Both teams play at a very slow pace. That held firm in Saturday's Game 1 where there were fewer than 91 possessions. Yet the total went Over with the 76ers winning, 121-101.

So what happened?

The Nets shot 56 percent from the floor. The 76ers set a team playoff record by making 21 3-pointers. They made 21 of 43 shots from behind the arc. That's 49 percent. The 76ers shot 38 percent from 3-point range during the regular season. 

The Nets rank fourth in defensive field goal percentage. The 76ers are third in scoring defense. If you discount a 123-point performance against the hapless Pistons, the Nets are averaging only 102 points in their last four games. 

These are two strong defenses and now they've played a playoff game against each other so defensive adjustments will be coming.

"Game 2 is going to be much more difficult,'' 76ers guard James Harden was quoted as saying. "They're going to make adjustments and we're going to make adjustments, so it's going to be the most important game of the series. ...'' 

Forget the regular season. The Clippers are in the playoffs. That makes them dangerous. They are a veteran team with arguably the best all-around player in basketball, Kawhi Leonard. Only twice during the previous two seasons did the Clippers lose by more than seven points in a playoff matchup spanning 21 games.

The Suns look far superior on paper with stars Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton. But The Suns aren't in sync yet due to Durant playing only eight games for them. Phoenix also doesn't have a deep bench. The Suns' reserve strength could be even more thin if injured Bismack Biyombo and Cameron Payne aren't ready to play after getting hurt during the second-to-last game of the regular season.

The Clippers have better reserves. Paul George is out, but the Clippers have Russell Westbrook along with underrated role players Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac and Nicolas Batum.

The Clippers also have proven extremely tough following ample rest. They have covered 69 percent of their last 52 games when playing with three or more days rest.

The Suns are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. They ranked between fifth and seventh, overall, in many of the major defensive categories, including fewest points per game, defensive field goal percentage and blocked shots.

Phoenix's defensive intensity should be at its peak, too, now that it's playoff time. They catch the Clippers without their leading scorer, injured Paul George and his 23.8 points per game average.

The season stats might not show it, but the Clippers are a strong defensive team, too, especially during the playoffs. Toss out giving up 130 points to the Suns two seasons ago and the Clippers have allowed just 99.3 points in their last six playoff games.

The teams last played a week ago. So there could be a rust factor.

The Under has cashed six of the last eight times the Clippers and Suns have met.

These are two good defensive teams. Now throw in playoff intensity, an early start time and how well acquainted they are with each other and you have the winning formula for an Under.

The Nets are a top-10 defensive team. They ranked fourth in defensive field goal percentage, too. That's not good news for James Harden. He's healthy at last. But Harden is more methodical rather than up-tempo. He holds the ball a long time taking time off the clock. Both teams rated in the bottom 10 in terms of pace.

Philadelphia had the third-stingiest defense. The 76ers rank fifth in 3-point defense. If you discount a 123-point performance against the hapless Pistons, the Nets are averaging 102.6 points in their last three games.

These teams have had six days to study each other's sets and tendencies, something they already know. They're familiar with the plays they run. This is Game 1, a feeling out process. It's an early start, too.

So don't expect a high-scoring game.

Disrespected by the oddsmaker and marketplace all season, Oklahoma City has proven it is far ahead of schedule. The Thunder have covered 57 percent of their games this season going 46-34-3 ATS. They will reach the playoffs if they beat the Timberwolves.

The Thunder upset the Pelicans on Wednesday. I see them doing the same to Minnesota. Oklahoma City is on house money. The pressure is on the favored Timberwolves. Minnesota is banged-up and has chemistry issues. I find the Timberwolves untrustworthy. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.

Only twice in their last 10 games have the Thunder lost by more than five points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is as big as any star Minnesota has.

Rudy Gobert is back from his one-game suspension for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. Gobert, though, is not 100 percent due to back trouble. Jaden McDaniels, a top defensive wing, is out. So is Naz Reid. Those are two key rotation players for Minnesota.

The Thunder have covered in six of their last seven visits to Minnesota.

Few expected the Thunder to reach the postseason this season. The Thunder are on house money with all the pressure on the home Pelicans with the loser of this matchup eliminated.

The Pelicans went 9-3 down the stretch to reach this point. That took a lot of physical and mental energy.

Oklahoma City has lost only twice by more than five points during its last nine games. The Thunder have confidence knowing they defeated the Pelicans, 110-96, in New Orleans when the teams last met on March 11.

The Thunder have been strong money-makers all season going 45-34-3 ATS, the third-best spread in the NBA.

I trust them to hang in against the Pelicans.

The Lakers are hot, peaking at the right time. The Timberwolves lack the bodies, maturity and leadership to stay close on the road against the Lakers here.

LA has won nine of its last 11 games with six of those victories coming by 11 or more points. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are in sync. D'Angelo Russell is back contributing.

The Timberwolves are in disarray - and it's not just because star center Rudy Gobert is suspended for this game for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. The Timberwolves have three underrated injuries: Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell. They are all out. Those are the Timberwolves' fourth, sixth and seventh-leading scorers and key complementary players.

So without those three and Gobert, Minnesota is down four of its nine rotation players. It's too much to expect Minnesota to stay within single digits of the hot Lakers on the road minus all those components especially given their team makeup.

There are a lot of insane lines today, the last day of the NBA regular season. This looks like one of them with the road Clippers opening as double-digit favorites against the Suns.

But it makes sense considering the Clippers plan on playing their starters, while the Suns will be resting their best players.

Still, there could be some gamesmanship involved on the Clippers' end.

Here's the possible scenarios: If the Clippers beat the Suns they finish as the No. 5 seed in the West. That would mean a first-round matchup against - yep, you guessed it the Suns. So neither team will want to show much here.

However, if the Clippers lose, they likely would fall to the No. 6 seed and thus draw the Kings. Playing the Kings, with their playoff inexperience, would be easier than getting the Suns. So Tyronn Lue might be bluffing when he says he'll be playing his starters. He still could start them for appearance sake, but reduce their minutes, especially Kawhi Leonard.

Phoenix is locked into the No. 4 seed. Suns coach Monty Williams is expected to sit out Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. The Suns don't have much firepower minus those stars.

Instead the big minutes on the Suns will go to Torrey Craig, Jock Landale and Josh Okogie.

So I'm going Under the total in anticipation of these expected developments, which I see as all favoring a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker projects.

At worst, the Timberwolves are going to be involved in the postseason with a play-in game. They would rather earn the No. 8 seed in the West, which they are live to do if they beat the Spurs here, Pelicans on Sunday and things fall their way.

The Timberwolves, though, are just 5-10 against the NBA's five worst teams. That includes the Spurs, who are 2-1 versus Minnesota this season. So the Timberwolves do not have a good track record in these types of games. They lack that maturity. They also are laying an inflated number because of their playoff situation.

"We always fall short, it seems,'' Anthony Edwards was quoted as saying about the Timberwolves' struggles against bottom feeders. "It always haunts us. It's just a level of respect for the game. You've got to treat every game the same, and that's something that we lack.''

This is the Spurs' second consecutive game at the Moody Center in Austin. That's where their G-League franchise is located. The Spurs beat the Trail Blazers, 129-127, there on Thursday, sparked by the atmosphere and crowd support.

