As bad as the Yankees are, they still are better than Detroit. The Yankees should be fired-up after a highly contentious series against the Rays.

The Tigers don't get ripped on like the Yankees because no one expects anything from them. Detroit has lived up to form again this season with a 59-71 record. That's three games worse than the Yankees.

Detroit just lost its last two games by a combined 20 runs to the Astros.

The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus Reese Olson. Miserable is too nice of a word to describe how Severino's pitched after returning from a lat muscle injury. It's been hideous - up to his last start. Severino held the Nationals to one hit and two walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to pick up a victory last Wednesday. So there's hope.

Severino has a strong history versus Detroit with a 4-1 career mark and 2.11 ERA in seven starts.

Olson is 2-5 with a 5.29 ERA, which jumps up to a 6.75 ERA if you go by his last three starts.

Kudos to the Brewers for winning seven in a row and building a four-game lead in the NL Central Division.

Milwaukee has a right to feel a little fat and happy. I don't see the Brewers winning this game, though, facing one of the more below-the-radar pitchers in the majors.

San Diego starter Michael Wacha is 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA. He is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last seven starts. This will be his third start since coming off the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. He's 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in those two outings pitching 10 1/3 innings against the Marlins and Orioles.

The Brewers are going with Adrian Houser, a fifth-type rotation starter. He's 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA. Houser had a 5.66 ERA in four July starts and has a 3.80 ERA in four starts this month.

This low lay price makes it easy to back the Cubs.

The Cubs have owned the Pirates winning eight of nine games from them this season.

Look for that to continue in a pitching matchup of Javier Assad versus Bailey Falter.

Assad is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He's been sharp lately with a 2.86 ERA in his last four starts.

Falter is 1-7 with a 4.53 ERA. Falter has a 9.35 ERA in four career appearances versus the Cubs.

Two of the more underrated pitchers in the American League are Cleveland rookie Tanner Bibee and Toronto's nine-year veteran Chris Bassitt. They face each other here and the oddsmaker has set the total too high overlooking just how effective these two pitchers have been.

Bibee has been getting better, not worse. He's 7-1 with a 2.34 ERA in his past 11 outings. One of these starts came against the Blue Jays on August 8. Bibee held the Blue Jays scoreless for seven innings in a 1-0 victory. He allowed six hits with no walks and six strikeouts.

Bassitt has been excellent at home compiling a 6-2 mark with a 2.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in a dozen home starts for the Blue Jays this season.

Bassitt draws a weak-hitting Guardians squad that ranks last in homers and 28th in runs. Cleveland is averaging just 2.6 runs per game in its last seven games if you discount an eight-run performance against the Dodgers.

Luis Severino is the Adam Wainwright of the American League, a once very-good pitcher, who has been absolutely terrible this season.

Severino is enduring the worst stretch of his eight-year career. He is 1-6 with an 11.08 ERA during his last eight outings, including seven starts. He's surrendered 19 homers on the season in 65 2/3 innings. His last three starts have been absolutely brutal - a 13.50 ERA and 2.38 WHIP.

The Nationals know how to get on base. They rank fifth in the majors in batting average.

The Yankees go against lefty MacKenzie Gore, who has a 5.11 road ERA. The Yankees are averaging 5.1 runs against southpaws this season.

On paper, the Angels are justified being home favorites with a pitching matchup of Graham Ashcraft opposing Lucas Giolito.

Reality is different.

The Reds have the hotter pitcher going and are the more motivated team.

Cincinnati harbors postseason hope. They have a lot of exciting youth. The Angels have fallen out of realistic playoff contention having lost 13 of their last 18 games.

Ashcraft has a 4.89 ERA. However, he has pitched much better during the second half of the season. Ashcraft hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during each of his past nine starts. His road and night splits are much better than his home and day time pitching numbers.

Ashcraft could catch the Angels' hitters rusty from not having played the last two days.

Giolito is having a second straight down season. He's been especially bad for the Angels since coming from the White Sox. Giolito has made four starts for the Angels and is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA.

The Reds' 33-27 road mark is better than the Angels' home record.

He's 40, but Justin Verlander still is an elite pitcher. He isn't being priced like one, however, pitching at home against the Red Sox and Tanner Houck.

Houck has been out the past two months after taking a line drive below his right eye against the Yankees on June 16. It remains to be seen how long and effective Houck can be.

Before his injury, Houck wasn't in good form with an 0-6 record and 5.40 ERA during his last nine starts.

The Astros are off a well-played victory against the Red Sox last night. I like the pitching matchup for the Astros and their momentum. The Red Sox are just a .500 team on the road.

After a fun Sunday playing the Nationals in the MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., the Phillies will be taking this game very seriously, especially after getting upset by Washington last night.

As well as they should.

The Phillies are just two games ahead of the Giants for a wild-card berth.

I like the Phillies' chances here. They've won eight of their past dozen home games and hold a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola facing Scott Alexander in what shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Nola pitches better at home where his ERA is 3.59 compared to 5.26 on the road.

The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 games. They just placed shortstop Brandon Crawford on the injured list leaving them with a huge gap at a key defensive position.

San Francisco's bullpen is stretched, too. Giants relievers had to pitch 7 1/3 innings to edge the Braves, 4-3, on Sunday after starter Jakob Junis pitched just 1 2/3 innings.

That was just the Giants' second away victory during their last 14 road games.

I harbor no big illusions anymore for Michael Kopech. I thought for years he would be a great pitcher once he got fully healthy. It hasn't happened. Kopech is who he is - a potentially high strikeout pitcher with mediocre numbers, 5-10 record and 4.58 ERA.

But the White Sox and Kopech still are better than the Rockies and their starter, Peter Lambert, who is 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA.

The White Sox are a major disappointment. However, they still have some feared batters. Luis Robert Jr. gives them the best player on the field. The Rockies are in full rebuild mode.

Chicago is 5-5 in its last 10 games. Colorado is 2-8 in its past 10 games.

Kopech has made just two career starts against the Rockies, but has a strong record to show for that: 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA. He pitched at Coors Field a little more than a year ago and didn't allow a run in 5 1/3 innings.

Corbin Burnes has been back on track for the last month and a half. He's 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings spanning his past eight starts. Burnes has earned trust to hold the powerful Dodgers in check.

But can an Under work when Lance Lynn is the opposing pitcher?

Probably not when Lynn was pitching for the White Sox. But Lynn has been dominant since coming to the Dodgers going 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three starts. He has a strong history, too, versus the Brewers going 11-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 108 1/3 innings that spans 21 appearances, including 17 starts.

Lynn is not facing a very good offensive team. Milwaukee is well below average - 22nd in runs, 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS. The Brewers are having problems scoring in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium managing only three runs during the first two games of this series.

Not only could the Cardinals be down four key starters here against the Mets, but they are pitching Adam Wainwright.

Wainwright has a shot at being a Hall of Famer, but he should have retired at the end of last season like his future Hall of Fame teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.

Instead Wainwright chose to return this year. He shouldn't have. It's been embarrassing. Wainwright has given up three or more runs in 14 of his 15 starts. He's 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA. St. Louis is 2-9 in his last 11 starts.

Not only is Wainwright an auto-fade now, but the Cardinals could be missing four important players facing veteran and former Cardinal Jose Quintana, who is in good form having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Quintana has a 3.03 ERA on the season.

Nolan Gorman has missed St. Louis' last three games with a lower back injury. Catcher Wilson Contreras has sat out the past two games due to a hip injury. Then on Wednesday, centerfielder Lars Nootbaar and shortstop Tommy Edman left with injuries. After Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, these could be the Cardinals' next four best players.

The Cardinals have underachieved all season, particularly at home where they are 27-34.

St. Louis management doesn't want to embarrass Wainwright. But no way should he still be in the rotation after surrendering eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just one inning against the Royals this past Friday. That's up there for the worst pitching performance of the season.

The Mets have been a major disappointment, too, but they are swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in their last four games.

You know with a total this high on a Cubs home game that wind has to factor.

It does.

The forecast is for 15 mph winds blowing out to left field.

