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Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-11-17	New Mexico State -2.5 v. CS Bakersfield	Top	70-60	Win	100	12 h 20 m	Show
This is the big rivalry matchup in the Western Athletic Conference. New Mexico State is playing at a high level winning its last four games all by 14 points or more. The Aggies have 27 wins, tying for the most victories in school history. The Aggies have revenge for a buzzer-beater loss to Cal State Bakersfield in the WAC Tournament Finals last season. The Aggies had won the previous four conference tournaments before that defeat. Only one New Mexico State player logged more than 33 minutes in the Aggies' 78-60 waltz over Missouri-Kansas City in Friday night's semifinal in Las Vegas. Bakersfield had it far, far rougher in the other semifinal game Friday night. The Roadrunners nipped Utah Valley, 81-80, in four overtimes! Jaylin Airington, the Roadrunners' leading scorer, played 49 minutes. Dedrick Basile, the team's third-leading scorer, was on the court for 53 minutes. Utah Valley was 6-8 in conference and only seeded fourth because Grand Canyon was ineligible for the postseason. The Aggies play an up-tempo style. The timing couldn't be worse for Bakersfield. I believe the Aggies are the superior team and now they have a huge situational element in their favor.
03-11-17	Wizards v. Blazers -3		125-124	Loss	-109	13 h 54 m	Show
Both Washington and Portland are playing well. But the Wizards are in a vulnerable spot here. The Wizards went to 3-0 on their current road trip after rallying from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Kings in overtime last night. Portland has won four in a row. This is a crucial game for the Trail Blazers, who go on the road for five games following this matchup. The Trail Blazers have one of the few starting backcourts that can match the Wizards' star power and their front line has been upgraded with the addition of Jusuf Nurkic, who's playing the best ball of his career. The Trail Blazers have dominated the Wizards in Portland winning nine of the past 11 times there while going 8-3 ATS. Portland also has revenge for a 120-101 road loss to the Wizards on Jan. 16 when it had to play an usual early start day game due to Martin Luther King Day. That probably contributed to a very flat effort.
03-10-17	Pacers v. Bucks OVER 207.5	Top	85-99	Loss	-110	13 h 58 m	Show
Both teams prefer an up-tempo pace and it's definitely not too much to ask each to reach at least 104 points. The Pacers average 105 points. The Bucks surrender just under 105 points. Milwaukee is averaging 107.2 points during its last four games. On the season, the Bucks average 105.2 points. The Pacers have a below average defense. There were 216 points scored when the teams met in Indiana last month and there were 232 points put up when the Bucks hosted the Pacers early in the season. The Pacers are off one of their best offensive games of the season, a 115-98 victory against the Pistons. Indiana had 27 assists in that game while shooting 50 percent from the floor. Paul George is shooting 61 percent from the field during his last three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up great offensive numbers and he's getting help from a now-healthy-back-in-sync Kris Middleton, who is shooting above 58 percent from the floor in his last five games.
03-10-17	TCU v. Iowa State -4	Top	63-84	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
Tremendous job by TCU in stunning top-seeded Kansas, 85-82, yesterday in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs they have no time to celebrate such a heady accomplishment. Iowa State is by far the superior team and catches TCU in a big letdown spot. The Horned Frogs had never defeated a top-three overall ranked team in 17 previous tries. They had entered the Big 12 tournament riding a seven-game losing streak. TCU was 2-10 the past 12 times versus .500 foes before upsetting the Jayhawks. Now the Horned Frogs' season has been made. The Cyclones are 7-1 in their last eight games, including rolling past TCU, 84-71, at home on Feb. 18. Iowa State has that needed excellent senior point guard in Monte Morris, who is playing with a chip on his shoulder after not being named a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award for nation's top point guard.
03-10-17	Michigan v. Purdue -3		74-70	Loss	-115	9 h 18 m	Show
Sometimes a near death experience can give you an emotional lift and provide a spark to having a great day. That was the case for the Michigan basketball team on Thursday. The Wolverines arrived the morning of their Thursday morning game against Illinois in their Big Ten Conference game and shot 53.6 percent from the floor in dispatching the Illini, 75-55. It was a remarkable performance from the Wolverines considering the harrowing circumstances they had just endured. Michigan's team plane left for Washington D.C., site of the tournament, on Wednesday. However, the charter plane careened off the runway during takeoff. After enduring a sleepless night with travel plans not firmed up, the Wolverines were able to catch an early Thursday morning bumpy flight and then endure a 90-minute bus ride to Verizon Center. Despite not having the benefit of the usual film work and walk-through game preparations, Michigan took the court after the start time was pushed back 20 minutes and played one of its finest games. The Wolverines were loose knowing how fortunate they were. But Michigan also was a five-point favorite in that game. Now, the Wolverines have to play an early morning game again this time against a far superior opponent and without the adrenaline and life rush they experienced yesterday. The Wolverines also have the contentment of knowing they are almost certain to be picked for the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is 8-1 in its last nine games. The Boilermakers' lone loss during this span came to Michigan on the road on Feb. 25. Purdue wants revenge. Prior to that defeat, the Boilermakers were 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times facing Michigan. Purdue has made the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament each of the past two years. The Boilermakers have the best player on the court in Big Ten Player of the Year Caleb Swanigan. Purdue has been a huge money-maker when laying points going 21-7-3 (75 percent) the past 31 times.
03-09-17	San Diego State v. Boise State +1.5		87-68	Loss	-105	9 h 10 m	Show
San Diego State was lucky to escape a monster upset try by UNLV last night and even luckier to cover a big spread thanks to overtime. Don't look for the Aztecs to be as lucky this time around. Boise State is the more rested squad having last played on Saturday and the Broncos are the better team with a cast of veterans, who have proven themselves on the road. Boise State has defeated a number of foes away from home, including Loyola Marymount, Utah State, UNLV at Thomas & Mack where this game is at, Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force. San Diego State's fan base is down from past seasons. The Aztecs have a terrible 8-15 ATS mark, including 2-7 ATS on the road. And that includes their lucky cover against UNLV yesterday. That was the Aztecs' first away victory in more than a month. The Aztecs got away with shooting 33 percent from the floor, but were bailed out by making 21 of 26 free throws for 81 percent. On the season, San Diego State ranks 313th in shooting percentage and makes 70.4 percent of its free throws. Boise State averages eight more points per game than San Diego State and is the better free throw shooting team.
03-09-17	Clippers v. Grizzlies -3	Top	114-98	Loss	-105	13 h 56 m	Show
Neither team is playing well, but this game is far more crucial for the Grizzlies and they catch the Clippers carrying a heavy fatigue rating. This marks the Clippers' fifth game in seven days and second in two night. The Clippers have failed to cover five of the last six times when playing without rest. The Grizzlies are two game behind the Clippers for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. Memphis is off an embarrassing 122-109 home loss on Monday to the Nets, the worst team in the NBA. Memphis has had two full days to live with that loss. So the Grizzlies should be rested, well-prepared and fired-up. Mike Conley has outperformed Chris Paul recently averaging 29 points during his last five games. The Clippers were outrebounded by 14 boards and outscored by 22 points in the paint by the Timberwolves in a 107-91 road loss last night. That's an ominous sign for the Clippers taking on the physical Grizzlies, who rank fourth defensively and ninth in rebounding margin. The Clippers are 19th in rebounding margin and 13th defensively by comparison.
03-09-17	CS-Northridge v. CS-Fullerton -2	Top	68-81	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
These teams have gone in different directions leading up to the conference tournament. Cal State-Fullerton is 8-2 in its last 10 Big West games, covering six of their last seven. Cal State-Northridge has dropped six of its last seven. The Matadors' losses have coincided with losing big man Rakim Lubin to a torn Achilles on Feb. 4. He was the team's second-leading rebounder. The Titans have a size advantage and a very good senior guard in Tre Coggins. Fullerton also holds a talent edge, which was proven when the teams met this past Saturday at Northridge. The Titans beat the Matadors, 86-78. Northridge is 3-13 ATS following a loss.
03-08-17	Celtics +9 v. Warriors		99-86	Win	100	10 h 2 m	Show
Golden State isn't the same powerhouse without Kevin Durant. The Warriors still can win, but they're having trouble covering margins going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. This isn't an ideal spot for Golden State either. The Warriors just returned from a five-game road trip that ended Monday night. This is their first home game since Feb. 25 and then they go right back on the road for two games, including a big Saturday night game at San Antonio. Boston usually steps up in situations like this going 13-6-2 ATS versus opponents with a winning home record. The Celtics are a frustrated lot right now losing on a buzzer-beater to the Suns on Sunday and then letting a 13-point second-half lead slip against the Clippers on Monday. The Celtics played both of those games without Al Horford, who is expected back from an elbow injury for this game. Boston already has underrated guard Avery Bradley back from injury.
03-08-17	Kings +15 v. Spurs		104-114	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
The record shows the Spurs have won eight in a row. But San Antonio has just been getting by and has much bigger games on deck than this one. In their last four games, the Spurs have defeated the Pacers by one point at home, defeated the Timberwolves at home in overtime, edged the Pelicans in overtime on the road and slipped past the Rockets by two at home. The Spurs covered none of these games. The Kings are in stop-the-pain mode losers of five in a row. Sacramento is capable of providing a scare. The Kings no longer have DeMarcus Cousins, their best player. But the trade-off is extra line value. Just two games ago, the Kings lost by only one point in overtime to the Jazz. The Kings have covered in five of their last six visits to San Antonio. The Spurs just got done holding off the Rockets in a marquee matchup two days ago. They are at the Thunder on Thursday. Oklahoma City is extremely tough at home. Following that matchup, the Spurs return home to host Golden State on Saturday in what shapes up as the biggest game of the season. So this is a prime letdown and look ahead spot for San Antonio. It wouldn't be surprising if Gregg Popovich rested some of his starters, or at least drastically reduced their minutes in this game. Note, too, the Spurs are 1-5 ATS the past six times they've hosted a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Note that word just has come out that Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge will be rested and won't play. The line has come down because of that information. I still like the Kings at plus 11 1/2 and higher.
