It has been four years since Jose Berrios was a good pitcher. He had his highest ERA of his career last season at 5.23.

Brady Singer, on the other hand, is an ascending pitcher. He was 10-5 with a 3.23 ERA last season. He is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA lifetime against the Blue Jays in 11 innings.

The Royals have yet to win this season. A big reason for this is MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino opening a combined 1-for-29. Those are three promising players. They are all way overdue now to start producing.

So, given the starting pitching matchup and home field, I'll take the Royals at an underdog price.

Minus Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies are off to a slow start.

The Rangers should be improved this season. They are off to a fast start pounding the Phillies, 11-7 and 16-3, during the first two games of the series. The Rangers did this against Philadelphia's top two pitchers, Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler.

Now the Rangers get to drop down in class to face Bailey Falter, while having Martin Perez go for them.

Perez was an underrated 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA last season. He was Texas' top pitcher last season. Perez is backed by an upgraded Texas bullpen, too.

The Under has cashed 10 of the last 11 times the Diamondbacks and Dodgers have played each other.

I see that trend continuing in a pitching matchup of star starters Zac Gallen versus Julio Urias.

But a big factor why I like fewer than eight runs to be scored is weather. Southern California has been dealing with lots of rain, cold and wind. The temperature is going to be much colder than normal for a Dodger home game. That's going to reduce power in what already is a pitcher's park.

After nine mostly excellent seasons in Cleveland, Corey Kluber has entered journeyman land. The Red Sox are his fifth team in five years. I still like Kluber way more than Kyle Gibson, who draws the opening-day start for Baltimore versus Kluber.

Gibson had a 5.05 ERA with the Phillies last season and gave up 24 homers. That makes four years out of the past seven, Gibson's ERA has been above 5.00.

Kluber was 10-10 with a 4.34 ERA for Tampa Bay last year. He's 4-1 with a 3.53 ERA in seven lifetime starts at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox are coming off a down season while the Orioles showed great improvement in 2022. Boston is just two years removed, though, from taking the Astros to six games in the American League Championship Series. The Red Sox finished five games above .500 at home last season.

Boston won't be reaching the ALCS again this season, but the Red Sox shouldn't be as bad as they were last year. New outfielder Masataka Yoshida looked good in the WBC and the bullpen was upgraded with the addition of several reliable relievers, headed by closer Kenley Jansen.

Justin Verlander is a great pitcher, a likely Hall of Famer. Except when it comes to the World Series. Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA in eight World Series starts. That ugly pattern stayed true in Game 1 when he gave up five runs in five innings in a 6-5 loss.

The Phillies are going with their least dependable rotation starter, Noah Syndergaard. He had a 3.94 regular season ERA and is far removed from the once feared strikeout machine. The Phillies showed their lack of confidence in Syndergaard when they decided to go with Ranger Suarez in Monday's Game 3 instead of Syndergaard when the game originally was rained out. Not only does Syndergaard allow many base runners, but he's one of the easiest pitchers in the league to steal on.

These are two well-above-average offenses playing in a hitter's park. Forget yesterday's no-hitter. This is a new game with new pitchers, both of whom have vulnerabilities.

Only three teams smacked more homers during the season than the Astros. The Phillies just clubbed five homers in a 7-0 win on Tuesday. I question Christian Javier's postseason dependability and I feel Aaron Nola is overrated when pitching at home where his ERA is 3.53.

So I'm going Over this total with two well above average offenses in a hitter's ballpark. 

Javier had a 12.00 ERA in three appearances against the Braves in last year's World Series. This is his first World Series start. 

Nola isn't in good form giving up 11 runs in his past two starts spanning nine innings. 

It usually takes a red-hot pitcher for a playoff team to advance to the World Series. The Padres have that in Joe Musgrove. And for good measure the Padres also have a sizzling closer, Josh Hader.

The pressure is on the Phillies in this Game 3 as this NLCS goes from San Diego to Philadelphia. The Padres came back from a 4-0 deficit to even the series at one apiece with an 8-5 victory this past Wednesday.

San Diego is 18-4 following an off-day. The Padres have Musgrove and a rested Hader going for them in this Game 3 matchup. Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA during the regular season. He's been absolutely dominant during the postseason with a 1-0 record and 1.38 ERA in 13 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. Hader is back to being an elite closer. He's struck out the last eight batters he's faced.

Phillies starter Ranger Suarez and Philadelphia's bullpen can't match that. Suarez has one playoff start, which came against the Braves. Phillies manager Rob Thomson pulled him in that game after 3 1/3 innings after Suarez had given up three hits and five walks.

There are no secrets here at this late stage of the season. Aaron Nola is pitching well. Nothing against him. But I want Blake Snell going for me at this short price. The Padres haven't lost two in a row during their past 13 games. If the Padres lose here, they go to Philadelphia for three games down 0-2. 

Snell has playoff experience, which Nola doesn't. Snell has pitched in 11 postseason games and has a 2.89 ERA in those contests. 

Snell is pitching his finest since he won the Cy Young Award in 2018. How good has Snell been? Try this: Last six starts - five earned runs spanning 31 2/3 innings with 43 strikeouts during this time frame. 

Yeah Yankees ace Gerrit Cole deserves to be favored in this Game 4 of the AL Division Series - but not nearly by this large of a margin. The value is with Cleveland and that's the way I'm going.

Cal Quantrill gets the start for the Guardians. And he's pitching at home. How important is that? Quantrill is 14-0 with a 2.88 ERA in 44 career games at Progressive Field. This includes 34 starts.

The Yankees are reeling. Aaron Boone could be on his way out and New York's bullpen can't be trusted. The Yankees blew a 5-3 ninth inning lead on Saturday. Aroldis Chapman isn't even on the playoff roster.

The Guardians' bullpen has been superb giving up just one earned run in 21 innings during the postseason.

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. But I don't think they should be favored in this game with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus Blake Snell.

Gonsolin had a great year with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA. However - and this is a big however - he's thrown only two innings in the majors since Aug. 23 when he went on the injured list because of a shoulder injury. Gonsolin figures to be rusty and on a pitch count putting a lot of pressure on a Dodgers bullpen that is largely untested in postseason action.

Snell is a solid pitcher. He enters this game in outstanding form with a 1.88 ERA and 17 strikeouts during his last three starts spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has allowed only four earned runs during his last five starts spanning 28 1/3 innings. Snell has a 2.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in 39 2/3 lifetime innings against the Dodgers.

The Padres gained much needed confidence against this opponent by defeating the Dodgers in LA on Wednesday to even the series at 1-1.

There's no secrets at this late stage of the baseball season. The teams and pitchers are all good.

I just see a short lay price on getting the Braves at home down 1-0 in their National League Division Series.

The last time the defending world champion Braves lost on consecutive days at home was way back on April 23-24.

The Phillies got to a weakened Max Fried on Tuesday building a 7-1 lead. Yet the Braves almost pulled it out before losing, 7-6.

The pitching matchup today is Zach Wheeler versus Kyle Wright. This pro-Braves play isn't directed against Wheeler. Both are excellent pitchers.

It's based on the resilient Braves in bounce-back mode at what I see is a shorter-than-expected lay price. Atlanta is 42-13 in its last 55 home games.
That's a winning percentage of 76 percent. The Braves have defeated the Phillies 11 of the past 15 times they've hosted them.

The Padres are 32-27 since the start of August even being reinforced with Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader. They aren't at the 111-win elite level of the Dodgers.

This is especially the case in this Game 1 matchup where the Dodgers have one of their aces going in Julio Urias, while the Padres are starting Mike Clevinger.

Clevinger is not in the class of teammates Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who shut down the Mets during their wild card series. Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA. He made three starts against the Dodgers this season spanning 13 innings. He was 0-2 with a fat 9.69 ERA.

By contrast, Urias dominated the Padres going 3-0 in four starts against them with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings. Urias had three of those starts in September going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in them. Career-wise, Urias is 6-1 versus San Diego with a 2.19 ERA in 61 2/3 innings.

So I don't see the Padres keeping this one close.

I want the home Blue Jays going for me in this opening game of their playoff series against the Mariners. 

The Mariners haven't made a postseason appearance since 2001. So they lack playoff experience. I give a slight edge to Toronto in starting pitchers with Alek Manoah against Luis Castillo and a huge edge to the Blue Jays on offense.

Manoah is on a strong roll with a 0.94 ERA and 0.85 WHIP during his last seven starts. Castillo has a 3.17 ERA with the Mariners after coming from Cincinnati. I regard Castillo as a good pitcher. But I consider Manoah a great pitcher. 

