Open the season with 17 straight losses and you're marked as a terrible team. That's the case with Philadelphia.
The 76ers rank as among the worst teams in the NBA. But they are better than perceived, have under-the-radar talent and lately have been proving to be a money-maker covering eight of their last 13 games. They also are 4-0 ATS the last four times taking 15 or more points.
Philly is a respectable 5-6 straight-up in its last 11 games. Now I realize those victories came against the Hawks, who were resting three starters, and versus four other opponents with a combined winning percentage of less than .400.
But do realize, too, the 76ers are much improved. Nerlens Noel is making a late challenge for rookie of the year honors. He's averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds per game during his last five games. Another rookie, Jerami Grant, has been displaying  potential lately and Robert Covington can be a capable scorer.
The 76ers, unlike many veteran teams, have fresh legs at this late stage of the season because of their extreme youth. Before getting blown out by the Clippers at home, 119-98, on Friday night the 76ers had held their previous five foes to an average of 91.4 points per game.
Talking perception again. The 76ers aren't perceived as being a prideful team - just a rebuilding lottery squad. Yet they are 13-3 ATS the last 16 times following a double-digit defeat. I see them playing hard here following that bad home loss. They want to do their best against LeBron James.
This is an awkward scheduling spot for the Cavaliers. This is their first game back from a three-game road trip. Cleveland's next game isn't until Thursday. So focus could be a problem for the Cavaliers.
Yes, the Cavaliers can beat the 76ers just by showing up with their huge talent edge. But covering this big of a spread is a different matter. The 76ers haven't been this big of underdogs in nearly two months. They are a different team since then.

The Nuggets are a much improved team since Melvin Hunt replaced clueless Brian Shaw. Denver is 8-6 under Hunt and can prove dangerous in the right spot.
This is a good spot for the Nuggets.
Both Denver and Portland are off excellent victories last night. But the Trail Blazers carry a much higher fatigue rating. This marks their fourth game in five days and first home game following consecutive road wins against the Jazz and Suns.
Portland has a weak bench - made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews - and plays again on Monday at home against Phoenix while the Nuggets won't play again until Wednesday. That should ensure an all-out effort by the Nuggets.
Yes, motivation can be a factor for non-playoff teams such as Denver, but the Nuggets have triple revenge incentive. They are a much different team now than the previous three times the Trail Blazers played and defeated them.
Ty Lawson must play well for the Nuggets to be competitive. There are strong indications that is going to happen. Lawson has been performing well putting up 18 points and nine assists in an easy victory against the Jazz Friday night. This is what Hunt said about Lawson following that win, "The kid is playing some of the best basketball I've seen him play. That speed is special. It's a special weapon."
Lawson may be the quickest point guard in the NBA. He's caused Portland problems in the past averaging 24.7 points and nine assists in the first three meetings. Portland has an excellent point guard, too, in Damian Lillard. But Lillard has logged major minutes this season and the four games in five days factor could affect him a great deal against Lawson.
Under Hunt, the Nuggets have gone 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a straight-up victory. They also have covered in five of their last seven road matchups.

Golden State is averaging 112.6 points per game in its last six games and now Klay Thompson has regained his shooting touch.
The over has cashed in seven of the Warriors' last nine games.
The Bucks just faced four defensive-minded Eastern Conference teams - the Pacers, Heat, Cavaliers and Nets. Now they go up-tempo against a Western Conference club. The last time the Bucks played an elite Western Conference team they lost 114-103 to San Antonio at home five games ago.

Utah's defense has slipped. The Jazz are giving up 101.3 points per game during their last three games.

The Nuggets can be unpredictable on offense, but they are committed now to playing at a faster tempo. Defensively, the Nuggets rank 27th giving up an average of 103.8 points per game.

Gordon Hayward was healthy during the shoot around and is expected to play for the Jazz, which is a huge boost to their offense.

I can't see San Antonio losing for the second time in three nights to Dallas.
The big question is can the Spurs cover this high number? I believe they can based on how well they've been playing - especially at home - and given Dallas' current road woes.
The Mavericks are 1-5 in their last six road contests with the lone victory coming against the Lakers, who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. During this span, four of Dallas' road losses have come by 15 or more points.
Dallas has failed to cover in its last six road matchups and last won at San Antonio during the regular season in 2010, a span of eight consecutive defeats. The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus foes with a winning home mark.
Kawhi Leonard is healthy and Tony Parker finally is playing better. Those factors have helped turn the Spurs back into being an elite force. They are 9-1 in their last 10 home games, 7-3 ATS, with the only loss coming to the red-hot Cavaliers when Kyrie Irving went off for 57 points.
The Spurs followed up their loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday night with a smashing 130-91 victory over Oklahoma City two nights ago. Gregg Popovich is stepping on the gas. I don't see the Spurs regressing here.   

I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones.
The Wolfpack showed they were capable of big things if getting on a roll owning victories against Duke and North Carolina.
North Carolina State has a very strong backcourt - much better than Louisville's - with excellent guards and its frontcourt players are stepping up. This is the winning formula for the Wolfpack as the Cardinals can't match NCS's guard play.
I'm not impressed with the Cardinals. I believe the wrong team is favored. Yes, Louisville stepped up to beat Northern Iowa, 66-53, this past Sunday. But this is not one of Rick Pitino's stronger Cardinal teams. Northern Iowa doesn't have NC State's athleticism. Neither does Cal Irvine of the Big West Conference. Those were the two teams Louisville beat to advance this far in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina State has a dynamic, deep backcourt and athletic frontcourt players, the kind that cause problems for the Cardinals.  
Freshman Quentin Snider is replacing the suspended senior Jones. He's played well in the tournament - so far. I think Jones' absence, though, will be particularly noticed in this matchup.
The teams met on Feb. 14 in Louisville - and North Carolina State won, 74-65. The Wolfpack held the Cardinals to less than 30 percent shooting from the floor. That's not a fluke as the Cardinals are not a good shooting team especially from 3-point range where they ranked 312th.

Detroit has scored at least 105 points in four of its last five games. This scoring burst has coincided with Greg Monroe being out. Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Andre Drummond have all been thriving offensively since Monroe went out.

Orlando's defense has gone back downhill. Orlando is giving up an average of 109.6 points during its last six games. The Magic's offense received a boost, though, with Tobias Harris back. 

The over has cashed in six of Orlando's last seven home games.

Both teams were playing better defense when they met two weeks ago in Indiana. The Pacers won that meeting, 109-103, in overtime. But if you discount the overtime, there were 192 points scored in regulation, which went above the 188 closing over/under.
Fast forward and now the teams meet again with a slightly lower total listed. Yet, neither club is in good defensive form. The Pacers are giving up an average of 108.1 points per game in their last six games.
The Bucks held Miami to 88 points in their last game, but during their previous three games surrendered an average of 107.6 points a game.
Both teams have strong benches. Milwaukee's reserves should score more with O.J. Mayo back healthy and the likely possibility that Jared Dudley also will return beginning with this game.
This game is in the near pick range so overtime remains more of a possibility just like when they last met.

The marketplace has been betting this total up partly because rugged 6-foot-9 North Carolina forward Kennedy Meeks isn't likely to play because of a knee sprain. Meeks leads the Tar Heels in blocked shots, but he also averages better than 11 points a game and is North Carolina's most accurate shooter making 56.5 percent of his field goals.
If Meeks can't play he would be replaced by another big inside man, 6-10, 280-pound Joel James.
The Tar Heels are going to want to run. Wisconsin isn't going to let that happen. The Badgers have a very efficient offense with no weak parts. But they've always been about defense under defensive guru Bo Ryan, who is even more dangerous with extra preparation time.
The Badgers rank 10th in the country in scoring defense giving up 56.8 points per game. That average shrinks even lower to 56 on the road. Wisconsin gives up the fewest points off turnovers of any team in the country. North Carolina thrives off turnovers and in transition, but that isn't going to happen here. I don't trust Marcus Paige against a defense as savvy as Wisconsin's.
Paige is better going against up-temp teams. The Tar Heels had problems against slow-paced Harvard in their opening NCAA Tournament game winning just 67-65 while turning the ball over 18 times. The combined score of 132 went under.
North Carolina is a bit underrated defensively. The Tar Heels held 23 of their 37 opponents to 40 percent shooting or less from the floor.
Badgers guard Traevon Jackson is going to play for the first time since breaking his foot on Jan. 11. Jackson has looked rusty in practice, which is understandable. So while his minutes could be down from the more than 27 minutes he averaged before his injury, Wisconsin's offense might suffer while he's back in the lineup.   

Sacramento has won three in a row. Phoenix has won four straight. So something has to give.
The Kings are not a good road team, but Phoenix isn't strong enough to lay this many points especially on the defensive end where it holds foes to fewer than two points less per game than Sacramento.
Barring a semi-miracle, the Suns aren't a playoff team. If you discount the Suns' 117-point performance against Houston two games ago, they are averaging 89.4 points during their last seven games. The Suns have a losing spread record at home during their past 15 games at U.S. Airways Center.
Phoenix has bigger games on deck hosting Portland on Friday and Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Suns may still be without point guard Brandon Knight, who has missed the last six games with an ankle injury.
You can't judge the Kings by their 25-45 overall record. They are far more respectable since George Karl replaced Tyrone Corbin. Rudy Gay is thriving under Karl's system and DeMarcus Cousins is putting up superstar numbers. Cousins is a matchup nightmare for the undersized Suns and center Alex Len, who is just returning from an ankle injury.
 

