Look I'm not fooled by the Pistons' 23-33 record. They are better than that and have been playing well going 18-10 in their last 28 games, including posting decisive victories against the Bulls and Wizards following All-Star break.
But I'm not sold on the new-look Pistons stepping up in this matchup against a vastly superior opponent that is the hottest team in basketball. The Cavaliers have come together winning 16 of their last 18. During this time, the Cavaliers are shooting a league-best 47.9 percent from the field while averaging 108.6 points.
The Cavaliers have adjusted to their new faces, Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert. They have fit in well supporting  superstars LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.
The Pistons are on their third starting point guard with newcomer Reggie Jackson, who will be making just his second  appearance with Detroit. Jackson likely will be joined in the starting lineup by another Detroit newcomer, Tayshaun Prince. The Cavaliers are the wrong team - at the wrong time - for the Pistons to make these adjustments against.
Cleveland is 7-2 ATS on one day's rest and has covered 11 of the past 15 times following a win.  

You have to go back to mid-December to find the last time the Spurs dropped three in a row. The Spurs are 0-2 out of the All-Star break losing to the Clippers and Warriors. Now, though, they step way down in class.
Utah is off an impressive 92-76 win against Portland this past Friday in its first game following All-Star break. That was the Jazz's second consecutive home victory. They haven't won three in a row at home all season.
The young Jazz are a lottery team and very inconsistent. They are 11-15 at home with a .500 spread record in Salt Lake City.
San Antonio's offense is down this season. Tony Parker has yet to fully get going. But the Spurs still average 97.6 points on the road. The Jazz have lost 30 of the past 34 times when giving up 97 or more points.  
The Spurs have a huge edge in talent with Parker, a still highly effective Tim Duncan at 38 and Kawhi Leonard. They aren't going to lack for motivation either off back-to-back defeats.
When the teams last met on Jan. 18 in San Antonio, the Spurs held the Jazz to their lowest point total in 16 years winning 89-69.  

The last four in this series have gone over the total and this one should, too.
Houston's defense has been going downhill minus Dwight Howard. The Rockets did hold Toronto to 76 points in their last game, but during their previous five games gave up an average of 111.8 points per game.
The Timberwolves are much improved offensively with Ricky Rubio back in sync, Kevin Martin healthy and Andrew Wiggins coming around. Nikola Pekovic can hurt the Rockets down low without Howard patrolling the middle.
Minnesota is averaging two more possessions on the road than at home while going over 56 percent of the time away from Target Center.
The Timberwolves are terrible on defense giving up the second-most points per game and ranking last in defensive field goal percentage. They also are tied for last in 3-point defensive field goal percentage on the road making them highly vulnerable to James Harden. The Rockets rank sixth in the league in scoring while Harden leads the league in scoring.

Xavier has picked up its game. But St. John's is 4-1 in its last five games, beat the Musketeers, 78-70, on the road 10 days ago and is in a good situational spot.
The Red Storm pose matchup problems for Xavier. The Musketeers had trouble keeping up with the athletic Red Storm in transition during their first meeting. St. John's is even faster and better at home where it is averaging 85 points in the past three games while shooting better than 50 percent from 3-point range during this span.
Xavier is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 away games. This is a tough spot, too, for the Musketeers. Xavier is off big wins against Cincinnati - a huge in-state rivalry matchup - and a 73-56 victory against 19th-ranked Butler this past Saturday.
Now the Musketeers have to travel to New York for their third big game in six days. Xavier hasn't won three in a row since early December.

The Hornets got the rust off on Saturday when they lost 110-103 to the hot Thunder at home. That was Charlotte's first game since Feb. 10.
The Hornets had covered five straight times as underdogs until last night. They are contending for a playoff spot, upgraded their backcourt by adding veteran Mo Williams, who played extremely well last night, and rank fifth in fewest points allowed per game.
Charlotte is scrappy, well-coached and usually very good in an underdog role. The Hornets also have covered in seven of their last nine road games.
The Hornets can take advantage of Dallas' soft frontcourt with Al Jefferson and have perhaps their best defensive player back from injury in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Dallas is off a satisfying and much needed victory this past Friday against Houston. Up next for the Mavericks are far more challenging games against Toronto and Atlanta.
The Mavericks are not a strong home club. They are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 home games. Dallas also is likely to be missing Chandler Parsons, who suffered a sprained ankle against the Rockets. Parsons is Dallas' third-leading scorer and top 3-point shooter. His absence will be felt especially with Monta Ellis in a shooting slump making only 35.1 percent of his shots from the floor during the last eight games.  

Washington is just 14-16 in its last 30 games. But there still is a class difference between these two teams. The Pistons are adjusting to their third new starting point guard and Reggie Jackson is no match for John Wall, who is averaging 30 points in his last three games versus Detroit. This is Jackson's first game for the Pistons.
The Wizards are sure to be fired-up after losing by 38 points to the Cavaliers in their first game following the All-Star break. That was their worst home defeat in 40 years.
Washington is just 1-8 against the Raptors, Hawks and Cavaliers. But they have taken care of business versus bad teams in the conference. The Wizards have the rebounding to match up against Detroit and own the stronger backcourt even with Bradley Beal out. Newcomer Ramon Sessions, a solid backup veteran point guard, is more comfortable after seeing his first action for the Wizards against Cleveland.
This is an important game for the Wizards. They are in the midst of playing six games in nine days and have Golden State on deck Tuesday, which is a probable loss.  

.

The Hawks haven't lost three in a row all season. They will, though, if they lose this matchup. I don't see that happening.
Atlanta wasn't playing up to its early high standard right before the All-Star break and then came out of the break getting blasted 105-80 by the Raptors at home.
I see the Hawks hunkering down here, improving their defense and comfortably beating the Bucks. Milwaukee is playing well, but its lineup is different now with Brandon Knight gone. Until Michael Carter-Williams is ready to return from a toe injury - and it won't be here - the Bucks are way below average at point guard.
The Bucks' strength is coaching, versatility and a strong bench. The Hawks have all of those traits, too, plus a far better starting lineup with four All-Stars. The Hawks have won during their last five visits to Bradley Center.
There are several distractions the Bucks face, too. They were active at the trade deadline so adjustments have to be made. Also Larry Sanders was let go ending an on-going saga. Milwaukee was fortunate to draw totally messed-up Denver for its first game following the All-Star break. This is a huge step up in class.  
Atlanta received a wake-up call from the Raptors. The Hawks haven't been playing well - which is a big reason why this line is so low. But I see a full, focused effort from the more talented team. That should result in an easy Hawks cover.

UAB has qualified for the Conference USA Tournament. The Blazers are coming off a huge emotional home victory against Western Kentucky this past Thursday, 71-66. They are a decent, but far from outstanding team.
Marshall has a bad record but has been coming on. The Thundering Herd had won and covered three in a row until suffering an embarrassing 90-51 road loss to Middle Tennessee State this past Thursday where they were outscored 50-7 at one juncture of the second half.  
This is what Marshall coach Dan D'Antoni was quoted as saying following that humiliation: "We've got to be a little more disciplined and a little more tougher minded. I thought when things went bad you could see them kind of drooped. You could see the droop. That was something we did early in the year and don't want that to come back."
I see Marshall, which is still trying to qualify for the Conference USA Tournament, giving a full, all-out effort here and getting good line value due to its blowout loss in its last game. The Thundering Herd are 11-5-1 ATS following a loss. They also are 3-0 ATS this season when off a loss of more than 20 points.
The Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

I'll go with the borderline playoff team from the Western Conference against the borderline playoff team from the much inferior Eastern Conference.
The Pelicans are a .500 club playing in the far more difficult division while Miami is 23-30.
The Heat have been a better road club. They are 9-15 SU at home, 8-15-1 ATS. Miami is 2-8-1 during its past 11 home contests versus opponents with a losing road mark.
This has become a crucial game for the Pelicans after losing last night to the Magic. Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson each returned from injury, but both were rusty against the Magic. They should both be much better today. The Heat have no one near the caliber of Davis.
New Orleans has covered 13 of the past 16 times when playing without rest.  
Dwayne Wade is back for Miami from a hamstring injury, but his minutes may be limited since he played last night. The Heat had an easy time since they played the Knicks, who are now without Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. The Pelicans are several tiers above the Knicks.
Goran Dragic could make his Miami debut here. However, there is going to be an adjustment period for Dragic, Wade and the rest of the team. Chris Bosh remains out and his health concerns must be a team distraction.

Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and has strong revenge motivation. 

The Chippewas were hammered 83-65 by Ball State last month. The Cardinals are 2-11 in conference. That's one of their MAC victories and an embarrassement to Central Michigan.

The Chippewas are the top offensive team in the conference and are hot having won four in a row. They rank 12th in the country in scoring at better than 79 points per game. Ball State ranks 294th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cardinals lack the defensive perimeter game to slow down the Chippewas' strong offense. Plus the Cardinals are worn down with multiple injuries.

The Cardinals have failed to cover in 8 of their last 10 games. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. 

Murray State clearly is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference. Austin Peay sits at the bottom of the West standings. 

The Racers already have captured the league championship and No. 1 seed for the conference tournament. So they have no strong incentive. Austin Peay won't be going to the tournament barring a miracle. This is the Governors' Super Bowl. They only lost by 10 in the first meeting covering the 11 1/2-point spread two weeks ago. Now the line is close to 10 points higher. 

Murray State coach Steve Prohm has a history of pulling his starters once his team reaches a comfortable lead. That leaves the backdoor wide open for Austin Peay. The Governors are a very bad shooting team, but they have outrebounded their opponents and created more turnovers during league play. 

Murray State wins, but doesn't necessarily cover. The Racers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Ohio Valley games. Since Jan. 17, Austin Peay has been an underdog of 7 or more points four times. The Governors have covered each of those games. 

The Governors should be rested and prepared. They've had a week off after their scheduled game for this past Tuesday at Eastern Kentucky was postponed. 

