George Kirby is a nice young pitcher for Seattle. But he's trumped by Gerrit Cole. The price is right to back Cole and the Yankees at home.

The price on the Yankees is so low because New York just got swept by the Red Sox in Boston. That was the Yankees' fourth straight loss.

But following yesterday's off-day, look for the Yankees to be up for this game with their ace, Cole, on the mound.

Cole has held foes to two runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts. He is 6-3 lifetime against Seattle with a 2.25 ERA in 11 career starts.

The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the league at 2.96 and is rested.

The Mariners are playing their first road game in nine days. They have lost 10 of their past 13 away games. The Mariners also have a dismal history at Yankee Stadium losing in 12 of their last 16 games there.

If you discount a 2-0 shutout loss to the Twins three games ago, the Tigers are averaging 6.6 runs in their last eight games. They get to face Daniel Lynch.

Lynch is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA. He has a 5.22 ERA in six career starts against Detroit. Kansas City has the third-highest bullpen ERA in the majors.

So I see the Tigers doing their share to push this total Over.

As for the Royals, they draw a cold Michael Lorenzen, who is 2-4 with a 4.23 ERA. Lorenzen has given up 12 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings.

The Reds are sizzling. They have won eight in a row and 11 of their last 13.

The Reds are getting tremendous production and emotion from younger players, including rookies Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer.

Colorado has the second-worst record in the National League. They are 13-26 away from Coors Field.

I don't see Austin Gomber slowing down the Reds. He has a 7.29 ERA and shouldn't even be in a big league rotation.

The Reds are going with rookie Brandon Williamson. He faced the Rockies on May 16 and held them to one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings during a 3-1 victory.

The Marlins are playing well. They are 16-5 in their last 21 games. That's pushed them up to a season-best 10 games above .500.

Now the Marlins return to Miami where they have won 11 of the last 13 times. They draw the disappointing Blue Jays, who are 3-6 in their last nine games. Toronto is off a demoralizing Sunday loss to the Rangers in which they blew a six-run lead.

This will be Toronto's seventh straight road game. The Blue Jays will be starting righthander Jose Berrios, who is pitching much better lately. Berrios, however, has been more effective when pitching at home where his ERA is 2.37 compared to 3.79 on the road. The Blue Jays also are likely to be minus injured catcher Alejandro Kirk.

The Marlins are 14-3 (82 percent) during their last 17 interleague games when facing a righty starter.

Bryan Hoeing is set to make his third start of the year for Miami. He has a 1.54 home ERA. Hoeing will be backed by setup man Tanner Scott and closer A.J. Puk, both of whom were rested on Sunday.

I want the Dodgers and Tony Gonsolin going for me after they were embarrassed at home, 15-0, by the Giants on Saturday.

The Dodgers are a remarkable 13-0 at home after being shut out the previous game.

Gonsolin is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He's been dominant at Dodger Stadium with a 3-0 mark and 1.66 ERA.

"...he's as good as anyone,'' Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said about Gonsolin when Gonsolin is healthy.

The Dodgers are 22-13 at home.

This total is too high given the starting pitching of aces Logan Webb versus Tony Gonsolin.

Webb has a 3.15 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the season. His ERA shrinks to 2.75 during day games. Webb also is unbeaten in five career starts at Dodger Stadium where he's 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA. The Dodgers are batting only .224 during day games and could be resting key bats.

The Giants have a rested bullpen, too.

Gonsolin has a 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP on the year. He's been absolutely dominant at Dodger Stadium with a 1.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season.

San Francisco has several key bats out due to injuries - Wilmer Flores and Mitch Haniger.

Note, too, the home plate umpire is slated to be David Rackley. The Under has cashed 59 percent of the time during the 41 times he's been behind the plate the past two seasons.

This is more than a fair price to back Jon Gray and the Rangers, who are 23-13 at home. The Rangers have hit the second most home runs at home.

Texas is 6-1 in Gray's past seven starts. During this span, Gray has a 0.84 ERA.

Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has a 14.59 day time ERA. He got shelled in his last start.

Come on down because the price is right to back the Guardians and their ace pitcher, Shane Bieber.

Bieber is back to his elite ways, giving up only one run on eight hits during his last two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. He shut out the Astros for seven innings during his last start this past Sunday in a 5-0 victory. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 the past four times they've faced a righty starter at home.

The Guardians get to face southpaw Tommy Henry, who has a 4.86 ERA. Unlike Bieber, Henry is not in good form. Henry has surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits and four walks during his last two starts spanning nine innings. The Guardians are 7-1 in their last eight games against a lefty starter.

Cleveland also carries a huge bullpen edge ranking No. 2 in relief pitching ERA at 3.04 compared to Arizona, which is 17th at 4.09.

Since losing Aaron Judge to a toe injury nine games ago, the Yankees are averaging a pedestrian 3.4 runs per game. Boston has scored four runs or fewer in nine of its last 12 games.

I don't see these teams reaching double-digits in a pitching matchup of Domingo German versus Tanner Houck.

German just faced the Red Sox this past Saturday, holding them to one run in six innings. German has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven appearances.

Houck has a strong history when going against the Yankees with a 2.41 ERA in 33 2/3 career innings.

The Padres can take their place among the baseball underachievers this season. San Diego is below .500 on the year and below .500 at home. 

San Diego is off a 5-0 Wednesday home victory against Cleveland thanks to seven shutout innings from Michael Wacha, who has been the hottest pitcher since the start of May with a 0.91 ERA.

But now the Padres drop down from Wacha to Ryan Weathers. Cleveland is pitching promising rookie Logan Allen.

The Padres are 2-7 the past nine times at home following a home win. 

Allen is 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA. He has 51 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings. Allen has been at his finest on the road with a 2-1 record and 1.90 ERA. Allen is backed by a Cleveland bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors behind only the Yankees. 

Weathers, in his third big league season, will be making his 20th career start. His ERA's are 5.32, 9.82 and 4.93 this season. Weathers is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA when pitching at home this year. 

Scoring runs is the issue with the Guardians. They rank in the bottom-three in runs, OPS and homers. The Padres, however, rate 28th in batting average and 22nd in runs. 

Cleveland was averaging six runs per game during its last seven games before running into a hot Wacha last night.

Kudos to the Phillies for halting the Diamondbacks' six-game win streak on Tuesday.

But I see Arizona starting a new win streak today pitching Merrill Kelly against Ranger Suarez.

The Diamondbacks are one of the hottest teams in baseball - and they have been all season tied for the third-best record in the league.

Arizona is 7-1 in Kelly's last eight starts. Kelly is 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season.

Suarez has started to pitch better, but he's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter not in Kelly's class. Suarez has a 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. The Diamondbacks faced Suarez last month and got to him for five runs in five innings. Suarez has a 6.35 ERA in 28 1/3 career innings versus Arizona.

The Diamondbacks rank in the top-five in runs, batting average and OPS. They have scored at least five runs in seven of their past eight games.

Even with their Tuesday victory, the Phillies are just 14-23 on the road. They are 4-13 during their last 17 games at Arizona.

Lance Lynn is nothing but an innings-eater at this stage of his career - and a bad one at that. He has a 6.72 ERA and has allowed 13 runs on 16 hits during his last two starts spanning nine innings. The Dodgers have hit the most homers in the majors and are No. 3 in runs. They should feast on Lynn.

Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has produced good numbers, but based on balls in play and other metrics he's due for a bad outing. The Dodgers' bullpen has been a major disappointment ranking 28th in ERA at 4.76.

The White Sox bullpen hasn't been much better ranking 27th with a 4.75 ERA.

So I'm expecting double-digit runs to be produced in this matchup.

Idle on Monday, the Brewers have to be anxious to get back to playing after becoming the first team swept by the A's this season.

