Not only are the Red Sox superior to the Rays, but the pitching matchup is right here, too. 
The buy sign is back on for southpaw David Price, who has allowed four earned runs in his last two starts spanning 14 innings. Price has a 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in these last two outings. The Rays have a losing record against lefties, losing eight of their last 11 to southpaws. 
Rays rookie southpaw Blake Snell has a 1.54 WHIP. His 3.06 ERA is bound to go up because he's been lucky to leave a lot of baserunners. The Red Sox are No. 1 in many of the key offensive categories, including runs and batting average. Boston also has a winning record against southpaws. 
The Red Sox faced Snell on June 27 getting four runs on eight hits and four walks against him in 5 1/3 innings. 

These two teams have combined to go over the total 13 straight times. Look for that trend to continue here as both teams are swinging hot bats and the situation sets up well for at least eight runs to be scored. The Mets have scored five or more runs in six of their last seven games, while the Giants are averaging more than six runs per game during their last eight contests. 
The Mets' offense is far more dangerous now that Yoenis Cespedes is in the lineup. New York has smacked 29 homers in its last 20 games and draw flyball pitcher Jeff Samardzija, who isn't going to be helped by 14-to-17 mph winds blowing out. 
Samardzjia has a bad history, too, versus the Mets with an 0-3 lifetime record and 8.72 ERA. 
Mets starter Noah Syndergaard doesn't have a good history either against the Giants with a lifetime 6.17 ERA in 11 2/3 innings. The Giants can attack Syndergaard with power and on the bases with their renewed emphasis on speed. No pitcher has allowed more stolen bases this season than Syndergaard. The over has cashed 10 of the past 14 times Syndergaard has taken the mound.
Slated home plate umpire Clint Fagan has been a plus to over bettors. The Over has cashed 56 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the past two seasons.

I don't see the Pirates getting swept at home by the Marlins. Despite losing the first two games of this series, Pittsburgh still has defeated Miami 11 of the last 14 meetings at home. The last time the Marlins pulled a road sweep was way back in April. 
The pitching matchup sets up well for the Pirates. They draw Jose Urena. The Marlins are 1-8 in his last nine starts. Urena is another pitcher who only is in a big league rotation because of injuries. He has a hideous 6.80 ERA. Urena has seen Pittsburgh twice. He's pitching 5 2/3 innings against the Pirates in his brief career giving up nine runs and 13 hits.
Pittsburgh starter Ryan Vogelsong has a 2.55 ERA in three starts since coming off the DL following facial injuries sustained from being hit by a pitch. Teama often rest starters on Sunday and the Pirates have better depth than the Marlins, who are minus top slugger Giancarlo Stanton. 

Drew Smyly has turned his season around with five consecutive quality starts. Smyly has a 3.16 ERA since the All-Star break. Smyly has a 3.25 career ERA in 10 starts versus the Rangers holding them to a .205 average. 
Adrian Beltre is one of the few Rangers who has given Smyly trouble. However, Beltre may not play as he could take bereavement leave after finding out his grandfather passed away before last night's game. 
The second part of this handicap is a fade on Texas starter Martin Perez, who has a huge road/home bias. He's 1-7 with a 6.00 ERA in 12 road starts this season. Perez is a groundball pitcher. So he doesn't figure to be helped playing on Astroturf here. 
Another plus for Tampa Bay is the Rays are expected to have back underrated Logan Forsythe. He's been out with back spasms, but is expected to play. 

The price is low enough to back Aaron Sanchez, a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate, against slumping Josh Tomlin.
Sanchez is 11-1 with a 2.74 ERA in his last 19 starts. Only once in his past 10 starts has Sanchez given up more than two earned runs. Sanchez has been strong on the road going 7-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. 
Tomlin started the season in high style going 11-3. But his ERA then was 3.43 and his metrics painted a different story. Now it's caught up to him. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 9.37 ERA in his last three starts. Going back to his last seven starts, Tomlin is 2-5 with a 6.26 ERA. Toronto is 21-10 the past 31 times facing a righty. 
Tomlin also has given up 29 homers, tied for most in the majors with James Shields. Toronto has hit the second-most homers in the majors and is sixth in runs. The Blue Jays expect to have the left side of their infield - Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki - back in the starting lineup today. They both missed last night's game. 

I love the Diamondbacks here because the price doesn't reflect what a huge starting pitching edge Arizona has with Zack Greinke facing Jarred Cosart. 
Perhaps the oddsmaker is influenced by Greinke's last start, which could have been the worst of his career. He surrendered nine earned runs on 10 hits in less than two innings this past Sunday. That was against the Red Sox, the best offensive team in baseball. Greinke had won nine consecutive decisions until that game. 
I see the prideful Greinke coming back strong here against a much weaker opponent. The numbers certainly favor Greinke in a big way. His teams are 30-7 during the past two years for a winning percentage of 81 percent. Discount that Red Sox debacle and Greinke's road ERA is 2.14 this season and Arizona is 8-0 in his last eight road outings. 
Greinke has a strong history, too, against San Diego with a 7-1 career mark and 1.91 ERA in 14 starts. 
Cosart probably shouldn't even be in a big league rotation. He has a 5.03 ERA and has more walks than strikeouts. Cosart began the season with the Marlins, who demoted him after he posted a 5.95 ERA in four starts. Cosart didn't fare that much better in the minors with a 4.09 ERA and a losing record. 
The desperate Padres picked him up. Cosart actually pitched well in his last start. So that may be a reason why this line is much lower than I anticipated. I can't see Cosart putting together back-to-back strong performances. The Diamondbacks are swinging hot bats scoring 36 runs in their last four games.
The Diamondbacks have won five of the past eight times at Petco Park and are two games under .500 on the road while the Padres are two games below .500 at home. 

Jose Fernandez takes the mound today for the Marlins. We need to establish two things about Fernandez that seem to be escaping the oddsmaker's attention. Fernandez has been far from dominant since the All-Star break - 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA - and he's not good on the road where he's 3-4 with a 3.93 ERA this season. 
The Marlins haven't been that good either dropping 10 of their last 15 games. 
Yet Fernandez's reputation registers so strong with the marketplace that the Marlins are priced way too high today facing Cincinnati's most consistent pitcher. 
Dan Straily has outpitched Fernandez the past month posting a 2.13 ERA in his last six starts. Hitters are batting .215 against him on the season. The Reds have won each of his past six starts. 
The Reds' bullpen can be brutal. But the Marlins are down their best reliever with closer A.J. Ramos on the DL. 
I understand you can't make the Reds a favorite against Fernandez. But this price is heavily, heavily inflated. 

Mike Folytnewicz has flashed star potential. This is a high ceiling pitcher who should pitch well in this spot. Folytnewicz defeated Stephen Strasburg and  Adam Wainwright in his last two starts. He's certainly capable of defeating Kyle Gibson, a lower-tier pitcher.

The Twins are likely still to be missing their second-best power hitter, Miguel Sano. He's sidelined with a sore elbow that prevents him from throwing. The Braves are home so the Twins can't DH Sano. 
Gibson is having a terrible August with a 7.98 ERA in three starts this month. He is 2-7 lifetime in interleague play with a 6.10 ERA. 
There will be a rare buzz for this Braves home game because shortstop Dansby Swanson, Atlanta's crown rookie jewel, is scheduled to make his big league debut after the Braves traded worthless Erick Aybar. 

If given 1 1/2 runs, the Phillies would be 13-3 in their last 16 games. They still hold playoff hopes and have won their past four games. 
The Phillies just faced Dodgers starter Kenta Madeda eight days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings. This is another quick turnaround look at him. 
Phillies starter Vince Velasquez has been much better when pitching at Citizens Bank Park going 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his nine home starts this season. Velasquez is from Southern California and has a strong revenge motivate after the Dodgers roughed him up eight days ago in a 9-3 loss at Dodger Stadium. 
The Phillies' bullpen has been overworked, but got a much needed day off yesterday with the Phillies being idle. 