Cleveland is hot winning 27 of its last 33. The Cavaliers are comfortably in second place in the Eastern Conference with little chance of moving up or down.
The Cavs very well may be the best team in the East. But they should not be road chalk against Memphis.
The Grizzlies also are playing well winning five of their last six, including the past three winning all five of these games by 11 or more points. The Grizzlies have the second-best record in the much stronger Western Conference, which is a surprise to some. The Grizzlies have a chip on their shoulder and want to prove themselves versus elite competition, which is what they face here. It's also a revenge spot for Memphis, which lost 105-91 on the road to the Cavaliers on Dec. 21 when it was missing Zach Randolph and had not traded for Jeff Green yet.
Memphis has a strong home-court. The Grizzlies have won 27 of their 34 home games, while Cleveland is three games above .500 on the road - and that's playing in the much weaker Eastern Conference.  
The Grizzlies present match up problems for every team with their No. 2 ranked defense and physical front line. Cleveland gives up 45.4 points in the paint on the road, which ranks fourth from the bottom. No team scores more points inside than Memphis thanks to Randolph and Marc Gasol. Randolph is a double-double machine and is likely to be guarded by Kevin Love, a weak defender.
The Cavaliers have been taking far more 3-pointers since acquiring gunner J.R. Smith. The Grizzlies hold foes to less than 33 percent shooting from 3-point range at FedEx Forum. That figure would rank No. 2 in the league if it included all of Memphis' games.
 
 

Expect the Heat to play hard in order to make amends for blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead last night on the road against the Bucks in an 89-88 loss. Milwaukee pulled out the victory on a 3-pointer by Khris Middleton at the buzzer.
Miami is 4-1-2 ATS the past seven times when playing without rest. This is a crucial game for the Heat especially following that loss to Milwaukee as the Heat, Bucks and Celtics are all fighting for a playoff spot.
The Heat are 0-2 on their current four-game road trip having lost to Oklahoma City, which plays extremely well at home, this past Sunday. Before these past two games, though, the Heat had been playing well having won three in a row defeating the Cavaliers, Trail Blazers and Nuggets.
Miami may not have center Hassan Whiteside, who suffered a cut between two fingers against the Bucks and had to have 10 stiches. If he is able to play it would be a nice plus. But I like the Heat covering this number even if Whiteside doesn't play. Boston has a small front line without Jared Sullinger. The Heat wouldn't have problems matching up to the Celtics in the paint with Udonis Haslem, Michael Beasley and Luol Deng.  
Dwayne Wade will be the best player on the court and he's been playing well.
The Celtics are expected to get back point guard Isaiah Thomas, who has missed the past eight games because of a bad back. Boston went 5-3 in those games. Thomas is a streak shooter who figures to be rusty. He's also a ball hog so it's going to take time for the Celtics to get back in sync with him running things instead of Evan Turner.

Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark.
Old Dominion is overrated. The Monarchs are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times going against an opponent with a winning mark. Their star point guard, Trey Freeman, is limping on a sprained ankle. Even if Freeman were 100 percent, the Monarchs would be hard-pressed to match up against Murray State's strong backcourt.
Against four common opponents - Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Illinois State and UTEP -  Old Dominion went 2-5 while Murray State went 4-0 winning each game by double-digits.
Old Dominion is strong defensively, but Murray State can score on any team. The Racers put up 83 in their last game upsetting a top-40 defensive team, Tulsa, on the road.

Portland ranks fifth in defensive field goal percentage. Golden State is No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage.

It's going to be even more difficult for the Trail Blazers to score as they likely will be missing LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Chris Kaman, who doesn't play any defense. All three players are doubtful. 

The under has cashed in 23 of Portland's last 35 home games while the under has cashed in eight of Golden State's last 11 road games.

Oklahoma City has lost much of its star power and depth. That's not a good combination when laying a big number especially with a huge game on deck tomorrow night.
But that's the situation the Thunder are in minus Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and now guard Andre Roberson, who suffered an ankle injury on Sunday and will be out several weeks.
The Thunder are playing well having won three in a row, including impressively beating hot Miami at home this past Sunday. This, though, is a flat spot for them especially when they play at San Antonio on Wednesday in a much more challenging matchup.
The Lakers have lost nine of their last 11, but are off a 101-87 home victory against the 76ers this past Sunday. Quietly, the Lakers have been a huge money-maker this month cashing 11 of their last 14, including their last five road games. They have not lost by more than seven points during their last 14 games.

Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season.

Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts.

The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage.

The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover.

The under has cashed the past seven times in Seattle's home games. It's easy to see why. The last nine games played in Seattle have averaged less than a combined 107 points per game. 

Seattle ranks 51st in defense. The Redhawks are especially tough defensively at home allowing 56.1 points per game on 37.3 percent shooting from the floor. The Redhawks play at a slow pace, too, which is huge for the under. 

Colorado averages 69.1 points per game game, but that averages goes down six points a game when it is on the road. 

Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player.
Yet, the Monarchs are favored. What gives? Old Dominion is playing at home. That's what. The Monarchs own a 22-game home win streak at "The Ted," including going 18-0 this season.
Still, Old Dominion shouldn't rate favorite status in this matchup. Illinois State has a winning road record. One of the Redbirds' road victories occurred against NCAA Tournament entrant Alabama-Birmingham, which defeated Old Dominion in a Conference USA game. A sell out isn't expected. The Monarchs averaged 7,132 fans during the regular season. They had around 4,700 fans for their first round NIT game and as of Saturday afternoon had only sold around 2,500 tickets for this game. NIT games don't excite the home faithful like NCAA Tournament games do.
The Redbirds have covered in six of their last seven nonconference matchups. Old Dominion is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus foes with a winning record.
Old Dominion suffered its worst defeat of the season - and lowest point production - in a 64-45 loss to Illinois State in the Paradise Jam on Nov. 23. The Monarchs never could figure out Illinois State's mixed zone defenses. They also were outrebounded by 11 boards. The Monarchs rank 241st in 3-point shooting and 245th in free throw percentage. The Redbirds hold foes to an average of 62.4 points per game.
The Monarch's also may be missing their best player, junior point guard Trey Freeman. He leads the team in scoring and assists. Freeman, a first team All-Conference USA selection, sprained his ankle in practice this past Saturday and is questionable to play. If he does play he's unlikely to be 100 percent.

  

Scoring is up, defense is down for both of these teams.

The Nets have scored at least 122 points in three of their last four games. Brooklyn has allowed an average of 108.7 points per game in regulation during its past four games.

The Celtics have allowed an average of 109.3 points during their last three games. Boston gets back point guard Marcus Smart.

Here we have two lottery teams with nothing to lose. The 76ers are used to playing half-court Eastern Conference ball. Now they get to play an up-tempo Western Conference team that doesn't play defense. The Lakers rank 28th in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage.
 The last time the 76ers played a team from the Western Conference was five games ago and they scored 114 points off Sacramento, an equally bad defense.
The Lakers have faced three strong defenses in a row - the Hawks, Warriors and Jazz. They scored 105 points on the Warriors, who are No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage.
The Lakers have been idle since Thursday so they should bring a lot of energy.

This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country.
Virginia is just as disciplined as Michigan State with a similar grind-it-out offense. The Cavaliers are plain better up and down the rotation especially with their best all-around player, Justin Anderson, having his timing and sea legs back since returning from a broken finger.
Virginia won the always tough Atlantic Coast Conference. Its only defeats were to Duke, Louisville and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia has secretly been hoping for this matchup. The Cavaliers want to revenge last year's 61-59 loss to Michigan State in a Sweet 16 matchup.
The Spartans lack the offensive firepower and go-to guy to successfully score on Virginia's dominant defense that gave up just 51. 2 points per game. The Cavaliers' fierce defense gets all the media attention, but they also ranked 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Both teams played last night. The Trail Blazers lost to the Magic and Memphis upset Dallas on the road by 11 points.
The Grizzlies are better equipped to handle this matchup of teams playing without rest. The Trail Blazers are playing their fifth road game in seven days. Their weak bench is made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews.
Memphis' depth has improved with Mike Conley and Vince Carter back. The Grizzlies are a much better team with Conley in the lineup. He had missed four games with an ankle injury until returning last night versus Dallas.
Portland is not a good road team as evidenced by their 16-17 away mark, 15-18 ATS. Memphis has one of the strongest home courts in the league.
The Trail Blazers rely heavily on LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Both played big minutes last night. The Grizzlies are a tough matchup for the Trail Blazers because they have excellent physical frontcourt defenders and Tony Allen is a defensive whiz who can defend Lillard.
Memphis has won eight of the last nine in the series, covering seven of the past eight. They are 3-0 this season against the Trail Blazers.

The Bulls have been up and down. Now they are on an up cycle. They've won two in a row beating the Pacers and Raptors at home. Taj Gibson returned in last night's 16-point victory against the Raptors after missing the past 10 games with an elbow injury. All-Star guard Jimmy Butler could return tonight.
Chicago is trying to earn the No. 2 seed in the East. The Bulls can't afford to slip against the lowly Pistons, losers of 11 of their last 12. Chicago is 20-14 on the road. Detroit is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.
The Bulls are not a great team. But they are still several tiers above Detroit even without Butler. Chicago is 9-6 minus Butler. The Bulls look much better when not going against elite Western Conference opponents. The Pistons are definitely a team they can handle.
The Pistons are a dead team. They lost 94-83 in their last game to the 76ers this past Wednesday. The Pistons are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA and are far less effective inside with Greg Monroe out. Detroit was outscored 40-20 in the paint by the 76ers. Monroe missed that game with a strained knee and is doubtful to play against the Bulls.