I like the Brewers' chances here - and the underdog price - with Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burns has started to resemble his previous Cy Young Award form during his past three starts with a 1.71 ERA. The Brewers have an elite closer, too, in Devin Williams. So it's nice to know that the Brewers should be getting at least eight quality pitched innings.

Burnes has a 2.45 ERA in 18 1/3 lifetime innings against the Twins with 29 strikeouts.

Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez has pitched poorly in three of his last five starts. He has a 5.40 ERA during his past three outings.

The Twins have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games.

Sparked by exciting rookie Elly De La Cruz, the Reds are producing runs. If you discount being shut out by Clayton Kershaw, Cincinnati is averaging 6.6 runs in its last five games. 

De La Cruz is one of the top prospects in baseball. He hasn't disappointed. Since being called up six games ago, De La Cruz is batting .364, has five walks, three stolen bases, a .481 on-base percentage and a 1.117 OPS. He has three extra base hits and four RBI's. 

Only eight teams are averaging more runs per game than the Reds. 

This isn't good news for Zack Grienke, who is 1-6 with a 4.59 ERA. Greinke hasn't been good since 2019. He's merely an innings-eater now collecting a paycheck. Greinke can expect little help from a relief corps that has the second-worst bullpen ERA in back of only the A's at 5.01. 

The Royals have been in a scoring slump. But they should produce their share of runs facing Luke Weaver, who has been plagued by serious arm problems that have rendered him ineffective the past four years. Weaver has a 6.27 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He's allowed at least four earned runs in six of his nine starts, averaging five innings per outing. 

I can't back the Red Sox at this monster of a lay price when they are pitching James Paxton. But I will say Boston might cover the total just by itself.

That's because the Red Sox draw Connor Seabold and a tired Colorado bullpen that lacks a closer. The Rockies rank 23rd in bullpen ERA at 4.53.
Seabold can take his place among the worst starters in baseball. He has a 5.10 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. It's not just pitching at Coors Field either. Seabold's road ERA is 5.40.

The Red Sox know Seabold well. He was with Boston last season where he had an 11.29 ERA in five starts. The Red Sox rank No. 2 in batting average and OPS when playing at home. They are fourth in home slugging percentage, too. 

I do expect Colorado to chip in to get this total Over. The Rockies have been consistent lately scoring at least four runs in eight of their last 10 games. They are going against James Paxton and a tired Boston bullpen. 

Paxton once was a promising pitcher. Serious injuries have derailed his career. He didn't pitch at all last season. Paxton hadn't been good the two previous seasons in very limited action with ERA's well above 6.00. Paxton has a 3.81 ERA this season. 

The Red Sox's offense has cooled. The Yankees aren't nearly as dangerous minus Aaron Judge. The starting pitchers, Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt, are in good, below-the-radar form.

So I don't see double-digit runs being produced here.

Boston is averaging only 2.3 runs during its last eight games. The Yankees lost Aaron Judge to a toe injury six games ago. Since then, they are averaging 3.1 runs per game.

Bello has a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts. His night ERA is 2.67.

Schmidt has been even better posting a 2.16 ERA in his last three starts. He's backed by the best bullpen in the majors as Yankees relief pitchers have the lowest ERA at 2.78. Yankees manager Aaron Boone won't hesitate to use his stud relievers as the team is idle on Monday.

The Diamondbacks have four in a row - all by at least four runs - in going a season-best 14 games above .500. The Tigers have lost eight in a row, averaging a measly 2.1 runs per game during this losing skid.

The pitching matchup is Zac Gallen versus lefty Joey Wentz. Gallen is at least a "B'' tier pitcher. He's 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.35 during day games. Wentz is one of the worst starters in baseball with a 1-6 record, 7.49 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. What he's still doing in the Tigers' starting rotation remains a mystery to me.

The Diamondbacks rank in the top-10 in batting average and slugging percentage against southpaw pitching.

So I'm going to lower the heavy juice by backing the Diamondbacks on the run line in the belief they win this game by more than one run.

Update: The Tigers are going to open with 28-year-old Will Vest as an opener. He hasn't recorded more than six outs in any of his 20 appearances. Vest is likely to go just one or two innings followed by Wentz. So my handicap and play has not changed. However, you may have to re-bet the game if you listed pitchers.

After a 10-9 Guardians' win against the Astros Friday night, I expect a more normal scoring game today.

The Astros are going with J.P. France, who has a respectable 3.44 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Cleveland is starting Triston McKenzie in his second appearance of the season. McKenzie struck out 10 in five scoreless innings against the Twins this past Sunday in his season debut.

So the starting pitching should be strong. The bullpen, too. The Guardians rank No. 2 in bullpen ERA, while the Astros are fourth in bullpen ERA.

Despite scoring 10 runs last night, the Guardians are a way below-average offensive team. They rank last in homers, 28th in OPS and 27th in runs.

The Under is 35-15-2 in the Guardians' last 52 games.

The Astros have scored two or fewer runs in four of their last six games. They are minus their best power hitter, Yordan Alvarez, who leads the majors in RBI's. He's on the injured list due to an oblique injury.

The weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing in at 8-to-10 mph.

I once thought Julio Teheran would produce great pitching numbers. I just didn't think it would take 12 years and would happen with the Brewers after he had been out of major league baseball for more than a year.

Teheran signed with Milwaukee on May 25. This will be his fourth start with the Brewers. He has a 1.56 ERA in 17 1/3 innings.

I like the Brewers to beat the A's by multiple runs today after the A's upset them, 5-2, on Friday in the opener of their three-game series. The A's are the worst team in baseball with the worst road record at 8-26.

Milwaukee should be able to put up plenty of runs against Paul Blackburn, a below average righty, with a 6.00 ERA and an A's bullpen that has a 6.01 ERA. The next closest team to the A's with a bullpen that bad is the Nationals with a 4.86 bullpen ERA.

The Brewers have a top-notch closer in Devin Williams.

Southpaw Jordan Montgomery gets the start for St. Louis. The Cardinals are 0-10 in Montgomery's last 10 starts. The Reds faced Montgomery on May 22. They got to him for four runs on seven hits and three walks in four innings. The Reds have the seventh-highest batting average against left-handed pitching.

Cincinnati starter Ben Lively is below-the-radar. He has a 3.03 ERA. He faced the Cardinals on May 24 and gave up two runs on five hits in six innings while striking out eight and walking two.

The Reds should enter this series with confidence having just taken two of three from the Dodgers.

The Cardinals have yet to get turned around. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. St. Louis is averaging 2.5 runs in its last five games.

I never mind playing an Over at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia when the occasion calls for it.

This is one of those occasions.

The Dodgers have scored six or more runs in nine of their last 11 games. They rank No. 2 in the majors in homers and No. 3 in runs.

Philadelphia is starting southpaw Ranger Suarez, who has a 5.47 ERA. The Dodgers have the third-highest slugging percentage versus southpaws and are fourth in OPS against them. The Phillies' bullpen is mediocre at best.

The Phillies should do plenty of damage, too. They get to face rookie Michael Grove, who has an 8.14 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The Dodgers' bullpen is on fumes and has the fourth-highest ERA in the majors.

The Dodgers have lost three in a row and are starting Noah Syndergaard. So I don't believe they should be favored in this price range.

Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, have robbed Syndergaard of his once feared fastball and effectiveness. He has a 6.54 ERA. He's made 11 starts and won only once. Syndergaard has allowed multiple runs in nine consecutive starts when pitching more than one inning.

"I would give away my hypothetical first-born to be the old me again,'' Syndergaard has lamented.

The Reds are going with rookie Brandon Williamson, who will be making his fourth big league start. He held the Brewers to three runs - two of which were earned - on five hits in 6 2/3 innings during his last start five days ago.

This is an exciting time for the Reds with the call-up of infielder Elly De La Cruz, their No. 1 prospect and one of the best in baseball.

