| MLB Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 07-23-17 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Indians | 1-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
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This is not a fade on Corey Kluber, who is in great form and one of the five best pitchers in baseball. But Kluber is pitching on extra rest after experiencing a stiff neck during his last start on July 15. Kluber also has more trouble against the Blue Jays than any other team with a 1-3 lifetime record and 5.34 ERA in five career starts. Cleveland actually has lost in four of Kluber's last five starts. The Indians have a losing record at home and haven't swept an opponent at Progressive Field all season. Toronto starter southpaw J.A. Happ is pitching on four days rest. The Blue Jays are 16-5 the past 21 times when Happ has pitched on four days rest. Happ is pitching well with a 2.43 ERA during his last seven starts. Happ is 3-1 career-wise versus Cleveland with a 2.86 ERA in six appearances, including five starts. The Blue Jays are going through a disappointing season, but they would be 5-2 in their last seven games if given 1 1/2 runs. Cleveland would be 2-7 in its last nine games if laying 1 1/2 runs.
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| 07-23-17 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
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Corey Kluber is an absolute monster, one of the five best pitchers in baseball. Kluber is in great form, too, with a 1.56 ERA in his last nine starts since returning from the DL. Opposing hitters are batting .160 against him during this span. Kluber also has a mind-boggling 94 strikeouts in 63 1/3 innings in this time frame, walking only 11. Kluber is being opposed by southpaw J.A. Happ, who has a 2.43 ERA during his last seven starts. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs during these outings. Happ has a lifetime 2.86 ERA against the Indians in six appearances, including five starts. The under is 18-7-3 (72 percent) in Happ's past 28 road starts. The under has cashed 13 of the past 19 times the Indians have faced a lefty starter at home. This can be partially explained by the Indians being weaker against lefties than righties. These teams have a history of playing below the total when meeting with nine of the last 11 in the series going under. Because it's Sunday there's also a possibility of regular players getting a day off. The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing in.
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| 07-22-17 | Rangers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
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The Rays lost a tough one at home to the Rangers Friday. I expect them to bounce back strong today with Chris Archer on the mound. So does the oddsmaker. I'm not going to lay that high vig, but I want the Rays going for me today so I'm playing them on the run line at a plus price. Archer has had eight quality starts in his last 11 outings. He pitches deep into games, too, going at least six innings during his past 11 starts. This is important because the Rays bullpen, while strong at the end, are vulnerable in middle relief. Tampa Bay has won seven of Archer's last 10 home starts. The Rangers' current linup is batting just .206 career-wise against Archer. The free-swinging Rangers are a bad fit against Archer, who ranks fourth in the majors in strikeouts. Look for the Rays to go to town against Andrew Cashner, who is 2-6 with a 4.33 ERA on the road this season. The Rangers have dropped seven of their past nine road games when Cashner has started. The Rays have hit the fourth-most homers in baseball and rank in the top five when going against righthanded pitchers.
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| 07-22-17 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
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Try not to be misled by the Padres' 12-9 victory against the Giants last night. These are two weak-hitting teams playing in a pitcher's park. I expect far less fireworks this afternoon. San Diego ranks last in runs and batting average. The Giants have hit the fewest homers in the majors and are second-to-last in runs. Padres starter Luis Perdomo has a career 2.81 ERA in four outings at AT&T Park. Until last night's game, the Padres' bullpen had a 1.77 ERA against the Giants in 33 1/3 innings this season. San Diego has some underrated setup men. Giants starter att Moore has been a major disappointment this season. Moore pitches far better at spacious AT&T Park, though, with a 4.20 home ERA compared to 7.61 on the road. He finally pitched a strong game in his last outing holding the Indians to two earned runs in seven innings. So maybe Moore is ready to turn the corner at last. Slated home plate umpire Jeff Nelson has been involved in more unders than overs this year.
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| 07-21-17 | Yankees v. Mariners +115 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
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I like the Mariners as a home 'dog here in a matchup of righty Andrew Moore versus over-the-hill lefty CC Sabathia. Moore has walked just two batters in 24 innings. He's prone to the long ball, but will be helped pitching in spacious Safeco Field. The Yankees have lost 17 of the past 23 times when facing a righty starter. The Mariners have a winning mark versus southpaws and the offense to do damage against Sabathia. I don't like the Yankees when they play on the West Coast where they are 2-6 this season. The Yankees also have a major concern at closer where Aroldis Chapman hasn't looked right since returning from the DL following rotator cuff inflammation. Chapman has a 5.93 ERA in his last 13 1/2 innings giving up 18 hits and eight walks during this span. His fastball has lost steam and is secondary pitches haven't been consistent.
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| 07-20-17 | Rangers +103 v. Orioles | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
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The Orioles have outscored the Rangers, 25-4, in winning the first three games of this home series. That's why the Orioles opened a favorite today against Texas. They shouldn't have. Not with Cole Hamels going for the Rangers and Wade Miley pitching for Baltimore. Hamels has it all over Miley in this battle of southpaws. The Orioles have a losing record versus lefty starters. Now they have to deal with Hamels, the hottest pitcher in baseball. Hamels hasn't allowed a run in 21 straight innings. The Rangers are 19-9 in his past 28 road starts. Miley began the year with a 2.82 ERA in his first 11 starts. The career journeyman was in line for a serious regression - and it has happened. During his last eight starts, Miley has posted a 10.19 ERA. He has a 1.80 WHIP on the season and a bad track record against the Rangers with a career mark of 1-5 and 5.75 ERA.
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| 07-19-17 | Nationals -121 v. Angels | 0-7 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
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Much better team and a superior pitcher going puts me on the Nationals at this low lay price. Washington is 21 games above .500 - and that's with the worst bullpen in the majors. The Nationals have Gio Gonzalez going and a fortified bullpen with the additions of Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. The Nationals have won six in a row. The Angels are four games below .500, have lost seven of their past 10 and pitching minor leaguer Alex Meyer. The Nationals are the second-best hitting team in baseball. Meyer has control problems. That's not a good combination. Gonzalez is having his best season since 2012 when he went 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA. He's 8-4 this season with a 2.66 ERA and ranks 17th in strikeouts. Mike Trout only is 1-for-11 lifetime against Gonzalez with six strikeouts. Bryce Harper is supposed to get a day off, but the Angels will be without their leadoff hitter, Cameron Maybin, who suffered a sprained knee last night and will be out at least a couple of weeks.
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| 07-19-17 | Yankees v. Twins +101 | 1-6 | Win | 101 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
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Neither Jordan Montgomery nor Jose Berrios have been in good form recently. But Berrios is the better pitcher, the Twins opened as home 'dogs and the spot is ripe to go against the Yankees here. New York beat Minnesota last night, but is just 10-21 in its last 31 games. The Yankees are 1-9 following a victory. They have lost five of Montgomery's past seven road starts. The Yankees are excited about acquiring Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox on Tuesday. That's a great move for them, but that buzz is a distraction for this game. Berrios is a stud prospect. He's been tremendous at home this season going 4-1 with a 2.86 ERA. The Twins are 9-4 in his last 13 starts. Montgomery doesn't have Berrios' high ceiling. He has a 5.27 ERA in his last three starts giving up 18 hits and four walks in 13 2/3 innings during this span,
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| 07-18-17 | Cubs -110 v. Braves | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
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It took up until the All-Star break, but the Cubs are finally coming on. Chicago is unbeaten since the All-Star Game going 4-0. The Cubs have won their past five road contests and are 15-6 on the season versus lefty starters, including winning their last seven against southpaws. Atlanta is pitching rookie lefty Sean Newcomb. He looked good during his first four big league starts, but the league has figured him out. Newcomb has made two starts this month and is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA giving up 11 runs in 7 1/3 innings. The Braves are playing with a thin bullpen having just recalled hitters Sean Rodriguez and Danny Santana. They are missing injured setup man Arodys Vizcaino, perhaps their most talented reliever. The Cubs are averaging 7.7 runs in their last four games. Veteran John Lackey gets the start for Chicago. Lackey is having a down season bothered by right foot plantar fascitis. But he has the veteran savvy and a better bullpen going for him that Newcomb lacks. Lackey also has a 2.59 career ERA versus the Braves in four starts.
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| 07-18-17 | Nationals v. Angels OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
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Like a bad penny, Edwin Jackson keeps turning up on big league rosters. The 33-year-old Jackson has pitched for 12 major league teams. Now he's back with the Nationals, a team he pitched for in 2012, following the loss of Joe Ross for the season. The washed up Jackson had an ERA of nearly 6.00 last season pitching for the Marlins and Padres. His ERA this season is 7.20 before the Orioles designated him for assignment where he was picked up by Washington. The Nationals' bullpen ranks last with a 5.31 ERA. The Nationals also are going to have to deal with Mike Trout, who is back after missing 39 games due to a thumb injury. Angels starter Jesse Chavez is 5-10 with a 4.99. He's in such terrible form that the Angels can't be backed here against Jackson. Chavez has a 6.00 ERA in his last six starts. He's allowed 33 hits, including five homers, during his last 30 innings. The Nationals have the second-best offense in baseball behind only the Astros. The will be a wind of about eight mph blowing out to left.
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| 07-18-17 | Rays v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
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Not only do we have two bad pitchers here - Blake Snell versus Chris Smith - but the wind blowing out to right at 15 mph and Bill Welke set to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed 65 percent of the time Welke has been the home plate ump during the last three years at 47-25. Snell is 0-5 with a 4.85 ERA in 10 starts this year. He's given up 34 walks in 52 innings. The over has cashed in six of Snell's past seven starts. Tampa Bay has hit the third-most homers in baseball and draws Smith, a career minor leaguer and coverted reliever. The 36-year-old Smith has made only one career big league start. He entered this season with a 4.58 career ERA in 63 relief appearances. Smith only is drawing the start because Jharel Cotton is on the DL. Until this season, Smith hadn't been in the big leagues since 2010. Smith doesn't expect to pitch deep into the game and the A's bullpen suffered a huge hit after trading Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle to the Nationals.
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| 07-17-17 | Rays -101 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
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Neither starting pitcher is in good form although both teams have been playing well lately. I just believe it's worth it to get involved with the Rays, the superior team who also have the veteran starter going. Oakland is in full rebuilt mode. The A's just got considerably weaker in their bullpen dealing Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nationals for struggling reliever Blake Treinen and minor league prospects. Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi has a 4.63 ERA and is prone to the long ball. He'll be helped here pitching in the spacious Oakland Coliseum. A's rookie starter Daniel Gossett has a 6.23 ERA. He's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA when pitching at home. Gossett also is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in his last three starts.
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| 07-17-17 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
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The Tigers are average offensively. The Royals are well below average offensively - ranking 26th in runs - but are the top fielding team in the American League. The total has been bet up. I'm not buying into that especially with Jason Vargas pitching for the Royals. He has the best home ERA in the AL at 1.84. The under has cashed in 10 of his last 13 starts at Kauffman Stadium. The more difficult part of this Under equation is Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann. He's not in good form with a .9.95 ERA in his last three starts. Zimmermann, though, is a better pitcher than that and he has great career numbers against the Royals with a 1.44 ERA in four career starts versus them. That ERA shrinks even more to 1.04 if you go back just to last season.
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| 07-16-17 | Diamondbacks -106 v. Braves | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
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Zack Godley is an under-the-radar starter with a 2.58 ERA in 11 starts. That's the lowest ERA among Arizona's starters, which include strikeout studs Zach Greinke and Robbie Ray. Godley hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his starts this season. Arizona is 4-1 in Godley's past five road starts. Godley is in much better current form than Atlanta starter Jaime Garcia. Godley has yielded four runs in his last two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. He's given up five hits with 13 strikeouts during this time frame. Godley, a native of South Carolina, will have extra motivation with many of his family and friends making the trip to Atlanta to watch him today. The much injury-prone Garcia could be nearing the end at 31. He has a 9.41 ERA in his last four starts with opponents batting .333 against him during this span. Garcia hasn't won during his past seven starts. The Diamondbacks rank seventh in runs scored. They should be even better offensively now that star outfielder A.J. Pollock is back in the lineup. The Braves have surprised with their offense because they have been merely average - ranking 16th in runs scored - instead of near the bottom. They are not a top-seven offense, though, like Arizona and rank 27th in homers. Arizona has more depth than Atlanta, which is especially important on Sunday when teams normally rest some starters. The Braves are missing injured setup man Arodys Vizcaino and closer Jim Johnson carries a fatigue rating having worked an inning each of the past two days.
