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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-01-22	Red Sox -145 v. Orioles		5-9	Loss	-145	11 h 7 m	Show
I see the Red Sox bouncing back after suffering a 2-1 extra inning loss to the Orioles on Saturday. Baltimore's most effective relief pitcher, Jorge Lopez, went two innings to get the win in that game. So don't expect Lopez to pitch in this game if needed. Even with that victory, the Orioles are still only 18-37 during their past 55 home games. The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta versus Jordan Lyles. Pivetta is inconsistent. But he is 6-1 career-wise against Baltimore. Lyles is just plain bad. It's a mystery how he stays in a big league rotation. He has a 5.40 ERA this season. The Orioles are likely to be missing Trey Mancini, who is dealing with bruised ribs. While the Red Sox are expected to get back slugger J.D. Martinez from a groin injury that has sidelined him for the past three games.
04-30-22	Reds v. Rockies -135		3-4	Win	100	9 h 20 m	Show
The Reds have become an auto-fade with their 27th ranked offense and 30th-ranked defense. Cincinnati is 3-17 and has lost four in a row. The Rockies defeated the Rockies by six runs at home last night. Now Colorado has its hottest pitcher going, Chad Kuhl. He's made strong adjustments to his game and is off to a 2-0 start with a 1.10 ERA. Kuhl hasn't allowed more than four hits in any of his three starts. Things don't figure to improve for the Reds in this game as they are starting fill-in pitcher Connor Overton to make his season debut. I'm not expecting much from Overton pitching at Coors Field.
04-30-22	Cubs v. Brewers -160	Top	1-9	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
The Brewers' Eric Lauer may be the least appreciated starting pitcher in baseball. Lauer came on strong last season and he's continued tough this season with a 1-0 mark, 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Lauer has a great bullpen behind him, including a rested Josh Hader. Milwaukee's bats have started to awaken, too. The Brewers are averaging 7.2 runs in their last four games. The Cubs and their starter, Justin Steele, shouldn't stand in the way of another Brewer victory. Steele has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It's questionable if he should even be in a big league rotation.
04-30-22	Mariners +110 v. Marlins		1-3	Loss	-100	7 h 1 m	Show
In Robbie Ray we trust. The Marlins are hot, but Seattle is an underdog and has the superior starting pitcher going here with Ray. Ray won the AL Cy Young Award last season. The lefty has a 2.12 career ERA in nine appearances against the Marlins. Ray should be able to neutralize three of the Marlins' hotter players - Jazz Chisholm, Joey Wendle and Jesus Sanchez - all of whom are lefthanded. The Marlins are 20-33 against southpaws going back to last season. The Marlins are starting Jesus Luzardo, who has a 3.77 ERA.
04-29-22	Reds v. Rockies -112	Top	4-10	Win	100	10 h 19 m	Show
The pitching matchup is Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene versus Antonio Sezatela. Green has a 5.27 ERA. I don't think he's fully ready yet for the majors. But this is an action play for me with the major handicap being a fade on the Reds. Cincinnati is the worst team in baseball right now with a 3-16 record. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games, including 2-9 this year. The Rockies are a much better team when playing at Coors Field where once again they own a winning record. The Rockies should take care of business at home against a Reds squad that has the worst run-differential by a wide margin at minus 14. The Reds have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are last in ERA at 5.83. Cincinnati is a total mess. This is an easy lay number to fade the Reds.
04-27-22	Mets v. Cardinals +106		5-10	Win	106	13 h 15 m	Show
The Mets do not have a good history when facing southpaws on the road losing 42 of the past 60 times in that role. New York is facing lefty Steven Matz. Matz was bombed by the Pirates in his opening start. Since then, though, he has been excellent in two starts, holding the Brewers and Reds to a combined one earned run in 10 2/3 innings with a 12-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mets starter Carlos Carrasco has looked good in his first three starts. However, two of those outings were against the Diamondbacks and Nationals. The Cardinals are 22-9 the past 31 times when going against a righty starter.
04-26-22	Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks		3-5	Loss	-130	10 h 15 m	Show
The Dodgers have the most feared lineup in baseball. All 12 of their victories have been by more than one run. I'm going to ride that streak against a bad Diamondbacks team that ranks among the worst hitting and fielding teams in the majors. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has been brilliant so far with a 0.69 ERA giving up only one run in three starts. He's backed by a rested Dodgers bullpen following Walker Buehler's complete game shutout victory last night. Journeyman Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies isn't going to be able to match LA's pitching.
04-26-22	Guardians +148 v. Angels		1-4	Loss	-100	10 h 10 m	Show
The Guardians are due for a victory. I see them getting it here in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie versus Patrick Sandoval. I'm high on the right-handed McKenzie, who has a 2.38 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. The free-swinging Angels are a bad fit against him. The Angels are 6-13 in their last 19 games against a righty starter. I'm not a fan of Sandoval, who has a 6.14 ERA and 1.91 ratio in two previous starts against the Guardians. The Angels are 7-15 in their last 22 home games. They also have dropped 10 of their last 14 games to the Guardians at home.
04-26-22	Mets v. Cardinals OVER 7		3-0	Loss	-100	8 h 18 m	Show
A pitching matchup of No. 5 type starters Chris Bassitt versus Jordan Hicks shouldn't have a total this low, especially now that the NL uses the DH. Bassitt is coming off a 5-2 loss to the Giants where he gave up five runs on eight hits in six innings this past Wednesday. Hicks is on a pitch count as he tries to come back from Tommy John surgery. Both teams have above average offenses. The Mets rank seventh in runs and fourth in batting average. There's a slight wind blowing out to left. The Over has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams.
04-25-22	Astros -130 v. Rangers		2-6	Loss	-130	10 h 4 m	Show
The Astros have dominated the Rangers winning 40 of the past 59 times. I expect that domination to continue this season. This price still is low enough to back Houston in a pitching matchup of Framber Valdez versus Dane Dunning. Valdez had his way with the Rangers last season going 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Dunning isn't going to be able to slow down a strong Houston lineup especially with a weak bullpen behind him. Dunning is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in two career appearances against Houston. He has a 5.68 ERA this season.
04-22-22	White Sox -103 v. Twins		1-2	Loss	-103	8 h 15 m	Show
Healthy now, this is the year of Michael Kopech. I really believe that. I drafted him way ahead of his average draft position in my Rotisserie baseball league and so far Kopech is living up to his high ceiling with a 1.00 ERA through two starts. Kopech has given up just three hits - only one extra base hit - in nine innings. Opponents are batting .107 against him. Look for Kopech to continue his hot hand against the Twins. He's 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 1.29 ERA. The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who has a 3.27 ERA. Ober has potential, too, but he's not the prospect Kopech is. Ober has a 4.76 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in five starts. This isn't a good situational spot either for the Twins returning home after concluding a seven-game road trip yesterday.
04-21-22	Cardinals v. Marlins -125		0-5	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
The Marlins have trouble with the Cardinals. They've lost the first two games of the series to them. That makes eight straight losses to St. Louis. But circumstances and Pablo Lopez should put an end to that skid. The price is right to back St. Louis with Lopez going against what should be a St. Louis bullpen game. Lopez is at his best at home and during the first half of the season. He's 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA this season. Career-wise, he has a 2.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP when pitching at LoanDepot Park, formerly Marlins Park. Jordan Hicks is scheduled to make his first start for St. Louis after 114 relief appearances. Hicks is in comeback mode after his season ended in early May last year because of a serious elbow injury. He's not expected to pitch deep into the game.
04-20-22	Rays v. Cubs +101		8-2	Loss	-100	7 h 33 m	Show
Fatigue, an overworked bullpen and playing on a grass surface all work against the Rays in this matchup. So does facing Marcus Stroman. This is enough to put me on the Cubs. Tampa Bay hasn't been sharp with a 6-6 record. This will be the Rays' 13tht straight day of playing. Their first off day comes Thursday. Their best reliever, Andrew Kittredge, had to work two innings to get a save on Tuesday. The Rays are 2-6 in their last eight games on grass, which is an off-surface for them. Stroman is solid. I prefer him at home against Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen.
04-18-22	Phillies v. Rockies +152		1-4	Win	152	10 h 5 m	Show
Like many teams the Phillies struggle in Colorado. They are just 2-9 in their last 11 games at Coors Field. Yet they are mid-sized favorites here starting Aaron Nola. I find this line to be mispriced because of that. Nola wasn't good last season. He had a 4.63 ERA and surrendered 26 homers. He hasn't been good this season in two starts with a 6.75 ERA. Chad Kuhl gets the start for Colorado. He has a 2.08 ERA this season and is 2-0 lifetime with a 2.70 ERA in five appearances against Philadelphia, including three starts.