Seattle is playing well wining 10 of its last 12. The Angels are a train wreck right now losing 10 in a row with all but one of those defeats coming by multiple runs. 
The Angels' confidence is down and their concentration could be off, too, returning home after being gone for 11 days. 
Seattle has hit 51 more homers than the Angels and owns a starting pitching and bullpen edge. 
The buy sign is back on with Felix Hernandez after he permitted only one run on three hits in seven innings against the Tigers five days ago. Hernandez is back in shape after missing seven weeks due to a strained right calf. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 20 innings. 
Ricky Nolasco will be making his second start for the Angels. He has a 7.00 lifetime ERA at Angel Stadium in three starts. Nolasco is 4-9 with a 5.14 ERA. He had a 5.38 ERA last year. At 33, Nolasco is who he is - a journeyman innings-eater. 
The Angels don't have the bullpen arms to back Nolasco. Joe Smith is traded. Closer Huston Street is on the DL. So is Cam Bedrosian, who had taken over the closer role when Street went on the DL. 
The Mariners, meanwhile, have solved their closer issues with Edwin Diaz stepping up to fill the role with flair and effectiveness. He's given up one run in his last 15 appearances. 

Monday Bonus Play

Rangers minus $1.55 hosting A's

There are pitchers with strong home/road tendencies. Texas' Martin Perez is one of those. The lefty is 1-7 with a 6.00 in 12 road starts this season, but 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA at home. 
Perez is at his finest pitching at home versus sub .500 opponents. That's the spot here. The Rangers are 12-2 the past 14 times Perez has pitched in Arlington against a foe with a losing record. The Rangers have one of the more underrated bullpens after trading for Jeremy Jeffress to go with Matt Bush and closer Sam Dyson. 
The A's are 5-11 in their last 16 games and have dropped 13 of their last 17 when facing a southpaw starter. 
Trades and injuries have left the A's thin in the starting rotation. So journeyman Ross Detwiler gets another start. Detwiler came up from the minors to post his first victory as a starter since 2013 this past Wednesday in his Oakland debut after the Indians traded him. 
The Rangers are well acquainted with Detwiler. They released him last season after he went 0-5 with a 7.12 ERA in 17 appearances, including five starts. 

There are pitchers with strong home/road tendencies. Texas' Martin Perez is one of those. The lefty is 1-7 with a 6.00 in 12 road starts this season, but 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA at home. 
Perez is at his finest pitching at home versus sub .500 opponents. That's the spot here. The Rangers are 12-2 the past 14 times Perez has pitched in Arlington against a foe with a losing record. The Rangers have one of the more underrated bullpens after trading for Jeremy Jeffress to go with Matt Bush and closer Sam Dyson. 
The A's are 5-11 in their last 16 games and have dropped 13 of their last 17 when facing a southpaw starter. 
Trades and injuries have left the A's thin in the starting rotation. So journeyman Ross Detwiler gets another start. Detwiler came up from the minors to post his first victory as a starter since 2013 this past Wednesday in his Oakland debut after the Indians traded him. 
The Rangers are well acquainted with Detwiler. They released him last season after he went 0-5 with a 7.12 ERA in 17 appearances, including five starts. 

The rebuilding Brewers are 8-12 this month going nowhere this season. The Reds aren't going anywhere either. But they have shown some life, sparked by Joey Votto's bat coming alive, winning 15 of their last 24 games. 
The pitching matchup is Cody Reed versus Wily Peralta. Don't be fooled by Reed's 6.36 ERA. The rookie has much better metrics. He's been dogged by bad luck. That luck is due to change. He pitched six scoreless innings in his last start this past Monday against the Cardinals. 
Peralta has been the Brewers' most disappointing pitcher. He was so horrible that the Brewers sent him to the minors where he continued to struggle. Now, like a bad penny, he's back. Until Peralta shows something, though, he remains fade material especially as chalk. 

Enough is enough. I don't see San Francisco losing for a sixth straight time with Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner hasn't slipped. He has a 2.20 ERA in his last seven starts. The Orioles have never faced him. 
The Orioles aren't so strong offensively in spacious West Coast parks. They have scored two runs or less in four of their last seven games. 
Baltimore has lost 19 of the past 26 times Kevin Gausman has pitched on the road. They also are 5-14 the past 19 times Gausman has been on the mound versus an above .500 opponent.
The Giants, on the other hand, are 10-2 when Bumgarner has pitched at home against a foe with a winning record.
Look for the Giants to start playing better now that Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, Denard Span and Angel Pagan are all back healthy.  

I understand Jacob deGrom is the nuts at Citi Field. But you simply can't have a total this low when the other starting pitcher is Jarred Cosart, who I regard as maybe the worst starting pitcher in the National League.
Cosart was terrible for the Marlins in April. Cosart was terrible in the minors when he was shipped down. Cosart has been terrible in his brief stay with the Padres. The guy hasn't won in nearly a year. 
Both bullpens have fatigue issues, too. 
The Padres are a much stronger hitting team on the road. The Mets' lineup isn't so weak anymore with Yoenis Cespedes on the DL since adding Jay Bruce. The over has cashed in seven of the Mets' last eight home games. 
The weather forecast is favorable for offense with the wind blowing out to left at 10-15 mph. 

The Giants are a sound investment as underdogs here. The Marlins are weakening themselves in the bullpen by starting David Phelps, who has been a key setup reliever for them. 
Phelps' ERA went up for the fourth straight month in July. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game. The Marlins are without injured A.J. Ramos. Their bullpen is further thinned with Phelps part of the starting rotation now. Fernando Rodney is the team's new closer with Ramos on the DL. He's not likely to be available, however, having worked an inning during each of the past three days. 
Giants starter Jeff Samardzija was an All-Star just two seasons ago. He's struggled in his last three starts, but as a flyball pitcher he's aided whenever throwing in a pitcher's park, which Marlins Park is. Samardzija is 4-1 with a 3.81 ERA in 16 career appearances against the Marlins. This is a good time to get on him when his stock his low. Samardzija catches a break, too, in that Giancarlo Stanton isn't expected to play due to a sore leg. Miami has lost five of the past six times when facing a right-handed starter.

Wily Peralta is a horrible pitcher. The Brewers demoted him after he posted a 6.68 ERA in his first 13 starts this season. Peralta wasn't doing any better in the minors where he had a 6.31 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 10 starts. 
But with Junior Guerra on the DL, the Brewers elected to bite the bullet rather than rush any of their youngsters up to the majors. So they promoted Peralta. It's not a coincidence the over is 19-7-2 (73%) the past 28 times Peralta has pitched for the Brewers. 
Braves starter Tyrell Jenkins has a 4.33 ERA and is plagued by wildness. He's permitted at least four walks in each of his last four starts.
Jenkins has yet to go more than six innings in a game. Peralta certainly doesn't figure to be around long either. Both bullpens, though, carry a high fatigue rating after last night's 12 inning game. 
If you discount a 1-0 loss to the Cardinals, the Braves are averaging more than seven runs per game during their last five games. The Brewers are averaging seven runs per game during their last three games. 

I understand going under the total is a dangerous thing to do at Coors Field. But keep in mind not only who the pitchers are for this matchup - Cole Hamels and underrated Tyler Anderson - but that there is no DH, no Trevor Story, probably no Carlos Beltran and a slight wind that will be blowing in. 
Hamels could be the top road pitcher in baseball with an 8-2 away mark and 1.90 ERA. He's experienced against the Rockies and Coors Field from when he pitched with the Phillies holding a 3.21 career ERA versus Colorado and having made five starts in Colorado. Hamels won't have to deal with Story either. The Rockies go from "A" offensive production at shortstop to "F" because of Story's poor-hitting replacement infielders. 
Anderson will be making his 11th career start. His ERA is 3.25. That's the lowest ERA for a Colorado starter through 10 starts in team history. Anderson has been fine pitching at Coors going 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in seven home starts. He's been touched for just three homers in those seven starts at Coors. 