This is an action play for me based on the Cubs' cold bats and poor road record.

If you discount a 7-1 win against the Padres two games ago, the Cubs have scored eight runs in their last six games.

Chicago has lost 15 of its last 20 road games.

The Angels own a winning home mark. They are facing righthander Hayden Wesneski, who has a 4.81 ERA. The Angels are 16-7 the last 23 times at home when going against a righty starter.

I don't like Angels starter Tyler Anderson. But he should be able to hold his own at home against a cold Cubs lineup.

Bad starting pitchers, bad bullpens. Throw in the wind blowing out to right at 8-to-10 mph and you have the winning formula for an Over in this Diamondbacks-Nationals matchup.

Arizona's Tommy Henry faces Nationals righthander Jake Irvin.

Henry has a 5.74 road ERA. Irvin has a 7.47 home ERA. The Diamondbacks are in the top-eight against righty pitchers. They've scored at least five runs in five of their last seven games.

Washington has a bottom-five bullpen with a 4.73 ERA. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom 10 in relief pitching ERA.

How good have the surprising Texas Rangers been this season? Try 38-20 with an MLB-best plus 152 run differential.

The Rangers have won 12 of their last 15 games. They have Martin Perez starting for them against Adam Wainwright and a slumping, underachieving Cardinals team that is 10 games below .500 and has dropped five of their last six games.

Perez has been brilliant at home with a 3-0 record and 1.93 ERA. He's also been great during interleague competition with a lifetime 1.59 ERA in nine starts. St. Louis is averaging 2.4 runs in its last 10 games.

Wainwright is showing his 41 years. He has a 6.15 ERA, which balloons up to 7.59 when pitching on the road. He faces a Texas lineup that leads the majors in runs and batting average while ranking No. 2 in OPS.

This is a huge mismatch not fully reflected in this low lay price.

The A's rank last in runs, batting average and OPS. They have scored two or fewer runs in 13 of their last 16 games. So my first look to the A's always is to the Under. An Under should work here.

The Pirates have a below average offense. They have scored four or fewer runs in 10 of their last 14 games.

The pitching matchup is JP Sears versus Johan Oviedo. Both of these starters are below-the-radar with their current form.

Sears has given up two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. Oviedo has allowed one run during three of his past four starts.

The Giants are playing well winning 12 of their last 18 games. The price is right to back them at home against Baltimore.

Tyler Wells gets the start for the Orioles. He hasn't been in good form with a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts.

The Giants are starting Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 2.90 day time ERA. The Giants' bullpen has the second-best ERA in baseball during the last 30 days.

The Orioles have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. They aren't likely to have good-looking rookie third baseman Gunnar Henderson. He has a back injury.

There are many reasons why the A's are a laughing stock this season. Lack of offense certainly is one factor. Oakland ranks last in runs, batting average and OPS.

The A's were blanked, 4-0, by Miami's Edward Cabrera on Friday. Now Oakland draws another excellent Marlins pitching prospect in 6-foot-8 righthander Eury Perez, who has a 2.84 ERA in four starts while averaging a strikeout per inning. He faces an Oakland lineup that is averaging a puny two runs in its last 15 games.

The A's have terrible pitching, but Luis Medina has been semi-respectable giving up three earned runs in three of his last four starts while averaging nearly six innings during this span. Those starts have come against better offensive teams than the Marlins in the Astros, Mariners, Diamondbacks and Rangers. The Marlins have scored the third-fewest runs in the majors.

The kicker is Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire. He's a top Under ump. The Under is 47-34 (58 percent) the past four years Eddings has been behind the plate.

I don't like to go against the Astros. But I'll do it when I can get a plus price on Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani is having another MVP-caliber season. He's 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA. He leads the majors in opponent batting average at .155, ranks No. 2 in WHIP at 0.95 and has the fourth-most strikeouts.

The Angels are in a frustrating, mad mood after losing to the Astros, 5-2, yesterday. They stranded 13 runners and got hosed by the umpires on certain calls.

Lefty Framber Valdez will be on the hill for Houston. He's good, but his statistics are padded because of his last three starts. Those starts came against the A's twice and Cubs. The Angels rank in the top-seven against southpaws in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

Don't look at the season ERA's of these two starting pitchers. Just know that Hunter Greene and Chris Sale are in excellent current form.

Greene didn't allow a hit in six innings against the Cubs during his last start this past Friday. Greene is one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball with 80 K's in 56 innings. Greene will have closer Alexis Diaz available after Diaz was held out of Wednesday night's game.

Sale has given up just eight earned runs in his last five starts spanning 32 1/3 innings. He's allowed only three runs during his last three home starts spanning 20 1/3 innings.

Discount a one-run game against St. Louis and the Reds are averaging 7.8 runs in their last seven games.

I'm expecting another strong offensive performance from Cincinnati facing lefty James Paxton at hitter-friendly Fenway Park with the wind blowing out to left at 8-to-10 mph.

Paxton entered this season having pitched only once in two years. He's on the comeback trail and struggling with a 5.14 ERA. The Reds have the sixth-highest batting average against lefties.

The Red Sox should feast on Luke Weaver, who has yet to regain his earlier promise due to arm injuries. Weaver has a 5.45 ERA. The Red Sox rank in the top-five in runs, batting average and OPS. They got their bats going last night scoring eight runs during the final three innings.

Can the Cubs actually sweep the Rays? Nope. Tampa Bay hasn't been swept in a series all season and I don't see it happening here in a pitching matchup of Zack Eflin versus lefty Justin Steele.

Tampa Bay is 8-1 in games started by Eflin, who is pitching his best ball. Steele started well, but is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts. The Rays have won eight of 11 games versus lefties this season.

The Rays are the best offensive team in baseball. The Cubs are averaging 2.1 runs during their last six games.

The A's were 0-21 this season as an underdog plus $1.95 or higher - until Monday. The A's ended that streak and halted their 11-game losing skid with a 7-2 home victory against the Braves.

Can the A's now defeat the Braves for a second straight day? Heck no.

The Braves are going with Bryce Elder, who has become their ace with a 3-0 record and 2.01 ERA, third-best in baseball. The A's rank second-from-the-bottom in runs, batting average and OPS. 

The A's are starting JP Sears. He has a 4.70 ERA, but has been pitching better recently. However, Sears is a lefty. 

Atlanta is 10-4 versus lefty starters. They lead the league in batting average against southpaws at .312 and also rank first in on-base percentage and second in slugging percentage against lefties. Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy each have an OPS above 1.000 against lefthanders. 

Given the starting pitching matchup and both teams having below average bullpens, I can see the Phillies and Mets each producing at least four runs apiece.

The Phillies have reached at least four runs in four of their last five games. The Mets are averaging eight runs in their last four games. 

Both starters, lefty Ranger Suarez and Kodai Senga, put up a lot of baserunners. Suarez not only has a 9.82 ERA, but a 2.00 WHIP. The wind is blowing out to left field  at 7-8 mph, which isn't going to aid Suarez. 

Senga has a 3.94 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The Phillies are above average in batting average and OPS. 

The Braves rank fourth in runs and third in homers. They should tee off a historically-bad A's pitching staff. The Braves are 24-9-1 to the Over in their last 34 interleague games.

The A's have the worst bullpen by far with a 6.50 ERA. Not good news for Paul Blackburn, who will be making his first start since last August.

The A's, though, should be able to contribute to this Over going against Mike Soroka, who hasn't pitched in three years after tearing his Achilles tendon.

There's a lot of randomness here in a pitching matchup of Karl Kauffman against Arizona's Ryne Nelson. Neither of these starters is very good. Yet the Diamondbacks are nearly a 2-to-1 favorite. So I'll take a shot on the Rockies, who are 5-2 in their last seven games, and cushion it by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line.

