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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
06-06-18	Marlins v. Cardinals -1.5	Top	11-3	Loss	-100	13 h 20 m	Show
Not only do the Marlins have the worst record in the National League, but their losses usually aren't close either. They have lost by more than one run in nine of their last 11 losses. St. Louis is poised to make a move with Yadier Molina back from the DL and Marcell Ozuna heating up. The Cardinals fell as big favorites to the Marlins on Tuesday in the first game of this series. I don't see a repeat of that happening. Neither does the oddsmaker with this huge of a price. This game shapes up as a kill spot for the Cardinals so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 runs and get a plus price rather than have to risk heavy juice. Miami had lost six in a row until last night. They last time the Marlins won back-to-back games was May 22-23 versus the Mets. The Marlins are starting lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who is coming off a serious injury and trying to round into form. He has a 6.10 ERA and doesn't go deep into games. The Marlins have a very weak bullpen. I like Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty, who is displaying a lot of promise with a 2.62 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings. The Cardinals have won 62 percent of their games this season against lefty starters.
06-06-18	Orioles +105 v. Mets		1-0	Win	105	2 h 33 m	Show
The Mets have scored only seven runs in their last five games and face the Orioles' best pitcher, Dylan Bundy. Bundy is the one Orioles starter who can be counted on. This is a day game and Mets starter Zach Wheeler has a 5.57 day time ERA. The Mets have lost in 13 of their last 16 interleague games.
06-05-18	Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5	Top	7-4	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
These two teams have a strong history of scoring runs against each other. The Over has cashed in 13 of their last 16 meetings for 81 percent. I see that trend continuing when the Cardinals host the Marlins today. The Marlins have surrendered six or more runs in five of their last six games. Miami starter Jose Urena has a 4.41 ERA and a career 8.16 ERA against the Cardinals in three starts. The Marlins have a terrible bullpen. The Cardinals' offense has gotten more deadly with Marcell Ozuna shaking off a slow start to bat .457 during his last 12 games. The Cardinals also get catcher Yadier Molina back from injury. Molina is an elite defensive catcher, but he's also a huge offensive upgrade for the Cardinals at the position. Carlos Martinez will be making his first start in four weeks. So he figures to be rusty. Martinez also has a 5.04 lifetime ERA versus the Marlins in four starts.
06-04-18	Braves +106 v. Padres	Top	4-11	Loss	-100	15 h 41 m	Show
The Braves are at least a year ahead of schedule in their rebuild. They are leading the NL East having just won three of four from the Nationals. Now they head to the West Coast to meet the Padres. I expect the Braves to carry their adrenalin through in winning this first game of the series. Atlanta is the supeior team and has the better starter going in a pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Clayton Richard. I'm surprised the Padres opened a favorite. The oddsmaker is seeing the Padres being 5-2 on their current homestand. That record, however, has been compiled against the Marlins and Reds. Those are the two worst teams in the National League. Even with those five victories, the Padres still are 16-20 at home. They rank 28th in runs scored. Atlanta is in the top-six in runs scored and batting average. The Braves are 6-3 in their last nine games and have scored four or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Teheran has pitched much better on the road going 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA. The Braves are 11-8 versus lefty starters and have a strong history against Richard, who is 0-6 lifetime versus Atlanta with a 6.75 ERA in nine appearances, including six starts. Stephen's Free Monday Play Royals plus $1.65 at Angels I don't believe Nick Tropeano should be a favorite in this price range. He's a No. 5 type pitcher at best and the Angels aren't some powerhouse. They are 14-18 at home, have a weak outfield aside from the great Mike Trout and are vulnerable in the bullpen having arguably lost their two best relief pitchers, Keynan Middleton and Blake Wood, to season-ending elbow injuries. Kansas City has won seven of its last 12 games. Until yesterday, the Royals had gone seven consecutive games without an error. Royals starter Danny Duffy has had a rough season, but he's strung together two straight good outings giving up two runs and eight hits in 13 2/3 innings against the Rangers and Twins. At this big of a 'dog price, I'll put a peanut on the Royals.
06-03-18	Phillies -123 v. Giants		1-6	Loss	-123	12 h 14 m	Show
The Phillies have some young talent that is reaching maturity. It's one reason they are a surprising six games above .500. Another reason for their above average showing is Jake Arrieta is pitching as well as he did when he won the Cy Young Award in 2015. Arrieta isn't getting as many strikeouts as he did three years ago, but he has the highest ground ball rate in the majors this season. Arrieta has permitted just three earned runs in his last five starts spanning 30 innings. He hasn't allowed an earned run during his past two starts spanning 13 2/3 innings. The Giants are a below .500 team. They don't get Madison Bumgarner back until Tuesday and remain without injured Johnny Cueto. Because of this some young San Francisco pitchers have had to make starts. Dereck Rodriguez gets that chance in this game. This will be his first big league start. He pitched for the first time in the majors this past Tuesday and gave up four runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Rockies. Arrieta versus the largely untested Rodriguez is a huge edge for the Phillies, who have also been getting great bullpen pitching. This edge is even higher considering the Giants could be without their two best offensive players. Brandon Belt is on the DL with an appendectomy and Buster Posey is day-to-day because of a bruised elbow.
06-03-18	Brewers v. White Sox OVER 9.5		1-6	Loss	-100	10 h 26 m	Show
The Brewers are helped more than most NL teams when the DH is in play like it is here because they have four good outfielders - Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Milwaukee's offense should be aided by two other key factors here: Expected bad starting and bullpen pitching from the White Sox and a brisk wind blowing out from 16-18 mph. Only four teams have slugged more homers thand the Brewers this season. The Brewers should be able to tee off on second-year man Dylan Covey, who has a 4.15 day ERA and and owns an 8.22 ERA in three interleague lifetime appearances. I'm expecting the White Sox to do their fair share of damage, too, going against the Brewers' worst starter, Brent Suter. He has a 4.63 ERA, doesn't go deep into games and has yielded eight home runs in his last five appearances.
06-03-18	Indians v. Twins OVER 9	Top	5-7	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
Both teams are swinging hot bats. The Indians are averaging eight runs a game during their last seven games if you discount Saturday's freak one-run performance. The Twins are averaging 7.5 runs in their last four games. They have scored seven or more runs in five of their past six games. But will this hot hitting continue? There are key factors that point to it continuing. The pitching matchup is Mike Clevinger versus Kyle Gibson. These are bottom of the rotation starters for these teams. Clevinger has a 4.42 ERS in his last three starts. Gibson possess a 5.76 home ERA. Andrew Miller is on the DL, which greatly reduces the effectiveness of Cleveland's bullpen. The weather forecast calls for winds blowing out to right in the 18-19 mph range. Jerry Layne is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's been behind the plate 10 times this year and the Over has cashed in eight of those appearances.
06-02-18	Marlins v. Diamondbacks -150	Top	2-6	Win	100	13 h 28 m	Show
A major reason why the Marlins have the worst record in the National League is their lack of offense. Miami ranks last in the majors in runs scored and homers. The Marlins were dominated last night by Clay Buchholz, who is on the downside of his career having pitching for three teams in the last three years.Yet Miami managed only one run on six hits in seven innings versus Buchholz, who struck out nine while walking just one. If the Marlins had that much trouble against Buchholz they really figure to struggle against Zach Greinke, who also changes speeds well and still retains his elite status especially when pitching at home. Greinke is 15-1 at Chase Field during the past two seasons. He has a 1.69 home ERA in six starts this year limiting opposing hitters to a .184 mark. Arizona has won 20 of Greinke's past 26 home starts. Greinke is 5-0 lifetime against the Marlins, who have lost the past six times when going up against a righthanded starter. Miami has dropped 32 of its past 45 away games. The Marlins are 1-5 during their last six games at Chase Field. Rookie lefty Caleb Smith has been up-and-down for the Marlins. He's 4-5 with a 3.51 ERA. The rebuilding Marlins are giving Smith a long leash. Smith is capable of coming up with a good performance. But the Diamondbacks have finally begun showing some offense scoring 30 runs in their last four games. That's the most they've scored in a four-game stretch all season. Arizona also is 13-7 this season against southpaw starters.
06-01-18	Reds -103 v. Padres		7-2	Win	100	10 h 20 m	Show
Now that there has been a switch in favorites, I'm going to go against the line move and take the Reds. Cincinnati has better hitters than San Diego and I like Tyler Mahle more than the totally untested Walker Lockett. This will be Lockett's big league debut. He comes up from Triple-A El Paso where he wasn't pitching well with a 2-5 record and 5.31 ERA. Now he has to face Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez. I would take those three guys above any of the Padres hitters with Wil Myers still on the DL. This is what Padres manager Andy Green was quoted as saying about Lockett: "...His numbers are not great right now with El Paso, but this is the time when you start taking looks at guys and he has the opportunity to come up here and establish himself and possibly earn another shot the next time around." That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
06-01-18	Dodgers v. Rockies -105	Top	11-8	Loss	-105	5 h 12 m	Show
This is a cheap price to get the Rockies at home against the Dodgers in what shapes up as a bullpen game for LA. It looks like Scott Alexander is going to get the start now for the Dodgers, but this is an action bet for me meaning I'm taking the Rockies regardless of who the Dodgers start. The Dodgers may be distracted, too, with Clayton Kershaw leaving his last start due to back tightness after just returning from the DL. The Rockies are playing better at home winning their past two series at Coors Field. Their starter, Tyler Anderson, knows how to pitch at Coors. The Dodgers have a losing road record.
06-01-18	A's v. Royals UNDER 9.5	Top	16-0	Loss	-114	19 h 1 m	Show
First off, we have two bottom-10 offenses going at it here. The A's have been held to four or fewer runs in nine of their last 10 games. Of course much of this handicap is based on the starting pitching matchup. That's Frankie Montas versus Ian Kennedy. Montas made his season debut this past Sunday and looked outstanding beating the Diamondbacks, 2-1. He gave up one run in six innings allowing three hits and striking out seven. It's going to take the league some time before they catch on to him. He had a no-hitter through five innings. Kennedy has pitched much better at home where his ERA is 3.66 compared to 7.01 on the road. Kennedy also was sharp in his last start allowing two hits and two runs in five innings versus the Rangers.