The Mariners are below average offensively averaging 4.2 runs a game, which ranked them 18th. 

The Blue Jays scored the fourth-most runs in baseball. They also finished with the highest batting average, third-best slugging percentage and OPS mark. 

I have far more confidence in Toronto's lineup than I do Seattle's. 

Just five days ago, Adrian Sampson faced the Reds. He held them to one run on three hits in seven innings. The Cubs won, 6-1. Chicago has won during each of Sampson's last three starts. His ERA is 1.42 during this span.

Sampson is flying below-the-radar. He's yielded only six earned runs during his last six starts.

The Reds managed a 3-2 victory against the Cubs on Tuesday. Cincinnati is 62-99. The Reds don't want to finish with 100 losses. But the Reds are in this position for a reason - they're terrible. The Tuesday win against the Cubs was just the Reds' third in their last 12 games.

Cincinnati hasn't broken the 3-run barrier in each of their last dozen games. The Reds are averaging two runs per game during this span.

So the Reds are likely going to need a tremendous pitching performance from starter Graham Ashcraft. I wouldn't count on that. Ashcraft is really struggling down the stretch with an 8.10 ERA in his past three starts. Ashcraft shouldn't expect much help from a Reds bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA in the majors.

It's going to be difficult for the Brewers to get excited about this game. They just got eliminated on Monday from playoff contention.

Milwaukee also is facing Zac Gallen. He's been one of the top pitchers during the second half of the season. Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Gallen's ERA during his last three starts is 2.21.

Contrast this with Brewers starter Eric Lauer. He has a 7.84 ERA during his past three starts. Gallen is an ace. Lauer, who is 10-7 with a 3.83 ERA, is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter.

The Brewers have been mediocre for quite a while now going 28-31 in their last 59 games.

I doubt the Padres have their full focus for this game after celebrating their first full-season playoff berth since 2006. The Padres clinched that spot yesterday. 

The Giants have been playing much better as they close out their season, winning 11 of their last 13 games. The Padres would be 3-8 in their last 11 games if laying 1 1/2 runs.

The pitching matchup is John Brebbia versus Joe Musgrove. Brebbia will serve as the opener. He's worked one inning in each of his last nine starts, not giving up a run during this span. He holds a 1.80 ERA in five relief appearances against San Diego. 

Musgrove is having a strong year for San Diego with a 10-7 record and 3.03 ERA. 

However, this is an action play for me based on the Giants' hot streak and San Diego being in letdown mode.     

Flying back home from the West Coast after a series with the Padres, the White Sox can't be too excited to wrap up a very disappointing season with this series against the Twins.

The White Sox are 3-9 in their last 12 games. They have lost seven in a row at home.

Minnesota is in an excellent situational spot to beat the White Sox and their 36-year-old starter, Johnny Cueto, who has hit the wall with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts.

The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who has been below the radar. Ober has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine starts. He has a 1.56 ERA in his last three starts and has dominated the White Sox in two starts this season with a 1-0 record and 0.73 ERA.

There's more than meets the eye in this matchup. The Cardinals are home for the first time since Sept. 18. They return as National League Central Division champions. So their concentration level could be off especially facing the lowly Pirates. It's also their first home game since Albert Pujols hit his 700th big league homer. That could mean pregame festivities to celebrate and more distractions for the Cardinals.

The pitching matchup is Johan Oviedo versus Jack Flaherty. Name recognition certainly goes with Flaherty. But, again, more than meets the eye here.

Flaherty is on the comeback trail. He's 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA in four starts this year. Flaherty last pitched Sept. 22. So he could be rusty. The Cardinals probably aren't going to stretch him out either trying to balance rest and with getting prepared for their upcoming playoffs.

Oviedo won't lack motivation being a former Cardinal. He pitched brilliantly in his last start, blanking the Cubs on three hits in seven innings last Saturday.

Both starting pitchers, Drew Rasmussen and Framber Valdez, are having huge seasons. Both, though, are not in the best of form, which is needed if this low total is going to stay Under. I'm willing to say that each team should be good for at least three runs here. So I'm going Over.

Rasmussen is 10-7 with a 2.85 ERA on the season. However, he's lost three in a row. He has a 4.96 ERA during this stretch. Rasmussen faces a Houston squad that is fourth in the majors in homers and eighth in runs.

Valdez sports a 16-5 record and 2.69 ERA. However, he's off his worst of the season in which he gave up seven runs (four earned) on 11 hits and one walk in 5 1/3 innings versus the Orioles this past Saturday.

The Mariners are going hard to earn their first playoff spot in 21 years. The Rangers are playing the string out. They are 8-20 in their last 28 games.

Texas could be without shortstop Corey Seager, too. He's day-to-day with a bruised forearm. Seager leads Texas in homers with 32.

Rangers starter Jon Gray is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in two starts against the Mariners this year.

Seattle starter Marco Gonzalez is reliable at home where his ERA is 3.36.

This has been a crazy series so far with the Orioles winning, 14-8, on Monday and the Red Sox prevailing, 13-9, on Tuesday.

That was just the Red Sox's third win in their last 10 games.

The Orioles have lost seven fewer games than the Red Sox, who are headed for this first losing season under Alex Cora.

Orioles starter Dean Kremer could restore order. He's been fantastic in his last five starts with a 3-0 record and 2.16 ERA.

The Red Sox are going with Rich Hill, who is 2-4 with a 6.07 ERA at home. The 42-year-old Hill could be hitting the wall. He has a 5.96 ERA during his last five starts.

Wednesday Free Play

Tigers minus $1.25 hosting Royals

The Tigers stayed hot coming from behind to beat the Royals in extra inning last night. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games and has won four in a row. The Royals are 17-36 in their last 53 road games.

I'm going to ride the Tigers at this fairly low price in a pitching matchup of Daniel Lynch versus Matt Manning.

Manning is the better pitcher. He has a 3.43 ERA. Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA. Lynch has faced the Tigers three times this season and the results haven't been pretty. He has an 8.53 ERA in those games allowing 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while giving up four home runs.

The Tigers stayed hot coming from behind to beat the Royals in extra inning last night. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games and has won four in a row. The Royals are 17-36 in their last 53 road games.

I'm going to ride the Tigers at this fairly low price in a pitching matchup of Daniel Lynch versus Matt Manning.

Manning is the better pitcher. He has a 3.43 ERA. Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA. Lynch has faced the Tigers three times this season and the results haven't been pretty. He has an 8.53 ERA in those games allowing 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while giving up four home runs.

I find this total to be at least a run too short. The pitching matchup is Luis Cessa versus Bryse Wilson. 

Cessa has a 4.78 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. The Pirates are averaging 5.2 runs in their last five games.

Wilson has a 5.95 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. 

The Pirates have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Reds have the third-highest bullpen ERA. 

The wind is blowing out to left at 7-8 mph. 

Totals Under 7 are reserved for excellent starting pitchers. Lance Lynn and Bailey Ober don't fit that description. 

It's not difficult at all envisioning both teams scoring at least three runs apiece in this matchup. 

Lynn is 7-6 with a 4.02 ERA. He's made two starts against Minnesota this season and has a 9.90 ERA to show for it. The White Sox rank 20th in bullpen ERA. The Twins rank 12th both in batting average and home runs. 

The White Sox are averaging only two runs per game during their last five games. But they should have a breakout performance here against Ober, who has a 4.23 ERA in six career starts versus the White Sox. Ober has a 4.50 ERA during his past three starts. 

Despite their current struggles, the White Sox have the third-highest batting average in baseball. Minnesota's bullpen is average, ranking 16th in relief pitching ERA.

The Under has won only twice during the last 12 meetings between the two teams. 

Wrong team favored. The Orioles are seven games better than the Red Sox. Baltimore still is in the playoff hunt. The Red Sox were eliminated from playoff contention with their 2-0 loss to the Yankees Sunday night.

Boston has lost five in a row. The Red Sox have no incentive. They had to play last night in New York and sit through a 98-minute rain delay. The Red Sox haven't played at home in eight days so their concentration could be off returning from being on the road.

The Orioles are still fighting. They've been the most profitable team from a betting standpoint. Baltimore just played a tough series against the Astros. This is a major step down in class.

The pitching matchup favors Baltimore, too. The Orioles are going with veteran Jordan Lyles, who is 11-11 with a 4.50 ERA. Lyles is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but he rates an edge on overmatched Boston rookie Connor Seabold, who is 0-3 with a 10.47 ERA. Seabold has never won in the majors. He's been tagged for 11 runs in his last two starts spanning 7 2/3 innings.

