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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
08-03-20	Phillies v. Yankees -1.5	Top	3-6	Win	100	10 h 9 m	Show
Yankees minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.55 (run line) hosting Phillies Coming off eight days of being idle due to Coronavirus concerns, the Phillies are back in action against the best pitcher in the American League if not all of baseball - Gerrit Cole. Good luck with that. This is a huge mismatch and it's priced accurately that way. But the juice can be reduced to a more manageable level by backing the Yankees on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. The Yankees are in the argument for best team in baseball opening 7-1. The Phillies appear way down this season. They've played only three games going 1-2. The three starting pitchers the Phillies have drawn are Sanday Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Robert Dugger. Now their rusty bats have to go against the dominant righty Cole. Philadelphia is 1-8 the last nine times it has faced a righty starter. The Phillies are starting Jake Arrieta, who is on the downside of his career and coming back from an elbow injury. . The Yankees have won six in a row. Cole is riding a career-best 18-game win streak. He hasn't lost in his last 24 starts. New York has been dominant as a home favorite winning 45 of the last 57 times in that role for 79 percent. All of the Yankees' victories except one this season have been by more than one run.
08-02-20	Astros -123 v. Angels		6-5	Win	100	8 h 37 m	Show
Houston is 62-30 in its last 92 games. The Angels are 19-43 during their past 62 games. The Astros are much superior. More so since the Angels will be without underrated injured shortstop Andrelton Simmons and possibly superstar Mike Trout for another game. Trout didn't play on Saturday after his wife gave birth. He might not play today either since the Angels are idle on Monday. Houston has beaten LA 20 of the last 28 times on the road. So why such a low line? Is it because the Angels hold a starting pitching edge? No, I can't say that in a pitching matchup of Josh James versus Shohei Ohtani. James can get wild, but he is a big strikeout pitcher with a 2.57 career ERA versus the Angels in 10 appearances. He has a high upside. The Angels lose Ohtani's bat at the DH spot because he'll be on the mound. Ohtani is on the comeback trail. He looked terrible in his first start, which came last Sunday against the A's. Ohtani faced six batters. He gave up three hits and three walks. His career ERA in two starts against the powerful Astros is 7.04.
08-02-20	Padres v. Rockies +113		6-9	Win	113	7 h 32 m	Show
Yes, I think the Padres are improved and a legitimate darkhorse. But I will fade them as road chalk at Coors Field. San Diego is 4-14 in its last 18 road games. The pitching matchup is Zach Davies versus Antonio Senzatela. I prefer Senzatela, who is 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 lifetime appearances versus the Padres, including six starts. He is 4-0 taking on the Padres at Coors Field. The Padres' late inning relief has been disappointing. The Rockies' relief staff has been surprisingly solid except for Wade Davis, who has no business being a closer anymore.
08-02-20	Rays -1.5 v. Orioles		1-5	Loss	-120	4 h 26 m	Show
It's a statistic rarely asked. What is Baltimore's record following a victory? The answer is 31-81. Not only are the Orioles off a victory against the Rays, but they've actually defeated Tampa Bay in consecutive games. I don't see a sweep happening and will lay 1 1/2 runs to reduce the juice to support this decision. The Rays are in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak. This wouldn't be crucial if this were a normal season. But as we know, the season is just 60 games. So Tampa Bay absolutely can't drop another one to the Orioles. Yonny Chirinos is reliable. He should be effective against the Orioles for the first few innings. The Rays then have a big bullpen advantage especially with Baltimore carrying a high bullpen fatigue rating. Look for the Rays to jump on Baltimore's journeyman starter Tommy Milone, who was bad filling in for John Means on opening night against the Red Sox and who has a 6.75 ERA lifetime versus the Rays. That includes five starts.
08-01-20	Padres v. Rockies +110		1-6	Win	110	10 h 29 m	Show
If they keep Wade Davis out of the game, I like the Rockies' chances of evening this series. The Rockies were on a four-game win streak until the Padres beat up Davis and rallied to defeat Colorado on Friday. Even with that win, San Diego is only 5-13 in its last 18 road games. The Padres also are 13-40 versus a lefty starter when on the road. Colorado is pitching southpaw Kyle Freeland, who has plenty of experience with Coors Field and pitching in Denver's thin air. Freeland was solid in his first start this season giving up two runs on four hits in six innings during a 5-2 win against the Rangers this past Sunday. Eric Hosmer has missed the past three games for the Padres due to sickness. San Diego is starting Joey Lucchesi, a lower-tier pitcher with a 4.71 lifetime ERA in four career starts at Coors.
08-01-20	Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5	Top	2-5	Loss	-125	14 h 34 m	Show
Zack Godley will lead the Red Sox clown parade of pitchers. It's not going to be pretty. Boston has no pitching and the Yankees have plenty of offense. That offense is starting to flex its muscles as the Yankees have scored 22 runs in their last three games. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for New York. He had a 24.75 ERA versus the Red Sox in eight innings last season. This will be his season debut and he's likely to be on a pitch count. He's been sidelined since getting hit in the head by a line drive on July 4. He has a 5.76 career ERA versus the Red Sox in 21 starts. Both offenses should be helped by the wind blowing out to left at 10 mph.
07-31-20	Padres v. Rockies -105	Top	8-7	Loss	-105	17 h 18 m	Show
Colorado has been an early surprise opening 4-1 with all five of those games on the road. Now the Rockies are set for their home opener and they are in a great spot to win it. The price certainly is right to back them. The Rockies are throwing their ace, righty Jon Gray. The Rockies' bullpen has held up so far. Colorado has a 1.84 team ERA having faced the Rangers and A's. The Padres appear to be one of the most improved teams in baseball. But this is a bad spot for them. San Diego had to play late into the night on Thursday to defeat the Giants on the road in extra innings. Now they had to fly into Colorado. Colorado concluded last season winning seven of its last nine home games. They are tough to deal with at Coors Field especially if you lack experience at that ballpark. San Diego starter Garrett Richards has never pitched at Coors. He's likely in for a shock. San Diego has lost 12 of its last 15 road games when facing a righthanded starter and that includes its win Thursday against the weak Giants. The Padres are 1-4 in their last five games at Coors. They could be without steady first baseman Eric Hosmer, who has missed two straight games due to a stomach illness.
07-30-20	Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10		8-6	Win	100	16 h 37 m	Show
The Orioles could be pitching Jim Palmer and the Yankees still probably would bash him because they love to hit at Camden Yards. Fortunately for Hall of Famer Palmer he didn't have to throw at Camden Yards, which is a tremendous hitter's park. The Yankees have averaged 4.1 homers per game during their last 11 games at Camden Yards. A combination of the temperature being in the 90's, a slight wind blowing out and John Means starting for Baltimore should ensure another big hitting game from the Yankees. Means displayed nice potential last season during his rookie year. But he had a 7.62 ERA in five appearances against the Yankees. This is his 2020 debut. He's not helped by a brutal bullpen. J.A. Happ goes for the Yankees. He had trouble handling the Orioles last year with a 6.85 ERA in 22 1/3 innings surrendering seven homers in this short span. The Yankees are without their closer, Aroldis Chapman.
07-29-20	Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5		6-7	Win	100	17 h 20 m	Show
When Fernando Tatis Jr. is healthy like he is now, the Padres have a dangerous offense. They are averaging 5.2 runs a game despite playing their first four games at Petco Park. This matchup is at Pacific Bell Park, a pitcher's park, too, but not as anti-offense as Petco Park. The Padres have shown a major improvement this season on working the count and being more patient at the plate. I really like San Diego starter Chris Paddack. But he'll be pitching on four day's rest for the first time in his big league career having always gone on five day's rest before. Johnny Cueto continues on his comeback trail after tossing just 16 innings last season. So the Giants are likely to bring him along slowly. San Francisco has one of the worst bullpens in the majors.
07-29-20	Royals +127 v. Tigers	Top	4-5	Loss	-100	15 h 50 m	Show
Anytime I see the Tigers favored, I have to seriously consider the underdog. Detroit has lost 76 percent of its last 100 games! The Tigers are 1-4 the past five times they've been home chalk. The Royals aren't starting one of their not-ready-for-prime-time young pitchers. They are going with veteran lefty Danny Duffy. He held the Indians to two runs on three hits in 4 1/3 innings during his first start this season. Kansas City has the four best position players in this matchup. The Tigers are going with Matt Boyd, who looked terrible in his first start this year when he got hammered by the Reds. Boyd does not have a good history against the Royals either with a 5-9 mark and 6.46 ERA in 19 career outings versus them. Whit Merrifield, the best player on either team, has a lifetime batting average of nearly .500 against Boyd going 20-for-39.
07-29-20	Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates		3-0	Win	109	15 h 41 m	Show
I like the Brewers so much going with their best starter after playing poorly on Tuesday that I'll take them on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs to get much better juice. The Brewers have owned the Pirates beating them 20 of the last 27 times, but blew a 6-2 lead in losing to Pittsburgh, 8-6, last night. The Brewers were disgusted with that defeat knowing they are the far superior team. Now they have Brandon Woodruff going. He was 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 121 2/3 innings last season emerging as Milwaukee's ace. Woodruff was hitting 99 mph on his fastball opening day and is 2-0 career-wise versus the Pirates with 24 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings. I consider Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove more as an innings-eater rather than a respectable starter. The Brewers own a huge bullpen edge, too.
07-28-20	Braves v. Rays -125	Top	2-5	Win	100	12 h 8 m	Show
Tropicana Field is one of the tougher places to play especially for National League opponents. The Braves experienced the horrors of Tropicana Field losing by nine runs to the Rays on Monday. Atlanta fielders had difficulty dealing with the domed stadium's roof and background striking out 19 times. The price is low enough to back the Rays again today against the Braves, who are without their two top catchers. The Braves are going with Kyle Wright. He's a highly-rated prospect who is Atlanta's No. 5 pitcher now because Cole Hamels is out. Wright has failed to show anything in the majors yet posting a 7.71 ERA in 11 big league appearances. Lack of control has been a big issue with him. Yonny Chirinos gets the start for Tampa Bay. He has no problems at Tropicana Field holding opposing hitters to a .207 batting average there. Chirinos has much better control than Wright finishing with a 1.05 WHIP last year. The Rays usually come through as a home favorite winning 75 percent in that role the past 32 times. Tampa Bay also is 15-6 the past 21 games versus NL foes and 21-5 the last 26 times playing on astroturf.