04-18-22	Rays v. Cubs +133		2-4	Win	133	9 h 3 m	Show
I'm sure by the end of the season the Rays will have a much better record than the Cubs. But right now Tampa Bay doesn't deserve to be such a large road favorite against the Cubs. The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games. The Cubs are back home for the first time since their opening series against the Brewers when they took two of three. The pitching matchup is Shane McClanahan versus Kyle Hendricks. I like McClanahan, but not enough to back him in this spot with the Rays not playing well.
04-17-22	Braves v. Padres -126		1-2	Win	100	8 h 20 m	Show
Yu Darvish can mix in a clinker with gems. But he's worth this short price at home against the Braves, who are going with Byrce Elder, their No. 6 starter. Darvish had a 3.38 home ERA with a 0.95 WHIP last season. The prideful Darvish shut out the Diamondbacks in six innings during his first start. However, he was bashed by the Giants in his second start, not even making it to the second inning. I see him bouncing back here.
04-17-22	Astros +100 v. Mariners		2-7	Loss	-100	5 h 20 m	Show
The Astros are the superior team so I'm interested in backing them in this price range. The pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus rookie Matt Brash. Urquidy has proven solid. He has a 1.80 ERA this season and a 3.38 career ERA versus the Mariners in four appearances. Brash is an intriguing prospect, but he has yet to prove himself. The Mariners will be without one of their better hitters as Mitch Haniger is on the COVID-19 list. Houston has dominated the Mariners in Seattle winning 26 of the past 38 times there.
04-16-22	Cubs v. Rockies -121		6-9	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
The price is cheap enough to back the Rockies at home against a bad Cubs team. Colorado is pitching Antonio Senzatela. The righty knows how to pitch in high altitude going 3-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 15 starts at Coors Field last season. The Cubs are 6-15 in their last 21 games versus righty starters. This has the makings of a bullpen game for the Cubs. They are going to start Mark Leiter, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2018. I'm not expecting much from Leiter and a host of Cubs relievers facing a Rockies lineup that always hits much better when playing in Coors Field.
04-15-22	Reds v. Dodgers OVER 9		1-3	Loss	-105	9 h 29 m	Show
It took three games, but the Dodgers' have their bats going. LA has scored 23 runs in its last three games. They're facing second-year Vladimir Gutierrez and a suspect Cincinnati bullpen. The Reds have faced good starting pitchers in each of their first seven games, including Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler and Charlie Morton. Now they get to drop down in class going against bottom-of-rotation Tony Gonsolin, who rarely goes deep into games. Gonsolin gave up three runs to the Reds in 2 1/3 innings during his lone appearance against them last season. The Over has cashed the last four times the Dodgers have hosted the Reds.
04-15-22	Cubs v. Rockies -113		5-6	Win	100	8 h 1 m	Show
I'm looking for the Rockies to bounce back at home after losing the series opener to the Cubs. Colorado is going with its best pitcher, German Marquez. He looked great in his first start this season, holding the powerful Dodgers to one run on three hits in seven innings pitching in Coors Field. Marquez, an All-Star last season, is 27-18 lifetime at Coors with a 4.67 ERA. Cubs starter Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, too, but I'm willing to lay this short price to get Marquez and Colorado at home. The Rockies are 27-11 the past 38 times they've been favored while the Cubs are 19-49 the last 68 times they've been a 'dog.
04-14-22	Cubs v. Rockies -118	Top	5-2	Loss	-118	19 h 57 m	Show
The Rockies are tough at home. The Cubs are weak against lefty starters. So a combination of Chicago playing at Coors Field and facing southpaw Kyle Freeland does not bode well for the Cubs. Colorado is 50-34 in its last 84 home games. The Cubs are 9-21 in their last 30 games when going against a southpaw starter. They have lost 13 of the past 17 times (76 percent) taking on a lefty starter on the road. The oddsmaker is giving too much respect to Justin Steele, who looked good for the Cubs in his first start this season but has yet to prove anything in the majors. Freeland is a reliable starter for Colorado and he knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The Cubs have been held to seven runs during their last three games.
04-13-22	Mets +106 v. Phillies		9-6	Win	106	13 h 50 m	Show
Max Scherzer isn't slowing down on his way to the Hall of Fame. Aaron Nolan wasn't good last season. He wasn't good in his opening start this season. The Phillies are averaging two runs in their last three games. So I'm happy to take a small plus price on the Mets. Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, had a 2.46 ERA last season. This included a 3-0 mark with a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings against the Phillies. Career-wise, Scherzer is 14-4 versus Philadelphia with a 2.50 ERA in 25 career starts. The current projected Mets' starting lineup is batting a cumulative .140 against Scherzer. I trust Scherzer far more than Nola. The Mets' bullpen has been solid, too, through the first five games with a 3.44 ERA. Nola had a 4.63 ERA last year, way up from the 3.28 ERA he compiled in 2020. Nola has a 6.00 ERA in one start this season after giving up four runs - including two homers - in six innings against the A's, who are considered to be one of the worst teams in the majors.
04-12-22	Mariners +111 v. White Sox		2-3	Loss	-100	4 h 29 m	Show
There will be times to play on the White Sox. This isn't one of them. Not in a pitching matchup of Matt Brash versus Vince Velasquez. Brash is the Mariners' top pitching prospect. He struck out 12 during 9 1/3 innings in spring training. He draws a White Sox lineup that is missing several key bats, including Yoan Moncada and AJ Pollock. But this handicap also is a fade on Velasquez, who I now consider a lower-end starter. Velasquez was 3-9 with a 6.30 ERA in 25 games with the Phillies and Padres last season proving unreliable in 21 starts. The Mariners have a tremendous knack for winning close games. They are 7-2 the past nine times as underdogs and 21-8 in their last 29 road games.
04-11-22	Padres v. Giants -139	Top	4-2	Loss	-139	21 h 42 m	Show
Remember Nick Martinez? Can't blame you if you don't. He pitched for the Rangers from 2014-2017 before going to Japan. Martinez, who was 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA for the Rangers, is back in the majors and getting the start here for San Diego. I much prefer the Giants at home going with Alex Wood. San Diego is stepping way up in class going from playing the worst team, the Diamondbacks, to the best. San Francisco had the most regular season wins in the majors last year. They are 44-18 in their last 62 games when favored at home. The Padres are 9-23 during their last 32 road games. Wood has been very solid. He was 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA last year. Wood was tremendous last September in his final four starts posting a 1.38 ERA during that span. Wood won't have to deal with Fernando Tatis Jr., who is out with a wrist injury.
04-11-22	Brewers -139 v. Orioles		0-2	Loss	-139	16 h 34 m	Show
Same old Orioles. Baltimore is 0-3 to begin this season getting swept by the Rays by a combined margin of 28-9. The Orioles struck out 37 times in their 3-game series against the Rays and were 2-for-24 with runners in scoring position. The Rays are an excellent team. So are the Brewers. Milwaukee got its confidence up nipping the Cubs, 5-4, Sunday after losing the first two games of the series. The pitching matchup is Adrian Houser versus Bruce Zimmermann. Houser is one of the more underrated backend starters. He went 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA last season. Houser had a 2.50 ERA in day games last season. He's backed by a deep and talented bullpen, one of the best in baseball. Zimmermann had a 5.04 ERA last season. That hideous ERA was even worse in day action last season at 6.23 ERA and was 5.33 in April. Baltimore remains a terrible home team at 28-58 during its past 86 home contests.
04-10-22	Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9		4-3	Win	100	6 h 60 m	Show
The pitching matchup is Tanner Houck versus Jordan Montgomery. Houck has a 1.86 career ERA in five appearances, including three starts, against the Yankees. Montgomery gave up three runs or fewer in 23 of his last 30 starts last season. Both bullpens are strong and deep, especially the Yankees. This is a night game with the temperatures forecast to be in the mid 40's. Tripp Gibson is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's considered to be one of the better Under umps in the league with a wide strike zone.
04-10-22	Astros -105 v. Angels		4-1	Win	100	15 h 25 m	Show
The Astros are the stronger team with better depth and they should have their main bats in after resting several key players on Saturday night. Angels starter lefty Jose Suarez has a career ERA of 5.70. The Astros are 7-3 the past 10 times going against a southpaw starter. Houston starter Jose Urquidy is solid. He went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA and had a 0.99 WHIP last season. The Angels are just 3-12 in their last 15 home games.
04-10-22	Marlins v. Giants -120	Top	2-3	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
This is my Max Unit Sunday Special. The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season. While I don't believe the Giants can match that mark this season they still rate a strong edge against the Marlins, who were 67-95 last year. Miami has been terrible on the road going 14-42 in its last 56 away games. The pitching matchup is southpaw Trevor Rogers versus Anthony Desclafani. The Giants were 27-20 against lefty starters in 2021. Rogers has potential, but I like Desclafani better especially now that he's away from Cincinnati and throwing in a pitcher's park. Desclafani had a career season in his first season in San Francisco last season going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA. He was at his best at home, too, going 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA.