Kauffman is 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA. He does have the element of surprise as the Diamondbacks have never faced him. The righthanded Nelson is 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA. The Rockies faced him on April 30 and got to him for six runs on nine hits in four innings. Colorado won that contest, 12-4.

The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a righty starter. They are averaging six runs during their past seven games.

Spencer Strider ws outstanding as a rookie last season and he's tough again this season with a 4-2 record and 2.97 ERA. Oh, yes, Strider also leads the majors in strikeouts with 97.

Strider has dominated the Phillies with a 4-0 lifetime mark with a 1.27 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings.

The Phillies have dropped 13 of their last 19 games to the Braves in Atlanta.

Philadelphia has been held to three runs or fewer in eight of their last 13 games.

I don't see Dylan Covey, making his first start with the Phillies, and a below average Phillies bullpen being able to keep this game close.

There have been at least nine runs scored in each of the first three games of this series with all three games going Over. I see that streak snapping here in a pitching matchup of Dylan Cease against Eduardo Rodriguez.

Cease is back on track after a slow start. He's 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts. Cease was 2-1 versus Detroit last year with a 0.82 ERA. Lifetime against the Tigers, Cease has been dominant with a 10-1 record and 1.72 ERA in 13 starts.

The lefthanded Rodriguez is 4-4 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He's 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA at home. Unlike the previous two seasons, the White Sox have just been average hitting against lefties.

A couple of other factors that help the Under cause is the wind blowing in at 6-to-7 mph and that managers often use Sunday to rest some of their regular hitters.

I'm surprised the Giants aren't laying a price. They should be given how these teams have been playing.

San Francisco is playing its best ball, winners of nine of its last 11 games. Milwaukee is 3-6 in its last nine games.

The Giants have dominated the first two games of this series, outscoring the Brewers, 20-1.

The Brewers are without their catalyst now as shortstop Willy Adames will go on the injured list after being struck on the side of the head by a foul ball while inside the dugout during the Giants' 15-1 Friday victory. It was extremely unnerving for the Brewers to see that injury.

I give the Giants the pitching edge, too, in this matchup of Logan Webb versus Corbin Burnes. Webb has a 2.91 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Burnes is enduring a down season so far by his lofty status with a 3.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Milwaukee has a losing record in Burnes' starts this season.

Patrick Corbin may have been the worst starting pitcher in the majors last season. This season that dishonor can be bestowed on Jordan Lyles.

The two are scheduled to tangle on Friday. Lyles is favored for the first time this season in 11 starts.

Mark me down for Corbin and the underdog Nationals.

Not only are the Royals 0-10 in Lyles' 10 starts, but all but one of those defeats have come by more than one run. Lyles has permitted four or more runs in nine consecutive games. He has a 7.15 ERA. He's surrendered 14 homers, most in the league. Lyles can't expect to be bailed out by a Kansas City bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA.

The Nationals are going to put the ball in play. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the league and the fourth-highest batting average. Washington is averaging 5.2 runs during its past 10 games.

Corbin has bounced back from being a laughingstock to gaining some of the respectability he had five years ago. Corbin has a 2.88 ERA in four starts this month going at least six innings in each outing with a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Corbin encounters a Royals team averaging just 2.7 runs in their last nine games. Kansas City ranks in the bottom-five in runs batting average and OPS.

I see these two powerful offenses producing double-digit runs in this matchup given the pitching matchup.

The Dodgers rank third in runs and homers. The Rays are going with Jalen Beeks as their opener. Cooper Criswell is likely to pitch a few innings, too, for Tampa Bay. Neither is very good. Beeks has a 4.68 ERA. Criswell's ERA is 7.94.

The Rays are either first or second in all the major offensive categories. They draw Noah Syndergaard. Injuries have robbed Syndergaard of his fastball. He just tries to get by on guile now and can only be regarded as a lower-tier starter.

Syndergaard has a 5.88 ERA and the Rays should be able to steal multiple bases on him because of his slow windup. Tampa Bay leads the majors in steals.

The White Sox have won their last three series. I expect them to even this series up at 1-1. 

Lance Lynn goes for Chicago. Lynn struggled out of the gate, but he's gotten things turned around. Lynn has allowed three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. He is 7-3 career-wise versus Detroit with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. 

The White Sox should score often against overmatched Joey Wentz, who is 1-4 with a 7.45 ERA. Wentz probably shouldn't even be in a big league rotation. However, the Tigers are forced to keep using him being down injured starters Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, Spencer Turnbull and Beau Brieske. 

There have been 26 runs scored in the first two games of this Orioles-Yankees series with both games easily sailing Over the total. I don't see anything changing in today's finale of the series. Not with the way these teams are swinging the bats and given the pitching matchup.

Edwin Moscoso being the home plate umpire is another huge plus for the Over.

Baltimore is averaging six runs per game during its last nine games. The Orioles rank fifth in runs scored. They draw Clarke Schmidt, who has made just 15 big league starts and has a 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP this season.

The Yankees have hit the fourth most homers in the league. If you discount a 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays, the Yankees have averaged 6.5 runs in their last 16 games. New York ranks in the top-five during the last two weeks in runs, RBI's and slugging percentage along with smacking the most homers during this span.

Kyle Gibson, the definition of mediocre, gets the start for Baltimore. He has a 4.27 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Both bullpens are elite, but carry a high fatigue rating.

Home plate umpire Moscoso has been in the league four years. He's an established Over umpire with a 57-35 (62 percent) mark to the high side, including 7-2 to the Over this season.

I find this total to be too high in a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus Bryce Elder.

Gonsolin is 2-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Gonsolin hasn't been scored on during his last 17 innings. The Braves have scored 3 or fewer runs in three of their last four games. Gonsolin has held the Braves to two runs in 15 career innings.

Elder is 3-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Elder an edge in surprise.

This is an easy handicap. The Blue Jays are 1-7 in their last eight games and have lost five in a row. Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball. 

The Rays are throwing their top pitching prospect, Taj Bradley. He's looked good in his four big league starts this season with a 3.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Bradley has 27 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings.

The Blue Jays are pitching Jose Berrios, who is a fade on the road where he's 1-3 with a 6.67 ERA. Berrios is 2-4 career-wise versus the Rays with a 5.44 ERA. 

Remember that 20-9 start by the Pirates? Yeah, I don't either anymore. Pittsburgh has reverted back to its losing ways going 4-13 in its last 17 games.

I don't see the Pirates getting back to winning either taking on the much improved Rangers.

Texas is 29-17. That's tied for the third-best winning percentage in baseball. The Rangers have a plus 108 run difference, which is the second-best mark. They rank No. 1 in runs and batting average and are second in OPS. They also have a hot Corey Seager back after he missed 31 games with a strained hamstring.

This isn't pleasant news for Luis Oritz, who gets the start for Pittsburgh. He's 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA and a hideous 2.38 WHIP.

The Rangers are going with Dane Dunning, who is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The Pirates have scored three or fewer runs in 15 of their last 18 games.

Happy Corey Kluber day. Kluber is replacing Patrick Corbin, who actually has been pitching decently, as a former ace who has become terrible.

The 37-year-old Kluber has a 6.41 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. I'm not going to fade the Red Sox against the disappointing Padres, but Over is a way to get involved in going against Kluber. 

The Padres are way overdue to get clutch hits to bring in base runners. They are batting below .200 with men in scoring position. 

The Red Sox are familiar with San Diego starter Michael Wacha, who pitched for Boston last season. The Red Sox rank in the top three in runs, batting average and OPS. Wacha has a 4.06 ERA.

Another plus to the Over is home plate umpire Mark Wegner. He's a hitter's umpire. The Over is 36-24 (60 percent) in games he' been behind the plate during the last four years.

Step aside please, I'm boarding the crowded fade Padres train.

