You have to really pick your spots carefully if backing the 76ers. This is one of those spots.




The 76ers desperately need a win having lost four in a row, three straight at home. They have been idle since Saturday.




Philadelphia catches Charlotte playing for the fourth time in six days and for the second consecutive night. The Bobcats beat the Knicks at home Tuesday night, a hugely satisfying win for them.




The Bobcats shouldn't be that hungry going into this matchup. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road matchups and have lost five straight times at Philadelphia.




This will be the fifth time since Dec. 20 that the Bobcats are playing without rest. They are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in those games.

After meeting with President Obama on Tuesday, the Heat don't want to embarrass themselves by losing to the Wizards. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Heat off losses to the Knicks and Nets. LeBron James fouled out for the first time in a regular season since 2008 in the loss to the Nets. Expect a big game from James.



The Heat haven't been healthy. Neither Dwayne Wade nor Shane Battier played against the Nets. Both are expected to play today. There's a chance, too, the Heat could get back injured Mario Chalmers.



The Heat have only lost once to the Wizards with James in the lineup.



Washington has struggled at home losing seven of the past eight times.



The Wizards have also failed to cover six of the last eight times when playing a foe with a winning record. Miami is 17-6 ATS following a loss.

Arkansas walloped Kentucky at home last season, 73-60, and I see the Razorbacks doing it again this season. The home/road splits clearly indicate this.



Arkansas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home contests. The Razorbacks average nearly 16 more points per game at home than on the road Kentucky is 1-9-2 ATS during its past 12 road matchups and have historically struggled in Fayetteville.



The Razorbacks had won 23 straight at Bud Walton Arena until losing in overtime to 10th-ranked Florida this past Saturday.



The Razorbacks lead the SEC in assists. They have three solid guards. Arkansas is averaging more than 94 points a game during its last four home contests.



Arkansas also has the upfront defense to contain Kentucky star Julius Randle.

Toronto has improved its defense since dealing Rudy Gay ranking among the leaders in fewest points allowed per 100 possessions. The under has cashed in six of Toronto's last seven games.



Milwaukee is last in field goal percentage and second from the bottom in scoring. The Bucks are averaging 79 points during their last three games. Don't expect the Bucks' scoring to start increasing by a lot either as Milwaukee is playing rookies in what clearly is a rebuilding season.



The Bucks, though, are a respectable 14th in points allowed. They have the shot blockers to not give up easy points in the paint. Toronto is just 25th in field goal percentage.

Kill spot for Portland. The Celtics nearly upset Golden State last night, but lost by two. Boston has now lost 13 in a row to Western Conference clubs. It's obvious the Celtics can't match Western Conference clubs' athleticism, speed and talent.



Portland is 16-7-1 ATS versus Eastern Conference foes. The Trail Blazers last played on Wednesday and won't play again until next Wednesday.



Boston, though, is playing its fourth road game in five days and second in two nights. So both the situation and matchup are bad for the Celtics.

The Suns have been one of the biggest surprises in the league going 21-13. However, the Suns are 0-2 versus the Grizzlies losing to Memphis by an average of 14 points.



The Grizzlies are playing better, covering seven of their last nine including the past four, and catch the Suns dealing with a major injury. Phoenix is 5-5 without guard Eric Bledsoe, its second leading scorer. Bledsoe is out indefinitely with a knee injury. The Suns are 5-5 without him.



Phoenix pulled out a victory at Minnesota two nights ago scoring the last seven points en route to a 104-103 win against the Timberwolves. This spot isn't so favorable as it marks Phoenix's third road game in four days. The Suns are at Detroit on Saturday, which is an easier game for them so coach Jeff Hornacek may gear up for that matchup by playing his reserves more.



Mike Conley is having a career year for the Grizzlies, who have received improved bench play and solid scoring and rebounding from veteran Zach Randolph.

Arizona State has problems with up-tempo teams and catches USC, off a humiliating 107-73 loss to UCLA this past Sunday. The Trojans can't wait to get back on the court after suffering through nearly a week of embarrassment. This has been a close series with seven of the last nine games determined on the last two possessions. The home team is 10-4-1 ATS. USC is helped by getting back J.T. Terrell from suspension.

These two teams met just 10 days ago and Pepperdine knocked off BYU, 80-74.



Revenge means something, but this line is too out of whack especially since the Cougars might be without star freshman forward Eric Mika, who is averaging 16 points and six boards per game. He suffered a hip bruise in BYU's last game, an 87-53 win against San Diego.



BYU has failed to cover 22 of the last 29 times when winning its previous game by more than 20 points. Pepperdine is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.



The Wave can take advantage of Mika's possible absence with big men Stacy Davis and Brendan Lane.

The Pelicans are a horrible road team. But they have a winning spread record in New Orleans where they've won four in a row defeating the Trail Blazers, Nuggets, Grizzlies and Pistons.




Ryan Anderson is out indefinitely with a herniated disk, but center Jason Smith is back after missing seven of the last eight games with a shoulder injury. The Wizards are going to have trouble up front containing emerging superstar Anthony Davis.




The Pelicans step way down in class after suffering losses to Indiana and Miami in their last two games.




Washington's strength is its backcourt. But New Orleans' point guard Jrue Holiday is much better at home where he averages 17.4 points and has made better than 51 percent of his 3-point shots.

Oklahoma City isn't the same team without Russell Westbrook. The Thunder have lost their last two home games - falling to Portland and Brooklyn.

The Thunder should be primed to end their home losing streak, but have to deal with some fatigue playing for the third time in four days and second in two days after coming from 13 points behind in the fourth quarter to beat the Timberwolves in Minnesota.

The Thunder are 0-5 ATS following a victory. The Celtics are playing tough defense holding their last foes - the Pelicans, Bulls and Hawks - to an average of 93.6 points. Boston usually can be counted on for a strong effort under first-year coach Brad Stevens.

The Celtics have proven tough in defending against the 3-point shot ranking second in the league.

Atlanta is a much stronger team at home where it has gone 12-4 while averaging 103.3 points. The Hawks have covered 62 percent of their home contests this season.

Atlanta's star power is down with Josh Smith and Joe Johnson on other teams and Al Horford out for probably the season. But the Hawks are a decent team that is resourceful and knows how to spread the floor and frustrate a run-and-gun opponent such as Golden State.

The Warriors are playing well, but this is a bad spot for them. They just upset Miami in overtime last night and now have to play again, their third road game in four days. All of their starters except one had to play big minutes in the victory against the Heat.

Atlanta, on the other hand, comes in well rested and well prepared having last played on Tuesday.

The Pelicans have won two in a row. Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans are back from injuries and playing well. Davis is going to be highly motivated
facing Dwight Howard.

The Rockets are caught in a difficult situational spot. This is their third game in four days. The Rockets have beaten the Spurs and Grizzlies in their last two games. They have a far bigger matchup than this one on tap at Oklahoma City on Sunday.

Houston is 1-6 ATS following a victory and missing injured point guard
Patrick Beverly. The absence of Beverly means more minutes for the highly
overrated Jeremy Lin.

Classic sandwich spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder are off an impressive 123-94 victory against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden and have far more important games on tap - hosting Houston on Sunday and Portland on Tuesday.



This is a rest spot for the Thunder and it couldn't happen against a better 'dog team than the Bobcats, who have covered 11 of the past 13 times when taking points.



The Thunder are red-hot, but the Bobcats are playing well, too, winning four of their last five.



Charlotte has perhaps the most underrated defense in the league ranking third in fewest points and defensive field goal percentage.

The Clippers have been idle since Sunday. That's too much time off and means rust. The Clippers also have the largest drop on offensive efficiency of any team when playing on the road compared to being at home in Staples Center.

Los Angeles has been playing stronger defense lately under Doc Rivers, too. The under has cashed in seven of the Clippers' last 10 games.

The Warriors have been playing much better, too, since their best defender, Andre Iguodala, returned from injury. They have held three of their last four foes under 40 percent shooting from the floor.

The new-look Raptors don't know they're supposed to be a lottery team after dealing Rudy Gay. They've won five of seven after nipping Dallas in overtime on the road then posting a monster upset of Oklahoma City on Sunday dealing the Thunder its first home defeat of the season.



But the timing is all wrong in this matchup for Toronto. They draw a rested and healthy Spurs team itching to get back on the winning side after an embarrassing 13-point home loss to Oklahoma City this past Saturday.



The Spurs aren't in the class of Oklahoma City, Indiana, Portland and Miami right now. But they still are darn good and at their best crushing inferior foes covering four the past five times when laying more than nine points.



San Antonio is 9-1 versus Eastern Conference foes and has beaten Toronto six straight times. The Spurs rank second in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Toronto is weak defending against 3-pointers and is a cold shooting team.



The Raptors return home for the holidays after this matchup not playing again until Friday. I don't see them being as emotionally up for this matchup after two straight impressive road victories. It's going to take a strong effort for Toronto to hang close and that's not likely to happen. The Spurs should be up for this home matchup and they have the shooters to take advantage of Toronto's weaknesses.

The Suns did it again last night. They came from behind to upset Denver on the road. The Mavericks also played last night, but they blew a huge lead and lost to Toronto in overtime.



So a focused effort should be forthcoming from the Mavericks, who have won and covered in 11 of their last 13 games versus Phoenix. Dallas has covered in five of its last six visits to Phoenix.



The Mavericks have proven excellent value on the road covering 73 percent of their last 37 away contests. They also have been a huge money-maker without rest going 12-3 ATS the past 15 times in that situation.



I like Phoenix far more in an underdog role. The Suns have lost straight-up four of the past five times when playing in the second of back-to-back games.

This is a funny situational spot for Minnesota. The Gophers haven't played in 10 days and won't play for another week after this game. So some rust is expected. Motivation could lack, too.



Nebraska-Omaha shouldn't lack for motivation having four players on its team from Minnesota, which is three more than the Gophers have.



The Mavericks have proven pesky in winning five in a row while covering in five of their last six non-conference games. The Mavericks upset Nevada six days ago. They lost to UNLV by 3, Iowa by 8 and Drake by 8. All of those games were on the road.



The Mavericks can score points in bunches. They average 84.5 points a game, which is 22nd best in the country.

The Spurs just nipped the Warriors 76-74 at home last month. The Warriors were missing Stephen Curry in that game while the Spurs had Tony Parker.

Now that situation is reversed with the Spurs minus the injured Parker. The Warriors also have Andre Iguodala back in their lineup.

The Spurs are playing their third road game in four nights and second in two nights after getting past Phoenix last night. San Antonio has lost 11 of the past 14 times in the last three years with zero rest as a road 'dog.