04-10-22	Indians -102 v. Royals		17-3	Win	100	13 h 30 m	Show
The Guardians have held the Royals to four runs during the first two games of this series. Yet Cleveland is 0-2. The Royals are far from a power. So they shouldn't be favored when Cleveland has a starting pitched edge, which they do here. I'll take righty Cal Quantrill against Kris Bubic. Quantrill was 8-3 with a 2.89 and 1.18 WHIP last year. Bubic was 6-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The Royals were 48-64 against right-handed starters last season.
04-09-22	White Sox -128 v. Tigers		5-2	Win	100	3 h 44 m	Show
The White Sox blew Friday's opener against the Tigers. But they are much the superior team. I expect them to bounce back today with Dylan Crease. Crease has dominated the Tigers going 11-0 with a 1.82 ERA against them. Casey Mize goes for Detroit. He's talented, but hasn't been a big innings pitcher. That puts the Tigers' vulnerable bullpen into play.
04-08-22	White Sox -129 v. Tigers		4-5	Loss	-129	12 h 13 m	Show
The price is low enough to get involved with the White Sox especially facing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. The White Sox crush lefties with a lineup that leans heavily on right-handed batters. The White Sox have won 40 of their last 58 games when going against a southpaw starter. Rodriguez is on the downside of his career. He had a 4.74 ERA last season. The Tigers should be improved, but the White Sox are easily the class of the AL Central Division. Chicago is pitching its ace, Lucas Giolito.
04-07-22	Mets v. Nationals +120	Top	5-1	Loss	-100	18 h 14 m	Show
The Nationals are a home 'dog to the Mets. That's not surprising considering New York has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Neither of those two studs is pitching, though. Instead the Mets are going with second-year Tylor Megill, who was 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts last year. I'm projecting a nice comeback season for Washington starter Patrick Corbin. So I'm going to take a plus price with Washington. Corbin was terrible last season. But the southpaw appears to have straightened things out looking great during his two spring training starts posting a 0.00 ERA. Corbin struck out 10 in nine innings while permitting just six hits. The Mets were 18-33 versus lefty starters last year. The National League is using the DH now. The Nationals signed one of the best DH's in Nelson Cruz.
11-02-21	Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5	Top	7-0	Loss	-114	23 h 27 m	Show
We've reached the sixth game of the World Series. Fatigue is setting in and the starting pitchers don't look so imposing anymore. I can see each side scoring at least four runs. So I'm going Over the total. Max Fried gets the start for Atlanta. He was solid during the regular season. But this strictly is a ''what have you done lately for me,'' case. The answer is nothing in Fried's case. He's given up 11 earned runs in a combined 9 2/3 innings during his last two starts against the Dodgers and Astros this past Wednesday in Game 2. The Astros beat Fried, 7-2, in that Game 2 matchup getting to him for six runs on seven hits in five innings. The Astros could only manage a combined two runs in Games 3 and 4. But they burst out in Game 5 this past Sunday winning, 9-5. Dusty Baker's perceived strength as a manager is the players like him. He's known as a player's manager. Baker, though, was a hitting coach before he began his managerial career. Baker helped jumpstart Houston's attack in Game 5 by adjusting the batting order, moving up Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel while dropping a slumping Alex Bregman. This worked. The Astros always were getting men on base. Now they were driving them home. Atlanta should be able to score on Houston starter Luis Garcia, who has a 7.62 ERA in four postseason appearances. He's pitching on just three days' rest after going 3 2/3 innings this past Friday throwing 72 pitches in that game. The Astros' bullpen has had to work 14 2/3 innings during the last three games. So there should be some vulnerability there.
10-31-21	Astros -111 v. Braves	Top	9-5	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
Maybe the Braves will beat the Astros and win the World Series. But I don't see it happening here in this Game 5. The Astros have the best offense in baseball having led the majors in runs scored, batting average and on base percentage. Yet Houston has scored only two runs during the past two games, unable to break through against Atlanta's bullpen. The Astros are ready to bust loose. They left 11 men on base in Saturday's 3-2 loss, including eight in scoring position. This is the fifth game in six days and third straight. The Braves' bullpen has fatigue concerns and are forced to use their relief pitchers a lot in this game. While the Astros have Framber Valdez starting, the Braves likely are going to need Tucker Davidson and Drew Smyly to eat the bulk of the innings in this Game 5. That favors the Astros more than this opening number indicates.
10-27-21	Braves +107 v. Astros		2-7	Loss	-100	10 h 48 m	Show
The Astros are home, but they're in trouble in this second game already down 1-0 in the World Series. Atlanta is on house money and has the better starting pitcher going today plus a bullpen that has been pitching out of its mind. Max Fried held a lot of promise entering the season and he came through in big fashion down the stretch. Fried continued his hot run with two of three strong pitching performances in the playoffs. He's backed by a dominant bullpen that is still fresh at this early stage of the World Series. I'm not high on Astros starter Jose Urquidy. He was the forgotten man during the playoffs. His only postseason appearance came back on Oct. 18 against the Red Sox and it was bad. Urquidy allowed six runs, of which five were earned, in just 1 2/3 innings. He hasn't pitched since.
10-27-21	Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5	Top	2-7	Win	100	10 h 50 m	Show
I can easily see each team scoring at least four runs in this Game 2 World Series matchup. The Braves beat the Astros, 6-2, for a total of eight runs in yesterday's Game 1. But the teams combined for 20 hits while leaving 18 men on base. Atlanta hit the third-most homers in the majors. The Braves are a top-eight offense. They are averaging 5.1 runs during their last six games against good pitching. Houston has the best offense in baseball. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 14 games. The starters are Max Fried, who has a 3.78 ERA in three playoff starts this season, against Jose Urquidy, who looked bad in his only postseason start giving up six runs on five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Oct. 18.
10-26-21	Braves v. Astros UNDER 8.5	Top	6-2	Win	100	23 h 17 m	Show
There may be some high-scoring games in this World Series. Just not in this Game 1. The pitching matchup is lefty Framber Valdez versus Charlie Morton. Valdez is tough on opponents unfamiliar with him because of his effective curveball and sinker. He mixes them well. Valdez was dominant in his last start holding the Red Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings last Wednesday. The Braves batted .239 against lefty pitching during the regular season. That ranked them 24th. They were 23rd in on base percentage versus southpaws. The Astros have been swinging hot bats. But they haven't played since Friday, a span of four days. That's the longest the Astros have been idle since the All-Star break back in mid-July. Morton is a big-play pitcher. He's had World Series experience with the Astros and Rays during the last five years. He is 7-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 16 playoff appearances, including 15 starts. Morton is backed by a rested Braves' bullpen that was great against a potent Dodgers lineup. Will Smith, A.J. Minter and Jesse Chavez combined to shut out the Dodgers in their 12 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts. Tyler Matzek was dominant in Game 6. Luke Jackson was outstanding during the regular season.
10-22-21	Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5	Top	0-5	Loss	-115	19 h 49 m	Show
This series isn't about pitching. It's all about offense. Boston's bats have gone quiet the last two games. But I expect the Red Sox to explode against Luis Garcia, who has given up 13 earned runs in three playoff appearances spanning 8 2/3 innings. Garcia had to leave his last start six days ago against the Red Sox because of a sore knee. He surrendered five runs in one inning of work. The Red Sox had the third-highest batting average during the season. Only four teams scored more runs than Boston. The Red Sox have scored 6 or more runs in eight of their last 12 games. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 12 games. Houston is averaging seven runs in its last dozen games. Nathan Eovaldi goes for Boston. The Astros have seen him twice in the series getting to him for seven runs in six innings. Neither bullpen instills any fear. Pitching usually trumps hitting. Not in this series, nor in this game, though.
10-20-21	Astros +112 v. Red Sox	Top	9-1	Win	112	8 h 51 m	Show
By stunning the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night, the Astros have regained momentum in this AL championship series. I believe Houston should have opened the favorite. So I'm on the Astros at a plus price. The Red Sox have pounded the ball during the postseason. But the Astros have the best offense in baseball. Houston is averaging 6.9 runs in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez versus Chris Sale. Those two pitched against each other this past Friday and Houston won, 5-4. Valdez is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six career playoff games, including five starts. Valdez is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Red Sox, including two starts. Sale hasn't been effective down the stretch. He has a 14.73 ERA in the playoffs this season and a lifetime 6.91 ERA in six career postseason starts. Sale's big name and past accomplishments don't come close to matching how poorly he's pitching now.