03-08-17	UNLV v. San Diego State -9	Top	52-62	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
I can't see UNLV staying within double-digits of San Diego State in this first round Mountain West Conference Tournament game. The matchup is at Thomas & Mack Center, home of UNLV. But that won't matter. The Rebels lost their fan support weeks ago on their way to losing 12 of their last 15 games. The Rebels are poorly coached, don't play smart and aren't physically tough. Those are all fatal weaknesses going against San Diego State. The Aztecs are well-coached, rank 16th defensively in the country and have reached the tournament finals seven of the past eight years. UNLV is likely to be missing forward Tyrell Green, who is doubtful due to a knee injury. He didn't practice on Tuesday. Green is UNLV's second-leading scorer and No. 3 on the team in rebounding. The Rebels' frontcourt is even more vulnerable to the Aztecs without Green. San Diego State has defeated UNLV 10 consecutive times, including winning both games this season by 13 points each. UNLV is 2-8 ATS the past 10 times when taking between seven and 12 1/2 points.
03-07-17	Blazers v. Thunder -6.5		126-121	Loss	-110	15 h 21 m	Show
It's difficult to take Oklahoma City as a serious contender in the Western Conference because of its 12-20 road mark. But the Thunder are near elite status when playing at home going 23-8 at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Thunder return home in stop-the-pain mode after going 0-3 SU and ATS in their three-game road trip that ended Sunday. The Thunder began that trip with a 114-109 loss to Portland this past Thursday. So add short revenge motivation to the list of incentives for Oklahoma City. Portland is similar to Oklahoma City in being terrible on the road losing 22 of 32. Translating into point spreads, the Trail Blazers are 8-20 ATS during their past 28 away contests. Oklahoma City is 21-8-1 ATS during its past 30 home games. The Thunder have covered 16 of the last 22 times versus opponents with a losing record. It's a plus for the Thunder that they should have back shooting guard Victor Oladipo, who didn't go on their three-game road trip because of back spasms. He practiced Monday. Portland was supposed to play last night, but its game at Minnesota was postponed due to condensation on the floor. So the Trail Blazers flew to Minnesota, sat around and then flew to Oklahoma City. They might be fresher physically by not playing, but not necessarily mentally with the rare postponement of a game after the trip already was made.
03-07-17	Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 223.5		126-121	Loss	-110	15 h 47 m	Show
Thunder coach Billy Donovan is really stressing defense in this game, the Thunder's first game back from an 0-3 road trip. Oklahoma City lost all three games by playing poor defense. Look for the Thunder to step up defensively now that they're back at home where they've held their past three opponents to an average of 103 points. Oklahoma City upgraded its backcourt defense by recently signing veteran Norris Cole. He could see more minutes than usual because of Portland's high-scoring backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Oklahoma City hosted Portland on Feb. 5 and won, 105-99. The teams last played against each other this past Thursday in Portland. The Trail Blazers won, 114-109. That total opened a tick lower at 221. Portland shot nearly 50 percent from the floor in that game and the teams combined to shoot 68 free throws making 81.3 percent from the line. Now the total opened higher and it's doubtful the teams will shoot that many free throws again. There were 49 free throws attempted during the Feb. 5 game. That 81.3 percent free throw percentage is high, too. Portland shoots 77.9 percent from the free throw line on the season while the Thunder are a bottom-six free throw shooting club at 74.8 percent.
03-06-17	BYU v. St. Mary's -6.5	Top	50-81	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
BYU's lack of depth and inexperience should prove fatal against Saint Mary's especially in such a short turnaround. The Cougars just defeated Loyola Marymount, 89-81, in the quarterfinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament on Saturday. Saint Mary's has shot better than 50 percent during 18 of its 30 games. The Gaels beat the Cougars, 81-68, at home and 70-57 at Provo this season. Both of those games were convincing double-digit wins for the Gaels, who led the Cougars by 25 points in the latter matchup played on Feb. 18. Saint Mary's has been golden in this spread range covering seven of the last eight times when favored between seven and 12 1/2-points.
03-06-17	Pacers v. Hornets -3.5		88-100	Win	100	14 h 43 m	Show
Charlotte has been playing better since coming out of the All-Star break. The Hornets have played their first six games on the road following the All-Star Game. They went 3-3, but could have gone 5-1 losing two of the games in overtime. Now the Hornets are home for the first time in three weeks, out of a playoff spot by three games. The Hornets trail the sixth-place Pacers by five games making this matchup crucial for them. Charlotte isn't going to lack for motivation and the Hornets catch the Pacers without rest and in a letdown spot. Indiana came from six down with 1:43 left to nip Atlanta, 97-96, on Sunday. The Pacers pulled the road victory out on a 3-pointer by Glenn Robinson III with 0.6 seconds left. This marks the Pacers' fifth consecutive road game, too. Paul George is the best player on the court, but the Hornets have the next two best players in Kemba Walker and Nicholas Batum. The Hornets also have a defensive stopper to slow down George in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Monday Free Play Rockets plus 4 at Spurs Kevin Durant's injury has opened up the gate for San Antonio - and Houston. The Rockets are in the argument now for best team in the NBA. Houston has won eight of its last 10 games. James Harden has a league-best 49 double-doubles. The Rockets have more firepower on their bench adding Lou Williams to go with Eric Gordon. Those are the two leading scorers in the league among reserves. Unsung big man Clint Capela is healthy again and playing well. Houston is 2-0 this month crushing a pair of Western Conference contenders - the Clippers with Chris Paul on the road, 122-103, and Grizzlies at home, 123-108, two days ago. San Antonio has won seven in a row. However, the Spurs' current form doesn't match the Rockets. The Spurs' last three games were a one-point home win against the Pacers, an overtime road victory against the Pelicans and an overtime triumph versus the Timberwolves. San Antonio failed to cover any of those games. Yes, you can say the Rockets are stepping up going from playing good teams to an elite one. But the Spurs are stepping up even more in class. The Rockets are at least two levels higher than the Pacers, Pelicans and Timberwolves. The Rockets have covered 21 of their last 31 road games. They are the fresher team coming off two blowout victories. Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 115.3 points, nine points more game than what the Spurs average. San Antonio is 2-1 versus Houston this season. The Spurs' victories have been by an average of four points with the last occurring on Dec. 20. Houston has improved since then.
03-06-17	Bucks v. 76ers OVER 213		112-98	Loss	-107	4 h 17 m	Show
The over has cashed the past four times these teams have met. Look for that trend to continue. The Bucks rank No. 2 in the NBA in field goal percentage. The 76ers' defense has taken a hit with Joel Embiid out for the season and Nerlens Noel traded. Philadelphia has allowed an average of 117.3 points during its last six games while allowing foes to shoot 49 percent from the field. Milwaukee isn't a great defensive team, but the Bucks do like to play up-tempo. That combination has resulted in the Bucks going over the total 58 percent of the time this season.
03-05-17	Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 138		93-57	Win	100	6 h 24 m	Show
The last time these two teams played the total went over by 43 1/2 points in regulation. Neither team has stepped up their defensive play. The Wolverines are allowing 50 percent shooting from the floor when playing on the road. They rank third from the bottom in the Big Ten Conference in defensive efficiency. The over has cashed nine of the last 12 times when Michigan has been road chalk. Nebraska has surrendered 88 points in two of its last three games.
03-05-17	Jazz v. Kings +9.5		110-109	Win	100	10 h 50 m	Show
This isn't the best of spots for the Jazz. They beat the Nets at home by 15 points this past Friday and host the Pelicans on Monday. It's easy for them to look past the rebuilding Kings. Sacramento should prove dangerous here, though. The Kings have been idle for three days. That not only has given them some much needed rest time, but also a chance to get more in sync following the trade of DeMarcus Cousins. Sacramento has covered the past seven times following having three days rest. The Kings were embarrassed at home in their last game, a 109-100 loss to the Nets this past Wednesday. Shooting guard Aarron Affalo returned in that game after missing the previous three games with a hamstring injury. Utah could be short-handed in the backcourt if Rodney Hood has to miss a third consecutive game. The Jazz have failed to cover in 17 of their last 21 Western Conference games and are overpriced here.
03-04-17	Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 205	Top	90-97	Win	100	16 h 40 m	Show
Defensive guru Tom Thibodeau is finally getting his Timberwolves to play tough defense. Minnesota has held four of its last five foes under 100 points and three of them under 90 points. The only exception was a shootout against the high-scoring Rockets. I don't see a shootout here at all. The Spurs are off a grueling overtime road win against the Pelicans last night. Gregg Popovich isn't going to want his team running against the young legs of the Timberwolves. So look for a slow-paced, deliberate type attack from San Antonio. The Spurs are playing tough defense themselves holding seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 points.
03-04-17	Dayton v. George Washington +4.5		81-87	Win	100	8 h 36 m	Show
George Washington is playing well winning four in a row. So this line could hold up even if Dayton wasn't caught in a monster letdown spot. The Flyers just captured the Atlantic-10 Conference title with a big revenge victory against VCU. The Flyers are going to the NCAA Tournament regardless of how they far in this matchup. The Colonials are tough at home. They've dropped just two conference home games with one coming in controversial fashion versus VCU. They've covered their last five at home versus opponents who had a winning road mark.
03-04-17	UNLV v. Fresno State -12		59-72	Win	100	6 h 24 m	Show
UNLV is at one of its lowest points ever. The Rebels are in a letdown spot, too, following an upset home win against Utah State that halted a nine-game losing streak. UNLV went 1-7-1 ATS during the losing skid. The Rebels are 3-17-2 ATS during their last 22 road contests. Fresno State is 12-2 at home and has covered 14 of its last 18 home games. The Bulldogs closed hot last season capturing the Mountain West Conference Tournament and they're peaking again this season winning and covering each of their last four games.
03-04-17	LSU +9.5 v. Mississippi State		76-88	Loss	-102	5 h 25 m	Show
I see a clear buy sign on LSU taking this boatload of points against a Mississippi State that has fallen down and can't get up. The Bulldogs have dropped seven games in a row. They are 1-4 the past five times as home chalk. They haven't been this high of a favorite since Jan. 25. LSU got its confidence back upsetting Tennessee, 92-82, as a six-point home 'dog during its last game this past Wednesday. The Tigers have increased their scoring in each of their last four games. This has been an underdog series with the team taking the points going 8-2-1 ATS.