Nobody is saying the Nets are a good team. But despite an awful record, the Nets are just one game out of a playoff spot. Brooklyn can't compete against elite teams, but can be trusted to take care of business against bottom feeders.  
The Lakers are 1-15 in their last 16 games going 3-12-1 ATS. They have dropped six in a row, rank last in defense and are in the midst of more lineup changes. Winning is not paramount with the Lakers. Improving their lottery position is.
Minus Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have no one to push and motivate.  
The week-long All-Star break should prove beneficial to the veteran-laded Nets especially for Joe Johnson and Deron Williams. Brooklyn retained Brook Lopez so it has a scoring advantage inside against the Lakers.
The Nets improved themselves at the All-Streak break trading Kevin Garnett for Thaddeus Young, who is averaging 14.3 points this season and ranked in the top three in steals last season. Young should be available against the Lakers.
The Nets give up nearly seven fewer points per game than the Lakers and their defense is going to be improved with Young's presence. Brooklyn ranks 14th defensively despite not having a player ranked in the top 50 in steals.  
Brooklyn has four more road games on this Western Conference road trip. This is the Nets' easiest matchup. They can't afford not to be ready.

I see the Kings and their fans motivated and energized for the first time in a long period with the coaching switch to George Karl, who makes his Sacramento coaching debut here.
The Kings have a huge frontcourt edge with DeMarcus Cousins, who is averaging a career-high 23.8 points and 12.5 rebounds. The Celtics are further hampered inside with Jared Sullinger out with a foot injury. Sullinger is Boston's leading scorer and rebounder. The Celtics lack size minus Sullinger.
Boston's lacks the frontcourt depth to adequately replace Sullinger. The Celtics' backcourt was upgraded at the trade deadline yesterday with the acquisition of Isaiah Thomas. He is not expected to play tonight. If Thomas does play, it will be an adjustment with all new teammates. The Kings also know their former teammate.   
The Celtics have lost in their last three trips to Sacramento and are 1-4 ATS the past five times playing the Kings on the road.

The Hawks had lost some of their mojo going into All-Star break. They were just 3-3 and off a loss to Boston. The Hawks are one of the few teams that didn't benefit that much from the week long break as four of their players and head coach participated in the All-Star Game.

The Raptors have a history of playing well in their first game back following the All-Star break under Dwane Casey. They beat the Wizards on the road each of the past two years in these instances and three years ago nearly won at Houston despite having a terrible team. 

Toronto is 2-1 versus the Hawks this season. The Raptors have outrebounded the Hawks in each of the games. The Hawks lack a wing man who scares the Raptors. 

The Raptors match up well to the Hawks. They are the more rested team and have a good history in this spot. 

Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint.
The Utes have won their Pac-12 games by an average of 22.8 points per game. They rank No. 1 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Oregon State doesn't have the offensive to stay with the Utes even at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have failed to cover in six of their last seven Pac-12 contests.
The only thing keeping this spread under double-digits is Oregon State's unbeaten home mark. Look for that to get erased in a big way in this matchup, though.

I like Doc Rivers, but no coach is better with extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich.
This, of course, is the first game for both teams since the All-Star break. The Clippers entered the break 3-5 in their last eight games. They are not in great form especially defensively where they have surrendered an average of 110.4 points during their past five games.
San Antonio plays at Golden State on Friday. The Spurs are not going to be favored in that matchup. No way does Popovich want his team losing their first two games following All-Star break.
The Spurs also will be extra motivated by an embarrassing 105-85 home loss to the Clippers during their last meeting on Jan. 31. That was the Clippers' widest margin of victory ever against San Antonio. The star of the game was Blake Griffin, who scored 31 points and pulled down 13 rebounds.
Griffin is expected to be out at least another two weeks after having surgery last week to remove a staph infection from his right elbow.
The Spurs are the better defensive club, giving up four less points per game than the Clippers. San Antonio, though, is averaging 103.9 points per 100 possessions down from 108.2 from last season when they won the championship.
Tony Parker hasn't had a great year. Look for Parker, who had been dealing with a sore hamstring, to be rejuvenated following the long break and up for the challenge of squaring off against fellow star point guard Chris Paul.
The Spurs have a long history of starting to peak following the break. The Spurs have shown signs of coming on winning 13 of their last 17. They are fresh following the All-Star break, are a prideful, extremely well-coached team with revenge and draw the Clippers minus their star inside scorer, Griffin.
All of this should result in the Spurs winning this game by more than a basket.   

UCLA is not the same team on the road. The Bruins are just 3-9 away from Pauley Pavilion. Lack of depth and experience has hurt the Bruins on the road. Arizona is the second-most experienced team in the Pac-12 and has the guard depth to take advantage of UCLA's road woes. 

Arizona State has stepped up its offense averaging just under 75 points in its last eight games. The Sun Devils are the second-highest scoring team in the league and have the best field goal percentage. UCLA ranks ninth in the Pac-12 in points allowed per game. 

UCLA has a look-ahead game this Saturday at seventh-ranked Arizona. The Sun Devils defeated Arizona by three points at home earlier this month.  

Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten.
The Wildcats have had only one bad conference road loss in six trips. They covered at Wisconsin. They beat Rutgers, which defeated Wisconsin at home. The Wildcats also took Michigan State to overtime in East Lansing and lost hard-fought road games to Michigan and Maryland by a combined three points. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road matchups.
Minnesota's defensive weakness is 3-point defense. The Gophers give up 35.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc, ranking them 241st. Northwestern ranks fifth in the Big Ten in 3-point shooting at 35.8 percent.
The Gophers were blown out in their last game by Indiana, which leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting. Prior to that game, the Gophers had won three in a row beating Iowa, Purdue and Nebraska. The Hawkeyes ranked ninth in the league in 3-point shooting while the Boilermakers were 12th and Cornhuskers 14th.
Before meeting Indiana, the Gophers had played just one of the Big Ten's top five 3-point shooting teams and that was Maryland. The Terrapins made eight 3-pointers in beating the Gophers, 70-58, at home. Northwestern lost to the Terrapins by one point on the road.  
Minnesota has failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 Big Ten games. Its last two meetings against Northwestern have been decided by a combined seven points.

Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions.
Michigan State is off its best week of the season blowing out Northwestern on the road and defeating then 23rd-ranked Ohio State this past Saturday. This is the time where Tom Izzo has his Spartans starting to peak. I don't see them taking a step back against a banged-up and demoralized Michigan squad that has lost three overtime contests during its past six games.
Michigan has lost five of its past six, including its last four. The Wolverines have a short bench and are minus their best players as Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert remain out. Their perimeter game really is hurting without those two.
The Wolverines are averaging 57 points during regulation in their last three games. Michigan State ranks 54th defensively giving up 61.2 points. I don't see the Wolverines putting up enough points to get the cover.  
Note, too, that Michigan has failed to cover in nine of its last 13 home games.

Notre Dame is rested and prepared to blow out Wake Forest. The Irish last played a week ago. They had not been playing well during their last four games - losing at Pittsburgh, only beating ACC-worst Boston College by eight in their last home game on Feb. 4, getting blown out by 30 to Duke and nipping Clemson by two.
Look for the Irish to be rejuvenated following a welcome seven days of rest and practice.
Wake Forest nearly upset third-ranked Virginia this past Saturday, losing 61-60. The Demon Deacons meet the Cavaliers in their next game. I don't see the Demon Deacons, 4-9 in the ACC, stepping up in consecutive games.
Notre Dame has too much offense for Wake Forest ranking 14th in the country in scoring at 79.2 points per game. The Irish lost twice to Wake Forest last season so double revenge is added motivation.
Notre Dame isn't in action again until Saturday when it plays Boston College so a fully focused effort should be ensured.

The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road.
But there is far more behind the records that indicate the underdog Panthers are the right play in this matchup.
Pitt is playing its finest ball. In their last five games, the Panthers have gone 4-1 with their only loss during this span coming to Louisville in which they led by six with 12 minutes left. Pittsburgh has knocked off Syracuse, Notre Dame and North Carolina by 13 points in its last game during this span.
The Panthers aren't going to lack for motivation even coming off the huge win against the Tar Heels just two days ago. That's because they likely need a win - or at least to play a close game - to impress the NCAA Tournament committee that they are capable of playing well on the road since they lack quality road victories.  
This is what Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon was quoted as saying about his team, "You're seeing guys improve. They're playing with a lot of confidence. We're getting better at the right time."
Virginia is not the same since losing forward Justin Anderson, its best player and defender. He's missed the past two games with a broken finger and remains out. Since Anderson was lost, the Cavaliers beat North Carolina State, 51-47, as a 7-point road favorite and nipped Wake Forest, 61-60, at home as an 18-point favorite this past Saturday. The Demon Deacons had the ball at the end with a chance to win.
Virginia was 3-of-23 from 3-point range in those two games. Anderson is by far the Cavaliers' best 3-point shooter. North Carolina State and Wake Forest are a combined 10-16 in ACC games.
The Panthers played the Cavaliers tough during their two meetings last season losing 48-45 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer and falling 51-48 in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The Panthers shot a combined 34.4 percent from the floor in those two games and still lost each time by just three points.
No, the Panthers aren't going to shoot 64.9 percent from the floor and score 89 points like they did versus North Carolina two days ago. But they are more than capable of keeping this far closer than this spread indicates especially with Anderson out for the Cavaliers.

Cal has turned things around winning five in a row. The Golden Bears are 5-2 in true road games. They've won their past three away games while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road contests.  
Utah, of course, is very strong. But this is just too many points. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering five of the past seven times.
The Utes are very good, especially at home. There's no denying that. But they've been fortunate to catch their road opponents either in a rut or with injuries. That's not the case with Cal, which comes in with a lot of momentum.
The Golden Bears are one of the stronger defensive teams in the Pac-12 and have an excellent guard in Tyrone Wallace and a top 3-point shooter in Jordan Mathews, who has made at least three 3-pointers in four of his last five games.
The Bears are a scrappy and physical team. KenPom ranks the Bears as the eighth-best defensive rebounding team in the country.  