Nothing against Villanova. The Wildcats are very good. I just don't believe North Carolina State is getting enough respect here. The Wolfpack don't have any major weaknesses. They are a tough ACC team and have proven resilient coming from a late 14-point second half deficit to beat LSU in their opening round NCAA Tournament game.
The Wolfpack have defeated Duke and won road games against Louisville and North Carolina. An added plus for the Wolfpack is the return of Anthony Barber, who is averaging 17.5 points during his last 11 games.
Villanova may not be as sharp coming off an easy win against an easy first round tournament opponent, Lafayette.

Arizona wasn't thrilled allowing Texas Southern to score 72 points. I'm expecting a stronger Wildcats' defensive effort against Ohio State.
Ohio State allows just 62.7 points per game. Arizona struggles to score when facing strong defenses. So under is the way to go in this matchup.

UCLA is coming on. The Bruins' young talent has come together winning five of their last six with their only defeat coming to Arizona in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament.

Back in November, when they still were far from peaking, the Bruins beat the Blazers by 12 in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas.

UAB isn't very good and the Blazers are going to have problems coming down from their monster upset of Iowa State. The Blazers were lucky to win the Conference USA Tournament, which they hosted, or they wouldn't have received a bid to the NCAA Tournament having finished fourth in the conference during the regular season.

Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton.
Dunn is a great all-around guard, who also was the co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Henton led the Big East in scoring and was seventh in rebounding.
Dayton ranked 300th in the country in rebounding. The Flyers, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference matchups, don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6 in their rotation. Providence, by contrast, has four players who are 6-8 or taller, including two 7-footers. This number doesn't even include Henton, who is 6-6.
Dayton needed home-court advantage to reach this level nipping Boise State, a team from what was a weak Mountain West Conference this year, by one point this past Wednesday. The Flyers came from nine points down to accomplish the feat. I doubt the Flyers would have defeated Boise State if they weren't on their home floor.
Providence has covered the last nine times it has played on a neutral floor. The Friars are the better team and catch Dayton, which doesn't have a strong bench, playing for the fifth time in eight days.

The Grizzlies have had two full days to stew about their loss to Detroit this past Tuesday. The Pistons ended a 10-game losing streak with that victory.
Dallas isn't good at home - covering 42 percent of its games at American Airlines Center - has not fared well versus elite competition and is 8-22-2 ATS in its last 32 games against Western Conference foes. The Mavericks have also failed to cover four of the last five times when laying three or more points.
The Grizzlies are too physical for Dallas. Memphis ranks No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. The Grizzlies also rank in the top 10 in forcing turnovers.
The Mavericks lack the inside muscle to match up well against the Grizzlies. This was evident during their last meeting. That occurred on Jan. 27 in Dallas with the Grizzlies cruising to a 109-90 victory.
There's a chance the Grizzlies get back point guard Mike Conley, who has missed the last four games with a sprained ankle. Conley's absence has hurt the Grizzlies. But I still like them in this spot regardless of Conley's status. If he does suit up it's a nice bonus.

Indiana is an excellent defensive team ranking third in the league in fewest points per game and defensive field goal percentage.
Cleveland is underrated defensively. The Cavaliers' defense has improved with the addition of J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov.
Neither team, though, has been in great defensive form during the last week so we have a fairly high total.
The Pacers are really struggling offensively, averaging 91 points on 40.9 percent shooting during their last three games. The Pacers make their mark on defense not offense. They have lost and failed to cover in their last three matchups. This is a stop-the-pain game for them.
So I'm anticipating a maximum defensive effort. if you discount an off-game against the Raptors two games ago, the Pacers have given up an average of just 87.7 points per game during their last nine games.
I'm expected a strong defensive effort from Cleveland, too. The Cavaliers know they need to regain their earlier defensive dominance having surrendered 106 or more points in three of their last four games.

Now word has come down that LeBron James missed the shoot around today because he was ill. Obviously it would be another huge plus to the under if he didn't play.

Davidson reminds me of Wisconsin except for being smaller. The Wildcats average 79.9 points a game, sixth-highest in the country. They ranked in the top 17 in both 2-point shooting percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Only Wisconsin had a lower turnover percentage than Davidson.
Like Wisconsin, Davidson has that rare combination of shooting well from anyplace on the court while not turning the ball over. They are smart and unselfish just like the Badgers. The Wisconsin comparison is valid and significant because Iowa went 0-2 versus the Badgers losing by an average of 21.5 points.
The Hawkeyes don't shoot nearly as well as Davidson. They ranked 213th in 2-point shooting percentage and 217th in 3-point percentage. They also were 68 spots behind Davidson in turnover percentage.  
Sometimes a late loss can actually spark a team, or at least shake their complacency. That might turn out to be the case with Davidson, which had won 10 in a row before losing in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. The Wildcats won the regular season A-10 title so a letdown in the conference tournament was understandable.
The Wildcats have a strong history when stepping up covering 14 of the last 17 times when playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They also have covered during their last seven non-conference games. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six neutral site games.

Orlando's defense has slipped again. The Magic are giving up an average of 112.3 points per game during their last three games.

Portland has a top 10 offense and is the No. 1 free throw shooting team in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are averaging 107.6 points during their last six games. But their defense hasn't been very good as they've been surrendering 105 points per game during this span.

I don't see Cal Irvine, in its first NCAA Tournament game ever, holding up against the constant pressure of Louisville's outstanding defense. The Anteaters are extremely susceptible to having a spurt or two take them out of the game.
Rick Pitinio has a tremendous track record in the NCAA Tournament with Louisville. The Cardinals have reached the Final Four in two of the past three years capturing the crown in 2013.
Louisville is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 NCAA Tournament games. The Cardinals are battled tested coming from the ACC. They hold opponents to less than 60 points a game. The Anteaters are inexperienced and haven't faced anywhere near the competition the Cardinals have coming from the Big West Conference.

Georgetown is nothing special and has a recent history of playing poorly in the NCAA Tournament.
Eastern Washington is a dangerous underdog because the Eagles have that rare combination of making 3-pointers and getting to the rim. They are tough to prepare against. I see them causing plenty of problems for the Hoyas.
The Eagles are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. They beat Indiana on the road and buried Texas Southern, an NCAA Tournament team, by 24 points.
Sparked by guard Tyler Harvey, the Eagles are the third-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.3 points per game. Harvey shoots 43.5 percent from 3-point range and also is an 85 percent foul shooter. He has scored in double figures in every game this season except one and knows how to get to the foul line.  
A key in this matchup is Eastern Washington's long-range shooting. The Eagles have the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the country of any team that shot more than 700 3-pointers on the season. They average 24.7 treys a game. Yet they rank ninth in the nation in 3-point percentage. Georgetown ranks 267th in defending against 3-pointers. So even if Eastern Washington were to fall behind they still have a strong capability to pull off a back-door cover if needed.
The Eagles are a better free throw shooting team than the Hoyas and have an active rebounder in 6-foot-8 Venky Jois, who helps combat Georgetown's height advantage.

The Suns aren't going to have Brandon Knight nor Alex Len back for this game. They aren't likely to make the playoffs either.

But if Phoenix has any hope of making the postseason it must win this game. The Suns have had four days off since beating the Knicks. This is their season. They won't lack for intensity or preparation.

The Pelicans are off two draining games, a double overtime loss to Denver at home on Sunday and a one-point home win versus the Bucks two days ago. They are the more tired team. It would be a huge break for the Suns if New Orleans held out Anthony Davis, who is bothered by a sore ankle. 

But even if Davis plays, I like the Suns to get the job done here. 

Don't get caught up in any hype about Stephen F. Austin being a Cinderella team. Utah isn't taking the Lumberjacks lightly after Stephen F. Austin upset VCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.
It's easy to forget the Utes were a top 10 team in February. They haven't fallen that far down. They are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games and have too much size and talent for the Lumberjacks, who don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6.
Stephen F. Austin is a prolific scoring team, but Utah ranked 13th in the country in shooting percentage at 48.5 percent. The Lumberjacks can't match the skill set of 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and guard Delon Wright. They also can't match up to the size of Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski, another 7-footer. By contrast, the Lumberjacks' leading rebounder is guard Thomas Walkup.
The Lumberjacks played two NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play this season - Baylor and Xavier. They lost by 16 and 18 points in those games.



  

This year's version of Butler isn't as good as the Brad Stevens' teams of the past. The Bulldogs are just 4-4 in their last eight games and don't match up well to Texas.
The Longhorns opened the season as an elite team. Then they tailed off, but showed signs of regaining their footing down the stretch. Certain teams can give Texas problems. But Butler isn't one of those teams.
Texas led the nation and set a school record in blocks. Butler's top two scorers, Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones, are inside players although Dunham can knock down 3-pointers. Butler finished second in the Big East Conference in two-point field goals.
The Longhorns, however, are extremely tall and athletic. They are very tough to score against inside ranking fourth in the country in defensive field goal percentage.

The Hawks downed the Warriors, 124-116, when the teams met last month. I expect far more defensive intensity in this rematch in a battle of the two teams with the best records.
Atlanta ranks fourth in defense giving up 96.5 points per game. The Warriors rate No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage holdings foes to 42.6 percent.
Kyle Korver and Klay Thompson both are out, too. That's huge from a defensive standpoint.