05-31-18	Red Sox +1.5 v. Astros	Top	2-4	Loss	-106	11 h 36 m	Show
Drew Pomeranz isn't in great form. But the Red Sox are way undervalued her. They are so undervalued that I can still get a bargain on them at plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball at 39-17. They would be 23-7 in their last 30 games if given 1 1/2 runs. The Astros aren't playing well going 1-4 in their last five games. This also marks Houston's first game back from a seven-game road trip, which isn't a good situational spot. Lance McCullers has a 6.16 ERA in four career starts versus the Red Sox. Pormeranz has a 3.69 lifetime ERA against Houston in 12 appearances.
05-30-18	Angels v. Tigers UNDER 9		1-6	Win	100	11 h 28 m	Show
The weak-hitting Tigers - who rank 27th in homers - get their first look at rookie sensation Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Don't expect much from the Tigers especially still being without Miguel Cabrera. Tigers starter Mike Fiers is an up-and-down pitcher, difficult to predict. But he and Ohtani will be aided by the wind blowing in at 13-15 mph and the large dimensions of Comerica Park, which favor pitching.
05-30-18	Cubs -120 v. Pirates		1-2	Loss	-120	11 h 22 m	Show
The Pirates are a mess and the price is low enough to get involved with the Cubs in a pitching matchup of Kyle Hendricks against Joe Musgrove. Hendricks is as steady as ever with five quality starts in his last six outings. He has a 3.16 ERA on the season. Hendricks is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five career starts at PNC Park. It's safe to believe Hendricks is going to be stingy and the Cubs hold a huge bullpen edge. Chicago has won four of its last five games while the slumping Pirates are 2-9 in their last 11 games and have dropped four in a row. Musgrove is more of a reliever. This is his second start of the year. He has made 26 career starts and has a 5.11 ERA in those appearances.
05-29-18	Phillies +165 v. Dodgers		6-1	Win	165	11 h 31 m	Show
I like the value with the Phillies here. Philadelphia is 29-22 while the Dodgers are three games below .500. But most of all I like a hot Jake Arrieta being this large of an underdog. Arrieta has a 1.06 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers are 5-12 during their past 17 games going against a righthanded starter. Kenta Maeda pitches much better at Dodger Stadium than on the road, but he's trumped by Arrieta. The Phillies have an underrated bullpen. They are a very live 'dog at a very good price.
05-29-18	Nationals +107 v. Orioles		3-2	Win	107	7 h 28 m	Show
Dylan Bundy is Baltimore's best pitcher. But the Orioles still have lost 10 of his past 14 starts. Washington has won 68 percent of its last 59 road games when facing a righthanded starter. The Orioles are in rebuild mode with the second-worst record in baseball. The Nationals are 19-6 in their last 25 games. They also are one of the best road clubs at 18-8. Jeremy Hellickson has exceeded expectations pitching for the Nationals posting a 2.13 ERA in seven starts. The Orioles have scored three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 13 games. Baltimore also has dropped its past nine interleague games.
05-29-18	Astros -117 v. Yankees		5-6	Loss	-117	7 h 27 m	Show
The Yankees aren't quite as good as the defending world champion Astros and CC Sabathia is their weak link in their starting rotation. Sabathia has a 6.05 ERA in his last four starts. He gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Rangers during his last start. The Astros have a far better offense than the Rangers. Houston is a top road team at 19-9. The Astros are 10-7 versus southpaws this season and have won 14 of their last 19 games. If it weren't for Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton would be getting a lot more respect. Morton has won his last 10 decisions going back to last year. He is 7-0 with a 2.04 ERA this year.
05-29-18	Cubs -115 v. Pirates	Top	8-6	Win	100	8 h 31 m	Show
This is a short price to get the much superior Cubs here with a much superior pitching advantage. Jon Lester is having another strong season posting a 1.69 ERA in his last seven starts. He hasn't surrendered more than two runs in each of his last five starts. The Pirates are going with rookie Nick Kingham to fill in for injured Ivan Nova. The Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 games and have bullpen issues.
05-28-18	Twins v. Royals UNDER 9.5		8-5	Loss	-120	10 h 45 m	Show
This total is too high given the lack of scoring from both teams. Minnesota has scored only six runs in its last four games. The Twins have scored four or fewer runs in 11 of their past 13 games. The Under has cashed in the Twins' last six games. The Royals haven't scored more than five runs in 14 of their last 15 games. Royals starter Jakob Junis is below-the-radar and Lance Lynn is showing signs of rounding into shape. He's off his best game of the season blanking the Tigers on five hits for 6 2/3 innings this past Tuesday.
05-28-18	Marlins v. Padres OVER 7		7-2	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
I don't think it's too difficult for each of these teams to put up at least four runs given a starting pitching matchup of rookies Caleb Smith against Eric Lauer. Smith has pitched some good games, but is weaker on the road where his ERA is 4.18. The Marlins have given up 18 runs in their last three games and have a weak bullpen. Lauer probably shouldn't be in a major league rotation. He's made six big league starts and has a 6.67 ERA.
05-28-18	Rays +127 v. A's		1-0	Win	127	7 h 32 m	Show
The buy sign is on with Chris Archer, who has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. I'll take him at a 'dog price against journeyman Trevor Cahill, who is coming off a season high 102 pitches in his last game. Oakland has been struggling with its best power hitter, Khris Davis, on the DL managing to average only two runs per game during its past six games. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven away games.
05-28-18	Mets -121 v. Braves		3-4	Loss	-121	4 h 38 m	Show
Jacob deGrom is right up there with the best pitchers in baseball. He's 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and is in dominant form giving up only one run in his last 33 1/3 innings. He has 29 strikeouts in his last 19 innings. Lifetime, deGrom has a 1.89 ERA versus the Braves in 13 starts. So it's easy to back deGrom especially going against Max Fried, who has a 6.00 ERA in relief and will be making his first start of the season. This could end up being a bullpen game for the Braves. Atlanta's focus could be off for several reasons. The Braves has been on the road for the past six games, are off a huge upset win against Chris Sale and their star rookie outfielder, Ronald Acuna Jr., suffered a scary leg injury on Sunday. His status won't be determined until today.
05-27-18	Diamondbacks -102 v. A's		1-2	Loss	-102	6 h 17 m	Show
Frankie Montas is slated to make his first big league appearance of the season today starting against the Diamondbacks. This will be just his third start in the majors. The Diamondbacks are struggling, but I'm not buying this line. Zack Greinke still is an elite pitcher. Greinke is pitching on extra rest, too. Arizona is 12-4 the past 16 times he has pitched on five days rest. The A's can be tough at home. I recognize this. But they aren't some super power. They don't steal bases, are bad defensively, their bullpen is down a key setup man and their top slugger, Khris Davis, is out.
05-26-18	Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers		7-5	Win	100	17 h 49 m	Show
The Dodgers have started to play better, but they are four games below .500. This is because they are just 12-20 against righthanded starters, including 1-7 during their past eight home games against a righy starter. I believe Jordan Lyles can hang with Alex Wood especially with the Padres taking 1 1/2 runs in a game projected to have fewer than eight runs scored. Lyles has posted a 2.50 ERA in three starts this season. San Diego is 2-0 during his last two starts. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Padres would be 13-6 in their last 19 games.
05-26-18	Twins +132 v. Mariners		3-4	Loss	-100	17 h 48 m	Show
I'm going to take this 'dog price with a hot Jake Odorizzi against 33-year-old journeyman Wade LeBlanc. Odorizzi has a 1.08 ERA in his last three starts. The Twins just got back Miguel Sano, their best power hitter, from injury and have won nine of the past 13 times in Seattle. I will say LeBlanc has pitched well since joining the starting rotation. But he's never been able to achieve consistency. The Mariners are the seventh team he's pitched for since 2011. Regression to the norm is overdue. The Mariners are scraping for runs averaging 2.4 during their past five games. They are without injured Dee Gordon and Robinson Cano.
05-25-18	Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8	Top	3-4	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
The Brewers have been shut out nine times this season. That's the most in the majors. It wouldn't shock me if they were shut out for a 10th time in this spot going against Noah Syndergaard. Discount a nine-run game against the Diamondbacks and Milwaukee has scored six runs in its last four games. Syndergaard is healthy and an absolute monster. He's allowed three runs or fewer during each of his past nine starts. He has a 0.49 ERA in three career starts versus the Brewers. Brewers starter Junior Guerra is a late bloomer, who has settled into being a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. He has a 3.02 career ERA at home and is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball with the top arms all fresh. Guerra has allowed only one run in 12 3/3 innings lifetime against the Mets. The Mets' offense is way down minus injured Yoenis Cespedes, their most feared bat, and Todd Frazier. New York has been held to three runs or fewer in nine of its last 13 games. There's a good chance, too, that the roof is closed at Miller Park because of the threat of rain. That would be an added plus for the pitchers.
05-23-18	Pirates -113 v. Reds		5-4	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
If the price is low enough - like it is here - I'll stand in line to fade Homer Bailey. Pirates starter Chad Kuhl is bottom of the rotation material. But Bailey shouldn't even be in the big leagues anymore. He's living off a couple of no-hitters. Bailey has been bad for several years now and he's getting worse with a 6.11 ERA. He's allowed nine earned runs and 20 hits in his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Cincinnati has lost 17 of Bailey's last 21 starts. Homer-friendly Great American Ball Park is a very bad fit for Bailey, a flyball pitcher. Kuhl has a history of pitching better on the road than at home and the Pirates hold a bullpen edge.
05-22-18	Marlins v. Mets -110		5-1	Loss	-110	9 h 46 m	Show
The Marlins have lost three in a row and still reeling from blowing a huge lead against the Braves this past Sunday when Atlanta scored six runs in the ninth.That was a devastating loss for such a young team. The Mets are playing much better having won four in a row. Caleb Smith is 1-3 with a 5.29 road ERA while Mets starter Zach Wheeler has a strong history against the Marlins with a 3- record and 2.15 ERA in eight starts.