This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season.
Wisconsin is outstanding, obviously capable of winning the NCAA championship. So this isn't a fade on the Badgers. It's just a strong belief that Illinois can keep this close. The Illini have reached a high point in their season with four straight victories pushing their record to 17-8.
Illinois is capable owning victories against Baylor and Maryland, two teams that rank in the top 15 in the RPI standings. The Illini also have senior guard and leading scorer Rayvonte Rice back. He had missed nine games with a broken hand and team suspension, but got some rust off against Michigan in the Illini's last game. Rice averaged 21.5 points in two meetings against the Badgers last season.

Nevada will be going all out at home off their worst defensive effort of the season and having dropped their last four at Lawlor Events Center. In three of their last four home losses, the Wolf Pack lost by a combined 10 points to UNLV, San Diego State and Fresno State.
Expect another close game here. New Mexico is a .500 Mountain West team that lacks enough offense to cover this large of a road number against what should be a fired-up Wolf Pack squad desperate to give their home fans a victory.
The Lobos aren't playing well dropping five of their last six. Their only victory during this span was against last-place San Jose State, who is 2-21 on the season and in total disarray.

Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though.
Oregon State is hungry to establish its credibility away from Corvallis. It desperately needs a road win and the timing is right here. USC is really struggling. The Trojans last won on Jan. 7. They've lost nine in a row and are likely to be without point guard Jordan McLaughlin, who injured his surgically repaired left shoulder during USC's 80-75 home loss to Oregon this past Wednesday.
McLaughlin, the Trojans' team leader in assists, steals and minutes played, is difficult to replace. USC is thin and weak shooting in the backcourt. Making matters worse for the Trojans is Oregon State has one of the best defensive backcourts in the country. Gary Payton II has 70 steals and is one of the top all-around guards in the country. He has at least one steal in 24 straight games.
USC has covered just 31 percent of its last 62 home games. Oregon State has beaten USC eight of the past 11 times and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times against foes with a losing mark.

Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0.
I want Valpo going for me at home and in a revenge spot. The Crusaders lost 51-50 on the road to Green Bay on Jan. 23. Valpo fell by one point on the road to the Phoenix despite shooting less than 35 percent from the floor and missing 16 consecutive shots in the second half.
Look for the Crusaders to be far more in sync at home where they are 11-1 on the season. Since that loss to Green Bay, the Crusaders have won four in a row. The Phoenix, on the other hand, have failed to cover in four of their last five Horizon League games.
Green Bay's senior point guard Keifer Sykes might be the best player in the Horizon League. But Valpo has the more balanced lineup and a star, too, in Alec Peters. He's averaging 17.3 points and is on pace to become the first sophomore in program history to score 1,000 points in a season for the Crusaders. Valpo hasn't lost all season when Peters reaches double figures.

Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games.
Randle leads the Pac-12 in scoring and made 7 of 10 shots from 3-point range when the Cardinal beat Utah, 61-60, in last season's regular-season finale.
Stanford is doing a great job getting to the free throw line shooting 26 more free throws than its opponents during the past six games.
The Cardinal have lost their four Pac-12 games by an average of five points. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times facing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

Oregon is coming on while USC has dropped eight in a row done in by inexperience and lack of offense.
The Trojans rank last in the Pac-12 in offensive efficiency. They have covered only 32 percent of their last 61 home games. Nikola Jovanovic is USC's leading scorer at 12.7 points per game. He's missed 14 of 21 shots from the floor during the last three games.
Oregon ranks 20th in the nation in scoring at 77.2 points per game. Then Ducks have the Pac-12's leading scorer in Joseph Young and gets back from suspension Jordan Bell, who leads the Ducks in rebounding and is the seventh-leading shot-blocker in the country.
The Ducks have been red-hot from the free throw line, too, hitting 84 percent in their last six games. They also have defeated USC nine consecutive times.

The Spurs shouldn't lack motivation as they have revenge for a blown 18-point lead in a 105-104 home loss to the Pistons last month.
San Antonio was missing Kawhi Leonard in that game and Tony Parker missed the second half. The Spurs are healthy now.
Detroit has failed to cover in 21 of its last 30 home games. The Pistons are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 home contests versus foes with a winning road mark.
The Pistons are fat and happy heading into break having defeated the Hornets on the road last night in big fashion. The Pistons have a huge backcourt disadvantage minus Brandon Jennings, who scored the winning basket in their earlier victory against San Antonio.  

Xavier is ranked 34th in the NCAA Daily RPI while Marquette rates 114th. The 15-9 Musketeers clearly are the superior team probably around a ninth seed if the NCAA Tournament were being seeded right now. Marquette has a losing record.
The key here is how Xavier will play on the road. In two of the Musketeers' last three road games they had good performances upsetting Georgetown and losing in overtime to Providence. Marquette has failed to cover in its last four home contests.
The Golden Eagles are a big effort team, but they could start to wear down with just seven scholarship players as life in the physical Big East takes a toll this late in the season. Marquette has a short bench and could be without leading scorer, senior guard Matt Carlino. He suffered a concussion six days ago against Villanova and missed the Golden Eagles' last game.
Carlino scored 27 points in the team's first meeting won by Xavier, 62-58. The Musketeers struggled with Marquette's pressure defense in that game scoring only 22 points in the first half. Look for Xavier to be better prepared now that they've faced the Golden Eagles and with something to prove being on the road. The Musketeers are riding a wave of confidence after a 78-69 win over  Providence this past Saturday.
Marquette also is coming off a win, a road victory against Seton Hall on Saturday. Prior to that, however, the Golden Eagles had dropped six in a row.   

 

The Nets are an old, veteran team composed of one-time stars past their primes. They are vulnerable to athletic, deep teams.
Memphis isn't especially athletic, nor does it have a deep bench. The Grizzlies' strength is rebounding and physical play. They are much more of an Eastern Conference team than a racehorse Western Conference opponent. Brooklyn has defeated Memphis in two of its past three meetings.  
The Nets can hang with them matchup-wise and won't lack for motivation. The veteran Nets have a lot of prideful players. This is their last game before All-Star break. The Nets are battling for a playoff spot and also some of their veterans - Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson come quickly to mind - are playing for their futures. There are trade rumors swirling around them. So a strong effort should be forthcoming.
The Grizzlies aren't looking to cover a double-digit margin. They have a more important game and tougher opponent on deck Wednesday when they play the Thunder in Oklahoma City.
 

This marks the Clippers' final game of their eight-game road trip that started Jan. 28. The trip has turned into a disaster with Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick out. The Clippers have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They have a high fatigue rating here.
But they also are catching far too many points here in a step-up spot against an overrated foe that is 3-11 against the Western Conference's seven other teams in playoff position.
Dallas is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games versus Western Conference foes and has covered just 40 percent of its home games this season.
The Clippers have been hurt on the boards, outrebounded by 46 during their last three games. The Mavericks are not a good rebounding team, though, and will have trouble dealing with DeAndre Jordan, who has averaged 16.4 points and 15.2 rebounds in his last five games versus the Mavericks.

The won-lost records show Toronto better than San Antonio at 34-17 compared to the Spurs' 32-18. But make no mistake, there is a class difference between these two clubs.
The Spurs are far superior to the Raptors. The defending world champions finally appear healthy now for the first time.
This is the opening game of the Spurs' annual rodeo road swing - nine consecutive away matchups. San Antonio just concluded a 5-1 homestand and has won nine of its last 11. The Spurs won't be home again until March 4. They certainly want to start their trip out right.  
The Spurs are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS this season when beginning a road trip of two or more games. No coach is more dangerous with a day of extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich. The Spurs have added incentive here, too, because their next victory would give Popovich his 1,000th win. Popovich is not the type of guy who wants that distraction and hoopla to linger with his team. The Spurs want to achieve that milestone for Popovich as soon as possible.
Toronto took advantage of a tired Clippers squad to post a 123-107 win two days ago. Prior to that, however, the Raptors lost games to the Bucks and Nets, two borderline playoff teams in the much weaker Eastern Conference.
The Raptors have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games and are 3-12-1 ATS on one days rest. They also are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games when facing a foe with a winning road mark.
San Antonio not only has a winning road record - straight-up and ATS - but has won seven in a row versus the Raptors, including the past four in Toronto. The Spurs are far better than the Raptors on one day rest covering 23 of the past 34 times during those instances.

Oregon State is 13-0 at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers are like night and day when they are home compared to the road.
The Beavers have revenge and Washington has lost its best big people. The Huskies aren't nearly as good or dangerous minus Robert Upshaw, who was leading the nation in blocked shots, and Jernard Jarreau.
Washington still has an excellent point guard, Nigel Williams-Gross. But he faces tremendous backcourt pressure from the Beavers. Williams-Gross also is facing a fatigue issue having played the entire game during four of the past five games.
The Huskies have a losing road mark, both SU and ATS. Oregon State is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times hosting an opponent with a losing road mark.
Washington shot a season-best 56.6 percent from the floor in its last game this past Wednesday at Oregon. Yet the Huskies still lost by four points. They aren't going to shoot that well in this matchup. Oregon State limits foes to an average of 56.6 points a game and ranks sixth in the country in defensive field goal percentage.  

The Bulls have the better talent especially with Jrue Holiday out for New Orleans. The Bulls have been idle for two days and are seeking to halt a three-game losing streak. They have not lost four in a row all season.
New Orleans is coming off a dramatic 116-113 road win at Oklahoma City last night when Anthony Davis made a 3-pointer as time expired. Davis is a monster, but the Bulls can slow him down with Joakim Noah, one of the top defensive players - if not the best - in the league.
The Pelicans used up a lot of energy in upsetting the Thunder last night. This will be their third game in four days. They lost to the Bulls in Chicago, 107-100, when they had Holiday back on Dec. 27.
The Bulls are 17-9 on the road. That's the best away mark in the Eastern Conference.
Chicago is 8-16 ATS at home, but owns a winning road ATS mark. The Bulls have defeated New Orleans 10 of the last 13 times while covering five of the past six times in New Orleans.