The Cubs have an underrated top-10 offense. They are getting big seasons from a number of below-the-radar hitters, including Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner and recently acquired Jeimer Candelairo. The Cubs rank fifth in the majors in runs, eighth in OPS and 10th in batting average.

The White Sox have produced at least five runs in six of their last nine games. They are averaging five runs a game during their last five games with four of those matchups coming against pitchers much better than who the Cubs will pitch against them.

The Cubs could start Javier Assad. This could turn into a bullpen game for the Cubs.

Both team's closers pitched last night and could be unavailable.

The White Sox are expected to start Mike Clevinger. The White Sox's bullpen has the seventh-highest ERA in the league.

Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team.

Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson.

Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts.

Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road.

Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team.

Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson.

Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts.

Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road.

It didn't draw much publicity, but Logan Gilbert had one of the best starts of the season this past Tuesday. Gilbert shut out the Padres for seven innings giving up one hit and no walks while striking out 12. That was at home.

The underrated Gilbert is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA when pitching on the road. He has a 2.58 ERA during his last seven starts. Gilbert faces a weak-hitting Royals team that ranks 28th in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers.

Opposing Gilbert is Brady Singer, whose season numbers don't impress at 8-8 with a 5.05 ERA. Singer, however, has been below-the-radar since the All-Star break compiling a 2.94 ERA. He has surrendered just seven earned runs during his past four starts spanning 25 2/3 innings with a 27-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame.

The Royals enjoyed a rare Sunday off. So their bullpen is rested.

The Mariners rank 25th in batting average. They do not have one regular batting higher than .266. Seattle has scored fewer than four runs in five of its last seven games.

With this number coming down, I'm going to get involved in the Over. Each team should be good for at least four runs.

Angels rookie starter Chase Silseth is pitching better than his metrics show. He's been lucky and is due for regression. The Angels' bullpen has the third-highest ERA in the league during the past nine days.

The Astros are averaging 5.2 runs during the past 2 1/2 months, which is the highest in the American League.

The Angels should do their share of damage against a rusty Jose Urquidy, who has a 6.20 ERA. This is just his second start since April. The Angels have averaged nearly five runs since the beginning of June.

This should be an excellent pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole going against Eury Perez.

We know we're going to get a strong performance from Cole, an elite starter. Cole has permitted two runs or fewer in 18 of his 24 starts this season. The only pitcher that can match that consistency is Blake Snell.

The Yankees, who lost to the Marlins on Saturday, are 9-1 following a loss when Cole has been on the mound for the next game.

Perez is a rookie with a high ceiling. However, he's not as consistent as Cole. Perez has lost his last three decisions, including giving up four runs in four innings in a loss to the Reds this past Monday.

I find it good value to get Cole in this price range.

Two below-the-radar pitchers go at it here. The Cardinals are going with Steven Matz. KC is starting Cole Ragans.

Matz is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last six starts. He faces a Royals offense that ranks 28th in runs. He also won't have to deal with injured leadoff hitter Maikel Garcia, who is hitting .304 in his last 35 games.

Ragans has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals since coming from the Rangers. He has a 1.02 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings with the Royals.

The oddsmaker is not showing these pitchers enough respect with this high of a total.

After playing 27 games in 28 days, the Reds received a much needed day off on Thursday. I see them coming up big against the Pirates today with good-looking rookie lefty Andrew Abbott and a finally fresh bullpen that has a lower ERA than Pittsburgh's bullpen.

The Pirates could be in a letdown mood after splitting four exciting games against the Braves at home.

Abbott is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has 74 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank 27th in slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching.

Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to make this start. So the price is right to back the Angels and Ohtani.

Just two starts ago, Ohtani threw a complete game one-hit, shutout against the Tigers. Ohtani has a 2.97 home ERA. The Giants have a below offense and don't steal bases ranking second-to-last in the league.

San Francisco also leads the National League in errors and its bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. That matters because this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Giants starter Ryan Walker hasn't pitched more than three innings in a game all season.

Mike Trout isn't back yet for the Angels, but underrated Brandon Drury just came off the injured list. He had three hits and scored three runs for the Angels last night.

Anytime there's a double-digit total on the Royals, my first look is to the Under.

It's my last look, too, for this matchup as I don't see the Red Sox and Royals reaching 10 runs in this game.

Kansas City ranks second-to-last in the league in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers. The Royals are likely to be without their star power-hitting catcher Salvador Perez. He was pulled from Sunday's game suffering a bruised hand after being hit by a pitch. Perez is second on the Royals in homers and RBI's.

That's good news for Boston starter Brayan Bello, who leads the Red Sox in victories. Bello is 8-6 with a 3.79 ERA. That ERA goes down to 3.29 when he pitches at home and shrinks to 2.82 when he pitches at night.

Lefty Cole Ragans draws the start for Kansas City. He's 3-3 with a 4.33 ERA, but is below-the-radar with his current form. He's given up just one earned run in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. Ragans has struck out 11 during this 11-inning span.

The Red Sox rank slightly below average against lefties in slugging percentage and OPS.

The wind will be blowing in at seven mph, another plus for the Under.

Fresh off a three-game road sweep of the Red Sox, the Blue Jays come into Cleveland riding high. But that doesn't mean they should be favored in a pitching matchup of Hyun Jin Ryu versus rookie Gavin Williams.

Ryu made his first big league start since undergoing elbow surgery in June of 2022 this past Tuesdayagainst the Orioles. It did not go well. He permitted four runs on nine hits in five-plus innings. The Orioles won, 13-3.

Obviously rusty, Ryu is likely going to need several more starts to find his groove - if he can find it.

Williams has a high ceiling and is pitching well with a 2.50 ERA in his past four starts. Williams has the element of surprise as the Blue Jays have never faced him. Williams also has the benefit of the stronger bullpen. Cleveland's relief staff has the fourth-lowest ERA.

The lay price is high here for the Braves even on the run line. It should be. Because the Braves hold all the edges - and these are big edges. 
Let's start with the obvious. Atlanta has the best record in baseball at 70-39. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. 

The Braves are the road team. So they'll be assured of getting nine innings of at bats. 

The pitching matchup pits an ''A'' pitcher against a ''D'' type pitcher with Spencer Strider facing Osvaldo Bido.

Strider is 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA. He leads the majors in strikeouts. If he wins this game, he'll be tied for the most victories in the majors. Strider has been at his best, too, on the road where he's 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA. 

Bido is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA. Bido is not in good form with a 7.27 ERA in his last three starts. He pitches worse at home where he's 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA. 
The Braves rank either first or second in runs, batting average, homers and OPS. The Pirates rank among the bottom-seven in those major offensive categories. 

Atlanta won't lack motivation having lost two straight games. If you discount a one-run game against the Angels, the Braves are averaging eight runs per game during their last eight games. 

Each of the Braves' last 11 victories have been by more than one run. 

Lots of big-name hitters here facing two over-the-hill starting pitchers.

Sounds like it shouldn't be too difficult for the Dodgers and Padres to reach double-digit runs, right?

Not so fast.

Let's not forget this game is being played at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors.

Lance Lynn and Rich Hill are a combined 79 years old. Neither has good statistics, but they are savvy veterans both acquired at the trade deadline because they know how to navigate through big games such as this one.

Lynn's problem is giving up too many home runs. He's surrendered 31 of them this season. But Lynn also has 151 strikeouts in 126 innings, which comes out to an average of 10.7 per nine innings. So he still can fire.

The Dodgers' bullpen has shown big improvement leading the league with a 2.84 ERA since June 30 entering the weekend.

The underachieving Padres offense ranks 19th in batting average and 13th in runs.

Look for Hill to pitch better going from the Pirates to the Padres. The lefty won't lack motivation with this being his first start for San Diego. The Dodgers rank 24th in batting average versus southpaw pitching.

This is a huge game for the Padres. They have a rested Josh Hader to go two innings if needed.

Given their large payroll, the Padres are one of the most disappointing teams in baseball.

But don't blame Blake Snell. He's the hottest pitcher in baseball having given up only six earned runs in his last 13 starts! Snell leads the majors with a 2.50 ERA.