Gardner-Webb is well-coached and battled-tested. The Runnin' Bulldogs defeated Purdue on the road and defeated Clemson at a neutral site. They have covered in 11 of their last 16 road games. They also are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-league games.
Colorado is going to have to go through an adjustment to deal with Gardner-Webb's up-tempo pace. The Bulldogs love to fire up 3-pointers averaging more than 23 per game. They make 8.1 per game. Colorado is 5-8 when its opponent connects on at least eight 3-pointers.
The Bulldogs will be minus Jerome Hill, their leading scorer and rebounder. Hill had not been shooting well, though, going just 8-for-32 from the field during the last two games.
Colorado isn't motivated for this game playing in the College Basketball Invitational, a third tier tournament. The Buffaloes have a short rotation made shorter by their leading scorer, senior guard Askia Booker, skipping the tournament because he didn't deem it worth his time. That's great for team morale.
The Buffaloes are down to seven normal rotation players because sophomore forward Dustin Thomas, who was averaging nearly 17 minutes per game, won't play either because he is transferring to another school.
Booker's loss is huge as he ran the team. Only three players in the country had a higher percentage of shots their team was involved in than Booker. He accounted for 35.9 percent of the shots Colorado took. 
 

The Pacers are averaging 103.5 points in their last four games. The Bulls are giving up 104.5 points during their last five games.
Chicago's defense has been down all season especially at home. The over has cashed 62 percent of the time during Bulls home games this season.
Indiana is 24-10-1 to the over during its last 35 road contests.

Orlando is a lottery team that has lost eight of its last 10.
But the Magic excel in situations exactly like this, partly because the marketplace usually doesn't care for them.
Orlando has covered 17 of the past 22 times versus foes with a winning home mark. The Magic is 6-1 ATS the past seven times they've been double-digit road 'dogs.
Houston is a bit fat after an impressive road upset win against the Clippers two days ago. The Rockets have more challenging tasks following this matchup hosting improved Denver and playoff-contender Phoenix. There is no reason for the Rockets to go all out against a non-conference lottery foe.
Orlando is vulnerable from 3-point range, which is Houston's strength. However, the Rockets are in a long range shooting slump making just 27.5 percent from beyond the arc during their last five games compared to hitting nearly 35 percent before then.
The Magic have improved a great deal defensively once they got rid of Jacque Vaughn. They are off an embarrassing 123-108 loss to the Cavaliers this past Sunday. This is what Magic coach James Borrego said following that loss to Cleveland. "Tonight (Sunday) was not a great defensive effort. It was probably due to Cleveland and partly our effort, our execution defensively. But we are a defensive team, and I'll continue to say that. Our identity is on the defensive end."
Statistics back up what Borrego says. Even giving up 123 points to the Cavaliers, Orlando still is surrendering nearly three fewer points per game at 99.5 since Borrego replaced Vaughn, while forcing nearly three more turnovers per game, too.
The Rockets historically have trouble with Orlando, too. The Magic have covered nine of the past 10 in the series, including the last four in Houston. The Rockets also may be without starting point guard Patrick Beverley, who is dealing with an elbow injury.

First off, this is not an easy trip logistically for Central Michigan getting to Ruston, La., on short notice. The Chippewas don't have a senior nor did they face a tournament team on the road this season. They had a losing spread record away from home, including losing straight-up three times as road chalk.  

Central Michigan lacks the interior defense, too, to slow down Louisiana Tech ranking 301st defending against two-pointers. 

Louisiana Tech is anchored by three senior starters who want desperately to go to Madison Square Garden after falling in the quarterfinals during last year's NIT. Tech is very strong at home having won 29 in a row.  

Central Michigan isn't a strong enough offensive rebounding team to take advantage of Louisiana Tech's rebounding weakness. 

An off-day in their conference tournament and playing on the road. Those are two key reasons why the James Madison Dukes are underdogs to South Carolina State in an opening round College Insider Tournament game.
A couple of books opened the Spartans as 2 1/2-point favorites. Early betting, though, has pushed the Spartans up to this mid range. I thought the books opened a wrong favorite, so I'm happy to fade the marketplace and back the underdog in this price range.
Yes, James Madison laid an egg in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament losing its opening game to fifth-seeded Hofstra. The Dukes simply had an off day. Three of their players had horrible shooting games. It happens.
It can't take away that the Dukes tied a school record for most single-season victories in CAA play, a conference stronger than South Carolina Upstate's Atlantic Sun. The Spartans didn't play anybody. That's why they have a 23-11 record.
Prior to losing to Hofstra, James Madison had won six of its last seven. The Dukes are 6-1 ATS following a straight-up loss. They have covered in eight of their last 10 road contests.

The Lakers actually have been playing excellent defense during their last six games holding foes to an average of 91.6 points per game during this span.
LA isn't winning, but is staying close and covering spreads. The Lakers have not lost by double digits during their past 12 games and are 7-0 ATS following a straight-up loss. They also have covered in their last four road games.
The Lakers are going with a lot of youngsters. So they are one of the few teams with fresh legs at this late stage of the season. Stronger foes also are resting key players, or at least reducing their minutes when they play the Lakers.
Golden State has one of its bigger games of the season on deck when it hosts Atlanta on Wednesday. It's a revenge spot for the Warriors and a pivotal matchup in deciding the NBA's best record. So I'm not expecting big minutes from their starters, or an all-out intense effort. At the very least, the back-door should be wide open.
The Warriors have had trouble gearing up for lottery teams failing to cover eight of the past nine times versus below .500 opponents. Golden State plays five games during the next eight days. So this figures to be a spot where the Warriors will be reducing starter's minutes.

Portland is averaging 112.3 points during its last four games - all without Wesley Matthews. 

Damion Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge continue to play at high levels and now Nicolas Batum finally has begun to step up. Portland's ball movement has been excellent.

But I expect Washington to score its share of points, too, as John Wall is back to playing at a high level and the Wizards are much more dangerous offensively with Bradley Beal in the lineup. 

Toronto was starting to play better until getting blown out at home last night by Portland. The Raptors have a solid bench. They are 9-4 ATS the past 13 times when playing without rest.

Indiana is a different type of team than Portland. The Raptors match up much better against Indiana. Toronto has won the past three meetings in the series, incuding both times this season with one of the victories coming by 13 at Indiana. 

The Pacers are thin in the backcourt. I'm expecting Kyle Lowry to play much better than he did in the loss to Portland this past Sunday. George Hill is an underrated point guard, but he's not Damian Lillard.

Portland is just an average road team made worse by the absence of Wesley Matthews. The Trail Blazers lost 121-113 to Minnesota in their lone road game since Matthews went down with a ruptured left Achilles tendon.
Toronto has been slumping, but the Raptors took a huge step beating Miami, 102-92, this past Friday. Kyle Lowry is back at point guard and the Raptors are healthy. There has been nothing wrong with their top-five offense. They are averaging 105.5 points per game during their last six games, which is slightly above their season average.

UC Irvine is ready to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Anteaters won the Big West last season by fell in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Lesson learned. They are primed and ready this time. They also draw Hawaii, fresh off an upset of regular-season champion UC Davis.
Hawaii doesn't have enough time to come down after that surprising win. It's also the first time Hawaii has reached a title game since 2002. The Warriors aren't ready to post back-to-back upsets. They are 3-9 in conference tournament games going back to 2005 and 1-4 ATS the past five times they've played foes with a winning record.
The Anteaters are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they've met a foe with a winning record. They also are 2-0 versus Hawaii this season winning 75-60 at home and 78-72 on the road.

The Pistons were blown out last night by the Trail Blazers losing by 19 points. Detroit is 6-0 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS the next game when they didn't cover the spread during their previous game.
Detroit can match up to the Jazz's tall front line with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe, both of whom are having solid seasons. Drummond has pulled down 20 or more rebounds in three of the last five games. The Pistons would catch a major break if Utah center Rudy Gobert, who is having a breakout season, can't play after tweaking his ankle during the Jazz's last game this past Thursday.
The line is high here because Utah is playing its finest ball winning nine of its last 11. Detroit has lost nine in a row to fall out of playoff contention.  This is the Pistons' final game of their road swing. I see a bounce back effort after last night's embarrassing defeat. 
This is the fourth time in their last 10 games the Jazz are laying more than seven points. They are 0-3 ATS the previous three times. Utah is 26th in scoring. The Jazz lack the offense to lay a big number.  
The Pistons can stay with the Jazz. In their last eight road games, the Pistons have only lost by more than seven points twice. During this span, the Pistons beat the Hornets by 28 points, lost by three to the Pelicans, lost by five to the Pacers, lost by four to the Wizards and lost by seven to the Warriors.

With their season on the brink, I don't believe it's a leap of faith to believe the Nets can cover this mid-range number against the 76ers.
This may be the only time all season where the 76ers are fat and happy after coming from 18 points down at home to beat the road-weary Kings, 114-107, last night.
Despite putting up those many points, the 76ers still rank last in the league in scoring and shooting percentage. The Kings rank 28th defensively. The Nets rate a respectable 17th in points allowed per game.
While the 76ers' roster is littered with unknowns, the Nets have star power with Deron Williams (who finally started shooting better), Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez, who is playing better.
The prideful veteran Nets not only have revenge for a loss to the 76ers in their last meeting, but their season is on the line here. Brooklyn has lost five in a row to fall 3 1/2 games back of the last playoff spot in the East with 19 games remaining on the regular season schedule. A loss here to the 76ers, arguably the worst team in the NBA, would be the end.
The Nets have age on them, but they've also been idle the past two days. Philly, on the other hand, is playing for the third time in four days and without rest.
Brooklyn has covered five of its last seven road contests and has taken care of business against bad teams going 11-5 ATS the past 16 times playing foes with a winning percentage below .400.