The Timberwolves haven't played there. Minnesota last was in action on Tuesday. So there could be a rust factor for the Timberwolves.

Two horrible teams with nothing to play for get together in their second-to-last game of the season. Sounds like an Over to me, especially when those teams are the Pistons and Pacers.

Detroit is 1-22 in its last 23 games. The Pistons rank 27th in scoring defense and 28th in defensive field goal percentage. They've surrendered at least 118 points in seven of their last eight games.

Indiana is 2-8 in its last 10 games. The Pacers rank 29th in scoring defense and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. They are giving up an average of 129.8 points during their last seven games.

The Over has cashed eight of the last nine times the Pacers have hosted the Pistons.

Neither team is strong defensively and both are off high-scoring games this past Tuesday. However, those two results were misleading. The Thunder were playing the high-scoring Warriors at Golden State while the Jazz went to overtime against the rejuvenated Lakers.

This matchup should be entirely different. Defensive intensity should be way up with both teams in contention for the play-in tournament.

The Jazz especially will be defensive-minded playing at home minus injured starters Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Those are Utah's three leading scorers. Expect a slow pace from Utah.

The Thunder have gone Under 10 of the past 13 times when playing a sub .500 opponent.

The Pacers are out of the playoff race. They aren't likely to have their two best players, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner.

So why back Indiana?

The Knicks lack motivation and are banged-up. New York is locked into the No. 5 playoff seed in the East.

Julius Randle, New York's best player, is out for the rest of the regular season because of an ankle injury. Star point guard Jalen Brunson, the Knicks' second-best player, is dealing with hand and foot injuries that have caused him to miss seven of the last 15 games.

The Pacers should play hard. Their young players are fighting for jobs. Rick Carlisle is a good coach who demands effort. Indiana upset Oklahoma City at home two games ago and in its last game led the Cavaliers for most of the contest before falling apart during the final four minutes in a 10-point road loss this past Sunday. The Pacers were derailed in that game by Donovan Mitchell, who shot 14-of-25 from the field and scored 40 points. The Knicks don't have a shooter nearly the superstar caliber of Mitchell.

This is what Carlisle was quoted as saying: ''The way we're set up for our young guys, it really is a great opportunity for them. ''... This period of the last 2 1/2, three weeks is very valuable. This creates momentum into next season. We have momentum with our roster.''

Look for the Pacers to hang here if not pull out an outright victory.

(Editor's note: The line has dropped considerably since I posted this play in large part because Brunson has been ruled out. I still would strongly back the Pacers believing Indiana is very live to win this game straight-up.) 

The Lakers are peaking with LeBron James and Anthony Davis showing good chemistry since James' return from injury. LA has won three in a row. 
But this has caused this line to be inflated. The pesky Jazz can hang in at home. They have the third-best point spread mark in the NBA at 57.8 percent. 

Utah has covered 12 of the last 16 times when playing on one day's rest. The Jazz are capable of springing upsets at home. Just a little more than 2 1/2 weeks ago, Utah upset the Kings and Celtics.

The Lakers have a bigger game on tap tomorrow when they return to LA to play in-city division rival the Clippers. This could mean reduced minutes for James and the fragile Davis in tonight's game. 

The Nuggets are on the verge of clinching the top seed in the Western Conference. They don't feel a great deal of urgency to prove themselves during this final week of the regular season. So superstar Nikola Jokic will be sitting out this game, continuing to nurse tightness in his calf.

This opens the door for the home 'dog Rockets to stay within single digits.

This will be the Nuggets' fourth consecutive game without Jokic. During this span they lost to the Pelicans by 19 at home, lost by 7 to the Suns and edged the Warriors by two at home two days ago leaving them fat, happy and unmotivated for this matchup.

The Rockets are capable. They are 4-3 in their last seven home games. Among the teams the Rockets beat at home during this time frame were the Celtics, Lakers and Pelicans.

Orlando has the second-best point spread mark in the NBA covering 58 percent. Most of these covers came as underdogs. 

That's the case again here. 

Orlando is on the verge of being eliminated from the play-in race. This is last stand time for the Magic. That should ensure a strong effort. The Magic have been playing well going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning five of their past six games. 

The Cavaliers are all but locked into the No. 4 seed in the East. The Cavaliers aren't likely to be super motivated here. 

There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number.

Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively.

However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that.

Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams.

Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here.

I want the Bucks going for me at home in double-revenge against the 76ers and off their second-worst loss in franchise history following a 140-99 embarrassment to the Celtics. Milwaukee is 13-5 ATS following a non-point spread cover.

The prideful Bucks and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo should be highly motivated for this matchup.

The 76ers have won the past two meetings in the series. They stopped the Bucks' 16-game winning streak with a 133-130 on March 4.

Milwaukee has covered seven of the last 10 times it has hosted the 76ers.

There's only one way to play the total in this game - and it's not to the Over.

San Diego State is an Under machine. The Aztecs have gone Under in their last 12 games and 14 of their past 15! Florida Atlantic is a big-scoring team reliant on 3-point accuracy. But the Owls haven't faced a 3-point defense as good as San Diego State. The Aztecs have held foes to below 28 percent shooting from 3-point range.

Florida Atlantic ranks in the top 40 in defensive field goal percentage. The Owls have given up an average of fewer than 65 points during their seven post-season games, five of which went Under. San Diego State doesn't have a player who averages even 11 points a game in the NCAA Tournament.

The game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston. That's a football stadium where the Texans play. It's a huge structure with an unusual shooting backdrop for college basketball teams. It's a huge plus for the Under.

The Warriors came back from a 20-point deficit to beat the Pelicans in their last game. Up next for Golden State is a Sunday showdown against the Nuggets in Denver.

So you can't blame the Warriors if they look past the lowly Spurs in this matchup.

Golden State is 0-2 ATS this season laying more than 12 points. This is the most points the Warriors are laying all season in a game.

The Spurs have guaranteed themselves finishing in the bottom three giving them the best chances, along with the Pistons and Rockets, of landing the No. 1 pick in the draft. So the Spurs have motivation.

The backdoor should swing wide open for the Spurs if the Warriors were to build a huge lead because Steve Kerr would reduce the minutes of his star players.

I understand the Trail Blazers are fielding a JV lineup these days. But the situation sets up perfect for Portland to cover this large number.

Sacramento clinched a playoff spot following its last game this past Wednesday. That's a big deal for the Kings. They had gone 16 seasons without earning a postseason berth, the longest playoff drought in NBA history.

The team who the Kings beat Wednesday? None other than the Trail Blazers. And the Kings buried them, 120-80.

Hard to believe the Kings are going to have any intensity for this matchup after celebrating their playoff spot and knowing how bad their opponent is.

This is Portland's second-to-last home game. The Trail Blazers should put forth a great effort after Wednesday's humiliation.

Even though the Jazz are going to be missing Lauri Markkanen due to a hand injury, this spot sets up well for Utah.

Boston is off perhaps its finest victory of the season. The Celtics buried the host Bucks, 140-99, last night.

Now the Celtics return home to play this matchup without rest while laying a big number.

The Jazz are spunky and remain in playoff contention. They beat the Celtics in the team's earlier meeting this season and are quite capable of keeping the final score within single digits.