This should be a loose game between two bottom feeders.

The Reds are going with washed-up veteran Chase Anderson, who has a 5.21 ERA in his return to the majors. Cincinnati's bullpen has the fourth-highest ERA.

The Pirates are starting Roansy Contreras, who has a 5.14 ERA in his last three starts. The Pirates lead the league in most errors committed and also have the highest bullpen ERA.

Both offenses should be aided by the weather conditions with the forecast calling for the wind to be blowing out to left at 12-13 mph.

Perhaps swayed by the Tigers being one of the teams here, the oddsmaker opened this total too short. I'm expecting at least nine runs to be scored.

How's that?

The White Sox are facing a mediocre lefty starter while they are going with Lucas Giolito at home.

Giolito has a winning record and 158 strikeouts in 143 2/3 innings. These numbers hide the fact that Giolito has been a major disappointment this season with a 5.07 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His ERA balloons up to 6.61 when pitching at home.

The Tigers scored a combined 16 runs in their previous two games before their last one.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the call for Detroit. He's 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA. Worse, he's a southpaw. The White Sox have the highest batting average in the majors against lefties at .279. They also rank No. 1 against southpaws in on-base percentage.

The White Sox just saw Rodriguez six days ago. Rodriguez has a 4.91 ERA during his past three starts. Detroit's bullpen was underrated earlier in the season, but it has regressed in part because of overwork. It no longer is dependable.

Since the start of June no team has played better than the Braves, who are 71-29 during their last 100 games.

However, the Braves are coming off a rare, sloppy performance, a 3-2 loss to the lowly Nationals on Wednesday. Look for Atlanta to bounce back today against the Phillies, losers of five of their last six games.

The Braves have clinched a playoff berth, but are chasing the Mets for the top spot in the NL East.

Not only are the Braves the superior team, but they hold a huge pitching edge with Max Fried going against Ranger Suarez.

Fried has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts. He is 6-2 on the road with a 2.60 ERA.

Suarez is 3-4 at home with a 4.70 ERA.

The oddsmaker opened this total short. The marketplace is betting it up and I'm in full agreement.

The Blue Jays have scored four or more runs in all but four of their last 23 games. This looms as a bullpen game for the Rays with JT Chargois and Ryan Yarbrough, who has a 4.33 ERA, figuring to see multiple innings.

The Rays should do their fair share of damage going against Jose Berrios, who has been terrible when pitching on the road with a 6.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 14 away starts. Berrios has a 4.83 career ERA versus the Rays in seven starts.

The Dodgers have squared off against division-rival Madison Bumgarner for 14 years. LA catches the 33-year-old Bumgarner on the downside of his career. Bumgarner is 6-15 with a 5.01 ERA. He has surrendered five or more runs in seven of his last nine starts with a 7.82 ERA during this span. He has a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings against the Dodgers this season.

LA leads the majors in runs scored while ranking in the top four in all of the major offensive categories.

So not a huge surprise if the Dodgers cover this Over just by themselves.

But the Diamondbacks should pitch in facing Dustin May, who is on the comeback trail following Tommy John surgery. This will be just his sixth start. He's likely to be on a pitch count.

Both teams carry a high bullpen fatigue rating following yesterday's doubleheader.

Kyle Freeland doesn't come to mind when rating the best pitchers in the National League. Freeland, though, has been excellent this month emerging as Colorado's top starter. He has a 0.93 September ERA in 18 1/3 innings giving up just two runs in three starts. 

The Giants have a below average offense. The Under has cashed in 10 of its last 12 games on grass. 

Carlos Rodon was San Francisco's original starter. But he was scratched. So this is going to be a bullpen game beginning with John Brebbia, who is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in 17 career appearances against Colorado. He hasn't allowed an earned run to the Rockies in 5 1/3 innings this season. 

I don't mind a bullpen game from the Giants because each of their pitchers should be fresh and able to go all out for strikeouts, which is important for an Under at Coors Field. 

Memo to oddsmakers regarding the San Francisco Giants. This is 2022 not 2021. The Giants are a mere shell of the team that won 107 games last year. They are eight games below .500 this season. They have lost nine of their last 13 games and have bagged their season with morale at low ebb after just getting swept by the Dodgers.

The Giants should not be favored against the Rockies at Coors Fields with a pitching matchup of Jake Junis against Chad Kuhl.

Junis is 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA this season. His ERA goes up to 5.35 when pitching on the road. Coors Field is the best hitting park in the majors. Junis is not in good current form either, going 0-2 with a 7.91 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in his last three starts.

Kuhl is a bottom of the rotation type starter, too, but he's pitched respectfully at Coors with a 3-3 record and 4.67 ERA in 10 starts there this season. The Rockies have been huge money-makers during Kuhl's last 25 home starts going 17-8. The Giants have been swinging cold bats failing to reach five runs in 12 of their last 13 games.

Colorado has won seven of its last 10 games. The Rockies are 40-34 at home and have the highest home batting average at .284. The next closest team is the Red Sox, who bat .269 at Fenway Park.

Teams can't help but have high and lows during the long baseball season. The Yankees were experiencing a low point, but have since rebounded to win eight of their last 10 games. They are averaging eight runs a game during their last four games, all victories.

The Brewers looked like a solid playoff team entering August. But they are a scuffling 19-20 in their last 39 games.

The Yankees hold a starting pitching edge here with Frankie Montas facing Adrian Houser. New York also has a strong bullpen advantage. Yankee relief pitchers have a 2.94 ERA. That's the second-lowest ERA in the majors. The Brewers' bullpen ERA is 3.94, which ranks 16th. The Brewers' relief corps isn't nearly as good minus closer Josh Hader. Devin Williams is now their lone dependable reliever.

Oh, yes, the Yankees also have the most dangerous hitter in baseball, Aaron Judge. He leads the majors by a wide margin with 57 homers. Judge is batting .462 during his last 52 at bats and is on a 15-game on-base streak.

Montas has settled down after a rough patch when he first came to the Yankees. He has a 3.89 ERA. Houser is a borderline bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.61 ERA.

Both teams were idle Thursday. The Yankees' bullpen is fresh. New York is 21-8 following an off day.

My first look is to the Under whenever the Marlins are in action. Why not? Miami has scored three or fewer runs in 15 of its last 18 games. The Marlins are in rebuild mode, playing youngsters who can't hit.

An Under makes sense here given this total in a pitching matchup of Noah Syndergaard versus Pablo Lopez.

Syndergaard has dominated the Marlins with a 7-2 record and 2.30 ERA in 14 career starts. Now he's not the same pitcher he was with the Mets, but he's crafty enough to hold punchless Miami down. He has a 3.27 ERA in two starts against the Marlins this season.

If you exclude a freakish 10-run game against the Rangers, the Marlins are averaging two runs per game during their last five games.

Lopez is good enough to hold the Phillies in check, especially throwing at pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park. He has a good lifetime record against Philadelphia with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts.

Weather shouldn't factor as there is just a slight wind - and it's blowing in.

I'm going to get behind the Orioles at a reasonable price facing Patrick Corbin, who has been one of the worst starters all season. 
The Orioles are battling for a wild-card spot. The Nationals have the worst record in the majors at 49-93. 

Corbin has done more than his share to saddle the Nationals with the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.06. Corbin is 6-18 with a 6.30 ERA. Washington has a bottom-10 bullpen. 

The Orioles are starting Tyler Wells, who is 7-6 with a 3.91 ERA. Wells is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two appearances against the Nationals, including one start. Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde said he won't be afraid to use Austin Voth and his top bullpen arms to secure this win since the Orioles are idle on Thursday. Baltimore has the sixth-lowest bullpen ERA in the league. 

The Tigers were no match for the Astros in the first two games of this series losing by a combined 10 runs. Don't look for anything to change in the series finale. It's a day game pitting Christian Javier against rooke Tigers lefty Joey Wentz.

This has all the makings of another lopsided Houston victory.

The Astros are an elite team. They are especially tough in day games and facing southpaws. Houston is 37-13 in day games this season. The Astros also are 42-14 the past 56 times they've gone against a lefty starter. Wentz has an 8.10 home ERA.

The right-handed Javier has a 3.01 ERA. That shrinks to 1.80 when he pitches during the day. The Tigers rank last in the league in runs and homers. They have lost 41 of the past 58 times when going against a righty starter.

I made this total a full run higher with a large part of that reasoning based on Kris Bubic being one of the starters.

