rangers have been terrible when favored, losing 11 of the last 14 times in that role.

The Tigers got past the Orioles in the series opener. That was just Detroit's second win in its last 11 games. The Tigers have won consecutive games just twice all season.

Baltimore has the better starting pitcher going here. So I'm going to ride with the Orioles.

Orioles southpaw Bruce Zimmermann is one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League with a 2-1 record and 2.67 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or less in five of his six starts.

The Tigers are going with veteran Michael Pineda, who is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA. He's a middle-of-the-rotation type starter at best.

The Tigers are 5-13 at home this season and 3-7 against lefties.

The long baseball season produces many ups and downs. After a 15-8 start, the Blue Jays are on a down cycle losing seven of their last nine games, including four in a row. The Blue Jays are struggling mentally, too, following an emotional and frustrating road series against the Yankees.

I don't see things picking up for the Blue Jays as they now have to travel to Tampa to face the Rays.

The Blue Jays opened as road favorites because they are pitching Kevin Gausman. The Rays, though, have a good starting pitcher going, too, in Drew Rasumussen. He's an underrated 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA. Rasmussen has given up just two earned runs in winning his last three starts.

Gausman has a 4.00 lifetime ERA against the Rays in 17 appearances. Rasmussen has a career-mark of 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three appearances versus the Blue Jays.

The White Sox have won seven of their last eight games. But that is trumped by the Yankees going 15-2 in their last 17 games. 

So I'm going to take this plus price on the Yankees, who have defeated the White Sox seven of the last eight times they've faced them. 

The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease versus Luis Gil, but this is an action play for me as I respect both pitchers.

Cease has a 2.38 ERA. However, Cease is 0-1 with a 7.71 career ERA against the Yankees in two starts.

Gil had a 3.07 ERA in six starts last season with 38 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. This is Gil's first start this season. The White Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. 

Surprised the Mariners are a favorite? Don't be Chris Flexen is a strong home pitcher.

The Phillies are 3-12 the past 15 times they've been 'dogs.

It's a bad situational spot for the Phillies, too, traveling to the West Coast after playing a Sunday doubleheader at home. The Phillies' bullpen carries a fatigue rating and their scheduled starter, Ranger Suarez, isn't very good. He's a bottom of the rotation type with a 4.63 ERA. 

Seattle went 46-35 at home last season and this year they are 8-5 as hosts. 

Nothing against Marlins starter Pablo Lopez, who I like. But at this low price, I'm getting involved with the Padres at home.

Miami has lost six in a row. The Marlins have scored more than four runs just once in their last seven games. They are facing southpaw Sean Manaea here. Miami is batting below .200 versus lefties.

Miami is 19-48 in its last 67 road games.

Shane McClanahan and lefty Robbie Ray are big strikeout pitchers. But this total is too low especially with the bullpens expected to pitch at least one-third of the way.

The Rays have a top-10 offense. They have scored 19 runs in their last three games. The Over is 7-1-1 the last nine times the Rays have faced a lefty starter.

The Mariners scored just two runs in getting swept three games by the Astros.

Seattle, though, was hitting into tough luck. The Mariners hitters were working the count well to set up positive situations, but a number of their hard hit balls against the Astros were right at fielder's. I expect their luck to change for the better here.

I have this one marked much higher. I don't believe the oddsmaker is giving the Rockies and their starting pitcher, Antonio Senzatela, enough respect here.

The right-handed Senzatela has proven he can pitch well at Coors Field. Colorado is 10-3 during the last 13 games he's pitched there. He has a 3.12 ERA in this span. The Nationals have lost 25 of the last 36 games they've gone against a righty starter.

Washington starter Aaron Sanchez hasn't been good for years - and he's not good this season with a 6.75 ERA.

The Rockies' strength is beating bad teams at home. That was proven again this past weekend when Colorado swept three games from the Reds. Now the Rockies get another bad team, the Nationals, and get to face a horrible starting pitcher - Erick Fedde.

Colorado starter German Marquez is due for a good game. The same can't be said for Fedde, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Fedde had a 5.47 ERA last season and he's been even worse this year with a 6.00 ERA.

Fedde is 0-2 career-wise against the Rockies with a 9.00 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. He hasn't gone more than five innings during any of his four starts this season so a bad Washington bullpen also figures to be involved.

Washington defeated the Giants in their last game this past Sunday. Prior to that, however, the Nationals had dropped nine of their last 10 games.

After playing six games in Florida, the Mariners remain on the road crisscrossing to Houston. 

I don't like the Mariners' chances against the Astros. The price is short enough for me to back Houston.

I'm not enamored with Houston's veteran starter Jake Odorizzi. But I am interested in fading Seattle lefty starter Marco Gonzales at homer-friendly Minute Maid Park. Gonzalez surrendered 29 homers last season. He's given up four so far this season. Houston is 7-2 versus southpaw starters this year.

Jose Altuve is expected to come off the IL and start for the Astros.