10-18-21	Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9		3-12	Win	100	10 h 9 m	Show
There's only one way to play the total in this game - and it's surely not Under. Boston manager Alex Cora said he feels ''really good offensively,'' about his team. He should. The Red Sox have scored 13 runs during the first two games of this series. They are averaging 7.8 runs in their last five games. Boston has scored six or more runs in six of its last eight games. Certainly the Astros figure to get their share of runs. They led the majors in runs and batting average. Houston is averaging 7.1 runs in its last nine games. The Astros have scored a minimum of five runs a game during these past nine games. Neither team has a starting pitcher, or the bullpen, to stymie these powerhouse offenses.
10-16-21	Dodgers v. Braves +122		2-3	Win	122	9 h 2 m	Show
This is an action play for me. I don't care who the Dodgers start here. Max Fried is pitching well for Atlanta and LA is in a terrible situational spot. While the Braves were resting after finishing off the Brewers in four games during their Division Series, the Dodgers had to endure a tough five-game series against their long and most hated rival, the Giants. The Dodgers finally finished off the Giants with a tense 2-1 victory late Thursday night. Following that game, the Dodgers had to make the long flight to Atlanta. This sure looks like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Fried, a native of LA, was sharp in his first postseason start holding the Brewers scoreless in six innings last Saturday. Fried is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a mind-boggling 0.39 ERA. The Dodgers are missing Max Muncy and his 36 home runs. LA has scored 3 or fewer runs in four of its six playoff games.
10-15-21	Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5		4-5	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
The combination of two of the best offenses in baseball facing starting pitchers not in good form puts me on the Over. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. The Red Sox had the third highest batting average and ranked fifth in runs. Boston is starting Chris Sale, who was last seen giving up five runs on four hits in just one inning against the Rays. Sale didn't pitch well either during his final regular season start against the Nationals pulled in the third inning. He's not backed by a strong bullpen either. The Astros are swinging hot bats averaging 7.7 runs in their last seven games. They have scored at least six runs in each of these games. Framber Valdez gets the start for Houston. He wasn't impressive in his last playoff start surrendering four runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox. Valdez has allowed eight runs this month in only 9 1/3 innings. The Red Sox have scored five or more runs in six of their last seven games.
10-14-21	Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7	Top	2-1	Win	100	22 h 7 m	Show
Baseball got what it wanted - a Game 5 between the Dodgers and Giants in their best-of-five playoff series. The oddsmaker knows this is likely to be a pitching duel between Julio Urias and Logan Webb, both of whom are backed by rested bullpens with the teams having been idle on Wednesday. The marketplace is buying this as the total has dropped to 6 1/2 at a number of shops. I'm buying it, too, locking into Under 7. Urias faced the Giants in Game 2 holding them to one run on three hits in five innings. Urias has won his last 12 decisions. He has a 2.61 career ERA against San Francisco. Webb has been the Giants' best pitcher. He threw 7 2/3 shutout innings against the Dodgers in Game 1. Webb has held the current LA lineup to a .208 batting average. Each team is missing an important hitter with Max Muncy out for the Dodgers and Brandon Belt sidelined for the Giants. The clincher for me, though, is who the home plate umpire is scheduled to be: Doug Eddings. The Under has cashed 59 percent of the time during the past two years Eddings has been behind the plate comprising 44 games. If you go by the last five years, Eddings has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire.
10-11-21	Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers		1-0	Win	100	21 h 45 m	Show
It's very close between these two teams, despite the inflated spread on the Dodgers. The big-market Dodgers with their dazzling array of super talent are always going to carry a high price. I feel very comfortable taking 1 1/2 runs with the Giants on the run line especially with them being the visitor and thus assured of getting nine innings worth of at bats. San Francisco is 6-4 at Dodger Stadium this season. Another reason for this huge price is the Dodgers are pitching Max Scherzer while San Francisco is going with southpaw Alex Wood. My handicap is on the Giants not against the Dodgers. I certainly respect LA and Scherzer, a worthy Hall of Famer. But the guy is 37 and he did give up 11 runs, 10 of which were earned, during his last two regular-season starts. Scherzer gave up one run on three hits and three walks in 4 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in the Dodgers' wild-card game. Scherzer threw 94 pitches in those 4 1/3 innings. Lifetime versus the Giants, Scherzer is 4-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 11 starts. The Giants are an amazing 40-15 in their last 55 road games against a righty starter. Wood has been solid for San Francisco going 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA in 26 starts. Wood, a former Dodger, has a 3.05 career ERA at Dodger Stadium throwing 250 2/3 innings there. The Dodgers ranked eighth among National League teams in batting against lefties and were ninth in on-base percentage against southpaws.
10-08-21	Red Sox v. Rays -135		14-6	Loss	-135	8 h 32 m	Show
Many teams have trouble playing at quirky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one of them. Boston has lost in eight of its last 10 visits to Tropicana Field, including a 5-0 defeat in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. The Rays are a dominating 46-17 in their last 63 home contests. Chris Sale gets the call for Boston on the comeback trail after missing last season and most of this year following Tommy John surgery. Sale went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA in nine starts. He last pitched on Sunday against the Nationals on the road giving up two runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. I don't know if Sale can ever reach his former dominant form. The Rays are going with Shane Baz, who just might be their most talented pitcher. Baz had a 2.06 ERA in 17 Double-A starts and has a 2.03 ERA in three big league starts going against the Blue Jays, Marlins and Yankees. I'm not sure if the Red Sox are ready for him. Boston's offense is hampered with J.D. Martinez out.
10-07-21	White Sox v. Astros OVER 7.5		1-6	Loss	-120	15 h 17 m	Show
Neither of the first two postseason baseball games went Over the total. I see that changing here because this total is set too low. The White Sox have scored 5 or more runs in six of their last seven games. They finished with the fifth highest batting average in the majors and scored the seventh-most runs. Houston's offense is even more impressive. The Astros rank first in runs and batting average. They are averaging 7.6 runs in their last three games. Lance McCullers and Lance Lynn, these Game 1 starters, are good but not dominant pitchers. Lynn has a bad history versus the Astros with a 4.41 lifetime ERA in 14 appearances, including 13 starts.
10-06-21	Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	1-3	Loss	-105	20 h 57 m	Show
Adam Wainwright goes against Max Scherzer in this winner-take-all playoff game. The oddsmaker is expecting a low-scoring game given this total. That sure makes sense given the pitching matchup and rested bullpens. I can easily envision a 4-3 type of game. The Dodgers are once again overpriced here. They are so overpriced that I can afford some insurance by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the underdog Cardinals and not have to pay a premium price to do it. I have the utmost respect for Scherezer, who has been great since joining the Dodgers going 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA. This isn't a fade on him, but a value play on the Cardinals, who have been fantastic down the stretch going 35-16 during their last 51 games. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Cardinals would be a mind-blowing 21-1 in their last 22 games! St. Louis is 11-1 the past 12 times as an underdog. They are 17-4 in their last 21 games facing a righty starter, including winning the past eight times. The 40-year-old Wainwright showed he's far from washed up. He is 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA . He was tremendous down the stretch going 6-0 with a 2.44 ERA during his last eight starts. Career-wise against the Dodgers, Wainwright is 7-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 appearances, including 14 starts.
10-05-21	Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5	Top	2-6	Win	100	24 h 37 m	Show
Starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi have proven themselves in the postseason. Cole is 8-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 13 playoff starts. Eovaldi is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in six career postseason appearances that includes two starts. Neither manager is going to hold back with his top bullpen pitchers either as the winner won't play again until Thursday. Weather-wise favors the Under with wind blowing in at seven miles per hour and possible light rain in the forecast. These teams have an Under bias, too, in their rivalry. The Under is 12-3-1 the past 16 meetings. The Under also has cashed six of the last seven times the teams have met at Fenway Park.
10-02-21	Rockies v. Diamondbacks -134		2-11	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
The buy sign is on with Zac Gallen. He was one of the most promising pitchers in baseball until injuries derailed him. But he's back now and looking great. Just ask the powerful Dodgers. Gallen held LA to one run on three hits in six innings last Saturday in a 7-2 victory. Gallen also was sharp recently against Colorado. He shut the Rockies out on three hits in seven innings with nine strikeouts and only one walk on Aug. 21. The Diamondbacks are motivated not to finish with the worst record in team history. They are furious about blowing a huge lead to the Rockies on Friday. Colorado is a terrible road team with a 26-52 away mark.
10-02-21	Mets +113 v. Braves		5-6	Loss	-100	9 h 1 m	Show
The Braves rested several regulars in Friday's 4-3 loss to the Mets and they are going to sit out a number of key starters again today. The Braves have their playoff ticket punched so they don't care about this game. It's a bullpen game for Atlanta with Jesse Chavez being the nominal starter. A bunch of young pitchers for Atlanta could see action here. The Mets are going with veteran Carlos Carrasco. New York's best everyday players should be in the lineup with their careers on the line as the Mets decide the future course of their team.