Bubic is 2-11 with a 5.40 ERA. He shouldn't even be in a big league rotation. Bubic's ERA during his last three starts is even higher at 6.06. The Twins have scored four or more runs in four of their last five games.

Minnesota starter Joe Ryan is better than Bubic, but he's not in good current form with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts.

The Over has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams.

Unlike some teams, the Diamondbacks haven't quit at this late stage of the season. They have won 10 of their last 16 games. Arizona is swinging hot bats, too, scoring five or more runs in six of its last eight games.

Ryne Nelson makes his second big-league start. He was phenomenal for the Diamondbacks in his first start throwing seven shutout innings in a 5-0 victory against the Padres a week ago. Nelson allowed only four baserunners and struck out seven.  

Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson is enjoying an outstanding season. But Anderson doesn't have a good history against the Diamondbacks. He has a 5.22 career ERA and 1.46 WHIP against them in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.

This total is headed downward so there is an urgency to play it now. I can understand the marketplace getting involved in the Under. It makes sense in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Dylan Bundy. Both pitchers are below-the-radar pitching well.

 Quantrill has a 1.80 ERA in his past half dozen starts. He's backed by a Guardians bullpen that has been the best in the league since early August and is rested after the team was idle on Thursday.  Bundy has a 2.17 ERA during his last six starts. He's 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA in six lifetime games against the Guardians, including five starts.  There have been fewer than eight runs scored in 15 of Cleveland's last 17 games. 

Both the Twins and Yankees have well above average offenses. Thanks to Aaron Judge, the Yankees lead the majors in homers. Judge has smacked 55 home runs. 

So unless the pitching is dominant, this just isn't a big enough total. I don't see dominant pitching here with both starters, Sonny Gray and Nestor Cortes, returning from injuries. Both teams carry bullpen fatigue, too, following Wednesday's doubleheader.

Gray is one of many former Yankees pitchers who had trouble pitching for New York. Gray, who left his last start this past Saturday early due to hamstring tightness, pitched for the Yankees four years ago going 15-16 with a 4.51 ERA in 41 appearances, including 34 starts. He has a 4.55 ERA in five career starts versus the Yankees. 

Cortes has been out since Aug. 21 because of a groin injury. He had trouble when he faced Minnesota on June 8 giving up four runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings. Cortes has a 4.32 ERA in four career appearances against the Twins. 

Weather-wise, the wind is blowing in at 6-8 mph at Yankee Stadium. 

The Angels are a below average offense ranking in the bottom-six in batting average, runs and OPS. They've scored four or fewer runs in six of their last eight games.

But the Angels are the '27 Yankees compared to the Tigers.

Detroit ranks last in the majors in runs, homers and OPS. The Tigers are averaging a puny 2.3 runs in their last eight games.

Toss in two underrated starting pitchers, tough weather conditions and a huge Under umpire and you find this total to be too high.

Detroit starter Drew Hutchinson is 2-7 with a 4.06 ERA. Bad overall numbers. But Hutchinson has been decent during the second half of the season. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs in each of his past seven starts. He has a 3.38 ERA during his last three outings.

Angels starter Patrick Sandoval has been flying under the radar, not allowing more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts. He has a 1.23 ERA during his past three starts.

There's a heat wave on the West Coast. The temperature is expected to be around 100 degrees in LA Wednesday. Making things worse is this is a getaway day game. That means more reserves than normal could be in the starting lineup. The teams are going to want this game to end quickly.

Home plate umpire Pat Hoberg has a two-year track record to oblige them. The Under has cashed 26 of 37 times for 70 percent when Hoberg has been behind the plate during the last two seasons.

Even though the starting pitching matchup doesn't appear strong, this total still is too high given how bad the Tigers and Angels have been offensively.

The Tigers are last in the majors in runs, homers and OPS. They are averaging 2.5 runs in their last six games.

The Angels aren't much better. They rank in the bottom-five in runs, batting average and OPS. The Angels are averaging just 2.6 runs in their last six games.

Tyler Alexander faces Jose Suarez. Neither starter has a good ERA. Alexander, though, beat the Angels, 4-3, on Aug. 20. Suarez is 4-2 with 32 strikeouts during his last six starts.

The Dodgers lead the majors in runs scored and are second in batting average. They should be in line for another big scoring game facing Mike Clevinger, who they got to for five runs in 4 2/3 innings last month at Dodger Stadium in an 8-3 win against the Padres.

The Padres should do their share of damage as this is a bullpen game for the Dodgers. San Diego is averaging 5.8 runs in its last eight games.

The weather is a plus, too, in this game with a record heatwave in LA and the wind blowing out at 9-10 mph.

The White Sox are feeling pretty good about themselves after humiliating the Twins, 13-0, on Saturday. Dylan Cease nearly threw a no-hitter coming within one out of the feat. It was a highly emotional victory for the White Sox because of Cease's great effort.

Kudos to Cease for his outstanding effort and tremendous season. But the Twins aren't facing Cease today. They draw Lucas Giolito, who has been one of the more disappointing pitchers this season with a 5.27 ERA. The White Sox are without a number of key batters, including Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada. It remains to be seen if Luis Robert will return to the lineup. He's been in Florida for the birth of his second child.

The Twins are going with Dylan Bundy, who runs hot and cold. Bundy, though, has dominated the White Sox with a 6-0 career record. He's 2-0 versus the White Sox this season with a 2.35 ERA in three starts.

Giolito is in terrible form with a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts.

Both teams haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball. The Astros are averaging 2.8 runs in their last six games. The Angels haven't scored more than four runs in 12 of their last 14 games. They rank among the bottom-six teams in runs, batting average and OPS.

I don't see too many runs being scored here either in a pitching matchup of Shohei Ohtani versus Luis Garcia.

Ohtani is 11-8 with a 2.67 ERA and 176 strikeouts in 128 innings. He's 2-1 with a 1.08 ERA against the Astros this season. He probably won't have to face Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez, who didn't play last night due to a lingering hand injury.

Garcia is a middle-of-the-road type starter. He has a 3.61 career ERA against the Angels in nine outings, including seven starts. He has a 3.09 ERA in two starts versus the Angels this season. Garcia is backed by the best bullpen in the majors as Houston has the lowest bullpen ERA at 2.90.

Two well-below average offenses facing two young below-the-radar pitchers is a winning Under combination. That's what we have in this A's-Orioles matchup.

The Nationals are the worst team in baseball. Oakland is playing better than Washington with three straight victories, including a 10-6 win in Tuesday's series opener.

The Nationals are 2-6 during their last eight games. They have scored three or fewer runs in nine of their last 11 games and are 26-66 in their last 92 home games for a win percentage of 28 percent.

The A's hold a starting pitching edge, too, in this matchup with James Kaprielian facing Anibal Sanchez.

Kaprielian has pitched much better the last two months than he did earlier in the season with a 3-3 record and 3.86 ERA during his last 10 starts. The 38-year-old Sanchez sure looks washed-up. He is 0-5 with a 5.72 ERA.

When the worst team in the majors is chalk, I'm seriously looking at the underdog even if that team is the A's. On closer examination, Oakland should not be the underdog. The A's have fared better on the road and are playing much better than Washington right now.

Oakland is 5-4 in its last nine games. Oakland's last two games were victories against the Yankees. The Nationals are 2-5 in their last seven games. They have scored three or fewer runs in nine of their last 10 games.

The A's have the superior starting pitcher going, too, in a matchup of Cole Irvin versus Erick Fedde.

Irvin is 6-11 with a 3.16 ERA. He has a 2.71 ERA in night games and is coming off a brilliant start against the Marlins this past Wednesday throwing seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits and striking out 11.

Fedde is 5-8 with a 4.88 ERA, which climbs to 5.70 when he pitches at night. This is only his second August appearance after coming off the injured list last week.

On the surface this seems like a spot to back the underdog Angels. After all, they just swept three games from the Blue Jays in Toronto while the Yankees dropped their second straight game to the lowly A's in Oakland on Sunday.

But I don't see it that way. Instead I see this as a kill spot for the Yankees. So I'm taking them on the run line, eliminating the heavy juice that comes with backing the much superior Yankees.

Not only do the Yankees possess a huge offensive advantage, but they have the better starting pitcher going and a strong situational edge. The Angels just concluded a 10-game road trip that took them to Detroit, Tampa Bay and Toronto. They had to make the 5 1/2-hour flight back to Southern California on Sunday night while the Yankees just had a short flight from Oakland to Los Angeles already being on the West Coast .