Utah has covered its last six road games. The Jazz also are 14-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage above .600.

These teams have star scorers, but have been playing strong defenses. That's reflected in the Pelicans going Under in six of their last seven games and the Under cashing in each of the Nuggets' last six games.

If you discount giving up 120 points to the high-scoring Warriors at Golden State, the Pelicans have surrendered only 97.4 points in their last five games. New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in scoring defense and first in 3-point percentage defense. The Under has cashed in seven of New Orleans' last eight road games.

Denver has held its last six foes to an average of 106.5 points. The Nuggets rank 10th in scoring defense and are No. 3 in 3-point percentage defense. They also are the No. 1 defensive rebounding club.

Don't look for the Pelicans to push pace. This marks their fourth game in six days and third in four days. They are playing, too, in Denver's high altitude.

During the past eight meetings in Denver between the two teams, the Under has cashed six times.

The teams just met this past Sunday in LA. It was LeBron James' first game following a 13-game absence due to a foot injury. James played fewer than 30 minutes, had some rust and Chicago beat the Lakers, 118-108. That halted a three-game Lakers win streak.

The Lakers haven't played since. The Bulls concluded their three-game West Coast trip against the Clippers this past Monday night. This marks the Bulls' fourth game in six days. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS the past six times when playing on two days rest.

I see the rested Lakers getting their revenge catching the more tired Bulls in a vulnerable spot with Chicago home for the first time in eight days. So does the oddsmaker opening the Lakers a road favorite.

James should be back to top form. The Bulls are 2-4 in their last six home contests with one of those victories coming against the Timberwolves in overtime.

The Lakers have covered in five of their last six visits to Chicago.

Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road.

The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor.

UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers.

Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games.

I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament.

Down their top three scorers, the Hornets have become a dead-nuts Under team especially away from home. Charlotte has gone Under in each of its last five games. The Under has cashed in 10 of the Hornets' last 11 road games.

LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier are out for Charlotte. Kelly Oubre has missed the last two games due to a shoulder injury. He's questionable here. Those are Charlotte's three top scorers. They lack firepower without those players especially inside at center with Kai Jones, Nick Richards and Mark Williams all rotating. The Hornets rank 27th in scoring, 29th in field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point percentage.

Oklahoma City is above average in defensive field goal percentage. The Thunder, though, haven't been doing much scoring either lately. They are averaging 108.7 points in their last four games.

During the past nine meetings between the two teams, the Under has cashed seven times.

Not only is this a terrible spot for the Timberwolves, but their two best players could be impacted.

Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards played major minutes helping the Timberwolves upset the Warriors, 99-96, at Golden State last night. It's asking a lot for the Timberwolves to pull off a second consecutive upset - and doing it without rest.

Towns has played just twice since missing 51 games with a calf injury. He's on a minutes restriction. He logged 32 minutes against Golden State, which is more than Minnesota wanted to use him. Edwards returned after missing three straight games with a sprained ankle. He logged 35 minutes.

The Timberwolves play at the Suns on Wednesday followed by a home game against the Lakers on Friday. So they could be thinking long-term and hold out Towns and Edwards not wanting to risk those stars getting hurt after playing the night before, especially considering how fast and up-tempo the Kings play. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times following a victory.

Sacramento is 23-15 at home. Minnesota is 17-20 on the road.

The Kings beat the Jazz by eight points at home in their last game two days ago minus De'Aaron Fox. He sat out with a hamstring injury. It's an injury that's not considered serious. Fox is questionable for this matchup. It's a nice bonus if Fox plays. But I still like the Kings to cover even if Fox doesn't suit up.

After beating the Nets twice on the road in close games, the Cavaliers are back home for the first time in nine days fat, happy and laying a boatload of points here. On deck for the Cavaliers is a road game against the Hawks Tuesday. 

So, yes, I consider this a flat spot for Cleveland. It could be hard for the Cavaliers to not be overconfident after the Rockets just were destroyed, 151-114, by the Grizzlies this past Friday.

The key question here is are the Rockets capable of hanging around with the Cavaliers? 

Given the circumstances and Houston being healthy except for rotation player, Jae'Sean Tate, I'd say yes. 

The Rockets are in rebuild mode, but they don't lack talent. They nearly upset the Grizzlies on Wednesday before the Grizzlies buried them in the rematch. Houston is 3-4 in its last seven games. The Rockets are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games. 

Houston shouldn't lack motivation following its humiliating loss to the Grizzlies. A strong effort by the Rockets should produce a comfortable point spread cover.  

Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense.

Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves.

Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament.

It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside.

Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points.

I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me.

The Kings are a huge success story this season with a 44-29 record, which translates to a .603 winning percentage.

Sacramento, however, has a losing record when its star point guard, De'Aaron Fox, doesn't play. Fox isn't likely to play here after suffering a hamstring injury in the Kings' 135-127 home win against the Suns last night.

The Jazz also played last night and were buried at home by the Bucks, 144-116. Because of the blowout, none of the Jazz players logged big minutes. The Kings, on the other hand, had three starters go big minutes in the win against the Suns.

Utah has proven resilient going 11-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Jazz also are 13-3 ATS when playing an opponent with a win percentage above .600.

Utah and Sacramento have met three times this season. The Kings won the first two games by a combined three points. The Jazz upset the Kings, 128-120, at home in the last meeting this past Monday. Utah won that game despite not having Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson. It's a plus if either of those two can play today with Markkanen being listed as questionable.

The Jazz have covered the past five times against Sacramento.

Florida Atlantic is on house money having never advanced this far. The Owls have a strong backcourt. But I'm going with Kansas State coming out of the Big 12 and having two star players, point guard Markquis Nowell and Keyonate Johnson. There might not have been a tougher conference in the country than the Big 12.

Nowell and Johnson give Kansas State the talent edge.

Nowell, averaging 17.2 points, 8.1 assists and 2.5 steals, has been the star of the tournament. He sparked the Wildcats past Michigan State and Kentucky.

Kansas State has covered 77 percent during their past 22 games against above .500 opponents going 17-5.

I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games.

I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here.

This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here.

The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago.

The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have injured DeMar DeRozan.

I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games.

I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here.

This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here.

The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago.

The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have DeMar DeRozan.

The line has gone up since I released this play as Damian Lillard is questionable and Jusuf Nurkic is doubtful. Given the iffy status of these key players, I would downgrade my selection from one unit to half a unit.

Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th.

Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game.

Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns.

The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.

The Bucks are not a team I normally want to go against. Not only do the Bucks have the best record in the NBA, but they've also covered 57 percent of the games.

But this spot sets up for Utah and the line value is there. The Jazz are a top-four team against the spread like Milwaukee, covering 57 percent of their games, too.

The Bucks haven't been on the road in 10 days. They have a huge look-ahead marquee game up next at the Nuggets - the West's No. 1 seed - on Saturday.

Utah had its two-game win streak snapped in a bad 12-point home loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago. Prior to that, Utah had covered six in a row. The Jazz should play hard here following that home humiliation. Utah has to play road games in four of its next five games.

The Bucks won't have Khris Middleton, arguably their second-best player. They may limit Giannis Antetokounmpo's minutes, too, knowing they have a monster matchup tomorrow.

Milwaukee traditionally hasn't fared well in Utah's high altitude. The Bucks are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games in Salt Lake City.

