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MLB Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
07-03-21	Red Sox v. A's -127		6-7	Win	100	12 h 11 m	Show
Whether it's physical, mental or both, some pitchers are having trouble dealing with MLB's crackdown on foreign substances. Garrett Richards is one such pitcher. Richards is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA during his last seven starts. He is 2-3 lifetime when pitching at Oakland with a 4.35 ERA during a span of 51 2/3 innings. The A's are tough at home and rate a pitching edge with Cole Irvin, who is coming off an unbeaten June and just beat the Giants this past Sunday. Irvin hurled eight shutout innings against the Giants while giving up just three hits and two walks with eight strikeouts. Oakland has won seven of its last 10 home games. The Red Sox are hot, but still have lost four of their last seven road games.
07-02-21	Red Sox v. A's -101		3-2	Loss	-101	17 h 10 m	Show
History is littered with strong AL East teams on a roll flying cross-country after a successful homestand only to encounter trouble in Oakland. This should be another example. Boston is riding a seven-game win streak. All of those victories came at Fenway Park. Now the Red Sox visit Oakland, a place where they have lost 70 percent of the time during their past 56 games there. It's Boston's first road game in eight days. The Red Sox are 2-4 in their past six away contests. Oakland is tough at home again this season. The A's have won seven of their past nine home games and have a pitching edge with Eduardo Rodriguez facing Frankie Montas. Rodriguez has a 5.83 ERA in 15 starts. His career mark versus the A's is 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA. Montas has been solid in all but four of his 16 starts, holding opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer 12 times. He has a 1.13 career ERA versus the Red Sox in three appearances.
07-02-21	Twins v. Royals UNDER 10.5		4-7	Loss	-120	16 h 44 m	Show
I know, a pitching matchup of J.A. Happ versus Brady Singer inspires little confidence that a low-scoring game will be taking place. But because of that the oddsmaker has set too high of a total on this Twins-Royals matchup. I don't see these teams combining for double-digits runs here. Happ pitched well in his last start holding the Indians to two runs in six innings. Cleveland isn't a strong offensive team, but neither is Kansas City. The Royals rank 24th in runs and 25th in homers. They have scored 2 or fewer runs in four of their last six games. Kansas City is missing a pair of key offensive cogs in Andrew Benintendi and Adalberto Mondesi. Singer is a promising starter, who is going through growing pains with a 3-6 record and 4.70 ERA. Singer has been respectable in two starts versus Minnesota this season giving up three runs in 7 2/3 innings. The Over has won just three out of the last 15 times the teams have met in Kansas City.
07-01-21	Giants -136 v. Diamondbacks		3-5	Loss	-136	13 h 47 m	Show
Giants minus $1.36 at Diamondbacks The Giants haven't lost four in a row all season. I certainly don't see it happening here. Despite their three-game losing streak, the Giants have the best record in baseball at 50-29. Arizona has the worst mark at 22-60. The Diamondbacks are a mind-boggling 2-24 in their last 26 games! San Francisco has dominated Arizona winning the past 10 meetings. The pitching matchup is Johnny Cueto versus Merrill Kelly. Cueto is 6-3 with a 3.63 ERA. Kelly is 4-7 with a 4.73 ERA. The Giants hold a big bullpen edge. San Francisco has hit the second-most homers in the majors. The Diamondbacks have hit the second-fewest homers in the majors. Arizona also is down two of its best players with Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly injured.
07-01-21	Cardinals v. Rockies +110		2-5	Win	110	13 h 44 m	Show
Fade the Rockies on the road, play on them at home. As I wrote yesterday in picking Colorado to beat the Pirates, there is no team more Jekyll/Hyde with their home/road splits than the Rockies. Losers of 31 of 37 road games, the Rockies are 28-16 at Coors Field while leading the league in home batting average. So I'm interested whenever I see Colorado as a home 'dog, which is the case here. Maybe it's name recognition why the oddsmaker opened St. Louis the favorite since the pitching matchup is Adam Wainwright versus Antonio Senzatela. Wainwright isn't nearly the star he once was and he's pitched poorly on the road with a 2-2 record, 6.31 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to use their star closer either as Alex Reyes has thrown 47 pitches during the last two days. St. Louis has lost nine of its last 10 road contests. The Rockies are 12-2 during their last 14 home games going against a righty starter. Senzatela is that rare pitcher who has fared better at Coors Field where he has a 3.91 ERA on the season. He's facing a St. Louis lineup that has scored 3 or fewer runs in seven of its last 10 games. St. Louis also is 6-15 in its last 21 games versus a righty starter.
06-30-21	Twins v. White Sox -123		3-13	Win	100	14 h 34 m	Show
The price is low enough to back the superior White Sox at home against the highly disappointing Twins. Chicago is 29-14 at home. The pitching matchup is rookie Bailey Ober versus Dylan Cease. Ober has made five big league starts. He gave up four runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Reds during his previous start eight days ago. Ober doesn't pitch deep into games and is prone to giving up homers. He's gone five innings just once and has surrendered four homers in 21 1/3 innings. He has a 4.64 ERA. The White Sox faced him May 18 and got to him for four runs in four innings. The White Sox, who rank in the top nine in runs and batting average, hit two homers of Ober. Cease is enjoying a breakout season in this his third year. He's 6-3 with a 3.81 ERA. His metrics are improved across the board.
06-30-21	Mets v. Braves -143		2-20	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
Because of a slow start and being injured, Max Fried is undervalued. Fried, though, was pitching well before going on the injured list. He's set to start for Atlanta today. Fried is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 2.73 ERA in 14 appearances against the Mets spanning 56 innings. Current Mets are batting .178 against Fried lifetime. Fried started turning his season around during the middle of last month. He's had quality outings in six of his last seven starts. The Mets are going with David Peterson, who is 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA. Peterson is 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA during his last three road starts.
06-29-21	Twins v. White Sox -129		6-7	Win	100	15 h 3 m	Show
Minnesota has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball with a 33-43 mark. They are the third-largest money burner based on closing lines. The White Sox are 28-14 at home. They have a pitching edge and caught a break with Monday's postponement. Now the White Sox should have Jose Abreu back in the lineup while star closer Liam Hendriks will be available after throwing a combined 29 pitches in appearances this past weekend. The starting pitching matchup is Kenta Maeda versus Lucas Giolito. Maeda has a 4.85 ERA, but has been pitching better lately. Still, he's nowhere near his Cy Young Award runner-up form of last season. Maeda was supposed to start three days ago, but two rainouts have pushed back his start all the way until today. So his routine could be off. Giolito faced the Twins once this season. That came on May 19 and he was dominant. Giolito held the Twins to one run on two hits in eight innings with 11 strikeouts and three walks. Giolito has a 3.35 home ERA this year. The White Sox have defeated the Twins in six of the past seven meetings.
06-27-21	Yankees -150 v. Red Sox	Top	2-9	Loss	-150	10 h 2 m	Show
Divisions aren't determined by a single June gme. But this may be the Yankees' most important game of the season. New York is 0-5 versus Boston this season, outplayed in every game. The Yankees trail the Rays by six games in the AL East. The Yankees need to beat Boston and they're in great position to accomplish that with a pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole against Eduardo Rodriguez. It's a mid-size lay price, but I find value since I would make the Yankees nearly a 2-to-1 favorite to win this game. Cole continues to live up to his huge contract and superstar status. He's 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. His 123 strikeouts through 15 starts are the most in Yankee history of any pitcher's first 15 starts. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is enduring his worst season. He has a 6.07 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. I don't know if he's fully healthy. He hasn't been good all year and his current form is even worse than his season numbers - an 0-4 record and 7.94 ERA during his last eight games. Opponents are batting .325 against him during this span.
06-26-21	Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5		10-1	Loss	-124	16 h 29 m	Show
This is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. It's such a mismatch I feel very confident laying 1 1/2 runs with the Padres at home. San Diego is that good with eight straight victories and arguably the best and most exciting player in the game, Fernando Tatis. Arizona is that bad with 24 straight road losses and 1-20 record during its past 21 overall games. The Diamondbacks are 3-34 in their last 37 games. The pitching matchup and bullpen greatly favor the Padres, too. Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has a 5.06 ERA. Padres starter Dinelson Lamet has a 2.81 ERA and is rounding into shape pitching deeper into games. He has electrifying stuff.
06-25-21	Mariners v. White Sox -1.5		9-3	Loss	-100	10 h 57 m	Show
Seattle southpaw Yusei Kikuchi is pitching better than he ever has in the majors with a 4-3 record and 3.46 ERA. However, he can't compare to White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon, who is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA. Rodon has a 1.42 ERA in three starts this month and has a 1.50 ERA in four career starts versus Seattle. Kikuchi also has to face a team that mashes lefties. The White Sox rank either second or third against lefties in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 30-6 versus southpaw since the start of last season. Kikuchi has a lifetime 11.05 ERA against the White Sox in two starts. Seattle is 15-21 on the road. They rank second-to-last in batting average and also second-to-last in hitting when going against lefties. The White Sox have been an elite home team going 27-12, including 7-3 this month at Guaranteed Rate Field.
06-25-21	Indians +119 v. Twins		7-8	Loss	-100	10 h 56 m	Show
The 31-43 Twins have been one of the biggest disappointments this season not only to their fans, but also to their bettors. They are the third-biggest money burner in MLB. So I don't get them being favored in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Danny Coulombe. Quantrill has pitched better than his 0-2 record with a 2.74 ERA. He blanked the Pirates for five innings in his last start giving up three hits this past Saturday. The best thing you can say about Coulombe is he's not Randy Dobnak, who was scheduled to start. Dobnak, who is 1-6 with a 7.83 ERA, was scratched because of injury. So Coulombe will be making his first major league start. He's been around the majors since 2014. The Twins are his third team. He's thrown only 2 2/3 innings this season giving up two hits and three walks. The Indians hold a major bullpen advantage. Cleveland has won seven of the last nine times it has been a road 'dog.
06-23-21	Rockies v. Mariners +103		5-2	Loss	-100	11 h 46 m	Show
Terrors at Coors Field, meek as a lamb on the road. That's your 2021 Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are 5-28 away this season. It's a record they've earned with their league-low .199 road batting average. Colorado is averaging 1.8 runs during its last 17 road contests. The Rockies needed to be faded on the road - and that's what I'm doing here in a pitching matchup of German Marquez versus Justus Sheffield. It looks like Colorado has a pitching edge - on the surface. Marquez has 4.26 ERA. Sheffiled's ERA is 5.65. Marquez, however, is that rare pitcher who does better at Coors Field. He's 0-5 on the road with a 5.74 ERA. Sheffield is better at home where he's 4-2 with a 4.96 ERA. Sheffield faced the Rockies once before. That was last year and he beat them by throwing six scoreless innings.