San Diego is 1-8 in its last nine games and 1-5 the past six times being favored. The Padres are minus injured Manny Machado and have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Not only are they last in batting average and 26th in runs, but they are batting .196 with runners in scoring position. No team in baseball history has finished with a batting average of less than .200 with runners in scoring position for an entire season.

Boston, by contrast, ranks in the top three in runs, batting average and OPS.

I'd certainly give an edge to the Red Sox, too, in starting pitching where Chris Sale goes against Joe Musgrove.

Sale is showing signs of returning to his once-dominant form going 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.73 WHIP during his last three starts.

Musgrove is 1-1 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in four starts. One of those starts was in Mexico City where pitchers didn't stand a chance in that bandbox stadium and high altitude. But even if you discount that start, Musgrove still would have an ERA above 4.00. He's surrendered five homers in 19 innings.

I like the Twins here and the price is right to back them. Minnesota has its new-found ace, Joe Ryan, going with a rested bullpen. The Twins were idle Thursday. They stay in Los Angeles having just faced the Dodgers, while the Angels concluded a seven-game, seven-day road trip with a one-run victory against the Orioles on Thursday.

Ryan is in early Cy Young Award competition with a 6-1 record, 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. 

Angels starter Reid Detmers is 0-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in contrast to Ryan's outstanding numbers. Detmers faced the Twins last season and was 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA.

I'm going to lay a small road price to get behind the Phillies as they try to avoid being swept by the Giants. 

The Phillies are overdue to produce more runs. They've scored just six runs in their last three games going a mind-boggling 1-for-33 with runners in scoring position during this span.

I see the Phillies breaking through against struggling journeyman-type Ross Stripling, who has a 7.42 ERA in his last three starts. 

Philadelphia starter Taijuan Walker usually beats bad teams, which the Giants are at 19-23. Walker's teams are 19-4 (83 percent) in his last 23 starts when he's faced a sub .500 opponent. The Giants are 2-6 in their last eight games against a righty starter. 

The starters are terrible. So are the bullpens. Yet the total is below double-digits. 

So I'm going Over in the Diamondbacks-A's matchup tonight. The Over has cashed in 61 percent of Oakland's games this season.

Tommy Henry goes for Arizona. He has a 4.43 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. The Diamondbacks' bullpen has the fifth-highest ERA in the league at 4.50. 

The A's have a worse starter, Kyle Muller, and a far worse bullpen. Muller has a 7.34 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. The A's' bullpen has the highest ERA in baseball by a large margin at 6.79. 

The Guardians are seven games better than the disappointing 14-28 White Sox and have their ace going, Shane Bieber.

Bieber is off to a good start with a 3-1 record and 2.61. The same can't be said for the White Sox, who are 9-20 in their last 29 home games and could be starting Lance Lynn, who has been awful with a 1-5 record, 7.51 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

The Guardians, who have a winning road record, rate a strong edge with Bieber on the hill no matter who the White Sox pitch today. Bieber is 8-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 17 career starts versus the White Sox.

The White Sox have been dealing with injuries to key players all season. Out for the White Sox are Elvis Andrus, Eloy Jimenez and possibly Yasmani Grandal.

On paper, it looks like the oddsmaker set a correct total with a pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Jack Flaherty. But on closer inspection, that's not the case. The number is short.

The Brewers are averaging six runs per game in their last three games. Flaherty isn't nearly the pitcher he was a few years ago. He has a 6.18 ERA. His ERA is 12.75 in his last three starts. The Brewers rank in the top 10 in batting average and on-base percentage versus righthanders. 

Peralta holds a 5.94 career ERA versus the Cardinals in 13 appearances that includes nine starts. St. Louis is swinging hot bats averaging 6.2 runs in its last 10 games. 

The Over is 9-1-1 in the Cardinals' last 11 home games. 

The last five games between these two NL West rivals have gone Under. Expect that trend to continue today.

Tony Gonsolin is starting for LA. That's bad news for San Diego. Gonsolin has a 1.93 ERA in three starts this year. He's owned the Padres career-wise with a 4-0 record and 1.45 ERA in five starts. The Padres have scored just 10 runs in their last four games. The Under is 14-3-1 in the Padres' last 18 road games.

The Padres are pitching lefty Ryan Weathers, who has a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings this season. The Dodgers are batting .198 against lefty pitching, worst in the majors.

Often key bats are missing from the starting lineup on Sunday due to rest. Another plus is Bill Miller being the home plate umpire. He has a huge strike zone.

The Angels nipped the Guardians, 5-4, Friday night by scoring twice in the ninth inning. That was just their second road win against the Guardians in 23 games in Cleveland during the past eight years.

Now the Angels face another long-standing angle - beating Cal Quantrill. The Guardians are 21-3 for 88 percent in Quantrill's last 24 regular season starts. Quantrill is off his best performance of the season, too, shutting out the Twins for seven innings while giving up only one hit.

The Angels are starting Reid Detmers, who is 0-3 with a 5.10 ERA. This will be Detmers' sixth start of the year. He's turned in just one quality start.
I thought the Guardians would come a solid favorite here instead of being in the pick and plus range. So I'm on Cleveland.

I'm seeing positive signs now with Chris Sale, who gets the start here. The seven-time All-Star is off a 5-3 win against the Phillies. He struck out 10 in six innings. Sale's fastball was back up to 99 mph. He hasn't thrown that hard in five years.

Opposing Sale is Steven Matz. Fading Matz this season has proven quite profitable. St. Louis is 1-6 in his seven starts. Matz has a 5.70 ERA. He has a career 5.75 ERA versus the Red Sox in four starts.

Boston is five games above .500. The Cardinals have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league at 14-25.

The Red Sox are 101-49 the past 150 times when playing an opponent with a below .400 percentage.

Current form, pitching matchup and a strong situational element make the Dodgers an easy choice here.

LA is playing its best ball winning 10 of its past 12 games. San Diego is 1-4 in its last five games.

The pitching matchup is slow-starting Blake Snell versus Dustin May. Snell is 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA on the road this season. May is 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA this season. That ERA gets reduced even more to 2.20 if you go by just his last three starts.

The Dodgers are rested after being idle yesterday, while the Padres are traveling from Minnesota where they just concluded a three-game series against the Twins that finished on Thursday.

LA has defeated San Diego in 38 of the past 52 times it has hosted the Padres.

Maybe, just maybe, the buy sign is on for the White Sox. Well, it is at least for this game in a pitching matchup of Dylan Cease versus Zack Greinke.

Cease is off to a slow start with a 2-1 record and 4.58 ERA. He was an elite pitcher last year and he still rates two-to-three levels higher than Greinke, who is just an innings-eater at this late stage of his career. Greinke has a 5.25 ERA. He's been bad in four of his last five starts. Cease has a 2.58 career ERA against Kansas City in 12 starts.

Sometimes I'm leery about playing a baseball game Over on Sunday when days off are more frequent for starters. 

But I'm going to get involved in this Over. After all, it's the A's versus the Royals. 

The A's are starting rookie Mason Miller. He's backed by an Oakland bullpen that is the worst in the majors with a whopping 6.60 ERA. 

Kansas City is swinging its hottest bats all season averaging six runs in its last eight games. The Royals have left 22 men on base during the first two games of this series - yet still have scored 12 runs. 

Ryan Yarbrough gets the start for Kansas City. That's not good if you're a Royals fan. Yarbrough is 0-4 with a 7.40 ERA. He has thrown a mind-boggling 157 combined pitches in his last two starts spanning just 7 2/3 innings. 

The A's have scored 17 runs during the first two games of this series. The Royals have surrendered at least seven runs in six of their last nine games. Their bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in the majors at 5.44. 

As an added bonus, the wind is blowing out to left at 10-to-15 mph. That's not good news for Yarbrough. Neither is the fact that the Over is 10-1 (91 percent) the last 11 times the A's have faced a lefty starter. 