This isn't the mismatch it looks like on paper. 
Kyle Hendricks has been great when pitching at Wrigley Field. Not so, though, when pitching on the road where he's 2-6 with a 3.75 ERA. 
Rookie Sean Manaea has been pitching better for Oakland. He has a 2.51 ERA in his last five starts. Oakland is 4-0 in his last four home starts.

The Astros are 2-7 in their last nine games and pitching rookie Joe Musgrove, who has been used in the bullpen. I don't see Musgrove pitching long in this game and the Astros have a vulnerable bullpen.
Yu Darvish hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in four starts since coming off the DL. Darvish is getting stronger and stronger. He's recorded 35 strikeouts in his last 22 2/3 innings. 

The price is low enough to get into play with a pitching mismatch of Jacob deGrom versus Anibal Sanchez. 
The Tigers have never faced deGrom, who has a 1.69 ERA since the All-Star break and has been the Mets' best pitcher. The key arms in the Mets' bullpen are rested. In nine career interleague starts, deGrom has a 2.25 ERA. 
Sanchez hasn't been good the last four years since losing speed off his fastball. He's 6-11 with a 6.26 ERA this season, only in the rotation because of multiple injuries to Detroit's pitchers. This will be Sanchez's 12th lifetime start versus the Mets. He has a 4.45 ERA against them. 

Look for the Rockies to bounce back after losing on Friday when they blew a ninth-inning lead. 
Colorado is tough at Coors Field where it has a winning home record. The Rockies also are 8-2 following a defeat.
Padres starter Andrew Cashner is one of many pitchers who has trouble pitching at Coors Field where he has a 6.94 lifetime ERA in 23 1/3 innings.
The Marlins have yet to face Colorado starter Chad Bettis, who is pitching better. He's 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA in his last five starts. The Rockies have won the past five times Bettis has pitched at Coors.
The Marlins have lost nine of the last 11 times when on the road against an opponent with a winning home mark. 

On paper this total looks right. Aaron Sanchez and Danny Duffy are having career seasons. But there are red flags for them. Sanchez already has pitched a career-high 139 1/3 innings this season. 
Duffy is coming off a near no-hitter and 16 strikeouts during his last start this past Monday against the Rays. Rarely do non-elite pitchers throw back-to-back dominant games. Duffy also has a bad track record versus Toronto with a 6.97 ERA in five lifetime appearances, including four starts. 
Duffy's lowest ERA has been on the road and in day games. He has a 3.79 home ERA and 3.46 ERA in night games compared to 2.17 ERA on the road and and 1.42 during sunlight. 
Note, too, that Brian Gorman is slated to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed in nine of 11 games he has been behind the plate this season. 

I'll lay this price with the superior team that has a major edge, too, in starting pitching.
Corey Kluber has resembled his Cy Young Award self of 2014 lately giving up one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. He's allowed just four runs during this span in 29 innings. 
Yankees starter CC Sabathia has run out of gas failing to turn in a quality start during seven of his last eight starts. His ERA during his last eight games is 6.85. Sabathia can no longer be bailed out by the Yankees' backend of their bullpen with Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller gone. 

Not only does Boston have the better offense, but the Red Sox also have the superior starting pitcher going here. Yet they opened underdogs. 
The Red Sox have scored the most runs in baseball while also leading in batting average, RBI, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They are 11-3 in their last 14 interleague games. 
Boston starter Steven Wright has a 2.37 ERA. He's a knuckleballer, who should be fine pitching at night in Dodger Stadium. He's vulnerable when pitching in rainy conditions, which won't be the case here. Wright should be pumped being a Southern California native making his first start at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers rarely see a knuckleball pitcher being in the National League. 
The Red Sox have seen plenty of Dodgers lefty Scott Kazmir, who has a 3.99 ERA in 29 career starts versus Boston. Kazmir has a 4.41 ERA on the season. Boston is 7-2 the past nine times facing a southpaw. 

This is a 4:05 p.m. West Coast starting time, which is extremely rare for an Angels home game. There is a history of these Angels home games going under at that starting time because hitters have trouble picking up the ball due to the glare of the sun setting above the third base side. People who have attended these starting time games know what I'm talking about. 
This isn't a problem during the Angels' usual 7 p.m. starting times games, but for these rare home games that start three hours earlier the sun plays havoc with hitters. Albert Pujols has been quoted as saying after one of these 4 p.m. games than he never could see the ball when batting. 
A's starter Jesse Hahn last pitched on July 24 and pitched extremely well holding the Rays to one run on five hits with a five-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in 7 2/3 innings. Hahn certainly won't lack for motivation pitching for a rotation spot with Rich Hill dealt to the Dodgers. 
Ricky Nolasco makes his first start for the Angels. He won't have to worry about Josh Reddick, who was one of the A's best hitters but was traded to the Dodgers. Nolasco is well traveled, but has given up only one earned run during two of his past three starts. Nolasco hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during four of his last five starts going at least six innings in all but one of those starts. 
Eric Cooper is slated to be the home plate umpire. The under has cashed 75 percent the past 16 times Cooper has been behind the plate. 

Gerrit Cole has been an elite pitcher and he's rounding back into that form since missing a month because of a strained right triceps. He's been getting better and better since returning from the DL culminating in his last start when he held the Mariners to one run on three hits and no walks with six strikeouts in a complete game performance. Now he draws the Braves, who are last in runs and homers. 

Cole is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three lifetime starts versus Atlanta. 
Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz also is displaying his vast potential after being sidelined. He's been at his best at Turner Field posting a 2.83 ERA there. Jim Johnson has solidified the Braves' closer role winning NL Player of the Week honors this past week saving four games. 

The Orioles have gone under the total an amazing 17 times in their last 19 games, including 14-1-1 under in their past 16 home games. Look for that trend to continue in this matchup. 
Rangers starter Yu Darvish is rounding into his stud form. This is his fourth start since coming off the DL. He has a 3.31 ERA in his first three starts and is getting stronger with each outing. The Rangers upgraded their bullpen picking up Brewers closer Jeremy Jeffress at the trade deadline. Jeffress provides the Rangers a quality set-up man in front of closer Sam Dyson. 
The Orioles have scored more than three runs just twice in their last seven games. 
Both bullpens are rested as the teams were idle on Monday.
Dylan Bundy makes his fourth start for Baltimore. He, too, has been getting better since coming off the DL. He no-hit the Rockies for five innings during his previous start finishing with eight strikeouts and one walk in 5 2/3 innings. Bundy has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two starts. The Orioles' bullpen owns a 2.70 ERA at home. 

This game opened priced much lower than it should be because CC Sabathia is a big-name starter while Logan Verrett is not. 

Sabathia, though, is 35 and has logged more than 3,000 innings. The southpaw is at the end of his career and is dragging as the season hits August. Sabathia has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The Mets have a winning record versus lefties. 
The Yankees are a demoralized bunch after management essentially pulled the plug on their season dealing their two best relief pitchers, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, for prospects considerably weakening what used to be a strong bullpen. 
Verrett has a respectable 3.29 home ERA and 3.44 ERA in his last three starts. He held the Cardinals to three runs on five hits in seven innings during his last start this past Wednesday. The Yankees have never faced Verrett. 

Just because the Cubs struck gold with another failed Oriole, Jake Arrieta, doesn't mean they can do it with Brian Matusz. As good as the Cubs are, and playing at home, I disagree that they should be favored in a matchup of Matusz against Felix Hernandez.
The Orioles gave up on Matusz after he went 27-41 with a 4.85 ERA in 279 career games for them. The Braves traded for him this season and then released him. 
Hernandez hasn't been his usual dominant self this season, but he's still an elite pitcher at 30.This will be his third start since coming off the DL after being sidelined with a strained right calf that obviously affected his pitching. None of the current Cubs have faced Hernandez since the last time Hernandez pitched against Chicago was 2010.
The Mariners are in the top 10 in scoring. Only two teams have hit more homers than Seattle. 

