These two teams met twice during the regulation season. There were 127 and 122 points scored during those two games.

Now Illinois-Chicago and Missouri State are meeting again with the stakes much higher - the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. So the defensive intensity is going to be even greater.

The game is being played at a neutral site, Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This venue is set up for hockey not basketball. Historically there have been a lot of Unders because of the tough shooting background.

Illinois Chicago ranks 289th in scoring, 315th in field goal percentage and 336th in free throw percentage. Missouri State has the 32nd best defense in the country holding foes to 63.7 points a game.

The Bears, though, average only 65.8 points per game and are even worse from the foul line than Illinois-Chicago. No Missouri Valley team plays at a slower tempo either than Missouri State.

The Spurs are playing their first home game since Feb. 3. Their season-long nine-game road trip finally has finished.

So I'm looking for a loosely-played, up-tempo game.

The Pacers certainly should produce their share of points. They rank 12th in scoring without the benefit of getting to play too many games against weak defensive opponents from the Western Conference.

Indiana is averaging 123.3 points in regulation during its last three games against much stronger defenses than the Spurs, while getting high level play from Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner. San Antonio is the worst defensive team in the NBA ranking in the bottom in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

The Pacers, though, have a bottom-10 defense. The Spurs should be motivated to put on a show being back home and having just ended their 16-game losing streak.

There were 271 points scored in the first meeting, won by the Spurs, 137-134. It won't take nearly that many to get this total Over.

Rider is a much better team than St. Peter's. Rider is 12-6 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference while St. Peter's is 6-12 in league.

It's not just the conference records either. The Broncos buried the Peacocks, 82-61, at home on Feb. 3.

Both teams are tough defensively. But St. Peter's can't score. The Peacocks average 61.3 points a game, which ranks 354th. They also are 362nd in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point shooting percentage in addition to being well below average in free throw shooting.

I'm not putting any stock in St. Peter's being home either. The Peacocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests while Rider has covered its last five away games.

After winning three in a row, the Lakers lost LeBron James and then lost to the Grizzlies, 121-109, last night in their first game without James.

James remains out. But I believe the Lakers bounce back in this revenge spot against the Thunder. The Lakers have had a game to adjust to James' absence. Oklahoma City also is without its own LeBron James with All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined. He's missed the Thunder's past three games due to an abdominal strain and a right ankle injury. Oklahoma City is 0-3 in those games losing by nine points to the Suns and suffering losses to the Kings by nine and six points.

The Thunder have allowed 123, 124 and 124 points in their past three games. LA is the better defensive team.

The teams met on Feb. 7. James broke the NBA's all-time scoring record in that game, but the Thunder won. The Lakers haven't forgotten. They are a better all-around team following the trade deadline minus Russell Westbrook and with the addition of several good rotation players. 

If you're into bad Atlantic 10 Conference games then this is a good matchup. I'm involved because I don't believe St. Joe's should be a home 'dog to Richmond.

The Spiders could have the worst offense in the A-10. They also are terrible on the road failing to cover in 10 of their last 11 away games. Overall, Richmond is 2-10 ATS in its past dozen games. 

St. Joe's, by contrast, is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Hawks outscore the Spiders and do a good job of not turning the ball over. They often are undervalued, like this time, going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. 

The Big South Conference Tournament isn't exactly a big deal. But good spots can be found. This is one of them as High Point is playing much better than Charleston Southern and is the superior team so the price certainly is right to back the Panthers.

High Point brings momentum into the tournament winning four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS.

That's not the case for Charleston Southern. The Buccaneers are 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.

Charleston Southern is the worst defensive team in the Big South. How bad defensively are the Buccaneers? They rank 304th in scoring defense nationally, 328th in defensive field goal percentage and 330th in 3-point defense.

The Panthers are 9-2 ATS the past 11 times when facing a below .400 opponent, which the 9-20 Buccaneers are. High Point beat Charleston Southern, 81-73, at home when the teams last played on Feb. 6.

The total has dropped but it still is worth going Under. 

Much has changed since the Lakers nipped the Grizzlies, 122-121, last month. Memphis is playing much stronger defense now. The Lakers have altered their roster. Russell Westbrook and his fast-tempo style have departed. LeBron James is out with a foot injury. D'Angelo Russell isn't likely to play either due to an ankle sprain. 

Memphis is giving up an average of 105.1 points during its last seven games. That low figure shrinks even more to 102.8 if you toss out the 119 points the Grizzlies surrendered to the Celtics, the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA, four games ago. Memphis held the powerful Nuggets to 94 points in its last game this past Saturday. That was 23 points below the Nuggets' season average. 

The Lakers have held their last three opponents to an average of 107 points. Those foes were the Pelicans, Warriors and Mavericks, three pretty good offenses. 

Both teams have games on Wednesday. So if the game were to get out of hand star players such as Ja Morant and Anthony Davis could see reduced minutes. 

This line is out of whack. Both teams are 20-9 and battling for third place in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State State was a three-point home favorite against Akron on Jan. 6 and won, 70-63.

Now look at the line.

This should be a very close game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals win again. They are in better current form although they got a jolt in their last game losing as road chalk to Eastern Michigan this past Saturday. Before that defeat, though, Ball State had won seven of its past eight games.

The Cardinals should be highly-focused following that wake-up call. They are 16-5 ATS (76 percent) the past 21 times following a loss. Ball State also has covered four of the last five times against opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

Akron, by contrast, is 1-7 ATS the past eight times when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Zips' 14-1 home record looks impressive, but they have a losing ATS mark on the season and are 3-3 during their last six games.

The teams have similar statistics. Ball State, however, ranks 43rd nationally in 3-point percentage. That's nearly 100 teams better than Akron in that key category.

It's only late February. But this matchup has the makings of a playoff game with all the defensive intensity that comes with that.

New York has won five in a row. Boston is 9-2 in its last 11 games since losing, 120-117 in overtime, to the Knicks on the road a month ago. There were 220 points scored in regulation during that game.

Both teams are underrated defensively and have been playing well on the defensive end.

The Celtics are giving up an average of 104.3 points during their last nine games if you discount their overtime games. Boston ranks in the top-eight in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The Knicks have held their last seven opponents to an average of 105.1 points, not including their 126-120 win against the Jazz. New York ranks ninth in scoring defense and are in the top four in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

A hidden key to this Under is center Mitchell Robinson being back healthy for New York.

Robinson is a premier shot-blocker - the only shot-blocking threat the Knicks have - and New York's second-best rebounder. His presence strongly fortifies the Knicks' front-court defense.

Robinson has been back for two games now. In those two games, the Knicks held the Wizards to 109 points - which is four points below Washington's season scoring average - and the Pelicans to 106 points, which is eight points under New Orleans' season scoring average.