Keep in mind, too, that the Angels had lost nine of 10 before sweeping the Blue Jays. The Yankees had gotten back in a groove winning five in a row before losing to Oakland on Saturday and Sunday.

Frankie Montas goes against lefty Jose Suarez. Montas is a good pitcher. He started slow when he was dealt to the Yankees but looked back to normal in his last start holding the Mets to two runs in 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts.

Suarez has a 4.19 ERA compared to Montas' 3.84 ERA. Suarez's ERA climbs to 4.81 when pitching at home. Suarez has fattened his record and stats facing the weak-hitting A's twice and Royals once during his last five starts giving up no earned runs in those three appearances spanning 17 1/3 innings.

Suarez is facing a Yankees squad that is first in homers and second in runs. Not exactly the A' and Royals. The Yankees are 40-18 in their last 58 games against a southpaw starter. New York also has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times on the road.

Cleveland defeated the Mariners in Seattle for the first time in six games Saturday night. The Mariners' bullpen let them down in that loss.

Look for the Mariners to bounce back today in a pitching matchup of Aaron Civale against Robbie Ray.

Civale has yet to fulfill his promise. He's 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA. That ERA shoots up to 6.56 on the road.

Ray isn't having the Cy Young Award season he had in 2021, but he's in excellent current form with a 2.37 ERA in his last three games - all Seattle victories. The lefty is 5-3 with a 2.69 ERA when pitching at home this season. The Guardians rank 25th against lefties in batting average and are 29th in slugging percentage versus southpaws.

Seattle has been one of the hottest teams in the league during the second half of the season winning 40 of its last 59 games.

Rookie lefty starter Nick Lodolo is a work in progress taking his lumps as he learns his craft for the rebuilding Reds. He has a 4.35 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Lodolo has hit a batter in 11 of his 12 big league starts. Cincinnati also has the highest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Nationals rank in the top 12 in batting average despite their terrible record and are seventh in OPS when going against left-handed pitching.

But those aren't the main reasons why I like this game to go Over at this number. Patrick Corbin is. He very well could be the worst starting pitcher in the league with a humiliating 4-17 record, 6.81 ERA and 1.81 WHIP.

The Nationals' bullpen is well below average, too, ranking 22nd in ERA. The Reds have scored at least five runs in six of their last eight games.

It's not very often - if ever - I land on the Over when the Tigers are involved. But I'll make an exception here in a pitching matchup of Eduardo Rodriguez versus Dallas Keuchel.

Rodriguez has been anything but reliable. He's been on and off Detroit's roster going through a tumultuous season. Rodriguez's road ERA is 5.30. The Rangers rank 10th in runs scored. Detroit's bullpen has regressed as the innings have piled up.

The Rangers are likely to find out first-hand what the White Sox and Diamondbacks learned the hard way this year - Keuchel is washed-up. Keuchel compiled a 2-7 record and 8.53 ERA pitching for the White Sox and Arizona this season before those teams wised up and released him.

Even when he was good, Keuchel had trouble with the Rangers posting a 4.98 ERA in 15 appearances, including 13 starts.

The Yankees are extremely home run-reliant. That's why they can get into trouble when playing in spacious West Coast parks such as the Oakland Coliseum. Proof of that is in the record. New York has lost 23 of the past 32 times in Oakland.

This is just the Yankees' second West Coast trip of the season. They dropped two of three to Seattle during their previous West Coast stay. The Yankees are 2-9 in their past 11 overall road games.

Oakland starter James Kaprielian has a 4.29 ERA. But he's pitched much better lately holding four of his last five opponents to two earned runs or fewer. The Yankees haven't been mashing like they were earlier. New York has been held to four runs or less in 13 of their last 14 games.

Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Yankees. Unlike Kaprielian, he's not in good form surrendering 15 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 23 2/3 innings. He has a 6.75 ERA against the A's during three career starts.

The Rockies are Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde when it comes to their home/road splits. Colorado is 35-31 at Coors Field and 18-39 away from home. The Rockies have the highest home batting average in the majors at .285. That's 20 points better than the next closest team. Colorado also is No. 1 at home in OPS and No. 2 in slugging percentage.

So I find this lay price cheap to back the Rockies against the Rangers at Coors in a pitching matchup of Dane Dunning versus German Marquez. 
Texas, 10 games below .500, nipped the Twins, 2-1, on the road Monday. Colorado was idle on Monday. So the Rockies have a fresh bullpen. 

Dunning is 3-6 with a 4.06 ERA. He's 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA during his last three starts. Note, though, those outings were against weak-hitting teams the A's, Mariners and White Sox. All of them were home, too. Dunning has been much worse on the road where he's 0-5 with a 5.08 ERA. 

Marquez is 6-10 with a 5.05 ERA. Marquez, however, has been pitching better lately giving up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts He's gone six or more innings in each of his last eight starts. Marquez has a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in four career starts against Texas. 

This total is priced too low in a pitching matchup of lefties Tucker Davidson versus Jeffrey Springs. 

Davison is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA. He's made two starts this season and his ERA is 7.20 in those outings. The Rays rank ninth in batting average against lefthanded pitching.

Springs is having a good season going 5-3 with a 2.52 ERA. But he's not some ace and has a bad history against the Angels with a 1-2 record and 5.51 ERA. Mike Trout is back playing for the Angels upgrading their offense tremendously. 

This is Monday's lone day contest. It's also a rare stand alone game for these two teams. The White Sox were rained out at Cleveland on Sunday. Chicago will have a rested bullpen. The White Sox begin a three-game road series against the Orioles on Tuesday. The Royals host the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. So this is a weird scheduling spot, which I consider a plus for the Under.

The White Sox are averaging 3.1 runs in their last six games. They have scored four or fewer runs in 14 of their last 18 games.

The Royals have a bottom-six offense and are mired in a huge scoring slump. Kansas City is averaging two runs per game during its last 10 games. The Royals haven't scored more than four runs in any of these past 10 games.

The starting pitchers - Daniel Lynch and Michael Kopech - are good enough to take advantage of bad offenses. They faced each other three weeks ago. The Royals won, 2-1. Lynch didn't allow a run in 5 1/3 innings. Kopech gave up only two runs in seven innings.

Lynch has pitched better lately than his 4.52 season ERA. He's held five of his last eight opponents to two earned runs or fewer. Kopech has a 2.77 day time ERA. He's at his best against bad offenses. That was evident two starts ago against the Tigers. Kopech shut out the Tigers for six innings, not giving up a hit while striking out 11 with three walks.

The game is at Kauffman Stadium, which is favorable to pitcher's. There's a slight wind blowing in too, at around 5-6 mph.

Baseball players are creatures of habit. But for the Red Sox and Orioles their routine is very different Sunday. They are competing in what has become the annual Little League Classic. ESPN televises this game from Williamsport, Pa., home of the Little League World Series.

Even though it's a 7 p.m. ET start, the players don't get their normal rest coming to Williamsport from Baltimore, which is about a three-hour drive. They must get up early in the morning and go right to the ballpark. That's part of the deal with this game is that the day is spent with the big league teams interacting with kids. That throws off the normal pre-game routine and zaps some strength. Light rain is in the forecast, too, which is a distraction for hitters.

This will be the fifth Little League Classic. Four of them have gone Under the total.

The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta, 9-9 with a 4.28 ERA, versus Dean Kremer, 5-4, 3.58 ERA. Pivetta runs hot-and-cold. Kremer hasn't had good success against the Red Sox in three starts. This is the first time Kremer is facing Boston, though, in a neutral setting.

Several players could miss the game. Tommy Pham didn't play Saturday because of lower back tightness. Eric Hosmer left Saturday's game with back spasms. Cedric Mullins didn't play either. He's dealing with a sore shin.

Rarely will a team sweep a series. That's especially true with the Angels, who are 15 games below .500. They edged the Tigers, 1-0, on Friday behind a four-hitter from Patrick Sandoval. The Angels are likely to win Sunday when Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for them.

Before that matchup we have this game pitting Reid Detmers against Tyler Alexander. Both pitchers have identical 4-3 records and 3.45 ERA's. The Tigers have the eighth-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Angels rank 20th in bullpen ERA.

I say the underdog Tigers get this middle game with scheduling a key factor. The Angels hadn't been away from the West Coast all month until Thursday when they flew into Detroit. They were OK for a Friday night game. However, this is a day game and an extremely early start for Los Angeles. The body clock of the Angels players is bound to be messed up. So there is more than meets the eye in this matchup making the underdog attractive.