I'm going to buy low on the Knicks' defense here. New York has lost two in a row. The Knicks allowed 127 points to the Heat and 140 points to the Timberwolves in those losses.

Is New York's defense that bad?

No. The Knicks rank 12th in scoring defense, third in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in 3-point defense. They had allowed an average of 107.7 points during their four previous games going against the Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Clippers. Those teams all are superior offensively to the Magic, who rank 26th in scoring.

The Knicks will be focusing much harder on the defensive end here and they have a weak-scoring opponent. The Magic should have their intensity, too, still alive for the play-in tournament spot. Orlando relies more on defense - where it ranks 17th in scoring defense and eighth in 3-point defense - than offense to beat opponents.

This has been an Under series with the low side cashing the past four times.

Tom Izzo is a great coach. But Michigan State is getting too much respect here because of that. Kansas State is the better team. So I'll back the Wildcats in an underdog role. 

The Wildcats have been underrated on the line all season. They have covered 16 of the past 21 times versus above .500 opponents. 

Michigan State missed 14 of 16 3-point shots in its win against Marquette. The Spartans won't survive Kansas State if they don't shoot a whole lot better from beyond the arc. The Wildcats have the superior defense. They rank 13th in 3-point defense. 

The Spartans are averaging just 66.3 points in their last three games. 

Both team's defenses were solid during the regular season. But they've each stepped up during the postseason. Now, with ample time to prepare, expect both defenses to be at their finest.

Michigan State has a top-100 defense. The Spartans rank 33rd in 3-point defense. They've held their past three opponents to an average of 63.3 points. This includes holding Marquette to 21 points under its season average. Coaching guru Tom Izzo has plenty of time to work on defensive schemes designed to bother this specific opponent. Look for Michigan State to play at a slow tempo.

Kansas State has been a high level defensive team since last month. The Wildcats are giving up an average of 67 points during their last two games. They just held Kentucky six points under its season average.

Note the Madison Square Garden venue, too. This is a huge arena making it tough for teams unfamiliar with this arena to shoot a high percentage.

Maybe the Bulls have the 76ers' number this season. But I'll lay this short number to find out.

Chicago ended the 76ers' eight-game home win streak back on Jan. 6, winning 126-112. Joel Embiid didn't play in that game. The Bulls then halted the 76ers' eight-game win streak this past Monday, beating Philadelphian in double overtime, 109-105. 

That was the first time Embiid lost to the Bulls in 13 career games. 

The 76ers didn't play well at home against Chicago. They committed 21 turnovers and missed 26 of 36 shots from 3-point range. James Harden was uncharacteristically bad making just 2-of-14 shots from the field. 

Philadelphia is the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the NBA and also ranks No. 3 in defensive 3-point percentage. I'm betting on a bounce back game from the 76ers, who are 14 games better than the Bulls, in this short revenge spot. 

Ja Morant is set to make his return today for Memphis. That's great news for the Grizzlies. But it also could affect their concentration. This already is a letdown spot for the Grizzlies after they rallied in the fourth quarter to beat the Mavericks at home two days ago in a hotly contested game. 

Morant is expected to play. However, Memphis will be minus three key rotation players - suspended Dillon Brooks and injured Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. 

Don't be deceived by Houston's poor season record. The Rockets have gotten healthy and have been playing better going 5-5 in their last 10 games. They've covered in their last two road games, losing to the Pacers in overtime and rolling past the Spurs.  

Oddsmaker opened Vanderbilt the favorite. Wrong. Alabama-Birmingham is the better team. That's the way the marketplace has so far reacted and I'm in agreement.

Vanderbilt is home and off an impressive victory against big-name Michigan. So it's understandable why the oddsmaker opened the Commodores the favorite.

But UAB is hot - 14-2 in its last 16 games, including six straight wins - and holds several key edges.

The Blazers have a rebounding edge being one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Commodores are minus their top rebounder, injured Liam Robbins. UAB also has a deeper bench. This is important, too, because the Blazers play at an extremely fast tempo. Vanderbilt has a shorter rotation making it more vulnerable to getting worn down, especially this late in the season.

Both teams played Southern Mississippi. The Blazers buried Southern Mississippi, 88-60, in their first-round NIT game. Vanderbilt lost to Southern Mississippi, 60-48, at home early in the season.

UAB is coached by Andy Kennedy, who knows the SEC well having been the head coach at Mississippi. The Blazers are 2-0 versus SEC teams this season beating Georgia at a neutral site and South Carolina at home.

The total has been bet up to the point where I'm going Under.

This is an important game for both teams. So the defensive intensity should be there.

Oklahoma City is underrated defensively. Since Jan. 1, the Thunder have ranked 11th defensively. They rank 12th in defensive field goal percentage on the season.

The Thunder have allowed 108.2 points in their last five games. The Clippers are giving up an average of 107.2 points in their last five games. The Clippers are a top-10 defensive team.

The Under has cashed 74 percent of the time during the Clippers' past 39 home games.

The Kings have been a huge success story this season. But Utah is below-the-radar and this is a bad spot for the Kings, in action for the fourth time in six days and off three consecutive road wins beating the Bulls, Nets and Wizards.

The Jazz have covered five in a row. They just upset the Celtics at home two days ago. This is only the Jazz's second game in seven days so they are fresher than Sacramento.

Utah has double revenge going, too, The Kings nipped the Jazz twice, winning by a combined margin of three points.

The Jazz are 12-2 ATS the past 14 times they've played an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. They also are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings versus the Kings.

You have to go back to Feb. 13 to find the last time the Pacers lost consecutive games. It's not asking too much of Indiana to just beat Charlotte straight-up.

The Pacers were blown out by the 76ers this past Saturday. Indiana upset the Bucks on the road in its previous game. The Pacers are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS following a loss.

Unlike the Hornets, the Pacers still have a shot at earning the play-in spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana's best player, is out with a knee injury. But the Hornets also have a key injury with LaMelo Ball out. The Hornets are 2-7 since Ball suffered his season-ending ankle injury.

The Hornets are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS during their current homestand. They are the second worst home team in the league at 11-24.

The 76ers have won eight in a row. They've had this game circled for more than three months. Sparked by Zach LaVine's torrid shooting in a 41-point performance, the Bulls upset the 76ers, 126-112, as 5-point road 'dogs on Jan. 6. That snapped Philadelphia's 11-game home win streak. LaVine made 14 of 19 shots from the floor and hit 11 of 13 3-pointers.

I highly doubt LaVine comes close to repeating those numbers. The 76ers rank third defensively and fourth in defensive 3-point percentage. Nobody in the NBA is playing better than Joel Embiid. He's scored 30 or more points in nine consecutive games. Embiid should be rested and raring to go after sitting out the fourth quarter in the 76ers' 141-121 blowout victory against the Pacers this past Saturday.

The Bulls are 4-1 in their last five games, although they needed a lot of good fortune to pull out a double overtime home win against the Timberwolves two games ago. The Timberwolves lost Anthony Edwards early in the game. This is Chicago's third game in four days and fourth game in six days. It's the Bulls' first road game in nine days. The Bulls are 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight away matchups.