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| 07-15-17 | Giants v. Padres +144 | 3-5 | Win | 144 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
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Sure on paper this looks like an epic pitching mismatch with Madison Bumgarner opposing Jhoulys Chacin. But perception doesn't fit reality here. Bumgarner hasn't pitched in three months. This is his first big league start since he sprained his left shoulder after a motorcycle mishap on April 20. Bumgarner is likely to be rusty and could be on a pitch count. It's a leap of faith to expect him to be in top form. Even when he was healthy, Bumgarner has struggled against the Padres with a 4.73 ERA in his last four starts against them. The Giants have the second-worst record in the majors in back of only the Phillies. They also have lost nine of Bumgarner's last 13 road starts. Chacin has been the nuts at Petco Park with a 1.68 ERA in nine starts at home this season. Chacin has yielded fewer than three earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts and is in excellent form with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts. The Padres have proven tough against the Giants winning 12 of the past 17 meetings.
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| 07-15-17 | Giants v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
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Madison Bumgarner will be making his first big league start since April. It would be surprising to find him anywhere near top form. This total is more in line if Bumgarner was in rhythm and not on a pitch count, which he could be. Bumgarner has struggled, too, against the Padres on the road where he's 4-6 with a 3.97 ERA in his career. Jhoylys Chacin has pitched extremely well at Petco Park, the premier pitcher's park. But he's still a journeyman pitcher and he's not backed by a strong bullpen. Chacin's ERA on the season is 4.32. The Giants have scored 17 runs in their last three games, an average of 5.6. They just got Eduardo Nunez back from a hamstring injury to ignite their speed game. Bumgarner also is one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball with 14 homers during the last four years. The weather forecast is for wind to be blowing out to right at nine mph. Jim Reynolds is slated to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed 53.4 percent of the time Reynolds has been behind the plate during the last three years at 39-34.
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| 07-14-17 | Giants -105 v. Padres | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
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Yes, it's a little disconcerting to lay a small road price with the Giants. But this is the game to do it in. The Giants are the better team and they have the superior pitcher going in a matchup of Johnny Cueto versus Clayton Richard. Cueto isn't elite anymore, but he's better than what he's shown this season. He's due for improvement against this weak hitting Padres team, which ranks last in runs and batting average. He's also pitching on his normal four day's rest. San Francisco is 21-6 the past 27 times when Cueto has pitched on four day's rest. The Giants' morale should be up with Madison Bumgarner slated to pitch this weekend. The Giants are a prideful team. The Padres are in clear rebuild mode. Cueto is a crafty veteran whose style should prove puzzling to San Diego's many young hitters. Cueto is 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 13 career starts versus San Diego. Richard is who he is, a below average starter with a 4.66 ERA. Richard has close to a 4.00 career ERA against the Giants.
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| 07-09-17 | Marlins v. Giants -131 | 10-8 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Marlins sweeping the Giants on the road. The Giants have their best pitcher, Johnny Cueto, going against Jose Urena, who has been pitching decently but is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. Cueto is healthy after being scratched before his last start this past Thursday against the Tigers due to an inner-ear infection. The Giants desperately need this game, while the Marlins are going to be sellers at the trade dealine. Cueto has pitched better at home. He has a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts and usually is at his best during day games where he sports a lifetime 2.70 ERA. The Marlins are 19-25 on the road. The Giants have dropped the first two games of this series. They are swinging the bats better, though, and have won seven of their last 11.
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| 07-09-17 | White Sox v. Rockies -121 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
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The Rockies have a much better lineup than the White Sox and are home facing a pitcher who has never pitched at Coors Field. So I'm going to get behind Kyle Freeland and back the Rockies against the White Sox, who are 19-30 on the road and have a losing mark in day games. The White Sox are 3-11 the last 14 times they've been on the road facing an opponent with a winning home record. Colorado is 25-18 at Coors and 22-13 in day action. White Sox starter Carlos Rondon has a tendency to be wild. This is just his third appearance of the season as he makes his way back from bicepts bursitis in his pitching arm. Freeland is a rookie who has looked good enough to be considered Colorado's second or third-best starter. He is 3-0 with a 2.95 in three interleague starts beating the Twins, Mariners and Indians - three teams all better than the White Sox.
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| 07-08-17 | Royals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
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The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball going 24-4 in their last 28 games. So why try to buck them here? Let me state the reasons: The Royals may be the second-hottest team at 18-7 in their last 25 games. They are 11-4 in their last 15 road games. The Royals have the hotter starting pitcher going. Kansas City needs this game knowing it faces Clayton Kershaw and a likely loss on Sunday. Oh, yes, I'm taking 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Royals. The Dodgers would be 1-4 in their last five games if laying 1 1/2 runs. Each of their last three victories have been by exactly one run. Ian Kennedy, a native of Southern California, is pitching for the Royals. He is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his last four starts. Kennedy is overlooked, but he has been outstanding. Kennedy hasn't surrendered more than six hits during any of his 15 starts. He's holding opponents to a .201 batting average, fourth-best in baseball behind only Max Scherzer, Kershaw and Chris Sale. Those are the three best pitchers in the majors. Kansas City has won each of Kennedy's past five road starts, too. The Dodgers are pitching righy Brandon McCarthy. He's been on the DL with a knee strain since June 25. McCarthy looked terrible in his last start, which came at home against Colorado. McCarthy only went three innings giving up five runs (four earned) on four hits and two walks. He also uncorked three wild pitches in one inning. There's a huge question mark about McCarthy's effectiveness now. He shouldn't be this high of a favorite - and taking 1 1/2 runs is added insurance. McCarthy has a 4.05 career ERA against the Royals in 14 appearances, including six starts. Kansas City has won 12 of the last 17 times it has faced a right-handed starter.
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| 07-07-17 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
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The Astros have the best offense in baseball ranking first in most of the major categories. The over has cashed eight of the last nine times in Astros game, including the past six. Toronto has scored seven runs in each of its last two games. I see this strong offensive pattern continuing in a pitching matchup of Charlie Morton versus Aaron Sanchez. Both have been on the DL since May. This is their first starts since then and both likely will be on pitch counts. Morton last pitched in the big leagues on May 24. He's been out with a right lat strain. Sanchez last pitched in the majors on May 19. He's been sidelined with a right middle finger problem that included a blister and split fingernail. Sanchez made a rehab appearance in Triple A this past Sunday and gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings. Now Sanchez has to deal with the Astros, who are averaging 7.1 runs in their last 20 games. Only twice during these last 20 games have the Astros failed to score at least four runs.
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| 07-07-17 | Padres v. Phillies -120 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
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I see the Phillies playing better during the second half of the season. I'm going to back them here with their promising rookie, Nick Pivetta, on the mound. The Phillies have some good young hitters, who haven't performed up to expectations this season. Expect better things from Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, who are beginning to step up their game. Pivetta was outstanding in his last start this past Sunday against the Mets. He held the Mets to one run in seven innings. But the biggest reason I like the Phillies' side at this price is a fade on the road Padres and their starting pitcher, Clayton Richard. The Padres are 14-27 away from Petco Park. They are 7-20 the past 27 times they've been on the road going against a foe with a losing home mark. The Padres might even be feeling a bit fat and happy after winning a road series against the Indians. Richard has never defeated the Phillies. He's 0-4 against them. Richard is in terrible form allowing 12 runs in his past two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Richard has a 4.85 ERA on the season, which stretches to 4.95 when he pitches in the evening.
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| 07-06-17 | MIAMI v. ST. LOUIS -148 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
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Michael Wacha is pitching his best ball of the season. Tom Koehler is dreadful with a terrible road history. So the choice is simple here - and the price isn't sky high to back the Cardinals. The Marlins are 3-14 in Koehler's last 17 starts and 2-7 during his past nine road starts. Koehler's road ERA is 4.65 during the last three years compared to 3.65 at Marlins Park. He has been so bad this season that the Marlins sent him down to the minors. Koehler resurfaced for a start this past Saturday against the Brewers. He couldn't get out of the second inning giving up seven earned runs on six hits and two walks, including a homer. I'm surprised the Marlins are giving him another shot. Wacha, meanwhile, is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his past three starts. He struck out a season-high nine in a 2-1 win against the powerful Nationals this past Saturday. Wacha threw a four-hit, six-inning shutout against the Nationals. The Marlins are 17-24 on the road. The Cardinals are 22-8 in Wacha's last 30 starts versus opponents with a sub .500 record. The Cardinals should have Jedd Gyorko, their leading hitter, back in the starting lineup.
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| 07-05-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
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The combination of two below average pitchers, two hot hitting clubs and a great hitter's ballpark this time of year should ensure this total going Over. Boston is averaging 8.1 runs in its last six games. Texas is averaging 6.2 runs in its last five games. Doug Fister starts for Boston. Fister is at the end of the line. His ERA is nearly 5.00 and he has a horrible track record versus the Rangers with a 5.19 ERA in 15 career starts. He is 1-4 in Arlington with an 8.59 ERA allowing eight homers in 29 1/3 innings. The Red Sox should do damage, though, against Andrew Cashner, who has become a journeyman type after one time showing potential at pitcher-friendly Petco Park when he pitched for the Padres. Cashner had to exit his last start this past Thursday against the Indians after his stomach and throwing arm were hit by a piece of Edwin Encarnaction's bat. So Cashner might not even be 100 percent. The Red Sox have gone over in six of their last seven road games. The over is 16-5-1 in Texas' last 22 home games. This isn't a fluke as Arlington becomes a huge hitter's park during the summer due to weather conditions. Those weather conditions will be in play again today with temperatures in the mid-80s causing extremely high humidity. This more than offsets just a slight wind blowing in.
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| 07-05-17 | Giants +165 v. Tigers | 5-4 | Win | 165 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
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I'll take the Giants at this price. San Francisco is playing much better winning six of its last seven. The Giants' power - dormant all season - has finally started to emerge. Veterans Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford are showing signs of coming around. Tigers starter Daniel Norris has looked terrible in his past two starts giving up 10 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings on 13 hits, four walks and three homers. Detroit is 2-6 in Norris' last eight home starts. The Giants have underachieved all season, but the Tigers aren't playing well losing 11 of their last 16. Ty Blach pitched well when he first entered San Francisco's rotation. Then he went through a slump. The buy sign is back on Blach after his last start where he held the Rockies to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 victory last Wednesday. The Tigers have never faced Blach. Detroit could be without its most feared hitter as Miguel Cabrera left yesterday's game due to tightness in his left hip.
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| 07-05-17 | Padres v. Indians OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
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The two teams opened their series with a 1-0 Padres victory last night. That was a pitching matchup of each team's best pitcher, Trevor Cahill against Corey Kluber. The pitching quality drops way down here for Game 2 of the series. San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is a youngster, who can barely be trusted when pitching at Petco Park. He is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park and going against an above average Indians offense with the DH in play. The Indians entered last night's game averaging 6.4 runs in their last seven games. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer always has been inconsistent. His night ERA is 5.68. The Padres have punch despite playing half of their games at Petco Park. They rank 18th in homers. Their outfield is upgraded with the recent return of Manuel Margot.