VCU managed to cover against George Mason this past Wednesday, 72-60, in a game that was closer than the final score. The Rams won that game despite missing point guard Briante Weber, lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in a 64-55 loss to Richmond on Jan. 31.
But I don't see the Rams covering here especially if leading scorer Treveon Graham is out, too. VCU leads the Atlantic 10, but is vulnerable especially in this road matchup. Graham suffered a high ankle sprain in the victory against George Mason. Even if he manages to play he'll be limited. Weber's loss is huge. He was leading the country in steals per game and had a tremendous assist-to-turnover ratio.
St. Bonaventure is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games versus foes with a winning road mark. The Bonnies are coming off a dramatic 62-61 road win against Davidson on a basket by Marcus Posley at the buzzer this past Wednesday. Posley leads the Bonnies in scoring at 17.4 points a game and is hitting 36.6 percent from 3-point range. The Bonnies have a good inside-outside game with 7-foot center Youssou Ndoye and Posley. The Bonnies have covered five of their last six games.  

Matchup-wise Orlando is the more talented team. They have the best frontcourt player in Nikola Vucevic and a huge backcourt advantage.
Throw in a huge situational spot for the Magic and it's worth laying this number.
The Magic are desperate to end their 10-game losing streak and five-game home losing skid. Orlando is better than its 15-37 record with Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and Elfrid Payton. The Lakers can't match that young talent.
On Thursday, the Magic addressed their underachieving ways by firing coach Jacque Vaughn and his young assistant coaches. A coaching change usually brings short term positive results especially one needed as much as this.
Interim coach James Borrego, who is 37, will be anxious to prove himself now that he has a chance. It's probably not a coincidence the Magic made the coaching move right before playing the Lakers, who have lost eight in a row on the road and 11 of their past 12 overall games. The Lakers' morale can't be too good after blowing a late six-point lead in regulation during their last game falling in overtime to the Bucks on the road. That loss had to sting Lakers coach Bryon Scott, who doesn't like Bucks coach Jason Kidd. The feud stems from when Scott coached Kidd when they were with the Nets.  
Orlando has added incentive because the Lakers blew them out earlier this season. The Lakers likely won't be nearly as motivated coming off the matchup versus Kidd's Bucks and with a national TV game coming up next against LeBron James and the Cavaliers on Sunday.
The Magic have been competitive in their last two games against far superior competition going against the Thunder and Spurs on the road. They lost to both of these teams by seven points, covering each game. Now they drop down in class to face the bottom-five Lakers.
 

Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow.
The Beavers are last in the Pac-12 in scoring at 54.6 points per game and last in offensive efficiency. Their point total goes down to 45.6 a game if you factor just Pac-12 matchups.
They have just a seven man rotation, which is starting to wear thin. None of their top seven players are shooting 50 percent.
Washington State is playing better defense, does a good job of getting to the free throw line, has two excellent key players and is off a confidence-building 89-88 win against Stanford this past Saturday that halted a four-game losing streak.
The Cougars' 6-foot-10 forward Josh Hawkinson is one of only two players in the conference to average a double-double scoring 15.1 points per game and a Pac-12-best 10.8 rebounds. Senior guard Davonte Lacy averages 17.7 points per game and has scored 49 points in his last two games.
 

Look for both offenses to be rusty as the Bulls last played on Friday while the Rockets have been idle since Saturday. That's too long of a layoff for this time of the season when teams are in the rhythm of playing at least every other day. These non-conference opponents are familiar with each other, too, having met last month.
Joakim Noah is in the argument for best defensive player in the league and he's back for Chicago. The Rockets will be missing Dwight Howard, which hurts defensively but also offensively.
The Rockets have gone under in 17 of their last 24 home contests while the under has cashed in 11 of Chicago's last 13 road games versus winning teams.

Fortunate to be in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers remain in the playoff hunt. They have double revenge motivation and catch the Pistons without rest off a big home win against Miami last night.

The Pacers have had a ton of injuries, but point guard George Hill is back and his minutes are increasing. That's a key.

I don't like the Pistons' situation at point guard with Brandon Jennings out for the season. Journeyman D.J. Augustine isn't going to be that effective in a back-to-back situation and he has nothing proven behind him.

Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. 

Georgia Tech's record is misleading. The Yellow Jackets have lost seven ACC games by seven points or less, including falling to North Carolina State by one point in overtime on a 3-pointer at the buzzer in their last game. In their previous game, they upset Miami on the road winning by 20 points.

Georgia Tech is a proven road commodity covering 12 of its last 16 away matchups. Duke is just 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 ACC games. 

The Trail Blazers are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games and have lost three in a row. This skid is not deceiving. The Trail Blazers are not playing well.
It's too big a leap of faith to believe the Trail Blazers can just turn it on here and bury the Jazz.
Utah is 6-6 in its last 12 road games. The Jazz have covered 10 of their last 14 road contests. They are loose, feel no pressure and are off a confidence-building 110-100 home victory over powerful Golden State. That game was back on Friday so the Jazz have had plenty of time to come down from that high while preparing for this matchup. The Jazz have had good point spread success in Portland covering seven of the past 10 times there.
Portland is down two big men with Robin Lopez and to a much lesser extent Joel Freeland both being out. The Jazz have a physical, tall front line that's helped them post nearly a plus nine rebounding margin per game during the last five games.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are Portland's two best players. The team has a weak bench. Aldridge is holding up so far, but the heavy minutes he's been playing have caught up to Lillard as we near All-Star break. The point guard is shooting just 33 percent from the floor during the last 10 games.
This is Portland's first home game since Jan. 24. The Trail Blazers have a bigger game on deck hosting Phoenix Thursday. Utah has been idle since Friday so it's a good spot, too, for the Jazz.  

 

Virginia Tech has gone under in 20 of its last 28 ACC games. Look for that trend to continue here. 

Syracuse is really going to be stressing defense after giving up 93 points to North Carolina in its last game. The Orangemen give up just 56.4 points per game at home. They have always had a top zone defense under Jim Boeheim and outside shooting is not a strength of Virginia Tech. The Hokies averaged 61.4 points on the road and have averaged under 60 points in regulation during their last six overall games. 

The Heat are much better on the road where they have a winning straight-up record and 14-9-1 ATS mark.
Detroit isn't the same without point guard and catalyst Brandon Jennings. The Pistons are 1-4 in their last five games.
The Heat are much improved inside thanks to Hassan Whiteside. Dwayne Wade remains out, but Chris Bosh is playing and Luol Deng could return.
Miami has won nine of the past 10 times when visiting Detroit.

The guard-oriented, finesse Suns are not a good matchup against the physical, rugged Grizzlies, who are playing their finest defense of the season.
Phoenix has lost six in a row to Memphis, including twice this season by an average of 11.5 points although one game did go into overtime.
The Grizzlies have won 10 of their last 11, including six straight. They are giving up only 82.6 points per game during their last six games. In their last two games, the Grizzlies held Oklahoma City to 74 points and Denver to 69.
Phoenix only managed 87 points against Golden State in its last game this past Saturday at home during a 19-point loss. The Warriors rank No. 1 defensively. Memphis is No. 2 defensively.
The Grizzlies are a solid 14-7 on the road with a winning away spread mark. The Suns are just a .500 team versus the spread at home.

Green Bay is coming off just its fifth loss of the season falling at Cleveland State this past Saturday. The Phoenix have won and covered in the game following their previous four defeats. They have a strong historical trend in this direction covering 68 percent of the time during the past 59 instances.
The Phoenix are the superior team and much healthier. They rolled past Wright State, 79-55, in their first meeting on Jan. 5.
The Raiders are a .500 team with injuries. Among the players they will be missing are forward JT Yoho, their leading scorer and rebounder. Also out is senior guard Kendall Griffin, who suffered a concussion in the Raiders' last game, an overtime loss at Oakland this past Wednesday.
Wright State is 1-4 in its last five games, including losses to Cleveland State and Valparaiso in its last two home contests.  

While the Celtics are in rebuild mode again this season having dealt Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, the Heat are fighting for a playoff spot and consider this a crucial game as they begin a four-game road trip.
Miami is a miserable 8-15 at home, but 12-11 on the road. The Heat have covered 59 percent of their away matchups. Boston is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when hosting an opponent with a winning road mark.
The Celtics are five games under .500 at home. Their home attendance may be down for this matchup with the Patriots playing in the Super Bowl later in the day. Miami has covered nine of the last 10 times versus foes with a losing home mark. Boston has lost five of its past six home games, including the last three.
The Heat buried the Celtics, 100-84, at home when they last met on Dec. 21. What's significant about that is the Heat won by 16 despite not having Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside.
Whiteside has emerged has an inside force ranking in the top 10 in rebounding and leading the league in blocked shots since Jan. 11. He's averaging 17.7 rebounds and 15.3 points during his last three games. Boston is a below average rebounding team without a starter taller than 6-foot-9.
Wade is out again, but Bosh and Whiteside will play. So could Luol Deng, who has missed the last two games with a calf injury.

It's easy to see a lot of points being scored by these two teams. But the oddsmaker opened this game much too high considering the circumstances.
Golden State ranks No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 3 in defensive 3-point percentage. The Suns are a guard-oriented perimeter team. This is their first road game since Jan. 13.
The Warriors are trying to keep from losing three in a row for the first time this season. They gave up 110 points to Utah last night in an embarrassing performance. Their intensity level should be sky-high for this home matchup. The Warriors had to play up-tempo in an effort to rally against the Jazz. So their game pace is likely to be slower here especially knowing the Suns like to run.
Phoenix is off a physical 99-93 home win against the Bulls last night so its running capability may be down a notch, too.  
 

No team is giving up fewer points per game this month than Charlotte at 89.8. The Nuggets have been in a scoring slump averaging 93.1 points during their past seven games. Brian Shaw still can't seem to figure out the right rotation. Denver has lost eight of its past nine. 