07-27-20	Mariners v. Astros -1.5		5-8	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
Kendall Graveman is one of my least favorite starters. The combination of Graveman making his first start in two years after being out last year recovering from Tommy John surgery and the Astros coming off a loss puts me on Houston. I see this as a kill spot for the Astros - as does the oddsmaker - so I'm laying the run line to reduce the vigorish. Houston had defeated Seattle 15 straight times until losing, 7-6, to the Mariners on Sunday. The Astros also are 12-1 (92 percent) the past 13 times hosting the Mariners. Graveman had a 7.60 ERA when he last pitched in 2018. Houston is going with Josh James, one of its many talented young pitchers. James had 100 strikeouts in just 61 1/3 innings last year. He is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in four career starts. James knows he could have a big role if Justin Verlander has a serious elbow injury. The Mariners are in full rebuild mode while the Astros are one of the best teams in baseball.
07-27-20	Diamondbacks +110 v. Padres	Top	2-6	Loss	-100	9 h 13 m	Show
After facing Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet and Garrett Richards, the Diamondbacks drop down in class today drawing Joey Lucchesi. He has a career record of 18-19 with a 4.14 ERA and has yet to prove he can be an above average starter. Right-handed Luke Weaver was a star holding 10 of 11 opponents to three runs or fewer last season before being sidelined until the final week of the season due to an elbow injury. The Padres have lost 20 of the past 26 times they've gone against a righty starter.
07-26-20	Braves v. Mets -105		14-1	Loss	-105	11 h 23 m	Show
The Braves are at a big early-season disadvantage with both of their veteran catchers, Travis d'Arnaud and Tyler Flowers, out. The combination of that and preferring veteran Rick Porcello against lefty Sean Newcomb puts me on the Mets at this low price. Porcello had spent his first 11 years in the American League. Porcello is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career interleague starters versus the Braves, but National League teams are mostly unfamiliar with him. Newcomb has moved around from bullpen to starter while proving more reliable as a relief pitcher. The Mets' lineup is more dangerous against southpaws with the return to health of right-handed DH Yoenis Cespedes.
07-26-20	Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 11		7-4	Push	0	6 h 54 m	Show
It's not difficult to imagine each team scoring at least five runs in a starting pitching matchup of Wade LeBlanc versus Ryan Weber, especially with the weather and home plate umpire being factors. LeBlanc is a well-traveled veteran who is easily exposed when pitching in hitter's parks such as Fenway Park. The Orioles are maybe the only team that LeBlanc could make the starting rotation. LeBlanc had a 7.08 ERA during the last two months of 2019. Opponents batted .314 against him during this span. The weather forecast isn't a plus for LeBlanc, nor Red Sox starter Ryan Weber, with the forecast calling for temperatures to hit 90 degrees and wind blowing out to left at 11-12 mph. Weber is another guy who shouldn't be in a big league rotation after posting a 7.94 ERA in three starts last year. The Red Sox, though, are forced to be patient with him having lost through either injury, free agency or trade Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and David Price. Alan Porter is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over cashed in 19 of his 30 games last year when he was behind the plate for 63 percent. Porter has annually been among the leaders in lowest percentage of strikes called during the past five seasons.
07-26-20	Tigers v. Reds -1.5		3-2	Loss	-101	5 h 27 m	Show
Trevor Bauer came close to reaching elite status with the Indians before taking a huge step backward after going to the Reds last season. The right-handed Bauer is in a contract year and has much to prove. Unlike other ballplayers, Bauer attacked the extended offseason with an intense training regime. Bauer's comeback begins against the team that scored the fewest runs in the majors last year, the Tigers. Detroit once again could be the worst team in the majors. The Tigers are 6-16 in their last 22 interleague road games and have lost 64 of the past 82 times (22 percent) they've faced a righty starter. The Tigers are starting Spencer Turnbull, who was 3-17 with a 4.61 ERA last year. Turnbull compiled some of these bad numbers at pitcher-friendly Commerica Park, too. The Reds' Great American Ball Park, by contrast, is one of the best hitting parks in the majors.
07-25-20	Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8.5		1-5	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
Robbie Ray is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. Ray is highly motivated to show well being a free agent at the end of the season. He looked great in spring training. I am also high on San Diego's starting pitcher, Dinelson Lamet. He has a tremendous fastball and is two years removed from Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2018 season. Lamet has improved his slider and curveball. He is a major breakout candidate. Lamet, like Ray, had a dominant spring training. He is going against a Diamondbacks lineup whose bottom third is very weak. Playing at Petco Park, the premier pitcher's park, is another plus for the Under.
07-25-20	Tigers v. Reds -1.5	Top	6-4	Loss	-107	15 h 32 m	Show
Luis Castillo is a serious Cy Young Award candidate and the Reds appear to be one of the most improved teams in baseball. The Tigers remain the Tigers - a team that went 47-114 last year and had the worst offense in the league. Detroit has dropped 23 of its last 31 interleague road games. I don't see Ivan Nova changing that trend. Nova, the Tigers' scheduled starter, doesn't miss many bats. That's dangerous against a slugging Reds team that has added power hitters Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas and is playing in their offensive-friendly ballpark.
07-24-20	Giants v. Dodgers -1.5		1-9	Win	100	18 h 6 m	Show
The Dodgers are the best team in the National League, if not all of baseball. The Giants could be the worst. It's nearly a no-brainer to just back the Dodgers on the run line thus avoiding laying heavy juice. It easily worked on Thursday with LA winning by seven runs even though Clayton Kershaw didn't pitch. The Dodgers have a dominant offense. It doesn't matter who the Giants start on the mound. San Francisco's bullpen is extremely weak, too, having lost its best relievers from last season. LA's scheduled starter, Ross Stripling, is solid. The key with Stripling is he has excellent control. The Giants are without three of their key hitters with Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria. That makes their already weak lineup even weaker.
07-24-20	Twins -103 v. White Sox	Top	10-5	Win	100	17 h 9 m	Show
We know this about the Twins: They are coming off a 101-win season and a major league record 307 homers. We know this about the White Sox: They have some intriguing young talent and are projected to challenge for the AL Central Division title. But they are untested. The Twins are the proven commodity. The White Sox are unknown. I like Twins starter Jose Berrios more than White Sox starter Lucas Giolito in this matchup. The price is right to back Minnesota. The Twins dominated the White Sox last season winning 13 of 19 times. Minnesota scored 231 more runs than Chicago last year. Berrios has a strong history versus the White Sox with an 11-2 record and 2.40 ERA in 14 career starts. This includes a 4-1 mark and 2.88 ERA against the White Sox last season. By contrast, Giolito is 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Twins.
07-24-20	Rockies v. Rangers -120		0-1	Win	100	17 h 1 m	Show
The Rockies are usually a good fade on the road. That should be the case here. Colorado has lost 39 of its last 54 away games. They are starting German Marquez and have one of the worst bullpens on paper. The Rockies' best reliever, Scott Oberg, is on the DL with a back strain. I like Texas starter Lance Lynn more than Marquez. The veteran Lynn won't lack motivation making his first Opening Day start. He hasn't pitched against the Rockies in three years, but has a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP versus them in seven career starts.
10-25-19	Astros v. Nationals +131	Top	4-1	Loss	-100	26 h 2 m	Show
I can't - and won't - pass up a plus price offering on the red-hot Nationals. Not only is Washington the home team, where there will be no DH, but the Nationals are a blazing 18-2 in their last 20 games. They have won eight games in a row. The Nationals are 13-1 in their past 14 home games. Yet, despite these impressive streaks, Washington is the underdog. I don't get it. Houston is 2-3 on the road in the postseason. The Nationals beat Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. They can defeat Zach Greinke, too. I like Greinke and this isn't a fade on him as it is a play on the hot Nationals, who have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. Greinke, though, is 36. He's not an "A" pitcher anymore in my book. I rate him as a solid "B" being more craft and guile than blowout stuff like he used to be. Greinke has a far bigger name than Washington starter Anibal Sanchez. It's a mistake to believe Sanchez takes a backseat to Greinke in the postseason, though. Sanchez has proven to be a big-play pitcher. He has a 2.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 56 postseason innings with 60 strikeouts. Sanchez nearly threw a no-hitter against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLCS during his previous start. He has a 0.71 ERA in the playoffs this season. The Astros have a deeper bullpen than the Nationals, who are vulnerable in middle relief. But the Nationals' two best relievers, Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson, are rested. No DH is a plus for the Nationals, who are used to playing by those rules. The Astros now have to decide if they are going to sit out Yordan Alvarez, or start him in the outfield taking a risk with his questionable fielding compared to Josh Reddick. The Astros haven't won since the news about assistant general manager Brandon Taubman's behavior toward a group of female reporters in the Houston clubhouse following the Astros' game-clinching series victory against the Yankees. This incident has caused MLB to investigate and is a distraction for the Astros. Bottom line is there just too much value not to ride the Nationals again.
10-14-19	Cardinals +121 v. Nationals	Top	1-8	Loss	-100	18 h 38 m	Show
I have the utmost respect for Stephen Strasburg. But I like Jack Flaherty better. I believe there is value getting Flaherty and the Cardinals - in a desperate spot down 0-2 - at an underdog price. Yes, St. Louis is on the road now. But the Cardinals have beaten the Nationals five of the past six times as a visitor. Yes, the Cardinals aren't hitting. But the Nationals aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball having scored five runs in the first two games of the series. Yes, Strasburg is a stud pitcher. But Flaherty was the best pitcher in the National League during August and September with a 0.91 ERA following All-Star break. Flaherty has stayed hot in the postseason with a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings. St. Louis is 11-5 in his last 16 starts.
10-11-19	Nationals v. Cardinals -120		2-0	Loss	-120	19 h 55 m	Show
The Nationals have three outstanding starting pitchers. Anibal Sanchez isn't one of them. It's Sanchez who draws the start in Game 1 of the NL Championship Series today. He's backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. And the Nationals won't be resorting to using Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin in relief when they have to dip into their bullpen. Not with those three studs drawing heavy action in the Nationals' playoff series win against the Dodgers. The underdog Nationals took out the Dodgers winning the pivotal Game 5 in extra innings this past Wednesday in LA. Washington still may be hung over with such a short turnaround opening this series in St. Louis. Washington has lost seven of its last nine games to St. Louis. I prefer Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas to Sanchez. Mikolas is a solid No. 3 type starter, while Sanchez is more bottom of the rotation. Mikolas has a 2.98 ERA at home this season. St. Louis is 16-7 in Mikolas' last 23 home starts. Sanchez is 2-4 with 3.44 career ERA in eight career starts versus St. Louis.