10-02-21	Reds -154 v. Pirates		6-8	Loss	-154	8 h 6 m	Show
The Pirates embarrassed the Reds on Friday. The pitching matchup clearly favors Cincinnati today. It's a meaningless game, but I do believe prideful Tyler Mahle will dominate the Pirates. He's facing a bad pitcher in Max Kranick. Mahle has had a career year with 13 victories, 12 quality starts and 204 strikeouts. He has been at his finest away from hitter Great American Ball Park where he's 8-2 with a 1.85 ERA. The Pirates rank 30th in homers and RBI's. Kranick is a horrible pitcher on a horrible team. He's 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA.
10-01-21	Rockies -117 v. Diamondbacks		9-7	Win	100	11 h 57 m	Show
Arizona owns the worst record in baseball at 50-109. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 12 home games. So anytime I can lay a short price against them, especially with the superior starting pitcher, I'm going to look to do that. Veteran Jon Gray goes for Colorado. Gray has failed to live up to No. 1 starter status with Colorado, but he's decent given that he has a 4.28 ERA and plays half of his games at Coors Field. Rookie Humberto Castellanos also has a 4.28 ERA. He has made only six big league starts. The Rockies have lost 24 fewer games than the Diamondbacks. Arizona is 6-24 in its last 30 games. Colorado is on a two-game win streak. The Rockies are 26-10 the past 36 times when favored.
10-01-21	Indians -116 v. Rangers		9-6	Win	100	9 h 21 m	Show
Sometimes you can find good spots and value in meaningless games. That's what we have in this matchup. Cleveland rookie Eli Morgan is 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA. Bad numbers. However, Morgan is coming off two well-pitched games against strong offenses. Morgan held the Yankees and White Sox to a combined one run and seven hits in 12 innings during his past two starts. Now Morgan steps way down in class to face the Rangers. Texas is tied with Pittsburgh for the third-worst record in baseball at 59-100. The Rangers are pitching Spencer Howard, who is 0-4 with a 7.04 ERA. He's never gone more than four innings. The Indians usually do the job when favored, winning 16 of the last 22 times in that role.
09-30-21	Padres v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	3-8	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
The Dodgers have lived up to their super team status. They are 38-13 since August. The Padres had high hopes of challenging the Dodgers. That didn't materialize. Now the Padres are a dead team, eliminated from playoff contention and 1-10 in their last 11 games. They have lost eight in a row to the Dodgers. I see the Dodgers rolling over San Diego again in a pitching matchup of Vince Velasquez versus Tony Gonsolin. The Padres have discovered the hard way what the Phillies found to be true - Velasquez is not a big league starter. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.22 ERA. He's 0-2 with the Padres with a 9.00 ERA. He's made eight career appearances against the Dodgers and is 1-3 with a 7.88 ERA. Gonsolin is one of many outstanding young pitchers the Dodgers have. He's 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 12 starts. At home, Gonsolin is 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA. He's made six starts at Dodger Stadium this season. Career-wise versus San Diego, Gonsolin is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 13 2/3 innings.
09-30-21	Brewers +101 v. Cardinals		3-4	Loss	-100	13 h 34 m	Show
The Brewers snapped the Cardinals' 17-game win streak Wednesday night winning, 4-0. Mission accomplished, though, for the Cardinals. They have earned a wild-card berth. This is a quick turnaround being an early start. The Cardinals have to be a bit deflated with their win streak - the longest in the majors in five years - now history. The pitching matchup is southpaw Brett Anderson, who has a 4.30 ERA, versus lefty J.A. Happ, who has a 5.86 ERA. The prideful veteran Anderson won't lack motivation after the Cardinals knocked him out in the second inning just eight days ago. The Brewers are 5-1 the past six times going against a lefty starter. Milwaukee has been a top road club, too, winning 38 of its last 54 away contests. The Cardinals still could be missing star catcher Yadier Molina. He's been out the last two games due to shoulder stiffness.
09-29-21	A's v. Mariners OVER 7.5	Top	2-4	Loss	-108	20 h 40 m	Show
Granted, Frankie Montas and Logan Gilbert have pitched well this month. But this total is set too low. The A's rank 12th in runs. They are averaging 5.2 runs this month. The Over is 7-1-1 the last nine times the A's have gone against a righty starter on the road. Gilbert has a 4.83 ERA on the season. He's a back-of-the-rotation type starter. Seattle has scored 4 or more runs in 20 of its last 24 games. Montas has pitched 12 innings against Seattle this year and given up seven earned runs.
09-29-21	Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5		3-2	Loss	-100	16 h 19 m	Show
Given this is a meaningless game with a pair of mediocre starters and bullpens with a high fatigue rating due to Tuesday's doubleheader, I find this total to be short. Elieser Hernandez goes for Miami. He has a 4.24 ERA and doesn't usually pitch deep into games. Mets starter Taijuan Walker has dealt with injuries his entire career. It's a bit ironic that Walker is one of the few healthy Mets starters left. That hasn't been a plus, though, for New York. Walker has largely disappointed with a 7-11 record and 4.57 ERA. His ERA during his past five starts is a hideous 8.10.
09-29-21	Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles		6-0	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
I see the Red Sox bouncing back in a big way after losing, 4-2, to the Orioles on Tuesday. Boston has beaten Baltimore 12 of the past 14 times. Nathan Eovaldi goes for Boston. He's 6-1 in his last seven starts. He has a 3.88 ERA on the season. The Red Sox get to face rookie southpaw Zac Lowther, who has been overmatched this season. Lowther has a 7.66 ERA. He has given up 10 runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Red Sox. Boston ranks third in the American League in batting average against lefties. Each of the Red Sox last seven victories have been by more than one run.
09-28-21	Nationals v. Rockies -133	Top	1-3	Win	100	19 h 51 m	Show
The Rockies have been outstanding in one role this season - that as a home favorite where they are 24-7. I like the Rockies as home chalk in a pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin versus Kyle Freeland. Corbin has been among the most disappointing pitchers this season with a 9-15 record and 5.92 ERA. Corbin's night ERA is even worse at 6.28. The Rockies average 5.6 runs at home. Freeland is experienced pitching at Coors Field. He's been solid in his last three overall starts with a 3.50 ERA.
09-28-21	Rays v. Astros -130		3-4	Win	100	18 h 16 m	Show
I rarely go against the Rays. I have tremendous respect for them and their manager, Kevin Cash. However, I have no respect for Michael Wacha. I think he's terrible. So I'm going to fade Wacha and his 3-5 record and 5.49 ERA and back the Astros knowing there are favorable angles backing Houston. Such as: Houston is 54-18 (75 percent) following a day off. Houston also gets up for the best competition going 11-3 the past 14 times versus an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. The Rays have had problems when playing at Houston losing five of the past six times there. The Astros are going with Jose Urquidy, who is 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He's superior to Wacha, who has a 6.14 career ERA versus the Astros having made two relief appearances against them. Wacha has a fat 5.82 ERA during his last 12 overall starts.
09-28-21	Phillies v. Braves -114		1-2	Win	100	17 h 27 m	Show
I have a lot of respect for Zach Wheeler. The righthander has been very good this season. I have far less respect for the Phillies' 34-41 road record. I also respect Charlie Morton, especially in big games such as this one. Morton has come on after a slow beginning with the Braves to post a 2.95 ERA in his last 18 starts. The price is low enough for me to back the home Braves. Atlanta is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Braves also have won the past seven times when facing a righty starter.
09-27-21	White Sox v. Tigers +150		8-7	Loss	-100	11 h 28 m	Show
After 10 consecutive road games, the White Sox were looking forward to a day off Monday and then finishing the regular season at home. That's not going to happen, though. Because of a rainout, the White Sox have to make this stop in Detroit before coming home to play their last five regular season games. The White Sox are the AL Central Division champions. But they are just one game above .500 since the All-Star break. They can't be too excited about this game either. Perhaps the White Sox should be favored. But certainly not by this high of a price in a pitching matchup of Dallas Keuchel versus Matt Manning. The 33-year-old Keuchel is 8-9 with a 5.18 ERA. He has his worst strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2012 when he was a rookie. He's faced the Tigers three times this season and has a 6.00 ERA against them. The current Tigers roster is batting .324 against him. Manning is one of the Tigers' prize prospects. The rookie has had his ups and downs with a 4-6 record and 5.73 ERA. However, Manning has been pitching better allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.
09-24-21	Mets v. Brewers -130		1-5	Win	100	9 h 10 m	Show
Neither the Mets nor Brewers are playing well right now. Milwaukee just got swept four games by the Cardinals. The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 games. St. Louis is the hottest team in baseball winning 12 in a row. The Brewers just happened to run into the Cardinals. Now they drop down in class facing the Mets. The Mets have lost 11 of the past 12 times they've played the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brewers are the better team and have the stronger pitching matchup here with Eric Lauer versus Tylor Megill. Lauer is sailing below-the-radar with a 1.83 ERA in his last 13 appearances, which includes 12 starts. He's backed by a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen. Megill started well, but has hit a rookie wall. He has a 6.31 ERA. in his last seven starts.