Al Jefferson is getting better each game since his return from injury. This will be his sixth game back since being out with a groin injury. Jefferson had 22 points when the Hornets beat the Nuggets, 110-82, at home last month. 

The Pistons have yet to win in three games since losing point guard Brandon Jennings for the season. Detroit just has journeyman D.J. Augustin and rookie Spencer Dinwiddie as their only point guards now. 

The Pistons only scored 69 points against the 76ers this past Wednesday in their last game. The Rockets have won four in a row. They beat Boston on the road last night by six points despite James Harden missing 17 of 21 shots from the floor. 

The Rockets have won the last seven in this series. The return of Terrence Jones reduces the loss of Dwight Howard. 

Since they met in the playoffs last season, the Raptors have remained good while the Nets have sunk to the point where they would miss the postseason if the playoffs began now.
But this might work to Brooklyn's advantage in this matchup because now Toronto has a much bigger game on Saturday when it takes on the Wizards.
This is a circle-the-wagons game for Brooklyn, losers of 11 of its last 13 and six straight at home. The Nets should be highly motivated and rested as this marks just their second game in a week due to Monday's home game postponement against Portland.
The extra rest has given the Nets some extra pep in their step and helped reduce some of the tendinitis in Joe Johnson's knee, which has slowed him down. Deron Williams won't be ready to return to the court yet, but Jarrett Jack has been playing well in his absence.
The Nets do play respectable defense ranking 13th. They've held 28 opponents under 100 points. Brooklyn also has won four of its five home contests versus the Raptors.
The Raptors are playing for the third time in four nights - all in different cities. They need to cut back the minutes of some of their key players here with Washington on deck tomorrow night.  
 

Dwight Howard isn't going to play, but the Celtics have a weak front line and the spread isn't as high as it would be if Howard were playing. 

The Celtics have dropped 10 of their last 15. They just aren't a very good team as they keep getting rid of their best players in an effort to rebuild. They also are banged up in the backcourt as neither Avery Bradley nor Evan Turner is 100 percent. 

This is a difficult schedule spot for Boston. The Celtics just got through playing six consecutive road games that took them to the Pacific Time Zone then Mountain Time Zone and then back to West Coast time. Now they're playing on Eastern time. 

Houston has recovered from its recent losses to Golden State to post three straight victories and covers beating the Suns, Lakers and Mavericks. Getting underrated Terrence Jones back helps reduce the loss of Howard. 

The Rockets have covered 11 of the past 12 times when playing a below .500 opponent and have covered 10 of the last 13 times in Boston.

Utah has too much talent, height, balance and depth for UCLA. The Utes clobbered the Bruins by 32 points earlier this month and I can't see the banged-up Bruins regrouping enough, even at home, to keep from losing by less than double-digits.
UCLA is 3-7 in its last 10 games and coming back from an 0-2 trip to Oregon where it lost by a combined 29 points to the Beavers and Ducks.
Ill health is hurting the Bruins. Senior guard Norman Powell has been playing with various aliments and missed practice on Tuesday. Junior center Tony Parker has missed the last two games due to back spasms and may not play. The Bruins have one of the thinnest benches in the Pac-12.
Utah has a physical, intimidating front line aided by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl, who ranks eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding. The Utes have lost only three times with two of those defeats occurring to top-10 teams.
Utah doesn't beat itself and has impressive trends to back it up such as being 39-16-1 ATS in its last 56 Pac-12 games and 45-19-3 ATS in its last 67 games versus an opponent with a winning record.

Colorado is a bad road team, has injuries and USC is playing better than it record shows.
The Buffaloes have yet to win on the road this season in six games. Colorado is without leading rebounder Josh Scott, who did not make the trip to Los Angeles because of back spasms, and third-leading scorer Xavier Johnson is dealing with an ankle injury. Those are two of Colorado's three best players. Johnson has missed the last three games and missed practice on Tuesday.
The Trojans have dropped four in a row, but have only played one bad half during their last five games. Three of their defeats were by a total of 14 points. The Trojans lost to Stanford by two. They were tied with Oregon with under six minutes left and lost by four to Oregon State this past Saturday. Those three teams are a combined 42-16, including 14-7 in the Pac-12.  
So I see a lot of growth and improvement from USC that hasn't shown up yet on the won-lost record. Sources tell me the Trojans have had great practices this week. This is the game where the Trojans get over the hump being home against a crippled Colorado team that has dropped four of its last five.

Both of these teams are in rebuilding mode. The Bucks have made bigger strides this season under Jason Kidd and own the stronger bench, but Orlando has the better talent with Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and an improving rookie point guard in Elfrid Payton.
Even though Miami and Orlando are way down this season, it's still not that easy to do the Florida two-step and beat the Heat and Magic in consecutive road games, which is what the Bucks are trying to do.
The Magic have absolutely owned Milwaukee in Orlando winning the past 17 times! The last time the Bucks won in Orlando was 2004. That sustained kind of history can't be discounted. The Magic usually give the Bucks problems covering in nine of the last 12 meetings.  
Orlando has dropped 12 of its last 14. The Magic players and coach Jacque Vaughn believe their team is very close to turning things around. Orlando has been idle since Monday. Milwaukee is playing its third consecutive road game and is minus Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders in the middle.
The Magic's next three games are against Western Conference foes the Mavericks, Spurs and Thunder. That's likely three more losses. This is the matchup they want. So they should be well prepared and motivated.

Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season.
But the Beavers are in a tough spot here - and the oddsmaker knows it with this spread. I want Arizona State going for me here, though, so I will lay this many points.
Oregon State is 12-0 at home, but has a losing straight-up and spread record on the road.
Arizona State is just 10-10, but 9-2 at home. The Sun Devils have played five of their first seven Pac-12 games on the road. Going back to last season, the Sun Devils have won 17 of their past 19 home contests.
This is a key matchup for the Sun Devils and I expect them to be going all out. They were out-hustled by the Beavers when they played in Corvallis 20 days ago losing 55-47. Arizona State played with great defensive intensity in a 79-44 road victory against California two games ago, However, that intensity deserted the Sun Devils in their last game, an embarrassing 89-70 road defeat to Stanford this past Saturday.
Now the Sun Devils are home for three consecutive games. Arizona State's offense has gotten better since meeting Oregon State. The Sun Devils are averaging 75.6 points in their last three games. Arizona State has reduced its turnovers during this span, a key against Oregon State's tenacious defensive backcourt headed by Gary Payton II. The Sun Devils lost Kodi Justice for the season in their loss to Stanford, but have backcourt depth and Oregon State's pressure is lessened when on the road.
Arizona State ranks 52nd in the country in 3-point shooting. The Sun Devils don't figure to miss 17 of 21 shots from 3-point range like they did in the first meeting against Oregon State.  

The Heat have been playing tremendous defense, are home and have double-revenge motivation going here.
Miami has held nine of its last 10 foes under 100 points, including the past five. The Heat are off an impressive and confidence-boosting 96-84 road win against the Bulls two days ago.
While Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games, Milwaukee has dropped three of its last four and is playing for the third time in four days. The Bucks have won both meetings against Miami this season.
The Heat, though, have found a center now - Hassan Whiteside. He scored 14 points, pulled down 13 rebounds and blocked a franchise-record 12 shots against the Bulls. The Heat are healthy with Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng all in the lineup, now fortified with the emerging Whiteside, who has averaged 12.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and four blocks in his last nine games. Sparked by Whiteside, the Hat have held 10 of their last 12 foes below their season scoring average.
The Bucks can't counter this star power and are without their best shot-blocker, suspended Larry Sanders.  

The Pacers rank No. 3 in scoring defense, are highly motivated to end their seven-game losing streak and have back starting point guard George Hill. 

Orlando is playing more up-tempo. This has resulted in better offensive production but it has been at the cost of defense. The Magic are surrendering an average of 118.5 points during their last four games, all losses. Orlando has yielded triple digits in each of its last eight games. The Knicks, who rank second-to-last in scoring, just put up 113 points on Orlando.  

Orlando has been better on the road. The Magic are 5-14 SU at home, 7-12 ATS.  

Nikola Vucevic is playing well for Orlando, but the Pacers rank 22 spots higher than the Magic in rebounding. I also like Indiana's coaching edge with Frank Vogel. Orlando coach Jacque Vaughn still hasn't solved his team's defensive woes, lack of toughness, nor has he found the right rotation. 

The Clippers have the superstars, but that doesn't mean they are better than the Suns when playing in Phoenix.
Los Angeles has won three in a row. Those victories those were against below .500 teams the Nets, Celtics and Kings.
Phoenix has gone 14-5 since switching its lineup. The Suns were in a position to win the other five games during this span during the final minute. Their last non-competitive loss was back on Dec. 14. Since Dec. 17, the Suns have the third-best record in the NBA behind only the Warriors and Hawks.
The Suns' trio of outstanding guards - Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas - can cause a lot of problems for the depth-shy Clippers. Phoenix has broken the 100-point barrier in all but one of its last 17 games.
The Suns nearly upset the Clippers in LA during their previous meeting blowing a four-point lead with 34 seconds left in a 121-120 overtime loss while missing Thomas.

Kansas has a matchup problem against Texas and it's made worse when the Jayhawks play the Longhorns on the road. Kansas has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away matchups and lost 81-69 at Texas last season.
Only Kentucky has a higher shot blocking percentage than Texas. Kansas lost 72-40 to the Wildcats earlier this season. The Longhorns also rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and are third in field-goal percentage defense.
The Longhorns start 6-foot-8 Jonathan Holmes, 6-9 Connor Lammert and 6-9 Cameron Ridley. They also have 6-11 freshman Myles Turner playing more than half the team’s minutes off the bench. He could be the most talented player on Texas' roster.
All of this creates a huge problem for the smaller Jayhawks. Only 12 teams out of 351 have had more shots blocked than Kansas, according to research compiled by KenPom.com. The Jayhawks also rank 263rd in two-pointers, the lowest figure during Bill Self's 12 years at Kansas.
So getting shots rejected and scoring easy buckets is a huge problem for Kansas and it's made far worse in this matchup. Kansas doesn't figure to get easy looks at the basket as the Longhorns rank 28th in percentage of close shots allowed. The Jayhawks aren't going to get many calls either being on the road so they don't figure to be helped at the free throw line.