The Orioles upset the Braves as better than a 2-to-1 underdog on Friday. I don't see Baltimore doing that again today in a matchup of Kyle Bradish versus Spencer Strider.

Strider is emerging as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Strider is tied for the National League in strikeouts, too.

Bradish is 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.84 HIP. He's been bashed for 10 earned runs in his last two starts versus the Red Sox and Tigers in seven innings.

The Braves have won by more than one run during nine of their past 10 victories.

There's only one way to attack this game - and that's go Over the total. It's not because the wind is blowing out either.

The A's have by far the worst pitching in the majors. This applies both to their starters and bullpen, which has a 6.78 ERA. That's the worst bullpen ERA in the majors.

Oakland is starting Kyle Muller, who has a 6.28 ERA. The Royals are swinging hot bats, scoring 23 runs in their last three games.

Brad Keller gets the start for Kansas City. He has a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts. That's similar to his past two seasons where he posted ERA's of 5.09 and 5.39.

The Over has cashed in 20 of the A's 32 games this season.

The White Sox have been a monster disappointment at 10-22 as they begin a seven-game road trip.

Lance Lynn certainly hasn't helped. Neither has Chicago's bullpen. The White Sox are 0-6 in Lynn's starts this season. Lynn has a 7.16 ERA. He's giving up 4.1 walks and 2.2 homers per nine innings. The Reds average more than five runs a game at home. White Sox relievers have the second-highest ERA at 6.47.

Oh, yes, the White Sox have also lost eight consecutive road games.

Promising Hunter Greene gets the start for Cincinnati. He's proving he's more than just a tremendous strikeout pitcher with a 2.89 ERA. Greene has yielded just one earned run during his last 14 innings. He's averaging 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

The White Sox rank 28th in road on-base percentage at .284. They are averaging just 3.6 runs when playing on the road.

The Brewers are due for a strong offensive performance. Look for it to come in this get-away, day game, the finale of their three-game road series against the Rockies.

This is Coors Field, after all, the best hitting stadium in the majors. The wind will be blowing out, too, at 11-to-13 mph.

Relief pitcher Connor Seabold is set to make his first start of the season replacing injured German Marquez. Seabold has a 5.27 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He was part of the Rockies' bottom-eight ERA bullpen. Seabold career numbers are even worse - 8.49 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 35 major league innings.

Colorado has scored 22 runs in its last three games, all at home. The Rockies draw Wade Miley. He has a 4.25 lifetime ERA against the Rockies.

Two hot offenses, a hitter's park with the wind blowing out and a pair of disappointing starters should ensure double-digit runs being produced in this Blue Jays-Red Sox matchup.

Toronto is averaging 6.3 runs in its last three games. Boston is averaging 7.0 runs in its last four games.

Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah has been disappointing so far this season with a 4.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Boston ranks in the top five in runs, batting average, homers and OPS.

Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has a 5.11 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

The Over has cashed the past seven times the Blue Jays and Red Sox have met.

The forecast is for the wind to be blowing out to left at around 5-to-7 mph. 

The Braves are not a team I normally like to go against. But I find value on the home 'dog Marlins.

Miami has a winning record on the season. The Marlins are 10-7 at home. 

The Marlins had won four in a row until the Braves shut them out, 6-0, on Tuesday. 

I see the Marlins coming back to win today's game in a starting pitching matchup of Kyle Wright versus Braxton Garrett.

Wright led the majors in wins last year going 21-5. He hasn't been that effective this season with an 0-1 record, a 4.86 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. 

Garrett has been the better pitcher with a 1-0 mark, 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Miami is 4-0 in Garrett's last four starts, including a 5-4 victory against the Braves last week when these two pitchers went against each other.  

Both Toronto and Boston have top-10 offenses. The Red Sox are No. 3 in the majors in runs. That's not good for starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Corey Kluber.

Berrios is bad on the road. Kluber is bad at Fenway Park.

Berrios has a 7.56 road ERA. Boston has scored 15 runs in its last two games. Kluber's home ERA is 8.78.

Temperatures are only going to reach the low 50's, but the wind is blowing out to left field at 8-9 mph.

The Astros host the Phillies in the middle game of their 3-game World Series rematch. Aaron Nola beat the Astros, 3-1, in Friday night's opener.

It has been 18 games since the Astros dropped consecutive games. They have won by an average of 5.3 runs following each of their past six losses.

Even with that victory, the Phillies are just 12-28 in their last 40 interleague road games. The Astros are 66-31 in their last 97 home games.

The Astros have the far superior bullpen and I give them the checkmark, too, in starting pitchers with a matchup of Zach Wheeler versus Christian Javier.

Wheeler is off to a slow start with a 4.73 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Javier has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. Houston is 4-1 in Javier's five starts.

The Astros have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA at 2.90. Philadelphia relievers rank 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.65.

These two teams each won 101 games last year. But the Braves are the better team through this first month of this season.

The Mets just got through losing a series to the lowly Nationals. New York is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mets are giving up an average of 5.8 runs in their last five games.

The Braves enter the opener of this series disgusted and mad after blowing a 4-run ninth inning leading against the Marlins on Thursday.

The pitching matchup of Max Fried versus David Peterson greatly favors Atlanta.

Fried was the National League Cy Young Award runner-up last season. He is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA this season. Peterson is 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA. He has a 4.50 career ERA versus the Braves in eight appearances, including seven starts.

The Braves have won eight of their last nine road games.

I find George Kirby and lefty Matt Strahm to be two below-the-radar pitchers. Given the weather conditions, home plate umpire and these starters being underrated, I'm going Under.

Kirby has the potential to be a star pitcher. He's backed by a Seattle bullpen that has the seventh-lowest ERA in the majors.

Strahm has a 3.00 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 18 innings. The Mariners are batting only .206 against southpaw pitching. The Under has cashed the last six times the Mariners have gone against a lefty starter.

Andy Fletcher is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 36-15 (71 percent) the past three years when Fletcher has been behind the plate.

This is a day getaway game. The weather isn't a plus for offense with the forecast being cloudy with temperatures only in the low 50's.

The Yankees are 2-3 against the Twins this season. They just lost, 6-1, to the Twins and former teammate Sonny Gray on Monday. The Yankees have averaged only 3.1 runs in their last dozen games while hitting just .199 during this time frame.

So why get involved with the Yankees today?

It's tough to turn down a plus price on New York when Nestor Cortes is on the hill. The Yankees are 8-1 this season when Cortes and Gerrit Cole have started. They are 5-9 in their other games.

The Yankees also have dominated the Twins despite Monday's loss going 116-43 (73 percent) versus the Twins the past 21 years.

Minnesota is starting Joe Ryan, who is 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA. Nothing against Ryan. But I prefer Cortes, who has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Cortes hasn't given up more than three earned runs during his past 16 starts.

This is my MLB Game of the Week.

The Texas Rangers lead the AL West with a 14-8 record and have their second-best pitcher, Martin Perez, starting for them today. The Reds have the third-worst record in the National League at 8-15. They are starting Luke Weaver, who is on the comeback trail and has a long way to go to regain respectability following a serious arm injury.

It's actually an advantage for the Rangers to be playing at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park because it's one of the best hitter's parks in baseball and the Rangers have the far superior offense.

Texas has scored the second-most runs in baseball. The Rangers also rank fifth in batting average and are eighth in homers. The Reds have a bottom-10 offense. They have the third-fewest homers, too.

Perez is a late bloomer. The 31-year-old earned his first All-Star honor last year after 11 years in the majors. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts. The Rangers' bullpen blew Monday's game to the Reds in a 7-6 loss. But that shouldn't happen again. Texas entered this series with the second-best bullpen ERA.