10-09-19	Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8	Top	13-1	Loss	-104	16 h 30 m	Show
These same two starting pitchers, Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz, just went against each other this past Friday. Final score was Braves 3, Cardinals 0. Both pitched well especially Foltynewicz, who gave up just three hits with no walks and had seven strikeouts in seven innings. Flaherty allowed three runs in seven innings. He gave up eight hits and one walk with eight strikeouts. This wasn't a fluke. Flaherty and Foltynewicz have been hot for quite a while. Flaherty was the NL Pitcher of the Month for August AND September. He went 7-2 with 0.91 ERA after the All-Star break. The Under is 13-3-2 (81 percent) in his past 18 starts. Foltynewicz went 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA during his last 10 starts. The loser of this game is eliminated. So each manager won't hesitate to use his best pitchers in relief if necessary. Weather-wise, there is a slight breeze blowing in.
10-08-19	Astros v. Rays OVER 7.5	Top	1-4	Loss	-100	16 h 33 m	Show
We've got two major factors going in getting this total to go Over. The first is an Astros offense that had the highest batting average in the majors and was third in runs and homers. They get to face a bunch of Tampa Bay relievers as Rays manager Kevin Cash is using this pivotal Game 4 as a bullpen day. First up for the Rays is Diego Castillo. He had a 6.14 ERA in six regular season starts. Castillo has never started a playoff game. The second factor is the Rays coming off a 10-run game against Zach Greinke and now drawing Justin Verlander on three days rest. The 36-year-old Verlander hasn't pitched on this short of rest all year. Tampa Bay has scored at least four runs in 19 of its last 25 games.
10-04-19	Cardinals -123 v. Braves	Top	0-3	Loss	-123	14 h 25 m	Show
The Cardinals have been red-hot during the past two months winning 34 of their last 50 games, including seven of their last nine road contests. Jack Flaherty has been a major cog during the Cardinals' stretch drive. There hasn't been a better pitcher during August and September than Flaherty. He is 7-2 with a 0.91 ERA during his past 15 starts. He has a 0.41 ERA in his past three starts and a 1.48 day time ERA on the season. All this bodes well for the Cardinals, who knocked off the Braves by scoring a combined six runs in the eighth and ninth inning to win, 7-6, in Game 1 of the series on Thursday. It was the Cardinals' 10th win in their last 13 road games versus Atlanta. The Braves have outstanding young talent. But some of that talent needs more maturity and is in a rough bounce back spot after such a tough home loss in the series opener. Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz has not fared well historically against the Cardinals with a 3-4 mark and 7.64 ERA in seven career starts.
10-03-19	Nationals v. Dodgers -165		0-6	Win	100	9 h 38 m	Show
I want the Dodgers going for me in this opening National League playoff series. LA is rested, has the better offense and bullpen. I also like the starting pitching matchup from a Dodgers perspective, too. Walker Buehler has been dominant when pitching at Dodger Stadium going 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA there. The Dodgers think so much of Buehler they started him ahead of Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 15-3 when Buehler has pitching the opener of a series. Corbin has been much better at home than on the road where his away record is 6-5 with a 4.18 ERA compared to 8-2 with a 2.40 ERA at Nationals Park. Corbin is squaring off against an LA squad that set an NL record with 279 home runs and led the NL in runs.
10-01-19	Brewers v. Nationals OVER 7.5	Top	3-4	Loss	-113	20 h 53 m	Show
On the surface, this sounds like a low-scoring game. The Brewers are going with Brandon Woodruff while the Nationals are pitching Max Scherzer with Washington manager Dave Martinez saying Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg could be used out of the bullpen if necessary. Perception doesn't fit reality here, though. Woodruff just came back from a two-month oblique injury. He's only pitched four innings since returning and won't be able to go far in this game. That means a lot of work for the Brewers bullpen. Josh Hader is the only Milwaukee reliever I trust. As for the Nationals, Scherzer isn't the imposing monster of past seasons. He was hurt this season with a back injury. He doesn't have a great postseason history - 4-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 16 career playoff games - and isn't in good form with a 6.11 ERA during his past three starts. Washington's relief pitchers had the highest ERA in the majors at 5.66. Corbin just pitched on Saturday. So he would be on short rest. If Martinez were to pitch Strasburg in relief it would have to be in absolute desperation because he would be using up his two best starters just in the wildcard game. Both teams have been swinging hot bats. The Brewers are averaging 5.9 runs in their last 10 games, while the Nationals are averaging 6.7 runs during their past eight games. The weather forecast is calling for temperatures to be in the 80s with a slight wind blowing out. So it's an excellent setup for the hitters.
09-26-19	Astros v. Angels +1.5		3-4	Win	140	12 h 16 m	Show
Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton are all out for the season. Scheduled starting pitcher Jaime Barria has a 6.43 ERA and has lost seven straight decisions. So am I in my right mind by backing the Angels here? Yes. I'll take 1 1/2 runs with the Angels based on the situation, who isn't going to start for Houston today and the horrendous September form of slated Astros starter Wade Miley. The Astros just played last night at Seattle and were involved in a near no-hitter by Zack Greinke. That was a highly emotional game. They got into LA very early today. Astros manager AJ Hinch said Jose Altuve and George Springer won't be in the starting lineup. He wants to rest them. Carlos Correa also won't be in the lineup either because of a sore back. Barria has been bad, but Miley has been worse this month with a mind-blowing 22.09 September ERA giving up 18 runs and 23 hits in only 7 1/3 innings! Given these factors, I believe the Angels can hang in.
09-25-19	Brewers -138 v. Reds	Top	9-2	Win	100	18 h 9 m	Show
No team is hotter than Milwaukee. The Brewers are a major league-best 18-4 this month. They are 16-2 in their last 18 games. The price and pitching matchup is worth it to ride the Brewers again today. Jordan Lyles has been outstanding since coming to the Brewers on July 29. Milwaukee is 9-1 in Lyles' 10 starts. Lyles has a 2.35 ERA with the Brewers and is in excellent form with a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts. The Reds are averaging only 2.3 runs in their last eight games. The Reds are dealing with a virus that has affected several Cincinnati players, including infielder Freddy Galvis. The Brewers are highly motivated and have tremendous momentum. If they win this game, they clinch a wild-card berth. The Reds just want the season to end. They are giving Tyler Mahle an extended look. The results haven't been good. Mahle, who is slated to start here, hasn't won since May. He's 2-11 on the season with a 4.93 ERA. Mahle's ERA in his past three starts is 6.59.
09-24-19	Braves v. Royals OVER 9.5	Top	6-9	Win	103	19 h 51 m	Show
I can easily envision both teams scoring at least five runs in a pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Danny Duffy. Teheran has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts - both against the Phillies - giving up five homers during this nine inning span. Teheran also has given up a National League-high 4.31 walks per nine innings. Bad current form and bases on balls can be a deadly combination playing in an AL ballpark where the DH is used. The Royals are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 20 runs during their last two games. Neither pitcher is going to be helped by the weather conditions, which call for 14-to-15 mph wind blowing out to left. That's especially bad for southpaw Duffy. Atlanta ranks seventh in the majors in homers and eighth in runs. They have the fifth highest slugging percentage versus lefties in the National League. The Royals have the sixth-worst bullpen in the majors with a 5.05 ERA. Kansas City has been a solid Over play. The Over has cashed in 17 of the Royals' past 24 games for 71 percent.
09-23-19	Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +117	Top	9-7	Loss	-100	19 h 45 m	Show
The Cardinals were in a party mood after clinching their first playoff berth in four years after sweeping the Cubs with a 3-2 road win on Sunday. So the Cardinals might not have their full focus traveling West to take on the host Diamondbacks tonight. The pitching matchup is Adam Wainwright versus lefty Alex Young, who the Cardinals have never faced before. Wainwright is a brilliant 9-3 with a 2.03 ERA when pitching at home. However, his numbers are far worse on the road where he's 4-6 with a 6.03 ERA in 14 away starts. St. Louis is 1-7 the last eight times Wainwright has gone against a winning team on the road. The Cardinals are 21 games above .500 when facing a righthanded starter, but just 16-15 versus southpaw starters. Young is a rookie, but he has been a rock for Arizona holding 12 of his 15 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. He has a 2.30 ERA in his past six starts.
09-22-19	Nationals v. Marlins +195		3-5	Win	195	11 h 25 m	Show
The Marlins are such big underdogs in this spot largely due to reputation and the Nationals pushing for a playoff spot. But there are a lot of circumstances here that point to an outstanding value play backing the home underdog. Washington has won the first two games of this series. This is the Nationals' final regular season road game. They return home to host the Phillies on Monday, closing out the season with eight home games. So the Nationals might not have their full concentration while also taking the Marlins too lightly in this Sunday get away day spot. The Nationals are pitching their No. 5 rotation guy, Austin Voth. He has a 3.77 ERA on the road this season. Washington is 1-5 in Voth's last six starts. Pablo Lopez starts for Miami. He's been a much better pitcher at home where his ERA is 3.22. Lopez also has a 2.76 ERA in day games. He's coming off a Monday performance where he held the Diamondbacks to three runs on five hits in six innings. The Marlins do not have a good bullpen. However, the Nationals have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.79.
09-21-19	Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 12		9-8	Win	102	3 h 57 m	Show
The wind is blowing out to left field like crazy at Wrigley Field in the 16-18 mph range. The oddsmaker can't set a total high enough when that happens. This is especially bad for Cubs lefty starter Jose Quintana, who has an 11.32 ERA in his last three starts. Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson doesn't miss many bats so the weather conditions are not ripe for him either.
09-19-19	Padres v. Brewers OVER 8		1-5	Loss	-112	14 h 16 m	Show
Hard to believe, but there have been just 13 combined runs scored during the first three games of this series. Not surprising, all three games have gone Under. I see a turnaround coming in the finale of this series. The Padres are a strong offensive club on the road away from Petco Park. The Brewers rank eighth in the majors in homers. The Over is 13-4-1 (76 percent) the past 18 times the Brewers have played Game 4 of a series. The pitching matchup is lefty Joey Lucchesi versus Jordan Lyles. Lucchesi is coming off his worst outing giving up a career-high eight runs on nine hits - six of which went for extra bases - in just 3 2/3 innings in a 10-8 road loss to the Rockies this past Friday. That was at Coors Field. Miller Park, the site of this matchup, is another hitter-friendly park. The Brewers can expect to start righthanded hitters Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain against a southpaw starter. Braun and Cain didn't start Wednesday's game because San Diego threw righthander Dinelson Lamet. Lyles pitched for San Diego last year. So the Padres know him. Lyles has a 5.02 ERA in 13 career appearances against San Diego, including nine starts. The Padres have a .434 slugging percentage on the road compared to .398 at home. They also are batting .249 away compared to .232 at Petco Park.