The pitching matchup is so huge in San Diego's favor that this is a fair price to lay to get Snell against probable Dodgers starter Michael Grove and what could be a host of below par LA relief pitchers.

Grove has a 6.75 ERA. He just gave up eight runs on 10 hits and a walk to the Reds in six innings this past Sunday.

It's not hard to envision these teams each producing at least nine runs given the starting pitching matchup and the White Sox gutting their bullpen at the trade deadline.

Chicago starter Michael Kopech has been a major disappointment after beginning his career with such high promise. He's 4-10 with a 4.49 ERA. That ERA climbs to 5.09 when he pitches at night. The Guardians just faced Kopech six days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings.

Noah Syndergaard draws the start for Cleveland. Syndergaard has struggled following major arm surgery. He's 1-4 with a 6.68 ERA.

Not only is there a huge class difference in this one, but also in the starting pitchers.

Tampa Bay wisely traded for Aaron Civale, who is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 5-2 record, 2.34 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts.

Civale faces a weak-hitting Tigers lineup that ranks in the bottom-three in many of the major categories, including runs, batting average and homers.

Civale has made 10 career starts versus Detroit. His team won all 10 of those starts with Civale posting a 2.06 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.

Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in good form either with a 7.24 ERA in his last three starts.

I see a wrong favorite here. The Diamondbacks have the better record, have the superior starting pitcher going and have a rested bullpen since they were idle on Thursday while the Twins weren't. 

Merrill Kelly is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA. He's been at his finest on the road and pitching at night. He's 6-1 with a 2.74 road ERA. His night ERA is 2.63. 

The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who is off his worst start of the season. He was hammered by the Royals this past Saturday giving up six earned runs on 11 hits, including two homers, in four innings. The Royals rank second-to-last in the majors in runs. 

Ober may be hitting a wall as he's already thrown a career-high 98 innings. He pitched 56 innings last season. 

The Twins could be without their home run leader as Byron Buxton has missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury. 

Playing the Guardians Under in their AL Central Division games this season has won 78 percent of the time going 25-7. I'm going to ride that trend in today's game.

Neither team is very good offensively, nor in good scoring form. The White Sox rank 27th in runs and 28th in OPS. They are averaging one run in their last four games.

Cleveland is last in the league in homers and ranks 25th in runs. The Guardians are averaging two runs per game during their last six games.

White Sox starter Mike Clevinger just faced the Guardians this past Saturday and held them to two hits in five scoreless innings. He has a 2.91 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five career starts against the Guardians.

Cleveland is starting promising rookie Logan Allen, who is averaging a strikeout per inning.

Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh's best starting pitcher. But he's been anything but an ace lately.

The Pirates have lost Keller's past five starts. Keller has surrendered 21 runs in 28 2/3 innings during this span. Keller's ERA in his last three games is 8.65.

Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser has a 4.13 home ERA compared to 4.66 on the road.

More than the pitchers, this one comes down to price. Milwaukee is seven games above .500. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. The Brewers clearly are the better team. So the price is right to back Milwaukee, especially given Keller's poor current form.

Not many pitchers would turn down a chance to go from the Tigers to the Dodgers.

But Eduardo Rodriguez did. He used a no-trade clause in his contract to void a deal that would have sent him to the NL-West leading Dodgers. His Detroit teammates have to respect the heck out of him for doing that.

I see the Tigers playing exceptionally hard here to support Rodriguez, who is a much better pitcher than Pittsburgh starter Osvaldo Bido.

Rodriguez is 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The lefty has a 2.68 road ERA. The Pirates rank in the bottom-seven versus lefties in key batting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Bido has a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

The Tigers were held to one run on Tuesday. But in their previous four games, they averaged five runs per game.

Sandy Alcantara hasn't lived up to last year's NL Cy Young Award season. Not even close. However, Alcantara has started to pitch better. He's coming off a five-hit, complete game, 7-1, win against the Rays this past Wednesday. Alcantara posted a 3.31 ERA in five July starts.

I like Alcantara and the Marlins to beat the Phillies, who are starting southpaw Ranger Suarez. The Marlins lead the majors by a wide margin in batting average against left-handed pitching hitting .307. The Marlins also have the second-highest on base percentage versus southpaws and rank third against them in OPS.

Suarez slipped badly in July posting a 6.11 ERA.

The Marlins are getting healthy as both Jazz Chisholm and Avisail Garcia are back in their lineup.

It took to the end of July. But the Padres, with their $250 million payroll, finally showed something sweeping the Rangers three games at home.

That puts San Diego five games out of a wildcard spot. It probably means the Padres won't be sellers before Tuesday's trade deadline.

It also means the Padres will be taking this game very seriously since it's the day before the trade deadline.

There's no reason the Padres shouldn't be riding their new-found momentum with a multiple-run road victory here, especially being assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The Rockies have the worst record in the National League. Colorado also just dealt two of its four best power hitters, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, for prospects.

The Padres should score a boatload of runs going from Petco Park to Coors Field and drawing Austin Gomber, who has a 7.19 home ERA. Gomber has pitched 10 innings against the Padres this year and given up 10 runs.

Underrated Seth Lugo draws the start for San Diego. Lugo is in good form giving up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Lugo faced the Rockies once this season and held them to one run in seven innings.

Cleveland's Aaron Civale could be the most below-the-radar pitcher this month. He is 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA in five July starts. Civale faces a White Sox lineup that has scored fewer than five runs in six of their last eight games. He's backed by a relief corps that has the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors.

White Sox starter Michael Kopech has largely been a disappointment given his once high ceiling. However, he pitches better in day games and has a 3.05 ERA in seven career appearances versus Cleveland. He shut out the Guardians in seven innings, giving up only two hits, one walk and posting nine strikeouts when he faced them back on May 24.

The Guardians are swinging cold bats managing just two runs during their past two games. They rank last in the league in homers and 24th in runs and OPS.

These are two very strong offenses facing weak starting pitchers and burned-out bullpens.

Reds starter Luke Weaver has a 7.20 ERA. Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan has a 6.75 ERA, which goes up to 12.41 in his last three starts.

The Reds are a top-nine scoring team. The Dodgers rank in the top-three in runs, homers and OPS.

The White Sox managed to halt a six-game losing streak against the Guardians last night. But I see Cleveland coming back to beat the White Sox today. The White Sox have gutted their pitching staff as they became sellers in anticipation of Tuesday's trade deadline. 

Mike Clevinger could come off the injured list to start for the White Sox for the first time since June 14. Chicago's bullpen, though, figures to get plenty of work and the White Sox no longer have Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo Lopez and Joe Kelly. The White Sox bullpen is inexperienced, untested and lacks a proven closer. 

Cleveland has lost 11 fewer games than the White Sox. The Guardians have promising rookie Logan Allen on the mound. He's 4-3 with a 3.39 ERA. He pitched twice against the White Sox back in May and posted a 3.09 ERA against them in 11 2/3 innings. 

I'm expecting a strong bounce back effort from prideful Logan Webb today. Webb is off perhaps the worst start of his career. He was hammered for six runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals this past Saturday.

Webb had a 1.59 ERA in his first three July starts before that outing.

Webb is much better at home where his ERA is 2.02.

This Boston's first road game since July 19. They lost their last away game to the lowly A's.

Bad spot for the Tigers, who just dropped a doubleheader at home and had to travel to Florida. The Marlins, by contrast, were idle Thursday.

Detroit has one of the weakest offenses in baseball ranking in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS.

The Marlins have been tough at home with 31-20 record. Braxton Garrett should have a bounce-back effort facing this Tigers lineup. Miami is 14-5 in Garrett's starts this season.

Tigers starter Reese Olson is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA.

The Marlins got a much-needed boost when they beat the Rays, 7-1, two days ago in their last game.

Two good starting pitchers. Two weak offenses. So I don't see these teams combining for more than eight runs.

Rookie Tanner Bibee has been outstanding in his four July starts going 2-0 with a 1.14 ERA. He's backed by a Cleveland bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in baseball. The White Sox have never faced Bibee. Chicago has a below average offense.