05-21-18	Diamondbacks -115 v. Brewers		2-4	Loss	-115	12 h 58 m	Show
The lay price is low enough to back Zach Greinke, who still is an elite pitcher and in great form with a 1.45 ERA during his last three starts. Chase Anderson is due to come off the DL to pitch for Milwaukee. He hasn't pitched as well as he did last season and isn't in good form having allowed nine runs in his last 10 2/3 innings. What's worrisome about Anderson is he's surrendered 10 homers already in 45 1/3 innings. The Diamondbacks know Anderson well, too, since he pitched for them in 2014 and 2015.
05-20-18	Indians +124 v. Astros	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	10 h 21 m	Show
It's not often you get Carlos Carrasco as an underdog. So I'm going to take advantage of this rarity. I like Lance McCullers Jr. But the Astros are 2-5 in his last seven home starts and he's trumped in my pitcher ratings by Carrasco. The Indians have won 69 percent of Carrasco's last 51 road starts. Carrasco has a strong history versus Houston and is pitching on extra rest. Cleveland is 16-5 the past 21 times Carrasco has pitched on five days rest. Carrasco is 3-1 career-wise against the Astros with a 2.67 ERA. He is 2-0 and unscored upon in the two games he's pitched at Minute Maid Park. The Indians have scored five or more runs in seven of their last 10 games. They've scored six or more runs in six of their last nine games.
05-19-18	Brewers v. Twins UNDER 8.5		5-4	Loss	-100	11 h 6 m	Show
Baseball is still finding out about Freddy Peralta and Fernando Romero. These young pitchers have been dominant. Peralta made his big league debut a memorable one this past Sunday striking out 13 Rockies in 5 2/3 innings in a 7-3 victory. Peralta yieled just one hit and two walks while holding Colorado scoreless. That was at Coors Field, too, the premier hitter's park. The Twins certainly aren't familiar with Peralta. They're down two key bats with Miguel Sano out and Joe Mauer not likely to play either after getting injured on Friday. Romero has made three starts spanning 16 2/3 innings. He's surrendered one earned run and has 20 strikeouts.The Brewers are missing key bats, too, with Ryan Braun and Eric Thames out. Both pitchers catch a weather break as the wind will be blowing in at 13-14 mph.
05-18-18	A's v. Blue Jays -114		3-1	Loss	-114	9 h 4 m	Show
Playing on unfamiliar Astroturf has something to do with it, but Oakland just doesn't fare well at Rogers Centre when playing the Blue Jays on the road. The A's beat the Blue Jays for just the second time in the last 14 games in Toronto last night. I don't see the A's repeating that in a pitching matchup of Brett Anderson versus Marco Estrada. Oakland is 7-19 in its last 26 games on Astroturf. Estrada is pitching on an extra day of rest. Toronto is 9-3 the past 12 times Estrada has thrown on five days rest. I've lost all hope with Anderson. He's too brittle and inconsistent. This marks his fourth start of the season. He's been a tease and sure enough he looked good in his first start. However, he's 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA during his last two starts. The Blue Jays know him well since Anderson made seven starts with Toronto last season compiling a 5.13 ERA.
05-16-18	Indians -1.5 v. Tigers		6-0	Win	100	3 h 43 m	Show
Trevor Bauer has had six quality outings in his last seven starts. I regard him as a "B" level pitcher. He's facing a Tigers lineup that is missing three regulars - Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario and Leonys Martin. Detroit's lineup wasn't potent even before these injuries. Bauer holds a monster edge on Detroit's Ryan Carpenter, who will be making just his second big league start. Carpenter has a 7.36 ERA in the majors. He was 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA with Toledo in the minors. The Tigers aren't likely to have closer Shane Greene either. Greene has pitched the past four days. But that shouldn't even matter as I see this as a kill spot for the Indians.
05-15-18	Cubs -124 v. Braves		3-2	Win	100	10 h 3 m	Show
The Braves have been one of rhe surprise teams this season, but this is a bad spot for them. Atlanta is home for the first time in nine days. So concentration could be a problem. The Braves just beat the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Monday in a makeup game. So they lost their off day to get their domestic lives in order following a lengthy road trip. Look for the Cubs to even the series. They have won the past five times when playing in Atlanta. Yu Darvish goes against Mike Foltynewicz. Darvish is much better than he's shown so far with the Cubs. He returns from the DL supposedly with adjustments made. I see him getting turned around. Foltynewicz doesn't go deep into games putting a strain on a taxed Braves bullpen. He also has a poor history versus the Cubs with a lifetime mark of 0-2 and 7.36 ERA. The Braves are 3-12 in the righthander's last 15 starts. The Cubs have won 74 percent of their past 42 road games against righthanded starters.
05-15-18	Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5		0-4	Loss	-113	3 h 22 m	Show
Bottom line here is simple: I just don't believe these two starters merit a total of less than 8. German Marquez has pitched better away from Coors Field, but he's a bottom of the rotation type with a 5.48 lifetime ERA versus the Padres, including four starts. Jordan Lyles is a middle reliever, who has yet to prove he is starter material. He has a 6.07 lifetime ERA against the Rockies in 10 appearances, including four starts.
05-14-18	Mariners v. Twins -105		1-0	Loss	-105	9 h 2 m	Show
Seattle is about to experience life without its rock, Robinson Cano. The eight-time All-Star second baseman is out with a broken hand suffered on Sunday. That's a shock for the Mariners. I'm going to fade them in this their first game without Cano this season. It's not just Cano being out. The Mariners are pitching journeyman lefty Wade LeBlanc. The Twins are 10-1 (91%) in their last 11 home games when facing a southpaw starter. The Twins have scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts.
05-14-18	Rays v. Royals OVER 9		2-1	Loss	-120	9 h 20 m	Show
The Rays are surrendering an average of 8.7 runs in their last four games. The Royals are giving up an average of 8.1 runs during their last six games. Neither bullpen is strong and the starting pitching matchup pits two bad southpaws, Ryan Yarborough versus Eric Skoglund. Throw in weather conditions where the wind is blowing out at 10-15 mph and I'll wager that these two teams combine to hit the double-digit scoring barrier.
05-11-18	Reds v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	6-2	Loss	-100	12 h 51 m	Show
The Reds can hope. But their hopes are going to be in vain if they expect Matt Harvey to resmeble anything like his All-Star form of 2013 before multiple injuries, including Tommy John surgery, derailed his effectiveness. Harvey is 9-19 during the past three seasons with ERA's of 4.86, 6.70 last season and 7.00 in four starts this season. He's surrendered six homers in 27 innings this year and hasn't pitched in eight days. So I'm certainly not expecting much from Harvey. Neither should the Reds. Harvey is likely to be rusty. So this could mean an early call for the Cincinnati bullpen, which isn't very good except for closer Raisel Iglesias and he carries a high fatigue rating having pitching 3 1/3 innings the past two days throwing 42 pitches. The Dodgers have been underachieving. They are due and they aren't going to lack motivation after losing 4-1 to the Reds last night. The Reds have the worst record in the National League at 11-27. Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is far more effective pitching at home where his ERA is 1.98 this season.
05-11-18	Brewers v. Rockies -125		11-10	Loss	-125	10 h 45 m	Show
Chad Bettis has been pitching very well for the Rockies this season. He's 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. Colorado is 19-7 in his last 26 home starts. The Rockies are back to full health, too. So I'm willing to lay this price with Bettis against Brandon Woodruff, who is filling in for Zach Davies. The Brewers are 2-7 the past nine times facing a foe with a winning record.
05-10-18	Twins +136 v. Angels		4-7	Loss	-100	14 h 29 m	Show
I see excellent value to the Twins. The spot and pitching matchup is good for them. Minnesota was idle on Wednesday and has won five in a row. The Twins are averaging 6.4 runs during their win streak and playing well in all aspects. They are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the Angels. There's a good chance the Twins activate Byron Buxton from the DL for this game. He could be the premier defensive centerfielder in baseball. The Angels blanked the Rockies in Colorado Wednesday. This is their first home game in a week so their concentration may be off. The pitching matchup is Jose Berrios against Garrett Richards. I regard the 23-year-old Berrios as not just an emerging star, but a star already. Richards made just 12 starts the previous two years due to serios injuries. He has been up and down this season. Just two starts ago he was racked at home by the Yankees giving up five earned runs on five hits in 1 2/3 innings. The Angels have played much better on the road than at home where they are 8-10 this season.
05-09-18	Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 9		2-5	Loss	-120	12 h 48 m	Show
This total is set too low given a pitching matchup of Wade LeBlanc versus Jaime Garica. LeBlanc is a 33-year-old journeyman who will be making only his second big league start in three years. He's filling in for injured Erasmo Ramirez. Garcia has turned into a journeyman after a promising career with the Cardinals was derailed by constant injuries. The southpaw has gotten worse since the start of the season with an 0-2 record and 9.88 ERA during his last three starts. The Mariners have one of the better offenses against lefthanders. The Blue Jays also are without closer Robert Osuna, who is awaiting a likely suspension. This not only leaves Toronto vulnerable in the ninth inning, but also weakens the team in the seventh and eighth innings.
05-08-18	Astros v. A's UNDER 8	Top	4-2	Win	100	19 h 30 m	Show
Forget that the Astros scored 16 runs on the A's in Monday night's game. This matchup is going to be a pitching duel between Lance McCullers Jr. and Sean Manaea, two of my favorite young and promising pitchers. McCullers can be streaky. Right now he's in great from going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts. His night ERA this season is 1.42. The A's aren't swinging hot bats. They are averaging only two runs per game during their last three games and haven't scored more than three runs in six of their last seven games. Oakland may not have outfielder Stephen Piscotty back in its lineup either. Piscotty's mother passed away on Sunday night and he has been away from the team. Manaea is having a break through season going 4-3 with a 1.63 ERA. He's 2-1 with a 0.73 ERA when pitching at spacious and pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. The Under is 10-1-1 during Manea's last 12 starts. Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire. That's a plus for the under given Eddings' generous strike zone. The under has cashed four of five times Eddings has been behind the plate this year.