09-18-19	Mariners v. Pirates OVER 9.5	Top	4-1	Loss	-105	18 h 55 m	Show
Mariners at Pirates Over 9 1/2 The Pirates are giving up an obscene 13.2 runs per game during their last four games. They have another bad starter going today with Dario Agrazal and their best relief pitcher, Felipe Vazquez, is in jail rather than in the bullpen after being arrested on Tuesday. The Mariners have scored at least five runs in five of their past six games. Agrazal holds a 7.08 ERA during his last eight starts. Safe to say the Mariners should produce their share of runs. But what about the shell-shocked Pirates? They aren't likely to have their two best offensive players with Josh Bell and Starling Marte both injured. It shouldn't matter because the Pirates are facing rookie Justin Dunn followed by journeyman Tommy Milone. Dunn looked completely overmatched in his big league debut this past Thursday giving up two runs while walking five in just two-thirds of an inning against the Reds. Dunn threw 37 pitches of which 23 of his throws were called balls. He clearly doesn't appear ready for the major leagues. Dunn isn't expected to go more than three innings before Milone comes on the scene followed by other relievers. Milone has a 4.93 ERA.
09-17-19	Mariners +123 v. Pirates	Top	6-0	Win	123	16 h 24 m	Show
Mitch Keller is the Pirates' top pitching prospect. He has yet to show it, though. Pressed into service due to the Pirates' multiple pitching injuries, Keller is struggling to solve big league hitters with an 8.29 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. He has a 10.97 ERA in his past three outings. Keller has given up at least one homer in four of his last five starts. The Mariners rank ninth in homers and expect to activate power-hitting outfielder Domingo Santana from the injured list in time for this game. Santana is second on the Mariners in RBI's. I'm not buying Keller as a favorite in this matchup of two bad teams. The Mariners are throwing their No. 1 pitcher, lefty Marco Gonzalez. If you discount his recent starts against the powerful Astros, Gonzaez has surrendered three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. He was solid in his past start, a 5-3 home victory against the Reds this past Wednesday. Gonzalez held Cincinnati to two runs on five hits in seven innings. Pittsburgh is 14-25 versus lefty starters this season. Seattle is 4-2 in its last six games. The Pirates are home for the first time in nine days. They just were swept three games by the Cubs getting outscored by 32 runs in that series. Pittsburgh has dropped 19 of its last 27 home games.
09-13-19	White Sox v. Mariners OVER 9.5	Top	9-7	Win	100	19 h 34 m	Show
If I had to pick the worst starting pitcher during the second half of the season the name Dylan Covey would emerge. Covery is 0-4 with a 14.26 ERA in eight second-half appearances. Covey hasn't been very good all season. He's 1-7 with an 8.14 ERA. I'm surprised Covey is getting another start having those dreadful numbers. But as long as he's going back to the mound, I'll find a way to fade him and that's by going above this total. I can't trust Seattle starter, southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, at this big of a lay price. So going above the total is the safest way. It's easy to envision these teams combining to reach double-digit runs. The White Sox are averaging 5.6 runs in their last nine games. The Over is 11-3-2 during their last 16 away games. Kikuchi has a 5.24 ERA on the year. The White Sox have the third-highest batting average in the American League against lefties. The Over is 19-8-1 in Kikuchi's last 28 starts.
09-12-19	Braves -125 v. Phillies	Top	5-9	Loss	-125	16 h 28 m	Show
If it weren't for Washington's Dave Martinez, I would select Philadephia's Gabe Kapler as the worst manager in the National League if not all of baseball. The Phillies haven't made the playoffs since 2011. Kabler hasn't changed that in the two years he has been manager despite management getting him a lot of talent. Kapler's bizarre in-game decisions, poor bullpen management and lack of communication have hindered the Phillies. So if I can find a reason to fade the Phillies, I usually will. In this matchup there are several major factors working against Philadelphia, beginning with the starting pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Drew Smyly. Teheran is very reliable. The Braves are 16-7 in his last 23 starts. During these past 23 starts, Teheran has a 2.67 ERA. He's allowed only three runs during his past four starts spanning 25 innings. Opposing batters are hitting just .167 against him during this time frame. It took a while, but the Braves' high quality relievers they picked up at the trade deadline have settled down and are pitching well. Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in the majors having won 19 of its last 23 games. The Braves have won 67 percent of their games, too, when drawing a lefty starter this season going 22-11. Smyly was terrible with Texas this year going 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. He pitched better initially since coming to the Phillies on July 21. But aside from his last start against the Mets this past Saturday, Smyly has reverted back to his terrible American League form giving up 21 earned runs in his previous six games. Smyly failed to go six innings in any of those six outings before his last start. The chance to back the hot Braves with the stronger pitcher at a reasonable price has me taking Atlanta.
09-11-19	Braves -124 v. Phillies	Top	3-1	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
There is a class and pitching difference here that makes this a worthy investment to back the Braves. Dallas Keuchel is a "B" level pitcher, who has been throwing like his past Cy Young days. The lefty is 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA during his last five starts spanning 31 innings. The Phillies are 16-22 against lefty starters and going with Zach Eflin, who is a bottom of the rotation type starter at best. Eflin has really struggled against Atlanta this year surrendering 12 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Philadelphia can't beat a good team when Elfin starts. The Phillies are 2-12 the past 14 times Elfin has faced an above .500 opponent. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball winning 18 of its last 22 games and seven of its past nine.
09-10-19	Nationals v. Twins UNDER 10.5	Top	0-5	Win	100	11 h 57 m	Show
The Twins lead the majors in runs and homers. Yet they have gone Under in their last seven games. Surprised? Don't be. The Twins have a long injury list that is hurting their offense right now. Minnesota has been minus Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Marwin Gonzalez and Max Kepler departed the Twins' last game two days ago with an upper chest injury. The result is Minnesota is averaging 2.6 runs during its past five games. The Nationals were swinging very hot bats until the past eight days. If you discount a nine-run game against the Braves in their previous game, the Nationals are averaging 3.2 runs in their last four games. There is a strong Under trend when Washington plays American League teams. The Under has cashed in 71 percent of the Nationals' last 45 Interleague games. The pitching matchup is Anibal Sanchez versus Jose Berrios. Sanchez didn't pitch well in his last outing. Prior to that, however, Sanchez had a 3.16 ERA in his previous 17 starts. He has a respectable 3.44 ERA on the road this season. Sanchez is a heady veteran who knows how to pitch and knows something about the Twins having pitching briefly for them during spring training last year. Berrios is an All-Star. He's given up three or fewer earned runs in 15 of his last 18 starts. The Nationals have never faced him.
09-09-19	Cubs v. Padres +130		10-2	Loss	-100	11 h 1 m	Show
The Cubs and their starting pitcher, Kyle Hendricks, play much worse on the road. Chicago is 13 games below .500 away from Wrigly Field. Hendricks has a 1.77 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home, but is 4-7 on the road with a 5.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Cubs have lost six of the Hendrick's last eight away starts. San Diego starter Cal Quantrill isn't in good form. However, he shut out the Cubs on two hits in 5 2/3 innings when he last faced them on July 21. Quantrill struck out six and did not walk a batter. Hendricks started that game for the Cubs. San Diego won, 5-1. The Cubs could be down four key players. Star shortstop Javier Baez and closer Craig Kimbrel are both out. Infielder Addison Russell isn't likely to play either after getting hit in the head with a pitch yesterday. Kris Bryant missed Sunday's game with a sore knee. So he's questionable.
09-08-19	Blue Jays +185 v. Rays		3-8	Loss	-100	4 h 58 m	Show
There is too much value to pass up on this game. Toronto starter Jacob Waguespack has had some good moments. Just three starts ago he held the powerful Dodgers to no runs in seven innings allowing just one hit and one walk with five strikeouts. He has a respectable 3.97 ERA. Tyler Glasnow will be making his first appearance for the Rays since May 10. He's been out this long due to a strained forearm. Glasnow has a very high ceiling, but he figures to be rusty and only pitch around two innings turning this into a bullpen game for the Rays. That puts a lot of randomness into the equation and makes the Blue Jays an enticing underdog at this huge plus price.
09-08-19	Diamondbacks v. Reds -124		3-4	Win	100	4 h 57 m	Show
Arizona is playing well, but the Diamondbacks are overachievers. They are not some powerhouse and they are at a pitching disadvantage here. Diamondbacks starter Mike Leake is 0-5 with a 4.75 ERA in eight starts against his former team the Reds. The best thing you can say about Leake is that he is an innings-eater. I prefer Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, who pitches better at home and has a 2.16 ERA during his past four starts.
09-06-19	Yankees -123 v. Red Sox		1-6	Loss	-123	5 h 35 m	Show
Face it Red Sox nation. This isn't your season. The price is right to back the superior road Yankees, who despite multiple injuries own the best record in baseball. The Yankees have dominated the Red Sox this season winning 11 of 15 games. New York is hot, too, winners of eight of its last 10. New York has a rested bullpen, which Boston doesn't, and has a much better starter going in a pitching matchup of Domingo German versus journeyman Jhoulys Chacin. German is 17-3. He's given up three earned runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts. Chacin was released by the Brewers after posting a 3-10 mark and 5.79 ERA in 19 starts this season. Chacin last started back on July 24.
09-05-19	Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5	Top	0-10	Loss	-102	11 h 48 m	Show
These two teams combined for 17 runs on Wednesday. Expect a far different outcome today in this early start day time get away game. Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson doesn't get much love from the marketplace. Metric handicappers dislike him. Hudson, though, keeps pitching well. He has a 1.77 ERA in his last three starts. Hudson is better at home, too, where he's 7-2 with a 3.14 ERA at Busch Stadium this season. The Under has cashed in eight of his past nine home starts. Logan Webb starts for the Giants. He's one of San Francisco's better pitching prospects. This will be his fourth big league start. The Cardinals have never faced him. Webb held the Padres to one run in 5 1/3 innings during his last start. Both starters are backed by strong bullpens and a solid Under home plate umpire in Cory Blaser. The Under is 97-68 (59 percent) during the past six seasons when Blaser has been behind the plate.
09-04-19	Mets v. Nationals -117	Top	8-4	Loss	-117	10 h 25 m	Show
Less than 24 hours after suffering their most brutal loss of the season - and one that realistically dents any playoff hopes - the Mets must play the Nationals on the road again with this day time start. The Nationals took out Jacob deGrom and the Mets by rallying for seven runs in the ninth inning to pull out a highly improbable 11-10 victory against the Mets on Tuesday night. Before this game, teams with a six-run lead in the ninth were unbeaten this season at 274-0. That loss was the Mets' eighth in their last 11 games and puts them five games behind the Cubs for the last wild card spot in the NL. The defeat also might have sealed the fate of Mets manager Mickey Callaway. The shell shocked Mets are in no shape mentally to face the Nationals in such a short turnaround. Washington is red-hot going 20-6 inits last 26 games. The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler versus Anibal Sanchez. Wheeler is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four starts against Washington this season. The Nationals have scored seven or more runs in 13 of their last 16 games. Sanchez has a 3.80 ERA compared to Wheeler's 4.41 ERA. Sanchez is 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his last 16 starts.
09-03-19	Angels v. A's UNDER 9.5	Top	5-7	Loss	-100	12 h 9 m	Show
Start on May 7 and you'll find that Mike Fiers has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's 11-0 since then with a 2.41 ERA holding batters to a .214 average in 127 innings. This is span of 20 starts. Fiers is a fly ball pitcher who loves pitching at spacious Oakland Coliseum where he is 8-2 with a 2.92 ERA this season. He has dominated the Angels this season with a 3-0 record and 1.93 ERA in three starts. Angels starter Jaime Barria has a 6.10 ERA. However, Barria has shown signs of improvement lately giving up two runs apiece in each of his last two starts spanning 5 and 5 1/3 innings. Those starts were at Houston and Texas, two ballparks that are far more offensively-inclined than Oakland's pitcher-friendly Coliseum.
09-02-19	Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5		7-3	Loss	-105	12 h 57 m	Show
This total is too high. But I understand why the oddsmaker set this total so high. Joe Ross isn't perceived as a good pitcher and Noah Syndergaard is coming off his worst start of the season. The Nationals are swinging very hot bats, too, scoring seven or more runs in nine of their last 10 games. It's impressive how hot the Nationals' offense is. Syndergaard can halt any attack if he's on his game. Until his last start this past Wednesday against the Cubs, Syndergaard was pitching his best ball of the season posting a 1.82 ERA during his previous eight games before the Cubs bombed him for 10 runs in three innings. I believe the prideful Syndergaard comes back with a strong performance. He's thrown quality games in eight of his past nine starts. He also has a 2.49 ERA on the season in day action. While Syndergaard is high profile, Ross is way below the radar. He was so bad earlier in the season that he was sent to the minors. But he's made necessary adjustments and has been very sharp since returning to the big leagues going 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA during his past five starts. The Under is 7-1-1 in Ross's last nine starts. The Mets have been held to two or fewer runs in six of their last 10 games. The Nationals also have their best reliever, Sean Doolittle, back from injury. Note there is a slight wind blowing out, but it is toward center field.
08-31-19	Twins -130 v. Tigers	Top	7-10	Loss	-130	11 h 38 m	Show
The Tigers are home. That's great news for the Twins since Detroit is 17-47 at home. The Twins are one of the better teams in baseball. They could break the single-season record for home runs during this series. That's how powerful they are. At this low road price, the Twins are a bargain versus this opponent. The pitching matchup is Martin Perez versus Matt Boyd. These two just faced each other six days ago in Minnesota. The Twins got to Boyd for seven earned runs in six innings, while Perez held the Tigers to two earned runs in six innings. Boyd still is getting some respect from the oddsmaker. He's perceived as Detroit's top pitcher. This isn't saying much. Boyd also hasn't been respectable like he was earlier in the season. He's allowed 19 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 21 innings. Boyd's ERA during his last 13 starts is a fat 6.05. He's also given up an average of 2.6 homers per nine innings in those last 13 outings. The Twins' power hitters should feast on him. Perez, by contrast, has allowed just four earned in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. The Twins' bullpen has been very good this month. Detroit has lost six in a row, averaging 2.8 runs per game during this losing streak. The Twins have won six straight. They are averaging 8.6 runs a game during their win streak. So, yeah, at this bargain price the Twins are worth laying road chalk.
08-30-19	Mets v. Phillies -131		11-5	Loss	-131	17 h 30 m	Show
There aren't many things the Phillies can count out. The one person they can rely on is Aaron Nola, who takes the mound here against the Mets. Nola is 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA in his last 13 starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of those 13 starts. Philadelphia is a dominant 30-11 (73%) in Nola's last 41 home starts. The Phillies have defeated the Mets seven of the past eight times when Nola has gone against them. The Mets are going with Zach Wheeler, who is back in bad form with a 6.75 ERA in his past three starts. New York has lost six straight games. The Mets have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last seven games.
08-28-19	Rangers v. Angels OVER 10		3-0	Loss	-100	11 h 9 m	Show
The Rangers are going to open with Emmanuel Clase. But from there the pitching matchup will be Ariel Jurado versus Patrick Sandoval. Need I say more? OK, both bullpens are overworked, depleted and bad. Jurado has a 7.52 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last eight starts. So why is he still in the Rangers' rotation? Good question. Sandoval is set to make his fourth career big league start, which is four too many given his track record. He has yet to win and carries a 6.75 ERA. The Rangers just saw Sandoval a week ago at home and got to him for four runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings. The Over has cashed in eight of the Angels' last nine home games.
08-28-19	Twins -1.5 v. White Sox	Top	8-2	Win	100	18 h 57 m	Show
The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank No. 2 in runs. The White Sox are 28th in runs and 26th in homers. Expect the Twins to pad their homer lead with the wind blowing out strong to left field at 13-16 mph and facing 33-year-old Ross Detwiler, who has surrendered 15 homers in 47 1/3 innings this season. Minnesota is 41-22 on the road. That's the second-most away wins in the majors. The Twins are 8-2 in Jake Odorizzi's last 10 road starts. Odorizzi is pitching on six days rest. That's important since he is 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA when he's pitched on extra rest this year.
08-27-19	Indians -131 v. Tigers	Top	10-1	Win	100	17 h 33 m	Show
If you can't beat righthanders you're not going to have a very good record. Detroit has the lowest winning percentage in baseball. One reason for this is the Tigers losing 45 of the past 55 times against a righty starter. Cleveland is going with righty Adam Plutko. He's settled into being a solid No. 4 type pitcher for Cleveland with a 3.53 ERA in his past six starts. The Indians are 11-4 in Plutko's last 15 starts. The Tigers are going with Spencer Turnbull, who hit the wall a long time ago. Detroit is 1-10 in Turnbull's last 11 home starts. The Indians were idle Monday giving them an extra day to stew about a tough 9-8 Sunday loss to the Royals. Cleveland should take out its frustrations on its favorite patsy as Detroit is 1-12 versus the Indians this season.
08-26-19	Dodgers v. Padres +147	Top	3-4	Win	147	22 h 45 m	Show
I don't normally go against the Dodgers. But they are 34-28 on the road. That's certainly respectable, but nothing like their mind-boggling 52-18 home record. The Dodgers have trouble when facing Eric Lauer. San Diego is 5-1 in Lauer's six career starts versus the Dodgers. Laurer has a 1.72 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in these appearances. The Dodgers are batting only .175 against Lauer this season. Lauer has a 3.10 home ERA on the season. The Padres are 5-2 in his past seven starts at Petco Park. The Dodgers have been in a scoring slump scoring three or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games. Dodgers rookie Dustin May has a high ceiling. But he's up-and-down right now. May last pitched eight days ago in relief. He gave up four runs on three hits and a walk in two innings versus the Braves. The Padres went up against May on Aug. 2 getting to him for four runs - three of which were earned - and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Padres have already set a franchise-record for home runs in a season with 190.
08-25-19	Braves +111 v. Mets		2-1	Win	111	11 h 44 m	Show
The Braves are the superior team. Steven Matz is a strong home pitcher for the Mets. But I like Dallas Keuchel and the hot Braves in an underdog role. Atlanta has won seven in a row. They have won 12 more games than the Mets. The Braves rank sixth in scoring. The Mets, by contrast, rate 16th in runs.
08-25-19	Braves v. Mets UNDER 9	Top	2-1	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
The pitching matchup, weather and home plate umpire. Plus line value. Add up all those factors and you understand why I like the Under here. Braves starter Dallas Keuchel has yielded just one run in his past two starts spanning 12 innings. He just faced the Mets 11 days ago and held them scoreless over five innings. The Under is 9-2-1 in Keuchel's 12 starts with the Braves. Steven Matz is pitching well for the Mets with a 1.89 ERA in his past three starts. Matz has been really solid during the second half of the season posting a 2.81 ERA during his last seven starts. He's surrendered two earned runs or fewer six times in this span. Matz is tough at Citi Field with a 2.08 home ERA this season. The wind is blowing in at 13 miles per hour and Gary Cederstrom is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed in 15 of his 24 games as home plate umpire this season for an Under percentage of 63 percent.
08-24-19	Angels v. Astros OVER 10	Top	2-5	Loss	-108	16 h 10 m	Show
Dillon Peters isn't fooling anyone. Now he faces the Astros, who rank in the top-5 in nearly all of the major hitting categories, including runs, batting average and homers. The southpaw Peters has a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts allowing 22 baserunners in 16 innings during this span. The Astros rank third in the majors in batting average and slugging percentage against lefthanders. Peters isn't likely to go deep into the game. The Angels' overworked bullpen is limping toward September, bruised and battered. The Angels could do damage, though, going against Wade Miley, who has surrendered six earned runs in his past two starts spanning nine innings. It could have been worse, too. Miley is lucky to have surrendered six runs in this time frame as he's allowed 19 hits in these last two outings. Houston's bullpen has been disappointing lately. The Astros are minus injured Ryan Pressly, one of the top setup men in baseball. The Angels have produced an average of 5.8 runs in their last 12 games.
08-23-19	Nationals v. Cubs -121		9-3	Loss	-121	13 h 29 m	Show
If the Cubs played all of their games at Wrigley Field they would rank with the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers as a super power. Chicago is 44-19 at home. The price is low enough to back the Cubs at home in a pitching matchup of Anibal Sanchez versus Jon Lester. The Cubs have won 74 percent of Lester's last 61 games at Wrigley Field. Lester looked back to normal during his last start going six shutout innings against the Pirates on the road last Saturday. The southpaw has a 3.13 day time ERA. The Nationals are just one game above .500 when facing a lefty starter. Sanchez may be hitting the wall. He's given up eight runs during his last two starts spanning nine innings. Sanchez has allowed 15 hits and five walks during these past nine innings. Chicago has rested Craig Kimbrel to close, while the Natoinals lack a closer with Sean Doolittle, their best reliever, on the DL.
08-22-19	Blue Jays v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	2-3	Loss	-124	20 h 43 m	Show
The Dodgers simply don't lose at home. They have won 79 percent of their last 57 home games going 45-12. No baseball team can match that. Toronto went through its bullpen trying to beat the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Blue Jays came close, but lost, 2-1, in 10 innings. I don't see the Blue Jays being able to hang against the Dodgers a second straight time in a pitching matchup of rookie Jacob Waguespack versus Kenta Maeda. Prior to Wednesday, the Dodgers' last six victories were by an average of 8.3 runs. Waguespack has a 4.20 ERA. The Dodgers rank in the top four in runs and homers. Maeda has a history of pitching much better at Dodger Stadium. That history has held up this season where he is 6-3 with a 2.84 ERA at home. LA has won eight of his past 11 home starts. Toronto has dropped 14 of its last 17 interleague games, including the past eight when going against a righty starter.