Dylan Cease is the White Sox's best pitcher and a top-12 strikeout pitcher. Cease has allowed just two runs during his last two starts. He goes against a Cleveland offense that ranks last in homers and 24th both in runs and OPS.

A slight wind of 4-to-6 mph will be blowing in.

The Orioles have the second-best record in baseball with a .614 winning percentage. Maybe the oddsmaker forgot about that. Because Baltimore opened an underdog to the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus lefty Ranger Suarez.

I'm not going to turn down the Orioles. They have the most road victories in baseball and also the best record in the league against southpaws. Bradish also is a better pitcher than Suarez and Baltimore owns the superior bullpen.

The Orioles are 32-19 away from home. They are 23-10 against left-handed starters.

Bradish remains below-the-radar. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last seven starts. He has a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts. Baltimore's bullpen has the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors.

Suarez is in terrible form giving up 15 earned in his last four starts spanning 22 innings. He's permitted 33 hits and 13 walks during this time frame.

Wrong team favored.

In Zac Gallen I trust, especially when he's pitching at home.

Gallen is 9-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his home starts this season.

The Cardinals are one of the biggest underachieving teams. They are 12 games below .500. Arizona, by contrast, is eight games above .500.

Jack Flaherty gets the start for St. Louis. He's not the same elite pitcher he was before injuries took a toll. Flaherty is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA. This is a day game. Flaherty's day time ERA is even worse at 5.66.

Rarely do the Dodgers lose back-to-back home games. You have to go back to June 18 to find the last time that happened.

Look for LA to bounce back after a 6-3 extra inning loss to Toronto last night.

The Dodgers are 29-17 at home. They have Julio Urias, last year's ERA champion, on the mound.

Urias is bouncing back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for six weeks. He was shelled by the Orioles in his last start. Prior to that, however, Urias had allowed only two earned runs in his previous two starts spanning 12 innings with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Blue Jays have never faced Urias so Urias has a surprise element in his favor.

Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has pitched much worse on the road this season where his ERA is 5.81.

I could understand Justin Verlander being priced this low if the Yankees were any good. But they are not. The Yankees are just 14-17 in their last 31 games and their record would be even worse if they didn't just sweep the pathetic Royals three games at home. During their past 31 games, the Yankees have played 39 percent of their games against the Royals, Rockies, Cardinals and A's. Those four teams have a combined mark of 141-263.

It's obvious the Yankees are much worse without Aaron Judge.

The Mets also are just 14-17 in their last 31 games. But they are 3-1 in Verlander's last four starts. They also beat the Yankees when future Hall-of-Famer Verlander last pitched against them on June 14. Verlander gave up one run to the Yankees on three hits in six innings in that game.

Verlander has surrendered three runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. He held the White Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings during his last start this past Wednesday. He is 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 24 career starts against the Yankees.

Domingo German goes for the Yankees. He pitched a perfect game against the A's in Oakland on June 28. But he's a mediocre pitcher. Since then, he's 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts. On the season, German is 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA.

This isn't the best time for the Red Sox to go with a bullpen game. But that's the way they are going with Brennan Bernardino, who hasn't thrown more than two innings in a game this season, the likely opener. The Mets and Red Sox played twice on Saturday so their bullpens carry high fatigue ratings.

The Red Sox should do plenty of damage against Mets starter Carlos Carrasco, who is on the downside of his career. Carrasco is having a dreadful season with a 5.35 ERA. He has a bad history against Boston, too, with a 7.47 ERA in 31 1/3 career innings.

The Red Sox rank in the top-six in runs, batting average and OPS.

The Astros just dominate the hapless A's. They've beaten Oakland 14 of the past 15 times, including all eight games this season. All but one of those victories was by more than one run.

So I feel confident laying 1 1/2 on the run line with the visiting Astros, who are assured of getting nine innings worth of at bats.

Christian Javier is a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. He's 7-1 on the season.

The A's, losers of nine of their last 12 games and with the worst record in baseball, are starting Paul Blackburn. He's not a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.

Blackburn has a 5.48 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Blackburn is in terrible form with an 0-2 record, 10.03 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in his past three appearances. He does not have a good history against the Astros either with an 0-4 record, 11.25 ERA and 1.83 WHIP.

Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi started the season fast. But now he's reverted to his usual bottom-of-a rotation quality.

Kikuchi is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA this month. Kikuchi has surrendered 72 homers in the past three seasons, including 22 already this year.

The Mariners are quite familiar with Kikuchi since he pitched for them for three years before going to the Blue Jays. Kikuchi was 15-24 with a 4.97 ERA in 70 starts for Seattle.

He was below average then and he's still below average.

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are not familiar with Seattle starter Bryce Miller having never faced him. That gives Miller an edge.

Miller is one of the better rookie starters in the American League. He loves to pitch in Seattle where he's 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA.

Below-the-radar starters. Strong bullpens. Wind blowing in. The right elements are in place for there to be fewer than nine runs scored in this Phillies-Guardians matchup.

Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts. He has a 2.39 road ERA. The Phillies rank in the top-10 in lowest bullpen ERA. Closer Craig Kimbrel has turned back the hands of time, not allowing a run during his last 16 appearances.

The Guardians have hit the fewest homers in the majors. They rank 24th in runs and OPS.

Cleveland is going with rookie Gavin Williams, who has a high ceiling. He held the Rangers - the top-scoring team in baseball - to two runs in five innings during his last start. Williams has struck out 11 in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings.

Backing Williams is a rested Guardians relief corps that has the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Phillies scored only seven runs during their recently concluded three-game series against the Brewers.

Both pitchers should be helped by the wind blowing in at eight miles per hour.

The Blue Jays are 26-19 at home and have Jose Berrios starting for them. Berrios has been very good at home this season with a 2.83 ERA. Toronto is 8-2 in his last 10 overall starts. Berrios has given up only one run this month in 12 1/3 innings.

The Padres are 20-27 on the road and have Yu Darvish going for them. Darvish has been quite mediocre this season posting a 6-6 record with a 4.85 ERA. He's pitched worse on the road where his ERA is 5.52. Darvish has permitted 18 runs during his past 27 1/3 innings.

The price is right to back the Blue Jays at home here.

Bye, bye Arizona.

The slipping Diamondbacks, losers of 10 of their last 14 games and four in a row, have it rough again here.

Arizona faces the Braves and All-Star pitcher Bryce Elder. Both the Braves and Elder are off bad performances. So the Diamondbacks can't expect any mercy.

The Diamondbacks are starting Zach Davies, who has surrendered seven runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. Davies has a 6.37 ERA. He's prone to the long ball having yielded 52 homers the past three seasons.

The Braves lead the majors in homers, while ranking No. 2 in runs and batting average. The Braves have smacked at least one home run in 28 of their last 29 games.

So I see this as a kill spot for the Braves. Of the Braves' last 11 victories, 10 have been by more than one run.

It may seem strange at first glance to see the Orioles favored against the Dodgers. But that's definitely the case in this matchup.

The Orioles have the third-highest winning percentage in baseball at .613. The Dodgers' winning percentage is .581.

Baltimore is 10 games above .500 at home and starting one of the most underrated pitchers in the league, Tyler Wells. He's backed by All-Star relievers Yannier Cano and Felix Bautista. Wells has allowed fewer than earned runs in 12 of his 17 starts this year.

The Dodgers are starting Michael Grove, who is 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA, in what could shape up to be a bullpen game for the Dodgers. LA ranks 22nd in bullpen ERA at 4.31.

I find this total to be too high given how bad these offenses are.

The Tigers rank in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS.

The Royals rank among the bottom-three in runs, homers and OPS. Kansas City has been held to four or fewer runs in eight of its last 10 games.

Detroit is starting Matt Manning, who has made three starts since he was injured back on April 11. He has a 3.12 ERA in those three starts, not allowing a home run. Manning didn't give up a hit in 6 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays during his last start on June 8.

Lyles is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league, but he's been better lately with a 4.24 ERA in his last three starts.