05-07-18	Twins +130 v. Cardinals		6-0	Win	130	13 h 34 m	Show
The Twins are playing better winning four of their last five games, including the past three. They are in a great spot to make it four victories in a row. The Cardinals just got through surviving a 14-inning, 4-3 win against the Cubs in the ESPN Sunday Night Game. St. Louis likely won't have its best offensive player, Tommy Pham, in the starting lineup due to a groin injury. Closer Bud Norris probably is out, too. The Cardinals' bullpen is carrying a heavy fatigue rating having just concluded two extra inning games. But what really makes it rough for John Gant, set to make his first big league start of the season for the Cardinals, is no Yadier Molina. Forget Molina's contributions on offense. He's a Hall of Fame defensive backstop. Molina's intangibles such as calling pitches and framing strikes is off the charts as is his veteran leadership. The Twins are pitching Fernando Romero, a top-100 prospect. This will be his second big league start. Romero held Toronto scoreless in 5 1/3 innings during his big league debut this past Wednesday. Romero averaged 96 mph on his fastball while striking out five. Romero's upside is far higher than Gant's.
05-06-18	Cubs +108 v. Cardinals	Top	3-4	Loss	-100	12 h 20 m	Show
Given that I prefer Jon Lester over Michael Wacha and the Cardinals have three important injuries, the Cubs are a worthy investment. Lester is having a strong season with a winning record and 2.73 ERA. The Cubs have won 68 percent of Lester's previous 59 starts. Lester has a solid 3.16 ERA in 15 career starts against St. Louis. Chicago is 4-0 the past four times Lester has gone against the Cardinals. I rate Wacha a tier lower than Lester. He's been fortunate to post a 4-1 mark this season with a 3.62 ERA. Wach has a bad history versus the Cubs going 4-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. St. Louis is 0-4 the last four times Wacha has gone against the Cubs. St. Louis isn't likely to have Tommy Pham, its best offensive weapon, Yadier Molina and closer Bud Norris. All suffered injuries in the Cardinals' come-from-behind victory on Saturday. The Cardinals' bullpen is further depleted with Dominic Leone out with a biceps injured.
05-04-18	Pirates v. Brewers -116	Top	6-4	Loss	-116	15 h 53 m	Show
We knew the Pirates were going to be bad this season and they are starting to prove that going 6-11 in their last 17 games, including losses in their last four games. Pittsburgh has lost in its last seven road games. I don't see the Pirates getting well against the Brewers, a team they have a history of struggling against. I'm looking to fade Nick Kingham. The long-time minor leaguer made his first big league start this past Sunday and took a perfect game into the seventh inning in a 5-0 win against the Cardinals. That was a huge thrill and a great debut. It certainly caught the Brewers' notice. Kingham has a 43-41 record in nine years in the minors. The Brewers are expected to have Travis Shaw and Ryan Braun in the lineup today. Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been a pleasant surprise He was 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 2016. He had a bad season last year, but has returned to his form of two years ago with a 2-1 mark and 0.82 ERA. He has not allowed more than one run during each of his four starts this season. The 33-year-old is a classic late bloomer. Opponents are batting only .176 against him. If you discount the Cubs sweeping the Brewers, Milwaukee would be 11-0 in its last 11 games.
05-03-18	Yankees v. Astros -120	Top	6-5	Loss	-120	10 h 8 m	Show
The Astros haven't lost three straight home games all season and I don't see it happening here. Not with a pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka versus Lance McCullers. Tanaka has a 9.00 ERA in two lifetime starts against the Astros at Minute Maid Park and a 10.38 ERA mark versus Houston in four career starts. McCullers has a very strong history at Minute Maid Park where his lifetime ERA is 2.33 compared to 4.97 on the road. McCullers is in strong form with a 3-0 mark and 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. He's faced the Yankees three times in his career and is 2-0 against them with a 2.08 ERA.
05-02-18	Yankees v. Astros +115		4-0	Loss	-100	11 h 51 m	Show
The chance to get Dallas Keuchel as an underdog is too much to pass up. Keuchel was back on track in two starts before his last outing. I see him bouncing back against the Yankees, a foe he has dominated. Keuchel is 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA in six career regular season starts versus New York and 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in three career playoff starts against the Yankees. Houston has won 71 percent of Keuchel's last 52 home starts. The Yankees are 1-7 in their past eight games at Minute Maid Stadium. Yankees starter Luis Severino emerged as a star last season. My handicap is based far more on Keuchel and the Astros than a fade on Severino. However, Sevrino is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA in three career appearances against the Astros.
05-02-18	Rays v. Tigers UNDER 8		2-3	Win	100	7 h 0 m	Show
Two hot pitchers go here. But that's not the only reason I like Under the total. Neither offense has been scoring many runs and this is a day game where weather factors. Tigers starter Michael Fulmer has a strong history when pitching during the day with a career ratio of less 1.00. Commerica Park is a pitcher's park and the wind is blowing in at 15-19 mph. The Rays have scored only seven runs in their last three games. The Tigers haven't scored more than three runs during six of their last seven games. Tamp Bay starter Blake Snell is below the radar right now. He hasn't given up more than two runs during any of his past four starts. He has a 34-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio during these four games spanning 26 2/3 innings. Snell would catch a break if Miguel Cabrera has to sit out for a third straight game due to a left biceps injury. Fullmer is looking for his third straight strong start. He's allowed two earned runs during his last two starts spanning 13 innings. He has a 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his last two starts. Fullmer has a 2.36 career ERA versus the Rays in four starts.
05-01-18	White Sox v. Cardinals -1.5		2-3	Loss	-115	13 h 42 m	Show
The White Sox are dreadful with an 8-18 record and minus 42-run differential. I don't understand why James Shields is part of the White Sox's starting rotation. Shields is an over-the-hill innings-eater who I regard as one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. He had a 5.23 ERA last year and is even worse this year with a 6.14 ERA. Chicago has lost in 14 of Shields' past 19 road starts. Chicago is 1-4 in Shields' five starts this season giving up 35 runs in those four defeats. The Cardinals have won six of their last eight home games. The White Sox have dropped 11 of their last 13 interleague road matchups. MIchael Wacha is two levels higher than Shields. So I have no problem laying 1 1/2 runs in order to reduce the high juice associated with fading Shields.
05-01-18	Brewers -113 v. Reds		7-6	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
I'll back Chase Anderson, the Brewers' best starting pitcher, at this short road price. The 30-year-old Anderson is a late-bloomer, who turned the corner last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. He's continued in good form this season with a 2.86 ERA. He has a 2.68 lifetime ERA against the Reds in seven games. Anderson has a 0.93 ERA in three road starts this season holding foes to a .127 batting average. Milwaukee is 8-3 in Anderson's past 11 starts. So it's reasonable to expect a solid game from Anderson. I also like the Brewers' bullpen better than the Reds even without closer Corey Knebel. Cincinnati has the worst record in the majors at 7-22. The Reds are a better team than that, but not that much better. They just got back Eugenio Suarez, but aren't likely to have Scotter Gennett in the starting lineup due to a sore throwing shoulder. He's the Reds' leading hitter with players who have more than 83 at bats. If you discount their recent series against the Cubs, the Brewers would be 9-0 in their last nine games. I'm not a fan of Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey. He seems to throw one excellent game and four bad ones for every five outings. The Reds are 7-19 in his last 26 starts. Cincinnati also has dropped 16 of its past 21 home contests. Bailey hasn't had a winning record during the past four seasons. His ERA during the past two years is 6.65 and 6.43. He's winless this season with a 4.19 ERA. He has a 4.65 career ERA versus Milwaukee in 26 games.
04-30-18	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -131	Top	5-8	Win	100	11 h 18 m	Show
I'm sure the Dodgers will get straighten out. Right now, though, they are mess. Their 12-15 record is deserving. They have injuries and many of their better players are off to slow starts. Arizona, by contrast, has the best record in the National League at 19-8. The Diamondbacks have yet to lose a series this season. There's no reason for things not to continue the way they have in today's game. The Diamondbacks are going with their ace, Zach Greinke. Arizona is 22-8 in Greinke's last 30 home starts, including 14-1 the past two seasons. The Dodgers are going to go with Ross Stripling, who has pitched well this season but in middle relief. He's not expected to pitch too many innings so this is looking like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Their bullpen has been below average this season. Arizona has dominated the Dodgers winning 11 of the past 12 regular season meetings, including going 5-1 this season with a three-gamd home sweep at the beginning of the month. The Dodgers are down Justin Turner and now Yasiel Puig, who was put on the DL Sunday. LA is 1-5 in its last six games and facing fatigue issues having played four games during the last three days, including a Saturday doubleheader. This is a cheap price to lay to get Greinke especially given the circumstances.
04-29-18	Yankees v. Angels UNDER 9		2-1	Win	100	8 h 40 m	Show
Both starting pitchers - CC Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs - have looked good this season. But there are a couple of hidden keys that also make the Under a worthy investment. This is a rare 5 p.m. West Coast start time for the Angels, done to accommodate the game being nationally televised by ESPN. Those who have attended games in Anaheim during this rare time at Angel Stadium know how tough it is for batters to see the ball because of twillight shadows. Sabathia has a 1.86 ERA this season. Sabathia may catch a break if Shohei Ohtani has to sit out because of an ankle injury that has pushed back his next pitching start. The Under has won an amazing 75 percent of the time during Sabathia's past 22 road starts. Skaggs has a 2.96 ERA and showing signs of turning the corner on his one-time promising career. The Yankees have never faced Skaggs giving him an element of surprise advantage. Note, too, that Angel Hernandez is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's a been huge Under ump during the past three years, known for his generous strike zone. The Under is 16-5 in Hernandez's last 21 home plate appearances.
04-29-18	Rockies -109 v. Marlins		0-3	Loss	-109	2 h 47 m	Show
Better team. Better pitcher. Decent line value. So, yes, I'm on the Rockies here. The knock on the Rockies is they aren't a good road team. But they are 8-3 during their past 11 away contests. And they're playing the Marlins, perhaps the worst team in the majors. The Marlins have dropped eight of their last 10 home games. Chad Bettis has been the Rockies' most consistent starter this season. He's pitched well away from Coors Field going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. He's in good form, too, with a 2.40 ERA in his last three starts. Bettis may avoid the Marlins' best power hitter, Justin Bour, who missed yesterday's game because of back spasms. Miami starter Caleb Smith has yet to win in the majors. The rookie is 0-4 with a 6.69 ERA. The Rockies have the stronger lineup and it could be bolstered even more if DJ LeMathieu and Carlos Gonzalez are able to play.