09-23-21	Giants -102 v. Padres		6-7	Loss	-102	15 h 15 m	Show
Too much undeserved respect is being given to the Padres here. All the Giants do is win. They are 15-4 in their last 19 games and have been the most profitable team for bettors this season with the best record in baseball. The Giants also have their most effective pitcher going - Logan Webb. The season record shows Webb at 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA. But that's counting a slow start. Webb hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in 16 of his last 18 starts. He also hasn't lost a game since May 5. The Padres have collapsed. Yu Darvish hasn't helped. He's been a major disappointment with an 8-10 record and 4.13 ERA. Darvish has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last nine starts. He's recorded just one victory since June 21. Given the pitching matchups and price, it's a no-brainer to back the Giants.
09-22-21	Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11	Top	5-10	Loss	-115	10 h 8 m	Show
Playing on marketplace perception, the oddsmaker has a tendency to set a higher total than what should be at Coors Field. The Under has cashed in 22 of the Rockies' last 32 home games. I'm expecting another Under in today's game at Coors Field between the Dodgers and Rockies, who have gone below the total the past six times they've met. The pitching matchup is Walker Buehler versus German Marquez. I don't doubt Buehler will come in with a strong performance being a Cy Young Award candidate with a 14-4 record and 2.39 ERA. He has a 2.77 ERA in two starts at Coors Field this season. Buehler has yielded two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 16 starts. I see Marquez holding up his end, too. He's 8-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season. He also has a 2.52 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Dodgers.
09-22-21	Twins v. Cubs +106		5-4	Loss	-100	8 h 26 m	Show
I'm going to side with veteran Kyle Hendricks at a plus price pitching at home against rookie Joe Ryan. Hendricks is having a disappointing season, but he's a proven commodity and he knows how to navigate tricky winds at Wrigley Field. Those are the weather conditions in today's games with winds at 23 mph blowing in. Hendricks won't lack motivation as this likely will be his final home start. Ryan has looked good for Minnesota - but the sample is short. This is his fourth big league start. Two of them came against the weak-hitting Indians. The other was against these same Cubs, who got to him for three runs in five innings on Sept. 1. So the Cubs are familiar with Ryan. Note the Twins are 0-5 the past five times they've been interleague favorites.
09-21-21	Royals v. Indians -138	Top	1-4	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
Given the pitching matchup, the Indians are priced way too low. Cal Quantrill remains below the radar. He's 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. Quantrill has been at his best at home, too, where he's 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Quantrill didn't allow an earned run in 6 2/3 innings during his last start, which came against the Twins. The Royals are pitching Daniel Lynch, who is 4-5 with a 5.34 ERA. Lynch last started against the A's this past Thursday. He was pulled after two-plus innings because of tightness in his left calf. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on two hits.
09-20-21	Orioles v. Phillies OVER 8		2-0	Loss	-120	17 h 10 m	Show
John Means is the Orioles' lone decent starter. Ranger Suarez has been fantastic for the Phillies with a 1.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. But opening an Orioles-Phillies game at less than 8 1/2 runs is a mistake no matter who the starting pitchers are. The Orioles are the worst defensive team in the league with perhaps the worst bullpen, too. The Phillies' relief pitching is very vulnerable, too. The Phillies have an above average offense. They are averaging 6.8 runs in their last five games. The Orioles rank 14th in homers. They have four players with 21 or more homers. So they have some sock. Playing at hitter-friendly Citzens Bank Park is another plus for the Over.
09-18-21	Mariners +101 v. Royals		1-8	Loss	-100	8 h 52 m	Show
The Mariners are 13 games better than the Royals, have more to play for being in the wild-card race and are 7-0 in their last seven games in Kansas City. Yet, the Mariners opened slight underdogs. The pitching matchup of Yusei Kikuchi versus Kris Bubic doesn't justify that. Both are lefthanders. The Royals hit lefties better and have a winning record against southpaws at 25-22. Seattle, though, is 31-25 versus lefty starters. Kikuchi is 7-8 with a 4.23 ERA. He permitted just one run in five innngs during his last start this past Sunday against the Diamondbacks. He recorded eight strikeouts. Bubic is 4-6 with a 4.99 ERA. He lasted just 4 1/3 innings when he faced the Mariners on Aug. 27 allowing five runs on nine hits.
09-17-21	Braves v. Giants UNDER 8		5-6	Loss	-111	12 h 56 m	Show
You would be hard-pressed to find a hotter pitcher than Logan Webb. He is 15-1 in his last 16 starts with a 1.93 ERA during this span. Webb faced the Braves last month and shut them out for seven innings in a 5-0 victory. The Under has cashed in nine of the Braves' last 10 away games. Braves starter Ian Anderson should do his part for the Under. He's been solid with a 7-5 record and 3.61 ERA. Anderson pitched against the Giants Aug. 29 and held them scoreless for 5 2/3 innings in a 9-0 victory. The Braves' bullpen is completely rested because their Thursday game was called off.
09-17-21	Padres v. Cardinals -130	Top	2-8	Win	100	17 h 12 m	Show
The Padres' season could be on the line here. So who do the Padres call upon? Vince Velasquez. Ouch! That's the best the Padres could do was go to the junkyard to pick up Velasquez and his 5.95 ERA following injuries to Blake Snell and Chris Paddack. Velasquez faces a hot Cardinals team that has won seven of eight, including the last five. Miles Mikolas, who was outstanding last season, gets the start for St. Louis. He's rounding into shape after being out several months due to a forearm injury. The Cardinals have a rested bullpen after being idle on Thursday. San Diego has lost 11 of the last 13 times it has been a road 'dog.
09-15-21	Indians -104 v. Twins	Top	12-3	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
This one is simple. The Indians have the much better starter and superior bullpen. The low price gets me involved. Cal Quantrill is flying below the radar. He's 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA. He just faced the Twins six days ago and held them to one earned run on four hits, two walks with five strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. Quantrill was the winner in that 4-1 victory. Griffin Jax gets the call for Minnesota. He's 3-3 with a 6.72 ERA. The Twins have a bottom-10 bullpen. The Indians have won 13 of the last 17 times they've been favored.
09-15-21	Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8.5		9-4	Loss	-101	13 h 13 m	Show
There's much to like in going Under this total. It's a getaway day game so several starters could get rested. Then we have a pitching matchup of Tanner Houck versus Marco Gonzales. There's a slight breeze blowing in and Hunter Wendelstedt is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 59 percent in the 22 games he has been behind the plate this year. Houck hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any game he's pitched this season. This is the best pitcher's park he's pitched in all season. He faces a weak Seattle offense that ranks 30th in batting average and 27th in OPS. Gonzales is 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA in day games. Only once in his last 11 starts has Gonzales permitted more than three earned runs.
09-14-21	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5	Top	4-8	Win	100	13 h 24 m	Show
Neither of these starting pitchers, Luke Weaver and Tony Gonsolin, moves the needle for me. Injuries have held back Weaver. He's been mediocre with a losing record and 4.24 ERA. Weaver has been at his worst on the road with an 8.20 ERA. LA is averaging six runs during its last three games. Gonsolin doesn't have good control and doesn't go deep into games. The Dodgers will be lucky to get five innings out of him before turning things over to their vulnerable middle relief. Arizona has scored 4 or more runs in eight of its last 10 games. Mark Wegner is slated to be the home plate umpire, which is a plus for the Over. The Over has cashed in 16 of 24 games he's been behind the plate during the last two years for 67 percent. Tuesday Free Play Rays plus $1.21 at Blue Jays Toronto is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is putting up MVP numbers leading the majors in homers with 45. So the oddsmaker is justified in making the Blue Jays a home favorite. This has perked my interest in the Rays. It's rare to get them in this plus price range. Tampa Bay has won 42 of its last 61 games. The Rays own the best road mark in the American League at 44-29. Some of this line may be influenced by the Blue Jays' dominant 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday. Alek Manoah was magnificent, throwing a one-hitter in eight shutout innings. Manoah has the capability to do that against any team. I see the Rays faring better facing today's starter, Joe Berrios, who is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA in four lifetime starts versus Tampa Bay. Drew Rasmussen is slated to start for Tampa Bay. He's 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA. We know how much Kevin Cash loves his bullpen and his relief pitching depth has increased with the return of Nick Anderson, who has been out with an elbow injury. Anderson was 5-1 with a 1.43 ERA during the previous two years.