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| 07-04-17 | Reds v. Rockies -148 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -148 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
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All aboard. Tickets please. The Homer Bailey fade train is ready for departure and I'm on board again. This is close to my limit on laying a price, but it's worth it to go against Bailey, who has shown nothing since returning from elbow surgery. This is Bailey's third start. He's given up 14 runs on 12 hits and five walks in 4 2/3 innings during his first two starts. Even when he was in his prime, Bailey struggled against the Rockies with a career 4.43 ERA in seven starts. Now Bailey takes his turn at Coors Field. It's not going to be pretty. The Rockies have won eight of their last 10 at Coors. Their starter, Kyle Freeland, has pitched better at home with a 3.21 ERA compared to 4.35 on the road. Freeland, unlike Bailey, can be counted on to go at least six innings since he's done that in 11 of his 13 starts. The Reds have dropped 17 of their last 23 games. They could be missing sparkplug Billy Hamilton, who is dealing with a stiff lower back.
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| 07-04-17 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | 4-11 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
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Both starting pitchers, Seth Lugo and Joe Ross, are in good form. Ross has a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts. The Mets could be down their starting outfield while the Nationals are minus Trea Turner and expected to rest several other starters. Turner was injured five games ago. The Nationals have only played one Over during this span. This is a very early start even by East Coast time standards so that's another plus for the under.
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| 07-03-17 | Marlins v. Cardinals -139 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
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Jeff Locke is a near auto-fade as long as the price isn't sky high. The combination of backing Adam Wainwright at home while going against Locke puts me on St. Louis. The Cardinals have started to play better winning six of their last eight. They have a winning record versus southpaw starters. Locke, a lefty, has yet to win in six starts this season. He has been terrible with a 5.52 ERA. Locker has a 4.98 career ERA versus the Cardinals in 11 appearances, including 10 starts. Wainwright almost always is good at home. That's certainly been the case this season where he's 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in eight starts at Busch Stadium. Wainwright has a career 2.37 ERA against the Marlins, too. St. Louis has won 71 percent of Wainwright's past 51 home starts.
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| 07-03-17 | Orioles -106 v. Brewers | 1-8 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
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Call it a strong hunch. But I see regression coming for the overacheiving Brewers while the Orioles, their confidence and morale up after a Sunday win against Tampa Bay, make a move starting with this opening game of their seven-game road trip that takes them into All-Star break. The Brewers have to fill in for injured Chase Anderson. They are going to give lefty reliever Brent Suter a shot here. Don't expect much. Suter had one previous start this season. That came on June 13 against the Cardinals on the road. He gave up three runs in 4 2/3 innings. The Orioles are starting veteran southpaw Wade Miley. I'm not a big fan of Miley, but the Brewers do have a losing record against lefty starters and the Orioles are 6-1 during Miley's last seven interleague starts.
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| 07-02-17 | Twins +128 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
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What we get with the underdog Twins is this: A team that owns the second-best road mark in the majors and has won 18 of its last 27 away games. We also get the opportunity to go against Royals starter Travis Wood at a plus price. You mean that Travis Wood, the long-time National Leaguer trying to keep his career afloat as a reliever in the American League? Yep, same guy. Wood hasn't started since 2015 when he was with the Cubs. He's been buried in the Royals bullpen where he sports a 6.28 ERA and a losing record. The Royals are short on pitching after yesterday's doubleheader so they are attempting to prop up Wood. The Twins are throwing Hector Santiago. Boh starters are southpaws. The Twins have the better record versus lefty starters than Kansas City. The Royals have dropped seven of their last 10 home games when going against a southpaw starter. Minnesota also has defeated Kansas City in nine of the past 12 meetings. I don't consider Santiage more than a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. But he's fresh. He only got to work two innings in his last start this past Tuesday because of a rain delay. The Twins have the better closer, too. Bottom line, though, is fading Wood with a strong road team.
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| 07-02-17 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
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Look for the Cubs-Reds to reach double-digits in runs scored today at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park. It's a good day for the hitters with temperatures in the 80's and the wind blowing out at 10 mph. There are a number of key batters back for each team with the Cubs regaining the services of Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist while Zack Cozart has returned for Cincinnati after missing 10 games with a quad injury. Cubs starter Jake Arrieta has lost his elite status. He's actually become a below average pitcher with a 4.67 ERA. Arrieta is worse on the road where he's 4-6 with a 5.04 ERA in 11 road outings this season. Arrieta allowed the Nationals to steal seven bases against him during his last start. The Reds are tied for the third-most steals in the majors. Reds starter Tim Adelman has a 4.62 ERA. If it weren't for multiple injuries, he likely wouldn't even be in a starting rotation. Adelman has surrendered at least one homer in each of his last six starts, including seven in his last four starts. He's also walked 13 batters during his last four outings. Giving up walks and homers is especially difficult to overcome at Great American Ball Park.
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| 07-02-17 | Phillies +147 v. Mets | 7-1 | Win | 147 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
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The Mets have managed to nip the Phillies by one run during each of the last two days. There's too much value to pass on the Phillies today in a pitching matchup of Nick Pivetta versus Rafael Montero. Both have ERA's well above 5.00, but I like Pivetta's potential much. Pivetta was blasted by the Diamondbacks at Arizona in his last start. There's no shame in that with the way the Diamondbacks have played and hit in the desert this season. Before that game, Pivetta had allowed three runs in his previous two starts spanning 13 innings with a 19-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Mets' less than awesome lineup is without Michael Conforto and Neil Walker. Both are on the DL. It wouldn't be surprising if other regulars were rested today. Pivetta has the element of surprise on his side, too, as the Mets have yet to face him. Montero, on the other hand, has a 12.00 ERA in five appearances versus the Phillies. The Mets aren't likely to have closer Addison Reed available because he's pitched each of the last three days. The Mets have pulled within 8 1/2 games of the NL-East leading Nationals. The Mets play at the Nationals for a three-game series beginning Monday so their focus may not be 100 percent on this game.
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| 07-01-17 | Marlins v. Brewers -128 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
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The Brewers lead the NL in homers and have the superior pitcher going in Zach Davies. Ryan Braun should be back in Milwaukee's lineup, too, after resting yesterday. |
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| 07-01-17 | Cubs -112 v. Reds | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
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Even though the Cubs lost 5-0 in the series opener yesterday, they have owned the Reds in Cincinnati winning 14 of the past 18 times. The Cubs are 8-1 following a loss. I expect them to bounce back here against rookie Jackson Stephens, who is making his major-league debut. Stephens was 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA in Triple A this season. I'd be surprised if Stephens gets another start for a long time as this looks like a one-shot, desperation spot for the Reds. The Cubs have a strong bridge to closer Wade Davis. Chicago starter Eddie Butler should be counted on to get through six innings. Butler has a 1.00 ERA during his last two starts. He held the Nationals - the No. 2 scoring team in the majors - scoreless in his last start going five innings at Washington this past Monday. The Reds are far worse than the Nationals, losers of 15 of their last 20 games.
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| 06-30-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 7.5 | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
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It's not that I don't care for Lance McCullers or Michael Pineda, even though he's in bad form. But when the oddsmaker puts up a total of less than eight involving these two teams I'm going Over. These are the two best offenses in baseball. Houston leads the majors in batting average and homers. The Astros are No. 3 in runs. They are averaging 6.5 runs in their last 14 games. The Yankees have hit the second-most homers in the majors and are No. 2 in runs and third in batting average. Pineda is 0-1 with a 7.47 ERA in his last three starts. That's pushed his season ERA up to 4.12. Pineda can be tantalizing, but he's not an ace and not deserving of having a total this low listed by his name against the powerful Astros. Same with McCullers.Yes, he's promising. But he's not a sure thing. McCullers already has surpassed the 81 innings he pitched last year in the majors. This is just his second start in more than three weeks.
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| 06-30-17 | Marlins v. Brewers UNDER 10 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
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First off, there's a chance of thunderstorms. That means there's a good chance that the retractable roof is going to be closed at Miller Park, which would be a huge plus for the Under. But even if it's an open stadium there's only a slight wind. I'm fine, too, with a pair of veteran starters - Edinson Volquez and Matt Garza. Neither pitcher is overly sharp right now. That's why the total is at double-digits. I think that's going to be too high for these two teams in this matchup. The Marlins have a below average offense. They are have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. Garza has a respectable 3.51 night ERA. Volquez has had some control issues lately, but he's still held four of his last six opponents to two runs or fewer.
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| 06-29-17 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
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The over has cashed in 74 percent of Kyle Gibson's past 25 starts. Gibson is having another Gibson type season with a 6.23 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Gibson walks a lot of batters and yields a lot of homers. A bad combination. David Price isn't nearly the pitcher he once was. He's on pace to give up the most homers of his career per nine innings and has a 4.76 ERA. Price hasn't gone past the sixth inning in five of his six starts this season. He's allowed three or more earned runs in four of those five outings. The weather sets up well for the offense, here, too, with temperatures in the high 70's and the wind blowing out to left field at 15-16 mph. There's a possibility the Red Sox will have Hanley Ramirez back in their lineup. He's missed the past three games with a bruised knee.
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| 06-29-17 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
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The time to fade Jimmy Nelson is when he pitches on the road at night. The time to go against Homer Bailey ... is well anytime. The two pitchers face off at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park on a hot, muggy night with temperatures slated to be in the high-to-mid 80's. That kind of weather really favors the hitter. The Brewers' bullpen has worked 11 innings during the last two days. The Reds' best relief pitcher, closer Raisel Iglesias, has also pitched the last two days. This spot is ripe for fireworks. Nelson has a 5.06 road ERA compared to 2.64 at home. His nigh ERA is 4.50. During the day his ERA is 1.29. The Reds' lineup just got more powerful as shortstop Zach Cozart is expected back in the lineup today. Bailey's career may be finished. This will be just his 10th start in three years as he's undergone three arm surgeries. Bailey made his season debut this past Saturday on the road against the Nationals. He couldn't get out of the second inning giving up six hits and three walks. Bailey is 5-8 lifetime against the Brewers with a 4.64 ERA. |
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| 06-28-17 | Mets -101 v. Marlins | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
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Steven Matz and Jeff Locke are both left-handed. But that is where the similarity ends. Matz is one of the better young pitchers in baseball. Locke is a stiff, who is a near auto-fade whenever he toes the rubber especially at this price. Locke is brutal again this season with an 0-3 mark and 5.70 ERA. He hasn't reached the fifth inning during his past two starts. Locke has made four career starts against the Mets and is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in those outings. Matz has two career starts versus the Marlins and is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA.
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| 06-28-17 | Rays v. Pirates -123 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
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In Nova we trust. Ivan Nova has been very good for Pittsburgh all season. Nova, not Gerrit Cole, is the Pirates' best pitcher. Nova has been especially strong at home with a 2.53 ERA in seven starts this season. It has been a disappointing year for the Pirates so far, but they have stepped up their play recently going 9-7 in their last 16 games. I think this is a cheap home price to lay with Nova facing Blake Snell, who is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight starts for Tampa Bay. Snell also doesn't go deep into games, putting the vulnerable Rays bullpen into play probably earlier than usual. Snell has been so bad the Rays sent him to the minors. Now he's back up. Don't expect much. |
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| 06-28-17 | Phillies v. Mariners -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
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Can the Phillies defeat the Mariners twice in a row at Safeco Field? The answer is a resounding no and I'm willing to lay 1 1/2 runs to back this opinion. Philadelphia is the worst team in the majors. A big reason for this is the Phillies' inability to win on the road. Going back to last season, Philadelphia is a hidieous 12-40 during its last 52 away contests - and that includes beating Seattle last night. The Mariners have won 18 of their last 29 games while averaging more than six runs per game during this span. They have far too much offense for Mark Leiter Jr., who is set to make his second big league start here. Leiter is a converted reliever, who had a 4.74 ERA in 19 innings. This included giving up 14 walks in 19 innings. Seattle starter Felix Hernandez looked good in his return from the DL this past Friday. He beat the Astros giving up three runs in six innings. Now he steps down from the best team to the worst team. The Mariners have won nine of Hernandez's last 11 home starts.