Philadelphia has been dominant at home with a 26-10 record. The 76ers have covered seven of the last nine times they've hosted Chicago. The 76ers had covered eight in a row against Chicago until that January defeat.

I like San Jose State to win this College Basketball Invitational matchup by double-digits. 

The Spartans play in the superior conference being in the Mountain West Conference compared to Radford, which finished third in the Big South Conference. San Jose State plays strong defense, is in better current form than Radford, is the superior rebounding team and much better at the free throw line.

San Jose State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Spartans have been playing tremendous defense giving up an average of 58.8 points during their last seven games. 

Radford averages fewer than 70 points a game. The Highlanders are 290th in free throw percentage at 68.8 percent. Radford has a losing record in its last seven games. 

San Jose State has been a reliable point spread team covering 20 of its last 28 games for 71 percent. 

Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU.

Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent.

I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy.

TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory.

The Pelicans won't be taking the 18-52 Rockets lightly. Just the opposite. Houston upset New Orleans, 114-112, at home this past Friday.

New Orleans may have suffered from overconfidence in building a 16-point second-half lead. It was the first time during the past six meetings Houston covered against New Orleans.

The Pelicans are fighting to make the postseason. They can't take a second straight loss to the lowly Rockets. New Orleans has the two best players on the court in Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas.

The Rockets are 5-14 in their last 19 games. They are on a season-best three-game win streak. The Pelicans have excelled in these spots, though. They are 18-7-1 ATS (72 percent) the last 26 times playing a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

Strength of schedule means a lot when getting involved in the College Basketball Invitational Tournament.

I have Tarleton State power-rated higher than Radford. Key reasons for that is the superior competition the Texans played along with being in the Western Athletic Conference. Radford, out of the Big South Conference, was 275th in strength of schedule.

Tarleton State faced the 16th-toughest non-conference schedule. The Texans beat Belmont, which won 21 games, and Boston College of the ACC. The Texans also played NCAA Tournament teams Arizona State, Baylor and Drake.

Radford also is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

Penn State has the right combination to upset Texas. The Nittany Lions are peaking at the perfect time going 9-2 in their last 11 games, covering in their past five matchup.

The Nittany Lions have a great guard in Jalen Pickett. They have veterans who don't get rattled and are tremendous as underdogs covering the past nine times in that role. Penn State also is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 SU the past seven times they've played a tournament team.

The pressure is all on Texas. The Longhorns haven't responded well before to this type of pressure going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry lacks NCAA Tournament experience. So that's a question mark.

Penn State is 21-8-1 (72 percent) ATS the past 30 times when playing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

Houston may be the top seed in the Midwest Regional, but the Cougars are in trouble against Auburn. The Cougars haven't been playing well going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. They lost by 10 points to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Tournament title game and only beat 16th-seeded Northern Kentucky, 63-52, this past Thursday in their first-round NCAA Tournament game.

Star guard Marcus Sasser aggravated a groin injury against Northern Kentucky. His status is questionable. Jamal Shead, Houston's top assists player, also isn't 100 percent with a knee injury.

Auburn is a tough opponent for the Cougars. The Tigers are playing excellent defense, not turning the ball over and are battle tested having dealt with upper tier competition being in the SEC.

Auburn beat Iowa, 83-75, to win its 11th straight opening-round NCAA Tournament game. The Tigers took No. 1 ranked Alabama to overtime on the road and beat Tennessee by nine points during their last two regular season games. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

Princeton successfully outrebounded and slowed down Arizona, 59-55, in their first-round NCAA Tournament victory. The Tigers certainly can do the same to Missouri.

The Tigers held Arizona to 28 points below its season average. Missouri held Utah State to 14 points below the Aggies' season average in a 76-65 first-round tournament win on Thursday. 

No way Princeton gets into a track meet with Missouri so I find this total too high especially because Princeton also is very strong on the defensive glass, ranking in the top 10 in defensive rebounding. 

The Under has cashed six of the last seven times Princeton has played on a neutral court. 

Missouri is underrated defensively in this matchup with its defensive statistics skewed playing in the SEC. Now the Tigers are facing an Ivy League opponent. 

Missouri held Utah State to 4-of-24 shooting from 3-point range. Princeton missed 21 of 25 3-point shots against Arizona. Princeton is a below average 3-point shooting team so the Tigers should not be able to hurt Missouri from beyond the arc. 

The 35-35 Timberwolves are a better team than the 31-37 Bulls. The question is can the Timberwolves beat the Bulls on the road? I'll take these points to find out.

Minnesota is in better current form and has been playing well on the road. The Bulls have lost their last three home games, falling to the Kings this past Wednesday, Pacers and Suns.

Chicago is 2-3 in its last five games. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS the past nine times following a loss.

Minnesota is off a tough, 104-102, home loss to the Celtics this past Wednesday. The Timberwolves were whisted for four technical fouls in the loss. They held Boston to 13 points below its season average.

Despite that tough loss, the Timberwolves are 4-3 in their last seven games. They've won their last three road games defeating the Hawks, Lakers and Clippers. They also are 4-0 ATS the past four times as a 'dog and are 9-3 ATS following a loss.

This is my Game of the Week.

Drake is a trendy pick to upset Miami in this NCAA Tournament matchup. But I don't see the Bulldogs pulling the upset even if the Hurricanes don't have Norchad Omier, their second-leading rebounder. He's questionable after suffering a knee injury against Duke last Friday.

Miami has many other scorers, including star guard and ACC Player of the Year, Isaiah Wong.

I respect Drake and the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake demolishing Bradley in the MVC Tournament title game, though, is less impressive after the Braves were buried by Big Ten disappointment Wisconsin in the NIT.

Miami is the superior team having beaten ranked opponents Virginia, Clemson and Pittsburgh along with scoring non-conference wins against Providence, Central Florida and Rutgers. Drake doesn't have that kind of resume.

It's going to take a lot of points for me to pick against the Bucks. But the combination of getting enough points and the situation put me on the Pacers.

The Bucks just concluded a three-game West Coast trip late Tuesday night. They beat the Kings on Monday in a physical game that turned ugly at the end when Brook Lopez had to play enforcer after Trey Lyles committed a cheap shot foul on Giannis Antetokounmpo during the final seconds. The Bucks then scored a satisfying victory against the Suns on Tuesday playing without rest.

Now Milwaukee returns home to face the Pacers. The Bucks can't be faulted for feeling good about themselves - and taking this opponent lightly. Milwaukee has beaten Indiana 10 straight times. The Pacers are coming off a 117-97 road loss to the Pistons this past Monday.

Indiana was trying to sweep the lowly Pistons without its best players. The Pacers defeated the Pistons this past Saturday, but couldn't do it again minus Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and backup point guard T.J. McConnell.

I expect all three of those players to be in Indiana's lineup today. They all practiced on Wednesday. The Pacers had covered four consecutive road games before that Monday defeat to the Pistons.

I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. 
Texas has the outstanding guard play, experience, depth and defense to make a serious run in the tournament. 

Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. 

The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. 

Utah State and Missouri are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. Utah State averages 79.1 points while the Tigers average 80.1 points.
So why get involved in this track meet? 

Because Missouri is the superior team. I largely base this opinion on the quality of opponents each team has played. Utah State finishing second in the Mountain West Conference doesn't impress me as much as Missouri finishing fourth in the SEC. Missouri also has a number of significant victories that Utah State lacks. 

