Both pitchers, Kyle Hendricks and Stephen Strasburg, pitched well down the stretch. But postseason baseball is different and 7 is too low of a total considering the caliber of these offenses. The Cubs scored the fourth-most runs in the majors this year. The Nationals were fifth in runs scored.  Both teams are healthy with their key bats in place. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner have had enough bats to get the rust off. 

There is a lot of value taking Boston at this plus price.  Lefty Drew Pomeranz isn't getting enough respect here. He went 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA on the road this season and was 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two starts against Houston. Pomeranz is in good form, too, giving up fewer than two runs in three of his last four starts.  The Astros are just 21-24 against lefthanded starters. The Red Sox have won 17 of the last 21 times Pomeranz has pitched versus an above .500 team.  I like Dallas Keuchel. But he last pitched way back on Sept. 26. Houston is 2-6 the last eight times Keuchel has pitched with nine or more days rest. Boston has the superior bullpen, too, with a 3.15 ERA compared to Houston's bullpen ERA of 4.27. 
 

Even with two big name pitchers going, this total is too low considering how strong the offenses are. Houston led the majors in nearly all the major offensive categories, including runs and batting average. The Astros also hit the second-most homers.  Boston doesn't have Houston's power, but the Red Sox finished 10th in runs. The Red Sox know how to manufacture runs.  While Justin Verlander has pitched well in all five of his Houston starts, Boston starter Chris Sale has been terrible down the stretch going 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA in his last eight starts. Sale has surrendered nine homers during his past five starts.  It's certainly not too much to ask these offenses to produce at least three runs apiece. Sale is not the Sale he was early in the season. Verlander has been pitching great, but he's past his prime. 

Chris Sale hasn't been an underdog all season - until now. There's good reason for this. Sale is worn down. This isn't the star lefty who went 14-4 with a 2.51 ERA during his first 24 starts, but the southpaw who is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA during his past eight starts. Sale surrendered four homers to the Blue Jays in his last start. Sale is facing an opponent that led the majors in runs and batting average while finishing No. 2 in homers. The Astros also compiled the second highest OPS versus southpaws. On the flip side, Houston starter Justin Verlander is pitching his finest ball going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts with the Astros. Unlike Sale who has no playoff experience, Verlander is a proven postseason performer with a 3.39 ERA in 16 career playoff starts.  The Astros have the stronger offense and the better pitcher going. The price is lower than it should be based on Sale's reputation. That reputation, though, should just be for the first four months of the season not October. 

Jon Gray and Zack Greinke enter this matchup in good form and with strong track records. Since this is a one-and-done scenario, starting pitchers will be available to pitch if needed in the later innings.  The Diamondbacks are heavy favorites so the game is likely to go 8 1/2 innings instead of nine. Please note, too, that the roof will be closed at Chase Field. That's a huge plus for the Under.  Gray should be fresh having been limited to 20 starts due to early-season injuries. Only twice did he allow more than three earned runs in his starts. He has a 2.44 ERA since the beginning of August.  Greinke regained his elite form with a strong comeback season going 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Greinke has a 215-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Opposing hitters are batting only .207 against Greinke at Chase Field.  Both teams lack playoff experience so that could affect the offenses, too. 

The Yankees have loads of young talent. But that young talent is now on the playoff stage for the first time with all the pressure on them.   The Twins aren't flashy. They don't have the power, or rising superstarts, the Yankees do. But they don't beat themselves and are tough on the road going 44-37.  The pitching matchup is 23-year-old Luis Severino, making his first playoff start, against veteran Ervin Santana.  This isn't a fade on Severino, who had his breakout season. But more a value play to get 1 1/2 runs with the Twins figuring Santana will keep them in the game.  Santana went 10-3 on the road with a 2.71 ERA in 17 away outings. He's been solid versus the Yankees the past three seasons posting a 3.16 ERA in 25 2/3 innings. 

I like the value here. The Twins have clinched a playoff spot and will be resting regulars just like on Saturday when Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton didn't play.  Oh, yes, Bartolo Colon is starting for Minnesota. The washed-up 44-year-old is 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in his last four starts.  Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez is in much better form turning in quality starts during his last three outings. Sanchez has allowed four earned runs in 18 innings during this span. 

This is a special game for the Giants because it's the last start for Matt Cain, who is retiring when the season finishes Sunday. Cain has had a nice career with the Giants. But there's a reason he's retiring: He's a shot pitcher.  Cain has nothing left. Sentimentally doesn't retire hitters. Cain is 3-11 with a 5.66 ERA on the season.  Padres starter Jhoulys Chacin has been much worse on the road where he's 4-7 with a 6.93 ERA.  Both pitchers have been bad in day games. Chacin has a 4.78 day time ERA while Cain is 0-4 with an 8.06 ERA when he's pitched during the day. There's about a 10 mph wind blowing out to help the hitters, too. 

The Indians are 34 games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cleveland is 41-10 in its last 51 games. But don't expect the Indians to coast. That's because they are only one game ahead of Houston for the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs.  The key here to avoid such heavy juice is to lay 1 1/2 runs with the Indians. Cleveland's last five victories have all been by more than one run.  That should be the case again today in a pitching matchup of Mike Pelfrey versus Trevor Bauer, who has finally lived up to his vast promise. Bauer has 16 victories and been a moster during the second half of the season going 9-1 with a 2.69 ERA during his last 13 appearances, including 12 starts. It's a mystery how Pelfrey stays in a big league rotation. He's one of the worst starters in baseball. He's 3-11 this season with a 5.52 ERA. He's made three appearances against the Indians this season and is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA. The Indians faced him three weeks ago and got to him for seven runs on eight hits in four innings.  The White Sox have lost 37 of their last 52 road games and are 0-7 in Pelfrey's last seven starts. 

Cleveland is the hottest team in baseball winning 30 of its last 33 and Carlos Carrasco is one of the hottest pitchers going 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last six starts.  Carrasco is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two games against Minnesota this season. The Indians are 9-2 in his last 11 home starts.  The Twins did a lot of celebrating last night after clinching a playoff spot. They are going to be very flat especially with this being a very early start time.  The Twins' bullpen is overworked and starter Ervin Santana has a far more important start next week when he faces either the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs. 

Given all the Mets injuries, the Braves are the better team. Atlanta also has the better pitcher going and superior closer.  Lefty Sean Newcomb is pitching much better than when he came up, having cut down his walk ratio. Atlanta is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Newcomb has given up three runs or fewer during his last four starts.  Newcomb just beat the Mets at home, 3-2, 11 days ago as a $1.20 favorite. He went 5 1/3 innings and had eight strikeouts with only one walk. The price is cheaper here.   New York is 3-13 the past 16 times facing a southpaw starter. The Mets also are 3-7 in Robert Gsellman's last 10 starts. Gsellman has regressed horribly this season after a promising 2016. He has a a 5.38 ERA and has pitched only marginally better since returning from a hamstring injury suffered in June.   The Mets could be without their two late-inning pitchers. A.J. Ramos is hurt and Jeurys Familia has pitched four of the last five days, including the past two going an inning on Monday and an inning on Tuesday.  Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino, who is better than Familia, is well rested. 

The A's and Kendall Graveman are below the radar. Oakland has won 14 of its last 19 games. The A's are getting strong offensive support and their bullpen has come around. Graveman has been doing his part. Graveman is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his last three starts. He's been very strong at home with a 5-0 mark and 2.79 ERA. He's also been good in day games with a 2-0 record and 3.20 ERA. Let's contrast this with Seattle starter Erasmo Ramirez, who is 1-6 with a 6.09 ERA on the road. His record during the day is 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA. The Mariners have lost 17 of 21 times that Ramirez has pitched against a division foe.  The Mariners are out of playoff contention, playing the string out. They are 3-8 in their last 11 games, scoring three runs or less in six of those games. 

Both the Twins and Indians average slightly better than five runs scored per game, each ranking in the top-six in this most important category.  The pitching matchup is Bartolo Colon versus Josh Tomlin in a battle of fifth-starter types. I see no reason why these two teams shouldn't match at least their season figure in runs scored especially given this starting pitching matchup.  Colon is 44 - and showing his age. He's completely worn down posting a 9.17 ERA in his four September starts. He was pounded for six runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his last start this past Wednesday. Colon really shouldn't be in the majors anymore. He was 2-8 with a hideous 8.14 ERA in 13 starts with the Braves before going to the Twins. He's posted a losing record with the Twins with a 5.33 ERA. The Indians are sacrificing some defense to get Jason Kipnis' bat in the lineup. The second baseman is now playing center field.  Tomlin has a 4.98 ERA. He doesn't pitch deep into games. The Twins have a good history against him. Tomlin has a losing record versus Minnesota with a 5.21 ERA in 17 appearances.  The Twins are swinging very hot bats scoring 39 runs in their last four games. 

The A's youth movement has been paying off. Playing without any pressure, Oakland has won seven in a row and 14 of its last 17 games. Only twice in their last nine games, have the A's surrendered more than three runs.  While morale is up with the A's the opposite is the case with Seattle. The Mariners were eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday after losing to the Indians at home. Seattle is 1-8 in its last nine games and could be resting regulars with its season finished.  The Mariners aren't likely to have injured shortstop Jean Segura. Speedy outfielder Jarrod Dyson already is out for the season. Without thow two, the Mariners have no running game.  The pitching matchup pits Felix Hernandez against Daniel Gossett. King Felix is on a downward slope. Bothered by shoulder problems, he's only 5-5 with a 4.57 ERA this year. Clearly, he's not the same pitcher.  The rookie Gossett has made 16 big league starts this season. He has a 5.38 ERA, but has been pitching better giving up three runs or fewer in each of his last four starts. 
 