03-04-17	Illinois -3.5 v. Rutgers		59-62	Loss	-110	9 h 2 m	Show
This is the time to look for hot teams with strong motivation. Illinois is one such team. The Illini have won four in a row and five of their last six putting themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Illinois is doing it with defense holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the floor during its last seven games. This is an excellent matchup for the Illini to stay hot. Rutgers ranks 321st in scoring at 65.8 points per game. The Scarlet Knights rate among the bottom teams, too, in field goal percentage at 41.2. The Scarlet Knights just want the season to be finished. They have dropped six in a row while ranking last in the Big Ten with a 2-15 mark. Illinois has achieved good recent success in these types of matchups covering six of the last seven times versus sub .500 foes. Rutgers has failed to cover six of the last seven times, too, as a home 'dog of between one and 6 1/2 points. Note, too, Illinois has covered in each of the past four meetings with Rutgers.
03-03-17	Thunder -4 v. Suns		111-118	Loss	-110	3 h 23 m	Show
Look for order to be restored following last night when the Suns upset the Hornets and the Thunder lost to the Trail Blazers. Oklahoma City isn't nearly as good on the road, but the Thunder are still several tiers above the Suns when playing away. Phoenix is tied with the Lakers for the worst record in the Western Conference. The Suns are going with youth at the expense of veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight. The Thunder got stronger at the trade deadline picking up Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott to go with the return from injury of Enes Kanther, who is averaging 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds in his last three games. I see the fired-up and more experienced Thunder dominating the boards while Russell Westbrook has another big game against the second-worst defensive team in the NBA. Oklahoma City has dominated this series winning 19 of the last 22, including the past six.
03-03-17	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit -1.5	Top	85-60	Loss	-110	11 h 13 m	Show
UW-Milwaukee coach LaVall Jordan knew he was going to have it rough in his first season as head coach of the Panthers. He was hired under difficult circumstances and the Panthers had a dreadful season going 8-23 while finishing last in the Horizon League at 4-14. But now can the Panthers turn things around in the conference tournament opening today against Detroit Mercy? No. The Panthers are a dead team losers of nine in a row. They just hosted Detroit Mercy two games ago on Feb. 24 losing 81-74. The Titans aren't exactly as a powerhouse, but they clearly are better than UWM. So I'm surprised at this low of a spread especially with the game being playing at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. The Titans finished two games better than the Panthers in conference and have the two best players on the court in Corey Allen and Jaleel Hogan.
03-02-17	Manhattan v. Rider -6		68-69	Loss	-110	10 h 5 m	Show
I'm going to ride Rider here. Rider has won and covered its past three games winning each game by double digits. This includes a 93-82 victory over the Jaspers on Feb. 22 in this spread range at home. The Broncs are peaking at the right time. Although this matchup is on a neutral court, Manhattan doesn't have the defense to stop Rider. The Jaspers give up nearly 78 points a game allowing foes to shoot better than 45 from the floor. Rider is averaging 98.3 points in its last three games. Manhattan has failed to cover the last four times when getting points. The Jaspers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Metro Atlantic games, too, and were blown out by Iona in their last game losing 72-51 as an 11-point road 'dog this past Friday. Rider beat Iona on the road, 103-85, just three games ago.
03-02-17	Hornets -3 v. Suns	Top	103-120	Loss	-110	16 h 46 m	Show
Charlotte made the playoffs last season and can't afford to lose to the Suns in its bid to make the postseason again this season. Right now they're 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East. Yes, the Hornets appear down from a year ago. But they've been involved in some games with deceiving scores, have underrated Cody Zeller back in the lineup now and the Suns are the second-worst team in the NBA behind only the Nets. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are Charlotte's best players. But Zeller's return makes a difference because he provides defense at center. Charlotte is 23-17 when Zeller has played. He returned to the lineup in the Hornets' last game, a 109-104 win against the Lakers on Tuesday. Charlotte is 3-17 when Zeller hasn't played. Big man Frank Kaminsky also has been playing well for Charlotte averaging 19.9 points and 7.8 rebounds in his last 10 games. The Hornets were five-point road favorites against the Lakers. This line is shorter and the Suns have a better record than the Lakers. Phoenix has made no secret that it is playing for the future giving minutes to youngsters such as Alan Williams, Tyler Ulis and Derrick Jones Jr. at the expense of veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight. The Suns last played at home on Feb. 15. So their focus and concentration may not be all there especially with so many inexperienced players in the rotation now. The Suns rank 29th in defense. They've allowed triple digits in 22 of their last 23 games. Charlotte ranks 10th defensively yielding an average of eight fewer points per game than Phoenix.
03-01-17	Washington University +24 v. UCLA		66-98	Loss	-105	11 h 29 m	Show
UCLA can mail this one in and still win easily. But I don't see the Bruins doing it by this large of a spread. The Bruins just avenged a home loss by beating then fourth-ranked Arizona, 77-72, this past Saturday. Despite the huge victory, the Bruins' chances of winning the Pac-12 regular season title are remote trailing both Oregon and Arizona by 1 1/2 games despite beating them both since Feb. 9. Washington has dropped 10 in a row, but the Huskies definitely want to perform better than when the Bruins beat them at home, 107-66, on Feb. 4. Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar called out his team for lack of effort in that game saying they had no fight in them. So I'm looking for a spirited effort by the Huskies coupled with a lackluster one by the Bruins. UCLA has been a money-burner as chalk going 4-12 ATS in that role the past 16 times while Washington is 12-5 ATS as an underdog of 13 points or more.
03-01-17	Pacers v. Spurs OVER 207.5		99-100	Loss	-105	5 h 42 m	Show
The two teams just met on Feb. 13 and 216 points were scored with San Antonio winning, 110-106. The Spurs played that game without rest and in action for the fourth time in six days. Now they're home and haven't played since Sunday. The Spurs are averaging 105.2 points in their last four games. The Pacers have a bottom 10 defense. The Pacers have an above average offense. They've gone over the total 10 of the last 14 times when playing on the road against a foe with a winning home mark. The over has cashed in 12 of San Antonio's last 17 home contests.
03-01-17	Nuggets v. Bucks -2.5		110-98	Loss	-110	13 h 42 m	Show
Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot in their respective conferences. The setting is ripe for Milwaukee to get this home victory, while covering this small spread. The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy after upsetting the Bulls on the road in grand fashion last night, 125-107. Following this road matchup, the Nuggets get to play seven of their next eight games at Pepsi Center their home court. Denver has failed to cover the past six times following a victory. The Nuggets also are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times when playing in the second of back-to-back games. The Nuggets will be minus injured power forward Kenneth Faried. That's a key missing player because the Bucks' strength is frontcourt scoring and the greatness of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who should be pumped coming off a rare bad game. The Bucks also will have shooting guard Khris Middleton back in the lineup after he missed their last game with a hamstring injury. The Bucks are in revenge mode for a road loss to the Nuggets last month. They have defeated the Nuggets by an average of 13 points the past two times they've hosted them.
03-01-17	Pistons v. Pelicans -133	Top	86-109	Win	100	12 h 13 m	Show
The Pelicans have yet to win in three games since acquiring DeMarcus Cousins, who is suspended for this game. I see the Pelicans stepping up without Cousins to post this home victory behind Anthony Davis and point guard Jrue Holiday, who was playing much better before Cousins came on board. Not only do I see the Pelicans stepping up at home while finding a better offensive rhythm, but also factoring that the Pistons are caught in a flat spot. Detroit is 2-7 in its last nine road games and has covered only once in its last five visits to New Orleans. The Pistons also are 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. Detroit is off a home overtime victory against Portland last night. The Pistons had lost eight in a row to New Orleans before beating the Pelicans,118-98, at the start of February. That gives the Pelicans revenge motivation, too, along with trying to earn a playoff spot. Free Wednesday Play Raptors minus 4 hosting Wizards Great win for the Wizards last night at home against the Warriors. Unfortunately for Washington it doesn't get any time to savor beating the best team in basketball. That's because the Wizards take to the road to meet the hot again Raptors. Toronto has won four in a row and is highly motivated to hold home-court in this important home-and-away matchup, which resumes again on Friday with the two teams playing at Verizon Center, home of the Wizards. The Raptors are strong at home as evidenced by their 21-10 record at Air Canada Centre. Washington is 10-15 on the road. The Wizards are 3-7 when playing without rest. This also is their third game in four days. Guards John Wall and Bradley Beal each logged more than 39 minutes last night. Otto Porter, the Wizards' third-best player behind the two guards, played nearly 38 minutes. The Wizards needed those big minutes from their key players in their physical, hard-fought, leave-it-all-on-the-court 112-108 win against the Warriors. When the Wizards nearly upset the Cavaliers at home before losing in overtime on Feb. 6, they nearly were upset by the Nets in their following game. The Nets have the worst record in the NBA by far, but the Wizards just nipped them 114-110 in overtime as 10-point road favorites. The Wizards clearly were coming down from their huge effort against Cleveland, the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors have adjusted to life without Kyle Lowry. DeMar DeRozan has been on fire averaging 37.7 points and shooting 53.6 percent in the three games following All-Star break. Toronto is better defensively and stronger in the frontcourt since acquiring Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker at the trade deadline and having power forward Patrick Patterson return from injury. Toronto has dominated the Wizards winning the past eight meetings. Certainly the Wizards are much improved. They are deserving of respect and major props. However, this is a terrible spot for them and Toronto also is much improved. This isn't the same Raptors team that was so bad before the break.
02-28-17	Fresno State +5 v. Boise State	Top	74-67	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
Fresno State came on strong at the end of last season and the Bulldogs are doing it again this season winning and covering their last three games. The Bulldogs have been tremendous in an underdog role covering 11 of the last 14 times. By contrast, Boise State has failed to cover in its last six games and also is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games. The line is inflated a bit because it is Senior Night in Boise, but the Broncos don't have any difference makers who are seniors.
02-28-17	Jazz v. Thunder		106-109	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
Yes, that was an impressive road victory the Jazz had on Sunday beating the Wizards, 102-92. The Jazz turned in their "A" game. They also played an Eastern Conference opponent not familiar with them. It's hard to envision the Jazz playing a second straight "A" road game this one against one of the better teams in the Western Conference. Utah has failed to cover in 14 of its last 16 games versus Western Conference opponents. Oklahoma City is mediocre on the road, but very strong at Chesapeake Arena. The Thunder are 22-8 at home this season going 20-8-1 ATS during their past 29 home contests. The Jazz haven't won at Oklahoma City since 2010 losing 10 in a row there. Russell Westbrook is going for his 30th triple-double of the season and the Thunder beefed up their frontcourt depth landing Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott in a trade with the Bulls and getting Enes Kanter healthy again. So they match up well to the physical Jazz. It's an added plus if shooting guard Victor Oladipo is able to play after practicing on Monday. He's missed the last two games. It's not too much to ask the Thunder to simply just win this game.