This is a statement game for the Warriors, who now that they are healthy want to prove they can beat an elite team. This is their opportunity.

Rookie coach Brad Stevens is dong a nice job with youthful Boston. But the Celtics aren't as good as Detroit and playing at home isn't enough to compensate for that. The Pistons, with their physical interior play, are a bad matchup for Boston.




The Pistons have proven themselves against elite competition. Just two nights ago, Detroit ended Indiana's 11-0 home star with a five-point victory outrebounding the physical Pacers, 55-40. This was just one day after the Pistons nearly upset Portland losing by two in overtime. Those two teams have the two best records in the NBA. They are a combined 42-8. Boston is a whole another planet away from being in the class of the Pacers and Trail Blazers.




Already this month the Pistons have not only won at Indiana, but also at Miami, Chicago and Milwaukee. Detroit is the only team in the NBA to rank in the top 10 in rebounding margin, blocked shots and forced turnovers. The Pistons rate fourth in rebounding margin. Boston is 18th. The Celtics have proven vulnerable in the paint.




The teams met in Detroit on Nov. 3 and the Pistons won 87-77 holding the Celtics to their lowest point total and forcing a Boston high in turnovers. The Celtics could not handle highly improved Andre Drummond, who had 10 dunks.

The Wizards are off a tough road overtime loss to Atlanta last night. They nearly pulled the victory out after being down 15 points in the fourth quarter. Now they are playing without rest. The Clippers were idle last night, but struggled in a loss to the Nets on Thursday.



This is the Clippers' final game of a seven-game road trip. They are 3-3 during the trip. Following the loss to the Nets, Chris Paul said it was crucial the Clippers finish with a winning road trip and that this matchup against the Wizards is crucial. I'm taking Paul at his word.



I'm expecting a focused and strong effort from the Clippers. Los Angeles has covered seven of the past 10 times following a non-cover. The Clippers and Doc Rivers have faced a lot of distractions on this road trip, including playing his former team the Celtics and two of his key former players, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, when playing the Nets.



The Clippers are far more talented than the Wizards and a focused effort should enable them to cover this spread.

Golden State doesn't match up well to the Rockets. That's evident in the Rockets defeating the Warriors in 18 of the last 21 matchups while covering 15 times.

The latest matchup came this past Friday in Houston with the Rockets burying the Warriors, 105-83.

Golden State lacks the perimeter defense to slow down James Harden, who scored 34 during the last meeting, nor the interior defenders to control Dwight Howard, who scored 22 points and pulled down 18 rebounds in that last game. Houston blocked nine shots in that victory and forced 22 turnovers.

Houston lost to the Trail Blazers last night on the road. However, the Rockets have won four of five times this season when playing without rest and were idle this past Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. They also have Jeremy Lin back to bolster their backcourt.

It may be a stretch to assume the Knicks have much pride, but they sure can't forget about being totally humiliated at home this past Sunday in losing 114-73 to Boston. That was the most lopsided loss of the season.

Feeling less pressure away from the Big Apple, the Knicks have a winning spread record on the road compared to being 2-9 ATS at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks surrender eight fewer points per game when on the road.

Despite their slow start, the Knicks are just 2 1/2 games behind the Celtics in the weakened Atlantic Division. So the intensity level should be very high.

The Knicks have covered in four of their last five visits to Boston. They also are 7-0 ATS the past seven times they've played on Friday.

Maryland is off to a slow start, but the Terrapins catch Boston College at a good time in their ACC opener. The Eagles' confidence is down following back-to-back losses to Purdue and USC by a combined 37 points.



The Eagles have yet to get things together as the team still is in an adjustment period.



Maryland's key is getting more consistent point guard production. That should start to come now with the elevation of talented freshman Roddy Peters to starting point guard. Peters leads the team in assists despite coming off the bench in all but two games.



Maryland has covered seven of its last nine road games for 78 percent.

The Kings are a much higher scoring team with the addition of Rudy Gay and Derrick Williams upgrading the frontline. They make DeMarcus Cousins even more of an inside scoring threat.

The Kings also are better off offensively with Isaiah Thomas now installed as the full-time point guard.

Utah has picked up its scoring since Alec Burks became healthy. Utah has scored at least 98 points in five of its last seven.

So much for the Suns tanking. Phoenix is 11-9 and owners of a two-game win streak. I like them to keep their win streak going against a banged-up Lakers team breaking in a rusty Kobe Bryant.


Phoenix should be well-rested and prepared having been idle since beating the Raptors, 106-97, five days ago. The Lakers just lost to the Raptors, 106-94, at home this past Sunday in Bryant's season-debut. Bryant missed seven of nine shots from the field and turned the ball over eight times. It's going to take more than one game for Bryant to get comfortable returning from a torn Achilles' tendon.


It's not just Bryant. The Lakers' backcourt is near depleted with Steve Nash sidelined and Jordan Farmar out with a hamstring injury. Steve Blake is their only available true point guard. Pau Gasol's defense has slipped as he deals with an ankle injury.


The Lakers have received decent bench play, but Phoenix is deep, too, with eight players averaging 9.7 points a game or more. The Suns hold a strong backcourt edge with Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic. The Lakers have had matchup problems with Dragic in the past.


Phoenix has tightened its defense under first-year head coach Jeff Hornacek ranking first in defending against 3-pointers and rating 10th in defensive field-goal percentage. The Suns held Houston to 88 points in its second-to-last game. The Rockets lead the NBA in scoring at 107.5 points per game.


The Suns have covered 82 percent of their past 11 road games going 9-2 ATS. Phoenix also is 5-1 ATS in its past six meetings versus the Lakers.

Yes, the Knicks are mired in a deep slump having dropped eight in a row.


But I see this as a stop-the-pain game for New York. Many of the Knicks' losses during their losing streak were against foes on major upticks. The Knicks very well could have won some of those games losing to Indiana in overtime and to the Nuggets, who are playing outstanding now with five straight victories, by two when Carmelo Anthony missed a shot in the final seconds.


Now the Knicks return home following that narrow loss to Denver desperate for a victory. They draw the Pelicans, a foe they've beaten eight of the last nine times.


New Orleans is 2-5 ATS on the road with straight-up away losses to the Jazz, Suns and Magic. The Pelicans buried the 76ers, 121-105, in their last road contest. However, New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a victory of more than 10 points.


The Knicks are coming very close to ending their losing streak. This is that time.

By now it's obvious that the 76ers aren't going to be the worst team in the NBA as some had projected before the season. Philadelphia is a respectable 6-9 and well-rested for this matchup against Orlando, which is in a bad situational spot.


The 76ers have been idle since Saturday. Orlando snapped a 17-game road losing streak and an 11-game losing streak to the Hawks by upsetting Atlanta, 109-92, Tuesday night.


The Magic now return home for their fourth game in five days. The Magic have failed to cover in their last five home matchups.


Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS on the road this season. The 76ers aren't likely to have Thaddeus Young back. But center Spencer Hawes and Tony Wroten are expected back after missing the 76ers' last game. Hawes is averaging 26.5 points on 72.4 percent shooting from the floor and 11 rebounds per game during his last two games.


The 76ers rank eighth in scoring at 103.7 points per game. The Magic are 0-8 when surrendering more than 92 points a game.

The Bulls were embarrassed in a blowout loss to the Clippers on Sunday in their first game without injured Derrick Rose. They are now 0-3 on their road trip and in desperate need of a victory.

Now comes Utah, a team the Bulls destroyed 97-73 earlier this month at home.

Utah is 1-14. The Jazz have lost 10 of those games by double-digits. They have lost six in a row. The Jazz are playing the lottery game in what is shaping up to be a huge draft.

The Bulls have done well without Rose before. They still have a far more talented lineup than Utah with Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler, Kirk Hinrich and Mike Dunleavy.

Dallas nearly beat the Nuggets in Denver on Saturday losing 102-100 following a late 3-point basket by Denver in the final moments.



Now the teams meet again. This time in Dallas where the Mavericks are 7-0 and averaging 111.4 points while shooting 50 percent from the floor.



Denver isn't nearly as good on the road. The Nuggets have dropped four of five away games surrendering 114 points or more in more than half of those matchups.



Dallas missed 14 of 21 shots from beyond the arc against the Nuggets on Saturday. The Mavericks shoot much better from 3-point range, especially at home.



The Mavericks also rank No. 2 in the NBA in free throw percentage at 81 percent while the Nuggets rank 27th making less than 70 percent from the charity stripe.

The marketplace is steaming Minnesota and the money is right. The Nets are in free fall having lost three in a row and six of their last seven. The Nets won't have Deron Williams, Brook Lopez, Andrei Kirilenko and Jason Terry. All are banged-up. The Nets lack any kind of scoring inside the paint minus Lopez.

Minnesota is not going to be in a charitable mood. The Timberwolves have lost two in a row. This is a Stop-The-Pain game for them. The Timberwolves are a playoff caliber team with a healthy Kevin Love.

After a slow start under new coach David Joerger the Grizzlies are playing their best ball. They are coming off a 4-0 road trip that included victories against the Clippers and Warriors.



San Antonio is hot, too, with eight straight victories. But the Spurs have been beating cupcakes with all but one of their victories during their winning streak coming against below .500 teams.



The Grizzlies desperately want to win this game. They've been pointing to this home matchup ever since being swept in the Western Conference finals by San Antonio and also losing their season-opener on the road to the Spurs.



Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, the Grizzlies' main two key inside forces, are playing well and the Grizzlies are back playing strong defense. This is the right spot for the Grizzlies to beat the Spurs.

The Pelicans are playing their best ball with the return of underrated Ryan Anderson, their leading scorer from last season. Cleveland is down in the dumps with morale issues.


Anderson has given a big boost to New Orleans' offense which is averaging 120 points in its last two games. Anderson being back has freed up emerging Anthony Davis to be even better.


The Cavaliers were expected to be improved this season, even a playoff contender for the first time in the post-LeBron James era, but have failed to meet expectations at 4-8. They are 1-6 on the road. Cleveland has failed to cover in eight of its last nine road games.


Andrew Bynum has done nothing and Dion Waiters has regressed shooting less than 38 percent.

This is my Play of the Month.

This is a big early-season revenge spot for the rested Thunder. They lost to the Clippers, 111-103, on Nov. 13. That was the game where Serge Ibaka and Matt Barnes got ejected for fighting.


The Thunder didn't have Ibaka for the second half in that game and also was missing Kendrick Perkins, who was attending his grandfather's funeral. Both will be in action tonight for the Thunder, who have been idle for the past two days.


The Clippers had to play last night and nipped Minnesota, 102-98, on the road.