08-21-19	Indians +141 v. Mets		3-4	Loss	-100	16 h 16 m	Show
Sorry, but I'm not sold on the Mets as a serious playoff contender. Not when they aren't pitching Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard, which is the case here. New York is 19-5 in its last 24 games. But 16 of those victories have come against the Padres, Pirates, White Sox, Marlins and Royals. Those five teams are a combined 111 games under .500! The Indians have gone on a second-half surge to go 22 games above .500. They are 16-6 in their last 22 road games. Marcus Stroman goes for the Mets. New York is 3-0 in Stroman's three starts. However, Stroman has a 5.17 ERA in those outings. The Indians are averaging 6.2 runs in their last nine games. Adam Plutko is a bottom of the rotation starter for Cleveland. But he's decent. He just beat the Yankees - a far superior offensive team to the Mets - last Wednesday limiting the Yankees to three runs in six innings. Cleveland is 8-2 the past 10 times Plutko has started.
08-21-19	Angels v. Rangers -121	Top	7-8	Win	100	16 h 19 m	Show
I don't know if this is a case of giving Patrick Sandoval too much respect, or All-Star Mike Minor getting too little respect. It's likely a case of both. Nonetheless, the bottom line here is the Rangers are underpriced. Minor is worthy of being a much stronger favorite pitching at home against the Angels, who aside from superstar Mike Trout just aren't very good. Minor is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP during his last four starts. The lefty is 5-3 with a 3.25 ERA in a dozen home starts. He owns a 2.08 ERA and 3-0 mark the past two years in five starts against the Angels. LA is 17-25 versus southpaw starters on the season. The Angels also have dropped nine of their last 12 road matchups. Sandoval is one of those young Angels starters being force fed to major league hitters due to injuries and the untimely death of Tyler Skaggs. The lefty has a 5.79 ERA. He isn't ready, in my view, to be in a big league starting rotation. The Rangers are 6-2 the past eight times they've gone against a lefty starter.
08-20-19	White Sox v. Twins -1.5	Top	4-14	Win	100	17 h 59 m	Show
Returning home following a 5-1 road trip, the Twins were knocked off by the White Sox, 6-4, on Monday. It was just the fourth time in the last 15 meetings the White Sox have defeated Minnesota. I don't see the Twins losing a second straight time to Chicago at home. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez had been pitching well - until this past Thursday when he was tagged for five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank second in runs. Nelson Cruz, Minnesota's second-leading home run hitter with 32, has recovered from a wrist injury and is back in the lineup. Lopez has struggled versus Minnesota in his career with a 5.46 ERA in five starts. Twins starter Michael Pineda has been amazing consistent yielding three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts. Pineda has a 3.08 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in six starts. Minnesota has won by more than one run during 10 of its last 11 victories.
08-19-19	Nationals -120 v. Pirates	Top	13-0	Win	100	19 h 55 m	Show
The Orioles and Tigers are the two worst teams in baseball. Since the All-Star break, the Pirates can join those two teams in the discussion of who is the worst. Pittsburgh is 7-27 post All-Star break. Washington is 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Nationals have the third-best record in the National League. Yet we have a very low opening line lay price for the Nationals. Why is that since the Nationals clearly are at least two levels higher than Pittsburgh? Trevor Williams gets the start for the Pirates. But that doesn't answer the question since Williams hasn't been very good with a 6.92 ERA in his last seven starts spanning 39 innings. The Nationals are swinging extremely hot bats averaging 9.4 runs during their past seven games. The answer then may lie in who Washington is starting on the mound: Joe Ross. His season numbers show a 5.91 ERA. That is misleading, however. Ross has been the Nationals' top pitcher if you go by the past three starts. Ross has fixed his mechanics and made key adjustments. These changes have helped him go 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA in his past three starts spanning 18 innings. The Pirates have the better closer, Felipe Vazquez. The Nationals have upgraded their middle and setup relief, though. It's doubtful if the Pirates will even get to use Vazquez. Pittsburgh is averaging only two runs per game during its last four games. It's also a bad situational spot for the Pirates as they had to play in the Sunday night game, which was played in Williamsport, Pa., against the Cubs in the MLB Little League Classic.
08-18-19	Mets v. Royals UNDER 10	Top	11-5	Loss	-110	13 h 9 m	Show
When it comes to pitching at Kauffman Stadium, Glenn Sparkman isn't bad. He carries a 2.84 ERA in 12 home starts this season. I see Sparkman and his counterpart, Zach Wheeler, keeping this a low-scoring, tight game. Each pitcher is helped by the opposition's weak offense and this being a Sunday game where usually several starters are rested. The Mets' offense is average at best. New York has failed to score more than four runs in six of its last seven games. Wheeler has pitched much better in the second half of the season. He is a solid pitcher who tends to get overlooked being on the same staff as Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Wheeler has permitted three earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts. Kansas City has a bottom-four offense. The Royals are averaging only 2.5 runs during their last six games.
08-17-19	Marlins v. Rockies OVER 12		4-11	Win	100	17 h 19 m	Show
German Marquez is bad at home, which is understandable since home is Coors Field. Hector Noesi is bad no matter what field he pitches on. Match the two together at Coors Field and expect more than a dozen runs to be scored especially since the Marlins have a below average bullpen while Colorado's relief pitchers have been highly disappointing particularly Wade Davis. Noesi is 32. This is his third start. He's 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA. Those starts came in two pitcher's parks, too, Marlins Park and Citi Field against the Mets. Now Noesi toes the rubber in the premier hitter's park in the majors. Marquez isn't a bad pitcher. He just doesn't pitch well at Coors where his ERA is 6.45. The Over has cashed in eight of his last 10 home starts.
08-16-19	White Sox +115 v. Angels	Top	7-2	Win	115	20 h 48 m	Show
Injuries and the untimely death of Tyler Skaggs have left the Angels force-feeding young unprove pitching prospects. Southpaw Patrick Sandoval falls into that category. Sandoval draws the start here against All-Star Lucas Giolito. Sandoval has a 5.59 ERA in 9 2/3 innings. This will be his second big league start. He isn't ready to be pitching in the majors. The Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 games. They have a burned out bullpen and are extremely weak in the middle infield with underrated shortstop Andrelton Simmons out. Giolito hit a bump in a couple of July starts, but is back on track with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts in which he has fanned 30 batters in 19 innings. Chicago is 8-3 in Giolito's last 11 road starts. The White Sox are 12 games under .500 on the year. Hence, the Angels opening a favorite despite the huge starting pitching disparity. However, the White Sox are much better against lefthanded starters. Chicago's record versus lefties this season: 23-18. The White Sox are 6-1 the past seven times they've faced a southpaw starter.
08-15-19	White Sox +162 v. Angels		7-8	Loss	-100	21 h 54 m	Show
The oddsmaker is overlooking how well Reynaldo Lopez has been pitching and how strong the White Sox have been against lefthanded starters by making the Angels such a big favorite in a pitching matchup of Lopez versus southpaw Andrew Heaney. The White Sox are 11 games under .500 on the season. However, they are 23-17 against southpaw starters, including winning the past six times they have faced them. Heaney has been inconsistent and is rusty. This is only his second start in nearly a month as he been sidelined by shoulder inflammation. Heaney pitched 3 2/3 innings against the Red Sox in his last outing this past Saturday giving up one earned run. The Angels are vulnerable in the bullpen. The White Sox are 7-4 in their last 11 games and off a 13-9 victory against Houston. Lopez has been one of the best pitchers post All-Star break but remains below the radar. He has a 2.13 ERA in his last six starts surrendering just one homer during this span. Chicago is 5-1 in Lopez's past six road starts.
08-14-19	Mets v. Braves -131		4-6	Win	100	18 h 54 m	Show
This matchup pits a battle of lefty starters, Steven Matz versus Dallas Keuchel. I want Keuchel and the Braves going for me. Atlanta is 17-10 versus southpaw starters, including winning 11 of the last 16 times when drawing a lefthanded starter. The Mets have a losing record when going up against a lefty starter. Keuchel won't lack motivation coming off his worst as a Brave. He was racked for eight runs on 10 hits in only 3 2/3 innings this past Thursday against the Marlins in Miami. The prideful Keuchel is much better than that. He has made four home starts for the Braves and has a 2.96 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in those games. The Mets have never faced him. New York also is likely to be without second baseman Jeff McNeil, the second-leading hitter in the NL. McNeil suffered a leg injury on Tuesday night. Matz has a 6.23 ERA in three starts against the Braves this year The Mets have lost five of Matz's last six away starts.
08-14-19	Pirates v. Angels UNDER 10	Top	4-7	Loss	-120	18 h 33 m	Show
On the surface it seems like there could be double-digit runs scored in this game. But there are key below-the-radar elements that point to the Under getting the money. Chris Archer has been a major disappointment. Lately, though, Archer has been better. He has given up three earned runs in his last two starts going six innings each time. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in these two outings is 15-to-2. Angels starter Dillon Peters has been respectable since coming up from the minors. He's allowed eight runs in his past four starts spanning 22 2/3 innings. He has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his past two starts. This is a rare 5:05 PDT start time in Anaheim. The Angels usually start their evening games two hours later. Shawdows are extremely tough on the batters during the first few innings when the Angels play at home during this time. Note, too, that Cory Blaser is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 96-68 (59 percent) the past six seasons when Blaser has been behind the plate.
08-13-19	Mets v. Braves -123		3-5	Win	100	18 h 8 m	Show
The Braves are better than the Mets. The Braves are home and I don't see Zach Wheeler having any edge on lefty Max Fried. So at this price, the Braves are a bargain. Wheeler has been pitching well. I like him. But he's not in the Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard talent level. Wheeler has a 4.50 ERA in two starts versus Atlanta this season. Fried has posted a solid 3.32 ERA in his past four starts with 25 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings during this span. The Mets hold a losing record versus southpaw starters. Atlanta does have bullpen concerns. But so do the Mets. Edwin Diaz has an 11.12 ERA in his last six appearances. The Braves are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Mets.
08-13-19	Mariners +151 v. Tigers		11-6	Win	151	18 h 57 m	Show
Anytime the Tigers are laying this kind of price, I'm at the window fading them. Detroit has lost 41 of its last 51 games. They are an MLB-worst 16-41 at Comerica Park. Ty Cobb would be rolling around in his grave if he could witness how bad these Tigers are. The Tigers are big chalk because supposedly they have their best pitcher, Matthew Boyd, going while Seattle is pitching Yusei Kikuchi, who hasn't won during his past seven starts. Kikuchi pitched well, though, in his last outing holding the Padres to one run on four hits in five innings with eight strikeouts this past Wednesday. Boyd was terrible during his last start getting rocked for five runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Royals this past Thursday. Boyd yielded six hits, including three homers in that loss. Detroit has dropped 13 of Boyd's last 16 starts. Seattle, like the rest of the American League, knows how to beat the Tigers. Seattle is 17-4 in its past 21 games versus Detroit.
08-11-19	Indians v. Twins -143	Top	7-3	Loss	-143	13 h 45 m	Show
The Twins are 25-10 the past 35 times Jose Berriors pitches at home. One of those losses, though, occurred the last time Berrios pitched at Target Field. That came this past Tuesday against Atlanta. The Braves blasted Berriors scoring nine runs on him in fewer than six innings. It was one of Berrios' worst days of his career. Prior to that, however, Berrios had gone 12 straight starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. He is an elite pitcher and extremely reliable. His home ERA is 3.15. His day time ERA is 3.20 I trust Berrios to come back strong following that rare humiliation. He's facing rookie Aaron Civale, who will be making back-to-back big league starts for the first time. This will be the toughest test Civale has faced. Minnesota ranks first in the majors in homers and is second in runs. The Indians, by contrast, rate 20th in homers and 19th in runs.
08-10-19	A's v. White Sox +159	Top	2-3	Win	159	18 h 50 m	Show
Reynaldo Lopez is flying below the radar screen. Tanner Roark should never be a favorite in this high range. But the two together and you have a strong underdog value play on the White Sox. Lopez has been one of the hotter post All-Star break pitchers going 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA in his last five starts. Lopez has 34 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings during this span. Lopez has tamed the A's during his career, too, with a 1.50 lifetime ERA against them in two starts. Roark is a true mediocrity with a 7-7 mark and 4.14 ERA. Oakland has a losing record in his last seven road contests.
08-07-19	White Sox -105 v. Tigers	Top	8-1	Win	100	11 h 16 m	Show
The 1899 Cleveland Spiders. The 1962 New York Mets. The 2019 Detroit Tigers. Yes the Tigers are getting to be historically that bad having lost 30 of their last 35 home games. Detroit is 9-48 in its last 57 games against a righty starter and draw a hot Ivan Nova here. Nova is pitching his best ball of the season and maybe of his career with a 0.90 ERA during his last three starts. He's held the Marlins, Twins and Phillies to two earned runs in 20 innings during this span giving up 11 hits and three walks. The Tigers are second-to-last in runs, have only one decent starter and a terrible bullpen. The result is the worst record in baseball at 33-77. Lefty Tyler Alexander gets the call for Detroit. He has a 4.50 ERA. The White Sox are at their best versus southpaws compiling a 21-17 mark against them. Chicago is 5-1 in its last six road games when facing a lefty starter.
08-06-19	Braves v. Twins -150		12-7	Loss	-150	17 h 43 m	Show
On paper this may look like a close matchup. In reality it's not. The Twins are much the superior team and have a huge starting pitching edge. These factors are enough to justify laying this price. Atlanta is just 8-11 in its last 19 games. I don't see the Braves defeating Jose Berrios in Minnesota. Berrios has cemented his status as an elite pitcher. He's in tremendous form, too, with a 1.82 ERA in four starts following the All-Star break. Berrios has the third-lowest ERA in the American League at 2.80 and sixth-best WHIP in the AL at 1.10. The Twins have won 25 of Berrios' last 34 home starts, a winning percentage of 74 percent. While Berrios has lived up to his vast potential, Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has gone far downhill after making the All-Star team last year. Bothered by a sore elbow, Foltynewicz has been terrible with a 2-5 record and 6.37 ERA. Atlanta is 4-9 in his last 13 starts. Foltynewicz has been so bad he was sent to the minors. Now he's back up. I remain highly skeptical. Foltynewicz has been prone to the long ball surrendering 16 bombs in 59 1/3 innings. The Twins lead the majors in homers and are on pace to easily surpass their franchise best for homers in a season. The Braves picked up several prominent relief pitchers at the trade deadling, including Shane Greene. But so far they have looked terrible.
08-06-19	A's +129 v. Cubs	Top	11-4	Win	129	17 h 41 m	Show
We have a pair of lefty starters going here - Brett Anderson versus Jon Lester. Anderson has been solid on the road while Lester usually is tough at Wrigley Field. Oakland, though, is 19-8 this season versus southpaw starters, including winning five of its past six away games against them. Anderson's road numbers are a very respectable 5-2 record with a 3.49 ERA. He has limited 11 of his last 13 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. The A's have won Anderson's last six away outings. The Cubs hold a losing mark going against lefthanders. They also have a cluster injury situation in their bullpen and are without a closer. Chicago is minus injured catcher Wilson Contreras, too.
08-05-19	Phillies -102 v. Diamondbacks	Top	7-3	Win	100	19 h 10 m	Show
I see the Phillies bouncing back against the Diamondbacks after losing at home to the White Sox on Sunday. Philadelphia is 7-1 the past eight times following a defeat. The Phillies have a pitching edge here both at starter in the bullpen where Arizona is vulnerable in middle relief and doesn't have a closer. Archie Bradley got the save for Arizona on Sunday but he had to log two innings and 28 pitches to do it. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has been bad for more than a month. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in his last six starts. Kelly has been racked for 14 earned runs in his last two starts spanning just 8 1/3 innings. He's been tagged for five homers during this short time frame. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is pitching well giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. The righty has struck out 15 during this span. The Diamondbacks have a losing record against righthanded starters.
08-05-19	White Sox -118 v. Tigers		7-4	Win	100	7 h 49 m	Show
It doesn't take much for me to want to fade the Tigers. A good price and a return to form of Lucas Giolito are enough to get me involved here with the White Sox. Chicago just took two of three from the Phillies in Philadelphia. The White Sox have their bats going again. Giolito displayed his All-Star form giving up just one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start against the Mets. Previous to that performance, Giolito was 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA in four starts. The start against the Mets was huge for Giolito because he said he was back in rhythm and had made key adjustments. The Tigers have the worst offense in the majors. They are 14-55 in their last 69 games and have lost 29 of their past 33 games at Comerica Park. Spencer Turnbull will be starting for Detroit and he'll be on a pitch count since he's coming off IL. The Tigers' lone reliable reliever, Shane Greene, was traded to the Braves.
08-04-19	Tigers +1.5 v. Rangers		4-9	Loss	-117	7 h 40 m	Show
Detroit is the worst team in baseball. However, if you add 1 1/2 runs the Tigers are 8-4 in their last 12 games. The Tigers have lost by identical 5-4 scores during the first two games of this series. Before slipping past the Tigers during the past two games, the Rangers were 8-18 in their last 26 games. They have no business laying this high of a price especially with rookie Pedro Payano drawing the start. Payano is making his second big league start after being in the bullpen. He had a 4.40 ERA in the minors before coming up to the Rangers. Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann finally picked up his first victory of the year in his last start holding the Angels to two runs in 5 1/3 innings.
08-04-19	Mets v. Pirates UNDER 8.5	Top	13-2	Loss	-111	5 h 12 m	Show
Both teams have below average offenses and are running into pitchers in good form especially the Pirates. Pittsburgh draws Noah Syndergaard, who has looked like his old self after a slow start. Syndergaard has a 1.91 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break with 36 strikouts in 28 1/3 innings during this span. He has a 1.77 ERA in three starts against the Pirates. Pirates starter Joe Musgrove looked good in his last outing holding the Reds to two runs on five hits in six innings. Musgrove has allowed one run in 9 1/3 lifetime innings against the Mets.
08-04-19	White Sox +146 v. Phillies		10-5	Win	146	5 h 43 m	Show
This has been a super competitive series with each of the first two games decided by one run. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez has been pitching his best ball posting a 2.05 ERA ERA since the All-Star break. Opponents are hitting just .194 against him during this span. The Phillies are hoping they caught lightning in a bottle with lefty Drew Smyly. He's given up one run in 13 innings during his two starts with Philadelphia since coming from the Rangers. I don't believe Smyly suddenly has turned good. He was 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA with the Rangers. The White Sox are at their best against lefty pitchers compiling a 19-17 mark versus southpaw starters.
08-03-19	Cardinals v. A's -130	Top	3-8	Win	100	14 h 26 m	Show
Mike Fiers may be the most underrated pitcher in the American League especially when he pitches at home where he is 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA. Fiers hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a game during his last 17 starts. Only Gerrit Cole has had a lower ERA in the American League since April 26 than Fiers. The Cardinals are playing well. However, the Oakland Coliseum is a tough place for visitors especially those who don't play there very often. Better teams than the Cardinals have gotten tripped up playing in the spacious and weird configurations of Oakland Coliseum. It's not a fluke the A's have won 11 of their last 15 home interleague games. St. Louis also is without three of its key players as Yadier Molina, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Carpenter are all injured. The Cardinals need a strong starting pitcher here and I don't see Dakota Hudson fitting that profile. He is bottom-of-the-rotation quality with a 4.63 ERA in his last seven starts.
08-03-19	Blue Jays v. Orioles +116		4-6	Win	116	12 h 21 m	Show
The Blue Jays gutted their team at the trade deadline. So I'm not making much of their five-game win streak. It has come against the Royals and Orioles. I like the home 'dog Orioles here because of the starting matchup. It's converted reliever Thomas Pannone against Dylan Bundy. Bundy has a strong history versus the Bule Jays with a 3.23 lifetime ERA in 12 appearances. He's 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA against Toronto this season. Pannone has a 5.98 ERA. This is fifth start of the year. He has been at his worst on the road where he is 0-3 with a 7.89 ERA.
08-03-19	Marlins v. Rays OVER 8.5		6-8	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
Tampa Bay may come close to covering this total by itself. The Rays are averaging 8.4 runs in their last five games. The Rays draw Elieser Hernandez, one of the Marlins' young pitchers learning on the job. Hernandez has an ERA of close to 5.00 and probably isn't going to go deep into the game. The Marlins do not have an established closer after dealing Sergio Romo. The Marlins should be able to put up their share of runs against Diego Castillo and what is going to be a parade of Rays relievers to follow as this is a bullpen game for Tampa Bay. Castillo has a 5.40 ERA versus the Marlins in four career appearances. Miami is expected to get Garrett Cooper back. He hasn't been starting because of a hamstring injury. Cooper leads the Marlins in batting at .292.