Note the start time. It's a rare 4 p.m. home start for Anaheim because this is the Sunday Night ESPN game. That's when the shadows are at their worst at Angel Stadium. That makes it extremely rough on the hitters for a couple of hours so a 5-inning Under total could be warranted, too.

The oddsmakers opened this total at 9 with juice to the Over. But marketplace activity has moved the total to double-digits, giving it extra value considering the odd start time and what a disadvantage it is for the hitter's.

Those playing Over no doubt are considering the mediocre starting pitching matchup of Christian Javier versus Tyler Anderson and that the Angels beat the Astros, 13-12, in a slugfest on Saturday night.

This pitching matchup, though, is built into the line, which the oddsmaker thought should be 9. Javier is a decent middle-to-back-end starter. Anderson is better at home where he's 2-0 with a 4.94 ERA.

Houston's bullpen experienced a rare meltdown last night. The Astros have one of the deepest relief staffs. They rank eighth in lowest bullpen ERA. The Angels have an All-Star closer in Carlos Estevez.

There are a number of key batters who are out with injuries. The Astros don't have Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. The Angels are minus Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury. The underrated Drury has the second-most RBI's on the Angels.

Other key hitters could get rested with this being a Sunday game.

The Yankees are batting a league-low .219 when they haven't had Aaron Judge, who remains out with a toe injury.

But New York hasn't been playing at Coors Field, nor getting to face Connor Seabold, like they will today.

Seabold is 1-6 with a 6.65 ERA. He probably shouldn't be in a big league rotation, nor will he be in one much longer if he doesn't improve his current form. Seabold is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 9.88 ERA during this span. Colorado's bullpen ranks 27th in ERA.

The Yankees don't need Judge to produce a lot of runs in this one.

The Rockies rank in the top-six in many offensive categories when playing at home, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. They are averaging 6.3 runs in their last six home games.

The Yankees are into the bottom of their rotation pitching Clarke Schmidt, who is 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA. Schmidt's road ERA is even worse at 5.18.

Corbin Burnes looked like his Cy Young Award-winning self on Friday. He shut out the Reds for six innings while giving up just two hits and two walks. Burnes struck out 13 in Milwaukee's 1-0 victory.

It takes a lot to shut out the Reds in Cincinnati.

Now, though, the story is much different. The Reds, who rank seventh in runs, drop down to face Freddy Peralta.

Peralta is a disappointing 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA. Peralta has been at his worst on the road where he's 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA. Peralta is not in good form either with a 5.17 ERA in his last three starts.

The Brewers hit left-handers much worse than righties and they are going against southpaw Andrew Abbott, who is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Abbott is at his best at home where his ERA is 1.83. Abbott has 48 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings. The Brewers strike out at the fourth highest rate.

Milwaukee also is batting just .228 versus southpaws, which ranks second-to-last. The Brewers also are 28th in slugging percentage against lefties and 26th in OPS.

Even with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, the Angels shouldn't be laying nearly this high of a price against the Astros. 

Down injured Mike Trout, the Angels are 1-9 in their last 10 games. The Astros are 8-4 in their last dozen games.

Ohtani last pitched 10 days ago after he was removed because of a blister on his pitching hand. Is Ohtani fully healed? Even if he is, the Angels are terrible without Trout and Ohtani is 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA in two starts versus Houston this season. 

Houston is pitching rookie J.B. France, who has been solid with a 7-4 record and 3.32 ERA. France has a 1.95 road ERA. France also is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts.

Just what is so dominant about the Yankees? Nothing. They are just two games above .500 on the road, rank 28th in the majors in batting at .231 and aren't nearly the same team minus injured Aaron Judge.

Yet the Yankees are massive favorites at Coors Field.

The Rockies are much more competitive at home. They rank in the top-six offensively in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS when playing at home.

Yes, the pitching matchup on paper heavily favors the Yankees. But there is more than meets the eye here with Carlos Rodon facing Austin Gomber. Rodon is making only his second start of the season. He's still feeling his way. Rodon made one previous start at Coors Field in his career and he was roughed up for six runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Gomber is pitching the best he has all season going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.

The Mets have been a major disappointment, but they have Justin Verlander going and the Dodgers are not the powerhouse of a year ago.
 
Verlander has been dominant at home with a 2.19 ERA. He's been sharp, too, with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts. Verlander is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in three regular-season career starts versus the Dodgers.

Dodgers starter Julio Urias is having a disappointing season with a 4.76 ERA. He's not in good current form unlike Verlander with a 9.75 ERA in his last three starts. Urias has struggled on the road, too, with an 8.44 away ERA. 

Urias has a 5.02 career ERA versus the Mets in five appearances, including three starts.

This series is a battle for first place in the NL Central. But it's hard to take the Reds fully seriously. The reason why? Graham Ashcraft.

Ashcraft gets the start here for Cincinnati and he's not very good. The Reds have trotted him out for 16 starts this season. Ashcraft's record is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA. His ERA at home is 7.95. Ashcraft has made four career starts versus Milwaukee and is 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA. He last faced the Brewers on June 3 and was rocked for 10 earned runs on nine hits in four innings.

The Brewers are going with their ace, Corbin Burnes. He is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 career appearances versus the Reds. Burnes isn't having a Cy Young Award-caliber season like before, but he's still a far, far better pitcher than Ashcraft.

So the short lay price on the Brewers makes them a worthy investment.

The Under has cashed in 13 of the last 16 baseball All-Star Games. That strong 81 percent history is a factor why early money has come on the Under. 

There's a huge pitching mismatch here not reflected in the line where White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is only a slight home favorite against Cardinals lefty Steven Matz.

The White Sox play better at home and they hit better against lefties where they have above average statistics in batting average and slugging percentage versus southpaws.

Matz is 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA. He's pitched his way out of St. Louis' starting rotation. This is Matz's first start since May 24.

Matz has been at his worst on the road going 0-3 with a 7.14 ERA.

Giolito is 3-2 at home with a 2.43 ERA. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts spanning 19 innings.

I easily can envision the Royals mailing this one it going against Shane Bieber and this being the final game before All-Star break.

The Royals have lost six in a row - all by three runs or more.

The Guardians have outscored the Royals, 19-7, in winning the first three games of this series. The Royals are 12-34 on the road this season.

Ryan Yarbrough will be making his first start for Kansas City since May 7 after he was struck on the head by a batted ball. The Royals' bullpen has the second-highest ERA at 5.14. The Guardians have the second-lowest bullpen ERA at 3.11.

The Mariners have surprised the Astros in Houston winning the first two games of this series by the lopsided margin of 15-2.

Look for that nonsense to end today. Houston is 12-2 the past 14 times after dropping the first two games of a series. The Astros also are 10-1 following a home loss.

The Astros have the stronger offense and better bullpen. They also hold a big starting pitching edge. Seattle is going with rookie Bryan Woo against Framber Valdez, who has a 2.49 ERA and has dominated the Mariners during his career. Valdez is 5-0 versus Seattle with a 1.94 ERA in nine career appearances.

The buy sign is on for the Mets in an underdog spot with Justin Verlander on the hill.

The Mets have picked themselves off the floor to win their last five games. Verlander hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts spanning 12 innings. The right-hander figures to go at least six innings. The Mets are 25-4 when they have a starter go at least six innings.

San Diego is 2-7 the past nine times facing a righty starter.

Yu Darvish gets the call for San Diego. He'll be making his first start since June 21 having been sidelined by the flu. Darvish is not having a good season at 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA. That ERA soars to 7.71 in his last three starts where he's allowed 14 runs on 20 hits and seven walks in 16 1/3 innings.

In a battle of two of the more disappointing teams in baseball, I want the home underdog White Sox going for me here with Dylan Cease on the mound.

After a slow start, Cease has shown more of his ace form. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Cease has 55 strikeouts in his last 39 innings.

The White Sox are facing southpaw Jordan Montgomery. The White Sox are above average in batting average and slugging percentage against lefties. Montgomery has been pitching better, but at this price I'd rather have Cease going for me.

The Cardinals have lost 22 of the past 30 times in the opening game of a series.