09-13-21	Red Sox v. Mariners +115		4-5	Win	115	20 h 53 m	Show
The Mariners don't generate much respect, but they are a feisty, underrated crew that is dangerous as home 'dogs. Seattle is 11-5 the past 16 times taking a plus price at home. Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games with its two victories during this span occurring by one run each. The Red Sox have been struggling on the road dropping 15 of their last 22 away contests. Seattle is 8-5 in its last 13 games with three of those defeats coming by a single run. The pitching matchup is Eduardo Rodriguez versus Logan Gilbert. Rodriguez has a disappointing 5.15 ERA. He was racked by the Rays in his last start this past Tuesday giving up six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. Gilbert also has a high ERA. However, the Mariners are 10-5 when they've been an underdog with Gilbert on the mound. Gilbert may dodge Red Sox power-hitter J.D. Martinez, who has missed the last three games due to back spasms.
09-13-21	Cardinals -105 v. Mets		7-0	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
Maybe Adam Wainwright isn't over the hill. The 40-year-old is 15-7 with a 2.98 ERA. He's finishing the season strong, too, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three starts. Wainwright is 7-2 on the road. Mets starter Rich Hill is even older than Wainwright at 41. The southpaw is 3-4 at home with a 4.22 home ERA. The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 16 road games. They have won six straight away contests when facing a lefty starter. St. Louis is 4-1 in its last five games at the Mets. The situation isn't good for the Mets either having played the late Sunday night game against their subway rivals the Yankees.
09-10-21	Angels +1.5 v. Astros	Top	5-10	Loss	-116	20 h 46 m	Show
Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 43 homers and topps the American League with a .608 slugging percentage. He's also not bad when it comes to pitching. Ohtani is 9-1 with a 2.97 ERA. He's won his last eight decisions posting a 3.09 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings during this span. The Angels are 10-3 in Ohtani's last 13 starts. So I feel very strong in backing Ohtani especially on the road taking 1 1/2 runs with an extra at bat being the visiting team. Ohtani faced the Astros once this year - giving up one run on four hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts in seven innings back on May 11. Houston starter Framber Valdez has been solid with a 9-5 record and 3.08 ERA. The Astros' bullpen, though, hasn't been looking good lately. Valdez also has a mediocre 4.27 ERA in nine career appearances versus the Angels, including five starts. The Angels were idle Thursday. They are 5-0 the past five times following a day off.
09-09-21	Royals +105 v. Orioles		6-0	Win	105	19 h 55 m	Show
It's rare to see the Orioles a home favorite. It's even more rare to see them win in that role - or any other role. Baltimore is 2-8 the past 10 times it has been home chalk. I don't believe the Orioles should be priced higher than the Royals in a pitching matchup of Carlos Hernandez against southpaw John Means. Hernandez is flying below the radar going 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA during his last seven appearances spanning 42 1/3 innings. Means is the only decent starter in Baltimore's rotation. But he could be hitting the wall having already pitched 119 1/3 innings this season compared to 43 2/3 last year. The Royals have won 15 of the last 22 times they've faced a lefty starter. The Royals aren't going to lack motivation either after blowing a 5-0 eighth inning lead on Wednesday.
09-09-21	Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 9.5		6-4	Loss	-108	19 h 53 m	Show
It's easy to think offense when the Blue Jays and Yankees match up. Truth be told, though, the Under has cashed 12 of the last 16 times in this series. The Yankees have scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of their last 11 games. They've been held to four runs during their last three games. I don't see them doing extensive damage against Jose Berrios. Yankees starter Nestor Cortes has been one of New York's consistent pitchers with a 2.67 ERA. It's worth noting that Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 25-15 during the last two seasons when he's been behind the plate.
09-09-21	Twins v. Indians -133		1-4	Win	100	18 h 59 m	Show
The Twins have been one of the top-five teams - when it comes to burning money. I'm going to fade the Twins again at this reasonable price in a pitching matchup of Randy Dobnak versus Cal Quantrill. Dobnak is 1-7 with a 7.64 ERA. Quantrill has had a nice season for the Indians. Before suffering a bad outing against the Red Sox six days ago, Quantrill had gone 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his previous 16 starts. Minnesota is 11 games below .500 when playing on the road. The Indians usually are reliable as home chalk having won 36 of the past 51 times in that role.
09-08-21	Twins v. Indians -125	Top	3-0	Loss	-125	15 h 7 m	Show
The Twins have been one of the biggest money-burning teams in the league. They are 29-41 on the road. Aside from some power, the Twins are just average in runs and batting average. Their pitching is well below average. The Twins draw a hot Triston McKenzie, one of the Indians' top pitching prospects. McKenzie has turned his season around finding his confidence. He's given up only two runs and five hits during his last three starts spanning 21 innings. Minnesota is starting rookie Joe Ryan, who has a 5.40 ERA. This will be just his second career start. The Indians have homered at least once in 19 of their last 20 games. They also have stolen 29 straight bases.
09-07-21	Phillies v. Brewers -102	Top	0-10	Win	100	22 h 50 m	Show
It's like Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer have switched identities. The unheralded Lauer has been pitching great for the Brewers giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He's permitted just eight walks in his last seven starts. He held the Giants to one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start this past Thursday. Nola no longer is the ace of the Phillies. He's been extremely mediocre this season with a 7-7 record and 4.54 ERA. Nola has yielded 14 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings. The Phillies are six games below .500 when playing on the road. Nola's road ERA is 5.57. Milwaukee is 38-31 at home. The Brewers shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed, 12-0, by the Phillies on Labor Day.
09-06-21	Twins v. Indians +117		5-2	Loss	-100	16 h 38 m	Show
I'm not buying the Twins as a road favorite. Minnesota is 3-7 in its last 10 road contests and has been one of the biggest underachievers of the season with a 59-77 record. The Indians, by contrast, are two games above .500. So is the pitching matchup that great where Minnesota should be favored? Nope. It's rookie Bailey Ober versus Logan Allen. Ober has a 3.98 ERA. The Indians counter with Logan Allen, who is pitching his best ball. Allen has allowed just two earned runs during his past two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. Allen might avoid power-hitter Miguel Sano, who is second on the Twins in homers and RBI's. Sano is questionable with a shoulder injury.
09-06-21	Giants v. Rockies +157	Top	10-5	Loss	-100	14 h 46 m	Show
The Rockies are extremely dangerous when playing at Coors Field. This is evidenced by their 45-24 home record. They lead the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Giants are off a huge Sunday night home win against the Dodgers that concluded their three-game series. San Francisco accomplished this by beating the likely NL Cy Young Award winner, Walker Buehler. It was the first time in 12 career games the Giants defeated Buehler. It was just the Giants' third win in their last eight games. Kyle Freeland gets the start for Colorado, which is 7-3 the past 10 times it has been an underdog. Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 3.21 ERA in his last three starts. Giants starter Kevin Gausman is falling back to earth after a big season. He's given up nine earned runs in his past four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings.
09-06-21	Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5		3-6	Loss	-100	11 h 60 m	Show
A pair of underrated starters versus two below average offenses puts me on the Under. Detroit starter Tarik Skubal has given up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. He has a 3.44 day time ERA and ranks 15th in the American League in strikeouts. He faces a Pirates squad that is the lowest-scoring team in the majors. The Pirates are going with Bryse Wilson, who displayed potential when he was with the Braves. I like Wilson. He doesn't have good numbers so far - 0-3 with a 4.32 ERA in five starts with the Pirates - but I believe he can keep the Tigers in check. Detroit ranks 19th in runs scored.
09-05-21	A's +1.5 v. Blue Jays		0-8	Loss	-104	13 h 35 m	Show
Credit to Robbie Ray for a great season. But the A's are too good of a team to be this big of an underdog. I'm going to hedge, though, and lay a small price by taking Oakland on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs. If given 1 1/2 runs, the A's would be 11-5 in their last 16 games. Toronto would be 3-10 in its last 13 games if minus 1 1/2 runs. I'm not fading the lefthanded Ray here, it's all about getting value with the A's. Oakland is 39-16 in its last 55 games versus a southpaw. The A's also rank in the top four in hits and homers when playing on the road. A's starter Cole Irvin is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.
09-05-21	Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5		8-7	Win	100	13 h 45 m	Show
The Orioles have the worst record in the majors - 50 games below .500 - because aside from John Means they have terrible starting pitching and a dreadful bullpen. Baltimore trots out another one of its horrible starters, Keegan Akin, in this matchup. Akin is 2-8 with a 6.90 ERA. That ERA balloons up to 7.46 when he pitches on the road. The Yankees' offense has been on a sustained tear averaging 5 runs per game during their last 20 contests. The Orioles have respectable power and face Corey Kluber, who is rusty having missed more than three months with a right shoulder strain. This will be just his second start since returning. He gave up five runs in four innings against the Angels in his first start off the injured list. There's a slight wind, which will be blowing out to left.