It's the Angels who are chasing playoff hopes. But it's the White Sox who are playing better winning nine of their last 15 games. The Angels just ended a six-game losing streak by beating the Astros. That victory came in the Sunday night game in Houston. So the Angels are traveling after playing at night, a bad situational spot.  The White Sox are playing loose but playing hard. They have youngsters in their lineup, but these youthful players are highly talented. Chicago just took two of three from the Royals, who also held playoff aspirations.  The Angels are in must-win mode, which can lead to tightness.  The pitching matchup is Ricky Nolasco versus James Shields. That's bad versus bad so why not take a plus price in a battle of journeymen?  Nolasco hasn't won in his last six starts. He is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight lifetime starts against the White Sox.  Shields was one of the worst pitchers in baseball earlier in the season. But he's made some adjustments that have brought his ERA down. He does have a solid history versus the Angels with a 6-4 lifetime mark and 3.13 ERA in 14 startts. 

Even though the Nationals have nothing to play for, I still like them in an underdog role against the Phillies.  Washington has won seven of its last nine road games. The Nationals have had great success in Philadelphia winning 17 of the past 22 times there. The Nationals have excellent depth. The Phillies have been playing a lot of youth. So I'm fine if the Nationals choose to sit out a couple of regulars.  There's a strong possibility Bryce Harper returns to Washington's lineup today. Harper was batting .326 with 29 homers and 87 RBI's when he was injured on Aug. 12. He hasn't played since. There will be a buzz, if not outright spark for Washington, if Harper does play.  Nationals starter A.J. Cole has been pitching better with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander beat the Phillies at Citizens Band Park back in May holding the Phillies to one run in six innings. The Phillies have lost 69 percent of their last 96 games against righy starters.   Aaron Nola gets the call for the Phillies. He's had more difficulty against the Nationals than any other team with a 1-3 career record and 4.69 ERA. 

If these were normal circumstanes, I would never lay anywhere close to this price in a pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg versus Noah Syndergaard.  But they are not. Syndergaard is making his first appearance since April 30. He's only going to pitch one inning. Then Matt Harvey will take over. Harvey is trying to overcome his own injury woes. Since returning from the DL, Harvey has a 13.19 ERA in four starts. The Mets are letting Harvey pitch through his trouble. This sets up the Nationals offense, which ranks No. 3 in runs and batting average.  Strasburg has been dominant giving up only three runs in his last six starts spanning 41 innings. He has a 2.33 ERA in three starts versus the Mets this season.  The Nationals are 21-5 in Strasburg's last 26 road starts. Washington should have incentive, too, after blowing a five-run lead in a 7-6 loss Friday in the series opener. 

The Royals are in must-win mode trailing the Twins by 4 1/2 games for the final wild-card slot in the AL.  Kansas City catches a nice break here drawing White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey. There may not be a worst starting pitcher in the majors than Covey. Bad starters usually get yanked out of the rotation very soon. Not Covey. He's part of the White Sox rebuild, youth movement. So he keeps taking his turn in the rotation and the White Sox keep losing whenever he pitches. Covey has yet to win in 10 big league starts and 17 appearances. His ERA on the season is 8.18. Covery has surrendered 18 homers and 31 walks in 58 1/3 innings. Covey is 0-2 versus the Royals with a 6.61 ERA.  Danny Duffy gets the call for the Royals. Duffy was pitching well until going on the DL with a knee injury. He returned this past Sunday and held the red-hot Indians to one earned run on one hit with eight strikeouts in five innings. Duffy was limited to 65 pitches in that start. He'll go longer here. 

I see Tyler Anderson getting the job done for the Rockies against the weak hitting Padres. Anderson was dominant against San Diego this past Saturday giving up only two hits and two walks in six innings during a 16-0 romp. Since returning from the DL 11 days ago, Anderson is 2-0 and hasn't allowed a run in 10 innings. He carries a 0.73 lifetime ERA versus the Padres, too, in two starts.  The Padres are going with Clayton Richard, who has a 9.98 ERA in three starts versus Colorado this season. Lifetime, Richard has a 5.60 ERA against the Rockies in 18 appearances, including 17 starts.  The Rockies are the much stronger team and have playoff motivation. Given their pitching edge here, this is a short price to lay. 

He's far from a household name, but Luke Weaver may be the hottest pitcher in baseball. The Cardinals right-hander is 5-0 with a 1.15 ERA during his last five starts. The Cardinals have won these five games by a combined margin of 22 runs.  The Cardinals are in must-win mode trailing Colorado by 3 1/2 games for the second NL wild-card spot.  The Cardinals have gotten healthy, too, with power-hitting middle infielder Jedd Gyorko back on the field. Matt Carpenter should be in the lineup, too, after getting a day off on Tuesday.  The Reds are in rebuild mode pitching different rookies nearly every game. Today the Reds are going with one of their lesser arms, Rookie Davis. And, yes, Rookie is  rookie. He's 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA in five big league starts. 

Forget last night's 10-8 slugfest. There aren't going to be a combined nine runs scored in this one with a pitching matchup of Drew Pomeranz versus Kevin Gausman and the wind blowing in.  Pomeranz has been one of the hottest pitchers during the second half of the season going 7-1 with a 2.86 ERA in his past 12 starts. Pomeranz has been tough on Baltimore, too, this year going 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts.  Gausman is in excellent form, too. He's held seven of his last 11 opponents to one or no earned runs. The Red Sox have faced Gausman three times this year and are batting .226 against him.  Boston is likely to be minus injured Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez. 

This low price gets me involved with the Pirates here in a pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole versus Robert Stephenson. Cole isn't back to the ace status of two years ago, but he's been very solid. Cole has been especially strong on the road where his ERA is 2.90 during his past nine away starts. This includes a 1-0 win against the Reds on Aug. 26.  Cole won't have to deal with the most feared basestealer in baseball as Billy Hamilton is on the DL with a broken thumb. The Reds seem to be pitching rookies every day. Today they are going with Robert Stephenson, who has a 5.45 ERA and remains a work-in-progress with control problems. 

Cole Hamels has a strong history against the Angels with a 4-1 record and 2.87 ERA in nine career starts. He's 2-0 with a 2.36 ERA this season against them this season. Hamels is superior to Parker Bridwell, who has fallen back to Earth where he belongs. Birdwell last won on Aug. 13. He has an 11.25 ERA in his past three starts. 

I know the Pirates have been fade material this month, but I see this as a nice bounceback spot for them and Ivan Nova against Reds rookie Sal Romano. Nova has had a tough second half, but is a quality pitcher. The Pirates still have a number of quality hitters in their lineup, especially with Greogory Polanco back healthy.  Romano has a higher ERA than Nova and has suffered two losses to the Pirates already this season. He's allowed six runs in 11 2/3 innings against Pittsburgh.  

It's a testament on how washed-up Bartolo Colon is that he's being celebrated as coming through for the Twins when his ERA is 4.69 in 11 outings since joining Minnesota.  The 44-year-old Colon could be hitting the wall as the long season winds down. He couldn't get out of the second inning in his last start this past Sunday at Kansas City giving up six runs on six hits.  Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ, on the other hand, is in excellent form going 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA during his past three starts.  The Twins are only one game above .500 when playing at home.  Toronto has been very disappointing this season. But the Happ versus Colon mismatch is worth the small lay price on the visiting Blue Jays. 

The Phillies are supposed to be bad. But don't tell that to Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams. Sparked by these three youngsster - all of whom are batting .300 or above - the Phillies have won eight of their last 14 games. They are averaging 7.3 runs during their last six games.  The good times should roll on for at least another game as the Phillies match up against Daniel Mengden and an A's team that has the worst road mark in the majors at 22-49. Mengden will be making his fourth big league start. He has a 7.07 ERA.  Philadelphia starter Mark Leiter Jr. pitches much better at home where his ERA is 1.87.   

Even though they lost to Seattle Tuesday night, the Rangers have dominated the Mariners in Arlington winning eight of the past 10. Look for the Rangers to get back on track today in a pitching matchup of Mike Leake versus Martin Perez. Leake had hit a wall in St. Louis. Leake has temporarily found new life in Seattle winning both of his starts for the Mariners. I don't see things going smooth for him in this his third start as AL opponents are now up on him.  The Rangers have scored four or more runs in nine of their last 11 games and Arlington is a tough place to pitch at especially this time of year.  Perez doesn't get much respect. All he does, though, is win going 7-0 in his past seven outings. Only once during this span has Perez given up more than three runs.  

On paper, this is a marquee pitching matchup: Justin Verlander versus Garrett Richards.  Verlander can still bring it. He's 6-2 with a 2.33 ERA since the All-Star break. Only twice in his last 11 starts as he permitted more than two earned runs. Verlander was brilliant in his Astros debut last Tuesday against the Mariners. He'll be highly motivated here for new team. The Astros should be fully focused, too, after an embarrassing four-game sweep by the As.     Richards is pitching for just the third time, including minors, since being out five months with a biceps strain. He's going to be on a pitch count of around 65-70 pitches. So the Astros, the No. 1 offensive team in baseball, get Richards trying to find his way back and a vulnerable Angels bullpen.  Houston has had good success playing the Angels on the road winning 10 of the last 14.