Carlos Rodon is ready to make his long-awaited season debut for the Yankees. The Yankees are excited and so is Rodon. I see Rodon doing well.

The Cubs are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They still could be missing Dansby Swanson, who has been out with a heel injury.

Rodon posted a 0.84 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings spanning three rehab appearances in the minors. Rodon was 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA for the Giants last season in 31 starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career starts at Yankee Stadium.

Rodon has the luxury of having a deep Yankee bullpen behind him. The Yankees are tied for having the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors.

Best yet, the Yankees get to face Jameson Taillon, who pitched for them the previous two seasons. Taillon has been a major disappointment for the Cubs with a 6.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He's in bad form, too, with a 7.63 ERA in his last three starts.

The Cardinals and Marlins have switched the script so far this season. It's the Marlins who are 14 games above .500 while the Cardinals have matched a season-low 16 games below .500 after blowing a ninth inning lead against Miami last night.

The Marlins would be on an eight-game win streak if you discount their games against the Braves. St. Louis is 2-6 in its last eight games.

Now the Cardinals get to face Eury Perez for the first time. Perez had pitched 21 scoreless innings and had an ERA of 1.34 before running into the Braves this past Saturday. Atlanta clobbered him. No shame, though, in that. The Braves are the most powerful team in baseball ranking first in homers and OPS and second in runs and batting average.

The Cardinals are going with Jack Flaherty, a one-time ace reduced to mediocrity with a 4.60 ERA having been dealt low by shoulder issues. The Cardinals have a bullpen that can not be counted on.

Only the Braves have shown more offense lately than the hot-hitting Reds. Cincinnati is averaging 6.6 runs in its last 17 games. The Reds have homered in 19 straight games.

Look for the Reds to continue their onslaught against the Nationals in hot, muggy weather conditions in Washington D.C.

Mackenzie Gore, 4-7 with a 4.48 ERA, gets the start following his worst outing of the season. The lefty gave up seven runs on six hits and three walks in just 2 2/3 innings against the Phillies this past Saturday.

The Reds have gone Over 14 of the last 19 times facing a southpaw starter. Gore doesn't figure to get fielding or bullpen help. The Nationals rank in the bottom-three in fielding and relief pitching ERA.

The Nationals, who rank seventh in batting average, should contribute to this Over facing rookie Brandon Williamson, who has a 5.56 ERA and 1.40 WHIP during his first nine big league starts. The Reds' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating.

It's official now. The Angels are the most snake bit team in the majors. The Angels face a hot pitcher down Mike Trout, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rendon and perhaps Shohei Ohtani, who suffered a blister injury that caused his removal from Tuesday's loss to the Padres.

San Diego finally could be getting untracked looking for its fourth win in five games.

Seth Lugo gets the start for San Diego. He's produced a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts.

Contrast this with Angels starter, Patrick Sandoval, who had a horrible June posting a 7.11 ERA in five starts.

The Padres are averaging 7.6 runs in their last five games.

Look for double-digit runs to be scored in this matchup. Both the Rockies and Astros have been swinging hot bats and they are going against bad starting pitchers here. The Rockies' bullpen has the second-highest ERA in baseball at 5.03 and the Astros' bullpen has been heavily overworked.

Colorado is averaging 6.2 runs in its last five games. The Rockies draw righthander Brandon Bielak, who has failed to impress during several short stints with the Astros. Bielak is up from the minors. He has a 4.37 ERA on the season. Bielak made three June starts for Houston and had a 6.61 ERA in those outings. The Rockies are tied for first for highest batting average against right-handed pitching at .266.

The Over has cashed nine of the last 10 times the Rockies have gone against a righty starter.

The Astros should do plenty of damage against Colorado starter Kyle Freeland and a dreadful Rockies bullpen. Houston is averaging seven runs per game during its last nine games. Freeland is 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA and an opponent's OPS of .932 during his last eight starts. Freeland has been roughed up for seven homers during his last 39 innings in this span.

Domingo German is coming off a perfect game and pitching at home. Yet it's the Orioles who opened as a slight road favorite.

Surprised?

I'm not. I'm on the Orioles.

It's not just a case of fading German off his perfect game, which came against the A's this past Wednesday in Oakland. The Orioles have lost five fewer games than the Yankees this season. New York is 11-13 since losing reigning AL MLVP Aaron Judge to a toe injury.

I also believe Orioles starter Tyler Wells is better than German. Wells is way below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer during his last six starts. Wells has recorded at least six strikeouts in eight of his last nine games and has a 0.88 WHIP.

German, despite his perfect game, is 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA. The spot isn't good for the Yankees returning home after six straight road games while playing their fourth game in three days having had to play a doubleheader against the Cardinals this past Saturday.

A strong wind blowing out to right field, a pitching matchup of Luke Weaver versus Jake Irvin plus two tired bullpens puts me on the Over. 

Reds starter Luke Weaver has yet to show he can overcome his previous arm injuries. His ERA is 6.96 and he has looked terrible in his previous three starts with a 9.95 ERA during this span. 

The Nationals are averaging just a tick below five runs a game during their last seven games. Surprisingly, only four teams have a higher batting average than Washington. 

Irving is 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA. The rookie is 0-3 at home with a 5.28 ERA. 

The Reds are sixth in the majors in runs. They are averaging 6.6 runs during their last 14 games. 

Justin Verlander just may have provided the much needed spark for an underachieving Mets team with his Saturday pitching game against the Giants.

The Giants haven't been setting the baseball world on fire either lately losing five of their last nine games.

I like the spot for the Mets here with David Peterson going against San Francisco's Ross Stripling.

Neither pitcher has good season numbers. Peterson, however, is off pitching six scoreless innings against the Brewers this past Tuesday. He has a rested bullpen behind him. The Giants are averaging just 2.1 runs in their last six games.

Stripling has made 10 pitching appearances for the Giants. They are 2-8 in those games. Stripling missed six weeks with a back injury. This is his first start since May 17. He might not be around for long.

The Yankees are nine games above .500. The Cardinals are 14 games below .500.

The Yankees have Gerrit Cole going against Jordan Montgomery.

The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the majors by a considerable margin at 2.80. The Cardinals' bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom-10.

Yet this game is priced near the pick range. That's tremendous value on Cole and the Yankees.

Cole is 8-1 with a 2.78 ERA. He's amazingly solid with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, a 2.70 road ERA and a 2.77 day time ERA.

Montgomery, who pitched for the Yankees from 2017 to 2022, has a 4.14 home ERA. The Cardinals are 3-11 in his last 14 starts.

If it weren't for the A's, the 24-59 Royals would have the worst record in baseball.

The Royals, though, are off a rare victory against a strong team. They got past the Dodgers, 6-4, on Saturday. Don't look for a repeat.

The Dodgers are 47-20 following a loss. They won by multiple runs the following game after each of their past three losses. Kansas City is 15-36 following a victory.

LA starter Tony Gonsolin should encounter little resistance against a Royals attack that ranks in the bottom-five in runs, batting average, homers and OPS. Gonsolin has a 2.16 road ERA.

The Royals are going with Brady Singer, who has a 5.88 ERA. I don't see Singer doing well against a Dodgers offense that ranks in the top-four in runs, homers and OPS.

The Brewers are running short on quality relief pitchers. They also are going against crafty, veteran lefty Rich Hill.

Yes, Hill is way over the hill. But the Brewers can't hit lefties. Milwaukee is 10-15 versus southpaws. The Brewers are last in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS against lefty pitching.

Milwaukee starter Colin Rea has an ERA worse than Hill's at 4.57. Rea's daytime ERA is 5.20.

The Pirates have been swinging hot bats averaging 7.4 runs in their last five games.

The Braves have the best record in the National League. They just whipped the Marlins, 16-4, at home on Friday.

But too little respect is being given to the Marlins for today's game with a pitching matchup of Eury Perez versus Charlie Morton.

The Marlins have the third-best record in the National League. They would be the leader in two of baseball's six divisions.

Prior to Friday's loss, the Marlins had won seven consecutive road games.