The Tigers have the potential to go far in this tournament. Something I can't envision for Utah State. 

Missouri struggled against high-level, elite talent teams such as Alabama and Kansas. Utah State isn't nearly in that class. The Tigers scored numerous impressive victories that Utah State didn't achieve. I point to the Tigers scoring 93 points in an 18-point neutral court win against Illinois, scoring 78 points in a 17-point win against Iowa State and beating Tennessee twice, including posting 86 points against the Volunteers on the road. 

Missouri is 22-0 this season when scoring at least 70 points. Utah State allows an average of 70 points a game. The Aggies also rank 294th in defensive 3-point percentage. Missouri can exploit that. 

Magnificent at home, terrible on the road. That's been the Warriors' pattern all season and I don't see a deviation from it here. 

Golden State is off impressive home victories against the Bucks this past Saturday and against the Suns on Monday. But now they go on the road to face a peaking and rested Clippers squad. 

The Warriors are 7-26 away from home. They have lost their last eight road games. 

The Clippers have gotten in sync with recently acquired Russell Westbrook after a slow transition period. LA has won three in a row and is back to playing outstanding defense giving up an average of 97.5 points during their last two games. The Warriors average 12 fewer points per game when on the road. 

The Clippers last played on Saturday. So they should be well-rested and ready. 

The Lakers are playing without rest after burying the Pelicans last night and won't have LeBron James nor Anthony Davis.

But this spread is low enough to back LA against the Rockets, who are 3-14 in their last 17 games.

The Lakers are 5-0 ATS the past five times on zero rest. They've covered in five of their last six visits to Houston.

The Rockets are in a rare letdown spot after shocking the Celtics, 111-109, at home two days ago. The Lakers should have their full intensity knowing the Rockets beat the Celtics and not having their two superstar players to rely on.

This total is too high given the caliber of defenses these two teams have.

The 76ers rank No. 3 defensively in the NBA. They've held two of their last three opponents to fewer than 95 points.

Cleveland is the No. 1 defensive team in the league. If you discount the Cavaliers allowing 119 points to the Heat, they've given up an average of 102.2 points in their last five games.

Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State.

The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.

Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival.

The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points.

I'm going to ride Texas Southern's momentum and point spread record at neutral sites in this NCAA Tournament play-in game at Dayton, Ohio.

The Tigers upset both Alcorn State and Grambling on their way to winning their third straight Southwest Athletic Conference title. 

Texas Southern is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. 

Fairleigh Dickinson would not even be in this position if Merrimack had been eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament. 

Fairleigh Dickinson is 2-10 ATS in its last dozen neutral site contests. 

Two slow tempo teams. Two strong defensive clubs. Plus injuries. Factor all of that in and you have the basis for a strong Under play here.

Villanova is one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. The Wildcats are facing a Liberty defense that ranks eighth in the country surrendering only 60.2 points a game. Both teams are strong on the defensive glass.

The Wildcats have four players who score in double figures. Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore are two of them - and both could be out due to soreness and in Whitmore's case an eye injury.

Want to know who the top point spread team in the NBA is? It's Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 40-25-3 (60.5 percent) ATS. They also are 20-15 straight-up at home and catch the Nets in a heavy fatigue spot.

Both teams are playing well each going 5-1 in their last six games. But Oklahoma City is home and drawing what should be a tired Nets squad.

This is Brooklyn's fourth game in six days and the finale of a five-game, eight-day road swing. The Nets just upset the Nuggets, 122-120, two days ago. So a letdown could be in store.

I don't find it too much for the Thunder to simply win this game. They defeated the Nets, 112-102, on the road Jan. 15 during the first meeting.

Credit to Southeast Missouri State capturing the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as a No. 5 seed. But I don't see the Redhawks getting past Texas A&M Corpus Christi.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi is hot, winning 12 of its last 13 games, and are battle tested. The Islanders captured the Southland Conference Tournament title for the second year in a row. They also won the regular season championship. Southeast Missouri State last made the NCAA Tournament 23 years ago.

Both teams play fast and can score. The big difference is at the free throw line. Southeast Missouri State ranks 226th in free throw percentage. The Islanders rank fifth in the nation in free throw percentage at 79.1 percent.

This may be the only time I write this for the rest of the season, but the Spurs are actually fat and happy. They are coming off a shocking, 128-120, win against the Nuggets this past Friday.

Oklahoma City won't be overlooking the Spurs now for sure. The Thunder are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA. San Antonio is the worst defensive team in the league by far.

The Thunder are in the playoff picture. They've won four of their last five games, including beating the Pelicans, 110-96, in New Orleans last night. Fatigue shouldn't factor for the Thunder since they were idle the previous two days prior to that win.

The teams have met twice so far this season. The Thunder won those games by 16 and 8 points, respectively.

It's not a surprise that the last four Nets games that didn't go into overtime all went Under. Brooklyn has been first in defensive efficiency and 27th in offensive efficiency during its last five games.

Despite no Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the Nets have won four of their last five games. However, they run into an angry Nuggets team here. Denver has dropped two in a row with the latest being an embarrassing, 128-120, road loss to the lowly Spurs two days ago.

Expect some serious defensive intensity from the Nuggets, who rank 13th defensively and are fifth in 3-point defense.

An early start is a plus, too, for the Under.

I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. 

Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points.

Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game.

The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points.

Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation.

A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points.

Santa Barbara is riding a lot of momentum and had the easier path to reach this game. The Gauchos have won their last six games going 5-0-1 ATS.

Cal-State Fullerton had to go overtime to beat Hawaii this past Thursday and then upset Cal-Irvine in a tough game last night. 

These teams are close defensively, but the Gauchos shoot the ball far better than the Titans. 

The Suns don't need Kevin Durant to cover this small home point spread.

Phoenix is 5-1 in its last six games. The Suns' lone loss during this span came to the Bucks by three points on the road. Phoenix's average winning margin during this time frame is 15.8 points.

The Suns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Devin Booker is on fire averaging 38 points during his last four games.

The Kings are much improved. Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox are having superstar-type seasons. But the Kings are not an elite team. They are off a 122-117 home win against the Knicks two days ago where they were outrebounded, 58-42.

The Suns defeated the Kings, 120-109, in the team's last meeting on Feb. 14. Phoenix also beat the Kings on the road by five points in the first meeting this season.

Utah State averages nearly 80 points a game. But the Aggies are heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting.

San Diego State has an elite defense, especially when it comes to defending 3-pointers. The Aztecs rank 15th in the country in 3-point defense.

The Aztecs are in top defensive form, too. They just held San Jose State to 49 points. San Diego State is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games and 8-2-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents.

San Diego State beat Utah State in the last meeting. Look for the Aztecs to do it again here.

The Raptors hung in against the Nuggets this past Monday taking it to the final minute before losing. Toronto then was homered in a 108-100 loss to the Clippers two days ago. The Raptors shot just 38.5 percent from the floor in that game and the Clippers got to shoot 17 more free throws. Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George played for the Clippers in that matchup.

Now the hungry Raptors step down in class to face the Lakers, who remain without LeBron James.

The Lakers are fat and happy having won their last two games, both at home beating the Warriors and Grizzlies. D'Angelo Russell is expected back for LA. However, he figures to be rusty having missed the last six games.