The Hawks have little to play for these days with the best record in the Eastern Conference all but clinched. That's been evident when the Hawks rested starters in a loss to the 76ers this past Saturday and during a 115-102 blowout loss two nights ago to the lowly Nuggets.
When the Hawks want to play, though, they are an elite team. That was the case a week ago when the beat the surging Cavaliers by nine points.
I see the Hawks wanting to get back on track after that embarrassing defeat to the Nuggets. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS the past nine times following a defeat and has covered 73 percent of its last 27 road games.
Since Feb. 28, the Suns have played three opponents with winning record. In those games they lost by 25 to the Spurs, by 10 to the Cavaliers and by 18 to the Warriors. The losses to the Spurs and Warriors came at home where the Suns have dropped four of six.
Phoenix also might be missing Brandon Knight again. He's dealing with a sprained ankle that caused him to sit out Phoenix's last game this past Wednesday, a victory against the Timberwolves.
The Suns lack the size to hurt Atlanta inside and they give up the second-highest 3-point shooting percentage when playing at home at 38.5 percent. Sparked by sharp-shooter Kyle Korver, the Hawks own the second-best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA at 38.5 percent.

 

Purdue can't afford a loss here being a bubble team. So the Boilermakers won't lack for motivation. 

The timing is excellent for Purdue, which is rested while Penn State is playing for the fourth time in six days and third time in three days.

Purdue has won nine of its last 12 games.

Penn State is too dependent on D.J. Newbill. That's going to catch up to the Nittany Lions here going against the best team in the Big Ten in defensive field goal percentage.

Santa Barbara comes into the Big West Conference Tournament riding a lot of momentum winning its last five games. During this span, the Gauchos have defeated regular-season champion UC-Davis, UC Irvine, Hawaii and Cal Poly in their last game.
The Gauchos defeated the Mustangs, 64-56, at home this past Saturday. This isn't a surprise. The Gauchos have a better record and more talent than Cal Poly.
Don't look for the second-seeded Gauchos to overlook seventh-seeded Cal Poly. Just last year, the Mustangs buried the Gauchos by 31 points after losing to Santa Barbara five days before the tournament. History won't repeat itself.

Seattle was 2-0 versus Chicago State during the regular season winning 57-31 at home and 75-67 on the road. This matchup is in Las Vegas.
Seattle tied for being the top defense in the Western Athletic Conference, while the Cougars are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation averaging 58.4 points per game while shooting less than 38 percent from the floor. They also are not a good free throw shooting team either.
The Redhawks' strength is their backcourt where Isiah Umipig averages 16.7 points per game and Jarell Flora averages 14.2. Both average more than Chicago State's leading scorer. The Cougars, in fact, have only one player averaging more than nine points a game.
I can't see offensively-challenged Chicago State staying without double digits of Seattle.

I recognize that Utah is playing its finest ball right now. The Jazz are 6-1 in their last seven games.
Houston, though, is playing well, too, winning seven of its last 10. The Rockets did lose at Portland last night. But the fatigue factor shouldn't rate high here since prior to meeting Portland, the Rocket last played on Saturday. Houston doesn't play again until Sunday. So a focused, intense effort should be forthcoming as unlike the lottery-bound Jazz, the Rockets are battling for playoff positioning.  
Houston usually takes care of business against below .500 teams covering 14 of the last 18 times in that spot. The Jazz are playing excellent defense, but their last four games have been against the Celtics, 76ers, Nets and Knicks. Now they step way up in class.
The Jazz also could be without their leading scorer, Gordon Hayward. He missed Utah's last game two nights ago due to a back injury.
Houston is the superior team. The Rockets have owned the Jazz winning seven of the past eight meetings, the last three by an average of 21.3 points. It has been 10 games since the Jazz last faced an offensive player as prolific as James Harden, who ranks No. 2 in scoring in the league at 27 points a game.

Oregon State was a nice story during the first half of the season. But the Beavers are shot now down to seven scholarship players and losing while failing to cover in six of their last seven games.
The Beavers don't have the size and bench to beat Colorado. They have been outrebounded in 13 consecutive games. The Beavers also haven't shown they can win away outside of Corvallis dropping 11 of their past 13 away games.
Colorado is coming on as Josh Scott, hurt earlier, is playing well. Sparked by Scott, the Buffaloes have averaged 51.3 percent from the floor during the last three games.
This is clearly a case of two schools heading in opposite directions.

Yes, the Bulls are without their top three scorers although Derrick Rose wasn't having a great season. 

But Chicago still has enough depth and talent to cover this number against the 76ers. Philly has been idle since Saturday when it upset the Hawks. That's too long for the 76ers to sit. They are 0-5 ATS the last five times when playing on three or more days rest. 

The Bulls had to play at the Spurs, who are playing better now, and then hosted the Grizzlies in their last game two days ago. The Bulls played well, but were too short-handed to beat Memphis. Now Chicago steps way down in class and will be highly focused trying to get the No. 2 seed in the East in what is now a circle-the-wagons game for them following three consecutive losses.

The 76ers haven't won consecutive games since January. I don't see the 76ers ending that streak here. 

Kansas State has been up and down all season. Now the Wildcats realize they need to win this Big 12 Tournament in order to go to the Big Dance.
That's a tough order, but I see the Wildcats being up to the challenge for this first-round matchup. They are 5-3 versus the top seeds and own home victories against Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor.
This isn't a home game, but playing in Kansas City does mean more Kansas State fans than TCU fans. The Horned Frogs have dropped three straight. Their only consistent scoring threat is guard Kyle Anderson.
Kansas State has talent and potential. TCU isn't in good form and doesn't shoot well from the free throw line or from long distance.

I don't see USC, losers of 13 of its past 15, keeping this close. 

The Sun Devils have really come on. They've won five of their last seven and have shown tremendous improvement during the past four weeks. I haven't seen that from the Trojans. 

Arizona State has the versatility and backcourt strength to match up well against the Trojans. I see USC struggling to keep a hot Shaquille McKissic in check. 

The Sun Devils are 5-2 in their last seven games despite shooting just 26.7 percent from 3-point range. I expect the Sun Devils to shoot better than that against the Trojans, who rank 274th in defense giving up 70.4 points per game. 

If the Pistons want to retain any flicker of playoff hope, they must win this game. A six-game losing streak make them a long shot to make the playoffs after they pulled within one game of reaching the eighth spot on Feb. 22.
Maybe flying to the West Coast and not practicing yesterday will help Detroit because the Pistons are a tired team. And tired teams usually don't shoot well. That's been the problem for the Pistons, particularly in their backcourt where Reggie Jackson and Kenavious Caldwell-Pope have been ice cold.
I see the Lakers as being the remedy to Detroit's cold-shooting woes. The Lakers have been torched by other team's guards this month, including giving up 31 points to Monta Ellis at home two nights ago. Ellis entered that matchup shooting less than 28 percent from the floor during his last four games.
The Lakers are an NBA-worst 4-21 since Jan. 11. They've dropped five in a row and are likely to still be missing Nick Young. The Pistons have covered 11 of their last 16 road contests.
Following this matchup, the Pistons play road games against the Warriors, Trail Blazers and hot Jazz. That makes this game their easiest one - and a huge must-win. A loss to such a bad team as the Lakers would be devastating, something Stan Van Gundy is well aware of.

I want LeBron James and Cleveland in this revenge spot against a bogus Western Conference playoff team that is in a bad spot.
Dallas shot a blistering 56.4 percent when it beat Cleveland, 109-90, on the road Jan. 4. James didn't play in that game and Kyrie Irving had to depart in the third quarter with an injury.
Cleveland is healthy now and refreshed having last played on Saturday after playing four games in five days. Dallas got past the Lakers on Sunday night. This is the Mavericks' first game back from three games on the West Coast.
The Mavericks are just 16-14 in their last 30 games and have consistently failed to step up against stronger competition. They are 7-17 ATS versus foes with a winning record.
Dallas doesn't play that well at home either, covering 45 percent of their games at American Airlines Center. Dallas gives up the second-worst percentage of 3-point baskets at home in the league behind only the Knicks. The Cavaliers have stepped up their perimeter attack averaging 31.3 shots from beyond the arc since Jan. 15.
The Cavaliers have three superstars in their prime plus a strong bench and rotation. They are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times going against Western Conference opponents. Dallas isn't nearly at that level. Dirk Nowitzki is past him prime and Rajon Rondo has been a disappointment since coming from Boston.

Tony Parker finally is playing better and the Spurs have picked up their scoring. In their last five games, San Antonio is averaging 111.2 points per game while shooting nearly 48 percent from the floor. Parker is averaging better than 25 points while shooting better than 64 percent from the floor during his last three games.

Toronto is giving up an average of 106.1 points per game during its last eight games. Toronto is slumping, but look for its offense to pick up with point guard Kyle Lowry back to run things. Only four teams score more points per game than the Raptors. 

Valparaiso is the class of the Horizon League. The Crusaders match up well against Green Bay and get to play at home in this Horizon League Tournament game.
The Crusaders set a single season school record for wins with 27 this season. Valparaiso has better offensive and defensive numbers than the Phoenix and are 14-1 at Athletics-Recreation Center, including winning all eight of its conference games there.
Green Bay, by contrast, is 0-5 during the past four season playing at Athletics-Recreation Center, including losing 63-59 there on Feb. 13.
The Phoenix are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Valpo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games versus foes with a winning road mark.  
Green Bay needs to score inside to be effective. The Phoenix are going to have problems getting points in the paint, though. The Crusaders have size and athleticism. One of those athletes is 6-foot-10 center Vashil Fernandez, who averages nearly three blocks a game.