Stud versus underachiever. That's what we have in this matchup. Carlos Martinez doesn't get a lot of publicity, but he's a star and he's at his best on the road.
Andrew Cashner has been a dud the past couple of years after showing early promise. Going from the Padres to the Marlins isn't going to change that. 
Let's begin with Martinez, who is having another superb season at 10-6 with a 2.87 ERA. He's 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA in eight road outings this season. St. Louis has won 77 percent of his past 22 away starts. 
Now let's examine Cashner. His ERA was 4.34 last year. This season he's 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA. Cashner is 15-30 during the last three years. He hasn't reached the seventh inning in any of his last seven starts. The Marlins have bullpen fatigue issues after starter Colin Rea only went 3 1/3 innings on Saturday.
The Cardinals own the best road mark in the majors at 31-18. This is a bounce back game for them after an embarrassing 11-0 loss yesterday.  

Question: Which team has the worst road record in the majors? Step to the front if you said the defending world champion Royals. They have dropped 34 of their 51 away games and have just about faded from playoff contention trailing the Indians by 10 games in the AL Central. 
This is another bad road matchup for Kansas City with Ian Kennedy going against Martin Perez.
Kennedy has been a major disappointment. He is 0-3 with a 6.90 ERA this month. Kansas City is 2-8 with Kennedy on the mound since June. Kennedy, a flyball pitcher, is especially vulnerable at this ballpark on a hot, muggy night where the ball can really carry. Heavy trade rumors haven't helped Kennedy's mental state. He is 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA lifetime against the Rangers in three starts.  
Perez has been going through a tough stretch, too, but he pitches much better in Arlington where he is 6-1 with a 2.69 ERA. Only one of Perez's last five starts have been at home. The Rangers have won the last six times the lefty has pitched at home and are 21-8 in Perez's last 29 starts versus opponents with a losing record. The Royals have lost the last five times they've faced a lefty starter.  

The buy sign is on here for southpaw Drew Smyly, a big strikeout pitcher who had an encouraging outing in his last start. 
The Yankees are in rebuilt mode after dealing closer Aroldis Chapman. They are 14-17 on the season versus southpaw starters and have had trouble with Smyly in the past. Smyly is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA career-wise versus the Yankees.
Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi actually leads the Yankees in wins, but is their most inconsistent starter. The Yankees are 0-4 in his last four road starts. 

I understand it's tough to get behind the Giants right now. They are 2-10 since the All-Star break. 
But the Giants have a strong history against Max Scherzer and the Nationals have trouble closing out games with Jonathan Papelbon's recent problems. 
San Francisco has won 19 of its last 28 home games. The Giants infield has been fortified with Joe Panik coming off the DL and the team trading for All-Star Eduardo Nunez. 
Scherzer is 1-4 with a 6.85 career ERA in five career starts against the Giants. The Nationals have won just once in their last six visits to AT&T Park. 
Giants starter Jeff Samardzija has become more of an innings-eater type starter than an effective one. He's hurt by giving up too many homers.
Samardzija, however, is must effective when pitching at spacious AT&T Park. His home ERA is 3.83 this season compared to 4.43 on the road. He also has a 3.73 night ERA compared to a 5.56 ERA when pitching during the day. The Giants have won five of the last seven times Samardzija has pitched at home.

The White Sox are in must-win mode against this bottom-feeder. Twins players have to be distracted by the upcoming trade deadline especially after infielder Eduardo Nunez, their lone All-Star, was dealt to San Francisco following Thursday's win against Baltimore. 
Chicago has dominated Minnesota winning eight of nine games this season. The White Sox have Jose Quintana going. He's having his finest season with a 2.97 ERA. 
Twins starter Ricky Nolasco is having another Ricky Nolasco type season with a 4-8 record and 5.40 ERA. He couldn't get to the third inning against Boston in his last start. The Twins are 0-7 the last seven times they've played an AL Central Division foe. 

Baltimore is 58-42. Minnesota is 37-63, the worst record in the American League. That's a sampling of 100 games. The verdict is in and the Orioles are much superior to the Twins.
So why did the Twins open a favorite here? Home field isn't that strong of a factor. 
The big reason is Baltimore is throwing Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 5-9 with a 7.38 ERA. Jimenez, though, loves to pitch at Target Field where he's 4-1 lifetime with a 1.82 ERA.
Jimenez's wife just gave birth to his first daughter. He's relaxed now and should be strong having not pitched in nearly three weeks. I'm expecting a big game from Jimenez and the Orioles, who have a vastly superior offense to the Twins. 
Twins starter Kyle Gibson is coming off his best game, but has always lacked consistency. 

The Orioles have scored only 10 runs in their last six road games. This was supposed to be their first off day since All-Star break. Instead, though, they have to play in this postponed game before heading off to Toronto for a first-place AL East Division showdown series against the Blue Jays. So it wouldn't be surprising if some of the key Baltimore hitters are rested in this matchup.
Twins starter Kyle Gibson is off the best pitched game of his career. He held the Red Sox, the No. 1 scoring team in baseball, to one run on two hits in eight innings this past Friday. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his past five starts. 
The under has cashed in Baltimore's last seven road games and 13 of the last 16 times the Orioles have faced a righty starter. 
The Twins have a below average offense. They've been held to two runs or fewer in half of their last 12 games.
Look for Ubaldo Jimenez to come through for Baltimore. He's been terrible up to this point - 5-9 record with a 7.38 ERA - but he will be well rested both physically and mentally. Jimenez last pitched 20 days ago. He got off the paternity list after the recent birth of his first daughter. He also made a mechanical adjustment during his time off that should prove helpful. This is an extremely important start for his career. 
Jimenez pitches with a lot of confidence against Minnesota. He has been especially strong at Target Field with a 4-1 lifetime mark and 1.82 ERA. 
Both pitcher's should be helped a 10 mph wind that will be blowing in.  

Boston has the best offense in baseball. The Tigers carry a high bullpen fatigue rating. The two teams just played a 9-8 game last night. So naturally the oddsmaker is going to assign a high total to today's matchup.
But given the starting pitching matchup and circumstances, I don't see the final score adding up to double-digits. 
Detroit starter Michael Fulmer had a hiccup in his last start allowing four runs in five innings against the White Sox. That's the highest number of runs Fulmer has given up in a game all season. Fulmer has been brilliant. That brilliance has shown on the road where he's 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA. Until his last outing, Fulmer hadn't surrendered more than two runs in 10 consecutive starts. The Red Sox have yet to face him giving Fulmer the advantage of surprise.
The Red Sox have a young pitcher going, too, Eduardo Rodriguez. He showed a lot of promise last season, but was hurt this season and needed to work out mechanical issues in the minors. This will be his third start since getting called up earlier this month. Rodriguez has yielded three runs in 12 1/3 innings during his last two starts. He struck out eight in 5 1/3 innings against the Twins during his last start. 
Rodriguez beat the Tigers in his lone start against them. That was a year ago when he held them to one run. Veteran Brad Ziegler has shored up the Red Sox bullpen. 
The weather forecast is for a slight wind, which will be blowing in. CB Bucknor is slated to be the home plate umpire. Bucknor has had more unders than overs in four of the last five seasons, including this year. 

After making a key mechanical adjustment, the buy sign is on for Chris Archer. He pitched at Coors Field this past Wednesday and held the Rockies to two runs on four hits in six innings. Up to that point, Archer had been very disappointing. Yet he still leads the American League in strikeouts with 147 in 123 1/3 innings. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Archer a first-look edge. 
Tampa Bay is 6-1 in Archer's last seven interleague starts. 
The Dodgers are going with Bud Norris, who is 5-9 with a 4.56 ERA. He's been a high strikeout guy, too, like Archer, but doesn't come close to matching Archer's previous All-Star form. Norris has always lacked consistency becoming a journeyman. His schedule has been altered, too, since he last pitched in relief last Friday giving up a game-winning home run in a 16-inning loss to the Cardinals. 
Norris has pitched against the Rays seven times, including six starts, and is 1-2 with a 4.62 ERA. I prefer a back-in-form Archer to Norris and a Dodger bullpen that ranks among the top five in most innings pitched. 
Trade rumors and a rare chance to play in Dodger Stadium should ensure a full effort from the Rays. 