02-28-17	Blazers +5 v. Pistons		113-120	Loss	-110	15 h 30 m	Show
I don't consider the Pistons better than the Trail Blazers. Portland ranks ninth in scoring at 107.3 points a game. That's six points more per game than the Pistons, who rank 26th in scoring and 27th in free throw shooting. Portland ranks 13th in free throw percentage. The Trail Blazers also compete in the stronger Western Conference. This does mark the Trail Blazers' third consecutive road game following the All-Star break, but is just their second game in five days. It's also the final game of their road trip. Portland should be fueled not only by chasing a playoff spot, but revenge for a 125-124 double overtime home loss to the Pistons last month. The Trail Blazers were laying 3 1/2 points in that matchup. Damian Lillard has been on a monster tear since the break averaging 30.5 points while shooting 51 percent from the floor during this span. He's playing far better than Detroit's two best players, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson.
02-27-17	Wolves v. Kings UNDER 212	Top	102-88	Win	100	12 h 48 m	Show
Defensive guru Tom Thibodeau continues to preach defense to his young Timberwolves. Minnesota drops way down in class today after losing 142-130 on the road to the Rockets this past Saturday night. The Rockets are the second-highest team in the league. However, in their two previous games before the Rockets matchup, the Timberwolves held the Nuggets - the fourth-highest scoring team in the league at 110 points - to 99 points and the Mavericks to 84 points. Dallas was averaging 102.8 points in its prior five games before falling to the Timberwolves. Minnesota should have an easier defensive task with the Kings no longer having DeMarcus Cousins and with Rudy Gay injured. Those were the Kings' only two consistent respectable scoring threats. The Kings are in major adjustment mode after dismantling their team at the trade deadline with Cousins going to New Orleans. The Kings could only manage just 85 points at home in their last game this past Saturday against Charlotte. The Kings have gone under in 10 of their last 11 Western Conference games. They aren't going to get into any kind of track meet with the Timberwolves. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns have been hot for Minnesota, but the team is without its third-best scorer, injured Zach LaVine. So more of the scoring load has fallen on Wiggins and Towns.
02-27-17	Oklahoma +14.5 v. Kansas		63-73	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
Oklahoma is playing its finest ball covering in its last four games, including thumping Kansas State by 30 points this past Saturday. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS, too, as double-digit 'dogs. Kansas, on the other hand, is just 3-8 ATS when favored by 12 or more points. The Jayhawks have only covered one of their last six home games. The line is inflated because it's senior night for Kansas. But that's not necessarily a good thing for the Jayhawks in this high of a spread range because some seniors such as Tyler Self, son of coach Bill Self, are going to see court time when they've hardly played all season.
02-26-17	Georgia Tech +12 v. Notre Dame	Top	60-64	Win	100	18 h 60 m	Show
Before diving into a breakdown of this matchup and why Georgia Tech getting this many points is the right side, let's examine the history. Georgia Tech and Notre Dame have met seven times since the Irish joined the Atlantic Coast Conference. The games have been decided by 4.1 points. The Yellow Jackets have covered seven of the last eight times versus Notre Dame, including winning the first meeting this season, 62-60, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs on Jan. 28. Now, nearly, a month later that spread is almost double as the Irish host the Yellow Jackets. I say the line is much too high. Notre Dame has gotten back on track winning four in a row. The Irish win with offense averaging 84.3 points during their victory streak. However, the Irish haven't played in more than a week last in action on Feb. 18. That's too long to go without playing this late in the season. A certain freshness would be welcomed for tired teams down the stretch, but eight days between games means there's a good chance of rust, which would especially hurt an offensive-minded squad such as the Irish. There's a certain zig-zag this late in college basketball for NCAA Tournament bubble teams such as Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are bidding to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2010. Their chances suffered a big blow when they lost at home to North Carolina State, 71-69, this past Tuesday. Josh Okogie had another big game with 25 points, but the Yellow Jackets hurt themselves by blowing 12 layups and going 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) from the foul line. That tough defeat means the Yellow Jackets must - at the very least - win two of their final three games to have a shot at getting an NCAA berth. Those games are against the 21st-ranked Irish, hosting Pittsburgh on Tuesday and then playing at Syracuse. Georgia Tech has had four full days to brew about that missed opportunity against NC State. So look for the Yellow Jackets to throw their best punch at the Irish. They certainly are capable of beating good teams having defeated North Carolina, Florida State, VCU and Notre Dame. The Yellow Jackets are well-coached, have shown fight and their starting lineup has talent especially Okogie, who has scored in double figures in 14 of his 15 conference games. Lack of depth is a problem, which could crop up against Pittsburgh on Tuesday in the short turnaround. Syracuse will be looking for revenge when the Orange play Georgia Tech at home. So this is a game the Yellow Jackets really need. Georgia Tech has covered nine of its last 12 ACC games and is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times versus above .500 opponents. Notre Dame only has beaten one team by more than 12 points since Christmas.
02-26-17	Celtics -120 v. Pistons	Top	104-98	Win	100	12 h 56 m	Show
Counting a controversial loss to the Bulls on the final day before All-Star break, the Celtics have lost two in a row. Boston blew a 17-point lead in a road loss to the Raptors this past Friday. I see this as a stop-the-pain game for Boston. The Celtics are at least one level higher than Detroit. The Pistons don't have a defensive stopper to corral Isaiah Thomas. Detroit's two best players, Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond, are enduring a terrible month. Jackson's scoring is down 10 points per game in February. Detroit opened post All-Star break with a 114-108 overtime win against the Hornets. The Pistons, however, are 5-12 ATS following a win. It's an added bonus if Avery Bradley is ready to play for the Celtics here.
02-25-17	Nets +22.5 v. Warriors		95-112	Win	100	19 h 46 m	Show
Yes, this game definitely has a Harlem Globetrotters-Washington Generals mismatch quality to it. The Warriors likely can name their score. But there is no reason for them to do that. Beating any NBA team by more than 20 points is difficult even when it's the best versus the worst, which is the case here. Only once in their last 17 games have the Nets lost by more than 20 points. Golden State beat the Nets by 16 points in the first meeting between the two teams this season on Dec. 22. The Nets actually led by 16 points during that game. Brooklyn now has Jeremy Lin back. He played last night for the first time after missing the previous 26 games with a hamstring injury. Lin is Brooklyn's best guard. He'll by highly motivated since he comes from the Bay Area. The Nets should play hard hoping not to embarrass their teammate, who still has a chance to become the face of the franchise. The Warriors are fully healthy. In this case, that's a good thing for the Nets because Steve Kerr can frequently substitute. Kerr has the Warriors in excellent shape to finish with the best record. His trick is keeping his stars fresh. This is a perfect spot for Kerr to limit the minutes of his superstars - playing an easy opponent and with a five-game road trip looming for the Warriors beginning on Monday. Golden State doesn't have a good track record either in these types of mismatches going 4-10-1 ATS versus sub .500 opponents.
02-25-17	Bulls v. Cavs -11		117-99	Loss	-110	14 h 47 m	Show
I'll lay double-digits with the Cavaliers in rare double-revenge mode and catching the Bulls off a 128-121 overtime home win against the Suns last night in which Jimmy Butler logged more than 43 minutes of court time. The Bulls are 2-0 versus the Cavaliers this season, including handing them one of their five losses at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers came out of break in impressive fashion rolling past the Knicks, 119-104, on Thursday with LeBron James getting a triple-double. Streak shooter Kyle Korver is hot right now for Cleveland hitting 12 of 18 3-pointers in his last two games. The Bulls got worse at the trade deadline dealing Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott. The Cavaliers are more than capable of blowing out just about any team at home when properly motivated. They should have high incentive for this game.
02-25-17	Northwestern v. Indiana -3.5		62-63	Loss	-115	12 h 58 m	Show
Indiana has the stronger backcourt, is in revenge mode and in stop-the-pain mode. Another factor is I just don't trust Northwestern in a key game especially on the road. The Wildcats upset Wisconsin, but still have dropped four of their last six games. They've covered only one of those last six games.
02-25-17	Hawks -2.5 v. Magic	Top	86-105	Loss	-110	15 h 28 m	Show
Both Atlanta and Orlando opened post All-Star break with losses. The difference is the Hawks are far superior to Orlando and have their key cog back in the lineup. The Hawks were blasted by the Heat, 108-90, at home Friday night. The Heat were red-hot hitting 17 of 37 3-pointers while Atlanta made just 38 percent of its shots from the field. The Hawks were minus their floor general, point guard Dennis Schroder. Schroder, who is averaging 17.5 points and 6.3 assists, will play today. He was suspended just for the Magic game for failing to report back to the team on time after the All-Star break. The Magic played on Thursday losing at home to the Trail Blazers, 112-103. The Magic are 5-18 in their last 23 games, a demoralized bottom-feeder playing out the string while missing the playoffs for the fifth straight season. Orlando is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven home games. Long-term, the Magic are 6-19-1 ATS during their past 26 home contests. The Hawks helped themselves at break picking up Ersan Ilyasova, a heady veteran who can rebound and hit 3-pointers. The Hawks are 12-3 ATS when playing without rest. They should play much better today with Schroder back and with a chip on his shoulder and Ilyasova having played 16 minutes in his Hawks debut last night. The Magic have gotten even worse since All-Star break after trading Serge Ibaka. The Magic have had trouble containing former teammate Dwight Howard, who is shooting 76 percent against Orlando this season. The Hawks have beaten the Magic in their last two meetings winning by an average of 23 points.
02-25-17	Mercer +8.5 v. Chattanooga		64-54	Win	100	9 h 10 m	Show
Mercer has covered eight of its last 12 games but is off a loss. However, the Bears have a great track - 9-1 ATS - following a defeat. The Bears have revenge, too, for a narrow home loss to UT Chattanooga, whose motivation has been greatly lessened following a loss to ETSU that ended the Moccasins' title hopes in the Southern League.