Portland put aside concerns about finishing with four consecutive losses by upsetting Saint Mary's 69-52 this past Saturday in a quarterfinal game of the West Coast Conference Tournament.
BYU, on the other hand, struggled barely getting past Santa Clara, 78-76, in its quarterfinal game on Saturday. It's obvious the Cougars are looking ahead to a likely title match against Gonzaga.
Portland should play with a lot of effort and intensity. The Pilots have nothing to lose and are playing for only the second time in nine days. They catch a huge break in the WCC changing its tournament format. There were no games on Sunday. The tournament, which is being played in Las Vegas, resumes today so it can be televised nationally.
The Cougars are 16-35 (31 percent) ATS the past 51 times they've played on a neutral court. They aren't 100 percent healthy either. senior guard Anson Winder reinjured his upper leg and Corbin Kaufusi rolled an ankle against Santa Clara. 
BYU did beat Portland both times during the regular season, winning by nine in Provo and 82-69 on the road. Portland trailed by just two, though, with 3:21 left in that loss.

Pepperdine has the defense, determination and right situation to throw a scare into Gonzaga.
The Waves are 7-1-1 ATS the last nine times they've played opponents with a winning record. They've played the two top teams in the West Coast Conference - Gonzaga and BYU - very strong in four games going 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS. The Waves swept BYU and lost to the Bulldogs 78-76 at home and 56-48 in Spokane.
This is just Pepperdine's second game in nine days. The Waves catch a break in they won't have fatigue issues because the WCC switched their format giving the teams Sunday off in order to set up a nationally televised doubleheader for Monday.
The tournament is being held in Las Vegas, a neutral site. Gonzaga is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site matchups. The Bulldogs aren't looking to cover a huge margin - just win and move on. They need to conserve energy unlike Pepperdine, which can go all out with nothing to lose being such a heavy underdog.  
Pepperdine showed its determination coming from eight points down in the second half to beat San Diego, 50-47, in the quarterfinals on Saturday. The Waves are holding foes to 61 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting from the field.  
So Gonzaga doesn't figure to get many easy baskets especially if 6-foot-10 forward Kyle Wiltjer can't play or is limited. Wiltjer, the Bulldogs' leading scorer, suffered a hip injury late in the Bulldogs' quarterfinal win against San Francisco this past Saturday.

The record shows New Orleans and Milwaukee each having 29 losses. But know this: New Orleans is better than Milwaukee. And the Bucks playing at home doesn't change that.
The Pelicans are 7-2 in their last nine games. Every game is a must win spot for them as they battle to grab the final playoff position in the much superior Western Conference.
New Orleans is coming off a win against Memphis this past Friday. That was Anthony Davis' third game back from a shoulder injury. He's averaging 30.3 points and 12.3 rebounds since returning. He's a legitimate MVP candidate. Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans are playing at high levels, too.
Trading for point guard Norris Cole to help fill the void of injured point guard Jrue Holiday was a shrewd move by the Pelicans. Cole is a nice complementary player and knows how to win having collected a couple of rings when he was with the Heat.  
The Pelicans have covered seven of the last eight times on the road when going against a foe with a winning home record.
The Bucks were maybe the biggest surprise team of the first half. But opposing teams have caught up to them and the Bucks have gotten worse after trading point guard Brandon Knight and getting turnover-prone, poor shooting Michael Carter-Williams in return.
Since that deal, the Bucks have gone 3-6. Their only victories during this span were against the Nuggets, 76ers and Wizards. This was before Denver made its much needed coaching change and had lost 13 of its past 15. The 76ers are tied for the second-fewest wins in the league. The Wizards are 4-13 in their last 17 games and were without Bradley Beal. The Bucks needed a career-game from Kris Middleton to get past Washington. 
Before swapping point guards, the Bucks had won eight of nine. The young and inexperienced Bucks haven't fully adjusted to Carter-Williams and have lost some of their chemistry and confidence. The Bucks have turned into an undisciplined, out-of-control team playing not to lose instead of being loose.
The Bucks now step up in class to face a legitimate Western Conference playoff contender that is playing well. Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games versus Western Conference opponents.
The Pelicans have a good track record versus Milwaukee winning 14 of the last 16 in the series, including going 6-2 the past eight times in Milwaukee.

The aging Nets made the decision at the trade deadline that they are all in. They didn't deal any of their veterans. They are going for the playoffs and they know they can't afford a home loss to the Jazz.
Yes, Utah is playing tremendous defense. But Brooklyn is decently defensively, too, has a stronger bench with Jarrett Jack, Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young. The Nets also catch the Jazz concluding their four-game, six-day road trip.
This is close to a circle-the-wagons game for the Nets after consecutive home losses to the Hornets this past Wednesday and in overtime to the Suns on Friday in which they blew a 15-point lead with less than six minutes to play. Those were bad home defeats. The Nets are going all-out here and they catch the Jazz with a high fatigue rating.

The timing is right for the Timberwolves to upset the Trail Blazers.
Minnesota has lost four in a row, including all three during its current homestand. This is the Timberwolves' final game at Target Center before heading out for four consecutive road games - all likely losses since they face the Clippers, Suns, Thunder and Spurs.
The Timberwolves are off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Nuggets in their last game. Flip Saunders said it was his team's most disappointing loss in two months. Following an off day and then a day of practice should ensure a fresh and motivated Timberwolves squad for this matchup. Nikola Pekovic and Gary Neal are expected to play.
This will be Portland's first game since finding out that Wesley Matthews is out for the season after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon on Thursday against the Mavericks. Matthews isn't just Portland's third-leading scorer and top 3-point shooter. He brings a strong all-around game and is a steady force having played in 153 straight games. Matthews is an underrated player and his loss is going to be felt. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are the stars, but Matthews has been the unsung glue for Portland.
 The Trail Blazers' weak bench is made worse by the Matthews' injury since it elevates Arron Afflalo into the starting lineup. Afflalo is having a down year so far. That may change since he's now with the Trail Blazers and not the Nuggets. But he's still going through an adjustment period.  
The Timberwolves usually play better defense at home. They also have capable scorers. Rookie Andrew Wiggins is averaging 20.9 points in his last seven games. Minnesota has covered five of the past six times at home.
Portland is in a weird spot and not just because of the shell shock over losing Matthews. The Trail Blazers just hosted the Mavericks on Thursday and blew them out. After this game they fly back to Portland for consecutive home games. So this is an odd situational element and also marks Portland's third game in four days. That's rough on any team especially one with weak reserves.

Purdue is decent offensively, but neither team plays at a fast pace and both have been playing strong defensively lately. I'm expecting an intesense defensive effort as each team is on the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Illinois is averaging just 60.1 points on the road while shooting less than 38 percent from the floor. The Illini, though, is giving up only 58.5 points during its last nine games.

Purdue is holding foes to less than 60 points at home aided by a pair of 7-footers in its lineup. The under has cashed in 35 of Illinois' last 51 road games. Purdue has gone under in 12 of its last 17 games.  

The Irish are off a huge upset win against Louisville. Clemson has more to play for than Notre Dame, which has clinched third place in the ACC. Clemson is looking to go .500 and gain better seeding for the ACC Tournament.
Clemson is not a strong offensive team, but has some capable scorers. Notre Dame lacks shut down defenders. The Tigers are tough defensively holding foes to four points less per game than the Irish.
Clemson nearly beat Notre Dame in its earlier meeting on Feb. 10 losing 60-58. I just don't see Notre Dame covering a double-digit spread against a respectable conference foe without playing its "A" game.

The defending champion Huskies don't have it this season. That was made evident after they suffered a grueling 54-53 home loss to Memphis just two days ago. Memphis won despite not having its leading scorer, Austin Nichols.
That game didn't finish until late Thursday night. Connecticut starters logged 165 floor minutes. Now the demoralized Huskies have this quick turnaround to Philadelphia knowing their only realistic hope of defending their NCAA title is to win the American Athletic Conference tournament. An early start time here certainly doesn't help fatigued Connecticut either.
The Huskies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games. They have lost and failed to cover in five of their last seven conference road matchups falling 30 points below market expectations in these games. The Huskies actually would best be served by not wasting energy because a victory isn't going to improve their NCAA chances. They're going to need to win the AAC Tournament so they should scale back the minutes of their starters in preparation for achieving that long-shot goal. So I'm certainly not expecting to see the Huskies' "A" game here.
Temple needs this game more than Connecticut in terms of trying to land an NCAA Tournament berth. The Owls are 21-9. They have covered eight of their last 11 AAC games. They defeated Connecticut, 57-53, on New Year's Eve on the road in overtime. The setting is much better here for the Owls.
The atmosphere should be highly favorable for Temple. This is the last home game for Will Cummings and Jesse Morgan. The Owls also played two days ago, but their starters logged 35 fewer minutes than Connecticut's starters did on Thursday. Temple not only is the better team but is in better shape for this matchup mentally and physically.

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Now that word has come down that Devin Harris will not play the Mavericks are really hurting at guard. Monta Ellis represents the Mavericks' only backcourt scoring threat. Dallas' backcourt rotation is Ellis, Rajon Rondo, who has not been a good fit for the Mavericks, J.J. Barea, who has a thumb injury, and Raymond Felton. 

Keep in mind, too, the Mavericks also are without Chandler Parsons and that Golden State ranks No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. 

The Mavericks have been playing better defense lately giving up an average of 94.6 points during their last six games. 

Yale has proven worthy on the road going 10-2 versus Ivy League opponents. The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their 11 lined road games this season. Going back ever farther, Yale is 18-6-2 ATS in its past 26 away matchups.
The road team has covered in the last five in this series. Yale shot just 31.3 percent from the field and shot fewer free throws than Harvard during the first meeting this season yet still lost by only two points.

The Cavaliers have been the hottest team during the last six weeks. Record-wise, the Hawks are the best team in the NBA. But based on current form, Cleveland is better than Atlanta right now.
The Hawks aren't quite in the same great form they showed earlier this season although still are plenty good. But with home-court advantage through-out the conference playoffs all but locked up, the Hawks don't have quite the motivation and incentive the Cavaliers do as the Cavaliers are in a dog fight for the second seed in the East.
The Hawks have won the last two meetings in the series, both of which occurred in December. Cleveland is different and better since then as newcomers and supplemental pieces J.R. Smith, Timofey Mozgov and Iman Shumpert have fit in well and upgraded the Cavaliers' defense.
The Hawks have four All-Stars but none of them are as good as LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.

Power ratings-wise, I have Oakland as a double-digit winner here. 

Oakland is 2-0 versus UIC this season winning 81-56 at home on Feb. 22 and also winning 91-77 on the road. 

The Golden Grizzlies are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games and have covered 10 of their past 13 Horizon League games.

Only six teams give up fewer points per game than Wichita State. Southern Illinois gives up 62.1 points per game to rank 57th. So we're definitely talking two excellent defenses here.

That's why we have a low total. But it's not priced low enough. This is the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament where defense dominates. Just look at Thursday's games when 103 and 102 points, respectively, were put up in the two games. 

The two teams met on Feb. 17 and the Shockers won 84-62. So Southern Illinois knows all too well it must slow tempo. Both teams have played three games at neutral sites. The Shockers allowed 56.3 points during those games wjile the Salukis gave up only 53.7 points. 

Utah is nothing special on the road. The Utes are just 6-5 away from home. Washington State has been keeping its last few games close as five points or less has been the winning margin during its past three games.

The Cougars are capable at home owning victories against Stanford and Oregon. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times when hosting an opponent that has a winning road record. 

This is Davidson's second look at VCU and a a huge game for the Wildcats' program being Senior Night and on ESPN. The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games. 

Look for the Wildcats to handle the Rams' presses and take them out of their half-court offense. VCU has lost its last two games falling at Richmond and to Dayton. The Rams shot just 33 percent from the floor combined in those two games.

They clearly miss Briante Weber. Davidson is No. 2 in the country in adjusted turnover ratio. The Wildcats are going to have three players with more than 100 assists on the season. They have excellent ballhandlers that can withstand VCU's presses especially after seeing it before. 

South Carolina is not a good shooting team. The Gamecocks are averaging just 58.2 points during their last five games. If you discount their last game giving up 81 points to Mississippi State, the Gamecocks are averaging 54.8 points during their last 10 games.

Arkansas ranks 9th in the country averaging 79.1 points a game. However, that average shrinks to 71.7 when on the road. If you take away the 101 points the Razorbacks put up on Auburn, the average would be down to 66 points in their other seven SEC road contests. 

South Carolina is strong defensively at home allowing 60.7 points a game. The average combined score in South Carolina conference home games this season has been 126 points. The under has cashed in 13 of South Carolina's last 19 home games. 

Oregon enters this huge rivalry on an 8-1 run, including four consecutive victories. The Ducks have a spot in the NCAA Tournament firmly in mind. Oregon State overachieved for the first half of the season, but its lack of talent, offense and bench has caught up.
The Beavers have lost five of their past six. They were swept by Stanford and California on the road last week outscored by a combined 45 points in the second half.
Oregon has won the last three in this Civil War series, including a 12-point home win this past Jan. 3.
Even respecting Oregon State's 15-1 home mark, I can't see the gassed Beavers keeping up with the Ducks. The Beavers have the lowest-ranked offense in the Pac-12 and fare poorly against the more up-tempo conference teams.
The Beavers have an excellent backcourt, but they have fewer than seven players on their roster with real Division I talent. Their lack of depth has brought down their defensive intensity, which is their key to victory. They just don't have it anymore. Look for Oregon to successfully spread the court on the Beavers while owning the stronger bench and better athletes.

Colorado State 98, Nevada 42. That was the score of the first meeting. It was the largest margin of victory in a Mountain West Conference game. And the Rams did this without having their leading scorer and rebounder, J.J. Avila.
Of course I'm not expecting Colorado State to win this rematch by 56 points even with Avila back. But the Rams should prevail easily by double-digits.  
Colorado State is a bubble team that can't afford a slip up here. The Rams create big match up problems for the Wolf Pack with their four-guard offense and up-tempo style.
The Rams average nearly 73 points per game. Nevada doesn't have the offense to stay with them. The Wolf Pack lost by 32 points to Boise State, by 16 to Utah State at home and by 13 on the road to the Aggies. Those two teams are similar to Colorado State.

Question: Which team has been playing the best defense in the NBA? Go to the head of the class if you answered the Utah Jazz.
The Jazz always had the height, but now the defensive effort and mindset have kicked in. Utah is giving up an average of only 83.2 points per game during its last seven games. That's simply incredible.
Boston scored just 79 points in an embarrassing 31-point loss to Cleveland last night. Brad Stevens called out his team for lack of effort. So I'm expecting an intense Celtics effort here. I'm also expecting a slow pace as the Jazz just played the physical Grizzlies last night.
The under has cashed 10 of the past 14 times the Jazz have been on the road playing a foe with a losing home record. The under also has cashed seven of the last 10 times the Celtics have played following a loss.
 

The Suns are worse than their overall won-lost record. Their players realize they aren't going to make the playoffs after some early season promise so morale and chemistry are down. Phoenix has dropped 10 of its last 13. The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
The Magic have become rejuvenated defensively under interim coach James Borrego. Since Borrego replaced inept Jacque Vaughn nine games ago, the Magic have given up an average of 92 points per game. Not one opponent has reached triple digits against them during this past nine-game span.
Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in is last 11 games and can take advantage of the Suns' 28th-ranked defense and minus 2.2 rebound differential.

This is a lot of points to be taking with a hot Jazz squad especially with such a low over/under total.
Utah is playing its best defense of the season holding its past five foes to an average of 82.8 points per game. The Jazz are 6-2 in their last eight games - and their wins have come against solid opponents. During this span, Utah has defeated the Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Spurs and Bucks.
The Jazz have the height and physical front line to match up to the Grizzlies with Derrick Favors and underrated Rudy Gobert.
Memphis isn't playing well right now. In their last three games, the Grizzlies lost by 12 points to the Kings, lost by 18 to the Clippers who were missing Blake Griffin, and nipped the Timberwolves by four.
The Grizzlies also have a bigger game on deck Wednesday when they play on the road against the Rockets.  

Even if Kyrie Irving plays as expected after missing the last two games with a shoulder strain, I'm backing Boston at this point spread range.
The Celtics are well-coached, have good chemistry and are playing hard the entire game. They won't lack for motivation either just one game out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
Boston has covered 11 of its last 15 road games and is 8-0 ATS the past eight times meeting foes with a winning record.
The Cavaliers are off a frustrating overtime road loss to the Rockets this past Sunday. So LeBron James and Co. might be fired-up here, but they also have a tougher foe on deck Wednesday when they play at Toronto.  

Forget their season record. The Timberwolves are much better now with a healthy roster, except for Nikola Pekovic who is questionable, and the addition of Kevin Garnett.
Garnett is near the end of a great career, but the team's all-time leader in points and rebounds can still inspire and provides much needed leadership and a winner's mentality. Garnett's return to Minnesota also has rejuvenated the fan base. Garnett purchased 1,000 tickets for this game to be given out to fans.
The Timberwolves have the talent to upset the Blake Griffin-less Clippers and they catch LA in a vulnerable scheduling spot. The Clippers are off impressive road victories against the Grizzlies on Friday and Bulls on Sunday. After this game, the Clippers fly back to LA to host Portland on Wednesday in a much more challenging contest for them.
Despite these recent victories, the Clippers still are 6-13 ATS during their past 19 road contests. They also haven't done well when playing on Monday failing to cover seven of the past eight times on that day.
Minnesota has covered its past four home games and in six of its last seven versus Western Conference foes.

This is a stop the pain game for the Raptors, who have beaten the 76ers seven times in a row.

The Raptors are off their most embarrassing loss of the season falling to the Knicks and won't have a better opportunity to end their losing streak even without Kyle Lowery.

The 76ers could be without their current leading scorer, Robert Covington. The 76ers rank at the bottom of most of the major statistical categories, including scoring, and are playing without rest. The Raptors have the depth to take full advantage of that. 

Under Brad Stevens, you can usually count on the Celtics to play scrappy and hard. The Celtics have been playing well covering eight of their last 10, including winning and covering their last three games.
Boston catches Golden State playing its fourth road game in six days and with a game at Brooklyn on deck Monday. The Warriors are just 3-6 ATS during their past nine games.
The Celtics have been getting solid contributions from their latest newcomers Isaiah Thomas, who knows the Warriors well having played in the same division against them with Phoenix and Sacramento, and Jonas Jerebko.
Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley are hard-nosed defenders who will make Stephen Curry work to earn his points.
The Celtics played Golden State tough on the road losing 114-111 in the first meeting on Jan. 25.