The Yankees not only lose their closer Aroldis Chapman, but also are mentally distracted following that trade today in which the star reliever was dealt to the Cubs.

The Yankees have to deal with Dallas Keuchel on top of this. He's made four starts against the Yankees the past two years and giving up two runs in 29 innings. Current Yankees are batting less than .190 against him. 

The Astros have won four in a row averaging 10 runs during their last two games. Current Astros are hitting .303 against Yankees starter Michael Pineda, who has a 5.70 road ERA this season. 

Take away Jose Fernandez and the Marlins' pitching staff is very vulnerable. That's especially so when an injury hits like it has to Wei-Yin Chen. He's out with an elbow injury. The reason the Marlins' back-end of their rotation is so bad is because they have no adequate replacements.
So who gets the call to pitch today? Jarred Cosart. He was brutal with a 7.98 ERA in three April starts spanning less than 15 innings. The Marlins sent him down to the minors in April. Now he's resurfaced not because he's pitching well, but because Miami is desperate. Cosart was 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for Triple-A New Orleans. 
The Phillies have going their most consistent pitcher this season, Jeremy Hellickson. The Phillies are 4-1 in Hellickson's last five starts. Hellickson is 2-0 in three starts versus the Marlins this season giving up just six runs in those three outings. Hellickson has pitched so well in Philadelphia that his name is being linked to a number of trade rumors. So he should have extra motivation for this start with the chance to possibility be traded to a contending team. 
Philadelphia plays Miami tough having split the 10 head-to-head games this season. The Phillies also have back their best power hitter, third baseman Maikel Franco. 

This is a key matchup for the defending world champions. The Royals have been dominant at home going 31-15. They have only lost four times in 22 games when favored at Kauffman Stadium. 
The Rangers are a .500 road club. This marks their ninth straight away game and end of their current road trip. So focus could be a problem.  
The starting pitching matchup of A.J. Griffin versus Edinson Volquez favors the Royals. Kansas City also has much the superior bullpen. 
Griffin has yet to prove he has fully recovered from shoulder stiffness that sidelined him for 43 games earlier this season. He has made five starts since coming off the DL and is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA. He hasn't reached the sixth inning in any of those outings putting the Rangers' vulnerable middle relief into action. Griffin also has yielded at least one home run in each of his past five starts. 
Volquez is in solid form allowing nine runs during his last four starts spanning 25 2/3 innings. He has pitched much better at home with a 6-3 record and 4.09 ERA compared to 2-5 with a 5.72 ERA on the road. Volquez's home ERA would be a full run lower, but is skewed by one horrible performance in which he allowed 11 earned runs in one inning against the Astros last month. 

The Yankees aren't likely to have overworked star relievers Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances for this game. That puts a lot of pressure on Nathan Eovaldi, who hasn't been up to the task. Eovaldi pitched well in his last start, but prior to that he had a 9.20 ERA in his previous six starts. He carries a 13.30 lifetime ERA in five careers starts versus the Giants. 

The Giants also have bullpen fatigue issues and their starter, Jeff Samardzija, is a bad fit for Yankee Stadium. He's given up 12 homers in his last eight starts and has a 6.02 ERA in his last eight starts. He has a 5.28 ERA in 21 interleague appearances. 

This is way too big of a price for the Rockies to lay pitching lefty Tyler Anderson and having a shaky and fatigued bullpen. The Rockies believe Anderson has promise. The Braves believe the same thing about Matt Wisler, who gets the start here. Wisler more than held his own when he pitched at Coors Field last year giving up two runs in six innings.
It really comes down to value. The Rockies just aren't a strong enough team to lay this price considering the pitching matchup. Colorado has lost 13 of the past 19 times when playing an opponent with a below .400 winning percentage. 

I want to fade Edwin Jackson in the worst way while getting behind Max Scherzer. Of course the whole world wants to do this, too. So this is a way to get the matchup - laying 1 1/2 runs - without having to risk 3/1 odds. 
The Nationals have lost back-to-back home games with Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark. I don't see them dropping a third consecutive game with their third of three aces. 
Jackson is in my top five National League worst starter list even though he nearly threw a no-hitter during his last start. The Marlins cut Jackson this season after he had nearly a 6.00 ERA in eight games with them. The Padres are his 11th team. He has a 4.58 lifetime ERA and 1.45 WHIP. 
Scherzer is one of the five best starters in the National League and he's in typical great form with a 5-2 mark and 1.61 ERA in his last nine starts. He's struck out 81 during this time frame spanning 61 1/3 innings. 
The Nationals have won by more than one run in 11 of their last 13 victories. 

The price is right to back the underdog Mariners. So is the pitching matchup. 
Veteran Hisashi Iwakuma has made some necessary adjustments to turn his season around. He's 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA during his last four starts. He holds a 2.40 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in five appearances. 
R.A. Dickey pitches worse in day games. This isn't a fluke since he's a knuckleballer. He also pitches worse at home where he's 2-6 with a 4.43 ERA. Dickey's daytime ERA is 4.479. He has a 4.22 career ERA versus the Mariners in 13 appearances, including five starts.
Despite playing at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, the Mariners have hit the second-most homers in the majors. Dickey has surrendered the third-most homers in the majors with 23. 
Seattle has been dominant against AL East teams going 14-6 with five straight victories versus them. The Mariners catch the Blue Jays short-handed, too.  
Star slugger Jose Bautista is on the DL and catcher Russell Martin is dealing with a knee injury and isn't expected to be available today. Backup catcher Josh Thole usually catches Dickey anyways, but Martin being out limits the Blue Jays' options. 

Detroit is 11-1 the past 12 times Michael Fulmer has taken the mound. This record isn't built on luck. Fulmer has been brilliant going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA on the season, including posting a 7-1 mark in his last 10 outings with a 0.83 ERA. 

Fulmer is strong on the road, too, where he's 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA. He has the element of surprise on his side as the White Sox have never faced him. The White Sox have trouble with power pitchers, which Fulmer is. 
Chicago is 1-7 in its last eight games, scoring one run or fewer in five of those losses. The White Sox haven't been playing well during the last six weeks going 23-39 during their past 62 games. 
Not only do the White Sox have to deal with Fulmer, but they are forced to give Jacob Turner another start with Carlos Rondon on the DL. Turner has become a hopeless cause. He's been pitching in the minors where he was 4-7 with a 4.71 ERA in 18 Triple A starts. He got called up to pitch against the Angels last Sunday and was hammered giving up eight runs on seven hits in four innings. 

The Marlins have been a nice success story so far this season. But their biggest weakness - the backend of their rotation - is likely to get exposed in this matchup. 
Tom Koehler is slated to take the mound for Miami. He entered this season having compiled a 4.58 road ERA from 2013-2015 compared to 3.51 at Marlins Park. This home/road split hasn't changed this season. Koehler is 2-3 with a 4.22 ERA when pitching at home this season and 4-5 with a 5.02 ERA on the road. So it's safe to deduct that Koehler - a No. 5 type starter to begin with - is much worse when pitching on the road. 
The Marlins were riding a four-game winning streak when Koehler last pitched, which was this past Saturday at St. Louis. He couldn't reach the fifth inning surrendering four runs on seven hits and three walks in a 5-0 loss. Only once during his past five starts has Koehler gone as much as five innings. During this four-game stretch, Koehler has giving up 29 hits in 16 hits carrying a fat 7.88 ERA. 
Miami isn't nearly a strong enough team to overcome such a bad road starter. The Marlins have been outscored by 14 runs in losing Koehler's past three away outings. 
Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff is in much better form than Koehler. If you discount a bad performance at Coors Field, Eickhoff's ERA would be 2.34 in his last nine starts. Eickhoff also carries a big home/road contrast with a 2.45 ERA at Citizens Band Park compared to 5.51 on the road this year. 