The Reds had lost six in a row prior to Monday. This will be Weaver's second start of the season after throwing just 35 2/3 innings last season, mostly in relief. Weaver gave up four runs in six innings against the Pirates in his start this year, giving up two homers.

Look for the Rangers to bounce back here behind Perez and underrated offense.

The Giants are proving not to be very good with an 8-13 record. One problem for them is their inability to win a series opener. San Francisco has played six series this season and lost Game 1 in five of them.

There has been no winning consistency either with the Giants. They are 1-8 following a victory.

The Cardinals are off to a slow start, too, at 9-13. But they are the superior team and I like their starting pitcher better in a matchup of Jordan Montgomery versus Alex Cobb. Montgomery's 4.84 ERA is misleading as he's had three strong outings in four starts.

Cobb has a 2.79 ERA, but has yet to win. Cobb doesn't figure to be helped by a bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen, by contrast, ranks in the top 10 in ERA.

The Royals are looking terrible again. They are 2-10 in their last 12 games with nine of the 10 losses coming by multiple runs.

Angels starter Reid Detmers is up and down. He looked good, though, in his last start, holding the Red Sox to two runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings last Sunday.

The Royals are going with Jordan Lyles, who has been nothing but a journeyman. Lyles traditionally hasn't fared well against the Angels with a 6.39 ERA in 10 career outings, including nine starts.

The Royals have lost 10 of their last 14 road games against the Angels.

This comes down to value again for me. St. Louis is off to a slow start. But the Mariners also are below .500.

The line is high because Seattle is starting Luis Castillo. He's off to a huge start going 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA. I've always considered the streaky Castillo better than average rather than great. I think he's overrated. Castillo, a former Reds player, has a 4.25 ERA in 18 starts versus St. Louis.

Castillo's numbers are due to go up while Cardinals starter, Miles Mikolas, numbers are due to go down. The righthander has an 8.10 ERA. Mikolas had his best outing of the season in his last start, however. He held the surprising 14-7 Pirates to two runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Mariners are 2-6 the past eight times they've faced a righty starter at home.

If the A's weren't bad enough now the news has broken that they likely will be moving to Las Vegas. That has to be a major distraction for the Oakland players. 

Being a Las Vegas resident I say let Oakland keep the A's. Who wants them? The A's are the worst team in baseball, losers of 16 of 19 games. 

The A's have the worst run margin difference in the majors at minus-86. They have lost seven in a row, losing their last three games by an average of 7.6 runs. So I have no qualms about laying 1 1/2 runs with the Rangers on the run line.

Texas is off to a 12-6 start looking much improved. The Rangers have won four in a row. 

Texas starter Jon Gray can dominate weak-hitting teams such as the A's, who have a bottom-five offense and just lost outfielder Ramon Laureano to injury. J.P. Sears gets the start for Oakland backed by a terrible A's bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA with a 6.78 ERA. Sears has a 5.00 ERA in two career starts against Texas. 

I find this a fair price to lay in order to back the superior team and pitcher in a good situational spot.

The 12-7 Mets have won six of their last seven games. They have a strong history against weak teams, which the 6-11 Giants are. New York is 43-19 (69 percent) the past 62 times when playing opponents with a winning percentage below .400 percent.

The pitching matchup pits Kodai Senga against Sean Manaea. Senga has looked good in three starts going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 16 innings. Manaea hasn't been as impressive with a 4.76 ERA.

The Giants are off an extra inning victory against the Marlins yesterday. They are 0-7 the past seven times following a victory. The Giants also had to make the long cross-country flight from South Florida to Northern California crossing three time zones. The Mets, on the other hand, already are in California having just concluded a successful series against the Dodgers.

Three main reasons why I want the Astros going for me here: Line value, Houston home off a loss and fading Jose Berrios on the road.

The Blue Jays beat the Astros, 4-2, on Tuesday. The Astros have won by 4, 7, 6 and 7 runs following their past four defeats. Long-term, the Astros are 42-15 after losing their previous game.

Berrios had a 6.36 road ERA last season. He has an 11.17 road ERA this season in starts against the Angels and light-hitting Royals. Berrios has a 4.81 ERA in seven career starts versus Houston.

The Astros are going with Luis Garcia, who has a 4.00 career ERA against Toronto in three starts.

Corey Kluber isn't just past his prime. The 37-year-old days as an effective starter may be finished. Kluber is 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA this season. The Red Sox must secretly have buyer's remorse.

The wind will be blowing out at 10-to-12 miles per hour at Fenway Park.

The combination of Kluber and the wind blowing out at hitter-friendly Fenway Park help put me on the Over.

Minnesota is starting Joe Ryan. He's due for some regression being 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA. He's facing a Boston lineup that ranks sixth in runs and 10th in homers.

The Braves have won seven in a row. They are the best team in the National League. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games. They've scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games.

The starting pitching matchup heavily favors the Braves, too.

So I like the Braves a lot here.

Spencer Strider goes against lefty Blake Snell.

Strider is an emerging star in his second season. His career numbers are 13-5 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 229-to-54 strikeouts to walk ratio.

Snell traditionally begins slow. He's really struggling this season. Snell has given up 11 runs, 10 of which were earned, on 18 hits and 10 walks in his last three starts spanning 13 innings. Opponents are batting .327 against him during this span. The Braves are 5-1 versus lefty starters this season. They have the second-highest batting average against southpaw pitching at .324.

The Braves just saw Snell 12 days ago and got to him for four runs on six hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings.

I want the Astros off a 9-1 home loss to the Rangers. Houston is 41-15 (73 percent) the past 56 times following a loss.

And the Astros are an underdog here.

The Blue Jays just finished a big three-game series against the Rays. So their concentration could be a little off.

Toronto holds a starting pitching edge with Kevin Gausman versus Christian Javier.

Gausman is an elite pitcher. However, he has a losing lifetime record against the Astros with a 4.55 ERA in five career starts.

Grayson Rodriguez has a high ceiling for Baltimore. But Rodriguez hasn't shown he's ready for the majors during his first two starts this season. He has a 6.75 ERA. 

The White Sox are going with their ace, Dylan Cease, who is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA. Cease was dominant last season going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings. He has 24 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings this season. 

I want Cease going for me at this price. Rodriguez is a fade until he proves himself. 

Yes, these teams can hit. But the starting pitching matchup of Shane McClanahan versus Alek Manoah trumps that. These are two legitimate Cy Young Award candidates.

McClanahan is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He has a 2.87 career ERA in six starts against Toronto.

Toronto hasn't given up more than three runs in any of its past five games. The Rays' bats are cooling off. They are averaging 2.5 runs in their last two games. 

Manoah has a 1.42 lifetime ERA versus the Rays in seven starts. 

There's a huge class difference between these two teams. So I find this a short price to lay.

Promising Bryce Elder makes his 12th career start for Atlanta. He hasn't allowed a run in 12 1/3 innings this season. Elder faces an anemic Royals offense that ranks in the bottom three in runs and batting average.

The Royals are pitching lefty Kris Bubic, who had a 5.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP last season. Bubic has pitched much better in his first two starts, but now encounters a hot Ronald Acuna and a Braves team that is batting .336 against lefties.

Maybe my trust is misplaced. But I've always been high on White Sox pitcher Michael Kopech especially now that he's healthy. Kopech has bad early numbers - 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA - but the buy sign is on for me to back Kopech and the White Sox at home at this price.

Kopech is coming off a well-pitched game. He allowed one run on two hits in six innings against the Pirates this past Sunday. Kopech has been solid against the Orioles with a 3.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in eight innings.

I'm not a fan of Orioles starter Kyle Gibson. He had an ERA above 5.00 with the Phillies the previous two seasons and a 5.35 ERA with the Rangers in 2020.

No surprise Oakland has the worst record so far at 3-10. That's because the A's are the worst team in the league.