The bloom is off Oregon State and I don't see the Beavers getting it back in this road setting.
The Beavers are 1-4 in their last five games. Never a strong offensive team, the Beavers averaged 49.7 points in those four losses. Oregon State can't play on the road either losing and failing to cover in eight of its 10 away matchups, including the last five.
Oregon State's latest road defeat came this past Thursday to Stanford, 75-48. The Cardinal scored 47 second-half points.
Cal is celebrating senior day and has beaten Oregon State four consecutive times at home. The Golden Bears are unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament, but hold matchup edges to go with their home-court advantage against Oregon State.
Aside from Gary Payton II, the Beavers can't match Cal's talent level. Tyrone Wallace is one of the top guards in the nation. He and Jordan Mathews are one of the better guard tandems in the West.
The Golden Bears also can exploit a size advantage. Their up-tempo backcourt can take advantage of Oregon State's depth issues that are made worse by getting worn down this late in the season.

Both teams played last night, which favors the deeper Hawks. 

Miami isn't close to Atlanta's level. It has been more than a month since the Heat even beat an above .500 team. Their last five victories have been against the 76ers, Knicks twice, Magic and Celtics before the Isaiah Thomas trade. 

The teams met twice this season and the Hawks won both times by double-digits. Miami has fared much better on the road than at home where it is 10-16 SU, 8-16-2 ATS. The Hawks, by contrast, have covered 20 of their last 26 road contests. 

The Heat are minus Chris Bosh and have ball-handling problems that the Hawks can exploit. 

I can easily see North Carolina State overlooking Boston College in this ACC sandwich spot. The Wolfpack are off a huge victory against arch-rival North Carolina and have a revenge game on tap against Clemson. That victory at North Carolina just may have put the Wolfpack into the NCAA Tournament and cause a letdown for this matchup against the lowly Eagles.
North Carolina State traditionally struggles at Boston College failing to cover in their last five visits.
Boston College guard Olivier Hanlan has been red-hot. Hanlan leads the ACC in scoring and is averaging 28 points in his last seven games.

Now that the reality of Derrick Rose undergoing his third knee surgery since 2011 and being out for the season has sunk in, look for the Bulls to regroup for this home matchup. The Bulls were slapped by the Hornets, 98-86, at United Center two nights ago in their first game since learning of Rose's injury.
This is what Bulls center Joakim Noah was quoted as saying after the loss to the Hornets: "We've got to play a lot harder.Mentally, I think we were a little bit drained with everything that happened. I just know we have to play a lot harder if we're going to be successful."
The Bulls have covered each of the last six times following a loss. Rose actually wasn't having a strong year - his shooting percentage and minutes played per game were way down from his career marks - and Chicago has good backcourt depth.
Minnesota isn't 100 percent either as rotation players Anthony Bennett and Shabazz Muhammad are out.
The Timberwolves are off an emotional 97-77 home win against the Wizards. That game marked the return of Kevin Garnett, the team's all-time leader in many of their statistics categories. There is a chance the Timberwolves rest the 38-year-old Garnett since the Timberwolves have a home game on Saturday. Minnesota is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a victory.
The Bulls have won six of the past seven times when hosting the Timberwolves. I see the Bulls' intensity being up here while the road Timberwolves have a letdown following Garnett's emotional home return.

Discount Orlando's season statistics. Instead concentrate on how improved the Magic are particularly defensively since James Borrego replaced overmatch Jacque Vaughn as head coach. 

Since Borrego took over, the Magic are giving up just 91.7 points per game. This isn't a kill spot for the Hawks, who have to play on the road against the Heat Saturday night. 

The Magic have been gold on the road covering 64 percent of the time. 

Golden State is not playing at peak efficiency heading into its fourth of six consecutive road games. The Warriors have allowed 107 and 110 points during their last two games beating the Wizards and falling to the Cavaliers last night when LeBron James went off for 42 points.
Toronto doesn't have a star anywhere close to James. Its best scorer is streaky DeMar DeRozan, who is shooting 34 percent in his last three games. The Raptors are struggling themselves averaging 92 points in their last six games.
This is the Raptors' first game back from a four-game road swing so their offense still may be off especially facing a Golden State defense that ranks No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in defensive 3-point percentage.
Both teams are going to be strongly motivated to play intense with tight defense. The Warriors didn't like James embarrassing them last night while the Raptors are on a three-game losing streak.

The road and a weak bench are a combination that will sink the Beavers here. Aside from beating Washington State in early January, Oregon State hasn't won a Pac-12 road game going 1-6. The Beavers have lost their last four away matchups by a combined 70 points!
The Beavers' weak bench figures to get exposed by Stanford, a veteran squad that also can take advantage of the Beavers being without suspended 6-foot-7 forward Victor Robbins.
Oregon State has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games.  
 

The Suns are not a playoff team - and they know it. Their frontcourt is nothing special and their backcourt isn't deep anymore.
Until they beat hopeless Denver last night, the Suns were 1-8 in their last nine games, losing five in a row. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Western Conference matchups.
The Suns lose part of their home-court edge having to play last night in Denver while the Thunder was idle. The Suns come home tired. Oklahoma City has covered in six of its last eight visits to the desert.
The Thunder have covered in their last seven games. They are 4-0 since the All-Star break beating market expectations by 30 points during this span.
No player has had a better February than Russell Westbrook. Serge Ibaka is playing at a high level now, too, and can help Oklahoma City's front line take advantage of the Suns' mediocre inside players. The Suns give up the third-most points in the NBA, have the sixth-lowest rebounding percentage in the league and are undergoing trade-transition trouble with nearly one-third of their roster revamped.

The timing is right to ride the red-hot Cavaliers and fade the Warriors in this matchup. Cleveland is 17-2 in its last 19 games and has won 10 in a row at home. They catch the Warriors in the middle of a six-game road swing and not playing up to their earlier high standards. In their last two games, the Warriors allowed the Pacers to shoot better than 48 percent from the floor and then allowed the Wizards to make 53.2 percent of their field goals this past Tuesday.
Going back even further the Warriors only beat the 76ers by five points, Timberwolves by three and struggling Spurs by 11. Maybe in the end the Warriors prove to be the best team, but right now they are in a down cycle.
The Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for this matchup especially with a revenge factor and being on the road during four of their next five games. Cleveland was missing LeBron James when it lost to Golden State last month and entered that matchup on a three-game losing streak.
The key to beating the Warriors is limiting their fast breaks and defending well against the 3-pointer. The Cavaliers allow less than 10 fast break points at home, which leads the league. The Cavaliers have held their last three opponents to 22 percent from 3-point range.

Minnesota plays better defense at home. If you discount its performance against Atlanta, Minnesota has allowed an average of 98.3 points during its last eight games at Target Center. 

Expect the Timberwolves to pay more attention to defense now that Kevin Garnett has joined them. I see the Timberwolves slowing the pace down in this matchup after Flip Saunders played Andrew Wiggins 41 minutes, Ricky Rubio 41 minutes, Kevin Martin 41 minutes and Nikola Pekovic 34 minutes in a 113-102 loss to Houston this past Monday. 

The Timberwolves have a history of slowing down the pace following an up-tempo game. The under has cashed 13 of the past 18 times after Minnesota scored 100 or more points in its previous game. The Timberwolves also are 5-0 to the under following a double-digit defeat. 

The Wizards don't figure to push things either after a hard-fough game last night against Golden State. The Wizards have been without shooting guard Bradley Beal. His chief replacement - Garrett Temple - is more about defense than offense.

Note, too, that the under has cashed five of the last seven times Washington has played without rest. 

Here's the short answer: South Dakota is playing well and Denver is terrible on the road.
South Dakota has won five of its last six, including its last four. The Coyotes are playing consistent yet still are capable of more. This is what South Dakota coach Craig Smith was quoted as saying following the Coyotes' last game: We are consistently starting to play our best, but I am not sure if we've had our best game. But we've show more consistency in the last two weeks."
South Dakota has the better offense, better athletes and stronger bench. Denver is in real danger if it gets into foul trouble. The Coyotes have a winning record in the Summit League, while Denver is five games below .500 in league play. South Dakota has covered six of the past eight times versus opponents with a losing mark.
South Dakota defeated Denver, 74-69, on the road on Jan. 4. The Coyotes achieved this despite making just 41.8 percent of their shots from the floor while the Pioneers connected on 53.5 percent of their shots from the field. Denver also hit 17 of 20 free throws for 85 percent. The Pioneers are a good free throw shooting team, but not nearly that good. The Pioneers average fewer than 63 points per game.
Denver won its last game, beating Western Illinois on the road. Western Illinois is tied for last in the Summit at 3-11. The Pioneers are 4-13 ATS the past 17 times following a victory. That was just their second road win in 11 away matchups this season. They are 2-8 ATS in their lined road contests this season. The Pioneers have failed to cover the past three times they've been underdogs.


 

The Hawks are back on track after a satisfying road win at Milwaukee. They have had two days to rest and prepare and are back home. Dallas has had problems when stepping up in class. The Mavericks are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times playing a foe with a winning record.

The Mavericks' chemistry has been altered with Rajon Rondo and not in a positive way. Rondo and Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle got into a shouting match during last night's victory against the Raptors. 

Dallas has padded its record against easy foes. The Hawks, though, are 14-3 ATS when playing an opponent with a record above .600.

It's an added plus if Tyson Chandler can't go for the Mavericks after he banged up his hip last night. 

Utah State is playing well winning and covering its past four games. The Aggies rank in the top 20 in 3-point shooting and hold a huge coaching edge with Stew Morrill against David Rice.
This is a short turnaround for the Rebels, who upset New Mexico State on the road this past Saturday. That was just UNLV's second true road victory of the season. Utah State is 18-7-1 during its past 26 home games when taking on a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
The Aggies have a revenge motive, too, after losing in overtime to UNLV earlier this season.