I can see these two teams combining for double-digit runs at homer-friend Citzens Band Park with a rookie pitching matchup and a slight wind blowing out to right.  Marlins southpaw Dillon Peters has pitched two outstanding games. He makes his third big league start here with opponents now having a book on him. This should especially be the case with the Phillies, who faced him only 12 days ago.  The Phillies offense is better than perceived with Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr healthy, rookie power-hitter Rhys Hoskins making an impact and perennial disappointing Maikel Franco on a rare hot tear. They've helped the Phillies average 5.5 runs in their last seven games.  The Marlins and home run king Gincarlo Stanton should do plenty of damage against Nick Pivetta, who has a 6.49 ERA. That ERA balloons up to 7.11 ERA when facing the Marlins. This is his fourth start versus Miami. 
 Pivetta has had four terrible starts in his last seven outings and one below average one. The Phillies are letting Pivetta endure his growing pains in the majors since they are in rebuild mode. 

Dallas Keuchel is back to ace status with a 12-3 record and 2.88 ERA. He's coming off a strong performance against the Mariners holding Seattle to two runs on seven hits in 7 2/3 innings during a 6-2 win. Keuchel is 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in three starts versus Oakland this season. Don't expect the powerful Astros, with the No. 1 offense in the majors, to be overconfident, though. The Astros' pride is at stake having dropped the first three games of this series, including a doubleheader on Saturday.  I rate Keuchel as an "A" pitcher right. Oakland starter Kendall Graveman is a "C minus." He's not in good form either with a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts.  The oddsmaker knows all of this. That's why Houston is such a high road favorite. But I'm confident the Astros win in a blowout here so I'll lay the 1 1/2 runs at greatly reduced juice.

The Twins have lost the past four times they've pitched Jose Berrios against the Royals. I expect that streak to continue here especially with this game in Kanas City. Berriors has a very high ceiling. He's pitched well at home going 8-1 with a 2.56 ERA. But he's been another pitcher on the road where he's 4-6 with a 5.43 ERA. Minnesota is 0-8 during Berriors last eight road starts.  Berrios has an 8.20 career ERA versus Kansas City in four outings.  The Twins aren't likely to have their closer, Matt Belisle, either. He has pitched the past three days.  Royals starter Jake Junis isn't as highly regarded as Berrios. Junis, though, quietly has done a good job. He is 7-2, tied for the lead among American League rookies for victories. Junis is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts spanning 16 innings. He's posted an 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. 

Ricky Nolasco is Ricky Nolasco. He's epitomizes a journeyman who eats innings. Nolasco is 6-12 with a 5.08 ERA this season.  Mike Leake is set to make his second start for Seattle. His first came against the A's last week and was very good. I don't believe his second is going to go so well. Leake was being pounded during his last four starts with the Cardinals - 23 runs and 34 hits - before coming to the Mariners. Leake has said he has a tired arm. 

The combination of a total less than double-digits, wind blowing out and the top-ranked Astros offense facing Jharel Cotton puts me on the Over. I had high hopes before the season that Cotton was going to be a good pitcher. That hasn't happened. He has a 5.53 ERA and isn't improving. Cotton has yielded four or more runs in six of his last eight starts. He's surrendered 24 homers in 114 innings. Houston ranks first in runs, batting average and is No. 3 in homers.  Collin McHugh takes the hill for Houston. McHugh has pitched well, but he's far from dominant. The A's are averaging more than six runs per game during their last three games.  

This is a stop-the-pain game for the Marlins and a favorable matchup for them. 

 Miami has dropped four in a row. But the Marlins have the superior starter going in Dan Straily against Sean Newcomb and ripe circumstances. The Braves aren't playing that well either. They are 16 games under .500 and in full rebuild mode with three-fourths of their infield manned by rookies. Atlanta just played a wild doubleheader on Wednesday splitting against the Rangers with a combined 29 runs being scored. It's left the Braves bullpen carrying a high fatigue rating.   Newcomb doesn't go deep into games and walks too many batters averaging six bases on balls per nine innings. Newcomb hasn't been able to record an out past the fifth inning during his last three starts. Atlanta is 2-9 in his last 11 starts. Home run leader Gincarlo Stanton loves Atlanta's Sun Trust Park having homered three times there in six games.  Straily should do his part. He's 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts versus the Braves this season.  

Gio Gonzalez is having a huge season and he dominates the Marlins. Gonzalez is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts versus the Marlins this season. The last time he pitched against the Marlins was Aug. 9 when he threw seven innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts.  Gonzalez, who is from Miami, is 9-3 career-wise versus the Marlins with a 1.94 ERA in 15 starts.  Dillon Peterts is set to make his second big league start for the Marlins. Peters was brilliant in his debut throwing seven scoreless innings against the Phillies this past Friday. Opponents now know about Peters, though, and the Nationals have a much more potent lineup especially with Trea Turner and Jayson Werth back from injury.  The Marlins are at low ebb having lost eight of their past nine games to fall out of realistic playoff contention. Concentration could be a problem, too, for the Marlins as they are leaving town following this game. There is much concern about the expected effects of Hurricane Irma. The hurricane is due to strike the Miami area by Sunday morning. So it's understandable if the Marlins aren't completely focused.  

First off, this game is at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors.  Both starters, Michael Wacha and Travis Wood, have strong track records pitching at Petco. Wacha is 2-0 lifetime versus San Diego with a 1.89 ERA in three starts. Both of his victories against the Padres came at Petco.  The key is if Wacha is back on track. He had been in a slump, but pitched well in his last start this past Thursday. He held the Giants to one run on four hits in six innings. Yes that came against the weak-hitting Giants. But the Padres are the one team with a worse offense than the Giants. San Diego is last in runs and batting average. The Padres also have hit the second-fewest homers.  Wood is a journeyman. Normally I'd like to have a higher total to go under when he pitches. But these aren't normal circumstances because of the Cardinals' multiple injuries. Jedd Gyorko is on the DL. Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler and Kolton Wong all are nursing injuries. There's a chance none of them could be in the lineup leaving the Cardinals with a lot of youth and backup infielders filling up their lineup.  Wood has done well when pitching at Petco posting a 1.61 ERA in four starts there. The under is 13-6-1 in the Padres' past 20 home contests. 

The Cubs are looking to redeem themselves after an embarrassing 12-0 loss to the Pirates Monday. They have the right pitching matchup to accomplish just that. Kyle Hendricks led the NL in ERA last season. He's become steady again posting a 2.31 ERA in eight starts since coming off the DL. He hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of those eight outings. Hendricks has a 2.45 ERA in two starts versus Pittsburgh this season.  The Cubs have a deeper bullpen, too, than the Pirates and their top bullpen arms are rested.  The Pirates are in rebuilt mode. So they've elected to skip Ivan Nova's turn in the rotation in order to look at youngster Steven Brault, who isn't ready to become a big league starter yet. Brault has a 5.93 ERA in 13 2/3 innings. This is his first start of the year.  Brault made seven starts for the Pirates last season posting a 4.26 ERA. He holds a hideous 9.35 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in four appearances. 

Texas has been strong during interleague going 12-5. The Rangers should be focused trailing by three games for the second AL wild-card spot.  The Braves are going with a lot of youth with three-fourths of their infield being rookies. The only non-rookie in the infield is Freddie Freeman their best player. Freeman is having his wrist examined today so there's a chance he might not be in the lineup.  That would be a huge plus for Rangers starter Andrew Cashner, who has been pitching his most consistent ball of his career. Cashner has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less. He went 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA during July/August.  The Braves are pitching 42-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. There's always a wild card factor when a knuckleballer takes the mound. But the Rangers have incentive, are going with a hot pitcher and the youthful Braves may not have their full concentration since this is their first game back from a seven-game road trip. 
 

The Rays rank eighth in the majors in homers. They have hit at least one homer in 14 straight games. The Twins can't match that power.  The pitching matchup favors the Rays, too, with Jose Berrios versus Alex Cobb. Berrios has a very high ceiling. But he has not been good on the road going 4-5 with a 5.12 ERA.  Cobb is underrated. He should have more wins that he does. He has a 2.20 ERA in his last three starts, none of which resulted in a win for him. Cobb also is 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 2.53 ERA in two career starts. 

The Brewers regained some needed confidence going 6-2 in their last eight games, including posting a combined five victories against the powerful Dodgers and Nationals. 

 Milwaukee is going with maybe its best pitcher, Chase Anderson. He's been solid in his three starts since returning from the DL. The Brewers have a rested Corey Knebel giving them a strong bullpen edge, too. Anderson is 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA in six career starts versus the Reds.  Reds starter Homer Bailey was once a promising pitcher. Injuries have messed him up. He really shouldn't be in a starting rotation with just five quality outings in 13 starts. Bailey is at his worst pitching at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and during the day. That's the situation for him today. Bailey is 0-5 with a 9.95 ERA at home this season. In day action this season, he's 1-4 with a 13.29 ERA. 

It's no wonder the Rangers have won all five of Martin Perez's last five starts. The southpaw has held four of his past five opponents to two earned runs or less. The Angels have lost the past four times going against a lefty starter.  Perez goes for the Rangers here against Angels lefty Andrew Heaney, who is on the comeback trail after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. This marks Heaney's fourth start of the season. He has been up and down, which often is the case for those pitchers in their first year back from serious elbow surgery.  The Rangers just saw Heaney on Aug. 23. They smacked three homers off him in five innings in a 7-5 victory. Texas is 18-14 versus southpaw starters this season.  Texas is short-handed in the bullpen with setup men Matt Bush and Keone Kela on the DL. But closer Alex Claudio didn't pitch Saturday and the Angels also have an unsettled bullpen without a definitive closer right now.  