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| 06-27-17 | Braves v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
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Atlanta rookie starter Sean Newcomb has shown a lot of promise in three home starts. But he's an unknown commodity on the road. This is his first away big league start. Petco Park is the premier pitcher's park in the majors, but it has gotten better for the hitters. The Padres are averaging 5.2 runs in their last nine home games. Padres starter Jhoulys Chacin has pitched far better at Petco than on the road where his ERA is a fat 9.08. Chacin is Chacin, though, a journeyman pitcher. There should not be a total lower than eight attached to his name. Chacin made five starts for the Braves last season so Atlanta is familiar with him. The Braves were shut out in their last game, but averaged 6.5 runs during their previous 12 games. Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips are enjoying huge comeback seasons for the Braves both batting above .300 as is Ender Inciarte, one of the more underrated players in the league. Neither bullpen can be trusted either.
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| 06-27-17 | Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
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I don't trust Jose Quintana to win games. But I do trust the lefty to pitch well. Quintana is back on his game allowing only six runs in his last four starts while posting a 2.25 ERA during this span. The under has cashed in 10 of Quintana's last 14 starts. The Yankees hit righties far better than lefties with a .242 batting average versus southpaws. Luis Severino has turned the corner this season becoming a solid starter with star potential. He has a 3.30 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 87 1/3 innings. The Yankees have one of the best bullpens now that Arolidis Chapman is back healthy and Chicago has an underrated bullpen. The weather forecast is for clear skies with temperatures in the high 60's-to-low-70's with a light wind. So the pitching conditions are not bad.
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| 06-26-17 | Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
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Chris Sale is the best pitcher in the American League. Jose Berrios is showing signs of becoming an elite pitcher, living up to his huge potential. I find the opening total on this game a run too high. So I'm jumping on the under taking advantage of what I see as a rare oddsmaker mistake. There's a reason the under is 10-1-1 during Berrios' last 12 starts. Berrios has been tremendous since returning to the majors. He has a 2.67 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and a 54-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 54 innings. Berrios is 4-0 with a 2.84 ERA in four road starts. The Red Sox have never faced him giving Berrios an element of surprise. Boston has scored four or fewer runs in six of their last nine games. The Red Sox were just held to two runs by the Angels' Parker Bridwell, Blake Parker and Yusmeiro Petit in a 4-2 loss Sunday. Boston could manage only eight hits off that less than inspiring trio. Sale is a monster with a 9-3 mark and 2.85 ERA. He went into Sunday leading the majors in strikeouts with 146. Only once in his last eight starts has Sale permitted more than three earned runs. The Twins have been held to four or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. There shouldn't be any problem with the weather either as the forecast is for light wind and partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the 70s.
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| 06-25-17 | Mets v. Giants -134 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
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The record shows Matt Moore to be 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA. His Giants have lost 11 of 12 and are in danger of being swept at home by the Mets. So why get involved with the Giants especially when laying a mid-sized price? Oddsmakers aren't stupid. There's a reason why the Giants are favored here. Moore pitches much better at home and in day games. His road ERA is 8.39. At AT&T Park his ERA is 3.07. Moore has a 3.23 ERA in day games. His ERA at night rises to 8.02. I also like what I saw from Moore during his last start. That was at Atlanta this past Tuesday. Moore allowed three runs in seven innings with six strikeouts and one walk in getting the victory in a 6-3 win. Moore was shelled in his prior start before beating the Braves, but that came at Coors Field. The Mets have swept just one series this season. They caught the Giants in a bad spot during the first two games of the series because San Francisco had to fly back from Atlanta late Thursday following a long rain delay. The Giants are settled in now and embarrassed about their poor season. This is a crucial homestand for them. The biggest thing the Giants have going today is facing Rafael Montero. The Mets are down several starters so they're forced to bring Montero in from the bullpen to make a spot start. Montero is dreadful. He's lucky to only have a 6.49 ERA considering he's given up 36 hits and 19 walks in just 26 1/3 innings.
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| 06-24-17 | Tigers v. Padres -102 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
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I once liked Anibal Sanchez. But that was back in his prime when he pitched for the Marlins. The 33-year-old Sanchez has been with the Tigers the past five seasons. His ERA was 4.99 two years ago. It was 5.87 last year. This season it's 9.35. Detroit has lost seven consecutive games, the most losses the Tigers have suffered in a row all season. The Padres are one of the worst teams in the majors. But they are a .500 club at home and the Tigers definitely are worth fading right now. Sanchez had been so bad in 11 relief appearances, the Tigers shipped him to the minors. This is his second start since returning to Detroit. The Tigers are 3-11 in Sanchez's past 14 road starts. Padres starter, 24-year-old Dinelson Lamet, is an intriguing rookie with tremendous stuff. He has 37 strikeouts in 24 innings and will be making his sixth big league start. Command and giving up the long ball have hurt him. But the Tigers have never seen Lamet, who will be helped throwing in spacious Petco Park. The Tigers remain without injured Victor Martinez, who isn't scheduled to play again until Tuesday because of an irregular heart beat.
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| 06-23-17 | Mets +106 v. Giants | Top | 11-4 | Win | 106 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
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There are many reasons to like the underdog Mets here. Situation, pitching matchup and the possibility the Giants are going to be without their two best offensive players head the list. Let's begin with the spot. It's terrible for the Giants. They had to play a night game in Atlanta Thursday night, losing 11-10 . The game was delayed nearly 1 1/2 hours because of rain. So the Giants didn't get home from the long journey until this morning. They've been on the road for eight days. Not only are they going be down physically, but their focus and concentration figure to be off, too. It was unfair the Giants had to play a night game, not a day game on Thursday, knowing they had to return home to play tonight. Things are made worse for them by the long rain delay. Because of this, there's the strong chance the Giants will rest star catcher Buster Posey, who has played 10 straight days. San Francisco also likely is to be missing Eduardo Nunez. He's been dealing with a hamstring injury and could go on the DL. Nunez is second to Posey in team batting and has 17 steals. No other Giant has more than six steals. The Mets have been in California having just wrapped up a three-game series with the Dodgers. The Mets have a better road record than home mark. San Francisco is four games below .500 at home. The pitching matchup is Seth Lugo versus Ty Blach. Lugo is no Tyler Pill. In other words, he's not a stiff, but a below-the-radar, underrated pitcher who is overlooked because he's been out with an elbow injury and the Mets are loaded with good, young arms. This will be Lugo's third start of the season since returning from injury. He has a 2.63 ERA. The Giants rank last in the majors in runs scored and second-to-last in homers. I'm expecting a strong performance from Lugo. Blach started out well in replacing injured Madison Bumgarner. Lately, though, the opposition has adjusted to Blach as he's 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his last three starts. The weather forecast is for wind to blow out to left field at around 15 mph making right-handed Yoenis Cespedes the most dangerous hitter in the game.
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| 06-22-17 | Cubs -122 v. Marlins | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
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Granted, Jake Arrieta isn't the same pitcher he was in 2015 when he won the NL Cy Young Award. Arrieta is 6-5 with a 4.64 ERA. His fastball velocity is down to 91.8 mph from 93.8 last year. But Arrieta still rates a strong edge against Marlins starter Jeff Locke and the defending world champions still are much superior to the Marlins. Arrieta has a good track record versus Miami with a 1.42 ERA in three career starts. He'll be helped pitching at Marlins Park, a pitcher's park. Locke may be the worst player ever to appear in an All-Star game. He's 0-2 with a 4.58 in four starts this season after coming off the DL. The southpaw is 1-5 lifetime against the Cubs with a 5.98 ERA in 13 appearances, including 11 starts. Wildness is an issue with Locke and the Cubs draw the most walks versus lefties of any team. It's one of the reasons why the Cubs have won 63 percent of their games against lefty starters this season.
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| 06-22-17 | White Sox -118 v. Twins | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
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I put Minnesota's Nik Turley at the head of my list of worst starting pitchers. The 27-year-old journeyman has been with nearly half of the organizations in the majors leagues and that's not an exaggeration. It's amazing Turley still is in the Twins' starting rotation. Fading Turley at this low lay price is a gift. White Sox starter Jose Quintana is respectable. He's coveted in the trade market. Quintana is in decent form, too, with a 3.12 ERA in three starts this month. Turley has made two starts. He's been hammered in both of them by the weak-hitting Giants and Indians. His ERA is 12.46. Opponents are batting a mind-boggling.436 against him. The White Sox should have some motivation trying to avoid a series sweep. The Twins haven't swept an opponent at home since hosting the Royals to start the season. Minnesota is eight games under .500 at home this season, dropping 10 of their last 14 at Target Field.
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| 06-21-17 | Pirates v. Brewers -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
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The Pirates have halted the Brewers' momentum winning the first two games of this series at Miller Park. Milwaukee has left a staggering 34 runners on base during the series. Look for things to change today in a pitching matchup of Trevor Williams versus Junior Guerra. I'm not a fan of Williams, who has a 5.16 ERA on the season. His road ERA is nearly 5.00 in seven away appearances, including four starts. Guerra is below-the-radar. He's the Brewers' second-most consistent pitcher. Opponents are batting only .191 against him and he has a 2.84 ERA on the year. Guerra has a lifetime 1.42 ERA versus Pittsburgh in four appearances, including three starts. The Brewers have a strong track record when Guerra pitches against sub .500 opponents winning nine of the last 11 times. The Pirates could be without starting catcher Franciso Cervelli. He missed yesterday's game due to flu-like symptoms. The Brewers have dominated the Pirates at home through the years, winning 72 percent of their last 87 home games against them.
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| 06-21-17 | Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
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The Over is 10-4-1 in the Rangers' last 15 home games. This isn't surprising. As the weather gets warmer, the ball carries much better in Arlington. We have a high total today in Arlington, where the temperature is expected to reach the 90-degree mark. But it's still worth going Over - and not just because of the humidity. The pitching matchup is Joe Biagini against Tyson Ross. Biagini may not be sticking in the Blue Jays' starting rotation too much longer. He's 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his past three starts. Biagini's declining velocity was on display in his last start when he was shelled for seven runs on eight innings in just one inning against the White Sox this past Friday. Sparked by the return of Carlos Gomez from the DL, Texas has averaged seven runs during its last five games. Gomez has three homers and nine RBI during this span. The Blue Jays should do their share of damage versus Ross, who is making only his second start after missing the first 2 1/2 months of the season with a shoulder injury. Ross pitched only once last year before suffering shoulder woes. So he's rusty. Ross walked more than five batters per nine innings and had a 7.71 ERA while rehabbing in the minors. Ross also is going to be on a pitch count, which puts the vulnerable Texas bullpen and suddenly shaky closer Matt Bush into play.
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| 06-20-17 | Tigers +137 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
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The Mariners aren't going to keep winning relying on Mike Zunio to hit homers, Taylor Motter to perform like a starting shorstop and Ariel Miranda to keep pitching above his skill level especially with Nelson Cruz in a slump and Jean Segura still not back in action. I see value with the underdog Tigers here and a buy sign on Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman has dropped far from his days as a very good pitcher for the Nationals. But he's below-the-radar right now having given up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Miranda, on the other hand, has pitched better than expected. The lefty's regression, though, is beginning to kick in. Miranda was hit hard by the Twins during his past start giving up six runs on 10 hits in four innings, including surrendering three homers. The Tigers are 10-7 against southpaw starters this season.
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| 06-19-17 | Padres v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
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I want Jon Lester at home against the Padres and this is the way to do that without laying a ton of juice. The Cubs' last five victories have been by an average of 6.2 runs. Chicago is averaging 7.4 runs during their last five games. Lester has a 2.65 ERA at Wrigley Field this season and a 2.96 ERA against the Padres in four lifetime starts. The Cubs are not going to lack motivation, or focus, either against the bottom-feeding Padres since San Diego swept them at Petco Park at the end of last month. The Padres are one of the worst road clubs in the majors at 11-24. They have lost seven of their past nine away games. The Cubs are familiar with Padres starter, southpaw Clayton Richard. He pitched for the Cubs in 2015 and 2016. The Cubs are 9-6 versus lefty starters. Richard is bad on the road away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park with a 1-4 away mark and 4.39 ERA.