Perez is 5-1 with a 1.34 ERA. He is 3-0 with a 0.60 ERA in day games, which this matchup is. Perez hasn't been scored upon during his last three starts spanning 21 innings.

Atlanta leads the majors in homers, Perez, however, has only surrendered two homers in his last eight starts.

The 39-year-old Morton has a 4.74 home ERA.

Shane McClanahan says he feels good and is ready to go. That's enough for me to back McClanahan and the Rays at a fair price against the Mariners.

Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball at 56-28 and McClanahan is the Rays' best pitcher if not the best pitcher in the league. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts. McClanahan last pitched on June 22 against the Royals, but was pulled after 3 2/3 innings because of back tightness. He said he's fine now and eager to make this appearance. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Seattle has lost four of its last five games, dropping three games below .500. The Mariners are 7-21 the last 28 times they've faced a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.

The Mariners rank 27th in batting average and 24th in OPS. The Rays, on the other hand, have a lethal combination of power and speed. They rank No. 3 in homers and first in stolen bases. Tampa Bay also is second in runs and third in OPS.

The Rays are going to be a difficult challenge for rookie Bryce Miller, who has a 3.88 ERA and was shelled by the Yankees and Rangers during two of his last five starts.

Opponents have figured out Dodgers rookie starter Bobby Miller. Since posting a 0.78 ERA through his first four starts, Miller has permitted 13 runs during his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings against the Giants and Astros. His ERA for his last two starts is 12.10.

Getting a plus price on the run line and given the toughest situational circumstances for the Dodgers, I'll make a pizza bet on the Royals. I have to take 1 1/2 runs, but Kansas City could spring the outright upset.

Morale is good right now for the Royals after they came from behind to upset the Guardians at home on Thursday.

The Dodgers just finished a three-game road trip against the Rockies. LA's Thursday game against Colorado didn't finish until very late at night because of a long rain delay.

The Royals were going to go with Jordan Lyles. He was scratched, though, due to illness. I wouldn't be involved with the Royals if Lyles was on the mound. But now Kansas City has a wild-card starter in rookie Alec Marsh, who will be making his big league debut.

Marsh is a big strikeout pitcher and one of Kansas City's top prospects. Marsh fanned 75 batters in 62 1/3 innings during his minor league starts this season. The Dodgers won't know what to expect.

Adam Wainwright is planning to retire following this season. He's been a great pitcher. I just wish he would have retired before this year because he's embarrassing his legacy.

The 41-year-old Wainwright has just one quality start in his last nine outings. His home ERA is 7.03. His ERA during his last three starts is 7.80.

The Astros are the better team. They get the check marks, too, when it comes to starting pitchers with J.P. France opposing Wainwright and in the bullpen.

The rookie France has been reliable. He has a 3.08 ERA in four starts this month.

The Astros' lineup received a needed jolt with the return of Jose Altuve. Meanwhile the Cardinals could be minus Nolan Arenado, who left Wednesday's game because of back tightness.

Miami is playing well. But I don't see the Marlins sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway Park in a pitching matchup of lefty Jesus Luzardo versus Brayan Bello.

The Red Sox rank fourth in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching.

Bello is emerging as one of the better pitchers in the American League. He has a 2.45 ERA during his last 10 starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his past three starts.

The Yankees won't mind seeing the A's move to Las Vegas. The Yankees fare horribly in Oakland. They are 5-14 in their last 19 games at Oakland's Alameda County Coliseum after losing there on Tuesday.

The Yankees are a power team. However, Oakland is a huge pitcher's park. The Yankees rely on Aaron Judge, but he's out. The Yankees haven't been good against lefty starters particularly on the road. They face southpaw J.P. Sears and he's been highly effective during seven of his last eight starts.

New York is pitching Domingo German. He's been terrible during his past two starts.

So I don't mind holding my nose and backing the home underdog A's here.

Let's get into specifics starting with Sears. He's hiding below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his last eight starts. Opponents are batting just .199 against him during this span.

The Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 road games versus a lefty starter. They are hitting only .221 against southpaws, which ranks 28th.

New York doesn't command the same respect minus Judge. The Yankees are 7-11 since losing Judge to a toe injury. The Yankees are averaging a mere 2.3 runs in their last nine games.

German is going through a brutal two-game stretch having surrendered 15 earned runs in his last two outings spanning just 5 1/3 innings. He's allowed 15 hits, four walks and five homers in this time frame going against the Mariners and Red Sox. German has permitted at least one homer in each of his last five starts.

The Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 games. The good news about that is you can now buy low on Houston.

The 42-37 Astros should not be an underdog to the 33-45 Cardinals in a pitching matchup of Christian Javier against Miles Mikolas.

Javier is 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Cardinals have never faced him. 

Mikolas is 4-5 with a 4.23 ERA. He is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA in his past three starts. Mikolas has a 10.80 career ERA versus Houston in two starts.
The Cardinals beat the Astros on Tuesday, but still might not have their sea legs after having played a weekend series against the Cubs in London.

It' an added bonus for Houston if Jose Altuve returns to the lineup. 

The Over has cashed in each of Luke Weaver's last four starts. It's not unusual considering the Reds are an above average offensive team and Weaver has yet to regain any semblance of his pre-injury form.

Weaver has been bad now for five straight years. He's 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Weaver has been a disaster this month giving up 20 runs in 16 2/3 innings. That translates to a 10.80 ERA.

The Orioles rank in the top 10 in runs and OPS. Baltimore's Camden Yards is one of the best hitting parks.

Baltimore is starting Kyle Gibson, who is the definition of mediocre. He has a 4.30 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and is not in good current form having surrendered eight runs across nine innings during his past two starts going against the Cubs and Mariners.

Cincinnati ranks in the top-11 in runs, batting average and OPS. The Reds have scored at least five runs in 11 of their last 14 games.

The Phillies are a hot road team and they have a hot pitcher going. Both teams were idle on Monday. The Cubs, though, flew in from London where they played the Cardinals during the weekend. So jet lag could work against them.

All of this puts me on the Phillies as an action play since as of early Tuesday morning the Cubs had not formally announced their starting pitcher. Jameson Taillon is the projected starter, which would be another plus for Philadelphia. Taillon has been terrible with a 2-5 record and 6.71 ERA.

The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine road games, averaging 6.6 runs and posting an .843 OPS during this span. They are looking for their seventh consecutive away victory.

After a slow start recovering from an elbow strain, Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez has been brilliant in his last five starts with a 1.38 ERA.

I'm looking for the Rangers to bounce back in a big way at home after losing to the Tigers on Monday.

The pitching matchup is right-hander Matt Manning versus southpaw Martin Perez.

Manning will be making his first start since breaking his foot back on April 11. The Rangers rank in the top three against righties in many of the major offensive categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

Perez has been brilliant at home with a 3-1 record and 1.71 ERA. The Tigers have a bottom-four offense.

Each of the Rangers' last eight wins have been by more than one run.

Given their talent, the Cardinals could be baseball's biggest underachieving team at 32-45. Along with the Riddle of the Sphinx, Stonehenge and the Bermuda Triangle it is one of the great mysteries of the world why Oliver Marmol remains manager of the Cardinals.

I'm not going to look away from this gift horse. The Astros have Framber Valdez, perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the league, going against the Cardinals. Losers of six of their last seven home games, the Cardinals could be suffering from jet lag having just played the Cubs in London during the weekend.

Valdez has the second-lowest ERA in the majors behind only Shane McClanahan at 2.27. Valdez is in top form, too, with a 4-1 record and 1.50 ERA in his last six starts. Valdez has made 15 starts this season. He has surrendered two or fewer runs in 11 of those games. The Cardinals have never faced him.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery is in line to start for St. Louis. The Cardinals are 2-11 in his last 13 starts. He is 0-1 with a 4.38 ERA in five career starts versus Houston. The Astros are 12-8 versus southpaw starters.

This is an action play for me just in case Montgomery doesn't start.

Don't expect the Angels to score 25 runs on Monday like they did against the Rockies on Saturday. Don't even expect the Angels to score four runs against Dylan Cease and the White Sox.