02-25-17	Seton Hall -6.5 v. DePaul	Top	82-79	Loss	-110	7 h 45 m	Show
Seton Hall doesn't want to hurt its chances of making the NCAA Tournament by losing this game. The Pirates have won four of their last six games to get into Big Dance conversation. They destroyed the Blue Demons by 31 points when they played last month easily covering as 14-point favorites. DePaul is fat and happy after ending its 10-game losing streak in style with a 67-65 road win against Georgetown. The Blue Demons were 13 1/2-point 'dogs. DePaul is 3-12-1 ATS following a victory. I don't see DePaul pulling a second straight upset. The Blue Demons have lost their last three home games losing by 13 to Villanova, by 35 to Creighton and by 13 to Marquette. The Blue Demons have matchup issues against Seton Hall's big three of Angel Delgado, Khadeen Carrington and Desi Rodriguez. All three players have scored 1,000 points this season. In the RIP rankings, Seton Hall ranked 48th as of Thursday with DePaul at 224. In the Pomeroy ratings, the Pirates were at 57 with DePaul at 183.
02-24-17	Nets v. Nuggets -10	Top	109-129	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
This handicap works both ways. The Nets are the worst team in the NBA losers of 25 of their last 26, including their last 14. The Nuggets would be in the playoffs if the postseason began now. But Denver is in a precarious spot with the Kings, Trail Blazers and Pelicans all close behind. Denver suffered an embarrassing 116-100 road loss to the Kings last night. But playing last night is a huge plus for the Nuggets because they got their post All-Star break rust off. Three of their key players also returned to the lineup - Danilo Gallinari (groin), Kenneth Faried (ankle) and Wilson Chandler (illness) - after being out. Gallinari and Chandler played decently. The Nets now are the ones that are going to be rusty. A horrendous road team anyways with a 2-23 away mark, the Nets got even worse during All-Star break trading away their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic in order to play for the future. The youthful, immature and sure-to-be rusty Nets could have trouble focusing after being idle since Feb. 15. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have revenge motivation for a five-point road loss to the Nets. The Nuggets have a good coach, Michael Malone. He'll be stressing that the Nuggets can't afford to lose this home game to such a bad team. So Denver's urgency should be extremely high. Certainly the Nuggets have the firepower to blow out the Nets ranking fourth in scoring at 110.5 points a game. Brooklyn has the worst defense in the NBA surrendering 114.2 points per game. Denver has covered in eight of its last 10 home games. The Nuggets also are 6-1 ATS the past seven times after losing by more than 10 points.
02-24-17	Yale +5.5 v. Harvard		64-77	Loss	-115	4 h 52 m	Show
Yale is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. They are in short revenge against Harvard, a team the Bulldogs lost to 75-67 at home 13 days ago. The Bulldogs were favored by four in that game. Now we have nearly a 10-point line swing. Yale has a strong track record when playing on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record going 21-9-2 ATS. The Bulldogs also have covered in their last four visits to Harvard.
02-23-17	Nuggets v. Kings +7.5		100-116	Win	100	23 h 17 m	Show
The Kings have received lots of negative feedback for dealing DeMarcus Cousins. It's obvious the Kings are playing for the future despite trailing the Nuggets by just 1 1/2 games for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. However, the Kings should be especially fired-up for this matchup - their first game minus Cousins. The remaining Kings have pride and want to prove themselves. The Kings are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games. They've defeated Denver four consecutive times. The Nuggets have a lot of youth. They're not accustomed to be favored to take care of business on the road laying these many points. Focus could be an issue for the Nuggets here, while the Kings have something to prove. Sacramento figures to be the more motivated team. Denver also has a number of injured players due back who could be rusty, including streak shooter Danilo Gallnari and Kenneth Faried.
02-23-17	Rockets -3 v. Pelicans		129-99	Win	100	22 h 46 m	Show
Houston has defeated New Orleans six of the past seven times, including burying the Pelicans, 122-100, when the teams last met in mid-December at Houston. A lot is different now. This will be DeMarcus Cousins' debut with New Orleans. He'll team up with Anthony Davis to give the Pelicans an imposing front line. However, it's going to take time for Cousins, Davis and the rest of the Pelicans to adjust. It remains to be seen if Alvin Gentry can make this a good fit. I have my doubts since I don't consider Gentry a good coach. There's going to be a lot of fanfare for this game being Cousins' debut with New Orleans. The Pelicans aren't used to these type of distractions and lack the poise and experience to handle them. The Rockets certainly won't be taking the Pelicans lightly now. Houston made an NBA-record 24 3-points in the earlier victory against New Orleans. The Rockets rank No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 114.4 points and they do it by firing 3-pointers all the time. They should have success shooting their 3's against the Pelicans' Twin Towers new look. The Rockets are a bad matchup for the Pelicans. Houston's offense should be even better after acquiring guard Louis Williams from the Lakers. Williams is having an excellent season and will fit right in with the Rockets. The Rockets have covered 19 of their last 27 Western Conference games. The Pelicans are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when playing on three or more days rest.
02-23-17	Blazers -2.5 v. Magic		112-103	Win	100	20 h 42 m	Show
Portland is the superior team and should be rejuvenated coming out of the break. The Trail Blazers trailed the Nuggets by two games for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Orlando is a bottom-feeder from the inferior Eastern Conference. The demoralized Magic have lost 17 of their last 22 games and will be missing the postseason for the fifth consecutive season. The Magic rank 29th in scoring and Frank Vogel has not upgraded their defense. The Trail Blazers hold a monster backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Portland upgraded its frontcourt trading for Jusuf Nurkic while the the Magic got worse by dealing away big man Serge Ibaka.
02-23-17	Massachusetts v. George Washington -5		67-83	Win	100	6 h 36 m	Show
George Washington is an average Atlantic 10 team. But they are the superior team here and can take advantage of the Minutemen's struggling defense that has yielded an average of 81.8 points in the last five games. UMass has lost seven of its last eight games. The Colonials come into the game with a little momentum having defeated Duquesne in their last game, 77-70, on the road. George Washington plays stronger defensive at home surrendering 64.4 points.
02-23-17	Jacksonville State -120 v. Eastern Kentucky		65-68	Loss	-120	6 h 33 m	Show
This is more a fade on Eastern Kentucky than a play on Jacksonville State as the Colonels have lost five in a row. Jacksonville State is in revenge mode for a 57-52 home loss to the Colonels on Jan. 26. The Gamecocks shot just 30 percent from the floor in that game and shot nine fewer free throws than Eastern Kentucky. Jacksonville State has a winning SU road mark while covering 64 percent of its lined road games. Eastern Kentucky is 4-17-1 versus foes with a winning road record.
02-22-17	Fresno State +8.5 v. San Diego State		63-55	Win	100	9 h 14 m	Show
Fresno State got hot in mid-February last season ending up capturing the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The buy sign is on the Bulldogs again as they've won and covered their last two games. The Bulldogs have played San Diego State tight during the past two seasons splitting four games with their losses coming by three and six in overtime. The Aztecs aren't scary anymore at home where they haven't been drawing a full house. Only three times this season have the Aztecs covered at home. They've been bad in this role, too, going 2-7 ATS when laying more than seven points.
02-22-17	Drake +12.5 v. Loyola-Chicago		65-80	Loss	-110	14 h 60 m	Show
Drake is going through growing pains this season. But the Bulldogs did beat Loyola, 102-98, late last month. That was the fifth time they've covered against Loyola in the past six meetings. This has been an underdog series, too, with the 'dog getting the money the past five times. Loyola is 1-5 in its last 6. The Ramblers are off a tough loss to Missouri Valley Conference co-leader Illinois State falling 65-63 this past Sunday. A long shot rimmed out at the buzzer that would have given Loyola the victory. So it' going to be difficult for the Ramblers to get up for this game, let along cover a big number like this in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley.
02-22-17	Manhattan +7 v. Rider		82-93	Loss	-108	5 h 49 m	Show
Rider may not have its full intensity, which is needed to cover this mid-range number, after upsetting Iona on the road this past Sunday as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. Rider had lost four of its previous five games before pulling the upset. Manhattan won the first meeting between the two schools, 76-73. I don't see Rider covering a number this big in the rematch. The Jaspers have covered seven of the past eight times at Rider.
02-22-17	St. Louis +22 v. VCU	Top	50-64	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
VCU is in a huge look ahead spot as its next two games are against the other top two teams in the Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island and Dayton. The Rams matchup versus Dayton likely will decide the Atlantic 10 title. I can easily envision a letdown spot for VCU with the Rams taking their foot off the pedal. VCU is 6-15-1 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The key is can the Billikens hang in? I believe they can. Saint Louis is an above average defensive team. The Billikens should play with a full amount of intensity after a bad loss to Fordham in their last game this past Saturday. Travis Ford has done a nice job coaching Saints Louis and he called out his players for lack of effort and passion following that loss to Fordham. Up until their last two games, Saint Louis had been on a nice point spread run. The Billikens are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 7-1 ATS following a loss and a tough team to cover a large margin against because of their slow pace.
02-21-17	NC State v. Georgia Tech -3	Top	71-69	Loss	-105	7 h 29 m	Show
I'm going to ride the Yellow Jackets here. They haven't lost a home game since Jan. 7 and that was versus Louisville. Among their home wins have been conference victories against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame. They have covered nine of their last 11. The teams met in mid-January and Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road. North Carolina State has dropped and failed to cover seven in a row. Mark Gottfried is a lame duck coach having already been fired. The Wolfpack fell behind Notre Dame by 23 points before losing by nine at home in their last game after getting the news about Gottfried. The Wolfpack lost to the Irish despite shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. Georgia Tech has the 16th best defensive field goal percentage in the country. Now the Wolfpack go on the road. They have lost their last three away games by a combined 79 points!
02-21-17	Cleveland State -143 v. Detroit		83-91	Loss	-143	7 h 7 m	Show
Cleveland State destroyed Detroit by 17 points in the first meeting between the teams. The Vikings are in stop-the-pain mode and should win again. They have drawn early sharp action. Detroit's defense has slipped. The Titans are giving up nearly 85 points in conference play and lack enough offense to make up for that. They are averaging only 66 points in their last two games. The Titans have lost and failed to cover their last three games and four of their last five.