The Raptors beat the Lakers earlier this season and have covered 13 of the last 16 times on the road against LA.

There were 123 points scored when these teams last met. That was no fluke. These teams play slow and points are at a premium.

That's especially so during the Big West Conference Tournament, which is played at the neutral site of the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nev.

All four Big West Tourney games went Under on Thursday, including Fullerton-Hawaii, which went to overtime. All together, the Under has cashed in five of the six Big West Tourney games.

Fullerton has not scored more than 62 points in regulation during its last four games. Irvine is averaging 53.3 points in its last three games.

I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. 

Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. 

Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. 
Grand Canyon was three games worse than Sam Houston State during the Western Athletic Conference regular season. The Lopes are 22-11 on the season. 

Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.  

The Knicks are tied for the best road record in the NBA at 20-12.

New York just suffered its first loss since Feb. 10, ambushed by the Hornets at home this past Tuesday. That ended the Knicks' nine-game win streak. The Knicks had just beaten the Celtics in double-overtime at Boston prior to meeting the Knicks.

The Knicks ran out of gas against the Hornets after leading by 16 points at halftime.

Now the Knicks have regrouped and gotten their focus back. This is the first of four games on the West Coast for the Knicks. I'm expecting a strong effort following that surprising loss to the double-digit underdog Hornets.

The Kings are expected to get De'Aaron Fox back from a hamstring injury. But the Knicks could get back their star point guard, Jalen Brunson, from a foot injury. He made the trip to Sacramento.

The Knicks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They also have covered 74 percent of their last 43 away games.

Washington State is peaking at the right time. The Cougars have won their last seven games. I like their chances against Oregon, which hasn't played in five days, in this Pac-12 Conference Tournament matchup.

Oregon has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 neutral site games.

The teams just met on Feb. 19 at Washington State and the Cougars won, 68-65.

Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road.

I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas.

Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games.

San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team.

Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside.

The Raptors rank seventh defensively giving up 112.1 points per game. That average shrinks to 108.1 points going by their last six games.

However, we have a high total here because the Clippers have been getting torched on the defensive end.

I see a renewed defensive commitment from the Clippers starting with this game.

This is the first time in nine games the Clippers are playing an Eastern Conference foe. Their last eight games have all been against Western Conference opponents, including the high-scoring Kings twice, Nuggets and Warriors.

Toronto ranks 23rd in scoring at 112.6 points. The Raptors don't play fast like many Western Conference teams.

The Clippers still rank 13th in the league defensively. The Under has cashed in 26 of their last 35 home games for 74 percent.

The Under also has cashed six of the past eight times these two teams have met.

Georgetown has failed to break 70 points during its last five games. The Hoyas managed only 59 points against Creighton in their last game.

Villanova gives up fewer than 68 points per game on the season. The Hoyas are going to have to earn their points the hard way as they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

This should be a very slow-paced game. Villanova plays at the slowest tempo of any Big East team.

Note, too, the venue: Madison Square Garden. This is a spacious arena with a history of Unders. The Under has cashed 69 percent of the time during the past 39 instances when there has been a total of 136 or higher at this arena in postseason college games.

I get that it's been a very disappointing season for Wisconsin, who are 17-13 and went 9-11 in the Big Ten. But the Badgers underdogs to Ohio State? No way.

The Buckeyes are 13-18, 5-15 in the Big Ten. They had a prolonged stretch where they went 1-14 in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes aren't winning five games in five days through the Big Ten Conference Tournament gauntlet to make the NCAA Tournament - and they know it.

Wisconsin is capable of beating any team, something Ohio State isn't. The Badgers defeated sixth-ranked Marquette and took third-ranked Kansas to overtime. The Badgers are a bubble team. They know they must win at least the next three games to stay in realistic contention for an NCAA Tournament bid.

The Badgers have an elite defense, giving up 63.8 points. That ranks them 33rd in the nation and is six points fewer per game than Ohio State allows.

Wisconsin holds a big coaching edge, too, with Greg Gard against Chris Holtmann.

The teams met once during the regular season. The Badgers beat the Buckeyes, 65-60, at Ohio State. Now they're playing at a neutral site.

This is a cheap price to get Stephen F. Austin in this first round Western Athletic Conference Tournament matchup. The Lumberjacks are 19-12 and the No. 6 seed in the tournament. They are a darkhorse to win the tourney.

Utah Tech is 13-18. The Trailblazers won just five of 18 conference games. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. 

Stephen F. Austin had no problem handling the Trailblazers when they played in Utah during the regular season, winning 85-72. 

This isn't the St. Peter's team of last season. The Peacocks haven't been awful as some might have thought they'd be in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but they are far from good after losing so much from last year. 

I don't see the Peacocks getting past Fairfield in this MAAC Tournament. 

St. Peter's has the worst offense in the conference. Nationally, the Peacocks rank 352nd in scoring, 361th in field goal percentage and 357th in 3-point percentage. 

Fairfield isn't much better offensively, but the Staggs play tough defense and just scored 92 points against Quinnipiac. St. Peter's is averaging 58.5 points in regulation during its last six years. 

The Stags defeated St. Peter's in both regular season meetings, winning 56-52 on the road on Jan. 15 and 67-55 at home on Dec. 3. 

The 12-17 Peacocks nipped Siena, 73-72, in overtime during their last game. St. Peter's, however, is 0-11 ATS after covering in their previous game. 

Fairfield is 19-7 ATS the past 26 times against below .500 foes.

The Knicks are generating headlines with nine wins in a row, the last coming in double-overtime on the road against the Celtics two days ago.

No one is talking about the Hornets. Not that they should be. Charlotte doesn't have injured star point guard LaMelo Ball and has dropped three in a row.

However, this situation lays out well for the Hornets to keep within double-digits of New York.

The Knicks are playing for the seventh time in 12 days. Their last four games have been against four long-time rivals - Celtics, Nets, Heat and Celtics again. They nipped the Heat and Celtics on the road by two points each in their last two games.

Now the Knicks return to Madison Square Garden fat and happy. They will go on a four-game West Coast trip that begins Thursday following this matchup.

This is a real flat spot for the Knicks, who could be without their own star point guard, Jalen Brunson. He's questionable with an ankle injury.

Despite not having Ball, the Hornets are capable. Charlotte usually plays with effort and energy for Steve Clifford. The Hornets have held four of their last five opponents to 106 points or fewer. Ball was their leading scorer. But Kelly Oubre Jr. and Terry Rozier both average more than 20 points a game. Dennis Smith is a capable veteran point guard. He's also a former Knick.

The Hornets have covered five of the last seven times when playing the Knicks on the road.

Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton may have said it best when asked about the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament, which begins today. ''We have our work cut out for us with who we are this particular year,'' Hamilton said.

That's certainly true. Florida State is 9-22. The Seminoles are 2-9 in their last 11 games. They have failed to cover in eight of their last nine games. I don't see them upsetting Georgia Tech in this ACC tournament opener.

The Yellow Jackets have gotten hot, winning five of the last six games. They have covered in each of their last eight games.

Georgia Tech has momentum and its confidence up. Skidding Florida State just lost by 22 points to Virginia Tech as a 10-point road 'dog this past Saturday.

Backing the Yellow Jackets on the money line should be a safe play.

The Raptors are a mediocre Eastern Conference club that has a losing record on the season, mainly because of a 12-20 road mark.

Only once have the Raptors played an above .500 team during their last 10 games. That was a road game against the Cavaliers. Cleveland buried the Raptors, 118-93.

Denver is 29-4 at home. The Nuggets have lost once at home since Dec. 6. Denver has won each of its last seven home games by nine or more points.

So why should this home matchup be any different?

It shouldn't. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and that includes covering against the Wizards in overtime this past Saturday.

The Raptors have failed to cover on the road against the Nuggets in six of their last seven visits. Playing in Denver's thin mountain air isn't going to help them coming off a Saturday night overtime game that was played on the East Coast.

The Nuggets have covered each of the last six times they've hosted an opponent with a below .500 road record.

Idaho State is 11-20. I'm surprised the Bengals even have that many wins because they are terrible.

Montana has underachieved in going 16-13, 10-7 in the Big Sky. But the Grizzlies have a huge talent edge here along with momentum. The fourth-seeded Grizzlies are very live to capture the Big Sky Conference Tournament.

Montana is 7-1 in its last eight games. Idaho State is 2-5 in its last seven games. Josh Bannan and Aanen Moody give the Grizzlies the two best players on the court.

The Grizzlies were 2-0 against Idaho State during the regular season winning 84-55 at home and 69-61 on the road.

Don't overthink this one. Louisiana Lafayette is 25-7 and 13-5 in the Sun Belt Conference. South Alabama is 19-15 and 9-9 in the Sun Belt. Lafayette has the superior record and is the better team.

So I like the Ragin' Cajuns to win this game. That's why I'm going with them on the money line.

Lafayette won both regular season meetings against South Alabama beating the Jaguars, 79-76 and 74-64. The Ragin Cajuns average nearly eight more points per game than the Jaguars.

Barring the unlikely possibility of winning the Big Ten Conference Tournament, Wisconsin better win this game if it has any chance of earning an NCAA Tourney bid.

The Badgers are 16-13 with a lot of close losses, including a 63-61 home loss to fifth-ranked Purdue this past Thursday.

Wisconsin should take care of business against Minnesota, a team it has defeated 14 of the last 16 times, including the past five. The Badgers are 5-0 ATS following a loss.

Minnesota, 2-16 in the Big Ten, is in a rare fat-and-happy mood having ended a 12-game losing streak with a 75-74 home upset win against Rutgers this past Thursday.

After missing the past 11 games with a knee injury, Stephen Curry is set to return here against the Lakers. Aside from Curry likely to be rusty, the Lakers are in must-win mode and catch the Warriors fat and happy after Golden State just swept its five-game homestand.

So this spot sets up for the underdog Lakers especially given the Warriors' Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde home/road performances. Golden State is 27-7 at home and 7-23 on the road.

The Lakers can't afford to lose home games like they did to the Timberwolves this past Friday. They did get Anthony Davis back for that. I'm expecting a much more focused and intense effort from the Lakers.

The Warriors are playing for the seventh time in 11 days. Every one of their five victories during their recent homestand were come-from-behind wins with four of those games involving double-digit comebacks.

Golden State isn't going to be able to turn the switch on and off like that being on the road, where it has lost the past five times going 0-4-1 ATS.

After missing the past 11 games with a knee injury, Stephen Curry is set to return here against the Lakers. Aside from Curry likely to be rusty, the Lakers are in must-win mode and catch the Warriors fat and happy after Golden State just swept its five-game homestand.

So this spot sets up for the underdog Lakers especially given the Warriors' Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde home/road performances. Golden State is 27-7 at home and 7-23 on the road.

The Lakers can't afford to lose home games like they did to the Timberwolves this past Friday. They did get Anthony Davis back for that. I'm expecting a much more focused and intense effort from the Lakers.

The Warriors are playing for the seventh time in 11 days. Every one of their five victories during their recent homestand were come-from-behind wins with four of those games involving double-digit comebacks.

Golden State isn't going to be able to turn the switch on and off like that being on the road, where it has lost the past five times going 0-4-1 ATS.

Surprised the Raptors opened an away favorite against the Wizards after just losing to Washington, 119-108, on the road this past Thursday?

Don't be.

The oddsmaker knows what he is doing. I see Toronto bouncing back in this shortest of revenge spots.

The Raptors were flat against the Wizards. They played terribly and Toronto coach Nick Nurse let them know about that. He questioned his team's energy and competitive juices.

Nurse is a good coach. He knows how to make proper adjustments and to motivate his team. I'm looking for the Raptors to put forth a strong effort this time around.

The Raptors have covered the past four times after losing by double-digits.

Back when UNLV was playing much better, the Rebels defeated Nevada, 68-62, at home on Jan. 28. Since then UNLV only has managed to beat three of the four worst teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels were a no-show in their last game, a 91-66 home loss to Utah State this past Wednesday.

If it wasn't for a last-second tip-in in a 54-53 home win against Air Force, the Rebels would be 0-5 in their last five games.

So I don't see the Rebels staying with revenge-minded Nevada.

The 22-8 Wolf Pack need this game to have a good chance of landing an NCAA Tournament berth. Nevada is a perfect 15-0 at home. The Wolf Pack will have a sellout crowd at home on senior night playing their arch-rival. They are the superior team catching a downtrodden UNLV team. Expect a double-digit Wolf Pack victory.

The handicap here is very straightforward. Denver is extremely tough at home and in short revenge. The Grizzlies are terrible on the road.

The Nuggets are 28-4 at home. Their last loss at Ball Arena came on Dec. 6. They've been idle since Tuesday and have revenge for an 18-point road loss to the Grizzlies suffered six days ago.

The Grizzlies are 12-18 on the road. Until they beat the bottom-feeding Rockets in Houston two days ago, the Grizzlies had lost eight consecutive away games going 1-7 ATS in those matchups.

I'm very surprised Kansas City opened as a 'dog to Nebraska Omaha in this Summit League Tournament matchup.

UMKC is 11-20. Nebraska Omaha is 8-22. The Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 11 games. UMKC beat them in both meetings during the regular season, 64-61, on Jan. 26 and 75-59 on the road Dec. 31.

The Kangaroos give up nearly nine points fewer per game than Nebraska Omaha. They also are a much stronger rebounding team than the Mavericks.

UMKC has the best player on the court, too, in Rayquawndis Mitchell.

Mercer has become much improved defensively. So this is a good matchup for the Bears because The Citadel is very bad offensively and not good either on defense giving up nearly 75 points a game.

The teams just met on Feb. 25. Mercer held the Bulldogs to 50 points in a 22-point victory. Mercer also defeated The Citadel in the first meeting, 74-65, on the road.

It's clear who the better team is here.

Cal Irvine is 36 teams above UC Riverside in the KenPom rankings. I agree with that assessment. I have the Anteaters as the better team, too. They destroyed the Highlanders, 83-64, as 6 1/2-point home favorites on Feb. 11. 

Cal Irvine has the second-best offense in the Big West and surrenders fewer points per game than UC Riverside. 

The Anteaters also have dominated the Highlanders winning and covering during the past five meetings. They've also gone 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS the last eight times when playing at UC Riverside.