While I don't expect the White Sox to give up 21 runs and 25 hits like they did to the Astros Thursday night, I do expect enough scoring for this game to go Over the total.

The Guardians are averaging 5.4 runs in their last five games. They draw Lance Lynn, who has been a major disappointment this season. Lynn has been at his worst on the road where he's 0-3 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in five away starts. He's nothing more than an innings-eater at this stage of his career - and not a very good one either.

The White Sox face Triston McKenzie, who is a good pitcher but has several factors working against him here. McKenzie has a 4.62 night ERA and is 0-2 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.41 WHIP career-wise against the White Sox in 29 2/3 innings. The White Sox have scored four or more runs in five of their last six games.

This is a rare weekday afternoon home start for the Angels. That means hitters are going to have it rough later in the day when shadows fall as they do at Angel Stadium. Both teams are well below average offensively. The Mariners rank 23rd in runs and 25th in batting average. The Angels are worse, ranking 25th in batting average and 27th in runs. The Angels are averaging 2.6 runs in their last five games.

I like Seattle rookie starter George Kirby, who is 4-3 with a 3.39 ERA. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his last six starts. He has a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Angels. He held the Angels to one run on six hits in six innings with eight strikeouts and no walks when he faced them 11 days ago.

Angels starter Touki Toussaint is more of a wild-card. He's 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA, though, and is coming off a strong start against the A's last Wednesday holding Oakland scoreless in five innings while allowing just two hits.

There have been at least nine runs scored in nine of Patrick Corbin's last 13 starts. It's not a coincidence that these games have been high-scoring. Corbin has gone from bad where he had a 5.82 ERA last season to a total disaster this year with a 4-16 record, 7.02 ERA and 1.82 WHIP.  The Cubs have scored 35 runs in their last seven games, an average of five runs per game. They have a number of promising hitters who can take advantage of Corbin's total ineffectiveness.  The Nationals can do their part to get this game Over the total facing lefty Justin Steele, who has a 1.41 WHIP. The Nationals have the sixth-highest batting average in the National League against lefty pitchers.  Both teams are well below average defensively and each team's bullpen ranks in the bottom-10 in bullpen ERA.  The Over has cashed 10 of the last 13 times when the teams have played in Washington. 

The gift that keeps giving is back. Stuck with a huge contract they gave to Patrick Corbin four years ago, the Nationals keep trotting him out. Never mind that Corbin has become the worst pitcher in the National League if not all of baseball. 

The Under hasn't won the last seven times the Blue Jays have hosted the Orioles. I don't see that streak ending here in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus Yusei Kikuchi.

Baltimore has some underrated pitchers. Bradish isn't one of them. He has a 6.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. The Blue Jays have seen him twice this season getting to him for 14 hits in 9 2/3 innings. Bradish has a 7.45 ERA against them. The Orioles' bullpen got worse during the trade deadline when closer Jorge Lopez was traded. 

Toronto is due to breakout after being held to only four runs against the Guardians during a three-game series going against Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill. Bradish is way beneath those starters. The Blue Jays have the second-highest batting average in baseball, rank fifth in runs and seventh in homers. 

The Orioles get to see Kikuchi for the third time this season. He is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against Baltimore this year, including getting battered for five earned runs in five innings last Monday. The Orioles smacked three homers against him in that 7-4 victory. 

The Mariners haven't scored more than four runs in seven of their last nine games. The Rangers have scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games. Both teams face strong starters in this matchup.

Logan Gilbert is 10-5 with a 3.47 ERA for Seattle. Gilbert has been better on the road where he's 6-1 with a 3.01 ERA. He also has a 3.05 ERA when pitching during the day.

Perez is having a career year with a 9-3 mark and 2.85 ERA. That fine ERA shrinks to 2.70 when Perez pitches at home.

Both pitchers will be helped by the wind blowing in at around eight miles per hour.

The Dodgers are cooking. They've won 11 in a row - all by more than one run. LA has scored seven or more runs in eight of its last 11 games. The Royals are 20 games below .500. So I'm on board to ride this Dodgers' string today in a pitching matchup of Andrew Heaney versus Brad Keller. 

Way under the radar, Mitch Keller is pitching the best ball of his career. The season numbers show a 3-8 record and 4.21 ERA. But Keller has been pitching great during his last five starts giving up just six earned runs during this 31-inning span. 

If given 1 1/2 runs, Pittsburgh would be 7-2 in Keller's last nine starts. One of those losses was 2-0 to the Rockies at Coors Field. 

Arizona is pitching Madison Bumgarner, who is on the downside of his career. He's 6-10 with a 3.96 ERA. Bumgarner has surrendered 14 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings during his last four starts allowing 30 hits and eight walks. He's given up a home run in four of his last five starts. 

The forecast is for the wind to be blowing out 13 mph. So that's a definite plus for the Over. So are the Mets getting to face a rusty starter, who isn't likely to pitch very many innings, and a Reds bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors and gives up the second-most home runs.

Cincinnati just placed Hunter Greene on IL. The Reds dealt Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle at last week's traded deadline. So who's left to start now? The Reds have come up with Justin Dunn, who hasn't pitched since June 17 because of a sore right shoulder. The Reds are likely to be careful with Dunn. That should mean a lot of innings from a Reds bullpen that has the worst ERA in the majors by far at 5.04.

The Mets rank fourth in runs and batting average. They fortified their hitting depth at the trade deadline picking up Tyler Naquin, Daniel Vogelbach and Darrin Ruff.

The Reds will be facing Chris Bassitt, who has a 3.61 ERA. Bassitt has been a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. But he's not Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer.

Even adding Juan Soto and Josh Bell, the Padres still aren't as good as the Dodgers. LA has beaten San Diego 16 of the past 18 times. This includes the first two games of this series by a 16-4 margin. I don't see things being any different in this series finale pitting Yu Darvish against lefty Tyler Anderson. 

The Dodgers are a blazing 14-3 since All-Star break. They have the best record in baseball at 74-33. 

Darvish hasn't been nearly as effective on the road as he has at Petco Park with a 4.50 away ERA compared to a 2.17 ERA at home. The Padres are 5-5 in his road starts. 
Anderson has been fantastic this season going 12-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

The Padres are a below average hitting team against lefties. They rank 20th in OPS versus southpaws and 23rd in slugging percentage. 

The Nationals give up the most runs and have the highest ERA in the majors. Take a bow Patrick Corbin. He's one of the Nationals most responsible for that with a 4-15 record and 6.57 ERA.

It's a mystery that Corbin still remains in Washington's rotation after his last five starts. This is how bad Corbin has been during these past five outings - 21 innings pitched, 24 earned runs allowed, 39 hits, seven walks and five homers. The Phillies rank fifth in most home runs.

The Nationals can do their part, too, to push this total Over. They are averaging a respectable four runs a game during their last four games. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been much worse at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park where his record is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA compared to 6-1 on the road with a 2.87 ERA.

The weather is a plus, too, for the Over with the wind blowing out at nine-10 mph.

The Diamondbacks are a respectable 27-27 playing at home. Colorado plays much worse on the road with a 17-34 away mark. 

Nick Pivetta can be very erratic. But the Red Sox still are worth backing at this price against a rebuilding Royals team starting lefty Kris Bubic.

Bubic is 2-6 with a 5.45 ERA. He has a 9.45 ERA in two appearances against Boston, including one start.

The Red Sox are 3-1 in their last four games beating the Brewers and Astros during this span. They clearly are stepping down in class here.

Boston got better at the trade deadline. The Red Sox are 13-4 the past 17 times facing a lefty starter.

The Royals have lost seven of their past nine games. They also are 2-7 the last nine times hosting Boston.

Johnny Cueto has been solid all season for the White Sox with a 2.86 ERA. He's been truly outstanding on the road with a 1.70 ERA. The price is right to back the White Sox and Cueto against the struggling Rangers, who are starting lefty Cole Ragans. This will be Ragans' big league debut.

The White Sox could be making their move. They've won four of their last five games. The Rangers are on a three-game losing streak having just gotten swept at home by the Orioles. The Rangers scored a combined seven runs in those three games.

Ragans has split his year between Double A and Triple A. The White Sox have the highest batting average against lefty pitching in the majors.

The Twins have an above average offense and a solid starter going in Sonny Gray. But they are trumped in both of these areas by the Blue Jays, who lead the majors in batting average, are third in runs scored and sixth in homers. They also have stud Alex Manoah on the mound.

Gray enters this month off a poor July where he posted a 5.92 ERA in five starts. Manoah is 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.37 on the road. Minnesota is averaging 3.4 runs in its last four games.