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| 06-19-17 | Nationals -108 v. Marlins | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
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The Nationals have won 12 of their last 15 road games, but are coming off a loss to Jacob deGrom yesterday. Look for the Nationals to bounce back against the Marlins today and a much weaker pitcher, southpaw Justin Nicolino. Washington ranks among the top four in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers. Nicolino is more pitcher than thrower heavily relying on location to have any chance of success. He figures to be rusty having not pitched since May 30 because of a bruised index finger on his pitching hand. Even at his best, Nicolino is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. The Marlins are 1-11 the past 12 times Nicolino has gone against an opponent with a winning record. His career record at Marlins Park is 2-6 and he is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in four games, including three starts, versus the Nationals lifetime. Washington is 7-4 against lefty starters this season. I much prefer Washington starter Tanner Roark, who is a legitimate No. 3 type starter. Roark draws a Marlins lineup still missing the starting left side of their infield with Martin Prado and Adeiny Hechavarria out. The Nationals' lone weakness is a vulnerable bullpen that has lacked a consistent closer. That may change with the emergence of Enny Romero, who hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 appearances spanning 12 innings. The Marlins are having problems with their bullpen, too. They blew leads of four runs and two runs during the weekend against the Braves. The Nationals are a much more dangerous hitting club than Atlanta. |
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| 06-18-17 | Cardinals -111 v. Orioles | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
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Baltimore has lost eight of its last nine, is down its two top relief pitchers, power-hitting first baseman Chris Davis and is pitching Ubaldo Jimenez. So, year, I like the Cardinals at this reasonable lay price. Jimenez should be left in long relief. He's not a legitimate starter anymore as proven with a 7.71 ERA in eight starts this year. He has been tagged for 11 homers in less than 40 innings, The Orioles are minus closer Zach Britton and set-up man Darren O'Day. Lance Lynn is a candidate for Comeback of the Year honors. He has a 2.69 ERA after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery. He has been highly consistent, limiting foes to a .189 batting average.
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| 06-17-17 | Cleveland Indians - Game #2 v. Minnesota Twins - Game #2 +123 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
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I don't believe Mike Clevinger should be laying this high of a road price. Teams are starting to hit Clevinger more as they learn about him. This will be Clevinger's seventh start of the season. He has allowed five homers in his last three games and his ERA is up to 4.09. Clevinger has a 4.26 ERA in three lifetime starts against Minnesota. Twins starter Aadlberto Mejia is making his eighth start. Mejia had a bad outing in his last start against the Mariners, which blew up his ERA. However, the southpaw had given up three or fewer runs in his first seven starts. The Indians have a losing record versus lefty starters.
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| 06-17-17 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
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Chase Anderson could be the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Only three pitchers have a lower NL ERA than Anderson's 2.83. Anderson is in great form, too, giving up just one run during his last four starts spanning 27 2/3 innings. He has 30 strikeouts during this time frame. Anderson faces a San Diego squad that ranks last in the majors in runs and batting average. The under is 9-3-1 in Anderson's last 13 home starts. The key to making this under work, though, is San Diego rookie starter Dinelson Lamet. The guy has great stuff with 25 strikeouts in 22 innings. Command is an issue, however, with him. He's had two good starts and two bad ones in a row. This is his fifth big league start and I see him bounching back here. Lamet is holding right-handed batters to a .138 average. Milwaukee's four best outfielders all bat right-handed. There is a real chance of thunderstorms for this game, which would mean the retractable roof at Miller Park being closed. That would be a major plus for the under.
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| 06-16-17 | Nationals -156 v. Mets | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
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Nothing against Steven Matz, a young pitcher I like. But the Mets are going to get smoked here. The Mets are down their starting middle infield - Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker - plus outfielder Juan Lagares. The Nationals rank in the top four in a number of mjaor offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers, and they Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer may be the best right-hander in baseball. He's in great form, too, going 3-1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last four starts with a 48-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. Scherzer has a strong history versus the Mets, too, with a 2.39 ERA in 13 appearances. Matz is coming off an elbow injury. This is just his second start of the season. He's stepping way up in class having faced the Braves in his season debut this past Saturday. The Nationals have won nine of their last 11 road games. They are 22-7 in Scherzer's last 29 road starts. Washington has dominated the Mets at Citi Field also winning 43 of the past 57 times there.
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| 06-15-17 | Royals v. Angels -128 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
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To make this play more palpable we have to knock down several perceptions. The first being the Angels can't win minus Mike Trout. Not true. They are 9-7 without him, including winning five of their last seven. The second is the Royals are hot. Yes, they've won four in a row. Those victories have come, however, against the Padres and Giants. Those two teams have the second and third-worst records in the majors. The third is laying a price with Ricky Nolasco starting. I get that. Nolasco is mediocre. He's lost his last five starts. But he hasn't pitched poorly during those outings giving up three runs or fewer in three of them. He held the Astros, a much stronger offensive team than the Royals, to two runs in seven innings during his last start. The Royals have scored the fewest runs in the American League so Nolasco isn't exactly going up against the '27 Yankees. Nolasco's mediocrity trumps Royals starter, Matt Strahm. The lefty will be making his first career major league start. He has been a reliever his entire big league career. Strahm is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 20 games this season. Strahm is getting the nod only because of an injury to Danny Duffy and the Royals losing faith in Eric Skogulund. In other words, he's a desperation ploy. The Angels are 11-6 versus southpaw starters this season. They've won five of the past six against them. Strahm has control issues walking 18 in 22 innings. He's going to be on a pitch count, too, so the Royals less than stellar middle relief figures to get plenty of work. I'd much prefer Nolasco against Strahm and a motley collection of Royals relief pitchers. The Royals are five games under .500 on the road. The Angels are at their best hosting opponents with a losing away mark winning 21 of the past 29 times against them.
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| 06-14-17 | Orioles -126 v. White Sox | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
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My reluctance on laying a road price with the Orioles is overcome by Chicago starting Miguel Gonzalez, who is 1-7 with a 6.56 ERA in his last eight starts. He's allowed 10 home runs in his last 46 2/3 innings. The Orioles are minus Chris Davis, but have Manny Machado back in the lineup. They are going with Dylan Bundy, who is their most consistent starter.
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| 06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians -142 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
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The buy sign is on to back Corey Kluber. The former Cy Young Award winner looks to be in elite form again going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts since coming off the DL. He has an 18-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. The Indians have won 21 of Kluber's past 26 starts, including all four of his home starts this season. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is due for regression having given up two runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 stars, including the last four. McCarthy is who he is - and that's an average pitcher at best. The Dodgers also have to deal with the distraction of Yasiel Puig, who drew national headlines for making an obscene gesture last night.
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| 06-13-17 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Tigers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
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Zach Greinke versus Buck Farmer is a massive starting pitching edge for Arizona. The Diamondbacks also have the superior offense. So, at this low lay price, Arizona is worthy of a solid investment. From 2014 through 2016, Farmer compiled an 0-6 record with 6.84 ERA being used more in relief than as a starter. Farmer has made two starts this season and not allowed a run in 13 innings. So, suddenly, we have a low price here. I'm not buying into Farmer. I'd rather go wtih Greinke, who isn't dominant like he once was but still remains well above average. He has a 3.20 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 84 1/3 innings with only 17 walks. Greinke has made 16 starts at Comerica Park. He's 13-7 lifetime versus Detroit with a 2.79 ERA. Greinke has been especially strong versus sub .500 teams. Arizona is 17-4 in Greinke's last 21 starts against teams with a losing mark. It's fair to point out that while the Diamondbacks lead the majors in batting at home with a .293 average, they have the worst road batting mark at .219. This is a misleading mark. Arizona has tremendous offensive players. Paul Goldschmidt is in the argument for best all-around player and Jake Lamb leads the majors in RBIs. Chris Owings is having a breakout season. This is the first time all season the Diamondbacks get to use a DH. The Diamondbacks have played 20 of their 30 road games at pitcher's parks, including six games at San Diego's Petco Park.
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| 06-12-17 | Rockies +126 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
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It's a nice story that Jameson Taillon is returning to the mound for Pittsburgh today five weeks after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. Taillon is a promising young pitcher, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be following a 3.21 ERA during three rebhad starts in Double A. The Rockies lead the NL West, are 7-1 in their last eight games and have won 24 of their 35 road games. Colorado is pitching underrated lefty Kyle Freeland, who has held six of his 12 opponents this season to one or fewer runs. Colorado is 6-0 in Freeland's past six road starts. The Pirates are 7-11 going against southpaw starters. The Pirates rank 25th in runs and 29th in homers. They may be without their new closer and best relief pitcher, Felipe Rivera. He's gone 1 1/3 innings during each of the last two days. Colorado has one of the best offenses in baseball ranking fourth in runs and batting average. This could be an emotional night for the Pirates because of Taillon. But the Rockies are the better team and are getting a price. So they're worth backing here.
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| 06-11-17 | Mets v. Braves -115 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
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Unlike Saturday, when Sean Newcomb and Matt Wisler made their season debuts, the Braves are going with their best pitcher today: lefty Jaime Garcia. The former Cardinal usually is effective when he's been healthy. Rarely, though, was he healthy with St. Louis. Now he's 100 percent and in great form with a 1.23 ERA during his past four starts. The Mets have a losing record versus southpaws and also a losing road record. Getting the start for New York is Seth Lugo, who has been out all season recovering from an elbow injury. He makes his season debut after posting a 4.58 ERA in four rehab stats. He hasn't started in eight days. Lugo is rusty and likely to be on a pitch count. The Mets' bullpen is shaky.
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| 06-10-17 | Royals -112 v. Padres | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
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San Diego just may be the worst team in baseball, 14 games below .500 and in rebuilt mode. So the opportunity to lay a low price against them - especially when the Padres are going with a vulnerable starting pitcher - is a solid investment. The Padres have been outscored 48-17 in losing five of their last six games. They did win the opener of this series on Friday. But are 2-9 the past 11 times when playing Game 2 of a series. The Royals have won the last six times when playing in the second game of a series. I'm expecting a bounce back victory from the Royals again with a pitching matchup of Ian Kennedy versus Miguel Diaz. It's easy to get down on Kennedy because he hasn't been pitching well. However, everything sets up well for him here. He's finally healthy after being bothered by a leg injury. He has a good history when pitching at Petco Park - a place he knows well having pitched for the Padres from 2013-15 - and he's 7-2 lifetime against San Diego from his days with Arizona. The Padres also have the weakest offense in the majors ranking last in runs and batting average. Diaz is a reliever with a 7.50 ERA who is pressed into starting duty because of an injury to Jared Cosart. Diaz isn't ready. Padres manager Andy Green isn't optimistic either. This is what Green was quoted as saying about Diaz being a starter: "He doesn't have quite the deception necessary to turn lineups over two and three and four times right now. That's a challenge for him."
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| 06-09-17 | A's v. Rays -117 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
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I'll take any excuse to fade the A's on the road and this low lay price and pitching matchup gives it to me. Oakland is 8-20 on the road. Andrew Triggs is slated to go for the A's. He's in bad form with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts. Triggs has surrendered five homers in his last four starts. Tampa Bay ranks No. 2 in the majors in homers. Rays starter Alex Cobb has pitched better at home and is on extra rest. He is 3-2 lifetime versus the A's with a 2.44 ERA in seven career starts.
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| 06-08-17 | Twins v. Mariners -113 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
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The Mariners have won nine of their last 10 and five in a row. I don't see Kyle Gibson ending that streak. The Twins have overachieved, but now their bullpen is melting down and Gibson is on the mound. He's one of the worst starting ptichers in the majors. Gibson had 25 starts last season and went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA. He's been even worse this season with a 7.23 ERA. In 42 1/3 innings, Gibson has allowed 57 hits and 23 walks. The lay price is low, though, because the Mariners are starting Christian Bergman and are minus Jean Segura and likely to be without Nelson Cruz, too. Segura is on the DL and Cruz is dealing with a sore calf. Bergman got shelled three starts ago. That was on the road against the Nationals, who have the best offense in the majors. In his last two starts, Bergman has pitched well giving up two runs in 13 innings facing the Red Sox at Fenway and Rays at home. Bergman is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. I find the Mariners to be an excellent bargain being home against Gibson.