09-04-21	Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5	Top	4-11	Win	100	14 h 53 m	Show
Considering the pitchers and offensive strengths of these two teams, I would have put this total at double-digits. It's at least one run short in my view. Only five teams have hit more homers than the Twins. No team is averaging more runs per game than the Rays. Tampa Bay has scored 5 or more runs in 13 of its last 17 games. The Twins go against Chris Archer, who has thrown just six innings since April 10 as he works his way back into shape after being out four months with right forearm tightness. Archer hasn't been effective for the past six years. So I'm not expecting much. Nor am I expecting anything from Twins starter, 35-year-old Andrew Alberts. He has made just two starts since 2017.
09-03-21	Braves v. Rockies +129	Top	3-4	Win	129	19 h 40 m	Show
It's a mistake to go against the Rockies at home especially with a young unproven pitcher. Colorado leads the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Rockies are 43-23 - 20 games above .500 - when playing at Coors Field. Braves righty Huascar Ynoa has thrown fewer than 87 big league innings. He has a 3.71 road ERA compared to a 2.29 home ERA. Colorado is 21-6 in its last 27 home games versus a righty starter. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is that rare pitcher who pitches better at Coors Field. He has a 3.89 home ERA and a 4.56 road ERA. Senzatela is pitching the best stretch of his career with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the mighty Dodgers on two hits and a walk in seven innings during a 5-0 victory this past Sunday. Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is questionable for the Braves with a knee injury that caused him to miss Thursday's game.
09-01-21	Astros -125 v. Mariners	Top	0-1	Loss	-125	5 h 57 m	Show
I like the superior Astros to bounce back today after losing, 4-0, to Seattle Tuesday night. The Astros rank in the top two in runs and batting average. The Mariners are 30th in batting average and 22nd in runs. Houston starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching better, holding three of his last four opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He just beat the Mariners, 15-1, on Aug. 21 giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings. Rookie Logan Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA for Seattle. He's been rocked for a 13.50 ERA during his last three starts.
08-31-21	Braves v. Dodgers -177		2-3	Win	100	13 h 10 m	Show
It's a decent-size price against a respectable opponent, but it's still worth laying with Walker Buehler on the mound. Buehler is your probable Cy Young Award winner in the National League. He's 13-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 26 starts. He's been absolutely magnificent this month with a 1.35 ERA in five August starts. Buehler has given up two earned runs or fewer in his last nine starts. The Braves are familiar with Buehler. He beat them twice in the NLCS last year, giving up one run in 11 innings. Charlie Morton can't compete against those standards. Morton is 12-5 with a 3.60 ERA. He was touched for four runs in five innings against the Yankees during his previous start. The Dodgers have stepped up their game, too, going 14-3 in their last 17 games.
08-31-21	Astros v. Mariners OVER 8		0-4	Loss	-100	13 h 7 m	Show
I find this total short considering the Astros are involved. Houston leads the majors in batting average while ranking second in runs scored. The Astros draw Yusei Kikuchi. They just saw him 11 days ago and got to Kikuchi for seven runs in 2 2/3 innings, smashing three homers off him in a 12-3 victory. The Mariners have scored 4 or more runs in six of their last eight games. They face Lance McCullers, who has a 3.93 ERA in his last four games. The Over has cashed during six of the past seven meetings in this series.
08-30-21	Rockies v. Rangers OVER 8.5		3-4	Loss	-105	19 h 45 m	Show
I can easily envision double-digits being produced in this game. The Rockies usually hit much better at home, but they are averaging six runs per game during their last four road games. Nobody has driven in more runs this month than Colorado's C.J. Cron, who has 33. Texas is scoring runs, too, averaging 6.2 in its last four games. The Rangers just smashed the Astros, 13-2, Sunday. This was against Zack Grienke, too. Rockies starter German Marquez is that rare pitcher who pitches better at Coors Field than on the road where his away ERA is 5.31. The rebuilding Rangers are dealing with a COVID crunch and auditioning starters. The latest to try is A.J. Alexy, who will be making his big league debut. I doubt Alexy is ready to pitch at the major league level yet.
08-30-21	Twins v. Tigers +112	Top	3-2	Loss	-100	15 h 60 m	Show
The game may be meaningless. But the price isn't. I don't understand the Twins opening a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Casey Mize. Before getting to that, though, consider the situation and Minnesota's road record. The Twins are 25-39 away from home. Detroit has a winning home record and is a respectable 14-14 in its last 28 games. Minnesota is the fourth-biggest money loser this season for bettors. The Twins have dropped five of their last six road contests and are 0-4 during their past four games at Comerica Park. Now the situation. Minnesota just hosted the Brewers for three games this past weekend. The Twins have to shoot off to Detroit for this lone game and then return home to host the Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday. That's an unusual occurrence caused by a July 16 rainout. This is the makeup game from that date. So I question how caring and focused the Twins will be. Ober and Mize are young pitchers. Mize has the higher ceiling being one of the top prospects in baseball. He's 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA. Ober's ERA in day games is 4.43. I like Mize much better. So I don't get why Minnesota opened the favorite here?
08-29-21	Reds -1.5 v. Marlins		1-2	Loss	-105	4 h 58 m	Show
The Marlins are force-feeding high-end pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo. It hasn't been going well. Luzardo, acquired a month ago from the A's, has a 9.67 ERA in five starts with the Marlins. He is averaging nearly 20 baserunners per nine innings during those starts. Reds starter Tyler Mahle is having a breakthrough season at 27 thanks to an improved slider. He's been especially effective on the road with a 1.84 ERA. The Reds are 5-1 versus the Marlins this season going hard for a playoff berth.
08-28-21	Padres -118 v. Angels		2-10	Loss	-118	9 h 30 m	Show
The buy sign is on the Padres after San Diego shut out the Angels, 5-0, Friday. That halted the Padres' four-game losing streak and restored confidence. The Angels are 1-6 in their last seven games with that lone win occurring against the Orioles. The pitching matchup is Ryan Weathers versus Suarez. I'm not a fan of Weathers, but Suarez isn't imposing either with a 6.21 ERA during his last six starts. The Padres have a far superior lineup with the Angels missing Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.
08-27-21	Brewers -125 v. Twins		0-2	Loss	-125	20 h 24 m	Show
This is one of the rare times where there is more value on the favorite than the underdog. Milwaukee is 28 games above and is 42-21 on the road. Minnesota is 17 games below .500. The Twins are 1-5 in their last six games, surrendering an average of 8.8 runs during this span. Brewers starter Eric Lauer is a bottom-of-the-rotation type, who doesn't get much respect. But look at who the Twins are pitching, Andrew Albers. He's a 35-year-old journeyman who had been out of the majors for the past four years until resurfacing this year. Lauer is good for 4-to-6 innings. He's given up one or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. He's a good fit for the Brewers because their bullpen is strong and deep. Milwaukee has its top bullpen arms rested, too. Albers will be making only his second appearance of the season and first start.
08-26-21	Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7.5	Top	5-7	Win	100	20 h 48 m	Show
I see this total as being at least one run too low. The Nationals average 4.5 runs on the road. They are averaging 5.7 runs during their last eight games. The Marlins average more than four runs per game at home. The pitching matchup is lefty Patrick Corbin versus righty Elieser Hernandez. Corbin has mostly been terrible this year. He's 7-12 with a 5.82 ERA. He's given up four or more earned runs in four of his past seven starts. Hernandez, who has a 4.15 ERA, will be making just his fifth appearance of the season. He last started six days ago against the Reds and was tagged for five runs, four of which were earned, in 4 2/3 innings. Hernandez gave up two homers during that game. The Nationals have the second-highest batting average against righthanders in the National League. Note, too, that Joe West is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has won 59 percent of the time West has been behind the plate the past two years spanning 34 games.
08-25-21	Dodgers -136 v. Padres	Top	5-3	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
Blake Snell has a solid history against the Dodgers. But he's trumped by Walker Buehler, who I consider the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom injured. Buehler hasn't yielded more than two runs during any of his last eight starts. Lifetime against the Padres, he's 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA. The Padres aren't playing well, losers of 10 of their past 12 games. The Dodgers, by contrast, have won 10 of their last 11 games.
08-25-21	Tigers +127 v. Cardinals		2-3	Loss	-100	5 h 43 m	Show
Now that he's harnessed his control, Tarik Skubal has become a dangerous pitcher. He's also underrated. Skubal is 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span is 17-to-2. The last time Skubal walked more than one batter in a game was two months ago. The Tigers are improved and the Cardinals have been disappointing. St. Louis is 2-5 in its last seven games and starting washed-up Jon Lester. The lefty has a 7.08 ERA in four starts with the Cardinals and is 3-6 lifetime versus Detroit with a 5.40 ERA in 13 career starts. Detroit is 6-2 in its last eight games against southpaw starters.

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