06-23-21	Cardinals -120 v. Tigers	Top	2-6	Loss	-120	8 h 13 m	Show
Injuries to Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull have forced the Tigers to call up Matt Manning. He's Detroit's top pitching prospect. However, Manning's time hasn't come yet. He's being rushed to the lineup too far ahead of schedule. Manning still was learning the ropes in Triple-A where he had an 8.07 ERA for Toledo while surrendering 11 homers in 32 1/3 innings. This will be Manning's second big league start. He pitched five innings against the Angels this past Thursday giving up two runs on four hits in five innings. Now the Cardinals have a first-hand scouting report on Manning. They know for instance that he threw 70 percent fastball against the Angels. It's hard to rely solely on just one pitch in the big leagues. John Gant goes for St. Louis. He has a respectable 3.50 ERA and a 2.08 lifetime ERA against the Tigers in three appearances, including one start. The Cardinals own a huge bullpen edge especially at closer with Alex Reyes, who has 17 saves and a 0.82 ERA.
06-22-21	Giants +116 v. Angels	Top	5-0	Win	116	20 h 18 m	Show
Anthony DeSclafani is underrated. Just like his team, the Giants. San Francisco has the best record in baseball. The Angels are a .500 club and without their best player, Mike Trout. DeSclafani is 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA. He's 3-0 in his past three starts with a 1.35 ERA during this time span. Angels starter Andrew Heaney has been inconsistent his entire career and he's been inconsistent against this season. Heaney has a 6.75 ERA in two career starts versus San Francisco. The more reliable pitcher is DeSclafani and the Giants are much the superior team. So I'll gladly accept a plus price with them. The Giants have won 13 of their last 17 road contests. They were idle on Monday so their bullpen is rested. The Giants have won each of the past seven times following a day off.
06-22-21	Red Sox v. Rays -110		9-5	Loss	-110	15 h 19 m	Show
First the bad news. Tampa Bay has lost six in a row. Now the good news. All of those defeats were on the road. The Rays are back home for the start of this series. Tampa Bay has won 69 percent of its last 94 games at quirky Tropicana Field. The Rays square off against Eduardo Rodriguez, who is having a terrible season with a 6.21 ERA. Opponents have reached Rodriguez for at least four runs in six of his past seven starts. Rodriguez is 1-3 lifetime versus the Rays with a 5.44 ERA. The Rays are going with the two-headed monster of Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Yarbrough. Kittredge has a 1.34 ERA and is expected to get the start. He has a 2.53 career ERA versus Boston in 15 appearances. Yarbrough, who is expected to take over during the middle innings, has a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three appearances spanning 21 1/3 innings.
06-21-21	Brewers -123 v. Diamondbacks	Top	1-5	Loss	-123	19 h 10 m	Show
If the Diamondbacks aren't on your autofade list they certainly should be especially when the lay price is manageable like this one. Arizona has lost 17 in a row! The Diamondbacks are 2-30 in their last 32 games! Shades of the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. The Brewers enter this matchup going with Brett Anderson and with a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen. Anderson has a 4.24 ERA, which is still better than Arizona starter Merrill Kelly's 5.40 ERA. Anderson is coming off a magnificent start against the Reds, a much stronger offensive team than the Diamondbacks. Anderson held the Reds to no runs in seven innings allowing only one hit, one walk and striking out nine this past Tuesday. The Diamondbacks will be missing catcher Carson Kelly, who ranked third on the team in homers and RBI's. He suffered a broken wrist against the Dodgers two days ago.
06-21-21	A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5		3-8	Loss	-110	16 h 47 m	Show
Globe Life Field is a huge pitcher's park. Given a pitching matchup of Frankie Montas versus the weak-hitting Rangers and Kyle Gibson starting for Texas, Under is the way to go in this game. Montas has proven reliable and steady. He has a 3.07 ERA during his last seven starts. He's backed by a solid A's bullpen. Gibson is enjoying his breakthrough season. He has a 2.09 ERA. He's held 11 of his 13 opponents to two runs or fewer. The Rangers' bullpen is bad, but they do have closer Ian Kennedy back from IL.
06-20-21	Brewers v. Rockies OVER 11.5		7-6	Win	100	13 h 14 m	Show
Two horrendous starting pitchers. Depleted bullpens. A hot muggy day with temperatures in the 80's. Coors Field. This combination should be enough for the Brewers and Rockies to each score at least six runs apiece. The Rockies have the highest home batting average in the majors. They get to face lefty Eric Lauer, who has a 5.18 ERA and is the Brewers' last starting pitching option. The Brewers draw Chi Chi Gonazlez, who is in the argument for worst starter. He has a 6.86 ERA in his past six starts and has surrendered 12 runs in his last 11 innings. Both bullpens have been heavily used.
06-20-21	Blue Jays -1.5 v. Orioles		7-4	Win	100	10 h 14 m	Show
There probably aren't going to be too many opportunities left to fade Matt Harvey. So I'm taking my shot laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line in a monster pitching mismatch of Hyun Jin Ryu versus Harvey. Harvey has a 12.00 ERA in his last SEVEN starts. He's allowed at least five runs in six of those outings never reaching the fifth inning. The Orioles are 12-22 at home and are 9-15 versus lefty starters. Ryu has a 3.25 day time ERA.
06-20-21	A's +120 v. Yankees	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	11 h 29 m	Show
Perhaps it's the Yankee mystique. Whatever it is, the wrong team is favored here. The A's are 44-28. That's their best start in 31 years. They are 13-3 this month and have won seven of their past eight games. The Yankees have a losing home record. They are 1-6 in their last seven home contests. Oakland is 19-10 on the road. The pitching matchup is lefty Sean Manaea versus southpaw Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefties. The A's have a higher batting average and slugging percentage versus southpaws than the Yankees. Oakland is 18-9 against lefthanders. Manaea is 6-2 with a 2.99 ERA. He has been one of the hottest pitchers with a 3.0 mark and 0.84 ERA in his last five starts. Montgomery is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He has a 4.20 ERA. His day time ERA is 7.11.
06-19-21	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9		9-3	Loss	-110	12 h 56 m	Show
The Diamondbacks have a below average offense that is made worse when they face righties. They draw one of the best righthanders in baseball, Walker Buehler, who has a 2.38 ERA. Buehler is in great form going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA during his past three starts. Arizona has scored 3 or fewer runs in seven of its last 11 games. Arizona is pitching Matt Peacock, who hasn't looked good this month. The Diamondbacks and Peacock, however, have several things going their way defensively. The Dodgers are down three of their sluggers with Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Corey Seager all out. LA has averaged only 2.8 runs in its last six games. Two more pluses for the Under is the roof being closed for this game and Doug Eddings being the home plate umpire. No other umpire has a higher strike call percentage than Eddings during the last eight years.
06-19-21	Brewers v. Rockies -109		6-5	Loss	-109	11 h 57 m	Show
Don't just look at the Rockies' 30-41 overall record. It must be broken down to home-road. Colorado is the worst road team in the majors. But at Coors Field the Rockies are highly-dangerous going 25-14 while batting a league-best .281. The Brewers know this all too well. They've dropped seven in a row to the Rockies, including the past five in Colorado. The price is right to back Colorado again as Milwaukee is not starting any of its big three. Instead, bottom of the rotation starter Adrian Houser gets the call. The Brewers are cold having dropped five consecutive games. Austin Gomber goes for the Rockies. No pitcher has been more effective at Coors Field lately than Gomber, who hasn't allowed an earned run during his last 23 1/3 innings at Coors.
06-18-21	Phillies v. Giants -126	Top	3-5	Win	100	12 h 16 m	Show
It's past time to give the Giants their due. San Francisco is 44-25, which is the best record in baseball. The Phillies are 12-25 on the road this year. The pitching matchup is Vince Velasquez, who has a 4.25 ERA, versus Johnny Cueto, who has a 4.00 ERA. Velasquez has a 12.9 percent walk rate. Cueto's walk rate is 4.8 percent. The price is fair. So I'm going to ride the Giants. San Francisco has been tremendous in this role winning 25 of the last 31 times it has been home chalk. The Phillies have lost 16 of the last 21 times playing in San Francisco. The Phillies have scored just six runs in their last three games. They are likely to get Bryce Harper back, but are down two key mid-infielders with Jean Segura joining Didi Gregorius on IL.
06-17-21	Cardinals +170 v. Braves	Top	0-4	Loss	-100	14 h 39 m	Show
Maybe the Braves should be favorites here, slight favorites. But at this price the line is outrageous. It presents tremendous value on the Cardinals. St. Louis has won three in a row. The Cardinals have allowed only five runs in their last four games. The Braves are 1-6 in their last seven games. Atlanta is a season-worst five games below .500. The pitching matchup is John Gant versus Charlie Morton. It's Morton who has the bigger name, but you can make the argument Gant has been the more effective pitcher this season. Morton has a 4.50 ERA. Gant's ERA is 3.36. Gant has been better on the road, too, where his away ERA is 2.27. Morton has a bad history against the Cardinals. He's 2-12 lifetime versus them with a 5.68 ERA in 18 starts. It has been 10 years since Morton last defeated the Cardinals. Atlanta's bullpen has been disappointing, while the Cardinals' Alex Reyes has developed into a top closer ranking fourth in saves with 17 while holding a 0.82 ERA. The Braves' bullpen carries a high fatigue ranking also. Atlanta has permitted 10 runs in each of the past two days. Braves relievers have logged 11 2/3 innings during these last two days. St. Louis has enjoyed good success against the Braves in Atlanta winning 11 of its past 15 visits.
06-16-21	Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9.5	Top	6-5	Loss	-107	6 h 54 m	Show
Neither the Tigers nor the Royals are scoring much. Detroit is averaging 2.7 runs in its last four games if you discount its 10-run performance two games ago. The Royals are averaging 2.6 runs during their last 10 games. They've been held to three runs or fewer in nine of those 10 games. The pitching matchup is Tarik Skubal versus Brady Singer. Skubal has a 4.35 ERA while Singer's ERA is 4.85. Hence this high total. But are Skubal and Singer really bad pitchers? Skubal has a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. He's struck out 43 during his past five starts spanning 27 innings. His ERA in day time games is 2.05. Singer has a strong history versus the Tigers with a 2.86 ERA in six career starts. Singer has 20 strikeouts in his past three starts and is coming off a quality start against the A's. Marvin Hudson is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 17-13 the past two years Hudson has been behind the plate for 57 percent. This is an early start get-away game so some starters could be rested.
06-15-21	Angels v. A's -120	Top	4-6	Win	100	16 h 54 m	Show
Nothing against southpaw Andrew Heaney, who has been pitching well. But I want the A's going for me here and this price allows me to get involved. Oakland has won 10 of its last 12 games. The A's are off to their best start in seven years going 41-27. Oakland is 44-21 the past 65 times facing a lefty starter at home. Like many teams, the Angels have problems when playing at Oakland losing 11 of the past 15 times there. A's starter Frankie Montas has the same ERA as Heaney at 4.37 with four more strikeouts. Montas has a 2.65 ERA during his last three starts. The Angels are down superstar Mike Trout and also could be without third baseman Anthony Rendon, who suffered a triceps injury last night.