Promising Julio Urias can only hope to be as dominant as Stephen Strasburg is right now. Strasburg is more than living up to his huge ceiling as he tries to become the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to open a season 14-0. 
Strasburg has held his past four opponents to fewer than two earned runs compiling a 0.94 ERA. Strasburg has a 1.71 career ERA versus the Dodgers in four starts.   
The 19-year-old Urias has great potential, but he's going through growing pains and he doesn't have the element of surprise on his side nor pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium in this road matchup. The Nationals saw Urias less than a month ago in LA. They'll be ready for him.  

Chris Archer is on his way to a 20-lose season and has shown no signs of reverting back to last season's All-Star form. His ERA hasn't been under 4.00 since his second start and he's given up 20 homers after surrendering 19 last year. Archer is 0-6 in his last seven starts.
Archer has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts. His biggest trouble has come on the road where he's 3-6 with a 6.75 ERA. Now he's pitching in the best hitter's park in the majors against a foe that ranks third in runs and batting average. The Rays are a bad grass team losing 22 of the past 30 times they've played on a natural surface.
Tampa Bay ranks 26th in runs and 27th in batting average. The Rays have scored less than five runs in 11 of their last 15 games. They have a losing record versus lefties and are going against southpaw Jorge De La Rosa. 
De La Rosa has turned his season around so his season ERA should be discounted. De La Rosa has turned in six straight quality starts. He has a history of pitching well at Coors Field, where he's allowed just one run in his last 15 innings there. He is 3-0 this season with 1.93 ERA in day games. 

It's easy to rip the Twins. Sure they've been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball. But they have won six of their last 10 and if given 1 1/2 runs would be 15-4 in their last 19 games.
What makes the Twins attractive here is a chance to go against Anibal Sanchez, who is 5-10 with a 6.75 ERA. Whatever talent Sanchez once possessed is gone. He's only in the Tigers' rotation out of desperation because Jordan Zimmerman and Daniel Norris are each injured. Sanchez has surrendered 12 earned runs during his two July starts spanning 8 1/3 innings. 
Tommy Milone, Sanchez's mound opponent, is in much better form winning his past two starts allowing three earned runs in 11 innings. Milone is 3-1 lifetime versus the Tigers in seven outings with a 3.86 ERA. 

I don't see the Giants getting it done with Jake Peavy pitching in band box Fenway Park. San Francisco hasn't played at Fenway since 2007. Peavy knows Fenway, though, from his days in the American League. He has a 4.47 ERA in 14 starts at Fenway. 

Peavy needs a spacious park to pitch well in. He's been fortunate to have played for the Padres and now the Giants. He's not the same pitcher, though, on the road particularly at hitter's parks such as Fenway. Peavy is 1-5 with a 6.64 ERA in eight road starts this season. The Giants have lost 14 of Peavy's past 20 road outings. 
San Francisco is 5-22 in its last 27 away contests versus a foe with a winning record. 
Peavy has to face the major's top run producing team as Boston averages a league-best 5.5 runs per game. 
The Giants' offense is going to have trouble matching that down three starters - Hunter Pence, Joe Panik and Matt Duffy. 
Boston has won its last four home games and is 7-2 this month at Fenway. The Red Sox are 10-1 in Rick Porcello's last 11 starts. Porcello hasn't lost in more than two months. He is 8-0 this season when pitching at Fenway.  

This is a huge series for the Royals if they want to make a run in the AL Central. Kansas City has yet to lose to the Indians at home in three meetings this season. 
Indians starter Corey Kluber carries a big reputation, but it's a mistake to make the Royals a home 'dog here. KC has won nearly 70 percent of its games at Kauffman Stadium this season. The Royals have defeated Kluber the past five times they've faced him at home. This includes a 9-4 win on June 15. Kluber gave up eight runs (five earned) in five innings in that loss. 
Kluber tailed off last year from his outstanding 2014 season and he's been worse this season with a 3.61 ERA. Kluber also hasn't pitched in nine days for the Indians. His career ERA is 4.16 when throwing on six or more days of rest. 
Kluber also will have a new catcher for the first time this season as Yan Gomes injured his shoulder on Sunday. The Indians activated catcher Roberto Perez, who has caught just nine innings during a minor league rehab assignment after undergoing thumb surgery in May. Kluber entered this year with a 3.88 ERA when Perez has been his catcher. 
Royals starter Edinson Volquez has been better at home where he's 6-3 with a 4.25 ERA. That ERA would be much lower if it weren't for one bad outing against the Astros last month when he was lit up for 11 earned runs in one inning. Volquez has a 1.54 ERA the two times this season when he's pitched with six or more days of rest. 
Volquez is backed by one of the strongest bullpens in baseball. 

This is a huge game for the Yankees with a decision looming if they want to keep playing for this season, or trade off their outstanding relief pitchers. I certainly respect Boston's top-ranked offense. But the Yankees have their ace, Masahiro Tanaka, going plus they won't hesitate to employ their Big Three star relief pitchers - Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. 
Tanaka is pitching on six day's rest. That's important because he's 5-0 with a 1.72 ERA when pitching on more than his normal four days rest. The under has cashed the past six times Tanaka has faced AL East teams. 
The Red Sox have strengthened their bullpen trading for Brad Ziegler. They have their ace, David Price, on the mound, too. Price is pitching well with a 2.82 ERA in his last three starts with 30 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings during this span. The under has cashed in eight of Price's last nine starts. The left-handed Price can neutralize the Yankees' left-handed bats taking away their short right field fence while forcing Joe Girardi to stack his lineup with right-handed batters. 
Wind isn't a factor and second-year umpire Carlos Torres, scheduled to be behind the plate, has proven neutral on an over/under bias. 

There's nothing wrong with St. Louis' offense  - fourth in the majors in runs and sixth in homers - and now the Cardinals have a strong pitching matchup edge with a rejuvenated Adam Wainwright drawing Tom Koehler.

The buy sign is on with Wainwright as he's returned to ace status holding the Brewers and Pirates to a combined one run in his last two starts spanning 14 innings. Wainwright tied his season high in strikeouts against the Pirates with nine. 

Wainwright has a good post-All-Star history (50-28 with a 3.05 ERA) and is 4-2 with a 2.33 lifetime ERA versus the Marlins in eight starts.  

Koehler historically is worse on the road and that's held up this season with a 4.72 away ERA compared to 4.22 ERA at Marlins Park. Koehler has a career WHIP at 1.56 and a 7.56 lifetime ERA versus St. Louis in three starts. Koehler is vulnerable to the Cardinals' power bats, too. He didn't allow a homer in his last start, but surrendered four during his previous three outings. 

The Marlins are 0-7 the past seven times Koehler has started versus an above .500 opponent. 

All of this helps make this my Game of the Week. 

Question: Who is the Royals' best starter? I'd go with Danny Duffy. He's made 11 starts since becoming a part of the Royals' starting rotation and gone 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA. Kansas City is 8-3 in Duffy's starts this season. The key for Duffy is better control. He has a 23-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts.
Duffy has built up his stamina, too, going into the seventh inning during his last three starts. Kansas City has the stronger bullpen and could get back closer Wade Davis from the DL today.  
Mike Pelfrey has a 5.35 career ERA in seven starts versus the Royals. Pelfrey actually is pitching better of late. But at 32 he is who he is - a fringe starter who is lucky to have a rotation start. Pelfrey has a 4.58 ERA on the season and a fastball that couldn't break glass. Pelfrey doesn't go deep into games either. He's yet to pitch past the seven inning this season.
Note, too, that the Tigers will be without Justin Upton. He's on the bereavement list.  