Oklahoma City has been pointing to this matchup ever since that controversial game eight days ago against the Clippers. The Thunder are healthy this time around and rested.

This game means far more in prestige for Orlando than Miami. The Magic have had a four-day layoff to rest and game plan for this matchup. The Heat had to play on Tuesday night, rolling over Atlanta, 104-88, at home.


This marks the Heat's fourth game in six days and second in two nights.


Miami is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games at Orlando. The Magic have won four of their six home contests with two of their home victories coming against the Clippers and Nets.


Orlando ranks ninth in field goal percentage defense and is 10th in field goal percentage.

Cleveland is 3-1 at home, beat Washington on the road this past Saturday and catch the Wizards coming off a 104-100 overtime win at home last night against Minnesota.



The Cavaliers are the superior team and in a good situational spot. They've defeated the Wizards four consecutive times.



The Cavaliers are healthier than Washington, too, with guard Dion Waiters returning to practice after missing the past two games. The Wizards have been without Trevor Ariza in their last two games.



Cleveland had posted three consecutive home victories beating Brooklyn, Minnesota and Philadelphia before being upset by Charlotte. That home loss to the Bobcats should be a wake-up call. The Cavaliers don't want to be upset at home a second straight time.

Phoenix has surprised a lot of people opening 5-4. The Kings have been their usual disappointing selves opening 2-7.


But I like the Kings to beat Phoenix in this home-and-away matchup. The two teams meet again Wednesday night in Phoenix. The Kings don't want to be swept by the Suns.


Phoenix has dropped three of four on the road. The Suns are 5-15-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an opponent with a winning percentage below .400.


Sacramento is coming off a 97-86 Sunday night home loss to Memphis. The Kings caught the Grizzlies at a bad time as Memphis is heating up after a slow start.


New Kings coach Michael Malone pulled four of his starters just five minutes into the third quarter. I'm looking for the Kings to be fired-up for this game. They have a chance to reward their loyal fans against a bottom-tier team they have defeated during the past two meetings.


Sacramento is 7-2 ATS the last nine times after losing by double-digits.


The Suns have trouble matching up against DeMarcus Cousins, who is averaging 24.8 points in six home games against Phoenix.

I'll take this many points with Memphis in this early season showdown against Oklahoma State.


The Tigers have three tremendous senior guards. They very well could have the best backcourt in the nation. The key question for Memphis is being able to rebound.


The Tigers showed they could in their season-opening win out-rebounding Austin Peay, 50-27, in a 95-69 opening win. Memphis has excellent recruits again with Austin Nichols and Nick King.


Oklahoma State has failed to cover 13 of the last 16 times when meeting a foe with a winning record.


The Cowboys are 3-0, but their wins were against two Southwestern Athletic Conference opponents and Utah Valley State. Now they step way up in class.


There is a certain unknown factor with these two powerhouses meeting so early, but any kind of random factor is good for the underdog, especially in this price range.


The Tigers have joined the tough American Athletic Conference. They are looking at this matchup as a big test to see if they can maintain their poise on the road. They certainly have the guards to accomplish that.

Both teams are 2-0 but the spot favors Arkansas. The Razorbacks have won 16 in a row at Bud Walton Arena. Their last home loss came against powerful Syracuse. Arkansas has won 36 straight at home against unranked non-conference opponents.



The Razorbacks have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. They have won by 11 or more points in their last four home games. SMU is coming off a satisfying revenge win against Rhode Island in its first home game back at renovated Moody Coliseum. The Mustangs are 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times when playing an opponent with a winning mark.



Larry Brown is trying to upgrade the Mustangs' talent level as they make the switch from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference. The Mustangs are in transition at this very early point of the season and must deal with a tough road venue and Arkansas coach Mike Anderson's "40 Minutes of Hell" system that relies on heavy full-court pressure.

The Nets are playing well below their capabilities while the Suns have been just the exact opposite. I see that changing in this matchup.


The Nets received a rude wake-up call at Sacramento two nights ago getting blasted by the lowly Kings, 107-86. The Nets have a lot of prideful veterans and that loss stung.


Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS following a loss. One bright spot for the Nets is center Brook Lopez, he could dominate against the Suns' weak inside defense.


This is the middle game of the Nets' three-game West Coast trip. Their trip concludes tomorrow night against the Clippers, a much more difficult game for the Nets. This is the game Brooklyn needs to win - and its players know it.

The Trail Blazers enter Boston playing at a high level having won four in a row. The Celtics don't have anyone close to matching LaMarcus Aldridge and Damion Lillard. The Trail Blazers also have been getting strong contributions from Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez inside.


I believe the Celtics are far closer to the team that lost 89-83 to Charlotte at home two days ago than the one that upset the Heat on a buzzer-beater.


Portland has not been a good road team traditionally, but the Trail Blazers have won their past two away games beating the Nuggets by 15 and Kings by 11.

Chicago hasn't played well on the road and Derrick Rose is slowed by a hamstring injury. But given four days to rest and prepare for this matchup I trust defensive whiz Tom Thibodeau to have an excellent, specific game plan to stop the Raptors.


The Bulls last played on Monday. They won't lack for energy or motivation having dropped their past two games to Toronto.


The Bulls are holding foes to 78.3 points at home on 35.4 percent shooting from the floor so their defense still is there.


The Raptors need a big game from Rudy Gay, who has shot less than 40 percent career-wise versus Chicago. Gay is having a terrible shooting season making only 36.5 percent from the floor.

This is a much bigger game for the Clippers than it is for the Thunder. The Clippers have much to prove here after being swept in the season series by Oklahoma City last season.



The Clippers' offense is in high gear leading the NBA in scoring at just under 110 points a game. Their defense has shown improvement the past four games.



Chris Paul is playing better than any point guard. He's leading the league in assists at 12.4 and has produced a double-double in each of Los Angeles' first eight games.



The Clippers have yet to lose in three home games. They've blown out the Rockets by 19 and Warriors by 11 at Staples Center. The emergence of center DeAndre Jordan gives the Clippers one of the top rebounding tandems in the NBA. Both Jordan and Blake Griffin are high-percentage scorers. The Thunder didn't have to game plan against Jordan last season. Now Jordan's a factor.



Oklahoma City is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games. The Thunder have failed to cover seven of the past eight times when going up against an opponent with a winning record. Russell Westbrook has returned from knee surgery, but is struggling to find his shooting touch hitting less than 34 percent from the field.



By the end of the season, Oklahoma City very well could be the superior team. But right now this is the Clippers' spot.

The Rockets shouldn't lack for motivation after losing consecutive home games to the Lakers and Clippers. They catch the Raptors playing their fifth game in seven days and third in four days.



After this matchup, the Rockets go on the road for two games. So they should be fully focused for a kill spot.



Toronto's big star is Rudy Gay, but its most irreplaceable player is point guard Kyle Lowry. Not only is Lowry playing with a sprained tendon in his finger, but he sprained his ankle in the Raptors' last game this past Saturday. The Raptors would take a serious hit if Lowry can't go lacking quality backups at point guard.



Lowry is expected to play. How effective he is, though, remains to be seen. Jonas Valanciunas hasn't been playing well and now he's matched up against Dwight Howard.



The home team has dominated in the series going 10-1-1 ATS. Houston has beaten the Raptors the past six times when hosting them.

Texas Tech is playing just its second game under new coach Tubby Smith, who faces a huge challenge with the Red Raiders.


Northern Arizona has a tall and talented frontcourt that can hang with Texas Tech. The Lumberjacks' backcourt is shored up with the addition of junior college transfer Quinton Upshur. Northern Arizona opened with a 74-63 road victory against Texas-San Antonio.


This will be a tougher challenge, but the Lumberjacks are strong enough to keep this under double-digits. Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS the past 22 times when playing a non-conference opponent.

The Magic are angry after losing to Boston, 91-89, at home this past Friday. The Magic felt they should have won despite shooting a season-low 20 percent from 3-point range. Orlando also committed a season-high 20 turnovers against Boston.



I like the Magic's young talent more than Boston's and the situation is good, too, for the Magic.



The Celtics are off their biggest win of the season, a stunning 111-110 road victory against the two-time defending world champion Heat scoring the win in dramatic fashion on a three-pointer at the buzzer.



The Magic didn't play well in their last game, a 104-94 road loss to Atlanta two nights ago. Orlando was playing in the second of back-to-back games in that loss.



In their previous four games, though, the Magic held the Pelicans, Nets, Clippers and Celtics to a combined average of 89.2 points. Not one of those teams scored more than 91 points on Orlando. The Clippers shot just 37.9 percent from the floor against the Magic. That also is the Clippers' season low point total.

These two teams just met on Tuesday with the Bobcats winning, 102-97, for a total of 199 points.


I see at least that many points being scored in this rematch.


The Knicks shot only 42.7 percent from the floor. Carmelo Anthony was 10-for-28 from the field. Raymond Felton was 6-for-15 from the floor. The Knicks had only two fast-break points.


The pace should be faster this time around without Tyson Chandler, a strong defensive player and shot blocker who has a limited offensive game. He's out with a broken bone in his leg suffered against the Bobcats.


Charlotte shot worse than New York hitting only 42.3 percent from the floor. The Bobcats should find scoring easier without Chandler patrolling the middle.

The winless Wizards are already desperate for a victory. They have been idle since Sunday and won't lack for motivation in this early-season revenge game.



The 76ers have been the surprise talk of the league reeling off three wins to open the season, including shocking the Heat and Bulls. But the 76ers' bubble burst in a big way during their last game, a 20-point home loss to the Warriors two days ago.



The Wizards have a far stronger backcourt with John Wall and Bradley Beal than the 76ers and a better bench. Philadelphia's reserves are being outscored by three points a game despite the team's early success.



It's a plus for the Wizards if Nene is able to play. He's been out with a calf injury.



The Wizards are an emerging team that has been saddled by their traditional slow start. The 76ers have been playing way, way above their heads. I look for a correction here with the Wizards getting their first victory.

The Bobcats shocked the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last night, while Toronto lost a tough game to the two-time defending world champion Heat in a game closer than the final score indicates.


Now the two teams get together tonight in a matchup that favors Toronto. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS following a loss. They catch the Bobcats in a rare letdown spot. The young Bobcats are not mature enough yet to avoid this kind of letdown situation.


The Raptors are the better team and match up well against the Bobcats especially if Charlotte center Al Jefferson is forced to miss a fourth straight game due to a sprained ankle. Another Bobcats big man, Brandon Haywood, is out.


Toronto ranks No. 1 in rebounding margin. Charlotte is 20th. The Raptors should control the boards. DeMar DeRozan is off to a hot scoring start for Toronto. The Bobcats have to watch out for him and Rudy Gay. Charlotte's leading scorer, Kemba Walker, could be less than 100 percent after injuring his shoulder last night versus New York.