I like Jon Gray going for me with the Rockies at home and in circle-the-wagons mode. The Rockies have the more rested key relievers and Gray has started to pitch like a No. 1 pitcher, which the Rockies have always envisioned. Gray has a 2.58 ERA in his last six starts.  Lefty Patrick Corbin always has been pitching very well lately. But the Rockies are 21-15 versus southpaws and own a good history against Corbin, who has a 5.23 career ERA against Colorado in 15 appearances, including 14 starts. Corbin has a 6.97 ERA in two starts against Colorado earlier this season. 

A pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus unpredictable Dinelson Lamet could produce a 1-0 game. It also result in Kershaw only pitching five innings and Lamet getting absoultely shelled.  Kershaw will be pitching in the majors for the first time in 5 1/2 weeks. The Dodgers are going to limit him to around 75 pitches. Kershaw is Kershaw, but you're not getting him for his normal amount of innings. Plus there very well could be a rust factor. As great as he is, Kershaw has allowed a career-worst 18 homers this year.  Historically the Over has been a great play when Kershaw pitches at Petco Park because of a low total like this. The over has cashed seven of the last eight times Kershaw has faced the Padres on the road.  Lamet has intriguing stuff. But he's a highly inconsistent rookie. He also hasn't been that good at Petco with a 3.98 ERA in seven home outings. The Dodgers have a lot of professional hitters who can take advantage of Lamet's youth by not helping him out with bad swings. 

The White Sox are in the midst of a full blown youth movement and have a couple key hitters hurt. But they are a respectable 6-6 in their last 12 games and I don't believe Blake Snell should be this high of a road favorite. So that allows me to get involved on the run line. The Rays have a losing road record on the season. Snell has been pitching better. But he's more effective pitching at Tropicana Field, which is turf. His road ERA is 4.76. The Rays are 5-12 in Snell's last 17 away starts.  Only once during their last 12 road contests have the Rays managed to string together consecutive victories. They are off a win against the Royals in their last game. Reynaldo Lopez is set to make his third start of the year. He had been on DL due to a back strain. He says he's 100 percent now and ready to pitch his best ball. I liked Lopez's potential whe he was with the Nationals last year. The Rays have never seen him. 

There's a very real possibility Gincarlo Stanton adds to his major league-best 51 home run total here. That's because the Marlins are going against rookie Nick Pivetta. The Phillies have decided to keep Pivetta in the rotation letting him take his lumps as the youngster gains big league experience.  That's a plus for those going Over. It's not a fluke the Over is 6-2-1 in Pivetta's last nine starts. Pivetta was more effective when the league hadn't learned about him. But he's a known commodity now with a 9.22 ERA during the second half of the season and a 7.62 road ERA. This will be the third time the Marlins have seen him. Right-handers are crushing the right-handed Pivetta batting .319 against him with a 1.026 OPS. He's surrendered 16 homers in 100 innings.  Dillon Peters is going to make his big league debut. He's making the jump from Double A. Peters is a wild card. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, though, and hasn't ptiched in a week.  It shouldn't be too much to ask of each team to produce at least four runs apiece in this pitching matchup. The hitters shouldn't be hinderd either by the home plate umpire, Dan Iassogna. The Over is 29-20 (59 percent) during the last two years when he's been the home plate umpire.

The Angels are going for a three-game sweep of the A's at home today. I don't see them getting it.  The A's have proven resilient going 10-4 the past 14 times when playing Game 3 of a series. Before their two losses to open this series, the A's had gone 4-1.  Oakland starter Kendall Graveman is hitting his stride after being out more than two months. He has a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts spanning 20 innings. Graveman has a 3.19 career ERA against the Angels in nine starts.  Mike Trout has missed the last two games due to a stiff neck and is questionable. Trout has failed to get a hit in his last 17 at bats.  Angels starter rookie Parker Bridwell has pitched better than anyone expected with a 2.89 ERA in nine starts. Bridwell is due for some regression and hasn't pitched as well at home where his ERA is 3.56. 

After facing southpaw Drew Pomeranz, who has been hot, and Chris Sale, the premier lefty in the American League, the Blue Jays now get righty Rick Porcello. That's a big dropoff. Porcello has yielded a career-worst 31 homers already this season and is coming off a Friday start against the Orioles where he gave up 11 runs on nine hits in fewer than five innings, although it should be noted seven of those runs were unearned. Porcello has a 4.70 career ERA versus the Blue Jays in 18 outings, including 17 starts. The Blue Jays have hit the 13th most homers in the majors.  Boston is a highly-impressive 60-42 against righties. The Red Sox, however, are only 15-15 versus lefty starters. They were under .500 against southpaws until beating Toronto and Brett Anderson, 3-0, last night. The much traveled and injured Anderson, though, pitched well against the Red Sox holding them to one run on six hits with no walks in 5 2/3 innings.  Southpaw J.A. Happ is better than Anderson and he goes against the Red Sox today. Happ went 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA last year. Happ isn't having that kind of season this year, but he's been solid holding eight of his last 12 opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He has a 3.66 career ERA in 13 starts against Boston.  The Red Sox remain without two key players, second baseman Dustin Pedroia and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. 

Two bad starting pitchers and two bad bullpen with an opening total of less than double-digits puts me strongly on the Over here. The A's are going with Chris Smith. He's a 36-year-old career minor leaguer with a 5.56 ERA. Smith is prone to the long ball and doesn't miss many bats. That's a bad combination. Smith has made seven big league starts and has yet to win. In all but one of his past five starts, Smith has allowed four or more runs. Smith probably is going to have to deal with Mike Trout, too. Trout is expected back after missing Monday's game with a stiff neck.   Angels starter Troy Scribner has a 4.00 ERA - and he's lucky to have that considering how many hard hit balls he's given up.  Prior to last night, the Angels had scored at least five runs in seven of their past 10 games while the A's had scored six or more runs in four of their past five games. Look for both team's hitting to return in this batter-friendly matchup.  Neither pitcher will be getting any help from the weather with the forecast calling for slight winds blowing out. 

Getting out of Boston is the tonic for the Red Sox, who were just swept at home by the Orioles. Now the Red Sox head to Toronto. They are 7-3 against the Blue Jays this season, including 5-1 at Rogers Centre.  The Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball. They'll find themselves. The Blue Jays won't. Toronto is eight games below .500 and are 2-7 in its last nine games.  The Blue Jays are 11-19 versus left-handed starters this year and facing hot southpaw Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz has won his last seven decisions. He has a 1.59 ERA during his past five starts. Pomeranz always had talent he was just held back by injuries. Now he's dealing and has a strong history against the Blue Jays going 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA. He's 2-0 versus Toronto this season with a 0.71 ERA.  Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher. But he's not in the form Pomeranz is and has a worse bullpen behind him. Stroman was hit hard in his last outing giving up five runs on eight hits - including three homers - in 5 1/3 innings against the Rays this past Wednesday.  Stroman has a 4.47 career ERA in nine starts against Boston. He's 0-1 versus the Red Sox with a 4.76 ERA in two starts this year. 

The Astros have a lot going for them in this bounce back spot after blowing Saturday's game to the Angels, 7-6.  Jose Altuve may be the best player in the American League and he's back in the lineup. So is catcher Brian McCann, who has nine homers in 73 career at bats against Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco, a career journeyman, opposes Charie Morton, who is having perhaps his finest season. The right-handed Nolasco's ERA is above 5.00. The Astros average just a shade under six runs per game versus righty starters. The Angels have lost seven of the past 10 times Nolasco has pitched at home.  Houston has won 67 percent of its last 61 road contests. Morton is 2-0 lifetime versus the Angels with a 3.24 ERA in three starts.  If Altuve isn't the best player in the American League than Mike Trout is Trout, however, is hitless in his last four games. 

The Giants are not a team to back on the road - except in a case like this with Madison Bumgarner opening as a 'dog against a cold pitcher.  Pride is at stake for Bumgarner, who has a winning record and 2.81 ERA in eight starts since returning from the DL. Bumgarner has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts. Bumgarner also has a lifetime winning mark versus the Diamondbacks with a 2.58 ERA in 28 appearances, including 27 starts.  Bumgarner certainly can be counted on to give San Francisco a quality performance here. The same can't be said for Arizona starter Taijuan Walker. The Diamondbacks have lost seven of the last eight times Walker has pitched. Walker is winless during his past 10 starts and has a 4.76 ERA in three starts against the Giants this year. 

The Astros aren't playing well losing 16 of their last 25. They aren't likely to have AL batting leader Jose Altuve either.  But I like them, especially at this price, to take care of business against the Angels.  Houston is 8-0 the past eight times Collin McHugh has started against the Angels. He gets the call here looking better and better since returning from an elbow injury that had sidelined him for much of the season. McHugh blanked the A's in his last start this past Saturday going six innings.  McHugh has a 2.55 lifetime ERA versus the Angels. That ERA shrinks even more to 2.25 when he's pitched at Angel Stadium.  Mike Trout is the key to the Angels and he's in a 3-for-23 slump.  Parker Bridwell has been a major surprise for the Angels. The Angels are unbeaten in his last eight starts. I don't see that continuing. McHugh is the better pitcher and the Astros are the superior team even without Altuve. 

All signs are in place for these two teams to combine for double-digit scoring.  The Rangers are averaging 7.2 runs during their last 10 games. The Angels are averaging 5.8 runs in their past six games.  Rangers starter Martin Perez has a 5.26 ERA. Perez is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter and not a very good one. His ERA is even higher when pitching at Angel Stadium where he's 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA in four lifetime starts.  The Angels have dealt with numerous pitching injuries so up from the minors comes Troy Scribner to start here. He's replacing JC Ramirez. Scribner had a 4.35 ERA for Salt Lake in Triple A this season.  Both bullpens are vulnerable and carry high fatigue ratings. Rangers closer Alex Claudio worked two innings throwing 32 pitches in last night's extra inning game. The Angels are still searching for their closer.  The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out. Adrian Johnson is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 63 percent of the time during the 48 times he's been behind the plate the past two seasons. 
  