This would be a much better matchup for the Mets if Steven Matz were healthy, Yoenis Cespedes was able to play and there wasn't such gloom around the team with the recent news about Matt Harvey being out for the season and Noah Syndergaard possibly dealing with a serious injury.
Matz is dealing with elbow discomfort. It's obviously affected his effectiveness. New York is 0-7 during Matz's last seven starts. His ERA during this span is 4.58. Matz will have to deal with hot-hitting Daniel Murphy, who is batting .438 with nine extra base hits and 19 RBI's in 12 games against the Mets this season. 
Gio Gonzalez also has been going through tough times, but he had a quality outing in his last start and has a strong history of pitching well at Citi Field with a 7-1 record and 1.53 ERA in 12 career starts there. The Nationals are 9-2 during Gonzalez's last 11 road starts versus the Mets. 
The Nationals are back on track winning 10 of their last 14 and have a healthy bullpen now. 

Take the Padres out of Petco Park and they become a dangerous offensive team. San Diego is averaging 7.8 runs in its last six road games. 
The Padres also are 11-7 during their past 18 overall games. The Dodgers are 6-11 in their last 17 games if giving up 1 1/2 runs.
I like the way San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is developing. He has one of the league's highest ground ball rates during the last month and is coming off a six-inning start against the Diamondbacks allowing just two earned runs with five strikeouts and no walks. That was at Chase Field, too, which is far more challenging to pitchers than Dodgers Stadium. 
Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is on the comeback trail following Tommy John surgery. This only will be his second start of the season. McCarthy has a lifetime 4.82 ERA with the Dodgers. LA is without injured outfielder Joc Pederson and its bullpen carries a heavy fatigue rating after Scott Kazmir went just three innings last night. 

Starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Jimmy Nelson are pitching better and both team's offenses are down because of missing players.
The Cardinals are minus injured Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss, both of whom are left-handed and would have likely started against the right-handed Nelson.  
Nelson was outstanding during April and May. Then he had a down period, but has come back giving up just four runs in his last three starts. He's backed by one of the most underrated bullpens in the majors. 

Wacha has allowed more than two earned runs only once in his last five starts and that was three runs against the Royals. The Brewers no longer have Aaron Hill, who they traded to the Red Sox on Thursday. Hill's departure weakens Milwaukee's offense at third base. 

The Braves ended a four-game losing streak by upsetting the Cubs in a rain-delayed, 11-inning makeup game Thursday. Now the Braves draw the rested White Sox, who were idle Thursday, and lefty Chris Sale. 
Atlanta has the worst offense and worst record in the majors. The Braves are 9-22 versus southpaws. This is a kill spot for the White Sox so I'm going to lay a 1 1/2 runs at considerably reduced juice. Matt Wisler has shown some promise, but he's far from Sale's class and is backed by a bad bullpen that also carries a high fatigue rating. 
Chicago is 15-3 in Sale's past 18 starts. The White Sox are 8-1 in Sale's past nine home starts and 8-0 in his last eight interleague starts. 
The White Sox are playing well winning seven of 10, including their past five. 

I understand the Rays are 3-19 in their last 22 games. But I don't care if they were 0-22. The oddsmaker opened Boston - with Sean O'Sullivan on the mound - a favorite against Chris Archer. That's enough for me to take Tampa Bay. 
Archer is displaying signs of finally coming around working 5 2/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday. The Rays have their closer, Alex Colome, back, too. Colome has been outstanding with a 1.71 ERA and 19 saves.
The Rays have beaten Boston seven of the past nine times and are 5-1 in their last six games at Fenway Park. 
But fading O'Sullivan is my main handicapping factor. The journeyman, with a career-mark of 13-23 and 5.99 ERA, shouldn't be in a big league rotation. But the Red Sox are desperate to shore up their back end so O'Sullivan is getting another chance. 

I'm always attracted getting a plus price with the superior starting pitcher. That's the case here with Drew Pomeranz facing lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. 
Pomeranz is enjoying his breakthrough season with excellent command now of his highly effective curveball. He has a 2.65 ERA and has held foes to one earned run or fewer in half of his 16 starts. 
Ryu is making his first start since 2014. He's been on a long comeback trail after suffering a torn labrum, which cost him all of last season. He was 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA in eight minor league starts. Ryu is going to be on a pitch count and the Dodgers' middle relief carries a high fatigue rating. 
The Padres are 14-10 versus southpaws and playing well winning 10 of their last 16. They hit much better away from Petco Park, too. San Diego is averaging 6.7 runs during its last nine away games. 

I don't see the Cardinals getting swept at home especially with Pittsburgh throwing Jeff Locke, who has a 7.16 road ERA in nine away starts. Locke also has a 4.04 lifetime ERA against the Cardinals in nine starts. Pittsburgh is 2-8 the past 10 times Locke has pitched on the road versus an above .500 foe. 

Pittsburgh's bullpen has been pitching well, but carries a high fatigue rating having logged 20 1/3 innings during the last five days. 
Cardinals starter Jamie Garcia has a 0.57 ERA in six career games against the Pirates. The Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 division games. 

I'm going to ride the hot Astros, winners of 28 of their last 39 games. Houston starter Mike Fiers is pitching his best ball going 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last four starts. The righty is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA during his past three home starts. 
The Mariners have lost 14 of their last 17 road games, including a seven-game road losing streak when facing a right-hander. 
Seattle starter Wade LeBlanc has been far better than expected during his first two starts for Seattle posting a 1.50 ERA. But LeBlanc is a journeyman with a career ERA above 4.50. He's been helped pitching both of those games at pitcher-friendly Safeco Park. Now he faces the Astros, who rank in the top 10 in homers, at a hitter's park. 

So far Sonny Gray has yet to demonstrate his stud form of previous seasons, but he's not as bad as his overall numbers show. He's rounding back into shape after being out with a strained trapezius, which affected his early season performance. Gray posted a respectable 3.23 ERA in June and hasn't walked more than one batter in any of his six starts since returning from his injury. He's facing a below-average Twins offense that ranks 19th in runs scored. 
Ervin Santana doesn't get a lot of respect in the marketplace, but he's been pitching well yielding just five earned runs in his last three starts. Santana owns a strong history, too, versus the A's with a 15-7 lifetime mark and 2.10 ERA. 
The A's rank 24th in runs scored. They have not scored more than four runs during any of their last five games. 
There are other factors that point to an under, too, besides the pitching. 
There is a fatigue factor for the batters because last night's game didn't start until 9:50 p.m. local time due to nearly a three-hour weather delay. The game then lasted more than three hours. Now we have an early start today as this is a get away day for both teams. That may also mean key hitters could be rested. 
The weather forecast is for a slight wind that will be blowing in. Fielding Culbreth is slated to be behind home plate. He's a huge under umpire. He's had more unders than overs every year since 2011. The under is 79-53 (60 percent) during the past five years when Culbreth has been the home plate ump. 

Masahiro Tanaka has been super on the road this season with a 1.32 ERA in seven starts and is 16-7 with a 2.84 ERA during his career when pitching on five day's rest, which is the case here. Tanaka is backed by perhaps the best relief trio in baseball - Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. 
I'm a fan of White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon. He has better stuff than his record and ERA show. The under has cashed six of the last eight times Rodon has pitched at home. 
The Yankees are top-heavy from the left side, which hurts them against southpaws. They rank 27th in OPS versus lefties. The Yankees also have hit 19 fewer homers on the road and their road OPS is .658 compared to .746 at home. 

Rangers starter AJ Griffin is making just his third start since coming off the DL. He's been averaging less than five innings since returning to the starting rotation and does not figure to last long against Boston, the highest-scoring team in the majors. The Rangers' bullpen has a heavy fatigue rating throwing 25 innings during the past six games with a 9.72 ERA. 
Bostons starter David Price has a lifetime ERA of 5.78 versus the Rangers, who have scored five or more runs in nine of their last 12 games. 
Joe West is slated to be behind home plate. The over has covered 66 percent of the time West has been behind the plate during the past three years going 53-27. 