The Rockets lost a lot of their swagger and confidence after suffering recent blowout losses to Golden State. Now they face the hot Suns on the road, a team they do not match up against well at all.

The Suns are going for their seventh consecutive home win. They have not played a bad game in nearly a month going 14-4 during their last 18 games with two of those defeats coming on the road in overtime to Oklahoma City and Memphis. 

Houston is 3-5 in its last eight road contests. The Rockets catch a rested and relaxed Suns squad that has been home for 10 days. Phoenix is averaging 112.5 points in its last four home contests. The Suns rank No. 3 in steals and turnovers forced led by their star guard trio of Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas. 

Houston's defense has slipped and the Rockets have trouble handling the ball ranking second to last in turnovers and number of steals allowed. 

Denver had started to show signs of life earlier this month, but have lost four in a row. Three of those defeats came to the Mavericks, Warriors and Spurs, though.
Now the Nuggets step way down in class in a circle-the-wagons game for them. Denver has been idle the past two days and gets back sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari. He had missed the last 15 games with a knee injury. Gallinari can take some of the perimeter pressure off Arron Afflalo.
The Nuggets are making just 40.8 percent of their shots from the field during their losing streak and 33 percent from the 3-point line. They also are hitting just 66.3 percent from the free-throw line. Gallinari should help turn around those low marks.
The Celtics just ended a 24-game road losing streak to Western Conference foes by nipping injury-plagued Portland, 90-89, last night on a 3-pointer by Evan Turner with one second left. This puts the Celtics, who dealt away point guard Rajon Rondo and leading scorer Jeff Green, in a letdown spot lacking the offense to stay with Denver.
Not only are the Celtics playing without rest, but they are entering a new time zone and playing in high altitude. They have a bad track record in Denver having lost the past five times there while failing to cover eight of the last 10 times, including losing by 31 points last season at Pepsi Center.
I like the Nuggets even if Kenneth Faried can't play. He missed Thursday's practice with flulike symptoms.

The Nets don't have the offense to hang with the Clippers and are fat and happy after holding off Sacramento last night to open their West Coast trip with a victory. They have a far more winnable road game against the Jazz on Saturday.
The Clippers, unlike the Nets who are without Deron Williams, are healthy and their stars are in their prime. The Clippers rank in the top four in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
Brooklyn is averaging just 92 points during its last 10 games going 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS. The Nets are averaging 11 points fewer per game than the Clippers. The Clippers are giving up less than 99 points per game at home. They have defeated the Nets nine of the last 10 times at Staples Center, including the past three. LA also is 6-3 ATS hosting below .500 Eastern Conference opponents.
The Nets beat the Kings in large part because of a strong performance from center Brook Lopez, who scored 22 points and had six blocks. Lopez figures to struggle, though, matched against DeAndre Jordan, who is having a monster season leading the NBA in rebounding and field goal percentage while ranking second in blocks.   
Another key for the Clippers is focus. They should have it since they last played on Monday and won't play again until Sunday.  

Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups.
UCLA gets much of its scoring from its guards. However, Oregon State has a pair of tremendous defensive guards in Gary Payton II, who ranks second in the nation in steals, and Malcolm Duvivier. The Beavers rank first in the Pac-12 in 3-point defense. Only Arizona has a better defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 than Oregon State, which upset the Wildcats at home on Jan. 11.
The Bruins have just an eight-man rotation and that may be reduced as center Tony Parker is a game-time decision because of back spasms.
UCLA figures to be rusty having been idle since Jan. 14. The Bruins have failed to cover 10 of the last 13 times when facing an opponent with a winning record. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS the last seven times they've hosted a foe with a losing road mark.

Lot of superstars here with James Harden, Dwight Howard and Stephen Curry. So offense is the first thing to come to mind.
However, these two teams rank first and second, respectively, in defensive efficiency. Golden State also is No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage while the Rockets rank second in defensive 3-point percentage.
Yet we have a very high total here. Why? Besides the star power there is the Warriors' 131-106 road win against the Rockets this past Saturday. That's a combined 237 points.
But in the two previous games this season the Rockets and Warriors combined for 185 points and 198 points.
The Rockets are going to play defense with a great deal of intensity after giving up their highest point total in 120 games following that humiliating 25-point home loss to the Warriors. This is what Rockets coach Kevin McHale was quoted as saying after the loss to the Warriors, "We have to be a lot better. We didn't put up any kind of fight. We didn't have the effort against them."
So I'm expecting a big defensive effort from the Rockets, while the Warriors have surrendered an average of only 91 points per game during their last five home games with three of those matchups coming against respectable offenses Denver, Cleveland and Oklahoma City.  

Northern Iowa is giving up too many points here. Indiana State has won and covered in five of its last six games. The Sycamores also lead the Missouri Valley Conference in field goal percentage.

The pace is going to be slow here with points a struggle to come by. That also is a plus for an underdog of this many points. 

This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 22 of the past 29 times. The Sycamores also have covered in five of their last seven visits to Northern Iowa. 

San Antonio is starting to make its move with Kawhi Leonard back healthy. The Spurs have won five of their last six, including three in a row. Leonard helped the Spurs win their last two games - 110-96 over Portland and 89-69 over Utah. San Antonio has tightened its defense allowing just 91.1 points per game during its last six matchups.
There is some urgency with the Spurs as they are in seventh place in the Western Conference. No coach is better with time to prepare than Gregg Popovich. The Spurs were one of the few teams that did not play on Monday.
Denver is playing for the fourth time in the last five days. The Nuggets played yesterday and were blown out on the road at Golden State, 122-79. They probably will play hard following that humiliation, but they are not playing well with three straight losses and have yet to settle on a rotation. Brian Shaw, in my view, is in way over his head as a head coach giving San Antonio a coaching edge of massive proportions.

Taking to the road after six straight home games might be the best thing for the Raptors especially since they are taking on the Bucks.
Toronto may have been playing over its head during the early stages of the season, but the Raptors aren't as bad as they've been lately losing seven of their last nine. This is a circle-the-wagons type of matchup for the Raptors after losing 95-93 at home on Sunday to New Orleans, who were missing Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday.
The Raptors have owned the Bucks winning the past five in the series. This includes a 124-82 home win against Milwaukee on Nov. 21. That was the Bucks' worst loss of the season.  
The Bucks weren't suffering from jet lag either during that defeat like they could be here having played their last game in London this past Thursday against the hopeless Knicks. Toronto played early on Sunday and is 6-1 ATS the last seven times when playing without rest.
This will be DeMar DeRozan's fourth game back from a torn abductor. So the adjustment period should be over. DeRozan and Kyle Lowery give Toronto the two best players on the court.
Milwaukee's one-time deep bench has been weakened by injuries to Jabari Parker and Kendall Marshall, both out for the season, and by the suspension to center Larry Sanders, its best shot-blocker.  

Detroit and Atlanta have been two play-on teams. But the spot and line value clearly favor the Pistons in this matchup.
The Pistons catch the Hawks in action for the fifth time in seven days and returning home for this holiday matchup after a hugely successful four-game road trip where they defeated the 76ers, Celtics, Raptors and Bulls.
The Hawks are playing outstanding, but so is Detroit. The Pistons have won 11 of their last 13 games going 10-3 ATS. One of those defeats came at home, 106-103, to the Hawks 10 days ago. That was the first time the Pistons lost since getting rid of Josh Smith.
The Pistons have won and covered their last seven road games, posting victories against the Spurs, Mavericks and Raptors during this span.
Detroit can hang tight with Atlanta on the road especially given the Hawks' fatigue and situational disadvantages.    

Revenge can be overrated in the NBA. Not here. The Wizards were embarrassed 102-80 at home last night by Eastern Conference rival Brooklyn.
Now Washington can do something right away about it as this is a back-to-back home-road series.
The Wizards were ripe for a letdown last night having posted impressive victories this week against the Spurs and Bulls. The Nets entered last night's matchup on a seven-game losing streak with trade rumors swirling around several of their players.
But the Nets played well, particularly Brook Lopez, and the Wizards had their poorest game of the season. Sensing his team lacked the necessary energy - which happens during the course of the long NBA season - Wizards coach Randy Wittman pulled his starters early. Only John Wall logged more than 26 minutes. He played 31 minutes.
I'm expecting a monster effort from the Wizards, who are the more rested team with the superior talent and stronger bench especially with Deron Williams out for the Nets. Washington's key players are in their prime. Brooklyn's top players are past their prime.
Normally the Nets wouldn't be able to match the Wizards' physical play and up-tempo pace. I don't see them doing it twice in a row especially off such a satisfying victory and considering how bad they've been playing with a 2-7 ATS mark in their last nine games. Marcin Gortat is much better than he looked Friday. He should be able to clamp down on the slow-footed Lopez.

Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier.
The Spartans also have revenge from a 68-66 home overtime loss to the Terrapins on Dec. 30 when they shot only 32.3 percent from the field. I'd take Tom Izzo over any coach when it comes to same-season conference revenge. Izzo's record stands 30-11 SU and 28-12-1 ATS the past 41 times in these instances. The Spartans have beaten the spread by an average of more than four points per game during this span.
The Spartans were out-rebounded in the first meeting, which negated them committing eight fewer turnovers than Maryland. The Spartans are the superior rebounding team so that shouldn't happen again.
Michigan State also has proven itself on the road against top competition covering 13 of the past 19 times when taking on a foe with a winning home record. Maryland is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home contests.