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| 06-07-17 | Giants +122 v. Brewers | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
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I see a regression coming from the Brewers, who are a surprising three games above .500. So this is a good time to step in against the favored Brewers with a hot pitcher. Giants starter, lefty Ty Blach, hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his past five starts. He's 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA during this stretch. Milwaukee has the disadvantage of never having faced him before. Ryan Braun is out for the Brewers and Eric Thames has cooled off. The Brewers also have a losing mark versus southpaws. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson is in good form, too, but has yet to become a consistent pitcher. He has a 5.50 career ERA versus the Giants in three starts. The Giants are healthy now in the outfield with Denard Span and Hunter Pence both back in the lineup.
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| 06-07-17 | Indians v. Rockies +115 | 1-8 | Win | 115 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
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I'm not buying the Indians as a road favorite at Coors Field especially with Trevor Bauer on the mound. The Rockies are proving for real this season being 14 games above .500. Bauer has never pitched at Coors Field so he's going to be in for a rude awakening. He is 2-3 with a 6.14 ERA in six road starts this season and has never been consistent throughout his career. Cleveland has dropped nine of its last 10 interleague games. Freeland leads the Rockies in quality starts with eight. He has a 3.94 home ERA, which is respectable for Coors Field.The Rockies are 7-2 in Freeland's last nine starts.
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| 06-06-17 | Nationals -116 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
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Washington has the better record. Washington has the better offense. Washington has the better starting pitcher by far. So the Nationals are an easy choice here at this low lay price. The Nationals lead the majors in many of the key offensive categories. They are playing well going 6-1 on their current road trip. Nationals starter Max Scherzer is the best right-hander in the National League and is in dominant form with a 2-0 mark and 1.02 ERA with a 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two starts spanning 17 2/3 innings. Washington is 21-7 in Scherzer's past 28 road starts. LA is 2-4 in its last six games. The Dodgers have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last six games. They are minus injured Justin Turner. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy has pitched better than expected this season. But he's been nicked up with his latest injury being a finger blister that caused him to be lifted from his last start this past Thursday. McCarthy is two tiers below Scherzer. |
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| 06-05-17 | Nationals +118 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 118 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
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The Nationals have the best record in the National League. They have the top offense in baseball and already are in California having just concluded a series with Oakland. The Dodgers are traveling back home after finishing up a seven-game road trip this past Saturday with a 3-0 loss to the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Nationals are in the better spot and hold a starting pitching matchup edge with Gio Gonzalez taking on Hyun-Jin Ryu. Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers, including 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are 2-9 in Ryu's past 11 starts. Ryu remains on the comeback trail and has a tenuous hold on LA's No. 5 pitching slot.
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| 06-04-17 | Braves v. Reds UNDER 10 | 13-8 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
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I like Julio Teheran especially with the Reds likely to be missing two of their key offensive players and I'm willing to take a leap of faith with Amir Garrett on this high of a total. Teheran hasn't solved his new home park in Atlanta, but he's been tremendous on the road going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA. He has a 2.25 ERA going back to his last 22 away starts and has a career 2.23 ERA in five starts versus the Reds. Cincinnati probably is going to be missing outfielders Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler. Both suffered shoulder injuries on Saturday. Hamilton leads the majors in steals by a wide margin, while Schebler is tied for the National League lead in homers. Garrett pitched well early this season, but then hit a rough patch. This will be the lefty's first start since May 25 when he went on the DL with a sore hip. Atlanta has faced only four southpaw starters this season, fewest in the majors.
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| 06-03-17 | Twins +100 v. Angels | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
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The Twins have won 19 of their last 26 road games. They've defeated the Angels seven of the past nine times and have a huge pitching edge here with Erwin Santana versus Matt Shoemaker. Santana has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season going 7-2 with a 1.75 ERA, best in the AL. Only twice in 11 starts this year has Santana surrendered more than one earned run. Opponents are batting a meager .140 against him. The right-handed Shoemaker is off a terrible start giving up four runs and seven hits in less than five innings against the Marlins. Minnesota is 13-3 during its last 16 road games versus a righty starter. Don't forget, too, the Angels are minus injured Mike Trout, one of the few everyday players worth something on the line.
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| 06-02-17 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
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I find this total too short in a pitching matchup of German Marquez versus Clayton Richard. The Rockies have scored 23 runs in their last four games if you discount a 5-0 loss to James Paxton. The Padres have scored 18 runs during their past four games. Colorado ranks fifth in the league in runs and batting average, while the Padres have some underrated hitters. I grasp that Petco Park is the opposite of Coors Field as far as favoring pitching, but I don't see these starters shutting down the opposing offenses and I'm very leery of San Diego's bullpen. Richard has a 4.79 ERA in 15 career appearances versus the Rockies. The Padres saw Marquez last September when he gave up three runs in 2 1/3 innings of relief.
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| 06-01-17 | Diamondbacks -118 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
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I respect that Miami is playing its best ball winning four in a row. I'm also aware this is a tough traveling spot for the Diamondbacks going to South Florida after playing 14 innings on Wednesday in Pittsburgh with heavy bullpen usage. But all of this is trumped by a pitching matchup of Zach Greinke versus Jeff Locke and that the Marlins may be without Dee Gordon, who could be rested due to a right leg injury. Greinke has regained his dominance after an off-season last year. He has dominated the Marlins in eight career starts going 4-0 with a 2.96 ERA against them. Locke will be making his season debut. He hasn't been good since the first half of the 2013 season. He has a career 6.57 ERA in five appearances, including four starts, versus the Diamondbacks.
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| 05-31-17 | Rockies +167 v. Mariners | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
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I find excellent value here with the underdog Rockies. Colorado is 8-2 when Antonio Senzatela has started. His 3.19 ERA is the lowest in Colorado history through 10 starts. Lefty James Paxton is makign his first start since going on the DL May 3 with a left forearm strain. Paxton is going to be on a pitch count. Seattle is 4-10 in Paxton's last 14 home starts. The Rockies have been dynamic on the road going 18-8. They also are 10-6 versus southpaws.
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| 05-30-17 | Rays v. Rangers +105 | 5-9 | Win | 105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
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Despite Martin Perez not being his usual reliable self when pitching at home, the Rangers led the Rays, 7-5, going into the seventh inning in yesterday's Memorial Day game. This was fine by me since I had Texas and it was one of my biggest plays of the month. Then the Rangers called on a clown named Tony Barnette to help get them out of a jam in the seventh inning. Barnette gave up a two-run double and three-run homer. The Rangers couldn't recover and lost, 10-8. I want to back the Rangers in the worst way today especially considering Tampa Bay's bullpen - not good to start with - is shot having pitched 16 innings during the last two days. Closer Alex Colome isn't going to be available either having thrown three innings and 46 pitches during the past two days. Texas is 8-1 in its last nine home games. Adrian Beltre finally is back in the lineup giving the Rangers tremendous power at the corners with Joey Gallo and his 16 homers moving to first base. Gallo showed he could field his new position well, too, Monday. The Rays have played 10 hours and 14 minutes of baseball during the last two days after playing for close to 6 1/2 hours on Sunday going 15 innings. I'm going to get involved with the Rangers here, especially as home 'dogs. But I can't give them a a major recommendation because they are starting Nick Martinez. Tampa Bay starter Matt Andriese is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in three lifetime starts versus the Rangers, but Martinez takes a backseat to most starters, including Andriese. The play is Texas. But the recommendation is small.
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| 05-30-17 | A's +152 v. Indians | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
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Trevor Bauer is hit and miss. Sonny Gray is healthy and coming on. A healthy Gray, without rust, is much superior to Bauer. So I'll take this high price with Gray and the A's. Gray has recovered from a strained right shoulder. He looked strong in his last start giving up one run on three hits and one walk with 11 strikeouts against the Marlins this past Wednesday. Gray has a 2.59 career ERA against the Indians. Bauer is capable of pitching a gem. But he's far more likley to throw a clunker. He has a 6.30 ERA on the season. Oakland is a respectable 5-5 in its last 10 games. Only three teams have hit more homers than the A's. Bauer has surrendered 11 homers in 50 innings.
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| 05-29-17 | Rays v. Rangers -115 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
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The spot and pitching matchup set up well for the Rangers, who play much better at home. Texas has won its last eight home games and 16 of its last 21 in Arlington. The Rangers draw the Rays after Tampa Bay just concluded a 6-hour, 26-minute, 15-inning Sunday game at Minnesota. The Rays went through seven pitchers in that game. Closer Alex Colome logged two innings throwing 36 pitches. He's probably not going to be able to pitch today if needed. Colome got the win on Sunday with the save going to Erasmo Ramirez, who threw 12 pitches. I point this out because Ramirez is slated to start this game. This is what Rays manager Kevin Cash was quoted as saying after first confirming Ramirez would start today: "He should be fine." Cash said. Note that Cash said "should" be fine rather than will be fine. Ramirez is 0-1 with a 5.72 ERA lifetime versus the Rangers in 11 career appearances. Regardless who starts for the Rays, I like the Rangers as an action play. I trust Martin Perez at home. The Rays obviously have a fatigue issue and there's the possibility of Adrian Beltre making his season debut for Texas afer being out all season with a calf injury. Beltre's presence would stablize the Rangers' batting order.
Perez is coming around after a disappointing April. He has a 3.16 ERA in four May starts. The southpaw has a history of pitching well at home. The Rangers are 14-6 in Perez's last 20 home starts. The Rays are just 6-11 against lefty starters this season. |
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| 05-29-17 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 9.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
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The marketplace has pushed this total past 9 in some places and that gets me involved on the under. |
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| 05-28-17 | Rays -101 v. Twins | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
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There are certain pitchers who just shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Kyle Gibson is one such hurler. Gibson was a huge disappointment last season with a 5.07 ERA and he's been just as horrible - if not worse - this season with an 8.62 ERA. Until the Twins cut ties with this guy, Minnesota is worth fading when Gibson pitches especially when it opens as a home favorite. The Twins have been overachieving winning 15 more games than at this point last year. However, those victories haven't come at home where they are 12-15. Gibson had been sent down to the minors. He emerged this past Monday and was lucky the Twins put up 14 runs against the Orioles in that game because he allowed six runs on seven hits and four walks in five innings to pick up a lucky victory. Gibson has been consistent. He's given up three or more earned runs in each of his seven starts. Teams often rest some everyday players on Sunday. That shouldn't be the case, though, with hot-hitting Corey Dickerson. He was rested yesterday. Dickerson is having a breakout season batting .330 with 12 homers, 14 doubles and 23 RBIs. Rays pitcher Alex Cobb is far from an ace. But he's been steady this month - 3.12 ERA in five May starts - and is a clear upgrade on Gibson. The Rays have won seven of their last 10 road games and have beaten the Twins 19 of the last 26 times at Target Field.
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| 05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates -113 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
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The Pirates could hardly touch Jacob deGrom Friday. Now they face Zach Wheeler with their best pitcher, Gerrit Cole, going. Wheeler is coming around from a long bout with arm trouble, but he's not deGrom. I see the Pirates bouncing back here and the price is right to get involved. Until beating Pittsburgh yesterday, the Mets had dropped six straight road games. The Mets have a shaky bullpen and their best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, isn't back yet from a hamstring injury. Wheeler has pitched well in his last four starts, but is giving up too many walks and can't be counted on to go deep into games. Wheeler walked five Angels in five innings during his last start. The right-handed Cole looks to rebound after his worst outing of the season when he gave up five runs on a season-high 10 hits in just 4 2/3 innings to the Braves this past Monday. That game was in Atlanta. Now Cole is home where his ERA is 1.67 in four starts at PNC Park. Opponents are batting .161 against him there. The Mets have lost nine of their last 13 when going against a right-handed starter. They also have dropped six of their past eight at PNC Park. Gregory Polanco played for the first time since May 14 because of a left hamstring strain. The Pirates' offense is better with him back in the lineup.