Toronto is 11-3 in its last 14 games. The Twins are stepping up after hosting the Tigers for three games. Minnesota defeated Detroit, 4-1, on Wednesday. The Twins, though, have lost 22 of the past 28 (78 percent) times following a victory.

Lance Lynn is a prime example of coming back too soon from an injury. The White Sox rushed Lynn back to the mound and he's been largely ineffective all season with a 1-4 record, 6.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Lynn has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his past five starts. He's surrendered six homers in his last starts spanning 16 innings. 

Brady Singer is one of the more underrated starters in the American League. His season marks are a 3.51 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Those are efficient numbers, but he's been in tremendous form allowing only two earned runs in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. That comes out to a 0.95 ERA. Singer has given up more than three earned runs only once during his last nine starts and that was four runs. 

The righthanded Singer has a 2.97 road ERA. The White Sox don't hit righties nearly as well as they do against lefties batting .280 versus southpaws and .251 against righties.

The Royals are a respectable 5-6 in their last 11 games. The White Sox are an underachieving 52-51 on the season. They are one of the few teams I give a negative handicapping check mark when it comes to the manager, due to the ineptitude of Tony La Russa. The game clearly has passed him by.

Seattle ranks 23rd in runs and 25th in batting average. And that's mainly factoring in emerging superstar Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners' best player, and Ty France, their lone .300 hitter. Those players are both out with wrist injuries. So it's not a coincidence Seattle is averaging 2.4 runs in its last five games.

I don't expect the Mariners to produce much against Jameson Taillon, who is backed by a Yankees bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA and just added Lou Trivino. Taillon is 10-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He just blanked another bad offense, the Royals, in six innings during his last start. That was a 1-0 victory this past Thursday. Taillon has been at his best at home with a 3.16 ERA.

The Mariners are throwing perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the American League, Logan Gilbert. He's 10-4 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 ratio. Gilbert is at his best on the road where he's 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA. The Mariners have committed the fewest errors in the league and rank fifth in bullpen ERA.

The Orioles have been the biggest money-maker this season for bettors. They are 16-7 in their last 23 games. That mark goes up to 21-4 in their last 25 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs, an 84 percent winning percentage.

Texas is 5-10 in its last 15 games.

So I'll ride the Orioles as they move on to Texas to face the Rangers in a pitching matchup of Spencer Watkins versus Jon Gray. Nothing against Gray, who has been pitching well for the Rangers. But Watkins is in good form with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts and Baltimore holds a bullpen edge. Orioles relievers have a fourth-best ERA mark of 3.05 compared to the Rangers' bullpen ERA of 3.79.

Sure the White Sox have been a disappointment at 50-50 through their first 100 games. But the A's are the worst team in the American League at 39-64.

What the White Sox have going in this game is one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the season - Adam Oller versus Dylan Cease.

Cease has become a dominant pitcher with a 10-4 record, 2.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He's tied for the third-most strikeouts in the AL. Cease hasn't permitted a run in his last 20 2/3 innings. He faces a pathetic A's attack that ranks last in batting average and OPS and is second-to-last in runs.

Oller could be the worst starter in the American League. Here are his numbers: 32 2/3 innings - 39 hits, 29 earned runs, 21 walks and nine homers allowed. That translates to a gory 8.07 ERA and 1.86 WHIP.

So, yeah, I expect the White Sox to win this game by multiple runs.

These are two terrible teams, right? Well that's halfway correct. The Reds are 22 games below .500. But the Orioles actually are an above .500 team. They have been the most profitable team by far for bettors in the majors this season.

Once again, the Orioles are mispriced. They should not have opened underdogs to the Reds.

Baltimore is 16-6 in its last 22 games and 27-15 going back to its past 42 games. The Orioles have pulled out 23 come from behind victories, which is the second-highest in the American League.

The Reds are bad and likely to get worse being already active as the Tuesday trade deadline approaches. Gone is Luis Castillo, their best pitcher. Tyler Naquin also has departed. More veterans could be following. That can't help the Reds' concentration, nor team morale.

I certainly don't see why the Reds should be favored from a starting pitching standpoint either with Austin Voth facing rookie Nick Lodolo. Voth is not going deep into the game. He's made six starts and 23 relief appearances. The Orioles are 7-1 in Voth's last eight appearances.

I'm fine with a Baltimore bullpen game. The Orioles have the third-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors at 3.00. Lodolo will be making his fifth start since returning from a 69-day stint on the injured list. He has a 4.08 ERA in those starts. That ERA becomes 7.56 if you count just day games, which this matchup is.

One more thing. The Reds have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.21.

The oddsmaker opened this game short. Given the two listed starting pitchers, it would be surprising if there weren't double-digit runs produced in this game. I seriously question if rookies Glenn Otto of Texas and Chase Silseth should be in big league rotations yet. But since they are - at least for this game - I will gladly take advantage of it.

Otto is 4-7 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. During his last six starts spanning 26 2/3 innings, Otto has permitted 21 earned runs, given up 31 hits and a dozen walks. 

Silseth has a 5.84 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He had a very strong debut against Oakland. However, since then Silseth has made five starts. He couldn't reach the fifth inning in any of those outings. During his last five starts, Silseth has allowed 16 earned runs on 27 hits - including seven homers - in 18 2/3 innings. The Rangers rank in the top-10 in homers.

The Guardians beat the Rays, 4-1, behind Shane Bieber on Friday. Tampa Bay had won the previous seven times hosting Cleveland.

Look for things to revert back to normal in the second game of this series in a pitching matchup of Zach Plesac versus Corey Kluber.

Tampa Bay is 31-19 at home. Kluber isn't the Cy Young Award winner of 2014 and 2017 anymore. But he's still highly respectable and has pitched his best at tricky Tropicana Field with a 4-1 record and 3.42 ERA at home.

Plesac, who is 2-8 with a 4.09 ERA, is not in good current form. He's 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts. He is 1-6 with a 4.97 ERA during his road starts.

The Guardians have lost 11 of their last 17 away contests. They are a below .500 team on the road.

This is not vintage Shane Bieber. But this total is priced like it is. Bieber has been a mere mortal this season with a 4-6 record and 3.55 ERA. He has a bloated 5.23 ERA during his last three starts.

Tampa Bay starter Jeffrey Springs is not in good form either with a 4.40 ERA during his last three starts.

Both starting pitchers have been surrendering the long ball. Bieber has given up six homers in his last seven starts. Springs has yielded five homers during his past three starts.

So it shouldn't be too much to ask each of these teams to each score three runs, which would be all that is needed to get this total Over.

Back at Yankee Stadium for the first time since July 17, the Yankees should be in a mood for a killing after getting swept in their two-game series by the cross-town Mets. The good news for the Yankees is they don't have to travel like the Royals. They also don't have to face Max Scherzer like they did on Wednesday.

The Yankees draw righty Brady Singer, who would be a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter for many teams. The Yankees are 41-19 the past 60 times they've gone against a right-handed starter. 

Jameson Taillon goes for New York. He's been better at Yankee Stadium where he's 6-1 with a 3.49 ERA. The Royals' bats have gone cold. Kansas City lost its last two games to the Angels getting shut out by rookie Janson Junk in a 4-0 loss on Wednesday and by Jose Suarez, 6-0, on Tuesday. Taillon and the Yankee bullpen, which has the second-lowest ERA in the majors, are superior to those Angels and their relief pitchers. 

The Royals are likely without two of their best players with catcher Salvador Perez out and shortstop Bobby Witt having missed the last three games due to a hamstring injury.

Note that of the Royals' last 10 defeats, all but one have come by multiple runs. 

Since a 27-17 start, the Angels have been in free fall. Even with their 6-0 win against the Royals on Tuesday, the Angels have lost 15 of their last 19 games. The Angels are without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. They are bad again on the road this season going 18-29 in away games.

The Royals were averaging 5.6 runs and 12.6 hits in winning three in a row until Tuesday's loss to the Angels. Look for Kansas City to get back to winning in a pitching matchup of Janson Junk versus Brad Keller.

Junk's minor league ERA is 3.88. Keller has a 4.16 big league ERA, but pitches better at home and during the day. His home ERA is 3.88 and his day time ERA is 3.05.

The Mets have been outstanding this season at 59-37. But they are trumped by the Yankees, who are 66-31.

The Mets scored eight runs in their last game this past Sunday against the Padres. However, the Mets had scored only 10 runs during their previous five games for an average of two runs per game. The Yankees have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 16 games. The Yankees are No. 1 in runs and homers. Aaron Judge has a MLB-high 37 homers with 81 RBI's and 80 runs scored.