A revenge spot for Dallas has the oddsmaker opening this game way too high. The Mavericks sat out Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Rajon Rondo when they met the Nuggets at Pepsi Center two nights ago. The Nuggets won, 114-107.
Those three stars are all slated to be in Dallas' lineup tonight. But it's not a given the Mavericks are going to easily defeat the Nuggets, who are playing their finest ball of the season with five straight victories. The Nuggets are averaging 109.8 points per game on 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during their winning streak.
 Denver has defeated Dallas in six of the last eight meetings. The Nuggets outrebounded the Mavericks by 12 this past Wednesday. Chandler being back makes a difference. He's the third-leading rebounder in the league. But the Nuggets still will be active on the boards thanks to Kenneth Faried, who had 22 points and 14 rebounds versus Dallas two nights ago. Only 11 players average more rebounds per game than Faried.
The Nuggets were short-handed at point guard when they beat Dallas. That won't be the case tonight as they have former Maverick Jameer Nelson to back up Ty Lawson, who played huge on Wednesday with 29 points and 12 assists. Nelson knows the Mavericks well having started the first 23 games for them this season. His knowledge should come in handy.
Dallas has covered just one of its last 12 games versus Western Conference opponents. The Mavericks also have a much better spread record on the road than at home where they have failed to cover nine of the past 12 times.

Enough is enough. Now that LeBron James is back in the lineup and taking on the league's second-worst defense expect the Cavaliers to end their six-game losing streak with a resounding victory over the Lakers.
The Lakers are surrendering 106.8 points per game and have matchup problems all over the court starting with James, who hit 11 of 18 shots from the field while scoring 33 points against the Suns two nights ago. James didn't look rusty at all after missing the previous eight games with a sore knee.
Los Angeles' point guards Ronnie Price and Jeremy Lin are going to have problems handling Kyrie Irving and Cleveland newcomer Timofey Mozgov has hurt the Lakers' in the past with his inside presence.
It's going to be difficult for the Lakers to keep pace with Cleveland's scoring as their two main scorers, Kobe Bryant and Nick Young, are in shooting slumps. Bryant is at the end of a Hall of Fame career. The Lakers play better without him and his atrocious less than 37 percent shooting percentage, ball-hog ways.
The Cavaliers are going to treat this game with a great deal of urgency being under .500 now and having dropped nine of their last 10.

This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona.
That was Oregon State's biggest win in 15 years and puts the Beavers in a huge letdown spot. The Beavers' talent level still is way down. Washington, though, certainly won't be looking down at the Beavers desperately needing a victory and knowing Oregon State is capable of knocking off a top Pac-12 team.  
Oregon State has lost to the Huskies during each of its last 11 visits to Seattle. That string should definitely continue here. Washington holds a strong backcourt edge with point guard Nigel Williams. The Huskies have three guards who average in double figures and also hold a strong frontcourt edge behind center Robert Upshaw.
The Beavers lack a true point guard and haven't really faced an opponent with as much depth in the frontcourt as Washington has with its strong shot-blocking and rebounding abilities.

The spot couldn't be better for Denver. The Nuggets have been idle for four days and catch the aging Mavericks off an overtime road victory against Sacramento last night. All of Dallas' starters logged at least 36 minutes against the Kings with four of them seeing at least 38 minutes of action. Big man Tyson Chandler played nearly 44 minutes.  
Now the Mavs have to go into Denver's high altitude from the West Coast where they lose an hour because of the time change and face the Nuggets, who are playing their finest ball with a four-game winning streak. Arron Afflalo has been especially hot for the Nuggets averaging 23 points in his last five games.
These same two teams meet again Friday in Dallas. That's the better spot for the Mavericks. Not here.  

Illinois State wasn't fully focused on New Year's Eve when it hosted Indiana State. The result was a two-point loss as an 11-point favorite.
I see Illinois State highly motivated now two weeks later in a revenge spot and shooting much better than 35.8 percent, which it shot in the first meeting from the floor.
The Redbirds have covered five of their last six road games while the Sycamores are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home contests.

Dallas hasn't lost three games in a row all season and I don't see the Mavericks losing here. The Mavericks are 19-2 in their last 21 regular-season games versus Sacramento.
The Mavericks were rolling along riding a six-game winning streak where they were outscoring their opponents by 13.5 points per game until losing to the hot Pistons last Wednesday and then getting blown out, 120-100, by the Clippers on the road this past Saturday.
Dallas is much superior to Sacramento and won't lack for motivation. The Kings possess talent with DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. But they are immature, which could factor in this matchup as the Kings blew out the Cavaliers at home this past Saturday.  
Sacramento is just 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 home games even with that victory. The Mavericks are 48-20 ATS under Rick Carlisle following a loss and have covered 69 percent of their previous 89 road matchups.
Dallas came from 24 points down to beat Sacramento in the first meeting of the season, 106-98. The Kings were playing better back then. They have yet to reach their early-season promise since naming recycled Tyrone Corbin as their interim coach 13 games ago going 5-8.

This is a bad matchup for the Nets, who are short in the backcourt without injured Deron Williams and don't have the inside talent to contain Dwight Howard.
The Rockets are playing well while Brooklyn is not. Houston has won three in a row - all by 12 points or more. The Rockets rank third in the NBA in defense and are averaging 108.4 points in their last five games. James Harden is leading the league in scoring. The Rockets have improved their rotation since bringing Josh Smith off the bench.
The Nets have dropped five in a row, averaging less than 87 points per game during this span. Brooklyn traditionally struggles versus athletic teams. There is a fatigue issue, too, for the Nets playing for the sixth time in nine days. Houston has won 14 of the last 15 in the series going 11-4 ATS.
The Rockets have covered the past seven times when facing a below .500 team. The Nets are 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 times when meeting a foe with a road winning percentage above .600.

Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage.
The Flyers have covered 11 of the past 15 times when playing a below .500 opponent. Dayton has beaten Fordham the past three times winning by an average of 23 points a game. Dayton is strong again this season while Fordham is down. The Rams are inexperienced, have a weak backcourt and are in a rebuilding situation.  

The Timberwolves have to win sometime don't they? They are mired in a 13-game losing streak minus key players Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin. In addition, veteran point guard Mo Williams turned an ankle in the Wolves' narrow loss to the Suns two nights and may not play.
But unlike the 76ers and Knicks - the other two worst teams in the NBA - the Timberwolves have some exciting young talent and usually can be counted on for a good effort. More than half of their defeats during their losing streak have been by single-digits.
The Bucks may be the most improved team in the Eastern Conference, but they have lost and failed to cover in their last four home games. Milwaukee is down key players, too, especially in the frontcourt where Ersan Ilyasova, Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders are all out.
Minnesota has won four of the last five in the series. Andrew Wiggins is making a strong bid to win Rookie of the Year honors averaging 22.6 points and shooting 51.3 percent from the floor during the last eight games. Anthony Bennett has put together two straight double-double performances and Shabazz Muhammad has scored 18 or more points in eight of his last 13 games.

I'm going to take this many points with Utah after word that Trey Burks is healthy enough to play after missing the last game due to illness. Utah has covered seven of its last eight road games and catch Chicago in a flat spot.
The Bulls are off an impressive home win against the Rockets this past Monday and are at Washington on Friday in a much bigger game.
Chicago is 6-11 ATS at United Center this season and have failed to cover seven of the past nine times when playing foes that have a winning percentage under .400.
The Bulls have won 10 of their past 11 games, but only one of those victories was by more than nine points.
The Jazz nearly beat the Bulls when they met back in late November losing by two points. Only of the last five games between the two teams have been decided by more than four points.

I'll take the points with a good Western Conference team versus a good Eastern Conference team. Memphis ranks sixth defensively and is shooting 46.6 percent from the floor. Atlanta ranks fifth defensively and shoots 46.7 percent from the floor. The Grizzlies are 19-1 the past 20 times when outshooting their opponent.
The spot is good for the Grizzlies catching the Hawks in their first home game back from three straight wins on the West Coast, a journey that didn't finish until this past Monday.

These have been two play-on teams, but I believe the Suns get it done here in a revenge spot and off one of their most impressive victories of the season.
Phoenix has covered nine of its last 10. The Suns rolled past Toronto, 125-109, this past Sunday for their eighth win in their last 10 games. Phoenix is 7-1 on the road versus Eastern Conference foes, winning the last five times.
The Bucks stepped way down in competition beating the Knicks on the road this past Sunday, 95-82. If they didn't win that game they would have losing record since Jabari Parker went down 10 games ago.
The Suns have won during their past three visits to Milwaukee. They lost at home, though, in mid-December to the Bucks on a crazy 3-point shot at the buzzer, 96-94. The Suns didn't have Goran Dragic for that game. Dragic is their best player. He's averaging 19.4 points during the last seven games.  
The Bucks can't match the Suns in the backcourt and aren't a superior rebounding team to take advantage of Phoenix's smallish frontcourt especially with perennial distraction Larry Sanders missing in action.

Much is made of Minnesota's many injuries. But Utah is down to its fourth-string shooting guard with Alec Burks, Rodney Hood and Patrick Christopher all out. The Jazz also lost center Enes Kanter last night in their 98-92 home loss to the Hawks. Kanter suffered an ankle injury leaving Utah thin up front, too, along with the backcourt.
Due to their guard injuries, Trey Burke had to log 39 minutes against the Hawks and his arms obviously were weary because he missed a mind-boggling 19 of 21 shots from the field, including all 11 of his 3-point attempts. The Jazz didn't mail in this game either. They had a strong fourth quarter comeback that fell short.
Now the Jazz have to make the trek to wintery Minnesota less than 24 hours after falling to the Hawks. Utah has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has played on zero rest. The Timberwolves, losers of 10 in a row, may seem like the perfect patsy but they are not. They have covered four in a row, have some young talent and rank seventh in fast break points. They will run on the tired Jazz, who are down a key rebounder with Kanter sidelined.
Minnesota also has covered in four of its last five versus Utah and have revenge for a 100-94 loss to the Jazz in Salt Lake City this past Tuesday.

The Grizzlies are back on track following their 95-87 home win against the Spurs this past Tuesday. Memphis doesn't want to give that great win right back with a loss against the lowly Lakers.