08-02-19	Giants v. Rockies -130		4-5	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
Step to the head of the line if you knew the Giants finished with the best record in July. San Francisco went 19-6 last month. Regression is coming, though, because the Giants aren't nearly that tough. The Giants are in trouble in this matchup having to go with Shaun Anderson, their one starter who wasn't good in July. The league has caught up to the rookie Anderson, who went 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in five starts last month. Anderson couldn't reach the sixth inning in any of those starts. The Giants' setup relief is down after a series of trades. Anderson hasn't been good either away from spacious Oracle Park with a 5.65 ERA in eight road starts. Opposing batters are hitting .306 against him on the road. Now Anderson is pitching at Coors Field, the premier hitter's park in the majors. Anderson pitched at Colorado last month and gave up five runs in 4 1/3 innings. The Rockies are going to be extra motivated for this series after being swept four games at home by the Giants last month. Even with that sweep, San Francisco still has lost 19 of the past 26 times at Coors. Rockies starter Peter Lambert has shown positive signs of breaking out of his slump. He has a respectable 3.86 ERA in his last three starts with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span.
07-31-19	Brewers v. A's -122	Top	4-2	Loss	-122	17 h 29 m	Show
The Brewers have their strengths. But playing on the West Coast in a big ballpark that negates their power is not one of them. That's the situation the Brewers find themselves in against Oakland. The pitching matchup clearly favors the A's, too, and the price is low enough to back the home chalk. Milwaukee is hoping Jordan Lyles can step up. That's asking a lot given Lyles' current form, which shows 20 earned runs in his last four starts spanning just 11 innings. Lyles has surrendered nine homers during this brief time frame. The A's are 9-2 (82%) in their last 11 home games. They are going with Brett Anderson, a crafy southpaw who can frustrate the Brewers. Anderson has allowed three earned or fewer in 10 of his past 12 starts. Milwaukee is 2-9 in its last 11 away contests versus a lefty starter.
07-30-19	Diamondbacks v. Yankees OVER 11.5	Top	4-2	Loss	-110	14 h 44 m	Show
This is a big total. But it's not big enough given the pitching matchup, circumstances and numbers. The pitching matchup: Taylor Clarke versus lefty J.A. Happ. Clarke is terrible. I rate him in the last level of starting pitchers. Happ has the highest ERA of any Yankees starting pitcher at 5.23. Happ is facing an Arizona team that ranks second in the majors in batting average and third in slugging percentage versus lefthanded pitching. Clarke probably kept his spot in Arizona's starting rotation - at least for this game - by pitching decently against the Orioles during his previous outing when he allowed two runs in six innings. That was at home against a very bad Orioles squad that ranks 26th in runs. Now Clarke pitches at Yankee Stadium for the first time against a foe that has hit the second-most homers and scored the second-most runs in the majors. Clarke may not have his full concentration either since his wife gave birth to a girl this past Thursday. Clarke has a 6.10 ERA. He has surrendered 13 homers in 51 2/3 innings. Both bullpens are not in good form. Arizona is searching for a closer. Free Tuesday Play Mariners plus $1.18 at Rangers One of the better starting pitchers this month is Mike Leake. Yeah, that Mike Leake. He's quietly posted a 2-1 record with a 2.59 ERA in four July starts. One of those victories came against the Rangers six days ago, 5-3. Leake held Texas to three runs in seven innings. Leake has a 22-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his past four outings. Seattle has been below-the-radar, too, winning its last five games. The Mariners have allowed just 10 runs during their five-game win streak. The Rangers have fallen back to Earth losing 11 of their last 14 games. They are 7-17 during their past 24 games and are looking to deal their best pitcher, Mike Minor, realizing that making the postseason is not a realistic goal anymore. Texas is 1-7 the past eight times facing a righty starter. The Rangers also are without their top power hitter with Joey Gallo sidelined. I like Leake in his current form better than Texas starter Ariel Jurado, who is 2-4 with a 5.45 ERA in 10 home starts. The Mariners' bullpen is bolstered by the return of Hunter Strickland. The Rangers, by contrast, have one of the worst bullpens and it's made worse by their closer, Shawn Kelley, being out.
07-29-19	Diamondbacks v. Marlins -102	Top	6-11	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
What we're getting here is a great price with the superior starting pitcher, home club and an underrated team. The Marlins have actually been better than the Diamondbacks during the last 60-some games. Miami is 30-32 in its last 62 games, while the Diamondbacks are 28-33 in their last 61 games. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly was battered for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings against the Orioles this past Tuesday. He has a 4.68 road ERA. His July ERA is 5.31. Miami starter Caleb Smith is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four July starts. Smith is a strong strikeout pitcher who is at his best pitching at Marlins Park where he is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting less than .200 against him. Discount a nine-run scoring game on Saturday and the Diamondbacks are averaging 2.5 runs during their last four games. They were 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position on Sunday in a 5-1 loss to the Marlins. Now they draw Miami's best pitcher.
07-28-19	Twins v. White Sox OVER 10.5	Top	11-1	Win	100	10 h 26 m	Show
The combination of the Twins' offense and the White Sox starting Dylan Covey should result in this game going above the total. Minnesota ranks in the top three in a number of major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers. Covey is one of the worst starters in the majors. He's 1-6 with a 6.04 ERA. His day time ERA is even worse at 7.08. Twins starter Kyle Gibson is coming off a tough outing giving up five runs on seven hits and three walks in five innings during a 14-12 loss to the Yankees this past Tuesday. The weather forecast is for wind to be blowing out to left at 10-11 mph with temperatures in the high 80s. So ideal conditions for the hitters.
07-27-19	Astros -1.5 v. Cardinals		8-2	Win	100	13 h 31 m	Show
The Cardinals are hot, but they are not beating Gerrit Cole. The Astros are healthy for the first time with the return of star shortstop Carlos Correa, who had missed 50 games because of a broken rib. Houston has been playing well, too, winning seven of its last nine. Cole was named AL Pitcher of the Month in June. He hasn't leveled off this month going 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in four July starts. Cole leads the majors in strikeouts. He has a 2.03 ERA during his past seven starts. Daniel Ponce de Leon is the Cardinals' No. 5 pitcher. He's failed to finish four innings during each of his last two starts, both of which came against the Pirates. Now he steps way up in class.
07-26-19	Rangers v. A's -109		5-2	Loss	-109	19 h 0 m	Show
The Rangers nailed the A's, 11-3, Thursday night catching the A's flat after Oakland had just returned from a seven-game road trip. The A's should be on firmer ground in this second game of the series. Lance Lynn is having a strong season for Texas. But he is not in good form right now surrendering nine earned runs, 15 hits and three walks with three homers during his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Oakland starter Daniel Mengdon is 5-0 in nine appearances, including five starts, since losing his season debut on May 12. He won't have to deal with the Rangers' top power hitter, injured Joey Gallo. The A's have a huge bullpen edge. Oakland has defeated Texas in 15 of the past 20 meetings.
07-26-19	Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 11.5		5-10	Loss	-110	16 h 2 m	Show
Yes, the Red Sox battered the Yankees, 19-3, Thursday night. But no key relievers were used as the Red Sox put the game away early. This is a different day with different starting pitchers. James Paxton and Andrew Cashner are veterans, who should be able to keep their respective teams in the game. Paxton has turned in three quality appearances during his last four starts. He is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA in five career starts against the Red Sox. Cashner has a 3.96 career ERA against the Yankees in 10 starts. The Yankees' offense takes a hit with Gary Sanchez out.
07-26-19	Pirates +161 v. Mets		3-6	Loss	-100	13 h 19 m	Show
The Pirates are in a slump. But the Mets have no business laying a price this high when Jacob deGrom isn't pitching. The pitching matchup is Dario Agrazal versus Zach Wheeler, who is coming off a stint on the injured list due to shoulder fatigue. Agrazal isn't a prize rookie. But he has been decent and is floating below the radar screen having allowed one run during three of his last four starts while reaching the sixth inning each time. The Pirates have the better bullpen especially with Edwin Diaz questionable after taking a liner off his foot Thursday. Wheeler last pitched on July 7 when he gave up six runs in five innings to the Phillies. Wheeler has a 4.69 ERA on the season. Agrazal, by comparison, has a 2.25 ERA.
07-25-19	Rangers v. A's -168		11-3	Loss	-168	18 h 24 m	Show
The Rangers are a clear fade right now. They have lost nine of their last 10 and the reality of them not being a legitimate playoff team has become evident. I don't see Texas turning things around in this matchup of Ariel Jurado versus Brett Anderson. Jurado is having a brutal July with an 0-3 record and 8.31 ERA. He has allowed 16 runs and 24 hits during his last four appearances spanning 17 1/3 innings. Jurado has a 12.79 ERA in two appearances against the A's last year. The A's are one game up on Tampa Bay for the last wild card spot in the AL. So the A's should be very focused returning from a seven-game road trip. They are 6-3 against the Rangers this season, including 3-0 at home. Anderson is pitching well with a 2-0 mark and 2.36 ERA during his last four starts. He likely won't have to deal with Joey Gallo, the Rangers' home run leader, who has a wrist injury.
07-25-19	Indians -136 v. Royals		5-4	Win	100	17 h 33 m	Show
The price is short enough to ride the Indians, who are making a move winning nine of their last 11 games and are 30-12 in their last 42 games. Adam Plutko is coming off a strong start for the Indians. Cleveland is 5-1 in Plutko's last six starts. The Royals are in a rare flat spot having just swept a two-game road series against the Braves. The Indians should encounter little difficulty facing Mike Montgomery. They just went against Montgomery six days ago and racked him for five runs and six hits in just two-plus innings.
07-24-19	Orioles v. Diamondbacks OVER 9	Top	2-5	Loss	-107	11 h 3 m	Show
Rookie southpaw John Means is overacheiving for the Orioles. Arizona starter Taylor Clarke is just plain bad. It's a combination that should ensure a double-digit final total especially given how well the Diamondbacks hit lefties. Arizona is batting .285 versus souhtpaws. That's the second-highest mark in the majors. The Diamondbacks also rank No. 3 in slugging percentage and are fourth in OBP against lefthanders. Means has surrendered five homers in his last three starts. He's not helped by a bottom-five bullpen. Clarke has a 5.90 ERA in seven home starts. His ERA on the season is 6.50 with a 1.64 WHIP. This may be the last chance to either go against him, or take the Over, because Clarke surely isn't going to last much longer on a big league roster. Another plus for the Over is Nic Lentz being slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 32-24 (57%) the past two years when Lentz has been behind the plate.
07-23-19	Marlins -123 v. White Sox		5-1	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
I'd rather not lay a price when it's bad on bad like this matchup is. But I really like Caleb Smith and hate Dylan Covey. Smith is one of the more promising and below-the-radar pitchers in baseball. Covey is one of the worst with a 5.83 ERA. Covey is 0-3 with a 6.49 in interleague play. The Marlins are 8-1 when Smith has pitched against a foe with a losing record.

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