When the Kings are favored against a playoff team you know something is up. What's up are the Kings are motivated to reward their loyal fans with a strong effort and to take advantage of a struggling Hawks squad.


The Hawks are in transition with a new coach. They have looked confused and unimpressive in dropping their first two road games. Atlanta is giving up 106 points per game and allowing foes to hit 48 percent of their shots from the floor.


The Kings' morale is much better now that they know they are staying in Sacramento. They want to atone for a nine-point loss to the Clippers in their last home game. The Kings match up well to the Hawks. Atlanta is vulnerable to smaller lineups like the Kings with Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll in its starting lineup.


Atlanta has failed to cover in its last six road contests.

Portland is playing well and is in a favorable situational spot. The Trail Blazers are off impressive victories against the Nuggets and Spurs. The Trail Blazers last played on Saturday at home so they are well-rested and have had ample time to game plan for the Rockets. Portland doesn't play again until Friday so an all-out effort should be forthcoming.


The Rockets, on the other hand, suffered their first loss last night giving up 137 points on the road to the Clippers. This marks their fourth game in five days. The Rockets could limit Dwight Howard's minutes because of this since Howard has had back problems in the past. He's the league's top rebounder, but one of the worst free throw shooters in the league.


LaMarcus Aldridge and Damion Lillard are off to fast starts entering the week as the No. 1 scoring duo in the NBA. They've helped Portland average 106.3 points a game and ranked fourth in 3-point percentage and No. 6 in assists. Aldridge is the NBA's fourth leading scorer at 25.7 points a game.


Beating Portland at Rose Garden is always a difficult task. It's made worse for the Rockets because of the fatigue factor and the Trail Blazers playing well.

Denver is much more defensive-minded and not nearly as up-tempo under new head coach Brian Shaw.



Shaw is emphasizing pounding the ball into the post rather than play at break neck speed, the style point guard Ty Lawson prefers. It's going to take the Nuggets a while to make this adjustment. This is just their second game. In their first game, they scored only 88 points against Sacramento, which has been one of the worst defensive teams.



The Nuggets are missing injured Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. Those two were their second and third leading scorers last season.



Shaw is a defensive-minded coach and the Nuggets held the Kings to 90 points and 40.7 percent shooting from the floor.

The Nuggets aren't fully healthy and are learning a new offense, but they're still a several levels better than Portland.



The Trail Blazers have lost their last 14 regular season games. They are 2-12 ATS.



The Trail Blazers showed their late season collapse wasn't a fluke by losing 104-91 to the Suns in their opener two days ago. The Suns could be one of the three worst teams in the NBA.



The Nuggets have owned the Trail Blazers in Denver winning 18 of the last 19 times there, including the past nine. The Trail Blazers are 2-7 ATS during their last nine road games versus the Nuggets.

The Nets have loaded up with veterans in order to make a run at Miami. But the time isn't right for Brooklyn to beat the Heat.



Miami is off an embarrassing and stunning 114-110 road loss at Philadelphia this past Wednesday. There may not be a bigger upset all season. The Heat will be out for redemption and have Dwayne Wade, who didn't play against Philadelphia, in this matchup. When motivated, the Heat can bury any team.



The Nets are breaking in a number of new players. They have yet to establish any rhythm and chemistry because star point guard Deron Williams has been extremely limited with an ankle sprain. Williams played less than 30 minutes during preseason and only could log 22 minutes in the Nets' opener, a loss to Cleveland. Williams won't play big minutes either in this game. The Nets also won't have head coach Jason Kidd for a second straight game. Kidd is serving the second of a two-game suspension.



The Heat have owned the Nets. They haven't lost to the Nets since 2009. Miami swept the Nets last season winning the three games by an average of 21 points.

Both teams are devoid of star offensive players. They are two rebuilding clubs with point guard problems and a bunch of lunch pail type of bangers in the front court.



Rajon Rondo remains out indefinitely for Boston leaving the Celtics without a true point guard.



The Bucks have a cluster injury problem at point guard with Brandon Knight and Luke Ridnour unlikely to play.

The Kings traditionally have played terrible defense. That's going to change with Michael Malone, their new coach. Malone comes from the Gregg Popovich tree where defense, discipline and unselfish basketball prevails.



The Kings have bought into Malone. They know if they don't play good defense and show better ball movement they will get run off the court by Denver. This is the Kings' first home game under new management and ownership. They do not want to do anything to get embarrassed.



Sacramento has the best big man on the court in DeMarcus Cousins. He can shut off Denver's fast break by controlling the boards and patrolling the paint.



Denver also has a new coach - Brian Shaw. His style is to run a more structured offense. That means Ty Lawson isn't going to be playing at breakneck speed anymore.



Shaw also is a defensive-minded coach. Shaw learned the triangle offense when he was an assistant to Phil Jackson with the Lakers. Shaw then was an assistant at Indiana where the Pacers were No. 2 on defense last season.

Orlando is going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA - and that's the way the Magic want it.



Orlando's goal, with no playoff shot, is to develop its young talent and get high draft picks in what appears to be a rich 2014 draft.



The Magic dropped six of their eight preseason games and were embarrassed, 95-73, at home by Indiana when they last met during the regular season, which was March 19.



The Pacers held the Magic to just 32 percent shooting from the floor. The Pacers finished No. 2 in scoring defense last season holding foes to 90.7 points per game. They ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and defending against the 3-pointer. Orlando was second-to-last in 3-point shooting percentage last season.



Not all that much has changed. The Pacers have everybody back, although Danny Granger won't play. The Magic's four top players are all 21 and younger - Tobias Harris, Nik Vucevic, Victor Oladipo and Moe Harkless. Harris led the Magic in scoring at 17.3 points per game last season, but he won't play versus the Pacers due to a sprained ankle.



Vucevic has to deal with Roy Hibbert, one of the elite defensive centers. Oladipo is playing in his first pro game and making the adjustment to point guard.



This is a rough team for the young Magic to open against especially on the road.

No home team has lost a Game 7 in 35 years during the NBA Championship Series. I'm not going to buck that history with an over-the-hill Spurs group that blew their chance to capture the championship just two days ago in choking fashion.


"I'm devastated," Manu Ginobili said moments after the Spurs lost a five-point lead with 25 seconds left in Game 6.


It would be difficult for the Spurs to bounce back from that devastating loss if they were at home. Being on the road makes it even more difficult.


Miami's superstars - LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh - are all in their prime. James is without question the best player in the world. Wade and Bosh are playing much better than they were earlier in the series.


The Spurs' big stars - Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili - can't match Miami's trio. Duncan is 37. He turned back the hands of time to produce 30 points and 17 points in Game 6 while playing more than 44 minutes. I can't see him producing a performance close to being that good on such a short turnaround.


Parker missed 17 of 23 shots from the floor this past Tuesday. Since playing well in the opener of this series, his play has been spotty. Ginobili had eight turnovers in Game 6. He's not even a star anymore.


Perhaps a role player could emerge as a big hero. But that's more likely to come from the home team. No, this final matchup is going to come down to the aces. The Heat have the better ones, are home and in a better frame of mind. I want them going for me in this all-or-nothing game.

The last three games in this championship series have zoomed over the total. I've gone over in each of these three games, too. The market is convinced the high scoring is going to continue as they've bet the over/under up.



I'm not convinced, though. I'm going under in this Game 6.



I don't see the Spurs having their phenomenal outside shooting success in Miami. The Heat are an underrated defensive team and they're going to be concentrating harder on the defensive end. That means a lot of 1-on-1 defending, which tires them out and takes away some of their offensive focus. The under has cashed in Miami's last four home contests.



A big factor in these last couple games going over was Miami coach Erik Spoelstra's decision to go small. The key moves being inserting high-scoring but defensive-challenged Mike Miler into the starting lineup for Udonis Haslem and also benching high-energy big man Chris Andersen, an excellent rebounder.



That worked well in Game 4, but the Spurs adjusted in Game 5 by going small, too. They outscored Miami, 50-40, in the paint. The Heat can't let that continue. So Spoelstra is likely to return to his original starting lineup where Haslem and Andersen play bigger minutes. That's huge for the under.



Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will then counter and give additional minutes to center Tiago Splitter, an excellent defender. The Spurs are at their defensive best when Tim Duncan and Splitter are on the court at the same time.



It's a perceived given that the Heat are going to bounce back and win this game. But the Heat have tons of pressure. The Spurs know how to win pressure road playoff games and close out series.



I see the Heat relying heavily on LeBron James to take their shots while they work the clock down. James is having a subpar series by his lofty standards shooting 43.6 percent from the floor.



The Spurs will apply the necessary defensive pressure. They are 16-4-1 during their past 21 road games. That's an 80 percent under rate.

The Heat have another gear. The Spurs don't. The Heat's Big Three are in their prime. Two of the Spurs' Big Three are past their prime and Tony Parker isn't 100 percent with hamstring and calf injuries.



Miami has held Parker to an average of 11.3 points per game during the last 3 games. Ginobili is shooting 34.5 percent from the field during the series. Duncan is shooting 41.5 percent from the floor in the series.



Contrast this with the Heat where LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh put together their best game of the series in Thursday's Game 4 109-93 victory. James was near unstoppable making 15 of 25 shots from the field, Wade was his old superstar self with 32 points and Bosh got his confidence going chipping in with 20 points.



The Heat turned up the intensity and the difference was startling. The Heat stepped up in the fourth quarter in Game 4 finishing on an incredible stretch of scoring 51 points in 32 possession, which averages out to 159.4 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs can't match that kind of production.



I see the Heat building on this. They have it together again. San Antonio doesn't and doesn't have the capability. The pressure is squarely on San Antonio to win this Game 5 home game. It's a new thing for some of the key San Antonio contributors such as Gary Neal and Danny Green. Not so for the Heat. They've been through this and their Big Three thrive on it.



The Heat have covered 21 of their last 28 road games. They are 15-6 ATS on the road when playing an opponent with a winning home mark.

The combined points have gone up in each of the four games played during this championship series culminating with 202 points being reached in Game 4.


The oddsmaker isn't reacting enough to this. Once again, he's set too low of a total. Look for this high-scoring trend to continue in today's Game 5.


Miami coach Erik Spoelstra has made a key adjustment. He's gone small surrounding versatile superstar LeBron James with four wing players. One of these wing players is Mike Miller, an ultimate over player who scores big points but plays little defense.


This spread out offense has helped free things up for Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, who returned to their normal star status in Game 4 with their best games.


The Spurs are at their defensive best when Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter, a top-notch defensive player, are on the court at the same time. Splitter, though, is playing far less because of the Heat's switch to small ball.


Duncan and Manu Ginobili are shooting horribly during the series. They are due to shoot much better, especially Duncan who is going to get one-on-one chances and will be operating against a smaller defender with rugged Miami big man Udonis Haslem odd man out in Spoelstra's small ball attack.


Miami and San Antonio are two of the best offensive teams in the league. Both teams are more wide open than perceived.


The over has cashed the past five times the Spurs have been home, while the Heat have gone over in four of their last five away games.

San Antonio 113, Miami 77. That was Tuesday's Game 3 final score, the worst loss in the history of the Big Three era in Miami.



So what happens now in Game 4? Miami wins that's what. The Heat haven't lost consecutive games since Jan. 8 and Jan. 10. Miami is 11-0 SU and ATS following its last 11 defeats. The Heat don't just win these games either - they slaughter the opposition. They are 5-0 SU and ATS during the playoffs following a loss winning these matchups by an average of 21.6 points.



LeBron James, in particular, is going to be highly motivated after the Spurs stung his pride by holding him to 2-of-13 shooting from the floor in Game 3. The Spurs are a good defensive team, but they've had much better defensive clubs during the Gregg Popovich era. This was more a case of James not hitting shots that he usually makes.



Despite being down 2-1 in the series, the Heat have outplayed the Spurs in seven of the 12 quarters. The Spurs are 4-10 ATS the past 14 times when reaching triple digits in their previous game.



The Heat have more than proven themselves on the road covering 20 of their last 27 away matchups. They are 14-6 ATS on the road versus foes with a winning home mark.



Tim Duncan is struggling shooting 37 percent (16-for-43) from the floor in the series. Manu Ginobili no longer is an elite player and Tony Parker is dealing with a hamstring injury. While it's a stretch to hope Parker doesn't play, he figures to be less than 100 percent. Parker is the one player the Spurs must have playing at a high level.

Through three games in this NBA Championship Series, we have yet to have both teams shooting their normal high percentages from the floor, or getting a lot of free throw chances.



That's going to change. The Spurs have figured out the Heat's trapping defense. They broke through for 113 points in Game 3. Tim Duncan is shooting just 37 percent from the field. His shooting is due to rise.



LeBron James is due for a big game, too, after missing 13 of 15 shots from the floor in Game 3. His off-shooting was more a result of missing shots he normally makes than great defense from San Antonio.



The Heat aren't playing the Bulls or Pacers. The Spurs aren't in that defensive class. The Heat have the ability to rev up to another gear like they did in Game 2 when they scored 103 points. That game missed going over the total by one point because Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili shot a combined 10-for-33 from the floor.



The total barely crept over in Game 3 despite James being held to 17 points and Miami getting only 10 free throw attempts. The oddsmaker hasn't budged from where the total has been for the last two games.



If everything goes according to Hoyle, the over should cash again because the oddsmaker have set too low of an over/under.

There have been two games in this championship series. Both have gone under. Now's the time to go over.



The Spurs and Heat were rusty in Game 1. In Game 2, the Heat matched their regular-season field goal percentage and scored 103 points. The Spurs, though, were held to 84 points. So the over missed covering by one point.



Both teams want to run. The Spurs are used to a wide open style being in the Western Conference. They've had great defensive teams in the past. This year's team is more about offense. San Antonio ranked fourth in scoring averaging 103 points per game and were No. 2 in field goal percentage in back of Miami during the regular season.



The Heat felt shackled and forced into half-court basketball during their last two series, going against two of the top three defensive teams in Chicago and Indiana. Those were intense, half-court grudge type matchups. This one isn't.



The Heat's bench scoring has picked up and Chris Bosh showed signs this past Sunday of coming out of his funk.



There were only 28 combined free throws shot in Game 2. The Spurs' Big Three - Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker - were a horrendous 10-for-33 shooting from the floor. They don't figure to have an off night like that again, especially with the series moving to San Antonio.



Despite all this, the over just missed covering in Game 2. A normal performance by these teams should ensure the total going over this time around.

The scoreboard after Game 1 read Under. But the reality is Over for Game 2 of the championship series.


The total is down a tick from Game 1. That's good line value. The handicap matches, too.


San Antonio beat Miami, 92-88. That's a combined 180 points. The Spurs were rusty. The Heat flat and still savoring a Game 7 Eastern Conference finals victory against the rugged Pacers.


The Spurs and Heat combined to shoot 69-for-162 from the field for 42.5 percent. They shot just a combined 35 free throws.


San Antonio averaged 103 points and shot 48.1 percent from the floor during the regular season. Miami averaged 102.9 points and led the NBA in field goal percentage at 49.6.


Given the rust and adjustment factor, it's not surprising the teams went well under their season scoring and shooting averages. This is playoff basketball, after all, where defense rules and teams get more conservative.


But I saw enough evidence that indicated these teams want to run and play a fun, wide-open style. David Stern and the league sure wouldn't mind that.


The Heat have played two of the top three defensive teams during the past two series in the Pacers and Bulls. Those were intense, half-court grudge type matchups, which detracted from the artistic style of LeBron James and Dwayne Wade.


This physical, half-court style isn't the way they play in the West where the Spurs reside. The Spurs were able to hold the Heat down because Chris Bosh couldn't hit open outside shots.


The perception, now fortified with a misleading Game 1 totals result, is this is going to be tight-checking, defensive series. Neither team would prefer that, however. They rely on their superstars playing their normal free-flowing games.


Look for much improved shooting and better offensive adjustments in Game 2 resulting in the total going Over.

The first four games of this Eastern Conference Finals series went over the total by a combined 44 points. The last two went under by a combined 29 1/2 points.


So what happens here with Game 7? The under trend continues is the way I see it. The Pacers win with defense and playing half-court. They are certainly not going to go away from that style in this pivotal Game 7. The Heat are an underrated defensive team. They can play defense as well as any team when they want to - and they certainly want to here.


The combination of a cautious, half-court game with neither team opting to take chances should result in a third straight low-scoring game.


We know the Pacers aren't a big scoring team. They were 23rd in scoring during the regular season and 26th in field goal percentage. The Heat are far more explosive. However, their key bench scorers are cold, Dwayne Wade is far from 100 percent and Chris Bosh is in a funk.


Ray Allen and Shane Battier are a combined 15-for-62 (24%) from the floor in the series. They have missed a combined 30 of 39 shots from beyond the arc. They can't be counted on and neither can Wade nor Bosh. Wade is averaging 12 points during the last three games while shooting 32 percent from the floor during this span. Bosh is averaging a puny 6.3 points in his last three games on 24 percent shooting from the field.

I don't see the Heat closing out the Pacers in Indiana. The Pacers have been right there with the Heat and could just as easily be ahead 3-2 in the series instead of down 3-2.


The Heat, with one exception, have yet to put together one great game. Dwayne Wade isn't 100 percent because of a bad knee, Chris Bosh isn't having a good series and key reserves Shane Battier and Ray Allen are a combined 13 for 54 shooting from the floor for 24 percent.


The Pacers, for the most part, have played with more energy than Miami. The Heat have been doing too much standing around waiting for LeBron James to bail them out. That's not going to work against a motivated, upper tier defensive club at home such as the Pacers with their playoff lives on the line.


While James has drawn the publicity and attention, Pacers center Roy Hibbard has quietly been a dominant force for Indiana. The Heat haven't had an answer for him.


This Game 6 matchup comes down to either the Heat pushing tempo and maintaining its attack mode, or the Pacers physically holding off Miami with an effective half-court style. I see the half-court, slow down game winning out, especially with the game in Indiana where the Pacers have covered seven of the past eight times.


Note, too, that Miami has failed to cover the past four times following a victory.

Indiana played very well during the first two games of this Eastern Conference Championship Series. But the Heat are the superior team. They have figured out the right formula to beat the Pacers' vaunted defense, regained their confidence following a Game 3 18-point road blowout win and have the personnel to beat the Pacers again.



Just how good is Miami? Try this: The Heat are 23-1 in their last 24 road games and have broken an NBA record with five straight double-digit road playoff victories. There is a reason for this - the Heat are extremely focused on the road knowing they must step up. The Pacers have to counter not only with their A game to stay close, but with maybe their finest performance of the season.


The Heat can play at a higher level. They proved it Sunday in Game 3. The Pacers did as well as they could in Miami. They are not capable of raising their game anymore - and the result was their worst home loss of the season.


I have no doubt the effort will be there for the Pacers. However, Indiana lacks the personnel and depth to counter what the Heat have done by having LeBron James operate more from the post. The Pacers are going to have to double-team James after he sparked Miami into scoring 70 first-half points while committing just five turnovers.



This goes against what the Pacers have done successfully all season and that's play man-to-man. You can talk 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert all you want, but the bottom line is the Heat outscored the Pacers, 52-36, in the paint. James is the most dominating player since Michael Jordan. I want him on my side.



The Heat have an unconventional style. They can burn teams with their perimeter game especially when James is double-teamed. Miami also isn't a traditional pick-and-roll team that the Pacers defend well against since Miami doesn't really have the big men to do the screening. Instead the Heat operate their pick-and-roll with wing players who can handle the ball such as James and Ray Allen. The Heat are that rare team with the versatility to do this and the superstar who, like Jordan, can beat any type of defense.


Miami needed to step up. The Heat lived up to the challenge. I don't see them stepping back down.

Conventional wisdom is the Grizzlies easily win this game down 2-0 and at home. Certainly that's where the early money on this game has gone.



But I see things differently. And it's not just from a value standpoint either.



The Spurs didn't just beat Memphis during the first two games of this Western Conference finals. They dominated them except for the fourth quarter of Game 2 when the veteran Spurs were fatigued.



San Antonio and Tony Parker, though, caught a huge scheduling break. The teams have had three days off. The rest greatly helps Parker and no coach is better with extra preparation time than San Antonio's Gregg Popovich.



The Grizzlies rely on outstanding defense and Zach Randolph scoring. Popovich has countered both of them. The Spurs are averaging 99 points a game and have held Randolph to 7-for-26 shooting from the floor for 27 percent by taking him out of his comfort zone.



Mike Conley played well in Memphis' series victories against the Clippers and Thunder, but he's been dominated by Parker. Some have jumped on Memphis' bandwagon because of the Grizzlies taking out the Clippers and Thunder.



Those victories, however, appear overrated now. The Clippers had a weak coach, Vinny Del Negro, while the Thunder was without Russell Westbrook. They couldn't overcome his loss.



The Spurs' bench has outplayed the Grizzlies' reserves and Popovich is doing another masterful job of coaching not allowing the Grizzlies to get into their comfort zone and play their style.



It's a leap of faith to just assume the Grizzlies can completely change things around - and cover what's become a mid-range spread - against a veteran, championship-test squad with the best coach.



The Spurs smell blood just like they did against the Lakers. They also haven't forgotten how the Grizzlies upset them as a No. 8 seed during the first round of the 2011 playoffs ending what could have been a championship season for them.

The Pacers are putting up a brave front, but losing the way they did in Game 1 on LeBron James' layup at the buzzer - with 7-foot-2 defensive whiz Roy Hibbert sitting on the bench in a brutal coaching mistake - has to sting.


Indiana played a strong game. Miami didn't. Yet the Heat still won - without playing close to their A game. The Heat shot 64 percent from the foul line, committed 21 turnovers, missed 13 of 18 shots from 3-point range and key reserves Ray Allen, Shane Battier and Norris Cole combined to miss 14 of 16 shots from the floor.


Expect huge improvement from Miami in Game 2 from all those areas now that the rust is off and the urgency factor has struck home.


The Heat was similarly flat in Game 1 during their last series against Chicago after a long layoff. The Heat ended up losing that one - their only playoff loss in 10 games. In Game 2 of that series, the aroused Heat blew the Bulls out by 37 points!


Miami is well aware that the Pacers won Game 2 in Miami last year when the teams met in a second-round series. I see the Heat stepping it up just like they did in Game 2 versus the Bulls.


Heat are 46-3 in their last 49 games. They are 9-1 in the playoffs, covering in six of their nine victories. The Pacers had a losing road record during the regular season. They have a losing spread record in the playoffs. I can't see them staying with the Heat for a second straight time in a span of three days on the road.

Yes, Miami has the makings of a great team. But who have the Heat beaten so far? The answer is the Bucks, the worst team in the playoffs, and the crippled, depleted Bulls.


Now the Heat are laying a big number - more than the key number of seven in what is lined to be a low-scoring game - against the team that was No. 2 in defense, first in defensive field goal percentage and led the league in rebounding.


Indiana beat Miami two of three during the regular season. Miami hasn't played in a week. The last time the Heat went so long without game action they lost at home to the Bulls in Game 1 of their last series.


The Pacers have the size, rebounding and defensive stopper in Paul George to pose problems for Miami, especially when the Heat figure to be rusty. The Pacers can't match the Heat's depth, but this is Game 1. There is no wear and tear yet.


On paper, it looks like a mismatch. LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are all bigger names than any Indiana player. But Wade has been limited by a right knee injury. His playoff scoring is down nearly 12 points from his career average and Bosh is in uncharted waters this deep into the playoffs having been hurt at this time last year.


Bosh is going to have to match up to the taller Roy Hibbert, who provides a rare center presence the Heat lack. Miami finished last in rebounding.


The Pacers won two of the first three playoff games against Miami last season. The Pacers outscored Miami in last year's series when Hibbert played. George could be the best defender James faces in the playoffs.


Hibbert, George and Lance Stephenson have all elevated their games. David West and George Hill are underrated players.


No, these blue collar types can't match Miami in star power, but they have enough going to keep things close.

It's hard to go against Memphis these days. The Grizzlies are on one of the greatest playoff spread runs covering in their last 10 games! They are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games.



Memphis also has covered in its last five road games, while San Antonio is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home contests. The Spurs also are just 4-12 ATS the last 16 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.



These trends and angles clearly favor Memphis. But there's more than that in liking the Grizzlies to cover in this Game 1 matchup.



No team plays better defense than the Grizzlies. Memphis was No. 1 during the regular season and kept up its outstanding defense during the playoffs. The Grizzlies held the Clippers to two of their lowest-scoring games in their playoff history. The Grizzlies then kept the Thunder from never scoring more than 97 points in any games. The Thunder averaged 105.7 points during the regular season.



Facing this defense, with so many different components, is going to be tough for San Antonio especially after just facing a completely opposite style. Golden State was up-tempo. The Grizzlies are half-court. They like to pound away rather than fire up 3-pointers. It's going to take the Spurs a while to adjust.



San Antonio started off slow in its series against Golden State splitting the first two at home. The Spurs were lucky not to open that series down 0-2.



Tony Parker is a great player. But the Grizzlies have several excellent defenders, including Tony Allen. Their point guard, Mike Conley, is underrated and playing at a high level. He's averaging 17.6 points in the playoffs. Thanks in large part to Conley, the Grizzlies are averaging the fewest turnovers during the postseason.



Tim Duncan is past his prime, while the Grizzlies' main inside players, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, are in their respective prime.



The Grizzlies aren't going to be intimidated by the Spurs either. They are not an upstart like the Warriors, who hadn't made the playoffs since 2007. The Grizzlies eliminated San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs last year in six games going 5-0-1 ATS in the process.

I see the Spurs closing out the series in this Game 6 at Golden State. Except for the last couple minutes in Game 4, the Spurs have been in complete control during these last three games.


The Spurs are healthier, have a stronger bench and more quality players. This is the Warriors' sixth game against San Antonio in 11 days and they are wearing down. Stephen Curry is slowed by a nagging sprained ankle. Remember, too, that David Lee is out giving the Warriors a short bench. That takes a toll this late in the season and series. The quick turnaround from having just played on Tuesday favors the Spurs, too.


Coaching guru Gregg Popovich has made key adjustments and come up with the right defensive schemes after the Spurs were flat in the first two games of the series. He has Danny Green shadowing Klay Thompson and has been rotating Kawhi Leonard and Gary Neal and others on Curry. The result is Curry and Thompson's shooting and scoring has been going down.


Going back during the past 71 instances, the visiting higher-seed playing on the road in Game 6 has covered 59 percent of the time.

Oklahoma City is a strong play here both from a mental standpoint and matchup perspective.


This is the ultimate Must-Win game for the Thunder down 3-1 in the series. It's not only horrible to lose the series, but to do it at home would be humiliating. So a full effort should be forthcoming from Oklahoma City with a tremendous sense of urgency and pride.


Meanwhile the Grizzlies know, or it's at least it's in the back of their minds, that they can afford to lose this game, will still be up 3-2 and can clinch the series at home in Game 6.


The Grizzlies have been playing too casual and overconfident. They were lucky to cover both of their victories in Memphis during the last two games. The Thunder couldn't catch any breaks during those two games. They are due breaks in this game.


Oklahoma City is used to pressure situations and is playoff tested. The Thunder reached the championship series last season. They have shown signs lately of coming together without Russell Westbrook. Proper adjustments have been made. Serge Ibaka, Kevin Martin and Reggie Jackson are back in the mix making key contributions. They were a combined 18-for-33 shooting from the floor in Game 4. Those players are keys with the Grizzlies forced to pay much attention to the great Kevin Durant.


This is a rare situation where the lower-seeded visiting Grizzlies are ahead 3-1 in the series. There have been only 38 cases since 1990 where that situation has occurred. The higher-seeded home team has won 31 of the 38 times for 81 percent. They have covered 62 percent of the time in those instances.

On the surface, things look bleak for New York. The Knicks are down 2-1 to the Pacers, J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin are battling the flu bug and there is internal strife over questionable shot selection.



Oh, yes, the Knicks have yet to win at Indiana in three tries this season.



Despite all this, I see the Knicks stepping up and giving the Pacers all they can handle in this pivotal Game 4. The Knicks are more resilient and have more character than what may be perceived.



New York has covered in 10 of its last 14 road games. The Knicks are 6-1 ATS following a loss. The Knicks' manhood and pride has been stung with recent criticism. Carmelo Anthony and Smith are a combined 40-for-112 (35 percent) from the floor against the Pacers. Indiana plays outstanding defense, but Anthony and Smith can score against any opponent. They are due to shoot much better.



The Pacers have yet to prove they can handle success well. They were up 2-1 against Miami last year in the playoffs and were home for Game 4. They lost that game and the next two to get eliminated. In this series, Indiana was up 1-0 against the Knicks and were buried in Game 2.



The playoffs are about making constant adjustments. In handicapping terms, it's about zigging and zagging. This is the Knicks' turn to show up well.

Memphis surprisingly played terrible in Game 3, its first home game in this series against Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies shot only 40 percent from the floor and were even uncharacteristically outrebounded with the Thunder grabbing seven more rebounds and outscoring Memphis, 44-30, in the paint.



Yet the Grizzlies still won by six points, covering the spread. This is not a good omen for the Thunder, who are dazed and confused.



The Grizzlies had the best defense in the NBA during the regular season holding foes to 89 points a game. Their defense is telling the story in this series, taking full advantage of the Thunder missing Russell Westbrook. The Grizzlies are throwing defenses at the Thunder they haven't seen all season and can't adjust to without Westbrook.



Durant is getting his points, but the rest of the Thunder are coming up short shooting a combined 62-for-172 (36 percent) from the floor. Durant took 26 shots in Game 1. In Game 2, he had 21 attempts and then 19 in Game 3. Part of his decrease in shots is passing off to teammates, who aren't converting. The Grizzlies limited Durant to only two points in the fourth quarter of Game 3.



Westbrook commanded double teams as much as Durant. The Grizzlies have the defenders to take advantage of Westbrook's absence unlike the Rockets. The Thunder averaged nearly 106 points during the regular season. They matched that in dispatching defensively-challenged Houston in their first-round series.



But the Grizzlies have tenacious defenders. The Thunder aren't getting the wide-open looks beyond the arc they used to get. The Grizzlies have held the Thunder to 89 points a game, nearly 17 points fewer per game than what they averaged during the season. I don't see the Thunder being able to properly adjust either. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day rest.



Oklahoma City's task is made more difficult playing this Game 4 at FedEx Forum. Memphis has won 18 of its last 19 home games there. The Grizzlies are averaging better than 100 points at home during the playoffs. They have covered the past eight times when facing a foe with a winning record.



Look for the Grizzlies to win this one by far more than six points.

Golden State outplayed San Antonio in splitting the first two games of this series in San Antonio. But the Warriors lost their confidence and momentum when they dropped Game 3 at home this past Friday night.


The Spurs are an extremely well-coached, savvy, experienced team that has won championships before with their players and has a legitimate shot to do it again this season. The Warriors are in uncharted waters. They last made the playoffs in 2007.


The NBA isn't like baseball or football. Dues have to be paid. Teams don't just jump two tiers into the championship series.


The Warriors would have a hard enough time beating the Spurs if Stephen Curry were 100 percent, but he's far from that. Curry could barely walk during Friday's game because of an ankle injury. He's not going to be anywhere close to 100 percent today. He's not helped either by the short turnaround since this game starts at 12:30 p.m. local time.


The Spurs outshot the Warriors, 50.6 percent to 39.3 percent from the field, in Game 3 by limiting Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 12-for-37 shooting from the floor. The Spurs smell the kill just like they did in sweeping the Lakers, who were without Kobe Bryant.


The money line price is cheap enough to go that route with San Antonio.

Indiana is better than New York and is at home. The Pacers are far more intimidating when playing at home. Indiana can cover this number without having to play its A game.



The Pacers defeated the Hawks in the opening round three times at home and all were by double-digits. They also were 2-0 at home against the Knicks at home during the regular season winning by five and 34 points.



The Knicks need Carmelo Anthony to produce and I don't see that happening against Paul George and the smothering Pacers' defense. He's been cold throughout much of the playoffs and I don't see that changing here. The Pacers were No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game.



J.R. Smith is too immature and distracted to step up and help Anthony out. The Knicks haven't been getting much from their bench either. Amare Stoudemire is expected to return, but that's not necessarily a positive for New York. Stoudemire is going to be rusty, probably create chemistry issues and clash with ball hog Anthony.



The Knicks had to win Game 2 after dropping the series opener at home. They did, but the Pacers - in a flat spot - were right there with New York for three quarters.



The teams haven't played since Tuesday. The long layoff helps the Pacers more because they win by defense while the Knicks' offense can get out of sync. Indiana is 10-4 ATS when playing with three or more days rest.

The Thunder was able to sustain the loss of Russell Westbrook and get past the defensively-challenged Houston Rockets. Westbrook's loss, though, really hurts the Thunder on the road against the Grizzlies, the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA.



As great a scorer as Kevin Durant is, the Thunder was built more around the multi-talented Westbrook. Durant is having a good series, but the rest of the Thunder are shooting a combined 39-for-96 for 40 percent from the field. Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins is willing to give Durant his points and stop everybody else. That strategy is sound.



Memphis has held Oklahoma City to 93 points in each of the first two games. That's 12 points under what the Thunder averaged per game during the regular season. If it weren't for Derek Fisher connecting on six of eight 3-point attempts, the Grizzlies would be up 2-0 in the series.



The teams last met four days ago. The Thunder are all about offense. The Grizzlies all about defense. Defense wins out especially with extra preparation time. The Thunder figure to be rusty having this much time off this late in the season, while the Grizzlies can fine tune their already top-ranked defense. The long resting period gives Memphis more defensive energy.



That allows the Grizzlies to clamp down more on Durant with fresh legs. Durant figures to have to deal with Mike Conley, who played great defense on Chris Paul in the last series, and defensive stalwart Tayshawn Prince.

The last time Miami visited United Center it lost 101-97 to the Bulls. That defeat put an end to the Heat's 27-game winning streak.


So don't expect Miami to be overconfident, or be less than 100 percent motivated, after destroying Chicago in Game 2, 115-78.


Was that score a fluke. Yes and no. The Heat aren't going to win by 37 points again, but there is enough evidence that indicates Miami winning by double-digits.


The Bulls can't compete without Derrick Rose, Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich if Miami plays it's A or B game. That was evident in Game 2 when the Heat went on a 62-20 run. The scary thing about that span was LeBron James contributed only three points during it.


Miami dominated the paint against the Bulls shredding their defense by outscoring Chicago inside, 56-18.


Except for that Game 1 loss to the Bulls when they were obviously rusty and overconfident, the Heat have played well. Discount that performance and the Heat are on an 11-2 covering run. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.


Chicago has failed to cover in six of its last eight home games. This isn't a surprise since the Bulls have been disappointing at United Center all season going 15-29 ATS.

Miami received a wake-up call in Game 1 against the Bulls not only failing to cover a double-digit spread but losing straight-up. The Heat are the superior team, at home, are no longer rusty and won't be caught by surprise.



Add it all up and I see the Heat winning easily especially with the Bulls minus Luol Deng and probably Kirk Hinrich again. Chicago put together tremendous, gutty performances in winning road games on Saturday in Game 7 against the Nets and then just two nights ago against Miami. It's asking way too much of any team - let alone one as battered as the Bulls - to come up big on the road a third consecutive time.



The Bulls gambled in Game 1 by packing the middle trying to close the lane against LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. This gave the rest of Miami's players good perimeter looks. The Heat, though, missed 17 of 24 3-point shots. The Heat are a much better 3-point shooting team than that. They led the league in 3-pointers made from the corners and were second in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. Rust shouldn't be a factor either after the long layoff from Miami's first-round sweep of Milwaukee until it played the Bulls.

Going into Game 1 of this series, Memphis had won four straight playoff games all by double-digits. The Grizzlies played a strong game against the Thunder, but Oklahoma City managed to pull out the victory thanks to some late Memphis turnovers.


That loss takes some of the sharpness off the Grizzlies while the Thunder showed they could protect their home-court despite not playing as well as Memphis. This sets up a Game 2 play on the Thunder, who should play much better.


Kevin Durant has scored at least 20 points in 33 consecutive playoff games. He's the second-best player in the NBA next to LeBron James.


The Thunder need more than Durant, though, to overcome the loss of Russell Westbrook. They are getting that from Kevin Martin, who is proving scoring with back-to-back 25-point games on 15-of-27 shooting from the floor, and floor leadership from Reggie Jackson. He did a nice job running the offense for Oklahoma City in Game 1 and is an improving player.


The Thunder's big men didn't shoot well in Game 1, but they showed that Memphis can't dominate the boards as Oklahoma City outrebounded Memphis.

Kudos for the Bulls for pulling out a gutty Game 7 road victory against the Nets.


That, however, occurred just two nights ago. I don't see the Bulls being physically ready to stay close to the well-rested and much superior Heat with such a quick turnaround.


Not helping matters for Chicago is the poor health of Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. Deng missed Game 7 of the Nets game and is out for this matchup while Hinrich has missed the past three games with a calf injury. Chicago has others playing at less than 100 percent, too.


The Bulls have failed to cover eight of the last nine times following a victory.


Look for the Heat to make an early statement by steamrolling Chicago. The Heat are itching to go and aren't going to let up. It was the Bulls, remember, who ended Miami's 27-game winning streak. The Heat haven't forgotten.

Both Indiana and New York clinched their respective first-round series this past Friday. The short turnaround favors the Pacers even though they are the road team because the Knicks have far more age on them.


Indiana plays much stronger defense and is healthier. Amare Stoudemire won't be ready for this game and Carmelo Anthony re-aggravated his sore left shoulder during Friday's victory against the Celtics.


I can't see the Knicks winning by a mid-size margin if Anthony doesn't have a good shooting game. Anthony didn't shoot well versus Boston and the Pacers ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in scoring defense allowing 90.7 points per game. Indiana regained its defensive and rebounding dominance in its last two games. They held the Knicks to 37 percent shooting in their four regular-season meetings.


The Knicks have the flashier players. They also are a more immature team despite having more veterans than the Pacers. They are the more likely team to be flat off their first playoff series win in 13 years.

The Pacers are superior to Atlanta and have better team chemistry to handle the pressure. The Hawks lack of maturity showed again in Game 5 when they lost 106-83.


Indiana re-established its defensive and physical dominance in that game. Pacers coach Frank Vogel also made the right adjustments tweaking his rotation.


The Hawks have talent. But they don't have great chemistry or resilience. I also question their toughness and clutch ability, especially with all the pressure on them at home. I don't see them getting good looks at the basket against the Pacers, who ranked first in defensive field goal percentage.


The Hawks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games at Philips Arena.

I don't think the Celtics have too much left in the tank after winning the last two games. Teams that have come back to force a Game 7 after being behind 3-0 are 3-100. That's a strong history to overcome especially for an aged Boston team lacking a true point guard.


The Knicks are the better team. They've been too cocky, but they'll be ready for this matchup.


New York is 3-1 when J.R. Smith plays. I see the Knicks, who averaged a league-high 10.93 3-pointers per game, having a much better shooting game. They have missed 40 of 52 shots from 3-point range during the last two games with Carmelo Anthony going 0-for-12. That's not going to continue.


The Knicks are 7-2 ATS the past nine times they've played an opponent with a winning home mark. New York also is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games at Boston.

Yes, the Bulls are banged up. But they have home-court, a superior coach in Tom Thibodeau and the stronger defense. That's enough for the Bulls to prevail in this key Game 6 matchup.


The last thing the Bulls want is to travel to Brooklyn for a decisive Game 7 on Saturday.


A lot is being made of Chicago's wounded lineup. However, Joe Johnson is basically playing on one leg as he deals with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. That's a serious injury. The Nets must have strong shooting performances from Deron Williams and Johnson to beat the Bulls, who ranked third in defense during the regular season holding foes to 92.9 points a game. Bothered by his sore foot, though, Johnson has missed 15 of 18 shots from beyond the arc during the last three games.


The Nets need to quicken the pace and get out in the open court to combat the Bulls' tough defense and to exploit Chicago's lack of scoring punch. But the Nets aren't a great transition team ranking 28th in average possessions per game, can't dominate the boards with Joakim Noah taking Brook Lopez out of his normal game and Johnson has trouble running.


The Bulls are playoff tested in big games. The Nets aren't. Brooklyn also hasn't won in Chicago all season losing both regular season games at United Center along with Games 3 and 4 in the series.

With J.R. Smith back from his one-game suspension, I see this Game 5 going over this low total.


Smith averages better than 18 points a game. He gives the Knicks an offensive swagger and takes some of the scoring load pressure off Carmelo Anthony.


The Celtics hate Smith and the Knicks. This is a long-standing rivalry that has gotten ugly during this series with the Celtics believing the Knicks rubbed it in with their Game 3 victory. Smith's flagrant foul on Jason Terry in Game 3, which draw the one-game suspension, still is in the minds of the Celtics.


So expect a lot of fouls to be called. The Celtics aren't going to go gently into the night if they should fall hopelessly behind. They will keep fouling. Boston, though, is due to shoot much better than it has so far in the series. The Celtics averaged 96.5 points during the regular season, ranking sixth in field goal percentage. The Knicks were 19th in defensive field goal percentage so they've been playing above their heads defensively during this series. A defensive regression is in order.


The Knicks are more an offensive club. They averaged 100 points per game during the season. Anthony and Smith are scorers, not defenders. Yes, playoff basketball is more half-court and defensive intensity. But the total is set too low.

I thought these two teams were close to even before their series began and now the series is tied 2-2. The Grizzlies made the necessary adjustments after going 0-2 in Los Angeles.



The Grizzlies dominated in Memphis. They actually could have won Game 2 at Staples Center, but lost when Chris Paul made a shot with one second left.



Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have asserted their dominance inside helping the Grizzlies outrebounded the Clippers, 92-61, during the last two games. The Grizzlies buried the Clippers by 21 points in Game 4.



I don't see it as any kind of given that the Clippers just bounce back returning home and cover this mid-size number. The Clippers are unproven in this kind of pressure, must-win type of scenario. I don't believe Vinny Del Negro is a good enough coach either to make the right counter adjustments.



The Grizzlies have covered nearly 60 percent of the time on the road this season. They were 24-17 straight-up on the road during the regular-season. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS the last eight times they've hosted a foe with a winning away mark.

Down 2-0, Atlanta needed to adjust to Indiana's physical style of play.


The Hawks made those necessary adjustments while regaining their confidence building a 24-point halftime lead and cruising to an easy 21-point victory this past Saturday.


It was the 12th straight time the Hawks have defeated Indiana at home. The Pacers are far less intimidating on the road where they are 8-18 ATS the past 26 times they've played a foe with a winning home record.


The Hawks have covered seven of the last eight times they've hosted Indiana.


Atlanta has the talent and athleticism to beat the Pacers. The Hawks proved that in Game 3. They are a much better team at home while the Pacers are much worse on the road.


The Pacers now have to adjust to the Hawks getting bigger and tougher in the paint with 7-foot center Johan Petro and rugged Ivan Johnson off the bench to go along with stars Josh Smith and Al Horford. I don't see the Pacers solving those matchup concerns on the road. This spread is low enough where you're just basically asking the Hawks to win so a money line play would be in order.

The first three games of this series went under the total. The oddsmaker has reacted accordingly lowering the total on each game.



The Celtics are averaging 75 points a game during the series while shooting less than 40 percent from the floor. Boston isn't that feeble of an offensive team and the Knicks aren't that dominant of a defensive team ranking 19th in defensive field goal percentage.



Boston entered the playoffs going above the total five straight times. The Celtics averaged 96.5 points during the season - 21 points more per game than they've averaged in this series - and ranked sixth in field goal percentage and free throw percentage.



The Knicks averaged 100 points in the regular season and were fourth in 3-point field goal percentage although marksman J.R. Smith is suspended.



I understand the playoffs are an entirely different animal and scoring usually goes way down. But I see a return to the norm here. It wouldn't take much either considering how low this total is.



Look for a lot of fouls and free throws as the Celtics are frustrated and furious at the Knicks for not only for blowing them out but for excessive showboating. This game could get real rough. Smith was suspended for a flagrant elbow to Jason Terry. If the Celtics fall hopelessly behind, it wouldn't shock me if they kept fouling throughout.

The Hawks play far more confident at home. They have the athletic talent to win this pivotal Game 3 down 0-2.



Atlanta has defeated Indiana 11 consecutive times at home. The Pacers have failed to cover in six of their last seven visits to Philips Arena.



The Pacers also are 8-17 ATS on the road versus a foe with a winning home record.



The Hawks have had trouble with Indiana's physical style. The Pacers have imposed their will in Indiana. That's been reflected in the free throw shooting where the Pacers are 51 of 63 from the foul line while the Hawks are just 18 of 34.



I don't see the Pacers being able to intimidate the Hawks in Atlanta.

Denver actually is lucky to be tied with Golden State at 1-1 despite playing the first two games at Pepsi Center. It's hard to imagine the Nuggets playing a third straight poor game.

I expect Kenneth Faried to play better after he returned to the lineup in Game 2 and for the Nuggets to tighten up their defense now that they know the Warriors are going small after losing forward David Lee.


The Nuggets were humiliated at home by Golden State in Game 2. It may have been Denver's worst game of the season. The Nuggets will strongly be looking to atone.

Denver is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times it has met a foe with a winning record. Golden State is 5-11 ATS the last 16 times following a straight-up victory.


While Faried is back in Denver's lineup, the Warriors are banged-up. Lee is out, Stephen Curry has a tender ankle and Andrew Bogut remains fragile as ever.


The key to this matchup is controlling the boards. I see Denver doing that with Faried back in action and the Warriors minus Lee.

There's no secrets between these two long-time Eastern Conference rivals. The Knicks are the better team, but in this Game 3 matchup I want Boston.

I don't think the tax is excessive to get the Celtics either down 0-2 and finally getting to play at home.

The Celtics are a terrible road team. They are much different and better at home. No team had more of a home-court advantage during the regular season than Boston, which had 13 more wins at home than on the road.

The emotional aspect couldn't be higher for the Celtics and the people of Boston having gone through the traumatic bombing at the Boston Marathon and dealing with the aftermath. I see the Celtics drawing on that playing their most emotional and inspired game of the season.

The Celtics have covered 13 of their last 18 (72%) home contests.

There is no bargain in the line. I realize that. But I see the Grizzlies playing their "A" game returning home down 0-2 in the series.



These two teams are very close. Their series last year went the full seven games. The Clippers are flashier with the bigger stars, but the Grizzlies play better defense and are coming off a franchise-best 32 home wins.



This game is the Grizzlies' season. I will lay the tax to have them in this game. The Grizzlies nearly upset the Clippers in LA during Game 2, but lost when Chris Paul scored a basket with 0.1 seconds left.



I see the Grizzlies imposing their will at home on the Clippers. Memphis is 26-11 ATS (70%) in its last 37 games at FedExForum.

Now that the Nuggets had a scare in Game 1, winning just 97-95, I see them blowing away the Warriors in Game 2. I don't believe the Nuggets will be flat a second straight game.



Not only will Denver be better prepared for Andrew Bogut, but the Nuggets won't have to worry about David Lee. His season is over after he torn his right hip flexor. Lee is out and Kenneth Faried, Denver's leading rebounder, is back in after he sat out Saturday's Game 1 with an injured ankle.



The combination of no Lee, the league leader in double-doubles, and Faried back in Denver's lineup is a lethal one for the Warriors. There is no way the Nuggets want to travel to the Bay Area with the series tied 1-1. The Nuggets have covered 15 of their last 21 (71 percent) at Pepsi Center. Note, too, that a home team in the first round of the playoffs that wins the opening game wins the second game, too, at a 76.5 percent clip.

Sure, Oklahoma City is live to win the championship. But the Thunder is getting too much respect with this spread.

Only once have the Rockets been more than nine point underdogs since acquiring James Harden. The Rockets actually average more points per game than the Thunder.

But because the Rockets fared poorly during their last two regular season games, the line has been inflated. Until those last two defeats - one of whom occurred in overtime on the road against the Lakers - the Rockets had won six of eight.


There are no secrets here. The Rockets have the offense to keep up with the Thunder.

Can the Bucks shock the world and upset the Heat? No, but they can hang inside of double-digits.

The Heat have been resting their stars. It may be asking too much for them to just come in, wipe away the rust and completely dominate especially with Dwayne Wade nursing a sore knee.

Milwaukee and Miami met four times during the regular season. The Bucks won one game by 19, lost another by seven in overtime and were defeated in the other two by 11 and 13 points. The Bucks don't match up as bad to Miami as many other teams do. Milwaukee has quickness and ranked second in offensive rebounding, while the Heat finished last in rebounding.

The Bucks have covered in five of their last seven visits to Miami. The Heat are 2-7 ATS the past nine times they've been double-digit favorites.

Brandon Jennings has been popping off about the Bucks' chances against Miami, but Jennings averaged 23.8 points a game against the Heat this season. Monta Ellis, though, shot just 30.2 percent against the Heat and went to the foul line only twice. If Ellis, a streak shooter, can raise his game the Bucks just could throw a major scare into the Heat.

The Bulls are a bad matchup for Brooklyn. Chicago and Tom Thibodeau, one of the best defensive-minded coaches in the NBA, are playoff-tested. Their hard-nosed, blue-collar, defensive style is well-suited for the postseason when everything slows down and the defensive intensity goes up several notches.

The Bulls very likely could steal this first matchup from the Nets, who last made the playoffs in 2007. This is the first time the Nets are hosting a playoff game in Brooklyn. All of the pressure is on the Nets, who have no postseason experience.

Chicago is laying in the weeds. The Bulls have everyone back healthy except for Derrick Rose. It would be a surprising plus if Rose could finally play for the first time this season, but I like Chicago without him. It's just a bonus if he sees action. The important thing is Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Marco Belinelli are all back.

While the Nets were coasting down the stretch thrilled with finally making the playoffs, Thibodeau was keeping his team sharp by using a fairly normal rotation.

Chicago defeated Brooklyn three of four during the season. More telling is the last meeting between the two teams. That occurred on April 4 in Brooklyn and the Bulls pulled out a 92-90 victory in a playoff-type matchup. The Bulls won despite making just 12 of 19 free throws while the Nets hit on 23 of 30 from the foul line.

Dallas gave it a valiant shot, but will miss the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. So do the Mavericks lie down now? No, just the opposite.

The Mavericks are composed of prideful veterans, many of whom will be moving on to new teams. It's important they close out with a strong home performance. It's important to Dallas that it doesn't finish with a losing record. A win and the Mavericks end up 41-41.

The Mavericks have won four of their last six. Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 22 points during his last four games while shooting 53.5 percent from the field in his last 16 games. A strong performance from Nowitzki is vital. The Mavericks are missing the playoffs, in large part, because Nowitzki was out for the first 27 games and then was rusty when he came back. He's now back to playing close to his upper elite level.

The Hornets and Mavericks just met four days ago in New Orleans. It was no contest. Dallas built a 62-40 halftime lead and coasted to a 107-89 victory. The Hornets have lost four in a row. They are locked into having the second-worst record in the West with no incentive. They haven't played since that loss to Dallas.

The Hornets are young and immature. They are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 road games and are anxious for the season to finally end. The Mavericks have covered nine of the last 11 times when playing a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. The Mavericks are the much superior team, especially with Nowitzki back on track, have motivation and are home. Look for them to beat the Hornets by double-digits.

Toronto is playing for the second time in three days and off a nice upset win against Brooklyn this past Sunday. The Raptors, though, have nothing left to play for missing the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. I see them being disinterested in this their final road game of the season.

Atlanta is well rested having last played at home this past Friday. The Hawks are a streaky team. They have won two in a row now after dropping three straight. Josh Smith and Al Horford are playing well, which is bad news for Toronto as the Raptors will be missing injured center Jonas Valanciunas.

The Hawks won't lack for motivation. This game has been moved to national television and the Hawks are looking to nail down the No. 5 seed, which would mean avoiding having to play the physical Pacers in the first round.

Atlanta is 2-0 versus Toronto this season winning by an average of 10 points a game.