Memphis ranks fifth defensively giving up 12 points fewer per game than the Lakers, who rank last defensively. The Grizzlies remain without Zach Randolph, but still dominate inside against the Lakers with Marc Gasol and at point guard with Mike Conley, who quietly is having an outstanding season. Conley has taken advantage of the Lakers' weakness at point guard to average 22 points and shoot 56.4 percent from the field in the last three games versus LA.

The Grizzlies have defeated the Lakers in eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past four. They beat the Lakers on Nov. 26 by six points when the Lakers played pretty well. I don't think the Lakers will be that sharp here coming off a 111-103 road win at Denver. Kobe Bryant may have had his best game of the season in that victory. Bryant, though, is shooting 37.5 percent from the floor.

Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here.

Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games.

UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number. 

No team has been hotter than Atlanta, which has won 14 of 15. The Hawks have proven they can beat elite competition, too, reeling off five straight victories with those wins coming against the Bulls, Cavaliers, Rockets, Mavericks and Clippers. The first four of those victories were achieved on the road.

Atlanta rallied from a 13-point deficit to knock off the Clippers on Tuesday in its last game. I see a letdown for the Hawks as they finally step down in class. The two teams meet again tomorrow night in Milwaukee so it's not a kill spot either for the Hawks.

The Bucks should be fired-up after holding a 50-minute players-only meeting following their last game, a 108-101 home loss to the Hornets. Atlanta has been playing outstanding defense, but the Bucks have reached triple digits in 12 of their past 14 games. They are shooting 49.9 percent from the field this month, best in the NBA.

The Bucks have covered 12 of 17 road games this season and have the highest scoring bench in the league. That puts them in line for at least a back-door cover if the Hawks play better than expected.

Golden State is the better team and the set up is right for the Warriors.

The Warriors led by 29 points when they rolled past the Clippers, 121-104, in their first meeting in early November. They are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 Western Conference matchups.

Golden State is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and also has a top-five offense. No other NBA team is in the top-five offensively and defensively.

The Warriors have David Lee back and will be highly motivated following a shocking loss in its last game this past Tuesday against the Lakers. Note that game was played at Staples Center where this matchup is. So the Warriors are rested. The Clippers aren't, though. This is their third game in four days. They've been at San Antonio and had to fly in from Atlanta where they played two nights ago. This makes their third time zone in four nights.

Golden State has won and covered 75 percent of the time this season in the 12 games it has played against teams with a winning record. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS the last six times when they faced an opponent with an above .600 winning percentage.

Contrast this with the Clippers who are 4-7 SU, 2-9 ATS when facing foes above .500 and are 1-6 ATS when taking on foes with an above .600 winning percentage. The Clippers also have failed to cover 13 of their last 18 home games. 

This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go.

Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor.

George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone.

Don't be fooled by the Hawks' 18-7 record. Atlanta has played the weakest schedule of any team. The Hawks have some talented players, but they aren't that good and point guard Jeff Teague may be out. Atlanta is 2-18 in its last 20 road games versus Western Conference opponents.

Houston is holding foes to 93 points a game at home. The Rockets have the No. 2 defense in the league and have won 19 straight games at home versus Eastern Conference foes.

The Rockets' eight-game winning streak was snapped in a 99-90 home loss to New Orleans. The Rockets had no legs in that game after winning in high altitude the night before in overtime against Denver. It has been more than a year since the Rockets have lost back-to-back home games.   

I don't see any way the Jazz can win three straight road games. This is Utah's fifth game in seven days - all road contests and their second matchup with in 48 hours.

The Hornets have a poor record, but that's in part because they've played a very difficult schedule. They should start to get better as they are healthier and some of their players such as Gerald Henderson are playing better.

The Hornets hold a strong inside-outside edge on Utah with Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker.

Orlando is a much improved team. The Magic went 23-59 last season. Orlando is 10-18 this season and has played the most road games in the league at 19.

Now the Magic are in a stop-the-pain game after consecutive road losses to Toronto and Boston. Sometimes returning home after a road swing can be tricky, especially coming home to sunny central Florida. But this was just a short tip that ended two nights ago so I'm expecting a focused Orlando effort.

Utah is in a rare letdown spot after winning for just the second times in its last 14 games defeating Miami on the road, 105-87, this past Wednesday. The Jazz sank an insane 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range in the victory.

This marks the Jazz's fourth road game in a row. It's their third road game in four days and fourth matchup in six days. Utah is 3-10 away from Salt Lake City. The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home contests versus opponents with a losing road record.

Orlando defeated the Jazz in Salt Lake City, 98-93, two weeks ago despite missing their best inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Orlando is a much better team with Vucevic back in the lineup. The 7-footer is shooting 51 percent from the floor. Utah ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage.  

Golden State has won 16 of its last 17 and are eager to start a new winning streak after losing on Tuesday at Memphis. The Warriors are 8-1 at home, winning their last six there.

The Warriors have no flaws. They rank No. 1 defensively and are sixth offensively.

Oklahoma City is not all the way back despite going 7-1 since Kevin Durant returned. The Thunder have played an extremely easy schedule since Durant has been back facing opponents who were a combined 50 games under .too. They also caught the Cavaliers without LeBron James, Kings without DeMarcus Cousins and Suns without Goran Dragic.

In a few weeks, the Thunder may very well be as good as Golden State, but right now the Warriors are better even without Andrew Bogut especially when factoring in home-court.

The Bucks have the best point spread mark in the NBA at 17-8. That includes a 9-5 ATS road record. They have a strong ATS mark versus Western Conference foes covering 11 of the past 15 times and have gotten the money in five of their last six meetings against Portland.

Milwaukee has won in two of its last three visits to Portland, losing last season in overtime.

The Bucks did lose their prize rookie, Jabari Parker, for the season in their road win against the Suns two nights ago. That put a damper on that victory, but I feel the Bucks will come out fired up in their first game without Parker. 

This is a sandwich spot for Portland, which knocked off San Antonio at home two nights ago and plays at San Antonio on Friday. The Spurs are a far more important opponent to Portland than non-conference foe Milwaukee.

The Trail Blazers are scoring 4.4 points less per game than last season. However, their defense has improved. Yet the Trail Blazers also suffered a key injury in their last game when center Robin Lopez broke his hand. Lopez had spearheaded Portland's defense. He was averaging 9.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots.

Now the Trail Blazers have to use over-the-hill, Chris Kaman at center, weakening their interior defense. The Bucks have scored 50 or more points in the paint during three of their last four games.

These are two of the stingiest defenses in the country, but San Diego State is the better team.

Cincinnati has yet to play a ranked opponent. The Bearcats are inexperienced and struggling to find their offense. San Diego State ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense. 

The Aztecs are tournament tested having reached the Sweet 16 last season. They have had a week to prepare for this matchup and their offense is better versus man-to-man defenses, which Cincinnati plays.

Cincinnati is a tough venue, but San Diego State is 42-18-2 ATS in its last 62 road contests.

Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players.

Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago.

Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is  now eligible.

The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus. 

Orlando is much improved this season with some underrated young players. They also have Nikola Vucevic back and are in a good situational spot.

The Raptors had to rally from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to beat New York on Sunday in overtime on the road. The Raptors are just 5-4 in their last nine games after a fast start. They lack a consistent go-to guy with DeMar DeRozan out.

Orlando is at its best on the road. The Magic have covered 12 of their last 16 away matchups. This is a revenge spot for them after the Raptors came from 11 down to nip them on the road, 104-100, last month. 

The Raptors host the Nets in their next game in two nights. The Nets eliminated them in a bitter seven-game playoff series last season.

Elon is guard-oriented and plays good perimeter defense. The Phoenix are feisty and can hang inside this number against Duke. This is their last opportunity to probably face a Top 25 team during the regular season.

Duke is rusty and has a huge look-ahead game on deck. The Blue Devils last played on Dec. 3 when they knocked off then second-ranked Wisconsin. Duke plays defending national champion Connecticut on Thursday.

Elon is No. 1 in the underrated Colonial Athletic in 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Phoenix nearly beat Missouri on the road and lost in overtime at Northwestern. So they have experience against major college programs.

Elon rallied from 19 down at Missouri this past Thursday to pull within one point with less than 30 seconds to play before falling 78-73. The Phoenix outscored the Tigers, 46-32, in the second half proving they won't quit. I like to have a big 'dog like that going for me. 

The Spurs have had one full day to stew after losing at home to the Lakers this past Friday. The words "pitiful" should be seared on the Spurs' minds. That's what Gregg Popovich called their performance versus the Lakers.

I'm expecting the Spurs to play at a high intensity level against the 10-13, inconsistent Nuggets.

San Antonio is 16-6 ATS when playing on one day's rest. That mark isn't a fluke since Popovich is the best coach in the business and the most dangerous with time to prepare.

The Spurs can't afford not to be sharp with upcoming games against Portland twice, Memphis, Dallas, Clippers and Thunder.

Denver isn't playing well losing five of its last six. This includes a 108-96 road loss to Houston last night.

The Spurs match up well to the Nuggets particularly inside with Tim Duncan. The Spurs swept the Nuggets last season winning by an average of nearly 20 points a game. They have defeated Denver in 12 of the past 16 meetings. Duncan has dominated Denver averaging 22.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.2 blocks during the past six meetings.

The 76ers should come in to this home matchup motivated after an embarrassing 88-70 road loss to the Nets last night. The 76ers have better talent than their record shows.

This is a tricky spot for Memphis. It's the Grizzlies' lone road game during a six-game span and they just outlasted Charlotte, 113-107, in double overtime last night. All but one of Memphis' starters played big minutes. The Grizzlies do not have a strong bench. 

The Grizzlies have far more important games on deck - hosting Golden State on Tuesday and playing at San Antonio on Wednesday. So for this game they just want to come away with a victory with no need to go all out to cover any double-digit type margin.

The 76ers have covered five of their last seven and are 7-4 ATS at home this season.