06-14-21	Reds +139 v. Brewers		10-2	Win	139	15 h 56 m	Show
Cincinnati starter Vladimir Gutierrez is a promising rookie with a 2-1 record, 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Milwaukee starter lefty Eric Lauer is a journeyman, who is the Brewers' No. 6 starter. He's 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Gutierrez beat the Brewers, 7-3, this past Wednesday with a quality start giving up two earned runs in seven innings with seven strikeouts. That was Milwaukee's lone loss in its last 10 games. The Reds, though, also have been hot winning eight of their last 10. The Brewers padded their hot streak by beating the Pirates and Diamondbacks a combined seven times during their last 10 games. Cincinnati is 6-3 on the season versus lefty starters. The Brewers have the superior defense and bullpen. The Reds, however, own a huge offensive edge and the better starting pitcher. So at this plus price, I'll go with the Reds.
06-13-21	Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5		3-5	Win	100	8 h 50 m	Show
The Rangers handed the Dodgers their worst loss of the season last night beating them, 12-1. I see the Dodgers getting big revenge here in a pitching matchup of Walker Buehler versus Dane Dunning. Buehler could break the Dodgers record for longest unbeaten streak if he doesn't lose here, having not lost during his last 21 starts. Buehler is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA. He's coming off a two-hitter against the Pirates this past Tuesday where he held Pittsburgh scoreless for seven innings. The Pirates are batting .226. The Rangers are hitting .229. Dunning is 2-4 with a 4.26 ERA. He's backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Until stunning the Dodgers on Saturday night, the Rangers had lost 16 straight road games. It was their first win at a National League park in 12 games. The Rangers have lost by multiple runs during each of their past six defeats. LA has far better depth than Texas. This could be telling since teams often use Sunday to play more of their reserves.
06-13-21	Astros v. Twins UNDER 9.5		14-3	Loss	-100	6 h 1 m	Show
No day of the week is better for baseball Unders than Sunday. It's usually a getaway day and also the most frequent day when starters are rested. So I'm expecting to see a number of reserves from both teams. Another big factor for an Under is Framber Valdez starting for Houston. He's back in form since coming off the injured list being 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA. He has a 22-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 1/3 innings. The Twins are familiar with Valdez. He pitched five scoreless relief innings against Minnesota during the Astros' Game 1 AL wild-card series last year. Michael Pineda gets the starting call for Minnesota. He didn't have a good outing two starts ago, but posted a 2.62 ERA during his first eight starts this season.
06-11-21	Pirates v. Brewers -1.5		4-7	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
The Brewers have three of the most underrated starting pitchers in the majors. Brandon Woodruff is one of those pitchers. He has a 1.13 ERA in his last 11 starts with 87 strikeouts in his last 72 innings. Milwaukee is 11-2 in its last 13 games. The Brewers have won by more than one run during nine of their last 10 victories, so I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line with Woodruff and Milwaukee against the woeful Pirates. Pittsburgh has one decent starter, JT Brubaker, and he's not pitching today. Instead the Pirates are going with Chase De Jong, who has a 5.40 ERA and shouldn't be in a big league starting rotation. Milwaukee has scored 5 or more runs in six of its last eight games. The Pirates have lost 48 of their past 65 road games.
06-11-21	Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5	Top	2-4	Loss	-110	15 h 39 m	Show
The Orioles have the second-fewest wins in baseball. But they can hit left-handers. That's bad news for Rays southpaw Ryan Yarbrough. Baltimore leads the majors in batting average against lefties at .292. The Orioles also rank first in slugging percentage and OPS when facing left-handers. The Over has cashed the past seven times Baltimore has gone up against a lefty starter. Yarbrough is 0-2 with a 4.62 ERA when pitching at home. This is in line with his career numbers, which have been better on the road. Yarbrough has a 3.46 lifetime ERA on the road compared to 4.48 at Tropicana Field. Baltimore starter, Keegan Akin, is just the opposite. His career numbers are a 2.92 home ERA compared to a 5.57 road ERA. Only three teams average more runs per game than the Rays.
06-10-21	Brewers -113 v. Reds	Top	7-2	Win	100	4 h 48 m	Show
Freddy Peralta is having the type of season many envisioned Luis Castillo to be having. Peralta has been one of the best - and most underrated - pitchers in the National League with a 6-1 record and 2.25 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He enters today's game 12 strikeouts away from leading the league with 92 in 64 innings. Milwaukee is 9-3 in Peralta's starts this year. Castillo has been one of the most disappointing pitchers in baseball with a 2-8 record, 6.63 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. I cut him from my Rotisserie team weeks ago without even bothering to try to trade him. I just wanted him off my team. Peralta and Castillo squared off on May 23. The Brewers won, 9-4, getting to Castillo for five runs in five innings. The Brewers also rate a strong bullpen advantage. Milwaukee is 10-2 in its last 12 games. The Reds have lost eight of their last 11 home contests.
06-09-21	Mariners v. Tigers -116	Top	9-6	Loss	-116	17 h 45 m	Show
Casey Mize is here and the Mariners know it. Mize, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, has given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. He's dropping way down in class here facing the Mariners after his last two starts were against the White Sox and Yankees. The Mariners saw Mize in Seattle last month - and he dominated them. Mize held Seattle to one earned run on three hits in 7 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts. Detroit is a semi-respectable 14-15 at home. Seattle is 13-18 on the road. The Mariners had five players in their starting lineup last night batting .220 or under. Their team batting average is .208, worst in the majors. Chris Flexen pitches for Seattle. He has a 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the season. He's pitched much better at home. His road ERA is 8.10 in four starts.
06-09-21	Mets -138 v. Orioles		14-1	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
Taijuan Walker versus Matt Harvey in a monster pitching mismatch that should carry with it a much higher price than this. Walker always has been a good pitcher. He just hasn't been healthy too much. But he is now and the results are a 2.17 ERA. He carries a 2.08 during his past three starts. Harvey shouldn't be in a big-league rotation. Much is being made of Harvey pitching against his former team. But that happened back on May 12 at Citi Field. The Mets roughed Harvey up for seven runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings. Harvey carries a 3-6 record and 6.62 ERA on the season. The Orioles have been one of the worst home teams in the majors losing 20 of 31 games at Camden Yards.
06-08-21	Giants -129 v. Rangers	Top	9-4	Win	100	24 h 34 m	Show
Maybe the Giants are playing above their heads. Or maybe they are for real. All I know is San Francisco has the best record in baseball. The Rangers own the third-worst mark in the majors. Texas is 1-11 in its last 12 games. The Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games. They have won 10 of their past 11 road games. Alex Wood goes against journeyman Jordan Lyles. Wood is 5-3 with a 3.48 ERA. He is 2-0 lifetime versus the Rangers with a 0.86 ERA in three career starts versus Texas. Lyles is 2-4 with a 5.75 ERA. He is 4-5 career-wise against the Giants with a 5.31 ERA in 22 appearances, including 10 starts. Wood is my clear choice above Lyles, but this is an action play for me. I want the hot Giants against this bad and cold opponent especially when the line is reasonable like it is here. The Giants did suffer a major injury with Evan Longoria being put on the injured list with a shoulder strain. The good news for San Francisco is it expects to get back Brandon Belt. Tuesday Free Play A's minus 1 1/2 runs plus $1.09 (run line) hosting Diamondbacks Unless you're in the habit of laying monster juice, which I'm not, the only way to fade the Diamondbacks on the road is to play the run line. That's what I'm doing here with the A's. Arizona has lost a franchise-record 17 straight games on the road! The Diamondbacks have lost 29 of their past 35 overall games. Oakland is 4-1 in its last five games and was idle on Monday. The A's are 8-0 this season following a day off. The pitching matchup also lends itself to backing the A's. It's Arizona rookie Jon Duplantier versus Chris Bassitt. Duplantier has been talked about the past couple of seasons as a promising pitcher with a high ceiling. That hasn't materialized. Duplantier wasn't good at Triple-A Reno this year with a 7.71 ERA and his big league ERA is 9.35 in two starts. Duplantier last faced the Brewers this past Thursday and surrendered five runs in four innings. Bassitt has been very solid. Oakland is 9-1 in his 10 starts this year. Only once during his past eight starts has Bassitt walked more than one batter and that was just two.
06-07-21	Marlins +135 v. Red Sox		3-5	Loss	-100	8 h 16 m	Show
Pablo Lopez is an underrated starter carrying a 2.82 ERA. The Red Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. The situation isn't ideal either for Boston. The Red Sox return home for the first time since May 29 fat and happy having just completed their first three-game road sweep of the Yankees, their most hated rival, since 2011. The Red Sox nipped the Yankees, 6-5, in 10 innings in the Sunday night game. This was supposed to be a day off for Boston. But instead the Red Sox have to play this single makeup game against Miami because of a May 30 rainout. Boston hosts the Astros on Tuesday. The Red Sox may not have slugger J.D. Martinez. He's missed the last two games with a wrist injury. The Marlins have their confidence up after halting an eight-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory against the Pirates on Sunday. The Marlins usually are pesky. They lost five games by one or two runs during their recent losing skid. Miami will be facing Nick Pivetta, who is having a good season with a 6-1 record and 3.77 ERA. The Marlins are familiar with Pivetta, who used to pitch for the Phillies. Pivetta has a bad history against the Marlins with a 2-4 lifetime mark and 5.36 ERA in 11 appearances, including eight starts.
06-06-21	Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 8.5		2-4	Win	101	4 h 14 m	Show
The Dodgers have been swinging hot bats and the Braves lead the majors in homers. But this is too high of a total given the pitching matchup. Trevor Bauer is one of the best pitchers in baseball and Max Fried is coming on after a slow start. There are three additional factors pointing to this total being too high. There's a slight wind blowing in, Larry Vanover is slated to be the home plate umpire and Sunday is traditionally the best day of the week for Unders. One reason is some starters being rested. The Under has cashed 13 of the 19 times the past two seasons when Vanover has been behind the plate for 68 percent.
06-05-21	Dodgers -132 v. Braves		4-6	Loss	-132	12 h 27 m	Show
The Braves have never defeated Clayton Kershaw in 11 regular season tries and I don't see them ending that streak here. After a bumpy beginning, the Dodgers have gotten it together as expected going 16-6 during their last 22 games. LA is tough on the road winning 50 of its last 74 away contests for 68 percent. Kershaw has a 1.78 career ERA versus Atlanta. He's taking on Charlie Morton, who has shown regression with a 4.11 ERA. Morton has a 6.55 ERA against the Dodgers in two career starts versus them.