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| 05-26-17 | Braves v. Giants -110 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
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The Braves are playing better than expected. The Giants are playing worse than expected. Yet the Giants still have as many victories as the Braves. I'm looking for the Braves to regress to the norm especially without injured Freddie Freeman, their most productive player, and for the Giants to make a move now that they have returned home. As bad as they've been, the Giants still have a winning mark at AT&T Park. Outfielder Denard Span is back for San Francisco. That's huge and somewhat below-the-radar. The Giants are 17-8 the past 25 times at home when going against a lefty starter. They face southpaw Jaime Garcia today. Garcia hasn't pitched well on the road allowing 19 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings for an away ERA of nearly 5.00. Atlanta has dropped nine of its last 13 games at AT&T. The Braves take on Matt Cain here. I wouldn't touch Cain away from spacious AT&T, but he's been dynamic at home going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in four starts. Cain is past his prime, but he's a savvy veteran who knows how to pitch well in this park. Stephen Nover's Friday Free Play Orioles plus $.144 at Astros The ERA shows 6.65. But the buy sign is on for me here with Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman. I'm willing to take a calculated leap of faith with Glausman and the Orioles at this tidy road underdog price against Houston. Gausman is showing definite signs of turning around his year after a disastrous start. He's had two quality starts in his last three outings giving up two earned runs during those two good games. He pitched his best game of the season three starts ago holding Washington to two runs on five hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts. The Nationals lead the majors in runs, batting average and homers. The Orioles are four-for-20 with runners in scoring position during their last four games. Baltimore, though, ranks third in the league in batting with runners in scoring position. I see them getting back on track against Houston starter Joe Musgrove. Musgrove is the weakest of Houston's starters. He has a 5.63 ERA. Foes are batting .306 against him and have smacked nine homers off him, including six by right-handers. The Orioles have plenty of right-handed power. Musgrove lasted just three innings in his last start, which came at home against the Indians this past Sunday. He was blasted for seven runs allowing eight hits and walking three. Baltimore faced Musgrove once last season at home. The Orioles buried the Astros, 13-5, in that contest putting up eight runs on 11 hits and one walk against Musgrove in 5 1/3 innings. Houston is 1-5 in Musgrove's last six home starts. The Orioles were idle on Thursday, while the Astros had to use their best relievers to nip the Tigers, 7-6, Thursday. The spot is ripe for the Orioles. They are going against a very vulnerable starter with their own starter displaying positive signs of coming around. Baltimore has been good in these type of situations, too, winning nine of the last 13 times when going against a home team with a winning percentage of better than .600. |
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| 05-26-17 | Cubs +122 v. Dodgers | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
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I realize Jake Arrieta hasn't been as dominant as he's been the past couple of seasons and that Alex Wood is pitching extremely well. But the Cubs are the more powerful team - especially with the Dodgers minus injured Justin Turner and Joc Pederson - and Arrieta still rates an edge on Wood, who has yet to achieve consistency during his career. The Cubs have won 69 percent of Arrieta's last 54 road starts. Arrieta held the Brewers to one run, which was unearned, on five hits and six strikeouts with a walk in six innings during his last start this past Sunday. The Dodgers haven't scored in 16 consecutive innings when facing Arrieta. The southpaw Wood is coming off a 7-2 win against the offensively-challenged Marlins last Friday. Wood threw a season-high 96 pitches in that game. Following a quality Wood start, the Dodgers are 2-9 the past 11 times the next time he pitches. Chicago also is 10-4 the last 14 times facing a lefty starter, including 8-4 this season. The Cubs have smacked 26 homers in their last 14 games, second-most in the majors during this span.
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| 05-25-17 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
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Tampa Bay is an underrated offensive team and gets a shot today at fill-in starter Daniel Wright. Wright hasn't proven up to the task in the majors so far. He had a 5.54 ERA in limited innings with the Reds and Angels last season and he has a 5.68 ERA in 12 2/3 innings this season. The Angels sent Wright to Triple-A Salt Lake City where he's continued to struggle posting a 9.35 ERA in four starts allowing opposing hitters to bat .316 against him. I see this as an opportunity to go against a pitcher who hasn't proven major league worthy, or ready. But I also don't trust Tampa Bay starter Matt Andriese and a bad Rays bullpen. I believe the Angels can put up their share of runs, too.
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| 05-24-17 | Angels v. Rays -113 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
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Tampa Bay was shut out by the Angels on Tuesday. I see the Rays bouncing back here against journeyman Ricky Nolasco, who is way overdue to get shelled. Going into Tuesday's game, the Rays ranked first in the league in extra-base hits, were No. 2 in hits and homers and third in runs and on-base plus slugging percentage. The Angels are a poor road club losing 15 of 25. Tampa Bay has a plus 16 run differiental and has led in 33 of its last 36 games. Rays starter Erasmo Ramirez has been dependable this season and has a career 2.41 ERA in nine appearances versus the Angels, including five starts.
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| 05-24-17 | White Sox +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
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We know what we're likely to get with White Sox starter lefty Jose Quintana and that's a quality start. Quintana is one of the more respected pitchers in baseball. The White Sox have won four of Quintana's past five starts. But what are the Diamondbacks going to get from their starter today, Randall Delgado? They're hoping for maybe five solid innings. Delgado hasn't started in two years. He has a 4.05 ERA and is part of a bad and untrustworthy Diamondbacks bullpen that figures to see a lot of innings as this shapes up as a bullpen-by-committee game. Delgado is filling-in for Taijuan Walker, who is on the DL due to blister issues. I'd much rather have Quintana going for me then some Arizona combination of Delgado, Tom Wilhelmsen, Jorge De La Rosa and T.J. McFarland. Yet, Arizona opened the favorite. The Diamondbacks have a losing record versus lefties. They are 2-5 the last seven times facing a southpaw starter. Another key here is motivation. It's only fair to point out Arizona has the best home record in the majors at 20-8. The White Sox, though, will be looking to avoid a sweep. Quintana certainly should be motivated as he's prime trade bait and a heavy dose of scouts throughout both leagues will be watching him.
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| 05-23-17 | Rangers +184 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
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What would you say if you could take a hugh price on an underdog that is 11-1 in its last 12 games and whose starting pitcher has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts? You would take it, right? So would I. That's the case with the underdog Rangers here against Rick Porcello at Fenway Park. Boston is an underachieving one game above .500. Texas is three games above .500. Porcello isn't coming close to reproducing his Cy Young Award-winning season of a year ago. He's 2-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Porcello has surrendered 10 homers in 55 1/3 innings. Texas has hit the eighth-most homers in the majors. Porcello also has a 5.69 career ERA versus the Rangers in nine starts. So why, pray tell, are the Red Sox such a heavy favorite? One huge reason is Texas starter Andrew Cashner has failed to win 21 of his past 22 road starts. His lifetime road ERA is 4.85 compared to 2.82 at home. Cashner pitched for 4 1/2 seasons for the Padres at Petco Park. That explains some of the home/road difference. The key here is Cashner is healthy, which he hasn't been the last several years, and pitching well. He has a 1.89 ERA during his last three starts and a respectable 3.12 ERA in three road starts. The Red Sox have never faced him.
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| 05-23-17 | Royals +137 v. Yankees | 6-2 | Win | 137 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
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Just five days ago these two starting pitchers, Danny Duffy and Jordan Montgomery, squared off in Kansas City. The Royals won, 5-1. The Yankees couldn't solve Duffy, who pitched seven scoreless innings allowing only three hits and two walks while striking out 10. Montgomery yielded a career-high five earned runs in five innings. That was the rookie's second straight shaky start. So you have to wonder if the league has begun to adjust to him. Now the Royals get a second quick look at Montgomery, who has a 4.81 ERA. New York is 1-4 in Montgomery's last five starts. Keep in mind, the Yankees don't have injured closer Aroldis Chapman and their fill-in closer, Dellin Betances, carries a high fatigue rating having worked 2 1/3 innings the past two days throwing a combined 32 pitches. So why should things be much different in this rematch? I'll take this nice price to say they won't.
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| 05-22-17 | Pirates -119 v. Braves | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
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I expect the rebuilding Braves to start to tumble after losing Freddie Freeman, their best player. The Pirates are trending upward winning six of their last eight. This combination along with the pitching matchup puts me squarely on Pittsburgh today. Cole was outstanding two seasons ago. He's reverted back to that form this season. Cole has given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts posting a 1.98 ERA during this span. Pittsburgh is 5-0 lifetime against the Braves when Cole pitches. I am a fan of Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz. I do believe in his potential. But he has a bad history versus the Pirates and hasn't solved Atlanta's new SunTrust Park with a 6.35 ERA in three home starts. Foltynewicz is 0-3 career-wise versus the Pirates with a 9.00 ERA. Pittsburgh only scored one run on Sunday, but its offense has picked up. Prior to yesterday, the Pirates were averaging 5.6 runs in their last six games.
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| 05-21-17 | Rangers -119 v. Tigers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
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This is a low price to back Rangers ace Yu Darvish against Matt Boyd, the Tigers' No. 5 starter. Darvish is 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA during his last five starts. He's dominated the Tigers going 6-0 against them. He's been particularly strong at Comerica Park with a 2.03 ERA. The Tigers won't have Victor Martinez in their lineup and also could be minus Ian Kinsler, who left yesterday's game following tightness in his left hamstring. Boyd has a 5.18 ERA and is off his worst start of the season getting lit up by the Orioles to the tune of seven runs on eight hits in 2 1/3 innings this past Tuesday. Lifetime against the Rangers, Boyd is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in four appearances. Detroit beat Texas on Saturday. The Rangers had won 10 in a row before that loss averaging 6.4 runs per game during their win streak.