This is an opening round game of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. Both teams are each 17-14. But sources tell me Queens is the right side. Early money has come on Queens, too. Queens defeated Florida Gulf Coast, 84-82, when the teams met late last month. Queens outscored Florida Gulf Coast by seven points in the second half. 

The Warriors are 23-7 at home. They are without Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins. They didn't need those two in their last home game, a 116-101, win against the Rockets this past Friday.

The Timberwolves are a step up from the lowly Rockets. But Minnesota isn't good enough on the road to pull off the upset here. The Timberwolves are 11-17 on the road. They have a key injury themselves with Karl-Anthony Towns out.

Golden State has won six of its past seven home games. The Warriors are primed to make a move down the stretch. I don't expect them to lose at home to a mediocre Timberwolves team.

Even given home-court advantage, I don't think Stanford should even be favored against Washington let alone laying mid-sized points like this.

So I'm on the Huskies. Washington is 16-13 and 8-10 in the Pac-12. Stanford is 11-17 and 5-12 in the Pac 12.

Washington is playing much better than the Cardinal, too. The Huskies have won three in a row. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Stanford has lost five of its last six games, including the past three.

The teams met on Jan. 12 in Seattle and the Huskies easily won, 86-69. The Cardinal could connect on just nine of 29 3-point attempts. It wasn't a fluke. The Huskies rate seventh in the country in 3-point defense while Stanford is 306th in 3-point defense.

The Heat are in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. They were embarrassed by the Bucks, 128-99, last night in Milwaukee.

Charlotte, on the other hand, is fat and happy having won three straight after beating the Timberwolves, 121-113, on the road last night.

Miami is the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 28th defensively allowing 10 more points per game than the Heat.

The Hornets usually fail to step up against better teams, too, with a 12-25 record versus above .500 opponents.

I find this line to be way off. Utah Valley is the best team in the Western Athletic Conference at 12-3. Abilene Christian, by contrast, is 7-9 in league.

The Wolverines shouldn't lack motivation after getting upset on the road by Tarleton State in their last game. Utah Valley had won five in a row until that defeat. The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 away games.

The 21-7 Wolverines are a better rebounding team than Abilene Christian and much better in defensive field goal percentage. Utah Valley ranks fifth in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Abilene Christian ranks 353rd.

The Wildcats are 4-8 in their last 12 games.

It's not too much to ask of Utah Valley just to win the game straight-up so I'm backing the Wolverines on the money line.

Just three games ago, Nevada handled Fresno State winning, 77-66, as a nine-point home favorite. Fresno State is playing better and is home. But the point spread is still too short.

Fresno State only averages 61.7 points. That's 351st. Nevada should reach 70 points just like it did two weeks ago against the Bulldogs. Fresno State is 1-6 when giving up 70-plus points.

The Bulldogs' key is their pressure defense. They rank second in the Mountain West Conference in creating takeaways. Nevada, however, ranks 27th in the nation in fewest turnover percentage. They turned the ball over just 10 times in the first meeting against the Bulldogs.

I want the Warriors going for me after they lost on the road to the Lakers last night in their first game back from All-Star break. Golden State is home where it has played far better with a 22-7 mark.

The Warriors also have the advantage of having had a game following All-Star break. Houston's last game was nine days ago.

The Rockets entered the break having lost seven in a row. Their last two games - both on the road - were a 19-point loss to the 76ers and a 37-point defeat to the Thunder.

Golden State is the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA at 118.5 points a game. The Rockets rank 26th defensively and 29th in scoring.

Stephen Curry remains out, but Houston is minus its two leading scorers, Kevin Porter Jr. (foot) and Jalen Green (groin).

Defense and a 7-23 road record have been the killers for Golden State. But the Warriors are home here and have made a commitment and priority to playing stronger defense having had ample time during the All-Star break. It's not like the Warriors aren't capable. They had the No. 2 defense last season.

These teams just met three games ago. The final in that one was Lakers, 109-103, for a total of 212 points.

I'm expecting another low-scoring game this time around, too.

The Warriors were the No. 2 ranked defense last season. Now they rank 27th defensively. They are due to start playing much defense. I see that starting now, following All-Star break, where intensity increases.

The Lakers are breaking in five new rotation players and no longer have Russell Westbrook, who was good for the Over. So they are in transition. They also draw the Warriors minus Stephen Curry.

Neither team has played in more than a week so there could be a rust factor, too.

The Mavericks are an auto-fade when laying these kinds of points. Dallas is a mind-boggling 4-20-1 ATS (17 percent) when favored by more than five points this season.

San Antonio nearly upset Dallas in the first meeting. The Spurs lost, 126-125, at home on Dec. 31.

The Spurs are on their rodeo trip, but will be rested following the week-long All-Star break. Gregg Popovich should have his team well prepared for this in-state, division rivalry matchup.

This will be just the third time Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic will be playing together. So the Mavericks aren't fully in sync yet with their new lineup.

After two close calls in their last two games, look for Virginia to cover this point spread margin with a double-digit victory.

Boston College is in a letdown spot after an upset road win against Florida State.

The Cavaliers have dominated this series winning 10 of the last 11 times, including 76-57 on Jan. 28.

This is the most points Iowa State has gotten all season. T.J. Otzelberger could be the best coach in the country. So I'm going to accept this many points.

Texas is a top-25 offense. Iowa State is a top 15-defense. I trust Otzelberger and the Cyclones' defense to keep this close.

Texas was fortunate to get past Oklahoma, 85-83 in overtime, this past Saturday as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-21 (25 percent) ATS the last 28 times following a victory.

Iowa State handled the Longhorns at home. The Cyclones beat them, 78-67, on Jan. 17. They can hang here.

I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game than the first meeting, which Marquette won, 69-58, back on Dec. 16. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton's leading scorer, missed that game. The total on that matchup was 153 1/2.

Early money on this total has been to the Under, knocking it down to where I see value going Over.

Marquette is the 19th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.7 points. The Golden Eagles rank fifth in the country in field goal percentage.

Creighton averages 76.3 points a game, which ranks in the top 70.

Since upsetting Tennessee, Missouri has lost and failed to cover its last two games. Mississippi State is just as good - if not better - than the Tigers. So I'll take the Bulldogs getting this many points.

The Bulldogs have come on after a slow SEC start to go 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven league games, including posting road victories against South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi during their last three SEC away games. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their past five road contests.

The teams met on Feb. 4 and Mississippi State held Missouri to a season-low in points in a 63-52 home victory. Take away their victory against Tennessee and the Tigers would be 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

There is one team in the Big Ten Conference who is an autofade - Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-13 in the league. They haven't been competitively on the road lately.

The Gophers lost by 35 points to Rutgers and by 20 points to Northwestern in their last two away games. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road contests. 

I see this as a kill spot for the host Illini. Minnesota has lost nine in a row. It's also a difficult situational spot for the Gophers as because of previous postponements this will be just their third game in 16 days. 

Delaware State defeated South Carolina State, 88-85, in overtime on the road in the first meeting on Jan. 23. Now the Bulldogs have to travel to Dover to play the Hornets.

I like Delaware State's chances at this number considering South Carolina State has lost 11 consecutive road games. The Bulldogs have lost their past three away contests by an average of 18.6 points.

The Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. They give up nine fewer points per game than South Carolina State.

I find this line short so I'm backing Howard, which has won nine in a row. The Bison have covered all but one of these games during their win streak.

Morgan State is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 home games. The Bears have failed to cover in five of their last six games.

This has been a road team series with the visitor cashing seven of the last eight times.

Boise State is very tough at home. UNLV is a sliding team with a bad recent history against the Broncos.

So I find this a simple choice: Lay the points with Boise State.

The 20-6 Broncos have won their last 11 home games with all but one of those victories coming by nine or more points. They are 10-3 in the Mountain West Conference.

UNLV is 16-10 with a 5-9 Mountain West record. The Rebels have lost three of their past four games, including home losses to San Jose State and Fresno State as mid-sized favorites. They are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games.

Boise State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Broncos have held opponents to fewer than 60 points a game when playing at home, while averaging more than 74 points shooting 49 percent from the floor and 77 percent from the foul line.

The Broncos have dominated the Rebels winning the past six meetings. This includes an 84-66 road win on Jan. 11.

Going to the added board for this one. 

Both teams are playing well. But I see Penn having the greater urgency being in revenge mode and trailing Yale by one game in the Ivy League standing.

The Quakers have won their last five games. They are 4-1-1 ATS during their past six games and have the best player on the court, Jordan Dingle. He leads the Ivy League in scoring by a wide margin at 24 points per game.

Penn has revenge for a 70-63 loss to Yale earlier this season. I make the game pick, so getting this many points is a bonus and puts me in play.

Maybe it's because Southeast Missouri State has lost three in a row. But I find this line to be well short of my power rankings for these two teams.

The Redhawks are at least a dozen points better than Eastern Illinois given home-court advantage. SE Missouri State has won the last five in the series, including defeating the Panthers, 79-68, on the road Jan. 28.

SE Missouri State is in a five-way tie for second place in the Ohio Valley Conference at 8-6. Eastern Illinois is 9-18 overall and 5-9 in the OVC.

The Redhawks lead the conference in scoring, field goal percentage and have the best turnover margin. They have the best player on the court in Phillip Russell, who leads the Ohio Valley Conference in scoring at 19 points per game while also dishing off 5.2 assists per game.

I don't see Eastern Illinois staying with SE Missouri State. The Panthers average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank last in the OVC in free throw percentage, rebounding margin and 3-pointers made.

The Bucks have won 11 in a row. The Bulls, by contrast, are reeling, losing and failing to cover in their last five games.

Milwaukee didn't play well in its last game, having to go to overtime at home to dispatch a short-handed Celtics squad. This is the Bucks' final game before the All-Star break. They won't play again in eight days. So expect a strong, focused effort from the Bucks, especially in revenge mode. The Bulls won the last meeting, 119-113 in overtime, on Dec. 29

That should ensure a double-digit Milwaukee victory. The Bulls also won't have their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan. He's out with a quad injury.

Brooklyn is ahead of Miami in the standings. But the Heat are the better team right now.

The Nets are going through a transformation with a retooled roster. Brooklyn won 27 of its first 40 games. Then Durant got hurt. Since then, the Net are 6-11.

Brooklyn has four new people in its rotation learning life without Durant and Kyrie Irving. while also finding out Ben Simmons is nearly worthless.

The Nets are averaging just 102 points in their last two games. Miami is the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA.

I am getting behind New Mexico. The Lobos are in stop-the-pain mode having dropped three in a row. This is their time to get right hosting 7-17 Wyoming, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference.

Wyoming has lost and failed to cover in its last three games suffering double-digit defeats to San Jose State, UNLV and Boise State during this span. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. New Mexico is 5-1 ATS the last six times hosting opponents with a road percentage of less than .400.

The Cowboys rank 249th in scoring defense and 311th in defensive field goal percentage. That's bad news going against the high-scoring Lobos. New Mexico averages 81.6 points a game, which ranks 16th in the nation. The Lobos also are 11th in the country in field goal percentage.

Expect a playoff type atmosphere - and playoff-like defense - when the Bucks host the Celtics. These are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference with the Celtics ahead of the Bucks by 1 1/2 games.

It's easy to think offense with these teams that feature superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum. Both teams, though, are very strong defensively and are in good defensive form.

Boston ranks sixth in scoring defense, seventh in defensive field goal percentage and ninth in 3-point defense. The Celtics have held their last six opponents to an average of 104.1 points. The Under has cashed 10 of the last 11 times the Celtics have been on the road taking on a foe with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Celtics have consistently gone Under away from home - 20-8-1 (71 percent) - during their past 29 away contests.

The Bucks rank seventh in scoring defense, second in defensive field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point defense. They have permitted just 106.6 points during their last three games. Milwaukee draws the Celtics when Boston is missing injured Jaylen Brown, its second-leading scorer at 26.5 points. The Celtics also could be down Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Smart leaving them thin in the backcourt.

Milwaukee hasn't played since beating the Clippers, 119-106, at LA this past Friday. So the Bucks could be rusty. They will be prepared, though, with this extended rest. Note that the Under has cashed the past six times the Bucks have played on three or more days of rest.

Illinois is stepping up, winning eight of its last 10 games. But Penn State is tough at home and this is a circle-the-wagons game for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State has dropped four in a row. The latest being a loss - but a cover - in a road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Nittany Lions have won seven of their last eight home games. During this span, the Nittany Lions have defeated Michigan, Indiana and Iowa. Their lone home defeat during this time frame was to Wisconsin in overtime.

The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS following a loss.

Penn State should play the Illini with confidence. The Nittany Lions won the first matchup, winning by 15 points on the road in mid-December.

Kyrie Irving teaming up with Luka Doncic to make his Dallas home debut is the major storyline here.

What's not in the headlines is this being a dangerous spot for Dallas. The Mavericks last played at home 11 days ago. This marks their fourth game in six days and third game in four days. Irving is going to be a distraction. So the Mavericks' concentration level could be off.

Minnesota just got blown out, 128-107, by the Grizzlies this past Friday. This is the conclusion of the Timberwolves' four-game road trip. Minnesota had the weekend to rest up and prepare for this matchup. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Timberwolves, who are 6-0 ATS following a loss.

The Timberwolves upgraded themselves, too, at the trade deadline picking up veteran point guard Mike Conley.

Dallas has the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 22-34-2. The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when laying seven or more points.

It's strange to see a total this low on a Spurs game. You have to go back to Dec. 29 to find the last time there was this low of a total on a San Antonio game.

It's understandable, though, because the Spurs' opponent is Cleveland. The Cavaliers have the best defense in the league.

The Spurs have the worst defense in the NBA ranking last in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. San Antonio gives up an average of 122.8 points per game.

So why get involved in a total where you have the top defensive club versus the worst defensive team?

Because I see this matchup having garbage time written all over it. The Cavaliers are averaging 119 points in their last five games, discounting their last game against the Bulls.

Cleveland has a much bigger game on deck, playing at the 76ers on Wednesday before heading into the All-Star break. So the Cavaliers' starters could see reduced minutes, especially in a projected blowout.

The Spurs could take advantage of Cleveland's bench players to help this total go Over. The Over has cashed in 13 of San Antonio's past 17 road games.

The Hawks want to make a mark before All-Star break hits. The Hornets can't wait until the All-Star break. 

Given how bad SMU is on the road, I find this line to be short. Wichita State is the superior team and home. That's huge because SMU is 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS away from home this season.

The Mustangs average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank among the bottom 50 teams in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point shooting.

Wichita State is 14th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage.

The Shockers have defeated the Mustangs six consecutive times, including 73-65 on the road last month.

This may be the only time I write this but the Pistons are fat and happy. Detroit won its battle of terrible teams defeating the Spurs, 138-131 in double overtime, at home two days ago.

Prior to that victory, the Pistons had lost 12 of the previous 15 games. I made the mistake of actually backing the Pistons two games ago when they were receiving 13 points against the Cavaliers, who were missing their star backcourt players, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Cleveland rolled past Detroit, 113-85, at home.

The Pistons are 0-7 ATS the past seven times following a win.

Toronto is the flip side. The Raptors blew a 13-point fourth-quarter lead at home to the Jazz this past Friday. Toronto had won three in a row prior to that defeat.

The Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home contests when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

This spot sets up for a Toronto blowout.

Much respect to Northwestern for its 17-7 season. But I don't see the Wildcats keeping this one close against top-ranked 23-2 Purdue. 
The Boilermakers haven't lost to Northwestern in nine years, winning the past 11 games. 

Purdue has too much balance and depth for the Wildcats. Led by 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, the Boilermakers are serious contenders to win the national championship. Northwestern is nowhere near that level. 

Beating disappointing Wisconsin and Ohio State, which has lost 10 of its last 11 games, during the past week on the road does not elevate the Wildcats into elite atmosphere. 

Hawaii has the better record. Hawaii is the better team. The key question is can the Rainbow Warriors cover this number?

I say they can. Home-court is huge here. Hawaii is 15-3 at home. Cal State-Fullerton is 3-10 on the road. The Rainbow Warriors have won their home games by an average of nearly eight points per game. This has been a home team series with the host covering five of the past six times.

Cal-State Fullerton doesn't have enough scoring to stay within this number. Hawaii ranks 19th in the country defensively allowing 62 points a game. The Titans average fewer than 69 points per game.

The Rainbow Warriors also have revenge motivation. The Titans beat them, 79-72 in overtime, when they hosted them on Jan. 7. Hawaii plays much better at home.

This spot sets up for the home Knicks catching the Jazz playing for the fourth time in six days and without rest.

Utah upset the Raptors in Toronto last night. The Knicks also played last night - and blew a 12-point third-quarter lead in a 119-108 loss to the 76ers.

New York is 20-7-1 ATS the past 28 times when playing the second of back-to-back games.

Russell Westbrook may or may not make his debut for the retooled Jazz. It's a major transition for the Jazz if ball hog Westbrook is in the lineup.

The Knicks have a huge historical edge, too, when hosting Utah covering 13 of the last 17 times at home in the series.

Nevada is extremely tough at home. I know first hand having covered games at Lawlor Events Center on the Reno campus during my sportswriting days. I don't see Fresno State staying within double-digits on the road against the Wolf Pack.

The Wolf Pack average nearly 79 points at home, outscoring  opponents by an average of 14 points. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Lawlor. 

Fresno State doesn't have the scoring to keep up. The Bulldogs average just 62 points a game, which ranks 353rd in the country. They are terrible at making 3-pointers and bad at defending against 3-pointers. 

The Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have failed to cover in nine of their past 13 away contests. I'm not fooled by Fresno State's two game win streak, upsetting UNLV and defeating San Jose State. During their previous three games before those wins, the Bulldogs lost to Wyoming on the road, fell to Utah State at home and lost to Boise State on the road. They averaged just 56 points during those three matchups. 

Nevada has won and covered three in a row. In their last four home games, the Wolf Pack beat Utah State by 15 points, defeated New Mexico by three in overtime, knocked off San Diego State by nine and rolled past Air Force by 20 despite being in a letdown spot. Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State are far superior to Fresno State. 

The Wolf Pack are 20-8 ATS the past 28 times at home when going against a foe with a losing road record. 

Kyrie Irving is with the Mavericks now. I doubt Luka Doncic plays, though. He's been out with a bruised heel. But even if Doncic suits up, I still like the Kings to beat Dallas at home here. There's going to be a transition period for Irving and Doncic. I'm not convinced the two can effectively co-exist. 

The Kings have their own two stars - De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who leads the NBA in double/doubles. 

Dallas is playing its fourth road game in six days. The Mavericks are off consecutive upset victories against the Jazz and Clippers, both achieved minus Doncic. 

The Mavericks, however, are 8-20-1 ATS following a victory. They also have the worst ATS mark in the NBA despite those two wins at 21-33-2 and are six games below .500 on the road.

The Kings are 16-11 at home. They have the sixth-best ATS record in the league at 29-24-1 and are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times hosting Dallas. 

Even with key players out, you can't fault the Celtics if they overlook Charlotte. The Hornets have lost five in a row. The Celtics are off a highly-satisfying home victory against the 76ers this past Wednesday, beating Philadelphia while playing shorthanded. After this game, the Celtics host the Grizzlies on Sunday and then play at the Bucks on Tuesday.

So it's not an ideal situational spot for the Celtics to be highly motivated for this weak opponent.

The Hornets, though, have triple revenge. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS the last six times they've hosted a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

Boston also is going to be without All-Star Jaylen Brown and ace defender Marcus Smart. The Celtics also could be minus Jayson Tatum. He's questionable with a non-COVID illness.

The 76ers are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of two in a row. Both of those losses came on the road - to the Knicks this past Sunday and to the Celtics two days ago. The 76ers blew an early 21-point lead against New York and did not play well versus Boston.

Now, though, the 76ers are back home where they are 20-8. Philadelphia has covered 17 of its past 23 (74 percent) home contests.

I trust the 76ers to get the job down at home against a foe they are at least one level higher than.

The Lakers have had some great teams. This isn't one of them. Acquiring D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt while getting rid of Russell Westbrook should help the Lakers. Just not right now for this matchup.

The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games, including the past eight, in compiling the third-best record in the NBA at 37-17. The Bucks also have the fourth-best mark against the spread mark (ATS) at 29-23-2. They rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Milwaukee's Big Three of Giannis Antetokounmpo - solidly in the MVP running - Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are all healthy. The Bucks are well-rested, too, following their 127-108 road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Monday.

The Lakers are always going to get respect from the oddsmaker because they are such a public team and have superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. James broke the NBA's all-time scoring record two days ago at home. That drew the headlines. Oh, yeah, the Lakers lost that game to the Thunder as a 6 1/2-point favorite.

LA surrendered 133 points to the Thunder. Lack of defense has been a problem all season for the Lakers, who rank 28th in scoring defense permitting 118.6 points a game.

Davis has returned from a foot injury. But he hasn't sparked anything while playing second fiddle to James. LA is 3-4 in seven games since Davis has been back.

I find this another case of the Lakers getting too much respect on the line. They didn't make the playoffs last season. They aren't on track to make the postseason this season with a 25-30 record that puts them 13th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference.

The Lakers' ATS mark is similar to their won-lost record at 25-29-1. They are merely a .500 team at home.

LA doesn't have a good record either when stepping up in competition going 8-18-1 ATS the past 27 times versus above .500 opponents.

Milwaukee has revenge motivation for a 133-129 home loss to the Lakers on Dec. 2. The Bucks have covered in four of their last five road games against the Lakers.

Maybe I should drink some sake because I feel like a kamikaze pilot attacking a Kings-Rockets total by going Under. 

Sacramento just beat Houston, 140-120, on the road this past Monday. Now the Rockets host the Kings again in the rematch. 

The Kings lead the NBA in scoring at 119.3 points per game. So why go Under? 

I see the Rockets going all out defensively following that embarrassment and with Houston coach Stephen Silas ripping his team and questioning their defensive effort and intensity. Silas was understandably livid after that humiliation. 

The Kings shot 58.4 percent from the floor in that 20-point victory. The Rockets aren't that bad ranking 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Sacramento also made 21 of 41 3-pointers in that game for 51 percent. Sacramento shoots 36.8 percent from 3-point range.

Believe it or not, the Under has cashed in 20 of the Kings' last 28 away games. 

Sacramento is below average defensively ranking 21st, which isn't horrible. But keep in mind the Rockets rank 29th in scoring and last in field goal percentage. They have gone Under six of the past eight times following a double-digit home loss. 

No surprise that Memphis ranks 25th in scoring averaging 80.2 points. The Tigers have Kendric Davis, play fast and feature a deep bench. They are averaging 86 points in regulation during their past three games.

It's South Florida who has caught the oddsmaker off guard with its up-tempo style. The Bulls don't play slow anymore. It's not a fluke that the Over has cashed in 17 of their last 21 games. The Over also has cashed in nine of South Florida's past 12 home games.

There is a blueprint for this matchup. It came on Dec. 29 in Memphis when the Tigers hosted South Florida. There were 179 points scored in Memphis' 93-86 victory. Neither team could stop the other especially on the defensive glass.

The Bulls aren't going to back down from Memphis especially in revenge mode and playing at home. The Tigers should be pumped for a big scoring performance, too, after having their five-game win streak snapped by underdog Tulane at home this past Saturday in an overtime loss.

Due to playing the Timberwolves at Minnesota on less than 24 hours rest this past Sunday, the Nuggets held out a number of key players, including Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.

The result was a 128-98 Timberwolves' victory. Welcome to today's NBA where teams combat unfair schedule spots by resting their best players, thus conceding the game before it even begins. The Nuggets had just beaten the Hawks this past Saturday night for their third straight win before deciding to give up against Minnesota the following day.

This sets up a day of reckoning for the Timberwolves here. And I like the Nuggets, who will be back to full strength, to exact vengeance.

Denver is 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a loss.

The Timberwolves now are facing a fatigue factor - playing for the seven time in 12 days and third in five days - while missing players. Minnesota is minus injured Karl-Anthony Towns and suspended Austin Rivers. Kyle Anderson could be out, too, with a back injury. He's missed the last two games.

I don't like laying points with the Mavericks. I do like them as an underdog, though, even when they don't have superstar Luka Doncic.

That's the case again in this matchup.

The teams just met on Jan. 28 in Salt Lake City. The Mavericks didn't have Doncic and lost, 108-100, in that game. The Mavericks were plus 7 1/12 in that matchup. So they just missed covering. Dallas had covered the previous five times on the road against the Jazz.

Now the Mavericks are getting close to double-digits. They won't have Kyrie Irving yet, but their rotation players should be highly motivated to produce knowing their roles could change with the expected arrival of Irving. 

Dallas has had good success versus Utah covering 10 of the last 13 times. 

The Bulls are laying the most points they have all season. I don't see the spot setting up well enough for them to cover.

Chicago is fat and happy having won two in a row, both at home. The Bulls rallied from 17 points down to defeat the Trail Blazers, 129-121, this past Saturday. This marks Chicago's third game in five days. The Bulls have a much more challenging matchup on Tuesday when they meet the Grizzlies in Memphis. So there's no need for them to go all out against the lowly Spurs. 

Overconfidence could factor against the Bulls, too. San Antonio has lost eight in a row. This is the start of the Spurs' annual rodeo trip. They've been idle since Friday. 

The Spurs are capable of beating the Bulls. They proved that with a 129-124 win back on Oct. 28 during the first meeting this season. San Antonio has covered five of the last six times versus the Bulls.

The Wizards have blown 20-plus point leads in each of their last two games. So they should be extremely focused for this matchup. They catch the Cavaliers playing without rest after Cleveland defeated the Pacers, 122-103, on Sunday. 

This is important. So are the Wizards owning a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games versus opponents who are above .500 at home. Cleveland also is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times when playing on zero rest and 2-7 ATS following a win. The Cavaliers are 6-14-2 ATS in their past 22 road games. 

That's a lot of trends lining up against the Cavaliers.

Bradley Beal should play for the Wizards after missing their last game this past Saturday due to a foot injury. He participated in the Wizards' shootaround this morning. 

Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday.

Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games.

This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats.

You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996.

The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa.

Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent.

I want the Grizzlies going for me at home in this spot. The Grizzlies are in an ornery mood following a 128-113 road loss to the Cavaliers. Dillon Brooks was suspended for this game because of his cheap shot actions against Donovan Mitchell in that loss to Cleveland.

The Grizzlies don't see it that way. They believe the NBA is against them. Memphis has won eight of its last nine home games and are expected to get back center Jaren Jackson, who missed the Cavaliers game due to a thigh bruise. That's huge because Memphis remains without Steven Adams.

Toronto concludes its seven-game, 12-day road journey here. The Raptors just beat the Rockets, 117-111, two days ago. The fatigue factor on the Raptors is high.

The Raptors are 2-6 ATS the past eight times when playing an opponent with a winning home record. The Grizzlies are 36-15-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 52 home contests.

Both teams are struggling offensively as the rugged Big Ten season hits the first weekend of February.

Ohio State has failed to break the 60-point barrier in three of its last five games. The Buckeyes are averaging 63.3 points in their last three games.

Michigan is averaging 63.4 points during its last five games.

The Wolverines have held three of their last five foes to 64 or fewer points. Ohio State defends the 3-point shot well.

So I see defense carrying the day in this one.

The Bucks and their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, are playing extremely well with six consecutive victories. But Milwaukee has trouble with Miami. The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks. I see another close game here.

Only twice in their last 21 games have the Heat lost by more than five points.

Miami has the No. 2 defense in the NBA giving up 108.1 points. The Heat are 5-1 ATS the past six times on the road when going against a foe with a home winning percentage better than .600.

The Bucks still might be breathing a sigh of relief after a huge come-from-behind national TV win against the Clippers this past Thursday. Milwaukee pulled the game out, 106-105, by scoring the final seven points of the game.

Even with that win, Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times versus opponents with a winning record.

The Heat have covered the past four times against the Bucks, including posting 108-102 and 111-95 home victories on Jan. 12 and Jan. 14. Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, who is back healthy, didn't play in those games. Still, the Heat play the Bucks physically, tough and with confidence. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Heat pull out the outright win.

Michigan State is strong defensively. No surprise there. Rutgers is super strong defensively ranking in the top-six nationally in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The combination of outstanding defenses and this intense matchup being played at Madison Square Garden in New York should produce a very low-scoring game - and an Under. College teams not used to playing at Madison Square Garden often have trouble scoring there because of the large arena and shooting background. It is a tough, foreign court in a city full of distractions.

Michigan State is averaging only 62 points during its last two games.

The teams met on Jan. 19 at Michigan State. The Spartans won, 70-57. That's a total of 127 points. Note there were nine unanswered garbage points scored during the final minute that inflated that final score.

San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season.

Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday.

The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many.

Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points.

The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games.

The Pacers are an underrated home team with a 16-11 record. They have covered eight of their past 11 home contests.

Indiana has revenge for an embarrassing 23-point road loss to the Kings on Nov. 30. The Pacers also have back their best all-around player, Tyrese Haliburton. He played last night scoring 26 points and dishing off 12 assists against the Lakers after missing the previous 10 games.

The Pacers blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead to the Lakers in that loss. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers' previous game before the Lakers was back on Sunday. So there should not be a fatigue factor.

Sacramento will be missing its star guard and leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox. He's out for personal reasons. This will be the Kings' first game without him since Dec. 11. So there will be an adjustment factor.

These teams aren't as bad defensively as perceived.

The Kings are giving up an average of 108.4 points during their last five games, all of which have gone Under. The Pacers have surrendered 112 points, or fewer, in four of their last six games.

Sacramento will be minus its leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox. He's out for personal reasons. Fox also is No. 2 on the team in assists. It's a big blow for the Kings not to have him.

The Under has cashed 14 of the last 17 times the Kings have been on the road against a foe with an above .500 home record.

The Under has also cashed four of the last five times Indiana has hosted Sacramento.

Look, Gonzaga just isn't that dominant this season. Yet the oddsmaker continues to inflate the Bulldogs. This game is another example.

Much is made of Gonzaga having its 75-game home winning streak ended on Jan. 19 by Loyola Marymount. Less publicized is the Bulldogs being 5-14-3 ATS during their past 22 home games.

Santa Clara is 16-7 and deserving of being a shorter underdog than this point spread. The Broncos nearly upset Gonzaga in the first meeting on Jan. 7, losing 81-76, covering as an 8-point home 'dog. Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing an above .500 team.

The Pelicans are in full stop-the-pain mode, losers of nine in a row. Except for Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are finally healthy now. Brandon Ingram should have the rust off having played in the past three games following a 29-game absence because of a toe injury.

New Orleans is stepping down in class after having played the Bucks this past Sunday and Nuggets two days ago.

The Mavericks aren't fully healthy either minus Maxi Kleber and Christian Wood, their second-leading scorer at 18.4 points per game.

Dallas is coming off a victory against the Pistons and has a bigger matchup on deck facing the Warriors on Saturday. The Mavericks are 5-20-1 ATS following a win. They also have been terrible when laying three or more points going 7-20-1 ATS in that role.

Queens is the 21st-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.9 points. That's six points more per game than what Lipscomb averages. 

Queens has won two in a row, while scoring at least 81 points in three of its last four games.

Lipscomb has lost and failed to cover its past two games. 

Power rating-wise, I have Queens as the better team. So getting this many points makes this a worthy investment. 

I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton.

William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record.

The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11.

William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense.

The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.

The Thunder should play with defensive intensity having lost six in a row, including giving up 128 points to the Warriors at home this past Monday. Oklahoma City ranks sixth in defensive field goal percentage.

Houston is minus its leading scorer, Jalen Green (calf), and top assists guy Kevin Porter Jr. (foot).

The Rockets have been playing better defense lately holding their last five foes to an average of 112.4 points. This is down from their season average of giving up 117.1 points a game.

There were 223 points scored in the first meeting with the Rockets winning, 118-105, back on Nov. 26. It marked the sixth time in seven meetings the teams had gone Under when playing in Houston.

I'm going to ride Lehigh's momentum and revenge in this matchup against Army.

The Mountain Hawks have won eight in a row. They are 8-2 at home. Army has lost three of its last four games.

Lehigh has a much stronger defense than Army. The Mountain Hawks also have played the tougher schedule.

Army hosted Lehigh on Dec. 30 and won 80-78. Army shot better than 54 percent from the floor and 52 percent from 3-point range yet merely won by two points at home.

The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests. They are 5-2 in road games this season with four of those wins coming versus ACC foes.

Pittsburgh is off a 71-68 home win against ranked Miami this past Saturday. North Carolina hasn't played in more than a week. The rest is good for the Tar Heels, but it could come with some rust. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when meeting above .500 opponents.

The Panthers beat North Carolina, 76-74, when the teams met on Dec. 30. Jamarius Burton had a monster game with 31 points.

Kudos to San Diego State on being ranked 22nd in the latest AP Top 25 poll. The Aztecs hold the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. But I don't see them beating Nevada in Reno.

The Wolf Pack are 10-0 at home. They are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.

San Diego State defeated Nevada, 74-65, at home three weeks ago. The Aztecs got the Wolf Pack to play their game. That won't be the case in Reno. The Wolf Pack should also shoot much better. They shot under 40 percent from the field in that first meeting missing 20 of 25 3-point shots.

The Clippers were riding a season-best five-game win streak going into their last game. That streak came to a crashing halt with a 122-99 road loss to the Cavaliers two days ago. The Clippers didn't play well in that game. They also chose to sit out superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George along with point guard Reggie Jackson.

I don't care so much about Jackson, who is questionable with a sore Achilles, but Leonard and George aren't on the injury report. Both are expected to play. That's good enough for me to get involved with the Clippers against an inconsistent 23-26 Bulls squad that isn't in a great situational spot. It's Chicago's first home game in a week. The Bulls have been on the road for their past three games.

Leonard and George are playing at high levels. Leonard is averaging 30.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.4 steals during his last five games. George is averaging 24.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.2 steals in his last five games.

The Clippers have covered eight of the past 11 times when playing a below .500 opponent.

The Bulls have a huge revenge game up next hosting the Hornets on Thursday. Charlotte upset the Bulls in embarrassing fashion, 111-96, this past Thursday in Charlotte.

Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC.

Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago.

Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes.

Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents.

Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts.

The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country.

South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road.

Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games.

I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference.

Despite two consecutive losses, Orlando has been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 19 of its last 26 games for 73 percent.

The 76ers have won seven in a row with the last two of their victories coming against the Nets and Nuggets this past Saturday. That's highly satisfying. Joel Embiid sparked the 76ers in that victory with 47 points and 18 rebounds in the 126-119 win.

I see this as a flat spot for the 76ers. So much of a flat spot that there is the possibility they would rest Embiid, who has been dealing with left foot soreness.

Even if Embiid plays, I believe the spunky Magic will hang in. They haven't lost three in a row since late December. Orlando is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times when getting points and is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when playing on one day rest.

Slow tempo. Bad offenses. That adds up to an Under in this matchup despite the low total the oddsmaker has set.

Cal State-Fullerton ranks third in the Big West Conference in defensive efficiency. The Titans just held Cal-Irvine to 15 points under its season average in a 62-61 win two days ago. Cal Poly is not Cal-Irvine. The Mustangs average 61.9 points, which is 354th in the country. The Under is 46-21 in their last 67 games, including 6-1 during their past seven home games.

Fullerton has gone Under in 11 of its last 16 games. The Titans are 306th in shooting percentage. Cal Poly is a very strong defensive rebounding team and holds opponents to fewer than 66 points a game.

The Mavericks defeated the Suns on the road two days ago without Luka Doncic for most of the game and they can keep this game close minus Doncic.

Dallas has won the past two times as an underdog defeating Phoenix and Miami eight days ago.

Dallas has covered 10 of the last 12 times versus the Jazz, including the past five times in Utah.

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Wisconsin, which is 1-5 in its last six games.

The Badgers, though, are home - where they historically play much better - have their leading scorer Tyler Wahl back and are in revenge mode from a 79-69 loss suffered to Illinois three weeks ago.

The Badgers should get a boost, too, with starting guard Max Klesmit expected to play.

Samford could still be suffering the after effects from a tough 91-84 overtime road loss to Furman this past Wednesday night in its biggest game of the season.

Wofford, on the other hand, is off a confidence-building underdog road victory against Tennessee-Chattanooga this past Wednesday that halted a two-game losing streak.

The Terriers have been strong in an underdog role this season covering six of eight.

The defending world champion Warriors are a disappointing 24-24. Golden State, though, is 18-6 at home. The Warriors will be highly motivated to defeat Toronto at home tonight. They still haven't forgotten the Raptors beating them to win the 2019 championship. 

Golden State also goes on the road for its next three games following this matchup. 

Toronto is 7-15 away from home. The Raptors are 6-14 ATS playing at Golden State. Toronto is fat and happy after an impressive, 113-95, win against the hot Kings this past Wednesday. 

The Raptors have won two straight. Only once this season have they posted three consecutive victories. 

New Mexico has scored 76 or more points in 10 of its last 11 games. The Lobos are the 14th-highest scoring team in the nation. They should have no problem getting their points against Air Force, which is slipping defensively. 

The Falcons have surrendered at least 70 points in seven of their last eight games. They just gave up 82 points to San Jose State this past Tuesday. That was 14 points above San Jose State's season scoring average. 

Air Force should get its share of points, too. New Mexico is last in the Mountain West Conference in two-point defense. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lobos' last 11 home games. 

I want Kent State going for me at home and off a stunning upset road loss to Northern Illinois this past Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes had won 10 in a row until losing, 86-76, to the Huskies as a 13-point favorite.

That was Kent State's first MAC loss in seven games. The Golden Flashes are 16-4 overall and unbeaten in nine home games.

Buffalo is a mediocre 10-10 with a 2-6 road record. Kent State is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times hosting foes with losing road records.

San Diego is 9-12, including 2-5 in the West Coast Conference. But that's still better than Pepperdine, which is 7-14 and 0-7 in the WCC.

The Toreros are a horrendous defensive team. They can score, though. ranking 48th in scoring. They also are 23rd in free throw accuracy. Pepperdine shot 56 percent from the floor against San Diego when the teams met two weeks ago in San Diego. The Toreros still won, 92-89, covering as 2 1/2-point favorites. I see this point spread being too lopsided in favor of Pepperdine.

San Diego should have plenty of energy. The Toreros last played a week ago. They lost at Portland, 88-83, in that game. Pepperdine just played Portland, too, on the road this past Saturday. The Waves lost, 91-76, to Portland. Pepperdine has failed to cover now in seven of its last eight games.

Since Dec. 28, the Bulls have beaten many teams much better than the Hornets. The list includes the Bucks, Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. Chicago was riding a three-game winning and covering streak going into this past Tuesday's game against Indiana.

The Pacers were minus Tyrese Haliburton, their best all-around player, and had lost seven in a row. The Bulls built a 21-point lead and looked in full control. But the Pacers stunned the Bulls by scoring 70 points in the second half to win, 116-110.

Chicago has a chance for redemption now playing the Hornets. Not only are the Hornets terrible - with the third-worst record in the NBA at 13-36 - but they are banged-up and in a bad situational spot.

Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin are out for Charlotte. LaMelo Ball missed Charlotte's last game because of an ankle injury. He's questionable as is Gordon Hayward, who has a groin injury. Ball is the Hornets' leading scorer and top assists man. Oubre is the team's No. 3 scorer. Hayward ranks fifth on the team in scoring. Martin is a reliable rotation player.

The Hornets are 5-16 at home. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games.

Charlotte ranks 28th defensively giving up 119.1 points per game. That figure climbs to 123.8 points going by their last eight games. The Bulls rank fifth in the NBA in field goal percentage and free throw percentage.

The spot isn't good either for the Hornets. They just returned from a four-game, seven-day road trip that concluded Tuesday night in Phoenix with a 31-point loss to the Suns. Charlotte has lost and failed to cover during its past five home games.

I'm not going to make out that 7-13 SMU is a good team. The Mustangs aren't. But they have been playing solid defense holding their last three opponents to an average of 63 points in regulation.

Memphis is not a good defensive team and the Tigers don't cover point spreads - 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.

The Tigers have failed to cover the last seven times they've played a sub .500 opponent. 

Center Rudy Gobert may be the best defensive front-court player in the NBA. His presence makes a difference. And he's back for Minnesota.

Given that plus the situation and the Pelicans ranking No. 1 in 3-point defensive field goal percentage, I'm going Under this total.

The Timberwolves are off an embarrassing 119-114 loss to the Rockets, who had lost 13 straight losses entering the matchup. Gobert returned after missing the previous three games due to a groin injury. He had 16 rebounds and four blocks. But the Timberwolves ran into a sizzling Jalen Green, who scored 42 points on 15-of-25 shooting from the floor. Minnesota coach Chris Finch ripped his team following the loss for their lack of focus.

The Pelicans showed a lot of defensive heart holding the Nuggets to a season-low 36 points in the second half last night. The Pelicans lost, 99-98, though, despite holding the Nuggets to 18 points under their season average. The Pelicans should be up for another strong defensive effort being home while not looking to push tempo playing without rest.

South Carolina has proven to be tough on the road. Just ask Kentucky. The Gamecocks upset the Wildcats, 71-68, at Rupp Arena on Jan. 10. South Carolina hasn't won since losing three in a row - all at home.

So going back on the road may be a good thing for the Gamecocks. They've covered their past four road games.

Florida has been playing well. However, the Gators aren't likely to have starting 6-foot-9 forward Alex Fudge, their second-leading rebounder. That would hurt their size advantage forcing them to employ four guards.

The Gators are off a narrow victory against Mississippi State. They are 5-14 ATS following a victory.

Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range.

Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line.

Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent.

This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times.

Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group.

Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS.

Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games.

The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark.

I want Davidson in circle-the-wagon mode after four straight losses. The Wildcats covered in their last two games losing to George Mason by two points on the road and to Dayton on the road by seven points. The Wildcats last played a week ago. They should be pointing to this matchup. 

I'm not a fan of LaSalle. The Explorers rank 330th in field goal percentage and aren't good on the defensive end either. The Wildcats are the better free throw shooting team, too. 

I understand why this total is being bet up. Both teams are offensive-minded and haven't been playing very good defense. 

But there are situational elements that favor the Under. The Hawks are in action for the third time in four days. Their last game was a track meet against the Hornets. I don't expect a fast pace. The Bulls just returned from beating the Pistons in Paris this past Thursday. So they might not have their legs due to jet lag. 

These Eastern Conference teams know each other well. This is their third meeting of the season. There were 218 points scored when the Bulls won, 110-108, on Dec. 22 the last time they played. There were 220 points scored in regulation during the first meeting, which went into overtime. Now look where the total sits. 

Nothing like watching the two worst teams in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference to induce a deep sleep.

How can 3-17 South Carolina State be a mid-range favorite? The answer is being at home and playing Delaware State. The Hornets are in the discussion for worst Division I team in college basketball at 1-16. They've lost 15 in a row.

Delaware State is horrible both offensively, averaging 61.6 points, and defensively giving up 75.4 points.

Yes, this is bad on bad. But South Carolina State is in better current form averaging 81.2 points in its last five games. Delaware State is averaging 57 points during its last seven games. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games. Delaware State has failed to cover in its last eight games.

Boston is hot, winners of nine in a row. The Celtics also are banged-up and in a flat spot. Boston has a bigger game on Tuesday playing the Heat in Miami.

The Celtics won't have Jayson Tatum today. They aren't likely to have Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III either. Both were injured in the Celtics' 106-104 road victory at Toronto this past Saturday. That was a gutty win for the Celtics. Boston loses a lot of defense without Smart and Williams. 

The Magic should be motivated after giving up a season-high 138 points to the Wizards in a 20-point road loss to the Wizards two days ago. The Magic lacked energy in that game having beaten the Pelicans at home the night before. They should be far more physical in this matchup. 

Until that loss to the Wizards, the Magic were flying below the radar going 12-8 SU, 15-5 ATS pulling off straight-up underdog victories against the Celtics, Raptors, Warriors, Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Clippers. 

Sure it's a huge plus if Giannis Antetokounmpo can play having been out with knee soreness. But I see the motivated Bucks rolling past the Pistons even if Antetokounmpo can't go.

Milwaukee is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three of its last five games, including 114-102 to the Cavaliers this past Saturday. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS following a non-cover.

The Pistons are the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They are 1-6 in their last seven games. Detroit has lost by 12 or more points in seven of its last eight defeats.

There's also a situational factor working against Detroit. The Pistons just played in Paris this past Thursday where they were blown out by the Bulls, 126-108. So jet lag and concentration could be issues.

From a historical perspective the Bucks have dominated this series winning 15 of the last 16 times. Milwaukee is 2-0 versus Detroit this season with wins by two points and 25 points. Both of those victories were in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times meeting the Pistons in Detroit.

Kudos to the Suns for beating the Nets and Pacers during their last two games despite having multiple injuries to key players. However, I don't see the Suns winning a third straight game minus so many players against an angry Grizzlies squad.

Memphis had its 11-game win streak halted by the Lakers on Friday night, 122-121. The Grizzlies blew a 13-point second-half lead.

Until defeating the Pacers - who shot 37.5 percent from the floor against Phoenix and were missing their leading scorer, Tyrese Haliburton - the Suns had lost nine of 10. The Suns are without Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton - their three best players - along with Cam Johnson and guards Cam Payne and Landry Shamet.

The Grizzlies hosted the Suns three games ago and buried Phoenix, 136-106, six days ago.