06-05-21	Rays v. Rangers UNDER 8.5	Top	3-0	Win	100	10 h 33 m	Show
Petco Park has been considered the premier pitching stadium in baseball. But the new Globe Life Park in Arlington, which opened last July, is challenging Petco as the best pitching park in the majors. Lefty Rich Hill is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. He goes for the Rays against Texas southpaw Kolby Allard. Hill has a 1.11 ERA during his last seven starts spanning 40 2/3 innings. He's struck out 46 batters during this span. Hill is backed by a Tampa Bay bullpen that has the third-lowest ERA in the AL. Allard is a former first-round draft pick of the Braves, who has pitched mainly in relief compiling a 3.38 ERA. He gave up two runs on two hits during his lone start against the Mariners on May 27. Tampa Bay is batting .219 versus lefties. The Rays rank 13th out of 15 American League teams in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS against left-handed pitching.
06-04-21	Indians -112 v. Orioles	Top	1-3	Loss	-112	17 h 9 m	Show
Break up the Orioles. They've won two in a row. They also had lost 14 straight games before then. Baltimore also has the worst home mark in the majors by far at 8-19. The price is cheap to back the road Indians here. The pitching matchup is Jean Carlos Mejia versus lefty Keegan Akin. It's the first big league start for Mejia and second start of the year for Akin. Mejia hasn't been scored on this season in five innings of relief. He's given up just one hit and one walk with seven strikeouts. Akin has a 4.80 ERA. The Indians are 8-2 in their past 10 road games when facing a lefty starter. But the pitching matchup isn't the reason I want Cleveland. This is an action play for me based on laying a low price with a far superior team. Friday Free Play Nationals plus $1.02 at Phillies Keep an eye on emerging superstar Juan Soto. He's coming on. Soto is a factor, but there are other reasons why I like the Nationals as an underdog to the Phillies. The pitching matchup is Max Scherzer versus Zack Wheeler. I like Wheeler, who is 4-2 with a 2.52 ERA. But I like Scherzer better. The future Hall of Famer still is very good with a 2.34 ERA. He shouldn't have to deal with Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius, both of whom are expected to be out due to injuries. Scherzer is 5-1 with a 2.63 ERA in eight career starts with the Nationals at Philadelphia. The Phillies blasted the Reds, 17-3, in their last game. That was back on Tuesday, though. The Phillies have been idle since so they could be a little rusty. Prior to that massacre of the Reds, the Phillies were averaging a puny 2.1 runs in their past six games.
06-03-21	Cubs v. Giants -123		2-7	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
This is a short price to get the Giants at home. San Francisco has the best record in baseball and is 15-8 at home. The Cubs are making their first West Coast trip of the season. They have a losing road mark on the season and have lost six of the past eight times in San Francisco. Chicago is 3-8 the past 11 times as a road 'dog, while the Giants have won 23 of the past 31 times they've been home chalk. The pitching matchup is Zach Davies, who has a 4.65 ERA, versus Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 3.56 ERA. I like DeSclafani better, but this is an action play for me. The Cubs haven't been on the road since May 27. Now they go against the team with the best mark in baseball.
06-03-21	Rangers v. Rockies -107		6-11	Win	100	8 h 54 m	Show
The Rangers have lost 14 straight road games. The price on the Rockies is extremely short. Nolan Ryan isn't pitching for Texas. Enough said? OK, here's some more. The Rangers have lost eight consecutive overall games. They've been on the road since May 24. The Rangers' finally return home following this game. So their minds and morale may not be fully focused. More? Texas has the fourth-worst record in baseball. Colorado is 8-2 in its last 10 home games and usually plays much better at Coors Field. The pitching matchup is Mike Foltynewicz versus Austin Gomber. Foltynewicz is 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA. Gomber, a lefty, is 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA. Gomber is in outstanding form with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts with a 26-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio spanning 23 1/3 innings. He's also pitched well at hitter-friendly Coors with a 1.88 ERA. Texas is 17-40 the last 57 times it has faced a southpaw on the road.
06-02-21	Rangers v. Rockies -104	Top	3-6	Win	100	18 h 53 m	Show
This is a great price to back the Rockies at home against a bad Rangers team that has lost seven in a row and 13 straight on the road. Colorado has won seven of its last nine games at Coors Field. The Rockies have won 69 percent of the past 98 times they've been a home favorite. The Rockies' home edge is enhanced with capacity increased to 70 percent, which could mean 35,000 fans in the stands. The pitching matchup is Jordan Lyles versus Antonio Senzatela. I'm not a fan of Lyles, who is a journeyman and has a 5.79 ERA. His ERA was 7.02 last season. Lyles has been on five teams in the last five years. The Rangers' bullpen is short on depth due to injuries. Senzatela has a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. He's pitched better at home than on the road. But this is an action play for me. I want the Rockies at home at this short price against a Rangers squad trying to halt a 13-game road losing skid.
06-01-21	Rangers v. Rockies -111	Top	2-3	Win	100	18 h 22 m	Show
The Rockies should be fine returning to Coors Field where they have won six of their last eight games. German Marquez knows how to pitch there. Marquez is in good form with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. The Rangers have lost 12 consecutive road games. They figure to have trouble at Coors Field. Dane Dunning gets the start for them. Dunning looked good early in the season, but he's fallen on hard times. He gave up seven runs on seven hits in just four innings this past Wednesday to the Angels. Dunning is 0-3 with a 7.97 ERA in five road starts this season.
05-31-21	Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers		4-9	Loss	-128	12 h 6 m	Show
Jack Flaherty isn't getting enough respect here. I don't know if he can outduel Trevor Bauer on the road, but I'll lay a price to take 1 1/2 runs on the run line and find out because I do expect a low-scoring game. So does the oddsmaker with this short total. Flaherty is an elite pitcher with the record to back it up - 8-1 with a 2.84 ERA. He has a 1.08 lifetime ERA in two starts versus the Dodgers with 36 strikeouts in 25 innings. The Cardinals enter this matchup winning four of their last five games. The Dodgers are on a three-game losing streak after just concluding a four-game series against their arch-rival the Giants. Bauer is an elite pitcher, too. But he has a 5.56 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis.
05-31-21	Angels v. Giants -130	Top	1-6	Win	100	8 h 8 m	Show
Because of having the worst bullpen ERA in the majors and being a below average defensive team, especially without Mike Trout, the Angels need strong starting pitching. They haven't been getting that from Dylan Bundy. Bundy has a whopping 15.83 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants faced Bundy last August and he couldn't reach the fifth inning giving up two homers in an 8-2 loss. The Giants have been a major surprise with the second-best record in the National League and third-best overall mark. San Francisco is a strong 22-7 as home chalk. The Giants hold bullpen, defense and starting pitching edges with Johnny Cueto on the mound to oppose the cold Bundy. Cueto isn't an ace anymore, but he's a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter with a lifetime 1.35 ERA against the Angels in four starts, including a 7-2 win against them last Aug.
05-30-21	Cardinals -112 v. Diamondbacks		2-9	Loss	-112	6 h 4 m	Show
Once again the price is right to fade the Diamondbacks, who have lost 13 in a row and 23 of their last 27 games. The Diamondbacks continue to display bad pitching, bad defense and untimely defense. The pitching matchup favors St. Louis, too. Kwang-Hyun Kim has a 3.09 ERA. Kim doesn't go too many innings, but he's proven tough to score against. Arizona is pitching Matt Peacock, who has a 4.91 ERA. The Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 games at Arizona.
05-30-21	Angels v. A's OVER 8.5		4-2	Loss	-105	8 h 29 m	Show
Oakland has scored four or more runs in 10 of its last 15 games. Now the A's get to face Jose Quintana. Quintana hasn't been good for the past four years and he's been terrible this season with an 0-3 record and 7.92 ERA. That ERA skyrockets up to 12.54 if you count only his road performances. The Angels also have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.13. Cole Irvin starts for the A's. He began the year fast, but is in a slump now yielding nine runs and 18 hits in his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Sunday Free Play White Sox minus 1 1/2 minus $1.19 (run line) hosting Orioles Looking to go against the Orioles? The line starts on the left and it's blocks long. I'm going to skip in front, though, by laying 1 1/2 runs with the White Sox against the Orioles on the run line. Baltimore has lost 12 in a row with 10 of those defeats occurring by more than one run. Here's another thing: The pitching matchup is Lucas Giolito versus Keegan Akin, who happens to be left-handed. The White Sox are 12-3 facing southpaw starters this season. That impressive mark goes up to a mind-boggling 25-3 if you go back to last year. Giolito is one of the better pitchers in the American League. He has 23 strikeouts in his last 20 innings and is backed by a White Sox bullpen that has the fourth-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.22. Baltimore has managed just 15 runs in its last six games, an average of 2.5 runs. Akin will be making his first start of the season. He had a 4.56 ERA in eight games, including six starts, as a rookie last season. The White Sox are hitting an American League-best .279 versus lefties. They rank No. 1 in the majors against lefties in slugging percentage and OPS. Akin doesn't figure to get any help from a Baltimore relief corps that has the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.07.
05-29-21	Cardinals -134 v. Diamondbacks		7-4	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
Even at 39, Adam Wainwright can come up with a gem. He did last Sunday against the Cubs holding them to one hit and one walk in eight scoreless innings. But starting pitching isn't the main reason I'm getting behind the Cardinals here even though the Diamondbacks are pitching Seth Frankoff, who has a 7.27 ERA. I just want to keep fading the Diamondbacks. They've lost 12 in a row and 15 of their past 16. They are the worst team in the National League. The lay price isn't too crazy either in which to go against Arizona.
05-28-21	Padres +104 v. Astros	Top	10-3	Win	104	16 h 6 m	Show
Dinelson Lamet and Framber Valdez are promising young pitchers, who are coming back from injuries. Lamet has shown more upside and is further along than southpaw Valdez. I think it's wrong that Lamet and the Padres opened as underdogs. Lamet finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting last season. He's 1-0 with a 1.64 in five appearances this season. He's yet to pitch more than three innings because the Padres are being extremely careful with him. Lamet could start to get stretched out beginning with this game. Valdez is making his first start of 2021. He's probably going to be on a pitch count. Valdez was 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA last season. San Diego has won the last four times it has faced a lefty starter. The Padres have been red-hot winning 11 of their last 13 games. Houston is 1-4 in its last five games. This is just the second series of the season where the Padres get to use a DH. They swept the Rangers three games in their first road series against an AL opponent.
05-27-21	Cardinals -121 v. Diamondbacks		5-4	Win	100	18 h 35 m	Show
Sooner or later, the Diamondbacks will win a game. They've lost by two or fewer runs in six of their last nine games. But the bottom line right now is Arizona has dropped 19 of its last 22 games, including the past 10. This is the Diamondbacks' longest losing skid in 11 years. So as long as the lay price is manageable, which it is here, I'm going to fade Arizona. Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez is having a solid season. He's held four of his last five opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He holds a career 2.51 ERA versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks are going with Matt Peacock, who is making only his third big league start.
05-26-21	Royals v. Rays -1.5	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	16 h 4 m	Show
The Rays have been the best team during the past couple of weeks winning 11 in a row through Monday with the last nine of those victories coming by more than one run. The Royals halted that streak with a 2-1 victory on Tuesday. But with Tyler Glasnow on the mound Wednesday, I'm fully expecting the Rays to get back to their winning form in convincing fashion. Glasnow is 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA. He's been absolutely dominant at home with a 2.20 ERA and a 44-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Glasnow should easily handle a below-average Kansas City offense that struck out 13 times against Rich Hill on Tuesday. The Royals rank 19th in runs and 28th in homers. Mike Minor draws the start for Kansas City. After some promising seasons in Atlanta, Minor has turned into a journeyman. The Royals are the third team he's been on during the last two years. Minor's ERA was well above 5.00 last season and it's 5.14 this year. His strikeout numbers have dropped and his WHIP has gone up. He's now just an innings-eater at best. The Rays rank among the top nine in runs and homers. The Rays have won 57 of their last 84 home games for 68 percent playing their games in quirky Tropicana Field with it's lightning fast astroturf and weird stadium dimensions. It's a tough adjustment for the opposition. The Royals have lost 12 of the past 15 times when playing on astroturf and are 5-14 in their last 19 meetings against Tampa Bay, including going 2-6 during their past eight games at Tropicana Field.
05-25-21	Cardinals +130 v. White Sox	Top	3-8	Loss	-100	19 h 6 m	Show
Jack Flaherty and Lucas Giolito are heavyweight pitchers. But I'm siding with Flaherty especially in the rare role as an underdog. Flaherty is a solid Cy Young candidate being 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The White Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. The White Sox dominated against lefty starters, but are just 17-16 versus righthanded starters. Giolito has a 4.35 ERA this season, although he has been pitching better. This will be his third career start against St. Louis. He's allowed eight runs of which seven were earned in 11 1/3 innings against the Cardinals. Giolito has to deal with a hot Nolan Arenado, who has four homers and eight RBI's during his last 10 games. He's 3-for-3 lifetime lifetime versus Giolito. Tuesday Free Play Red Sox plus $1.09 hosting Braves The Red Sox have been a tremendous money-maker as an underdog winning 14 of the past 17 times in that role. They opened as a slight 'dog hosting the Braves in a pitching matchup of Charlie Morton versus Garrett Richards. Morton has a 4.60 ERA. His road ERA is 4.41. He's surrendered a home run in six of his last seven starts. This could prove significant because the Red Sox are nearly as powerful as the Braves. Atlanta leads the majors with 78 homers after smacking 15 of them during their recently concluded four-game series against the hapless Pirates. The Red Sox, however, have hit the second-most homers in the American League with 65. They are the only team that has three players in double figures in homers with Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez. Richards has pitched well very well this month going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA. He's held the opposition to only two homers during his past seven starts.
05-24-21	Indians +118 v. Tigers		6-5	Win	118	7 h 23 m	Show
Congrats to Spencer Turnbull on throwing a no-hitter against the Mariners during his last start six days ago. But I'm not buying the Tigers as a favorite against the Indians even in a pitching matchup of lefty Sam Hentges versus Turnbull. The Tigers have a losing record against lefty starters. Cleveland has one of the best bullpens in the majors so Hentges doesn't have to go deep in this game. It's not the worst thing to go against a pitcher after he throws a no-hitter, especially an unlikely one such as Turnbull, who has a terrible history against Cleveland. Turnbull is 0-6 lifetime versus the Indians with a 5.18 ERA in nine appearances. The Indians are batting .325 against him with a .482 slugging percentage. Cleveland is 11-4 the past 15 times going against a righty starter and has won five of the past six times it has been a 'dog.
05-24-21	Rockies v. Mets OVER 6.5		3-2	Loss	-119	7 h 23 m	Show
Even with the Mets having multiple players out and the Rockies being a horrendous road team, this total is too low given the starting pitching matchup of Austin Gomber versus David Peterson. Gomber has a 4.96 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine starts this year. Peterson has similar below average numbers with a 4.97 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. The Mets still have some respectable batters left in their lineup, including Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith and Jonathan Villar. The Rockies are getting strong seasons from Raimel Tapia and C.J. Cron. They also have proven stars Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon. Colorado is averaging six runs during its last three games.
05-22-21	Tigers v. Royals UNDER 8.5		5-7	Loss	-104	11 h 34 m	Show
Two bad offenses squaring off against starting pitchers who are better than they may be perceived. So at this number, I'll go Under. Let's begin with lefty Matthew Boyd. He's pitched well with a 2.45 ERA. This is his third start versus the Royals this season. Kansas City has only managed one earned run off him in 14 innings. The Royals have a below average offense. They've hit the third-fewest homers in the majors. The Under also is 21-5 (81 percent) the last 26 times the Royals have gone against a southpaw starter. The teams have an Under history, too, when going against each other with the low side 13-3-1 the past 17 times. Detroit's offense is even worse than Kansas City's. The Tigers rank in the bottom-five in the major offensive categories. They draw Brady Singer, who has a 3.18 ERA in day action. The wind will be blowing out to left field at 10-12 mph. This is somewhat offset by cloudy conditions with possible light rain and Lance Barrett slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed at a 57 percent rate the past three seasons when Barrett has been behind the plate.
05-21-21	White Sox +101 v. Yankees	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	11 h 25 m	Show
After facing the Orioles and Rangers during the final seven games of their 10-game road swing, the Yankees return home to face a real team - the White Sox. The White Sox have turned the corner, owning the best record in the American League at 26-16. Carlos Rodon is one reason for this. He's been magnificent going 5-1 with a 1.47 ERA. Rodon has 49 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings this season. I prefer Rodon far more than Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, who I view as the weak spot in their rotation. Montgomery has a 4.75 ERA and is coming off a poor outing against the Orioles giving up five runs in just three innings. Worse, Montgomery is lefthanded. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 23-2 (92 percent) versus southpaw starters since the start of last season! The White Sox rank in the top three in runs and batting average. The Yankees are 22nd in runs and 24th in batting average. Friday Free Play Cardinals plus $1.07 hosting Cubs Don't be fooled by the Cubs taking three of four from the Nationals. That series was played at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have yet to show they can perform well on the road losing 12 of their 18 away contests. This applies to Kyle Hendricks, too. He has a 6.17 road ERA. St. Louis has won 14 of its 22 home games. Carlos Martinez is coming off the injured list to start. Perhaps bothered by a sprained ankle that landed him on the IL, Martinez surrendered five runs on six hits and five walks in five innings against the Rockies during his previous start on May 8. Before that performance, Martinze had been dominant in three straight starts giving up two earned runs in 21 1/3 innings for a 0.84 ERA. The Cubs can't seem to get fully healthy as Jason Heyward just went on the injured list.
05-20-21	Yankees v. Rangers UNDER 8.5	Top	2-0	Win	100	8 h 37 m	Show
The Rangers are a below average scoring team playing in a stadium that has become a huge pitcher's park. The Under has cashed in 64 percent of the Rangers' 22 home games this season. The Rangers face Domingo German, who has a 2.74 road ERA and an elite Yankee bullpen. Dane Dunning has been the Rangers' best starter. He's better than his 4.34 ERA may indicate going by various metrics, including a 2.63 FIP. Dunning has held the opposition to two earned runs or fewer in five of his eight starts. Bill Miller is slated to be the home plate umpire. He has one of the highest strike percentages of any umpire. Note, too, this is an early start time and getaway game so a key regular or two may be rested.
05-19-21	Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5		5-8	Win	100	10 h 59 m	Show
I don't need much of an excuse to fade the Pirates especially when they are on the road. Jack Flaherty gives me a strong reason to not only go against Pittsburgh, but lay 1 1/2 runs on the run line against them in order to scale back the heavy juice. The Pirates are last in the majors in homers and second-to-last in runs. They are facing perhaps the best and hottest pitcher in the National League. Flaherty is 7-0 with a 2.47 ERA. He's on a string of 13 scoreless innings. Flaherty has a strong history against the Pirates, too, with a 7-1 record and 2.14 ERA in 10 career starts. Pittsburgh has lost 42 of its past 58 road games. Each of the Pirates' last five losses have come by more than one run. Pittsburgh has one decent starting pitcher, JT Brubaker. And he pitched yesterday in a 5-2 loss to St. Louis. So now it's Trevor Cahill's turn to pitch. Good news for the Cardinals. Cahill is 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA. He has a career 4.53 ERA versus the Cardinals in 15 appearances, including seven starts.
05-18-21	Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9		0-8	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
Hyun Jin Ryu is one of the best pitchers in the American League. I consider Eduardo Rodriguez to be Boston's top pitcher. Throw in an 18 mph wind blowing in from right and I'm going Under this total. The Under has cashed in nine of the Red Sox last 11 road games. Entering the season, the Red Sox bullpen was a huge question mark. But Matt Barnes has come through as the closer. Prior to giving up a game-winner homer to Shohei Ohtani two days ago, Barnes was 9-for-9 in save opportunities giving up no runs while holding foes to a .034 batting average.
05-17-21	Indians +127 v. Angels	Top	4-7	Loss	-100	15 h 13 m	Show
There are very few teams the Angels should be favored against when starting Patrick Sandoval - and the Indians aren't one of those teams. Cleveland has defeated the Angels eight straight times, outscoring them by nearly three runs a game during this win streak. The Indians own a winning road record. The Angels have a sub .500 home mark. Southpaw Sam Hentges is set to make his second career start for Cleveland. He tossed 4 2/3 scoreless innings with six strikeouts in his first start five days ago against the Cubs. Hentges has 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this year. The Angels are 2-9 in their past 11 games versus a lefty starter, including 2-7 this season. They are batting .225 against southpaws. The Angels have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their past 14 games. Sandoval has a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP pitching in relief. This will be his first start of the season. He's expected to be on around a 60-65 pitch count setting up a bullpen game for the Angels, who have the worst team ERA in the majors at 5.32. Monday Free Play White Sox minus $1.05 at Twins At some point the Twins have to improve on their 13-25 record. They certainly aren't that bad. But I don't see Minnesota starting to turn around its season in this game. Yes, the Twins draw aging and declining Dallas Keuchel. But the White Sox get southpaw J.A. Happ. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 22-2 against lefty starters since the start of last season. Chicago leads the majors in batting against lefties at .293. The next closest is the Red Sox at .282. Happ found out the hard way how well the White Sox hit and play against lefties when he faced them in a 13-8 loss this past Wednesday in Chicago. The White Sox battered Happ for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings, by far his worst outing of the season. The 38-year-old Happ is another over-the-hill veteran, who has a bad history against the White Sox. His ERA is 6.34 in nine career starts versus Chicago. The White Sox lead the American League with a .343 on-bast percentage. Current White Sox batters are hitting a combined .333 versus Happ. Chicago enters this series having won eight of its last 10, while the Twins have dropped nine of their last 11 games. Minnesota is giving up an average of 7.1 runs in its last seven games.
05-16-21	Phillies v. Blue Jays -163	Top	8-10	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
Yes, we're getting into the high chalk range here as I usually don't like to lay more than minus $1.50 on a baseball game unless I perceive excellent value on the favorite. That's the case here. Lefty Robbie Ray is riding a tremendous hot streak, the Phillies have problems hitting southpaw starters and they are dealing with multiple injuries that could leave them without four starters for this game, including Bryce Harper. Another thing. The Phillies are starting Chase Anderson. The journeyman has a 5.23 ERA this season. The Blue Jays know him well since he was on their team last season. Ray has 33 strikeouts in his last four starts spanning 24 2/3 innings. Ray is a monster strikeout pitcher. The negative with Ray has been his high walk ratio and many base runners. However, Ray's WHIP is 1.10 this season. That shrinks to 0.91 going by his last four starts where he has a fantastic 33-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio! The Phillies have played 12 games against lefty starters. These opposing southpaws have a combined 2.80 ERA against Philadelphia with a 77-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lefty Anthony Kay held the Phillies scoreless in four innings on Saturday giving up just one hit and striking out six. The Phillies are going to be without injured shortstop Didi Gregorius and also likely won't have Harper and catcher J.T. Realmuto. Both left Saturday's 4-0 loss to the Blue Jays with injuries. Harper has shoulder soreness while Realmuto has a sore wrist. Andrew McCutchen also had a hip problem in that game so he may sit out today.
05-15-21	Cubs v. Tigers OVER 8.5		8-9	Win	100	14 h 18 m	Show
I can easily envision each team producing at least four runs in a pitching matchup of Trevor Williams versus Jose Urena, especially considering the bullpens. Williams is 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA on the road this season. The Cubs are vulnerable in middle relief. Urena is 1-4 on the season with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. The Tigers could have the worst bullpen in the majors. The Cubs are almost at full strength and have their two key hitters, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, back in the lineup and swinging well.
05-14-21	Indians -107 v. Mariners		3-7	Loss	-107	9 h 13 m	Show
Maybe I'm missing something here. But if I am, I'm not sure what it is because I'm surprised the Indians are such a short favorite. The Indians check the boxes. Current form? Cleveland is 9-1 in its last 10 games. Seattle has lost five in a row. Pitting matchup: Aaron Civale is 5-0 with a 2.91 ERA. He's a solid No. 3 rotation starter. Chris Flexen has a 3.78 ERA. He's a bottom-end type rotation starter. Offense: The Indians are averaging 4.5 runs in their last four games. They rank 17 in runs. The Mariners are averaging 2.2 runs in their past four games. They rank 22nd in runs. History: The Indians have won six of the past seven games against the Mariners. Cleveland is 4-0 in its last four visits to Seattle.
05-14-21	Cubs -132 v. Tigers	Top	4-2	Win	100	16 h 11 m	Show
Cubs minus $1.35 at Tigers In Jake we trust? I don't know if I can fully commit to Jake Arrieta, but I do know I want to fade Tarik Skubal. The Tigers are 0-5 in Skubal's starts. A big reason for this is Skubal has a 5.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Skubal doesn't figure to get bailed out either by a bullpen that is the worst in baseball with a 6.55 ERA through this past Wednesday. Arrieta was pitching well up until his last start giving up two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts. His ERA was 2.57 through five starts. But then he faced the Reds, the second-highest scoring team in the majors, and was hit for seven runs in 3 1/3 innings on April 30. Arrieta was bothered by a cut on his right thumb during that start, which could explain his poor performance. This will be Arrieta's first time pitching since then. He's facing a weak Detroit lineup that ranks 29th in runs and is last in OPS. The Cubs were 5-1 until losing a pair of one-run games to the Indians with one of those defeats occurring when going against Shane Bieber. So certainly no shame in that. The Cubs were getting base runners, but went a mind-boggling 2-for-27 in runners in scoring position during that Indians series. That should change against Skubal and a terrible Detroit bullpen. The Cubs are banged-up, but were idle on Thursday. So today they could see a return to the lineup of Kris Bryant, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner.
05-13-21	Reds v. Rockies OVER 10.5		8-13	Win	100	17 h 14 m	Show
Chi Chi Gonzalez entered this season as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. He has lived up to that billing with a 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Luis Castillo entered this year as one of the better pitchers in the National League. Castillo has not lived up to that reputation with a 6.42 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Neither bullpen is very good. The Reds had the worst bullpen ERA in the National League going into Wednesday. Cincinnati is short of relievers with Amir Garrett suspended. The Reds' bullpen also carries a fatigue rating after working 5 1/3 innings on Wednesday. Gonzalez has an 11.42 ERA in two May starts. He may not be holding a starting spot too much longer. The Reds rank second in the majors in runs and third in homers. Both teams have been on good Over runs. The Over is 13-6-1 in Cincinnati's last 20 games, while the Rockies have gone Over in 13 of their last 17 games.
05-11-21	Yankees v. Rays +119	Top	3-1	Loss	-100	18 h 25 m	Show
I can see the Yankees being a road favorite against the Rays if Gerrit Cole is on the mound. But he isn't here. It's Jordan Montgomery so this number is off. The Yankees have a lot of trouble against the Rays, going 5-18 during the last 23 meetings. New York has lost eight of the past 10 times on Astroturf, too. Quirky Tropicana Field gives the Rays a solid home field edge, especially against the Yankees. Montgomery won his first start back on April 5. He hasn't won since. He has a 4.41 ERA on the season and a bad history versus the Rays - 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA. This includes two starts against the Rays this season where he's 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings. The Yankees are going to have to deal with Luis Patino for a few innings. He's an exciting young fireballer with 10 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings and a 1.17 ERA. The Yankees have never faced him, which is to their disadvantage. Tampa Bay has continued its domination of the Yankees this year going 5-1. I don't see that domination ending in this matchup.
05-09-21	Rays v. A's -109		4-3	Loss	-109	6 h 46 m	Show
Tampa Bay rookie Shane McClanahan has electric stuff. He's shown that through two big league starts. But how is his command? How is his control? How much stamina does he have? I don't have those questions for Oakland starter Cole Irvin. He's earned trust with me going 3-1 with a 1.42 ERA during his last four starts. Irvin is coming off eight innings of work against the Blue Jays where he allowed only one run with nine strikeouts this past Tuesday. The A's are strong at home and have been playing well winning 20 of their last 27 games. The Rays have two significant injuries to the middle of their defense with center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and catcher Francisco Mejia both out with injuries.
05-08-21	Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9		11-6	Win	100	7 h 56 m	Show
The Red Sox are the No. 1 scoring team in baseball averaging 5.2 runs per game. That figure rises to 7 runs per game if you go by the last seven games. Boston draws lefty Zac Lowther, making his first big league start, probably followed by a bevy of Baltimore relievers as this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Orioles. The Red Sox are 7-3 versus lefty starters. Garrett Richards will be on the hill for Boston. He's pitched better his last two starts, but struggled early in the season when he had to go against the Orioles twice. This already is the Orioles' third look at Richards, whose career record against the Orioles is 0-5 with a 6.38 ERA in 10 appearances, including six starts. The Orioles have been getting runners on base. They've scored 5 or more runs in four of their last six games.
05-07-21	White Sox -145 v. Royals		3-0	Win	100	10 h 35 m	Show
Best American League pitcher in April? Allow me to nominate Carlos Rodon, who went 4-0 with a 0.72 ERA. Rodon has given up just two earned runs in 25 innings and has 36 strikeouts. The Royals had been a major surprise, but reality is catching to them. They've lost five in a row to fall out of first place in the AL Central. The Royals are hoping Brad Keller, backed by a cold Royals bullpen that has a 5.80 ERA during the last two weeks, can halt the skid. Not in this spot, though. Keller hasn't contributed to the Royals' early success with an 8.06 ERA. The White Sox are 22-9 the past 31 times as road chalk and have won seven in a row at Kansas City.
05-06-21	Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5		9-12	Loss	-108	11 h 38 m	Show
Nathan Eovaldi has come through as a good No. 2 pitcher for the Red Sox. He's had four of six excellent starts and is facing a weak Tigers lineup that ranks 30th in runs, batting average and OPS. Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull has pitched better than his 4.50 ERA may indicate. He's a sinkerball pitcher. So I don't anticipate the Red Sox beating him with the long ball. Ron Kulpa is slated to be the home plate umpire. He has a good Under reputation that is backed by the Under going 28-20 (58 percent) the past four years when he's been behind the plate.
05-05-21	Blue Jays v. A's -118	Top	9-4	Loss	-118	14 h 45 m	Show
I had the A's at around this price Tuesday night and I'm coming right back on them. Oakland has won 11 of its last 13 home games. The A's have faced lefty starters in four of their last five games, going 4-1 in those games. Long-term, the A's have won 75 percent of their last 63 games versus southpaw starters. This doesn't bode well for Toronto starter, southpaw. Robbie Ray. I think every fantasy baseball owner has flirted with Ray at some point in some league. Ray always disappoints. Yes he gets strikeouts. But he also walks way too many batters, which leads to a high ERA and ratio. I prefer Oakland starter Chris Bassitt, who has become dependable. He's 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts with at least eight strikeouts in each of these starts. The Blue Jays are missing several players as George Springer is hurt again. Also out is catcher Alejandro Kirk.
05-05-21	Pirates v. Padres -1.5		2-4	Win	104	8 h 39 m	Show
Neither team has been scoring much. The difference is the Pirates aren't going to break loose eventually like the Padres are because they don't have the offense and stars that San Diego possess. That, in a nutshell, explains the pitching matchup, too, of JT Brubaker versus Yu Darvish. Brubaker has been a highly pleasant surprise for the Pirates with a 2.63 ERA. Perhaps Brubaker will continue to pitch extremely well, but his metrics suggest he's due for regression, including a hard contact ratio and a 91.2 left on base percentage. Darvish is at the superstar level with a 3-1 record and 2.13 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 1.35 ERA if you take Darvish's last 33 1/3 innings. The Pirates are averaging two runs during their last five games.
05-04-21	Blue Jays v. A's -119		1-4	Win	100	9 h 45 m	Show
I like the A's at home. I especially like the pitching matchup for them here and the price is right to back them. Oakland is one of the toughest places to play for opposing teams. The A's have won 10 of their last 12 home games. I had some doubts about Cole Irvin being in a big-league rotation. But Irvin has reached a trust level for me going 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA during his last three starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 20-to-2 during this span. Anthony Kay is slated to make his second start of the season for Toronto. Kay's first start didn't go well. He gave up four earned runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings in a 7-5 loss to the Royals on April 15. The Blue Jays have been reluctant to start him since.
05-03-21	Rays -112 v. Angels		7-3	Win	100	12 h 28 m	Show
Tyler Glasnow at a very reasonable lay price. That's pretty much my handicap in a nutshell. Except for one bad start against the Blue Jays, Glasnow has been unhittable. He's allowed just two earned runs in his other five starts spanning 31 2/3 innings with 46 strikeouts. Shohei Ohtani can't come close to matching that. Ohtani has yet to reach the sixth inning. He's given up 13 walks in 13 2/3 innings. The Rays have won five of their last six road games. They draw the Angels in their first home game following a nine-game road trip. Tampa Bay has dominated this series winning 14 of the last 19 times.
05-02-21	Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers	Top	16-4	Win	100	3 h 42 m	Show
I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers. Not with a pitching matchup of Julio Urias versus Alec Bettinger. Not with Milwaukee missing 15 players, including Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Omar Narvaez. Not with star relief pitcher Josh Hader almost certainly not being able to pitch. Urias has been one of the better pitchers during the last two seasons. His brilliance is overshadowed, though, being on such a strong Dodgers pitching staff. Urias is 3-0 with a 3.23 ERA this season. His last regular season loss was back in 2019. He is 2-1 lifetime versus the Brewers with a 2.86 ERA in four career starts. Bettinger will be making his big league debut. He is considered the Brewers' No. 23 prospect. Hader has pitched an inning each of the last three days, throwing a total of 45 pitches during this span. So I doubt the Brewers use him today.
05-01-21	Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-116	13 h 32 m	Show
Forks, knives out. The Reds are ready to feast drawing Zach Davies at their great hitting home park. Davies probably isn't staying in the Cubs' starting rotation too much longer with a 9.47 ERA and 15 walks in 19 innings. Davies hasn't made it to the fifth inning during his past four starts. His ERA is 12.15 during this span. The Reds are leading the majors in runs scored at 5.4. The Over has cashed in 11 of their 13 home games for 85 percent. The Cubs' offense is coming around scoring 15 runs during the last two days. Chicago gets disappointing Luis Castillo, who has been terrible with a 6.29 ERA. This isn't a fluke either. Castillo's metrics back up how poorly he's pitched. Castillo's confidence is down. So this is a good spot for another Reds home Over.
04-30-21	Marlins v. Nationals +122		1-2	Win	122	6 h 14 m	Show
Emerging superstar Juan Soto is out for the Nationals. But Washington's injury list is nothing compared to the Marlins. Out for Miami are Starling Marte, Brian Anderson, Jorge Alfaro, Jazz Chisholm, Corey Dickerson and Garrett Cooper. The Marlins have to count on Pablo Lopez to keep them in this game and Lopez has been dreadful against the Nationals. Lopez has a 6.61 versus Washington. That ERA climbs to 8.10 in four starts at Washington. Veteran Jon Lester is set to make his season debut for the Nationals.
04-29-21	Dodgers -152 v. Brewers	Top	1-2	Loss	-152	14 h 14 m	Show
Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and possibly even Freddy Peralta might give Trevor Bauer a close game. Not Eric Lauer. So this clearly is that rare case of a mid-size favorite having excellent value as I'd have made Bauer and the Dodgers close to a $2.00 favorite. Bauer had an NL-best 1.73 ERA last year. He's rounding into elite form this season with a 2-0 mark and 1.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts during his last three starts spanning 19 innings. Opponents are batting only .138 against Bauer during this span. The Dodgers have a rested bullpen, too, after Clayton Kershaw threw seven shutout innings in the Dodgers' 8-0 victory against the Reds on Wednesday. The Brewers are 20th in runs and 24th in batting average. Christian Yelich and Lornzo Cain are out. Bauer has a 2.66 ERA in three career starts versus the Brewers with a 32-to-4 strikeouts-to-walks ratio with one of those walks being intentional. Lauer, a lefty, was 0-2 with a 13.09 ERA in four appearances, including two starts, for Milwaukee last year. This is his season debut. The Dodgers, who ranked fourth in runs, have won 26 of their last 38 games against a southpaw starter.
04-28-21	Royals -116 v. Pirates		9-6	Win	100	8 h 15 m	Show
Step to the head of the line if you knew the Royals have the best winning percentage in the majors. Kansas City is 14-8 and should get past Pittsburgh in a pitching matchup of lefty Mike Minor versus Mitch Keller. Minor is a respectable five-inning type pitcher and the Pirates are 0-8 in their past eight interleague games when going against a southpaw starter. Keller has command and control problems. He's 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in four starts. The Royals have an above average offense and rank No. 2 in steals despite not having Adalberto Mondesi all season.
04-27-21	Phillies -106 v. Cardinals		2-5	Loss	-106	12 h 22 m	Show
It's time to talk up Zach Eflin. Based on his early season performance, he's now in the argument for best No. 3 starter. Eflin has a 2.77 ERA with a 19-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26 innings. One of the two walks Elfin gave up was intentional. Philadelphia is 10-2 in Eflin's last 12 starts. The Cardinals rank 22nd in batting average hitting .222. The Phillies, by comparison, have the seventh-highest batting average in the league at .243. St. Louis has been held to two or fewer runs in five of its last eight games. Carlos Martinez will oppose Eflin. Martinez is off his best start in three seasons pitching six innings of one-run baseball against the Nationals five days ago. Martinez, though, still isn't anywhere close to being trusted. He has a 6.00 ERA despite that gem. St. Louis is 0-5 in his last five starts.
04-26-21	Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9	Top	2-4	Loss	-105	17 h 1 m	Show
Both offenses have been underachieving. Here is their chance to get right going against vulnerable starting pitching in a great hitter's park. Youngster Deivi Garcia is set to make his season debut. He had a 4.98 ERA in six games for the Yankees last season. Garcia has a high ceiling, but is still very much a work-in-progress and in the developmental stage. Matt Harvey is going for the Orioles. Need I say more? OK, here's more: Harvey shouldn't be in a big league rotation. His last good season was six years ago. He had an 11.57 ERA last season. His ERA was 7.09 in 2019. This season his ERA is 5.12 in four starts. I don't think he's long to stay in Baltimore's starting rotation. These teams have a strong Over history when playing in Baltimore with the Over cashing 68 percent of the time during the past 51 games.
04-25-21	Phillies v. Rockies -107		2-12	Win	100	6 h 10 m	Show
It has been 16 games since the Phillies last won two in a row. I don't see Philadelphia ending that streak here. Like many teams, the Phillies have trouble playing at Coors Field where they have lost eight of the past 10 times. Jon Gray is off to a good start for Colorado. Gray knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He's 2-0 there this season with a 1.47 ERA in three starts. Chase Anderson hasn't had much luck at Coors where he has a fat 6.66 ERA in five career starts versus the Rockies in Denver. Sunday Free Play Rangers plus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.10 (run line) at White Sox The White Sox won the first two games of this series by a combined three runs. I'm expecting another close score with a low total and cold weather with temperatures in the low 40s probably meaning runs will be tough to come by. Texas would be 8-4 in its last 12 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. The White Sox would be 4-8 in their past dozen games if minus 1 1/2 runs. The pitching matchup is Kohei Arihara versus Michael Kopech, who is taking the place of Luis Giolito, whose start has been pushed back to Tuesday because of a cut on his middle pitching finger. Arihara has impressed after coming to the Rangers from the Nippon Professional Baseball's Pacific League. He is 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA. He enters this matchup riding a 12 1/3-inning scoreless streak. Kopech is an exciting young strikeout pitcher with a high ceiling. But Kopech isn't expected to pitch deep into the game and he's far from being a polished big league pitcher yet. The White Sox won't have the use of their star closer, Liam Hendriks. He'll be rested after throwing a combined 46 pitches the last two days.
04-24-21	Royals v. Tigers +101		2-1	Loss	-100	8 h 22 m	Show
Helped by playing 13 of their first 18 games at home, the Royals lead the AL Central with an 11-7 mark. Kansas City is due for regression. I'm not buying the Royals as a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Matthew Boyd. Singer is a youngster going through growing pains. He's had two of three rough starts this season with a 3.77 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Royals are minus their closer Greg Holland. Boyd is back to being the Tigers' ace. He's been one of the best pitchers in the AL with 2-1 record, 2.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
04-23-21	Phillies v. Rockies -110	Top	4-5	Win	100	17 h 22 m	Show
Like many teams, the Phillies are vulnerable when it comes to the bottom of their rotation. Philadelphia is in a tough spot today having to give Vince Velasquez a spot start at Colorado because normal starter Matt Moore is in COVID-19 protocol. Velasquez couldn't cut it as a starter before. He's been in long relief. I don't like his chances here against German Marquez. Marquez has been solid with a 3.57 ERA while pitching into the sixth inning in three of his four starts this season. He knows how to pitch effectively at Coors Field, too. The Rockies' bats are heating up. Colorado has scored 6 or more runs in three of its last four games. Velasquez has a 9.00 ERA. Velasquez has a career 4.91 ERA versus the Rockies in seven appearances. Philadelphia has lost in seven of its last eight games at Coors Field. The Phillies also are playing shorthanded. They are down several arms in their bullpen with Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado out and have a middle infield shortage with Jean Segura on the IL with a strained quad and Didi Gregorius questionable due to an elbow injury.
04-20-21	Blue Jays +105 v. Red Sox	Top	2-4	Loss	-100	15 h 28 m	Show
Eduardo Rodriguez has been a nice early story for the Red Sox going 2-0 after having missed all of last season due to health issues. Rodriguez's starts have come against the Orioles and Twins. Now he faces a Blue Jays team that has a number of exciting young offensive stars. This is Rodriquez's first home start in two years. I'm not so much going against Rodriguez as I'm taking Hyun Jin Ryu at an underdog price. It's rare when Ryu is an underdog and this shouldn't be one of those times. Since 2018, Ryu has become an upper level pitcher with ERA's of 1.97, 2.32 and 2.69 last season. He's off to a great start this year with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in three starts. He has 19 strikeouts in 19 innings. Ryu trumps Rodriguez and the Blue Jays have enough quality hitters to warrant trust.
04-20-21	Giants v. Phillies -151		10-7	Loss	-151	15 h 24 m	Show
Zach Wheeler is a quality pitcher. Logan Webb is not. So I have no qualms about laying this price with the home Phillies, who have won seven of their 10 games in Philadelphia this season. Webb has a career 5.30 ERA and 1.55 ratio. There was a glimpse of hope for him when he pitched well during spring training. But once the real season started Webb reverted back to form. He has a 4.76 ERA and 1.76 ratio. The Giants had pulled him out of their starting rotation until Johnny Cueto was put on IL. Wheeler dominated the Braves in his opening start holding them scoreless for seven innings while giving up just one hit with a 10-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He wasn't as sharp in his next two starts against the Braves again and the Mets, but he wasn't terrible giving up three earned runs on each occasion. Now Wheeler steps down in class. The Giants rank 29th in runs and batting average.
04-19-21	Brewers v. Padres OVER 6.5		3-1	Loss	-110	10 h 17 m	Show
Brandon Woodruff is an excellent pitcher. Joe Musgrove has been a star in the early part of this season. But this isn't a pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus Yu Darvish. So a total of less than 7 is not justified especially with the Padres nearing full strength with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Tommy Pham back in the lineup. Christian Yelich is out. Yet if you discount a 6-1 loss to the Pirates, the Brewers have scored 19 runs in their last three games. Woodruff is nearing ace level. I'm not nearly that sold on Musgrove, though. Right now I consider him a middle-of-the-rotation type starter although I certainly acknowledge his fast start and getting to play his home games at Petco Park. I just believe this total is too low. Neither starter has an impressive history. Woodruff has a 4.50 ERA career-wise versus the Padres in three appearances, while Musgrove is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in five starts against the Brewers.
04-18-21	Indians v. Reds UNDER 7.5		6-3	Loss	-122	6 h 30 m	Show
Shane Bieber showed why he captured Cy Young Award honors last season throwing a 3-hitter for nine innings in a 2-0 victory against the White Sox during his last start this past Tuesday. I don't see the Reds doing much against Bieber. The Indians rank 26th in runs and 29th in batting. So Reds southpaw Wade Miley is facing a way below average offense as he looks to continue his sharp start having allowed only four hits and no runs during his first two starts spanning 11 innings. Cleveland is averaging only 2.3 runs during its last six games.
04-18-21	Indians -151 v. Reds		6-3	Win	100	5 h 29 m	Show
Shane Bieber. Any other questions why I like the Indians? If Jacob deGrom isn't the best pitcher in baseball, Bieber could be. The Indians are turning to Bieber to prevent getting swept by the Reds. Bieber has a 2.11 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. The Reds are due for serious offensive regression ranking first in the majors in runs and homers. Their offense is good, but not nearly this good. Wade Miley is set to oppose Bieber. He's also due for regression - heavy regression having thrown 11 scoreless innings to begin the season. Miley has never opened with three victories in a row during his 10 years in the majors. He has a 4.60 ERA in seven career starts against the Indians, with the last one being in 2019. I don't like the Indians' offense. But they should be able to cobble together a few runs against Miley, which is all Bieber and a strong bullpen backend would need.
04-17-21	Astros -130 v. Mariners		1-0	Win	100	15 h 14 m	Show
Minus starters Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and DH Yordan Alvarez, the Astros are at a bargain price against the Mariners because of those absences in a pitching matchup of Zack Greinke versus Chris Flexen. Greinke isn't the dominant force of years past, but he's a solid "B" tier pitcher. I consider Flexen to be an "F" tier pitcher. He gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Twins during his last start this past Sunday. Flexen sat out last season. He had a 6.59 ERA with the Mets in 2019 and a 12.79 ERA in limited innings with the Mets in 2018. The Astros rank in the top-five in numerous key offensive categories. They have the depth to overcome the loss of Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez especially facing such a weak starter and a bad Mariners bullpen that carries a high fatigue rating. This is Seattle's fifth game in four days. The Mariners just got into Seattle on Friday after sweeping a doubleheader from the Orioles on Thursday and then nipped the Astros in a come-from-behind victory on Friday. The Astros were idle this past Thursday so their bullpen is relatively fresh. Despite Friday's defeat, the Astros still have beaten the Mariners in 40 of the past 55 games.
04-17-21	Rays -104 v. Yankees		6-3	Win	100	9 h 32 m	Show
Unless they're playing the Orioles, the Yankees just aren't that good. Unfortunately for the Yankees they're not going against the Orioles today but the Rays. Tampa Bay has beaten New York in 13 of its last 16 regular-season games, including 8-2 on Friday. I expect the Rays' dominance in this series to continue today since they are pitching Tyler Glasnow. He's in the argument for best pitcher in the American League with a 0.46 ERA. He has a lifetime 1.54 ERA at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are not playing well, losers of of six of their last eight games. They've allowed 20 runs in their last three games and haven't scored more than four runs during their last four games. New York is starting Jordan Montgomery. The Rays just saw him six days ago and got to him for four runs in five innings. Montgomery has a 5.54 ERA lifetime against Tampa Bay in seven starts.
04-16-21	Astros -109 v. Mariners		5-6	Loss	-109	17 h 30 m	Show
Normally the Astros would be priced much higher against the Mariners and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. But the Astros have three starters on the injured list - Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and DH Yordan Alvarez. I still like Houston, though, to beat Seattle and the price is right to get involved. The Astros have a lot of depth to offset three starters being sidelined. They rank in the top-four in the major offensive categories. Kikuchi is pitching better so far this season than in his two previous seasons, but he has a terrible history versus Houston with a 6.46 ERA in 23 2/3 innings spanning five career starts. The Astros have won 69 percent of their past 75 road games against a lefty starter. The situation also shapes up nicely for the Astros. The Mariners had to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast after sweeping a road doubleheader from the Orioles on Thursday. Seattle has played four games during the last three days. Unlike the Mariners, the Astros will have a fresh bullpen in support of starter Jose Urquidy. Houston was idle on Thursday. The Astros are 42-11 the last 53 times following an off day. Houston also has dominated the Mariners winning 40 of the past 54 games.
04-16-21	Tigers v. A's -1.5		0-3	Win	111	17 h 30 m	Show
The A's took care of the Tigers, 8-4, on Thursday and I see them beating Detroit by multiple runs again today. The Tigers are 1-8 in their last nine games at Oakland Coliseum. Oakland is riding a five-game win streak. The A's are swinging hot bats averaging 7.4 runs in their last five games. Oakland has a huge pitching edge in this matchup with Jose Urena facing Frankie Montas. Urena has an 8.22 ERA in starts against the Indians and Twins with a 2.09 WHIP. Detroit has the worst bullpen in the majors with a 6.65 ERA. Montas displayed signs of reverting back to his excellent form of two seasons ago during his last start when he held the Astros to one earned run in six innings. The Tigers are below average offensively ranking 21st in runs and batting average.
04-16-21	Braves v. Cubs OVER 7.5		5-2	Loss	-120	12 h 37 m	Show
Two mediocre pitchers. Wind not being a big factor. So why a total this low at Wrigley Field? It's not the Braves' fault. They are averaging six runs a game during their past seven games. Ronald Acuna is the hottest hitter in baseball batting .442 with seven homers and 14 RBI's. The problem is the Cubs. Despite a respectable lineup on paper, Chicago is last in the majors in runs and batting average. This isn't going to continue, though. The Cubs have too many good veteran hitters and Kris Bryant and Javier Baez already are showing signs of having bounce-back seasons. Baez has three homers. The Cubs ran into some tough Brewers pitching in their last series. Chicago was idle on Thursday. I see the Cubs coming back refreshed and in attack mode against Drew Smyly and a Braves bullpen that is proving to be overrated. Smyly has a 5.73 ERA in two starts. He's already permitted three homers in 11 innings and has a 61 percent hard-hit rate. The Braves should continue their high scoring facing Zach Davies. who in two starts has an 11.05 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. The wind will be blowing in, but at less than 10 mph.
04-15-21	Tigers v. A's -1.5		4-8	Win	125	9 h 17 m	Show
A lot of teams have trouble playing the A's in Oakland. So it's no surprise Detroit is one such club. The Tigers are 1-7 in their last eight visits to Oakland. The Tigers are ripe for a letdown after sweeping a three-game series against the COVID-19-ravaged Astros. The pitching matchup is lefty Tarik Skubal, who has a 7.71 ERA this season after a pair of starts versus the Indians, against Sean Manaea, who is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers. The A's are 40-14 the past 54 games when facing a lefty starter.
04-12-21	Rangers v. Rays -1.5	Top	0-1	Loss	-107	15 h 50 m	Show
I like Tyler Glasnow. We all like Tyler Glasnow. Now here's a chance to back him at home at a low price via the run line in what should be an easy victory for Tampa Bay. Glasnow is in the argument for third-best pitcher in the American League behind Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber. He should dominate a weak-hitting Rangers club that has scored six runs in their last four games. Glasnow has given up one run in 12 innings that season with 15 strikeouts. The rebuilding Rangers are going with prospect Dane Dunning. He pitched well in his Rangers debut this past Tuesday holding Toronto to one run in five innings. Now, though, opponents have film and a more detailed scouting report on the right-handed Dunning. Tampa Bay is 42-11 in its last 53 home games when facing a righty starter. The Rangers have played their last six games at home where they were the only team in the majors allowing 100 percent fan capacity. Now the Rangers go to a tough and unusual venue, Tropicana Park. Dunning isn't the only young player on the Rangers. So I can easily envision the lowly Rangers struggling in this foreign setting against a much superior opponent. Each of the Rays' last three victories have been by more than one run.
04-10-21	Angels v. Blue Jays -120		1-15	Win	100	16 h 21 m	Show
Face it. Jose Quintana is a below average starter. Constant ERA's in the high 4.00's show that. The White Sox and Cubs have moved on from him and probably the Angels will, too. Quintana wasn't good in his Angels debut giving up four runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Astros this past Monday. I much prefer Steven Matz, who was quite the opposite of Quintana in his season debut. Matz allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings to the Rangers this past Monday, carrying over from his fine spring performances. The Angels took advantage of Toronto's lack of pitching depth to beat the Blue Jays, 7-1, on Friday. The Angels, though, are a weak road club, losers of 40 of the past 59 away contests.
04-10-21	Red Sox v. Orioles +121		6-4	Loss	-100	14 h 48 m	Show
It's deja vu all over again with this pitching matchup. Garrett Richards and lefty Bruce Zimmermann squared off six days ago in Boston and the Orioles smashed the Red Sox, 11-3. Now the same two pitchers go at it in Baltimore. The Red Sox don't appear any better than the Orioles this season and Richards hasn't shown anything. So give me the home 'dog. Richards couldn't last three innings against the Orioles this past Sunday giving up six runs on seven hits in two-plus innings. The same command issues that plagued him during spring training weren't resolved. Zimmermann, on the other hand, threw six solid innings against the Red Sox giving up three runs on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts. Boston is 8-19 in its last 27 games facing a lefty starter, including 1-2 this season. The Orioles hold a bullpen edge, too, with Cesar Valdez emerging as an early-season star with two saves and a win. Valdez has five strikeouts and one walk in 4 1/3 innings.

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