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| 05-21-17 | Angels -104 v. Mets | Top | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
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First, a reminder: The Mets aren't a very good team. They are 18-23 and had lost seven in a row until winning the first two games of this series. Injuries have reaked havoc on the Mets' highly promising pitching staff. The damage is so bad that veteran castoff southpaw Tommy Milone is getting the start here. The Brewers cut Milone after he posted a 5.14 ERA in three starts. Milone's ERA with the Mets is even worse at 5.90. He's not a big innings guy either and the Mets' vulnerable and disappointing bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. The Angels have a winning record versus lefty starters. Addison Reed took over for injured Jeurys Familia as New York's closer. He's not likely to be available after a 29-pitch, shaky outing Saturday. Angels starter Jesse Chavez has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his eight starts this year. He's held batters to a .176 average in three starts this month. Chavez is serviceable. That's more than I can say for Milone. Remember, too, that the Mets best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, is on the DL along with underrated middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera. |
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| 05-20-17 | Nationals -1.5 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
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The Nationals have lost three straight. They are in stop-the-pain mode and have just the pitcher to do that - Max Scherzer. Scherzer is the best right-hander in the National League. He's having another outstanding season this year going 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, second-best in the NL. The Nationals' bullpen has been shaky but should be better now with several late-inning relievers coming off the DL. Scherzer figures to pitch deep into the game, anyways, against a lackluster Atlanta lineup missing its best player, injured Freddie Freeman. Opponents are batting less than .200 against Scherzer. Scherzer dominated the Braves when he faced them a month ago at their new SunTrust Park giving up two hits in seven scoreless innings. The Nationals won that game, 3-1. Scherzer is 5-0 with a 3.12 ERA against Atlanta going back to last season. This is a real pitching mismatch as the Braves are going with Bartolo Colon, who turns 44 on Wednesday. Colon has really looked his age pitching for the Braves going 2-4 with a 6.80 ERA. Colon is facing a Nationals offense that leads the majors in runs, batting average and is No. 2 in homers. Washington has dominated this series winning 18 of the past 23 times. I believe this is a kill spot for the Nationals so I'm laying them on the run line in order to avoid paying such hefty juice. |
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| 05-20-17 | Red Sox -105 v. A's | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
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Boston is the superior team. The Red Sox are going against lefty Sean Manaea, who I regard as fade material. Yet the line is very competitive. The marketplace is concerned about Red Sox starter Drew Pomeranz, who hasn't been sharp his last two starts leaving his last one against Tampa Bay on Sunday after three innings due to tightness in his left triceps. I believe Pomeranz will come in with a big game here having said he corrected a mechanical flaw in his delivery. The lefty also said he is healthy. He certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team. Pomeranz has a strong history at Oakland's Coliseum having pitched for the A's in 2014 and 2015. He made nine starts there going 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA. Manaea doesn't have Pomeranz's talent. He's 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA. This is his second start since coming off the DL with a strained left shoulder. Manaea was smacked for four runs in five innings in a 6-5 loss to Seattle in his last start. He was wild once again with five walks. The A's are 1-5 the past six times Manaea has started. The Red Sox saw Manaea last season and pounded him for eight runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings. The Red Sox are 18-8, too, during their last 26 games versus a lefty starter. |
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| 05-19-17 | Royals +108 v. Twins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
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If the Royals, World Series champions just two years ago, are going to make a move in the AL Central this is their opportunity. The Royals trail the first-place Twins by 4 1/2 games. I know it's only May. But the Royals have a number of key players who are prospective free agents. If the Royals don't get their season turned around there will be a fire sale in Kansas City. So this is an important series for Kansas City. The Royals have been less than stellar on the road. However, Minnesota is 9-12 at home. The Royals catch the Twins having played a doubleheader on Thursday and have a hot pitcher, Nate Karns, going. The Twins are pitching Hector Santiago, a bottom of the rotation guy who had a 5.58 ERA last season and is off his worst game of the year. I've always been intrigued by Karns because of his high strikeout rate. He is pitching great right now going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three starts that include 29 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings during this stretch. Minnesota isn't hitting either. The Twins are averaging 2.3 runs during their last six games. Santiago was lit up by the Indians this past Sunday giving up six runs on seven hits - including three homers - in just 2 2/3 innings.
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| 05-18-17 | White Sox +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
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This has the makings of a being a wild game with a pitching matchup of Dylan Covey versus Sam Gaviglio. Covey is off his best start striking out a career-high nine batters in a 5-4 win against the Padres this past Saturday. Covey did that in just 4 1/3 innings as he was lifted after reaching 91 pitches. He won't have to deal with Robinson Cano, who is on the DL. This isn't a play on Covey, though. Rather it's a fade on Gaviglio and a Mariners bullpen that lacks a clear-cut closer. I'd rather take insurance with plus 1 1/2 runs - especially with the White Sox being the visitor and getting an extra at bat against Seattle's vulnerable bullpen - then take a chance on a straight-up White Sox victory. The White Sox just got swept three games by the Angels. They remain on the West Coast. If you give them 1 1/2 runs, the White Sox would 13-9 in their last 22 games. That's a winning percentage of 59 percent. Seattle would be 2-8 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. The Mariners have allowed five or more runs in six of their last nine games. Seattle averages 4.8 runs per game. So if the White Sox put up four-to-six runs that should do the trick especially with the added 1 1/2 run line cushion. This shouldn't be too much to ask of the White Sox. Gaviglio will be making his first big league start. He last pitched one week ago throwing two innings of relief giving up one run on two hits. Seattle has four-fifths of its starting pitching rotation on the DL. Gavilglio is a desperation option.
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| 05-17-17 | Brewers v. Padres -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
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Jhoulys Chacin is a stiff. But at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Chacin is a monster. He's 2-0 there this season with a 0.45 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Chacin will be facing a Milwaukee lineup that will be without Ryan Braun and probably Eric Thames and Travis Shaw, too. That's a combined 28 homers and 74 RBIs missing. Those are the Brewers' three leading home run hitters. Braun is the Brewers' best outfielder while Thames and Shaw are Milwaukee's cornermen. Now you know why the Padres are laying a price. I'm not buying Matt Garza either. He has pitched well in his past four starts. Don't expect a fifth straight good start. Garza is sporting a 2.66 ERA. Regression is in order. Garza's ERA the past two years have been 4.51 and 5.63. He surrendered 23 homers two seasons ago. The Padres are on pace to easily set a franchise record for homers in a season with 211 after smacking a team-best 177 last season.
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| 05-17-17 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
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I'm not fond of either starting pitcher, nor of either team's bullpen. Both teams are swinging hots bats, too. So I find this total short. The White Sox are averaging six runs per game during their last six games. The Angels are putting up 5.2 runs per game during their past five games. I see offense prevailing here with a starting pitching matchup of Miguel Gonzalez versus Matt Shoemaker. Gonzalez is in bad form with a 6.62 ERA in his last three starts. He's fortunate his ERA isn't even higher during this span as he's allowed 28 hits and six walks during his last 17 2/3 innings surrendering four homers in this time frame. Gonzalez pitches worse on the road and Shoemaker pitches worse at home where his ERA is 5.48. Shoemaker also has a career 4.15 ERA against the White Sox. Slated home plate umpire Brian Gorman has shown a slight bias to the Over during the last two years with 56 percent of his 25 games behind the plate resulting in an over. The weather forecast is for a slight wind blowing out to left field.
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| 05-16-17 | Rockies +104 v. Twins | Top | 7-3 | Win | 104 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
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Two of the surprise teams get together to begin a series today with the Rockies at the Twins. Both are leading their respective divisions. I believe the Rockies are the superior team. Minnesota is due for regression and I'm not a fan of Twins starter Phil Hughes, who takes the mound today. Hughes has a lifetime 4.43 ERA.It was 5.95 last season. His ERA is 4.74 this season. I regard him as one of the least effective starters in the majors. I'm much more intrigued by 24-year-old rookie Kyle Freeland, who starts for Colorado today. He's the Rockies' best starting pitcher in my view with Jon Gray sidelined. Freeland had a bad inning against the world champion Cubs in his last start. Prior to that, though, Freeland had allowed just two earned runs in his three previous starts spanning 19 1/3 innings. Colorado is 4-1 in his last five starts. The Rockies have been dynamite on the road going 11-5. Minnesota has a losing home record this season. Going back to last season, the Twins have dropped nine of their last 13 at Target Field. Colorado has the superior bullpen - no closer has been better than Greg Holland - and is a perfect 9-0 in one-run games. The Rockies' ability to win close games is proof to me that they are real this season compared to past years when they couldn't win narrow outcomes.
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| MLB Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 07-23-17 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Indians | 1-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
| 07-23-17 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
| 07-22-17 | Rangers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
| 07-22-17 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
| 07-21-17 | Yankees v. Mariners +115 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
| 07-20-17 | Rangers +103 v. Orioles | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
| 07-19-17 | Nationals -121 v. Angels | 0-7 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
| 07-19-17 | Yankees v. Twins +101 | 1-6 | Win | 101 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
| 07-18-17 | Cubs -110 v. Braves | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
| 07-18-17 | Nationals v. Angels OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
| 07-18-17 | Rays v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
| 07-17-17 | Rays -101 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
| 07-17-17 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
| 07-16-17 | Diamondbacks -106 v. Braves | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
| 07-15-17 | Giants v. Padres +144 | 3-5 | Win | 144 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
| 07-15-17 | Giants v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
| 07-14-17 | Giants -105 v. Padres | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
| 07-09-17 | Marlins v. Giants -131 | 10-8 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
| 07-09-17 | White Sox v. Rockies -121 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
| 07-08-17 | Royals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
| 07-07-17 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
| 07-07-17 | Padres v. Phillies -120 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
| 07-06-17 | MIAMI v. ST. LOUIS -148 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
| 07-05-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
| 07-05-17 | Giants +165 v. Tigers | 5-4 | Win | 165 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
| 07-05-17 | Padres v. Indians OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
| 07-04-17 | Reds v. Rockies -148 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -148 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
| 07-04-17 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | 4-11 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
| 07-03-17 | Marlins v. Cardinals -139 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
| 07-03-17 | Orioles -106 v. Brewers | 1-8 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
| 07-02-17 | Twins +128 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
| 07-02-17 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
| 07-02-17 | Phillies +147 v. Mets | 7-1 | Win | 147 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
| 07-01-17 | Marlins v. Brewers -128 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
| 07-01-17 | Cubs -112 v. Reds | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
| 06-30-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 7.5 | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
| 06-30-17 | Marlins v. Brewers UNDER 10 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
| 06-29-17 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
| 06-29-17 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
| 06-28-17 | Mets -101 v. Marlins | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
| 06-28-17 | Rays v. Pirates -123 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
| 06-28-17 | Phillies v. Mariners -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
| 06-27-17 | Braves v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
| 06-27-17 | Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
| 06-26-17 | Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
| 06-25-17 | Mets v. Giants -134 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
| 06-24-17 | Tigers v. Padres -102 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
| 06-23-17 | Mets +106 v. Giants | Top | 11-4 | Win | 106 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
| 06-22-17 | Cubs -122 v. Marlins | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
| 06-22-17 | White Sox -118 v. Twins | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
| 06-21-17 | Pirates v. Brewers -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
| 06-21-17 | Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
| 06-20-17 | Tigers +137 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
| 06-19-17 | Padres v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
| 06-19-17 | Nationals -108 v. Marlins | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
| 06-18-17 | Cardinals -111 v. Orioles | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
| 06-17-17 | Cleveland Indians - Game #2 v. Minnesota Twins - Game #2 +123 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
| 06-17-17 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
| 06-16-17 | Nationals -156 v. Mets | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
| 06-15-17 | Royals v. Angels -128 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
| 06-14-17 | Orioles -126 v. White Sox | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
| 06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians -142 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
| 06-13-17 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Tigers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
| 06-12-17 | Rockies +126 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
| 06-11-17 | Mets v. Braves -115 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
| 06-10-17 | Royals -112 v. Padres | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
| 06-09-17 | A's v. Rays -117 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
| 06-08-17 | Twins v. Mariners -113 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
| 06-07-17 | Giants +122 v. Brewers | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
| 06-07-17 | Indians v. Rockies +115 | 1-8 | Win | 115 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
| 06-06-17 | Nationals -116 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
| 06-05-17 | Nationals +118 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 118 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
| 06-04-17 | Braves v. Reds UNDER 10 | 13-8 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
| 06-03-17 | Twins +100 v. Angels | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
| 06-02-17 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
| 06-01-17 | Diamondbacks -118 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
| 05-31-17 | Rockies +167 v. Mariners | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
| 05-30-17 | Rays v. Rangers +105 | 5-9 | Win | 105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
| 05-30-17 | A's +152 v. Indians | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
| 05-29-17 | Rays v. Rangers -115 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
| 05-29-17 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 9.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
| 05-28-17 | Rays -101 v. Twins | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
| 05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates -113 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
| 05-26-17 | Braves v. Giants -110 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
| 05-26-17 | Cubs +122 v. Dodgers | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
| 05-25-17 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
| 05-24-17 | Angels v. Rays -113 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
| 05-24-17 | White Sox +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
| 05-23-17 | Rangers +184 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
| 05-23-17 | Royals +137 v. Yankees | 6-2 | Win | 137 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
| 05-22-17 | Pirates -119 v. Braves | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
| 05-21-17 | Rangers -119 v. Tigers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
| 05-21-17 | Angels -104 v. Mets | Top | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
| 05-20-17 | Nationals -1.5 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
| 05-20-17 | Red Sox -105 v. A's | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
| 05-19-17 | Royals +108 v. Twins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
| 05-18-17 | White Sox +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
| 05-17-17 | Brewers v. Padres -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
| 05-17-17 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
| 05-16-17 | Rockies +104 v. Twins | Top | 7-3 | Win | 104 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