Cease has been showing signs of regaining his dominance with a 2.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in his last three starts spanning 17 1/3 innings.

The Angels go from playing at Coors Field - the premier hitter's park in the majors - to their pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium.

If you toss out that freakish 25-1 Angels victory two days ago at Coors, the Angels have scored only seven runs in their last four games. That's a 1.7 average.

The White Sox have scored four or fewer runs in eight of their last 10 games. I don't expect them to reach four runs either facing a below-the-radar Reid Detmers and a rested Angels bullpen.

Don't look at Detmers' season record of 1-5 and 4.02 ERA. Detmers is pitching the best of his three-year big league career. He just shut out the Dodgers - a top-five offense - on two hits with eight strikeouts and one walk in seven innings this past Tuesday at Angel Stadium. Detmers is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 24 strikeouts in his past three starts spanning 18 2/3 innings.

The White Sox have never faced Detmers, another plus for Detmers. He might also catch the White Sox missing Tim Anderson and Yasmani Grandal. Anderson has a sore shoulder while Grandal left Sunday's game with a bruised jaw.

I priced this game much higher, so I'm on the Giants. San Francisco is rolling winning 12 of its last 13 games.

I trust Giants starter Anthony DeScalafani more than Arizona's Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.31 ERA.

San Francisco's offense is underrated. The Giants rank in the top 10 in a number of categories including, runs, homers, on base percentage and slugging percentage.

The Diamondbacks have lost 23 of their last 28 road games in San Francisco.

Cleveland should remember Corbin Burnes. The last time Burnes faced the Guardians in Cleveland he combined with Josh Hader to throw a no-hitter. That was two seasons ago.

Burnes faces the Guardians today and the price is right to back him. Burnes hasn't performed at his Cy Young Award level of the past couple of seasons. But he's still darn effective with four straight quality road starts and a 1.15 season WHIP.

The Guardians are last in homers, 27th in runs and have the lowest rate of hard-hit balls. Burnes is backed by elite closer Devin Williams, who is rested.

Cleveland starter Aaron Civale has a 2.67 ERA. However, that hides Civale's current form - which is not good. Civale has given up seven walks and three homers during his past two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. This was against the A's and Padres. Oakland is last in runs, batting average and OPS. San Diego has a below average offense, too.

The Brewers had outscored the Guardians by 26 runs in winning four straight against them until losing, 4-2, on Saturday.

Just twice since May 28 have the Tigers won consecutive games. They nipped the Twins, 3-2, on Saturday. I don't see Detroit beating Minnesota again today in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Michael Lorenzen.

The Twins have given up an average of just two runs during their last four games. Ober is an underrated pitcher with a 2.80 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He faces a weak-hitting Tigers lineup that is 29th in runs and OPS and 28th in homers.

Lorenzen has a 4.00 ERA on the season. During his past three starts, Lorenzen has a 6.27 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

I see this as a kill spot for the Blue Jays after they lost, 5-4, to the A's on Friday at home. Oakland had lost its past eight games.

The Blue Jays have much better hitters and own a huge pitching edge in a matchup of rookie Hogan Harris versus Jose Berrios.

Harris has been unimpressive with a 4.45 ERA.

Berrios got lit up by the Marlins in Miami during his last start. Prior to that, however, Berrios had permitted only four earned runs in his past five starts spanning 32 1/3 innings.

Berrios has pitched much better in Toronto where he's 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA. His day time ERA is 1.56. The A's have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games.

The Mets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost 10 of their last 14 games. The buy sign is on here for the Mets because Max Scherzer gets the start.

In Max we trust.

Scherzer got back on track in his last start, holding the Astros to one run on four hits in eight innings while striking out eight and allowing only one walk. The Mets easily won that game, 11-1.

This could be a bullpen game for the Phillies starting Cristopher Sanchez. He's made just two appearances failing to reach five innings either time. Sanchez had a 5.63 ERA in 40 innings with the Phillies last season.

Despite Friday's loss to the Phillies, the Mets still have defeated Philadelphia in 17 of the past 21 meetings.

On the surface, it looks like the Angels-Rockies will combine for at least a dozen runs in a pitching matchup of lefties Patrick Sandoval against Kyle Freeland.

Dig deeper, though, and you find Under to be the right play.

Both teams were idle Thursday so the bullpens are rested. Then there's the weather. The forecast is for wind to be blowing in at 9-to-10 mph.

The Angels have a cluster injury problem in the infield. Out are Anthony Rendon, Gio Urshela and Zach Neto. That puts Luis Rengifo and Andrew Velazquez into the lineup. Rengifo is batting just .209. Velazquez has only 16 at bats this season. He batted .196 last season in 322 at bats.

The Angels enter this game having been shut out in their last two games.

Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He's fared much better there than on the road. Freeland had a 3.19 home ERA this year. He has a 2.25 ERA against the Angels in two previous starts. The Under is 12-2-2 during the last 16 interleague games the Angels have gone against a southpaw starter.

Sandoval is coming off seven shutout innings of the Royals last Friday. The Rockies have never faced him giving Sandoval the element of surprise.

Colorado is one of the weakest hitting teams against southpaws ranking 29th in OPS, 28th in slugging percentage and 26th in batting average.

The Under has cashed the past six times the Rockies have gone against a lefty starter.

Seattle is struggling on the road. Seattle struggles at Yankee Stadium. Seattle is struggling to score runs.

So the price is right to ride the Yankees as they look to sweep this three-game series having beaten George Kirby and Luis Castillo the past two days.

Mariners starter Bryan Woo is a drop down from Kirby and Castillo. Woo is a high strikeout pitcher, but he has a 7.30 ERA in his three starts this season.

Seattle is 3-12 in its last 15 road games. New York has dominated the Mariners at Yankee Stadium, beating them 14 of the past 18 times there.

Yankees starter Domingo German has been pitching better. He's 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. The Yankees have a deep bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors.

The Mariners have scored more than three runs only once in their last six games. They are averaging just 2.5 runs during this period.

Remember when the Pirates opened the season going 20-9?

I don't either.

Pittsburgh is back to its usual bottom feeding ways. The Pirates are 14-30 since then. They are the coldest team in baseball with nine straight losses.

Miami is 22-15 at home and starting Braxton Garret, who has given up two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The Pirates have scored just 11 runs in their last seven games.

Right-hander Mitch Keller gets the start for Pittsburgh. Keller has cooled off, too, after a promising start. He has a 6.14 ERA during his last five starts. As a staff, the Pirates have a 5.54 ERA this month.

The Marlins are 7-1 the past eight times they've faced a righty at home.

The Giants have won nine in a row, including the first two games of this series. But they are tempting fate. They won the series opener in extra innings and then nipped San Diego, 4-3, last night in the ninth inning when elite closer Josh Hader walked in the winning run.

Now the Giants are going the bullpen route with Ryan Walker serving as the opener of what will be a parade of relievers.

I'll take Yu Darvish and Hader on the backend knowing he won't lack motivation.

The Padres have stranded runners all season. That's continued in this series with San Diego leaving 18 baserunners in 19 innings.

I see that getting turned around here while Darvish provides the Padres a strong starting pitching edge.

I respect the Dodgers' lineup. I don't respect Michael Grove, their starting pitcher today, and their bullpen. LA relievers have the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.01.

Grove returns from the minors to make his seventh start for the Dodgers. He has yet to produce a quality start. Grove is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA.

The Dodgers will have to deal with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who gets the start here. He's 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA.

LA edged the Angels, 2-0, last night behind Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers have lost the past six times following a victory.

The Twins are reeling. Fortunately they have Sonny Gray on the mound.

Gray has a 1.96 ERA in eight home starts this season. He's surrendered just one home run in 76 innings.

Minnesota is the better defensive team and has a lower bullpen ERA than Boston.

Garrett Whitlock draws the start for Boston. He's been pitching better, but he's at his worst when pitching on the road at night. His away ERA is 5.31. His night ERA is 5.24.

So look for the Twins to find their way here thanks in large part to Gray.