The Mets have a rested bullpen, something the Marlins don't have, and draw Miami traveling to play in a day game after playing in the late Sunday game at night. 
Marlins starter Tom Koehler is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter who pitches worse on the road. He has a 5.40 career ERA in eight outings at Citi Field, too. The Marlins are 0-6 the past six times Koehler has pitched against an above .500 team.
The Marlins could be without injured first baseman Justin Bour, who is tied for second on the team in homers with 15.  
Matt Harvey is primed for a big start after his last start was reduced to just 3 2/3 innings because of a rain delay. The Mets have been especially strong on Monday winning 22 of the past 26 times. 

The Giants have a cluster injury problem in their outfield with Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco all ailing. San Francisco also is minus starting third baseman Matt Duffy and second baseman Joe Panik. The Giants carry a high bullpen fatigue rating and over-the-hill Jake Peavy is the starting pitcher. 
The 35-year-old Peavy has a 4.94 day time ERA and 5.33 ERA on the season. He's coming off a poorly pitched game against the A's where he couldn't get out of the fourth inning. 
Rockies starter Tyler Anderson has a misleading 0-2 record. He's four-for-four in quality starts and has a 2.66 ERA. 

James Shields is enduring a terrible season. But he did pitch well in his last start holding the Twins to one run in 6 2/3 innings with five strikeouts and one walk at home this past Wednesday. 
CC Sabathia has cooled off with a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts. He's given up 21 hits and six walks during this span pitching 17 1/3 innings.
The White Sox have the better record and are home. The Yankees are traveling from San Diego and are not helped by this being a day game. New York is 2-10 the past 12 times they've been on the road playing a foe with a winning record.  

I'm willing to lay a short road road price on promising Chad Green against Andrew Cashner, a proven underachiever who has been battling injuries much of the season.
Green's 1.54 ERA leads the International League. I'm expecting a better performance from Green now that he's had a taste of the big leagues. 
The Yankees have the stronger offense and far better relief pitching. 
The Padres have been terrible in day games going 6-20. That includes eight losses in 10 games at Petco Park. 

I'm not buying into a total of less than eight in a pitching matchup of Chad Bettis against Scott Kazmir. 
There is good reason why Bettis has a 5.84 ERA while Kazmir's ERA sits at 4.67. They are below average starters. Bettis has a 4.58 lifetime ERA against the Dodgers. Kazmir has a 5.73 ERA versus the Rockies. 
Jim Wolf is slated to be the home plate ump. The over is 15-7-3 the last 25 times he's been behind the plate. 

Adam Wainwright isn't the same pitcher he once was and Jimmy Nelson struggles on the road and is coming off a horrible June where he was 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. Nelson has a 5.66 road ERA and a 9.51 career ERA versus St. Louis in six appearances. 
Wainwright has a 7.15 day ERA and the Cardinals' bullpen is vulnerable at the closer spot. The over has cashed seven of the last eight times Wainwright has faced the Brewers. 
Sean Barber is one of the better over umps and there is a strong chance of rain, which could mean extra innings for the bullpens. 

I believe this could be the top value play of the season so far getting the Orioles as an opening underdog against Seattle journeyman southpaw Wade LeBlanc. 
Baltimore just set a major league record for homers in a month with 56 in June. The Orioles rank fifth in runs scored and are first in home runs. They are 13-8 on the season versus lefty starters, including 5-1 during the past six instances. 
It's an understatement to say the Orioles are swinging hot bats. They have scored 85 runs in last 11 games, an average of 7.7 runs per game. Now they draw LeBlanc, who is making his second big league start in three years. The Mariners were desperate for a starter with Felix Hernandez on the DL and Nate Karns struggling. So Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto acquired LeBlanc from the Blue Jays. 
This is what Dipoto said before LeBlanc's first start for Seattle this past Friday: "He's 31 years old, he's been out there before. He knows the routine. He might not pitch well, but he won't go out there and panic."
This isn't exactly a ringing endorsement Nor should it be given than LeBlanc is 21-33 lifetime with a 4.46 ERA. This is LeBlanc's fifth big league team. LeBlanc pitched in Japan last season where he had a 4.23 ERA. 
LeBlanc earned this start by throwing six shutout innings against the Cardinals last Friday. Credit to LeBlanc for that surprising performance. But he is who he is and that's a fringe big-leaguer, a desperation, fill-in starter with a proven ERA of near 4.50. The Orioles should eat him up. The Mariners have a below average bullpen with a shaky closer carrying a high fatigue rating. 
Baltimore is playing well, too, having won seven of its last eight. Seattle is 4-8 in its last 12. 
There are reasons why the oddsmaker opened Seattle a favorite, though, chief among them is the Mariners being home and the Orioles going with Kevin Gausman, who has been more about potential than production. 
But I see a buy sign hereon Gausman coming off a 5-0 victory against the Rays this past Saturday at home where he allowed just four hits - all singles - with seven strikeouts and no walks in 7 2/3 innings. Gausman has a 3.93 ERA and is due for some good luck. His last four road starts have come at tough hitter's parks against tough offenses - the Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros. 
The last time Gausman pitched at a more friendly pitcher's park was five road starts ago when he allowed just one run in 6 2/3 innings with six strikeouts and a walk against the Angels. Now he gets to pitch here at Safeco Field, one of the better pitcher's parks in the majors. Gausman is 25 and talented. The same can't be said for LeBlanc. 

The line has come down enough to where there is value backing Madison Bumgarner. He's among the best pitchers in baseball. Dillon Overton should be a much higher priced 'dog. The Giants are 17-5 the past 22 times Bumgarner has faced a sub .500 foe on the road. 

Early activity in the marketplace is overlooking that Overton won his big league debut despite giving up three homers to the Angels. The Giants have won 21 of their last 29 road games. 

I'm going to continue to ride the Indians and a back-in-top-form Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland has outscored its opponents by 51 runs in winning its last 12 games. Carrasco has regained his elite status with three straight quality performances, posting a 1.61 ERA during this span. 
The Indians are 11-4 in Carrasco's past 15 road starts. Carrasco has a 1.95 road ERA this season. He won't have to deal with injured Jose Bautista. 
Toronto is playing its first home game following a six-game road trip. The Blue Jays just finished a wild series against the Rockies at Coors Field.  
Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey has struggled at home with a 5.36 ERA this season. Toronto is 0-8 during his last eight starts at home. 

I can see the Yankees owning a pitching edge in every inning. A.J. Griffin is making just his second start since coming off the DL. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game for precautionary reasons and the Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Closer Sam Dyson also carries a fatigue rating. 

Yankees starter Michael Pineda has metrics that show better than his won/lost and ERA do. He's due for a strong game - and he's backed by the Yankees' trio of elite relief pitchers. 

The underdog Brewers should have beaten the Dodgers last night and are in a better spot to pull the upset today facing rookie Brock Stewart in his big league debut. 
The Dodgers have been going through lots of starting pitchers because of an abundance of injuries. Stewart will be their ninth different starter. He opened the season in Single A ball. 
Brewers starter Junior Guerra is a much safewr bet. He's not fancy, but he does the job. Milwaukee is 8-2 in his 10 starts. The Brewers have their three best relief pitchers fresh, while Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen has worked the past two days. 
The Dodgers could be missing banged-up center fielder Joc Pederson. 

The Phillies are playing much better. They've won four of their last six, including the first two games of this series. They would be 7-0 if given 1 1/2 runs during their last seven games.
The Diamondbacks have lost four in a row. They have been terrible at Chase Field dropping 27 of 40. This includes losing eight of the past nine times against a foe with a losing road mark. 
Phillies starter Zach Eflin is pitching better giving up three runs in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. Diamondbacks starter Archie Bradley is 1-2 at home with a 5.79 ERA. The Phillies just faced him on June 19. The Diamondbacks' bullpen is in disarray, weak in middle relief and closer Brad Ziegler has blown two of his last three save opportunities.