The Mets can't compete with the Yankees' power. They rank 19th in homers. The Mets' offensive numbers go down when they face left-handed pitchers, which is the case here with southpaw Jordan Montgomery going against Taijuan Walker.

Walker has been superb with a 7-2 record and 2.55 ERA. But Montgomery has been very consistent for the Yankees with a 3.24 ERA. Montgomery is backed by a superior Yankees bullpen that ranks No. 2 in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Mets are well below average against lefty pitching ranking 21st in batting average, 22nd in OPS and 23rd in slugging percentage.

The Yankees have too many edges. The price is right to back them.

Until running into the Astros, the Mariners were the hottest team in baseball winning 14 in a row. Now the Mariners go from losing three straight to the 64-32 Astros to the 43-51 Rangers, who just lost two of three to Oakland, the worst team in the American League. 

Expect the Mariners to get back on track in a pitching matchup of Glenn Otto versus Chris Flexen. 

Otto hasn't proven he is big league caliber with a 5.40 ERA. Otto has given up 18 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. Texas is 0-5 in those games. The Mariners just faced Otto eight days ago and put up three earned runs on five hits, including two homers, in six innings during their 6-2 road victory. Seattle is 20-7 the last 27 times facing a righty starter. 

Flexen's 3.79 ERA ranks 19th in the American League. He's been especially hot lately going 2-0 with a 1.10 ERA during his past three starts. 

The Rangers have lost 42 of the last 58 times on the road against above .500 opponents. 

The A's are going for their first home sweep of the season having won the first two games of their series against Texas. Don't expect the A's to achieve this. 

Oakland has the worst record in the American League. A big reason for this is a 14-32 home mark. The Rangers are eight games below .500. But they have a plus run differential. They are a superior team to the A's and have the better starting pitcher going Sunday. 

Martin Perez versus Paul Blackburn may seem like a starting pitching draw. It isn't. 

Perez is 7-2 with a 2.68 ERA. He's been terrific on the road with a 3-0 record and 2.52 ERA in eight away starts. Texas is 12-2 in Perez's last 14 starts. Both losses came to the Mariners. The A's have the worst offense in the majors ranking last in batting average and OPS, second-to-last in runs and third-from-the-bottom in homers. 
Blackburn was selected to the All-Star team. But he's not a real All-Star especially when it comes to pitching in Oakland where he's 1-4 at home with a 6.75 ERA.

Blackburn started the season off extremely well, but he's run out of gas posting a 6.46 ERA and 1.60 WHIP during his past six starts spanning 30 2/3 innings. Blackburn also has a terrible history against Texas with an 0-2 record and 10.54 ERA in four appearances. 

The Rangers just saw Blackburn 11 days ago getting to him for five runs in six innings. Blackburn gave up four walks in that game, throwing just 55 strikes out of 101 pitches. 

There were 14 runs scored in last night's game between these two teams at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. I'm expecting at least a dozen runs to be scored in today's game with the pitching matchup pitting lefties Steven Matz against Mike Minor.

It's hard not to overreact to the Blue Jays destroying the Red Sox by 23 runs on Friday. Toronto pounded out 29 hits in winning, 28-5. 

Of course it was just one game. But it may take more than a day for the Red Sox to get rid of that embarrassment. But what really puts me on Toronto today besides its four-game win streak and hot hitting is the low lay price in a pitching matchup of Alek Manoah versus Kutter Crawford.

Cutter has a 4.50 ERA. That ERA goes up to 5.09 when he pitches at Fenway Park. Cutter's daytime ERA is 6.43. Manoah has become one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League with a 10-4 record and 2.28 ERA. He's faced Boston twice this year and is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Red Sox. 

The Red Sox could be without J.D. Martinez for a second straight game due to back pain, while George Springer could return to Toronto's lineup after sitting out Friday's game to rest a sore elbow. 

The Phillies have played their best ball since firing Joe Girardi going 27-14. The Cubs come out of All-Star break losers of nine of their last 10. Chicago has failed to break the three-run barrier in 10 of its last 11 games.

Kyle Gibson tamed a weak Marlins offense in his last start. He's certainly capable of taking advantage of the struggling Cubs, who are averaging 1.6 runs in their last six games. Gibson has 0.94 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Cubs are starting Justin Steeler, who is 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. 

Short price to lay with the superior home club. 

Logan Webb is dominant at home. He has a 2.37 home ERA and a 1.80 ERA during his last three overall starts. I don't see the Brewers staying within a run of the Giants going with Jason Alexander on the mound and with their star closer, Josh Hader, going through his roughest stretch.

Alexander has a 4.73 ERA. He's been fortunate to have an ERA under 5.00 considering opposing batters are hitting .314 off him. Alexander's ERA in his last three starts is 7.94.

The Orioles are averaging six runs per game during their last five games. The Rays are averaging 5.1 runs in their last seven games. There's a weather factor with the wind blowing out at 9-to-11 mph.

Jordan Lyles certainly can't be trusted to hold the score down. Baltimore may not have its best relief pitcher either. Corey Kluber has been pitching well lately, but he's far removed from the dominant Cy Young Award winning pitcher he once was.

So I find this total too low.

Journeyman Lyles has a 4.37 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He's at his worst, too, on the road where his ERA shoots up to 5.52. Orioles closer Jorge Lopez may be unavailable after throwing two innings on Saturday. The one time the Rays saw Lyles this season, they got to him for five runs in five innings.

These two teams met last Sunday with the same pitching matchup of Nick Pivetta against Jameson Taillon. It wasn't pretty. Both pitchers were battered in an 11-6 Red Sox victory. The Red Sox have beaten the Yankees in the past three meetings. The Yankees head into All-Star break weekend not playing well with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games. 

Pivetta is the epitome of a hot-and-cold pitcher. Taillon is in terrible form after a strong early-season performance. Tallion is 9-2, but his ERA is 4.01. His ERA during his last three starts is 8.22. 

So at this 'dog price, the Red Sox are worth a shot.

On the surface this total may look right in a pitching matchup of Mitch Keller versus Jose Urena. But on closer inspection, the total is too high.

Keller has a 4.88 ERA. But he's taken major steps this summer to becoming a respectable starter. Keller has held seven of his last nine opponents to three earned runs or fewer. He's off his best start of the year holding the Marlins to one run in seven innings this past Monday.

Urena doesn't get any marketplace respect. Yet he has a 3.00 ERA and is 2-for-2 in quality starts for the Rockies since coming up from the minors earlier this month. Urena is facing one of the weakest attacks in the majors. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in runs and is 29th in batting. The Pirates have scored four or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games.

The weather and home plate umpire are pluses, too, for the Under. The wind will be blowing in at 7-to-10 mph. Charlie Ramos is slated to be the home plate umpire. This is his first full year in the majors. The Under has cashed eight of 12 times when Ramos has been behind the plate.

Injuries and a brutal travel schedule have left the Astros extremely vulnerable for Friday's home game against the rested A's.

Oakland was idle Thursday. Houston wasn't. The Astros had to go extra innings to nip the Angels late Thursday night in Anaheim. This means the Astros didn't return to Houston until the wee hours of this morning. Because of this tough travel schedule, Astros manager Dusty Baker said he will be resting a number of his starters.

So at the very least, don't expect to see veteran catcher Martin Maldonado, Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel in Houston's starting lineup. Remember the Astros already are without injured Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. Altuve suffered a bruised leg on Friday so he's almost certainly out.

The pitching matchup is lefty Cole Irvin versus Jose Urquidy, who is replacing original listed starter Jake Odorizzi. The key is can the lowly A's still beat the Astros on the road even if Houston fields a JV type lineup?

Yes. Oakland actually has played much better on the road. The A's are 4-5 in their last nine games. They would be 8-4 in their last 12 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs.

Irvin is a crafty southpaw. He doesn't miss many bats, but he's tough to score against. He has a 3.32 ERA. The Astros rank just 21st in batting average versus lefties.

Urquidy has a 4.08 ERA. The A's just faced him a week ago scoring three earned runs off him. So they are familiar with Urquidy. If the Astros decide to go back to Odorizzi, they'll be going with a pitcher whose home ERA is 4.41. The A's are the worst-hitting team in the majors. But their offense has shown some spark lately averaging eight runs per game during their last three games. The Astros may hold back their closer and best reliever, Ryan Pressly, after he pitched two innings on Friday.

Houston would be 4-6 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs.