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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
08-18-18	Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9.5		7-5	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
Some pitchers just aren't good on the road. That's certainly been the case this year for Miami's Wei-Yin Chen. He has a 10.27 away ERA. Opponents are batting .350 against him on the road. The Marlins' bullpen has imploded so Chen can't expect much help there. The Marlins have surrendered 38 runs in their last five games, an average of 7.6 runs. The Nationals are averaging 5.2 runs per game in their last seven contests. They've seen Chen twice this season. Chen has a 6.17 ERA versus Washington this year. The Marlins could do damage, too, facing rookie Jefry Rodriguez, a late fill-in for Tommy Milone. Ted Barrett is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 68 percent of the time this season in the 22 games Barrett has been behind the plate.
08-17-18	Giants v. Reds -115		1-2	Win	100	8 h 59 m	Show
The Reds aren't very good. We know that. But the Giants are 27-35 on the road and have a starting pitching disadvantage here. Yet the Giants opened as a favorite. I say the wrong team is favored. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani is pitching his finest ball. He's given up just one run during his past two starts spanning 14 innings. He has an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. A big key for DeSlafani is learning to become a pitcher and not just a thrower. He's done an excellent job of mixing his pitches in his last two starts. At first I wasn't going to get involved in this game. But that changed when Dereck Rodriguez was scratched and Casey Kelly was named as his replacement. Rodriguez landed on the DL with a hamstring strain caused during that ridiculous altercation this past Tuesday in the Giants-Dodgers game when Yasiel Puig and Nick Hundley went at it causing a bench-clearing incident. Kelly isn't big-league starting material. He had a 4.78 ERA and 1.42 WHIP at Triple-A Sacramento this season. He has pitched just 6 1/3 innings in relief for the Giants this season. The Reds should have an excellent scouting report on him because Pat Kelly, Casey's father, is a bench coach for the Reds. The Giants are 9-19 in their last 28 away games when going against a foe with a losing home record. They also have dropped the past four games played in Cincinnati.
08-16-18	Diamondbacks -123 v. Padres	Top	5-1	Win	100	20 h 18 m	Show
This price is low enough to back the Diamondbacks, who have 20 fewer losses than the rebuilding Padres. Arizona has won 21 of its last 31 road games. The Diamondbacks come in with a rested bullpen having been idle on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks have also won 35 of the past 52 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. Arizona starter Clay Buchholz has been very good going 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA. The righthander holds an edge against Jacob Nix, who is making only his second big league start. San Diego is 7-20 in its last 27 home games. The Padres have dropped 11 of their last 12 home games when meeting a foe with a winning road mark.
08-15-18	Pirates v. Twins UNDER 8.5	Top	4-6	Loss	-114	4 h 41 m	Show
Chris Archer has the potential to dominate a weak Twins offense. Jose Berrios has dominated at Target Field going 8-2 with a 2.95 ERA. The Twins had been held to four runs or fewer in seven straight eight games until scoring five runs last night. The Pirates are averaging three runs per game in their last three games. Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's one of the top Under umps in baseball. The Under has cashed in 68 percent of his last 71 games behind the plate.
08-14-18	Nationals v. Cardinals -103	Top	4-6	Win	100	18 h 34 m	Show
The Cardinals have won six in a row. The Nationals are imploding losing their second straight game on a walkoff homer. Their bullpen is shot and the team has serious chemistry issues. They are seven games out of first in the NL East. St. Louis is 17-9 since Mike Shildt replaced MIke Matheny. The price is right to back the Cardinals again while fading the Nationals. St. Louis ranks sixth in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS versus lefty starters. The Cardinals are 19-15 against southpaws and draw lefty Gio Gonzalez, who is at his worst pitching on the road and at night. That's the case here. Gonzalez is 3-5 with a 4.26 ERA on the road. He's 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA in night games. Washington is 2-8 during his past 10 starts. St. Louis, which is a season-high nine games abovbe .500, is going with righthander John Gant. He's coming off a 7-1 victory against the Marlins where he gave up two hits, one walk and one run with four strikeouts in six innings. He threw just 63 pitches in that effort so he should be strong. The Nationals have lost 16 of their last 22 games when going against a righty starter.
08-13-18	Nationals v. Cardinals -128	Top	6-7	Win	100	17 h 3 m	Show
The rejuvenated Cardinals have made a move since naming bench coach Mike Shildt to relace Mike Matheny as manager. The Cardinals have won five consecutive series and sit just two games in back of the Brewers for the second wild card spot in the National League. St. Louis is 16-9 under Shildt and have its best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals catch the Nationals traveling after playing in the lone night game on Sunday. Washington could still be reeling from blowing a two-out 3-0 ninth inning lead in a 4-3 road loss to the Cubs last night. The Nationals lost when closer Ryan Madson gave up a grand slam homer to pinch-hitter David Bote. Madson said after the game that he is suffering from back pain and it has affected his pitching. So there's a good chance Madson isn't going to be available. The Nationals already are down their two best relievers with Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera both injured and unavailable. This puts tremendous pressure on Nationals starter Tommy Milone, who is a journeyman and coming off a bad start. Milone had a 4.19 ERA in the minors before getting a call-up for the Nationals. Milone was rocked for seven runs on 10 hits - including three homers - in six innings during his past start, an 8-3 home loss to the Braves this past Wednesday. Washington has lost 18 of its last 26 road games. The Nationals are down mentally, have a weak fill-in starter going and a shot bullpen. Mikolas has emerged as an elite pitcher with a 12-3 record and 2.74 ERA. Mikolas has held six of his past seven opponents to two runs or fewer. He has given up three or fewer runs in nine consecutive games. The Nationals have never faced him. Advantage Mikolas. Washington has struggled at Busch Stadium, too, losing 23 of the last 31 times there.
08-12-18	Nationals -125 v. Cubs		3-4	Loss	-125	8 h 44 m	Show
I consider Max Scherzer the best pitcher in the National League, if not all of baseball. He's in great form, too, having allowed five earned runs in his last four starts spanning 27 innings. Scherzer has a 35-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. It's a bargain to get him at such a low lay price. Scherzer's task is made easier with the Cubs' best hitter, Kris Bryant, out with a shoulder injury. The Nationals have won a staggering 71 percent of Scherzer's last 72 starts. Cubs starter Cole Hamels is past his prime. Hamels is making his third start for Chicago. The 34-year-old has been sharp in his first two outings for the Cubs, but those games were against the Pirates and Royals. I don't see Hamels stepping up enough to match Scherzer.
08-12-18	Pirates v. Giants -106	Top	3-4	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
It's way past thinking Dereck Rodriguez is some novelty item being the son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez. The younger Rodriguez very well could win Rookie of the Year honors in the National League. Rodriguez and the Giants are very tough at AT&T Park. Rodriguez is 3-0 at home with a 1.99 ERA. He has given up two earned runs or fewer in his last eight starts. San Francisco is 33-26 at home this season and 7-2 in Rodriguez's last nine starts. Opposing Rodriguez is Joe Musgrove, who is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA in day games this season. The price is right to back Rodriguez and the Giants.
08-11-18	Diamondbacks -138 v. Reds		3-6	Loss	-138	20 h 36 m	Show
Robbie Ray is having his problems at Chase Field, but he's been very strong on the road with a 2.57 ERA in seven away starts. Ray, a lefty, is holding road foes to a .195 batting average. Arizona has won 19 of its last 27 road games. Cincinnati is 8-20 during its past 28 home games versus a southpaw starter. Reds starter Matt Harvey has been terrible since the All-Star break with a 10.66 ERA in three starts. Harvey hasn't finished six innings during any of his past six starts
08-10-18	A's -109 v. Angels		3-4	Loss	-109	8 h 13 m	Show
The A's are 6-1 in their last seven games and are a much better team than the Angels. Southpaw Brett Anderson is in good form for Oakland, while Angels starter Felix Pena is not. Pena is 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA. The A's hold a vastly superior bullpen. The Angels have lost 17 of the past 24 times when facing a lefty starter. They have been without Mike Trout, who is questionable here.
08-10-18	Indians -138 v. White Sox		0-1	Loss	-138	19 h 50 m	Show
The rebuilding White Sox are on pace to lose 103 games. They are 21-36 at home and likely to lose to the Indians. Cleveland is 8-2 versus Chicago this season winning those games by an average of `nearly four runs per game. I'm a fan of Indians rookie starter Shane Bieber. He's 6-2 with 58 strikeouts in 57 innings. The White Sox have the disadvantage of never having gone against him. Cleveland is 7-3 in Bieber's starts. Opposing Bieber is southpaw Carlos Rodon. The Indians are 18-12 versus lefty starters. The Indians have already seen Rodon twice this season. Rodon has a 4.76 ERA in his two starts this year against the Indians. The White Sox were idle on Thursday. That's not necessarily a good thing, though, as Chicago is 13-38 following an off day.
08-10-18	Mariners v. Astros -1.5	Top	5-2	Loss	-105	19 h 49 m	Show
Even beating Justin Verlander on Thursday night, the Mariners are just 3-8 in their last 11 road games. I see the Astros rebounding strong tonight. So does the oddsmaker making Gerrit Cole a monster favorite against Mike Leake. The Astros should bury the Mariners in this spot so I'm laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to cut down on the heavy juice. Houston has won by two or more runs in nine of its last 11 victories. Cole has established himself as an elite pitcher since coming to the Astros. Houstin is 17-6 in Cole's last 23 starts. Cole has surrendered two or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts. Leake hasn't won since June 23. He has a 4.28 ERA in his last seven starts, which include a 5-2 loss to the Astros on July 31. So this is a quick turnaround for the Astros to face Leake again. Star shortsop Carlos Correa is expected to come off the DL on Friday to play for the Astros, which would be huge since Houston remains without injured second baseman Jose Altuve.
08-09-18	Dodgers v. Rockies +123	Top	8-5	Loss	-100	19 h 24 m	Show
The Rockies are very tough at Coors Field where they have won 17 of the past 22 times. They have a favorable spot, too, with LA having played late Wednesday night against the A's in Oakland while the Rockies played a home day game Wednesday. Dodger starter Ross Stripling hasn't been the same pitcher he was before the All-Star Game. He has a 9.35 ERA in two starts following All-Star break. Colorado starter Tyler Anderson has a respectable 3.64 ERA at Coors this season. The Dodgers have scored only 10 runs during their last five games for an average of two runs per game.
08-08-18	Red Sox -139 v. Blue Jays	Top	10-5	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
The Red Sox dominate baseball with an 80-34 record and they dominate the Blue Jays beating them 24 of the past 33 times, including going 11-3 versus them this season. Boston has had little difficulty either at Rogers Centre winning 16 of the past 20 times there. You usually can't go wrong backing the Red Sox especially when they aren't overinflated which is the case here. The Blue Jays are in a bad state with rumors that their manager John Gibbons will be let go. The pitching matchup is Brian Johnson versus Mike Hauschild and Boston owns a huge bullpen edge. Johnson has a 2.57 ERA in seven starts this season. The Blue Jays picked up Hauschild after the Astros cut him on July 30. Hauschild had a 4.88 ERA in 19 minor legue starts this season pitching for Houston's Triple A team. He has a 6.43 big league ERA in five appearances. He certainly doesn't project to have success against a potent Boston lineup that leads the majors in runs and batting average.
08-07-18	Padres v. Brewers -1.5	Top	11-5	Loss	-100	18 h 20 m	Show
I see the Brewers taking care of business at home in a big way against the rebuilding Padres, losers of nine of their last 11 games. Milwaukee has won 11 of its last 16 home games and gotten stronger offensively and in the bullpen at the trade deadline. The Brewers are going with their most consistent starter here, righthander Chase Anderson. He's pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.08 ERA in his last eight starts. Anderson has given up up two or fewer runs in each of his starts during this eight-game span. San Diego is 7-20 the past 27 times going against a righty starter. The Padres also have dropped 17 of their last 25 away matchups. Clayton Richard will be on the hill for San Diego. He has been terrible away from Petco Park with a 6.10 road ERA. Richard is coming off a July in which he was 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA in six starts. The Padres gutted their bullpen at the trade deadline and Richard has only gone at least six innings in one of his last five starts.
08-06-18	Cubs v. Royals OVER 9	Top	3-1	Loss	-110	14 h 7 m	Show
The Cubs rank in the top four in both runs and batting average. They are going to an American League ballpark where the DH is in play. Chicago also gets to face one of the worst starters, Jake Junis, and a terrible Royals bullpen. Junis hasn't been good in more than two months. His ERA since June is 7.33. He has surrendered 26 homers in 20 starts this season. The Royals' offense has picked up. Kansas City is averaging five runs per game during its last five games and has scored four or more runs in 17 of its past 21 games. Chicago starter Cole Hamels is well past his prime. This will be his second start with the Cubs. Obviously pumped up, he pitched well in his first start for Chicago against the Pirates. I don't think he will pitch nearly as well this time around. Before his last start, Hamels had yielded 21 earned runs in his previous four outings spanning 17 innings. The Cubs' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating and their closer, Brandon Morrow, is on the DL. The conditions are good, too, to produce a lot of runs with high humidity and the wind blowing out at 10-12 mph.
08-05-18	Yankees +121 v. Red Sox	Top	4-5	Loss	-100	19 h 2 m	Show
The Red Sox are going for a four-game sweep of the Yankees. I don't see the prideful Yankees getting swept on national television in a pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka versus southpaw David Price. Tanaka hasn't allowed a run during his past two starts spanning 15 innings. He's given up just six hits with 17 strikeouts during this span. This was part of a great July for Tanaka, who posted a 1.75 ERA in his four July starts. He is 6-0 on the road this season with the Yankees winning eight of his last 11 away matchups. New York is 20-8 in Tanaka's last 28 overall starts. The Red Sox are down three key infielders - Rafael Devers, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia. The Yankees have won 24 of their 31 games versus lefty starters this year. The Yankees have taken care of Price in their two meetings against him. Price has yielded 12 runs in only 4 1/3 innings, including surrendering a staggering six homers.
08-05-18	Braves -119 v. Mets		5-4	Win	100	12 h 23 m	Show
I think this is a cheap price to lay with the much superior Braves. Yes, the Mets defeated Atlanta, 3-0 on Saturday, but that was with Zach Wheeler. Now the Mets drop down to rookie Corey Oswalt, a fill-in for injured Steven Matz. The Braves had outscored the Mets, 27-5, at Citi Field in going 5-0 before yesterday's game. Atlanta is 11-4 versus the Mets this season. The Mets are in clear rebuild mode and definitely are fade material whenever Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Wheeler aren't pitching. Atlanta starter Julio Teheran has a good history against the Mets with with a 9-6 lifetime record and 2.33 ERA. He's held the Mets to two runs on 11 hits in 21 innings this season for an 0.86 ERA. The Mets rank 30th in batting average. They haven't scored more than four runs in their last eight games.
08-04-18	Angels v. Indians -1.5	Top	0-3	Win	100	19 h 28 m	Show
The buy sign is back on for Corey Kluber, who was dealing with a right knee injury going into All-Star break. Kluber was shaky in his first outing following the All-Star Game, but returned to his dominant ways during his last start holding the Tigers to one run in 7 1/3 innings this past Sunday. The oddsmaker is sold on Kluber being back healthy with a huge price. So the way to go around this is taking the Indians minus 1 1/2 on the run line. Cleveland's past six victories have all been by at least two runs. Kluber will catch a break if superstar Mike Trout has to sit out a third straight game because of a bruised right wrist. The Angels are going with rookie Felix Pena. He was bombed during his last start giving up seven earned runs while retiring only one batter against Seattle this past Sunday. The Angels have lost in 20 of their last 28 road games. The Indians are 65-31 in their last 96 home games.
08-03-18	Tigers +168 v. A's	Top	0-1	Loss	-100	21 h 1 m	Show
Brett Anderson should not be this high of a favorite. Even against the Tigers. Detroit is underrated especially against southpaws like Anderson. The Tigers are 7-5 in their last 12 games and are 16-13 against lefties on the season. It's not a fluke the Tigers are three games above .500 versus southpaws. They have the highest batting average in the majors when facing left-handed starting pitching at .274. Anderson has made just one home start for Oakland this year. That was against the Astros on May 7 and it was a disaster. The A's lost 16-2 as Anderson was shelled for nine runs, seven of which were earned, on 10 hits in just three innings. Anderson has a 5.46 lifetime ERA against the Tigers in seven games, including six starts. Anderson's ERA on the season is 5.55, which is considerably higher than Tigers starter Blaine Hardy, whose ERA is 3.61. Hardy's career ERA versus the A's is 3.14. He earned a victory against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday allowing one run on four hits in five innings. The Tigers shouldn't lack for motivation having been swept by Oakland at home in June.
08-02-18	Giants +158 v. Diamondbacks	Top	8-1	Win	158	21 h 13 m	Show
This sure looks like a 4-3 type of game so I'm very interested in taking a huge 'dog price with Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. Arizona starter Zack Greinke is having a strong season. But his ERA isn't that much lower than Bumgarner's at 2.96 compared to 3.06. So this really comes down to a value play. Bumgarner has a 2.44 ERA in his last seven starts, holding batters to a .191 average in this span. The Giants enter this game with their confidence up having swept the Padres on the road.
08-01-18	Cubs -112 v. Pirates	Top	9-2	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
Nick Kingham and his 4.80 ERA isn't likely to be in the Pirates' starting rotation too much longer with Chris Archer coming on board. I'm going to lay a short road price with the better team, Cubs, and what I see as a rejuvenated Cole Hamels. Hamels gets a repreive coming to the Cubs from the 46-63 Rangers. Hamels had a bad July. He said his arm is fine. His problem was mechanics, which he said have been straighten out now. Hamels should do better in the National League. The four-time All-Star is past his prime, but he still knows how to pitch and his fastball still has zip as evidenced by 114 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings. Hamels last faced the Pirates two years ago. He has a 1.22 career ERA in five starts versus Pittsburgh. Kingham is off a bad start against the lowly Mets where he yielded six runs in three-plus innings on seven hits and four walks during a 12-6 home loss this past Thursday.
07-31-18	Rangers v. Diamondbacks -1.5	Top	0-6	Win	120	10 h 34 m	Show
I see this as a kill spot for the Diamondbacks so I'm fine laying 1 1/2 runs with them. Texas has a little win streak going, but the Rangers aren't going to keep that up. They are pitching Bartolo Colon and their shaky bullpen just got much worse with closer Keone Kela traded to the Pirates. Kela was by far their best relief pitcher. The Rangers' focus may not all be there with this being the final day of the trade deadline. Texas also returns home after this game. Colon is an ageless wonder being 45 and fat. However, he's hitting the wall with a 5.96 ERA in his last four starts. The Diamondbacks have Zack Godley going. He pitches much better at Chase Field. Godley usually gets solid run support, too. He's among the wins leaders with 11. Arizona fortified its lineup trding for Eduardo Escobar and with Steven Souza Jr. getting healthy.
07-30-18	Astros -108 v. Mariners	Top	0-2	Loss	-108	21 h 27 m	Show
The Astros head into this important AL West Division series in a bad state of mind. Houston has lost four games in a row for the first time this season. Perhaps the Astros took the Rangers, who are last in the division, too lightly and were swept by them at home. Whatever. They certainly won't do that against the Mariners and they have a strong pitcher going to make sure of that in Gerrit Cole. Sometimes it is better to go on the road. That could be the case here. Houston is 36-16 in its last 52 away games. The Astros have won in eight of their past last nine games in Seattle. Cole is 10-2 with a 2.54 ERA. He trumps James Paxton, who has thrown less than an inning during the last three weeks because of a back problems.
07-29-18	Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9	Top	8-5	Loss	-115	13 h 44 m	Show
There is a reason why the Under has cashed in 11 of Marco Gonzales' last 13 starts. That reason is he's a good pitcher. The Angels have found that out first-hand as Gonzales is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts versus Los Angeles this season. The Mariners have dominant late inning relief to back Gonzales. Angels starter Felix Pena has a 2.73 ERA in six starts this year. The Under has cashed during his past four starts. The Mariners have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their last 13 games. Both pitchers should be helped by this rare afternoon start time in LA. Late afternoon shadows are known to bother hitters at Angels Stadium. Note, too, that Lance Barksdale is slated to be the home plate umpire. That's strong for the Under. The Under has cashed 63 percent of the time during the last four years Barksdale has been behind the plate spanning a sampling of 88 games.
07-29-18	Dodgers -138 v. Braves		1-4	Loss	-138	3 h 31 m	Show
I cashed with the Dodgers Saturday and see no reason to get off them today in a matchup of Ross Stripling versus fading Sean Newcomb, who is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA against the Dodgers this season. Newcomb also has a 4.21 ERA in day games. Stripling has a fantastic 114-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He is proving to be one of the Dodgers' most reliable pitchers. LA is 4-0 in his last four outings. The Braves are 5-13 in their last 18 games.
07-28-18	Dodgers -124 v. Braves	Top	5-1	Win	100	19 h 45 m	Show
These teams are going in opposite directions. The Dodgers are 9-4 in their last 13 games and are back to being the team to beat in the National League after acquiring Manny Machado. LA is 21-9 during its past 30 road games. The Braves are 5-12 in their last 17 games. They haven't been competitive during their last three games losing by a combined 15 runs. The pitching matchup is Alex Wood versus Max Fried. Wood has a 2.95 ERA in his last seven starts. He has won his past five decisions. Fried has a 3.92 ERA. He has made only three starts this season and hasn't pitched since July 5 due to a blister. The Braves have a huge gap in their bullpen with closer Arodys Vizcaino on the DL with a shoulder injury.
07-27-18	Rangers v. Astros -1.5	Top	11-2	Loss	-130	19 h 11 m	Show
Yovani Gallardo was a high strikeout solid pitcher for the Brewers during his prime. However, Gallardo is well past his prime now, barely hanging on. The Rangers are the sixth team he is pitching for in the last five years. Gallardo had a 5.42 ERA in 2016. His ERA was 5.72 last year and it is 7.18 this season. The pattern clearly is there. Father time has caught up with him. The Rangers can't bail Gallardo out with their terrible bullpen either. Houston ranks in the top five in runs and batting average. The Astros have a hot Dallas Keuchel going for them, too. Keuchel is 4-0 with a 1.30 ERA in his last four starts spanning 27 2/3 innings. He is 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA during his last seven starts. Houston has dominated at home with Keuchel going 40-18 during his last 58 starts at Minute Maid Park.
07-26-18	Brewers v. Giants -108	Top	7-5	Loss	-108	20 h 12 m	Show
Dereck Rodriguez is a lot more than just the son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez. He's a legitimate rookie-of-the-year candidate. Rodriguez is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA. San Francisco is 7-0 in Rodriguez's last seven appearances. He has a 1.23 ERA during his past five starts. Milwaukee has never faced him giving Rodriguez an edge in surprise. The Brewers are going with veteran journeyman Wade Miley, who has a 3.90 ERA in 11 outings versus the Giants, including 10 starts. Miley has had problems pitching in San Francisco with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts there. The Giants are very tough at home going 31-19 at AT&T Park. The Brewers are just a .500 road club. They have dropped their last six away contests and have had problems historically at AT&T Park losing 16 of the past 21 times there.
07-25-18	Diamondbacks v. Cubs -117		1-2	Win	100	13 h 10 m	Show
Jon Lester has been the Cubs' best pitcher this season. I like him at home laying a short price against a struggling Robbie Ray. Ray was outstanding last year. But the southpaw has yet to rediscover last season's form since coming off the DL. He has a 7.65 ERA in his last four starts. Ray has surrendered seven homers during this four-game span. The Cubs rank in the top four in runs scored and batting average. They are 17-5 the past 22 times facing a southpaw starter. Lester has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his past nine starts. He has a 3.12 home ERA this season despite giving up eight earned runs in his last start at Wrigley Field when a heavy wind was blowing out. That's not going to be the case today. Lester is 7-1 in day games this season. The Cubs usually perform well for Lester having won 74 percent of his last 54 home starts.
07-24-18	Cardinals -111 v. Reds	Top	4-2	Win	100	11 h 37 m	Show
I'm not sure what the Cardinals are going to get from lefty Austin Gomber, who will be making his first big league start here. But I do know that I want no part of Homer Bailey. The 32-year-old Bailey will be making his first big league start since May 28. Bailey is 1-7 with a 6.68 ERA. He's in the argument for worst starter in the league. He wasn't much better in the minors going 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA. Bailey has a terrible history versus St. Louis, too, with a 6-14 record and 5.71 ERA in 25 career starts. The Reds have lost 18 of Bailey's last 22 home starts. This isn't a huge surprise considering Bailey's ERA in his last 17 home starts is 7.61. Being a flyball pitcher at Great American Ballpark isn't a formula for success especially when the pitcher is washed up, which Bailey is. Bailey will have to deal with the hottest hitter in the league, Matt Carpenter. The Cardinals are high on Gomber, who had good metrics in the minors such as a high swing rate.
07-23-18	Padres v. Mets -175	Top	3-2	Loss	-175	1 h 31 m	Show
Huge starting pitching edge. Excellent spot. The Mets have those two key factors going their way here While the Mets were idle yesterday, courtesy of a postponement against the Yankees, the Padres had to play a doubleheader against the Phillies Sunday. As disappointing as the Mets have been, the Padres hold a lower win percentage. The rebuilding Padres have lost 22 of their last 28 games, including seven of their past eight. The Mets are throwing Jacob deGrom, who leads the majors with a 1.68 ERA. deGrom has allowed just one run in his last two starts spanning 16 innings. He has a 1.53 career ERA against the Padres in five starts. deGrom hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during his last 16 starts. San Diego ranks among the bottom four in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers.
07-22-18	Dodgers -124 v. Brewers	Top	11-2	Win	100	6 h 45 m	Show
There are reasons why the Dodgers are road chalk against the Brewers. The two primary ones are they could turn into a superpower with the recent acquistion of Manny Machado and they have the superior starting pitcher going in a matchup of Alex Wood versus Brent Sutter. As an added plus, the Dodgers expect to have Justin Turner back in their lineup today after he had missed five games with a hip injury and have a rested Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers usually respond well to a loss having gone 15-3 the past 18 times following a defeat. They also are 13-3 the past 16 times when playing an above .500 team on the road. Sutter is a No. 5 type starter. He entered the All-Star break with a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts. He holds a 4.87 home ERA and has surrendered a home run in each of his last four starts. The Dodgers lead the NL in homers and now they have Machado, who is tied for ninth in homers in the majors with 24. Sutter last pitched on July 14. Milwaukee is 1-4 the past five times Sutter has pitched with seven or more days rest.
07-21-18	White Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5	Top	5-0	Loss	-110	13 h 25 m	Show
Hope you weren't fooled by Dylan Covey's hot early start. Covey is a bad pitcher and he's been proving it going 0-4 in his last five starts with a 11.70 ERA and 2.25 WHIP during this time frame. Covey hasn't lasted more than five innings during any of these starts, putting the White Sox's horrendous bullpen into longer action. Don't expect Covey to suddenly get better against the Mariners, who have the seventh-highest batting average in the majors. Covey has a career ERA of 8.92 on the road. The White Sox, though, should do damage against Felix Hernandez, making his first start in more than two weeks after being on the DL with back pain. Hernandez is well past his prime. He has allowed more hard hit balls this year than any previous season and has reached the seventh inning only twice in 19 starts. There's a chance the White Sox get back outfielder Avisail Garcia for this game, which would be a plus for the Over. The Over has cashed in 17 of the White Sox's last 25 games for 68 percent.
07-21-18	Giants +115 v. A's		3-4	Loss	-100	12 h 58 m	Show
Oakland is doing well this season. But the A's are just 24-22 at home. They are not some super team and I'm not buying journeyman Trevor Cahill as a favorite against Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner just pitched against the A's right before All-Star break on July 13 and won, 7-1. He gave up one run on three hits in six innings. The odds are strong Bumgarner is going to do his job. Not so with Cahill, who is pitching for his sixth team in the last five years. The A's are 1-4 in Cahill's last five starts. Cahill hasn't been sharp giving up seven earned runs on a combined 15 hits/walks during his last two starts spanning just 8 1 /3 innings. He has close to a 4.00 lifetime ERA in 18 outings against the Giants, including 15 starts. The Giants are expected to have Brandon Belt back for this game after Belt missed Friday's game to be with his wife, who was giving birth. Belt is the Giants' top power hitter leading them in homers and RBI's.
07-20-18	Astros -113 v. Angels	Top	3-1	Win	100	23 h 13 m	Show
The American League is governed by super powers these days. The defending world champion Astros certainly are one of those super powers. They lead the majors with a plus 188 run differential. So anytime I can get a low enough price on the Astros, I'm interested. That's the case here. Southpaw Tyler Skaggs is having an excellent season for the Angels. This is far more of a play on the Astros than a fade on Skaggs. However, Skaggs is trumped by lefty Dallas Keuchel. Not only is Keuchel in excellent form with a 1.35 ERA in three July starts, but the Angels are 9-18 versus lefty starters this season, including losing 16 of their last 21 to them. Keuchel is 10-2 lifetime versus the Angels. The Astros have won in each of Keuchel's last seven overall starts. Houston is proven on the road, too, winning 28 of its last 38 away games.
07-20-18	Twins v. Royals UNDER 9		5-6	Loss	-110	21 h 15 m	Show
A pitching matchup of Kyle Gibson versus Danny Duffy may induce yawns. But it could lead to a sneaky Under play espcially in the first game back for the Twins and Royals following the four-day All-Star break. Gibson doesn't get much respect, but he's been very good on the road with a 2.84 away ERA. Opposing batters are hitting only .197 against him on the road. The Under is 13-4-1 in Gibson's past 18 away starts. Gibson has a 3.22 career ERA versus the Royals in 16 starts. Gibson won't face an easier offense as the Royals are last in the league in runs and homers. Duffy has been terrible for much of the year - until recently. He has surrendered only one earned run in four of his last five starts. Duffy has a strong history, too, against the Twins with a 5-1 record and 2.27 ERA in 19 appearances, including 15 starts. Duffy has a 0.75 ERA in two starts against Minnesota this season. The Twins have a below average offense ranking 22nd in homers and 18th in batting average. The weather conditions are calling for 7-to-9 mph winds blowing in.
07-19-18	Cardinals +143 v. Cubs	Top	6-9	Loss	-100	19 h 50 m	Show
The talent is there for the Cardinals. They just need to wake up. Maybe they have after Mike Matheny was fired this past Saturday. Matheny's relationship with a number of Cardinals had soured. That was a big factor why he was let go. The atmosphere should be better under interim manager Mike Shildt. The Cardinals are 1-0 under Shidt and begin a crucial five-game series with the Cubs today being 7 1/2 games behind the Cubs. The pitching matchup is Carlos Martinez versus Kyle Hendricks. I'm surprised the Cubs opened this high of a favorite. Chicago was hot winning 12 of 15 games leading up to the break. But that could make the Cubs a bit fat and happy since they have now opened a 2 1/2-game lead on the Brewers in the NL Central Division. There's a certain randomness factor involved because each team has been idle for three days. Randomness is a plus when taking a price like this. Martinez pitched extremely well in April, but then he got hurt in May. He wasn't sharp when he returned in June, but lately he has gotten back into an excellent groove surrendering seven earned runs during his last four starts spanning 24 innings. Hendricks is solid, but he's not having a banner year with a 3.92 ERA. He's also not going deep into games having reached the sixth inning only twice in his last nine starts. St. Louis has played better on the road this season than at home going 24-22 in its away games.
07-15-18	Yankees v. Indians -127	Top	2-5	Win	100	10 h 11 m	Show
The early action has been on the Indians and I can see why. Cleveland is 30-19 at home and has Trevor Bauer pitching against Masahiro Tanaka. Bauer finally is getting the due he deserves being named to the All-Star team while Tanaka remains overrated. I rank Bauer as among the six best pitchers in the American League. Tanaka is nowhere near that level. Bauer is in tremendous form with a 1.84 ERA in his last 11 starts. He has an amazing 111-to-20 strikeouts-to-walks ratio during this span of 78 1/3 innings. Bauer isn't cripple-shooting either. Cleveland is 8-3 the past 11 times Bauer has gone against foes with a winning record. Tanaka made his first start this past Tuesday since June 8 having been on the DL with a hamstring injury. He gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings during a 5-4 loss to the Orioles, who have the worst record in the majors. Tanaka's 7-2 record is deceiving. He's unbeaten in five decisions on the road, but his away ERA is 4.91. Tanaka has surrendered 12 homers on the road in 47 2/3 innings. The Indians rank No. 3 in the majors in runs scored and homers. They are an outstanding home team and hold a starting pitch edge justifying this lay price.
07-14-18	Rangers +100 v. Orioles	Top	0-1	Loss	-100	11 h 9 m	Show
Injuries, lack of talent and constant trade rumors about Manny Machado have taken a huge toll on the Orioles. Baltimore has a mind-boggling 26-69 record. The Orioles may already be looking ahead to All-Star break as they have lost 17 of their last 20 games. They have dropped 33 of their first 47 home games and are 1-16 versus AL West opponents. So, yeah, at this price I'll back the Rangers. Texas isn't a good team either, but the Rangers still are 15 games better than the Orioles. The Rangers have the superior bullpen, average a run more per game than the Orioles and have a veteran edge in the starting pitching matchup with Martin Perez going against rookie Yefry Ramirez. Perez has been sidelined since Aparil 29 because of an elbow injury. He was sharp, though, in rehab going 2-0 with a 0.52 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings. Texas has won 11 of his last 16 starts. Ramirez has made three big league starts. They have not gone well. He's 0-3 with a 3.93 ERA. The Orioles' bullpen is hurting minus injuired setup relievers, Darren O'Day and Richard Bleier. Led by closer Keone Kela, the Rangers' bullpen is having a strong month. Kela is 23-for-23 in save opportunities this season.
07-14-18	Rays v. Twins -134		19-6	Loss	-134	7 h 0 m	Show
The Rays are one of those good at home teams (26-17) bad on the road (22-29) clubs. They are struggling in Minnesota right now losing the first two games at Target Field in this series. Tampa Bay has now lost 16 of its past 21 away games. Expect the Rays to drop another road game here in a pitching matchup of Chris Archer versus Jose Berrios. On paper the pitching matchup appears even. It is not. Berrios is a rising star who has been outstanding at home with a 7-2 mark, 2.49 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Berrios is in excellent current form, too, with a 2.70 ERA during his last seven overall starts. Minnesota is 18-3 the past 21 times Berrios has pitched at Target Field, a winning percentage of 86 percent! Archer isn't the pitcher right now of seasons past. He's 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and is struggling since coming off the DL. He gave up three runs in only 3 1/3 innings versus the Tigers in his last start this past Monday.
07-13-18	Phillies v. Marlins +135	Top	2-0	Loss	-100	19 h 48 m	Show
There is far more than meets the eye in this matchup making the Marlins a highly attractive home underdog. The Phillies are feeling fat and happy being the surprise leaders of the NL East and coming off a 5-4 road win against the Orioles on Thursday. The Phillies had to play the Mets in New York on Wednesday. So this marks their third different road venue in three days. Miami was idle on Thursday. The rested Marlins are proving they aren't the bottom feeder many envisioned going into the season. Miami is a respectable 34-40 in its last 74 games. The Marlins are 6-1 the past seven times they've faced a righty starter at home. They draw righthanded Jake Arrieta here. Arrieta isn't close to being the elite pitcher he was during his Cy Young Award-winning 2015 season. He's given up three or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts. He's 3-4 on the road with a 4.64 ERA. Philadelphia is 2-5 during Arrieta's past seven away starts. Arrieta has struggled during his two starts against the Marlins this season with a 9.39 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. The Marlins get back their best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto. He had missed the past three games because of paternity leave. While Arrieta has struggled on the road, Miami pitcher southpaw Wei-Yin Chen has thrived at home with a 1.89 ERA in six starts at Marlins Park. The Marlins have won 12 of Chen's last 16 home starts. Chen is the first lefty starter the Phillies have faced since July 1, a span of 10 games. They have seen only two southpaw starters since June 15. The Phillies are 1-5 the last six times they've gone against a lefty starter.
07-12-18	Rays -115 v. Twins		1-5	Loss	-115	20 h 28 m	Show
Thanks to a five-game win streak, the Rays are a season-best four games above .500. They have won 14 of their last 18 games. The price is low enough to ride them with their best pitcher, Blake Snell. Minnesota is enjoying a homestand. The Twins just concluded successful home series against the the Orioles and Royals. Those are the two worst teams in baseball. Now they step up against the hot Rays. Minnesota has lost the past seven times whe meeting an opponent with a winning record. Snell has become a monster this year. He is second in the American League in wins and ERA. Snell is 8-1 in his past 10 starts, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of those outings. Snell has given up only two runs in his past 28 2/3 innings. Twins starter Kyle Gibson is 3-6 with a 3.59 ERA. Gibson has been solid this season. His record should be better, but he's been unlucky. However, he's several levels below Snell. Gibson also has a poor history versus the Rays with a 1-5 mark and 6.81 ERA. Gibson squared off against Snell back in April and the Rays blasted the Twins, 10-1. The Twins are without their main setup guy, Addison Reed, also. Reed was put on the DL because of a triceps injury.
07-12-18	A's v. Astros -1.5	Top	6-4	Loss	-110	13 h 41 m	Show
Playing at home during the day is a great combination for Charlie Morton. He's really only had two bad outings in 18 starts this season. But Morton has especially shined at home where he is 8-1 with a 2.66 ERA and in day games where he is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA. That's the situation he finds himself in on Thursday. Morton is in good form, too, with a 2.87 ERA in his last five starts. He has 45 strikeouts during this time frame in 31 1/3 innings. Trevor Cahill, a journeyman type, comes off the DL for his first start in a month to pitch for Oakland. He's been at his worst on the road with an 0-2 away mark and 5.66 ERA. I like this spot a lot for the Astros coming off a rare home defeat to the A's. Houston has won 49 of its last 70 home games for 70 percent.
07-11-18	Mariners +106 v. Angels	Top	3-0	Win	106	14 h 45 m	Show
The price is right to get involved with the Mariners. Seattle is 10 games better than the Angels in the standings and own both a starting pitcher and bullpen edge on Los Angeles. Marco Gonzalez was touted before the season as a sleeper breakout candidate and he's come through going 9-5 with a 3.64 ERA. The southpaw is back in good form giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 14 innings with a 14-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. The Angels really struggle versus lefties losing 16 of 23 times this season when facing a southpaw starter. Jaime Barria goes for the Angels. He's given up 11 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings. He's allowed 10 walks and four homers during this time frame. The Angels are 0-5 in his last five starts.
07-10-18	Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8.5		1-4	Win	100	14 h 35 m	Show
The Padres play in the best pitcher's stadium in the majors, Petco Park. They also aren't a very good offensive team ranking in the bottom-four in the major categories, including scoring, batting and homers. So it's not a huge surprise the Under is 17-8-1 in San Diego's last 26 games for 68 percent. I see another Under in a pitching matchup of Rich Hill versus rookie lefty Eric Lauer. Hill is rounding into shape. He's given up just three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings with a 15-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has held the Padres to a batting average of .184 in 45 1/3 career innings versus them, averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. I have full confidence Hill will keep the weak-hitting Padres in check. But what about Lauer? Lauer has come on after a rocky beginning to post a 2.76 ERA in his last seven starts. He shut out the Dodgers on seven hits and one walk in six innings when he beat them, 3-0, on May 6 in Monterrey, Mexico. That was his best start. Lauer won't have to worry about Yasiel Puig, who is on the DL. The Under is 22-8-1 (73%) during the Dodgers' past 31 games versus a southpaw starter. Note, too, that Victor Carapazza is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's one of the strongest Under umps in the majors. During the last five years, 60 percent of the games Carapazza has been behind the plate have gone Under at 83-55.
07-10-18	Reds v. Indians -1.5	Top	7-4	Loss	-110	11 h 56 m	Show
I want the Indians going for me after they lost at home to the Reds last night. Since last year's All-Star Game, the Indians have compiled the best home record in the majors at 56-24. The Reds have been playing better but they are far below the Indians and draw Trevor Bauer here. Bauer is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA at Progressive Field this season. He has a 2.05 ERA in his last 10 overall starts with 99 strikeouts in 70 1/3 innings during this span. Cincinnati's Sal Romano and the Reds' overworked bullpen can't match that. Romano has a 5.40 ERA on the year. He did beat the White Sox during his last start this past Wednesday, but still gave up four runs on six hits in five innings.
07-09-18	Cubs v. Giants -117		1-2	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
The Giants are very strong at home - 28-16 on the season, including 16-6 in their last 22 home games - and catch the Cubs flying to the West Coast following an eight-game homestand. The Cubs carry a high bullpen fatigue rating and their starter, Kyle Hendricks, is in a down cycle with a 6.29 ERA in his last seven starts. Chicago is 2-5 in Hendricks' last seven outings. The Giants got their bats going putting up 13 runs against the Cardinals on Sunday. San Francisco starter Andrew Suarez has a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his past five starts.
07-09-18	Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5	Top	3-1	Loss	-126	20 h 29 m	Show
No, you can't have a total open as low as 7 1/2 when Corey Oswalt is one of the starting pitchers. Oswalt has a 7.94 ERA and isn't nearly qualified to be a big league starter at this point of his career, if ever. Note this is the second game of the Phillies-Mets doubleheader. So it's a night game. The wind is projected to be blowing out at 13-14 mph in the evening. There could be fatigue factors, too, for the bullpens since this is the second game of the day. Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola is outstanding, but the Phillies' bullpen is up and down. The Mets failed to score during the weekend, but in their previous four games their offense showed life scoring a combined 22 runs.
07-08-18	Dodgers -122 v. Angels	Top	3-4	Loss	-122	17 h 41 m	Show
The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 17 away games. They are the superior team here and have a pitching matchup edge plus I prefer their bullpen especially with closer Kenley Jansen. Southpaw Alex Wood began the year slow, but has come on for the Dodgers. He's going for his fifth straight winning start. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his last five outings. The Angels have yet to ever face him. Along with their current strong road mark, the Dodgers also have won 19 of their past 26 interleague games. The Dodgers are 18-12 against lefty starters this year. They draw lefty Andrew Heaney, who is up-and-down and frequently injuured. Heaney is healthy now, but not in good form. He's allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. During this time frame, he's surrendered 13 hits, five walks and three homers.
07-08-18	Rockies v. Mariners -133		4-6	Win	100	13 h 55 m	Show
If you can't beat him, join him. That's the way I feel about southpaw Wade LeBlanc. I was fading LeBlanc when the 33-year-old first joined the Mariners. But he's been super going 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 12 starts for the Mariners. Seattle has yet to lose during any of LeBlanc's 13 previous starts at Safeco Field. The Mariners are 14-3 overall in LeBlanc's starts. The Rockies are 5-16 in their past 21 interleague games when facing a lefty starter. I don't see the Rockies pulling off a rare road sweep with Antonio Senzatela on the mound. He has a 4.44 ERA. The Mariners have outfield Mitch Haniger back in the lineup and sparkplug Dee Gordon is expected to start, too, today after not starting on Saturday due to a minor hip injury.
07-08-18	Reds v. Cubs -147		5-6	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
Jim Riggleman has turned around the Reds. Cincinnati had won 14 of their last 18 games until blowing a five-run lead in losing 8-7 to the Cubs on Saturday. That loss is a momentum shifter, though. I see the rejuvenated Cubs beating the Reds again today behind their top pitcher, Jon Lester. The Cubs have won 75 percent of Lester's last 52 home starts. Lester is 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA in eight home starts this season. Reds starter Luis Castillo showed intriguing potential two seasons ago. But he's regressed this season with a 5.53 ERA and only five quality outings in 18 starts this year. The price is worth laying to get Lester in this pitching mismatch.
07-07-18	Red Sox -1.5 v. Royals		15-4	Win	100	11 h 42 m	Show
The key isn't if the Red Sox will beat the Royals. They most likely will. The key is getting away from laying heavy juice and making the Red Sox work on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. That should work, too. The Red Sox have won 11 of their last 12 victories by more than one run. This includes winning their last three games by an average of five runs. The Royals have lost seven in a row. David Price should have no problem handling them. Kansas City ranks last in runs and homers. Price is 4-0 career-wise versus Kansas City with a 2.13 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 1.56 in three appearances at Kauffman Stadium. Rookie Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals. He has an excellent 2.09 ERA pitching mostly out of the bullpen. But I'm not sold on him based in part on some of his metrics. I have him due for serious regression. Keller is facing the No. 1 scoring team in the majors here.
07-07-18	Cardinals -110 v. Giants	Top	3-2	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
If there is a buy sign on Jeff Samardzija I'm certainly missing it. Samardzija was terrible before going on the DL - a 6.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP - due to pectoral and shoulder injuries and he was bad while recovering in the minors with a 5.29 ERA. This is his first big league start since May 29. San Francisco is 0-5 in his last five starts. The Giants' bullpen is down closer Hunter Strickland and could get extensive work here. Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez was rusty and shaky when he first returned from the DL. But Martinez is a near-elite pitcher and has looked good in his last two starts holding the Indians and Diamondbacks to a combined four runs in 12 innings. Martinez is pitching on his normal four days rest. St. Louis is 9-2 the past 11 times that has happened. The Cardinals' lineup is bolstered by the return of power-hitting middle infielder Paul DeJong and closer Bud Norris, who was cleared to pitch today after being out the past two days with a finger injury.
07-06-18	Braves v. Brewers UNDER 8.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-139	17 h 20 m	Show
You have to believe pitching is going to dominate here. The Braves are starting Mike Foltynewicz, who is having a breakout season with a 2.02 ERA. Foltynewicz is in tremendous form with a 0.87 ERA in his last nine starts, striking out 64 in 52 innings during this span. Foltynewicz has dominated the Brewers, too, with a career ERA of 1.48 versus them in four starts. The Braves' bullpen is bolstered very much with the return of closer Arodys Vizcaino from the DL. The Brewers are going with exciting rookie Freddy Peralta, who has a 2.28 ERA in five starts. Peralta has been particularly brilliant in his last three starts compiling a 1.50 ERA with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 22-to-four in this span of 18 innings. The Brewers have one of the better bullpens in baseball.
07-05-18	Angels v. Mariners -124	Top	1-4	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
The Angels ended the Mariners' eight-game win streak with a 7-4 win on Wednesday. I don't see the Angels beating Seattle a second straight day in a pitching matchup of rookie Jaime Barria versus lefty Marco Gonzales. Barria started fast, but the league has caught up to him. The Angels, though, have too many pitching injuries to take Barria out of the starting rotation. Barria is pitching today in place of Tyler Skaggs, who went on the DL Wednesday with a right adductor strain. Barria has a 5.65 ERA in his last three starts. The Angels are 0-4 during his past four starts. The Mariners just saw Barria on June 12 scoring three runs on eight hits in five innings against him. The Mariners have won 21 of their last 27 home games. Gonzales has been a solid middle-to-bottom-of-the-rotation starter. He's given up two runs or fewer in six of his last nine starts. At 26 he is in his prime and is further along in his pitching career than the 21-year-old Barria. Seattle has a far better bullpen than the Angels, too. The Angels are 6-15 on the season versus lefties. They have lost 10 of the past 11 times on the road when going against a southpaw starter.
07-04-18	Giants v. Rockies UNDER 11.5		0-1	Win	100	12 h 25 m	Show
Both starting pitchers, Andrew Suarez and Tyler Anderson, are in good form. Suarez has held five of his last seven opponents to two runs or fewer. Anderson is coming off an eight-inning shutout of the Dodgers this past Friday. The Under has cashed in six of his last eight home starts. The Giants have gone under the total the past four times they've faced a southpaw starter. The Giants are not a good road club. They have failed to score more than four runs in eight of their last 11 road contests. Coors Field is the premier offensive park in the majors. But some of this is mitigated by the weather forecast, which is calling for winds of 10-14 mph to be blowing in.
07-04-18	Giants v. Rockies -120		0-1	Win	100	12 h 21 m	Show
The Giants are a different team on the road. A bad team. San Francisco is nine games under .500 on the road and have lost 68 percent of their past 52 games at Coors Field, including the first two of this series by a combined margin of 13-3. Nolan Arenado is on fire with 21 RBI's in his last 14 games, including nine homers, and Charlie Blackmon has started to heat up. Those are Colorado's key cogs. I don't see rookie Andrew Suarez and a Giants bullpen lacking a closer being able to stop the Rockies in Coors. Southpaw Tyler Anderson is coming off a brilliant performance shutting out the Dodgers for eight innings while allowing only four hits in a 3-1 victory this past Friday. The Dodgers have scored 31 runs in their last three games so Anderson's outing wasn't a fluke. Anderson is backed by two stud late-inning relievers, Adam Ottavino and Wade Davis. The Giants have lost nine of their last 13 games when facing a lefty starter.
07-04-18	Pirates v. Dodgers -1.5		4-6	Win	100	7 h 51 m	Show
This is a give-up spot in a give-up season for the Pirates. The Dodgers are averaging more than 10 runs per game during their last three games. The Pirates are short on starters and their bullpen is spent. So the Pirates are going with Clay Holmes. He's thrown all of two innings for the Pirates this season. This will be his first start. He hasn't pitched in 10 days and isn't expected to go deep into the game leaving the Pirates' wretched middle relief to try to stem the tide while in serious fatigue mode. Rich Hill is capable of elite starts - when he's healthy. Hill is healthy now, at least for the time being. He has a 2.55 ERA in three starts since coming off the DL.
07-04-18	Astros -154 v. Rangers		5-4	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
The price has come down enough where I can get involved and not feel ripped off. The Astros halted a three-game losing streak by defeating the Rangers, 5-3, at Globe Life Park. I felt so strong about an Astros victory in that game that I laid 1 1/2 runs with them on the run line. The price isn't large enough to have to do that in this game. I'm surprised it isn't. Houston is 25 games above .500 while the Rangers are 10 games under .500. The Astros have dominated the Rangers at Globe Life Park winning 12 of the last 13 times there, including the past seven. Not only does Houston have a big offensive edge, but also a major pitching advantage in a matchup of Gerrit Cole versus Mike Minor. Cole has thrived since coming to the Astros. He's 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA this season. Cole has dominated the Rangers going 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in four career starts, including a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings this season. Minor, by contrast, is 0-1 with a 5.74 ERA in three starts versus Houston this season and has a 5.06 career ERA against the Astros in nine appearances, including six starts.
07-03-18	Indians v. Royals +180		6-4	Loss	-100	10 h 39 m	Show
Maybe the Indians will go off on another huge win streak like last season. But for now they are not a super power. Not with a 19-24 road record. So I'm going to throw a peanut out there and take a shot at this monster plus price with the home Royals and a somewhat rejuvenated Danny Duffy against a rookie starter. Duffy has been a major disappointment. But lately he has been pitching much better as evidenced by his 3-1 mark and 2.68 ERA in his last seven starts. He has given up one run or fewer in five of those seven starts with Kansas City going 5-2 in those games. The Indians' outfield depth is down with Lonnie Chisenhall suffering a calf injury and not expected to play. Shane Bieber has been fantastic for Cleveland going 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA. This will be just his fifth big league start, though.
07-03-18	Astros -1.5 v. Rangers	Top	5-3	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
Look for the Astros to come out fired-up in this kill spot. Houston has lost three in a row. The Astros were ilde on Monday so they will be rested and ready here. Houston has won 26 of its last 36 away matchups and is 10-4 versus the Rangers this season. Dallas Keuchel goes for Houston. He has better peripherals than his 4.22 ERA shows. He ranks first in the American League in groundball-to-fly ball ratio - a key when pitching at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park - and ranks third in the AL in soft contact percentage. Long-time minor leaguer Austin Bibens-Dirkx is going for the Rangers. I don't see the 33-year-old Bibens-Dirkx faring well against an Astros lineup that has the third-highest batting average in the majors and ranks in the top-seven in runs and homers.
07-02-18	Rays v. Marlins +119	Top	2-3	Win	119	20 h 53 m	Show
There are several things to keep in mind about this matchup that go beyond the surface. The first is Tampa Bay being 8-1 in its last nine games. Impressive yes since the Rays compiled this current streak against the Yankees, Nationals and Astros. However, those games all were in Tampa. Now the Rays take to the road where they have lost 11 of the past 13 times. It's a bad spot for the Rays off a 3-2 Sunday win against the Astros and likely to take the lowly Marlins lightly. Miami, though, has a winning record in its last 11 home games. The pitching matchup is Nathan Eovaldi versus Wei-Yin Chen. Eovaldi is coming off a 1-0 victory against the Nationals this past Tuesday in which he allowed just one hit in six innings. Prior to that outing, Eovaldi had given up 16 runs in 23 1/3 innings spanning four starts. Eovaldi is a tease. That's his big league pattern. One great game, three bad ones. The Marlins are familiar with him, too. Eovaldi pitched for Miami from 2012-14. Here is another statistic that is misleading in this instance. Chen has a 6,14 ERA. Yet Miami has won 11 of his last 15 home starts. That's because Chen pitches very well at Marlins Park where he has a 2.30 ERA this season. Сhen is backed by perhaps the most underrated closer in baseball, Kyle Barraclough. He hasn't been scored on during his last 21 appearances spanning 20 2/3 innings. Tampa Bay has scored three runs or fewer in seven of its last 11 games.
07-01-18	Giants v. Diamondbacks -134		9-6	Loss	-134	6 h 9 m	Show
I see Zach Godley getting the better of southpaw Derek Holland. The Diamondbacks are 18-10 versus lefty starters. The Giants have lost 18 of their last 26 road games. Godley has pitched his best at Chase Field, which will be a new experience for Holland, who has never pitched there. Godley has a 2.89 ERA at home this season. The Diamondbacks have provided him with excellent support all year averaging 4.6 runs when Godley pitches. Holland is a fifth-starter type. He holds a 4.24 ERA.
07-01-18	Indians -122 v. A's	Top	15-3	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
I don't see the A's sweeping the Indians. Not with Frankie Montas. The league has figured him out and he has yet to adjust. Montas has a 7,.20 ERA in his last three starts giving up 12 earned runs and 24 hits in 15 innings during this brutal stretch. Cleveland ranks No. 3 in homers and sixth in runs. Mike Clevenger is one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and has a 3.03 ERA on the season. The Indians are not a good road team. But they've had two days to get adjusted to the Oakland Coliseum and have a big starting pitching edge here.
06-30-18	Red Sox -136 v. Yankees	Top	11-0	Win	100	18 h 49 m	Show
The Yankees may win this series against the Red Sox, but they aren't beating Chris Sale today. Sale is the premier lefty in the American League. He's pitching at his highest level, which is saying a lot. Sale is 2-0 in his last three starts with a 1.35 ERA . He has 43 strikeouts in his last four starts spanning 28 innings with opponents batting .155 against him during this time frame. His fastball is being clocked at a season-best 97 mph this month. The Yankees usually fare well versus lefties. But they have difficulty against Sale, who owns a 1.73 career ERA mark in 16 appearances against the Yankees. Sale is at least two levels, if not three levels, above Sonny Gray, who hasn't been good in three years. Gray is having a below average season this year with a 4.93 ERA. He gave up four runs and six hits in 6 2/3 innings during his last start this past Saturday on the road against the Rays in a 4-0 loss. Tampa Bay is 26th in homers and 25th in runs. Boston is first in runs and batting average and second in homers. The Red Sox are 43-18 versus righthanded starters. Gary is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA versus the Red Sox since joining the Yankees. He faced the Red Sox back on April 12 and was blasted for six runs on seven hits while working a season-low three innings.
06-29-18	Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5	Top	3-1	Loss	-100	12 h 49 m	Show
Who is Max Muncy? He has the fourth-most homers in the National League with 17, 10 of which have come this month. The Dodgers have tied their franchise-best in homers for a month with 53 in June. If you discount a 2-1 win this past Monday against the Cubs, the Dodgers are averaging 6.1 runs in their last six games. The Rockies have been raking, too, scoring the second-most runs this month in the National League. The Over is 20-6-2 (77 percent) in Colorado's last 28 games. I don't see a pitching matchup of Tyler Anderson versus Rich Hill slowing down these offenses. Anderson has a 4.62 ERA. This isn't just a Coors Field thing either as his road ERA is 4.08. The Rockies' bullpen has imploded this month with their upper tier relievers looking bad. Colorado's bullpen ERA has nearly an 8.00 ERA so far in June. The 38-year-old Hill can't get into a rhythm because he can never stay healthy. He has a 6.10 home ERA and 5.30 ERA on the season. Opponents have scored three or more runs off him in five of his last seven starts. Hill also has a poor track record against the Rockies going 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA in four career starts. The Over has cashed in seven of Hill's past eight starts.
06-28-18	Angels v. Red Sox -120		2-4	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
The price has come way down so I'm going to fade the marketplace and a lay a short price with the far superior team.. Boston has the best win percentage in baseball. The Red Sox are going for the series sweep. The Angels are reeling, losers of 12 of their last 16 games and five in a row. They have multiple injuries and an unreliable bullpen. They also are going with rookie righthander Jaime Barria. He has pitched respectable, but not as much as the marketplace thinks with this huge drop in price The Red Sox are a monster 42-18 against righthanded starters. They hit righties better than any team. Boston should not be taking the Angels lightly either after nearly blowing a 6-0 lead last night. The early marketplace actitivity was against Boston, too, because the Red Sox are starting fill-in southpaw Brian Johnson. The Angels, though, have lost the last seven times they faced a lefty starter. Johnson is talented enough to give the Red Sox five respectable innings. The Red Sox offense and bullpen can take care of the rest. Boston is averaging eight runs per game in its last six games. The Red Sox have won the last six times they've started Johnson.
06-28-18	Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7	Top	4-0	Loss	-110	11 h 50 m	Show
Zach Greinke has pitched much worse on the road with a 4.94 away ERA this season. His velocity is down. He's been getting away with trick pitches, which the Marlins should be aware of. The Marlins are starting righty Trevor Richards, who has a 4.91 ERA. His ERA is even worse in days games at 5.09. The Over is 11-3-2 the past 16 times the Diamondbacks have gone against a righthanded starter. Tom Hallion is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 68 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the last two years.
06-27-18	Pirates v. Mets -111		5-3	Loss	-111	8 h 39 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Ivan Nova's recent strong pitching. He's always been bad on the road, which is the case again this season with a 5.10 away ERA. Nova has been anything but a slump stopper, too. Pittsburgh is 1-10 the past 11 times Nova has started following a team loss. The Pirates are 1-6 in their last seven games. They have stopped hitting averaging only 2.2 runs in their last eight games. Zach Wheeler has been looking better for the Mets holding three of his last five opponents to two earned runs or fewer.
06-27-18	Mariners v. Orioles OVER 9.5		8-7	Win	100	8 h 33 m	Show
I see these two offenses combining for double-digits with a pitching matchup of Wade LeBlanc versus Alex Cobb, especially with the wind blowing out ot left at 15 mph. LeBlanc is a career journeyman who had been pitching well above his norm with the Mariners. Regression to the norm, though, began to show up in his last start. LeBlanc gave up six runs on 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Red Sox. Cobb is brutal. He's 2-9 with a 6.56 ERA. He has a 6.81 ERA in seven career starts against Seattle. The Orioles have bullpen woes and are down two arms with Darren O'Day and underrated Richard Bleier out. Bleier has the lowest ERA on the team at 1.93. Seattle's two top relief pitchers, Edwin Diaz and Alex Colome, each carry a fatigue rating having both pitched during each of the last two days with Diaz pitching in three of the last four days. Gary Cedarstrom is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 57 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the last two years.
06-26-18	Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5		0-7	Win	100	10 h 35 m	Show
I see this as a kill spot for the Astros after they lost to the Blue Jays with Justin Verlander on the hill Monday. Houston has won eight of its last 10 victories by more than one run. Charlie Morton has become a very good pitcher since joining Houston. He's 9-1 with a 2.74 ERA this season. He owns a 2.77 ERA in two starts versus Toronto this season. The Blue Jays have still lost 10 of their last 14 road games despite last night's stunning win. This could be a bullpen game for the Blue Jays if not a give-up game. They are giving Ryan Borucki his first big league start due to injuries to Aaron Sanchez and Jaime Garica. The Blue Jays' bullpen carries a fatigue rating and is minus suspended closer Roberto Osuna.
06-26-18	Twins -110 v. White Sox	Top	4-8	Loss	-110	10 h 0 m	Show
Lance Lynn is back in good form and healthy. The result has been a 4-1 record and 1.73 ERA during his last six starts. The price is low enough to back Lynn and a rested Twins bullpen against the rebuilding White Sox. Lynn is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in four career starts versus the White Sox. Chicago is going with Renaldo Lopez. He has been one of Chicago's better pitchers, but the White Sox still are 1-5 in his last six starts.Lopez was hit hard in his last outing giving up five runs (four earned) and six hits and four walks in just 4 1/3 innings against the Indians.
06-26-18	Reds v. Braves OVER 9		5-3	Loss	-112	8 h 11 m	Show
Both teams are swinging hot bats. Cincinnati is averaging 7.1 runs in its last eight games, while Atlanta is averaging 6.5 runs in its last six games. This matchup should produce double-digit runs, too. It's a hot muggy night in Atlanta with high humidity. Those conditions favor the hitters. There is a chance of rain, which could turn this into a bullpen game. That would make it ugly as neither team has a strong bullpen especially the Braves minus injured closer Arodys Vizcaino. Matt Harvey goes for Cincinnati. The Mets were right to give up on Harvey, who has a 5.66 ERA on the season and is 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA in 13 career starts against the Braves. Atlanta starter Annibal Sanchez is due for regression. That regression started to come in his last start where he surrendered four runs on five hits and four walks in five innings against Toronto.
06-25-18	Indians -119 v. Cardinals	Top	0-4	Loss	-119	11 h 10 m	Show
The Indians are starting to play up to expectations as one of the superpowers in baseball. Cleveland has won seven in a row with all the victories coming by three or more runs. The price is low enough to get involved with the Indians again in a pitching matchup of Mike Clevinger versus John Gant. Clevinger is in an outstanding form going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 26 strikeouts in his last 21 1/3 innings spanning his past three starts. He rates a strong edge on Gant. The Cardinals have lost in Gant's last five starts. Gant wouldn't be starting if it weren't for an injury to Michael Wacha. Gant has a 6.00 ERA on the season. St. Louis' power is way down this season as the Cardinals rank last in doubles and triples.
06-25-18	Padres v. Rangers UNDER 9.5		4-7	Loss	-108	10 h 21 m	Show
The Padres have scored four or fewer runs in 15 of their last 18 games. They rank in the bottom-five in runs, batting average and homers. It's not just playing half of their games at Petco Park either. They are just a bad offensive team. The Under has cashed in 10 of their past 12 away games. Now San Diego draws the Rangers' best pitcher, Cole Hamels. He has a 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last 10 starts. Hamels has gone six-plus innings, too, during his last eight starts. This means fewer innings for the vulnerable Texas bullpen to get involved. The Under has cashed in 75 percent of Hamels last 21 starts going 15-5-1. The Padres are pitching Joey Lucchesi. The rookie was showing some nice potential before going on the DL with a hip strain. He was not sharp in his return from the DL this past Wednesday. Expect better now that Lucchesi has knocked off some rust. The Rangers have never seen him. Both pitchers should be aided by a wind that will be blowing in at 15-16 mph.
06-24-18	Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9	Top	8-2	Loss	-120	6 h 16 m	Show
Given some of their big name hitting stars, it's surprising the Cardinals and Brewers both rank among the bottom-12 teams in runs scored. On closer inspection, though, maybe it shouldn't be a surprise. St. Louis is getting terrible seasons from a number of players, including Dexter Fowler, Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko. The Cardinals' power is way down as they rank last in the majors in doubles and triples. They also draw the fourth-fewest walks in the National League. The Brewers' problem is they have three dead spots in their lineup - catcher with Manny Pina and the two middle infield positions with Orlando Arcia and Jonathan Villar. Milwaukee has been shut out a major-league high 10 times this season. The Brewers are not a strong clutch hitting team either ranking 24th with runners in scoring position. The scores of this series the past two days have been 2-1 and 3-2. Look for that same type of score in a pitching matchup of Luke Weaver versus Jhoulys Chacin. Weaver hasn't pitched well during his last seven starts compiling a 4.46 ERA. I remain high on him, though. He's a top prospect with high ceiling stuff and metrics that indicate he's due to turn things around. Teams often rest key players on Sunday. The Brewers have already announced that Lorenzo Cain won't play after he was pulled from Saturday's game because of groin tightness. Cain is the Brewers' leading hitter and also their stolen base leader. I wasn't that high on Chacin entering this year. But I have to give him his due. Chacin has been outstanding especially at Miller Park where he's posted a 2.31 ERA in six starts. Chacin is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA on the season holding foes to a .231 batting average. The Brewers have an outstanding bullpen. Their top bullpen arms are fresh meaning they could get three innings from Josh Hader and Corey Knebel if necessary. St. Louis is averaging 2.5 runs its last four games. The roof is going to be open for this game, but weather shouldn't impact the total as the forecast is for clear skies and a slight crosswind. Mike Winters is slated to be the home plate umpire. Winters has had a slight bias to the Over - except when he's been behind the plate on Sunday where the Under has cashed at a mind-boggling 70 percent rate during the past 56 instances.
06-23-18	Tigers v. Indians -1.5	Top	1-4	Win	100	7 h 58 m	Show
The American League is composed of four super powers. Three of those teams are the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox. The Indians are the fourth and they finally are getting into gear winning five in a row. The Indians have won their last five games by an average of 6.3 runs. They've have won their last 10 games by more than one run. So I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs with them at greatly reduced juice in a pitching matchup of Francisco Liriano versus Trevor Bauer. The Tigers have been overacheiving, but they are starting to reach their normal regression. Detroit just doesn't have the pitching and its bottom-eight offense took a big hit with Miguel Cabrera suffering a season-ending biceps injury. Liriano hasn't pitched in four weeks because of a hamstring injury. He's winless in his last five starts. He gave up five runs on six hits, including three homers, and three walks in five innings against the White Sox during his previous start on May 26. This is the Indians' third look already at Liriano, who has a 6.10 ERA versus Clevelnd this year. Bauer entered the majors with a high ceiling and he's living up to it now with a 2.50 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings. He's backed by a rested Cleveland bullpen. Cleveland has dominated Detroit going 35-13 against the Tigers during the last three years, including 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
06-23-18	Rangers v. Twins -130		9-6	Loss	-130	11 h 3 m	Show
The Rangers have won a season-high six games in a row. Look for their streak to end today, though, in this day matchup. I don't see Texas continuing its winning streak pitching washed-up Yovani Gallardo. This will be Gallardo's second start of the season. His first game was this past Sunday against Colorado at home. Gallardo was erratic like he has been for much of the past three seasons giving up five runs on six hits and three walks in five innings. Eddie Rosario returned to the Twins' lineup on Friday and Minnesoa manager Paul Molitor indicated that Eduardo Escobar would be back starting, too, on Saturday. Escobar was limited to a pinch-hitting role on Friday after being hit in the elbow with a pitch on Thursday. Escobar and Rosario are Minnesota's two top hitters. Twins starter Jake Odorizzi has pitched well against all opponents except the Indians this season. If you discount Cleveland, Odorizzi has held 11 of 12 foes to three earned runs or fewer. He also has a strong history against the Rangers going 4-0 against them with a 2.02 ERA in six career starts.
06-22-18	Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5	Top	6-2	Win	100	20 h 39 m	Show
This is too low of a total for a pitching matchup of Clayton Richard versus Chris Stratton and a Giants bullpen that lacks a consistent closer with Hunter Strickland sidelined. Richard has a 4.91 road ERA. His overall statistics have been padded by pitching at Petco Park and drawing the Marlins in two of his last four starts. Miami ranks last in runs. AT&T Park is a pitcher's park, too. However, this is evened out by the weather conditions. The forecast is for wind to be blowing out to left at 15-18 mph. A bad break for Richard, a lefthander. The Giants blasted Richard when they last saw him on May 2 at AT&T Park. San Francisco scored six earned runs off Richard in four innings getting eight hits and drawing four walks. Stratton has a 4.22 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His home ERA is 5.45 this season.
06-21-18	Red Sox -122 v. Twins		9-2	Win	100	12 h 57 m	Show
The Twins are going for a 3-game sweep of the Red Sox here. Boston hasn't been swept in a series all season. I don't see that changing in this matchup. This is a day game. The Red Sox have won 78 percent of their day games this season going 18-5. They also are 26-15 on the road. Minnesota is barely above .500 at home with a 19-17 mark. The pitching matchup is Rick Porcello against Kyle Gibson. Porcello has proven reliable this season, not as good as he was two seasons ago when he went 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA but much better than last year. He is pitching on extra rest, too. Boston is 8-2 the past 10 times Porcello has thrown on five days rest. Porcello has held three of his last four opponents to two earned runs. He has a solid 3.43 ERA in day games. Boston's key bullpen arms are well rested. The Twins are averaging just 2.6 runs in their last six games. Gibson is 0-3 with a 4.78 ERA at Target Field this year. Minnesota is 4-7 in his last 11 starts.
06-20-18	Rays v. Astros -1.5	Top	1-5	Win	100	12 h 26 m	Show
The Rays halted the Astros' 12-game win streak Tuesday night nipping them, 2-1. That was just the Rays' second road victory in their past 11 tries. Following this game, the Rays head home after being on the road for a week. They are idle Thursday and host the Yankees in a marquee series beginning Friday. So this isn't a great spot for the Rays. The defending world champion Astros should bounce back strong here in a pitching matchup of righthanders Nathan Eovaldi versus Charlie Morton. Houston is 50-19 in its last 69 games against righty starters. I think it's a kill spot for the vastly superior Astros so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 runs to greatly reduce the vigorish. Eovaldi will be making his fifth start since returning from a second Tommy John surgery. Eovaldi has flashed during his career, but he's still very much on the recovery trail. I don't see him ready to deal with an elite offense. Eovaldi faced the Yankees in his last start and surrendered five runs on eight hits in 7 1/3 innings. The Astros have the highest batting average in the majors and are No. 2 in runs. The Rays rank 25th in runs. Morton has thrived since joining the Astros. He's 8-1 with a 2.94 ERA this season. The Rays have struck out 10 or more times during each of their last six games.
06-19-18	Braves +102 v. Blue Jays	Top	11-4	Win	102	7 h 52 m	Show
I'm a fan of Braves rookie pitcher Mike Soroka. The Calgary native should be extra pumped pitching in Canada against the Blue Jays. Soroka has impressed during his first four big league starts with a 2.57 ERA. The Blue Jays enter this series fat and happy after a surprising sweep of the Nationals. Despite that, Toronto is not a good team. The Blue Jays are five games below .500 while the Braves sport a 42-29 mark. Toronto only is a .500 team at home, while Atlanta is 21-16 on the road. The Braves average a run higher when going against lefty starters and they draw southpaw Jamie Garcia here. The 31-year-old Garcia has had his career derailed by multiple injuries. He's now not much more than a borderline fifth starter. He's had just two quality outings during his last 11 starts. The Braves are familar with Garcia since he pitched for them last season compiling a 4-7 record and 4.30 ERA. The Blue Jays are missing suspended closer Roberto Osuna leaving their bullpen vulnerable and also remain without injured third baseman Josh Donaldson, who was their most feared hitter.
06-18-18	Mets v. Rockies UNDER 9.5	Top	12-2	Loss	-105	14 h 25 m	Show
Jacob deGrom trumps Coors Field. The record doesn't show it because the Mets can't score for him, but deGrom has elevated himself into the best pitcher in baseball talk. He holds the lowest ERA in the majors at 1.55. During his past 10 starts, his ERA is 0.87 and he hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of these starts. That's insane. Against the Rockies career-wise, deGrom is 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA in five starts. The Under has cashed in his past five road starts. The Rockies are pitching southpaw Tyler Anderson. The Mets are one of the worst hitting teams against lefties. New York isn't very good against any type of pitching having scored three runs or fewer in 11 of its last 13 games. The Mets are really missing their most feared slugger, injured Yoenis Cespedes. Anderson knows how to pitch at Coors where he has posted a career 3.73 ERA there. Anderson has a 1.50 ERA in his one previous start versus the Mets. Both pitchers will be aided by a wind blowing in at 8-10 mph.
06-17-18	Tigers +100 v. White Sox		3-1	Win	100	6 h 41 m	Show
Southpaw Blaine Hardy has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers. Detroit has a winning record in his 10 appearances. Hardy has a respectable 3.55 ERA and has a chance to stay in Detroit's starting rotation. Hardy defeated the White Sox three weeks ago holding them to one run in seven innings. The White are bad versus lefties - 6-10 - and have been terrible at home going 12-23. Detroit has dominated Chicago this season beating the White Sox six of seven times. The Tigers have won the past five times in Chicago. I'm not a fan of White Sox starter James Shields, who is well past his prime at 36. The White Sox are 3-8 in Shields' starts this season. Shields has a 4.63 ERA on the year and a 4.44 career ERA in 27 starts against the Tigers.
06-17-18	Nationals -120 v. Blue Jays	Top	6-8	Loss	-120	5 h 51 m	Show
I can't see the Blue Jays sweeping the Nationals. Washington is the superior team in all aspects and has a pitching edge with Tanner Roark facing righty Sam Gaviglio. The Nationals have won 20 of their last 27 games versus righthanded starters. Roark is a solid middle-of-the-road type pitcher. He has a 3.03 ERA in 21 career interleague games, including 18 starts. Gaviglio isn't likely to remain in Toronto's starting pitching rotation. He's coming off a game in which he allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks in just 3 1/3 innings against the light-hitting Rays this past Monday. Gaviglio has a 7.04 road ERA this season.
06-16-18	Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5	Top	9-3	Loss	-110	15 h 8 m	Show
The oddsmaker has shaded the Under in this matchup, which makes sense given a pitching matchup of Fernando Romero and Carlos Carrasco. Romero has held three of his last four opponents to two earned runs. He is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in day games this season. The Indians have scored four or fewer runs in 10 of their last 13 games. Carrasco has been dominant in his last two starts giving up one run in 14 innings with a 21-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Indians are heavy home favorites so they are unlikely to bat in the ninth inning making this an 8 1/2-inning game.
06-15-18	Rockies +100 v. Rangers	Top	9-5	Win	100	9 h 3 m	Show
Texas has lost six in a row and has its worst record of the season. So, who are the Rangers calling on today to try to halt this losing skid? Yohander Mendez. Who? He's a guy who is 0-6 with a 5.26 ERA this season - in th minors. This will be his first big league start. Mendez's big league track record isn't glowing either. He's made 10 career relief appearances spanning 16 innings and has a 7.31 ERA. The Rockies are opposing him with Chad Bettis, who has a 4.40 ERA. Bettis, though, has proven he's far better away from Coors Field. He is 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA this season in his road outings. Bettis should be highly motivated, too, being a native of Lubblock, Texas. A huge plus for the Rockies is the return of ace setup man Adam Ottavino from the DL. Ottavino has been one of the top relievers with a 0.95 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings. Colorado has a winning record when Ottavino has been healthy.
06-14-18	Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8	Top	2-1	Loss	-111	10 h 51 m	Show
Boston ranks either first or second in the top offensive categories. The Red Sox draw an over-the-hill Felix Hernandez and a Seattle bullpen that is good, but overworked and carrying a high fatigue rating. The Mariners are swinging hot bats They've scored 24 runs in their last four games. They have have scored four or more runs in eight of their last nine games. Dave Price is past his prime, too, like Hernandez. The Mariners have been more effective against lefties, averaging nearly one run more per game than against righties.
06-13-18	Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8.5		7-2	Win	100	6 h 14 m	Show
The Rockies are showing they can score runs on the road, too, and not just at Coors Field. They have scored four or more runs in 15 of their last 16 games. The Over is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. I expect the Rockies to keep scoring facing Nick Pivetta, in a hitter's park and with the wind blowing out to right at 12 mph. Pivetta is up-and-down and right now he's down with a 5.79 ERA in his last three starts. Only once in his last six starts has he gone past the fifth inning. The Phillies should do damage against Tyler Anderson, who has a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts and a 6.12 ERA in night games. Anderson has thrown a combined 306 pitches during his last three starts, the most by far in a three-game stretch for him this season. He could easily tire and the Rockies' bullpen is missing a key arm with Adam Ottavino out.
06-13-18	Pirates v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8	Top	5-4	Loss	-125	17 h 14 m	Show
A strong pitching matchup of Jameson Tallion versus Zack Greinke is made even better by this being a get away day game where regulars could be resting and Ryan Blakney slated to be the home plate umpire. Tallion is a promising pitcher who has in good form with a 2.79 ERA in his last three games. The Under is 12-3-1 in his last 16 road starts. Greinke has pitched far better at Chase Field where his home ERA is 1.64 this season. Both pitchers will be helped with the roof being closed at Chase Field. Having Blakney behind the plate is another big plus for the Under. The Under has won 71 percent during the past 51 games Blakney has been the home plate ump.
06-12-18	Pirates +135 v. Diamondbacks		8-13	Loss	-100	9 h 5 m	Show
There's bad blood in this series. So this isn't going to be some sleepy non-division game for the Pirates. They will be up for this matchup especially after blowing a 5-0 seventh inning lead against the Diamondbacks last night. Trevor Williams is ptiching on extra rest. He's 7-1 the past eight times he has started on five days rest. Williams was pitching better earlier in the season than he is now, but he'll be extra motivated here. He's an Arizona State alum. Williams faced the Diamondbacks twice last season and gave up two runs in 11 innings. Diamondbacks starter Clay Buchholz has been pitching well, but some regression is due for the 33-year-old, who has a fragile arm.
06-12-18	Twins -102 v. Tigers	Top	6-4	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
The Twins have dominated the Tigers beating them nine of the last 11 times. They are 5-0 in their last five games at Comerica Park. I rate Twins starter Jake Odorizzi higher than converted Blaine Hardy, who isn't likely to stick too much longer in Detroit's starting rotation. Odorizzi has a career 2.28 ERA in four starts versus the Tigers.
06-12-18	Nationals +160 v. Yankees		0-3	Loss	-100	7 h 32 m	Show
Maybe if the Yankees had Luis Severino pitching, I'd stay away from the Nationals. But that's not the case here. Washington is catching a huge price going against CC Sabathia. That puts me on the Nationals. Tanner Roark has been reliable for Washington reaching the seventh inning in all but one of his 12 starts this season. The Yankees are batting just .176 in their last four games. They just were shut out by Seth Lugo and the Mets this past Sunday night. It's not a good spot either for New York. This is the Yankees' first home game since May 30. They've played the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers and Mets during their past four series. Now they step up in class. Sabathia beat the Blue Jays in his last outing, 7-2. Before that game, though, he had allowed 16 runs in 14 1/3 innings during his previous three starts. The 37-year-old has surrendered at least one home run in each of his past five starts. The Nationals could get an added boost with Daniel Murphy set to make his season debut. The Nationals' outfield already has been strengthened with Adam Eaton back from a lengthy injury.
06-11-18	Angels -110 v. Mariners	Top	3-5	Loss	-110	14 h 7 m	Show
A healthy Andrew Heaney is a promising pitcher. A healthy Wade LeBlanc is a journeyman. Both teams have been playing well. But I see regression coming for LeBlanc, who has a 2.95 ERA, and for the Mariners, who are 21-9 in one-run games. That's the most one-un victories in the majors. The Angels are 10-5 in their last 15 games, including 6-1 during their past seven. Heaney has a 2.66 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 2.35 career ERA versus the Mariners in three lifetime starts. The Angels have one of the top road marks in the majors at 20-11.
06-10-18	Yankees v. Mets OVER 7	Top	0-2	Loss	-120	18 h 4 m	Show
As great as Luis Severino has been throwing, it takes two outstanding pitchers to justify a total this low. Seth Lugo, who is primarily a middle reliever, doesn't fit with a total this low. This is especially so facing the No. 1 offense in baseball. The Yankees lead the majors in homers, runs and OPS. They easily could cover this total alone. Lugo is making just his second start of the season, filling in for injured Noah Syndergaard. The Mets are down closer Jeurys Famila and setup man AJ Ramos, both of whom are on the DL. Anything the Mets can produce would be a bonus. The Mets have scored only 11 runs in their last eight games. The Mets' offense should pick up, though, with the return of key injured hitters. Todd Frazier recently returned from injury and had a home run on Saturday. Underrated Brandon Nimmo is batting .303 with a .646 slugging percentage against righthanded pitchers, which Severino is.
06-10-18	Cardinals -115 v. Reds		3-6	Loss	-115	11 h 36 m	Show
As long as the price is right, which it is here, the Cardinals are worth backing against the Reds. St. Louis owns Cincinnati having defeated the Reds 13 straight times. St. Louis also has won the past 11 times at Great American Ball Park. The Cardinals own all the edges against the Reds, who have the worst record in the National League, including a starting pitching advantage. Carlos Martinez has gone 13 scoreless innings against Cincinnati this season. He goes against Anthony DeSclafani, who is making just his second start since 2016 following a major injury. DeSclafani is rusty and not in Martinez's class. The Reds' bullpen also carries a high fatigue rating.
06-09-18	Braves v. Dodgers OVER 7.5	Top	5-3	Win	100	6 h 16 m	Show
Seeing a total of less than 8 given this pitching matchup and the way these teams are hitting, it's a solid investment to go Over the total. Anibal Sanchez has been a pleasant surprise for the Braves - so far. Sanchez, though, is well past his prime and is due for serious regression. That very well could come here against the red-hot Dodgers offense, which is averaging 8.8 runs in their last seven games. The Dodgers have pounded 22 homers during this seven-game stretch. The Braves have scored three or more runs in 12 of their last 14 games. They've hit lefties better than righties and are facing southpaw Alex Wood, who is having a down season with a 4.48 ERA.
06-09-18	Angels v. Twins +103	Top	2-1	Loss	-100	16 h 30 m	Show
Kyle Gibson has won just one game this season. But that figure is misleading. Gibson has pitched well this year holding nine of his 12 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. The Twins are 14-6 in Gibson's last 20 games starts going back to last season. Minnesota has won in each of its last four games againt the Angels when Gibson has started. The Angels are going with lefty Tyler Skaggs. They have lost in five of Skaggs' past seven starts. Minnesota is 12-4 the past 16 times going against a southpaw starter at home. The Angels are deadling with multiple injuries with Shohei Ohtani, Adrelton Simmons, Kole Calhoun and Kaleb Cowart all out.
06-08-18	Astros v. Rangers +1.5		7-3	Loss	-100	9 h 54 m	Show
Judging by the starting pitching matchup of Justin Verlander versus Doug Fister this game is a huge mismatch. Certainly it's priced that way. But I see enough below-the-radar edges to back the Rangers at plus 1 1/2 runs. Verlander is a monster. Certainly this is not a fade on him. But veteran Doug Fister has pitched better than expected for the most part. He'll be helped by a 10-12 mph wind blowing in. Fister has a respectable 3.18 ERA in two starts against the Astros this season and 3.34 ERA in five career starts.versus Houston. The Rangers' bullpen has been outperforming the Astros bullpen by a large margin during the last two weeks with a 0.89 ERA compared to Houston's 4.32 ERA during this span. Houston has a losing record during its past 12 games in part because of its bullpen failures. The Rangers are 10-6 in their last 16 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. The Rangers also have won Game 2 during their past seven series. The Astros aren't likely to have one of their best players either as shortstop Carlos Correa has an upper body injury. Free Friday Play Braves plus $1.66 at Dodgers The surprising Braves have a better offense than the Dodgers, are 10 games above .500 compared to LA's .500 record and drawing a rookie pitcher. Yet the Dodgers are a monster favorite here. I'm not buying this especially considering the situational aspects of this game. LA concluded a six-game road trip with an 8-7 victory against the Pirates yesterday. The Dodgers' bullpen is heavily taxed having pitched 14 1/3 innings he past two days. LA is in a fat and happy mood having won five of six during its road trip. While the Dodgers face the distraction of returning home without rest after being gone a week while playing in two different time zones, the Braves were idle on Thursday. They've been in Southern California since Monday. Atlanta is 20-14 on the road. The Dodgers are 14-17 at home. Braves starter Brandon McCarthy won't lack motivation pitching against his former team having played for the Dodgers from 2015-17. The 34-year-old McCarthy certainly brings an experience level Dodgers rookie Walker Buehler lacks. McCarthy has held foes to three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts. Buehler is a highly-rated prospect. So far he's living up to his hype with a 2.74 ERA in his first 46 innings. Buehler, though, figures to have ups and downs as the league gets more film and first-hand information about him. Atlanta leads the National League in runs and OPS. The Braves have the fourth-highest batting average, too, in the majors. The Dodgers' offense hasn't been able to match that. LA ranks 18th in batting average.

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