04-28-18	A's v. Astros -1.5	Top	0-11	Win	100	12 h 25 m	Show
Coming off an embarrassing 8-1 home loss to the A's and sizzling Sean Manaea on Friday, the Astros should get back on track in a big way facing Daniel Mengden. The Astros' last seven victories all have been by at least three runs. Mengden was drafted by the Astros four years ago and then traded to Oakland. He's yet to find success with the A's. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA in four career starts versus Houston. The A's bullpen is down injured setup man Ryan Buchter. Houston has won 40 of its last 57 (70%) homes when going against a right-handed starter. The Astros have the superior starter, Lance McCullers, and bullpen going here. McCullers pitches much better at Minute Maid Park. This is just his second home start of the season. He gave up two earned runs in five innings to the Padres in his first home start this year. McCullers was 4-0 with a 3.04 home ERA last year compared to 3-4 with a 5.14 road ERA. Two years ago, McCullers was 5-3 with a 2.40 ERA pitching at Minute Maid Park while going 1-2 on the road with a 5.57 ERA. So the pattern clearly is established that McCullers is a much better home park pitcher.
04-27-18	White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9		7-4	Loss	-100	9 h 39 m	Show
Reynaldo Lopez is pitching way below-the-radar screen and Danny Duffy is overdue to throw a good game. Now that he's making his first night appearance of the season, this could happen for Duffy. Duffy entered the season as the Royals' No. 1 starter. He has not pitched well so far this season. However, Duffy has a history of pitching better at night and he's home. The Under has cashed in nine of Duffy's last 12 home starts. Duffy was 1-5 with a 4.60 ERA in day games last season, compared to 8-5 with a 3.46 ERA during night games. The Royals could catch a break if Jose Abreu, the White Sox best and most feared hitter, has to miss a second consecutive game due to flu symptons. Lopez's record is 0-2. He has a 1.50 ERA, though, and hasn't given up more than four hits, or two runs, during any of his four starts this year. Both offenses are below average. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs scored. They've scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. The Royals' offense is even worse. Kansas City ranks 29th in runs scored, 27th in home runs and is in the bottom-five in batting average with runners in scoring position. The Royals also have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.
04-26-18	Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 8.5		8-2	Win	100	4 h 47 m	Show
After scoring five runs in six innings off Zach Greinke on Wednesday, the Phillies drop down to face Matt Koch. He's a replacement for injured Taijuan Walker. Koch pitched well in his first start this season. But that was against the Padres. He does not have a high ceiling. The Diamondbacks are starting to get production from their Big Two of Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. The Diamondbacks draw Ben Lively, a second-year starter who also has a low ceiling. The Diamondbacks are familar with Lively. He was 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in two appearances against Arizona last season. The Over has won in Arizona's last seven road contests. Citizens Bank Park is one of the better hitter's parks in the majors and hitters will get addition help from a wind blowing out at 12-14 mph out to right field.
04-25-18	Rays +105 v. Orioles		8-4	Win	105	6 h 38 m	Show
Tampa Bay has won four in a row. The Rays have scored 26 runs in their last three games. The Orioles are 6-17 on the season and have lost nine of their last 10. So, unless Dylan Bundy is on the mound, I'm fading the Orioles when they are chalk like they are here. The pitching matchup is Jake Faria versus Alex Cobb. Faria has a lot of upside. He's pitched well in three of his four starts this season giving up just one earned run in three of those outings. The Orioles are buried by injuries right now. Mark Trumbo and Colby Rasmus are out. Jonathan Schoop and Tim Beckham aren't likely to play. Trey Mancini could be out, too. These injuries have forced the Orioles to start Anthony Santander in the outfield and he's not ready for the big leagues yet. Cobb has a 15.43 ERA on the season giving up 12 earned runs on 20 hits in seven innings. Cobb signed late and I doubt he's in shape yet. The Rays know Cobb well since he pitched for them from 2011 through last season.
04-24-18	A's -109 v. Rangers		3-2	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
Quietly Oakland has gone above .500 on the season. The A's have won seven of their last eight games. Their underrated offense ranks in the top-six in runs, homers and batting average. They also have some underrated pitchers such as Andrew Triggs, who is slated to pitch today. Texas is going to be very bad again this season. The Rangers are 3-11 at home, have one of the worst bullpens in the majors and are down their two starting middle infielders, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. Triggs has pitched well in three of his four starts this season. He's facing Cole Hamels, who carries a big reputation but really isn't that good anymore. Hamels had a 4.20 ERA last season. It's 4.76 this year. Triggs has a 1.02 lifetime ERA versus the Rangers in four appearances, including three starts. The A's beat the Rangers, 3-1, at home behind Triggs three weeks ago.
04-23-18	Mariners -142 v. White Sox		4-10	Loss	-142	12 h 31 m	Show
The White Sox are 1-8 at home. They've been lit up for 57 runs during their last six games with a horrific bullpen. The White Sox offense has produced two or fewer runs in seven of their past eight games. It's not a shock then that the White Sox are riding a seven-game losing streak. So Mike Leake's task shouldn't be that difficult. Leake is more innings-eater than star, but he's reliable and has pitched well since joining the Mariners last season. The White Sox have never faced him. The Mariners are 9-2 when scoring at least four runs. That shouldn't prove difficult against Carson Fulmer, who is replacing scheduled starter Miguel Gonzalez.
04-21-18	Mariners -157 v. Rangers		9-7	Win	100	12 h 9 m	Show
Bartolo Colon has a 1.45 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP and is holding opponents to a .177 batting average. Scary to think what if the 44-year-old Colon was 20 years younger and weighed 100 fewer pounds? But he isn't and doesn't. Colon is due to get lit up and I see it happening here after Colon flirted with a perfect game in his last start this past Sunday retiring the first 21 Houston batters before walking a hitter in the eighth inning and then giving up a double. Colon threw a season-high 96 pitches - a lot for this time of year - and I want to fade him after that magnificent performance. The Rangers are one of the worse teams again this season. They have lost 20 of their last 27 home games and are 0-4 the past four times facing lefty starters. Seattle is going with southpaw James Paxton, who I rate as a "B" tier pitcher. The Mariners' lineup has been fortified with the return from injury of Nelson Cruz, Ben Gamel and Mike Zunimo
04-20-18	Indians -110 v. Orioles	Top	1-3	Loss	-110	17 h 4 m	Show
I respect Dylan Bundy, but the Orioles are terrible and the price is low enough to back the much superior Indians. Baltimore is 5-14, losers of six in a row. Cleveland is one of the best teams in baseball, better than the Orioles in every facet. The Indians have started to get into gear winning six of their last eight. Trevor Bauer gets the start for Cleveland. Bauer looked sharp in his last outing giving up two runs on seven hits in seven innings against the Tigers this past Thursday in a 9-3 win. Bauer said he had his best stuff working for him in that game. Bundy has been the Orioles' lone decent starter this season. He's been helped pitching in cold weather. Still, the Orioles don't win for him. Baltimore is 1-6 in his last seven starts. The temperatures will be in the high 50's for this game, almost balmy compared to how cold it has been. Budy has a 5.06 career ERA versus the Indians in two starts. Cleveland has won 27 of its last 37 road games. The Indians have defeated the Orioles five times in a row.
04-19-18	Blue Jays +143 v. Yankees		3-4	Loss	-100	11 h 60 m	Show
Perception-wise this line makes some sense. The Yankees are the Yankees, the most public of teams, and they are home. But right now this line doesn't reflect reality. The Yankees are struggling. They are 8-8, batting only .248 and averaging more than one error per game. The Blue Jays are 12-5. They've won four in a row and have the better starting pitcher going in matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus CC Sabathia. Just two years ago, Sanchez was being regarded as one of the best young pitchers in baseball going 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He missed most of last season with blister issues. Sanchez is healthy this year and he's put together back-to-back quality starts. He has a 3.03 career ERA against the Yankees. Sabathia is in the twillight of his career and frequently gets hurt. He's coming off the DL to make this start. He last pitched on April 6 before straining his right hip. Sabathia has a 7.37 ERA during his past 12 starts against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are 9-3 in Sabathia's past 12 starts against them.
04-17-18	White Sox v. A's OVER 8	Top	2-10	Win	100	12 h 47 m	Show
Oakland is underrated offensively right now. The A's have scored 38 runs in their last five games. They rank in the top-five in batting average and home runs. The A's not only have power in the outfield and at the corners, but also in the middle infield with Marcus Siemien and Jed Lowrie. The A's should be able to tee off on 33-year-old Miguel Gonzalez, who I regard as one of the weakest starting pitchers in baseball. Gonzalez may not be in Chicago's starting rotation much longer. He's allowed nine earned runs and 16 hits in his first two starts this season spanning 9 1/3 innings. Gonzalez hasn't reached the sixth inning in either of his starts and Chicago has a below average bullpen. Gonzalez is 0-3 lifetime versus Oakland with a 4.11 ERA in six appearances, including five starts. He's also going to be rusty having not pitched in eight days. The White Sox should do their share of damage against journeyman Trevor Cahill, who was subpar in the minors this season until getting the call to pitch this game. Cahill has a 4.21 career ERA against the White Sox in 12 appearances, including nine starts. Oakland's bullpen is vulnerable, too. Both weather and the home plate umpire are pluses, too, for the Over. The forecast is for temperatues in the 50's - which is balmy compared to other baseball sites in this cold weather April - with the wind blowing out to right at 15 mph. Chad Whitson is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's been full-time in the majors since 2016. The Over has cashed during 60 percent of his 43 games behind the plate.
04-16-18	Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7.5	Top	10-3	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
I'm not impressed with a starting pitching matchup of Hyun-Jin Ryu versus fill-in starter Robbie Erlin. Ryu is far less effective on the road while Erlin is a reliever who is starting here because Luis Perdomo is suspended. So this could be a bullpen game for the Padres, who are weak in middle relief. The Dodgers' offense is showing signs of coming around scoring six or more runs in three of their last four games. The Padres' offense is underrated. San Diego has scored four or more runs in six of its last seven games. The Padres just scored a combined 20 runs at home in their last three games versus the Giants.
04-14-18	Brewers +106 v. Mets		5-1	Win	106	15 h 46 m	Show
The Brewers are showing signs of turning around their offense. I like Milwaukee's Chase Anderson over Matt Harvey so the pitching matchup is in Milwaukee's favor. The Brewers are 17-8 the past 25 times going against a right-handed starter and have defeated the Mets seven of the last 10 times despite losing by one run in the opening game of the series on Friday. The Mets are down to their third-string catcher. That's going to catch up to them real fast.
04-13-18	A's v. Mariners +110	Top	4-7	Win	110	13 h 8 m	Show
Throwing at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field agrees with Mike Leake. He is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in five career starts at Safeco since coming to the Mariners last season. Leake is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA this season. Some perceive Leake as just an innings-eater. I believe he's better than that especially when pitching in Seattle. The Mariners have a dynamite speed offense that should be even better with the possibility of Nelson Cruz and Ben Gamel returning today from injuries. The A's should not have opened a road favorite here. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs has an 8.53 ERA in three appearances against Seattle, including two starts. Seattle has defeated Oakland in 12 of the last 19 meetings, winning seven of the last 10 at Safeco Field.
04-13-18	Brewers v. Mets OVER 8.5		5-6	Win	105	10 h 4 m	Show
It shouldn't be too difficult for each of these teams to produce at least four runs apiece. The wind is blowing out at 12-14 mph and the pitching matchup is Zach Davies versus Steven Matz. Davies isn't a good pitcher. He has a 5.40 ERA this season and a 4.22 career ERA against the Mets in four all-time starts. The Brewers' bullpen has become unreliable with closer Corey Knebel out with a hamstring injury. Matz has yet to live up to his potential. He has been disappointing for more than a year now. He has a 4.15 ERA in two career outtings against Milwaukee.
04-13-18	Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9		2-1	Loss	-115	10 h 5 m	Show
A lackluster pitching matchup of Kyle Freeland versus Tanner Roark on a warm, breezy day in Washington should produce double-digit runs given the quality of each team's offense. Freeland is a decent day pitcher at home. This is a night game in Washington. So expect bad things from Freeland, who has a 5.56 ERA and been stung for four home runs in two starts. Freeland has a 4.82 career road ERA in 13 away starts. Roark is a bottom of the rotation type starter who doesn't miss many bats. He has a 4.50 ERA this season and a 4.91 career ERA in three appearances against the Rockies, including two starts. Hitters should get a boost with the wind blowing out at 17 mph.
04-12-18	Cardinals -142 v. Reds		13-4	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
Cardinals minus $1.45 at Reds Early money has steamed up the Cardinals and I can understand why. It's the right move as the Reds are as bad as ever under Bryan Price and Michael Wacha has owned Cincinnati. The Reds are on their way to a fourth straight 90-loss season - if not 100 losses - with the worst record in the majors at 2-9. Price is dead man walking. It's amazing the Red have stuck with him as long as they have. St. Louis is 11-1 versus the Reds in Wacha's 12 starts. Wacha has a 2.85 lifetime ERA against Cincinnat. Wacha's has a 2.20 ERA in 41 innings pitching in Cincinnati. That's really impressive considering what a strong hitter's park that Great American Ball Park is. The Cardinals' bats should come alive there especially facing Sal Romano, perhaps the worst of the Reds' weak starting pitching. Romano has a 4.59 career ERA in 18 starts and has more walks than strikeouts this season.
04-11-18	Diamondbacks -110 v. Giants	Top	7-3	Win	100	7 h 15 m	Show
I find excellent value on the Diamondbacks here. Arizona is the superior team and should have a huge starting pitching mismatch. Robbie Ray is a "B" level pitcher who is elite status when it comes to strikeouts. He's 4-1 career-wise versus the Giants with a 2.53 ERA in eight starts. This includes a 3-1 mark and 1.46 ERA in four career starts at San Francisco. , The Giants are going with untested Andrew Suarez, who only was called up due to Johnny Cueto going on the DL. The Diamondbacks have plenty of right-handed hitters who can hurt Suarez, including Paul Goldschmidt who got back on track last night.
04-10-18	A's v. Dodgers -121	Top	0-4	Win	100	12 h 19 m	Show
Both teams have started slow. In the case of the Dodgers they will get things turned around. I doubt the A's can do that because they aren't a very good team. Their starting pitching and bullpen are very unreliable. Oakland is hurt more than the Dodgers, too, by not having a DH since this game is at Dodgers Stadium. The A's outfield depth is being tested with Chad Pinder and Boog Powell going on the DL. This is a battle of lefties - Sean Manaea versus Hyun-Jin Ryu. I like Ryu when he pitches at home where historically he has been much better than on the road. Oakland has lost 21 of its last 30 interleague games. The A's have lost 78 percent of their past 65 road games, too, when going against a southpaw starter. The Dodgers are a dominant 25-10 during their last 35 interleague home games.
04-09-18	Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5	Top	2-1	Loss	-110	10 h 16 m	Show
This total is too short. Unlike many other games, this is a matchup where the weather is nice. There's also a 10-12 mph wind blowing out. Arizona has one of the best offenses in the National League. The Diamondbacks rank seventh in runs scored. They draw Derek Holland and a revamped - and largely untested - San Francisco bullpen that lacks a reliable closer. Holland struggled with the White Sox during the second half of last year going 2-5 with an 8.93 ERA during his final 12 appearances that included nine starts. He had a 4.05 spring training ERA and last pitched on March 31 so he figures to be rusty. Zack Godley is showing a lot of promise, but he's still a middle-of-the-rotation type pitcher and has a bad history against the Giants with a 7.84 lifetime ERA in four appearances versus San Francisco.
04-08-18	Mets v. Nationals UNDER 8	Top	6-5	Loss	-105	11 h 15 m	Show
Pitching, weather, home plate umpire and fair line value all make this a strong Under play. Baseball started its season too early this year. This is the Sunday night ESPN game and it's another matchup that is going to be affected by tough weather conditions with temperatures in the 40's and wind blowing in at around 12-14 mph. Matt Harvey is below-the-radar right now. He's poised for a comeback season. He held the Phillies - who just scored 20 ruins in their last game - scoreless in five innings during his first start allowing only one hit. Perhaps most impressive about that performance was that Harvey didn't have his best stuff. Tanner Roark was sharp, too, in his first start holding the Braves to one run on four hits and a walk while going seven innings. Roark has an excellent history versus the Mets with a 7-2 mark and 2.72 ERA in 17 appearances, including 11 starts. Both teams have solid bullpen depth and the pitchers will be aided by home plate umpire Mark Ripperger, who has a large strike zone.
04-08-18	Braves v. Rockies -133		4-0	Loss	-133	6 h 55 m	Show
The Braves have lost 13 of their last 16 games at Coors Field. Look for that trend to continue here in a pitching matchup of Sean Newcomb versus Kyle Freeland. Newcomb is a young power pitcher with command issues. Walking batters does not go well especially at Coors Field. Newcomb had a 1.57 WHIP last season and was wild again in his first start this season giving up five earned runs on five hits and four walks in an 8-1 loss to the Nationals this past Monday. Newcomb has a 5.91 ERA in two career starts against Colorado. Freeland is at his best during day games at Coors Field with a 6-3 mark and 2.55 ERA in those circumstances. That's the situation here. Colorado is tough at home and has the better bullpen moreso now with Wade Davis in the closer role.
04-08-18	Diamondbacks +140 v. Cardinals		4-1	Win	140	5 h 47 m	Show
Nothing against Cardinals pitcher Luke Weaver. I like him. But I have to price enforce here because this line is too high providing value for Arizona. Taijuan Walker is a good young pitcher, too, with upside. The Diamondbacks are the better team. They are off to a 6-2 start this season despite Paul Goldschmidt batting only .115.
04-07-18	Padres v. Astros -1.5		0-1	Loss	-130	10 h 37 m	Show
This is a kill spot for the Astros following their surprising 3-1 home loss to the Padres on Friday. The Astros may have the best lineup in baseball. The Padres may have the worst. Gerrit Cole had a strong Houston debut and dominated the Padres when he was in the NL going 4-2 with a 1.96 ERA in six career starts versus them. Padres starter Bryan Mitchell has some upside, but he's not ready for the majors yet. He had a rough season debut and now draws the Astros on the road. San Diego's best relievers carry a high fatigue rating. This isn't going to be pretty.
04-07-18	Cubs -149 v. Brewers	Top	5-2	Win	100	7 h 33 m	Show
Minus closer Corey Knebel and probably their best all-around player, outfielder ChristianYelich, the Brewers upset the Cubs, 5-4, on Friday scoring a run in the ninth inning to win it. Kudos to the Brewers, but I don't see them repeating that feat. Their lineup isn't as good as the Cubs even if Anthony Rizzo has to sit out a second straight game. The pitching matchup of Yu Darvish against Zach Davies and the bullpens also favor Chicago. I want the Cubs going for me here off their irritating loss.
04-06-18	A's v. Angels OVER 9		9-13	Win	105	11 h 32 m	Show
This total should be double-digits given a starting pitching matchup of Daniel Gossett versus Parker Bridwell. Gossett is one of the worst starters in the league. Opponents batted .306 against him last season. Gossett started off poorly this season giving up four runs on six hits to the Angels in six innings. Now the Angels get another look at Gossett just a week later. The A's are a much more dangerous offensive team away from spacious Oakland Coliseum. They draw Bridwell, who they shelled twice when they faced him last season. Bridwell was ticketed for the minors. He's only up pitching in this game because Matt Shoemaker suffered a strained right forearm and had to go on the DL. These teams have a history of going Over with the high side cashing seven of the past nine times. The Over is 22-7-1 during the past 30 times they've met in LA.
04-06-18	Cubs -138 v. Brewers		4-5	Loss	-138	9 h 57 m	Show
Not only do the Cubs have a monster pitching edge, but they catch the Brewerrs likely without two of its best players. Closer Corey Knebel definitely is out for Milwaukee after suffering a hamstring injury on Thursday and Christian Yelich, the Brewers' top all-around player, is likely out, too, as he deals with an oblique injury. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is one of the most depenable starters in baseball. His career ERA of 2.93 is second only to Clayton Kershaw among active pitchers with 75 or more starts. Hendricks has dominated the Brewers at Miller Park, too, with a 4-1 career mark and 2.31 ERA there. Brandon Woodruff will be making just his seventh big league start. Milwaukee is 0-5 in Woodruff's home starts. Woodruff has some potential, but remains a work-in-progress and could get moved to the bullpen depending on how things play out with Knebel's injury.
04-05-18	Diamondbacks v. Cardinals OVER 7.5		3-1	Loss	-115	7 h 55 m	Show
Arizona has some outstanding hitters. The Diamondbacks are fifth in runs. St. Louis is underrated offensively. The Cardinals rank No. 2 in homers. The Cardinals have power from top to bottom as evidenced by eight different players hitting at least one home run this season. The pitching matchup is Robbie Ray versus Adam Wainwright. Ray is off a bad first outing giving up six earned runs in five innings, including three homers, against the Rockies. Ray has a 6.52 ERA in three lifetime starts against the Cardinals. Ray is being priced like an elite pitcher with this low total. He's not. Ray is a big strikeout pitcher, but he's not "A" level. Wainwright is getting the start as more of a ceremonial gesture since this is the Cardinals' first home game of the season. The 36-year-old likely is washed-up. He had a 5.11 earned run average and 1.50 WHIP last season. The weather is good for the hitters with temperatures in the mid-to-high 50's and wind blowing out to left at 12-14, which is particularly bad news for Ray being a lefty.
04-04-18	Dodgers -118 v. Diamondbacks	Top	0-3	Loss	-118	7 h 53 m	Show
I like the Dodgers to salvage the final game of this series against the Diamondbacks after losing with Clayton Kershaw last night. Arizona suffered a key loss in that game, though, with third baseman Jake Lamb suffering a shoulder injury. I'm a fan of Dodgers starter Alex Wood. Not so with Arizona starter Patrick Corbin. Wood was dominant last season going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA holding opposing batters to a .217 average. Wood opened this season in great style permitting only one hit in eight scorelessinnings against the Giants this past Friday. He was 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts versus Arizona last season with 23 strikeouts in 21 innings. Corbin has shown flashes, but never really has proven he can be trusted. The southpaw has struggled versus the Dodgers with a 3-9 lifetime mark and 4.42 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. He had a 5.06 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers last season. LA is 9-3 in Wood's past 12 away outings and has won 14 of the past 18 times when drawing a lefty starter on the road.
04-03-18	Indians +129 v. Angels		2-13	Loss	-100	13 h 4 m	Show
The Indians have beaten the Angels 16 of the past 17 times, including the last 12. I'm going to ride that streak especially since the Indians are underdogs. The oddsmaker is putting too much stock in Garrett Richards, who remains on the comeback trail. Richards has made just 12 starts the past two seasons due to injuries. Richards wasn't sharp in his opener against the A's, a much inferior team compared to the Indians. Richards has a 4.40 career ERA against the Indians in 14 1/3 innings. Cleveland may be the best team in baseball. The Indians are going with Josh Tomlin, who draws very little respect. Tomlin, though, doesn't walk batters and is plus 11 wins during his career with the Indians. He's not sexy, but he is reliable. That's all the Indians need since they possess the much stronger bullpen.
04-03-18	Cardinals v. Brewers -120	Top	4-5	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
The price is right to back the Brewers, who have made themselves a strong playoff contender. Milwaukee is home and has its best starting pitcher going, Chase Anderson. Anderson still is a bit below the radar. He's a late bloomer who broke through last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. This includes a 2-0 mark and 3.04 ERA in four starts versus the Cardinals. Anderson was sharp against the Padres in his first start this season throwing six scoreless innings with six strikeouts and only one hit allowed. The Cardinals are countering with righty Jack Flaherty, their No. 5 starter who soon could be departing back to the minors when Adam Wainwright is ready to pitch. Flaherty likely needs more seasoning. He had a 4.50 ERA in five spring training outings. The Brewers got a look at him late last season getting to Flaherty for four fours on five hits in five innings on Oct. 1. The Brewers are 13-5 in their last 18 games versus righty starters going back to last season.
04-02-18	Indians -113 v. Angels		6-0	Win	100	13 h 2 m	Show
It's no secret why the Indians have defeated the Angels 11 times in a row and 15 of the last 16. The Indians almost always have the superior pitcher going, have a stronger offense and the better bullpen. That's the case again in this matchup where the price is low enough to get involved with Cleveland. I like to target promising pitchers with upside who are below the radar where you don't have to pay an unfair price to back them. Mike Clevinger fits that description. Clevinger was outstanding on the road last season going 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA. He pitches with extra motivation against the Angels, the team where he spent his first three years after being drafted in 2011. Clevinger came on very strong at the end of last season posting a sub-1.00 ERA during his last 27 1/3 innings. The Angels' closer situation is unsettled and they have JC Ramirez starting. Ramirez is a borderline starter who doesn't have Clevinger's skill and talent set. Ramirez is on the comeback trail from an elbow injury that cost him the final six weeks of last year. He had a 5.40 ERA during spring training.
04-02-18	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +103	Top	7-8	Win	103	13 h 30 m	Show
Fear not the Dodgers when they play the Diamondbacks during the regular season. Arizona has won the last six times and the games haven't been close with the Diamondbacks outscoring LA by 27 runs during this span. I see the Diamondbacks making it seven straight regular season wins against the Dodgers today in a pitching matchup of lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Taijuan Walker. Ryu is the Dodgers' No. 5 starter, who is much more effective whe pitching at Dodger Stadium. LA has lost in 11 of his last 15 road starts. Arizona is one of the better teams in the NL. Ryu is 1-10 during his last 11 road outings versus above .500 teams. The Diamondbacks, with Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Polllock, are very tough against southpaws. Arizona was 25-17 versus lefties last season and already 1-0 this year. The Diamondbacks drew Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson two games ago and smashed him for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings. Walker not only is a decent pitcher, but he is a breakout candidate having not reached his full potential yet. He posted a 3.32 ERA during the second half last season and was 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three regular season starts against the Dodgers last year. Ryu was 0-1 in two starts against Arizona last season. He allowed 19 baserunners in 10 innings and surrendered three homers during his lone Chase Field appearance last year. The Diamondbacks were idle on Sunday while the Dodgers had to play in the Sunday night game. So the scheduling dynamics are on Arizona's side.
04-01-18	Cardinals -135 v. Mets		5-1	Win	100	4 h 56 m	Show
It's just the start of the season, but already the Cardinals are frustrated losing their first two games to the Mets. St. Louis is the better team and the Cardinals have the superior starting pitcher going here. So I see them avoiding a sweep. Luke Weaver showed a lot of promise last season and he was impressive during spring training allowing only one run in 16 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts while holding batters to a .113 average. The Mets have never faced Weaver giving him the element of surprise. The Cardinals go from seeing Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom to facing Steven Matz here. Matz wasn't healthy last season posting a 2-7 mark and 6.08 ERA in 13 starts. Matz is supposed to be past his elbow injuries, but he wasn't sharp in spring training with a 6.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Matz went against the Cardinals once last season and allowed five runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings on July 9.
03-30-18	Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins	Top	1-2	Loss	-130	11 h 57 m	Show
The Marlins aren't just bad. They are bad enough to be in the argument of being the worst team in the decade. The oddsmaker knows this. That's why the price is so high to fade the Marlins. The best and safest way to protect the bankroll while still going against the Marlins is backing the Cubs on the run line. Kyle Hendricks is one of the most reliable starters in baseball. He allowed one or fewer runs in eight of his last 16 starts in 2017. His career ERA is 2.94. The Marlins gutted their offense. The Cubs should do enormous damage against Caleb Smith. The rookie lefty is a fill-in for injured Dan Straily. Nothing indicates Smith is ready to pitch in the majors especially facing such a challenging lineup that has tremendous right-handed power. The Cubs were 21-14 versus lefty starters last season. They toyed with the Marlins on Thursday before putting them away, 8-4. It should be the same story today with the Cubs easily winning by multiple runs.
03-29-18	Yankees v. Blue Jays +140		6-1	Loss	-100	4 h 51 m	Show
The Yankees are going to be overpriced a lot this season especially early with all the hype surrounding them. Toronto is just the opposite. The Blue Jays are healthy and underrated. That makes them dangerous. This price is too high. The Yankees usually struggle in Toronto losing in 14 of their last 20 visits. The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus J.A. Happ. Severino is a potential ace, but he has a poor track record against Toronto giving up seven runs on 14 hits in 12 2/3 innings against them. On the flip side is Happ having excellent success versus the Yankees going 8-2 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Happ finished 4-1 in his last five starts last season giving up just seven earned runs during this five-game span.
03-29-18	Cardinals v. Mets OVER 6.5	Top	4-9	Win	100	5 h 29 m	Show
Much has to go right for there to be fewer than seven runs scored in a major league game. There are three elements at play here and two of the three point to a higher-scoring game than perceived. The starting pitching matchup does favor the Under with Carols Martinez facing Noah Syndergaard. These are elite pitchers although Martinez was more in the good than great category last season. But even if these aces are on their game - which is asking a lot since this is the earliest start date in baseball history excluding international games - they aren't going to get stretched out. The bullpens will be taking over at some point, probably earlier than expected, and neither is good. Both teams are still searching for their sure-fire closer. The Cardinals have a strong offense. The Mets' offense is underrated when Yoenis Cespedes is healthy, which he is now.
10-31-17	Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8	Top	1-3	Win	100	16 h 10 m	Show
After the Astros' 13-12 victory on Sunday in Game 5 you would think the total might be set in the double-digit range for today's World Series Game 6. It's not. There are good reasons for that. The past three games were played at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park with a DH. The scene now shifts to pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium where unlike the first two games of the series when temperatures were a sizzling 103, the weather is going to be much different. The forecast is for 65 degrees. This is a cool air, too, and much different than these teams were used to when playing the first two games at Dodger Stadium. It's going to be an adjustment for the batters. I also like both starting pitchers very much. Justin Verlander is 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his 10 appearances with the Astros. The guy's a pro and potential Hall of Famer. I see him getting the job done. Rich Hill is one of the nastiest lefty strikeout artists in baseball when healthy. He's healthy now. Hill held the Astros to one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in four innings during Game 2. He only threw 60 pitches yet was pulled by manager Dave Roberts. That was one of the biggest mistakes of the series - and Roberts knows it. Roberts is going to let Hill pitch deep into the game provided Hill is pitching well. I believe Hill will be dominant. Both bullpens have been battered. A day off, a drastic change of scenery and no DH will help the pitching. But this is going to come down to Verlander versus Hill. I like and trust both of these pitchers especially given the circumstances. The overmanaging should stop here. Just let these two studs go and the chances are good we'll have a 3-2 or 4-3 final score.
10-27-17	Dodgers +124 v. Astros		3-5	Loss	-100	22 h 48 m	Show
Houston is tough at home. But I'll take this plus price with the Dodgers, who have the better starting pitcher and bullpen. LA has followed each of its last four losses with a victory. The Dodgers also are 5-1 in their last six road games. The Dodgers picked up Yu Darvish for just such a spot here. Darvish has come through when the Dodgers have needed him most giving up only two runs during his last five starts spanning 30 2/3 inings. He's struck out 35 during this time frame while giving up a combined 19 htis and walks. Darvish knows how to pitch at Minute Maid Park with a lifetime mark of 4-1 and 2.16 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP in six career games there. Current Astros are batting just a combined .190 against Darvich. The Astros are the more powerful team, but the roof is going to be closed reducing Houston's power. Houston is pitching Lance McCullers. The Astros have lost eight of the last nine times McCullers has started.
10-24-17	Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	1-3	Loss	-135	12 h 50 m	Show
As great as he is, Clayton Kershaw does not have a good history in the postseason. He's 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 playoff appearances, including 17 starts. If minus 1 1/2 runs were attached to Kershaw's last 11 starts the Dodgers would be just 6-5 in those games. Kershaw is going against a Houston offense that led the majors in runs, batting average and slugging percentage. The Astros also hit the second-most home runs. This is remarkable in that they had the fewest strikeouts of any team. The Astros also can run finishing eighth in stolen bases with 88. Jose Altuve gives Houston the best player in baseball. The Dodgers are in a vulnerable spot in this Game 1. LA hasn't played in four days. Batting practice can't make up for that long delay. The Astros have had two days off. Their batteries are still charged up after they got past the Yankees in seven games by winning Games 6 and 7. The Dodgers were fortunate to have met the Diamondbacks, who lacked playoff experience, and sleepwalking Cubs in the postseason. The Astros are a clear step up, winner of 101 games and with two studs heading their rotation, Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander. Keuchel goes here. The AL Cy Young Award winner of two seasons ago, has a lifetime playoff mark of 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six career postseason appearances, including five starts. Houston is 11-3 the past 14 times Keuchel has pitched on the road. Given Kershaw's poor postseason history, the starting pitching matchup is far closer than this price indicates. The Astros have the better offense and are in good spot with the Dodgers possibly being rusty and overconfident after dominating the NL playoffs. I do give the Dodgers a checkmark for their late-inning relief pitching. So I believe the best way to play this game is taking the Astros on the run line especially in what's being projected as a low-scoring game.
10-20-17	Yankees v. Astros -131	Top	1-7	Win	100	41 h 44 m	Show
The Yankees have been dominant at home going 19-3 in their last 22 games at Yankee Stadium. The Astros have been equally dominant at home winning 15 of their last 17 games at Minute Maid Park. This includes a 4-0 playoff record. This game is at Minute Maid Parik. The Yankees are 1-4 in their five playoff road games. Home field certainly means a lot here. But there are other factors why I'm so strong on the Astros in this game. The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus Justin Verlander. Severino had a breakout season reaching his high ceiling. But he's largely untested in playoff, pressure games. Verlander is a proven pro. The former AL MVP is 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA all-time in postseason action. Verlander has been the absolute nuts since joining the Astros going 8-0 in eight sarts. He's been at his finest during the playoffs, too, going 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA. The Astros finished the regular season with the No. 1 offense in the majors. They are batting a puny .147 in this ALCS. Masahiro Tanaka has been a huge problem for them. Tanaka has held the Astros to two runs in 13 innings. But the Astros aren't facing Tanaka here. The Yankees not only lose their huge home field advantage, but also their momentum with Thursday's travel day. This also gives the Astros a much needed day to regroup. If the Yankees do indeed beat Verlander and the Astros here in Houston, they are most deserving of the American League pennant. I don't see that happening, though, in this Game 6.
10-16-17	Astros v. Yankees OVER 8.5		1-8	Win	100	14 h 38 m	Show
The Astros and the Yankees were the two-highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. They are due to break out after a pair of 2-1 Houston wins during the first two games of this series. The pitching matchup pits Charlie Morton against CC Sabathia. Morton is a middle-of-the-road caliber starter while Sabathia is well past his prime at 37. Morton has a 5.68 ERA in two starts versus the Yankees. Sabathia has a 5.85 career ERA in seven ALCS starts. The switch to Yankee Stadium is huge for the Yankees. They posted an .817 regular season OPS at home compared to .755 away. Joe Girardi also is sending a good message to his young hitting stars by not tinkering with the lineup. He knows the Yankees have the talent to bust out especially with a drop of Morton from past Cy Young Award winners Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander, who handcuffed the Yankees in the first two games of the series.
10-16-17	Astros v. Yankees -124	Top	1-8	Win	100	14 h 37 m	Show
After facing past Cy Young Award winners Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander, the Yankees get to square off now against mediocre Charlie Morton. Down 2-0 in this ALCS, the Yankees' season is on the line. The good news is they are home now. The Yankees went 51-30 at home during the regular season. They then went 2-0 versus the Indians at Yankee Stadium after losing the first two road games of that playoff series. Houston is a bit fat and happy after squeezing out a pair of one-run victories at home. The Astros went an amazing 80-37 versus right-handed starters, but were just 21-24 against southpaw starters. The Yankees are starting lefty CC Sabathia. The 37-year-old Sabathia has been solid in the playoffs knowing he's only going to go around five innings. So he doesn't have to hold anything back. Joe Girardi is going to come in with his best relievers knowing this is a do-or-die spot for the Yankees.
10-11-17	Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5	Top	5-2	Win	100	13 h 2 m	Show
CC Sabathia hooked up with Corey Kluber in Game 2 of this series. The Indians won that won, 9-8, in 13 innings. Sabathia did his part, though, going 5 1/3 innings allowing two earned runs on three hits. Sabathia is quite familar with Cleveland having spent the first 7 1/2 years of his career with the Indians. He's a big game pitcher and he's backed by a strong bullpen that is rested after being idle Tuesday. The under has cashed in nine of Sabathia's last 12 road starts. Kluber is coming off his worst start in that 9-8 win. I have no doubt, though, that Kluber will pitch a strong game here. He's the best pitcher in the American League and has a strong history against the Yankees. Even with his bad start in Game 2, Kluber still has held the current Yankees lineup to a .184 batting average. Aaron Judge is ice cold. He's 1-for-15 in the series with 12 strikeouts. The Yankees have a lot of young hitters like Judge who have not had this kind of Game 5 playoff pressure. Kluber is going on his normal four days rest. The under is 10-3-1 the last 14 times Kluber has pitched on four days rest. Kluber also is backed by a very strong bullpen. Weather factors favor a low-scoring game, too. Temperatures will be in the low 60s and the wind will be blowing in at around 15 mph.
10-08-17	Indians -114 v. Yankees	Top	0-1	Loss	-114	14 h 8 m	Show
Masahiro Tanaka is inconsistent. You're never sure what you're going to get from him. That's not the case with Carlos Carrasco. He gets overshawdowed by teammate Corey Kluber, but Carrasco is an elite pitcher. Carrasco has pitched brilliantly on the road going 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA in 17 road outings. He's in tremendous form, too, going 6-0 with a 0.85 ERA in his last six starts. The Indians are the hottest team in baseball winning 44 of their last 52 games. The price is right to back them against what has to be a demoralized Yankees squad. Joe Girardi picked a bad time to turn in maybe the worst managed game of the season this past Friday. The Yankees blew a five-run lead in what turned out to be a 9-8 loss in 13 innings. Girardi not only lifted CC Sabathia too early, but failed to challenge an obvious miscall by the umpire that Lonnie Chisenhall had been hit by a pitch. In the process, Girardi put his bullpen in a serious fatigue spot for this game with Dellin Betances likely unavailable. Those bad decisions by Girardi clearly cost the Yankees the game.
10-08-17	Astros -135 v. Red Sox		3-10	Loss	-135	9 h 11 m	Show
You can pull the fork out now. The Red Sox are cooked. The Red Sox have injuries and I don't trust their frame of mind. The Astros have destroyed Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz in winning the first two games of this playoff series. Don't look for Doug Fister to save Boston. He's given up 17 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 16 2/3 innings allowing 24 hits and seven walks. The Astros are batting .343 in the series and have smashed six homers. Houston starter Brad Peacock has given up two earned runs or less during his past seven starts. Houston is 12-4 in Peacock's last 16 road starts. Boston is 1-4 in Fister's last five starts at Fenway Park.
10-08-17	Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5		3-10	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
I see these teams reaching double-digits in scoring with the series coming to hitter-friendly Fenway Park where the weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing out to left and center at a crisp 18 mph. The Astros had the best offense in baseball during the regular season and they've stayed hot during the first two games of the series batting .343 with six homers. Houston lit up Chris Sale and Drew Pomerantz. The Astros should destroy Doug Fister, an over-the-hill veteran turned journeyman who has surrendered 17 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 16 2/3 innings. Boston could do its share of damage against Brad Peacock, who is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA lifetime versus the Red Sox. Peacock has an 8.53 ERA in 12 2/3 innings pitching at Fenway Park. Mookie Betts is expected to play for the Red Sox.
10-06-17	Cubs v. Nationals OVER 7	Top	3-0	Loss	-120	16 h 4 m	Show
Both pitchers, Kyle Hendricks and Stephen Strasburg, pitched well down the stretch. But postseason baseball is different and 7 is too low of a total considering the caliber of these offenses. The Cubs scored the fourth-most runs in the majors this year. The Nationals were fifth in runs scored. Both teams are healthy with their key bats in place. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner have had enough bats to get the rust off.

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