02-20-17	Texas +16 v. West Virginia	Top	62-77	Win	100	13 h 24 m	Show
Texas is 0-12 on the road and at neutral sites this season. But we're not talking about a crazy money line play here. The Longhorns just need to stay fairly close, something they mostly do having not lost by more than 15 points during their past 23 games. Some of the Longhorns' road problems can be attributed to starting four underclassmen. But these young players - Jarrett Allen, Andrew Jones and Kerwin Roach to name three - are talented. Allen is a 6-foot-11 freshman who could get taken in the NBA lottery. While the Longhorns don't win on the road, they do cover spreads. Texas is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times as a road underdog. The Longhorns have lost by 10 or less points away from home against Oklahoma (by four), versus Georgia (by two), against Kansas (by two), versus Baylor (by 10), against Iowa State (by nine) and against Kansas State (by three). West Virginia just nipped Texas, 74-72, when the teams met for the first time this season on Jan. 14. The Longhorns have had tremendous point spread success versus West Virginia covering eight of the last nine times.
02-20-17	Miami (Fla) v. Virginia OVER 118		54-48	Loss	-115	10 h 12 m	Show
Yes, these are two very strong defenses. But this total is just too low, an overcompensation for that. Miami has scored at least 70 points in six of its last eight games. Virginia's defense has slipped recently surrendering an average of 66.2 points during its last five games. There were 141 points scored when these two teams last met 11 months ago.
02-19-17	Syracuse v. Georgia Tech +4		65-71	Win	100	7 h 32 m	Show
This is a huge game for Georgia Tech and the Yellow Jackets are expecting a rare sellout crowd in their efforts to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. The Yellow Jackets have held foes to 36 percent shooting from the floor at home. Georgia Tech has covered eight of its last 10 games and is 4-0 ATS during its past four home games. Syracuse has won just two road games all season - by one point and in overtime. The Orangemen's defense hasn't been nearly as good away from home. They have failed to cover seven of their last nine road matchups.
02-19-17	UNLV +13.5 v. San Diego State		64-77	Win	100	5 h 27 m	Show
San Diego State won't have a sellout for the fourth straight game. The Aztecs' home-court isn't as strong as before. Their coach, Steve Fisher, is good friends with his former assistant and now UNLV coach Marvin Menzies. The Rebels have lost six in a row, but four have been by four points or less. San Diego State is 2-7 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The Aztecs don't have enough offense to cover this number.
02-18-17	Florida Atlantic -3 v. Southern Miss		94-82	Win	100	12 h 57 m	Show
Florida Atlantic has won eight of its last 10 road games and catches Southern Mississippi off an overtime upset victory against Florida International. Prior to that victory, Southern Mississippi had lost six of its last seven games. While the Golden Eagles are a bit fat and happy, the Owls are in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an overtime defeat to Rice. The Golden Eagles are 7-15-1 ATS following a SU win. I see this line as short to back the better team in a good spot.
02-17-17	VCU v. Richmond +5.5		84-73	Loss	-107	4 h 49 m	Show
This is enough points to get me involved with Richmond in this revenge spot for a loss to VCU at the beginning of the month. The line is inflated because the Spiders are off a 23-point rod loss to George Mason. Prior to that defeat, though, Richmond had covered five in a row while going 4-1. The lone defeat during this span was to VCU. The Rams shot nearly 52 percent from the floor in that game. Now VCU is a good shooting team, but not nearly that good and Richmond is solidly defensively. Only 12 teams have a better 3-point shooting defense than the Spiders. Richmond always has been a good play as a home 'dog going 20-9-1 ATS in that role.
02-17-17	Fairfield -118 v. Quinnipiac	Top	89-86	Win	100	7 h 30 m	Show
The Metro Atlantic Athletic conference takes center stage today in a limited college basketball menu. Fairfield has covered the past six times as road chalk and is such a short favorite that a money line play is warranted because of the low juice. Fairfield has revenge for a 73-71 home loss to Quinipiac 11 days ago when it blew an 11-point lead with seven minutes left. The Staggs were four-point favorites in that contest. It was not one of Fairfield's better performances, but it was more on the Staggs than the Bobcats. That also was Fairfield's only loss during its past six games. The Staggs have won tougher road games than this one. Quinnipiac drew less than 600 fans to its last home game, which was a 31-point loss to St. Peter's. The Staggs are 8-2 ATS versus sub .500 teams. Quinnipiac is 2-5 in its last seven games. I don't see the Bobcats coming away with a sweep.
02-17-17	Idaho +5.5 v. Eastern Washington		67-77	Loss	-115	5 h 59 m	Show
Idaho did lose its last game. But prior to that the team had gone 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Expect the Vandal to bounce back in a revenge spot. They were 5 1/2-point home favorites in the first meeting and now the line is the complete opposite. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 7-2-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings.
02-16-17	Celtics v. Bulls OVER 212	Top	103-104	Loss	-105	19 h 38 m	Show
The figure is 29 out of the last 30. That's how many times Boston has reached triple digits during its last 30 games. The Celtics have scored a minimum of 107 points in 13 of their last 14 games and are averaging 114.7 points during their past four games. The over is 9-2-1 in Boston's last 12 road games. So I see the Celtics during their part to get this total to go over. But how about the Bulls? Well, their defense had been atrocious up until their last game, a 105-94 home win versus Toronto two days ago. The Bulls had surrendered 100 or more points in nine consecutive games until beating the Raptors, allowing their previous four opponents before Toronto to shoot at least 50 percent from the field. The key to making this over work is Chicago's offense, which ranks 27th in field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting. The over buy sign is there on the Bulls, though, following that Raptors victory. The Bulls played at a faster than usual pace for them resulting in 20 fast-break points. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg was quite pleased with the up-tempo style particularly how effective it was for bench players Doug McDermott, Cristiano Felicio and Denzel Valentine. So expect the Bulls to play quick again especially trying to take advantage of Boston having to play without rest. This is the last game before the All-Star break, too, so both teams should be holding nothing back. Jimmy Butler is back for Chicago and is slated to play without any minutes restrictions. Dwayne Wade has been ruled out, but Nikola Mirotic is expected to play after missing the last two games.
02-16-17	Wisconsin +2.5 v. Michigan		58-64	Loss	-110	5 h 52 m	Show
The Badgers won't have senior Bronson Koenig when they take on Michigan. But the tradeoff is getting Wisconsin at this number. Koenig, who averages 13.4 points, actually hasn't been that effective since injuring his calf on Jan. 24. The Badgers have the depth and defense - fourth in the nation in scoring defense - to withstand his absence. I consider the Badgers the best team in the Big Ten and they won't lack for motivation following a 66-59 loss to Northwestern this past Sunday that ended their eight-game losing streak. The Badgers have beaten the Wolverines seven of the past eight times, including the last five.
02-15-17	St. John's v. Butler -9		86-110	Win	100	7 h 13 m	Show
I see this as a kill spot for Butler. The Bulldogs are just 1-3 in their last four games desperate for a confidence-building blowout win and in revenge mode, here, too, for a three-point road upset loss to St. John's in late December. Butler is tough at home. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 14 home contests and are 8-1-1 ATS following a loss. They had covered four in a row against St. John's until the past meeting.
02-15-17	76ers +10.5 v. Celtics	Top	108-116	Win	100	12 h 44 m	Show
Twice these teams have met this season and the Celtics have won by one and four points, respectively. The 76ers have won three in a row. They've covered 19 of their last 26. They are deserving of more respect than this especially considering the situation. The Celtics haven't played at home in 10 days. They just returned from a four-game road trip going 3-1 burying Dallas, 111-98, on Monday night. Boston plays again tomorrow night at Chicago while this is the 76ers' final game going into the All-Star break. So a full effort should be forthcoming from the 76ers while the Celtics, distracted by finally coming back home, may have to hold something back for the Bulls. Boston has been favored by eight or more points eight times this season. Not once have they covered a spread in that role. The Celtics have also failed to cover during their last four home games and are 2-5 ATS following a victory. The 76ers aren't likely to have Joel Embiid, their best player. But Dario Saric and Nerlens Noel have stepped up recently. Saric is averaging 20.8 points and 6.5 rebounds during his last four games. Philadelphia is 8-5 ATS during the last 13 games Embiid has missed.
02-15-17	Iowa State +4.5 v. Kansas State		87-79	Win	100	5 h 42 m	Show
Kansas State has dropped five of its last six games with its lone victory during this time frame coming by just two points. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS, too, when laying less than 10 points. Iowa State has dominated this series winning five of the last six times. The Cyclones have proven themselves as 'dogs knocking off Kansas on the road along with away victories against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. When catching three or more points, the Cyclones are 5-0 ATS. Iowa State has been receiving good low-post play from Solomon Young lately.
02-14-17	Kings v. Lakers -127		97-96	Loss	-127	11 h 39 m	Show
The Lakers last were home on Jan. 31. They won't play at home again until 12 days from now. So this game is a big deal to LA. The Lakers have won their last two home games beating the Pacers by 13 points and Nuggets by four. LA actually has covered seven of its last eight. This includes road victories by 14 against the Knicks and by eight against the Bucks during the past eight days. The Kings are down Rudy Gay and may also be without backup point guard Ty Lawson.
02-14-17	Dayton v. St. Louis +14	Top	85-63	Loss	-110	16 h 12 m	Show
OK, let's get this out of the way right away. Dayton has the best defense in the Atlantic 10. Kyle Davis is an outstanding player leading the conference both in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Flyers are an impressive team going 46-12 in their last 58 league games, but I don't see them covering this big of a road number against the improved Billikens. Saint Louis has covered the past six times it has been a 'dog. The team has covered nine of its last 10. The Billikens draw the fourth-highest crowd support in the league. They've won their last four home games and own upset home victories against Duquesne, Massachusetts and George Mason since Jan. 25. Saint Louis nearly defeated Dayton at home last season leading by nine with seven minutes left before falling in overtime. The Billikens were worse last season yet almost beat Dayton losing by three as 13-point 'dogs. The Billikens are improved both defensively and offensively topping 75 points in three of their last four games. The spot is excellent, too, for Saint Louis. The Billikens have their confidence up and catch Dayton off a huge underdog road victory against Rhode Island.
02-13-17	Celtics v. Mavs OVER 208.5		111-98	Win	100	5 h 26 m	Show
I have to ride the Celtics and over here. Boston has scored at least 106 points in 13 of its last 14 games. The Celtics have put up 112 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in nine of Boston's last 11 road games. The key here is Dallas has upped its scoring hitting triple digits in seven of its last eight games. In their last three games, the Mavericks have scored 113, 112 and 112 points.