The Diamondbacks are the far superior team and have a strong pitching edge, too, in this matchup. All-Star Robbie Rays returns from a concussion. The Diamondbacks have been extra careful with him. Now he's ready. Ray is one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball. He also has a 0.53 lifetime ERA in 17 innings versus the Mets.  New York, losers of eight of its last 10, are starting Rafael Montero. He's only in the Mets' starting rotation due to a cluster injury problem that has sidelined all of the Mets' projected starters except Jacob deGrom. Montero is 1-7 at home with a 5.89 ERA.  Arizona has a top-10 offense, while the Mets have failed to score more than four runs in eight of their last 10 games having traded many of their front line players in an effort to rebuild. 

Unless Jacob deGrom is pitching, the Mets are clear fade material. The Mets are 7-19 in their last 26 games putting them at a season-worst 16 games below .500. New York has dropped eight of its past nine games. The Mets also can't beat Arizona having lost 10 of their last 11 to the Diamondbacks.  The Mets only have a few of their projected starters. They just lost All-Star outfielder Michael Conforto to a thumb injury. This leaves the Mets with an extremely weak lineup. The Diamondbacks have a top-10 offense, are in a playoff race and have the superior pitching matchup with Zack Godley opposing rookie Chris Flexen.  Godley has pitched much better than his 5-6 record. He holds a 3.13 ERA and averages more than nine strikeouts per nine innings. Godley has a 1.80 career ERA in 15 innings against the Mets.  Flexen has been pushed to the big league level due to the many Mets pitching injuries, which include all of their starters except deGrom. Flexen, who went directly to the majors from Class AA skipping Triple A, has a 6.55 ERA and control problems having given up four or more walks in three of his last five starts.He has issued more bases on balls than he has strikeouts. 

Tommy Milone is getting a start here for the Mets and the weather forecast is for wind to be blowing out at 16 mph. The Diamondbacks have a top 10 offense. Enough said.  Just in case you want more, here are the gory details about Milone: He's only pitching because the Mets lost another starting pitcher with Steven Matz going on the DL. Milone hasn't pitched in the big leagues since May because he's terrible and he also was out with a knee sprain. He had made three starts this season for the Mets compiling a 10.50 ERA. He has a 7.59 lifetime ERA against the Diamondbacks in two starts.  Patrick Corbin is pitching well for Arizona. However, he has a 6.04 lifetime ERA versus the Mets in six appearances, including five starts. The Over has won 69 percent of the time during Corbin's last 54 road starts. 

Do you recall journeyman Tommy Milone? Here's a refresher. He began the year with the Brewers before being cut. The Mets picked him up and actually gave him three early-season starts. Milone went 0-2 with a 10.50 ERA during those outings before suffering a knee injury.  Now Milone has resurfaced due to yet another Mets starting pitcher injury with Steven Matz done for the year. The Mets are now down five starting pitchers. Hence, Milone being back in the bigs - at least for now. Milone has made two career starts against the Diamondbacks. Not surprisingly they didn't go well. He's 0-1 lifetime against them with a 7.59 ERA.  The Mets are at low ebb. They have waved the white flag dealing a number of their veterans. New York has dropped seven of its last eight games and have lost 25 of the past 38 times when facing an above .500 foe. The Mets also have lost nine of their last 10 to the Diamondbacks.  Arizona starter Patrick Corbin is pitching his best ball. He held the Cubs and Astros - two far better offensive teams than the Mets - scoreless during his last two starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Corbin has a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those last two games.  Since All-Star break, Corbin has gone 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts. 

This is big game for the Rangers, who trail the Twins and Angels by 2 1/2 games for the last wild card spot. Cole Hamels is a big-game pitcher and has a strong history versus the Angels. He also has been very good since July.  Hamels is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA from July on. He is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in seven lfetime games against the Angels, including posting a 0.61 ERA in two starts this season.  Tyler Skaggs has pitched decently since coming off the DL following being out for three months with a strained obligue. Skaggs doesn't have Hamels' big game experience, though, and has a 5.46 career mark against the Rangers in six starts, including two this season.  The Rangers will be without slugger Joey Gallo and Carlos Gomez. These are two streaky players, though, who don't hit for a high average. The Rangers are averaging 7.4 runs during their last 10 games.  Texas has less of a distance to travel for this game than the Angels, who are returning home from the East Coast. The Angels haven't been home since Aug. 9. So the spot isn't good for them mentally returning to Anaheim for the first time in such a long while. 

Even without Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy, if he's resting another game, Washington still is vastly superior to San Diego.  The Nationals have won 13 of their last 19 road games and own a huge pitching matchup here with Gio Gonzalez facing rookie Dinelson Lamet.  Gonzalez is pitching his best ball with a 3-0 mark and 0.43 ERA in his last three starts. The lefty has gone at least six innings during 13 of his past 14 starts.  San Diego is 13-19 versus lefty starters and has lost 20 more games than the Nationals.  Lamet has intiguing stuff. But he's very raw and inconsistent. His ERA at Petco Park is 3.75, which isn't impressive considering Petco is the premier pitching park in the majors. 

Zack Greinke remans an elite pitcher. Jose Berrios has a high ceiling, but has been struggling after a bright beginning following being called up from the minors. Berrios has a 7.04 ERA in his last three starts. Greinke is 3-0 with a 0.65 ERA in four interleague starts this year. Greinke knows the AL well. Berriors does not know the NL and the Diamondbacks have a very strong hittling lineup made stronger if J.D. Martinez is able to play after sitting out yesterday due to illness.  Arizona is 11-4 in its last 15 interleague games. 

I'm going to fade Trevor Bauer as a road favorite. Bauer doesn't have a good road mark this season - 4-5 with a 6.32 ERA - and is in the unusual spot of pitching for the third time in less than a week having pitched in relief just two days ago.  The Indians are playing well. The Royals, though, had won four of their last five before getting trounced by the Indians last night. That was going against Corey Kluber, though.  Jason Vargas had a great June and a bad July. He was back on his game during his last start this past Sunday holding the White Sox to three runs on six hits in six innings. Vargas isn't as good as he was early in the year. But he's not as bad as he looked last month.  Vargas has pitched his best this season versus Cleveland going 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in three starts. He is pitching on five days rest. Kansas City is 10-2 the past 12 times Vargas has gone on five days rest. 

Injuries not talent has been what has held Drew Pomeranz back. Pomeranz has been healthy the past two months and it has shown in his stats. He's given up three earned runs or less in 10 of his past 11 starts. It's not a fluke either. The talent is there backed by strong peripherals. Pomeranz has averaged more than one strikeout per inning.  Boston is 7-2 in Pomeranz's last nine starts. Jordan Montgomery can't match that. New York is 1-6 the past seven times Montgomery has faced an above .500 team.  The Yankees beat up on the battered Mets, but are stepping way up in class here. Boston has won eight of its last nine home games. The Red Sox also have won the last four times Pomeranz faced the Yankees. 

It wouldn't shock me to see the Dodgers lose this game. The spot is ripe for the Tigers to pull an upset here. But I'm not crazy enough to stand in the Dodgers' way. They are a mind-boggling 50-9 in their last 59 games. That's why I'm taking the Tigers plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. The Dodgers were idle Thursday. That could cool them off. This also is their first game away from the West Coast in 12 days. It's a three-hour time difference for them.  The pitching matchup is lefty Rich Hill versus Jordan Zimmerman.  Hill is vulnerable at big chalk because of his tendency to develop blisters and leave games early. The Tigers have a winning home mark and also a winning record against southpaws.  Detroit was idle Thursday, too. The Tigers have won 18 of the past 26 times following an off day. The Tigers also have other impressive trends that fit this situation: They have won 69 percent of their last 131 interleague home games. They are 29-10 the last 39 times they've gone against a lefty starter at Comerica Park.  Zimmerman is a pitcher I have always liked. Injuries and a switch to the American League have derailed him. But he's still effective when he's healthy, which he is now. He's turned in three quality outings during his last four starts.  Zimmerman has experience handling the Dodgers, too, having made eight starts against them when he was with the Nationals. Zimmerman has a 2.11 ERA during his past four starts versus the Dodgers. 

This series has only gone under once during the past nine games played in Arlington. Look for the Over trend to continue today with a pitching matchup of Reynaldo Lopez versus Tyson Ross.  I can easily envision each team scoring at least five runs apiece. The Rangers have scored six or more runs in five of their last six games. They are averaging more than nine runs during their last three games.  Lopez will be making his second start of the year. He had a 4.91 ERA pitching for Washington last season making 11 appearances, including six starts. Lopez has a high ceiling, but isn't major league caliber yet and not used to facing AL teams and a DH. Pitching at Arlington this time of season - when the weather is hot and muggy - is very rough, too. It really favors the hitters.  Ross is working his way back into shape following assorted injuries. His control and stamina remain lacking. He's worked fewer than six innings in all but one of his eight starts and he yielded five walks during his last start this past Saturday in fewer than six innings. 

The Braves nipped the Rockies, 4-3, Tuesday night. Before that game, Atlanta had lost 11 in a row at Coors Field.