The Mets are going with Kodai Senga, their big off-season pickup from Japan. Senga has been brilliant so far going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He has a rested bullpen behind him as the Mets were idle Thursday.

The A's are in action for the eighth straight day. They have a taxed bullpen and a terrible starter going today, James Kaprielian. He has an 11.17 ERA in his two starts this season bombed by the Guardians and Rays.

Each of the Mets' seven victories have come by more than one run.

Both starting pitchers, Bailey Falter for Philadelphia and Nick Lodolo for Cincinnati, have looked good in the early going this season. But the Phillies own the superior bullpen, catch the Reds in their first home game following a six-game road trip that ended yesterday, and are the underdogs.

So given these factors, I'll take a plus price on the Phillies, who I regard as the better team.

The Phillies have defeated the Reds in six of their last seven meetings.

Even though Corbin Burnes is off to a slow start, this total is too low given the quality of the starting pitchers.

Burns is due for a big game. The NL Cy Young Award winner of two seasons ago, has a 2.87 career ERA versus the Diamondbacks. He's struck out 23 Arizona batters in 15 2/3 innings.

Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly had a 3.13 lifetime ERA versus the Brewers in six starts. That ERA shrinks to 0.90 if you just count Kelly's last three starts against Milwaukee. 

The Brewers have scored only 10 runs in their last four games. 

Happy Patrick Corbin day. Corbin may be the worst starting pitcher in the majors. This is especially so early in the season.

Corbin had an 8.39 ERA in March/April last season. His ERA is 8.00 through two starts this year.

He also isn't very good on the road where he was 2-11 with a 7.75 ERA last year.

Corbin is facing an Angels team that ranks No. 3 in runs, No. 5 in homers and has the fifth-best ERA.

Angels starter Jose Suarez had a tough opening outing. The lefty should find things much easier against the Nationals, who are last in the league ih homers.

Washington has dropped 11 of its last 12 interleague games when facing a southpaw starter.

The Nationals have lost by an average of 3.7 runs during their seven defeats this season.

I shed no tears whenever the Dodgers lose as they did to the Diamondbacks, 12-8, on Saturday.

But I do look to play on the Dodgers in their next game if the price is right. This price is right.

The Dodgers are 53-23 following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 1-8 following a victory.

Slight edge to the Dodgers in the starting pitching department with Michael Grove facing Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.40 ERA.

This is an action play for me, though. The Diamondbacks look improved, but the Dodgers still are the far superior team. The lay price is low enough to get involved with the Dodgers in this obvious bounce back spot.

The combination of good pitching - both starting and bullpen - and bad hitting weather should result in a score similar to the five runs that were scored in New York's 4-1 victory yesterday.

The Yankees are going with Nestor Cortes, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and on the brink of stardom. Cortest is 3-0 lifetime against the Orioles with a 1.06 ERA.

Tyler Wells will make his first start of the year for Baltimore. He hasn't been scored on in five innings of relief that season.

The temperature will be in the upper 40's with the wind blowing in.

The Nationals are one of the worst teams in baseball - especially when facing a lefty starter.

That will be the case in this matchup where Washington goes against southpaw Austin Gomber.

The Nationals were 16-40 against lefties last year. They are 1-5 this season versus them. 

The Rockies are tough at Coors Field. They had the highest home batting average and slugging percentage of any team last season. 

Colorado draws Trevor Williams, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA this season. The Nationals have lost 36 of their last 53 road games. 

The handicap here is not complicated. The Astros are underdogs. That's a rarity and one I'm not going to pass up. 

This is the first time this season Houston is not favored. The Astros won the last five times they were 'dogs last season.  

Houston also has defeated Minnesota during the past six meetings.

The pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus Sonny Gray. I'll take Urquidy backed by a superior bullpen, but this is an action play. 

The Astros are 6-0 in their last six road games when facing a righty starter. They also are 12-4 the past 16 times going against a righty starter. 

The Yankees have long had the Orioles' number. New York is 46-18 during its last 64 games against Baltimore, including 12-7 last year.

The Orioles have matched the Yankees' power in the early going so far. The difference is on the mound. The Yankees have a team ERA of 2.33 compared to the Orioles' 5.40 ERA.

New York has owned the Orioles in Baltimore, beating them 36 of the past 51 times there.

I see that continuing in a pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt versus Dean Kremer.

Schmidt has a 2.08 ERA in 8 2/3 career innings versus Baltimore. He's backed by the superior bullpen.

Kremer is off to a bad start. He surrendered five runs on six hits in three innings against the Red Sox in his first start of the season this past Saturday. Lifetime, Kremer is 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA in six starts versus the Yankees.

The Dodgers aren't likely to match their major league-best 111 wins of last season. They don't have departed Trea Turner, Justin Turner and out for the season injured star pitcher Walker Buehler.

But you know what? The Dodgers are still darn good and they still have outstanding starting pitchers. They are a team either worth playing on, or passing.

I'm on the Dodgers here in this early revenge spot

Dustin May is a perfect example of the Dodgers' deep starting pitching staff. He goes against the Diamondbacks and Merrill Kelly. It's a repeat of the team's game from last Friday when the two starting pitchers went up against each other.

May, on the comeback trail after missing much of the past two seasons following Tommy John surgery, displayed his vast potential throwing seven shutout innings allowing only three hits. Kelly couldn't get out of the fourth inning having allowed three hits and four walks.

Yet the Diamondbacks won, 2-1, thanks to a two-run eighth inning homer by pinch hitter Kyle Lewis against Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia.

The Dodgers were minus $1.87 in that game. Now the price is more reasonable to get the vastly superior team.

Clayton Kershaw has had trouble with the Diamondbacks, but LA is 20-7 during its last 27 games played at Arizona.

May could be an emerging monster now that he's finally healthy. Kelly is a decent pitcher. However, he's facing a Dodgers offense that ranks No. 2 in the majors in homers with 13 in six games, is first in OPS and has scored the third-most runs.

The Diamondbacks, by contrast, rank 25th in runs, have hit only four homers and are batting just .224.

Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios all pitched poorly for the Blue Jays in their first starts of the season. Now it's Yusei Kikuchi's turn in the rotation. I don't expect much from him.

Why should I? Kikuchi was one of the worst starting pitchers in the American League with a 5.19 ERA last season. He's been tagged for 50 homers the past two seasons.

Yet the Blue Jays, losers of three in a row, are big favorites here.

I had the Royals as home underdogs yesterday and I'll ride them again today. Kansas City broke out of its hitting slump with a 9-5 win against Toronto on Monday.

Kris Bubic gets the start for Kansas City. He looked good during spring training going 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA in 10 1/3 innings with 15 strikeouts during five appearances. He faced the Blue Jays once last year and gave up two unearned runs in seven innings.

The Phillies are struggling out of the gate losing their first four games. They are averaging four runs a game. The Yankees have already smacked nine homers in opening 3-1 while also drawing 19 walks. 

New York is tough to beat at Yankee Stadium going 59-25 during its last 84 home games. The Yankees went 26-15 versus lefties last season and face southpaw Matt Strahm. He is 4-10 with a 5.08 ERA in his career as a starter.

This is an important outing for Yankee starter Domingo German, who had a 3.61 ERA last season but has battled injuries. 

Still have any optimism about the Tigers this season? Detroit looks as bad as ever opening the season 0-3 after getting swept by the Rays. The Tigers scored just three runs during the series.

I certainly don't see things changing for Detroit in the immediate future against the Astros.

Matt Boyd is set to make his first start for the Tigers since 2021. I don't expect him to go deep into the game, nor to be very effective against the powerful Astros, who look as strong as ever.

Hunter Brown is set to face Boyd. Brown is the Astros' top prospect. He displayed his vast potential in seven appearances last season, including two starts, going 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA.