The Wizards have incentive to win 30 games and get revenge for an embarrassing loss to the Nets last month.

Brooklyn, though, has nothing to play for after being upset by Toronto on Sunday. The Nets are locked into the No. 4 seed. Their goal going into the playoffs is getting healthy. That means resting players. So don't expect Gerald Wallace or Deron Williams to see many minutes if they even play at all.

This is what Nets coach P.J. Carlesimo said after Sunday's loss to the Raptors: "We don't need to get anybody hurt. We're not playing for anything. Going forward now we've certainly got to rest some people."

With John Wall playing well, the Wizards certainly are capable of pulling the outright upset against the disinterested Nets.

The Bulls have owned the Magic - as have most teams this season - and still are playing for playoff seeding with a chance for the fifth seed. So Chicago can't afford to slip up against the lowly Magic.

The Bulls should be reinforced for this matchup. Richard Hamilton is back from a one-game suspension, Taj Gibson is expected back after missing eight games and Joakim Noah is in the lineup for the second time in 14 games.

Chicago has defeated Orlando in eight of the past nine meetings, including the last four. The Bulls are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games versus foes with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Orlando has failed to cover in14 of its last 20 home games.

The Raptors are lottery-bound once again, but have shown life during the home stretch winning and covering four of their last five. Toronto has a couple of players - Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas - who are game-time decisions, but have a number of other young, underrated players to fill in.


Brooklyn is playing well. I certainly acknowledge that. But this is going to be a tough spot for the Nets, who are trying for a fourth consecutive road win. The last time they achieved that was 2008.


The Nets already have clinched the fourth seed in the East, making the playoffs for the first time since 2007. They still have an outside chance to gain the No. 3 seed, but that's not likely to happen. The Nets are off big road victories against the Celtics and the Pacers this past Friday. This marks Brooklyn's fourth game in six days and this matchup is at an early start time. Toronto is used to playing in these early home Sunday starts. They are fully acclimated to them.


The Nets can have all the incentive they want, but posting consecutive road victories against the Celtics and Pacers during the past four days is draining. It's difficult to envision the Nets bringing their "A" game to this matchup. The Nets haven't covered during four of their last five visits to Toronto. Brooklyn also hosts much-improved Washington on Monday. Deron Williams isn't 100 percent so the Nets may choose to limit his minutes.


The Raptors have triple revenge motivation. Toronto is 0-3 against Brooklyn this season. All three losses were tough games and the Raptors didn't have Rudy Gay, their best player, in any of those games.

It's taken all season, but the Lakers finally have their act together spurred by the super human efforts of Kobe Bryant. Los Angeles has won five of its last six as it tries to hold off Utah for the last playoff spot in the West.


The Lakers can't let up here - and they know it. The Lakers have a one game lead on the Jazz with three games left in the regular season. Utah, though, holds the tie-breaker and still has two games left against the lowly Timberwolves. The Lakers finish against San Antonio and Houston. They absolutely can not afford to lose this home matchup.


Golden State achieved its goal of making the playoffs for the first time since 2007. The Warriors still are on Cloud 9 and won't have injured Andrew Bogut. That's going to make it difficult for the small Warriors to handle Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol inside.

The Warriors have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 road games. They are 7-19 ATS the past 26 times facing an opponent with a winning record and now are playing without rest.

The Lakers have beaten the Warriors 18 of the past 20 times, including winning the last nine times at Staples Center. The Lakers have won their last nine overall matchups against the Warriors by an average of 14.7 points. The Warriors have been unable to defend Bryant, who is averaging 33.8 points in his last eight games against Golden State.

The Jazz are a young team and facing a lot of pressure in a must-win spot here trailing the Lakers by one game for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Minnesota was blown out by the Warriors and Clippers in its first two games of this three-game road trip. I see the Timberwolves, with the pressure off, playing much better and showing some pride. The Timberwolves are 8-1-1 ATS following a loss.

Utah isn't play well enough to be laying this many points. The Jazz have averaged just 92 points during their last four games.

This is no rest stop for Oklahoma City. The Thunder are locked in a showdown with San Antonio for the top spot in the West.

Golden State isn't nearly as good as Oklahoma City and the Warriors are in a letdown situation. The Warriors clinched just their second playoff spot in 19 years and first since 2007 in their last game this past Tuesday with a victory against Minnesota.

The Warriors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a win. They also are 4-13 ATS the past 17 times when meeting an opponent with a winning record. Oklahoma City has covered five of the past six meetings between the two clubs. The Thunder knows how to take advantage of the Warriors' loose style and lack of defensive especially targeting Stephen Curry, a weak defender.

The Thunder has covered the last five times when playing on the road against a team with a winning home record. The Warriors haven't been able to clamp down on Kevin Durant, who is averaging 30.4 points versus Golden State in 20 career meetings. That's his highest average against any team.

Even though Portland has lost eight in a row, the Lakers should not be this high of a road favorite especially at this venue.


Portland's Rose Garden has been a den of thorns for the Lakers, who have lost in 17 of their last 21 visits there while failing to cover the spread during 18 of their last 22 trips.


The Lakers are a bad road club to begin with, too, covering just 25 percent of their away matchups this season. LA has failed to cover in five of its last six road games.


Los Angeles had a tough go at home last night against the lowly Hornets trailing well into the fourth quarter before pulling out the victory. The Lakers are 2-8 when playing in the second of consecutive games. This also is the veteran Lakers third game in four days.


The Trail Blazers have been idle the past two days. They are eager to end their embarrassing losing streak. They fell behind 26 points at home to Dallas in their last game this past Sunday, but didn't quit. The Trail Blazers rallied to within three before losing 96-91. They only failed to cover the 4 1/2-point spread when Shawn Marion made a needless layup at the buzzer. The Trail Blazers felt good after that game saying that the comeback boosted their sinking confidence.


The Trail Blazers were sparked by rookie Will Barton, who scored 22 points, pulled down 13 rebounds and dished off six assists off the bench. Barton could play extra minutes if Wesley Matthews can't go because of an ankle injury.


The Lakers are battling for the final playoff spot in the West, but they have too much age and mileage to have fresh legs for this matchup.

The Warriors couldn't lock up their first playoff berth in six seasons losing at home to Utah in their last game this past Sunday. Now Golden State hosts lowly Minnesota. After this game, the Warriors finish with four tough games - the Thunder, at the Lakers, Spurs and at the Trail Blazers.


Golden State is a much better team than the injury-ravaged Timberwolves. The Warriors are home with strong motivation to achieve their long sough after playoff bid. This is their opportunity - and they know it.


The Warriors are 26-12 at home and have covered 55 percent at Oracle Arena. The Timberwolves are 10-27 on the road and have a losing away spread mark.


Golden State has defeated Minnesota five consecutive times. The Timberwolves are coming off a satisfying 107-101 home win this past Sunday against Detroit. That victory gave coach Rick Adelman his 1,000 win. The Timberwolves wanted to accomplish that for their coach, who has had a troubled season due to his team's poor record, multiple injuries and ill health of his wife.


The Timberwolves will miss the playoffs for the ninth year in a row. Their goal was to get Adelman's his historic win. Mission accomplished. Now the Timberwolves have to fly to the West Coast to play just their second road game in 12 days. I see a disinterested team looking to play the string out. Minnesota is 5-15-1 ATS following a victory.


Thanks to Stephen Curry, the Warriors rank No. 1 in 3-point field goal percentage. The Timberwolves are 24th in defensive field goal percentage. This is a bad matchup for the Timberwolves both from a fundamental standpoint and situational viewpoint.

Dallas is in must-win mode to keep its faint playoff hopes alive. Portland is on a season-high seven-game losing streak and officially out of playoff contention.

Sounds like a no-brainer to fade the Trail Blazers, right? Wrong. The situation is ripe for the home 'dog.

Some teams actually play better once they are eliminated from the postseason knowing there is no more pressure. The Trail Blazers desperately want to end their losing streak. This is the last time they get to play an opponent with a losing record.

Dallas just isn't very good. That's why the Mavericks are a long shot to continue their playoff run of 12 straight years. The makeup of the team is largely composed of over-the-hill veterans who will be leaving Dallas once the season ends. Most of these guys are just mercenaries. Dirk Nowitzki hasn't produced such low numbers since his rookie season.

There is a huge fatigue factor working against the Mavericks. This is their fourth consecutive road game and third game in four days. Portland is always a tough road venue. Despite a rare four-game home losing streak, the Trail Blazers still have won nearly 60 percent of their home games.

LaMarcus Aldridge is the key for Portland. He's back after missing four games with a right ankle sprain. He scored 32 points and had 13 rebounds in Portland's last game this past Friday. Aldridge is averaging 25.3 points, 10 rebounds and shooting 52.5 percent from the floor in three games versus Dallas this season. He's the best player on the court.

The early money has been on Michigan. But Syracuse is the right side. The Orangemen have experience and the defensive edge to beat the Wolverines. No team during the post-season has played better defense than Syracuse The Orange have held their last five opponents to 32 percent shooting from the floor.


Syracuse has covered in nine of its last 12 non-conference matchups.


I don't see Michigan being able to solve Jim Boeheim's vaunted matchup zone either. Trey Burke and the rest of the Wolverines have not faced such tall guards with huge wingspans such as Michael Carter-Williams. The Wolverines are also going to have problems trying to score inside.


Michigan lacks Syracuse's experience, depth and savvy. The Wolverines use five freshmen as part of their nine-man rotation. Michigan coach John Beilein has some idea of what's in store for his team having spent five years as a coach in the Big East with West Virginia. Let it be noted, though, that Beilein is 0-9 lifetime against Syracuse.

Denver just may have the best home-court edge of any team. The Nuggets are shooting for their 20th straight home win, which would match their franchise best. They catch Houston paying its third road game in four days and second in two nights.


The Rockets have lost 13 of 19 times when playing without rest. They also have lost and failed to cover the past six times versus Denver.


Denver has the depth to overcome losing second-leading scorer Danilo Gallinari and point guard Ty Lawson. Houston doesn't have the depth, especially playing without rest and in high altitude, to be without its second-leading scorer, Chandler Parsons. He's not expected to play due to a calf injury. The Rockets also may be without guard Carlos Delfino, who has missed the past two games because of the flu.


Denver not only wins at Pepsi Center, but covers spreads. The Nuggets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games. They are worth riding again in this matchup.

Getting points with the superior team is something that interests me. That's the case here. The Lakers are in a desperate struggle to make the playoffs, but Kobe Bryant isn't 100 percent and Steve Nash is out. Dwight Howard continues to miss free throws at an astounding rate and Metta World Peace is out.


The Grizzlies have won four in a row and aren't letting up. They are playing for playoff seeding. Memphis is 22-1 when reaching triple-digits this season. The Lakers are allowing more than 101 points per game. Contrast this with Memphis, which leads the NBA in defense yielding less than 90 points a game.


The Lakers have failed to step up most of the time. They are 2-7 ATS versus foes with an above .600 mark. The Lakers can't go all out either and expose Bryant and Nash to major minutes with a big game Sunday against the Clippers.

Minnesota isn't good enough to be laying this many points to any team. The Raptors are playing a lot of youngsters, but some of them are pretty underrated, including Jonas Valancinas, who is coming off a season-high 24 points in Toronto's last game, a win against Washington.


The Raptors have covered seven of the past nine times on the road when going against a foe with a losing home mark. The Raptors also are 18-8 ATS the past 26 times when facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .400.

Minnesota doesn't have a good history of stringing together well played games. The Timberwolves are 3-12-1 ATS following a straight-up victory.

Toronto has owned this series. The Raptors have covered six of the past seven times at Target Center.

On paper, this one sets up well for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been idle for four days while the banged-up Spurs had to play last night. The Thunder need to win this game to have any realistic hope of overtaking the Spurs for best record in the West.

So the Thunder are the right side, correct? Perhaps. But the point spread says something different. Any time the number is this high, the Spurs have to be played especially when there are false perceptions that come into play.

Yes, the Spurs played last night. But they were home to Orlando, one of the worst teams in the NBA. San Antonio was able to win by 14 despite limiting Tim Duncan to 13 minutes and not using Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard and DeJuan Blair. They should all be available tonight.

The Spurs had played six straight games where the outcome was decided by two points or less during regulation. Only four times have the Spurs been underdogs since Jan. 25 and they covered all four winning three straight-up.

No team does a better job keeping Kevin Durant in check. The Spurs have held Durant, the NBA's leading scorer, to five points under his scoring average in the three meetings this season. The Spurs have won two of those meetings. San Antonio also has held Russell Westbrook to less than 35 percent shooting from the floor.

Maybe the Thunder win the game, but it sure looks to be close. This spread is out of whack.

What are the odds of a sixth straight San Antonio game being decided by two points or fewer? The answer is not very good when the opponent is Orlando.


Still, there are numerous reasons for backing the Magic to stay within this big number.


First is the situation. The Spurs just got through playing extremely tight games against the Nuggets, Clippers, Heat and Grizzlies. After this matchup, the Spurs have a Western Conference showdown with Oklahoma City on Thursday. This, of course, leaves the backdoor open for Orlando because Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will want to rest his veteran stars if his team builds up a big lead in anticipation of tomorrow's much more important matchup.


Manu Ginobili is out for anther couple of weeks with a strained right hamstring. The Spurs haven't been very good covering big numbers failing to get the money the past five times when laying nine or more points. San Antonio also is just 4-11-1 ATS the last 16 times when going against foes with a winning percentage of less than .400.


Orlando hasn't quit on first-year head coach Jacque Vaughn. The youthful Magic actually have covered eight of their last 11 road contests. They came from 25 points down in their last game, this past Monday at Houston, to pull within five late in the fourth quarter before losing 111-103. The Magic are going with rookies and some of them are playing well. Maurice Harkness had a season-high 28 points versus Houston.


It's doubtful Popovich will want to blow out and embarrass Vaughn. The two are close. Vaughn coached under Popovich at San Antonio from 2010 until getting the Orlando head coaching job this past summer.

Raptors minus 3 1/2 hosting Wizards



The Wizards are playing hard to their credit. John Wall is playing his finest ball since joining the league.



Toronto has dropped seven of its last eight. But the spot is right for the Raptors. They catch Washington off a satisfying home win last night versus the Bulls.



The Wizards aren't likely to have underrated rookie Bradley Beal, who reinjured an ankle injury during the Wizards' win last night.



The Raptors will miss the playoffs once again. They haven't been getting up for games being demoralized. They will get up for this matchup, however. It's a revenge spot as just three days ago the Wizards whipped Toronto, 109-92, in Washington. Beal had 24 in that game having just returned from an ankle injury that caused him to miss five games.



Washington is playing well at home, but is just 2-7 ATS on the road. The Wizards also have failed cover in seven of their last 10 games versus Toronto.

The top-ranked, top-seeded Baylor women were upset in the NCAA Tournament. The Baylor men aren't going to let the same fate happen to them.


Baylor meets BYU in an NIT semifinal game at Madison Square Garden. Baylor and BYU met once already during the season and Baylor won, 79-64, at home.


The Bears won because they are the superior team. Baylor has the stronger offense and bench. The Bears are averaging 93.3 points in their three NIT games. BYU is a high-scoring team, too, but can't match that. The Cougars are averaging 86.3 points per game in the tournament.


Depth plays a crucial role now this late in the long season. Baylor has it. The Bears' bench has outscored their opponents' reserves, 73-42, and won the battle of the boards by a 45-19 margin.


Baylor is strong inside with Cory Jefferson and 7-foot-1 Isaiah Austin, who ranked third in the Big 12 in rebounding. The Bears also have that important leadership and skill level at point guard with senior Pierre Jackson. He led the Big 12 in scoring and assists. Jackson also set an assists record with 16 during the Bears' second-round victory against Arizona State.


BYU just isn't in Baylor's class. The Cougars have failed to cover the past four times when playing on a neutral floor.

The Bucks just aren't playing well enough to lay this many points. Plus Charlotte has been performing well and not quitting. The Bobcats are a guard-oriented team and Gerald Herderson and Kemba Walker have been outstanding especially Henderson.


Charlotte has covered five of its last seven with three straight-up victories during this span. The Bobcats' only non-covers during this time were to the red-hot Heat and by one point to the Pistons losing at the buzzer. The Bobcats are averaging 102.7 points during their last three games.

Milwaukee has dropped eight of its last 11 games. The Bucks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. The Bucks lack incentive owning a 5 1/2-game lead on the 76ers for the final playoff spot, knowing they are going to meet Miami in the first round. That, of course, means a quick exit.


The Bucks live and die with how Brandon Jennings plays and he's been off shooting just 25 percent from the field in the last five games while averaging fewer than nine points a game during this span. The problem also could be mental with Jennings, who is not happy.

Jennings has been cold and the Bucks are playing too casual. That's not a good combination for a team laying double-digits.

J.R. Smith has been on fire and the Knicks are playing well. However, the Celtics are going to bring it in this matchup having been embarrassed at home by the Knicks this past Tuesday losing, 100-85.


The Celtics, for some odd reason, took the Knicks lightly in that matchup. It won't happen here. I consider these teams very even so taking this many points makes sense in this heated division rivalry.


The Celtics bounced back after being embarrassed by the Knicks to beat Cleveland on the road and then defeat Atlanta at home by 11 this past Friday. Beating the Hawks was the eighth time in the last 10 games that Boston has covered against an opponent with a winning record.


This has been a road series with the visitor covering nine of the last 11 times. Boston is 5-1 in its last six trips to Madison Square Garden.

Minnesota has been playing well, but the Timberwolves are one of the weakest teams in the league, lack depth and are in action for the seventh time in 10 days. I don't see the Timberwolves being able to sustain their solid play against what should be a motivated and superior Grizzlies squad.


Memphis trails the Clippers by just one-half game for fourth-place in the Western Conference playoff seedings. The Grizzlies are only one game in back of third-place Denver. The Grizzlies, though, have been losing on the road. This is a test for them. They will have incentive.


Memphis is the top rebounding team and ranks second defensively. The Grizzlies have started to perform better since Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have come back from injuries. The Timberwolves, without Kevin Love, are not a rebounding match for the Grizzlies.


The teams have met twice this season and Memphis won by 15 and 17 points. Another Grizzlies' double-digit victory should be in the offering.

Syracuse has a big edge when playing an opponent not familiar in dealing with the Orangemen's vaunted 2-3 zone. The Orange have exploited that so far in the NCAA Tournament.



But now Syracuse comes up against a familiar foe - Marquette. The Golden Eagles have covered in their last five meeting with Syracuse because they know how to attack the 2-3 zone. The Golden Eagles have the combination of inside power and speed to slice through Syracuse's zone or to pound inside if necessary. When the teams last met in February, Marquette won straight-up.



Unlike other tournament survivors, the Golden Eagles are playing with a huge chip on their shoulder feeling disrespected. Marquette got its bad games out of the way. I see the Golden Eagles continuing to peak.

Give me a reason to go under in a big Michigan State game and I'll take it. In this matchup, there are plenty of reasons to look for the total to go under.

Hard nosed Michigan State ranks in the top 30 in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and defensive rebounding. Duke ranks 15th in defending against 3-pointers.

The Spartans' leading scoring and assists leader, point guard Keith Appling, is dealing with knee and shoulder injuries although he is expected to play. However, his shooting could be off.

In fact, I expect both teams to have problems shooting because this game is being played in Lucas Oil Stadium, a football stadium. Basketball players are not used to shooting in this type of atmosphere. They are going to have problems getting accustomed to the background.

Duke did a great job defending against Doug McDermott, one of the best big people in the country, and Creighton in its last game. The Blue Devils held Creighton, the nation's second-best shooting team, to a season low in points and shooting percentage. McDermott missed 12 of 16 shots from the field.

The Blue Devils made less than 39 percent of their field goals in that game, an ominous sign when stepping up to face rugged Michigan State. The under has covered the past seven times the Spartans have gone against an above .600 percent opponent. Duke and Michigan State have combined to go under in nine of its last 10 non-conference matchups.

Yes, Brooklyn is playing well on the road winning four of its first five during its current eight-game away swing. But now the Nets face their biggest challenge - meeting Denver at Pepsi Center where the Nuggets have won 17 in a row and are 32-3 on the season. The Nuggets also have covered 11 of their last 14 at home.

The Nets have failed to step up when facing quality opposition going 4-9 ATS the past 13 times when facing an above .500 team. The Nuggets have beaten the Nets five consecutive times at Pepsi Center - and the games haven't been close with Denver winning by an average of 13.2 points.

The Nuggets, though, are on a two-game losing streak following a team record-tying 15-game winning streak. The Nuggets are out to get straighten out again and they're home to accomplish that. The Nuggets have the rebounding, scoring in the paint and depth to exploit the Nets' road weariness.

Oklahoma City has dominated Minnesota winning 14 of the last 15 in the series. The Timberwolves don't have the offense to keep up with the Thunder, nor the defense to keep Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in check.

It's a bad matchp for Minnesota both player-wise and on a situational level. This marks the Timberwolves' sixth game in nine days. The Timberwolves lack the depth with all of their injuries to keep pace with Oklahoma City when fatigue is a major factor.

The Thunder can't afford to let down in this game playing such a lowly opponent. I don't see that happening as the Timberwolves caught the Thunder's attention by nearly beating the Lakers at home this past Wednesday and that the Thunder is just 1 1/2 games behind San Antonio for the Western Conference lead and knowing the Spurs' next two games are against the Clippers and Heat.

Oklahoma City not only leads the NBA in scoring, but also has been playing outstanding defense holding four straight opponents to 90 points or fewer. Oklahoma City has had no problem exploiting the Timberwolves' porous defense averaging 115.2 points during the past 11 meetings between the two teams.

The Thunder know how to beat up the bad teams covering 10 of the last 12 times when facing a sub-.500 foe. Minnesota also is at its worst against strong opponents going 5-15-2 ATS versus above .500 teams.

My handicap is to Syracuse because I believe the Orangemen's 2-3 zone is going to cause major problems for the Hoosiers. So going under the total makes sense as a correlated parlay.

Syracuse's tall guards have the wingspan to disrupt Indiana's smaller guards perimeter games. Syracuse has held all but one of its last nine foes to 63 points or less.

Syracuse's defense has been at its best during the NCAA Tournament holding its first two opponents, Montana and California, to miss 41 of 45 shots from beyond the arc.

Indiana won't be able to get inside points either because the Orangemen have size and are physical.

The buck stop here for indiana. Syracuse can match the Hoosiers in toughness, has athletes and is playing in Big East terriotry - Verizon Center. The Orangemen have covered eight of their last 11 nonleague games.

Temple threw a scare into Indiana. Now the Hoosiers have a real matchup problem. The spread is high here especially considering that the talent level is even. Syracuse probably is going to have three players drafted by NBA teams in Michael Carter-Williams, James Southerland and Brandon Triche. The Hooisers don't have a guard tall enough to handle Carter-Williams.

Syracuse' two greatest strengths are defensive rebounding and committng turnovers. Indiana is vulnerable in both of these areas when playing top-level competition. I see the Hooisers, who prefer a fast tempo, struggling against the Orangemen's slow half-court style.

The Orange ranked third nationally in field goal percentage defense and sixth defending three-pointers. I don't see the Hoosiers getting a lot of good looks against Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone that held Montana to 20.4 perccent from the field and California to 39 percent from the floor during the first two games of the tournament. Montana and Cal shot a combined 4-for-45 from 3-point range.

By sleepwalking through their last game, a 109-103 road loss to Golden State this past Monday, the Lakers find themselves clinging to just a one game lead for the final playoff spot in the West against Utah and Dallas. And the Jazz own the tiebreaker in case they finish in a tie with the Lakers.

So expect a motivated Lakers squad to take the court against Minnesota. Los Angeles certainly owns a gigantic talent edge. The Lakers are 2-0 versus Minnesota this season winning by an average of 16.5 points.

The Timberwolves are off an easy road win against Detroit last night. The banged-up Timberwolves now return home exhausted with their depth depleted this late in the season due to multiple injuries. This marks the Timberwolves' fifth game in seven days.

The Lakers are desperate to halt a three-game losing skid. The Timberwolves can defeat bad teams, but have had problems when stepping up in class. They are 5-15-2 ATS the past 22 times when facing foes with a winning record. The Lakers have covered the past six times when playing at Minnesota.

Minnesota has been decimated by injuries this season. It's forced extended minutes on players not ready for them and help result in nine losses in its last 10 road games.


The Pistons know they have a great shot at ending an embarrassing six-game home losing streak. Those losses all occurred to foes much stronger than Minnesota.


The Pistons have been a solid money-maker when playing bad opposition going 10-3 ATS versus below .500 teams and 8-2 ATS against opponents with a winning percentage below .400.


Detroit's confidence is up, too, after posting a road victory in its last game this past Saturday. The Pistons don't play again until Friday so they should be fully focused and going all out.


The Timberwolves are caught in a weird scheduling spot. They just were home after three straight road games. Now they go back on the road and then come home for four consecutive games starting Wednesday when they meet the Lakers in a much more appealing matchup.

While Memphis is a far superior team to Washington, the line is set low because the Wizards are home, the Grizzlies have lost three straight on the road and center Marc Gasol is out with an abdominal tear. Gasol is the Grizzlies' second-leading scorer and rebounder.

Memphis still is the right side and the low spread puts us in action on the money line since this figures to be a defensive battle. The Grizzlies rank first in defense holding foes to less than 90 points a game. They are outscoring the Wizards by an average of six points per game. The Wizards rank 28th offensively and are vulnerable to the Grizzlies' trapping style that has help them rank among the leaders in steals.

The Grizzlies match up well to the Wizards. They've defeated them seven of the past eight times. The Grizzlies are playing for playoff seeding. This matchup is important given their recent woes. Memphis hasn't lost four consecutive road games in three years. The Grizzlies had won seven of their past eight away games before their recent slide so it's not like they are a bad road club. In fact, the Grizzlies have covered eight of their last 11 on the road.

Washington's home-court advantage is negated somewhat by weird scheduling circumstances. The Wizards returned home yesterday after being on the road for four games, including the last three on the West Coast. This is their third game in four days. Right after this game, though, the Wizards hit the road again for games against Oklahoma City and Orlando.

Being at home for less than two days after a prolonged stay on the West Coast is distracting and puts the Wizards at a situational disadvantage. While the Grizzlies will be without Gasol, Washington will be missing a key player, too, in guard Bradley Beal, who is the Wizards' second-leading scorer. He aggravated a sprained ankle. The Grizzlies have an underrated backcourt that can take advantage especially with the way reserve guard Jerryd Bayless has been stepping up. He's averaging 20.2 points during the last five games shooting 54 percent from the field.

Look for Florida Gulf Coast to come back down to reality after pulling off the tournament shocker, upsetting No. 2 Georgetown, 78-68.


Pulling an upset of that proportion is just too munch for young college kids to handle in such a short turnaround. Who says? History. Recall last year when Norfolk State, also a 15th-seed, took out Missouri in the first round. In the next round, Norfolk State fell to Florida by 34 points.


There are examples such as 15th-seed Lehigh stunning Duke last year in the opening round and then losing by double-digits to Xavier. The mindset is celebration and enjoying the moment. That's all fine and exhilarating, but the truth is these teams have matchup issues and extreme high odds of producing a second "A" game in such a pressure situation when not in the proper frame of mind.


Florida Gulf Coast would be bucking more history, too, since a 15th-seed has never reached the regional semifinals.


San Diego State coach Steve Fisher and his Aztecs are tournament tested looking to reach the Sweet 16 for the second time in three seasons. Fisher actually knows Florida Gulf Coast well since he has property close by in Fort Myers Beach.


Despite UNLV, New Mexico and Boise all exiting from the tournament, the Mountain West Conference was one of the strongest leagues in the country this past season. San Diego State has played much higher quality opponents in very tough settings. The Aztecs were impressive in beating Oklahoma in the first round. Future NBA player Jamaal Franklin had another outstanding game.

I'm going to lay the wood with the Thunder, who are chasing San Antonio for the top spot in the West and off a lackluster performance against lowly Orlando.

The Thunder have a strong history of burying weak teams at home and catch the tired Trail Blazers at the tail end of a five-game, seven-day road trip.

Portland is feeling satisfied these days off road victories against Chicago and Atlanta this past Thursday and Friday. The Trail Blazers, though, still have lost 14 of their last 18 away matchups. The fatigue factor is especially prevalent in this matchup because Portland has the lowest scoring bench in the league.

Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS the past 13 times hosting a foe with a losing road mark. The Thunder is 9-1 ATS at home taking on opponents with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

The Thunder has defeated the Trail Blazers the past six times. Portland has not covered during the past five meetings. The Trail Blazers need to defend the perimeter well to have a chance against the Thunder. This is going to be hard for them to do with tired legs.

The Trail Blazers aren't going to the postseason. They just would like this game to be over so they can get back to the West Coast. The Thunder don't play again until Wednesday so they won't be holding anything back, or limiting the minutes of their stars.

OK, Kansas got its flat game out of the way in the tournament opener. The Jayhawks have covered 10 of their last 12 and will be fired-up for Roy Williams, facing his former team and historic rival, North Carolina. Playing in Kansas City, which is just around 40 miles from their campus, is a huge plus, too, for the Jayhawks.

The two teams met last year in the tournament and Kansas won 80-67. The Jayhawks return every one of significance from that matchup except Thomas Robinson. The Tar Heels, however, won't have Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller. Those three - all in the NBA right now - were in North Carolina's lineup and the Tar Heels still lost by 13 points.

The Jayhawks have a huge height advantage now. The Tarheels are going to need to hit their 3's to stay in the game while Kansas can dominate in the paint. It should be noted that the Tar Heels have not fared well when facing the elite teams in their ACC going a combined 0-5 straightup and 1-4 ATS versus Duke and Miami.

I have renewed respect for the Wizards, who unlike other bottom feeders have refused to quit. The Wizards are an impressive 20-15 since John Wall returned.

But this is a horrendous spot for Washington.

Golden State has been idle since Wednesday. The Warriors are pushing for their first playoff spot since 2007 and are highly motivated playing at home for the first time in nine days. The Warriors are 22-10 at home.

They catch the Wizards off their most satisfying road win of the season. Washington rallied from 18 points down in the second half to stun the Lakers, 103-100, last night at Staples Center. The Wizards lack the maturity and focus to turn right around and play another strong game.

Even with the victory against the Lakers and the one against Phoenix in their previous away game, the Wizards are just 7-26 on the road. This marks their fourth away matchup in six days so fatigue becomes a crucial factor especially playing an up-tempo team such as Golden State.

The Wizards haven't won three straight games on the road all season. It's not going to happen here. The Warriors have a top-10 offense that can take advantage of this situational advantage and bury the Wizards.

Michigan has been excellent all season at not turning the ball over. But playing in the rugged, slow Big Ten doesn't give them the chance to go against a helter-skelter, pressing foe such as VCU.


The Wolverines have not seen this type of full-court pressure all season. Given the short turnaround, too, between their last game and this one, I see the Wolverines having problems here. VCU, on the other hand, had a rest stop against Akron.


The Rams led the nation in forcing turnovers. They are at their best, too, in the NCAA Tournament where they have covered a phenomenal 12 of 13 times. Two years ago, the Rams reached the Final Four as an 11th-seed.


Michigan peaked too soon. The Wolverines are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games. They have failed to cover seven of the last nine times when taking on an opponent with a winning record.

This is a bad matchup for Villanova. The Wildcats are a young, inconsistent team anyways, but they are at their worst against up-tempo, accurate 3-point shooting teams such as North Carolina.

North Carolina averages more than 77 points a game and has a number of excellent 3-point shooters. Villanova's has a weak perimeter defense. The Wildcats have given up 10 or more 3-pointers nine times. They rank 294th in defending against 3-pointers. North Carolina averages nearly eight 3-pointers a game.

Villanova is 5-12 ATS the past 17 times when playing on a neutral site. The Wildcats haven't fared well recently in NCAA Tournament action either failing to cover in their last four appearances.

Pacific is a well-coached, smart, veteran, pesky team that can hang around Miami if the Hurricanes don't produce their "A" game.

I see the Hurricanes producing less than a stellar effort here. Miami is basking in the glow of not only capturing the ACC regular-season title, but also winning the conference tournament. That's a tremendous achievement. I think the Hurricanes will be sharper in their next game, not this one.

Pacific is playing hard for retiring long-time coach Bob Thomason. Last year, two No. 15 seeds pulled upsets in the NCAA Tournament. So there is precedent for this type of upset.

The Tigers have won their past seven games. They have momentum winning the Big West Conference Tournament. The Tigers don't have much height, but they're experienced and get good ball movement. They have seven seniors, including three who start.

You might find it surprising, but the Kings are a very respectable 18-15 at home. They also are playing well averaging 113.1 points during their last 11 games in which they've gone 5-6. This includes home wins against the Clippers and Bulls in their past two games in Sacramento.


Mainly, though, this handicap is a fade on Minnesota. The Timberwolves are a shot team heading down the stretch. Forced to go with a limited roster, the depth-shy Timberwolves were done in by multiple injuries.


Minnesota's problems really manifest itself on the road. It has been more than five weeks since the Timberwolves last won away from Target Center. The Timberwolves' road mark is very ugly - eight straight defeats and 16 losses during the past 17 games. Minnesota is 3-13-1 ATS on the road when going against a team with a winning home record.


The Kings have maturity issues, but they should be up for this game with a double-revenge motive. The Timberwolves beat Sacramento twice in November when they were healthy and playing their best ball.


The Timberwolves dominated the boards against the Kings thanks to Kevin Love. Now, though, Love is out and the Kings are the better rebounding team averaging nearly 47 points in the paint this month, which ranks among the NBA's best. Minnesota, by contrast, is 29th in rebounding differential this month at minus 7.8 per game.

Colorado State wins on the road. Missouri doesn't. Missouri's calling card is its rebounding. But the Tigers won't have an edge because Colorado averages just one less rebound per game than Missouri as both teams rank among the four best in the country. Colorado State has an excellent big man, Colton Iverson, who averages nearly 10 rebounds a game and shoots 60 percent from the floor.


Missouri is 2-8 on the road. The Tigers do have an excellent point guard in Phil Pressey. However, their loss to Mississippi in the quarterbacks of the SEC Tournament is troubling as the Tigers blew a 14-point second-half lead. This brings into question their vulnerability on the road. Note, too, that the Tigers have failed to cover 10 of the last 14 times they've played a foe with a winning mark.


By contrast, the veteran Rams won six road games while playing in one of the toughest conferences in the country. They also were 3-0 at neutral sites. Only one of the Rams' losses was to an opponent not in the NCAA Tournament.


The Rams are battle and road tested. They have the size and savvy to win this game straight-up. So taking points is a nice bonus.

Maybe Marquette doesn't deserve a No. 3 ranking, but the Golden Eagles are still strong enough to cover this short number.


Davidson enters the tournament with the longest winning streak in the nation. That didn't impressive the seeding committee and it doesn't impress me either. I'd rather have Marquette, which enters the tournament with a chip on its shoulder after a Big East Tournament quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame. Just like last year, Marquette lost its opening Big East Tournament game and then proceeded to reach the Sweet 16 for the second straight year. The Golden Eagles aren't exactly cold either having won six of their past eight.


Davidson lost to the top non-league competition it played falling to among others, New Mexico, Duke and Gonzaga. The Wildcats are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times they've faced a foe with a winning record. They also are just 5-13-1 ATS during their past 19 nonconference matchups.


The Wildcats lack size and are not quick. They are going to have problems with a physical Big East team such as Marquette, which will strive to push the ball inside getting much easier baskets while Davidson has to rely on it's long-range perimeter game.

Golden State and San Antonio are top 10 offensive teams. But the setting for an under sets up perfectly in this matchup.


The Warriors brought in Mark Jackson as coach to improve their defense. Lately the Warriors have improved their defense realizing that they have no shot in the playoffs if they can't handle a half-court style. In their last two games - both road victories - the Warriors held Houston and New Orleans to a combined average of 75 points and 33.1 percent shooting from the field. It was the sixth straight time the under has cashed when the Warriors have played a Western Conference opponent.


This wasn't a fluke either. The Warriors have gone under in six of their last eight games. The under has cashed by an average of 26 points during this span.This trend should continue as 7-foot center Andrew Bogut becomes more of a focal point. The Warriors don't run-and-gun nearly as much with Bogut in the lineup. The pace is slowed.


The Warriors aren't going to lack for motivation either having lost a humiliating 28 straight times in San Antonio.


San Antonio won't lack for motivation either. Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan are not happy with the Spurs lack of defense. San Antonio yielded 113 points at home this past Saturday to the Cavaliers, who didn't even have Kyrie Irving. That's an embarrassment.


The Spurs also have revenge for a 107-101 overtime road loss to the Warriors on Feb. 22. Golden State ranks No. 1 in three-point shooting, but San Antonio ranks fourth in defending against 3-pointers.


Chances are the Spurs are going to be rusty having last played on Saturday. They still figure to be without Tony Parker. The Spurs are going to need to hit their perimeter shots as the Warriors have gotten much tougher inside defensively with Bogut finally healthy. Making outside shots could be a problem for San Antonio. The Spurs will have to win this one by stepping up defensively. No coach is more dangerous with ample preparation time than Popovich. He'll have the Spurs ready to defend Stephen Curry and Co.

These two teams hook up in something called the CollegeInsider Tournament. It's a minor tournament where the host,Youngstown State, actually shelled out $35,000 to hold the matchup.



It's the first time Youngstown State is participating in a postseason tournament since 1977. The Penguins are just two years removed from back-to-back 2-16 Horizon League records. The Penguins have improved, but they still aren't very good. They are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games.



The spread is where it is because the Penguins are home, although I don't know how much support they'll get for this bogus tournament, and because all-conference guard Kendrick Perry is expected to play after being out a month with a knee injury. Perry, though, could be rusty.



Oakland is a tough test for a team not used to playing the run-and-gun Grizzlies. The Grizzlies love to race the floor ranking among the top 40 teams in scoring. The Grizzlies have covered the past five times when taking on a foe with a winning record.



A major key in these minor tournament matchups is motivation. Oakland is in the Summit League. The Grizzlies aspire to join the Horizon League possibly as a replacement for Butler. A loss to Youngstown State would not be helpful in that direction.

At 25-40, the 76ers are not going to the playoffs and they know it. Maybe that's why, with the pressure lifted, the 76ers are playing their finest ball after underachieving all season.

The 76ers have a winning home record. They have been enjoying their current homestand going 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in their last three games. Their only loss was by four points to the red-hot Heat, winners of 22 straight games. Philadelphia defeated the Nets by nine and Pacers by seven.

These victories against the Nets and Pacers, two solid playoff teams, weren't flukes either. The 76ers blocked 14 shots against Indiana. Spencer Hawes may have played his finest game with 18 points, a career-high 16 rebounds, eight assists and seven blocks. The 7-foot-1 Hawes can neutralize LaMarcus Aldridge, who is Portland's No. 1 scoring option.

Philadelphia is a very dangerous foe to be playing when at home right now so the timing is bad for Portland. The Trail Blazers also happen to be a terrible road club. They are 9-23 away from Rose Garden, 13-19 ATS.

Basketball is fun again for the 76ers. I expect another strong performance from them especially since they head out for a four-game West Coast trip following this matchup.

This has turned into a bitter rivalry this season for Golden State as it is 0-3 versus Houston. Not only are both teams battling for a playoff spot, but the Warriors have the added motivation of triple revenge.


I don't find the Rockets superior to Golden State despite their 3-0 mark in the series. The Warriors have the better record and are the deeper team. I'm not a fan of Houston coach Kevin McHale. The Rockets have always been about stars rather than winning and that's holding true again this season.


The Rockets have a number of bad habits, including turning the ball over and falling behind looking for James Harden to bail them out. That's a dangerous pattern and I believe it catches up to Houston here.

The oddsmaker has set a total way too high for what should be an intense matchup. Neither team is very good defensively and the first two games in the series were off the charts as far as points scored, but this is an entirely different matchup and situation.


Neither team is playing well. Golden State is averaging just 93.3 points in its last six games. Houston is turning the ball over way too much committing 59 turnovers during its last three games.


I see this game being played out closer to their matchup of nine days ago when there were just 182 points scored. James Harden and Stephen Curry are great scorers, but it's too much of a leap in faith to expect both of these teams to suddenly put on a far better offensive performance than their recent form indicates.

Utah has won 23 of its 31 home games. Only seven teams have a better home record.


The Jazz are desperately trying to earn a playoff spot. Right now they trail the Lakers by one game for the final spot in the West. They know they are far better at home than on the road. They can't afford any home losses.


The Jazz last played on Wednesday when they were blown out on the road by Oklahoma City, 110-87. The only bright spot from that game was the return of underrated forward Paul Millsap from a knee injury that had kept him out of two games.


The rested Jazz are eager to put that loss behind them. They have covered eight of the last 10 times following a loss of more than 10 points.


I like Memphis. They are normally solid on the road. But this marks the Grizzlies' fourth road game in five days and second game in high altitude in two nights. The Grizzlies no longer have a strong bench due to cost-cutting trades.


The Jazz are one of the few teams that match up well to the Grizzlies' physical, rebounding front line. Utah has won nine of the last 10 in this series. The Jazz also are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a road club with a better than .600 winning away percentage.

New Mexico State has too much size and plays too much pressure defense for Texas State.


The Aggies swept Texas State during the regular season winning 86-72 on the road and 78-67 at home.


The Bobcats sprung a huge upset last night upsetting Denver. Texas State, though, isn't good enough to put together back-to-back good games against quality conferrence opponents. Texas State is 2-8 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Cleveland proved it could win without Kyrie Irving beating much-improved Washington, 95-90, at home two nights ago. The Cavaliers also showed they could win on the road as they beat Toronto in the game before that with Irving playing less than 25 minutes.


Now the Cavaliers travel to Dallas. The Mavericks are better than Washington and Toronto. They are in a desperate struggle to reach the playoffs for a 13th straight season. Dallas, though, is four games below .500. So the Mavericks are far from being a powerhouse. This also is a good situational spot for the Cavaliers.


Even without Irving, the Cavaliers have good young talent. These players, especially underrated rookie guard Dion Waiters, want to step up and show their stuff now that they aren't overshadowed by the highly-talented but fragile Irving.


Cleveland has covered in its last four road contests. The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS following a spread cover and are 5-1 ATS during their past six visits to Dallas.


Dallas just concluded a four-game road trip with a tough one-point loss to Western Conference-leading San Antonio last night. The Mavericks scored the final seven points in their 92-91 loss to the Spurs and had the final shot, but Vince Carter missed a 3-pointer in the final second.


Now the Mavericks have to quickly turn around and play again hardly having time to adjust to being back at home. The Mavericks are one of the oldest teams in the NBA. This is their third game in four days and only the second time since Feb. 1 they are playing without rest. The Mavericks also could be without Shawn Marion for a fifth straight game due to a bruised calf.


The Cavaliers are loose, have underrated talent even without Irving and catch the Mavericks down mentally and in a potential look-ahead spot. Dallas hosts Oklahoma City on Sunday, a much bigger game for the Mavericks.

Kansas has dominated Texas Tech winning the past seven in the series by an average of 25.6 points.

The Jayhawks have been itching to get going in the Big 12 Tournament after being routed by Baylor in their last game, which was their first loss in eight games. The Jayhawks hadn't lost by that much since 2006.

Texas Tech upset West Virginia, 71-69, on Wednesday as 8-point 'dogs when Dejan Kravic tipped in a missed shot right before the buzzer. It was just the Red Raiders' third win in their last 18 games and second on the road.

Texas Tech is 2-14 ATS following a spread cover. The combination of Kansas being vastly superior and motivated and the Red Raiders being emotionally drained puts me solidly with the Jayhawks.

This Western Athletic Conference Tournament matchup pits No. 3 seed New Mexico State against No. 6 seed Idaho. A third versus sixth is usually a dangerous game for the favored third seed.

These two teams met twice during the regular season and the games could not have been closer. New Mexico State won 76-74 at home when Idaho missed two shots during the final 14 seconds. The Aggies only won by two despite shooting 53.6 percent from the floor compared to Idaho's 46.3 from the field. The Aggies also nipped the Vandals, 71-70, at Idaho.

Idaho is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times when playing a foe with an above .600 winning percentage.

The Vandals have a dangerous outside-inside game. They were one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the WAC. More important, the Vandals have the league's MVP in center Kyle Barone. The senior led the league in rebounding at 9.9 per game and was No. 2 in the conference in scoring at 17.1 a game. He also was the third-best free throw shooting in the WAC at .779. Taking just league games, Barone was the top scorer and rebounder in the WAC.

Thanks to Barone, the Vandals can definitely hang in if not upset the Aggies, who rely on inside scoring.

The Bulls aren't playing well, but have the necessary defense and grit to cover this short number against one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Sacramento has failed to cover the last five times when hosting the Bulls. Chicago has defeated Sacramento by double digits during its last four visits.

This is the middle of a three-game West Coast trip for Chicago. The Bulls lost bad to the Lakers this past Sunday. They have a tough game up next on Friday against Golden State. So this becomes a pivotal matchup for the Bulls, a game they can't afford to lose.

Chicago ranks in the top three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. I see the Bulls, with their tough defense, frustrating a talented but unreliable Kings backcourt. The Bulls have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt, but they are deep and Sacramento is allowing a league-worst 105.1 points per game and 115 points during its last 15 matchups.

The Kings last played this past Sunday. They do not play again until this Sunday when they meet the Lakers, a team the Kings figure to be more motivated against than Chicago. The immature Kings could have problems handling this weird scheduling set up.

I like UAB to beat SMU in this first-round Conference USA tournament game. The teams just met 10 days ago in Birmingham, Ala., and the Blazers won, 74-69.

UAB won despite not playing very well or hard. SMU shot 57.7 percent from the floor, while the Blazers made 43.6 percent of their field goal attempts yet still managed to win by more than this current spread number.

UAB has the better inside game and a much stronger bench. I see the Blazers coming out far more motivated and playing much better. That should be enough to dispatch a team they are better than.

Wyoming is looking to turn things around and earn a minor tournament bid after going 5-12 following a 13-0 start. Nevada, though, is in worse shape. The Wolf Pack have dropped seven in a row, the last five by double digits. I don't see the Wolf Pack suddenly just switching gears.

The two teams hook up today in a play-in game in the Mountain West Tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Nevada has failed to cover eight of the past 11 times when playing on a neutral floor.

Wyoming is 18-12. Nevada is 12-18. The Cowboys beat the Wolf Pack by11 in Reno and then rolled by them by 20 points at home in Laramie. The key for the Cowboys is Leonard Washington, a powerful 6-foo-7, 230-pound forward. He averaged 16 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, four steals and 3.5 blocks in the victories against Nevada.

Washington has been limited the past two games by an ankle and back injury. His status is a factor why this line is low. The Cowboys last played on Wednesday and word is that the time off has really helped Washington. He should be at full go. Nevada, though, may be without guard Jerry Evans Jr. He has an injured wrist on his shooting hand.

We know Orlando is terrible. The Magic just might be the worst team in the NBA if not for Charlotte. But if there's one game the Magic and their fans will be sky high for it's this matchup against former teammate Dwight Howard.

If the season ended now, the Lakers would be in the playoffs. This is their first of three straight road games. They are dealing with a three-hour time difference and have far more challenging games ahead of them playing Atlanta on Wednesday and the Pacers on Friday.

So if not a letdown by the Lakers at least the backdoor figures to be open for Orlando. The Lakers are not a good road team having lost 20 of their 31 away matchups going 11-19-1 ATS. They are 6-14-1 ATS when facing a foe with a winning percentage of below .400.

Orlando has just six home games left after this one. The Magic only have 18 victories, but one came against the Lakers, 113-103, at Staples Center on Dec. 2. Howard was just nine-of-21 from the foul line. Howard is shooting a career-low 47.8 percent from the foul line.

It's not inconceivable the Magic send him to the line at least 20 more times. The Lakers were minus 17 when Howard was on the floor during the first meeting with Orlando.

These two teams met twice during the regular season and Western Illinois won both times, holding North Dakota State to a puny average of 39 points a game.

Western Illinois has a lot of momentum in this Summit League Tournament having earned a share of the regular season conference title for the first time in 30 years. The Fighting Leathernecks have won 22 games, the most ever in the program's NCAA Division I era.

The Bison are 0-5 ATS the past five times when meeting an opponent with a winning record. By contrast, Western Illinois is 14-4 ATS when taking on a foe with a winning mark.

The Jazz aren't playing well enough to lay this many points even to a weak foe such as the Pistons. Utah is 1-7 in its last eight games. The Jazz just finished an 0-4 road trip that ended at New York this past Saturday. This is their first home game in 10 days so their minds might be distracted.

This marks Utah's third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Jazz have been a strong home team, but are just 3-3 during their past six at EnergySolutions Arena. Utah also might be missing underrated Paul Millsap, who missed the Knicks' game this past Saturday with a sore knee. He's a game-time decision.

The Pistons shouldn't lack for motivation. They were embarrassed, 129-97, by the Clippers last night in Los Angeles. Both Greg Monroe and Jose Calderon expressed frustration with the loss with Monroe saying his team played with no effort. That's a strong criticism that should light a fire. The Pistons also have revenge for blowing a 15-point lead in a 90-87 home loss to Utah.
Detroit is 3-3 in its last six road matchups defeating Milwaukee, Charlotte and much-improved Washington. The Pistons, when motivated and catching a less-than-elite foe in a slump and in an unfavorable situational spot, can hold its own. Note, too, that the Jazz are just 1-6 ATS the past seven times when facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .400.

Oklahoma City has been playing better defense lately and you know Gregg Popovich will have his defense fired-up after the Spurs lost 136-106 at home to Portland in their last game this past Friday. The Spurs have gone under in nine of their last 10 matchups when having two days in between games.

The Spurs don't have a powerhouse offense minus injured Tony Parker. They are likely to slow down the pace against the high-scoring Thunder. The under has cashed five of the last seven times that the Spurs, when rested, have played an unrested foe as the Thunder beat Boston on Sunday.

This is the third meeting of the season between these two powerhouses. The Spurs won the first meeting, 86-84, at home in early November. That total went under by 34 points. The Thunder won the second battle, 107-93, at home on Dec. 17. That total went under by 8 1/2 points. Look for another under here.

This is my Triple Dime Blowout Shocker. Even without Tony Parker, I like Spurs to defend their home-court and beat Oklahoma City. The Thunder had to play Boston yesterday, while the Spurs have had two full days to think about a 136-106 home loss to Portland. That was their second-worst home loss ever and a total embarrassment.

No coach is better when having time to prepare than San Antonio's Gregg Popovich - and the Spurs certainly won't lack for motivation and effort either off a 33-point home loss. The Spurs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on two days rest.

Each team has protected their home turf well in this series with the host being 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times. The Spurs have covered 69 percent of their last 59 home games. Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS the last six times on the road when facing a team with a winning home mark.

The teams have split two games this season. The Spurs were without Manu Ginobili in both of those matchups. Now they have him. No Western team has done a better job defending against league scoring leader Kevin Durant than San Antonio, holding him to seven points under his average this season.

Milwaukee is a flat out better team than Sacramento. The Bucks are 5-1 in their last six games and can take advantage of Sacramento's 29th-ranking in defensive field goal percentage as all three of their guards - Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings and J.J. Redick - are playing well.

The Bucks aren't as imposing inside, but the Kings are very weak defensively, too, up front ranking last in points allowed per game.

The Kings are off a victory this past Friday against Phoenix. The young, immature Kings, though, are 2-7 SU and ATS following a win.

The Bucks have had good success on the road against the Kings covering five of the last six times in Sacramento.

Early money has moved Portland into the favorite's role in this matchup. I'm not buying that.

Yes, Portland did pull a major surprise destroying the Spurs in San Antonio, 136-106, this past Friday. That was the Spurs' second-worst home defeat in their franchise history.

It was a very impressive road win for Portland. But it doesn't erase the fact that the Trail Blazers are not a good road team. Until that shocker, the Trail Blazers had dropped seven straight outside of Rose Garden and 11 of their past 12 away matchups. This is Portland's third road game in five days. The Trail Blazers lack a strong bench to combat fatigue.

Portland also isn't very good when dropping down in competition failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times when taking on an opponent with a losing mark. New Orleans crushed the Trail Blazers, 99-63, when it last hosted them on Feb. 13. The Hornets accomplished that despite not having Eric Gordon.

This is just too many points for Ohio State to lay against a quality Big Ten foe. There aren't going to be any surprises here. These teams know each other having already met. Defense will be at a premium so taking this many points makes sense.

Illinois has beaten good teams on the road, including now top-ranked Gonzaga. The Illini beat Ohio State by 19 points at home earlier this season. That was a sweet win for Illini coach John Groce, who coached for four years under Ohio State coach Thad Matta. Groce goes way back with Matta having also been on his staff at Butler and Xavier.

Illinois was flat this past Tuesday in a loss to Iowa. Prior to that, however, the Illini had won six of seven.

Denver is playing great and Minnesota, racked by key injuries, isn't. But the Timberwolves have played the Nuggets tough and catch Denver in a bit of a letdown spot.

The Nuggets just buried the Clippers at home in their last game. That was a highly satisfying win for Denver. That was the Nuggets' 12th straight win at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets are feeling pretty smug, which is justified but isn't a good thing in the NBA when laying this many points.

The Timberwolves have beaten the Nuggets during their past two meetings. They are one of the few teams to beat Denver at Pepsi Center this season. The Timberwolves received a much needed win and confidence boost with their 87-82 home win against much-improved Washington in their last game this past Wednesday that ended a six-game losing streak.

Memphis is playing well, but the Grizzlies aren't a strong cover team at home when laying big points. Memphis is 0-4 ATS the past four times it has been favored by seven or more at home.

This is Memphis' third game in four nights, too. The Hornets are well-rested having been idle since Wednesday.

The Hornets have been itching to play, too, since blowing a 25-point lead at home in their last game this past Wednesday versus the Lakers.

New Orleans would have a far better record if it played in the weaker Eastern Conference. The Hornets have respectable talent with Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, rookie Anthony Davis and a much improved Greivis Vasquez at point guard. He's averaging 19 points a nearly 10 assists during his last three games.

The Grizzlies may be missing Zach Randolph, their leading scorer and rebounder. He's missed the past three games with an ankle injury.

Air Force is very tough at home. The Falcons' only home losses have been to Wichita State early in the season and Colorado State, each by three points. The Falcons have defeated UNLV, Boise and San Diego State at home.

The Falcons are capable of upsetting a disinterested New Mexico squad, too. The Lobos already have won the Mountain West Conference title. They have defeated Air Force 12 straight times. Nobody on the Air Force team has seen the Falcons beat New Mexico.

All of this should ensure that Air Force is the more motivated team.

This is a matchup the Warriors have been pointing to. Golden State has double revenge for a pair of losses last month to the Rockets. One came at Houston when the Rockets rubbed it in during a 140-109 victory tying a league record most 3-pointers. The other loss to Houston came at home.

The Rockets have had Golden State's number winning 16 of the last 18 times. But the Warriors have won their last four home games and have the offense, especially with hot-shooting Stephen Curry, to take advantage of a Houston defense giving up an average of 108.5 points in its last 13 games.

Houston has failed to cover in its last three games and for the season has covered only 43 percent of its away contests.

Northern Iowa is my college game of the year. The Panthers meet Illinois State today in a quarterfinal Missouri Valley Conference Tournament game in St. Louis. The Panthers are seeded No. 3. Illinois State is seeded No. 6. The Panthers are 6-1 under Ben Jacobson when they are the higher seed in this tournament.

Illinois State came on after a slow start, but the Redbirds are not better than the Panthers. That's evident in the won-lost records, seeding, in the statistics and in the two matchups the teams had this season.

The two teams met on Jan. 5 at Illinois State. Northern Iowa won 70-60. The teams just met this past Saturday and Northern Iowa won, 80-72. The Panthers won despite shooting 39.7 percent from the floor while the Redbirds made 50 percent of their field goal attempts. The Panthers had a 40-25 rebounding advantage. It was the 10th time in the last 12 meetings during the past four years that Northern Iowa has defeated Illinois State.

The Panthers have won seven of their last nine. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Missouri Valley games. Illinois State is 0-4 ATS the past four times it has faced an opponent with a winning record. Northern Iowa has more wins against RPI Top 50 teams than the Redbirds.

The Panthers also are allowing seven points per game less than Illinois State. They rank 56th in the nation giving up 61.4 points a game. The Panthers rank No. 8 in the country in free throw shooting and led the conference in free throw percentage. Northern Iowa also is the better rebounding team as they proved during the last meeting six days ago.

This is a big revenge game for Pacific, which is still in the hunt for the Big West title but needing a win in this matchup.

Irvine defeated the Tigers, 68-59, on Feb. 20. Pacific coach Bob Thomason prides his team on defense and the Tigers didn't play good defense in that game.

Pacific has been very tough in Stockton going 11-2. Irvine is 1-4 ATS in its last five games and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 away contests versus foes with a winning home record.

The Tigers are averaging 67 points in their last two games, which were road victories against Cal State Fullerton and UC Riverside. The Tigers shot a combined 48.4 percent in those two games while accumulating 31 assists out of 47 made field goals. That's impressive considering the Tigers have been much stronger shooting team at home.

This matchup is the Mavericks' season. If Dallas loses this game, it falls seven games games behind the Rockets and Jazz for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Mavericks have made the postseason every year since 1999-2000.

The Mavericks are a prideful lot with a lot of veterans. Nearly all of them can become free agents after the season. Their futures are on the line.

Dallas just returned from a three-game road trip. After this matchup, the Mavericks go on the road for four straight games. This is their lone home game during an eight-game span. It's an absolute must-win spot.

The Rockets and Mavericks just met this past Sunday and the Rockets destroyed Dallas, 136-103. Houston has a great offense, but Dallas' lack of defense was appalling. I see the Mavericks learning from that loss with this quick turnaround, playing stronger defense. I like Dallas coach Rick Carlisle much more than his Houston counterpart, Kevin McHale.

The Mavericks have won five in a row against the Rockets at home, going 4-1 ATS. Dallas also is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home contests. Houston is 13-19 on the road, 14-17-1 ATS.

It comes down to this: The Lakers can't lose this game to the Hornets and expect to make the playoffs.

It's a back-to-back spot for the Lakers and Kobe Bryant is hurting. But I see the Lakers sucking it up and beating the Hornets, a team they have dominated and own a huge talent edge against.

The Hornets are 21-40, last in the Southwest Division. They dropped 15 of their last 17 to the Lakers, including the past nine. Los Angeles has won the past five times in New Orleans.

The Hornets blew a 17-point second-half lead at home to Orlando, which ranks with Charlotte as the worst team in the NBA, in a 105-102 loss two nights ago. It was the Hornets' sixth loss in their last eight games. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

This is a huge revenge spot for VCU. I see the Rams burying the Spiders.

VCU is 14-2 at home. The Rams are 7-1 in their last eight games overall. Richmond is 3-9 on the road. The Spiders are 3-12-2 ATS on the road versus foes with a winning home record. The Rams are 7-3 ATS at home.

Richmond beat the Rams, 84-76, in overtime as nine-point 'dogs on Jan. 24. The Spiders made 12 of 27 3-point attempts in that game. That was the most 3's VCU has given up all season. VCU, by contrast, missed 14 of 17 shots from beyond the arc. Each team averages eight 3-pointers per game.

The Rams have covered the last six times when hosting the Spiders.

This is a crucial game for the Jazz, who right now are holding down last playoff spot in the West. The Jazz opened their four-game road trip losing to the Bucks, 109-108 in overtime, this past Monday. The Jazz outrebounded Milwaukee, 59-42, despite not having injured Al Jefferson but shot just 40.4 percent from the floor.

After this matchup, the Jazz play back-to-back games at the Bulls and Knicks Friday and Saturday. Then they have a home game versus Detroit followed by another road game this time against powerful Oklahoma City. So the Jazz could be looking at going 1-3 in their next four games.

The Jazz probably aren't going to have Jefferson again, but they should dominate the boards against the Cavaliers, who are minus their best rebounder and defender, Anderson Varejao. The Jazz grabbed 30 more boards than Cleveland when they beat the Cavaliers at home, 109-98, back on Jan. 19.

Derrick Favors and Paul Millsap combined for 45 points and 29 rebounds versus the Bucks. Center Enis Kanter has filled in well for Jefferson, too. There's also the strong possibility the Jazz could finally get back starting point guard Mo Williams for this game.

The Celtics are rested and hot having won and covered 11 of their last 15 games. Despite losing Rajon Rondo for the season, the Celtics have proven to be feisty and gutsy.

The 76ers, on the other hand, are a dead team. They are seven games behind the Bucks for the final playoff spot in the East. Philadelphia plays 15 of its last 24 games on the road, where it has dropped 10 in a row. So the 76ers know they aren't going to make the postseason.

It seems like the 76ers have quit on coach Doug Collins. Or maybe it's the other way around.

Boston has failed to cover in seven of its last eight visits to Philadelphia, but the situation is in the Celtics' favor. Boston has been idle the past four days. The 76ers are playing for the third time in four days.

Perhaps the 76ers rise up and smack the Celtics. But the 76ers haven't done anything all season, so why should this matchup be any different?

Motivation with the home 'dog has a lot to do with this handicap. Buffalo is tied for fourth in the Mid-American Conference with Kent State and Eastern Michigan, who hold the tiebreaker advantage. In the MAC, the top five finishers avoid a first-round playoff game and advance straight to the conference tournament.

So this is a huge game for the Bulls. It's also senior night in Buffalo. The Bulls should have decent crowd support. Ohio has locked up the No. 2 seed in the conference, but it's highly unlikely it can move up or down from that spot.

Ohio has the better record and beat the Bulls, 86-68, at home on Jan. 9. Buffalo, however, is playing better. The Bulls are 4-2 in their last six conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups. Note that three of these foes were plus .500 teams in the conference. The Bulls beat Akron, 81-67, at home this past Saturday as a 6 1/2-point 'dog. It was the Zips' first MAC loss of the season and ended their 13-game conference win streak.

Sparked by senior guard Tony Watson's hot-shooting, the Bulls are averaging 76 points during their last five games. Watson has made 23 of his last 38 shots from beyond the arc. The Bulls also get scoring inside from forward Javon McCrea, who averages 20.1 points a game and is hitting 56.4 percent of his shots from the floor.

Yes, I realize Golden State is desperate for a victory coming home after four consecutive road losses.

Still, this is not a good spot for the Warriors, especially laying points to an underrated road club that still harbors playoffs hopes, even if those hopes may be unrealistic.

Toronto has only had one bad loss during its last nine road games. During their past nine road matchups, the Raptors have won four games straight-up, including knocking off the Pacers, Knicks and Wizards. The Raptors lost by one point to Atlanta and dropped four other games in overtime, including tough losses to the Heat, Bulls and Bucks in their last game minus Rudy Gay.

The Raptors had won seven of their first 10 after trading for Gay, who missed last Saturday's game against the Bucks due to back spasms. I like the Raptors, with or without Gay even though he's expected to play.

Golden State has injuries of its own and are playing for the fifth time in seven days. This is the Warriors' first home game since Feb. 22 so they might not have their full focus coming back from such an extended road trip. The Warriors have six consecutive home contests after this one leaving more reason to doubt if the Warriors will have their full focus and motivation.

I see North Carolina State setting aside its road woes and beating Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack have won four of their last five with only a road loss at North Carolina. They are 18-8 ATS following a straight-up victory.

Georgia Tech is off a big home win against Maryland. The Yellow Jackets are 6-21 ATS following a straight-up victory.

North Carolina State has covered during its last five visits to Georgia Tech. NCS beat Georgia Tech by 13 points when the teams met in January.

Early on the Heat had problems on the road. But that's not the case anymore. Miami has won its last five road contests by an average of 16.2 points a game. The Heat are rested, too. This is their first away matchup since Feb. 21.

The Knicks have won three in a row, but are not playing nearly as well as they did earlier in the season when they opened 18-5. The Knicks are just 17-15 in their last 32 games. New York had lost five of six before dispatching the 76ers, struggling Warriors and Wizards. The Knicks didn't have an easy time in any of those matchups.

Miami is playing its best ball winning 13 in a row. The Heat have double revenge and want to put on an impressive show at Madison Square Garden. They are the far superior team and will be highly motivated.

The Bulls aren't playing well enough, nor have enough offense to lay this many points against a team that has more wins than they do.

Chicago finished February going 5-8. The Bulls are 28th in scoring at 92.6 points per game and have been a terrible spread team through their first 30 games at United Center covering just 26 percent of their home contests.

The Bulls are averaging only 85.7 points a game during their past seven matchups. They have shot under 40 percent in four of their last seven games. Chicago was fortunately to draw the 76ers at home this past Thursday. They beat the hapless 76ers, 93-82. The 76ers are one of the few teams in a worse offensive funk than the Bulls.

The Nets are sure to be energized for this matchup after playing poorly last night in a 98-90 home loss to Dallas. Fiery P.J. Carlesimo, who has done an excellent job replacing Avery Johnson, should have the Nets motivated and playing hard after last night's stinker.

Brooklyn has played better on the road going 4-1 while holding foes to 90.8 points per game during this span.

I'm not going to Einstein this. I just want the Blue Devils going for me. If ever there was a revenge spot worth playing, this is the one.

Miami embarrassed the Blue Devils winning by 27 at Coral Gables, Fla., on Jan. 23. The Blue Devils shot less than 30 percent from the floor. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski was fuming. It was Duke's worst regular-season loss in nearly 30 years.

Making things worse for Duke is the Blue Devils got knocked off 73-68 on the road by Virginia this past Thursday. Now the Blue Devils really need this game.

Duke had won eight of its past nine until falling to Virginia. The Blue Devils have played the nation's second most difficult schedule and have defeated five top-50 teams on neutral floors. Now they're at Cameron Indoor Stadium where they they have won 92 of the last 97 times.

Miami is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Hurricanes are averaging just 55 points during their last two away matchups.

Gonzaga is on the verge of claiming its first-ever No.1 ranking. The Bulldogs just clinched the West Coast Conference title with a tough 70-65 road win against BYU two days ago. It's also Senior Day at McCarthey Athletic Center so the Bulldogs have a lot of distractions.

There's also the overconfidence/letdown factor. Gonzaga has owned Portland beating the Pilots 34 of 35 times.

Is Portland going to upset Gonzaga? No, but this spread is too high considering the various situational factors. Yes, the Bulldogs have owned the Pilots. They've won the last 19 in this series by an average of less than 18 points per game. They beat Portland, 71-49, at Portland on Jan. 17. That was a 22-point victory on Jan. 17.

Portland is by no means a good team, but the Pilots have played better lately covering four of their last six. It's doubtful that Gonzaga leaves its starters in that long against Portland leaving the backdoor wide open.

The Mavericks should be well focused in must-win spots if they hope to make the playoffs and off a third consecutive loss this one coming this past Wednesday when they blew a 25-point lead in a 90-84 road loss to the Grizzlies.

The Mavericks have covered eight of their last nine road games. Dirk Nowitzki has been playing better. Dallas is 19-4 versus the Nets, including 5-1 during the last six meetings.

The Nets have a shorthanded backcourt with Marshon Brooks out and Joe Johnson questionable. The Nets have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home games.

The Celtics have won their last seven home games. They have covered four of the last five times as home chalk.

Golden State is 1-7 in its last eight road games with its only win and cover during this road span coming against the hapless Timberwolves by one point. The Warriors are back to playing horrid defense giving up an average of 113.1 points during these last eight road contests. They have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when facing a foe with a winning record.

Boston has been idle since Monday while the Warriors are facing serious fatigue issues as this marks their fourth road game in six days. The Warriors have lost during their past four visits to Boston.

I see Princeton getting revenge after suffering a 69-57 road loss to Harvard three games ago.

Since that defeat, the Tigers blew out Columbia and Cornell on the road. They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 Ivy League games.

Princeton also has covered in six of the last eight meetings in this series and is 4-0 ATS at home versus Harvard.

The wrong team is favored here. San Francisco has won six of its last 10. The Dons have enjoyed great success, too, at San Diego winning during their last six visits. They are 6-1 overall during the last seven games between the two teams.

The Dons' one defeat during this span came earlier this season at home, 70-66. San Francisco made just eight of 31 shots from beyond the arc. The Dons are shooting much better now making 43.7 percent of their 3-pointers during their last three games. If that figure was computed for the entire season, the Dons would easily lead the nation in 3-point shooting.

Consequently, San Diego is having problems with its shooting. The Toreros haven't broken the 52-point barrier during their past four games, all losses.

San Francisco has been a strong money-maker on the road going 33-16-2 ATS during its past 51 away contests.

San Francisco has revenge, is shooting well while San Diego isn't and has a strong history covering road games, especially when playing the Toreors on the road.

These teams are going in opposite directions. North Carolina is peaking with three straight double-digit victories. The Tar Heels have proven themselves on the road, too, in the ACC beating Florida State, Boston College and Georgia Tech.

Clemson has dropped five of its last six. The Tigers are eighth in the ACC. The Tigers lost at Florida State and Boston College. They defeated Georgia Tech by three at home, a team North Carolina defeated by 12 on the road.

The Tar Heels rank first in the conference in steals and assists. The Tar Heels are more athletic than Clemson and average 17 more points per game than the Tigers. Clemson's young backcourt is going to have problems handling the speed and athleticism of North Carolina.

North Carolina has a strong mental edge in this series having won 14 of the last 15 times, including the past four.

San Diego State won the first meeting between these two teams, 55-34. I look for the Lobos to get their revenge. They are still embarrassed about their lack of scoring in that game, the fewest they have scored in more than 20 years.

The Lobos are 6-0 at home in Mountain West Conference play, 5-0-1 ATS. Overall, they are 13-1 at the Pit and 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 lined games and 20-8-2 during their past 30 home matchups.

The combination of the Lobos being in good form, having revenge and playing in The Pit puts me on New Mexico. The Lobos are a mind-boggling 102-12 there during the past eight seasons. This time they will take advantage of their height advantage against San Diego State and win convincingly.

Both Toronto and Cleveland are much improved teams. But the rested Raptors catch the Cavaliers in a tough scheduling spot and probably without their emerging superstar guard Kyrie Irving, who is expected to sit out a second straight game to rest a sore knee.

The Raptors have done the job versus sub .400 teams going 14-3 ATS. The Raptors also have covered in their past six away matchups.

Cleveland is coming off an impressive road upset of the Bulls, 101-98. That win snapped an 11-game Cavaliers' losing streak against Chicago. It was a highly satisfying victory for Cleveland. The Cavaliers, though, had to exert maximum effort to accomplish that minus Irving.

Now the Cavaliers return home to play without rest, or any time to settle in. This marks their fourth game in five days. That's tough on a depth-shy squad. Keep in mind, too, it's not just Irving who is out. The Cavaliers' best frontcourt player, Anderson Varejao, is out, too.

The Raptors have covered during their past four visits to Cleveland.

Western Michigan has not fared well at Toledo going 2-10-1 ATS. This is a huge revenge spot for the Rockets, who lost at Western Michigan by 23 points.

Since beating Toledo, Western Michigan has gone just 2-2. Toledo, on the other hand, has won seven of its last eight going 6-2 ATS. The Rockets are tough at home covering 10 of the last 14 times.

The Huskies have been underdogs four times in Colonial Athletic Association action and won all four times straight-up. All four were road games, too. Northeastern has covered in six of its last eight road matchups and is 12-2 in its last 14 overall contests.

Georgia State is 2-8 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage above .600.

Phoenix can be dangerous at home having posted victories against the Lakers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Jazz and Nuggets at US Airways Center. The Suns also have compiled a 15-7 ATS home mark versus foes with a losing road record.

Minnesota has lost 13 of its last 15 road contests. The Timberwolves are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 away matchups. They go on the road after blowing a lead this past Sunday at home in a one-point loss to Golden State.

Both teams clearly are playing the string out, hopelessly out of the playoffs. I look for the Suns, though, to play hard at home. This matchup comes in between games against the Spurs, who the Suns last played and who they play next.

Phoenix interim coach Lindsey Hunter has started to experiment with his rotation giving twins Marcus and Markieff Morris and Wes Johnson more playing time. Johnson used to play for the Timberwolves. A maximum home effort should be forthcoming from Phoenix.

Wake Forest has become a dangerous foe when playing at home - as Miami found out this past Saturday. But the Demon Deacons still can't win on the road and they are in a massive letdown spot traveling after upsetting then-second ranked Miami ending the Hurricanes' 14-game win streak and unbeaten ACC record.

Wake Forest isn't going to be ready to face the revenge-minded Seminoles at Tallahassee. The Demon Deacons are 1-22 in ACC road competition during the three-year Jeff Bzdelik era. The Demon Deacons have lost all seven of their ACC away games this year with five of the defeats coming by at least 16 points.

Florida State has a better overall record than Wake Forest. The Seminoles were three-point road favorites against the Demon Deacons when they met on Feb. 9 and lost by 25 points. That humiliation is still fresh enough in the minds of the Seminoles that they certainly won't lack for intensity. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are in a huge down spot following their big win against the Hurricanes.

Not only can Utah, with its tall, physical frontline, cause Boston problems on the boards but the Jazz are in a great situational spot, too.

The Celtics are playing their fifth road game in seven days and third in four nights. The Celtics have key injuries and a lot of age.

Boston isn't a good road nor a good rebounding club. The Celtics rank dead last in rebounding margin. They are 6-14 ATS during their past 20 away contests.

Utah has one of the strongest homecourts. The Jazz have covered 61 percent of their games in Salt Lake City this season. They have won six of their last seven home matchups. In their last two, the Jazz defeated the Warriors by 14 points and the mighty Thunder by 15.

The Jazz are helped by having sixth man Gordon Hayward back from injury.

Boston has failed to cover 13 of its last 19 road games and is 1-7 straight-up when playing Western Conference foes on the road. That lone win came against Phoenix, the worst team in the West.

The Celtics have multiple injuries. Their key players are old and this marks their four road game in six days. Portland doesn't have a strong bench, but Wesley Matthews has returned from an injury and the Trail Blazers are playing for just the third time in 11 days.

Portland is one of the toughest venues to play at. The Trail Blazers have won of their last five home games, including defeating the Pacers, Clippers, Mavericks and Jazz during this span. The Trail Blazers did lose in their last home game, a surprising 102-98 loss to the Suns this past Tuesday. The Trail Blazers are anxious to make amends for that embarrassment.

Miami is playing great. I acknowledge that. But this is an excellent spot for an improving and motivated Cavaliers squad to cover what I see is an inflated number.

The Heat just finished a perfect 4-0 road trip last night at Philadelphia. They are returning home - with all of the Southern Miami distractions - without rest. This marks Miami's fourth game in five days. The Heat don't have a strong bench and could be missing Mike Miller again.

Cleveland is playing well. The Cavaliers have covered six of their last eight. They, too, played last night on the road rolling past Orlando, 118-94. It was the Cavaliers' most lopsided victory of the season. Cleveland coach Byron Scott was able to rest his starters the entire fourth quarter.

It was the seventh time in the last eight chances the Cavaliers have covered versus an Eastern Conference team.

Cleveland still has a chip on its shoulders about LeBron James departing to Miami. This should ensure a full effort. The Cavaliers historically have played the Heat tough in Miami covering during six of their last eight visits. The Heat just nipped the Cavaliers by two during the first meeting this season.

This is my 100-Dime play. Golden State has 12 more victories than Minnesota this season and its confidence is soaring after coming up with perhaps its strongest defensive effort in a 107-101 overtime home win this past Friday. That victory halted a 16-game losing streak to the Spurs.

The Warriors are right there for a playoff berth. A loss to the lowly Timberwolves would be extremely painful as this is the beginning of a five-game road trip for Golden State. The Warriors play back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday against the Pacers and Knicks followed by a game at Boston on Friday and then at Philadelphia on Saturday, which would be their fourth road game in five days. Since the Warriors don't figure to be favored in any of the other road games during this trip this becomes almost a must-win situation.

The Timberwolves have lost 17 of their last 21 games. They are 1-9-2 ATS during their past 12 games versus an opponent with a winning record. Injuries have zapped their morale.

Golden State has dominated Minnesota winning the past four times. The Warriors are 9-2 during their last 11 visits to Minnesota, covering seven of the last eight times on the road against the Timberwolves.

The spread has gotten high enough where the home 'dog is worth backing.

Yes, Miami and LeBron James are playing great. But consider the situation. This is Miami's fourth of a four-game road trip. The Heat have won all three games in impressive style beating the Thunder, Hawks and Bulls all by convincing margins. They return home after this game to face the Cavaliers on Sunday. Miami won't be going on the road again until next weekend. So the Heat are going to have to cover this game probably while being on cruise control.

Even winning and covering the first three games on their road trip, the Heat aren't anything special on the road with a 13-13 ATS mark.

The 76ers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA. Yet they still are within striking distance of gaining a playoff berth. Philadelphia last played on Wednesday. The 76ers are rested and play better at home where they have covered seven of their past 10 games.

This is a stop-the-pain matchup for Philadelphia, which has lost three in a row. Doug Collins will have his team playing hard in this game.

Stressing again, the 76ers play better at home. Since Jan. 12, the 76ers have posted home victories against the Rockets, much improved Raptors, much improved Wizards and Knicks. They lost to the Grizzlies by three and fell to the Spurs, the best road team in the NBA, by just five.

Creighton appeared to be a lock to make the NCAA Tournament last month. But going just 5-5 in their last 10 games has raised doubt about the Bluejays' chances. Now along comes this Bracketbusters game that the Bluejays are highly motivated to win.


Creighton beat Long Beach State in a Bracketbusters game last season and I see the Bluejays repeating the feat against another California foe.


I rate these teams as close to even so it's worth taking this many points with a highly motivated underdog.


St. Mary

Boston is not a good road team. But Phoenix is plain awful whether home or away. The Suns have failed to cover in six of their last eight home games.

This is the third of a five-game road trip for Boston. The Celtics already have lost at Denver and at the Lakers. They have Portland and Utah next up. Those are two of the most difficult teams to beat at home. So this becomes a crucial game for the Celtics.

The Celtics should be pumped up acquiring talented Jordan Crawford at the trade deadline. More important, the Celtics didn't deal any of their stars keeping Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

I don't like to play Boston as road chalk, but this is a short price and the Celtics are the better team and in a crucial win situation.

The wrong team is favored here. Stephen F. Austin is 22-3 and has an excellent player in senior Taylor Smith, who leads the nation in field goal percentage at 70.7. The Lumberjacks play outstanding defense holding foes to 49.7 points a game. They defeated Oklahoma earlier this season.

Long Beach State has yet to beat a good team going 0-9 versus top 25 foes. The 49ers are 1-7 ATS when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. They also have failed to cover in their last four non-conference games.

This is a showcase matchup for Stephen F. Austin being a BracketBusters game. I look for the Lumberjacks to get the job done.

The Nuggets are a far superior and deeper team than Washington. They were before yesterday's trade deadline and they're even more so now that the Wizards shipped out Jordan Crawford, their third-leading scorer, to Boston for injured Leandro Barbosa and little-used Jason Collins.

The Nuggets will be taking this matchup very serious after suffering a rare home loss to the Wizards on Jan. 18.

Denver has dominated the Wizards on the road winning seven of the last nine. Point guard Ty Lawson is playing extremely well and can negate John Wall. The Wizards are thin in the backcourt and they can't match the Nuggets' depth in the frontcourt.

Rarely will I fade San Antonio on the road. The Spurs have the best road mark in the NBA. But I believe the Clippers will be sky-high for this nationally televised matchup where they want to make a statement that they rank with the Heat, Thunder and Spurs as an elite powerhouse. This is their opportunity.

It takes more than motivation to beat the Spurs. I understand that. I'm not thrilled with laying more than a basket, so I'm taking LA on the money line. I want the Clippers going for me in this matchup.

Finally with a healthy Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, the Clippers were playing great heading into All-Star break winning their past four games by an average of 16.2 points.

The Clippers are going to get their points. The key for them is shutting down Tony Parker. I'll take Chris Paul over any point guard, but Parker is having a magnificent season. The Clippers, though, have handled Parker this season holding him to a combined 15 points in two November victories against the Spurs.

Despite those two earlier victories, the Clippers have much to prove against the Spurs, who swept them in the playoffs last season. Not only have the Clippers done the job against Parker, but they have DeAndre Jordan and Griffin to bottle up Tim Duncan inside. If the Spurs are going to win, they'll need to hit a high number of perimeter shots.

I'll go for the motivated home team that has the talent and is the right form to beat the Spurs.

Yes, Louisiana Monroe isn't very good. But Western Kentucky certainly isn't a strong enough team to lay double-digits in this Sun Belt Conference matchup.

The Hilltoppers have failed to cover in seven of their last eight Sun Belt matchups and are ranked 205th in the Sagarin ratings.

Western Kentucky won the first meeting between the two teams, 65-54. However, the Warhawks trailed by just four with about three and a half minutes left before falling by 11. In that game, Monroe lost its leading scorer, guard Amos Olatayo. He is back now and playing well.

This has been a road team series with the visitor covering seven of the last nine times.