02-13-17	Pistons v. Bucks -3	Top	89-102	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
OK, the shock of losing Jabari Parker for the season due to a torn ACL has worn off for Milwaukee. This will be the Bucks' third game without their second-best player. Kris Middleton is back now and the Bucks need to have this game trailing the Pistons by two game for the final playoff spot in the East. The buy sign finally is on Milwaukee after the Bucks pasted the Pacers, 116-100, at Indiana this past Saturday. That was a huge confidence and morale boost for the Bucks. The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the league. This also is Middleton's third game back since returning from a torn hamstring that had kept him out the entire season so he should be less rusty. The Pistons just upset the Raptors, 102-101, on Sunday coming from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to pull it off. It's going to be hard for Detroit to retain that intensity for a second consecutive game and fourth game in six days. The Pistons are 3-7 when playing without rest and 5-12 ATS during their past 17 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Bucks have done well versus Detroit covering nine of the last 12 meetings, including going 4-1 ATS in Milwaukee. Monday Free Play Magic Plus the Points at Heat I'm going to test a handicapping theory. It's the play-against the hot team that just had their long winning streak snapped. In this case it's fade the Miami Heat. The Heat appeared to have their lottery reservations well in order when they lost 30 of their first 41 games. But a funny thing happened on the way to crying about the glory days of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. The Heat got hot proving you should never count out the underrated coaching of Erik Spoelstra. Miami rattled off an NBA-high 13-game win streak, longest in league history for a sub-.500 team. The historic streak ended this past Saturday when the 76ers took advantage of a flat Miami road performance to beat the Heat, 117-109. Miami committed 20 turnovers and had just 15 assists in the loss. Now the Heat return to South Florida perhaps missing Dion Waiters for a fourth straight game due to a ankle injury. The team's third-leading scorer is questionable. So there very well could be a lingering deflation for the Heat. Waiters would be missed because he's the only other respectable scoring threat besides Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. The catch in going against the Heat in this spot is backing the Magic, losers of 12 of their last 15. This is a sure-fire lottery team, devoid of hope dragging into All-Star break with shot morale and daily trade rumors suggesting a thorough housecleaning. Frank Vogel hasn't fixed Orlando's defense, which ranks 20th and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Magic just surrendered 112 points in a 32-point road loss to the Mavericks this past Saturday. Dallas happens to be the lowest-scoring team in the NBA averaging 98.2 points. Miami is averaging 112.3 points in its last eight games. That would rank third in the NBA if compounded during the entire season. The Heat still have averaged 107.6 points during their last three games minus Waiters. At least the Magic should be highly motivated, right? They off an embarrassing loss in which their effort was questioned and now play their in-state rival. The Magic have the big men with Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic to keep Whiteside from going crazy. The Magic also are 11-6 ATS when catching seven or more points. So let's give the theory a test.
02-13-17	Arkansas State v. Texas State UNDER 129.5		58-62	Win	100	8 h 28 m	Show
These two teams rank among the top three in the Sun Belt Conference in defensive efficiency. Texas State is adept at controlling tempo when playing at home and the Bobcats are going to play half-court here ranking 344th in tempo. The under has cashed in five of Texas State's past seven home games. That's fine with Arkansas State, which ranks 212th in tempo. The line is set too high in my view because Arkansas State has been shooting well. However, the Red Wolves are taking a step up in defensive competition.
02-13-17	Rider v. Fairfield -3.5		67-69	Loss	-105	3 h 43 m	Show
Rider is a poor road team especially when stepping up failing to cover nine of the last 12 times versus home teams that are above .500. Fairfield has covered the last four in the series, including beating Rider on the road, 76-67, on Dec. 1. Fairfield leads the conference in two-point field goal accuracy and has allowed an average of 61 points during its last four games. This is a step up defensively for Rider.
02-13-17	Baylor -2.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	78-84	Loss	-110	16 h 17 m	Show
If it weren't for beating last place Oklahoma, Texas Tech would be 0-6 in its last six Big 12 Conference games. The Red Raiders did get up in a big way to play Kansas at home this past Saturday losing 80-79 at the wire. I don't see the Red Raiders being able to come back that strong just two days later against sixth-ranked Baylor. The Bears are a school-best 22-3 through 25 games and have one of the top players in the nation, Johnathan Motley. In short turnarounds such as this for both teams, talent usually trumps. Baylor has been a huge money-maker on the road, too, gong 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 away contests. The Bears are 4-2 in conference road games with the losses coming to Kansas and West Virginia, the two teams along with themselves that are vying for the Big 12 title. It's tough to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders are not in the class of Kansas and West Virginia.
02-12-17	Oregon State +26 v. UCLA		60-78	Win	100	6 h 53 m	Show
It's hard to make a case for Oregon State except to point out the spot. It's a major letdown situation for UCLA following the Bruins' 82-79 victory against sixth-ranked Oregon on Thursday. Oregon State played the Bruins fairly tight in the first meeting losing 76-63. The Bruins also had just played Oregon before that game. Stephen Thompson Jr., Oregon's second-leading scorer, is from LA and should be pumped. The Beavers have done well from an ATS standpoint in this series covering eight of the last 10. UCLA often is overpriced, which is the case here. The Bruins are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Pac-12 games and 1-5 ATS the past six times they've been home chalk.
02-12-17	Nevada +4 v. San Diego State	Top	56-70	Loss	-110	10 h 44 m	Show
These teams met early last month in Reno and Nevada won, 72-69, as two-point favorites. A key to the Wolf Pack's victory was outrebounding the Aztecs by 12 boards. Nevada is the better rebounding team, leads the Mountain West in 3-point defense and outscores San Diego State by an average of 10 points a game. The Wolf Pack have the matchup edges, motivation and history to beat the Aztecs straight-up again. San Diego State still plays outstanding defense. However, the Aztecs have lost some of their home mystique with losses to New Mexico and Colorado State since the calendar turned 2017. The Aztecs are a bad rebounding team - ranking last in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding - and have trouble scoring ranking last in the conference in scoring and free throws attempted per game. The Aztecs rely on defense and 3-point shooting. They rank 284th, though, in 3-point accuracy and Nevada has a strong perimeter defense. The Wolf Pack are in a dogfight with Boise State and Colorado State to win the Mountain West. The big question is can the Wolf Pack win on the road? They had a bad loss to Utah State, falling 74-57 on Feb. 1, in their last road game. Prior to that game, however, the Wolf Pack posted three consecutive road victories defeating New Mexico, Wyoming and Boise State. The wins against Wyoming and Boise State were in blowout fashion. My feeling is Nevada learned from that road loss to Utah State and should produce a high level game here. Nevada has been a huge money-maker in this spread range covering 13 of the last 16 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack also is 18-6-2 ATS the last 26 times facing an above .500 foes.
02-11-17	Celtics v. Jazz OVER 205.5		112-104	Win	100	6 h 34 m	Show
The Jazz are playing their most consistent on offense reaching triple digits in 11 of their last 15 games, including the past five. Boston has reached triple digits in 26 of its last 27 games. The over has cashed in eight of the Celtics' last 10 road games. The teams met early last month and Boston won 115-104 for a combined 219 points. The teams have a history of going over the total when playing in Utah with the over cashing five of the past six times.
02-11-17	Siena v. Marist +6.5		84-77	Loss	-110	10 h 17 m	Show
Marist isn't very good. We know that. But Sienna can't be trusted as road chalk. The Saints aren't strong enough.The records bear this out. The Saints have failed to cover nine of the past 12 times they've been favored. Sienna also is just 6-15-1 against the spread the past 22 times it has been a road favorite.
02-11-17	North Texas v. Florida International -4.5	Top	71-90	Win	100	12 h 40 m	Show
This is a stop-the-pain home game for Florida International, losers of four in a row. The timing is ripe for the Golden Panthers to do just that. Florida International catches North Texas fat and happy after the Mean Green posted a 70-64 road upset win against Florida Atlantic this past Thursday. That victory halted an 11-game losing streak for the Mean Green. North Texas, though, is horrible on the road going 5-16-1 ATS during its last 22 away contests and has failed to cover the past five times following a rare victory. North Texas isn't used to winning, far less so on the road. The Golden Panthers won't lack for motivation. They can just remember last year's game when they blew a 12-point lead with around six minutes left in a 77-75 road loss to the Mean Green during their previous meeting. Stephen Nover Saturday Free Pick Northern Illinois plus 4 1/2 at Western Michigan The combination of getting the better team with the superior defense and a bunch of points puts me on Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois is four games above .500 while Western Michigan is 8-15. According to the latest Ken Pomeroy's ratings, Northern Illinois ranks 194th, while Western Michigan is 205th. The Huskies have the 70th stingiest defense in the country giving up 68.2 points per game. That number actually comes down to 65.6 when they are on the road. By contrast, Western Michigan allows 78.6 points a game. The Broncos are off a 72-55 win against Miami of Ohio in their last game this past Tuesday. They have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a victory. Northern Illinois is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times playing Western Michigan. The Huskies have covered three of their past four road games, all as either an underdog or pick.
02-11-17	Fordham +7 v. George Mason		67-73	Win	100	9 h 26 m	Show
Fordham is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus George Mason. The Rams can take advantage of George Mason being a poor favorite in this spread range - 1-8 ATS laying from 7 to 12 1/2 points - and coming off a 76-69 upset victory against Davidson this past Wednesday night. The Patriots were 11-point underdogs in that game against Davidson. So it wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots' intensity was down a notch here.
02-10-17	Hawks -125 v. Kings	Top	107-108	Loss	-125	16 h 0 m	Show
Not only does Atlanta hold a class difference here, but the Hawks match up well to the Kings. That's continually proven with the Hawks covering 14 of the last 17 in the series, including winning 106-95 in the team's first meeting this season. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven visits to Sacramento. The Hawks are playing well winning 16 of their last 22. They have covered 10 of their last 14 on the road. Atlanta holds a backcourt edge with Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr., both of whom are playing at high levels. The Kings' backcourt may be down Ty Lawson, who suffered a leg injury in the Kings' 108-92 win against the Celtics this past Wednesday. The Kings' major weapon - and only consistent one with Rudy Gay out for the season - is big man DeMarcus Cousins. Dwight Howard can neutralize Cousins, though. Howard had 18 points, 11 rebounds and four blocked shots when the Hawks won the earlier meeting by 11 points. Howard limited Cousins to just 14 points in that game. The Kings always have maturity questions. They could be in a major letdown mood after their impressive 16-point victory versus Boston. The Kings achieved that win without Cousins, who was suspended for that game. Sacramento is 1-6-1 ATS following a victory.