 Look for the Braves to begin a new losing streak at Coors starting with today's game.  The Braves have been looking more like the rebuilding team that they are. They're playing young players and still missing injured Matt Kemp. This is reflected in 16 losses in the Braves' past 22 games.  The Rockies have their best pitcher, Jon Gray, going and closer Greg Holland is rested. Gray has shown he can pitch well at Coors Field going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four home starts this season. He was 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts versus the Braves last season. Mike Foltynewicz is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter who is showing signs of hitting the wall. He has an 8.31 ERA during his last three starts of which only one lasted more than four innings. Foltynewicz has a 4.88 road ERA.  Foltynewicz has to deal with a Rockies lineup that is far more dangerous than Atlanta's offense. Only two teams rank higher than Colorado in runs and batting average. 

This is a lost season for the Giants. They've been particularly bad on the road going 20-41. So normally they are a team to avoid especially in away circumstances such as this. But the team still has some prideful veterans and they will play hard here for Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner doesn't have the wins to show for it, but he's pitching like the four-time All-Star that he is. Since coming off the DL during the middle of last month, Bumgarner has posted a 2.52 ERA. He has a 1.29 ERA during his past three starts.  Dan Straily posted a 3.31 ERA in the first half of the season. Straily has hit a wall, though, going 0-4 with a 5.17 ERA during the second half of the year. The Marlins have lost each of the last six times Straily has pitched. 

The Yankees aren't that good where they can lay a price like this against Jacob deGrom.  Both teams take a lot of pride in this Subway Series and the Mets have their best pitcher going here. deGrom can take his place among any to be nominated as the hottest pitcher in baseball. He is 9-2 with a 1.82 ERA and 85 strikeouts during his last 79 1/3 innings.  The Yankees beat the Mets, 4-2, last night. The Yankees have lost five of the past six times following a win. They are averaging just 3.2 runs in their last five games.  I'm not sold that Sonny Gray is an elite pitcher. I wouldn't put him in deGrom's class. Gray has to prove he can pitch effectively away from spacious Oakland Coliseum. His road ERA this season is 3.75. This is a home game for him, but he hasn't pitched at Yankee Stadium all year. Gray is going to have to deal with streaky Yoenis Cespedes, who is hot with four homers in his last six games, including three in the last three games.

I see the Astros breaking out of their slump here. Houston is 7-1 in Brad Peacock's last eight starts. That's not a fluke stat. Peacock has tremendous stuff.  The Diamondbacks are without their most underrated player, David Perralta. He's on paternity leave. There's a monster drop from Peralta to Gregor Blanco.  The Astros still are the No. 1 offensive team in baseball. They should be able to rough up Anthony Banda, making only his fourth big league start.  Banda has a 4.60 ERA and opposing teams now have three previous starts to gather information from. Banda would not be in the rotation if it weren't for Robbie Ray being on the DL. 

Only once in their last nine games have the Royals gone under the total. Look for another Over in today's Royals game as Kansas City plays Oakland. The Royals have scored five or more runs in four of their last five games. The A's are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 19 runs in their last three games.  The starting pitching matchup is Royals rookie Jake Junis, who carries a 4.70 ERA, facing Jharel Cotton. Junis has been shuttling back and forth from the majors to the minors. He's too inconsisent now for the Royals to trust. Cotton has been a major disappointment with a 5.72 ERA. Cotton has been horrible since returning from the DL. He has an 8.59 ERA in his last three starts.  The Royals' bullpen is worn down while the A's bullpen is depleted and totally unreliable following trades.  Oakland Coliseum is a pitcher's park. But this is negated by the weather forecast that calls for 16 mph winds blowing out to right.  

The Angels are going for a four-game road sweep of the Mariners. The oddsmaker doesn't see the Angels getting it making Seattle favored. I don't either. I like the Mariners in this circle-the-wagons game for them.  Angels starter Parker Bridwell has been a revelation. The Angels are 10-1 in his 11 starts. Bridwell isn't this good. The Mariners know that first hand. They dealt the Angels their lone loss when Bridwell started winning, 10-0, in Anaheim on June 30. The Mariners scored five earned runs off him on 11 hits in six innings.  The Angels' bullpen has outpitched the Mariners' relievers in this series. I don't see that continuing either. The Angels are unsettled at closer with Bud Norris being demoted.  Ariel Miranda gets the start for Seattle. He was the pitcher who beat Bridwell in that June 30 games. Miranda threw seven shutout innings allowing only two hits and two walks. He also defeated the Angels, 11-3, back in May. Miranda's career mark versus the Angels is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA. I have a lot of confidence in him against this opponent. 

Jon Lester has a 4.25 road ERA and is vulnerable to strong base stealing teams such as the Diamondbacks. Nobody knows this better than Arizona manager Tony Lovullo, who was a bench coach and running game coordinator for the Red Sox and worked closely with Lester when the two were in Boston together.  The Diamondbacks rank fifth in the majors with 77 stolen bases. The southpaw Lester gave up the most stolen bases in 2015 with a staggering 44 and is tied for fourth in allowing the most steals this season. Lester has a 4.94 lifetime ERA in five starts against Arizona.  Making matters worse for Lester and the Cubs is their catcher, Wilson Contreras, is out with a right hamstring strain. Not only was Contreras having a big year with the bat - 21 homers and 70 RBIs - but he had thrown out 20 base stealers. The Cubs' catching options now are Alex Avila, who caught yesterday, and rookie Victor Caratini. Avila has played only five games with the Cubs. Neither has experience with Lester.  Patrick Corbin will start for Arizona. Corbin didn't allow more than two earned runs during four consecutive starts from July 9-26. He's been hurt by shoddy defense in his last two starts with four unearned runs. Corbin has pitched much better at Chase Field with a 6-3 mark and 3.14 ERA this season.  The roof is going to be closed for this game, which hurts the power for both teams. It's a break, though, for the Diamondbacks because they have by far the better running game. The Cubs rank 25th in steals.  The Diamondbacks have been highly successful against lefty starters at home winning 12 of the past 15 times. 

The Rockies are a better team than the Marlins, who are in rebuild mode. The price is low enough to get involved with Colorado especially with a pitching matchup of Jon Gray versus Jose Urena.  Gray is the Rockies' best pitcher - and now he is pitching like it with a 2.84 ERA and an 18-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Colorado is 7-3 in Gray's last 10 starts.  Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna are the Marlins' best players and Ozuna is in a slump with just four hits during his past 27 at bats.  The Marlins are 5-14 during Urena's last 19 home starts. Urena also has been pitching well lately, but he's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in Gray's class.  The spot sets up well, too, for Colorado. The Rockies were idle Thursday while the Marlins were playing for the 20th time in 21 days. The Rockies are 17-6 the past 23 times they've played following an off day. 

The Mets put up 10 runs on the Phillies Thursday. Prior to that, however, New York was averaging just 2.4 runs in its last 13 games. The Mets' power is greatly reduced after they dealt away Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda.  Phillies starter Nick Pivetta pitched the best game of his young career when he faced the Mets last month holding them to one hit in seven innings. Pivetta is a high strikeout pitcher, who is prone to the long ball. But Pivetta has pitched much better at home - holding foes to a .223 batting average at Citizens Band Park - and much of the Mets' power is gone now. The Phillies' bullpen has been much better lately.  Mets starter Seth Lugo is a bit underrated due to all the other great young arms on the Mets. Lugo can take care of business against a Phillies offense that ranks 29th in runs and 28th in homers.  Roberto Ortiz is slated to be making his eighth career appearance as a major league home plate umpire. The under has cashed in six of his previous seven times as the home plate ump. 

The Indians are averaging a meager two runs per game during their last four games. The Rays have scored just four runs during their last five games.  So why try to make an Over work here? Law of averages for one. Cleveland ranks eighth in the majors in runs and batting average. The Rays have smacked the ninth most homers in the majors.  The other major factor is Blake Snell is going to pitch. The Rays realize Snell shouldn't be in the majors. That's why they sent him down to Triple-A Durham less than a week ago. But an injury to Alex Cobb has put Snell back for another big league start.  Snell has a 5.02 ERA at Tropicana Field. He has yielded a home run in each of his last four starts. Tampa Bay has a bad bullpen and Snell doesn't go deep into games. The over has cashed in eight of his last 11 home starts.  Jay Bruce can't wait to join the Indians with a chance to face Snell.  Indians starter Danny Salazar has been stellar in three starts since coming off the DL. Salazar isn't this good. He's due to take a step back. 

The Brewers were huge overachievers during the first half of the season. They are tumbling back to Earth now, losers of 15 of their last 22. The Twins, meanwhile, are hanging in just 1 1/2 games out of a wild card spot. They have won three in a row and have back All-Star power hitter Miguel Sano.  So why then are the Brewers such huge favorites here? Two words - Bartolo Colon.  The 44-year-old Colon is more craft than substance. He has a 5.18 ERA in four starts with Minnesota. That's a lot better, though, than the 8.14 ERA he recorded in 13 starts with the Braves before coming to the Twins.  Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff is at the opposite spectrum. He's just beginning his career. This will be his second big league start. He blanked Tampa Bay in 6 1/3 innings six days ago.  I like Woodruff's potential. But he's going to go through growing pains. He was 6-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 15 Triple A starts before coming up. The combination of Woodruff's wonderful debut and Colon's presence has created a line that is too high. So I'll make a value play and go with the 'dog at a nice mid-sized price.

Taking the Over with the Astros often is a solid play. It has won 71 percent of the time during Houston's past 32 games. I see it winning again today. The Astros have the No. 1 offense in baseball. They certainly should put up a lot of runs against Miguel Gonzalez, one of the worst pitchers in the league. Gonzalez just gave up seven runs in less than two innings during his past start six days ago.  There's a good chance the Astros get back All-Star George Springer today, too. He's been out since July 25 due to a quad injury.  Collin McHugh has looked outstanding in two starts back from an elbow injury that had kept him out the entire season. Returning from an elbow injury is tricky, though. McHugh is coming off a season-high 100 pitches. I wouldn't be surprised if some regression occurs for him during this start. The White Sox changed the name of their field to Guranteed Rate Field. But it still plays well to the hitters during the summer when the humidity really kicks in. The weather forecast calls for winds to be blowing out to left at around eight mph. 

Better starting pitcher. Better spot. A key injury. Those are the main factors why I like St. Louis to beat Kansas City today. The Royals will be without catcher Salvador Perez, who is on the DL after suffering a right intercostal strain this past Friday.  The Royals had to play a doubleheader Sunday. Their bullpen is fatigued.  The Cardinals have the stronger pitching matchup here with Carlos Martinez facing Ian Kennedy.  Martinez has pitched better than his 7-9 record shows. He's a "B" pitcher in my ratings. Kennedy doesn't rate that high especially at Kauffman Stadium where he carries a 13-game home winless streak. That includes an 0-4 mark this year with a 4.98 ERA.  Kennedy doesn't have a good track record versus the Cardinals either going 3-5 with a 7.20 ERA in eight previous starts.
   

I find value at this high of a price in fading Trevor Williams, a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter.  Detroit is 6-3 in its last nine games. Pittsburgh is 5-9 in its past 14 games. The Pirates have lost in seven of Williams' last nine starts.  I've always liked Zimmermann, who can be extremely effective when healthy. Zimmermann is healthy again and pitching well with three quality starts in his last four outings. He held the Yankees scoreless in seven innings during his past start last Wednesday. Zimmeran gave up six hits, no walks and struck out six. "Other than the one start ... I've been pretty good," Zimmermann was quoted as saying about his past appearances. "I feel strong, and the ball is coming out of my hand much better than it did in the first half of the season." 

I'm certainly not going to stand in the way of a freight train known as the Los Angeles Dodgers, winners of 43 of their last 50 games. I do think the Mets, though, are going to be fired-up and sharp for this nationally televised game. They have been embarrassed by the Dodgers all season going 0-6 against them.  So I don't care to lay a huge price with LA. I do believe strongly, however, that this will be a tight, lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker perceives.  Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is the healthiest he has been in two years and it's showing. He has a 2.38 ERA in his last four starts and is coming off seven scoreless innings against the Giants last Sunday. He is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Mets.  The Dodgers have the second-best bullpen in the majors with a 2.95 ERA. Closer Kenley Jansen is rested.  The Mets are averaging 2.3 runs in their last three games. New York has scored four or less runs in seven of their last 10 home games. Citi Field is more pitcher than hitter park. Often teams rest a key hitter or two on Sunday. Yoenis Cespedes is the Mets' top power hitter and he hasn't homered in 14 straight games at Citi Field.  A key to having this game stay under is Mets starter Steven Matz and New York's defense, which has improved with slick fielding rookie Amed Rosario the everyday shortstop now. Matz is one of the more promising lefties in baseball. He often gets overshadowed because of the Mets' massive talent of young starting pitchers. Matz is 2-0 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 2.50 ERA in three starts.  Matz held the Rockies to three runs in five innings during his last start, which was this past Tuesday. That game was at Coors Field. This one is at a much better pitching venue. 

These teams easily exceeded nine runs on Friday with the Angels winning, 8-6. I see more of the same today. Oakland is averaging 5.2 runs in its last seven games. The Angels are averaging 7.2 runs during their last seven games. The bullpens are bad and the starting pitching matchup is Paul Blackburn versus Tyler Skaggs.  Blackburn gave up five runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings against the Giants during his last outing this past Monday. The Giants have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball and are last in homers. Now Blackburn is going to have to deal with a much better offensive team, a DH and a red-hot Mike Trout, who is 13-for-30 riding a seven-game hitting streak.  Not much is being expected from Skaggs, who last started on April 29. He's been out with an oblique strain. He's 0-2 lifetime versus the A's with a 6.75 ERA in three starts.  These two teams have gone Over 73 percent of the time during their past 26 games in Los Angeles. 

Lance Lynn is very underrated. He ranks in the top six in the National League in both ERA and batting average against holding opponents to a .210 average. Lynn has a good history versus the Reds, too, with a 9-4 record and 3.15 ERA in 19 appearances, including 16 starts. Lynn had a 1.47 ERA in six July starts.  He is more trustworthy than Reds rookie starter Luis Castillo. I like the potential of Castillo. But he's coming up on his career high in innings and has yet to win at home where he's 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA.  Cincinnati has dropped nine of its last 12 home games.  It's a big plus if the Cardinals get back catcher Yadier Molina as expected. He pinch-hit Friday after getting banged-up on Thursday. 

Put two hot offenses against two vulnerable starting pitchers and weak bullpens and reaching double-digits shouldn't be a problem.  The A's are averaging 5.8 runs in their last five games. The Angels have been even better averaging 7.4 runs during their last five games.  I had high hopes at the start of the season for A's starter Jharel Cotton. Those hopes certainly have been misplaced. Cotton has been injured and ineffective this year. He has a 5.49 ERA and didn't look good in his first start off the DL. He gave up five run on five hits - including two homers - and five walks in only 3 2/3 innings against the Twins this past Sunday.  Cotton is 0-2 versus the Angels this season giving up 12 runs in 9 1/3 innings.  Scribner has made just two big league appearances, both in relief. He had a 4.16 ERA in Triple A this season. Not much is expected from him here. The offenses will be helped, too, by a slight breeze blowing out. 

This is a lost season for the Giants. But I do believe the Giants will be fired up here to earn a split of their four-game series against cross-town rival Oakland.  I do not like to lay a price with San Francisco, but my urge to fade to Kendall Graveman and the A's on the road outweighs that concern.  Oakland has the second-worst road mark in the majors at 17-35. Graveman hasn't pitched in the majors since May 19 because of a strained shoulder. His minor league rehab numbers weren't encouraging at 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and opponents batting .383 against him.  The Giants have seen Graveman twice, the last time coming on June 28 of last season. Graveman has an 11.37 ERA versus San Francisco.  The A's have never faced Ty Blach, who pitched very well in his last outing giving up two runs in seven innings against the Dodgers on the road this past Saturday. 

Jerad Eickhoff is way below the radar. He started the season by losing his first seven decisions. Then he went on the DL with a back injury. But in his last five starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. 

 This is the Phillies' third game on the West Coast so they should be adjusted to the time change by now. The Phillies had won five in a row before venturing on their current trip.  Philadelphia also is facing Parker Bridwell, who is due for serious regression. Bridwell is 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts. I don't think he's nearly as good as those numbers. 

 I'm not a fan of either starting pitcher, Sal Romano or Chad Kuhl.  Romano will be making his fifth big league start. He's given up 13 walks in those starts spanning 18 1/3 innings. He's still experimenting with his pitches. The Reds are going to be patient with him. So he's living and learning.  Kuhl has a 4.84 ERA and also has been dealing with control issues. He walked five batters in 5 1/3 innings during his last start against the weak-hitting Padres in San Diego this past Friday.  The Reds rank 12th in the majors in homers. They've already smacked five homers in the first two games of this series. Both teams are thin and weak in middle relief. 
   

The Nationals rank second only to the Astros in the major offensive categories. The Marlins are averaging 7.8 runs during their last six games if you discount a 1-0 loss to southpaw Gio Gonzalez two days ago.  I have to believe these teams can combine for double-digit runs in a pitching matchup of A.J. Cole versus Vance Worley.  Cole hasn't started in the big leagues since May. He had a 5.66 ERA in the minors at Triple-A Syracuse. The Marlins saw Cole last September and scored six runs on 10 hits off him in seven innings.  Like a bad penny that gets passed around, journeyman Worley has resurfaced in the majors. He holds a 6.42 ERA and is backed by a shaky Marlins bullpen that has been gutted by injuries and a trade of closer A.J. Ramos. The Nationals have fortified their bullpen, but it carries a high fatigue rating as Washington relievers went seven innings yesterday.  

Vance Worley has a reserved spot on my list of "F" starting pitchers. Not only do I want to fade Worley, but I want to back the Nationals after they blew a 6-0 lead to the Marlins Tuesday. I can do it at a cheap lay price, too. It just takes a little faith in Nationals pitcher A.J. Cole and a strong belief Washington is going to hammer Worley and a battered Marlins bullpen that has lost their top relievers through trade and injuries.  The Nationals are the best offensive team in the National League. They are 7-2 the past nine times against a righty starter.  Cole looked sharp in his lone big league start this year holding the Phillies to one run on six hits in six innings back on May 6. The Nationals haven't needed him since with their pitching depth. 

The price has come down a little, which is enough for me to get involved backing the Twins here in this day game.  Minnesota has a better road mark than the Padres' home record. Minnesota is the better team and has the better starting pitcher going in a matchup of Ervin Santana versus Luis Perdomo.  Santana is having an All-Star season. He's been at his best on the road and in day games - both of which occur here. Santana is 7-2 with a 2.59 away from home this season and is 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA during day action. He also is 2-0 lifetime with a 1.69 ERA in four starts against San Diego.    Opposing hitters are batting just .217 against Santana. The long ball has hurt Santana, but he'll be helped here pitching at Petco Park, the premier pitcher's park.  Perdomo is a young up-and-down pitcher. He's not nearly in Santana's class yet. Perdomo has pitched slightly worse at Petco Park with a 4.76 home ERA this year.  The Twins get a boost to their speed game and outfield defense with the return of centerfielder Byron Buxton. 

Erasmo Ramirez is a bottom of the barrel starter/reliever type and Nick Martinez is even worse drawing an "F" rating from me.  Ramirez has a 4.80 ERA. He hasn't pitched more than three innings since June 21. He'll be on a 60-to-80 pitch count. So the Rangers offense, which ranks No. 2 in homers and seventh in runs, will get to feast on Ramirez and Seattle's middle relief. Martinez is back up in the majors because Yu Darvish was traded to the Dodgers Monday. He hasn't started in the big leagues since June 25. His ERA is 4.56. Seattle ranks in the top 12 in batting average and runs despite playing in a pitcher's park. Now they're in a hitter's park that plays better to the hitters during the hot summer.  The over has cashed nine of the last 12 times the teams have played each other in Arlington. The forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing in. This is more than offset with Jeff Nelson slated to be behind the plate. The over has cashed 57 percent of the time Nelson has been the home plate umpire during the last two years. 

Have to look to fade the Brewers in a chalk role here as Milwaukee has fallen back to Earth dropping 11 of its last 14 and nine of its last 11. The Brewers are an amazing 0-for-31 with runners in scoring position.  While the Brewers are slipping, the Cardinals are coming on winning five of their last seven to move within 4 1/2 games of the Cubs. Their outfield should get a boost with the expected return today of Stephen Piscotty off the DL.  Carlos Martinez is a stud pitcher who is 5-2 with a 1.75 ERA in 21 career appearances versus the Brewers. St. Louis is 21-9 in his last 30 starts when he pitches on five day's rest. St. Louis also is 5-1 the past six times Martinez has faced Milwaukee.  Jimmy Nelson has had a nice comeback season. But he's 0-8 with a 7.01 ERA lifetime mark against the Cardinals in 11 games. The Brewers are 3-7 in Nelson's last 10 starts against St. Louis. Nelson is 0-1 in two starts against the Cardinals with a 5.73 ERA this year. 

I rate Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton as a pair of "C" range pitchers making this total too low especially considering how bad the Astros bullpen has been lately. Tampa Bay has a weak bullpen, too. Cobb has been pitching well, but faces the best offense in baseball here. I expect the Astros to score a lot returning to hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park following an embarrassing 13-1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday.  The Astros saw Cobb back in April getting to him for four runs on nine hits in six innings during a 6-3 win. The Over is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times Cobb has made a road start versus an above .500 opponent.  Morton has been pitching well, too, but he has a 5.25 career ERA versus the Rays in two starts. He gave up five runs in five innings in his previous start to Tampa Bay in April.  The Rays are anticipating getting back Logan Morrison today. He leads the team in homers and RBI's.  The two teams have gone over in each of their past six meetings. 

We have three major things going for us in trying to get these two teams to reach double-digits in runs today.  No. 1: Bartolo Colon. He's old, overweight and washed-up. The 44-year-old has given up  at least seven hits in 13 of his 15 starts. His ERA is a fat 8.00. The Braves finally gave up on him. I was surprised the Twins picked him up. Colon has made two starts for Minnesota giving up a combined seven runs and 16 hits in nine innings. Said Twins manager Paul Molitor about Colon. "...We're just hoping that each out there for us he's a little bit better." Not exactly high praise, or showing a lot of confidence.  No. 2: The bullpens. They are both brutal. The Twins only have one good reliever, Brandon Kintzler, and he couldn't pitch Saturday because of a heavy workload. He's a trade candidate, too, raising the possibility that he might be held out a second straight game. The A's' bullpen was gutted when they dealt Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle to Washington. Oakland doesn't have reliable setup men now, nor a closer.  No. 3: Jharel Cotton. He's going to get the start instead of Sonny Gray. Cotton is a rookie with some potential so he's a bit of a wildcard. This is his first start since July 3 when he went on the DL for a blister on his right thumb. Cotton has been disappointing with a 5.17 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The Twins got a whiff of him back in May scoring three runs, including hitting two homers, in six innings.  The Twins have scored at least five runs in four of their last seven games.  There will be a slight wind blowing out to right. Home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi is neutral as far as over/unders. 

Look for the Pirates to beat the Padres here in a pitching matchup of Ivan Nova versus rookie Dinelson Lamet.  Nova is a solid pro. This is an important game for the Pirates, who had been playing well until getting nipped by the Padres last night. Nova's last start came at Coors Field and he struggled just like many pitchers when throwing at the league's best offensive stadium.  Nova should fare much better against a much weaker offense and at the premier's pitcher's park in the league, Petco Park. I consider Nova to be a "B" level pitcher. Pittsburgh is 5-0 the past five times Nova has thrown on five days rest.  Lamet has intriguing potential, but he's not ready for the majors. Opponents have caught on to him. Lamet's ERA in his last three starts is 7.36.  The Padres are vulnerable in the bullpen, too, with new closer Brad Hand having pitched and gotten saves during the past three days. So he might be unavailable. Even if he's called on to pitch again, he'll carry a high fatigue rating. Hand is by far the Padres' best relief pitcher. He's also rumored to be on the trading block. The Padres' bullpen is thinned out with former closer Bradon Maurer traded to Kansas City. 

It's good value to take a price on the Rays in a pitching matchup of youngsters Blake Snell versus Caleb Smith.  Snell has pitched better than his 0-6 record shows. Snell held Baltimore to one run in seven innings during his last start this past Monday. He has a 2.38 career ERA in five games against the Yankees.  The lefthanded Smith has a 8.10 ERA. This will be his second big league start. He allowed four runs on five hits and one walk in 3 2/3 innings during his debut against the Mariners at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field this past Sunday.  The Rays have won five of the last seven times they've gone against a southpaw starter. 

Danny Salazar came out extremely sharpt in his first game back fron the DL. That was this past Saturday against the Blue Jays. Salazar allowed only one hit in seven scoreless innings. Salazar goes against a White Sox squad that has scored four or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games.  White Sox starter Derek Holland is due to pitch better. He has a strong history against the Indians with a 7-1 mark and 2.27 ERA in 11 starts spanning 67 innings. Both teams rank among the bottom 11 in homers and their hitters will be dealing with a wind blowing in at 16 mph.  

Under the total often is the way to go in these early start time get away day games where everyday players frequently get rested. I believe that will be the case in this matchup. Marcus Stroman has become Toronto's ace and Oakland's Sean Manaea is underrated. Manaea hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in five of his last six starts. His day time ERA is 3.64. Toronto is a very overrated offensive club ranking 27th in runs and batting average.   Stroman has been dominant his past three starts with a 0.84 ERA. He has allowed only four earned runs during his past five starts giving up 26 hits in 34 innings. I don't think it's a stretch to say he's on the verge of stardom.  Stroman also draws a weak-hitting opponent. Oakland is 25th in runs and 30th in batting. The A's are averaging only two runs per game during their last four games.  Note the conditions, too. The roof is going to be closed at Rogers Centre for this game, which is a plus for the under. The slated home plate umpire is Will Little. The under has cashed 56 percent of the time the past two years when he's been the home plate ump.

The Dodgers are just 5-4 in their last nine games if asked to lay 1 1/2 runs - and that's not with righthander Brock Stewart pitching.  Stewart is making his first start of the year with Clayton Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy sidelined. Stewart made five starts last year and had a 6.38 ERA. He made four minor league starts this year and didn't complete four innings in any of them. This is likely to be Stewart and a bunch of middle relievers for the Dodgers. I feel fortified to step in against the Dodgers in this situation - especially backed by 1 1/2 runs.  The Twins have the fifth-best road record in the league at 26-19. They are 21-8 in their last 29 road games versus a righty starter.  MInnesota is going with two-time All-Star Ervin Santana, who is having one of his best seasons going 11-7 with a 3.26 ERA. Santana isn't pitching as well as he did during the first two months of the season, but he's a tough veteran who knows how to pitch and should be pumped for this matchup.  The Twins have won seven of Santana's last nine starts and should have slugging third baseman Miguel Sano back in their lineup.   

The Rangers suffered a frustrating loss to the Marlins last night in their first game back in Arlington returning from a 10-game road swing that concluded this past Sunday.  I see the Rangers more relaxed and focused now in their second home game following that extended trip. Texas is four games above .500 at home while the Marlins are three games below .500 on the road.  I'm willing to lay this price backing Cole Hamels against Dan Straily. I respect Straily, but I really like Hamels here. Hamels had his streak of 24 scoreless innings snapped against the Orioles in his last start when he was hammered for seven runs in 5 1/3 innings.  The Orioles have been hot, though, and Hamels still has a 2.96 ERA for the month. The Rangers are 21-5 in Hamels' last 26 home games. The Rangers have been absolutely dominant when Hamels pitches at home against sub .500 opponents winning 13 of the past 14 times. Look for that trend to hold up here. 

This may be the only time I lay a road price with the A's all season, but I want Sonny Gray in a pitching matchup against Cesar Valdez.  Gray is pitching great - 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in his last five starts - and is sure to be pumped in what very well could be his final start in an Oakland uniform.  Valdez is more relief pitcher than starter. He's a journeyman who the A's designated for assignment earlier this season. So Oakland hitters know him. The right-hander has made just three big league starts. Valdez has a 6.92 ERA in those starts. He's filling in here for injured Aaron Sanchez.  The A's have won nine of the last 12 times they've faced a righty starter. They also are 4-0 the past four times Gray has gone against Toronto.  The Blue Jays are going to be sellers, too, at the trade deadline just like the A's. Even with Oakland's terrible road record, I still think the A's are a good price here with Gray pitching.