02-10-17	Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 211.5		122-106	Win	100	5 h 28 m	Show
The Timberwolves still aren't playing good defense. They've allowed triple digits during their past 12 games. Minnesota gave up 117 points to the Pelicans in the first meeting between the two teams this season. The Pelicans rank 23rd defensively. They just yielded 127 points to the offensively-challenge Jazz. The over has cashed the last five times the teams have met.
02-10-17	Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 216		122-107	Loss	-103	5 h 16 m	Show
Do not expect a repeat of the Grizzlies 128-119 overtime victory against the Warriors from Jan. 6. The Warriors blew a huge lead in that game and have had this matchup circled ever since. Golden State can play defense ranking No. 1 in 3-point defense and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. Memphis allows only 99.1 points per game. Just two teams give up fewer points per game. This is the Grizzlies' third straight home game. They are playing outstanding defense during this homestand holding the Spurs to 74 points and the Suns to 91 points.
02-10-17	Harvard -5 v. Brown		87-74	Win	100	6 h 15 m	Show
The last time Brown defeated Harvard was 2009. The Bears have dropped 14 in a row to the Crimson. I'm going to ride that streak agreeing with the early money movement on Harvard. The Crimson is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Ivy League games and 12-3-2 ATS during their past 17 games. Brown has yet to find consistency dropping six of its last eight.
02-10-17	Dayton v. Rhode Island -3.5		75-74	Loss	-110	5 h 7 m	Show
Rhode Island has been playing excellent defense in winning its last four games. Not only is this a revenge game for the Rams, who lost 67-64 at Dayton, but it's crucial for their Atlantic 10 chances and possible NCAA Tourney berth. The Rams have held four of their last five opponents to below 1.00 in points per possession with the national average being 1.05. The Rams rank in the top 15 in 3-point defense and in the top 60 in percentage of blocked shots and steals. Dayton had a struggle on Tuesday before dispatching St. Joe's. The Flyers have already lost road games to UMass and VCU. Rhode Island is 11-1 at home and is 3-0-1 ATS the past four times hosting Dayton.
02-09-17	Celtics +1.5 v. Blazers	Top	120-111	Win	100	15 h 1 m	Show
Every NBA team is going to encounter a flat spot during the course of such a long season. It happened to the Celtics last night. They lost to the Kings, 108-92, despite Sacramento not having suspended DeMarcus Cousins. The Celtics committed 18 turnovers, shot 39.7 percent from the floor and only had four fast-break points. Prior to that game, though, Boston had won seven straight games. The Celtics had reached triple-digits in 25 consecutive games. I see Boston bouncing back strong in this matchup. Fatigue shouldn't factor since Boston last played on Sunday before losing to the Kings. The Celtics also have won five consecutive times when playing without rest, covering four of the five. The Celtics should be use to West Coast time now. If they need extra motivation, the Celtics can point to Jan. 21. The Trail Blazers defeated the Celtics, 127-123 in overtime, on that date in Boston despite finishing their own four-game, six-day road trip back then. The Trail Blazers are off a last-second one-point road victory against the Mavericks two days ago. That was a costly victory for Portland as it lost swingman and key reserve Evan Turner to a broken hand. The Trail Blazers don't have a strong bench, nor good big men to take advantage of Boston's rebounding weakness. Portland is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory. The Celtics have covered 70 percent of their last 18 road contests.
02-09-17	Jazz v. Mavs OVER 193.5		105-112	Win	100	6 h 31 m	Show
Given the current form of these two teams, the total is too low. The Jazz are averaging 114 ponts during their last four games. They are off their two highest scoring games of the season. Dallas is averaging 106 points during its last three games. The over has cashed in 15 of the last 21 meetings played in Dallas between the two teams.
02-09-17	North Texas +7 v. Florida Atlantic		70-64	Win	100	10 h 6 m	Show
Florida Atlantic is in a letdown spot as mid-size home chalk after upsetting Old Dominion this past Saturday as an 11-point road 'dog. Florida Atlantic isn't strong enough to cover this number if not playing well. North Texas is looking for its first Conference USA win and will be loose. The Owls are 1-7 ATS when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points.
02-09-17	Belmont -4.5 v. Jacksonville State		66-53	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
Belmont has too much offense for Jacksonville State and is a far better free throw shooting team. The teams met on Jan. 19 and Belmont won easily, 77-60. Belmont has covered its last five road games and is 18-6 ATS versus opponents that have a winning home mark. Jacksonville State has been a money-burner at home failing to cover in eight of its last nine home contests.
02-08-17	Stanford v. Arizona -13.5		67-74	Loss	-105	11 h 9 m	Show
I see a blowout here. Arizona has dominated Stanford winning and covering during the past five meetings while winning the last 14 in the series. This includes the Wildcats burying the Cardinal, 91-52, earlier this season. The Wildcats are going to be fired up, too, after having their 15-game win streak come to an end this past Saturday in a bad 85-58 road loss to Oregon. Arizona's front line depth is even better now with the return of Alonzo Trier. Stanford is a bit fat and happy, too, after upsetting Utah this past Saturday. The Cardinal had a rare good shooting game in that matchup. It's not going to happen here. The Cardinal ranks near the bottom in the Pac-12 in all the key offensive categories. Arizona has won 67 of its last 68 home games, including 18 in a row. I don't see Stanford keeping it close at all.
02-08-17	Raptors -3 v. Wolves		109-112	Loss	-110	13 h 14 m	Show
DeMar DeRozan is back and so are the Raptors. Toronto has won two in a row and is looking to reclaim the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. DeRozan had missed seven of eight games with an ankle injury, but returned on Monday in the Raptors' last game and scored 31 points in a 118-109 home win versus the Clippers. Minnesota has dropped four in a row. The Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 115.8 points during their losing streak, most in the league during this span. The team is in a funk after finding that promising guard Zach LaVine is out for the season with a torn ACL in his knee. The Raptors can take advantage of Minnesota's lack of depth. Minnesota shot 51.1 percent from the floor when the teams last met on Dec. 8 in Toronto. The Raptors still won, 124-110. That was the ninth time in the last 11 meetings the Raptors have covered versus the Timberwolves, who have failed to also cover in five of their last six games at Target Center.
02-08-17	Suns v. Grizzlies OVER 210		91-110	Loss	-102	11 h 47 m	Show
Phoenix is the 11th-highest scoring team in the NBA, but allows the second-most points per game at 112.6. Memphis has picked up its scoring. The Grizzlies have scored at least 101 points in 11 of their last 13 games. Part of their offensive transformation comes from Marc Gasol enjoying his finest all-around offensive season. The Suns have scored 105 or more points in nine of their last 10 games. Eric Booker is having a monster season for them. However, the Suns have also surrendered at least 111 points in seven of their last eight games. Note, too, that the over has cashed seven of the past eight times the teams have played in Memphis.
02-08-17	Suns +10 v. Grizzlies		91-110	Loss	-103	10 h 18 m	Show
The Grizzlies have a history of playing to the level of their competition and are in a prime flat spot. Memphis just defeated San Antonio, 89-74, at home on Monday and hosts Golden State on Friday. So the Grizzlies can be excused if they overlook the Suns. Phoenix averages 106.6 points a game, 11th-best in the NBA. The Suns shouldn't lack motivation with revenge for a 19-point home loss suffered to the Grizzlies on Jan. 30 and have covered four of their last five road games.
02-08-17	Wizards v. Nets +10	Top	114-110	Win	100	10 h 47 m	Show
Granted Brooklyn is terrible losers of 21 of its last 22 games. But this is a rich spot for the Nets and they're collecting a boatload of points. Brooklyn has covered four of the last five times when getting nine or more points. The Nets usually can be counted on to provide a good effort. They rank 16th in scoring, play hard and are a better free throw shooting team than Washington. They have ample motivation opening a four-game homestand looking to halt a 10-game losing streak. The Nets also have double-revenge incentive for two December losses. They were blown out at Verizon Center, but only lost 118-113 at home to the Wizards. Washington could have trouble getting up for this game. The Wizards' energy may be at low ebb, too, coming off a 140-135 home overtime loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday night. That was the Wizards' biggest game of the season and ended their seven-game win streak. I still question the Wizards' maturity level especially after Bradley Beal started dancing in overtime with the Wizards leading Cleveland by two points. Washington is 0-4 ATS the past four times playing a foe with a losing home record. The Wizards are back home Friday to host the Pacers. It's going to be difficult for the Wizards to care much about this game. The Nets lost 111-107 to the Hornets in Charlotte last night. Only one Nets player logged more than 29 minutes, though.
02-08-17	Rutgers v. Ohio State -10.5		64-70	Loss	-110	12 h 51 m	Show
There's a major class difference here as Ohio State is coming on and catches Rutgers coming off a huge 70-68 road win against Penn State this past Saturday. That was Rutgers' first road win in 24 Big Ten games. Ohio State is 3-0 versus Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten. The Buckeyes buried Rutgers, 94-68, at home last season. Rutgers is improved, but not to the point where it can stay within double-digits of the Buckeyes in Columbus.
02-08-17	Baylor +2.5 v. Oklahoma State		72-69	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
Baylor has lost two in a row. But Oklahoma State being favored against the Bears is an overreaction. The Bears were contending to be top-ranked last week before losing games to Kansas State and Kansas. Now the Bears are in stop-the-pain mode. No Big 12 team plays better defense than Baylor, which gives up the fewest points per game and is No. 1, too, in defensive field goal percentage. Baylor also ranks No. 1 in RPI. I see Baylor, which defeated Oklahoma State earlier this season, trumping the Cowboys this time around with its superior defense.
02-07-17	San Diego State -6.5 v. San Jose State		71-76	Loss	-105	15 h 17 m	Show
San Jose State is much improved. But I don't see the Spartans winning a season-high third consecutive game. San Diego State has won five of seven since opening 0-3 in the Mountain West. Its two losses were by a combined four points. The Aztecs have a plus 34 scoring margin. The buy sign is on them here with San Jose State in a letdown spot and the Aztecs expected to have Zylan Cheatham, Malik Pope and Max Hoetzel all playing. San Diego State beat San Jose State, 76-61, on Jan. 10. The Aztecs are a level higher than the Spartans, good enough to win by double-digits again especially with a full lineup. The Spartans are off a huge 78-68 road win against New Mexico this past Saturday. They were 10 1/2-point 'dogs in that game. That was their first victory ever against the Lobos in 14 tries.